Evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Aming; Broom, Mark; Du, Jinming; Wang, Long

2016-02-01

The evolution of populations is influenced by many factors, and the simple classical models have been developed in a number of important ways. Both population structure and multiplayer interactions have been shown to significantly affect the evolution of important properties, such as the level of cooperation or of aggressive behavior. Here we combine these two key factors and develop the evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations represented by regular graphs. The traditional linear and threshold public goods games are adopted as models to address the dynamics. We show that for linear group interactions, population structure can favor the evolution of cooperation compared to the well-mixed case, and we see that the more neighbors there are, the harder it is for cooperators to persist in structured populations. We further show that threshold group interactions could lead to the emergence of cooperation even in well-mixed populations. Here population structure sometimes inhibits cooperation for the threshold public goods game, where depending on the benefit to cost ratio, the outcomes are bistability or a monomorphic population of defectors or cooperators. Our results suggest, counterintuitively, that structured populations are not always beneficial for the evolution of cooperation for nonlinear group interactions.

Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures.

PubMed

Buffoni, Giuseppe; Pasquali, Sara

2007-04-01

A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.

Demographic analysis from summaries of an age-structured population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hatfield, Jeff S.

2003-01-01

Demographic analyses of age-structured populations typically rely on life history data for individuals, or when individual animals are not identified, on information about the numbers of individuals in each age class through time. While it is usually difficult to determine the age class of a randomly encountered individual, it is often the case that the individual can be readily and reliably assigned to one of a set of age classes. For example, it is often possible to distinguish first-year from older birds. In such cases, the population age structure can be regarded as a latent variable governed by a process prior, and the data as summaries of this latent structure. In this article, we consider the problem of uncovering the latent structure and estimating process parameters from summaries of age class information. We present a demographic analysis for the critically endangered migratory population of whooping cranes (Grus americana), based only on counts of first-year birds and of older birds. We estimate age and year-specific survival rates. We address the controversial issue of whether management action on the breeding grounds has influenced recruitment, relating recruitment rates to the number of seventh-year and older birds, and examining the pattern of variation through time in this rate.

Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

Anomalous Growth of Aging Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grebenkov, Denis S.

2016-04-01

We consider a discrete-time population dynamics with age-dependent structure. At every time step, one of the alive individuals from the population is chosen randomly and removed with probability q_k depending on its age, whereas a new individual of age 1 is born with probability r. The model can also describe a single queue in which the service order is random while the service efficiency depends on a customer's "age" in the queue. We propose a mean field approximation to investigate the long-time asymptotic behavior of the mean population size. The age dependence is shown to lead to anomalous power-law growth of the population at the critical regime. The scaling exponent is determined by the asymptotic behavior of the probabilities q_k at large k. The mean field approximation is validated by Monte Carlo simulations.

Age structure changes and extraordinary lifespan in wild medfly populations.

PubMed

Carey, James R; Papadopoulos, Nikos T; Müller, Hans-Georg; Katsoyannos, Byron I; Kouloussis, Nikos A; Wang, Jane-Ling; Wachter, Kenneth; Yu, Wei; Liedo, Pablo

2008-06-01

The main purpose of this study was to test the hypotheses that major changes in age structure occur in wild populations of the Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly) and that a substantial fraction of individuals survive to middle age and beyond (> 3-4 weeks). We thus brought reference life tables and deconvolution models to bear on medfly mortality data gathered from a 3-year study of field-captured individuals that were monitored in the laboratory. The average time-to-death of captured females differed between sampling dates by 23.9, 22.7, and 37.0 days in the 2003, 2004, and 2005 field seasons, respectively. These shifts in average times-to-death provided evidence of changes in population age structure. Estimates indicated that middle-aged medflies (> 30 days) were common in the population. A surprise in the study was the extraordinary longevity observed in field-captured medflies. For example, 19 captured females but no reference females survived in the laboratory for 140 days or more, and 6 captured but no reference males survived in the laboratory for 170 days or more. This paper advances the study of aging in the wild by introducing a new method for estimating age structure in insect populations, demonstrating that major changes in age structure occur in field populations of insects, showing that middle-aged individuals are common in the wild, and revealing the extraordinary lifespans of wild-caught individuals due to their early life experience in the field.

Consumptive and nonconsumptive effects of cannibalism in fluctuating age-structured populations.

PubMed

Wissinger, Scott A; Whiteman, Howard H; Denoël, Mathieu; Mumford, Miranda L; Aubee, Catherine B

2010-02-01

Theory and empirical studies suggest that cannibalism in age-structured populations can regulate recruitment depending on the intensity of intraspecific competition between cannibals and victims and the nature of the cannibalism window, i.e., which size classes interact as cannibals and victims. Here we report on a series of experiments that quantify that window for age-structured populations of salamander larvae and paedomorphic adults. We determined body size limits on cannibalism in microcosms and then the consumptive and nonconsumptive (injuries, foraging and activity, diet, growth) effects on victims in mesocosms with seminatural levels of habitat complexity and alternative prey. We found that cannibalism by the largest size classes (paedomorphs and > or = age 3+ yr larvae) occurs mainly on young-of-the-year (YOY) victims. Surviving YOY and other small larvae had increased injuries, reduced activity levels, and reduced growth rates in the presence of cannibals. Data on YOY survival in an experiment in which we manipulated the density of paedomorphs combined with historical data on the number of cannibals in natural populations indicate that dominant cohorts of paedomorphs can cause observed recruitment failures. Dietary data indicate that ontogenetic shifts in diet should preclude strong intraspecific competition between YOY and cannibals in this species. Thus our results are consistent with previous empirical and theoretical work that suggests that recruitment regulation by cannibalism is most likely when YOY are vulnerable to cannibalism but have low dietary overlap with cannibals. Understanding the role of cannibalism in regulating recruitment in salamander populations is timely, given the widespread occurrences of amphibian decline. Previous studies have focused on extrinsic (including anthropogenic) factors that affect amphibian population dynamics, whereas the data presented here combined with long-term field observations suggest the potential for

Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

Population inertia and its sensitivity to changes in vital rates and population structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koons, David N.; Holmes, Randall R.; Grand, James B.

2007-01-01

Because the (st)age structure of a population may rarely be stable, studies of transient population dynamics and population momentum are becoming ever more popular. Yet, studies of "population momentum" are restricted in the sense that they describe the inertia of population size resulting from a demographic transition to the stationary population growth rate. Although rarely mentioned, inertia in population size is a general phenomenon and can be produced by any demographic transition or perturbation. Because population size is of central importance in demography, conservation, and management, formulas relating the sensitivity of population inertia to changes in underlying vital rates and population structure could provide much-needed insight into the dynamics of populations with unstable (st)age structure. Here, we derive such formulas, which are readily computable, and provide examples of their potential use in studies of life history and applied arenas of population study. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may

A kinetic theory for age-structured stochastic birth-death processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, Tom; Greenman, Chris

Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but they are structurally unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., carrying capacity) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a BBGKY-like hierarchy. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution. NSF.

Kinetic theory of age-structured stochastic birth-death processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenman, Chris D.; Chou, Tom

2016-01-01

Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but are unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Stochastic theories that treat semi-Markov age-dependent processes using, e.g., the Bellman-Harris equation do not resolve a population's age structure and are unable to quantify population-size dependencies. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., mathematical models that include carrying capacity such as the logistic equation) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new, fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a Bogoliubov--Born--Green--Kirkwood--Yvon-like hierarchy. Explicit solutions are derived in three limits: no birth, no death, and steady state. These are then compared with their corresponding mean-field results. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution.

Evolution of stochastic demography with life history tradeoffs in density-dependent age-structured populations.

PubMed

Lande, Russell; Engen, Steinar; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-10-31

We analyze the stochastic demography and evolution of a density-dependent age- (or stage-) structured population in a fluctuating environment. A positive linear combination of age classes (e.g., weighted by body mass) is assumed to act as the single variable of population size, [Formula: see text], exerting density dependence on age-specific vital rates through an increasing function of population size. The environment fluctuates in a stationary distribution with no autocorrelation. We show by analysis and simulation of age structure, under assumptions often met by vertebrate populations, that the stochastic dynamics of population size can be accurately approximated by a univariate model governed by three key demographic parameters: the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity in the average environment, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], and the environmental variance in population growth rate, [Formula: see text] Allowing these parameters to be genetically variable and to evolve, but assuming that a fourth parameter, [Formula: see text], measuring the nonlinearity of density dependence, remains constant, the expected evolution maximizes [Formula: see text] This shows that the magnitude of environmental stochasticity governs the classical trade-off between selection for higher [Formula: see text] versus higher [Formula: see text] However, selection also acts to decrease [Formula: see text], so the simple life-history trade-off between [Formula: see text]- and [Formula: see text]-selection may be obscured by additional trade-offs between them and [Formula: see text] Under the classical logistic model of population growth with linear density dependence ([Formula: see text]), life-history evolution in a fluctuating environment tends to maximize the average population size. Published under the PNAS license.

Population age structure and asset returns: an empirical investigation.

PubMed

Poterba, J M

1998-10-01

"This paper investigates the association between population age structure, particularly the share of the population in the 'prime saving years' 45-60, and the returns on stocks and bonds. The paper is motivated by the claim that the aging of the 'Baby Boom' cohort in the United States is a key factor in explaining the recent rise in asset values. It also addresses the associated claim that asset prices will decline when this large cohort reaches retirement age and begins to reduce its asset holdings. This paper begins by considering household age-asset accumulation profiles. Data from the Survey of Consumer Finances suggest that while cross-sectional age-wealth profiles peak for households in their early 60s, cohort data on the asset ownership of the same households show a much less pronounced peak.... The paper then considers the historical relationship between demographic structure and real returns on Treasury bills, long-term government bonds, and corporate stock. The results do not suggest any robust relationship between demographic structure and asset returns.... The paper concludes by discussing factors such as international capital flows and forward-looking behavior on the part of market participants that could weaken the relationship between age structure and asset returns in a single nation." excerpt

Individual movement behavior, matrix heterogeneity, and the dynamics of spatially structured populations.

PubMed

Revilla, Eloy; Wiegand, Thorsten

2008-12-09

The dynamics of spatially structured populations is characterized by within- and between-patch processes. The available theory describes the latter with simple distance-dependent functions that depend on landscape properties such as interpatch distance or patch size. Despite its potential role, we lack a good mechanistic understanding of how the movement of individuals between patches affects the dynamics of these populations. We used the theoretical framework provided by movement ecology to make a direct representation of the processes determining how individuals connect local populations in a spatially structured population of Iberian lynx. Interpatch processes depended on the heterogeneity of the matrix where patches are embedded and the parameters defining individual movement behavior. They were also very sensitive to the dynamic demographic variables limiting the time moving, the within-patch dynamics of available settlement sites (both spatiotemporally heterogeneous) and the response of individuals to the perceived risk while moving. These context-dependent dynamic factors are an inherent part of the movement process, producing connectivities and dispersal kernels whose variability is affected by other demographic processes. Mechanistic representations of interpatch movements, such as the one provided by the movement-ecology framework, permit the dynamic interaction of birth-death processes and individual movement behavior, thus improving our understanding of stochastic spatially structured populations.

Structural drift: the population dynamics of sequential learning.

PubMed

Crutchfield, James P; Whalen, Sean

2012-01-01

We introduce a theory of sequential causal inference in which learners in a chain estimate a structural model from their upstream "teacher" and then pass samples from the model to their downstream "student". It extends the population dynamics of genetic drift, recasting Kimura's selectively neutral theory as a special case of a generalized drift process using structured populations with memory. We examine the diffusion and fixation properties of several drift processes and propose applications to learning, inference, and evolution. We also demonstrate how the organization of drift process space controls fidelity, facilitates innovations, and leads to information loss in sequential learning with and without memory.

Disease spread in age structured populations with maternal age effects.

PubMed

Clark, Jessica; Garbutt, Jennie S; McNally, Luke; Little, Tom J

2017-04-01

Fundamental ecological processes, such as extrinsic mortality, determine population age structure. This influences disease spread when individuals of different ages differ in susceptibility or when maternal age determines offspring susceptibility. We show that Daphnia magna offspring born to young mothers are more susceptible than those born to older mothers, and consider this alongside previous observations that susceptibility declines with age in this system. We used a susceptible-infected compartmental model to investigate how age-specific susceptibility and maternal age effects on offspring susceptibility interact with demographic factors affecting disease spread. Our results show a scenario where an increase in extrinsic mortality drives an increase in transmission potential. Thus, we identify a realistic context in which age effects and maternal effects produce conditions favouring disease transmission. © 2017 The Authors Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk.

PubMed

Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M; Nelson, William A; Paaijmans, Krijn P; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B; Bjørnstad, Ottar N

2017-03-01

Temperature is a key environmental driver of Anopheles mosquito population dynamics; understanding its central role is important for these malaria vectors. Mosquito population responses to temperature fluctuations, though important across the life history, are poorly understood at a population level. We used stage-structured, temperature-dependent delay-differential equations to conduct a detailed exploration of the impacts of diurnal and annual temperature fluctuations on mosquito population dynamics. The model allows exploration of temperature-driven temporal changes in adult age structure, giving insights into the population's capacity to vector malaria parasites. Because of temperature-dependent shifts in age structure, the abundance of potentially infectious mosquitoes varies temporally, and does not necessarily mirror the dynamics of the total adult population. In addition to conducting the first comprehensive theoretical exploration of fluctuating temperatures on mosquito population dynamics, we analysed observed temperatures at four locations in Africa covering a range of environmental conditions. We found both temperature and precipitation are needed to explain the observed malaria season in these locations, enhancing our understanding of the drivers of malaria seasonality and how temporal disease risk may shift in response to temperature changes. This approach, tracking both mosquito abundance and age structure, may be a powerful tool for understanding current and future malaria risk.

A fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model for population viability analysis of fish: Lower Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Albers, Janice; Green, Nicholas; Moran, Edward H.

2017-01-01

We develop a fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model suitable for population viability analysis (PVA) of fish and demonstrate its use with the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) of the Lower Missouri River as an example. The model incorporates three levels of variance: parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level, temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations over time) applied at the time-step level, and implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) applied within the time-step level. We found that population dynamics were most sensitive to survival rates, particularly age-2+ survival, and to fecundity-at-length. The inclusion of variance (unpartitioned or partitioned), stocking, or both generally decreased the influence of individual parameters on population growth rate. The partitioning of variance into parameter and temporal components had a strong influence on the importance of individual parameters, uncertainty of model predictions, and quasiextinction risk (i.e., pallid sturgeon population size falling below 50 age-1+ individuals). Our findings show that appropriately applying variance in PVA is important when evaluating the relative importance of parameters, and reinforce the need for better and more precise estimates of crucial life-history parameters for pallid sturgeon.

Age, growth and population structure of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) in northeast Florida using a length-based, age-structured population model.

PubMed

Johnson, Eric G; Swenarton, Mary Katherine

2016-01-01

The effective management of invasive species requires detailed understanding of the invader's life history. This information is essential for modeling population growth and predicting rates of expansion, quantifying ecological impacts and assessing the efficacy of removal and control strategies. Indo-Pacific lionfish ( Pterois volitans/miles ) have rapidly invaded the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea with documented negative impacts on native ecosystems. To better understand the life history of this species, we developed and validated a length-based, age-structured model to investigate age, growth and population structure in northeast Florida. The main findings of this study were: (1) lionfish exhibited rapid growth with seasonal variation in growth rates; (2) distinct cohorts were clearly identifiable in the length-frequency data, suggesting that lionfish are recruiting during a relatively short period in summer; and (3) the majority of lionfish were less than two years old with no lionfish older than three years of age, which may be the result of culling efforts as well as ontogenetic habitat shifts to deeper water.

Age, growth and population structure of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) in northeast Florida using a length-based, age-structured population model

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The effective management of invasive species requires detailed understanding of the invader’s life history. This information is essential for modeling population growth and predicting rates of expansion, quantifying ecological impacts and assessing the efficacy of removal and control strategies. Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) have rapidly invaded the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea with documented negative impacts on native ecosystems. To better understand the life history of this species, we developed and validated a length-based, age-structured model to investigate age, growth and population structure in northeast Florida. The main findings of this study were: (1) lionfish exhibited rapid growth with seasonal variation in growth rates; (2) distinct cohorts were clearly identifiable in the length-frequency data, suggesting that lionfish are recruiting during a relatively short period in summer; and (3) the majority of lionfish were less than two years old with no lionfish older than three years of age, which may be the result of culling efforts as well as ontogenetic habitat shifts to deeper water. PMID:27920953

Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2014-11-01

Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean

The σ law of evolutionary dynamics in community-structured population.

PubMed

Tang, Changbing; Li, Xiang; Cao, Lang; Zhan, Jingyuan

2012-08-07

Evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations provide a new framework to understand the selection of traits with frequency-dependent fitness. Recently, a simple but fundamental law of evolutionary dynamics, which we call σ law, describes how to determine the selection between two competing strategies: in most evolutionary processes with two strategies, A and B, strategy A is favored over B in weak selection if and only if σR+S>T+σP. This relationship holds for a wide variety of structured populations with mutation rate and weak selection under certain assumptions. In this paper, we propose a model of games based on a community-structured population and revisit this law under the Moran process. By calculating the average payoffs of A and B individuals with the method of effective sojourn time, we find that σ features not only the structured population characteristics, but also the reaction rate between individuals. That is to say, an interaction between two individuals are not uniform, and we can take σ as a reaction rate between any two individuals with the same strategy. We verify this viewpoint by the modified replicator equation with non-uniform interaction rates in a simplified version of the prisoner's dilemma game (PDG). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Policies Influencing the Demography of Age-Structured Populations: Lessons from Academies of Sciences

PubMed Central

Riosmena, Fernando; Winkler-Dworak, Maria; Prskawetz, Alexia; Feichtinger, Gustav

2013-01-01

In this paper, we assess the role of policies aimed at regulating the number and age structure of elections on the size and age structure of five European Academies of Sciences. We show the recent pace of ageing and the degree of variation in policies across them and discuss the implications of different policies on the size and age structure of academies. We also illustrate the potential effect of different election regimes (fixed vs. linked) and age structures of election (younger vs. older) by contrasting the steady-state dynamics of different projections of Full Members in each academy into 2070 and measuring the size and age-compositional effect of changing a given policy relative to a status quo policy scenario. Our findings suggest that academies with linked intake (i.e., where the size of the academy below a certain age is fixed and the number of elections is set to the number of members becoming that age) may be a more efficient approach to curb growth without suffering any ageing trade-offs relative to the faster growth of academies electing a fixed number of members per year. We further discuss the implications of our results in the context of stable populations open to migration. PMID:23843677

An agent-based computational model for tuberculosis spreading on age-structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graciani Rodrigues, C. C.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

2015-06-01

In this work we present an agent-based computational model to study the spreading of the tuberculosis (TB) disease on age-structured populations. The model proposed is a merge of two previous models: an agent-based computational model for the spreading of tuberculosis and a bit-string model for biological aging. The combination of TB with the population aging, reproduces the coexistence of health states, as seen in real populations. In addition, the universal exponential behavior of mortalities curves is still preserved. Finally, the population distribution as function of age shows the prevalence of TB mostly in elders, for high efficacy treatments.

Linking extinction-colonization dynamics to genetic structure in a salamander metapopulation.

PubMed

Cosentino, Bradley J; Phillips, Christopher A; Schooley, Robert L; Lowe, Winsor H; Douglas, Marlis R

2012-04-22

Theory predicts that founder effects have a primary role in determining metapopulation genetic structure. However, ecological factors that affect extinction-colonization dynamics may also create spatial variation in the strength of genetic drift and migration. We tested the hypothesis that ecological factors underlying extinction-colonization dynamics influenced the genetic structure of a tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum) metapopulation. We used empirical data on metapopulation dynamics to make a priori predictions about the effects of population age and ecological factors on genetic diversity and divergence among 41 populations. Metapopulation dynamics of A. tigrinum depended on wetland area, connectivity and presence of predatory fish. We found that newly colonized populations were more genetically differentiated than established populations, suggesting that founder effects influenced genetic structure. However, ecological drivers of metapopulation dynamics were more important than age in predicting genetic structure. Consistent with demographic predictions from metapopulation theory, genetic diversity and divergence depended on wetland area and connectivity. Divergence was greatest in small, isolated wetlands where genetic diversity was low. Our results show that ecological factors underlying metapopulation dynamics can be key determinants of spatial genetic structure, and that habitat area and isolation may mediate the contributions of drift and migration to divergence and evolution in local populations.

Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.

1979-01-01

The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

Evolutionary dynamics for persistent cooperation in structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yan; Liu, Xinsheng; Claussen, Jens Christian; Guo, Wanlin

2015-06-01

The emergence and maintenance of cooperative behavior is a fascinating topic in evolutionary biology and social science. The public goods game (PGG) is a paradigm for exploring cooperative behavior. In PGG, the total resulting payoff is divided equally among all participants. This feature still leads to the dominance of defection without substantially magnifying the public good by a multiplying factor. Much effort has been made to explain the evolution of cooperative strategies, including a recent model in which only a portion of the total benefit is shared by all the players through introducing a new strategy named persistent cooperation. A persistent cooperator is a contributor who is willing to pay a second cost to retrieve the remaining portion of the payoff contributed by themselves. In a previous study, this model was analyzed in the framework of well-mixed populations. This paper focuses on discussing the persistent cooperation in lattice-structured populations. The evolutionary dynamics of the structured populations consisting of three types of competing players (pure cooperators, defectors, and persistent cooperators) are revealed by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. In particular, the approximate expressions of fixation probabilities for strategies are derived on one-dimensional lattices. The phase diagrams of stationary states, and the evolution of frequencies and spatial patterns for strategies are illustrated on both one-dimensional and square lattices by simulations. Our results are consistent with the general observation that, at least in most situations, a structured population facilitates the evolution of cooperation. Specifically, here we find that the existence of persistent cooperators greatly suppresses the spreading of defectors under more relaxed conditions in structured populations compared to that obtained in well-mixed populations.

Paths for Future Population Aging.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grigsby, Jill S.

Population aging refers to an entire age structure becoming older. The age structure of a population is the result of three basic processes: fertility, mortality, and migration. Age structures reflect both past effects and current patterns of these processes. At the town, city, or regional level, migration becomes an important factor in raising…

The leverage of demographic dynamics on carbon dioxide emissions: does age structure matter?

PubMed

Zagheni, Emilio

2011-02-01

This article provides a methodological contribution to the study of the effect of changes in population age structure on carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions. First, I propose a generalization of the IPAT equation to a multisector economy with an age-structured population and discuss the insights that can be obtained in the context of stable population theory. Second, I suggest a statistical model of household consumption as a function of household size and age structure to quantitatively evaluate the extent of economies of scale in consumption of energy-intensive goods, and to estimate age-specific profiles of consumption of energy-intensive goods and of CO(2) emissions. Third, I offer an illustration of the methodologies using data for the United States. The analysis shows that per-capita CO(2) emissions increase with age until the individual is in his or her 60s, and then emissions tend to decrease. Holding everything else constant, the expected change in U.S. population age distribution during the next four decades is likely to have a small, but noticeable, positive impact on CO(2) emissions.

Evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on structured populations: a review

PubMed Central

Perc, Matjaž; Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús; Szolnoki, Attila; Floría, Luis M.; Moreno, Yamir

2013-01-01

Interactions among living organisms, from bacteria colonies to human societies, are inherently more complex than interactions among particles and non-living matter. Group interactions are a particularly important and widespread class, representative of which is the public goods game. In addition, methods of statistical physics have proved valuable for studying pattern formation, equilibrium selection and self-organization in evolutionary games. Here, we review recent advances in the study of evolutionary dynamics of group interactions on top of structured populations, including lattices, complex networks and coevolutionary models. We also compare these results with those obtained on well-mixed populations. The review particularly highlights that the study of the dynamics of group interactions, like several other important equilibrium and non-equilibrium dynamical processes in biological, economical and social sciences, benefits from the synergy between statistical physics, network science and evolutionary game theory. PMID:23303223

[Analysis and design structure of an aging society].

PubMed

Fujimasa, Iwao

2012-01-01

On observing present Japanese society, we can find deep gaps between the present system and its probable future. One of the gaps may be due to the misconception that future societal make up is not definite. The aim of the current study was to investigate a future societal structure and to develop methods of adding a timed dimension policy to the societal structure. This is named "A theory of structuralism economics". We developed 3 societal structure projection engines and applied a system of dynamics language to estimate the future total population of Japan. The Japan total population reached a maximum in 2005, and thereafter depopulation begun. The populations in the younger working age group (from 25 to 54 years old) and those in the elderly working age group (from 55 to 84 years old) became almost equal in 2010. As economic growth rate depends upon an increase in the working population, the increase in national income rate of Japan approached over 10% per year between 1950 to 1970. The increased working age population of the same period exceeded 2.5% annually. However, after 2005 depopulation began in Japan. In future, national income will decrease proportional to the working age population, but personal national income will hold almost unchanged. We propose a new strategy for future society structure. The working age should be extended by 10 years. Labor power will come to exceed 60% of the population and will thereafter become stable.

[Сhaotic dynamics of cardio-intervals in three age groups of indigenous and non-indigenous population of Ugra].

PubMed

Eskov, V M; Khadartsev, A A; Eskov, V V; Vokhmina, J V

2016-01-01

The problem of life expectancy of indigenous and non-indigenous population of northern territories of the Russian Federation is considered in terms of economic growth and industrial development of the northern territories. The importance of prolonging the period of active working age of non-indigenous population of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Ugra and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug is increasing. Four directions for possible prolongation of the active life of non-indigenous population were presented. The problem of comparative dynamics of age-related changes of cardiovascular system on three specific age groups of female indigenous and non-indigenous population is being considered. A decrease in volume of quasi-attractors in the phase space of states is equivalent to strengthening of physical activity, which is typical of normal aging. It is proposed to use the mathematical pattern to reduce these volumes in assessing the dynamics of human aging in the North.

Mixing times towards demographic equilibrium in insect populations with temperature variable age structures.

PubMed

Damos, Petros

2015-08-01

In this study, we use entropy related mixing rate modules to measure the effects of temperature on insect population stability and demographic breakdown. The uncertainty in the age of the mother of a randomly chosen newborn, and how it is moved after a finite act of time steps, is modeled using a stochastic transformation of the Leslie matrix. Age classes are represented as a cycle graph and its transitions towards the stable age distribution are brought forth as an exact Markov chain. The dynamics of divergence, from a non equilibrium state towards equilibrium, are evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy. Moreover, Kullback-Leibler distance is applied as information-theoretic measure to estimate exact mixing times of age transitions probabilities towards equilibrium. Using empirically data, we show that on the initial conditions and simulated projection's trough time, that population entropy can effectively be applied to detect demographic variability towards equilibrium under different temperature conditions. Changes in entropy are correlated with the fluctuations of the insect population decay rates (i.e. demographic stability towards equilibrium). Moreover, shorter mixing times are directly linked to lower entropy rates and vice versa. This may be linked to the properties of the insect model system, which in contrast to warm blooded animals has the ability to greatly change its metabolic and demographic rates. Moreover, population entropy and the related distance measures that are applied, provide a means to measure these rates. The current results and model projections provide clear biological evidence why dynamic population entropy may be useful to measure population stability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Population dynamics and armed violence in Colombia, 1985-2010].

PubMed

Salaya, Hernán Eduardo; Rodríguez, Jesús

2014-09-01

Describe changes in the population structure of Colombia's municipalities in relation to internal displacement in response to armed violence. A descriptive ecological study was carried out. Secondary sources were consulted, taken from the Consolidated Registry of Displaced Population and from the National Administrative Department of Statistics, to calculate expulsion and reception rates for population displaced by violence from 2002 to 2010. Based on these rates, four groups were created of municipalities in the extreme quartile for each rate during the entire period, which were classified as high expulsion, low expulsion, high reception, and low reception. Subsequently, population pyramids and structure indicators were constructed for each group of municipalities for two comparative reference years (1985 and 2010). Municipalities with high expulsion or reception rates experienced a slower epidemiological transition, with lower mean ages and aging indices. The high expulsion group had the least regression, based on the Sundbärg index. In the high reception group, the masculinity ratio decreased the most, especially among the economically active population, and it had the highest population growth. Population dynamics in Colombia have been affected by armed violence and changes in these dynamics are not uniform across the country, leading to important social, economic, and cultural consequences. This study is useful for decision-making and public policy making.

Age-structured mark-recapture analysis: A virtual-population-analysis-based model for analyzing age-structured capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Martell, S.J.D.

2006-01-01

We present a new model to estimate capture probabilities, survival, abundance, and recruitment using traditional Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methods within a standard fisheries virtual population analysis framework. This approach compares the numbers of marked and unmarked fish at age captured in each year of sampling with predictions based on estimated vulnerabilities and abundance in a likelihood function. Recruitment to the earliest age at which fish can be tagged is estimated by using a virtual population analysis method to back-calculate the expected numbers of unmarked fish at risk of capture. By using information from both marked and unmarked animals in a standard fisheries age structure framework, this approach is well suited to the sparse data situations common in long-term capture-recapture programs with variable sampling effort. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

Effects of aging on sleep structure throughout adulthood: a population-based study.

PubMed

Moraes, Walter; Piovezan, Ronaldo; Poyares, Dalva; Bittencourt, Lia Rita; Santos-Silva, Rogerio; Tufik, Sergio

2014-04-01

Although many studies have shown the evolution of sleep parameters across the lifespan, not many have included a representative sample of the general population. The objective of this study was to describe age-related changes in sleep structure, sleep respiratory parameters and periodic limb movements of the adult population of São Paulo. We selected a representative sample of the city of São Paulo, Brazil that included both genders and an age range of 20-80 years. Pregnant and lactating women, people with physical or mental impairments that prevent self-care and people who work every night were not included. This sample included 1024 individuals who were submitted to polysomnography and structured interviews. We subdivided our sample into five-year age groups. One-way analysis of variance was used to compare age groups. Pearson product-moment was used to evaluate correlation between age and sleep parameters. Total sleep time, sleep efficiency, percentage of rapid eye movement (REM) sleep and slow wave sleep showed a significant age-related decrease (P<0.05). WASO (night-time spent awake after sleep onset), arousal index, sleep latency, REM sleep latency, and the percentage of stages 1 and 2 showed a significant increase (P<0.05). Furthermore, apnea-hypopnea index increased and oxygen saturation decreased with age. The reduction in the percentage of REM sleep significantly correlated with age in women, whereas the reduction in the percentage of slow wave sleep correlated with age in men. The periodic limb movement (PLM) index increased with age in men and women. Sleep structure and duration underwent significant alterations throughout the aging process in the general population. There was an important correlation between age, sleep respiratory parameters and PLM index. In addition, men and women showed similar trends but with different effect sizes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

PubMed

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

PubMed Central

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

The effects of temperature and diet on age grading and population age structure determination in Drosophila.

PubMed

Aw, Wen C; Ballard, J William O

2013-10-01

The age structure of natural population is of interest in physiological, life history and ecological studies but it is often difficult to determine. One methodological problem is that samples may need to be invasively sampled preventing subsequent taxonomic curation. A second problem is that it can be very expensive to accurately determine the age structure of given population because large sample sizes are often necessary. In this study, we test the effects of temperature (17 °C, 23 °C and 26 °C) and diet (standard cornmeal and low calorie diet) on the accuracy of the non-invasive, inexpensive and high throughput near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) technique to determine the age of Drosophila flies. Composite and simplified calibration models were developed for each sex. Independent sets for each temperature and diet treatments with flies not involved in calibration model were then used to validate the accuracy of the calibration models. The composite NIRS calibration model was generated by including flies reared under all temperatures and diets. This approach permits rapid age measurement and age structure determination in large population of flies as less than or equal to 9 days, or more than 9 days old with 85-97% and 64-99% accuracy, respectively. The simplified calibration models were generated by including flies reared at 23 °C on standard diet. Low accuracy rates were observed when simplified calibration models were used to identify (a) Drosophila reared at 17 °C and 26 °C and (b) 23 °C with low calorie diet. These results strongly suggest that appropriate calibration models need to be developed in the laboratory before this technique can be reliably used in field. These calibration models should include the major environmental variables that change across space and time in the particular natural population to be studied. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling and Analysis of a Nonlinear Age-Structured Model for Tumor Cell Populations with Quiescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zijian; Chen, Jing; Pang, Jianhua; Bi, Ping; Ruan, Shigui

2018-05-01

We present a nonlinear first-order hyperbolic partial differential equation model to describe age-structured tumor cell populations with proliferating and quiescent phases at the avascular stage in vitro. The division rate of the proliferating cells is assumed to be nonlinear due to the limitation of the nutrient and space. The model includes a proportion of newborn cells that enter directly the quiescent phase with age zero. This proportion can reflect the effect of treatment by drugs such as erlotinib. The existence and uniqueness of solutions are established. The local and global stabilities of the trivial steady state are investigated. The existence and local stability of the positive steady state are also analyzed. Numerical simulations are performed to verify the results and to examine the impacts of parameters on the nonlinear dynamics of the model.

Regional Population Dynamics

Treesearch

Andrew Birt

2011-01-01

The population dynamics of the southern pine beetle (SPB) exhibit characteristic fluctuations between relatively long endemic and shorter outbreak periods. Populations exhibit complex and hierarchical spatial structure with beetles and larvae aggregating within individual trees, infestations with multiple infested trees, and regional outbreaks that comprise a large...

On the probabilistic structure of water age: Probabilistic Water Age

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porporato, Amilcare; Calabrese, Salvatore

We report the age distribution of water in hydrologic systems has received renewed interest recently, especially in relation to watershed response to rainfall inputs. The purpose of this contribution is first to draw attention to existing theories of age distributions in population dynamics, fluid mechanics and stochastic groundwater, and in particular to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation and its generalizations and solutions. A second and more important goal is to clarify that, when hydrologic fluxes are modeled by means of time-varying stochastic processes, the age distributions must themselves be treated as random functions. Once their probabilistic structure is obtained, it canmore » be used to characterize the variability of age distributions in real systems and thus help quantify the inherent uncertainty in the field determination of water age. Finally, we illustrate these concepts with reference to a stochastic storage model, which has been used as a minimalist model of soil moisture and streamflow dynamics.« less

On the probabilistic structure of water age: Probabilistic Water Age

DOE PAGES

Porporato, Amilcare; Calabrese, Salvatore

2015-04-23

We report the age distribution of water in hydrologic systems has received renewed interest recently, especially in relation to watershed response to rainfall inputs. The purpose of this contribution is first to draw attention to existing theories of age distributions in population dynamics, fluid mechanics and stochastic groundwater, and in particular to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation and its generalizations and solutions. A second and more important goal is to clarify that, when hydrologic fluxes are modeled by means of time-varying stochastic processes, the age distributions must themselves be treated as random functions. Once their probabilistic structure is obtained, it canmore » be used to characterize the variability of age distributions in real systems and thus help quantify the inherent uncertainty in the field determination of water age. Finally, we illustrate these concepts with reference to a stochastic storage model, which has been used as a minimalist model of soil moisture and streamflow dynamics.« less

Fine resolution mapping of population age-structures for health and development applications

PubMed Central

Alegana, V. A.; Atkinson, P. M.; Pezzulo, C.; Sorichetta, A.; Weiss, D.; Bird, T.; Erbach-Schoenberg, E.; Tatem, A. J.

2015-01-01

The age-group composition of populations varies considerably across the world, and obtaining accurate, spatially detailed estimates of numbers of children under 5 years is important in designing vaccination strategies, educational planning or maternal healthcare delivery. Traditionally, such estimates are derived from population censuses, but these can often be unreliable, outdated and of coarse resolution for resource-poor settings. Focusing on Nigeria, we use nationally representative household surveys and their cluster locations to predict the proportion of the under-five population in 1 × 1 km using a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model. Results showed that land cover, travel time to major settlements, night-time lights and vegetation index were good predictors and that accounting for fine-scale variation, rather than assuming a uniform proportion of under 5 year olds can result in significant differences in health metrics. The largest gaps in estimated bednet and vaccination coverage were in Kano, Katsina and Jigawa. Geolocated household surveys are a valuable resource for providing detailed, contemporary and regularly updated population age-structure data in the absence of recent census data. By combining these with covariate layers, age-structure maps of unprecedented detail can be produced to guide the targeting of interventions in resource-poor settings. PMID:25788540

Fine resolution mapping of population age-structures for health and development applications.

PubMed

Alegana, V A; Atkinson, P M; Pezzulo, C; Sorichetta, A; Weiss, D; Bird, T; Erbach-Schoenberg, E; Tatem, A J

2015-04-06

The age-group composition of populations varies considerably across the world, and obtaining accurate, spatially detailed estimates of numbers of children under 5 years is important in designing vaccination strategies, educational planning or maternal healthcare delivery. Traditionally, such estimates are derived from population censuses, but these can often be unreliable, outdated and of coarse resolution for resource-poor settings. Focusing on Nigeria, we use nationally representative household surveys and their cluster locations to predict the proportion of the under-five population in 1 × 1 km using a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model. Results showed that land cover, travel time to major settlements, night-time lights and vegetation index were good predictors and that accounting for fine-scale variation, rather than assuming a uniform proportion of under 5 year olds can result in significant differences in health metrics. The largest gaps in estimated bednet and vaccination coverage were in Kano, Katsina and Jigawa. Geolocated household surveys are a valuable resource for providing detailed, contemporary and regularly updated population age-structure data in the absence of recent census data. By combining these with covariate layers, age-structure maps of unprecedented detail can be produced to guide the targeting of interventions in resource-poor settings.

Age structured dynamical model for an endangered lizard Eulamprus leuraensis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Supriatna, A. K.; Rachmadani, Q.; Ilahi, F.; Anggriani, N.; Nuraini, N.

2014-02-01

The Blue Mountains Water Skink, Eulamprus leuraensis, is listed as an endangered species under the IUCN Red List. This lizard species has a typical characteristic of growth with a low fecundity. It is known that the offspring quality may decline with maternal age of the parents despite they can grow rapidly from neonatal size to adult size within two to three years. It is also believed that low adult survival rates and specialization on rare and fragmented type of habitat are the main cause leading to the endangered status of the lizard. A mathematical model with age structure for Eulamprus leuraensis, taking into account the variation of survival rate in each structure and the declining of offspring quality with respect to maternal age is considered here. Stable coexistence of non-trivial equilibriumis shown. It is also shown that an endangered status is due to combination oflow reproductive output and low rates of adult survival. Further, understanding the age structure within populations can facilitate efective management of the endangered species.

Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) population dynamics and bamboo (subfamily Bambusoideae) life history: a structured population approach to examining carrying capacity when the prey are semelparous

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, J.; Ackleh, A.S.; Leonard, B.P.; Wang, Hongfang

1999-01-01

The giant panda, Ailuropoda melanoleuca, is a highly specialized Ursid whose diet consists almost entirely of various species of bamboo. Bamboo (Bambusoideae) is a grass subfamily whose species often exhibit a synchronous semelparity. Synchronous semelparity can create local drops in carrying capacity for the panda. We modeled the interaction of pandas and their bamboo food resources with an age structured panda population model linked to a natural history model of bamboo biomass dynamics based on literature values of bamboo biomass, and giant panda life history dynamics. This paper reports the results of our examination of the interaction between pandas and their bamboo food resource and its implications for panda conservation. In the model all panda populations were well below the carrying capacity of the habitat. The giant panda populations growth was most sensitive to changes in birth rates and removal of reproductive aged individuals. Periodic starvation that has been documented in conjunction with bamboo die-offs is probably related to the inability to move to other areas within the region where bamboo is still available. Based on the results of this model, giant panda conservation should concentrate on keeping breeding individuals in the wild, keep corridors to different bamboo species open to pandas, and to concentrate research on bamboo life history.

Effects of aging in catastrophe on the steady state and dynamics of a microtubule population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jemseena, V.; Gopalakrishnan, Manoj

2015-05-01

Several independent observations have suggested that the catastrophe transition in microtubules is not a first-order process, as is usually assumed. Recent in vitro observations by Gardner et al. [M. K. Gardner et al., Cell 147, 1092 (2011), 10.1016/j.cell.2011.10.037] showed that microtubule catastrophe takes place via multiple steps and the frequency increases with the age of the filament. Here we investigate, via numerical simulations and mathematical calculations, some of the consequences of the age dependence of catastrophe on the dynamics of microtubules as a function of the aging rate, for two different models of aging: exponential growth, but saturating asymptotically, and purely linear growth. The boundary demarcating the steady-state and non-steady-state regimes in the dynamics is derived analytically in both cases. Numerical simulations, supported by analytical calculations in the linear model, show that aging leads to nonexponential length distributions in steady state. More importantly, oscillations ensue in microtubule length and velocity. The regularity of oscillations, as characterized by the negative dip in the autocorrelation function, is reduced by increasing the frequency of rescue events. Our study shows that the age dependence of catastrophe could function as an intrinsic mechanism to generate oscillatory dynamics in a microtubule population, distinct from hitherto identified ones.

World Population Ageing, 1950-2050.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations, New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs.

Population aging was one of the most distinctive events of the 20th century and will remain important throughout the 21st century. Initially, a phenomenon of more developed countries, the process has recently become apparent in much of the developing world as well. The shift in age structure associated with population aging has a profound impact…

Age- and sex-specific mortality and population structure in sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Burdin, A.M.; Ryazanov, D.A.

2000-01-01

We used 742 beach-cast carcasses to characterize age- and sex-specific sea otter mortality during the winter of 1990-1991 at Bering Island, Russia. We also examined 363 carcasses recovered after the 1989 grounding of the T/V Exxon Valdez, to characterize age and sex composition in the living western Prince William Sound (WPWS) sea otter population. At Bering Island, mortality was male-biased (81%), and 75% were adults. The WPWS population was female-biased (59%) and most animals were subadult (79% of the males and 45% of the females). In the decade prior to 1990-1991 we found increasing sea otter densities (particularly among males), declining prey resources, and declining weights in adult male sea otters at Bering Island. Our findings suggest the increased mortality at Bering Island in 1990-1991 was a density-dependent population response. We propose male-maintained breeding territories and exclusion of juvenile females by adult females, providing a mechanism for maintaining densities in female areas below densities in male areas and for potentially moderating the effects of prey reductions on the female population. Increased adult male mortality at Bering Island in 1990-1991 likely modified the sex and age class structure there toward that observed in Prince William Sound.

Population genomics of Bronze Age Eurasia.

PubMed

Allentoft, Morten E; Sikora, Martin; Sjögren, Karl-Göran; Rasmussen, Simon; Rasmussen, Morten; Stenderup, Jesper; Damgaard, Peter B; Schroeder, Hannes; Ahlström, Torbjörn; Vinner, Lasse; Malaspinas, Anna-Sapfo; Margaryan, Ashot; Higham, Tom; Chivall, David; Lynnerup, Niels; Harvig, Lise; Baron, Justyna; Della Casa, Philippe; Dąbrowski, Paweł; Duffy, Paul R; Ebel, Alexander V; Epimakhov, Andrey; Frei, Karin; Furmanek, Mirosław; Gralak, Tomasz; Gromov, Andrey; Gronkiewicz, Stanisław; Grupe, Gisela; Hajdu, Tamás; Jarysz, Radosław; Khartanovich, Valeri; Khokhlov, Alexandr; Kiss, Viktória; Kolář, Jan; Kriiska, Aivar; Lasak, Irena; Longhi, Cristina; McGlynn, George; Merkevicius, Algimantas; Merkyte, Inga; Metspalu, Mait; Mkrtchyan, Ruzan; Moiseyev, Vyacheslav; Paja, László; Pálfi, György; Pokutta, Dalia; Pospieszny, Łukasz; Price, T Douglas; Saag, Lehti; Sablin, Mikhail; Shishlina, Natalia; Smrčka, Václav; Soenov, Vasilii I; Szeverényi, Vajk; Tóth, Gusztáv; Trifanova, Synaru V; Varul, Liivi; Vicze, Magdolna; Yepiskoposyan, Levon; Zhitenev, Vladislav; Orlando, Ludovic; Sicheritz-Pontén, Thomas; Brunak, Søren; Nielsen, Rasmus; Kristiansen, Kristian; Willerslev, Eske

2015-06-11

The Bronze Age of Eurasia (around 3000-1000 BC) was a period of major cultural changes. However, there is debate about whether these changes resulted from the circulation of ideas or from human migrations, potentially also facilitating the spread of languages and certain phenotypic traits. We investigated this by using new, improved methods to sequence low-coverage genomes from 101 ancient humans from across Eurasia. We show that the Bronze Age was a highly dynamic period involving large-scale population migrations and replacements, responsible for shaping major parts of present-day demographic structure in both Europe and Asia. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesized spread of Indo-European languages during the Early Bronze Age. We also demonstrate that light skin pigmentation in Europeans was already present at high frequency in the Bronze Age, but not lactose tolerance, indicating a more recent onset of positive selection on lactose tolerance than previously thought.

Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

PubMed

Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

2018-02-03

For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

Population structure and dynamics of northern pike and smallmouth bass in Coeur d’Alene Lake, Idaho.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walrath, John D.; Quist, Michael C.; Firehammer, Jon A.

2015-01-01

Numerous species have been introduced to Coeur d'Alene Lake, Idaho over the last century, but minimal research has been completed to understand their population dynamics. The objective of this study was to describe the population demographics and dynamics of northern pike (Esox lucius) and smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), two important nonnative sport fishes in the system to provide information that will assist with guiding management decisions. The oldest northern pike was age 7 and the oldest smallmouth bass was age 11. Populations of both species exhibited very stable recruitment with a recruitment coefficient of determination of 0.99 for northern pike and 0.98 for smallmouth bass. Total annual mortality was estimated as 66% for northern pike and 42% for smallmouth bass. Growth of northern pike in Coeur d'Alene Lake was comparable to the 50–75th percentiles of growth exhibited by lentic northern pike populations across North America. Northern pike in Coeur d'Alene Lake were most similar to populations in the north-central and northeast United States with fast growth rates and short life spans. In contrast, smallmouth bass grew slowly and generally fell within the 5th percentile of lentic smallmouth bass populations in North America. Smallmouth bass in Coeur d'Alene Lake were similar to other populations in northern regions of the United States displaying slow growth rates with high longevity. Results of this study provide important insight on nonnative northern pike and smallmouth bass population dynamics.

Age-Sex Structure of the Population and Demographic Processes in Environmentally Challenged Mining Region (on the example of Kemerovo region)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leshukov, Timofey; Brel, Olga; Zaytseva, Anna; Kaizer, Philipp; Makarov, Kirill

2017-11-01

The main goal of the article is to show the influence of the age-sex structure of the population on the basic demographic processes in the Kemerovo region. During research the authors have established correlation links between the sex-age structure of the population and the main demographic indicators (birth and mortality rate, morbidity rate, migration and others) based on the analysis of official statistical data. The direct influence of internal and external factors on the age-sex structure of the population is revealed. Conclusions about the impact of demographic processes on the sex-age structure of the population of the Kemerovo region are drawn.

[The demographic aging of the Austrian population: on the long-term changes in the age structure in Austria].

PubMed

Kytir, J

1995-01-01

"The Austrian population is presently in the middle of its age structure transition which started with World War I and will continue until the 40s of the next century. Within this time period the number of people aged 60 years or over will increase from about half a million to 2.8 million (1995: 1.6 million) and the share of the elderly will mount from about 9 percent to more than 35 percent (1995: 20 percent). The present article points out the demographic causes for population aging asking whether high fertility and/or high numbers of migrants can stop the aging process. Different measurements of demographic aging in Austria (share of various age groups, mean age and median age, dependency ratios, several aging indices) are calculated for the time period 1869 to 2050. Special attention is paid to regional differences within Austria and to changes of the sex ratio at older ages over time." (EXCERPT)

On the probabilistic structure of water age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porporato, Amilcare; Calabrese, Salvatore

2015-05-01

The age distribution of water in hydrologic systems has received renewed interest recently, especially in relation to watershed response to rainfall inputs. The purpose of this contribution is first to draw attention to existing theories of age distributions in population dynamics, fluid mechanics and stochastic groundwater, and in particular to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation and its generalizations and solutions. A second and more important goal is to clarify that, when hydrologic fluxes are modeled by means of time-varying stochastic processes, the age distributions must themselves be treated as random functions. Once their probabilistic structure is obtained, it can be used to characterize the variability of age distributions in real systems and thus help quantify the inherent uncertainty in the field determination of water age. We illustrate these concepts with reference to a stochastic storage model, which has been used as a minimalist model of soil moisture and streamflow dynamics.

Structure of the New England herring gull population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kadlec, J.A.; Drury, W.H.

1968-01-01

Measurements of the rates of population increase, reproduction, and mortality together with an observed age ratio, were used to analyze the population of the Herring Gull in New England. Data from sporadic censuses prior to this study, aerial censuses by the authors, and National Audubon Society Christmas Bird Count indicated that the New England breeding population has been doubling every 12 to 15 years since the early 1900's. This increase has involved founding new colonies and expanding the breeding range There is evidence that 15 to 30% of the adults do not breed in any given year. Sixty-one productivity measurements on 43 islands from 1963 through 1966, involving almost 13,000 nests, showed that from 0.8 to 1.4 young/breeding pair/year is the usual range of rate of production. The age distribution in the population was determined by classifying Herring Gulls by plumage category on an aerial census of the coast from Tampico, Mexico, to Cape Sable, Nova Scotia. Of the 622,000 gulls observed, 68% were adults, 17% were second- and third-year birds, and 15% were first-year birds. Mortality rates derived from band recovery data were too high to be consistent with the observed rate of population growth, productivity, and age structure. Loss of bands increasing to the rate of about 20%/year 5 years after banding eliminates most of the discrepancy. The age structure and rate of population increase indicate a mortality rate of 4 to 9% for gulls 2 years old or older, compared with the 25 to 30% indicated by band recoveries. The population structure we have developed fits everything we have observed about Herring Gull population dynamics, except mortality based on band recoveries.

Strategy selection in structured populations.

PubMed

Tarnita, Corina E; Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Antal, Tibor; Fu, Feng; Nowak, Martin A

2009-08-07

Evolutionary game theory studies frequency dependent selection. The fitness of a strategy is not constant, but depends on the relative frequencies of strategies in the population. This type of evolutionary dynamics occurs in many settings of ecology, infectious disease dynamics, animal behavior and social interactions of humans. Traditionally evolutionary game dynamics are studied in well-mixed populations, where the interaction between any two individuals is equally likely. There have also been several approaches to study evolutionary games in structured populations. In this paper we present a simple result that holds for a large variety of population structures. We consider the game between two strategies, A and B, described by the payoff matrix(abcd). We study a mutation and selection process. For weak selection strategy A is favored over B if and only if sigma a+b>c+sigma d. This means the effect of population structure on strategy selection can be described by a single parameter, sigma. We present the values of sigma for various examples including the well-mixed population, games on graphs, games in phenotype space and games on sets. We give a proof for the existence of such a sigma, which holds for all population structures and update rules that have certain (natural) properties. We assume weak selection, but allow any mutation rate. We discuss the relationship between sigma and the critical benefit to cost ratio for the evolution of cooperation. The single parameter, sigma, allows us to quantify the ability of a population structure to promote the evolution of cooperation or to choose efficient equilibria in coordination games.

Stand development and population dynamics of curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) woodlands in Utah's Bear River Mountains

Treesearch

Seth A. Ex; Robert DeRose; James N. Long

2011-01-01

Curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) is a little-studied woodland tree that occurs in pure stands throughout the Intermountain West. Stand development and population dynamics of this species are poorly understood, despite their relevance to management. We describe here the development of stand age structures and population dynamics of mahogany...

Spatiotemporal variation in survival rates: implications for population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Armitage, Kenneth B; Blumstein, Daniel T; Oli, Madan K

2006-04-01

Spatiotemporal variation in age-specific survival rates can profoundly influence population dynamics, but few studies of vertebrates have thoroughly investigated both spatial and temporal variability in age-specific survival rates. We used 28 years (1976-2003) of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data from 17 locations to parameterize an age-structured Cormack-Jolly-Seber model, and investigated spatial and temporal variation in age-specific annual survival rates of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris). Survival rates varied both spatially and temporally, with survival of younger animals exhibiting the highest degree of variation. Juvenile survival rates varied from 0.52 +/- 0.05 to 0.78 +/- 0.10 among sites and from 0.15 +/- 0.14 to 0.89 +/- 0.06 over time. Adult survival rates varied from 0.62 +/- 0.09 to 0.80 +/- 0.03 among sites, but did not vary significantly over time. We used reverse-time CMR models to estimate the realized population growth rate (lamda), and to investigate the influence of the observed variation in age-specific survival rates on lamda. The realized growth rate of the population closely covaried with, and was significantly influenced by, spatiotemporal variation in juvenile survival rate. High variability in juvenile survival rates over space and time clearly influenced the dynamics of our study population and is also likely to be an important determinant of the spatiotemporal variation in the population dynamics of other mammals with similar life history characteristics.

Temporal analysis of genetic structure to assess population dynamics of reintroduced swift foxes.

PubMed

Cullingham, Catherine I; Moehrenschlager, Axel

2013-12-01

Reintroductions are increasingly used to reestablish species, but a paucity of long-term postrelease monitoring has limited understanding of whether and when viable populations subsequently persist. We conducted temporal genetic analyses of reintroduced populations of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) in Canada (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and the United States (Montana). We used samples collected 4 years apart, 17 years from the initiation of the reintroduction, and 3 years after the conclusion of releases. To assess program success, we genotyped 304 hair samples, subsampled from the known range in 2000 and 2001, and 2005 and 2006, at 7 microsatellite loci. We compared diversity, effective population size, and genetic connectivity over time in each population. Diversity remained stable over time and there was evidence of increasing effective population size. We determined population structure in both periods after correcting for differences in sample sizes. The geographic distribution of these populations roughly corresponded with the original release locations, which suggests the release sites had residual effects on the population structure. However, given that both reintroduction sites had similar source populations, habitat fragmentation, due to cropland, may be associated with the population structure we found. Although our results indicate growing, stable populations, future connectivity analyses are warranted to ensure both populations are not subject to negative small-population effects. Our results demonstrate the importance of multiple sampling years to fully capture population dynamics of reintroduced populations. Análisis Temporal de la Estructura Genética para Evaluar la Dinámica Poblacional de Zorros (Vulpes velox) Reintroducidos. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Social inequality in dynamic balance performance in an early old age Spanish population: the role of health and lifestyle associated factors.

PubMed

Rodríguez López, Santiago; Nilsson, Charlotte; Lund, Rikke; Montero, Pilar; Fernández-Ballesteros, Rocío; Avlund, Kirsten

2012-01-01

This study investigates the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and dynamic balance performance and whether lifestyle factors explained any possible associations. A total of 448 nondisabled individuals, age-range 54-75 years and enrolled in the Active Aging Longitudinal Study of Spain in 2006, constituted the study population. Baseline data of this cross-sectional study were obtained by personal interviews and objective measures of balance performance. The present study shows an educational gradient in poor dynamic balance, where individuals with no formal education had higher risk of poor balance, also after adjustment for age, gender, obesity and physical activity. In addition, obesity and sedentary physical activity were related to poor dynamic balance. The findings suggest an independent effect of both SES and behavioral factors on poor balance performance in the older Spanish population. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the relationship between cell cycle analysis with ergodic principles and age-structured cell population models.

PubMed

Kuritz, K; Stöhr, D; Pollak, N; Allgöwer, F

2017-02-07

Cyclic processes, in particular the cell cycle, are of great importance in cell biology. Continued improvement in cell population analysis methods like fluorescence microscopy, flow cytometry, CyTOF or single-cell omics made mathematical methods based on ergodic principles a powerful tool in studying these processes. In this paper, we establish the relationship between cell cycle analysis with ergodic principles and age structured population models. To this end, we describe the progression of a single cell through the cell cycle by a stochastic differential equation on a one dimensional manifold in the high dimensional dataspace of cell cycle markers. Given the assumption that the cell population is in a steady state, we derive transformation rules which transform the number density on the manifold to the steady state number density of age structured population models. Our theory facilitates the study of cell cycle dependent processes including local molecular events, cell death and cell division from high dimensional "snapshot" data. Ergodic analysis can in general be applied to every process that exhibits a steady state distribution. By combining ergodic analysis with age structured population models we furthermore provide the theoretic basis for extensions of ergodic principles to distribution that deviate from their steady state. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Host population structure and treatment frequency maintain balancing selection on drug resistance

PubMed Central

Baskerville, Edward B.; Colijn, Caroline; Hanage, William; Fraser, Christophe; Lipsitch, Marc

2017-01-01

It is a truism that antimicrobial drugs select for resistance, but explaining pathogen- and population-specific variation in patterns of resistance remains an open problem. Like other common commensals, Streptococcus pneumoniae has demonstrated persistent coexistence of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains. Theoretically, this outcome is unlikely. We modelled the dynamics of competing strains of S. pneumoniae to investigate the impact of transmission dynamics and treatment-induced selective pressures on the probability of stable coexistence. We find that the outcome of competition is extremely sensitive to structure in the host population, although coexistence can arise from age-assortative transmission models with age-varying rates of antibiotic use. Moreover, we find that the selective pressure from antibiotics arises not so much from the rate of antibiotic use per se but from the frequency of treatment: frequent antibiotic therapy disproportionately impacts the fitness of sensitive strains. This same phenomenon explains why serotypes with longer durations of carriage tend to be more resistant. These dynamics may apply to other potentially pathogenic, microbial commensals and highlight how population structure, which is often omitted from models, can have a large impact. PMID:28835542

Periodicity in Age-Resolved Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esipov, Sergei

We discuss the interplay between the non-linear diffusion and age-resolved population dynamics. Depending on the age properties of collective migration the system may exhibit continuous joint expansion of all ages or continuous expansion with age segregation. Between these two obvious limiting regimes there is an interesting window of periodic expansion, which has been previously used by us in modeling bacterial colonies of Proteus mirabilis. In order to test whether the age-dependent collective migration leads to periodicity in other systems we performed a Fourier analysis of historical data on ethnic expansions and found multiple co-existing periods of activity.

Change in the structures, dynamics and disease-related mortality rates of the population of Qatari nationals: 2007-2011.

PubMed

Al-Thani, Mohamed H; Sadoun, Eman; Al-Thani, Al-Anoud; Khalifa, Shamseldin A; Sayegh, Suzan; Badawi, Alaa

2014-12-01

Developing effective public health policies and strategies for interventions necessitates an assessment of the structure, dynamics, disease rates and causes of death in a population. Lately, Qatar has undertaken development resurgence in health and economy that resulted in improving the standard of health services and health status of the entire Qatari population (i.e., Qatari nationals and non-Qatari residents). No study has attempted to evaluate the population structure/dynamics and recent changes in disease-related mortality rates among Qatari nationals. The present study examines the population structure/dynamics and the related changes in the cause-specific mortality rates and disease prevalence in the Qatari nationals. This is a retrospective, analytic descriptive analysis covering a period of 5years (2007-2011) and utilizes a range of data sources from the State of Qatar including the population structure, disease-related mortality rates, and the prevalence of a range of chronic and infectious diseases. Factors reflecting population dynamics such as crude death (CDR), crude birth (CBR), total fertility (TFR) and infant mortality (IMR) rates were also calculated. The Qatari nationals is an expansive population with an annual growth rate of ∼4% and a stable male:female ratio. The CDR declined by 15% within the study period, whereas the CBR was almost stable. The total disease-specific death rate, however, was decreased among the Qatari nationals by 23% due to the decline in mortality rates attributed to diseases of the blood and immune system (43%), nervous system (44%) and cardiovascular system (41%). There was a high prevalence of a range of chronic diseases, whereas very low frequencies of the infectious diseases within the study population. Public health strategies, approaches and programs developed to reduce disease burden and the related death, should be tailored to target the population of Qatari nationals which exhibits characteristics that vary from

Effects of recruitment, growth, and exploitation on walleye population size structure in northern Wisconsin lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.

2014-01-01

We evaluated the dynamics of walleye Sander vitreus population size structure, as indexed by the proportional size distribution (PSD) of quality-length fish, in Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003 and in 204 other lakes in northern Wisconsin during 1990–2011. We estimated PSD from angler-caught walleyes in Escanaba Lake and from spring electrofishing in 204 other lakes, and then related PSD to annual estimates of recruitment to age-3, length at age 3, and annual angling exploitation rate. In Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003, annual estimates of PSD were highly dynamic, growth (positively) explained 35% of PSD variation, recruitment explained only 3% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 7% of PSD variation. In 204 other northern Wisconsin lakes during 1990–2011, PSD varied widely among lakes, recruitment (negatively) explained 29% of PSD variation, growth (positively) explained 21% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 4% of PSD variation. We conclude that population size structure was most strongly driven by recruitment and growth, rather than exploitation, in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Studies of other species over wide spatial and temporal ranges of recruitment, growth, and mortality are needed to determine which dynamic rate most strongly influences population size structure of other species. Our findings indicate a need to be cautious about assuming exploitation is a strong driver of walleye population size structure.

Size and age structure of anadromous and landlocked populations of Rainbow Smelt

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Malley, Andrew; Enterline, Claire; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2017-01-01

Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax are widely distributed in both anadromous and landlocked populations throughout northeastern North America; abundance, size at age, and maximum size vary widely among populations and life histories. In the present study, size at age, von Bertalanffy growth parameters, population age distributions, and precision and bias in age assessment based on scales and sectioned otoliths were compared between ecotypes and among populations of Rainbow Smelt. To compare the ecotypes, we collected spawning adults from four anadromous and three landlocked populations in Maine during spring 2014. A significant bias was identified in only one of four scale comparisons but in four of seven otolith comparisons; however, a comparable level of precision was indicated. Anadromous populations had larger and more variable size at age and von Bertalanffy growth parameters than landlocked fish. Populations were composed of ages 1–4; six populations were dominated by age-2 or age-3 individuals, and one population was dominated by age-1 fish. These data suggest the presence of considerable plasticity among populations. A latitudinal gradient was observed in the anadromous Rainbow Smelt, which may show signs of population stress at the southern extent of their distribution.

Spatial variation in population growth rate and community structure affects local and regional dynamics.

PubMed

Trzcinski, M Kurtis; Walde, Sandra J; Taylor, Philip D

2008-11-01

1. Theory predicting that populations with high maximum rates of increase (r(max)) will be less stable, and that metapopulations with high average r(max) will be less synchronous, was tested using a small protist, Bodo, that inhabits pitcher plant leaves (Sarracenia purpurea L.). The effects of predators and resources on these relationships were also determined. 2. Abundance data collected for a total of 60 populations of Bodo, over a period of 3 months, at six sites in three bogs in eastern Canada, were used to test these predictions. Mosquitoes were manipulated in half the leaves partway through the season to increase the range of predation rates. 3. Dynamics differed greatly among leaves and sites, but most populations exhibited one or more episodes of rapid increase followed by a population crash. Estimates of r(max) obtained using a linear mixed-effects model, ranged from 1 x 5 to 2 x 7 per day. Resource levels (captured insect) and midge abundances affected r(max). 4. Higher r(max) was associated with greater temporal variability and lower synchrony as predicted. However, in contrast to expectations, populations with higher r(max) also had lower mean abundance and were more suppressed by predators. 5. This study demonstrates that the link between r(max) and temporal variability is key to understanding the dynamics of populations that spend little time near equilibrium, and to predicting and interpreting the effects of community structure on the dynamics of such populations.

Population and labour force projections for 27 European countries, 2002-052: impact of international migration on population ageing: Projections de population et de population active pour 27 pays européens 2002-052: impact de la migration internationale sur le vieillissement de la population.

PubMed

Bijak, Jakub; Kupiszewska, Dorota; Kupiszewski, Marek; Saczuk, Katarzyna; Kicinger, Anna

2007-03-01

Population and labour force projections are made for 27 selected European countries for 2002-052, focussing on the impact of international migration on population and labour force dynamics. Starting from single scenarios for fertility, mortality and economic activity, three sets of assumptions are explored regarding migration flows, taking into account probable policy developments in Europe following the enlargement of the EU. In addition to age structures, various support ratio indicators are analysed. The results indicate that plausible immigration cannot offset the negative effects of population and labour force ageing.

Population dynamics of HIV-1 inferred from gene sequences.

PubMed Central

Grassly, N C; Harvey, P H; Holmes, E C

1999-01-01

A method for the estimation of population dynamic history from sequence data is described and used to investigate the past population dynamics of HIV-1 subtypes A and B. Using both gag and env gene alignments the effective population size of each subtype is estimated and found to be surprisingly small. This may be a result of the selective sweep of mutations through the population, or may indicate an important role of genetic drift in the fixation of mutations. The implications of these results for the spread of drug-resistant mutations and transmission dynamics, and also the roles of selection and recombination in shaping HIV-1 genetic diversity, are discussed. A larger estimated effective population size for subtype A may be the result of differences in time of origin, transmission dynamics, and/or population structure. To investigate the importance of population structure a model of population subdivision was fitted to each subtype, although the improvement in likelihood was found to be nonsignificant. PMID:9927440

Population Dynamics of Genetic Regulatory Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Erez

2005-03-01

Unlike common objects in physics, a biological cell processes information. The cell interprets its genome and transforms the genomic information content, through the action of genetic regulatory networks, into proteins which in turn dictate its metabolism, functionality and morphology. Understanding the dynamics of a population of biological cells presents a unique challenge. It requires to link the intracellular dynamics of gene regulation, through the mechanism of cell division, to the level of the population. We present experiments studying adaptive dynamics of populations of genetically homogeneous microorganisms (yeast), grown for long durations under steady conditions. We focus on population dynamics that do not involve random genetic mutations. Our experiments follow the long-term dynamics of the population distributions and allow to quantify the correlations among generations. We focus on three interconnected issues: adaptation of genetically homogeneous populations following environmental changes, selection processes on the population and population variability and expression distributions. We show that while the population exhibits specific short-term responses to environmental inputs, it eventually adapts to a robust steady-state, largely independent of external conditions. Cycles of medium-switch show that the adapted state is imprinted in the population and that this memory is maintained for many generations. To further study population adaptation, we utilize the process of gene recruitment whereby a gene naturally regulated by a specific promoter is placed under a different regulatory system. This naturally occurring process has been recognized as a major driving force in evolution. We have recruited an essential gene to a foreign regulatory network and followed the population long-term dynamics. Rewiring of the regulatory network allows us to expose their complex dynamics and phase space structure.

Evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in neutral populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

2018-01-01

Cooperation is a difficult proposition in the face of Darwinian selection. Those that defect have an evolutionary advantage over cooperators who should therefore die out. However, spatial structure enables cooperators to survive through the formation of homogeneous clusters, which is the hallmark of network reciprocity. Here we go beyond this traditional setup and study the spatiotemporal dynamics of cooperation in a population of populations. We use the prisoner's dilemma game as the mathematical model and show that considering several populations simultaneously gives rise to fascinating spatiotemporal dynamics and pattern formation. Even the simplest assumption that strategies between different populations are payoff-neutral with one another results in the spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance, where defectors of one population become prey of cooperators in the other population, and vice versa. Moreover, if social interactions within different populations are characterized by significantly different temptations to defect, we observe that defectors in the population with the largest temptation counterintuitively vanish the fastest, while cooperators that hang on eventually take over the whole available space. Our results reveal that considering the simultaneous presence of different populations significantly expands the complexity of evolutionary dynamics in structured populations, and it allows us to understand the stability of cooperation under adverse conditions that could never be bridged by network reciprocity alone.

Population dynamics of rural Ethiopia.

PubMed

Bariabagar, H

1978-01-01

2 rounds of the national sample surveys, conducted by the central statistical office of Ethiopia during 1964-1967 and 1969-1971, provide the only comprehensive demographic data for the country and are the basis for this discussion of rural Ethiopia's population dynamics. The population of Ethiopia is predominantly rural. Agglomerations of 2000 and over inhabitants constitute about 14% of the population, and this indicates that Ethiopia has a low level of urbanization. In rural Ethiopia, international migration was negligent in the 1970's and the age structure can be assumed to be the results of past trends of fertility and mortality conditions. The reported crude birthrate (38.2), crude death rate (12.3) and infant mortality rate (90) of rural Ethiopia fall short of the averages for African countries. Prospects of population growth of rural Ethiopia would be immense. At the rate of natural increase of between 2.4 and 3.0% per annum, the population would double in 24-29 years. Regarding population issues, the programs of the National Democratic Revolution of Ethiopia faces the following main challenging problems: 1) carrying out national population censuses in order to obtain basic information for socialist planning; 2) minimizing or curtailing the existing high urban growth rates; 3) reducing rapidly growing population; and 5) mobilizing Ethiopian women to participate in the social, economic and political life of the country in order to create favorable conditions for future fertility reduction.

[Population structure of soil arthropod in different age Pinus massoniana plantations].

PubMed

Tan, Bo; Wu, Fu-zhong; Yang, Wan-qin; Zhang, Jian; Xu, Zhen-feng; Liu, Yang; Gou, Xiao-lin

2013-04-01

An investigation was conducted on the population structure of soil arthropod community in the 3-, 8-, 14-, 31-, and 40-years old Pinus massoniana plantations in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River in spring (May) and autumn (October), 2011, aimed to search for the scientific management of the plantation. A total of 4045 soil arthropods were collected, belonging to 57 families. Both the individual density and the taxonomic group number of the soil arthropod community decreased obviously with increasing soil depth, and this trend increased with increasing stand age. The dominant groups and ordinary groups of the soil arthropod community varied greatly with the stand age of P. massoniana plantation, and a significant difference (P<0.05) was observed in the individual density and taxonomic group number among different age P. massoniana plantations. In comparison with other stand age P. massoniana plantations, 3years old P. massoniana plantation had a significant difference in the structure and diversity of soil arthropod community, and the similarity index of the soil arthropod community was lower. The individual density, taxonomic group number, and diversity of soil arthropod community were the highest in 8-years old P. massoniana plantation, and then, decreased obviously with increasing stand age. It was suggested that the land fertility of the P. massoniana plantations could be degraded with increasing stand age, and it would be appropriate to make artificial regulation and restoration in 8-years old P. massoniana plantation.

Population dynamics of the sand shiner (notropis stramineus) in non-wadeable rivers of Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, C.D.; Neebling, T.E.; Quist, M.C.

2010-01-01

The sand shiner (Notropis stramineus) is a common cyprinid found throughout the Great Plains region of North America that plays an important ecological role in aquatic systems. This study was conducted to describe population dynamics of sand shiners including age structure, growth, mortality, and recruitment variability in 15 non-wadeable rivers in Iowa. Fish were collected during June-August (2007-2008) using a modified Missouri trawl, a seine, and boat-mounted electrofishing. Scales were removed for age and growth analysis. A total of 3,443 fish was sampled from 15 populations across Iowa, of which 676 were aged. Iowa's sand shiner populations consisted primarily of age-1 fish (53% of all fish sampled), followed by age-2 fish (30%), age-0 fish (15%), and age-3 fish (2%). Sand shiners grew an average of 38.5 mm (SE = 5.7) during their first year, 13.8 mm (4.5) during their second year, and 9.0 mm (6.9) during their third year. Total annual mortality varied from 35.0% to 92.3% among populations with a mean of 77.9% (0.2). Incremental mortality rates were 84.5% (0.2) between age 1 and age 2, and 92.0% (0.1) between age 2 and age 3. Recruitment was highly variable, as indicated by a mean recruitment variation index of-0.12 (0.54). Overall, the sand shiner was characterized by relatively low mean age, fast growth, high mortality, and high recruitment variability. Indices of sand shiner population dynamics were poorly correlated with habitat characteristics.

The demographic components of population aging in China.

PubMed

Grigsby, J S; Olshansky, S J

1989-01-01

"In this paper we examine measures of population aging in China from 1953 to 1982, and then project population aging to the year 2050 using a cohort-components methodology.... Results indicate that China's population will age at an unprecedented rate over the next 70 years, both in terms of the absolute size of the elderly population and their proportion of the total population. At least 50 percent of the projected increase in population aging in China between 1980 and 2050 will be a product of the momentum for aging that is already built into the present age structure and vital rates. However, prospective trends in the measures of population aging become increasingly more sensitive to varying assumptions about fertility and mortality with time, and as older age groups are considered." excerpt

Plasmodium vivax population structure and transmission dynamics in Sabah Malaysia.

PubMed

Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W; Anstey, Nicholas M; Price, Ric N; Auburn, Sarah

2013-01-01

Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A (S) >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (I A (S)  = 0.07 [P = 0.0076] in KM, and I A (S) = -0.003 [P = 0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for

Plasmodium vivax Population Structure and Transmission Dynamics in Sabah Malaysia

PubMed Central

Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E.; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J.; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

2013-01-01

Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A S >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (I A S  = 0.07 [P = 0.0076] in KM, and I A S = -0.003 [P = 0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria

Population dynamics and evaluation of alternative management strategies for nonnative Lake Trout in Priest Lake, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ng, Elizabeth L.; Fredericks, Jim P.; Quist, Michael C.

2016-01-01

Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush have been introduced widely throughout the western USA to enhance recreational fisheries, but high predatory demand can create challenges for management of yield and trophy fisheries alike. Lake Trout were introduced to Priest Lake, Idaho, during the 1920s, but few fishery-independent data are available to guide current or future management actions. We collected fishery-independent data to describe population dynamics and evaluate potential management scenarios using an age-structured population model. Lake Trout in Priest Lake were characterized by fast growth at young ages, which resulted in young age at maturity. However, adult growth rates and body condition were lower than for other Lake Trout populations. High rates of skipped spawning (>50%) were also observed. Model projections indicated that the population was growing (λ = 1.03). Eradication could be achieved by increasing annual mortality to 0.32, approximately twice the current rate. A protected slot length limit could increase population length-structure, but few fish grew fast enough to exit the slot. In contrast, a juvenile removal scenario targeting age-2 to age-5 Lake Trout maintained short-term harvest of trophy-length individuals while reducing overall population abundance.

Towards a novel model for studying the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian population by age and socioeconomic status

PubMed Central

Sarmiento, Olga L.; Olaya, Camilo; Lemoine, Pablo D.; Valdivia, Juan A.; Zarama, Roberto

2018-01-01

Low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) are experiencing a nutritional transition in which the burden of obesity tends to shift towards the lower-socioeconomic status (SES) group. We propose a system dynamics (SD) model for assessing the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian urban population by age and SES projected to 2030. This SD model captures the ageing population according to body mass index (BMI) categories and SES. In this model, the transference rates (TRs) between BMI categories by age and SES are estimated using a heuristic based on data obtained from national surveys. The simulation results show that the Colombian population, particularly those aged 20 to 39 years with a lower SES, is moving towards the overweight and obese categories. The TRs for overweight and obese categories in the lower SES group (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0215 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0098 (per year)) are increasing more rapidly than the those in the middle (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0162 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0065 (per year)) and higher SES groups (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0166 and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0054 (per year)). Additionally, from 2005 to 2010, individuals aged 20 to 39 years had the highest TRs towards the overweight and obese categories (from 0.026 to 0.036 per year and from 0.0064 to 0.012 per year, respectively). The TRs also indicated that children aged 0 to 14 years are moving from the obese to overweight and from the overweight to not overweight categories. These TRs show that the Colombian population is experiencing an SES-related nutritional transition that is affecting the lower SES population. The proposed model could be implemented to assess the nutritional transitions experienced in other LMICs. PMID:29420563

Towards a novel model for studying the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian population by age and socioeconomic status.

PubMed

Meisel, Jose D; Sarmiento, Olga L; Olaya, Camilo; Lemoine, Pablo D; Valdivia, Juan A; Zarama, Roberto

2018-01-01

Low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) are experiencing a nutritional transition in which the burden of obesity tends to shift towards the lower-socioeconomic status (SES) group. We propose a system dynamics (SD) model for assessing the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian urban population by age and SES projected to 2030. This SD model captures the ageing population according to body mass index (BMI) categories and SES. In this model, the transference rates (TRs) between BMI categories by age and SES are estimated using a heuristic based on data obtained from national surveys. The simulation results show that the Colombian population, particularly those aged 20 to 39 years with a lower SES, is moving towards the overweight and obese categories. The TRs for overweight and obese categories in the lower SES group (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0215 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0098 (per year)) are increasing more rapidly than the those in the middle (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0162 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0065 (per year)) and higher SES groups (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0166 and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0054 (per year)). Additionally, from 2005 to 2010, individuals aged 20 to 39 years had the highest TRs towards the overweight and obese categories (from 0.026 to 0.036 per year and from 0.0064 to 0.012 per year, respectively). The TRs also indicated that children aged 0 to 14 years are moving from the obese to overweight and from the overweight to not overweight categories. These TRs show that the Colombian population is experiencing an SES-related nutritional transition that is affecting the lower SES population. The proposed model could be implemented to assess the nutritional transitions experienced in other LMICs.

Landscape Pattern Determines Neighborhood Size and Structure within a Lizard Population

PubMed Central

Ryberg, Wade A.; Hill, Michael T.; Painter, Charles W.; Fitzgerald, Lee A.

2013-01-01

Although defining population structure according to discrete habitat patches is convenient for metapopulation theories, taking this approach may overlook structure within populations continuously distributed across landscapes. For example, landscape features within habitat patches direct the movement of organisms and define the density distribution of individuals, which can generate spatial structure and localized dynamics within populations as well as among them. Here, we use the neighborhood concept, which describes population structure relative to the scale of individual movements, to illustrate how localized dynamics within a population of lizards (Sceloporus arenicolus) arise in response to variation in landscape pattern within a continuous habitat patch. Our results emphasize links between individual movements at small scales and the emergence of spatial structure within populations which resembles metapopulation dynamics at larger scales. We conclude that population dynamics viewed in a landscape context must consider the explicit distribution and movement of individuals within continuous habitat as well as among habitat patches. PMID:23441217

Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China.

PubMed

Zhao, Yang; Jia, Xin; Lee, Harry F; Zhao, Hongqiang; Cai, Shuliang; Huang, Xianjin

2017-01-01

It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368-1911). Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span) of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China.

Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China

PubMed Central

Zhao, Yang; Lee, Harry F.; Zhao, Hongqiang; Cai, Shuliang; Huang, Xianjin

2017-01-01

It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368–1911). Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span) of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China. PMID:28792976

Impact of the HIV epidemic on population and household structure: the dynamics and evidence to date.

PubMed

Heuveline, Patrick

2004-06-01

HIV is contracted most frequently at birth and during early adulthood. The epidemic may thus impact the demographic structure and the household structure of affected populations. This paper reviews earlier evidence of such an impact, uses demographic theory to anticipate its changes over time, and reviews the most recent evidence for indications of these changes. Modest increases in the male : female ratio are beginning to show within certain age groups only (approximately 15% among 25-34 year olds). Similarly sized increases in the proportion of 15-29 year olds relative to 30-54 year olds are observed in some age pyramids. These 'youth bulges' are expected to fade out, whereas an aging effect phases in with the fertility impact of the epidemic. In the longer run, the size of all age groups will be reduced, but relatively less so for middle-aged adults. Proportions of orphans and widows have increased in the most affected countries. Fewer remarriage probabilities for widows were observed. Resulting increases in the proportion of female-headed households should only be temporary, as female mortality is catching up with male mortality. The number of double orphans is beginning to increase, but overall, orphans continue to live predominantly with a family member, most often the grandparents if not with the surviving parent. To date, the epidemic's impact on the population and household structure has been limited by demographic (aging) and social (adaptive movements of kin across households) processes that contribute to diffuse the epidemic throughout the entire population and all households.

Aspiration dynamics in structured population acts as if in a well-mixed one.

PubMed

Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Wang, Long

2015-01-26

Understanding the evolution of human interactive behaviors is important. Recent experimental results suggest that human cooperation in spatial structured population is not enhanced as predicted in previous works, when payoff-dependent imitation updating rules are used. This constraint opens up an avenue to shed light on how humans update their strategies in real life. Studies via simulations show that, instead of comparison rules, self-evaluation driven updating rules may explain why spatial structure does not alter the evolutionary outcome. Though inspiring, there is a lack of theoretical result to show the existence of such evolutionary updating rule. Here we study the aspiration dynamics, and show that it does not alter the evolutionary outcome in various population structures. Under weak selection, by analytical approximation, we find that the favored strategy in regular graphs is invariant. Further, we show that this is because the criterion under which a strategy is favored is the same as that of a well-mixed population. By simulation, we show that this holds for random networks. Although how humans update their strategies is an open question to be studied, our results provide a theoretical foundation of the updating rules that may capture the real human updating rules.

Evolutionary Dynamics of Collective Action in Structured Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Marta Daniela de Almeida

The pervasiveness of cooperation in Nature is not easily explained. If evolution is characterized by competition and survival of the fittest, why should selfish individuals cooperate with each other? Evolutionary Game Theory (EGT) provides a suitable mathematical framework to study this problem, central to many areas of science. Conventionally, interactions between individuals are modeled in terms of one-shot, symmetric 2-Person Dilemmas of Cooperation, but many real-life situations involve decisions within groups with more than 2 individuals, which are best-dealt in the framework of N-Person games. In this Thesis, we investigate the evolutionary dynamics of two paradigmatic collective social dilemmas - the N-Person Prisoner's Dilemma (NPD) and the N-Person Snowdrift Game (NSG) on structured populations, modeled by networks with diverse topological properties. Cooperative strategies are just one example of the many traits that can be transmitted on social networks. Several recent studies based on empirical evidence from a medical database have suggested the existence of a 3 degrees of influence rule, according to which not only our "friends", but also our friends' friends, and our friends' friends' friends, have a non-trivial influence on our decisions. We investigate the degree of peer influence that emerges from the spread of cooperative strategies, opinions and diseases on populations with distinct underlying networks of contacts. Our results show that networks naturally entangle individuals into interactions of many-body nature and that for each network class considered different processes lead to identical degrees of influence. None

The influence of climatic variability on local population dynamics of Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, Janice E.; Turner, R.M.

2002-01-01

This study investigated correlations among climatic variability, population age structure, and seedling survival of a dominant Sonoran Desert tree, Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde), at Tucson, Arizona, USA. A major goal was to determine whether wet years promote seedling establishment and thereby determine population structure. Plant age was estimated from basal circumference for a sample of 980 living and dead trees in twelve 0.5-ha plots. Ages ranged from 1 to 181 years. Age frequency distribution showed that the population is in decline. Most (51.2%) of the 814 living trees were 40-80 years old; only 6.5% were younger than 20 years. The average age of the 166 dead trees was 78 years. Fifty-nine percent of dead trees were aged 60-100 years. Survival of newly emerged seedlings was monitored for 7 years in a 557-m2 permanent plot. Mean survival in the 1st year of life was 1.7%. Only 2 of 1,008 seedlings lived longer than 1 year. Length of survival was not correlated with rainfall. Residual regeneration, an index of the difference between predicted and observed cohort size, showed that regeneration was high during the first half of the twentieth century and poor after the mid-1950s. Trends in regeneration did not reflect interannual variation in seasonal temperature or rain before 1950, that is, in the years before urban warming. Taken together, the seedling study and the regeneration analysis suggest that local population dynamics reflect biotic factors to such an extent that population age structure might not always be a reliable clue to past climatic influences.

Age-specific infectious period shapes dynamics of pneumonia in bighorn sheep.

PubMed

Plowright, Raina K; Manlove, Kezia R; Besser, Thomas E; Páez, David J; Andrews, Kimberly R; Matthews, Patrick E; Waits, Lisette P; Hudson, Peter J; Cassirer, E Frances

2017-10-01

Superspreading, the phenomenon where a small proportion of individuals contribute disproportionately to new infections, has profound effects on disease dynamics. Superspreading can arise through variation in contacts, infectiousness or infectious periods. The latter has received little attention, yet it drives the dynamics of many diseases of critical public health, livestock health and conservation concern. Here, we present rare evidence of variation in infectious periods underlying a superspreading phenomenon in a free-ranging wildlife system. We detected persistent infections of Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae, the primary causative agent of pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), in a small number of older individuals that were homozygous at an immunologically relevant genetic locus. Interactions among age-structure, genetic composition and infectious periods may drive feedbacks in disease dynamics that determine the magnitude of population response to infection. Accordingly, variation in initial conditions may explain divergent population responses to infection that range from recovery to catastrophic decline and extirpation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Analysis of an age structured model for tick populations subject to seasonal effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Kaihui; Lou, Yijun; Wu, Jianhong

2017-08-01

We investigate an age-structured hyperbolic equation model by allowing the birth and death functions to be density dependent and periodic in time with the consideration of seasonal effects. By studying the integral form solution of this general hyperbolic equation obtained through the method of integration along characteristics, we give a detailed proof of the uniqueness and existence of the solution in light of the contraction mapping theorem. With additional biologically natural assumptions, using the tick population growth as a motivating example, we derive an age-structured model with time-dependent periodic maturation delays, which is quite different from the existing population models with time-independent maturation delays. For this periodic differential system with seasonal delays, the basic reproduction number R0 is defined as the spectral radius of the next generation operator. Then, we show the tick population tends to die out when R0 < 1 while remains persistent if R0 > 1. When there is no intra-specific competition among immature individuals due to the sufficient availability of immature tick hosts, the global stability of the positive periodic state for the whole model system of four delay differential equations can be obtained with the observation that a scalar subsystem for the adult stage size can be decoupled. The challenge for the proof of such a global stability result can be overcome by introducing a new phase space, based on which, a periodic solution semiflow can be defined which is eventually strongly monotone and strictly subhomogeneous.

[The dynamics of heath indicators of population of industrial town].

PubMed

Kalinkin, D E; Karpov, A B; Takhauov, R M; Samoĭlova, Iu A

2013-01-01

The article presents the results of analysis of dynamics of health indicators of population of industrial town (medical demographic indicators, disability, morbidity of social hygienically important diseases) during 1970-2010. The classified administrative territorial municipality of Seversk constructed near the Siberian chemical industrial center, the internationally first-rate complex of nuclear industry enterprises was used as a research base. It is demonstrated that dynamics of health indicators of studied population had such negative tendencies as rapid population ageing, population loss due to decrease of natality and increase of mortality (population of able-bodied age included), prevalence of cardio-vascular diseases, malignant neoplasms and external causes, chronization of diseases. The established tendencies are to be considered in management decision making targeted to support and promote population health in industrial towns.

Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

Treesearch

M.E. and D.C. Lee Borsuk

2009-01-01

The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

Effects of resource quality on the population dynamics of the Indian meal moth Plodia interpunctella and its granulovirus.

PubMed

McVean, Ross I; Sait, Steve M; Thompson, David J; Begon, Mike

2002-03-01

Although the Plodia interpunctella-granulovirus system is one of the most studied models for insect-pathogen interactions, there are relatively few precise data on the dynamics of the virus in coexisting populations of these two organisms. Previous work has suggested that resource quality, in terms of the diet supplied to P. interpunctella, has a strong effect on the population dynamics of host and pathogen. Here we investigate the impact of resource-dependent host patterns of abundance on pathogen dynamics and prevalence. In the laboratory, three populations of P. interpunctella feeding on a good quality food and infected with a granulovirus were compared with three populations also infected with a granulovirus but feeding on poor quality food. Populations feeding on good quality food produced larger adult moths, and had greater numbers of adult moths, healthy larvae, and virus-infected larvae. A higher proportion of larvae in these good quality populations were infected with virus, and adult moths exhibited cyclic fluctuations in abundance, unlike those on poor quality food. This cyclic behaviour was shown to be associated with cycles in the age structure of the larval population. Previous theoretical work suggests that these cycles may result from asymmetric competition between young and old larvae. Cyclic fluctuations in the proportion of infected larvae, that occurred on good, but not on poor quality food, were also shown to be related to cycles in the age structure of the larval population.

Allee’s dynamics and bifurcation structures in von Bertalanffy’s population size functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonel Rocha, J.; Taha, Abdel-Kaddous; Fournier-Prunaret, D.

2018-03-01

The interest and the relevance of the study of the population dynamics and the extinction phenomenon are our main motivation to investigate the induction of Allee Effect in von Bertalanffy’s population size functions. The adjustment or correction factor of rational type introduced allows us to analyze simultaneously strong and weak Allee’s functions and functions with no Allee effect, whose classification is dependent on the stability of the fixed point x = 0. This classification is founded on the concepts of strong and weak Allee’s effects to the population growth rates associated. The transition from strong Allee effect to no Allee effect, passing through the weak Allee effect, is verified with the evolution of the rarefaction critical density or Allee’s limit. The existence of cusp points on a fold bifurcation curve is related to this phenomenon of transition on Allee’s dynamics. Moreover, the “foliated” structure of the parameter plane considered is also explained, with respect to the evolution of the Allee limit. The bifurcation analysis is based on the configurations of fold and flip bifurcation curves. The chaotic semistability and the nonadmissibility bifurcation curves are proposed to this family of 1D maps, which allow us to define and characterize the corresponding Allee effect region.

China: Awakening Giant Developing Solutions to Population Aging

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Ning Jackie; Guo, Man; Zheng, Xiaoying

2012-01-01

As the world's most populous country with the largest aging population and a rapidly growing economy, China is receiving increased attention from both the Chinese government and the governments of other countries that face low fertility and aging problems. This unprecedented shift of demographic structure has repercussions for many aspects of…

Age structure and age-related performance of sulfur cinquefoil (Potentilla recta).

Treesearch

Dana L. Perkins; Catherine G. Parks; Kathleen A. Dwire; Bryan A. Endress; Kelsi L. Johnson

2006-01-01

Age distributions of sulfur cinquefoil populations were determined on sites that were historically grazed, cultivated, and mechanically disturbed. From 12 sites, a total of 279 reproductively active plants were collected and aged by using herbchronology (counting rings in the secondary root xylem of the root crown) to (1) estimate the age structure of the populations...

Aging in Mexico: Population Trends and Emerging Issues

PubMed Central

Vega, William; López-Ortega, Mariana

2017-01-01

Abstract Although all nations in the America’s face a common demographic reality of longevity, declining fertility rates and changes in family roles a growing body of research points to a dramatic demographic transformation in Mexico. Although Mexico’s population is relatively young, with a median age of 27.9 in 2015, it will age rapidly in coming years, increasing to 42 years by 2050. The rapid median age in the nation also reflects the growing proportion of people 65 or older, and is expected to triple to 20.2% by 2050. This article examines how the age and gender structure of Mexico offers important insights about current and future political and social stability, as well as economic development. Mexico is the world’s eleventh largest country in terms of population size and the “demographic dividend” of a large youthful population is giving way to a growing older population that will inevitably place demands on health care and social security. The shift in age structure will result in increased dependency of retirees on the working-age population in the next 20 years. Mexico does not provide universal coverage of social security benefits and less than half of the labor force is covered by any pension or retirement plan. As a result, elderly Mexicans often continue working into old age. The high total poverty rate in the country, especially among the older population magnifies the problem of the potential dependency burden. The article ends with a discussion of key public policy issues related to aging in Mexico. PMID:27927730

[An adjustment to the age structure of the Italian population in the 1971 census].

PubMed

Caselli, G; Golini, A; Capocaccia, R

1989-01-01

"Having verified, in the 1971 [Italian] census, the presence of certain anomalous data for cohorts born in 1900, 1911, 1920, 1924, 1930, 1936, 1940, 1948, 1950 and 1960, we assessed the size of the error and estimated the new population total which emerged both by age and year of birth. The method used [is similar] to more classical methods to correct biases in age structure in previous censuses and in those countries where the data available are somewhat lacking. The adjusted values, referring to Italy as a whole, are contained in the text...." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE) excerpt

Threshold Dynamics of a Temperature-Dependent Stage-Structured Mosquito Population Model with Nested Delays.

PubMed

Wang, Xiunan; Zou, Xingfu

2018-05-21

Mosquito-borne diseases remain a significant threat to public health and economics. Since mosquitoes are quite sensitive to temperature, global warming may not only worsen the disease transmission case in current endemic areas but also facilitate mosquito population together with pathogens to establish in new regions. Therefore, understanding mosquito population dynamics under the impact of temperature is considerably important for making disease control policies. In this paper, we develop a stage-structured mosquito population model in the environment of a temperature-controlled experiment. The model turns out to be a system of periodic delay differential equations with periodic delays. We show that the basic reproduction number is a threshold parameter which determines whether the mosquito population goes to extinction or remains persistent. We then estimate the parameter values for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits dengue virus. We verify the analytic result by numerical simulations with the temperature data of Colombo, Sri Lanka where a dengue outbreak occurred in 2017.

Bridging the Timescales of Single-Cell and Population Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jafarpour, Farshid; Wright, Charles S.; Gudjonson, Herman; Riebling, Jedidiah; Dawson, Emma; Lo, Klevin; Fiebig, Aretha; Crosson, Sean; Dinner, Aaron R.; Iyer-Biswas, Srividya

2018-04-01

How are granular details of stochastic growth and division of individual cells reflected in smooth deterministic growth of population numbers? We provide an integrated, multiscale perspective of microbial growth dynamics by formulating a data-validated theoretical framework that accounts for observables at both single-cell and population scales. We derive exact analytical complete time-dependent solutions to cell-age distributions and population growth rates as functionals of the underlying interdivision time distributions, for symmetric and asymmetric cell division. These results provide insights into the surprising implications of stochastic single-cell dynamics for population growth. Using our results for asymmetric division, we deduce the time to transition from the reproductively quiescent (swarmer) to the replication-competent (stalked) stage of the Caulobacter crescentus life cycle. Remarkably, population numbers can spontaneously oscillate with time. We elucidate the physics leading to these population oscillations. For C. crescentus cells, we show that a simple measurement of the population growth rate, for a given growth condition, is sufficient to characterize the condition-specific cellular unit of time and, thus, yields the mean (single-cell) growth and division timescales, fluctuations in cell division times, the cell-age distribution, and the quiescence timescale.

Structure and dynamics of Andromeda's stellar disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorman, Claire Elise

2015-10-01

Lambda cold dark matter (LambdaCDM) cosmology predicts that the disks of Milky Way-mass galaxies should have undergone at least one merger with a large (mass ratio 1:10) satellite in the last several Gyr. However, the stellar disk in the solar neighborhood of the Milky Way is too thin and dynamically cold to have experienced such an impact. The dynamics of the nearby Andromeda galaxy can serve as a second data point, and help us understand whether the Milky Way may simply have had an unusually quiescent merger history, or whether LambdaCDM theory needs to be revisited. Over the last few years, we have carried out a detailed study of the resolved stellar populations in the disk of the Andromeda galaxy using data from two surveys: six-filter Hubble Space Telescope photometry from the recently-completed Panchromatic Hubble Andromeda Treasury (PHAT) survey, and radial velocities derived from Keck/DEIMOS optical spectra obtained as part of the Spectroscopic and Photometric Landscape of Andromeda's Stellar 0Halo (SPLASH) program. These detailed, multidimensional data sets allow us to decouple the structural subcomponents and characterize them individually. We find that an old, dynamically hot (velocity dispersion 150 km/s) RGB population extends out to 20 kpc (the edge of the visible disk) but has a disk-like surface brightness profile and luminosity function. This population may have originated in the disk but been kicked out subsequently in impacts with satellite galaxies. We also study the kinematics of the disk as a function of the age of stellar tracers, and find a direct correlation between age and velocity dispersion, indicating that Andromeda has undergone a continuous heating or disk settling process throughout its lifetime. Overall, both the velocity dispersion of Andromeda's disk and the slope of the velocity dispersion vs. stellar age curve are several times those of the Milky Way's, suggesting a more active merger history more in line with Lambda

Aging in Mexico: Population Trends and Emerging Issues.

PubMed

Angel, Jacqueline L; Vega, William; López-Ortega, Mariana

2016-12-07

Although all nations in the America's face a common demographic reality of longevity, declining fertility rates and changes in family roles a growing body of research points to a dramatic demographic transformation in Mexico. Although Mexico's population is relatively young, with a median age of 27.9 in 2015, it will age rapidly in coming years, increasing to 42 years by 2050. The rapid median age in the nation also reflects the growing proportion of people 65 or older, and is expected to triple to 20.2% by 2050. This article examines how the age and gender structure of Mexico offers important insights about current and future political and social stability, as well as economic development. Mexico is the world's eleventh largest country in terms of population size and the "demographic dividend" of a large youthful population is giving way to a growing older population that will inevitably place demands on health care and social security. The shift in age structure will result in increased dependency of retirees on the working-age population in the next 20 years. Mexico does not provide universal coverage of social security benefits and less than half of the labor force is covered by any pension or retirement plan. As a result, elderly Mexicans often continue working into old age. The high total poverty rate in the country, especially among the older population magnifies the problem of the potential dependency burden. The article ends with a discussion of key public policy issues related to aging in Mexico. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Evolution of a plastic quantitative trait in an age-structured population in a fluctuating environment.

PubMed

Engen, Steinar; Lande, Russell; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-10-01

We analyze weak fluctuating selection on a quantitative character in an age-structured population not subject to density regulation. We assume that early in the first year of life before selection, during a critical state of development, environments exert a plastic effect on the phenotype, which remains constant throughout the life of an individual. Age-specific selection on the character affects survival and fecundity, which have intermediate optima subject to temporal environmental fluctuations with directional selection in some age classes as special cases. Weighting individuals by their reproductive value, as suggested by Fisher, we show that the expected response per year in the weighted mean character has the same form as for models with no age structure. Environmental stochasticity generates stochastic fluctuations in the weighted mean character following a first-order autoregressive model with a temporally autocorrelated noise term and stationary variance depending on the amount of phenotypic plasticity. The parameters of the process are simple weighted averages of parameters used to describe age-specific survival and fecundity. The "age-specific selective weights" are related to the stable distribution of reproductive values among age classes. This allows partitioning of the change in the weighted mean character into age-specific components. © 2011 The Author(s). Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Dynamic network communication as a unifying neural basis for cognition, development, aging, and disease.

PubMed

Voytek, Bradley; Knight, Robert T

2015-06-15

Perception, cognition, and social interaction depend upon coordinated neural activity. This coordination operates within noisy, overlapping, and distributed neural networks operating at multiple timescales. These networks are built upon a structural scaffolding with intrinsic neuroplasticity that changes with development, aging, disease, and personal experience. In this article, we begin from the perspective that successful interregional communication relies upon the transient synchronization between distinct low-frequency (<80 Hz) oscillations, allowing for brief windows of communication via phase-coordinated local neuronal spiking. From this, we construct a theoretical framework for dynamic network communication, arguing that these networks reflect a balance between oscillatory coupling and local population spiking activity and that these two levels of activity interact. We theorize that when oscillatory coupling is too strong, spike timing within the local neuronal population becomes too synchronous; when oscillatory coupling is too weak, spike timing is too disorganized. Each results in specific disruptions to neural communication. These alterations in communication dynamics may underlie cognitive changes associated with healthy development and aging, in addition to neurological and psychiatric disorders. A number of neurological and psychiatric disorders-including Parkinson's disease, autism, depression, schizophrenia, and anxiety-are associated with abnormalities in oscillatory activity. Although aging, psychiatric and neurological disease, and experience differ in the biological changes to structural gray or white matter, neurotransmission, and gene expression, our framework suggests that any resultant cognitive and behavioral changes in normal or disordered states or their treatment are a product of how these physical processes affect dynamic network communication. Copyright © 2015 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

Uncovering the transmission dynamics of Plasmodium vivax using population genetics

PubMed Central

Barry, Alyssa E.; Waltmann, Andreea; Koepfli, Cristian; Barnadas, Celine; Mueller, Ivo

2015-01-01

Population genetic analysis of malaria parasites has the power to reveal key insights into malaria epidemiology and transmission dynamics with the potential to deliver tools to support control and elimination efforts. Analyses of parasite genetic diversity have suggested that Plasmodium vivax populations are more genetically diverse and less structured than those of Plasmodium falciparum indicating that P. vivax may be a more ancient parasite of humans and/or less susceptible to population bottlenecks, as well as more efficient at disseminating its genes. These population genetic insights into P. vivax transmission dynamics provide an explanation for its relative resilience to control efforts. Here, we describe current knowledge on P. vivax population genetic structure, its relevance to understanding transmission patterns and relapse and how this information can inform malaria control and elimination programmes. PMID:25891915

Population Biology of Intestinal Enterococcus Isolates from Hospitalized and Nonhospitalized Individuals in Different Age Groups

PubMed Central

Tedim, Ana P.; Ruiz-Garbajosa, Patricia; Corander, Jukka; Rodríguez, Concepción M.; Cantón, Rafael; Willems, Rob J.; Baquero, Fernando

2014-01-01

The diversity of enterococcal populations from fecal samples from hospitalized (n = 133) and nonhospitalized individuals (n = 173) of different age groups (group I, ages 0 to 19 years; group II, ages 20 to 59 years; group III, ages ≥60 years) was analyzed. Enterococci were recovered at similar rates from hospitalized and nonhospitalized persons (77.44% to 79.77%) of all age groups (75.0% to 82.61%). Enterococcus faecalis and Enterococcus faecium were predominant, although seven other Enterococcus species were identified. E. faecalis and E. faecium (including ampicillin-resistant E. faecium) colonization rates in nonhospitalized persons were age independent. For inpatients, E. faecalis colonization rates were age independent, but E. faecium colonization rates (particularly the rates of ampicillin-resistant E. faecium colonization) significantly increased with age. The population structure of E. faecium and E. faecalis was determined by superimposing goeBURST and Bayesian analysis of the population structure (BAPS). Most E. faecium sequence types (STs; 150 isolates belonging to 75 STs) were linked to BAPS groups 1 (22.0%), 2 (31.3%), and 3 (36.7%). A positive association between hospital isolates and BAPS subgroups 2.1a and 3.3a (which included major ampicillin-resistant E. faecium human lineages) and between community-based ampicillin-resistant E. faecium isolates and BAPS subgroups 1.2 and 3.3b was found. Most E. faecalis isolates (130 isolates belonging to 58 STs) were grouped into 3 BAPS groups, BAPS groups 1 (36.9%), 2 (40.0%), and 3 (23.1%), with each one comprising widespread lineages. No positive associations with age or hospitalization were established. The diversity and dynamics of enterococcal populations in the fecal microbiota of healthy humans are largely unexplored, with the available knowledge being fragmented and contradictory. The study offers a novel and comprehensive analysis of enterococcal population landscapes and suggests that E. faecium

A structured population model with diffusion in structure space.

PubMed

Pugliese, Andrea; Milner, Fabio

2018-05-09

A structured population model is described and analyzed, in which individual dynamics is stochastic. The model consists of a PDE of advection-diffusion type in the structure variable. The population may represent, for example, the density of infected individuals structured by pathogen density x, [Formula: see text]. The individuals with density [Formula: see text] are not infected, but rather susceptible or recovered. Their dynamics is described by an ODE with a source term that is the exact flux from the diffusion and advection as [Formula: see text]. Infection/reinfection is then modeled moving a fraction of these individuals into the infected class by distributing them in the structure variable through a probability density function. Existence of a global-in-time solution is proven, as well as a classical bifurcation result about equilibrium solutions: a net reproduction number [Formula: see text] is defined that separates the case of only the trivial equilibrium existing when [Formula: see text] from the existence of another-nontrivial-equilibrium when [Formula: see text]. Numerical simulation results are provided to show the stabilization towards the positive equilibrium when [Formula: see text] and towards the trivial one when [Formula: see text], result that is not proven analytically. Simulations are also provided to show the Allee effect that helps boost population sizes at low densities.

Spatio-temporal variations in age structures of a partially re-established population of northern river otters (Lontra canadensis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barrett, Dominic A.; Leslie, David M.

2012-01-01

Examination of age structures and sex ratios is useful in the management of northern river otters (Lontra canadensis) and other furbearers. Reintroductions and subsequent recolonizations of river otters have been well documented, but changes in demographics between expanding and established populations have not been observed. As a result of reintroduction efforts, immigration from Arkansas and northeastern Texas, and other efforts, river otters have become partially reestablished throughout eastern and central Oklahoma. Our objective was to examine age structures of river otters in Oklahoma and identify trends that relate to space (watersheds, county) and time (USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service county trapping records). We predicted that river otters in western areas of the state were younger than river otters occurring farther east. From 2005–2007, we obtained salvaged river otter carcasses from federal and state agencies, and we live-captured other river otters using leg hold traps. Seventy-two river otters were sampled. Overall, sex ratios were skewed toward females (1F∶0.8M), but they did not differ among spatiotemporal scales examined. Teeth were removed from salvaged and live-captured river otters (n  =  63) for aging. One-year old river otters represented the largest age class (30.2%). Proportion of juveniles (<1 y old) in Oklahoma (19.0%) was less than other states. Mean age of river otters decreased from east-to-west in the Arkansas River and its tributaries. Mean age of river otters differed between the Canadian River Watershed (0.8 y) and the Arkansas River Watershed (2.9 y) and the Canadian River Watershed and the Red River Watershed (2.4 y). Proportion of juveniles did not differ among spatiotemporal scales examined. Similar to age structure variations in other mammalian carnivores, colonizing or growing western populations of river otters in Oklahoma contained younger ages than more established eastern populations.

An age-structured extension to the vectorial capacity model.

PubMed

Novoseltsev, Vasiliy N; Michalski, Anatoli I; Novoseltseva, Janna A; Yashin, Anatoliy I; Carey, James R; Ellis, Alicia M

2012-01-01

Vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number (R(0)) have been instrumental in structuring thinking about vector-borne pathogen transmission and how best to prevent the diseases they cause. One of the more important simplifying assumptions of these models is age-independent vector mortality. A growing body of evidence indicates that insect vectors exhibit age-dependent mortality, which can have strong and varied affects on pathogen transmission dynamics and strategies for disease prevention. Based on survival analysis we derived new equations for vectorial capacity and R(0) that are valid for any pattern of age-dependent (or age-independent) vector mortality and explore the behavior of the models across various mortality patterns. The framework we present (1) lays the groundwork for an extension and refinement of the vectorial capacity paradigm by introducing an age-structured extension to the model, (2) encourages further research on the actuarial dynamics of vectors in particular and the relationship of vector mortality to pathogen transmission in general, and (3) provides a detailed quantitative basis for understanding the relative impact of reductions in vector longevity compared to other vector-borne disease prevention strategies. Accounting for age-dependent vector mortality in estimates of vectorial capacity and R(0) was most important when (1) vector densities are relatively low and the pattern of mortality can determine whether pathogen transmission will persist; i.e., determines whether R(0) is above or below 1, (2) vector population growth rate is relatively low and there are complex interactions between birth and death that differ fundamentally from birth-death relationships with age-independent mortality, and (3) the vector exhibits complex patterns of age-dependent mortality and R(0) ∼ 1. A limiting factor in the construction and evaluation of new age-dependent mortality models is the paucity of data characterizing vector mortality patterns

Probabilistic population aging

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

We merge two methodologies, prospective measures of population aging and probabilistic population forecasts. We compare the speed of change and variability in forecasts of the old age dependency ratio and the prospective old age dependency ratio as well as the same comparison for the median age and the prospective median age. While conventional measures of population aging are computed on the basis of the number of years people have already lived, prospective measures are computed also taking account of the expected number of years they have left to live. Those remaining life expectancies change over time and differ from place to place. We compare the probabilistic distributions of the conventional and prospective measures using examples from China, Germany, Iran, and the United States. The changes over time and the variability of the prospective indicators are smaller than those that are observed in the conventional ones. A wide variety of new results emerge from the combination of methodologies. For example, for Germany, Iran, and the United States the likelihood that the prospective median age of the population in 2098 will be lower than it is today is close to 100 percent. PMID:28636675

Unveiling the structural arrangements responsible for the atomic dynamics in metallic glasses during physical aging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giordano, V. M.; Ruta, B.

2016-01-01

Understanding and controlling physical aging, that is, the spontaneous temporal evolution of out-of-equilibrium systems, represents one of the greatest tasks in material science. Recent studies have revealed the existence of a complex atomic motion in metallic glasses, with different aging regimes in contrast with the typical continuous aging observed in macroscopic quantities. By combining dynamical and structural synchrotron techniques, here for the first time we directly connect previously identified microscopic structural mechanisms with the peculiar atomic motion, providing a broader unique view of their complexity. We show that the atomic scale is dominated by the interplay between two processes: rearrangements releasing residual stresses related to a cascade mechanism of relaxation, and medium range ordering processes, which do not affect the local density, likely due to localized relaxations of liquid-like regions. As temperature increases, a surprising additional secondary relaxation process sets in, together with a faster medium range ordering, likely precursors of crystallization.

How Social Structure Drives the Population Dynamics of the Common Vampire Bat (Desmodus rotundus, Phyllostomidae).

PubMed

Huguin, Maïlis; Arechiga-Ceballos, Nidia; Delaval, Marguerite; Guidez, Amandine; de Castro, Isaï Jorge; Lacoste, Vincent; Salmier, Arielle; Setién, Alvaro Aguilar; Silva, Claudia Regina; Lavergne, Anne; de Thoisy, Benoit

2018-05-11

Social systems are major drivers of population structure and gene flow, with important effects on dynamics and dispersal of associated populations of parasites. Among bats, the common vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus) has likely one of the most complex social structures. Using autosomal and mitochondrial markers on vampires from Mexico, French Guiana, and North Brazil, from both roosting and foraging areas, we observed an isolation by distance at the wider scale and lower but significant differentiation between closer populations (<50 km). All populations had a low level of relatedness and showed deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and a low but significant inbreeding coefficient. The associated heterozygote deficiency was likely related to a Wahlund effect and to cryptic structures, reflecting social groups living in syntopy, both in roosting and foraging areas, with only limited admixture. Discrepancy between mitochondrial and nuclear markers suggests female philopatry and higher dispersal rates in males, associated with peripheral positions in the groups. Vampires are also the main neotropical reservoir for rabies virus, one of the main lethal pathogens for humans. Female social behaviors and trophallaxis may favor a rapid spread of virus to related and unrelated offspring and females. The high dispersal capacity of males may explain the wider circulation of viruses and the inefficacy of bat population controls. In such opportunistic species, gene connectivity should be considered for management decision making. Strategies such as culling could induce immigration of bats from neighboring colonies to fill vacant roosts and feeding areas, associated with the dispersal of viral strains.

Evolutionary dynamics of social dilemmas in structured heterogeneous populations.

PubMed

Santos, F C; Pacheco, J M; Lenaerts, Tom

2006-02-28

Real populations have been shown to be heterogeneous, in which some individuals have many more contacts than others. This fact contrasts with the traditional homogeneous setting used in studies of evolutionary game dynamics. We incorporate heterogeneity in the population by studying games on graphs, in which the variability in connectivity ranges from single-scale graphs, for which heterogeneity is small and associated degree distributions exhibit a Gaussian tale, to scale-free graphs, for which heterogeneity is large with degree distributions exhibiting a power-law behavior. We study the evolution of cooperation, modeled in terms of the most popular dilemmas of cooperation. We show that, for all dilemmas, increasing heterogeneity favors the emergence of cooperation, such that long-term cooperative behavior easily resists short-term noncooperative behavior. Moreover, we show how cooperation depends on the intricate ties between individuals in scale-free populations.

Cooperation guided by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Kuangyi; Li, Kun; Cong, Rui; Wang, Long

2017-02-01

In the framework of the evolutionary game theory, two fundamentally different mechanisms, the imitation process and the aspiration-driven dynamics, can be adopted by players to update their strategies. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer, while in the latter case individuals change their strategies based on a comparison of payoffs they collect in the game to their own aspiration levels. Here we explore how cooperation evolves for the coexistence of these two dynamics. Intriguingly, cooperation reaches its lowest level when a certain moderate fraction of individuals pick aspiration-level-driven rule while the others choose pairwise comparison rule. Furthermore, when individuals can adjust their update rules besides their strategies, either imitation dynamics or aspiration-driven dynamics will finally take over the entire population, and the stationary cooperation level is determined by the outcome of competition between these two dynamics. We find that appropriate synergetic effects and moderate aspiration level boost the fixation probability of aspiration-driven dynamics most effectively. Our work may be helpful in understanding the cooperative behavior induced by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in the society.

Predator-prey-subsidy population dynamics on stepping-stone domains.

PubMed

Shen, Lulan; Van Gorder, Robert A

2017-05-07

Predator-prey-subsidy dynamics on stepping-stone domains are examined using a variety of network configurations. Our problem is motivated by the interactions between arctic foxes (predator) and lemmings (prey) in the presence of seal carrion (subsidy) provided by polar bears. We use the n-Patch Model, which considers space explicitly as a "Stepping Stone" system. We consider the role that the carrying capacity, predator migration rate, input subsidy rate, predator mortality rate, and proportion of predators surviving migration play in the predator-prey-subsidy population dynamics. We find that for certain types of networks, added mobility will help predator populations, allowing them to survive or coexist when they would otherwise go extinct if confined to one location, while in other situations (such as when sparsely distributed nodes in the network have few resources available) the added mobility will hurt the predator population. We also find that a combination of favourable conditions for the prey and subsidy can lead to the formation of limit cycles (boom and bust dynamic) from stable equilibrium states. These modifications to the dynamics vary depending on the specific network structure employed, highlighting the fact that network structure can strongly influence the predator-prey-subsidy dynamics in stepping-stone domains. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards a Population Dynamics Theory for Evolutionary Computing: Learning from Biological Population Dynamics in Nature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Zhanshan (Sam)

In evolutionary computing (EC), population size is one of the critical parameters that a researcher has to deal with. Hence, it was no surprise that the pioneers of EC, such as De Jong (1975) and Holland (1975), had already studied the population sizing from the very beginning of EC. What is perhaps surprising is that more than three decades later, we still largely depend on the experience or ad-hoc trial-and-error approach to set the population size. For example, in a recent monograph, Eiben and Smith (2003) indicated: "In almost all EC applications, the population size is constant and does not change during the evolutionary search." Despite enormous research on this issue in recent years, we still lack a well accepted theory for population sizing. In this paper, I propose to develop a population dynamics theory forEC with the inspiration from the population dynamics theory of biological populations in nature. Essentially, the EC population is considered as a dynamic system over time (generations) and space (search space or fitness landscape), similar to the spatial and temporal dynamics of biological populations in nature. With this conceptual mapping, I propose to 'transplant' the biological population dynamics theory to EC via three steps: (i) experimentally test the feasibility—whether or not emulating natural population dynamics improves the EC performance; (ii) comparatively study the underlying mechanisms—why there are improvements, primarily via statistical modeling analysis; (iii) conduct theoretical analysis with theoretical models such as percolation theory and extended evolutionary game theory that are generally applicable to both EC and natural populations. This article is a summary of a series of studies we have performed to achieve the general goal [27][30]-[32]. In the following, I start with an extremely brief introduction on the theory and models of natural population dynamics (Sections 1 & 2). In Sections 4 to 6, I briefly discuss three

The development of pathogen resistance in Daphnia magna: implications for disease spread in age-structured populations.

PubMed

Garbutt, Jennie S; O'Donoghue, Anna J P; McTaggart, Seanna J; Wilson, Philip J; Little, Tom J

2014-11-01

Immunity in vertebrates is well established to develop with time, but the ontogeny of defence in invertebrates is markedly less studied. Yet, age-specific capacity for defence against pathogens, coupled with age structure in populations, has widespread implications for disease spread. Thus, we sought to determine the susceptibility of hosts of different ages in an experimental invertebrate host-pathogen system. In a series of experiments, we show that the ability of Daphnia magna to resist its natural bacterial pathogen Pasteuria ramosa changes with host age. Clonal differences make it difficult to draw general conclusions, but the majority of observations indicate that resistance increases early in the life of D. magna, consistent with the idea that the defence system develops with time. Immediately following this, at about the time when a daphnid would be most heavily investing in reproduction, resistance tends to decline. Because many ecological factors influence the age structure of Daphnia populations, our results highlight a broad mechanism by which ecological context can affect disease epidemiology. We also show that a previously observed protective effect of restricted maternal food persists throughout the entire juvenile period, and that the protective effect of prior treatment with a small dose of the pathogen ('priming') persists for 7 days, observations that reinforce the idea that immunity in D. magna can change over time. Together, our experiments lead us to conclude that invertebrate defence capabilities have an ontogeny that merits consideration with respect to both their immune systems and the epidemic spread of infection. © 2014. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

The development of pathogen resistance in Daphnia magna: implications for disease spread in age-structured populations

PubMed Central

Garbutt, Jennie S.; O'Donoghue, Anna J. P.; McTaggart, Seanna J.; Wilson, Philip J.; Little, Tom J.

2014-01-01

Immunity in vertebrates is well established to develop with time, but the ontogeny of defence in invertebrates is markedly less studied. Yet, age-specific capacity for defence against pathogens, coupled with age structure in populations, has widespread implications for disease spread. Thus, we sought to determine the susceptibility of hosts of different ages in an experimental invertebrate host–pathogen system. In a series of experiments, we show that the ability of Daphnia magna to resist its natural bacterial pathogen Pasteuria ramosa changes with host age. Clonal differences make it difficult to draw general conclusions, but the majority of observations indicate that resistance increases early in the life of D. magna, consistent with the idea that the defence system develops with time. Immediately following this, at about the time when a daphnid would be most heavily investing in reproduction, resistance tends to decline. Because many ecological factors influence the age structure of Daphnia populations, our results highlight a broad mechanism by which ecological context can affect disease epidemiology. We also show that a previously observed protective effect of restricted maternal food persists throughout the entire juvenile period, and that the protective effect of prior treatment with a small dose of the pathogen (‘priming’) persists for 7 days, observations that reinforce the idea that immunity in D. magna can change over time. Together, our experiments lead us to conclude that invertebrate defence capabilities have an ontogeny that merits consideration with respect to both their immune systems and the epidemic spread of infection. PMID:25214486

Neighborhood Age Structure and its Implications for Health

PubMed Central

2006-01-01

Age structure at the neighborhood level is rarely considered in contextual studies of health. However, age structure can play a critical role in shaping community life, the availability of resources, and the opportunities for social engagement—all factors that, research suggests, have direct and indirect effects on health. Age structure can be theorized as a compositional effect and as a contextual effect. In addition, the dynamic nature of age structure and the utility of a life course perspective as applied to neighborhood effects research merits attention. Four Chicago neighborhoods are summarized to illustrate how age structure varies across small space, suggesting that neighborhood age structure should be considered a key structural covariate in contextual research on health. Considering age structure implies incorporating not only meaningful cut points for important age groups (e.g., proportion 65 years and over) but attention to the shape of the distribution as well. PMID:16865558

The effect of seasonal harvesting on stage-structured population models.

PubMed

Tang, Sanyi; Chen, Lansun

2004-04-01

In most models of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-independent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. We propose an exploited single-species model with stage structure for the dynamics in a fish population for which births occur in a single pulse once per time period. Since birth pulse populations are often characterized with a discrete time dynamical system determined by its Poincaré map, we explore the consequences of harvest timing to equilibrium population sizes under seasonal dependence and obtain threshold conditions for their stability, and show that the timing of harvesting has a strong impact on the persistence of the fish population, on the volume of mature fish stock and on the maximum annual-sustainable yield. Moreover, our results imply that the population can sustain much higher harvest rates if the mature fish is removed as early in the season (after the birth pulse) as possible. Further, the effects of harvesting effort and harvest timing on the dynamical complexity are also investigated. Bifurcation diagrams are constructed with the birth rate (or harvesting effort or harvest timing) as the bifurcation parameter, and these are observed to display rich structure, including chaotic bands with periodic windows, pitch-fork and tangent bifurcations, non-unique dynamics (meaning that several attractors coexist) and attractor crisis. This suggests that birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that makes the dynamical behavior more complex.

The Growth of Older Inmate Populations: How Population Aging Explains Rising Age at Admission.

PubMed

Luallen, Jeremy; Cutler, Christopher

2017-09-01

Older inmates are the fastest growing segment of the prison population; however, the reasons for this are not well understood. One explanation is that the general population is aging, driving prison age distributions to change. For this article, we study the role of population aging in prison growth by investigating how the baby boom phenomenon of post-World War II has contributed to the growth of older inmate populations. We identify the impact of population aging using simulation methods that explain prison growth as the combination of criminal justice processes. Overall, we find evidence that population aging has played a significant role in explaining the growth of older inmate populations, in particular among inmates aged between 50 and 64 years, contributing to as much as half of the observed increase in these groups since 2000. This finding stands in contrast to the notion that population aging has little explanatory power in describing the growth of prison populations and implies that older inmate groups are more sensitive to compositional changes in the general population. We argue that prediction-based modeling of prison growth should more seriously consider the impacts and consequences of demographic shifts among older prisoner populations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The role of population inertia in predicting the outcome of stage-structured biological invasions.

PubMed

Guiver, Chris; Dreiwi, Hanan; Filannino, Donna-Maria; Hodgson, Dave; Lloyd, Stephanie; Townley, Stuart

2015-07-01

Deterministic dynamic models for coupled resident and invader populations are considered with the purpose of finding quantities that are effective at predicting when the invasive population will become established asymptotically. A key feature of the models considered is the stage-structure, meaning that the populations are described by vectors of discrete developmental stage- or age-classes. The vector structure permits exotic transient behaviour-phenomena not encountered in scalar models. Analysis using a linear Lyapunov function demonstrates that for the class of population models considered, a large so-called population inertia is indicative of successful invasion. Population inertia is an indicator of transient growth or decline. Furthermore, for the class of models considered, we find that the so-called invasion exponent, an existing index used in models for invasion, is not always a reliable comparative indicator of successful invasion. We highlight these findings through numerical examples and a biological interpretation of why this might be the case is discussed. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Spatial and temporal synchrony in reptile population dynamics in variable environments.

PubMed

Greenville, Aaron C; Wardle, Glenda M; Nguyen, Vuong; Dickman, Chris R

2016-10-01

Resources are seldom distributed equally across space, but many species exhibit spatially synchronous population dynamics. Such synchrony suggests the operation of large-scale external drivers, such as rainfall or wildfire, or the influence of oasis sites that provide water, shelter, or other resources. However, testing the generality of these factors is not easy, especially in variable environments. Using a long-term dataset (13-22 years) from a large (8000 km(2)) study region in arid Central Australia, we tested firstly for regional synchrony in annual rainfall and the dynamics of six reptile species across nine widely separated sites. For species that showed synchronous spatial dynamics, we then used multivariate follow a multivariate auto-regressive state-space (MARSS) models to predict that regional rainfall would be positively associated with their populations. For asynchronous species, we used MARSS models to explore four other possible population structures: (1) populations were asynchronous, (2) differed between oasis and non-oasis sites, (3) differed between burnt and unburnt sites, or (4) differed between three sub-regions with different rainfall gradients. Only one species showed evidence of spatial population synchrony and our results provide little evidence that rainfall synchronizes reptile populations. The oasis or the wildfire hypotheses were the best-fitting models for the other five species. Thus, our six study species appear generally to be structured in space into one or two populations across the study region. Our findings suggest that for arid-dwelling reptile populations, spatial and temporal dynamics are structured by abiotic events, but individual responses to covariates at smaller spatial scales are complex and poorly understood.

The age structure of selected countries in the ESCAP region.

PubMed

Hong, S

1982-01-01

The study objective was to examine the age structure of selected countries in the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) region, using available data and frequently applied indices such as the population pyramid, aged-child ratio, and median age. Based on the overall picture of the age structure thus obtained, age trends and their implication for the near future were arrived at. Countries are grouped into 4 types based on the fertility and mortality levels. Except for Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, the age structure in the 18 ESCAP region countries changed comparatively little over the 1950-80 period. The largest structural change occurred in Singapore, where the proportion of children under age 15 in the population declined significantly from 41-27%, while that of persons 65 years and older more than doubled. This was due primarily to the marked decline in fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 6.7-1.8 during the period. Hong Kong also had a similar major transformation during the same period: the proportion of the old age population increased 2 1/2 times, from 2.5-6.3%. The age structures of the 18 ESCAP countries varied greatly by country. 10 countries of the 2 high fertility and mortality types showed a similar young age structural pattern, i.e., they have higher dependency ratios, a higher proportion of children under 15 years, a lower proportion of population 65 years and older, lower aged-child ratios, and younger median ages than the average countries in the less developed regions of the world. With minimal changes over the 1950-80 period, the gap between these countries and the average of the less developed regions widened. Unlike these 10 (mostly South Asian) countries, moderately low fertility and mortality countries (China, Korea, and Sri Lanka) are located between the world average and the less developed region in most of the indices, particularly during the last decade. Although their rate of population aging is not

Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David A.; Clark, W.R.; Arnold, S.J.; Bronikowski, A.M.

2011-01-01

Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (??s) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on ?? s. The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on ??s was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on ??s was 4- 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life

Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

PubMed

Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

2011-08-01

Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of

Rapid evolution leads to differential population dynamics and top-down control in resurrected Daphnia populations.

PubMed

Goitom, Eyerusalem; Kilsdonk, Laurens J; Brans, Kristien; Jansen, Mieke; Lemmens, Pieter; De Meester, Luc

2018-01-01

There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco-evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow-up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top-down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top-down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S-map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top-down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.

Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part I: Introducing knowledge into the dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmieder, R.W.

The author presents a new approach for modeling the dynamics of collections of objects with internal structure. Based on the fact that the behavior of an individual in a population is modified by its knowledge of other individuals, a procedure for accounting for knowledge in a population of interacting objects is presented. It is assumed that each object has partial (or complete) knowledge of some (or all) other objects in the population. The dynamical equations for the objects are then modified to include the effects of this pairwise knowledge. This procedure has the effect of projecting out what the populationmore » will do from the much larger space of what it could do, i.e., filtering or smoothing the dynamics by replacing the complex detailed physical model with an effective model that produces the behavior of interest. The procedure therefore provides a minimalist approach for obtaining emergent collective behavior. The use of knowledge as a dynamical quantity, and its relationship to statistical mechanics, thermodynamics, information theory, and cognition microstructure are discussed.« less

Age, maturation, and population structure of the Humboldt squid Dosidicus gigas off the Peruvian Exclusive Economic Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Bilin; Chen, Xinjun; Chen, Yong; Tian, Siquan; Li, Jianhua; Fang, Zhou; Yang, Mingxia

2013-01-01

Age, maturation and population structure of the Humboldt squid Dosidicus gigas were studied based on random sampling of the Chinese jigging fishery off the Peruvian Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) during 2008-2010. Estimated ages ranged from 144 to 633 days, confirming that the squid is a short-lived species with longevity no longer than 2 years. Occurrence of mature females and hatching in each month indicated that Humboldt squid spawned year-round. Back-calculated hatching dates for the samples were from January 22nd, 2008 to April 22nd, 2010 with a peak between January and March. Two size-based and two hatching date-based populations could be defined from mantle length (ML) at maturity and back-calculated hatching dates, respectively. Females matured at a larger size than males, and there was a significant difference in ML at maturity between the two hatching groups ( P <0.05). The waters adjacent to 11°S off the Peruvian EEZ may be a potential spawning ground. This study shows the complexity of the population structure and large variability in key life history parameters in the Humboldt squid off the Peruvian EEZ, which should be considered in the assessment and management of this important resource.

Complex Population Dynamics and the Coalescent Under Neutrality

PubMed Central

Volz, Erik M.

2012-01-01

Estimates of the coalescent effective population size Ne can be poorly correlated with the true population size. The relationship between Ne and the population size is sensitive to the way in which birth and death rates vary over time. The problem of inference is exacerbated when the mechanisms underlying population dynamics are complex and depend on many parameters. In instances where nonparametric estimators of Ne such as the skyline struggle to reproduce the correct demographic history, model-based estimators that can draw on prior information about population size and growth rates may be more efficient. A coalescent model is developed for a large class of populations such that the demographic history is described by a deterministic nonlinear dynamical system of arbitrary dimension. This class of demographic model differs from those typically used in population genetics. Birth and death rates are not fixed, and no assumptions are made regarding the fraction of the population sampled. Furthermore, the population may be structured in such a way that gene copies reproduce both within and across demes. For this large class of models, it is shown how to derive the rate of coalescence, as well as the likelihood of a gene genealogy with heterochronous sampling and labeled taxa, and how to simulate a coalescent tree conditional on a complex demographic history. This theoretical framework encapsulates many of the models used by ecologists and epidemiologists and should facilitate the integration of population genetics with the study of mathematical population dynamics. PMID:22042576

A quantitative model of honey bee colony population dynamics.

PubMed

Khoury, David S; Myerscough, Mary R; Barron, Andrew B

2011-04-18

Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem.

On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics

PubMed Central

Krkošek, Martin; Drake, John M.

2014-01-01

Critical slowing down (CSD) reflects the decline in resilience of equilibria near a bifurcation and may reveal early warning signals (EWS) of ecological phase transitions. We studied CSD in the recruitment dynamics of 120 stocks of three Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) species in relation to critical transitions in fishery models. Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) exhibited increased variability and autocorrelation in populations that had a growth parameter, r, close to zero, consistent with EWS of extinction. However, models and data for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) indicate that portfolio effects from heterogeneity in age-at-maturity may obscure EWS. Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) show intermediate results. The data do not reveal EWS of Ricker-type bifurcations that cause oscillations and chaos at high r. These results not only provide empirical support for CSD in some ecological systems, but also indicate that portfolio effects of age structure may conceal EWS of some critical transitions. PMID:24759855

Native fishes in the Truckee River: Are in-stream structures and patterns of population genetic structure related?

PubMed

Peacock, Mary M; Gustin, Mae S; Kirchoff, Veronica S; Robinson, Morgan L; Hekkala, Evon; Pizzarro-Barraza, Claudia; Loux, Tim

2016-09-01

In-stream structures are recognized as significant impediments to movement for freshwater fishes. Apex predators such as salmonids have been the focus of much research on the impacts of such barriers to population dynamics and population viability however much less research has focused on native fishes, where in-stream structures may have a greater impact on long term population viability of these smaller, less mobile species. Patterns of genetic structure on a riverscape can provide information on which structures represent real barriers to movement for fish species and under what specific flow conditions. Here we characterize the impact of 41 dam and diversion structures on movement dynamics under varying flow conditions for a suite of six native fishes found in the Truckee River of California and Nevada. Microsatellite loci were used to estimate total allelic diversity, effective population size and assess genetic population structure. Although there is spatial overlap among species within the river there are clear differences in species distributions within the watershed. Observed population genetic structure was associated with in-stream structures, but only under low flow conditions. High total discharge in 2006 allowed fish to move over potential barriers resulting in no observed population genetic structure for any species in 2007. The efficacy of in-stream structures to impede movement and isolate fish emerged only after multiple years of low flow conditions. Our results suggest that restricted movement of fish species, as a result of in-stream barriers, can be mitigated by flow management. However, as flow dynamics are likely to be altered under global climate change, fragmentation due to barriers could isolate stream fishes into small subpopulations susceptible to both demographic losses and losses of genetic variation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The development of universal health insurance coverage in Thailand: Challenges of population aging and informal economy.

PubMed

Hsu, Minchung; Huang, Xianguo; Yupho, Somrasri

2015-11-01

This paper quantitatively investigates the sustainability of the universal health insurance coverage (UHI) system in Thailand while taking into account the country's rapidly aging population and large informal labor sector. We examine the effects of population aging and informal employment across three tax options for financing the UHI. A modern dynamic general equilibrium framework is utilized to conduct policy experiments and welfare analysis. In the case of labor income tax being used to finance the cost of UHI, an additional 11-15% of labor tax will be required with the 2050 population age structure, compared with the 2005 benchmark economy. We also find that an expansion of income tax base to the informal sector can substantially alleviate the tax burden. Based on welfare comparisons across the alternative tax options, the labor income tax is the most preferred because the inequality between formal/informal sectors is large. If the informal sector cannot avoid labor income tax, capital tax will be preferred over labor and consumption taxes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

POPULATION DYNAMICS OF HISPID COTTON RATS (SIGMODON HISPIDUS) ACROSS A NITROGEN AMENDED LANDSCAPE

EPA Science Inventory

Population dynamics of some small-mammal species appear to be regulated by plant-community structure, vegetative cover, plant diversity, and food quality. Thus, plant community changes associated with nitrogen additions would likely impact dynamics and structure of small-mammal ...

[Population dynamics and development in the Caribbean].

PubMed

Boland, B

1995-12-01

The impact is examined of socioeconomic factors on Caribbean population dynamics. This work begins by describing the socioeconomic context of the late 1980s and early 1990s, under the influence of the economic changes and crises of the 1980s. The small size, openness, dependency, and lack of diversification of the Caribbean economies have made them vulnerable to external pressures. The Bahamas and Belize had economic growth rates exceeding 5% annually during 1981-90, but most of the countries had low or negative growth. Unemployment, poverty, the structural adjustment measures adopted in the mid-1980s, and declines in social spending exacerbated general economic conditions. In broad terms, the population situation of the Caribbean is marked by diversity of sizes and growth rates. A few countries oriented toward services and tourism had demographic growth rates exceeding 3%, while at least 7 had almost no growth or negative growth. Population growth rates reflected different combinations of natural increase and migration. Crude death rates ranged from around 5/1000 to 11/1000, except in Haiti, and all countries of the region except Haiti had life expectancies of 70 years or higher. Despite fertility decline, the average crude birth rate was still relatively high at 26/1000, and the rate of natural increase was 1.8% annually for the region. Nearly half of the regional population was under 15 or over 65 years old. The body of this work provides greater detail on mortality patterns, variations by sex, infant mortality, causes of death, and implications for policy. The discussion of fertility includes general patterns and trends, age specific fertility rates, contraceptive prevalence, levels of adolescent fertility and age factors in adolescent sexual behavior, characteristics of adolescent unions, contraceptive usage, health and social consequences of adolescent childbearing, and the search for solutions. The final section describes the magnitude and causes of

The challenges of human population ageing

PubMed Central

Sander, Miriam; Oxlund, Bjarke; Jespersen, Astrid; Krasnik, Allan; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Westendorp, Rudi Gerardus Johannes; Rasmussen, Lene Juel

2015-01-01

The 20th century saw an unprecedented increase in average human lifespan as well as a rapid decline in human fertility in many countries of the world. The accompanying worldwide change in demographics of human populations is linked to unanticipated and unprecedented economic, cultural, medical, social, public health and public policy challenges, whose full implications on a societal level are only just beginning to be fully appreciated. Some of these implications are discussed in this commentary, an outcome of Cultures of Health and Ageing, a conference co-sponsored by the University of Copenhagen (UCPH) and the Center for Healthy Ageing at UCPH, which took place on 20–21 June 2014 in Copenhagen, Denmark. Questions discussed here include the following: what is driving age-structural change in human populations? how can we create ‘age-friendly’ societies and promote ‘ageing-in-community’? what tools will effectively promote social engagement and prevent social detachment among older individuals? is there a risk that further extension of human lifespan would be a greater burden to the individual and to society than is warranted by the potential benefit of longer life? PMID:25452294

Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations

PubMed Central

Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M.; Wang, Long

2014-01-01

On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics. PMID:24598208

Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations.

PubMed

Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M; Wang, Long

2014-05-06

On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics.

The impact of natural transformation on adaptation in spatially structured bacterial populations.

PubMed

Moradigaravand, Danesh; Engelstädter, Jan

2014-06-20

Recent studies have demonstrated that natural transformation and the formation of highly structured populations in bacteria are interconnected. In spite of growing evidence about this connection, little is known about the dynamics of natural transformation in spatially structured bacterial populations. In this work, we model the interdependency between the dynamics of the bacterial gene pool and those of environmental DNA in space to dissect the effect of transformation on adaptation. Our model reveals that even with only a single locus under consideration, transformation with a free DNA fragment pool results in complex adaptation dynamics that do not emerge in previous models focusing only on the gene shuffling effect of transformation at multiple loci. We demonstrate how spatial restriction on population growth and DNA diffusion in the environment affect the impact of transformation on adaptation. We found that in structured bacterial populations intermediate DNA diffusion rates predominantly cause transformation to impede adaptation by spreading deleterious alleles in the population. Overall, our model highlights distinctive evolutionary consequences of bacterial transformation in spatially restricted compared to planktonic bacterial populations.

An Age-Structured Extension to the Vectorial Capacity Model

PubMed Central

Novoseltsev, Vasiliy N.; Michalski, Anatoli I.; Novoseltseva, Janna A.; Yashin, Anatoliy I.; Carey, James R.; Ellis, Alicia M.

2012-01-01

Background Vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number (R0) have been instrumental in structuring thinking about vector-borne pathogen transmission and how best to prevent the diseases they cause. One of the more important simplifying assumptions of these models is age-independent vector mortality. A growing body of evidence indicates that insect vectors exhibit age-dependent mortality, which can have strong and varied affects on pathogen transmission dynamics and strategies for disease prevention. Methodology/Principal Findings Based on survival analysis we derived new equations for vectorial capacity and R0 that are valid for any pattern of age-dependent (or age–independent) vector mortality and explore the behavior of the models across various mortality patterns. The framework we present (1) lays the groundwork for an extension and refinement of the vectorial capacity paradigm by introducing an age-structured extension to the model, (2) encourages further research on the actuarial dynamics of vectors in particular and the relationship of vector mortality to pathogen transmission in general, and (3) provides a detailed quantitative basis for understanding the relative impact of reductions in vector longevity compared to other vector-borne disease prevention strategies. Conclusions/Significance Accounting for age-dependent vector mortality in estimates of vectorial capacity and R0 was most important when (1) vector densities are relatively low and the pattern of mortality can determine whether pathogen transmission will persist; i.e., determines whether R0 is above or below 1, (2) vector population growth rate is relatively low and there are complex interactions between birth and death that differ fundamentally from birth-death relationships with age-independent mortality, and (3) the vector exhibits complex patterns of age-dependent mortality and R0∼1. A limiting factor in the construction and evaluation of new age-dependent mortality models is the

Changes in Age Structure and Rural Community Growth.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGranahan, David A.

1985-01-01

Whatever migration patterns evolve, changes in the age structure mean that rural communities in general can expect fairly stable elementary school population, reduced high school population, slower growth in new business and employment, and continued increase in the elderly population. (JHZ)

Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population.

PubMed

Chan, Kung-Sik; Mysterud, Atle; Øritsland, Nils Are; Severinsen, Torbjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2005-10-01

Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event ("locked pastures") with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) "event" process. The introduction of an "event" parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events.

Interaction between Floods Occurrence and Gender and Age Structure of Population in Belarus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partasenok, Irina; Kvach, Alena

2017-04-01

The high spring snow-melting or rainfall flooding is the most important and actual event in hydrological cycle for the territory of Belarus. It caused an inundation that means exceeding of water level in the river above safe line and water floods to the adjacent territories. Inundations led to significant destruction of adjoining territories, huge financial damage and threat for human being. The frequencies of spring flooding in Belarus is defined by intensity of river network, its morphometric characteristics and hydrometeorological conditions during the season before floods. The aim of the present study is to estimate the spatial distribution of flood inundation frequency and gender and age structure of national population which might be suffer under extreme phenomena on the rivers. We analysed dangerous thresholds in the river water levels and the frequency of floods of various severity within different river basins, quantity of men and women and their ratio, the quantity of people in the age upper 70 years old as a most sensitive to the flood risk group of population and ratio of rural houses to the entire housing resources as a most vulnerable infrastructure in the different regions of the country. During floods the dangerous levels which cause the inundation have been recorded in the 4 largest river basins passes the territory of Belarus. The most frequent inundations (every two years) occur in the south of the country in the Prypyat` river basin, and in the Dnepr river basin (every 4-5 years) on the majority of the rivers. The hypothesis of our study is that quantity of women population is higher in the flood risk regions (we defined 30 regions with highly frequent inundations) and their ratio high with the age. The majority of them live in potential flood dangerous regions. The strong connections between size of the river basin, its potential flood risk and quantity of population in the region was established. The ratio of men and women over country varied

Dynamics of newly established elk populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sargeant, G.A.; Oehler, M.W.

2007-01-01

The dynamics of newly established elk (Cervus elaphus) populations can provide insights about maximum sustainable rates of reproduction, survival, and increase. However, data used to estimate rates of increase typically have been limited to counts and rarely have included complementary estimates of vital rates. Complexities of population dynamics cannot be understood without considering population processes as well as population states. We estimated pregnancy rates, survival rates, age ratios, and sex ratios for reintroduced elk at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota, USA; combined vital rates in a population projection model; and compared model projections with observed elk numbers and population ratios. Pregnancy rates in January (early in the second trimester of pregnancy) averaged 54.1% (SE = 5.4%) for subadults and 91.0% (SE = 1.7%) for adults, and 91.6% of pregnancies resulted in recruitment at 8 months. Annual survival rates of adult females averaged 0.96 (95% CI = 0.94-0.98) with hunting included and 0.99 (95% CI = 0.97-0.99) with hunting excluded from calculations. Our fitted model explained 99.8% of past variation in population estimates and represents a useful new tool for short-term management planning. Although we found no evidence of temporal variation in vital rates, variation in population composition caused substantial variation in projected rates of increase (??=1.20-1.36). Restoring documented hunter harvests and removals of elk by the National Park Service led to a potential rate of ?? = 1.26. Greater rates of increase substantiated elsewhere were within the expected range of chance variation, given our model and estimates of vital rates. Rates of increase realized by small elk populations are too variable to support inferences about habitat quality or density dependence.

Successional changes in trophic interactions support a mechanistic model of post-fire population dynamics.

PubMed

Smith, Annabel L

2018-01-01

Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.

Tangled nature model of evolutionary dynamics reconsidered: Structural and dynamical effects of trait inheritance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, Christian Walther; Sibani, Paolo

2016-05-01

Based on the stochastic dynamics of interacting agents which reproduce, mutate, and die, the tangled nature model (TNM) describes key emergent features of biological and cultural ecosystems' evolution. While trait inheritance is not included in many applications, i.e., the interactions of an agent and those of its mutated offspring are taken to be uncorrelated, in the family of TNMs introduced in this work correlations of varying strength are parametrized by a positive integer K . We first show that the interactions generated by our rule are nearly independent of K . Consequently, the structural and dynamical effects of trait inheritance can be studied independently of effects related to the form of the interactions. We then show that changing K strengthens the core structure of the ecology, leads to population abundance distributions better approximated by log-normal probability densities, and increases the probability that a species extant at time tw also survives at t >tw . Finally, survival probabilities of species are shown to decay as powers of the ratio t /tw , a so-called pure aging behavior usually seen in glassy systems of physical origin. We find a quantitative dynamical effect of trait inheritance, namely, that increasing the value of K numerically decreases the decay exponent of the species survival probability.

Tangled nature model of evolutionary dynamics reconsidered: Structural and dynamical effects of trait inheritance.

PubMed

Andersen, Christian Walther; Sibani, Paolo

2016-05-01

Based on the stochastic dynamics of interacting agents which reproduce, mutate, and die, the tangled nature model (TNM) describes key emergent features of biological and cultural ecosystems' evolution. While trait inheritance is not included in many applications, i.e., the interactions of an agent and those of its mutated offspring are taken to be uncorrelated, in the family of TNMs introduced in this work correlations of varying strength are parametrized by a positive integer K. We first show that the interactions generated by our rule are nearly independent of K. Consequently, the structural and dynamical effects of trait inheritance can be studied independently of effects related to the form of the interactions. We then show that changing K strengthens the core structure of the ecology, leads to population abundance distributions better approximated by log-normal probability densities, and increases the probability that a species extant at time t_{w} also survives at t>t_{w}. Finally, survival probabilities of species are shown to decay as powers of the ratio t/t_{w}, a so-called pure aging behavior usually seen in glassy systems of physical origin. We find a quantitative dynamical effect of trait inheritance, namely, that increasing the value of K numerically decreases the decay exponent of the species survival probability.

Equilibrium population dynamics when mating is by mutual choice based on age.

PubMed

Alpern, Steve; Katrantzi, Ioanna; Ramsey, David

2014-06-01

We consider a steady state model of mutual mate choice in which an individual's mate preferences depend on his/her age, and the preferences are over the ages of prospective mates of the opposite sex. We present a discrete time (and age) model corresponding to successive mating seasons. Males are fertile for m periods (corresponding to 'age' i=1 to m) and females for n≤m periods (they have ages j=1 to n), which is all that distinguishes the sexes. Although we can deal with arbitrary preferences, we concentrate on a simple fertility model where the common utility to a male age i and female age j who mate is the number K=min(m-i+1,n-j+1) of future periods of joint fertility. The incoming sex ratio R of age 1 males to age 1 females is given exogenously. In each period individuals are randomly (non assortatively) matched and form a mated couple by mutual consent; otherwise they go into the next period unmated and older. We derive properties of equilibrium threshold acceptance strategies and establish the existence of time-invariant age distributions. Our methods determine the age distribution of couples at marriage (mating) and the population sex ratio (OSR) at equilibrium. Since this can be determined empirically in a population, our model can be used to rule out most systems of age preferences (those not consistent with the observed distribution). This extends earlier models of mutual choice with one dimensional types of Alpern and Reyniers [1999. Strategic mating with homotypic preferences. J. Theor. Biol. 198, 71-88; 2005. Strategic mating with common preferences. J. Theor. Biol. 237, 337-354] where individuals sought, respectively, individuals with similar or high types, but in those models an individual's type was fixed over time. Under the simple fertility model, at equilibrium the maximum age of an acceptable partner is increasing in the age of the searcher. Our results relate to discussions in the literature regarding optimal parental age differences, age

Producing genome structure populations with the dynamic and automated PGS software.

PubMed

Hua, Nan; Tjong, Harianto; Shin, Hanjun; Gong, Ke; Zhou, Xianghong Jasmine; Alber, Frank

2018-05-01

Chromosome conformation capture technologies such as Hi-C are widely used to investigate the spatial organization of genomes. Because genome structures can vary considerably between individual cells of a population, interpreting ensemble-averaged Hi-C data can be challenging, in particular for long-range and interchromosomal interactions. We pioneered a probabilistic approach for the generation of a population of distinct diploid 3D genome structures consistent with all the chromatin-chromatin interaction probabilities from Hi-C experiments. Each structure in the population is a physical model of the genome in 3D. Analysis of these models yields new insights into the causes and the functional properties of the genome's organization in space and time. We provide a user-friendly software package, called PGS, which runs on local machines (for practice runs) and high-performance computing platforms. PGS takes a genome-wide Hi-C contact frequency matrix, along with information about genome segmentation, and produces an ensemble of 3D genome structures entirely consistent with the input. The software automatically generates an analysis report, and provides tools to extract and analyze the 3D coordinates of specific domains. Basic Linux command-line knowledge is sufficient for using this software. A typical running time of the pipeline is ∼3 d with 300 cores on a computer cluster to generate a population of 1,000 diploid genome structures at topological-associated domain (TAD)-level resolution.

From structure to function, via dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stetter, O.; Soriano, J.; Geisel, T.; Battaglia, D.

2013-01-01

Neurons in the brain are wired into a synaptic network that spans multiple scales, from local circuits within cortical columns to fiber tracts interconnecting distant areas. However, brain function require the dynamic control of inter-circuit interactions on time-scales faster than synaptic changes. In particular, strength and direction of causal influences between neural populations (described by the so-called directed functional connectivity) must be reconfigurable even when the underlying structural connectivity is fixed. Such directed functional influences can be quantified resorting to causal analysis of time-series based on tools like Granger Causality or Transfer Entropy. The ability to quickly reorganize inter-areal interactions is a chief requirement for performance in a changing natural environment. But how can manifold functional networks stem "on demand" from an essentially fixed structure? We explore the hypothesis that the self-organization of neuronal synchronous activity underlies the control of brain functional connectivity. Based on simulated and real recordings of critical neuronal cultures in vitro, as well as on mean-field and spiking network models of interacting brain areas, we have found that "function follows dynamics", rather than structure. Different dynamic states of a same structural network, characterized by different synchronization properties, are indeed associated to different functional digraphs (functional multiplicity). We also highlight the crucial role of dynamics in establishing a structure-to-function link, by showing that whenever different structural topologies lead to similar dynamical states, than the associated functional connectivities are also very similar (structural degeneracy).

Determine Age-structure of Gelatinous Zooplankton Using Optical Coherence Tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, H.; Shahrestani, S.; He, Y.

2016-02-01

Gelatinous are delicate and transparent by nature, but are conspicuous in many ecosystems when in bloom. Their proliferations are a bothersome and costly nuisance and influencing important food webs and species interactions. More importantly, gelatinous zooplankton respond to climate change rapidly and understanding their upsurge needs information on their recruitment and population dynamics which in turn require their age-structure. However, ageing gelatinous zooplankton is often restricted by the fact that they shrink under unfavorable conditions. In the present study, we examine the potential of using optical coherence tomography (OCT) to age gelatinous zooplankton. OCT is a non-invasive imaging technique that uses light waves to examine 2D or 3D structure of target objects at a resolution of 3-5 µm. We were able to successfully capture both 3D and 2D images of sea nettle muscle fibers. Preliminary results on ctenophores will be discussed. Overall, this non-destructive sampling allows us to scan and capture images of mesoglea from jellyfish cultured in the lab, using the same individual repeatedly through time, documenting its growth which will provide precise measurements to construct an age key that will be applied to gelatinous zooplankton captured in the field. Coupled with information on abundance, we can start to quantify their recruitment timing and success rate.

Structural dynamics of the mitochondrial compartment.

PubMed

Thorsness, P E

1992-09-01

The metabolic activities of mitochondria have been extensively characterized. However, there is much less known about the morphogenic changes of the mitochondrial compartment during growth, development and aging of the cell and the consequences of those structural changes on cellular metabolism. There is a growing body of evidence for interactions of mitochondria with cytoskeletal components and changes of mitochondrial structure during development and in response to changing environmental conditions. Segregation and recombination of mitochondrial genomes are also processes dependent upon the dynamic nature of the mitochondrial compartment. These regulatory and structural aspects of mitochondrial compartment dynamics will play an important role in the analysis of mitochondrial function and pathology.

Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-05-01

Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

Constructing stage-structured matrix population models from life tables: comparison of methods

PubMed Central

Diaz-Lopez, Jasmin

2017-01-01

A matrix population model is a convenient tool for summarizing per capita survival and reproduction rates (collectively vital rates) of a population and can be used for calculating an asymptotic finite population growth rate (λ) and generation time. These two pieces of information can be used for determining the status of a threatened species. The use of stage-structured population models has increased in recent years, and the vital rates in such models are often estimated using a life table analysis. However, potential bias introduced when converting age-structured vital rates estimated from a life table into parameters for a stage-structured population model has not been assessed comprehensively. The objective of this study was to investigate the performance of methods for such conversions using simulated life histories of organisms. The underlying models incorporate various types of life history and true population growth rates of varying levels. The performance was measured by comparing differences in λ and the generation time calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, age-structured population matrices, and several stage-structured population matrices that were obtained by applying different conversion methods. The results show that the discretization of age introduces only small bias in λ or generation time. Similarly, assuming a fixed age of maturation at the mean age of maturation does not introduce much bias. However, aggregating age-specific survival rates into a stage-specific survival rate and estimating a stage-transition rate can introduce substantial bias depending on the organism’s life history type and the true values of λ. In order to aggregate survival rates, the use of the weighted arithmetic mean was the most robust method for estimating λ. Here, the weights are given by survivorship curve after discounting with λ. To estimate a stage-transition rate, matching the proportion of individuals transitioning, with λ used for discounting the

Constructing stage-structured matrix population models from life tables: comparison of methods.

PubMed

Fujiwara, Masami; Diaz-Lopez, Jasmin

2017-01-01

A matrix population model is a convenient tool for summarizing per capita survival and reproduction rates (collectively vital rates) of a population and can be used for calculating an asymptotic finite population growth rate ( λ ) and generation time. These two pieces of information can be used for determining the status of a threatened species. The use of stage-structured population models has increased in recent years, and the vital rates in such models are often estimated using a life table analysis. However, potential bias introduced when converting age-structured vital rates estimated from a life table into parameters for a stage-structured population model has not been assessed comprehensively. The objective of this study was to investigate the performance of methods for such conversions using simulated life histories of organisms. The underlying models incorporate various types of life history and true population growth rates of varying levels. The performance was measured by comparing differences in λ and the generation time calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, age-structured population matrices, and several stage-structured population matrices that were obtained by applying different conversion methods. The results show that the discretization of age introduces only small bias in λ or generation time. Similarly, assuming a fixed age of maturation at the mean age of maturation does not introduce much bias. However, aggregating age-specific survival rates into a stage-specific survival rate and estimating a stage-transition rate can introduce substantial bias depending on the organism's life history type and the true values of λ . In order to aggregate survival rates, the use of the weighted arithmetic mean was the most robust method for estimating λ . Here, the weights are given by survivorship curve after discounting with λ . To estimate a stage-transition rate, matching the proportion of individuals transitioning, with λ used for discounting

Population ageing and dental care.

PubMed

Harford, Jane

2009-04-01

Population ageing is a fact in both developed and developing countries. The concern about population ageing largely arises from the combination of a greater number of older people requiring greater amounts of healthcare services and pensions, and relatively fewer people working to pay for them. Oral health and dental care are important aspects of health and health care. Lower rates of edentulism and an ageing population mean that older people will feature more prominently in dental services. Traditionally, economic studies of ageing have focused on the fiscal implications of ageing, projecting the increased burden on health and welfare services that accompanies ageing. It assumed that ageing is the major driver of recent changes and those past trends will simply be amplified by faster population ageing in the future. Less work has been done to understand other past drivers of increased healthcare spending and their implications for the future. The conclusion of these reports is usually that population ageing is unaffordable with current policy settings. They have proposed policies to deal with population ageing which focused on increasing workforce participation and worker productivity to increase the tax base and reducing entitlements. However, the affordability question is as much political as a numerical. There are no clearly articulated criteria for affordability and little opportunity for public discourse about what citizens are willing to pay in taxes to support an ageing population. While the reports do not necessarily reflect public opinion, they will certainly shape it. Predicting the future for oral health is more fraught than for general health, as oral health is in the midst of an epidemiological transition from high rates of edentulism and tooth loss to low rates. Changes in the pattern of dental expenditure in the past do not mirror the experience of rapid increases in per capita expenditure on older age groups as regards general health. Dentistry

Ages and structural and dynamical parameters of two globular clusters in the M81 group

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jun; Wang, Song; Wu, Zhenyu; Zhang, TianMeng; Zou, Hu; Zhou, Zhimin; Nie, Jundan; Zhou, Xu; Peng, Xiyang; Wang, Jiali; Wu, Jianghua; Du, Cuihua; Yuan, Qirong

2017-07-01

GC-1 and GC-2 are two globular clusters (GCs) in the remote halo of M81 and M82 in the M81 group discovered by Jang et al. using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) images. These two GCs were observed as part of the Beijing-Arizona-Taiwan-Connecticut (BATC) Multicolor Sky Survey using 14 intermediate-band filters covering a wavelength range of 4000-10 000 Å. We accurately determine these two clusters' ages and masses by comparing their spectral energy distributions (from 2267 to 20 000 Å, comprising photometric data in the near-ultraviolet of the Galaxy Evolution Explorer, 14 BATC intermediate-band and Two Micron All Sky Survey near-infrared JHKs filters) with theoretical stellar population-synthesis models, resulting in ages of 15.50 ± 3.20 for GC-1 and 15.10 ± 2.70 Gyr for GC-2. The masses of GC-1 and GC-2 obtained here are 1.77-2.04 × 106 and 5.20-7.11 × 106 M⊙, respectively. In addition, the deep observations with the Advanced Camera for Surveys and Wide Field Camera 3 on the HST are used to provide the surface brightness profiles of GC-1 and GC-2. The structural and dynamical parameters are derived from fitting the profiles to three different models; in particular, the internal velocity dispersions of GC-1 and GC-2 are derived, which can be compared with ones obtained based on spectral observations in the future. For the first time, in this paper, the rh versus MV diagram shows that GC-2 is an ultra-compact dwarf in the M81 group.

Travelling Wave Solutions in Multigroup Age-Structured Epidemic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ducrot, Arnaut; Magal, Pierre; Ruan, Shigui

2010-01-01

Age-structured epidemic models have been used to describe either the age of individuals or the age of infection of certain diseases and to determine how these characteristics affect the outcomes and consequences of epidemiological processes. Most results on age-structured epidemic models focus on the existence, uniqueness, and convergence to disease equilibria of solutions. In this paper we investigate the existence of travelling wave solutions in a deterministic age-structured model describing the circulation of a disease within a population of multigroups. Individuals of each group are able to move with a random walk which is modelled by the classical Fickian diffusion and are classified into two subclasses, susceptible and infective. A susceptible individual in a given group can be crisscross infected by direct contact with infective individuals of possibly any group. This process of transmission can depend upon the age of the disease of infected individuals. The goal of this paper is to provide sufficient conditions that ensure the existence of travelling wave solutions for the age-structured epidemic model. The case of two population groups is numerically investigated which applies to the crisscross transmission of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and some sexual transmission diseases.

Dynamic changes in the population structure of Escherichia coli in the Yeongsan River basin of South Korea.

PubMed

Jang, Jeonghwan; Di, Doris Y W; Han, Dukki; Unno, Tatsuya; Lee, Jeom-Ho; Sadowsky, Michael J; Hur, Hor-Gil

2015-11-01

Although Escherichia coli has been used as an indicator to examine fecal contamination of aquatic environment, it also has been reported to become naturalized to secondary habitats, including soil, water and beach sand. A total of 2880 E. coli isolates obtained from surface water and sediment samples from the Yeongsan River in 2013 were genotyped by using the horizontal fluorophore-enhanced rep-PCR DNA fingerprinting technique. Although different E. coli genotypic groups were observed between surface water and sediments in the dry season, they were mingled and undifferentiated from each other in the rainy season. This indicates that there are frequent sediment resuspension events in the river basin. Moreover, the genotypic composition of the E. coli population in the Yeongsan River basin changes over months and years, implying that genotypic structure of E. coli populations dynamically fluctuates in the river environment. Consequently, our data suggests that the use of E. coli libraries for fecal source tracking needs to be reassessed to account for the changing structure of riverine E. coli populations. © FEMS 2015. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Effect of extreme sea surface temperature events on the demography of an age-structured albatross population.

PubMed

Pardo, Deborah; Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Weimerskirch, Henri; Barbraud, Christophe

2017-06-19

Climate changes include concurrent changes in environmental mean, variance and extremes, and it is challenging to understand their respective impact on wild populations, especially when contrasted age-dependent responses to climate occur. We assessed how changes in mean and standard deviation of sea surface temperature (SST), frequency and magnitude of warm SST extreme climatic events (ECE) influenced the stochastic population growth rate log( λ s ) and age structure of a black-browed albatross population. For changes in SST around historical levels observed since 1982, changes in standard deviation had a larger (threefold) and negative impact on log( λ s ) compared to changes in mean. By contrast, the mean had a positive impact on log( λ s ). The historical SST mean was lower than the optimal SST value for which log( λ s ) was maximized. Thus, a larger environmental mean increased the occurrence of SST close to this optimum that buffered the negative effect of ECE. This 'climate safety margin' (i.e. difference between optimal and historical climatic conditions) and the specific shape of the population growth rate response to climate for a species determine how ECE affect the population. For a wider range in SST, both the mean and standard deviation had negative impact on log( λ s ), with changes in the mean having a greater effect than the standard deviation. Furthermore, around SST historical levels increases in either mean or standard deviation of the SST distribution led to a younger population, with potentially important conservation implications for black-browed albatrosses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Employment population age-share differences: an international comparison of the economic impact of population aging.

PubMed

Brucker, Eric

2009-01-01

International comparisons of the economic impact of population aging across nations can give valuable insights regarding which policies are most effective in addressing aging-related economic issues. Traditional old-age dependency ratios, by not accounting for differences in labor force participation rates, can be misleading. A new measure, the difference between an age group's share of total employment and its share of the total adult population, is developed and shown to be empirically sensitive to different policy actions. The analysis is built upon readily available and comparable International Labour Organization age-group data on population and labor force participation rates.

Facial dynamics and emotional expressions in facial aging treatments.

PubMed

Michaud, Thierry; Gassia, Véronique; Belhaouari, Lakhdar

2015-03-01

Facial expressions convey emotions that form the foundation of interpersonal relationships, and many of these emotions promote and regulate our social linkages. Hence, the facial aging symptomatological analysis and the treatment plan must of necessity include knowledge of the facial dynamics and the emotional expressions of the face. This approach aims to more closely meet patients' expectations of natural-looking results, by correcting age-related negative expressions while observing the emotional language of the face. This article will successively describe patients' expectations, the role of facial expressions in relational dynamics, the relationship between facial structures and facial expressions, and the way facial aging mimics negative expressions. Eventually, therapeutic implications for facial aging treatment will be addressed. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Using Dynamic Stochastic Modelling to Estimate Population Risk Factors in Infectious Disease: The Example of FIV in 15 Cat Populations

PubMed Central

Fouchet, David; Leblanc, Guillaume; Sauvage, Frank; Guiserix, Micheline; Poulet, Hervé; Pontier, Dominique

2009-01-01

Background In natural cat populations, Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV) is transmitted through bites between individuals. Factors such as the density of cats within the population or the sex-ratio can have potentially strong effects on the frequency of fight between individuals and hence appear as important population risk factors for FIV. Methodology/Principal Findings To study such population risk factors, we present data on FIV prevalence in 15 cat populations in northeastern France. We investigate five key social factors of cat populations; the density of cats, the sex-ratio, the number of males and the mean age of males and females within the population. We overcome the problem of dependence in the infective status data using sexually-structured dynamic stochastic models. Only the age of males and females had an effect (p = 0.043 and p = 0.02, respectively) on the male-to-female transmission rate. Due to multiple tests, it is even likely that these effects are, in reality, not significant. Finally we show that, in our study area, the data can be explained by a very simple model that does not invoke any risk factor. Conclusion Our conclusion is that, in host-parasite systems in general, fluctuations due to stochasticity in the transmission process are naturally very large and may alone explain a larger part of the variability in observed disease prevalence between populations than previously expected. Finally, we determined confidence intervals for the simple model parameters that can be used to further aid in management of the disease. PMID:19888418

Demography and population dynamics of the mouse opossum (Thylamys elegans) in semi-arid Chile: seasonality, feedback structure and climate.

PubMed Central

Lima, M.; Stenseth, N. C.; Yoccoz, N. G.; Jaksic, F. M.

2001-01-01

Here we present, to the authors' knowledge for the very first time for a small marsupial, a thorough analysis of the demography and population dynamics of the mouse opossum (Thylamys elegans) in western South America. We test the relative importance of feedback structure and climatic factors (rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index) in explaining the temporal variation in the demography of the mouse opossum. The demographic information was incorporated into a stage-structured population dynamics model and the model's predictions were compared with observed patterns. The mouse opossum's capture rates showed seasonal (within-year) and between-year variability, with individuals having higher capture rates during late summer and autumn and lower capture rates during winter and spring. There was also a strong between-year effect on capture probabilities. The reproductive (the fraction of reproductively active individuals) and recruitment rates showed a clear seasonal and a between-year pattern of variation with the peak of reproductive activity occuring during winter and early spring. In addition, the fraction of reproductive individuals was positively related to annual rainfall, while population density and annual rainfall positively influenced the recruitment rate. The survival rates were negatively related to annual rainfall. The average finite population growth rate during the study period was estimated to be 1.011 +/- 0.0019 from capture-recapture estimates. While the annual growth rate estimated from the seasonal linear matrix models was 1.026, the subadult and adult survival and maturation rates represent between 54% (winter) and 81% (summer) of the impact on the annual growth rate. PMID:11571053

Fixation Times in Deme Structured, Finite Populations with Rare Migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauert, Christoph; Chen, Yu-Ting; Imhof, Lorens A.

2014-08-01

Population structure affects both the outcome and the speed of evolutionary dynamics. Here we consider a finite population that is divided into subpopulations called demes. The dynamics within the demes are stochastic and frequency-dependent. Individuals can adopt one of two strategic types, or . The fitness of each individual is determined by interactions with other individuals in the same deme. With small probability, proportional to fitness, individuals migrate to other demes. The outcome of these dynamics has been studied earlier by analyzing the fixation probability of a single mutant in an otherwise homogeneous population. These results give only a partial picture of the dynamics, because the time when fixation occurs can be exceedingly large. In this paper, we study the impact of deme structures on the speed of evolution. We derive analytical approximations of fixation times in the limit of rare migration and rare mutation. In this limit, the conditional fixation time of a single mutant in a population is the same as that of a single in an population. For the prisoner's dilemma game, simulation results fit very well with our analytical predictions and demonstrate that fixation takes place in a moderate amount of time as compared to the expected waiting time until a mutant successfully invades and fixates. The simulations also confirm that the conditional fixation time of a single cooperator is indeed the same as that of a single defector.

Survival and Population Dynamics of the Marabou Stork in an Isolated Population, Swaziland

PubMed Central

Monadjem, Ara; Kane, Adam; Botha, Andre; Dalton, Desire; Kotze, Antoinette

2012-01-01

Investigating the ecology of long lived birds is particularly challenging owing to the time scales involved. Here an analysis is presented of a long term study of the survival and population dynamics of the marabou stork (Leptoptilos crumeniferus), a wide ranging scavenging bird from Sub-Saharan Africa. Using resightings data of tagged nestlings and free flying birds we show that the stork population can be divided into three general life stages with unique survival probabilities and fecundities. Fecundity of the storks is inversely related to rainfall during their breeding season. Corroborative evidence for a metapopulation structure is discussed highlighting the impact of the Swaziland birds on the ecology of the species in the broader region. The importance of tag loss or illegibility over time is highlighted. Clearly, any attempt at conserving a species will require a detailed understanding of its population structure, of the sort examined here. PMID:23029517

Population structure and fruit production of Pyrus bourgaeana D. are affected by land-use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arenas-Castro, Salvador; Fernández-Haeger, Juan; Jordano-Barbudo, Diego

2016-11-01

The Iberian wild pear (Pyrus bourgaeana D.) is a rare, fleshy-fruited tree restricted to dehesas and evergreen sclerophyllous Mediterranean forests in the southwestern Iberian Peninsula. It produces palatable fruits and leaves attractive to different species groups, playing an important trophic role in the ecological networks of Mediterranean ecosystems. However, the intensification in the traditional land-use linked to these areas could threaten the stability of the wild pear populations in the short/medium-term. In order to determine the population dynamics of this relevant species in relation to the land-use history, we selected two populations (southern Spain) subjected to different land-use management, dehesa (D) and abandoned olive grove (AOG). An analysis of 122 adult trees reported an overall density of 0.6 trees ha-1. The tree age was estimated by tree-rings analysis in all adult trees. Dendrometric parameters, reproductive features, and germination rates were also measured. Regeneration was clearly biased, as evidenced by the truncated age structure. A low correlation (R2 = 34%) between age and DBH (diameter at breast height) (244 cores analysed) showed that diameter seems not to be a reliable predictor of tree age. Trees from AOG populations had significantly-higher values of DBH, height and crown diameter, but were less productive in terms of fruits and seeds. Nested analysis of variance showed significant variation in fruit production, fruit size, dry mass, water content and seed viability. There were also significant differences in masting. No evidence was found to demonstrate that fruit production, seed viability, or germination rate influence the low natural recruitment of this species. These findings indicate that the traditional agrosilvopastoral practices carried out in the study area for decades, and its subsequent intensification, have strongly influenced the ecological structure of the Iberian wild pear populations at the local scale, which

Evolutionary dynamics of collective action in spatially structured populations.

PubMed

Peña, Jorge; Nöldeke, Georg; Lehmann, Laurent

2015-10-07

Many models proposed to study the evolution of collective action rely on a formalism that represents social interactions as n-player games between individuals adopting discrete actions such as cooperate and defect. Despite the importance of spatial structure in biological collective action, the analysis of n-player games games in spatially structured populations has so far proved elusive. We address this problem by considering mixed strategies and by integrating discrete-action n-player games into the direct fitness approach of social evolution theory. This allows to conveniently identify convergence stable strategies and to capture the effect of population structure by a single structure coefficient, namely, the pairwise (scaled) relatedness among interacting individuals. As an application, we use our mathematical framework to investigate collective action problems associated with the provision of three different kinds of collective goods, paradigmatic of a vast array of helping traits in nature: "public goods" (both providers and shirkers can use the good, e.g., alarm calls), "club goods" (only providers can use the good, e.g., participation in collective hunting), and "charity goods" (only shirkers can use the good, e.g., altruistic sacrifice). We show that relatedness promotes the evolution of collective action in different ways depending on the kind of collective good and its economies of scale. Our findings highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for relatedness, the kind of collective good, and the economies of scale in theoretical and empirical studies of the evolution of collective action. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Demographic Deficit? Local Population Aging and Access to Services in Rural America, 1990–2010

PubMed Central

Thiede, Brian; Brown, David L.; Sanders, Scott R.; Glasgow, Nina; Kulcsar, Laszlo J.

2017-01-01

Population aging is being experienced by many rural communities in the U.S., as evidenced by increases in the median age and the high incidence of natural population decrease. The implications of these changes in population structure for the daily lives of the residents in such communities have received little attention. We address this issue in the current study by examining the relationship between population aging and the availability of service-providing establishments in the rural U.S. between 1990 and 2010. Using data mainly from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we estimate a series of fixed-effects regression models to identify the relationship between median age and establishment counts net of changes in overall population and other factors. We find a significant, but non-linear relationship between county median age and the total number of service-providing establishments, and counts of most specific types of services. We find a positive effect of total population size across all of our models. This total population effect is consistent with other research, but the independent effects of age structure that we observe represent a novel finding and suggest that age structure is a salient factor in local rural development and community wellbeing. PMID:28757660

Connection between Dynamically Derived Initial Mass Function Normalization and Stellar Population Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Alatalo, Katherine; Bayet, Estelle; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison F.; Davies, Roger L.; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Scott, Nicholas; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M.

2014-09-01

We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization αdyn ≡ (M/L)stars/(M/L)Salp and absorption line strengths, and interpret these via single stellar population-equivalent ages, abundance ratios (measured as [α/Fe]), and total metallicity, [Z/H]. We find that old and alpha-enhanced galaxies tend to have on average heavier (Salpeter-like) mass normalization of the IMF, but stellar population does not appear to be a good predictor of the IMF, with a large range of αdyn at a given population parameter. As a result, we find weak αdyn-[α/Fe] and αdyn -Age correlations and no significant αdyn -[Z/H] correlation. The observed trends appear significantly weaker than those reported in studies that measure the IMF normalization via the low-mass star demographics inferred through stellar spectral analysis.

Multiscale structure in eco-evolutionary dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stacey, Blake C.

In a complex system, the individual components are neither so tightly coupled or correlated that they can all be treated as a single unit, nor so uncorrelated that they can be approximated as independent entities. Instead, patterns of interdependency lead to structure at multiple scales of organization. Evolution excels at producing such complex structures. In turn, the existence of these complex interrelationships within a biological system affects the evolutionary dynamics of that system. I present a mathematical formalism for multiscale structure, grounded in information theory, which makes these intuitions quantitative, and I show how dynamics defined in terms of population genetics or evolutionary game theory can lead to multiscale organization. For complex systems, "more is different," and I address this from several perspectives. Spatial host--consumer models demonstrate the importance of the structures which can arise due to dynamical pattern formation. Evolutionary game theory reveals the novel effects which can result from multiplayer games, nonlinear payoffs and ecological stochasticity. Replicator dynamics in an environment with mesoscale structure relates to generalized conditionalization rules in probability theory. The idea of natural selection "acting at multiple levels" has been mathematized in a variety of ways, not all of which are equivalent. We will face down the confusion, using the experience developed over the course of this thesis to clarify the situation.

Heterogeneous population dynamics and scaling laws near epidemic outbreaks.

PubMed

Widder, Andreas; Kuehn, Christian

2016-10-01

In this paper, we focus on the influence of heterogeneity and stochasticity of the population on the dynamical structure of a basic susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model. First we prove that, upon a suitable mathematical reformulation of the basic reproduction number, the homogeneous system and the heterogeneous system exhibit a completely analogous global behaviour. Then we consider noise terms to incorporate the fluctuation effects and the random import of the disease into the population and analyse the influence of heterogeneity on warning signs for critical transitions (or tipping points). This theory shows that one may be able to anticipate whether a bifurcation point is close before it happens. We use numerical simulations of a stochastic fast-slow heterogeneous population SIS model and show various aspects of heterogeneity have crucial influences on the scaling laws that are used as early-warning signs for the homogeneous system. Thus, although the basic structural qualitative dynamical properties are the same for both systems, the quantitative features for epidemic prediction are expected to change and care has to be taken to interpret potential warning signs for disease outbreaks correctly.

Dynamic spectral structure specifies vowels for children and adultsa

PubMed Central

Nittrouer, Susan

2008-01-01

When it comes to making decisions regarding vowel quality, adults seem to weight dynamic syllable structure more strongly than static structure, although disagreement exists over the nature of the most relevant kind of dynamic structure: spectral change intrinsic to the vowel or structure arising from movements between consonant and vowel constrictions. Results have been even less clear regarding the signal components children use in making vowel judgments. In this experiment, listeners of four different ages (adults, and 3-, 5-, and 7-year-old children) were asked to label stimuli that sounded either like steady-state vowels or like CVC syllables which sometimes had middle sections masked by coughs. Four vowel contrasts were used, crossed for type (front/back or closed/open) and consonant context (strongly or only slightly constraining of vowel tongue position). All listeners recognized vowel quality with high levels of accuracy in all conditions, but children were disproportionately hampered by strong coarticulatory effects when only steady-state formants were available. Results clarified past studies, showing that dynamic structure is critical to vowel perception for all aged listeners, but particularly for young children, and that it is the dynamic structure arising from vocal-tract movement between consonant and vowel constrictions that is most important. PMID:17902868

[Population dynamics of thrushes and seasonal resource partition].

PubMed

Burskiĭ, O V; Demidova, E Iu; Morkovin, A A

2014-01-01

We studied seasonal population dynamics in birds using four thrush species from the Yenisei middle taiga region as an example. Long-term data on bird route censuses, capture-mark-recapture, and nest observa- tions were incorporated in the analysis. Particularly, methodological problems that complicate a direct comparison between assessed numbers at different phases of the annual cycle are considered. The integrated analysis of the results allowed comparing changes in numbers, energy expenditure, age structure, migrating status, and density distribution of selected populations during the snowless period and relating them to seasonal changes in food resource abundance. Thrush population numbers within the breeding range, and their energy consumption in the Yenisei middle taiga proportionately reflect the seasonal change in abundance of food resources. The compliance between resource intake and carrying capacity of the environment is attained by: timing of arrival and departure regarding to the species' range of tolerance; change in numbers as a result of reproduction and mortality; change in numbers due to habitat changes and long-distance movements; increasing energetic expenditures during reproduction and molt; timing, intensity and replication of nesting attempts; timing of molt and proportion of molting individuals in a population; individual variations of the annual cycle. Reproductive growth of local bird populations is not fast enough to catch up with seasonal growth of ecosystems productivity. Superabundance of invertebrates at the peak of the season offers a temporal niche which, on the one hand, is suitable for species capable of diet switching, while, on the other hand, may be used by specialized consumers, namely tropical migrants for whom, at high resource level, a shortened breeding period suffices.

Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

DOE PAGES

Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

2015-09-14

Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g.more » by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.« less

Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g.more » by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.« less

Considering transient population dynamics in the conservation of slow life-history species: An application to the sandhill crane

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.

2016-01-01

The importance of transient dynamics of structured populations is increasingly recognized in ecology, yet these implications are not largely considered in conservation practices. We investigate transient and long-term population dynamics to demonstrate the process and utility of incorporating transient dynamics into conservation research and to better understand the population management of slow life-history species; these species can be theoretically highly sensitive to short- and long-term transient effects. We are specifically interested in the effects of anthropogenic removal of individuals from populations, such as caused by harvest, poaching, translocation, or incidental take. We use the sandhill crane (Grus canadensis) as an exemplar species; it is long-lived, has low reproduction, late maturity, and multiple populations are subject to sport harvest. We found sandhill cranes to have extremely high potential, but low likelihood for transient dynamics, even when the population is being harvested. The typically low population growth rate of slow life-history species appears to buffer against many perturbations causing large transient effects. Transient dynamics will dominate population trajectories of these species when stage structures are highly biased towards the younger and non-reproducing individuals, a situation that may be rare in established populations of long-lived animals. However, short-term transient population growth can be highly sensitive to vital rates that are relatively insensitive under equilibrium, suggesting that stage structure should be known if perturbation analysis is used to identify effective conservation strategies. For populations of slow life-history species that are not prone to large perturbations to their most productive individuals, population growth may be approximated by equilibrium dynamics.

Standard Populations (Millions) for Age-Adjustment - SEER Population Datasets

Cancer.gov

Download files containing standard population data for use in statististical software. The files contain the same data distributed with SEER*Stat software. You can also view the standard populations, either 19 age groups or single ages.

Uncovering the Detailed Structure and Dynamics of Andromeda's Complex Stellar Disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorman, Claire; Guhathakurta, Puragra; Seth, Anil; Dalcanton, Julianne; Widrow, Larry; Splash Team, Phat Team

2015-01-01

Lambda cold dark matter (LCDM) cosmology predicts that the disks of Milky Way-mass galaxies should have undergone at least one merger with a large (mass ratio 1:10) satellite in the last several Gyr. However, the stellar disk in the solar neighborhood of the Milky Way is too thin and dynamically cold to have experienced such an impact. The dynamics of the nearby Andromeda galaxy can serve as a second data point, and help us understand whether the Milky Way may simply have had an unusually quiescent merger history, or whether LCDM theory needs to be revisited. Over the last few years, we have carried out a detailed study of the resolved stellar populations in the disk of the Andromeda galaxy using data from two surveys: six-filter Hubble Space Telescope photometry from the recently-completed Panchromatic Hubble Andromeda Treasury (PHAT) survey, and radial velocities derived from Keck/DEIMOS optical spectra obtained as part of the Spectroscopic and Photometric Landscape of Andromeda's Stellar Halo (SPLASH) program. These detailed, multidimensional data sets allow us to decouple the structural subcomponents and characterize them individually. We find that an old, dynamically hot (velocity dispersion ~150 km/s) RGB population extends out to 20 kpc (the edge of the visible disk) but has a disk-like surface brightness profile and luminosity function. This population may have originated in the disk but been kicked out subsequently in impacts with satellite galaxies. We also study the kinematics of the disk as a function of the age of stellar tracers, and find a direct correlation between age and velocity dispersion, indicating that Andromeda has undergone a continuous heating or disk settling process throughout its lifetime. Overall, both the velocity dispersion of Andromeda's disk and the slope of the velocity dispersion vs. stellar age curve are several times those of the Milky Way's, suggesting a more active merger history more in line with LCDM cosmological

Existence and uniqueness, attraction for stochastic age-structured population systems with diffusion and Poisson jump

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Huabin

2013-08-01

In this paper, the problems about the existence and uniqueness, attraction for strong solution of stochastic age-structured population systems with diffusion and Poisson jump are considered. Under the non-Lipschitz condition with the Lipschitz condition being considered as a special case, the existence and uniqueness for such systems is firstly proved by using the Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequality (B-D-G inequality) and Itô's formula. And then by using a novel inequality technique, some sufficient conditions ensuring the existence for the domain of attraction are established. As another by-product, the exponential stability in mean square moment of strong solution for such systems can be also discussed.

Age and sex alone are insufficient to predict human rib structural response to dynamic A-P loading.

PubMed

Schafman, Michelle A; Kang, Yun-Seok; Moorhouse, Kevin; White, Susan E; Bolte, John H; Agnew, Amanda M

2016-10-03

Thoracic injuries from motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) are common in children and the elderly and are associated with a high rate of mortality for both groups. Rib fractures, in particular, are linked to high mortality rates which increase with the number of fractures sustained. Anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs) and computational models have been developed to improve vehicle safety, however these tools are constructed based on limited physical datasets. To-date, no study has explored variation of rib structural properties across the entire age spectrum with data obtained using the same experimental methodology to allow for comparison. One-hundred eighty-four ribs from 93 post mortem human subjects (PMHS) (70 male, 23 female; ages 4-99) were subjected to dynamic bending tests simulating a frontal impact to the thorax. Structural mechanical properties were calculated and a multi-level statistical model quantified the sample variance as explained by age and sex. Displacement (δ X ), peak force (F peak ), linear structural stiffness (K), energy absorption to fracture (U tot ), and plastic properties including post-yield energy absorption (U Pl ), plastic displacement (δ Pl ), and the ratio of elastic to secant stiffness (K-ratio) all showed negative relationships with age, while only F peak , K, and U tot were dependent on sex. Despite these relationships being statistically significant, only 7-39% of variance is explained by age and only 3-17% of variance is explained by sex. This demonstrates that variability in bone properties is more complex than simply chronological age- and sex-dependence and should be explored in the context of biological mechanisms instead. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Latitudinal variation in population structure of wintering Pacific Black Brant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schamber, J.L.; Sedinger, J.S.; Ward, D.H.; Hagmeier, K.R.

2007-01-01

Latitudinal variation in population structure during the winter has been reported in many migratory birds, but has been documented in few species of waterfowl. Variation in environmental and social conditions at wintering sites can potentially influence the population dynamics of differential migrants. We examined latitudinal variation in sex and age classes of wintering Pacific Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans). Brant are distributed along a wide latitudinal gradient from Alaska to Mexico during the winter. Accordingly, migration distances for brant using different wintering locations are highly variable and winter settlement patterns are likely associated with a spatially variable food resource. We used resightings of brant banded in southwestern Alaska to examine sex and age ratios of birds wintering at Boundary Bay in British Columbia, and at San Quintin Bay, Ojo de Liebre Lagoon, and San Ignacio Lagoon in Baja California from 1998 to 2000. Sex ratios were similar among wintering locations for adults and were consistent with the mating strategy of geese. The distribution of juveniles varied among wintering areas, with greater proportions of juveniles observed at northern (San Quintin Bay and Ojo de Liebre Lagoon) than at southern (San Ignacio Lagoon) locations in Baja California. We suggest that age-related variation in the winter distribution of Pacific Black Brant is mediated by variation in productivity among individuals at different wintering locations and by social interactions among wintering family groups.

Implications of an ageing population in the Asian context.

PubMed

Suyono, H

1999-12-01

Population aging is the increasing number and proportion of old persons aged 60 years and above in the developing countries and 65 years and above in the developed countries that exceeds 10% of the total population. In Asia, the last decade of the 20th century is marked by significant changes in the age structure due to the process of population aging. The implications of this aging population on the life of Asian countries has to be addressed since demographically the current situation is changing rapidly and there lie the future challenges that have to be answered. Due to the growing size of the elderly population, Asia will need better plans to prevent these elderly groups from turning into the socioeconomically vulnerable group of society. However, many governments are not prepared with effective policies, programs, and services that are particularly designed to care for the elderly. The provision of infrastructure and services, including education, employment, health and housing are necessary steps that need to be taken. Some of the suggested measures include: the Social Safety Net Programs; the implementation of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Plan of Action on Rural Development and Poverty Eradication; and strengthen volunteerism and the role of private sector in human development. The role of the media in transmitting information concerning policies and programs intended to increase the welfare of the older persons is also very important.

Oral medicine and the ageing population.

PubMed

Yap, T; McCullough, M

2015-03-01

The oral cavity is subject to age related processes such as cellular ageing and immunosenescence. The ageing population bears an increased burden of intraoral pathology. In oral medicine, the majority of presenting patients are in their fifth to seventh decade of life. In this review, we discuss the ageing population's susceptibility to mucosal disorders and the increased prevalence of potentially malignant disorders and oral squamous cell carcinoma, as well as dermatoses including oral lichen planus and immunobullous conditions. We also address the ageing population's susceptibility to oral discomfort and explore salivary secretion, ulceration and the symptoms of oral burning. Finally, we will describe orofacial pain conditions which are more likely encountered in an older population. This update highlights clinical presentations which are more likely to be encountered in the ageing population in a general practice setting and the importance of screening both new and long-term patients. © 2015 Australian Dental Association.

Age and sex bias in the reconstruction of past population structures.

PubMed

Bello, Silvia M; Thomann, Aminte; Signoli, Michel; Dutour, Olivier; Andrews, Peter

2006-01-01

Palaeodemographical studies are founded on the assumption that the sex and age distribution of the skeletal sample reflects the constitution of the original population. It is becoming increasingly clear, however, that the type and amount of information that may be derived from osteoarchaeological collections are related to the state of preservation of remains. This work proposes a new method to evaluate bone preservation, to identify age and sex biases in the preservation of human skeletal remains, and to assess whether differences in preservation patterns are more dependent on factors intrinsic or extrinsic to anatomical features of human bones. Three osteological collections and over 600 skeletons were observed. The state of preservation of human bones was assessed using three preservation indexes: the anatomical preservation index (API), the bone representation index (BRI), and the qualitative bone index (QBI). The results suggest that subadult skeletons are generally more poorly preserved and with bones less well-represented than adult skeletons. Among subadults, female and male skeletons have different patterns of preservation according to their age. This pattern of preservation depends on intrinsic anatomical properties of bones themselves, while external factors can only increase these differences in the state of preservation and representation of osseous remains. It is concluded from this that failure to recognize these differences may lead to misleading interpretations of paleodemography of past human populations.

Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations.

PubMed

Fournié, Guillaume; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Bendrey, Robin

2017-02-01

Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella . Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis , the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen.

Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, Dirk U.; Bendrey, Robin

2017-01-01

Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella. Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis, the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen. PMID:28386446

Population models for passerine birds: structure, parameterization, and analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Noon, B.R.; Sauer, J.R.; McCullough, D.R.; Barrett, R.H.

1992-01-01

Population models have great potential as management tools, as they use infonnation about the life history of a species to summarize estimates of fecundity and survival into a description of population change. Models provide a framework for projecting future populations, determining the effects of management decisions on future population dynamics, evaluating extinction probabilities, and addressing a variety of questions of ecological and evolutionary interest. Even when insufficient information exists to allow complete identification of the model, the modelling procedure is useful because it forces the investigator to consider the life history of the species when determining what parameters should be estimated from field studies and provides a context for evaluating the relative importance of demographic parameters. Models have been little used in the study of the population dynamics of passerine birds because of: (1) widespread misunderstandings of the model structures and parameterizations, (2) a lack of knowledge of life histories of many species, (3) difficulties in obtaining statistically reliable estimates of demographic parameters for most passerine species, and (4) confusion about functional relationships among demographic parameters. As a result, studies of passerine demography are often designed inappropriately and fail to provide essential data. We review appropriate models for passerine bird populations and illustrate their possible uses in evaluating the effects of management or other environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify parameters that must be estimated from field data, briefly review existing statistical methods for obtaining valid estimates, and evaluate the present status of knowledge of these parameters.

Relations between habitat variability and population dynamics of bass in the Huron River, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bovee, Ken D.; Newcomb, Tammy J.; Coon, Thomas G.

1994-01-01

One of the assumption of the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM) is that the dynamics of fish populations are directly or indirectly related to habitat availability. Because this assumption has not been successfully tested in coolwater streams, questions arise regarding the validity of the methodology in such streams. The purpose of our study was to determine whether relations existed between habitat availability and population dynamics of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) and rock bass (Ambloplites rupestris) in a 16-km reach of the Huron River in southeastern Michigan. Both species exhibited strong to moderate carryover of year classes from age 0 through age 2, indicating that adult populations were related to factors affecting recruitment. Year-class strength and subsequent numbers of yearling bass were related to the availability of young-of-year habitat during the first growing season for a cohort. Number of age-0, age-1, and adult smallmouth bass were related to the average length at age 0 for the cohort. Length at age 0 was associated with young-of-year habitat and thermal regime during the first growing season. Rock bass populations exhibited similar associations among age classes and habitat variables. Compared to smallmouth bass, the number of age-2 rock bass was associated more closely with their length at age 0 than with year-class strength. Length at age 0 and year-class strength of rock bass were associated with the same habitat variables as those related to age-0 smallmouth bass. We hypothesize that an energetic mechanism linked thermal regime to length at age 0 and that increased growth resulted in higher survival rates from age 0 to age 1. We also postulate that young-of-year habitat provided protection from predators, higher production of food resources, and increased foraging efficiency. We conclude that the IFIM is a valid methodology for instream flow investigations of coolwater streams. The results for our study support the

[Age dynamics of genetic variation in an isolated population of chalk pine Pinus sylvestris var. cretacea Kalenicz. ex Kom. from Donbass].

PubMed

Korshikov, I I; Mudrik, E A

2006-05-01

Based on analysis of variation at ten allozyme loci in three age groups (25-35, 40-80, and more than 100 years of age) of plants and in seed embryos, demographic dynamics of the gene pools was studied in a small (60.5 ha) isolated relict population of chalk pine Pinus sylvestris var. cretacea Kalenicz. ex Kom. from the steppe zone of Ukraine. The observed grenotype proportions in these tree groups were shown to fit Hardy-Weinberg expectations, while in the embryos of their seeds, an excess of homozygotes was observed at five to nine loci. The mean observed heterozygosity in the sample of old (> 100 years of age) trees (H(O) = 0.225) was substantially lower than in trees of the two other age groups (H(O) = 0.307; 0.311), but significantly higher than in the corresponding embryo samples (H(O) = 0.183-0.207). No allele and genotype heterogeneity of the maternal trees and embryos of their seeds was found. However, heterogeneity was high when the progeny of trees of different ages, particularly in pairs with old trees, were compared.

Age-structured gametocyte allocation links immunity to epidemiology in malaria parasites.

PubMed

Paul, Richard E; Bonnet, Sarah; Boudin, Christian; Tchuinkam, Timoleon; Robert, Vincent

2007-09-12

Despite a long history of attempts to model malaria epidemiology, the over-riding conclusion is that a detailed understanding of host-parasite interactions leading to immunity is required. It is still not known what governs the duration of an infection and how within-human parasite dynamics relate to malaria epidemiology. Immunity to Plasmodium falciparum develops slowly and requires repeated exposure to the parasite, which thus generates age-structure in the host-parasite interaction. An age-structured degree of immunity would present the parasite with humans of highly variable quality. Evolutionary theory suggests that natural selection will mould adaptive phenotypes that are more precise (less variant) in "high quality" habitats, where lifetime reproductive success is best. Variability in malaria parasite gametocyte density is predicted to be less variable in those age groups who best infect mosquitoes. Thus, the extent to which variation in gametocyte density is a simple parasite phenotype reflecting the complex within-host parasite dynamics is addressed. Gametocyte densities and corresponding infectiousness to mosquitoes from published data sets and studies in both rural and urban Cameroon are analysed. The mean and variation in gametocyte density according to age group are considered and compared with transmission success (proportion of mosquitoes infected). Across a wide range of settings endemic for malaria, the age group that infected most mosquitoes had the least variation in gametocyte density, i.e. there was a significant relationship between the variance rather than the mean gametocyte density and age-specific parasite transmission success. In these settings, the acquisition of immunity over time was evident as a decrease in asexual parasite densities with age. By contrast, in an urban setting, there were no such age-structured relationships either with variation in gametocyte density or asexual parasite density. Gametocyte production is seemingly

Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.

2015-01-01

Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.

Understanding Past Population Dynamics: Bayesian Coalescent-Based Modeling with Covariates

PubMed Central

Gill, Mandev S.; Lemey, Philippe; Bennett, Shannon N.; Biek, Roman; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Effective population size characterizes the genetic variability in a population and is a parameter of paramount importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. Kingman’s coalescent process enables inference of past population dynamics directly from molecular sequence data, and researchers have developed a number of flexible coalescent-based models for Bayesian nonparametric estimation of the effective population size as a function of time. Major goals of demographic reconstruction include identifying driving factors of effective population size, and understanding the association between the effective population size and such factors. Building upon Bayesian nonparametric coalescent-based approaches, we introduce a flexible framework that incorporates time-varying covariates that exploit Gaussian Markov random fields to achieve temporal smoothing of effective population size trajectories. To approximate the posterior distribution, we adapt efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms designed for highly structured Gaussian models. Incorporating covariates into the demographic inference framework enables the modeling of associations between the effective population size and covariates while accounting for uncertainty in population histories. Furthermore, it can lead to more precise estimates of population dynamics. We apply our model to four examples. We reconstruct the demographic history of raccoon rabies in North America and find a significant association with the spatiotemporal spread of the outbreak. Next, we examine the effective population size trajectory of the DENV-4 virus in Puerto Rico along with viral isolate count data and find similar cyclic patterns. We compare the population history of the HIV-1 CRF02_AG clade in Cameroon with HIV incidence and prevalence data and find that the effective population size is more reflective of incidence rate. Finally, we explore the hypothesis that the population dynamics of musk ox during the Late

White noise and synchronization shaping the age structure of the human population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cebrat, Stanislaw; Biecek, Przemyslaw; Bonkowska, Katarzyna; Kula, Mateusz

2007-06-01

We have modified the standard diploid Penna model of ageing in such a way that instead of threshold of defective loci resulting in genetic death of individuals, the fluctuation of environment and "personal" fluctuations of individuals were introduced. The sum of the both fluctuations describes the health status of the individual. While environmental fluctuations are the same for all individuals in the population, the personal component of fluctuations is composed of fluctuations corresponding to each physiological function (gene, genetic locus). It is rather accepted hypothesis that physiological parameters of any organism fluctuate highly nonlinearly. Transition to the synchronized behaviors could be a very strong diagnostic signal of the life threatening disorder. Thus, in our model, mutations of genes change the chaotic fluctuations representing the function of a wild gene to the synchronized signals generated by mutated genes. Genes are switched on chronologically, like in the standard Penna model. Accumulation of defective genes predicted by Medawar's theory of ageing leads to the replacement of uncorrelated white noise corresponding to the healthy organism by the correlated signals of defective functions. As a result we have got the age distribution of population corresponding to the human demographic data.

Neural Population Dynamics during Reaching Are Better Explained by a Dynamical System than Representational Tuning

PubMed Central

Dann, Benjamin

2016-01-01

Recent models of movement generation in motor cortex have sought to explain neural activity not as a function of movement parameters, known as representational models, but as a dynamical system acting at the level of the population. Despite evidence supporting this framework, the evaluation of representational models and their integration with dynamical systems is incomplete in the literature. Using a representational velocity-tuning based simulation of center-out reaching, we show that incorporating variable latency offsets between neural activity and kinematics is sufficient to generate rotational dynamics at the level of neural populations, a phenomenon observed in motor cortex. However, we developed a covariance-matched permutation test (CMPT) that reassigns neural data between task conditions independently for each neuron while maintaining overall neuron-to-neuron relationships, revealing that rotations based on the representational model did not uniquely depend on the underlying condition structure. In contrast, rotations based on either a dynamical model or motor cortex data depend on this relationship, providing evidence that the dynamical model more readily explains motor cortex activity. Importantly, implementing a recurrent neural network we demonstrate that both representational tuning properties and rotational dynamics emerge, providing evidence that a dynamical system can reproduce previous findings of representational tuning. Finally, using motor cortex data in combination with the CMPT, we show that results based on small numbers of neurons or conditions should be interpreted cautiously, potentially informing future experimental design. Together, our findings reinforce the view that representational models lack the explanatory power to describe complex aspects of single neuron and population level activity. PMID:27814352

Neural Population Dynamics during Reaching Are Better Explained by a Dynamical System than Representational Tuning.

PubMed

Michaels, Jonathan A; Dann, Benjamin; Scherberger, Hansjörg

2016-11-01

Recent models of movement generation in motor cortex have sought to explain neural activity not as a function of movement parameters, known as representational models, but as a dynamical system acting at the level of the population. Despite evidence supporting this framework, the evaluation of representational models and their integration with dynamical systems is incomplete in the literature. Using a representational velocity-tuning based simulation of center-out reaching, we show that incorporating variable latency offsets between neural activity and kinematics is sufficient to generate rotational dynamics at the level of neural populations, a phenomenon observed in motor cortex. However, we developed a covariance-matched permutation test (CMPT) that reassigns neural data between task conditions independently for each neuron while maintaining overall neuron-to-neuron relationships, revealing that rotations based on the representational model did not uniquely depend on the underlying condition structure. In contrast, rotations based on either a dynamical model or motor cortex data depend on this relationship, providing evidence that the dynamical model more readily explains motor cortex activity. Importantly, implementing a recurrent neural network we demonstrate that both representational tuning properties and rotational dynamics emerge, providing evidence that a dynamical system can reproduce previous findings of representational tuning. Finally, using motor cortex data in combination with the CMPT, we show that results based on small numbers of neurons or conditions should be interpreted cautiously, potentially informing future experimental design. Together, our findings reinforce the view that representational models lack the explanatory power to describe complex aspects of single neuron and population level activity.

Genetic diversity and population structure in contemporary house sparrow populations along an urbanization gradient

PubMed Central

Vangestel, C; Mergeay, J; Dawson, D A; Callens, T; Vandomme, V; Lens, L

2012-01-01

House sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have suffered major declines in urban as well as rural areas, while remaining relatively stable in suburban ones. Yet, to date no exhaustive attempt has been made to examine how, and to what extent, spatial variation in population demography is reflected in genetic population structuring along contemporary urbanization gradients. Here we use putatively neutral microsatellite loci to study if and how genetic variation can be partitioned in a hierarchical way among different urbanization classes. Principal coordinate analyses did not support the hypothesis that urban/suburban and rural populations comprise two distinct genetic clusters. Comparison of FST values at different hierarchical scales revealed drift as an important force of population differentiation. Redundancy analyses revealed that genetic structure was strongly affected by both spatial variation and level of urbanization. The results shown here can be used as baseline information for future genetic monitoring programmes and provide additional insights into contemporary house sparrow dynamics along urbanization gradients. PMID:22588131

Genetic diversity and population structure in contemporary house sparrow populations along an urbanization gradient.

PubMed

Vangestel, C; Mergeay, J; Dawson, D A; Callens, T; Vandomme, V; Lens, L

2012-09-01

House sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have suffered major declines in urban as well as rural areas, while remaining relatively stable in suburban ones. Yet, to date no exhaustive attempt has been made to examine how, and to what extent, spatial variation in population demography is reflected in genetic population structuring along contemporary urbanization gradients. Here we use putatively neutral microsatellite loci to study if and how genetic variation can be partitioned in a hierarchical way among different urbanization classes. Principal coordinate analyses did not support the hypothesis that urban/suburban and rural populations comprise two distinct genetic clusters. Comparison of FST values at different hierarchical scales revealed drift as an important force of population differentiation. Redundancy analyses revealed that genetic structure was strongly affected by both spatial variation and level of urbanization. The results shown here can be used as baseline information for future genetic monitoring programmes and provide additional insights into contemporary house sparrow dynamics along urbanization gradients.

The demographic consequences of growing older and bigger in oyster populations.

PubMed

Moore, Jacob L; Lipcius, Romuald N; Puckett, Brandon; Schreiber, Sebastian J

2016-10-01

Structured population models, particularly size- or age-structured, have a long history of informing conservation and natural resource management. While size is often easier to measure than age and is the focus of many management strategies, age-structure can have important effects on population dynamics that are not captured in size-only models. However, relatively few studies have included the simultaneous effects of both age- and size-structure. To better understand how population structure, particularly that of age and size, impacts restoration and management decisions, we developed and compared a size-structured integral projection model (IPM) and an age- and size-structured IPM, using a population of Crassostrea gigas oysters in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We analyzed sensitivity of model results across values of local retention that give populations decreasing in size to populations increasing in size. We found that age- and size-structured models yielded the best fit to the demographic data and provided more reliable results about long-term demography. Elasticity analysis showed that population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in the survival of both large (>175 mm shell length) and small (<75 mm shell length) oysters, indicating that a maximum size limit, in addition to a minimum size limit, could be an effective strategy for maintaining a sustainable population. In contrast, the purely size-structured model did not detect the importance of large individuals. Finally, patterns in stable age and stable size distributions differed between populations decreasing in size due to limited local retention and populations increasing in size due to high local retention. These patterns can be used to determine population status and restoration success. The methodology described here provides general insight into the necessity of including both age- and size-structure into modeling frameworks when using population models to inform restoration and

Effects of Age on Dynamic Accommodation

PubMed Central

Lockhart, Thurmon E.; Shi, Wen

2010-01-01

Visual accommodation plays a critical role in one’s visual perception and activities of daily living. Age-related accommodation loss poses an increased risk to older adults’ safety and independence. Although extensive effort has been made towards understanding the effect of age on steady-state accommodation, dynamic aspects of accommodation is still unknown. A study was therefore conducted to investigate age-related dynamic accommodative characteristics utilizing a modified autorefractor. Ten individuals from each of three age groups (i.e., younger group: 20 to 29 years old, middle-aged group: 40 to 49 years old, and older group: 60 to 69 years old) were recruited and their dynamic accommodation responses were examined. The laboratory experiment was designed to assess dynamic accommodation associated with an abrupt change from a constant far target (400 cm, 50 cd/m2) to a near target (70 cm, 100 cd/m2 or 20 cd/m2), which aimed to simulate car dashboard reading behavior while driving. The results of the study indicated that age and target intensity both had a significant impact on dynamic accommodation. These effects were attributed to both the age-related physiological limitation of the eye as well as to central neural processing delay. A method of measuring dynamic accommodation and the implications of the study are discussed. PMID:20582770

Dynamical properties of the Penna aging model applied to the population of wolves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makowiec, Danuta

1997-02-01

The parameters of th Penna bit-string model of aging of biological systems are systematically tested to better understand the model itself as well as the results arising from applying this model to studies of the development of the stationary population of Alaska wolves.

The Emergence of Temporal Structures in Dynamical Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mainzer, Klaus

2010-10-01

Dynamical systems in classical, relativistic and quantum physics are ruled by laws with time reversibility. Complex dynamical systems with time-irreversibility are known from thermodynamics, biological evolution, growth of organisms, brain research, aging of people, and historical processes in social sciences. Complex systems are systems that compromise many interacting parts with the ability to generate a new quality of macroscopic collective behavior the manifestations of which are the spontaneous emergence of distinctive temporal, spatial or functional structures. But, emergence is no mystery. In a general meaning, the emergence of macroscopic features results from the nonlinear interactions of the elements in a complex system. Mathematically, the emergence of irreversible structures is modelled by phase transitions in non-equilibrium dynamics of complex systems. These methods have been modified even for chemical, biological, economic and societal applications (e.g., econophysics). Emergence of irreversible structures can also be simulated by computational systems. The question arises how the emergence of irreversible structures is compatible with the reversibility of fundamental physical laws. It is argued that, according to quantum cosmology, cosmic evolution leads from symmetry to complexity of irreversible structures by symmetry breaking and phase transitions. Thus, arrows of time and aging processes are not only subjective experiences or even contradictions to natural laws, but they can be explained by quantum cosmology and the nonlinear dynamics of complex systems. Human experiences and religious concepts of arrows of time are considered in a modern scientific framework. Platonic ideas of eternity are at least understandable with respect to mathematical invariance and symmetry of physical laws. Heraclit’s world of change and dynamics can be mapped onto our daily real-life experiences of arrows of time.

[Age structure and genetic diversity of Homatula pycnolepis in the Nujiang River basin].

PubMed

Yue, Xing-Jian; Liu, Shao-Ping; Liu, Ming-Dian; Duan, Xin-Bin; Wang, Deng-Qiang; Chen, Da-Qing

2013-08-01

This study examined the age structure of the Loach, Homatula pycnolepis through the otolith growth rings in 204 individual specimens collected from the Xiaomengtong River of the Nujiang River (Salween River) basin in April, 2008. There were only two different age classes, 1 and 2 years of age-no 3 year olds were detected. The age structure of H. pycnolepis was simple. The complete mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b gene sequences (1140) of 80 individuals from 4 populations collected in the Nujiang River drainage were sequenced and a total of 44 variable sites were found among 4 different haplotypes. The global haplotype diversity (Hd) and nucleotide diversity (Pi) were calculated at 0.7595, 0.0151 respectively, and 0, 0 in each population, indicating a consistent lack of genetic diversity in each small population. There was obvious geographic structure in both the Nujiang River basin (NJB) group, and the Nanding River (NDR) group. The genetic distance between NJB and NDR was calculated at 0.0356, suggesting that genetic divergence resulted from long-term isolation of individual population. Such a simple age structure and a lack of genetic diversity in H. pycnolepis may potentially be due to small populations and locale fishing pressures. Accordingly, the results of this study prompt us to recommend that the NJB, NDR and Lancang River populations should be protected as three different evolutionary significant units or separated management units.

Population dynamics and climate change: what are the links?

PubMed

Stephenson, Judith; Newman, Karen; Mayhew, Susannah

2010-06-01

Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21(st) century. World population is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, with most of this growth in developing countries. While the principal cause of climate change is high consumption in the developed countries, its impact will be greatest on people in the developing world. Climate change and population can be linked through adaptation (reducing vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change) and, more controversially, through mitigation (reducing the greenhouse gases that cause climate change). The contribution of low-income, high-fertility countries to global carbon emissions has been negligible to date, but is increasing with the economic development that they need to reduce poverty. Rapid population growth endangers human development, provision of basic services and poverty eradication and weakens the capacity of poor communities to adapt to climate change. Significant mass migration is likely to occur in response to climate change and should be regarded as a legitimate response to the effects of climate change. Linking population dynamics with climate change is a sensitive issue, but family planning programmes that respect and protect human rights can bring a remarkable range of benefits. Population dynamics have not been integrated systematically into climate change science. The contribution of population growth, migration, urbanization, ageing and household composition to mitigation and adaptation programmes needs urgent investigation.

Predicting age from cortical structure across the lifespan.

PubMed

Madan, Christopher R; Kensinger, Elizabeth A

2018-03-01

Despite interindividual differences in cortical structure, cross-sectional and longitudinal studies have demonstrated a large degree of population-level consistency in age-related differences in brain morphology. This study assessed how accurately an individual's age could be predicted by estimates of cortical morphology, comparing a variety of structural measures, including thickness, gyrification and fractal dimensionality. Structural measures were calculated across up to seven different parcellation approaches, ranging from one region to 1000 regions. The age prediction framework was trained using morphological measures obtained from T1-weighted MRI volumes collected from multiple sites, yielding a training dataset of 1056 healthy adults, aged 18-97. Age predictions were calculated using a machine-learning approach that incorporated nonlinear differences over the lifespan. In two independent, held-out test samples, age predictions had a median error of 6-7 years. Age predictions were best when using a combination of cortical metrics, both thickness and fractal dimensionality. Overall, the results reveal that age-related differences in brain structure are systematic enough to enable reliable age prediction based on metrics of cortical morphology. © 2018 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Relationship of tooth wear to chronological age among indigenous Amazon populations.

PubMed

Vieira, Elma Pinto; Barbosa, Mayara Silva; Quintão, Cátia Cardoso Abdo; Normando, David

2015-01-01

In indigenous populations, age can be estimated based on family structure and physical examination. However, the accuracy of such methods is questionable. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to evaluate occlusal tooth wear related to estimated age in the remote indigenous populations of the Xingu River, Amazon. Two hundred and twenty three semi-isolated indigenous subjects with permanent dentition from the Arara (n = 117), Xicrin-Kayapó (n = 60) and Assurini (n = 46) villages were examined. The control group consisted of 40 non-indigenous individuals living in an urban area in the Amazon basin (Belem). A modified tooth wear index was applied and then associated with chronological age by linear regression analysis. A strong association was found between tooth wear and chronological age in the indigenous populations (p <0.001). Tooth wear measurements were able to explain 86% of the variation in the ages of the Arara sample, 70% of the Xicrin-Kaiapó sample and 65% of the Assurini sample. In the urban control sample, only 12% of ages could be determined by tooth wear. These findings suggest that tooth wear is a poor estimator of chronological age in the urban population; however, it has a strong association with age for the more remote indigenous populations. Consequently, these findings suggest that a simple tooth wear evaluation method, as described and applied in this study, can be used to provide a straightforward and efficient means to assist in age determination of newly contacted indigenous groups.

11 CFR 110.18 - Voting age population.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 11 Federal Elections 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Voting age population. 110.18 Section 110.18... PROHIBITIONS § 110.18 Voting age population. There is annually published by the Department of Commerce in the Federal Register an estimate of the voting age population based on an estimate of the voting age...

11 CFR 110.18 - Voting age population.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 11 Federal Elections 1 2013-01-01 2012-01-01 true Voting age population. 110.18 Section 110.18... PROHIBITIONS § 110.18 Voting age population. There is annually published by the Department of Commerce in the Federal Register an estimate of the voting age population based on an estimate of the voting age...

11 CFR 110.18 - Voting age population.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 11 Federal Elections 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Voting age population. 110.18 Section 110.18... PROHIBITIONS § 110.18 Voting age population. There is annually published by the Department of Commerce in the Federal Register an estimate of the voting age population based on an estimate of the voting age...

11 CFR 110.18 - Voting age population.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 11 Federal Elections 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Voting age population. 110.18 Section 110.18... PROHIBITIONS § 110.18 Voting age population. There is annually published by the Department of Commerce in the Federal Register an estimate of the voting age population based on an estimate of the voting age...

Social and Population Structure in the Ant Cataglyphis emmae

PubMed Central

Jowers, Michael J.; Leniaud, Laurianne; Cerdá, Xim; Alasaad, Samer; Caut, Stephane; Amor, Fernando; Aron, Serge; Boulay, Raphaël R.

2013-01-01

Dispersal has consequences not only for individual fitness, but also for population dynamics, population genetics and species distribution. Social Hymenoptera show two contrasting colony reproductive strategies, dependent and independent colony foundation modes, and these are often associated to the population structures derived from inter and intra-population gene flow processes conditioned by alternative dispersal strategies. Here we employ microsatellite and mitochondrial markers to investigate the population and social genetic structure and dispersal patterns in the ant Cataglyphis emmae at both, local and regional scales. We find that C. emmae is monogynous and polyandrous. Lack of detection of any population viscosity and population structure with nuclear markers at the local scale suggests efficient dispersal, in agreement with a lack of inbreeding. Contrasting demographic differences before and during the mating seasons suggest that C. emmae workers raise sexuals in peripheric nest chambers to reduce intracolonial conflicts. The high genetic differentiation recovered from the mtDNA haplotypes, together with the significant correlation of such to geographic distance, and presence of new nuclear alleles between areas (valleys) suggest long-term historical isolation between these regions, indicative of limited dispersal at the regional scale. Our findings on the ecological, social and population structure of this species increases our understanding of the patterns and processes involved under independent colony foundation. PMID:24039827

Approaching the molecular origins of collective dynamics in oscillating cell populations

PubMed Central

Mehta, Pankaj; Gregor, Thomas

2011-01-01

From flocking birds, to organ generation, to swarming bacterial colonies, biological systems often exhibit collective behaviors. Here, we review recent advances in our understanding of collective dynamics in cell populations. We argue that understanding population-level oscillations requires examining the system under consideration at three different levels of complexity: at the level of isolated cells, homogenous populations, and spatially structured populations. We discuss the experimental and theoretical challenges this poses and highlight how new experimental techniques, when combined with conceptual tools adapted from physics, may help us overcome these challenges. PMID:20934869

Investigating the Genetic Diversity, Population Differentiation and Population Dynamics of Cycas segmentifida (Cycadaceae) Endemic to Southwest China by Multiple Molecular Markers

PubMed Central

Feng, Xiuyan; Liu, Jian; Chiang, Yu-Chung; Gong, Xun

2017-01-01

Climate change, species dispersal ability and habitat fragmentation are major factors influencing species distribution and genetic diversity, especially for the range-restricted and threatened taxa. Here, using four sequences of chloroplast DNAs (cpDNAs), three nuclear genes (nDNAs) and 12 nuclear microsatellites (SSRs), we investigated the genetic diversity, genetic structure, divergence time and population dynamics of Cycas segmentifida D. Y. Wang and C. Y. Deng, a threatened cycad species endemic to Southwest China. High levels of genetic diversity and genetic differentiation were revealed in C. segmentifida. Haplotypes of networks showed two evolutionary units in C. segmentifida, with the exception of the nuclear gene GTP network. Meanwhile, the UPGMA tree, structure and PCoA analyses suggested that 14 populations of C. segmentifida were divided into two clades. There was significant effect of isolation by distance (IBD) in this species. However, this species did not display a significant phylogeographic structure. The divergence time estimation suggested that its haplotypes diverged during the Middle Pleistocene. Additionally, the population dynamics inferred from different DNA sequences analyses were discordant. Bottleneck analysis showed that populations of C. segmentifida did not experience any recent bottleneck effect, but rather pointed to a contraction of its effective population size over time. Furthermore, our results suggested that the population BM which held an intact population structure and occupied undisturbed habitat was at the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, implying that this population is a free-mating system. These genetic features provide important information for the sustainable management of C. segmentifida. PMID:28580005

Predatory senescence in ageing wolves.

PubMed

MacNulty, Daniel R; Smith, Douglas W; Vucetich, John A; Mech, L David; Stahler, Daniel R; Packer, Craig

2009-12-01

It is well established that ageing handicaps the ability of prey to escape predators, yet surprisingly little is known about how ageing affects the ability of predators to catch prey. Research into long-lived predators has assumed that adults have uniform impacts on prey regardless of age. Here we use longitudinal data from repeated observations of individually-known wolves (Canis lupus) hunting elk (Cervus elaphus) in Yellowstone National Park to demonstrate that adult predatory performance declines with age and that an increasing ratio of senescent individuals in the wolf population depresses the rate of prey offtake. Because this ratio fluctuates independently of population size, predatory senescence may cause wolf populations of equal size but different age structure to have different impacts on prey populations. These findings suggest that predatory senescence is an important, though overlooked, factor affecting predator-prey dynamics.

Predatory senescence in aging wolves

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacNulty, Daniel R.; Smith, Douglas W.; Vucetich, John A.; Mech, L. David; Stahler, Daniel R.; Packer, Craig

2009-01-01

It is well established that ageing handicaps the ability of prey to escape predators, yet surprisingly little is known about how ageing affects the ability of predators to catch prey. Research into long-lived predators has assumed that adults have uniform impacts on prey regardless of age. Here we use longitudinal data from repeated observations of individually-known wolves (Canis lupus) hunting elk (Cervus elaphus) in Yellowstone National Park to demonstrate that adult predatory performance declines with age and that an increasing ratio of senescent individuals in the wolf population depresses the rate of prey offtake. Because this ratio fluctuates independently of population size, predatory senescence may cause wolf populations of equal size but different age structure to have different impacts on prey populations. These findings suggest that predatory senescence is an important, though overlooked, factor affecting predator-prey dynamics.

Simulating the multicellular homeostasis with a cell-based discrete receptor dynamics model: The non-mutational origin of cancer and aging.

PubMed

Lou, Yuting; Chen, Yu

2016-09-07

The purpose of the study is to investigate the multicellular homeostasis in epithelial tissues over very large timescales. Inspired by the receptor dynamics of IBCell model proposed by Rejniak et al. an on-grid agent-based model for multicellular system is constructed. Instead of observing the multicellular architectural morphologies, the diversity of homeostatic states is quantitatively analyzed through a substantial number of simulations by measuring three new order parameters, the phenotypic population structure, the average proliferation age and the relaxation time to stable homeostasis. Nearby the interfaces of distinct homeostatic phases in 3D phase diagrams of the three order parameters, intermediate quasi-stable phases of slow dynamics that features quasi-stability with a large spectrum of relaxation timescales are found. A further exploration on the static and dynamic correlations among the three order parameters reveals that the quasi-stable phases evolve towards two terminations, tumorigenesis and degeneration, which are respectively accompanied by rejuvenation and aging. With the exclusion of the environmental impact and the mutational strategies, the results imply that cancer and aging may share the non-mutational origin in the intrinsic slow dynamics of the multicellular systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population dynamics on heterogeneous bacterial substrates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mobius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W.; Nelson, David R.

2012-02-01

How species invade new territories and how these range expansions influence the population's genotypes are important questions in the field of population genetics. The majority of work addressing these questions focuses on homogeneous environments. Much less is known about the population dynamics and population genetics when the environmental conditions are heterogeneous in space. To better understand range expansions in two-dimensional heterogeneous environments, we employ a system of bacteria and bacteriophage, the viruses of bacteria. Thereby, the bacteria constitute the environment in which a population of bacteriophages expands. The spread of phage constitutes itself in lysis of bacteria and thus formation of clear regions on bacterial lawns, called plaques. We study the population dynamics and genetics of the expanding page for various patterns of environments.

Random and non-random mating populations: Evolutionary dynamics in meiotic drive.

PubMed

Sarkar, Bijan

2016-01-01

Game theoretic tools are utilized to analyze a one-locus continuous selection model of sex-specific meiotic drive by considering nonequivalence of the viabilities of reciprocal heterozygotes that might be noticed at an imprinted locus. The model draws attention to the role of viability selections of different types to examine the stable nature of polymorphic equilibrium. A bridge between population genetics and evolutionary game theory has been built up by applying the concept of the Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection. In addition to pointing out the influences of male and female segregation ratios on selection, configuration structure reveals some noted results, e.g., Hardy-Weinberg frequencies hold in replicator dynamics, occurrence of faster evolution at the maximized variance fitness, existence of mixed Evolutionarily Stable Strategy (ESS) in asymmetric games, the tending evolution to follow not only a 1:1 sex ratio but also a 1:1 different alleles ratio at particular gene locus. Through construction of replicator dynamics in the group selection framework, our selection model introduces a redefining bases of game theory to incorporate non-random mating where a mating parameter associated with population structure is dependent on the social structure. Also, the model exposes the fact that the number of polymorphic equilibria will depend on the algebraic expression of population structure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

2018-05-01

In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics.

PubMed

Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

2018-05-01

In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

Phylodynamics with Migration: A Computational Framework to Quantify Population Structure from Genomic Data.

PubMed

Kühnert, Denise; Stadler, Tanja; Vaughan, Timothy G; Drummond, Alexei J

2016-08-01

When viruses spread, outbreaks can be spawned in previously unaffected regions. Depending on the time and mode of introduction, each regional outbreak can have its own epidemic dynamics. The migration and phylodynamic processes are often intertwined and need to be taken into account when analyzing temporally and spatially structured virus data. In this article, we present a fully probabilistic approach for the joint reconstruction of phylodynamic history in structured populations (such as geographic structure) based on a multitype birth-death process. This approach can be used to quantify the spread of a pathogen in a structured population. Changes in epidemic dynamics through time within subpopulations are incorporated through piecewise constant changes in transmission parameters.We analyze a global human influenza H3N2 virus data set from a geographically structured host population to demonstrate how seasonal dynamics can be inferred simultaneously with the phylogeny and migration process. Our results suggest that the main migration path among the northern, tropical, and southern region represented in the sample analyzed here is the one leading from the tropics to the northern region. Furthermore, the time-dependent transmission dynamics between and within two HIV risk groups, heterosexuals and injecting drug users, in the Latvian HIV epidemic are investigated. Our analyses confirm that the Latvian HIV epidemic peaking around 2001 was mainly driven by the injecting drug user risk group. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Population genetic structure analysis and effect of inbreeding on body weights at different ages in Iranian Mehraban sheep.

PubMed

Yavarifard, Roya; Ghavi Hossein-Zadeh, Navid; Shadparvar, Abdol Ahad

2014-01-01

The objective of this study was to describe the population structure and inbreeding, and to quantify their effects on weights at different ages of Mehraban sheep in Iran. The analysis was based on the pedigree information of 26990 animals and 10278 body weight records from birth to yearling age. Data and pedigree information were collected during 1994 to 2011 by the breeding station of Mehraban sheep. The population structure was analyzed using the CFC program. Inbreeding of all animals was calculated by INBUPGF90 program. All animals were grouped into three classes according to their inbreeding coefficients: the first class included non-inbred animals (F=0); and the second and third classes included inbred animals (0population sizes (Ne) were 363, 5080 and 5740 during 1994-1999, 2000-2005 and 2006-2011, respectively. Generation interval was 2.15 years for this breed of sheep. Regression coefficients of birth weight, 3-month weight, 6-month weight and yearling weight on lamb inbreeding were estimated to be -6.34±0.69, -14.68±5.33, 48.00±9.43 and 98.65±15.65, respectively. Both positive and negative inbreeding effects were found in the current study. The utilization of a program for designed mating system, in the present flock, could be a suitable approach to keep the level of inbreeding under control.

Mammal population regulation, keystone processes and ecosystem dynamics.

PubMed Central

Sinclair, A R E

2003-01-01

The theory of regulation in animal populations is fundamental to understanding the dynamics of populations, the causes of mortality and how natural selection shapes the life history of species. In mammals, the great range in body size allows us to see how allometric relationships affect the mode of regulation. Resource limitation is the fundamental cause of regulation. Top-down limitation through predators is determined by four factors: (i). body size; (ii). the diversity of predators and prey in the system; (iii). whether prey are resident or migratory; and (iv). the presence of alternative prey for predators. Body size in mammals has two important consequences. First, mammals, particularly large species, can act as keystones that determine the diversity of an ecosystem. I show how keystone processes can, in principle, be measured using the example of the wildebeest in the Serengeti ecosystem. Second, mammals act as ecological landscapers by altering vegetation succession. Mammals alter physical structure, ecological function and species diversity in most terrestrial biomes. In general, there is a close interaction between allometry, population regulation, life history and ecosystem dynamics. These relationships are relevant to applied aspects of conservation and pest management. PMID:14561329

An age-structured model for the coupled dynamics of HIV and HSV-2.

PubMed

Kapitanov, Georgi; Alvey, Christina; Vogt-Geisse, Katia; Feng, Zhilan

2015-08-01

Evidence suggests a strong correlation between the prevalence of HSV-2 (genital herpes) and the perseverance of the HIV epidemic. HSV-2 is an incurable viral infection, characterized by periodic reactivation. We construct a model of the co-infection dynamics between the two diseases by incorporating a time-since-infection variable to track the alternating periods of infectiousness of HSV-2. The model considers only heterosexual relationships and distinguishes three population groups: males, general population females, and female sex workers. We calculate the basic reproduction numbers for each disease that provide threshold conditions, which determine whether a disease dies out or becomes endemic in the absence of the other disease. We also derive the invasion reproduction numbers that determine whether or not a disease can invade into a population in which the other disease is endemic. The calculations of the invasion reproduction numbers suggest a new aspect in their interpretation - the class from which the initial disease carrier arises is important for understanding the invasion dynamics and biological interpretation of the expressions of the reproduction numbers. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the role of model parameters in influencing the model outcomes. The results are discussed in the last section.

Relationship of Tooth Wear to Chronological Age among Indigenous Amazon Populations

PubMed Central

Vieira, Elma Pinto; Barbosa, Mayara Silva; Quintão, Cátia Cardoso Abdo; Normando, David

2015-01-01

In indigenous populations, age can be estimated based on family structure and physical examination. However, the accuracy of such methods is questionable. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to evaluate occlusal tooth wear related to estimated age in the remote indigenous populations of the Xingu River, Amazon. Two hundred and twenty three semi-isolated indigenous subjects with permanent dentition from the Arara (n = 117), Xicrin-Kayapó (n = 60) and Assurini (n = 46) villages were examined. The control group consisted of 40 non-indigenous individuals living in an urban area in the Amazon basin (Belem). A modified tooth wear index was applied and then associated with chronological age by linear regression analysis. A strong association was found between tooth wear and chronological age in the indigenous populations (p <0.001). Tooth wear measurements were able to explain 86% of the variation in the ages of the Arara sample, 70% of the Xicrin-Kaiapó sample and 65% of the Assurini sample. In the urban control sample, only 12% of ages could be determined by tooth wear. These findings suggest that tooth wear is a poor estimator of chronological age in the urban population; however, it has a strong association with age for the more remote indigenous populations. Consequently, these findings suggest that a simple tooth wear evaluation method, as described and applied in this study, can be used to provide a straightforward and efficient means to assist in age determination of newly contacted indigenous groups. PMID:25602501

An individual-based model of zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics.

PubMed

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R R

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level.

Modeling the population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culcidae), along an elevational gradient in Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahumada, Jorge A.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

2004-01-01

We present a population model to understand the effects of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, along an elevational gradient in Hawaii. We use a novel approach to model the effects of temperature on population growth by dynamically incorporating developmental rate into the transition matrix, by using physiological ages of immatures instead of chronological age or stages. We also model the effects of rainfall on survival of immatures as the cumulative number of days below a certain rain threshold. Finally, we incorporate density dependence into the model as competition between immatures within breeding sites. Our model predicts the upper altitudinal distributions of Cx. quinquefasciatus on the Big Island of Hawaii for self-sustaining mosquito and migrating summer sink populations at 1,475 and 1,715 m above sea level, respectively. Our model predicts that mosquitoes at lower elevations can grow under a broader range of rainfall parameters than middle and high elevation populations. Density dependence in conjunction with the seasonal forcing imposed by temperature and rain creates cycles in the dynamics of the population that peak in the summer and early fall. The model provides a reasonable fit to the available data on mosquito abundance for the east side of Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The predictions of our model indicate the importance of abiotic conditions on mosquito dynamics and have important implications for the management of diseases transmitted by Cx. quinquefasciatus in Hawaii and elsewhere.

Disease-emergence dynamics and control in a socially-structured wildlife species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pepin, Kim M.; Vercauteren, Kurt C.

2016-04-01

Once a pathogen is introduced in a population, key factors governing rate of spread include contact structure, supply of susceptible individuals and pathogen life-history. We examined the interplay of these factors on emergence dynamics and efficacy of disease prevention and response. We contrasted transmission dynamics of livestock viruses with different life-histories in hypothetical populations of feral swine with different contact structures (homogenous, metapopulation, spatial and network). Persistence probability was near 0 for the FMDV-like case under a wide range of parameter values and contact structures, while persistence was probable for the CSFV-like case. There were no sets of conditions where the FMDV-like pathogen persisted in every stochastic simulation. Even when population growth rates were up to 300% annually, the FMDV-like pathogen persisted in <25% of simulations regardless of transmission probabilities and contact structure. For networks and spatial contact structure, persistence probability of the FMDV-like pathogen was always <10%. Because of its low persistence probability, even very early response to the FMDV-like pathogen in feral swine was unwarranted while response to the CSFV-like pathogen was generally effective. When pre-emergence culling of feral swine caused population declines, it was effective at decreasing outbreak size of both diseases by ≥80%.

Influence of climatic variability on local population dynamics of a Sonoran Desert platyopuntia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, Janice E.

2005-01-01

Age-based population dynamics of Opuntia engelmannii, a shrubby cactus with flattened cladodes, were investigated at a Sonoran Desert site protected from grazing since 1907. Demographic statistics were determined from births and deaths on six permanent vegetation plots mapped four times between 1968 and 2001. Moderate longevity (13-56 years) and modest per capita annual survival (0.9298) were associated with fairly rapid turnover; cycles of population growth and decline were thus evident over relatively short periods. Age-frequency distribution, determined for subpopulations in two neighboring habitats in 1996 and 2003, was used to calculate residual regeneration, an index of the difference between observed cohort size and idealized survivorship. Establishment peaks occurred in the late 1970s, the mid-1980s, and the early to mid-1990s and coincided with increased winter moisture in the years before germination, ample summer rain in the year of germination, and decreased drought in the years after germination, reflecting favorable conditions for fruit production, seed germination, and seedling survival. Regionally, pulses and gaps in establishment coincide with the frequency and amplitude of large-scale climatic phenomena that affect cycles of moisture and drought on decadal and interdecadal scales. Because of local factors, however, subpopulations within a few km of one another can experience virtually identical climates yet differ strikingly in age structure and density. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Living in the branches: population dynamics and ecological processes in dendritic networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, E.H.C.; Lowe, W.H.; Fagan, W.F.

2007-01-01

Spatial structure regulates and modifies processes at several levels of ecological organization (e.g. individual/genetic, population and community) and is thus a key component of complex systems, where knowledge at a small scale can be insufficient for understanding system behaviour at a larger scale. Recent syntheses outline potential applications of network theory to ecological systems, but do not address the implications of physical structure for network dynamics. There is a specific need to examine how dendritic habitat structure, such as that found in stream, hedgerow and cave networks, influences ecological processes. Although dendritic networks are one type of ecological network, they are distinguished by two fundamental characteristics: (1) both the branches and the nodes serve as habitat, and (2) the specific spatial arrangement and hierarchical organization of these elements interacts with a species' movement behaviour to alter patterns of population distribution and abundance, and community interactions. Here, we summarize existing theory relating to ecological dynamics in dendritic networks, review empirical studies examining the population- and community-level consequences of these networks, and suggest future research integrating spatial pattern and processes in dendritic systems.

Dynamics and structure of an aging binary colloidal glass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, Jennifer M.; Cianci, Gianguido C.; Weeks, Eric R.

2008-09-01

We study aging in a colloidal suspension consisting of micron-sized particles in a liquid. This system is made glassy by increasing the particle concentration. We observe samples composed of particles of two sizes, with a size ratio of 1:2.1 and a volume fraction ratio 1:6, using fast laser scanning confocal microscopy. This technique yields real-time, three-dimensional movies deep inside the colloidal glass. Specifically, we look at how the size, motion, and structural organization of the particles relate to the overall aging of the glass. Particles move in spatially heterogeneous cooperative groups. These mobile regions tend to be richer in small particles, and these small particles facilitate the motion of nearby particles of both sizes.

Assessing the effects of catch and release regulations on a quality adfluvial brook trout population using a computer based age-structure model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, Casey A.L.; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2011-01-01

Assessing the Effects of Catch-and-Release Regulations on a Brook Trout Population Using an Age-Structured Model: North American Journal of Fisheries Management: Vol 30, No 6 var _prum=[['id','54ff88bcabe53dc41d1004a5'],['mark','firstbyte',(new Date()).getTime()

Rethinking the logistic approach for population dynamics of mutualistic interactions.

PubMed

García-Algarra, Javier; Galeano, Javier; Pastor, Juan Manuel; Iriondo, José María; Ramasco, José J

2014-12-21

Mutualistic communities have an internal structure that makes them resilient to external perturbations. Late research has focused on their stability and the topology of the relations between the different organisms to explain the reasons of the system robustness. Much less attention has been invested in analyzing the systems dynamics. The main population models in use are modifications of the r-K formulation of logistic equation with additional terms to account for the benefits produced by the interspecific interactions. These models have shortcomings as the so-called r-K formulation diverges under some conditions. In this work, we introduce a model for population dynamics under mutualism that preserves the original logistic formulation. It is mathematically simpler than the widely used type II models, although it shows similar complexity in terms of fixed points and stability of the dynamics. We perform an analytical stability analysis and numerical simulations to study the model behavior in general interaction scenarios including tests of the resilience of its dynamics under external perturbations. Despite its simplicity, our results indicate that the model dynamics shows an important richness that can be used to gain further insights in the dynamics of mutualistic communities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Competition in size-structured populations: mechanisms inducing cohort formation and population cycles.

PubMed

de Roos, André M; Persson, Lennart

2003-02-01

In this paper we investigate the consequences of size-dependent competition among the individuals of a consumer population by analyzing the dynamic properties of a physiologically structured population model. Only 2 size-classes of individuals are distinguished: juveniles and adults. Juveniles and adults both feed on one and the same resource and hence interact by means of exploitative competition. Juvenile individuals allocate all assimilated energy into development and mature on reaching a fixed developmental threshold. The combination of this fixed threshold and the resource-dependent developmental rate, implies that the juvenile delay between birth and the onset of reproduction may vary in time. Adult individuals allocate all assimilated energy to reproduction. Mortality of both juveniles and adults is assumed to be inversely proportional to the amount of energy assimilated. In this setting we study how the dynamics of the population are influenced by the relative foraging capabilities of juveniles and adults. In line with results that we previously obtained in size-structured consumer-resource models with pulsed reproduction, population cycles primarily occur when either juveniles or adults have a distinct competitive advantage. When adults have a larger per capita feeding rate and are hence competitively superior to juveniles, population oscillations occur that are primarily induced by the fact that the duration of the juvenile period changes with changing food conditions. These cycles do not occur when the juvenile delay is a fixed parameter. When juveniles are competitively superior, two different types of population fluctuations can occur: (1) rapid, low-amplitude fluctuations having a period of half the juvenile delay and (2) slow, large-amplitude fluctuations characterized by a period, which is roughly equal to the juvenile delay. The analysis of simplified versions of the structured model indicates that these two types of oscillations also occur if

Bipartite graphs as models of population structures in evolutionary multiplayer games.

PubMed

Peña, Jorge; Rochat, Yannick

2012-01-01

By combining evolutionary game theory and graph theory, "games on graphs" study the evolutionary dynamics of frequency-dependent selection in population structures modeled as geographical or social networks. Networks are usually represented by means of unipartite graphs, and social interactions by two-person games such as the famous prisoner's dilemma. Unipartite graphs have also been used for modeling interactions going beyond pairwise interactions. In this paper, we argue that bipartite graphs are a better alternative to unipartite graphs for describing population structures in evolutionary multiplayer games. To illustrate this point, we make use of bipartite graphs to investigate, by means of computer simulations, the evolution of cooperation under the conventional and the distributed N-person prisoner's dilemma. We show that several implicit assumptions arising from the standard approach based on unipartite graphs (such as the definition of replacement neighborhoods, the intertwining of individual and group diversity, and the large overlap of interaction neighborhoods) can have a large impact on the resulting evolutionary dynamics. Our work provides a clear example of the importance of construction procedures in games on graphs, of the suitability of bigraphs and hypergraphs for computational modeling, and of the importance of concepts from social network analysis such as centrality, centralization and bipartite clustering for the understanding of dynamical processes occurring on networked population structures.

Bipartite Graphs as Models of Population Structures in Evolutionary Multiplayer Games

PubMed Central

Peña, Jorge; Rochat, Yannick

2012-01-01

By combining evolutionary game theory and graph theory, “games on graphs” study the evolutionary dynamics of frequency-dependent selection in population structures modeled as geographical or social networks. Networks are usually represented by means of unipartite graphs, and social interactions by two-person games such as the famous prisoner’s dilemma. Unipartite graphs have also been used for modeling interactions going beyond pairwise interactions. In this paper, we argue that bipartite graphs are a better alternative to unipartite graphs for describing population structures in evolutionary multiplayer games. To illustrate this point, we make use of bipartite graphs to investigate, by means of computer simulations, the evolution of cooperation under the conventional and the distributed N-person prisoner’s dilemma. We show that several implicit assumptions arising from the standard approach based on unipartite graphs (such as the definition of replacement neighborhoods, the intertwining of individual and group diversity, and the large overlap of interaction neighborhoods) can have a large impact on the resulting evolutionary dynamics. Our work provides a clear example of the importance of construction procedures in games on graphs, of the suitability of bigraphs and hypergraphs for computational modeling, and of the importance of concepts from social network analysis such as centrality, centralization and bipartite clustering for the understanding of dynamical processes occurring on networked population structures. PMID:22970237

Predatory senescence in ageing wolves

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacNulty, D.R.; Smith, D.W.; Vucetich, J.A.; Mech, L.D.; Stahler, D.R.; Packer, C.

2009-01-01

It is well established that ageing handicaps the ability of prey to escape predators, yet surprisingly little is known about how ageing affects the ability of predators to catch prey. Research into long-lived predators has assumed that adults have uniform impacts on prey regardless of age. Here we use longitudinal data from repeated observations of individually-known wolves (Canis lupus) hunting elk (Cervus elaphus) in Yellowstone National Park to demonstrate that adult predatory performance declines with age and that an increasing ratio of senescent individuals in the wolf population depresses the rate of prey offtake. Because this ratio fluctuates independently of population size, predatory senescence may cause wolf populations of equal size but different age structure to have different impacts on prey populations. These findings suggest that predatory senescence is an important, though overlooked, factor affecting predator-prey dynamics. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics

PubMed Central

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R. R.

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level. PMID:25938409

Population dynamics in changing environments: the case of an eruptive forest pest species.

PubMed

Kausrud, Kyrre; Okland, Bjørn; Skarpaas, Olav; Grégoire, Jean-Claude; Erbilgin, Nadir; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2012-02-01

In recent decades we have seen rapid and co-occurring changes in landscape structure, species distributions and even climate as consequences of human activity. Such changes affect the dynamics of the interaction between major forest pest species, such as bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), and their host trees. Normally breeding mostly in broken or severely stressed spruce; at high population densities some bark beetle species can colonise and kill healthy trees on scales ranging from single trees in a stand to multi-annual landscape-wide outbreaks. In Eurasia, the largest outbreaks are caused by the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus (Linnaeus), which is common and shares a wide distribution with its main host, Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst.). A large literature is now available, from which this review aims to synthesize research relevant for the population dynamics of I. typographus and co-occurring species under changing conditions. We find that spruce bark beetle population dynamics tend to be metastable, but that mixed-species and age-heterogeneous forests with good site-matching tend to be less susceptible to large-scale outbreaks. While large accumulations of logs should be removed and/or debarked before the next swarming period, intensive removal of all coarse dead wood may be counterproductive, as it reduces the diversity of predators that in some areas may play a role in keeping I. typographus populations below the outbreak threshold, and sanitary logging frequently causes edge effects and root damage, reducing the resistance of remaining trees. It is very hard to predict the outcome of interspecific interactions due to invading beetle species or I. typographus establishing outside its current range, as they can be of varying sign and strength and may fluctuate depending on environmental factors and population phase. Most research indicates that beetle outbreaks will increase in frequency and magnitude as temperature, wind speed and

Stand structure and dynamics of sand pine differ between the Florida panhandle and peninsula

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drewa, P.B.; Platt, W.J.; Kwit, C.; Doyle, T.W.

2008-01-01

Size and age structures of stand populations of numerous tree species exhibit uneven or reverse J-distributions that can persist after non-catastrophic disturbance, especially windstorms. Among disjunct populations of conspecific trees, alternative distributions are also possible and may be attributed to more localized variation in disturbance. Regional differences in structure and demography among disjunct populations of sand pine (Pinus clausa (Chapm. ex Engelm.) Vasey ex Sarg.) in the Florida panhandle and peninsula may result from variation in hurricane regimes associated with each of these populations. We measured size, age, and growth rates of trees from panhandle and peninsula populations and then compiled size and age class distributions. We also characterized hurricanes in both regions over the past century. Size and age structures of panhandle populations were unevenly distributed and exhibited continuous recruitment; peninsula populations were evenly sized and aged and exhibited only periodic recruitment. Since hurricane regimes were similar between regions, historical fire regimes may have been responsible for regional differences in structure of sand pine populations. We hypothesize that fires were locally nonexistent in coastal panhandle populations, while periodic high intensity fires occurred in peninsula populations over the past century. Such differences in local fire regimes could have resulted in the absence of hurricane effects in the peninsula. Increased intensity of hurricanes in the panhandle and current fire suppression patterns in the peninsula may shift characteristics of sand pine stands in both regions. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Ecotoxicology and spatial modeling in population dynamics: an illustration with brown trout.

PubMed

Chaumot, Arnaud; Charles, Sandrine; Flammarion, Patrick; Auger, Pierre

2003-05-01

We developed a multiregion matrix population model to explore how the demography of a hypothetical brown trout population living in a river network varies in response to different spatial scenarios of cadmium contamination. Age structure, spatial distribution, and demographic and migration processes are taken into account in the model. Chronic or acute cadmium concentrations affect the demographic parameters at the scale of the river range. The outputs of the model constitute population-level end points (the asymptotic population growth rate, the stable age structure, and the asymptotic spatial distribution) that allow comparing the different spatial scenarios of contamination regarding the demographic response at the scale of the whole river network. An analysis of the sensitivity of these end points to lower order parameters enables us to link the local effects of cadmium to the global demographic behavior of the brown trout population. Such a link is of broad interest in the point of view of ecotoxicological management.

Altruistic aging: The evolutionary dynamics balancing longevity and evolvability.

PubMed

Herrera, Minette; Miller, Aaron; Nishimura, Joel

2017-04-01

Altruism is typically associated with traits or behaviors that benefit the population as a whole, but are costly to the individual. We propose that, when the environment is rapidly changing, senescence (age-related deterioration) can be altruistic. According to numerical simulations of an agent-based model, while long-lived individuals can outcompete their short lived peers, populations composed of long-lived individuals are more likely to go extinct during periods of rapid environmental change. Moreover, as in many situations where other cooperative behavior arises, senescence can be stabilized in a structured population.

Optimal Harvesting in an Age-Structured Predator-Prey Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fister, K. Renee; Lenhart, Suzanne

2006-06-15

We investigate optimal harvesting control in a predator-prey model in which the prey population is represented by a first-order partial differential equation with age-structure and the predator population is represented by an ordinary differential equation in time. The controls are the proportions of the populations to be harvested, and the objective functional represents the profit from harvesting. The existence and uniqueness of the optimal control pair are established.

Flight-vehicle materials, structures, and dynamics - Assessment and future directions. Vol. 5 - Structural dynamics and aeroelasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K. (Editor); Venneri, Samuel L. (Editor)

1993-01-01

Various papers on flight vehicle materials, structures, and dynamics are presented. Individual topics addressed include: general modeling methods, component modeling techniques, time-domain computational techniques, dynamics of articulated structures, structural dynamics in rotating systems, structural dynamics in rotorcraft, damping in structures, structural acoustics, structural design for control, structural modeling for control, control strategies for structures, system identification, overall assessment of needs and benefits in structural dynamics and controlled structures. Also discussed are: experimental aeroelasticity in wind tunnels, aeroservoelasticity, nonlinear aeroelasticity, aeroelasticity problems in turbomachines, rotary-wing aeroelasticity with application to VTOL vehicles, computational aeroelasticity, structural dynamic testing and instrumentation.

Harvest and dynamics of duck populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sedinger, James S.; Herzog, Mark P.

2012-01-01

The role of harvest in the dynamics of waterfowl populations continues to be debated among scientists and managers. Our perception is that interested members of the public and some managers believe that harvest influences North American duck populations based on calls for more conservative harvest regulations. A recent review of harvest and population dynamics of North American mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) populations (Pöysä et al. 2004) reached similar conclusions. Because of the importance of this issue, we reviewed the evidence for an impact of harvest on duck populations. Our understanding of the effects of harvest is limited because harvest effects are typically confounded with those of population density; regulations are typically most liberal when populations are greatest. This problem also exists in the current Adaptive Harvest Management Program (Conn and Kendall 2004). Consequently, even where harvest appears additive to other mortality, this may be an artifact of ignoring effects of population density. Overall, we found no compelling evidence for strong additive effects of harvest on survival in duck populations that could not be explained by other factors.

Mitochondrial Dynamics: Coupling Mitochondrial Fitness with Healthy Aging.

PubMed

Sebastián, David; Palacín, Manuel; Zorzano, Antonio

2017-03-01

Aging is associated with a decline in mitochondrial function and the accumulation of abnormal mitochondria. However, the precise mechanisms by which aging promotes these mitochondrial alterations and the role of the latter in aging are still not fully understood. Mitochondrial dynamics is a key process regulating mitochondrial function and quality. Altered expression of some mitochondrial dynamics proteins has been recently associated with aging and with age-related alterations in yeast, Caenorhabditis elegans, mice, and humans. Here, we review the link between alterations in mitochondrial dynamics, aging, and age-related impairment. We propose that the dysregulation of mitochondrial dynamics leads to age-induced accumulation of unhealthy mitochondria and contributes to alterations linked to aging, such as diabetes and neurodegeneration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Influence of Individual Variability on Zooplankton Population Dynamics under Different Environmental Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, R.; Liu, H.

2016-02-01

Understanding how biological components respond to environmental changes could be insightful to predict ecosystem trajectories under different climate scenarios. Zooplankton are key components of marine ecosystems and changes in their dynamics could have major impact on ecosystem structure. We developed an individual-based model of a common coastal calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa to examine how environmental factors affect zooplankton population dynamics and explore the role of individual variability in sustaining population under various environmental conditions consisting of temperature, food concentration and salinity. Total abundance, egg production and proportion of survival were used to measure population success. Results suggested population benefits from high level of individual variability under extreme environmental conditions including unfavorable temperature, salinity, as well as low food concentration, and selection on fast-growers becomes stronger with increasing individual variability and increasing environmental stress. Multiple regression analysis showed that temperature, food concentration, salinity and individual variability have significant effects on survival of A. tonsa population. These results suggest that environmental factors have great influence on zooplankton population, and individual variability has important implications for population survivability under unfavorable conditions. Given that marine ecosystems are at risk from drastic environmental changes, understanding how individual variability sustains populations could increase our capability to predict population dynamics in a changing environment.

Day-to-Day Dynamics of Commensal Escherichia coli in Zimbabwean Cows Evidence Temporal Fluctuations within a Host-Specific Population Structure.

PubMed

Massot, Méril; Couffignal, Camille; Clermont, Olivier; D'Humières, Camille; Chatel, Jérémie; Plault, Nicolas; Andremont, Antoine; Caron, Alexandre; Mentré, France; Denamur, Erick

2017-07-01

qualitative aspects of E. coli commensal populations, with a focus on both Shiga toxin-producing E. coli and antibiotic-resistant E. coli strains. We show that the structure of these commensal populations was highly specific to the host, even though the cows ate and roamed together, and was highly dynamic between days. Such data are of importance to understand the ecological forces that drive the dynamics of the emergence of E. coli clones of particular interest within the gastrointestinal tract and their transmission between hosts. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Persistence versus extinction for a class of discrete-time structured population models.

PubMed

Jin, Wen; Smith, Hal L; Thieme, Horst R

2016-03-01

We provide sharp conditions distinguishing persistence and extinction for a class of discrete-time dynamical systems on the positive cone of an ordered Banach space generated by a map which is the sum of a positive linear contraction A and a nonlinear perturbation G that is compact and differentiable at zero in the direction of the cone. Such maps arise as year-to-year projections of population age, stage, or size-structure distributions in population biology where typically A has to do with survival and individual development and G captures the effects of reproduction. The threshold distinguishing persistence and extinction is the principal eigenvalue of (II−A)(−1)G'(0) provided by the Krein-Rutman Theorem, and persistence is described in terms of associated eigenfunctionals. Our results significantly extend earlier persistence results of the last two authors which required more restrictive conditions on G. They are illustrated by application of the results to a plant model with a seed bank.

Dynamics of the double-crested cormorant population on Lake Ontario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blackwell, Bradley F.; Stapanian, Martin A.; Weseloh, D.V. Chip

2002-01-01

After nearly 30 years of recolonization and expansion across North America, the double-crested cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) occupies the role of a perceived and, in some situations, realized threat to fish stocks and other resources. However, population data necessary to plan, defend, and implement management of this species are few. Our purpose was to gain insight into the relative contribution of various population parameters to the overall rate of population growth and identify data needs critical to improving our understanding of the dynamics of double-crested cormorant populations. We demonstrated the construction of a biologically reasonable representation of cormorant population growth on Lake Ontario (1979-2000) by referencing literature values for fertility, age at first breeding, and survival. These parameters were incorporated into a deterministic stage-classified matrix model. By calculating the elasticity of matrix elements (i.e., statgspecific fertility and survival), we found that cormorant population growth on Lake Ontario was most sensitive to survival of birds about to turn age 3 and older. Finally, we demonstrated how this information could be used to evaluate management scenarios and direct future research by simulating potential environmental effects on fertility and survival, as well as a 5-year egg-oiling program. We also demonstrated that survival of older birds exerts more effective population control than changes in fertility.

Feedback between Population and Evolutionary Dynamics Determines the Fate of Social Microbial Populations

PubMed Central

Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

2013-01-01

The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50–100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators “spiral” to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the demographic fate

Calculation of Disease Dynamics in a Population of Households

PubMed Central

Ross, Joshua V.; House, Thomas; Keeling, Matt J.

2010-01-01

Early mathematical representations of infectious disease dynamics assumed a single, large, homogeneously mixing population. Over the past decade there has been growing interest in models consisting of multiple smaller subpopulations (households, workplaces, schools, communities), with the natural assumption of strong homogeneous mixing within each subpopulation, and weaker transmission between subpopulations. Here we consider a model of SIRS (susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible) infection dynamics in a very large (assumed infinite) population of households, with the simplifying assumption that each household is of the same size (although all methods may be extended to a population with a heterogeneous distribution of household sizes). For this households model we present efficient methods for studying several quantities of epidemiological interest: (i) the threshold for invasion; (ii) the early growth rate; (iii) the household offspring distribution; (iv) the endemic prevalence of infection; and (v) the transient dynamics of the process. We utilize these methods to explore a wide region of parameter space appropriate for human infectious diseases. We then extend these results to consider the effects of more realistic gamma-distributed infectious periods. We discuss how all these results differ from standard homogeneous-mixing models and assess the implications for the invasion, transmission and persistence of infection. The computational efficiency of the methodology presented here will hopefully aid in the parameterisation of structured models and in the evaluation of appropriate responses for future disease outbreaks. PMID:20305791

A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought.

PubMed

Jones, Marjorie T; Milligan, William R; Kats, Lee B; Vandergon, Thomas L; Honeycutt, Rodney L; Fisher, Robert N; Davis, Courtney L; Lucas, Timothy A

2017-02-07

We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Marjorie T.; Milligan, William R.; Kats, Lee B.; Vandergon, Thomas L.; Honeycutt, Rodney L.; Fisher, Robert N.; Davis, Courtney L.; Lucas, Timothy A.

2017-01-01

We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short.

The influence of historical climate on the population dynamics of three dominant sagebrush steppe plants.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change could alter the population growth of dominant species, leading to profound effects on community structure and ecosystem dynamics. Understanding the links between historical variation in climate and population vital rates (survival, growth, recruitment) is one way to predict the impact...

Using satellite telemetry to define spatial population structure in polar bears in the Norwegian and western Russian Arctic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mauritzen, Mette; Derocher, Andrew E.; Wiig, Øystein; Belikov, Stanislav; Boltunov, Andrei N.; Garner, Gerald W.

2002-01-01

1. Animal populations, defined by geographical areas within a species’ distribution where population dynamics are largely regulated by births and deaths rather than by migration from surrounding areas, may be the correct unit for wildlife management. However, in heterogeneous landscapes varying habitat quality may yield subpopulations with distinct patterns in resource use and demography significant to the dynamics of populations.2. To define the spatial population structure of polar bears Ursus maritimus in the Norwegian and western Russian Arctic, and to assess the existence of a shared population between the two countries, we analysed satellite telemetry data obtained from 105 female polar bears over 12 years.3. Using both cluster analyses and home-range estimation methods, we identified five population units inhabiting areas with different sea-ice characteristics and prey availability.4. The continuous distribution of polar bear positions indicated that the different subpopulations formed one continuous polar bear population in the Norwegian and western Russian Arctic. Hence, Norway and Russia have a shared management responsibility.5. The spatial population structure identified will provide a guide for evaluating geographical patterns in polar bear ecology, the dynamics of polar bear–seal relationships and the effects of habitat alteration due to climate change. The work illustrates the importance of defining population borders and subpopulation structure in understanding the dynamics and management of larger animals.

Male Kirtland's Warblers' patch-level response to landscape structure during periods of varying population size and habitat amounts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donner, D.M.; Ribic, C.A.; Probst, J.R.

2009-01-01

Forest planners must evaluate how spatiotemporal changes in habitat amount and configuration across the landscape as a result of timber management will affect species' persistence. However, there are few long-term programs available for evaluation. We investigated the response of male Kirtland's Warbler (Dendroica kirtlandii) to 26 years of changing patch and landscape structure during a large, 26-year forestry-habitat restoration program within the warbler's primary breeding range. We found that the average density of male Kirtland's Warblers was related to a different combination of patch and landscape attributes depending on the species' regional population level and habitat amounts on the landscape (early succession jack pine (Pinus banksiana) forests; 15-42% habitat cover). Specifically, patch age and habitat regeneration type were important at low male population and total habitat amounts, while patch age and distance to an occupied patch were important at relatively high population and habitat amounts. Patch age and size were more important at increasing population levels and an intermediate amount of habitat. The importance of patch age to average male density during all periods reflects the temporal buildup and decline of male numbers as habitat suitability within the patch changed with succession. Habitat selection (i.e., preference for wildfire-regenerated habitat) and availability may explain the importance of habitat type and patch size during lower population and habitat levels. The relationship between male density and distance when there was the most habitat on the landscape and the male population was large and still increasing may be explained by the widening spatial dispersion of the increasing male population at the regional scale. Because creating or preserving habitat is not a random process, management efforts would benefit from more investigations of managed population responses to changes in spatial structure that occur through habitat gain

Optimal control of Atlantic population Canada geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauser, C.E.; Runge, M.C.; Cooch, E.G.; Johnson, F.A.; Harvey, W.F.

2007-01-01

Management of Canada geese (Branta canadensis) can be a balance between providing sustained harvest opportunity while not allowing populations to become overabundant and cause damage. In this paper, we focus on the Atlantic population of Canada geese and use stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal harvest strategy over a range of plausible models for population dynamics. There is evidence to suggest that the population exhibits significant age structure, and it is possible to reconstruct age structure from surveys. Consequently the harvest strategy is a function of the age composition, as well as the abundance, of the population. The objective is to maximize harvest while maintaining the number of breeding adults in the population between specified upper and lower limits. In addition, the total harvest capacity is limited and there is uncertainty about the strength of density-dependence. We find that under a density-independent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at the highest acceptable abundance. However if harvest capacity is limited, then the optimal long-term breeding population size is lower than the highest acceptable level, to reduce the risk of the population growing to an unacceptably large size. Under the proposed density-dependent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at an intermediate level between the bounds on acceptable population size; limits to harvest capacity have little effect on the optimal long-term population size. It is clear that the strength of density-dependence and constraints on harvest significantly affect the optimal harvest strategy for this population. Model discrimination might be achieved in the long term, while continuing to meet management goals, by adopting an adaptive management strategy.

Evolution of specialization under non-equilibrium population dynamics.

PubMed

Nurmi, Tuomas; Parvinen, Kalle

2013-03-21

We analyze the evolution of specialization in resource utilization in a mechanistically underpinned discrete-time model using the adaptive dynamics approach. We assume two nutritionally equivalent resources that in the absence of consumers grow sigmoidally towards a resource-specific carrying capacity. The consumers use resources according to the law of mass-action with rates involving trade-off. The resulting discrete-time model for the consumer population has over-compensatory dynamics. We illuminate the way non-equilibrium population dynamics affect the evolutionary dynamics of the resource consumption rates, and show that evolution to the trimorphic coexistence of a generalist and two specialists is possible due to asynchronous non-equilibrium population dynamics of the specialists. In addition, various forms of cyclic evolutionary dynamics are possible. Furthermore, evolutionary suicide may occur even without Allee effects and demographic stochasticity. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stochastic population dynamics in spatially extended predator-prey systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobramysl, Ulrich; Mobilia, Mauro; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C.

2018-02-01

Spatially extended population dynamics models that incorporate demographic noise serve as case studies for the crucial role of fluctuations and correlations in biological systems. Numerical and analytic tools from non-equilibrium statistical physics capture the stochastic kinetics of these complex interacting many-particle systems beyond rate equation approximations. Including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey competition invalidates the neutral Lotka-Volterra population cycles. Stochastic models yield long-lived erratic oscillations stemming from a resonant amplification mechanism. Spatially extended predator-prey systems display noise-stabilized activity fronts that generate persistent correlations. Fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the oscillation parameters can be analyzed perturbatively via a Doi-Peliti field theory mapping of the master equation; related tools allow detailed characterization of extinction pathways. The critical steady-state and non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics at the predator extinction threshold are governed by the directed percolation universality class. Spatial predation rate variability results in more localized clusters, enhancing both competing species’ population densities. Affixing variable interaction rates to individual particles and allowing for trait inheritance subject to mutations induces fast evolutionary dynamics for the rate distributions. Stochastic spatial variants of three-species competition with ‘rock-paper-scissors’ interactions metaphorically describe cyclic dominance. These models illustrate intimate connections between population dynamics and evolutionary game theory, underscore the role of fluctuations to drive populations toward extinction, and demonstrate how space can support species diversity. Two-dimensional cyclic three-species May-Leonard models are characterized by the emergence of spiraling patterns whose properties are elucidated by a mapping onto a complex

The role of social and ecological processes in structuring animal populations: a case study from automated tracking of wild birds

PubMed Central

Farine, Damien R.; Firth, Josh A.; Aplin, Lucy M.; Crates, Ross A.; Culina, Antica; Garroway, Colin J.; Hinde, Camilla A.; Kidd, Lindall R.; Milligan, Nicole D.; Psorakis, Ioannis; Radersma, Reinder; Verhelst, Brecht; Voelkl, Bernhard; Sheldon, Ben C.

2015-01-01

Both social and ecological factors influence population process and structure, with resultant consequences for phenotypic selection on individuals. Understanding the scale and relative contribution of these two factors is thus a central aim in evolutionary ecology. In this study, we develop a framework using null models to identify the social and spatial patterns that contribute to phenotypic structure in a wild population of songbirds. We used automated technologies to track 1053 individuals that formed 73 737 groups from which we inferred a social network. Our framework identified that both social and spatial drivers contributed to assortment in the network. In particular, groups had a more even sex ratio than expected and exhibited a consistent age structure that suggested local association preferences, such as preferential attachment or avoidance. By contrast, recent immigrants were spatially partitioned from locally born individuals, suggesting differential dispersal strategies by phenotype. Our results highlight how different scales of social decision-making, ranging from post-natal dispersal settlement to fission–fusion dynamics, can interact to drive phenotypic structure in animal populations. PMID:26064644

The Impact of an Aging Population in the Workplace.

PubMed

White, Mercedia Stevenson; Burns, Candace; Conlon, Helen Acree

2018-03-01

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the number of people 65 years of age or older living in the United States is projected to double by 2030 to 72 million adults, representing 20% of the total U.S. Evidence suggests that older Americans are working longer and spending more time on the job than their peers did in previous years. The increased number of older adults working longer is observed not only in the Unites States but also worldwide. There are numerous ramifications associated with the changing demographics and the expanding prevalence of an aging population in the workforce. Dynamics that arise include stereotyping and discrimination, longevity and on-site expert knowledge, variances in workplace behavior, a multigenerational employee pool, chronic disease management, occupational safety, and the application of adaptive strategies to reduce injury occurrences. Occupational health nurses play a pivotal role in implementing best practices for an aging-friendly workplace.

Optimal growth entails risky localization in population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gueudré, Thomas; Martin, David G.

2018-03-01

Essential to each other, growth and exploration are jointly observed in alive and inanimate entities, such as animals, cells or goods. But how the environment's structural and temporal properties weights in this balance remains elusive. We analyze a model of stochastic growth with time correlations and diffusive dynamics that sheds light on the way populations grow and spread over general networks. This model suggests natural explanations of empirical facts in econo-physics or ecology, such as the risk-return trade-off and the Zipf law. We conclude that optimal growth leads to a localized population distribution, but such risky position can be mitigated through the space geometry. These results have broad applicability and are subsequently illustrated over an empirical study of financial data.

Multivariate dynamical modelling of structural change during development.

PubMed

Ziegler, Gabriel; Ridgway, Gerard R; Blakemore, Sarah-Jayne; Ashburner, John; Penny, Will

2017-02-15

Here we introduce a multivariate framework for characterising longitudinal changes in structural MRI using dynamical systems. The general approach enables modelling changes of states in multiple imaging biomarkers typically observed during brain development, plasticity, ageing and degeneration, e.g. regional gray matter volume of multiple regions of interest (ROIs). Structural brain states follow intrinsic dynamics according to a linear system with additional inputs accounting for potential driving forces of brain development. In particular, the inputs to the system are specified to account for known or latent developmental growth/decline factors, e.g. due to effects of growth hormones, puberty, or sudden behavioural changes etc. Because effects of developmental factors might be region-specific, the sensitivity of each ROI to contributions of each factor is explicitly modelled. In addition to the external effects of developmental factors on regional change, the framework enables modelling and inference about directed (potentially reciprocal) interactions between brain regions, due to competition for space, or structural connectivity, and suchlike. This approach accounts for repeated measures in typical MRI studies of development and aging. Model inversion and posterior distributions are obtained using earlier established variational methods enabling Bayesian evidence-based comparisons between various models of structural change. Using this approach we demonstrate dynamic cortical changes during brain maturation between 6 and 22 years of age using a large openly available longitudinal paediatric dataset with 637 scans from 289 individuals. In particular, we model volumetric changes in 26 bilateral ROIs, which cover large portions of cortical and subcortical gray matter. We account for (1) puberty-related effects on gray matter regions; (2) effects of an early transient growth process with additional time-lag parameter; (3) sexual dimorphism by modelling parameter

Scoping the impact of changes in population age-structure on the future burden of foodborne disease in the Netherlands, 2020-2060.

PubMed

Bouwknegt, Martijn; van Pelt, Wilfrid; Havelaar, Arie H

2013-07-11

A demographic shift towards a larger proportion of elderly in the Dutch population in the coming decades might change foodborne disease incidence and mortality. In the current study we focused on the age-specific changes in the occurrence of foodborne pathogens by combining age-specific demographic forecasts for 10-year periods between 2020 and 2060 with current age-specific infection probabilities for Campylobacter spp., non-typhoidal Salmonella, hepatitis A virus, acquired Toxoplasma gondii and Listeria monocytogenes. Disease incidence rates for the former three pathogens were estimated to change marginally, because increases and decreases in specific age groups cancelled out over all ages. Estimated incidence of reported cases per 100,000 for 2060 mounted to 12 (Salmonella), 51 (Campylobacter), 1.1 (hepatitis A virus) and 2.1 (Toxoplasma). For L. monocytogenes, incidence increased by 45% from 0.41 per 100,000 in 2011 to 0.60 per 100,000. Estimated mortality rates increased two-fold for Salmonella and Campylobacter to 0.5 and 0.7 per 100,000, and increased by 25% for Listeria from 0.06 to 0.08. This straightforward scoping effort does not suggest major changes in incidence and mortality for these food borne pathogens based on changes in de population age-structure as independent factor. Other factors, such as changes in health care systems, social clustering and food processing and preparation, could not be included in the estimates.

Reconstructing populations dynamics: Mortality and recruitment of the southern geoduck Panopea abbreviata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaidman, Paula C.; Morsan, Enrique

2018-05-01

In the development of management measures for sustainable fisheries, estimating the natural mortality rate and recruitment are fundamental. In northern Patagonia, Argentina, the southern geoduck, Panopea abbreviata, a long-lived clam that forms spatially disjunct subpopulations, supports an unregulated fishery. In this study, we estimate natural mortality. We studied the age structure of beds within the northern Patagonia gulfs, San Matías Gulf (SMG) and San Jose Gulf (SJG), and we estimated a time series for back-reconstructed recruitment to explore spatial coherence in relation to local oceanographic conditions and to elucidate its population dynamics. We constructed a cumulative frequency distribution of the age of dead shells collected and used the exponential and Weibull models to model mortality. Live geoducks were sampled from six populations between 2000 and 2006. Age-frequency distributions and mortality models were used to back-calculate the time series of recruitment for each population. The recruitment time series was analysed using continuous wavelet transform. The value of natural mortality estimated by the exponential model was 0.054 years-1, whereas those estimated by the Weibull model were α = 0.00085 years-1 and β = 2.1. For the latter, M values for cohorts were 0.01 for 10 years, 0.02 for 20 years, 0.04 for 30 years and 0.05 for 40 years. The Weibull model was observed to be the best fit to the data. The natural mortality rate of P. abbreviata estimated in this study was lower than that estimated in a previous work for populations from SMG. The back-calculated time series for recruitment demonstrated considerable yearly variation, suggesting that local conditions have an important role in recruitment regulation. At a decadal temporal scale, a clear increasing recruitment trend was evident over the last 20 years in all populations. Populations in SMG were settled >60 years ago. In contrast, no individuals older than 30 years were observed in

Animal population dynamics: Identification of critical components

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emlen, J.M.; Pikitch, E.K.

1989-01-01

There is a growing interest in the use of population dynamics models in environmental risk assessment and the promulgation of environmental regulatory policies. Unfortunately, because of species and areal differences in the physical and biotic influences on population dynamics, such models must almost inevitably be both complex and species- or site-specific. Given the emormous variety of species and sites of potential concern, this fact presents a problem; it simply is not possible to construct models for all species and circumstances. Therefore, it is useful, before building predictive population models, to discover what input parameters are of critical importance to the desired output. This information should enable the construction of simpler and more generalizable models. As a first step, it is useful to consider population models as composed to two, partly separable classes, one comprising the purely mechanical descriptors of dynamics from given demographic parameter values, and the other describing the modulation of the demographic parameters by environmental factors (changes in physical environment, species interactions, pathogens, xenobiotic chemicals). This division permits sensitivity analyses to be run on the first of these classes, providing guidance for subsequent model simplification. We here apply such a sensitivity analysis to network models of mammalian and avian population dynamics.

How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

PubMed

Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

2016-02-01

Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.

Hydrologic Variability Governs Population Dynamics of a Vulnerable Amphibian in an Arid Environment

PubMed Central

Zylstra, Erin R.; Steidl, Robert J.; Swann, Don E.; Ratzlaff, Kristina

2015-01-01

Dynamics of many amphibian populations are governed by the distribution and availability of water. Therefore, understanding the hydrological mechanisms that explain spatial and temporal variation in occupancy and abundance will improve our ability to conserve and recover populations of vulnerable amphibians. We used 16 years of survey data from intermittent mountain streams in the Sonoran Desert to evaluate how availability of surface water affected survival and adult recruitment of a threatened amphibian, the lowland leopard frog (Lithobates yavapaiensis). Across the entire study period, monthly survival of adults ranged from 0.72 to 0.99 during summer and 0.59 to 0.94 during winter and increased with availability of surface water (Z = 7.66; P < 0.01). Recruitment of frogs into the adult age class occurred primarily during winter and ranged from 1.9 to 3.8 individuals/season/pool; like survival, recruitment increased with availability of surface water (Z = 3.67; P < 0.01). Although abundance of frogs varied across seasons and years, we found no evidence of a systematic trend during the 16-year study period. Given the strong influence of surface water on population dynamics of leopard frogs, conservation of many riparian obligates in this and similar arid regions likely depends critically on minimizing threats to structures and ecosystem processes that maintain surface waters. Understanding the influence of surface-water availability on riparian organisms is particularly important because climate change is likely to decrease precipitation and increase ambient temperatures in desert riparian systems, both of which have the potential to alter fundamentally the hydrology of these systems. PMID:26030825

Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long-lived shorebird.

PubMed

van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M

2010-04-01

Climate change affects both the mean and variability of climatic variables, but their relative impact on the dynamics of populations is still largely unexplored. Based on a long-term study of the demography of a declining Eurasian Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) population, we quantify the effect of changes in mean and variance of winter temperature on different vital rates across the life cycle. Subsequently, we quantify, using stochastic stage-structured models, how changes in the mean and variance of this environmental variable affect important characteristics of the future population dynamics, such as the time to extinction. Local mean winter temperature is predicted to strongly increase, and we show that this is likely to increase the population's persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that higher temperatures have on fecundity. Interannual variation in winter temperature is predicted to decrease, which is also likely to increase persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that lower temperature variability has on fecundity. Overall, a 0.1 degrees C change in mean temperature is predicted to alter median time to extinction by 1.5 times as many years as would a 0.1 degrees C change in the standard deviation in temperature, suggesting that the dynamics of oystercatchers are more sensitive to changes in the mean than in the interannual variability of this climatic variable. Moreover, as climate models predict larger changes in the mean than in the standard deviation of local winter temperature, the effects of future climatic variability on this population's time to extinction are expected to be overwhelmed by the effects of changes in climatic means. We discuss the mechanisms by which climatic variability can either increase or decrease population viability and how this might depend both on species' life histories and on the vital rates affected. This

Lewis Structures Technology, 1988. Volume 1: Structural Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

The specific purpose of the symposium was to familiarize the engineering structures community with the depth and range of research performed by the Structures Division of the Lewis Research Center and its academic and industrial partners. Sessions covered vibration control, fracture mechanics, ceramic component reliability, parallel computing, nondestructive testing, dynamical systems, fatigue and damage, wind turbines, hot section technology, structural mechanics codes, computational methods for dynamics, structural optimization, and applications of structural dynamics.

Population ageing in Lebanon: current status, future prospects and implications for policy.

PubMed Central

Sibai, Abla Mehio; Sen, Kasturi; Baydoun, May; Saxena, Prem

2004-01-01

During the past three decades, fast declines in fertility and mortality in Lebanon have created a compressed demographic transition, a growing trend towards survival into later life, and a larger proportion of elderly people in the population. Projections show that people aged 65 years and over are expected to constitute 10.2% of the population by 2025. Nevertheless, changes to the structure and composition of the population remain unmatched by any corresponding increase in support measures either through formal channels such as pension plans or through health or socioeconomic security measures such as the provision of subsidies for health care, home help or any form of nursing care. This means that an older person is forced to be dependent upon family support if it exists. We examine demographic trends of population ageing in Lebanon between 1970 and 1995 and provide projections until 2025. Variations in population ageing within the country are also considered. We also assess health care and social policy implications of demographic changes in the context of health and economic sector reforms initiated recently by the state, and explore their impact upon the expanding population of elderly people. PMID:15112011

Spatial structure and nutrients promote invasion of IncP-1 plasmids in bacterial populations

PubMed Central

Fox, Randal E; Zhong, Xue; Krone, Stephen M; Top, Eva M

2008-01-01

In spite of the importance of plasmids in bacterial adaptation, we have a poor understanding of their dynamics. It is not known if or how plasmids persist in and spread through (invade) a bacterial population when there is no selection for plasmid-encoded traits. Moreover, the differences in dynamics between spatially structured and mixed populations are poorly understood. Through a joint experimental/theoretical approach, we tested the hypothesis that self-transmissible IncP-1 plasmids can invade a bacterial population in the absence of selection when initially very rare, but only in spatially structured habitats and when nutrients are regularly replenished. Using protocols that differed in the degree of spatial structure and nutrient levels, the invasiveness of plasmid pB10 in Escherichia coli was monitored during at least 15 days, with an initial fraction of plasmid-bearing (p+) cells as low as 10−7. To further explore the mechanisms underlying plasmid dynamics, we developed a spatially explicit mathematical model. When cells were grown on filters and transferred to fresh medium daily, the p+ fraction increased to 13%, whereas almost complete invasion occurred when the population structure was disturbed daily. The plasmid was unable to invade in liquid. When carbon source levels were lower or not replenished, plasmid invasion was hampered. Simulations of the mathematical model closely matched the experimental results and produced estimates of the effects of alternative experimental parameters. This allowed us to isolate the likely mechanisms most responsible for the observations. In conclusion, spatial structure and nutrient availability can be key determinants in the invasiveness of plasmids. PMID:18528415

Ballistic aggregation in systems of inelastic particles: Cluster growth, structure, and aging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paul, Subhajit; Das, Subir K.

2017-07-01

We study far-from-equilibrium dynamics in models of freely cooling granular gas and ballistically aggregating compact clusters. For both the cases, from event-driven molecular dynamics simulations, we have presented detailed results on structure and dynamics in space dimensions d =1 and 2. Via appropriate analyses it has been confirmed that the ballistic aggregation mechanism applies in d =1 granular gases as well. Aging phenomena for this mechanism, in both the dimensions, have been studied via the two-time density autocorrelation function. This quantity is demonstrated to exhibit scaling property similar to that in the standard phase transition kinetics. The corresponding functional forms have been quantified and the outcomes have been discussed in connection with the structural properties. Our results on aging establish a more complete equivalence between the granular gas and the ballistic aggregation models in d =1 .

Leading edge gypsy moth population dynamics

Treesearch

M. R. Carter; F. W. Ravlin; M. L. McManus

1991-01-01

Leading edge gypsy moth populations have been the focus of several intervention programs (MDIPM, AIPM). Knowledge of gypsy moth population dynamics in leading edge area is crucial for effective management. Populations in these areas tend to reach outbreak levels (noticeable defoliation) within three to four years after egg masses are first detected. Pheromone traps...

Local interactions lead to pathogen-driven change to host population dynamics.

PubMed

Boots, Michael; Childs, Dylan; Reuman, Daniel C; Mealor, Michael

2009-10-13

Individuals tend to interact more strongly with nearby individuals or within particular social groups. Recent theoretical advances have demonstrated that these within-population relationships can have fundamental implications for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. In particular, contact networks are crucial to the spread and evolution of disease. However, the theory remains largely untested experimentally. Here, we manipulate habitat viscosity and thereby the frequency of local interactions in an insect-pathogen model system in which the virus had previously been shown to have little effect on host population dynamics. At high viscosity, the pathogen caused the collapse of dominant and otherwise stable host generation cycles. Modeling shows that this collapse can be explained by an increase in the frequency of intracohort interactions relative to intercohort interactions, leading to more disease transmission. Our work emphasizes that spatial structure can subtly mediate intraspecific competition and the effects of natural enemies. A decrease in dispersal in a population may actually (sometimes rather counterintuitively) intensify the effects of parasites. Broadly, because anthropological and environmental change often cause changes in population mixing, our work highlights the potential for dramatic changes in the effects of parasites on host populations.

Regional Impact of Population Aging on Changes in Individual Self-perceptions of Aging: Findings From the German Ageing Survey.

PubMed

Wolff, Julia K; Beyer, Ann-Kristin; Wurm, Susanne; Nowossadeck, Sonja; Wiest, Maja

2018-01-18

The importance of self-perceptions of aging (SPA) for health and longevity is well documented. Comparably little is known about factors that contribute to SPA. Besides individual factors, the context a person lives in may shape SPA. Research has so far focused on country-level differences in age stereotypes, indicating that rapid population aging accompanies more negative age stereotypes. The present study expands previous research by investigating the impact of district-specific population aging within one country on different facets of SPA. Based on a large representative survey in Germany, the study investigates changes in SPA as ongoing development as well as the SPA of physical loss over a 12-year period in adults aged 40+. The study uses several indicators of population aging (e.g., population development, average age, greying index), to identify four clusters differing in their pace of population aging. Based on three-level latent change models, these clusters were compared in their impact on changes in SPA. Compared to districts with an average rate of population aging, the study shows that persons living in regions with a fast population aging rate (C1) hold more negative SPA in both facets (ps = .01). Districts with slow population aging (C2) have significantly higher SPA ongoing development (p = .03). The study underlines the importance for regional differences in population aging on the development of SPA. In particular, societies should be aware that fast population aging may result in more negative SPA. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Heterogeneous Structure of Stem Cells Dynamics: Statistical Models and Quantitative Predictions

PubMed Central

Bogdan, Paul; Deasy, Bridget M.; Gharaibeh, Burhan; Roehrs, Timo; Marculescu, Radu

2014-01-01

Understanding stem cell (SC) population dynamics is essential for developing models that can be used in basic science and medicine, to aid in predicting cells fate. These models can be used as tools e.g. in studying patho-physiological events at the cellular and tissue level, predicting (mal)functions along the developmental course, and personalized regenerative medicine. Using time-lapsed imaging and statistical tools, we show that the dynamics of SC populations involve a heterogeneous structure consisting of multiple sub-population behaviors. Using non-Gaussian statistical approaches, we identify the co-existence of fast and slow dividing subpopulations, and quiescent cells, in stem cells from three species. The mathematical analysis also shows that, instead of developing independently, SCs exhibit a time-dependent fractal behavior as they interact with each other through molecular and tactile signals. These findings suggest that more sophisticated models of SC dynamics should view SC populations as a collective and avoid the simplifying homogeneity assumption by accounting for the presence of more than one dividing sub-population, and their multi-fractal characteristics. PMID:24769917

Poverty dynamics, poverty thresholds and mortality: An age-stage Markovian model

PubMed Central

Rehkopf, David; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Horvitz, Carol C.

2018-01-01

Recent studies have examined the risk of poverty throughout the life course, but few have considered how transitioning in and out of poverty shape the dynamic heterogeneity and mortality disparities of a cohort at each age. Here we use state-by-age modeling to capture individual heterogeneity in crossing one of three different poverty thresholds (defined as 1×, 2× or 3× the “official” poverty threshold) at each age. We examine age-specific state structure, the remaining life expectancy, its variance, and cohort simulations for those above and below each threshold. Survival and transitioning probabilities are statistically estimated by regression analyses of data from the Health and Retirement Survey RAND data-set, and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Using the results of these regression analyses, we parameterize discrete state, discrete age matrix models. We found that individuals above all three thresholds have higher annual survival than those in poverty, especially for mid-ages to about age 80. The advantage is greatest when we classify individuals based on 1× the “official” poverty threshold. The greatest discrepancy in average remaining life expectancy and its variance between those above and in poverty occurs at mid-ages for all three thresholds. And fewer individuals are in poverty between ages 40-60 for all three thresholds. Our findings are consistent with results based on other data sets, but also suggest that dynamic heterogeneity in poverty and the transience of the poverty state is associated with income-related mortality disparities (less transience, especially of those above poverty, more disparities). This paper applies the approach of age-by-stage matrix models to human demography and individual poverty dynamics. In so doing we extend the literature on individual poverty dynamics across the life course. PMID:29768416

Population dynamics and angler exploitation of the unique muskellunge population in Shoepack Lake, Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frohnauer, N.K.; Pierce, C.L.; Kallemeyn, L.W.

2007-01-01

A unique population of muskellunge Esox masquinongy inhabits Shoepack Lake in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota. Little is known about its status, dynamics, and angler exploitation, and there is concern for the long-term viability of this population. We used intensive sampling and mark-recapture methods to quantify abundance, survival, growth, condition, age at maturity and fecundity and angler surveys to quantify angler pressure, catch rates, and exploitation. During our study, heavy rain washed out a dam constructed by beavers Castor canadensis which regulates the water level at the lake outlet, resulting in a nearly 50% reduction in surface area. We estimated a population size of 1,120 adult fish at the beginning of the study. No immediate reduction in population size was detected in response to the loss of lake area, although there was a gradual, but significant, decline in population size over the 2-year study. Adults grew less than 50 mm per year, and relative weight (W r) averaged roughly 80. Anglers were successful in catching, on average, two fish during a full day of angling, but harvest was negligible. Shoepack Lake muskellunge exhibit much slower growth rates and lower condition, but much higher densities and angler catch per unit effort (CPUE), than other muskellunge populations. The unique nature, limited distribution, and location of this population in a national park require special consideration for management. The results of this study provide the basis for assessing the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population through simulations of long-term population dynamics and genetically effective population size. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

Influence of body condition on the population dynamics of Atlantic salmon with consideration of the potential impact of sea lice.

PubMed

Susdorf, R; Salama, N K G; Lusseau, D

2017-11-21

Atlantic salmon Salmo salar is an iconic species of high conservation and economic importance. At sea, individuals typically are subject to sea lice infestation, which can have detrimental effects on their host. Over recent decades, the body condition and marine survival in NE Atlantic stocks have generally decreased, reflected in fewer adults returning to rivers, which is partly attributable to sea lice. We developed a deterministic stage-structured population model to assess condition-mediated population dynamics resulting in changing fecundity, age at sexual maturation and marine survival rate. The model is parameterized using data from the North Esk system, north-east Scotland. Both constant and density-dependent juvenile survival rates are considered. We show that even small sea lice-mediated changes in mean body condition of MSW can cause substantial population declines, whereas 1SW condition is less influential. Density dependence alleviates the condition-mediated population effect. The resilience of the population to demographic perturbations declines as adult condition is reduced. Indirect demographic changes in salmonid life-history traits (e.g., body condition) are often considered unimportant for population trajectory. The model shows that Atlantic salmon population dynamics can be highly responsive to sea lice-mediated effects on adult body condition, thus highlighting the importance of non-lethal parasitic long-term effects. © 2017 The Authors Journal of Fish Diseases Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Complex Ancient Genetic Structure and Cultural Transitions in Southern African Populations.

PubMed

Montinaro, Francesco; Busby, George B J; Gonzalez-Santos, Miguel; Oosthuitzen, Ockie; Oosthuitzen, Erika; Anagnostou, Paolo; Destro-Bisol, Giovanni; Pascali, Vincenzo L; Capelli, Cristian

2017-01-01

The characterization of the structure of southern African populations has been the subject of numerous genetic, medical, linguistic, archaeological, and anthropological investigations. Current diversity in the subcontinent is the result of complex events of genetic admixture and cultural contact between early inhabitants and migrants that arrived in the region over the last 2000 years. Here, we analyze 1856 individuals from 91 populations, comprising novel and published genotype data, to characterize the genetic ancestry profiles of 631 individuals from 51 southern African populations. Combining both local ancestry and allele frequency based analyses, we identify a tripartite, ancient, Khoesan-related genetic structure. This structure correlates neither with linguistic affiliation nor subsistence strategy, but with geography, revealing the importance of isolation-by-distance dynamics in the area. Fine-mapping of these components in southern African populations reveals admixture and cultural reversion involving several Khoesan groups, and highlights that Bantu speakers and Coloured individuals have different mixtures of these ancient ancestries. Copyright © 2017 Montinaro et al.

Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?

PubMed Central

Lutz, Wolfgang; KC, Samir

2010-01-01

The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8–10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA. PMID:20713384

Connecting micro dynamics and population distributions in system dynamics models

PubMed Central

Rahmandad, Hazhir; Chen, Hsin-Jen; Xue, Hong; Wang, Youfa

2014-01-01

Researchers use system dynamics models to capture the mean behavior of groups of indistinguishable population elements (e.g., people) aggregated in stock variables. Yet, many modeling problems require capturing the heterogeneity across elements with respect to some attribute(s) (e.g., body weight). This paper presents a new method to connect the micro-level dynamics associated with elements in a population with the macro-level population distribution along an attribute of interest without the need to explicitly model every element. We apply the proposed method to model the distribution of Body Mass Index and its changes over time in a sample population of American women obtained from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Comparing the results with those obtained from an individual-based model that captures the same phenomena shows that our proposed method delivers accurate results with less computation than the individual-based model. PMID:25620842

Economics of an aging population.

PubMed Central

Jackson, P M

1985-01-01

Throughout this century, as in many other countries, the proportion of the British population in the older age groups has increased. The effect this has on the economy is discussed. Topics covered include the determinants of the economic status of old people; the reasons for the choice of retirement ages; the burden of the aged on younger generations; the costs of pension schemes; the disincentive effects of pensions on savings; and poverty in old age. PMID:4009105

The dynamics of fish populations in the Palancar stream,a small tributary of the river Guadalquivir, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bravo, Ramón; Soriguer, Mila C.; Villar, Noelia; Hernando, José A.

2001-02-01

The relationship between flooding and changes in the size distribution of fish populations in the Palancar stream confirms observations in other rivers. On average, density decreased by 36.2 % and biomass increased by 14.5 %, passing from a period of severe drought to one of heavier than normal rains. Precipitation is the most important of the many factors affecting the populations of the Palancar stream; the most evident changes all occurred after the drought. During the drought period, the marked seasonal fluctuation in flow was the most important factor regulating the population dynamics. Fish density and biomass varied in proportion to the water volume. During the rainy period, the studied section of the river was found to be an important reproduction and nursery area, with juveniles and individuals of reproduction age dominating. The presence of Micropterus salmoides, an introduced piscivorous species, is another factor affecting the population dynamics in the Palancar stream. The observed absence of age 0+ individuals of the dominant populations is considered a direct effect of predation.

Prevalence of ageing-associated cognitive decline in an elderly population.

PubMed

Hanninen, T; Koivisto, K; Reinikainen, K J; Helkala, E L; Soininen, H; Mykkänen, L; Laakso, M; Riekkinen, P J

1996-05-01

Different diagnostic definitions have been proposed for use in the characterization of mild cognitive disorders associated with ageing. Previously, we reported a high (38.4%) prevalence of age-associated memory impairment (AAMI) using the National Institute of Mental Health criteria in an elderly population. Recently, a work group of the International Psychogeriatric Association proposed criteria for 'ageing-associated cognitive decline' (AACD). The objective of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of AACD in an elderly population. We examined 403 randomly selected subjects (68-78 years of age) with tests of memory, cognitive processing, attention, verbal and visuoconstructive functions and with a structured questionnaire for health status and subjective complaints of cognitive decline. In all, 26.6% of the subjects (24.4% of women, 30. 1% or men) fulfilled the AACD criteria. The prevalence was slightly related to age and education. The rate was lowest in the oldest age of 75 - 78 years (20.5%) and highest in the age of 71 -74 years (30%). Subjects with less than 4 years of education had the lowest (14.3%) and subjects with more than 6 years of education had the highest rate (29.4%) for AACD. However, the differences between these subgroups were not statistically significant. These results suggest that the prevalence of AACD is lower than that of AAMI. As AAMI tends to identify a very heterogeneous subject group, the AACD diagnosis, which takes into account age and education specific norms in its inclusion criteria, might prove superior to AAMI in differentiating a meaningful subgroup from an elderly population both for research purposes and in clinical settings.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

PubMed

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

The dynamical origin of multiple populations in intermediate-age clusters in the Magellanic Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Jongsuk; de Grijs, Richard; Askar, Abbas; Berczik, Peter; Li, Chengyuan; Wang, Long; Deng, Licai; Kouwenhoven, M. B. N.; Giersz, Mirek; Spurzem, Rainer

2017-11-01

Numerical simulations were carried out to study the origin of multiple stellar populations in the intermediate-age clusters NGC 411 and NGC 1806 in the Magellanic Clouds. We performed NBODY6++ simulations based on two different formation scenarios, an ad hoc formation model where second-generation (SG) stars are formed inside a cluster of first-generation (FG) stars using the gas accumulated from the external intergalactic medium and a minor merger model of unequal mass (MSG/MFG ∼ 5-10 per cent) clusters with an age difference of a few hundred million years. We compared our results such as the radial profile of the SG-to-FG number ratio with observations on the assumption that the SG stars in the observations are composed of cluster members, and confirmed that both the ad hoc formation and merger scenarios reproduce the observed radial trend of the SG-to-FG number ratio, which shows less centrally concentrated SG than FG stars. It is difficult to constrain the formation scenario for the multiple populations by only using the spatial distribution of the SG stars. SG stars originating from the merger scenario show a significant velocity anisotropy and rotational features compared to those from the ad hoc formation scenario. Thus, observations aimed at kinematic properties like velocity anisotropy or rotational velocities for SG stars should be obtained to better understand the formation of the multiple populations in these clusters. This is, however, beyond current instrumentation capabilities.

Cooperation and age structure in spatial games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhen; Wang, Zhen; Zhu, Xiaodan; Arenzon, Jeferson J.

2012-01-01

We study the evolution of cooperation in evolutionary spatial games when the payoff correlates with the increasing age of players (the level of correlation is set through a single parameter, α). The demographic heterogeneous age distribution, directly affecting the outcome of the game, is thus shown to be responsible for enhancing the cooperative behavior in the population. In particular, moderate values of α allow cooperators not only to survive but to outcompete defectors, even when the temptation to defect is large and the ageless, standard α=0 model does not sustain cooperation. The interplay between age structure and noise is also considered, and we obtain the conditions for optimal levels of cooperation.

Demographic Ageing of the South African Population: Past (1945-1985) and Expected Trends (1985-2035). Report S-190.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hofmeyr, B. E.; Mostert, W. P.

This report presents demographic data for four racial populations in South Africa (Blacks, Whites, Coloureds, and Asians) and examines trends in the aging of each of these populations. The age structure of a population is determined most directly by fertility and mortality. The findings of this report support a general theory to the effect that…

11 CFR 110.18 - Voting age population.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 11 Federal Elections 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Voting age population. 110.18 Section 110.18 Federal Elections FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION GENERAL CONTRIBUTION AND EXPENDITURE LIMITATIONS AND... population of the United States, of each State, and of each Congressional district. The term voting age...

Temporal dynamics and population genetic structure of Fusarium graminearum in the upper Midwestern United States.

PubMed

Liang, J M; Xayamongkhon, H; Broz, K; Dong, Y; McCormick, S P; Abramova, S; Ward, T J; Ma, Z H; Kistler, H C

2014-12-01

Fusarium graminearum sensu stricto causes Fusarium head blight (FHB) in wheat and barley, and contaminates grains with several trichothecene mycotoxins, causing destructive yield losses and economic impact in the United States. Recently, a F. graminearum strain collected from Minnesota (MN) was determined to produce a novel trichothecene toxin, called NX-2. In order to determine the spatial and temporal dynamics of NX-2 producing strains in MN, North Dakota (ND) and South Dakota (SD), a total of 463 F. graminearum strains were collected from three sampling periods, 1999-2000, 2006-2007 and 2011-2013. A PCR-RFLP based diagnostic test was developed and validated for NX-2 producing strains based on polymorphisms in the Tri1 gene. Trichothecene biosynthesis gene (Tri gene)-based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays and ten PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) markers were used to genotype all strains. NX-2 strains were detected in each sampling period but with a very low overall frequency (2.8%) and were mainly collected near the borders of MN, ND and SD. Strains with the 3ADON chemotype were relatively infrequent in 1999-2000 (4.5%) but increased to 29.4% in 2006-2007 and 17.2% in 2011-2013. The distribution of 3ADON producing strains also expanded from a few border counties between ND and MN in 1999-2000, southward toward the border between SD and MN in 2006-2007 and westward in 2011-2013. Genetic differentiation between 2006-2007 and 2011-2013 populations (3%) was much lower than that between 1999-2000 and 2006-2007 (22%) or 1999-2000 and 2011-2013 (20%) suggesting that most change to population genetic structure of F. graminearum occurred between 1999-2000 and 2006-2007. This change was associated with the emergence of a new population consisting largely of individuals with a 3ADON chemotype. A Bayesian clustering analysis suggested that NX-2 chemotype strains are part of a previously described Upper Midwestern population. However, these analyses

Ageing populations: the challenges ahead

PubMed Central

Christensen, Kaare; Doblhammer, Gabriele; Rau, Roland; Vaupel, James W

2009-01-01

If the pace of increase in life expectancy in developed countries over the past two centuries continues through the 21st century, most babies born since 2000 in France, Germany, Italy, the UK, the USA, Canada, Japan, and other countries with long life expectancies will celebrate their 100th birthdays. Although trends differ between countries, populations of nearly all such countries are ageing as a result of low fertility, low immigration, and long lives. A key question is: are increases in life expectancy accompanied by a concurrent postponement of functional limitations and disability? The answer is still open, but research suggests that ageing processes are modifiable and that people are living longer without severe disability. This finding, together with technological and medical development and redistribution of work, will be important for our chances to meet the challenges of ageing populations. PMID:19801098

Alternating event processes during lifetimes: population dynamics and statistical inference.

PubMed

Shinohara, Russell T; Sun, Yifei; Wang, Mei-Cheng

2018-01-01

In the literature studying recurrent event data, a large amount of work has been focused on univariate recurrent event processes where the occurrence of each event is treated as a single point in time. There are many applications, however, in which univariate recurrent events are insufficient to characterize the feature of the process because patients experience nontrivial durations associated with each event. This results in an alternating event process where the disease status of a patient alternates between exacerbations and remissions. In this paper, we consider the dynamics of a chronic disease and its associated exacerbation-remission process over two time scales: calendar time and time-since-onset. In particular, over calendar time, we explore population dynamics and the relationship between incidence, prevalence and duration for such alternating event processes. We provide nonparametric estimation techniques for characteristic quantities of the process. In some settings, exacerbation processes are observed from an onset time until death; to account for the relationship between the survival and alternating event processes, nonparametric approaches are developed for estimating exacerbation process over lifetime. By understanding the population dynamics and within-process structure, the paper provide a new and general way to study alternating event processes.

Analysis of near infrared spectra for age-grading of wild populations of Anopheles gambiae

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A greater understanding of the age-structure of mosquito populations, especially malaria vectors such as Anopheles gambiae, is important for assessing the risk of infectious mosquitoes, and how vector control interventions may affect this structure. The use of near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) for a...

Effect of temperature on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusoff, Nuraini; Tokachil, Mohd Najir

2015-10-01

Aedes aegypti is one of the main vectors in the transmission of dengue fever. Its abundance may cause the spread of the disease to be more intense. In the study of its biological life cycle, temperature was found to increase the development rate of each stage of this species and thus, accelerate the process of the development from egg to adult. In this paper, a Lefkovitch matrix model will be used to study the stage-structured population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. In constructing the transition matrix, temperature will be taken into account. As a case study, temperature recorded at the Subang Meteorological Station for year 2006 until 2010 will be used. Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti at maximum, average and minimum temperature for each year will be simulated and compared. It is expected that the higher the temperature, the faster the mosquito will breed. The result will be compared to the number of dengue fever incidences to see their relationship.

Structural Imaging Measures of Brain Aging

PubMed Central

Lockhart, Samuel N.

2014-01-01

During the course of normal aging, biological changes occur in the brain that are associated with changes in cognitive ability. This review presents data from neuroimaging studies of primarily “normal” or healthy brain aging. As such, we focus on research in unimpaired or nondemented older adults, but also include findings from lifespan studies that include younger and middle aged individuals as well as from populations with prodromal or clinically symptomatic disease such as cerebrovascular or Alzheimer’s disease. This review predominantly addresses structural MRI biomarkers, such as volumetric or thickness measures from anatomical images, and measures of white matter injury and integrity respectively from FLAIR or DTI, and includes complementary data from PET and cognitive or clinical testing as appropriate. The findings reveal highly consistent age-related differences in brain structure, particularly frontal lobe and medial temporal regions that are also accompanied by age-related differences in frontal and medial temporal lobe mediated cognitive abilities. Newer findings also suggest that degeneration of specific white matter tracts such as those passing through the genu and splenium of the corpus callosum may also be related to age-related differences in cognitive performance. Interpretation of these findings, however, must be tempered by the fact that comorbid diseases such as cerebrovascular and Alzheimer’s disease also increase in prevalence with advancing age. As such, this review discusses challenges related to interpretation of current theories of cognitive aging in light of the common occurrence of these later-life diseases. Understanding the differences between “Normal” and “Healthy” brain aging and identifying potential modifiable risk factors for brain aging is critical to inform potential treatments to stall or reverse the effects of brain aging and possibly extend cognitive health for our aging society. PMID:25146995

Structural imaging measures of brain aging.

PubMed

Lockhart, Samuel N; DeCarli, Charles

2014-09-01

During the course of normal aging, biological changes occur in the brain that are associated with changes in cognitive ability. This review presents data from neuroimaging studies of primarily "normal" or healthy brain aging. As such, we focus on research in unimpaired or nondemented older adults, but also include findings from lifespan studies that include younger and middle aged individuals as well as from populations with prodromal or clinically symptomatic disease such as cerebrovascular or Alzheimer's disease. This review predominantly addresses structural MRI biomarkers, such as volumetric or thickness measures from anatomical images, and measures of white matter injury and integrity respectively from FLAIR or DTI, and includes complementary data from PET and cognitive or clinical testing as appropriate. The findings reveal highly consistent age-related differences in brain structure, particularly frontal lobe and medial temporal regions that are also accompanied by age-related differences in frontal and medial temporal lobe mediated cognitive abilities. Newer findings also suggest that degeneration of specific white matter tracts such as those passing through the genu and splenium of the corpus callosum may also be related to age-related differences in cognitive performance. Interpretation of these findings, however, must be tempered by the fact that comorbid diseases such as cerebrovascular and Alzheimer's disease also increase in prevalence with advancing age. As such, this review discusses challenges related to interpretation of current theories of cognitive aging in light of the common occurrence of these later-life diseases. Understanding the differences between "Normal" and "Healthy" brain aging and identifying potential modifiable risk factors for brain aging is critical to inform potential treatments to stall or reverse the effects of brain aging and possibly extend cognitive health for our aging society.

Shape-related characteristics of age-related differences in subcortical structures.

PubMed

Madan, Christopher R

2018-01-11

With an increasing aging population, it is important to understand biological markers of aging. Subcortical volume is known to differ with age; additionally considering shape-related characteristics may provide a better index of age-related differences. Fractal dimensionality is more sensitive to age-related differences, but is borne out of mathematical principles, rather than neurobiological relevance. We considered four distinct measures of shape and how they relate to aging and fractal dimensionality: surface-to-volume ratio, sphericity, long-axis curvature, and surface texture. Structural MRIs from a combined sample of over 600 healthy adults were used to measure age-related differences in the structure of the thalamus, putamen, caudate, and hippocampus. For each, volume and fractal dimensionality were calculated, as well as four distinct shape measures. These measures were examined for their utility in explaining age-related variability in brain structure. The four shape measures were able to account for 80%-90% of the variance in fractal dimensionality. Of the distinct shape measures, surface-to-volume ratio was the most sensitive biomarker. Though volume is often used to characterize inter-individual differences in subcortical structures, our results demonstrate that additional measures can be useful complements. Our results indicate that shape characteristics are useful biological markers of aging.

Evolutionary snowdrift game incorporating costly punishment in structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Nat W. H.; Xu, C.; Tey, Siew Kian; Yap, Yee Jiun; Hui, P. M.

2013-01-01

The role of punishment and the effects of a structured population in promoting cooperation are important issues. Within a recent model of snowdrift game (SG) incorporating a costly punishing strategy (P), we study the effects of a population connected through a square lattice. The punishers, who carry basically a cooperative (C) character, are willing to pay a cost α so as to punish a non-cooperative (D) opponent by β. Depending on α, β, the cost-to-benefit ratio r in SG, and the initial conditions, the system evolves into different phases that could be homogeneous or inhomogeneous. The spatial structure imposes geometrical constraint on how one agent is affected by neighboring agents. Results of extensive numerical simulations, both for the steady state and the dynamics, are presented. Possible phases are identified and discussed, and isolated phases in the r-β space are identified as special local structures of strategies that are stable due to the lattice structure. In contrast to a well-mixed population where punishers are suppressed due to the cost of punishment, the altruistic punishing strategy can flourish and prevail for appropriate values of the parameters, implying an enhancement in cooperation by imposing punishments in a structured population. The system could evolve to a phase corresponding to the coexistence of C, D, and P strategies at some particular payoff parameters, and such a phase is absent in a well-mixed population. The pair approximation, a commonly used analytic approach, is extended from a two-strategy system to a three-strategy system. We show that the pair approximation can, at best, capture the numerical results only qualitatively. Due to the improper way of including spatial correlation imposed by the lattice structure, the approximation does not give the frequencies of C, D, and P accurately and fails to give the homogeneous AllD and AllP phases.

Development of structural health monitoring techniques using dynamics testing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

James, G.H. III

Today`s society depends upon many structures (such as aircraft, bridges, wind turbines, offshore platforms, buildings, and nuclear weapons) which are nearing the end of their design lifetime. Since these structures cannot be economically replaced, techniques for structural health monitoring must be developed and implemented. Modal and structural dynamics measurements hold promise for the global non-destructive inspection of a variety of structures since surface measurements of a vibrating structure can provide information about the health of the internal members without costly (or impossible) dismantling of the structure. In order to develop structural health monitoring for application to operational structures, developments inmore » four areas have been undertaken within this project: operational evaluation, diagnostic measurements, information condensation, and damage identification. The developments in each of these four aspects of structural health monitoring have been exercised on a broad range of experimental data. This experimental data has been extracted from structures from several application areas which include aging aircraft, wind energy, aging bridges, offshore structures, structural supports, and mechanical parts. As a result of these advances, Sandia National Laboratories is in a position to perform further advanced development, operational implementation, and technical consulting for a broad class of the nation`s aging infrastructure problems.« less

Is Low Fertility Really a Problem? Population Aging, Dependency, and Consumption*

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. While low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living PMID:25301626

Combining facial dynamics with appearance for age estimation.

PubMed

Dibeklioglu, Hamdi; Alnajar, Fares; Ali Salah, Albert; Gevers, Theo

2015-06-01

Estimating the age of a human from the captured images of his/her face is a challenging problem. In general, the existing approaches to this problem use appearance features only. In this paper, we show that in addition to appearance information, facial dynamics can be leveraged in age estimation. We propose a method to extract and use dynamic features for age estimation, using a person's smile. Our approach is tested on a large, gender-balanced database with 400 subjects, with an age range between 8 and 76. In addition, we introduce a new database on posed disgust expressions with 324 subjects in the same age range, and evaluate the reliability of the proposed approach when used with another expression. State-of-the-art appearance-based age estimation methods from the literature are implemented as baseline. We demonstrate that for each of these methods, the addition of the proposed dynamic features results in statistically significant improvement. We further propose a novel hierarchical age estimation architecture based on adaptive age grouping. We test our approach extensively, including an exploration of spontaneous versus posed smile dynamics, and gender-specific age estimation. We show that using spontaneity information reduces the mean absolute error by up to 21%, advancing the state of the art for facial age estimation.

[Aging of the working population in the European Union].

PubMed

Ilmarinen, J; Costa, G

2000-01-01

The working population over 50 years of age will grow considerably during the next 15 years. After 2010, the number of retired people over 65 years of age will be almost double that of 1995, with a strong impact also on working conditions and the labour market. Work ability is a dynamic process that changes, through its components, throughout life and is the result of the interaction between individual resources (including health, functional capacity, education and skills), working conditions, and the surrounding society. Work ability creates the basis for the employability of an individual, which can be supported by a number of actions (e.g. legislation on work and retirement) and social attitudes (e.g. age discrimination). Consequently, the prevalence of limitations in work ability varies significantly according to how it is evaluated and the frequency of work disability can vary considerably in different times, locations and populations. The Work Ability Index, created and used in a Finnish 11-year longitudinal study, has been proved a useful practical tool for the assessment of workers' fitness and a good predictor of work disability. Measures able to restore, maintain or promote work ability depend on the current work status and the needs of the target groups, and must concentrate on work content, physical work environment and the work community. The actions targeted towards the individual, on the other hand, concentrate on strengthening the health status and functional resources of the workers and developing professional expertise and skills. Correctly targeted and integrated measures improve work ability of ageing workers and therefore lead to improved work quality, increased productivity and also improved quality of life and well-being. They also have positive long-term effects on the "third age", when the worker retires.

Structural dynamics verification facility study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiraly, L. J.; Hirchbein, M. S.; Mcaleese, J. M.; Fleming, D. P.

1981-01-01

The need for a structural dynamics verification facility to support structures programs was studied. Most of the industry operated facilities are used for highly focused research, component development, and problem solving, and are not used for the generic understanding of the coupled dynamic response of major engine subsystems. Capabilities for the proposed facility include: the ability to both excite and measure coupled structural dynamic response of elastic blades on elastic shafting, the mechanical simulation of various dynamical loadings representative of those seen in operating engines, and the measurement of engine dynamic deflections and interface forces caused by alternative engine mounting configurations and compliances.

Population dynamics in non-homogeneous environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alards, Kim M. J.; Tesser, Francesca; Toschi, Federico

2014-11-01

For organisms living in aquatic ecosystems the presence of fluid transport can have a strong influence on the dynamics of populations and on evolution of species. In particular, displacements due to self-propulsion, summed up with turbulent dispersion at larger scales, strongly influence the local densities and thus population and genetic dynamics. Real marine environments are furthermore characterized by a high degree of non-homogeneities. In the case of population fronts propagating in ``fast'' turbulence, with respect to the population duplication time, the flow effect can be studied by replacing the microscopic diffusivity with an effective turbulent diffusivity. In the opposite case of ``slow'' turbulence the advection by the flow has to be considered locally. Here we employ numerical simulations to study the influence of non-homogeneities in the diffusion coefficient of reacting individuals of different species expanding in a 2 dimensional space. Moreover, to explore the influence of advection, we consider a population expanding in the presence of simple velocity fields like cellular flows. The output is analyzed in terms of front roughness, front shape, propagation speed and, concerning the genetics, by means of heterozygosity and local and global extinction probabilities.