The leverage of demographic dynamics on carbon dioxide emissions: does age structure matter?

PubMed

Zagheni, Emilio

2011-02-01

This article provides a methodological contribution to the study of the effect of changes in population age structure on carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions. First, I propose a generalization of the IPAT equation to a multisector economy with an age-structured population and discuss the insights that can be obtained in the context of stable population theory. Second, I suggest a statistical model of household consumption as a function of household size and age structure to quantitatively evaluate the extent of economies of scale in consumption of energy-intensive goods, and to estimate age-specific profiles of consumption of energy-intensive goods and of CO(2) emissions. Third, I offer an illustration of the methodologies using data for the United States. The analysis shows that per-capita CO(2) emissions increase with age until the individual is in his or her 60s, and then emissions tend to decrease. Holding everything else constant, the expected change in U.S. population age distribution during the next four decades is likely to have a small, but noticeable, positive impact on CO(2) emissions.

Generating a Dynamic Synthetic Population – Using an Age-Structured Two-Sex Model for Household Dynamics

PubMed Central

Namazi-Rad, Mohammad-Reza; Mokhtarian, Payam; Perez, Pascal

2014-01-01

Generating a reliable computer-simulated synthetic population is necessary for knowledge processing and decision-making analysis in agent-based systems in order to measure, interpret and describe each target area and the human activity patterns within it. In this paper, both synthetic reconstruction (SR) and combinatorial optimisation (CO) techniques are discussed for generating a reliable synthetic population for a certain geographic region (in Australia) using aggregated- and disaggregated-level information available for such an area. A CO algorithm using the quadratic function of population estimators is presented in this paper in order to generate a synthetic population while considering a two-fold nested structure for the individuals and households within the target areas. The baseline population in this study is generated from the confidentialised unit record files (CURFs) and 2006 Australian census tables. The dynamics of the created population is then projected over five years using a dynamic micro-simulation model for individual- and household-level demographic transitions. This projection is then compared with the 2011 Australian census. A prediction interval is provided for the population estimates obtained by the bootstrapping method, by which the variability structure of a predictor can be replicated in a bootstrap distribution. PMID:24733522

Host population structure and treatment frequency maintain balancing selection on drug resistance

PubMed Central

Baskerville, Edward B.; Colijn, Caroline; Hanage, William; Fraser, Christophe; Lipsitch, Marc

2017-01-01

It is a truism that antimicrobial drugs select for resistance, but explaining pathogen- and population-specific variation in patterns of resistance remains an open problem. Like other common commensals, Streptococcus pneumoniae has demonstrated persistent coexistence of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains. Theoretically, this outcome is unlikely. We modelled the dynamics of competing strains of S. pneumoniae to investigate the impact of transmission dynamics and treatment-induced selective pressures on the probability of stable coexistence. We find that the outcome of competition is extremely sensitive to structure in the host population, although coexistence can arise from age-assortative transmission models with age-varying rates of antibiotic use. Moreover, we find that the selective pressure from antibiotics arises not so much from the rate of antibiotic use per se but from the frequency of treatment: frequent antibiotic therapy disproportionately impacts the fitness of sensitive strains. This same phenomenon explains why serotypes with longer durations of carriage tend to be more resistant. These dynamics may apply to other potentially pathogenic, microbial commensals and highlight how population structure, which is often omitted from models, can have a large impact. PMID:28835542

Age structure and cooperation in coevolutionary games on dynamic network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Zilong; Hu, Zhenhua; Zhou, Xiaoping; Yi, Jingzhang

2015-04-01

Our proposed model imitates the growth of a population and describes the age structure and the level of cooperation in games on dynamic network with continuous changes of structure and topology. The removal of nodes and links caused by age-dependent attack, together with the nodes addition standing for the newborns of population, badly ruins Matthew effect in this coevolutionary process. Though the network is generated by growth and preferential attachment, it degenerates into random network and it is no longer heterogeneous. When the removal of nodes and links is equal to the addition of nodes and links, the size of dynamic network is maintained in steady-state, so is the low level of cooperation. Severe structure variation, homogeneous topology and continuous invasion of new defection jointly make dynamic network unsuitable for the survival of cooperator even when the probability with which the newborn players initially adopt the strategy cooperation is high, while things change slightly when the connections of newborn players are restricted. Fortunately, moderate interactions in a generation trigger an optimal recovering process to encourage cooperation. The model developed in this paper outlines an explanation of the cohesion changes in the development process of an organization. Some suggestions for cooperative behavior improvement are given in the end.

The influence of climatic variability on local population dynamics of Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, Janice E.; Turner, R.M.

2002-01-01

This study investigated correlations among climatic variability, population age structure, and seedling survival of a dominant Sonoran Desert tree, Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde), at Tucson, Arizona, USA. A major goal was to determine whether wet years promote seedling establishment and thereby determine population structure. Plant age was estimated from basal circumference for a sample of 980 living and dead trees in twelve 0.5-ha plots. Ages ranged from 1 to 181 years. Age frequency distribution showed that the population is in decline. Most (51.2%) of the 814 living trees were 40-80 years old; only 6.5% were younger than 20 years. The average age of the 166 dead trees was 78 years. Fifty-nine percent of dead trees were aged 60-100 years. Survival of newly emerged seedlings was monitored for 7 years in a 557-m2 permanent plot. Mean survival in the 1st year of life was 1.7%. Only 2 of 1,008 seedlings lived longer than 1 year. Length of survival was not correlated with rainfall. Residual regeneration, an index of the difference between predicted and observed cohort size, showed that regeneration was high during the first half of the twentieth century and poor after the mid-1950s. Trends in regeneration did not reflect interannual variation in seasonal temperature or rain before 1950, that is, in the years before urban warming. Taken together, the seedling study and the regeneration analysis suggest that local population dynamics reflect biotic factors to such an extent that population age structure might not always be a reliable clue to past climatic influences.

[Population dynamics and armed violence in Colombia, 1985-2010].

PubMed

Salaya, Hernán Eduardo; Rodríguez, Jesús

2014-09-01

Describe changes in the population structure of Colombia's municipalities in relation to internal displacement in response to armed violence. A descriptive ecological study was carried out. Secondary sources were consulted, taken from the Consolidated Registry of Displaced Population and from the National Administrative Department of Statistics, to calculate expulsion and reception rates for population displaced by violence from 2002 to 2010. Based on these rates, four groups were created of municipalities in the extreme quartile for each rate during the entire period, which were classified as high expulsion, low expulsion, high reception, and low reception. Subsequently, population pyramids and structure indicators were constructed for each group of municipalities for two comparative reference years (1985 and 2010). Municipalities with high expulsion or reception rates experienced a slower epidemiological transition, with lower mean ages and aging indices. The high expulsion group had the least regression, based on the Sundbärg index. In the high reception group, the masculinity ratio decreased the most, especially among the economically active population, and it had the highest population growth. Population dynamics in Colombia have been affected by armed violence and changes in these dynamics are not uniform across the country, leading to important social, economic, and cultural consequences. This study is useful for decision-making and public policy making.

A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

2017-01-01

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance that comparative analyses are colored by model details rather than general principles

[Analysis and design structure of an aging society].

PubMed

Fujimasa, Iwao

2012-01-01

On observing present Japanese society, we can find deep gaps between the present system and its probable future. One of the gaps may be due to the misconception that future societal make up is not definite. The aim of the current study was to investigate a future societal structure and to develop methods of adding a timed dimension policy to the societal structure. This is named "A theory of structuralism economics". We developed 3 societal structure projection engines and applied a system of dynamics language to estimate the future total population of Japan. The Japan total population reached a maximum in 2005, and thereafter depopulation begun. The populations in the younger working age group (from 25 to 54 years old) and those in the elderly working age group (from 55 to 84 years old) became almost equal in 2010. As economic growth rate depends upon an increase in the working population, the increase in national income rate of Japan approached over 10% per year between 1950 to 1970. The increased working age population of the same period exceeded 2.5% annually. However, after 2005 depopulation began in Japan. In future, national income will decrease proportional to the working age population, but personal national income will hold almost unchanged. We propose a new strategy for future society structure. The working age should be extended by 10 years. Labor power will come to exceed 60% of the population and will thereafter become stable.

Effects of resource quality on the population dynamics of the Indian meal moth Plodia interpunctella and its granulovirus.

PubMed

McVean, Ross I; Sait, Steve M; Thompson, David J; Begon, Mike

2002-03-01

Although the Plodia interpunctella-granulovirus system is one of the most studied models for insect-pathogen interactions, there are relatively few precise data on the dynamics of the virus in coexisting populations of these two organisms. Previous work has suggested that resource quality, in terms of the diet supplied to P. interpunctella, has a strong effect on the population dynamics of host and pathogen. Here we investigate the impact of resource-dependent host patterns of abundance on pathogen dynamics and prevalence. In the laboratory, three populations of P. interpunctella feeding on a good quality food and infected with a granulovirus were compared with three populations also infected with a granulovirus but feeding on poor quality food. Populations feeding on good quality food produced larger adult moths, and had greater numbers of adult moths, healthy larvae, and virus-infected larvae. A higher proportion of larvae in these good quality populations were infected with virus, and adult moths exhibited cyclic fluctuations in abundance, unlike those on poor quality food. This cyclic behaviour was shown to be associated with cycles in the age structure of the larval population. Previous theoretical work suggests that these cycles may result from asymmetric competition between young and old larvae. Cyclic fluctuations in the proportion of infected larvae, that occurred on good, but not on poor quality food, were also shown to be related to cycles in the age structure of the larval population.

The evolution of labile traits in sex- and age-structured populations.

PubMed

Childs, Dylan Z; Sheldon, Ben C; Rees, Mark

2016-03-01

Many quantitative traits are labile (e.g. somatic growth rate, reproductive timing and investment), varying over the life cycle as a result of behavioural adaptation, developmental processes and plastic responses to the environment. At the population level, selection can alter the distribution of such traits across age classes and among generations. Despite a growing body of theoretical research exploring the evolutionary dynamics of labile traits, a data-driven framework for incorporating such traits into demographic models has not yet been developed. Integral projection models (IPMs) are increasingly being used to understand the interplay between changes in labile characters, life histories and population dynamics. One limitation of the IPM approach is that it relies on phenotypic associations between parents and offspring traits to capture inheritance. However, it is well-established that many different processes may drive these associations, and currently, no clear consensus has emerged on how to model micro-evolutionary dynamics in an IPM framework. We show how to embed quantitative genetic models of inheritance of labile traits into age-structured, two-sex models that resemble standard IPMs. Commonly used statistical tools such as GLMs and their mixed model counterparts can then be used for model parameterization. We illustrate the methodology through development of a simple model of egg-laying date evolution, parameterized using data from a population of Great tits (Parus major). We demonstrate how our framework can be used to project the joint dynamics of species' traits and population density. We then develop a simple extension of the age-structured Price equation (ASPE) for two-sex populations, and apply this to examine the age-specific contributions of different processes to change in the mean phenotype and breeding value. The data-driven framework we outline here has the potential to facilitate greater insight into the nature of selection and its consequences in settings where focal traits vary over the lifetime through ontogeny, behavioural adaptation and phenotypic plasticity, as well as providing a potential bridge between theoretical and empirical studies of labile trait variation. © 2016 The Authors Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

How Life History Can Sway the Fixation Probability of Mutants

PubMed Central

Li, Xiang-Yi; Kurokawa, Shun; Giaimo, Stefano; Traulsen, Arne

2016-01-01

In this work, we study the effects of demographic structure on evolutionary dynamics when selection acts on reproduction, survival, or both. In contrast to the previously discovered pattern that the fixation probability of a neutral mutant decreases while the population becomes younger, we show that a mutant with a constant selective advantage may have a maximum or a minimum of the fixation probability in populations with an intermediate fraction of young individuals. This highlights the importance of life history and demographic structure in studying evolutionary dynamics. We also illustrate the fundamental differences between selection on reproduction and selection on survival when age structure is present. In addition, we evaluate the relative importance of size and structure of the population in determining the fixation probability of the mutant. Our work lays the foundation for also studying density- and frequency-dependent effects in populations when demographic structures cannot be neglected. PMID:27129737

Stand structure and dynamics of sand pine differ between the Florida panhandle and peninsula

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drewa, P.B.; Platt, W.J.; Kwit, C.; Doyle, T.W.

2008-01-01

Size and age structures of stand populations of numerous tree species exhibit uneven or reverse J-distributions that can persist after non-catastrophic disturbance, especially windstorms. Among disjunct populations of conspecific trees, alternative distributions are also possible and may be attributed to more localized variation in disturbance. Regional differences in structure and demography among disjunct populations of sand pine (Pinus clausa (Chapm. ex Engelm.) Vasey ex Sarg.) in the Florida panhandle and peninsula may result from variation in hurricane regimes associated with each of these populations. We measured size, age, and growth rates of trees from panhandle and peninsula populations and then compiled size and age class distributions. We also characterized hurricanes in both regions over the past century. Size and age structures of panhandle populations were unevenly distributed and exhibited continuous recruitment; peninsula populations were evenly sized and aged and exhibited only periodic recruitment. Since hurricane regimes were similar between regions, historical fire regimes may have been responsible for regional differences in structure of sand pine populations. We hypothesize that fires were locally nonexistent in coastal panhandle populations, while periodic high intensity fires occurred in peninsula populations over the past century. Such differences in local fire regimes could have resulted in the absence of hurricane effects in the peninsula. Increased intensity of hurricanes in the panhandle and current fire suppression patterns in the peninsula may shift characteristics of sand pine stands in both regions. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Population dynamics of the sand shiner (notropis stramineus) in non-wadeable rivers of Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, C.D.; Neebling, T.E.; Quist, M.C.

2010-01-01

The sand shiner (Notropis stramineus) is a common cyprinid found throughout the Great Plains region of North America that plays an important ecological role in aquatic systems. This study was conducted to describe population dynamics of sand shiners including age structure, growth, mortality, and recruitment variability in 15 non-wadeable rivers in Iowa. Fish were collected during June-August (2007-2008) using a modified Missouri trawl, a seine, and boat-mounted electrofishing. Scales were removed for age and growth analysis. A total of 3,443 fish was sampled from 15 populations across Iowa, of which 676 were aged. Iowa's sand shiner populations consisted primarily of age-1 fish (53% of all fish sampled), followed by age-2 fish (30%), age-0 fish (15%), and age-3 fish (2%). Sand shiners grew an average of 38.5 mm (SE = 5.7) during their first year, 13.8 mm (4.5) during their second year, and 9.0 mm (6.9) during their third year. Total annual mortality varied from 35.0% to 92.3% among populations with a mean of 77.9% (0.2). Incremental mortality rates were 84.5% (0.2) between age 1 and age 2, and 92.0% (0.1) between age 2 and age 3. Recruitment was highly variable, as indicated by a mean recruitment variation index of-0.12 (0.54). Overall, the sand shiner was characterized by relatively low mean age, fast growth, high mortality, and high recruitment variability. Indices of sand shiner population dynamics were poorly correlated with habitat characteristics.

Spatiotemporal variation in survival rates: implications for population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Armitage, Kenneth B; Blumstein, Daniel T; Oli, Madan K

2006-04-01

Spatiotemporal variation in age-specific survival rates can profoundly influence population dynamics, but few studies of vertebrates have thoroughly investigated both spatial and temporal variability in age-specific survival rates. We used 28 years (1976-2003) of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data from 17 locations to parameterize an age-structured Cormack-Jolly-Seber model, and investigated spatial and temporal variation in age-specific annual survival rates of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris). Survival rates varied both spatially and temporally, with survival of younger animals exhibiting the highest degree of variation. Juvenile survival rates varied from 0.52 +/- 0.05 to 0.78 +/- 0.10 among sites and from 0.15 +/- 0.14 to 0.89 +/- 0.06 over time. Adult survival rates varied from 0.62 +/- 0.09 to 0.80 +/- 0.03 among sites, but did not vary significantly over time. We used reverse-time CMR models to estimate the realized population growth rate (lamda), and to investigate the influence of the observed variation in age-specific survival rates on lamda. The realized growth rate of the population closely covaried with, and was significantly influenced by, spatiotemporal variation in juvenile survival rate. High variability in juvenile survival rates over space and time clearly influenced the dynamics of our study population and is also likely to be an important determinant of the spatiotemporal variation in the population dynamics of other mammals with similar life history characteristics.

Age structure is critical to the population dynamics and survival of honeybee colonies.

PubMed

Betti, M I; Wahl, L M; Zamir, M

2016-11-01

Age structure is an important feature of the division of labour within honeybee colonies, but its effects on colony dynamics have rarely been explored. We present a model of a honeybee colony that incorporates this key feature, and use this model to explore the effects of both winter and disease on the fate of the colony. The model offers a novel explanation for the frequently observed phenomenon of 'spring dwindle', which emerges as a natural consequence of the age-structured dynamics. Furthermore, the results indicate that a model taking age structure into account markedly affects the predicted timing and severity of disease within a bee colony. The timing of the onset of disease with respect to the changing seasons may also have a substantial impact on the fate of a honeybee colony. Finally, simulations predict that an infection may persist in a honeybee colony over several years, with effects that compound over time. Thus, the ultimate collapse of the colony may be the result of events several years past.

Computer simulation of the coffee leaf miner using sexual Penna aging model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Oliveira, A. C. S.; Martins, S. G. F.; Zacarias, M. S.

2008-01-01

Forecast models based on climatic conditions are of great interest in Integrated Pest Management (IPM) programs. The success of these models depends, among other factors, on the knowledge of the temperature effect on the pests’ population dynamics. In this direction, a computer simulation was made for the population dynamics of the coffee leaf miner, L. coffeella, at different temperatures, considering experimental data relative to the pest. The age structure was inserted into the dynamics through sexual Penna Model. The results obtained, such as life expectancy, growth rate and annual generations’ number, in agreement to those in laboratory and field conditions, show that the simulation can be used as a forecast model for controlling L. coffeella.

Population and labour force projections for 27 European countries, 2002-052: impact of international migration on population ageing: Projections de population et de population active pour 27 pays européens 2002-052: impact de la migration internationale sur le vieillissement de la population.

PubMed

Bijak, Jakub; Kupiszewska, Dorota; Kupiszewski, Marek; Saczuk, Katarzyna; Kicinger, Anna

2007-03-01

Population and labour force projections are made for 27 selected European countries for 2002-052, focussing on the impact of international migration on population and labour force dynamics. Starting from single scenarios for fertility, mortality and economic activity, three sets of assumptions are explored regarding migration flows, taking into account probable policy developments in Europe following the enlargement of the EU. In addition to age structures, various support ratio indicators are analysed. The results indicate that plausible immigration cannot offset the negative effects of population and labour force ageing.

DNA-based approach to aging martens (Martes americana and M. caurina)

Treesearch

Jonathan N. Pauli; John P. Whiteman; Bruce G. Marcot; Terry M. McClean; Merav Ben-David

2011-01-01

Demographic structure is central to understanding the dynamics of animal populations. However, determining the age of free-ranging mammals is difficult, and currently impossible when sampling with noninvasive, genetic-based approaches. We present a method to estimate age class by combining measures of telomere lengths with other biologically meaningful covariates in a...

Estimating demographic contributions to effective population size in an age-structured wild population experiencing environmental and demographic stochasticity.

PubMed

Trask, Amanda E; Bignal, Eric M; McCracken, Davy I; Piertney, Stuart B; Reid, Jane M

2017-09-01

A population's effective size (N e ) is a key parameter that shapes rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, thereby influencing evolutionary processes and population viability. However, estimating N e , and identifying key demographic mechanisms that underlie the N e to census population size (N) ratio, remains challenging, especially for small populations with overlapping generations and substantial environmental and demographic stochasticity and hence dynamic age-structure. A sophisticated demographic method of estimating N e /N, which uses Fisher's reproductive value to account for dynamic age-structure, has been formulated. However, this method requires detailed individual- and population-level data on sex- and age-specific reproduction and survival, and has rarely been implemented. Here, we use the reproductive value method and detailed demographic data to estimate N e /N for a small and apparently isolated red-billed chough (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax) population of high conservation concern. We additionally calculated two single-sample molecular genetic estimates of N e to corroborate the demographic estimate and examine evidence for unobserved immigration and gene flow. The demographic estimate of N e /N was 0.21, reflecting a high total demographic variance (σ2dg) of 0.71. Females and males made similar overall contributions to σ2dg. However, contributions varied among sex-age classes, with greater contributions from 3 year-old females than males, but greater contributions from ≥5 year-old males than females. The demographic estimate of N e was ~30, suggesting that rates of increase of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation per generation will be relatively high. Molecular genetic estimates of N e computed from linkage disequilibrium and approximate Bayesian computation were approximately 50 and 30, respectively, providing no evidence of substantial unobserved immigration which could bias demographic estimates of N e . Our analyses identify key sex-age classes contributing to demographic variance and thus decreasing N e /N in a small age-structured population inhabiting a variable environment. They thereby demonstrate how assessments of N e can incorporate stochastic sex- and age-specific demography and elucidate key demographic processes affecting a population's evolutionary trajectory and viability. Furthermore, our analyses show that N e for the focal chough population is critically small, implying that management to re-establish genetic connectivity may be required to ensure population viability. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Longevity of clonal plants: why it matters and how to measure it

PubMed Central

de Witte, Lucienne C.; Stöcklin, Jürg

2010-01-01

Background Species' life-history and population dynamics are strongly shaped by the longevity of individuals, but life span is one of the least accessible demographic traits, particularly in clonal plants. Continuous vegetative reproduction of genets enables persistence despite low or no sexual reproduction, affecting genet turnover rates and population stability. Therefore, the longevity of clonal plants is of considerable biological interest, but remains relatively poorly known. Scope Here, we critically review the present knowledge on the longevity of clonal plants and discuss its importance for population persistence. Direct life-span measurements such as growth-ring analysis in woody plants are relatively easy to take, although, for many clonal plants, these methods are not adequate due to the variable growth pattern of ramets and difficult genet identification. Recently, indirect methods have been introduced in which genet size and annual shoot increments are used to estimate genet age. These methods, often based on molecular techniques, allow the investigation of genet size and age structure of whole populations, a crucial issue for understanding their viability and persistence. However, indirect estimates of clonal longevity are impeded because the process of ageing in clonal plants is still poorly understood and because their size and age are not always well correlated. Alternative estimators for genet life span such as somatic mutations have recently been suggested. Conclusions Empirical knowledge on the longevity of clonal species has increased considerably in the last few years. Maximum age estimates are an indicator of population persistence, but are not sufficient to evaluate turnover rates and the ability of long-lived clonal plants to enhance community stability and ecosystem resilience. In order to understand the dynamics of populations it will be necessary to measure genet size and age structure, not only life spans of single individuals, and to use such data for modelling of genet dynamics. PMID:20880935

A spatial age-structured model for describing sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Jason M.; Wilberg, Michael J.; Adams, Jean V.; Jones, Michael L.

2013-01-01

The control of invasive sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) presents large scale management challenges in the Laurentian Great Lakes. No modeling approach has been developed that describes spatial dynamics of lamprey populations. We developed and validated a spatial and age-structured model and applied it to a sea lamprey population in a large river in the Great Lakes basin. We considered 75 discrete spatial areas, included a stock-recruitment function, spatial recruitment patterns, natural mortality, chemical treatment mortality, and larval metamorphosis. Recruitment was variable, and an upstream shift in recruitment location was observed over time. From 1993–2011 recruitment, larval abundance, and the abundance of metamorphosing individuals decreased by 80, 84, and 86%, respectively. The model successfully identified areas of high larval abundance and showed that areas of low larval density contribute significantly to the population. Estimated treatment mortality was less than expected but had a large population-level impact. The results and general approach of this work have applications for sea lamprey control throughout the Great Lakes and for the restoration and conservation of native lamprey species globally.

Age structure is critical to the population dynamics and survival of honeybee colonies

PubMed Central

Betti, M. I.; Wahl, L. M.

2016-01-01

Age structure is an important feature of the division of labour within honeybee colonies, but its effects on colony dynamics have rarely been explored. We present a model of a honeybee colony that incorporates this key feature, and use this model to explore the effects of both winter and disease on the fate of the colony. The model offers a novel explanation for the frequently observed phenomenon of ‘spring dwindle’, which emerges as a natural consequence of the age-structured dynamics. Furthermore, the results indicate that a model taking age structure into account markedly affects the predicted timing and severity of disease within a bee colony. The timing of the onset of disease with respect to the changing seasons may also have a substantial impact on the fate of a honeybee colony. Finally, simulations predict that an infection may persist in a honeybee colony over several years, with effects that compound over time. Thus, the ultimate collapse of the colony may be the result of events several years past. PMID:28018627

Anomalous Growth of Aging Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grebenkov, Denis S.

2016-04-01

We consider a discrete-time population dynamics with age-dependent structure. At every time step, one of the alive individuals from the population is chosen randomly and removed with probability q_k depending on its age, whereas a new individual of age 1 is born with probability r. The model can also describe a single queue in which the service order is random while the service efficiency depends on a customer's "age" in the queue. We propose a mean field approximation to investigate the long-time asymptotic behavior of the mean population size. The age dependence is shown to lead to anomalous power-law growth of the population at the critical regime. The scaling exponent is determined by the asymptotic behavior of the probabilities q_k at large k. The mean field approximation is validated by Monte Carlo simulations.

Integrating data from multiple sources for insights into demographic processes: Simulation studies and proof of concept for hierarchical change-in-ratio models.

PubMed

Nilsen, Erlend B; Strand, Olav

2018-01-01

We developed a model for estimating demographic rates and population abundance based on multiple data sets revealing information about population age- and sex structure. Such models have previously been described in the literature as change-in-ratio models, but we extend the applicability of the models by i) using time series data allowing the full temporal dynamics to be modelled, by ii) casting the model in an explicit hierarchical modelling framework, and by iii) estimating parameters based on Bayesian inference. Based on sensitivity analyses we conclude that the approach developed here is able to obtain estimates of demographic rate with high precision whenever unbiased data of population structure are available. Our simulations revealed that this was true also when data on population abundance are not available or not included in the modelling framework. Nevertheless, when data on population structure are biased due to different observability of different age- and sex categories this will affect estimates of all demographic rates. Estimates of population size is particularly sensitive to such biases, whereas demographic rates can be relatively precisely estimated even with biased observation data as long as the bias is not severe. We then use the models to estimate demographic rates and population abundance for two Norwegian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations where age-sex data were available for all harvested animals, and where population structure surveys were carried out in early summer (after calving) and late fall (after hunting season), and population size is counted in winter. We found that demographic rates were similar regardless whether we include population count data in the modelling, but that the estimated population size is affected by this decision. This suggest that monitoring programs that focus on population age- and sex structure will benefit from collecting additional data that allow estimation of observability for different age- and sex classes. In addition, our sensitivity analysis suggests that focusing monitoring towards changes in demographic rates might be more feasible than monitoring abundance in many situations where data on population age- and sex structure can be collected.

A dynamic model of the marriage market-Part 2: simulation of marital states and application to empirical data.

PubMed

Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L

2013-09-01

A dynamic, two-sex, age-structured marriage model is presented. Part 1 focused on first marriage only and described a marriage market matching algorithm. In Part 2 the model is extended to include divorce, widowing, and remarriage. The model produces a self-consistent set of marital states distributed by age and sex in a stable population by means of a gender-symmetric numerical method. The model is compared with empirical data for the case of Zambia. Furthermore, a dynamic marriage function for a changing population is demonstrated in simulations of three hypothetical scenarios of elevated mortality in young to middle adulthood. The marriage model has its primary application to simulation of HIV-AIDS epidemics in African countries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predatory senescence in ageing wolves.

PubMed

MacNulty, Daniel R; Smith, Douglas W; Vucetich, John A; Mech, L David; Stahler, Daniel R; Packer, Craig

2009-12-01

It is well established that ageing handicaps the ability of prey to escape predators, yet surprisingly little is known about how ageing affects the ability of predators to catch prey. Research into long-lived predators has assumed that adults have uniform impacts on prey regardless of age. Here we use longitudinal data from repeated observations of individually-known wolves (Canis lupus) hunting elk (Cervus elaphus) in Yellowstone National Park to demonstrate that adult predatory performance declines with age and that an increasing ratio of senescent individuals in the wolf population depresses the rate of prey offtake. Because this ratio fluctuates independently of population size, predatory senescence may cause wolf populations of equal size but different age structure to have different impacts on prey populations. These findings suggest that predatory senescence is an important, though overlooked, factor affecting predator-prey dynamics.

Predatory senescence in ageing wolves

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacNulty, D.R.; Smith, D.W.; Vucetich, J.A.; Mech, L.D.; Stahler, D.R.; Packer, C.

2009-01-01

It is well established that ageing handicaps the ability of prey to escape predators, yet surprisingly little is known about how ageing affects the ability of predators to catch prey. Research into long-lived predators has assumed that adults have uniform impacts on prey regardless of age. Here we use longitudinal data from repeated observations of individually-known wolves (Canis lupus) hunting elk (Cervus elaphus) in Yellowstone National Park to demonstrate that adult predatory performance declines with age and that an increasing ratio of senescent individuals in the wolf population depresses the rate of prey offtake. Because this ratio fluctuates independently of population size, predatory senescence may cause wolf populations of equal size but different age structure to have different impacts on prey populations. These findings suggest that predatory senescence is an important, though overlooked, factor affecting predator-prey dynamics. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Predatory senescence in aging wolves

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacNulty, Daniel R.; Smith, Douglas W.; Vucetich, John A.; Mech, L. David; Stahler, Daniel R.; Packer, Craig

2009-01-01

It is well established that ageing handicaps the ability of prey to escape predators, yet surprisingly little is known about how ageing affects the ability of predators to catch prey. Research into long-lived predators has assumed that adults have uniform impacts on prey regardless of age. Here we use longitudinal data from repeated observations of individually-known wolves (Canis lupus) hunting elk (Cervus elaphus) in Yellowstone National Park to demonstrate that adult predatory performance declines with age and that an increasing ratio of senescent individuals in the wolf population depresses the rate of prey offtake. Because this ratio fluctuates independently of population size, predatory senescence may cause wolf populations of equal size but different age structure to have different impacts on prey populations. These findings suggest that predatory senescence is an important, though overlooked, factor affecting predator-prey dynamics.

Altruistic aging: The evolutionary dynamics balancing longevity and evolvability.

PubMed

Herrera, Minette; Miller, Aaron; Nishimura, Joel

2017-04-01

Altruism is typically associated with traits or behaviors that benefit the population as a whole, but are costly to the individual. We propose that, when the environment is rapidly changing, senescence (age-related deterioration) can be altruistic. According to numerical simulations of an agent-based model, while long-lived individuals can outcompete their short lived peers, populations composed of long-lived individuals are more likely to go extinct during periods of rapid environmental change. Moreover, as in many situations where other cooperative behavior arises, senescence can be stabilized in a structured population.

A Conceptual Model of Riparian Forest Response to Channel Abandonment on Meandering Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stella, J. C.; Hayden, M. K.; Battles, J. J.; Piegay, H.; Dufour, S.; Fremier, A. K.

2008-12-01

On alluvial rivers, hydrogeomorphic regimes exert a primary control on the regeneration of pioneer riparian forest stands and thus their composition and age structure. Seasonal flow patterns provide the necessary conditions for recruitment, and channel migration drives patterns of forest stand dynamics. To date, studies of pioneer riparian forest structure have focused primarily on point bar habitats, where woody vegetation typically recruits with decadal frequency in even-aged bands parallel to the river margin. However, there are indications that other recruitment pathways exist and can be important from a population and conservation perspective. On floodplains where channel migration occurs as infrequent cutoff or avulsion events, the geometry and position of the old channel relative to the new one determines rates and patterns of sedimentation and flood frequency. These conditions provide a brief opportunity for forest recruitment, and geomorphic evolution of the former channel habitat in turn influences forest dynamics. The population implications of this alternative forest regeneration pathway depend on the temporal dynamics of channel abandonment versus the rate of lateral channel migration. Preliminary analysis indicates that the geographic scope of this ecogeomorphological process is sizable. Along the Sacramento River (CA) and Ain River (France), for example, cottonwood-dominated stands associated with abandoned channels tend to be less frequent in number (38% of all stands) but larger in area (accounting for 53% of all forest area) relative to forest stands associated with laterally migrating point bars. Dendrochronological analysis confirms that tree ages in floodplain stands corresponds to the first decade after channel abandonment. These data indicate that changes to the rate and scale of channel abandonment due to human and climatic alterations to the flow regime will likely influence riparian corridor-wide tree population structure and forest dynamics.

Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) population dynamics and bamboo (subfamily Bambusoideae) life history: a structured population approach to examining carrying capacity when the prey are semelparous

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, J.; Ackleh, A.S.; Leonard, B.P.; Wang, Hongfang

1999-01-01

The giant panda, Ailuropoda melanoleuca, is a highly specialized Ursid whose diet consists almost entirely of various species of bamboo. Bamboo (Bambusoideae) is a grass subfamily whose species often exhibit a synchronous semelparity. Synchronous semelparity can create local drops in carrying capacity for the panda. We modeled the interaction of pandas and their bamboo food resources with an age structured panda population model linked to a natural history model of bamboo biomass dynamics based on literature values of bamboo biomass, and giant panda life history dynamics. This paper reports the results of our examination of the interaction between pandas and their bamboo food resource and its implications for panda conservation. In the model all panda populations were well below the carrying capacity of the habitat. The giant panda populations growth was most sensitive to changes in birth rates and removal of reproductive aged individuals. Periodic starvation that has been documented in conjunction with bamboo die-offs is probably related to the inability to move to other areas within the region where bamboo is still available. Based on the results of this model, giant panda conservation should concentrate on keeping breeding individuals in the wild, keep corridors to different bamboo species open to pandas, and to concentrate research on bamboo life history.

Optimal control of Atlantic population Canada geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauser, C.E.; Runge, M.C.; Cooch, E.G.; Johnson, F.A.; Harvey, W.F.

2007-01-01

Management of Canada geese (Branta canadensis) can be a balance between providing sustained harvest opportunity while not allowing populations to become overabundant and cause damage. In this paper, we focus on the Atlantic population of Canada geese and use stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal harvest strategy over a range of plausible models for population dynamics. There is evidence to suggest that the population exhibits significant age structure, and it is possible to reconstruct age structure from surveys. Consequently the harvest strategy is a function of the age composition, as well as the abundance, of the population. The objective is to maximize harvest while maintaining the number of breeding adults in the population between specified upper and lower limits. In addition, the total harvest capacity is limited and there is uncertainty about the strength of density-dependence. We find that under a density-independent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at the highest acceptable abundance. However if harvest capacity is limited, then the optimal long-term breeding population size is lower than the highest acceptable level, to reduce the risk of the population growing to an unacceptably large size. Under the proposed density-dependent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at an intermediate level between the bounds on acceptable population size; limits to harvest capacity have little effect on the optimal long-term population size. It is clear that the strength of density-dependence and constraints on harvest significantly affect the optimal harvest strategy for this population. Model discrimination might be achieved in the long term, while continuing to meet management goals, by adopting an adaptive management strategy.

On the probabilistic structure of water age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porporato, Amilcare; Calabrese, Salvatore

2015-05-01

The age distribution of water in hydrologic systems has received renewed interest recently, especially in relation to watershed response to rainfall inputs. The purpose of this contribution is first to draw attention to existing theories of age distributions in population dynamics, fluid mechanics and stochastic groundwater, and in particular to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation and its generalizations and solutions. A second and more important goal is to clarify that, when hydrologic fluxes are modeled by means of time-varying stochastic processes, the age distributions must themselves be treated as random functions. Once their probabilistic structure is obtained, it can be used to characterize the variability of age distributions in real systems and thus help quantify the inherent uncertainty in the field determination of water age. We illustrate these concepts with reference to a stochastic storage model, which has been used as a minimalist model of soil moisture and streamflow dynamics.

Demography of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens): 1974-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, Rebecca L.; Udevitz, Mark S.

2015-01-01

Global climate change may fundamentally alter population dynamics of many species for which baseline population parameter estimates are imprecise or lacking. Historically, the Pacific walrus is thought to have been limited by harvest, but it may become limited by global warming-induced reductions in sea ice. Loss of sea ice, on which walruses rest between foraging bouts, may reduce access to food, thus lowering vital rates. Rigorous walrus survival rate estimates do not exist, and other population parameter estimates are out of date or have well-documented bias and imprecision. To provide useful population parameter estimates we developed a Bayesian, hidden process demographic model of walrus population dynamics from 1974 through 2006 that combined annual age-specific harvest estimates with five population size estimates, six standing age structure estimates, and two reproductive rate estimates. Median density independent natural survival was high for juveniles (0.97) and adults (0.99), and annual density dependent vital rates rose from 0.06 to 0.11 for reproduction, 0.31 to 0.59 for survival of neonatal calves, and 0.39 to 0.85 for survival of older calves, concomitant with a population decline. This integrated population model provides a baseline for estimating changing population dynamics resulting from changing harvests or sea ice.

The Impact of Policies Influencing the Demography of Age-Structured Populations: Lessons from Academies of Sciences

PubMed Central

Riosmena, Fernando; Winkler-Dworak, Maria; Prskawetz, Alexia; Feichtinger, Gustav

2013-01-01

In this paper, we assess the role of policies aimed at regulating the number and age structure of elections on the size and age structure of five European Academies of Sciences. We show the recent pace of ageing and the degree of variation in policies across them and discuss the implications of different policies on the size and age structure of academies. We also illustrate the potential effect of different election regimes (fixed vs. linked) and age structures of election (younger vs. older) by contrasting the steady-state dynamics of different projections of Full Members in each academy into 2070 and measuring the size and age-compositional effect of changing a given policy relative to a status quo policy scenario. Our findings suggest that academies with linked intake (i.e., where the size of the academy below a certain age is fixed and the number of elections is set to the number of members becoming that age) may be a more efficient approach to curb growth without suffering any ageing trade-offs relative to the faster growth of academies electing a fixed number of members per year. We further discuss the implications of our results in the context of stable populations open to migration. PMID:23843677

Population structure and dynamics of northern pike and smallmouth bass in Coeur d’Alene Lake, Idaho.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walrath, John D.; Quist, Michael C.; Firehammer, Jon A.

2015-01-01

Numerous species have been introduced to Coeur d'Alene Lake, Idaho over the last century, but minimal research has been completed to understand their population dynamics. The objective of this study was to describe the population demographics and dynamics of northern pike (Esox lucius) and smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), two important nonnative sport fishes in the system to provide information that will assist with guiding management decisions. The oldest northern pike was age 7 and the oldest smallmouth bass was age 11. Populations of both species exhibited very stable recruitment with a recruitment coefficient of determination of 0.99 for northern pike and 0.98 for smallmouth bass. Total annual mortality was estimated as 66% for northern pike and 42% for smallmouth bass. Growth of northern pike in Coeur d'Alene Lake was comparable to the 50–75th percentiles of growth exhibited by lentic northern pike populations across North America. Northern pike in Coeur d'Alene Lake were most similar to populations in the north-central and northeast United States with fast growth rates and short life spans. In contrast, smallmouth bass grew slowly and generally fell within the 5th percentile of lentic smallmouth bass populations in North America. Smallmouth bass in Coeur d'Alene Lake were similar to other populations in northern regions of the United States displaying slow growth rates with high longevity. Results of this study provide important insight on nonnative northern pike and smallmouth bass population dynamics.

On the probabilistic structure of water age: Probabilistic Water Age

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porporato, Amilcare; Calabrese, Salvatore

We report the age distribution of water in hydrologic systems has received renewed interest recently, especially in relation to watershed response to rainfall inputs. The purpose of this contribution is first to draw attention to existing theories of age distributions in population dynamics, fluid mechanics and stochastic groundwater, and in particular to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation and its generalizations and solutions. A second and more important goal is to clarify that, when hydrologic fluxes are modeled by means of time-varying stochastic processes, the age distributions must themselves be treated as random functions. Once their probabilistic structure is obtained, it canmore » be used to characterize the variability of age distributions in real systems and thus help quantify the inherent uncertainty in the field determination of water age. Finally, we illustrate these concepts with reference to a stochastic storage model, which has been used as a minimalist model of soil moisture and streamflow dynamics.« less

On the probabilistic structure of water age: Probabilistic Water Age

DOE PAGES

Porporato, Amilcare; Calabrese, Salvatore

2015-04-23

We report the age distribution of water in hydrologic systems has received renewed interest recently, especially in relation to watershed response to rainfall inputs. The purpose of this contribution is first to draw attention to existing theories of age distributions in population dynamics, fluid mechanics and stochastic groundwater, and in particular to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation and its generalizations and solutions. A second and more important goal is to clarify that, when hydrologic fluxes are modeled by means of time-varying stochastic processes, the age distributions must themselves be treated as random functions. Once their probabilistic structure is obtained, it canmore » be used to characterize the variability of age distributions in real systems and thus help quantify the inherent uncertainty in the field determination of water age. Finally, we illustrate these concepts with reference to a stochastic storage model, which has been used as a minimalist model of soil moisture and streamflow dynamics.« less

Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.

1979-01-01

The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

Structure of the New England herring gull population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kadlec, J.A.; Drury, W.H.

1968-01-01

Measurements of the rates of population increase, reproduction, and mortality together with an observed age ratio, were used to analyze the population of the Herring Gull in New England. Data from sporadic censuses prior to this study, aerial censuses by the authors, and National Audubon Society Christmas Bird Count indicated that the New England breeding population has been doubling every 12 to 15 years since the early 1900's. This increase has involved founding new colonies and expanding the breeding range There is evidence that 15 to 30% of the adults do not breed in any given year. Sixty-one productivity measurements on 43 islands from 1963 through 1966, involving almost 13,000 nests, showed that from 0.8 to 1.4 young/breeding pair/year is the usual range of rate of production. The age distribution in the population was determined by classifying Herring Gulls by plumage category on an aerial census of the coast from Tampico, Mexico, to Cape Sable, Nova Scotia. Of the 622,000 gulls observed, 68% were adults, 17% were second- and third-year birds, and 15% were first-year birds. Mortality rates derived from band recovery data were too high to be consistent with the observed rate of population growth, productivity, and age structure. Loss of bands increasing to the rate of about 20%/year 5 years after banding eliminates most of the discrepancy. The age structure and rate of population increase indicate a mortality rate of 4 to 9% for gulls 2 years old or older, compared with the 25 to 30% indicated by band recoveries. The population structure we have developed fits everything we have observed about Herring Gull population dynamics, except mortality based on band recoveries.

A fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model for population viability analysis of fish: Lower Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Albers, Janice; Green, Nicholas; Moran, Edward H.

2017-01-01

We develop a fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model suitable for population viability analysis (PVA) of fish and demonstrate its use with the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) of the Lower Missouri River as an example. The model incorporates three levels of variance: parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level, temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations over time) applied at the time-step level, and implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) applied within the time-step level. We found that population dynamics were most sensitive to survival rates, particularly age-2+ survival, and to fecundity-at-length. The inclusion of variance (unpartitioned or partitioned), stocking, or both generally decreased the influence of individual parameters on population growth rate. The partitioning of variance into parameter and temporal components had a strong influence on the importance of individual parameters, uncertainty of model predictions, and quasiextinction risk (i.e., pallid sturgeon population size falling below 50 age-1+ individuals). Our findings show that appropriately applying variance in PVA is important when evaluating the relative importance of parameters, and reinforce the need for better and more precise estimates of crucial life-history parameters for pallid sturgeon.

Factors affecting unintentional harvesting selectivity in a monomorphic species.

PubMed

Bunnefeld, Nils; Baines, David; Newborn, David; Milner-Gulland, E J

2009-03-01

1. Changes in the abundance of populations have always perplexed ecologists but long-term studies are revealing new insights into population dynamic processes. Long-term data are often derived from harvest records although many wild populations face high harvesting pressures leading to overharvesting and extinction. Additionally, harvest records used to describe population processes such as fluctuations in abundance and reproductive success often assume a random off-take. 2. Selective harvesting based on phenotypic characteristics occurs in many species (e.g. trophy hunting, fisheries) and has important implications for population dynamics, conservation and management. 3. In species with no marked morphological differences between the age and sex classes, such as the red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus during the shooting season, hunters cannot consciously select for a specific sex or age class during the shooting process but harvest records could still give a biased reflection of the population structure because of differences in behaviour between age and sex classes. 4. This study compared age and sex ratios in the bag with those in the population before shooting for red grouse at different points in the shooting season and different densities, which has rarely been tested before. 5. More young than old grouse were shot at large bag sizes and vice versa for small bag sizes than would be expected from the population composition before shooting. The susceptibility of old males to shooting compared to females increased with bag size and was high at the first time the area was shot but decreased with the number of times an area was harvested. 6. These findings stress that the assumption made in many studies that harvest records reflect the age and sex ratio of the population and therefore reflect productivity can be misleading. 7. In this paper, as in the literature, it is also shown that number of grouse shot reflects grouse density and therefore that hunting selectivity might influence population dynamics in a cyclic species. 8. The study is not only relevant for red grouse but applies to systems showing interactions between selective harvesting and wider ecological processes, such as age- and sex-related parasitism and territoriality, which may drive population fluctuations.

Age-specific infectious period shapes dynamics of pneumonia in bighorn sheep.

PubMed

Plowright, Raina K; Manlove, Kezia R; Besser, Thomas E; Páez, David J; Andrews, Kimberly R; Matthews, Patrick E; Waits, Lisette P; Hudson, Peter J; Cassirer, E Frances

2017-10-01

Superspreading, the phenomenon where a small proportion of individuals contribute disproportionately to new infections, has profound effects on disease dynamics. Superspreading can arise through variation in contacts, infectiousness or infectious periods. The latter has received little attention, yet it drives the dynamics of many diseases of critical public health, livestock health and conservation concern. Here, we present rare evidence of variation in infectious periods underlying a superspreading phenomenon in a free-ranging wildlife system. We detected persistent infections of Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae, the primary causative agent of pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), in a small number of older individuals that were homozygous at an immunologically relevant genetic locus. Interactions among age-structure, genetic composition and infectious periods may drive feedbacks in disease dynamics that determine the magnitude of population response to infection. Accordingly, variation in initial conditions may explain divergent population responses to infection that range from recovery to catastrophic decline and extirpation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Ecotoxicology and spatial modeling in population dynamics: an illustration with brown trout.

PubMed

Chaumot, Arnaud; Charles, Sandrine; Flammarion, Patrick; Auger, Pierre

2003-05-01

We developed a multiregion matrix population model to explore how the demography of a hypothetical brown trout population living in a river network varies in response to different spatial scenarios of cadmium contamination. Age structure, spatial distribution, and demographic and migration processes are taken into account in the model. Chronic or acute cadmium concentrations affect the demographic parameters at the scale of the river range. The outputs of the model constitute population-level end points (the asymptotic population growth rate, the stable age structure, and the asymptotic spatial distribution) that allow comparing the different spatial scenarios of contamination regarding the demographic response at the scale of the whole river network. An analysis of the sensitivity of these end points to lower order parameters enables us to link the local effects of cadmium to the global demographic behavior of the brown trout population. Such a link is of broad interest in the point of view of ecotoxicological management.

Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China.

PubMed

Zhao, Yang; Jia, Xin; Lee, Harry F; Zhao, Hongqiang; Cai, Shuliang; Huang, Xianjin

2017-01-01

It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368-1911). Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span) of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China.

Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China

PubMed Central

Zhao, Yang; Lee, Harry F.; Zhao, Hongqiang; Cai, Shuliang; Huang, Xianjin

2017-01-01

It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368–1911). Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span) of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China. PMID:28792976

Evolution of stochastic demography with life history tradeoffs in density-dependent age-structured populations.

PubMed

Lande, Russell; Engen, Steinar; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-10-31

We analyze the stochastic demography and evolution of a density-dependent age- (or stage-) structured population in a fluctuating environment. A positive linear combination of age classes (e.g., weighted by body mass) is assumed to act as the single variable of population size, [Formula: see text], exerting density dependence on age-specific vital rates through an increasing function of population size. The environment fluctuates in a stationary distribution with no autocorrelation. We show by analysis and simulation of age structure, under assumptions often met by vertebrate populations, that the stochastic dynamics of population size can be accurately approximated by a univariate model governed by three key demographic parameters: the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity in the average environment, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], and the environmental variance in population growth rate, [Formula: see text] Allowing these parameters to be genetically variable and to evolve, but assuming that a fourth parameter, [Formula: see text], measuring the nonlinearity of density dependence, remains constant, the expected evolution maximizes [Formula: see text] This shows that the magnitude of environmental stochasticity governs the classical trade-off between selection for higher [Formula: see text] versus higher [Formula: see text] However, selection also acts to decrease [Formula: see text], so the simple life-history trade-off between [Formula: see text]- and [Formula: see text]-selection may be obscured by additional trade-offs between them and [Formula: see text] Under the classical logistic model of population growth with linear density dependence ([Formula: see text]), life-history evolution in a fluctuating environment tends to maximize the average population size. Published under the PNAS license.

Future scenarios for energy consumption and carbon emissions due to demographic transitions in Chinese households

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Biying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Kei, Gomi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

2018-02-01

Population dynamics has been acknowledged as a key concern for projecting future emissions, partly because of the huge uncertainties related to human behaviour. However, the heterogeneous shifts of human behaviour in the process of demographic transition are not well explored when scrutinizing the impacts of population dynamics on carbon emissions. Here, we expand the existing population-economy-environment analytical structure to address the above limitations by representing the trend of demographic transitions to small-family and ageing society. We specifically accommodate for inter- and intra-life-stage variations in time allocation and consumption in the population rather than assuming a representative household, and take a less developed province, Sichuan, in China as the empirical context. Our results show that the demographic shift to small and ageing households will boost energy consumption and carbon emissions, driven by the joint variations in time-use and consumption patterns. Furthermore, biased pictures of changing emissions will emerge if the time effect is disregarded.

BIOACCUMULATION AND AQUATIC SYSTEM SIMULATOR (BASS) USER'S MANUAL BETA TEST VERSION 2.1

EPA Science Inventory

BASS (Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator) is a Fortran 95 simulation program that predicts the population and bioaccumulation dynamics of age-structured fish assemblages that are exposed to hydrophobic organic pollutants and class B and borderline metals that complex wi...

Dynamic network communication as a unifying neural basis for cognition, development, aging, and disease.

PubMed

Voytek, Bradley; Knight, Robert T

2015-06-15

Perception, cognition, and social interaction depend upon coordinated neural activity. This coordination operates within noisy, overlapping, and distributed neural networks operating at multiple timescales. These networks are built upon a structural scaffolding with intrinsic neuroplasticity that changes with development, aging, disease, and personal experience. In this article, we begin from the perspective that successful interregional communication relies upon the transient synchronization between distinct low-frequency (<80 Hz) oscillations, allowing for brief windows of communication via phase-coordinated local neuronal spiking. From this, we construct a theoretical framework for dynamic network communication, arguing that these networks reflect a balance between oscillatory coupling and local population spiking activity and that these two levels of activity interact. We theorize that when oscillatory coupling is too strong, spike timing within the local neuronal population becomes too synchronous; when oscillatory coupling is too weak, spike timing is too disorganized. Each results in specific disruptions to neural communication. These alterations in communication dynamics may underlie cognitive changes associated with healthy development and aging, in addition to neurological and psychiatric disorders. A number of neurological and psychiatric disorders-including Parkinson's disease, autism, depression, schizophrenia, and anxiety-are associated with abnormalities in oscillatory activity. Although aging, psychiatric and neurological disease, and experience differ in the biological changes to structural gray or white matter, neurotransmission, and gene expression, our framework suggests that any resultant cognitive and behavioral changes in normal or disordered states or their treatment are a product of how these physical processes affect dynamic network communication. Copyright © 2015 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exploring Fold Space Preferences of New-born and Ancient Protein Superfamilies

PubMed Central

Edwards, Hannah; Abeln, Sanne; Deane, Charlotte M.

2013-01-01

The evolution of proteins is one of the fundamental processes that has delivered the diversity and complexity of life we see around ourselves today. While we tend to define protein evolution in terms of sequence level mutations, insertions and deletions, it is hard to translate these processes to a more complete picture incorporating a polypeptide's structure and function. By considering how protein structures change over time we can gain an entirely new appreciation of their long-term evolutionary dynamics. In this work we seek to identify how populations of proteins at different stages of evolution explore their possible structure space. We use an annotation of superfamily age to this space and explore the relationship between these ages and a diverse set of properties pertaining to a superfamily's sequence, structure and function. We note several marked differences between the populations of newly evolved and ancient structures, such as in their length distributions, secondary structure content and tertiary packing arrangements. In particular, many of these differences suggest a less elaborate structure for newly evolved superfamilies when compared with their ancient counterparts. We show that the structural preferences we report are not a residual effect of a more fundamental relationship with function. Furthermore, we demonstrate the robustness of our results, using significant variation in the algorithm used to estimate the ages. We present these age estimates as a useful tool to analyse protein populations. In particularly, we apply this in a comparison of domains containing greek key or jelly roll motifs. PMID:24244135

Impact of the HIV epidemic on population and household structure: the dynamics and evidence to date.

PubMed

Heuveline, Patrick

2004-06-01

HIV is contracted most frequently at birth and during early adulthood. The epidemic may thus impact the demographic structure and the household structure of affected populations. This paper reviews earlier evidence of such an impact, uses demographic theory to anticipate its changes over time, and reviews the most recent evidence for indications of these changes. Modest increases in the male : female ratio are beginning to show within certain age groups only (approximately 15% among 25-34 year olds). Similarly sized increases in the proportion of 15-29 year olds relative to 30-54 year olds are observed in some age pyramids. These 'youth bulges' are expected to fade out, whereas an aging effect phases in with the fertility impact of the epidemic. In the longer run, the size of all age groups will be reduced, but relatively less so for middle-aged adults. Proportions of orphans and widows have increased in the most affected countries. Fewer remarriage probabilities for widows were observed. Resulting increases in the proportion of female-headed households should only be temporary, as female mortality is catching up with male mortality. The number of double orphans is beginning to increase, but overall, orphans continue to live predominantly with a family member, most often the grandparents if not with the surviving parent. To date, the epidemic's impact on the population and household structure has been limited by demographic (aging) and social (adaptive movements of kin across households) processes that contribute to diffuse the epidemic throughout the entire population and all households.

Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population.

PubMed

Chan, Kung-Sik; Mysterud, Atle; Øritsland, Nils Are; Severinsen, Torbjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2005-10-01

Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event ("locked pastures") with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) "event" process. The introduction of an "event" parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events.

Modeling and Analysis of a Nonlinear Age-Structured Model for Tumor Cell Populations with Quiescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zijian; Chen, Jing; Pang, Jianhua; Bi, Ping; Ruan, Shigui

2018-05-01

We present a nonlinear first-order hyperbolic partial differential equation model to describe age-structured tumor cell populations with proliferating and quiescent phases at the avascular stage in vitro. The division rate of the proliferating cells is assumed to be nonlinear due to the limitation of the nutrient and space. The model includes a proportion of newborn cells that enter directly the quiescent phase with age zero. This proportion can reflect the effect of treatment by drugs such as erlotinib. The existence and uniqueness of solutions are established. The local and global stabilities of the trivial steady state are investigated. The existence and local stability of the positive steady state are also analyzed. Numerical simulations are performed to verify the results and to examine the impacts of parameters on the nonlinear dynamics of the model.

Mixing times towards demographic equilibrium in insect populations with temperature variable age structures.

PubMed

Damos, Petros

2015-08-01

In this study, we use entropy related mixing rate modules to measure the effects of temperature on insect population stability and demographic breakdown. The uncertainty in the age of the mother of a randomly chosen newborn, and how it is moved after a finite act of time steps, is modeled using a stochastic transformation of the Leslie matrix. Age classes are represented as a cycle graph and its transitions towards the stable age distribution are brought forth as an exact Markov chain. The dynamics of divergence, from a non equilibrium state towards equilibrium, are evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy. Moreover, Kullback-Leibler distance is applied as information-theoretic measure to estimate exact mixing times of age transitions probabilities towards equilibrium. Using empirically data, we show that on the initial conditions and simulated projection's trough time, that population entropy can effectively be applied to detect demographic variability towards equilibrium under different temperature conditions. Changes in entropy are correlated with the fluctuations of the insect population decay rates (i.e. demographic stability towards equilibrium). Moreover, shorter mixing times are directly linked to lower entropy rates and vice versa. This may be linked to the properties of the insect model system, which in contrast to warm blooded animals has the ability to greatly change its metabolic and demographic rates. Moreover, population entropy and the related distance measures that are applied, provide a means to measure these rates. The current results and model projections provide clear biological evidence why dynamic population entropy may be useful to measure population stability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population characteristics of channel catfish near the northern edge of their distribution: implications for management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter-Lynn, K. P.; Quist, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Channel catfish, Ictalurus punctatus (Rafinesque), populations in six lakes in northern Idaho, USA, were sampled to describe their population characteristics. During the summers of 2011 and 2012, 4864 channel catfish were sampled. Channel catfish populations had low to moderate catch rates, and length structure was dominated by fish <400 mm. Channel catfish were in good body condition. All populations were maintained by stocking age-1 or age-2 fish. Growth of fish reared in thermally enriched environments prior to stocking was fast compared to other North American channel catfish populations. After stocking, growth of channel catfish declined rapidly. Once stocked, cold water temperatures, prey resources and (or) genetic capabilities limited growth. Total annual mortality of age 2 and older channel catfish was generally <40%. Tag returns indicated that angler exploitation was low, varying from 0 to 43% among lakes. This research provides insight on factors regulating channel catfish population dynamics and highlights important considerations associated with their ecology and management.

COMPLETED FERTILITY DURING THE TWENTIETH CENTURY: AN EXAMPLE FROM SIX SETTLEMENTS IN NORTHERN GREECE.

PubMed

Zafeiris, Konstantinos N; Kaklamani, Stamatina

2018-02-06

This study aimed to delineate temporal trends and differentials of completed fertility and their relationship with some characteristics of the marriage system in specific anthropological populations of northern Greece. The analysis was based on the life history of quinquennial and decennial birth cohorts of married women born in the 20th century who reproduced solely within the settlements studied. The variables studied were: children ever born, mean age of mother at first marriage, mean age of mother at first child (live birth), mean age of mother at last child and reproductive span. The results indicated that there were significant differences in the demographic characteristics of marriage and that there was an ongoing fertility transition in the 20th century in the populations studied. The mechanism of fertility decline was connected with the gradual reduction of the mean age of the mother at last child, the parallel decrease in the mean age at childbearing and a shortening of the reproductive span. Fertility levels at all times maintained a dynamic character imposed by local cultural, economic and social structures, which, in turn, were part of broader national and international structures, in all the populations studied. A strong trend of convergence of fertility levels was observed among the populations studied.

Changes in Visual Function in the Elderly Population in the United States: 1995-2010.

PubMed

Chen, Yiqun; Hahn, Paul; Sloan, Frank A

2016-06-01

To document recent trends in visual function among the United States population aged 70+ years and investigate how the trends can be explained by inter-temporal changes in: (1) population sociodemographic characteristics, and chronic disease prevalence, including eye diseases (compositional changes); and (2) effects of the above factors on visual function (structural changes). Data from the 1995 Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) and the 2010 Health and Retirement Study (HRS) were merged with Medicare Part B claims in the interview years and the 2 previous years. Decomposition analysis was performed. Respondents from both studies were aged 70+ years. The outcome measure was respondent self-reported visual function on a 6-point scale (from 6 = blind to 1 = excellent). Overall, visual function improved from slightly worse than good (3.14) in 1995 to slightly better than good (2.98) in 2010. A decline in adverse effects of aging on vision was found. Among the compositional changes were higher educational attainment leading to improved vision, and higher prevalence of such diseases as diabetes mellitus, which tended to lower visual function. However, compared to compositional changes, structural changes were far more important, including decreased adverse effects of aging, diabetes mellitus (when not controlling for eye diseases), and diagnosed glaucoma. Although the US population has aged and is expected to age further, visual function improved among elderly persons, especially among persons 80+ years, likely reflecting a favorable role of structural changes identified in this study in mitigating the adverse effect of ongoing aging on vision.

Age estimation of burbot using pectoral fin rays, brachiostegal rays, and otoliths

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klein, Zachary B.; Terrazas, Marc M.; Quist, Michael C.

2014-01-01

Throughout much of its native distribution, burbot (Lota lota) is a species of conservation concern. Understanding dynamic rate functions is critical for the effective management of sensitive burbot populations, which necessitates accurate and precise age estimates. Managing sensitive burbot populations requires an accurate and precise non-lethal alternative. In an effort to identify a non-lethal ageing structure, we compared the precision of age estimates obtained from otoliths, pectoral fin rays, dorsal fin rays and branchiostegal rays from 208 burbot collected from the Green River drainage, Wyoming. Additionally, we compared the accuracy of age estimates from pectoral fin rays, dorsal fin rays and branchiostegal rays to those of otoliths. Dorsal fin rays were immediately deemed a poor ageing structure and removed from further analysis. Age-bias plots of consensus ages derived from branchiostegal rays and pectoral fin rays were appreciably different from those obtained from otoliths. Exact agreement between readers and reader confidence was highest for otoliths and lowest for branchiostegal rays. Age-bias plots indicated that age estimates obtained from branchiostegal rays and pectoral fin rays were substantially different from age estimates obtained from otoliths. Our results indicate that otoliths provide the most precise age estimates for burbot.

Special issue dedicated to the 70th birthday of Glenn F. Webb. Preface.

PubMed

Hinow, Peter; Magal, Pierre; Ruan, Shigui

2015-08-01

This special issue is dedicated to the 70th birthday of Glenn F. Webb. The topics of the 12 articles appearing in this special issue include evolutionary dynamics of population growth, spatio-temporal dynamics in reaction-diffusion biological models, transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, modeling of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in hospitals, analysis of Prion models, age-structured models in ecology and epidemiology, modeling of immune response to infections, modeling of cancer growth, etc. These topics partially represent the broad areas of Glenn's research interest.

[Сhaotic dynamics of cardio-intervals in three age groups of indigenous and non-indigenous population of Ugra].

PubMed

Eskov, V M; Khadartsev, A A; Eskov, V V; Vokhmina, J V

2016-01-01

The problem of life expectancy of indigenous and non-indigenous population of northern territories of the Russian Federation is considered in terms of economic growth and industrial development of the northern territories. The importance of prolonging the period of active working age of non-indigenous population of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Ugra and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug is increasing. Four directions for possible prolongation of the active life of non-indigenous population were presented. The problem of comparative dynamics of age-related changes of cardiovascular system on three specific age groups of female indigenous and non-indigenous population is being considered. A decrease in volume of quasi-attractors in the phase space of states is equivalent to strengthening of physical activity, which is typical of normal aging. It is proposed to use the mathematical pattern to reduce these volumes in assessing the dynamics of human aging in the North.

Landscape Pattern Determines Neighborhood Size and Structure within a Lizard Population

PubMed Central

Ryberg, Wade A.; Hill, Michael T.; Painter, Charles W.; Fitzgerald, Lee A.

2013-01-01

Although defining population structure according to discrete habitat patches is convenient for metapopulation theories, taking this approach may overlook structure within populations continuously distributed across landscapes. For example, landscape features within habitat patches direct the movement of organisms and define the density distribution of individuals, which can generate spatial structure and localized dynamics within populations as well as among them. Here, we use the neighborhood concept, which describes population structure relative to the scale of individual movements, to illustrate how localized dynamics within a population of lizards (Sceloporus arenicolus) arise in response to variation in landscape pattern within a continuous habitat patch. Our results emphasize links between individual movements at small scales and the emergence of spatial structure within populations which resembles metapopulation dynamics at larger scales. We conclude that population dynamics viewed in a landscape context must consider the explicit distribution and movement of individuals within continuous habitat as well as among habitat patches. PMID:23441217

[Demographic dynamics, migrants from bordering countries and economic activity in Buenos Aires].

PubMed

Lattes, A E; Bertoncello, R

1997-04-01

The growth and changes--by age, sex, and place of birth--in the structure of the total population of the Buenos Aires metropolitan area and of the subpopulation over 15 years of age and economically active are analyzed for the decade of the 1980s. Study of the economic participation of migrants and its possible influence on levels of employment or unemployment should be carried out within the framework of changes in the population's structure and economic participation. The 1981 and 1991 censuses and the Permanent Survey of Households were the sources of data. Immigration to Argentina has declined considerably in recent years, but it is still a factor in the population growth of metropolitan Buenos Aires. Between the 1981 and 1991 censuses, the population aged 15 and over grew by 10.9/1000, or a total of 827,806 people. Migrants from bordering countries increased in number (by 85,109, or 10.3%) and in proportion to the total population (from 3.9% to 4.6%). Migrant women increased at the highest rate (30.1/1000). The greatest growth occurred among men aged 40 and over and among women aged 35 and over. The growth of the economically active population over age 15 for different groups of national origin, sex, and age showed much greater heterogeneity. In 1991, women from bordering countries represented 3.8% of all women in metropolitan Buenos Aires but 5.7% of the total economically active female population and nearly 7% of the economically active female population aged 35 and over. Women from neighboring countries were responsible for 10.3% of the growth in the economically active female population aged 30-34 and 40-44 between 1981 and 1991. The absolute and relative increases in migrants from neighboring countries and their greater economic participation tend to increase the general level of economic activity.

Wild European apple (Malus sylvestris (L.) Mill.) population dynamics: insight from genetics and ecology in the Rhine Valley. Priorities for a future conservation programme.

PubMed

Schnitzler, Annik; Arnold, Claire; Cornille, Amandine; Bachmann, Olivier; Schnitzler, Christophe

2014-01-01

The increasing fragmentation of forest habitats and the omnipresence of cultivars potentially threaten the genetic integrity of the European wild apple (Malus sylvestris (L.) Mill). However, the conservation status of this species remains unclear in Europe, other than in Belgium and the Czech Republic, where it has been declared an endangered species. The population density of M. sylvestris is higher in the forests of the upper Rhine Valley (France) than in most European forests, with an unbalanced age-structure, an overrepresentation of adults and a tendency to clump. We characterize here the ecology, age-structure and genetic diversity of wild apple populations in the Rhine Valley. We use these data to highlight links to the history of this species and to propose guidelines for future conservation strategies. In total, 255 individual wild apple trees from six forest stands (five floodplain forests and one forest growing in drier conditions) were analysed in the field, collected and genotyped on the basis of data for 15 microsatellite markers. Genetic analyses showed no escaped cultivars and few hybrids with the cultivated apple. Excluding the hybrids, the genetically "pure" populations displayed high levels of genetic diversity and a weak population structure. Age-structure and ecology studies of wild apple populations identified four categories that were not randomly distributed across the forests, reflecting the history of the Rhine forest over the last century. The Rhine wild apple populations, with their ecological strategies, high genetic diversity, and weak traces of crop-to-wild gene flow associated with the history of these floodplain forests, constitute candidate populations for inclusion in future conservation programmes for European wild apple.

Wild European Apple (Malus sylvestris (L.) Mill.) Population Dynamics: Insight from Genetics and Ecology in the Rhine Valley. Priorities for a Future Conservation Programme

PubMed Central

Schnitzler, Annik; Arnold, Claire; Cornille, Amandine; Bachmann, Olivier; Schnitzler, Christophe

2014-01-01

The increasing fragmentation of forest habitats and the omnipresence of cultivars potentially threaten the genetic integrity of the European wild apple (Malus sylvestris (L.) Mill). However, the conservation status of this species remains unclear in Europe, other than in Belgium and the Czech Republic, where it has been declared an endangered species. The population density of M. sylvestris is higher in the forests of the upper Rhine Valley (France) than in most European forests, with an unbalanced age-structure, an overrepresentation of adults and a tendency to clump. We characterize here the ecology, age-structure and genetic diversity of wild apple populations in the Rhine Valley. We use these data to highlight links to the history of this species and to propose guidelines for future conservation strategies. In total, 255 individual wild apple trees from six forest stands (five floodplain forests and one forest growing in drier conditions) were analysed in the field, collected and genotyped on the basis of data for 15 microsatellite markers. Genetic analyses showed no escaped cultivars and few hybrids with the cultivated apple. Excluding the hybrids, the genetically “pure” populations displayed high levels of genetic diversity and a weak population structure. Age-structure and ecology studies of wild apple populations identified four categories that were not randomly distributed across the forests, reflecting the history of the Rhine forest over the last century. The Rhine wild apple populations, with their ecological strategies, high genetic diversity, and weak traces of crop-to-wild gene flow associated with the history of these floodplain forests, constitute candidate populations for inclusion in future conservation programmes for European wild apple. PMID:24827575

The role of population inertia in predicting the outcome of stage-structured biological invasions.

PubMed

Guiver, Chris; Dreiwi, Hanan; Filannino, Donna-Maria; Hodgson, Dave; Lloyd, Stephanie; Townley, Stuart

2015-07-01

Deterministic dynamic models for coupled resident and invader populations are considered with the purpose of finding quantities that are effective at predicting when the invasive population will become established asymptotically. A key feature of the models considered is the stage-structure, meaning that the populations are described by vectors of discrete developmental stage- or age-classes. The vector structure permits exotic transient behaviour-phenomena not encountered in scalar models. Analysis using a linear Lyapunov function demonstrates that for the class of population models considered, a large so-called population inertia is indicative of successful invasion. Population inertia is an indicator of transient growth or decline. Furthermore, for the class of models considered, we find that the so-called invasion exponent, an existing index used in models for invasion, is not always a reliable comparative indicator of successful invasion. We highlight these findings through numerical examples and a biological interpretation of why this might be the case is discussed. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Precision of four otolith techniques for estimating age of white perch from a thermally altered reservoir

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snow, Richard A.; Porta, Michael J.; Long, James M.

2018-01-01

The White Perch Morone americana is an invasive species in many Midwestern states and is widely distributed in reservoir systems, yet little is known about the species' age structure and population dynamics. White Perch were first observed in Sooner Reservoir, a thermally altered cooling reservoir in Oklahoma, by the Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation in 2006. It is unknown how thermally altered systems like Sooner Reservoir may affect the precision of White Perch age estimates. Previous studies have found that age structures from Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides and Bluegills Lepomis macrochirus from thermally altered reservoirs had false annuli, which increased error when estimating ages. Our objective was to quantify the precision of White Perch age estimates using four sagittal otolith preparation techniques (whole, broken, browned, and stained). Because Sooner Reservoir is thermally altered, we also wanted to identify the best month to collect a White Perch age sample based on aging precision. Ages of 569 White Perch (20–308 mm TL) were estimated using the four techniques. Age estimates from broken, stained, and browned otoliths ranged from 0 to 8 years; whole‐view otolith age estimates ranged from 0 to 7 years. The lowest mean coefficient of variation (CV) was obtained using broken otoliths, whereas the highest CV was observed using browned otoliths. July was the most precise month (lowest mean CV) for estimating age of White Perch, whereas April was the least precise month (highest mean CV). These results underscore the importance of knowing the best method to prepare otoliths for achieving the most precise age estimates and the best time of year to obtain those samples, as these factors may affect other estimates of population dynamics.

Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics.

PubMed

Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

2018-01-01

In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

2018-01-01

In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

The growth and population dynamics of seagrass Thalassia hemprichii in Suli Waters, Ambon Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tupan, C. I.; Uneputty, Pr A.

2017-10-01

The objectives of the research were to determined growth of rhizome, age structure, recruitment rate, and mortality rate of Thalassia hemprichii. Data were collected by using reconstruction technique which the measurements were based on past growth history. The age of seagrass was based on plastochrone interval. The recruitment rate was estimated by age structure of living shoots while mortality rate was estimated by age structure of dead shoots. The research was conducted on coastal waters of Suli where divided into two stations with different substrates, namely mixed substrates of sand and mud (S1) and mixed substrates of sand and coral fragment (S2). The growth rate of horizontal rhizome ranged from 4.15-8.68 cm.year-1 whereas the growth rate of vertical rhizome was 1.11-1.16 cm.year-1. The average age of T. hemprichii varied between 3.22-4.15 years. The youngest shoots were found at age 0.38 years and the oldest shoots were 7.82 years. Distribution of age was polymodal which reflecting cohort. The recruitment rate ranged from 0.23-0.54 year-1. Otherwise, the mortality rate ranged from 0.21-0.26 year-1.Seagrass population of T. hemprichii in Suli Waters indicated an increasing condition which shown by higher recruitment rate than mortality rate.

Consumptive and nonconsumptive effects of cannibalism in fluctuating age-structured populations.

PubMed

Wissinger, Scott A; Whiteman, Howard H; Denoël, Mathieu; Mumford, Miranda L; Aubee, Catherine B

2010-02-01

Theory and empirical studies suggest that cannibalism in age-structured populations can regulate recruitment depending on the intensity of intraspecific competition between cannibals and victims and the nature of the cannibalism window, i.e., which size classes interact as cannibals and victims. Here we report on a series of experiments that quantify that window for age-structured populations of salamander larvae and paedomorphic adults. We determined body size limits on cannibalism in microcosms and then the consumptive and nonconsumptive (injuries, foraging and activity, diet, growth) effects on victims in mesocosms with seminatural levels of habitat complexity and alternative prey. We found that cannibalism by the largest size classes (paedomorphs and > or = age 3+ yr larvae) occurs mainly on young-of-the-year (YOY) victims. Surviving YOY and other small larvae had increased injuries, reduced activity levels, and reduced growth rates in the presence of cannibals. Data on YOY survival in an experiment in which we manipulated the density of paedomorphs combined with historical data on the number of cannibals in natural populations indicate that dominant cohorts of paedomorphs can cause observed recruitment failures. Dietary data indicate that ontogenetic shifts in diet should preclude strong intraspecific competition between YOY and cannibals in this species. Thus our results are consistent with previous empirical and theoretical work that suggests that recruitment regulation by cannibalism is most likely when YOY are vulnerable to cannibalism but have low dietary overlap with cannibals. Understanding the role of cannibalism in regulating recruitment in salamander populations is timely, given the widespread occurrences of amphibian decline. Previous studies have focused on extrinsic (including anthropogenic) factors that affect amphibian population dynamics, whereas the data presented here combined with long-term field observations suggest the potential for intrinsically driven population cycles.

Coarse-graining and hybrid methods for efficient simulation of stochastic multi-scale models of tumour growth.

PubMed

de la Cruz, Roberto; Guerrero, Pilar; Calvo, Juan; Alarcón, Tomás

2017-12-01

The development of hybrid methodologies is of current interest in both multi-scale modelling and stochastic reaction-diffusion systems regarding their applications to biology. We formulate a hybrid method for stochastic multi-scale models of cells populations that extends the remit of existing hybrid methods for reaction-diffusion systems. Such method is developed for a stochastic multi-scale model of tumour growth, i.e. population-dynamical models which account for the effects of intrinsic noise affecting both the number of cells and the intracellular dynamics. In order to formulate this method, we develop a coarse-grained approximation for both the full stochastic model and its mean-field limit. Such approximation involves averaging out the age-structure (which accounts for the multi-scale nature of the model) by assuming that the age distribution of the population settles onto equilibrium very fast. We then couple the coarse-grained mean-field model to the full stochastic multi-scale model. By doing so, within the mean-field region, we are neglecting noise in both cell numbers (population) and their birth rates (structure). This implies that, in addition to the issues that arise in stochastic-reaction diffusion systems, we need to account for the age-structure of the population when attempting to couple both descriptions. We exploit our coarse-graining model so that, within the mean-field region, the age-distribution is in equilibrium and we know its explicit form. This allows us to couple both domains consistently, as upon transference of cells from the mean-field to the stochastic region, we sample the equilibrium age distribution. Furthermore, our method allows us to investigate the effects of intracellular noise, i.e. fluctuations of the birth rate, on collective properties such as travelling wave velocity. We show that the combination of population and birth-rate noise gives rise to large fluctuations of the birth rate in the region at the leading edge of front, which cannot be accounted for by the coarse-grained model. Such fluctuations have non-trivial effects on the wave velocity. Beyond the development of a new hybrid method, we thus conclude that birth-rate fluctuations are central to a quantitatively accurate description of invasive phenomena such as tumour growth.

Coarse-graining and hybrid methods for efficient simulation of stochastic multi-scale models of tumour growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de la Cruz, Roberto; Guerrero, Pilar; Calvo, Juan; Alarcón, Tomás

2017-12-01

The development of hybrid methodologies is of current interest in both multi-scale modelling and stochastic reaction-diffusion systems regarding their applications to biology. We formulate a hybrid method for stochastic multi-scale models of cells populations that extends the remit of existing hybrid methods for reaction-diffusion systems. Such method is developed for a stochastic multi-scale model of tumour growth, i.e. population-dynamical models which account for the effects of intrinsic noise affecting both the number of cells and the intracellular dynamics. In order to formulate this method, we develop a coarse-grained approximation for both the full stochastic model and its mean-field limit. Such approximation involves averaging out the age-structure (which accounts for the multi-scale nature of the model) by assuming that the age distribution of the population settles onto equilibrium very fast. We then couple the coarse-grained mean-field model to the full stochastic multi-scale model. By doing so, within the mean-field region, we are neglecting noise in both cell numbers (population) and their birth rates (structure). This implies that, in addition to the issues that arise in stochastic-reaction diffusion systems, we need to account for the age-structure of the population when attempting to couple both descriptions. We exploit our coarse-graining model so that, within the mean-field region, the age-distribution is in equilibrium and we know its explicit form. This allows us to couple both domains consistently, as upon transference of cells from the mean-field to the stochastic region, we sample the equilibrium age distribution. Furthermore, our method allows us to investigate the effects of intracellular noise, i.e. fluctuations of the birth rate, on collective properties such as travelling wave velocity. We show that the combination of population and birth-rate noise gives rise to large fluctuations of the birth rate in the region at the leading edge of front, which cannot be accounted for by the coarse-grained model. Such fluctuations have non-trivial effects on the wave velocity. Beyond the development of a new hybrid method, we thus conclude that birth-rate fluctuations are central to a quantitatively accurate description of invasive phenomena such as tumour growth.

[Gender and age dependent mortality from nervous diseases in Azerbaijan].

PubMed

Mamedbeyli, A K

2015-01-01

To assess age- and sex-related changes in the mortality from nervous diseases at the population level. Methods of descriptive statistics and analysis of qualitative traits were applied. We analyzed 13580 medical certificates of cause of death from nervous diseases (all classes of ICD-10). The mortality rate varied with age, the main trend of which was the dynamic growth. Age-specific mortality rates for men and women differed from each other: in most ages (20-24, 30-34, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 65-69), the likelihood of mortality was higher in men, and at the age of 5-9, 15-19, 60-64, 70 and more years in women. After the standardization of gender differences by age, the mortality risk of nervous illnesses disappeared (146.74 and 144.16 per 100 thousand for men and women, respectively).  There were significant differences in the proportion of nervous diseases of all-cause mortality among the population in the groups stratified by age and sex. It is believed that situational factors is a cause of actual prevailing of gender age- and sex-related mortality risks. Gender features of age-related risk of mortality from nervous diseases are characterized by the multidirectional dynamics of likelihood of mortality and specific weight of nervous diseases among all causes of mortality. The actual gender features of age-related risk of mortality from nervous diseases are generally caused by situational factors (different age structure and unequal level of the general mortality among male and female population) which disappear after standardization.

Effect of the alien invasive bivalve Corbicula fluminea on the nutrient dynamics under climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coelho, J. P.; Lillebø, A. I.; Crespo, D.; Leston, S.; Dolbeth, M.

2018-05-01

The main aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the alien invasive bivalve Corbicula fluminea (Müller, 1774) in the nutrient dynamics of temperate estuarine systems (oligohaline areas) under climate change scenarios. The scenarios simulated shifts in climatic conditions, following salinity (0 or 5) and temperature (24 or 30 °C) changes, usual during drought and heat wave events. The effect of the individual size/age (different size classes with fixed biomass) and density (various densities of <1 cm clams) on the bioturbation-associated nutrient dynamics were also evaluated under an 18-day laboratory experimental setup. Results highlight the significant effect of C. fluminea on the ecosystem nutrient dynamics, enhancing the efflux of both phosphate and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) from the sediments to the water column. Both drought and heat wave events will have an impact on the DIN dynamics within C. fluminea colonized systems, favouring a higher NH4-N efflux. The population structure of C. fluminea will have a decisive role on the impact of the species, with stronger nutrient effluxes associated with a predominantly juvenile population structure.

Estimation by capture-recapture of recruitment and dispersal over several sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lebreton, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Pradel, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Spendelow, J.A.

2003-01-01

Dispersal in animal populations is intimately linked with accession to reproduction, i.e. recruitment, and population regulation. Dispersal processes are thus a key component of population dynamics to the same extent as reproduction or mortality processes. Despite the growing interest in spatial aspects of population dynamics, the methodology for estimating dispersal, in particular in relation with recruitment, is limited. In many animal populations, in particular vertebrates, the impossibility of following individuals over space and time in an exhaustive way leads to the need to frame the estimation of dispersal in the context of capture-recapture methodology. We present here a class of age-dependent multistate capture-recapture models for the simultaneous estimation of natal dispersal, breeding dispersal, and age-dependent recruitment. These models are suitable for populations in which individuals are marked at birth and then recaptured over several sites. Under simple constraints, they can be used in populations where non-breeders are not observed, as is often the case with colonial waterbirds monitored on their breeding grounds. Biological questions can be addressed by comparing models differing in structure, according to the generalized linear model philosophy broadly used in capture-recapture methodology. We illustrate the potential of this approach by an analysis of recruitment and dispersal in the roseate tern Sterna dougallii.

Exploitation dynamics of small fish stocks like Arctic cisco

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nielsen, Jennifer L.

2004-01-01

Potential impacts to the Arctic cisco population fall into both demographic and behavioral categories. Possible demographic impacts include stock recruitment effects, limited escapement into marine habitats, and variable age-class reproductive success. Potential behavioral impacts involve migratory patterns, variable life histories, and strategies for seasonal feeding. Arctic cisco stocks are highly susceptible to over-exploitation due to our limited basic knowledge of the highly variable Arctic environment and the role they play in this dynamic ecosystem.Our knowledge of potential demographic changes is very limited, and it is necessary to determine the abundance and recruitment of the hypothesized Mackenzie River source population, the extent of the coastal migratory corridor, growth patterns, and coastal upwelling and mixing effects on population dynamics for this species. Information needed to answer some of the demographic questions includes basic evolutionary history and molecular genetics of Arctic cisco (for instance, are there contributions to the Arctic cisco stock from the Yukon?), what is the effective population size (i.e., breeding population size), and potential links to changes in climate. The basic behavioral questions include migratory and variable life history questions. For instance, the extent of movement back and forth between freshwater and the sea, age-specific differences in food web dynamics, and nearshore brackish and high salinity habitats are topics that should be studied. Life history data should be gathered to understand the variation in age at reproduction, salinity tolerance, scale and duration of the freshwater stage, survival, and adult migration. Both molecular and ecological tools should be integrated to manage the Arctic cisco stock(s), such as understanding global climate changes on patterns of harvest and recruitment, and the genetics of population structure and colonization. Perhaps other populations are contributing to the population within the Colville River other than only the Mackenzie River population. This needs further exploration. By examining otolith microchemistry, unique transitions from freshwater to sea can be identified for these stocks. This may shed light on why some fish arrive at the mouth of the Colville River, while others don’t.

On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics

PubMed Central

Krkošek, Martin; Drake, John M.

2014-01-01

Critical slowing down (CSD) reflects the decline in resilience of equilibria near a bifurcation and may reveal early warning signals (EWS) of ecological phase transitions. We studied CSD in the recruitment dynamics of 120 stocks of three Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) species in relation to critical transitions in fishery models. Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) exhibited increased variability and autocorrelation in populations that had a growth parameter, r, close to zero, consistent with EWS of extinction. However, models and data for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) indicate that portfolio effects from heterogeneity in age-at-maturity may obscure EWS. Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) show intermediate results. The data do not reveal EWS of Ricker-type bifurcations that cause oscillations and chaos at high r. These results not only provide empirical support for CSD in some ecological systems, but also indicate that portfolio effects of age structure may conceal EWS of some critical transitions. PMID:24759855

Uncovering the Detailed Structure and Dynamics of Andromeda's Complex Stellar Disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorman, Claire; Guhathakurta, Puragra; Seth, Anil; Dalcanton, Julianne; Widrow, Larry; Splash Team, Phat Team

2015-01-01

Lambda cold dark matter (LCDM) cosmology predicts that the disks of Milky Way-mass galaxies should have undergone at least one merger with a large (mass ratio 1:10) satellite in the last several Gyr. However, the stellar disk in the solar neighborhood of the Milky Way is too thin and dynamically cold to have experienced such an impact. The dynamics of the nearby Andromeda galaxy can serve as a second data point, and help us understand whether the Milky Way may simply have had an unusually quiescent merger history, or whether LCDM theory needs to be revisited. Over the last few years, we have carried out a detailed study of the resolved stellar populations in the disk of the Andromeda galaxy using data from two surveys: six-filter Hubble Space Telescope photometry from the recently-completed Panchromatic Hubble Andromeda Treasury (PHAT) survey, and radial velocities derived from Keck/DEIMOS optical spectra obtained as part of the Spectroscopic and Photometric Landscape of Andromeda's Stellar Halo (SPLASH) program. These detailed, multidimensional data sets allow us to decouple the structural subcomponents and characterize them individually. We find that an old, dynamically hot (velocity dispersion ~150 km/s) RGB population extends out to 20 kpc (the edge of the visible disk) but has a disk-like surface brightness profile and luminosity function. This population may have originated in the disk but been kicked out subsequently in impacts with satellite galaxies. We also study the kinematics of the disk as a function of the age of stellar tracers, and find a direct correlation between age and velocity dispersion, indicating that Andromeda has undergone a continuous heating or disk settling process throughout its lifetime. Overall, both the velocity dispersion of Andromeda's disk and the slope of the velocity dispersion vs. stellar age curve are several times those of the Milky Way's, suggesting a more active merger history more in line with LCDM cosmological predictions.This research was funded by grants from the NSF and NASA/STScI.

Structure and dynamics of Andromeda's stellar disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorman, Claire Elise

2015-10-01

Lambda cold dark matter (LambdaCDM) cosmology predicts that the disks of Milky Way-mass galaxies should have undergone at least one merger with a large (mass ratio 1:10) satellite in the last several Gyr. However, the stellar disk in the solar neighborhood of the Milky Way is too thin and dynamically cold to have experienced such an impact. The dynamics of the nearby Andromeda galaxy can serve as a second data point, and help us understand whether the Milky Way may simply have had an unusually quiescent merger history, or whether LambdaCDM theory needs to be revisited. Over the last few years, we have carried out a detailed study of the resolved stellar populations in the disk of the Andromeda galaxy using data from two surveys: six-filter Hubble Space Telescope photometry from the recently-completed Panchromatic Hubble Andromeda Treasury (PHAT) survey, and radial velocities derived from Keck/DEIMOS optical spectra obtained as part of the Spectroscopic and Photometric Landscape of Andromeda's Stellar 0Halo (SPLASH) program. These detailed, multidimensional data sets allow us to decouple the structural subcomponents and characterize them individually. We find that an old, dynamically hot (velocity dispersion 150 km/s) RGB population extends out to 20 kpc (the edge of the visible disk) but has a disk-like surface brightness profile and luminosity function. This population may have originated in the disk but been kicked out subsequently in impacts with satellite galaxies. We also study the kinematics of the disk as a function of the age of stellar tracers, and find a direct correlation between age and velocity dispersion, indicating that Andromeda has undergone a continuous heating or disk settling process throughout its lifetime. Overall, both the velocity dispersion of Andromeda's disk and the slope of the velocity dispersion vs. stellar age curve are several times those of the Milky Way's, suggesting a more active merger history more in line with LambdaCDM cosmological predictions.

Age structured dynamical model for an endangered lizard Eulamprus leuraensis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Supriatna, A. K.; Rachmadani, Q.; Ilahi, F.; Anggriani, N.; Nuraini, N.

2014-02-01

The Blue Mountains Water Skink, Eulamprus leuraensis, is listed as an endangered species under the IUCN Red List. This lizard species has a typical characteristic of growth with a low fecundity. It is known that the offspring quality may decline with maternal age of the parents despite they can grow rapidly from neonatal size to adult size within two to three years. It is also believed that low adult survival rates and specialization on rare and fragmented type of habitat are the main cause leading to the endangered status of the lizard. A mathematical model with age structure for Eulamprus leuraensis, taking into account the variation of survival rate in each structure and the declining of offspring quality with respect to maternal age is considered here. Stable coexistence of non-trivial equilibriumis shown. It is also shown that an endangered status is due to combination oflow reproductive output and low rates of adult survival. Further, understanding the age structure within populations can facilitate efective management of the endangered species.

Decomposing variation in male reproductive success: age-specific variances and covariances through extra-pair and within-pair reproduction.

PubMed

Lebigre, Christophe; Arcese, Peter; Reid, Jane M

2013-07-01

Age-specific variances and covariances in reproductive success shape the total variance in lifetime reproductive success (LRS), age-specific opportunities for selection, and population demographic variance and effective size. Age-specific (co)variances in reproductive success achieved through different reproductive routes must therefore be quantified to predict population, phenotypic and evolutionary dynamics in age-structured populations. While numerous studies have quantified age-specific variation in mean reproductive success, age-specific variances and covariances in reproductive success, and the contributions of different reproductive routes to these (co)variances, have not been comprehensively quantified in natural populations. We applied 'additive' and 'independent' methods of variance decomposition to complete data describing apparent (social) and realised (genetic) age-specific reproductive success across 11 cohorts of socially monogamous but genetically polygynandrous song sparrows (Melospiza melodia). We thereby quantified age-specific (co)variances in male within-pair and extra-pair reproductive success (WPRS and EPRS) and the contributions of these (co)variances to the total variances in age-specific reproductive success and LRS. 'Additive' decomposition showed that within-age and among-age (co)variances in WPRS across males aged 2-4 years contributed most to the total variance in LRS. Age-specific (co)variances in EPRS contributed relatively little. However, extra-pair reproduction altered age-specific variances in reproductive success relative to the social mating system, and hence altered the relative contributions of age-specific reproductive success to the total variance in LRS. 'Independent' decomposition showed that the (co)variances in age-specific WPRS, EPRS and total reproductive success, and the resulting opportunities for selection, varied substantially across males that survived to each age. Furthermore, extra-pair reproduction increased the variance in age-specific reproductive success relative to the social mating system to a degree that increased across successive age classes. This comprehensive decomposition of the total variances in age-specific reproductive success and LRS into age-specific (co)variances attributable to two reproductive routes showed that within-age and among-age covariances contributed substantially to the total variance and that extra-pair reproduction can alter the (co)variance structure of age-specific reproductive success. Such covariances and impacts should consequently be integrated into theoretical assessments of demographic and evolutionary processes in age-structured populations. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Welcome mats? The role of seagrass meadow structure in controlling post-settlement survival in a keystone sea-urchin species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prado, Patricia; Romero, Javier; Alcoverro, Teresa

2009-11-01

Processes acting on the early-life histories of marine organisms can have important consequences for the structuring of benthic communities. In particular, the degree of coupling between larval supply and adult abundances can wield considerable influence on the strength of trophic interactions in the ecosystem. These processes have been relatively well described in rocky systems and soft-sediment communities, and it is clear that they are governed by very different bottlenecks. Seagrass meadows make interesting study systems because they bear structural affinities to both soft sediments as well as rocky substrates. We examined the early-life history of Paracentrotus lividus, one of the dominant herbivores in Mediterranean seagrass meadows, to identify the drivers of population dynamics in this species. We measured spatial and temporal variability in sea urchin post-settlement in 10 Posidonia oceanica meadows in the North-Western Mediterranean over a period of two years, and compared the numbers with the one-year old cohort a year later (i.e. the new population recruitment) as well as between successive size-age groups. Urchin post-settlers differed substantially between meadows but were present in both years in all meadows surveyed, suggesting that larval supply was not limiting for any of the studied sites. However, in six of the studied meadows, the one-year cohort of urchins was absent in both years, indicating that post-settlement processes strongly affected urchins in these meadows. In contrast, in four of the studied meadows, there was a strong coupling between post-settlers and one-year cohort individuals. These meadows were structurally different from the others in that they were characterised by an exposed matrix of rhizomes forming a dense seagrass mat. This mat apparently strongly mediates post-settlement mortality, and its presence or absence dictates the successful establishment of urchin populations in seagrass meadows. As the population aged, the relationship between size-age groups decreased evidencing the action of other processes. Yet, these results indicate that differences in physical structure are a vital bottleneck for sea urchin populations in seagrass meadows. Exploring the interaction between ecosystem structure and early-life history may provide a broader and more unified framework to understand the dynamics of a range of benthic habitats, including rocky substrates, soft sediments and seagrass meadows.

Inferences about ungulate population dynamics derived from age ratios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, N.C.; Kauffman, M.J.; Mills, L.S.

2008-01-01

Age ratios (e.g., calf:cow for elk and fawn:doe for deer) are used regularly to monitor ungulate populations. However, it remains unclear what inferences are appropriate from this index because multiple vital rate changes can influence the observed ratio. We used modeling based on elk (Cervus elaphus) life-history to evaluate both how age ratios are influenced by stage-specific fecundity and survival and how well age ratios track population dynamics. Although all vital rates have the potential to influence calf:adult female ratios (i.e., calf:xow ratios), calf survival explained the vast majority of variation in calf:adult female ratios due to its temporal variation compared to other vital rates. Calf:adult female ratios were positively correlated with population growth rate (??) and often successfully indicated population trajectories. However, calf:adult female ratios performed poorly at detecting imposed declines in calf survival, suggesting that only the most severe declines would be rapidly detected. Our analyses clarify that managers can use accurate, unbiased age ratios to monitor arguably the most important components contributing to sustainable ungulate populations, survival rate of young and ??. However, age ratios are not useful for detecting gradual declines in survival of young or making inferences about fecundity or adult survival in ungulate populations. Therefore, age ratios coupled with independent estimates of population growth or population size are necessary to monitor ungulate population demography and dynamics closely through time.

Investigating the effect of chemical stress and resource ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Modeling exposure and recovery of fish and wildlife populations after stressor mitigation serves as a basis for evaluating population status and remediation success. The Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) is an important and well-studied model organism for understanding the effects of pollutants and other stressors in estuarine and marine ecosystems. Herein, we develop a density dependent matrix population model for Atlantic killifish that analyzes both size-structure and age class-structure of the population so that we could readily incorporate output from a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model currently under development. This population modeling approach emphasizes application in conjunction with field monitoring efforts (e.g., through effects-based monitoring programs) and/or laboratory analysis to link effects due to chemical stress to adverse outcomes in whole organisms and populations. We applied the model using data for killifish exposed to dioxin-like compounds, taken from a previously published study. Specifically, the model was used to investigate population trajectories for Atlantic killifish with dietary exposures to 112, 296, and 875 pg/g of dioxin with effects on fertility and survival rates. All effects were expressed relative to control fish. Further, the population model was employed to examine age and size distributions of a population exposed to resource limitation in addition to chemical stress. For each dietary exposure concentration o

Evolution over time of the Milky Way's disc shape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amôres, E. B.; Robin, A. C.; Reylé, C.

2017-06-01

Context. Galactic structure studies can be used as a path to constrain the scenario of formation and evolution of our Galaxy. The dependence with the age of stellar population parameters would be linked with the history of star formation and dynamical evolution. Aims: We aim to investigate the structures of the outer Galaxy, such as the scale length, disc truncation, warp and flare of the thin disc and study their dependence with age by using 2MASS data and a population synthesis model (the so-called Besançon Galaxy Model). Methods: We have used a genetic algorithm to adjust the parameters on the observed colour-magnitude diagrams at longitudes 80° ≤ ℓ ≤ 280° for | b | ≤ 5.5°. We explored parameter degeneracies and uncertainties. Results: We identify a clear dependence of the thin disc scale length, warp and flare shapes with age. The scale length is found to vary between 3.8 kpc for the youngest to about 2 kpc for the oldest. The warp shows a complex structure, clearly asymmetrical with a node angle changing with age from approximately 165° for old stars to 195° for young stars. The outer disc is also flaring with a scale height that varies by a factor of two between the solar neighbourhood and a Galactocentric distance of 12 kpc. Conclusions: We conclude that the thin disc scale length is in good agreement with the inside-out formation scenario and that the outer disc is not in dynamical equilibrium. The warp deformation with time may provide some clues to its origin.

Male Kirtland's Warblers' patch-level response to landscape structure during periods of varying population size and habitat amounts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donner, D.M.; Ribic, C.A.; Probst, J.R.

2009-01-01

Forest planners must evaluate how spatiotemporal changes in habitat amount and configuration across the landscape as a result of timber management will affect species' persistence. However, there are few long-term programs available for evaluation. We investigated the response of male Kirtland's Warbler (Dendroica kirtlandii) to 26 years of changing patch and landscape structure during a large, 26-year forestry-habitat restoration program within the warbler's primary breeding range. We found that the average density of male Kirtland's Warblers was related to a different combination of patch and landscape attributes depending on the species' regional population level and habitat amounts on the landscape (early succession jack pine (Pinus banksiana) forests; 15-42% habitat cover). Specifically, patch age and habitat regeneration type were important at low male population and total habitat amounts, while patch age and distance to an occupied patch were important at relatively high population and habitat amounts. Patch age and size were more important at increasing population levels and an intermediate amount of habitat. The importance of patch age to average male density during all periods reflects the temporal buildup and decline of male numbers as habitat suitability within the patch changed with succession. Habitat selection (i.e., preference for wildfire-regenerated habitat) and availability may explain the importance of habitat type and patch size during lower population and habitat levels. The relationship between male density and distance when there was the most habitat on the landscape and the male population was large and still increasing may be explained by the widening spatial dispersion of the increasing male population at the regional scale. Because creating or preserving habitat is not a random process, management efforts would benefit from more investigations of managed population responses to changes in spatial structure that occur through habitat gain rather than habitat loss to further our empirical understanding of general principles of the fragmentation process and habitat cover threshold effects within dynamic landscapes.

Theoretical life history responses of juvenile Oncorhynchus mykiss to changes in food availability using a dynamic state-dependent approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romine, Jason G.; Benjamin, Joseph R.; Perry, Russell W.; Casal, Lynne; Connolly, Patrick J.; Sauter, Sally S.

2013-01-01

Marine subsidies can play an important role in the growth, survival, and migratory behavior of rearing juvenile salmonids. Availability of high-energy, marine-derived food sources during critical decision windows may influence the timing of emigration or the decision to forego emigration completely and remain in the freshwater environment. Increasing growth and growth rate during these decision windows may result in an altered juvenile population structure, which will ultimately affect the adult population age-structure. We used a state dependent model to understand how the juvenile Oncorhynchus mykiss population structure may respond to increased availability of salmon eggs in their diet during critical decision windows. Our models predicted an increase in smolt production until coho salmon eggs comprised more than 50 percent of juvenile O. mykiss diet at the peak of the spawning run. At higher-than intermediate levels of egg consumption, smolt production decreased owing to increasing numbers of fish adopting a resident life-history strategy. Additionally, greater growth rates decreased the number of age-3 smolts and increased the number of age-2 smolts. Increased growth rates with higher egg consumption also decreased the age at which fish adopted the resident pathway. Our models suggest that the introduction of a high-energy food source during critical periods of the year could be sufficient to increase smolt production.

Population genomics of Bronze Age Eurasia.

PubMed

Allentoft, Morten E; Sikora, Martin; Sjögren, Karl-Göran; Rasmussen, Simon; Rasmussen, Morten; Stenderup, Jesper; Damgaard, Peter B; Schroeder, Hannes; Ahlström, Torbjörn; Vinner, Lasse; Malaspinas, Anna-Sapfo; Margaryan, Ashot; Higham, Tom; Chivall, David; Lynnerup, Niels; Harvig, Lise; Baron, Justyna; Della Casa, Philippe; Dąbrowski, Paweł; Duffy, Paul R; Ebel, Alexander V; Epimakhov, Andrey; Frei, Karin; Furmanek, Mirosław; Gralak, Tomasz; Gromov, Andrey; Gronkiewicz, Stanisław; Grupe, Gisela; Hajdu, Tamás; Jarysz, Radosław; Khartanovich, Valeri; Khokhlov, Alexandr; Kiss, Viktória; Kolář, Jan; Kriiska, Aivar; Lasak, Irena; Longhi, Cristina; McGlynn, George; Merkevicius, Algimantas; Merkyte, Inga; Metspalu, Mait; Mkrtchyan, Ruzan; Moiseyev, Vyacheslav; Paja, László; Pálfi, György; Pokutta, Dalia; Pospieszny, Łukasz; Price, T Douglas; Saag, Lehti; Sablin, Mikhail; Shishlina, Natalia; Smrčka, Václav; Soenov, Vasilii I; Szeverényi, Vajk; Tóth, Gusztáv; Trifanova, Synaru V; Varul, Liivi; Vicze, Magdolna; Yepiskoposyan, Levon; Zhitenev, Vladislav; Orlando, Ludovic; Sicheritz-Pontén, Thomas; Brunak, Søren; Nielsen, Rasmus; Kristiansen, Kristian; Willerslev, Eske

2015-06-11

The Bronze Age of Eurasia (around 3000-1000 BC) was a period of major cultural changes. However, there is debate about whether these changes resulted from the circulation of ideas or from human migrations, potentially also facilitating the spread of languages and certain phenotypic traits. We investigated this by using new, improved methods to sequence low-coverage genomes from 101 ancient humans from across Eurasia. We show that the Bronze Age was a highly dynamic period involving large-scale population migrations and replacements, responsible for shaping major parts of present-day demographic structure in both Europe and Asia. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesized spread of Indo-European languages during the Early Bronze Age. We also demonstrate that light skin pigmentation in Europeans was already present at high frequency in the Bronze Age, but not lactose tolerance, indicating a more recent onset of positive selection on lactose tolerance than previously thought.

Mathematical model of susceptibility, resistance, and resilience in the within-host dynamics between a Plasmodium parasite and the immune system.

PubMed

Yan, Yi; Adam, Brian; Galinski, Mary; C Kissinger, Jessica; Moreno, Alberto; Gutierrez, Juan B

2015-12-01

We developed a coupled age-structured partial differential equation model to capture the disease dynamics during blood-stage malaria. The addition of age structure for the parasite population, with respect to previous models, allows us to better characterize the interaction between the malaria parasite and red blood cells during infection. Here we prove that the system we propose is well-posed and there exist at least two global states. We further demonstrate that the numerical simulation of the system coincides with clinically observed outcomes of primary and secondary malaria infection. The well-posedness of this system guarantees that the behavior of the model remains smooth, bounded, and continuously dependent on initial conditions; calibration with clinical data will constrain domains of parameters and variables to physiological ranges. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Global asymptotic stability of plant-seed bank models.

PubMed

Eager, Eric Alan; Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

2014-07-01

Many plant populations have persistent seed banks, which consist of viable seeds that remain dormant in the soil for many years. Seed banks are important for plant population dynamics because they buffer against environmental perturbations and reduce the probability of extinction. Viability of the seeds in the seed bank can depend on the seed's age, hence it is important to keep track of the age distribution of seeds in the seed bank. In this paper we construct a general density-dependent plant-seed bank model where the seed bank is age-structured. We consider density dependence in both seedling establishment and seed production, since previous work has highlighted that overcrowding can suppress both of these processes. Under certain assumptions on the density dependence, we prove that there is a globally stable equilibrium population vector which is independent of the initial state. We derive an analytical formula for the equilibrium population using methods from feedback control theory. We apply these results to a model for the plant species Cirsium palustre and its seed bank.

Interactions between social structure, demography, and transmission determine disease persistence in primates.

PubMed

Ryan, Sadie J; Jones, James H; Dobson, Andrew P

2013-01-01

Catastrophic declines in African great ape populations due to disease outbreaks have been reported in recent years, yet we rarely hear of similar disease impacts for the more solitary Asian great apes, or for smaller primates. We used an age-structured model of different primate social systems to illustrate that interactions between social structure and demography create 'dynamic constraints' on the pathogens that can establish and persist in primate host species with different social systems. We showed that this varies by disease transmission mode. Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) require high rates of transmissibility to persist within a primate population. In particular, for a unimale social system, STIs require extremely high rates of transmissibility for persistence, and remain at extremely low prevalence in small primates, but this is less constrained in longer-lived, larger-bodied primates. In contrast, aerosol transmitted infections (ATIs) spread and persist at high prevalence in medium and large primates with moderate transmissibility;, establishment and persistence in small-bodied primates require higher relative rates of transmissibility. Intragroup contact structure - the social network - creates different constraints for different transmission modes, and our model underscores the importance of intragroup contacts on infection prior to intergroup movement in a structured population. When alpha males dominate sexual encounters, the resulting disease transmission dynamics differ from when social interactions are dominated by mother-infant grooming events, for example. This has important repercussions for pathogen spread across populations. Our framework reveals essential social and demographic characteristics of primates that predispose them to different disease risks that will be important for disease management and conservation planning for protected primate populations.

The development of universal health insurance coverage in Thailand: Challenges of population aging and informal economy.

PubMed

Hsu, Minchung; Huang, Xianguo; Yupho, Somrasri

2015-11-01

This paper quantitatively investigates the sustainability of the universal health insurance coverage (UHI) system in Thailand while taking into account the country's rapidly aging population and large informal labor sector. We examine the effects of population aging and informal employment across three tax options for financing the UHI. A modern dynamic general equilibrium framework is utilized to conduct policy experiments and welfare analysis. In the case of labor income tax being used to finance the cost of UHI, an additional 11-15% of labor tax will be required with the 2050 population age structure, compared with the 2005 benchmark economy. We also find that an expansion of income tax base to the informal sector can substantially alleviate the tax burden. Based on welfare comparisons across the alternative tax options, the labor income tax is the most preferred because the inequality between formal/informal sectors is large. If the informal sector cannot avoid labor income tax, capital tax will be preferred over labor and consumption taxes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age‐structure data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Gogan, Peter J.

2012-01-01

It has long been recognized that age‐structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age‐specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age‐structure data.

The role of social and ecological processes in structuring animal populations: a case study from automated tracking of wild birds

PubMed Central

Farine, Damien R.; Firth, Josh A.; Aplin, Lucy M.; Crates, Ross A.; Culina, Antica; Garroway, Colin J.; Hinde, Camilla A.; Kidd, Lindall R.; Milligan, Nicole D.; Psorakis, Ioannis; Radersma, Reinder; Verhelst, Brecht; Voelkl, Bernhard; Sheldon, Ben C.

2015-01-01

Both social and ecological factors influence population process and structure, with resultant consequences for phenotypic selection on individuals. Understanding the scale and relative contribution of these two factors is thus a central aim in evolutionary ecology. In this study, we develop a framework using null models to identify the social and spatial patterns that contribute to phenotypic structure in a wild population of songbirds. We used automated technologies to track 1053 individuals that formed 73 737 groups from which we inferred a social network. Our framework identified that both social and spatial drivers contributed to assortment in the network. In particular, groups had a more even sex ratio than expected and exhibited a consistent age structure that suggested local association preferences, such as preferential attachment or avoidance. By contrast, recent immigrants were spatially partitioned from locally born individuals, suggesting differential dispersal strategies by phenotype. Our results highlight how different scales of social decision-making, ranging from post-natal dispersal settlement to fission–fusion dynamics, can interact to drive phenotypic structure in animal populations. PMID:26064644

Evolution of the stellar mass function in multiple-population globular clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vesperini, Enrico; Hong, Jongsuk; Webb, Jeremy J.; D'Antona, Franca; D'Ercole, Annibale

2018-05-01

We present the results of a survey of N-body simulations aimed at studying the effects of the long-term dynamical evolution on the stellar mass function (MF) of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters. Our simulations show that if first-(1G) and second-generation (2G) stars have the same initial MF (IMF), the global MFs of the two populations are affected similarly by dynamical evolution and no significant differences between the 1G and 2G MFs arise during the cluster's evolution. If the two populations have different IMFs, dynamical effects do not completely erase memory of the initial differences. Should observations find differences between the global 1G and 2G MFs, these would reveal the fingerprints of differences in their IMFs. Irrespective of whether the 1G and 2G populations have the same global IMF or not, dynamical effects can produce differences between the local (measured at various distances from the cluster centre) 1G and 2G MFs; these differences are a manifestation of the process of mass segregation in populations with different initial structural properties. In dynamically old and spatially mixed clusters, however, differences between the local 1G and 2G MFs can reveal differences between the 1G and 2G global MFs. In general, for clusters with any dynamical age, large differences between the local 1G and 2G MFs are more likely to be associated with differences in the global MF. Our study also reveals a dependence of the spatial mixing rate on the stellar mass, another dynamical consequence of the multiscale nature of multiple-population clusters.

Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions.

PubMed

O'Neill, Brian C; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina; Jiang, Leiwen; Pachauri, Shonali; Zigova, Katarina

2010-10-12

Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energy-economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.

Capital, population and urban patterns.

PubMed

Zhang, W

1994-04-01

The author develops an approach to urban dynamics with endogenous capital and population growth, synthesizing the Alonso location model, the two-sector neoclassical growth model, and endogenous population theory. A dynamic model for an isolated island economy with endogenous capital, population, and residential structure is developed on the basis of Alonso's residential model and the two-sector neoclassical growth model. The model describes the interdependence between residential structure, economic growth, population growth, and economic structure over time and space. It has a unique long-run equilibrium, which may be either stable or unstable, depending upon the population dynamics. Applying the Hopf theorem, the author also shows that when the system is unstable, the economic geography exhibits permanent endogenous oscillations.

Evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Aming; Broom, Mark; Du, Jinming; Wang, Long

2016-02-01

The evolution of populations is influenced by many factors, and the simple classical models have been developed in a number of important ways. Both population structure and multiplayer interactions have been shown to significantly affect the evolution of important properties, such as the level of cooperation or of aggressive behavior. Here we combine these two key factors and develop the evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations represented by regular graphs. The traditional linear and threshold public goods games are adopted as models to address the dynamics. We show that for linear group interactions, population structure can favor the evolution of cooperation compared to the well-mixed case, and we see that the more neighbors there are, the harder it is for cooperators to persist in structured populations. We further show that threshold group interactions could lead to the emergence of cooperation even in well-mixed populations. Here population structure sometimes inhibits cooperation for the threshold public goods game, where depending on the benefit to cost ratio, the outcomes are bistability or a monomorphic population of defectors or cooperators. Our results suggest, counterintuitively, that structured populations are not always beneficial for the evolution of cooperation for nonlinear group interactions.

Individual movement behavior, matrix heterogeneity, and the dynamics of spatially structured populations.

PubMed

Revilla, Eloy; Wiegand, Thorsten

2008-12-09

The dynamics of spatially structured populations is characterized by within- and between-patch processes. The available theory describes the latter with simple distance-dependent functions that depend on landscape properties such as interpatch distance or patch size. Despite its potential role, we lack a good mechanistic understanding of how the movement of individuals between patches affects the dynamics of these populations. We used the theoretical framework provided by movement ecology to make a direct representation of the processes determining how individuals connect local populations in a spatially structured population of Iberian lynx. Interpatch processes depended on the heterogeneity of the matrix where patches are embedded and the parameters defining individual movement behavior. They were also very sensitive to the dynamic demographic variables limiting the time moving, the within-patch dynamics of available settlement sites (both spatiotemporally heterogeneous) and the response of individuals to the perceived risk while moving. These context-dependent dynamic factors are an inherent part of the movement process, producing connectivities and dispersal kernels whose variability is affected by other demographic processes. Mechanistic representations of interpatch movements, such as the one provided by the movement-ecology framework, permit the dynamic interaction of birth-death processes and individual movement behavior, thus improving our understanding of stochastic spatially structured populations.

POPULATION DYNAMICS OF HISPID COTTON RATS (SIGMODON HISPIDUS) ACROSS A NITROGEN AMENDED LANDSCAPE

EPA Science Inventory

Population dynamics of some small-mammal species appear to be regulated by plant-community structure, vegetative cover, plant diversity, and food quality. Thus, plant community changes associated with nitrogen additions would likely impact dynamics and structure of small-mammal ...

Social inequality in dynamic balance performance in an early old age Spanish population: the role of health and lifestyle associated factors.

PubMed

Rodríguez López, Santiago; Nilsson, Charlotte; Lund, Rikke; Montero, Pilar; Fernández-Ballesteros, Rocío; Avlund, Kirsten

2012-01-01

This study investigates the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and dynamic balance performance and whether lifestyle factors explained any possible associations. A total of 448 nondisabled individuals, age-range 54-75 years and enrolled in the Active Aging Longitudinal Study of Spain in 2006, constituted the study population. Baseline data of this cross-sectional study were obtained by personal interviews and objective measures of balance performance. The present study shows an educational gradient in poor dynamic balance, where individuals with no formal education had higher risk of poor balance, also after adjustment for age, gender, obesity and physical activity. In addition, obesity and sedentary physical activity were related to poor dynamic balance. The findings suggest an independent effect of both SES and behavioral factors on poor balance performance in the older Spanish population. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics): an open-source software system for modeling infectious diseases and control strategies using census-based populations.

PubMed

Grefenstette, John J; Brown, Shawn T; Rosenfeld, Roni; DePasse, Jay; Stone, Nathan T B; Cooley, Phillip C; Wheaton, William D; Fyshe, Alona; Galloway, David D; Sriram, Anuroop; Guclu, Hasan; Abraham, Thomas; Burke, Donald S

2013-10-08

Mathematical and computational models provide valuable tools that help public health planners to evaluate competing health interventions, especially for novel circumstances that cannot be examined through observational or controlled studies, such as pandemic influenza. The spread of diseases like influenza depends on the mixing patterns within the population, and these mixing patterns depend in part on local factors including the spatial distribution and age structure of the population, the distribution of size and composition of households, employment status and commuting patterns of adults, and the size and age structure of schools. Finally, public health planners must take into account the health behavior patterns of the population, patterns that often vary according to socioeconomic factors such as race, household income, and education levels. FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics) is a freely available open-source agent-based modeling system based closely on models used in previously published studies of pandemic influenza. This version of FRED uses open-access census-based synthetic populations that capture the demographic and geographic heterogeneities of the population, including realistic household, school, and workplace social networks. FRED epidemic models are currently available for every state and county in the United States, and for selected international locations. State and county public health planners can use FRED to explore the effects of possible influenza epidemics in specific geographic regions of interest and to help evaluate the effect of interventions such as vaccination programs and school closure policies. FRED is available under a free open source license in order to contribute to the development of better modeling tools and to encourage open discussion of modeling tools being used to evaluate public health policies. We also welcome participation by other researchers in the further development of FRED.

Paths for Future Population Aging.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grigsby, Jill S.

Population aging refers to an entire age structure becoming older. The age structure of a population is the result of three basic processes: fertility, mortality, and migration. Age structures reflect both past effects and current patterns of these processes. At the town, city, or regional level, migration becomes an important factor in raising…

Population Biology of Intestinal Enterococcus Isolates from Hospitalized and Nonhospitalized Individuals in Different Age Groups

PubMed Central

Tedim, Ana P.; Ruiz-Garbajosa, Patricia; Corander, Jukka; Rodríguez, Concepción M.; Cantón, Rafael; Willems, Rob J.; Baquero, Fernando

2014-01-01

The diversity of enterococcal populations from fecal samples from hospitalized (n = 133) and nonhospitalized individuals (n = 173) of different age groups (group I, ages 0 to 19 years; group II, ages 20 to 59 years; group III, ages ≥60 years) was analyzed. Enterococci were recovered at similar rates from hospitalized and nonhospitalized persons (77.44% to 79.77%) of all age groups (75.0% to 82.61%). Enterococcus faecalis and Enterococcus faecium were predominant, although seven other Enterococcus species were identified. E. faecalis and E. faecium (including ampicillin-resistant E. faecium) colonization rates in nonhospitalized persons were age independent. For inpatients, E. faecalis colonization rates were age independent, but E. faecium colonization rates (particularly the rates of ampicillin-resistant E. faecium colonization) significantly increased with age. The population structure of E. faecium and E. faecalis was determined by superimposing goeBURST and Bayesian analysis of the population structure (BAPS). Most E. faecium sequence types (STs; 150 isolates belonging to 75 STs) were linked to BAPS groups 1 (22.0%), 2 (31.3%), and 3 (36.7%). A positive association between hospital isolates and BAPS subgroups 2.1a and 3.3a (which included major ampicillin-resistant E. faecium human lineages) and between community-based ampicillin-resistant E. faecium isolates and BAPS subgroups 1.2 and 3.3b was found. Most E. faecalis isolates (130 isolates belonging to 58 STs) were grouped into 3 BAPS groups, BAPS groups 1 (36.9%), 2 (40.0%), and 3 (23.1%), with each one comprising widespread lineages. No positive associations with age or hospitalization were established. The diversity and dynamics of enterococcal populations in the fecal microbiota of healthy humans are largely unexplored, with the available knowledge being fragmented and contradictory. The study offers a novel and comprehensive analysis of enterococcal population landscapes and suggests that E. faecium populations from hospitalized patients and from community-based individuals differ, with a predominance of certain clonal lineages, often in association with elderly individuals, occurring in the hospital setting. PMID:25548052

Simulating the multicellular homeostasis with a cell-based discrete receptor dynamics model: The non-mutational origin of cancer and aging.

PubMed

Lou, Yuting; Chen, Yu

2016-09-07

The purpose of the study is to investigate the multicellular homeostasis in epithelial tissues over very large timescales. Inspired by the receptor dynamics of IBCell model proposed by Rejniak et al. an on-grid agent-based model for multicellular system is constructed. Instead of observing the multicellular architectural morphologies, the diversity of homeostatic states is quantitatively analyzed through a substantial number of simulations by measuring three new order parameters, the phenotypic population structure, the average proliferation age and the relaxation time to stable homeostasis. Nearby the interfaces of distinct homeostatic phases in 3D phase diagrams of the three order parameters, intermediate quasi-stable phases of slow dynamics that features quasi-stability with a large spectrum of relaxation timescales are found. A further exploration on the static and dynamic correlations among the three order parameters reveals that the quasi-stable phases evolve towards two terminations, tumorigenesis and degeneration, which are respectively accompanied by rejuvenation and aging. With the exclusion of the environmental impact and the mutational strategies, the results imply that cancer and aging may share the non-mutational origin in the intrinsic slow dynamics of the multicellular systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[The dynamics of heath indicators of population of industrial town].

PubMed

Kalinkin, D E; Karpov, A B; Takhauov, R M; Samoĭlova, Iu A

2013-01-01

The article presents the results of analysis of dynamics of health indicators of population of industrial town (medical demographic indicators, disability, morbidity of social hygienically important diseases) during 1970-2010. The classified administrative territorial municipality of Seversk constructed near the Siberian chemical industrial center, the internationally first-rate complex of nuclear industry enterprises was used as a research base. It is demonstrated that dynamics of health indicators of studied population had such negative tendencies as rapid population ageing, population loss due to decrease of natality and increase of mortality (population of able-bodied age included), prevalence of cardio-vascular diseases, malignant neoplasms and external causes, chronization of diseases. The established tendencies are to be considered in management decision making targeted to support and promote population health in industrial towns.

Age Determination by Back Length for African Savanna Elephants: Extending Age Assessment Techniques for Aerial-Based Surveys

PubMed Central

Trimble, Morgan J.; van Aarde, Rudi J.; Ferreira, Sam M.; Nørgaard, Camilla F.; Fourie, Johan; Lee, Phyllis C.; Moss, Cynthia J.

2011-01-01

Determining the age of individuals in a population can lead to a better understanding of population dynamics through age structure analysis and estimation of age-specific fecundity and survival rates. Shoulder height has been used to accurately assign age to free-ranging African savanna elephants. However, back length may provide an analog measurable in aerial-based surveys. We assessed the relationship between back length and age for known-age elephants in Amboseli National Park, Kenya, and Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa. We also compared age- and sex-specific back lengths between these populations and compared adult female back lengths across 11 widely dispersed populations in five African countries. Sex-specific Von Bertalanffy growth curves provided a good fit to the back length data of known-age individuals. Based on back length, accurate ages could be assigned relatively precisely for females up to 23 years of age and males up to 17. The female back length curve allowed more precise age assignment to older females than the curve for shoulder height does, probably because of divergence between the respective growth curves. However, this did not appear to be the case for males, but the sample of known-age males was limited to ≤27 years. Age- and sex-specific back lengths were similar in Amboseli National Park and Addo Elephant National Park. Furthermore, while adult female back lengths in the three Zambian populations were generally shorter than in other populations, back lengths in the remaining eight populations did not differ significantly, in support of claims that growth patterns of African savanna elephants are similar over wide geographic regions. Thus, the growth curves presented here should allow researchers to use aerial-based surveys to assign ages to elephants with greater precision than previously possible and, therefore, to estimate population variables. PMID:22028925

Conservation genetics of managed ungulate populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, Kim T.

1993-01-01

Natural populations of many species are increasingly impacted by human activities. Perturbations are particularly pronunced for large ungulates due in part to sport and commercial harvest, to reductions and fragmentation of native habitat, and as the result of reintroductions. These perturbations affect population size, sex and age composition, and population breeding structure, and as a consequence affect the levels and partitioning of genetic variation. Three case histories highlighting long-term ecological genetic research on mule deer Odocoileus hemionus (Rafinesque, 1817), white-tailed deer O. virginianus (Zimmermann, 1780), and Alpine ibex Capra i. ibex Linnaeus, 1758 are presented. Joint examinations of population ecological and genetic data from several populations of each species reveal: (1) that populations are not in genetic equilibrium, but that allele frequencies and heterozygosity change dramatically over time and among cohorts produced in successive years, (2) populations are genetically structured over short and large geographic distances reflecting local breeding structure and patterns of gene flow, respectively; however, this structure is quite dynamic over time, due in part to population exploitation, and (3) restocking programs are often undertaken with small numbers of founding individuals resulting in dramatic declines in levels of genetic variability and increasing levels of genetic differentiation among populations due to genetic drift. Genetic characteristics have and will continue to provide valuable indirect sources of information relating enviromental and human perturbations to changes in population processes.

Age-Sex Structure of the Population and Demographic Processes in Environmentally Challenged Mining Region (on the example of Kemerovo region)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leshukov, Timofey; Brel, Olga; Zaytseva, Anna; Kaizer, Philipp; Makarov, Kirill

2017-11-01

The main goal of the article is to show the influence of the age-sex structure of the population on the basic demographic processes in the Kemerovo region. During research the authors have established correlation links between the sex-age structure of the population and the main demographic indicators (birth and mortality rate, morbidity rate, migration and others) based on the analysis of official statistical data. The direct influence of internal and external factors on the age-sex structure of the population is revealed. Conclusions about the impact of demographic processes on the sex-age structure of the population of the Kemerovo region are drawn.

Sola schola et sanitate: human capital as the root cause and priority for international development?

PubMed Central

Lutz, Wolfgang

2009-01-01

This paper summarizes new scientific evidence supporting the hypothesis that among the many factors contributing to international development, the combination of education and health stands out as a root cause on which other dimensions of development depend. Much of this recent analysis is based on new reconstructions and projections of populations by age, sex and four levels of educational attainment for more than 120 countries using the demographic method of multi-state population dynamics. It also refers to a series of systems analytical population–development–environment case studies that comprehensively assess the role of population and education factors relative to other factors in the struggle for sustainable development. The paper also claims that most concerns about the consequences of population trends are in fact concerns about human capital, and that only by adding the ‘quality’ dimension of education to the traditionally narrow focus on size and age structure can some of the long-standing population controversies be resolved. PMID:19770154

Influence of body condition on the population dynamics of Atlantic salmon with consideration of the potential impact of sea lice.

PubMed

Susdorf, R; Salama, N K G; Lusseau, D

2017-11-21

Atlantic salmon Salmo salar is an iconic species of high conservation and economic importance. At sea, individuals typically are subject to sea lice infestation, which can have detrimental effects on their host. Over recent decades, the body condition and marine survival in NE Atlantic stocks have generally decreased, reflected in fewer adults returning to rivers, which is partly attributable to sea lice. We developed a deterministic stage-structured population model to assess condition-mediated population dynamics resulting in changing fecundity, age at sexual maturation and marine survival rate. The model is parameterized using data from the North Esk system, north-east Scotland. Both constant and density-dependent juvenile survival rates are considered. We show that even small sea lice-mediated changes in mean body condition of MSW can cause substantial population declines, whereas 1SW condition is less influential. Density dependence alleviates the condition-mediated population effect. The resilience of the population to demographic perturbations declines as adult condition is reduced. Indirect demographic changes in salmonid life-history traits (e.g., body condition) are often considered unimportant for population trajectory. The model shows that Atlantic salmon population dynamics can be highly responsive to sea lice-mediated effects on adult body condition, thus highlighting the importance of non-lethal parasitic long-term effects. © 2017 The Authors Journal of Fish Diseases Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using Dynamic Stochastic Modelling to Estimate Population Risk Factors in Infectious Disease: The Example of FIV in 15 Cat Populations

PubMed Central

Fouchet, David; Leblanc, Guillaume; Sauvage, Frank; Guiserix, Micheline; Poulet, Hervé; Pontier, Dominique

2009-01-01

Background In natural cat populations, Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV) is transmitted through bites between individuals. Factors such as the density of cats within the population or the sex-ratio can have potentially strong effects on the frequency of fight between individuals and hence appear as important population risk factors for FIV. Methodology/Principal Findings To study such population risk factors, we present data on FIV prevalence in 15 cat populations in northeastern France. We investigate five key social factors of cat populations; the density of cats, the sex-ratio, the number of males and the mean age of males and females within the population. We overcome the problem of dependence in the infective status data using sexually-structured dynamic stochastic models. Only the age of males and females had an effect (p = 0.043 and p = 0.02, respectively) on the male-to-female transmission rate. Due to multiple tests, it is even likely that these effects are, in reality, not significant. Finally we show that, in our study area, the data can be explained by a very simple model that does not invoke any risk factor. Conclusion Our conclusion is that, in host-parasite systems in general, fluctuations due to stochasticity in the transmission process are naturally very large and may alone explain a larger part of the variability in observed disease prevalence between populations than previously expected. Finally, we determined confidence intervals for the simple model parameters that can be used to further aid in management of the disease. PMID:19888418

Population dynamics of HIV-1 inferred from gene sequences.

PubMed Central

Grassly, N C; Harvey, P H; Holmes, E C

1999-01-01

A method for the estimation of population dynamic history from sequence data is described and used to investigate the past population dynamics of HIV-1 subtypes A and B. Using both gag and env gene alignments the effective population size of each subtype is estimated and found to be surprisingly small. This may be a result of the selective sweep of mutations through the population, or may indicate an important role of genetic drift in the fixation of mutations. The implications of these results for the spread of drug-resistant mutations and transmission dynamics, and also the roles of selection and recombination in shaping HIV-1 genetic diversity, are discussed. A larger estimated effective population size for subtype A may be the result of differences in time of origin, transmission dynamics, and/or population structure. To investigate the importance of population structure a model of population subdivision was fitted to each subtype, although the improvement in likelihood was found to be nonsignificant. PMID:9927440

Migration in Afro-Brazilian rural communities: crossing demographic and genetic data.

PubMed

Amorim, Carlos Eduardo G; Gontijo, Carolina C; Falcão-Alencar, Gabriel; Godinho, Neide M O; Toledo, Rafaela C P; Pedrosa, Maria Angélica F; Luizon, Marcelo R; Simões, Aguinaldo L; Klautau-Guimãres, Maria N; Oliveira, Silviene F

2011-08-01

Many studies have used genetic markers to understand global migration patterns of our species. However, there are only few studies of human migration on a local scale. We, therefore, researched migration dynamics in three Afro-Brazilian rural communities, using demographic data and ten Ancestry Informative Markers. In addition to the description of migration and marriage structures, we carried out genetic comparisons between the three populations, as well as between locals and migrants from each community. Genetic admixture analyses were conducted according to the gene-identity method, with Sub-Saharan Africans, Amerindians, and Europeans as parental populations. The three analyzed Afro-Brazilian rural communities consisted of 16% to 30% of migrants, most of them women. The age pyramid revealed a gap in the segment of men aged between 20 to 30 yrs. While endogamous marriages predominated, exogamous marriages were mainly patrilocal. Migration dynamics are apparently associated with matrimonial customs and other social practices of such communities. The impact of migration upon the populations' genetic composition was low but showed an increase in European alleles with a concomitant decrease in the Amerindian contribution. Admixture analysis evidenced a higher African contribution to the gene pool of the studied populations, followed by the contribution of Europeans and Amerindians, respectively.

Population structure and fruit production of Pyrus bourgaeana D. are affected by land-use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arenas-Castro, Salvador; Fernández-Haeger, Juan; Jordano-Barbudo, Diego

2016-11-01

The Iberian wild pear (Pyrus bourgaeana D.) is a rare, fleshy-fruited tree restricted to dehesas and evergreen sclerophyllous Mediterranean forests in the southwestern Iberian Peninsula. It produces palatable fruits and leaves attractive to different species groups, playing an important trophic role in the ecological networks of Mediterranean ecosystems. However, the intensification in the traditional land-use linked to these areas could threaten the stability of the wild pear populations in the short/medium-term. In order to determine the population dynamics of this relevant species in relation to the land-use history, we selected two populations (southern Spain) subjected to different land-use management, dehesa (D) and abandoned olive grove (AOG). An analysis of 122 adult trees reported an overall density of 0.6 trees ha-1. The tree age was estimated by tree-rings analysis in all adult trees. Dendrometric parameters, reproductive features, and germination rates were also measured. Regeneration was clearly biased, as evidenced by the truncated age structure. A low correlation (R2 = 34%) between age and DBH (diameter at breast height) (244 cores analysed) showed that diameter seems not to be a reliable predictor of tree age. Trees from AOG populations had significantly-higher values of DBH, height and crown diameter, but were less productive in terms of fruits and seeds. Nested analysis of variance showed significant variation in fruit production, fruit size, dry mass, water content and seed viability. There were also significant differences in masting. No evidence was found to demonstrate that fruit production, seed viability, or germination rate influence the low natural recruitment of this species. These findings indicate that the traditional agrosilvopastoral practices carried out in the study area for decades, and its subsequent intensification, have strongly influenced the ecological structure of the Iberian wild pear populations at the local scale, which could compromise its stability in the near future.

Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations.

PubMed

Fournié, Guillaume; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Bendrey, Robin

2017-02-01

Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella . Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis , the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen.

Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, Dirk U.; Bendrey, Robin

2017-01-01

Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella. Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis, the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen. PMID:28386446

Successional changes in trophic interactions support a mechanistic model of post-fire population dynamics.

PubMed

Smith, Annabel L

2018-01-01

Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.

Domestic dog demographic structure and dynamics relevant to rabies control planning in urban areas in Africa: the case of Iringa, Tanzania

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Mass vaccinations of domestic dogs have been shown to effectively control canine rabies and hence human exposure to rabies. Knowledge of dog population demography is essential for planning effective rabies vaccination programmes; however, such information is still rare for African domestic dog populations, particularly so in urban areas. This study describes the demographic structure and population dynamics of a domestic dog population in an urban sub-Saharan African setting. In July to November 2005, we conducted a full household-level census and a cross-sectional dog demography survey in four urban wards of Iringa Municipality, Tanzania. The achievable vaccination coverage was assessed by a two-stage vaccination campaign, and the proportion of feral dogs was estimated by a mark-recapture transect study. Results The estimated size of the domestic dog population in Iringa was six times larger than official town records assumed, however, the proportion of feral dogs was estimated to account for less than 1% of the whole population. An average of 13% of all households owned dogs which equalled a dog:human ratio of 1:14, or 0.31 dogs per household or 334 dogs km-2. Dog female:male ratio was 1:1.4. The average age of the population was 2.2 years, 52% of all individuals were less than one year old. But mortality within the first year was high (72%). Females became fertile at the age of 10 months and reportedly remained fertile up to the age of 11 years. The average number of litters whelped per fertile female per year was 0.6 with an average of 5.5 pups born per litter. The population growth was estimated at 10% y-1. Conclusions Such high birth and death rates result in a rapid replacement of anti-rabies immunised individuals with susceptible ones. This loss in herd immunity needs to be taken into account in the design of rabies control programmes. The very small proportion of truly feral dogs in the population implies that vaccination campaigns aimed at the owned dog population are sufficient to control rabies in urban Iringa, and the same may be valid in other, comparable urban settings. PMID:23217194

Growth patterns of an intertidal gastropod as revealed by oxygen isotope analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bean, J. R.; Hill, T. M.; Guerra, C.

2007-12-01

The size and morphology of mollusk shells are affected by environmental conditions. As a result, it is difficult to assess growth rate, population age structure, shell morphologies associated with ontogenetic stages, and to compare life history patterns across various environments. Oxygen isotope analysis is a useful tool for estimating minimum ages and growth rates of calcium carbonate secreting organisms. Calcite shell material from members of two northern California populations of the intertidal muricid gastropod Acanthinucella spirata was sampled for isotopic analysis. Individual shells were sampled from apex to margin, thus providing a sequential record of juvenile and adult growth. A. spirata were collected from a sheltered habitat in Tomales Bay and from an exposed reef in Bolinas. Abiotic factors, such as temperature, wave exposure, and substrate consistency, and biotic composition differ significantly between these sites, possibly resulting in local adaptations and variation in life history and growth patterns. Shell morphology of A. spirata changes with age as internal shell margin thickenings of denticle rows associated with external growth bands are irregularly accreted. It is not known when, either seasonally and/or ontogentically, these thickenings and bands form or whether inter or intra-populational variation exists. Preliminary results demonstrate the seasonal oxygen isotopic variability present at the two coastal sites, indicating 5-6 degC changes from winter to summertime temperatures; these data are consistent with local intertidal temperature records. Analysis of the seasonal patterns indicate that: 1) differences in growth rate and seasonal growth patterns at different ontogenetic stages within populations, and 2) differences in growth patterns and possibly age structure between the two A. spirata populations. These findings indicate that isotopic analyses, in addition to field observations and morphological measurements, are necessary to assess life history strategies and compare population dynamics under varying environmental conditions.

Considering transient population dynamics in the conservation of slow life-history species: An application to the sandhill crane

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.

2016-01-01

The importance of transient dynamics of structured populations is increasingly recognized in ecology, yet these implications are not largely considered in conservation practices. We investigate transient and long-term population dynamics to demonstrate the process and utility of incorporating transient dynamics into conservation research and to better understand the population management of slow life-history species; these species can be theoretically highly sensitive to short- and long-term transient effects. We are specifically interested in the effects of anthropogenic removal of individuals from populations, such as caused by harvest, poaching, translocation, or incidental take. We use the sandhill crane (Grus canadensis) as an exemplar species; it is long-lived, has low reproduction, late maturity, and multiple populations are subject to sport harvest. We found sandhill cranes to have extremely high potential, but low likelihood for transient dynamics, even when the population is being harvested. The typically low population growth rate of slow life-history species appears to buffer against many perturbations causing large transient effects. Transient dynamics will dominate population trajectories of these species when stage structures are highly biased towards the younger and non-reproducing individuals, a situation that may be rare in established populations of long-lived animals. However, short-term transient population growth can be highly sensitive to vital rates that are relatively insensitive under equilibrium, suggesting that stage structure should be known if perturbation analysis is used to identify effective conservation strategies. For populations of slow life-history species that are not prone to large perturbations to their most productive individuals, population growth may be approximated by equilibrium dynamics.

Forest expansion and climate change in the Mountain Hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) zone, Lassen Volcanic National Park, California, U.S.A.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taylor, A.H.

1995-08-01

The relationship between climate change and the dynamics of ecotonal populations of mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana [Bong.] Carr.) was determined by comparing climate and the age structure of trees from 24 plots and seedlings from 13 plots in the subalpine zone of Lassen Volcanic National Park, California. Tree establishment was greatest during periods with above normal annual and summer temperatures, and normal or above normal precipitation. Seedling establishment was positively correlated with above normal annual and summer temperatures and negatively correlated with April snowpack depth. The different responses of trees and seedlings to precipitation variation is probably related to sitemore » soil moisture conditions. Mountain hemlock populations began to expand in 1842 and establishment increased dramatically after 1880 and peaked during a warm mesic period between 1895 and 1910. The onset of forest expansion coincides with warming that began at the end of the Little Ice Age (1850-1880). These data indicate that stability of the mountain hemlock ecotone is strongly influenced by climate. If warming induced by greenhouse gases does occur as climate models predict, then the structure and dynamics of near timberline forests in the Pacific Northwest will change. 52 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures.

PubMed

Buffoni, Giuseppe; Pasquali, Sara

2007-04-01

A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.

Simulated population responses of common carp to commercial exploitation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weber, Michael J.; Hennen, Matthew J.; Brown, Michael L.

2011-12-01

Common carp Cyprinus carpio is a widespread invasive species that can become highly abundant and impose deleterious ecosystem effects. Thus, aquatic resource managers are interested in controlling common carp populations. Control of invasive common carp populations is difficult, due in part to the inherent uncertainty of how populations respond to exploitation. To understand how common carp populations respond to exploitation, we evaluated common carp population dynamics (recruitment, growth, and mortality) in three natural lakes in eastern South Dakota. Common carp exhibited similar population dynamics across these three systems that were characterized by consistent recruitment (ages 3 to 15 years present),more » fast growth (K = 0.37 to 0.59), and low mortality (A = 1 to 7%). We then modeled the effects of commercial exploitation on size structure, abundance, and egg production to determine its utility as a management tool to control populations. All three populations responded similarly to exploitation simulations with a 575-mm length restriction, representing commercial gear selectivity. Simulated common carp size structure modestly declined (9 to 37%) in all simulations. Abundance of common carp declined dramatically (28 to 56%) at low levels of exploitation (0 to 20%) but exploitation >40% had little additive effect and populations were only reduced by 49 to 79% despite high exploitation (>90%). Maximum lifetime egg production was reduced from 77 to 89% at a moderate level of exploitation (40%), indicating the potential for recruitment overfishing. Exploitation further reduced common carp size structure, abundance, and egg production when simulations were not size selective. Our results provide insights to how common carp populations may respond to exploitation. Although commercial exploitation may be able to partially control populations, an integrated removal approach that removes all sizes of common carp has a greater chance of controlling population abundance and reducing perturbations induced by this invasive species.« less

Environmental Change and Disease Dynamics: Effects of Intensive Forest Management on Puumala Hantavirus Infection in Boreal Bank Vole Populations

PubMed Central

Voutilainen, Liina; Savola, Sakeri; Kallio, Eva Riikka; Laakkonen, Juha; Vaheri, Antti; Vapalahti, Olli; Henttonen, Heikki

2012-01-01

Intensive management of Fennoscandian forests has led to a mosaic of woodlands in different stages of maturity. The main rodent host of the zoonotic Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is the bank vole (Myodes glareolus), a species that can be found in all woodlands and especially mature forests. We investigated the influence of forest age structure on PUUV infection dynamics in bank voles. Over four years, we trapped small mammals twice a year in a forest network of different succession stages in Northern Finland. Our study sites represented four forest age classes from young (4 to 30 years) to mature (over 100 years) forests. We show that PUUV-infected bank voles occurred commonly in all forest age classes, but peaked in mature forests. The probability of an individual bank vole to be PUUV infected was positively related to concurrent host population density. However, when population density was controlled for, a relatively higher infection rate was observed in voles trapped in younger forests. Furthermore, we found evidence of a “dilution effect” in that the infection probability was negatively associated with the simultaneous density of other small mammals during the breeding season. Our results suggest that younger forests created by intensive management can reduce hantaviral load in the environment, but PUUV is common in woodlands of all ages. As such, the Fennoscandian forest landscape represents a significant reservoir and source of hantaviral infection in humans. PMID:22745755

Demographic patterns of Ferocactus cylindraceus in relation to substrate age and grazing history

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, Janice E.

1997-01-01

Three subpopulations of Ferocactus cylindraceus, a short-columnar cactus of the Sonoran and Mojave deserts, were sampled in Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA, at sites representing a range of substrate ages and different grazing histories. Age-height relations were determined from annual growth, then used to estimate probable year of establishment for each cohort. Eight years between 1944 and 1992 were especially favorable for establishment. Six of these 8 years coincided with El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions, indicating that as for many woody plants in arid regions, somewhat unusual climatic conditions are necessary if populations are to replace themselves. Comparison of age structures showed that established and developing populations have somewhat different dynamics in that the rate of population increase was slowest on the youngest terrace. On the ancient terraces, about half the plants were less than 25 years old. Plants older than 40 years were few; however the oldest plants in the study (about 49 years) grew on the ancient terraces. On the recent terrace, 76% of the subpopulation was 25 years or younger, and the oldest living plant was about 36 years of age. The age structures of subpopulations on grazed and ungrazed sites also differed markedly. On ungrazed sites, subpopulations were more or less at equilibrium, with enough young plants to replace old ones as they died. In contrast, the subpopulation on the grazed site was in a state of marked disequilibrium. Grazing before 1981 largely extirpated a palatable subshrub that was probably an important nurse plant. Until the shrub population at Indian Canyon recovers from decades of burro grazing, a rebound in E cylindraceus establishment is not to be expected.

Modeling Cancer Cell Growth Dynamics In vitro in Response to Antimitotic Drug Treatment

PubMed Central

Lorz, Alexander; Botesteanu, Dana-Adriana; Levy, Doron

2017-01-01

Investigating the role of intrinsic cell heterogeneity emerging from variations in cell-cycle parameters and apoptosis is a crucial step toward better informing drug administration. Antimitotic agents, widely used in chemotherapy, target exclusively proliferative cells and commonly induce a prolonged mitotic arrest followed by cell death via apoptosis. In this paper, we developed a physiologically motivated mathematical framework for describing cancer cell growth dynamics that incorporates the intrinsic heterogeneity in the time individual cells spend in the cell-cycle and apoptosis process. More precisely, our model comprises two age-structured partial differential equations for the proliferative and apoptotic cell compartments and one ordinary differential equation for the quiescent compartment. To reflect the intrinsic cell heterogeneity that governs the growth dynamics, proliferative and apoptotic cells are structured in “age,” i.e., the amount of time remaining to be spent in each respective compartment. In our model, we considered an antimitotic drug whose effect on the cellular dynamics is to induce mitotic arrest, extending the average cell-cycle length. The prolonged mitotic arrest induced by the drug can trigger apoptosis if the time a cell will spend in the cell cycle is greater than the mitotic arrest threshold. We studied the drug’s effect on the long-term cancer cell growth dynamics using different durations of prolonged mitotic arrest induced by the drug. Our numerical simulations suggest that at confluence and in the absence of the drug, quiescence is the long-term asymptotic behavior emerging from the cancer cell growth dynamics. This pattern is maintained in the presence of small increases in the average cell-cycle length. However, intermediate increases in cell-cycle length markedly decrease the total number of cells and can drive the cancer population to extinction. Intriguingly, a large “switch-on/switch-off” increase in the average cell-cycle length maintains an active cell population in the long term, with oscillating numbers of proliferative cells and a relatively constant quiescent cell number. PMID:28913178

Influence of climatic variability on local population dynamics of a Sonoran Desert platyopuntia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, Janice E.

2005-01-01

Age-based population dynamics of Opuntia engelmannii, a shrubby cactus with flattened cladodes, were investigated at a Sonoran Desert site protected from grazing since 1907. Demographic statistics were determined from births and deaths on six permanent vegetation plots mapped four times between 1968 and 2001. Moderate longevity (13-56 years) and modest per capita annual survival (0.9298) were associated with fairly rapid turnover; cycles of population growth and decline were thus evident over relatively short periods. Age-frequency distribution, determined for subpopulations in two neighboring habitats in 1996 and 2003, was used to calculate residual regeneration, an index of the difference between observed cohort size and idealized survivorship. Establishment peaks occurred in the late 1970s, the mid-1980s, and the early to mid-1990s and coincided with increased winter moisture in the years before germination, ample summer rain in the year of germination, and decreased drought in the years after germination, reflecting favorable conditions for fruit production, seed germination, and seedling survival. Regionally, pulses and gaps in establishment coincide with the frequency and amplitude of large-scale climatic phenomena that affect cycles of moisture and drought on decadal and interdecadal scales. Because of local factors, however, subpopulations within a few km of one another can experience virtually identical climates yet differ strikingly in age structure and density. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Depressed resilience of bluefin tuna in the western atlantic and age truncation.

PubMed

Secor, D H; Rooker, J R; Gahagan, B I; Siskey, M R; Wingate, R W

2015-04-01

Following intense overfishing in the 1970s, the western stock of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) experienced a long period of depressed abundance, which has been attributed to failure of the population to periodically produce large numbers of juveniles, the western stock mixing with the more highly exploited eastern stock (fisheries in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea), and regime shift in the population's ecosystem resulting in lower replacement rates. To evaluate the presence of relatively strong years of juvenile production, we analyzed age structure from a recent sample of otoliths (ear stones) collected from the western stock (2011-2013, North Carolina, U.S.A., winter fishery). Mixing levels for the recent sample were analyzed using otolith stable isotopes to test whether age structure might be biased through immigration of eastern stock bluefin tuna. Age structure from historical samples collected from United States and Canadian fisheries (1975-1981) was compared with more recent samples (1996-2007) to examine whether demographic changes had occurred to the western stock that might have disrupted juvenile production. Relatively high juvenile production occurred in 2003, 2005, and 2006. Otolith stable isotope analysis showed that these recruitments were mostly of western stock origin. However, these high recruitments were >2-fold less than historical recruitment. We found substantial age truncation in the sampled fisheries. Half the historical sample was >20 years old (mean age = 20.1 [SD 3.7]; skewness = -0.3), whereas <5% of the recent sample was >20 years old (mean age = 13.4 [SD 3.8]; skewness = 1.3). Loss of age structure is consistent with changes in fishing selectivity and trends in the stock assessment used for management. We propose that fishing, as a forcing variable, brought about a threshold shift in the western stock toward lower biomass and production, a shift that emulates the regime shift hypothesis. An abbreviated reproductive life span compromised resilience by reducing the period over which adults spawn and thereby curtailing the stock's ability to sample year-to-year variability in conditions that favor offspring survival (i.e., storage effect). Because recruitment dynamics by the western stock exhibit threshold dynamics, returning it to a higher production state will entail greater reductions in exploitation rates. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Using satellite telemetry to define spatial population structure in polar bears in the Norwegian and western Russian Arctic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mauritzen, Mette; Derocher, Andrew E.; Wiig, Øystein; Belikov, Stanislav; Boltunov, Andrei N.; Garner, Gerald W.

2002-01-01

1. Animal populations, defined by geographical areas within a species’ distribution where population dynamics are largely regulated by births and deaths rather than by migration from surrounding areas, may be the correct unit for wildlife management. However, in heterogeneous landscapes varying habitat quality may yield subpopulations with distinct patterns in resource use and demography significant to the dynamics of populations.2. To define the spatial population structure of polar bears Ursus maritimus in the Norwegian and western Russian Arctic, and to assess the existence of a shared population between the two countries, we analysed satellite telemetry data obtained from 105 female polar bears over 12 years.3. Using both cluster analyses and home-range estimation methods, we identified five population units inhabiting areas with different sea-ice characteristics and prey availability.4. The continuous distribution of polar bear positions indicated that the different subpopulations formed one continuous polar bear population in the Norwegian and western Russian Arctic. Hence, Norway and Russia have a shared management responsibility.5. The spatial population structure identified will provide a guide for evaluating geographical patterns in polar bear ecology, the dynamics of polar bear–seal relationships and the effects of habitat alteration due to climate change. The work illustrates the importance of defining population borders and subpopulation structure in understanding the dynamics and management of larger animals.

Influence of Smallmouth Bass predation on recruitment of age-0 Yellow Perch in South Dakota glacial lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dembkowski, Daniel J.; Willis, D.W.; Blackwell, B. G.; Chipps, Steven R.; Bacula, T. D.; Wuellner, M.R.

2015-01-01

We estimated the influence of predation by Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu on recruitment of age-0 Yellow Perch Perca flavescens in two northeastern South Dakota glacial lakes. We estimated a likely range in consumption of age-0 Yellow Perch using Smallmouth Bass diet information from two time periods when age-0 Yellow Perch constituted high (2008) and low (2012 and 2013) proportions of Smallmouth Bass diets, and bass population size estimates as inputs in a bioenergetics model. The proportion of age-0 Yellow Perch consumed by the Smallmouth Bass populations was determined by comparing estimates of consumption with estimates of age-0 perch production. During 2008, age-0 Yellow Perch constituted between 0% and 42% of Smallmouth Bass diets by weight, whereas during 2012 and 2013, age-0 perch constituted between 0% and 20% of bass diets by weight. Across both lakes and time periods, production of age-0 Yellow Perch ranged from 0.32 to 1.78 kg·ha−1·week−1. Estimates of Smallmouth Bass consumption measured during the same intervals ranged from 0.06 to 0.33 kg·ha−1·week−1, equating to consumption of between 1% and 34% of the available Yellow Perch biomass. Given current conditions relative to Smallmouth Bass abundance and consumption dynamics and production of age-0 Yellow Perch, it does not appear that Smallmouth Bass predation acts as a singular factor limiting recruitment of age-0 Yellow Perch in our study lakes. However, future research and management initiatives should recognize that the long-term impact of Smallmouth Bass predation is not static and will likely fluctuate depending on environmental (e.g., temperature) and biotic (e.g., trends in macrophyte abundance, predator and prey population structure and abundance, and predatory fish assemblage dynamics) characteristics.

Secondary production of the fiddler crab Uca rapax from mangrove areas under anthropogenic eutrophication in the Western Atlantic, Brazil.

PubMed

Costa, Tarso de M M; Soares-Gomes, Abilio

2015-12-30

Fiddler crabs Uca rapax were analyzed in three mangrove areas located in both a lagoon and estuarine system in order to study the influence of eutrophication on their population dynamics and production. Populations at the three sites showed a biased sex ratio. Densities were similar at the three sites, but biomass was higher at the lagoon system. Despite biomass being higher at the most eutrophic site, this site exhibited the lowest production. Regarding age structure, the population inhabiting the less eutrophic site mainly comprised younger crabs. The lower production and smaller P/B ratio found in the more eutrophic site were most likely consequences of a high mortality rate and an aged population. Our study evidences the high plasticity of the fiddler crab U. rapax, and confirms secondary production and P/B ratio estimates as useful tools to assess the effects of environmental change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effective Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue for a correlated random map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pool, Roman R.; Cáceres, Manuel O.

2010-09-01

We investigate the evolution of random positive linear maps with various type of disorder by analytic perturbation and direct simulation. Our theoretical result indicates that the statistics of a random linear map can be successfully described for long time by the mean-value vector state. The growth rate can be characterized by an effective Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue that strongly depends on the type of correlation between the elements of the projection matrix. We apply this approach to an age-structured population dynamics model. We show that the asymptotic mean-value vector state characterizes the population growth rate when the age-structured model has random vital parameters. In this case our approach reveals the nontrivial dependence of the effective growth rate with cross correlations. The problem was reduced to the calculation of the smallest positive root of a secular polynomial, which can be obtained by perturbations in terms of Green’s function diagrammatic technique built with noncommutative cumulants for arbitrary n -point correlations.

Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2014-11-01

Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean population size. Results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of a species over its range may be facilitated by taking the spatial structure of population size into account as well as by considering changes in population processes as a function of position within the range of the species. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

The impact of demographic change on the estimated future burden of infectious diseases: examples from hepatitis B and seasonal influenza in the Netherlands

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background For accurate estimation of the future burden of communicable diseases, the dynamics of the population at risk – namely population growth and population ageing – need to be taken into account. Accurate burden estimates are necessary for informing policy-makers regarding the planning of vaccination and other control, intervention, and prevention measures. Our aim was to qualitatively explore the impact of population ageing on the estimated future burden of seasonal influenza and hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in the Netherlands, in the period 2000–2030. Methods Population-level disease burden was quantified using the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) measure applied to all health outcomes following acute infection. We used national notification data, pre-defined disease progression models, and a simple model of demographic dynamics to investigate the impact of population ageing on the burden of seasonal influenza and HBV. Scenario analyses were conducted to explore the potential impact of intervention-associated changes in incidence rates. Results Including population dynamics resulted in increasing burden over the study period for influenza, whereas a relatively stable future burden was predicted for HBV. For influenza, the increase in DALYs was localised within YLL for the oldest age-groups (55 and older), and for HBV the effect of longer life expectancy in the future was offset by a reduction in incidence in the age-groups most at risk of infection. For both infections, the predicted disease burden was greater than if a static demography was assumed: 1.0 (in 2000) to 2.3-fold (in 2030) higher DALYs for influenza; 1.3 (in 2000) to 1.5-fold (in 2030) higher for HBV. Conclusions There are clear, but diverging effects of an ageing population on the estimated disease burden of influenza and HBV in the Netherlands. Replacing static assumptions with a dynamic demographic approach appears essential for deriving realistic burden estimates for informing health policy. PMID:23217094

Integrating Temperature-Dependent Life Table Data into a Matrix Projection Model for Drosophila suzukii Population Estimation

PubMed Central

Wiman, Nik G.; Walton, Vaughn M.; Dalton, Daniel T.; Anfora, Gianfranco; Burrack, Hannah J.; Chiu, Joanna C.; Daane, Kent M.; Grassi, Alberto; Miller, Betsey; Tochen, Samantha; Wang, Xingeng; Ioriatti, Claudio

2014-01-01

Temperature-dependent fecundity and survival data was integrated into a matrix population model to describe relative Drosophila suzukii Matsumura (Diptera: Drosophilidae) population increase and age structure based on environmental conditions. This novel modification of the classic Leslie matrix population model is presented as a way to examine how insect populations interact with the environment, and has application as a predictor of population density. For D. suzukii, we examined model implications for pest pressure on crops. As case studies, we examined model predictions in three small fruit production regions in the United States (US) and one in Italy. These production regions have distinctly different climates. In general, patterns of adult D. suzukii trap activity broadly mimicked seasonal population levels predicted by the model using only temperature data. Age structure of estimated populations suggest that trap and fruit infestation data are of limited value and are insufficient for model validation. Thus, we suggest alternative experiments for validation. The model is advantageous in that it provides stage-specific population estimation, which can potentially guide management strategies and provide unique opportunities to simulate stage-specific management effects such as insecticide applications or the effect of biological control on a specific life-stage. The two factors that drive initiation of the model are suitable temperatures (biofix) and availability of a suitable host medium (fruit). Although there are many factors affecting population dynamics of D. suzukii in the field, temperature-dependent survival and reproduction are believed to be the main drivers for D. suzukii populations. PMID:25192013

Galaxy evolution in clusters since z~1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aragon-Salamanca, Alfonso

2010-09-01

Galaxy clusters provide some of the most extreme environments in which galaxies evolve, making them excellent laboratories to study the age old question of "nature" vs. "nurture" in galaxy evolution. Here I review some of the key observational results obtained during the last decade on the evolution of the morphology, structure, dynamics, star-formation history and stellar populations of cluster galaxies since the time when the universe was half its present age. Many of the results presented here have been obtained within the ESO Distant Cluster Survey (EDisCS) and Space Telescope A901/02 Galaxy Evolution Survey (STAGES) collaborations.

Galaxy Evolution in Clusters Since z ~ 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aragón-Salamanca, A.

Galaxy clusters provide some of the most extreme environments in which galaxies evolve, making them excellent laboratories to study the age old question of "nature" vs. "nurture" in galaxy evolution. Here I review some of the key observational results obtained during the last decade on the evolution of the morphology, structure, dynamics, star-formation history and stellar populations of cluster galaxies since the time when the Universe was half its present age. Many of the results presented here have been obtained within the ESO Distant Cluster Survey (EDisCS) and Space Telescope A901/02 Galaxy Evolution Survey (STAGES) collaborations.

Density and spin modes in imbalanced normal Fermi gases from collisionless to hydrodynamic regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narushima, Masato; Watabe, Shohei; Nikuni, Tetsuro

2018-03-01

We study the mass- and population-imbalance effect on density (in-phase) and spin (out-of-phase) collective modes in a two-component normal Fermi gas. By calculating the eigenmodes of the linearized Boltzmann equation as well as the density/spin dynamic structure factor, we show that mass- and population-imbalance effects offer a variety of collective mode crossover behaviors from collisionless to hydrodynamic regimes. The mass-imbalance effect shifts the crossover regime to the higher-temperature, and a significant peak of the spin dynamic structure factor emerges only in the collisionless regime. This is in contrast to the case of mass- and population-balanced normal Fermi gases, where the spin dynamic response is always absent. Although the population-imbalance effect does not shift the crossover regime, the spin dynamic structure factor survives both in the collisionless and hydrodynamic regimes.

Effects of stand age on the demography of a temperate forest herb in post-agricultural forests.

PubMed

Jacquemyn, Hans; Brys, Rein

2008-12-01

Changes in land use have been shown to have profound effects on forest plant community structure and diversity. Dispersal limitation has been invoked as a major factor hampering colonization of forest plant species, while seed-sowing experiments and performance observations have provided some evidence for recruitment limitation determining forest plant distribution in post-agricultural forests. However, most of these studies were relatively short-term, and very few studies have investigated long-term growth rates of populations occurring in recent and ancient forests. In this study, matrix models using demographic data collected for four consecutive years were used to study the effect of forest age on population dynamics of the temperate forest herb Primula elatior. A life table response experiment (LTRE) and elasticity analysis were used to analyze the effect of forest age on population growth rate (lambda) and to decompose the effect of forest age on lambda into contributions from each matrix element. Population growth increased logarithmically with increasing forest age. Bootstrap analyses showed that populations located in very recent forests (< 50-years-old) had growth rates that were significantly < 1, whereas populations located in forests > 150-years-old had growth rates that were significantly > 1. Summed elasticities for individual growth significantly decreased with increasing forest age, whereas summed elasticities for survival and fertility significantly increased with increasing forest age. The LTRE analysis showed that the increase in lambda with increasing forest age was mainly due to increased seedling and juvenile growth and increased juvenile and adult survival. Our results indicate that past agricultural land use has long-lasting effects on the demography of forest herbs and may provide an additional mechanistic explanation for the poor colonization capacity of many forest herbs in post-agricultural forests.

Low Dynamics, High Longevity and Persistence of Sessile Structural Species Dwelling on Mediterranean Coralligenous Outcrops

PubMed Central

Teixidó, Núria; Garrabou, Joaquim; Harmelin, Jean-George

2011-01-01

There is still limited understanding of the processes underlying benthic species dynamics in marine coastal habitats, which are of disproportionate importance in terms of productivity and biodiversity. The life-history traits of long-lived benthic species in these habitats are particularly poorly documented. In this study, we assessed decadal patterns of population dynamics for ten sponge and anthozoan species that play key structural roles in coralligenous outcrops (∼25 m depth) in two areas of the NW Mediterranean Sea. This study was based on examination of a unique long-term photographic series, which allowed analysis of population dynamics over extensive spatial and time spans for the very first time. Specifically, 671 individuals were censused annually over periods of 25-, 15-, and 5-years. This long-term study quantitatively revealed a common life-history pattern among the ten studied species, despite the fact they present different growth forms. Low mortality rates (3.4% yr−1 for all species combined) and infrequent recruitment events (mean value of 3.1±0.5 SE recruits yr−1) provided only a very small fraction of the new colonies required to maintain population sizes. Overall, annual mortality and recruitment rates did not differ significantly among years; however, some species displayed important mortality events and recruitment pulses, indicating variability among species. Based on the growth rates of these 10 species, we projected their longevity and, obtained a mean estimated age of 25–200 years. Finally, the low to moderate turnover rates (mean value 0.80% yr−1) observed among the coralligenous species were in agreement with their low dynamics and persistence. These results offer solid baseline data and reveal that these habitats are among the most vulnerable to the current increases of anthropogenic disturbances. PMID:21887308

Consequences of cannibalism and competition for food in a smallmouth bass population: An individual-based modeling study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dong, Q.; DeAngelis, D.L.

1998-01-01

We used an individual-based modeling approach to study the consequences of cannibalism and competition for food in a freshwater fish population. We simulated the daily foraging, growth, and survival of the age-0 fish and older juvenile individuals of a sample population to reconstruct patterns of density dependence in the age-0 fish during the growth season. Cannibalism occurs as a part of the foraging process. For age-0 fish, older juvenile fish are both potential cannibals and competitors of food. We found that competition and cannibalism produced intraclass and interclass density dependence. Our modeling results suggested the following. (1) With low density of juvenile fish and weak interclass interactions, the age-0 fish recruitment shows a Beverton-Holt type of density dependence. (2) With high density of juvenile fish and strong interclass interactions, the age-0 fish recruitment shows a Ricker type of density dependence, and overcompensation occurs. (3) Interclass competition of food is responsible for much of the overcompensation. (4) Cannibalism intensifies the changes in the recruitment that are brought about by competition. Cannibalism can (a) generally reduce the recruitment, (b) particularly reduce the maximum level of recruitment, (c) cause overcompensation to occur at lower densities, and (d) produce a stronger overcompensation. (5) Growth is also a function of density. Cannibalism generally improves average growth of cannibals. (6) Variation in the lengths of age-0 fish increases with density and with a decreased average growth. These results imply that cannibalism and competition for food could strongly affect recruitment dynamics. Our model also showed that the rate of cannibalism either could be fairly even through the whole season or could vary dramatically. The individual-based modeling approach can help ecologists understand the mechanistic connection between daily behavioral and physiological processes operating at the level of individual organisms and seasonal patterns of population structure and dynamics. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 1998.

The impact of natural transformation on adaptation in spatially structured bacterial populations.

PubMed

Moradigaravand, Danesh; Engelstädter, Jan

2014-06-20

Recent studies have demonstrated that natural transformation and the formation of highly structured populations in bacteria are interconnected. In spite of growing evidence about this connection, little is known about the dynamics of natural transformation in spatially structured bacterial populations. In this work, we model the interdependency between the dynamics of the bacterial gene pool and those of environmental DNA in space to dissect the effect of transformation on adaptation. Our model reveals that even with only a single locus under consideration, transformation with a free DNA fragment pool results in complex adaptation dynamics that do not emerge in previous models focusing only on the gene shuffling effect of transformation at multiple loci. We demonstrate how spatial restriction on population growth and DNA diffusion in the environment affect the impact of transformation on adaptation. We found that in structured bacterial populations intermediate DNA diffusion rates predominantly cause transformation to impede adaptation by spreading deleterious alleles in the population. Overall, our model highlights distinctive evolutionary consequences of bacterial transformation in spatially restricted compared to planktonic bacterial populations.

Human judgment vs. quantitative models for the management of ecological resources.

PubMed

Holden, Matthew H; Ellner, Stephen P

2016-07-01

Despite major advances in quantitative approaches to natural resource management, there has been resistance to using these tools in the actual practice of managing ecological populations. Given a managed system and a set of assumptions, translated into a model, optimization methods can be used to solve for the most cost-effective management actions. However, when the underlying assumptions are not met, such methods can potentially lead to decisions that harm the environment and economy. Managers who develop decisions based on past experience and judgment, without the aid of mathematical models, can potentially learn about the system and develop flexible management strategies. However, these strategies are often based on subjective criteria and equally invalid and often unstated assumptions. Given the drawbacks of both methods, it is unclear whether simple quantitative models improve environmental decision making over expert opinion. In this study, we explore how well students, using their experience and judgment, manage simulated fishery populations in an online computer game and compare their management outcomes to the performance of model-based decisions. We consider harvest decisions generated using four different quantitative models: (1) the model used to produce the simulated population dynamics observed in the game, with the values of all parameters known (as a control), (2) the same model, but with unknown parameter values that must be estimated during the game from observed data, (3) models that are structurally different from those used to simulate the population dynamics, and (4) a model that ignores age structure. Humans on average performed much worse than the models in cases 1-3, but in a small minority of scenarios, models produced worse outcomes than those resulting from students making decisions based on experience and judgment. When the models ignored age structure, they generated poorly performing management decisions, but still outperformed students using experience and judgment 66% of the time. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Change in the structures, dynamics and disease-related mortality rates of the population of Qatari nationals: 2007-2011.

PubMed

Al-Thani, Mohamed H; Sadoun, Eman; Al-Thani, Al-Anoud; Khalifa, Shamseldin A; Sayegh, Suzan; Badawi, Alaa

2014-12-01

Developing effective public health policies and strategies for interventions necessitates an assessment of the structure, dynamics, disease rates and causes of death in a population. Lately, Qatar has undertaken development resurgence in health and economy that resulted in improving the standard of health services and health status of the entire Qatari population (i.e., Qatari nationals and non-Qatari residents). No study has attempted to evaluate the population structure/dynamics and recent changes in disease-related mortality rates among Qatari nationals. The present study examines the population structure/dynamics and the related changes in the cause-specific mortality rates and disease prevalence in the Qatari nationals. This is a retrospective, analytic descriptive analysis covering a period of 5years (2007-2011) and utilizes a range of data sources from the State of Qatar including the population structure, disease-related mortality rates, and the prevalence of a range of chronic and infectious diseases. Factors reflecting population dynamics such as crude death (CDR), crude birth (CBR), total fertility (TFR) and infant mortality (IMR) rates were also calculated. The Qatari nationals is an expansive population with an annual growth rate of ∼4% and a stable male:female ratio. The CDR declined by 15% within the study period, whereas the CBR was almost stable. The total disease-specific death rate, however, was decreased among the Qatari nationals by 23% due to the decline in mortality rates attributed to diseases of the blood and immune system (43%), nervous system (44%) and cardiovascular system (41%). There was a high prevalence of a range of chronic diseases, whereas very low frequencies of the infectious diseases within the study population. Public health strategies, approaches and programs developed to reduce disease burden and the related death, should be tailored to target the population of Qatari nationals which exhibits characteristics that vary from the entire Qatari population. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of seasonal harvesting on stage-structured population models.

PubMed

Tang, Sanyi; Chen, Lansun

2004-04-01

In most models of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-independent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. We propose an exploited single-species model with stage structure for the dynamics in a fish population for which births occur in a single pulse once per time period. Since birth pulse populations are often characterized with a discrete time dynamical system determined by its Poincaré map, we explore the consequences of harvest timing to equilibrium population sizes under seasonal dependence and obtain threshold conditions for their stability, and show that the timing of harvesting has a strong impact on the persistence of the fish population, on the volume of mature fish stock and on the maximum annual-sustainable yield. Moreover, our results imply that the population can sustain much higher harvest rates if the mature fish is removed as early in the season (after the birth pulse) as possible. Further, the effects of harvesting effort and harvest timing on the dynamical complexity are also investigated. Bifurcation diagrams are constructed with the birth rate (or harvesting effort or harvest timing) as the bifurcation parameter, and these are observed to display rich structure, including chaotic bands with periodic windows, pitch-fork and tangent bifurcations, non-unique dynamics (meaning that several attractors coexist) and attractor crisis. This suggests that birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that makes the dynamical behavior more complex.

Genetic consequences of polygyny and social structure in an Indian fruit bat, Cynopterus sphinx. II. Variance in male mating success and effective population size.

PubMed

Storz, J F; Bhat, H R; Kunz, T H

2001-06-01

Variance in reproductive success is a primary determinant of genetically effective population size (Ne), and thus has important implications for the role of genetic drift in the evolutionary dynamics of animal taxa characterized by polygynous mating systems. Here we report the results of a study designed to test the hypothesis that polygynous mating results in significantly reduced Ne in an age-structured population. This hypothesis was tested in a natural population of a harem-forming fruit bat, Cynopterus sphinx (Chiroptera: Pteropodidae), in western India. The influence of the mating system on the ratio of variance Ne to adult census number (N) was assessed using a mathematical model designed for age-structured populations that incorporated demographic and genetic data. Male mating success was assessed by means of direct and indirect paternity analysis using 10-locus microsatellite genotypes of adults and progeny from two consecutive breeding periods (n = 431 individually marked bats). Combined results from both analyses were used to infer the effective number of male parents in each breeding period. The relative proportion of successfully reproducing males and the size distribution of paternal sibships comprising each offspring cohort revealed an extremely high within-season variance in male mating success (up to 9.2 times higher than Poisson expectation). The resultant estimate of Ne/N for the C. sphinx study population was 0.42. As a result of polygynous mating, the predicted rate of drift (1/2Ne per generation) was 17.6% higher than expected from a Poisson distribution of male mating success. However, the estimated Ne/N was well within the 0.25-0.75 range expected for age-structured populations under normal demographic conditions. The life-history schedule of C. sphinx is characterized by a disproportionately short sexual maturation period scaled to adult life span. Consequently, the influence of polygynous mating on Ne/N is mitigated by the extensive overlap of generations. In C. sphinx, turnover of breeding males between seasons ensures a broader sampling of the adult male gamete pool than expected from the variance in mating success within a single breeding period.

Uncertainty in age-specific harvest estimates and consequences for white-tailed deer management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collier, B.A.; Krementz, D.G.

2007-01-01

Age structure proportions (proportion of harvested individuals within each age class) are commonly used as support for regulatory restrictions and input for deer population models. Such use requires critical evaluation when harvest regulations force hunters to selectively harvest specific age classes, due to impact on the underlying population age structure. We used a stochastic population simulation model to evaluate the impact of using harvest proportions to evaluate changes in population age structure under a selective harvest management program at two scales. Using harvest proportions to parameterize the age-specific harvest segment of the model for the local scale showed that predictions of post-harvest age structure did not vary dependent upon whether selective harvest criteria were in use or not. At the county scale, yearling frequency in the post-harvest population increased, but model predictions indicated that post-harvest population size of 2.5 years old males would decline below levels found before implementation of the antler restriction, reducing the number of individuals recruited into older age classes. Across the range of age-specific harvest rates modeled, our simulation predicted that underestimation of age-specific harvest rates has considerable influence on predictions of post-harvest population age structure. We found that the consequence of uncertainty in harvest rates corresponds to uncertainty in predictions of residual population structure, and this correspondence is proportional to scale. Our simulations also indicate that regardless of use of harvest proportions or harvest rates, at either the local or county scale the modeled SHC had a high probability (>0.60 and >0.75, respectively) of eliminating recruitment into >2.5 years old age classes. Although frequently used to increase population age structure, our modeling indicated that selective harvest criteria can decrease or eliminate the number of white-tailed deer recruited into older age classes. Thus, we suggest that using harvest proportions for management planning and evaluation should be viewed with caution. In addition, we recommend that managers focus more attention on estimation of age-specific harvest rates, and modeling approaches which combine harvest rates with information from harvested individuals to further increase their ability to effectively manage deer populations under selective harvest programs. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of local demography on asymptotic and transient dynamics of a yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Oli, Madan K; Armitage, Kenneth B; Blumstein, Daniel T; Van Vuren, Dirk H

2009-04-01

Despite recent advances in biodemography and metapopulation ecology, we still have limited understanding of how local demographic parameters influence short- and long-term metapopulation dynamics. We used long-term data from 17 local populations, along with the recently developed methods of matrix metapopulation modeling and transient sensitivity analysis, to investigate the influence of local demography on long-term (asymptotic) versus short-term (transient) dynamics of a yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation in Colorado. Both long- and short-term dynamics depended primarily on a few colony sites and were highly sensitive to changes in demography at these sites, particularly in survival of reproductive adult females. Interestingly, the relative importance of sites differed between long- and short-term dynamics; the spatial structure and local population sizes, while insignificant for asymptotic dynamics, were influential on transient dynamics. However, considering the spatial structure was uninformative about the relative influence of local demography on metapopulation dynamics. The vital rates that were the most influential on local dynamics were also the most influential on both long- and short-term metapopulation dynamics. Our results show that an explicit consideration of local demography is essential for a complete understanding of the dynamics and persistence of spatially structured populations.

STELLAR POPULATIONS IN COMPACT GALAXY GROUPS: A MULTI-WAVELENGTH STUDY OF HCGs 16, 22, AND 42, THEIR STAR CLUSTERS, AND DWARF GALAXIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Konstantopoulos, I. S.; Maybhate, A.; Charlton, J. C.

2013-06-20

We present a multi-wavelength analysis of three compact galaxy groups, Hickson compact groups (HCGs) 16, 22, and 42, which describe a sequence in terms of gas richness, from space- (Swift, Hubble Space Telescope (HST), and Spitzer) and ground-based (Las Campanas Observatory and Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory) imaging and spectroscopy. We study various signs of past interactions including a faint, dusty tidal feature about HCG 16A, which we tentatively age-date at <1 Gyr. This represents the possible detection of a tidal feature at the end of its phase of optical observability. Our HST images also resolve what were thought to bemore » double nuclei in HCG 16C and D into multiple, distinct sources, likely to be star clusters. Beyond our phenomenological treatment, we focus primarily on contrasting the stellar populations across these three groups. The star clusters show a remarkable intermediate-age population in HCG 22, and identify the time at which star formation was quenched in HCG 42. We also search for dwarf galaxies at accordant redshifts. The inclusion of 33 members and 27 ''associates'' (possible members) radically changes group dynamical masses, which in turn may affect previous evolutionary classifications. The extended membership paints a picture of relative isolation in HCGs 16 and 22, but shows HCG 42 to be part of a larger structure, following a dichotomy expected from recent studies. We conclude that (1) star cluster populations provide an excellent metric of evolutionary state, as they can age-date the past epochs of star formation; and (2) the extended dwarf galaxy population must be considered in assessing the dynamical state of a compact group.« less

Stellar Populations in Compact Galaxy Groups: a Multi-wavelength Study of HCGs 16, 22, and 42, Their Star Clusters, and Dwarf Galaxies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Konstantopoulos, I. S.; Maybhate, A.; Charlton, J. C.; Fedotov, K.; Durrell, P. R.; Mulchaey, J. S.; English, J.; Desjardins, T. D.; Gallagher, S. C.; Walker, L. M.;

Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

PubMed

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

PubMed Central

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

Native fishes in the Truckee River: Are in-stream structures and patterns of population genetic structure related?

PubMed

Peacock, Mary M; Gustin, Mae S; Kirchoff, Veronica S; Robinson, Morgan L; Hekkala, Evon; Pizzarro-Barraza, Claudia; Loux, Tim

2016-09-01

In-stream structures are recognized as significant impediments to movement for freshwater fishes. Apex predators such as salmonids have been the focus of much research on the impacts of such barriers to population dynamics and population viability however much less research has focused on native fishes, where in-stream structures may have a greater impact on long term population viability of these smaller, less mobile species. Patterns of genetic structure on a riverscape can provide information on which structures represent real barriers to movement for fish species and under what specific flow conditions. Here we characterize the impact of 41 dam and diversion structures on movement dynamics under varying flow conditions for a suite of six native fishes found in the Truckee River of California and Nevada. Microsatellite loci were used to estimate total allelic diversity, effective population size and assess genetic population structure. Although there is spatial overlap among species within the river there are clear differences in species distributions within the watershed. Observed population genetic structure was associated with in-stream structures, but only under low flow conditions. High total discharge in 2006 allowed fish to move over potential barriers resulting in no observed population genetic structure for any species in 2007. The efficacy of in-stream structures to impede movement and isolate fish emerged only after multiple years of low flow conditions. Our results suggest that restricted movement of fish species, as a result of in-stream barriers, can be mitigated by flow management. However, as flow dynamics are likely to be altered under global climate change, fragmentation due to barriers could isolate stream fishes into small subpopulations susceptible to both demographic losses and losses of genetic variation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tangled nature model of evolutionary dynamics reconsidered: Structural and dynamical effects of trait inheritance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, Christian Walther; Sibani, Paolo

2016-05-01

Based on the stochastic dynamics of interacting agents which reproduce, mutate, and die, the tangled nature model (TNM) describes key emergent features of biological and cultural ecosystems' evolution. While trait inheritance is not included in many applications, i.e., the interactions of an agent and those of its mutated offspring are taken to be uncorrelated, in the family of TNMs introduced in this work correlations of varying strength are parametrized by a positive integer K . We first show that the interactions generated by our rule are nearly independent of K . Consequently, the structural and dynamical effects of trait inheritance can be studied independently of effects related to the form of the interactions. We then show that changing K strengthens the core structure of the ecology, leads to population abundance distributions better approximated by log-normal probability densities, and increases the probability that a species extant at time tw also survives at t >tw . Finally, survival probabilities of species are shown to decay as powers of the ratio t /tw , a so-called pure aging behavior usually seen in glassy systems of physical origin. We find a quantitative dynamical effect of trait inheritance, namely, that increasing the value of K numerically decreases the decay exponent of the species survival probability.

Tangled nature model of evolutionary dynamics reconsidered: Structural and dynamical effects of trait inheritance.

PubMed

Andersen, Christian Walther; Sibani, Paolo

2016-05-01

Based on the stochastic dynamics of interacting agents which reproduce, mutate, and die, the tangled nature model (TNM) describes key emergent features of biological and cultural ecosystems' evolution. While trait inheritance is not included in many applications, i.e., the interactions of an agent and those of its mutated offspring are taken to be uncorrelated, in the family of TNMs introduced in this work correlations of varying strength are parametrized by a positive integer K. We first show that the interactions generated by our rule are nearly independent of K. Consequently, the structural and dynamical effects of trait inheritance can be studied independently of effects related to the form of the interactions. We then show that changing K strengthens the core structure of the ecology, leads to population abundance distributions better approximated by log-normal probability densities, and increases the probability that a species extant at time t_{w} also survives at t>t_{w}. Finally, survival probabilities of species are shown to decay as powers of the ratio t/t_{w}, a so-called pure aging behavior usually seen in glassy systems of physical origin. We find a quantitative dynamical effect of trait inheritance, namely, that increasing the value of K numerically decreases the decay exponent of the species survival probability.

A quantitative evaluation of a qualitative risk assessment framework: Examining the assumptions and predictions of the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA)

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Qualitative risk assessment frameworks, such as the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA), have been developed to rapidly evaluate the risks of fishing to marine populations and prioritize management and research among species. Despite being applied to over 1,000 fish populations, and an ongoing debate about the most appropriate method to convert biological and fishery characteristics into an overall measure of risk, the assumptions and predictive capacity of these approaches have not been evaluated. Several interpretations of the PSA were mapped to a conventional age-structured fisheries dynamics model to evaluate the performance of the approach under a range of assumptions regarding exploitation rates and measures of biological risk. The results demonstrate that the underlying assumptions of these qualitative risk-based approaches are inappropriate, and the expected performance is poor for a wide range of conditions. The information required to score a fishery using a PSA-type approach is comparable to that required to populate an operating model and evaluating the population dynamics within a simulation framework. In addition to providing a more credible characterization of complex system dynamics, the operating model approach is transparent, reproducible and can evaluate alternative management strategies over a range of plausible hypotheses for the system. PMID:29856869

Evolutionary dynamics on any population structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Benjamin; Lippner, Gabor; Chen, Yu-Ting; Fotouhi, Babak; Momeni, Naghmeh; Yau, Shing-Tung; Nowak, Martin A.

2017-03-01

Evolution occurs in populations of reproducing individuals. The structure of a population can affect which traits evolve. Understanding evolutionary game dynamics in structured populations remains difficult. Mathematical results are known for special structures in which all individuals have the same number of neighbours. The general case, in which the number of neighbours can vary, has remained open. For arbitrary selection intensity, the problem is in a computational complexity class that suggests there is no efficient algorithm. Whether a simple solution for weak selection exists has remained unanswered. Here we provide a solution for weak selection that applies to any graph or network. Our method relies on calculating the coalescence times of random walks. We evaluate large numbers of diverse population structures for their propensity to favour cooperation. We study how small changes in population structure—graph surgery—affect evolutionary outcomes. We find that cooperation flourishes most in societies that are based on strong pairwise ties.

Development of a stock-recruitment model and assessment of biological reference points for the Lake Erie walleye fishery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Yingming; Kocovsky, Patrick M.; Madenjian, Charles P.

2013-01-01

We developed an updated stock–recruitment relationship for Lake Erie Walleye Sander vitreus using the Akaike information criterion model selection approach. Our best stock–recruitment relationship was a Ricker spawner–recruit function to which spring warming rate was added as an environmental variable, and this regression model explained 39% of the variability in Walleye recruitment over the 1978 through 2006 year-classes. Thus, most of the variability in Lake Erie Walleye recruitment appeared to be attributable to factors other than spawning stock size and spring warming rate. The abundance of age-0 Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum, which was an important term in previous models, may still be an important factor for Walleye recruitment, but poorer ability to monitor Gizzard Shad since the late 1990s could have led to that term failing to appear in our best model. Secondly, we used numerical simulation to demonstrate how to use the stock recruitment relationship to characterize the population dynamics (such as stable age structure, carrying capacity, and maximum sustainable yield) and some biological reference points (such as fishing rates at different important biomass or harvest levels) for an age-structured population in a deterministic way.

An age-structured model for the coupled dynamics of HIV and HSV-2.

PubMed

Kapitanov, Georgi; Alvey, Christina; Vogt-Geisse, Katia; Feng, Zhilan

2015-08-01

Evidence suggests a strong correlation between the prevalence of HSV-2 (genital herpes) and the perseverance of the HIV epidemic. HSV-2 is an incurable viral infection, characterized by periodic reactivation. We construct a model of the co-infection dynamics between the two diseases by incorporating a time-since-infection variable to track the alternating periods of infectiousness of HSV-2. The model considers only heterosexual relationships and distinguishes three population groups: males, general population females, and female sex workers. We calculate the basic reproduction numbers for each disease that provide threshold conditions, which determine whether a disease dies out or becomes endemic in the absence of the other disease. We also derive the invasion reproduction numbers that determine whether or not a disease can invade into a population in which the other disease is endemic. The calculations of the invasion reproduction numbers suggest a new aspect in their interpretation - the class from which the initial disease carrier arises is important for understanding the invasion dynamics and biological interpretation of the expressions of the reproduction numbers. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the role of model parameters in influencing the model outcomes. The results are discussed in the last section.

Uncovering the transmission dynamics of Plasmodium vivax using population genetics

PubMed Central

Barry, Alyssa E.; Waltmann, Andreea; Koepfli, Cristian; Barnadas, Celine; Mueller, Ivo

2015-01-01

Population genetic analysis of malaria parasites has the power to reveal key insights into malaria epidemiology and transmission dynamics with the potential to deliver tools to support control and elimination efforts. Analyses of parasite genetic diversity have suggested that Plasmodium vivax populations are more genetically diverse and less structured than those of Plasmodium falciparum indicating that P. vivax may be a more ancient parasite of humans and/or less susceptible to population bottlenecks, as well as more efficient at disseminating its genes. These population genetic insights into P. vivax transmission dynamics provide an explanation for its relative resilience to control efforts. Here, we describe current knowledge on P. vivax population genetic structure, its relevance to understanding transmission patterns and relapse and how this information can inform malaria control and elimination programmes. PMID:25891915

An "age"-structured model of hematopoietic stem cell organization with application to chronic myeloid leukemia.

PubMed

Roeder, Ingo; Herberg, Maria; Horn, Matthias

2009-04-01

Previously, we have modeled hematopoietic stem cell organization by a stochastic, single cell-based approach. Applications to different experimental systems demonstrated that this model consistently explains a broad variety of in vivo and in vitro data. A major advantage of the agent-based model (ABM) is the representation of heterogeneity within the hematopoietic stem cell population. However, this advantage comes at the price of time-consuming simulations if the systems become large. One example in this respect is the modeling of disease and treatment dynamics in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), where the realistic number of individual cells to be considered exceeds 10(6). To overcome this deficiency, without losing the representation of the inherent heterogeneity of the stem cell population, we here propose to approximate the ABM by a system of partial differential equations (PDEs). The major benefit of such an approach is its independence from the size of the system. Although this mean field approach includes a number of simplifying assumptions compared to the ABM, it retains the key structure of the model including the "age"-structure of stem cells. We show that the PDE model qualitatively and quantitatively reproduces the results of the agent-based approach.

Latitudinal variation in population structure of wintering Pacific Black Brant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schamber, J.L.; Sedinger, J.S.; Ward, D.H.; Hagmeier, K.R.

2007-01-01

Latitudinal variation in population structure during the winter has been reported in many migratory birds, but has been documented in few species of waterfowl. Variation in environmental and social conditions at wintering sites can potentially influence the population dynamics of differential migrants. We examined latitudinal variation in sex and age classes of wintering Pacific Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans). Brant are distributed along a wide latitudinal gradient from Alaska to Mexico during the winter. Accordingly, migration distances for brant using different wintering locations are highly variable and winter settlement patterns are likely associated with a spatially variable food resource. We used resightings of brant banded in southwestern Alaska to examine sex and age ratios of birds wintering at Boundary Bay in British Columbia, and at San Quintin Bay, Ojo de Liebre Lagoon, and San Ignacio Lagoon in Baja California from 1998 to 2000. Sex ratios were similar among wintering locations for adults and were consistent with the mating strategy of geese. The distribution of juveniles varied among wintering areas, with greater proportions of juveniles observed at northern (San Quintin Bay and Ojo de Liebre Lagoon) than at southern (San Ignacio Lagoon) locations in Baja California. We suggest that age-related variation in the winter distribution of Pacific Black Brant is mediated by variation in productivity among individuals at different wintering locations and by social interactions among wintering family groups.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of pneumonia in bighorn sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cassirer, E. Frances; Plowright, Raina K.; Manlove, Kezia R.; Cross, Paul C.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Potter, Kathleen A.; Hudson, Peter J.

2013-01-01

Bighorn sheep mortality related to pneumonia is a primary factor limiting population recovery across western North America, but management has been constrained by an incomplete understanding of the disease. We analysed patterns of pneumonia-caused mortality over 14 years in 16 interconnected bighorn sheep populations to gain insights into underlying disease processes. 2. We observed four age-structured classes of annual pneumonia mortality patterns: all-age, lamb-only, secondary all-age and adult-only. Although there was considerable variability within classes, overall they differed in persistence within and impact on populations. Years with pneumonia-induced mortality occurring simultaneously across age classes (i.e. all-age) appeared to be a consequence of pathogen invasion into a naïve population and resulted in immediate population declines. Subsequently, low recruitment due to frequent high mortality outbreaks in lambs, probably due to association with chronically infected ewes, posed a significant obstacle to population recovery. Secondary all-age events occurred in previously exposed populations when outbreaks in lambs were followed by lower rates of pneumonia-induced mortality in adults. Infrequent pneumonia events restricted to adults were usually of short duration with low mortality. 3. Acute pneumonia-induced mortality in adults was concentrated in fall and early winter around the breeding season when rams are more mobile and the sexes commingle. In contrast, mortality restricted to lambs peaked in summer when ewes and lambs were concentrated in nursery groups. 4. We detected weak synchrony in adult pneumonia between adjacent populations, but found no evidence for landscape-scale extrinsic variables as drivers of disease. 5. We demonstrate that there was a >60% probability of a disease event each year following pneumonia invasion into bighorn sheep populations. Healthy years also occurred periodically, and understanding the factors driving these apparent fade-out events may be the key to managing this disease. Our data and modelling indicate that pneumonia can have greater impacts on bighorn sheep populations than previously reported, and we present hypotheses about processes involved for testing in future investigations and management.

Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

Treesearch

M.E. and D.C. Lee Borsuk

2009-01-01

The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

A juvenile-adult population model: climate change, cannibalism, reproductive synchrony, and strong Allee effects.

PubMed

Veprauskas, Amy; Cushing, J M

2017-03-01

We study a discrete time, structured population dynamic model that is motivated by recent field observations concerning certain life history strategies of colonial-nesting gulls, specifically the glaucous-winged gull (Larus glaucescens). The model focuses on mechanisms hypothesized to play key roles in a population's response to degraded environment resources, namely, increased cannibalism and adjustments in reproductive timing. We explore the dynamic consequences of these mechanics using a juvenile-adult structure model. Mathematically, the model is unusual in that it involves a high co-dimension bifurcation at [Formula: see text] which, in turn, leads to a dynamic dichotomy between equilibrium states and synchronized oscillatory states. We give diagnostic criteria that determine which dynamic is stable. We also explore strong Allee effects caused by positive feedback mechanisms in the model and the possible consequence that a cannibalistic population can survive when a non-cannibalistic population cannot.

Regional Population Dynamics

Treesearch

Andrew Birt

2011-01-01

The population dynamics of the southern pine beetle (SPB) exhibit characteristic fluctuations between relatively long endemic and shorter outbreak periods. Populations exhibit complex and hierarchical spatial structure with beetles and larvae aggregating within individual trees, infestations with multiple infested trees, and regional outbreaks that comprise a large...

Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinker, M. Timothy; Doak, Daniel F.; Estes, James A.; Hatfield, Brian B.; Staedler, Michelle M.; Gross, Arthur

2006-01-01

Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Population dynamics of rural Ethiopia.

PubMed

Bariabagar, H

1978-01-01

2 rounds of the national sample surveys, conducted by the central statistical office of Ethiopia during 1964-1967 and 1969-1971, provide the only comprehensive demographic data for the country and are the basis for this discussion of rural Ethiopia's population dynamics. The population of Ethiopia is predominantly rural. Agglomerations of 2000 and over inhabitants constitute about 14% of the population, and this indicates that Ethiopia has a low level of urbanization. In rural Ethiopia, international migration was negligent in the 1970's and the age structure can be assumed to be the results of past trends of fertility and mortality conditions. The reported crude birthrate (38.2), crude death rate (12.3) and infant mortality rate (90) of rural Ethiopia fall short of the averages for African countries. Prospects of population growth of rural Ethiopia would be immense. At the rate of natural increase of between 2.4 and 3.0% per annum, the population would double in 24-29 years. Regarding population issues, the programs of the National Democratic Revolution of Ethiopia faces the following main challenging problems: 1) carrying out national population censuses in order to obtain basic information for socialist planning; 2) minimizing or curtailing the existing high urban growth rates; 3) reducing rapidly growing population; and 5) mobilizing Ethiopian women to participate in the social, economic and political life of the country in order to create favorable conditions for future fertility reduction.

An age-structured extension to the vectorial capacity model.

PubMed

Novoseltsev, Vasiliy N; Michalski, Anatoli I; Novoseltseva, Janna A; Yashin, Anatoliy I; Carey, James R; Ellis, Alicia M

2012-01-01

Vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number (R(0)) have been instrumental in structuring thinking about vector-borne pathogen transmission and how best to prevent the diseases they cause. One of the more important simplifying assumptions of these models is age-independent vector mortality. A growing body of evidence indicates that insect vectors exhibit age-dependent mortality, which can have strong and varied affects on pathogen transmission dynamics and strategies for disease prevention. Based on survival analysis we derived new equations for vectorial capacity and R(0) that are valid for any pattern of age-dependent (or age-independent) vector mortality and explore the behavior of the models across various mortality patterns. The framework we present (1) lays the groundwork for an extension and refinement of the vectorial capacity paradigm by introducing an age-structured extension to the model, (2) encourages further research on the actuarial dynamics of vectors in particular and the relationship of vector mortality to pathogen transmission in general, and (3) provides a detailed quantitative basis for understanding the relative impact of reductions in vector longevity compared to other vector-borne disease prevention strategies. Accounting for age-dependent vector mortality in estimates of vectorial capacity and R(0) was most important when (1) vector densities are relatively low and the pattern of mortality can determine whether pathogen transmission will persist; i.e., determines whether R(0) is above or below 1, (2) vector population growth rate is relatively low and there are complex interactions between birth and death that differ fundamentally from birth-death relationships with age-independent mortality, and (3) the vector exhibits complex patterns of age-dependent mortality and R(0) ∼ 1. A limiting factor in the construction and evaluation of new age-dependent mortality models is the paucity of data characterizing vector mortality patterns, particularly for free ranging vectors in the field.

Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly.

PubMed

Hanski, Ilkka A

2011-08-30

Demographic population dynamics, gene flow, and local adaptation may influence each other and lead to coupling of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, especially in species inhabiting fragmented heterogeneous environments. Here, I review long-term research on eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly inhabiting a large network of approximately 4,000 meadows in Finland. The metapopulation persists in a balance between frequent local extinctions and recolonizations. The genetic spatial structure as defined by neutral markers is much more coarse-grained than the demographic spatial structure determined by the fragmented habitat, yet small-scale spatial structure has important consequences for the dynamics. I discuss three examples of eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics. (i) Extinction-colonization metapopulation dynamics influence allele frequency changes in the phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) gene, which leads to strong associations between genetic variation in Pgi and dispersal, recolonization, and local population dynamics. (ii) Inbreeding in local populations increases their risk for extinction, whereas reciprocal effects between inbreeding, population size, and emigration represent likely eco-evolutionary feedbacks. (iii) Genetically determined female oviposition preference for two host plant species exhibits a cline paralleling a gradient in host plant relative abundances, and host plant preference of dispersing females in relation to the host plant composition of habitat patches influences immigration (gene flow) and recolonization (founder events). Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in heterogeneous environments may not lead to directional evolutionary changes unless the environment itself changes, but eco-evolutionary dynamics may contribute to the maintenance of genetic variation attributable to fluctuating selection in space and time.

Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

Constructing stage-structured matrix population models from life tables: comparison of methods

PubMed Central

Diaz-Lopez, Jasmin

2017-01-01

A matrix population model is a convenient tool for summarizing per capita survival and reproduction rates (collectively vital rates) of a population and can be used for calculating an asymptotic finite population growth rate (λ) and generation time. These two pieces of information can be used for determining the status of a threatened species. The use of stage-structured population models has increased in recent years, and the vital rates in such models are often estimated using a life table analysis. However, potential bias introduced when converting age-structured vital rates estimated from a life table into parameters for a stage-structured population model has not been assessed comprehensively. The objective of this study was to investigate the performance of methods for such conversions using simulated life histories of organisms. The underlying models incorporate various types of life history and true population growth rates of varying levels. The performance was measured by comparing differences in λ and the generation time calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, age-structured population matrices, and several stage-structured population matrices that were obtained by applying different conversion methods. The results show that the discretization of age introduces only small bias in λ or generation time. Similarly, assuming a fixed age of maturation at the mean age of maturation does not introduce much bias. However, aggregating age-specific survival rates into a stage-specific survival rate and estimating a stage-transition rate can introduce substantial bias depending on the organism’s life history type and the true values of λ. In order to aggregate survival rates, the use of the weighted arithmetic mean was the most robust method for estimating λ. Here, the weights are given by survivorship curve after discounting with λ. To estimate a stage-transition rate, matching the proportion of individuals transitioning, with λ used for discounting the rate, was the best approach. However, stage-structured models performed poorly in estimating generation time, regardless of the methods used for constructing the models. Based on the results, we recommend using an age-structured matrix population model or the Euler-Lotka equation for calculating λ and generation time when life table data are available. Then, these age-structured vital rates can be converted into a stage-structured model for further analyses. PMID:29085763

Constructing stage-structured matrix population models from life tables: comparison of methods.

PubMed

Fujiwara, Masami; Diaz-Lopez, Jasmin

2017-01-01

A matrix population model is a convenient tool for summarizing per capita survival and reproduction rates (collectively vital rates) of a population and can be used for calculating an asymptotic finite population growth rate ( λ ) and generation time. These two pieces of information can be used for determining the status of a threatened species. The use of stage-structured population models has increased in recent years, and the vital rates in such models are often estimated using a life table analysis. However, potential bias introduced when converting age-structured vital rates estimated from a life table into parameters for a stage-structured population model has not been assessed comprehensively. The objective of this study was to investigate the performance of methods for such conversions using simulated life histories of organisms. The underlying models incorporate various types of life history and true population growth rates of varying levels. The performance was measured by comparing differences in λ and the generation time calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, age-structured population matrices, and several stage-structured population matrices that were obtained by applying different conversion methods. The results show that the discretization of age introduces only small bias in λ or generation time. Similarly, assuming a fixed age of maturation at the mean age of maturation does not introduce much bias. However, aggregating age-specific survival rates into a stage-specific survival rate and estimating a stage-transition rate can introduce substantial bias depending on the organism's life history type and the true values of λ . In order to aggregate survival rates, the use of the weighted arithmetic mean was the most robust method for estimating λ . Here, the weights are given by survivorship curve after discounting with λ . To estimate a stage-transition rate, matching the proportion of individuals transitioning, with λ used for discounting the rate, was the best approach. However, stage-structured models performed poorly in estimating generation time, regardless of the methods used for constructing the models. Based on the results, we recommend using an age-structured matrix population model or the Euler-Lotka equation for calculating λ and generation time when life table data are available. Then, these age-structured vital rates can be converted into a stage-structured model for further analyses.

Rebuilding after collapse: evidence for long-term cohort dynamics in the native Hawaiian rain forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boehmer, Hans Juergen; Wagner, Helene H.; Jacobi, James D.; Gerrish, Grant C.; Mueller-Dombois, Dieter

2013-01-01

Questions: Do long-term observations in permanent plots confirm the conceptual model of Metrosideros polymorpha cohort dynamics as postulated in 1987? Do regeneration patterns occur independently of substrate age, i.e. of direct volcanic disturbance impact? Location: The windward mountain slopes of the younger Mauna Loa and the older Mauna Kea volcanoes (island of Hawaii, USA). Methods: After widespread forest decline (dieback), permanent plots were established in 1976 in 13 dieback and 13 non-dieback patches to monitor the population structure of M. polymorpha at ca. 5-yr intervals. Within each plot of 20 × 20 m, all trees with DBH >2.5 cm were individually tagged, measured and tree vigour assessed; regeneration was quantified in 16 systematically placed subplots of 3 × 5 m. Data collected in the subplots included the total number of M. polymorpha seedlings and saplings (five stem height classes). Here we analyse monitoring data from six time steps from 1976 to 2003 using repeated measures ANOVA to test specific predictions derived from the 1987 conceptual model. Results: Regeneration was significantly different between dieback and non-dieback plots. In dieback plots, the collapse in the 1970s was followed by a ‘sapling wave’ that by 2003 led to new cohort stands of M. polymorpha. In non-dieback stands, seedling emergence did not result in sapling waves over the same period. Instead, a ‘sapling gap’ (i.e. very few or no M. polymorpha saplings) prevailed as typical for mature stands. Canopy dieback in 1976, degree of recovery by 2003 and the number of living trees in 2003 were unrelated to substrate age. Conclusions: Population development of M. polymorpha supports the cohort dynamics model, which predicts rebuilding of the forest with the same canopy species after dieback. The lack of association with substrate age suggests that the long-term maintenance of cohort structure in M. polymorpha does not depend on volcanic disturbance but may be related to other environmental mechanisms, such as climate anomalies.

How Ebola impacts social dynamics in gorillas: a multistate modelling approach.

PubMed

Genton, Céline; Pierre, Amandine; Cristescu, Romane; Lévréro, Florence; Gatti, Sylvain; Pierre, Jean-Sébastien; Ménard, Nelly; Le Gouar, Pascaline

2015-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases can induce rapid changes in population dynamics and threaten population persistence. In socially structured populations, the transfers of individuals between social units, for example, from breeding groups to non-breeding groups, shape population dynamics. We suggest that diseases may affect these crucial transfers. We aimed to determine how disturbance by an emerging disease affects demographic rates of gorillas, especially transfer rates within populations and immigration rates into populations. We compared social dynamics and key demographic parameters in a gorilla population affected by Ebola using a long-term observation data set including pre-, during and post-outbreak periods. We also studied a population of undetermined epidemiological status in order to assess whether this population was affected by the disease. We developed a multistate model that can handle transition between social units while optimizing the number of states. During the Ebola outbreak, social dynamics displayed increased transfers from a breeding to a non-breeding status for both males and females. Six years after the outbreak, demographic and most of social dynamics parameters had returned to their initial rates, suggesting a certain resilience in the response to disruption. The formation of breeding groups increased just after Ebola, indicating that environmental conditions were still attractive. However, population recovery was likely delayed because compensatory immigration was probably impeded by the potential impact of Ebola in the surrounding areas. The population of undetermined epidemiological status behaved similarly to the other population before Ebola. Our results highlight the need to integrate social dynamics in host-population demographic models to better understand the role of social structure in the sensitivity and the response to disease disturbances. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Spatial and temporal synchrony in reptile population dynamics in variable environments.

PubMed

Greenville, Aaron C; Wardle, Glenda M; Nguyen, Vuong; Dickman, Chris R

2016-10-01

Resources are seldom distributed equally across space, but many species exhibit spatially synchronous population dynamics. Such synchrony suggests the operation of large-scale external drivers, such as rainfall or wildfire, or the influence of oasis sites that provide water, shelter, or other resources. However, testing the generality of these factors is not easy, especially in variable environments. Using a long-term dataset (13-22 years) from a large (8000 km(2)) study region in arid Central Australia, we tested firstly for regional synchrony in annual rainfall and the dynamics of six reptile species across nine widely separated sites. For species that showed synchronous spatial dynamics, we then used multivariate follow a multivariate auto-regressive state-space (MARSS) models to predict that regional rainfall would be positively associated with their populations. For asynchronous species, we used MARSS models to explore four other possible population structures: (1) populations were asynchronous, (2) differed between oasis and non-oasis sites, (3) differed between burnt and unburnt sites, or (4) differed between three sub-regions with different rainfall gradients. Only one species showed evidence of spatial population synchrony and our results provide little evidence that rainfall synchronizes reptile populations. The oasis or the wildfire hypotheses were the best-fitting models for the other five species. Thus, our six study species appear generally to be structured in space into one or two populations across the study region. Our findings suggest that for arid-dwelling reptile populations, spatial and temporal dynamics are structured by abiotic events, but individual responses to covariates at smaller spatial scales are complex and poorly understood.

Individual Differences in Dynamic Functional Brain Connectivity across the Human Lifespan.

PubMed

Davison, Elizabeth N; Turner, Benjamin O; Schlesinger, Kimberly J; Miller, Michael B; Grafton, Scott T; Bassett, Danielle S; Carlson, Jean M

2016-11-01

Individual differences in brain functional networks may be related to complex personal identifiers, including health, age, and ability. Dynamic network theory has been used to identify properties of dynamic brain function from fMRI data, but the majority of analyses and findings remain at the level of the group. Here, we apply hypergraph analysis, a method from dynamic network theory, to quantify individual differences in brain functional dynamics. Using a summary metric derived from the hypergraph formalism-hypergraph cardinality-we investigate individual variations in two separate, complementary data sets. The first data set ("multi-task") consists of 77 individuals engaging in four consecutive cognitive tasks. We observe that hypergraph cardinality exhibits variation across individuals while remaining consistent within individuals between tasks; moreover, the analysis of one of the memory tasks revealed a marginally significant correspondence between hypergraph cardinality and age. This finding motivated a similar analysis of the second data set ("age-memory"), in which 95 individuals, aged 18-75, performed a memory task with a similar structure to the multi-task memory task. With the increased age range in the age-memory data set, the correlation between hypergraph cardinality and age correspondence becomes significant. We discuss these results in the context of the well-known finding linking age with network structure, and suggest that hypergraph analysis should serve as a useful tool in furthering our understanding of the dynamic network structure of the brain.

Minimizing the dependency ratio in a population with below-replacement fertility through immigration

PubMed Central

Simon, C.; Belyakov, A.O.; Feichtinger, G.

2012-01-01

Many industrialized countries face fertility rates below replacement level, combined with declining mortality especially in older ages. Consequently, the populations of these countries have started to age. One important indicator of age structures is the dependency ratio which is the ratio of the nonworking age population to the working age population. In this work we find the age-specific immigration profile that minimizes the dependency ratio in a stationary population with below-replacement fertility. It is assumed that the number of immigrants per age is limited. We consider two alternative policies. In the first one, we fix the total number of people who annually immigrate to a country. In the second one, we prescribe the size of the receiving country’s population. For both cases we provide numerical results for the optimal immigration profile, for the resulting age structure of the population, as well as for the dependency ratio. PMID:22781918

Individual-Based Modeling of Tuberculosis in a User-Friendly Interface: Understanding the Epidemiological Role of Population Heterogeneity in a City

PubMed Central

Prats, Clara; Montañola-Sales, Cristina; Gilabert-Navarro, Joan F.; Valls, Joaquim; Casanovas-Garcia, Josep; Vilaplana, Cristina; Cardona, Pere-Joan; López, Daniel

2016-01-01

For millennia tuberculosis (TB) has shown a successful strategy to survive, making it one of the world’s deadliest infectious diseases. This resilient behavior is based not only on remaining hidden in most of the infected population, but also by showing slow evolution in most sick people. The course of the disease within a population is highly related to its heterogeneity. Thus, classic epidemiological approaches with a top-down perspective have not succeeded in understanding its dynamics. In the past decade a few individual-based models were built, but most of them preserved a top-down view that makes it difficult to study a heterogeneous population. We propose an individual-based model developed with a bottom-up approach to studying the dynamics of pulmonary TB in a certain population, considered constant. Individuals may belong to the following classes: healthy, infected, sick, under treatment, and treated with a probability of relapse. Several variables and parameters account for their age, origin (native or immigrant), immunodeficiency, diabetes, and other risk factors (smoking and alcoholism). The time within each infection state is controlled, and sick individuals may show a cavitated disease or not that conditions infectiousness. It was implemented in NetLogo because it allows non-modelers to perform virtual experiments with a user-friendly interface. The simulation was conducted with data from Ciutat Vella, a district of Barcelona with an incidence of 67 TB cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2013. Several virtual experiments were performed to relate the disease dynamics with the structure of the infected subpopulation (e.g., the distribution of infected times). Moreover, the short-term effect of health control policies on modifying that structure was studied. Results show that the characteristics of the population are crucial for the local epidemiology of TB. The developed user-friendly tool is ready to test control strategies of disease in any city in the short-term. PMID:26793189

Individual-Based Modeling of Tuberculosis in a User-Friendly Interface: Understanding the Epidemiological Role of Population Heterogeneity in a City.

PubMed

Prats, Clara; Montañola-Sales, Cristina; Gilabert-Navarro, Joan F; Valls, Joaquim; Casanovas-Garcia, Josep; Vilaplana, Cristina; Cardona, Pere-Joan; López, Daniel

2015-01-01

For millennia tuberculosis (TB) has shown a successful strategy to survive, making it one of the world's deadliest infectious diseases. This resilient behavior is based not only on remaining hidden in most of the infected population, but also by showing slow evolution in most sick people. The course of the disease within a population is highly related to its heterogeneity. Thus, classic epidemiological approaches with a top-down perspective have not succeeded in understanding its dynamics. In the past decade a few individual-based models were built, but most of them preserved a top-down view that makes it difficult to study a heterogeneous population. We propose an individual-based model developed with a bottom-up approach to studying the dynamics of pulmonary TB in a certain population, considered constant. Individuals may belong to the following classes: healthy, infected, sick, under treatment, and treated with a probability of relapse. Several variables and parameters account for their age, origin (native or immigrant), immunodeficiency, diabetes, and other risk factors (smoking and alcoholism). The time within each infection state is controlled, and sick individuals may show a cavitated disease or not that conditions infectiousness. It was implemented in NetLogo because it allows non-modelers to perform virtual experiments with a user-friendly interface. The simulation was conducted with data from Ciutat Vella, a district of Barcelona with an incidence of 67 TB cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2013. Several virtual experiments were performed to relate the disease dynamics with the structure of the infected subpopulation (e.g., the distribution of infected times). Moreover, the short-term effect of health control policies on modifying that structure was studied. Results show that the characteristics of the population are crucial for the local epidemiology of TB. The developed user-friendly tool is ready to test control strategies of disease in any city in the short-term.

Strategy selection in structured populations.

PubMed

Tarnita, Corina E; Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Antal, Tibor; Fu, Feng; Nowak, Martin A

2009-08-07

Evolutionary game theory studies frequency dependent selection. The fitness of a strategy is not constant, but depends on the relative frequencies of strategies in the population. This type of evolutionary dynamics occurs in many settings of ecology, infectious disease dynamics, animal behavior and social interactions of humans. Traditionally evolutionary game dynamics are studied in well-mixed populations, where the interaction between any two individuals is equally likely. There have also been several approaches to study evolutionary games in structured populations. In this paper we present a simple result that holds for a large variety of population structures. We consider the game between two strategies, A and B, described by the payoff matrix(abcd). We study a mutation and selection process. For weak selection strategy A is favored over B if and only if sigma a+b>c+sigma d. This means the effect of population structure on strategy selection can be described by a single parameter, sigma. We present the values of sigma for various examples including the well-mixed population, games on graphs, games in phenotype space and games on sets. We give a proof for the existence of such a sigma, which holds for all population structures and update rules that have certain (natural) properties. We assume weak selection, but allow any mutation rate. We discuss the relationship between sigma and the critical benefit to cost ratio for the evolution of cooperation. The single parameter, sigma, allows us to quantify the ability of a population structure to promote the evolution of cooperation or to choose efficient equilibria in coordination games.

Persistence versus extinction for a class of discrete-time structured population models.

PubMed

Jin, Wen; Smith, Hal L; Thieme, Horst R

2016-03-01

We provide sharp conditions distinguishing persistence and extinction for a class of discrete-time dynamical systems on the positive cone of an ordered Banach space generated by a map which is the sum of a positive linear contraction A and a nonlinear perturbation G that is compact and differentiable at zero in the direction of the cone. Such maps arise as year-to-year projections of population age, stage, or size-structure distributions in population biology where typically A has to do with survival and individual development and G captures the effects of reproduction. The threshold distinguishing persistence and extinction is the principal eigenvalue of (II−A)(−1)G'(0) provided by the Krein-Rutman Theorem, and persistence is described in terms of associated eigenfunctionals. Our results significantly extend earlier persistence results of the last two authors which required more restrictive conditions on G. They are illustrated by application of the results to a plant model with a seed bank.

Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1) 2009.

PubMed

Nishiura, Hiroshi; Chowell, Gerardo; Safan, Muntaser; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

2010-01-07

In many parts of the world, the exponential growth rate of infections during the initial epidemic phase has been used to make statistical inferences on the reproduction number, R, a summary measure of the transmission potential for the novel influenza A (H1N1) 2009. The growth rate at the initial stage of the epidemic in Japan led to estimates for R in the range 2.0 to 2.6, capturing the intensity of the initial outbreak among school-age children in May 2009. An updated estimate of R that takes into account the epidemic data from 29 May to 14 July is provided. An age-structured renewal process is employed to capture the age-dependent transmission dynamics, jointly estimating the reproduction number, the age-dependent susceptibility and the relative contribution of imported cases to secondary transmission. Pitfalls in estimating epidemic growth rates are identified and used for scrutinizing and re-assessing the results of our earlier estimate of R. Maximum likelihood estimates of R using the data from 29 May to 14 July ranged from 1.21 to 1.35. The next-generation matrix, based on our age-structured model, predicts that only 17.5% of the population will experience infection by the end of the first pandemic wave. Our earlier estimate of R did not fully capture the population-wide epidemic in quantifying the next-generation matrix from the estimated growth rate during the initial stage of the pandemic in Japan. In order to quantify R from the growth rate of cases, it is essential that the selected model captures the underlying transmission dynamics embedded in the data. Exploring additional epidemiological information will be useful for assessing the temporal dynamics. Although the simple concept of R is more easily grasped by the general public than that of the next-generation matrix, the matrix incorporating detailed information (e.g., age-specificity) is essential for reducing the levels of uncertainty in predictions and for assisting public health policymaking. Model-based prediction and policymaking are best described by sharing fundamental notions of heterogeneous risks of infection and death with non-experts to avoid potential confusion and/or possible misuse of modelling results.

The INfrared Survey of Young Nebulous Clusters (IN-SYNC): Surveying the Dynamics and Star Formation Histories of Young Clusters with APOGEE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Covey, Kevin R.; Cottaar, Michiel; Foster, Jonathan B.; Da Rio, Nicola; Tan, Jonathan; Meyer, Michael; Nidever, David L.; Flaherty, Kevin M.; Arce, Hector G.; Rebull, Luisa M.; Chojnowski, S. Drew; Frinchaboy, Peter M.; Hearty, Fred R.; Majewski, Steven R.; Skrutskie, Michael F.; Stassun, Keivan; Wilson, John C.; Zasowski, Gail

2015-01-01

Young clusters are the most prolific sites of star formation in the Milky Way, but demographic studies indicate that relatively few of the Milky Way's stellar clusters persist as bound structures for 100 Myrs or longer. Uniform & precise measurements of the stellar populations and internal dynamics of these regions are difficult to obtain, however, particularly for extremely young clusters whose optical visibility is greatly hampered by their parental molecular cloud. The INfrared Survey of Young Nebulous Clusters (IN-SYNC), an SDSS-III ancillary science program, leverages the stability and multiplex capability of the APOGEE spectrograph to obtain high resolution spectra at near-infrared wavelengths, where photospheric emission is better able to penetrate the dusty shrouds that surround sites of active star formation. We summarize our recent measurements of the kinematics and stellar populations of IC 348 and NGC 1333, two young clusters in the Perseus Molecular Cloud, and of the members of the Orion Nebula Cluster (ONC) and L1641 filament in the Orion molecular complex. These measurements highlight the dynamically 'warm' environment within these young clusters, and suggest a range of stellar radii within these quasi-single-age populations. We close with a preview of plans for continuing this work as part of the APOGEE-2 science portfolio: self-consistent measurements of the kinematics and star formation histories for clusters spanning a range of initial conditions and ages will provide a opportunity to disentangle the mechanisms that drive the formation and dissolution of sites of active star formation.

An Age-Structured Extension to the Vectorial Capacity Model

PubMed Central

Novoseltsev, Vasiliy N.; Michalski, Anatoli I.; Novoseltseva, Janna A.; Yashin, Anatoliy I.; Carey, James R.; Ellis, Alicia M.

2012-01-01

Background Vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number (R0) have been instrumental in structuring thinking about vector-borne pathogen transmission and how best to prevent the diseases they cause. One of the more important simplifying assumptions of these models is age-independent vector mortality. A growing body of evidence indicates that insect vectors exhibit age-dependent mortality, which can have strong and varied affects on pathogen transmission dynamics and strategies for disease prevention. Methodology/Principal Findings Based on survival analysis we derived new equations for vectorial capacity and R0 that are valid for any pattern of age-dependent (or age–independent) vector mortality and explore the behavior of the models across various mortality patterns. The framework we present (1) lays the groundwork for an extension and refinement of the vectorial capacity paradigm by introducing an age-structured extension to the model, (2) encourages further research on the actuarial dynamics of vectors in particular and the relationship of vector mortality to pathogen transmission in general, and (3) provides a detailed quantitative basis for understanding the relative impact of reductions in vector longevity compared to other vector-borne disease prevention strategies. Conclusions/Significance Accounting for age-dependent vector mortality in estimates of vectorial capacity and R0 was most important when (1) vector densities are relatively low and the pattern of mortality can determine whether pathogen transmission will persist; i.e., determines whether R0 is above or below 1, (2) vector population growth rate is relatively low and there are complex interactions between birth and death that differ fundamentally from birth-death relationships with age-independent mortality, and (3) the vector exhibits complex patterns of age-dependent mortality and R0∼1. A limiting factor in the construction and evaluation of new age-dependent mortality models is the paucity of data characterizing vector mortality patterns, particularly for free ranging vectors in the field. PMID:22724022

Population and Environment

PubMed Central

de Sherbinin, Alex; Carr, David; Cassels, Susan; Jiang, Leiwen

2009-01-01

The interactions between human population dynamics and the environment have often been viewed mechanistically. This review elucidates the complexities and contextual specificities of population-environment relationships in a number of domains. It explores the ways in which demographers and other social scientists have sought to understand the relationships among a full range of population dynamics (e.g., population size, growth, density, age and sex composition, migration, urbanization, vital rates) and environmental changes. The chapter briefly reviews a number of the theories for understanding population and the environment and then proceeds to provide a state-of-the-art review of studies that have examined population dynamics and their relationship to five environmental issue areas. The review concludes by relating population-environment research to emerging work on human-environment systems. PMID:20011237

A dynamic model of the marriage market-part 1: matching algorithm based on age preference and availability.

PubMed

Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L

2013-09-01

The matching algorithm in a dynamic marriage market model is described in this first of two companion papers. Iterative Proportional Fitting is used to find a marriage function (an age distribution of new marriages for both sexes), in a stable reference population, that is consistent with the one-sex age distributions of new marriages, and includes age preference. The one-sex age distributions (which are the marginals of the two-sex distribution) are based on the Picrate model, and age preference on a normal distribution, both of which may be adjusted by choice of parameter values. For a population that is perturbed from the reference state, the total number of new marriages is found as the harmonic mean of target totals for men and women obtained by applying reference population marriage rates to the perturbed population. The marriage function uses the age preference function, assumed to be the same for the reference and the perturbed populations, to distribute the total number of new marriages. The marriage function also has an availability factor that varies as the population changes with time, where availability depends on the supply of unmarried men and women. To simplify exposition, only first marriage is treated, and the algorithm is illustrated by application to Zambia. In the second paper, remarriage and dissolution are included. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Life history determines genetic structure and evolutionary potential of host–parasite interactions

PubMed Central

Barrett, Luke G.; Thrall, Peter H.; Burdon, Jeremy J.; Linde, Celeste C.

2009-01-01

Measures of population genetic structure and diversity of disease-causing organisms are commonly used to draw inferences regarding their evolutionary history and potential to generate new variation in traits that determine interactions with their hosts. Parasite species exhibit a range of population structures and life-history strategies, including different transmission modes, life-cycle complexity, off-host survival mechanisms and dispersal ability. These are important determinants of the frequency and predictability of interactions with host species. Yet the complex causal relationships between spatial structure, life history and the evolutionary dynamics of parasite populations are not well understood. We demonstrate that a clear picture of the evolutionary potential of parasitic organisms and their demographic and evolutionary histories can only come from understanding the role of life history and spatial structure in influencing population dynamics and epidemiological patterns. PMID:18947899

Life history determines genetic structure and evolutionary potential of host-parasite interactions.

PubMed

Barrett, Luke G; Thrall, Peter H; Burdon, Jeremy J; Linde, Celeste C

2008-12-01

Measures of population genetic structure and diversity of disease-causing organisms are commonly used to draw inferences regarding their evolutionary history and potential to generate new variation in traits that determine interactions with their hosts. Parasite species exhibit a range of population structures and life-history strategies, including different transmission modes, life-cycle complexity, off-host survival mechanisms and dispersal ability. These are important determinants of the frequency and predictability of interactions with host species. Yet the complex causal relationships between spatial structure, life history and the evolutionary dynamics of parasite populations are not well understood. We demonstrate that a clear picture of the evolutionary potential of parasitic organisms and their demographic and evolutionary histories can only come from understanding the role of life history and spatial structure in influencing population dynamics and epidemiological patterns.

Age structure changes and extraordinary lifespan in wild medfly populations.

PubMed

Carey, James R; Papadopoulos, Nikos T; Müller, Hans-Georg; Katsoyannos, Byron I; Kouloussis, Nikos A; Wang, Jane-Ling; Wachter, Kenneth; Yu, Wei; Liedo, Pablo

2008-06-01

The main purpose of this study was to test the hypotheses that major changes in age structure occur in wild populations of the Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly) and that a substantial fraction of individuals survive to middle age and beyond (> 3-4 weeks). We thus brought reference life tables and deconvolution models to bear on medfly mortality data gathered from a 3-year study of field-captured individuals that were monitored in the laboratory. The average time-to-death of captured females differed between sampling dates by 23.9, 22.7, and 37.0 days in the 2003, 2004, and 2005 field seasons, respectively. These shifts in average times-to-death provided evidence of changes in population age structure. Estimates indicated that middle-aged medflies (> 30 days) were common in the population. A surprise in the study was the extraordinary longevity observed in field-captured medflies. For example, 19 captured females but no reference females survived in the laboratory for 140 days or more, and 6 captured but no reference males survived in the laboratory for 170 days or more. This paper advances the study of aging in the wild by introducing a new method for estimating age structure in insect populations, demonstrating that major changes in age structure occur in field populations of insects, showing that middle-aged individuals are common in the wild, and revealing the extraordinary lifespans of wild-caught individuals due to their early life experience in the field.

Estimating Allee dynamics before they can be observed: polar bears as a case study.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Lewis, Mark A; Derocher, Andrew E

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species.

Estimating Allee Dynamics before They Can Be Observed: Polar Bears as a Case Study

PubMed Central

Molnár, Péter K.; Lewis, Mark A.; Derocher, Andrew E.

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species. PMID:24427306

Changes in Age Structure and Rural Community Growth.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGranahan, David A.

1985-01-01

Whatever migration patterns evolve, changes in the age structure mean that rural communities in general can expect fairly stable elementary school population, reduced high school population, slower growth in new business and employment, and continued increase in the elderly population. (JHZ)

An agent-based computational model for tuberculosis spreading on age-structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graciani Rodrigues, C. C.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

2015-06-01

In this work we present an agent-based computational model to study the spreading of the tuberculosis (TB) disease on age-structured populations. The model proposed is a merge of two previous models: an agent-based computational model for the spreading of tuberculosis and a bit-string model for biological aging. The combination of TB with the population aging, reproduces the coexistence of health states, as seen in real populations. In addition, the universal exponential behavior of mortalities curves is still preserved. Finally, the population distribution as function of age shows the prevalence of TB mostly in elders, for high efficacy treatments.

Patch dynamics and the timing of colonization-abandonment events by male Kirtland’s Warblers in an early succession habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donner, Deahn M.; Ribic, Christine; Probst, John R.

2010-01-01

Habitat colonization and abandonment affects the distribution of a species in space and time, ultimately influencing the duration of time habitat is used and the total area of habitat occupied in any given year. Both aspects have important implications to long-term conservation planning. The importance of patch isolation and area to colonization–extinction events is well studied, but little information exists on how changing regional landscape structure and population dynamics influences the variability in the timing of patch colonization and abandonment events. We used 26 years of Kirtland’s Warbler (Dendroica kirtlandii) population data taken during a habitat restoration program (1979–2004) across its historical breeding range to examine the influence of patch attributes and temporal large-scale processes, specifically the rate of habitat turnover and fraction of occupied patches, on the year-to-year timing of patch colonization and abandonment since patch origin. We found the timing of patch colonization and abandonment was influenced by patch and large-scale regional factors. In this system, larger patches were typically colonized earlier (i.e., at a younger age) and abandoned later than smaller patches. Isolated patches (i.e., patches farther from another occupied patch) were generally colonized later and abandoned earlier. Patch habitat type affected colonization and abandonment; colonization occurred at similar patch ages between plantation and wildfire areas (9 and 8.5 years, respectively), but plantations were abandoned at earlier ages (13.9 years) than wildfire areas (16.4 years) resulting in shorter use. As the fraction of occupied patches increased, patches were colonized and abandoned at earlier ages. Patches were abandoned at older ages when the influx of new habitat patches was at low and high rates. Our results provide empirical support for the temporal influence of patch dynamics (i.e., patch destruction, creation, and succession) on local colonization and extinction processes that help explain large-scale patterns of habitat occupancy. Results highlight the need for practitioners to consider the timing of habitat restoration as well as total amount and spatial arrangement of habitat to sustain populations.

Tree Age Distributions Reveal Large-Scale Disturbance-Recovery Cycles in Three Tropical Forests.

PubMed

Vlam, Mart; van der Sleen, Peter; Groenendijk, Peter; Zuidema, Pieter A

2016-01-01

Over the past few decades there has been a growing realization that a large share of apparently 'virgin' or 'old-growth' tropical forests carries a legacy of past natural or anthropogenic disturbances that have a substantial effect on present-day forest composition, structure and dynamics. Yet, direct evidence of such disturbances is scarce and comparisons of disturbance dynamics across regions even more so. Here we present a tree-ring based reconstruction of disturbance histories from three tropical forest sites in Bolivia, Cameroon, and Thailand. We studied temporal patterns in tree regeneration of shade-intolerant tree species, because establishment of these trees is indicative for canopy disturbance. In three large areas (140-300 ha), stem disks and increment cores were collected for a total of 1154 trees (>5 cm diameter) from 12 tree species to estimate the age of every tree. Using these age estimates we produced population age distributions, which were analyzed for evidence of past disturbance. Our approach allowed us to reconstruct patterns of tree establishment over a period of around 250 years. In Bolivia, we found continuous regeneration rates of three species and a peaked age distribution of a long-lived pioneer species. In both Cameroon and Thailand we found irregular age distributions, indicating strongly reduced regeneration rates over a period of 10-60 years. Past fires, windthrow events or anthropogenic disturbances all provide plausible explanations for the reported variation in tree age across the three sites. Our results support the recent idea that the long-term dynamics of tropical forests are impacted by large-scale disturbance-recovery cycles, similar to those driving temperate forest dynamics.

Tree Age Distributions Reveal Large-Scale Disturbance-Recovery Cycles in Three Tropical Forests

PubMed Central

Vlam, Mart; van der Sleen, Peter; Groenendijk, Peter; Zuidema, Pieter A.

2017-01-01

Over the past few decades there has been a growing realization that a large share of apparently ‘virgin’ or ‘old-growth’ tropical forests carries a legacy of past natural or anthropogenic disturbances that have a substantial effect on present-day forest composition, structure and dynamics. Yet, direct evidence of such disturbances is scarce and comparisons of disturbance dynamics across regions even more so. Here we present a tree-ring based reconstruction of disturbance histories from three tropical forest sites in Bolivia, Cameroon, and Thailand. We studied temporal patterns in tree regeneration of shade-intolerant tree species, because establishment of these trees is indicative for canopy disturbance. In three large areas (140–300 ha), stem disks and increment cores were collected for a total of 1154 trees (>5 cm diameter) from 12 tree species to estimate the age of every tree. Using these age estimates we produced population age distributions, which were analyzed for evidence of past disturbance. Our approach allowed us to reconstruct patterns of tree establishment over a period of around 250 years. In Bolivia, we found continuous regeneration rates of three species and a peaked age distribution of a long-lived pioneer species. In both Cameroon and Thailand we found irregular age distributions, indicating strongly reduced regeneration rates over a period of 10–60 years. Past fires, windthrow events or anthropogenic disturbances all provide plausible explanations for the reported variation in tree age across the three sites. Our results support the recent idea that the long-term dynamics of tropical forests are impacted by large-scale disturbance-recovery cycles, similar to those driving temperate forest dynamics. PMID:28105034

New science from the phase space of old stellar systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varri, Anna Lisa; Breen, Philip G.; Heggie, Douglas C.; Tiongco, Maria; Vesperini, Enrico

2017-06-01

Our traditional interpretative picture of the internal dynamics of globular clusters has been recently revolutionized by a series of discoveries about their chemical, structural, and kinematic properties. The empirical evidence that their velocity space is much more complex than usually expected encourages us to use them as refreshingly novel phase space laboratories for some long-forgotten aspects of collisional gravitational dynamics. Such a realization, coupled with the discovery that the stars in clusters were not all born at once in a single population, makes them new, challenging chemodynamical puzzles.Thanks to the proper motions of thousands of stars that will be available from the Gaia mission, we are about to enter a new ''golden age'' for the study of the dynamics of this class of stellar systems, as the full phase space of several Galactic globular clusters will be soon unlocked for the first time. In this context, I will present the highlights of a more realistic dynamical paradigm for these intriguing stellar systems, with emphasis on the role of angular momentum, velocity anisotropy and external tidal field. Such a fundamental understanding of the emerging phase space complexity of globulars will allow us to address many open questions about their rich dynamical evolution, their elusive stellar populations and putative black holes, and their role within the history of our Galaxy.

The influence of historical climate on the population dynamics of three dominant sagebrush steppe plants.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change could alter the population growth of dominant species, leading to profound effects on community structure and ecosystem dynamics. Understanding the links between historical variation in climate and population vital rates (survival, growth, recruitment) is one way to predict the impact...

Population density and phenotypic attributes influence the level of nematode parasitism in roe deer.

PubMed

Body, Guillaume; Ferté, Hubert; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Delorme, Daniel; Klein, François; Gilot-Fromont, Emmanuelle

2011-11-01

The impact of parasites on population dynamics is well documented, but less is known on how host population density affects parasite spread. This relationship is difficult to assess because of confounding effects of social structure, population density, and environmental conditions that lead to biased among-population comparisons. Here, we analyzed the infestation by two groups of nematodes (gastro-intestinal (GI) strongyles and Trichuris) in the roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) population of Trois Fontaines (France) between 1997 and 2007. During this period, we experimentally manipulated population density through changes in removals. Using measures collected on 297 individuals, we quantified the impact of density on parasite spread after taking into account possible influences of date, age, sex, body mass, and weather conditions. The prevalence and abundance of eggs of both parasites in females were positively related to roe deer density, except Trichuris in adult females. We also found a negative relationship between parasitism and body mass, and strong age and sex-dependent patterns of parasitism. Prime-age adults were less often parasitized and had lower fecal egg counts than fawns or old individuals, and males were more heavily and more often infected than females. Trichuris parasites were not affected by weather, whereas GI strongyles were less present after dry and hot summers. In the range of observed densities, the observed effect of density likely involves a variation of the exposure rate, as opposed to variation in host susceptibility.

Modelling southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina using an individual-based model coupled with a dynamic energy budget

PubMed Central

Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Corney, Stuart P.; McMahon, Clive R.; Hindell, Mark A.

2018-01-01

Higher trophic-level species are an integral component of any marine ecosystem. Despite their importance, methods for representing these species in end-to-end ecosystem models often have limited representation of life histories, energetics and behaviour. We built an individual-based model coupled with a dynamic energy budget for female southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina to demonstrate a method for detailed representation of marine mammals. We aimed to develop a model which could i) simulate energy use and life histories, as well as breeding traits of southern elephant seals in an emergent manner, ii) project a stable population over time, and iii) have realistic population dynamics and structure based on emergent life history features (such as age at first breeding, lifespan, fecundity and (yearling) survival). We evaluated the model’s ability to represent a stable population over long time periods (>10 generations), including the sensitivity of the emergent properties to variations in key parameters. Analyses indicated that the model is sensitive to changes in resource availability and energy requirements for the transition from pup to juvenile, and juvenile to adult stage. This was particularly the case for breeding success and yearling survival. This model is suitable for use as a standalone tool for investigating the impacts of changes to behaviour and population responses of southern elephant seals. PMID:29596456

Age structure and age-related performance of sulfur cinquefoil (Potentilla recta).

Treesearch

Dana L. Perkins; Catherine G. Parks; Kathleen A. Dwire; Bryan A. Endress; Kelsi L. Johnson

2006-01-01

Age distributions of sulfur cinquefoil populations were determined on sites that were historically grazed, cultivated, and mechanically disturbed. From 12 sites, a total of 279 reproductively active plants were collected and aged by using herbchronology (counting rings in the secondary root xylem of the root crown) to (1) estimate the age structure of the populations...

A Demographic Deficit? Local Population Aging and Access to Services in Rural America, 1990–2010

PubMed Central

Thiede, Brian; Brown, David L.; Sanders, Scott R.; Glasgow, Nina; Kulcsar, Laszlo J.

2017-01-01

Population aging is being experienced by many rural communities in the U.S., as evidenced by increases in the median age and the high incidence of natural population decrease. The implications of these changes in population structure for the daily lives of the residents in such communities have received little attention. We address this issue in the current study by examining the relationship between population aging and the availability of service-providing establishments in the rural U.S. between 1990 and 2010. Using data mainly from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we estimate a series of fixed-effects regression models to identify the relationship between median age and establishment counts net of changes in overall population and other factors. We find a significant, but non-linear relationship between county median age and the total number of service-providing establishments, and counts of most specific types of services. We find a positive effect of total population size across all of our models. This total population effect is consistent with other research, but the independent effects of age structure that we observe represent a novel finding and suggest that age structure is a salient factor in local rural development and community wellbeing. PMID:28757660

Longitudinal patterns in flathead catfish relative abundance and length at age within a large river: Effects of an urban gradient

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paukert, C.P.; Makinster, A.S.

2009-01-01

We investigated the spatial variation of flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris) relative abundance and growth in the 274 km long Kansas River to determine if population dynamics of catfish are related to urbanization. Electrofishing was conducted at 462 random sites throughout the river in summer, 2005-2006 to collect fish. Relative abundance of age 1 fish (???200mm), subadult (>200-400mm) and adult fish (>400 mm) ranged from 0.34 to 14.67 fish h-1, mean length at age 1 was 165 (range: 128-195) mm total length (TL) and mean length at age 3 was 376 mm TL (range: 293-419mm TL). The proportion of land use within 200 m of the river edge was between 0 and 0.54 urban. River reaches with high relative abundance of age 1 flathead catfish had high relative abundance of subadult and adult catfish. River reaches with fast flathead catfish growth to age 1 had fast growth to age 3. High urban land use and riprap in the riparian area were evident in river reaches near the heavily populated Kansas City and Topeka, Kansas, USA. Reaches with increased number of log jams and islands had decreased riparian agriculture. Areas of low urbanization had faster flathead catfish growth (r = 0.67, p = 0.005). Relative abundance of flathead catfish was higher in more agricultural areas (r = -0.57, p = 0.02). Changes in land use in riverine environments may alter population dynamics of a fish species within a river. Spatial differences in population dynamics need to be considered when evaluating riverine fish populations. Published in 2008 by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Genetic Structure and the North American Postglacial Expansion of the Barnacle, Semibalanus balanoides

PubMed Central

O’Brien, Megan A.; Schmidt, Paul S.; Rand, David M.

2012-01-01

Population genetic characteristics are shaped by the life-history traits of organisms and the geologic history of their habitat. This study provides a neutral framework for understanding the population dynamics and opportunities for selection in Semibalanus balanoides, a species that figures prominently in ecological and evolutionary studies in the Atlantic intertidal. We used mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region (N = 131) and microsatellite markers (∼40 individuals/site/locus) to survey populations of the broadly dispersing acorn barnacle from 8 sites spanning 800 km of North American coast and 1 site in Europe. Patterns of mtDNA sequence evolution were consistent with larger population sizes in Europe and population expansion at the conclusion of the last ice age, approximately 20 000 years ago, in North America. A significant portion of mitochondrial diversity was partitioned between the continents (φST = 0.281), but there was only weak structure observed from mtDNA within North America. Microsatellites showed significant structuring between the continents (FST = 0.021) as well as within North America (FST = 0.013). Isolation by distance in North America was largely driven by a split between populations south of Cape Cod and all others (P < 10−4). The glacial events responsible for generating allelic diversity at mtDNA and microsatellites may also be responsible for generating selectable variation at metabolic enzymes in S. balanoides. PMID:21885571

Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

PubMed Central

Hanski, Ilkka A.

2011-01-01

Demographic population dynamics, gene flow, and local adaptation may influence each other and lead to coupling of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, especially in species inhabiting fragmented heterogeneous environments. Here, I review long-term research on eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly inhabiting a large network of approximately 4,000 meadows in Finland. The metapopulation persists in a balance between frequent local extinctions and recolonizations. The genetic spatial structure as defined by neutral markers is much more coarse-grained than the demographic spatial structure determined by the fragmented habitat, yet small-scale spatial structure has important consequences for the dynamics. I discuss three examples of eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics. (i) Extinction-colonization metapopulation dynamics influence allele frequency changes in the phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) gene, which leads to strong associations between genetic variation in Pgi and dispersal, recolonization, and local population dynamics. (ii) Inbreeding in local populations increases their risk for extinction, whereas reciprocal effects between inbreeding, population size, and emigration represent likely eco-evolutionary feedbacks. (iii) Genetically determined female oviposition preference for two host plant species exhibits a cline paralleling a gradient in host plant relative abundances, and host plant preference of dispersing females in relation to the host plant composition of habitat patches influences immigration (gene flow) and recolonization (founder events). Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in heterogeneous environments may not lead to directional evolutionary changes unless the environment itself changes, but eco-evolutionary dynamics may contribute to the maintenance of genetic variation attributable to fluctuating selection in space and time. PMID:21788506

Population and prehistory III: food-dependent demography in variable environments.

PubMed

Lee, Charlotte T; Puleston, Cedric O; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2009-11-01

The population dynamics of preindustrial societies depend intimately on their surroundings, and food is a primary means through which environment influences population size and individual well-being. Food production requires labor; thus, dependence of survival and fertility on food involves dependence of a population's future on its current state. We use a perturbation approach to analyze the effects of random environmental variation on this nonlinear, age-structured system. We show that in expanding populations, direct environmental effects dominate induced population fluctuations, so environmental variability has little effect on mean hunger levels, although it does decrease population growth. The growth rate determines the time until population is limited by space. This limitation introduces a tradeoff between population density and well-being, so population effects become more important than the direct effects of the environment: environmental fluctuation increases mortality, releasing density dependence and raising average well-being for survivors. We discuss the social implications of these findings for the long-term fate of populations as they transition from expansion into limitation, given that conditions leading to high well-being during growth depress well-being during limitation.

Evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in neutral populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

2018-01-01

Cooperation is a difficult proposition in the face of Darwinian selection. Those that defect have an evolutionary advantage over cooperators who should therefore die out. However, spatial structure enables cooperators to survive through the formation of homogeneous clusters, which is the hallmark of network reciprocity. Here we go beyond this traditional setup and study the spatiotemporal dynamics of cooperation in a population of populations. We use the prisoner's dilemma game as the mathematical model and show that considering several populations simultaneously gives rise to fascinating spatiotemporal dynamics and pattern formation. Even the simplest assumption that strategies between different populations are payoff-neutral with one another results in the spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance, where defectors of one population become prey of cooperators in the other population, and vice versa. Moreover, if social interactions within different populations are characterized by significantly different temptations to defect, we observe that defectors in the population with the largest temptation counterintuitively vanish the fastest, while cooperators that hang on eventually take over the whole available space. Our results reveal that considering the simultaneous presence of different populations significantly expands the complexity of evolutionary dynamics in structured populations, and it allows us to understand the stability of cooperation under adverse conditions that could never be bridged by network reciprocity alone.

Dynamics of Volunteering in Older Europeans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hank, Karsten; Erlinghagen, Marcel

2010-01-01

Purpose: To investigate the dynamics of volunteering in the population aged 50 years or older across 11 Continental European countries. Design and Methods: Using longitudinal data from the first 2 waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, we run multivariate regressions on a set of binary-dependent variables indicating…

Bridging the Timescales of Single-Cell and Population Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jafarpour, Farshid; Wright, Charles S.; Gudjonson, Herman; Riebling, Jedidiah; Dawson, Emma; Lo, Klevin; Fiebig, Aretha; Crosson, Sean; Dinner, Aaron R.; Iyer-Biswas, Srividya

2018-04-01

How are granular details of stochastic growth and division of individual cells reflected in smooth deterministic growth of population numbers? We provide an integrated, multiscale perspective of microbial growth dynamics by formulating a data-validated theoretical framework that accounts for observables at both single-cell and population scales. We derive exact analytical complete time-dependent solutions to cell-age distributions and population growth rates as functionals of the underlying interdivision time distributions, for symmetric and asymmetric cell division. These results provide insights into the surprising implications of stochastic single-cell dynamics for population growth. Using our results for asymmetric division, we deduce the time to transition from the reproductively quiescent (swarmer) to the replication-competent (stalked) stage of the Caulobacter crescentus life cycle. Remarkably, population numbers can spontaneously oscillate with time. We elucidate the physics leading to these population oscillations. For C. crescentus cells, we show that a simple measurement of the population growth rate, for a given growth condition, is sufficient to characterize the condition-specific cellular unit of time and, thus, yields the mean (single-cell) growth and division timescales, fluctuations in cell division times, the cell-age distribution, and the quiescence timescale.

Efficient Vaccine Distribution Based on a Hybrid Compartmental Model.

PubMed

Yu, Zhiwen; Liu, Jiming; Wang, Xiaowei; Zhu, Xianjun; Wang, Daxing; Han, Guoqiang

2016-01-01

To effectively and efficiently reduce the morbidity and mortality that may be caused by outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, it is very important for public health agencies to make informed decisions for controlling the spread of the disease. Such decisions must incorporate various kinds of intervention strategies, such as vaccinations, school closures and border restrictions. Recently, researchers have paid increased attention to searching for effective vaccine distribution strategies for reducing the effects of pandemic outbreaks when resources are limited. Most of the existing research work has been focused on how to design an effective age-structured epidemic model and to select a suitable vaccine distribution strategy to prevent the propagation of an infectious virus. Models that evaluate age structure effects are common, but models that additionally evaluate geographical effects are less common. In this paper, we propose a new SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious šC recovered) model, named the hybrid SEIR-V model (HSEIR-V), which considers not only the dynamics of infection prevalence in several age-specific host populations, but also seeks to characterize the dynamics by which a virus spreads in various geographic districts. Several vaccination strategies such as different kinds of vaccine coverage, different vaccine releasing times and different vaccine deployment methods are incorporated into the HSEIR-V compartmental model. We also design four hybrid vaccination distribution strategies (based on population size, contact pattern matrix, infection rate and infectious risk) for controlling the spread of viral infections. Based on data from the 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza epidemic, we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed HSEIR-V model and study the effects of different types of human behaviour in responding to epidemics.

Efficient Vaccine Distribution Based on a Hybrid Compartmental Model

PubMed Central

Yu, Zhiwen; Liu, Jiming; Wang, Xiaowei; Zhu, Xianjun; Wang, Daxing; Han, Guoqiang

2016-01-01

To effectively and efficiently reduce the morbidity and mortality that may be caused by outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, it is very important for public health agencies to make informed decisions for controlling the spread of the disease. Such decisions must incorporate various kinds of intervention strategies, such as vaccinations, school closures and border restrictions. Recently, researchers have paid increased attention to searching for effective vaccine distribution strategies for reducing the effects of pandemic outbreaks when resources are limited. Most of the existing research work has been focused on how to design an effective age-structured epidemic model and to select a suitable vaccine distribution strategy to prevent the propagation of an infectious virus. Models that evaluate age structure effects are common, but models that additionally evaluate geographical effects are less common. In this paper, we propose a new SEIR (susceptible—exposed—infectious šC recovered) model, named the hybrid SEIR-V model (HSEIR-V), which considers not only the dynamics of infection prevalence in several age-specific host populations, but also seeks to characterize the dynamics by which a virus spreads in various geographic districts. Several vaccination strategies such as different kinds of vaccine coverage, different vaccine releasing times and different vaccine deployment methods are incorporated into the HSEIR-V compartmental model. We also design four hybrid vaccination distribution strategies (based on population size, contact pattern matrix, infection rate and infectious risk) for controlling the spread of viral infections. Based on data from the 2009–2010 H1N1 influenza epidemic, we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed HSEIR-V model and study the effects of different types of human behaviour in responding to epidemics. PMID:27233015

The dynamics of fish populations in the Palancar stream,a small tributary of the river Guadalquivir, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bravo, Ramón; Soriguer, Mila C.; Villar, Noelia; Hernando, José A.

2001-02-01

The relationship between flooding and changes in the size distribution of fish populations in the Palancar stream confirms observations in other rivers. On average, density decreased by 36.2 % and biomass increased by 14.5 %, passing from a period of severe drought to one of heavier than normal rains. Precipitation is the most important of the many factors affecting the populations of the Palancar stream; the most evident changes all occurred after the drought. During the drought period, the marked seasonal fluctuation in flow was the most important factor regulating the population dynamics. Fish density and biomass varied in proportion to the water volume. During the rainy period, the studied section of the river was found to be an important reproduction and nursery area, with juveniles and individuals of reproduction age dominating. The presence of Micropterus salmoides, an introduced piscivorous species, is another factor affecting the population dynamics in the Palancar stream. The observed absence of age 0+ individuals of the dominant populations is considered a direct effect of predation.

Individual Differences in Dynamic Functional Brain Connectivity across the Human Lifespan

PubMed Central

Davison, Elizabeth N.; Turner, Benjamin O.; Miller, Michael B.; Carlson, Jean M.

2016-01-01

Individual differences in brain functional networks may be related to complex personal identifiers, including health, age, and ability. Dynamic network theory has been used to identify properties of dynamic brain function from fMRI data, but the majority of analyses and findings remain at the level of the group. Here, we apply hypergraph analysis, a method from dynamic network theory, to quantify individual differences in brain functional dynamics. Using a summary metric derived from the hypergraph formalism—hypergraph cardinality—we investigate individual variations in two separate, complementary data sets. The first data set (“multi-task”) consists of 77 individuals engaging in four consecutive cognitive tasks. We observe that hypergraph cardinality exhibits variation across individuals while remaining consistent within individuals between tasks; moreover, the analysis of one of the memory tasks revealed a marginally significant correspondence between hypergraph cardinality and age. This finding motivated a similar analysis of the second data set (“age-memory”), in which 95 individuals, aged 18–75, performed a memory task with a similar structure to the multi-task memory task. With the increased age range in the age-memory data set, the correlation between hypergraph cardinality and age correspondence becomes significant. We discuss these results in the context of the well-known finding linking age with network structure, and suggest that hypergraph analysis should serve as a useful tool in furthering our understanding of the dynamic network structure of the brain. PMID:27880785

G-quadruplex dynamics.

PubMed

Harkness, Robert W; Mittermaier, Anthony K

2017-11-01

G-quadruplexes (GQs) are four-stranded nucleic acid secondary structures formed by guanosine (G)-rich DNA and RNA sequences. It is becoming increasingly clear that cellular processes including gene expression and mRNA translation are regulated by GQs. GQ structures have been extensively characterized, however little attention to date has been paid to their conformational dynamics, despite the fact that many biological GQ sequences populate multiple structures of similar free energies, leading to an ensemble of exchanging conformations. The impact of these dynamics on biological function is currently not well understood. Recently, structural dynamics have been demonstrated to entropically stabilize GQ ensembles, potentially modulating gene expression. Transient, low-populated states in GQ ensembles may additionally regulate nucleic acid interactions and function. This review will underscore the interplay of GQ dynamics and biological function, focusing on several dynamic processes for biological GQs and the characterization of GQ dynamics by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy in conjunction with other biophysical techniques. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Biophysics in Canada, edited by Lewis Kay, John Baenziger, Albert Berghuis and Peter Tieleman. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relations between habitat variability and population dynamics of bass in the Huron River, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bovee, Ken D.; Newcomb, Tammy J.; Coon, Thomas G.

1994-01-01

One of the assumption of the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM) is that the dynamics of fish populations are directly or indirectly related to habitat availability. Because this assumption has not been successfully tested in coolwater streams, questions arise regarding the validity of the methodology in such streams. The purpose of our study was to determine whether relations existed between habitat availability and population dynamics of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) and rock bass (Ambloplites rupestris) in a 16-km reach of the Huron River in southeastern Michigan. Both species exhibited strong to moderate carryover of year classes from age 0 through age 2, indicating that adult populations were related to factors affecting recruitment. Year-class strength and subsequent numbers of yearling bass were related to the availability of young-of-year habitat during the first growing season for a cohort. Number of age-0, age-1, and adult smallmouth bass were related to the average length at age 0 for the cohort. Length at age 0 was associated with young-of-year habitat and thermal regime during the first growing season. Rock bass populations exhibited similar associations among age classes and habitat variables. Compared to smallmouth bass, the number of age-2 rock bass was associated more closely with their length at age 0 than with year-class strength. Length at age 0 and year-class strength of rock bass were associated with the same habitat variables as those related to age-0 smallmouth bass. We hypothesize that an energetic mechanism linked thermal regime to length at age 0 and that increased growth resulted in higher survival rates from age 0 to age 1. We also postulate that young-of-year habitat provided protection from predators, higher production of food resources, and increased foraging efficiency. We conclude that the IFIM is a valid methodology for instream flow investigations of coolwater streams. The results for our study support the contention that the dynamics of bass populations are directly or indirectly related to habitat availability in coolwater streams. Our study also revealed several implications related to the operational application of the IFIM in coolwater streams: 1. Greater emphasis should be placed on the alleviation of habitat impacts to early life history phases of bass. 2. Effects of the thermal regime are important in some coolwater streams even if temperatures remain within nonlethal limits. Degree-day analyses should be routinely included in study plans for applications of the IFIM in coolwater streams. 3. The smallest amount of habitat occurring within or across years is not necessarily the most significant event affecting population dynamics. The timing of extreme events can be as important as their magnitude. 4. Population-related habitat limitations were associated with high flows more often than with low flows (although both occurred). Negotiations that focus only on minimum flows may preclude viable water management options and ignore significant biological events. This finding is particularly relevant to negotiations involving hydrospeaking operations. 5. IFIM users are advised to consider the use of binary criteria in place of conventional suitability index curves in microhabitat simulations. Criteria defining the optimal ranges of variables are preferable to broader rangers, and criteria that simply define suitable conditions should be avoided entirely.

Genetic connectivity among swarming sites in the wide ranging and recently declining little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus)

PubMed Central

Burns, Lynne E; Frasier, Timothy R; Broders, Hugh G

2014-01-01

Characterizing movement dynamics and spatial aspects of gene flow within a species permits inference on population structuring. As patterns of structuring are products of historical and current demographics and gene flow, assessment of structure through time can yield an understanding of evolutionary dynamics acting on populations that are necessary to inform management. Recent dramatic population declines in hibernating bats in eastern North America from white-nose syndrome have prompted the need for information on movement dynamics for multiple bat species. We characterized population genetic structure of the little brown bat, Myotis lucifugus, at swarming sites in southeastern Canada using 9 nuclear microsatellites and a 292-bp region of the mitochondrial genome. Analyses of FST, ΦST, and Bayesian clustering (STRUCTURE) found weak levels of genetic structure among swarming sites for the nuclear and mitochondrial genome (Global FST = 0.001, P < 0.05, Global ΦST = 0.045, P < 0.01, STRUCTURE K = 1) suggesting high contemporary gene flow. Hierarchical AMOVA also suggests little structuring at a regional (provincial) level. Metrics of nuclear genetic structure were not found to differ between males and females suggesting weak asymmetries in gene flow between the sexes. However, a greater degree of mitochondrial structuring does support male-biased dispersal long term. Demographic analyses were consistent with past population growth and suggest a population expansion occurred from approximately 1250 to 12,500 BP, following Pleistocene deglaciation in the region. Our study suggests high gene flow and thus a high degree of connectivity among bats that visit swarming sites whereby mainland areas of the region may be best considered as one large gene pool for management and conservation. PMID:25505539

Two disjunct Pleistocene populations and anisotropic postglacial expansion shaped the current genetic structure of the relict plant Amborella trichopoda

PubMed Central

Tournebize, Rémi; Manel, Stéphanie; Vigouroux, Yves; Munoz, François; de Kochko, Alexandre

2017-01-01

Past climate fluctuations shaped the population dynamics of organisms in space and time, and have impacted their present intra-specific genetic structure. Demo-genetic modelling allows inferring the way past demographic and migration dynamics have determined this structure. Amborella trichopoda is an emblematic relict plant endemic to New Caledonia, widely distributed in the understory of non-ultramafic rainforests. We assessed the influence of the last glacial climates on the demographic history and the paleo-distribution of 12 Amborella populations covering the whole current distribution. We performed coalescent genetic modelling of these dynamics, based on both whole-genome resequencing and microsatellite genotyping data. We found that the two main genetic groups of Amborella were shaped by the divergence of two ancestral populations during the last glacial maximum. From 12,800 years BP, the South ancestral population has expanded 6.3-fold while the size of the North population has remained stable. Recent asymmetric gene flow between the groups further contributed to the phylogeographical pattern. Spatially explicit coalescent modelling allowed us to estimate the location of ancestral populations with good accuracy (< 22 km) and provided indications regarding the mid-elevation pathways that facilitated post-glacial expansion. PMID:28820899

Population viability of the Snake River chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emlen, John M.

1995-01-01

In the presence of historical data, population viability models of intermediate complexity can be parameterized and utilized to project the consequences of various management actions for endangered species. A general stochastic population dynamics model with density feedback, age structure, and autocorrelated environmental fluctuations was constructed and parameterized for best fit over 36 years of spring chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) redd count data in five Idaho index streams. Simulations indicate that persistence of the Snake River spring chinook salmon population depends primarily on density-independent mortality. Improvement of rearing habitat, predator control, reduced fishing pressure, and improved dam passage all would alleviate density-independent mortality. The current value of the Ricker α should provide for a continuation of the status quo. A recovery of the population to 1957–1961 levels within 100 years would require an approximately 75% increase in survival and (or) fecundity. Manipulations of the Ricker β are likely to have little or no effect on persistence versus extinction, but considerable influence on population size.

The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

2018-05-01

In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics.

PubMed

Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

2018-05-01

In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

Effects of aging in catastrophe on the steady state and dynamics of a microtubule population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jemseena, V.; Gopalakrishnan, Manoj

2015-05-01

Several independent observations have suggested that the catastrophe transition in microtubules is not a first-order process, as is usually assumed. Recent in vitro observations by Gardner et al. [M. K. Gardner et al., Cell 147, 1092 (2011), 10.1016/j.cell.2011.10.037] showed that microtubule catastrophe takes place via multiple steps and the frequency increases with the age of the filament. Here we investigate, via numerical simulations and mathematical calculations, some of the consequences of the age dependence of catastrophe on the dynamics of microtubules as a function of the aging rate, for two different models of aging: exponential growth, but saturating asymptotically, and purely linear growth. The boundary demarcating the steady-state and non-steady-state regimes in the dynamics is derived analytically in both cases. Numerical simulations, supported by analytical calculations in the linear model, show that aging leads to nonexponential length distributions in steady state. More importantly, oscillations ensue in microtubule length and velocity. The regularity of oscillations, as characterized by the negative dip in the autocorrelation function, is reduced by increasing the frequency of rescue events. Our study shows that the age dependence of catastrophe could function as an intrinsic mechanism to generate oscillatory dynamics in a microtubule population, distinct from hitherto identified ones.

Structural drift: the population dynamics of sequential learning.

PubMed

Crutchfield, James P; Whalen, Sean

2012-01-01

We introduce a theory of sequential causal inference in which learners in a chain estimate a structural model from their upstream "teacher" and then pass samples from the model to their downstream "student". It extends the population dynamics of genetic drift, recasting Kimura's selectively neutral theory as a special case of a generalized drift process using structured populations with memory. We examine the diffusion and fixation properties of several drift processes and propose applications to learning, inference, and evolution. We also demonstrate how the organization of drift process space controls fidelity, facilitates innovations, and leads to information loss in sequential learning with and without memory.

Determine Age-structure of Gelatinous Zooplankton Using Optical Coherence Tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, H.; Shahrestani, S.; He, Y.

2016-02-01

Gelatinous are delicate and transparent by nature, but are conspicuous in many ecosystems when in bloom. Their proliferations are a bothersome and costly nuisance and influencing important food webs and species interactions. More importantly, gelatinous zooplankton respond to climate change rapidly and understanding their upsurge needs information on their recruitment and population dynamics which in turn require their age-structure. However, ageing gelatinous zooplankton is often restricted by the fact that they shrink under unfavorable conditions. In the present study, we examine the potential of using optical coherence tomography (OCT) to age gelatinous zooplankton. OCT is a non-invasive imaging technique that uses light waves to examine 2D or 3D structure of target objects at a resolution of 3-5 µm. We were able to successfully capture both 3D and 2D images of sea nettle muscle fibers. Preliminary results on ctenophores will be discussed. Overall, this non-destructive sampling allows us to scan and capture images of mesoglea from jellyfish cultured in the lab, using the same individual repeatedly through time, documenting its growth which will provide precise measurements to construct an age key that will be applied to gelatinous zooplankton captured in the field. Coupled with information on abundance, we can start to quantify their recruitment timing and success rate.

Dynamical properties of the Penna aging model applied to the population of wolves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makowiec, Danuta

1997-02-01

The parameters of th Penna bit-string model of aging of biological systems are systematically tested to better understand the model itself as well as the results arising from applying this model to studies of the development of the stationary population of Alaska wolves.

Accounting for Age Uncertainty in Growth Modeling, the Case Study of Yellowfin Tuna (Thunnus albacares) of the Indian Ocean

PubMed Central

Dortel, Emmanuelle; Massiot-Granier, Félix; Rivot, Etienne; Million, Julien; Hallier, Jean-Pierre; Morize, Eric; Munaron, Jean-Marie; Bousquet, Nicolas; Chassot, Emmanuel

2013-01-01

Age estimates, typically determined by counting periodic growth increments in calcified structures of vertebrates, are the basis of population dynamics models used for managing exploited or threatened species. In fisheries research, the use of otolith growth rings as an indicator of fish age has increased considerably in recent decades. However, otolith readings include various sources of uncertainty. Current ageing methods, which converts an average count of rings into age, only provide periodic age estimates in which the range of uncertainty is fully ignored. In this study, we describe a hierarchical model for estimating individual ages from repeated otolith readings. The model was developed within a Bayesian framework to explicitly represent the sources of uncertainty associated with age estimation, to allow for individual variations and to include knowledge on parameters from expertise. The performance of the proposed model was examined through simulations, and then it was coupled to a two-stanza somatic growth model to evaluate the impact of the age estimation method on the age composition of commercial fisheries catches. We illustrate our approach using the saggital otoliths of yellowfin tuna of the Indian Ocean collected through large-scale mark-recapture experiments. The simulation performance suggested that the ageing error model was able to estimate the ageing biases and provide accurate age estimates, regardless of the age of the fish. Coupled with the growth model, this approach appeared suitable for modeling the growth of Indian Ocean yellowfin and is consistent with findings of previous studies. The simulations showed that the choice of the ageing method can strongly affect growth estimates with subsequent implications for age-structured data used as inputs for population models. Finally, our modeling approach revealed particularly useful to reflect uncertainty around age estimates into the process of growth estimation and it can be applied to any study relying on age estimation. PMID:23637773

Modeling socio-demography to capture tuberculosis transmission dynamics in a low burden setting

PubMed Central

Ajelli, Marco; Yang, Zhenhua; Merler, Stefano; Furlanello, Cesare; Kirschner, Denise

2011-01-01

Evidence of preferential mixing through selected social routes has been suggested for the transmission of tuberculosis (TB) infection in low burden settings. A realistic modelization of these contact routes is needed to appropriately assess the impact of individually targeted control strategies, such as contact network investigation of index cases and treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI). We propose an age-structured, socio-demographic individual based model (IBM) with a realistic, time-evolving structure of preferential contacts in a population. In particular, transmission within households, schools and work-places, together with a component of casual, distance-dependent contacts are considered. We also compared the model against two other formulations having no social structure of contacts (homogeneous mixing transmission): a baseline deterministic model without age structure and an age-structured IBM. The socio-demographic IBM better fitted recent longitudinal data on TB epidemiology in Arkansas, USA, which serves as an example of a low burden setting. Inclusion of age structure in the model proved fundamental to capturing actual proportions of reactivated TB cases (as opposed to recently transmitted) as well as profiling age-group specific incidence. The socio-demographic structure additionally provides a prediction of TB transmission rates (the rate of infection in household contacts and the rate of secondary cases in household and workplace contacts). These results suggest that the socio-demographic IBM is an optimal choice for evaluating current control strategies, including contact network investigation of index cases, and the simulation of alternative scenarios, particularly for TB eradication targets. PMID:21906603

Towards a novel model for studying the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian population by age and socioeconomic status

PubMed Central

Sarmiento, Olga L.; Olaya, Camilo; Lemoine, Pablo D.; Valdivia, Juan A.; Zarama, Roberto

2018-01-01

Low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) are experiencing a nutritional transition in which the burden of obesity tends to shift towards the lower-socioeconomic status (SES) group. We propose a system dynamics (SD) model for assessing the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian urban population by age and SES projected to 2030. This SD model captures the ageing population according to body mass index (BMI) categories and SES. In this model, the transference rates (TRs) between BMI categories by age and SES are estimated using a heuristic based on data obtained from national surveys. The simulation results show that the Colombian population, particularly those aged 20 to 39 years with a lower SES, is moving towards the overweight and obese categories. The TRs for overweight and obese categories in the lower SES group (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0215 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0098 (per year)) are increasing more rapidly than the those in the middle (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0162 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0065 (per year)) and higher SES groups (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0166 and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0054 (per year)). Additionally, from 2005 to 2010, individuals aged 20 to 39 years had the highest TRs towards the overweight and obese categories (from 0.026 to 0.036 per year and from 0.0064 to 0.012 per year, respectively). The TRs also indicated that children aged 0 to 14 years are moving from the obese to overweight and from the overweight to not overweight categories. These TRs show that the Colombian population is experiencing an SES-related nutritional transition that is affecting the lower SES population. The proposed model could be implemented to assess the nutritional transitions experienced in other LMICs. PMID:29420563

Towards a novel model for studying the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian population by age and socioeconomic status.

PubMed

Meisel, Jose D; Sarmiento, Olga L; Olaya, Camilo; Lemoine, Pablo D; Valdivia, Juan A; Zarama, Roberto

2018-01-01

Low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) are experiencing a nutritional transition in which the burden of obesity tends to shift towards the lower-socioeconomic status (SES) group. We propose a system dynamics (SD) model for assessing the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian urban population by age and SES projected to 2030. This SD model captures the ageing population according to body mass index (BMI) categories and SES. In this model, the transference rates (TRs) between BMI categories by age and SES are estimated using a heuristic based on data obtained from national surveys. The simulation results show that the Colombian population, particularly those aged 20 to 39 years with a lower SES, is moving towards the overweight and obese categories. The TRs for overweight and obese categories in the lower SES group (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0215 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0098 (per year)) are increasing more rapidly than the those in the middle (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0162 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0065 (per year)) and higher SES groups (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0166 and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0054 (per year)). Additionally, from 2005 to 2010, individuals aged 20 to 39 years had the highest TRs towards the overweight and obese categories (from 0.026 to 0.036 per year and from 0.0064 to 0.012 per year, respectively). The TRs also indicated that children aged 0 to 14 years are moving from the obese to overweight and from the overweight to not overweight categories. These TRs show that the Colombian population is experiencing an SES-related nutritional transition that is affecting the lower SES population. The proposed model could be implemented to assess the nutritional transitions experienced in other LMICs.

[Age structure and genetic diversity of Homatula pycnolepis in the Nujiang River basin].

PubMed

Yue, Xing-Jian; Liu, Shao-Ping; Liu, Ming-Dian; Duan, Xin-Bin; Wang, Deng-Qiang; Chen, Da-Qing

2013-08-01

This study examined the age structure of the Loach, Homatula pycnolepis through the otolith growth rings in 204 individual specimens collected from the Xiaomengtong River of the Nujiang River (Salween River) basin in April, 2008. There were only two different age classes, 1 and 2 years of age-no 3 year olds were detected. The age structure of H. pycnolepis was simple. The complete mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b gene sequences (1140) of 80 individuals from 4 populations collected in the Nujiang River drainage were sequenced and a total of 44 variable sites were found among 4 different haplotypes. The global haplotype diversity (Hd) and nucleotide diversity (Pi) were calculated at 0.7595, 0.0151 respectively, and 0, 0 in each population, indicating a consistent lack of genetic diversity in each small population. There was obvious geographic structure in both the Nujiang River basin (NJB) group, and the Nanding River (NDR) group. The genetic distance between NJB and NDR was calculated at 0.0356, suggesting that genetic divergence resulted from long-term isolation of individual population. Such a simple age structure and a lack of genetic diversity in H. pycnolepis may potentially be due to small populations and locale fishing pressures. Accordingly, the results of this study prompt us to recommend that the NJB, NDR and Lancang River populations should be protected as three different evolutionary significant units or separated management units.

Preoutbreak dynamics of a recently established invasive herbivore: roles of natural enemies and habitat structure in stage-specific performance of gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) populations in northeastern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Rebecca Hoffman Gray; Craig G. Lorimer; Patrick C. Tobin; Kenneth F. Raffa

2008-01-01

A major challenge to addressing biological invasions is that the need for emergency responses often precludes opportunities to analyze the dynamics between initial establishment and population eruption. Thus, a broader understanding of underlying processes and management opportunities is often lacking. We examined the effects of habitat structure and natural enemies on...

The contribution of social behaviour to the transmission of influenza A in a human population.

PubMed

Kucharski, Adam J; Kwok, Kin O; Wei, Vivian W I; Cowling, Benjamin J; Read, Jonathan M; Lessler, Justin; Cummings, Derek A; Riley, Steven

2014-06-01

Variability in the risk of transmission for respiratory pathogens can result from several factors, including the intrinsic properties of the pathogen, the immune state of the host and the host's behaviour. It has been proposed that self-reported social mixing patterns can explain the behavioural component of this variability, with simulated intervention studies based on these data used routinely to inform public health policy. However, in the absence of robust studies with biological endpoints for individuals, it is unclear how age and social behaviour contribute to infection risk. To examine how the structure and nature of social contacts influenced infection risk over the course of a single epidemic, we designed a flexible disease modelling framework: the population was divided into a series of increasingly detailed age and social contact classes, with the transmissibility of each age-contact class determined by the average contacts of that class. Fitting the models to serologically confirmed infection data from the 2009 Hong Kong influenza A/H1N1p pandemic, we found that an individual's risk of infection was influenced strongly by the average reported social mixing behaviour of their age group, rather than by their personal reported contacts. We also identified the resolution of social mixing that shaped transmission: epidemic dynamics were driven by intense contacts between children, a post-childhood drop in risky contacts and a subsequent rise in contacts for individuals aged 35-50. Our results demonstrate that self-reported social contact surveys can account for age-associated heterogeneity in the transmission of a respiratory pathogen in humans, and show robustly how these individual-level behaviours manifest themselves through assortative age groups. Our results suggest it is possible to profile the social structure of different populations and to use these aggregated data to predict their inherent transmission potential.

Phylodynamics with Migration: A Computational Framework to Quantify Population Structure from Genomic Data.

PubMed

Kühnert, Denise; Stadler, Tanja; Vaughan, Timothy G; Drummond, Alexei J

2016-08-01

When viruses spread, outbreaks can be spawned in previously unaffected regions. Depending on the time and mode of introduction, each regional outbreak can have its own epidemic dynamics. The migration and phylodynamic processes are often intertwined and need to be taken into account when analyzing temporally and spatially structured virus data. In this article, we present a fully probabilistic approach for the joint reconstruction of phylodynamic history in structured populations (such as geographic structure) based on a multitype birth-death process. This approach can be used to quantify the spread of a pathogen in a structured population. Changes in epidemic dynamics through time within subpopulations are incorporated through piecewise constant changes in transmission parameters.We analyze a global human influenza H3N2 virus data set from a geographically structured host population to demonstrate how seasonal dynamics can be inferred simultaneously with the phylogeny and migration process. Our results suggest that the main migration path among the northern, tropical, and southern region represented in the sample analyzed here is the one leading from the tropics to the northern region. Furthermore, the time-dependent transmission dynamics between and within two HIV risk groups, heterosexuals and injecting drug users, in the Latvian HIV epidemic are investigated. Our analyses confirm that the Latvian HIV epidemic peaking around 2001 was mainly driven by the injecting drug user risk group. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Exploring tropical forest vegetation dynamics using the FATES model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, C. D.; Fisher, R.; Knox, R. G.; Chambers, J.; Kueppers, L. M.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Davies, S. J.; Dietze, M.; Holm, J.; Massoud, E. C.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Powell, T.; Serbin, S.; Shuman, J. K.; Walker, A. P.; Wright, S. J.; Xu, C.

2017-12-01

Tropical forest vegetation dynamics represent a critical climate feedback in the Earth system, which is poorly represented in current global modeling approaches. We discuss recent progress on exploring these dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a demographic vegetation model for the CESM and ACME ESMs. We will discuss benchmarks of FATES predictions for forest structure against inventory sites, sensitivity of FATES predictions of size and age structure to model parameter uncertainty, and experiments using the FATES model to explore PFT competitive dynamics and the dynamics of size and age distributions in responses to changing climate and CO2.

The age structure of selected countries in the ESCAP region.

PubMed

Hong, S

1982-01-01

The study objective was to examine the age structure of selected countries in the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) region, using available data and frequently applied indices such as the population pyramid, aged-child ratio, and median age. Based on the overall picture of the age structure thus obtained, age trends and their implication for the near future were arrived at. Countries are grouped into 4 types based on the fertility and mortality levels. Except for Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, the age structure in the 18 ESCAP region countries changed comparatively little over the 1950-80 period. The largest structural change occurred in Singapore, where the proportion of children under age 15 in the population declined significantly from 41-27%, while that of persons 65 years and older more than doubled. This was due primarily to the marked decline in fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 6.7-1.8 during the period. Hong Kong also had a similar major transformation during the same period: the proportion of the old age population increased 2 1/2 times, from 2.5-6.3%. The age structures of the 18 ESCAP countries varied greatly by country. 10 countries of the 2 high fertility and mortality types showed a similar young age structural pattern, i.e., they have higher dependency ratios, a higher proportion of children under 15 years, a lower proportion of population 65 years and older, lower aged-child ratios, and younger median ages than the average countries in the less developed regions of the world. With minimal changes over the 1950-80 period, the gap between these countries and the average of the less developed regions widened. Unlike these 10 (mostly South Asian) countries, moderately low fertility and mortality countries (China, Korea, and Sri Lanka) are located between the world average and the less developed region in most of the indices, particularly during the last decade. Although their rate of population aging is not rapid, they are moving toward it. 5 countries of the low fertility and mortality group basically showed an age structure in between the world average and that of the more developed region. Notable exceptions were Singapore and Hong Kong, which showed younger age structures than the less developed regions in terms of dependency ratios during 1950-60. On an average, the majority of ESCAP countries still have a young population.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of pneumonia in bighorn sheep.

PubMed

Cassirer, E Frances; Plowright, Raina K; Manlove, Kezia R; Cross, Paul C; Dobson, Andrew P; Potter, Kathleen A; Hudson, Peter J

2013-05-01

1. Bighorn sheep mortality related to pneumonia is a primary factor limiting population recovery across western North America, but management has been constrained by an incomplete understanding of the disease. We analysed patterns of pneumonia-caused mortality over 14 years in 16 interconnected bighorn sheep populations to gain insights into underlying disease processes. 2. We observed four age-structured classes of annual pneumonia mortality patterns: all-age, lamb-only, secondary all-age and adult-only. Although there was considerable variability within classes, overall they differed in persistence within and impact on populations. Years with pneumonia-induced mortality occurring simultaneously across age classes (i.e. all-age) appeared to be a consequence of pathogen invasion into a naïve population and resulted in immediate population declines. Subsequently, low recruitment due to frequent high mortality outbreaks in lambs, probably due to association with chronically infected ewes, posed a significant obstacle to population recovery. Secondary all-age events occurred in previously exposed populations when outbreaks in lambs were followed by lower rates of pneumonia-induced mortality in adults. Infrequent pneumonia events restricted to adults were usually of short duration with low mortality. 3. Acute pneumonia-induced mortality in adults was concentrated in fall and early winter around the breeding season when rams are more mobile and the sexes commingle. In contrast, mortality restricted to lambs peaked in summer when ewes and lambs were concentrated in nursery groups. 4. We detected weak synchrony in adult pneumonia between adjacent populations, but found no evidence for landscape-scale extrinsic variables as drivers of disease. 5. We demonstrate that there was a >60% probability of a disease event each year following pneumonia invasion into bighorn sheep populations. Healthy years also occurred periodically, and understanding the factors driving these apparent fade-out events may be the key to managing this disease. Our data and modelling indicate that pneumonia can have greater impacts on bighorn sheep populations than previously reported, and we present hypotheses about processes involved for testing in future investigations and management. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Comparative Demography of an At-Risk African Elephant Population

PubMed Central

Wittemyer, George; Daballen, David; Douglas-Hamilton, Iain

2013-01-01

Knowledge of population processes across various ecological and management settings offers important insights for species conservation and life history. In regard to its ecological role, charisma and threats from human impacts, African elephants are of high conservation concern and, as a result, are the focus of numerous studies across various contexts. Here, demographic data from an individually based study of 934 African elephants in Samburu, Kenya were summarized, providing detailed inspection of the population processes experienced by the population over a fourteen year period (including the repercussions of recent increases in illegal killing). These data were compared with those from populations inhabiting a spectrum of xeric to mesic ecosystems with variable human impacts. In relation to variability in climate and human impacts (causing up to 50% of recorded deaths among adults), annual mortality in Samburu fluctuated between 1 and 14% and, unrelatedly, natality between 2 and 14% driving annual population increases and decreases. Survivorship in Samburu was significantly lower than other populations with age-specific data even during periods of low illegal killing by humans, resulting in relatively low life expectancy of males (18.9 years) and females (21.8 years). Fecundity (primiparous age and inter-calf interval) were similar to those reported in other human impacted or recovering populations, and significantly greater than that of comparable stable populations. This suggests reproductive effort of African savanna elephants increases in relation to increased mortality (and resulting ecological ramifications) as predicted by life history theory. Further comparison across populations indicated that elongated inter-calf intervals and older ages of reproductive onset were related to age structure and density, and likely influenced by ecological conditions. This study provides detailed empirical data on elephant population dynamics strongly influenced by human impacts (laying the foundation for modeling approaches), supporting predictions of evolutionary theory regarding demographic responses to ecological processes. PMID:23341984

Comparative demography of an at-risk African elephant population.

PubMed

Wittemyer, George; Daballen, David; Douglas-Hamilton, Iain

2013-01-01

Knowledge of population processes across various ecological and management settings offers important insights for species conservation and life history. In regard to its ecological role, charisma and threats from human impacts, African elephants are of high conservation concern and, as a result, are the focus of numerous studies across various contexts. Here, demographic data from an individually based study of 934 African elephants in Samburu, Kenya were summarized, providing detailed inspection of the population processes experienced by the population over a fourteen year period (including the repercussions of recent increases in illegal killing). These data were compared with those from populations inhabiting a spectrum of xeric to mesic ecosystems with variable human impacts. In relation to variability in climate and human impacts (causing up to 50% of recorded deaths among adults), annual mortality in Samburu fluctuated between 1 and 14% and, unrelatedly, natality between 2 and 14% driving annual population increases and decreases. Survivorship in Samburu was significantly lower than other populations with age-specific data even during periods of low illegal killing by humans, resulting in relatively low life expectancy of males (18.9 years) and females (21.8 years). Fecundity (primiparous age and inter-calf interval) were similar to those reported in other human impacted or recovering populations, and significantly greater than that of comparable stable populations. This suggests reproductive effort of African savanna elephants increases in relation to increased mortality (and resulting ecological ramifications) as predicted by life history theory. Further comparison across populations indicated that elongated inter-calf intervals and older ages of reproductive onset were related to age structure and density, and likely influenced by ecological conditions. This study provides detailed empirical data on elephant population dynamics strongly influenced by human impacts (laying the foundation for modeling approaches), supporting predictions of evolutionary theory regarding demographic responses to ecological processes.

Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data.

PubMed

Prem, Kiesha; Cook, Alex R; Jit, Mark

2017-09-01

Heterogeneities in contact networks have a major effect in determining whether a pathogen can become epidemic or persist at endemic levels. Epidemic models that determine which interventions can successfully prevent an outbreak need to account for social structure and mixing patterns. Contact patterns vary across age and locations (e.g. home, work, and school), and including them as predictors in transmission dynamic models of pathogens that spread socially will improve the models' realism. Data from population-based contact diaries in eight European countries from the POLYMOD study were projected to 144 other countries using a Bayesian hierarchical model that estimated the proclivity of age-and-location-specific contact patterns for the countries, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Household level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for nine lower-income countries and socio-demographic factors from several on-line databases for 152 countries were used to quantify similarity of countries to estimate contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations for countries for which no contact data are available, accounting for demographic structure, household structure where known, and a variety of metrics including workforce participation and school enrolment. Contacts are highly assortative with age across all countries considered, but pronounced regional differences in the age-specific contacts at home were noticeable, with more inter-generational contacts in Asian countries than in other settings. Moreover, there were variations in contact patterns by location, with work-place contacts being least assortative. These variations led to differences in the effect of social distancing measures in an age structured epidemic model. Contacts have an important role in transmission dynamic models that use contact rates to characterize the spread of contact-transmissible diseases. This study provides estimates of mixing patterns for societies for which contact data such as POLYMOD are not yet available.

GENETICS AND POPULATION-LEVEL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Genetic variation defines population structure and provides the mechanism for populations to adapt to novel stressors. Despite its fundamental importance in understanding populations, genetic information has been included rarely in models of population dynamics (endangered speci...

Demographic analysis from summaries of an age-structured population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hatfield, Jeff S.

2003-01-01

Demographic analyses of age-structured populations typically rely on life history data for individuals, or when individual animals are not identified, on information about the numbers of individuals in each age class through time. While it is usually difficult to determine the age class of a randomly encountered individual, it is often the case that the individual can be readily and reliably assigned to one of a set of age classes. For example, it is often possible to distinguish first-year from older birds. In such cases, the population age structure can be regarded as a latent variable governed by a process prior, and the data as summaries of this latent structure. In this article, we consider the problem of uncovering the latent structure and estimating process parameters from summaries of age class information. We present a demographic analysis for the critically endangered migratory population of whooping cranes (Grus americana), based only on counts of first-year birds and of older birds. We estimate age and year-specific survival rates. We address the controversial issue of whether management action on the breeding grounds has influenced recruitment, relating recruitment rates to the number of seventh-year and older birds, and examining the pattern of variation through time in this rate.

Spatial Self-Organization of Vegetation Subject to Climatic Stress-Insights from a System Dynamics-Individual-Based Hybrid Model.

PubMed

Vincenot, Christian E; Carteni, Fabrizio; Mazzoleni, Stefano; Rietkerk, Max; Giannino, Francesco

2016-01-01

In simulation models of populations or communities, individual plants have often been obfuscated in favor of aggregated vegetation. This simplification comes with a loss of biological detail and a smoothing out of the demographic noise engendered by stochastic individual-scale processes and heterogeneities, which is significant among others when studying the viability of small populations facing challenging fluctuating environmental conditions. This consideration has motivated the development of precise plant-centered models. The accuracy gained in the representation of plant biology has then, however, often been balanced by the disappearance in models of important plant-soil interactions (esp. water dynamics) due to the inability of most individual-based frameworks to simulate complex continuous processes. In this study, we used a hybrid modeling approach, namely integrated System Dynamics (SD)-Individual-based (IB), to illustrate the importance of individual plant dynamics to explain spatial self-organization of vegetation in arid environments. We analyzed the behavior of this model under different parameter sets either related to individual plant properties (such as seed dispersal distance and reproductive age) or the environment (such as intensity and yearly distribution of precipitation events). While the results of this work confirmed the prevailing theory on vegetation patterning, they also revealed the importance therein of plant-level processes that cannot be rendered by reaction-diffusion models. Initial spatial distribution of plants, reproductive age, and average seed dispersal distance, by impacting patch size and vegetation aggregation, affected pattern formation and population survival under climatic variations. Besides, changes in precipitation regime altered the demographic structure and spatial organization of vegetation patches by affecting plants differentially depending on their age and biomass. Water availability influenced non-linearly total biomass density. Remarkably, lower precipitation resulted in lower mean plant age yet higher mean individual biomass. Moreover, seasonal variations in rainfall greater than a threshold (here, ±0.45 mm from the 1.3 mm baseline) decreased mean total biomass and generated limit cycles, which, in the case of large variations, were preceded by chaotic demographic and spatial behavior. In some cases, peculiar spatial patterns (e.g., rings) were also engendered. On a technical note, the shortcomings of the present model and the benefit of hybrid modeling for virtual investigations in plant science are discussed.

[Future status of ischaemic heart disease in the state of San Luis Potosí: A predictive dynamic model].

PubMed

Gaytán-Hernández, Darío; Díaz-Oviedo, Aracely; Gallegos-García, Verónica; Terán-Figueroa, Yolanda

To develop a predictive dynamic model to generate and analyse the future status of the incidence rate of ischaemic heart disease in a population of 25 years and over in Mexico, according to the variation in time of some risk factors. Retrospective ecological study performed during the period 2013-2015, in San Luis Potosí City, Mexico. Secondary databases that corresponded to the years 2000, 2005, and 2010, were used along with official indicators of the 58 municipalities of the state of San Luis Potosí. Eight indicators were analysed at municipality level, using principal components analysis, structural equation modelling, dynamic modelling, and simulation software methods. Three components were extracted, which together explained 80.43% of the total variance of the official indicators used. The second component had a weight of 16.36 units that favoured an increase of the disease analysed. This component was integrated only by the indicator AGE 60-64 and the expected stage of it increasing. The structural model confirmed that the indicators explain 42% of the variation of this disease. The possible stages for the years 2015, 2020, and 2025 are 195.7, 240.7, and 298.0, respectively for every 100,000 inhabitants aged 25 and over. An exponential increase in the incidence rate of ischaemic heart disease is expected, with the age of 60-64 years being identified as the highest risk factor. Copyright © 2017 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Disease-emergence dynamics and control in a socially-structured wildlife species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pepin, Kim M.; Vercauteren, Kurt C.

2016-04-01

Once a pathogen is introduced in a population, key factors governing rate of spread include contact structure, supply of susceptible individuals and pathogen life-history. We examined the interplay of these factors on emergence dynamics and efficacy of disease prevention and response. We contrasted transmission dynamics of livestock viruses with different life-histories in hypothetical populations of feral swine with different contact structures (homogenous, metapopulation, spatial and network). Persistence probability was near 0 for the FMDV-like case under a wide range of parameter values and contact structures, while persistence was probable for the CSFV-like case. There were no sets of conditions where the FMDV-like pathogen persisted in every stochastic simulation. Even when population growth rates were up to 300% annually, the FMDV-like pathogen persisted in <25% of simulations regardless of transmission probabilities and contact structure. For networks and spatial contact structure, persistence probability of the FMDV-like pathogen was always <10%. Because of its low persistence probability, even very early response to the FMDV-like pathogen in feral swine was unwarranted while response to the CSFV-like pathogen was generally effective. When pre-emergence culling of feral swine caused population declines, it was effective at decreasing outbreak size of both diseases by ≥80%.

Larval dispersal underlies demographically important inter-system connectivity in a Great Lakes yellow perch (Perca flavescens) population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brodnik, Reed M.; Fraker, Michael E.; Anderson, Eric J.; Carreon-Martinez, Lucia; DeVanna, Kristen M.; Heath, Dan D.; Reichert, Julie M.; Roseman, Edward F.; Ludsin, Stuart A.

2016-01-01

Ability to quantify connectivity among spawning subpopulations and their relative contribution of recruits to the broader population is a critical fisheries management need. By combining microsatellite and age information from larval yellow perch (Perca flavescens) collected in the Lake St. Clair – Detroit River system (SC-DRS) and western Lake Erie with a hydrodynamic backtracking approach, we quantified subpopulation structure, connectivity, and contributions of recruits to the juvenile stage in western Lake Erie during 2006-2007. After finding weak (yet stable) genetic structure between the SC-DRS and two western Lake Erie subpopulations, microsatellites also revealed measurable recruitment of SC-DRS larvae to the juvenile stage in western Lake Erie (17-21% during 2006-2007). Consideration of pre-collection larval dispersal trajectories, using hydrodynamic backtracking, increased estimated contributions to 65% in 2006 and 57% in 2007. Our findings highlight the value of complementing subpopulation discrimination methods with hydrodynamic predictions of larval dispersal by revealing the SC-DRS as a source of recruits to western Lake Erie and also showing that connectivity through larval dispersal can affect the structure and dynamics of large-lake fish populations.

Fixation Times in Deme Structured, Finite Populations with Rare Migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauert, Christoph; Chen, Yu-Ting; Imhof, Lorens A.

2014-08-01

Population structure affects both the outcome and the speed of evolutionary dynamics. Here we consider a finite population that is divided into subpopulations called demes. The dynamics within the demes are stochastic and frequency-dependent. Individuals can adopt one of two strategic types, or . The fitness of each individual is determined by interactions with other individuals in the same deme. With small probability, proportional to fitness, individuals migrate to other demes. The outcome of these dynamics has been studied earlier by analyzing the fixation probability of a single mutant in an otherwise homogeneous population. These results give only a partial picture of the dynamics, because the time when fixation occurs can be exceedingly large. In this paper, we study the impact of deme structures on the speed of evolution. We derive analytical approximations of fixation times in the limit of rare migration and rare mutation. In this limit, the conditional fixation time of a single mutant in a population is the same as that of a single in an population. For the prisoner's dilemma game, simulation results fit very well with our analytical predictions and demonstrate that fixation takes place in a moderate amount of time as compared to the expected waiting time until a mutant successfully invades and fixates. The simulations also confirm that the conditional fixation time of a single cooperator is indeed the same as that of a single defector.

Evidence for feedback and stellar-dynamically regulated bursty star cluster formation: the case of the Orion Nebula Cluster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroupa, Pavel; Jeřábková, Tereza; Dinnbier, František; Beccari, Giacomo; Yan, Zhiqiang

2018-04-01

A scenario for the formation of multiple co-eval populations separated in age by about 1 Myr in very young clusters (VYCs, ages less than 10 Myr) and with masses in the range 600-20 000 M⊙ is outlined. It rests upon a converging inflow of molecular gas building up a first population of pre-main sequence stars. The associated just-formed O stars ionise the inflow and suppress star formation in the embedded cluster. However, they typically eject each other out of the embedded cluster within 106 yr, that is before the molecular cloud filament can be ionised entirely. The inflow of molecular gas can then resume forming a second population. This sequence of events can be repeated maximally over the life-time of the molecular cloud (about 10 Myr), but is not likely to be possible in VYCs with mass <300 M⊙, because such populations are not likely to contain an O star. Stellar populations heavier than about 2000 M⊙ are likely to have too many O stars for all of these to eject each other from the embedded cluster before they disperse their natal cloud. VYCs with masses in the range 600-2000 M⊙ are likely to have such multi-age populations, while VYCs with masses in the range 2000-20 000 M⊙ can also be composed solely of co-eval, mono-age populations. More massive VYCs are not likely to host sub-populations with age differences of about 1 Myr. This model is applied to the Orion Nebula Cluster (ONC), in which three well-separated pre-main sequences in the colour-magnitude diagram of the cluster have recently been discovered. The mass-inflow history is constrained using this model and the number of OB stars ejected from each population are estimated for verification using Gaia data. As a further consequence of the proposed model, the three runaway O star systems, AE Aur, μ Col and ι Ori, are considered as significant observational evidence for stellar-dynamical ejections of massive stars from the oldest population in the ONC. Evidence for stellar-dynamical ejections of massive stars in the currently forming population is also discussed.

Temporal and spatial comparisons of the reproductive biology of northern Gulf of Mexico (USA) red snapper (Lutjanus campechanus) collected a decade apart

PubMed Central

Kulaw, Dannielle H.; Jackson, Melissa W.

2017-01-01

In studies done a decade apart, we provide evidence of a recent shift toward a slower progression to sexual maturity as well as reduced egg production, especially among young, small female red snapper, in the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf). Slower maturation rates (among fish ≤6 years old), lower GSI values and decreased spawning frequency were observed, and were especially pronounced in the northwestern Gulf. Furthermore, an Index of Reproductive Importance showed that young fish (ages 2–7) are contributing far less to the spawning stock in recent years, while older fish (>8 years) are contributing more, when compared to fish from the same age groups sampled in the previous decade. Coincident with these changes in reproductive output, fishing pressure has steadily declined gulf-wide, and spawning stock biomass and spawning potential ratio have increased. Thus, it is possible that the age structure of the red snapper stock is becoming less truncated, or that reproductive effort observed is due to the temporary influence of recent strong year classes produced in 2004 and 2006 as they begin to reach full reproductive potential. If the latter is true, careful documentation of the stock’s reproductive dynamics during a time of population growth provides new understanding at the meta-population spatial and decadal temporal scales. In contrast, if the former is true, a truncated age structure due to overharvest can limit the productivity of the Gulf red snapper stock. In addition, we have learned that red snapper females in the northwestern Gulf collected on natural reefs and banks have much higher reproductive output than those on artificial reefs in the form of standing and toppled oil and gas platforms, thus making the need to know the relative abundance of females found on these disparate habitats an important next step toward better-understanding factors impacting the reproductive dynamics of this species. PMID:28355239

Temporal and spatial comparisons of the reproductive biology of northern Gulf of Mexico (USA) red snapper (Lutjanus campechanus) collected a decade apart.

PubMed

Kulaw, Dannielle H; Cowan, James H; Jackson, Melissa W

2017-01-01

In studies done a decade apart, we provide evidence of a recent shift toward a slower progression to sexual maturity as well as reduced egg production, especially among young, small female red snapper, in the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf). Slower maturation rates (among fish ≤6 years old), lower GSI values and decreased spawning frequency were observed, and were especially pronounced in the northwestern Gulf. Furthermore, an Index of Reproductive Importance showed that young fish (ages 2-7) are contributing far less to the spawning stock in recent years, while older fish (>8 years) are contributing more, when compared to fish from the same age groups sampled in the previous decade. Coincident with these changes in reproductive output, fishing pressure has steadily declined gulf-wide, and spawning stock biomass and spawning potential ratio have increased. Thus, it is possible that the age structure of the red snapper stock is becoming less truncated, or that reproductive effort observed is due to the temporary influence of recent strong year classes produced in 2004 and 2006 as they begin to reach full reproductive potential. If the latter is true, careful documentation of the stock's reproductive dynamics during a time of population growth provides new understanding at the meta-population spatial and decadal temporal scales. In contrast, if the former is true, a truncated age structure due to overharvest can limit the productivity of the Gulf red snapper stock. In addition, we have learned that red snapper females in the northwestern Gulf collected on natural reefs and banks have much higher reproductive output than those on artificial reefs in the form of standing and toppled oil and gas platforms, thus making the need to know the relative abundance of females found on these disparate habitats an important next step toward better-understanding factors impacting the reproductive dynamics of this species.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu Qin, E-mail: zhuqin@fudan.edu.cn; Peng Xizhe, E-mail: xzpeng@fudan.edu.cn

This study examines the impacts of population size, population structure, and consumption level on carbon emissions in China from 1978 to 2008. To this end, we expanded the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model and used the ridge regression method, which overcomes the negative influences of multicollinearity among independent variables under acceptable bias. Results reveal that changes in consumption level and population structure were the major impact factors, not changes in population size. Consumption level and carbon emissions were highly correlated. In terms of population structure, urbanization, population age, and household size had distinct effects onmore » carbon emissions. Urbanization increased carbon emissions, while the effect of age acted primarily through the expansion of the labor force and consequent overall economic growth. Shrinking household size increased residential consumption, resulting in higher carbon emissions. Households, rather than individuals, are a more reasonable explanation for the demographic impact on carbon emissions. Potential social policies for low carbon development are also discussed. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We examine the impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We expand the STIRPAT model by containing population structure factors in the model. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure includes age structure, urbanization level, and household size. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The ridge regression method is used to estimate the model with multicollinearity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure plays a more important role compared with the population size.« less

Estimating the impact of Trypanosoma evansi infection (surra) on buffalo population dynamics in southern Philippines using data from cross-sectional surveys.

PubMed

Dargantes, A P; Mercado, R T; Dobson, R J; Reid, S A

2009-08-01

Despite the widespread problem with surra (Trypanosoma evansi) in livestock, there are no published studies on its impact on host populations, probably because of the large financial and time cost involved in performing longitudinal studies. During 2002-6, a cross-sectional survey for T. evansi infection involving 1732 buffaloes from 71 villages in southern Philippines was carried out. Other livestock animals (horses, cattle and goats) in every surveyed village were also tested for infection with T. evansi but domestic buffaloes were the primary survey target. Seroprevalence ranged from 6% to 21% and 13% to 100% for buffaloes in low and high risk areas, respectively. Key demographic parameters were estimated from the age structured distributions of the sampled buffalo population for each sex. All areas were dominated by females (69%) and the annual calving rate for areas of 100% and low seroprevalence was 15% and 47%, respectively. Males were removed at a relatively high annual rate of 27% in all areas. In the main reproductive years (4-10) female removal/mortality was <1% and 10% for low and high risk areas, respectively. Older females were removed/died at a rate similar to males regardless of area. In high risk areas there were consistently more 2-year than 1-year old females and the reverse was true for the low risk areas. This implies that females were imported to the high risk areas for breeding. By assuming a stable age structure and similar size populations in each area, it was estimated that 28% of female calves need to be moved from low to high risk areas to maintain the observed age structure. In high risk areas, surra imposes significant financial losses due to reduced fertility, high mortality/removal rate and the necessity to import replacement buffaloes.

Connection between Dynamically Derived Initial Mass Function Normalization and Stellar Population Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Alatalo, Katherine; Bayet, Estelle; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison F.; Davies, Roger L.; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Scott, Nicholas; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M.

2014-09-01

We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization αdyn ≡ (M/L)stars/(M/L)Salp and absorption line strengths, and interpret these via single stellar population-equivalent ages, abundance ratios (measured as [α/Fe]), and total metallicity, [Z/H]. We find that old and alpha-enhanced galaxies tend to have on average heavier (Salpeter-like) mass normalization of the IMF, but stellar population does not appear to be a good predictor of the IMF, with a large range of αdyn at a given population parameter. As a result, we find weak αdyn-[α/Fe] and αdyn -Age correlations and no significant αdyn -[Z/H] correlation. The observed trends appear significantly weaker than those reported in studies that measure the IMF normalization via the low-mass star demographics inferred through stellar spectral analysis.

Investigating the Genetic Diversity, Population Differentiation and Population Dynamics of Cycas segmentifida (Cycadaceae) Endemic to Southwest China by Multiple Molecular Markers

PubMed Central

Feng, Xiuyan; Liu, Jian; Chiang, Yu-Chung; Gong, Xun

2017-01-01

Climate change, species dispersal ability and habitat fragmentation are major factors influencing species distribution and genetic diversity, especially for the range-restricted and threatened taxa. Here, using four sequences of chloroplast DNAs (cpDNAs), three nuclear genes (nDNAs) and 12 nuclear microsatellites (SSRs), we investigated the genetic diversity, genetic structure, divergence time and population dynamics of Cycas segmentifida D. Y. Wang and C. Y. Deng, a threatened cycad species endemic to Southwest China. High levels of genetic diversity and genetic differentiation were revealed in C. segmentifida. Haplotypes of networks showed two evolutionary units in C. segmentifida, with the exception of the nuclear gene GTP network. Meanwhile, the UPGMA tree, structure and PCoA analyses suggested that 14 populations of C. segmentifida were divided into two clades. There was significant effect of isolation by distance (IBD) in this species. However, this species did not display a significant phylogeographic structure. The divergence time estimation suggested that its haplotypes diverged during the Middle Pleistocene. Additionally, the population dynamics inferred from different DNA sequences analyses were discordant. Bottleneck analysis showed that populations of C. segmentifida did not experience any recent bottleneck effect, but rather pointed to a contraction of its effective population size over time. Furthermore, our results suggested that the population BM which held an intact population structure and occupied undisturbed habitat was at the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, implying that this population is a free-mating system. These genetic features provide important information for the sustainable management of C. segmentifida. PMID:28580005

Lake whitefish and Diporeia spp. in the Great lakes: an overview

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nalepa, Thomas F.; Mohr, Lloyd C.; Henderson, Bryan A.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Schneeberger, Philip J.

2005-01-01

Because of growing concern in the Great Lakes over declines in abundance and growth of lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) and declines in abundance of the benthic amphipod Diporeia spp., a workshop was held to examine past and current trends, to explore trophic links, and to discuss the latest research results and needs. The workshop was divided into sessions on the status of populations in each of the lakes, bioenergetics and trophic dynamics, and exploitation and management. Abundance, growth, and condition of whitefish populations in Lakes Superior and Erie are stable and within the range of historical means, but these variables are declining in Lakes Michigan and Ontario and parts of Lake Huron. The loss of Diporeia spp., a major food item of whitefish, has been a factor in observed declines, particularly in Lake Ontario, but density-dependent factors also likely played a role in Lakes Michigan and Huron. The loss of Diporeia spp. is temporally linked to the introduction and proliferation of dreissenid mussels, but a direct cause for the negative response of Diporeia spp. has not been established. Given changes in whitefish populations, age-structured models need to be re-evaluated. Other whitefish research needs to include a better understanding of what environmental conditions lead to strong year-classes, improved aging techniques, and better information on individual population (stock) structure. Further collaborations between assessment biologists and researchers studying the lower food web would enhance an understanding of links between trophic levels.

Selective Predation of a Stalking Predator on Ungulate Prey

PubMed Central

Heurich, Marco; Zeis, Klara; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Müller, Jörg; Belotti, Elisa; Bufka, Luděk; Woelfing, Benno

2016-01-01

Prey selection is a key factor shaping animal populations and evolutionary dynamics. An optimal forager should target prey that offers the highest benefits in terms of energy content at the lowest costs. Predators are therefore expected to select for prey of optimal size. Stalking predators do not pursue their prey long, which may lead to a more random choice of prey individuals. Due to difficulties in assessing the composition of available prey populations, data on prey selection of stalking carnivores are still scarce. We show how the stalking predator Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) selects prey individuals based on species identity, age, sex and individual behaviour. To address the difficulties in assessing prey population structure, we confirm inferred selection patterns by using two independent data sets: (1) data of 387 documented kills of radio-collared lynx were compared to the prey population structure retrieved from systematic camera trapping using Manly’s standardized selection ratio alpha and (2) data on 120 radio-collared roe deer were analysed using a Cox proportional hazards model. Among the larger red deer prey, lynx selected against adult males—the largest and potentially most dangerous prey individuals. In roe deer lynx preyed selectively on males and did not select for a specific age class. Activity during high risk periods reduced the risk of falling victim to a lynx attack. Our results suggest that the stalking predator lynx actively selects for size, while prey behaviour induces selection by encounter and stalking success rates. PMID:27548478

Spatiotemporal dynamics of Puumala hantavirus associated with its rodent host, Myodes glareolus

PubMed Central

Weber de Melo, Vanessa; Sheikh Ali, Hanan; Freise, Jona; Kühnert, Denise; Essbauer, Sandra; Mertens, Marc; Wanka, Konrad M; Drewes, Stephan; Ulrich, Rainer G; Heckel, Gerald

2015-01-01

Many viruses significantly impact human and animal health. Understanding the population dynamics of these viruses and their hosts can provide important insights for epidemiology and virus evolution. Puumala virus (PUUV) is a European hantavirus that may cause regional outbreaks of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in humans. Here, we analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of PUUV circulating in local populations of its rodent reservoir host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus) during eight years. Phylogenetic and population genetic analyses of all three genome segments of PUUV showed strong geographical structuring at a very local scale. There was a high temporal turnover of virus strains in the local bank vole populations, but several virus strains persisted through multiple years. Phylodynamic analyses showed no significant changes in the local effective population sizes of PUUV, although vole numbers and virus prevalence fluctuated widely. Microsatellite data demonstrated also a temporally persisting subdivision between local vole populations, but these groups did not correspond to the subdivision in the virus strains. We conclude that restricted transmission between vole populations and genetic drift play important roles in shaping the genetic structure and temporal dynamics of PUUV in its natural host which has several implications for zoonotic risks of the human population. PMID:26136821

Heterogeneous Structure of Stem Cells Dynamics: Statistical Models and Quantitative Predictions

PubMed Central

Bogdan, Paul; Deasy, Bridget M.; Gharaibeh, Burhan; Roehrs, Timo; Marculescu, Radu

2014-01-01

Understanding stem cell (SC) population dynamics is essential for developing models that can be used in basic science and medicine, to aid in predicting cells fate. These models can be used as tools e.g. in studying patho-physiological events at the cellular and tissue level, predicting (mal)functions along the developmental course, and personalized regenerative medicine. Using time-lapsed imaging and statistical tools, we show that the dynamics of SC populations involve a heterogeneous structure consisting of multiple sub-population behaviors. Using non-Gaussian statistical approaches, we identify the co-existence of fast and slow dividing subpopulations, and quiescent cells, in stem cells from three species. The mathematical analysis also shows that, instead of developing independently, SCs exhibit a time-dependent fractal behavior as they interact with each other through molecular and tactile signals. These findings suggest that more sophisticated models of SC dynamics should view SC populations as a collective and avoid the simplifying homogeneity assumption by accounting for the presence of more than one dividing sub-population, and their multi-fractal characteristics. PMID:24769917

Modeling the population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culcidae), along an elevational gradient in Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahumada, Jorge A.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

2004-01-01

We present a population model to understand the effects of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, along an elevational gradient in Hawaii. We use a novel approach to model the effects of temperature on population growth by dynamically incorporating developmental rate into the transition matrix, by using physiological ages of immatures instead of chronological age or stages. We also model the effects of rainfall on survival of immatures as the cumulative number of days below a certain rain threshold. Finally, we incorporate density dependence into the model as competition between immatures within breeding sites. Our model predicts the upper altitudinal distributions of Cx. quinquefasciatus on the Big Island of Hawaii for self-sustaining mosquito and migrating summer sink populations at 1,475 and 1,715 m above sea level, respectively. Our model predicts that mosquitoes at lower elevations can grow under a broader range of rainfall parameters than middle and high elevation populations. Density dependence in conjunction with the seasonal forcing imposed by temperature and rain creates cycles in the dynamics of the population that peak in the summer and early fall. The model provides a reasonable fit to the available data on mosquito abundance for the east side of Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The predictions of our model indicate the importance of abiotic conditions on mosquito dynamics and have important implications for the management of diseases transmitted by Cx. quinquefasciatus in Hawaii and elsewhere.

Age-structured gametocyte allocation links immunity to epidemiology in malaria parasites.

PubMed

Paul, Richard E; Bonnet, Sarah; Boudin, Christian; Tchuinkam, Timoleon; Robert, Vincent

2007-09-12

Despite a long history of attempts to model malaria epidemiology, the over-riding conclusion is that a detailed understanding of host-parasite interactions leading to immunity is required. It is still not known what governs the duration of an infection and how within-human parasite dynamics relate to malaria epidemiology. Immunity to Plasmodium falciparum develops slowly and requires repeated exposure to the parasite, which thus generates age-structure in the host-parasite interaction. An age-structured degree of immunity would present the parasite with humans of highly variable quality. Evolutionary theory suggests that natural selection will mould adaptive phenotypes that are more precise (less variant) in "high quality" habitats, where lifetime reproductive success is best. Variability in malaria parasite gametocyte density is predicted to be less variable in those age groups who best infect mosquitoes. Thus, the extent to which variation in gametocyte density is a simple parasite phenotype reflecting the complex within-host parasite dynamics is addressed. Gametocyte densities and corresponding infectiousness to mosquitoes from published data sets and studies in both rural and urban Cameroon are analysed. The mean and variation in gametocyte density according to age group are considered and compared with transmission success (proportion of mosquitoes infected). Across a wide range of settings endemic for malaria, the age group that infected most mosquitoes had the least variation in gametocyte density, i.e. there was a significant relationship between the variance rather than the mean gametocyte density and age-specific parasite transmission success. In these settings, the acquisition of immunity over time was evident as a decrease in asexual parasite densities with age. By contrast, in an urban setting, there were no such age-structured relationships either with variation in gametocyte density or asexual parasite density. Gametocyte production is seemingly predicted by evolutionary theory, insofar as a reproductive phenotype (gametocyte density) is most precisely expressed (i.e. is most invariant) in the most infectious human age group. This human age group would thus be expected to be the habitat most suitable for the parasite. Comprehension of the immuno-epidemiology of malaria, a requisite for any vaccine strategies, remains poor. Immunological characterization of the human population stratified by parasite gametocyte allocation would be a step forward in identifying the salient immunological pathways of what makes a human a good habitat.

Determinants of genetic structure in a nonequilibrium metapopulation of the plant Silene latifolia.

PubMed

Fields, Peter D; Taylor, Douglas R

2014-01-01

Population genetic differentiation will be influenced by the demographic history of populations, opportunities for migration among neighboring demes and founder effects associated with repeated extinction and recolonization. In natural populations, these factors are expected to interact with each other and their magnitudes will vary depending on the spatial distribution and age structure of local demes. Although each of these effects has been individually identified as important in structuring genetic variance, their relative magnitude is seldom estimated in nature. We conducted a population genetic analysis in a metapopulation of the angiosperm, Silene latifolia, from which we had more than 20 years of data on the spatial distribution, demographic history, and extinction and colonization of demes. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to disentangle which features of the populations contributed to among population variation in allele frequencies, including the magnitude and direction of their effects. We show that population age, long-term size and degree of connectivity all combine to affect the distribution of genetic variance; small, recently-founded, isolated populations contributed most to increase FST in the metapopulation. However, the effects of population size and population age are best understood as being modulated through the effects of connectivity to other extant populations, i.e. FST diminishes as populations age, but at a rate that depends how isolated the population is. These spatial and temporal correlates of population structure give insight into how migration, founder effect and within-deme genetic drift have combined to enhance and restrict genetic divergence in a natural metapopulation.

The σ law of evolutionary dynamics in community-structured population.

PubMed

Tang, Changbing; Li, Xiang; Cao, Lang; Zhan, Jingyuan

2012-08-07

Evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations provide a new framework to understand the selection of traits with frequency-dependent fitness. Recently, a simple but fundamental law of evolutionary dynamics, which we call σ law, describes how to determine the selection between two competing strategies: in most evolutionary processes with two strategies, A and B, strategy A is favored over B in weak selection if and only if σR+S>T+σP. This relationship holds for a wide variety of structured populations with mutation rate and weak selection under certain assumptions. In this paper, we propose a model of games based on a community-structured population and revisit this law under the Moran process. By calculating the average payoffs of A and B individuals with the method of effective sojourn time, we find that σ features not only the structured population characteristics, but also the reaction rate between individuals. That is to say, an interaction between two individuals are not uniform, and we can take σ as a reaction rate between any two individuals with the same strategy. We verify this viewpoint by the modified replicator equation with non-uniform interaction rates in a simplified version of the prisoner's dilemma game (PDG). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do Cutthroat Trout Go With the Flow? Hydrologic Determinants of Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii) Abundance in the Western Cascades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owens, H.; Skaugset, A. E.

2012-12-01

Resident Coastal Cutthroat trout are ubiquitous in headwater streams across western Oregon. The federal Endangered Species Act lists coastal cutthroat trout as a species of concern and lists habitat modification due to forest management as a cause of population decline. Protection of cutthroat trout is a concern to natural resource managers, yet the dynamics of cutthroat trout populations are complex and poorly understood. Thus, identifying the factors that drive the dynamics of cutthroat trout populations is important to the management of forested headwater watersheds. This poster describes an interdisciplinary study to identify hydrologic determinants of annual abundance, age structure, and growth in resident Cutthroat trout in headwater streams of the western Cascades of southern Oregon. Discharge is a primary variable of interest because it affects habitat volume, stream velocity, channel hydraulics, water quality, channel geomorphology, bed-load stability, and resource availability. Discharge is also affected by forest management activities, specifically timber harvest. The objective of this project is to identify and quantify the influence streamflow has on the abundance of resident cutthroat trout in western Oregon. The study was a part of the Hinkle Creek Paired Watershed Study and took place in the foothills of the Cascade Mountains in the Umpqua River basin from 2004-2011. Streamflow and fish populations were measured in the streams of a 3rd order, 1,950 hectare watershed. The study design was a nested paired watershed study that allowed the investigation to occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. The study watersheds supported harvest-regenerated stands of Douglas-fir (pseudotsuga menziesii) and are part of a larger study to investigate the environmental impacts of contemporary forest practices on fish-bearing headwater streams. Fish populations and channel habitat characteristics were measured throughout the stream network annually. Discharge was measured at eight gaging stations (two 3rd-order and six 2nd-order streams). Stream temperature was measured at 29 locations throughout the study period. Linear regression was used to model potential explanatory variables of discharge, temperature, and habitat characteristics to explain annual trout abundance, age structure, and growth.

Impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill evaluated using an end-to-end ecosystem model.

PubMed

Ainsworth, Cameron H; Paris, Claire B; Perlin, Natalie; Dornberger, Lindsey N; Patterson, William F; Chancellor, Emily; Murawski, Steve; Hollander, David; Daly, Kendra; Romero, Isabel C; Coleman, Felicia; Perryman, Holly

2018-01-01

We use a spatially explicit biogeochemical end-to-end ecosystem model, Atlantis, to simulate impacts from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and subsequent recovery of fish guilds. Dose-response relationships with expected oil concentrations were utilized to estimate the impact on fish growth and mortality rates. We also examine the effects of fisheries closures and impacts on recruitment. We validate predictions of the model by comparing population trends and age structure before and after the oil spill with fisheries independent data. The model suggests that recruitment effects and fishery closures had little influence on biomass dynamics. However, at the assumed level of oil concentrations and toxicity, impacts on fish mortality and growth rates were large and commensurate with observations. Sensitivity analysis suggests the biomass of large reef fish decreased by 25% to 50% in areas most affected by the spill, and biomass of large demersal fish decreased even more, by 40% to 70%. Impacts on reef and demersal forage caused starvation mortality in predators and increased reliance on pelagic forage. Impacts on the food web translated effects of the spill far away from the oiled area. Effects on age structure suggest possible delayed impacts on fishery yields. Recovery of high-turnover populations generally is predicted to occur within 10 years, but some slower-growing populations may take 30+ years to fully recover.

Impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill evaluated using an end-to-end ecosystem model

PubMed Central

Paris, Claire B.; Perlin, Natalie; Dornberger, Lindsey N.; Patterson, William F.; Chancellor, Emily; Murawski, Steve; Hollander, David; Daly, Kendra; Romero, Isabel C.; Coleman, Felicia; Perryman, Holly

2018-01-01

We use a spatially explicit biogeochemical end-to-end ecosystem model, Atlantis, to simulate impacts from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and subsequent recovery of fish guilds. Dose-response relationships with expected oil concentrations were utilized to estimate the impact on fish growth and mortality rates. We also examine the effects of fisheries closures and impacts on recruitment. We validate predictions of the model by comparing population trends and age structure before and after the oil spill with fisheries independent data. The model suggests that recruitment effects and fishery closures had little influence on biomass dynamics. However, at the assumed level of oil concentrations and toxicity, impacts on fish mortality and growth rates were large and commensurate with observations. Sensitivity analysis suggests the biomass of large reef fish decreased by 25% to 50% in areas most affected by the spill, and biomass of large demersal fish decreased even more, by 40% to 70%. Impacts on reef and demersal forage caused starvation mortality in predators and increased reliance on pelagic forage. Impacts on the food web translated effects of the spill far away from the oiled area. Effects on age structure suggest possible delayed impacts on fishery yields. Recovery of high-turnover populations generally is predicted to occur within 10 years, but some slower-growing populations may take 30+ years to fully recover. PMID:29370187

Evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on structured populations: a review

PubMed Central

Perc, Matjaž; Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús; Szolnoki, Attila; Floría, Luis M.; Moreno, Yamir

2013-01-01

Interactions among living organisms, from bacteria colonies to human societies, are inherently more complex than interactions among particles and non-living matter. Group interactions are a particularly important and widespread class, representative of which is the public goods game. In addition, methods of statistical physics have proved valuable for studying pattern formation, equilibrium selection and self-organization in evolutionary games. Here, we review recent advances in the study of evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on top of structured populations, including lattices, complex networks and coevolutionary models. We also compare these results with those obtained on well-mixed populations. The review particularly highlights that the study of the dynamics of group interactions, like several other important equilibrium and non-equilibrium dynamical processes in biological, economical and social sciences, benefits from the synergy between statistical physics, network science and evolutionary game theory. PMID:23303223

Population characteristics and the suppression of nonnative Burbot

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klein, Zachary B.; Quist, Michael C.; Rhea, Darren T.; Senecal, Anna C.

2016-01-01

Burbot Lota lota were illegally introduced into the Green River, Wyoming, drainage and have since proliferated throughout the system. Burbot in the Green River pose a threat to native species and to socially, economically, and ecologically important recreational fisheries. Therefore, managers of the Green River are interested in implementing a suppression program for Burbot. We collected demographic data on Burbot in the Green River (summer and autumn 2013) and used the information to construct an age-based population model (female-based Leslie matrix) to simulate the population-level response of Burbot to the selective removal of different age-classes. Burbot in the Green River grew faster, matured at relatively young ages, and were highly fecund compared with other Burbot populations within the species’ native distribution. The age-structured population model, in conjunction with demographic information, indicated that the Burbot population in the Green River could be expected to increase under current conditions. The model also indicated that the Burbot population in the Green River would decline once total annual mortality reached 58%. The population growth of Burbot in the Green River was most sensitive to age-0 and age-1 mortality. The age-structured population model indicated that an increase in mortality, particularly for younger age-classes, would result in the effective suppression of the Burbot population in the Green River.

Inferring individual-level processes from population-level patterns in cultural evolution.

PubMed

Kandler, Anne; Wilder, Bryan; Fortunato, Laura

2017-09-01

Our species is characterized by a great degree of cultural variation, both within and between populations. Understanding how group-level patterns of culture emerge from individual-level behaviour is a long-standing question in the biological and social sciences. We develop a simulation model capturing demographic and cultural dynamics relevant to human cultural evolution, focusing on the interface between population-level patterns and individual-level processes. The model tracks the distribution of variants of cultural traits across individuals in a population over time, conditioned on different pathways for the transmission of information between individuals. From these data, we obtain theoretical expectations for a range of statistics commonly used to capture population-level characteristics (e.g. the degree of cultural diversity). Consistent with previous theoretical work, our results show that the patterns observed at the level of groups are rooted in the interplay between the transmission pathways and the age structure of the population. We also explore whether, and under what conditions, the different pathways can be distinguished based on their group-level signatures, in an effort to establish theoretical limits to inference. Our results show that the temporal dynamic of cultural change over time retains a stronger signature than the cultural composition of the population at a specific point in time. Overall, the results suggest a shift in focus from identifying the one individual-level process that likely produced the observed data to excluding those that likely did not. We conclude by discussing the implications for empirical studies of human cultural evolution.

Preface of the "Symposium on Mathematical Models and Methods to investigate Heterogeneity in Cell and Cell Population Biology"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clairambault, Jean

2016-06-01

This session investigates hot topics related to mathematical representations of cell and cell population dynamics in biology and medicine, in particular, but not only, with applications to cancer. Methods in mathematical modelling and analysis, and in statistical inference using single-cell and cell population data, should contribute to focus this session on heterogeneity in cell populations. Among other methods are proposed: a) Intracellular protein dynamics and gene regulatory networks using ordinary/partial/delay differential equations (ODEs, PDEs, DDEs); b) Representation of cell population dynamics using agent-based models (ABMs) and/or PDEs; c) Hybrid models and multiscale models to integrate single-cell dynamics into cell population behaviour; d) Structured cell population dynamics and asymptotic evolution w.r.t. relevant traits; e) Heterogeneity in cancer cell populations: origin, evolution, phylogeny and methods of reconstruction; f) Drug resistance as an evolutionary phenotype: predicting and overcoming it in therapeutics; g) Theoretical therapeutic optimisation of combined drug treatments in cancer cell populations and in populations of other organisms, such as bacteria.

Reconstructing populations dynamics: Mortality and recruitment of the southern geoduck Panopea abbreviata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaidman, Paula C.; Morsan, Enrique

2018-05-01

In the development of management measures for sustainable fisheries, estimating the natural mortality rate and recruitment are fundamental. In northern Patagonia, Argentina, the southern geoduck, Panopea abbreviata, a long-lived clam that forms spatially disjunct subpopulations, supports an unregulated fishery. In this study, we estimate natural mortality. We studied the age structure of beds within the northern Patagonia gulfs, San Matías Gulf (SMG) and San Jose Gulf (SJG), and we estimated a time series for back-reconstructed recruitment to explore spatial coherence in relation to local oceanographic conditions and to elucidate its population dynamics. We constructed a cumulative frequency distribution of the age of dead shells collected and used the exponential and Weibull models to model mortality. Live geoducks were sampled from six populations between 2000 and 2006. Age-frequency distributions and mortality models were used to back-calculate the time series of recruitment for each population. The recruitment time series was analysed using continuous wavelet transform. The value of natural mortality estimated by the exponential model was 0.054 years-1, whereas those estimated by the Weibull model were α = 0.00085 years-1 and β = 2.1. For the latter, M values for cohorts were 0.01 for 10 years, 0.02 for 20 years, 0.04 for 30 years and 0.05 for 40 years. The Weibull model was observed to be the best fit to the data. The natural mortality rate of P. abbreviata estimated in this study was lower than that estimated in a previous work for populations from SMG. The back-calculated time series for recruitment demonstrated considerable yearly variation, suggesting that local conditions have an important role in recruitment regulation. At a decadal temporal scale, a clear increasing recruitment trend was evident over the last 20 years in all populations. Populations in SMG were settled >60 years ago. In contrast, no individuals older than 30 years were observed in the populations from SJG. P. abbreviata has several characteristics, such as longevity and low instantaneous natural mortality rate, which require attention in any resource planning. However, this species also has positive characteristics for fishery development, as historical recruitment trends indicate that populations are expanding and are part of a widely distributed metapopulation, suggesting that sustainable exploitation is possible.

Aging and Work Organizations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schrank, Harris T.; Waring, Joan M.

Business firms are an integral part of the age stratification structure of society. Although the age structures of people and roles within the organization are dynamic, these structures yield a fairly stable strata in which norms exist to suggest the various roles expected of certain persons. Those in roles with greater financial rewards, power,…

Simple deterministic models and applications. Comment on "Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review" by Z. Wang et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Hyun Mo

2015-12-01

Currently, discrete modellings are largely accepted due to the access to computers with huge storage capacity and high performance processors and easy implementation of algorithms, allowing to develop and simulate increasingly sophisticated models. Wang et al. [7] present a review of dynamics in complex networks, focusing on the interaction between disease dynamics and human behavioral and social dynamics. By doing an extensive review regarding to the human behavior responding to disease dynamics, the authors briefly describe the complex dynamics found in the literature: well-mixed populations networks, where spatial structure can be neglected, and other networks considering heterogeneity on spatially distributed populations. As controlling mechanisms are implemented, such as social distancing due 'social contagion', quarantine, non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination, adaptive behavior can occur in human population, which can be easily taken into account in the dynamics formulated by networked populations.

The Environmental and Social Influences of HIV/AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Focus on Rural Communities

PubMed Central

Oramasionwu, Christine U.; Daniels, Kelly R.; Labreche, Matthew J.; Frei, Christopher R.

2011-01-01

The Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) pandemic has caused far-reaching effects in sub-Saharan Africa. The pandemic has effectively diminished the workforce, increased poverty rates, reduced agricultural productivity, and transformed the structure of many rural households. HIV/AIDS further strains the already fragile relationship between livelihood and the natural and social environments of these regions. Therefore, the objective of this review is to characterize the impact of HIV/AIDS on the environment and the social infrastructure of rural sub-Saharan Africa. There are many aspects of rural life that contribute to disease transmission of HIV/AIDS and that pose unique challenges to the population dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa. Widespread AIDS-related mortality has caused a decrease in population growth for many African countries. In turn, these alterations in population dynamics have resulted in a decrease in the percentage of prime-age working adults, as well as a gender disparity, whereby, females carry a growing burden of household responsibilities. There is a rising proportion of older adults, often females, who assume the role of provider and caretaker for other dependent family members. These changing dynamics have caused many to exploit their natural surroundings, adopting less sustainable land use practices and utilizing protected resources as a primary means of generating revenue. PMID:21845169

Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Most spatial models of host–parasite interactions either neglect the possibility of pathogen evolution or consider that this process is slow enough for epidemiological dynamics to reach an equilibrium on a fast timescale. Here, we propose a novel approach to jointly model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured host and pathogen populations. Starting from a multi-strain epidemiological model, we use a combination of spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyse the dynamics of mean transmission and virulence in the population. A key insight of our approach is that, even in the absence of long-term evolutionary consequences, spatial structure can affect the short-term evolution of pathogens because of the build-up of spatial differentiation in mean virulence. We show that spatial differentiation is driven by a balance between epidemiological and genetic effects, and this quantity is related to the effect of kin competition discussed in previous studies of parasite evolution in spatially structured host populations. Our analysis can be used to understand and predict the transient evolutionary dynamics of pathogens and the emergence of spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. PMID:27798295

Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics.

PubMed

Lion, S; Gandon, S

2016-10-26

Most spatial models of host-parasite interactions either neglect the possibility of pathogen evolution or consider that this process is slow enough for epidemiological dynamics to reach an equilibrium on a fast timescale. Here, we propose a novel approach to jointly model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured host and pathogen populations. Starting from a multi-strain epidemiological model, we use a combination of spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyse the dynamics of mean transmission and virulence in the population. A key insight of our approach is that, even in the absence of long-term evolutionary consequences, spatial structure can affect the short-term evolution of pathogens because of the build-up of spatial differentiation in mean virulence. We show that spatial differentiation is driven by a balance between epidemiological and genetic effects, and this quantity is related to the effect of kin competition discussed in previous studies of parasite evolution in spatially structured host populations. Our analysis can be used to understand and predict the transient evolutionary dynamics of pathogens and the emergence of spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. © 2016 The Author(s).

[Population and crisis. Economic inflexibility or demographic subordination].

PubMed

Morelos, J B

1989-01-01

Much speculation, fact-based and subjective, has centered on the links between population and economic crisis, and between population and progress. In the past, famines directly affected the size and dynamics of population in affected regions, and such cycles inspired theories that regarded subsistence as the adjustment mechanism for demographic regimes. Population has alternatively been viewed as a crucial factor of production and a force for modernization and progress. After World War I and the Great Depression, many economists believed that population growth would be indispensable for renewing economic expansion. The favorable view of population growth in Mexico led to measures to repatriate emigrants, attract immigrants, and improve health conditions. The gross national product grew by around 6.0% annually on average between 1940 and 1960, and the per capita GNP by about 3%. Demographic dynamics acquired momentum by the 1960s, with high growth rates, a young age structure, considerable demographic inertia, and relative predominance of the urban population. Indications began to appear that a primarily economic solution to achieving full development would be unlikely. The polarization of development, distributive insufficiency, distortions in exchange relations for agricultural products, and incorporation of inappropriate technologies were factors decreasing the ability of the economy to respond adequately to population demands. National development was insufficient to meet growing demographic pressures in the labor market, educational system, housing, and urban services. The adjustment programs reduced even further the flexibility of the government to respond to pressures. Expectations for the future have been seriously compromised by the fall of real incomes.

World Population Ageing, 1950-2050.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations, New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs.

Population aging was one of the most distinctive events of the 20th century and will remain important throughout the 21st century. Initially, a phenomenon of more developed countries, the process has recently become apparent in much of the developing world as well. The shift in age structure associated with population aging has a profound impact…

Living in the branches: population dynamics and ecological processes in dendritic networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, E.H.C.; Lowe, W.H.; Fagan, W.F.

2007-01-01

Spatial structure regulates and modifies processes at several levels of ecological organization (e.g. individual/genetic, population and community) and is thus a key component of complex systems, where knowledge at a small scale can be insufficient for understanding system behaviour at a larger scale. Recent syntheses outline potential applications of network theory to ecological systems, but do not address the implications of physical structure for network dynamics. There is a specific need to examine how dendritic habitat structure, such as that found in stream, hedgerow and cave networks, influences ecological processes. Although dendritic networks are one type of ecological network, they are distinguished by two fundamental characteristics: (1) both the branches and the nodes serve as habitat, and (2) the specific spatial arrangement and hierarchical organization of these elements interacts with a species' movement behaviour to alter patterns of population distribution and abundance, and community interactions. Here, we summarize existing theory relating to ecological dynamics in dendritic networks, review empirical studies examining the population- and community-level consequences of these networks, and suggest future research integrating spatial pattern and processes in dendritic systems.

Age, growth and population structure of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) in northeast Florida using a length-based, age-structured population model.

PubMed

Johnson, Eric G; Swenarton, Mary Katherine

2016-01-01

The effective management of invasive species requires detailed understanding of the invader's life history. This information is essential for modeling population growth and predicting rates of expansion, quantifying ecological impacts and assessing the efficacy of removal and control strategies. Indo-Pacific lionfish ( Pterois volitans/miles ) have rapidly invaded the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea with documented negative impacts on native ecosystems. To better understand the life history of this species, we developed and validated a length-based, age-structured model to investigate age, growth and population structure in northeast Florida. The main findings of this study were: (1) lionfish exhibited rapid growth with seasonal variation in growth rates; (2) distinct cohorts were clearly identifiable in the length-frequency data, suggesting that lionfish are recruiting during a relatively short period in summer; and (3) the majority of lionfish were less than two years old with no lionfish older than three years of age, which may be the result of culling efforts as well as ontogenetic habitat shifts to deeper water.

Age, growth and population structure of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) in northeast Florida using a length-based, age-structured population model

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The effective management of invasive species requires detailed understanding of the invader’s life history. This information is essential for modeling population growth and predicting rates of expansion, quantifying ecological impacts and assessing the efficacy of removal and control strategies. Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) have rapidly invaded the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea with documented negative impacts on native ecosystems. To better understand the life history of this species, we developed and validated a length-based, age-structured model to investigate age, growth and population structure in northeast Florida. The main findings of this study were: (1) lionfish exhibited rapid growth with seasonal variation in growth rates; (2) distinct cohorts were clearly identifiable in the length-frequency data, suggesting that lionfish are recruiting during a relatively short period in summer; and (3) the majority of lionfish were less than two years old with no lionfish older than three years of age, which may be the result of culling efforts as well as ontogenetic habitat shifts to deeper water. PMID:27920953

Roles of dispersal, stochasticity, and nonlinear dynamics in the spatial structuring of seasonal natural enemy-victim populations

Treesearch

Patrick C. Tobin; Ottar N. Bjornstad

2005-01-01

Natural enemy-victim systems may exhibit a range of dynamic space-time patterns. We used a theoretical framework to study spatiotemporal structuring in a transient natural enemy-victim system subject to differential rates of dispersal, stochastic forcing, and nonlinear dynamics. Highly mobile natural enemies that attacked less mobile victims were locally spatially...

A generic individual-based model to simulate morphogenesis, C-N acquisition and population dynamics in contrasting forage legumes.

PubMed

Louarn, Gaëtan; Faverjon, Lucas

2018-04-18

Individual-based models (IBMs) are promising tools to disentangle plant interactions in multi-species grasslands and foster innovative species mixtures. This study describes an IBM dealing with the morphogenesis, growth and C-N acquisition of forage legumes that integrates plastic responses from functional-structural plant models. A generic model was developed to account for herbaceous legume species with contrasting above- and below-ground morphogenetic syndromes and to integrate the responses of plants to light, water and N. Through coupling with a radiative transfer model and a three-dimensional virtual soil, the model allows dynamic resolution of competition for multiple resources at individual plant level within a plant community. The behaviour of the model was assessed on a range of monospecific stands grown along gradients of light, water and N availability. The model proved able to capture the diversity of morphologies encountered among the forage legumes. The main density-dependent features known about even-age plant populations were correctly anticipated. The model predicted (1) the 'reciprocal yield' law relating average plant mass to density, (2) a self-thinning pattern close to that measured for herbaceous species and (3) consistent changes in the size structure of plant populations with time and pedo-climatic conditions. In addition, plastic changes in the partitioning of dry matter, the N acquisition mode and in the architecture of shoots and roots emerged from the integration of plant responses to their local environment. This resulted in taller plants and thinner roots when competition was dominated by light, and shorter plants with relatively more developed root systems when competition was dominated by soil resources. A population dynamic model considering growth and morphogenesis responses to multiple resources heterogeneously distributed in the environment was presented. It should allow scaling plant-plant interactions from individual to community levels without the inconvenience of average plant models.

Modeling Chagas Disease at Population Level to Explain Venezuela's Real Data

PubMed Central

González-Parra, Gilberto; Chen-Charpentier, Benito M.; Bermúdez, Moises

2015-01-01

Objectives In this paper we present an age-structured epidemiological model for Chagas disease. This model includes the interactions between human and vector populations that transmit Chagas disease. Methods The human population is divided into age groups since the proportion of infected individuals in this population changes with age as shown by real prevalence data. Moreover, the age-structured model allows more accurate information regarding the prevalence, which can help to design more specific control programs. We apply this proposed model to data from the country of Venezuela for two periods, 1961–1971, and 1961–1991 taking into account real demographic data for these periods. Results Numerical computer simulations are presented to show the suitability of the age-structured model to explain the real data regarding prevalence of Chagas disease in each of the age groups. In addition, a numerical simulation varying the death rate of the vector is done to illustrate prevention and control strategies against Chagas disease. Conclusion The proposed model can be used to determine the effect of control strategies in different age groups. PMID:26929912

High Connectivity among Blue Crab (Callinectes sapidus) Populations in the Western South Atlantic

PubMed Central

Kersanach, Ralf; Cortinhas, Maria Cristina Silva; Prata, Pedro Fernandes Sanmartin; Dumont, Luiz Felipe Cestari; Proietti, Maíra Carneiro; Maggioni, Rodrigo; D’Incao, Fernando

2016-01-01

Population connectivity in the blue crab Callinectes sapidus was evaluated along 740 km of the Western South Atlantic coast. Blue crabs are the most exploited portunid in Brazil. Despite their economic importance, few studies report their ecology or population structure. Here we sampled four estuarine areas in southern Brazil during winter 2013 and summer 2014 in order to evaluate diversity, gene flow and structure of these populations. Nine microsatellite markers were evaluated for 213 adult crabs, with identification of seven polymorphic loci and 183 alleles. Pairwise FST values indicated low population structure ranging from -0.00023 to 0.01755. A Mantel test revealed that the geographic distance does not influence genetic (r = -0.48), and structure/migration rates confirmed this, showing that even the populations located at the opposite extremities of our covered region presented low FST and exchanged migrants. These findings show that there is a significant amount of gene flow between blue crab populations in South Brazil, likely influenced by local current dynamics that allow the transport of a high number of larvae between estuaries. Considering the elevated gene flow, the populations can be considered a single genetic stock. However, further information on population size and dynamics, as well as fishery demands and impacts at different regions, are necessary for harvest management purposes. PMID:27064977

The effect of climatic forcing on population synchrony and genetic structuring of the Canadian lynx

PubMed Central

Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Ehrich, Dorothee; Rueness, Eli Knispel; Lingjærde, Ole Chr.; Chan, Kung-Sik; Boutin, Stan; O'Donoghue, Mark; Robinson, David A.; Viljugrein, Hildegunn; Jakobsen, Kjetill S.

2004-01-01

The abundance of Canadian lynx follows 10-year density fluctuations across the Canadian subcontinent. These cyclic fluctuations have earlier been shown to be geographically structured into three climatic regions: the Atlantic, Continental, and Pacific zones. Recent genetic evidence revealed an essentially similar spatial structuring. Introducing a new population model, the “climate forcing of ecological and evolutionary patterns” model, we link the observed ecological and evolutionary patterns. Specifically, we demonstrate that there is greater phase synchrony within climatic zones than between them and show that external climatic forcing may act as a synchronizer. We simulated genetic drift by using data on population dynamics generated by the climate forcing of ecological and evolutionary patterns model, and we demonstrate that the observed genetic structuring can be seen as an emerging property of the spatiotemporal ecological dynamics. PMID:15067131

The demographic components of population aging in China.

PubMed

Grigsby, J S; Olshansky, S J

1989-01-01

"In this paper we examine measures of population aging in China from 1953 to 1982, and then project population aging to the year 2050 using a cohort-components methodology.... Results indicate that China's population will age at an unprecedented rate over the next 70 years, both in terms of the absolute size of the elderly population and their proportion of the total population. At least 50 percent of the projected increase in population aging in China between 1980 and 2050 will be a product of the momentum for aging that is already built into the present age structure and vital rates. However, prospective trends in the measures of population aging become increasingly more sensitive to varying assumptions about fertility and mortality with time, and as older age groups are considered." excerpt

Consequences of parental care on population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Oliveira, S. Moss

1999-12-01

We review the results obtained using the Penna model for biological ageing (T.J.P. Penna, J. Stat. Phys. 78 (1995) 1629) when different strategies of parental care are introduced into evolving populations. These results concern to: longevity of semelparous populations; self-organization of female menopause; the spatial distribution of the populations and finally, sexual fidelity.

Data-driven model for the assessment of Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in evolving demographic structures

PubMed Central

Arregui, Sergio; Marinova, Dessislava; Sanz, Joaquín

2018-01-01

In the case of tuberculosis (TB), the capabilities of epidemic models to produce quantitatively robust forecasts are limited by multiple hindrances. Among these, understanding the complex relationship between disease epidemiology and populations’ age structure has been highlighted as one of the most relevant. TB dynamics depends on age in multiple ways, some of which are traditionally simplified in the literature. That is the case of the heterogeneities in contact intensity among different age strata that are common to all airborne diseases, but still typically neglected in the TB case. Furthermore, while demographic structures of many countries are rapidly aging, demographic dynamics are pervasively ignored when modeling TB spreading. In this work, we present a TB transmission model that incorporates country-specific demographic prospects and empirical contact data around a data-driven description of TB dynamics. Using our model, we find that the inclusion of demographic dynamics is followed by an increase in the burden levels predicted for the next decades in the areas of the world that are most hit by the disease today. Similarly, we show that considering realistic patterns of contacts among individuals in different age strata reshapes the transmission patterns reproduced by the models, a result with potential implications for the design of age-focused epidemiological interventions. PMID:29563223

El Niño controls Holocene rabbit and hare populations in Baja California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, Isaac A.; Broughton, Jack M.; Gruhn, Ruth

2015-07-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of climatic variation worldwide, with significant impacts on modern human and animal populations. However, few detailed records exist on the long-term effects of ENSO on prehistoric vertebrate populations. Here we examine how lagomorph (rabbit and hare) deposition rate, population age structure and taxonomic composition from Abrigo de los Escorpiones, a well-dated, trans-Holocene vertebrate fauna from northern Baja California, Mexico, vary as a function of the frequency of wet El Niño events and eastern Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) derived from eastern Pacific geological records. Faunal indices vary significantly in response to El Niño-based precipitation and SST, with substantial moisture-driven variability in the middle and late Holocene. The late Holocene moisture pulse is coincident with previously documented changes in the population dynamics of other vertebrates, including humans. As the frequency and intensity of ENSO is anticipated to vary in the future, these results have important implications for change in future vertebrate populations.

Predator-prey-subsidy population dynamics on stepping-stone domains.

PubMed

Shen, Lulan; Van Gorder, Robert A

2017-05-07

Predator-prey-subsidy dynamics on stepping-stone domains are examined using a variety of network configurations. Our problem is motivated by the interactions between arctic foxes (predator) and lemmings (prey) in the presence of seal carrion (subsidy) provided by polar bears. We use the n-Patch Model, which considers space explicitly as a "Stepping Stone" system. We consider the role that the carrying capacity, predator migration rate, input subsidy rate, predator mortality rate, and proportion of predators surviving migration play in the predator-prey-subsidy population dynamics. We find that for certain types of networks, added mobility will help predator populations, allowing them to survive or coexist when they would otherwise go extinct if confined to one location, while in other situations (such as when sparsely distributed nodes in the network have few resources available) the added mobility will hurt the predator population. We also find that a combination of favourable conditions for the prey and subsidy can lead to the formation of limit cycles (boom and bust dynamic) from stable equilibrium states. These modifications to the dynamics vary depending on the specific network structure employed, highlighting the fact that network structure can strongly influence the predator-prey-subsidy dynamics in stepping-stone domains. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Public Health and Economic Impact of Intranasal Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccination of Children in France Using a Dynamic Transmission Model.

PubMed

Gerlier, L; Lamotte, M; Grenèche, S; Lenne, X; Carrat, F; Weil-Olivier, C; Damm, O; Schwehm, M; Eichner, M

2017-04-01

We estimated the epidemiological and economic impact of extending the French influenza vaccination programme from at-risk/elderly (≥65 years) only to healthy children (2-17 years). A deterministic, age-structured, dynamic transmission model was used to simulate the transmission of influenza in the French population, using the current vaccination coverage with trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV) in at-risk/elderly individuals (current strategy) or gradually extending the vaccination to healthy children (aged 2-17 years) with intranasal, quadrivalent live-attenuated influenza vaccine (QLAIV) from current uptake up to 50% (evaluated strategy). Epidemiological, medical resource use and cost data were taken from international literature and country-specific information. The model was calibrated to the observed numbers of influenza-like illness visits/year. The 10-year number of symptomatic cases of confirmed influenza and direct medical costs ('all-payer') were calculated for the 0-17- (direct and indirect effects) and ≥18-year-old (indirect effect). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for the total population, using a 4% discount rate/year. Assuming 2.3 million visits/year and 1960 deaths/year, the model calibration yielded an all-year average basic reproduction number (R 0 ) of 1.27. In the population aged 0-17 years, QLAIV prevented 865,000 influenza cases/year (58.4%), preventing 10-year direct medical expenses of €374 million. In those aged ≥18 years with unchanged TIV coverage, 1.2 million cases/year were averted (27.6%) via indirect effects (additionally prevented expenses, €457 million). On average, 613 influenza-related deaths were averted annually overall. The ICER was €18,001/life-year gained. The evaluated strategy had a 98% probability of being cost-effective at a €31,000/life-year gained threshold. The model demonstrated strong direct and indirect benefits of protecting healthy children against influenza with QLAIV on public health and economic outcomes in France.

Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long-lived shorebird.

PubMed

van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M

2010-04-01

Climate change affects both the mean and variability of climatic variables, but their relative impact on the dynamics of populations is still largely unexplored. Based on a long-term study of the demography of a declining Eurasian Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) population, we quantify the effect of changes in mean and variance of winter temperature on different vital rates across the life cycle. Subsequently, we quantify, using stochastic stage-structured models, how changes in the mean and variance of this environmental variable affect important characteristics of the future population dynamics, such as the time to extinction. Local mean winter temperature is predicted to strongly increase, and we show that this is likely to increase the population's persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that higher temperatures have on fecundity. Interannual variation in winter temperature is predicted to decrease, which is also likely to increase persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that lower temperature variability has on fecundity. Overall, a 0.1 degrees C change in mean temperature is predicted to alter median time to extinction by 1.5 times as many years as would a 0.1 degrees C change in the standard deviation in temperature, suggesting that the dynamics of oystercatchers are more sensitive to changes in the mean than in the interannual variability of this climatic variable. Moreover, as climate models predict larger changes in the mean than in the standard deviation of local winter temperature, the effects of future climatic variability on this population's time to extinction are expected to be overwhelmed by the effects of changes in climatic means. We discuss the mechanisms by which climatic variability can either increase or decrease population viability and how this might depend both on species' life histories and on the vital rates affected. This study illustrates that, for making reliable inferences about population consequences in species in which life history changes with age or stage, it is crucial to investigate the impact of climate change on vital rates across the entire life cycle. Disturbingly, such data are unavailable for most species of conservation concern.

Chaotic attractors and physical measures for some density dependent Leslie population models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ugarcovici, Ilie; Weiss, Howard

2007-12-01

Following ecologists' discoveries, mathematicians have begun studying extensions of the ubiquitous age structured Leslie population model that allow some survival probabilities and/or fertility rates to depend on population densities. These nonlinear extensions commonly exhibit very complicated dynamics: through computer studies, some authors have discovered robust Hénon-like strange attractors in several families. Population biologists and demographers frequently wish to average a function over many generations and conclude that the average is independent of the initial population distribution. This type of 'ergodicity' seems to be a fundamental tenet in population biology. In this paper we develop the first rigorous ergodic theoretic framework for density dependent Leslie population models. We study two generation models with Ricker and Hassell (recruitment type) fertility terms. We prove that for some parameter regions these models admit a chaotic (ergodic) attractor which supports a unique physical probability measure. This physical measure, having full Lebesgue measure basin, satisfies in the strongest possible sense the population biologist's requirement for ergodicity in their population models. We use the celebrated work of Wang and Young 2001 Commun. Math. Phys. 218 1-97, and our results are the first applications of their method to biology, ecology or demography.

Open framework for management and processing of multi-modality and multidimensional imaging data for analysis and modelling muscular function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García Juan, David; Delattre, Bénédicte M. A.; Trombella, Sara; Lynch, Sean; Becker, Matthias; Choi, Hon Fai; Ratib, Osman

2014-03-01

Musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) are becoming a big healthcare economical burden in developed countries with aging population. Classical methods like biopsy or EMG used in clinical practice for muscle assessment are invasive and not accurately sufficient for measurement of impairments of muscular performance. Non-invasive imaging techniques can nowadays provide effective alternatives for static and dynamic assessment of muscle function. In this paper we present work aimed toward the development of a generic data structure for handling n-dimensional metabolic and anatomical data acquired from hybrid PET/MR scanners. Special static and dynamic protocols were developed for assessment of physical and functional images of individual muscles of the lower limb. In an initial stage of the project a manual segmentation of selected muscles was performed on high-resolution 3D static images and subsequently interpolated to full dynamic set of contours from selected 2D dynamic images across different levels of the leg. This results in a full set of 4D data of lower limb muscles at rest and during exercise. These data can further be extended to a 5D data by adding metabolic data obtained from PET images. Our data structure and corresponding image processing extension allows for better evaluation of large volumes of multidimensional imaging data that are acquired and processed to generate dynamic models of the moving lower limb and its muscular function.

Gene flow and genetic structure in the Galician population (NW Spain) according to Alu insertions

PubMed Central

Varela, Tito A; Fariña, José; Diéguez, Lois Pérez; Lodeiro, Rosa

2008-01-01

Background The most recent Alu insertions reveal different degrees of polymorphism in human populations, and a series of characteristics that make them particularly suitable genetic markers for Human Biology studies. This has led these polymorphisms to be used to analyse the origin and phylogenetic relationships between contemporary human groups. This study analyses twelve Alu sequences in a sample of 216 individuals from the autochthonous population of Galicia (NW Spain), with the aim of studying their genetic structure and phylogenetic position with respect to the populations of Western and Central Europe and North Africa, research that is of special interest in revealing European population dynamics, given the peculiarities of the Galician population due to its geographical situation in western Europe, and its historical vicissitudes. Results The insertion frequencies of eleven of the Alu elements analysed were within the variability range of European populations, while Yb8NBC125 proved to be the lowest so far recorded to date in Europe. Taking the twelve polymorphisms into account, the GD value for the Galician population was 0.268. The comparative analyses carried out using the MDS, NJ and AMOVA methods reveal the existence of spatial heterogeneity, and identify three population groups that correspond to the geographic areas of Western-Central Europe, Eastern Mediterranean Europe and North Africa. Galicia is shown to be included in the Western-Central European cluster, together with other Spanish populations. When only considering populations from Mediterranean Europe, the Galician population revealed a degree of genetic flow similar to that of the majority of the populations from this geographic area. Conclusion The results of this study reveal that the Galician population, despite its geographic situation in the western edge of the European continent, occupies an intermediate position in relation to other European populations in general, and Iberian populations in particular. This confirms the important role that migratory movements have had in the European gene pool, at least since Neolithic times. In turn, the MDS and NJ analyses place Galicia within the group comprised of Western-Central European populations, which is justified by the influence of Germanic peoples on the Galician population during the Middle Ages. However, it should also be noted that some of the markers analysed have a certain degree of differentiation, possibly due to the region's position as a 'cul-de-sac' in terms of Iberian population dynamics. PMID:19055739

Gene flow and genetic structure in the Galician population (NW Spain) according to Alu insertions.

PubMed

Varela, Tito A; Fariña, José; Diéguez, Lois Pérez; Lodeiro, Rosa

2008-12-02

The most recent Alu insertions reveal different degrees of polymorphism in human populations, and a series of characteristics that make them particularly suitable genetic markers for Human Biology studies. This has led these polymorphisms to be used to analyse the origin and phylogenetic relationships between contemporary human groups. This study analyses twelve Alu sequences in a sample of 216 individuals from the autochthonous population of Galicia (NW Spain), with the aim of studying their genetic structure and phylogenetic position with respect to the populations of Western and Central Europe and North Africa, research that is of special interest in revealing European population dynamics, given the peculiarities of the Galician population due to its geographical situation in western Europe, and its historical vicissitudes. The insertion frequencies of eleven of the Alu elements analysed were within the variability range of European populations, while Yb8NBC125 proved to be the lowest so far recorded to date in Europe. Taking the twelve polymorphisms into account, the GD value for the Galician population was 0.268. The comparative analyses carried out using the MDS, NJ and AMOVA methods reveal the existence of spatial heterogeneity, and identify three population groups that correspond to the geographic areas of Western-Central Europe, Eastern Mediterranean Europe and North Africa. Galicia is shown to be included in the Western-Central European cluster, together with other Spanish populations. When only considering populations from Mediterranean Europe, the Galician population revealed a degree of genetic flow similar to that of the majority of the populations from this geographic area. The results of this study reveal that the Galician population, despite its geographic situation in the western edge of the European continent, occupies an intermediate position in relation to other European populations in general, and Iberian populations in particular. This confirms the important role that migratory movements have had in the European gene pool, at least since Neolithic times. In turn, the MDS and NJ analyses place Galicia within the group comprised of Western-Central European populations, which is justified by the influence of Germanic peoples on the Galician population during the Middle Ages. However, it should also be noted that some of the markers analysed have a certain degree of differentiation, possibly due to the region's position as a 'cul-de-sac' in terms of Iberian population dynamics.

Periodicity in Age-Resolved Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esipov, Sergei

We discuss the interplay between the non-linear diffusion and age-resolved population dynamics. Depending on the age properties of collective migration the system may exhibit continuous joint expansion of all ages or continuous expansion with age segregation. Between these two obvious limiting regimes there is an interesting window of periodic expansion, which has been previously used by us in modeling bacterial colonies of Proteus mirabilis. In order to test whether the age-dependent collective migration leads to periodicity in other systems we performed a Fourier analysis of historical data on ethnic expansions and found multiple co-existing periods of activity.

Population dynamics among Asmat hunter-gatherers of New Guinea: data, methods, comparisons.

PubMed

Van Arsdale, P W

1978-12-01

Since 1953 the Asmat hunter-gatherers of Irian Jaya have been experiencing rapid cultural change, yet demographically they still can be classified as "living primitives." Methods of nonstandard data analysis are used in an effort to provide specific information on age-sex structure, fertility, birthrates, death rates, population growth, internal migration, and life expectancy and to aid in the development of a 2-part model of population growth encompassing the immediate precontact and contact eras. The population data upon which the discussion is based were obtained in 1973 and 1974 as part of a broader field study that aimed at assessing the impact of externally induced culture change. Special attention is given to the continuing although reduced impact of infanticide. Brief comparisons with other Melanesian and 3rd world societies are presented; the Asmat average annual growth rate of 1.5% since 1st permanent contact in 1953 contrasts with the generally higher rates reported for most of these other groups.

Characterizing source-sink dynamics with genetic parentage assignments

Treesearch

M. Zachariah Peery; Steven R. Beissinger; Roger F. House; Martine Berube; Laurie A. Hall; Anna Sellas; Per J. Palsboll

2008-01-01

Source-sink dynamics have been suggested to characterize the population structure of many species, but the prevalence of source-sink systems in nature is uncertain because of inherent challenges in estimating migration rates among populations. Migration rates are often difficult to estimate directly with demographic methods, and indirect genetic methods are subject to...

Source-sink dynamics sustain central stonerollers (Campostoma anomalum) in a heavily urbanized catchment

Treesearch

Eric R. Waits; Mark J. Bagley; Michael J. Blum; Frank H. McCormick; James M. Lazorchak

2008-01-01

Relating local demographic processes to spatial structure (e.g. habitat heterogeneity) is essential for understanding population and species persistence (Hanski & Gilpin, 1997; Fagan, 2002). Yet few studies have tested general hypotheses about the importance of spatial patterns in determining population dynamics within river­stream networks (Lowe, Likens &...

Seasonal and interannual changes in zooplankton community in the coastal zone of the North-Eastern Black Sea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikishina, A. B.; Arashkevich, E. G.; Louppova, N. E.; Soloviev, K. A.

2009-04-01

The phenological response of zooplankton community is a result of simultaneous effect of several factors: feeding conditions, predation abundance, periods of reproduction of common species and hydrodynamic regime. The Black sea ecosystem is one of the best studied in the world, otherwise there is still some illegibility about ecosystem functioning and especially about environmental factors influence on zooplankton dynamics. For the last twenty years pelagic system of the Black Sea has changed dramatically. The invasion of ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi in the middle of eighties caused significant decrease in zooplankton biomass. It also altered plankton structure and shifted periods of mass reproduction of the abundant species and biomass maximums. For instance, before the invasion of Mnemiopsis the maximum of zooplankton biomass was observed in autumn (data by A. Pasternak, 1983), and after that the maximum moved to the spring (data by V.S. Khoroshilov, 1999). The incursion of ctenophore Beroe ovata feeding on Mnemiopsis in the nineties has led to the enhancement of zooplankton community. Although the detailed analysis of seasonal zooplankton dynamics wasn't performed in the recent years. The object of our research was to study seasonal and interannual changes in zooplankton community in the coastal area of the North-Eastern Black Sea. Analysis of interannual, seasonal and spatial changes in zooplankton distribution, abundance and species composition along with age structure of dominant populations were performed based on investigations during 2005-2008 years in the North-Eastern Black Sea. Plankton samples were obtained monthly since June 2005 till December 2008. Plankton was collected at three stations at depths 25m, 50m and 500-1000m along the transect from the Blue Bay to the open sea. Sampling of gelatinous animals was conducted in parallel to the zooplankton sampling. Simultaneously with plankton sampling CTD data were obtained. The feeding conditions were obtained using SSC satellite data. For studying vertical distribution of zooplankton depth stratified samples were collected in different seasons. To evaluate seasonal variations in reproduction and offspring development of dominant mesozooplankton populations, we analyzed age structure of five species: four herbivorous copepods - Acartia clausi, Pseudocalanus elongatus, Paracalanus parvus and Calanus euxinus, and carnivorous chaethognaths Parasagitta setosa. Periods of mass reproduction varied in different years. The possible reason for this variation is the effect of climate change and top-predators on seasonal shift in zooplankton dynamics. Whereas timing of reproduction is related to life strategy of species, an intensity of reproduction and success of new generations depend on food supply. The impact of food conditions on abundance and age structure of herbivores was studied in the different seasons. Vertical distribution of different species also altered from year to year. Thus, in "warm" July 2007 (sea surface temperature 27°C) most of the Calanus euxinus population concentrated in the deeper layers than in "cold" July 2005 (sea surface temperature 22°C).

Spatial structure and nutrients promote invasion of IncP-1 plasmids in bacterial populations

PubMed Central

Fox, Randal E; Zhong, Xue; Krone, Stephen M; Top, Eva M

2008-01-01

In spite of the importance of plasmids in bacterial adaptation, we have a poor understanding of their dynamics. It is not known if or how plasmids persist in and spread through (invade) a bacterial population when there is no selection for plasmid-encoded traits. Moreover, the differences in dynamics between spatially structured and mixed populations are poorly understood. Through a joint experimental/theoretical approach, we tested the hypothesis that self-transmissible IncP-1 plasmids can invade a bacterial population in the absence of selection when initially very rare, but only in spatially structured habitats and when nutrients are regularly replenished. Using protocols that differed in the degree of spatial structure and nutrient levels, the invasiveness of plasmid pB10 in Escherichia coli was monitored during at least 15 days, with an initial fraction of plasmid-bearing (p+) cells as low as 10−7. To further explore the mechanisms underlying plasmid dynamics, we developed a spatially explicit mathematical model. When cells were grown on filters and transferred to fresh medium daily, the p+ fraction increased to 13%, whereas almost complete invasion occurred when the population structure was disturbed daily. The plasmid was unable to invade in liquid. When carbon source levels were lower or not replenished, plasmid invasion was hampered. Simulations of the mathematical model closely matched the experimental results and produced estimates of the effects of alternative experimental parameters. This allowed us to isolate the likely mechanisms most responsible for the observations. In conclusion, spatial structure and nutrient availability can be key determinants in the invasiveness of plasmids. PMID:18528415

[Population dynamics and development in the Caribbean].

PubMed

Boland, B

1995-12-01

The impact is examined of socioeconomic factors on Caribbean population dynamics. This work begins by describing the socioeconomic context of the late 1980s and early 1990s, under the influence of the economic changes and crises of the 1980s. The small size, openness, dependency, and lack of diversification of the Caribbean economies have made them vulnerable to external pressures. The Bahamas and Belize had economic growth rates exceeding 5% annually during 1981-90, but most of the countries had low or negative growth. Unemployment, poverty, the structural adjustment measures adopted in the mid-1980s, and declines in social spending exacerbated general economic conditions. In broad terms, the population situation of the Caribbean is marked by diversity of sizes and growth rates. A few countries oriented toward services and tourism had demographic growth rates exceeding 3%, while at least 7 had almost no growth or negative growth. Population growth rates reflected different combinations of natural increase and migration. Crude death rates ranged from around 5/1000 to 11/1000, except in Haiti, and all countries of the region except Haiti had life expectancies of 70 years or higher. Despite fertility decline, the average crude birth rate was still relatively high at 26/1000, and the rate of natural increase was 1.8% annually for the region. Nearly half of the regional population was under 15 or over 65 years old. The body of this work provides greater detail on mortality patterns, variations by sex, infant mortality, causes of death, and implications for policy. The discussion of fertility includes general patterns and trends, age specific fertility rates, contraceptive prevalence, levels of adolescent fertility and age factors in adolescent sexual behavior, characteristics of adolescent unions, contraceptive usage, health and social consequences of adolescent childbearing, and the search for solutions. The final section describes the magnitude and causes of emigration from the Caribbean and the impact of emigration on population composition, with attention to intraregional and return migration.

China: Awakening Giant Developing Solutions to Population Aging

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Ning Jackie; Guo, Man; Zheng, Xiaoying

2012-01-01

As the world's most populous country with the largest aging population and a rapidly growing economy, China is receiving increased attention from both the Chinese government and the governments of other countries that face low fertility and aging problems. This unprecedented shift of demographic structure has repercussions for many aspects of…

Eco-genetic modeling of contemporary life-history evolution.

PubMed

Dunlop, Erin S; Heino, Mikko; Dieckmann, Ulf

2009-10-01

We present eco-genetic modeling as a flexible tool for exploring the course and rates of multi-trait life-history evolution in natural populations. We build on existing modeling approaches by combining features that facilitate studying the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of realistically structured populations. In particular, the joint consideration of age and size structure enables the analysis of phenotypically plastic populations with more than a single growth trajectory, and ecological feedback is readily included in the form of density dependence and frequency dependence. Stochasticity and life-history trade-offs can also be implemented. Critically, eco-genetic models permit the incorporation of salient genetic detail such as a population's genetic variances and covariances and the corresponding heritabilities, as well as the probabilistic inheritance and phenotypic expression of quantitative traits. These inclusions are crucial for predicting rates of evolutionary change on both contemporary and longer timescales. An eco-genetic model can be tightly coupled with empirical data and therefore may have considerable practical relevance, in terms of generating testable predictions and evaluating alternative management measures. To illustrate the utility of these models, we present as an example an eco-genetic model used to study harvest-induced evolution of multiple traits in Atlantic cod. The predictions of our model (most notably that harvesting induces a genetic reduction in age and size at maturation, an increase or decrease in growth capacity depending on the minimum-length limit, and an increase in reproductive investment) are corroborated by patterns observed in wild populations. The predicted genetic changes occur together with plastic changes that could phenotypically mask the former. Importantly, our analysis predicts that evolutionary changes show little signs of reversal following a harvest moratorium. This illustrates how predictions offered by eco-genetic models can enable and guide evolutionarily sustainable resource management.

Age-related changes in human vestibulo-ocular reflexes: Sinusoidal rotation and caloric tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterka, R. J.; Black, F. O.; Schoenhoff, M. B.

1989-01-01

The dynamic response properties of horizontal vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) were characterized in 216 human subjects ranging in age from 7 to 81 years. The object of this cross-sectional study was to determine the effects of aging on VOR dynamics, and to identify the distributions of parameters which describe VOR responses to caloric and to sinusoidal rotational stimuli in a putatively normal population. Caloric test parameters showed no consistent trend with age. Rotation test parameters showed declining response amplitude and slightly less compensatory response phase with increasing age. The magnitudes of these changes were not large relative to the variability within the population. The age-related trends in VOR were not consistent with the anatomic changes in the periphery reported by others which showed an increasing rate of peripheral hair cell and nerve fiber loss in subjects over 55 years. The poor correlation between physiological and anatomical data suggest that adaptive mechanisms in the central nervous system are important in maintaining the VOR.

Approaching the molecular origins of collective dynamics in oscillating cell populations

PubMed Central

Mehta, Pankaj; Gregor, Thomas

2011-01-01

From flocking birds, to organ generation, to swarming bacterial colonies, biological systems often exhibit collective behaviors. Here, we review recent advances in our understanding of collective dynamics in cell populations. We argue that understanding population-level oscillations requires examining the system under consideration at three different levels of complexity: at the level of isolated cells, homogenous populations, and spatially structured populations. We discuss the experimental and theoretical challenges this poses and highlight how new experimental techniques, when combined with conceptual tools adapted from physics, may help us overcome these challenges. PMID:20934869

Probable causes of increasing brucellosis in free-ranging elk of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cross, P.C.; Cole, E.K.; Dobson, A.P.; Edwards, W.H.; Hamlin, K.L.; Luikart, G.; Middleton, A.D.; Scurlock, B.M.; White, P.J.

2010-01-01

While many wildlife species are threatened, some populations have recovered from previous overexploitation, and data linking these population increases with disease dynamics are limited. We present data suggesting that free-ranging elk (Cervus elaphus) are a maintenance host for Brucella abortus in new areas of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Brucellosis seroprevalence in free-ranging elk increased from 0-7% in 1991-1992 to 8-20% in 2006-2007 in four of six herd units around the GYE. These levels of brucellosis are comparable to some herd units where elk are artificially aggregated on supplemental feeding grounds. There are several possible mechanisms for this increase that we evaluated using statistical and population modeling approaches. Simulations of an age-structured population model suggest that the observed levels of seroprevalence are unlikely to be sustained by dispersal from supplemental feeding areas with relatively high seroprevalence or an older age structure. Increases in brucellosis seroprevalence and the total elk population size in areas with feeding grounds have not been statistically detectable. Meanwhile, the rate of seroprevalence increase outside the feeding grounds was related to the population size and density of each herd unit. Therefore, the data suggest that enhanced elk-to-elk transmission in free-ranging populations may be occurring due to larger winter elk aggregations. Elk populations inside and outside of the GYE that traditionally did not maintain brucellosis may now be at risk due to recent population increases. In particular, some neighboring populations of Montana elk were 5-9 times larger in 2007 than in the 1970s, with some aggregations comparable to the Wyoming feeding-ground populations. Addressing the unintended consequences of these increasing populations is complicated by limited hunter access to private lands, which places many ungulate populations out of administrative control. Agency-landowner hunting access partnerships and the protection of large predators are two management strategies that may be used to target high ungulate densities in private refuges and reduce the current and future burden of disease. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Socio-Demographic Determinants of Economic Growth: Age-Structure, Preindustrial Heritage and Sociolinguistic Integration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crenshaw, Edward; Robison, Kristopher

2010-01-01

This study establishes a socio-demographic theory of international development derived from selected classical and contemporary sociological theories. Four hypotheses are tested: (1. population growth's effect on development depends on age-structure; (2. historic population density (used here as an indicator of preindustrial social complexity)…

Analysis of near infrared spectra for age-grading of wild populations of Anopheles gambiae

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A greater understanding of the age-structure of mosquito populations, especially malaria vectors such as Anopheles gambiae, is important for assessing the risk of infectious mosquitoes, and how vector control interventions may affect this structure. The use of near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) for a...

[The impact of the social economic conditions on the reproduction processes].

PubMed

Leonova, N G

2007-01-01

The social economic conditions of population reproduction in the Trans-Dniester Region with the emphasis on its specifics are analyzed. The natural dynamics of population is estimated including gender and age peculiarities, marriage and divorces statistics, migration processes and population health in the region. It is shown that the population reproduction dynamics follows the natural laws and processes. The role of the post-Soviet period social economic conditions harmful to health are considered. The interdependencies between the social economic development and population reproduction are revealed. The recommendations related to the means of the further enhancement of social economic conditions as related to population reproduction in the Trans-Dniester Region are proposed.

Using population genetic tools to develop a control strategy for feral cats (Felis catus) in Hawai'i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, H.; Hess, S.C.; Cole, D.; Banko, P.C.

2007-01-01

Population genetics can provide information about the demographics and dynamics of invasive species that is beneficial for developing effective control strategies. We studied the population genetics of feral cats on Hawai'i Island by microsatellite analysis to evaluate genetic diversity and population structure, assess gene flow and connectivity among three populations, identify potential source populations, characterise population dynamics, and evaluate sex-biased dispersal. High genetic diversity, low structure, and high number of migrants per generation supported high gene flow that was not limited spatially. Migration rates revealed that most migration occurred out of West Mauna Kea. Effective population size estimates indicated increasing cat populations despite control efforts. Despite high gene flow, relatedness estimates declined significantly with increased geographic distance and Bayesian assignment tests revealed the presence of three population clusters. Genetic structure and relatedness estimates indicated male-biased dispersal, primarily from Mauna Kea, suggesting that this population should be targeted for control. However, recolonisation seems likely, given the great dispersal ability that may not be inhibited by barriers such as lava flows. Genetic monitoring will be necessary to assess the effectiveness of future control efforts. Management of other invasive species may benefit by employing these population genetic tools. ?? CSIRO 2007.

A quantitative model of honey bee colony population dynamics.

PubMed

Khoury, David S; Myerscough, Mary R; Barron, Andrew B

2011-04-18

Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem.

[The dynamic nature of the nutrition of the population of 1 of the districts of Moscow over a 10-year period].

PubMed

Eganian, R A; Kalinina, A M; Izmaĭlova, O V; Shaternikova, I N

2000-01-01

On the basis of three-multiple research of character of a feed of the inhabitants of one of Moscow district by the standardized method of the 24-th hour interrogation reveals significant changes in structure of a feed of the population from 1986 to 1996. The shifts have appeared more dynamical in the second five-year from 1991 to 1996. Nevertheless, atherogenicity of ration of a researched population with superfluous consumption of the saturated fats and simple carbohydrates remains. Is established, in a feed of the women there were large shifts, than at the men. The structure of a feed of the inhabitants of Moscow differed from structure of a feed of the inhabitants of Russia.

Bipartite graphs as models of population structures in evolutionary multiplayer games.

PubMed

Peña, Jorge; Rochat, Yannick

2012-01-01

By combining evolutionary game theory and graph theory, "games on graphs" study the evolutionary dynamics of frequency-dependent selection in population structures modeled as geographical or social networks. Networks are usually represented by means of unipartite graphs, and social interactions by two-person games such as the famous prisoner's dilemma. Unipartite graphs have also been used for modeling interactions going beyond pairwise interactions. In this paper, we argue that bipartite graphs are a better alternative to unipartite graphs for describing population structures in evolutionary multiplayer games. To illustrate this point, we make use of bipartite graphs to investigate, by means of computer simulations, the evolution of cooperation under the conventional and the distributed N-person prisoner's dilemma. We show that several implicit assumptions arising from the standard approach based on unipartite graphs (such as the definition of replacement neighborhoods, the intertwining of individual and group diversity, and the large overlap of interaction neighborhoods) can have a large impact on the resulting evolutionary dynamics. Our work provides a clear example of the importance of construction procedures in games on graphs, of the suitability of bigraphs and hypergraphs for computational modeling, and of the importance of concepts from social network analysis such as centrality, centralization and bipartite clustering for the understanding of dynamical processes occurring on networked population structures.

Hydrologic Variability Governs Population Dynamics of a Vulnerable Amphibian in an Arid Environment

PubMed Central

Zylstra, Erin R.; Steidl, Robert J.; Swann, Don E.; Ratzlaff, Kristina

2015-01-01

Dynamics of many amphibian populations are governed by the distribution and availability of water. Therefore, understanding the hydrological mechanisms that explain spatial and temporal variation in occupancy and abundance will improve our ability to conserve and recover populations of vulnerable amphibians. We used 16 years of survey data from intermittent mountain streams in the Sonoran Desert to evaluate how availability of surface water affected survival and adult recruitment of a threatened amphibian, the lowland leopard frog (Lithobates yavapaiensis). Across the entire study period, monthly survival of adults ranged from 0.72 to 0.99 during summer and 0.59 to 0.94 during winter and increased with availability of surface water (Z = 7.66; P < 0.01). Recruitment of frogs into the adult age class occurred primarily during winter and ranged from 1.9 to 3.8 individuals/season/pool; like survival, recruitment increased with availability of surface water (Z = 3.67; P < 0.01). Although abundance of frogs varied across seasons and years, we found no evidence of a systematic trend during the 16-year study period. Given the strong influence of surface water on population dynamics of leopard frogs, conservation of many riparian obligates in this and similar arid regions likely depends critically on minimizing threats to structures and ecosystem processes that maintain surface waters. Understanding the influence of surface-water availability on riparian organisms is particularly important because climate change is likely to decrease precipitation and increase ambient temperatures in desert riparian systems, both of which have the potential to alter fundamentally the hydrology of these systems. PMID:26030825

A reexamination of age-related variation in body weight and morphometry of Maryland nutria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherfy, M.H.; Mollett, T.A.; McGowan, K.R.; Daugherty, S.L.

2006-01-01

Age-related variation in morphometry has been documented for many species. Knowledge of growth patterns can be useful for modeling energetics, detecting physiological influences on populations, and predicting age. These benefits have shown value in understanding population dynamics of invasive species, particularly in developing efficient control and eradication programs. However, development and evaluation of descriptive and predictive models is a critical initial step in this process. Accordingly, we used data from necropsies of 1,544 nutria (Myocastor coypus) collected in Maryland, USA, to evaluate the accuracy of previously published models for prediction of nutria age from body weight. Published models underestimated body weights of our animals, especially for ages <3. We used cross-validation procedures to develop and evaluate models for describing nutria growth patterns and for predicting nutria age. We derived models from a randomly selected model-building data set (n = 192-193 M, 217-222 F) and evaluated them with the remaining animals (n = 487-488 M, 642-647 F). We used nonlinear regression to develop Gompertz growth-curve models relating morphometric variables to age. Predicted values of morphometric variables fell within the 95% confidence limits of their true values for most age classes. We also developed predictive models for estimating nutria age from morphometry, using linear regression of log-transformed age on morphometric variables. The evaluation data set corresponded with 95% prediction intervals from the new models. Predictive models for body weight and length provided greater accuracy and less bias than models for foot length and axillary girth. Our growth models accurately described age-related variation in nutria morphometry, and our predictive models provided accurate estimates of ages from morphometry that will be useful for live-captured individuals. Our models offer better accuracy and precision than previously published models, providing a capacity for modeling energetics and growth patterns of Maryland nutria as well as an empirical basis for determining population age structure from live-captured animals.

A Demographic Analysis of American Geophysical Union Membership with Implications for Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhodes, D. D.

2006-12-01

Demographers use population pyramids to characterize the age/gender structure of societal groups. Diagrams of the population of age cohorts for both sexes assume the shape of a pyramid in rapidly expanding groups, having many more young people than older adults. Stable populations have similar numbers of people in age cohorts from infants through middle-age adults. Shrinking populations have fewer children and relatively larger numbers of adults. Demographic analysis of the American Geophysical Union's (AGU) membership reveals significant differences among the numerous specialties and the membership as a whole. The population structure diagram of the total AGU membership is highly asymmetrical with 77.5% male and 22.5% female. Males outnumber females in every age cohort. This is most noticeable among members born prior to 1945. Males belonging to these cohorts make up 16.5% of the total membership, while female members of equivalent age include 0.8% of the total. The largest membership cohort (29% of the total) is comprised of males born between 1950 and 1964, a group that includes both the "baby boom" generation and post-war petroleum exploration expansion. In contrast, the female cohort with birth years from 1970 to 1979 is the largest grouping of women members (8.4% of AGU's membership). Furthermore, women comprise 36% of the members born since 1965, and only 14.5% of those born before 1965. Considered separately, the female membership's age structure is characteristic of a growing population, while the male side is in relative decline. The population structure of the entire membership is mirrored in some specialties, but there are remarkable differences in others. The largest specialty group (hydrology) includes 16.9% of the total AGU membership and has a population structure that differs little from that of the whole organization. Four specialties, Atmospheric Chemistry, Biogeosciences, and Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, and Marine Geochemistry differ significantly from the aggregate membership. The population structures of these groups are pyramidal, indicating a strong potential for growth. Women also comprise more than 30% of each of these groups and outnumber men in some recent cohorts. Growth potential is unevenly distributed throughout AGU's membership with traditional specialties likely to experience significant decline as the older cohorts retire and die. Strongest growth is most likely to occur in recently recognized interdisciplinary specialties, especially those in which women already constitute a significant fraction of the membership.

Human behavior and opportunities for parasite transmission in communities surrounding long-tailed macaque populations in Bali, Indonesia.

PubMed

Lane-DeGraaf, Kelly E; Putra, I G A Arta; Wandia, I Nengah; Rompis, Aida; Hollocher, Hope; Fuentes, Agustin

2014-02-01

Spatial overlap and shared resources between humans and wildlife can exacerbate parasite transmission dynamics. In Bali, Indonesia, an agricultural-religious temple system provides sanctuaries for long-tailed macaques (Macaca fascicularis), concentrating them in areas in close proximity to humans. In this study, we interviewed individuals in communities surrounding 13 macaque populations about their willingness to participate in behaviors that would put them at risk of exposure to gastrointestinal parasites to understand if age, education level, or occupation are significant determinants of exposure behaviors. These exposure risk behaviors and attitudes include fear of macaques, direct contact with macaques, owning pet macaques, hunting and eating macaques, and overlapping water uses. We find that willingness to participate in exposure risk behaviors are correlated with an individual's occupation, age, and/or education level. We also found that because the actual risk of infection varies across populations, activities such as direct macaque contact and pet ownership, could be putting individuals at real risk in certain contexts. Thus, we show that human demographics and social structure can influence willingness to participate in behaviors putting them at increased risk for exposure to parasites. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Young star clusters in nearby molecular clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getman, K. V.; Kuhn, M. A.; Feigelson, E. D.; Broos, P. S.; Bate, M. R.; Garmire, G. P.

2018-06-01

The SFiNCs (Star Formation in Nearby Clouds) project is an X-ray/infrared study of the young stellar populations in 22 star-forming regions with distances ≲ 1 kpc designed to extend our earlier MYStIX (Massive Young Star-Forming Complex Study in Infrared and X-ray) survey of more distant clusters. Our central goal is to give empirical constraints on cluster formation mechanisms. Using parametric mixture models applied homogeneously to the catalogue of SFiNCs young stars, we identify 52 SFiNCs clusters and 19 unclustered stellar structures. The procedure gives cluster properties including location, population, morphology, association with molecular clouds, absorption, age (AgeJX), and infrared spectral energy distribution (SED) slope. Absorption, SED slope, and AgeJX are age indicators. SFiNCs clusters are examined individually, and collectively with MYStIX clusters, to give the following results. (1) SFiNCs is dominated by smaller, younger, and more heavily obscured clusters than MYStIX. (2) SFiNCs cloud-associated clusters have the high ellipticities aligned with their host molecular filaments indicating morphology inherited from their parental clouds. (3) The effect of cluster expansion is evident from the radius-age, radius-absorption, and radius-SED correlations. Core radii increase dramatically from ˜0.08 to ˜0.9 pc over the age range 1-3.5 Myr. Inferred gas removal time-scales are longer than 1 Myr. (4) Rich, spatially distributed stellar populations are present in SFiNCs clouds representing early generations of star formation. An appendix compares the performance of the mixture models and non-parametric minimum spanning tree to identify clusters. This work is a foundation for future SFiNCs/MYStIX studies including disc longevity, age gradients, and dynamical modelling.

On the relationship between cell cycle analysis with ergodic principles and age-structured cell population models.

PubMed

Kuritz, K; Stöhr, D; Pollak, N; Allgöwer, F

2017-02-07

Cyclic processes, in particular the cell cycle, are of great importance in cell biology. Continued improvement in cell population analysis methods like fluorescence microscopy, flow cytometry, CyTOF or single-cell omics made mathematical methods based on ergodic principles a powerful tool in studying these processes. In this paper, we establish the relationship between cell cycle analysis with ergodic principles and age structured population models. To this end, we describe the progression of a single cell through the cell cycle by a stochastic differential equation on a one dimensional manifold in the high dimensional dataspace of cell cycle markers. Given the assumption that the cell population is in a steady state, we derive transformation rules which transform the number density on the manifold to the steady state number density of age structured population models. Our theory facilitates the study of cell cycle dependent processes including local molecular events, cell death and cell division from high dimensional "snapshot" data. Ergodic analysis can in general be applied to every process that exhibits a steady state distribution. By combining ergodic analysis with age structured population models we furthermore provide the theoretic basis for extensions of ergodic principles to distribution that deviate from their steady state. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding the demographic drivers of realized population growth rates.

PubMed

Koons, David N; Arnold, Todd W; Schaub, Michael

2017-10-01

Identifying the demographic parameters (e.g., reproduction, survival, dispersal) that most influence population dynamics can increase conservation effectiveness and enhance ecological understanding. Life table response experiments (LTRE) aim to decompose the effects of change in parameters on past demographic outcomes (e.g., population growth rates). But the vast majority of LTREs and other retrospective population analyses have focused on decomposing asymptotic population growth rates, which do not account for the dynamic interplay between population structure and vital rates that shape realized population growth rates (λt=Nt+1/Nt) in time-varying environments. We provide an empirical means to overcome these shortcomings by merging recently developed "transient life-table response experiments" with integrated population models (IPMs). IPMs allow for the estimation of latent population structure and other demographic parameters that are required for transient LTRE analysis, and Bayesian versions additionally allow for complete error propagation from the estimation of demographic parameters to derivations of realized population growth rates and perturbation analyses of growth rates. By integrating available monitoring data for Lesser Scaup over 60 yr, and conducting transient LTREs on IPM estimates, we found that the contribution of juvenile female survival to long-term variation in realized population growth rates was 1.6 and 3.7 times larger than that of adult female survival and fecundity, respectively. But a persistent long-term decline in fecundity explained 92% of the decline in abundance between 1983 and 2006. In contrast, an improvement in adult female survival drove the modest recovery in Lesser Scaup abundance since 2006, indicating that the most important demographic drivers of Lesser Scaup population dynamics are temporally dynamic. In addition to resolving uncertainty about Lesser Scaup population dynamics, the merger of IPMs with transient LTREs will strengthen our understanding of demography for many species as we aim to conserve biodiversity during an era of non-stationary global change. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Population projection and development of the loreyi leafworm, Mythimna loreyi, as affected by temperature: application of an age-stage, two-sex life table

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The loreyi leafworm, Mythimna (=Leucania) loreyi (Duponchel), has recently emerged as a major pest of grain crops in China. Little is known about its basic biology and ecology, making it difficult to predict its population dynamics. An age-stage, two-sex life table was constructed for this insect wh...

Microsatellite DNA Analysis Revealed a Drastic Genetic Change of Plasmodium vivax Population in the Republic of Korea During 2002 and 2003

PubMed Central

Iwagami, Moritoshi; Hwang, Seung-Young; Kim, So-Hee; Park, So-Jung; Lee, Ga-Young; Matsumoto-Takahashi, Emilie Louise Akiko; Kho, Weon-Gyu; Kano, Shigeyuki

2013-01-01

Background Vivax malaria was successfully eliminated in the Republic of Korea (South Korea) in the late 1970s, but it was found to have re-emerged from 1993. In order to control malaria and evaluate the effectiveness of malaria controls, it is important to develop a spatiotemporal understanding of the genetic structure of the parasite population. Here, we estimated the population structure and temporal dynamics of the transmission of Plasmodium vivax in South Korea by analyzing microsatellite DNA markers of the parasite. Methodology/Principal Findings We analyzed 14 microsatellite DNA loci of the P. vivax genome from 163 South Korean isolates collected from 1994 to 2008. Allelic data were used to analyze linkage disequilibrium (LD), genetic differentiation and population structure, in order to make a detailed estimate of temporal change in the parasite population. The LD analysis showed a gradual decrease in LD levels, while the levels of genetic differentiation between successive years and analysis of the population structure based on the Bayesian approach suggested that a drastic genetic change occurred in the South Korean population during 2002 and 2003. Conclusions/Significance Although relapse and asymptomatic parasite carriage might influence the population structure to some extent, our results suggested the continual introduction of P. vivax into South Korea through other parasite population sources. One possible source, particularly during 2002 and 2003, is North Korea. Molecular epidemiology using microsatellite DNA of the P. vivax population is effective for assessing the population structure and temporal dynamics of parasite transmission; information that can assist in the elimination of vivax malaria in endemic areas. PMID:24205429

Inferring individual-level processes from population-level patterns in cultural evolution

PubMed Central

Wilder, Bryan

2017-01-01

Our species is characterized by a great degree of cultural variation, both within and between populations. Understanding how group-level patterns of culture emerge from individual-level behaviour is a long-standing question in the biological and social sciences. We develop a simulation model capturing demographic and cultural dynamics relevant to human cultural evolution, focusing on the interface between population-level patterns and individual-level processes. The model tracks the distribution of variants of cultural traits across individuals in a population over time, conditioned on different pathways for the transmission of information between individuals. From these data, we obtain theoretical expectations for a range of statistics commonly used to capture population-level characteristics (e.g. the degree of cultural diversity). Consistent with previous theoretical work, our results show that the patterns observed at the level of groups are rooted in the interplay between the transmission pathways and the age structure of the population. We also explore whether, and under what conditions, the different pathways can be distinguished based on their group-level signatures, in an effort to establish theoretical limits to inference. Our results show that the temporal dynamic of cultural change over time retains a stronger signature than the cultural composition of the population at a specific point in time. Overall, the results suggest a shift in focus from identifying the one individual-level process that likely produced the observed data to excluding those that likely did not. We conclude by discussing the implications for empirical studies of human cultural evolution. PMID:28989786

Temporal analysis of genetic structure to assess population dynamics of reintroduced swift foxes.

PubMed

Cullingham, Catherine I; Moehrenschlager, Axel

2013-12-01

Reintroductions are increasingly used to reestablish species, but a paucity of long-term postrelease monitoring has limited understanding of whether and when viable populations subsequently persist. We conducted temporal genetic analyses of reintroduced populations of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) in Canada (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and the United States (Montana). We used samples collected 4 years apart, 17 years from the initiation of the reintroduction, and 3 years after the conclusion of releases. To assess program success, we genotyped 304 hair samples, subsampled from the known range in 2000 and 2001, and 2005 and 2006, at 7 microsatellite loci. We compared diversity, effective population size, and genetic connectivity over time in each population. Diversity remained stable over time and there was evidence of increasing effective population size. We determined population structure in both periods after correcting for differences in sample sizes. The geographic distribution of these populations roughly corresponded with the original release locations, which suggests the release sites had residual effects on the population structure. However, given that both reintroduction sites had similar source populations, habitat fragmentation, due to cropland, may be associated with the population structure we found. Although our results indicate growing, stable populations, future connectivity analyses are warranted to ensure both populations are not subject to negative small-population effects. Our results demonstrate the importance of multiple sampling years to fully capture population dynamics of reintroduced populations. Análisis Temporal de la Estructura Genética para Evaluar la Dinámica Poblacional de Zorros (Vulpes velox) Reintroducidos. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

The effects of host age, host nuclear background and temperature on phenotypic effects of the virulent Wolbachia strain popcorn in Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Reynolds, K Tracy; Thomson, Linda J; Hoffmann, Ary A

2003-07-01

Because of their obligate endosymbiotic nature, Wolbachia strains by necessity are defined by their phenotypic effects upon their host. Nevertheless, studies on the influence of host background and environmental conditions upon the manifestation of Wolbachia effects are relatively uncommon. Here we examine the behavior of the overreplicating Wolbachia strain popcorn in four different Drosophila melanogaster backgrounds at two temperatures. Unlike other strains of Wolbachia in Drosophila, popcorn has a major fitness impact upon its hosts. The rapid proliferation of popcorn causes cells to rupture, resulting in the premature death of adult hosts. Apart from this effect, we found that popcorn delayed development time, and host background influenced both this trait and the rate of mortality associated with infection. Temperature influenced the impact of popcorn upon host mortality, with no reduction in life span occurring in flies reared at 19 degrees. No effect upon fecundity was found. Contrary to earlier reports, popcorn induced high levels of incompatibility when young males were used in tests, and CI levels declined rapidly with male age. The population dynamics of popcorn-type infections will therefore depend on environmental temperature, host background, and the age structure of the population.

Regional demographic trends from long-term studies of saguaro (Carnegiea gigantea) across the northern Sonoran Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pierson, Elizabeth A.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Turner, Raymond M.

2013-01-01

Ten saguaro (Carnegiea gigantea) populations in the northern Sonoran Desert were monitored from 1959 to 2005 to discriminate how climate influences plant growth, abundance, reproductive potential, survivorship, age structure and regeneration trends. Thousands of saguaros were measured to determine site-specific growth rates and survivorship through time. Observed growth rates were used to predict the ages of saguaros and reconstruct local and regional regeneration patterns back to the late 18th century. Both growth rates and degree of branching generally tracked temperature and moisture gradients. Site-specific age-height models explained 89-97% of variance in observed ages, with a slope of nearly one. Regeneration was more consistent at sites in the western (hotter/drier) than eastern (cooler/wetter) sites, which exhibited clear multidecadal variability in regeneration rates. Averaged across the region, saguaro regeneration rates were highest from 1780 to 1860, coincident with wet conditions and high Pinus ponderosa recruitment in the highlands. Milder and wetter winters and protection from livestock grazing likely promoted late 20th century regeneration surges at some sites. Predictions of saguaro population dynamics in the 21st century likely will be confounded by the saguaro's episodic and asynchronous regeneration, continued urbanization, ongoing grass invasions and associated wildfires, and changing climate.

Age-structured mark-recapture analysis: A virtual-population-analysis-based model for analyzing age-structured capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Martell, S.J.D.

2006-01-01

We present a new model to estimate capture probabilities, survival, abundance, and recruitment using traditional Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methods within a standard fisheries virtual population analysis framework. This approach compares the numbers of marked and unmarked fish at age captured in each year of sampling with predictions based on estimated vulnerabilities and abundance in a likelihood function. Recruitment to the earliest age at which fish can be tagged is estimated by using a virtual population analysis method to back-calculate the expected numbers of unmarked fish at risk of capture. By using information from both marked and unmarked animals in a standard fisheries age structure framework, this approach is well suited to the sparse data situations common in long-term capture-recapture programs with variable sampling effort. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

Spatial variation in population growth rate and community structure affects local and regional dynamics.

PubMed

Trzcinski, M Kurtis; Walde, Sandra J; Taylor, Philip D

2008-11-01

1. Theory predicting that populations with high maximum rates of increase (r(max)) will be less stable, and that metapopulations with high average r(max) will be less synchronous, was tested using a small protist, Bodo, that inhabits pitcher plant leaves (Sarracenia purpurea L.). The effects of predators and resources on these relationships were also determined. 2. Abundance data collected for a total of 60 populations of Bodo, over a period of 3 months, at six sites in three bogs in eastern Canada, were used to test these predictions. Mosquitoes were manipulated in half the leaves partway through the season to increase the range of predation rates. 3. Dynamics differed greatly among leaves and sites, but most populations exhibited one or more episodes of rapid increase followed by a population crash. Estimates of r(max) obtained using a linear mixed-effects model, ranged from 1 x 5 to 2 x 7 per day. Resource levels (captured insect) and midge abundances affected r(max). 4. Higher r(max) was associated with greater temporal variability and lower synchrony as predicted. However, in contrast to expectations, populations with higher r(max) also had lower mean abundance and were more suppressed by predators. 5. This study demonstrates that the link between r(max) and temporal variability is key to understanding the dynamics of populations that spend little time near equilibrium, and to predicting and interpreting the effects of community structure on the dynamics of such populations.

Estimating age at a specified length from the von Bertalanffy growth function

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ogle, Derek H.; Isermann, Daniel A.

2017-01-01

Estimating the time required (i.e., age) for fish in a population to reach a specific length (e.g., legal harvest length) is useful for understanding population dynamics and simulating the potential effects of length-based harvest regulations. The age at which a population reaches a specific mean length is typically estimated by fitting a von Bertalanffy growth function to length-at-age data and then rearranging the best-fit equation to solve for age at the specified length. This process precludes the use of standard frequentist methods to compute confidence intervals and compare estimates of age at the specified length among populations. We provide a parameterization of the von Bertalanffy growth function that has age at a specified length as a parameter. With this parameterization, age at a specified length is directly estimated, and standard methods can be used to construct confidence intervals and make among-group comparisons for this parameter. We demonstrate use of the new parameterization with two data sets.

Chemical Evolution and History of Star Formation in the Large Magellanic Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gustafsson, Bengt

1995-07-01

Large scale processes controlling star formation and nucleosynthesis are fundamental but poorly understood. This is especially true for external galaxies. A detailed study of individual main sequence stars in the LMC Bar is proposed. The LMC is close enough to allow this, has considerable spread in stellar ages and a structure permitting identification of stellar populations and their structural features. The Bar presumably plays a dominant role in the chemical and dynamical evolution of the galaxy. Our knowledge is, at best, based on educated guesses. Still, the major population of the Bar is quite old, and many member stars are relatively evolved. The Bar seems to contain stars similar to those of Intermediate to Extreme Pop II in the Galaxy. We want to study the history of star formation, chemical evolution and initial mass function of the population dominating the Bar. We will use field stars close to the turn off point in the HR diagram. From earlier studies, we know that 250-500 such stars are available for uvby photometry in the PC field. We aim at an accuracy of 0.1 -0.2 dex in Me/H and 25% or better in relative ages. This requires an accuracy of about 0.02 mag in the uvby indices, which can be reached, taking into account errors in calibration, flat fielding, guiding and problems due to crowding. For a study of the luminosity function fainter stars will be included as well. Calibration fields are available in Omega Cen and M 67.

Demographic Ageing of the South African Population: Past (1945-1985) and Expected Trends (1985-2035). Report S-190.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hofmeyr, B. E.; Mostert, W. P.

This report presents demographic data for four racial populations in South Africa (Blacks, Whites, Coloureds, and Asians) and examines trends in the aging of each of these populations. The age structure of a population is determined most directly by fertility and mortality. The findings of this report support a general theory to the effect that…

Ballistic aggregation in systems of inelastic particles: Cluster growth, structure, and aging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paul, Subhajit; Das, Subir K.

2017-07-01

We study far-from-equilibrium dynamics in models of freely cooling granular gas and ballistically aggregating compact clusters. For both the cases, from event-driven molecular dynamics simulations, we have presented detailed results on structure and dynamics in space dimensions d =1 and 2. Via appropriate analyses it has been confirmed that the ballistic aggregation mechanism applies in d =1 granular gases as well. Aging phenomena for this mechanism, in both the dimensions, have been studied via the two-time density autocorrelation function. This quantity is demonstrated to exhibit scaling property similar to that in the standard phase transition kinetics. The corresponding functional forms have been quantified and the outcomes have been discussed in connection with the structural properties. Our results on aging establish a more complete equivalence between the granular gas and the ballistic aggregation models in d =1 .

The Preferred Habitat of Dichocoenia stokesi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Indergard, M.; Foster, K.

2016-02-01

Since the 1970s, corals have been exposed to an onslaught of natural and man-made stressors including severe tropical storms, bleaching, disease, and coastal development. As a result of these pressures, several tropical Western Atlantic corals have been labeled as Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) species. The focus of this study was to document the field ecology patterns of the EDGE species, Dichocoenia stokesi (Elliptical Star Coral) around Little Cayman, a remote tropical island which has minimal anthropogenic stressors. Coral Point Count (CPCe) was used to analyze underwater images and to determine the population structures of 47 D. stokesi colonies at 11 sites located near public mooring lines. Colony surface areas ranged between 4-575 m2, indicative of a D. stokesi population with multiple age classes. Twenty common Caribbean coral species were observed within one meter of the D. stokesi colonies. The most common nearest neighbors were Agaricia agarites, Porites asteroides, Siderastrea siderea, S. radians, and Psuedodiploria strigosa; however, the community structures varied significantly as a function of depth. This study provides an ecological snapshot of healthy D. stokesi- centric coral assemblages under "normal" (disturbance-free) environmental conditions. Such baseline demographic data may aid in conserving remaining EDGE populations of D. stokesi and monitoring of population dynamics in response to coral reef stressors.

Population Dynamics of Genetic Regulatory Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Erez

2005-03-01

Unlike common objects in physics, a biological cell processes information. The cell interprets its genome and transforms the genomic information content, through the action of genetic regulatory networks, into proteins which in turn dictate its metabolism, functionality and morphology. Understanding the dynamics of a population of biological cells presents a unique challenge. It requires to link the intracellular dynamics of gene regulation, through the mechanism of cell division, to the level of the population. We present experiments studying adaptive dynamics of populations of genetically homogeneous microorganisms (yeast), grown for long durations under steady conditions. We focus on population dynamics that do not involve random genetic mutations. Our experiments follow the long-term dynamics of the population distributions and allow to quantify the correlations among generations. We focus on three interconnected issues: adaptation of genetically homogeneous populations following environmental changes, selection processes on the population and population variability and expression distributions. We show that while the population exhibits specific short-term responses to environmental inputs, it eventually adapts to a robust steady-state, largely independent of external conditions. Cycles of medium-switch show that the adapted state is imprinted in the population and that this memory is maintained for many generations. To further study population adaptation, we utilize the process of gene recruitment whereby a gene naturally regulated by a specific promoter is placed under a different regulatory system. This naturally occurring process has been recognized as a major driving force in evolution. We have recruited an essential gene to a foreign regulatory network and followed the population long-term dynamics. Rewiring of the regulatory network allows us to expose their complex dynamics and phase space structure.

Population age structure and asset returns: an empirical investigation.

PubMed

Poterba, J M

1998-10-01

"This paper investigates the association between population age structure, particularly the share of the population in the 'prime saving years' 45-60, and the returns on stocks and bonds. The paper is motivated by the claim that the aging of the 'Baby Boom' cohort in the United States is a key factor in explaining the recent rise in asset values. It also addresses the associated claim that asset prices will decline when this large cohort reaches retirement age and begins to reduce its asset holdings. This paper begins by considering household age-asset accumulation profiles. Data from the Survey of Consumer Finances suggest that while cross-sectional age-wealth profiles peak for households in their early 60s, cohort data on the asset ownership of the same households show a much less pronounced peak.... The paper then considers the historical relationship between demographic structure and real returns on Treasury bills, long-term government bonds, and corporate stock. The results do not suggest any robust relationship between demographic structure and asset returns.... The paper concludes by discussing factors such as international capital flows and forward-looking behavior on the part of market participants that could weaken the relationship between age structure and asset returns in a single nation." excerpt

Dynamics of a recolonizing population of black bears in the Ouachita Mountains of Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bales, S.L.; Hellgren, E.C.; Leslie, David M.; Hemphill, J.

2005-01-01

Understanding how populations expand to recolonize former habitats is important to restoration efforts in wildlife management and conservation. Translocation of black bears (Ursus americanus) to Arkansas in the 1950s and 1960s has led to recolonization of former bear range in Oklahoma, with substantial increases in distribution and abundance of the species in Oklahoma over the last 15 years. We studied demographics of black bears in southeastern Oklahoma from May 2001 to November 2002 to provide insight into characteristics of recolonizing populations of large carnivores. We trapped 51 black bears (22 M, 29 F) 77 times and radiocollared 25 female bears. Sex ratios of adults and cubs were skewed toward females, and the age structure was younger than observed in other unharvested populations. Survival of adult females was estimated at 0.9??0.1, and fertility was estimated at 0.77 female young/female/year. Density on the study area was estimated at 0.21 bears/km2 and the current finite growth rate (??) of the study population was estimated to be 1.11/year. Demographic characteristics of the Oklahoma population of black bears were similar to those of other recolonizing populations of large carnivores.

Users Manual for the Dynamic Student Flow Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-07-31

populations within each pipeline are reasonably homogeneous and the pipeline curriculum provides a structured path along which the student must progress...curriculum is structured, student populations are non-homogeneous. They are drawn from diverse sources such as the Naval Aca- demy, NROTC and the Aviation...Officer Candidate program in numbers subjectively determined to provide the best population for subsequent flight training. His- torically, different

Spatial Self-Organization of Vegetation Subject to Climatic Stress—Insights from a System Dynamics—Individual-Based Hybrid Model

PubMed Central

Vincenot, Christian E.; Carteni, Fabrizio; Mazzoleni, Stefano; Rietkerk, Max; Giannino, Francesco

2016-01-01

In simulation models of populations or communities, individual plants have often been obfuscated in favor of aggregated vegetation. This simplification comes with a loss of biological detail and a smoothing out of the demographic noise engendered by stochastic individual-scale processes and heterogeneities, which is significant among others when studying the viability of small populations facing challenging fluctuating environmental conditions. This consideration has motivated the development of precise plant-centered models. The accuracy gained in the representation of plant biology has then, however, often been balanced by the disappearance in models of important plant-soil interactions (esp. water dynamics) due to the inability of most individual-based frameworks to simulate complex continuous processes. In this study, we used a hybrid modeling approach, namely integrated System Dynamics (SD)—Individual-based (IB), to illustrate the importance of individual plant dynamics to explain spatial self-organization of vegetation in arid environments. We analyzed the behavior of this model under different parameter sets either related to individual plant properties (such as seed dispersal distance and reproductive age) or the environment (such as intensity and yearly distribution of precipitation events). While the results of this work confirmed the prevailing theory on vegetation patterning, they also revealed the importance therein of plant-level processes that cannot be rendered by reaction-diffusion models. Initial spatial distribution of plants, reproductive age, and average seed dispersal distance, by impacting patch size and vegetation aggregation, affected pattern formation and population survival under climatic variations. Besides, changes in precipitation regime altered the demographic structure and spatial organization of vegetation patches by affecting plants differentially depending on their age and biomass. Water availability influenced non-linearly total biomass density. Remarkably, lower precipitation resulted in lower mean plant age yet higher mean individual biomass. Moreover, seasonal variations in rainfall greater than a threshold (here, ±0.45 mm from the 1.3 mm baseline) decreased mean total biomass and generated limit cycles, which, in the case of large variations, were preceded by chaotic demographic and spatial behavior. In some cases, peculiar spatial patterns (e.g., rings) were also engendered. On a technical note, the shortcomings of the present model and the benefit of hybrid modeling for virtual investigations in plant science are discussed. PMID:27252707

CONTRIBUTIONS OF SEXUAL AND ASEXUAL REPRODUCTION TO POPULATION STRUCTURE IN THE CLONAL SOFT CORAL, ALCYONIUM RUDYI.

PubMed

McFadden, Catherine S

1997-02-01

Numerous studies of population structure in sessile clonal marine invertebrates have demonstrated low genotypic diversity and nonequilibrium genotype frequencies within local populations that are monopolized by relatively few, highly replicated genets. All of the species studied to date produce planktonic sexual propagules capable of dispersing long distances; despite local genotypic disequilibria, populations are often panmictic over large geographic areas. The population structure paradigm these species represent may not be typical of the majority of clonal invertebrate groups, however, which are believed to produce highly philopatric sexual propagules. I used allozyme variation to examine the population structure of the temperate soft coral, Alcyonium rudyi, a typical clonal species whose sexually produced larvae and asexually produced ramets both have very low dispersal capabilities. Like other clonal plants and invertebrates, the local population dynamics of A. rudyi are dominated by asexual reproduction, and recruitment of new sexually produced genets occurs infrequently. As expected from its philopatric larval stage, estimates of genetic differentiation among populations of A. rudyi were highly significant at all spatial scales examined (mean θ = 0.300 among 20 populations spanning a 1100-km range), suggesting that genetic exchange seldom occurs among populations separated by as little as a few hundred meters. Mapping of multilocus allozyme genotypes within a dense aggregation of A. rudyi ramets confirmed that dispersal of asexual propagules is also very limited: members of the same genet usually remain within < 50 cm of one another on the same rock surface. Unlike most previously studied clonal invertebrates, populations of A. rudyi do not appear to be dominated by a few widespread genets: estimates of genotypic diversity (G o ) within 20 geographically distinct populations did not differ from expectations for outcrossing, sexual populations. Despite theoretical suggestions that philopatric dispersal combined with typically small effective population sizes should promote inbreeding in clonal species, inbreeding does not appear to contribute significantly to the population structure of A. rudyi. Genet genotype frequencies conformed to Hardy-Weinberg expectations in all populations, and inbreeding coefficients (f) were close to zero. In general, the population structure of A. rudyi did not differ significantly from that observed among outcrossing sexual species with philopatric larval dispersal. Age estimates suggest, however, that genets of A. rudyi live for many decades. Genet longevity may promote high genotypic diversity within A. rudyi populations and may be the most important evolutionary consequence of clonal reproduction in this species and the many others that share its dispersal characteristics. © 1997 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Vector-Borne Pathogen and Host Evolution in a Structured Immuno-Epidemiological System.

PubMed

Gulbudak, Hayriye; Cannataro, Vincent L; Tuncer, Necibe; Martcheva, Maia

2017-02-01

Vector-borne disease transmission is a common dissemination mode used by many pathogens to spread in a host population. Similar to directly transmitted diseases, the within-host interaction of a vector-borne pathogen and a host's immune system influences the pathogen's transmission potential between hosts via vectors. Yet there are few theoretical studies on virulence-transmission trade-offs and evolution in vector-borne pathogen-host systems. Here, we consider an immuno-epidemiological model that links the within-host dynamics to between-host circulation of a vector-borne disease. On the immunological scale, the model mimics antibody-pathogen dynamics for arbovirus diseases, such as Rift Valley fever and West Nile virus. The within-host dynamics govern transmission and host mortality and recovery in an age-since-infection structured host-vector-borne pathogen epidemic model. By considering multiple pathogen strains and multiple competing host populations differing in their within-host replication rate and immune response parameters, respectively, we derive evolutionary optimization principles for both pathogen and host. Invasion analysis shows that the [Formula: see text] maximization principle holds for the vector-borne pathogen. For the host, we prove that evolution favors minimizing case fatality ratio (CFR). These results are utilized to compute host and pathogen evolutionary trajectories and to determine how model parameters affect evolution outcomes. We find that increasing the vector inoculum size increases the pathogen [Formula: see text], but can either increase or decrease the pathogen virulence (the host CFR), suggesting that vector inoculum size can contribute to virulence of vector-borne diseases in distinct ways.

Optimal Harvesting in an Age-Structured Predator-Prey Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fister, K. Renee; Lenhart, Suzanne

2006-06-15

We investigate optimal harvesting control in a predator-prey model in which the prey population is represented by a first-order partial differential equation with age-structure and the predator population is represented by an ordinary differential equation in time. The controls are the proportions of the populations to be harvested, and the objective functional represents the profit from harvesting. The existence and uniqueness of the optimal control pair are established.

Age-related changes in the topological organization of the white matter structural connectome across the human lifespan.

PubMed

Zhao, Tengda; Cao, Miao; Niu, Haijing; Zuo, Xi-Nian; Evans, Alan; He, Yong; Dong, Qi; Shu, Ni

2015-10-01

Lifespan is a dynamic process with remarkable changes in brain structure and function. Previous neuroimaging studies have indicated age-related microstructural changes in specific white matter tracts during development and aging. However, the age-related alterations in the topological architecture of the white matter structural connectome across the human lifespan remain largely unknown. Here, a cohort of 113 healthy individuals (ages 9-85) with both diffusion and structural MRI acquisitions were examined. For each participant, the high-resolution white matter structural networks were constructed by deterministic fiber tractography among 1024 parcellation units and were quantified with graph theoretical analyses. The global network properties, including network strength, cost, topological efficiency, and robustness, followed an inverted U-shaped trajectory with a peak age around the third decade. The brain areas with the most significantly nonlinear changes were located in the prefrontal and temporal cortices. Different brain regions exhibited heterogeneous trajectories: the posterior cingulate and lateral temporal cortices displayed prolonged maturation/degeneration compared with the prefrontal cortices. Rich-club organization was evident across the lifespan, whereas hub integration decreased linearly with age, especially accompanied by the loss of frontal hubs and their connections. Additionally, age-related changes in structural connections were predominantly located within and between the prefrontal and temporal modules. Finally, based on the graph metrics of structural connectome, accurate predictions of individual age were obtained (r = 0.77). Together, the data indicated a dynamic topological organization of the brain structural connectome across human lifespan, which may provide possible structural substrates underlying functional and cognitive changes with age. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Concepts and tools for predictive modeling of microbial dynamics.

PubMed

Bernaerts, Kristel; Dens, Els; Vereecken, Karen; Geeraerd, Annemie H; Standaert, Arnout R; Devlieghere, Frank; Debevere, Johan; Van Impe, Jan F

2004-09-01

Description of microbial cell (population) behavior as influenced by dynamically changing environmental conditions intrinsically needs dynamic mathematical models. In the past, major effort has been put into the modeling of microbial growth and inactivation within a constant environment (static models). In the early 1990s, differential equation models (dynamic models) were introduced in the field of predictive microbiology. Here, we present a general dynamic model-building concept describing microbial evolution under dynamic conditions. Starting from an elementary model building block, the model structure can be gradually complexified to incorporate increasing numbers of influencing factors. Based on two case studies, the fundamentals of both macroscopic (population) and microscopic (individual) modeling approaches are revisited. These illustrations deal with the modeling of (i) microbial lag under variable temperature conditions and (ii) interspecies microbial interactions mediated by lactic acid production (product inhibition). Current and future research trends should address the need for (i) more specific measurements at the cell and/or population level, (ii) measurements under dynamic conditions, and (iii) more comprehensive (mechanistically inspired) model structures. In the context of quantitative microbial risk assessment, complexity of the mathematical model must be kept under control. An important challenge for the future is determination of a satisfactory trade-off between predictive power and manageability of predictive microbiology models.

Work Ability: using structural equation modeling to assess the effects of aging, health and work on the population of Brazilian municipal employees.

PubMed

Alcântara, Marcus A; Sampaio, Rosana F; Assunção, Ada Ávila; Silva, Fabiana C Martins

2014-01-01

The Work Ability Model has a holistic structure that incorporates individual characteristics, work-related factors and life outside of work. The model has been explored in the context of Finland but still needs to be applied in other countries. The aim of this study was to examine the relationships between age, health, work and work ability in a sample of Brazilian municipal employees. A sample of 5,646 workers answered a web-survey questionnaire that collected information about socio-demographics, health, work characteristics and work ability. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to examine the simultaneous relationships between the variables that comprise the Work Ability Model. The sample was predominantly female (68.0%), between 30 and 49 years old (60.0%) and highly educated (66.0%). SEM produced good fit indexes that supported the Work Ability Model. Age was positively related to work ability and negatively related to health. Health and work characteristics positively influenced work ability. The results produced additional support for the conceptualization of work ability as a complex and dynamic phenomenon: a system composed of an individual and various elements of his/her work interact in time and space in a nonlinear way.

EVALUATION OF THE EFFICACY OF EXTRAPOLATION POPULATION MODELING TO PREDICT THE DYNAMICS OF AMERICAMYSIS BAHIA POPULATIONS IN THE LABORATORY

EPA Science Inventory

An age-classified projection matrix model has been developed to extrapolate the chronic (28-35d) demographic responses of Americamysis bahia (formerly Mysidopsis bahia) to population-level response. This study was conducted to evaluate the efficacy of this model for predicting t...

The World Population Dilemma.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Population Reference Bureau, Inc., Washington, DC.

This book is the third in a series published by the Population Reference Bureau aimed at illuminating the facts and consequences of human population dynamics for secondary and college-age students. Many illustrations, charts and graphs are included in this volume to help the reader grasp a number of the current ideas and concepts that are used in…

NMR Spectroscopy and Molecular Dynamics Simulation of r(CCGCUGCGG)2 Reveal a Dynamic UU Internal Loop Found in Myotonic Dystrophy Type 1†

PubMed Central

Parkesh, Raman; Fountain, Matthew; Disney, Matthew D.

2011-01-01

The NMR structure of an RNA with a copy of the 5′CUG/3′GUC motif found in the triplet repeating disorder myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1) is disclosed. The lowest energy conformation of the UU pair is a single hydrogen bonded structure; however, the UU protons undergo exchange indicating structural dynamics. Molecular dynamics simulations show that the single hydrogen bonded structure is the most populated one but the UU pair interconverts between 0, 1, and 2 hydrogen bonded pairs. These studies have implications for the recognition of the DM1 RNA by small molecules and proteins. PMID:21204525

Dynamic spectral structure specifies vowels for children and adultsa

PubMed Central

Nittrouer, Susan

2008-01-01

When it comes to making decisions regarding vowel quality, adults seem to weight dynamic syllable structure more strongly than static structure, although disagreement exists over the nature of the most relevant kind of dynamic structure: spectral change intrinsic to the vowel or structure arising from movements between consonant and vowel constrictions. Results have been even less clear regarding the signal components children use in making vowel judgments. In this experiment, listeners of four different ages (adults, and 3-, 5-, and 7-year-old children) were asked to label stimuli that sounded either like steady-state vowels or like CVC syllables which sometimes had middle sections masked by coughs. Four vowel contrasts were used, crossed for type (front/back or closed/open) and consonant context (strongly or only slightly constraining of vowel tongue position). All listeners recognized vowel quality with high levels of accuracy in all conditions, but children were disproportionately hampered by strong coarticulatory effects when only steady-state formants were available. Results clarified past studies, showing that dynamic structure is critical to vowel perception for all aged listeners, but particularly for young children, and that it is the dynamic structure arising from vocal-tract movement between consonant and vowel constrictions that is most important. PMID:17902868

Development of conceptual ecological models linking management of the Missouri River to pallid sturgeon population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Parsley, Michael J.; Annis, Mandy L.; Colvin, Michael E.; Welker, Timothy L.; James, Daniel A.

2015-01-01

This report documents the process of developing and refining conceptual ecological models (CEMs) for linking river management to pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) population dynamics in the Missouri River. The refined CEMs are being used in the Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis to organize, document, and formalize an understanding of pallid sturgeon population responses to past and future management alternatives. The general form of the CEMs, represented by a population-level model and component life-stage models, was determined in workshops held in the summer of 2013. Subsequently, the Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis team designed a general hierarchical structure for the component models, refined the graphical structure, and reconciled variation among the components and between models developed for the upper river (Upper Missouri & Yellowstone Rivers) and the lower river (Missouri River downstream from Gavins Point Dam). Importance scores attributed to the relations between primary biotic characteristics and survival were used to define a candidate set of working dominant hypotheses about pallid sturgeon population dynamics. These CEMs are intended to guide research and adaptive-management actions to benefit pallid sturgeon populations in the Missouri River.

[Modelling of selection acting upon the pleioptropic locus in an asynchronous population].

PubMed

Zhdanov, O L; Frisman, E Ia

2014-08-01

We created and examined a mathematical model describing the size and genetic composition dynamics in a population with two age classes, where the survival of both zygotes and adult individuals is determined by one pleioptropic locus. Even under present limitations, as the outside effects of a complex multigenic system are reduced to the case of single locus, our model demonstrates a wide range of different evolutionary scenarios for possible changes in the population dynamics. An increase in the reproductive potential and survival is accompanied by a transition from stable to oscillating population numbers. However, the evolutionary growth of these parameters may be nonmonotonic and may fluctuate significantly. In the case of antagonistic pleioptropy, an increase in one of these parameters usually leads to a predictable decrease in the other. This, in turn, may even stabilize the numbers and genetic compositions of the age groups. We demonstrated that selection acting on later stages of the life cycle is accompanied by destabilization of the Hardy-Weinberg equilibriums that link allele and genotype frequencies. We obtained a balance ratio, which allowed us to compare the combined fitness of the genotypes and to demonstrate that selection leads to the exclusion of the least adapted genotypes. Initial conditionsmay in some cases determine the genetic composition and pattern of population size dynamics.

Population models for passerine birds: structure, parameterization, and analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Noon, B.R.; Sauer, J.R.; McCullough, D.R.; Barrett, R.H.

1992-01-01

Population models have great potential as management tools, as they use infonnation about the life history of a species to summarize estimates of fecundity and survival into a description of population change. Models provide a framework for projecting future populations, determining the effects of management decisions on future population dynamics, evaluating extinction probabilities, and addressing a variety of questions of ecological and evolutionary interest. Even when insufficient information exists to allow complete identification of the model, the modelling procedure is useful because it forces the investigator to consider the life history of the species when determining what parameters should be estimated from field studies and provides a context for evaluating the relative importance of demographic parameters. Models have been little used in the study of the population dynamics of passerine birds because of: (1) widespread misunderstandings of the model structures and parameterizations, (2) a lack of knowledge of life histories of many species, (3) difficulties in obtaining statistically reliable estimates of demographic parameters for most passerine species, and (4) confusion about functional relationships among demographic parameters. As a result, studies of passerine demography are often designed inappropriately and fail to provide essential data. We review appropriate models for passerine bird populations and illustrate their possible uses in evaluating the effects of management or other environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify parameters that must be estimated from field data, briefly review existing statistical methods for obtaining valid estimates, and evaluate the present status of knowledge of these parameters.

Host age modulates within-host parasite competition

PubMed Central

Izhar, Rony; Routtu, Jarkko; Ben-Ami, Frida

2015-01-01

In many host populations, one of the most striking differences among hosts is their age. While parasite prevalence differences in relation to host age are well known, little is known on how host age impacts ecological and evolutionary dynamics of diseases. Using two clones of the water flea Daphnia magna and two clones of its bacterial parasite Pasteuria ramosa, we examined how host age at exposure influences within-host parasite competition and virulence. We found that multiply-exposed hosts were more susceptible to infection and suffered higher mortality than singly-exposed hosts. Hosts oldest at exposure were least often infected and vice versa. Furthermore, we found that in young multiply-exposed hosts competition was weak, allowing coexistence and transmission of both parasite clones, whereas in older multiply-exposed hosts competitive exclusion was observed. Thus, age-dependent parasite exposure and host demography (age structure) could together play an important role in mediating parasite evolution. At the individual level, our results demonstrate a previously unnoticed interaction of the host's immune system with host age, suggesting that the specificity of immune function changes as hosts mature. Therefore, evolutionary models of parasite virulence might benefit from incorporating age-dependent epidemiological parameters. PMID:25994010

Permanent hypopituitarism is rare after structural traumatic brain injury in early childhood.

PubMed

Heather, Natasha L; Jefferies, Craig; Hofman, Paul L; Derraik, José G B; Brennan, Christine; Kelly, Patrick; Hamill, James K M; Jones, Rhys G; Rowe, Deborah L; Cutfield, Wayne S

2012-02-01

We sought to determine the incidence of permanent hypopituitarism in a potentially high-risk group: young children after structural traumatic brain injury (TBI). We conducted a cross-sectional study with longitudinal follow-up. Dynamic tests of pituitary function (GH and ACTH) were performed in all subjects and potential abnormalities critically evaluated. Puberty was clinically staged; baseline thyroid function, prolactin, IGF-I, serum sodium, and osmolality were compared with age-matched data. Diagnosis of GH deficiency was based on an integrated assessment of stimulated GH peak (<5 μg/liter suggestive of deficiency), IGF-I, and growth pattern. ACTH deficiency was diagnosed based on a subnormal response to two serial Synacthen tests (peak cortisol <500 nmol/liter) and a metyrapone test. We studied 198 survivors of structural TBI sustained in early childhood (112 male, age at injury 1.7 ± 1.5 yr) 6.5 ± 3.2 yr after injury. Sixty-four of the injuries (33%) were inflicted and 134 (68%) accidental. Two participants had developed precocious puberty, which is within the expected background population rate. Peak stimulated GH was subnormal in 16 participants (8%), in the context of normal IGF-I and normal growth. Stimulated peak cortisol was low in 17 (8%), but all had normal ACTH function on follow-up. One participant had a transient low serum T(4). Therefore, no cases of hypopituitarism were recorded. Permanent hypopituitarism is rare after both inflicted and accidental structural TBI in early childhood. Precocious puberty was the only pituitary hormone abnormality found, but the prevalence did not exceed that of the normal population.

Comparative effectiveness of different strategies of oral cholera vaccination in bangladesh: a modeling study.

PubMed

Dimitrov, Dobromir T; Troeger, Christopher; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M; Chao, Dennis L

2014-12-01

Killed, oral cholera vaccines have proven safe and effective, and several large-scale mass cholera vaccination efforts have demonstrated the feasibility of widespread deployment. This study uses a mathematical model of cholera transmission in Bangladesh to examine the effectiveness of potential vaccination strategies. We developed an age-structured mathematical model of cholera transmission and calibrated it to reproduce the dynamics of cholera in Matlab, Bangladesh. We used the model to predict the effectiveness of different cholera vaccination strategies over a period of 20 years. We explored vaccination programs that targeted one of three increasingly focused age groups (the entire vaccine-eligible population of age one year and older, children of ages 1 to 14 years, or preschoolers of ages 1 to 4 years) and that could occur either as campaigns recurring every five years or as continuous ongoing vaccination efforts. Our modeling results suggest that vaccinating 70% of the population would avert 90% of cholera cases in the first year but that campaign and continuous vaccination strategies differ in effectiveness over 20 years. Maintaining 70% coverage of the population would be sufficient to prevent sustained transmission of endemic cholera in Matlab, while vaccinating periodically every five years is less effective. Selectively vaccinating children 1-14 years old would prevent the most cholera cases per vaccine administered in both campaign and continuous strategies. We conclude that continuous mass vaccination would be more effective against endemic cholera than periodic campaigns. Vaccinating children averts more cases per dose than vaccinating all age groups, although vaccinating only children is unlikely to control endemic cholera in Bangladesh. Careful consideration must be made before generalizing these results to other regions.

Comparative Effectiveness of Different Strategies of Oral Cholera Vaccination in Bangladesh: A Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Dimitrov, Dobromir T.; Troeger, Christopher; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M.; Chao, Dennis L.

2014-01-01

Background Killed, oral cholera vaccines have proven safe and effective, and several large-scale mass cholera vaccination efforts have demonstrated the feasibility of widespread deployment. This study uses a mathematical model of cholera transmission in Bangladesh to examine the effectiveness of potential vaccination strategies. Methods & Findings We developed an age-structured mathematical model of cholera transmission and calibrated it to reproduce the dynamics of cholera in Matlab, Bangladesh. We used the model to predict the effectiveness of different cholera vaccination strategies over a period of 20 years. We explored vaccination programs that targeted one of three increasingly focused age groups (the entire vaccine-eligible population of age one year and older, children of ages 1 to 14 years, or preschoolers of ages 1 to 4 years) and that could occur either as campaigns recurring every five years or as continuous ongoing vaccination efforts. Our modeling results suggest that vaccinating 70% of the population would avert 90% of cholera cases in the first year but that campaign and continuous vaccination strategies differ in effectiveness over 20 years. Maintaining 70% coverage of the population would be sufficient to prevent sustained transmission of endemic cholera in Matlab, while vaccinating periodically every five years is less effective. Selectively vaccinating children 1–14 years old would prevent the most cholera cases per vaccine administered in both campaign and continuous strategies. Conclusions We conclude that continuous mass vaccination would be more effective against endemic cholera than periodic campaigns. Vaccinating children averts more cases per dose than vaccinating all age groups, although vaccinating only children is unlikely to control endemic cholera in Bangladesh. Careful consideration must be made before generalizing these results to other regions. PMID:25473851

Aging by epigenetics-A consequence of chromatin damage?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sedivy, John M.; Banumathy, Gowrishankar; Adams, Peter D.

Chromatin structure is not fixed. Instead, chromatin is dynamic and is subject to extensive developmental and age-associated remodeling. In some cases, this remodeling appears to counter the aging and age-associated diseases, such as cancer, and extend organismal lifespan. However, stochastic non-deterministic changes in chromatin structure might, over time, also contribute to the break down of nuclear, cell and tissue function, and consequently aging and age-associated diseases.

[The demographic aging of the Austrian population: on the long-term changes in the age structure in Austria].

PubMed

Kytir, J

1995-01-01

"The Austrian population is presently in the middle of its age structure transition which started with World War I and will continue until the 40s of the next century. Within this time period the number of people aged 60 years or over will increase from about half a million to 2.8 million (1995: 1.6 million) and the share of the elderly will mount from about 9 percent to more than 35 percent (1995: 20 percent). The present article points out the demographic causes for population aging asking whether high fertility and/or high numbers of migrants can stop the aging process. Different measurements of demographic aging in Austria (share of various age groups, mean age and median age, dependency ratios, several aging indices) are calculated for the time period 1869 to 2050. Special attention is paid to regional differences within Austria and to changes of the sex ratio at older ages over time." (EXCERPT)

Neighborhood Age Structure and its Implications for Health

PubMed Central

2006-01-01

Age structure at the neighborhood level is rarely considered in contextual studies of health. However, age structure can play a critical role in shaping community life, the availability of resources, and the opportunities for social engagement—all factors that, research suggests, have direct and indirect effects on health. Age structure can be theorized as a compositional effect and as a contextual effect. In addition, the dynamic nature of age structure and the utility of a life course perspective as applied to neighborhood effects research merits attention. Four Chicago neighborhoods are summarized to illustrate how age structure varies across small space, suggesting that neighborhood age structure should be considered a key structural covariate in contextual research on health. Considering age structure implies incorporating not only meaningful cut points for important age groups (e.g., proportion 65 years and over) but attention to the shape of the distribution as well. PMID:16865558

Demographic Changes in Germany up to 2060 - Consequences for Blood Donation.

PubMed

Ehling, Manfred; Pötzsch, Olga

2010-06-01

This paper outlines the results of a most recent model calculation regarding the structure and development of Germany's population by 2060 with the aim to provide basic demographic data for the future provision of blood components to the population. Firstly, the paper describes the assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and Germany's balance of immigration and emigration which formed the basis for the projection. The following part discusses the results, quantifies future changes in the size and age structure of Germany's population, and illustrates the effects of demographic trends which can be identified from today's point of view. The number of potential blood donors will decline in absolute and relative terms (related to the total population and the age group of 'non-donors') in the future. This holds true for both the age bracket of 18 to 68 years and the alternatively chosen age group of 17 to 70 years. Depending on the variant, the population of blood donation age will decrease by one quarter to one third until 2060.

Survival and Population Dynamics of the Marabou Stork in an Isolated Population, Swaziland

PubMed Central

Monadjem, Ara; Kane, Adam; Botha, Andre; Dalton, Desire; Kotze, Antoinette

2012-01-01

Investigating the ecology of long lived birds is particularly challenging owing to the time scales involved. Here an analysis is presented of a long term study of the survival and population dynamics of the marabou stork (Leptoptilos crumeniferus), a wide ranging scavenging bird from Sub-Saharan Africa. Using resightings data of tagged nestlings and free flying birds we show that the stork population can be divided into three general life stages with unique survival probabilities and fecundities. Fecundity of the storks is inversely related to rainfall during their breeding season. Corroborative evidence for a metapopulation structure is discussed highlighting the impact of the Swaziland birds on the ecology of the species in the broader region. The importance of tag loss or illegibility over time is highlighted. Clearly, any attempt at conserving a species will require a detailed understanding of its population structure, of the sort examined here. PMID:23029517

Evidence of counter-gradient growth in western pond turtles (Actinemys marmorata) across thermal gradients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snover, Melissa; Adams, Michael J.; Ashton, Donald T.; Bettaso, Jamie B.; Welsh, Hartwell H.

2015-01-01

Given the importance of size and age at reproductive maturity to population dynamics, this information on counter-gradient growth will improve our ability to understand and predict the consequences of dam operations for downstream turtle populations.

[Dynamics of parasite communities in an age series of Arctic Cisco Coregonus migratorius (Georgi, 1775)].

PubMed

Dugarov, Zh N; Pronin, N M

2013-01-01

Parasite communities of Arctic cisco from Chivyrkui Bay of Lake Baikal have been analyzed at levels of a host individual (infracommunity), a individual age group of a host-(assemblages of infracommunities), and a host population (component community). Significant positive correlations of parameters of species richness (number of parasite species, Margalef and Menhinick indices) with the age of Arctic cisco were recorded only at the level of parasite inffacommunities. The absence of linear positive correlations between the parameters of species richness and the age of Arctic cisco at the level of assemblages of parasite infracommunities were revealed for the first time for fish of Lake Baikal. The peculiarity of the dynamics of parasite communities of. Arctic cisco is determined by specific features of the host physiology and ecology, primarily by the age dynamics of the feeding spectrum.

Psychology and Population: An Overview.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fawcett, James T.

Psychology and Population is defined as the study of individual dispositions and behavior that affect the size, structure and dispersion of the population, and the way in which acts of individuals enter into the dynamics of population change. Even this definition was viewed as inadequate, ignoring, as it does, the reciprocal effect of population…

Folding molecular dynamics simulations accurately predict the effect of mutations on the stability and structure of a vammin-derived peptide.

PubMed

Koukos, Panagiotis I; Glykos, Nicholas M

2014-08-28

Folding molecular dynamics simulations amounting to a grand total of 4 μs of simulation time were performed on two peptides (with native and mutated sequences) derived from loop 3 of the vammin protein and the results compared with the experimentally known peptide stabilities and structures. The simulations faithfully and accurately reproduce the major experimental findings and show that (a) the native peptide is mostly disordered in solution, (b) the mutant peptide has a well-defined and stable structure, and (c) the structure of the mutant is an irregular β-hairpin with a non-glycine β-bulge, in excellent agreement with the peptide's known NMR structure. Additionally, the simulations also predict the presence of a very small β-hairpin-like population for the native peptide but surprisingly indicate that this population is structurally more similar to the structure of the native peptide as observed in the vammin protein than to the NMR structure of the isolated mutant peptide. We conclude that, at least for the given system, force field, and simulation protocol, folding molecular dynamics simulations appear to be successful in reproducing the experimentally accessible physical reality to a satisfactory level of detail and accuracy.

Temporal changes in kin structure through a population cycle in a territorial bird, the red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus.

PubMed

Piertney, Stuart B; Lambin, Xavier; Maccoll, Andrew D C; Lock, Kerry; Bacon, Philip J; Dallas, John F; Leckie, Fiona; Mougeot, Francois; Racey, Paul A; Redpath, Steve; Moss, Robert

2008-05-01

Populations of red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus) undergo regular multiannual cycles in abundance. The 'kinship hypothesis' posits that such cycles are caused by changes in kin structure among territorial males producing delayed density-dependent changes in aggressiveness, which in turn influence recruitment and regulate density. The kinship hypothesis makes several specific predictions about the levels of kinship, aggressiveness and recruitment through a population cycle: (i) kin structure will build up during the increase phase of a cycle, but break down prior to peak density; (ii) kin structure influences aggressiveness, such that there will be a negative relationship between kinship and aggressiveness over the years; (iii) as aggressiveness regulates recruitment and density, there will be a negative relationship between aggressiveness in one year and both recruitment and density in the next; (iv) as kin structure influences recruitment via an affect on aggressiveness, there will be a positive relationship between kinship in one year and recruitment the next. Here we test these predictions through the course of an 8-year cycle in a natural population of red grouse in northeast Scotland, using microsatellite DNA markers to resolve changing patterns of kin structure, and supra-orbital comb height of grouse as an index of aggressiveness. Both kin structure and aggressiveness were dynamic through the course of the cycle, and changing patterns were entirely consistent with the expectations of the kinship hypothesis. Results are discussed in relation to potential drivers of population regulation and implications of dynamic kin structure for population genetics.

Historical habitat connectivity affects current genetic structure in a grassland species.

PubMed

Münzbergová, Z; Cousins, S A O; Herben, T; Plačková, I; Mildén, M; Ehrlén, J

2013-01-01

Many recent studies have explored the effects of present and past landscape structure on species distribution and diversity. However, we know little about the effects of past landscape structure on distribution of genetic diversity within and between populations of a single species. Here we describe the relationship between present and past landscape structure (landscape connectivity and habitat size estimated from historical maps) and current genetic structure in a perennial herb, Succisa pratensis. We used allozymes as co-dominant markers to estimate genetic diversity and deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in 31 populations distributed within a 5 km(2) agricultural landscape. The results showed that current genetic diversity of populations was related to habitat suitability, habitat age, habitat size and habitat connectivity in the past. The effects of habitat age and past connectivity on genetic diversity were in most cases also significant after taking the current landscape structure into account. Moreover, current genetic similarity between populations was affected by past connectivity after accounting for current landscape structure. In both cases, the oldest time layer (1850) was the most informative. Most populations showed heterozygote excess, indicating disequilibrium due to recent gene flow or selection against homozygotes. These results suggest that habitat age and past connectivity are important determinants of distribution of genetic diversity between populations at a scale of a few kilometres. Landscape history may significantly contribute to our understanding of distribution of current genetic structure within species and the genetic structure may be used to better understand landscape history, even at a small scale. © 2012 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Memory Effect Manifested by a Boson Peak in Metallic Glass.

PubMed

Luo, P; Li, Y Z; Bai, H Y; Wen, P; Wang, W H

2016-04-29

We explore the correlation between a boson peak and structural relaxation in a typical metallic glass. Consistent with enthalpy recovery, a boson peak shows a memory effect in an aging-and-scan procedure. Single-step isothermal aging produces a monotonic decrease of enthalpy and boson peak intensity; for double-step isothermal aging, both enthalpy and boson peak intensity experience, coincidently, an incipient increase to a maximum and a subsequent decrease toward the equilibrium state. Our results indicate a direct link between slow structural relaxation and fast boson peak dynamics, which presents a profound understanding of the two dynamic behaviors in glass.

Integration of Harvest and Time-to-Event Data Used to Estimate Demographic Parameters for White-tailed Deer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norton, Andrew S.

An integral component of managing game species is an understanding of population dynamics and relative abundance. Harvest data are frequently used to estimate abundance of white-tailed deer. Unless harvest age-structure is representative of the population age-structure and harvest vulnerability remains constant from year to year, these data alone are of limited value. Additional model structure and auxiliary information has accommodated this shortcoming. Specifically, integrated age-at-harvest (AAH) state-space population models can formally combine multiple sources of data, and regularization via hierarchical model structure can increase flexibility of model parameters. I collected known fates data, which I evaluated and used to inform trends in survival parameters for an integrated AAH model. I used temperature and snow depth covariates to predict survival outside of the hunting season, and opening weekend temperature and percent of corn harvest covariates to predict hunting season survival. When auxiliary empirical data were unavailable for the AAH model, moderately informative priors provided sufficient information for convergence and parameter estimates. The AAH model was most sensitive to errors in initial abundance, but this error was calibrated after 3 years. Among vital rates, the AAH model was most sensitive to reporting rates (percentage of mortality during the hunting season related to harvest). The AAH model, using only harvest data, was able to track changing abundance trends due to changes in survival rates even when prior models did not inform these changes (i.e. prior models were constant when truth varied). I also compared AAH model results with estimates from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WIDNR). Trends in abundance estimates from both models were similar, although AAH model predictions were systematically higher than WIDNR estimates in the East study area. When I incorporated auxiliary information (i.e. integrated AAH model) about survival outside the hunting season from known fates data, predicted trends appeared more closely related to what was expected. Disagreements between the AAH model and WIDNR estimates in the East were likely related to biased predictions for reporting and survival rates from the AAH model.

Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method.

PubMed

Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz; Smith, Peter W F; Bijak, Jakub; Raymer, James; Forster, Jonathan J

2015-06-01

In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sources of information. To illustrate, we analyze time series data for the United Kingdom and forecast the components of population change to the year 2024. We also compare the results obtained from different forecast models for age-specific fertility, mortality, and migration. In doing so, we demonstrate the flexibility and advantages of adopting the Bayesian approach for population forecasting and highlight areas where this work could be extended.

[Population dynamics of thrushes and seasonal resource partition].

PubMed

Burskiĭ, O V; Demidova, E Iu; Morkovin, A A

2014-01-01

We studied seasonal population dynamics in birds using four thrush species from the Yenisei middle taiga region as an example. Long-term data on bird route censuses, capture-mark-recapture, and nest observa- tions were incorporated in the analysis. Particularly, methodological problems that complicate a direct comparison between assessed numbers at different phases of the annual cycle are considered. The integrated analysis of the results allowed comparing changes in numbers, energy expenditure, age structure, migrating status, and density distribution of selected populations during the snowless period and relating them to seasonal changes in food resource abundance. Thrush population numbers within the breeding range, and their energy consumption in the Yenisei middle taiga proportionately reflect the seasonal change in abundance of food resources. The compliance between resource intake and carrying capacity of the environment is attained by: timing of arrival and departure regarding to the species' range of tolerance; change in numbers as a result of reproduction and mortality; change in numbers due to habitat changes and long-distance movements; increasing energetic expenditures during reproduction and molt; timing, intensity and replication of nesting attempts; timing of molt and proportion of molting individuals in a population; individual variations of the annual cycle. Reproductive growth of local bird populations is not fast enough to catch up with seasonal growth of ecosystems productivity. Superabundance of invertebrates at the peak of the season offers a temporal niche which, on the one hand, is suitable for species capable of diet switching, while, on the other hand, may be used by specialized consumers, namely tropical migrants for whom, at high resource level, a shortened breeding period suffices.

Vigorous dynamics underlie a stable population of the endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia in Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia.

PubMed

Sharma, Koustubh; Bayrakcismith, Rana; Tumursukh, Lkhagvasumberel; Johansson, Orjan; Sevger, Purevsuren; McCarthy, Tom; Mishra, Charudutt

2014-01-01

Population monitoring programmes and estimation of vital rates are key to understanding the mechanisms of population growth, decline or stability, and are important for effective conservation action. We report, for the first time, the population trends and vital rates of the endangered snow leopard based on camera trapping over four years in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. We used robust design multi-season mark-recapture analysis to estimate the trends in abundance, sex ratio, survival probability and the probability of temporary emigration and immigration for adult and young snow leopards. The snow leopard population remained constant over most of the study period, with no apparent growth (λ = 1.08+-0.25). Comparison of model results with the "known population" of radio-collared snow leopards suggested high accuracy in our estimates. Although seemingly stable, vigorous underlying dynamics were evident in this population, with the adult sex ratio shifting from being male-biased to female-biased (1.67 to 0.38 males per female) during the study. Adult survival probability was 0.82 (SE+-0.08) and that of young was 0.83 (SE+-0.15) and 0.77 (SE +-0.2) respectively, before and after the age of 2 years. Young snow leopards showed a high probability of temporary emigration and immigration (0.6, SE +-0.19 and 0.68, SE +-0.32 before and after the age of 2 years) though not the adults (0.02 SE+-0.07). While the current female-bias in the population and the number of cubs born each year seemingly render the study population safe, the vigorous dynamics suggests that the situation can change quickly. The reduction in the proportion of male snow leopards may be indicative of continuing anthropogenic pressures. Our work reiterates the importance of monitoring both the abundance and population dynamics of species for effective conservation.

Bipartite Graphs as Models of Population Structures in Evolutionary Multiplayer Games

PubMed Central

Peña, Jorge; Rochat, Yannick

2012-01-01

By combining evolutionary game theory and graph theory, “games on graphs” study the evolutionary dynamics of frequency-dependent selection in population structures modeled as geographical or social networks. Networks are usually represented by means of unipartite graphs, and social interactions by two-person games such as the famous prisoner’s dilemma. Unipartite graphs have also been used for modeling interactions going beyond pairwise interactions. In this paper, we argue that bipartite graphs are a better alternative to unipartite graphs for describing population structures in evolutionary multiplayer games. To illustrate this point, we make use of bipartite graphs to investigate, by means of computer simulations, the evolution of cooperation under the conventional and the distributed N-person prisoner’s dilemma. We show that several implicit assumptions arising from the standard approach based on unipartite graphs (such as the definition of replacement neighborhoods, the intertwining of individual and group diversity, and the large overlap of interaction neighborhoods) can have a large impact on the resulting evolutionary dynamics. Our work provides a clear example of the importance of construction procedures in games on graphs, of the suitability of bigraphs and hypergraphs for computational modeling, and of the importance of concepts from social network analysis such as centrality, centralization and bipartite clustering for the understanding of dynamical processes occurring on networked population structures. PMID:22970237

Random and non-random mating populations: Evolutionary dynamics in meiotic drive.

PubMed

Sarkar, Bijan

2016-01-01

Game theoretic tools are utilized to analyze a one-locus continuous selection model of sex-specific meiotic drive by considering nonequivalence of the viabilities of reciprocal heterozygotes that might be noticed at an imprinted locus. The model draws attention to the role of viability selections of different types to examine the stable nature of polymorphic equilibrium. A bridge between population genetics and evolutionary game theory has been built up by applying the concept of the Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection. In addition to pointing out the influences of male and female segregation ratios on selection, configuration structure reveals some noted results, e.g., Hardy-Weinberg frequencies hold in replicator dynamics, occurrence of faster evolution at the maximized variance fitness, existence of mixed Evolutionarily Stable Strategy (ESS) in asymmetric games, the tending evolution to follow not only a 1:1 sex ratio but also a 1:1 different alleles ratio at particular gene locus. Through construction of replicator dynamics in the group selection framework, our selection model introduces a redefining bases of game theory to incorporate non-random mating where a mating parameter associated with population structure is dependent on the social structure. Also, the model exposes the fact that the number of polymorphic equilibria will depend on the algebraic expression of population structure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Preliminary Depositional and Provenance Records of Mesozoic Basin Evolution and Cenozoic Shortening in the High Andes, La Ramada Fold-Thrust Belt, Southern-Central Andes (32-33°S)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackaman-Lofland, C.; Horton, B. K.; Fuentes, F.; Constenius, K. N.; McKenzie, R.; Alvarado, P. M.

2015-12-01

The Argentinian Andes define key examples of retroarc shortening and basin evolution above a zone of active subduction. The La Ramada fold-thrust belt (RFTB) in the High Andes provides insights into the relative influence and temporal records of diverse convergent margin processes (e.g. flat-slab subduction, convergent wedge dynamics, structural inversion). The RFTB contains Mesozoic extensional basin strata deformed by later Andean shortening. New detrital zircon U-Pb analyses of Mesozoic rift sediments reveal: (1) a dominant Permo-Triassic age signature (220-280 Ma) associated with proximal sources of effective basement (Choiyoi Group) during Triassic synrift deposition; (2) upsection younging of maximum depositional ages from Late Triassic through Early Cretaceous (230 to 100 Ma) with the increasing influence of western Andean arc sources; and (3) a significant Late Cretaceous influx of Paleozoic (~350-550 Ma) and Proterozoic (~650-1300 Ma) populations during the earliest shift from back-arc post-extensional subsidence to upper-plate shortening. The Cenozoic detrital record of the Manantiales foreland basin (between the Frontal Cordillera and Precordillera) records RFTB deformation prior to flat-slab subduction. A Permo-Triassic Choiyoi age signature dominates the Miocene succession, consistent with sources in the proximal Espinacito range. Subordinate Mesozoic (~80-250 Ma) to Proterozoic (~850-1800 Ma) U-Pb populations record exhumation of the Andean magmatic arc and recycling of different structural levels in the RFTB during thrusting/inversion of Mesozoic rift basin strata and subjacent Paleozoic units. Whereas maximum depositional ages of sampled Manantiales units cluster at 18-20 Ma, the Estancia Uspallata basin (~50 km to the south) shows consistent upsection younging of Cenozoic populations attributed to proximal volcanic centers. Ongoing work will apply low-temperature thermochronology to pinpoint basin accumulation histories and thrust timing.

Infalling groups and galaxy transformations in the cluster A2142

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Einasto, Maret; Deshev, Boris; Lietzen, Heidi; Kipper, Rain; Tempel, Elmo; Park, Changbom; Gramann, Mirt; Heinämäki, Pekka; Saar, Enn; Einasto, Jaan

2018-03-01

Context. Superclusters of galaxies provide dynamical environments for the study of the formation and evolution of structures in the cosmic web from galaxies, to the richest galaxy clusters, and superclusters themselves. Aims: We study galaxy populations and search for possible merging substructures in the rich galaxy cluster A2142 in the collapsing core of the supercluster SCl A2142, which may give rise to radio and X-ray structures in the cluster, and affect galaxy properties of this cluster. Methods: We used normal mixture modelling to select substructure of the cluster A2142. We compared alignments of the cluster, its brightest galaxies (hereafter BCGs), subclusters, and supercluster axes. The projected phase space (PPS) diagram and clustercentric distributions are used to analyse the dynamics of the cluster and study the distribution of various galaxy populations in the cluster and subclusters. Results: We find several infalling galaxy groups and subclusters. The cluster, supercluster, BCGs, and one infalling subcluster are all aligned. Their orientation is correlated with the alignment of the radio and X-ray haloes of the cluster. Galaxy populations in the main cluster and in the outskirts subclusters are different. Galaxies in the centre of the main cluster at the clustercentric distances 0.5 h-1 Mpc (Dc/Rvir < 0.5, Rvir = 0.9 h-1 Mpc) have older stellar populations (with the median age of 10-11 Gyr) than galaxies at larger clustercentric distances. Star-forming and recently quenched galaxies are located mostly at the clustercentric distances Dc ≈ 1.8 h-1 Mpc, where subclusters fall into the cluster and the properties of galaxies change rapidly. In this region the median age of stellar populations of galaxies is about 2 Gyr. Galaxies in A2142 on average have higher stellar masses, lower star formation rates, and redder colours than galaxies in rich groups. The total mass in infalling groups and subclusters is M ≈ 6 × 1014 h-1 M⊙, that is approximately half of the mass of the cluster. This mass is sufficient for the mass growth of the cluster from redshift z = 0.5 (half-mass epoch) to the present. Conclusions: Our analysis suggests that the cluster A2142 has formed as a result of past and present mergers and infallen groups, predominantly along the supercluster axis. Mergers cause complex radio and X-ray structure of the cluster and affect the properties of galaxies in the cluster, especially at the boundaries of the cluster in the infall region. Explaining the differences between galaxy populations, mass, and richness of A2142, and other groups and clusters may lead to better insight about the formation and evolution of rich galaxy clusters.

Joint  effects of habitat configuration and temporal stochasticity on population dynamics

Treesearch

Jennifer M. Fraterrigo; Scott M. Pearson; Monica G. Turner

2009-01-01

Habitat configuration and temporal stochasticity in the environment are recognized as important drivers of population structure, yet few studies have examined the combined influence of these factors....

Population dynamics in changing environments: the case of an eruptive forest pest species.

PubMed

Kausrud, Kyrre; Okland, Bjørn; Skarpaas, Olav; Grégoire, Jean-Claude; Erbilgin, Nadir; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2012-02-01

In recent decades we have seen rapid and co-occurring changes in landscape structure, species distributions and even climate as consequences of human activity. Such changes affect the dynamics of the interaction between major forest pest species, such as bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), and their host trees. Normally breeding mostly in broken or severely stressed spruce; at high population densities some bark beetle species can colonise and kill healthy trees on scales ranging from single trees in a stand to multi-annual landscape-wide outbreaks. In Eurasia, the largest outbreaks are caused by the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus (Linnaeus), which is common and shares a wide distribution with its main host, Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst.). A large literature is now available, from which this review aims to synthesize research relevant for the population dynamics of I. typographus and co-occurring species under changing conditions. We find that spruce bark beetle population dynamics tend to be metastable, but that mixed-species and age-heterogeneous forests with good site-matching tend to be less susceptible to large-scale outbreaks. While large accumulations of logs should be removed and/or debarked before the next swarming period, intensive removal of all coarse dead wood may be counterproductive, as it reduces the diversity of predators that in some areas may play a role in keeping I. typographus populations below the outbreak threshold, and sanitary logging frequently causes edge effects and root damage, reducing the resistance of remaining trees. It is very hard to predict the outcome of interspecific interactions due to invading beetle species or I. typographus establishing outside its current range, as they can be of varying sign and strength and may fluctuate depending on environmental factors and population phase. Most research indicates that beetle outbreaks will increase in frequency and magnitude as temperature, wind speed and precipitation variability increases, and that mitigating forestry practices should be adopted as soon as possible considering the time lags involved. © 2011 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2011 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Modélisation des disques de débris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beust, H.; Halbwachs, J.-L.

2006-03-01

Debris disks are dusty and gaseous circumstellar disks orbiting stars with ages ranging from 10(7 ) yr to a few 10(8 ) yr. In contrast to genuine protoplanetary disk, they are optically thin, and are characterized by a very small amount of gas. As a consequence, their dynamics is basically gravitational. They are mainly observed in scattered light in the near infrared and/or in thermal emission at longer wavelengths. About 12 disks of this kind are known today, but their number increases rapidly thanks to the improvement of the detection techniques and instruments. What is seen in these disks is dust. Observing a scattered light profile in a debris disk, one wants to derive the spatial distribution of the dust particles. The inversion method is close to a deprojection technique. Typically (e.g., in the bp\\ disk), the surface density decreases as r(-1) up to a given distance (120 AU in the bp\\ disk) and falls off more steeply (˜~ r(-4) ) further out. Dust particles in debris disks are usually subject to an intense radiation pressure that drastically affects their dynamics. Combined with collisions, it contributes to quickly erode the dust population by removing the smallest grains. Hence the dust population must be sustained by a large population of colliding and/or evaporating planetesimals. Once produced by the parent bodies, the dust particles diffuse further out in the disk thanks to radiation pressure, or wind pressure in disks orbiting late-type stars. Nearly all debris disks that have been imaged exhibit various structures and asymetries, such as gaps, clumps, warps, and spiral arms. These structures are usually thought to originate in the distribution of the parent bodies, and to be due to gravitational perturbations by hidden planets and/or stellar companions, involving direct or secular perturbations, or interaction with mean-motion resonances. A detailed analysis of the observed structures in a given disk combined with dynamical simulations can in principle give access to the suspected planetary system. Valuable constraints have been derived in some cases. The solution is nevertheless not unique in general and the analysis is complicated by the fact that we only observe the dust particles and not the planetesimal population directly.

Life-History Traits and Population Structure of Pederson Cleaner Shrimps Ancylomenes pedersoni.

PubMed

Gilpin, Jessica A; Chadwick, Nanette E

2017-12-01

Cleaner organisms perform key functional roles in reducing rates of parasitism in marine communities. Pederson cleaner shrimps Ancylomenes pedersoni are major cleaners of reef fishes in the tropical western Atlantic and form obligate symbioses with host sea anemones. Information about their life-history traits would contribute to understanding how symbiosis impacts life-history evolution in crustaceans, but little is known about patterns of growth and reproduction in this anemone shrimp. We quantified growth, sexual reproduction, senescence, and mortality in individuals of A. pedersoni under laboratory conditions and their abundance and population size structure on coral reefs in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands. Von Bertalanffy growth curves were fitted to the data to determine age-size relationships, and the Beverton-Holt model was used to estimate mortality rates and size at maximum yield. Individuals grew rapidly when young, then slowed their growth after reaching sexual maturity at ~6 months. Individuals were gonochoric, with males attaining significantly smaller body sizes and shorter life spans than did females. Prior to death at <2 years, members of both genders exhibited senescence during which they ceased reproducing, shrank (females only), and decreased their activity levels over ~1-4 weeks. Field populations were abundant and composed mostly of juveniles during both years examined. Populations appeared to be stable but highly dynamic in terms of individuals, reaching maximum yield at 4 months of age. We conclude that obligate symbiosis with large sea anemones and cleaner mutualism with reef fishes both contribute to explaining aspects of the life history of Pederson shrimps, especially their apparent mating system of pure-search polygynandry. This life-history information also provides a scientific basis for sustainable fishery management and aquaculture of this key coral reef organism.

Metapopulation structure of the specialized herbivore Macrosiphoniella tanacetaria (Homoptera, Aphididae).

PubMed

Massonnet, Blandine; Simon, Jean-Christophe; Weisser, Wolfgang W

2002-12-01

We investigated population dynamics, genetic diversity and spatial structure in the aphid species Macrosiphoniella tanacetaria, a specialist herbivore feeding on tansy, Tanacetum vulgare. Tansy plants (genets) consist of many shoots (ramets), and genets are grouped in sites. Thus, aphids feeding on tansy can cluster at the level of ramets, genets and sites. We studied aphid population dynamics in 1997 and 2001 and found that within sites: (i). at any time, aphids used only a fraction of the available ramets and genets; (ii). at the level of ramets, most aphid colonies survived only one week; (iii). at the level of genets, mean survival time was less than 4 weeks; and (iv). colonization and extinction events occurred throughout the season. We sampled aphids in seven sites in the Alsace region, France (4-45 km apart) and two sites in Germany in 1999 to study genetic structure within and between populations. Genetic analyses using nine microsatellite loci showed that: (i). genotypic variability was high, (ii). none of the populations was in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, (iii). heterozygote deficits and linkage disequilibria were frequent, and (iv). all populations were genetically differentiated, even at a small geographical scale. Renewed sampling of the Alsace sites in 2001 showed that three populations had become extinct and significant genetic changes had occurred in the remaining four populations. The frequencies of extinction and colonization events at several spatial scales suggest a hierarchical metapopulation structure for M. tanacetaria. Frequent population turnover and drift are likely causes for the genetic differentiation of M. tanacetaria populations.

Galaxy evolution in clusters since z=1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aragón-Salamanca, A.

2011-11-01

It is now 30 years since Alan Dressler published his seminal paper onthe morphology-density relation. Although there is still much to learnon the effect of the environment on galaxy evolution, extensive progress has been made since then both observationally and theoretically.Galaxy clusters provide some of the most extreme environments in which galaxies evolve, making them excellent laboratories to study the age old question of "nature'' vs. "nurture'' in galaxy evolution. Here I review some of the key observational results obtained during the last decade on the evolution of the morphology, structure, dynamics, star-formation history and stellar populations of cluster galaxies since the time when the universe was half its present age.Many of the results presented here have been obtainedwithin the ESO Distant Cluster Survey (EDisCS) and Space Telescope A901/02 Galaxy Evolution Survey (STAGES) collaborations.

Shear-transformation-zone theory of linear glassy dynamics.

PubMed

Bouchbinder, Eran; Langer, J S

2011-06-01

We present a linearized shear-transformation-zone (STZ) theory of glassy dynamics in which the internal STZ transition rates are characterized by a broad distribution of activation barriers. For slowly aging or fully aged systems, the main features of the barrier-height distribution are determined by the effective temperature and other near-equilibrium properties of the configurational degrees of freedom. Our theory accounts for the wide range of relaxation rates observed in both metallic glasses and soft glassy materials such as colloidal suspensions. We find that the frequency-dependent loss modulus is not just a superposition of Maxwell modes. Rather, it exhibits an α peak that rises near the viscous relaxation rate and, for nearly jammed, glassy systems, extends to much higher frequencies in accord with experimental observations. We also use this theory to compute strain recovery following a period of large, persistent deformation and then abrupt unloading. We find that strain recovery is determined in part by the initial barrier-height distribution, but that true structural aging also occurs during this process and determines the system's response to subsequent perturbations. In particular, we find by comparison with experimental data that the initial deformation produces a highly disordered state with a large population of low activation barriers, and that this state relaxes quickly toward one in which the distribution is dominated by the high barriers predicted by the near-equilibrium analysis. The nonequilibrium dynamics of the barrier-height distribution is the most important of the issues raised and left unresolved in this paper.

Do Out-of-Pocket Health Expenditures Rise with Age Among Older Americans?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stewart, Susan T.

2004-01-01

Purpose: Relationships are examined between age and out-of-pocket costs for different health goods and services among the older population. Design and Methods: Age patterns in health service use and out-of-pocket costs are examined by use of the 1990 Elderly Health Supplement to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (N = 1,031, age 66+). Multivariate…

Density dependence in group dynamics of a highly social mongoose, Suricata suricatta.

PubMed

Bateman, Andrew W; Ozgul, Arpat; Coulson, Tim; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

2012-05-01

1. For social species, the link between individual behaviour and population dynamics is mediated by group-level demography. 2. Populations of obligate cooperative breeders are structured into social groups, which may be subject to inverse density dependence (Allee effects) that result from a dependence on conspecific helpers, but evidence for population-wide Allee effects is rare. 3. We use field data from a long-term study of cooperative meerkats (Suricata suricatta; Schreber, 1776) - a species for which local Allee effects are not reflected in population-level dynamics - to empirically model interannual group dynamics. 4. Using phenomenological population models, modified to incorporate environmental conditions and potential Allee effects, we first investigate overall patterns of group dynamics and find support only for conventional density dependence that increases after years of low rainfall. 5. To explain the observed patterns, we examine specific demographic rates and assess their contributions to overall group dynamics. Although per-capita meerkat mortality is subject to a component Allee effect, it contributes relatively little to observed variation in group dynamics, and other (conventionally density dependent) demographic rates - especially emigration - govern group dynamics. 6. Our findings highlight the need to consider demographic processes and density dependence in subpopulations before drawing conclusions about how behaviour affects population processes in socially complex systems. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Structural change and higher educated labour in Indonesia.

PubMed

Pasay, N H

1990-12-01

This paper describes an impending shortage of higher-educated labor in Indonesia. Dynamic change is occurring in both Indonesia's population and economy. Its rapidly growing population demands annual national economic growth of 2.2% to avoid declining per capita output. Accordingly, investments have surged in banking and manufacturing industries as Indonesia undergoes structural change from an agricultural to service-based economy. Plagued by a majority of low productivity, elementary-level educated workers, increased productivity is called for to ensure continued development. As the age structural shift progresses, many of these workers will be absorbed in the services sector. Jobs exist requiring workers of all skill levels. This paper is mainly concerned, however, with higher-educated labor's failure to be oriented to the research and development required for sustained economic growth and development, and their entry into clerical positions potentially filled by less educated and less skilled labor. The services sector, particularly public services, is responsible for absorbing much of this labor. As professional, technical, and managerial capabilities and qualifications become increasingly needed in the near future as sector investments take effect, a shortage of higher-educated labor will become apparent. Policy makers are advised to anticipate these shortages and contemplate investments in human capital to facilitate a more smooth adjustment to structural change.

Short-term effects of reduced-impact logging on Copaifera spp. (Fabaceae) regeneration in eastern Amazon

Treesearch

Carine Klauberg; Edson Vidal; Carlos Alberto Silva; Andrew Thomas Hudak; Manuela Oliveira; Pedro Higuchi

2017-01-01

Timber management directly influences the population dynamics of tree species, like Copaifera spp. (copaíba), which provide oil-resin with ecological and economic importance. The aim of this study was to evaluate the structure and population dynamics of Copaifera in unmanaged and managed stands by reduced-impact logging (RIL) in eastern Amazon in Pará state, Brazil....

Assessing the effects of catch and release regulations on a quality adfluvial brook trout population using a computer based age-structure model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, Casey A.L.; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2011-01-01

Assessing the Effects of Catch-and-Release Regulations on a Brook Trout Population Using an Age-Structured Model: North American Journal of Fisheries Management: Vol 30, No 6 var _prum=[['id','54ff88bcabe53dc41d1004a5'],['mark','firstbyte',(new Date()).getTime()

Size and age structure of anadromous and landlocked populations of Rainbow Smelt

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Malley, Andrew; Enterline, Claire; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2017-01-01

Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax are widely distributed in both anadromous and landlocked populations throughout northeastern North America; abundance, size at age, and maximum size vary widely among populations and life histories. In the present study, size at age, von Bertalanffy growth parameters, population age distributions, and precision and bias in age assessment based on scales and sectioned otoliths were compared between ecotypes and among populations of Rainbow Smelt. To compare the ecotypes, we collected spawning adults from four anadromous and three landlocked populations in Maine during spring 2014. A significant bias was identified in only one of four scale comparisons but in four of seven otolith comparisons; however, a comparable level of precision was indicated. Anadromous populations had larger and more variable size at age and von Bertalanffy growth parameters than landlocked fish. Populations were composed of ages 1–4; six populations were dominated by age-2 or age-3 individuals, and one population was dominated by age-1 fish. These data suggest the presence of considerable plasticity among populations. A latitudinal gradient was observed in the anadromous Rainbow Smelt, which may show signs of population stress at the southern extent of their distribution.

Transmission Dynamics of the Four Dengue Serotypes in Southern Vietnam and the Potential Impact of Vaccination

PubMed Central

Coudeville, Laurent; Garnett, Geoff P.

2012-01-01

Background With approximately 2.5 billion people at risk, dengue is a major international public health concern. Dengue vaccines currently in development should help reduce the burden associated with this disease but the most efficient way of using future dengue vaccines remains to be defined. Mathematical models of transmission can provide insight into the expected impact of different vaccination strategies at a population level and contribute to this definition. Methods and Findings We developed and analyzed an age-structured, host-vector and serotype-specific compartmental model, including seasonality. We first used this transmission model to identify the immunological interactions between serotypes that affect the risks and consequences of secondary infections (cross-protection, increased susceptibility, increased severity, and increased infectiousness) and reproduce the observed epidemiology of dengue. For populating this model, we used routine surveillance data from Southern Vietnam and the results of a prospective cohort study conducted in the same area. The model provided a good fit to the observed data for age, severity of cases, serotype distribution, and dynamics over time, using two scenarios of immunological interaction : short term cross-protection alone (6–17 months) or a combination of short term cross-protection with cross-enhancement (increased susceptibility, severity and infectiousness in the case of secondary infections). Finally, we explored the potential impact of vaccination for these two scenarios. Both highlighted that vaccination can substantially decrease dengue burden by reducing the magnitude and frequency of outbreaks. Conclusion Our model suggests that seasonality and short term cross-protection are key factors for explaining dengue dynamics in Southern Vietnam. Vaccination was predicted to significantly reduce the disease burden, even in the situation where immunological cross-enhancement affects the risks and consequences of secondary infections. PMID:23251466

Body downsizing caused by non-consumptive social stress severely depresses population growth rate

PubMed Central

Edeline, Eric; Haugen, Thrond O.; Weltzien, Finn-Arne; Claessen, David; Winfield, Ian J.; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Vøllestad, L. Asbjørn

2010-01-01

Chronic social stress diverts energy away from growth, reproduction and immunity, and is thus a potential driver of population dynamics. However, the effects of social stress on demographic density dependence remain largely overlooked in ecological theory. Here we combine behavioural experiments, physiology and population modelling to show in a top predator (pike Esox lucius) that social stress alone may be a primary driver of demographic density dependence. Doubling pike density in experimental ponds under controlled prey availability did not significantly change prey intake by pike (i.e. did not significantly change interference or exploitative competition), but induced a neuroendocrine stress response reflecting a size-dependent dominance hierarchy, depressed pike energetic status and lowered pike body growth rate by 23 per cent. Assuming fixed size-dependent survival and fecundity functions parameterized for the Windermere (UK) pike population, stress-induced smaller body size shifts age-specific survival rates and lowers age-specific fecundity, which in Leslie matrices projects into reduced population rate of increase (λ) by 37–56%. Our models also predict that social stress flattens elasticity profiles of λ to age-specific survival and fecundity, thus making population persistence more dependent on old individuals. Our results suggest that accounting for non-consumptive social stress from competitors and predators is necessary to accurately understand, predict and manage food-web dynamics. PMID:19923130

Effects of landscape and patch-level attributes on regional population persistence

EPA Science Inventory

Habitat patch size and isolation are often described as the key habitat variables influencing population dynamics. Yet habitat quality may also play an important role in influencing the regional persistence of spatially structured populations as the value or density of resources ...

Stochastic dynamics of dengue epidemics.

PubMed

de Souza, David R; Tomé, Tânia; Pinho, Suani T R; Barreto, Florisneide R; de Oliveira, Mário J

2013-01-01

We use a stochastic Markovian dynamics approach to describe the spreading of vector-transmitted diseases, such as dengue, and the threshold of the disease. The coexistence space is composed of two structures representing the human and mosquito populations. The human population follows a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) type dynamics and the mosquito population follows a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) type dynamics. The human infection is caused by infected mosquitoes and vice versa, so that the SIS and SIR dynamics are interconnected. We develop a truncation scheme to solve the evolution equations from which we get the threshold of the disease and the reproductive ratio. The threshold of the disease is also obtained by performing numerical simulations. We found that for certain values of the infection rates the spreading of the disease is impossible, for any death rate of infected mosquitoes.

Epidemic patch models applied to pandemic influenza: contact matrix, stochasticity, robustness of predictions.

PubMed

Lunelli, Antonella; Pugliese, Andrea; Rizzo, Caterina

2009-07-01

Due to the recent emergence of H5N1 virus, the modelling of pandemic influenza has become a relevant issue. Here we present an SEIR model formulated to simulate a possible outbreak in Italy, analysing its structure and, more generally, the effect of including specific details into a model. These details regard population heterogeneities, such as age and spatial distribution, as well as stochasticity, that regulates the epidemic dynamics when the number of infectives is low. We discuss and motivate the specific modelling choices made when building the model and investigate how the model details influence the predicted dynamics. Our analysis may help in deciding which elements of complexity are worth including in the design of a deterministic model for pandemic influenza, in a balance between, on the one hand, keeping the model computationally efficient and the number of parameters low and, on the other hand, maintaining the necessary realistic features.

Consequences of the Allee effect and intraspecific competition on population persistence under adverse environmental conditions.

PubMed

Petrovskii, Sergei; Blackshaw, Rod; Li, Bai-Lian

2008-02-01

The impact of intraspecific interactions on ecological stability and population persistence in terms of steady state(s) existence is considered theoretically based on a general competition model. We compare persistence of a structured population consisting of a few interacting (competitive) subpopulations, or groups, to persistence of the corresponding unstructured population. For a general case, we show that if the intra-group competition is stronger than the inter-group competition, then the structured population is less prone to extinction, i.e. it can persist in a parameter range where the unstructured population goes extinct. For a more specific case of a population with hierarchical competition, we show that relative viability of structured and unstructured populations depend on the type of density dependence in the population growth. Namely, while in the case of logistic growth, structured and unstructured populations exhibit equivalent persistence; in the case of Allee dynamics, the persistence of a hierarchically structured population is shown to be higher. We then apply these results to the case of behaviourally structured populations and demonstrate that an extreme form of individual aggression can be beneficial at the population level and enhance population persistence.

Effects of paternal phenotype and environmental variability on age and size at maturity in a male dimorphic mite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smallegange, Isabel M.

2011-04-01

Investigating how the environment affects age and size at maturity of individuals is crucial to understanding how changes in the environment affect population dynamics through the biology of a species. Paternal phenotype, maternal, and offspring environment may crucially influence these traits, but to my knowledge, their combined effects have not yet been tested. Here, I found that in bulb mites ( Rhizoglyphus robini), maternal nutrition, offspring nutrition, and paternal phenotype (males are fighters, able to kill other mites, or benign scramblers) interactively affected offspring age and size at maturity. The largest effect occurred when both maternal and offspring nutrition was poor: in that case offspring from fighter sires required a significantly longer development time than offspring from scrambler sires. Investigating parental effects on the relationship between age and size at maturity revealed no paternal effects, and only for females was its shape influenced by maternal nutrition. Overall, this reaction norm was nonlinear. These non-genetic intergenerational effects may play a complex, yet unexplored role in influencing population fluctuations—possibly explaining why results from field studies often do not match theoretical predictions on maternal effects on population dynamics.

Managing the Cayo Santiago rhesus macaque population: The role of density.

PubMed

Hernandez-Pacheco, Raisa; Delgado, Diana L; Rawlins, Richard G; Kessler, Matthew J; Ruiz-Lambides, Angelina V; Maldonado, Elizabeth; Sabat, Alberto M

2016-01-01

Cayo Santiago is the oldest continuously operating free-ranging rhesus monkey colony in the world. Population control of this colony has historically been carried out by periodic live capture and removal of animals. However, the effect of such a strategy on the size, growth rate, age structure, and sex ratio of the population has not been analyzed. This study reviews past removal data and uses a population projection model to simulate the effects of different removal schemes based on Cayo Santiago demographic data from 2000-2012. The model incorporates negative density-dependence in female fertility, as well as male and female survival rates, to determine the population-level effects of selective removal by age and sex. Modeling revealed that removal of sexually immature individuals has negligible effects on the population dynamics explaining why with an initial population of 1309 in 2000 and annual removals of immature monkeys a mean annual population growth rate of 12% and a final population size of ∼1,435 individuals by 2012 (∼0.009 animal/m(2) ) was observed. With no removals, the population is expected to exhibit dampened oscillations until reaching equilibrium at ∼1,690 individuals (∼0.0111 animal/m(2) ) in 2,100. In contrast, removal of adult females (≥4 yrs) would significantly reduce the population size, but would also promote an increase in population growth rate due to density feedback. A maximum annual production of 275 births is expected when 550 adult females are present in the population. Sensitivity analyses showed that removing females, in contrast to controlling their fertility through invasive treatments would contribute the most to changes in population growth rate. Given the density compensation on fertility, stabilizing the population would require removing ∼80% of the current population of adult females. This study highlights the importance of addressing the population-level density effects, as well as sensitivity analyses, to optimize management strategies. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A structured population model with diffusion in structure space.

PubMed

Pugliese, Andrea; Milner, Fabio

2018-05-09

A structured population model is described and analyzed, in which individual dynamics is stochastic. The model consists of a PDE of advection-diffusion type in the structure variable. The population may represent, for example, the density of infected individuals structured by pathogen density x, [Formula: see text]. The individuals with density [Formula: see text] are not infected, but rather susceptible or recovered. Their dynamics is described by an ODE with a source term that is the exact flux from the diffusion and advection as [Formula: see text]. Infection/reinfection is then modeled moving a fraction of these individuals into the infected class by distributing them in the structure variable through a probability density function. Existence of a global-in-time solution is proven, as well as a classical bifurcation result about equilibrium solutions: a net reproduction number [Formula: see text] is defined that separates the case of only the trivial equilibrium existing when [Formula: see text] from the existence of another-nontrivial-equilibrium when [Formula: see text]. Numerical simulation results are provided to show the stabilization towards the positive equilibrium when [Formula: see text] and towards the trivial one when [Formula: see text], result that is not proven analytically. Simulations are also provided to show the Allee effect that helps boost population sizes at low densities.

Vigorous Dynamics Underlie a Stable Population of the Endangered Snow Leopard Panthera uncia in Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia

PubMed Central

Sharma, Koustubh; Bayrakcismith, Rana; Tumursukh, Lkhagvasumberel; Johansson, Orjan; Sevger, Purevsuren; McCarthy, Tom; Mishra, Charudutt

2014-01-01

Population monitoring programmes and estimation of vital rates are key to understanding the mechanisms of population growth, decline or stability, and are important for effective conservation action. We report, for the first time, the population trends and vital rates of the endangered snow leopard based on camera trapping over four years in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. We used robust design multi-season mark-recapture analysis to estimate the trends in abundance, sex ratio, survival probability and the probability of temporary emigration and immigration for adult and young snow leopards. The snow leopard population remained constant over most of the study period, with no apparent growth (λ = 1.08+−0.25). Comparison of model results with the “known population” of radio-collared snow leopards suggested high accuracy in our estimates. Although seemingly stable, vigorous underlying dynamics were evident in this population, with the adult sex ratio shifting from being male-biased to female-biased (1.67 to 0.38 males per female) during the study. Adult survival probability was 0.82 (SE+−0.08) and that of young was 0.83 (SE+−0.15) and 0.77 (SE +−0.2) respectively, before and after the age of 2 years. Young snow leopards showed a high probability of temporary emigration and immigration (0.6, SE +−0.19 and 0.68, SE +−0.32 before and after the age of 2 years) though not the adults (0.02 SE+−0.07). While the current female-bias in the population and the number of cubs born each year seemingly render the study population safe, the vigorous dynamics suggests that the situation can change quickly. The reduction in the proportion of male snow leopards may be indicative of continuing anthropogenic pressures. Our work reiterates the importance of monitoring both the abundance and population dynamics of species for effective conservation. PMID:25006879

Toxic compounds and health and reproductive effects in St. Lawrence Beluga Whales

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beland, P.; Michaud, R.; DeGuise, S.

1993-01-01

An epidemiologic study was carried out over a period of 9 years on an isolated population of beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) residing in the St. Lawrence estuary (Quebec, Canada). More than 100 individual deaths were aged, and/or autopsied and analyzed for toxic compounds, and the population was surveyed for size and structure. Arctic belugas and other species of whales and seals from the St. Lawrence were used for comparison. Population dynamics: Population size appeared to be stable and modeling showed this stable pattern to result from low calf production and/or low survival to adulthood. Toxicology: St. Lawrence belugas had highermore » or much higher levels of mercury, lead, PCBs, DDT, Mirex, benzo[a]pyrene metabolites, equivalent levels of dioxins, furans, and PAH metabolites, and much lower levels of cadmium than Arctic belugas. In other St. Lawrence cetaceans, levels of PCBs and DDT were inversely related to body size, as resulting from differences in metabolic rate, diet, and trophic position, compounded by length of residence in the St. Lawrence basin. St. Lawrence belugas had much higher levels than predicted from body size alone; levels increased with age in both sexes, although unloading by females through the placenta and/or lactation was evidenced by overall lower levels in females and very high burdens in some calves. 45 refs., 4 figs., 5 tabs.« less

Accommodating environmental variation in population models: metaphysiological biomass loss accounting.

PubMed

Owen-Smith, Norman

2011-07-01

1. There is a pressing need for population models that can reliably predict responses to changing environmental conditions and diagnose the causes of variation in abundance in space as well as through time. In this 'how to' article, it is outlined how standard population models can be modified to accommodate environmental variation in a heuristically conducive way. This approach is based on metaphysiological modelling concepts linking populations within food web contexts and underlying behaviour governing resource selection. Using population biomass as the currency, population changes can be considered at fine temporal scales taking into account seasonal variation. Density feedbacks are generated through the seasonal depression of resources even in the absence of interference competition. 2. Examples described include (i) metaphysiological modifications of Lotka-Volterra equations for coupled consumer-resource dynamics, accommodating seasonal variation in resource quality as well as availability, resource-dependent mortality and additive predation, (ii) spatial variation in habitat suitability evident from the population abundance attained, taking into account resource heterogeneity and consumer choice using empirical data, (iii) accommodating population structure through the variable sensitivity of life-history stages to resource deficiencies, affecting susceptibility to oscillatory dynamics and (iv) expansion of density-dependent equations to accommodate various biomass losses reducing population growth rate below its potential, including reductions in reproductive outputs. Supporting computational code and parameter values are provided. 3. The essential features of metaphysiological population models include (i) the biomass currency enabling within-year dynamics to be represented appropriately, (ii) distinguishing various processes reducing population growth below its potential, (iii) structural consistency in the representation of interacting populations and (iv) capacity to accommodate environmental variation in space as well as through time. Biomass dynamics provide a common currency linking behavioural, population and food web ecology. 4. Metaphysiological biomass loss accounting provides a conceptual framework more conducive for projecting and interpreting the population consequences of climatic shifts and human transformations of habitats than standard modelling approaches. © 2011 The Author. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

[Fertility of the Yanomami population of Sierra Parima (Amazonas Federal Territory, Venezuela)].

PubMed

Schkolnik, S

1983-08-01

This article presents information on the age structure and level of female fertility obtained on the basis of a sample of the Yanomami population (653 individuals) residing in the Venezuelan margin of Sierra Parima. The population observed is very young, over 50% are less than age 15, and the mean age is 18. The total fertility rate reaches 7.76 children/woman while the age distribution of rates show that fertility begins at a very early age and begins to decrease only after age 30. (author's modified)

Heterogeneous population dynamics and scaling laws near epidemic outbreaks.

PubMed

Widder, Andreas; Kuehn, Christian

2016-10-01

In this paper, we focus on the influence of heterogeneity and stochasticity of the population on the dynamical structure of a basic susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model. First we prove that, upon a suitable mathematical reformulation of the basic reproduction number, the homogeneous system and the heterogeneous system exhibit a completely analogous global behaviour. Then we consider noise terms to incorporate the fluctuation effects and the random import of the disease into the population and analyse the influence of heterogeneity on warning signs for critical transitions (or tipping points). This theory shows that one may be able to anticipate whether a bifurcation point is close before it happens. We use numerical simulations of a stochastic fast-slow heterogeneous population SIS model and show various aspects of heterogeneity have crucial influences on the scaling laws that are used as early-warning signs for the homogeneous system. Thus, although the basic structural qualitative dynamical properties are the same for both systems, the quantitative features for epidemic prediction are expected to change and care has to be taken to interpret potential warning signs for disease outbreaks correctly.

Identification of metapopulation dynamics among Northern Goshawks of the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and Coastal British Columbia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sonsthagen, Sarah A.; McClaren, Erica L.; Doyle, Frank I.; Titus, K.; Sage, George K.; Wilson, Robert E.; Gust, Judy R.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2012-01-01

Northern Goshawks occupying the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and coastal British Columbia nest primarily in old-growth and mature forest, which results in spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of individuals across the landscape. We used microsatellite and mitochondrial data to infer genetic structure, gene flow, and fluctuations in population demography through evolutionary time. Patterns in the genetic signatures were used to assess predictions associated with the three population models: panmixia, metapopulation, and isolated populations. Population genetic structure was observed along with asymmetry in gene flow estimates that changed directionality at different temporal scales, consistent with metapopulation model predictions. Therefore, Northern Goshawk assemblages located in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia interact through a metapopulation framework, though they may not fit the classic model of a metapopulation. Long-term population sources (coastal mainland British Columbia) and sinks (Revillagigedo and Vancouver islands) were identified. However, there was no trend through evolutionary time in the directionality of dispersal among the remaining assemblages, suggestive of a rescue-effect dynamic. Admiralty, Douglas, and Chichagof island complex appears to be an evolutionarily recent source population in the Alexander Archipelago. In addition, Kupreanof island complex and Kispiox Forest District populations have high dispersal rates to populations in close geographic proximity and potentially serve as local source populations. Metapopulation dynamics occurring in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia by Northern Goshawks highlight the importance of both occupied and unoccupied habitats to long-term population persistence of goshawks in this region.

Heterogeneous network promotes species coexistence: metapopulation model for rock-paper-scissors game.

PubMed

Nagatani, Takashi; Ichinose, Genki; Tainaka, Kei-Ichi

2018-05-04

Understanding mechanisms of biodiversity has been a central question in ecology. The coexistence of three species in rock-paper-scissors (RPS) systems are discussed by many authors; however, the relation between coexistence and network structure is rarely discussed. Here we present a metapopulation model for RPS game. The total population is assumed to consist of three subpopulations (nodes). Each individual migrates by random walk; the destination of migration is randomly determined. From reaction-migration equations, we obtain the population dynamics. It is found that the dynamic highly depends on network structures. When a network is homogeneous, the dynamics are neutrally stable: each node has a periodic solution, and the oscillations synchronize in all nodes. However, when a network is heterogeneous, the dynamics approach stable focus and all nodes reach equilibriums with different densities. Hence, the heterogeneity of the network promotes biodiversity.

Policy choices in dementia care-An exploratory analysis of the Alberta continuing care system (ACCS) using system dynamics.

PubMed

Cepoiu-Martin, Monica; Bischak, Diane P

2018-02-01

The increase in the incidence of dementia in the aging population and the decrease in the availability of informal caregivers put pressure on continuing care systems to care for a growing number of people with disabilities. Policy changes in the continuing care system need to address this shift in the population structure. One of the most effective tools for assessing policies in complex systems is system dynamics. Nevertheless, this method is underused in continuing care capacity planning. A system dynamics model of the Alberta Continuing Care System was developed using stylized data. Sensitivity analyses and policy evaluations were conducted to demonstrate the use of system dynamics modelling in this area of public health planning. We focused our policy exploration on introducing staff/resident benchmarks in both supportive living and long-term care (LTC). The sensitivity analyses presented in this paper help identify leverage points in the system that need to be acknowledged when policy decisions are made. Our policy explorations showed that the deficits of staff increase dramatically when benchmarks are introduced, as expected, but at the end of the simulation period, the difference in deficits of both nurses and health care aids are similar between the 2 scenarios tested. Modifying the benchmarks in LTC only versus in both supportive living and LTC has similar effects on staff deficits in long term, under the assumptions of this particular model. The continuing care system dynamics model can be used to test various policy scenarios, allowing decision makers to visualize the effect of a certain policy choice on different system variables and to compare different policy options. Our exploration illustrates the use of system dynamics models for policy making in complex health care systems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Development of visual cortical function in infant macaques: A BOLD fMRI study

PubMed Central

Meeson, Alan; Munk, Matthias H. J.; Kourtzi, Zoe; Movshon, J. Anthony; Logothetis, Nikos K.; Kiorpes, Lynne

2017-01-01

Functional brain development is not well understood. In the visual system, neurophysiological studies in nonhuman primates show quite mature neuronal properties near birth although visual function is itself quite immature and continues to develop over many months or years after birth. Our goal was to assess the relative development of two main visual processing streams, dorsal and ventral, using BOLD fMRI in an attempt to understand the global mechanisms that support the maturation of visual behavior. Seven infant macaque monkeys (Macaca mulatta) were repeatedly scanned, while anesthetized, over an age range of 102 to 1431 days. Large rotating checkerboard stimuli induced BOLD activation in visual cortices at early ages. Additionally we used static and dynamic Glass pattern stimuli to probe BOLD responses in primary visual cortex and two extrastriate areas: V4 and MT-V5. The resulting activations were analyzed with standard GLM and multivoxel pattern analysis (MVPA) approaches. We analyzed three contrasts: Glass pattern present/absent, static/dynamic Glass pattern presentation, and structured/random Glass pattern form. For both GLM and MVPA approaches, robust coherent BOLD activation appeared relatively late in comparison to the maturation of known neuronal properties and the development of behavioral sensitivity to Glass patterns. Robust differential activity to Glass pattern present/absent and dynamic/static stimulus presentation appeared first in V1, followed by V4 and MT-V5 at older ages; there was no reliable distinction between the two extrastriate areas. A similar pattern of results was obtained with the two analysis methods, although MVPA analysis showed reliable differential responses emerging at later ages than GLM. Although BOLD responses to large visual stimuli are detectable, our results with more refined stimuli indicate that global BOLD activity changes as behavioral performance matures. This reflects an hierarchical development of the visual pathways. Since fMRI BOLD reflects neural activity on a population level, our results indicate that, although individual neurons might be adult-like, a longer maturation process takes place on a population level. PMID:29145469

An assessment of sauger population characteristics on two Tennessee River reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graham, Christy L.; Bettoli, Phillip William; Churchill, Timothy N.

2015-01-01

In 1992, a 356-mm minimum length limit (MLL) was enacted on Kentucky Lake and a 381-mm MLL was enacted on Watts Bar Lake, two mainstem reservoirs on the Tennessee River, in an attempt to reduce exploitation and improve the size structure of the sauger (Sander canadensis) populations. The objectives of this study were to compare sauger population characteristics immediately following (1993–1994) and 15 years after (2008–2009) the regulations took effect, examine spatial and temporal patterns in growth, examine recruitment patterns in each reservoir using a recruitment variability index (RVI), and assess the current likelihood of overfishing. Saugers were collected with experimental gill nets in each reservoir and aged using otoliths. A Beverton-Holt yield-per-recruit model was used to simulate angler yields and estimate the likelihood of growth overfishing. Recruitment overfishing was assessed by examining spawning potential ratios under various MLL and exploitation rate scenarios. The sauger population in Kentucky Lake experienced modest improvements in size and age structure over the 15 years following enactment of more restrictive harvest regulations, whereas the population in Watts Bar Lake changed very little, if at all, in terms of size and age structure. Mean lengths of age-3 sauger were significantly greater in Watts Bar Lake than in Kentucky Lake in both time periods. The RVI values indicated that between 1993 and 2009 the sauger in Kentucky Lake displayed more stable recruitment than the Watts Bar Lake population. Neither population exhibited signs of growth overfishing in 2008–09 under the current length limits; however, the Watts Bar Lake population would be susceptible to recruitment overfishing at high (>40%) exploitation rates if natural mortality was as low as 20%. These analyses have demonstrated that the Watts Bar Lake and Kentucky Lake populations, in terms of size and age structure, have remained relatively stable over 15+ years and the MLLs appear to be conserving the stocks.

Fine resolution mapping of population age-structures for health and development applications.

PubMed

Alegana, V A; Atkinson, P M; Pezzulo, C; Sorichetta, A; Weiss, D; Bird, T; Erbach-Schoenberg, E; Tatem, A J

2015-04-06

The age-group composition of populations varies considerably across the world, and obtaining accurate, spatially detailed estimates of numbers of children under 5 years is important in designing vaccination strategies, educational planning or maternal healthcare delivery. Traditionally, such estimates are derived from population censuses, but these can often be unreliable, outdated and of coarse resolution for resource-poor settings. Focusing on Nigeria, we use nationally representative household surveys and their cluster locations to predict the proportion of the under-five population in 1 × 1 km using a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model. Results showed that land cover, travel time to major settlements, night-time lights and vegetation index were good predictors and that accounting for fine-scale variation, rather than assuming a uniform proportion of under 5 year olds can result in significant differences in health metrics. The largest gaps in estimated bednet and vaccination coverage were in Kano, Katsina and Jigawa. Geolocated household surveys are a valuable resource for providing detailed, contemporary and regularly updated population age-structure data in the absence of recent census data. By combining these with covariate layers, age-structure maps of unprecedented detail can be produced to guide the targeting of interventions in resource-poor settings.

Host age modulates parasite infectivity, virulence and reproduction.

PubMed

Izhar, Rony; Ben-Ami, Frida

2015-07-01

Host age is one of the most striking differences among hosts within most populations, but there is very little data on how age-dependent effects impact ecological and evolutionary dynamics of both the host and the parasite. Here, we examined the influence of host age (juveniles, young and old adults) at parasite exposure on host susceptibility, fecundity and survival as well as parasite transmission, using two clones of the water flea Daphnia magna and two clones of its bacterial parasite Pasteuria ramosa. Younger D. magna were more susceptible to infection than older ones, regardless of host or parasite clone. Also, younger-infected D. magna became castrated faster than older hosts, but host and parasite clone effects contributed to this trait as well. Furthermore, the early-infected D. magna produced considerably more parasite transmission stages than late-infected ones, while host age at exposure did not affect virulence as it is defined in models (host mortality). When virulence is defined more broadly as the negative effects of infection on host fitness, by integrating the parasitic effects on host fecundity and mortality, then host age at exposure seems to slide along a negative relationship between host and parasite fitness. Thus, the virulence-transmission trade-off differs strongly among age classes, which in turn affects predictions of optimal virulence. Age-dependent effects on host susceptibility, virulence and parasite transmission could pose an important challenge for experimental and theoretical studies of infectious disease dynamics and disease ecology. Our results present a call for a more explicit stage-structured theory for disease, which will incorporate age-dependent epidemiological parameters. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Polymorphic nuclear markers for coastal plant species with dynamic geographic distributions, the rock samphire (Crithmum maritimum) and the vulnerable dune pansy (Viola tricolor subsp. curtisii).

PubMed

Latron, Mathilde; Arnaud, Jean-François; Ferla, Héloïse; Godé, Cécile; Duputié, Anne

2018-06-01

Identifying spatial patterns of genetic differentiation across a species range is critical to set up conservation and restoration decision-making. This is especially timely, since global change triggers shifts in species' geographic distribution and in the geographical variation of mating system and patterns of genetic differentiation, with varying consequences at the trailing and leading edges of a species' distribution. Using 454 pyrosequencing, we developed nuclear microsatellite loci for two plant species showing a strictly coastal geographical distribution and contrasting range dynamics: the expanding rock samphire (Crithmum maritimum, 21 loci) and the highly endangered and receding dune pansy (Viola tricolor subsp. curtisii, 12 loci). Population genetic structure was then assessed by genotyping more than 100 individuals from four populations of each of the two target species. Rock samphire displayed high levels of genetic differentiation (F ST  = 0.38), and a genetic structure typical of a mostly selfing species (F IS ranging from 0.16 to 0.58). Populations of dune pansy showed a less pronounced level of population structuring (F ST  = 0.25) and a genotypic structure more suggestive of a mixed-mating system when excluding two loci with heterozygote excess. These results demonstrate that the genetic markers developed here are useful to assess the mating system of populations of these two species. They will be tools of choice to investigate phylogeographical patterns and variation in mating system over the geographical distribution ranges for two coastal plant species that are subject to dynamic evolution due to rapid contemporary global change.

Dancing to the rhythms of the Pleistocene? Early Middle Paleolithic population dynamics in NW Iberia (Duero Basin and Cantabrian Region)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez Yustos, Policarpo; Diez Martín, Fernando

2015-08-01

The Northwest of Iberia has yielded one of the most complete European Middle Paleolithic records. Despite this wealth of information, very little is known about population dynamics during this period. For that reason, the main concern of this paper is to provide socio-environmental models that may help explain Early Middle Paleolithic (EMP) population dynamics in NW Iberia, assessing to what extent they were shaped by climate forces. The archaeological record is analyzed on the basis of the heuristics of ecological models, already employed in the European Pleistocene record but never at a regional scale, in order to detect long-term changes in the composition of EMP populations, and the environmental, biological and sociocultural process influencing those changes. According to the models proposed, we have detected a long-term population dynamic between MIS 11 and MIS 6, characterized by low environmental stress, high biological productivity, interaction among populations and sociocultural complexity. Eventually, this population dynamic was broken due to an extreme climate phase in late MIS 6 that had a profound impact on populations and sociocultural structures. As a result, the Upper Pleistocene population of NW Iberia was concentrated in the Cantabrian region. This area became an isolated Neanderthal glacial refugium that hosted a population with different origins and fragile long-term demographic stability.

A New Age-Structured Multiscale Model of the Hepatitis C Virus Life-Cycle During Infection and Therapy With Direct-Acting Antiviral Agents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quintela, Barbara de M.; Conway, Jessica M.; Hyman, James M.

Here, the dynamics of hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA during translation and replication within infected cells were added to a previous age-structured multiscale mathematical model of HCV infection and treatment. The model allows the study of the dynamics of HCV RNA inside infected cells as well as the release of virus from infected cells and the dynamics of subsequent new cell infections. The model was used to fit in vitro data and estimate parameters characterizing HCV replication. This is the first model to our knowledge to consider both positive and negative strands of HCV RNA with an age-structured multiscale modelingmore » approach. Using this model we also studied the effects of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) in blocking HCV RNA intracellular replication and the release of new virions and fit the model to in vivo data obtained from HCV-infected subjects under therapy.« less

A New Age-Structured Multiscale Model of the Hepatitis C Virus Life-Cycle During Infection and Therapy With Direct-Acting Antiviral Agents

DOE PAGES

Quintela, Barbara de M.; Conway, Jessica M.; Hyman, James M.; ...

2018-04-04

Here, the dynamics of hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA during translation and replication within infected cells were added to a previous age-structured multiscale mathematical model of HCV infection and treatment. The model allows the study of the dynamics of HCV RNA inside infected cells as well as the release of virus from infected cells and the dynamics of subsequent new cell infections. The model was used to fit in vitro data and estimate parameters characterizing HCV replication. This is the first model to our knowledge to consider both positive and negative strands of HCV RNA with an age-structured multiscale modelingmore » approach. Using this model we also studied the effects of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) in blocking HCV RNA intracellular replication and the release of new virions and fit the model to in vivo data obtained from HCV-infected subjects under therapy.« less

Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations

PubMed Central

Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M.; Wang, Long

2014-01-01

On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics. PMID:24598208

Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations.

PubMed

Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M; Wang, Long

2014-05-06

On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics.

Bacterial population dynamics during the ensiling of Medicago sativa (alfalfa) and subsequent exposure to air.

PubMed

McGarvey, J A; Franco, R B; Palumbo, J D; Hnasko, R; Stanker, L; Mitloehner, F M

2013-06-01

To describe, at high resolution, the bacterial population dynamics and chemical transformations during the ensiling of alfalfa and subsequent exposure to air. Samples of alfalfa, ensiled alfalfa and silage exposed to air were collected and their bacterial population structures compared using 16S rRNA gene libraries containing approximately 1900 sequences each. Cultural and chemical analyses were also performed to complement the 16S gene sequence data. Sequence analysis revealed significant differences (P < 0·05) in the bacterial populations at each time point. The alfalfa-derived library contained mostly sequences associated with the Gammaproteobacteria (including the genera: Enterobacter, Erwinia and Pantoea); the ensiled material contained mostly sequences associated with the lactic acid bacteria (LAB) (including the genera: Lactobacillus, Pediococcus and Lactococcus). Exposure to air resulted in even greater percentages of LAB, especially among the genus Lactobacillus, and a significant drop in bacterial diversity. In-depth 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis revealed significant bacterial population structure changes during ensiling and again during exposure to air. This in-depth description of the bacterial population dynamics that occurred during ensiling and simulated feed out expands our knowledge of these processes. © 2013 The Society for Applied Microbiology No claim to US Government works.

A quantitative dynamic systems model of health-related quality of life among older adults

PubMed Central

Roppolo, Mattia; Kunnen, E Saskia; van Geert, Paul L; Mulasso, Anna; Rabaglietti, Emanuela

2015-01-01

Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is a person-centered concept. The analysis of HRQOL is highly relevant in the aged population, which is generally suffering from health decline. Starting from a conceptual dynamic systems model that describes the development of HRQOL in individuals over time, this study aims to develop and test a quantitative dynamic systems model, in order to reveal the possible dynamic trends of HRQOL among older adults. The model is tested in different ways: first, with a calibration procedure to test whether the model produces theoretically plausible results, and second, with a preliminary validation procedure using empirical data of 194 older adults. This first validation tested the prediction that given a particular starting point (first empirical data point), the model will generate dynamic trajectories that lead to the observed endpoint (second empirical data point). The analyses reveal that the quantitative model produces theoretically plausible trajectories, thus providing support for the calibration procedure. Furthermore, the analyses of validation show a good fit between empirical and simulated data. In fact, no differences were found in the comparison between empirical and simulated final data for the same subgroup of participants, whereas the comparison between different subgroups of people resulted in significant differences. These data provide an initial basis of evidence for the dynamic nature of HRQOL during the aging process. Therefore, these data may give new theoretical and applied insights into the study of HRQOL and its development with time in the aging population. PMID:26604722

Intercohort density dependence drives brown trout habitat selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayllón, Daniel; Nicola, Graciela G.; Parra, Irene; Elvira, Benigno; Almodóvar, Ana

2013-01-01

Habitat selection can be viewed as an emergent property of the quality and availability of habitat but also of the number of individuals and the way they compete for its use. Consequently, habitat selection can change across years due to fluctuating resources or to changes in population numbers. However, habitat selection predictive models often do not account for ecological dynamics, especially density dependent processes. In stage-structured population, the strength of density dependent interactions between individuals of different age classes can exert a profound influence on population trajectories and evolutionary processes. In this study, we aimed to assess the effects of fluctuating densities of both older and younger competing life stages on the habitat selection patterns (described as univariate and multivariate resource selection functions) of young-of-the-year, juvenile and adult brown trout Salmo trutta. We observed all age classes were selective in habitat choice but changed their selection patterns across years consistently with variations in the densities of older but not of younger age classes. Trout of an age increased selectivity for positions highly selected by older individuals when their density decreased, but this pattern did not hold when the density of younger age classes varied. It suggests that younger individuals are dominated by older ones but can expand their range of selected habitats when density of competitors decreases, while older trout do not seem to consider the density of younger individuals when distributing themselves even though they can negatively affect their final performance. Since these results may entail critical implications for conservation and management practices based on habitat selection models, further research should involve a wider range of river typologies and/or longer time frames to fully understand the patterns of and the mechanisms underlying the operation of density dependence on brown trout habitat selection.

Dynamics of the double-crested cormorant population on Lake Ontario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blackwell, Bradley F.; Stapanian, Martin A.; Weseloh, D.V. Chip

2002-01-01

After nearly 30 years of recolonization and expansion across North America, the double-crested cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) occupies the role of a perceived and, in some situations, realized threat to fish stocks and other resources. However, population data necessary to plan, defend, and implement management of this species are few. Our purpose was to gain insight into the relative contribution of various population parameters to the overall rate of population growth and identify data needs critical to improving our understanding of the dynamics of double-crested cormorant populations. We demonstrated the construction of a biologically reasonable representation of cormorant population growth on Lake Ontario (1979-2000) by referencing literature values for fertility, age at first breeding, and survival. These parameters were incorporated into a deterministic stage-classified matrix model. By calculating the elasticity of matrix elements (i.e., statgspecific fertility and survival), we found that cormorant population growth on Lake Ontario was most sensitive to survival of birds about to turn age 3 and older. Finally, we demonstrated how this information could be used to evaluate management scenarios and direct future research by simulating potential environmental effects on fertility and survival, as well as a 5-year egg-oiling program. We also demonstrated that survival of older birds exerts more effective population control than changes in fertility.

Rapid evolution leads to differential population dynamics and top-down control in resurrected Daphnia populations.

PubMed

Goitom, Eyerusalem; Kilsdonk, Laurens J; Brans, Kristien; Jansen, Mieke; Lemmens, Pieter; De Meester, Luc

2018-01-01

There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco-evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow-up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top-down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top-down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S-map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top-down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.

Resource atlases for multi-atlas brain segmentations with multiple ontology levels based on T1-weighted MRI.

PubMed

Wu, Dan; Ma, Ting; Ceritoglu, Can; Li, Yue; Chotiyanonta, Jill; Hou, Zhipeng; Hsu, John; Xu, Xin; Brown, Timothy; Miller, Michael I; Mori, Susumu

2016-01-15

Technologies for multi-atlas brain segmentation of T1-weighted MRI images have rapidly progressed in recent years, with highly promising results. This approach, however, relies on a large number of atlases with accurate and consistent structural identifications. Here, we introduce our atlas inventories (n=90), which cover ages 4-82years with unique hierarchical structural definitions (286 structures at the finest level). This multi-atlas library resource provides the flexibility to choose appropriate atlases for various studies with different age ranges and structure-definition criteria. In this paper, we describe the details of the atlas resources and demonstrate the improved accuracy achievable with a dynamic age-matching approach, in which atlases that most closely match the subject's age are dynamically selected. The advanced atlas creation strategy, together with atlas pre-selection principles, is expected to support the further development of multi-atlas image segmentation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Recasting a model atomistic glassformer as a system of icosahedra

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pinney, Rhiannon; Bristol Centre for Complexity Science, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TS; Liverpool, Tanniemola B.

2015-12-28

We consider a binary Lennard-Jones glassformer whose super-Arrhenius dynamics are correlated with the formation of icosahedral structures. Upon cooling, these icosahedra organize into mesoclusters. We recast this glassformer as an effective system of icosahedra which we describe with a population dynamics model. This model we parameterize with data from the temperature regime accessible to molecular dynamics simulations. We then use the model to determine the population of icosahedra in mesoclusters at arbitrary temperature. Using simulation data to incorporate dynamics into the model, we predict relaxation behavior at temperatures inaccessible to conventional approaches. Our model predicts super-Arrhenius dynamics whose relaxation timemore » remains finite for non-zero temperature.« less

Microbial Community Structures and Dynamics in the O3/BAC Drinking Water Treatment Process

PubMed Central

Tian, Jian; Lu, Jun; Zhang, Yu; Li, Jian-Cheng; Sun, Li-Chen; Hu, Zhang-Li

2014-01-01

Effectiveness of drinking water treatment, in particular pathogen control during the water treatment process, is always a major public health concern. In this investigation, the application of PCR-DGGE technology to the analysis of microbial community structures and dynamics in the drinking water treatment process revealed several dominant microbial populations including: α-Proteobacteria, β-Proteobacteria, γ-Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Actinobacteria Firmicutes and Cyanobacteria. α-Proteobacteria and β-Proteobacteria were the dominant bacteria during the whole process. Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes were the dominant bacteria before and after treatment, respectively. Firmicutes showed season-dependent changes in population dynamics. Importantly, γ-Proteobacteria, which is a class of medically important bacteria, was well controlled by the O3/biological activated carbon (BAC) treatment, resulting in improved effluent water bio-safety. PMID:24937529

Patterns of population genetic variation in sympatric chiltoniid amphipods within a calcrete aquifer reveal a dynamic subterranean environment

PubMed Central

Bradford, T M; Adams, M; Guzik, M T; Humphreys, W F; Austin, A D; Cooper, S JB

2013-01-01

Calcrete aquifers from the Yilgarn region of arid central Western Australia contain an assemblage of obligate groundwater invertebrate species that are each endemic to single aquifers. Fine-scale phylogeographic and population genetic analyses of three sympatric and independently derived species of amphipod (Chiltoniidae) were carried out to determine whether there were common patterns of population genetic structure or evidence for past geographic isolation of populations within a single calcrete aquifer. Genetic diversity in amphipod mitochondrial DNA (cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene) and allozymes were examined across a 3.5 km2 region of the Sturt Meadows calcrete, which contains a grid of 115 bore holes (=wells). Stygobiont amphipods were found to have high levels of mitochondrial haplotype diversity coupled with low nucleotide diversity. Mitochondrial phylogeographic structuring was found between haplogroups for one of the chiltoniid species, which also showed population structuring for nuclear markers. Signatures of population expansion in two of the three species, match previous findings for diving beetles at the same site, indicating that the system is dynamic. We propose isolation of populations in refugia within the calcrete, followed by expansion events, as the most likely source of intraspecific genetic diversity, due to changes in water level influencing gene flow across the calcrete. PMID:23549336

Demographic Changes in Germany up to 2060 – Consequences for Blood Donation

PubMed Central

Ehling, Manfred; Pötzsch, Olga

2010-01-01

Summary This paper outlines the results of a most recent model calculation regarding the structure and development of Germany's population by 2060 with the aim to provide basic demographic data for the future provision of blood components to the population. Firstly, the paper describes the assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and Germany's balance of immigration and emigration which formed the basis for the projection. The following part discusses the results, quantifies future changes in the size and age structure of Germany's population, and illustrates the effects of demographic trends which can be identified from today's point of view. The number of potential blood donors will decline in absolute and relative terms (related to the total population and the age group of ‘non-donors’) in the future. This holds true for both the age bracket of 18 to 68 years and the alternatively chosen age group of 17 to 70 years. Depending on the variant, the population of blood donation age will decrease by one quarter to one third until 2060. PMID:20737016

Simulated bat populations erode when exposed to climate change projections for western North America

PubMed Central

Adams, Rick A.

2017-01-01

Recent research has demonstrated that temperature and precipitation conditions correlate with successful reproduction in some insectivorous bat species that live in arid and semiarid regions, and that hot and dry conditions correlate with reduced lactation and reproductive output by females of some species. However, the potential long-term impacts of climate-induced reproductive declines on bat populations in western North America are not well understood. We combined results from long-term field monitoring and experiments in our study area with information on vital rates to develop stochastic age-structured population dynamics models and analyzed how simulated fringed myotis (Myotis thysanodes) populations changed under projected future climate conditions in our study area near Boulder, Colorado (Boulder Models) and throughout western North America (General Models). Each simulation consisted of an initial population of 2,000 females and an approximately stable age distribution at the beginning of the simulation. We allowed each population to be influenced by the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation for our study area and a generalized range-wide model projected through year 2086, for each of four carbon emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). Each population simulation was repeated 10,000 times. Of the 8 Boulder Model simulations, 1 increased (+29.10%), 3 stayed approximately stable (+2.45%, +0.05%, -0.03%), and 4 simulations decreased substantially (-44.10%, -44.70%, -44.95%, -78.85%). All General Model simulations for western North America decreased by >90% (-93.75%, -96.70%, -96.70%, -98.75%). These results suggest that a changing climate in western North America has the potential to quickly erode some forest bat populations including species of conservation concern, such as fringed myotis. PMID:28686737

Simulated bat populations erode when exposed to climate change projections for western North America.

PubMed

Hayes, Mark A; Adams, Rick A

2017-01-01

Recent research has demonstrated that temperature and precipitation conditions correlate with successful reproduction in some insectivorous bat species that live in arid and semiarid regions, and that hot and dry conditions correlate with reduced lactation and reproductive output by females of some species. However, the potential long-term impacts of climate-induced reproductive declines on bat populations in western North America are not well understood. We combined results from long-term field monitoring and experiments in our study area with information on vital rates to develop stochastic age-structured population dynamics models and analyzed how simulated fringed myotis (Myotis thysanodes) populations changed under projected future climate conditions in our study area near Boulder, Colorado (Boulder Models) and throughout western North America (General Models). Each simulation consisted of an initial population of 2,000 females and an approximately stable age distribution at the beginning of the simulation. We allowed each population to be influenced by the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation for our study area and a generalized range-wide model projected through year 2086, for each of four carbon emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). Each population simulation was repeated 10,000 times. Of the 8 Boulder Model simulations, 1 increased (+29.10%), 3 stayed approximately stable (+2.45%, +0.05%, -0.03%), and 4 simulations decreased substantially (-44.10%, -44.70%, -44.95%, -78.85%). All General Model simulations for western North America decreased by >90% (-93.75%, -96.70%, -96.70%, -98.75%). These results suggest that a changing climate in western North America has the potential to quickly erode some forest bat populations including species of conservation concern, such as fringed myotis.

Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part I: Introducing knowledge into the dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmieder, R.W.

The author presents a new approach for modeling the dynamics of collections of objects with internal structure. Based on the fact that the behavior of an individual in a population is modified by its knowledge of other individuals, a procedure for accounting for knowledge in a population of interacting objects is presented. It is assumed that each object has partial (or complete) knowledge of some (or all) other objects in the population. The dynamical equations for the objects are then modified to include the effects of this pairwise knowledge. This procedure has the effect of projecting out what the populationmore » will do from the much larger space of what it could do, i.e., filtering or smoothing the dynamics by replacing the complex detailed physical model with an effective model that produces the behavior of interest. The procedure therefore provides a minimalist approach for obtaining emergent collective behavior. The use of knowledge as a dynamical quantity, and its relationship to statistical mechanics, thermodynamics, information theory, and cognition microstructure are discussed.« less

Elevated correlations in neuronal ensembles of mouse auditory cortex following parturition.

PubMed

Rothschild, Gideon; Cohen, Lior; Mizrahi, Adi; Nelken, Israel

2013-07-31

The auditory cortex is malleable by experience. Previous studies of auditory plasticity have described experience-dependent changes in response profiles of single neurons or changes in global tonotopic organization. However, experience-dependent changes in the dynamics of local neural populations have remained unexplored. In this study, we examined the influence of a dramatic yet natural experience in the life of female mice, giving birth and becoming a mother on single neurons and neuronal ensembles in the primary auditory cortex (A1). Using in vivo two-photon calcium imaging and electrophysiological recordings from layer 2/3 in A1 of mothers and age-matched virgin mice, we monitored changes in the responses to a set of artificial and natural sounds. Population dynamics underwent large changes as measured by pairwise and higher-order correlations, with noise correlations increasing as much as twofold in lactating mothers. Concomitantly, changes in response properties of single neurons were modest and selective. Remarkably, despite the large changes in correlations, information about stimulus identity remained essentially the same in the two groups. Our results demonstrate changes in the correlation structure of neuronal activity as a result of a natural life event.

Evidence of sustained populations of a small reef fish on artificial structures. Does depth affect production on artificial reefs?

PubMed

Fowler, A M; Booth, D J

2012-03-01

The length frequencies and age structures of resident Pseudanthias rubrizonatus (n = 407), a small protogynous serranid, were measured at four isolated artificial structures on the continental shelf of north-western Australia between June and August 2008, to determine whether these structures supported full (complete size and age-structured) populations of this species. The artificial structures were located in depths between 82 and 135 m, and growth rates of juveniles and adults, and body condition of adults, were compared among structures to determine the effect of depth on potential production. All life-history stages, including recently settled juveniles, females and terminal males, of P. rubrizonatus were caught, ranging in standard length (L(s)) from 16·9 to 96·5 mm. Presumed ages estimated from whole and sectioned otoliths ranged between 22 days and 5 years, and parameter ±s.e. estimates of the von Bertalanffy growth model were L(∞) = 152 ± 34 mm, k = 0·15(±0·05) and t(0) = -1·15(±0·15). Estimated annual growth rates were similar between shallow and deep artificial structures; however, otolith lengths and recent growth of juveniles differed among individual structures, irrespective of depth. The artificial structures therefore sustained full populations of P. rubrizonatus, from recently settled juveniles through to adults; however, confirmation of the maximum age attainable for the species is required from natural populations. Depth placement of artificial reefs may not affect the production of fish species with naturally wide depth ranges. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2012 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

A generative inference framework for analysing patterns of cultural change in sparse population data with evidence for fashion trends in LBK culture.

PubMed

Kandler, Anne; Shennan, Stephen

2015-12-06

Cultural change can be quantified by temporal changes in frequency of different cultural artefacts and it is a central question to identify what underlying cultural transmission processes could have caused the observed frequency changes. Observed changes, however, often describe the dynamics in samples of the population of artefacts, whereas transmission processes act on the whole population. Here we develop a modelling framework aimed at addressing this inference problem. To do so, we firstly generate population structures from which the observed sample could have been drawn randomly and then determine theoretical samples at a later time t2 produced under the assumption that changes in frequencies are caused by a specific transmission process. Thereby we also account for the potential effect of time-averaging processes in the generation of the observed sample. Subsequent statistical comparisons (e.g. using Bayesian inference) of the theoretical and observed samples at t2 can establish which processes could have produced the observed frequency data. In this way, we infer underlying transmission processes directly from available data without any equilibrium assumption. We apply this framework to a dataset describing pottery from settlements of some of the first farmers in Europe (the LBK culture) and conclude that the observed frequency dynamic of different types of decorated pottery is consistent with age-dependent selection, a preference for 'young' pottery types which is potentially indicative of fashion trends. © 2015 The Author(s).

The effects of host age, host nuclear background and temperature on phenotypic effects of the virulent Wolbachia strain popcorn in Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed Central

Reynolds, K Tracy; Thomson, Linda J; Hoffmann, Ary A

2003-01-01

Because of their obligate endosymbiotic nature, Wolbachia strains by necessity are defined by their phenotypic effects upon their host. Nevertheless, studies on the influence of host background and environmental conditions upon the manifestation of Wolbachia effects are relatively uncommon. Here we examine the behavior of the overreplicating Wolbachia strain popcorn in four different Drosophila melanogaster backgrounds at two temperatures. Unlike other strains of Wolbachia in Drosophila, popcorn has a major fitness impact upon its hosts. The rapid proliferation of popcorn causes cells to rupture, resulting in the premature death of adult hosts. Apart from this effect, we found that popcorn delayed development time, and host background influenced both this trait and the rate of mortality associated with infection. Temperature influenced the impact of popcorn upon host mortality, with no reduction in life span occurring in flies reared at 19 degrees. No effect upon fecundity was found. Contrary to earlier reports, popcorn induced high levels of incompatibility when young males were used in tests, and CI levels declined rapidly with male age. The population dynamics of popcorn-type infections will therefore depend on environmental temperature, host background, and the age structure of the population. PMID:12871912

Effects of aging on sleep structure throughout adulthood: a population-based study.

PubMed

Moraes, Walter; Piovezan, Ronaldo; Poyares, Dalva; Bittencourt, Lia Rita; Santos-Silva, Rogerio; Tufik, Sergio

2014-04-01

Although many studies have shown the evolution of sleep parameters across the lifespan, not many have included a representative sample of the general population. The objective of this study was to describe age-related changes in sleep structure, sleep respiratory parameters and periodic limb movements of the adult population of São Paulo. We selected a representative sample of the city of São Paulo, Brazil that included both genders and an age range of 20-80 years. Pregnant and lactating women, people with physical or mental impairments that prevent self-care and people who work every night were not included. This sample included 1024 individuals who were submitted to polysomnography and structured interviews. We subdivided our sample into five-year age groups. One-way analysis of variance was used to compare age groups. Pearson product-moment was used to evaluate correlation between age and sleep parameters. Total sleep time, sleep efficiency, percentage of rapid eye movement (REM) sleep and slow wave sleep showed a significant age-related decrease (P<0.05). WASO (night-time spent awake after sleep onset), arousal index, sleep latency, REM sleep latency, and the percentage of stages 1 and 2 showed a significant increase (P<0.05). Furthermore, apnea-hypopnea index increased and oxygen saturation decreased with age. The reduction in the percentage of REM sleep significantly correlated with age in women, whereas the reduction in the percentage of slow wave sleep correlated with age in men. The periodic limb movement (PLM) index increased with age in men and women. Sleep structure and duration underwent significant alterations throughout the aging process in the general population. There was an important correlation between age, sleep respiratory parameters and PLM index. In addition, men and women showed similar trends but with different effect sizes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability of a killer whale social network to disease outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães, Paulo R., Jr.; de Menezes, Márcio Argollo; Baird, Robin W.; Lusseau, David; Guimarães, Paulo; Dos Reis, Sérgio F.

2007-10-01

Emerging infectious diseases are among the main threats to conservation of biological diversity. A crucial task facing epidemiologists is to predict the vulnerability of populations of endangered animals to disease outbreaks. In this context, the network structure of social interactions within animal populations may affect disease spreading. However, endangered animal populations are often small and to investigate the dynamics of small networks is a difficult task. Using network theory, we show that the social structure of an endangered population of mammal-eating killer whales is vulnerable to disease outbreaks. This feature was found to be a consequence of the combined effects of the topology and strength of social links among individuals. Our results uncover a serious challenge for conservation of the species and its ecosystem. In addition, this study shows that the network approach can be useful to study dynamical processes in very small networks.

Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density-dependence in eastern brook trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bassar, Ronald D.; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Nislow, Keith H.; Whiteley, Andrew R.

2016-01-01

Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density-independent) factors and intrinsic (density-dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density-dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) versus density-dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10-year capture-mark-recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete-time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density-dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate-driven environmental change.

Signals of large scale climate drivers, hatchery enhancement, and marine factors in Yukon River Chinook salmon survival revealed with a Bayesian life history model.

PubMed

Cunningham, Curry J; Westley, Peter A H; Adkison, Milo D

2018-05-18

Understanding how species might respond to climate change involves disentangling the influence of co-occurring environmental factors on population dynamics, and is especially problematic for migratory species like Pacific salmon that move between ecosystems. To date, debate surrounding the causes of recent declines in Yukon River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance has centered on whether factors in freshwater or marine environments control variation in survival, and how these populations at the northern extremity of the species range will respond to climate change. To estimate the effect of factors in marine and freshwater environments on Chinook salmon survival, we constructed a stage-structured assessment model that incorporates the best available data, estimates incidental marine bycatch mortality in trawl fisheries, and uses Bayesian model selection methods to quantify support for alternative hypotheses. Models fitted to two index populations of Yukon River Chinook salmon indicate that processes in the nearshore and marine environments are the most important determinants of survival. Specifically, survival declines when ice leaves the Yukon River later in the spring, increases with wintertime temperature in the Bering Sea, and declines with the abundance of globally enhanced salmon species consistent with competition at sea. In addition, we found support for density-dependent survival limitations in freshwater but not marine portions of the life cycle, increasing average survival with ocean age, and age-specific selectivity of bycatch mortality in the Bering Sea. This study underscores the utility of flexible estimation models capable of fitting multiple data types and evaluating mortality from both natural and anthropogenic sources in multiple habitats. Overall, these analyses suggest that mortality at sea is the primary driver of population dynamics, yet under a warming climate Chinook salmon populations at the northern extent of the species' range may be expected to fare better than southern populations, but are influenced by foreign salmon production. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Model structure of the stream salmonid simulator (S3)—A dynamic model for simulating growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmonids

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Russell W.; Plumb, John M.; Jones, Edward C.; Som, Nicholas A.; Hetrick, Nicholas J.; Hardy, Thomas B.

2018-04-06

Fisheries and water managers often use population models to aid in understanding the effect of alternative water management or restoration actions on anadromous fish populations. We developed the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) to help resource managers evaluate the effect of management alternatives on juvenile salmonid populations. S3 is a deterministic stage-structured population model that tracks daily growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmon. A key theme of the model is that river flow affects habitat availability and capacity, which in turn drives density dependent population dynamics. To explicitly link population dynamics to habitat quality and quantity, the river environment is constructed as a one-dimensional series of linked habitat units, each of which has an associated daily time series of discharge, water temperature, and usable habitat area or carrying capacity. The physical characteristics of each habitat unit and the number of fish occupying each unit, in turn, drive survival and growth within each habitat unit and movement of fish among habitat units.The purpose of this report is to outline the underlying general structure of the S3 model that is common among different applications of the model. We have developed applications of the S3 model for juvenile fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the lower Klamath River. Thus, this report is a companion to current application of the S3 model to the Trinity River (in review). The general S3 model structure provides a biological and physical framework for the salmonid freshwater life cycle. This framework captures important demographics of juvenile salmonids aimed at translating management alternatives into simulated population responses. Although the S3 model is built on this common framework, the model has been constructed to allow much flexibility in application of the model to specific river systems. The ability for practitioners to include system-specific information for the physical stream structure, survival, growth, and movement processes ensures that simulations provide results that are relevant to the questions asked about the population under study.

Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

PubMed

Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

2018-02-03

For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

Travelling Wave Solutions in Multigroup Age-Structured Epidemic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ducrot, Arnaut; Magal, Pierre; Ruan, Shigui

2010-01-01

Age-structured epidemic models have been used to describe either the age of individuals or the age of infection of certain diseases and to determine how these characteristics affect the outcomes and consequences of epidemiological processes. Most results on age-structured epidemic models focus on the existence, uniqueness, and convergence to disease equilibria of solutions. In this paper we investigate the existence of travelling wave solutions in a deterministic age-structured model describing the circulation of a disease within a population of multigroups. Individuals of each group are able to move with a random walk which is modelled by the classical Fickian diffusion and are classified into two subclasses, susceptible and infective. A susceptible individual in a given group can be crisscross infected by direct contact with infective individuals of possibly any group. This process of transmission can depend upon the age of the disease of infected individuals. The goal of this paper is to provide sufficient conditions that ensure the existence of travelling wave solutions for the age-structured epidemic model. The case of two population groups is numerically investigated which applies to the crisscross transmission of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and some sexual transmission diseases.

Different Context but Similar Cognitive Structures: Older Adults in Rural Bangladesh.

PubMed

Sternäng, Ola; Lövdén, Martin; Kabir, Zarina N; Hamadani, Jena D; Wahlin, Åke

2016-06-01

Most research in cognitive aging is based on literate participants from high-income and Western populations. The extent to which findings generalize to low-income and illiterate populations is unknown. The main aim was to examine the structure of between-person differences in cognitive functions among elderly from rural Bangladesh. We used data from the Poverty and Health in Aging (PHA) project in Bangladesh. The participants (n = 452) were in the age range 60-92 years. Structural equation modeling was used to estimate the fit of a five-factor model (episodic recall, episodic recognition, verbal fluency, semantic knowledge, processing speed) and to examine whether the model generalized across age, sex, and literacy. This study demonstrates that an established model of cognition is valid also among older persons from rural Bangladesh. The model demonstrated strong (or scalar) invariance for age, and partial strong invariance for sex and literacy. Semantic knowledge and processing speed showed weak (or metric) sex invariance, and semantic knowledge demonstrated also sensitivity to illiteracy. In general, women performed poorer on all abilities. The structure of individual cognitive differences established in Western populations also fits a population in rural Bangladesh well. This is an important prerequisite for comparisons of cognitive functioning (e.g., declarative memory) across cultures. It is also worth noting that absolute sex differences in cognitive performance among rural elderly in Bangladesh differ from those usually found in Western samples.

Aspiration dynamics in structured population acts as if in a well-mixed one.

PubMed

Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Wang, Long

2015-01-26

Understanding the evolution of human interactive behaviors is important. Recent experimental results suggest that human cooperation in spatial structured population is not enhanced as predicted in previous works, when payoff-dependent imitation updating rules are used. This constraint opens up an avenue to shed light on how humans update their strategies in real life. Studies via simulations show that, instead of comparison rules, self-evaluation driven updating rules may explain why spatial structure does not alter the evolutionary outcome. Though inspiring, there is a lack of theoretical result to show the existence of such evolutionary updating rule. Here we study the aspiration dynamics, and show that it does not alter the evolutionary outcome in various population structures. Under weak selection, by analytical approximation, we find that the favored strategy in regular graphs is invariant. Further, we show that this is because the criterion under which a strategy is favored is the same as that of a well-mixed population. By simulation, we show that this holds for random networks. Although how humans update their strategies is an open question to be studied, our results provide a theoretical foundation of the updating rules that may capture the real human updating rules.

Aging in Mexico: Population Trends and Emerging Issues

PubMed Central

Vega, William; López-Ortega, Mariana

2017-01-01

Abstract Although all nations in the America’s face a common demographic reality of longevity, declining fertility rates and changes in family roles a growing body of research points to a dramatic demographic transformation in Mexico. Although Mexico’s population is relatively young, with a median age of 27.9 in 2015, it will age rapidly in coming years, increasing to 42 years by 2050. The rapid median age in the nation also reflects the growing proportion of people 65 or older, and is expected to triple to 20.2% by 2050. This article examines how the age and gender structure of Mexico offers important insights about current and future political and social stability, as well as economic development. Mexico is the world’s eleventh largest country in terms of population size and the “demographic dividend” of a large youthful population is giving way to a growing older population that will inevitably place demands on health care and social security. The shift in age structure will result in increased dependency of retirees on the working-age population in the next 20 years. Mexico does not provide universal coverage of social security benefits and less than half of the labor force is covered by any pension or retirement plan. As a result, elderly Mexicans often continue working into old age. The high total poverty rate in the country, especially among the older population magnifies the problem of the potential dependency burden. The article ends with a discussion of key public policy issues related to aging in Mexico. PMID:27927730

Small mammal populations at hazardous waste disposal sites near Houston, Texas, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, C.S.

1990-01-01

Small mammals were trapped, tagged and recaptured in 0?45 ha plots at six hazardous industrial waste disposal sites to determine if populations, body mass and age structures were different from paired control site plots. Low numbers of six species of small mammals were captured on industrial waste sites or control sites. Only populations of hispid cotton rats at industrial waste sites and control sites were large enough for comparisons. Overall population numbers, age structure, and body mass of adult male and female cotton rats were similar at industrial waste sites and control sites. Populations of small mammals (particularly hispid cotton rats) may not suffice as indicators of environments with hazardous industrial waste contamination.

The Influence of Individual Variability on Zooplankton Population Dynamics under Different Environmental Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, R.; Liu, H.

2016-02-01

Understanding how biological components respond to environmental changes could be insightful to predict ecosystem trajectories under different climate scenarios. Zooplankton are key components of marine ecosystems and changes in their dynamics could have major impact on ecosystem structure. We developed an individual-based model of a common coastal calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa to examine how environmental factors affect zooplankton population dynamics and explore the role of individual variability in sustaining population under various environmental conditions consisting of temperature, food concentration and salinity. Total abundance, egg production and proportion of survival were used to measure population success. Results suggested population benefits from high level of individual variability under extreme environmental conditions including unfavorable temperature, salinity, as well as low food concentration, and selection on fast-growers becomes stronger with increasing individual variability and increasing environmental stress. Multiple regression analysis showed that temperature, food concentration, salinity and individual variability have significant effects on survival of A. tonsa population. These results suggest that environmental factors have great influence on zooplankton population, and individual variability has important implications for population survivability under unfavorable conditions. Given that marine ecosystems are at risk from drastic environmental changes, understanding how individual variability sustains populations could increase our capability to predict population dynamics in a changing environment.

Interplay between Shear Loading and Structural Aging in a Physical Gelatin Gel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ronsin, O.; Caroli, C.; Baumberger, T.

2009-09-25

We show that the aging of the mechanical relaxation of a gelatin gel exhibits the same scaling phenomenology as polymer and colloidal glasses. In addition, gelatin is known to exhibit logarithmic structural aging (stiffening). We find that stress accelerates this process. However, this effect is definitely irreducible to a mere age shift with respect to natural aging. We suggest that it is interpretable in terms of elastically aided elementary (coil->helix) local events whose dynamics gradually slows down as aging increases geometric frustration.

SAM Works! A Systems Approach Model for Adult Education Programming.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murk, Peter J.; Wells, John H.

The Systems Approach Model (SAM) is a dynamic approach to planning adult and continuing education that is intended to provide the flexibility, creativity, and meaningfulness necessary to meet the needs and interests of an ever-expanding and ever-aging student population. The SAM model consists of the following dynamically interrelated and…

Unintentional fall-related mortality in the elderly: comparing patterns in two countries with different demographic structure

PubMed Central

Majdan, Marek; Mauritz, Walter

2015-01-01

Objectives Falls are among the major external causes of unintentional injury and injury-related mortality in the elderly. The aim of this study was to compare the patterns of unintentional fall-related mortalities in two countries with different demographic structure: Slovakia and Austria in 2003–2010. Methods A study was conducted using death certificate data, trends of fall-related mortality in the elderly (over 65 years) in Austria and Slovakia were compared. Crude and age-standardised mortality rates were calculated. Rate ratios were used to quantify differences based on age, sex and country. The role of demographic structure and population ageing was considered. Results The annual average crude mortality for Slovakia was 28.82, for Austria 54.19 per 100 000 person-years. Increasing rates were observed towards higher age in both countries. Males had higher mortality than females (1.18 times higher in Austria, 2.4 higher in Slovakia). In ages over 75 years rates were significantly higher in Austria, compared to Slovakia. Injuries to head (in males) and hip (in females) were most commonly the underlying cause of death. The proportion of populations over 65 and over 80 and rate of their increase were higher in Austria than in Slovakia. Conclusions We conclude that higher proportions of the elderly population of Austria could have contributed to the higher fall-related mortality rates compared to Slovakia, especially in females over 80 years. Our study quantified the differences between two countries with different structure of the elderly population and these findings could be used in planning future needs of health and social services and to plan prevention in countries where a rapid increase in age of the population can be foreseen. PMID:26270950

Threshold Dynamics of a Temperature-Dependent Stage-Structured Mosquito Population Model with Nested Delays.

PubMed

Wang, Xiunan; Zou, Xingfu

2018-05-21

Mosquito-borne diseases remain a significant threat to public health and economics. Since mosquitoes are quite sensitive to temperature, global warming may not only worsen the disease transmission case in current endemic areas but also facilitate mosquito population together with pathogens to establish in new regions. Therefore, understanding mosquito population dynamics under the impact of temperature is considerably important for making disease control policies. In this paper, we develop a stage-structured mosquito population model in the environment of a temperature-controlled experiment. The model turns out to be a system of periodic delay differential equations with periodic delays. We show that the basic reproduction number is a threshold parameter which determines whether the mosquito population goes to extinction or remains persistent. We then estimate the parameter values for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits dengue virus. We verify the analytic result by numerical simulations with the temperature data of Colombo, Sri Lanka where a dengue outbreak occurred in 2017.

Coastal oceanography sets the pace of rocky intertidal community dynamics.

PubMed

Menge, B A; Lubchenco, J; Bracken, M E S; Chan, F; Foley, M M; Freidenburg, T L; Gaines, S D; Hudson, G; Krenz, C; Leslie, H; Menge, D N L; Russell, R; Webster, M S

2003-10-14

The structure of ecological communities reflects a tension among forces that alter populations. Marine ecologists previously emphasized control by locally operating forces (predation, competition, and disturbance), but newer studies suggest that inputs from large-scale oceanographically modulated subsidies (nutrients, particulates, and propagules) can strongly influence community structure and dynamics. On New Zealand rocky shores, the magnitude of such subsidies differs profoundly between contrasting oceanographic regimes. Community structure, and particularly the pace of community dynamics, differ dramatically between intermittent upwelling regimes compared with relatively persistent down-welling regimes. We suggest that subsidy rates are a key determinant of the intensity of species interactions, and thus of structure in marine systems, and perhaps also nonmarine communities.

THE VELOCITY DISTRIBUTION OF NEARBY STARS FROM HIPPARCOS DATA. II. THE NATURE OF THE LOW-VELOCITY MOVING GROUPS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bovy, Jo; Hogg, David W., E-mail: jo.bovy@nyu.ed

2010-07-10

The velocity distribution of nearby stars ({approx}<100 pc) contains many overdensities or 'moving groups', clumps of comoving stars, that are inconsistent with the standard assumption of an axisymmetric, time-independent, and steady-state Galaxy. We study the age and metallicity properties of the low-velocity moving groups based on the reconstruction of the local velocity distribution in Paper I of this series. We perform stringent, conservative hypothesis testing to establish for each of these moving groups whether it could conceivably consist of a coeval population of stars. We conclude that they do not: the moving groups are neither trivially associated with their eponymousmore » open clusters nor with any other inhomogeneous star formation event. Concerning a possible dynamical origin of the moving groups, we test whether any of the moving groups has a higher or lower metallicity than the background population of thin disk stars, as would generically be the case if the moving groups are associated with resonances of the bar or spiral structure. We find clear evidence that the Hyades moving group has higher than average metallicity and weak evidence that the Sirius moving group has lower than average metallicity, which could indicate that these two groups are related to the inner Lindblad resonance of the spiral structure. Further, we find weak evidence that the Hercules moving group has higher than average metallicity, as would be the case if it is associated with the bar's outer Lindblad resonance. The Pleiades moving group shows no clear metallicity anomaly, arguing against a common dynamical origin for the Hyades and Pleiades groups. Overall, however, the moving groups are barely distinguishable from the background population of stars, raising the likelihood that the moving groups are associated with transient perturbations.« less

Animal responses to natural disturbance and climate extremes: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sergio, Fabrizio; Blas, Julio; Hiraldo, Fernando

2018-02-01

Natural disturbances, such as droughts, fires or hurricanes, are key drivers of ecological heterogeneity and ecosystem function. The frequency and severity of these episodes is unequivocally expected to increase in the coming decades, through the concerted action of climate change and anthropogenic pressures. This will impose severe challenges for many biota through exposure to rapidly changing conditions never experienced in the preceding millennia. Thus, it is urgently needed to gain a thorough understanding of animal responses and adaptations to disturbances in order to better estimate potential future impacts. Here, we review such adjustments and find that animals may respond to disturbances through changes in: (1) behaviour, such as altered mobility, emigration, resource-switching, refuge use, suspended animation, or biotic interactions; (2) life history traits, such as survival, aging, longevity, recruitment, reproductive restraint, breeding output, phenology and bet-hedging tactics; (3) morphology, such as rapid evolution through size-dependent mortality or facultative metamorphosis; (4) physiology, such as altered body condition, pathogen prevalence and transmission, or adrenocortical modulation of stress responses to emergency conditions; (5) genetic structure, such as changes in frequency of polymorphic variants or diversity-modulation through mortality bottlenecks. Individual-level responses scale up to population and community responses, such as altered density, population dynamics, distribution, local extinction and colonization, or assemblage structure and diversity. Overall, disturbances have pervasive effects on individuals, populations and communities of vertebrates and invertebrates of all realms, biomes, continents and ecosystems. Their rapidly increasing incidence and severity will bring unique study opportunities for researchers and novel, unpredictable challenges for managers, while demanding tougher choices and more proactive crisis-preparation for conservationists, as well as mentality changes for all. Under all conditions, disturbances may soon become the defining signatures of most ecosystems and the dynamic leitmotif of modern ecology.

Host age modulates within-host parasite competition.

PubMed

Izhar, Rony; Routtu, Jarkko; Ben-Ami, Frida

2015-05-01

In many host populations, one of the most striking differences among hosts is their age. While parasite prevalence differences in relation to host age are well known, little is known on how host age impacts ecological and evolutionary dynamics of diseases. Using two clones of the water flea Daphnia magna and two clones of its bacterial parasite Pasteuria ramosa, we examined how host age at exposure influences within-host parasite competition and virulence. We found that multiply-exposed hosts were more susceptible to infection and suffered higher mortality than singly-exposed hosts. Hosts oldest at exposure were least often infected and vice versa. Furthermore, we found that in young multiply-exposed hosts competition was weak, allowing coexistence and transmission of both parasite clones, whereas in older multiply-exposed hosts competitive exclusion was observed. Thus, age-dependent parasite exposure and host demography (age structure) could together play an important role in mediating parasite evolution. At the individual level, our results demonstrate a previously unnoticed interaction of the host's immune system with host age, suggesting that the specificity of immune function changes as hosts mature. Therefore, evolutionary models of parasite virulence might benefit from incorporating age-dependent epidemiological parameters. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Single, childless working women's construction of wellbeing: On balance, being dynamic and tensions between them.

PubMed

Engler, Kim; Frohlich, Katherine; Descarries, Francine; Fernet, Mylène

2011-01-01

Single, childless working women (SCWW) are a notable proportion of the female workforce. The budding research on this population suggests that they have issues of wellbeing that may be tied to specific needs of both their workplaces and their personal lives, and hence, distinct work-life dynamics that require attention. This study explores how SCWW construct their wellbeing. The sample was composed of 22 SCWW aged 29 to 45. A discourse analysis of the transcripts of semi-structured interviews with these women was performed. Most women drew on an interpretative repertoire of "wellbeing as balance" (e.g., diversification and reasonable dosing of life's dimensions). It was associated with a recurrent subject position we have termed "the dynamic woman" whose intensity transfused talk of the activities in her life. Here, work becomes a "passion" and a source of appreciated challenges. However, a dilemma could arise from these constructions for positioning oneself in relation to the cadence of one's active life or rather, in articulating an unambiguous claim to balance. Balance/dosing and dynamicity/passion can be uneasy bedfellows. Our analyses raise questions about possible counter[balancing] discourses and further argue the relevance of work-life issues for SCWW.

Turnover of Village Chickens Undermines Vaccine Coverage to Control HPAI H5N1.

PubMed

Villanueva-Cabezas, J P; Campbell, P T; McCaw, J M; Durr, P A; McVernon, J

2017-02-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 remains an enzootic disease of village chickens in Indonesia, posing ongoing risk at the animal-human interface. Previous modelling showed that the fast natural turnover of chicken populations might undermine herd immunity after vaccination, although actual details of how this effect applies to Indonesia's village chicken population have not been determined. We explored the turnover effect in Indonesia's scavenging and mixed populations of village chickens using an extended Leslie matrix model parameterized with data collected from village chicken flocks in Java region, Indonesia. Population dynamics were simulated for 208 weeks; the turnover effect was simulated for 16 weeks after vaccination in two 'best case' scenarios, where the whole population (scenario 1), or birds aged over 14 days (scenario 2), were vaccinated. We found that the scavenging and mixed populations have different productive traits. When steady-state dynamics are reached, both populations are dominated by females (54.5%), and 'growers' and 'chicks' represent the most abundant age stages with 39% and 38% in the scavenging, and 60% and 25% in the mixed population, respectively. Simulations showed that the population turnover might reduce the herd immunity below the critical threshold that prevents the re-emergence of HPAI H5N1 4-8 weeks (scavenging) and 6-9 weeks (mixed population) after vaccination in scenario 1, and 2-6 weeks (scavenging) and 4-7 weeks (mixed population) after vaccination in scenario 2. In conclusion, we found that Indonesia's village chicken population does not have a unique underlying population dynamic and therefore, different turnover effects on herd immunity may be expected after vaccination; nonetheless, our simulations carried out in best case scenarios highlight the limitations of current vaccine technologies to control HPAI H5N1. This suggests that the improvements and complementary strategies are necessary and must be explored. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Evolutionary dynamics on graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lieberman, Erez; Hauert, Christoph; Nowak, Martin A.

2005-01-01

Evolutionary dynamics have been traditionally studied in the context of homogeneous or spatially extended populations. Here we generalize population structure by arranging individuals on a graph. Each vertex represents an individual. The weighted edges denote reproductive rates which govern how often individuals place offspring into adjacent vertices. The homogeneous population, described by the Moran process, is the special case of a fully connected graph with evenly weighted edges. Spatial structures are described by graphs where vertices are connected with their nearest neighbours. We also explore evolution on random and scale-free networks. We determine the fixation probability of mutants, and characterize those graphs for which fixation behaviour is identical to that of a homogeneous population. Furthermore, some graphs act as suppressors and others as amplifiers of selection. It is even possible to find graphs that guarantee the fixation of any advantageous mutant. We also study frequency-dependent selection and show that the outcome of evolutionary games can depend entirely on the structure of the underlying graph. Evolutionary graph theory has many fascinating applications ranging from ecology to multi-cellular organization and economics.

Spatial dynamics of invasion: the geometry of introduced species.

PubMed

Korniss, Gyorgy; Caraco, Thomas

2005-03-07

Many exotic species combine low probability of establishment at each introduction with rapid population growth once introduction does succeed. To analyse this phenomenon, we note that invaders often cluster spatially when rare, and consequently an introduced exotic's population dynamics should depend on locally structured interactions. Ecological theory for spatially structured invasion relies on deterministic approximations, and determinism does not address the observed uncertainty of the exotic-introduction process. We take a new approach to the population dynamics of invasion and, by extension, to the general question of invasibility in any spatial ecology. We apply the physical theory for nucleation of spatial systems to a lattice-based model of competition between plant species, a resident and an invader, and the analysis reaches conclusions that differ qualitatively from the standard ecological theories. Nucleation theory distinguishes between dynamics of single- and multi-cluster invasion. Low introduction rates and small system size produce single-cluster dynamics, where success or failure of introduction is inherently stochastic. Single-cluster invasion occurs only if the cluster reaches a critical size, typically preceded by a number of failed attempts. For this case, we identify the functional form of the probability distribution of time elapsing until invasion succeeds. Although multi-cluster invasion for sufficiently large systems exhibits spatial averaging and almost-deterministic dynamics of the global densities, an analytical approximation from nucleation theory, known as Avrami's law, describes our simulation results far better than standard ecological approximations.

Effects of Dynamical Evolution on Globular Clusters’ Internal Kinematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiongco, Maria; Vesperini, Enrico; Varri, Anna Lisa

2018-01-01

The synergy between recent photometric, spectroscopic, and astrometric studies is revealing that globular clusters deviate from the traditional picture of dynamically simple and single stellar population systems. Complex kinematical features such as velocity anisotropy and rotation, and the existence of multiple stellar populations are some of the key observational findings. My thesis work has aimed to build a theoretical framework to interpret these new observational results and to understand their link with a globular cluster’s dynamical history.I have focused on the study of the evolution of globular clusters' internal kinematics, as driven by two-body relaxation, and the interplay between internal angular momentum and the external Galactic tidal field. With a specifically-designed, large survey of direct N-body simulations, I have explored the three-dimensional structure of the velocity space of tidally-perturbed clusters, by characterizing their degree of anisotropy and their rotational properties. These studies have proved that a cluster's kinematical properties contain a distinct imprints of the cluster’s initial structural properties, dynamical history, and tidal environment. By relaxing a number of simplifying assumptions that are traditionally imposed, I have also showed how the interplay between a cluster's internal evolution and the interaction with the host galaxy can produce complex morphological and kinematical properties, such as a counter-rotating core and a twisting of the projected isodensity contours.Building on this fundamental understanding, I have then studied the dynamics of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters, with attention to the largely unexplored role of angular momentum. I have analyzed the evolution of clusters with stellar populations characterized by different initial structural and kinematical properties to determine how long these differences are preserved, and in what cases they could still be observable in present-day systems.This body of results provides essential guidance for a meaningful interpretation of the emerging dynamical complexity of globular clusters in the era of Gaia and other upcoming large spectroscopic surveys.

Estimating malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes in a noisy landscape

PubMed Central

Reiner, Robert C.; Guerra, Carlos; Donnelly, Martin J.; Bousema, Teun; Drakeley, Chris; Smith, David L.

2015-01-01

A basic quantitative understanding of malaria transmission requires measuring the probability a mosquito becomes infected after feeding on a human. Parasite prevalence in mosquitoes is highly age-dependent, and the unknown age-structure of fluctuating mosquito populations impedes estimation. Here, we simulate mosquito infection dynamics, where mosquito recruitment is modelled seasonally with fractional Brownian noise, and we develop methods for estimating mosquito infection rates. We find that noise introduces bias, but the magnitude of the bias depends on the ‘colour' of the noise. Some of these problems can be overcome by increasing the sampling frequency, but estimates of transmission rates (and estimated reductions in transmission) are most accurate and precise if they combine parity, oocyst rates and sporozoite rates. These studies provide a basis for evaluating the adequacy of various entomological sampling procedures for measuring malaria parasite transmission from humans to mosquitoes and for evaluating the direct transmission-blocking effects of a vaccine. PMID:26400195

Neighbourhood reaction in the evolution of cooperation.

PubMed

Yang, Guoli; Zhang, Weiming; Xiu, Baoxin

2015-05-07

Combining evolutionary games with adaptive networks, an entangled model between strategy evolution and structure adaptation is researched in this paper. We consider a large population of cooperators C and defectors D placed in the networks, playing the repeated prisoner׳s dilemma (PD) games. Because of the conflicts between social welfare and personal rationality, both strategy and structure are allowed to change. In this paper, the dynamics of strategy originates form the partner imitation based on social learning and the dynamics of structure is driven by the active linking and neighbourhood reaction. Notably, the neighbourhood reaction is investigated considering the changes of interfaces between cooperators and defectors, where some neighbours may get away from the interface once the focal agent changes to different strategy. A rich landscape is demonstrated by changing various embedding parameters, which sheds light upon that reacting promptly to the shifted neighbour will promote the prevalence of cooperation. Our model encapsulates the dynamics of strategy, reaction and structure into the evolutionary games, which manifests some intriguing principles in the competition between two groups in natural populations, artificial systems and even human societies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Age dynamics of genetic variation in an isolated population of chalk pine Pinus sylvestris var. cretacea Kalenicz. ex Kom. from Donbass].

PubMed

Korshikov, I I; Mudrik, E A

2006-05-01

Based on analysis of variation at ten allozyme loci in three age groups (25-35, 40-80, and more than 100 years of age) of plants and in seed embryos, demographic dynamics of the gene pools was studied in a small (60.5 ha) isolated relict population of chalk pine Pinus sylvestris var. cretacea Kalenicz. ex Kom. from the steppe zone of Ukraine. The observed grenotype proportions in these tree groups were shown to fit Hardy-Weinberg expectations, while in the embryos of their seeds, an excess of homozygotes was observed at five to nine loci. The mean observed heterozygosity in the sample of old (> 100 years of age) trees (H(O) = 0.225) was substantially lower than in trees of the two other age groups (H(O) = 0.307; 0.311), but significantly higher than in the corresponding embryo samples (H(O) = 0.183-0.207). No allele and genotype heterogeneity of the maternal trees and embryos of their seeds was found. However, heterogeneity was high when the progeny of trees of different ages, particularly in pairs with old trees, were compared.

Metapopulation Structure and Dynamics of an Endangered Butterfly

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

the yearly variation of between-generation population change. We utilized weather data from the closest accessible NOAA weather station (43◦56′N/90◦49...patterns in the population dynamic, and tested for density-dependent growth and weather factors as potential explanatory factors of the yearly variation...followed a standard protocol including avoiding inclement weather con- ditions (Wilder 1999) and about 95% of the survey data were collected by a single

A stand-alone tree demography and landscape structure module for Earth system models: integration with global forest data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haverd, V.; Smith, B.; Nieradzik, L. P.; Briggs, P. R.

2014-02-01

Poorly constrained rates of biomass turnover are a key limitation of Earth system models (ESM). In light of this, we recently proposed a new approach encoded in a model called Populations-Order-Physiology (POP), for the simulation of woody ecosystem stand dynamics, demography and disturbance-mediated heterogeneity. POP is suitable for continental to global applications and designed for coupling to the terrestrial ecosystem component of any ESM. POP bridges the gap between first generation Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) with simple large-area parameterisations of woody biomass (typically used in current ESMs) and complex second generation DVMs, that explicitly simulate demographic processes and landscape heterogeneity of forests. The key simplification in the POP approach, compared with second-generation DVMs, is to compute physiological processes such as assimilation at grid-scale (with CABLE or a similar land surface model), but to partition the grid-scale biomass increment among age classes defined at sub grid-scale, each subject to its own dynamics. POP was successfully demonstrated along a savanna transect in northern Australia, replicating the effects of strong rainfall and fire disturbance gradients on observed stand productivity and structure. Here, we extend the application of POP to a range of forest types around the globe, employing paired observations of stem biomass and density from forest inventory data to calibrate model parameters governing stand demography and biomass evolution. The calibrated POP model is then coupled to the CABLE land surface model and the combined model (CABLE-POP) is evaluated against leaf-stem allometry observations from forest stands ranging in age from 3 to 200 yr. Results indicate that simulated biomass pools conform well with observed allometry. We conclude that POP represents a preferable alternative to large-area parameterisations of woody biomass turnover, typically used in current ESMs.

Evaluation of vibration limits and mitigation techniques for urban construction : [summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-10-01

Construction activities such as pile driving and : dynamic compaction of loose soils induce ground : and structure vibrations. Their effects may annoy : local populations, disturb sensitive equipment, or : reduce structures serviceability and dura...

A stochastic population model for Lepidium papilliferum (Brassicaceae), a rare desert ephemeral with a persistent seed bank

Treesearch

Susan E. Meyer; Dana Quinney; Jay Weaver

2006-01-01

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a valuable tool for rare plant conservation, but PVA for plants with persistent seed banks is difficult without reliable information on seed bank processes. We modeled the population dynamics of the Snake River Plains ephemeral Lepidium papilliferum using data from an 11-yr artificial seed bank experiment to estimate age-specific...

[[Findings of a report on the population structure of rural market towns

PubMed

1985-07-29

This report concerns a survey on the characteristics of the population of four villages in Shunji county, located near Beijing, China. The survey, which was carried out in 1984, covered 12,652 individuals. The results show that the population of adult age is increasing and that a general trend toward demographic aging can be identified. The sex ratio is particularly high in the working ages. Fertility is currently below replacement level.

Reintroducing Guanaco in the Upper Belt of Central Argentina: Using Population Viability Analysis to Evaluate Extinction Risk and Management Priorities

PubMed Central

Barri, Fernando Rafael

2016-01-01

Wildlife reintroduction is an increasingly used strategy to reverse anthropocene defaunation. For the purpose of ecosystem restoration, in 2007 the guanaco (Lama guanicoe) was reintroduced to the Quebrada del Condorito National Park, situated in the mountains of central Argentina. With the aim of developing management recommendations, the project included permanently monitoring the population to evaluate its dynamics and the ecological response of the individuals released into the area. Nine years later and after two releases of guanacos (113 individuals in 2007 without and 25 in 2011 with a pre-adaptation period), only 24 individuals, which conform three reproductive groups, and one group of solitary males were settled in the Park. Here I modeled a population viability analysis to evaluate extinction risk, using VORTEX software. Initial population structure, specified age distribution, mortality and reproductive rates, and mate monopolization recorded during field work were used in the model, whereas the remaining used demographic parameters, such as age of first offspring, maximum number of broods per year, mean foaling rate, and length of fecundity period, were taken from the literature. Each of the three different scenarios (without supplementation of individuals, and with a realistic and optimistic supplementation) and two possible catastrophic events (fires and food shortage) covering 100 years was repeated 1000 times. Even though the guanaco reintroduction project can be considered to have been partially successful since its start, the model predicts that the current reintroduced population could be extinct in the next few decades if no reinforcements occur, and that only a continuous supplementation can reach the probability that the population survives over the next 100 years. I conclude that, so far, the current population is at a high risk of extinction if further supplementation of individuals is discontinued. PMID:27741302

Reintroducing Guanaco in the Upper Belt of Central Argentina: Using Population Viability Analysis to Evaluate Extinction Risk and Management Priorities.

PubMed

Barri, Fernando Rafael

2016-01-01

Wildlife reintroduction is an increasingly used strategy to reverse anthropocene defaunation. For the purpose of ecosystem restoration, in 2007 the guanaco (Lama guanicoe) was reintroduced to the Quebrada del Condorito National Park, situated in the mountains of central Argentina. With the aim of developing management recommendations, the project included permanently monitoring the population to evaluate its dynamics and the ecological response of the individuals released into the area. Nine years later and after two releases of guanacos (113 individuals in 2007 without and 25 in 2011 with a pre-adaptation period), only 24 individuals, which conform three reproductive groups, and one group of solitary males were settled in the Park. Here I modeled a population viability analysis to evaluate extinction risk, using VORTEX software. Initial population structure, specified age distribution, mortality and reproductive rates, and mate monopolization recorded during field work were used in the model, whereas the remaining used demographic parameters, such as age of first offspring, maximum number of broods per year, mean foaling rate, and length of fecundity period, were taken from the literature. Each of the three different scenarios (without supplementation of individuals, and with a realistic and optimistic supplementation) and two possible catastrophic events (fires and food shortage) covering 100 years was repeated 1000 times. Even though the guanaco reintroduction project can be considered to have been partially successful since its start, the model predicts that the current reintroduced population could be extinct in the next few decades if no reinforcements occur, and that only a continuous supplementation can reach the probability that the population survives over the next 100 years. I conclude that, so far, the current population is at a high risk of extinction if further supplementation of individuals is discontinued.

Saguaro (Carnegiea gigantea) Mortality and Population Regeneration in the Cactus Forest of Saguaro National Park: Seventy-Five Years and Counting

PubMed Central

Orum, Thomas V.; Ferguson, Nancy; Mihail, Jeanne D.

2016-01-01

Annual census data spanning seventy-five years document mortality and regeneration in a population of saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea) in the Cactus Forest of the Rincon Mountain District of Saguaro National Park near Tucson, AZ. On 6 four-hectare plots, each saguaro was censused and a methodical search for new saguaros was conducted annually each year from 1942 through 2016, with the exception of 1955. Regeneration has been episodic with 828 plants established from 1959 through 1993 compared with 34 plants established between 1942 and 1958 and only three plants established after 1993. The years preceding 1959 and following 1993, include some of the driest decades in centuries in southern Arizona. While woodcutting and cattle grazing are believed to be among the causes of decades of failed regeneration prior to 1958, neither of these factors contributed to the failed regeneration following 1993. The height structure of the population from 1942 to 2016 shifted dramatically from a population dominated by large saguaros (> 5.4 m tall) in the first three decades of the study to a population dominated by small saguaros (< 1.8 m tall) in the most recent two decades. Mortality is shown to be strongly age dependent. In the year following the 2011 catastrophic freeze, 21 of 59 plants older than 80 years died compared with zero deaths in 270 plants between the ages of 29 and 80 years. Saguaros under 40 years old, growing under small shrubs or in the open, have a lower probability of survival than better protected saguaros. Long-term population monitoring is essential to understanding the complex impacts of human and environmental factors on the population dynamics of long-lived species. PMID:27505437

Genetic isolation of a now extinct population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus)

PubMed Central

Nichols, Courtney; Herman, Jerry; Gaggiotti, Oscar E; Dobney, Keith M; Parsons, Kim; Hoelzel, A. Rus

2007-01-01

A number of dolphin species, though highly mobile, show genetic structure among parapatric and sometimes sympatric populations. However, little is known about the temporal patterns of population structure for these species. Here, we apply Bayesian inference and data from ancient DNA to assess the structure and dynamics of bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) populations in the coastal waters of the UK. We show that regional population structure in UK waters is consistent with earlier studies suggesting local habitat dependence for this species in the Mediterranean Sea and North Atlantic. One genetically differentiated UK population went extinct at least 100 years ago and has not been replaced. The data indicate that this was a local extinction, and not a case of historical range shift or contraction. One possible interpretation is a declining metapopulation and conservation need for this species in the UK. PMID:17456457

Facial dynamics and emotional expressions in facial aging treatments.

PubMed

Michaud, Thierry; Gassia, Véronique; Belhaouari, Lakhdar

2015-03-01

Facial expressions convey emotions that form the foundation of interpersonal relationships, and many of these emotions promote and regulate our social linkages. Hence, the facial aging symptomatological analysis and the treatment plan must of necessity include knowledge of the facial dynamics and the emotional expressions of the face. This approach aims to more closely meet patients' expectations of natural-looking results, by correcting age-related negative expressions while observing the emotional language of the face. This article will successively describe patients' expectations, the role of facial expressions in relational dynamics, the relationship between facial structures and facial expressions, and the way facial aging mimics negative expressions. Eventually, therapeutic implications for facial aging treatment will be addressed. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Fine resolution mapping of population age-structures for health and development applications

PubMed Central

Alegana, V. A.; Atkinson, P. M.; Pezzulo, C.; Sorichetta, A.; Weiss, D.; Bird, T.; Erbach-Schoenberg, E.; Tatem, A. J.

2015-01-01

The age-group composition of populations varies considerably across the world, and obtaining accurate, spatially detailed estimates of numbers of children under 5 years is important in designing vaccination strategies, educational planning or maternal healthcare delivery. Traditionally, such estimates are derived from population censuses, but these can often be unreliable, outdated and of coarse resolution for resource-poor settings. Focusing on Nigeria, we use nationally representative household surveys and their cluster locations to predict the proportion of the under-five population in 1 × 1 km using a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model. Results showed that land cover, travel time to major settlements, night-time lights and vegetation index were good predictors and that accounting for fine-scale variation, rather than assuming a uniform proportion of under 5 year olds can result in significant differences in health metrics. The largest gaps in estimated bednet and vaccination coverage were in Kano, Katsina and Jigawa. Geolocated household surveys are a valuable resource for providing detailed, contemporary and regularly updated population age-structure data in the absence of recent census data. By combining these with covariate layers, age-structure maps of unprecedented detail can be produced to guide the targeting of interventions in resource-poor settings. PMID:25788540

Disease spread in age structured populations with maternal age effects.

PubMed

Clark, Jessica; Garbutt, Jennie S; McNally, Luke; Little, Tom J

2017-04-01

Fundamental ecological processes, such as extrinsic mortality, determine population age structure. This influences disease spread when individuals of different ages differ in susceptibility or when maternal age determines offspring susceptibility. We show that Daphnia magna offspring born to young mothers are more susceptible than those born to older mothers, and consider this alongside previous observations that susceptibility declines with age in this system. We used a susceptible-infected compartmental model to investigate how age-specific susceptibility and maternal age effects on offspring susceptibility interact with demographic factors affecting disease spread. Our results show a scenario where an increase in extrinsic mortality drives an increase in transmission potential. Thus, we identify a realistic context in which age effects and maternal effects produce conditions favouring disease transmission. © 2017 The Authors Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Oceanographic mechanisms and penguin population increases during the Little Ice Age in the southern Ross Sea, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Lianjiao; Sun, Liguang; Emslie, Steven D.; Xie, Zhouqing; Huang, Tao; Gao, Yuesong; Yang, Wenqing; Chu, Zhuding; Wang, Yuhong

2018-01-01

The Adélie penguin is a well-known indicator for climate and environmental changes. Exploring how large-scale climate variability affects penguin ecology in the past is essential for understanding the responses of Southern Ocean ecosystems to future global change. Using ornithogenic sediments at Cape Bird, Ross Island, Antarctica, we inferred relative population changes of Adélie penguins in the southern Ross Sea over the past 500 yr, and observed an increase in penguin populations during the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1500-1850 AD). We used cadmium content in ancient penguin guano as a proxy of ocean upwelling and identified a close linkage between penguin dynamics and atmospheric circulation and oceanic conditions. During the cold period of ∼1600-1825 AD, a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) led to stronger winds, intensified ocean upwelling, enlarged Ross Sea and McMurdo Sound polynyas, and thus higher food abundance and penguin populations. We propose a mechanism linking Antarctic marine ecology and atmospheric/oceanic dynamics which can help explain and predict responses of Antarctic high latitudes ecosystems to climate change.

And So It Grows: Using a Computer-Based Simulation of a Population Growth Model to Integrate Biology & Mathematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Street, Garrett M.; Laubach, Timothy A.

2013-01-01

We provide a 5E structured-inquiry lesson so that students can learn more of the mathematics behind the logistic model of population biology. By using models and mathematics, students understand how population dynamics can be influenced by relatively simple changes in the environment.

Genome-wide analysis of allele frequency change in sunflower crop-wild hybrid populations evolving under natural conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Hybridization is known to occur between cultivated and wild populations of numerous plant species. This represents a major mechanism by which a wild population’s genetic structure and evolutionary dynamics could be altered. Studying crop-derived alleles in wild populations is also relevant to assess...

Temperature-dependent body size effects determine population responses to climate warming.

PubMed

Lindmark, Max; Huss, Magnus; Ohlberger, Jan; Gårdmark, Anna

2018-02-01

Current understanding of animal population responses to rising temperatures is based on the assumption that biological rates such as metabolism, which governs fundamental ecological processes, scale independently with body size and temperature, despite empirical evidence for interactive effects. Here, we investigate the consequences of interactive temperature- and size scaling of vital rates for the dynamics of populations experiencing warming using a stage-structured consumer-resource model. We show that interactive scaling alters population and stage-specific responses to rising temperatures, such that warming can induce shifts in population regulation and stage-structure, influence community structure and govern population responses to mortality. Analysing experimental data for 20 fish species, we found size-temperature interactions in intraspecific scaling of metabolic rate to be common. Given the evidence for size-temperature interactions and the ubiquity of size structure in animal populations, we argue that accounting for size-specific temperature effects is pivotal for understanding how warming affects animal populations and communities. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.