Different Context but Similar Cognitive Structures: Older Adults in Rural Bangladesh.

PubMed

Sternäng, Ola; Lövdén, Martin; Kabir, Zarina N; Hamadani, Jena D; Wahlin, Åke

2016-06-01

Most research in cognitive aging is based on literate participants from high-income and Western populations. The extent to which findings generalize to low-income and illiterate populations is unknown. The main aim was to examine the structure of between-person differences in cognitive functions among elderly from rural Bangladesh. We used data from the Poverty and Health in Aging (PHA) project in Bangladesh. The participants (n = 452) were in the age range 60-92 years. Structural equation modeling was used to estimate the fit of a five-factor model (episodic recall, episodic recognition, verbal fluency, semantic knowledge, processing speed) and to examine whether the model generalized across age, sex, and literacy. This study demonstrates that an established model of cognition is valid also among older persons from rural Bangladesh. The model demonstrated strong (or scalar) invariance for age, and partial strong invariance for sex and literacy. Semantic knowledge and processing speed showed weak (or metric) sex invariance, and semantic knowledge demonstrated also sensitivity to illiteracy. In general, women performed poorer on all abilities. The structure of individual cognitive differences established in Western populations also fits a population in rural Bangladesh well. This is an important prerequisite for comparisons of cognitive functioning (e.g., declarative memory) across cultures. It is also worth noting that absolute sex differences in cognitive performance among rural elderly in Bangladesh differ from those usually found in Western samples.

Dynamics of climate-based malaria transmission model with age-structured human population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addawe, Joel; Pajimola, Aprimelle Kris

2016-10-01

In this paper, we proposed to study the dynamics of malaria transmission with periodic birth rate of the vector and an age-structure for the human population. The human population is divided into two compartments: pre-school (0-5 years) and the rest of the human population. We showed the existence of a disease-free equilibrium point. Using published epidemiological parameters, we use numerical simulations to show potential effect of climate change in the dynamics of age-structured malaria transmission. Numerical simulations suggest that there exists an asymptotically attractive solution that is positive and periodic.

The effects of temperature and diet on age grading and population age structure determination in Drosophila.

PubMed

Aw, Wen C; Ballard, J William O

2013-10-01

The age structure of natural population is of interest in physiological, life history and ecological studies but it is often difficult to determine. One methodological problem is that samples may need to be invasively sampled preventing subsequent taxonomic curation. A second problem is that it can be very expensive to accurately determine the age structure of given population because large sample sizes are often necessary. In this study, we test the effects of temperature (17 °C, 23 °C and 26 °C) and diet (standard cornmeal and low calorie diet) on the accuracy of the non-invasive, inexpensive and high throughput near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) technique to determine the age of Drosophila flies. Composite and simplified calibration models were developed for each sex. Independent sets for each temperature and diet treatments with flies not involved in calibration model were then used to validate the accuracy of the calibration models. The composite NIRS calibration model was generated by including flies reared under all temperatures and diets. This approach permits rapid age measurement and age structure determination in large population of flies as less than or equal to 9 days, or more than 9 days old with 85-97% and 64-99% accuracy, respectively. The simplified calibration models were generated by including flies reared at 23 °C on standard diet. Low accuracy rates were observed when simplified calibration models were used to identify (a) Drosophila reared at 17 °C and 26 °C and (b) 23 °C with low calorie diet. These results strongly suggest that appropriate calibration models need to be developed in the laboratory before this technique can be reliably used in field. These calibration models should include the major environmental variables that change across space and time in the particular natural population to be studied. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age-structured mark-recapture analysis: A virtual-population-analysis-based model for analyzing age-structured capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Martell, S.J.D.

2006-01-01

We present a new model to estimate capture probabilities, survival, abundance, and recruitment using traditional Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methods within a standard fisheries virtual population analysis framework. This approach compares the numbers of marked and unmarked fish at age captured in each year of sampling with predictions based on estimated vulnerabilities and abundance in a likelihood function. Recruitment to the earliest age at which fish can be tagged is estimated by using a virtual population analysis method to back-calculate the expected numbers of unmarked fish at risk of capture. By using information from both marked and unmarked animals in a standard fisheries age structure framework, this approach is well suited to the sparse data situations common in long-term capture-recapture programs with variable sampling effort. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

A fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model for population viability analysis of fish: Lower Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Albers, Janice; Green, Nicholas; Moran, Edward H.

2017-01-01

We develop a fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model suitable for population viability analysis (PVA) of fish and demonstrate its use with the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) of the Lower Missouri River as an example. The model incorporates three levels of variance: parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level, temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations over time) applied at the time-step level, and implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) applied within the time-step level. We found that population dynamics were most sensitive to survival rates, particularly age-2+ survival, and to fecundity-at-length. The inclusion of variance (unpartitioned or partitioned), stocking, or both generally decreased the influence of individual parameters on population growth rate. The partitioning of variance into parameter and temporal components had a strong influence on the importance of individual parameters, uncertainty of model predictions, and quasiextinction risk (i.e., pallid sturgeon population size falling below 50 age-1+ individuals). Our findings show that appropriately applying variance in PVA is important when evaluating the relative importance of parameters, and reinforce the need for better and more precise estimates of crucial life-history parameters for pallid sturgeon.

Selection Experiments in the Penna Model for Biological Aging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medeiros, G.; Idiart, M. A.; de Almeida, R. M. C.

We consider the Penna model for biological aging to investigate correlations between early fertility and late life survival rates in populations at equilibrium. We consider inherited initial reproduction ages together with a reproduction cost translated in a probability that mother and offspring die at birth, depending on the mother age. For convenient sets of parameters, the equilibrated populations present genetic variability in what regards both genetically programmed death age and initial reproduction age. In the asexual Penna model, a negative correlation between early life fertility and late life survival rates naturally emerges in the stationary solutions. In the sexual Penna model, selection experiments are performed where individuals are sorted by initial reproduction age from the equilibrated populations and the separated populations are evolved independently. After a transient, a negative correlation between early fertility and late age survival rates also emerges in the sense that populations that start reproducing earlier present smaller average genetically programmed death age. These effects appear due to the age structure of populations in the steady state solution of the evolution equations. We claim that the same demographic effects may be playing an important role in selection experiments in the laboratory.

Interacting Effects of Newcastle Disease Transmission and Illegal Trade on a Wild Population of White-Winged Parakeets in Peru: A Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Daut, Elizabeth F.; Lahodny, Glenn; Peterson, Markus J.; Ivanek, Renata

2016-01-01

Illegal wildlife-pet trade can threaten wildlife populations directly from overharvest, but also indirectly as a pathway for introduction of infectious diseases. This study evaluated consequences of a hypothetical introduction of Newcastle disease (ND) into a wild population of Peru’s most trafficked psittacine, the white-winged parakeet (Brotogeris versicolurus), through release of infected confiscated individuals. We developed two mathematical models that describe ND transmission and the influence of illegal harvest in a homogeneous (model 1) and age-structured population of parakeets (model 2). Infection transmission dynamics and harvest were consistent for all individuals in model 1, which rendered it mathematically more tractable compared to the more complex, age-structured model 2 that separated the host population into juveniles and adults. We evaluated the interaction of ND transmission and harvest through changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) and short-term host population dynamics. Our findings demonstrated that ND introduction would likely provoke considerable disease-related mortality, up to 24% population decline in two years, but high harvest rates would dampen the magnitude of the outbreak. Model 2 produced moderate differences in disease dynamics compared to model 1 (R0 = 3.63 and 2.66, respectively), but highlighted the importance of adult disease dynamics in diminishing the epidemic potential. Therefore, we suggest that future studies should use a more realistic, age-structured model. Finally, for the presumptive risk that illegal trade of white-winged parakeets could introduce ND into wild populations, our results suggest that while high harvest rates may have a protective effect on the population by reducing virus transmission, the combined effects of high harvest and disease-induced mortality may threaten population survival. These results capture the complexity and consequences of the interaction between ND transmission and harvest in a wild parrot population and highlight the importance of preventing illegal trade. PMID:26816214

The leverage of demographic dynamics on carbon dioxide emissions: does age structure matter?

PubMed

Zagheni, Emilio

2011-02-01

This article provides a methodological contribution to the study of the effect of changes in population age structure on carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions. First, I propose a generalization of the IPAT equation to a multisector economy with an age-structured population and discuss the insights that can be obtained in the context of stable population theory. Second, I suggest a statistical model of household consumption as a function of household size and age structure to quantitatively evaluate the extent of economies of scale in consumption of energy-intensive goods, and to estimate age-specific profiles of consumption of energy-intensive goods and of CO(2) emissions. Third, I offer an illustration of the methodologies using data for the United States. The analysis shows that per-capita CO(2) emissions increase with age until the individual is in his or her 60s, and then emissions tend to decrease. Holding everything else constant, the expected change in U.S. population age distribution during the next four decades is likely to have a small, but noticeable, positive impact on CO(2) emissions.

Modeling snail breeding in a bioregenerative life support system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovalev, V. S.; Manukovsky, N. S.; Tikhomirov, A. A.; Kolmakova, A. A.

2015-07-01

The discrete-time model of snail breeding consists of two sequentially linked submodels: "Stoichiometry" and "Population". In both submodels, a snail population is split up into twelve age groups within one year of age. The first submodel is used to simulate the metabolism of a single snail in each age group via the stoichiometric equation; the second submodel is used to optimize the age structure and the size of the snail population. Daily intake of snail meat by crewmen is a guideline which specifies the population productivity. The mass exchange of the snail unit inhabited by land snails of Achatina fulica is given as an outcome of step-by-step modeling. All simulations are performed using Solver Add-In of Excel 2007.

Population dynamics and evaluation of alternative management strategies for nonnative Lake Trout in Priest Lake, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ng, Elizabeth L.; Fredericks, Jim P.; Quist, Michael C.

2016-01-01

Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush have been introduced widely throughout the western USA to enhance recreational fisheries, but high predatory demand can create challenges for management of yield and trophy fisheries alike. Lake Trout were introduced to Priest Lake, Idaho, during the 1920s, but few fishery-independent data are available to guide current or future management actions. We collected fishery-independent data to describe population dynamics and evaluate potential management scenarios using an age-structured population model. Lake Trout in Priest Lake were characterized by fast growth at young ages, which resulted in young age at maturity. However, adult growth rates and body condition were lower than for other Lake Trout populations. High rates of skipped spawning (>50%) were also observed. Model projections indicated that the population was growing (λ = 1.03). Eradication could be achieved by increasing annual mortality to 0.32, approximately twice the current rate. A protected slot length limit could increase population length-structure, but few fish grew fast enough to exit the slot. In contrast, a juvenile removal scenario targeting age-2 to age-5 Lake Trout maintained short-term harvest of trophy-length individuals while reducing overall population abundance.

Age structure changes and extraordinary lifespan in wild medfly populations.

PubMed

Carey, James R; Papadopoulos, Nikos T; Müller, Hans-Georg; Katsoyannos, Byron I; Kouloussis, Nikos A; Wang, Jane-Ling; Wachter, Kenneth; Yu, Wei; Liedo, Pablo

2008-06-01

The main purpose of this study was to test the hypotheses that major changes in age structure occur in wild populations of the Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly) and that a substantial fraction of individuals survive to middle age and beyond (> 3-4 weeks). We thus brought reference life tables and deconvolution models to bear on medfly mortality data gathered from a 3-year study of field-captured individuals that were monitored in the laboratory. The average time-to-death of captured females differed between sampling dates by 23.9, 22.7, and 37.0 days in the 2003, 2004, and 2005 field seasons, respectively. These shifts in average times-to-death provided evidence of changes in population age structure. Estimates indicated that middle-aged medflies (> 30 days) were common in the population. A surprise in the study was the extraordinary longevity observed in field-captured medflies. For example, 19 captured females but no reference females survived in the laboratory for 140 days or more, and 6 captured but no reference males survived in the laboratory for 170 days or more. This paper advances the study of aging in the wild by introducing a new method for estimating age structure in insect populations, demonstrating that major changes in age structure occur in field populations of insects, showing that middle-aged individuals are common in the wild, and revealing the extraordinary lifespans of wild-caught individuals due to their early life experience in the field.

Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-05-01

Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

Ecotoxicology and spatial modeling in population dynamics: an illustration with brown trout.

PubMed

Chaumot, Arnaud; Charles, Sandrine; Flammarion, Patrick; Auger, Pierre

2003-05-01

We developed a multiregion matrix population model to explore how the demography of a hypothetical brown trout population living in a river network varies in response to different spatial scenarios of cadmium contamination. Age structure, spatial distribution, and demographic and migration processes are taken into account in the model. Chronic or acute cadmium concentrations affect the demographic parameters at the scale of the river range. The outputs of the model constitute population-level end points (the asymptotic population growth rate, the stable age structure, and the asymptotic spatial distribution) that allow comparing the different spatial scenarios of contamination regarding the demographic response at the scale of the whole river network. An analysis of the sensitivity of these end points to lower order parameters enables us to link the local effects of cadmium to the global demographic behavior of the brown trout population. Such a link is of broad interest in the point of view of ecotoxicological management.

Investigating the effect of chemical stress and resource ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Modeling exposure and recovery of fish and wildlife populations after stressor mitigation serves as a basis for evaluating population status and remediation success. The Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) is an important and well-studied model organism for understanding the effects of pollutants and other stressors in estuarine and marine ecosystems. Herein, we develop a density dependent matrix population model for Atlantic killifish that analyzes both size-structure and age class-structure of the population so that we could readily incorporate output from a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model currently under development. This population modeling approach emphasizes application in conjunction with field monitoring efforts (e.g., through effects-based monitoring programs) and/or laboratory analysis to link effects due to chemical stress to adverse outcomes in whole organisms and populations. We applied the model using data for killifish exposed to dioxin-like compounds, taken from a previously published study. Specifically, the model was used to investigate population trajectories for Atlantic killifish with dietary exposures to 112, 296, and 875 pg/g of dioxin with effects on fertility and survival rates. All effects were expressed relative to control fish. Further, the population model was employed to examine age and size distributions of a population exposed to resource limitation in addition to chemical stress. For each dietary exposure concentration o

An Experimental Approach to Mathematical Modeling in Biology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ledder, Glenn

2008-01-01

The simplest age-structured population models update a population vector via multiplication by a matrix. These linear models offer an opportunity to introduce mathematical modeling to students of limited mathematical sophistication and background. We begin with a detailed discussion of mathematical modeling, particularly in a biological context.…

Steady states and outbreaks of two-phase nonlinear age-structured model of population dynamics with discrete time delay.

PubMed

Akimenko, Vitalii; Anguelov, Roumen

2017-12-01

In this paper we study the nonlinear age-structured model of a polycyclic two-phase population dynamics including delayed effect of population density growth on the mortality. Both phases are modelled as a system of initial boundary values problem for semi-linear transport equation with delay and initial problem for nonlinear delay ODE. The obtained system is studied both theoretically and numerically. Three different regimes of population dynamics for asymptotically stable states of autonomous systems are obtained in numerical experiments for the different initial values of population density. The quasi-periodical travelling wave solutions are studied numerically for the autonomous system with the different values of time delays and for the system with oscillating death rate and birth modulus. In both cases it is observed three types of travelling wave solutions: harmonic oscillations, pulse sequence and single pulse.

Age structure and capital dilution effects in neo-classical growth models.

PubMed

Blanchet, D

1988-01-01

Economists often over estimate capital dilution effects when applying neoclassical growth models which use age structured population and depreciation of capital stock. This occurs because capital stock is improperly characterized. A standard model which assumes a constant depreciation of capital intimates that a population growth rate equal to a negative constant savings ratio is preferable to any higher growth rate. Growth rates which are lower than a negative constant savings ratio suggest an ever growing capital/labor ratio and an ever growing standard of living, even if people do not save. This is suggested because the natural reduction of the capital stock through depreciation is slower than the population decrease which is simply unrealistic. This model overlooks the fact that low or negative growth rates result in an ageing of the capital stock, and this ageing subsequently results in an increase of the overall rate of capital depreciation. In that overly simplistic model, depreciation was assumed independent of the age of the captial stock. Incorporating depreciation as a variable into a model allows a more symmetric treatment of capital. Using models with heterogenous capital, this article explores what occurs when more than 1 kind of capital good is involved in production and when these various captial goods have different lengths of life. Applying economic models, it also examines what occurs when the length of life of capital may vary. These variations correct the negative impact that population growth can have on per capital production and consumption.

Modeling and Analysis of a Nonlinear Age-Structured Model for Tumor Cell Populations with Quiescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zijian; Chen, Jing; Pang, Jianhua; Bi, Ping; Ruan, Shigui

2018-05-01

We present a nonlinear first-order hyperbolic partial differential equation model to describe age-structured tumor cell populations with proliferating and quiescent phases at the avascular stage in vitro. The division rate of the proliferating cells is assumed to be nonlinear due to the limitation of the nutrient and space. The model includes a proportion of newborn cells that enter directly the quiescent phase with age zero. This proportion can reflect the effect of treatment by drugs such as erlotinib. The existence and uniqueness of solutions are established. The local and global stabilities of the trivial steady state are investigated. The existence and local stability of the positive steady state are also analyzed. Numerical simulations are performed to verify the results and to examine the impacts of parameters on the nonlinear dynamics of the model.

The role of population inertia in predicting the outcome of stage-structured biological invasions.

PubMed

Guiver, Chris; Dreiwi, Hanan; Filannino, Donna-Maria; Hodgson, Dave; Lloyd, Stephanie; Townley, Stuart

2015-07-01

Deterministic dynamic models for coupled resident and invader populations are considered with the purpose of finding quantities that are effective at predicting when the invasive population will become established asymptotically. A key feature of the models considered is the stage-structure, meaning that the populations are described by vectors of discrete developmental stage- or age-classes. The vector structure permits exotic transient behaviour-phenomena not encountered in scalar models. Analysis using a linear Lyapunov function demonstrates that for the class of population models considered, a large so-called population inertia is indicative of successful invasion. Population inertia is an indicator of transient growth or decline. Furthermore, for the class of models considered, we find that the so-called invasion exponent, an existing index used in models for invasion, is not always a reliable comparative indicator of successful invasion. We highlight these findings through numerical examples and a biological interpretation of why this might be the case is discussed. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The evolution of labile traits in sex- and age-structured populations.

PubMed

Childs, Dylan Z; Sheldon, Ben C; Rees, Mark

2016-03-01

Many quantitative traits are labile (e.g. somatic growth rate, reproductive timing and investment), varying over the life cycle as a result of behavioural adaptation, developmental processes and plastic responses to the environment. At the population level, selection can alter the distribution of such traits across age classes and among generations. Despite a growing body of theoretical research exploring the evolutionary dynamics of labile traits, a data-driven framework for incorporating such traits into demographic models has not yet been developed. Integral projection models (IPMs) are increasingly being used to understand the interplay between changes in labile characters, life histories and population dynamics. One limitation of the IPM approach is that it relies on phenotypic associations between parents and offspring traits to capture inheritance. However, it is well-established that many different processes may drive these associations, and currently, no clear consensus has emerged on how to model micro-evolutionary dynamics in an IPM framework. We show how to embed quantitative genetic models of inheritance of labile traits into age-structured, two-sex models that resemble standard IPMs. Commonly used statistical tools such as GLMs and their mixed model counterparts can then be used for model parameterization. We illustrate the methodology through development of a simple model of egg-laying date evolution, parameterized using data from a population of Great tits (Parus major). We demonstrate how our framework can be used to project the joint dynamics of species' traits and population density. We then develop a simple extension of the age-structured Price equation (ASPE) for two-sex populations, and apply this to examine the age-specific contributions of different processes to change in the mean phenotype and breeding value. The data-driven framework we outline here has the potential to facilitate greater insight into the nature of selection and its consequences in settings where focal traits vary over the lifetime through ontogeny, behavioural adaptation and phenotypic plasticity, as well as providing a potential bridge between theoretical and empirical studies of labile trait variation. © 2016 The Authors Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

2011-02-01

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

Evolution of stochastic demography with life history tradeoffs in density-dependent age-structured populations.

PubMed

Lande, Russell; Engen, Steinar; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-10-31

We analyze the stochastic demography and evolution of a density-dependent age- (or stage-) structured population in a fluctuating environment. A positive linear combination of age classes (e.g., weighted by body mass) is assumed to act as the single variable of population size, [Formula: see text], exerting density dependence on age-specific vital rates through an increasing function of population size. The environment fluctuates in a stationary distribution with no autocorrelation. We show by analysis and simulation of age structure, under assumptions often met by vertebrate populations, that the stochastic dynamics of population size can be accurately approximated by a univariate model governed by three key demographic parameters: the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity in the average environment, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], and the environmental variance in population growth rate, [Formula: see text] Allowing these parameters to be genetically variable and to evolve, but assuming that a fourth parameter, [Formula: see text], measuring the nonlinearity of density dependence, remains constant, the expected evolution maximizes [Formula: see text] This shows that the magnitude of environmental stochasticity governs the classical trade-off between selection for higher [Formula: see text] versus higher [Formula: see text] However, selection also acts to decrease [Formula: see text], so the simple life-history trade-off between [Formula: see text]- and [Formula: see text]-selection may be obscured by additional trade-offs between them and [Formula: see text] Under the classical logistic model of population growth with linear density dependence ([Formula: see text]), life-history evolution in a fluctuating environment tends to maximize the average population size. Published under the PNAS license.

Coarse-graining and hybrid methods for efficient simulation of stochastic multi-scale models of tumour growth.

PubMed

de la Cruz, Roberto; Guerrero, Pilar; Calvo, Juan; Alarcón, Tomás

2017-12-01

The development of hybrid methodologies is of current interest in both multi-scale modelling and stochastic reaction-diffusion systems regarding their applications to biology. We formulate a hybrid method for stochastic multi-scale models of cells populations that extends the remit of existing hybrid methods for reaction-diffusion systems. Such method is developed for a stochastic multi-scale model of tumour growth, i.e. population-dynamical models which account for the effects of intrinsic noise affecting both the number of cells and the intracellular dynamics. In order to formulate this method, we develop a coarse-grained approximation for both the full stochastic model and its mean-field limit. Such approximation involves averaging out the age-structure (which accounts for the multi-scale nature of the model) by assuming that the age distribution of the population settles onto equilibrium very fast. We then couple the coarse-grained mean-field model to the full stochastic multi-scale model. By doing so, within the mean-field region, we are neglecting noise in both cell numbers (population) and their birth rates (structure). This implies that, in addition to the issues that arise in stochastic-reaction diffusion systems, we need to account for the age-structure of the population when attempting to couple both descriptions. We exploit our coarse-graining model so that, within the mean-field region, the age-distribution is in equilibrium and we know its explicit form. This allows us to couple both domains consistently, as upon transference of cells from the mean-field to the stochastic region, we sample the equilibrium age distribution. Furthermore, our method allows us to investigate the effects of intracellular noise, i.e. fluctuations of the birth rate, on collective properties such as travelling wave velocity. We show that the combination of population and birth-rate noise gives rise to large fluctuations of the birth rate in the region at the leading edge of front, which cannot be accounted for by the coarse-grained model. Such fluctuations have non-trivial effects on the wave velocity. Beyond the development of a new hybrid method, we thus conclude that birth-rate fluctuations are central to a quantitatively accurate description of invasive phenomena such as tumour growth.

Coarse-graining and hybrid methods for efficient simulation of stochastic multi-scale models of tumour growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de la Cruz, Roberto; Guerrero, Pilar; Calvo, Juan; Alarcón, Tomás

2017-12-01

The development of hybrid methodologies is of current interest in both multi-scale modelling and stochastic reaction-diffusion systems regarding their applications to biology. We formulate a hybrid method for stochastic multi-scale models of cells populations that extends the remit of existing hybrid methods for reaction-diffusion systems. Such method is developed for a stochastic multi-scale model of tumour growth, i.e. population-dynamical models which account for the effects of intrinsic noise affecting both the number of cells and the intracellular dynamics. In order to formulate this method, we develop a coarse-grained approximation for both the full stochastic model and its mean-field limit. Such approximation involves averaging out the age-structure (which accounts for the multi-scale nature of the model) by assuming that the age distribution of the population settles onto equilibrium very fast. We then couple the coarse-grained mean-field model to the full stochastic multi-scale model. By doing so, within the mean-field region, we are neglecting noise in both cell numbers (population) and their birth rates (structure). This implies that, in addition to the issues that arise in stochastic-reaction diffusion systems, we need to account for the age-structure of the population when attempting to couple both descriptions. We exploit our coarse-graining model so that, within the mean-field region, the age-distribution is in equilibrium and we know its explicit form. This allows us to couple both domains consistently, as upon transference of cells from the mean-field to the stochastic region, we sample the equilibrium age distribution. Furthermore, our method allows us to investigate the effects of intracellular noise, i.e. fluctuations of the birth rate, on collective properties such as travelling wave velocity. We show that the combination of population and birth-rate noise gives rise to large fluctuations of the birth rate in the region at the leading edge of front, which cannot be accounted for by the coarse-grained model. Such fluctuations have non-trivial effects on the wave velocity. Beyond the development of a new hybrid method, we thus conclude that birth-rate fluctuations are central to a quantitatively accurate description of invasive phenomena such as tumour growth.

Demographic Changes in Germany up to 2060 - Consequences for Blood Donation.

PubMed

Ehling, Manfred; Pötzsch, Olga

2010-06-01

This paper outlines the results of a most recent model calculation regarding the structure and development of Germany's population by 2060 with the aim to provide basic demographic data for the future provision of blood components to the population. Firstly, the paper describes the assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and Germany's balance of immigration and emigration which formed the basis for the projection. The following part discusses the results, quantifies future changes in the size and age structure of Germany's population, and illustrates the effects of demographic trends which can be identified from today's point of view. The number of potential blood donors will decline in absolute and relative terms (related to the total population and the age group of 'non-donors') in the future. This holds true for both the age bracket of 18 to 68 years and the alternatively chosen age group of 17 to 70 years. Depending on the variant, the population of blood donation age will decrease by one quarter to one third until 2060.

Integrating Temperature-Dependent Life Table Data into a Matrix Projection Model for Drosophila suzukii Population Estimation

PubMed Central

Wiman, Nik G.; Walton, Vaughn M.; Dalton, Daniel T.; Anfora, Gianfranco; Burrack, Hannah J.; Chiu, Joanna C.; Daane, Kent M.; Grassi, Alberto; Miller, Betsey; Tochen, Samantha; Wang, Xingeng; Ioriatti, Claudio

2014-01-01

Temperature-dependent fecundity and survival data was integrated into a matrix population model to describe relative Drosophila suzukii Matsumura (Diptera: Drosophilidae) population increase and age structure based on environmental conditions. This novel modification of the classic Leslie matrix population model is presented as a way to examine how insect populations interact with the environment, and has application as a predictor of population density. For D. suzukii, we examined model implications for pest pressure on crops. As case studies, we examined model predictions in three small fruit production regions in the United States (US) and one in Italy. These production regions have distinctly different climates. In general, patterns of adult D. suzukii trap activity broadly mimicked seasonal population levels predicted by the model using only temperature data. Age structure of estimated populations suggest that trap and fruit infestation data are of limited value and are insufficient for model validation. Thus, we suggest alternative experiments for validation. The model is advantageous in that it provides stage-specific population estimation, which can potentially guide management strategies and provide unique opportunities to simulate stage-specific management effects such as insecticide applications or the effect of biological control on a specific life-stage. The two factors that drive initiation of the model are suitable temperatures (biofix) and availability of a suitable host medium (fruit). Although there are many factors affecting population dynamics of D. suzukii in the field, temperature-dependent survival and reproduction are believed to be the main drivers for D. suzukii populations. PMID:25192013

A spatial age-structured model for describing sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Jason M.; Wilberg, Michael J.; Adams, Jean V.; Jones, Michael L.

2013-01-01

The control of invasive sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) presents large scale management challenges in the Laurentian Great Lakes. No modeling approach has been developed that describes spatial dynamics of lamprey populations. We developed and validated a spatial and age-structured model and applied it to a sea lamprey population in a large river in the Great Lakes basin. We considered 75 discrete spatial areas, included a stock-recruitment function, spatial recruitment patterns, natural mortality, chemical treatment mortality, and larval metamorphosis. Recruitment was variable, and an upstream shift in recruitment location was observed over time. From 1993–2011 recruitment, larval abundance, and the abundance of metamorphosing individuals decreased by 80, 84, and 86%, respectively. The model successfully identified areas of high larval abundance and showed that areas of low larval density contribute significantly to the population. Estimated treatment mortality was less than expected but had a large population-level impact. The results and general approach of this work have applications for sea lamprey control throughout the Great Lakes and for the restoration and conservation of native lamprey species globally.

Optimal control of Atlantic population Canada geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauser, C.E.; Runge, M.C.; Cooch, E.G.; Johnson, F.A.; Harvey, W.F.

2007-01-01

Management of Canada geese (Branta canadensis) can be a balance between providing sustained harvest opportunity while not allowing populations to become overabundant and cause damage. In this paper, we focus on the Atlantic population of Canada geese and use stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal harvest strategy over a range of plausible models for population dynamics. There is evidence to suggest that the population exhibits significant age structure, and it is possible to reconstruct age structure from surveys. Consequently the harvest strategy is a function of the age composition, as well as the abundance, of the population. The objective is to maximize harvest while maintaining the number of breeding adults in the population between specified upper and lower limits. In addition, the total harvest capacity is limited and there is uncertainty about the strength of density-dependence. We find that under a density-independent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at the highest acceptable abundance. However if harvest capacity is limited, then the optimal long-term breeding population size is lower than the highest acceptable level, to reduce the risk of the population growing to an unacceptably large size. Under the proposed density-dependent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at an intermediate level between the bounds on acceptable population size; limits to harvest capacity have little effect on the optimal long-term population size. It is clear that the strength of density-dependence and constraints on harvest significantly affect the optimal harvest strategy for this population. Model discrimination might be achieved in the long term, while continuing to meet management goals, by adopting an adaptive management strategy.

Assessment of Population Status for a White Sucker (Catostomus commersoni) Population Exposed to Bleached Kraft Pulp Mill Effluent

EPA Science Inventory

A predictive model was developed to translate changes in the fecundity and the age structure of a breeding population of white sucker (Catostomus commersoni) collected in the field to alterations in population growth rate. Application of this density dependent population ...

Analysis of an age structured model for tick populations subject to seasonal effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Kaihui; Lou, Yijun; Wu, Jianhong

2017-08-01

We investigate an age-structured hyperbolic equation model by allowing the birth and death functions to be density dependent and periodic in time with the consideration of seasonal effects. By studying the integral form solution of this general hyperbolic equation obtained through the method of integration along characteristics, we give a detailed proof of the uniqueness and existence of the solution in light of the contraction mapping theorem. With additional biologically natural assumptions, using the tick population growth as a motivating example, we derive an age-structured model with time-dependent periodic maturation delays, which is quite different from the existing population models with time-independent maturation delays. For this periodic differential system with seasonal delays, the basic reproduction number R0 is defined as the spectral radius of the next generation operator. Then, we show the tick population tends to die out when R0 < 1 while remains persistent if R0 > 1. When there is no intra-specific competition among immature individuals due to the sufficient availability of immature tick hosts, the global stability of the positive periodic state for the whole model system of four delay differential equations can be obtained with the observation that a scalar subsystem for the adult stage size can be decoupled. The challenge for the proof of such a global stability result can be overcome by introducing a new phase space, based on which, a periodic solution semiflow can be defined which is eventually strongly monotone and strictly subhomogeneous.

A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

2017-01-01

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance that comparative analyses are colored by model details rather than general principles

Image-driven Population Analysis through Mixture Modeling

PubMed Central

Sabuncu, Mert R.; Balci, Serdar K.; Shenton, Martha E.; Golland, Polina

2009-01-01

We present iCluster, a fast and efficient algorithm that clusters a set of images while co-registering them using a parameterized, nonlinear transformation model. The output of the algorithm is a small number of template images that represent different modes in a population. This is in contrast with traditional, hypothesis-driven computational anatomy approaches that assume a single template to construct an atlas. We derive the algorithm based on a generative model of an image population as a mixture of deformable template images. We validate and explore our method in four experiments. In the first experiment, we use synthetic data to explore the behavior of the algorithm and inform a design choice on parameter settings. In the second experiment, we demonstrate the utility of having multiple atlases for the application of localizing temporal lobe brain structures in a pool of subjects that contains healthy controls and schizophrenia patients. Next, we employ iCluster to partition a data set of 415 whole brain MR volumes of subjects aged 18 through 96 years into three anatomical subgroups. Our analysis suggests that these subgroups mainly correspond to age groups. The templates reveal significant structural differences across these age groups that confirm previous findings in aging research. In the final experiment, we run iCluster on a group of 15 patients with dementia and 15 age-matched healthy controls. The algorithm produces two modes, one of which contains dementia patients only. These results suggest that the algorithm can be used to discover sub-populations that correspond to interesting structural or functional “modes.” PMID:19336293

The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk.

PubMed

Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M; Nelson, William A; Paaijmans, Krijn P; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B; Bjørnstad, Ottar N

2017-03-01

Temperature is a key environmental driver of Anopheles mosquito population dynamics; understanding its central role is important for these malaria vectors. Mosquito population responses to temperature fluctuations, though important across the life history, are poorly understood at a population level. We used stage-structured, temperature-dependent delay-differential equations to conduct a detailed exploration of the impacts of diurnal and annual temperature fluctuations on mosquito population dynamics. The model allows exploration of temperature-driven temporal changes in adult age structure, giving insights into the population's capacity to vector malaria parasites. Because of temperature-dependent shifts in age structure, the abundance of potentially infectious mosquitoes varies temporally, and does not necessarily mirror the dynamics of the total adult population. In addition to conducting the first comprehensive theoretical exploration of fluctuating temperatures on mosquito population dynamics, we analysed observed temperatures at four locations in Africa covering a range of environmental conditions. We found both temperature and precipitation are needed to explain the observed malaria season in these locations, enhancing our understanding of the drivers of malaria seasonality and how temporal disease risk may shift in response to temperature changes. This approach, tracking both mosquito abundance and age structure, may be a powerful tool for understanding current and future malaria risk.

Research on impacts of population-related factors on carbon emissions in Beijing from 1984 to 2012

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Yayun; Zhao, Tao; Wang, Yanan, E-mail: wyn3615@126.com

Carbon emissions related to population factors have aroused great attention around the world. A multitude of literature mainly focused on single demographic impacts on environmental issues at the national level, and comprehensive studies concerning population-related factors at a city level are rare. This paper employed STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) model incorporating PLS (Partial least squares) regression method to examine the influence of population-related factors on carbon emissions in Beijing from 1984 to 2012. Empirically results manifest that urbanization is the paramount driver. Changes in population age structure have significantly positive impacts on carbon emissions,more » and shrinking young population, continuous expansion of working age population and aging population will keep on increasing environmental pressures. Meanwhile, shrinking household size and expanding floating population boost the discharge of carbon emissions. Besides, per capita consumption is an important contributor of carbon emissions, while industry energy intensity is the main inhibitory factor. Based upon these findings and the specific circumstances of Beijing, policies such as promoting clean and renewable energy, improving population quality and advocating low carbon lifestyles should be enhanced to achieve targeted emissions reductions. - Highlights: • We employed the STIRPAT model to identify population-related factors of carbon emissions in Beijing. • Urbanization is the paramount driver of carbon emissions. • Changes in population age structure exert significantly positive impacts on carbon emissions. • Shrinking household size, expanding floating population and improving consumption level increase carbon emissions. • Industry energy intensity decreases carbon emissions.« less

Population-level preferences for primary care physicians' characteristics in Japan: a structural equation modeling.

PubMed

Takahashi, Osamu; Ohde, Sachiko; Jacobs, Joshua L; Tokuda, Yasuharu; Yanai, Haruo; Okubo, Tomoya; Shimbo, Takuro; Fukuhara, Shunichi; Hinohara, Shigeaki; Fukui, Tsuguya

2010-01-01

Primary care has potential to play a role for improving the patient care in Japanese health care system; however, little information is available about how patients perceive the roles of primary care physicians (PCPs) within the Japanese health care system. We aimed to assess population-level preferences for PCPs and investigated the extent to which preferences vary in relation to different population groups in Japan. Data were extracted from a cross-sectional questionnaire survey in October 2003. An 18-item questionnaire was used to measure the preferences for PCPs. Exploratory factor analysis was performed to identify latent factors, while confirmatory factor analysis was used to evaluate the fit of the structure using structural equation modeling (SEM). Nationally representative sample of the adult Japanese general population was chosen by controlling for age, sex, and the size of cities. A total of 2,453 adults>or=18-years-old were analyzed. SEM provided a 4-factor structural model of the population-level preference for PCPs, such as clinical competence (path coefficient (pc)=0.72), gate-keeping (pc=0.64), communication with patients or specialists (pc=0.49) and high education (pc=0.25) and demonstrated the best goodness-of-fit. Those who were middle aged, have a high family income, and a high level of education, placed more importance on gate-keeping characteristics, and the rural residents emphasized communication rather than clinical competence. Our results indicate that the preferences for PCPs are divided into four main factors and underscore the variation among preferences according to different population groups, such as age, socioeconomic and educational status, and places of living. These variations should be considered to improve the primary care system in Japan.

A statistical approach to quasi-extinction forecasting.

PubMed

Holmes, Elizabeth Eli; Sabo, John L; Viscido, Steven Vincent; Fagan, William Fredric

2007-12-01

Forecasting population decline to a certain critical threshold (the quasi-extinction risk) is one of the central objectives of population viability analysis (PVA), and such predictions figure prominently in the decisions of major conservation organizations. In this paper, we argue that accurate forecasting of a population's quasi-extinction risk does not necessarily require knowledge of the underlying biological mechanisms. Because of the stochastic and multiplicative nature of population growth, the ensemble behaviour of population trajectories converges to common statistical forms across a wide variety of stochastic population processes. This paper provides a theoretical basis for this argument. We show that the quasi-extinction surfaces of a variety of complex stochastic population processes (including age-structured, density-dependent and spatially structured populations) can be modelled by a simple stochastic approximation: the stochastic exponential growth process overlaid with Gaussian errors. Using simulated and real data, we show that this model can be estimated with 20-30 years of data and can provide relatively unbiased quasi-extinction risk with confidence intervals considerably smaller than (0,1). This was found to be true even for simulated data derived from some of the noisiest population processes (density-dependent feedback, species interactions and strong age-structure cycling). A key advantage of statistical models is that their parameters and the uncertainty of those parameters can be estimated from time series data using standard statistical methods. In contrast for most species of conservation concern, biologically realistic models must often be specified rather than estimated because of the limited data available for all the various parameters. Biologically realistic models will always have a prominent place in PVA for evaluating specific management options which affect a single segment of a population, a single demographic rate, or different geographic areas. However, for forecasting quasi-extinction risk, statistical models that are based on the convergent statistical properties of population processes offer many advantages over biologically realistic models.

Genetic scores of smoking behaviour in a Chinese population.

PubMed

Yang, Shanshan; He, Yao; Wang, Jianhua; Wang, Yiyan; Wu, Lei; Zeng, Jing; Liu, Miao; Zhang, Di; Jiang, Bin; Li, Xiaoying

2016-03-07

This study sought to structure a genetic score for smoking behaviour in a Chinese population. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) were evaluated in a community-representative sample (N = 3,553) of Beijing, China. The candidate SNPs were tested in four genetic models (dominance model, recessive model, heterogeneous codominant model and additive model), and 7 SNPs were selected to structure a genetic score. A total of 3,553 participants (1,477 males and 2,076 females) completed the survey. Using the unweighted score, we found that participants with a high genetic score had a 34% higher risk of trying smoking and a 43% higher risk of SI at ≤ 18 years of age after adjusting for age, gender, education, occupation, ethnicity, body mass index (BMI) and sports activity time. The unweighted genetic scores were chosen to best extrapolate and understand these results. Importantly, genetic score was significantly associated with smoking behaviour (smoking status and SI at ≤ 18 years of age). These results have the potential to guide relevant health education for individuals with high genetic scores and promote the process of smoking control to improve the health of the population.

Assessment of Population Status for a White Sucker (Catostomus commersoni) Population Exposed to Bleached Kraft Pulp Mill Effluent

EPA Science Inventory

Credible ecological risk assessments often need to include analysis of population-level impacts. In the present study, a predictive model was developed to translate changes in the fecundity and the age structure of a breeding population of white sucker (Catostomus commersoni) co...

Disease spread in age structured populations with maternal age effects.

PubMed

Clark, Jessica; Garbutt, Jennie S; McNally, Luke; Little, Tom J

2017-04-01

Fundamental ecological processes, such as extrinsic mortality, determine population age structure. This influences disease spread when individuals of different ages differ in susceptibility or when maternal age determines offspring susceptibility. We show that Daphnia magna offspring born to young mothers are more susceptible than those born to older mothers, and consider this alongside previous observations that susceptibility declines with age in this system. We used a susceptible-infected compartmental model to investigate how age-specific susceptibility and maternal age effects on offspring susceptibility interact with demographic factors affecting disease spread. Our results show a scenario where an increase in extrinsic mortality drives an increase in transmission potential. Thus, we identify a realistic context in which age effects and maternal effects produce conditions favouring disease transmission. © 2017 The Authors Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Demographic Changes in Germany up to 2060 – Consequences for Blood Donation

PubMed Central

Ehling, Manfred; Pötzsch, Olga

2010-01-01

Summary This paper outlines the results of a most recent model calculation regarding the structure and development of Germany's population by 2060 with the aim to provide basic demographic data for the future provision of blood components to the population. Firstly, the paper describes the assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and Germany's balance of immigration and emigration which formed the basis for the projection. The following part discusses the results, quantifies future changes in the size and age structure of Germany's population, and illustrates the effects of demographic trends which can be identified from today's point of view. The number of potential blood donors will decline in absolute and relative terms (related to the total population and the age group of ‘non-donors’) in the future. This holds true for both the age bracket of 18 to 68 years and the alternatively chosen age group of 17 to 70 years. Depending on the variant, the population of blood donation age will decrease by one quarter to one third until 2060. PMID:20737016

Fine resolution mapping of population age-structures for health and development applications.

PubMed

Alegana, V A; Atkinson, P M; Pezzulo, C; Sorichetta, A; Weiss, D; Bird, T; Erbach-Schoenberg, E; Tatem, A J

2015-04-06

The age-group composition of populations varies considerably across the world, and obtaining accurate, spatially detailed estimates of numbers of children under 5 years is important in designing vaccination strategies, educational planning or maternal healthcare delivery. Traditionally, such estimates are derived from population censuses, but these can often be unreliable, outdated and of coarse resolution for resource-poor settings. Focusing on Nigeria, we use nationally representative household surveys and their cluster locations to predict the proportion of the under-five population in 1 × 1 km using a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model. Results showed that land cover, travel time to major settlements, night-time lights and vegetation index were good predictors and that accounting for fine-scale variation, rather than assuming a uniform proportion of under 5 year olds can result in significant differences in health metrics. The largest gaps in estimated bednet and vaccination coverage were in Kano, Katsina and Jigawa. Geolocated household surveys are a valuable resource for providing detailed, contemporary and regularly updated population age-structure data in the absence of recent census data. By combining these with covariate layers, age-structure maps of unprecedented detail can be produced to guide the targeting of interventions in resource-poor settings.

Constructing fertility tables for Soviet populations.

PubMed

Mazur, D P

1976-02-01

Because the 1970 Soviet Union census does not provide information on the age structure of men and women separately by sex and according to their ethnic affiliation, the 1959 USSR census data serve as the basis to infer knowledge about ethnic fertility. The model takes into account (1) the total number of births in 1960, estimated from the child-woman ratio in 1959, (2) the age structure of women in 1959, and (3) the assumed pattern of age-specific birth rates structured in terms of the modal age at childbearing and the length of the fertility age span. The results show that Ukrainians among the Slav populations ranked as the lowest with 2.07 children born per woman. Their total fertility contrasts with that of Kazakhs native to Central Asia, who reportedly according to Soviet sources had 7.46 children per woman in 1958-1959, and whose estimated rate is around 8.59 children. Extreme variations appear in the estimates of fertility among nationalities of the Caucasus region, Volga Basin, and to a lesser degree in Siberia. Official Soviet calculations of crude birth rates and age-specific rates for 15 Union Republics in 1967-1968 are transcribed and compared with the estimates for nationalities in 1959-1960. The same theoretical model used to generate the Soviet rates may be adapted under different assumptions to non-Soviet populations in other situations where the data are scanty or incomplete.

Anomalous Growth of Aging Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grebenkov, Denis S.

2016-04-01

We consider a discrete-time population dynamics with age-dependent structure. At every time step, one of the alive individuals from the population is chosen randomly and removed with probability q_k depending on its age, whereas a new individual of age 1 is born with probability r. The model can also describe a single queue in which the service order is random while the service efficiency depends on a customer's "age" in the queue. We propose a mean field approximation to investigate the long-time asymptotic behavior of the mean population size. The age dependence is shown to lead to anomalous power-law growth of the population at the critical regime. The scaling exponent is determined by the asymptotic behavior of the probabilities q_k at large k. The mean field approximation is validated by Monte Carlo simulations.

Host population structure and treatment frequency maintain balancing selection on drug resistance

PubMed Central

Baskerville, Edward B.; Colijn, Caroline; Hanage, William; Fraser, Christophe; Lipsitch, Marc

2017-01-01

It is a truism that antimicrobial drugs select for resistance, but explaining pathogen- and population-specific variation in patterns of resistance remains an open problem. Like other common commensals, Streptococcus pneumoniae has demonstrated persistent coexistence of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains. Theoretically, this outcome is unlikely. We modelled the dynamics of competing strains of S. pneumoniae to investigate the impact of transmission dynamics and treatment-induced selective pressures on the probability of stable coexistence. We find that the outcome of competition is extremely sensitive to structure in the host population, although coexistence can arise from age-assortative transmission models with age-varying rates of antibiotic use. Moreover, we find that the selective pressure from antibiotics arises not so much from the rate of antibiotic use per se but from the frequency of treatment: frequent antibiotic therapy disproportionately impacts the fitness of sensitive strains. This same phenomenon explains why serotypes with longer durations of carriage tend to be more resistant. These dynamics may apply to other potentially pathogenic, microbial commensals and highlight how population structure, which is often omitted from models, can have a large impact. PMID:28835542

Theoretical life history responses of juvenile Oncorhynchus mykiss to changes in food availability using a dynamic state-dependent approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romine, Jason G.; Benjamin, Joseph R.; Perry, Russell W.; Casal, Lynne; Connolly, Patrick J.; Sauter, Sally S.

2013-01-01

Marine subsidies can play an important role in the growth, survival, and migratory behavior of rearing juvenile salmonids. Availability of high-energy, marine-derived food sources during critical decision windows may influence the timing of emigration or the decision to forego emigration completely and remain in the freshwater environment. Increasing growth and growth rate during these decision windows may result in an altered juvenile population structure, which will ultimately affect the adult population age-structure. We used a state dependent model to understand how the juvenile Oncorhynchus mykiss population structure may respond to increased availability of salmon eggs in their diet during critical decision windows. Our models predicted an increase in smolt production until coho salmon eggs comprised more than 50 percent of juvenile O. mykiss diet at the peak of the spawning run. At higher-than intermediate levels of egg consumption, smolt production decreased owing to increasing numbers of fish adopting a resident life-history strategy. Additionally, greater growth rates decreased the number of age-3 smolts and increased the number of age-2 smolts. Increased growth rates with higher egg consumption also decreased the age at which fish adopted the resident pathway. Our models suggest that the introduction of a high-energy food source during critical periods of the year could be sufficient to increase smolt production.

Estimation of the Population Susceptibility Against Measles in Slovakia.

PubMed

Zibolenová, Jana; Chladná, Zuzana; Švihrová, Viera; Baška, Tibor; Waczulíková, Iveta; Hudečková, Henrieta

2017-03-01

In Slovakia, thanks to a highly effective vaccination programme, no domestic cases of measles have been reported since 1999. However, there are several outbreaks of measles currently hitting some countries in Europe. Difficulties in reaching the goal of measles elimination make it necessary to monitor the status of the population susceptibility to prevent similar outbreaks in the future. We hypothesize that immunity wanes overtime, which can substantially impact the population susceptibility. This work introduces a model that estimates a proportion of individuals susceptible to measles in the Slovak population in 2015. Our analysis is based on an age-cohort model that incorporates waning immunity, vaccination schedule and changes in demographic structure. The inputs of the model are data on the vaccination coverage, last seroprevalence survey in 2002 and age structure of the population. In a short-term horizon, waning immunity does not affect the estimated proportion of the susceptible population. However, in a long-term horizon, the antibody titers can fall below the level of protection, which would result in a substantial transfer of initially immune individuals to the compartment of the susceptible ones. Incorporating of waning immunity in the cohort model has indicated that the most susceptible cohorts are not-vaccinated youngest children and cohorts born between 1969 and 1986. Applying the model to the current situation shows that people aged 30-45 years and unvaccinated infants represent the most susceptible groups. Model partially replaces missing seroprevalence survey, but, because the parameters of model and phenomenon of waning immunity are not exactly known, we suggest reintroducing the regular national serosurveys in order to empirically determine the level of susceptibility for measles in Slovakia. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

Evolution of a plastic quantitative trait in an age-structured population in a fluctuating environment.

PubMed

Engen, Steinar; Lande, Russell; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-10-01

We analyze weak fluctuating selection on a quantitative character in an age-structured population not subject to density regulation. We assume that early in the first year of life before selection, during a critical state of development, environments exert a plastic effect on the phenotype, which remains constant throughout the life of an individual. Age-specific selection on the character affects survival and fecundity, which have intermediate optima subject to temporal environmental fluctuations with directional selection in some age classes as special cases. Weighting individuals by their reproductive value, as suggested by Fisher, we show that the expected response per year in the weighted mean character has the same form as for models with no age structure. Environmental stochasticity generates stochastic fluctuations in the weighted mean character following a first-order autoregressive model with a temporally autocorrelated noise term and stationary variance depending on the amount of phenotypic plasticity. The parameters of the process are simple weighted averages of parameters used to describe age-specific survival and fecundity. The "age-specific selective weights" are related to the stable distribution of reproductive values among age classes. This allows partitioning of the change in the weighted mean character into age-specific components. © 2011 The Author(s). Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Accounting for Age Uncertainty in Growth Modeling, the Case Study of Yellowfin Tuna (Thunnus albacares) of the Indian Ocean

PubMed Central

Dortel, Emmanuelle; Massiot-Granier, Félix; Rivot, Etienne; Million, Julien; Hallier, Jean-Pierre; Morize, Eric; Munaron, Jean-Marie; Bousquet, Nicolas; Chassot, Emmanuel

2013-01-01

Age estimates, typically determined by counting periodic growth increments in calcified structures of vertebrates, are the basis of population dynamics models used for managing exploited or threatened species. In fisheries research, the use of otolith growth rings as an indicator of fish age has increased considerably in recent decades. However, otolith readings include various sources of uncertainty. Current ageing methods, which converts an average count of rings into age, only provide periodic age estimates in which the range of uncertainty is fully ignored. In this study, we describe a hierarchical model for estimating individual ages from repeated otolith readings. The model was developed within a Bayesian framework to explicitly represent the sources of uncertainty associated with age estimation, to allow for individual variations and to include knowledge on parameters from expertise. The performance of the proposed model was examined through simulations, and then it was coupled to a two-stanza somatic growth model to evaluate the impact of the age estimation method on the age composition of commercial fisheries catches. We illustrate our approach using the saggital otoliths of yellowfin tuna of the Indian Ocean collected through large-scale mark-recapture experiments. The simulation performance suggested that the ageing error model was able to estimate the ageing biases and provide accurate age estimates, regardless of the age of the fish. Coupled with the growth model, this approach appeared suitable for modeling the growth of Indian Ocean yellowfin and is consistent with findings of previous studies. The simulations showed that the choice of the ageing method can strongly affect growth estimates with subsequent implications for age-structured data used as inputs for population models. Finally, our modeling approach revealed particularly useful to reflect uncertainty around age estimates into the process of growth estimation and it can be applied to any study relying on age estimation. PMID:23637773

Paths for Future Population Aging.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grigsby, Jill S.

Population aging refers to an entire age structure becoming older. The age structure of a population is the result of three basic processes: fertility, mortality, and migration. Age structures reflect both past effects and current patterns of these processes. At the town, city, or regional level, migration becomes an important factor in raising…

On some genetic consequences of social structure, mating systems, dispersal, and sampling

PubMed Central

Parreira, Bárbara R.; Chikhi, Lounès

2015-01-01

Many species are spatially and socially organized, with complex social organizations and dispersal patterns that are increasingly documented. Social species typically consist of small age-structured units, where a limited number of individuals monopolize reproduction and exhibit complex mating strategies. Here, we model social groups as age-structured units and investigate the genetic consequences of social structure under distinct mating strategies commonly found in mammals. Our results show that sociality maximizes genotypic diversity, which contradicts the belief that social groups are necessarily subject to strong genetic drift and at high risk of inbreeding depression. Social structure generates an excess of genotypic diversity. This is commonly observed in ecological studies but rarely reported in population genetic studies that ignore social structure. This heterozygosity excess, when detected, is often interpreted as a consequence of inbreeding avoidance mechanisms, but we show that it can occur even in the absence of such mechanisms. Many seemly contradictory results from ecology and population genetics can be reconciled by genetic models that include the complexities of social species. We find that such discrepancies can be explained by the intrinsic properties of social groups and by the sampling strategies of real populations. In particular, the number of social groups and the nature of the individuals that compose samples (e.g., nonreproductive and reproductive individuals) are key factors in generating outbreeding signatures. Sociality is an important component of population structure that needs to be revisited by ecologists and population geneticists alike. PMID:26080393

Age structure is critical to the population dynamics and survival of honeybee colonies.

PubMed

Betti, M I; Wahl, L M; Zamir, M

2016-11-01

Age structure is an important feature of the division of labour within honeybee colonies, but its effects on colony dynamics have rarely been explored. We present a model of a honeybee colony that incorporates this key feature, and use this model to explore the effects of both winter and disease on the fate of the colony. The model offers a novel explanation for the frequently observed phenomenon of 'spring dwindle', which emerges as a natural consequence of the age-structured dynamics. Furthermore, the results indicate that a model taking age structure into account markedly affects the predicted timing and severity of disease within a bee colony. The timing of the onset of disease with respect to the changing seasons may also have a substantial impact on the fate of a honeybee colony. Finally, simulations predict that an infection may persist in a honeybee colony over several years, with effects that compound over time. Thus, the ultimate collapse of the colony may be the result of events several years past.

POPULATION-LEVEL RESPONSE OF THE MYSID, AMERICAMYSIS BAHIA, TO VARYING THIOBENCARB CONCENTRATIONS BASED ON AGE-STRUCTURED POPULATION MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

To fully understand the potential long-term ecological impacts a pollutant has on a species, population-level effects must be estimated. Since long-term field experiments are typically not feasible, vital rates such as survival, growth, and reproduction of individual organisms ar...

Boosting structured additive quantile regression for longitudinal childhood obesity data.

PubMed

Fenske, Nora; Fahrmeir, Ludwig; Hothorn, Torsten; Rzehak, Peter; Höhle, Michael

2013-07-25

Childhood obesity and the investigation of its risk factors has become an important public health issue. Our work is based on and motivated by a German longitudinal study including 2,226 children with up to ten measurements on their body mass index (BMI) and risk factors from birth to the age of 10 years. We introduce boosting of structured additive quantile regression as a novel distribution-free approach for longitudinal quantile regression. The quantile-specific predictors of our model include conventional linear population effects, smooth nonlinear functional effects, varying-coefficient terms, and individual-specific effects, such as intercepts and slopes. Estimation is based on boosting, a computer intensive inference method for highly complex models. We propose a component-wise functional gradient descent boosting algorithm that allows for penalized estimation of the large variety of different effects, particularly leading to individual-specific effects shrunken toward zero. This concept allows us to flexibly estimate the nonlinear age curves of upper quantiles of the BMI distribution, both on population and on individual-specific level, adjusted for further risk factors and to detect age-varying effects of categorical risk factors. Our model approach can be regarded as the quantile regression analog of Gaussian additive mixed models (or structured additive mean regression models), and we compare both model classes with respect to our obesity data.

Effects of structural complexity enhancement on eastern red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) populations in northern hardwood forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenny, H.C.; Keeton, W.S.; Donovan, T.M.

2006-01-01

Managing for stand structural complexity in northern hardwood forests has been proposed as a method for promoting microhabitat characteristics important to eastern red-backed salamanders (Plethodon cinereus). We evaluated the effects of alternate, structure-based silvicultural systems on red-backed salamander populations at two research sites in northwestern Vermont. Treatments included two uneven-aged approaches (single-tree selection and group-selection) and one unconventional approach, termed "structural complexity enhancement" (SCE), that promotes development of late-successional structure, including elevated levels of coarse woody debris (CWD). Treatments were applied to 2 ha units and were replicated two to four times depending on treatment. We surveyed red-backed salamanders with a natural cover search method of transects nested within vegetation plots 1 year after logging. Abundance estimates corrected for detection probability were calculated from survey data with a binomial mixture model. Abundance estimates differed between study areas and were influenced by forest structural characteristics. Model selection was conducted using Akaike Information Criteria, corrected for over-dispersed data and small sample size (QAICc). We found no difference in abundance as a response to treatment as a whole, suggesting that all of the uneven-aged silvicultural systems evaluated can maintain salamander populations after harvest. However, abundance was tied to specific structural habitat attributes associated with study plots within treatments. The most parsimonious model of habitat covariates included site, relative density of overstory trees, and density of more-decayed and less-decayed downed CWD. Abundance responded positively to the density of downed, well-decayed CWD and negatively to the density of poorly decayed CWD and to overstory relative density. CWD volume was not a strong predictor of salamander abundance. We conclude that structural complexity enhancement and the two uneven-aged approaches maintained important microhabitat characteristics for red-backed salamander populations in the short term. Over the long-term, given decay processes as a determinant of biological availability, forestry practices such as SCE that enhance CWD availability and recruitment may result in associated population responses. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Economic consequences of population size, structure and growth.

PubMed

Lee, R

1983-01-01

There seems to be 4 major approaches to conceptualizing and modeling demographic influences on economic and social welfare. These approaches are combined in various ways to construct richer and more comprehensive models. The basic approaches are: demographic influences on household or family behavior; population growth and reproducible capital; population size and fixed factors; and population and advantages of scale. These 4 models emphasize the supply side effects of population. A few of the ways in which these theories have been combined are sketched. Neoclassical growth models often have been combined with age distributed populations of individuals (or households), assumed to pursue optimal life cycle consumption and saving. In some well known development models, neoclassical growth models for the modern sector are linked by labor markets and migration to fixed factor (land) models of the traditional (agricultural) sector. A whole series of macro simulation models for developed and developing countries was based on single sector neoclassical growth models with age distributed populations. Yet, typically the household level foundations of assumed age distribution effects were not worked out. Simon's (1977) simulation models are in a class by themselves, for they are the only models that attempt to incorporate all the kinds of effects discussed. The economic demography of the individual and family cycle, as it is affected by regimes of fertility, mortality, and nuptiality, taken as given, are considered. The examination touches on many of the purported consequences of aggregate population growth and age composition, since so many of these are based implicitly or explicitly on assertions about micro level behavior. Demographic influences on saving and consumption, on general labor supply and female labor supply, and on problems of youth and old age dependency frequently fall in this category. Finally, attention is focused specifically on macro economic issues in the consequences of population in both developed and developing countries. In general cross national studies have failed to provide rough and stylized depiction of the consequences of rapid population growth, unless the absence of significant results is itself the result.

Global stability of an age-structure epidemic model with imperfect vaccination and relapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Bin; Huo, Hai-Feng; Xiang, Hong

2017-11-01

A new age-structured epidemic model with imperfect vaccination and relapse is proposed. The total population of our model is partitioned into five subclasses: susceptible class S, vaccinated class V, exposed class E, infectious class I and removed class R. Age-structures are equipped with in exposed and recovered classes. Furthermore, imperfect vaccination is also introduced in our model. The basic reproduction number R0 is defined and proved as a threshold parameter of the model. Asymptotic smoothness of solutions and uniform persistence of the system are showed via reformulating the system as a system of Volterra integral equation. Furthermore, by constructing proper Volterra-type Lyapunov functional we get when R0 < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When R0 > 1, the endemic equilibrium is globally stable. Our results show that to increase the efficiency of vaccination and reduce influence of relapse are vital essential for controlling epidemic.

Age-Sex Structure of the Population and Demographic Processes in Environmentally Challenged Mining Region (on the example of Kemerovo region)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leshukov, Timofey; Brel, Olga; Zaytseva, Anna; Kaizer, Philipp; Makarov, Kirill

2017-11-01

The main goal of the article is to show the influence of the age-sex structure of the population on the basic demographic processes in the Kemerovo region. During research the authors have established correlation links between the sex-age structure of the population and the main demographic indicators (birth and mortality rate, morbidity rate, migration and others) based on the analysis of official statistical data. The direct influence of internal and external factors on the age-sex structure of the population is revealed. Conclusions about the impact of demographic processes on the sex-age structure of the population of the Kemerovo region are drawn.

Computer simulation of the coffee leaf miner using sexual Penna aging model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Oliveira, A. C. S.; Martins, S. G. F.; Zacarias, M. S.

2008-01-01

Forecast models based on climatic conditions are of great interest in Integrated Pest Management (IPM) programs. The success of these models depends, among other factors, on the knowledge of the temperature effect on the pests’ population dynamics. In this direction, a computer simulation was made for the population dynamics of the coffee leaf miner, L. coffeella, at different temperatures, considering experimental data relative to the pest. The age structure was inserted into the dynamics through sexual Penna Model. The results obtained, such as life expectancy, growth rate and annual generations’ number, in agreement to those in laboratory and field conditions, show that the simulation can be used as a forecast model for controlling L. coffeella.

Fine resolution mapping of population age-structures for health and development applications

PubMed Central

Alegana, V. A.; Atkinson, P. M.; Pezzulo, C.; Sorichetta, A.; Weiss, D.; Bird, T.; Erbach-Schoenberg, E.; Tatem, A. J.

2015-01-01

The age-group composition of populations varies considerably across the world, and obtaining accurate, spatially detailed estimates of numbers of children under 5 years is important in designing vaccination strategies, educational planning or maternal healthcare delivery. Traditionally, such estimates are derived from population censuses, but these can often be unreliable, outdated and of coarse resolution for resource-poor settings. Focusing on Nigeria, we use nationally representative household surveys and their cluster locations to predict the proportion of the under-five population in 1 × 1 km using a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model. Results showed that land cover, travel time to major settlements, night-time lights and vegetation index were good predictors and that accounting for fine-scale variation, rather than assuming a uniform proportion of under 5 year olds can result in significant differences in health metrics. The largest gaps in estimated bednet and vaccination coverage were in Kano, Katsina and Jigawa. Geolocated household surveys are a valuable resource for providing detailed, contemporary and regularly updated population age-structure data in the absence of recent census data. By combining these with covariate layers, age-structure maps of unprecedented detail can be produced to guide the targeting of interventions in resource-poor settings. PMID:25788540

Spatio-temporal variation in age structure and abundance of the endangered snail kite: Pooling across regions masks a declining and aging population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichert, Brian E.; Kendall, William L.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2016-01-01

While variation in age structure over time and space has long been considered important for population dynamics and conservation, reliable estimates of such spatio-temporal variation in age structure have been elusive for wild vertebrate populations. This limitation has arisen because of problems of imperfect detection, the potential for temporary emigration impacting assessments of age structure, and limited information on age. However, identifying patterns in age structure is important for making reliable predictions of both short- and long-term dynamics of populations of conservation concern. Using a multistate superpopulation estimator, we estimated region-specific abundance and age structure (the proportion of individuals within each age class) of a highly endangered population of snail kites for two separate regions in Florida over 17 years (1997–2013). We find that in the southern region of the snail kite—a region known to be critical for the long-term persistence of the species—the population has declined significantly since 1997, and during this time, it has increasingly become dominated by older snail kites (> 12 years old). In contrast, in the northern region—a region historically thought to serve primarily as drought refugia—the population has increased significantly since 2007 and age structure is more evenly distributed among age classes. Given that snail kites show senescence at approximately 13 years of age, where individuals suffer higher mortality rates and lower breeding rates, these results reveal an alarming trend for the southern region. Our work illustrates the importance of accounting for spatial structure when assessing changes in abundance and age distribution and the need for monitoring of age structure in imperiled species.

Global asymptotic stability of plant-seed bank models.

PubMed

Eager, Eric Alan; Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

2014-07-01

Many plant populations have persistent seed banks, which consist of viable seeds that remain dormant in the soil for many years. Seed banks are important for plant population dynamics because they buffer against environmental perturbations and reduce the probability of extinction. Viability of the seeds in the seed bank can depend on the seed's age, hence it is important to keep track of the age distribution of seeds in the seed bank. In this paper we construct a general density-dependent plant-seed bank model where the seed bank is age-structured. We consider density dependence in both seedling establishment and seed production, since previous work has highlighted that overcrowding can suppress both of these processes. Under certain assumptions on the density dependence, we prove that there is a globally stable equilibrium population vector which is independent of the initial state. We derive an analytical formula for the equilibrium population using methods from feedback control theory. We apply these results to a model for the plant species Cirsium palustre and its seed bank.

A reexamination of age-related variation in body weight and morphometry of Maryland nutria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherfy, M.H.; Mollett, T.A.; McGowan, K.R.; Daugherty, S.L.

2006-01-01

Age-related variation in morphometry has been documented for many species. Knowledge of growth patterns can be useful for modeling energetics, detecting physiological influences on populations, and predicting age. These benefits have shown value in understanding population dynamics of invasive species, particularly in developing efficient control and eradication programs. However, development and evaluation of descriptive and predictive models is a critical initial step in this process. Accordingly, we used data from necropsies of 1,544 nutria (Myocastor coypus) collected in Maryland, USA, to evaluate the accuracy of previously published models for prediction of nutria age from body weight. Published models underestimated body weights of our animals, especially for ages <3. We used cross-validation procedures to develop and evaluate models for describing nutria growth patterns and for predicting nutria age. We derived models from a randomly selected model-building data set (n = 192-193 M, 217-222 F) and evaluated them with the remaining animals (n = 487-488 M, 642-647 F). We used nonlinear regression to develop Gompertz growth-curve models relating morphometric variables to age. Predicted values of morphometric variables fell within the 95% confidence limits of their true values for most age classes. We also developed predictive models for estimating nutria age from morphometry, using linear regression of log-transformed age on morphometric variables. The evaluation data set corresponded with 95% prediction intervals from the new models. Predictive models for body weight and length provided greater accuracy and less bias than models for foot length and axillary girth. Our growth models accurately described age-related variation in nutria morphometry, and our predictive models provided accurate estimates of ages from morphometry that will be useful for live-captured individuals. Our models offer better accuracy and precision than previously published models, providing a capacity for modeling energetics and growth patterns of Maryland nutria as well as an empirical basis for determining population age structure from live-captured animals.

Burden of cancer mortality and differences attributable to demographic aging and risk factors in Argentina, 1986-2011.

PubMed

Pou, Sonia Alejandra; Tumas, Natalia; Coquet, Julia Becaria; Niclis, Camila; Román, María Dolores; Díaz, María Del Pilar

2017-03-09

The world faces an aging population that implies a large number of people affected with chronic diseases. Argentina has reached an advanced stage of demographic transition and presents a comparatively high rate of cancer mortality within Latin America. The objectives of this study were to examine cancer mortality trends in the province of Córdoba, Argentina, between 1986 and 2011, and to analyze the differences attributable to risk variations and demographic changes. Longitudinal series of age-standardized mortality rates for overall, breast and prostate cancers were modeled by Joinpoint regression to estimate the annual percent change. The Bashir & Estève method was used to split crude mortality rate variation into three components: mortality risk, population age structure and population size. A decreasing cancer age-standardized mortality rates trend was observed (1986-2011 annual percent change: -1.4, 95%CI: -1.6, -1.2 in men; -0.8, 95%CI: -1.0, -0.6 in women), with a significant shift in 1996. There were positive crude mortality rate net changes for overall female cancer, breast and prostate cancers, which were primarily attributable to demographic changes. Inversely, overall male cancer crude mortality rate showed a 9.15% decrease, mostly due to mortality risk. Despite favorable age-standardized mortality rates trends, the influence of population aging reinforces the challenge to control cancer in populations with an increasingly aged demographic structure.

Evidence of sustained populations of a small reef fish on artificial structures. Does depth affect production on artificial reefs?

PubMed

Fowler, A M; Booth, D J

2012-03-01

The length frequencies and age structures of resident Pseudanthias rubrizonatus (n = 407), a small protogynous serranid, were measured at four isolated artificial structures on the continental shelf of north-western Australia between June and August 2008, to determine whether these structures supported full (complete size and age-structured) populations of this species. The artificial structures were located in depths between 82 and 135 m, and growth rates of juveniles and adults, and body condition of adults, were compared among structures to determine the effect of depth on potential production. All life-history stages, including recently settled juveniles, females and terminal males, of P. rubrizonatus were caught, ranging in standard length (L(s)) from 16·9 to 96·5 mm. Presumed ages estimated from whole and sectioned otoliths ranged between 22 days and 5 years, and parameter ±s.e. estimates of the von Bertalanffy growth model were L(∞) = 152 ± 34 mm, k = 0·15(±0·05) and t(0) = -1·15(±0·15). Estimated annual growth rates were similar between shallow and deep artificial structures; however, otolith lengths and recent growth of juveniles differed among individual structures, irrespective of depth. The artificial structures therefore sustained full populations of P. rubrizonatus, from recently settled juveniles through to adults; however, confirmation of the maximum age attainable for the species is required from natural populations. Depth placement of artificial reefs may not affect the production of fish species with naturally wide depth ranges. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2012 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Conserving genomic variability in large mammals: Effect of population fluctuations and variance in male reproductive success on variability in Yellowstone bison

Treesearch

Andres Perez-Figueroa; Rick L. Wallen; Tiago Antao; Jason A. Coombs; Michael K. Schwartz; P. J. White; Gordon Luikart

2012-01-01

Loss of genetic variation through genetic drift can reduce population viability. However, relatively little is known about loss of variation caused by the combination of fluctuating population size and variance in reproductive success in age structured populations. We built an individual-based computer simulation model to examine how actual culling and hunting...

Age structure and mortality of walleyes in Kansas reservoirs: Use of mortality caps to establish realistic management objectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Quist, M.C.; Stephen, J.L.; Guy, C.S.; Schultz, R.D.

2004-01-01

Age structure, total annual mortality, and mortality caps (maximum mortality thresholds established by managers) were investigated for walleye Sander vitreus (formerly Stizostedion vitreum) populations sampled from eight Kansas reservoirs during 1991-1999. We assessed age structure by examining the relative frequency of different ages in the population; total annual mortality of age-2 and older walleyes was estimated by use of a weighted catch curve. To evaluate the utility of mortality caps, we modeled threshold values of mortality by varying growth rates and management objectives. Estimated mortality thresholds were then compared with observed growth and mortality rates. The maximum age of walleyes varied from 5 to 11 years across reservoirs. Age structure was dominated (???72%) by walleyes age 3 and younger in all reservoirs, corresponding to ages that were not yet vulnerable to harvest. Total annual mortality rates varied from 40.7% to 59.5% across reservoirs and averaged 51.1% overall (SE = 2.3). Analysis of mortality caps indicated that a management objective of 500 mm for the mean length of walleyes harvested by anglers was realistic for all reservoirs with a 457-mm minimum length limit but not for those with a 381-mm minimum length limit. For a 500-mm mean length objective to be realized for reservoirs with a 381-mm length limit, managers must either reduce mortality rates (e.g., through restrictive harvest regulations) or increase growth of walleyes. When the assumed objective was to maintain the mean length of harvested walleyes at current levels, the observed annual mortality rates were below the mortality cap for all reservoirs except one. Mortality caps also provided insight on management objectives expressed in terms of proportional stock density (PSD). Results indicated that a PSD objective of 20-40 was realistic for most reservoirs. This study provides important walleye mortality information that can be used for monitoring or for inclusion into population models; these results can also be combined with those of other studies to investigate large-scale differences in walleye mortality. Our analysis illustrates the utility of mortality caps for monitoring walleye populations and for establishing realistic management goals.

An assessment of sauger population characteristics on two Tennessee River reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graham, Christy L.; Bettoli, Phillip William; Churchill, Timothy N.

2015-01-01

In 1992, a 356-mm minimum length limit (MLL) was enacted on Kentucky Lake and a 381-mm MLL was enacted on Watts Bar Lake, two mainstem reservoirs on the Tennessee River, in an attempt to reduce exploitation and improve the size structure of the sauger (Sander canadensis) populations. The objectives of this study were to compare sauger population characteristics immediately following (1993–1994) and 15 years after (2008–2009) the regulations took effect, examine spatial and temporal patterns in growth, examine recruitment patterns in each reservoir using a recruitment variability index (RVI), and assess the current likelihood of overfishing. Saugers were collected with experimental gill nets in each reservoir and aged using otoliths. A Beverton-Holt yield-per-recruit model was used to simulate angler yields and estimate the likelihood of growth overfishing. Recruitment overfishing was assessed by examining spawning potential ratios under various MLL and exploitation rate scenarios. The sauger population in Kentucky Lake experienced modest improvements in size and age structure over the 15 years following enactment of more restrictive harvest regulations, whereas the population in Watts Bar Lake changed very little, if at all, in terms of size and age structure. Mean lengths of age-3 sauger were significantly greater in Watts Bar Lake than in Kentucky Lake in both time periods. The RVI values indicated that between 1993 and 2009 the sauger in Kentucky Lake displayed more stable recruitment than the Watts Bar Lake population. Neither population exhibited signs of growth overfishing in 2008–09 under the current length limits; however, the Watts Bar Lake population would be susceptible to recruitment overfishing at high (>40%) exploitation rates if natural mortality was as low as 20%. These analyses have demonstrated that the Watts Bar Lake and Kentucky Lake populations, in terms of size and age structure, have remained relatively stable over 15+ years and the MLLs appear to be conserving the stocks.

Age and gender specific biokinetic model for strontium in humans

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shagina, N. B.; Tolstykh, E. I.; Degteva, M. O.

A biokinetic model for strontium in humans is necessary for quantification of internal doses due to strontium radioisotopes. The ICRP-recommended biokinetic model for strontium has limitation for use in a population study, because it is not gender specific and does not cover all age ranges. The extensive Techa River data set on 90Sr in humans (tens of thousands of measurements) is a unique source of data on long-term strontium retention for men and women of all ages at intake. These, as well as published data, were used for evaluation of age- and gender-specific parameters for a new compartment biokinetic modelmore » for strontium (Sr-AGe model). The Sr-AGe model has similar structure as the ICRP model for the alkaline earth elements. The following parameters were mainly reevaluated: gastro-intestinal absorption and parameters related to the processes of bone formation and resorption defining calcium and strontium transfers in skeletal compartments. The Sr-AGe model satisfactorily describes available data sets on strontium retention for different kinds of intake (dietary and intravenous) at different ages (0–80 years old) and demonstrates good agreement with data sets for different ethnic groups. The Sr-AGe model can be used for dose assessment in epidemiological studies of general population exposed to ingested strontium radioisotopes.« less

Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) population dynamics and bamboo (subfamily Bambusoideae) life history: a structured population approach to examining carrying capacity when the prey are semelparous

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, J.; Ackleh, A.S.; Leonard, B.P.; Wang, Hongfang

1999-01-01

The giant panda, Ailuropoda melanoleuca, is a highly specialized Ursid whose diet consists almost entirely of various species of bamboo. Bamboo (Bambusoideae) is a grass subfamily whose species often exhibit a synchronous semelparity. Synchronous semelparity can create local drops in carrying capacity for the panda. We modeled the interaction of pandas and their bamboo food resources with an age structured panda population model linked to a natural history model of bamboo biomass dynamics based on literature values of bamboo biomass, and giant panda life history dynamics. This paper reports the results of our examination of the interaction between pandas and their bamboo food resource and its implications for panda conservation. In the model all panda populations were well below the carrying capacity of the habitat. The giant panda populations growth was most sensitive to changes in birth rates and removal of reproductive aged individuals. Periodic starvation that has been documented in conjunction with bamboo die-offs is probably related to the inability to move to other areas within the region where bamboo is still available. Based on the results of this model, giant panda conservation should concentrate on keeping breeding individuals in the wild, keep corridors to different bamboo species open to pandas, and to concentrate research on bamboo life history.

An "age"-structured model of hematopoietic stem cell organization with application to chronic myeloid leukemia.

PubMed

Roeder, Ingo; Herberg, Maria; Horn, Matthias

2009-04-01

Previously, we have modeled hematopoietic stem cell organization by a stochastic, single cell-based approach. Applications to different experimental systems demonstrated that this model consistently explains a broad variety of in vivo and in vitro data. A major advantage of the agent-based model (ABM) is the representation of heterogeneity within the hematopoietic stem cell population. However, this advantage comes at the price of time-consuming simulations if the systems become large. One example in this respect is the modeling of disease and treatment dynamics in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), where the realistic number of individual cells to be considered exceeds 10(6). To overcome this deficiency, without losing the representation of the inherent heterogeneity of the stem cell population, we here propose to approximate the ABM by a system of partial differential equations (PDEs). The major benefit of such an approach is its independence from the size of the system. Although this mean field approach includes a number of simplifying assumptions compared to the ABM, it retains the key structure of the model including the "age"-structure of stem cells. We show that the PDE model qualitatively and quantitatively reproduces the results of the agent-based approach.

Estimating age from recapture data: integrating incremental growth measures with ancillary data to infer age-at-length

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, Mitchell J.; Link, William A.

2011-01-01

Estimating the age of individuals in wild populations can be of fundamental importance for answering ecological questions, modeling population demographics, and managing exploited or threatened species. Significant effort has been devoted to determining age through the use of growth annuli, secondary physical characteristics related to age, and growth models. Many species, however, either do not exhibit physical characteristics useful for independent age validation or are too rare to justify sacrificing a large number of individuals to establish the relationship between size and age. Length-at-age models are well represented in the fisheries and other wildlife management literature. Many of these models overlook variation in growth rates of individuals and consider growth parameters as population parameters. More recent models have taken advantage of hierarchical structuring of parameters and Bayesian inference methods to allow for variation among individuals as functions of environmental covariates or individual-specific random effects. Here, we describe hierarchical models in which growth curves vary as individual-specific stochastic processes, and we show how these models can be fit using capture–recapture data for animals of unknown age along with data for animals of known age. We combine these independent data sources in a Bayesian analysis, distinguishing natural variation (among and within individuals) from measurement error. We illustrate using data for African dwarf crocodiles, comparing von Bertalanffy and logistic growth models. The analysis provides the means of predicting crocodile age, given a single measurement of head length. The von Bertalanffy was much better supported than the logistic growth model and predicted that dwarf crocodiles grow from 19.4 cm total length at birth to 32.9 cm in the first year and 45.3 cm by the end of their second year. Based on the minimum size of females observed with hatchlings, reproductive maturity was estimated to be at nine years. These size benchmarks are believed to represent thresholds for important demographic parameters; improved estimates of age, therefore, will increase the precision of population projection models. The modeling approach that we present can be applied to other species and offers significant advantages when multiple sources of data are available and traditional aging techniques are not practical.

On the probabilistic structure of water age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porporato, Amilcare; Calabrese, Salvatore

2015-05-01

The age distribution of water in hydrologic systems has received renewed interest recently, especially in relation to watershed response to rainfall inputs. The purpose of this contribution is first to draw attention to existing theories of age distributions in population dynamics, fluid mechanics and stochastic groundwater, and in particular to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation and its generalizations and solutions. A second and more important goal is to clarify that, when hydrologic fluxes are modeled by means of time-varying stochastic processes, the age distributions must themselves be treated as random functions. Once their probabilistic structure is obtained, it can be used to characterize the variability of age distributions in real systems and thus help quantify the inherent uncertainty in the field determination of water age. We illustrate these concepts with reference to a stochastic storage model, which has been used as a minimalist model of soil moisture and streamflow dynamics.

Age structure is critical to the population dynamics and survival of honeybee colonies

PubMed Central

Betti, M. I.; Wahl, L. M.

2016-01-01

Age structure is an important feature of the division of labour within honeybee colonies, but its effects on colony dynamics have rarely been explored. We present a model of a honeybee colony that incorporates this key feature, and use this model to explore the effects of both winter and disease on the fate of the colony. The model offers a novel explanation for the frequently observed phenomenon of ‘spring dwindle’, which emerges as a natural consequence of the age-structured dynamics. Furthermore, the results indicate that a model taking age structure into account markedly affects the predicted timing and severity of disease within a bee colony. The timing of the onset of disease with respect to the changing seasons may also have a substantial impact on the fate of a honeybee colony. Finally, simulations predict that an infection may persist in a honeybee colony over several years, with effects that compound over time. Thus, the ultimate collapse of the colony may be the result of events several years past. PMID:28018627

Integration of Harvest and Time-to-Event Data Used to Estimate Demographic Parameters for White-tailed Deer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norton, Andrew S.

An integral component of managing game species is an understanding of population dynamics and relative abundance. Harvest data are frequently used to estimate abundance of white-tailed deer. Unless harvest age-structure is representative of the population age-structure and harvest vulnerability remains constant from year to year, these data alone are of limited value. Additional model structure and auxiliary information has accommodated this shortcoming. Specifically, integrated age-at-harvest (AAH) state-space population models can formally combine multiple sources of data, and regularization via hierarchical model structure can increase flexibility of model parameters. I collected known fates data, which I evaluated and used to inform trends in survival parameters for an integrated AAH model. I used temperature and snow depth covariates to predict survival outside of the hunting season, and opening weekend temperature and percent of corn harvest covariates to predict hunting season survival. When auxiliary empirical data were unavailable for the AAH model, moderately informative priors provided sufficient information for convergence and parameter estimates. The AAH model was most sensitive to errors in initial abundance, but this error was calibrated after 3 years. Among vital rates, the AAH model was most sensitive to reporting rates (percentage of mortality during the hunting season related to harvest). The AAH model, using only harvest data, was able to track changing abundance trends due to changes in survival rates even when prior models did not inform these changes (i.e. prior models were constant when truth varied). I also compared AAH model results with estimates from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WIDNR). Trends in abundance estimates from both models were similar, although AAH model predictions were systematically higher than WIDNR estimates in the East study area. When I incorporated auxiliary information (i.e. integrated AAH model) about survival outside the hunting season from known fates data, predicted trends appeared more closely related to what was expected. Disagreements between the AAH model and WIDNR estimates in the East were likely related to biased predictions for reporting and survival rates from the AAH model.

Altruistic aging: The evolutionary dynamics balancing longevity and evolvability.

PubMed

Herrera, Minette; Miller, Aaron; Nishimura, Joel

2017-04-01

Altruism is typically associated with traits or behaviors that benefit the population as a whole, but are costly to the individual. We propose that, when the environment is rapidly changing, senescence (age-related deterioration) can be altruistic. According to numerical simulations of an agent-based model, while long-lived individuals can outcompete their short lived peers, populations composed of long-lived individuals are more likely to go extinct during periods of rapid environmental change. Moreover, as in many situations where other cooperative behavior arises, senescence can be stabilized in a structured population.

Predation rates by North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) - Predictions from models on gastric evacuation and bioenergetics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansson, S.; Rudstam, L. G.; Kitchell, J.F.; Hilden, M.; Johnson, B.L.; Peppard, P.E.

1996-01-01

We compared four different methods for estimating predation rates by North Sea cod (Gadus moi hua). Three estimates, based on gastric evacuation rates, came from an ICES multispecies working group and the fourth from a bioenergetics model. The bioenergetics model was developed from a review of literature on cod physiology. The three gastric evacuation rate models produced very different prey consumption estimates for small (2 kg) fish. For most size and age classes, the bioenergetics model predicted food consumption rates intermediate to those predicted by the gastric evacuation models. Using the standard ICES model and the average population abundance and age structure for 1974-1989, annual, prey consumption by the North Sea cod population (age greater than or equal to 1) was 840 kilotons. The other two evacuation rate models produced estimates of 1020 and 1640 kilotons, respectively. The bioenergetics model estimate was 1420 kilotons. The major differences between models were due to consumption rate estimates for younger age groups of cod. (C) 1996 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea

How Immunocontraception Can Contribute to Elephant Management in Small, Enclosed Reserves: Munyawana Population as a Case Study

PubMed Central

Druce, Heleen C.; Mackey, Robin L.; Slotow, Rob

2011-01-01

Immunocontraception has been widely used as a management tool to reduce population growth in captive as well as wild populations of various fauna. We model the use of an individual-based rotational immunocontraception plan on a wild elephant, Loxodonta africana, population and quantify the social and reproductive advantages of this method of implementation using adaptive management. The use of immunocontraception on an individual, rotational basis stretches the inter-calving interval for each individual female elephant to a management-determined interval, preventing exposing females to unlimited long-term immunocontraception use (which may have as yet undocumented negative effects). Such rotational immunocontraception can effectively lower population growth rates, age the population, and alter the age structure. Furthermore, such structured intervention can simulate natural process such as predation or episodic catastrophic events (e.g., drought), which regulates calf recruitment within an abnormally structured population. A rotational immunocontraception plan is a feasible and useful elephant population management tool, especially in a small, enclosed conservation area. Such approaches should be considered for other long-lived, social species in enclosed areas where the long-term consequences of consistent contraception may be unknown. PMID:22174758

Age structured dynamical model for an endangered lizard Eulamprus leuraensis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Supriatna, A. K.; Rachmadani, Q.; Ilahi, F.; Anggriani, N.; Nuraini, N.

2014-02-01

The Blue Mountains Water Skink, Eulamprus leuraensis, is listed as an endangered species under the IUCN Red List. This lizard species has a typical characteristic of growth with a low fecundity. It is known that the offspring quality may decline with maternal age of the parents despite they can grow rapidly from neonatal size to adult size within two to three years. It is also believed that low adult survival rates and specialization on rare and fragmented type of habitat are the main cause leading to the endangered status of the lizard. A mathematical model with age structure for Eulamprus leuraensis, taking into account the variation of survival rate in each structure and the declining of offspring quality with respect to maternal age is considered here. Stable coexistence of non-trivial equilibriumis shown. It is also shown that an endangered status is due to combination oflow reproductive output and low rates of adult survival. Further, understanding the age structure within populations can facilitate efective management of the endangered species.

Argon behaviour in an inverted Barrovian sequence, Sikkim Himalaya: The consequences of temperature and timescale on 40Ar/39Ar mica geochronology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mottram, Catherine M.; Warren, Clare J.; Halton, Alison M.; Kelley, Simon P.; Harris, Nigel B. W.

2015-12-01

40Ar/39Ar dating of metamorphic rocks sometimes yields complicated datasets which are difficult to interpret in terms of timescales of the metamorphic cycle. Single-grain fusion and step-heating data were obtained for rocks sampled through a major thrust-sense shear zone (the Main Central Thrust) and the associated inverted metamorphic zone in the Sikkim region of the eastern Himalaya. This transect provides a natural laboratory to explore factors influencing apparent 40Ar/39Ar ages in similar lithologies at a variety of metamorphic pressure and temperature (P-T) conditions. The 40Ar/39Ar dataset records progressively younger apparent age populations and a decrease in within-sample dispersion with increasing temperature through the sequence. The white mica populations span 2-9 Ma within each sample in the structurally lower levels (garnet grade) but only 0-3 Ma at structurally higher levels (kyanite-sillimanite grade). Mean white mica single-grain fusion population ages vary from 16.2 ± 3.9 Ma (2σ) to 13.2 ± 1.3 Ma (2σ) from lowest to highest levels. White mica step-heating data from the same samples yields plateau ages from 14.27 ± 0.13 Ma to 12.96 ± 0.05 Ma. Biotite yield older apparent age populations with mean single-grain fusion dates varying from 74.7 ± 11.8 Ma (2σ) at the lowest structural levels to 18.6 ± 4.7 Ma (2σ) at the highest structural levels; the step-heating plateaux are commonly disturbed. Temperatures > 600 °C at pressures of 0.4-0.8 GPa sustained over > 5 Ma, appear to be required for white mica and biotite ages to be consistent with diffusive, open-system cooling. At lower temperatures, and/or over shorter metamorphic timescales, more 40Ar is retained than results from simple diffusion models suggest. Diffusion modelling of Ar in white mica from the highest structural levels suggests that the high-temperature rocks cooled at a rate of 50-80 °C Ma- 1, consistent with rapid thrusting, extrusion and exhumation along the Main Central Thrust during the mid-Miocene.

Old moms with new tricks: modeling the effects of age-specific spawning behaviors in Pacific Ocean perch

EPA Science Inventory

In commercially exploited, long-lived fish species, age structure plays an important role in determining population stability and resilience to human and environmental impacts. The often observed increase in energy allocation per offspring by older females can improve larval surv...

Development of a stock-recruitment model and assessment of biological reference points for the Lake Erie walleye fishery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Yingming; Kocovsky, Patrick M.; Madenjian, Charles P.

2013-01-01

We developed an updated stock–recruitment relationship for Lake Erie Walleye Sander vitreus using the Akaike information criterion model selection approach. Our best stock–recruitment relationship was a Ricker spawner–recruit function to which spring warming rate was added as an environmental variable, and this regression model explained 39% of the variability in Walleye recruitment over the 1978 through 2006 year-classes. Thus, most of the variability in Lake Erie Walleye recruitment appeared to be attributable to factors other than spawning stock size and spring warming rate. The abundance of age-0 Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum, which was an important term in previous models, may still be an important factor for Walleye recruitment, but poorer ability to monitor Gizzard Shad since the late 1990s could have led to that term failing to appear in our best model. Secondly, we used numerical simulation to demonstrate how to use the stock recruitment relationship to characterize the population dynamics (such as stable age structure, carrying capacity, and maximum sustainable yield) and some biological reference points (such as fishing rates at different important biomass or harvest levels) for an age-structured population in a deterministic way.

The Relationship between Mono-abundance and Mono-age Stellar Populations in the Milky Way Disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minchev, I.; Steinmetz, M.; Chiappini, C.; Martig, M.; Anders, F.; Matijevic, G.; de Jong, R. S.

2017-01-01

Studying the Milky Way disk structure using stars in narrow bins of [Fe/H] and [α/Fe] has recently been proposed as a powerful method to understand the Galactic thick and thin disk formation. It has been assumed so far that these mono-abundance populations (MAPs) are also coeval, or mono-age, populations. Here we study this relationship for a Milky Way chemodynamical model and show that equivalence between MAPs and mono-age populations exists only for the high-[α/Fe] tail, where the chemical evolution curves of different Galactic radii are far apart. At lower [α/Fe]-values an MAP is composed of stars with a range in ages, even for small observational uncertainties and a small MAP bin size. Due to the disk inside-out formation, for these MAPs younger stars are typically located at larger radii, which results in negative radial age gradients that can be as large as 2 Gyr kpc-1. Positive radial age gradients can result for MAPs at the lowest [α/Fe] and highest [Fe/H] end. Such variations with age prevent the simple interpretation of observations for which accurate ages are not available. Studying the variation with radius of the stellar surface density and scale height in our model, we find good agreement to recent analyses of the APOGEE red-clump (RC) sample when 1-4 Gyr old stars dominate (as expected for the RC). Our results suggest that the APOGEE data are consistent with a Milky Way model for which mono-age populations flare for all ages. We propose observational tests for the validity of our predictions and argue that using accurate age measurements, such as from asteroseismology, is crucial for putting constraints on Galactic formation and evolution.

A dynamic model of the marriage market-Part 2: simulation of marital states and application to empirical data.

PubMed

Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L

2013-09-01

A dynamic, two-sex, age-structured marriage model is presented. Part 1 focused on first marriage only and described a marriage market matching algorithm. In Part 2 the model is extended to include divorce, widowing, and remarriage. The model produces a self-consistent set of marital states distributed by age and sex in a stable population by means of a gender-symmetric numerical method. The model is compared with empirical data for the case of Zambia. Furthermore, a dynamic marriage function for a changing population is demonstrated in simulations of three hypothetical scenarios of elevated mortality in young to middle adulthood. The marriage model has its primary application to simulation of HIV-AIDS epidemics in African countries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire-Brief Form in adolescents.

PubMed

Fonseca-Pedrero, Eduardo; Paíno-Piñeiro, Mercedes; Lemos-Giráldez, Serafín; Villazón-García, Ursula; Muñiz, José

2009-06-01

The main objective of the study was to validate the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire-Brief (SPQ-B) in a sample of non-clinical adolescents. In addition, the schizotypal personality structure and differences in the dimensions of schizotypy according to gender and age are analyzed. The sample comprises 1683 students, 818 males (48.6%), with a mean age of 15.9 years (SD=1.2). The results showed that the SPQ-B had adequate psychometric properties. Internal consistency of the subscales and total score ranged from 0.61 to 0.81. Confirmatory factor analyses indicated that the three-factor model (positive, negative, and disorganized) and the four-factor model (positive, paranoid, negative, and disorganized) fit reasonably well in comparison to the remaining models. With regard to gender and age, statistically significant differences were found due to age but not to gender. In line with previous literature, the results confirmed the multi-factor structure of the schizotypal personality in non-clinical adolescent populations. Future studies could use the SPQ-B as a screening self-report of rapid and efficient application for the detection of adolescents vulnerable to the development of schizophrenia-spectrum disorders in the general population, in genetically high-risk samples and in clinical studies.

Modeling socio-demography to capture tuberculosis transmission dynamics in a low burden setting

PubMed Central

Ajelli, Marco; Yang, Zhenhua; Merler, Stefano; Furlanello, Cesare; Kirschner, Denise

2011-01-01

Evidence of preferential mixing through selected social routes has been suggested for the transmission of tuberculosis (TB) infection in low burden settings. A realistic modelization of these contact routes is needed to appropriately assess the impact of individually targeted control strategies, such as contact network investigation of index cases and treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI). We propose an age-structured, socio-demographic individual based model (IBM) with a realistic, time-evolving structure of preferential contacts in a population. In particular, transmission within households, schools and work-places, together with a component of casual, distance-dependent contacts are considered. We also compared the model against two other formulations having no social structure of contacts (homogeneous mixing transmission): a baseline deterministic model without age structure and an age-structured IBM. The socio-demographic IBM better fitted recent longitudinal data on TB epidemiology in Arkansas, USA, which serves as an example of a low burden setting. Inclusion of age structure in the model proved fundamental to capturing actual proportions of reactivated TB cases (as opposed to recently transmitted) as well as profiling age-group specific incidence. The socio-demographic structure additionally provides a prediction of TB transmission rates (the rate of infection in household contacts and the rate of secondary cases in household and workplace contacts). These results suggest that the socio-demographic IBM is an optimal choice for evaluating current control strategies, including contact network investigation of index cases, and the simulation of alternative scenarios, particularly for TB eradication targets. PMID:21906603

On the probabilistic structure of water age: Probabilistic Water Age

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porporato, Amilcare; Calabrese, Salvatore

We report the age distribution of water in hydrologic systems has received renewed interest recently, especially in relation to watershed response to rainfall inputs. The purpose of this contribution is first to draw attention to existing theories of age distributions in population dynamics, fluid mechanics and stochastic groundwater, and in particular to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation and its generalizations and solutions. A second and more important goal is to clarify that, when hydrologic fluxes are modeled by means of time-varying stochastic processes, the age distributions must themselves be treated as random functions. Once their probabilistic structure is obtained, it canmore » be used to characterize the variability of age distributions in real systems and thus help quantify the inherent uncertainty in the field determination of water age. Finally, we illustrate these concepts with reference to a stochastic storage model, which has been used as a minimalist model of soil moisture and streamflow dynamics.« less

On the probabilistic structure of water age: Probabilistic Water Age

DOE PAGES

Porporato, Amilcare; Calabrese, Salvatore

2015-04-23

We report the age distribution of water in hydrologic systems has received renewed interest recently, especially in relation to watershed response to rainfall inputs. The purpose of this contribution is first to draw attention to existing theories of age distributions in population dynamics, fluid mechanics and stochastic groundwater, and in particular to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation and its generalizations and solutions. A second and more important goal is to clarify that, when hydrologic fluxes are modeled by means of time-varying stochastic processes, the age distributions must themselves be treated as random functions. Once their probabilistic structure is obtained, it canmore » be used to characterize the variability of age distributions in real systems and thus help quantify the inherent uncertainty in the field determination of water age. Finally, we illustrate these concepts with reference to a stochastic storage model, which has been used as a minimalist model of soil moisture and streamflow dynamics.« less

Effects of uncertainty and variability on population declines and IUCN Red List classifications.

PubMed

Rueda-Cediel, Pamela; Anderson, Kurt E; Regan, Tracey J; Regan, Helen M

2018-01-22

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Categories and Criteria is a quantitative framework for classifying species according to extinction risk. Population models may be used to estimate extinction risk or population declines. Uncertainty and variability arise in threat classifications through measurement and process error in empirical data and uncertainty in the models used to estimate extinction risk and population declines. Furthermore, species traits are known to affect extinction risk. We investigated the effects of measurement and process error, model type, population growth rate, and age at first reproduction on the reliability of risk classifications based on projected population declines on IUCN Red List classifications. We used an age-structured population model to simulate true population trajectories with different growth rates, reproductive ages and levels of variation, and subjected them to measurement error. We evaluated the ability of scalar and matrix models parameterized with these simulated time series to accurately capture the IUCN Red List classification generated with true population declines. Under all levels of measurement error tested and low process error, classifications were reasonably accurate; scalar and matrix models yielded roughly the same rate of misclassifications, but the distribution of errors differed; matrix models led to greater overestimation of extinction risk than underestimations; process error tended to contribute to misclassifications to a greater extent than measurement error; and more misclassifications occurred for fast, rather than slow, life histories. These results indicate that classifications of highly threatened taxa (i.e., taxa with low growth rates) under criterion A are more likely to be reliable than for less threatened taxa when assessed with population models. Greater scrutiny needs to be placed on data used to parameterize population models for species with high growth rates, particularly when available evidence indicates a potential transition to higher risk categories. © 2018 Society for Conservation Biology.

FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics): an open-source software system for modeling infectious diseases and control strategies using census-based populations.

PubMed

Grefenstette, John J; Brown, Shawn T; Rosenfeld, Roni; DePasse, Jay; Stone, Nathan T B; Cooley, Phillip C; Wheaton, William D; Fyshe, Alona; Galloway, David D; Sriram, Anuroop; Guclu, Hasan; Abraham, Thomas; Burke, Donald S

2013-10-08

Mathematical and computational models provide valuable tools that help public health planners to evaluate competing health interventions, especially for novel circumstances that cannot be examined through observational or controlled studies, such as pandemic influenza. The spread of diseases like influenza depends on the mixing patterns within the population, and these mixing patterns depend in part on local factors including the spatial distribution and age structure of the population, the distribution of size and composition of households, employment status and commuting patterns of adults, and the size and age structure of schools. Finally, public health planners must take into account the health behavior patterns of the population, patterns that often vary according to socioeconomic factors such as race, household income, and education levels. FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics) is a freely available open-source agent-based modeling system based closely on models used in previously published studies of pandemic influenza. This version of FRED uses open-access census-based synthetic populations that capture the demographic and geographic heterogeneities of the population, including realistic household, school, and workplace social networks. FRED epidemic models are currently available for every state and county in the United States, and for selected international locations. State and county public health planners can use FRED to explore the effects of possible influenza epidemics in specific geographic regions of interest and to help evaluate the effect of interventions such as vaccination programs and school closure policies. FRED is available under a free open source license in order to contribute to the development of better modeling tools and to encourage open discussion of modeling tools being used to evaluate public health policies. We also welcome participation by other researchers in the further development of FRED.

An evaluation of agreement between pectoral spines and otoliths for estimating ages of catfishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olive, J.A.; Schramm, Harold; Gerard, Patrick D.; Irwin, E.

2011-01-01

Otoliths have been shown to provide more accurate ages than pectoral spine sections for several catfish populations; but sampling otoliths requires euthanizing the specimen, whereas spines can be sampled non-lethally. To evaluate whether, and under what conditions, spines provide the same or similar age estimates as otoliths, we examined data sets of individual fish aged from pectoral spines and otoliths for six blue catfish Ictalurus furcatus populations (n=420), 14 channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus populations (n=997), and 10 flathead catfish Pylodictus olivaris populations (n=947) from lotic and lentic waters throughout the central and eastern U.S. Logistic regression determined that agreement between ages estimated from otoliths and spines was consistently related to age, but inconsistently related to growth rate. When modeled at mean growth rate, we found at least 80% probability of no difference in spine- and otolith-assigned ages up to ages 4 and 5 for blue and channel catfish, respectively. For flathead catfish, an 80% probability of agreement between spine- and otolith-assigned ages did not occur at any age due to high incidence of differences in assigned ages even for age-1 fish. Logistic regression models predicted at least 80% probability that spine and otolith ages differed by ≤1 year up to ages 13, 16, and 9 for blue, channel, and flathead catfish, respectively. Age-bias assessment found mean spine-assigned age differed by less than 1 year from otolith-assigned age up to ages 19, 9, and 17 for blue catfish, channel catfish, and flathead catfish, respectively. These results can be used to help guide decisions about which structure is most appropriate for estimating catfish ages for particular populations and management objectives.

Mixing times towards demographic equilibrium in insect populations with temperature variable age structures.

PubMed

Damos, Petros

2015-08-01

In this study, we use entropy related mixing rate modules to measure the effects of temperature on insect population stability and demographic breakdown. The uncertainty in the age of the mother of a randomly chosen newborn, and how it is moved after a finite act of time steps, is modeled using a stochastic transformation of the Leslie matrix. Age classes are represented as a cycle graph and its transitions towards the stable age distribution are brought forth as an exact Markov chain. The dynamics of divergence, from a non equilibrium state towards equilibrium, are evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy. Moreover, Kullback-Leibler distance is applied as information-theoretic measure to estimate exact mixing times of age transitions probabilities towards equilibrium. Using empirically data, we show that on the initial conditions and simulated projection's trough time, that population entropy can effectively be applied to detect demographic variability towards equilibrium under different temperature conditions. Changes in entropy are correlated with the fluctuations of the insect population decay rates (i.e. demographic stability towards equilibrium). Moreover, shorter mixing times are directly linked to lower entropy rates and vice versa. This may be linked to the properties of the insect model system, which in contrast to warm blooded animals has the ability to greatly change its metabolic and demographic rates. Moreover, population entropy and the related distance measures that are applied, provide a means to measure these rates. The current results and model projections provide clear biological evidence why dynamic population entropy may be useful to measure population stability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Home educating in an extended family culture and aging society may fare best during a pandemic.

PubMed

Dawson, Wayne; Yamamoto, Kenji

2009-09-28

Large cities can contain populations that move rapidly from one section to another in an efficient transportation network. An emerging air-borne or contact based pathogen could use these transportation routes to rapidly spread an infection throughout an entire population in a short time. Further, in many developed countries, the aging population is increasing. The family structure in these societies may also affect the course of a disease. To help understand the impact of an epidemic on family structure in a networked population, an individual based computer model that randomly generates networked cities with a specified range of population and disease characteristics and individual schedules, infectivity, transmission and hygiene factors was developed. Several salient issues emerged. First, a city of highly active individuals may in fact diminish the number of fatalities because the average duration of the interactions between agents is reduced. Second, home schooling can significantly improve survival because the institutional clustering of weak individuals is minimized. Third, the worst scenario for an aging population is the nuclear family where the aged population is confined to large housing facilities. Naturally, hygiene is the first barrier to infection. The results suggest that societies where extended families and small groups manage most of their own affairs may also be the most suitable for defense against a pandemic. This may prove applicable in city planning and policy making.

Human judgment vs. quantitative models for the management of ecological resources.

PubMed

Holden, Matthew H; Ellner, Stephen P

2016-07-01

Despite major advances in quantitative approaches to natural resource management, there has been resistance to using these tools in the actual practice of managing ecological populations. Given a managed system and a set of assumptions, translated into a model, optimization methods can be used to solve for the most cost-effective management actions. However, when the underlying assumptions are not met, such methods can potentially lead to decisions that harm the environment and economy. Managers who develop decisions based on past experience and judgment, without the aid of mathematical models, can potentially learn about the system and develop flexible management strategies. However, these strategies are often based on subjective criteria and equally invalid and often unstated assumptions. Given the drawbacks of both methods, it is unclear whether simple quantitative models improve environmental decision making over expert opinion. In this study, we explore how well students, using their experience and judgment, manage simulated fishery populations in an online computer game and compare their management outcomes to the performance of model-based decisions. We consider harvest decisions generated using four different quantitative models: (1) the model used to produce the simulated population dynamics observed in the game, with the values of all parameters known (as a control), (2) the same model, but with unknown parameter values that must be estimated during the game from observed data, (3) models that are structurally different from those used to simulate the population dynamics, and (4) a model that ignores age structure. Humans on average performed much worse than the models in cases 1-3, but in a small minority of scenarios, models produced worse outcomes than those resulting from students making decisions based on experience and judgment. When the models ignored age structure, they generated poorly performing management decisions, but still outperformed students using experience and judgment 66% of the time. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Eco-genetic modeling of contemporary life-history evolution.

PubMed

Dunlop, Erin S; Heino, Mikko; Dieckmann, Ulf

2009-10-01

We present eco-genetic modeling as a flexible tool for exploring the course and rates of multi-trait life-history evolution in natural populations. We build on existing modeling approaches by combining features that facilitate studying the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of realistically structured populations. In particular, the joint consideration of age and size structure enables the analysis of phenotypically plastic populations with more than a single growth trajectory, and ecological feedback is readily included in the form of density dependence and frequency dependence. Stochasticity and life-history trade-offs can also be implemented. Critically, eco-genetic models permit the incorporation of salient genetic detail such as a population's genetic variances and covariances and the corresponding heritabilities, as well as the probabilistic inheritance and phenotypic expression of quantitative traits. These inclusions are crucial for predicting rates of evolutionary change on both contemporary and longer timescales. An eco-genetic model can be tightly coupled with empirical data and therefore may have considerable practical relevance, in terms of generating testable predictions and evaluating alternative management measures. To illustrate the utility of these models, we present as an example an eco-genetic model used to study harvest-induced evolution of multiple traits in Atlantic cod. The predictions of our model (most notably that harvesting induces a genetic reduction in age and size at maturation, an increase or decrease in growth capacity depending on the minimum-length limit, and an increase in reproductive investment) are corroborated by patterns observed in wild populations. The predicted genetic changes occur together with plastic changes that could phenotypically mask the former. Importantly, our analysis predicts that evolutionary changes show little signs of reversal following a harvest moratorium. This illustrates how predictions offered by eco-genetic models can enable and guide evolutionarily sustainable resource management.

Population density, socioeconomic environment and all-cause mortality: a multilevel survival analysis of 2.7 million individuals in Denmark.

PubMed

Meijer, Mathias; Kejs, Anne Mette; Stock, Christiane; Bloomfield, Kim; Ejstrud, Bo; Schlattmann, Peter

2012-03-01

This study examines the relative effects of population density and area-level SES on all-cause mortality in Denmark. A shared frailty model was fitted with 2.7 million persons aged 30-81 years in 2,121 parishes. Residence in areas with high population density increased all-cause mortality for all age groups. For older age groups, residence in areas with higher proportions of unemployed persons had an additional effect. Area-level factors explained considerably more variation in mortality among the elderly than among younger generations. Overall this study suggests that structural prevention efforts in neighborhoods could help reduce mortality when mediating processes between area-level socioeconomic status, population density and mortality are found. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Are plague pits of particular use to palaeoepidemiologists?

PubMed

Waldron, H A

2001-02-01

The demography and pattern of disease of skeletal assemblages may not accurately reflect those of the living population of which they were once a part. The hypothesis tested here was that skeletons from a mass disaster would more closely approximate to a living population than those from a conventional cemetery. Six hundred skeletons recovered from a Black Death plague pit in London were compared with 236 skeletons recovered from an overlying medieval cemetery. Age and sex were determined by standard anthropological means by a single observer and adjustments were made to correct for those skeletons for which either or both could not be established. An estimate of age structure of the living medieval population of London was made, using model life tables. The age and sex distribution and the pattern of disease in the Black Death skeletons did not differ substantially from those in the control group of skeletons. Both assemblages tended to overestimate the numbers in the younger age groups of the model population and underestimate the numbers in the oldest age group. On the evidence from this single site, a skeletal assemblage from a mass disaster does not provide a better representation of the living population from which it was derived than that from a conventional cemetery.

Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinker, M. Timothy; Doak, Daniel F.; Estes, James A.; Hatfield, Brian B.; Staedler, Michelle M.; Gross, Arthur

2006-01-01

Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.

1979-01-01

The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

Setup of a bone aging experimental model in the rabbit comparing changes in cortical and trabecular bone: Morphological and morphometric study in the femur.

PubMed

Pazzaglia, Ugo E; Sibilia, Valeria; Congiu, Terenzio; Pagani, Francesca; Ravanelli, Marco; Zarattini, Guido

2015-07-01

Bone aging was studied in an experimental model (rabbit femur) in three populations aged 0.5, 1.5, and 7.5 years. Cortical bone histology was compared with a data set from a 1.5-month-old population of an earlier published paper. From 0.5-year-old onward, the mean femur length did not increase further. Thereafter, the mean marrow area increased and the cortical area decreased significantly with aging. This was associated with a structural pattern transformation from plexiform to laminar and then Haversian-like type. The distal meta-epiphysis bone trabecular density of the oldest populations also was significantly lower in specific regions of interest (ROI). Percentage sealed primary vascular canals in laminar bone significantly increased with aging without variation of percentage sealed secondary osteons. Remodeling rate reflected by the density of cutting cones did not significantly change among the age populations. These data suggest that laminar bone vascular pattern is more functional in the fast diaphyseal expansion but not much streamlined with the renewal of blood flow during secondary remodeling. Bone aging was characterized by: 1) secondary remodeling subendosteally; 2) increment of sealed primary vascular canals number; 3) increased calcium content of the cortex; 4) cortical and trabecular bone mass loss in specific ROIs. Taken together, the present data may give a morphological and morphometric basis to perform comparative studies on experimental models of osteoporosis in the rabbit. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A demographic study of the exponential distribution applied to uneven-aged forests

Treesearch

Jeffrey H. Gove

2016-01-01

A demographic approach based on a size-structured version of the McKendrick-Von Foerster equation is used to demonstrate a theoretical link between the population size distribution and the underlying vital rates (recruitment, mortality and diameter growth) for the population of individuals whose diameter distribution is negative exponential. This model supports the...

THE TRANSMISSION AND PERSISTENCE OF ‘URBAN LEGENDS’: SOCIOLOGICAL APPLICATION OF AGE-STRUCTURED EPIDEMIC MODELS

PubMed Central

NOYMER, ANDREW

2009-01-01

This paper describes two related epidemic models of rumor transmission in an age-structured population. Rumors share with communicable disease certain basic aspects, which means that formal models of epidemics may be applied to the transmission of rumors. The results show that rumors may become entrenched very quickly and persist for a long time, even when skeptics are modeled to take an active role in trying to convince others that the rumor is false. This is a macrophenomeon, because individuals eventually cease to believe the rumor, but are replaced by new recruits. This replacement of former believers by new ones is an aspect of all the models, but the approach to stability is quicker, and involves smaller chance of extinction, in the model where skeptics actively try to counter the rumor, as opposed to the model where interest is naturally lost by believers. Skeptics hurt their own cause. The result shows that including age, or a variable for which age is a proxy (e.g., experience), can improve model fidelity and yield important insights. PMID:20351799

Generating a Dynamic Synthetic Population – Using an Age-Structured Two-Sex Model for Household Dynamics

PubMed Central

Namazi-Rad, Mohammad-Reza; Mokhtarian, Payam; Perez, Pascal

2014-01-01

Generating a reliable computer-simulated synthetic population is necessary for knowledge processing and decision-making analysis in agent-based systems in order to measure, interpret and describe each target area and the human activity patterns within it. In this paper, both synthetic reconstruction (SR) and combinatorial optimisation (CO) techniques are discussed for generating a reliable synthetic population for a certain geographic region (in Australia) using aggregated- and disaggregated-level information available for such an area. A CO algorithm using the quadratic function of population estimators is presented in this paper in order to generate a synthetic population while considering a two-fold nested structure for the individuals and households within the target areas. The baseline population in this study is generated from the confidentialised unit record files (CURFs) and 2006 Australian census tables. The dynamics of the created population is then projected over five years using a dynamic micro-simulation model for individual- and household-level demographic transitions. This projection is then compared with the 2011 Australian census. A prediction interval is provided for the population estimates obtained by the bootstrapping method, by which the variability structure of a predictor can be replicated in a bootstrap distribution. PMID:24733522

The marginal cost of public funds with an aging population.

PubMed

Wildasin, D E

1991-05-01

"As populations in the United States and other advanced economies grow older, the burden of social security and health care financing is expected to rise markedly. Payroll, income, and other taxes on working populations are projected to rise accordingly. The marginal welfare cost to workers of social security and other public expenditures is analyzed within the context of a two-period life cycle model. By relaxing separability assumptions that have become common in the literature, the theoretical structure properly incorporates the effect of these public expenditures on labor supply. Comparative statics results indicate that changing age structure is likely to raise the marginal welfare to workers of social security, education, and other public expenditures. Illustrative calculations for the United States confirm this result, suggesting that the cost to workers of incremental social security benefits may easily double by 2025-2050." excerpt

Age structure and cooperation in coevolutionary games on dynamic network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Zilong; Hu, Zhenhua; Zhou, Xiaoping; Yi, Jingzhang

2015-04-01

Our proposed model imitates the growth of a population and describes the age structure and the level of cooperation in games on dynamic network with continuous changes of structure and topology. The removal of nodes and links caused by age-dependent attack, together with the nodes addition standing for the newborns of population, badly ruins Matthew effect in this coevolutionary process. Though the network is generated by growth and preferential attachment, it degenerates into random network and it is no longer heterogeneous. When the removal of nodes and links is equal to the addition of nodes and links, the size of dynamic network is maintained in steady-state, so is the low level of cooperation. Severe structure variation, homogeneous topology and continuous invasion of new defection jointly make dynamic network unsuitable for the survival of cooperator even when the probability with which the newborn players initially adopt the strategy cooperation is high, while things change slightly when the connections of newborn players are restricted. Fortunately, moderate interactions in a generation trigger an optimal recovering process to encourage cooperation. The model developed in this paper outlines an explanation of the cohesion changes in the development process of an organization. Some suggestions for cooperative behavior improvement are given in the end.

Social Status, Cognitive Ability, and Educational Attainment as Predictors of Liberal Social Attitudes and Political Trust

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schoon, Ingrid; Cheng, Helen; Gale, Catharine R.; Batty, G. David; Deary, Ian J.

2010-01-01

We examined the prospective associations between family socio-economic background, childhood intelligence ("g") at age 11, educational and occupational attainment, and social attitudes at age 33 in a large (N = 8804), representative sample of the British population born in 1958. Structural equation Modeling identified a latent trait of…

Cooperation and age structure in spatial games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhen; Wang, Zhen; Zhu, Xiaodan; Arenzon, Jeferson J.

2012-01-01

We study the evolution of cooperation in evolutionary spatial games when the payoff correlates with the increasing age of players (the level of correlation is set through a single parameter, α). The demographic heterogeneous age distribution, directly affecting the outcome of the game, is thus shown to be responsible for enhancing the cooperative behavior in the population. In particular, moderate values of α allow cooperators not only to survive but to outcompete defectors, even when the temptation to defect is large and the ageless, standard α=0 model does not sustain cooperation. The interplay between age structure and noise is also considered, and we obtain the conditions for optimal levels of cooperation.

Perlecan expression influences the keratin 15‐positive cell population fate in the epidermis of aging skin

PubMed Central

Dos Santos, Morgan; Michopoulou, Anna; André‐Frei, Valérie; Boulesteix, Sophie; Guicher, Christine; Dayan, Guila; Whitelock, John; Damour, Odile; Rousselle, Patricia

2016-01-01

The epidermis is continuously renewed by stem cell proliferation and differentiation. Basal keratinocytes append the dermal‐epidermal junction, a cell surface‐associated, extracellular matrix that provides structural support and influences their behaviour. It consists of laminins, type IV collagen, nidogens, and perlecan, which are necessary for tissue organization and structural integrity. Perlecan is a heparan sulfate proteoglycan known to be involved in keratinocyte survival and differentiation. Aging affects the dermal epidermal junction resulting in decreased contact with keratinocytes, thus impacting epidermal renewal and homeostasis. We found that perlecan expression decreased during chronological skin aging. Our in vitro studies revealed reduced perlecan transcript levels in aged keratinocytes. The production of in vitro skin models revealed that aged keratinocytes formed a thin and poorly organized epidermis. Supplementing these models with purified perlecan reversed the phenomenon allowing restoration of a well‐differentiated multi‐layered epithelium. Perlecan down‐regulation in cultured keratinocytes caused depletion of the cell population that expressed keratin 15. This phenomenon depended on the perlecan heparan sulphate moieties, which suggested the involvement of a growth factor. Finally, we found defects in keratin 15 expression in the epidermis of aging skin. This study highlighted a new role for perlecan in maintaining the self‐renewal capacity of basal keratinocytes. PMID:26996820

Estimation by capture-recapture of recruitment and dispersal over several sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lebreton, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Pradel, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Spendelow, J.A.

2003-01-01

Dispersal in animal populations is intimately linked with accession to reproduction, i.e. recruitment, and population regulation. Dispersal processes are thus a key component of population dynamics to the same extent as reproduction or mortality processes. Despite the growing interest in spatial aspects of population dynamics, the methodology for estimating dispersal, in particular in relation with recruitment, is limited. In many animal populations, in particular vertebrates, the impossibility of following individuals over space and time in an exhaustive way leads to the need to frame the estimation of dispersal in the context of capture-recapture methodology. We present here a class of age-dependent multistate capture-recapture models for the simultaneous estimation of natal dispersal, breeding dispersal, and age-dependent recruitment. These models are suitable for populations in which individuals are marked at birth and then recaptured over several sites. Under simple constraints, they can be used in populations where non-breeders are not observed, as is often the case with colonial waterbirds monitored on their breeding grounds. Biological questions can be addressed by comparing models differing in structure, according to the generalized linear model philosophy broadly used in capture-recapture methodology. We illustrate the potential of this approach by an analysis of recruitment and dispersal in the roseate tern Sterna dougallii.

Incorporating harvest rates into the sex-age-kill model for white-tailed deer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norton, Andrew S.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Rosenberry, Christopher S.; Wallingford, Bret D.

2013-01-01

Although monitoring population trends is an essential component of game species management, wildlife managers rarely have complete counts of abundance. Often, they rely on population models to monitor population trends. As imperfect representations of real-world populations, models must be rigorously evaluated to be applied appropriately. Previous research has evaluated population models for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus); however, the precision and reliability of these models when tested against empirical measures of variability and bias largely is untested. We were able to statistically evaluate the Pennsylvania sex-age-kill (PASAK) population model using realistic error measured using data from 1,131 radiocollared white-tailed deer in Pennsylvania from 2002 to 2008. We used these data and harvest data (number killed, age-sex structure, etc.) to estimate precision of abundance estimates, identify the most efficient harvest data collection with respect to precision of parameter estimates, and evaluate PASAK model robustness to violation of assumptions. Median coefficient of variation (CV) estimates by Wildlife Management Unit, 13.2% in the most recent year, were slightly above benchmarks recommended for managing game species populations. Doubling reporting rates by hunters or doubling the number of deer checked by personnel in the field reduced median CVs to recommended levels. The PASAK model was robust to errors in estimates for adult male harvest rates but was sensitive to errors in subadult male harvest rates, especially in populations with lower harvest rates. In particular, an error in subadult (1.5-yr-old) male harvest rates resulted in the opposite error in subadult male, adult female, and juvenile population estimates. Also, evidence of a greater harvest probability for subadult female deer when compared with adult (≥2.5-yr-old) female deer resulted in a 9.5% underestimate of the population using the PASAK model. Because obtaining appropriate sample sizes, by management unit, to estimate harvest rate parameters each year may be too expensive, assumptions of constant annual harvest rates may be necessary. However, if changes in harvest regulations or hunter behavior influence subadult male harvest rates, the PASAK model could provide an unreliable index to population changes. 

White noise and synchronization shaping the age structure of the human population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cebrat, Stanislaw; Biecek, Przemyslaw; Bonkowska, Katarzyna; Kula, Mateusz

2007-06-01

We have modified the standard diploid Penna model of ageing in such a way that instead of threshold of defective loci resulting in genetic death of individuals, the fluctuation of environment and "personal" fluctuations of individuals were introduced. The sum of the both fluctuations describes the health status of the individual. While environmental fluctuations are the same for all individuals in the population, the personal component of fluctuations is composed of fluctuations corresponding to each physiological function (gene, genetic locus). It is rather accepted hypothesis that physiological parameters of any organism fluctuate highly nonlinearly. Transition to the synchronized behaviors could be a very strong diagnostic signal of the life threatening disorder. Thus, in our model, mutations of genes change the chaotic fluctuations representing the function of a wild gene to the synchronized signals generated by mutated genes. Genes are switched on chronologically, like in the standard Penna model. Accumulation of defective genes predicted by Medawar's theory of ageing leads to the replacement of uncorrelated white noise corresponding to the healthy organism by the correlated signals of defective functions. As a result we have got the age distribution of population corresponding to the human demographic data.

Biology Notes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holt, S.

1972-01-01

Short articles describing a model of protein synthesis, a simple constant temperature incubator, techniques for determining the age structure of populations from qualitative characters, an experimental demonstration of proteolytic enzyme action, and apparatus for demonstrating hydrotrophic response of roots and for measuring photosynthetic rate of…

Demand for resident hunting in the southeastern United States

Treesearch

Neelam Poudyal; Seong Hoon Cho; J. Michael Bowker

2008-01-01

We modeled hunting demand among resident hunters in the Southeastern United States. Our model revealed that future hunting demand will likely decline in this region. Population growth in the region will increase demand but structural change in the region's demography (e.g., "browning" and "aging "), along with declining forestland access will...

Minimizing the dependency ratio in a population with below-replacement fertility through immigration

PubMed Central

Simon, C.; Belyakov, A.O.; Feichtinger, G.

2012-01-01

Many industrialized countries face fertility rates below replacement level, combined with declining mortality especially in older ages. Consequently, the populations of these countries have started to age. One important indicator of age structures is the dependency ratio which is the ratio of the nonworking age population to the working age population. In this work we find the age-specific immigration profile that minimizes the dependency ratio in a stationary population with below-replacement fertility. It is assumed that the number of immigrants per age is limited. We consider two alternative policies. In the first one, we fix the total number of people who annually immigrate to a country. In the second one, we prescribe the size of the receiving country’s population. For both cases we provide numerical results for the optimal immigration profile, for the resulting age structure of the population, as well as for the dependency ratio. PMID:22781918

A Multidimensional Model of School Dropout from an 8-Year Longitudinal Study in a General High School Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fortin, Laurier; Marcotte, Diane; Diallo, Thierno; Potvin, Pierre; Royer, Egide

2013-01-01

This study tests an empirical multidimensional model of school dropout, using data collected in the first year of an 8-year longitudinal study, with first year high school students aged 12-13 years. Structural equation modeling analyses show that five personal, family, and school latent factors together contribute to school dropout identified at…

Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: agent-based versus structured metapopulation models.

PubMed

Ajelli, Marco; Gonçalves, Bruno; Balcan, Duygu; Colizza, Vittoria; Hu, Hao; Ramasco, José J; Merler, Stefano; Vespignani, Alessandro

2010-06-29

In recent years large-scale computational models for the realistic simulation of epidemic outbreaks have been used with increased frequency. Methodologies adapt to the scale of interest and range from very detailed agent-based models to spatially-structured metapopulation models. One major issue thus concerns to what extent the geotemporal spreading pattern found by different modeling approaches may differ and depend on the different approximations and assumptions used. We provide for the first time a side-by-side comparison of the results obtained with a stochastic agent-based model and a structured metapopulation stochastic model for the progression of a baseline pandemic event in Italy, a large and geographically heterogeneous European country. The agent-based model is based on the explicit representation of the Italian population through highly detailed data on the socio-demographic structure. The metapopulation simulations use the GLobal Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model, based on high-resolution census data worldwide, and integrating airline travel flow data with short-range human mobility patterns at the global scale. The model also considers age structure data for Italy. GLEaM and the agent-based models are synchronized in their initial conditions by using the same disease parameterization, and by defining the same importation of infected cases from international travels. The results obtained show that both models provide epidemic patterns that are in very good agreement at the granularity levels accessible by both approaches, with differences in peak timing on the order of a few days. The relative difference of the epidemic size depends on the basic reproductive ratio, R0, and on the fact that the metapopulation model consistently yields a larger incidence than the agent-based model, as expected due to the differences in the structure in the intra-population contact pattern of the approaches. The age breakdown analysis shows that similar attack rates are obtained for the younger age classes. The good agreement between the two modeling approaches is very important for defining the tradeoff between data availability and the information provided by the models. The results we present define the possibility of hybrid models combining the agent-based and the metapopulation approaches according to the available data and computational resources.

Learning-based prediction of gestational age from ultrasound images of the fetal brain.

PubMed

Namburete, Ana I L; Stebbing, Richard V; Kemp, Bryn; Yaqub, Mohammad; Papageorghiou, Aris T; Alison Noble, J

2015-04-01

We propose an automated framework for predicting gestational age (GA) and neurodevelopmental maturation of a fetus based on 3D ultrasound (US) brain image appearance. Our method capitalizes on age-related sonographic image patterns in conjunction with clinical measurements to develop, for the first time, a predictive age model which improves on the GA-prediction potential of US images. The framework benefits from a manifold surface representation of the fetal head which delineates the inner skull boundary and serves as a common coordinate system based on cranial position. This allows for fast and efficient sampling of anatomically-corresponding brain regions to achieve like-for-like structural comparison of different developmental stages. We develop bespoke features which capture neurosonographic patterns in 3D images, and using a regression forest classifier, we characterize structural brain development both spatially and temporally to capture the natural variation existing in a healthy population (N=447) over an age range of active brain maturation (18-34weeks). On a routine clinical dataset (N=187) our age prediction results strongly correlate with true GA (r=0.98,accurate within±6.10days), confirming the link between maturational progression and neurosonographic activity observable across gestation. Our model also outperforms current clinical methods by ±4.57 days in the third trimester-a period complicated by biological variations in the fetal population. Through feature selection, the model successfully identified the most age-discriminating anatomies over this age range as being the Sylvian fissure, cingulate, and callosal sulci. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changes in Age Structure and Rural Community Growth.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGranahan, David A.

1985-01-01

Whatever migration patterns evolve, changes in the age structure mean that rural communities in general can expect fairly stable elementary school population, reduced high school population, slower growth in new business and employment, and continued increase in the elderly population. (JHZ)

Inferring the Structure of Social Contacts from Demographic Data in the Analysis of Infectious Diseases Spread

PubMed Central

Fumanelli, Laura; Ajelli, Marco; Manfredi, Piero; Vespignani, Alessandro; Merler, Stefano

2012-01-01

Social contact patterns among individuals encode the transmission route of infectious diseases and are a key ingredient in the realistic characterization and modeling of epidemics. Unfortunately, the gathering of high quality experimental data on contact patterns in human populations is a very difficult task even at the coarse level of mixing patterns among age groups. Here we propose an alternative route to the estimation of mixing patterns that relies on the construction of virtual populations parametrized with highly detailed census and demographic data. We present the modeling of the population of 26 European countries and the generation of the corresponding synthetic contact matrices among the population age groups. The method is validated by a detailed comparison with the matrices obtained in six European countries by the most extensive survey study on mixing patterns. The methodology presented here allows a large scale comparison of mixing patterns in Europe, highlighting general common features as well as country-specific differences. We find clear relations between epidemiologically relevant quantities (reproduction number and attack rate) and socio-demographic characteristics of the populations, such as the average age of the population and the duration of primary school cycle. This study provides a numerical approach for the generation of human mixing patterns that can be used to improve the accuracy of mathematical models in the absence of specific experimental data. PMID:23028275

Structural modeling of age specific fertility curves in Peninsular Malaysia: An approach of Lee Carter method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanafiah, Hazlenah; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

2013-11-01

In recent years, the study of fertility has been getting a lot of attention among research abroad following fear of deterioration of fertility led by the rapid economy development. Hence, this study examines the feasibility of developing fertility forecasts based on age structure. Lee Carter model (1992) is applied in this study as it is an established and widely used model in analysing demographic aspects. A singular value decomposition approach is incorporated with an ARIMA model to estimate age specific fertility rates in Peninsular Malaysia over the period 1958-2007. Residual plots is used to measure the goodness of fit of the model. Fertility index forecast using random walk drift is then utilised to predict the future age specific fertility. Results indicate that the proposed model provides a relatively good and reasonable data fitting. In addition, there is an apparent and continuous decline in age specific fertility curves in the next 10 years, particularly among mothers' in their early 20's and 40's. The study on the fertility is vital in order to maintain a balance between the population growth and the provision of facilities related resources.

To stock or not to stock? Assessing restoration potential of a remnant American shad spawning run with hatchery supplementation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, Michael M.; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2013-01-01

Hatchery supplementation has been widely used as a restoration technique for American Shad Alosa sapidissima on the East Coast of the USA, but results have been equivocal. In the Penobscot River, Maine, dam removals and other improvements to fish passage will likely reestablish access to the majority of this species’ historic spawning habitat. Additional efforts being considered include the stocking of larval American Shad. The decision about whether to stock a river system undergoing restoration should be made after evaluating the probability of natural recolonization and examining the costs and benefits of potentially accelerating recovery using a stocking program. However, appropriate evaluation can be confounded by a dearth of information about the starting population size and age structure of the remnant American Shad spawning run in the river. We used the Penobscot River as a case study to assess the theoretical sensitivity of recovery time to either scenario (stocking or not) by building a deterministic model of an American Shad population. This model is based on the best available estimates of size at age, fecundity, rate of iteroparity, and recruitment. Density dependence was imposed, such that the population reached a plateau at an arbitrary recovery goal of 633,000 spawning adults. Stocking had a strong accelerating effect on the time to modeled recovery (as measured by the time to reach 50% of the recovery goal) in the base model, but stocking had diminishing effects with larger population sizes. There is a diminishing return to stocking when the starting population is modestly increased. With a low starting population (a spawning run of 1,000), supplementation with 12 million larvae annually accelerated modeled recovery by 12 years. Only a 2-year acceleration was observed if the starting population was 15,000. Such a heuristic model may aid managers in assessing the costs and benefits of stocking by incorporating a structured decision framework.

[Analysis and design structure of an aging society].

PubMed

Fujimasa, Iwao

2012-01-01

On observing present Japanese society, we can find deep gaps between the present system and its probable future. One of the gaps may be due to the misconception that future societal make up is not definite. The aim of the current study was to investigate a future societal structure and to develop methods of adding a timed dimension policy to the societal structure. This is named "A theory of structuralism economics". We developed 3 societal structure projection engines and applied a system of dynamics language to estimate the future total population of Japan. The Japan total population reached a maximum in 2005, and thereafter depopulation begun. The populations in the younger working age group (from 25 to 54 years old) and those in the elderly working age group (from 55 to 84 years old) became almost equal in 2010. As economic growth rate depends upon an increase in the working population, the increase in national income rate of Japan approached over 10% per year between 1950 to 1970. The increased working age population of the same period exceeded 2.5% annually. However, after 2005 depopulation began in Japan. In future, national income will decrease proportional to the working age population, but personal national income will hold almost unchanged. We propose a new strategy for future society structure. The working age should be extended by 10 years. Labor power will come to exceed 60% of the population and will thereafter become stable.

Inferring demographic structure with moccasin size data from the Promontory Caves, Utah.

PubMed

Billinger, Michael; Ives, John W

2015-01-01

The moccasin assemblage Julian Steward recovered from the Promontory caves in 1930-31 provides a novel example in which material culture can be used to understand the structure of an AD thirteenth century population. Several studies shed light on the relationship between shoe size, foot size, and stature. We develop an anthropometric model for understanding the composition of the Promontory Cave population by using moccasin size as a proxy for foot size. We then predict the stature of the individual who would have worn a moccasin. Stature is closely related to age for children, subadults and adult males. Although there are predictable sex and age factors biasing moccasin discard practices, moccasin dimensions suggest a relatively large proportion of children and subadults occupied the Promontory caves. This bison and antelope hunting population appears to have thrived during its stay on Promontory Point. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Spatiotemporal variation in survival rates: implications for population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Armitage, Kenneth B; Blumstein, Daniel T; Oli, Madan K

2006-04-01

Spatiotemporal variation in age-specific survival rates can profoundly influence population dynamics, but few studies of vertebrates have thoroughly investigated both spatial and temporal variability in age-specific survival rates. We used 28 years (1976-2003) of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data from 17 locations to parameterize an age-structured Cormack-Jolly-Seber model, and investigated spatial and temporal variation in age-specific annual survival rates of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris). Survival rates varied both spatially and temporally, with survival of younger animals exhibiting the highest degree of variation. Juvenile survival rates varied from 0.52 +/- 0.05 to 0.78 +/- 0.10 among sites and from 0.15 +/- 0.14 to 0.89 +/- 0.06 over time. Adult survival rates varied from 0.62 +/- 0.09 to 0.80 +/- 0.03 among sites, but did not vary significantly over time. We used reverse-time CMR models to estimate the realized population growth rate (lamda), and to investigate the influence of the observed variation in age-specific survival rates on lamda. The realized growth rate of the population closely covaried with, and was significantly influenced by, spatiotemporal variation in juvenile survival rate. High variability in juvenile survival rates over space and time clearly influenced the dynamics of our study population and is also likely to be an important determinant of the spatiotemporal variation in the population dynamics of other mammals with similar life history characteristics.

What causes childhood stunting among children of San Vicente, Guatemala: Employing complimentary, system-analysis approaches.

PubMed

Voth-Gaeddert, Lee E; Stoker, Matthew; Cornell, Devin; Oerther, Daniel B

2018-04-01

Guatemala has the sixth worst stunting rate with 48% of children under five years of age classified as stunted according to World Health Organization standards. This study utilizes two different yet complimentary system-analysis approaches to analyze correlations among environmental and demographic variables, environmental enteric dysfunction (EED), and child height-for-age (stunting metric) in Guatemala. Two descriptive models constructed around applicable environmental and demographic factors on child height-for-age and EED were analyzed using Network Analysis (NA) and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Data from two populations of children between the age of three months and five years were used. The first population (n = 2103) was drawn from the Food for Peace Baseline Survey conducted by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) in 2012, and the second population (n = 372) was drawn from an independent survey conducted by the San Vicente Health Center in 2016. The results from the NA of the height-for-age model confirmed pathogen exposure, nutrition, and prenatal health as important, and the results from the NA of the EED model confirmed water source, water treatment, and type of sanitation as important. The results from the SEM of the height-for-age model confirmed a statistically significant correlation among child height-for-age and child-mother interaction (-0.092, p = 0.076) while the SEM of the EED model confirmed the statistically significant correlation among EED and type of water treatment (-0.115, p = 0.013). Our approach supports important efforts to understand the complex set of factors associated with child stunting among communities sharing similarities with San Vicente. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Validation of a Latent Construct for Dementia in a Population-Wide Dataset from Singapore.

PubMed

Peh, Chao Xu; Abdin, Edimansyah; Vaingankar, Janhavi A; Verma, Swapna; Chua, Boon Yiang; Sagayadevan, Vathsala; Seow, Esmond; Zhang, YunJue; Shahwan, Shazana; Ng, Li Ling; Prince, Martin; Chong, Siow Ann; Subramaniam, Mythily

2017-01-01

The latent variable δ has been proposed as a proxy for dementia. Previous validation studies have been conducted using convenience samples. It is currently unknown how δ performs in population-wide data. To validate δ in Singapore using population-wide epidemiological study data on persons aged 60 and above. δ was constructed using items from the Community Screening Instrument for Dementia (CSI'D) and World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS II). Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was conducted to examine δ model fit. Convergent validity was examined with the Clinical Dementia Rating scale (CDR) and GMS-AGECAT dementia. Divergent validity was examined with GMS-AGECAT depression. The δ model demonstrated fit to the data, χ2(df) = 249.71(55), p < 0.001, CFI = 0.990, TLI = 0.997, RMSEA = 0.037. Latent variable δ was significantly associated with CDR and GMS-AGECAT dementia (range: β= 0.32 to 0.63), and was not associated with GMS-AGECAT depression. Compared to unadjusted models, δ model fit was poor when adjusted for age, gender, ethnicity, and education. The study found some support for δ as a proxy for dementia in Singapore based on population data. Both convergent and divergent validity were established. In addition, the δ model structure appeared to be influenced by age, gender, ethnicity, and education covariates.

Age structure and age-related performance of sulfur cinquefoil (Potentilla recta).

Treesearch

Dana L. Perkins; Catherine G. Parks; Kathleen A. Dwire; Bryan A. Endress; Kelsi L. Johnson

2006-01-01

Age distributions of sulfur cinquefoil populations were determined on sites that were historically grazed, cultivated, and mechanically disturbed. From 12 sites, a total of 279 reproductively active plants were collected and aged by using herbchronology (counting rings in the secondary root xylem of the root crown) to (1) estimate the age structure of the populations...

Stand structure and dynamics of sand pine differ between the Florida panhandle and peninsula

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drewa, P.B.; Platt, W.J.; Kwit, C.; Doyle, T.W.

2008-01-01

Size and age structures of stand populations of numerous tree species exhibit uneven or reverse J-distributions that can persist after non-catastrophic disturbance, especially windstorms. Among disjunct populations of conspecific trees, alternative distributions are also possible and may be attributed to more localized variation in disturbance. Regional differences in structure and demography among disjunct populations of sand pine (Pinus clausa (Chapm. ex Engelm.) Vasey ex Sarg.) in the Florida panhandle and peninsula may result from variation in hurricane regimes associated with each of these populations. We measured size, age, and growth rates of trees from panhandle and peninsula populations and then compiled size and age class distributions. We also characterized hurricanes in both regions over the past century. Size and age structures of panhandle populations were unevenly distributed and exhibited continuous recruitment; peninsula populations were evenly sized and aged and exhibited only periodic recruitment. Since hurricane regimes were similar between regions, historical fire regimes may have been responsible for regional differences in structure of sand pine populations. We hypothesize that fires were locally nonexistent in coastal panhandle populations, while periodic high intensity fires occurred in peninsula populations over the past century. Such differences in local fire regimes could have resulted in the absence of hurricane effects in the peninsula. Increased intensity of hurricanes in the panhandle and current fire suppression patterns in the peninsula may shift characteristics of sand pine stands in both regions. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Simulation modeling of population viability for the leopard darter (Percidae: Percina pantherina)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, L.R.; Echelle, A.A.; Toepfer, C.S.; Williams, M.G.; Fisher, W.L.

1999-01-01

We used the computer program RAMAS to perform a population viability analysis for the leopard darter, Percina pantherina. This percid fish is a threatened species confined to five isolated rivers in the Ouachita Mountains of Oklahoma and Arkansas. A base model created from life history data indicated a 6% probability that the leopard darter would go extinct in 50 years. We performed sensitivity analyses to determine the effects of initial population size, variation in age structure, variation in severity and probability of catastrophe, and migration rate. Catastrophe (modeled as the probability and severity of drought) and migration had the greatest effects on persistence. Results of these simulations have implications for management of this species.

Differentiation of Cognitive Abilities across the Lifespan

PubMed Central

Tucker-Drob, Elliot M.

2009-01-01

Existing representations of cognitive ability structure are exclusively based on linear patterns of interrelations. However, a number of developmental and cognitive theories predict that abilities are differentially related across ages (age differentiation-dedifferentiation) and across levels of functioning (ability differentiation). Nonlinear factor analytic models were applied to multivariate cognitive ability data from 6,273 individuals, ages 4 to 101 years, who were selected to be nationally representative of the United States population. Results consistently supported ability differentiation, but were less clear with respect to age differentiation-dedifferentiation. Little evidence for age modification of ability differentiation was found. These findings are particularly informative about the nature of individual differences in cognition, and the developmental course of cognitive ability level and structure. PMID:19586182

Structured models of infectious disease: inference with discrete data

PubMed Central

Metcalf, C.J.E.; Lessler, J.; Klepac, P.; Morice, A.; Grenfell, B.T.; Bjørnstad, O.N.

2014-01-01

The usage of structured population models can make substantial contributions to public health, particularly for infections where clinical outcomes vary over age. There are three theoretical challenges in implementing such analyses: i) developing an appropriate framework that models both demographic and epidemiological transitions; ii) parameterizing the framework, where parameters may be based on data ranging from the biological course of infection, basic patterns of human demography, specific characteristics of population growth, and details of vaccination regimes implemented; and iii) evaluating public health strategies in the face of changing human demography. We illustrate the general approach by developing a model of rubella in Costa Rica. The demographic profile of this infection is a crucial aspect of its public health impact, and we use a transient perturbation analysis to explore the impact of changing human demography on immunization strategies implemented. PMID:22178687

Renal Aging: Causes and Consequences

PubMed Central

Hughes, Jeremy; Ferenbach, David A.

2017-01-01

Individuals age >65 years old are the fastest expanding population demographic throughout the developed world. Consequently, more aged patients than before are receiving diagnoses of impaired renal function and nephrosclerosis—age–associated histologic changes in the kidneys. Recent studies have shown that the aged kidney undergoes a range of structural changes and has altered transcriptomic, hemodynamic, and physiologic behavior at rest and in response to renal insults. These changes impair the ability of the kidney to withstand and recover from injury, contributing to the high susceptibility of the aged population to AKI and their increased propensity to develop subsequent progressive CKD. In this review, we examine these features of the aged kidney and explore the various validated and putative pathways contributing to the changes observed with aging in both experimental animal models and humans. We also discuss the potential for additional study to increase understanding of the aged kidney and lead to novel therapeutic strategies. PMID:28143966

Ageing increases reliance on sensorimotor prediction through structural and functional differences in frontostriatal circuits

PubMed Central

Wolpe, Noham; Ingram, James N.; Tsvetanov, Kamen A.; Geerligs, Linda; Kievit, Rogier A.; Henson, Richard N.; Wolpert, Daniel M.; Tyler, Lorraine K.; Brayne, Carol; Bullmore, Edward; Calder, Andrew; Cusack, Rhodri; Dalgleish, Tim; Duncan, John; Matthews, Fiona E.; Marslen-Wilson, William; Shafto, Meredith A.; Campbell, Karen; Cheung, Teresa; Davis, Simon; McCarrey, Anna; Mustafa, Abdur; Price, Darren; Samu, David; Taylor, Jason R.; Treder, Matthias; van Belle, Janna; Williams, Nitin; Bates, Lauren; Emery, Tina; Erzinçlioglu, Sharon; Gadie, Andrew; Gerbase, Sofia; Georgieva, Stanimira; Hanley, Claire; Parkin, Beth; Troy, David; Auer, Tibor; Correia, Marta; Gao, Lu; Green, Emma; Henriques, Rafael; Allen, Jodie; Amery, Gillian; Amunts, Liana; Barcroft, Anne; Castle, Amanda; Dias, Cheryl; Dowrick, Jonathan; Fair, Melissa; Fisher, Hayley; Goulding, Anna; Grewal, Adarsh; Hale, Geoff; Hilton, Andrew; Johnson, Frances; Johnston, Patricia; Kavanagh-Williamson, Thea; Kwasniewska, Magdalena; McMinn, Alison; Norman, Kim; Penrose, Jessica; Roby, Fiona; Rowland, Diane; Sargeant, John; Squire, Maggie; Stevens, Beth; Stoddart, Aldabra; Stone, Cheryl; Thompson, Tracy; Yazlik, Ozlem; Barnes, Dan; Dixon, Marie; Hillman, Jaya; Mitchell, Joanne; Villis, Laura; Rowe, James B.

2016-01-01

The control of voluntary movement changes markedly with age. A critical component of motor control is the integration of sensory information with predictions of the consequences of action, arising from internal models of movement. This leads to sensorimotor attenuation—a reduction in the perceived intensity of sensations from self-generated compared with external actions. Here we show that sensorimotor attenuation occurs in 98% of adults in a population-based cohort (n=325; 18–88 years; the Cambridge Centre for Ageing and Neuroscience). Importantly, attenuation increases with age, in proportion to reduced sensory sensitivity. This effect is associated with differences in the structure and functional connectivity of the pre-supplementary motor area (pre-SMA), assessed with magnetic resonance imaging. The results suggest that ageing alters the balance between the sensorium and predictive models, mediated by the pre-SMA and its connectivity in frontostriatal circuits. This shift may contribute to the motor and cognitive changes observed with age. PMID:27694879

Ageing increases reliance on sensorimotor prediction through structural and functional differences in frontostriatal circuits.

PubMed

Wolpe, Noham; Ingram, James N; Tsvetanov, Kamen A; Geerligs, Linda; Kievit, Rogier A; Henson, Richard N; Wolpert, Daniel M; Rowe, James B

2016-10-03

The control of voluntary movement changes markedly with age. A critical component of motor control is the integration of sensory information with predictions of the consequences of action, arising from internal models of movement. This leads to sensorimotor attenuation-a reduction in the perceived intensity of sensations from self-generated compared with external actions. Here we show that sensorimotor attenuation occurs in 98% of adults in a population-based cohort (n=325; 18-88 years; the Cambridge Centre for Ageing and Neuroscience). Importantly, attenuation increases with age, in proportion to reduced sensory sensitivity. This effect is associated with differences in the structure and functional connectivity of the pre-supplementary motor area (pre-SMA), assessed with magnetic resonance imaging. The results suggest that ageing alters the balance between the sensorium and predictive models, mediated by the pre-SMA and its connectivity in frontostriatal circuits. This shift may contribute to the motor and cognitive changes observed with age.

Canada goose nest survival at rural wetlands in north-central Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ness, Brenna N.; Klaver, Robert W.

2016-01-01

The last comprehensive nest survival study of the breeding giant Canada goose (Branta canadensis maxima) population in Iowa, USA, was conducted >30 years ago during a period of population recovery, during which available nesting habitat consisted primarily of artificial nest structures. Currently, Iowa's resident goose population is stable and nests in a variety of habitats. We analyzed the effects of available habitat on nest survival and how nest survival rates compared with those of the expanding goose population studied previously to better understand how to maintain a sustainable Canada goose population in Iowa. We documented Canada goose nest survival at rural wetland sites in north-central Iowa. We monitored 121 nests in 2013 and 149 nests in 2014 at 5 Wildlife Management Areas (WMAs) with various nesting habitats, including islands, muskrat (Ondatra zibethicus) houses, and elevated nest structures. We estimated daily nest-survival rate using the nest survival model in Program MARK. Survival was influenced by year, site, stage, presence of a camera, nest age, and an interaction between nest age and stage. Nest success rates for the 28-day incubation period by site and year combination ranged from 0.10 to 0.84. Nest survival was greatest at sites with nest structures (β = 17.34). Nest survival was negatively affected by lowered water levels at Rice Lake WMA (2013 β = −0.77, nest age β = −0.07). Timing of water-level drawdowns for shallow lake restorations may influence nest survival rates.

[Age structure and genetic diversity of Homatula pycnolepis in the Nujiang River basin].

PubMed

Yue, Xing-Jian; Liu, Shao-Ping; Liu, Ming-Dian; Duan, Xin-Bin; Wang, Deng-Qiang; Chen, Da-Qing

2013-08-01

This study examined the age structure of the Loach, Homatula pycnolepis through the otolith growth rings in 204 individual specimens collected from the Xiaomengtong River of the Nujiang River (Salween River) basin in April, 2008. There were only two different age classes, 1 and 2 years of age-no 3 year olds were detected. The age structure of H. pycnolepis was simple. The complete mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b gene sequences (1140) of 80 individuals from 4 populations collected in the Nujiang River drainage were sequenced and a total of 44 variable sites were found among 4 different haplotypes. The global haplotype diversity (Hd) and nucleotide diversity (Pi) were calculated at 0.7595, 0.0151 respectively, and 0, 0 in each population, indicating a consistent lack of genetic diversity in each small population. There was obvious geographic structure in both the Nujiang River basin (NJB) group, and the Nanding River (NDR) group. The genetic distance between NJB and NDR was calculated at 0.0356, suggesting that genetic divergence resulted from long-term isolation of individual population. Such a simple age structure and a lack of genetic diversity in H. pycnolepis may potentially be due to small populations and locale fishing pressures. Accordingly, the results of this study prompt us to recommend that the NJB, NDR and Lancang River populations should be protected as three different evolutionary significant units or separated management units.

Spatial Pattern and Population Structure of Artemisia ordosica Shrub in a Desert Grassland under Enclosure, Northwest China.

PubMed

Liu, Jiankang; Zhang, Kebin

2018-05-09

Enclosure is an effective practice for restoring and rehabilitating the degraded grassland ecosystem caused by overgrazing. Shrub species, which are dominant in most desert grasslands in arid and semiarid regions, have some beneficial ecological functions for grassland restoration. However, how the population structure and spatial pattern of the Artemisia ordosica shrub changes in a grassland ecosystem under enclosed practice is not well understood. This study, conducted in the Mu Us desert in northwest China, was designed to measure the A. ordosica population according to the chronosequence of enclosure (enclosure periods ranged from 5 years, 10 years, 15 years, and 25 years), contrasting this with an adjacent continuously grazed grassland. The results showed that the enclosed grasslands had a higher number of individuals of different age classes (seedling, adult, aging, and dead group) and greater population coverage, but shrubs had significant lower ( p < 0.05) crown diameter and height in comparison with those in continuously grazed grassland. Further, enclosed grasslands had a significantly higher ( p < 0.05) Shannon-Wiener index (H) and Evenness index (E), but a significantly lower ( p < 0.05) Richness index (R) than continuously grazed grassland. The crown of A. ordosica showed a significant linear positive correlation with height in all plots across succession, indicating that it was feasible to analyze the age structure by crown. The crown-class distribution structure of the A. ordosica population approximated a Gaussian distribution model in all survey plots. Within the population, seedling and adult groups exhibited aggregated spatial distribution at small scales, while aging and dead A. ordosica groups showed random distribution at almost all scales in different plots. The seedling A. ordosica group showed a positive correlation with adults at small scales in all plots except in 10 years of enclosure. However, it showed independent correlation with aging and dead groups at almost all scales. In long-term enclosed plots, the mortality rate of the A. ordosica population increased, therefore assistance management practices, such as fertilization, mowing, interval grazing, and seasonal grazing, must be employed to maintain population stability after long-term enclosure. This study can improve understanding and clarify the effects of enclosures in the desert grasslands of northwest China.

Making sense of snapshot data: ergodic principle for clonal cell populations

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Population growth is often ignored when quantifying gene expression levels across clonal cell populations. We develop a framework for obtaining the molecule number distributions in an exponentially growing cell population taking into account its age structure. In the presence of generation time variability, the average acquired across a population snapshot does not obey the average of a dividing cell over time, apparently contradicting ergodicity between single cells and the population. Instead, we show that the variation observed across snapshots with known cell age is captured by cell histories, a single-cell measure obtained from tracking an arbitrary cell of the population back to the ancestor from which it originated. The correspondence between cells of known age in a population with their histories represents an ergodic principle that provides a new interpretation of population snapshot data. We illustrate the principle using analytical solutions of stochastic gene expression models in cell populations with arbitrary generation time distributions. We further elucidate that the principle breaks down for biochemical reactions that are under selection, such as the expression of genes conveying antibiotic resistance, which gives rise to an experimental criterion with which to probe selection on gene expression fluctuations. PMID:29187636

Making sense of snapshot data: ergodic principle for clonal cell populations.

PubMed

Thomas, Philipp

2017-11-01

Population growth is often ignored when quantifying gene expression levels across clonal cell populations. We develop a framework for obtaining the molecule number distributions in an exponentially growing cell population taking into account its age structure. In the presence of generation time variability, the average acquired across a population snapshot does not obey the average of a dividing cell over time, apparently contradicting ergodicity between single cells and the population. Instead, we show that the variation observed across snapshots with known cell age is captured by cell histories, a single-cell measure obtained from tracking an arbitrary cell of the population back to the ancestor from which it originated. The correspondence between cells of known age in a population with their histories represents an ergodic principle that provides a new interpretation of population snapshot data. We illustrate the principle using analytical solutions of stochastic gene expression models in cell populations with arbitrary generation time distributions. We further elucidate that the principle breaks down for biochemical reactions that are under selection, such as the expression of genes conveying antibiotic resistance, which gives rise to an experimental criterion with which to probe selection on gene expression fluctuations. © 2017 The Author(s).

Population inertia and its sensitivity to changes in vital rates and population structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koons, David N.; Holmes, Randall R.; Grand, James B.

2007-01-01

Because the (st)age structure of a population may rarely be stable, studies of transient population dynamics and population momentum are becoming ever more popular. Yet, studies of "population momentum" are restricted in the sense that they describe the inertia of population size resulting from a demographic transition to the stationary population growth rate. Although rarely mentioned, inertia in population size is a general phenomenon and can be produced by any demographic transition or perturbation. Because population size is of central importance in demography, conservation, and management, formulas relating the sensitivity of population inertia to changes in underlying vital rates and population structure could provide much-needed insight into the dynamics of populations with unstable (st)age structure. Here, we derive such formulas, which are readily computable, and provide examples of their potential use in studies of life history and applied arenas of population study. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

The age structure of selected countries in the ESCAP region.

PubMed

Hong, S

1982-01-01

The study objective was to examine the age structure of selected countries in the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) region, using available data and frequently applied indices such as the population pyramid, aged-child ratio, and median age. Based on the overall picture of the age structure thus obtained, age trends and their implication for the near future were arrived at. Countries are grouped into 4 types based on the fertility and mortality levels. Except for Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, the age structure in the 18 ESCAP region countries changed comparatively little over the 1950-80 period. The largest structural change occurred in Singapore, where the proportion of children under age 15 in the population declined significantly from 41-27%, while that of persons 65 years and older more than doubled. This was due primarily to the marked decline in fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 6.7-1.8 during the period. Hong Kong also had a similar major transformation during the same period: the proportion of the old age population increased 2 1/2 times, from 2.5-6.3%. The age structures of the 18 ESCAP countries varied greatly by country. 10 countries of the 2 high fertility and mortality types showed a similar young age structural pattern, i.e., they have higher dependency ratios, a higher proportion of children under 15 years, a lower proportion of population 65 years and older, lower aged-child ratios, and younger median ages than the average countries in the less developed regions of the world. With minimal changes over the 1950-80 period, the gap between these countries and the average of the less developed regions widened. Unlike these 10 (mostly South Asian) countries, moderately low fertility and mortality countries (China, Korea, and Sri Lanka) are located between the world average and the less developed region in most of the indices, particularly during the last decade. Although their rate of population aging is not rapid, they are moving toward it. 5 countries of the low fertility and mortality group basically showed an age structure in between the world average and that of the more developed region. Notable exceptions were Singapore and Hong Kong, which showed younger age structures than the less developed regions in terms of dependency ratios during 1950-60. On an average, the majority of ESCAP countries still have a young population.

Chaotic attractors and physical measures for some density dependent Leslie population models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ugarcovici, Ilie; Weiss, Howard

2007-12-01

Following ecologists' discoveries, mathematicians have begun studying extensions of the ubiquitous age structured Leslie population model that allow some survival probabilities and/or fertility rates to depend on population densities. These nonlinear extensions commonly exhibit very complicated dynamics: through computer studies, some authors have discovered robust Hénon-like strange attractors in several families. Population biologists and demographers frequently wish to average a function over many generations and conclude that the average is independent of the initial population distribution. This type of 'ergodicity' seems to be a fundamental tenet in population biology. In this paper we develop the first rigorous ergodic theoretic framework for density dependent Leslie population models. We study two generation models with Ricker and Hassell (recruitment type) fertility terms. We prove that for some parameter regions these models admit a chaotic (ergodic) attractor which supports a unique physical probability measure. This physical measure, having full Lebesgue measure basin, satisfies in the strongest possible sense the population biologist's requirement for ergodicity in their population models. We use the celebrated work of Wang and Young 2001 Commun. Math. Phys. 218 1-97, and our results are the first applications of their method to biology, ecology or demography.

Effective Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue for a correlated random map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pool, Roman R.; Cáceres, Manuel O.

2010-09-01

We investigate the evolution of random positive linear maps with various type of disorder by analytic perturbation and direct simulation. Our theoretical result indicates that the statistics of a random linear map can be successfully described for long time by the mean-value vector state. The growth rate can be characterized by an effective Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue that strongly depends on the type of correlation between the elements of the projection matrix. We apply this approach to an age-structured population dynamics model. We show that the asymptotic mean-value vector state characterizes the population growth rate when the age-structured model has random vital parameters. In this case our approach reveals the nontrivial dependence of the effective growth rate with cross correlations. The problem was reduced to the calculation of the smallest positive root of a secular polynomial, which can be obtained by perturbations in terms of Green’s function diagrammatic technique built with noncommutative cumulants for arbitrary n -point correlations.

Impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill evaluated using an end-to-end ecosystem model.

PubMed

Ainsworth, Cameron H; Paris, Claire B; Perlin, Natalie; Dornberger, Lindsey N; Patterson, William F; Chancellor, Emily; Murawski, Steve; Hollander, David; Daly, Kendra; Romero, Isabel C; Coleman, Felicia; Perryman, Holly

2018-01-01

We use a spatially explicit biogeochemical end-to-end ecosystem model, Atlantis, to simulate impacts from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and subsequent recovery of fish guilds. Dose-response relationships with expected oil concentrations were utilized to estimate the impact on fish growth and mortality rates. We also examine the effects of fisheries closures and impacts on recruitment. We validate predictions of the model by comparing population trends and age structure before and after the oil spill with fisheries independent data. The model suggests that recruitment effects and fishery closures had little influence on biomass dynamics. However, at the assumed level of oil concentrations and toxicity, impacts on fish mortality and growth rates were large and commensurate with observations. Sensitivity analysis suggests the biomass of large reef fish decreased by 25% to 50% in areas most affected by the spill, and biomass of large demersal fish decreased even more, by 40% to 70%. Impacts on reef and demersal forage caused starvation mortality in predators and increased reliance on pelagic forage. Impacts on the food web translated effects of the spill far away from the oiled area. Effects on age structure suggest possible delayed impacts on fishery yields. Recovery of high-turnover populations generally is predicted to occur within 10 years, but some slower-growing populations may take 30+ years to fully recover.

Impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill evaluated using an end-to-end ecosystem model

PubMed Central

Paris, Claire B.; Perlin, Natalie; Dornberger, Lindsey N.; Patterson, William F.; Chancellor, Emily; Murawski, Steve; Hollander, David; Daly, Kendra; Romero, Isabel C.; Coleman, Felicia; Perryman, Holly

2018-01-01

We use a spatially explicit biogeochemical end-to-end ecosystem model, Atlantis, to simulate impacts from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and subsequent recovery of fish guilds. Dose-response relationships with expected oil concentrations were utilized to estimate the impact on fish growth and mortality rates. We also examine the effects of fisheries closures and impacts on recruitment. We validate predictions of the model by comparing population trends and age structure before and after the oil spill with fisheries independent data. The model suggests that recruitment effects and fishery closures had little influence on biomass dynamics. However, at the assumed level of oil concentrations and toxicity, impacts on fish mortality and growth rates were large and commensurate with observations. Sensitivity analysis suggests the biomass of large reef fish decreased by 25% to 50% in areas most affected by the spill, and biomass of large demersal fish decreased even more, by 40% to 70%. Impacts on reef and demersal forage caused starvation mortality in predators and increased reliance on pelagic forage. Impacts on the food web translated effects of the spill far away from the oiled area. Effects on age structure suggest possible delayed impacts on fishery yields. Recovery of high-turnover populations generally is predicted to occur within 10 years, but some slower-growing populations may take 30+ years to fully recover. PMID:29370187

Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population.

PubMed

Chan, Kung-Sik; Mysterud, Atle; Øritsland, Nils Are; Severinsen, Torbjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2005-10-01

Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event ("locked pastures") with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) "event" process. The introduction of an "event" parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events.

Demographic analysis from summaries of an age-structured population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hatfield, Jeff S.

2003-01-01

Demographic analyses of age-structured populations typically rely on life history data for individuals, or when individual animals are not identified, on information about the numbers of individuals in each age class through time. While it is usually difficult to determine the age class of a randomly encountered individual, it is often the case that the individual can be readily and reliably assigned to one of a set of age classes. For example, it is often possible to distinguish first-year from older birds. In such cases, the population age structure can be regarded as a latent variable governed by a process prior, and the data as summaries of this latent structure. In this article, we consider the problem of uncovering the latent structure and estimating process parameters from summaries of age class information. We present a demographic analysis for the critically endangered migratory population of whooping cranes (Grus americana), based only on counts of first-year birds and of older birds. We estimate age and year-specific survival rates. We address the controversial issue of whether management action on the breeding grounds has influenced recruitment, relating recruitment rates to the number of seventh-year and older birds, and examining the pattern of variation through time in this rate.

Impact of biology knowledge on the conservation and management of large pelagic sharks.

PubMed

Yokoi, Hiroki; Ijima, Hirotaka; Ohshimo, Seiji; Yokawa, Kotaro

2017-09-06

Population growth rate, which depends on several biological parameters, is valuable information for the conservation and management of pelagic sharks, such as blue and shortfin mako sharks. However, reported biological parameters for estimating the population growth rates of these sharks differ by sex and display large variability. To estimate the appropriate population growth rate and clarify relationships between growth rate and relevant biological parameters, we developed a two-sex age-structured matrix population model and estimated the population growth rate using combinations of biological parameters. We addressed elasticity analysis and clarified the population growth rate sensitivity. For the blue shark, the estimated median population growth rate was 0.384 with a range of minimum and maximum values of 0.195-0.533, whereas those values of the shortfin mako shark were 0.102 and 0.007-0.318, respectively. The maturity age of male sharks had the largest impact for blue sharks, whereas that of female sharks had the largest impact for shortfin mako sharks. Hypotheses for the survival process of sharks also had a large impact on the population growth rate estimation. Both shark maturity age and survival rate were based on ageing validation data, indicating the importance of validating the quality of these data for the conservation and management of large pelagic sharks.

Did the ever dead outnumber the living and when? A birth-and-death approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avan, Jean; Grosjean, Nicolas; Huillet, Thierry

2015-02-01

This paper is an attempt to formalize analytically the question raised in 'World Population Explained: Do Dead People Outnumber Living, Or Vice Versa?' Huffington Post, Howard (2012). We start developing simple deterministic Malthusian growth models of the problem (with birth and death rates either constant or time-dependent) before running into both linear birth and death Markov chain models and age-structured models.

Factorial structure of the 'ToM Storybooks': A test evaluating multiple components of Theory of Mind.

PubMed

Bulgarelli, Daniela; Testa, Silvia; Molina, Paola

2015-06-01

This study examined the factorial structure of the Theory of Mind (ToM) Storybooks, a comprehensive 93-item instrument tapping the five components in Wellman's model of ToM (emotion recognition, understanding of desire and beliefs, ability to distinguish between physical and mental entities, and awareness of the link between perception and knowledge). A sample of 681 three- to eight-year-old Italian children was divided into three age groups to assess whether factorial structure varied across different age ranges. Partial credit model analysis was applied to the data, leading to the empirical identification of 23 composite variables aggregating the ToM Storybooks items. Confirmatory factor analysis was then conducted on the composite variables, providing support for the theoretical model. There were partial differences in the specific composite variables making up the dimensions for each of the three age groups. A single test evaluating distinct dimensions of ToM is a valuable resource for clinical practice which may be used to define differential profiles for specific populations. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

Consequences of cannibalism and competition for food in a smallmouth bass population: An individual-based modeling study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dong, Q.; DeAngelis, D.L.

1998-01-01

We used an individual-based modeling approach to study the consequences of cannibalism and competition for food in a freshwater fish population. We simulated the daily foraging, growth, and survival of the age-0 fish and older juvenile individuals of a sample population to reconstruct patterns of density dependence in the age-0 fish during the growth season. Cannibalism occurs as a part of the foraging process. For age-0 fish, older juvenile fish are both potential cannibals and competitors of food. We found that competition and cannibalism produced intraclass and interclass density dependence. Our modeling results suggested the following. (1) With low density of juvenile fish and weak interclass interactions, the age-0 fish recruitment shows a Beverton-Holt type of density dependence. (2) With high density of juvenile fish and strong interclass interactions, the age-0 fish recruitment shows a Ricker type of density dependence, and overcompensation occurs. (3) Interclass competition of food is responsible for much of the overcompensation. (4) Cannibalism intensifies the changes in the recruitment that are brought about by competition. Cannibalism can (a) generally reduce the recruitment, (b) particularly reduce the maximum level of recruitment, (c) cause overcompensation to occur at lower densities, and (d) produce a stronger overcompensation. (5) Growth is also a function of density. Cannibalism generally improves average growth of cannibals. (6) Variation in the lengths of age-0 fish increases with density and with a decreased average growth. These results imply that cannibalism and competition for food could strongly affect recruitment dynamics. Our model also showed that the rate of cannibalism either could be fairly even through the whole season or could vary dramatically. The individual-based modeling approach can help ecologists understand the mechanistic connection between daily behavioral and physiological processes operating at the level of individual organisms and seasonal patterns of population structure and dynamics. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 1998.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gyory, Zsuzsanna; Bell, Eric F., E-mail: gyory.zsuzsa@googlemail.co, E-mail: ericbell@umich.ed

One of the key predictions of the merger hypothesis for the origin of early-type (elliptical and lenticular) galaxies is that tidally induced asymmetric structure should correlate with signatures of a relatively young stellar population. Such a signature was found by Schweizer and Seitzer at roughly 4{sigma} confidence. In this paper, we revisit this issue with a nearly ten-fold larger sample of 0.01 < z < 0.03 galaxies selected from the Two Micron All-Sky Survey and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We parameterize tidal structure using a repeatable algorithmic measure of asymmetry, and correlate this with color offset from the early-typemore » galaxy color-magnitude relation. We recover the color offset-asymmetry correlation; furthermore, we demonstrate observationally for the first time that this effect is driven by a highly significant trend toward younger ages at higher asymmetry values. We present a simple model for the evolution of early-type galaxies through gas-rich major and minor mergers that reproduces their observed buildup from z = 1 to the present day and the distribution of present-day colors and ages. We show using this model that if both stellar populations and asymmetry were ideal 'clocks' measuring the time since last major or minor gas-rich interaction, then we would expect a rather tight correlation between age and asymmetry. We suggest that the source of extra scatter is natural diversity in progenitor star formation history, gas content, and merger mass ratio, but quantitative confirmation of this conjecture will require sophisticated modeling. We conclude that the asymmetry-age correlation is in basic accord with the merger hypothesis, and indicates that an important fraction of the early-type galaxy population is affected by major or minor mergers at cosmologically recent times.« less

THE SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF MONO-ABUNDANCE SUB-POPULATIONS OF THE MILKY WAY DISK

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bovy, Jo; Rix, Hans-Walter; Liu Chao

2012-07-10

The spatial, kinematic, and elemental-abundance structure of the Milky Way's stellar disk is complex, and has been difficult to dissect with local spectroscopic or global photometric data. Here, we develop and apply a rigorous density modeling approach for Galactic spectroscopic surveys that enables investigation of the global spatial structure of stellar sub-populations in narrow bins of [{alpha}/Fe] and [Fe/H], using 23,767 G-type dwarfs from SDSS/SEGUE, which effectively sample 5 kpc < R{sub GC} < 12 kpc and 0.3 kpc {approx}< |Z| {approx}< 3 kpc. We fit models for the number density of each such ([{alpha}/Fe] and [Fe/H]) mono-abundance component, properlymore » accounting for the complex spectroscopic SEGUE sampling of the underlying stellar population, as well as for the metallicity and color distributions of the samples. We find that each mono-abundance sub-population has a simple spatial structure that can be described by a single exponential in both the vertical and radial directions, with continuously increasing scale heights ( Almost-Equal-To 200 pc to 1 kpc) and decreasing scale lengths (>4.5 kpc to 2 kpc) for increasingly older sub-populations, as indicated by their lower metallicities and [{alpha}/Fe] enhancements. That the abundance-selected sub-components with the largest scale heights have the shortest scale lengths is in sharp contrast with purely geometric 'thick-thin disk' decompositions. To the extent that [{alpha}/Fe] is an adequate proxy for age, our results directly show that older disk sub-populations are more centrally concentrated, which implies inside-out formation of galactic disks. The fact that the largest scale-height sub-components are most centrally concentrated in the Milky Way is an almost inevitable consequence of explaining the vertical structure of the disk through internal evolution. Whether the simple spatial structure of the mono-abundance sub-components and the striking correlations between age, scale length, and scale height can be plausibly explained by satellite accretion or other external heating remains to be seen.« less

Comparative effectiveness of different strategies of oral cholera vaccination in bangladesh: a modeling study.

PubMed

Dimitrov, Dobromir T; Troeger, Christopher; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M; Chao, Dennis L

2014-12-01

Killed, oral cholera vaccines have proven safe and effective, and several large-scale mass cholera vaccination efforts have demonstrated the feasibility of widespread deployment. This study uses a mathematical model of cholera transmission in Bangladesh to examine the effectiveness of potential vaccination strategies. We developed an age-structured mathematical model of cholera transmission and calibrated it to reproduce the dynamics of cholera in Matlab, Bangladesh. We used the model to predict the effectiveness of different cholera vaccination strategies over a period of 20 years. We explored vaccination programs that targeted one of three increasingly focused age groups (the entire vaccine-eligible population of age one year and older, children of ages 1 to 14 years, or preschoolers of ages 1 to 4 years) and that could occur either as campaigns recurring every five years or as continuous ongoing vaccination efforts. Our modeling results suggest that vaccinating 70% of the population would avert 90% of cholera cases in the first year but that campaign and continuous vaccination strategies differ in effectiveness over 20 years. Maintaining 70% coverage of the population would be sufficient to prevent sustained transmission of endemic cholera in Matlab, while vaccinating periodically every five years is less effective. Selectively vaccinating children 1-14 years old would prevent the most cholera cases per vaccine administered in both campaign and continuous strategies. We conclude that continuous mass vaccination would be more effective against endemic cholera than periodic campaigns. Vaccinating children averts more cases per dose than vaccinating all age groups, although vaccinating only children is unlikely to control endemic cholera in Bangladesh. Careful consideration must be made before generalizing these results to other regions.

Comparative Effectiveness of Different Strategies of Oral Cholera Vaccination in Bangladesh: A Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Dimitrov, Dobromir T.; Troeger, Christopher; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M.; Chao, Dennis L.

2014-01-01

Background Killed, oral cholera vaccines have proven safe and effective, and several large-scale mass cholera vaccination efforts have demonstrated the feasibility of widespread deployment. This study uses a mathematical model of cholera transmission in Bangladesh to examine the effectiveness of potential vaccination strategies. Methods & Findings We developed an age-structured mathematical model of cholera transmission and calibrated it to reproduce the dynamics of cholera in Matlab, Bangladesh. We used the model to predict the effectiveness of different cholera vaccination strategies over a period of 20 years. We explored vaccination programs that targeted one of three increasingly focused age groups (the entire vaccine-eligible population of age one year and older, children of ages 1 to 14 years, or preschoolers of ages 1 to 4 years) and that could occur either as campaigns recurring every five years or as continuous ongoing vaccination efforts. Our modeling results suggest that vaccinating 70% of the population would avert 90% of cholera cases in the first year but that campaign and continuous vaccination strategies differ in effectiveness over 20 years. Maintaining 70% coverage of the population would be sufficient to prevent sustained transmission of endemic cholera in Matlab, while vaccinating periodically every five years is less effective. Selectively vaccinating children 1–14 years old would prevent the most cholera cases per vaccine administered in both campaign and continuous strategies. Conclusions We conclude that continuous mass vaccination would be more effective against endemic cholera than periodic campaigns. Vaccinating children averts more cases per dose than vaccinating all age groups, although vaccinating only children is unlikely to control endemic cholera in Bangladesh. Careful consideration must be made before generalizing these results to other regions. PMID:25473851

Using Dynamic Stochastic Modelling to Estimate Population Risk Factors in Infectious Disease: The Example of FIV in 15 Cat Populations

PubMed Central

Fouchet, David; Leblanc, Guillaume; Sauvage, Frank; Guiserix, Micheline; Poulet, Hervé; Pontier, Dominique

2009-01-01

Background In natural cat populations, Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV) is transmitted through bites between individuals. Factors such as the density of cats within the population or the sex-ratio can have potentially strong effects on the frequency of fight between individuals and hence appear as important population risk factors for FIV. Methodology/Principal Findings To study such population risk factors, we present data on FIV prevalence in 15 cat populations in northeastern France. We investigate five key social factors of cat populations; the density of cats, the sex-ratio, the number of males and the mean age of males and females within the population. We overcome the problem of dependence in the infective status data using sexually-structured dynamic stochastic models. Only the age of males and females had an effect (p = 0.043 and p = 0.02, respectively) on the male-to-female transmission rate. Due to multiple tests, it is even likely that these effects are, in reality, not significant. Finally we show that, in our study area, the data can be explained by a very simple model that does not invoke any risk factor. Conclusion Our conclusion is that, in host-parasite systems in general, fluctuations due to stochasticity in the transmission process are naturally very large and may alone explain a larger part of the variability in observed disease prevalence between populations than previously expected. Finally, we determined confidence intervals for the simple model parameters that can be used to further aid in management of the disease. PMID:19888418

Determinants of genetic structure in a nonequilibrium metapopulation of the plant Silene latifolia.

PubMed

Fields, Peter D; Taylor, Douglas R

2014-01-01

Population genetic differentiation will be influenced by the demographic history of populations, opportunities for migration among neighboring demes and founder effects associated with repeated extinction and recolonization. In natural populations, these factors are expected to interact with each other and their magnitudes will vary depending on the spatial distribution and age structure of local demes. Although each of these effects has been individually identified as important in structuring genetic variance, their relative magnitude is seldom estimated in nature. We conducted a population genetic analysis in a metapopulation of the angiosperm, Silene latifolia, from which we had more than 20 years of data on the spatial distribution, demographic history, and extinction and colonization of demes. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to disentangle which features of the populations contributed to among population variation in allele frequencies, including the magnitude and direction of their effects. We show that population age, long-term size and degree of connectivity all combine to affect the distribution of genetic variance; small, recently-founded, isolated populations contributed most to increase FST in the metapopulation. However, the effects of population size and population age are best understood as being modulated through the effects of connectivity to other extant populations, i.e. FST diminishes as populations age, but at a rate that depends how isolated the population is. These spatial and temporal correlates of population structure give insight into how migration, founder effect and within-deme genetic drift have combined to enhance and restrict genetic divergence in a natural metapopulation.

A population-based longitudinal study on the implications of demographics on future blood supply.

PubMed

Greinacher, Andreas; Weitmann, Kerstin; Lebsa, Anne; Alpen, Ulf; Gloger, Doris; Stangenberg, Wolfgang; Kiefel, Volker; Hoffmann, Wolfgang

2016-12-01

Changes in demographics with increases in older age groups and decreases in younger age groups imply an increased demand for blood transfusions paralleled by a decrease in the population eligible for blood donation. However, more restrictive transfusion triggers and the patient blood management initiative also reduce the demand for red blood cells (RBCs). Eastern Germany is a model region for the impact of demographic changes, which manifest in this region approximately 10 years earlier than in other regions due to the 50% birth rate decline after 1989. We report the 2010 longitudinal 5-year follow-up of the study assessing all whole blood donations and RBC transfusions in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania. We compared the projections that were made 5 years ago with: 1) the current age structure of the blood donor and transfusion recipient populations and 2) its impact on blood demand and blood donation numbers in specific age groups. Transfusion rates were lower and blood donation rates were higher than predicted in 2005. Although transfusion rates/1000 decreased in nearly all age groups, the overall annual transfusion rate increased to 66.4 RBC units/1000 (in 2005, 62.2/1000) due to the absolute increase in the elderly population. Despite a 7.4% decline in the population 18 to 65 years of age, whole blood donations increased by 11.7% between 2005 and 2010, but thereafter decreased by 21% (first-time donors by 39.4%), reflecting the effect of the post-1990 birth rate decline on the donor population. Changes in demography and medical practice impact the delicate balance between available blood supply and potential future transfusion needs. In times of pronounced demographic changes, regular monitoring of the blood demand and age structure of blood recipients and donors is required to allow strategic planning to prevent blood shortages or overproduction. © 2016 AABB.

[Age structure and dynamics of Quercus wutaishanica population in Lingkong Mountain of Shanxi Province, China].

PubMed

Zhang, Jie; Shangguan, Tie-Liang; Duan, Yi-Hao; Guo, Wei; Liu, Wei-Hua; Guo, Dong-Gang

2014-11-01

Using the plant survivorship theory, the age structure, and the relationship between tree height and diameter (DBH) of Quercus wutaishanica population in Lingkong Mountain were analyzed, and the static life table was compiled and the survival curve plotted. The shuttle shape in age structure of Q. wutaishanica population suggested its temporal stability. The linear regression significantly fitted the positive correlation between tree height and DBH. The maximal life expectancy was observed among the trees beyond the age of the highest mortality and coincided with the lowest point of mortality density, suggesting the strong vitality of the seedlings and young trees that survived in the natural selection and intraspecific competition. The population stability of the Q. wutaishanica population was characterized by the Deevey-II of the survival curve. The dynamic pattern was characterized by the recession in the early phase, growth in the intermediate phase, and stability in the latter phase.

Demography of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens): 1974-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, Rebecca L.; Udevitz, Mark S.

2015-01-01

Global climate change may fundamentally alter population dynamics of many species for which baseline population parameter estimates are imprecise or lacking. Historically, the Pacific walrus is thought to have been limited by harvest, but it may become limited by global warming-induced reductions in sea ice. Loss of sea ice, on which walruses rest between foraging bouts, may reduce access to food, thus lowering vital rates. Rigorous walrus survival rate estimates do not exist, and other population parameter estimates are out of date or have well-documented bias and imprecision. To provide useful population parameter estimates we developed a Bayesian, hidden process demographic model of walrus population dynamics from 1974 through 2006 that combined annual age-specific harvest estimates with five population size estimates, six standing age structure estimates, and two reproductive rate estimates. Median density independent natural survival was high for juveniles (0.97) and adults (0.99), and annual density dependent vital rates rose from 0.06 to 0.11 for reproduction, 0.31 to 0.59 for survival of neonatal calves, and 0.39 to 0.85 for survival of older calves, concomitant with a population decline. This integrated population model provides a baseline for estimating changing population dynamics resulting from changing harvests or sea ice.

Work Ability: using structural equation modeling to assess the effects of aging, health and work on the population of Brazilian municipal employees.

PubMed

Alcântara, Marcus A; Sampaio, Rosana F; Assunção, Ada Ávila; Silva, Fabiana C Martins

2014-01-01

The Work Ability Model has a holistic structure that incorporates individual characteristics, work-related factors and life outside of work. The model has been explored in the context of Finland but still needs to be applied in other countries. The aim of this study was to examine the relationships between age, health, work and work ability in a sample of Brazilian municipal employees. A sample of 5,646 workers answered a web-survey questionnaire that collected information about socio-demographics, health, work characteristics and work ability. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to examine the simultaneous relationships between the variables that comprise the Work Ability Model. The sample was predominantly female (68.0%), between 30 and 49 years old (60.0%) and highly educated (66.0%). SEM produced good fit indexes that supported the Work Ability Model. Age was positively related to work ability and negatively related to health. Health and work characteristics positively influenced work ability. The results produced additional support for the conceptualization of work ability as a complex and dynamic phenomenon: a system composed of an individual and various elements of his/her work interact in time and space in a nonlinear way.

Mathematical model of susceptibility, resistance, and resilience in the within-host dynamics between a Plasmodium parasite and the immune system.

PubMed

Yan, Yi; Adam, Brian; Galinski, Mary; C Kissinger, Jessica; Moreno, Alberto; Gutierrez, Juan B

2015-12-01

We developed a coupled age-structured partial differential equation model to capture the disease dynamics during blood-stage malaria. The addition of age structure for the parasite population, with respect to previous models, allows us to better characterize the interaction between the malaria parasite and red blood cells during infection. Here we prove that the system we propose is well-posed and there exist at least two global states. We further demonstrate that the numerical simulation of the system coincides with clinically observed outcomes of primary and secondary malaria infection. The well-posedness of this system guarantees that the behavior of the model remains smooth, bounded, and continuously dependent on initial conditions; calibration with clinical data will constrain domains of parameters and variables to physiological ranges. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulated bat populations erode when exposed to climate change projections for western North America

PubMed Central

Adams, Rick A.

2017-01-01

Recent research has demonstrated that temperature and precipitation conditions correlate with successful reproduction in some insectivorous bat species that live in arid and semiarid regions, and that hot and dry conditions correlate with reduced lactation and reproductive output by females of some species. However, the potential long-term impacts of climate-induced reproductive declines on bat populations in western North America are not well understood. We combined results from long-term field monitoring and experiments in our study area with information on vital rates to develop stochastic age-structured population dynamics models and analyzed how simulated fringed myotis (Myotis thysanodes) populations changed under projected future climate conditions in our study area near Boulder, Colorado (Boulder Models) and throughout western North America (General Models). Each simulation consisted of an initial population of 2,000 females and an approximately stable age distribution at the beginning of the simulation. We allowed each population to be influenced by the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation for our study area and a generalized range-wide model projected through year 2086, for each of four carbon emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). Each population simulation was repeated 10,000 times. Of the 8 Boulder Model simulations, 1 increased (+29.10%), 3 stayed approximately stable (+2.45%, +0.05%, -0.03%), and 4 simulations decreased substantially (-44.10%, -44.70%, -44.95%, -78.85%). All General Model simulations for western North America decreased by >90% (-93.75%, -96.70%, -96.70%, -98.75%). These results suggest that a changing climate in western North America has the potential to quickly erode some forest bat populations including species of conservation concern, such as fringed myotis. PMID:28686737

Simulated bat populations erode when exposed to climate change projections for western North America.

PubMed

Hayes, Mark A; Adams, Rick A

2017-01-01

Recent research has demonstrated that temperature and precipitation conditions correlate with successful reproduction in some insectivorous bat species that live in arid and semiarid regions, and that hot and dry conditions correlate with reduced lactation and reproductive output by females of some species. However, the potential long-term impacts of climate-induced reproductive declines on bat populations in western North America are not well understood. We combined results from long-term field monitoring and experiments in our study area with information on vital rates to develop stochastic age-structured population dynamics models and analyzed how simulated fringed myotis (Myotis thysanodes) populations changed under projected future climate conditions in our study area near Boulder, Colorado (Boulder Models) and throughout western North America (General Models). Each simulation consisted of an initial population of 2,000 females and an approximately stable age distribution at the beginning of the simulation. We allowed each population to be influenced by the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation for our study area and a generalized range-wide model projected through year 2086, for each of four carbon emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). Each population simulation was repeated 10,000 times. Of the 8 Boulder Model simulations, 1 increased (+29.10%), 3 stayed approximately stable (+2.45%, +0.05%, -0.03%), and 4 simulations decreased substantially (-44.10%, -44.70%, -44.95%, -78.85%). All General Model simulations for western North America decreased by >90% (-93.75%, -96.70%, -96.70%, -98.75%). These results suggest that a changing climate in western North America has the potential to quickly erode some forest bat populations including species of conservation concern, such as fringed myotis.

A Health Production Model with Endogenous Retirement

PubMed Central

Galama, Titus; Kapteyn, Arie; Fonseca, Raquel; Michaud, Pierre-Carl

2012-01-01

We formulate a stylized structural model of health, wealth accumulation and retirement decisions building on the human capital framework of health and derive analytic solutions for the time paths of consumption, health, health investment, savings and retirement. We argue that the literature has been unnecessarily restrictive in assuming that health is always at the “optimal” health level. Exploring the properties of corner solutions we find that advances in population health decrease the retirement age, while at the same time individuals retire when their health has deteriorated. This potentially explains why retirees point to deteriorating health as an important reason for early retirement, while retirement ages have continued to fall in the developed world, despite continued improvements in population health and mortality. In our model, workers with higher human capital invest more in health and because they stay healthier retire later than those with lower human capital whose health deteriorates faster. PMID:22888062

Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age‐structure data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Gogan, Peter J.

2012-01-01

It has long been recognized that age‐structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age‐specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age‐structure data.

The role of social and ecological processes in structuring animal populations: a case study from automated tracking of wild birds

PubMed Central

Farine, Damien R.; Firth, Josh A.; Aplin, Lucy M.; Crates, Ross A.; Culina, Antica; Garroway, Colin J.; Hinde, Camilla A.; Kidd, Lindall R.; Milligan, Nicole D.; Psorakis, Ioannis; Radersma, Reinder; Verhelst, Brecht; Voelkl, Bernhard; Sheldon, Ben C.

2015-01-01

Both social and ecological factors influence population process and structure, with resultant consequences for phenotypic selection on individuals. Understanding the scale and relative contribution of these two factors is thus a central aim in evolutionary ecology. In this study, we develop a framework using null models to identify the social and spatial patterns that contribute to phenotypic structure in a wild population of songbirds. We used automated technologies to track 1053 individuals that formed 73 737 groups from which we inferred a social network. Our framework identified that both social and spatial drivers contributed to assortment in the network. In particular, groups had a more even sex ratio than expected and exhibited a consistent age structure that suggested local association preferences, such as preferential attachment or avoidance. By contrast, recent immigrants were spatially partitioned from locally born individuals, suggesting differential dispersal strategies by phenotype. Our results highlight how different scales of social decision-making, ranging from post-natal dispersal settlement to fission–fusion dynamics, can interact to drive phenotypic structure in animal populations. PMID:26064644

Population specific biomarkers of human aging: a big data study using South Korean, Canadian and Eastern European patient populations.

PubMed

Mamoshina, Polina; Kochetov, Kirill; Putin, Evgeny; Cortese, Franco; Aliper, Alexander; Lee, Won-Suk; Ahn, Sung-Min; Uhn, Lee; Skjodt, Neil; Kovalchuk, Olga; Scheibye-Knudsen, Morten; Zhavoronkov, Alex

2018-01-11

Accurate and physiologically meaningful biomarkers for human aging are key to assessing anti-aging therapies. Given ethnic differences in health, diet, lifestyle, behaviour, environmental exposures and even average rate of biological aging, it stands to reason that aging clocks trained on datasets obtained from specific ethnic populations are more likely to account for these potential confounding factors, resulting in an enhanced capacity to predict chronological age and quantify biological age. Here we present a deep learning-based hematological aging clock modeled using the large combined dataset of Canadian, South Korean and Eastern European population blood samples that show increased predictive accuracy in individual populations compared to population-specific hematologic aging clocks. The performance of models was also evaluated on publicly-available samples of the American population from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). In addition, we explored the association between age predicted by both population-specific and combined hematological clocks and all-cause mortality. Overall, this study suggests a) the population-specificity of aging patterns and b) hematologic clocks predicts all-cause mortality. Proposed models added to the freely available Aging.AI system allowing improved ability to assess human aging. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America.

Concealing Concealment: The Mediating Role of Internalized Heterosexism in Psychological Distress Among Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual Older Adults

PubMed Central

Hoy-Ellis, Charles P.

2016-01-01

Recent population-based studies indicate that sexual minorities aged 50 and older experience significantly higher rates of psychological distress than their heterosexual age-peers. The minority stress model has been useful in explaining disparately high rates of psychological distress among younger sexual minorities. The purpose of this study is to test a hypothesized structural relationship between two minority stressors—internalized heterosexism and concealment of sexual orientation—and consequent psychological distress among a sample of 2,349 lesbian, gay, and bisexual adults aged 50 to 95 years old. Structural equation modeling indicates that concealment has a nonsignificant direct effect on psychological distress but a significant indirect effect that is mediated through internalized heterosexism; the effect of concealment is itself concealed. This may explain divergent results regarding the role of concealment in psychological distress in other studies, and the implications will be discussed. PMID:26322654

World Population Ageing, 1950-2050.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations, New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs.

Population aging was one of the most distinctive events of the 20th century and will remain important throughout the 21st century. Initially, a phenomenon of more developed countries, the process has recently become apparent in much of the developing world as well. The shift in age structure associated with population aging has a profound impact…

Models to compare management options for a protogynous fish.

PubMed

Heppell, Selina S; Heppell, Scott A; Coleman, Felicia C; Koenig, Christopher C

2006-02-01

Populations of gag (Mycteroperca microlepis), a hermaphroditic grouper, have experienced a dramatic shift in sex ratio over the past 25 years due to a decline in older age classes. The highly female-skewed sex ratio can be predicted as a consequence of increased fishing mortality that truncates the age distribution, and raises some concern about the overall fitness of the population. Management efforts may need to be directed toward maintenance of sex ratio as well as stock size, with evaluations of recruitment based on sex ratio or male stock size in addition to the traditional female-based stock-recruitment relationship. We used two stochastic, age-structured models to heuristically compare the effects of reducing fishing mortality on different life history stages and the relative impact of reductions in fertilization rates that may occur with highly skewed sex ratios. Our response variables included population size, sex ratio, lost egg fertility, and female spawning stock biomass. Population growth rates were highest for scenarios that reduced mortality for female gag (nearshore closure), while improved sex ratios were obtained most quickly with spawning reserves. The effect of reduced fertility through sex ratio bias was generally low but depended on the management scenario employed. Our results demonstrate the utility of evaluation of fishery management scenarios through model analysis and simulation, the synergistic interaction of life history and response to changes in mortality rates, and the importance of defining management goals.

Reproductive maturation and senescence in the female brown bear

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwartz, Charles C.; Keating, Kim A.; Reynolds III, Harry V.; Barnes, Victor G.; Sellers, Richard A.; Swenson, J.E.; Miller, Sterling D.; McLellan, B.N.; Keay, Jeffrey A.; McCann, Robert; Gibeau, Michael; Wakkinen, Wayne F.; Mace, Richard D.; Kasworm, Wayne; Smith, Rodger; Herrero, Steven

2003-01-01

Changes in age-specific reproductive rates can have important implications for managing populations, but the number of female brown (grizzly) bears (Ursus arctos) observed in any one study is usually inadequate to quantify such patterns, especially for older females and in hunted areas. We examined patterns of reproductive maturation and senescence in female brown bears by combining data from 20 study areas from Sweden, Alaska, Canada, and the continental United States. We assessed reproductive performance based on 4,726 radiocollared years for free-ranging female brown bears (age 3); 482 of these were for bears 20 years of age. We modeled age-specific probability of litter production using extreme value distributions to describe probabilities for young- and old-age classes, and a power distribution function to describe probabilities for prime-aged animals. We then fit 4 models to pooled observations from our 20 study areas. We used Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) to select the best model. Inflection points suggest that major shifts in litter production occur at 4–5 and 28–29 years of age. The estimated model asymptote (0.332, 95% CI ¼ 0.319–0.344) was consistent with the expected reproductive cycle of a cub litter every 3 years (0.333). We discuss assumptions and biases in data collection relative to the shape of the model curve. Our results conform to senescence theory and suggest that female age structure in contemporary brown bear populations is considerably younger than would be expected in the absence of modern man. This implies that selective pressures today differ from those that influenced brown bear evolution.

Longevity of clonal plants: why it matters and how to measure it

PubMed Central

de Witte, Lucienne C.; Stöcklin, Jürg

2010-01-01

Background Species' life-history and population dynamics are strongly shaped by the longevity of individuals, but life span is one of the least accessible demographic traits, particularly in clonal plants. Continuous vegetative reproduction of genets enables persistence despite low or no sexual reproduction, affecting genet turnover rates and population stability. Therefore, the longevity of clonal plants is of considerable biological interest, but remains relatively poorly known. Scope Here, we critically review the present knowledge on the longevity of clonal plants and discuss its importance for population persistence. Direct life-span measurements such as growth-ring analysis in woody plants are relatively easy to take, although, for many clonal plants, these methods are not adequate due to the variable growth pattern of ramets and difficult genet identification. Recently, indirect methods have been introduced in which genet size and annual shoot increments are used to estimate genet age. These methods, often based on molecular techniques, allow the investigation of genet size and age structure of whole populations, a crucial issue for understanding their viability and persistence. However, indirect estimates of clonal longevity are impeded because the process of ageing in clonal plants is still poorly understood and because their size and age are not always well correlated. Alternative estimators for genet life span such as somatic mutations have recently been suggested. Conclusions Empirical knowledge on the longevity of clonal species has increased considerably in the last few years. Maximum age estimates are an indicator of population persistence, but are not sufficient to evaluate turnover rates and the ability of long-lived clonal plants to enhance community stability and ecosystem resilience. In order to understand the dynamics of populations it will be necessary to measure genet size and age structure, not only life spans of single individuals, and to use such data for modelling of genet dynamics. PMID:20880935

Assessment of Cognitively Stimulating Activity in a Spanish Population.

PubMed

Morales Ortiz, Manuel; Fernández, Aaron

2018-05-01

Theoretical models of active ageing and cognitive reserve emphasize the importance of leading an active life to delay age-related cognitive deterioration and maintain good levels of well-being and personal satisfaction in the elderly. The objective of this research was to construct a scale to measure cognitively stimulating activities (CSA) in the Spanish language. The sample consisted of a total of 453 older persons. The scale was constructed from a list of 28 items and validated using structural equation models. The scale obtained showed a negative correlation with age and a positive correlation with education and physical activity. Using hierarchical regression models, CSAs were found to have a significant effect on attention when controlling for the effect of age and education. Likewise, a significant interaction between age and CSA was found on the measure of episodic memory. The validated CSA scale will enable the relationships between changes in cognitive functions and stimulating activities to be studied.

Modeling the brain morphology distribution in the general aging population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huizinga, W.; Poot, D. H. J.; Roshchupkin, G.; Bron, E. E.; Ikram, M. A.; Vernooij, M. W.; Rueckert, D.; Niessen, W. J.; Klein, S.

2016-03-01

Both normal aging and neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease cause morphological changes of the brain. To better distinguish between normal and abnormal cases, it is necessary to model changes in brain morphology owing to normal aging. To this end, we developed a method for analyzing and visualizing these changes for the entire brain morphology distribution in the general aging population. The method is applied to 1000 subjects from a large population imaging study in the elderly, from which 900 were used to train the model and 100 were used for testing. The results of the 100 test subjects show that the model generalizes to subjects outside the model population. Smooth percentile curves showing the brain morphology changes as a function of age and spatiotemporal atlases derived from the model population are publicly available via an interactive web application at agingbrain.bigr.nl.

The demographic components of population aging in China.

PubMed

Grigsby, J S; Olshansky, S J

1989-01-01

"In this paper we examine measures of population aging in China from 1953 to 1982, and then project population aging to the year 2050 using a cohort-components methodology.... Results indicate that China's population will age at an unprecedented rate over the next 70 years, both in terms of the absolute size of the elderly population and their proportion of the total population. At least 50 percent of the projected increase in population aging in China between 1980 and 2050 will be a product of the momentum for aging that is already built into the present age structure and vital rates. However, prospective trends in the measures of population aging become increasingly more sensitive to varying assumptions about fertility and mortality with time, and as older age groups are considered." excerpt

Mathematical analysis of an age-structured population model with space-limited recruitment.

PubMed

Kamioka, Katumi

2005-11-01

In this paper, we investigate structured population model of marine invertebrate whose life stage is composed of sessile adults and pelagic larvae, such as barnacles contained in a local habitat. First we formulate the basic model as an Cauchy problem on a Banach space to discuss the existence and uniqueness of non-negative solution. Next we define the basic reproduction number R0 to formulate the invasion condition under which the larvae can successfully settle down in the completely vacant habitat. Subsequently we examine existence and stability of steady states. We show that the trivial steady state is globally asymptotically stable if R0 < or = 1, whereas it is unstable if R0 > 1. Furthermore, we show that a positive (non-trivial) steady state uniquely exists if R0 > 1 and it is locally asymptotically stable as far as absolute value of R0 - 1 is small enough.

A prediction of the trend of population development in urban and rural areas in China.

PubMed

Hu, Y

1998-01-01

This study predicts trends in population growth, urbanization, and age structure in China. Data were obtained from the 1990 Census. Population totaled 1.22 billion at the end of 1996. The fertility model predicts future fertility by variant and parity; parameters are provided in a table. High, medium, and low fertility variants, respectively, are based on the total regressive fertility rates (TRFR) of 2.23, 1.9, and 1.6. The medium variant assumes 2 children in rural areas. The low variant is ideal and assumes no third parity in rural areas. Urbanization means an annual average increase of 0.5% after 1996 at pace I and 0.8% at pace II. Urban population will be 57.8% of total population by 2050. Under these three variants, population size in 2000 will be 898 million in rural and 403 million in urban areas, 869 million in rural and 400 million in urban areas, and 856 million in rural and 398 million in urban areas, respectively. Population will peak at 1.7 billion in 2050, at 1.48 billion in 2033, and at 1.38 billion in 2023, respectively. During the period 2000-2020, about 10-14 million rural migrants will move to urban areas; 10 million will move thereafter. The elderly aged over 60 years will reach 7% by 2000 and 20% by 2040. Rural population will age faster than urban population. The working age population will reach 775 million in 2000, peak at 868 million in 2016, and will always be over 60% of total population. School-age population will amount to over 300 million by 2030. Young population will always be more than 25% in rural areas, which is nearly 17 percentage points higher than in urban areas.

Breast cancer age at diagnosis patterns in four Latin American Populations: A comparison with North American countries.

PubMed

Franco-Marina, Francisco; López-Carrillo, Lizbeth; Keating, Nancy L; Arreola-Ornelas, Hector; Marie Knaul, Felicia

2015-12-01

In the Latin America countries (LAC), one in five breast cancer (BC) cases occur in women younger than 45 years, almost twice the frequency seen in developed countries. Most BC cases in younger women are premenopausal and are generally more difficult to detect at early stages and to treat than postmenopausal cancers. We employ data from four high quality population-based registries located in LAC and assess the extent to which the higher frequency of BC occurring in younger women is due to a younger population structure, compared to that of developed countries. Next, we analyze secular and generational trends of incidence rates in search for additional explanations. Using data from the International Agency for Research on cancer, between 1988 and 2007, the age distribution of BC incident cases for registries located in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador is compared to that of USA and Canadian registries, both before and after removing differences in population age structure. An age-period-cohort modelling of incidence rates is also conducted in all compared registries to identify secular and generational effects. BC incident cases in the LAC registries present, on average, at an earlier age than in the USA and Canadian registries and for 2003-2007, between 20 and 27% of cases occur in women aged 20-44. About two thirds of the difference in age distribution between LAC and USA registries is attributable to the younger age distribution in the LAC base populations. The USA registries show the highest age-specific BC incidence rates of all compared aggregated registries, at all ages. However, in all the LAC registries incidence rates are rapidly increasing, fueled by a strong birth cohort effect. This cohort effect may be explained by important reduction in fertility rates occurring during the second half of the 20th century, but also by a greater exposure to other risk factors for BC related to the adoption of life styles more prevalent in developed countries. The younger age at presentation of BC incident cases seen in the analyzed LAC registries, and possibly in many Latin American countries, is not only attributable to their relatively young population age structure but also to the low incidence rates in older women. As more recently born cohorts, with greater exposure to risk factors for postmenopausal BC, reach older age, incidence rates will be more similar to the rates seen in the USA and Canadian registries. There is a need for additional research to identify determinants of the higher BC rate among younger women in these countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficient Vaccine Distribution Based on a Hybrid Compartmental Model.

PubMed

Yu, Zhiwen; Liu, Jiming; Wang, Xiaowei; Zhu, Xianjun; Wang, Daxing; Han, Guoqiang

2016-01-01

To effectively and efficiently reduce the morbidity and mortality that may be caused by outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, it is very important for public health agencies to make informed decisions for controlling the spread of the disease. Such decisions must incorporate various kinds of intervention strategies, such as vaccinations, school closures and border restrictions. Recently, researchers have paid increased attention to searching for effective vaccine distribution strategies for reducing the effects of pandemic outbreaks when resources are limited. Most of the existing research work has been focused on how to design an effective age-structured epidemic model and to select a suitable vaccine distribution strategy to prevent the propagation of an infectious virus. Models that evaluate age structure effects are common, but models that additionally evaluate geographical effects are less common. In this paper, we propose a new SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious šC recovered) model, named the hybrid SEIR-V model (HSEIR-V), which considers not only the dynamics of infection prevalence in several age-specific host populations, but also seeks to characterize the dynamics by which a virus spreads in various geographic districts. Several vaccination strategies such as different kinds of vaccine coverage, different vaccine releasing times and different vaccine deployment methods are incorporated into the HSEIR-V compartmental model. We also design four hybrid vaccination distribution strategies (based on population size, contact pattern matrix, infection rate and infectious risk) for controlling the spread of viral infections. Based on data from the 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza epidemic, we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed HSEIR-V model and study the effects of different types of human behaviour in responding to epidemics.

Efficient Vaccine Distribution Based on a Hybrid Compartmental Model

PubMed Central

Yu, Zhiwen; Liu, Jiming; Wang, Xiaowei; Zhu, Xianjun; Wang, Daxing; Han, Guoqiang

2016-01-01

To effectively and efficiently reduce the morbidity and mortality that may be caused by outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, it is very important for public health agencies to make informed decisions for controlling the spread of the disease. Such decisions must incorporate various kinds of intervention strategies, such as vaccinations, school closures and border restrictions. Recently, researchers have paid increased attention to searching for effective vaccine distribution strategies for reducing the effects of pandemic outbreaks when resources are limited. Most of the existing research work has been focused on how to design an effective age-structured epidemic model and to select a suitable vaccine distribution strategy to prevent the propagation of an infectious virus. Models that evaluate age structure effects are common, but models that additionally evaluate geographical effects are less common. In this paper, we propose a new SEIR (susceptible—exposed—infectious šC recovered) model, named the hybrid SEIR-V model (HSEIR-V), which considers not only the dynamics of infection prevalence in several age-specific host populations, but also seeks to characterize the dynamics by which a virus spreads in various geographic districts. Several vaccination strategies such as different kinds of vaccine coverage, different vaccine releasing times and different vaccine deployment methods are incorporated into the HSEIR-V compartmental model. We also design four hybrid vaccination distribution strategies (based on population size, contact pattern matrix, infection rate and infectious risk) for controlling the spread of viral infections. Based on data from the 2009–2010 H1N1 influenza epidemic, we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed HSEIR-V model and study the effects of different types of human behaviour in responding to epidemics. PMID:27233015

The contribution of social behaviour to the transmission of influenza A in a human population.

PubMed

Kucharski, Adam J; Kwok, Kin O; Wei, Vivian W I; Cowling, Benjamin J; Read, Jonathan M; Lessler, Justin; Cummings, Derek A; Riley, Steven

2014-06-01

Variability in the risk of transmission for respiratory pathogens can result from several factors, including the intrinsic properties of the pathogen, the immune state of the host and the host's behaviour. It has been proposed that self-reported social mixing patterns can explain the behavioural component of this variability, with simulated intervention studies based on these data used routinely to inform public health policy. However, in the absence of robust studies with biological endpoints for individuals, it is unclear how age and social behaviour contribute to infection risk. To examine how the structure and nature of social contacts influenced infection risk over the course of a single epidemic, we designed a flexible disease modelling framework: the population was divided into a series of increasingly detailed age and social contact classes, with the transmissibility of each age-contact class determined by the average contacts of that class. Fitting the models to serologically confirmed infection data from the 2009 Hong Kong influenza A/H1N1p pandemic, we found that an individual's risk of infection was influenced strongly by the average reported social mixing behaviour of their age group, rather than by their personal reported contacts. We also identified the resolution of social mixing that shaped transmission: epidemic dynamics were driven by intense contacts between children, a post-childhood drop in risky contacts and a subsequent rise in contacts for individuals aged 35-50. Our results demonstrate that self-reported social contact surveys can account for age-associated heterogeneity in the transmission of a respiratory pathogen in humans, and show robustly how these individual-level behaviours manifest themselves through assortative age groups. Our results suggest it is possible to profile the social structure of different populations and to use these aggregated data to predict their inherent transmission potential.

Immunity in the Noisy Penna Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biecek, Przemysław; Cebrat, Stanisław

We have modified the Penna standard sexual model in such a way, that the state of each individual has been determined by the individual fluctuation and the fluctuation of the environment. If the sum of both fluctuations is higher than the assumed limit, the organism dies. Additionally, the individuals can learn the trends of the environment's fluctuations, diminishing their deleterious effects. This mechanism leads to the higher mortality of the youngest individuals and the lowest mortality of individuals just before reaching the minimum reproduction age. These phenomena are observed in any mortality curve describing the age structures of human populations.

Population Pharmacokinetic Analysis for a Single 1,200-Milligram Dose of Oritavancin Using Data from Two Pivotal Phase 3 Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Bhavnani, S. M.; Moeck, G.; Bellibas, S. E.; Ambrose, P. G.

2015-01-01

Oritavancin is a lipoglycopeptide antibiotic with activity against Gram-positive bacteria. Here we describe oritavancin population pharmacokinetics and the impact of patient-specific covariates on drug exposure variability. Concentration-time data were analyzed from two phase 3 clinical trials, SOLO I and SOLO II, in which oritavancin was administered as a single 1,200-mg dose to patients with acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections. A total of 1,337 drug concentrations from 297 patients (90% of whom had 4 or 5 pharmacokinetic samples) were available for analysis. A previously derived population model based on data from 12 phase 1, 2, and 3 oritavancin studies was applied to the SOLO data set. Alterations to the structural model were made, as necessary, based on model fit. Analyses utilized Monte Carlo parametric expectation maximization (S-ADAPT 1.5.6). The previous population pharmacokinetic model fit the data well (r2 = 0.972), and population pharmacokinetic parameters were estimated with acceptable precision and lack of bias. Covariate evaluations revealed statistically significant relationships between central compartment volume and age and between clearance and height; however, these relationships did not indicate a clinically relevant impact on oritavancin exposure over the range of age and height observed in the SOLO studies. The mean (coefficient of variation [CV]) area under the plasma concentration-time curve from time zero to 72 h (AUC0–72) and maximum plasma concentration (Cmax) were 1,530 (36.9%) μg · h/ml and 138 (23%) μg/ml, respectively. The mean (CV) half-life at alpha phase (t1/2α), t1/2β, and t1/2γ were 2.29 (49.8%), 13.4 (10.5%), and 245 (14.9%) hours, respectively. These analyses are the first to describe oritavancin pharmacokinetics following a single 1,200-mg dose. Covariate analyses suggested that no dose adjustments are required for renal impairment (creatinine clearance, >29 ml/min), mild or moderate hepatic impairment, age, weight, gender, or diabetes status. PMID:25824211

Special issue dedicated to the 70th birthday of Glenn F. Webb. Preface.

PubMed

Hinow, Peter; Magal, Pierre; Ruan, Shigui

2015-08-01

This special issue is dedicated to the 70th birthday of Glenn F. Webb. The topics of the 12 articles appearing in this special issue include evolutionary dynamics of population growth, spatio-temporal dynamics in reaction-diffusion biological models, transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, modeling of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in hospitals, analysis of Prion models, age-structured models in ecology and epidemiology, modeling of immune response to infections, modeling of cancer growth, etc. These topics partially represent the broad areas of Glenn's research interest.

The evolution of antibiotic resistance in a structured host population.

PubMed

Blanquart, François; Lehtinen, Sonja; Lipsitch, Marc; Fraser, Christophe

2018-06-01

The evolution of antibiotic resistance in opportunistic pathogens such as Streptococcus pneumoniae , Escherichia coli or Staphylococcus aureus is a major public health problem, as infection with resistant strains leads to prolonged hospital stay and increased risk of death. Here, we develop a new model of the evolution of antibiotic resistance in a commensal bacterial population adapting to a heterogeneous host population composed of untreated and treated hosts, and structured in different host classes with different antibiotic use. Examples of host classes include age groups and geographic locations. Explicitly modelling the antibiotic treatment reveals that the emergence of a resistant strain is favoured by more frequent but shorter antibiotic courses, and by higher transmission rates. In addition, in a structured host population, localized transmission in host classes promotes both local adaptation of the bacterial population and the global maintenance of coexistence between sensitive and resistant strains. When transmission rates are heterogeneous across host classes, resistant strains evolve more readily in core groups of transmission. These findings have implications for the better management of antibiotic resistance: reducing the rate at which individuals receive antibiotics is more effective to reduce resistance than reducing the duration of treatment. Reducing the rate of treatment in a targeted class of the host population allows greater reduction in resistance, but determining which class to target is difficult in practice. © 2018 The Authors.

China: Awakening Giant Developing Solutions to Population Aging

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Ning Jackie; Guo, Man; Zheng, Xiaoying

2012-01-01

As the world's most populous country with the largest aging population and a rapidly growing economy, China is receiving increased attention from both the Chinese government and the governments of other countries that face low fertility and aging problems. This unprecedented shift of demographic structure has repercussions for many aspects of…

Match or mismatch: the influence of phenology on size-dependent life history and divergence in population structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borcherding, Jost; Beeck, Peter; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Scharf, Werner R.

2010-01-01

Summary 1. In gape-limited predators, body size asymmetries determine the outcome of predator-prey interactions. Due to ontogenetic changes in body size, the intensity of intra- and interspecific interactions may change rapidly between the match situation of a predator-prey system and the mismatch situation in which competition, including competition with the prey, dominates. 2. Based on a physiologically structured population model using the European perch (Perca fluviatilis), analysis was performed on how prey density (bream, Abramis brama), initial size differences in the young-of-the-year (YOY) age cohort of the predator, and phenology (time-gap in hatching of predator and prey) influence the size structure of the predator cohort. 3. In relation to the seasonality of reproduction, the match situation of the predator-prey system occurred when perch hatched earlier than bream and when no gape-size limitations existed, leading to decreased size divergence in the predator age cohort. Decreased size divergence was also found when bream hatched much earlier than perch, preventing perch predation on bream occurring, which, in turn, increased the competitive interaction of the perch with bream for the common prey, zooplankton; i.e. the mismatch situation in which also the mean size of the age cohort of the predator decreased. 4. In between the total match and the mismatch, however, only the largest individuals of the perch age cohort were able to prey on the bream, while smaller conspecifics got trapped in competition with each other and with bream for zooplankton, leading to enlarged differences in growth that increased size divergence. 5. The modelling results were combined with 7 years of field data in a lake, where large differences in the length-frequency distribution of YOY perch were observed after their first summer. These field data corroborate that phenology and prey density per predator are important mechanisms in determining size differences within the YOY age cohort of the predator. 6. The results demonstrate that the switch between competitive interactions and a predator-prey relationship depended on phenology. This resulted in pronounced size differences in the YOY age cohort, which had far-reaching consequences for the entire predator population.

An age-structured extension to the vectorial capacity model.

PubMed

Novoseltsev, Vasiliy N; Michalski, Anatoli I; Novoseltseva, Janna A; Yashin, Anatoliy I; Carey, James R; Ellis, Alicia M

2012-01-01

Vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number (R(0)) have been instrumental in structuring thinking about vector-borne pathogen transmission and how best to prevent the diseases they cause. One of the more important simplifying assumptions of these models is age-independent vector mortality. A growing body of evidence indicates that insect vectors exhibit age-dependent mortality, which can have strong and varied affects on pathogen transmission dynamics and strategies for disease prevention. Based on survival analysis we derived new equations for vectorial capacity and R(0) that are valid for any pattern of age-dependent (or age-independent) vector mortality and explore the behavior of the models across various mortality patterns. The framework we present (1) lays the groundwork for an extension and refinement of the vectorial capacity paradigm by introducing an age-structured extension to the model, (2) encourages further research on the actuarial dynamics of vectors in particular and the relationship of vector mortality to pathogen transmission in general, and (3) provides a detailed quantitative basis for understanding the relative impact of reductions in vector longevity compared to other vector-borne disease prevention strategies. Accounting for age-dependent vector mortality in estimates of vectorial capacity and R(0) was most important when (1) vector densities are relatively low and the pattern of mortality can determine whether pathogen transmission will persist; i.e., determines whether R(0) is above or below 1, (2) vector population growth rate is relatively low and there are complex interactions between birth and death that differ fundamentally from birth-death relationships with age-independent mortality, and (3) the vector exhibits complex patterns of age-dependent mortality and R(0) ∼ 1. A limiting factor in the construction and evaluation of new age-dependent mortality models is the paucity of data characterizing vector mortality patterns, particularly for free ranging vectors in the field.

The Role of Exercise in Cardiac Aging: From Physiology to Molecular Mechanisms

PubMed Central

Roh, Jason; Rhee, James; Chaudhari, Vinita; Rosenzweig, Anthony

2015-01-01

Aging induces structural and functional changes in the heart that are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease and impaired functional capacity in the elderly. Exercise is a diagnostic and therapeutic tool, with the potential to provide insights into clinical diagnosis and prognosis, as well as the molecular mechanisms by which aging influences cardiac physiology and function. In this review, we first provide an overview of how aging impacts the cardiac response to exercise and the implications this has for functional capacity in older adults. We then review the underlying molecular mechanisms by which cardiac aging contributes to exercise intolerance, and conversely how exercise training can potentially modulate aging phenotypes in the heart. Finally, we highlight the potential use of these exercise models to complement models of disease in efforts to uncover new therapeutic targets to prevent or treat heart disease in the aging population. PMID:26838314

The Role of Exercise in Cardiac Aging: From Physiology to Molecular Mechanisms.

PubMed

Roh, Jason; Rhee, James; Chaudhari, Vinita; Rosenzweig, Anthony

2016-01-22

Aging induces structural and functional changes in the heart that are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease and impaired functional capacity in the elderly. Exercise is a diagnostic and therapeutic tool, with the potential to provide insights into clinical diagnosis and prognosis, as well as the molecular mechanisms by which aging influences cardiac physiology and function. In this review, we first provide an overview of how aging impacts the cardiac response to exercise, and the implications this has for functional capacity in older adults. We then review the underlying molecular mechanisms by which cardiac aging contributes to exercise intolerance, and conversely how exercise training can potentially modulate aging phenotypes in the heart. Finally, we highlight the potential use of these exercise models to complement models of disease in efforts to uncover new therapeutic targets to prevent or treat heart disease in the aging population. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Evolution over time of the Milky Way's disc shape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amôres, E. B.; Robin, A. C.; Reylé, C.

2017-06-01

Context. Galactic structure studies can be used as a path to constrain the scenario of formation and evolution of our Galaxy. The dependence with the age of stellar population parameters would be linked with the history of star formation and dynamical evolution. Aims: We aim to investigate the structures of the outer Galaxy, such as the scale length, disc truncation, warp and flare of the thin disc and study their dependence with age by using 2MASS data and a population synthesis model (the so-called Besançon Galaxy Model). Methods: We have used a genetic algorithm to adjust the parameters on the observed colour-magnitude diagrams at longitudes 80° ≤ ℓ ≤ 280° for | b | ≤ 5.5°. We explored parameter degeneracies and uncertainties. Results: We identify a clear dependence of the thin disc scale length, warp and flare shapes with age. The scale length is found to vary between 3.8 kpc for the youngest to about 2 kpc for the oldest. The warp shows a complex structure, clearly asymmetrical with a node angle changing with age from approximately 165° for old stars to 195° for young stars. The outer disc is also flaring with a scale height that varies by a factor of two between the solar neighbourhood and a Galactocentric distance of 12 kpc. Conclusions: We conclude that the thin disc scale length is in good agreement with the inside-out formation scenario and that the outer disc is not in dynamical equilibrium. The warp deformation with time may provide some clues to its origin.

Socio-Demographic Determinants of Economic Growth: Age-Structure, Preindustrial Heritage and Sociolinguistic Integration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crenshaw, Edward; Robison, Kristopher

2010-01-01

This study establishes a socio-demographic theory of international development derived from selected classical and contemporary sociological theories. Four hypotheses are tested: (1. population growth's effect on development depends on age-structure; (2. historic population density (used here as an indicator of preindustrial social complexity)…

Analysis of near infrared spectra for age-grading of wild populations of Anopheles gambiae

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A greater understanding of the age-structure of mosquito populations, especially malaria vectors such as Anopheles gambiae, is important for assessing the risk of infectious mosquitoes, and how vector control interventions may affect this structure. The use of near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) for a...

Hierarchical Bayesian analysis to incorporate age uncertainty in growth curve analysis and estimates of age from length: Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwarz, L.K.; Runge, M.C.

2009-01-01

Age estimation of individuals is often an integral part of species management research, and a number of ageestimation techniques are commonly employed. Often, the error in these techniques is not quantified or accounted for in other analyses, particularly in growth curve models used to describe physiological responses to environment and human impacts. Also, noninvasive, quick, and inexpensive methods to estimate age are needed. This research aims to provide two Bayesian methods to (i) incorporate age uncertainty into an age-length Schnute growth model and (ii) produce a method from the growth model to estimate age from length. The methods are then employed for Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses. After quantifying the uncertainty in the aging technique (counts of ear bone growth layers), we fit age-length data to the Schnute growth model separately by sex and season. Independent prior information about population age structure and the results of the Schnute model are then combined to estimate age from length. Results describing the age-length relationship agree with our understanding of manatee biology. The new methods allow us to estimate age, with quantified uncertainty, for 98% of collected carcasses: 36% from ear bones, 62% from length.

Young star clusters in nearby molecular clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getman, K. V.; Kuhn, M. A.; Feigelson, E. D.; Broos, P. S.; Bate, M. R.; Garmire, G. P.

2018-06-01

The SFiNCs (Star Formation in Nearby Clouds) project is an X-ray/infrared study of the young stellar populations in 22 star-forming regions with distances ≲ 1 kpc designed to extend our earlier MYStIX (Massive Young Star-Forming Complex Study in Infrared and X-ray) survey of more distant clusters. Our central goal is to give empirical constraints on cluster formation mechanisms. Using parametric mixture models applied homogeneously to the catalogue of SFiNCs young stars, we identify 52 SFiNCs clusters and 19 unclustered stellar structures. The procedure gives cluster properties including location, population, morphology, association with molecular clouds, absorption, age (AgeJX), and infrared spectral energy distribution (SED) slope. Absorption, SED slope, and AgeJX are age indicators. SFiNCs clusters are examined individually, and collectively with MYStIX clusters, to give the following results. (1) SFiNCs is dominated by smaller, younger, and more heavily obscured clusters than MYStIX. (2) SFiNCs cloud-associated clusters have the high ellipticities aligned with their host molecular filaments indicating morphology inherited from their parental clouds. (3) The effect of cluster expansion is evident from the radius-age, radius-absorption, and radius-SED correlations. Core radii increase dramatically from ˜0.08 to ˜0.9 pc over the age range 1-3.5 Myr. Inferred gas removal time-scales are longer than 1 Myr. (4) Rich, spatially distributed stellar populations are present in SFiNCs clouds representing early generations of star formation. An appendix compares the performance of the mixture models and non-parametric minimum spanning tree to identify clusters. This work is a foundation for future SFiNCs/MYStIX studies including disc longevity, age gradients, and dynamical modelling.

A Demographic Analysis of American Geophysical Union Membership with Implications for Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhodes, D. D.

2006-12-01

Demographers use population pyramids to characterize the age/gender structure of societal groups. Diagrams of the population of age cohorts for both sexes assume the shape of a pyramid in rapidly expanding groups, having many more young people than older adults. Stable populations have similar numbers of people in age cohorts from infants through middle-age adults. Shrinking populations have fewer children and relatively larger numbers of adults. Demographic analysis of the American Geophysical Union's (AGU) membership reveals significant differences among the numerous specialties and the membership as a whole. The population structure diagram of the total AGU membership is highly asymmetrical with 77.5% male and 22.5% female. Males outnumber females in every age cohort. This is most noticeable among members born prior to 1945. Males belonging to these cohorts make up 16.5% of the total membership, while female members of equivalent age include 0.8% of the total. The largest membership cohort (29% of the total) is comprised of males born between 1950 and 1964, a group that includes both the "baby boom" generation and post-war petroleum exploration expansion. In contrast, the female cohort with birth years from 1970 to 1979 is the largest grouping of women members (8.4% of AGU's membership). Furthermore, women comprise 36% of the members born since 1965, and only 14.5% of those born before 1965. Considered separately, the female membership's age structure is characteristic of a growing population, while the male side is in relative decline. The population structure of the entire membership is mirrored in some specialties, but there are remarkable differences in others. The largest specialty group (hydrology) includes 16.9% of the total AGU membership and has a population structure that differs little from that of the whole organization. Four specialties, Atmospheric Chemistry, Biogeosciences, and Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, and Marine Geochemistry differ significantly from the aggregate membership. The population structures of these groups are pyramidal, indicating a strong potential for growth. Women also comprise more than 30% of each of these groups and outnumber men in some recent cohorts. Growth potential is unevenly distributed throughout AGU's membership with traditional specialties likely to experience significant decline as the older cohorts retire and die. Strongest growth is most likely to occur in recently recognized interdisciplinary specialties, especially those in which women already constitute a significant fraction of the membership.

Modeling Age-Friendly Environment, Active Aging, and Social Connectedness in an Emerging Asian Economy.

PubMed

Lai, Ming-Ming; Lein, Shi-Ying; Lau, Siok-Hwa; Lai, Ming-Ling

2016-01-01

This paper empirically tested eight key features of WHO guidelines to age-friendly community by surveying 211 informal caregivers and 402 self-care adults (aged 45 to 85 and above) in Malaysia. We examined the associations of these eight features with active aging and social connectedness through exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. A structural model with satisfactory goodness-of-fit indices (CMIN/df = 1.11, RMSEA = 0.02, NFI = 0.97, TLI = 1.00, CFI = 1.00, and GFI = 0.96) indicates that transportation and housing, community support and health services, and outdoor spaces and buildings are statistically significant in creating an age-friendly environment. We found a statistically significant positive relationship between an age-friendly environment and active aging. This relationship is mediated by social connectedness. The results indicate that built environments such as accessible public transportations and housing, affordable and accessible healthcare services, and elderly friendly outdoor spaces and buildings have to be put into place before social environment in building an age-friendly environment. Otherwise, the structural barriers would hinder social interactions for the aged. The removal of the environmental barriers and improved public transportation services provide short-term solutions to meet the varied and growing needs of the older population.

Modeling Age-Friendly Environment, Active Aging, and Social Connectedness in an Emerging Asian Economy

PubMed Central

Lai, Ming-Ming; Lein, Shi-Ying; Lau, Siok-Hwa; Lai, Ming-Ling

2016-01-01

This paper empirically tested eight key features of WHO guidelines to age-friendly community by surveying 211 informal caregivers and 402 self-care adults (aged 45 to 85 and above) in Malaysia. We examined the associations of these eight features with active aging and social connectedness through exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. A structural model with satisfactory goodness-of-fit indices (CMIN/df = 1.11, RMSEA = 0.02, NFI = 0.97, TLI = 1.00, CFI = 1.00, and GFI = 0.96) indicates that transportation and housing, community support and health services, and outdoor spaces and buildings are statistically significant in creating an age-friendly environment. We found a statistically significant positive relationship between an age-friendly environment and active aging. This relationship is mediated by social connectedness. The results indicate that built environments such as accessible public transportations and housing, affordable and accessible healthcare services, and elderly friendly outdoor spaces and buildings have to be put into place before social environment in building an age-friendly environment. Otherwise, the structural barriers would hinder social interactions for the aged. The removal of the environmental barriers and improved public transportation services provide short-term solutions to meet the varied and growing needs of the older population. PMID:27293889

Assessing vaccination as a control strategy in an ongoing epidemic: Bovine tuberculosis in African buffalo

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cross, Paul C.; Getz, W.M.

2006-01-01

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is an exotic disease invading the buffalo population (Syncerus caffer) of the Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa. We used a sex and age-structured epidemiological model to assess the effectiveness of a vaccination program and define important research directions. The model allows for dispersal between a focal herd and background population and was parameterized with a combination of published data and analyses of over 130 radio-collared buffalo in the central region of the KNP. Radio-tracking data indicated that all sex and age categories move between mixed herds, and males over 8 years old had higher mortality and dispersal rates than any other sex or age category. In part due to the high dispersal rates of buffalo, sensitivity analyses indicate that disease prevalence in the background population accounts for the most variability in the BTB prevalence and quasi-eradication within the focal herd. Vaccination rate and the transmission coefficient were the second and third most important parameters of the sensitivity analyses. Further analyses of the model without dispersal suggest that the amount of vaccination necessary for quasi-eradication (i.e. prevalence < 5%) depends upon the duration that a vaccine grants protection. Vaccination programs are more efficient (i.e. fewer wasted doses) when they focus on younger individuals. However, even with a lifelong vaccine and a closed population, the model suggests that >70% of the calf population would have to be vaccinated every year to reduce the prevalence to less than 1%. If the half-life of the vaccine is less than 5 years, even vaccinating every calf for 50 years may not eradicate BTB. Thus, although vaccination provides a means of controlling BTB prevalence it should be combined with other control measures if eradication is the objective.

Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions.

PubMed

O'Neill, Brian C; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina; Jiang, Leiwen; Pachauri, Shonali; Zigova, Katarina

2010-10-12

Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energy-economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.

The development of a population of 4D pediatric XCAT phantoms for imaging research and optimization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Segars, W. P., E-mail: paul.segars@duke.edu; Norris, Hannah; Sturgeon, Gregory M.

Purpose: We previously developed a set of highly detailed 4D reference pediatric extended cardiac-torso (XCAT) phantoms at ages of newborn, 1, 5, 10, and 15 yr with organ and tissue masses matched to ICRP Publication 89 values. In this work, we extended this reference set to a series of 64 pediatric phantoms of varying age and height and body mass percentiles representative of the public at large. The models will provide a library of pediatric phantoms for optimizing pediatric imaging protocols. Methods: High resolution positron emission tomography-computed tomography data obtained from the Duke University database were reviewed by a practicingmore » experienced radiologist for anatomic regularity. The CT portion of the data was then segmented with manual and semiautomatic methods to form a target model defined using nonuniform rational B-spline surfaces. A multichannel large deformation diffeomorphic metric mapping algorithm was used to calculate the transform from the best age matching pediatric XCAT reference phantom to the patient target. The transform was used to complete the target, filling in the nonsegmented structures and defining models for the cardiac and respiratory motions. The complete phantoms, consisting of thousands of structures, were then manually inspected for anatomical accuracy. The mass for each major tissue was calculated and compared to linearly interpolated ICRP values for different ages. Results: Sixty four new pediatric phantoms were created in this manner. Each model contains the same level of detail as the original XCAT reference phantoms and also includes parameterized models for the cardiac and respiratory motions. For the phantoms that were 10 yr old and younger, we included both sets of reproductive organs. This gave them the capability to simulate both male and female anatomy. With this, the population can be expanded to 92. Wide anatomical variation was clearly seen amongst the phantom models, both in organ shape and size, even for models of the same age and sex. The phantoms can be combined with existing simulation packages to generate realistic pediatric imaging data from different modalities. Conclusions: This work provides a large cohort of highly detailed pediatric phantoms with 4D capabilities of varying age, height, and body mass. The population of phantoms will provide a vital tool with which to optimize 3D and 4D pediatric imaging devices and techniques in terms of image quality and radiation-absorbed dose.« less

Reevaluating Old Stellar Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanway, E. R.; Eldridge, J. J.

2018-05-01

Determining the properties of old stellar populations (those with age >1 Gyr) has long involved the comparison of their integrated light, either in the form of photometry or spectroscopic indexes, with empirical or synthetic templates. Here we reevaluate the properties of old stellar populations using a new set of stellar population synthesis models, designed to incorporate the effects of binary stellar evolution pathways as a function of stellar mass and age. We find that single-aged stellar population models incorporating binary stars, as well as new stellar evolution and atmosphere models, can reproduce the colours and spectral indices observed in both globular clusters and quiescent galaxies. The best fitting model populations are often younger than those derived from older spectral synthesis models, and may also lie at slightly higher metallicities.

Effects of resource quality on the population dynamics of the Indian meal moth Plodia interpunctella and its granulovirus.

PubMed

McVean, Ross I; Sait, Steve M; Thompson, David J; Begon, Mike

2002-03-01

Although the Plodia interpunctella-granulovirus system is one of the most studied models for insect-pathogen interactions, there are relatively few precise data on the dynamics of the virus in coexisting populations of these two organisms. Previous work has suggested that resource quality, in terms of the diet supplied to P. interpunctella, has a strong effect on the population dynamics of host and pathogen. Here we investigate the impact of resource-dependent host patterns of abundance on pathogen dynamics and prevalence. In the laboratory, three populations of P. interpunctella feeding on a good quality food and infected with a granulovirus were compared with three populations also infected with a granulovirus but feeding on poor quality food. Populations feeding on good quality food produced larger adult moths, and had greater numbers of adult moths, healthy larvae, and virus-infected larvae. A higher proportion of larvae in these good quality populations were infected with virus, and adult moths exhibited cyclic fluctuations in abundance, unlike those on poor quality food. This cyclic behaviour was shown to be associated with cycles in the age structure of the larval population. Previous theoretical work suggests that these cycles may result from asymmetric competition between young and old larvae. Cyclic fluctuations in the proportion of infected larvae, that occurred on good, but not on poor quality food, were also shown to be related to cycles in the age structure of the larval population.

Physical Therapy for Neurological Conditions in Geriatric Populations.

PubMed

Carmeli, Eli

2017-01-01

With more of the world's population surviving longer, individuals often face age-related neurology disorders and decline of function that can affect lifestyle and well-being. Despite neurophysiological changes affecting the brain function and structure, the aged brain, in some degree, can learn and relearn due to neuroplasticity. Recent advances in rehabilitation techniques have produced better functional outcomes in age-related neurological conditions. Physical therapy (PT) of the elderly individual focuses in particular on sensory-motor impairments, postural control coordination, and prevention of sarcopenia. Geriatric PT has a significant influence on quality of life, independent living, and life expectancy. However, in many developed and developing countries, the profession of PT is underfunded and understaffed. This article provides a brief overview on (a) age-related disease of central nervous system and (b) the principles, approaches, and doctrines of motor skill learning and point out the most common treatment models that PTs use for neurological patients.

Physical Therapy for Neurological Conditions in Geriatric Populations

PubMed Central

Carmeli, Eli

2017-01-01

With more of the world’s population surviving longer, individuals often face age-related neurology disorders and decline of function that can affect lifestyle and well-being. Despite neurophysiological changes affecting the brain function and structure, the aged brain, in some degree, can learn and relearn due to neuroplasticity. Recent advances in rehabilitation techniques have produced better functional outcomes in age-related neurological conditions. Physical therapy (PT) of the elderly individual focuses in particular on sensory–motor impairments, postural control coordination, and prevention of sarcopenia. Geriatric PT has a significant influence on quality of life, independent living, and life expectancy. However, in many developed and developing countries, the profession of PT is underfunded and understaffed. This article provides a brief overview on (a) age-related disease of central nervous system and (b) the principles, approaches, and doctrines of motor skill learning and point out the most common treatment models that PTs use for neurological patients. PMID:29270402

Low but significant genetic differentiation underlies biologically meaningful phenotypic divergence in a large Atlantic salmon population.

PubMed

Aykanat, Tutku; Johnston, Susan E; Orell, Panu; Niemelä, Eero; Erkinaro, Jaakko; Primmer, Craig R

2015-10-01

Despite decades of research assessing the genetic structure of natural populations, the biological meaning of low yet significant genetic divergence often remains unclear due to a lack of associated phenotypic and ecological information. At the same time, structured populations with low genetic divergence and overlapping boundaries can potentially provide excellent models to study adaptation and reproductive isolation in cases where high-resolution genetic markers and relevant phenotypic and life history information are available. Here, we combined single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based population inference with extensive phenotypic and life history data to identify potential biological mechanisms driving fine-scale subpopulation differentiation in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) from the Teno River, a major salmon river in Europe. Two sympatrically occurring subpopulations had low but significant genetic differentiation (FST  = 0.018) and displayed marked differences in the distribution of life history strategies, including variation in juvenile growth rate, age at maturity and size within age classes. Large, late-maturing individuals were virtually absent from one of the two subpopulations, and there were significant differences in juvenile growth rates and size at age after oceanic migration between individuals in the respective subpopulations. Our findings suggest that different evolutionary processes affect each subpopulation and that hybridization and subsequent selection may maintain low genetic differentiation without hindering adaptive divergence. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Age, differential growth and mortality rates in unexploited populations of Florida gar, an apex predator in the Florida Everglades

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murie, D.J.; Parkyn, D.C.; Nico, L.G.; Herod, J.J.; Loftus, W.F.

2009-01-01

Florida gar, Lepisosteus platyrhincus DeKay, were sampled in two canal systems in south Florida during 2000-2001 to estimate age, growth and mortality as part of the Everglades ecosystem-restoration effort. Tamiami (C-4) and L-31W canal systems had direct connections to natural wetlands of the Everglades and harboured large Florida gar populations. Of 476 fish aged, maximum ages were 19 and 10years for females and males, respectively. Maximum sizes were also larger for females compared with males (817 vs 602 mm total length). Overall, female Florida gar from both Tamiami and L-31W were larger at age than males from L-31W that, in turn, were larger at any given age than males from Tamiami. Females also had lower rates of annual mortality (Z = 0.21) than males from L-31W (Z = 0.31) or males from Tamiami (Z = 0.54). As a large and long-lived apex predator in the Everglades, Florida gar may structure lower trophic levels. Regional- and sex-specific population parameters for Florida gar will contribute to the simulation models designed to evaluate Everglades restoration alternatives. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

An Age-Structured Extension to the Vectorial Capacity Model

PubMed Central

Novoseltsev, Vasiliy N.; Michalski, Anatoli I.; Novoseltseva, Janna A.; Yashin, Anatoliy I.; Carey, James R.; Ellis, Alicia M.

2012-01-01

Background Vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number (R0) have been instrumental in structuring thinking about vector-borne pathogen transmission and how best to prevent the diseases they cause. One of the more important simplifying assumptions of these models is age-independent vector mortality. A growing body of evidence indicates that insect vectors exhibit age-dependent mortality, which can have strong and varied affects on pathogen transmission dynamics and strategies for disease prevention. Methodology/Principal Findings Based on survival analysis we derived new equations for vectorial capacity and R0 that are valid for any pattern of age-dependent (or age–independent) vector mortality and explore the behavior of the models across various mortality patterns. The framework we present (1) lays the groundwork for an extension and refinement of the vectorial capacity paradigm by introducing an age-structured extension to the model, (2) encourages further research on the actuarial dynamics of vectors in particular and the relationship of vector mortality to pathogen transmission in general, and (3) provides a detailed quantitative basis for understanding the relative impact of reductions in vector longevity compared to other vector-borne disease prevention strategies. Conclusions/Significance Accounting for age-dependent vector mortality in estimates of vectorial capacity and R0 was most important when (1) vector densities are relatively low and the pattern of mortality can determine whether pathogen transmission will persist; i.e., determines whether R0 is above or below 1, (2) vector population growth rate is relatively low and there are complex interactions between birth and death that differ fundamentally from birth-death relationships with age-independent mortality, and (3) the vector exhibits complex patterns of age-dependent mortality and R0∼1. A limiting factor in the construction and evaluation of new age-dependent mortality models is the paucity of data characterizing vector mortality patterns, particularly for free ranging vectors in the field. PMID:22724022

Persistence versus extinction for a class of discrete-time structured population models.

PubMed

Jin, Wen; Smith, Hal L; Thieme, Horst R

2016-03-01

We provide sharp conditions distinguishing persistence and extinction for a class of discrete-time dynamical systems on the positive cone of an ordered Banach space generated by a map which is the sum of a positive linear contraction A and a nonlinear perturbation G that is compact and differentiable at zero in the direction of the cone. Such maps arise as year-to-year projections of population age, stage, or size-structure distributions in population biology where typically A has to do with survival and individual development and G captures the effects of reproduction. The threshold distinguishing persistence and extinction is the principal eigenvalue of (II−A)(−1)G'(0) provided by the Krein-Rutman Theorem, and persistence is described in terms of associated eigenfunctionals. Our results significantly extend earlier persistence results of the last two authors which required more restrictive conditions on G. They are illustrated by application of the results to a plant model with a seed bank.

Insulin resistance index (HOMA-IR) levels in a general adult population: curves percentile by gender and age. The EPIRCE study.

PubMed

Gayoso-Diz, Pilar; Otero-Gonzalez, Alfonso; Rodriguez-Alvarez, María Xosé; Gude, Francisco; Cadarso-Suarez, Carmen; García, Fernando; De Francisco, Angel

2011-10-01

To describe the distribution of HOMA-IR levels in a general nondiabetic population and its relationships with metabolic and lifestyles characteristics. Cross-sectional study. Data from 2246 nondiabetic adults in a random Spanish population sample, stratified by age and gender, were analyzed. Assessments included a structured interview, physical examination, and blood sampling. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to assess the effect of lifestyle habits and clinical and demographic measurements on HOMA-IR. Multivariate GAMs and quantile regression analyses of HOMA-IR were carried out separately in men and women. This study shows refined estimations of HOMA-IR levels by age, body mass index, and waist circumference in men and women. HOMA-IR levels were higher in men (2.06) than women (1.95) (P=0.047). In women, but not men, HOMA-IR and age showed a significant nonlinear association (P=0.006), with increased levels above fifty years of age. We estimated HOMA-IR curves percentile in men and women. Age- and gender-adjusted HOMA-IR levels are reported in a representative Spanish adult non-diabetic population. There are gender-specific differences, with increased levels in women over fifty years of age that may be related with changes in body fat distribution after menopause. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic consequences of polygyny and social structure in an Indian fruit bat, Cynopterus sphinx. II. Variance in male mating success and effective population size.

PubMed

Storz, J F; Bhat, H R; Kunz, T H

2001-06-01

Variance in reproductive success is a primary determinant of genetically effective population size (Ne), and thus has important implications for the role of genetic drift in the evolutionary dynamics of animal taxa characterized by polygynous mating systems. Here we report the results of a study designed to test the hypothesis that polygynous mating results in significantly reduced Ne in an age-structured population. This hypothesis was tested in a natural population of a harem-forming fruit bat, Cynopterus sphinx (Chiroptera: Pteropodidae), in western India. The influence of the mating system on the ratio of variance Ne to adult census number (N) was assessed using a mathematical model designed for age-structured populations that incorporated demographic and genetic data. Male mating success was assessed by means of direct and indirect paternity analysis using 10-locus microsatellite genotypes of adults and progeny from two consecutive breeding periods (n = 431 individually marked bats). Combined results from both analyses were used to infer the effective number of male parents in each breeding period. The relative proportion of successfully reproducing males and the size distribution of paternal sibships comprising each offspring cohort revealed an extremely high within-season variance in male mating success (up to 9.2 times higher than Poisson expectation). The resultant estimate of Ne/N for the C. sphinx study population was 0.42. As a result of polygynous mating, the predicted rate of drift (1/2Ne per generation) was 17.6% higher than expected from a Poisson distribution of male mating success. However, the estimated Ne/N was well within the 0.25-0.75 range expected for age-structured populations under normal demographic conditions. The life-history schedule of C. sphinx is characterized by a disproportionately short sexual maturation period scaled to adult life span. Consequently, the influence of polygynous mating on Ne/N is mitigated by the extensive overlap of generations. In C. sphinx, turnover of breeding males between seasons ensures a broader sampling of the adult male gamete pool than expected from the variance in mating success within a single breeding period.

Developing recreational harvest regulations for an unexploited lake trout population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lenker, Melissa A; Weidel, Brian C.; Jensen, Olaf P.; Solomon, Christopher T.

2016-01-01

Developing fishing regulations for previously unexploited populations presents numerous challenges, many of which stem from a scarcity of baseline information about abundance, population productivity, and expected angling pressure. We used simulation models to test the effect of six management strategies (catch and release; trophy, minimum, and maximum length limits; and protected and exploited slot length limits) on an unexploited population of Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush in Follensby Pond, a 393-ha lake located in New York State’s Adirondack Park. We combined field and literature data and mark–recapture abundance estimates to parameterize an age-structured population model and used the model to assess the effects of each management strategy on abundance, catch per unit effort (CPUE), and harvest over a range of angler effort (0–2,000 angler-days/year). Lake Trout density (3.5 fish/ha for fish ≥ age 13, the estimated age at maturity) was similar to densities observed in other unexploited systems, but growth rate was relatively slow. Maximum harvest occurred at levels of effort ≤ 1,000 angler-days/year in all the scenarios considered. Regulations that permitted harvest of large postmaturation fish, such as New York’s standard Lake Trout minimum size limit or a trophy size limit, resulted in low harvest and high angler CPUE. Regulations that permitted harvest of small and sometimes immature fish, such as a protected slot or maximum size limit, allowed high harvest but resulted in low angler CPUE and produced rapid declines in harvest with increases in effort beyond the effort consistent with maximum yield. Management agencies can use these results to match regulations to management goals and to assess the risks of different management options for unexploited Lake Trout populations and other fish species with similar life history traits.

Demographic Ageing of the South African Population: Past (1945-1985) and Expected Trends (1985-2035). Report S-190.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hofmeyr, B. E.; Mostert, W. P.

This report presents demographic data for four racial populations in South Africa (Blacks, Whites, Coloureds, and Asians) and examines trends in the aging of each of these populations. The age structure of a population is determined most directly by fertility and mortality. The findings of this report support a general theory to the effect that…

Interactions between social structure, demography, and transmission determine disease persistence in primates.

PubMed

Ryan, Sadie J; Jones, James H; Dobson, Andrew P

2013-01-01

Catastrophic declines in African great ape populations due to disease outbreaks have been reported in recent years, yet we rarely hear of similar disease impacts for the more solitary Asian great apes, or for smaller primates. We used an age-structured model of different primate social systems to illustrate that interactions between social structure and demography create 'dynamic constraints' on the pathogens that can establish and persist in primate host species with different social systems. We showed that this varies by disease transmission mode. Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) require high rates of transmissibility to persist within a primate population. In particular, for a unimale social system, STIs require extremely high rates of transmissibility for persistence, and remain at extremely low prevalence in small primates, but this is less constrained in longer-lived, larger-bodied primates. In contrast, aerosol transmitted infections (ATIs) spread and persist at high prevalence in medium and large primates with moderate transmissibility;, establishment and persistence in small-bodied primates require higher relative rates of transmissibility. Intragroup contact structure - the social network - creates different constraints for different transmission modes, and our model underscores the importance of intragroup contacts on infection prior to intergroup movement in a structured population. When alpha males dominate sexual encounters, the resulting disease transmission dynamics differ from when social interactions are dominated by mother-infant grooming events, for example. This has important repercussions for pathogen spread across populations. Our framework reveals essential social and demographic characteristics of primates that predispose them to different disease risks that will be important for disease management and conservation planning for protected primate populations.

Modelling the factor structure of the Child Depression Inventory in a population of apparently healthy adolescents in Nigeria.

PubMed

Olorunju, Samson Bamidele; Akpa, Onoja Matthew; Afolabi, Rotimi Felix

2018-01-01

Childhood and adolescent depression is common and often persists into adulthood with negative implications for school performances, peer relationship and behavioural functioning. The Child Depression Inventory (CDI) has been used to assess depression among adolescents in many countries including Nigeria but it is uncertain if the theoretical structure of CDI appropriately fits the experiences of adolescents in Nigeria. This study assessed varying theoretical modelling structure of the CDI in a population of apparently healthy adolescents in Benue state, Nigeria. Data was extracted on CDI scale and demographic information from a total of 1, 963 adolescents (aged 10-19 years), who participated in a state wide study assessing adolescent psychosocial functioning. In addition to descriptive statistics and reliability tests, Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and Confirmatory Factor analysis (CFA) were used to model the underlying factor structure and its adequacy. The suggested new model was compared with existing CDI models as well as the CDI's original theoretical model. A model is considered better, if it has minimum Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA<0.05), Minimum value of Discrepancy (CMIN/DF<3.0) and Akaike information criteria. All analyses were performed at 95% confidence level, using the version 21 of AMOS and the R software. Participants were 14.7±2.1 years and mostly male (54.3%), from Monogamous homes (67.9%) and lived in urban areas (52.2%). The measure of the overall internal consistency of the 2-factor CDI was α = 0.84. The 2-factor model had the minimum RMSEA (0.044), CMIN/DF (2.87) and least AIC (1037.996) compared to the other five CDI models. The child depression inventory has a 2-factor structure in a non-clinical general population of adolescents in Nigeria. Future use of the CDI in related setting may consider the 2-factor model.

[Factor structure of the German version of the BIS/BAS Scales in a population-based sample].

PubMed

Müller, A; Smits, D; Claes, L; de Zwaan, M

2013-02-01

The Behavioural Inhibition System/Behavioural Activation System Scale (BIS/BAS-Scales) developed by Carver and White 1 is a self-rating instrument to assess the dispositional sensitivity to punishment and reward. The present work aims to examine the factor structure of the German version of the BIS/BAS-Scales. In a large German population-based sample (n = 1881) the model fit of several factor models was tested by using confirmatory factor analyses. The best model fit was found for the 5-factor model with two BIS (anxiety, fear) and three BAS (drive, reward responsiveness, fun seeking) scales, whereas the BIS-fear, the BAS-reward responsiveness, and the BAS-fun seeking subscales showed low internal consistency. The BIS/BAS scales were negatively correlated with age, and women reported higher BIS subscale scores than men. Confirmatory factor analyses suggest a 5-factor model. However, due to the low internal reliability of some of the subscales the use of this model is questionable. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Population age structure and asset returns: an empirical investigation.

PubMed

Poterba, J M

1998-10-01

"This paper investigates the association between population age structure, particularly the share of the population in the 'prime saving years' 45-60, and the returns on stocks and bonds. The paper is motivated by the claim that the aging of the 'Baby Boom' cohort in the United States is a key factor in explaining the recent rise in asset values. It also addresses the associated claim that asset prices will decline when this large cohort reaches retirement age and begins to reduce its asset holdings. This paper begins by considering household age-asset accumulation profiles. Data from the Survey of Consumer Finances suggest that while cross-sectional age-wealth profiles peak for households in their early 60s, cohort data on the asset ownership of the same households show a much less pronounced peak.... The paper then considers the historical relationship between demographic structure and real returns on Treasury bills, long-term government bonds, and corporate stock. The results do not suggest any robust relationship between demographic structure and asset returns.... The paper concludes by discussing factors such as international capital flows and forward-looking behavior on the part of market participants that could weaken the relationship between age structure and asset returns in a single nation." excerpt

Effects of stand age on the demography of a temperate forest herb in post-agricultural forests.

PubMed

Jacquemyn, Hans; Brys, Rein

2008-12-01

Changes in land use have been shown to have profound effects on forest plant community structure and diversity. Dispersal limitation has been invoked as a major factor hampering colonization of forest plant species, while seed-sowing experiments and performance observations have provided some evidence for recruitment limitation determining forest plant distribution in post-agricultural forests. However, most of these studies were relatively short-term, and very few studies have investigated long-term growth rates of populations occurring in recent and ancient forests. In this study, matrix models using demographic data collected for four consecutive years were used to study the effect of forest age on population dynamics of the temperate forest herb Primula elatior. A life table response experiment (LTRE) and elasticity analysis were used to analyze the effect of forest age on population growth rate (lambda) and to decompose the effect of forest age on lambda into contributions from each matrix element. Population growth increased logarithmically with increasing forest age. Bootstrap analyses showed that populations located in very recent forests (< 50-years-old) had growth rates that were significantly < 1, whereas populations located in forests > 150-years-old had growth rates that were significantly > 1. Summed elasticities for individual growth significantly decreased with increasing forest age, whereas summed elasticities for survival and fertility significantly increased with increasing forest age. The LTRE analysis showed that the increase in lambda with increasing forest age was mainly due to increased seedling and juvenile growth and increased juvenile and adult survival. Our results indicate that past agricultural land use has long-lasting effects on the demography of forest herbs and may provide an additional mechanistic explanation for the poor colonization capacity of many forest herbs in post-agricultural forests.

Augmenting superpopulation capture-recapture models with population assignment data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wen, Zhi; Pollock, Kenneth; Nichols, James; Waser, Peter

2011-01-01

Ecologists applying capture-recapture models to animal populations sometimes have access to additional information about individuals' populations of origin (e.g., information about genetics, stable isotopes, etc.). Tests that assign an individual's genotype to its most likely source population are increasingly used. Here we show how to augment a superpopulation capture-recapture model with such information. We consider a single superpopulation model without age structure, and split each entry probability into separate components due to births in situ and immigration. We show that it is possible to estimate these two probabilities separately. We first consider the case of perfect information about population of origin, where we can distinguish individuals born in situ from immigrants with certainty. Then we consider the more realistic case of imperfect information, where we use genetic or other information to assign probabilities to each individual's origin as in situ or outside the population. We use a resampling approach to impute the true population of origin from imperfect assignment information. The integration of data on population of origin with capture-recapture data allows us to determine the contributions of immigration and in situ reproduction to the growth of the population, an issue of importance to ecologists. We illustrate our new models with capture-recapture and genetic assignment data from a population of banner-tailed kangaroo rats Dipodomys spectabilis in Arizona.

On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics

PubMed Central

Krkošek, Martin; Drake, John M.

2014-01-01

Critical slowing down (CSD) reflects the decline in resilience of equilibria near a bifurcation and may reveal early warning signals (EWS) of ecological phase transitions. We studied CSD in the recruitment dynamics of 120 stocks of three Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) species in relation to critical transitions in fishery models. Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) exhibited increased variability and autocorrelation in populations that had a growth parameter, r, close to zero, consistent with EWS of extinction. However, models and data for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) indicate that portfolio effects from heterogeneity in age-at-maturity may obscure EWS. Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) show intermediate results. The data do not reveal EWS of Ricker-type bifurcations that cause oscillations and chaos at high r. These results not only provide empirical support for CSD in some ecological systems, but also indicate that portfolio effects of age structure may conceal EWS of some critical transitions. PMID:24759855

Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data.

PubMed

Prem, Kiesha; Cook, Alex R; Jit, Mark

2017-09-01

Heterogeneities in contact networks have a major effect in determining whether a pathogen can become epidemic or persist at endemic levels. Epidemic models that determine which interventions can successfully prevent an outbreak need to account for social structure and mixing patterns. Contact patterns vary across age and locations (e.g. home, work, and school), and including them as predictors in transmission dynamic models of pathogens that spread socially will improve the models' realism. Data from population-based contact diaries in eight European countries from the POLYMOD study were projected to 144 other countries using a Bayesian hierarchical model that estimated the proclivity of age-and-location-specific contact patterns for the countries, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Household level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for nine lower-income countries and socio-demographic factors from several on-line databases for 152 countries were used to quantify similarity of countries to estimate contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations for countries for which no contact data are available, accounting for demographic structure, household structure where known, and a variety of metrics including workforce participation and school enrolment. Contacts are highly assortative with age across all countries considered, but pronounced regional differences in the age-specific contacts at home were noticeable, with more inter-generational contacts in Asian countries than in other settings. Moreover, there were variations in contact patterns by location, with work-place contacts being least assortative. These variations led to differences in the effect of social distancing measures in an age structured epidemic model. Contacts have an important role in transmission dynamic models that use contact rates to characterize the spread of contact-transmissible diseases. This study provides estimates of mixing patterns for societies for which contact data such as POLYMOD are not yet available.

Psychometric Properties of the Bermond-Vorst Alexithymia Questionnaire (BVAQ) in the General Population and a Clinical Population.

PubMed

de Vroege, Lars; Emons, Wilco H M; Sijtsma, Klaas; van der Feltz-Cornelis, Christina M

2018-01-01

The Bermond-Vorst Alexithymia Questionnaire (BVAQ) has been validated in student samples and small clinical samples, but not in the general population; thus, representative general-population norms are lacking. We examined the factor structure of the BVAQ in Longitudinal Internet Studies for the Social Sciences panel data from the Dutch general population ( N  = 974). Factor analyses revealed a first-order five-factor model and a second-order two-factor model. However, in the second-order model, the factor interpreted as analyzing ability loaded on both the affective factor and the cognitive factor. Further analyses showed that the first-order test scores are more reliable than the second-order test scores. External and construct validity were addressed by comparing BVAQ scores with a clinical sample of patients suffering from somatic symptom and related disorder (SSRD) ( N  = 235). BVAQ scores differed significantly between the general population and patients suffering from SSRD, suggesting acceptable construct validity. Age was positively associated with alexithymia. Males showed higher levels of alexithymia. The BVAQ is a reliable alternative measure for measuring alexithymia.

How neighborhood structural and institutional features can shape neighborhood social connectedness: a multilevel study of adolescent perceptions.

PubMed

Lenzi, Michela; Vieno, Alessio; Santinello, Massimo; Perkins, Douglas D

2013-06-01

According to the norms and collective efficacy model, the levels of social connectedness within a local community are a function of neighborhood structural characteristics, such as socioeconomic status and ethnic composition. The current work aims to determine whether neighborhood structural and institutional features (neighborhood wealth, percentage of immigrants, population density, opportunities for activities and meeting places) have an impact on different components of neighborhood social connectedness (intergenerational closure, trust and reciprocity, neighborhood-based friendship and personal relationships with neighbors). The study involved a representative sample of 389 early and middle adolescents aged 11-15 years old, coming from 31 Italian neighborhoods. Using hierarchical linear modeling, our findings showed that high population density, ethnic diversity, and physical and social disorder might represent obstacles for the creation of social ties within the neighborhood. On the contrary, the presence of opportunities for activities and meeting places in the neighborhood was associated with higher levels of social connectedness among residents.

Reconstructing populations dynamics: Mortality and recruitment of the southern geoduck Panopea abbreviata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaidman, Paula C.; Morsan, Enrique

2018-05-01

In the development of management measures for sustainable fisheries, estimating the natural mortality rate and recruitment are fundamental. In northern Patagonia, Argentina, the southern geoduck, Panopea abbreviata, a long-lived clam that forms spatially disjunct subpopulations, supports an unregulated fishery. In this study, we estimate natural mortality. We studied the age structure of beds within the northern Patagonia gulfs, San Matías Gulf (SMG) and San Jose Gulf (SJG), and we estimated a time series for back-reconstructed recruitment to explore spatial coherence in relation to local oceanographic conditions and to elucidate its population dynamics. We constructed a cumulative frequency distribution of the age of dead shells collected and used the exponential and Weibull models to model mortality. Live geoducks were sampled from six populations between 2000 and 2006. Age-frequency distributions and mortality models were used to back-calculate the time series of recruitment for each population. The recruitment time series was analysed using continuous wavelet transform. The value of natural mortality estimated by the exponential model was 0.054 years-1, whereas those estimated by the Weibull model were α = 0.00085 years-1 and β = 2.1. For the latter, M values for cohorts were 0.01 for 10 years, 0.02 for 20 years, 0.04 for 30 years and 0.05 for 40 years. The Weibull model was observed to be the best fit to the data. The natural mortality rate of P. abbreviata estimated in this study was lower than that estimated in a previous work for populations from SMG. The back-calculated time series for recruitment demonstrated considerable yearly variation, suggesting that local conditions have an important role in recruitment regulation. At a decadal temporal scale, a clear increasing recruitment trend was evident over the last 20 years in all populations. Populations in SMG were settled >60 years ago. In contrast, no individuals older than 30 years were observed in the populations from SJG. P. abbreviata has several characteristics, such as longevity and low instantaneous natural mortality rate, which require attention in any resource planning. However, this species also has positive characteristics for fishery development, as historical recruitment trends indicate that populations are expanding and are part of a widely distributed metapopulation, suggesting that sustainable exploitation is possible.

Modeling the hepatitis A epidemiological transition in Brazil and Mexico

PubMed Central

Van Effelterre, Thierry; Guignard, Adrienne; Marano, Cinzia; Rojas, Rosalba; Jacobsen, Kathryn H.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: Many low- to middle-income countries have completed or are in the process of transitioning from high or intermediate to low endemicity for hepatitis A virus (HAV). Because the risk of severe hepatitis A disease increases with age at infection, decreased incidence that leaves older children and adults susceptible to HAV infection may actually increase the population-level burden of disease from HAV. Mathematical models can be helpful for projecting future epidemiological profiles for HAV. Methods: An age-specific deterministic, dynamic compartmental transmission model with stratification by setting (rural versus urban) was calibrated with country-specific data on demography, urbanization, and seroprevalence of anti-HAV antibodies. HAV transmission was modeled as a function of setting-specific access to safe water. The model was then used to project various HAV-related epidemiological outcomes in Brazil and in Mexico from 1950 to 2050. Results: The projected epidemiological outcomes were qualitatively similar in the 2 countries. The age at the midpoint of population immunity (AMPI) increased considerably and the mean age of symptomatic HAV cases shifted from childhood to early adulthood. The projected overall incidence rate of HAV infections decreased by about two thirds as safe water access improved. However, the incidence rate of symptomatic HAV infections remained roughly the same over the projection period. The incidence rates of HAV infections (all and symptomatic alone) were projected to become similar in rural and urban settings in the next decades. Conclusion: This model featuring population age structure, urbanization and access to safe water as key contributors to the epidemiological transition for HAV was previously validated with data from Thailand and fits equally well with data from Latin American countries. Assuming no introduction of a vaccination program over the projection period, both Brazil and Mexico were projected to experience a continued decrease in HAV incidence rates without any substantial decrease in the incidence rates of symptomatic HAV infections. PMID:28481680

Modeling the hepatitis A epidemiological transition in Brazil and Mexico.

PubMed

Van Effelterre, Thierry; Guignard, Adrienne; Marano, Cinzia; Rojas, Rosalba; Jacobsen, Kathryn H

2017-08-03

Many low- to middle-income countries have completed or are in the process of transitioning from high or intermediate to low endemicity for hepatitis A virus (HAV). Because the risk of severe hepatitis A disease increases with age at infection, decreased incidence that leaves older children and adults susceptible to HAV infection may actually increase the population-level burden of disease from HAV. Mathematical models can be helpful for projecting future epidemiological profiles for HAV. An age-specific deterministic, dynamic compartmental transmission model with stratification by setting (rural versus urban) was calibrated with country-specific data on demography, urbanization, and seroprevalence of anti-HAV antibodies. HAV transmission was modeled as a function of setting-specific access to safe water. The model was then used to project various HAV-related epidemiological outcomes in Brazil and in Mexico from 1950 to 2050. The projected epidemiological outcomes were qualitatively similar in the 2 countries. The age at the midpoint of population immunity (AMPI) increased considerably and the mean age of symptomatic HAV cases shifted from childhood to early adulthood. The projected overall incidence rate of HAV infections decreased by about two thirds as safe water access improved. However, the incidence rate of symptomatic HAV infections remained roughly the same over the projection period. The incidence rates of HAV infections (all and symptomatic alone) were projected to become similar in rural and urban settings in the next decades. This model featuring population age structure, urbanization and access to safe water as key contributors to the epidemiological transition for HAV was previously validated with data from Thailand and fits equally well with data from Latin American countries. Assuming no introduction of a vaccination program over the projection period, both Brazil and Mexico were projected to experience a continued decrease in HAV incidence rates without any substantial decrease in the incidence rates of symptomatic HAV infections.

Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density-dependence in eastern brook trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bassar, Ronald D.; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Nislow, Keith H.; Whiteley, Andrew R.

2016-01-01

Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density-independent) factors and intrinsic (density-dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density-dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) versus density-dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10-year capture-mark-recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete-time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density-dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate-driven environmental change.

Obsessive-compulsive symptoms in a normative Chinese sample of youth: prevalence, symptom dimensions, and factor structure of the Leyton Obsessional Inventory--Child Version.

PubMed

Sun, Jing; Boschen, Mark J; Farrell, Lara J; Buys, Nicholas; Li, Zhan-Jiang

2014-08-01

Chinese adolescents face life stresses from multiple sources, with higher levels of stress predictive of adolescent mental health outcomes, including in the area of obsessive-compulsive disorders (OCD). Valid assessment of OCD among this age group is therefore a critical need in China. This study aims to standardise the Chinese version of the Leyton short version scale for adolescents of secondary schools in order to assess this condition. Stratified randomly selected adolescents were selected from four high schools located in Beijing, China. The Chinese version of the Leyton scale was administered to 3221 secondary school students aged between 12 and 18 years. A high response rate was achieved, with 3185 adolescents responding to the survey (98.5 percent). Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) extracted four factors from the scale: compulsive thoughts, concerns of cleanliness, lucky number, repetitiveness and repeated checking. The four-factor structures were confirmed using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). Overall the four-factor structure had a good model fit and high levels of reliability for each individual dimension and reasonable content validity. Invariance analyses in unconstrained, factor loading, and error variance models demonstrated that the Leyton scale is invariant in relation to the presence or absence OCD, age and gender. Discriminant validity analysis demonstrated that the four-factor structure scale also had excellent ability to differentiate between OCD and non-OCD students, male and female students, and age groups. The dataset was a non-clinical sample of high school students, rather than a sample of individuals with OCD. Future research may examine symptom structure in clinical populations to assess whether this structure fits into both clinical and community population. The structure derived from the Leyton short version scale in a non-clinical secondary school sample of adolescents, suggests that a four-factor solution can be utilised as a screening tool to assess adolescents׳ psychopathological symptoms in the area of OCD in mainland Chinese non-clinical secondary school students. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[The demographic aging of the Austrian population: on the long-term changes in the age structure in Austria].

PubMed

Kytir, J

1995-01-01

"The Austrian population is presently in the middle of its age structure transition which started with World War I and will continue until the 40s of the next century. Within this time period the number of people aged 60 years or over will increase from about half a million to 2.8 million (1995: 1.6 million) and the share of the elderly will mount from about 9 percent to more than 35 percent (1995: 20 percent). The present article points out the demographic causes for population aging asking whether high fertility and/or high numbers of migrants can stop the aging process. Different measurements of demographic aging in Austria (share of various age groups, mean age and median age, dependency ratios, several aging indices) are calculated for the time period 1869 to 2050. Special attention is paid to regional differences within Austria and to changes of the sex ratio at older ages over time." (EXCERPT)

Determining the Ages and Distances of 4 Open Clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawczynec, Erica A.; James D. Armstrong, Joe M. Ritter, Jeff Kuhn

2018-01-01

The study of nearby young open clusters can give insight into star formation and potentially the local rate of metal enrichment. Presented is a BVRI photometric analysis of 4 open clusters; NGC 2509, NGC 2483, NGC 2482, and NGC 6705, in order to reevaluate previously published ages and distances using modern CCD photometry, and newer stellar models. Observations were obtained from the Cerro Tololo node of the Las Cumbres Observatory 1.0 meter network. Color magnitude diagrams were compared to modeled isochrones and the updated ages and distances determined. An interesting stellar association was found in the color magnitude diagram of NGC 6705. The structure is suggestive of two epochs of stellar formation. Members of this structure were evaluated using the Gaia Archive in order to explore the possibility of a heterogeneous population. The status of NGC 2483 as an open cluster has been debated; however, it has been noted that there is a high concentration of Be stars found in the region. It is concluded that NGC 2483 is an open cluster.

Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations.

PubMed

Fournié, Guillaume; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Bendrey, Robin

2017-02-01

Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella . Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis , the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen.

Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, Dirk U.; Bendrey, Robin

2017-01-01

Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella. Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis, the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen. PMID:28386446

Historical habitat connectivity affects current genetic structure in a grassland species.

PubMed

Münzbergová, Z; Cousins, S A O; Herben, T; Plačková, I; Mildén, M; Ehrlén, J

2013-01-01

Many recent studies have explored the effects of present and past landscape structure on species distribution and diversity. However, we know little about the effects of past landscape structure on distribution of genetic diversity within and between populations of a single species. Here we describe the relationship between present and past landscape structure (landscape connectivity and habitat size estimated from historical maps) and current genetic structure in a perennial herb, Succisa pratensis. We used allozymes as co-dominant markers to estimate genetic diversity and deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in 31 populations distributed within a 5 km(2) agricultural landscape. The results showed that current genetic diversity of populations was related to habitat suitability, habitat age, habitat size and habitat connectivity in the past. The effects of habitat age and past connectivity on genetic diversity were in most cases also significant after taking the current landscape structure into account. Moreover, current genetic similarity between populations was affected by past connectivity after accounting for current landscape structure. In both cases, the oldest time layer (1850) was the most informative. Most populations showed heterozygote excess, indicating disequilibrium due to recent gene flow or selection against homozygotes. These results suggest that habitat age and past connectivity are important determinants of distribution of genetic diversity between populations at a scale of a few kilometres. Landscape history may significantly contribute to our understanding of distribution of current genetic structure within species and the genetic structure may be used to better understand landscape history, even at a small scale. © 2012 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Managing the Cayo Santiago rhesus macaque population: The role of density.

PubMed

Hernandez-Pacheco, Raisa; Delgado, Diana L; Rawlins, Richard G; Kessler, Matthew J; Ruiz-Lambides, Angelina V; Maldonado, Elizabeth; Sabat, Alberto M

2016-01-01

Cayo Santiago is the oldest continuously operating free-ranging rhesus monkey colony in the world. Population control of this colony has historically been carried out by periodic live capture and removal of animals. However, the effect of such a strategy on the size, growth rate, age structure, and sex ratio of the population has not been analyzed. This study reviews past removal data and uses a population projection model to simulate the effects of different removal schemes based on Cayo Santiago demographic data from 2000-2012. The model incorporates negative density-dependence in female fertility, as well as male and female survival rates, to determine the population-level effects of selective removal by age and sex. Modeling revealed that removal of sexually immature individuals has negligible effects on the population dynamics explaining why with an initial population of 1309 in 2000 and annual removals of immature monkeys a mean annual population growth rate of 12% and a final population size of ∼1,435 individuals by 2012 (∼0.009 animal/m(2) ) was observed. With no removals, the population is expected to exhibit dampened oscillations until reaching equilibrium at ∼1,690 individuals (∼0.0111 animal/m(2) ) in 2,100. In contrast, removal of adult females (≥4 yrs) would significantly reduce the population size, but would also promote an increase in population growth rate due to density feedback. A maximum annual production of 275 births is expected when 550 adult females are present in the population. Sensitivity analyses showed that removing females, in contrast to controlling their fertility through invasive treatments would contribute the most to changes in population growth rate. Given the density compensation on fertility, stabilizing the population would require removing ∼80% of the current population of adult females. This study highlights the importance of addressing the population-level density effects, as well as sensitivity analyses, to optimize management strategies. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Population viability of the Snake River chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emlen, John M.

1995-01-01

In the presence of historical data, population viability models of intermediate complexity can be parameterized and utilized to project the consequences of various management actions for endangered species. A general stochastic population dynamics model with density feedback, age structure, and autocorrelated environmental fluctuations was constructed and parameterized for best fit over 36 years of spring chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) redd count data in five Idaho index streams. Simulations indicate that persistence of the Snake River spring chinook salmon population depends primarily on density-independent mortality. Improvement of rearing habitat, predator control, reduced fishing pressure, and improved dam passage all would alleviate density-independent mortality. The current value of the Ricker α should provide for a continuation of the status quo. A recovery of the population to 1957–1961 levels within 100 years would require an approximately 75% increase in survival and (or) fecundity. Manipulations of the Ricker β are likely to have little or no effect on persistence versus extinction, but considerable influence on population size.

[Population change and social organization].

PubMed

Tu, J C

1986-06-01

This paper, published in Taiwan in June, 1986, studies the impact of demographic changes on social organization through stable population theory as applied to the USA. The stable population model indicates a constant age differential between death ratio and birth ratio maintained for a period of time in a given population. Since the 1950's, the population growth rate in the US has been 1.5%; social security tax revenue should increase 50% to maintain equilibrium. According to the US Census Bureau, in 1940, 11 people in 100 were age 65 or over; in 1980, 19 per 100; and 1 estimate places 32 in 100 over 65 in the year 2030. In 90 years the proportion of senior citizens will increase 3 times; social security taxes should consequently also increase 3 times. The stable population model would mean that social security tax should double its current rate to maintain equilibrium. However, based on the actual change in the population's age structure, social security tax should in fact increase at least 3 times. From 1940 to the present, social security tax revenue has already increased 3 times. Turning to education, in 1961, 4.39 million babies were born in the US. By the mid-1970's, births had slowed to an annual average of 3 million. The decrease in number of university students and posts available to Ph.Ds follows the birth rate change of 20 years earlier. Many graduate institutions will be influenced by this decrease in births. From another perspective, the birth rate decrease has also reduced the educational burden on society, and should provide more opportunities and resources. However, in the American educational system, research opportunities are determined by teaching positions which are dependent upon university enrollment figures. The US Census Bureau predicts that enrollment rates must double in order to compensate for the decrease in university age population.

Supplemental materials for the analysis of capture-recapture data for polar bears in Western Hudson Bay, Canada, 1984-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regehr, Eric V.; Lunn, Nicholas J.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, Ian

2007-01-01

Regehr and others (2007, Survival and population size of polar bears in western Hudson Bay in relation to earlier sea ice breakup: Journal of Wildlife Management, v. 71, no. 8) evaluated survival in relation to climatic conditions and estimated population size for polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in western Hudson Bay, Canada. Here, we provide supplemental materials for the analyses in Regehr and others (2007). We demonstrate how tag-return data from harvested polar bears were used to adjust estimates of total survival for human-caused mortality. We describe the sex and age composition of the capture and harvest samples and provide results for goodness-of-fit tests applied to capture-recapture models. We also describe the capture-recapture model selection procedure and the structure of the most supported model, which was used to estimate survival and population size.

Presence of Old Individuals in a Population Accelerates and Optimizes the Process of Selection: in silico Experiments.

PubMed

Chistyakov, V A; Denisenko, Y V; Bren, A B

2018-02-01

One of the important components of the concept of aging-phenoptosis (programmed aging) is the notion of aging as an accelerator of evolution having the rank of subconcept. For many reasons, the main being the problematic experimental testing of evolutionary hypotheses, verification of the above-mentioned subconcept can be based primarily on analysis of the internal inconsistency of heuristic models and their correspondence to undisputedly observed facts. To illustrate the acceleration mechanism, and most importantly to structure the evolutionary process in communities that include naturally weakened individuals, V. P. Skulachev offered in 2003 a conceptual model that he later called a "fable about hares". Despite its simplicity, this model has undoubted internal logic. The natural trend in the development of conceptual models is their translation into the language of mathematics. The purpose of the present work was to create a variation of the known multi-agent model "predator-prey" that would allow us to "see" how the presence in the prey population of naturally weakened (old) members stimulates the selection of individuals with traits whose adaptive potential is not devaluated with age. The model (http://homebear.ru/PD) was developed on the Java platform, version 6, NetBeans development environment 8.2. Statistical analysis and preparation of illustrative materials were carried out using environment R, version 3.4.1. The results of numerical experiments set using our model correspond in principle to the provisions of the heuristic model of Skulachev and, consequently, confirm the absence in it of logical contradictions.

Development and application of a density dependent matrix ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Ranging along the Atlantic coast from US Florida to the Maritime Provinces of Canada, the Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) is an important and well-studied model organism for understanding the effects of pollutants and other stressors in estuarine and marine ecosystems. Matrix population models are useful tools for ecological risk assessment because they integrate effects across the life cycle, provide a linkage between endpoints observed in the individual and ecological risk to the population as a whole, and project outcomes for many generations in the future. We developed a density dependent matrix population model for Atlantic killifish by modifying a model developed for fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) that has proved to be extremely useful, e.g. to incorporate data from laboratory studies and project effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals. We developed a size-structured model (as opposed to one that is based upon developmental stages or age class structure) so that we could readily incorporate output from a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model, currently under development. Due to a lack of sufficient data to accurately define killifish responses to density dependence, we tested a number of scenarios realistic for other fish species in order to demonstrate the outcome of including this ecologically important factor. We applied the model using published data for killifish exposed to dioxin-like compounds, and compared our results to those using

Probable causes of increasing brucellosis in free-ranging elk of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cross, P.C.; Cole, E.K.; Dobson, A.P.; Edwards, W.H.; Hamlin, K.L.; Luikart, G.; Middleton, A.D.; Scurlock, B.M.; White, P.J.

2010-01-01

While many wildlife species are threatened, some populations have recovered from previous overexploitation, and data linking these population increases with disease dynamics are limited. We present data suggesting that free-ranging elk (Cervus elaphus) are a maintenance host for Brucella abortus in new areas of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Brucellosis seroprevalence in free-ranging elk increased from 0-7% in 1991-1992 to 8-20% in 2006-2007 in four of six herd units around the GYE. These levels of brucellosis are comparable to some herd units where elk are artificially aggregated on supplemental feeding grounds. There are several possible mechanisms for this increase that we evaluated using statistical and population modeling approaches. Simulations of an age-structured population model suggest that the observed levels of seroprevalence are unlikely to be sustained by dispersal from supplemental feeding areas with relatively high seroprevalence or an older age structure. Increases in brucellosis seroprevalence and the total elk population size in areas with feeding grounds have not been statistically detectable. Meanwhile, the rate of seroprevalence increase outside the feeding grounds was related to the population size and density of each herd unit. Therefore, the data suggest that enhanced elk-to-elk transmission in free-ranging populations may be occurring due to larger winter elk aggregations. Elk populations inside and outside of the GYE that traditionally did not maintain brucellosis may now be at risk due to recent population increases. In particular, some neighboring populations of Montana elk were 5-9 times larger in 2007 than in the 1970s, with some aggregations comparable to the Wyoming feeding-ground populations. Addressing the unintended consequences of these increasing populations is complicated by limited hunter access to private lands, which places many ungulate populations out of administrative control. Agency-landowner hunting access partnerships and the protection of large predators are two management strategies that may be used to target high ungulate densities in private refuges and reduce the current and future burden of disease. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of pneumonia in bighorn sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cassirer, E. Frances; Plowright, Raina K.; Manlove, Kezia R.; Cross, Paul C.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Potter, Kathleen A.; Hudson, Peter J.

2013-01-01

Bighorn sheep mortality related to pneumonia is a primary factor limiting population recovery across western North America, but management has been constrained by an incomplete understanding of the disease. We analysed patterns of pneumonia-caused mortality over 14 years in 16 interconnected bighorn sheep populations to gain insights into underlying disease processes. 2. We observed four age-structured classes of annual pneumonia mortality patterns: all-age, lamb-only, secondary all-age and adult-only. Although there was considerable variability within classes, overall they differed in persistence within and impact on populations. Years with pneumonia-induced mortality occurring simultaneously across age classes (i.e. all-age) appeared to be a consequence of pathogen invasion into a naïve population and resulted in immediate population declines. Subsequently, low recruitment due to frequent high mortality outbreaks in lambs, probably due to association with chronically infected ewes, posed a significant obstacle to population recovery. Secondary all-age events occurred in previously exposed populations when outbreaks in lambs were followed by lower rates of pneumonia-induced mortality in adults. Infrequent pneumonia events restricted to adults were usually of short duration with low mortality. 3. Acute pneumonia-induced mortality in adults was concentrated in fall and early winter around the breeding season when rams are more mobile and the sexes commingle. In contrast, mortality restricted to lambs peaked in summer when ewes and lambs were concentrated in nursery groups. 4. We detected weak synchrony in adult pneumonia between adjacent populations, but found no evidence for landscape-scale extrinsic variables as drivers of disease. 5. We demonstrate that there was a >60% probability of a disease event each year following pneumonia invasion into bighorn sheep populations. Healthy years also occurred periodically, and understanding the factors driving these apparent fade-out events may be the key to managing this disease. Our data and modelling indicate that pneumonia can have greater impacts on bighorn sheep populations than previously reported, and we present hypotheses about processes involved for testing in future investigations and management.

Estimating demographic contributions to effective population size in an age-structured wild population experiencing environmental and demographic stochasticity.

PubMed

Trask, Amanda E; Bignal, Eric M; McCracken, Davy I; Piertney, Stuart B; Reid, Jane M

2017-09-01

A population's effective size (N e ) is a key parameter that shapes rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, thereby influencing evolutionary processes and population viability. However, estimating N e , and identifying key demographic mechanisms that underlie the N e to census population size (N) ratio, remains challenging, especially for small populations with overlapping generations and substantial environmental and demographic stochasticity and hence dynamic age-structure. A sophisticated demographic method of estimating N e /N, which uses Fisher's reproductive value to account for dynamic age-structure, has been formulated. However, this method requires detailed individual- and population-level data on sex- and age-specific reproduction and survival, and has rarely been implemented. Here, we use the reproductive value method and detailed demographic data to estimate N e /N for a small and apparently isolated red-billed chough (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax) population of high conservation concern. We additionally calculated two single-sample molecular genetic estimates of N e to corroborate the demographic estimate and examine evidence for unobserved immigration and gene flow. The demographic estimate of N e /N was 0.21, reflecting a high total demographic variance (σ2dg) of 0.71. Females and males made similar overall contributions to σ2dg. However, contributions varied among sex-age classes, with greater contributions from 3 year-old females than males, but greater contributions from ≥5 year-old males than females. The demographic estimate of N e was ~30, suggesting that rates of increase of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation per generation will be relatively high. Molecular genetic estimates of N e computed from linkage disequilibrium and approximate Bayesian computation were approximately 50 and 30, respectively, providing no evidence of substantial unobserved immigration which could bias demographic estimates of N e . Our analyses identify key sex-age classes contributing to demographic variance and thus decreasing N e /N in a small age-structured population inhabiting a variable environment. They thereby demonstrate how assessments of N e can incorporate stochastic sex- and age-specific demography and elucidate key demographic processes affecting a population's evolutionary trajectory and viability. Furthermore, our analyses show that N e for the focal chough population is critically small, implying that management to re-establish genetic connectivity may be required to ensure population viability. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Size and age structure of anadromous and landlocked populations of Rainbow Smelt

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Malley, Andrew; Enterline, Claire; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2017-01-01

Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax are widely distributed in both anadromous and landlocked populations throughout northeastern North America; abundance, size at age, and maximum size vary widely among populations and life histories. In the present study, size at age, von Bertalanffy growth parameters, population age distributions, and precision and bias in age assessment based on scales and sectioned otoliths were compared between ecotypes and among populations of Rainbow Smelt. To compare the ecotypes, we collected spawning adults from four anadromous and three landlocked populations in Maine during spring 2014. A significant bias was identified in only one of four scale comparisons but in four of seven otolith comparisons; however, a comparable level of precision was indicated. Anadromous populations had larger and more variable size at age and von Bertalanffy growth parameters than landlocked fish. Populations were composed of ages 1–4; six populations were dominated by age-2 or age-3 individuals, and one population was dominated by age-1 fish. These data suggest the presence of considerable plasticity among populations. A latitudinal gradient was observed in the anadromous Rainbow Smelt, which may show signs of population stress at the southern extent of their distribution.

Modelling the balance between quiescence and cell death in normal and tumour cell populations.

PubMed

Spinelli, Lorenzo; Torricelli, Alessandro; Ubezio, Paolo; Basse, Britta

2006-08-01

When considering either human adult tissues (in vivo) or cell cultures (in vitro), cell number is regulated by the relationship between quiescent cells, proliferating cells, cell death and other controls of cell cycle duration. By formulating a mathematical description we see that even small alterations of this relationship may cause a non-growing population to start growing with doubling times characteristic of human tumours. Our model consists of two age structured partial differential equations for the proliferating and quiescent cell compartments. Model parameters are death rates from and transition rates between these compartments. The partial differential equations can be solved for the steady-age distributions, giving the distribution of the cells through the cell cycle, dependent on specific model parameter values. Appropriate formulas can then be derived for various population characteristic quantities such as labelling index, proliferation fraction, doubling time and potential doubling time of the cell population. Such characteristic quantities can be estimated experimentally, although with decreasing precision from in vitro, to in vivo experimental systems and to the clinic. The model can be used to investigate the effects of a single alteration of either quiescence or cell death control on the growth of the whole population and the non-trivial dependence of the doubling time and other observable quantities on particular underlying cell cycle scenarios of death and quiescence. The model indicates that tumour evolution in vivo is a sequence of steady-states, each characterised by particular death and quiescence rate functions. We suggest that a key passage of carcinogenesis is a loss of the communication between quiescence, death and cell cycle machineries, causing a defect in their precise, cell cycle dependent relationship.

Structure of the New England herring gull population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kadlec, J.A.; Drury, W.H.

1968-01-01

Measurements of the rates of population increase, reproduction, and mortality together with an observed age ratio, were used to analyze the population of the Herring Gull in New England. Data from sporadic censuses prior to this study, aerial censuses by the authors, and National Audubon Society Christmas Bird Count indicated that the New England breeding population has been doubling every 12 to 15 years since the early 1900's. This increase has involved founding new colonies and expanding the breeding range There is evidence that 15 to 30% of the adults do not breed in any given year. Sixty-one productivity measurements on 43 islands from 1963 through 1966, involving almost 13,000 nests, showed that from 0.8 to 1.4 young/breeding pair/year is the usual range of rate of production. The age distribution in the population was determined by classifying Herring Gulls by plumage category on an aerial census of the coast from Tampico, Mexico, to Cape Sable, Nova Scotia. Of the 622,000 gulls observed, 68% were adults, 17% were second- and third-year birds, and 15% were first-year birds. Mortality rates derived from band recovery data were too high to be consistent with the observed rate of population growth, productivity, and age structure. Loss of bands increasing to the rate of about 20%/year 5 years after banding eliminates most of the discrepancy. The age structure and rate of population increase indicate a mortality rate of 4 to 9% for gulls 2 years old or older, compared with the 25 to 30% indicated by band recoveries. The population structure we have developed fits everything we have observed about Herring Gull population dynamics, except mortality based on band recoveries.

The concurrent evolution of cooperation and the population structures that support it.

PubMed

Powers, Simon T; Penn, Alexandra S; Watson, Richard A

2011-06-01

The evolution of cooperation often depends upon population structure, yet nearly all models of cooperation implicitly assume that this structure remains static. This is a simplifying assumption, because most organisms possess genetic traits that affect their population structure to some degree. These traits, such as a group size preference, affect the relatedness of interacting individuals and hence the opportunity for kin or group selection. We argue that models that do not explicitly consider their evolution cannot provide a satisfactory account of the origin of cooperation, because they cannot explain how the prerequisite population structures arise. Here, we consider the concurrent evolution of genetic traits that affect population structure, with those that affect social behavior. We show that not only does population structure drive social evolution, as in previous models, but that the opportunity for cooperation can in turn drive the creation of population structures that support it. This occurs through the generation of linkage disequilibrium between socio-behavioral and population-structuring traits, such that direct kin selection on social behavior creates indirect selection pressure on population structure. We illustrate our argument with a model of the concurrent evolution of group size preference and social behavior. © 2011 The Author(s). Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

[Fertility of the Yanomami population of Sierra Parima (Amazonas Federal Territory, Venezuela)].

PubMed

Schkolnik, S

1983-08-01

This article presents information on the age structure and level of female fertility obtained on the basis of a sample of the Yanomami population (653 individuals) residing in the Venezuelan margin of Sierra Parima. The population observed is very young, over 50% are less than age 15, and the mean age is 18. The total fertility rate reaches 7.76 children/woman while the age distribution of rates show that fertility begins at a very early age and begins to decrease only after age 30. (author's modified)

Cost-utility of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine in Brazil - comparison of outcomes from different static model types.

PubMed

Van Bellinghen, Laure-Anne; Marijam, Alen; Tannus Branco de Araujo, Gabriela; Gomez, Jorge; Van Vlaenderen, Ilse

Influenza burden in Brazil is considerable with 4.2-6.4 million cases in 2008 and influenza-like-illness responsible for 16.9% of hospitalizations. Cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination may be assessed by different types of models, with limitations due to data availability, assumptions, and modelling approach. To understand the impact of model complexity, the cost-utility of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccines in Brazil was estimated using three distinct models: a 1-year decision tree population model with three age groups (FLOU); a more detailed 1-year population model with five age groups (FLORA); and a more complex lifetime multi-cohort Markov model with nine age groups (FLORENCE). Analysis 1 (impact of model structure) compared each model using the same data inputs (i.e., best available data for FLOU). Analysis 2 (impact of increasing granularity) compared each model populated with the best available data for that model. Using the best data for each model, the discounted cost-utility ratio of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine was R$20,428 with FLOU, R$22,768 with FLORA (versus R$20,428 in Analysis 1), and, R$19,257 with FLORENCE (versus R$22,490 in Analysis 1) using a lifetime horizon. Conceptual differences between FLORA and FLORENCE meant the same assumption regarding increased all-cause mortality in at-risk individuals had an opposite effect on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in Analysis 2 versus 1, and a proportionally higher number of vaccinated elderly in FLORENCE reduced this ratio in Analysis 2. FLOU provided adequate cost-effectiveness estimates with data in broad age groups. FLORA increased insights (e.g., in healthy versus at-risk, paediatric, respiratory/non-respiratory complications). FLORENCE provided greater insights and precision (e.g., in elderly, costs and complications, lifetime cost-effectiveness). All three models predicted a cost per quality-adjusted life year gained for quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine in the range of R$19,257 (FLORENCE) to R$22,768 (FLORA) with the best available data in Brazil (Appendix A). Copyright © 2018 Sociedade Brasileira de Infectologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Otoliths reveal a diverse age structure for humper lake trout in Lake Superior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burnham-Curtis, Mary K.; Bronte, Charles R.

1996-01-01

Humpers are one of at least three morphological variants of wild lake trout Salvelinus namaycush that maintain self-sustaining populations in Lake Superior. In an early study, bumpers from Isle Royale were shown to have a sharply truncated age distribution that was attributed to high mortality after age 11, but we suspected that these fish were underaged. In August of 1989 and 1992 we collected spawning humper lake trout from the same area and estimated their ages using both scales and sagittal otoliths. Humpers in our sample ranged from 5 to 13 years, based on scale annuli, but counts of sagitta annuli revealed ages of 8 to 28 years. Individual discrepancies between ages from scales and sagittae varied from –2 to 20 years, but differences between scale and otolith ages did not increase with individual age. We applied the von Bertalanffy growth model to the humper length-at-age data to indirectly assess the accuracy of aging estimates. The model significantly overestimated mean asymptotic length when scale ages were used, but the mean asymptotic length estimate was more similar to observed lengths when sagitta ages were used. Our results corroborate evidence that bumpers in Lake Superior grow more slowly and mature at a smaller size than lean lake trout; however, the age composition of bumpers is more diverse than previously thought. This particular population experiences little or no exploitation; the presence of older fish provides one standard by which the success of lake trout rehabilitation programs can be evaluated and emphasizes the need for accurate aging techniques.

Heritability of the Number of Teeth in Middle-Aged and Older Danish Twins.

PubMed

Kurushima, Y; Silventoinen, K; Dokkedal, U; Skytthe, A; Mucci, L A; Christensen, K; Hjelmborg, J V B

2017-12-01

Tooth loss is a common health concern in older adults. We aimed to estimate the relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors to the variation in the number of teeth in middle-aged and older populations using a population-based cohort of Danish twins. The study included 5,269 Danish middle-aged or older twins who provided data on the number of teeth at baseline by structured interviews. The data were analyzed using univariate liability threshold modeling, stratified by sex and age, to estimate familial risk of tooth loss as well as estimates of heritability. In the whole cohorts, 23% of participants were edentate and 53% had retained 20 or more teeth. A statistical model including additive genetic factors and environmental factors partly shared by co-twins and partly unique to each individual twin gave the best statistical fit for the number of teeth in both age categories as well as in men and women. Overall, additive genetic factors explained 36% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 23% to 49%), common environmental factors 20% (95% CI: 9% to 31%), and unique environmental factors 44% (95% CI: 40% to 48%) of the total variation of the number of teeth. This study indicates that a substantial part of the variation in tooth loss is explained by genetic as well as environmental factors shared by co-twins. Our results implied that family background importantly affects tooth loss in both the middle-aged and the older populations. Family history is thus an important factor to take into account in dental health care.

Assessing aging stereotypes: Personal stereotypes, self-stereotypes and self-perception of aging.

PubMed

Fernández-Ballesteros, Rocío; Olmos, Ricardo; Santacreu, Marta; Bustillos, Antonio; Schettini, Rocío; Huici, Carmen; Rivera, José M

2017-11-01

There is a broad semantic network of aging stereotypes; where different concepts and their measurement are confused: personal stereotypes, self-stereotypes and self-perception of aging. First, we analyze the translated version of the Image of Aging Scale (IAS) measurement model through exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, with two representative sub-samples of the Spanish population aged over eighteen (N = 1,105) and in a sample of gerontologists and geriatricians (N = 325). Second, in an effort to disentangle the theoretical relationships between personal stereotypes, self-stereotypes and self-perception of aging, both the IAS (with different instructions) and Lawton’s 5-item scale were administered to a representative sample of Spanish people over 50. Our results indicate that the Spanish version of the IAS has a similar psychometric structure to that proposed by the authors. Furthermore, the factorial structure (equal form and metric invariance) is replicated in both samples, but latent means and factor correlations were higher in the professional group. We discuss Levy’s theoretical assumptions about personal-stereotypes and the self-stereotype measured with IAS and their relationship to self-perception of ageing.

Assessing vaccination as a control strategy in an ongoing epidemic: Bovine tuberculosis in African buffalo

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cross, P.C.; Getz, W.M.

2006-01-01

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is an exotic disease invading the buffalo population (Syncerus caffer) of the Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa. We used a sex and age-structured epidemiological model to assess the effectiveness of a vaccination program and define important research directions. The model allows for dispersal between a focal herd and background population and was parameterized with a combination of published data and analyses of over 130 radio-collared buffalo in the central region of the KNP. Radio-tracking data indicated that all sex and age categories move between mixed herds, and males over 8 years old had higher mortality and dispersal rates than any other sex or age category. In part due to the high dispersal rates of buffalo, sensitivity analyses indicate that disease prevalence in the background population accounts for the most variability in the BTB prevalence and quasi-eradication within the focal herd. Vaccination rate and the transmission coefficient were the second and third most important parameters of the sensitivity analyses. Further analyses of the model without dispersal suggest that the amount of vaccination necessary for quasi-eradication (i.e. prevalence 70% of the calf population would have to be vaccinated every year to reduce the prevalence to less than 1%. If the half-life of the vaccine is less than 5 years, even vaccinating every calf for 50 years may not eradicate BTB. Thus, although vaccination provides a means of controlling BTB prevalence it should be combined with other control measures if eradication is the objective.

Cougar survival and source-sink structure on Greater Yellowstone's Northern Range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruth, T.K.; Haroldson, M.A.; Murphy, K.M.; Buotte, P.C.; Hornocker, M.G.; Quigley, H.B.

2011-01-01

We studied survival and causes of mortality of radiocollared cougars (Puma concolor) on the Greater Yellowstone Northern Range (GYNR) prior to (1987–1994) and after wolf (Canis lupus) reintroduction (1998–2005) and evaluated temporal, spatial, and environmental factors that explain variation in adult, subadult, and kitten survival. Using Program MARK and multimodel inference, we modeled cougar survival based on demographic status, season, and landscape attributes. Our best models for adult and independent subadults indicated that females survived better than males and survival increased with age until cougars reached older ages. Lower elevations and increasing density of roads, particularly in areas open to cougar hunting north of Yellowstone National Park (YNP), increased mortality risks for cougars on the GYNR. Indices of ungulate biomass, cougar and wolf population size, winter severity, rainfall, and individual characteristics such as the presence of dependent young, age class, and use of Park or Wilderness were not important predictors of survival. Kitten survival increased with age, was lower during winter, increased with increasing minimum estimates of elk calf biomass, and increased with increasing density of adult male cougars. Using our best model, we mapped adult cougar survival on the GYNR landscape. Results of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated a good model fit for both female (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.81, 95%CI = 0.70–0.92, n = 35 locations) and male cougars (AUC = 0.84, 95%CI = 0.74–0.94, n = 49 locations) relative to hunter harvest locations in our study area. Using minimum estimates of survival necessary to sustain the study population, we developed a source-sink surface and we identify several measures that resource management agencies can take to enhance cougar population management based on a source-sink strategy.

Simulating the evolution of glyphosate resistance in grains farming in northern Australia.

PubMed

Thornby, David F; Walker, Steve R

2009-09-01

The evolution of resistance to herbicides is a substantial problem in contemporary agriculture. Solutions to this problem generally consist of the use of practices to control the resistant population once it evolves, and/or to institute preventative measures before populations become resistant. Herbicide resistance evolves in populations over years or decades, so predicting the effectiveness of preventative strategies in particular relies on computational modelling approaches. While models of herbicide resistance already exist, none deals with the complex regional variability in the northern Australian sub-tropical grains farming region. For this reason, a new computer model was developed. The model consists of an age- and stage-structured population model of weeds, with an existing crop model used to simulate plant growth and competition, and extensions to the crop model added to simulate seed bank ecology and population genetics factors. Using awnless barnyard grass (Echinochloa colona) as a test case, the model was used to investigate the likely rate of evolution under conditions expected to produce high selection pressure. Simulating continuous summer fallows with glyphosate used as the only means of weed control resulted in predicted resistant weed populations after approx. 15 years. Validation of the model against the paddock history for the first real-world glyphosate-resistant awnless barnyard grass population shows that the model predicted resistance evolution to within a few years of the real situation. This validation work shows that empirical validation of herbicide resistance models is problematic. However, the model simulates the complexities of sub-tropical grains farming in Australia well, and can be used to investigate, generate and improve glyphosate resistance prevention strategies.

Life-history and habitat features influence the within-river genetic structure of Atlantic salmon.

PubMed

Vähä, Juha-Pekka; Erkinaro, Jaakko; Niemelä, Eero; Primmer, Craig R

2007-07-01

Defining populations and identifying ecological and life-history characteristics affecting genetic structure is important for understanding species biology and hence, for managing threatened or endangered species or populations. In this study, populations of the world's largest indigenous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) stock were first inferred using model-based clustering methods, following which life-history and habitat variables best predicting the genetic diversity of populations were identified. This study revealed that natal homing of Atlantic salmon within the Teno River system is accurate at least to the tributary level. Generally, defining populations by main tributaries was observed to be a reasonable approach in this large river system, whereas in the mainstem of the river, the number of inferred populations was fewer than the number of distinct sampling sites. Mainstem and headwater populations were genetically more diverse and less diverged, while each tributary fostered a distinct population with high genetic differentiation and lower genetic diversity. Population structure and variation in genetic diversity among populations were poorly explained by geographical distance. In contrast, age-structure, as estimated by the proportion of multisea-winter spawners, was the most predictive variable in explaining the variation in the genetic diversity of the populations. This observation, being in agreement with theoretical predictions, emphasizes the essence of large multisea-winter females in maintaining the genetic diversity of populations. In addition, the unique genetic diversity of populations, as estimated by private allele richness, was affected by the ease of accessibility of a site, with more difficult to access sites having lower unique genetic diversity. Our results show that despite this species' high capacity for migration, tributaries foster relatively closed populations with little gene flow which will be important to consider when developing management strategies for the system.

Capital, population and urban patterns.

PubMed

Zhang, W

1994-04-01

The author develops an approach to urban dynamics with endogenous capital and population growth, synthesizing the Alonso location model, the two-sector neoclassical growth model, and endogenous population theory. A dynamic model for an isolated island economy with endogenous capital, population, and residential structure is developed on the basis of Alonso's residential model and the two-sector neoclassical growth model. The model describes the interdependence between residential structure, economic growth, population growth, and economic structure over time and space. It has a unique long-run equilibrium, which may be either stable or unstable, depending upon the population dynamics. Applying the Hopf theorem, the author also shows that when the system is unstable, the economic geography exhibits permanent endogenous oscillations.

Random regression analyses using B-splines functions to model growth from birth to adult age in Canchim cattle.

PubMed

Baldi, F; Alencar, M M; Albuquerque, L G

2010-12-01

The objective of this work was to estimate covariance functions using random regression models on B-splines functions of animal age, for weights from birth to adult age in Canchim cattle. Data comprised 49,011 records on 2435 females. The model of analysis included fixed effects of contemporary groups, age of dam as quadratic covariable and the population mean trend taken into account by a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age. Residual variances were modelled through a step function with four classes. The direct and maternal additive genetic effects, and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects were included as random effects in the model. A total of seventeen analyses, considering linear, quadratic and cubic B-splines functions and up to seven knots, were carried out. B-spline functions of the same order were considered for all random effects. Random regression models on B-splines functions were compared to a random regression model on Legendre polynomials and with a multitrait model. Results from different models of analyses were compared using the REML form of the Akaike Information criterion and Schwarz' Bayesian Information criterion. In addition, the variance components and genetic parameters estimated for each random regression model were also used as criteria to choose the most adequate model to describe the covariance structure of the data. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with four knots or three segments for direct additive genetic effect and animal permanent environmental effect and two knots for maternal additive genetic effect and maternal permanent environmental effect, was the most adequate to describe the covariance structure of the data. Random regression models using B-spline functions as base functions fitted the data better than Legendre polynomials, especially at mature ages, but higher number of parameters need to be estimated with B-splines functions. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Abundance trends and status of the Little Colorado River population of humpback chub

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Van Haverbeke, D. R.; Ward, D.; Johnstone, H.C.

2006-01-01

The abundance of the Little Colorado River population of federally listed humpback chub Gila cypha in Grand Canyon has been monitored since the late 1980s by means of catch rate indices and capture-recapture-based abundance estimators. Analyses of data from all sources using various methods are consistent and indicate that the adult population has declined since monitoring began. Intensive tagging led to a high proportion (>80%) of the adult population being marked by the mid-1990s. Analysis of these data using both closed and open abundance estimation models yields results that agree with catch rate indices about the extent of the decline. Survival rates for age-2 and older fish are age dependent but apparently not time dependent. Back-calculation of recruitment using the apparent 1990s population age structure implies periods of higher recruitment in the late 1970s to early 1980s than is now the case. Our analyses indicate that the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recovery criterion of stable abundance is not being met for this population. Also, there is a critical need to develop new abundance indexing and tagging methods so that early, reliable, and rapid estimates of humpback chub recruitment can be obtained to evaluate population responses to management actions designed to facilitate the restoration of Colorado River native fish communities. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

Suppression of invasive lake trout in an isolated backcountry lake in Glacier National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fredenberg, C. R.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Guy, Christopher S.; D'Angelo, Vincent S.; Downs, Christopher C.; Syslo, John M.

2017-01-01

Fisheries managers have implemented suppression programmes to control non-native lake trout, Salvelinus namaycush (Walbaum), in several lakes throughout the western United States. This study determined the feasibility of experimentally suppressing lake trout using gillnets in an isolated backcountry lake in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, for the conservation of threatened bull trout, Salvelinus confluentus (Suckley). The demographics of the lake trout population during suppression (2009–2013) were described, and those data were used to assess the effects of suppression scenarios on population growth rate (λ) using an age-structured population model. Model simulations indicated that the population was growing exponentially (λ = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.16–1.28) prior to suppression. However, suppression resulted in declining λ(0.61–0.79) for lake trout, which was concomitant with stable bull trout adult abundances. Continued suppression at or above observed exploitation levels is needed to ensure continued population declines.

Ancestral populations perform better in a novel environment: domestication of medfly populations from five global regions

PubMed Central

Diamantidis, Alexandros D.; Carey, James R.; Nakas, Christos T.; Papadopoulos, Nikos T.

2010-01-01

Geographically isolated populations of a species may differ in several aspects of life-history, morphology, behavior, and genetic structure as a result of adaptation in ecologically diverse habitats. We used a global invasive species, the Mediterranean fruit fly to investigate, whether adaptation to a novel environment differs among geographically isolated populations that vary in major life history components such as life span and reproduction. We used wild populations from five global regions (Kenya, Hawaii, Guatemala, Portugal, and Greece). Adult demographic traits were monitored in F2, F5, F7 and F9 generations in captivity. Although domestication in constant laboratory conditions had a different effect on the mortality and reproductive rates of the different populations, a general trend of decreasing life span and age of first reproduction was observed for most medfly populations tested. However, taking into account longevity of both sexes, age-specific reproductive schedules, and average reproductive rates we found that the ancestral Kenyan population kept the above life history traits stable during domestication compared to the other populations tested. These findings provide important insights in the life-history evolution of this model species, and suggest that ancestral medfly populations perform better than the derived – invasive ones in a novel environment. PMID:21278856

Density, distribution, and genetic structure of grizzly bears in the Cabinet-Yaak Ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Macleod, Amy C.; Boyd, Kristina L.; Boulanger, John; Royle, J. Andrew; Kasworm, Wayne F.; Paetkau, David; Proctor, Michael F.; Annis, Kim; Graves, Tabitha A.

2016-01-01

The conservation status of the 2 threatened grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) populations in the Cabinet-Yaak Ecosystem (CYE) of northern Montana and Idaho had remained unchanged since designation in 1975; however, the current demographic status of these populations was uncertain. No rigorous data on population density and distribution or analysis of recent population genetic structure were available to measure the effectiveness of conservation efforts. We used genetic detection data from hair corral, bear rub, and opportunistic sampling in traditional and spatial capture–recapture models to generate estimates of abundance and density of grizzly bears in the CYE. We calculated mean bear residency on our sampling grid from telemetry data using Huggins and Pledger models to estimate the average number of bears present and to correct our superpopulation estimates for lack of geographic closure. Estimated grizzly bear abundance (all sex and age classes) in the CYE in 2012 was 48–50 bears, approximately half the population recovery goal. Grizzly bear density in the CYE (4.3–4.5 grizzly bears/1,000 km2) was among the lowest of interior North American populations. The sizes of the Cabinet (n = 22–24) and Yaak (n = 18–22) populations were similar. Spatial models produced similar estimates of abundance and density with comparable precision without requiring radio-telemetry data to address assumptions of geographic closure. The 2 populations in the CYE were demographically and reproductively isolated from each other and the Cabinet population was highly inbred. With parentage analysis, we documented natural migrants to the Cabinet and Yaak populations by bears born to parents in the Selkirk and Northern Continental Divide populations. These events supported data from other sources suggesting that the expansion of neighboring populations may eventually help sustain the CYE populations. However, the small size, isolation, and inbreeding documented by this study demonstrate the need for comprehensive management designed to support CYE population growth and increased connectivity and gene flow with other populations.

Lethal coalitionary aggression and long-term alliance formation among Yanomamö men.

PubMed

Macfarlan, Shane J; Walker, Robert S; Flinn, Mark V; Chagnon, Napoleon A

2014-11-25

Some cross-cultural evidence suggests lethal coalitionary aggression in humans is the product of residence and descent rules that promote fraternal interest groups, i.e., power groups of coresident males bonded by kinship. As such, human lethal coalitions are hypothesized to be homologous to chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes) border patrols. However, humans demonstrate a unique metagroup social structure in which strategic alliances allow individuals to form coalitions transcending local community boundaries. We test predictions derived from the fraternal interest group and strategic alliance models using lethal coalition data from a lowland South American population, the Yanomamö. Yanomamö men who kill an enemy acquire a special status, termed unokai. We examine the social characteristics of co-unokais or men who jointly kill others. Analyses indicate co-unokais generally are (i) from the same population but from different villages and patrilines, (ii) close age mates, and (iii) maternal half-first cousins. Furthermore, the incident rate for co-unokai killings increases if men are similar in age, from the same population, and from different natal communities. Co-unokais who have killed more times in the past and who are more genetically related to each other have a higher probability of coresidence in adulthood. Last, a relationship exists between lethal coalition formation and marriage exchange. In this population, internal warfare unites multiple communities, and co-unokais strategically form new residential groups and marriage alliances. These results support the strategic alliance model of coalitionary aggression, demonstrate the complexities of human alliance formation, and illuminate key differences in social structure distinguishing humans from other primates.

Lethal coalitionary aggression and long-term alliance formation among Yanomamö men

PubMed Central

Macfarlan, Shane J.; Walker, Robert S.; Flinn, Mark V.; Chagnon, Napoleon A.

2014-01-01

Some cross-cultural evidence suggests lethal coalitionary aggression in humans is the product of residence and descent rules that promote fraternal interest groups, i.e., power groups of coresident males bonded by kinship. As such, human lethal coalitions are hypothesized to be homologous to chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes) border patrols. However, humans demonstrate a unique metagroup social structure in which strategic alliances allow individuals to form coalitions transcending local community boundaries. We test predictions derived from the fraternal interest group and strategic alliance models using lethal coalition data from a lowland South American population, the Yanomamö. Yanomamö men who kill an enemy acquire a special status, termed unokai. We examine the social characteristics of co-unokais or men who jointly kill others. Analyses indicate co-unokais generally are (i) from the same population but from different villages and patrilines, (ii) close age mates, and (iii) maternal half-first cousins. Furthermore, the incident rate for co-unokai killings increases if men are similar in age, from the same population, and from different natal communities. Co-unokais who have killed more times in the past and who are more genetically related to each other have a higher probability of coresidence in adulthood. Last, a relationship exists between lethal coalition formation and marriage exchange. In this population, internal warfare unites multiple communities, and co-unokais strategically form new residential groups and marriage alliances. These results support the strategic alliance model of coalitionary aggression, demonstrate the complexities of human alliance formation, and illuminate key differences in social structure distinguishing humans from other primates. PMID:25349394

Effects of aging on sleep structure throughout adulthood: a population-based study.

PubMed

Moraes, Walter; Piovezan, Ronaldo; Poyares, Dalva; Bittencourt, Lia Rita; Santos-Silva, Rogerio; Tufik, Sergio

2014-04-01

Although many studies have shown the evolution of sleep parameters across the lifespan, not many have included a representative sample of the general population. The objective of this study was to describe age-related changes in sleep structure, sleep respiratory parameters and periodic limb movements of the adult population of São Paulo. We selected a representative sample of the city of São Paulo, Brazil that included both genders and an age range of 20-80 years. Pregnant and lactating women, people with physical or mental impairments that prevent self-care and people who work every night were not included. This sample included 1024 individuals who were submitted to polysomnography and structured interviews. We subdivided our sample into five-year age groups. One-way analysis of variance was used to compare age groups. Pearson product-moment was used to evaluate correlation between age and sleep parameters. Total sleep time, sleep efficiency, percentage of rapid eye movement (REM) sleep and slow wave sleep showed a significant age-related decrease (P<0.05). WASO (night-time spent awake after sleep onset), arousal index, sleep latency, REM sleep latency, and the percentage of stages 1 and 2 showed a significant increase (P<0.05). Furthermore, apnea-hypopnea index increased and oxygen saturation decreased with age. The reduction in the percentage of REM sleep significantly correlated with age in women, whereas the reduction in the percentage of slow wave sleep correlated with age in men. The periodic limb movement (PLM) index increased with age in men and women. Sleep structure and duration underwent significant alterations throughout the aging process in the general population. There was an important correlation between age, sleep respiratory parameters and PLM index. In addition, men and women showed similar trends but with different effect sizes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Unresolved versus resolved: testing the validity of young simple stellar population models with VLT/MUSE observations of NGC 3603

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuncarayakti, H.; Galbany, L.; Anderson, J. P.; Krühler, T.; Hamuy, M.

2016-09-01

Context. Stellar populations are the building blocks of galaxies, including the Milky Way. The majority, if not all, extragalactic studies are entangled with the use of stellar population models given the unresolved nature of their observation. Extragalactic systems contain multiple stellar populations with complex star formation histories. However, studies of these systems are mainly based upon the principles of simple stellar populations (SSP). Hence, it is critical to examine the validity of SSP models. Aims: This work aims to empirically test the validity of SSP models. This is done by comparing SSP models against observations of spatially resolved young stellar population in the determination of its physical properties, that is, age and metallicity. Methods: Integral field spectroscopy of a young stellar cluster in the Milky Way, NGC 3603, was used to study the properties of the cluster as both a resolved and unresolved stellar population. The unresolved stellar population was analysed using the Hα equivalent width as an age indicator and the ratio of strong emission lines to infer metallicity. In addition, spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting using STARLIGHT was used to infer these properties from the integrated spectrum. Independently, the resolved stellar population was analysed using the colour-magnitude diagram (CMD) to determine age and metallicity. As the SSP model represents the unresolved stellar population, the derived age and metallicity were tested to determine whether they agree with those derived from resolved stars. Results: The age and metallicity estimate of NGC 3603 derived from integrated spectroscopy are confirmed to be within the range of those derived from the CMD of the resolved stellar population, including other estimates found in the literature. The result from this pilot study supports the reliability of SSP models for studying unresolved young stellar populations. Based on observations collected at the European Organisation for Astronomical Research in the Southern Hemisphere under ESO programme 60.A-9344.

A general population-genetic model for the production by population structure of spurious genotype-phenotype associations in discrete, admixed or spatially distributed populations.

PubMed

Rosenberg, Noah A; Nordborg, Magnus

2006-07-01

In linkage disequilibrium mapping of genetic variants causally associated with phenotypes, spurious associations can potentially be generated by any of a variety of types of population structure. However, mathematical theory of the production of spurious associations has largely been restricted to population structure models that involve the sampling of individuals from a collection of discrete subpopulations. Here, we introduce a general model of spurious association in structured populations, appropriate whether the population structure involves discrete groups, admixture among such groups, or continuous variation across space. Under the assumptions of the model, we find that a single common principle--applicable to both the discrete and admixed settings as well as to spatial populations--gives a necessary and sufficient condition for the occurrence of spurious associations. Using a mathematical connection between the discrete and admixed cases, we show that in admixed populations, spurious associations are less severe than in corresponding mixtures of discrete subpopulations, especially when the variance of admixture across individuals is small. This observation, together with the results of simulations that examine the relative influences of various model parameters, has important implications for the design and analysis of genetic association studies in structured populations.

Assessing age stereotypes in the German population in 1996 and 2011: socio-demographic correlates and shift over time.

PubMed

Spangenberg, Lena; Zenger, Markus; Glaesmer, Heide; Brähler, Elmar; Strauss, Bernhard

2018-03-01

The present study aimed to extend the knowledge regarding dimensionality, socio-demographic correlates and shifts in age stereotypes over the past 15 years using a time-sequential design. In 1996 and 2011, we assessed age stereotypes in two independent samples of the German population aged ≥ 45 years ( N  = 970 in sample 1, N  = 1545 in sample 2). Three scales with six items each were assessed. Two scales cover negative (i.e., rigidity/isolation, burden), and one scale covers positive age stereotypes (wisdom/experience). Dimensionality of the scale, associations with socio-demographic variables and whether the stereotypes have shifted were tested using confirmatory factor analyses, structural equation modeling and analyses of variances. Three dimensions were identified and replicated following an exploratory as well as a confirmatory approach. Age stereotypes did shift between 1996 and 2011 in the dimension burden (i.e., becoming more negative). Our results further underpin the finding that age stereotypes are multifaceted and suggest that dimensions do not change over time. Additionally, our data provide some evidence that societal age stereotypes partly change over time.

Dynamical properties of the Penna aging model applied to the population of wolves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makowiec, Danuta

1997-02-01

The parameters of th Penna bit-string model of aging of biological systems are systematically tested to better understand the model itself as well as the results arising from applying this model to studies of the development of the stationary population of Alaska wolves.

Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.; Rogers, V.C.

1991-01-01

The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation.

Aging in Mexico: Population Trends and Emerging Issues

PubMed Central

Vega, William; López-Ortega, Mariana

2017-01-01

Abstract Although all nations in the America’s face a common demographic reality of longevity, declining fertility rates and changes in family roles a growing body of research points to a dramatic demographic transformation in Mexico. Although Mexico’s population is relatively young, with a median age of 27.9 in 2015, it will age rapidly in coming years, increasing to 42 years by 2050. The rapid median age in the nation also reflects the growing proportion of people 65 or older, and is expected to triple to 20.2% by 2050. This article examines how the age and gender structure of Mexico offers important insights about current and future political and social stability, as well as economic development. Mexico is the world’s eleventh largest country in terms of population size and the “demographic dividend” of a large youthful population is giving way to a growing older population that will inevitably place demands on health care and social security. The shift in age structure will result in increased dependency of retirees on the working-age population in the next 20 years. Mexico does not provide universal coverage of social security benefits and less than half of the labor force is covered by any pension or retirement plan. As a result, elderly Mexicans often continue working into old age. The high total poverty rate in the country, especially among the older population magnifies the problem of the potential dependency burden. The article ends with a discussion of key public policy issues related to aging in Mexico. PMID:27927730

The influence of climatic variability on local population dynamics of Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, Janice E.; Turner, R.M.

2002-01-01

This study investigated correlations among climatic variability, population age structure, and seedling survival of a dominant Sonoran Desert tree, Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde), at Tucson, Arizona, USA. A major goal was to determine whether wet years promote seedling establishment and thereby determine population structure. Plant age was estimated from basal circumference for a sample of 980 living and dead trees in twelve 0.5-ha plots. Ages ranged from 1 to 181 years. Age frequency distribution showed that the population is in decline. Most (51.2%) of the 814 living trees were 40-80 years old; only 6.5% were younger than 20 years. The average age of the 166 dead trees was 78 years. Fifty-nine percent of dead trees were aged 60-100 years. Survival of newly emerged seedlings was monitored for 7 years in a 557-m2 permanent plot. Mean survival in the 1st year of life was 1.7%. Only 2 of 1,008 seedlings lived longer than 1 year. Length of survival was not correlated with rainfall. Residual regeneration, an index of the difference between predicted and observed cohort size, showed that regeneration was high during the first half of the twentieth century and poor after the mid-1950s. Trends in regeneration did not reflect interannual variation in seasonal temperature or rain before 1950, that is, in the years before urban warming. Taken together, the seedling study and the regeneration analysis suggest that local population dynamics reflect biotic factors to such an extent that population age structure might not always be a reliable clue to past climatic influences.

Impact of Stellar Convection Criteria on the Nucleosynthetic Yields of Population III Supernovae.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teffs, Jacob; Young, Tim; Lawlor, Tim

2018-01-01

A grid of 15-80 solar mass Z=0 stellar models are evolved to pre-core collapse using the stellar evolution code BRAHAMA. Each initial zero-age main sequence mass model star is evolved with two different convection criteria, Ledoux and Schwarzchild. The choice of convection produces significant changes in the evolutionary model tracks on the HR diagram, mass loss, and interior core and envelope structures. At onset of core collapse, a SNe explosion is initiated using a one-dimensional radiation-hydrodynamics code and followed for 400 days. The explosion energy is varied between 1-10 foes depending on the model as there are no observationally determined energies for population III supernovae. Due to structure differences, the Schwarzchild models resemble Type II-P SNe in their lightcurve while the Ledoux models resemble SN1987a, a Type IIpec. The nucleosynthesis is calculated using TORCH, a 3,208 isotope network, in a post process method using the hydrodynamic history. The Ledoux models have, on average, higher yields for elements above Fe compared to the Schwarzchild. Using a Salpeter IMF and other recently published population III IMF’s, the net integrated yields per solar mass are calculated and compared to published theoretical results and to published observations of extremely metal poor halo stars of [Fe/H] < -3. Preliminary results show the lower mass models of both criteria show similar trends to the extremely metal poor halo stars but more work and analysis is required.

Small mammal populations at hazardous waste disposal sites near Houston, Texas, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, C.S.

1990-01-01

Small mammals were trapped, tagged and recaptured in 0?45 ha plots at six hazardous industrial waste disposal sites to determine if populations, body mass and age structures were different from paired control site plots. Low numbers of six species of small mammals were captured on industrial waste sites or control sites. Only populations of hispid cotton rats at industrial waste sites and control sites were large enough for comparisons. Overall population numbers, age structure, and body mass of adult male and female cotton rats were similar at industrial waste sites and control sites. Populations of small mammals (particularly hispid cotton rats) may not suffice as indicators of environments with hazardous industrial waste contamination.

Optimization models for degrouping population data.

PubMed

Bermúdez, Silvia; Blanquero, Rafael

2016-07-01

In certain countries population data are available in grouped form only, usually as quinquennial age groups plus a large open-ended range for the elderly. However, official statistics call for data by individual age since many statistical operations, such as the calculation of demographic indicators, require the use of ungrouped population data. In this paper a number of mathematical models are proposed which, starting from population data given in age groups, enable these ranges to be degrouped into age-specific population values without leaving a fractional part. Unlike other existing procedures for disaggregating demographic data, ours makes it possible to process several years' data simultaneously in a coherent way, and provides accurate results longitudinally as well as transversally. This procedure is also shown to be helpful in dealing with degrouped population data affected by noise, such as those affected by the age-heaping phenomenon.

Prophylactic ranitidine treatment in critically ill children – a population pharmacokinetic study

PubMed Central

Hawwa, Ahmed F; Westwood, Paul M; Collier, Paul S; Millership, Jeffrey S; Yakkundi, Shirish; Thurley, Gillian; Shields, Mike D; Nunn, Anthony J; Halliday, Henry L; McElnay, James C

2013-01-01

Aims To characterize the population pharmacokinetics of ranitidine in critically ill children and to determine the influence of various clinical and demographic factors on its disposition. Methods Data were collected prospectively from 78 paediatric patients (n = 248 plasma samples) who received oral or intravenous ranitidine for prophylaxis against stress ulcers, gastrointestinal bleeding or the treatment of gastro-oesophageal reflux. Plasma samples were analysed using high-performance liquid chromatography, and the data were subjected to population pharmacokinetic analysis using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling. Results A one-compartment model best described the plasma concentration profile, with an exponential structure for interindividual errors and a proportional structure for intra-individual error. After backward stepwise elimination, the final model showed a significant decrease in objective function value (−12.618; P < 0.001) compared with the weight-corrected base model. Final parameter estimates for the population were 32.1 l h−1 for total clearance and 285 l for volume of distribution, both allometrically modelled for a 70 kg adult. Final estimates for absorption rate constant and bioavailability were 1.31 h−1 and 27.5%, respectively. No significant relationship was found between age and weight-corrected ranitidine pharmacokinetic parameters in the final model, with the covariate for cardiac failure or surgery being shown to reduce clearance significantly by a factor of 0.46. Conclusions Currently, ranitidine dose recommendations are based on children's weights. However, our findings suggest that a dosing scheme that takes into consideration both weight and cardiac failure/surgery would be more appropriate in order to avoid administration of higher or more frequent doses than necessary. PMID:23016949

The Impact of Policies Influencing the Demography of Age-Structured Populations: Lessons from Academies of Sciences

PubMed Central

Riosmena, Fernando; Winkler-Dworak, Maria; Prskawetz, Alexia; Feichtinger, Gustav

2013-01-01

In this paper, we assess the role of policies aimed at regulating the number and age structure of elections on the size and age structure of five European Academies of Sciences. We show the recent pace of ageing and the degree of variation in policies across them and discuss the implications of different policies on the size and age structure of academies. We also illustrate the potential effect of different election regimes (fixed vs. linked) and age structures of election (younger vs. older) by contrasting the steady-state dynamics of different projections of Full Members in each academy into 2070 and measuring the size and age-compositional effect of changing a given policy relative to a status quo policy scenario. Our findings suggest that academies with linked intake (i.e., where the size of the academy below a certain age is fixed and the number of elections is set to the number of members becoming that age) may be a more efficient approach to curb growth without suffering any ageing trade-offs relative to the faster growth of academies electing a fixed number of members per year. We further discuss the implications of our results in the context of stable populations open to migration. PMID:23843677

Unintentional fall-related mortality in the elderly: comparing patterns in two countries with different demographic structure

PubMed Central

Majdan, Marek; Mauritz, Walter

2015-01-01

Objectives Falls are among the major external causes of unintentional injury and injury-related mortality in the elderly. The aim of this study was to compare the patterns of unintentional fall-related mortalities in two countries with different demographic structure: Slovakia and Austria in 2003–2010. Methods A study was conducted using death certificate data, trends of fall-related mortality in the elderly (over 65 years) in Austria and Slovakia were compared. Crude and age-standardised mortality rates were calculated. Rate ratios were used to quantify differences based on age, sex and country. The role of demographic structure and population ageing was considered. Results The annual average crude mortality for Slovakia was 28.82, for Austria 54.19 per 100 000 person-years. Increasing rates were observed towards higher age in both countries. Males had higher mortality than females (1.18 times higher in Austria, 2.4 higher in Slovakia). In ages over 75 years rates were significantly higher in Austria, compared to Slovakia. Injuries to head (in males) and hip (in females) were most commonly the underlying cause of death. The proportion of populations over 65 and over 80 and rate of their increase were higher in Austria than in Slovakia. Conclusions We conclude that higher proportions of the elderly population of Austria could have contributed to the higher fall-related mortality rates compared to Slovakia, especially in females over 80 years. Our study quantified the differences between two countries with different structure of the elderly population and these findings could be used in planning future needs of health and social services and to plan prevention in countries where a rapid increase in age of the population can be foreseen. PMID:26270950

Experimental stocking of sport fish in the regulated Tallapoosa River to determine critical periods for recruitment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lloyd, M. Clint; Lai, Quan; Sammons, Steve; Irwin, Elise R.

2017-01-01

The stocking of fish in riverine systems to re-establish stocks for conservation and management appears limited to a few species and often occurs in reaches impacted by impoundments. Stocking of sport fish species such as centrarchids and ictalurids is often restricted to lentic environments, although stocking in lotic environments is feasible with variable success. R. L. Harris Dam on the Tallapoosa River, Alabama is the newest and uppermost dam facility on the river (operating since 1983); flows from the dam have been managed adaptively for multiple stakeholder objectives since 2005. One of the stakeholders’ primary objectives is to provide quality sport fisheries in the Tallapoosa River in the managed area below the dam. Historically, ictalurids and cyprinids dominated the river above Lake Martin. However, investigations after Harris Dam closed have detected a shift in community structure to domination by centrarchids. Flow management (termed the Green Plan) has been occurring since March 2005; however, sport fish populations as measured by recruitment of age-1 sport fishes below the dam has not responded adequately to flow management. The objectives of this research were to: (1) determine if stocking Channel Catfish Ictalurus punctatus and Redbreast Sunfish Lepomis auritus influences year-class strength; (2) estimate vital rates (i.e. growth, mortality, and recruitment) for Channel Catfish populations for use in an age-based population model; and (3) identify age-specific survivorship and fecundity rates contributing to Channel Catfish population stability. No marked Redbreast Sunfish were recaptured due to poor marking efficacy and therefore no further analysis was conducted with this species. Stocked Channel Catfish, similarly, were not recaptured, leaving reasons for non-recapture unknown. Matrix models exploring vital rates illustrated survival to age-1 for Channel Catfish to be less than 0.03% and that survival through ages 2 – 4 had equal contribution to overall population growth, indicating recruitment limitation may impact population size and stability. Results from this study indicate stock enhancement of sport fish populations below Harris Dam may not be an effective management technique at this time.

Externalities in a life cycle model with endogenous survival☆

PubMed Central

Kuhn, Michael; Wrzaczek, Stefan; Prskawetz, Alexia; Feichtinger, Gustav

2011-01-01

We study socially vs individually optimal life cycle allocations of consumption and health, when individual health care curbs own mortality but also has a spillover effect on other persons’ survival. Such spillovers arise, for instance, when health care activity at aggregate level triggers improvements in treatment through learning-by-doing (positive externality) or a deterioration in the quality of care through congestion (negative externality). We combine an age-structured optimal control model at population level with a conventional life cycle model to derive the social and private value of life. We then examine how individual incentives deviate from social incentives and how they can be aligned by way of a transfer scheme. The age-patterns of socially and individually optimal health expenditures and the transfer rate are derived. Numerical analysis illustrates the working of our model. PMID:28298810

Do persistently fast-growing juveniles contribute disproportionately to population growth? A new analysis tool for matrix models and its application to rainforest trees.

PubMed

Zuidema, Pieter A; Brienen, Roel J W; During, Heinjo J; Güneralp, Burak

2009-11-01

Plants and animals often exhibit strong and persistent growth variation among individuals within a species. Persistently fast-growing individuals have a higher chance of reaching reproductive size, do so at a younger age, and therefore contribute disproportionately to population growth (lambda). Here we introduce a new approach to quantify this "fast-growth effect." We propose using age-size-structured matrix models in which persistently fast and slow growers are distinguished as they occur in relatively young and old age classes for a given size category. Life-cycle pathways involving fast growth can then be identified, and their contribution to lambda is quantified through loop analysis. We applied this approach to an example species, the tropical rainforest tree Cedrela odorata, that shows persistent growth variation among individuals. Loop analysis showed that juvenile trees reaching the 10-cm diameter class at below-median age contributed twice as much to lambda as slow juvenile growers. Fast growth to larger-diameter categories also contributed disproportionately to lambda. The results were robust to changes in parameter values and life-history trade-offs. These results show that the fast-growth effect can be strong in long-lived species. Persistent growth differences among individuals should therefore be accommodated for in demographic models and life-history studies.

Reintroducing Guanaco in the Upper Belt of Central Argentina: Using Population Viability Analysis to Evaluate Extinction Risk and Management Priorities

PubMed Central

Barri, Fernando Rafael

2016-01-01

Wildlife reintroduction is an increasingly used strategy to reverse anthropocene defaunation. For the purpose of ecosystem restoration, in 2007 the guanaco (Lama guanicoe) was reintroduced to the Quebrada del Condorito National Park, situated in the mountains of central Argentina. With the aim of developing management recommendations, the project included permanently monitoring the population to evaluate its dynamics and the ecological response of the individuals released into the area. Nine years later and after two releases of guanacos (113 individuals in 2007 without and 25 in 2011 with a pre-adaptation period), only 24 individuals, which conform three reproductive groups, and one group of solitary males were settled in the Park. Here I modeled a population viability analysis to evaluate extinction risk, using VORTEX software. Initial population structure, specified age distribution, mortality and reproductive rates, and mate monopolization recorded during field work were used in the model, whereas the remaining used demographic parameters, such as age of first offspring, maximum number of broods per year, mean foaling rate, and length of fecundity period, were taken from the literature. Each of the three different scenarios (without supplementation of individuals, and with a realistic and optimistic supplementation) and two possible catastrophic events (fires and food shortage) covering 100 years was repeated 1000 times. Even though the guanaco reintroduction project can be considered to have been partially successful since its start, the model predicts that the current reintroduced population could be extinct in the next few decades if no reinforcements occur, and that only a continuous supplementation can reach the probability that the population survives over the next 100 years. I conclude that, so far, the current population is at a high risk of extinction if further supplementation of individuals is discontinued. PMID:27741302

Reintroducing Guanaco in the Upper Belt of Central Argentina: Using Population Viability Analysis to Evaluate Extinction Risk and Management Priorities.

PubMed

Barri, Fernando Rafael

2016-01-01

Wildlife reintroduction is an increasingly used strategy to reverse anthropocene defaunation. For the purpose of ecosystem restoration, in 2007 the guanaco (Lama guanicoe) was reintroduced to the Quebrada del Condorito National Park, situated in the mountains of central Argentina. With the aim of developing management recommendations, the project included permanently monitoring the population to evaluate its dynamics and the ecological response of the individuals released into the area. Nine years later and after two releases of guanacos (113 individuals in 2007 without and 25 in 2011 with a pre-adaptation period), only 24 individuals, which conform three reproductive groups, and one group of solitary males were settled in the Park. Here I modeled a population viability analysis to evaluate extinction risk, using VORTEX software. Initial population structure, specified age distribution, mortality and reproductive rates, and mate monopolization recorded during field work were used in the model, whereas the remaining used demographic parameters, such as age of first offspring, maximum number of broods per year, mean foaling rate, and length of fecundity period, were taken from the literature. Each of the three different scenarios (without supplementation of individuals, and with a realistic and optimistic supplementation) and two possible catastrophic events (fires and food shortage) covering 100 years was repeated 1000 times. Even though the guanaco reintroduction project can be considered to have been partially successful since its start, the model predicts that the current reintroduced population could be extinct in the next few decades if no reinforcements occur, and that only a continuous supplementation can reach the probability that the population survives over the next 100 years. I conclude that, so far, the current population is at a high risk of extinction if further supplementation of individuals is discontinued.

Abundance Trends and Status of the Little Colorado River Population of Humpback Chub: An Update Considering 1989-2006 Data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coggins,, Lewis G.

2008-01-01

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 1967, the humpback chub (Gila cypha) (HBC) was added to the federal list of endangered species and is today protected under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. Only six populations of humpback chub are currently known to exist, five in the Colorado River Basin above Lees Ferry, Arizona, and one in Grand Canyon, Arizona. The majority of Grand Canyon humpback chub are found in the Little Colorado River (LCR)-the largest tributary to the Colorado River in Grand Canyon-and the Colorado River near its confluence with the Little Colorado River. Monitoring and research of the Grand Canyon humpback chub population is overseen by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) under the auspices of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP), a Federal initiative to protect and improve resources downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. This report provides updated information on the status and trends of the LCR population in light of new information and refined assessment methodology. An earlier assessment of the LCR population (Coggins and others, 2006a) used data collected during 1989?2002; the assessment provided here includes that data and additional data collected through 2006. Catch-rate indices, closed population mark-recapture model abundance estimates, results from the original age-structured mark recapture (ASMR) model (Coggins and others, 2006b), and a newly refined ASMR model are presented. This report also seeks to (1) formally evaluate alternative stock assessment models using Pearson residual analyses and information theoretic procedures, (2) use mark-recapture data to estimate the relationship between HBC age and length, (3) translate uncertainty in the assignment of individual fish age to resulting estimates of recruitment and abundance from the ASMR model, and (4) evaluate past and present stock assessments considering the available data sources and analyses, recognizing the limitations inherent in both. A major task of this study was to improve the overall methodology used to conduct HBC stock assessment by addressing concerns identified in an independent review conducted in 2003 (Kitchell and others, 2003). The review report identified that the current technique of assigning age to individual fish based on length was a potential source of bias in ASMR estimates of abundance and recruitment, and called for a more complete examination of this potential error source. Additionally, the review suggested that further work to develop procedures to better arbitrate among alternative assessment models (e.g., ASMR 1?3) would be beneficial. To address the first of the concerns identified by the independent review, this study uses mark-recapture data to develop a temperature-dependent growth model to characterize the relationship between HBC age and length. This model attempts to account for temperature differences resulting from both ontogenetic habitat shifts between the Little Colorado and the mainstem Colorado Rivers as well as seasonal variation in water temperature within the LCR. The resulting growth model is then used to characterize the error in assigning age to individual fish based on length. Results presented in this study suggest that ageing error does not result in large bias in either abundance or recruitment estimates from the ASMR model. However, incorporating ageing error into the assessment does result in less precise estimates, particularly for recruitment. To address the second concern brought forward in the review report related to model selection procedures, this study arbitrated among the competing models by both examining model fit using Pearson residual analyses and considering information theoretic measures. Although adult abundance estimates and trend varied little among all models considered, these procedures identified ASMR 3 as the model whose underlying assumptions were most consistent with the data. Because ASMR 3 is

APOE Genotype Modulates Proton Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy Metabolites in the Aging Brain

PubMed Central

Gomar, Jesus J.; Gordon, Marc L.; Dickinson, Dwight; Kingsley, Peter B.; Uluğ, Aziz M.; Keehlisen, Lynda; Huet, Sarah; Buthorn, Justin J.; Koppel, Jeremy; Christen, Erica; Conejero-Goldberg, Concepcion; Davies, Peter; Goldberg, Terry E.

2013-01-01

Background Proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS) studies on healthy aging have reported inconsistent findings and have not systematically taken into account the possible modulatory effect of APOE genotype. We aimed to quantify brain metabolite changes in healthy subjects in relation to age and the presence of the APOE E4 genetic risk factor for Alzheimer's disease. Additionally, we examined these measures in relation to cognition. Methods We studied a cohort of 112 normal adults between 50 and 86 years old who were genotyped for APOE genetic polymorphism. Measurements of 1H-MRS metabolites were obtained in the posterior cingulate and precuneus region. Measures of general cognitive functioning, memory, executive function, semantic fluency, and speed of processing were also obtained. Results General linear model analysis demonstrated that older APOE E4 carriers had significantly higher choline/creatine and myoinositol/creatine ratios than APOE E3 homozygotes. Structural equation modeling resulted in a model with an excellent goodness of fit and in which the APOE × age interaction and APOE status each had a significant effect on 1H-MRS metabolites (choline/creatine and myo-inositol/creatine). Furthermore, the APOE × age variable modulation of cognition was mediated by 1H-MRS metabolites. Conclusions In a healthy aging normal population, choline/creatine and myo-inositol/creatine ratios were significantly increased in APOE E4 carriers, suggesting the presence of neuroinflammatory processes and greater membrane turnover in older carriers. Structural equation modeling analysis confirmed these possible neurodegenerative markers and also indicated the mediator role of these metabolites on cognitive performance among older APOE E4 carriers. PMID:23831342

Modeled Impacts of Chronic Wasting Disease on White-Tailed Deer in a Semi-Arid Environment.

PubMed

Foley, Aaron M; Hewitt, David G; DeYoung, Charles A; DeYoung, Randy W; Schnupp, Matthew J

2016-01-01

White-tailed deer are a culturally and economically important game species in North America, especially in South Texas. The recent discovery of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in captive deer facilities in Texas has increased concern about the potential emergence of CWD in free-ranging deer. The concern is exacerbated because much of the South Texas region is a semi-arid environment with variable rainfall, where precipitation is strongly correlated with fawn recruitment. Further, the marginally productive rangelands, in combination with erratic fawn recruitment, results in populations that are frequently density-independent, and thus sensitive to additive mortality. It is unknown how a deer population in semi-arid regions would respond to the presence of CWD. We used long-term empirical datasets from a lightly harvested (2% annual harvest) population in conjunction with 3 prevalence growth rates from CWD afflicted areas (0.26%, 0.83%, and 2.3% increases per year) via a multi-stage partially deterministic model to simulate a deer population for 25 years under four scenarios: 1) without CWD and without harvest, 2) with CWD and without harvest, 3) with CWD and male harvest only, and 4) with CWD and harvest of both sexes. The modeled populations without CWD and without harvest averaged a 1.43% annual increase over 25 years; incorporation of 2% annual harvest of both sexes resulted in a stable population. The model with slowest CWD prevalence rate growth (0.26% annually) without harvest resulted in stable populations but the addition of 1% harvest resulted in population declines. Further, the male age structure in CWD models became skewed to younger age classes. We incorporated fawn:doe ratios from three CWD afflicted areas in Wisconsin and Wyoming into the model with 0.26% annual increase in prevalence and populations did not begin to decline until ~10%, ~16%, and ~26% of deer were harvested annually. Deer populations in variable environments rely on high adult survivorship to buffer the low and erratic fawn recruitment rates. The increase in additive mortality rates for adults via CWD negatively impacted simulated population trends to the extent that hunter opportunity would be greatly reduced. Our results improve understanding of the potential influences of CWD on deer populations in semi-arid environments with implications for deer managers, disease ecologists, and policy makers.

Modeled Impacts of Chronic Wasting Disease on White-Tailed Deer in a Semi-Arid Environment

PubMed Central

Hewitt, David G.; DeYoung, Charles A.; DeYoung, Randy W.; Schnupp, Matthew J.

2016-01-01

White-tailed deer are a culturally and economically important game species in North America, especially in South Texas. The recent discovery of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in captive deer facilities in Texas has increased concern about the potential emergence of CWD in free-ranging deer. The concern is exacerbated because much of the South Texas region is a semi-arid environment with variable rainfall, where precipitation is strongly correlated with fawn recruitment. Further, the marginally productive rangelands, in combination with erratic fawn recruitment, results in populations that are frequently density-independent, and thus sensitive to additive mortality. It is unknown how a deer population in semi-arid regions would respond to the presence of CWD. We used long-term empirical datasets from a lightly harvested (2% annual harvest) population in conjunction with 3 prevalence growth rates from CWD afflicted areas (0.26%, 0.83%, and 2.3% increases per year) via a multi-stage partially deterministic model to simulate a deer population for 25 years under four scenarios: 1) without CWD and without harvest, 2) with CWD and without harvest, 3) with CWD and male harvest only, and 4) with CWD and harvest of both sexes. The modeled populations without CWD and without harvest averaged a 1.43% annual increase over 25 years; incorporation of 2% annual harvest of both sexes resulted in a stable population. The model with slowest CWD prevalence rate growth (0.26% annually) without harvest resulted in stable populations but the addition of 1% harvest resulted in population declines. Further, the male age structure in CWD models became skewed to younger age classes. We incorporated fawn:doe ratios from three CWD afflicted areas in Wisconsin and Wyoming into the model with 0.26% annual increase in prevalence and populations did not begin to decline until ~10%, ~16%, and ~26% of deer were harvested annually. Deer populations in variable environments rely on high adult survivorship to buffer the low and erratic fawn recruitment rates. The increase in additive mortality rates for adults via CWD negatively impacted simulated population trends to the extent that hunter opportunity would be greatly reduced. Our results improve understanding of the potential influences of CWD on deer populations in semi-arid environments with implications for deer managers, disease ecologists, and policy makers. PMID:27711208

[Development of Markov models for economics evaluation of strategies on hepatitis B vaccination and population-based antiviral treatment in China].

PubMed

Yang, P C; Zhang, S X; Sun, P P; Cai, Y L; Lin, Y; Zou, Y H

2017-07-10

Objective: To construct the Markov models to reflect the reality of prevention and treatment interventions against hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, simulate the natural history of HBV infection in different age groups and provide evidence for the economics evaluations of hepatitis B vaccination and population-based antiviral treatment in China. Methods: According to the theory and techniques of Markov chain, the Markov models of Chinese HBV epidemic were developed based on the national data and related literature both at home and abroad, including the settings of Markov model states, allowable transitions and initial and transition probabilities. The model construction, operation and verification were conducted by using software TreeAge Pro 2015. Results: Several types of Markov models were constructed to describe the disease progression of HBV infection in neonatal period, perinatal period or adulthood, the progression of chronic hepatitis B after antiviral therapy, hepatitis B prevention and control in adults, chronic hepatitis B antiviral treatment and the natural progression of chronic hepatitis B in general population. The model for the newborn was fundamental which included ten states, i.e . susceptiblity to HBV, HBsAg clearance, immune tolerance, immune clearance, low replication, HBeAg negative CHB, compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death. The susceptible state to HBV was excluded in the perinatal period model, and the immune tolerance state was excluded in the adulthood model. The model for general population only included two states, survive and death. Among the 5 types of models, there were 9 initial states assigned with initial probabilities, and 27 states for transition probabilities. The results of model verifications showed that the probability curves were basically consistent with the situation of HBV epidemic in China. Conclusion: The Markov models developed can be used in economics evaluation of hepatitis B vaccination and treatment for the elimination of HBV infection in China though the structures and parameters in the model have uncertainty with dynamic natures.

Population Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling for the Human Lactational Transfer of PCB 153 with Consideration of Worldwide Human Biomonitoring Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Redding, Laurel E.; Sohn, Michael D.; McKone, Thomas E.

2008-03-01

We developed a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model of PCB 153 in women, and predict its transfer via lactation to infants. The model is the first human, population-scale lactational model for PCB 153. Data in the literature provided estimates for model development and for performance assessment. Physiological parameters were taken from a cohort in Taiwan and from reference values in the literature. We estimated partition coefficients based on chemical structure and the lipid content in various body tissues. Using exposure data in Japan, we predicted acquired body burden of PCB 153 at an average childbearing age of 25 years and comparemore » predictions to measurements from studies in multiple countries. Forward-model predictions agree well with human biomonitoring measurements, as represented by summary statistics and uncertainty estimates. The model successfully describes the range of possible PCB 153 dispositions in maternal milk, suggesting a promising option for back estimating doses for various populations. One example of reverse dosimetry modeling was attempted using our PBPK model for possible exposure scenarios in Canadian Inuits who had the highest level of PCB 153 in their milk in the world.« less

[[Findings of a report on the population structure of rural market towns

PubMed

1985-07-29

This report concerns a survey on the characteristics of the population of four villages in Shunji county, located near Beijing, China. The survey, which was carried out in 1984, covered 12,652 individuals. The results show that the population of adult age is increasing and that a general trend toward demographic aging can be identified. The sex ratio is particularly high in the working ages. Fertility is currently below replacement level.

Integrated Population Pharmacokinetic Analysis of Rivaroxaban Across Multiple Patient Populations

PubMed Central

Zhang, Liping; Frede, Matthias; Kubitza, Dagmar; Mueck, Wolfgang; Schmidt, Stephan; Solms, Alexander; Yan, Xiaoyu; Garmann, Dirk

2018-01-01

The population pharmacokinetics (PK) of rivaroxaban have been evaluated in several population‐specific models. We developed an integrated population PK model using pooled data from 4,918 patients in 7 clinical trials across all approved indications. Effects of gender, age, and weight on apparent clearance (CL/F) and apparent volume of distribution (V/F), renal function, and comedication on CL/F, and relative bioavailability as a function of dose (F) were analyzed. Virtual subpopulations for exposure simulations were defined by age, creatinine clearance (CrCL) and body mass index (BMI). Rivaroxaban PK were adequately described by a one‐compartment disposition model with a first‐order absorption rate constant. Significant effects of CrCL, use of comedications, and study population on CL/F, age, weight, and gender on V/F, and dose on F were identified. CrCL had a modest influence on exposure, whereas age and BMI had a minor influence. The model was suitable to predict rivaroxaban exposure in patient subgroups of special interest. PMID:29660785

An evaluation of sex-age-kill (SAK) model performance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Skalski, John R.; Townsend, Richard L.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Boyce, Mark S.; Hansen, Lonnie P.; Kammermeyer, Kent

2009-01-01

The sex-age-kill (SAK) model is widely used to estimate abundance of harvested large mammals, including white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Despite a long history of use, few formal evaluations of SAK performance exist. We investigated how violations of the stable age distribution and stationary population assumption, changes to male or female harvest, stochastic effects (i.e., random fluctuations in recruitment and survival), and sampling efforts influenced SAK estimation. When the simulated population had a stable age distribution and λ > 1, the SAK model underestimated abundance. Conversely, when λ < 1, the SAK overestimated abundance. When changes to male harvest were introduced, SAK estimates were opposite the true population trend. In contrast, SAK estimates were robust to changes in female harvest rates. Stochastic effects caused SAK estimates to fluctuate about their equilibrium abundance, but the effect dampened as the size of the surveyed population increased. When we considered both stochastic effects and sampling error at a deer management unit scale the resultant abundance estimates were within ±121.9% of the true population level 95% of the time. These combined results demonstrate extreme sensitivity to model violations and scale of analysis. Without changes to model formulation, the SAK model will be biased when λ ≠ 1. Furthermore, any factor that alters the male harvest rate, such as changes to regulations or changes in hunter attitudes, will bias population estimates. Sex-age-kill estimates may be precise at large spatial scales, such as the state level, but less so at the individual management unit level. Alternative models, such as statistical age-at-harvest models, which require similar data types, might allow for more robust, broad-scale demographic assessments.

Continuous and Discrete Structured Population Models with Applications to Epidemiology and Marine Mammals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Tingting

In this dissertation, we develop structured population models to examine how changes in the environmental affect population processes. In Chapter 2, we develop a general continuous time size structured model describing a susceptible-infected (SI) population coupled with the environment. This model applies to problems arising in ecology, epidemiology, and cell biology. The model consists of a system of quasilinear hyperbolic partial differential equations coupled with a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations that represent the environment. We develop a second-order high resolution finite difference scheme to numerically solve the model. Convergence of this scheme to a weak solution with bounded total variation is proved. We numerically compare the second order high resolution scheme with a first order finite difference scheme. Higher order of convergence and high resolution property are observed in the second order finite difference scheme. In addition, we apply our model to a multi-host wildlife disease problem, questions regarding the impact of the initial population structure and transition rate within each host are numerically explored. In Chapter 3, we use a stage structured matrix model for wildlife population to study the recovery process of the population given an environmental disturbance. We focus on the time it takes for the population to recover to its pre-event level and develop general formulas to calculate the sensitivity or elasticity of the recovery time to changes in the initial population distribution, vital rates and event severity. Our results suggest that the recovery time is independent of the initial population size, but is sensitive to the initial population structure. Moreover, it is more sensitive to the reduction proportion to the vital rates of the population caused by the catastrophe event relative to the duration of impact of the event. We present the potential application of our model to the amphibian population dynamic and the recovery of a certain plant population. In addition, we explore, in details, the application of the model to the sperm whale population in Gulf of Mexico after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. In Chapter 4, we summarize the results from Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 and explore some further avenues of our research.

Associated pathways between neighborhood environment, community resource factors and leisure-time physical activity among Mexican-American adults in San Diego, CA

PubMed Central

Martinez, Suzanna M.; Ayala, Guadalupe X.; Patrick, Kevin; Arredondo, Elva M.; Roesch, Scott; Elder, John

2014-01-01

Purpose To examine pathways between individual, social, and environmental factors associated with leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) among Mexican-American adults. Design Cross-sectional design using random digit dialing to administer a structured telephone interview. Setting Mexican-American adults living in a U.S./Mexican border community in San Diego, CA (N=672). Measures Data were collected on LTPA, demographic characteristics, acculturation, and other psychosocial and environmental factors associated with LTPA. Analysis Structural equation modeling to test an a priori model of LTPA. Results Participants were mostly female (71%) with a mean age of 39 years (SD = 13). Only 32% of participants met PA guidelines in their leisure time, with men (39%) meeting the guidelines more than women (29%). Using structural equation modeling, neighborhood factors, both social and environmental, showed indirect relationships with meeting PA guidelines through community resource factors. Significant covariates included marital status and age. Conclusion Individual, social and environmental factors were associated with LTPA in this sample of Mexican-American adults. These findings can inform intervention studies that aim to increase LTPA in this population. PMID:22548422

Absorption line indices in the UV. I. Empirical and theoretical stellar population models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maraston, C.; Nieves Colmenárez, L.; Bender, R.; Thomas, D.

2009-01-01

Aims: Stellar absorption lines in the optical (e.g. the Lick system) have been extensively studied and constitute an important stellar population diagnostic for galaxies in the local universe and up to moderate redshifts. Proceeding towards higher look-back times, galaxies are younger and the ultraviolet becomes the relevant spectral region where the dominant stellar populations shine. A comprehensive study of ultraviolet absorption lines of stellar population models is however still lacking. With this in mind, we study absorption line indices in the far and mid-ultraviolet in order to determine age and metallicity indicators for UV-bright stellar populations in the local universe as well as at high redshift. Methods: We explore empirical and theoretical spectral libraries and use evolutionary population synthesis to compute synthetic line indices of stellar population models. From the empirical side, we exploit the IUE-low resolution library of stellar spectra and system of absorption lines, from which we derive analytical functions (fitting functions) describing the strength of stellar line indices as a function of gravity, temperature and metallicity. The fitting functions are entered into an evolutionary population synthesis code in order to compute the integrated line indices of stellar populations models. The same line indices are also directly evaluated on theoretical spectral energy distributions of stellar population models based on Kurucz high-resolution synthetic spectra, In order to select indices that can be used as age and/or metallicity indicators for distant galaxies and globular clusters, we compare the models to data of template globular clusters from the Magellanic Clouds with independently known ages and metallicities. Results: We provide synthetic line indices in the wavelength range ~1200 Å to ~3000 Å for stellar populations of various ages and metallicities.This adds several new indices to the already well-studied CIV and SiIV absorptions. Based on the comparison with globular cluster data, we select a set of 11 indices blueward of the 2000 Å rest-frame that allows us to recover well the ages and the metallicities of the clusters. These indices are ideal to study ages and metallicities of young galaxies at high redshift. We also provide the synthetic high-resolution stellar population SEDs.

Phenotypic factor analysis of psychopathology reveals a new body-related transdiagnostic factor.

PubMed

Pezzoli, Patrizia; Antfolk, Jan; Santtila, Pekka

2017-01-01

Comorbidity challenges the notion of mental disorders as discrete categories. An increasing body of literature shows that symptoms cut across traditional diagnostic boundaries and interact in shaping the latent structure of psychopathology. Using exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, we reveal the latent sources of covariation among nine measures of psychopathological functioning in a population-based sample of 13024 Finnish twins and their siblings. By implementing unidimensional, multidimensional, second-order, and bifactor models, we illustrate the relationships between observed variables, specific, and general latent factors. We also provide the first investigation to date of measurement invariance of the bifactor model of psychopathology across gender and age groups. Our main result is the identification of a distinct "Body" factor, alongside the previously identified Internalizing and Externalizing factors. We also report relevant cross-disorder associations, especially between body-related psychopathology and trait anger, as well as substantial sex and age differences in observed and latent means. The findings expand the meta-structure of psychopathology, with implications for empirical and clinical practice, and demonstrate shared mechanisms underlying attitudes towards nutrition, self-image, sexuality and anger, with gender- and age-specific features.

Modelling biological invasions: species traits, species interactions, and habitat heterogeneity.

PubMed

Cannas, Sergio A; Marco, Diana E; Páez, Sergio A

2003-05-01

In this paper we explore the integration of different factors to understand, predict and control ecological invasions, through a general cellular automaton model especially developed. The model includes life history traits of several species in a modular structure interacting multiple cellular automata. We performed simulations using field values corresponding to the exotic Gleditsia triacanthos and native co-dominant trees in a montane area. Presence of G. triacanthos juvenile bank was a determinant condition for invasion success. Main parameters influencing invasion velocity were mean seed dispersal distance and minimum reproductive age. Seed production had a small influence on the invasion velocity. Velocities predicted by the model agreed well with estimations from field data. Values of population density predicted matched field values closely. The modular structure of the model, the explicit interaction between the invader and the native species, and the simplicity of parameters and transition rules are novel features of the model.

Simulating the evolution of glyphosate resistance in grains farming in northern Australia

PubMed Central

Thornby, David F.; Walker, Steve R.

2009-01-01

Background and Aims The evolution of resistance to herbicides is a substantial problem in contemporary agriculture. Solutions to this problem generally consist of the use of practices to control the resistant population once it evolves, and/or to institute preventative measures before populations become resistant. Herbicide resistance evolves in populations over years or decades, so predicting the effectiveness of preventative strategies in particular relies on computational modelling approaches. While models of herbicide resistance already exist, none deals with the complex regional variability in the northern Australian sub-tropical grains farming region. For this reason, a new computer model was developed. Methods The model consists of an age- and stage-structured population model of weeds, with an existing crop model used to simulate plant growth and competition, and extensions to the crop model added to simulate seed bank ecology and population genetics factors. Using awnless barnyard grass (Echinochloa colona) as a test case, the model was used to investigate the likely rate of evolution under conditions expected to produce high selection pressure. Key Results Simulating continuous summer fallows with glyphosate used as the only means of weed control resulted in predicted resistant weed populations after approx. 15 years. Validation of the model against the paddock history for the first real-world glyphosate-resistant awnless barnyard grass population shows that the model predicted resistance evolution to within a few years of the real situation. Conclusions This validation work shows that empirical validation of herbicide resistance models is problematic. However, the model simulates the complexities of sub-tropical grains farming in Australia well, and can be used to investigate, generate and improve glyphosate resistance prevention strategies. PMID:19567415

An approximation of herd effect due to vaccinating children against seasonal influenza - a potential solution to the incorporation of indirect effects into static models.

PubMed

Van Vlaenderen, Ilse; Van Bellinghen, Laure-Anne; Meier, Genevieve; Nautrup, Barbara Poulsen

2013-01-22

Indirect herd effect from vaccination of children offers potential for improving the effectiveness of influenza prevention in the remaining unvaccinated population. Static models used in cost-effectiveness analyses cannot dynamically capture herd effects. The objective of this study was to develop a methodology to allow herd effect associated with vaccinating children against seasonal influenza to be incorporated into static models evaluating the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination. Two previously published linear equations for approximation of herd effects in general were compared with the results of a structured literature review undertaken using PubMed searches to identify data on herd effects specific to influenza vaccination. A linear function was fitted to point estimates from the literature using the sum of squared residuals. The literature review identified 21 publications on 20 studies for inclusion. Six studies provided data on a mathematical relationship between effective vaccine coverage in subgroups and reduction of influenza infection in a larger unvaccinated population. These supported a linear relationship when effective vaccine coverage in a subgroup population was between 20% and 80%. Three studies evaluating herd effect at a community level, specifically induced by vaccinating children, provided point estimates for fitting linear equations. The fitted linear equation for herd protection in the target population for vaccination (children) was slightly less conservative than a previously published equation for herd effects in general. The fitted linear equation for herd protection in the non-target population was considerably less conservative than the previously published equation. This method of approximating herd effect requires simple adjustments to the annual baseline risk of influenza in static models: (1) for the age group targeted by the childhood vaccination strategy (i.e. children); and (2) for other age groups not targeted (e.g. adults and/or elderly). Two approximations provide a linear relationship between effective coverage and reduction in the risk of infection. The first is a conservative approximation, recommended as a base-case for cost-effectiveness evaluations. The second, fitted to data extracted from a structured literature review, provides a less conservative estimate of herd effect, recommended for sensitivity analyses.

[Products of bee-keeping and prophylaxis of premature aging].

PubMed

Dubtsova, E A; Kas'ianenko, V I; Komissarenko, I A; Lazebnik, L B

2008-01-01

Natural bee honey is one of compound natural products in which structure more than four hundred various components are revealed, including enzymes, organic acids, vitamins and microelements. One of the basic biological properties of honey is the ability to slow down processes of aging, because there are vitamins E, C, enzymes with antioxidative properties and a succinic acid in its structure. Examination of 193 beekeepers daily using honey in quantity of 57.2 +/- 8.6 gram with definition of their biological age was carried out. The received results have been compared to results of examination of 35 workers who are doing manual labour in the same degree, as the beekeepers, but do not use products of beekeeping. The research has shown that the biological age of 70% of beekeepers is lower than that of the average in population, 15% of beekeepers are of the same and 15% are of higher biological age than that of the average in population. The biological age of people in the group of comparison is lower than the average in population only in 28.6% of cases, corresponds in 31.4% and is higher than the average in population in 40.0% of cases. The biological age of beekeepers appeared not only less, than of the persons who are not using products of beekeeping, but it also is less than biological age of the population as a whole.

Linking extinction-colonization dynamics to genetic structure in a salamander metapopulation.

PubMed

Cosentino, Bradley J; Phillips, Christopher A; Schooley, Robert L; Lowe, Winsor H; Douglas, Marlis R

2012-04-22

Theory predicts that founder effects have a primary role in determining metapopulation genetic structure. However, ecological factors that affect extinction-colonization dynamics may also create spatial variation in the strength of genetic drift and migration. We tested the hypothesis that ecological factors underlying extinction-colonization dynamics influenced the genetic structure of a tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum) metapopulation. We used empirical data on metapopulation dynamics to make a priori predictions about the effects of population age and ecological factors on genetic diversity and divergence among 41 populations. Metapopulation dynamics of A. tigrinum depended on wetland area, connectivity and presence of predatory fish. We found that newly colonized populations were more genetically differentiated than established populations, suggesting that founder effects influenced genetic structure. However, ecological drivers of metapopulation dynamics were more important than age in predicting genetic structure. Consistent with demographic predictions from metapopulation theory, genetic diversity and divergence depended on wetland area and connectivity. Divergence was greatest in small, isolated wetlands where genetic diversity was low. Our results show that ecological factors underlying metapopulation dynamics can be key determinants of spatial genetic structure, and that habitat area and isolation may mediate the contributions of drift and migration to divergence and evolution in local populations.

Radiation-induced aging of PDMS Elastomer TR-55: a summary of constitutive, mesoscale, and population-based models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maiti, A; Weisgraber, T. H.; Dinh, L. N.

Filled and cross-linked elastomeric rubbers are versatile network materials with a multitude of applications ranging from artificial organs and biomedical devices to cushions, coatings, adhesives, interconnects, and seismic-isolation-, thermal-, and electrical barriers. External factors like mechanical stress, temperature fluctuations, or radiation are known to create chemical changes in such materials that can directly affect the molecular weight distribution (MWD) of the polymer between cross-links and alter the structural and mechanical properties. From a Materials Science point of view it is highly desirable to understand, effect, and manipulate such property changes in a controlled manner. In this report we summarize ourmore » modeling efforts on a polysiloxane elastomer TR-55, which is an important component in several of our systems, and representative of a wide class of filled rubber materials. The primary aging driver in this work has been γ-radiation, and a variety of modeling approaches have been employed, including constitutive, mesoscale, and population-based models. The work utilizes diverse experimental data, including mechanical stress-strain and compression set measurements, as well as MWD measurements using multiquantum NMR.« less

Using Massive Star Clusters in Merger Remnants To Provide Reference Colors of Intermediate-Age Stellar Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goudfrooij, Paul

2009-07-01

Much current research in cosmology and galaxy formation relies on an accurate interpretation of colors of galaxies in terms of their evolutionary state, i.e., in terms of ages and metallicities. One particularly important topic is the ability to identify early-type galaxies at "intermediate" ages { 500 Myr - 5 Gyr}, i.e., the period between the end of star formation and half the age of the universe. Currently, integrated-light studies must rely on population synthesis models which rest upon spectral libraries of stars in the solar neighborhood. These models have a difficult time correctly incorporating short-lived evolutionary phases such as thermally pulsing AGB stars, which produce up to 80% of the flux in the near-IR in this age range. Furthermore, intermediate-age star clusters in the Local Group do not represent proper templates against which to calibrate population synthesis models in this age range, because their masses are too low to render the effect of stochastic fluctuations due to the number of bright RGB and AGB stars negligible. As a consequence, current population synthesis models have trouble reconciling the evolutionary state of high-redshift galaxies from optical versus near-IR colors. We propose a simple and effective solution to this issue, namely obtaining high-quality EMPIRICAL colors of massive globular clusters in galaxy merger remnants which span this important age range. These colors should serve as relevant references, both to identify intermediate-age objects in the local and distant universe and as calibrators for population synthesis modellers.

Is Small Still Beautiful for the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire? Novel Findings Using Exploratory Structural Equation Modeling.

PubMed

Garrido, Luis Eduardo; Barrada, Juan Ramón; Aguasvivas, José Armando; Martínez-Molina, Agustín; Arias, Víctor B; Golino, Hudson F; Legaz, Eva; Ferrís, Gloria; Rojo-Moreno, Luis

2018-06-01

During the present decade a large body of research has employed confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to evaluate the factor structure of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) across multiple languages and cultures. However, because CFA can produce strongly biased estimations when the population cross-loadings differ meaningfully from zero, it may not be the most appropriate framework to model the SDQ responses. With this in mind, the current study sought to assess the factorial structure of the SDQ using the more flexible exploratory structural equation modeling approach. Using a large-scale Spanish sample composed of 67,253 youths aged between 10 and 18 years ( M = 14.16, SD = 1.07), the results showed that CFA provided a severely biased and overly optimistic assessment of the underlying structure of the SDQ. In contrast, exploratory structural equation modeling revealed a generally weak factorial structure, including questionable indicators with large cross-loadings, multiple error correlations, and significant wording variance. A subsequent Monte Carlo study showed that sample sizes greater than 4,000 would be needed to adequately recover the SDQ loading structure. The findings from this study prevent recommending the SDQ as a screening tool and suggest caution when interpreting previous results in the literature based on CFA modeling.

Welfare Systems, Aging and Work: An OECD Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Visco, Ignazio

One of the major structural changes facing European economies is the adjustment to an older and more slowly growing population. Aging and lower fertility rates will result in a smaller proportion of the population being in the working age, especially after the year 2010. Estimates are that by 2030 there could be only 2 employed persons for every…

Variation in probability of first reproduction of Weddell seals.

PubMed

Hadley, Gillian L; Rotella, Jay J; Garrott, Robert A; Nichols, James D

2006-09-01

1. For many species, when to begin reproduction is an important life-history decision that varies by individual and can have substantial implications for lifetime reproductive success and fitness. 2. We estimated age-specific probabilities of first-time breeding and modelled variation in these rates to determine age at first reproduction and understand why it varies in a population of Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We used multistate mark-recapture modelling methods and encounter histories of 4965 known-age female seals to test predictions about age-related variation in probability of first reproduction and the effects of annual variation, cohort and population density. 3. Mean age at first reproduction in this southerly located study population (7.62 years of age, SD=1.71) was greater than age at first reproduction for a Weddell seal population at a more northerly and typical latitude for breeding Weddell seals (mean=4-5 years of age). This difference suggests that age at first reproduction may be influenced by whether a population inhabits the core or periphery of its range. 4. Age at first reproduction varied from 4 to 14 years, but there was no age by which all seals recruited to the breeding population, suggesting that individual heterogeneity exists among females in this population. 5. In the best model, the probability of breeding for the first time varied by age and year, and the amount of annual variation varied with age (average variance ratio for age-specific rates=4.3%). 6. Our results affirmed the predictions of life-history theory that age at first reproduction in long-lived mammals will be sensitive to environmental variation. In terms of life-history evolution, this variability suggests that Weddell seals display flexibility in age at first reproduction in order to maximize reproductive output under varying environmental conditions. Future analyses will attempt to test predictions regarding relationships between environmental covariates and annual variation in age at first reproduction and evaluate the relationship between age at first reproduction and lifetime reproductive success.

Aging in Mexico: Population Trends and Emerging Issues.

PubMed

Angel, Jacqueline L; Vega, William; López-Ortega, Mariana

2016-12-07

Although all nations in the America's face a common demographic reality of longevity, declining fertility rates and changes in family roles a growing body of research points to a dramatic demographic transformation in Mexico. Although Mexico's population is relatively young, with a median age of 27.9 in 2015, it will age rapidly in coming years, increasing to 42 years by 2050. The rapid median age in the nation also reflects the growing proportion of people 65 or older, and is expected to triple to 20.2% by 2050. This article examines how the age and gender structure of Mexico offers important insights about current and future political and social stability, as well as economic development. Mexico is the world's eleventh largest country in terms of population size and the "demographic dividend" of a large youthful population is giving way to a growing older population that will inevitably place demands on health care and social security. The shift in age structure will result in increased dependency of retirees on the working-age population in the next 20 years. Mexico does not provide universal coverage of social security benefits and less than half of the labor force is covered by any pension or retirement plan. As a result, elderly Mexicans often continue working into old age. The high total poverty rate in the country, especially among the older population magnifies the problem of the potential dependency burden. The article ends with a discussion of key public policy issues related to aging in Mexico. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impact of the HIV epidemic on population and household structure: the dynamics and evidence to date.

PubMed

Heuveline, Patrick

2004-06-01

HIV is contracted most frequently at birth and during early adulthood. The epidemic may thus impact the demographic structure and the household structure of affected populations. This paper reviews earlier evidence of such an impact, uses demographic theory to anticipate its changes over time, and reviews the most recent evidence for indications of these changes. Modest increases in the male : female ratio are beginning to show within certain age groups only (approximately 15% among 25-34 year olds). Similarly sized increases in the proportion of 15-29 year olds relative to 30-54 year olds are observed in some age pyramids. These 'youth bulges' are expected to fade out, whereas an aging effect phases in with the fertility impact of the epidemic. In the longer run, the size of all age groups will be reduced, but relatively less so for middle-aged adults. Proportions of orphans and widows have increased in the most affected countries. Fewer remarriage probabilities for widows were observed. Resulting increases in the proportion of female-headed households should only be temporary, as female mortality is catching up with male mortality. The number of double orphans is beginning to increase, but overall, orphans continue to live predominantly with a family member, most often the grandparents if not with the surviving parent. To date, the epidemic's impact on the population and household structure has been limited by demographic (aging) and social (adaptive movements of kin across households) processes that contribute to diffuse the epidemic throughout the entire population and all households.

Seven challenges for metapopulation models of epidemics, including households models.

PubMed

Ball, Frank; Britton, Tom; House, Thomas; Isham, Valerie; Mollison, Denis; Pellis, Lorenzo; Scalia Tomba, Gianpaolo

2015-03-01

This paper considers metapopulation models in the general sense, i.e. where the population is partitioned into sub-populations (groups, patches,...), irrespective of the biological interpretation they have, e.g. spatially segregated large sub-populations, small households or hosts themselves modelled as populations of pathogens. This framework has traditionally provided an attractive approach to incorporating more realistic contact structure into epidemic models, since it often preserves analytic tractability (in stochastic as well as deterministic models) but also captures the most salient structural inhomogeneity in contact patterns in many applied contexts. Despite the progress that has been made in both the theory and application of such metapopulation models, we present here several major challenges that remain for future work, focusing on models that, in contrast to agent-based ones, are amenable to mathematical analysis. The challenges range from clarifying the usefulness of systems of weakly-coupled large sub-populations in modelling the spread of specific diseases to developing a theory for endemic models with household structure. They include also developing inferential methods for data on the emerging phase of epidemics, extending metapopulation models to more complex forms of human social structure, developing metapopulation models to reflect spatial population structure, developing computationally efficient methods for calculating key epidemiological model quantities, and integrating within- and between-host dynamics in models. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decomposing variation in male reproductive success: age-specific variances and covariances through extra-pair and within-pair reproduction.

PubMed

Lebigre, Christophe; Arcese, Peter; Reid, Jane M

2013-07-01

Age-specific variances and covariances in reproductive success shape the total variance in lifetime reproductive success (LRS), age-specific opportunities for selection, and population demographic variance and effective size. Age-specific (co)variances in reproductive success achieved through different reproductive routes must therefore be quantified to predict population, phenotypic and evolutionary dynamics in age-structured populations. While numerous studies have quantified age-specific variation in mean reproductive success, age-specific variances and covariances in reproductive success, and the contributions of different reproductive routes to these (co)variances, have not been comprehensively quantified in natural populations. We applied 'additive' and 'independent' methods of variance decomposition to complete data describing apparent (social) and realised (genetic) age-specific reproductive success across 11 cohorts of socially monogamous but genetically polygynandrous song sparrows (Melospiza melodia). We thereby quantified age-specific (co)variances in male within-pair and extra-pair reproductive success (WPRS and EPRS) and the contributions of these (co)variances to the total variances in age-specific reproductive success and LRS. 'Additive' decomposition showed that within-age and among-age (co)variances in WPRS across males aged 2-4 years contributed most to the total variance in LRS. Age-specific (co)variances in EPRS contributed relatively little. However, extra-pair reproduction altered age-specific variances in reproductive success relative to the social mating system, and hence altered the relative contributions of age-specific reproductive success to the total variance in LRS. 'Independent' decomposition showed that the (co)variances in age-specific WPRS, EPRS and total reproductive success, and the resulting opportunities for selection, varied substantially across males that survived to each age. Furthermore, extra-pair reproduction increased the variance in age-specific reproductive success relative to the social mating system to a degree that increased across successive age classes. This comprehensive decomposition of the total variances in age-specific reproductive success and LRS into age-specific (co)variances attributable to two reproductive routes showed that within-age and among-age covariances contributed substantially to the total variance and that extra-pair reproduction can alter the (co)variance structure of age-specific reproductive success. Such covariances and impacts should consequently be integrated into theoretical assessments of demographic and evolutionary processes in age-structured populations. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Assessment of Public Health and Economic Impact of Intranasal Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccination of Children in France Using a Dynamic Transmission Model.

PubMed

Gerlier, L; Lamotte, M; Grenèche, S; Lenne, X; Carrat, F; Weil-Olivier, C; Damm, O; Schwehm, M; Eichner, M

2017-04-01

We estimated the epidemiological and economic impact of extending the French influenza vaccination programme from at-risk/elderly (≥65 years) only to healthy children (2-17 years). A deterministic, age-structured, dynamic transmission model was used to simulate the transmission of influenza in the French population, using the current vaccination coverage with trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV) in at-risk/elderly individuals (current strategy) or gradually extending the vaccination to healthy children (aged 2-17 years) with intranasal, quadrivalent live-attenuated influenza vaccine (QLAIV) from current uptake up to 50% (evaluated strategy). Epidemiological, medical resource use and cost data were taken from international literature and country-specific information. The model was calibrated to the observed numbers of influenza-like illness visits/year. The 10-year number of symptomatic cases of confirmed influenza and direct medical costs ('all-payer') were calculated for the 0-17- (direct and indirect effects) and ≥18-year-old (indirect effect). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for the total population, using a 4% discount rate/year. Assuming 2.3 million visits/year and 1960 deaths/year, the model calibration yielded an all-year average basic reproduction number (R 0 ) of 1.27. In the population aged 0-17 years, QLAIV prevented 865,000 influenza cases/year (58.4%), preventing 10-year direct medical expenses of €374 million. In those aged ≥18 years with unchanged TIV coverage, 1.2 million cases/year were averted (27.6%) via indirect effects (additionally prevented expenses, €457 million). On average, 613 influenza-related deaths were averted annually overall. The ICER was €18,001/life-year gained. The evaluated strategy had a 98% probability of being cost-effective at a €31,000/life-year gained threshold. The model demonstrated strong direct and indirect benefits of protecting healthy children against influenza with QLAIV on public health and economic outcomes in France.

A common brain network links development, aging, and vulnerability to disease.

PubMed

Douaud, Gwenaëlle; Groves, Adrian R; Tamnes, Christian K; Westlye, Lars Tjelta; Duff, Eugene P; Engvig, Andreas; Walhovd, Kristine B; James, Anthony; Gass, Achim; Monsch, Andreas U; Matthews, Paul M; Fjell, Anders M; Smith, Stephen M; Johansen-Berg, Heidi

2014-12-09

Several theories link processes of development and aging in humans. In neuroscience, one model posits for instance that healthy age-related brain degeneration mirrors development, with the areas of the brain thought to develop later also degenerating earlier. However, intrinsic evidence for such a link between healthy aging and development in brain structure remains elusive. Here, we show that a data-driven analysis of brain structural variation across 484 healthy participants (8-85 y) reveals a largely--but not only--transmodal network whose lifespan pattern of age-related change intrinsically supports this model of mirroring development and aging. We further demonstrate that this network of brain regions, which develops relatively late during adolescence and shows accelerated degeneration in old age compared with the rest of the brain, characterizes areas of heightened vulnerability to unhealthy developmental and aging processes, as exemplified by schizophrenia and Alzheimer's disease, respectively. Specifically, this network, while derived solely from healthy subjects, spatially recapitulates the pattern of brain abnormalities observed in both schizophrenia and Alzheimer's disease. This network is further associated in our large-scale healthy population with intellectual ability and episodic memory, whose impairment contributes to key symptoms of schizophrenia and Alzheimer's disease. Taken together, our results suggest that the common spatial pattern of abnormalities observed in these two disorders, which emerge at opposite ends of the life spectrum, might be influenced by the timing of their separate and distinct pathological processes in disrupting healthy cerebral development and aging, respectively.

Analysis of near infrared spectra for age-grading of wild populations of Anopheles gambiae.

PubMed

Krajacich, Benjamin J; Meyers, Jacob I; Alout, Haoues; Dabiré, Roch K; Dowell, Floyd E; Foy, Brian D

2017-11-07

Understanding the age-structure of mosquito populations, especially malaria vectors such as Anopheles gambiae, is important for assessing the risk of infectious mosquitoes, and how vector control interventions may impact this risk. The use of near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) for age-grading has been demonstrated previously on laboratory and semi-field mosquitoes, but to date has not been utilized on wild-caught mosquitoes whose age is externally validated via parity status or parasite infection stage. In this study, we developed regression and classification models using NIRS on datasets of wild An. gambiae (s.l.) reared from larvae collected from the field in Burkina Faso, and two laboratory strains. We compared the accuracy of these models for predicting the ages of wild-caught mosquitoes that had been scored for their parity status as well as for positivity for Plasmodium sporozoites. Regression models utilizing variable selection increased predictive accuracy over the more common full-spectrum partial least squares (PLS) approach for cross-validation of the datasets, validation, and independent test sets. Models produced from datasets that included the greatest range of mosquito samples (i.e. different sampling locations and times) had the highest predictive accuracy on independent testing sets, though overall accuracy on these samples was low. For classification, we found that intramodel accuracy ranged between 73.5-97.0% for grouping of mosquitoes into "early" and "late" age classes, with the highest prediction accuracy found in laboratory colonized mosquitoes. However, this accuracy was decreased on test sets, with the highest classification of an independent set of wild-caught larvae reared to set ages being 69.6%. Variation in NIRS data, likely from dietary, genetic, and other factors limits the accuracy of this technique with wild-caught mosquitoes. Alternative algorithms may help improve prediction accuracy, but care should be taken to either maximize variety in models or minimize confounders.

Stochastic multi-scale models of competition within heterogeneous cellular populations: Simulation methods and mean-field analysis.

PubMed

Cruz, Roberto de la; Guerrero, Pilar; Spill, Fabian; Alarcón, Tomás

2016-10-21

We propose a modelling framework to analyse the stochastic behaviour of heterogeneous, multi-scale cellular populations. We illustrate our methodology with a particular example in which we study a population with an oxygen-regulated proliferation rate. Our formulation is based on an age-dependent stochastic process. Cells within the population are characterised by their age (i.e. time elapsed since they were born). The age-dependent (oxygen-regulated) birth rate is given by a stochastic model of oxygen-dependent cell cycle progression. Once the birth rate is determined, we formulate an age-dependent birth-and-death process, which dictates the time evolution of the cell population. The population is under a feedback loop which controls its steady state size (carrying capacity): cells consume oxygen which in turn fuels cell proliferation. We show that our stochastic model of cell cycle progression allows for heterogeneity within the cell population induced by stochastic effects. Such heterogeneous behaviour is reflected in variations in the proliferation rate. Within this set-up, we have established three main results. First, we have shown that the age to the G1/S transition, which essentially determines the birth rate, exhibits a remarkably simple scaling behaviour. Besides the fact that this simple behaviour emerges from a rather complex model, this allows for a huge simplification of our numerical methodology. A further result is the observation that heterogeneous populations undergo an internal process of quasi-neutral competition. Finally, we investigated the effects of cell-cycle-phase dependent therapies (such as radiation therapy) on heterogeneous populations. In particular, we have studied the case in which the population contains a quiescent sub-population. Our mean-field analysis and numerical simulations confirm that, if the survival fraction of the therapy is too high, rescue of the quiescent population occurs. This gives rise to emergence of resistance to therapy since the rescued population is less sensitive to therapy. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Antibody responses to avian influenza viruses in wild birds broaden with age

PubMed Central

Manvell, Ruth J.; Schulenburg, Bodo; Shell, Wendy; Wikramaratna, Paul S.; Perrins, Christopher; Sheldon, Ben C.; Brown, Ian H.; Pybus, Oliver G.

2016-01-01

For viruses such as avian influenza, immunity within a host population can drive the emergence of new strains by selecting for viruses with novel antigens that avoid immune recognition. The accumulation of acquired immunity with age is hypothesized to affect how influenza viruses emerge and spread in species of different lifespans. Despite its importance for understanding the behaviour of avian influenza viruses, little is known about age-related accumulation of immunity in the virus's primary reservoir, wild birds. To address this, we studied the age structure of immune responses to avian influenza virus in a wild swan population (Cygnus olor), before and after the population experienced an outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in 2008. We performed haemagglutination inhibition assays on sampled sera for five avian influenza strains and show that breadth of response accumulates with age. The observed age-related distribution of antibody responses to avian influenza strains may explain the age-dependent mortality observed during the highly pathogenic H5N1 outbreak. Age structures and species lifespan are probably important determinants of viral epidemiology and virulence in birds. PMID:28003449

Spatio-temporal dynamics of pneumonia in bighorn sheep.

PubMed

Cassirer, E Frances; Plowright, Raina K; Manlove, Kezia R; Cross, Paul C; Dobson, Andrew P; Potter, Kathleen A; Hudson, Peter J

2013-05-01

1. Bighorn sheep mortality related to pneumonia is a primary factor limiting population recovery across western North America, but management has been constrained by an incomplete understanding of the disease. We analysed patterns of pneumonia-caused mortality over 14 years in 16 interconnected bighorn sheep populations to gain insights into underlying disease processes. 2. We observed four age-structured classes of annual pneumonia mortality patterns: all-age, lamb-only, secondary all-age and adult-only. Although there was considerable variability within classes, overall they differed in persistence within and impact on populations. Years with pneumonia-induced mortality occurring simultaneously across age classes (i.e. all-age) appeared to be a consequence of pathogen invasion into a naïve population and resulted in immediate population declines. Subsequently, low recruitment due to frequent high mortality outbreaks in lambs, probably due to association with chronically infected ewes, posed a significant obstacle to population recovery. Secondary all-age events occurred in previously exposed populations when outbreaks in lambs were followed by lower rates of pneumonia-induced mortality in adults. Infrequent pneumonia events restricted to adults were usually of short duration with low mortality. 3. Acute pneumonia-induced mortality in adults was concentrated in fall and early winter around the breeding season when rams are more mobile and the sexes commingle. In contrast, mortality restricted to lambs peaked in summer when ewes and lambs were concentrated in nursery groups. 4. We detected weak synchrony in adult pneumonia between adjacent populations, but found no evidence for landscape-scale extrinsic variables as drivers of disease. 5. We demonstrate that there was a >60% probability of a disease event each year following pneumonia invasion into bighorn sheep populations. Healthy years also occurred periodically, and understanding the factors driving these apparent fade-out events may be the key to managing this disease. Our data and modelling indicate that pneumonia can have greater impacts on bighorn sheep populations than previously reported, and we present hypotheses about processes involved for testing in future investigations and management. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Impact of population structure, effective bottleneck time, and allele frequency on linkage disequilibrium maps

PubMed Central

Zhang, Weihua; Collins, Andrew; Gibson, Jane; Tapper, William J.; Hunt, Sarah; Deloukas, Panos; Bentley, David R.; Morton, Newton E.

2004-01-01

Genetic maps in linkage disequilibrium (LD) units play the same role for association mapping as maps in centimorgans provide at much lower resolution for linkage mapping. Association mapping of genes determining disease susceptibility and other phenotypes is based on the theory of LD, here applied to relations with three phenomena. To test the theory, markers at high density along a 10-Mb continuous segment of chromosome 20q were studied in African-American, Asian, and Caucasian samples. Population structure, whether created by pooling samples from divergent populations or by the mating pattern in a mixed population, is accurately bioassayed from genotype frequencies. The effective bottleneck time for Eurasians is substantially less than for migration out of Africa, reflecting later bottlenecks. The classical dependence of allele frequency on mutation age does not hold for the generally shorter time span of inbreeding and LD. Limitation of the classical theory to mutation age justifies the assumption of constant time in a LD map, except for alleles that were rare at the effective bottleneck time or have arisen since. This assumption is derived from the Malecot model and verified in all samples. Tested measures of relative efficiency, support intervals, and localization error determine the operating characteristics of LD maps that are applicable to every sexually reproducing species, with implications for association mapping, high-resolution linkage maps, evolutionary inference, and identification of recombinogenic sequences. PMID:15604137

Impact of population structure, effective bottleneck time, and allele frequency on linkage disequilibrium maps.

PubMed

Zhang, Weihua; Collins, Andrew; Gibson, Jane; Tapper, William J; Hunt, Sarah; Deloukas, Panos; Bentley, David R; Morton, Newton E

2004-12-28

Genetic maps in linkage disequilibrium (LD) units play the same role for association mapping as maps in centimorgans provide at much lower resolution for linkage mapping. Association mapping of genes determining disease susceptibility and other phenotypes is based on the theory of LD, here applied to relations with three phenomena. To test the theory, markers at high density along a 10-Mb continuous segment of chromosome 20q were studied in African-American, Asian, and Caucasian samples. Population structure, whether created by pooling samples from divergent populations or by the mating pattern in a mixed population, is accurately bioassayed from genotype frequencies. The effective bottleneck time for Eurasians is substantially less than for migration out of Africa, reflecting later bottlenecks. The classical dependence of allele frequency on mutation age does not hold for the generally shorter time span of inbreeding and LD. Limitation of the classical theory to mutation age justifies the assumption of constant time in a LD map, except for alleles that were rare at the effective bottleneck time or have arisen since. This assumption is derived from the Malecot model and verified in all samples. Tested measures of relative efficiency, support intervals, and localization error determine the operating characteristics of LD maps that are applicable to every sexually reproducing species, with implications for association mapping, high-resolution linkage maps, evolutionary inference, and identification of recombinogenic sequences.

[Demographic dynamics, migrants from bordering countries and economic activity in Buenos Aires].

PubMed

Lattes, A E; Bertoncello, R

1997-04-01

The growth and changes--by age, sex, and place of birth--in the structure of the total population of the Buenos Aires metropolitan area and of the subpopulation over 15 years of age and economically active are analyzed for the decade of the 1980s. Study of the economic participation of migrants and its possible influence on levels of employment or unemployment should be carried out within the framework of changes in the population's structure and economic participation. The 1981 and 1991 censuses and the Permanent Survey of Households were the sources of data. Immigration to Argentina has declined considerably in recent years, but it is still a factor in the population growth of metropolitan Buenos Aires. Between the 1981 and 1991 censuses, the population aged 15 and over grew by 10.9/1000, or a total of 827,806 people. Migrants from bordering countries increased in number (by 85,109, or 10.3%) and in proportion to the total population (from 3.9% to 4.6%). Migrant women increased at the highest rate (30.1/1000). The greatest growth occurred among men aged 40 and over and among women aged 35 and over. The growth of the economically active population over age 15 for different groups of national origin, sex, and age showed much greater heterogeneity. In 1991, women from bordering countries represented 3.8% of all women in metropolitan Buenos Aires but 5.7% of the total economically active female population and nearly 7% of the economically active female population aged 35 and over. Women from neighboring countries were responsible for 10.3% of the growth in the economically active female population aged 30-34 and 40-44 between 1981 and 1991. The absolute and relative increases in migrants from neighboring countries and their greater economic participation tend to increase the general level of economic activity.

Utilitarian pension and retirement policies under population ageing.

PubMed

Jackson, W A

1989-01-01

The author analyzes population aging and its impact on pension and retirement policies by utilizing a simple utilitarian model for alternative types of pension finance. Findings indicate that "when specific adjustments to population ageing are necessary, changes in the retirement age are preferred to changes in pensions or contributions." A geographical focus on developed countries is implied. excerpt

[Confirmative study of a French version of the Exercise Dependence Scale-revised with a French population].

PubMed

Allegre, B; Therme, P

2008-10-01

Since the first writings on excessive exercise, there has been an increased interest in exercise dependence. One of the major consequences of this increased interest has been the development of several definitions and measures of exercise dependence. The work of Veale [Does primary exercise dependence really exist? In: Annet J, Cripps B, Steinberg H, editors. Exercise addiction: Motivation for participation in sport and exercise.Leicester, UK: Br Psychol Soc; 1995. p. 1-5.] provides an advance for the definition and measure of exercise dependence. These studies have adapted the DSM-IV criteria for substance dependence to measure exercise dependence. The Exercise Dependence Scale-Revised is based on these diagnostic criteria, which are: tolerance; withdrawal effects; intention effect; lack of control; time; reductions in other activities; continuance. Confirmatory factor analyses of EDS-R provided support to present a measurement model (21 items loaded in seven factors) of EDS-R (Comparative Fit Index=0.97; Root mean Square Error of Approximation=0.05; Tucker-Lewis Index=0.96). The aim of this study was to examine the psychometric properties of a French version of the EDS-R [Factorial validity and psychometric examination of the exercise dependence scale-revised. Meas Phys Educ Exerc Sci 2004;8(4):183-201.] to test the stability of the seven-factor model of the original version with a French population. A total of 516 half-marathoners ranged in age from 17 to 74 years old (Mean age=39.02 years, ET=10.64), with 402 men (77.9%) and 114 women (22.1%) participated in the study. The principal component analysis results in a six-factor structure, which accounts for 68.60% of the total variance. Because principal component analysis presents a six-factor structure differing from the original seven-factor structure, two models were tested, using confirmatory factor analysis. The first model is the seven-factor model of the original version of the EDS-R and the second is the model produced by the principal component analysis. The results of confirmatory factor analysis presented the original model (with a seven-factor structure) as a good model and fit indices were good (X(2)/ddl=2.89, Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA)=0.061, Expected Cross Validation Index (ECVI)=1.20, Goodness-of-Fit Index (GFI)=0.92, Comparative Fit Index (CFI)=0.94, Standardized Root Mean Square (SRMS)=0.048). These results showed that the French version of EDS-R has an identical factor structure to the original. Therefore, the French version of EDS-R was an acceptable scale to measure exercise dependence and can be used on a French population.

Dispositional hope and life satisfaction among older adults attending lifelong learning programs.

PubMed

Oliver, A; Tomás, J M; Montoro-Rodriguez, J

2017-09-01

The aim of this study is to explore the indirect effects of dispositional hope in the life satisfaction of older adults attending a lifelong learning program at the University of Valencia, Spain. We examine the mediating impact of dispositional hope regarding its ability to impact life satisfaction while considering affective and confidant social support, perceived health and leisure activities, consciousness and spirituality as predictors. Analysis were based on survey data (response rate 77.4%) provided by 737 adults 55 years old or more (Mean age=65.41, SD=6.60; 69% woman). A structural model with latent variables was specified and estimated in Mplus. The results show the ability of just a few variables to sum up a reasonable model to apply to successful aging population. All these variables are correlated and significantly predict hope with the exception of health. The model additionally includes significant positive indirect effects from spirituality, affective support and consciousness on satisfaction. The model has a good fit in terms of both the measurement and structural model. Regarding predictive power, these comprehensive four main areas of successful aging account for 42% of hope and finally for one third of the life satisfaction variance. Results support the mediating role of dispositional hope on the life satisfaction among older adults attending lifelong learning programs. These findings also support the MacArthur model of successful aging adapted to older adults with high levels of functional, social and cognitive ability. Dispositional hope, perceived health, and social support were the strongest predictors of satisfaction with life. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Population and labour force projections for 27 European countries, 2002-052: impact of international migration on population ageing: Projections de population et de population active pour 27 pays européens 2002-052: impact de la migration internationale sur le vieillissement de la population.

PubMed

Bijak, Jakub; Kupiszewska, Dorota; Kupiszewski, Marek; Saczuk, Katarzyna; Kicinger, Anna

2007-03-01

Population and labour force projections are made for 27 selected European countries for 2002-052, focussing on the impact of international migration on population and labour force dynamics. Starting from single scenarios for fertility, mortality and economic activity, three sets of assumptions are explored regarding migration flows, taking into account probable policy developments in Europe following the enlargement of the EU. In addition to age structures, various support ratio indicators are analysed. The results indicate that plausible immigration cannot offset the negative effects of population and labour force ageing.

Exploring Fold Space Preferences of New-born and Ancient Protein Superfamilies

PubMed Central

Edwards, Hannah; Abeln, Sanne; Deane, Charlotte M.

2013-01-01

The evolution of proteins is one of the fundamental processes that has delivered the diversity and complexity of life we see around ourselves today. While we tend to define protein evolution in terms of sequence level mutations, insertions and deletions, it is hard to translate these processes to a more complete picture incorporating a polypeptide's structure and function. By considering how protein structures change over time we can gain an entirely new appreciation of their long-term evolutionary dynamics. In this work we seek to identify how populations of proteins at different stages of evolution explore their possible structure space. We use an annotation of superfamily age to this space and explore the relationship between these ages and a diverse set of properties pertaining to a superfamily's sequence, structure and function. We note several marked differences between the populations of newly evolved and ancient structures, such as in their length distributions, secondary structure content and tertiary packing arrangements. In particular, many of these differences suggest a less elaborate structure for newly evolved superfamilies when compared with their ancient counterparts. We show that the structural preferences we report are not a residual effect of a more fundamental relationship with function. Furthermore, we demonstrate the robustness of our results, using significant variation in the algorithm used to estimate the ages. We present these age estimates as a useful tool to analyse protein populations. In particularly, we apply this in a comparison of domains containing greek key or jelly roll motifs. PMID:24244135

Spatial structuring within a reservoir fish population: implications for management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, David R.; Long, James M.; Shoup, Daniel E.

2014-01-01

Spatial structuring in reservoir fish populations can exist because of environmental gradients, species-specific behaviour, or even localised fishing effort. The present study investigated whether white crappie exhibited evidence of improved population structure where the northern more productive half of a lake is closed to fishing to provide waterfowl hunting opportunities. Population response to angling was modelled for each substock of white crappie (north (protected) and south (unprotected) areas), the entire lake (single-stock model) and by combining simulations of the two independent substock models (additive model). White crappie in the protected area were more abundant, consisting of larger, older individuals, and exhibited a lower total annual mortality rate than in the unprotected area. Population modelling found that fishing mortality rates between 0.1 and 0.3 resulted in sustainable populations (spawning potential ratios (SPR) >0.30). The population in the unprotected area appeared to be more resilient (SPR > 0.30) at the higher fishing intensities (0.35–0.55). Considered additively, the whole-lake fishery appeared more resilient than when modelled as a single-panmictic stock. These results provided evidence of spatial structuring in reservoir fish populations, and we recommend model assessments used to guide management decisions should consider those spatial differences in other populations where they exist.

Psychometric Validation of the Parental Bonding Instrument in a U.K. Population-Based Sample: Role of Gender and Association With Mental Health in Mid-Late Life.

PubMed

Xu, Man K; Morin, Alexandre J S; Marsh, Herbert W; Richards, Marcus; Jones, Peter B

2016-08-01

The factorial structure of the Parental Bonding Instrument (PBI) has been frequently studied in diverse samples but no study has examined its psychometric properties from large, population-based samples. In particular, important questions have not been addressed such as the measurement invariance properties across parental and offspring gender. We evaluated the PBI based on responses from a large, representative population-based sample, using an exploratory structural equation modeling method appropriate for categorical data. Analysis revealed a three-factor structure representing "care," "overprotection," and "autonomy" parenting styles. In terms of psychometric measurement validity, our results supported the complete invariance of the PBI ratings across sons and daughters for their mothers and fathers. The PBI ratings were also robust in relation to personality and mental health status. In terms of predictive value, paternal care showed a protective effect on mental health at age 43 in sons. The PBI is a sound instrument for capturing perceived parenting styles, and is predictive of mental health in middle adulthood. © The Author(s) 2016.

Data-Limited Population-Status Evaluation of Two Coastal Fishes in Southern Angola Using Recreational Catch Length-Frequency Data.

PubMed

Beckensteiner, Jennifer; Kaplan, David M; Potts, Warren M; Santos, Carmen V; O'Farrell, Michael R

2016-01-01

Excessive truncation of a population's size structure is often identified as an important deleterious effect of exploitation, yet the effect on population persistence of size-structure truncation caused by exploitation is often not quantified due to data limitations. In this study, we estimate changes in eggs per recruit (EPR) using annual length-frequency samples over a 9 year period to assess persistence of the two most important recreational fishes in southern Angola: west coast dusky kob (Argyrosomus coronus) and leerfish (Lichia amia). Using a length- and age-structured model, we improve on an existing method to fit this type of model to length-frequency data and estimate EPR. The objectives of the methodological changes are to add flexibility and robustness to the approach for assessing population status in data-limited situations. Results indicate that dusky kob presents very low levels of EPR (5%-10% of the per recruit reproductive capacity in the absence of fishing) in 2013, whereas large inter-annual variability in leerfish estimates suggest caution must be applied when drawing conclusions about its exploitation status. Using simulated length frequency data with known parameter values, we demonstrate that recruitment decline due to overexploitation leads to overestimation of EPR values. Considering the low levels of EPR estimated for the study species, recruitment limitation is not impossible and true EPR values may be even lower than our estimates. It is, therefore, likely that management action, such as the creation of Marine Protected Areas, is needed to reconstitute the west coast dusky kob population.

Elucidating Dimensions of Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms and their Functional Correlates in Disaster-Exposed Adolescents

PubMed Central

Sumner, Jennifer A.; Pietrzak, Robert H.; Danielson, Carla Kmett; Adams, Zachary W.; Ruggiero, Kenneth J.

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to elucidate the dimensional structure of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and potential moderators and functional correlates of this structure in disaster-affected adolescents. A population-based sample of 2,000 adolescents aged 12–17 years (M=14.5 years; 51% female) completed interviews on post-tornado PTSD symptoms, substance use, and parent-adolescent conflict between 4 and 13 months (M=8.8, SD=2.6) after tornado exposure. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed that all models fit well but a 5-factor dysphoric arousal model provided a statistically significantly better representation of adolescent PTSD symptoms compared to 4-factor dysphoria and emotional numbing models. There was evidence of measurement invariance of the dysphoric arousal model across gender and age, although girls and older adolescents aged 15–17 years had higher mean scores than boys and younger adolescents aged 12–14 years, respectively, on some PTSD dimensions. Differential magnitudes of association between PTSD symptom dimensions and functional correlates were observed, with emotional numbing symptoms most strongly positively associated with problematic substance use since the tornado, and dysphoric arousal symptoms most strongly positively associated with parent-adolescent conflict; both correlations were significantly larger than the corresponding correlations with anxious arousal. Taken together, these results suggest that the dimensional structure of tornado-related PTSD symptomatology in adolescents is optimally characterized by five separate clusters of re-experiencing, avoidance, numbing, dysphoric arousal, and anxious arousal symptoms, which showed unique associations with functional correlates. Findings emphasize that PTSD in disaster-exposed adolescents is not best conceptualized as a homogeneous construct and highlight potential differential targets for post-disaster assessment and intervention. PMID:25248557

Elucidating dimensions of posttraumatic stress symptoms and their functional correlates in disaster-exposed adolescents.

PubMed

Sumner, Jennifer A; Pietrzak, Robert H; Danielson, Carla Kmett; Adams, Zachary W; Ruggiero, Kenneth J

2014-12-01

The aim of this study was to elucidate the dimensional structure of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and potential moderators and functional correlates of this structure in disaster-affected adolescents. A population-based sample of 2000 adolescents aged 12-17 years (M = 14.5 years; 51% female) completed interviews on post-tornado PTSD symptoms, substance use, and parent-adolescent conflict between 4 and 13 months (M = 8.8, SD = 2.6) after tornado exposure. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed that all models fit well but a 5-factor dysphoric arousal model provided a statistically significantly better representation of adolescent PTSD symptoms compared to 4-factor dysphoria and emotional numbing models. There was evidence of measurement invariance of the dysphoric arousal model across gender and age, although girls and older adolescents aged 15-17 years had higher mean scores than boys and younger adolescents aged 12-14 years, respectively, on some PTSD dimensions. Differential magnitudes of association between PTSD symptom dimensions and functional correlates were observed, with emotional numbing symptoms most strongly positively associated with problematic substance use since the tornado, and dysphoric arousal symptoms most strongly positively associated with parent-adolescent conflict; both correlations were significantly larger than the corresponding correlations with anxious arousal. Taken together, these results suggest that the dimensional structure of tornado-related PTSD symptomatology in adolescents is optimally characterized by five separate clusters of re-experiencing, avoidance, numbing, dysphoric arousal, and anxious arousal symptoms, which showed unique associations with functional correlates. Findings emphasize that PTSD in disaster-exposed adolescents is not best conceptualized as a homogenous construct and highlight potential differential targets for post-disaster assessment and intervention. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan.

PubMed

Chen, Brian K; Jalal, Hawre; Hashimoto, Hideki; Suen, Sze-Chuan; Eggleston, Karen; Hurley, Michael; Schoemaker, Lena; Bhattacharya, Jay

2016-12-01

Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan's future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study estimates a new state-transition microsimulation model - the Japanese Future Elderly Model (FEM) - for Japan. We use the model to forecast disability and health for Japan's future elderly. Our simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan's elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific morbidity can help reduce the burden of disability but may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly. While both age and morbidity contribute to a predicted increase in disability burden among elderly Japanese in the future, our simulation results suggest that the impact of population aging exceeds the effect of age-specific morbidity on increasing disability in Japan's future.

Comparative Demography of an At-Risk African Elephant Population

PubMed Central

Wittemyer, George; Daballen, David; Douglas-Hamilton, Iain

2013-01-01

Knowledge of population processes across various ecological and management settings offers important insights for species conservation and life history. In regard to its ecological role, charisma and threats from human impacts, African elephants are of high conservation concern and, as a result, are the focus of numerous studies across various contexts. Here, demographic data from an individually based study of 934 African elephants in Samburu, Kenya were summarized, providing detailed inspection of the population processes experienced by the population over a fourteen year period (including the repercussions of recent increases in illegal killing). These data were compared with those from populations inhabiting a spectrum of xeric to mesic ecosystems with variable human impacts. In relation to variability in climate and human impacts (causing up to 50% of recorded deaths among adults), annual mortality in Samburu fluctuated between 1 and 14% and, unrelatedly, natality between 2 and 14% driving annual population increases and decreases. Survivorship in Samburu was significantly lower than other populations with age-specific data even during periods of low illegal killing by humans, resulting in relatively low life expectancy of males (18.9 years) and females (21.8 years). Fecundity (primiparous age and inter-calf interval) were similar to those reported in other human impacted or recovering populations, and significantly greater than that of comparable stable populations. This suggests reproductive effort of African savanna elephants increases in relation to increased mortality (and resulting ecological ramifications) as predicted by life history theory. Further comparison across populations indicated that elongated inter-calf intervals and older ages of reproductive onset were related to age structure and density, and likely influenced by ecological conditions. This study provides detailed empirical data on elephant population dynamics strongly influenced by human impacts (laying the foundation for modeling approaches), supporting predictions of evolutionary theory regarding demographic responses to ecological processes. PMID:23341984

Comparative demography of an at-risk African elephant population.

PubMed

Wittemyer, George; Daballen, David; Douglas-Hamilton, Iain

2013-01-01

Knowledge of population processes across various ecological and management settings offers important insights for species conservation and life history. In regard to its ecological role, charisma and threats from human impacts, African elephants are of high conservation concern and, as a result, are the focus of numerous studies across various contexts. Here, demographic data from an individually based study of 934 African elephants in Samburu, Kenya were summarized, providing detailed inspection of the population processes experienced by the population over a fourteen year period (including the repercussions of recent increases in illegal killing). These data were compared with those from populations inhabiting a spectrum of xeric to mesic ecosystems with variable human impacts. In relation to variability in climate and human impacts (causing up to 50% of recorded deaths among adults), annual mortality in Samburu fluctuated between 1 and 14% and, unrelatedly, natality between 2 and 14% driving annual population increases and decreases. Survivorship in Samburu was significantly lower than other populations with age-specific data even during periods of low illegal killing by humans, resulting in relatively low life expectancy of males (18.9 years) and females (21.8 years). Fecundity (primiparous age and inter-calf interval) were similar to those reported in other human impacted or recovering populations, and significantly greater than that of comparable stable populations. This suggests reproductive effort of African savanna elephants increases in relation to increased mortality (and resulting ecological ramifications) as predicted by life history theory. Further comparison across populations indicated that elongated inter-calf intervals and older ages of reproductive onset were related to age structure and density, and likely influenced by ecological conditions. This study provides detailed empirical data on elephant population dynamics strongly influenced by human impacts (laying the foundation for modeling approaches), supporting predictions of evolutionary theory regarding demographic responses to ecological processes.

Emission-line diagnostics of nearby H II regions including interacting binary populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Lin; Stanway, Elizabeth R.; Eldridge, J. J.

2018-06-01

We present numerical models of the nebular emission from H II regions around young stellar populations over a range of compositions and ages. The synthetic stellar populations include both single stars and interacting binary stars. We compare these models to the observed emission lines of 254 H II regions of 13 nearby spiral galaxies and 21 dwarf galaxies drawn from archival data. The models are created using the combination of the BPASS (Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis) code with the photoionization code CLOUDY to study the differences caused by the inclusion of interacting binary stars in the stellar population. We obtain agreement with the observed emission line ratios from the nearby star-forming regions and discuss the effect of binary-star evolution pathways on the nebular ionization of H II regions. We find that at population ages above 10 Myr, single-star models rapidly decrease in flux and ionization strength, while binary-star models still produce strong flux and high [O III]/H β ratios. Our models can reproduce the metallicity of H II regions from spiral galaxies, but we find higher metallicities than previously estimated for the H II regions from dwarf galaxies. Comparing the equivalent width of H β emission between models and observations, we find that accounting for ionizing photon leakage can affect age estimates for H II regions. When it is included, the typical age derived for H II regions is 5 Myr from single-star models, and up to 10 Myr with binary-star models. This is due to the existence of binary-star evolution pathways, which produce more hot Wolf-Rayet and helium stars at older ages. For future reference, we calculate new BPASS binary maximal starburst lines as a function of metallicity, and for the total model population, and present these in Appendix A.

Spatio-temporal variations in age structures of a partially re-established population of northern river otters (Lontra canadensis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barrett, Dominic A.; Leslie, David M.

2012-01-01

Examination of age structures and sex ratios is useful in the management of northern river otters (Lontra canadensis) and other furbearers. Reintroductions and subsequent recolonizations of river otters have been well documented, but changes in demographics between expanding and established populations have not been observed. As a result of reintroduction efforts, immigration from Arkansas and northeastern Texas, and other efforts, river otters have become partially reestablished throughout eastern and central Oklahoma. Our objective was to examine age structures of river otters in Oklahoma and identify trends that relate to space (watersheds, county) and time (USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service county trapping records). We predicted that river otters in western areas of the state were younger than river otters occurring farther east. From 2005–2007, we obtained salvaged river otter carcasses from federal and state agencies, and we live-captured other river otters using leg hold traps. Seventy-two river otters were sampled. Overall, sex ratios were skewed toward females (1F∶0.8M), but they did not differ among spatiotemporal scales examined. Teeth were removed from salvaged and live-captured river otters (n  =  63) for aging. One-year old river otters represented the largest age class (30.2%). Proportion of juveniles (<1 y old) in Oklahoma (19.0%) was less than other states. Mean age of river otters decreased from east-to-west in the Arkansas River and its tributaries. Mean age of river otters differed between the Canadian River Watershed (0.8 y) and the Arkansas River Watershed (2.9 y) and the Canadian River Watershed and the Red River Watershed (2.4 y). Proportion of juveniles did not differ among spatiotemporal scales examined. Similar to age structure variations in other mammalian carnivores, colonizing or growing western populations of river otters in Oklahoma contained younger ages than more established eastern populations.

Population viability analysis of Lower Missouri River shovelnose sturgeon with initial application to the pallid sturgeon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bajer, P.G.; Wildhaber, M.L.

2007-01-01

Demographic models for the shovelnose (Scaphirhynchus platorynchus) and pallid (S. albus) sturgeons in the Lower Missouri River were developed to conduct sensitivity analyses for both populations. Potential effects of increased fishing mortality on the shovelnose sturgeon were also evaluated. Populations of shovelnose and pallid sturgeon were most sensitive to age-0 mortality rates as well as mortality rates of juveniles and young adults. Overall, fecundity was a less sensitive parameter. However, increased fecundity effectively balanced higher mortality among sensitive age classes in both populations. Management that increases population-level fecundity and improves survival of age-0, juveniles, and young adults should most effectively benefit both populations. Evaluation of reproductive values indicated that populations of pallid sturgeon dominated by ages ≥35 could rapidly lose their potential for growth, particularly if recruitment remains low. Under the initial parameter values portraying current conditions the population of shovelnose sturgeon was predicted to decline by 1.65% annually, causing the commercial yield to also decline. Modeling indicated that the commercial yield could increase substantially if exploitation of females in ages ≤12 was highly restricted.

Using a Marginal Structural Model to Design a Theory-Based Mass Media Campaign.

PubMed

Nishiuchi, Hiromu; Taguri, Masataka; Ishikawa, Yoshiki

2016-01-01

The essential first step in the development of mass media health campaigns is to identify specific beliefs of the target audience. The challenge is to prioritize suitable beliefs derived from behavioral theory. The purpose of this study was to identify suitable beliefs to target in a mass media campaign to change behavior using a new method to estimate the possible effect size of a small set of beliefs. Data were drawn from the 2010 Japanese Young Female Smoker Survey (n = 500), conducted by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. Survey measures included intention to quit smoking, psychological beliefs (attitude, norms, and perceived control) based on the theory of planned behavior and socioeconomic status (age, education, household income, and marital status). To identify suitable candidate beliefs for a mass media health campaign, we estimated the possible effect size required to change the intention to quit smoking among the population of young Japanese women using the population attributable fraction from a marginal structural model. Thirteen percent of study participants intended to quit smoking. The marginal structural model estimated a population attributable fraction of 47 psychological beliefs (21 attitudes, 6 norms, and 19 perceived controls) after controlling for socioeconomic status. The belief, "I could quit smoking if my husband or significant other recommended it" suggested a promising target for a mass media campaign (population attributable fraction = 0.12, 95% CI = 0.02-0.23). Messages targeting this belief could possibly improve intention rates by up to 12% among this population. The analysis also suggested the potential for regulatory action. This study proposed a method by which campaign planners can develop theory-based mass communication strategies to change health behaviors at the population level. This method might contribute to improving the quality of future mass health communication strategies and further research is needed.

Using a Marginal Structural Model to Design a Theory-Based Mass Media Campaign

PubMed Central

Taguri, Masataka; Ishikawa, Yoshiki

2016-01-01

Background The essential first step in the development of mass media health campaigns is to identify specific beliefs of the target audience. The challenge is to prioritize suitable beliefs derived from behavioral theory. The purpose of this study was to identify suitable beliefs to target in a mass media campaign to change behavior using a new method to estimate the possible effect size of a small set of beliefs. Methods Data were drawn from the 2010 Japanese Young Female Smoker Survey (n = 500), conducted by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. Survey measures included intention to quit smoking, psychological beliefs (attitude, norms, and perceived control) based on the theory of planned behavior and socioeconomic status (age, education, household income, and marital status). To identify suitable candidate beliefs for a mass media health campaign, we estimated the possible effect size required to change the intention to quit smoking among the population of young Japanese women using the population attributable fraction from a marginal structural model. Results Thirteen percent of study participants intended to quit smoking. The marginal structural model estimated a population attributable fraction of 47 psychological beliefs (21 attitudes, 6 norms, and 19 perceived controls) after controlling for socioeconomic status. The belief, “I could quit smoking if my husband or significant other recommended it” suggested a promising target for a mass media campaign (population attributable fraction = 0.12, 95% CI = 0.02–0.23). Messages targeting this belief could possibly improve intention rates by up to 12% among this population. The analysis also suggested the potential for regulatory action. Conclusions This study proposed a method by which campaign planners can develop theory-based mass communication strategies to change health behaviors at the population level. This method might contribute to improving the quality of future mass health communication strategies and further research is needed. PMID:27441626

Carbon cycling in fine roots of several mature forests: results using either locally-derived or bomb-derived radiocarbon enrichment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaudinski, J. B.; Riley, W. J.; Torn, M. S.; Dawson, T. E.; Trumbore, S. E.; Joslin, J. D.; Majdi, H.; Hanson, P. J.; Swanston, C.

2008-12-01

This work seeks to improve our ability to quantify C cycling rates in fine roots of trees in mature deciduous and coniferous forests. We use two different types of atmospheric 14CO2 enrichment to trace the time elapsed since C in plant tissues was fixed from the atmosphere by photosynthesis. The first uses a local enrichment of 14CO2 which occurred in early summer 1999, at the Oak Ridge Reservation, Tennessee. The second, employed at three different sites, uses the global enrichment in background atmospheric 14CO2 caused by thermonuclear weapons testing (bomb-14C). In both cases we employ a new model (Radix1.0) to track C and 14C fluxes through fine root populations. Radix simulates two live-root populations (the longer-lived one having structural and non-structural C components), two dead-root pools, non-normally distributed root mortality turnover times, a stored C pool, seasonal growth and respiration patterns, a best-fit to measurements approach to estimate model parameters, and Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. Our results show that: (1) New fine-root growth contains a lot of stored C (~55%) but it is young in age (0.7 y). (2) The effect of stored reserves on estimated ages of fine roots is unlikely to be large in most natural abundance isotope studies. However, models should take stored reserves into account, particularly for pulse labeling studies and fast-cycling roots (< 1 y). (3) Radiocarbon values show a stronger correlation with position on the root branch system than they do with diameter or depth in the soil profile. (4) Live fine root dynamics are well described by a short-lived and a long-lived population, with mean turnover times <1 y and ~12 y, respectively. (5) Dead root decomposition is best modeled with (at least) two pools, with moderate (~2 y) and slow (~10 y) decomposition turnover times. (6) Root respiration has a large effect on fine root biomass and isotopic composition, and should be included in ecosystem C and isotope models. (7) It is important to distinguish structural from non-structural components in the long-lived root pool. Otherwise the 14C signature of root respiration is significantly different than atmospheric. We conclude that realistic quantification of C flows through fine roots requires a model with a level of complexity similar to Radix. Moreover, future root research efforts should seek to sample and sort roots by position on the root branch system rather than by diameter size class and improve estimates of root respiration within fine root populations.

Prophylactic ranitidine treatment in critically ill children--a population pharmacokinetic study.

PubMed

Hawwa, Ahmed F; Westwood, Paul M; Collier, Paul S; Millership, Jeffrey S; Yakkundi, Shirish; Thurley, Gillian; Shields, Mike D; Nunn, Anthony J; Halliday, Henry L; McElnay, James C

2013-05-01

To characterize the population pharmacokinetics of ranitidine in critically ill children and to determine the influence of various clinical and demographic factors on its disposition. Data were collected prospectively from 78 paediatric patients (n = 248 plasma samples) who received oral or intravenous ranitidine for prophylaxis against stress ulcers, gastrointestinal bleeding or the treatment of gastro-oesophageal reflux. Plasma samples were analysed using high-performance liquid chromatography, and the data were subjected to population pharmacokinetic analysis using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling. A one-compartment model best described the plasma concentration profile, with an exponential structure for interindividual errors and a proportional structure for intra-individual error. After backward stepwise elimination, the final model showed a significant decrease in objective function value (-12.618; P < 0.001) compared with the weight-corrected base model. Final parameter estimates for the population were 32.1 l h(-1) for total clearance and 285 l for volume of distribution, both allometrically modelled for a 70 kg adult. Final estimates for absorption rate constant and bioavailability were 1.31 h(-1) and 27.5%, respectively. No significant relationship was found between age and weight-corrected ranitidine pharmacokinetic parameters in the final model, with the covariate for cardiac failure or surgery being shown to reduce clearance significantly by a factor of 0.46. Currently, ranitidine dose recommendations are based on children's weights. However, our findings suggest that a dosing scheme that takes into consideration both weight and cardiac failure/surgery would be more appropriate in order to avoid administration of higher or more frequent doses than necessary. © 2012 The Authors. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology © 2012 The British Pharmacological Society.

Decorin expression is important for age-related changes in tendon structure and mechanical properties

PubMed Central

Dunkman, Andrew A.; Buckley, Mark R.; Mienaltowski, Michael J.; Adams, Sheila M.; Thomas, Stephen J.; Satchell, Lauren; Kumar, Akash; Pathmanathan, Lydia; Beason, David P.; Iozzo, Renato V.; Birk, David E.; Soslowsky, Louis J.

2013-01-01

The aging population is at an increased risk of tendon injury and tendinopathy. Elucidating the molecular basis of tendon aging is crucial to understanding the age-related changes in structure and function in this vulnerable tissue. In this study, the structural and functional features of tendon aging are investigated. In addition, the roles of decorin and biglycan in the aging process were analyzed using transgenic mice at both mature and aged time points. Our hypothesis is that the increase in tendon injuries in the aging population is the result of altered structural properties that reduce the biomechanical function of the tendon and consequently increase susceptibility to injury. Decorin and biglycan are important regulators of tendon structure and therefore, we further hypothesized that decreased function in aged tendons is partly the result of altered decorin and biglycan expression. Biomechanical analyses of mature (day 150) and aged (day 570) patellar tendons revealed deteriorating viscoelastic properties with age. Histology and polarized light microscopy demonstrated decreased cellularity, alterations in tenocyte shape, and reduced collagen fiber alignment in the aged tendons. Ultrastructural analysis of fibril diameter distributions indicated an altered distribution in aged tendons with an increase of large diameter fibrils. Aged wild type tendons maintained expression of decorin which was associated with the structural and functional changes seen in aged tendons. Aged patellar tendons exhibited altered and generally inferior properties across multiple assays. However, decorin-null tendons exhibited significantly decreased effects of aging compared to the other genotypes. The amelioration of the functional deficits seen in the absence of decorin in aged tendons was associated with altered tendon fibril structure. Fibril diameter distributions in the decorin-null aged tendons were comparable to those observed in the mature wild type tendon with the absence of the subpopulation containing large diameter fibrils. Collectively, our findings provide evidence for age-dependent alterations in tendon architecture and functional activity, and further show that lack of stromal decorin attenuates these changes. PMID:23178232

A Conceptual Model of Riparian Forest Response to Channel Abandonment on Meandering Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stella, J. C.; Hayden, M. K.; Battles, J. J.; Piegay, H.; Dufour, S.; Fremier, A. K.

2008-12-01

On alluvial rivers, hydrogeomorphic regimes exert a primary control on the regeneration of pioneer riparian forest stands and thus their composition and age structure. Seasonal flow patterns provide the necessary conditions for recruitment, and channel migration drives patterns of forest stand dynamics. To date, studies of pioneer riparian forest structure have focused primarily on point bar habitats, where woody vegetation typically recruits with decadal frequency in even-aged bands parallel to the river margin. However, there are indications that other recruitment pathways exist and can be important from a population and conservation perspective. On floodplains where channel migration occurs as infrequent cutoff or avulsion events, the geometry and position of the old channel relative to the new one determines rates and patterns of sedimentation and flood frequency. These conditions provide a brief opportunity for forest recruitment, and geomorphic evolution of the former channel habitat in turn influences forest dynamics. The population implications of this alternative forest regeneration pathway depend on the temporal dynamics of channel abandonment versus the rate of lateral channel migration. Preliminary analysis indicates that the geographic scope of this ecogeomorphological process is sizable. Along the Sacramento River (CA) and Ain River (France), for example, cottonwood-dominated stands associated with abandoned channels tend to be less frequent in number (38% of all stands) but larger in area (accounting for 53% of all forest area) relative to forest stands associated with laterally migrating point bars. Dendrochronological analysis confirms that tree ages in floodplain stands corresponds to the first decade after channel abandonment. These data indicate that changes to the rate and scale of channel abandonment due to human and climatic alterations to the flow regime will likely influence riparian corridor-wide tree population structure and forest dynamics.

The 'robust' capture-recapture design allows components of recruitment to be estimated

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollock, K.H.; Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.; Lebreton, J.-D.; North, P.M.

1993-01-01

The 'robust' capture-recapture design (Pollock 1982) allows analyses which combine features of closed population model analyses (Otis et aI., 1978, White et aI., 1982) and open population model analyses (Pollock et aI., 1990). Estimators obtained under these analyses are more robust to unequal catch ability than traditional Jolly-Seber estimators (Pollock, 1982; Pollock et al., 1990; Kendall, 1992). The robust design also allows estimation of parameters for population size, survival rate and recruitment numbers for all periods of the study unlike under Jolly-Seber type models. The major advantage of this design that we emphasize in this short review paper is that it allows separate estimation of immigration and in situ recruitment numbers for a two or more age class model (Nichols and Pollock, 1990). This is contrasted with the age-dependent Jolly-Seber model (Pollock, 1981; Stokes, 1984; Pollock et L, 1990) which provides separate estimates for immigration and in situ recruitment for all but the first two age classes where there is at least a three age class model. The ability to achieve this separation of recruitment components can be very important to population modelers and wildlife managers as many species can only be separated into two easily identified age classes in the field.

Multi-scale, Hierarchically Nested Young Stellar Structures in LEGUS Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thilker, David A.; LEGUS Team

2017-01-01

The study of star formation in galaxies has predominantly been limited to either young stellar clusters and HII regions, or much larger kpc-scale morphological features such as spiral arms. The HST Legacy ExtraGalactic UV Survey (LEGUS) provides a rare opportunity to link these scales in a diverse sample of nearby galaxies and obtain a more comprehensive understanding of their co-evolution for comparison against model predictions. We have utilized LEGUS stellar photometry to identify young, resolved stellar populations belonging to several age bins and then defined nested hierarchical structures as traced by these subsamples of stars. Analagous hierarchical structures were also defined using LEGUS catalogs of unresolved young stellar clusters. We will present our emerging results concerning the physical properties (e.g. area, star counts, stellar mass, star formation rate, ISM characteristics), occupancy statistics (e.g. clusters per substructure versus age and scale, parent/child demographics) and relation to overall galaxy morphology/mass for these building blocks of hierarchical star-forming structure.

Representing Heterogeneity in Structural Relationships Among Multiple Choice Variables Using a Latent Segmentation Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garikapati, Venu; Astroza, Sebastian; Pendyala, Ram M.

Travel model systems often adopt a single decision structure that links several activity-travel choices together. The single decision structure is then used to predict activity-travel choices, with those downstream in the decision-making chain influenced by those upstream in the sequence. The adoption of a singular sequential causal structure to depict relationships among activity-travel choices in travel demand model systems ignores the possibility that some choices are made jointly as a bundle as well as the possible presence of structural heterogeneity in the population with respect to decision-making processes. As different segments in the population may adopt and follow different causalmore » decision-making mechanisms when making selected choices jointly, it would be of value to develop simultaneous equations model systems relating multiple endogenous choice variables that are able to identify population subgroups following alternative causal decision structures. Because the segments are not known a priori, they are considered latent and determined endogenously within a joint modeling framework proposed in this paper. The methodology is applied to a national mobility survey data set to identify population segments that follow different causal structures relating residential location choice, vehicle ownership, and car-share and mobility service usage. It is found that the model revealing three distinct latent segments best describes the data, confirming the efficacy of the modeling approach and the existence of structural heterogeneity in decision-making in the population. Future versions of activity-travel model systems should strive to incorporate such structural heterogeneity to better reflect varying decision processes across population subgroups.« less

Methodology for the evaluation of vascular surgery manpower in France.

PubMed

Berger, L; Mace, J M; Ricco, J B; Saporta, G

2013-01-01

The French population is growing and ageing. It is expected to increase by 2.7% by 2020, and the number of individuals over 65 years of age is expected to increase by 3.3 million, a 33% increase, between 2005 and 2020. As the number of vascular surgery procedures is closely associated with the age of a population, it is anticipated that there will be a significant increase in the workload of vascular surgeons. A model is presented to predict changes in vascular surgery activity according to population ageing, including other parameters that could affect workload evolution. Three types of arterial procedures were studied: infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) surgery, peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAOD) procedures and carotid artery (CEA) procedures. Data were selected and extracted from the national PMSI (Medical Information System Program) database. Data obtained from 2000 were used to predict data based on an ageing population for 2008. From this model, a weighted index was defined for each group by comparing expected and observed workloads. According to the model, over this 8-year period, there was an overall increase in vascular procedures of 52.2%, with an increase of 89% in PAOD procedures. Between 2000 and 2009, the total increase was 58.0%, with 3.9% for AAA procedures, 101.7% for PAOD procedures and 13.2% for CEA procedures. The weighted model based on an ageing population and corrected by a weighted factor predicted this increase. This weighted model is able to predict the workload of vascular surgeons over the coming years. An ageing population and other factors could result in a significant increase in demand for vascular surgical services. Copyright © 2012 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Galaxy structure from multiple tracers - III. Radial variations in M87's IMF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oldham, Lindsay; Auger, Matthew

2018-03-01

We present the first constraints on stellar mass-to-light ratio gradients in an early-type galaxy (ETG) using multiple dynamical tracer populations to model the dark and luminous mass structure simultaneously. We combine the kinematics of the central starlight, two globular cluster populations and satellite galaxies in a Jeans analysis to obtain new constraints on M87's mass structure, employing a flexible mass model which allows for radial gradients in the stellar-mass-to-light ratio. We find that, in the context of our model, a radially declining stellar-mass-to-light ratio is strongly favoured. Modelling the stellar-mass-to-light ratio as following a power law, ϒ⋆ ˜ R-μ, we infer a power-law slope μ = -0.54 ± 0.05; equally, parametrizing the stellar-mass-to-light ratio via a central mismatch parameter relative to a Salpeter initial mass function (IMF), α, and scale radius RM, we find α > 1.48 at 95% confidence and RM = 0.35 ± 0.04 kpc. We use stellar population modelling of high-resolution 11-band HST photometry to show that such a steep gradient cannot be achieved by variations in only the metallicity, age, dust extinction and star formation history if the stellar IMF remains spatially constant. On the other hand, the stellar-mass-to-light ratio gradient that we find is consistent with an IMF whose inner slope changes such that it is Salpeter-like in the central ˜0.5 kpc and becomes Chabrier-like within the stellar effective radius. This adds to recent evidence that the non-universality of the IMF in ETGs may be confined to their core regions, and points towards a picture in which the stars in these central regions may have formed in fundamentally different physical conditions.

Estimating risks of heat strain by age and sex: a population-level simulation model.

PubMed

Glass, Kathryn; Tait, Peter W; Hanna, Elizabeth G; Dear, Keith

2015-05-18

Individuals living in hot climates face health risks from hyperthermia due to excessive heat. Heat strain is influenced by weather exposure and by individual characteristics such as age, sex, body size, and occupation. To explore the population-level drivers of heat strain, we developed a simulation model that scales up individual risks of heat storage (estimated using Myrup and Morgan's man model "MANMO") to a large population. Using Australian weather data, we identify high-risk weather conditions together with individual characteristics that increase the risk of heat stress under these conditions. The model identifies elevated risks in children and the elderly, with females aged 75 and older those most likely to experience heat strain. Risk of heat strain in males does not increase as rapidly with age, but is greatest on hot days with high solar radiation. Although cloudy days are less dangerous for the wider population, older women still have an elevated risk of heat strain on hot cloudy days or when indoors during high temperatures. Simulation models provide a valuable method for exploring population level risks of heat strain, and a tool for evaluating public health and other government policy interventions.

Influence of body condition on the population dynamics of Atlantic salmon with consideration of the potential impact of sea lice.

PubMed

Susdorf, R; Salama, N K G; Lusseau, D

2017-11-21

Atlantic salmon Salmo salar is an iconic species of high conservation and economic importance. At sea, individuals typically are subject to sea lice infestation, which can have detrimental effects on their host. Over recent decades, the body condition and marine survival in NE Atlantic stocks have generally decreased, reflected in fewer adults returning to rivers, which is partly attributable to sea lice. We developed a deterministic stage-structured population model to assess condition-mediated population dynamics resulting in changing fecundity, age at sexual maturation and marine survival rate. The model is parameterized using data from the North Esk system, north-east Scotland. Both constant and density-dependent juvenile survival rates are considered. We show that even small sea lice-mediated changes in mean body condition of MSW can cause substantial population declines, whereas 1SW condition is less influential. Density dependence alleviates the condition-mediated population effect. The resilience of the population to demographic perturbations declines as adult condition is reduced. Indirect demographic changes in salmonid life-history traits (e.g., body condition) are often considered unimportant for population trajectory. The model shows that Atlantic salmon population dynamics can be highly responsive to sea lice-mediated effects on adult body condition, thus highlighting the importance of non-lethal parasitic long-term effects. © 2017 The Authors Journal of Fish Diseases Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A dynamic model of the marriage market-part 1: matching algorithm based on age preference and availability.

PubMed

Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L

2013-09-01

The matching algorithm in a dynamic marriage market model is described in this first of two companion papers. Iterative Proportional Fitting is used to find a marriage function (an age distribution of new marriages for both sexes), in a stable reference population, that is consistent with the one-sex age distributions of new marriages, and includes age preference. The one-sex age distributions (which are the marginals of the two-sex distribution) are based on the Picrate model, and age preference on a normal distribution, both of which may be adjusted by choice of parameter values. For a population that is perturbed from the reference state, the total number of new marriages is found as the harmonic mean of target totals for men and women obtained by applying reference population marriage rates to the perturbed population. The marriage function uses the age preference function, assumed to be the same for the reference and the perturbed populations, to distribute the total number of new marriages. The marriage function also has an availability factor that varies as the population changes with time, where availability depends on the supply of unmarried men and women. To simplify exposition, only first marriage is treated, and the algorithm is illustrated by application to Zambia. In the second paper, remarriage and dissolution are included. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method.

PubMed

Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz; Smith, Peter W F; Bijak, Jakub; Raymer, James; Forster, Jonathan J

2015-06-01

In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sources of information. To illustrate, we analyze time series data for the United Kingdom and forecast the components of population change to the year 2024. We also compare the results obtained from different forecast models for age-specific fertility, mortality, and migration. In doing so, we demonstrate the flexibility and advantages of adopting the Bayesian approach for population forecasting and highlight areas where this work could be extended.

Genetic structure of natural and restored shoalgrass Halodule wrightii populations in the NW Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Travis, S.E.; Sheridan, P.

2006-01-01

The decline of seagrass communities worldwide has sparked an urgent need for effective restoration strategies, which require a working knowledge of population genetic structure. Halodule wrighti is a common seagrass of the Caribbean region that is being restored to areas of the Gulf of Mexico, yet little is known of its population genetics. This study provides an assessment of individual, clonal and population effects on the genetic structure of 4 natural H. wrightii populations occupying 170 km of coastline in and around Galveston Bay, Texas, for comparison with 7 restored populations ranging in age from 2 to 7 yr. By using molecular markers, in the form of amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs), we found considerable variation in clonal richness at the population scale (from 0.54 to 0.82), with the restored populations occupying an intermediate to high position within this range. Replicate sampling within individual seagrass beds of 3 to 5m diameter generally revealed higher levels of clonal richness, elevated by 4 to 22% over that at the population scale, suggesting that seed recruitment is more important at the local scale than at distances of >10 m. Genetic diversity was 2 to 3 times less than that expected for a widespread, outcrossing species like H. wrightii, although a 170% increase in the frequency of variable markers relative to the mean for all other populations was noted for a volunteer population that had recruited from a mixture of donor materials planted at a nearby restoration site. Within the spatial extent of this study, natural populations adhered to a model of isolation-by-distance, whereas donor materials from these same natural populations were undergoing a rapid genetic convergence within a restored site where they had been planted together. ?? Inter-Research 2006.

APOE genotype modulates proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy metabolites in the aging brain.

PubMed

Gomar, Jesus J; Gordon, Marc L; Dickinson, Dwight; Kingsley, Peter B; Uluğ, Aziz M; Keehlisen, Lynda; Huet, Sarah; Buthorn, Justin J; Koppel, Jeremy; Christen, Erica; Conejero-Goldberg, Concepcion; Davies, Peter; Goldberg, Terry E

2014-05-01

Proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy ((1)H-MRS) studies on healthy aging have reported inconsistent findings and have not systematically taken into account the possible modulatory effect of APOE genotype. We aimed to quantify brain metabolite changes in healthy subjects in relation to age and the presence of the APOE E4 genetic risk factor for Alzheimer's disease. Additionally, we examined these measures in relation to cognition. We studied a cohort of 112 normal adults between 50 and 86 years old who were genotyped for APOE genetic polymorphism. Measurements of (1)H-MRS metabolites were obtained in the posterior cingulate and precuneus region. Measures of general cognitive functioning, memory, executive function, semantic fluency, and speed of processing were also obtained. General linear model analysis demonstrated that older APOE E4 carriers had significantly higher choline/creatine and myo-inositol/creatine ratios than APOE E3 homozygotes. Structural equation modeling resulted in a model with an excellent goodness of fit and in which the APOE × age interaction and APOE status each had a significant effect on (1)H-MRS metabolites (choline/creatine and myo-inositol/creatine). Furthermore, the APOE × age variable modulation of cognition was mediated by (1)H-MRS metabolites. In a healthy aging normal population, choline/creatine and myo-inositol/creatine ratios were significantly increased in APOE E4 carriers, suggesting the presence of neuroinflammatory processes and greater membrane turnover in older carriers. Structural equation modeling analysis confirmed these possible neurodegenerative markers and also indicated the mediator role of these metabolites on cognitive performance among older APOE E4 carriers. Copyright © 2014 Society of Biological Psychiatry. All rights reserved.

Decentralization and the Composition of Public Expenditures

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

decentralized governance and expenditure composition by means of a distance-sensitive representative agent model. Then we estimate the impact of fiscal...countries with regards to population age structure. We are not certain of what effects that may have in our estimates , but previous studies have found find...variables to estimate a scalar value for g(xβ), which then is multiplied to each variables coefficient. For this, we choose the mean values of the

The Influence of Life History Milestones and Association Networks on Crop-Raiding Behavior in Male African Elephants

PubMed Central

Chiyo, Patrick I.; Moss, Cynthia J.; Alberts, Susan C.

2012-01-01

Factors that influence learning and the spread of behavior in wild animal populations are important for understanding species responses to changing environments and for species conservation. In populations of wildlife species that come into conflict with humans by raiding cultivated crops, simple models of exposure of individual animals to crops do not entirely explain the prevalence of crop raiding behavior. We investigated the influence of life history milestones using age and association patterns on the probability of being a crop raider among wild free ranging male African elephants; we focused on males because female elephants are not known to raid crops in our study population. We examined several features of an elephant association network; network density, community structure and association based on age similarity since they are known to influence the spread of behaviors in a population. We found that older males were more likely to be raiders than younger males, that males were more likely to be raiders when their closest associates were also raiders, and that males were more likely to be raiders when their second closest associates were raiders older than them. The male association network had sparse associations, a tendency for individuals similar in age and raiding status to associate, and a strong community structure. However, raiders were randomly distributed between communities. These features of the elephant association network may limit the spread of raiding behavior and likely determine the prevalence of raiding behavior in elephant populations. Our results suggest that social learning has a major influence on the acquisition of raiding behavior in younger males whereas life history factors are important drivers of raiding behavior in older males. Further, both life-history and network patterns may influence the acquisition and spread of complex behaviors in animal populations and provide insight on managing human-wildlife conflict. PMID:22347468

A generic individual-based model to simulate morphogenesis, C-N acquisition and population dynamics in contrasting forage legumes.

PubMed

Louarn, Gaëtan; Faverjon, Lucas

2018-04-18

Individual-based models (IBMs) are promising tools to disentangle plant interactions in multi-species grasslands and foster innovative species mixtures. This study describes an IBM dealing with the morphogenesis, growth and C-N acquisition of forage legumes that integrates plastic responses from functional-structural plant models. A generic model was developed to account for herbaceous legume species with contrasting above- and below-ground morphogenetic syndromes and to integrate the responses of plants to light, water and N. Through coupling with a radiative transfer model and a three-dimensional virtual soil, the model allows dynamic resolution of competition for multiple resources at individual plant level within a plant community. The behaviour of the model was assessed on a range of monospecific stands grown along gradients of light, water and N availability. The model proved able to capture the diversity of morphologies encountered among the forage legumes. The main density-dependent features known about even-age plant populations were correctly anticipated. The model predicted (1) the 'reciprocal yield' law relating average plant mass to density, (2) a self-thinning pattern close to that measured for herbaceous species and (3) consistent changes in the size structure of plant populations with time and pedo-climatic conditions. In addition, plastic changes in the partitioning of dry matter, the N acquisition mode and in the architecture of shoots and roots emerged from the integration of plant responses to their local environment. This resulted in taller plants and thinner roots when competition was dominated by light, and shorter plants with relatively more developed root systems when competition was dominated by soil resources. A population dynamic model considering growth and morphogenesis responses to multiple resources heterogeneously distributed in the environment was presented. It should allow scaling plant-plant interactions from individual to community levels without the inconvenience of average plant models.

Comments on "Complementarity and Conflict among Population and Other Policies: Specifying an Economic-Demographic Model for a Developing Country".

PubMed

Khan, A H

1993-01-01

The critique of Mariano's economic-demographic model of population and other policies for developing countries cites the value of such a detailed model for developing a family planning policy within the context of macroeconomic government policies. The model points out the impact on fertility of effective family planning policies and increased educational expenditures. Work force participation and reduced fertility is also affected by increased female educational levels, which in combination with increasing health expenditures for children reduces infant mortality as a means of further reducing fertility. Savings and investment increase with reduced fertility and reduce population growth. Per capital income increases with higher investment and lower population growth; the effect is to increase resource availability for improvements in health and education. Rural-urban migration must be balanced by policies in urban areas supporting industrial investment and policies in rural areas for increased educational and health expenditures. Changes in the structure of demand affect the structure of the economy, which in turn affects exports. The paper contributes to a model of simultaneous equations for estimating the linkages between demography and economics factors already known. The model combines the Chicago-Columbia model and the Pennsylvania model but ignores biological variables such as those identified by Behrman and Wolfe as women's health status, breast feeding, and nutritional level. International migration may be important for some countries such as the Philippines and Thailand. Extended families may be an important variable excluded from the model. Criticism is directed to the measure of rural-urban migration which does not separate out by age those migrating between countries. The assumption is that international migrants only come from urban areas. In Bangladesh the man-land ratio was found to be important. Changing definitions of literacy may impact on the model outcomes. Cost of schooling should be considered. Regardless of the deficits in the factors included, the model is still commended.

Detection of a novel, integrative aging process suggests complex physiological integration.

PubMed

Cohen, Alan A; Milot, Emmanuel; Li, Qing; Bergeron, Patrick; Poirier, Roxane; Dusseault-Bélanger, Francis; Fülöp, Tamàs; Leroux, Maxime; Legault, Véronique; Metter, E Jeffrey; Fried, Linda P; Ferrucci, Luigi

2015-01-01

Many studies of aging examine biomarkers one at a time, but complex systems theory and network theory suggest that interpretations of individual markers may be context-dependent. Here, we attempted to detect underlying processes governing the levels of many biomarkers simultaneously by applying principal components analysis to 43 common clinical biomarkers measured longitudinally in 3694 humans from three longitudinal cohort studies on two continents (Women's Health and Aging I & II, InCHIANTI, and the Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging). The first axis was associated with anemia, inflammation, and low levels of calcium and albumin. The axis structure was precisely reproduced in all three populations and in all demographic sub-populations (by sex, race, etc.); we call the process represented by the axis "integrated albunemia." Integrated albunemia increases and accelerates with age in all populations, and predicts mortality and frailty--but not chronic disease--even after controlling for age. This suggests a role in the aging process, though causality is not yet clear. Integrated albunemia behaves more stably across populations than its component biomarkers, and thus appears to represent a higher-order physiological process emerging from the structure of underlying regulatory networks. If this is correct, detection of this process has substantial implications for physiological organization more generally.

Estimating Small-area Populations by Age and Sex Using Spatial Interpolation and Statistical Inference Methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qai, Qiang; Rushton, Gerald; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

The objective of this research is to compute population estimates by age and sex for small areas whose boundaries are different from those for which the population counts were made. In our approach, population surfaces and age-sex proportion surfaces are separately estimated. Age-sex population estimates for small areas and their confidence intervals are then computed using a binomial model with the two surfaces as inputs. The approach was implemented for Iowa using a 90 m resolution population grid (LandScan USA) and U.S. Census 2000 population. Three spatial interpolation methods, the areal weighting (AW) method, the ordinary kriging (OK) method, andmore » a modification of the pycnophylactic method, were used on Census Tract populations to estimate the age-sex proportion surfaces. To verify the model, age-sex population estimates were computed for paired Block Groups that straddled Census Tracts and therefore were spatially misaligned with them. The pycnophylactic method and the OK method were more accurate than the AW method. The approach is general and can be used to estimate subgroup-count types of variables from information in existing administrative areas for custom-defined areas used as the spatial basis of support in other applications.« less

Validation of a Social Networks and Support Measurement Tool for Use in International Aging Research: The International Mobility in Aging Study.

PubMed

Ahmed, Tamer; Belanger, Emmanuelle; Vafaei, Afshin; Koné, Georges K; Alvarado, Beatriz; Béland, François; Zunzunegui, Maria Victoria

2018-03-01

The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a new instrument to assess social networks and social support (IMIAS-SNSS) for different types of social ties in an international sample of older adults. The study sample included n = 1995 community dwelling older people aged between 65 and 74 years from the baseline of the longitudinal International Mobility in Aging Study (IMIAS). In order to measure social networks for each type of social tie, participants were asked about the number of contacts, the number of contacts they see at least once a month or have a very good relationship with, or speak with at least once a month. For social support, participants had to rate the level of social support provided by the four types of contacts for five Likert scale items. Confirmatory Factor Analysis was conducted to determine the goodness of fit of the measurement models. Satisfactory goodness-of-fit indices confirmed the satisfactory factorial structure of the IMIAS-SNSS instrument. Reliability coefficients were 0.80, 0.81, 0.85, and 0.88 for friends, children, family, and partner models, respectively. The models were confirmed by CFA for each type of social tie. Moreover, IMIAS-SNSS detected gender differences in the older adult populations of IMIAS. These results provide evidence supporting that IMIAS-SNSS is a psychometrically sound instrument and of its validity and reliability for international populations of older adults.

Is the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) a valid measure in a general population 65-80 years old? A psychometric evaluation study.

PubMed

Djukanovic, Ingrid; Carlsson, Jörg; Årestedt, Kristofer

2017-10-04

The HADS (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale) aims to measure symptoms of anxiety (HADS Anxiety) and depression (HADS Depression). The HADS is widely used but has shown ambiguous results both regarding the factor structure and sex differences in the prevalence of depressive symptoms. There is also a lack of psychometric evaluations of the HADS in non-clinical samples of older people. The aim of the study was to evaluate the factor structure of the HADS in a general population 65-80 years old and to exam possible presence of differential item functioning (DIF) with respect to sex. This study was based on data from a Swedish sample, randomized from the total population in the age group 65-80 years (n = 6659). Confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) were performed to examine the factor structure. Ordinal regression analyses were conducted to detect DIF for sex. Reliability was examined by both ordinal as well as traditional Cronbach's alpha. The CFA showed a two-factor model with cross-loadings for two items (7 and 8) had excellent model fit. Internal consistency was good in both subscales, measured with ordinal and traditional alpha. Floor effects were presented for all items. No indication for meaningful DIF regarding sex was found for any of the subscales. HADS Anxiety and HADS Depression are unidimensional measures with acceptable internal consistency and are invariant with regard to sex. Despite pronounced ceiling effects and cross-loadings for item 7 and 8, the hypothesized two-factor model of HADS can be recommended to assess psychological distress among a general population 65-80 years old.

Intercohort density dependence drives brown trout habitat selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayllón, Daniel; Nicola, Graciela G.; Parra, Irene; Elvira, Benigno; Almodóvar, Ana

2013-01-01

Habitat selection can be viewed as an emergent property of the quality and availability of habitat but also of the number of individuals and the way they compete for its use. Consequently, habitat selection can change across years due to fluctuating resources or to changes in population numbers. However, habitat selection predictive models often do not account for ecological dynamics, especially density dependent processes. In stage-structured population, the strength of density dependent interactions between individuals of different age classes can exert a profound influence on population trajectories and evolutionary processes. In this study, we aimed to assess the effects of fluctuating densities of both older and younger competing life stages on the habitat selection patterns (described as univariate and multivariate resource selection functions) of young-of-the-year, juvenile and adult brown trout Salmo trutta. We observed all age classes were selective in habitat choice but changed their selection patterns across years consistently with variations in the densities of older but not of younger age classes. Trout of an age increased selectivity for positions highly selected by older individuals when their density decreased, but this pattern did not hold when the density of younger age classes varied. It suggests that younger individuals are dominated by older ones but can expand their range of selected habitats when density of competitors decreases, while older trout do not seem to consider the density of younger individuals when distributing themselves even though they can negatively affect their final performance. Since these results may entail critical implications for conservation and management practices based on habitat selection models, further research should involve a wider range of river typologies and/or longer time frames to fully understand the patterns of and the mechanisms underlying the operation of density dependence on brown trout habitat selection.

Can males contribute to the genetic improvement of a species?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardes, Américo T.

1997-01-01

In the time evolution of finite populations, the accumulation of harmful mutations in further generations might have lead to a temporal decay in the mean fitness of the whole population. This, in turn, would reduce the population size and so lead to its extinction. The production of genetically diverse offspring, through recombination, is a powerful mechanism in order to avoid this catastrophic route. From a selfish point of view, meiotic parthenogenesis can ensure the maintenance of better genomes, while sexual reproduction presents the risk of genome dilution. In this paper, by using Monte Carlo simulations of age-structured populations, through the Penna model, I compare the evolution of populations with different repoductive regimes. It is shown that sexual reproduction with male competition can produce better results than meiotic parthenogenesis. This contradicts results recently published, but agrees with the strong evidence that nature chose sexual reproduction instead of partenogenesis for most of the higher species.

Population and prehistory II: Space-limited human populations in constant environments

PubMed Central

Puleston, Cedric O.; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2010-01-01

We present a population model to examine the forces that determined the quality and quantity of human life in early agricultural societies where cultivable area is limited. The model is driven by the non-linear and interdependent relationships between the age distribution of a population, its behavior and technology, and the nature of its environment. The common currency in the model is the production of food, on which age-specific rates of birth and death depend. There is a single nontrivial equilibrium population at which productivity balances caloric needs. One of the most powerful controls on equilibrium hunger level is fertility control. Gains against hunger are accompanied by decreases in population size. Increasing worker productivity does increase equilibrium population size but does not improve welfare at equilibrium. As a case study we apply the model to the population of a Polynesian valley before European contact. PMID:18598711

Population and prehistory II: space-limited human populations in constant environments.

PubMed

Puleston, Cedric O; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2008-09-01

We present a population model to examine the forces that determined the quality and quantity of human life in early agricultural societies where cultivable area is limited. The model is driven by the non-linear and interdependent relationships between the age distribution of a population, its behavior and technology, and the nature of its environment. The common currency in the model is the production of food, on which age-specific rates of birth and death depend. There is a single non-trivial equilibrium population at which productivity balances caloric needs. One of the most powerful controls on equilibrium hunger level is fertility control. Gains against hunger are accompanied by decreases in population size. Increasing worker productivity does increase equilibrium population size but does not improve welfare at equilibrium. As a case study we apply the model to the population of a Polynesian valley before European contact.

Changes in Visual Function in the Elderly Population in the United States: 1995-2010.

PubMed

Chen, Yiqun; Hahn, Paul; Sloan, Frank A

2016-06-01

To document recent trends in visual function among the United States population aged 70+ years and investigate how the trends can be explained by inter-temporal changes in: (1) population sociodemographic characteristics, and chronic disease prevalence, including eye diseases (compositional changes); and (2) effects of the above factors on visual function (structural changes). Data from the 1995 Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) and the 2010 Health and Retirement Study (HRS) were merged with Medicare Part B claims in the interview years and the 2 previous years. Decomposition analysis was performed. Respondents from both studies were aged 70+ years. The outcome measure was respondent self-reported visual function on a 6-point scale (from 6 = blind to 1 = excellent). Overall, visual function improved from slightly worse than good (3.14) in 1995 to slightly better than good (2.98) in 2010. A decline in adverse effects of aging on vision was found. Among the compositional changes were higher educational attainment leading to improved vision, and higher prevalence of such diseases as diabetes mellitus, which tended to lower visual function. However, compared to compositional changes, structural changes were far more important, including decreased adverse effects of aging, diabetes mellitus (when not controlling for eye diseases), and diagnosed glaucoma. Although the US population has aged and is expected to age further, visual function improved among elderly persons, especially among persons 80+ years, likely reflecting a favorable role of structural changes identified in this study in mitigating the adverse effect of ongoing aging on vision.

Cross-national health comparisons using the Rasch model: findings from the 2012 US Health and Retirement Study and the 2012 Mexican Health and Aging Study.

PubMed

Hong, Ickpyo; Reistetter, Timothy A; Díaz-Venegas, Carlos; Michaels-Obregon, Alejandra; Wong, Rebeca

2018-05-10

Cross-national comparisons of patterns of population aging have emerged as comparable national micro-data have become available. This study creates a metric using Rasch analysis and determines the health of American and Mexican older adult populations. Secondary data analysis using representative samples aged 50 and older from 2012 U.S. Health and Retirement Study (n = 20,554); 2012 Mexican Health and Aging Study (n = 14,448). We developed a function measurement scale using Rasch analysis of 22 daily tasks and physical function questions. We tested psychometrics of the scale including factor analysis, fit statistics, internal consistency, and item difficulty. We investigated differences in function using multiple linear regression controlling for demographics. Lastly, we conducted subgroup analyses for chronic conditions. The created common metric demonstrated a unidimensional structure with good item fit, an acceptable precision (person reliability = 0.78), and an item difficulty hierarchy. The American adults appeared less functional than adults in Mexico (β = - 0.26, p < 0.0001) and across two chronic conditions (arthritis, β = - 0.36; lung problems, β = - 0.62; all p < 0.05). However, American adults with stroke were more functional than Mexican adults (β = 0.46, p = 0.047). The Rasch model indicates that Mexican adults were more functional than Americans at the population level and across two chronic conditions (arthritis and lung problems). Future studies would need to elucidate other factors affecting the function differences between the two countries.

Re-Organizing Universities for the Information Age

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Annand, David

2007-01-01

University education is still generally conducted within pre-Industrial Age organizational structures. As a result of their inability to evolve the predominant cohort-based classroom structure to more cost-effectively meet the aspirations of burgeoning worldwide populations for higher education, universities may see substantial organizational…

Stellar populations in spiral galaxies: Broadband versus spectroscopic viewpoints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacArthur, Lauren Anne

This thesis addresses the stellar population content in the bulges and disks of spiral galaxies using broad-band and spectroscopic data. The results can be used to constrain models of galaxy formation in addition to establishing a comprehensive, model-independent, picture of colour and line-index gradients in spiral galaxies. Building upon my Masters study of structural parameters in spiral galaxies, I use the largest collection of multi-band (optical and IR) surface brightness profiles for face-on and moderately-tilted galaxies to extract radial colour profiles. The colour gradients are then translated into age and metallicity gradients by comparison with stellar population synthesis (SPS) models considering a range of star formation histories, including recent bursts. Based on their integrated light, we find that high surface brightness (SB) regions of galaxies formed their stars earlier than lower SB ones, or at a similar epoch but on shorter timescale. At a given SB level, the star formation histories are modulated by the overall potential of the galaxy such that brighter/higher rotational velocity galaxies formed earlier. This formation "down-sizing" implied by our results is inconsistent with current implementations of semi-analytic structure formation models. In order to alleviate concerns that our colour gradients could be affected by dust reddening, we designed a similar spectroscopic investigation and explored the dust sensitivity of absorption-line indices. The latter test makes use of the latest SPS, models incorporating a multi-component model for the line and continuum attenuation due to dust. For quiescent stellar populations (e.g. spheroids and globular clusters), dust extinction effects are small for most indices with the exception of the 4000 Å break. For models with current star formation, many indices may suffer from dust reddening and any departures depend on age, dust distribution, and the effective optical depth. However, a number of useful indices are only weakly affected by dust extinction (especially relative to typical measurement uncertainties), and can thus be safely used in spectroscopic studies of dusty systems. Motivated by our previous results, we embarked on a long-term project to determine age and metallicity gradients from absorption features in spiral galaxy spectra from their centers and extending well into their disks for the first time. A pilot sample of 8 barred and unbarred nearby spiral galaxies was observed with Gemini/GMOS and line indices with S/N > 40 per Å were extracted out to ~1-1.5 disk scale lengths. Emission contamination and a suite of instrumental effects were fully taken into account. Reliable line-indices compared with the latest SPS models reveal that; (i) late-type bulges and inner disks are generally young (light-weighted SSP ages <1 to 6 Gyr) with no age gradients, and (ii) late-type spirals have metallicities close to solar at their center decreasing rapidly outward (with gradients of ~-0.3 to -0.7 dex per r d ). Disk contamination into the bulge is an issue but the inferred young ages exclude the interpretation of early rapid collapse or merger origin of late-type bulges. While secular evolution processes are likely the predominant mechanism for the bulge build-up, the strong observed metallicity gradients are not currently supported by such models. Our analysis has demonstrated the feasibility of age and metallicity determinations from longslit spectroscopy of gas rich, star-forming systems. However, a systematic comparison with galaxy properties requires a larger statistical sample. New GMOS longslit spectra acquired recently will augment our data base and contribute to the build-up of this instrumental data base for the study of bulge and disk formation models.

Stellar populations in spiral galaxies: broadband versus spectroscopic viewpoints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacArthur, Lauren Anne

2006-06-01

This thesis addresses the stellar population content in the bulges and disks of spiral galaxies using broad-band and spectroscopic data. The results can be used to constrain models of galaxy formation in addition to establishing a comprehensive, model-independent, picture of colour and line-index gradients in spiral galaxies. Building upon my Masters study of structural parameters in spiral galaxies, I use the largest collection of multi-band (optical and IR) surface brightness profiles for face-on and moderately-tilted galaxies to extract radial colour profiles. The colour gradients are then translated into age and metallicity gradients by comparison with stellar population synthesis (SPS) models considering a range of star formation histories, including recent bursts. Based on their integrated light, we find that high surface brightness (SB) regions of galaxies formed their stars earlier than lower SB ones, or at a similar epoch but on shorter timescale. At a given SB level, the star formation histories are modulated by the overall potential of the galaxy such that brighter/higher rotational velocity galaxies formed earlier. This formation "down-sizing" implied by our results is inconsistent with current implementations of semi-analytic structure formation models. In order to alleviate concerns that our colour gradients could be affected by dust reddening, we designed a similar spectroscopic investigation and explored the dust sensitivity of absorption-line indices. The latter test makes use of the latest SPS, models incorporating a multi-component model for the line and continuum attenuation due to dust. For quiescent stellar populations (e.g. spheroids and globular clusters), dust extinction effects are small for most indices with the exception of the 4000 Å break. For models with current star formation, many indices may suffer from dust reddening and any departures depend on age, dust distribution, and the effective optical depth. However, a number of useful indices are only weakly affected by dust extinction (especially relative to typical measurement uncertainties), and can thus be safely used in spectroscopic studies of dusty systems. Motivated by our previous results, we embarked on a long-term project to determine age and metallicity gradients from absorption features in spiral galaxy spectra from their centers and extending well into their disks for the first time. A pilot sample of 8 barred and unbarred nearby spiral galaxies was observed with Gemini/GMOS and line indices with S/N > 40 per Å were extracted out to ~1-1.5 disk scale lengths. Emission contamination and a suite of instrumental effects were fully taken into account. Reliable line-indices compared with the latest SPS models reveal that; (i) late-type bulges and inner disks are generally young (light-weighted SSP ages <= 1 to 6 Gyr) with no age gradients, and (ii) late-type spirals have metallicities close to solar at their center decreasing rapidly outward (with gradients of ~-0.3 to -0.7 dex per r d ). Disk contamination into the bulge is an issue but the inferred young ages exclude the interpretation of early rapid collapse or merger origin of late-type bulges. While secular evolution processes are likely the predominant mechanism for the bulge build-up, the strong observed metallicity gradients are not currently supported by such models. Our analysis has demonstrated the feasibility of age and metallicity determinations from longslit spectroscopy of gas rich, star-forming systems. However, a systematic comparison with galaxy properties requires a larger statistical sample. New GMOS longslit spectra acquired recently will augment our data base and contribute to the build-up of this instrumental data base for the study of bulge and disk formation models.

Non-suicidal self-injury in eating disordered patients: a test of a conceptual model.

PubMed

Muehlenkamp, Jennifer J; Claes, Laurence; Smits, Dirk; Peat, Christine M; Vandereycken, Walter

2011-06-30

A theoretical model explaining the high co-occurrence of non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) in eating disordered populations as resulting from childhood traumatic experiences, low self-esteem, psychopathology, dissociation, and body dissatisfaction was previously proposed but not empirically tested. The current study empirically evaluated the fit of this proposed model within a sample of 422 young adult females (mean age=21.60; S.D.=6.27) consecutively admitted to an inpatient treatment unit for eating disorders. Participants completed a packet of questionnaires within a week of admission. Structural equation modeling procedures showed the model provided a good fit to the data, accounting for 15% of the variance in NSSI. Childhood trauma appears to have an indirect relationship to NSSI that is likely to be expressed via relationships to low self-esteem, psychopathology, body dissatisfaction, and dissociation. It appears that dissociation and body dissatisfaction may be particularly salient factors to consider in both understanding and treating NSSI within an eating disordered population. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variation in probability of first reproduction of Weddell seals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hadley, G.L.; Rotella, J.J.; Garrott, R.A.; Nichols, J.D.

2006-01-01

Summary 1. For many species, when to begin reproduction is an important life-history decision that varies by individual and can have substantial implications for lifetime reproductive success and fitness. 2. We estimated age-specific probabilities of first-time breeding and modelled variation in these rates to determine age at first reproduction and understand why it varies in a population of Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We used multistate mark?recapture modelling methods and encounter histories of 4965 known-age female seals to test predictions about age-related variation in probability of first reproduction and the effects of annual variation, cohort and population density. 3. Mean age at first reproduction in this southerly located study population (7.62 years of age, SD =1.71) was greater than age at first reproduction for a Weddell seal population at a more northerly and typical latitude for breeding Weddell seals (mean =4?5 years of age). This difference suggests that age at first reproduction may be influenced by whether a population inhabits the core or periphery of its range. 4. Age at first reproduction varied from 4 to 14 years, but there was no age by which all seals recruited to the breeding population, suggesting that individual heterogeneity exists among females in this population. 5. In the best model, the probability of breeding for the first time varied by age and year, and the amount of annual variation varied with age (average variance ratio for age-specific rates =4.3%). 6. Our results affirmed the predictions of life-history theory that age at first reproduction in long-lived mammals will be sensitive to environmental variation. In terms of life history evolution, this variability suggests that Weddell seals display flexibility in age at first reproduction in order to maximize reproductive output under varying environmental conditions. Future analyses will attempt to test predictions regarding relationships between environmental covariates and annual variation in age at first reproduction and evaluate the relationship between age at first reproduction and lifetime reproductive success.

A generalised age- and phase-structured model of human tumour cell populations both unperturbed and exposed to a range of cancer therapies.

PubMed

Basse, Britta; Ubezio, Paolo

2007-07-01

We develop a general mathematical model for a population of cells differentiated by their position within the cell division cycle. A system of partial differential equations governs the kinetics of cell densities in certain phases of the cell division cycle dependent on time t (hours) and an age-like variable tau (hours) describing the time since arrival in a particular phase of the cell division cycle. Transition rate functions control the transfer of cells between phases. We first obtain a theoretical solution on the infinite domain -infinity < t < infinity. We then assume that age distributions at time t=0 are known and write our solution in terms of these age distributions on t=0. In practice, of course, these age distributions are unknown. All is not lost, however, because a cell line before treatment usually lies in a state of asynchronous balanced growth where the proportion of cells in each phase of the cell cycle remain constant. We assume that an unperturbed cell line has four distinct phases and that the rate of transition between phases is constant within a short period of observation ('short' relative to the whole history of the tumour growth) and we show that under certain conditions, this is equivalent to exponential growth or decline. We can then gain expressions for the age distributions. So, in short, our approach is to assume that we have an unperturbed cell line on t

Wild European apple (Malus sylvestris (L.) Mill.) population dynamics: insight from genetics and ecology in the Rhine Valley. Priorities for a future conservation programme.

PubMed

Schnitzler, Annik; Arnold, Claire; Cornille, Amandine; Bachmann, Olivier; Schnitzler, Christophe

2014-01-01

The increasing fragmentation of forest habitats and the omnipresence of cultivars potentially threaten the genetic integrity of the European wild apple (Malus sylvestris (L.) Mill). However, the conservation status of this species remains unclear in Europe, other than in Belgium and the Czech Republic, where it has been declared an endangered species. The population density of M. sylvestris is higher in the forests of the upper Rhine Valley (France) than in most European forests, with an unbalanced age-structure, an overrepresentation of adults and a tendency to clump. We characterize here the ecology, age-structure and genetic diversity of wild apple populations in the Rhine Valley. We use these data to highlight links to the history of this species and to propose guidelines for future conservation strategies. In total, 255 individual wild apple trees from six forest stands (five floodplain forests and one forest growing in drier conditions) were analysed in the field, collected and genotyped on the basis of data for 15 microsatellite markers. Genetic analyses showed no escaped cultivars and few hybrids with the cultivated apple. Excluding the hybrids, the genetically "pure" populations displayed high levels of genetic diversity and a weak population structure. Age-structure and ecology studies of wild apple populations identified four categories that were not randomly distributed across the forests, reflecting the history of the Rhine forest over the last century. The Rhine wild apple populations, with their ecological strategies, high genetic diversity, and weak traces of crop-to-wild gene flow associated with the history of these floodplain forests, constitute candidate populations for inclusion in future conservation programmes for European wild apple.

Wild European Apple (Malus sylvestris (L.) Mill.) Population Dynamics: Insight from Genetics and Ecology in the Rhine Valley. Priorities for a Future Conservation Programme

PubMed Central

Schnitzler, Annik; Arnold, Claire; Cornille, Amandine; Bachmann, Olivier; Schnitzler, Christophe

2014-01-01

The increasing fragmentation of forest habitats and the omnipresence of cultivars potentially threaten the genetic integrity of the European wild apple (Malus sylvestris (L.) Mill). However, the conservation status of this species remains unclear in Europe, other than in Belgium and the Czech Republic, where it has been declared an endangered species. The population density of M. sylvestris is higher in the forests of the upper Rhine Valley (France) than in most European forests, with an unbalanced age-structure, an overrepresentation of adults and a tendency to clump. We characterize here the ecology, age-structure and genetic diversity of wild apple populations in the Rhine Valley. We use these data to highlight links to the history of this species and to propose guidelines for future conservation strategies. In total, 255 individual wild apple trees from six forest stands (five floodplain forests and one forest growing in drier conditions) were analysed in the field, collected and genotyped on the basis of data for 15 microsatellite markers. Genetic analyses showed no escaped cultivars and few hybrids with the cultivated apple. Excluding the hybrids, the genetically “pure” populations displayed high levels of genetic diversity and a weak population structure. Age-structure and ecology studies of wild apple populations identified four categories that were not randomly distributed across the forests, reflecting the history of the Rhine forest over the last century. The Rhine wild apple populations, with their ecological strategies, high genetic diversity, and weak traces of crop-to-wild gene flow associated with the history of these floodplain forests, constitute candidate populations for inclusion in future conservation programmes for European wild apple. PMID:24827575

Population PK Modeling and Target Attainment Simulations to Support Dosing of Ceftaroline Fosamil in Pediatric Patients With Acute Bacterial Skin and Skin Structure Infections and Community-Acquired Bacterial Pneumonia.

PubMed

Riccobene, Todd A; Khariton, Tatiana; Knebel, William; Das, Shampa; Li, James; Jandourek, Alena; Carrothers, Timothy J; Bradley, John S

2017-03-01

Ceftaroline, the active form of the prodrug ceftaroline fosamil, is approved for use in adults with community-acquired bacterial pneumonia (CABP) or acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections (ABSSSI) in the United States and for similar indications in Europe. Pharmacokinetic (PK) data from 5 pediatric (birth to <18 years) studies of ceftaroline fosamil were combined with PK data from adults to update a population PK model for ceftaroline and ceftaroline fosamil. This model, based on a data set including 305 children, was used to conduct simulations to estimate ceftaroline exposures and percentage of time that free drug concentrations were above the minimum inhibitory concentration (%fT>MIC) for pediatric dose regimens. With dose regimens of 8 mg/kg every 8 hours (q8h) in children aged 2 months to <2 years and 12 mg/kg (up to a maximum of 400 mg) q8h in children aged 2 years to <18 years or 600 mg q12h in children aged 12 to <18 years, >90% of children were predicted to achieve a target of 36% fT>MIC at an MIC of 2 mg/L, and >97% were predicted to achieve 44% fT>MIC at an MIC of 1 mg/L. Thus, high PK/pharmacodynamic target attainment would be maintained in children for targets associated with 1-log kill of Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pneumoniae. The predicted ceftaroline exposures for these dose regimens were similar to those in adults given 600 mg q12h ceftaroline fosamil. This work contributed to the approval of dose regimens for children aged 2 months to <18 years by the FDA and EMA, which are presented. © 2016, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

Variation in Age and Size in Fennoscandian Three-Spined Sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus)

PubMed Central

DeFaveri, Jacquelin; Merilä, Juha

2013-01-01

Average age and maximum life span of breeding adult three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) were determined in eight Fennoscandian localities with the aid of skeletochronology. The average age varied from 1.8 to 3.6 years, and maximum life span from three to six years depending on the locality. On average, fish from marine populations were significantly older than those from freshwater populations, but variation within habitat types was large. We also found significant differences in mean body size among different habitat types and populations, but only the population differences remained significant after accounting for variation due to age effects. These results show that generation length and longevity in three-spined sticklebacks can vary significantly from one locality to another, and that population differences in mean body size cannot be explained as a simple consequence of differences in population age structure. We also describe a nanistic population from northern Finland exhibiting long life span and small body size. PMID:24260496

Variation in age and size in Fennoscandian three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus).

PubMed

DeFaveri, Jacquelin; Merilä, Juha

2013-01-01

Average age and maximum life span of breeding adult three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) were determined in eight Fennoscandian localities with the aid of skeletochronology. The average age varied from 1.8 to 3.6 years, and maximum life span from three to six years depending on the locality. On average, fish from marine populations were significantly older than those from freshwater populations, but variation within habitat types was large. We also found significant differences in mean body size among different habitat types and populations, but only the population differences remained significant after accounting for variation due to age effects. These results show that generation length and longevity in three-spined sticklebacks can vary significantly from one locality to another, and that population differences in mean body size cannot be explained as a simple consequence of differences in population age structure. We also describe a nanistic population from northern Finland exhibiting long life span and small body size.

The mediational role of physical activity, social contact and stroke on the association between age, education, employment and dementia in an Asian older adult population.

PubMed

Abdin, Edimansyah; Chong, Siow Ann; Peh, Chao Xu; Vaingankar, Janhavi Ajit; Chua, Boon Yiang; Verma, Swapna; Jeyagurunathan, Anitha; Shafie, Saleha; Subramaniam, Mythily

2017-03-20

Our study aimed to investigate the pathways by which socio-demographic factors, modifiable health and lifestyle risk factors influence each other, and subsequently, lead to dementia. We used data from the Well-being of the Singapore Elderly study, a nationally representative survey of the older adult population aged 60 years and above in Singapore. Dementia diagnosis was established using 10/66 dementia criteria. Structural equation modelling (SEM) without latent variable was applied to confirm the hypothesized model. The results of SEM supported the hypothesized model (χ 2 = 14.999, df = 10, p = 0.132). The final model showed that those aged 75-84 years and 85 years and over (vs. 60-74 years), having no formal education, who had completed primary or secondary education (vs. completed tertiary), who were homemakers and retired (vs. paid work), and with a history of stroke were directly associated with higher odds of having dementia, while those who had more frequent contact with friends and neighbors as well as being physically active were directly associated with lower odds of having dementia diagnosis. The study also found that physical activity, more frequent contact with friends and stroke played a significant role as mediators in these relationships. The overall pathways model explained 57.7% of the variance in dementia. Our results suggest that physical activity, social contact and stroke were potential mediators in the relationship between age, education, employment and dementia. Intervention programmes focusing on physical activity such as exercise and social contact may be useful in reducing the risk of dementia among older adults.

Modelling southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina using an individual-based model coupled with a dynamic energy budget

PubMed Central

Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Corney, Stuart P.; McMahon, Clive R.; Hindell, Mark A.

2018-01-01

Higher trophic-level species are an integral component of any marine ecosystem. Despite their importance, methods for representing these species in end-to-end ecosystem models often have limited representation of life histories, energetics and behaviour. We built an individual-based model coupled with a dynamic energy budget for female southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina to demonstrate a method for detailed representation of marine mammals. We aimed to develop a model which could i) simulate energy use and life histories, as well as breeding traits of southern elephant seals in an emergent manner, ii) project a stable population over time, and iii) have realistic population dynamics and structure based on emergent life history features (such as age at first breeding, lifespan, fecundity and (yearling) survival). We evaluated the model’s ability to represent a stable population over long time periods (>10 generations), including the sensitivity of the emergent properties to variations in key parameters. Analyses indicated that the model is sensitive to changes in resource availability and energy requirements for the transition from pup to juvenile, and juvenile to adult stage. This was particularly the case for breeding success and yearling survival. This model is suitable for use as a standalone tool for investigating the impacts of changes to behaviour and population responses of southern elephant seals. PMID:29596456

Lake Erie Yellow perch age estimation based on three structures: Precision, processing times, and management implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vandergoot, C.S.; Bur, M.T.; Powell, K.A.

2008-01-01

Yellow perch Perca flavescens support economically important recreational and commercial fisheries in Lake Erie and are intensively managed. Age estimation represents an integral component in the management of Lake Erie yellow perch stocks, as age-structured population models are used to set safe harvest levels on an annual basis. We compared the precision associated with yellow perch (N = 251) age estimates from scales, sagittal otoliths, and anal spine sections and evaluated the time required to process and estimate age from each structure. Three readers of varying experience estimated ages. The precision (mean coefficient of variation) of estimates among readers was 1% for sagittal otoliths, 5-6% for anal spines, and 11-13% for scales. Agreement rates among readers were 94-95% for otoliths, 71-76% for anal spines, and 45-50% for scales. Systematic age estimation differences were evident among scale and anal spine readers; less-experienced readers tended to underestimate ages of yellow perch older than age 4 relative to estimates made by an experienced reader. Mean scale age tended to underestimate ages of age-6 and older fish relative to otolith ages estimated by an experienced reader. Total annual mortality estimates based on scale ages were 20% higher than those based on otolith ages; mortality estimates based on anal spine ages were 4% higher than those based on otolith ages. Otoliths required more removal and preparation time than scales and anal spines, but age estimation time was substantially lower for otoliths than for the other two structures. We suggest the use of otoliths or anal spines for age estimation in yellow perch (regardless of length) from Lake Erie and other systems where precise age estimates are necessary, because age estimation errors resulting from the use of scales could generate incorrect management decisions. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

Advancing paternal age at birth is associated with poorer social functioning earlier and later in life of schizophrenia patients in a founder population.

PubMed

Liebenberg, Rudolf; van Heerden, Brigitte; Ehlers, René; Du Plessis, Anna M E; Roos, J Louw

2016-09-30

Consistent associations have been found between advanced paternal age and an increased risk of psychiatric disorders, such as schizophrenia, in their offspring. This increase appears to be linear as paternal age increases. The present study investigates the relationship between early deviant behaviour in the first 10 years of life of patients as well as longer term functional outcome and paternal age in sporadic Afrikaner founder population cases of schizophrenia. This might improve our understanding of Paternal Age-Related Schizophrenia (PARS). Follow-up psychiatric diagnoses were confirmed by the Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies (DIGS). An early deviant childhood behaviour semi-structured questionnaire and the Specific Level of Functioning Assessment (SLOF) were completed. From the logistic regression models fitted, a significant negative relationship was found between paternal age at birth and social dysfunction as early deviant behaviour. Additionally, regression analysis revealed a significant negative relationship between paternal age at birth and the SLOF for interpersonal relationships later in life. Early social dysfunction may represent a phenotypic trait for PARS. Further research is required to understand the relationship between early social dysfunction and deficits in interpersonal relationships later in life. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A stochastic step model of replicative senescence explains ROS production rate in ageing cell populations.

PubMed

Lawless, Conor; Jurk, Diana; Gillespie, Colin S; Shanley, Daryl; Saretzki, Gabriele; von Zglinicki, Thomas; Passos, João F

2012-01-01

Increases in cellular Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) concentration with age have been observed repeatedly in mammalian tissues. Concomitant increases in the proportion of replicatively senescent cells in ageing mammalian tissues have also been observed. Populations of mitotic human fibroblasts cultured in vitro, undergoing transition from proliferation competence to replicative senescence are useful models of ageing human tissues. Similar exponential increases in ROS with age have been observed in this model system. Tracking individual cells in dividing populations is difficult, and so the vast majority of observations have been cross-sectional, at the population level, rather than longitudinal observations of individual cells.One possible explanation for these observations is an exponential increase in ROS in individual fibroblasts with time (e.g. resulting from a vicious cycle between cellular ROS and damage). However, we demonstrate an alternative, simple hypothesis, equally consistent with these observations which does not depend on any gradual increase in ROS concentration: the Stochastic Step Model of Replicative Senescence (SSMRS). We also demonstrate that, consistent with the SSMRS, neither proliferation-competent human fibroblasts of any age, nor populations of hTERT overexpressing human fibroblasts passaged beyond the Hayflick limit, display high ROS concentrations. We conclude that longitudinal studies of single cells and their lineages are now required for testing hypotheses about roles and mechanisms of ROS increase during replicative senescence.

A Stochastic Step Model of Replicative Senescence Explains ROS Production Rate in Ageing Cell Populations

PubMed Central

Lawless, Conor; Jurk, Diana; Gillespie, Colin S.; Shanley, Daryl; Saretzki, Gabriele; von Zglinicki, Thomas; Passos, João F.

2012-01-01

Increases in cellular Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) concentration with age have been observed repeatedly in mammalian tissues. Concomitant increases in the proportion of replicatively senescent cells in ageing mammalian tissues have also been observed. Populations of mitotic human fibroblasts cultured in vitro, undergoing transition from proliferation competence to replicative senescence are useful models of ageing human tissues. Similar exponential increases in ROS with age have been observed in this model system. Tracking individual cells in dividing populations is difficult, and so the vast majority of observations have been cross-sectional, at the population level, rather than longitudinal observations of individual cells. One possible explanation for these observations is an exponential increase in ROS in individual fibroblasts with time (e.g. resulting from a vicious cycle between cellular ROS and damage). However, we demonstrate an alternative, simple hypothesis, equally consistent with these observations which does not depend on any gradual increase in ROS concentration: the Stochastic Step Model of Replicative Senescence (SSMRS). We also demonstrate that, consistent with the SSMRS, neither proliferation-competent human fibroblasts of any age, nor populations of hTERT overexpressing human fibroblasts passaged beyond the Hayflick limit, display high ROS concentrations. We conclude that longitudinal studies of single cells and their lineages are now required for testing hypotheses about roles and mechanisms of ROS increase during replicative senescence. PMID:22359661

Screening disordered eating in a representative sample of the German population: Usefulness and psychometric properties of the German SCOFF questionnaire.

PubMed

Richter, Felicitas; Strauss, Bernhard; Braehler, Elmar; Adametz, Luise; Berger, Uwe

2017-04-01

The prevention of eating disorders and the identification of high-risk individuals are essential for the public health sector. There is need for sensitive and specific screening instruments of disordered eating that can be applied in universal samples as an initial step into disease prevention. The SCOFF is a screening instrument for disordered eating, frequently used in international and cross-cultural contexts to detect individuals at risk. The objective of this research is to evaluate whether the SCOFF can be used as a screening tool for disordered eating in universal samples. This is the first study which examined the psychometric properties of the German version of the SCOFF in a general population sample. A representative sample (N=2527) of the German population, aged 14-95years, was recruited. Psychometric properties were determined including reliability, concurrent and construct validity, and factor structure. The prevalence of disordered eating was assessed. The prevalence of disordered eating in the general population was 10%. Using the established cutoff point of ≥2, values for diagnostic accuracy were 26% (sensitivity), 97% (specificity), 80% (positive predictive value), and 74% (negative predictive value). Factorial analyses revealed an excellent model fit of a unidimensional model. Due to its low sensitivity and a high percentage of false negatives, there are limitations in using the German version of the SCOFF in general population samples with wide age ranges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling livestock population structure: a geospatial database for Ontario swine farms.

PubMed

Khan, Salah Uddin; O'Sullivan, Terri L; Poljak, Zvonimir; Alsop, Janet; Greer, Amy L

2018-01-30

Infectious diseases in farmed animals have economic, social, and health consequences. Foreign animal diseases (FAD) of swine are of significant concern. Mathematical and simulation models are often used to simulate FAD outbreaks and best practices for control. However, simulation outcomes are sensitive to the population structure used. Within Canada, access to individual swine farm population data with which to parameterize models is a challenge because of privacy concerns. Our objective was to develop a methodology to model the farmed swine population in Ontario, Canada that could represent the existing population structure and improve the efficacy of simulation models. We developed a swine population model based on the factors such as facilities supporting farm infrastructure, land availability, zoning and local regulations, and natural geographic barriers that could affect swine farming in Ontario. Assigned farm locations were equal to the swine farm density described in the 2011 Canadian Census of Agriculture. Farms were then randomly assigned to farm types proportional to the existing swine herd types. We compared the swine population models with a known database of swine farm locations in Ontario and found that the modeled population was representative of farm locations with a high accuracy (AUC: 0.91, Standard deviation: 0.02) suggesting that our algorithm generated a reasonable approximation of farm locations in Ontario. In the absence of a readily accessible dataset providing details of the relative locations of swine farms in Ontario, development of a model livestock population that captures key characteristics of the true population structure while protecting privacy concerns is an important methodological advancement. This methodology will be useful for individuals interested in modeling the spread of pathogens between farms across a landscape and using these models to evaluate disease control strategies.

The Four-Dimensional Symptom Questionnaire (4DSQ) in the general population: scale structure, reliability, measurement invariance and normative data: a cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Terluin, Berend; Smits, Niels; Brouwers, Evelien P M; de Vet, Henrica C W

2016-09-15

The Four-Dimensional Symptom Questionnaire (4DSQ) is a self-report questionnaire measuring distress, depression, anxiety and somatization with separate scales. The 4DSQ has extensively been validated in clinical samples, especially from primary care settings. Information about measurement properties and normative data in the general population was lacking. In a Dutch general population sample we examined the 4DSQ scales' structure, the scales' reliability and measurement invariance with respect to gender, age and education, the scales' score distributions across demographic categories, and normative data. 4DSQ data were collected in a representative Dutch Internet panel. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to examine the scales' structure. Reliability was examined by Cronbach's alpha, and coefficients omega-total and omega-hierarchical. Differential item functioning (DIF) analysis was used to evaluate measurement invariance across gender, age and education. The total response rate was 82.4 % (n = 5273/6399). The depression scale proved to be unidimensional. The other scales were best represented as bifactor models consisting of a large general factor and one or more smaller specific factors. The general factors accounted for more than 95 % of the reliable variance of the scales. Reliability was high (≥0.85) by all estimates. The distress-, depression- and anxiety scales were invariant across gender, age and education. The somatization scale demonstrated some lack of measurement invariance as a result of decreased thresholds for some of the items in young people (16-24 years) and increased thresholds in elderly people (65+ years). The somatization scale was invariant regarding gender and education. The 4DSQ scores varied significantly across demographic categories, but the explained variance was small (<6 %). Normative data were generated for gender and age categories. Approximately 17 % of the participants scored above average on de distress scale, whereas 12 % scored above average on de somatization scale. Percentages of people scoring high enough on depression or anxiety as to suspect the presence of depressive or anxiety disorder were 4.1 and 2.5 respectively. Evidence supports reliability and measurement invariance of the 4DSQ in the general Dutch population. The normative data provided in this study can be used to compare a subject's 4DSQ scores with a general population reference group.

Predatory senescence in ageing wolves.

PubMed

MacNulty, Daniel R; Smith, Douglas W; Vucetich, John A; Mech, L David; Stahler, Daniel R; Packer, Craig

2009-12-01

It is well established that ageing handicaps the ability of prey to escape predators, yet surprisingly little is known about how ageing affects the ability of predators to catch prey. Research into long-lived predators has assumed that adults have uniform impacts on prey regardless of age. Here we use longitudinal data from repeated observations of individually-known wolves (Canis lupus) hunting elk (Cervus elaphus) in Yellowstone National Park to demonstrate that adult predatory performance declines with age and that an increasing ratio of senescent individuals in the wolf population depresses the rate of prey offtake. Because this ratio fluctuates independently of population size, predatory senescence may cause wolf populations of equal size but different age structure to have different impacts on prey populations. These findings suggest that predatory senescence is an important, though overlooked, factor affecting predator-prey dynamics.

Predatory senescence in ageing wolves

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacNulty, D.R.; Smith, D.W.; Vucetich, J.A.; Mech, L.D.; Stahler, D.R.; Packer, C.

2009-01-01

It is well established that ageing handicaps the ability of prey to escape predators, yet surprisingly little is known about how ageing affects the ability of predators to catch prey. Research into long-lived predators has assumed that adults have uniform impacts on prey regardless of age. Here we use longitudinal data from repeated observations of individually-known wolves (Canis lupus) hunting elk (Cervus elaphus) in Yellowstone National Park to demonstrate that adult predatory performance declines with age and that an increasing ratio of senescent individuals in the wolf population depresses the rate of prey offtake. Because this ratio fluctuates independently of population size, predatory senescence may cause wolf populations of equal size but different age structure to have different impacts on prey populations. These findings suggest that predatory senescence is an important, though overlooked, factor affecting predator-prey dynamics. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Predatory senescence in aging wolves

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacNulty, Daniel R.; Smith, Douglas W.; Vucetich, John A.; Mech, L. David; Stahler, Daniel R.; Packer, Craig

2009-01-01

It is well established that ageing handicaps the ability of prey to escape predators, yet surprisingly little is known about how ageing affects the ability of predators to catch prey. Research into long-lived predators has assumed that adults have uniform impacts on prey regardless of age. Here we use longitudinal data from repeated observations of individually-known wolves (Canis lupus) hunting elk (Cervus elaphus) in Yellowstone National Park to demonstrate that adult predatory performance declines with age and that an increasing ratio of senescent individuals in the wolf population depresses the rate of prey offtake. Because this ratio fluctuates independently of population size, predatory senescence may cause wolf populations of equal size but different age structure to have different impacts on prey populations. These findings suggest that predatory senescence is an important, though overlooked, factor affecting predator-prey dynamics.

Ecogeography, genetics, and the evolution of human body form.

PubMed

Roseman, Charles C; Auerbach, Benjamin M

2015-01-01

Genetic resemblances among groups are non-randomly distributed in humans. This population structure may influence the correlations between traits and environmental drivers of natural selection thus complicating the interpretation of the fossil record when modern human variation is used as a referential model. In this paper, we examine the effects of population structure and natural selection on postcranial traits that reflect body size and shape with application to the more general issue of how climate - using latitude as a proxy - has influenced hominin morphological variation. We compare models that include terms reflecting population structure, ascertained from globally distributed microsatellite data, and latitude on postcranial phenotypes derived from skeletal dimensions taken from a large global sample of modern humans. We find that models with a population structure term fit better than a model of natural selection along a latitudinal cline in all cases. A model including both latitude and population structure terms is a good fit to distal limb element lengths and bi-iliac breadth, indicating that multiple evolutionary forces shaped these morphologies. In contrast, a model that included only a population structure term best explained femoral head diameter and the crural index. The results demonstrate that population structure is an important part of human postcranial variation, and that clinally distributed natural selection is not sufficient to explain among-group differentiation. The distribution of human body form is strongly influenced by the contingencies of modern human origins, which calls for new ways to approach problems in the evolution of human variation, past and present. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies. A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm

DOE PAGES

Vugrin, Eric D.; Rostron, Brian L.; Verzi, Stephen J.; ...

2015-03-27

Background Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. Methods and Findings We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use formore » the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Conclusion Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.« less

Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies: A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm

PubMed Central

Vugrin, Eric D.; Rostron, Brian L.; Verzi, Stephen J.; Brodsky, Nancy S.; Brown, Theresa J.; Choiniere, Conrad J.; Coleman, Blair N.; Paredes, Antonio; Apelberg, Benjamin J.

2015-01-01

Background Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. Methods and Findings We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Conclusion Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability. PMID:25815840

Modeling the potential effects of new tobacco products and policies: a dynamic population model for multiple product use and harm.

PubMed

Vugrin, Eric D; Rostron, Brian L; Verzi, Stephen J; Brodsky, Nancy S; Brown, Theresa J; Choiniere, Conrad J; Coleman, Blair N; Paredes, Antonio; Apelberg, Benjamin J

2015-01-01

Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.

Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies. A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vugrin, Eric D.; Rostron, Brian L.; Verzi, Stephen J.

Background Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. Methods and Findings We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use formore » the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Conclusion Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.« less

Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan

PubMed Central

Chen, Brian K.; Jalal, Hawre; Hashimoto, Hideki; Suen, Sze-chuan; Eggleston, Karen; Hurley, Michael; Schoemaker, Lena; Bhattacharya, Jay

2016-01-01

Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan’s future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study estimates a new state-transition microsimulation model – the Japanese Future Elderly Model (FEM) – for Japan. We use the model to forecast disability and health for Japan’s future elderly. Our simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan’s elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific morbidity can help reduce the burden of disability but may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly. While both age and morbidity contribute to a predicted increase in disability burden among elderly Japanese in the future, our simulation results suggest that the impact of population aging exceeds the effect of age-specific morbidity on increasing disability in Japan’s future. PMID:28580275

[An adjustment to the age structure of the Italian population in the 1971 census].

PubMed

Caselli, G; Golini, A; Capocaccia, R

1989-01-01

"Having verified, in the 1971 [Italian] census, the presence of certain anomalous data for cohorts born in 1900, 1911, 1920, 1924, 1930, 1936, 1940, 1948, 1950 and 1960, we assessed the size of the error and estimated the new population total which emerged both by age and year of birth. The method used [is similar] to more classical methods to correct biases in age structure in previous censuses and in those countries where the data available are somewhat lacking. The adjusted values, referring to Italy as a whole, are contained in the text...." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE) excerpt

Terpenoid variations within and among half-sibling avocado trees, Persea americana Mill. (Lauraceae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Variation of plant chemical phenotypes in a population can be explained by a combination of genetic, developmental and environmental factors. The age structure, environmental heterogeneity, and the limits in gene flow in a natural population will determine the variability and the spatial structure o...

Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1) 2009.

PubMed

Nishiura, Hiroshi; Chowell, Gerardo; Safan, Muntaser; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

2010-01-07

In many parts of the world, the exponential growth rate of infections during the initial epidemic phase has been used to make statistical inferences on the reproduction number, R, a summary measure of the transmission potential for the novel influenza A (H1N1) 2009. The growth rate at the initial stage of the epidemic in Japan led to estimates for R in the range 2.0 to 2.6, capturing the intensity of the initial outbreak among school-age children in May 2009. An updated estimate of R that takes into account the epidemic data from 29 May to 14 July is provided. An age-structured renewal process is employed to capture the age-dependent transmission dynamics, jointly estimating the reproduction number, the age-dependent susceptibility and the relative contribution of imported cases to secondary transmission. Pitfalls in estimating epidemic growth rates are identified and used for scrutinizing and re-assessing the results of our earlier estimate of R. Maximum likelihood estimates of R using the data from 29 May to 14 July ranged from 1.21 to 1.35. The next-generation matrix, based on our age-structured model, predicts that only 17.5% of the population will experience infection by the end of the first pandemic wave. Our earlier estimate of R did not fully capture the population-wide epidemic in quantifying the next-generation matrix from the estimated growth rate during the initial stage of the pandemic in Japan. In order to quantify R from the growth rate of cases, it is essential that the selected model captures the underlying transmission dynamics embedded in the data. Exploring additional epidemiological information will be useful for assessing the temporal dynamics. Although the simple concept of R is more easily grasped by the general public than that of the next-generation matrix, the matrix incorporating detailed information (e.g., age-specificity) is essential for reducing the levels of uncertainty in predictions and for assisting public health policymaking. Model-based prediction and policymaking are best described by sharing fundamental notions of heterogeneous risks of infection and death with non-experts to avoid potential confusion and/or possible misuse of modelling results.

Predation by Northern Pikeminnow and tiger muskellunge on juvenile salmonids in a high–head reservoir: Implications for anadromous fish reintroductions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sorel, Mark H.; Hansen, Adam G.; Connelly, Kristin A.; Wilson, Andrew C.; Lowery, Erin D.; Beauchamp, David A.

2016-01-01

The feasibility of reintroducing anadromous salmonids into reservoirs above high-head dams is affected by the suitability of the reservoir habitat for rearing and the interactions of the resident fish with introduced fish. We evaluated the predation risk to anadromous salmonids considered for reintroduction in Merwin Reservoir on the North Fork Lewis River in Washington State for two reservoir use-scenarios: year-round rearing and smolt migration. We characterized the role of the primary predators, Northern Pikeminnow Ptychocheilus oregonensis and tiger muskellunge (Northern Pike Esox lucius × Muskellunge E. masquinongy), by using stable isotopes and stomach content analysis, quantified seasonal, per capita predation using bioenergetics modeling, and evaluated the size and age structures of the populations. We then combined these inputs to estimate predation rates of size-structured population units. Northern Pikeminnow of FL ≥ 300 mm were highly cannibalistic and exhibited modest, seasonal, per capita predation on salmonids, but they were disproportionately much less abundant than smaller, less piscivorous, conspecifics. The annual predation on kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka (in biomass) by a size-structured unit of 1,000 Northern Pikeminnow having a FL ≥ 300 mm was analogous to 16,000–40,000 age-0 spring Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha rearing year-round, or 400–1,000 age-1 smolts migrating April–June. The per capita consumption of salmonids by Northern Pikeminnow having a FL ≥ 200 mm was relatively low, due in large part to spatial segregation during the summer and the skewed size distribution of the predator population. Tiger muskellunge fed heavily on Northern Pikeminnow, other nonsalmonids, and minimally on salmonids. In addition to cannibalism within the Northern Pikeminnow population, predation by tiger muskellunge likely contributed to the low recruitment of larger (more piscivorous) Northern Pikeminnow, thereby decreasing the risk of predation to salmonids. This study highlights the importance of evaluating trophic interactions within reservoirs slated for reintroduction with anadromous salmonids, as they can be functional migration corridors and may offer profitable juvenile-rearing habitats despite hosting abundant predator populations.

Value-added strategy models to provide quality services in senior health business.

PubMed

Yang, Ya-Ting; Lin, Neng-Pai; Su, Shyi; Chen, Ya-Mei; Chang, Yao-Mao; Handa, Yujiro; Khan, Hafsah Arshed Ali; Elsa Hsu, Yi-Hsin

2017-06-20

The rapid population aging is now a global issue. The increase in the elderly population will impact the health care industry and health enterprises; various senior needs will promote the growth of the senior health industry. Most senior health studies are focused on the demand side and scarcely on supply. Our study selected quality enterprises focused on aging health and analyzed different strategies to provide excellent quality services to senior health enterprises. We selected 33 quality senior health enterprises in Taiwan and investigated their excellent quality services strategies by face-to-face semi-structured in-depth interviews with CEO and managers of each enterprise in 2013. A total of 33 senior health enterprises in Taiwan. Overall, 65 CEOs and managers of 33 enterprises were interviewed individually. None. Core values and vision, organization structure, quality services provided, strategies for quality services. This study's results indicated four type of value-added strategy models adopted by senior enterprises to offer quality services: (i) residential care and co-residence model, (ii) home care and living in place model, (iii) community e-business experience model and (iv) virtual and physical portable device model. The common part in these four strategy models is that the services provided are elderly centered. These models offer virtual and physical integrations, and also offer total solutions for the elderly and their caregivers. Through investigation of successful strategy models for providing quality services to seniors, we identified opportunities to develop innovative service models and successful characteristics, also policy implications were summarized. The observations from this study will serve as a primary evidenced base for enterprises developing their senior market and, also for promoting the value co-creation possibility through dialogue between customers and those that deliver service. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Children in an aging society.

PubMed

Uhlenberg, Peter

2009-06-01

This article explores ways in which population aging in the United States between 2010 and 2030 might impact the well-being of children, with a distinction made between advantaged and disadvantaged children. A variety of economic and demographic statistics are used to describe the changing age structure of the population and changing public spending on older people and children. Data from the 1985 General Social Survey and Wave 2 of the National Survey of Families and Households are also used to examine connections between older people and children. In recent decades, there has been a graying of the federal budget, and programs for children have received a declining proportion of domestic spending. These trends will be exaggerated between 2010 and 2030 unless structural changes occur. Grandparents may provide increasing resources for their grandchildren. Age segregation results in relatively few older people being directly involved with children not related to them by kinship. The implications of population aging for children are relevant primarily for disadvantaged children. Disadvantaged children have grandparents with fewest resources and are most in need of public spending. As costs of supporting the older population increase, intentional social changes will be needed to prevent growing inequality among children.

Understanding Differences in the Body Burden–Age Relationships of Bioaccumulating Contaminants Based on Population Cross Sections versus Individuals

PubMed Central

Quinn, Cristina L.

2012-01-01

Background: Body burdens of persistent bioaccumulative contaminants estimated from the cross-sectional biomonitoring of human populations are often plotted against age. Such relationships have previously been assumed to reflect the role of age in bioaccumulation. Objectives: We used a mechanistic modeling approach to reproduce concentration-versus-age relationships and investigate factors that influence them. Method: CoZMoMAN is an environmental fate and human food chain bioaccumulation model that estimates time trends in human body burdens in response to time-variant environmental emissions. Trends of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congener 153 concentrations versus age for population cross sections were estimated using simulated longitudinal data for individual women born at different times. The model was also used to probe the influence of partitioning and degradation properties, length of emissions, and model assumptions regarding lipid content and liver metabolism on concentration–age trends of bioaccumulative and persistent contaminants. Results: Body burden–age relationships for population cross sections and individuals over time are not equivalent. The time lapse between the peak in emissions and sample collection for biomonitoring is the most influential factor controlling the shape of concentration–age trends for chemicals with human metabolic half-lives longer than 1 year. Differences in observed concentration–age trends for PCBs and polybrominated diphenyl ethers are consistent with differences in emission time trends and human metabolic half-lives. Conclusions: Bioaccumulation does not monotonically increase with age. Our model suggests that the main predictors of cross-sectional body burden trends with age are the amount of time elapsed after peak emissions and the human metabolic and environmental degradation rates. PMID:22472302

Trends and predicted trends in presentations of older people to Australian emergency departments: effects of demand growth, population aging and climate change.

PubMed

Burkett, Ellen; Martin-Khan, Melinda G; Scott, Justin; Samanta, Mayukh; Gray, Leonard C

2017-07-01

Objectives The aim of the present study was to describe trends in and age and gender distributions of presentations of older people to Australian emergency departments (EDs) from July 2006 to June 2011, and to develop ED utilisation projections to 2050. Methods A retrospective analysis of data collected in the National Non-admitted Patient Emergency Department Care Database was undertaken to assess trends in ED presentations. Three standard Australian Bureau of Statistics population growth models, with and without adjustment for current trends in ED presentation growth and effects of climate change, were examined with projections of ED presentations across three age groups (0-64, 65-84 and ≥85 years) to 2050. Results From 2006-07 to 2010-11, ED presentations increased by 12.63%, whereas the Australian population over this time increased by only 7.26%. Rates of presentation per head of population were greatest among those aged ≥85 years. Projections of ED presentations to 2050 revealed that overall ED presentations are forecast to increase markedly, with the rate of increase being most marked for older people. Conclusion Growth in Australian ED presentations from 2006-07 to 2010-11 was greater than that expected from population growth alone. The predicted changes in demand for ED care will only be able to be optimally managed if Australian health policy, ED funding instruments and ED models of care are adjusted to take into account the specific care and resource needs of older people. What is known about the topic? Rapid population aging is anticipated over coming decades. International studies and specific local-level Australian studies have demonstrated significant growth in ED presentations. There have been no prior national-level Australian studies of ED presentation trends by age group. What does this paper add? The present study examined national ED presentation trends from July 2006 to June 2011, with specific emphasis on trends in presentation by age group. ED presentation growth was found to exceed population growth in all age groups. The rate of ED presentations per head of population was highest among those aged ≥85 years. ED utilisation projections to 2050, using standard Australian Bureau of Statistics population modelling, with and without adjustment for current ED growth, were developed. The projections demonstrated linear growth in ED presentation for those aged 0-84 years, with growth in ED presentations of the ≥85 year age group demonstrating marked acceleration after 2030. What are the implications for practitioners? Growth in ED presentations exceeding population growth suggests that current models of acute health care delivery require review to ensure that optimal care is delivered in the most fiscally efficient manner. Trends in presentation of older people emphasise the imperative for ED workforce planning and education in care of this complex patient cohort, and the requirement to review funding models to incentivise investment in ED avoidance and substitutive care models targeting older people.

An age-structured model for the coupled dynamics of HIV and HSV-2.

PubMed

Kapitanov, Georgi; Alvey, Christina; Vogt-Geisse, Katia; Feng, Zhilan

2015-08-01

Evidence suggests a strong correlation between the prevalence of HSV-2 (genital herpes) and the perseverance of the HIV epidemic. HSV-2 is an incurable viral infection, characterized by periodic reactivation. We construct a model of the co-infection dynamics between the two diseases by incorporating a time-since-infection variable to track the alternating periods of infectiousness of HSV-2. The model considers only heterosexual relationships and distinguishes three population groups: males, general population females, and female sex workers. We calculate the basic reproduction numbers for each disease that provide threshold conditions, which determine whether a disease dies out or becomes endemic in the absence of the other disease. We also derive the invasion reproduction numbers that determine whether or not a disease can invade into a population in which the other disease is endemic. The calculations of the invasion reproduction numbers suggest a new aspect in their interpretation - the class from which the initial disease carrier arises is important for understanding the invasion dynamics and biological interpretation of the expressions of the reproduction numbers. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the role of model parameters in influencing the model outcomes. The results are discussed in the last section.

Temperament Factor Structure in Fragile X Syndrome: The Children's Behavior Questionnaire

PubMed Central

Roberts, Jane E.; Tonnsen, Bridgette L.; Robinson, Marissa; McQuillin, Samuel D.; Hatton, Deborah D.

2014-01-01

Early patterns of temperament lay the foundation for a variety of developmental constructs such as self-regulation, psychopathology, and resilience. Children with fragile X syndrome (FXS) display unique patterns of temperament compared to age-matched clinical and non-clinical samples, and early patterns of temperament have been associated with later anxiety in this population. Despite these unique patterns in FXS and recent reports of atypical factor structure of temperament questionnaires in Williams Syndrome (Leyfer, John, Woodruff-Borden, & Mervis, 2012), no studies have examined the latent factor structure of temperament scales in FXS to ensure measurement validity in this sample. The present study used confirmatory factor analysis to examine the factor structure of a well-validated parent-reported temperament questionnaire, the Children's Behavior Questionnaire (Rothbart, Ahadi, Hershey, & Fisher, 2001), in a sample of 90 males with FXS ages 3-9 years. Our data produced a similar, but not identical, three-factor model that retained the original CBQ factors of negative affectivity, effortful control, and extraversion/surgency. In particular, our FXS sample demonstrated stronger factor loadings for fear and shyness than previously reported loadings in non-clinical samples, consistent with reports of poor social approach and elevated anxiety in this population. Although the original factor structure of the Children's Behavior Questionnaire is largely retained in children with FXS, differences in factor loading magnitudes may reflect phenotypic characteristics of the syndrome. These findings may inform future developmental and translational research efforts. PMID:24380785

Optimal H1N1 vaccination strategies based on self-interest versus group interest.

PubMed

Shim, Eunha; Meyers, Lauren Ancel; Galvani, Alison P

2011-02-25

Influenza vaccination is vital for reducing H1N1 infection-mediated morbidity and mortality. To reduce transmission and achieve herd immunity during the initial 2009-2010 pandemic season, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that initial priority for H1N1 vaccines be given to individuals under age 25, as these individuals are more likely to spread influenza than older adults. However, due to significant delay in vaccine delivery for the H1N1 influenza pandemic, a large fraction of population was exposed to the H1N1 virus and thereby obtained immunity prior to the wide availability of vaccines. This exposure affects the spread of the disease and needs to be considered when prioritizing vaccine distribution. To determine optimal H1N1 vaccine distributions based on individual self-interest versus population interest, we constructed a game theoretical age-structured model of influenza transmission and considered the impact of delayed vaccination. Our results indicate that if individuals decide to vaccinate according to self-interest, the resulting optimal vaccination strategy would prioritize adults of age 25 to 49 followed by either preschool-age children before the pandemic peak or older adults (age 50-64) at the pandemic peak. In contrast, the vaccine allocation strategy that is optimal for the population as a whole would prioritize individuals of ages 5 to 64 to curb a growing pandemic regardless of the timing of the vaccination program. Our results indicate that for a delayed vaccine distribution, the priorities that are optimal at a population level do not align with those that are optimal according to individual self-interest. Moreover, the discordance between the optimal vaccine distributions based on individual self-interest and those based on population interest is even more pronounced when vaccine availability is delayed. To determine optimal vaccine allocation for pandemic influenza, public health agencies need to consider both the changes in infection risks among age groups and expected patterns of adherence.

Informing the Structure of Executive Function in Children: A Meta-Analysis of Functional Neuroimaging Data

PubMed Central

McKenna, Róisín; Rushe, T.; Woodcock, Kate A.

2017-01-01

The structure of executive function (EF) has been the focus of much debate for decades. What is more, the complexity and diversity provided by the developmental period only adds to this contention. The development of executive function plays an integral part in the expression of children's behavioral, cognitive, social, and emotional capabilities. Understanding how these processes are constructed during development allows for effective measurement of EF in this population. This meta-analysis aims to contribute to a better understanding of the structure of executive function in children. A coordinate-based meta-analysis was conducted (using BrainMap GingerALE 2.3), which incorporated studies administering functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during inhibition, switching, and working memory updating tasks in typical children (aged 6–18 years). The neural activation common across all executive tasks was compared to that shared by tasks pertaining only to inhibition, switching or updating, which are commonly considered to be fundamental executive processes. Results support the existence of partially separable but partially overlapping inhibition, switching, and updating executive processes at a neural level, in children over 6 years. Further, the shared neural activation across all tasks (associated with a proposed “unitary” component of executive function) overlapped to different degrees with the activation associated with each individual executive process. These findings provide evidence to support the suggestion that one of the most influential structural models of executive functioning in adults can also be applied to children of this age. However, the findings also call for careful consideration and measurement of both specific executive processes, and unitary executive function in this population. Furthermore, a need is highlighted for a new systematic developmental model, which captures the integrative nature of executive function in children. PMID:28439231

Family history and risk of breast cancer: an analysis accounting for family structure.

PubMed

Brewer, Hannah R; Jones, Michael E; Schoemaker, Minouk J; Ashworth, Alan; Swerdlow, Anthony J

2017-08-01

Family history is an important risk factor for breast cancer incidence, but the parameters conventionally used to categorize it are based solely on numbers and/or ages of breast cancer cases in the family and take no account of the size and age-structure of the woman's family. Using data from the Generations Study, a cohort of over 113,000 women from the general UK population, we analyzed breast cancer risk in relation to first-degree family history using a family history score (FHS) that takes account of the expected number of family cases based on the family's age-structure and national cancer incidence rates. Breast cancer risk increased significantly (P trend  < 0.0001) with greater FHS. There was a 3.5-fold (95% CI 2.56-4.79) range of risk between the lowest and highest FHS groups, whereas women who had two or more relatives with breast cancer, the strongest conventional familial risk factor, had a 2.5-fold (95% CI 1.83-3.47) increase in risk. Using likelihood ratio tests, the best model for determining breast cancer risk due to family history was that combining FHS and age of relative at diagnosis. A family history score based on expected as well as observed breast cancers in a family can give greater risk discrimination on breast cancer incidence than conventional parameters based solely on cases in affected relatives. Our modeling suggests that a yet stronger predictor of risk might be a combination of this score and age at diagnosis in relatives.

Characterising the latent structure and organisation of self-reported thoughts, feelings and behaviours in adolescents and young adults

PubMed Central

Neufeld, Sharon; Jones, Peter B.; Fonagy, Peter; Bullmore, Edward T.; Dolan, Raymond J.; Moutoussis, Michael; Toseeb, Umar; Goodyer, Ian M.

2017-01-01

Little is known about the underlying relationships between self-reported mental health items measuring both positive and negative emotional and behavioural symptoms at the population level in young people. Improved measurement of the full range of mental well-being and mental illness may aid in understanding the aetiological substrates underlying the development of both mental wellness as well as specific psychiatric diagnoses. A general population sample aged 14 to 24 years completed self-report questionnaires on anxiety, depression, psychotic-like symptoms, obsessionality and well-being. Exploratory and confirmatory factor models for categorical data and latent profile analyses were used to evaluate the structure of both mental wellness and illness items. First order, second order and bifactor structures were evaluated on 118 self-reported items obtained from 2228 participants. A bifactor solution was the best fitting latent variable model with one general latent factor termed ‘distress’ and five ‘distress independent’ specific factors defined as self-confidence, antisocial behaviour, worry, aberrant thinking, and mood. Next, six distinct subgroups were derived from a person-centred latent profile analysis of the factor scores. Finally, concurrent validity was assessed using information on hazardous behaviours (alcohol use, substance misuse, self-harm) and treatment for mental ill health: both discriminated between the latent traits and latent profile subgroups. The findings suggest a complex, multidimensional mental health structure in the youth population rather than the previously assumed first or second order factor structure. Additionally, the analysis revealed a low hazardous behaviour/low mental illness risk subgroup not previously described. Population sub-groups show greater validity over single variable factors in revealing mental illness risks. In conclusion, our findings indicate that the structure of self reported mental health is multidimensional in nature and uniquely finds improved prediction to mental illness risk within person-centred subgroups derived from the multidimensional latent traits. PMID:28403164

Characterising the latent structure and organisation of self-reported thoughts, feelings and behaviours in adolescents and young adults.

PubMed

St Clair, Michelle C; Neufeld, Sharon; Jones, Peter B; Fonagy, Peter; Bullmore, Edward T; Dolan, Raymond J; Moutoussis, Michael; Toseeb, Umar; Goodyer, Ian M

2017-01-01

Little is known about the underlying relationships between self-reported mental health items measuring both positive and negative emotional and behavioural symptoms at the population level in young people. Improved measurement of the full range of mental well-being and mental illness may aid in understanding the aetiological substrates underlying the development of both mental wellness as well as specific psychiatric diagnoses. A general population sample aged 14 to 24 years completed self-report questionnaires on anxiety, depression, psychotic-like symptoms, obsessionality and well-being. Exploratory and confirmatory factor models for categorical data and latent profile analyses were used to evaluate the structure of both mental wellness and illness items. First order, second order and bifactor structures were evaluated on 118 self-reported items obtained from 2228 participants. A bifactor solution was the best fitting latent variable model with one general latent factor termed 'distress' and five 'distress independent' specific factors defined as self-confidence, antisocial behaviour, worry, aberrant thinking, and mood. Next, six distinct subgroups were derived from a person-centred latent profile analysis of the factor scores. Finally, concurrent validity was assessed using information on hazardous behaviours (alcohol use, substance misuse, self-harm) and treatment for mental ill health: both discriminated between the latent traits and latent profile subgroups. The findings suggest a complex, multidimensional mental health structure in the youth population rather than the previously assumed first or second order factor structure. Additionally, the analysis revealed a low hazardous behaviour/low mental illness risk subgroup not previously described. Population sub-groups show greater validity over single variable factors in revealing mental illness risks. In conclusion, our findings indicate that the structure of self reported mental health is multidimensional in nature and uniquely finds improved prediction to mental illness risk within person-centred subgroups derived from the multidimensional latent traits.

A feature-based developmental model of the infant brain in structural MRI.

PubMed

Toews, Matthew; Wells, William M; Zöllei, Lilla

2012-01-01

In this paper, anatomical development is modeled as a collection of distinctive image patterns localized in space and time. A Bayesian posterior probability is defined over a random variable of subject age, conditioned on data in the form of scale-invariant image features. The model is automatically learned from a large set of images exhibiting significant variation, used to discover anatomical structure related to age and development, and fit to new images to predict age. The model is applied to a set of 230 infant structural MRIs of 92 subjects acquired at multiple sites over an age range of 8-590 days. Experiments demonstrate that the model can be used to identify age-related anatomical structure, and to predict the age of new subjects with an average error of 72 days.

Modeling the impacts of two age-related portfolio effects on recruitment variability with and without a marine reserve.

PubMed

McGilliard, Carey R; Punt, André E; Hilborn, Ray; Essington, Tim

2017-10-01

Many rockfish species are long-lived and thought to be susceptible to being overfished. Hypotheses about the importance of older female rockfish to population persistence have led to arguments that marine reserves are needed to ensure the sustainability of rockfish populations. However, the implications of these hypotheses for rockfish population dynamics are still unclear. We modeled two mechanisms by which reducing the proportion of older fish in a population has been hypothesized to influence sustainability, and explored whether these mechanisms influenced mean population dynamics and recruitment variability. We explored whether populations with these mechanisms could be managed more sustainably with a marine reserve in addition to a constant fishing mortality rate (F) than with a constant F alone. Both hypotheses can be seen as portfolio effects whereby risk of recruitment failure is spread over a "portfolio" of maternal ages. First, we modeled a spawning window effect whereby mothers of different ages spawned in different times or locations (windows) with local environmental conditions. Second, we modeled an offspring size effect whereby older mothers produced larger offspring than younger mothers, where length of a starvation period over which offspring could survive increased with maternal age. Recruitment variability resulting from both models was 55-65% lower than for models without maternal age-related portfolio effects in the absence of fishing and increased with increases in Fs for both models. An offspring size effect caused lower output reproductive rates such that the specified reproductive rate input as a model parameter was no longer the realized rate measured as the reproductive rate observed in model results; this quirk is not addressed in previous analyses of offspring size effects. We conducted a standardization such that offspring size effect and control models had the same observed reproductive rates. A comparison of long-term catch, the probability of falling below a biomass threshold, and recruitment variability over a range of exploitation rates for models with an age-related portfolio effect showed no benefit of a marine reserve implemented in addition to a constant F (as compared to a constant F alone) for populations with sedentary adults and sedentary or mobile larvae. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Human Papillomavirus Vaccination at a Time of Changing Sexual Behavior

PubMed Central

Lazzarato, Fulvio; Brisson, Marc; Franceschi, Silvia

2016-01-01

Human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence varies widely worldwide. We used a transmission model to show links between age-specific sexual patterns and HPV vaccination effectiveness. We considered rural India and the United States as examples of 2 heterosexual populations with traditional age-specific sexual behavior and gender-similar age-specific sexual behavior, respectively. We simulated these populations by using age-specific rates of sexual activity and age differences between sexual partners and found that transitions from traditional to gender-similar sexual behavior in women <35 years of age can result in increased (2.6-fold in our study) HPV16 prevalence. Our model shows that reductions in HPV16 prevalence are larger if vaccination occurs in populations before transitions in sexual behavior and that increased risk for HPV infection attributable to transition is preventable by early vaccination. Our study highlights the importance of using time-limited opportunities to introduce HPV vaccination in traditional populations before changes in age-specific sexual patterns occur. PMID:26691673

Human Papillomavirus Vaccination at a Time of Changing Sexual Behavior.

PubMed

Baussano, Iacopo; Lazzarato, Fulvio; Brisson, Marc; Franceschi, Silvia

2016-01-01

Human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence varies widely worldwide. We used a transmission model to show links between age-specific sexual patterns and HPV vaccination effectiveness. We considered rural India and the United States as examples of 2 heterosexual populations with traditional age-specific sexual behavior and gender-similar age-specific sexual behavior, respectively. We simulated these populations by using age-specific rates of sexual activity and age differences between sexual partners and found that transitions from traditional to gender-similar sexual behavior in women <35 years of age can result in increased (2.6-fold in our study) HPV16 prevalence. Our model shows that reductions in HPV16 prevalence are larger if vaccination occurs in populations before transitions in sexual behavior and that increased risk for HPV infection attributable to transition is preventable by early vaccination. Our study highlights the importance of using time-limited opportunities to introduce HPV vaccination in traditional populations before changes in age-specific sexual patterns occur.

The development of a population of 4D pediatric XCAT phantoms for CT imaging research and optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norris, Hannah; Zhang, Yakun; Frush, Jack; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Minhas, Anum; Tward, Daniel J.; Ratnanather, J. Tilak; Miller, M. I.; Frush, Donald; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul

2014-03-01

With the increased use of CT examinations, the associated radiation dose has become a large concern, especially for pediatrics. Much research has focused on reducing radiation dose through new scanning and reconstruction methods. Computational phantoms provide an effective and efficient means for evaluating image quality, patient-specific dose, and organ-specific dose in CT. We previously developed a set of highly-detailed 4D reference pediatric XCAT phantoms at ages of newborn, 1, 5, 10, and 15 years with organ and tissues masses matched to ICRP Publication 89 values. We now extend this reference set to a series of 64 pediatric phantoms of a variety of ages and height and weight percentiles, representative of the public at large. High resolution PET-CT data was reviewed by a practicing experienced radiologist for anatomic regularity and was then segmented with manual and semi-automatic methods to form a target model. A Multi-Channel Large Deformation Diffeomorphic Metric Mapping (MC-LDDMM) algorithm was used to calculate the transform from the best age matching pediatric reference phantom to the patient target. The transform was used to complete the target, filling in the non-segmented structures and defining models for the cardiac and respiratory motions. The complete phantoms, consisting of thousands of structures, were then manually inspected for anatomical accuracy. 3D CT data was simulated from the phantoms to demonstrate their ability to generate realistic, patient quality imaging data. The population of pediatric phantoms developed in this work provides a vital tool to investigate dose reduction techniques in 3D and 4D pediatric CT.

The Occupy Central (Umbrella) movement and mental health distress in the Hong Kong general public: political movements and concerns as potential structural risk factors of population mental health.

PubMed

Lau, Joseph T F; Kim, Yoona; Wu, Anise M S; Wang, Zixin; Huang, Bishan; Mo, Phoenix K H

2017-05-01

Political tension, as expressed by mass movements such as the Occupy Central movement (2014) in Hong Kong, is a potential but understudied structural factor of population mental health. A random population-based telephone survey anonymously interviewed 344 Hong Kong Chinese adults aged 18-65 years during the 2 weeks since the termination date of the 2-month-long Occupy Central movement (15/12/2014). Linear regression models were fit using mental distress (depression, anxiety and negative mood) and self-perceived changes in mood/sleeping quality as dependent variables. Prevalence of participation in the movement was 10.5% (self), 17.7% (family members/relatives), and 34.0% (peers); 8.5% had participated for ≥2 days. Young age, but not participation, was associated with mental distress. In adjusted analysis, three types of responses to the movement (worry about safety, negative emotional responses to media reports, and conflicts with peers about the movement) and emotional responses to local political situations were significantly associated with all/some of the dependent variables related to mental distress. The variable on emotions toward local political situations was correlated with the three responses to the movement; it fully mediated the associations between such responses and mental distress. Many citizens participated in the movement, which was led by youths and might have increased the general public's mental distress. Negative personal responses to the movement and emotions toward political situations were potential risk factors. As the political tension would last and political pessimism is globally found, politics may have become a regular and persistent structural risk factor negatively affecting population mental health.

User profiles and personas in the design and development of consumer health technologies.

PubMed

LeRouge, Cynthia; Ma, Jiao; Sneha, Sweta; Tolle, Kristin

2013-11-01

"The graying of the globe" has resulted in exponential rise in health care expenses, over-worked health care professionals and a growing patient base suffering from multiple chronic diseases, one of which is diabetes. Consumer health technologies (CHT) are considered important catalysts for empowering health care consumers to take a proactive role in managing their health and related costs. Adoption rate and usability of such devices among the aging is far from being satisfactory. Past studies noted the motivation for adoption by the aging is dependent on the suitability/relevance, perceived usability and anticipated benefits associated with usage of technological innovation. Traditional information technology (IT) development adopts a systematic approach without necessarily using a specific user model that personalizes the system to the aging user groups. The aging patient population has unique needs arising from progressive deterioration in both physiological and psychological abilities. These needs are often ignored in the design, development, trial and adoption of consumer health products resulting in low adoption and usage. The main objective of this research is to investigate the user-centered design (UCD), specifically user profiles and personas, as methodological tools to inform the design and development of CHT devices for an aging population. The adoption of user profile and persona has not received much attention in health care informatics research and, in particular, research involving CHT. Our work begins to fill this void in three ways. We (1) illuminate the process of developing CHT user profiles and personas for a Chinese elder population with a demanding health care needs, i.e., self-management of chronic diabetes, with the hope that the resulting profiles and personas may be used as foundational material for informing the design, development and evaluation of CHT in other similar contexts; (2) call attention to how to further enhance and complement traditional user profile and persona techniques for CHT design by integrating cognitive structures and present behavior that drive health care thinking, future behavior and demand; (3) show how the profiles and personas can be used to inform requirements, design and implementation decisions for a technology aimed at facilitating CHT adoption and diffusion for the elderly. To exemplify process and application, we use an action-research methodology, where user profiles and personas of an aging patient population were developed. The resultant profiles and personas were leveraged to improve the design, development and implementation plans of a smart phone application to assist chronically ill aging Chinese diabetic population capable of disease self-management. The results from the study show that user profile and persona can be a valuable methodological approach in capturing the conceptual model of the aging and informing the design and development decisions of CHT. The demonstration of techniques used in this study can serve as a guideline to CHT developers in bringing conceptual user modeling into the design of software interfaces targeted for users with specific health care needs. Specifically, the study provides guidance on the creation and use of profiles and personas to tap into the conceptual models of the targeted elderly population reflecting their preferences, capabilities and attitudes towards using technology in self-management care in general and the smart phone diabetes management application in particular. Insight into the mental model of the aging group has been shown to inform later stages of UCD development (e.g., the creation of prototypes and usability testing) as well as implementation and adoption strategies. The World Health Organization (WHO) predicts that by 2025, 80% of all new cases of diabetes are expected to appear in the developing countries. In fact, the number of diabetic patients in China is estimated to rise to 42.3 million in 2030 from 20.8 million in 2000. Thus, we investigate the Chinese aging population in order to demonstrate the process of developing and using user profile and persona. We hope that the resultant conceptual model of the Chinese aging diabetic population can be used in future research to guide CHT designers interested in designing health care devices for this vulnerable user group. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing Breast Cancer Risk Estimates Based on the Gail Model and Its Predictors in Qatari Women.

PubMed

Bener, Abdulbari; Çatan, Funda; El Ayoubi, Hanadi R; Acar, Ahmet; Ibrahim, Wanis H

2017-07-01

The Gail model is the most widely used breast cancer risk assessment tool. An accurate assessment of individual's breast cancer risk is very important for prevention of the disease and for the health care providers to make decision on taking chemoprevention for high-risk women in clinical practice in Qatar. To assess the breast cancer risk among Arab women population in Qatar using the Gail model and provide a global comparison of risk assessment. In this cross-sectional study of 1488 women (aged 35 years and older), we used the Gail Risk Assessment Tool to assess the risk of developing breast cancer. Sociodemographic features such as age, lifestyle habits, body mass index, breast-feeding duration, consanguinity among parents, and family history of breast cancer were considered as possible risks. The mean age of the study population was 47.8 ± 10.8 years. Qatari women and Arab women constituted 64.7% and 35.3% of the study population, respectively. The mean 5-year and lifetime breast cancer risks were 1.12 ± 0.52 and 10.57 ± 3.1, respectively. Consanguineous marriage among parents was seen in 30.6% of participants. We found a relationship between the 5-year and lifetime risks of breast cancer and variables such as age, age at menarche, gravidity, parity, body mass index, family history of cancer, menopause age, occupation, and level of education. The linear regression analysis identified the predictors for breast cancer in women such as age, age at menarche, age of first birth, family history and age of menopausal were considered the strong predictors and significant contributing risk factors for breast cancer after adjusting for ethnicity, parity and other variables. The current study is the first to evaluate the performance of the Gail model for Arab women population in the Gulf Cooperation Council. Gail model is an appropriate breast cancer risk assessment tool for female population in Qatar.

Mental health literacy as a mediator in use of mental health services among older korean adults.

PubMed

Kim, Young Sun; Rhee, T Greg; Lee, Hee Yun; Park, Byung Hyun; Sharratt, Monica L

2017-02-01

Existing literature suggests that mental health literacy is positively associated with mental health services utilization. Despite an aging population that faces significant mental health concerns in Korea, the role of mental health literacy on mental health services utilization is not known among older adults in Korea. This study aimed to (1) identify whether mental health literacy mediates the association between population characteristics and mental health services utilization and (2) identify an optimal path model for mental health services utilization among Korean older adults. Using a cross-sectional survey with a quota sampling strategy, we collected and analyzed responses from 596 community-dwelling individuals ages 65 years and older. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to estimate the effect of mental health literacy as a mediator. When controlling for other relevant covariates in the optimal path model, mental health literacy mediated the relationships between three socio-demographic factors (education, general literacy, and health status) and mental health services utilization. The model fit index shows that the SEM fits very well (CFI = 0.92, NFI = 0.90, RMSEA = 0.07). Efforts to improve mental health literacy through community-based education programs may need to particularly target Korean older adults with the relevant socio-demographic characteristics to enhance their utilization of appropriate mental health services.

Differential item functioning of the Geriatric Depression Scale in an Asian population.

PubMed

Broekman, B F P; Nyunt, S Z; Niti, M; Jin, A Z; Ko, S M; Kumar, R; Fones, C S L; Ng, T P

2008-06-01

The Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) is widely used for screening and assessment of major depressive disorder (MDD). Screening scales are often culture-specific and should be evaluated for item response bias (synonymously differential item functioning, DIF) before use in clinical practice and research in a different population. In this study, we examined DIF associated with age, gender, ethnicity and chronic illness in a heterogeneous Asian population in Singapore. The GDS-15 and Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV diagnosis of MDD were independently administered by interviewers on 4253 non-institutionalized community living elderly subjects aged 60 years and above who were users of social service agencies. Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause latent variable modelling was used to identify DIF. We found evidence of significant DIF associated with age, gender, ethnicity and chronic illness for 8 items: dropped many activities and interests, afraid something bad is going to happen, prefer staying home to going out, more problems with memory than most, think it is (not) wonderful to be alive, feel pretty worthless, feel (not) full of energy, feel that situation is hopeless. The smaller number of minority Indian and Malay subjects and the self-report of chronic medical illnesses. In a heterogeneous mix of respondents in Singapore, eight items of the GDS-15 showed DIF for age, gender, ethnicity and chronic illness. The awareness and identification of DIF in the GDS-15 provides a rational basis for its use in diverse population groups and guiding the derivation of abbreviated scales.

The Use of Surrogate Data in Demographic Population Viability Analysis: A Case Study of California Sea Lions

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Reliable data necessary to parameterize population models are seldom available for imperiled species. As an alternative, data from populations of the same species or from ecologically similar species have been used to construct models. In this study, we evaluated the use of demographic data collected at one California sea lion colony (Los Islotes) to predict the population dynamics of the same species from two other colonies (San Jorge and Granito) in the Gulf of California, Mexico, for which demographic data are lacking. To do so, we developed a stochastic demographic age-structured matrix model and conducted a population viability analysis for each colony. For the Los Islotes colony we used site-specific pup, juvenile, and adult survival probabilities, as well as birth rates for older females. For the other colonies, we used site-specific pup and juvenile survival probabilities, but used surrogate data from Los Islotes for adult survival probabilities and birth rates. We assessed these models by comparing simulated retrospective population trajectories to observed population trends based on count data. The projected population trajectories approximated the observed trends when surrogate data were used for one colony but failed to match for a second colony. Our results indicate that species-specific and even region-specific surrogate data may lead to erroneous conservation decisions. These results highlight the importance of using population-specific demographic data in assessing extinction risk. When vital rates are not available and immediate management actions must be taken, in particular for imperiled species, we recommend the use of surrogate data only when the populations appear to have similar population trends. PMID:26413746

Retrospect and prospect of China's population.

PubMed

Liu, G

1985-03-01

This discussion of the population of China covers the reproductive pattern and fertility rate, the death pattern and mortality, age-sex structure of the population, population and employment, urbanization, migration, and the aging of the population. During the 1949-83 period, China almost doubled her population with an annual natural growth rate of 19/1000. China's reproductive pattern developed from early childbearing, short birth spacing and many births to later childbearing, longer birth spacing and fewer births. China's total fertility rate (TFR) was 5.8 in 1950 and 2.1 in 1983 with an annual decrease of 3%. The annual national income grew at a rate of 7.1%, while the annual growth rate of population 1.9% from 1950-82. Consequently, the national income per capita increased from 50 yuan in 1950 to 338 yuan in 1982. The major factor responsible for the changes is the remarkable decline in the rural fertility rate. The crude death rate dropped from 27.1/1000 in 1963 to 7.1 in 1983 and the infant mortality rate from 179.4/1000 live births in 1936 to 36.6 in 1981. There was also a significant change in the causes of death. Population aged 0-14 in China account for 33.6%, 15-49 for 51.3%, and 50 and over for 15.1% of the total population. China is in the process of transition from an expansive to a stationary population. The age-dependency ratio declined from 68.6% in 1953 and 79.4% in 1964 to 62.6% in 1982. Sex ratios recorded in the 3 population censuses are 105.99 in 1953, 105.45 in 1964, and 105.46 in 1982. Employment in both collective and individual economies did not expand until 1978. Sectoral, occupational, and industrial structures of population started to change rationally with the adjustment and reform of economic management system in 1978. The strategic stress on the employment of China's economically active population should be shifted from farming to diversified economy and urban industry and commerce, from sectors of industrial-agricultural production to those of non-material production, and from expansion of employment to the rise of employment efficiency. The proportion of urban population in China accounted for 20.8% in 1982 with an annual growth rate of 4% during the 1949-82 period. The 1982 population census reveals that 94.4% of China's population resides on the southeast side of Aihui-Tengchong Line. Compared with the statistics in 1953, there was no notable change of the unbalanced population distribution on each side of the Line over the last 50 years. China is comparatively young in its population age structure. 1982 census data show that there were 49.29 million people at age 65 and over in 1982, representing 4.91% of the whole population. It is estimated from the age composition of 1982 and age-specific mortality rate of 1981 that there will be 88 million elderly persons by 2000, 150 million by 2020, and about 300 million as a maximum around 2040.

Consumptive and nonconsumptive effects of cannibalism in fluctuating age-structured populations.

PubMed

Wissinger, Scott A; Whiteman, Howard H; Denoël, Mathieu; Mumford, Miranda L; Aubee, Catherine B

2010-02-01

Theory and empirical studies suggest that cannibalism in age-structured populations can regulate recruitment depending on the intensity of intraspecific competition between cannibals and victims and the nature of the cannibalism window, i.e., which size classes interact as cannibals and victims. Here we report on a series of experiments that quantify that window for age-structured populations of salamander larvae and paedomorphic adults. We determined body size limits on cannibalism in microcosms and then the consumptive and nonconsumptive (injuries, foraging and activity, diet, growth) effects on victims in mesocosms with seminatural levels of habitat complexity and alternative prey. We found that cannibalism by the largest size classes (paedomorphs and > or = age 3+ yr larvae) occurs mainly on young-of-the-year (YOY) victims. Surviving YOY and other small larvae had increased injuries, reduced activity levels, and reduced growth rates in the presence of cannibals. Data on YOY survival in an experiment in which we manipulated the density of paedomorphs combined with historical data on the number of cannibals in natural populations indicate that dominant cohorts of paedomorphs can cause observed recruitment failures. Dietary data indicate that ontogenetic shifts in diet should preclude strong intraspecific competition between YOY and cannibals in this species. Thus our results are consistent with previous empirical and theoretical work that suggests that recruitment regulation by cannibalism is most likely when YOY are vulnerable to cannibalism but have low dietary overlap with cannibals. Understanding the role of cannibalism in regulating recruitment in salamander populations is timely, given the widespread occurrences of amphibian decline. Previous studies have focused on extrinsic (including anthropogenic) factors that affect amphibian population dynamics, whereas the data presented here combined with long-term field observations suggest the potential for intrinsically driven population cycles.

Larval settlement rate: a leading determinant of structure in an ecological community of the marine intertidal zone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gaines, S.; Roughgarden, J.

Field studies demonstrate that the population structure of the barnacle Balanus glandula differs between locations of high and low larval settlement rate. These observations, together with results from a model for the demography of an open, space-limited population, suggest that the settlement rate may be a more important determinant of rocky intertidal community structure than is presently realized. At the low-settlement location mortality of barnacles is independent of the area occupied by barnacles. At the high-settlement location mortality is cover-dependent due to increased predation by starfish on areas of high barnacle cover. In both locations the cover-independent component of mortalitymore » does not vary with age during the first 60 weeks. Generalizations that the highest species diversity in a rocky intertidal community is found at locations of intermediate disturbance, and that competition causes zonation between species of the barnacle genera Balanus and Chthamalus, seem to apply only to locations with high-settlement rates.« less

Lake whitefish and Diporeia spp. in the Great lakes: an overview

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nalepa, Thomas F.; Mohr, Lloyd C.; Henderson, Bryan A.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Schneeberger, Philip J.

2005-01-01

Because of growing concern in the Great Lakes over declines in abundance and growth of lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) and declines in abundance of the benthic amphipod Diporeia spp., a workshop was held to examine past and current trends, to explore trophic links, and to discuss the latest research results and needs. The workshop was divided into sessions on the status of populations in each of the lakes, bioenergetics and trophic dynamics, and exploitation and management. Abundance, growth, and condition of whitefish populations in Lakes Superior and Erie are stable and within the range of historical means, but these variables are declining in Lakes Michigan and Ontario and parts of Lake Huron. The loss of Diporeia spp., a major food item of whitefish, has been a factor in observed declines, particularly in Lake Ontario, but density-dependent factors also likely played a role in Lakes Michigan and Huron. The loss of Diporeia spp. is temporally linked to the introduction and proliferation of dreissenid mussels, but a direct cause for the negative response of Diporeia spp. has not been established. Given changes in whitefish populations, age-structured models need to be re-evaluated. Other whitefish research needs to include a better understanding of what environmental conditions lead to strong year-classes, improved aging techniques, and better information on individual population (stock) structure. Further collaborations between assessment biologists and researchers studying the lower food web would enhance an understanding of links between trophic levels.

Selective Predation of a Stalking Predator on Ungulate Prey

PubMed Central

Heurich, Marco; Zeis, Klara; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Müller, Jörg; Belotti, Elisa; Bufka, Luděk; Woelfing, Benno

2016-01-01

Prey selection is a key factor shaping animal populations and evolutionary dynamics. An optimal forager should target prey that offers the highest benefits in terms of energy content at the lowest costs. Predators are therefore expected to select for prey of optimal size. Stalking predators do not pursue their prey long, which may lead to a more random choice of prey individuals. Due to difficulties in assessing the composition of available prey populations, data on prey selection of stalking carnivores are still scarce. We show how the stalking predator Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) selects prey individuals based on species identity, age, sex and individual behaviour. To address the difficulties in assessing prey population structure, we confirm inferred selection patterns by using two independent data sets: (1) data of 387 documented kills of radio-collared lynx were compared to the prey population structure retrieved from systematic camera trapping using Manly’s standardized selection ratio alpha and (2) data on 120 radio-collared roe deer were analysed using a Cox proportional hazards model. Among the larger red deer prey, lynx selected against adult males—the largest and potentially most dangerous prey individuals. In roe deer lynx preyed selectively on males and did not select for a specific age class. Activity during high risk periods reduced the risk of falling victim to a lynx attack. Our results suggest that the stalking predator lynx actively selects for size, while prey behaviour induces selection by encounter and stalking success rates. PMID:27548478

Aging and perceived event structure as a function of modality

PubMed Central

Magliano, Joseph; Kopp, Kristopher; McNerney, M. Windy; Radvansky, Gabriel A.; Zacks, Jeffrey M.

2012-01-01

The majority of research on situation model processing in older adults has focused on narrative texts. Much of this research has shown that many important aspects of constructing a situation model for a text are preserved and may even improve with age. However, narratives need not be text-based, and little is known as to whether these findings generalize to visually-based narratives. The present study assessed the impact of story modality on event segmentation, which is a basic component of event comprehension. Older and younger adults viewed picture stories or read text versions of them and segmented them into events. There was comparable alignment between the segmentation judgments and a theoretically guided analysis of shifts in situational features across modalities for both populations. These results suggest that situation models provide older adults with a stable basis for event comprehension across different modalities of expereinces. PMID:22182344

Family structure and breakfast consumption of 11-15 year old boys and girls in Scotland, 1994-2010: a repeated cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The benefits of breakfast during childhood and adolescence have been reported previously though few studies have considered family structure inequalities in breakfast consumption. The proportion of young people living in non-traditional family types has increased in recent years, strengthening the need to describe and monitor the impact of the changing family unit on adolescent breakfast consumption. This study aimed to describe changes in daily breakfast consumption among adolescents in Scotland between 1994 and 2010, while also considering family structure inequalities, and the degree to which these have changed over time. Methods Data from the 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006 and 2010 Scottish Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) surveys were analysed using logistic multilevel regression models for binary outcome variable daily breakfast consumption. Results Daily breakfast consumption among adolescents increased between 1994 and 2010, although there were differences by age and sex. In fact those aged over 14.5 years saw decreases in breakfast consumption, and girls saw significantly larger increases than boys. Daily breakfast consumption was more prevalent among adolescents from 'both parent' families, with lowest prevalence among those from single parent families. Trends in daily breakfast consumption between 1994 and 2010 also varied by family structure. While prevalence of daily breakfast consumption increased among those living with 'both parents', the largest proportion of the population, prevalence decreased over time among adolescents of single parent families, and particularly among those living with their father. Conclusions Family structure inequalities in daily breakfast consumption increased between 1994 and 2010, while breakfast consumption across the population as a whole increased. As the proportion of young people living in an alternative family structure continues to grow it is important to understand why these inequalities have increased and how these may be overcome. Possible reasons for family structure inequalities and their increase in recent years are discussed. PMID:22440153

Population structure in the Arab world and its impact on integration and development trends.

PubMed

El-hallak, M N

1986-12-01

The author examines three issues: "population structure in the Arab world; trends making for integration and unity among the Arab countries; and economic and social development trends." Data from the United Nations for 1985 and from recent censuses are used to discuss population size, growth, and spatial distribution; the labor force; age and sex distribution; and fertility, mortality, and natural increase. Figures are presented separately for 22 Arab countries. Attention is then given to the relationships between population structure and economic and social development and between development and Arab unity and integration. excerpt

Cost-Effectiveness of Orthogeriatric and Fracture Liaison Service Models of Care for Hip Fracture Patients: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Leal, Jose; Gray, Alastair M; Hawley, Samuel; Prieto-Alhambra, Daniel; Delmestri, Antonella; Arden, Nigel K; Cooper, Cyrus; Javaid, M Kassim; Judge, Andrew

2017-02-01

Fracture liaison services are recommended as a model of best practice for organizing patient care and secondary fracture prevention for hip fracture patients, although variation exists in how such services are structured. There is considerable uncertainty as to which model is most cost-effective and should therefore be mandated. This study evaluated the cost- effectiveness of orthogeriatric (OG)- and nurse-led fracture liaison service (FLS) models of post-hip fracture care compared with usual care. Analyses were conducted from a health care and personal social services payer perspective, using a Markov model to estimate the lifetime impact of the models of care. The base-case population consisted of men and women aged 83 years with a hip fracture. The risk and costs of hip and non-hip fractures were derived from large primary and hospital care data sets in the UK. Utilities were informed by a meta-regression of 32 studies. In the base-case analysis, the orthogeriatric-led service was the most effective and cost-effective model of care at a threshold of £30,000 per quality-adjusted life years gained (QALY). For women aged 83 years, the OG-led service was the most cost-effective at £22,709/QALY. If only health care costs are considered, OG-led service was cost-effective at £12,860/QALY and £14,525/QALY for women and men aged 83 years, respectively. Irrespective of how patients were stratified in terms of their age, sex, and Charlson comorbidity score at index hip fracture, our results suggest that introducing an orthogeriatrician-led or a nurse-led FLS is cost-effective when compared with usual care. Although considerable uncertainty remains concerning which of the models of care should be preferred, introducing an orthogeriatrician-led service seems to be the most cost-effective service to pursue. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Enculturation and attitudes toward intimate partner violence and gender roles in an asian Indian population: implications for community-based prevention.

PubMed

Yoshihama, Mieko; Blazevski, Juliane; Bybee, Deborah

2014-06-01

This study examined the relationships among enculturation, attitudes supporting intimate partner violence (IPV-supporting attitudes), and gender role attitudes among one of the largest Asian Indian population groups in the US. Data were collected via computer-assisted telephone interviews with a random sample of Gujarati men and women aged 18-64 in Metropolitan Detroit. Using structural equation modeling, we modeled the effects of three components of enculturation (behavior, values, and community participation) on gender role attitudes and IPV-supporting attitudes among married respondents (N = 373). Analyses also accounted for the effects of respondent age, education, religious service attendance, perceived financial difficulty, and lengths of residence in the US. The second-order, overall construct of enculturation was the strongest predictor of IPV-supporting attitudes (standardized B = 0.61), but not gender role attitudes. Patriarchal gender role attitudes were positively associated with IPV-supporting attitudes (B = 0.49). In addition to the overall effect of the enculturation construct, two of the components of enculturation had specific effects. "Enculturation-values" had a specific positive indirect association with IPV-supporting attitudes, through its relationship with patriarchal gender role attitudes. However, "enculturation-community participation" was negatively associated with IPV-supporting attitudes, suggesting the importance of community-based prevention of IPV among this immigrant population group.

Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

The impact of natural transformation on adaptation in spatially structured bacterial populations.

PubMed

Moradigaravand, Danesh; Engelstädter, Jan

2014-06-20

Recent studies have demonstrated that natural transformation and the formation of highly structured populations in bacteria are interconnected. In spite of growing evidence about this connection, little is known about the dynamics of natural transformation in spatially structured bacterial populations. In this work, we model the interdependency between the dynamics of the bacterial gene pool and those of environmental DNA in space to dissect the effect of transformation on adaptation. Our model reveals that even with only a single locus under consideration, transformation with a free DNA fragment pool results in complex adaptation dynamics that do not emerge in previous models focusing only on the gene shuffling effect of transformation at multiple loci. We demonstrate how spatial restriction on population growth and DNA diffusion in the environment affect the impact of transformation on adaptation. We found that in structured bacterial populations intermediate DNA diffusion rates predominantly cause transformation to impede adaptation by spreading deleterious alleles in the population. Overall, our model highlights distinctive evolutionary consequences of bacterial transformation in spatially restricted compared to planktonic bacterial populations.

Effects of recruitment, growth, and exploitation on walleye population size structure in northern Wisconsin lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.

2014-01-01

We evaluated the dynamics of walleye Sander vitreus population size structure, as indexed by the proportional size distribution (PSD) of quality-length fish, in Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003 and in 204 other lakes in northern Wisconsin during 1990–2011. We estimated PSD from angler-caught walleyes in Escanaba Lake and from spring electrofishing in 204 other lakes, and then related PSD to annual estimates of recruitment to age-3, length at age 3, and annual angling exploitation rate. In Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003, annual estimates of PSD were highly dynamic, growth (positively) explained 35% of PSD variation, recruitment explained only 3% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 7% of PSD variation. In 204 other northern Wisconsin lakes during 1990–2011, PSD varied widely among lakes, recruitment (negatively) explained 29% of PSD variation, growth (positively) explained 21% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 4% of PSD variation. We conclude that population size structure was most strongly driven by recruitment and growth, rather than exploitation, in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Studies of other species over wide spatial and temporal ranges of recruitment, growth, and mortality are needed to determine which dynamic rate most strongly influences population size structure of other species. Our findings indicate a need to be cautious about assuming exploitation is a strong driver of walleye population size structure.

Spatial Self-Organization of Vegetation Subject to Climatic Stress-Insights from a System Dynamics-Individual-Based Hybrid Model.

PubMed

Vincenot, Christian E; Carteni, Fabrizio; Mazzoleni, Stefano; Rietkerk, Max; Giannino, Francesco

2016-01-01

In simulation models of populations or communities, individual plants have often been obfuscated in favor of aggregated vegetation. This simplification comes with a loss of biological detail and a smoothing out of the demographic noise engendered by stochastic individual-scale processes and heterogeneities, which is significant among others when studying the viability of small populations facing challenging fluctuating environmental conditions. This consideration has motivated the development of precise plant-centered models. The accuracy gained in the representation of plant biology has then, however, often been balanced by the disappearance in models of important plant-soil interactions (esp. water dynamics) due to the inability of most individual-based frameworks to simulate complex continuous processes. In this study, we used a hybrid modeling approach, namely integrated System Dynamics (SD)-Individual-based (IB), to illustrate the importance of individual plant dynamics to explain spatial self-organization of vegetation in arid environments. We analyzed the behavior of this model under different parameter sets either related to individual plant properties (such as seed dispersal distance and reproductive age) or the environment (such as intensity and yearly distribution of precipitation events). While the results of this work confirmed the prevailing theory on vegetation patterning, they also revealed the importance therein of plant-level processes that cannot be rendered by reaction-diffusion models. Initial spatial distribution of plants, reproductive age, and average seed dispersal distance, by impacting patch size and vegetation aggregation, affected pattern formation and population survival under climatic variations. Besides, changes in precipitation regime altered the demographic structure and spatial organization of vegetation patches by affecting plants differentially depending on their age and biomass. Water availability influenced non-linearly total biomass density. Remarkably, lower precipitation resulted in lower mean plant age yet higher mean individual biomass. Moreover, seasonal variations in rainfall greater than a threshold (here, ±0.45 mm from the 1.3 mm baseline) decreased mean total biomass and generated limit cycles, which, in the case of large variations, were preceded by chaotic demographic and spatial behavior. In some cases, peculiar spatial patterns (e.g., rings) were also engendered. On a technical note, the shortcomings of the present model and the benefit of hybrid modeling for virtual investigations in plant science are discussed.

Spatial Self-Organization of Vegetation Subject to Climatic Stress—Insights from a System Dynamics—Individual-Based Hybrid Model

PubMed Central

Vincenot, Christian E.; Carteni, Fabrizio; Mazzoleni, Stefano; Rietkerk, Max; Giannino, Francesco

2016-01-01

In simulation models of populations or communities, individual plants have often been obfuscated in favor of aggregated vegetation. This simplification comes with a loss of biological detail and a smoothing out of the demographic noise engendered by stochastic individual-scale processes and heterogeneities, which is significant among others when studying the viability of small populations facing challenging fluctuating environmental conditions. This consideration has motivated the development of precise plant-centered models. The accuracy gained in the representation of plant biology has then, however, often been balanced by the disappearance in models of important plant-soil interactions (esp. water dynamics) due to the inability of most individual-based frameworks to simulate complex continuous processes. In this study, we used a hybrid modeling approach, namely integrated System Dynamics (SD)—Individual-based (IB), to illustrate the importance of individual plant dynamics to explain spatial self-organization of vegetation in arid environments. We analyzed the behavior of this model under different parameter sets either related to individual plant properties (such as seed dispersal distance and reproductive age) or the environment (such as intensity and yearly distribution of precipitation events). While the results of this work confirmed the prevailing theory on vegetation patterning, they also revealed the importance therein of plant-level processes that cannot be rendered by reaction-diffusion models. Initial spatial distribution of plants, reproductive age, and average seed dispersal distance, by impacting patch size and vegetation aggregation, affected pattern formation and population survival under climatic variations. Besides, changes in precipitation regime altered the demographic structure and spatial organization of vegetation patches by affecting plants differentially depending on their age and biomass. Water availability influenced non-linearly total biomass density. Remarkably, lower precipitation resulted in lower mean plant age yet higher mean individual biomass. Moreover, seasonal variations in rainfall greater than a threshold (here, ±0.45 mm from the 1.3 mm baseline) decreased mean total biomass and generated limit cycles, which, in the case of large variations, were preceded by chaotic demographic and spatial behavior. In some cases, peculiar spatial patterns (e.g., rings) were also engendered. On a technical note, the shortcomings of the present model and the benefit of hybrid modeling for virtual investigations in plant science are discussed. PMID:27252707

Successional changes in trophic interactions support a mechanistic model of post-fire population dynamics.

PubMed

Smith, Annabel L

2018-01-01

Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.

Data-Limited Population-Status Evaluation of Two Coastal Fishes in Southern Angola Using Recreational Catch Length-Frequency Data

PubMed Central

Beckensteiner, Jennifer; Kaplan, David M.; Potts, Warren M.; Santos, Carmen V.; O’Farrell, Michael R.

2016-01-01

Excessive truncation of a population’s size structure is often identified as an important deleterious effect of exploitation, yet the effect on population persistence of size-structure truncation caused by exploitation is often not quantified due to data limitations. In this study, we estimate changes in eggs per recruit (EPR) using annual length-frequency samples over a 9 year period to assess persistence of the two most important recreational fishes in southern Angola: west coast dusky kob (Argyrosomus coronus) and leerfish (Lichia amia). Using a length- and age-structured model, we improve on an existing method to fit this type of model to length-frequency data and estimate EPR. The objectives of the methodological changes are to add flexibility and robustness to the approach for assessing population status in data-limited situations. Results indicate that dusky kob presents very low levels of EPR (5%-10% of the per recruit reproductive capacity in the absence of fishing) in 2013, whereas large inter-annual variability in leerfish estimates suggest caution must be applied when drawing conclusions about its exploitation status. Using simulated length frequency data with known parameter values, we demonstrate that recruitment decline due to overexploitation leads to overestimation of EPR values. Considering the low levels of EPR estimated for the study species, recruitment limitation is not impossible and true EPR values may be even lower than our estimates. It is, therefore, likely that management action, such as the creation of Marine Protected Areas, is needed to reconstitute the west coast dusky kob population. PMID:26829489

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Survey of Models for Concrete Degradation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spencer, Benjamin W.; Huang, Hai

Concrete is widely used in the construction of nuclear facilities because of its structural strength and its ability to shield radiation. The use of concrete in nuclear facilities for containment and shielding of radiation and radioactive materials has made its performance crucial for the safe operation of the facility. As such, when life extension is considered for nuclear power plants, it is critical to have predictive tools to address concerns related to aging processes of concrete structures and the capacity of structures subjected to age-related degradation. The goal of this report is to review and document the main aging mechanismsmore » of concern for concrete structures in nuclear power plants (NPPs) and the models used in simulations of concrete aging and structural response of degraded concrete structures. This is in preparation for future work to develop and apply models for aging processes and response of aged NPP concrete structures in the Grizzly code. To that end, this report also provides recommendations for developing more robust predictive models for aging effects of performance of concrete.« less

Incorporating movement patterns to improve survival estimates for juvenile bull trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowerman, Tracy; Budy, Phaedra

2012-01-01

Populations of many fish species are sensitive to changes in vital rates during early life stages, but our understanding of the factors affecting growth, survival, and movement patterns is often extremely limited for juvenile fish. These critical information gaps are particularly evident for bull trout Salvelinus confluentus, a threatened Pacific Northwest char. We combined several active and passive mark–recapture and resight techniques to assess migration rates and estimate survival for juvenile bull trout (70–170 mm total length). We evaluated the relative performance of multiple survival estimation techniques by comparing results from a common Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model, the less widely used Barker model, and a simple return rate (an index of survival). Juvenile bull trout of all sizes emigrated from their natal habitat throughout the year, and thereafter migrated up to 50 km downstream. With the CJS model, high emigration rates led to an extreme underestimate of apparent survival, a combined estimate of site fidelity and survival. In contrast, the Barker model, which allows survival and emigration to be modeled as separate parameters, produced estimates of survival that were much less biased than the return rate. Estimates of age-class-specific annual survival from the Barker model based on all available data were 0.218±0.028 (estimate±SE) for age-1 bull trout and 0.231±0.065 for age-2 bull trout. This research demonstrates the importance of incorporating movement patterns into survival analyses, and we provide one of the first field-based estimates of juvenile bull trout annual survival in relatively pristine rearing conditions. These estimates can provide a baseline for comparison with future studies in more impacted systems and will help managers develop reliable stage-structured population models to evaluate future recovery strategies.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Metronidazole Evaluated Using Scavenged Samples from Preterm Infants

PubMed Central

Ouellet, Daniele; Smith, P. Brian; James, Laura P.; Ross, Ashley; Sullivan, Janice E.; Walsh, Michele C.; Zadell, Arlene; Newman, Nancy; White, Nicole R.; Kashuba, Angela D. M.; Benjamin, Daniel K.

2012-01-01

Pharmacokinetic (PK) studies in preterm infants are rarely conducted due to the research challenges posed by this population. To overcome these challenges, minimal-risk methods such as scavenged sampling can be used to evaluate the PK of commonly used drugs in this population. We evaluated the population PK of metronidazole using targeted sparse sampling and scavenged samples from infants that were ≤32 weeks of gestational age at birth and <120 postnatal days. A 5-center study was performed. A population PK model using nonlinear mixed-effect modeling (NONMEM) was developed. Covariate effects were evaluated based on estimated precision and clinical significance. Using the individual Bayesian PK estimates from the final population PK model and the dosing regimen used for each subject, the proportion of subjects achieving the therapeutic target of trough concentrations >8 mg/liter was calculated. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to evaluate the adequacy of different dosing recommendations per gestational age group. Thirty-two preterm infants were enrolled: the median (range) gestational age at birth was 27 (22 to 32) weeks, postnatal age was 41 (0 to 97) days, postmenstrual age (PMA) was 32 (24 to 43) weeks, and weight was 1,495 (678 to 3,850) g. The final PK data set contained 116 samples; 104/116 (90%) were scavenged from discarded clinical specimens. Metronidazole population PK was best described by a 1-compartment model. The population mean clearance (CL; liter/h) was determined as 0.0397 × (weight/1.5) × (PMA/32)2.49 using a volume of distribution (V) (liter) of 1.07 × (weight/1.5). The relative standard errors around parameter estimates ranged between 11% and 30%. On average, metronidazole concentrations in scavenged samples were 30% lower than those measured in scheduled blood draws. The majority of infants (>70%) met predefined pharmacodynamic efficacy targets. A new, simplified, postmenstrual-age-based dosing regimen is recommended for this population. Minimal-risk methods such as scavenged PK sampling provided meaningful information related to development of metronidazole PK models and dosing recommendations. PMID:22252819

The neuroregenerative capacity of olfactory stem cells is not limitless: implications for aging.

PubMed

Child, Kevin M; Herrick, Daniel B; Schwob, James E; Holbrook, Eric H; Jang, Woochan

2018-06-22

The olfactory epithelium (OE) of vertebrates is a highly regenerative neuroepithelium, maintained under normal condition by a population of stem and progenitor cells - globose basal cells (GBCs) that also contribute to epithelial reconstitution after injury. However, aging of the OE often leads to neurogenic exhaustion - the disappearance of both GBCs and olfactory sensory neurons (OSNs). Aneuronal tissue may remain as olfactory, with an uninterrupted sheet of apically arrayed microvillar-capped sustentacular cell, or may undergo respiratory metaplasia. We have generated a transgenic mouse model for neurogenic exhaustion using OMP-driven Tet-off regulation of the A subunit of Diphtheria toxin such that the death of mature OSNs is accelerated. As early as 2 months of age the epithelium of transgenic mice, regardless of sex, recapitulates what is seen in the aged OE of humans and rodents. Areas of the epithelium completely lack neurons and GBCs, while the horizontal basal cells, a reserve stem cell population, show no evidence of activation. Surprisingly, other areas that were olfactory undergo respiratory metaplasia. The impact of accelerated neuronal death and reduced innervation on the olfactory bulb (OB) is also examined. Constant neuronal turnover leaves glomeruli shrunken and impacts the dopaminergic interneurons in the periglomerular layer. Moreover, the acceleration of OSN death can be reversed in those areas where some GBCs persist. However, the projection onto the OB recovers incompletely and the reinnervated glomeruli are markedly altered. Thus, the capacity for OE regeneration is tempered when GBCs disappear. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT A large percentage of humans lose or suffer a significant decline in olfactory function as they age. Consequently, quality of life suffers, and safety and nutritional status are put at risk. With age, the OE apparently becomes incapable of fully maintaining the neuronal population of the epithelium despite its well-known capacity for recovering from most forms of injury when younger which may contribute to age-related olfactory loss. Efforts to identify the mechanism by which olfactory neurogenesis becomes exhausted with age require a powerful model for accelerating age-related tissue pathology. The current OMP-tTA ; TetO-DTA transgenic mouse model, in which olfactory neurons die when they reach maturity and accelerated death can be aborted to assess the capacity for structural recovery, satisfies that need. Copyright © 2018 the authors.

An approximation of herd effect due to vaccinating children against seasonal influenza – a potential solution to the incorporation of indirect effects into static models

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Indirect herd effect from vaccination of children offers potential for improving the effectiveness of influenza prevention in the remaining unvaccinated population. Static models used in cost-effectiveness analyses cannot dynamically capture herd effects. The objective of this study was to develop a methodology to allow herd effect associated with vaccinating children against seasonal influenza to be incorporated into static models evaluating the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination. Methods Two previously published linear equations for approximation of herd effects in general were compared with the results of a structured literature review undertaken using PubMed searches to identify data on herd effects specific to influenza vaccination. A linear function was fitted to point estimates from the literature using the sum of squared residuals. Results The literature review identified 21 publications on 20 studies for inclusion. Six studies provided data on a mathematical relationship between effective vaccine coverage in subgroups and reduction of influenza infection in a larger unvaccinated population. These supported a linear relationship when effective vaccine coverage in a subgroup population was between 20% and 80%. Three studies evaluating herd effect at a community level, specifically induced by vaccinating children, provided point estimates for fitting linear equations. The fitted linear equation for herd protection in the target population for vaccination (children) was slightly less conservative than a previously published equation for herd effects in general. The fitted linear equation for herd protection in the non-target population was considerably less conservative than the previously published equation. Conclusions This method of approximating herd effect requires simple adjustments to the annual baseline risk of influenza in static models: (1) for the age group targeted by the childhood vaccination strategy (i.e. children); and (2) for other age groups not targeted (e.g. adults and/or elderly). Two approximations provide a linear relationship between effective coverage and reduction in the risk of infection. The first is a conservative approximation, recommended as a base-case for cost-effectiveness evaluations. The second, fitted to data extracted from a structured literature review, provides a less conservative estimate of herd effect, recommended for sensitivity analyses. PMID:23339290

Individual-Based Modeling of Tuberculosis in a User-Friendly Interface: Understanding the Epidemiological Role of Population Heterogeneity in a City

PubMed Central

Prats, Clara; Montañola-Sales, Cristina; Gilabert-Navarro, Joan F.; Valls, Joaquim; Casanovas-Garcia, Josep; Vilaplana, Cristina; Cardona, Pere-Joan; López, Daniel

2016-01-01

For millennia tuberculosis (TB) has shown a successful strategy to survive, making it one of the world’s deadliest infectious diseases. This resilient behavior is based not only on remaining hidden in most of the infected population, but also by showing slow evolution in most sick people. The course of the disease within a population is highly related to its heterogeneity. Thus, classic epidemiological approaches with a top-down perspective have not succeeded in understanding its dynamics. In the past decade a few individual-based models were built, but most of them preserved a top-down view that makes it difficult to study a heterogeneous population. We propose an individual-based model developed with a bottom-up approach to studying the dynamics of pulmonary TB in a certain population, considered constant. Individuals may belong to the following classes: healthy, infected, sick, under treatment, and treated with a probability of relapse. Several variables and parameters account for their age, origin (native or immigrant), immunodeficiency, diabetes, and other risk factors (smoking and alcoholism). The time within each infection state is controlled, and sick individuals may show a cavitated disease or not that conditions infectiousness. It was implemented in NetLogo because it allows non-modelers to perform virtual experiments with a user-friendly interface. The simulation was conducted with data from Ciutat Vella, a district of Barcelona with an incidence of 67 TB cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2013. Several virtual experiments were performed to relate the disease dynamics with the structure of the infected subpopulation (e.g., the distribution of infected times). Moreover, the short-term effect of health control policies on modifying that structure was studied. Results show that the characteristics of the population are crucial for the local epidemiology of TB. The developed user-friendly tool is ready to test control strategies of disease in any city in the short-term. PMID:26793189

Individual-Based Modeling of Tuberculosis in a User-Friendly Interface: Understanding the Epidemiological Role of Population Heterogeneity in a City.

PubMed

Prats, Clara; Montañola-Sales, Cristina; Gilabert-Navarro, Joan F; Valls, Joaquim; Casanovas-Garcia, Josep; Vilaplana, Cristina; Cardona, Pere-Joan; López, Daniel

2015-01-01

For millennia tuberculosis (TB) has shown a successful strategy to survive, making it one of the world's deadliest infectious diseases. This resilient behavior is based not only on remaining hidden in most of the infected population, but also by showing slow evolution in most sick people. The course of the disease within a population is highly related to its heterogeneity. Thus, classic epidemiological approaches with a top-down perspective have not succeeded in understanding its dynamics. In the past decade a few individual-based models were built, but most of them preserved a top-down view that makes it difficult to study a heterogeneous population. We propose an individual-based model developed with a bottom-up approach to studying the dynamics of pulmonary TB in a certain population, considered constant. Individuals may belong to the following classes: healthy, infected, sick, under treatment, and treated with a probability of relapse. Several variables and parameters account for their age, origin (native or immigrant), immunodeficiency, diabetes, and other risk factors (smoking and alcoholism). The time within each infection state is controlled, and sick individuals may show a cavitated disease or not that conditions infectiousness. It was implemented in NetLogo because it allows non-modelers to perform virtual experiments with a user-friendly interface. The simulation was conducted with data from Ciutat Vella, a district of Barcelona with an incidence of 67 TB cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2013. Several virtual experiments were performed to relate the disease dynamics with the structure of the infected subpopulation (e.g., the distribution of infected times). Moreover, the short-term effect of health control policies on modifying that structure was studied. Results show that the characteristics of the population are crucial for the local epidemiology of TB. The developed user-friendly tool is ready to test control strategies of disease in any city in the short-term.

A Feature-based Developmental Model of the Infant Brain in Structural MRI

PubMed Central

Toews, Matthew; Wells, William M.; Zöllei, Lilla

2014-01-01

In this paper, anatomical development is modeled as a collection of distinctive image patterns localized in space and time. A Bayesian posterior probability is defined over a random variable of subject age, conditioned on data in the form of scale-invariant image features. The model is automatically learned from a large set of images exhibiting significant variation, used to discover anatomical structure related to age and development, and fit to new images to predict age. The model is applied to a set of 230 infant structural MRIs of 92 subjects acquired at multiple sites over an age range of 8-590 days. Experiments demonstrate that the model can be used to identify age-related anatomical structure, and to predict the age of new subjects with an average error of 72 days. PMID:23286050

The Frequency of Circumnuclear Starbursts in Seyfert Galaxies --- Testing the Starburst-AGN Connection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schinnerer, E.; Colbert, E.; Armus, L.; Scoville, N. Z.; Heckman, T. M.

We obtained sub-arcsecond medium resolution near-infrared spectra of a sample of nearby bright Seyfert galaxies (8 Seyfert 1s, 11 Seyfert 2s) using the KeckII telescope. The stellar absorption lines present in the spectra were used in conjunction with population synthesis models to determine the age of the circumnuclear stellar population. Initial analysis of a sub-sample of the Seyfert galaxies has provided no evidence for a connection between the age of the circumnuclear stellar population and the Seyfert type. The derived ages for the circumnuclear stellar population are in the range of 10 Myr to < 0.5 Gyr assuming an instantaneous starburst (using the STARBURST99 models).

Population demography of an endangered lizard, the Blue Mountains Water Skink

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Information on the age structure within populations of an endangered species can facilitate effective management. The Blue Mountains Water Skink (Eulamprus leuraensis) is a viviparous scincid lizard that is restricted to < 40 isolated montane swamps in south-eastern Australia. We used skeletochronology of phalanges (corroborated by mark-recapture data) to estimate ages of 222 individuals from 13 populations. Results These lizards grow rapidly, from neonatal size (30 mm snout-vent length) to adult size (about 70 mm SVL) within two to three years. Fecundity is low (mean 2.9 offspring per litter) and is affected by maternal body length and age. Offspring quality may decline with maternal age, based upon captive-born neonates (older females gave birth to slower offspring). In contrast to its broadly sympatric (and abundant) congener E. tympanum, E. leuraensis is short-lived (maximum 6 years, vs 15 years for E. tympanum). Litter size and offspring size are similar in the two species, but female E. leuraensis reproduce annually whereas many E. tympanum produce litters biennially. Thus, a low survival rate (rather than delayed maturation or low annual fecundity) is the key reason why E. leuraensis is endangered. Our 13 populations exhibited similar growth rates and population age structures despite substantial variation in elevation, geographic location and swamp size. However, larger populations (based on a genetic estimate of effective population size) contained older lizards, and thus a wider variance in ages. Conclusion Our study suggests that low adult survival rates, as well as specialisation on a rare and fragmented habitat type (montane swamps) contribute to the endangered status of the Blue Mountains Water Skink. PMID:23402634

Avoiding Aging? Social Psychology's Treatment of Age

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barrett, Anne E.; Redmond, Rebecca; von Rohr, Carmen

2012-01-01

Population aging, in conjunction with social and cultural transformations of the life course, has profound implications for social systems--from large-scale structures to micro-level processes. However, much of sociology remains fairly quiet on issues of age and aging, including the subfield of social psychology that could illuminate the impact of…

Male Kirtland's Warblers' patch-level response to landscape structure during periods of varying population size and habitat amounts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donner, D.M.; Ribic, C.A.; Probst, J.R.

2009-01-01

Forest planners must evaluate how spatiotemporal changes in habitat amount and configuration across the landscape as a result of timber management will affect species' persistence. However, there are few long-term programs available for evaluation. We investigated the response of male Kirtland's Warbler (Dendroica kirtlandii) to 26 years of changing patch and landscape structure during a large, 26-year forestry-habitat restoration program within the warbler's primary breeding range. We found that the average density of male Kirtland's Warblers was related to a different combination of patch and landscape attributes depending on the species' regional population level and habitat amounts on the landscape (early succession jack pine (Pinus banksiana) forests; 15-42% habitat cover). Specifically, patch age and habitat regeneration type were important at low male population and total habitat amounts, while patch age and distance to an occupied patch were important at relatively high population and habitat amounts. Patch age and size were more important at increasing population levels and an intermediate amount of habitat. The importance of patch age to average male density during all periods reflects the temporal buildup and decline of male numbers as habitat suitability within the patch changed with succession. Habitat selection (i.e., preference for wildfire-regenerated habitat) and availability may explain the importance of habitat type and patch size during lower population and habitat levels. The relationship between male density and distance when there was the most habitat on the landscape and the male population was large and still increasing may be explained by the widening spatial dispersion of the increasing male population at the regional scale. Because creating or preserving habitat is not a random process, management efforts would benefit from more investigations of managed population responses to changes in spatial structure that occur through habitat gain rather than habitat loss to further our empirical understanding of general principles of the fragmentation process and habitat cover threshold effects within dynamic landscapes.

Adélie penguin survival: age structure, temporal variability and environmental influences.

PubMed

Emmerson, Louise; Southwell, Colin

2011-12-01

The driving factors of survival, a key demographic process, have been particularly challenging to study, especially for winter migratory species such as the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae). While winter environmental conditions clearly influence Antarctic seabird survival, it has been unclear to which environmental features they are most likely to respond. Here, we examine the influence of environmental fluctuations, broad climatic conditions and the success of the breeding season prior to winter on annual survival of an Adélie penguin population using mark-recapture models based on penguin tag and resight data over a 16-year period. This analysis required an extension to the basic Cormack-Jolly-Seber model by incorporating age structure in recapture and survival sub-models. By including model covariates, we show that survival of older penguins is primarily related to the amount and concentration of ice present in their winter foraging grounds. In contrast, fledgling and yearling survival depended on other factors in addition to the physical marine environment and outcomes of the previous breeding season, but we were unable to determine what these were. The relationship between sea-ice and survival differed with penguin age: extensive ice during the return journey to breeding colonies was detrimental to survival for the younger penguins, whereas either too little or too much ice (between 15 and 80% cover) in the winter foraging grounds was detrimental for adults. Our results demonstrate that predictions of Adélie penguin survival can be improved by taking into account penguin age, prior breeding conditions and environmental features.

Iowa Population Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tait, John L.; Johnson, Arthur H.

The trends in population distribution and the composition of Iowa's population are reported in this document in order to provide the leaders and citizens of Iowa with information to assist them in making decisions relating to growth and development. Birth and death rates, rural and urban residence, population by race, and age structure are…

Population projections for AIDS using an actuarial model.

PubMed

Wilkie, A D

1989-09-05

This paper gives details of a model for forecasting AIDS, developed for actuarial purposes, but used also for population projections. The model is only appropriate for homosexual transmission, but it is age-specific, and it allows variation in the transition intensities by age, duration in certain states and calendar year. The differential equations controlling transitions between states are defined, the method of numerical solution is outlined, and the parameters used in five different Bases of projection are given in detail. Numerical results for the population of England and Wales are shown.

Correcting for population structure and kinship using the linear mixed model: theory and extensions.

PubMed

Hoffman, Gabriel E

2013-01-01

Population structure and kinship are widespread confounding factors in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). It has been standard practice to include principal components of the genotypes in a regression model in order to account for population structure. More recently, the linear mixed model (LMM) has emerged as a powerful method for simultaneously accounting for population structure and kinship. The statistical theory underlying the differences in empirical performance between modeling principal components as fixed versus random effects has not been thoroughly examined. We undertake an analysis to formalize the relationship between these widely used methods and elucidate the statistical properties of each. Moreover, we introduce a new statistic, effective degrees of freedom, that serves as a metric of model complexity and a novel low rank linear mixed model (LRLMM) to learn the dimensionality of the correction for population structure and kinship, and we assess its performance through simulations. A comparison of the results of LRLMM and a standard LMM analysis applied to GWAS data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) illustrates how our theoretical results translate into empirical properties of the mixed model. Finally, the analysis demonstrates the ability of the LRLMM to substantially boost the strength of an association for HDL cholesterol in Europeans.

Towards a novel model for studying the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian population by age and socioeconomic status

PubMed Central

Sarmiento, Olga L.; Olaya, Camilo; Lemoine, Pablo D.; Valdivia, Juan A.; Zarama, Roberto

2018-01-01

Low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) are experiencing a nutritional transition in which the burden of obesity tends to shift towards the lower-socioeconomic status (SES) group. We propose a system dynamics (SD) model for assessing the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian urban population by age and SES projected to 2030. This SD model captures the ageing population according to body mass index (BMI) categories and SES. In this model, the transference rates (TRs) between BMI categories by age and SES are estimated using a heuristic based on data obtained from national surveys. The simulation results show that the Colombian population, particularly those aged 20 to 39 years with a lower SES, is moving towards the overweight and obese categories. The TRs for overweight and obese categories in the lower SES group (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0215 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0098 (per year)) are increasing more rapidly than the those in the middle (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0162 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0065 (per year)) and higher SES groups (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0166 and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0054 (per year)). Additionally, from 2005 to 2010, individuals aged 20 to 39 years had the highest TRs towards the overweight and obese categories (from 0.026 to 0.036 per year and from 0.0064 to 0.012 per year, respectively). The TRs also indicated that children aged 0 to 14 years are moving from the obese to overweight and from the overweight to not overweight categories. These TRs show that the Colombian population is experiencing an SES-related nutritional transition that is affecting the lower SES population. The proposed model could be implemented to assess the nutritional transitions experienced in other LMICs. PMID:29420563

Towards a novel model for studying the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian population by age and socioeconomic status.

PubMed

Meisel, Jose D; Sarmiento, Olga L; Olaya, Camilo; Lemoine, Pablo D; Valdivia, Juan A; Zarama, Roberto

2018-01-01

Low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) are experiencing a nutritional transition in which the burden of obesity tends to shift towards the lower-socioeconomic status (SES) group. We propose a system dynamics (SD) model for assessing the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian urban population by age and SES projected to 2030. This SD model captures the ageing population according to body mass index (BMI) categories and SES. In this model, the transference rates (TRs) between BMI categories by age and SES are estimated using a heuristic based on data obtained from national surveys. The simulation results show that the Colombian population, particularly those aged 20 to 39 years with a lower SES, is moving towards the overweight and obese categories. The TRs for overweight and obese categories in the lower SES group (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0215 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0098 (per year)) are increasing more rapidly than the those in the middle (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0162 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0065 (per year)) and higher SES groups (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0166 and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0054 (per year)). Additionally, from 2005 to 2010, individuals aged 20 to 39 years had the highest TRs towards the overweight and obese categories (from 0.026 to 0.036 per year and from 0.0064 to 0.012 per year, respectively). The TRs also indicated that children aged 0 to 14 years are moving from the obese to overweight and from the overweight to not overweight categories. These TRs show that the Colombian population is experiencing an SES-related nutritional transition that is affecting the lower SES population. The proposed model could be implemented to assess the nutritional transitions experienced in other LMICs.

A longevity record for Canada lynx, Lynx canadensis, in western Montana

Treesearch

Jay A. Kolbe; John R. Squires

2006-01-01

The Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) was listed as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act (USDI Fish and Wildlife Service 2000) in 2000 and is a species of conservation concern in the United States. New insights into the basic demography of southern lynx populations are needed. Data describing population age structures, including maximum ages, will...

Interpretation of age-structure gaps in hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) populations of Algonquin Provincial Park, Ontario, Canada

Treesearch

S. A. Vasiliauskas; L. W. Aarssen

2000-01-01

Casual observations have suggested that intermediate size and age gaps may exist in the eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.)Carr.) populations of Algonquin Provincial Park, Ontario. This was confirmed in vegetation surveys reported here. Several hypotheses, involving mortality risks at different points in the life cycle of hemlock, are proposed to...

Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

Evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Aming; Broom, Mark; Du, Jinming; Wang, Long

2016-02-01

The evolution of populations is influenced by many factors, and the simple classical models have been developed in a number of important ways. Both population structure and multiplayer interactions have been shown to significantly affect the evolution of important properties, such as the level of cooperation or of aggressive behavior. Here we combine these two key factors and develop the evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations represented by regular graphs. The traditional linear and threshold public goods games are adopted as models to address the dynamics. We show that for linear group interactions, population structure can favor the evolution of cooperation compared to the well-mixed case, and we see that the more neighbors there are, the harder it is for cooperators to persist in structured populations. We further show that threshold group interactions could lead to the emergence of cooperation even in well-mixed populations. Here population structure sometimes inhibits cooperation for the threshold public goods game, where depending on the benefit to cost ratio, the outcomes are bistability or a monomorphic population of defectors or cooperators. Our results suggest, counterintuitively, that structured populations are not always beneficial for the evolution of cooperation for nonlinear group interactions.

Relative effects of survival and reproduction on the population dynamics of emperor geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmutz, Joel A.; Rockwell, Robert F.; Petersen, Margaret R.

1997-01-01

Populations of emperor geese (Chen canagica) in Alaska declined sometime between the mid-1960s and the mid-1980s and have increased little since. To promote recovery of this species to former levels, managers need to know how much their perturbations of survival and/or reproduction would affect population growth rate (λ). We constructed an individual-based population model to evaluate the relative effect of altering mean values of various survival and reproductive parameters on λ and fall age structure (AS, defined as the proportion of juv), assuming additive rather than compensatory relations among parameters. Altering survival of adults had markedly greater relative effects on λ than did equally proportionate changes in either juvenile survival or reproductive parameters. We found the opposite pattern for relative effects on AS. Due to concerns about bias in the initial parameter estimates used in our model, we used 5 additional sets of parameter estimates with this model structure. We found that estimates of survival based on aerial survey data gathered each fall resulted in models that corresponded more closely to independent estimates of λ than did models that used mark-recapture estimates of survival. This disparity suggests that mark-recapture estimates of survival are biased low. To further explore how parameter estimates affected estimates of λ, we used values of survival and reproduction found in other goose species, and we examined the effect of an hypothesized correlation between an individual's clutch size and the subsequent survival of her young. The rank order of parameters in their relative effects on λ was consistent for all 6 parameter sets we examined. The observed variation in relative effects on λ among the 6 parameter sets is indicative of how relative effects on λ may vary among goose populations. With this knowledge of the relative effects of survival and reproductive parameters on λ, managers can make more informed decisions about which parameters to influence through management or to target for future study.

Generalized fish life-cycle poplulation model and computer program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeAngelis, D. L.; Van Winkle, W.; Christensen, S. W.

1978-03-01

A generalized fish life-cycle population model and computer program have been prepared to evaluate the long-term effect of changes in mortality in age class 0. The general question concerns what happens to a fishery when density-independent sources of mortality are introduced that act on age class 0, particularly entrainment and impingement at power plants. This paper discusses the model formulation and computer program, including sample results. The population model consists of a system of difference equations involving age-dependent fecundity and survival. The fecundity for each age class is assumed to be a function of both the fraction of females sexuallymore » mature and the weight of females as they enter each age class. Natural mortality for age classes 1 and older is assumed to be independent of population size. Fishing mortality is assumed to vary with the number and weight of fish available to the fishery. Age class 0 is divided into six life stages. The probability of survival for age class 0 is estimated considering both density-independent mortality (natural and power plant) and density-dependent mortality for each life stage. Two types of density-dependent mortality are included. These are cannibalism of each life stage by older age classes and intra-life-stage competition.« less

Integrating affective and cognitive correlates of heart rate variability: A structural equation modeling approach

PubMed Central

Mann, Sarah L.; Selby, Edward A.; Bates, Marsha E.; Contrada, Richard J.

2016-01-01

High frequency heart rate variability (HRV) is a measure of neurocardiac communication thought to reflect predominantly parasympathetic cardiac regulation. Low HRV has been associated empirically with clinical and subclinical levels of anxiety and depression and, more recently, high levels of HRV have been associated with better performance on some measures of executive functioning (EF). These findings have offered support for theories proposing HRV as an index measure of a broad, self-regulatory capacity underlying aspects of emotion regulation and executive control. This study sought to test that proposition by using a structural equation modeling approach to examine the relationships of HRV to negative affect (NA) and EF in a large sample of U.S. adults ages 30s–80s. HRV was modeled as a predictor of an NA factor (self-reported trait anxiety and depression symptoms) and an EF factor (performance on three neuropsychological tests tapping facets of executive abilities). Alternative models also were tested to determine the utility of HRV for predicting NA and EF, with and without statistical control of demographic and health-related covariates. In the initial structural model, HRV showed a significant positive relationship to EF and a nonsignificant relationship to NA. In a covariate-adjusted model, HRV’s associations with both constructs were nonsignificant. Age emerged as the only significant predictor of NA and EF in the final model, showing inverse relationships to both. Findings may reflect population and methodological differences from prior research; they also suggest refinements to the interpretations of earlier findings and theoretical claims regarding HRV. PMID:26168884

Overgeneral autobiographical memory in healthy young and older adults: Differential age effects on components of the capture and rumination, functional avoidance, and impaired executive control (CaRFAX) model.

PubMed

Ros, Laura; Latorre, Jose M; Serrano, Juan P; Ricarte, Jorge J

2017-08-01

The CaRFAX model (Williams et al., 2007) has been used to explain the causes of overgeneral autobiographical memory (OGM; the difficulty to retrieve specific autobiographical memories), a cognitive phenomenon generally related with different psychopathologies. This model proposes 3 different mechanisms to explain OGM: capture and rumination (CaR), functional avoidance (FA) and impaired executive functions (X). However, the complete CaRFAX model has not been tested in nonclinical populations. This study aims to assess the usefulness of the CaRFAX model to explain OGM in 2 healthy samples: a young sample and an older sample, to test for possible age-related differences in the underlying causes of OGM. A total of 175 young (age range: 19-36 years) and 175 older (age range: 53-88 years) participants completed measures of brooding rumination (CaR), functional avoidance (FA), and executive tasks (X). Using structural equation modeling, we found that memory specificity is mainly associated with lower functional avoidance and higher executive functions in the older group, but only with executive functions in young participants. We discuss the different roles of emotional regulation strategies used by young and older people and their relation to the CaRFAX model to explain OGM in healthy people. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Unification theory of optimal life histories and linear demographic models in internal stochasticity.

PubMed

Oizumi, Ryo

2014-01-01

Life history of organisms is exposed to uncertainty generated by internal and external stochasticities. Internal stochasticity is generated by the randomness in each individual life history, such as randomness in food intake, genetic character and size growth rate, whereas external stochasticity is due to the environment. For instance, it is known that the external stochasticity tends to affect population growth rate negatively. It has been shown in a recent theoretical study using path-integral formulation in structured linear demographic models that internal stochasticity can affect population growth rate positively or negatively. However, internal stochasticity has not been the main subject of researches. Taking account of effect of internal stochasticity on the population growth rate, the fittest organism has the optimal control of life history affected by the stochasticity in the habitat. The study of this control is known as the optimal life schedule problems. In order to analyze the optimal control under internal stochasticity, we need to make use of "Stochastic Control Theory" in the optimal life schedule problem. There is, however, no such kind of theory unifying optimal life history and internal stochasticity. This study focuses on an extension of optimal life schedule problems to unify control theory of internal stochasticity into linear demographic models. First, we show the relationship between the general age-states linear demographic models and the stochastic control theory via several mathematical formulations, such as path-integral, integral equation, and transition matrix. Secondly, we apply our theory to a two-resource utilization model for two different breeding systems: semelparity and iteroparity. Finally, we show that the diversity of resources is important for species in a case. Our study shows that this unification theory can address risk hedges of life history in general age-states linear demographic models.

Unification Theory of Optimal Life Histories and Linear Demographic Models in Internal Stochasticity

PubMed Central

Oizumi, Ryo

2014-01-01

Life history of organisms is exposed to uncertainty generated by internal and external stochasticities. Internal stochasticity is generated by the randomness in each individual life history, such as randomness in food intake, genetic character and size growth rate, whereas external stochasticity is due to the environment. For instance, it is known that the external stochasticity tends to affect population growth rate negatively. It has been shown in a recent theoretical study using path-integral formulation in structured linear demographic models that internal stochasticity can affect population growth rate positively or negatively. However, internal stochasticity has not been the main subject of researches. Taking account of effect of internal stochasticity on the population growth rate, the fittest organism has the optimal control of life history affected by the stochasticity in the habitat. The study of this control is known as the optimal life schedule problems. In order to analyze the optimal control under internal stochasticity, we need to make use of “Stochastic Control Theory” in the optimal life schedule problem. There is, however, no such kind of theory unifying optimal life history and internal stochasticity. This study focuses on an extension of optimal life schedule problems to unify control theory of internal stochasticity into linear demographic models. First, we show the relationship between the general age-states linear demographic models and the stochastic control theory via several mathematical formulations, such as path–integral, integral equation, and transition matrix. Secondly, we apply our theory to a two-resource utilization model for two different breeding systems: semelparity and iteroparity. Finally, we show that the diversity of resources is important for species in a case. Our study shows that this unification theory can address risk hedges of life history in general age-states linear demographic models. PMID:24945258

Investigation of factors influencing radioiodine (131I) biokinetics in patients with benign thyroid disease using nonlinear mixed effects approach.

PubMed

Topić Vučenović, Valentina; Rajkovača, Zvezdana; Jelić, Dijana; Stanimirović, Dragi; Vuleta, Goran; Miljković, Branislava; Vučićević, Katarina

2018-05-13

Radioiodine ( 131 I) therapy is the common treatment option for benign thyroid diseases. The objective of this study was to characterize 131 I biokinetics in patients with benign thyroid disease and to investigate and quantify the influence of patients' demographic and clinical characteristics on intra-thyroidal 131 I kinetics by developing a population model. Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using a nonlinear mixed effects approach. Data sets of 345 adult patients with benign thyroid disease, retrospectively collected from patients' medical records, were evaluated in the analysis. The two-compartment model of 131 I biokinetics representing the blood compartment and thyroid gland was used as the structural model. Results of the study indicate that the rate constant of the uptake of 131 I into the thyroid (k tu ) is significantly influenced by clinical diagnosis, age, functional thyroid volume, free thyroxine in plasma (fT 4 ), use of anti-thyroid drugs, and time of discontinuation of therapy before administration of the radioiodine (THDT), while the effective half-life of 131 I is affected by the age of the patients. Inclusion of the covariates in the base model resulted in a decrease of the between subject variability for k tu from 91 (3.9) to 53.9 (4.5)%. This is the first population model that accounts for the influence of fT 4 and THDT on radioiodine kinetics. The model could be used for further investigations into the correlation between thyroidal exposure to 131 I and the outcome of radioiodine therapy of benign thyroid disease as well as the development of dosing recommendations.

A Bayesian hierarchical model for accident and injury surveillance.

PubMed

MacNab, Ying C

2003-01-01

This article presents a recent study which applies Bayesian hierarchical methodology to model and analyse accident and injury surveillance data. A hierarchical Poisson random effects spatio-temporal model is introduced and an analysis of inter-regional variations and regional trends in hospitalisations due to motor vehicle accident injuries to boys aged 0-24 in the province of British Columbia, Canada, is presented. The objective of this article is to illustrate how the modelling technique can be implemented as part of an accident and injury surveillance and prevention system where transportation and/or health authorities may routinely examine accidents, injuries, and hospitalisations to target high-risk regions for prevention programs, to evaluate prevention strategies, and to assist in health planning and resource allocation. The innovation of the methodology is its ability to uncover and highlight important underlying structure of the data. Between 1987 and 1996, British Columbia hospital separation registry registered 10,599 motor vehicle traffic injury related hospitalisations among boys aged 0-24 who resided in British Columbia, of which majority (89%) of the injuries occurred to boys aged 15-24. The injuries were aggregated by three age groups (0-4, 5-14, and 15-24), 20 health regions (based of place-of-residence), and 10 calendar years (1987 to 1996) and the corresponding mid-year population estimates were used as 'at risk' population. An empirical Bayes inference technique using penalised quasi-likelihood estimation was implemented to model both rates and counts, with spline smoothing accommodating non-linear temporal effects. The results show that (a) crude rates and ratios at health region level are unstable, (b) the models with spline smoothing enable us to explore possible shapes of injury trends at both the provincial level and the regional level, and (c) the fitted models provide a wealth of information about the patterns (both over space and time) of the injury counts, rates and ratios. During the 10-year period, high injury risk ratios evolved from northwest to central-interior and the southeast [corrected].

Dental age estimation of growing children by measurement of open apices: A Malaysian formula

PubMed Central

Cugati, Navaneetha; Kumaresan, Ramesh; Srinivasan, Balamanikanda; Karthikeyan, Priyadarshini

2015-01-01

Background: Age estimation is of prime importance in forensic science and clinical dentistry. Age estimation based on teeth development is one reliable approach. Many radiographic methods are proposed on the Western population for estimating dental age, and a similar assessment was found to be inadequate in Malaysian population. Hence, this study aims at formulating a regression model for dental age estimation in Malaysian children population using Cameriere's method. Materials and Methods: Orthopantomographs of 421 Malaysian children aged between 5 and 16 years involving all the three ethnic origins were digitalized and analyzed using Cameriere's method of age estimation. The subjects’ age was modeled as a function of the morphological variables, gender (g), ethnicity, sum of normalized open apices (s), number of tooth with completed root formation (N0) and the first-order interaction between s and N0. Results: The variables that contributed significantly to the fit were included in the regression model, yielding the following formula: Age = 11.368-0.345g + 0.553No -1.096s - 0.380s.No, where g is a variable, 1 for males and 2 for females. The equation explained 87.1% of total deviance. Conclusion: The results obtained insist on reframing the original Cameriere's formula to suit the population of the nation specifically. Further studies are to be conducted to evaluate the applicability of this formula on a larger sample size. PMID:26816464

Psychometric Analysis of the Three-Factor Eating Questionnaire-R18V2 in Adolescent and Young Adult-Aged Central Nervous System Tumor Survivors.

PubMed

Swartz, Maria C; Basen-Engquist, Karen M; Markham, Christine; Lyons, Elizabeth J; Cox, Matthew; Chandra, Joya; Ater, Joann L; Askins, Martha A; Scheurer, Michael E; Lupo, Philip J; Hill, Rachel; Murray, Jeffrey; Chan, Wenyaw; Swank, Paul R

2016-09-01

Adolescent and young adult (AYA)-aged central nervous system (CNS) tumor survivors are an understudied population that is at risk of developing adverse health outcomes, such as obesity. Long-term follow-up guidelines recommend monitoring those at risk of obesity, thus motivating the need for an eating behavior questionnaire. An abbreviated online version of the Three-Factor Eating Questionnaire (TFEQ-R18v2) has been developed, but its applicability to this population is not yet known. This study investigated the instrument's factor structure and reliability in this population. AYA-aged CNS tumor survivors (n = 114) aged 15-39 years completed the TFEQ-R18V2 questionnaire online. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to examine the fit of the three-factor structure (uncontrollable eating, cognitive restraint, and emotional eating [EE]) and reliability (internal consistency of the TFEQ-R18v2). Associations between the three factors and body mass index (BMI) were assessed by linear regression. The theorized three-factor structure was supported in our population (RMSEA = 0.056 and CFI = 0.98) and demonstrated good reliability (α of 0.81-0.93). EE (β = 0.07, 95% CI 0.02-0.13) was positively associated with BMI, whereas the other two subscale scores were not. The TFEQ-R18v2 instrument holds promise for research and clinical use among AYA-aged CNS tumor survivors. The instrument may be a useful tool for researchers to develop tailored weight management strategies. It also may be a valuable tool for clinicians to monitor survivors who are at risk of obesity and to facilitate referral. Our results also suggest that EE in this population should be further investigated as a potential target for intervention.

The projected burden of hearing loss in New Zealand (2011-2061) and the implications for the hearing health workforce.

PubMed

Exeter, Daniel J; Wu, Billy; Lee, Arier C; Searchfield, Grant D

2015-08-07

There is considerable evidence that New Zealand's population is ageing. For example, the median age increased from 29 years in 1951 to 37 years in 2011-12, and will likely increase to 44 years by 2061. While the implications of an ageing population have been studied, to date there is no study investigating the impacts that population ageing will have on hearing health in New Zealand. To explore the changing population structure and estimate the burden of hearing loss in New Zealand between 2011 and 2061. Using three alternative population projections from Statistics New Zealand, we quantify the likely distribution of the population between 2011 and 2061 by age and sex. Published estimates of hearing loss stratified by age and severity of hearing loss were then applied to the population projections to highlight the potential impact that population ageing will have on hearing loss in New Zealand in the next 50 years. We estimated that there were 330,269 people aged ≥14 years with hearing loss and this would increase to 449,453 in 2061. Overall, males have a higher prevalence of hearing loss than females, and while the prevalence of hearing loss among those aged 14-49 years is expected to decrease, the prevalence among the population aged ≥70 years is expected to double between 2011 and 2061. Age, sex and geographical variations in hearing loss are expected in the next 50 years. Further research into ethnic and variations in hearing loss will be instrumental in targeting the future hearing health workforce required to accommodate these increases.

Psychometric properties and confirmatory factor analysis of the CASP-19, a measure of quality of life in early old age: the HAPIEE study

PubMed Central

Kim, Gyu Ri; Netuveli, Gopalakrishnan; Blane, David; Peasey, Anne; Malyutina, Sofia; Simonova, Galina; Kubinova, Ruzena; Pajak, Andrzej; Croezen, Simone; Bobak, Martin; Pikhart, Hynek

2015-01-01

Objectives: The aim was to assess the reliability and validity of the quality of life (QoL) instrument CASP-19, and three shorter versions of CASP-12 in large population sample of older adults from the HAPIEE (Health, Alcohol, and Psychosocial factors In Eastern Europe) study. Methods: From the Czech Republic, Russia, and Poland, 13,210 HAPIEE participants aged 50 or older completed the retirement questionnaire including CASP-19 at baseline. Three shorter 12-item versions were also derived from original 19-item instrument. Psychometric validation used confirmatory factor analysis, Cronbach's alpha, Pearson's correlation, and construct validity. Results: The second-order four-factor model of CASP-19 did not provide a good fit to the data. Two-factor CASP-12v.3 including residual covariances for negative items to account for the method effect of negative items had the best fit to the data in all countries (CFI = 0.98, TLI = 0.97, RMSEA = 0.05, and WRMR = 1.65 in the Czech Republic; 0.96, 0.94, 0.07, and 2.70 in Poland; and 0.93, 0.90, 0.08, and 3.04 in Russia). Goodness-of-fit indices for the two-factor structure were substantially better than second-order models. Conclusions: This large population-based study is the first validation study of CASP scale in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), which includes a general population sample in Russia, Poland, and the Czech Republic. The results of this study have demonstrated that the CASP-12v.3 is a valid and reliable tool for assessing QoL among adults aged 50 years or older. This version of CASP is recommended for use in future studies investigating QoL in the CEE populations. PMID:25059754

Quantifying the dynamics of field cancerization in tobacco-related head and neck cancer: a multi-scale modeling approach

PubMed Central

Ryser, Marc D.; Lee, Walter T.; Readyz, Neal E.; Leder, Kevin Z.; Foo, Jasmine

2017-01-01

High rates of local recurrence in tobacco-related head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) are commonly attributed to unresected fields of precancerous tissue. Since they are not easily detectable at the time of surgery without additional biopsies, there is a need for non-invasive methods to predict the extent and dynamics of these fields. Here we developed a spatial stochastic model of tobacco-related HNSCC at the tissue level and calibrated the model using a Bayesian framework and population-level incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. Probabilistic model analyses were performed to predict the field geometry at time of diagnosis, and model predictions of age-specific recurrence risks were tested against outcome data from SEER. The calibrated models predicted a strong dependence of the local field size on age at diagnosis, with a doubling of the expected field diameter between ages at diagnosis of 50 and 90 years, respectively. Similarly, the probability of harboring multiple, clonally unrelated fields at the time of diagnosis were found to increase substantially with patient age. Based on these findings, we hypothesized a higher recurrence risk in older compared to younger patients when treated by surgery alone; we successfully tested this hypothesis using age-stratified outcome data. Further clinical studies are needed to validate the model predictions in a patient-specific setting. This work highlights the importance of spatial structure in models of epithelial carcinogenesis, and suggests that patient age at diagnosis may be a critical predictor of the size and multiplicity of precancerous lesions. Major Findings Patient age at diagnosis was found to be a critical predictor of the size and multiplicity of precancerous lesions. This finding challenges the current one-size-fits-all approach to surgical excision margins. PMID:27913438

Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures.

PubMed

Buffoni, Giuseppe; Pasquali, Sara

2007-04-01

A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.

Accounting for age structure and spatial structure in eco-evolutionary analyses of a large, mobile vertebrate.

PubMed

Waples, Robin S; Scribner, Kim; Moore, Jennifer; Draheim, Hope; Etter, Dwayne; Boersen, Mark

2018-04-14

The idealized concept of a population is integral to ecology, evolutionary biology, and natural resource management. To make analyses tractable, most models adopt simplifying assumptions, which almost inevitably are violated by real species in nature. Here we focus on both demographic and genetic estimates of effective population size per generation (Ne), the effective number of breeders per year (Nb), and Wright's neighborhood size (NS) for black bears (Ursus americanus) that are continuously distributed in the northern lower peninsula of Michigan, USA. We illustrate practical application of recently-developed methods to account for violations of two common, simplifying assumptions about populations: 1) reproduction occurs in discrete generations, and 2) mating occurs randomly among all individuals. We use a 9-year harvest dataset of >3300 individuals, together with genetic determination of 221 parent-offspring pairs, to estimate male and female vital rates, including age-specific survival, age-specific fecundity, and age-specific variance in fecundity (for which empirical data are rare). We find strong evidence for overdispersed variance in reproductive success of same-age individuals in both sexes, and we show that constraints on litter size have a strong influence on results. We also estimate that another life-history trait that is often ignored (skip breeding by females) has a relatively modest influence, reducing Nb by 9% and increasing Ne by 3%. We conclude that isolation by distance depresses genetic estimates of Nb, which implicitly assume a randomly-mating population. Estimated demographic NS (100, based on parent-offspring dispersal) was similar to genetic NS (85, based on regression of genetic distance and geographic distance), indicating that the >36,000 km2 study area includes about 4-5 black-bear neighborhoods. Results from this expansive data set provide important insight into effects of violating assumptions when estimating evolutionary parameters for long-lived, free-ranging species. In conjunction with recently-developed analytical methodology, the ready availability of non-lethal DNA sampling methods and the ability to rapidly and cheaply survey many thousands of molecular markers should facilitate eco-evolutionary studies like this for many more species in nature.

Metapopulation epidemic models with heterogeneous mixing and travel behaviour

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Determining the pandemic potential of an emerging infectious disease and how it depends on the various epidemic and population aspects is critical for the preparation of an adequate response aimed at its control. The complex interplay between population movements in space and non-homogeneous mixing patterns have so far hindered the fundamental understanding of the conditions for spatial invasion through a general theoretical framework. To address this issue, we present an analytical modelling approach taking into account such interplay under general conditions of mobility and interactions, in the simplifying assumption of two population classes. Methods We describe a spatially structured population with non-homogeneous mixing and travel behaviour through a multi-host stochastic epidemic metapopulation model. Different population partitions, mixing patterns and mobility structures are considered, along with a specific application for the study of the role of age partition in the early spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza. Results We provide a complete mathematical formulation of the model and derive a semi-analytical expression of the threshold condition for global invasion of an emerging infectious disease in the metapopulation system. A rich solution space is found that depends on the social partition of the population, the pattern of contacts across groups and their relative social activity, the travel attitude of each class, and the topological and traffic features of the mobility network. Reducing the activity of the less social group and reducing the cross-group mixing are predicted to be the most efficient strategies for controlling the pandemic potential in the case the less active group constitutes the majority of travellers. If instead traveling is dominated by the more social class, our model predicts the existence of an optimal across-groups mixing that maximises the pandemic potential of the disease, whereas the impact of variations in the activity of each group is less important. Conclusions The proposed modelling approach introduces a theoretical framework for the study of infectious diseases spread in a population with two layers of heterogeneity relevant for the local transmission and the spatial propagation of the disease. It can be used for pandemic preparedness studies to identify adequate interventions and quantitatively estimate the corresponding required effort, as well as in an emerging epidemic situation to assess the pandemic potential of the pathogen from population and early outbreak data. PMID:24418011

Metapopulation epidemic models with heterogeneous mixing and travel behaviour.

PubMed

Apolloni, Andrea; Poletto, Chiara; Ramasco, José J; Jensen, Pablo; Colizza, Vittoria

2014-01-13

Determining the pandemic potential of an emerging infectious disease and how it depends on the various epidemic and population aspects is critical for the preparation of an adequate response aimed at its control. The complex interplay between population movements in space and non-homogeneous mixing patterns have so far hindered the fundamental understanding of the conditions for spatial invasion through a general theoretical framework. To address this issue, we present an analytical modelling approach taking into account such interplay under general conditions of mobility and interactions, in the simplifying assumption of two population classes. We describe a spatially structured population with non-homogeneous mixing and travel behaviour through a multi-host stochastic epidemic metapopulation model. Different population partitions, mixing patterns and mobility structures are considered, along with a specific application for the study of the role of age partition in the early spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza. We provide a complete mathematical formulation of the model and derive a semi-analytical expression of the threshold condition for global invasion of an emerging infectious disease in the metapopulation system. A rich solution space is found that depends on the social partition of the population, the pattern of contacts across groups and their relative social activity, the travel attitude of each class, and the topological and traffic features of the mobility network. Reducing the activity of the less social group and reducing the cross-group mixing are predicted to be the most efficient strategies for controlling the pandemic potential in the case the less active group constitutes the majority of travellers. If instead traveling is dominated by the more social class, our model predicts the existence of an optimal across-groups mixing that maximises the pandemic potential of the disease, whereas the impact of variations in the activity of each group is less important. The proposed modelling approach introduces a theoretical framework for the study of infectious diseases spread in a population with two layers of heterogeneity relevant for the local transmission and the spatial propagation of the disease. It can be used for pandemic preparedness studies to identify adequate interventions and quantitatively estimate the corresponding required effort, as well as in an emerging epidemic situation to assess the pandemic potential of the pathogen from population and early outbreak data.

Accounting for Population Structure in Gene-by-Environment Interactions in Genome-Wide Association Studies Using Mixed Models.

PubMed

Sul, Jae Hoon; Bilow, Michael; Yang, Wen-Yun; Kostem, Emrah; Furlotte, Nick; He, Dan; Eskin, Eleazar

2016-03-01

Although genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have discovered numerous novel genetic variants associated with many complex traits and diseases, those genetic variants typically explain only a small fraction of phenotypic variance. Factors that account for phenotypic variance include environmental factors and gene-by-environment interactions (GEIs). Recently, several studies have conducted genome-wide gene-by-environment association analyses and demonstrated important roles of GEIs in complex traits. One of the main challenges in these association studies is to control effects of population structure that may cause spurious associations. Many studies have analyzed how population structure influences statistics of genetic variants and developed several statistical approaches to correct for population structure. However, the impact of population structure on GEI statistics in GWASs has not been extensively studied and nor have there been methods designed to correct for population structure on GEI statistics. In this paper, we show both analytically and empirically that population structure may cause spurious GEIs and use both simulation and two GWAS datasets to support our finding. We propose a statistical approach based on mixed models to account for population structure on GEI statistics. We find that our approach effectively controls population structure on statistics for GEIs as well as for genetic variants.

Astronaut Bone Medical Standards Derived from Finite Element (FE) Models of QCT Scans from Population Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sibonga, J. D.; Feiveson, A. H.

2014-01-01

This work was accomplished in support of the Finite Element [FE] Strength Task Group, NASA Johnson Space Center [JSC], Houston, TX. This group was charged with the task of developing rules for using finite-element [FE] bone-strength measures to construct operating bands for bone health that are relevant to astronauts following exposure to spaceflight. FE modeling is a computational tool used by engineers to estimate the failure loads of complex structures. Recently, some engineers have used this tool to characterize the failure loads of the hip in population studies that also monitored fracture outcomes. A Directed Research Task was authorized in July, 2012 to investigate FE data from these population studies to derive these proposed standards of bone health as a function of age and gender. The proposed standards make use of an FE-based index that integrates multiple contributors to bone strength, an expanded evaluation that is critical after an astronaut is exposed to spaceflight. The current index of bone health used by NASA is the measurement of areal BMD. There was a concern voiced by a research and clinical advisory panel that the sole use of areal BMD would be insufficient to fully evaluate the effects of spaceflight on the hip. Hence, NASA may not have a full understanding of fracture risk, both during and after a mission, and may be poorly estimating in-flight countermeasure efficacy. The FE Strength Task Group - composed of principal investigators of the aforementioned population studies and of FE modelers -donated some of its population QCT data to estimate of hip bone strength by FE modeling for this specific purpose. Consequently, Human Health Countermeasures [HHC] has compiled a dataset of FE hip strengths, generated by a single FE modeling approach, from human subjects (approx.1060) with ages covering the age range of the astronauts. The dataset has been analyzed to generate a set of FE strength cutoffs for the following scenarios: a) Qualify an applicant for astronaut candidacy, b) Qualify an astronaut for a long-duration (LD) mission, c) Qualify a veteran LD astronaut for a second LD mission, and d) Establish a non-permissible, minimum hip strength following a given mission architecture. This abstract will present the FE-based standards accepted by the FE Strength Task Group for its recommendation to HHC in January 2015.

Time in tortoiseshell: a bomb radiocarbon-validated chronology in sea turtle scutes.

PubMed

Van Houtan, Kyle S; Andrews, Allen H; Jones, T Todd; Murakawa, Shawn K K; Hagemann, Molly E

2016-01-13

Some of the most basic questions of sea turtle life history are also the most elusive. Many uncertainties surround lifespan, growth rates, maturity and spatial structure, yet these are critical factors in assessing population status. Here we examine the keratinized hard tissues of the hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) carapace and use bomb radiocarbon dating to estimate growth and maturity. Scutes have an established dietary record, yet the large keratin deposits of hawksbills evoke a reliable chronology. We sectioned, polished and imaged posterior marginal scutes from 36 individual hawksbills representing all life stages, several Pacific populations and spanning eight decades. We counted the apparent growth lines, microsampled along growth contours and calibrated Δ(14)C values to reference coral series. We fit von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) models to the results, producing a range of age estimates for each turtle. We find Hawaii hawksbills deposit eight growth lines annually (range 5-14), with model ensembles producing a somatic growth parameter (k) of 0.13 (range 0.1-0.2) and first breeding at 29 years (range 23-36). Recent bomb radiocarbon values also suggest declining trophic status. Together, our results may reflect long-term changes in the benthic community structure of Hawaii reefs, and possibly shed light on the critical population status for Hawaii hawksbills. © 2016 The Author(s).