Science.gov

Sample records for aged model samples

  1. Spectroscopic age and metallicity for a sample of Globular Clusters from Stellar Population Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stock, M. J.; Calderón, P.

    2009-05-01

    We present spectroscopic age and metallicity predictions for a sample of 20 Globular Clusters in the massive E0 galaxy NGC 1407 (data from Cenarro et al. 2007, AJ, 134, 391) and for the Galacic Globular Clusters data from the Library of Integrated Spectra of Galactic Globular Clusters (GGC's) from Schiavon et al. (2005, ApJS, 160, 163) including the widely studied 47 Tuc cluster. Using index-index plots we compared model Single Stellar Populations (SSP's) spectra to the integrated spectra of both samples of Globular Clusters using high resolution line strength indices (Stock, in prep.) and the syntethic SSP's models from P. Coelho (2007, private comm.) as well as the CB07 solar models. For the GC's in NGC1407, the predictions from the syntethic models's with [α /Fe]=0.4 are in good agreement with the results from Cenarro et al. (2007, AJ, 134, 391), taking into account that the dispersion is partially due to the fact that the mean [α/Fe] ratio of the sample is ≈ 0.3 dex, resulting in younger ages and lower metallicities (Thomas et al. 2003, A&A, 401, 429). We observe a bimodal distribution of the Fe4383+ index which is in turn an indicator of metallicity, also seen in Cenarro et al. (2005). The CB07 models predict ages that are widely spread over the plot yielding ages greater than 14 Gyrs. The metallicity derived from these models are very low for almost all the objects (Z < 0.008). The distribution of the GGC's on the syntethic model grid shows a trend in the sense that metal poor clusters are younger than metal rich ones, but this effect might not be real (de Angeli et al. 2005, AJ, 130, 116). For 47 Tuc we estimate an age of ≈ 10 Gyr, and metallicity Z < 0.011 (<[Fe/H]= -0.5) which are both comparable with the values reported in the literature (Carretta et al. 2000; Liu & Chaboyer 2000, ApJ, 544, 818; Schiavon et al. 2002, ApJ, 580, 873; Gratton et al. 2003, A&A, 408, 529).

  2. Circadian typology, age, and the alternative five-factor personality model in an adult women sample.

    PubMed

    Muro, Anna; Gomà-i-Freixanet, Montserrat; Adan, Ana; Cladellas, Ramon

    2011-10-01

    Research on personality and circadian typology indicates evening-type women are more impulsive and novelty seeking, neither types are more anxious, and morning types tend to be more active, conscientious, and persistent. The purpose of this study is to examine the differences between circadian typologies in the light of the Zuckerman's Alternative Five-Factor Model (AFFM) of personality, which has a strong biological basis, in an adult sample of 412 women 18 to 55 yrs of age. The authors found morning-type women had significant higher scores than evening-type and neither-type women on Activity, and its subscales General Activity and Work Activity. In contrast, evening-type women scored significantly higher than morning-type women on Aggression-Hostility, Impulsive Sensation Seeking, and its subscale Sensation Seeking. In all groups, results were independent of age. These findings are in accordance with those previously obtained in female student samples and add new data on the AFFM. The need of using personality models that are biologically based in the study of circadian rhythms is discussed.

  3. Developing a Comprehensive Model of Risk and Protective Factors That Can Predict Spelling at Age Seven: Findings from a Community Sample of Victorian Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Serry, Tanya Anne; Castles, Anne; Mensah, Fiona K.; Bavin, Edith L.; Eadie, Patricia; Pezic, Angela; Prior, Margot; Bretherton, Lesley; Reilly, Sheena

    2015-01-01

    The paper reports on a study designed to develop a risk model that can best predict single-word spelling in seven-year-old children when they were aged 4 and 5. Test measures, personal characteristics and environmental influences were all considered as variables from a community sample of 971 children. Strong concurrent correlations were found…

  4. Modeled ground water age distributions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Woolfenden, Linda R.; Ginn, Timothy R.

    2009-01-01

    The age of ground water in any given sample is a distributed quantity representing distributed provenance (in space and time) of the water. Conventional analysis of tracers such as unstable isotopes or anthropogenic chemical species gives discrete or binary measures of the presence of water of a given age. Modeled ground water age distributions provide a continuous measure of contributions from different recharge sources to aquifers. A numerical solution of the ground water age equation of Ginn (1999) was tested both on a hypothetical simplified one-dimensional flow system and under real world conditions. Results from these simulations yield the first continuous distributions of ground water age using this model. Complete age distributions as a function of one and two space dimensions were obtained from both numerical experiments. Simulations in the test problem produced mean ages that were consistent with the expected value at the end of the model domain for all dispersivity values tested, although the mean ages for the two highest dispersivity values deviated slightly from the expected value. Mean ages in the dispersionless case also were consistent with the expected mean ages throughout the physical model domain. Simulations under real world conditions for three dispersivity values resulted in decreasing mean age with increasing dispersivity. This likely is a consequence of an edge effect. However, simulations for all three dispersivity values tested were mass balanced and stable demonstrating that the solution of the ground water age equation can provide estimates of water mass density distributions over age under real world conditions.

  5. Degradation process of lead chromate in paintings by Vincent van Gogh studied by means of synchrotron X-ray spectromicroscopy and related methods. 1. Artificially aged model samples.

    PubMed

    Monico, Letizia; Van der Snickt, Geert; Janssens, Koen; De Nolf, Wout; Miliani, Costanza; Verbeeck, Johan; Tian, He; Tan, Haiyan; Dik, Joris; Radepont, Marie; Cotte, Marine

    2011-02-15

    On several paintings by artists of the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th Century a darkening of the original yellow areas, painted with the chrome yellow pigment (PbCrO(4), PbCrO(4)·xPbSO(4), or PbCrO(4)·xPbO) is observed. The most famous of these are the various Sunflowers paintings Vincent van Gogh made during his career. In the first part of this work, we attempt to elucidate the degradation process of chrome yellow by studying artificially aged model samples. In view of the very thin (1-3 μm) alteration layers that are formed, high lateral resolution spectroscopic methods such as microscopic X-ray absorption near edge (μ-XANES), X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (μ-XRF), and electron energy loss spectrometry (EELS) were employed. Some of these use synchrotron radiation (SR). Additionally, microscopic SR X-ray diffraction (SR μ-XRD), μ-Raman, and mid-FTIR spectroscopy were employed to completely characterize the samples. The formation of Cr(III) compounds at the surface of the chrome yellow paint layers is particularly observed in one aged model sample taken from a historic paint tube (ca. 1914). About two-thirds of the chromium that is present at the surface has reduced from the hexavalent to the trivalent state. The EELS and μ-XANES spectra are consistent with the presence of Cr(2)O(3)·2H(2)O (viridian). Moreover, as demonstrated by μ-XANES, the presence of another Cr(III) compound, such as either Cr(2)(SO(4))(3)·H(2)O or (CH(3)CO(2))(7)Cr(3)(OH)(2) [chromium(III) acetate hydroxide], is likely.

  6. Cone sampling array models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ahumada, Albert J., Jr.; Poirson, Allen

    1987-01-01

    A model is described for positioning cones in the retina. Each cone has a circular disk of influence, and the disks are tightly packed outward from the center. This model has three parameters that can vary with eccentricity: the mean radius of the cone disk, the standard deviation of the cone disk radius, and the standard deviation of postpacking jitter. Estimates for these parameters out to 1.6 deg are found by using measurements reported by Hirsch and Hylton (1985) and Hirsch and Miller (1987) of the positions of the cone inner segments of an adult macaque. The estimation is based on fitting measures of variation in local intercone distances, and the fit to these measures is good.

  7. The Influence of Sampling Density on Bayesian Age-Depth Models and Paleoclimatic Reconstructions - Lessons Learned from Lake Titicaca - Bolivia/Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salenbien, W.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Guedron, S.

    2014-12-01

    Lake Titicaca is one of the most important archives of paleoclimate in tropical South America, and prior studies have elucidated patterns of climate variation at varied temporal scales over the past 0.5 Ma. Yet, slow sediment accumulation rates in the main deeper basin of the lake have precluded analysis of the lake's most recent history at high resolution. To obtain a paleoclimate record of the last few millennia at multi-decadal resolution, we obtained five short cores, ranging from 139 to 181 cm in length, from the shallower Wiñaymarka sub-basin of of Lake Titicaca, where sedimentation rates are higher than in the lake's main basin. Selected cores have been analyzed for their geochemical signature by scanning XRF, diatom stratigraphy, sedimentology, and for 14C age dating. A total of 72 samples were 14C-dated using a Gas Ion Source automated high-throughput method for carbonate samples (mainly Littoridina sp. and Taphius montanus gastropod shells) at NOSAMS (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute) with an analytical precision higher than 2%. The method has lower analytical precision compared with traditional AMS radiocarbon dating, but the lower cost enables analysis of a larger number of samples, and the error associated with the lower precision is relatively small for younger samples (< ~8,000 years). A 172-cm-long core was divided into centimeter long sections, and 47 14C dates were obtained from 1-cm intervals, averaging one date every 3-4 cm. The other cores were radiocarbon dated with a sparser sampling density that focused on visual unconformities and shell beds. The high-resolution radiocarbon analysis reveals complex sedimentation patterns in visually continuous sections, with abundant indicators of bioturbated or reworked sediments and periods of very rapid sediment accumulation. These features are not evident in the sparser sampling strategy but have significant implications for reconstructing past lake level and paleoclimatic history.

  8. High-Precision Plutonium Isotopic Compositions Measured on Los Alamos National Laboratory’s General’s Tanks Samples: Bearing on Model Ages, Reactor Modelling, and Sources of Material. Further Discussion of Chronometry

    SciTech Connect

    Spencer, Khalil J.; Rim, Jung Ho; Porterfield, Donivan R.; Roback, Robert Clifford; Boukhalfa, Hakim; Stanley, Floyd E.

    2015-06-29

    In this study, we re-analyzed late-1940’s, Manhattan Project era Plutonium-rich sludge samples recovered from the ''General’s Tanks'' located within the nation’s oldest Plutonium processing facility, Technical Area 21. These samples were initially characterized by lower accuracy, and lower precision mass spectrometric techniques. We report here information that was previously not discernable: the two tanks contain isotopically distinct Pu not only for the major (i.e., 240Pu, 239Pu) but trace (238Pu ,241Pu, 242Pu) isotopes. Revised isotopics slightly changed the calculated 241Am-241Pu model ages and interpretations.

  9. U-Th/He Ages of HSDP-2 Submarine Samples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peterson, B. T.; Aciego, S. M.; Kennedy, B. M.; Depaolo, D. J.

    2008-12-01

    Hawaiian lavas have been used to investigate the life-cycles of hotspot-traversing volcanoes. The ~ 3500m core recovered by the Hawaii Scientific Drill Project, phase 2 (HSDP-2) has proven invaluable in refinement of models that link plume structures and melting rates to subaerial growth and geochemical evolution. Accurate age dating of lavas is critical in linking geochemical observations to plume characteristics; however, young ages and potassium-poor lavas limit the precision of argon methods. The U-Th/He method on olivine phenocrysts has been used to successfully date Hawaiian post-shield alkali basalts and flood basalts from the Snake River Plain. We are applying the method to olivine-rich lithologies in the HSDP-2 core in an attempt to gain further information about the growth rates of Hawaiian volcanoes. Preliminary results indicate that the method could help refine the flow chronology, but that modifications to the analysis procedure may be necessary to optimize the results. A subaerial Mauna Kea tholeiitic basalt from 528m depth yields a U-Th/He age of 485 +/- 100 ka (sample SR0222), slightly older than expected based on previous determinations on stratigraphically bounding flows by the argon isochron method (Sharp et al., Gcubed, 2005). A submarine hyaloclastite sample from 2931m depth (SR930) yields a preliminary age of 650+/-100 ka, which agrees well with previous Ar measurements. A pillow lava, SR0964, was also investigated, but it yielded a complicated He release pattern and no age can be obtained. U and Th concentrations in olivine separates from all three samples are low (2.6 - 5.2 ppb U; 4.5 - 8.0 ppb Th). The submarine samples appear to have a substantial amount of magmatic helium still remaining in the olivine after in vacuo crushing, as evidenced by high R/Ra values in gas released at high temperature. Residual gas left after crushing may be up to 85% magmatic, which makes the determination of radiogenic He less accurate. Sulfur contents of

  10. Aging and Information Seeking: Patterns in Sampling of Sucrose Solutions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shapira, N.; Kushnir, T.

    1985-01-01

    Explored age-related strategies of information seeking and decision making. Young and old female participants (N=38) engaged in detecting the presence of sucrose in solutions of various concentrations. Compared to young people, the aged sampled more and had a higher detection threshold, indicating higher requirements for information. (BH)

  11. ALL AGES LEAD MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) Model for Lead in Children (version 0.99d) was released in March 1994, and has been widely accepted in the risk assessment community as a tool for implementing the site specific risk assessment process when the issue is childhood...

  12. Age models and their uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marwan, N.; Rehfeld, K.; Goswami, B.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Kurths, J.

    2012-04-01

    The usefulness of a proxy record is largely dictated by accuracy and precision of its age model, i.e., its depth-age relationship. Only if age model uncertainties are minimized correlations or lead-lag relations can be reliably studied. Moreover, due to different dating strategies (14C, U-series, OSL dating, or counting of varves), dating errors or diverging age models lead to difficulties in comparing different palaeo proxy records. Uncertainties in the age model are even more important if an exact dating is necessary in order to calculate, e.g., data series of flux or rates (like dust flux records, pollen deposition rates). Several statistical approaches exist to handle the dating uncertainties themselves and to estimate the age-depth relationship. Nevertheless, linear interpolation is still the most commonly used method for age modeling. The uncertainties of a certain event at a given time due to the dating errors are often even completely neglected. Here we demonstrate the importance of considering dating errors and implications for the interpretation of variations in palaeo-climate proxy records from stalagmites (U-series dated). We present a simple approach for estimating age models and their confidence levels based on Monte Carlo methods and non-linear interpolation. This novel algorithm also allows for removing age reversals. Our approach delivers a time series of a proxy record with a value range for each age depth also, if desired, on an equidistant time axis. The algorithm is implemented in interactive scripts for use with MATLAB®, Octave, and FreeMat.

  13. Spin models and boson sampling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia Ripoll, Juan Jose; Peropadre, Borja; Aspuru-Guzik, Alan

    Aaronson & Arkhipov showed that predicting the measurement statistics of random linear optics circuits (i.e. boson sampling) is a classically hard problem for highly non-classical input states. A typical boson-sampling circuit requires N single photon emitters and M photodetectors, and it is a natural idea to rely on few-level systems for both tasks. Indeed, we show that 2M two-level emitters at the input and output ports of a general M-port interferometer interact via an XY-model with collective dissipation and a large number of dark states that could be used for quantum information storage. More important is the fact that, when we neglect dissipation, the resulting long-range XY spin-spin interaction is equivalent to boson sampling under the same conditions that make boson sampling efficient. This allows efficient implementations of boson sampling using quantum simulators & quantum computers. We acknowledge support from Spanish Mineco Project FIS2012-33022, CAM Research Network QUITEMAD+ and EU FP7 FET-Open Project PROMISCE.

  14. Aging Research Using Mouse Models

    PubMed Central

    Ackert-Bicknell, Cheryl L.; Anderson, Laura; Sheehan, Susan; Hill, Warren G.; Chang, Bo; Churchill, Gary A.; Chesler, Elissa J.; Korstanje, Ron; Peters, Luanne L.

    2015-01-01

    Despite the dramatic increase in human lifespan over the past century, there remains pronounced variability in “health-span”, or the period of time in which one is generally healthy and free of disease. Much of the variability in health-span and lifespan is thought to be genetic in origin. Understanding the genetic mechanisms of aging and identifying ways to boost longevity is a primary goal in aging research. Here, we describe a pipeline of phenotypic assays for assessing mouse models of aging. This pipeline includes behavior/cognition testing, body composition analysis, and tests of kidney function, hematopoiesis, immune function and physical parameters. We also describe study design methods for assessing lifespan and health-span, and other important considerations when conducting aging research in the laboratory mouse. The tools and assays provided can assist researchers with understanding the correlative relationships between age-associated phenotypes and, ultimately, the role of specific genes in the aging process. PMID:26069080

  15. Degradation process of lead chromate in paintings by Vincent van Gogh studied by means of spectromicroscopic methods. 4. Artificial aging of model samples of co-precipitates of lead chromate and lead sulfate.

    PubMed

    Monico, Letizia; Janssens, Koen; Miliani, Costanza; Van der Snickt, Geert; Brunetti, Brunetto Giovanni; Cestelli Guidi, Mariangela; Radepont, Marie; Cotte, Marine

    2013-01-15

    Previous investigations about the darkening of chrome yellow pigments revealed that this form of alteration is attributable to a reduction of the original Cr(VI) to Cr(III), and that the presence of sulfur-containing compounds, most often sulfates, plays a key role during this process. We recently demonstrated that different crystal forms of chrome yellow pigments (PbCrO(4) and PbCr(1-x)S(x)O(4)) are present in paintings by Vincent van Gogh. In the present work, we show how both the chemical composition and the crystalline structure of lead chromate-based pigments influence their stability. For this purpose, oil model samples made with in-house synthesized powders of PbCrO(4) and PbCr(1-x)S(x)O(4) were artificially aged and characterized. We observed a profound darkening only for those paint models made with PbCr(1-x)S(x)O(4), rich in SO(4)(2-) (x ≥ 0.4), and orthorhombic phases (>30 wt %). Cr and S K-edge micro X-ray absorption near edge structure investigations revealed in an unequivocal manner the formation of up to about 60% of Cr(III)-species in the outer layer of the most altered samples; conversely, independent of the paint models' chemical composition, no change in the S-oxidation state was observed. Analyses employing UV-visible diffuse reflectance and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy were performed on unaged and aged model samples in order to obtain additional information on the physicochemical changes induced by the aging treatment.

  16. Predicting Gang Fight Participation in a General Youth Sample via the HEW Youth Development Model's Community Program Impact Scales, Age, and Sex.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Truckenmiller, James L.

    The accurate prediction of violence has been in the spotlight of critical concern in recent years. To investigate the relative predictive power of peer pressure, youth perceived negative labeling, youth perceived access to educational and occupational roles, social alienation, self-esteem, sex, and age with regard to gang fight participation…

  17. Accuracy and sampling error of two age estimation techniques using rib histomorphometry on a modern sample.

    PubMed

    García-Donas, Julieta G; Dyke, Jeffrey; Paine, Robert R; Nathena, Despoina; Kranioti, Elena F

    2016-02-01

    Most age estimation methods are proven problematic when applied in highly fragmented skeletal remains. Rib histomorphometry is advantageous in such cases; yet it is vital to test and revise existing techniques particularly when used in legal settings (Crowder and Rosella, 2007). This study tested Stout & Paine (1992) and Stout et al. (1994) histological age estimation methods on a Modern Greek sample using different sampling sites. Six left 4th ribs of known age and sex were selected from a modern skeletal collection. Each rib was cut into three equal segments. Two thin sections were acquired from each segment. A total of 36 thin sections were prepared and analysed. Four variables (cortical area, intact and fragmented osteon density and osteon population density) were calculated for each section and age was estimated according to Stout & Paine (1992) and Stout et al. (1994). The results showed that both methods produced a systemic underestimation of the individuals (to a maximum of 43 years) although a general improvement in accuracy levels was observed when applying the Stout et al. (1994) formula. There is an increase of error rates with increasing age with the oldest individual showing extreme differences between real age and estimated age. Comparison of the different sampling sites showed small differences between the estimated ages suggesting that any fragment of the rib could be used without introducing significant error. Yet, a larger sample should be used to confirm these results.

  18. Accuracy and sampling error of two age estimation techniques using rib histomorphometry on a modern sample.

    PubMed

    García-Donas, Julieta G; Dyke, Jeffrey; Paine, Robert R; Nathena, Despoina; Kranioti, Elena F

    2016-02-01

    Most age estimation methods are proven problematic when applied in highly fragmented skeletal remains. Rib histomorphometry is advantageous in such cases; yet it is vital to test and revise existing techniques particularly when used in legal settings (Crowder and Rosella, 2007). This study tested Stout & Paine (1992) and Stout et al. (1994) histological age estimation methods on a Modern Greek sample using different sampling sites. Six left 4th ribs of known age and sex were selected from a modern skeletal collection. Each rib was cut into three equal segments. Two thin sections were acquired from each segment. A total of 36 thin sections were prepared and analysed. Four variables (cortical area, intact and fragmented osteon density and osteon population density) were calculated for each section and age was estimated according to Stout & Paine (1992) and Stout et al. (1994). The results showed that both methods produced a systemic underestimation of the individuals (to a maximum of 43 years) although a general improvement in accuracy levels was observed when applying the Stout et al. (1994) formula. There is an increase of error rates with increasing age with the oldest individual showing extreme differences between real age and estimated age. Comparison of the different sampling sites showed small differences between the estimated ages suggesting that any fragment of the rib could be used without introducing significant error. Yet, a larger sample should be used to confirm these results. PMID:26698389

  19. Absolute ages from crater statistics: Using radiometric ages of Martian samples for determining the Martian cratering chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Neukum, G.

    1988-01-01

    In the absence of dates derived from rock samples, impact crater frequencies are commonly used to date Martian surface units. All models for absolute dating rely on the lunar cratering chronology and on the validity of its extrapolation to Martian conditions. Starting from somewhat different lunar chronologies, rather different Martian cratering chronologies are found in the literature. Currently favored models are compared. The differences at old ages are significant, the differences at younger ages are considerable and give absolute ages for the same crater frequencies as different as a factor of 3. The total uncertainty could be much higher, though, since the ratio of lunar to Martian cratering rate which is of basic importance in the models is believed to be known no better than within a factor of 2. Thus, it is of crucial importance for understanding the the evolution of Mars and determining the sequence of events to establish an unambiguous Martian cratering chronology from crater statistics in combination with clean radiometric ages of returned Martian samples. For the dating goal, rocks should be as pristine as possible from a geologically simple area with a one-stage emplacement history of the local formation. A minimum of at least one highland site for old ages, two intermediate-aged sites, and one very young site is needed.

  20. Experimental validation of plutonium ageing by Monte Carlo correlated sampling

    SciTech Connect

    Litaize, O.; Bernard, D.; Santamarina, A.

    2006-07-01

    Integral measurements of Plutonium Ageing were performed in two homogeneous MOX cores (MISTRAL2 and MISTRALS) of the French MISTRAL Programme between 1996 and year 2000. The analysis of the MISTRAL2 experiment with JEF-2.2 nuclear data library high-lightened an underestimation of {sup 241}Am capture cross section. The next experiment (MISTRALS) did not conclude in the same way. This paper present a new analysis performed with the recent JEFF-3.1 library and a Monte Carlo perturbation method (correlated sampling) available in the French TRIPOLI4 code. (authors)

  1. Age estimation using carpals: study of a Slovenian sample to test Cameriere's method.

    PubMed

    Cameriere, Roberto; Ferrante, Luigi; Ermenc, Branko; Mirtella, Dora; Strus, Katja

    2008-01-30

    Carpals are often used as age indicators. In a recent study, Cameriere et al. studied the use of the ratio between the total area of carpal bones and epiphyses of the ulna and radius (Bo) and carpals (Ca) as age indicators. The present study, of a sample of 158 Slovenian children and adolescents aged between 6 and 16 years, focused on analysing the best regression for age estimation. The regression model yielded the following equation: age=-3.411+0.942 g+20.927(Bo/Ca), and explained 91.6% of total variance (R(2)=0.916). The median of the absolute values of residuals (observed age minus predicted age) was 0.09 years, with a quartile deviation of 0.786 years, and a standard error of estimate of 0.658 years. Comparisons between the previous equation referring to Slovenian children and the equivalent linear equation proposed by Cameriere et al. did not reveal any significant differences between the intercepts and slopes of the two linear models. These results suggested a common regression model for both Italian and Slovenian samples. The common regression model, describing age as a linear function of gender and Bo/Ca ratio, yielded the following linear regression formula: age=-2.907+0.408 g+20.757(Bo/Ca). This model explained 86% of total variance (R(2)=0.86). The median of the absolute values of residuals (observed age minus predicted age) was 0.02 years, with a quartile deviation of 1.02 years and a standard error of estimate of 0.96 years.

  2. Parametric models for samples of random functions

    SciTech Connect

    Grigoriu, M.

    2015-09-15

    A new class of parametric models, referred to as sample parametric models, is developed for random elements that match sample rather than the first two moments and/or other global properties of these elements. The models can be used to characterize, e.g., material properties at small scale in which case their samples represent microstructures of material specimens selected at random from a population. The samples of the proposed models are elements of finite-dimensional vector spaces spanned by samples, eigenfunctions of Karhunen–Loève (KL) representations, or modes of singular value decompositions (SVDs). The implementation of sample parametric models requires knowledge of the probability laws of target random elements. Numerical examples including stochastic processes and random fields are used to demonstrate the construction of sample parametric models, assess their accuracy, and illustrate how these models can be used to solve efficiently stochastic equations.

  3. 40Ar/39Ar age spectra of some undisturbed terrestrial samples

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brent, Dalrymple G.; Lanphere, M.A.

    1974-01-01

    40Ar/39Ar age spectra and 40Ar/36Ar vs 39Ar/36Ar isochrons were determined by incremental heating for 11 terrestrial rocks and minerals whose geology indicates that they represent essentially undisturbed systems. The samples include muscovite, biotite, hornblende, sanidine, plagioclase, dacite, diabase and basalt and range in age from 40 to 1700 m.y. For each sample, the 40Ar/39Ar ratios, corrected for atmospheric and neutron-generated argon isotopes, are the same for most of the gas fractions released and the age spectra, which show pronounced plateaus, thus are consistent with models previously proposed for undisturbed samples. Plateau ages and isochron ages calculated using plateau age fractions are concordant and appear to be meaningful estimates of the crystallization and cooling ages of these samples. Seemingly anomalous age spectrum points can be attributed entirely to small amounts of previously unrecognized argon loss and to gas fractions that contain too small (less than 2 per cent) a proportion of the 39Ar released to be geologically significant. The use of a quantitative abscissa for age spectrum diagrams is recommended so that the size of each gas fraction is readily apparent. Increments containing less than about 4-5 per cent of the total 39Ar released should be interpreted cautiously. Both the age spectrum and isochron methods of data reduction for incremental heating experiments are worthwhile, as each gives slightly different but complementary information about the sample from the same basic data. Use of a least-squares fit that allows for correlated errors is recommended for 40Ar/36Ar vs 39Ar/36Ar isochrons. The results indicate that the 40Ar/39Ar incremental heating technique can be used to distinguish disturbed from undisturbed rock and mineral systems and will be a valuable geochronological tool in geologically complex terranes. ?? 1994.

  4. Improved age determination of blood and teeth samples using a selected set of DNA methylation markers

    PubMed Central

    Kamalandua, Aubeline

    2015-01-01

    Age estimation from DNA methylation markers has seen an exponential growth of interest, not in the least from forensic scientists. The current published assays, however, can still be improved by lowering the number of markers in the assay and by providing more accurate models to predict chronological age. From the published literature we selected 4 age-associated genes (ASPA, PDE4C, ELOVL2, and EDARADD) and determined CpG methylation levels from 206 blood samples of both deceased and living individuals (age range: 0–91 years). This data was subsequently used to compare prediction accuracy with both linear and non-linear regression models. A quadratic regression model in which the methylation levels of ELOVL2 were squared showed the highest accuracy with a Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) between chronological age and predicted age of 3.75 years and an adjusted R2 of 0.95. No difference in accuracy was observed for samples obtained either from living and deceased individuals or between the 2 genders. In addition, 29 teeth from different individuals (age range: 19–70 years) were analyzed using the same set of markers resulting in a MAD of 4.86 years and an adjusted R2 of 0.74. Cross validation of the results obtained from blood samples demonstrated the robustness and reproducibility of the assay. In conclusion, the set of 4 CpG DNA methylation markers is capable of producing highly accurate age predictions for blood samples from deceased and living individuals PMID:26280308

  5. [Experimental models of human skin aging].

    PubMed

    Nikolakis, G; Zoschke, C; Makrantonaki, E; Hausmann, C; Schäfer-Korting, M; Zouboulis, C C

    2016-02-01

    The skin is a representative model for the study of human aging. Despite the high regenerative capacity of the skin, skin physiology changes over the course of life. Medical and cosmetic research is trying to prevent aging, to slow, to stop, or to reverse it. Effects of age-related DNA damage and of changing skin structure on pharmacological parameters are largely unknown. This review article summarizes the state of scientific knowledge in the field of experimental models of human skin aging and shows approaches to improve organotypic skin models, to develop predictive models of aging, and improve aging research.

  6. [Experimental models of human skin aging].

    PubMed

    Nikolakis, G; Zoschke, C; Makrantonaki, E; Hausmann, C; Schäfer-Korting, M; Zouboulis, C C

    2016-02-01

    The skin is a representative model for the study of human aging. Despite the high regenerative capacity of the skin, skin physiology changes over the course of life. Medical and cosmetic research is trying to prevent aging, to slow, to stop, or to reverse it. Effects of age-related DNA damage and of changing skin structure on pharmacological parameters are largely unknown. This review article summarizes the state of scientific knowledge in the field of experimental models of human skin aging and shows approaches to improve organotypic skin models, to develop predictive models of aging, and improve aging research. PMID:26743051

  7. Phylogenetic analysis accounting for age-dependent death and sampling with applications to epidemics.

    PubMed

    Lambert, Amaury; Alexander, Helen K; Stadler, Tanja

    2014-07-01

    The reconstruction of phylogenetic trees based on viral genetic sequence data sequentially sampled from an epidemic provides estimates of the past transmission dynamics, by fitting epidemiological models to these trees. To our knowledge, none of the epidemiological models currently used in phylogenetics can account for recovery rates and sampling rates dependent on the time elapsed since transmission, i.e. age of infection. Here we introduce an epidemiological model where infectives leave the epidemic, by either recovery or sampling, after some random time which may follow an arbitrary distribution. We derive an expression for the likelihood of the phylogenetic tree of sampled infectives under our general epidemiological model. The analytic concept developed in this paper will facilitate inference of past epidemiological dynamics and provide an analytical framework for performing very efficient simulations of phylogenetic trees under our model. The main idea of our analytic study is that the non-Markovian epidemiological model giving rise to phylogenetic trees growing vertically as time goes by can be represented by a Markovian "coalescent point process" growing horizontally by the sequential addition of pairs of coalescence and sampling times. As examples, we discuss two special cases of our general model, described in terms of influenza and HIV epidemics. Though phrased in epidemiological terms, our framework can also be used for instance to fit macroevolutionary models to phylogenies of extant and extinct species, accounting for general species lifetime distributions. PMID:24607743

  8. The Knowledge of Memory Aging Questionnaire: Factor Structure and Correlates in a Lifespan Sample

    PubMed Central

    Calamia, Matthew; Reese-Melancon, Celinda; Cherry, Katie E.; Hawley, Karri S.; Jazwinski, S. Michal

    2016-01-01

    The authors examined the factor structure of the Knowledge of Memory Aging Questionnaire (KMAQ) [1] using confirmatory factor analysis in a lifespan sample of 933 individuals who ranged in age from 18 to 101. Participants were college students at Louisiana State University and adults from the community enrolled in the Louisiana Healthy Aging Study (LHAS). A two-factor solution was expected, consistent with the normal and pathological memory aging dimensions that comprise the KMAQ. A bi-factor solution with items loading on a general response bias factor and either a normal or pathological knowledge-specific factor showed good model fit. Knowledge scores were correlated with demographic and cognitive performance variables. Implications of these data for clinical settings and research are considered. PMID:27505021

  9. The Knowledge of Memory Aging Questionnaire: Factor Structure and Correlates in a Lifespan Sample.

    PubMed

    Calamia, Matthew; Reese-Melancon, Celinda; Cherry, Katie E; Hawley, Karri S; Jazwinski, S Michal

    2016-03-01

    The authors examined the factor structure of the Knowledge of Memory Aging Questionnaire (KMAQ) [1] using confirmatory factor analysis in a lifespan sample of 933 individuals who ranged in age from 18 to 101. Participants were college students at Louisiana State University and adults from the community enrolled in the Louisiana Healthy Aging Study (LHAS). A two-factor solution was expected, consistent with the normal and pathological memory aging dimensions that comprise the KMAQ. A bi-factor solution with items loading on a general response bias factor and either a normal or pathological knowledge-specific factor showed good model fit. Knowledge scores were correlated with demographic and cognitive performance variables. Implications of these data for clinical settings and research are considered. PMID:27505021

  10. Aging Successfully: A Four-Factor Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Pai-Lin; Lan, William; Yen, Tung-Wen

    2011-01-01

    The study was designed to validate a model for a successful aging process and examine the gender differences in the aging process. Three hundred twelve participants who were 65 or older completed a Taiwan Social Change Survey that measures four factors that define successful aging process: including physical, psychological, social support, and…

  11. Functional Error Models to Accelerate Nested Sampling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Josset, L.; Elsheikh, A. H.; Demyanov, V.; Lunati, I.

    2014-12-01

    The main challenge in groundwater problems is the reliance on large numbers of unknown parameters with wide rage of associated uncertainties. To translate this uncertainty to quantities of interest (for instance the concentration of pollutant in a drinking well), a large number of forward flow simulations is required. To make the problem computationally tractable, Josset et al. (2013, 2014) introduced the concept of functional error models. It consists in two elements: a proxy model that is cheaper to evaluate than the full physics flow solver and an error model to account for the missing physics. The coupling of the proxy model and the error models provides reliable predictions that approximate the full physics model's responses. The error model is tailored to the problem at hand by building it for the question of interest. It follows a typical approach in machine learning where both the full physics and proxy models are evaluated for a training set (subset of realizations) and the set of responses is used to construct the error model using functional data analysis. Once the error model is devised, a prediction of the full physics response for a new geostatistical realization can be obtained by computing the proxy response and applying the error model. We propose the use of functional error models in a Bayesian inference context by combining it to the Nested Sampling (Skilling 2006; El Sheikh et al. 2013, 2014). Nested Sampling offers a mean to compute the Bayesian Evidence by transforming the multidimensional integral into a 1D integral. The algorithm is simple: starting with an active set of samples, at each iteration, the sample with the lowest likelihood is kept aside and replaced by a sample of higher likelihood. The main challenge is to find this sample of higher likelihood. We suggest a new approach: first the active set is sampled, both proxy and full physics models are run and the functional error model is build. Then, at each iteration of the Nested

  12. Estimating Neuronal Ageing with Hidden Markov Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Bing; Pham, Tuan D.

    2011-06-01

    Neuronal degeneration is widely observed in normal ageing, meanwhile the neurode-generative disease like Alzheimer's disease effects neuronal degeneration in a faster way which is considered as faster ageing. Early intervention of such disease could benefit subjects with potentials of positive clinical outcome, therefore, early detection of disease related brain structural alteration is required. In this paper, we propose a computational approach for modelling the MRI-based structure alteration with ageing using hidden Markov model. The proposed hidden Markov model based brain structural model encodes intracortical tissue/fluid distribution using discrete wavelet transformation and vector quantization. Further, it captures gray matter volume loss, which is capable of reflecting subtle intracortical changes with ageing. Experiments were carried out on healthy subjects to validate its accuracy and robustness. Results have shown its ability of predicting the brain age with prediction error of 1.98 years without training data, which shows better result than other age predition methods.

  13. Tissue Sampling Guides for Porcine Biomedical Models.

    PubMed

    Albl, Barbara; Haesner, Serena; Braun-Reichhart, Christina; Streckel, Elisabeth; Renner, Simone; Seeliger, Frank; Wolf, Eckhard; Wanke, Rüdiger; Blutke, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    This article provides guidelines for organ and tissue sampling adapted to porcine animal models in translational medical research. Detailed protocols for the determination of sampling locations and numbers as well as recommendations on the orientation, size, and trimming direction of samples from ∼50 different porcine organs and tissues are provided in the Supplementary Material. The proposed sampling protocols include the generation of samples suitable for subsequent qualitative and quantitative analyses, including cryohistology, paraffin, and plastic histology; immunohistochemistry;in situhybridization; electron microscopy; and quantitative stereology as well as molecular analyses of DNA, RNA, proteins, metabolites, and electrolytes. With regard to the planned extent of sampling efforts, time, and personnel expenses, and dependent upon the scheduled analyses, different protocols are provided. These protocols are adjusted for (I) routine screenings, as used in general toxicity studies or in analyses of gene expression patterns or histopathological organ alterations, (II) advanced analyses of single organs/tissues, and (III) large-scale sampling procedures to be applied in biobank projects. Providing a robust reference for studies of porcine models, the described protocols will ensure the efficiency of sampling, the systematic recovery of high-quality samples representing the entire organ or tissue as well as the intra-/interstudy comparability and reproducibility of results.

  14. Calibration of models using groundwater age

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sanford, W.

    2011-01-01

    There have been substantial efforts recently by geochemists to determine the age of groundwater (time since water entered the system) and its uncertainty, and by hydrologists to use these data to help calibrate groundwater models. This essay discusses the calibration of models using groundwater age, with conclusions that emphasize what is practical given current limitations rather than theoretical possibilities.

  15. Adaptive importance sampling for network growth models

    PubMed Central

    Holmes, Susan P.

    2016-01-01

    Network Growth Models such as Preferential Attachment and Duplication/Divergence are popular generative models with which to study complex networks in biology, sociology, and computer science. However, analyzing them within the framework of model selection and statistical inference is often complicated and computationally difficult, particularly when comparing models that are not directly related or nested. In practice, ad hoc methods are often used with uncertain results. If possible, the use of standard likelihood-based statistical model selection techniques is desirable. With this in mind, we develop an Adaptive Importance Sampling algorithm for estimating likelihoods of Network Growth Models. We introduce the use of the classic Plackett-Luce model of rankings as a family of importance distributions. Updates to importance distributions are performed iteratively via the Cross-Entropy Method with an additional correction for degeneracy/over-fitting inspired by the Minimum Description Length principle. This correction can be applied to other estimation problems using the Cross-Entropy method for integration/approximate counting, and it provides an interpretation of Adaptive Importance Sampling as iterative model selection. Empirical results for the Preferential Attachment model are given, along with a comparison to an alternative established technique, Annealed Importance Sampling. PMID:27182098

  16. The Gilded Age: An ERIC/ChESS Sample.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, David

    1999-01-01

    Provides a list of teaching materials and general background information from the ERIC database on the Gilded Age and directions for obtaining the full text of these materials; topics include, but are not limited to, immigration, the 1896 presidential election, the Populist movement, the Industrial Revolution, urbanization, and the development of…

  17. Aging behavior and lifetime modeling for polycarbonate

    SciTech Connect

    Kahlen, S.; Wallner, G.M.; Lang, R.W.

    2010-05-15

    In this paper, polycarbonate (PC) as a material candidate for solar absorber applications is investigated as to the aging behavior at different temperatures in air and water. The aging conditioning was performed in air in the temperature range from 120 to 140 C and in water between 70 and 95 C. Tensile tests were performed on unaged and aged PC film specimens at ambient temperature using strain-to-break values as a performance indicator for the degree of aging. For PC the effect of aging was found to strongly depend on the aging conditions. Activation energy based lifetime prediction models according to various methods described in the literature were applied. The activation energies and corresponding lifetime predictions for the temperature range from 40 to 60 C in water and from 90 to 110 C in air derived from these models are compared and interpreted as to their practical relevance. (author)

  18. Age Differences in Personality: Evidence from a Nationally Representative Australian Sample

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lucas, Richard E.; Donnellan, M. Brent

    2009-01-01

    Cross-sectional age differences in the Big Five personality traits were examined in a nationally representative sample of Australians (N = 12,618; age range = 15-84). Extraversion, Neuroticism, and Openness were negatively associated with age, whereas Agreeableness and Conscientiousness were positively associated with age. Effect sizes comparing…

  19. Probabilistically Constraining Age-Depth-Models of Glaciogenic Sediments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, J.; van der Bilt, W.; Tingley, M.

    2015-12-01

    Reconstructions of the late-Holocene climate rely heavily upon proxies that are assumed to be accurately dated by layer counting. All of these proxies, such as measurements of tree rings, ice cores, and varved lake sediments do carry some inherent dating uncertainty that is not always fully accounted for. Considerable advances could be achieved if time uncertainties were recognized and correctly modeled, also for proxies commonly treated as free of age model errors. Current approaches for accounting for time uncertainty are generally limited to repeating the reconstruction using each one of an ensemble of age models, thereby inflating the final estimated uncertainty - in effect, each possible age model is given equal weighting. Uncertainties can be reduced by exploiting the inferred space-time covariance structure of the climate to re-weight the possible age models. Werner and Tingley (2015) demonstrated how Bayesian hierarchical climate reconstruction models can be augmented to account for time-uncertain proxies. In their method, probabilities associated with the age models are formally updated within the Bayesian framework, thereby reducing uncertainties. Numerical experiments (Werner and Tingley 2015) show that updating the age model probabilities decreases uncertainty in the resulting reconstructions, as compared with the current de facto standard of sampling over all age models, provided there is sufficient information from other data sources in the spatial region of the time-uncertain proxy. We show how this novel method can be applied to high resolution, sub-annually sampled lacustrine sediment records to constrain their respective age depth models. The results help to quantify the signal content and extract the regionally representative signal. The single time series can then be used as the basis for a reconstruction of glacial activity. van der Bilt et al. in prep. Werner, J.P. and Tingley, M.P. Clim. Past (2015)

  20. Modeling abundance using hierarchical distance sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, Andy; Kery, Marc

    2016-01-01

    In this chapter, we provide an introduction to classical distance sampling ideas for point and line transect data, and for continuous and binned distance data. We introduce the conditional and the full likelihood, and we discuss Bayesian analysis of these models in BUGS using the idea of data augmentation, which we discussed in Chapter 7. We then extend the basic ideas to the problem of hierarchical distance sampling (HDS), where we have multiple point or transect sample units in space (or possibly in time). The benefit of HDS in practice is that it allows us to directly model spatial variation in population size among these sample units. This is a preeminent concern of most field studies that use distance sampling methods, but it is not a problem that has received much attention in the literature. We show how to analyze HDS models in both the unmarked package and in the BUGS language for point and line transects, and for continuous and binned distance data. We provide a case study of HDS applied to a survey of the island scrub-jay on Santa Cruz Island, California.

  1. Mixture Models for Distance Sampling Detection Functions

    PubMed Central

    Miller, David L.; Thomas, Len

    2015-01-01

    We present a new class of models for the detection function in distance sampling surveys of wildlife populations, based on finite mixtures of simple parametric key functions such as the half-normal. The models share many of the features of the widely-used “key function plus series adjustment” (K+A) formulation: they are flexible, produce plausible shapes with a small number of parameters, allow incorporation of covariates in addition to distance and can be fitted using maximum likelihood. One important advantage over the K+A approach is that the mixtures are automatically monotonic non-increasing and non-negative, so constrained optimization is not required to ensure distance sampling assumptions are honoured. We compare the mixture formulation to the K+A approach using simulations to evaluate its applicability in a wide set of challenging situations. We also re-analyze four previously problematic real-world case studies. We find mixtures outperform K+A methods in many cases, particularly spiked line transect data (i.e., where detectability drops rapidly at small distances) and larger sample sizes. We recommend that current standard model selection methods for distance sampling detection functions are extended to include mixture models in the candidate set. PMID:25793744

  2. Cancer progression modeling using static sample data.

    PubMed

    Sun, Yijun; Yao, Jin; Nowak, Norma J; Goodison, Steve

    2014-01-01

    As molecular profiling data continues to accumulate, the design of integrative computational analyses that can provide insights into the dynamic aspects of cancer progression becomes feasible. Here, we present a novel computational method for the construction of cancer progression models based on the analysis of static tumor samples. We demonstrate the reliability of the method with simulated data, and describe the application to breast cancer data. Our findings support a linear, branching model for breast cancer progression. An interactive model facilitates the identification of key molecular events in the advance of disease to malignancy.

  3. Age estimation by pulp/tooth area ratio in canines: study of a Portuguese sample to test Cameriere's method.

    PubMed

    Cameriere, R; Cunha, E; Sassaroli, E; Nuzzolese, E; Ferrante, L

    2009-12-15

    Age estimation in adults is an important problem in both anthropological and forensic fields, and apposition of secondary dentine is often used as an indicator of age. In recent papers, Cameriere et al. studied the pulp/tooth area ratio of canines for this purpose. The present study examines the application of the pulp/tooth area ratio by peri-apical X-ray images as an age indicator in a Portuguese identified sample. The statistical model was then compared with results from an Italian identified sample, to establish whether a common regression model for both samples could be developed. The Portuguese sample consisted of 126 canines of male and 132 of female from subjects 20 to 84 years old, from the osteological collection of the Museum of Anthropology at Coimbra University. The Italian sample consisted of 114 canines of male and 86 of female from subjects 20 to 79 years old, analyzed in Cameriere et al. (2007), and came from the Frassetto osteological collection of Sassari (Sardinia), now housed in the Museum of Anthropology, Department of Experimental and Evolutionistic Biology, University of Bologna. Statistical analysis was performed in order to obtain multiple regression formulas for dental age calculation, with chronological age as dependent variable, and gender and pulp/tooth area ratio on upper (RA(u)) and lower canines (RA(l)) as independent variables. ANCOVA analysis showed that gender was not significant but that variables RA(u) and RA(l) were. The regression model for the Portuguese sample yielded the following equations: Age=101.3-556.68 RA(u) (upper canines) and Age=92.37-492.05 RA(l) (lower canines). Both models explained about 97% of total variance, and mean prediction errors were ME=2.37 years and 2.55 years, respectively. Comparisons between the equation referring to the Portuguese sample and the equivalent linear equations proposed by Cameriere et al. for the Italian sample did not reveal significant differences between the linear models

  4. Dynamical Masses Demonstrate the Discordant Model Ages for Upper Scorpius

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rizzuto, Aaron C.; Ireland, Michael; Kraus, Adam L.; Dupuy, Trent J.

    2016-01-01

    We present the results of a long term orbit monitoring program, using sparse aperture masking observations taken with NIRC2 on the Keck-II telescope, of seven G to M-type members of the Upper Scorpius subgroup of the Sco-Cen OB association. We present astrometry and derived orbital elements of the binary systems we have monitored, and also determine the age, component masses, distance and reddening for each system using the orbital solutions and multi-band photometry, including Hubble Space Telescope photometry, and a Bayesian fitting procedure. We find that the models can be forced into agreement with any individual system by assuming an age, but that ageis not consistent across the mass range of our sample. The G-type binary systems in our sample have model ages of ~11.5 Myr, which is consistent with the latest age estimates for Upper Scorpius, while the M-type binary systems have significantly younger model ages of ~7 Myr. Based on our fits to the data, this age discrepancy in the models corresponds to a luminosity under-prediction of 0.8-0.15 dex, or equivalently an effective temperature over-prediction of 100-300 K for M-type stars at a given premain-sequence age.

  5. Annealed Importance Sampling for Neural Mass Models.

    PubMed

    Penny, Will; Sengupta, Biswa

    2016-03-01

    Neural Mass Models provide a compact description of the dynamical activity of cell populations in neocortical regions. Moreover, models of regional activity can be connected together into networks, and inferences made about the strength of connections, using M/EEG data and Bayesian inference. To date, however, Bayesian methods have been largely restricted to the Variational Laplace (VL) algorithm which assumes that the posterior distribution is Gaussian and finds model parameters that are only locally optimal. This paper explores the use of Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) to address these restrictions. We implement AIS using proposals derived from Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) which uses local gradient and curvature information for efficient exploration of parameter space. In terms of the estimation of Bayes factors, VL and AIS agree about which model is best but report different degrees of belief. Additionally, AIS finds better model parameters and we find evidence of non-Gaussianity in their posterior distribution. PMID:26942606

  6. Annealed Importance Sampling for Neural Mass Models.

    PubMed

    Penny, Will; Sengupta, Biswa

    2016-03-01

    Neural Mass Models provide a compact description of the dynamical activity of cell populations in neocortical regions. Moreover, models of regional activity can be connected together into networks, and inferences made about the strength of connections, using M/EEG data and Bayesian inference. To date, however, Bayesian methods have been largely restricted to the Variational Laplace (VL) algorithm which assumes that the posterior distribution is Gaussian and finds model parameters that are only locally optimal. This paper explores the use of Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) to address these restrictions. We implement AIS using proposals derived from Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) which uses local gradient and curvature information for efficient exploration of parameter space. In terms of the estimation of Bayes factors, VL and AIS agree about which model is best but report different degrees of belief. Additionally, AIS finds better model parameters and we find evidence of non-Gaussianity in their posterior distribution.

  7. Annealed Importance Sampling for Neural Mass Models

    PubMed Central

    Penny, Will; Sengupta, Biswa

    2016-01-01

    Neural Mass Models provide a compact description of the dynamical activity of cell populations in neocortical regions. Moreover, models of regional activity can be connected together into networks, and inferences made about the strength of connections, using M/EEG data and Bayesian inference. To date, however, Bayesian methods have been largely restricted to the Variational Laplace (VL) algorithm which assumes that the posterior distribution is Gaussian and finds model parameters that are only locally optimal. This paper explores the use of Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) to address these restrictions. We implement AIS using proposals derived from Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) which uses local gradient and curvature information for efficient exploration of parameter space. In terms of the estimation of Bayes factors, VL and AIS agree about which model is best but report different degrees of belief. Additionally, AIS finds better model parameters and we find evidence of non-Gaussianity in their posterior distribution. PMID:26942606

  8. Using GC × GC-FID profiles to estimate the age of weathered gasoline samples.

    PubMed

    Zorzetti, Brianne M; Harynuk, James J

    2011-11-01

    Predicting the amount of time that a petroleum mixture has been exposed to weathering effects has applications in areas of environmental and other forensic investigations, such as aiding in determining the cause and intent of a fire. Historically, research on the evaporation rates of hydrocarbon mixtures has focused on forensic oil spill identification and predicting if a fresh sample could be weathered to give an observed composition in an aged sample. Relatively little attention has focused on approaching the problem from the other direction: estimating exposure time based on the observed composition of a weathered sample at a given time and assuming a prior composition. Here, we build upon our previous research into the weathering of model mixtures by extending our work to gasoline. Samples of gasoline with varying octane ratings and from several vendors were weathered under controlled conditions and their composition monitored over time by two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC × GC). A variety of chemometric models were explored, including partial least squares (PLS), nonlinear PLS (PolyPLS) and locally weighted regression (LWR). A hierarchical application of multivariate techniques was able to predict the time for which a sample had been exposed to evaporative weathering. Partial least squares discriminant analysis could predict whether a sample was relatively fresh (<12 h exposure time) or highly weathered (>20 h exposure time). Subsequent regression models for these classes were evaluated for accuracy using the root mean square error of prediction. LWR was the most successful, whereby fresh and highly weathered samples were predicted to within 30 min and 5 h of exposure, respectively.

  9. Pathology of Mouse Models of Accelerated Aging.

    PubMed

    Harkema, L; Youssef, S A; de Bruin, A

    2016-03-01

    Progeroid mouse models display phenotypes in multiple organ systems that suggest premature aging and resemble features of natural aging of both mice and humans. The prospect of a significant increase in the global elderly population within the next decades has led to the emergence of "geroscience," which aims at elucidating the molecular mechanisms involved in aging. Progeroid mouse models are frequently used in geroscience as they provide insight into the molecular mechanisms that are involved in the highly complex process of natural aging. This review provides an overview of the most commonly reported nonneoplastic macroscopic and microscopic pathologic findings in progeroid mouse models (eg, osteoporosis, osteoarthritis, degenerative joint disease, intervertebral disc degeneration, kyphosis, sarcopenia, cutaneous atrophy, wound healing, hair loss, alopecia, lymphoid atrophy, cataract, corneal endothelial dystrophy, retinal degenerative diseases, and vascular remodeling). Furthermore, several shortcomings in pathologic analysis and descriptions of these models are discussed. Progeroid mouse models are valuable models for aging, but thorough knowledge of both the mouse strain background and the progeria-related phenotype is required to guide interpretation and translation of the pathology data. PMID:26864891

  10. Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ) in Brazilian Samples of Different Age Groups: Findings from Confirmatory Factor Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Grassi-Oliveira, Rodrigo; Cogo-Moreira, Hugo; Salum, Giovanni Abrahão; Brietzke, Elisa; Viola, Thiago Wendt; Manfro, Gisele Gus; Kristensen, Christian Haag; Arteche, Adriane Xavier

    2014-01-01

    The Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ) is internationally accepted as a key tool for the assessment of childhood abuse and neglect experiences. However, there are relative few psychometric studies available and some authors have proposed two different factor solutions. We examined the dimensional structure and internal consistency of the Brazilian version of the CTQ. A total of 1,925 participants from eight different clinical and non-clinical samples including adolescents, adults and elders were considered in this study. First, we performed Confirmatory Factor Analysis to investigate the goodness of fit of the two proposed competitive factor structure models for the CTQ. We also investigated the internal consistency of all factors. Second, multi-group analyses were used to investigate measurement invariance and population heterogeneity across age groups and sex. Our findings revealed that the alternative factor structure as opposed to the original factor structure was the most appropriate model within adolescents and adults Brazilian samples. We provide further evidence for the validity and reliability of the CTQ within the Brazilian samples and report that the alternative model showed an improvement in fit indexes and may be a better alternative over the original model. PMID:24475237

  11. Species ages in neutral biodiversity models.

    PubMed

    Chisholm, Ryan A; O'Dwyer, James P

    2014-05-01

    Biogeography seeks to understand the mechanisms that drive biodiversity across long temporal and large spatial scales. Theoretical models of biogeography can be tested by comparing their predictions of quantities such as species ages against empirical estimates. It has previously been claimed that the neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography predicts species ages that are unrealistically long. Any improved theory of biodiversity must rectify this problem, but first it is necessary to quantify the problem precisely. Here we provide analytical expressions for species ages in neutral biodiversity communities. We analyse a spatially implicit metacommunity model and solve for both the zero-sum and non-zero-sum cases. We explain why our new expressions are, in the context of biodiversity, usually more appropriate than those previously imported from neutral molecular evolution. Because of the time symmetry of the spatially implicit neutral model, our expressions also lead directly to formulas for species persistence times and species lifetimes. We use our new expressions to estimate species ages of forest trees under a neutral model and find that they are about an order of magnitude shorter than those predicted previously but still unrealistically long. In light of our results, we discuss different models of biogeography that may solve the problem of species ages.

  12. Age at Puberty and Father Absence in a National Probability Sample

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bogaert, A.F.

    2005-01-01

    The relations between intactness of the parental unit (e.g., father absent at age 14) and pubertal timing in both men and women were examined in a US national probability sample. In both men and women, an absent father at age 14 predicted an earlier age of puberty (e.g., early menarche or voice change). There was little evidence that an absent…

  13. Multistage sampling for latent variable models.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Duncan C

    2007-12-01

    I consider the design of multistage sampling schemes for epidemiologic studies involving latent variable models, with surrogate measurements of the latent variables on a subset of subjects. Such models arise in various situations: when detailed exposure measurements are combined with variables that can be used to assign exposures to unmeasured subjects; when biomarkers are obtained to assess an unobserved pathophysiologic process; or when additional information is to be obtained on confounding or modifying variables. In such situations, it may be possible to stratify the subsample on data available for all subjects in the main study, such as outcomes, exposure predictors, or geographic locations. Three circumstances where analytic calculations of the optimal design are possible are considered: (i) when all variables are binary; (ii) when all are normally distributed; and (iii) when the latent variable and its measurement are normally distributed, but the outcome is binary. In each of these cases, it is often possible to considerably improve the cost efficiency of the design by appropriate selection of the sampling fractions. More complex situations arise when the data are spatially distributed: the spatial correlation can be exploited to improve exposure assignment for unmeasured locations using available measurements on neighboring locations; some approaches for informative selection of the measurement sample using location and/or exposure predictor data are considered.

  14. Predicting successful aging in a population-based sample of georgia centenarians.

    PubMed

    Arnold, Jonathan; Dai, Jianliang; Nahapetyan, Lusine; Arte, Ankit; Johnson, Mary Ann; Hausman, Dorothy; Rodgers, Willard L; Hensley, Robert; Martin, Peter; Macdonald, Maurice; Davey, Adam; Siegler, Ilene C; Jazwinski, S Michal; Poon, Leonard W

    2010-01-01

    Used a population-based sample (Georgia Centenarian Study, GCS), to determine proportions of centenarians reaching 100 years as (1) survivors (43%) of chronic diseases first experienced between 0-80 years of age, (2) delayers (36%) with chronic diseases first experienced between 80-98 years of age, or (3) escapers (17%) with chronic diseases only at 98 years of age or older. Diseases fall into two morbidity profiles of 11 chronic diseases; one including cardiovascular disease, cancer, anemia, and osteoporosis, and another including dementia. Centenarians at risk for cancer in their lifetime tended to be escapers (73%), while those at risk for cardiovascular disease tended to be survivors (24%), delayers (39%), or escapers (32%). Approximately half (43%) of the centenarians did not experience dementia. Psychiatric disorders were positively associated with dementia, but prevalence of depression, anxiety, and psychoses did not differ significantly between centenarians and an octogenarian control group. However, centenarians were higher on the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) than octogenarians. Consistent with our model of developmental adaptation in aging, distal life events contribute to predicting survivorship outcome in which health status as survivor, delayer, or escaper appears as adaptation variables late in life. PMID:20885919

  15. Predicting successful aging in a population-based sample of georgia centenarians.

    PubMed

    Arnold, Jonathan; Dai, Jianliang; Nahapetyan, Lusine; Arte, Ankit; Johnson, Mary Ann; Hausman, Dorothy; Rodgers, Willard L; Hensley, Robert; Martin, Peter; Macdonald, Maurice; Davey, Adam; Siegler, Ilene C; Jazwinski, S Michal; Poon, Leonard W

    2010-01-01

    Used a population-based sample (Georgia Centenarian Study, GCS), to determine proportions of centenarians reaching 100 years as (1) survivors (43%) of chronic diseases first experienced between 0-80 years of age, (2) delayers (36%) with chronic diseases first experienced between 80-98 years of age, or (3) escapers (17%) with chronic diseases only at 98 years of age or older. Diseases fall into two morbidity profiles of 11 chronic diseases; one including cardiovascular disease, cancer, anemia, and osteoporosis, and another including dementia. Centenarians at risk for cancer in their lifetime tended to be escapers (73%), while those at risk for cardiovascular disease tended to be survivors (24%), delayers (39%), or escapers (32%). Approximately half (43%) of the centenarians did not experience dementia. Psychiatric disorders were positively associated with dementia, but prevalence of depression, anxiety, and psychoses did not differ significantly between centenarians and an octogenarian control group. However, centenarians were higher on the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) than octogenarians. Consistent with our model of developmental adaptation in aging, distal life events contribute to predicting survivorship outcome in which health status as survivor, delayer, or escaper appears as adaptation variables late in life.

  16. Phylogenetic estimation of timescales using ancient DNA: the effects of temporal sampling scheme and uncertainty in sample ages.

    PubMed

    Molak, Martyna; Lorenzen, Eline D; Shapiro, Beth; Ho, Simon Y W

    2013-02-01

    In recent years, ancient DNA has increasingly been used for estimating molecular timescales, particularly in studies of substitution rates and demographic histories. Molecular clocks can be calibrated using temporal information from ancient DNA sequences. This information comes from the ages of the ancient samples, which can be estimated by radiocarbon dating the source material or by dating the layers in which the material was deposited. Both methods involve sources of uncertainty. The performance of bayesian phylogenetic inference depends on the information content of the data set, which includes variation in the DNA sequences and the structure of the sample ages. Various sources of estimation error can reduce our ability to estimate rates and timescales accurately and precisely. We investigated the impact of sample-dating uncertainties on the estimation of evolutionary timescale parameters using the software BEAST. Our analyses involved 11 published data sets and focused on estimates of substitution rate and root age. We show that, provided that samples have been accurately dated and have a broad temporal span, it might be unnecessary to account for sample-dating uncertainty in Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of ancient DNA. We also investigated the sample size and temporal span of the ancient DNA sequences needed to estimate phylogenetic timescales reliably. Our results show that the range of sample ages plays a crucial role in determining the quality of the results but that accurate and precise phylogenetic estimates of timescales can be made even with only a few ancient sequences. These findings have important practical consequences for studies of molecular rates, timescales, and population dynamics.

  17. Forensic age prediction for dead or living samples by use of methylation-sensitive high resolution melting.

    PubMed

    Hamano, Yuya; Manabe, Sho; Morimoto, Chie; Fujimoto, Shuntaro; Ozeki, Munetaka; Tamaki, Keiji

    2016-07-01

    Age prediction with epigenetic information is now edging closer to practical use in forensic community. Many age-related CpG (AR-CpG) sites have proven useful in predicting age in pyrosequencing or DNA chip analyses. In this study, a wide range methylation status in the ELOVL2 and FHL2 promoter regions were detected with methylation-sensitive high resolution melting (MS-HRM) in a labor-, time-, and cost-effective manner. Non-linear-distributions of methylation status and chronological age were newly fitted to the logistic curve. Notably, these distributions were revealed to be similar in 22 living blood samples and 52 dead blood samples. Therefore, the difference of methylation status between living and dead samples suggested to be ignorable by MS-HRM. Additionally, the information from ELOVL2 and FHL2 were integrated into a logistic curve fitting model to develop a final predictive model through the multivariate linear regression of logit-linked methylation rates and chronological age with adjusted R(2)=0.83. Mean absolute deviation (MAD) was 7.44 for 74 training set and 7.71 for 30 additional independent test set, indicating that the final predicting model is accurate. This suggests that our MS-HRM-based method has great potential in predicting actual forensic age.

  18. Forensic age prediction for dead or living samples by use of methylation-sensitive high resolution melting.

    PubMed

    Hamano, Yuya; Manabe, Sho; Morimoto, Chie; Fujimoto, Shuntaro; Ozeki, Munetaka; Tamaki, Keiji

    2016-07-01

    Age prediction with epigenetic information is now edging closer to practical use in forensic community. Many age-related CpG (AR-CpG) sites have proven useful in predicting age in pyrosequencing or DNA chip analyses. In this study, a wide range methylation status in the ELOVL2 and FHL2 promoter regions were detected with methylation-sensitive high resolution melting (MS-HRM) in a labor-, time-, and cost-effective manner. Non-linear-distributions of methylation status and chronological age were newly fitted to the logistic curve. Notably, these distributions were revealed to be similar in 22 living blood samples and 52 dead blood samples. Therefore, the difference of methylation status between living and dead samples suggested to be ignorable by MS-HRM. Additionally, the information from ELOVL2 and FHL2 were integrated into a logistic curve fitting model to develop a final predictive model through the multivariate linear regression of logit-linked methylation rates and chronological age with adjusted R(2)=0.83. Mean absolute deviation (MAD) was 7.44 for 74 training set and 7.71 for 30 additional independent test set, indicating that the final predicting model is accurate. This suggests that our MS-HRM-based method has great potential in predicting actual forensic age. PMID:27497326

  19. Love Kills:. Simulations in Penna Ageing Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stauffer, Dietrich; Cebrat, Stanisław; Penna, T. J. P.; Sousa, A. O.

    The standard Penna ageing model with sexual reproduction is enlarged by adding additional bit-strings for love: Marriage happens only if the male love strings are sufficiently different from the female ones. We simulate at what level of required difference the population dies out.

  20. Correlates of age at first sexual intercourse in a national sample of young women.

    PubMed

    Bingham, C R; Miller, B C; Adams, G R

    1990-01-01

    A subsample of 814 sexually experienced adolescent females from the 1979 U.S. National Survey of Young Women was analyzed to assess the correlates of age at 1st sexual intercourse. Multiple regression procedures were used to examine sets of variables sequentially. In the hierarchical regression model, the control variables (respondent's age, race, religion, and age at menarche), along with 3 independent variables (household income, ideal age at 1st marriage, and ideal age for 1st birth), predicted age at 1st intercourse. The control variables accounted for a major portion of the variance in the model. Of the controls, chronological age and age at menarche were highly significant across all models tested. PMID:12343095

  1. Trajectories of HIV Risk Behavior from Age 15 to 25 in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth Sample

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Debra A.; Brecht, Mary-Lynn; Herbeck, Diane M.; Huang, David

    2009-01-01

    This study utilized data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to investigate youth risk trajectories for HIV and factors associated with different trajectories. The sample (N = 8,208) was 49.2% female, with a mean age of 14.31 (SD = 1.48). A group-based trajectory model was applied, which identified four distinct trajectories for both…

  2. Image analysis of pubic bone for age estimation in a computed tomography sample.

    PubMed

    López-Alcaraz, Manuel; González, Pedro Manuel Garamendi; Aguilera, Inmaculada Alemán; López, Miguel Botella

    2015-03-01

    Radiology has demonstrated great utility for age estimation, but most of the studies are based on metrical and morphological methods in order to perform an identification profile. A simple image analysis-based method is presented, aimed to correlate the bony tissue ultrastructure with several variables obtained from the grey-level histogram (GLH) of computed tomography (CT) sagittal sections of the pubic symphysis surface and the pubic body, and relating them with age. The CT sample consisted of 169 hospital Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) archives of known sex and age. The calculated multiple regression models showed a maximum R (2) of 0.533 for females and 0.726 for males, with a high intra- and inter-observer agreement. The method suggested is considered not only useful for performing an identification profile during virtopsy, but also for application in further studies in order to attach a quantitative correlation for tissue ultrastructure characteristics, without complex and expensive methods beyond image analysis.

  3. Animal models of age related macular degeneration

    PubMed Central

    Pennesi, Mark E.; Neuringer, Martha; Courtney, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of vision loss of those over the age of 65 in the industrialized world. The prevalence and need to develop effective treatments for AMD has lead to the development of multiple animal models. AMD is a complex and heterogeneous disease that involves the interaction of both genetic and environmental factors with the unique anatomy of the human macula. Models in mice, rats, rabbits, pigs and non-human primates have recreated many of the histological features of AMD and provided much insight into the underlying pathological mechanisms of this disease. In spite of the large number of models developed, no one model yet recapitulates all of the features of human AMD. However, these models have helped reveal the roles of chronic oxidative damage, inflammation and immune dysregulation, and lipid metabolism in the development of AMD. Models for induced choroidal neovascularization have served as the backbone for testing new therapies. This article will review the diversity of animal models that exist for AMD as well as their strengths and limitations. PMID:22705444

  4. An evaluation of sex-age-kill (SAK) model performance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Skalski, John R.; Townsend, Richard L.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Boyce, Mark S.; Hansen, Lonnie P.; Kammermeyer, Kent

    2009-01-01

    The sex-age-kill (SAK) model is widely used to estimate abundance of harvested large mammals, including white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Despite a long history of use, few formal evaluations of SAK performance exist. We investigated how violations of the stable age distribution and stationary population assumption, changes to male or female harvest, stochastic effects (i.e., random fluctuations in recruitment and survival), and sampling efforts influenced SAK estimation. When the simulated population had a stable age distribution and λ > 1, the SAK model underestimated abundance. Conversely, when λ < 1, the SAK overestimated abundance. When changes to male harvest were introduced, SAK estimates were opposite the true population trend. In contrast, SAK estimates were robust to changes in female harvest rates. Stochastic effects caused SAK estimates to fluctuate about their equilibrium abundance, but the effect dampened as the size of the surveyed population increased. When we considered both stochastic effects and sampling error at a deer management unit scale the resultant abundance estimates were within ±121.9% of the true population level 95% of the time. These combined results demonstrate extreme sensitivity to model violations and scale of analysis. Without changes to model formulation, the SAK model will be biased when λ ≠ 1. Furthermore, any factor that alters the male harvest rate, such as changes to regulations or changes in hunter attitudes, will bias population estimates. Sex-age-kill estimates may be precise at large spatial scales, such as the state level, but less so at the individual management unit level. Alternative models, such as statistical age-at-harvest models, which require similar data types, might allow for more robust, broad-scale demographic assessments.

  5. Menarcheal age in a sample of Basque schoolgirls: a comparative study with other Spanish populations.

    PubMed

    Rebato, E; Rosique, J; González Apraiz, A

    1994-06-01

    Reported data on age at menarche in a sample of Biscayan schoolgirls are compared with data from several Spanish populations. Though the mean age falls in the range of variation of the Spanish means, the analysis of variance shows significant differences among the series. With regard to the possible secular trend of this event in the Biscay province, both a stability of menarcheal age and a diminution of the process of variability are observed.

  6. Cohesive Adequacy in the Narrative Samples of School-Age Children Who Use African American English

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Horton-Ikard, RaMonda

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: This study explored the type and adequacy of cohesive devices that are produced by school-age children who use African American English (AAE). Method: The language samples of 33 African American children, ages 7, 9, and 11 years, were transcribed, analyzed, and coded for AAE use and cohesive adequacy (e.g., personal reference,…

  7. Age estimation by measurements of developing teeth: accuracy of Cameriere's method on a Brazilian sample.

    PubMed

    Fernandes, Mário Marques; Tinoco, Rachel Lima Ribeiro; de Braganca, Daniel Pereira Parreiras; de Lima, Silas Henrique Rabelo; Francesquini Junior, Luiz; Daruge Junior, Eduardo

    2011-11-01

    Developing teeth are commonly the criteria used for age estimation in children and young adults. The method developed by Cameriere et al. (Int J Legal Med 2006;120:49-52) is based on measures of teeth with open apex, and application of a formula, to estimate chronological age of children. The present study evaluated a sample of panoramic radiographs from Brazilian children from 5 to 15 years of age, to evaluate the accuracy of the method proposed by Cameriere et al. The results has proven the system reliable for age estimation, with a median residual error of -0.014 years between chronological and estimated ages (p = 0.603). There was a slight tendency to overestimate the ages of 5-10 years and underestimate the ages of 11-15 years.

  8. The Implications of Detrital Zircon Maximum Depositional Age (MDA) from Large Sample Datasets (n>500)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coutts, D. S.; Matthews, W.; Guest, B.; Hubbard, S. M.

    2015-12-01

    The youngest sub-population of a detrital zircon geochronological dataset is routinely used to approximate the age of deposition for a sample. The ages represent a maximum depositional age (MDA) because the detrital zircons analyzed crystallized at depth, in a magma chamber prior to being exposed at the surface through erosion or volcanic eruption. Dickinson and Gehrels (2009) demonstrate four methods of calculating the MDA of a zircon population using U-Pb ages, which are assessed in this study. Previous MDA studies used relatively small datasets (n<100), reducing the likelihood of finding the youngest population in a sample. We consider large-n datasets (n>500), which have a greater likelihood of capturing a significant proportion of the youngest population and therefore have the potential to improve the accuracy of a calculated MDA. We assess the effects of sample size and MDA calculation methods using a numerical model consisting of a simulated population of detrital zircon grains with known ages. Using our population of 25048 simulated grains, we ran repeated trials of varying sample sizes (n=50, 100, 300, 500, 700, 1000, 1500) to compare the output of MDA calculation techniques. As sample size increases the youngest sub-population of zircons is better defined, and the MDA decreases and becomes more precise. As a further test, model results are compared to U-Pb data (n=695) from a sample of the Maasrichtian-Paleocene Gabriola Formation (Nanaimo Group, B.C., Canada). Similar trials of varying sample sizes show the same decrease in MDA. Biostratigraphic analysis assigned the formation to the Maastrichtian (72.1 - 66.0 Ma), however, our results indicate that deposition took place in the Danian (66.0 - 61.6 Ma). This result has implications for the timing of forearc basin fill, and more broadly, the evolution of the Western North American Cordillera. MDA methods on large-n datasets can be used to hone stratigraphic correlations and calculate sediment accumulation

  9. Age-dependent forest carbon sink: Estimation via inverse modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Tao; Shi, Peijun; Jia, Gensuo; Dai, Yongjiu; Zhao, Xiang; Shangguan, Wei; Du, Ling; Wu, Hao; Luo, Yiqi

    2015-12-01

    Forests have been recognized to sequester a substantial amount of carbon (C) from the atmosphere. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and time course of the C sink. Revealing the intrinsic relationship between forest age and C sink is crucial for reducing uncertainties in prediction of forest C sink potential. In this study, we developed a stepwise data assimilation approach to combine a process-based Terrestrial ECOsystem Regional model, observations from multiple sources, and stochastic sampling to inversely estimate carbon cycle parameters including carbon sink at different forest ages for evergreen needle-leaved forests in China. The new approach is effective to estimate age-dependent parameter of maximal light-use efficiency (R2 = 0.99) and, accordingly, can quantify a relationship between forest age and the vegetation and soil C sinks. The estimated ecosystem C sink increases rapidly with age, peaks at 0.451 kg C m-2 yr-1 at age 22 years (ranging from 0.421 to 0.465 kg C m-2 yr-1), and gradually decreases thereafter. The dynamic patterns of C sinks in vegetation and soil are significantly different. C sink in vegetation first increases rapidly with age and then decreases. C sink in soil, however, increases continuously with age; it acts as a C source when the age is less than 20 years, after which it acts as a sink. For the evergreen needle-leaved forest, the highest C sink efficiency (i.e., C sink per unit net primary productivity) is approximately 60%, with age between 11 and 43 years. Overall, the inverse estimation of carbon cycle parameters can make reasonable estimates of age-dependent C sequestration in forests.

  10. Age Dependent Absolute Plate and Plume Motion Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heaton, D. E.; Koppers, A. A. P.

    2015-12-01

    Current absolute plate motion (APM) models from 80 - 0 Ma are constrained by the location of mantle plume related hotspot seamounts, in particular those of the Hawaiian-Emperor and Louisville seamount trails. Originally the 'fixed' hotspot hypothesis was developed to explain past plate motion based on linear age progressive intra-plate volcanism. However, now that 'moving' hotspots are accepted, it is becoming clear that APM models need to be corrected for individual plume motion vectors. For older seamount trails that were active between roughly 50 and 80 Ma the APM models that use 'fixed' hotspots overestimate the measured age progression in those trails, while APM models corrected for 'moving' hotspots underestimate those age progressions. These mismatches are due to both a lack of reliable ages in the older portions of both the Hawaii and Louisville seamount trails and insufficient APM modeling constraints from other seamount trails in the Pacific Basin. Seamounts are difficult to sample and analyze because many are hydrothermally altered and have low potassium concentrations. New 40Ar/39Ar Age results from International Ocean Drilling Project (IODP) Expedition 330 Sites U1372 (n=18), U1375 (n=3), U1376 (n=15) and U1377 (n=7) aid in constraining the oldest end of the Louisville Seamount trail. A significant observation in this study is that the age range recovered in the drill cores match the range of ages that were acquired on dredging cruises at the same seamounts (e.g. Koppers et al., 2011). This is important for determining the inception age of a seamount. The sections recovered from IODP EXP 330 are in-situ volcanoclastic breccia and lava flows. Comparing the seismic interpretations of Louisville guyots (Contreras-Reyes et al., 2010), Holes U1372, U1373 and U1374 penetrated the extrusive and volcanoclastic sections of the seamount. The ages obtained are consistent over stratigraphic intervals >100-450 m thick, providing evidence that these seamounts

  11. Artificially-aged cachaça samples characterised by direct infusion electrospray ionisation mass spectrometry.

    PubMed

    de Souza, Patterson P; Resende, Ana M M; Augusti, Daniella V; Badotti, Fernanda; Gomes, Fátima de Cássia O; Catharino, Rodrigo R; Eberlin, Marcos N; Augusti, Rodinei

    2014-01-15

    Direct infusion electrospray ionisation mass spectrometry in the negative ion mode [ESI(-)-MS] was employed to evaluate the authenticity of aged cachaças, a traditional and valuable Brazilian alcoholic beverage prepared from the distillation of brewed sugarcane juice and aged in barrels made of common woods. Counterfeit samples were prepared by adding dyes, sawdust or essences to a freshly-distiled, much less valuable sample (white cachaça) to simulate the 1-2years long natural ageing in wooden barrels. A simple visual inspection revealed remarkable differences between the ESI(-)-MS of the authentic samples (aged in oak or amburana casks) and the artificially-aged counterfeit samples. A set of diagnostic ions were detectable in the ESI(-)-MS of the authentic samples aged in oak (m/z 197, 241, 301 and 307) and amburana (m/z 271 and 377/379). This fast and direct methodology seems useful as a routine procedure to monitor this highly profitable and common counterfeit practice. PMID:24054215

  12. Artificially-aged cachaça samples characterised by direct infusion electrospray ionisation mass spectrometry.

    PubMed

    de Souza, Patterson P; Resende, Ana M M; Augusti, Daniella V; Badotti, Fernanda; Gomes, Fátima de Cássia O; Catharino, Rodrigo R; Eberlin, Marcos N; Augusti, Rodinei

    2014-01-15

    Direct infusion electrospray ionisation mass spectrometry in the negative ion mode [ESI(-)-MS] was employed to evaluate the authenticity of aged cachaças, a traditional and valuable Brazilian alcoholic beverage prepared from the distillation of brewed sugarcane juice and aged in barrels made of common woods. Counterfeit samples were prepared by adding dyes, sawdust or essences to a freshly-distiled, much less valuable sample (white cachaça) to simulate the 1-2years long natural ageing in wooden barrels. A simple visual inspection revealed remarkable differences between the ESI(-)-MS of the authentic samples (aged in oak or amburana casks) and the artificially-aged counterfeit samples. A set of diagnostic ions were detectable in the ESI(-)-MS of the authentic samples aged in oak (m/z 197, 241, 301 and 307) and amburana (m/z 271 and 377/379). This fast and direct methodology seems useful as a routine procedure to monitor this highly profitable and common counterfeit practice.

  13. Age of the moon: an isotopic study of uranium-thorium-lead systematics of lunar samples.

    PubMed

    Tatsumoto, M; Rosholt, J N

    1970-01-30

    Concentrations of U, Th, and Pb in Apollo 11 samples studied are low (U. 0.16 to 0.87; Th, 0.53 to 3.4; Pb, 0.29 to 1.7, in ppm) but the extremely radiogenic lead in samples allows radiometric dating. The fine dust and the breccia have a concordant age of 4.66 billion years on the basis of (207)Pb/(206)Pb, (206)Pb/(238)U, (207)Pb/(235U), and(208)Pb/(232)Th ratios. This age is comparable with the age of meteorites and with the age generally accepted for the earth. Six crystalline and vesicular samples are distinctly younger than the dust and breccia. The (238)U/(235)U ratio is the same as that in earth rocks, and (234)U is in radioactive equilibrium with parent (238)U.

  14. Age of the moon: An isotopic study of uranium-thorium-lead systematics of lunar samples

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tatsumoto, M.; Rosholt, J.N.

    1970-01-01

    Concentrations of U, Th, and Pb in Apollo 11 samples studied are low (U. 0.16 to 0.87; Th, 0.53 to 3.4; Pb, 0.29 to 1.7, in ppm) but the extremely radiogenic lead in samples allows radiometric dating. The fine dust and the breccia have a concordant age of 4.66 billion years on the basis of 207Pb/206Pb, 206Pb/238U, 207Pb/235U, and 208Pb/232Th ratios. This age is comparable with the age of meteorites and with the age generally accepted for the earth. Six crystalline and vesicular samples are distinctly younger than the dust and breccia. The 238U/235U ratio is the same as that in earth rocks, and 234U is in radioactive equilibrium with parent 238U.

  15. Loop modeling: Sampling, filtering, and scoring

    PubMed Central

    Soto, Cinque S; Fasnacht, Marc; Zhu, Jiang; Forrest, Lucy; Honig, Barry

    2008-01-01

    We describe a fast and accurate protocol, LoopBuilder, for the prediction of loop conformations in proteins. The procedure includes extensive sampling of backbone conformations, side chain addition, the use of a statistical potential to select a subset of these conformations, and, finally, an energy minimization and ranking with an all-atom force field. We find that the Direct Tweak algorithm used in the previously developed LOOPY program is successful in generating an ensemble of conformations that on average are closer to the native conformation than those generated by other methods. An important feature of Direct Tweak is that it checks for interactions between the loop and the rest of the protein during the loop closure process. DFIRE is found to be a particularly effective statistical potential that can bias conformation space toward conformations that are close to the native structure. Its application as a filter prior to a full molecular mechanics energy minimization both improves prediction accuracy and offers a significant savings in computer time. Final scoring is based on the OPLS/SBG-NP force field implemented in the PLOP program. The approach is also shown to be quite successful in predicting loop conformations for cases where the native side chain conformations are assumed to be unknown, suggesting that it will prove effective in real homology modeling applications. Proteins 2008. © 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc. PMID:17729286

  16. Trajectories of Delinquency from Age 14 to 23 in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth Sample

    PubMed Central

    Murphy, Debra A.; Brecht, Mary-Lynn; Huang, David; Herbeck, Diane M.

    2012-01-01

    This study utilized data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to investigate risk trajectories for delinquency and factors associated with different trajectories, particularly substance use. The sample (N = 8,984) was 49% female. A group-based trajectory model was applied, which identified four distinct trajectories for both males and females: (1) a High group with delinquency rates consistently higher than other groups, with some decrease across the age range; (2) a Decreased group, beginning at high levels with substantial decrease to near zero; (3) a Moderate group experiencing some decline but remaining at moderate rates of delinquency through most of the age range; and (4) a consistently Low group, having low rates of delinquency declining to near zero by mid- to late-teens. The Low group was distinguished by several protective factors, including higher rates of maternal authoritative parenting style, possible lower acculturation (higher rates of non-English spoken at home), higher rates of religious activity, later substance use initiation, lower rates of early delinquent activity, less early experience with neighborhood or personal violence, and higher rates of perceiving penalty for wrongdoing. Conversely, the High group was characterized by several vulnerability factors—essentially the converse of the protective factors above. PMID:23105164

  17. Isotopic composition analysis and age dating of uranium samples by high resolution gamma ray spectrometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Apostol, A. I.; Pantelica, A.; Sima, O.; Fugaru, V.

    2016-09-01

    Non-destructive methods were applied to determine the isotopic composition and the time elapsed since last chemical purification of nine uranium samples. The applied methods are based on measuring gamma and X radiations of uranium samples by high resolution low energy gamma spectrometric system with planar high purity germanium detector and low background gamma spectrometric system with coaxial high purity germanium detector. The "Multigroup γ-ray Analysis Method for Uranium" (MGAU) code was used for the precise determination of samples' isotopic composition. The age of the samples was determined from the isotopic ratio 214Bi/234U. This ratio was calculated from the analyzed spectra of each uranium sample, using relative detection efficiency. Special attention is paid to the coincidence summing corrections that have to be taken into account when performing this type of analysis. In addition, an alternative approach for the age determination using full energy peak efficiencies obtained by Monte Carlo simulations with the GESPECOR code is described.

  18. COnstructing Proxy-Record Age models (COPRA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marwan, Norbert; Rehfeld, Kira; Goswami, Bedartha; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Kurths, Jürgen

    2013-04-01

    Reliable age models are fundamental for any palaeoclimate reconstruction. The increasing availability of high-resolution palaeoclimate time series, e.g., based on speleothem archives, has attracted some new activity in the development of alternative and novel approaches for reconstructing chronologies. Challenges in this effort are (semi-)automatic outlier, reversal, and hiatus detection and treatment, as well as the inclusion of information on age uncertainties and independent layer counting to improve the overall precision of the chronology. However, different dating strategies, different kinds of palaeoarchive formation, dating uncertainties, and different chronology construction methods cause a limited comparability of the different palaeoclimate records. We present a recently developed framework which addresses these challenges and which allows the incorporation of layer counting data to improve the reconstructed chronology of a given time series. Moreover, we introduce the concept of an "absolute" time scale, a common time axis which works as an invariant reference allowing the comparison of different palaeoclimate records. This concept translates the age uncertainties into uncertainties in the proxy values. This framework is implemented as an open source software (COPRA) for Octave and Matlab.

  19. Application of artificial aging techniques to samples of rum and comparison with traditionally aged rums by analysis with artificial neural nets.

    PubMed

    Quesada Granados, J; Merelo Guervós, J J; Oliveras López, M J; González Peñalver, J; Olalla Herrera, M; Blanca Herrera, R; López Martinez, M C

    2002-03-13

    Artificial aging techniques were applied to samples of rum. These samples were then compared, by artificial neural nets, with traditionally aged rums. Analysis was based on the phenolic and furanic composition of each sample. There were found to be few statistical differences between samples, thus confirming the possibility of applying artificial aging techniques to obtain rum with phenolic and furanic characteristics that are similar to those of rum obtained by traditional methods.

  20. Ewens' sampling formula and related formulae: combinatorial proofs, extensions to variable population size and applications to ages of alleles.

    PubMed

    Griffiths, Robert C; Lessard, Sabin

    2005-11-01

    Ewens' sampling formula, the probability distribution of a configuration of alleles in a sample of genes under the infinitely-many-alleles model of mutation, is proved by a direct combinatorial argument. The distribution is extended to a model where the population size may vary back in time. The distribution of age-ordered frequencies in the population is also derived in the model, extending the GEM distribution of age-ordered frequencies in a model with a constant-sized population. The genealogy of a rare allele is studied using a combinatorial approach. A connection is explored between the distribution of age-ordered frequencies and ladder indices and heights in a sequence of random variables. In a sample of n genes the connection is with ladder heights and indices in a sequence of draws from an urn containing balls labelled 1,2,...,n; and in the population the connection is with ladder heights and indices in a sequence of independent uniform random variables.

  1. Creating Better School-Age Care Jobs: Model Work Standards.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haack, Peggy

    Built on the premise that good school-age care jobs are the cornerstone of high-quality services for school-age youth and their families, this guide presents model work standards for school-age care providers. The guide begins with a description of the strengths and challenges of the school-age care profession. The model work standards are…

  2. Towards an Analytical Age-Dependent Model of Contrast Sensitivity Functions for an Ageing Society.

    PubMed

    Joulan, Karine; Brémond, Roland; Hautière, Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    The Contrast Sensitivity Function (CSF) describes how the visibility of a grating depends on the stimulus spatial frequency. Many published CSF data have demonstrated that contrast sensitivity declines with age. However, an age-dependent analytical model of the CSF is not available to date. In this paper, we propose such an analytical CSF model based on visual mechanisms, taking into account the age factor. To this end, we have extended an existing model from Barten (1999), taking into account the dependencies of this model's optical and physiological parameters on age. Age-dependent models of the cones and ganglion cells densities, the optical and neural MTF, and optical and neural noise are proposed, based on published data. The proposed age-dependent CSF is finally tested against available experimental data, with fair results. Such an age-dependent model may be beneficial when designing real-time age-dependent image coding and display applications. PMID:26078994

  3. Towards an Analytical Age-Dependent Model of Contrast Sensitivity Functions for an Ageing Society

    PubMed Central

    Joulan, Karine; Brémond, Roland

    2015-01-01

    The Contrast Sensitivity Function (CSF) describes how the visibility of a grating depends on the stimulus spatial frequency. Many published CSF data have demonstrated that contrast sensitivity declines with age. However, an age-dependent analytical model of the CSF is not available to date. In this paper, we propose such an analytical CSF model based on visual mechanisms, taking into account the age factor. To this end, we have extended an existing model from Barten (1999), taking into account the dependencies of this model's optical and physiological parameters on age. Age-dependent models of the cones and ganglion cells densities, the optical and neural MTF, and optical and neural noise are proposed, based on published data. The proposed age-dependent CSF is finally tested against available experimental data, with fair results. Such an age-dependent model may be beneficial when designing real-time age-dependent image coding and display applications. PMID:26078994

  4. Creating Composite Age Groups to Smooth Percentile Rank Distributions of Small Samples

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lopez, Francesca; Olson, Amy; Bansal, Naveen

    2011-01-01

    Individually administered tests are often normed on small samples, a process that may result in irregularities within and across various age or grade distributions. Test users often smooth distributions guided by Thurstone assumptions (normality and linearity) to result in norms that adhere to assumptions made about how the data should look. Test…

  5. Virginia Opossums, Minimum Reproduction Age and Predators in the Penna Aging Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Altevolmer, A. K.

    Age-specific predators are introduced into the Penna model of biological aging. It is shown that populations with a variable minimum reproduction age find a stable state with an earlier onset of reproduction, if older ages are eaten by the predators. This behavior agrees with the demographic data of the Virgina opossum.

  6. A Differential Item Functional Analysis by Age of Perceived Interpersonal Discrimination in a Multi-racial/ethnic Sample of Adults.

    PubMed

    Owens, Sherry; Kristjansson, Alfgeir L; Hunte, Haslyn E R

    2015-01-01

    We investigated whether individual items on the nine item William's Perceived Everyday Discrimination Scale (EDS) functioned differently by age (<45 vs ≥ 45) within five racial groups in the United States: Asians (n=2,017); Hispanics (n=2,688); Black Caribbeans (n=1,377); African Americans (n=3,434); and Whites (n=854). We used data from the 2001-2003 National Survey of American Lives and the 2001-2003 National Latino and Asian Studies. Multiple-indicator, multiple-cause models (MIMIC) were used to examine differential item functioning (DIF) on the EDS by age within each racial/ethnic group. Overall, Asian and Hispanic respondents reported less discrimination than Whites; on the other hand, African Americans and Black Caribbeans reported more discrimination than Whites. Regardless of race/ethnicity, the younger respondents (aged <45 years) reported less discrimination than the older respondents (aged ≥ 45 years). In terms of age by race/ethnicity, the results were mixed for 19 out of 45 tests of DIF (40%). No differences in item function were observed among Black Caribbeans. "Being called names or insulted" and others acting as "if they are afraid" of the respondents were the only two items that did not exhibit differential item functioning by age across all racial/ethnic groups. Overall, our findings suggest that the EDS scale should be used with caution in multi-age multi-racial/ethnic samples.

  7. A Differential Item Functional Analysis by Age of Perceived Interpersonal Discrimination in a Multi-racial/ethnic Sample of Adults.

    PubMed

    Owens, Sherry; Kristjansson, Alfgeir L; Hunte, Haslyn E R

    2015-01-01

    We investigated whether individual items on the nine item William's Perceived Everyday Discrimination Scale (EDS) functioned differently by age (<45 vs ≥ 45) within five racial groups in the United States: Asians (n=2,017); Hispanics (n=2,688); Black Caribbeans (n=1,377); African Americans (n=3,434); and Whites (n=854). We used data from the 2001-2003 National Survey of American Lives and the 2001-2003 National Latino and Asian Studies. Multiple-indicator, multiple-cause models (MIMIC) were used to examine differential item functioning (DIF) on the EDS by age within each racial/ethnic group. Overall, Asian and Hispanic respondents reported less discrimination than Whites; on the other hand, African Americans and Black Caribbeans reported more discrimination than Whites. Regardless of race/ethnicity, the younger respondents (aged <45 years) reported less discrimination than the older respondents (aged ≥ 45 years). In terms of age by race/ethnicity, the results were mixed for 19 out of 45 tests of DIF (40%). No differences in item function were observed among Black Caribbeans. "Being called names or insulted" and others acting as "if they are afraid" of the respondents were the only two items that did not exhibit differential item functioning by age across all racial/ethnic groups. Overall, our findings suggest that the EDS scale should be used with caution in multi-age multi-racial/ethnic samples. PMID:26673317

  8. Development of a bioenergetics model for age-0 American Shad

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauter, Sally T.

    2011-01-01

    many of the salmonids and predatory fishes encountered in the lower Columbia River (Petersen and Ward 1999). The Wisconsin bioenergetics model has not been developed for American shad, however Limburg (1996) parameterized a simplified bioenergetics growth model for this species. A common application for the Wisconsin bioenergetics model is to estimate the consumption or growth of a fish population under different temperature and feeding scenarios (Ney 1993). One advantage of the bioenergetics approach is that consumption can be estimated without direct field measurements of predation rate (prey·predator-1· day-1; Petersen and Ward 1999). Field estimates of fish consumption are time consuming and costly to determine, and estimates may show wide variance due to environmental and sampling variability. However, the consumption parameters used in a newly developed bioenergetics model must be verified with field and laboratory estimates of consumption (Ney 1993).


    The objective of this research was to parameterize a Wisconsin bioenergetics model for age-0 American shad using published physiological data on American shad and closely related alosine species. The American shad bioenergetics model will be used as a tool to explore various hypotheses about how age-0 American shad directly and indirectly affect Columbia River salmon through ecological interactions in lower Columbia River food webs. One over-arching focus of the larger research project was to identify potential interactions between age-0 American shad and juvenile salmonids, addressing potential outcomes through bioenergetics modeling scenarios. This report contains two bioenergetics modeling applications to demonstrate how these models can be used to address management questions and direct research effort. The first modeling application uses the American shad bioenergetics model described in this report to explore prey consumption by age-0 American shad (Chapter 1, this report

  9. Profiles of Alzheimer's disease-related pathology in an aging urban population sample in India.

    PubMed

    Purohit, Dushyant P; Batheja, Nirmala O; Sano, Mary; Jashnani, Kusum D; Kalaria, Rajesh N; Karunamurthy, Arivarasan; Kaur, Shalinder; Shenoy, Asha S; Van Dyk, Kathleen; Schmeidler, James; Perl, Daniel P

    2011-01-01

    Systematic studies on Alzheimer's disease (AD)-related pathology that complement clinical and epidemiological data on dementia from low and middle income countries are rare. We report the first large study on AD-related pathology in autopsy service-derived brains from an urban center in India, a low/middle income country, and compare findings with a similar sample from New York. Amyloid-β plaques and neurofibrillary tangles were assessed in 91 brain specimens derived from hospital autopsy cases from Mumbai, India (age 60+ years; mean age 71.1 years, ± 8.3 SD; range 60-107 years) and compared with identically examined age-matched sample obtained in New York. These cases had no known clinical history of dementia. Our study showed that in comparison with the New York sample, the mean brain weight of the Mumbai sample was lower (p = 0.013) and mean diffuse plaque density was higher (p = 0.019), while differences in mean density and counts of neurofibrillary tangles and neuritic plaques were not statistically significant (p > 0.05). Our findings indicate that the burden of AD-related pathology was approximately equivalent in Mumbai and New York samples, which is at variance with expected lower AD-related lesion burden based on the clinical/epidemiological studies suggesting lower prevalence of AD in India.

  10. Examining the ages of M7-L8 dwarfs with the BOSS Ultracool Dwarf sample

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, Sarah J.; Hawley, Suzanne L.; West, Andrew A.; Bochanski, John J.

    2016-01-01

    We present the latest results from the BOSS Ultracool Dwarfs (BUD) sample of 12998 M7-L8 dwarfs, identified from a combination of photometry and spectroscopy from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). Using a cross-match of the BUD sample to the Two Micron All-Sky Survey (2MASS) and the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) catalogs, we measure both colors and proper motions for the majority of the sample. The proper motions, combined with radial velocities from SDSS spectra and updated distance estimates based on i-Ks colors, yield three-dimensional velocities for 9121 ultracool dwarfs. We usethese velocities as statistical proxies for age to identify and test other potential age indicators, including Hα emission, atomic line strengths, molecular band depths, and broad-band colors.

  11. On the Utilization of Sample Weights in Latent Variable Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaplan, David; Ferguson, Aaron J.

    1999-01-01

    Examines the use of sample weights in latent variable models in the case where a simple random sample is drawn from a population containing a mixture of strata through a bootstrap simulation study. Results show that ignoring weights can lead to serious bias in latent variable model parameters and reveal the advantages of using sample weights. (SLD)

  12. Automated sample plan selection for OPC modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casati, Nathalie; Gabrani, Maria; Viswanathan, Ramya; Bayraktar, Zikri; Jaiswal, Om; DeMaris, David; Abdo, Amr Y.; Oberschmidt, James; Krause, Andreas

    2014-03-01

    It is desired to reduce the time required to produce metrology data for calibration of Optical Proximity Correction (OPC) models and also maintain or improve the quality of the data collected with regard to how well that data represents the types of patterns that occur in real circuit designs. Previous work based on clustering in geometry and/or image parameter space has shown some benefit over strictly manual or intuitive selection, but leads to arbitrary pattern exclusion or selection which may not be the best representation of the product. Forming the pattern selection as an optimization problem, which co-optimizes a number of objective functions reflecting modelers' insight and expertise, has shown to produce models with equivalent quality to the traditional plan of record (POR) set but in a less time.

  13. Classical Cepheid Pulsation Models. X. The Period-Age Relation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bono, G.; Marconi, M.; Cassisi, S.; Caputo, F.; Gieren, W.; Pietrzynski, G.

    2005-03-01

    We present new period-age (PA) and period-age-color (PAC) relations for fundamental and first-overtone classical Cepheids. Current predictions rely on homogeneous sets of evolutionary and pulsation models covering a broad range of stellar masses and chemical compositions. We found that PA and PAC relations present a mild dependence on metal content. Moreover, the use of different PA and PAC relations for fundamental and first-overtone Cepheids improves the accuracy of age estimates in the short-period (logP<1) range (old Cepheids), because they present smaller intrinsic dispersions. At the same time, the use of the PAC relations improves the accuracy in the long-period (logP>=1) range (young Cepheids), since they account for the position of individual objects inside the instability strip. We performed a detailed comparison between evolutionary and pulsation ages for a sizable sample of LMC (15) and SMC (12) clusters which host at least two Cepheids. In order to avoid deceptive uncertainties in the photometric absolute zero point, we adopted the homogeneous set of B, V, and I data for clusters and Cepheids collected by OGLE. We also adopted the same reddening scale. The different age estimates agree at the level of 20% for LMC clusters and of 10% for SMC clusters. We also performed the same comparison for two Galactic clusters (NGC 6067, NGC 7790), and the difference in age is smaller than 20%. These findings support the use of PA and PAC relations to supply accurate estimates of individual stellar ages in the Galaxy and in external Galaxies. The main advantage of this approach is its independence from the distance.

  14. Sample Size Determination for Rasch Model Tests

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Draxler, Clemens

    2010-01-01

    This paper is concerned with supplementing statistical tests for the Rasch model so that additionally to the probability of the error of the first kind (Type I probability) the probability of the error of the second kind (Type II probability) can be controlled at a predetermined level by basing the test on the appropriate number of observations.…

  15. Modeling complexometric titrations of natural water samples.

    PubMed

    Hudson, Robert J M; Rue, Eden L; Bruland, Kenneth W

    2003-04-15

    Complexometric titrations are the primary source of metal speciation data for aquatic systems, yet their interpretation in waters containing humic and fulvic acids remains problematic. In particular, the accuracy of inferred ambient free metal ion concentrations and parameters quantifying metal complexation by natural ligands has been challenged because of the difficulties inherent in calibrating common analytical methods and in modeling the diverse array of ligands present. This work tests and applies a new method of modeling titration data that combines calibration of analytical sensitivity (S) and estimation of concentrations and stability constants for discrete natural ligand classes ([Li]T and Ki) into a single step using nonlinear regression and a new analytical solution to the one-metal/two-ligand equilibrium problem. When applied to jointly model data from multiple titrations conducted at different analytical windows, it yields accurate estimates of S, [Li]T, Ki, and [Cu2+] plus Monte Carlo-based estimates of the uncertainty in [Cu2+]. Jointly modeling titration data at low-and high-analytical windows leads to an efficient adaptation of the recently proposed "overload" approach to calibrating ACSV/CLE measurements. Application of the method to published data sets yields model results with greater accuracy and precision than originally obtained. The discrete ligand-class model is also re-parametrized, using humic and fulvic acids, L1 class (K1 = 10(13) M(-1)), and strong ligands (L(S)) with K(S) > K1 as "natural components". This approach suggests that Cu complexation in NW Mediterranean Sea water can be well represented as 0.8 +/- 0.3/0.2 mg humic equiv/L, 13 +/- 1 nM L1, and 2.5 +/- 0.1 nM L(S) with [CU]T = 3 nM. In coastal seawater from Narragansett Bay, RI, Cu speciation can be modeled as 0.6 +/- 0.1 mg humic equiv/L and 22 +/- 1 nM L1 or approximately 12 nM L1 and approximately 9 nM L(S), with [CU]T = 13 nM. In both waters, the large excess

  16. Rorschach comprehensive system data for a sample of 478 Iranian children at four ages.

    PubMed

    Hosseininasab, Abufazel; Mohammadi, Mohammad Reza; Weiner, Irving B; Delavar, Ali

    2015-01-01

    This article contributes to the international reference data for the Rorschach Comprehensive System by reporting the responses of 478 nonpatient Iranian children at the 4 age levels of 5 to 7, 8 to 10, 11 to 13, and 14 to 16. Interrater reliability is reported, and descriptive statistics are presented for each age level. In common with previous cross-national samples of young people, the Iranian Rorschach findings mirror several expected developmental changes, which indicates their construct validity, and show a low frequency of elevated PTI and DEPI, which limits the likelihood of Rorschach assessment suggesting serious cognitive or affective disorder when neither is present. PMID:25010000

  17. Conceptualizing age-friendly community characteristics in a sample of urban elders: an exploratory factor analysis.

    PubMed

    Smith, Richard J; Lehning, Amanda J; Dunkle, Ruth E

    2013-01-01

    Accurate conceptualization and measurement of age-friendly community characteristics would help to reduce barriers to documenting the effects on elders of interventions to create such communities. This article contributes to the measurement of age-friendly communities through an exploratory factor analysis of items reflecting an existing US Environmental Protection Agency policy framework. From a sample of urban elders (n = 1,376), we identified 6 factors associated with demographic and health characteristics: access to business and leisure, social interaction, access to health care, neighborhood problems, social support, and community engagement. Future research should explore the effects of these factors across contexts and populations.

  18. The Effect of Sample Size on Latent Growth Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hamilton, Jennifer; Gagne, Phillip E.; Hancock, Gregory R.

    A Monte Carlo simulation approach was taken to investigate the effect of sample size on a variety of latent growth models. A fully balanced experimental design was implemented, with samples drawn from multivariate normal populations specified to represent 12 unique growth models. The models varied factorially by crossing number of time points,…

  19. Track studies of samples 72255 and 72275. [age determination for lunar rocks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hutcheon, I. D.

    1974-01-01

    Optical microscopic studies of two intermediate pieces of 72255, located 1 to 3 cm below the surface, indicate an upper limit to the track exposure age of 15 to 20 m.y. A striking feature of the track studies of breccias 72255 and 72275 is the peculiar etching behavior of many of the feldspar and olivine crystals. After standard etching procedures, crystal surfaces are frequently irregular and bumpy, presumably owing to nonuniform dissolution of the surface. Although this effect was not observed in feldspars or olivines in samples from other missions, it is apparently widespread among Apollo 17 samples.

  20. A compositional and dynamic model for face aging.

    PubMed

    Suo, Jinli; Zhu, Song-Chun; Shan, Shiguang; Chen, Xilin

    2010-03-01

    In this paper, we present a compositional and dynamic model for face aging. The compositional model represents faces in each age group by a hierarchical And-Or graph, in which And nodes decompose a face into parts to describe details (e.g., hair, wrinkles, etc.) crucial for age perception and Or nodes represent large diversity of faces by alternative selections. Then a face instance is a transverse of the And-Or graph-parse graph. Face aging is modeled as a Markov process on the parse graph representation. We learn the parameters of the dynamic model from a large annotated face data set and the stochasticity of face aging is modeled in the dynamics explicitly. Based on this model, we propose a face aging simulation and prediction algorithm. Inversely, an automatic age estimation algorithm is also developed under this representation. We study two criteria to evaluate the aging results using human perception experiments: 1) the accuracy of simulation: whether the aged faces are perceived of the intended age group, and 2) preservation of identity: whether the aged faces are perceived as the same person. Quantitative statistical analysis validates the performance of our aging model and age estimation algorithm.

  1. A compositional and dynamic model for face aging.

    PubMed

    Suo, Jinli; Zhu, Song-Chun; Shan, Shiguang; Chen, Xilin

    2010-03-01

    In this paper, we present a compositional and dynamic model for face aging. The compositional model represents faces in each age group by a hierarchical And-Or graph, in which And nodes decompose a face into parts to describe details (e.g., hair, wrinkles, etc.) crucial for age perception and Or nodes represent large diversity of faces by alternative selections. Then a face instance is a transverse of the And-Or graph-parse graph. Face aging is modeled as a Markov process on the parse graph representation. We learn the parameters of the dynamic model from a large annotated face data set and the stochasticity of face aging is modeled in the dynamics explicitly. Based on this model, we propose a face aging simulation and prediction algorithm. Inversely, an automatic age estimation algorithm is also developed under this representation. We study two criteria to evaluate the aging results using human perception experiments: 1) the accuracy of simulation: whether the aged faces are perceived of the intended age group, and 2) preservation of identity: whether the aged faces are perceived as the same person. Quantitative statistical analysis validates the performance of our aging model and age estimation algorithm. PMID:20075467

  2. Mitochondrial DNA-deficient models and aging.

    PubMed

    Olgun, Abdullah; Akman, Serif

    2007-04-01

    Human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) encodes 13 subunits of oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) enzyme complexes I, III, IV, and V except complex II. MtDNA is more sensitive to oxidative damage than nuclear DNA. MtDNA defects are involved in many pathologies including aging. Several mtDNA-deficient cell culture, yeast, and animal models were generated to study the role of mtDNA in many physiological processes. Ethidium bromide (EB), an agent that is known to inhibit mtDNA replication with a negligible effect on nuclear DNA, is generally used to generate mtDNA-deficient models. The antibiotics chloramphenicol and doxycycline, which were known to inhibit mitochondrial translation, were also used to generate the same phenotype. Cultured mtDNA-deficient cells need uridine and pyruvate to survive. At the organismal level, uridine can be supplemented, but pyruvate supplementation can cause a worser phenotype because of lactic acidosis. In C. elegans, EB, when used during larval development, increases life span, but decreases, when used after the beginning of adult stage. This should be kept in mind since mitochondria-related genes are generally detected in genome-wide screening studies for longevity. We believe that conditional knockout studies need to be carried out for these genes after reaching adulthood. MtDNA mutator mouse did not show an increase of free radical production. Therefore, the downstream phenomena to mtDNA defects are likely ineffective pyrimidine synthesis (dihydroorotate dehydrogenase, DHODH, needs a functional respiratory chain) and excess NADH (decreased NAD pool) in addition to free radicals. PMID:17460185

  3. Contrast sensitivity loss with aging: sampling efficiency and equivalent noise at different spatial frequencies.

    PubMed

    Pardhan, Shahina

    2004-02-01

    The relative contributions of optical and neural factors to the decrease in visual function with aging were investigated by measurement of contrast detection at three different spatial frequencies, in the presence of external noise, on young and older subjects. Contrast detection in noise functions allows two parameters to be measured: sampling efficiency, which indicates neural changes, and equivalent noise, which demonstrates optical effects. Contrast thresholds were measured in the presence of four levels (including zero) of externally added visual noise. Measurements were obtained from eight young and eight older visually normal observers. Compared with young subjects, older subjects showed significantly (p < 0.05) lower sampling efficiencies at spatial frequencies of 1 and 4 cycles per degree (c/deg) and significantly higher equivalent noise levels for gratings of 10 c/deg. Neural and optical factors affect contrast sensitivity loss with aging differently, depending on the spatial frequency tested, implying the existence of different mechanisms.

  4. Exploring the effect of depressive symptoms and ageing on metamemory in an Italian adult sample.

    PubMed

    Fastame, Maria Chiara

    2014-01-01

    The current study aimed to investigate the effect of depression and age-related factors on metamemory measures in an Italian adult sample. Fifty-eight healthy participants were recruited in Northern Italy and were, respectively, assigned to the following groups: Young (20-30 years old), old (60-70 years old), and Very Old (71-84 years old). Participants were administered a battery of tests, including a word recall task, self-referent mnestic efficiency scales, general beliefs about memory, and depression measures. General beliefs about memory, self-efficacy, and beliefs about the control of personal memory were predicted by age, education, depression, and mnestic and cognitive efficiency. Finally, age-related differences were found in metamemory measures: the accuracy of mnestic control processes is thought to be lower by very old adults than by old and young individuals. PMID:23731341

  5. Emotional experience improves with age: evidence based on over 10 years of experience sampling.

    PubMed

    Carstensen, Laura L; Turan, Bulent; Scheibe, Susanne; Ram, Nilam; Ersner-Hershfield, Hal; Samanez-Larkin, Gregory R; Brooks, Kathryn P; Nesselroade, John R

    2011-03-01

    Recent evidence suggests that emotional well-being improves from early adulthood to old age. This study used experience-sampling to examine the developmental course of emotional experience in a representative sample of adults spanning early to very late adulthood. Participants (N = 184, Wave 1; N = 191, Wave 2; N = 178, Wave 3) reported their emotional states at five randomly selected times each day for a one week period. Using a measurement burst design, the one-week sampling procedure was repeated five and then ten years later. Cross-sectional and growth curve analyses indicate that aging is associated with more positive overall emotional well-being, with greater emotional stability and with more complexity (as evidenced by greater co-occurrence of positive and negative emotions). These findings remained robust after accounting for other variables that may be related to emotional experience (personality, verbal fluency, physical health, and demographic variables). Finally, emotional experience predicted mortality; controlling for age, sex, and ethnicity, individuals who experienced relatively more positive than negative emotions in everyday life were more likely to have survived over a 13 year period. Findings are discussed in the theoretical context of socioemotional selectivity theory.

  6. Emotional experience improves with age: evidence based on over 10 years of experience sampling.

    PubMed

    Carstensen, Laura L; Turan, Bulent; Scheibe, Susanne; Ram, Nilam; Ersner-Hershfield, Hal; Samanez-Larkin, Gregory R; Brooks, Kathryn P; Nesselroade, John R

    2011-03-01

    Recent evidence suggests that emotional well-being improves from early adulthood to old age. This study used experience-sampling to examine the developmental course of emotional experience in a representative sample of adults spanning early to very late adulthood. Participants (N = 184, Wave 1; N = 191, Wave 2; N = 178, Wave 3) reported their emotional states at five randomly selected times each day for a one week period. Using a measurement burst design, the one-week sampling procedure was repeated five and then ten years later. Cross-sectional and growth curve analyses indicate that aging is associated with more positive overall emotional well-being, with greater emotional stability and with more complexity (as evidenced by greater co-occurrence of positive and negative emotions). These findings remained robust after accounting for other variables that may be related to emotional experience (personality, verbal fluency, physical health, and demographic variables). Finally, emotional experience predicted mortality; controlling for age, sex, and ethnicity, individuals who experienced relatively more positive than negative emotions in everyday life were more likely to have survived over a 13 year period. Findings are discussed in the theoretical context of socioemotional selectivity theory. PMID:20973600

  7. Emotional Experience Improves With Age: Evidence Based on Over 10 Years of Experience Sampling

    PubMed Central

    Carstensen, Laura L.; Turan, Bulent; Scheibe, Susanne; Ram, Nilam; Ersner-Hershfield, Hal; Samanez-Larkin, Gregory R.; Brooks, Kathryn P.; Nesselroade, John R.

    2012-01-01

    Recent evidence suggests that emotional well-being improves from early adulthood to old age. This study used experience-sampling to examine the developmental course of emotional experience in a representative sample of adults spanning early to very late adulthood. Participants (N = 184, Wave 1; N = 191, Wave 2; N = 178, Wave 3) reported their emotional states at five randomly selected times each day for a one week period. Using a measurement burst design, the one-week sampling procedure was repeated five and then ten years later. Cross-sectional and growth curve analyses indicate that aging is associated with more positive overall emotional well-being, with greater emotional stability and with more complexity (as evidenced by greater co-occurrence of positive and negative emotions). These findings remained robust after accounting for other variables that may be related to emotional experience (personality, verbal fluency, physical health, and demographic variables). Finally, emotional experience predicted mortality; controlling for age, sex, and ethnicity, individuals who experienced relatively more positive than negative emotions in everyday life were more likely to have survived over a 13 year period. Findings are discussed in the theoretical context of socioemotional selectivity theory. PMID:20973600

  8. Radiocarbon ages and age models for the past 30,000 years in Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Colman, Steven M.; Rosenbaum, J.G.; Kaufman, D.S.; Dean, W.E.; McGeehin, J.P.

    2009-01-01

    Radiocarbon analyses of pollen, ostracodes, and total organic carbon (TOC) provide a reliable chronology for the sediments deposited in Bear Lake over the past 30,000 years. The differences in apparent age between TOC, pollen, and carbonate fractions are consistent and in accord with the origins of these fractions. Comparisons among different fractions indicate that pollen sample ages are the most reliable, at least for the past 15,000 years. The post-glacial radiocarbon data also agree with ages independently estimated from aspartic acid racemization in ostracodes. Ages in the red, siliclastic unit, inferred to be of last glacial age, appear to be several thousand years too old, probably because of a high proportion of reworked, refractory organic carbon in the pollen samples. Age-depth models for five piston cores and the Bear Lake drill core (BL00-1) were constructed by using two methods: quadratic equations and smooth cubic-splinefits. The two types of age models differ only in detail for individual cores, and each approach has its own advantages. Specific lithological horizons were dated in several cores and correlated among them, producing robust average ages for these horizons. The age of the correlated horizons in the red, siliclastic unit can be estimated from the age model for BL00-1, which is controlled by ages above and below the red, siliclastic unit. These ages were then transferred to the correlative horizons in the shorter piston cores, providing control for the sections of the age models in those cores in the red, siliclastic unit. These age models are the backbone for reconstructions of past environmental conditions in Bear Lake. In general, sedimentation rates in Bear Lake have been quite uniform, mostly between 0.3 and 0.8 mm yr-1 in the Holocene, and close to 0.5 mm yr-1 for the longer sedimentary record in the drill core from the deepest part of the lake. Copyright ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

  9. Age and compositional data of zircon from sepiolite drilling mud to identify contamination of ocean drilling samples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrews, Graham D. M.; Schmitt, Axel K.; Busby, Cathy J.; Brown, Sarah R.; Blum, Peter; Harvey, Janet. C.

    2016-08-01

    Zircon extracted from drilled oceanic rocks is increasingly used to answer geologic questions related to igneous and sedimentary sequences. Recent zircon studies using samples obtained from marine drill cores revealed that drilling muds used in the coring process may contaminate the samples. The JOIDES Resolution Science Operator of the International Ocean Discovery Program has been using two types of clays, sepiolite and attapulgite, which both have salt water viscosifier properties able to create a gel-like slurry that carries drill cuttings out of the holes several hundred meters deep. The dominantly used drilling mud is sepiolite originating from southwestern Nevada, USA. This sepiolite contains abundant zircon crystals with U-Pb ages ranging from 1.89 to 2889 Ma and continental trace element, δ18O, and ɛHf isotopic compositions. A dominant population of 11-16 Ma zircons in sepiolite drilling mud makes identification of contamination in drilled Neogene successions particularly challenging. Interpretation of zircon analyses related to ocean drilling should be cautious of zircon ages in violation of independently constrained age models and that have age populations overlapping those in the sepiolite. Because individual geochronologic and geochemical characteristics lack absolute discriminatory power, it is recommended to comprehensively analyze all dated zircon crystals from cores exposed to drill mud for trace element, δ18O, and ɛHf isotopic compositions. Zircon analyzed in situ (i.e., in petrographic sections) are assumed to be trustworthy.

  10. Digital Coordinates and Age for 3,869 Foraminifer Samples Collected by Chevron Petroleum Geologists in Washington and Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    West, William B.; Brabb, Earl E.; Malmborg, William T.; Parker, John M.

    2009-01-01

    The general location and age of more than 33,500 mostly foraminifer samples from Chevron Petroleum Company surface localities in California were provided by Brabb and Parker (2003, 2005). Malmborg and others (2008) provided digital latitude, longitude, and age for more than 13,000 of these samples. We provide here for the first time the digital latitude, longitude, and age for nearly 4,000 Chevron surface and auger samples in Washington and Oregon.

  11. Damages dependent sensitivity of Zircon (U-Th)/He ages to thermal processes: the case of Pyrenean samples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pik, Raphael; Zimmermann, Laurent; Bellahsen, Nicolas; Vacherat, Arnaud; Ternois, Sébastien; Mouthereau, Frédéric; Ford, Mary

    2016-04-01

    Guenthner et al. 4, yet it is not possible to fit the data with a t-T history constrained by independent parameters (age of granites, old exhumation period followed by Cretaceous sediment burial). Even considering the maximum alpha-dose experienced by the samples (i.e. produced by the grains since granites emplaced without any annealing), the inversion of positive to negative trends in Bielsa and Neouvielle samples is centered at about 2 - 3 x 1017 alpha/g, significantly lower than the value used in the models 3,4. Preliminary Raman Spectroscopy data indicate that the total amount of damages experienced by these samples is well correlated with this double-trend pattern, and in the range of values used for quantification of the model with experimental diffusion data. These data from Pyrenean granites represent a good and independently constrained dataset to test the new complex models of age simulation and to optimize their calibration. They suggest in particular that the quantification, nature and preservation of damages acting for the modulation of He diffusion in zircons should be investigated and documented more extensively in the future.

  12. Stability of human α-salivary amylase in aged forensic samples.

    PubMed

    Carboni, Ilaria; Rapi, Stefano; Ricci, Ugo

    2014-07-01

    The unequivocal tissue identification in forensic casework samples is a key step for crime scene reconstruction. Just knowing the origin of a fluid can sometimes be enough to either prove or disprove a fact in court. Despite the importance of this test, very few data are available in literature concerning human saliva identification in old forensic caseworks. In this work the stability of human α-amylase activity in aged samples is described by using three different methods integrated with DNA profiling techniques. This analytical protocol was successfully applied on 26-years old samples coming from anonymous threat letters sent to prosecutors who were working on "the Monster of Florence", a case of serial murders happened around Florence (Italy) between 1968 and 1985. PMID:24755314

  13. Biological implications of the Weibull and Gompertz models of aging.

    PubMed

    Ricklefs, Robert E; Scheuerlein, Alex

    2002-02-01

    Gompertz and Weibull functions imply contrasting biological causes of demographic aging. The terms describing increasing mortality with age are multiplicative and additive, respectively, which could result from an increase in the vulnerability of individuals to extrinsic causes in the Gompertz model and the predominance of intrinsic causes at older ages in the Weibull model. Experiments that manipulate extrinsic mortality can distinguish these biological models. To facilitate analyses of experimental data, we defined a single index for the rate of aging (omega) for the Weibull and Gompertz functions. Each function described the increase in aging-related mortality in simulated ages at death reasonably well. However, in contrast to the Weibull omega(W), the Gompertz omega(G) was sensitive to variation in the initial mortality rate independently of aging-related mortality. Comparisons between wild and captive populations appear to support the intrinsic-causes model for birds, but give mixed support for both models in mammals.

  14. Preliminary Proactive Sample Size Determination for Confirmatory Factor Analysis Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koran, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Proactive preliminary minimum sample size determination can be useful for the early planning stages of a latent variable modeling study to set a realistic scope, long before the model and population are finalized. This study examined existing methods and proposed a new method for proactive preliminary minimum sample size determination.

  15. Modeling the Phenotypic Architecture of Autism Symptoms from Time of Diagnosis to Age 6

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Georgiades, Stelios; Boyle, Michael; Szatmari, Peter; Hanna, Steven; Duku, Eric; Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie; Bryson, Susan; Fombonne, Eric; Volden, Joanne; Mirenda, Pat; Smith, Isabel; Roberts, Wendy; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Waddell, Charlotte; Bennett, Teresa; Elsabbagh, Mayada; Thompson, Ann

    2014-01-01

    The latent class structure of autism symptoms from the time of diagnosis to age 6 years was examined in a sample of 280 children with autism spectrum disorder. Factor mixture modeling was performed on 26 algorithm items from the Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised at diagnosis (Time 1) and again at age 6 (Time 2). At Time 1, a…

  16. Sample size matters: Investigating the optimal sample size for a logistic regression debris flow susceptibility model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heckmann, Tobias; Gegg, Katharina; Becht, Michael

    2013-04-01

    Statistical approaches to landslide susceptibility modelling on the catchment and regional scale are used very frequently compared to heuristic and physically based approaches. In the present study, we deal with the problem of the optimal sample size for a logistic regression model. More specifically, a stepwise approach has been chosen in order to select those independent variables (from a number of derivatives of a digital elevation model and landcover data) that explain best the spatial distribution of debris flow initiation zones in two neighbouring central alpine catchments in Austria (used mutually for model calculation and validation). In order to minimise problems arising from spatial autocorrelation, we sample a single raster cell from each debris flow initiation zone within an inventory. In addition, as suggested by previous work using the "rare events logistic regression" approach, we take a sample of the remaining "non-event" raster cells. The recommendations given in the literature on the size of this sample appear to be motivated by practical considerations, e.g. the time and cost of acquiring data for non-event cases, which do not apply to the case of spatial data. In our study, we aim at finding empirically an "optimal" sample size in order to avoid two problems: First, a sample too large will violate the independent sample assumption as the independent variables are spatially autocorrelated; hence, a variogram analysis leads to a sample size threshold above which the average distance between sampled cells falls below the autocorrelation range of the independent variables. Second, if the sample is too small, repeated sampling will lead to very different results, i.e. the independent variables and hence the result of a single model calculation will be extremely dependent on the choice of non-event cells. Using a Monte-Carlo analysis with stepwise logistic regression, 1000 models are calculated for a wide range of sample sizes. For each sample size

  17. Predictors of Retest Effects in a Longitudinal Study of Cognitive Aging in a Diverse Community-Based Sample.

    PubMed

    Gross, Alden L; Benitez, Andreana; Shih, Regina; Bangen, Katherine J; Glymour, M Maria M; Sachs, Bonnie; Sisco, Shannon; Skinner, Jeannine; Schneider, Brooke C; Manly, Jennifer J

    2015-08-01

    Better performance due to repeated testing can bias long-term trajectories of cognitive aging and correlates of change. We examined whether retest effects differ as a function of individual differences pertinent to cognitive aging: race/ethnicity, age, sex, language, years of education, literacy, and dementia risk factors including apolipoprotein E ε4 status, baseline cognitive performance, and cardiovascular risk. We used data from the Washington Heights-Inwood Columbia Aging Project, a community-based cohort of older adults (n=4073). We modeled cognitive change and retest effects in summary factors for general cognitive performance, memory, executive functioning, and language using multilevel models. Retest effects were parameterized in two ways, as improvement between the first and subsequent testings, and as the square root of the number of prior testings. We evaluated whether the retest effect differed by individual characteristics. The mean retest effect for general cognitive performance was 0.60 standard deviations (95% confidence interval [0.46, 0.74]), and was similar for memory, executive functioning, and language. Retest effects were greater for participants in the lowest quartile of cognitive performance (many of whom met criteria for dementia based on a study algorithm), consistent with regression to the mean. Retest did not differ by other characteristics. Retest effects are large in this community-based sample, but do not vary by demographic or dementia-related characteristics. Differential retest effects may not limit the generalizability of inferences across different groups in longitudinal research.

  18. Predictors of Retest Effects in a Longitudinal Study of Cognitive Aging in a Diverse Community-Based Sample.

    PubMed

    Gross, Alden L; Benitez, Andreana; Shih, Regina; Bangen, Katherine J; Glymour, M Maria M; Sachs, Bonnie; Sisco, Shannon; Skinner, Jeannine; Schneider, Brooke C; Manly, Jennifer J

    2015-08-01

    Better performance due to repeated testing can bias long-term trajectories of cognitive aging and correlates of change. We examined whether retest effects differ as a function of individual differences pertinent to cognitive aging: race/ethnicity, age, sex, language, years of education, literacy, and dementia risk factors including apolipoprotein E ε4 status, baseline cognitive performance, and cardiovascular risk. We used data from the Washington Heights-Inwood Columbia Aging Project, a community-based cohort of older adults (n=4073). We modeled cognitive change and retest effects in summary factors for general cognitive performance, memory, executive functioning, and language using multilevel models. Retest effects were parameterized in two ways, as improvement between the first and subsequent testings, and as the square root of the number of prior testings. We evaluated whether the retest effect differed by individual characteristics. The mean retest effect for general cognitive performance was 0.60 standard deviations (95% confidence interval [0.46, 0.74]), and was similar for memory, executive functioning, and language. Retest effects were greater for participants in the lowest quartile of cognitive performance (many of whom met criteria for dementia based on a study algorithm), consistent with regression to the mean. Retest did not differ by other characteristics. Retest effects are large in this community-based sample, but do not vary by demographic or dementia-related characteristics. Differential retest effects may not limit the generalizability of inferences across different groups in longitudinal research. PMID:26527240

  19. Age at Trauma Exposure and PTSD Risk in a Young Adult Female Sample

    PubMed Central

    McCutcheon, Vivia V.; Sartor, Carolyn E.; Pommer, Nicole E.; Bucholz, Kathleen K.; Nelson, Elliot C.; Madden, Pamela A.F.; Heath, Andrew C.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of the current study was to test the independent and joint contributions of 8 different types of trauma to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) risk using data from a young adult female cohort. Associations of traumatic events with PTSD onset were examined using Cox proportional hazards models. Differences in risk as a function of age at trauma were tested. Childhood sexual assault, physical abuse, and neglect were stronger predictors of PTSD onset than adolescent/early adult occurrence of these events in individual models. In a model including all traumatic events, differential risk by age remained for sexual assault and physical abuse. Early sexual assault was the strongest predictor of risk but additional traumatic events increased risk even in its presence. PMID:20963847

  20. Preferential sampling and Bayesian geostatistics: Statistical modeling and examples.

    PubMed

    Cecconi, Lorenzo; Grisotto, Laura; Catelan, Dolores; Lagazio, Corrado; Berrocal, Veronica; Biggeri, Annibale

    2016-08-01

    Preferential sampling refers to any situation in which the spatial process and the sampling locations are not stochastically independent. In this paper, we present two examples of geostatistical analysis in which the usual assumption of stochastic independence between the point process and the measurement process is violated. To account for preferential sampling, we specify a flexible and general Bayesian geostatistical model that includes a shared spatial random component. We apply the proposed model to two different case studies that allow us to highlight three different modeling and inferential aspects of geostatistical modeling under preferential sampling: (1) continuous or finite spatial sampling frame; (2) underlying causal model and relevant covariates; and (3) inferential goals related to mean prediction surface or prediction uncertainty.

  1. Preferential sampling and Bayesian geostatistics: Statistical modeling and examples.

    PubMed

    Cecconi, Lorenzo; Grisotto, Laura; Catelan, Dolores; Lagazio, Corrado; Berrocal, Veronica; Biggeri, Annibale

    2016-08-01

    Preferential sampling refers to any situation in which the spatial process and the sampling locations are not stochastically independent. In this paper, we present two examples of geostatistical analysis in which the usual assumption of stochastic independence between the point process and the measurement process is violated. To account for preferential sampling, we specify a flexible and general Bayesian geostatistical model that includes a shared spatial random component. We apply the proposed model to two different case studies that allow us to highlight three different modeling and inferential aspects of geostatistical modeling under preferential sampling: (1) continuous or finite spatial sampling frame; (2) underlying causal model and relevant covariates; and (3) inferential goals related to mean prediction surface or prediction uncertainty. PMID:27566774

  2. Additive quantification on polymer thin films by ToF-SIMS: aging sample effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poleunis, Claude; Médard, Nicolas; Bertrand, Patrick

    2004-06-01

    Thin films (150 nm) of an amorphous polyester (polyethylene(terephthalate-isophthalate)) containing variable concentrations of an antioxidant (Irgafos™ 168) and a UV-stabilizer (Hostavin™ N30) have been prepared by spin-coating. Time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) results showed, in the case of a single additive system (antioxidant), that the additive intensity increased on the polymer surface during the first five aging days (exudation phenomenon), followed by an intensity decrease, which was related to the adsorption of hydrocarbon contaminations on the sample surface. This kinetic competition was observed whatever the used additive concentration. In the case of the binary additive system (antioxidant and UV-stabilizer), the antioxidant behavior was similar to the single additive system, whereas, the UV-stabilizer evolution corresponded to an additive depletion, followed by an exudation. These results indicate that it is necessary to be very careful when comparing ToF-SIMS data for additive quantification on polymer surfaces. It is strongly recommended to compare samples having the same aging time, because the surface composition was seen to be strongly dependent of the aging time.

  3. An environmental sampling model for combining judgment and randomly placed samples

    SciTech Connect

    Sego, Landon H.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Matzke, Brett D.; Sieber, Karl; Shulman, Stanley; Bennett, James; Gillen, M.; Wilson, John E.; Pulsipher, Brent A.

    2007-08-23

    In the event of the release of a lethal agent (such as anthrax) inside a building, law enforcement and public health responders take samples to identify and characterize the contamination. Sample locations may be rapidly chosen based on available incident details and professional judgment. To achieve greater confidence of whether or not a room or zone was contaminated, or to certify that detectable contamination is not present after decontamination, we consider a Bayesian model for combining the information gained from both judgment and randomly placed samples. We investigate the sensitivity of the model to the parameter inputs and make recommendations for its practical use.

  4. A re-examination of cremains weight: sex and age variation in a Northern California sample.

    PubMed

    Van Deest, Traci L; Murad, Turhon A; Bartelink, Eric J

    2011-03-01

    The reduction of modern commercially cremated remains into a fine powder negates the use of traditional methods of skeletal analysis. The literature on the use of cremains weight for estimating aspects of the biologic profile is limited, often with conflicting results. This study re-evaluates the value of weight in the assessment of biologic parameters from modern cremated remains. A sample of adults was collected in northern California (n = 756), with a cremains weight averaging 2737.1 g. Males were significantly heavier than females (mean = 3233.2 g versus mean = 2238.3 g, respectively; p<0.001). Comparison of this sample with other previously reported samples from southern California, Florida, and Tennessee indicates a consistent sex difference, with the most similar mean values to the Tennessee study. Although cremains weight decreases with age as expected, the relationship is weak; thus, cremains weight cannot accurately predict age-at-death. While sex estimation shows considerable accuracy (86.3% for males and 80.9% for females), sectioning points may be population specific.

  5. Lower groundwater ¹⁴C age by atmospheric CO₂ uptake during sampling and analysis.

    PubMed

    Aggarwal, Pradeep K; Araguas-Araguas, Luis; Choudhry, Manzoor; van Duren, Michel; Froehlich, Klaus

    2014-01-01

    Uptake of atmospheric CO₂ during sample collection and analysis, and consequent lowering of estimated ages, has rarely been considered in radiocarbon dating of groundwater. Using field and laboratory experiments, we show that atmospheric CO₂ can be easily and rapidly absorbed in hyperalkaline solutions used for the extraction of dissolved inorganic carbon, resulting in elevated ¹⁴C measurements. Kinetic isotope fractionation during atmospheric CO₂ uptake may also result in decrease of δ¹³C, leading to insufficient corrections for addition of dead carbon by geochemical processes. Consequently, measured ¹⁴C values of groundwater should not be used for age estimation without corresponding δ¹³C values, and historical ¹⁴C data in the range of 1 to 10% modern Carbon should be re-evaluated to ensure that samples with atmospheric contamination are recognized appropriately. We recommend that samples for ¹⁴C analysis should be collected and processed in the field and the laboratory without exposure to the atmosphere. These precautions are considered necessary even if ¹⁴C measurements are made with an accelerator mass spectrometer.

  6. A re-examination of cremains weight: sex and age variation in a Northern California sample.

    PubMed

    Van Deest, Traci L; Murad, Turhon A; Bartelink, Eric J

    2011-03-01

    The reduction of modern commercially cremated remains into a fine powder negates the use of traditional methods of skeletal analysis. The literature on the use of cremains weight for estimating aspects of the biologic profile is limited, often with conflicting results. This study re-evaluates the value of weight in the assessment of biologic parameters from modern cremated remains. A sample of adults was collected in northern California (n = 756), with a cremains weight averaging 2737.1 g. Males were significantly heavier than females (mean = 3233.2 g versus mean = 2238.3 g, respectively; p<0.001). Comparison of this sample with other previously reported samples from southern California, Florida, and Tennessee indicates a consistent sex difference, with the most similar mean values to the Tennessee study. Although cremains weight decreases with age as expected, the relationship is weak; thus, cremains weight cannot accurately predict age-at-death. While sex estimation shows considerable accuracy (86.3% for males and 80.9% for females), sectioning points may be population specific. PMID:21265835

  7. Location and Age Database for Selected Foraminifer Samples Collected by Exxon Petroleum Geologists in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brabb, Earl E.; Parker, John M.

    2003-01-01

    Most of the geologic maps published for central California before 1960 were made without the benefit of age determinations from microfossils. The ages of Cretaceous and Tertiary rocks in the mostly poorly exposed and structurally complex sedimentary rocks represented in the Coast Ranges are critical in determining stratigraphic succession or lack of it, and in determining whether the juxtaposition of similar appearing but different age formations means a fault is present. Since the 1930’s, at least, oil company geologists have used microfossils to assist them in geologic mapping and in determining the environments of deposition of the sediment containing the microfossils. This information has been so confidential that some companies even coded the names of foraminifers to prevent disclosure. In the past 20 years, however, the attitude of petroleum companies about this information has changed, and many of the formerly confidential materials and reports are now available. We report here on 1,964 Exxon foraminifer samples mostly from surface localities in the San Francisco Bay region, and elsewhere in California. Most but not all the samples were plotted on U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) 7.5’ topographic maps or on obsolete USGS 15’ maps. The information from the slides can be used to update geologic maps prepared without the benefit of microfossil data, to analyze the depth and temperature of ocean water covering parts of California during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic Eras, and for solving nomenclature and other scientific problems. A similar report on more than 30,000 slides for surface samples collected by Chevron geologists has been released (Brabb and Parker, 2003), and another report provides information on slides for more than 2000 oil test wells in Northern California (Brabb, Powell, and Brocher, 2001).

  8. Association between Caregiving, Meaning in Life, and Life Satisfaction beyond 50 in an Asian Sample: Age as a Moderator

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ang, Rebecca P.; O, Jiaqing

    2012-01-01

    The association between caregiving, meaning in life, and life satisfaction was examined in sample of 519 older Asian adults beyond 50 years of age. Two hierarchical multiple regression analyses were conducted to examine age as moderator of the associations between caregiving, meaning in life, and life satisfaction. Age moderated the association…

  9. Modeling Active Aging and Explicit Memory: An Empirical Study.

    PubMed

    Ponce de León, Laura Ponce; Lévy, Jean Pierre; Fernández, Tomás; Ballesteros, Soledad

    2015-08-01

    The rapid growth of the population of older adults and their concomitant psychological status and health needs have captured the attention of researchers and health professionals. To help fill the void of literature available to social workers interested in mental health promotion and aging, the authors provide a model for active aging that uses psychosocial variables. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the relationships among the latent variables of the state of explicit memory, the perception of social resources, depression, and the perception of quality of life in a sample of 184 older adults. The results suggest that explicit memory is not a direct indicator of the perception of quality of life, but it could be considered an indirect indicator as it is positively correlated with perception of social resources and negatively correlated with depression. These last two variables influenced the perception of quality of life directly, the former positively and the latter negatively. The main outcome suggests that the perception of social support improves explicit memory and quality of life and reduces depression in active older adults. The findings also suggest that gerontological professionals should design memory training programs, improve available social resources, and offer environments with opportunities to exercise memory.

  10. Efficacy of Female Rat Models in Translational Cardiovascular Aging Research

    PubMed Central

    Rice, K. M.; Fannin, J. C.; Gillette, C.; Blough, E. R.

    2014-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in women in the United States. Aging is a primary risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease as well as cardiovascular-related morbidity and mortality. Aging is a universal process that all humans undergo; however, research in aging is limited by cost and time constraints. Therefore, most research in aging has been done in primates and rodents; however it is unknown how well the effects of aging in rat models translate into humans. To compound the complication of aging gender has also been indicated as a risk factor for various cardiovascular diseases. This review addresses the systemic pathophysiology of the cardiovascular system associated with aging and gender for aging research with regard to the applicability of rat derived data for translational application to human aging. PMID:25610649

  11. Wake Up Time, Light, and Mood in a Population Sample Age 40-64 Years

    PubMed Central

    Endo, Takuro; Ancoli-Israel, Sonia

    2015-01-01

    Objective Concern that disturbances of sleep and light exposures at night might increase cancer risks have been expressed, but little actual exposure data has been collected. Measurements from a representative population sample were examined to understand the magnitude of in-bed light exposure at night and possible correlates. Methods From 1990 to 1994, a home survey of sleep disorders among adults ages 40-64 was conducted in the City of San Diego California, using stratified representative sampling techniques. Along with questionnaires, sleep logs, and 3-night wrist activity and pulse oximetry measures, bedside illumination was measured with a computer recording system. Questionnaires included the CESD depression scale and a scale of symptoms typical of winter depression. Results Complete data were available from 286 men and women, whose mean in-bed intervals averaged 7 hours and 42 minutes. The mean room illumination during the first part of the night was mean 12.7 lux (median 3.2 lux) and during the last 2 hours in bed averaged 28.7 lux (median 18.9 lux). Nocturnal light exposure was positively correlated with age, male gender, summer season, time in bed, wake-up time, and depressive symptoms. Conclusion Complex bi-directional interactions may take place between sleep disturbances, depression, time in bed, wake-up-time, and in-bed illumination. The most crucial light exposures appear to occur in the last 2 hours in bed, largely after dawn, so daylight exposure may be an important factor. PMID:25866517

  12. Age, memory type, and the phenomenology of autobiographical memory: findings from an Italian sample.

    PubMed

    Montebarocci, Ornella; Luchetti, Martina; Sutin, Angelina R

    2014-01-01

    The present research explored differences in phenomenology between two types of memories, a general self-defining memory and an earliest childhood memory. A sample of 76 Italian participants were selected and categorised into two age groups: 20-30 years and 31-40 years. The Memory Experiences Questionnaire (MEQ) was administered, taking note of latency and duration times of the narratives. Consistent with the literature, the self-defining memory differed significantly from the earliest childhood memory in terms of phenomenology, with the recency of the memory associated with more intense phenomenological experience. The self-defining memory took longer to retrieve and narrate than the earliest childhood memory. Meaningful differences also emerged between the two age groups: Participants in their 30s rated their self-defining memory as more vivid, coherent, and accessible than participants in their 20s. According to latency findings, these differences suggest an expanded period of identity consolidation for younger adults. Further applications of the MEQ should be carried out to replicate these results with other samples of young adults.

  13. Space Weathering of Olivine: Samples, Experiments and Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keller, L. P.; Berger, E. L.; Christoffersen, R.

    2016-01-01

    Olivine is a major constituent of chondritic bodies and its response to space weathering processes likely dominates the optical properties of asteroid regoliths (e.g. S- and many C-type asteroids). Analyses of olivine in returned samples and laboratory experiments provide details and insights regarding the mechanisms and rates of space weathering. Analyses of olivine grains from lunar soils and asteroid Itokawa reveal that they display solar wind damaged rims that are typically not amorphized despite long surface exposure ages, which are inferred from solar flare track densities (up to 10 (sup 7 y)). The olivine damaged rim width rapidly approaches approximately 120 nm in approximately 10 (sup 6 y) and then reaches steady-state with longer exposure times. The damaged rims are nanocrystalline with high dislocation densities, but crystalline order exists up to the outermost exposed surface. Sparse nanophase Fe metal inclusions occur in the damaged rims and are believed to be produced during irradiation through preferential sputtering of oxygen from the rims. The observed space weathering effects in lunar and Itokawa olivine grains are difficult to reconcile with laboratory irradiation studies and our numerical models that indicate that olivine surfaces should readily blister and amorphize on relatively short time scales (less than 10 (sup 3 y)). These results suggest that it is not just the ion fluence alone, but other variable, the ion flux that controls the type and extent of irradiation damage that develops in olivine. This flux dependence argues for caution in extrapolating between high flux laboratory experiments and the natural case. Additional measurements, experiments, and modeling are required to resolve the discrepancies among the observations and calculations involving solar wind processing of olivine.

  14. Performance of Random Effects Model Estimators under Complex Sampling Designs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jia, Yue; Stokes, Lynne; Harris, Ian; Wang, Yan

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we consider estimation of parameters of random effects models from samples collected via complex multistage designs. Incorporation of sampling weights is one way to reduce estimation bias due to unequal probabilities of selection. Several weighting methods have been proposed in the literature for estimating the parameters of…

  15. Age and gender specific biokinetic model for strontium in humans.

    PubMed

    Shagina, N B; Tolstykh, E I; Degteva, M O; Anspaugh, L R; Napier, B A

    2015-03-01

    A biokinetic model for strontium in humans is necessary for quantification of internal doses due to strontium radioisotopes. The ICRP-recommended biokinetic model for strontium has limitations for use in a population study, because it is not gender specific and does not cover all age ranges. The extensive Techa River data set on (90)Sr in humans (tens of thousands of measurements) is a unique source of data on long-term strontium retention for men and women of all ages at intake. These, as well as published data, were used for evaluation of age- and gender-specific parameters for a new compartment biokinetic model for strontium (Sr-AGe model). The Sr-AGe model has a similar structure to the ICRP model for the alkaline earth elements. The following parameters were mainly re-evaluated: gastrointestinal absorption and parameters related to the processes of bone formation and resorption defining calcium and strontium transfers in skeletal compartments. The Sr-AGe model satisfactorily describes available data sets on strontium retention for different kinds of intake (dietary and intravenous) at different ages (0-80 years old) and demonstrates good agreement with data sets for different ethnic groups. The Sr-AGe model can be used for dose assessment in epidemiological studies of general populations exposed to ingested strontium radioisotopes.

  16. Age and gender specific biokinetic model for strontium in humans

    SciTech Connect

    Shagina, N. B.; Tolstykh, E. I.; Degteva, M. O.; Anspaugh, L. R.; Napier, Bruce A.

    2015-03-01

    A biokinetic model for strontium in humans is necessary for quantification of internal doses due to strontium radioisotopes. The ICRP-recommended biokinetic model for strontium has limitation for use in a population study, because it is not gender specific and does not cover all age ranges. The extensive Techa River data set on 90Sr in humans (tens of thousands of measurements) is a unique source of data on long-term strontium retention for men and women of all ages at intake. These, as well as published data, were used for evaluation of age- and gender-specific parameters for a new compartment biokinetic model for strontium (Sr-AGe model). The Sr-AGe model has similar structure as the ICRP model for the alkaline earth elements. The following parameters were mainly reevaluated: gastro-intestinal absorption and parameters related to the processes of bone formation and resorption defining calcium and strontium transfers in skeletal compartments. The Sr-AGe model satisfactorily describes available data sets on strontium retention for different kinds of intake (dietary and intravenous) at different ages (0–80 years old) and demonstrates good agreement with data sets for different ethnic groups. The Sr-AGe model can be used for dose assessment in epidemiological studies of general population exposed to ingested strontium radioisotopes.

  17. Dynamical Masses of Young Stars. I. Discordant Model Ages of Upper Scorpius

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rizzuto, Aaron C.; Ireland, Michael J.; Dupuy, Trent J.; Kraus, Adam L.

    2016-02-01

    We present the results of a long-term orbit monitoring program, using sparse aperture masking observations taken with NIRC2 on the Keck-II telescope, of seven G- to M-type members of the Upper Scorpius subgroup of the Sco-Cen OB association. We present astrometry and derived orbital elements of the binary systems we have monitored, and also determine the age, component masses, distance, and reddening for each system using the orbital solutions and multi-band photometry, including Hubble Space Telescope photometry, and a Bayesian fitting procedure. We find that the models can be forced into agreement with any individual system by assuming an age, but that age is not consistent across the mass range of our sample. The G-type binary systems in our sample have model ages of ˜11.5 Myr, which is consistent with the latest age estimates for Upper Scorpius, while the M-type binary systems have significantly younger model ages of ˜7 Myr. Based on our fits, this age discrepancy in the models corresponds to a luminosity underprediction of 0.8-0.15 dex, or equivalently an effective temperature overprediction of 100-300 K for M-type stars at a given pre-main-sequence age. We also find that the M-type binary system RXJ 1550.0-2312 has an age (˜16 Myr) and distance (˜85 pc) consistent with membership in the Upper Centaurus Lupus subgroup.

  18. Aging and integrating spatial mental models.

    PubMed

    Copeland, David E; Radvansky, Gabriel A

    2007-09-01

    Previous research examining the process of integrating spatial information has suggested that older adults retain an ability to use mental models despite declines in working memory capacity. In the current study of both older and young adults, the authors assessed whether mental model performance declines when working memory limitations affect the ability to retain the information needed to initially construct a model. Participants were presented with 3 spatial descriptions that could have been integrated to form a single mental model (e.g., K. Ehrlich & P. N. Johnson-Laird, 1982). Descriptions were continuous (i.e., AB-BC-CD) or discontinuous (i.e., AB-CD-BC) in various stimulus formats: sentences, word diagrams, and pictures. Across the experiments, older adults showed difficulty integrating information, especially in the discontinuous condition, unless pictures were used. The results suggest that older adults' use of mental models can be compromised when spatial information is presented verbally rather than visually. PMID:17874955

  19. Radiochronological Age of a Uranium Metal Sample from an Abandoned Facility

    SciTech Connect

    Meyers, L A; Williams, R W; Glover, S E; LaMont, S P; Stalcup, A M; Spitz, H B

    2012-03-16

    A piece of scrap uranium metal bar buried in the dirt floor of an old, abandoned metal rolling mill was analyzed using multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy (MC-ICP-MS). The mill rolled uranium rods in the 1940s and 1950s. Samples of the contaminated dirt in which the bar was buried were also analyzed. The isotopic composition of uranium in the bar and dirt samples were both the same as natural uranium, though a few samples of dirt also contained recycled uranium; likely a result of contamination with other material rolled at the mill. The time elapsed since the uranium metal bar was last purified can be determined by the in-growth of the isotope {sup 230}Th from the decay of {sup 234}U, assuming that only uranium isotopes were present in the bar after purification. The age of the metal bar was determined to be 61 years at the time of this analysis and corresponds to a purification date of July 1950 {+-} 1.5 years.

  20. A Unimodal Model for Double Observer Distance Sampling Surveys

    PubMed Central

    Becker, Earl F.; Christ, Aaron M.

    2015-01-01

    Distance sampling is a widely used method to estimate animal population size. Most distance sampling models utilize a monotonically decreasing detection function such as a half-normal. Recent advances in distance sampling modeling allow for the incorporation of covariates into the distance model, and the elimination of the assumption of perfect detection at some fixed distance (usually the transect line) with the use of double-observer models. The assumption of full observer independence in the double-observer model is problematic, but can be addressed by using the point independence assumption which assumes there is one distance, the apex of the detection function, where the 2 observers are assumed independent. Aerially collected distance sampling data can have a unimodal shape and have been successfully modeled with a gamma detection function. Covariates in gamma detection models cause the apex of detection to shift depending upon covariate levels, making this model incompatible with the point independence assumption when using double-observer data. This paper reports a unimodal detection model based on a two-piece normal distribution that allows covariates, has only one apex, and is consistent with the point independence assumption when double-observer data are utilized. An aerial line-transect survey of black bears in Alaska illustrate how this method can be applied. PMID:26317984

  1. Multilevel Risk Models for Retrospective Age-of-Onset Data: School Children's First Cigarette.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pickles, Andrew; Pickering, Kevin; Taylor, Colin; Sutton, Stephen; Yang, Shuying

    2001-01-01

    Describes a random effects discrete time survival model that addresses problems of measurement error and sample design complexities. Demonstrates the effectiveness of the model in an analysis of retrospective report data on the age of onset of smoking from two cross-sectional school-based studies. (JPB)

  2. An integrated modeling approach to age invariant face recognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alvi, Fahad Bashir; Pears, Russel

    2015-03-01

    This Research study proposes a novel method for face recognition based on Anthropometric features that make use of an integrated approach comprising of a global and personalized models. The system is aimed to at situations where lighting, illumination, and pose variations cause problems in face recognition. A Personalized model covers the individual aging patterns while a Global model captures general aging patterns in the database. We introduced a de-aging factor that de-ages each individual in the database test and training sets. We used the k nearest neighbor approach for building a personalized model and global model. Regression analysis was applied to build the models. During the test phase, we resort to voting on different features. We used FG-Net database for checking the results of our technique and achieved 65 percent Rank 1 identification rate.

  3. A network model of human aging: Limits, errors, and information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farrell, Spencer; Mitnitski, Arnold; Rockwood, Kenneth; Rutenberg, Andrew

    The Frailty Index (FI) quantifies human aging using the fraction of accumulated age-related deficits. The FI correlates strongly with mortality and accumulates non-linearly and stochastically with age. Clinical data shows a nearly universal limit of FI <= 0 . 7 . We computationally model an aging population using a network model of interacting deficits. Deficits damage and repair at rates that depend upon the average damage of connected nodes. The model is parametrized to fit clinical data. We find that attribution errors, especially false negative, allow the model to recover the frailty limit. Mutual information allows us to assess how well the FI can predict mortality. Mutual information provides a non-parametric measure of how the FI predicts mortality. We find that attribution errors have a small effect on the mutual information when many deficits are included in the model. The mutual information of our model and of the clinical data are comparable.

  4. Bayesian Estimation of the DINA Model with Gibbs Sampling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Culpepper, Steven Andrew

    2015-01-01

    A Bayesian model formulation of the deterministic inputs, noisy "and" gate (DINA) model is presented. Gibbs sampling is employed to simulate from the joint posterior distribution of item guessing and slipping parameters, subject attribute parameters, and latent class probabilities. The procedure extends concepts in Béguin and Glas,…

  5. Small Sample Properties of Bayesian Multivariate Autoregressive Time Series Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Price, Larry R.

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the small sample (N = 1, 3, 5, 10, 15) performance of a Bayesian multivariate vector autoregressive (BVAR-SEM) time series model relative to frequentist power and parameter estimation bias. A multivariate autoregressive model was developed based on correlated autoregressive time series vectors of varying…

  6. Sample size calculation for the proportional hazards cure model.

    PubMed

    Wang, Songfeng; Zhang, Jiajia; Lu, Wenbin

    2012-12-20

    In clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints, it is not uncommon to see a significant proportion of patients being cured (or long-term survivors), such as trials for the non-Hodgkins lymphoma disease. The popularly used sample size formula derived under the proportional hazards (PH) model may not be proper to design a survival trial with a cure fraction, because the PH model assumption may be violated. To account for a cure fraction, the PH cure model is widely used in practice, where a PH model is used for survival times of uncured patients and a logistic distribution is used for the probability of patients being cured. In this paper, we develop a sample size formula on the basis of the PH cure model by investigating the asymptotic distributions of the standard weighted log-rank statistics under the null and local alternative hypotheses. The derived sample size formula under the PH cure model is more flexible because it can be used to test the differences in the short-term survival and/or cure fraction. Furthermore, we also investigate as numerical examples the impacts of accrual methods and durations of accrual and follow-up periods on sample size calculation. The results show that ignoring the cure rate in sample size calculation can lead to either underpowered or overpowered studies. We evaluate the performance of the proposed formula by simulation studies and provide an example to illustrate its application with the use of data from a melanoma trial. PMID:22786805

  7. Numerical solution of the Penna model of biological aging with age-modified mutation rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magdoń-Maksymowicz, M. S.; Maksymowicz, A. Z.

    2009-06-01

    In this paper we present results of numerical calculation of the Penna bit-string model of biological aging, modified for the case of a -dependent mutation rate m(a) , where a is the parent’s age. The mutation rate m(a) is the probability per bit of an extra bad mutation introduced in offspring inherited genome. We assume that m(a) increases with age a . As compared with the reference case of the standard Penna model based on a constant mutation rate m , the dynamics of the population growth shows distinct changes in age distribution of the population. Here we concentrate on mortality q(a) , a fraction of items eliminated from the population when we go from age (a) to (a+1) in simulated transition from time (t) to next time (t+1) . The experimentally observed q(a) dependence essentially follows the Gompertz exponential law for a above the minimum reproduction age. Deviation from the Gompertz law is however observed for the very old items, close to the maximal age. This effect may also result from an increase in mutation rate m with age a discussed in this paper. The numerical calculations are based on analytical solution of the Penna model, presented in a series of papers by Coe [J. B. Coe, Y. Mao, and M. E. Cates, Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 288103 (2002)]. Results of the numerical calculations are supported by the data obtained from computer simulation based on the solution by Coe

  8. The Marmoset as a Model of Aging and Age-Related Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Tardif, Suzette D.; Mansfield, Keith G.; Ratnam, Rama; Ross, Corinna N.; Ziegler, Toni E.

    2013-01-01

    The common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus) is poised to become a standard nonhuman primate aging model. With an average lifespan of 5 to 7 years and a maximum lifespan of 16.5 years, marmosets are the shortest-lived anthropoid primates. They display age-related changes in pathologies that mirror those seen in humans, such as cancer, amyloidosis, diabetes, and chronic renal disease. They also display predictable age-related differences in lean mass, calf circumference, circulating albumin, hemoglobin, and hematocrit. Features of spontaneous sensory and neurodegenerative change—for example, reduced neurogenesis, β-amyloid deposition in the cerebral cortex, loss of calbindin D28k binding, and evidence of presbycusis—appear between the ages of 7 and 10 years. Variation among colonies in the age at which neurodegenerative change occurs suggests the interesting possibility that marmosets could be specifically managed to produce earlier versus later occurrence of degenerative conditions associated with differing rates of damage accumulation. In addition to the established value of the marmoset as a model of age-related neurodegenerative change, this primate can serve as a model of the integrated effects of aging and obesity on metabolic dysfunction, as it displays evidence of such dysfunction associated with high body weight as early as 6 to 8 years of age. PMID:21411858

  9. The Healthy Ageing Model: health behaviour change for older adults.

    PubMed

    Potempa, Kathleen M; Butterworth, Susan W; Flaherty-Robb, Marna K; Gaynor, William L

    2010-01-01

    Proposed is a model of primary care for older adults with chronic health conditions that focuses on active engagement in health care. The Healthy Ageing Model is anchored in established theory on motivation and health behaviour change. The model draws on empirical and applied clinical underpinnings in such diverse areas as health promotion and education, treatment of addictions or obesity, management of chronic diseases, goal-setting, and coaching techniques. The conceptual foundation for the Healthy Ageing Model is described first, followed by a brief description of the key characteristics of the model. In conclusion, suggestions are offered for the clinical application and for further developing the model.

  10. A comprehensive approach to age-dependent dosimetric modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Leggett, R.W.; Cristy, M.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1986-01-01

    In the absence of age-specific biokinetic models, current retention models of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) frequently are used as a point of departure for evaluation of exposures to the general population. These models were designed and intended for estimation of long-term integrated doses to the adult worker. Their format and empirical basis preclude incorporation of much valuable physiological information and physiologically reasonable assumptions that could be used in characterizing the age-specific behavior of radioelements in humans. In this paper we discuss a comprehensive approach to age-dependent dosimetric modeling in which consideration is given not only to changes with age in masses and relative geometries of body organs and tissues but also to best available physiological and radiobiological information relating to the age-specific biobehavior of radionuclides. This approach is useful in obtaining more accurate estimates of long-term dose commitments as a function of age at intake, but it may be particularly valuable in establishing more accurate estimates of dose rate as a function of age. Age-specific dose rates are needed for a proper analysis of the potential effects on estimates or risk of elevated dose rates per unit intake in certain stages of life, elevated response per unit dose received during some stages of life, and age-specific non-radiogenic competing risks.

  11. Lithium battery aging model based on Dakin's degradation approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baghdadi, Issam; Briat, Olivier; Delétage, Jean-Yves; Gyan, Philippe; Vinassa, Jean-Michel

    2016-09-01

    This paper proposes and validates a calendar and power cycling aging model for two different lithium battery technologies. The model development is based on previous SIMCAL and SIMSTOCK project data. In these previous projects, the effect of the battery state of charge, temperature and current magnitude on aging was studied on a large panel of different battery chemistries. In this work, data are analyzed using Dakin's degradation approach. In fact, the logarithms of battery capacity fade and the increase in resistance evolves linearly over aging. The slopes identified from straight lines correspond to battery aging rates. Thus, a battery aging rate expression function of aging factors was deduced and found to be governed by Eyring's law. The proposed model simulates the capacity fade and resistance increase as functions of the influencing aging factors. Its expansion using Taylor series was consistent with semi-empirical models based on the square root of time, which are widely studied in the literature. Finally, the influence of the current magnitude and temperature on aging was simulated. Interestingly, the aging rate highly increases with decreasing and increasing temperature for the ranges of -5 °C-25 °C and 25 °C-60 °C, respectively.

  12. Dependency conflict, marital threat, and alcohol consumption in a middle-aged sample.

    PubMed

    Schwarz, J C; Wheeler, D S

    1992-09-01

    The hypothesis that dependency conflict is associated with higher levels of alcohol consumption when dependency needs are threatened or thwarted was tested with a sample of 672 middle-aged, married adults with college-age children. The subjects' current level of alcohol consumption was predicted based on the present level of threat to the marital relationship (assessed by reports from several family members) and on indices of dependency need and inhibition of dependent behavior estimated from sibship size, sibship density, and sibling position. A multiple regression analysis yielded a significant two-way interaction (p less than .05) between marital threat and subject sex, and a significant three-way interaction of dependency need, inhibition of dependent behavior, and marital threat. High marital threat was associated with higher levels of alcohol consumption in men and slightly lower levels of alcohol consumption in women. Additionally, when dependency need was high, alcohol consumption was generally low, except when both inhibition of dependent behavior and marital threat were high. However, when dependency need was low, the highest alcohol consumption score occurred when marital threat was low and inhibition was high.

  13. Sampling artifact in volume weighted velocity measurement. I. Theoretical modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Pengjie; Zheng, Yi; Jing, Yipeng

    2015-02-01

    Cosmology based on large scale peculiar velocity prefers volume weighted velocity statistics. However, measuring the volume weighted velocity statistics from inhomogeneously distributed galaxies (simulation particles/halos) suffers from an inevitable and significant sampling artifact. We study this sampling artifact in the velocity power spectrum measured by the nearest particle velocity assignment method by Zheng et al., [Phys. Rev. D 88, 103510 (2013).]. We derive the analytical expression of leading and higher order terms. We find that the sampling artifact suppresses the z =0 E -mode velocity power spectrum by ˜10 % at k =0.1 h /Mpc , for samples with number density 10-3 (Mpc /h )-3 . This suppression becomes larger for larger k and for sparser samples. We argue that this source of systematic errors in peculiar velocity cosmology, albeit severe, can be self-calibrated in the framework of our theoretical modelling. We also work out the sampling artifact in the density-velocity cross power spectrum measurement. A more robust evaluation of related statistics through simulations will be presented in a companion paper by Zheng et al., [Sampling artifact in volume weighted velocity measurement. II. Detection in simulations and comparison with theoretical modelling, arXiv:1409.6809.]. We also argue that similar sampling artifact exists in other velocity assignment methods and hence must be carefully corrected to avoid systematic bias in peculiar velocity cosmology.

  14. The Gifted Rating Scales-School Form: An Analysis of the Standardization Sample Based on Age, Gender, Race, and Diagnostic Efficiency

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pfeiffer, Steven I.; Jarosewich, Tania

    2007-01-01

    This study analyzes the standardization sample of a new teacher rating scale designed to assist in the identification of gifted students. The Gifted Rating Scales-School Form (GRS-S) is based on a multidimensional model of giftedness. Results indicate no age or race/ethnicity differences on any of the scales and small but significant differences…

  15. 230Th-234U Model-Ages of Some Uranium Standard Reference Materials

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, R W; Gaffney, A M; Kristo, M J; Hutcheon, I D

    2009-05-28

    The 'age' of a sample of uranium is an important aspect of a nuclear forensic investigation and of the attribution of the material to its source. To the extent that the sample obeys the standard rules of radiochronometry, then the production ages of even very recent material can be determined using the {sup 230}Th-{sup 234}U chronometer. These standard rules may be summarized as (a) the daughter/parent ratio at time=zero must be known, and (b) there has been no daughter/parent fractionation since production. For most samples of uranium, the 'ages' determined using this chronometer are semantically 'model-ages' because (a) some assumption of the initial {sup 230}Th content in the sample is required and (b) closed-system behavior is assumed. The uranium standard reference materials originally prepared and distributed by the former US National Bureau of Standards and now distributed by New Brunswick Laboratory as certified reference materials (NBS SRM = NBL CRM) are good candidates for samples where both rules are met. The U isotopic standards have known purification and production dates, and closed-system behavior in the solid form (U{sub 3}O{sub 8}) may be assumed with confidence. We present here {sup 230}Th-{sup 234}U model-ages for several of these standards, determined by isotope dilution mass spectrometry using a multicollector ICP-MS, and compare these ages with their known production history.

  16. Aging well socially through engagement with life: adapting Rowe and Kahn's model of successful aging to Chinese cultural context.

    PubMed

    Ng, Sik Hung; Cheung, Chau-Kiu; Chong, Alice M L; Woo, Jean; Kwan, Alex Y H; Lai, Stephanie

    2011-01-01

    Although aging well socially (engagement with life) is as important as aging well personally (illness avoidance and functioning) (Rowe & Kahn, 1998), it has received less research attention. A caring (CE) and a productive (PE) form of engagement were derived from an analysis of Chinese cultural meanings of engagement, and combined with illness avoidance and functioning to form a 4-factor model. Confirmatory factor analysis based on 2970 Hong Kong Chinese (40 to 74 years) showed a good model fit that was replicated a year later with 2120 of the original sample. Further analysis led to a more parsimonious model where illness avoidance and functioning converged into a single second-order factor whereas CE and PE remained as distinct first-order factors. The results supported the differentiation of Rowe and Kahn's engagement with life component into caring and productive engagements.

  17. Modeling the brain morphology distribution in the general aging population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huizinga, W.; Poot, D. H. J.; Roshchupkin, G.; Bron, E. E.; Ikram, M. A.; Vernooij, M. W.; Rueckert, D.; Niessen, W. J.; Klein, S.

    2016-03-01

    Both normal aging and neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease cause morphological changes of the brain. To better distinguish between normal and abnormal cases, it is necessary to model changes in brain morphology owing to normal aging. To this end, we developed a method for analyzing and visualizing these changes for the entire brain morphology distribution in the general aging population. The method is applied to 1000 subjects from a large population imaging study in the elderly, from which 900 were used to train the model and 100 were used for testing. The results of the 100 test subjects show that the model generalizes to subjects outside the model population. Smooth percentile curves showing the brain morphology changes as a function of age and spatiotemporal atlases derived from the model population are publicly available via an interactive web application at agingbrain.bigr.nl.

  18. Using remotely-sensed multispectral imagery to build age models for alluvial fan surfaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Arcy, Mitch; Mason, Philippa J.; Roda Boluda, Duna C.; Whittaker, Alexander C.; Lewis, James

    2016-04-01

    Accurate exposure age models are essential for much geomorphological field research, and generally depend on laboratory analyses such as radiocarbon, cosmogenic nuclide, or luminescence techniques. These approaches continue to revolutionise geomorphology, however they cannot be deployed remotely or in situ in the field. Therefore other methods are still needed for producing preliminary age models, performing relative dating of surfaces, or selecting sampling sites for the laboratory analyses above. With the widespread availability of detailed multispectral imagery, a promising approach is to use remotely-sensed data to discriminate surfaces with different ages. Here, we use new Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) multispectral imagery to characterise the reflectance of 35 alluvial fan surfaces in the semi-arid Owens Valley, California. Alluvial fans are useful landforms to date, as they are widely used to study the effects of tectonics, climate and sediment transport processes on source-to-sink sedimentation. Our target fan surfaces have all been mapped in detail in the field, and have well-constrained exposure ages ranging from modern to ~ 125 ka measured using a high density of 10Be cosmogenic nuclide samples. Despite all having similar granitic compositions, the spectral properties of these surfaces vary systematically with their exposure ages. Older surfaces demonstrate a predictable shift in reflectance across the visible and short-wave infrared spectrum. Simple calculations, such as the brightness ratios of different wavelengths, generate sensitive power law relationships with exposure age that depend on post-depositional alteration processes affecting these surfaces. We investigate what these processes might be in this dryland location, and evaluate the potential for using remotely-sensed multispectral imagery for developing surface age models. The ability to remotely sense relative exposure ages has useful implications for preliminary mapping, selecting

  19. Multiscale Concrete Modeling of Aging Degradation

    SciTech Connect

    Hammi, Yousseff; Gullett, Philipp; Horstemeyer, Mark F.

    2015-07-31

    In this work a numerical finite element framework is implemented to enable the integration of coupled multiscale and multiphysics transport processes. A User Element subroutine (UEL) in Abaqus is used to simultaneously solve stress equilibrium, heat conduction, and multiple diffusion equations for 2D and 3D linear and quadratic elements. Transport processes in concrete structures and their degradation mechanisms are presented along with the discretization of the governing equations. The multiphysics modeling framework is theoretically extended to the linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) by introducing the eXtended Finite Element Method (XFEM) and based on the XFEM user element implementation of Giner et al. [2009]. A damage model that takes into account the damage contribution from the different degradation mechanisms is theoretically developed. The total contribution of damage is forwarded to a Multi-Stage Fatigue (MSF) model to enable the assessment of the fatigue life and the deterioration of reinforced concrete structures in a nuclear power plant. Finally, two examples are presented to illustrate the developed multiphysics user element implementation and the XFEM implementation of Giner et al. [2009].

  20. Selection Experiments in the Penna Model for Biological Aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medeiros, G.; Idiart, M. A.; de Almeida, R. M. C.

    We consider the Penna model for biological aging to investigate correlations between early fertility and late life survival rates in populations at equilibrium. We consider inherited initial reproduction ages together with a reproduction cost translated in a probability that mother and offspring die at birth, depending on the mother age. For convenient sets of parameters, the equilibrated populations present genetic variability in what regards both genetically programmed death age and initial reproduction age. In the asexual Penna model, a negative correlation between early life fertility and late life survival rates naturally emerges in the stationary solutions. In the sexual Penna model, selection experiments are performed where individuals are sorted by initial reproduction age from the equilibrated populations and the separated populations are evolved independently. After a transient, a negative correlation between early fertility and late age survival rates also emerges in the sense that populations that start reproducing earlier present smaller average genetically programmed death age. These effects appear due to the age structure of populations in the steady state solution of the evolution equations. We claim that the same demographic effects may be playing an important role in selection experiments in the laboratory.

  1. Impact of multicollinearity on small sample hydrologic regression models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kroll, Charles N.; Song, Peter

    2013-06-01

    Often hydrologic regression models are developed with ordinary least squares (OLS) procedures. The use of OLS with highly correlated explanatory variables produces multicollinearity, which creates highly sensitive parameter estimators with inflated variances and improper model selection. It is not clear how to best address multicollinearity in hydrologic regression models. Here a Monte Carlo simulation is developed to compare four techniques to address multicollinearity: OLS, OLS with variance inflation factor screening (VIF), principal component regression (PCR), and partial least squares regression (PLS). The performance of these four techniques was observed for varying sample sizes, correlation coefficients between the explanatory variables, and model error variances consistent with hydrologic regional regression models. The negative effects of multicollinearity are magnified at smaller sample sizes, higher correlations between the variables, and larger model error variances (smaller R2). The Monte Carlo simulation indicates that if the true model is known, multicollinearity is present, and the estimation and statistical testing of regression parameters are of interest, then PCR or PLS should be employed. If the model is unknown, or if the interest is solely on model predictions, is it recommended that OLS be employed since using more complicated techniques did not produce any improvement in model performance. A leave-one-out cross-validation case study was also performed using low-streamflow data sets from the eastern United States. Results indicate that OLS with stepwise selection generally produces models across study regions with varying levels of multicollinearity that are as good as biased regression techniques such as PCR and PLS.

  2. 14C-age tracers in global ocean circulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koeve, W.; Wagner, H.; Kähler, P.; Oschlies, A.

    2015-07-01

    The natural abundance of 14C in total CO2 dissolved in seawater (DIC) is a property applied to evaluate the water age structure and circulation in the ocean and in ocean models. In this study we use three different representations of the global ocean circulation augmented with a suite of idealised tracers to study the potential and limitations of using natural 14C to determine water age, which is the time elapsed since a body of water has been in contact with the atmosphere. We find that, globally, bulk 14C-age is dominated by two equally important components, one associated with ageing, i.e. the time component of circulation, and one associated with a "preformed 14C-age". The latter quantity exists because of the slow and incomplete atmosphere-ocean equilibration of 14C particularly in high latitudes where many water masses form. In the ocean's interior, preformed 14C-age behaves like a passive tracer. The relative contribution of the preformed component to bulk 14C-age varies regionally within a given model, but also between models. Regional variability in the Atlantic Ocean is associated with the mixing of waters with very different end members of preformed 14C-age. Here, variations in the preformed component over space and time mask the circulation component to an extent that its patterns are not detectable from bulk 14C-age. Between models, the variability of preformed 14C-age can also be considerable (factor of 2), related to the combination of physical model parameters, which influence circulation dynamics or gas exchange. The preformed component was found to be very sensitive to gas exchange and moderately sensitive to ice cover. In our model evaluation, the choice of the gas-exchange constant from within the currently accepted range of uncertainty had such a strong influence on preformed and bulk 14C-age that if model evaluation would be based on bulk 14C-age, it could easily impair the evaluation and tuning of a model's circulation on global and regional

  3. Argon-40/Argon-39 Age Spectra of Apollo 17 Highlands Breccia Samples by Laser Step Heating and the Age of the Serenitatis Basin

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dalrymple, G. Brent; Ryder, Graham

    1996-01-01

    We have obtained high-resolution (21-63 steps) Ar-40/Ar-39 age spectra using a continuous laser system on 19 submilligram samples of melt rocks and clasts from Apollo 17 samples collected from the pre-Imbrian highlands in the easternmost part of the Serenitatis basin. The samples include poikilitic melt rocks inferred to have been formed in the Serenitatis basin-forming impact, aphanitic melt rock whose compositions vary and whose provenance is uncertain, and granulite, gabbro, and melt clasts. Three of the poikilitic melts have similar age spectrum plateau ages (72395,96, 3893 +/- 16 Ma (2sigma); 72535,7, 3887 +/- 16 Ma; 76315,150, 3900 +/- 16 Ma) with a weighted mean age of 3893 +/- 9 Ma, which we interpret as the best age for the Serenitatis basin- forming impact. Published Ar-40/Ar-39 age spectrum ages of Apollo 17 poikilitic melts are consistent with our new age but are much less precise. Two poikilitic melts did not give plateaus and the maxima in their age spectra indicate ages of greater than or equal to 3869 Ma (72558,7) and greater than or equal to 3743 Ma (77135,178). Plateau ages of two poikilitic melts and two gabbro clasts from 73155 range from 3854 +/- 16 Ma to 3937 +/- 16 Ma and have probably been affected by the ubiquitous (older?) clasts and by post- formation heating (impact) events. Plateau ages from two of the aphanitic melt 'blobs' and two granulites in sample 72255 fall in the narrow range of 3850 q 16 Ma to 3869 q 16 Ma with a weighted mean of 3862 +/- 8 Ma. Two of the aphanitic melt blobs from 72255 have ages of 3883 +/- 16 Ma and greater than or equal to 3894 Ma, whereas a poikilitic melt clast (of different composition from the 'Serenitatis' melts) has an age of 3835 +/- 16 Ma, which is the upper limit for the accretion of 72255. These data suggest that either the aphanitic melts vary in age, as is also suggested by their varying chemical compositions, or they formed in the 72255 accretionary event about 3.84-3.85 Ga and older relict

  4. An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner,; Richard B Chandler,; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett,

    2015-01-01

    Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

  5. Age-at-death estimation by pulp/tooth area ratio in canines: study of a 20th-century Mexican sample of prisoners to test Cameriere's method.

    PubMed

    De Luca, Stefano; Bautista, Josefina; Alemán, Inmaculada; Cameriere, Roberto

    2011-09-01

    Accurate age estimation has always been a problem for forensic scientists, and apposition of secondary dentine is often used as an indicator of age. Cameriere et al. studied the pulp/tooth area ratio by peri-apical X-ray images of the canines, to observe the apposition of secondary dentine. The present study examines the application of this technique in a Mexican identified sample coming from the Department of Physical Anthropology of the INAH, at Mexico City. The main aim of this work is to test the reliability of this method in a skeletal sample of a specific population, different from the samples used for its development. The obtained regression model explained 96.2% of total variance (R(2) = 0.962) with a standard error of estimate of 1.909 and a standard deviation of 1.947. These results demonstrate great reliability and that the age/secondary dentine relationship is not variable in this specific population.

  6. 14C-age tracers in global ocean circulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koeve, W.; Wagner, H.; Kähler, P.; Oschlies, A.

    2014-10-01

    The natural abundance of 14C in total CO2 dissolved in seawater is a property applied to evaluate the water age structure and circulation in the ocean and in ocean models. In this study we use three different representations of the global ocean circulation augmented with a suite of idealised tracers to study the potential and limitations of using natural 14C to determine water age, the time elapsed since a body of water had contact with the atmosphere. We find that, globally, bulk 14C-age is dominated by two equally important components, one associated with aging, i.e. the time component of circulation and one associated with a "preformed 14C-age". This latter quantity exists because of the slow and incomplete atmosphere/ocean equilibration of 14C in particular in high latitudes where many water masses form. The relative contribution of the preformed component to bulk 14C-age varies regionally within a given model, but also between models. Regional variability, e.g. in the Atlantic Ocean is associated with the mixing of waters with very different end members of preformed 14C-age. In the Atlantic, variations in the preformed component over space and time mask the circulation component to an extent that its patterns are not detectable from bulk 14C-age alone. Between models the variability of age can also be considerable (factor of 2), related to the combinations of physical model parameters, which influence circulation dynamics, and gas exchange in the models. The preformed component was found to be very sensitive to gas exchange and moderately sensitive to ice cover. In our model evaluation exercise, the choice of the gas exchange constant from within the current range of uncertainty had such a strong influence on preformed and bulk 14C-age that if model evaluation would be based on bulk 14C-age it could easily impair the evaluation and tuning of a models circulation on global and regional scales. Based on the results of this study, we propose that considering

  7. The role of forest age in earth system models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poulter, B.; Bellassen, V.; Lin, X.; Luyssaert, S.; Nachin, B.; Pederson, N.; Shchepashchenko, D.; Shvidenko, A.; Ciais, P.

    2012-12-01

    The age of a forest has a principal role in determining the magnitude of carbon stocks and fluxes. As forests grow older, carbon tends to accumulate in above and belowground biomass causing changes in forest canopy complexity, nutrient pools, and the balance between carbon uptake and release. While age is a standard variable for forestry models, the present generation of earth system models neglects a representation of forest age for several reasons. These include the challenge in representing sub-grid cell ecosystem heterogeneity, a poor understanding of how ecosystem processes evolve with age, and because of a lack of forest age data with which to initialize models. Here we present a globally gridded forest age distribution dataset that is derived from National Forest Inventory data and from satellite-derived disturbance frequencies. This gridded dataset is developed at 0.5° spatial resolution at the plant functional types classification level, one that is commonly used in dynamic global vegetation models. We find large national-scale differences in forest age distributions, for example, with a peak age-area for young forests in China, and more mature forests across Canada and in Russia. Comparing simulated forest carbon stocks and fluxes from three DGVM models (LPJ, ORCHIDEE, and ORCHIDEE-Forest Management) with a global forest database, we illustrate the importance of accounting for structural development as forests develop. With over half the world's forests modified by human activities, or influenced by natural disturbance, spatial patterns of forest age distributions are a necessary feature of forward models for closing the global carbon budget within a consistent modeling framework.

  8. Travelling Wave Solutions in Multigroup Age-Structured Epidemic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ducrot, Arnaut; Magal, Pierre; Ruan, Shigui

    2010-01-01

    Age-structured epidemic models have been used to describe either the age of individuals or the age of infection of certain diseases and to determine how these characteristics affect the outcomes and consequences of epidemiological processes. Most results on age-structured epidemic models focus on the existence, uniqueness, and convergence to disease equilibria of solutions. In this paper we investigate the existence of travelling wave solutions in a deterministic age-structured model describing the circulation of a disease within a population of multigroups. Individuals of each group are able to move with a random walk which is modelled by the classical Fickian diffusion and are classified into two subclasses, susceptible and infective. A susceptible individual in a given group can be crisscross infected by direct contact with infective individuals of possibly any group. This process of transmission can depend upon the age of the disease of infected individuals. The goal of this paper is to provide sufficient conditions that ensure the existence of travelling wave solutions for the age-structured epidemic model. The case of two population groups is numerically investigated which applies to the crisscross transmission of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and some sexual transmission diseases.

  9. Mouse models of age-related mitochondrial neurosensory hearing loss.

    PubMed

    Han, Chul; Someya, Shinichi

    2013-07-01

    Hearing loss is the most common sensory disorder in the elderly population. Overall, 10% of the population has a hearing loss in the US, and this age-related hearing disorder is projected to afflict more than 28 million Americans by 2030. Age-related hearing loss is associated with loss of sensory hair cells (sensory hearing loss) and/or spiral ganglion neurons (neuronal hearing loss) in the cochlea of the inner ear. Many lines of evidence indicate that oxidative stress and associated mitochondrial dysfunction play a central role in age-related neurodegenerative diseases and are a cause of age-related neurosensory hearing loss. Yet, the molecular mechanisms of how oxidative stress and/or mitochondrial dysfunction lead to hearing loss during aging remain unclear, and currently there is no treatment for this age-dependent disorder. Several mouse models of aging and age-related diseases have been linked to age-related mitochondrial neurosensory hearing loss. Evaluation of these animal models has offered basic knowledge of the mechanism underlying hearing loss associated with oxidative stress, mitochondrial dysfunction, and aging. Here we review the evidence that specific mutations in the mitochondrial DNA or nuclear DNA that affect mitochondrial function result in increased oxidative damage and associated loss of sensory hair cells and/or spiral ganglion neurons in the cochlea during aging, thereby causing hearing loss in these mouse models. Future studies comparing these models will provide further insight into fundamental knowledge about the disordered process of hearing and treatments to improve the lives of individuals with communication disorders. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled 'Mitochondrial function and dysfunction in neurodegeneration'.

  10. On species sampling sequences induced by residual allocation models

    PubMed Central

    Rodríguez, Abel; Quintana, Fernando A.

    2014-01-01

    We discuss fully Bayesian inference in a class of species sampling models that are induced by residual allocation (sometimes called stick-breaking) priors on almost surely discrete random measures. This class provides a generalization of the well-known Ewens sampling formula that allows for additional flexibility while retaining computational tractability. In particular, the procedure is used to derive the exchangeable predictive probability functions associated with the generalized Dirichlet process of Hjort (2000) and the probit stick-breaking prior of Chung and Dunson (2009) and Rodriguez and Dunson (2011). The procedure is illustrated with applications to genetics and nonparametric mixture modeling. PMID:25477705

  11. On species sampling sequences induced by residual allocation models.

    PubMed

    Rodríguez, Abel; Quintana, Fernando A

    2015-02-01

    We discuss fully Bayesian inference in a class of species sampling models that are induced by residual allocation (sometimes called stick-breaking) priors on almost surely discrete random measures. This class provides a generalization of the well-known Ewens sampling formula that allows for additional flexibility while retaining computational tractability. In particular, the procedure is used to derive the exchangeable predictive probability functions associated with the generalized Dirichlet process of Hjort (2000) and the probit stick-breaking prior of Chung and Dunson (2009) and Rodriguez and Dunson (2011). The procedure is illustrated with applications to genetics and nonparametric mixture modeling. PMID:25477705

  12. Aging mechanism in model Pickering emulsion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fouilloux, Sarah; Malloggi, Florent; Daillant, Jean; Thill, Antoine

    We study the stability of a model Pickering emulsion system. A special counter-flow microfluidics set-up was used to prepare monodisperse Pickering emulsions, with oil droplets in water. The wettability of the monodisperse silica nanoparticles (NPs) could be tuned by surface grafting and the surface coverage of the droplets was controlled using the microfluidics setup. A surface coverage as low as 23$\\%$ is enough to stabilize the emulsions and we evidence a new regime of Pickering emulsion stability where the surface coverage of emulsion droplets of constant size increases in time, in coexistence with a large amount of dispersed phase. Our results demonstrate that the previously observed limited coalescence regime where surface coverage tends to control the average size of the final droplets must be put in a broader perspective.

  13. [Tobacco smoking in a sample of middle-size city inhabitants aged 35-55].

    PubMed

    Maniecka-Bryła, Irena; Maciak, Aleksandra; Kowalska, Alina; Bryła, Marek

    2008-01-01

    Tobacco smoking constitutes a common risk factor for the majority of civilization diseases, such as cardiovascular system diseases, malignant neoplasms and digestion and respiratory system disorders as well. Tobacco-related disorders relate to exacerbation of chronic diseases, for example diabetes and multiple sclerosis. Poland is one of those countries, where the prevalence of smoking is especially widespread. In Poland 42% of men and 25% of women smoke cigarettes and the amount of addicted people amounts to approximately 10 million. The latest data from the year 2003 show that the amount of cigarettes smoked by a particular citizen in Poland has risen fourfold since the beginning of 21st century. This paper presents an analysis of prevalence of tobacco smoking among inhabitants of a middle-size city in the Lodz province aged 35-55 years. The study sample comprised 124 people, including 75 females and 49 males. The tool of the research was a questionnaire survey containing questions concerning cigarette smoking. The study found out that 39.5% of respondents (41.3% of females and 36.7% of males) smoked cigarettes. The percentage of former smokers amounted to 15.3% and the percentage of non-smokers was higher than regular smokers and amounted to 44.8%. The study results showed that the majority of smokers were in the age interval of 45 to 49. Cigarette smoking influenced on smokers' health. The blood pressure and lipid balance was higher among smokers than among people who did not smoke cigarettes. The results of the conducted study confirm that there is a strong need of implementation of programmes towards limiting tobacco smoking, which may contribute to lowering the risk of tobacco-related diseases. PMID:19189562

  14. Empathic responsivity at 3 years of age in a sample of cocaine-exposed children.

    PubMed

    Schuetze, Pamela; Eiden, Rina D; Molnar, Danielle S; Colder, Craig D

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the association between prenatal exposure to cocaine and behavioral and physiological responsivity. Participants were 216 mother-infant dyads (116 cocaine exposed-CE, 100 nonexposed-NCE) recruited at birth. Measures of heart rate (HR) and respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) were obtained during baseline and during a task designed to elicit empathy (exposure to infant crying). When the effects of prenatal cocaine use were examined in the context of polydrug use, results of model testing indicated that lower gestational age, prenatal exposure to cocaine and postnatal exposure to alcohol were each associated with a reduced suppression of RSA during the empathy task. These findings provide additional support for an association between prenatal cocaine exposure and dysregulation during early childhood during affect-eliciting environmental challenges. PMID:24444666

  15. Exact solution of an evolutionary model without aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Onody, Roberto N.; de Medeiros, Nazareno G. F.

    1999-09-01

    We introduce an age-structured asexual population model containing all the relevant features of evolutionary aging theories. Beneficial as well as deleterious mutations, heredity, and arbitrary fecundity are present and managed by natural selection. An exact solution without aging is found. We show that fertility is associated with generalized forms of the Fibonacci sequence, while mutations and natural selection are merged into an integral equation which is solved by Fourier series. Average survival probabilities and Malthusian growth exponents are calculated and indicate that the system may exhibit mutational meltdown. The relevance of the model in the context of fissile reproduction groups like many protozoa and coelenterates is discussed.

  16. Modeling 3D faces from samplings via compressive sensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Qi; Tang, Yanlong; Hu, Ping

    2013-07-01

    3D data is easier to acquire for family entertainment purpose today because of the mass-production, cheapness and portability of domestic RGBD sensors, e.g., Microsoft Kinect. However, the accuracy of facial modeling is affected by the roughness and instability of the raw input data from such sensors. To overcome this problem, we introduce compressive sensing (CS) method to build a novel 3D super-resolution scheme to reconstruct high-resolution facial models from rough samples captured by Kinect. Unlike the simple frame fusion super-resolution method, this approach aims to acquire compressed samples for storage before a high-resolution image is produced. In this scheme, depth frames are firstly captured and then each of them is measured into compressed samples using sparse coding. Next, the samples are fused to produce an optimal one and finally a high-resolution image is recovered from the fused sample. This framework is able to recover 3D facial model of a given user from compressed simples and this can reducing storage space as well as measurement cost in future devices e.g., single-pixel depth cameras. Hence, this work can potentially be applied into future applications, such as access control system using face recognition, and smart phones with depth cameras, which need high resolution and little measure time.

  17. Age estimation in children by measurement of open apices in tooth roots: Study of a Mexican sample.

    PubMed

    De Luca, Stefano; De Giorgio, Stefania; Butti, Andrea Carlo; Biagi, Roberto; Cingolani, Mariano; Cameriere, Roberto

    2012-09-10

    The aim of this cross-sectional study was to test the accuracy of Cameriere's European formula for age assessment in a large sample of Mexican children. The accuracy of dental age estimation was defined as how closely real age, measured as the difference between chronological age (CA) and dental age (DA), could be predicted. Digitalized orthopantomographs of 502 Mexican children (254 girls and 248 boys), aged between 5 and 15 years, were analyzed. The seven left permanent mandibular teeth were evaluated using Cameriere's method. Intra- and inter-observer variability for this technique was tested on a small random sample. Dental age was estimated for each individual and compared with known chronological age. Accuracy was measured as the difference between known chronological age and dental age and tested for significance with the mean prediction error (ME). The standard deviation and 95% confidence interval of the mean difference were also calculated. ME was 0.63 years for girls and 0.52 years for boys. ME was found to be slightly overestimated by 0.10 years for girls, but was correctly estimated for boys with an accuracy of 0.00. In conclusion, this method is very useful and may be recommended for practical application both in clinical dentistry and forensic procedures on the Mexican population.

  18. The Development of Small Primate Models for Aging Research

    PubMed Central

    Fischer, Kathleen E.; Austad, Steven N.

    2015-01-01

    Nonhuman primate (NHP) aging research has traditionally relied mainly on the rhesus macaque. But the long lifespan, low reproductive rate, and relatively large body size of macaques and related Old World monkeys make them less than ideal models for aging research. Manifold advantages would attend the use of smaller, more rapidly developing, shorter-lived NHP species in aging studies, not the least of which are lower cost and the ability to do shorter research projects. Arbitrarily defining “small” primates as those weighing less than 500 g, we assess small, relatively short-lived species among the prosimians and callitrichids for suitability as models for human aging research. Using the criteria of availability, knowledge about (and ease of) maintenance, the possibility of genetic manipulation (a hallmark of 21st century biology), and similarities to humans in the physiology of age-related changes, we suggest three species—two prosimians (Microcebus murinus and Galago senegalensis) and one New World monkey (Callithrix jacchus)—that deserve scrutiny for development as major NHP models for aging studies. We discuss one other New World monkey group, Cebus spp., that might also be an effective NHP model of aging as these species are longer-lived for their body size than any primate except humans. PMID:21411860

  19. Modeling Age-Friendly Environment, Active Aging, and Social Connectedness in an Emerging Asian Economy.

    PubMed

    Lai, Ming-Ming; Lein, Shi-Ying; Lau, Siok-Hwa; Lai, Ming-Ling

    2016-01-01

    This paper empirically tested eight key features of WHO guidelines to age-friendly community by surveying 211 informal caregivers and 402 self-care adults (aged 45 to 85 and above) in Malaysia. We examined the associations of these eight features with active aging and social connectedness through exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. A structural model with satisfactory goodness-of-fit indices (CMIN/df = 1.11, RMSEA = 0.02, NFI = 0.97, TLI = 1.00, CFI = 1.00, and GFI = 0.96) indicates that transportation and housing, community support and health services, and outdoor spaces and buildings are statistically significant in creating an age-friendly environment. We found a statistically significant positive relationship between an age-friendly environment and active aging. This relationship is mediated by social connectedness. The results indicate that built environments such as accessible public transportations and housing, affordable and accessible healthcare services, and elderly friendly outdoor spaces and buildings have to be put into place before social environment in building an age-friendly environment. Otherwise, the structural barriers would hinder social interactions for the aged. The removal of the environmental barriers and improved public transportation services provide short-term solutions to meet the varied and growing needs of the older population.

  20. Modeling Age-Friendly Environment, Active Aging, and Social Connectedness in an Emerging Asian Economy

    PubMed Central

    Lai, Ming-Ming; Lein, Shi-Ying; Lau, Siok-Hwa; Lai, Ming-Ling

    2016-01-01

    This paper empirically tested eight key features of WHO guidelines to age-friendly community by surveying 211 informal caregivers and 402 self-care adults (aged 45 to 85 and above) in Malaysia. We examined the associations of these eight features with active aging and social connectedness through exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. A structural model with satisfactory goodness-of-fit indices (CMIN/df = 1.11, RMSEA = 0.02, NFI = 0.97, TLI = 1.00, CFI = 1.00, and GFI = 0.96) indicates that transportation and housing, community support and health services, and outdoor spaces and buildings are statistically significant in creating an age-friendly environment. We found a statistically significant positive relationship between an age-friendly environment and active aging. This relationship is mediated by social connectedness. The results indicate that built environments such as accessible public transportations and housing, affordable and accessible healthcare services, and elderly friendly outdoor spaces and buildings have to be put into place before social environment in building an age-friendly environment. Otherwise, the structural barriers would hinder social interactions for the aged. The removal of the environmental barriers and improved public transportation services provide short-term solutions to meet the varied and growing needs of the older population. PMID:27293889

  1. Modeling Background Attenuation by Sample Matrix in Gamma Spectrometric Analyses

    SciTech Connect

    Bastos, Rodrigo O.; Appoloni, Carlos R.

    2008-08-07

    In laboratory gamma spectrometric analyses, the procedures for estimating background usually overestimate it. If an empty container similar to that used to hold samples is measured, it does not consider the background attenuation by sample matrix. If a 'blank' sample is measured, the hypothesis that this sample will be free of radionuclides is generally not true. The activity of this 'blank' sample is frequently sufficient to mask or to overwhelm the effect of attenuation so that the background remains overestimated. In order to overcome this problem, a model was developed to obtain the attenuated background from the spectrum acquired with the empty container. Beyond reasonable hypotheses, the model presumes the knowledge of the linear attenuation coefficient of the samples and its dependence on photon energy and samples densities. An evaluation of the effects of this model on the Lowest Limit of Detection (LLD) is presented for geological samples placed in cylindrical containers that completely cover the top of an HPGe detector that has a 66% relative efficiency. The results are presented for energies in the range of 63 to 2614keV, for sample densities varying from 1.5 to 2.5 g{center_dot}cm{sup -3}, and for the height of the material on the detector of 2 cm and 5 cm. For a sample density of 2.0 g{center_dot}cm{sup -3} and with a 2cm height, the method allowed for a lowering of 3.4% of the LLD for the energy of 1460keV, from {sup 40}K, 3.9% for the energy of 911keV from {sup 228}Ac, 4.5% for the energy of 609keV from {sup 214}Bi, and8.3% for the energy of 92keV from {sup 234}Th. For a sample density of 1.75 g{center_dot}cm{sup -3} and a 5cm height, the method indicates a lowering of 6.5%, 7.4%, 8.3% and 12.9% of the LLD for the same respective energies.

  2. USING A COMMERCIAL TELEPHONE DIRECTORY TO IDENTIFY A POPULATION-BASED SAMPLE OF WOMEN OF REPRODUCTIVE AGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Using a commercial telephone directory to identify a population-based sample of women of reproductive age
    *DT Lobdell, GM Buck, JM Weiner, P Mendola (United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711)

    In the United States, sampling women o...

  3. The heuristic value of redundancy models of aging.

    PubMed

    Boonekamp, Jelle J; Briga, Michael; Verhulst, Simon

    2015-11-01

    Molecular studies of aging aim to unravel the cause(s) of aging bottom-up, but linking these mechanisms to organismal level processes remains a challenge. We propose that complementary top-down data-directed modelling of organismal level empirical findings may contribute to developing these links. To this end, we explore the heuristic value of redundancy models of aging to develop a deeper insight into the mechanisms causing variation in senescence and lifespan. We start by showing (i) how different redundancy model parameters affect projected aging and mortality, and (ii) how variation in redundancy model parameters relates to variation in parameters of the Gompertz equation. Lifestyle changes or medical interventions during life can modify mortality rate, and we investigate (iii) how interventions that change specific redundancy parameters within the model affect subsequent mortality and actuarial senescence. Lastly, as an example of data-directed modelling and the insights that can be gained from this, (iv) we fit a redundancy model to mortality patterns observed by Mair et al. (2003; Science 301: 1731-1733) in Drosophila that were subjected to dietary restriction and temperature manipulations. Mair et al. found that dietary restriction instantaneously reduced mortality rate without affecting aging, while temperature manipulations had more transient effects on mortality rate and did affect aging. We show that after adjusting model parameters the redundancy model describes both effects well, and a comparison of the parameter values yields a deeper insight in the mechanisms causing these contrasting effects. We see replacement of the redundancy model parameters by more detailed sub-models of these parameters as a next step in linking demographic patterns to underlying molecular mechanisms.

  4. Automated biowaste sampling system urine subsystem operating model, part 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fogal, G. L.; Mangialardi, J. K.; Rosen, F.

    1973-01-01

    The urine subsystem automatically provides for the collection, volume sensing, and sampling of urine from six subjects during space flight. Verification of the subsystem design was a primary objective of the current effort which was accomplished thru the detail design, fabrication, and verification testing of an operating model of the subsystem.

  5. Language Arts Curriculum Framework: Sample Curriculum Model, Grade 4.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arkansas State Dept. of Education, Little Rock.

    Based on the 1998 Arkansas State Language Arts Framework, this sample curriculum model for grade four language arts is divided into sections focusing on writing; listening, speaking, and viewing; and reading. Each section lists standards; benchmarks; assessments; and strategies/activities. The reading section itself is divided into print…

  6. Language Arts Curriculum Framework: Sample Curriculum Model, Grade 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arkansas State Dept. of Education, Little Rock.

    Based on the 1998 Arkansas State Language Arts Framework, this sample curriculum model for grade three language arts is divided into sections focusing on writing; listening, speaking, and viewing; and reading. Each section lists standards; benchmarks; assessments; and strategies/activities. The reading section itself is divided into print…

  7. A Simple Model for Solidification of Undercooled Metallic Samples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saleh, Abdala M.; Clemente, Roberto A.

    2004-06-01

    A simple model for reproducing temperature recalescence behaviour in spherical undercooled liquid metallic samples, undergoing crystallization transformations, is presented. The model is applied to constant heat extraction rate, uniform but time dependent temperature distribution inside the sample (even after the start of crystallization), a classical temperature dependent rate of nucleation (including contributions from different specific heats for different phases and also a catalytic factor to model the possibility of heterogeneous distributed impurities) and the solidified grain interface velocity is taken proportional to the temperature undercooling. Different assumptions are considered for the sample transformed fraction as function of the extended volume of nuclei, like the classical Kolmogoroff, Johnson-Mehl, Avrami one (corresponding to random distribution of nuclei), the Austin-Rickett one (corresponding to some kind of clusterized distribution) and also an empirical one corresponding to some ordering in the distribution of nuclei. As an example of application, a published experimental temperature curve for a zirconium sample in the electromagnetic containerless facility TEMPUS, during the 2nd International Microgravity Laboratory Mission in 1994, is modeled. Some thermo-physical parameters of interest for Zr are discussed.

  8. A three stage sampling model for remote sensing applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eisgruber, L. M.

    1972-01-01

    A conceptual model and an empirical application of the relationship between the manner of selecting observations and its effect on the precision of estimates from remote sensing are reported. This three stage sampling scheme considers flightlines, segments within flightlines, and units within these segments. The error of estimate is dependent on the number of observations in each of the stages.

  9. Attitudes Towards Seeking Psychological Help among a Sample of Turkish University Students: The Roles of Rumination and Internal Working Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Turan, Numan; Erdur-Baker, Özgür

    2014-01-01

    The current study investigates how attitudes towards seeking psychological help relate to internal working models of attachment (self-model and other-model) and ruminative tendencies. The study includes 589 Turkish university students (278 females, 308 males and 3 unknown) by implementing a convenient sampling procedure. The average age of the…

  10. Invertebrates as model organisms for research on aging biology

    PubMed Central

    Murthy, Mahadev; Ram, Jeffrey L.

    2015-01-01

    Invertebrate model systems, such as nematodes and fruit flies, have provided valuable information about the genetics and cellular biology involved in aging. However, limitations of these simple, genetically tractable organisms suggest the need for other model systems, some of them invertebrate, to facilitate further advances in the understanding of mechanisms of aging and longevity in mammals, including humans. This paper introduces 10 review articles about the use of invertebrate model systems for the study of aging by authors who participated in an ‘NIA-NIH symposium on aging in invertebrate model systems’ at the 2013 International Congress for Invertebrate Reproduction and Development. In contrast to the highly derived characteristics of nematodes and fruit flies as members of the superphylum Ecdysozoa, cnidarians, such as Hydra, are more ‘basal’ organisms that have a greater number of genetic orthologs in common with humans. Moreover, some other new model systems, such as the urochordate Botryllus schlosseri, the tunicate Ciona, and the sea urchins (Echinodermata) are members of the Deuterostomia, the same superphylum that includes all vertebrates, and thus have mechanisms that are likely to be more closely related to those occurring in humans. Additional characteristics of these new model systems, such as the recent development of new molecular and genetic tools and a more similar pattern to humans of regeneration and stem cell function suggest that these new model systems may have unique advantages for the study of mechanisms of aging and longevity. PMID:26241448

  11. Language, reading, and math learning profiles in an epidemiological sample of school age children.

    PubMed

    Archibald, Lisa M D; Oram Cardy, Janis; Joanisse, Marc F; Ansari, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    Dyscalculia, dyslexia, and specific language impairment (SLI) are relatively specific developmental learning disabilities in math, reading, and oral language, respectively, that occur in the context of average intellectual capacity and adequate environmental opportunities. Past research has been dominated by studies focused on single impairments despite the widespread recognition that overlapping and comorbid deficits are common. The present study took an epidemiological approach to study the learning profiles of a large school age sample in language, reading, and math. Both general learning profiles reflecting good or poor performance across measures and specific learning profiles involving either weak language, weak reading, weak math, or weak math and reading were observed. These latter four profiles characterized 70% of children with some evidence of a learning disability. Low scores in phonological short-term memory characterized clusters with a language-based weakness whereas low or variable phonological awareness was associated with the reading (but not language-based) weaknesses. The low math only group did not show these phonological deficits. These findings may suggest different etiologies for language-based deficits in language, reading, and math, reading-related impairments in reading and math, and isolated math disabilities. PMID:24155959

  12. Age and equity in liver transplantation: An organ allocation model.

    PubMed

    Cucchetti, Alessandro; Ross, Lainie Friedman; Thistlethwaite, J Richard; Vitale, Alessandro; Ravaioli, Matteo; Cescon, Matteo; Ercolani, Giorgio; Burra, Patrizia; Cillo, Umberto; Pinna, Antonio Daniele

    2015-10-01

    A moral liver allocation policy must be fair. We considered a 2-step, 2-principle allocation system called "age mapping." Its first principle, equal opportunity, ensures that candidates of all ages have an equal chance of getting an organ. Its second principle, prudential lifespan equity, allocates younger donor grafts to younger candidates and older donors to older candidates in order to increase the likelihood that all recipients achieve a "full lifespan." Data from 2476 candidates and 1371 consecutive adult liver transplantations (from 1999 to 2012) were used to determine whether age mapping can reduce the gap in years of life lost (YLL) between younger and older recipients. A parametric Weibull prognostic model was developed to estimate total life expectancy after transplantation using survival of the general population matched by sex and age as a reference. Life expectancy from birth was calculated by adding age at transplant and total life expectancy after transplantation. In multivariate analysis, recipient age, hepatitis C virus status, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score at transplant of >30, and donor age were significantly related to prognosis after surgery (P < 0.05). The mean (and standard deviation) number of years of life from birth, calculated from the current allocation model, for various age groups were: recipients 18-47 years (n = 340) = 65.2 (3.3); 48-55 years (n = 387) = 72.7 (2.1); 56-61 years (n = 372) = 74.7 (1.7) and for recipients >61 years (n = 272) = 77.4 (1.4). The total number of YLL equaled 523 years. Redistributing liver grafts, using an age mapping algorithm, reduces the lifespan gap between younger and older candidates by 33% (from 12.3% to 8.3%) and achieves a 14% overall reduction of YLL (73 years) compared to baseline liver distribution. In conclusion, deliberately incorporating age into an allocation algorithm promotes fairness and increases efficiency.

  13. Data augmentation for models based on rejection sampling

    PubMed Central

    Rao, Vinayak; Lin, Lizhen; Dunson, David B.

    2016-01-01

    We present a data augmentation scheme to perform Markov chain Monte Carlo inference for models where data generation involves a rejection sampling algorithm. Our idea is a simple scheme to instantiate the rejected proposals preceding each data point. The resulting joint probability over observed and rejected variables can be much simpler than the marginal distribution over the observed variables, which often involves intractable integrals. We consider three problems: modelling flow-cytometry measurements subject to truncation; the Bayesian analysis of the matrix Langevin distribution on the Stiefel manifold; and Bayesian inference for a nonparametric Gaussian process density model. The latter two are instances of doubly-intractable Markov chain Monte Carlo problems, where evaluating the likelihood is intractable. Our experiments demonstrate superior performance over state-of-the-art sampling algorithms for such problems. PMID:27279660

  14. The Hierarchical Factor Model of ADHD: Invariant across Age and National Groupings?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Toplak, Maggie E.; Sorge, Geoff B.; Flora, David B.; Chen, Wai; Banaschewski, Tobias; Buitelaar, Jan; Ebstein, Richard; Eisenberg, Jacques; Franke, Barbara; Gill, Michael; Miranda, Ana; Oades, Robert D.; Roeyers, Herbert; Rothenberger, Aribert; Sergeant, Joseph; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Thompson, Margaret; Tannock, Rosemary; Asherson, Philip; Faraone, Stephen V.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To examine the factor structure of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in a clinical sample of 1,373 children and adolescents with ADHD and their 1,772 unselected siblings recruited from different countries across a large age range. Hierarchical and correlated factor analytic models were compared separately in the ADHD and…

  15. Decision Models for Determining the Optimal Life Test Sampling Plans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nechval, Nicholas A.; Nechval, Konstantin N.; Purgailis, Maris; Berzins, Gundars; Strelchonok, Vladimir F.

    2010-11-01

    Life test sampling plan is a technique, which consists of sampling, inspection, and decision making in determining the acceptance or rejection of a batch of products by experiments for examining the continuous usage time of the products. In life testing studies, the lifetime is usually assumed to be distributed as either a one-parameter exponential distribution, or a two-parameter Weibull distribution with the assumption that the shape parameter is known. Such oversimplified assumptions can facilitate the follow-up analyses, but may overlook the fact that the lifetime distribution can significantly affect the estimation of the failure rate of a product. Moreover, sampling costs, inspection costs, warranty costs, and rejection costs are all essential, and ought to be considered in choosing an appropriate sampling plan. The choice of an appropriate life test sampling plan is a crucial decision problem because a good plan not only can help producers save testing time, and reduce testing cost; but it also can positively affect the image of the product, and thus attract more consumers to buy it. This paper develops the frequentist (non-Bayesian) decision models for determining the optimal life test sampling plans with an aim of cost minimization by identifying the appropriate number of product failures in a sample that should be used as a threshold in judging the rejection of a batch. The two-parameter exponential and Weibull distributions with two unknown parameters are assumed to be appropriate for modelling the lifetime of a product. A practical numerical application is employed to demonstrate the proposed approach.

  16. Verification of relationship model between Korean new elderly class’s recovery resilience and productive aging

    PubMed Central

    Cho, Gun-Sang; Kim, Dae-Sung; Yi, Eun-Surk

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to verification of relationship model between Korean new elderly class’s recovery resilience and productive aging. As of 2013, this study sampled preliminary elderly people in Gyeonggi-do and other provinces nationwide. Data from a total of effective 484 subjects was analyzed. The collected data was processed using the IBM SPSS 20.0 and AMOS 20.0, and underwent descriptive statistical analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and structure model verification. The path coefficient associated with model fitness was examined. The standardization path coefficient between recovery resilience and productive aging is β=0.975 (t=14.790), revealing a statistically significant positive effect. Thus, it was found that the proposed basic model on the direct path of recovery resilience and productive aging was fit for the model. PMID:26730383

  17. Optimization of arterial age prediction models based in pulse wave

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scandurra, A. G.; Meschino, G. J.; Passoni, L. I.; Pra, A. L. Dai; Introzzi, A. R.; Clara, F. M.

    2007-11-01

    We propose the detection of early arterial ageing through a prediction model of arterial age based in the coherence assumption between the pulse wave morphology and the patient's chronological age. Whereas we evaluate several methods, a Sugeno fuzzy inference system is selected. Models optimization is approached using hybrid methods: parameter adaptation with Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms. Features selection was performed according with their projection on main factors of the Principal Components Analysis. The model performance was tested using the bootstrap error type .632E. The model presented an error smaller than 8.5%. This result encourages including this process as a diagnosis module into the device for pulse analysis that has been developed by the Bioengineering Laboratory staff.

  18. Transcriptional profiling reveals progeroid Ercc1-/Δ mice as a model system for glomerular aging

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Aging-related kidney diseases are a major health concern. Currently, models to study renal aging are lacking. Due to a reduced life-span progeroid models hold the promise to facilitate aging studies and allow examination of tissue-specific changes. Defects in genome maintenance in the Ercc1-/Δ progeroid mouse model result in premature aging and typical age-related pathologies. Here, we compared the glomerular transcriptome of young and aged Ercc1-deficient mice to young and aged WT mice in order to establish a novel model for research of aging-related kidney disease. Results In a principal component analysis, age and genotype emerged as first and second principal components. Hierarchical clustering of all 521 genes differentially regulated between young and old WT and young and old Ercc1-/Δ mice showed cluster formation between young WT and Ercc1-/Δ as well as old WT and Ercc1-/Δ samples. An unexpectedly high number of 77 genes were differentially regulated in both WT and Ercc1-/Δ mice (p < 0.0001). GO term enrichment analysis revealed these genes to be involved in immune and inflammatory response, cell death, and chemotaxis. In a network analysis, these genes were part of insulin signaling, chemokine and cytokine signaling and extracellular matrix pathways. Conclusion Beyond insulin signaling, we find chemokine and cytokine signaling as well as modifiers of extracellular matrix composition to be subject to major changes in the aging glomerulus. At the level of the transcriptome, the pattern of gene activities is similar in the progeroid Ercc1-/Δ mouse model constituting a valuable tool for future studies of aging-associated glomerular pathologies. PMID:23947592

  19. Sampling and specimens: potential application of a general model in geoscience sample registration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cox, S. J.; Habermann, T.; Duclaux, G.

    2011-12-01

    Sampling is a key element of observational science. Specimens are a particular class of sample, in which material is retrieved from its original location and used for ex-situ observations and analysis. Specimens retrieved from difficult locations (e.g. deep ocean sampling, extra-terrestrial sampling) or of rare phenomena, have special scientific value. Material from these may be distributed to multiple laboratories for observation. For maximum utility, reports from the different studies must be recognized and compared. This has been a challenge as the original specimens are often not clearly identified or existing ids are not reported. To mitigate this, the International Geologic Specimen Number (IGSN) provides universal, project-neutral identifiers for geoscience specimens, and SESAR a system for registering those identifiers. Standard descriptive information required for specimen registration was proposed during a SESAR meeting held in February 2011. The standard ISO 19156 'Observations and Measurements' (O&M) includes an information model for basic description of specimens. The specimen model was designed to accommodate a variety of scenarios in chemistry, geochemistry, field geology, and life-sciences, and is believed to be applicable to a wide variety of application domains. O&M is implemented in XML (as a GML Schema) for OGC services and we have recently developed a complementary semantic-web compatible RDF/OWL representation. The GML form is used in several services deployed through AuScope, and for water quality information in WIRADA. The model has underpinned the redevelopment of a large geochemistry database in CSIRO. Capturing the preparation chain is the particular challenge in (geo-) chemistry, so the flexible and scalable model provided by the specimen model in O&M has been critical to its success in this context. This standard model for specimen metadata appears to satisfy all SESAR requirements, so might serve as the basic schema in the SESAR

  20. Preliminary fission track ages for samples from western Maine: Implications for the low temperature thermal history of the region

    SciTech Connect

    Lux, D.R. . Dept. of Geological Sciences); Johnson, K. )

    1992-01-01

    In order to elucidate the low temperature cooling history of the region, 12 preliminary samples from a N-S traverse from the central Sebago batholith to the Chain of Ponds pluton were selected for fission track dating. The range of Ar-40/Ar-39 ages from the selected samples is 140 Ma (371--231 Ma) for biotites, 63 Ma (304--241 Ma) for muscovites and 61 Ma (375--304 Ma) for hornblendes. Twelve samples were dated by the external detector method and yield ages between 114 and 79 Ma. The southern most samples from the Sebago batholith and Songo pluton, within the highest metamorphic zones, are the youngest and range from 101 to 79 Ma. Those from the Mooselookmeguntic and Chain of Ponds plutons, within lower metamorphic zones, vary between 114 and 92 Ma. This general discordance trend is similar but of much smaller magnitude than the regional pattern of Ar-40/Ar-39 cooling ages. The much smaller range of apatite ages than biotite ages suggests that large differences in the thermal regime across of the region during Late Paleozoic time had largely been erased by the Early Cretaceous. The new fission track ages are interpreted to represent regional cooling through the apatite closure temperature, assumed to be ca 100 C. Young apatite ages may be the result of a regional thermal disturbance related to the intrusion of magmas of the White Mountains Plutonic Suite, as the youngest plutons are similar in age to the apatites. Alternatively, they could be the result of regional exhumation of the Acadian orogen. The authors conclude that the latter interpretation is more consistent with their data and attribute the ages to time of regional exhumation and uplift through the apatite closure temperature.

  1. Chemical enrichment and star formation in the Milky Way disk. I. Sample description and chromospheric age-metallicity relation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rocha-Pinto, H. J.; Maciel, W. J.; Scalo, J.; Flynn, C.

    2000-06-01

    The age-metallicity relation of the solar neighbourhood is studied using a sample of 552 late-type dwarfs. This sample was built from the intersection of photometric catalogues with chromospheric activity surveys of the Mount Wilson group. For these stars, metallicities were estimated from uvby data, and ages were calculated from their chromospheric emission levels using a new metallicity-dependent chromospheric activity-age relation developed by Rocha-Pinto & Maciel (\\cite{RPM98}). A careful estimate of the errors in the chromospheric age is made. The errors in the chromospheric indices are shown to include partially the effects of the stellar magnetic cycles, although a detailed treatment of this error is still beyond our knowledge. It is shown that the results are not affected by the presence of unresolved binaries in the sample. We derive an age-metallicity relation which confirms the mean trend found by previous workers. The mean metallicity shows a slow, steady increase with time, amounting at least 0.56 dex in 15 Gyr. The initial metallicity of the disk is around -0.70 dex, in agreement with the G dwarf metallicity distribution (Rocha-Pinto & Maciel \\cite{RPM96}). According to our data, the intrinsic cosmic dispersion in metal abundances is around 0.13 dex, a factor of two smaller than that found by Edvardsson et al. (\\cite{Edv}). We show that chromospheric ages are compatible with isochrone ages, within the expected errors, so that the difference in the scatter cannot be caused by the accuracy of our ages and metallicities. This reinforces some suggestions that the Edvarsson et al.'s sample is not suitable to the determination of the age-metallicity relation.

  2. CONSISTENCY UNDER SAMPLING OF EXPONENTIAL RANDOM GRAPH MODELS

    PubMed Central

    Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla; Rinaldo, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    The growing availability of network data and of scientific interest in distributed systems has led to the rapid development of statistical models of network structure. Typically, however, these are models for the entire network, while the data consists only of a sampled sub-network. Parameters for the whole network, which is what is of interest, are estimated by applying the model to the sub-network. This assumes that the model is consistent under sampling, or, in terms of the theory of stochastic processes, that it defines a projective family. Focusing on the popular class of exponential random graph models (ERGMs), we show that this apparently trivial condition is in fact violated by many popular and scientifically appealing models, and that satisfying it drastically limits ERGM’s expressive power. These results are actually special cases of more general results about exponential families of dependent random variables, which we also prove. Using such results, we offer easily checked conditions for the consistency of maximum likelihood estimation in ERGMs, and discuss some possible constructive responses. PMID:26166910

  3. Learning Adaptive Forecasting Models from Irregularly Sampled Multivariate Clinical Data

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

    2016-01-01

    Building accurate predictive models of clinical multivariate time series is crucial for understanding of the patient condition, the dynamics of a disease, and clinical decision making. A challenging aspect of this process is that the model should be flexible and adaptive to reflect well patient-specific temporal behaviors and this also in the case when the available patient-specific data are sparse and short span. To address this problem we propose and develop an adaptive two-stage forecasting approach for modeling multivariate, irregularly sampled clinical time series of varying lengths. The proposed model (1) learns the population trend from a collection of time series for past patients; (2) captures individual-specific short-term multivariate variability; and (3) adapts by automatically adjusting its predictions based on new observations. The proposed forecasting model is evaluated on a real-world clinical time series dataset. The results demonstrate the benefits of our approach on the prediction tasks for multivariate, irregularly sampled clinical time series, and show that it can outperform both the population based and patient-specific time series prediction models in terms of prediction accuracy. PMID:27525189

  4. The Genealogy of Samples in Models with Selection

    PubMed Central

    Neuhauser, C.; Krone, S. M.

    1997-01-01

    We introduce the genealogy of a random sample of genes taken from a large haploid population that evolves according to random reproduction with selection and mutation. Without selection, the genealogy is described by Kingman's well-known coalescent process. In the selective case, the genealogy of the sample is embedded in a graph with a coalescing and branching structure. We describe this graph, called the ancestral selection graph, and point out differences and similarities with Kingman's coalescent. We present simulations for a two-allele model with symmetric mutation in which one of the alleles has a selective advantage over the other. We find that when the allele frequencies in the population are already in equilibrium, then the genealogy does not differ much from the neutral case. This is supported by rigorous results. Furthermore, we describe the ancestral selection graph for other selective models with finitely many selection classes, such as the K-allele models, infinitely-many-alleles models, DNA sequence models, and infinitely-many-sites models, and briefly discuss the diploid case. PMID:9071604

  5. A Sample of Very Young Field L Dwarfs and Implications for the Brown Dwarf "Lithium Test" at Early Ages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirkpatrick, J. Davy; Cruz, Kelle L.; Barman, Travis S.; Burgasser, Adam J.; Looper, Dagny L.; Tinney, C. G.; Gelino, Christopher R.; Lowrance, Patrick J.; Liebert, James; Carpenter, John M.; Hillenbrand, Lynne A.; Stauffer, John R.

    2008-12-01

    Using a large sample of optical spectra of late-type dwarfs, we identify a subset of late-M through L field dwarfs that, because of the presence of low-gravity features in their spectra, are believed to be unusually young. From a combined sample of 303 field L dwarfs, we find observationally that 7.6% +/- 1.6% are younger than 100 Myr. This percentage is in agreement with theoretical predictions once observing biases are taken into account. We find that these young L dwarfs tend to fall in the southern hemisphere (decl . < 0°) and may be previously unrecognized, low-mass members of nearby, young associations like Tucana-Horologium, TW Hydrae, β Pictoris, and AB Doradus. We use a homogeneously observed sample of ~150 optical spectra to examine lithium strength as a function of L/T spectral type and further corroborate the trends noted by Kirkpatrick and coworkers. We use our low-gravity spectra to investigate lithium strength as a function of age. The data weakly suggest that for early- to mid-L dwarfs the line strength reaches a maximum for a few × 100 Myr, whereas for much older (few Gyr) and much younger (<100 Myr) L dwarfs the line is weaker or undetectable. We show that a weakening of lithium at lower gravities is predicted by model atmosphere calculations, an effect partially corroborated by existing observational data. Larger samples containing L dwarfs of well-determined ages are needed to further test this empirically. If verified, this result would reinforce the caveat first cited by Kirkpatrick and coworkers that the lithium test should be used with caution when attempting to confirm the substellar nature of the youngest brown dwarfs. Most of the spectroscopic data presented herein were obtained at the W. M. Keck Observatory, which is operated as a scientific partnership among the California Institute of Technology, the University of California, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The Observatory was made possible by the generous

  6. Justification of sexual reproduction by modified Penna model of ageing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sá Martins, J. S.; Stauffer, D.

    2001-05-01

    We generalize the standard Penna bit-string model of biological ageing by assuming that each deleterious mutation diminishes the survival probability in every time interval by a small percentage. This effect is added to the usual lethal but age-dependent effect of the same mutation. We then find strong advantages or disadvantages of sexual reproduction (with males and females) compared to asexual cloning, depending on parameters.

  7. Automation of sample plan creation for process model calibration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oberschmidt, James; Abdo, Amr; Desouky, Tamer; Al-Imam, Mohamed; Krasnoperova, Azalia; Viswanathan, Ramya

    2010-04-01

    The process of preparing a sample plan for optical and resist model calibration has always been tedious. Not only because it is required to accurately represent full chip designs with countless combinations of widths, spaces and environments, but also because of the constraints imposed by metrology which may result in limiting the number of structures to be measured. Also, there are other limits on the types of these structures, and this is mainly due to the accuracy variation across different types of geometries. For instance, pitch measurements are normally more accurate than corner rounding. Thus, only certain geometrical shapes are mostly considered to create a sample plan. In addition, the time factor is becoming very crucial as we migrate from a technology node to another due to the increase in the number of development and production nodes, and the process is getting more complicated if process window aware models are to be developed in a reasonable time frame, thus there is a need for reliable methods to choose sample plans which also help reduce cycle time. In this context, an automated flow is proposed for sample plan creation. Once the illumination and film stack are defined, all the errors in the input data are fixed and sites are centered. Then, bad sites are excluded. Afterwards, the clean data are reduced based on geometrical resemblance. Also, an editable database of measurement-reliable and critical structures are provided, and their percentage in the final sample plan as well as the total number of 1D/2D samples can be predefined. It has the advantage of eliminating manual selection or filtering techniques, and it provides powerful tools for customizing the final plan, and the time needed to generate these plans is greatly reduced.

  8. Causal Estimation using Semiparametric Transformation Models under Prevalent Sampling

    PubMed Central

    Cheng, Yu-Jen; Wang, Mei-Cheng

    2015-01-01

    Summary This paper develops methods and inference for causal estimation in semiparametric transformation models for prevalent survival data. Through estimation of the transformation models and covariate distribution, we propose analytical procedures to estimate the causal survival function. As the data are observational, the unobserved potential outcome (survival time) may be associated with the treatment assignment, and therefore there may exist a systematic imbalance between the data observed from each treatment arm. Further, due to prevalent sampling, subjects are observed only if they have not experienced the failure event when data collection began, causing the prevalent sampling bias. We propose a unified approach which simultaneously corrects the bias from the prevalent sampling and balances the systematic differences from the observational data. We illustrate in the simulation study that standard analysis without proper adjustment would result in biased causal inference. Large sample properties of the proposed estimation procedures are established by techniques of empirical processes and examined by simulation studies. The proposed methods are applied to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and Medicare linked data for women diagnosed with breast cancer. PMID:25715045

  9. Why is the dog an ideal model for aging research?

    PubMed

    Gilmore, Keiva M; Greer, Kimberly A

    2015-11-01

    With many caveats to the traditional vertebrate species pertaining to biogerontology investigations, it has been suggested that a most informative model is the one which: 1) examines closely related species, or various members of the same species with naturally occurring lifespan variation, 2) already has adequate medical procedures developed, 3) has a well annotated genome, 4) does not require artificial housing, and can live in its natural environment while being investigated, and 5) allows considerable information to be gathered within a relatively short period of time. The domestic dog unsurprisingly fits each criterion mentioned. The dog has already become a key model system in which to evaluate surgical techniques and novel medications because of the remarkable similarity between human and canine conditions, treatments, and response to therapy. The dog naturally serves as a disease model for study, obviating the need to construct artificial genetically modified examples of disease. Just as the dog offers a natural model for human conditions and diseases, simple observation leads to the conclusion that the canine aging phenotype also mimics that of the human. Genotype information, biochemical information pertaining to the GH/IGF-1 pathway, and some limited longitudinal investigations have begun the establishment of the domestic dog as a model of aging. Although we find that dogs indeed are a model to study aging and there are many independent pieces of canine aging data, there are many more "open" areas, ripe for investigation. PMID:26325590

  10. Cytoskeletal Pathologies of Age-Related Diseases between Elderly Sri Lankan (Colombo) and Indian (Bangalore) Brain Samples.

    PubMed

    Wijesinghe, Printha; Shankar, S K; Chickabasaviah, Yasha T; Gorrie, Catherine; Amaratunga, Dhammika; Hulathduwa, Sanjayah; Kumara, K Sunil; Samarasinghe, Kamani; Suh, Yoo Hun; Steinbusch, H W; De Silva, K Ranil D

    2016-01-01

    Within South Asia, Sri Lanka represents fastest aging with 13% of the population was aged over 60's in 2011, whereas in India it was 8%. Majority of the Sri Lankan population based genetic studies have confirmed their origin on Indian mainland. As there were inadequate data on aging cytoskeletal pathologies of these two nations with their close genetic affiliations, we performed a comparison on their elderly. Autopsy brain samples of 50 individuals from Colombo, Sri Lanka (mean age 72.1 yrs ± 7.8, mean ± S.D.) and 42 individuals from Bangalore, India (mean age 65.9 yrs ± 9.3) were screened for neurodegenerative pathologies using immunohistochemical techniques. A total of 79 cases with incomplete clinical history (Colombo- 47 and Bangalore- 32) were subjected to statistical analysis and 13 cases, clinically diagnosed with dementia and/or Parkinsonism disorders were excluded. As per National Institute on Aging- Alzheimer's Association guidelines, between Colombo and Bangalore samples, Alzheimer's disease neuropathologic change for intermediate/ high level was 4.25% vs. 3.12% and low level was 19.15% vs. 15.62% respectively. Pathologies associated with Parkinsonism including brainstem predominant Lewy bodies- 6.4% and probable progressive supra nuclear palsy- 2.13% were found solely in Colombo samples. Alzheimer related pathologies were not different among elders, however, in Colombo males, neurofibrillary tangle grade was significantly higher in the region of hippocampus (odds ratio = 1.46, 95% confidence interval = 0.07-0.7) and at risk in midbrain substantia nigra (p = 0.075). Other age-related pathologies including spongiform changes (p < 0.05) and hippocampus cell loss in dentate gyrus region (p < 0.05) were also identified prominently in Colombo samples. Taken together, aging cytoskeletal pathologies are comparatively higher in elderly Sri Lankans and this might be due to their genetic, dietary and/ or environmental variations.

  11. Cytoskeletal Pathologies of Age-Related Diseases between Elderly Sri Lankan (Colombo) and Indian (Bangalore) Brain Samples.

    PubMed

    Wijesinghe, Printha; Shankar, S K; Chickabasaviah, Yasha T; Gorrie, Catherine; Amaratunga, Dhammika; Hulathduwa, Sanjayah; Kumara, K Sunil; Samarasinghe, Kamani; Suh, Yoo Hun; Steinbusch, H W; De Silva, K Ranil D

    2016-01-01

    Within South Asia, Sri Lanka represents fastest aging with 13% of the population was aged over 60's in 2011, whereas in India it was 8%. Majority of the Sri Lankan population based genetic studies have confirmed their origin on Indian mainland. As there were inadequate data on aging cytoskeletal pathologies of these two nations with their close genetic affiliations, we performed a comparison on their elderly. Autopsy brain samples of 50 individuals from Colombo, Sri Lanka (mean age 72.1 yrs ± 7.8, mean ± S.D.) and 42 individuals from Bangalore, India (mean age 65.9 yrs ± 9.3) were screened for neurodegenerative pathologies using immunohistochemical techniques. A total of 79 cases with incomplete clinical history (Colombo- 47 and Bangalore- 32) were subjected to statistical analysis and 13 cases, clinically diagnosed with dementia and/or Parkinsonism disorders were excluded. As per National Institute on Aging- Alzheimer's Association guidelines, between Colombo and Bangalore samples, Alzheimer's disease neuropathologic change for intermediate/ high level was 4.25% vs. 3.12% and low level was 19.15% vs. 15.62% respectively. Pathologies associated with Parkinsonism including brainstem predominant Lewy bodies- 6.4% and probable progressive supra nuclear palsy- 2.13% were found solely in Colombo samples. Alzheimer related pathologies were not different among elders, however, in Colombo males, neurofibrillary tangle grade was significantly higher in the region of hippocampus (odds ratio = 1.46, 95% confidence interval = 0.07-0.7) and at risk in midbrain substantia nigra (p = 0.075). Other age-related pathologies including spongiform changes (p < 0.05) and hippocampus cell loss in dentate gyrus region (p < 0.05) were also identified prominently in Colombo samples. Taken together, aging cytoskeletal pathologies are comparatively higher in elderly Sri Lankans and this might be due to their genetic, dietary and/ or environmental variations. PMID:26906356

  12. Relationship between age and semen parameters in men with normal sperm concentration: analysis of 6022 semen samples.

    PubMed

    Levitas, E; Lunenfeld, E; Weisz, N; Friger, M; Potashnik, G

    2007-04-01

    This study evaluates retrospectively the relationship between age and semen parameters among men with normal sperm concentration. It was based on computerized data and performed in an Academic Fertility and IVF Unit. Six thousand and twenty-two semen samples with sperm concentrations of >or=20 x 10(6) ml(-1) were examined according to WHO criteria and analysed in relation to patients' age. For each age group, mean values +/- SD of semen volume, sperm concentration, percentage of motile spermatozoa, normal morphology, acrosome index, total sperm count/ejaculate, total motile sperm count/ejaculate and sexual abstinence duration were examined. A peak semen volume of 3.51 +/- 1.76 ml(-1) was observed at age >or=30 to <35 years and a lowest volume of 2.21 +/- 1.23 ml(-1) was observed at age >or=55 years (P<0.05). Sperm motility was found to be inversely related to age with peak motility of 44.39 +/- 20.69% at age <25 years and lowest motility of 24.76 +/- 18.27% at age >or=55 years (P<0.05). A reduction of 54% was observed for total motile sperm, between values of 103.34 +/- 107 x 10(6) at age >or=30 to <35 years and 46.68 +/- 53.73 x 10(6) (P<0.05) at age >55 years. A statistically significant and inverse relationship was observed between semen volume, sperm quality and patient age, in spite of prolonged sexual abstinence duration. Top sperm parameters were observed at age >or=30 to <35 years, while the most significant reduction in sperm parameters occurred after the age of 55 years.

  13. Cellular senescence in the Penna model of aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Periwal, Avikar

    2013-11-01

    Cellular senescence is thought to play a major role in age-related diseases, which cause nearly 67% of all human deaths worldwide. Recent research in mice showed that exercising mice had higher levels of telomerase, an enzyme that helps maintain telomere length, than nonexercising mice. A commonly used model for biological aging was proposed by Penna. I propose a modification of the Penna model that incorporates cellular senescence and find an analytical steady-state solution following Coe, Mao, and Cates [Phys. Rev. Lett.PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.89.288103 89, 288103 (2002)]. I find that models corresponding to delayed cellular senescence have younger populations that live longer. I fit the model to the United Kingdom's death distribution, which the original Penna model cannot do.

  14. Physical Models of Seismic-Attenuation Measurements on Lab Samples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coulman, T. J.; Morozov, I. B.

    2012-12-01

    Seismic attenuation in Earth materials is often measured in the lab by using low-frequency forced oscillations or static creep experiments. The usual assumption in interpreting and even designing such experiments is the "viscoelastic" behavior of materials, i.e., their description by the notions of a Q-factor and material memory. However, this is not the only theoretical approach to internal friction, and it also involves several contradictions with conventional mechanics. From the viewpoint of mechanics, the frequency-dependent Q becomes a particularly enigmatic property attributed to the material. At the same time, the behavior of rock samples in seismic-attenuation experiments can be explained by a strictly mechanical approach. We use this approach to simulate such experiments analytically and numerically for a system of two cylinders consisting of a rock sample and elastic standard undergoing forced oscillations, and also for a single rock sample cylinder undergoing static creep. The system is subject to oscillatory compression or torsion, and the phase-lag between the sample and standard is measured. Unlike in the viscoelastic approach, a full Lagrangian formulation is considered, in which material anelasticity is described by parameters of "solid viscosity" and a dissipation function from which the constitutive equation is derived. Results show that this physical model of anelasticity predicts creep results very close to those obtained by using empirical Burger's bodies or Andrade laws. With nonlinear (non-Newtonian) solid viscosity, the system shows an almost instantaneous initial deformation followed by slow creep towards an equilibrium. For Aheim Dunite, the "rheologic" parameters of nonlinear viscosity are υ=0.79 and η=2.4 GPa-s. Phase-lag results for nonlinear viscosity show Q's slowly decreasing with frequency. To explain a Q increasing with frequency (which is often observed in the lab and in the field), one has to consider nonlinear viscosity with

  15. Relationships among Age, Exercise, Health, and Cognitive Function in a British Sample.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Emery, Charles F.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    Evaluates the association of age, self-rated health, and walking activity with 4 measures of cognitive functioning in 6,979 randomly selected people ranging in age from 18 to 94. Assessments included a face-to-face interview regarding health and health beliefs as well as cognitive testing. Analyses indicated that faster reaction time speed was…

  16. Social Work Faculty's Knowledge of Aging: Results from a National Sample

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Donna S.; Chonody, Jill M.; Krase, Kathryn

    2013-01-01

    Social work students have reported in previous studies that they receive insufficient coursework and training to work effectively with older adults. A critical factor in these deficiencies may be the level of knowledge of social work faculty. This study sought to assess social work faculty's knowledge of aging using the Knowledge of Aging for…

  17. Effects of Gender, Age, and Education on Assertiveness in a Nigerian Sample

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Onyeizugbo, Eucharia U.

    2003-01-01

    Two hundred fourteen (214) married persons, 101 men and 113 women aged 20-60, with at least high school education, participated in the study which investigated the effects of gender, age, and educational attainment on assertiveness among married persons in Nigeria. The Assertive Behavior Assessment scale (ABAS; Onyeizugbo, 1998) was used to…

  18. Financial capability, asset ownership, and later-age immigration: evidence from a sample of low-income older Asian immigrants.

    PubMed

    Nam, Yunju; Lee, Eun Jeong; Huang, Jin; Kim, Junpyo

    2015-01-01

    We examined financial capability and asset ownership among low-income older Asian immigrants with special attention given to later-age immigrants who came to the United States when they were 55 years old or older. Survey data collected from supported employment program participants (N = 150) were used. The analyses demonstrated a low level of financial knowledge and asset ownership in the sample. The findings also indicated that later-age immigrants' financial-management skills, knowledge of social programs, and asset ownership were significantly lower than those of young-age immigrants. These findings call for active interventions to enhance economic security among low-income older Asian immigrants.

  19. Applicability of Demirjian's four methods and Willems method for age estimation in a sample of Turkish children.

    PubMed

    Akkaya, Nursel; Yilanci, Hümeyra Özge; Göksülük, Dinçer

    2015-09-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate applicability of five dental methods including Demirjian's original, revised, four teeth, and alternate four teeth methods and Willems method for age estimation in a sample of Turkish children. Panoramic radiographs of 799 children (412 females, 387 males) aged between 2.20 and 15.99years were examined by two observers. A repeated measures ANOVA was performed to compare dental methods among gender and age groups. All of the five methods overestimated the chronological age on the average. Among these, Willems method was found to be the most accurate method, which showed 0.07 and 0.15years overestimation for males and females, respectively. It was followed by Demirjian's four teeth methods, revised and original methods. According to the results, Willems method can be recommended for dental age estimation of Turkish children in forensic applications.

  20. Assessing the Impact of Equipment Aging on System Performance Using Simulation Modeling Methods

    SciTech Connect

    Gupta, N. K.

    2005-11-07

    The radiological Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometer (ICP-MS) is used to analyze the radioactive samples collected from different radioactive material processing operations at Savannah River Site (SRS). The expeditious processing of these samples is important for safe and reliable operations at SRS. As the radiological (RAD) ICP-MS machine ages, the experience shows that replacement parts and repairs are difficult to obtain on time for reliable operations after 5 years of service. A discrete event model using commercial software EXTEND was prepared to assess the impact on sample turn around times as the ICP-MS gets older. The model was prepared using the sample statistics from the previous 4 years. Machine utilization rates were calculated for the new machine, 5 year old machine, 10 year old machine, and a 12 year old machine. Computer simulations were run for these periods and the sample delay times calculated. The model was validated against the sample statistics collected from the previous 4 quarters. 90% confidence intervals were calculated for the 10th, 25th, 50th, and 90th quantiles of the samples. The simulation results show that if 50% of the samples are needed on time for efficient site operations, a 10 year old machine could take nearly 50 days longer to process these samples than a 5-year old machine. This simulation effort quantifies the impact on sample turn around time as the ICP-MS gets older.

  1. Computationally Modeling Lipid Metabolism and Aging: A Mini-review

    PubMed Central

    Mc Auley, Mark T.; Mooney, Kathleen M.

    2014-01-01

    One of the greatest challenges in biology is to improve the understanding of the mechanisms which underpin aging and how these affect health. The need to better understand aging is amplified by demographic changes, which have caused a gradual increase in the global population of older people. Aging western populations have resulted in a rise in the prevalence of age-related pathologies. Of these diseases, cardiovascular disease is the most common underlying condition in older people. The dysregulation of lipid metabolism due to aging impinges significantly on cardiovascular health. However, the multifaceted nature of lipid metabolism and the complexities of its interaction with aging make it challenging to understand by conventional means. To address this challenge computational modeling, a key component of the systems biology paradigm is being used to study the dynamics of lipid metabolism. This mini-review briefly outlines the key regulators of lipid metabolism, their dysregulation, and how computational modeling is being used to gain an increased insight into this system. PMID:25750699

  2. TOWARD PRECISE AGES FOR SINGLE STARS IN THE FIELD. GYROCHRONOLOGY CONSTRAINTS AT SEVERAL Gyr USING WIDE BINARIES. I. AGES FOR INITIAL SAMPLE

    SciTech Connect

    Chaname, Julio; Ramirez, Ivan

    2012-02-10

    We present a program designed to obtain age-rotation measurements of solar-type dwarfs to be used in the calibration of gyrochronology relations at ages of several Gyr. This is a region of parameter space crucial for the large-scale study of the Milky Way, and where the only constraint available today is that provided by the Sun. Our program takes advantage of a set of wide binaries selected so that one component is an evolved star and the other is a main-sequence star of FGK type. In this way, we obtain the age of the system from the evolved star, while the rotational properties of the main-sequence component provide the information relevant for gyrochronology regarding the spin-down of solar-type stars. By mining currently available catalogs of wide binaries, we assemble a sample of 37 pairs well positioned for our purposes: 19 with turnoff or subgiant primaries and 18 with white dwarf components. Using high-resolution optical spectroscopy, we measure precise stellar parameters for a subset of 15 of the pairs with turnoff/subgiant components and use these to derive isochronal ages for the corresponding systems. Ages for 16 of the 18 pairs with white dwarf components are taken from the literature. The ages of this initial sample of 31 wide binaries range from 1 to 9 Gyr, with precisions better than {approx}20% for almost half of these systems. When combined with measurements of the rotation period of their main-sequence components, these wide binary systems would potentially provide a similar number of points useful for the calibration of gyrochronology relations at very old ages.

  3. Porosity estimation of aged mortar using a micromechanical model.

    PubMed

    Hernández, M G; Anaya, J J; Sanchez, T; Segura, I

    2006-12-22

    Degradation of concrete structures located in high humidity atmospheres or under flowing water is a very important problem. In this study, a method for ultrasonic non-destructive characterization in aged mortar is presented. The proposed method makes a prediction of the behaviour of aged mortar accomplished with a three phase micromechanical model using ultrasonic measurements. Aging mortar was accelerated by immersing the probes in ammonium nitrate solution. Both destructive and non-destructive characterization of mortar was performed. Destructive tests of porosity were performed using a vacuum saturation method and non-destructive characterization was carried out using ultrasonic velocities. Aging experiments show that mortar degradation not only involves a porosity increase, but also microstructural changes in the cement matrix. Experimental results show that the estimated porosity using the proposed non-destructive methodology had a comparable performance to classical destructive techniques.

  4. Old Age Portrayed by the Ages-of-Life Models from the Middle Ages to the Sixteenth Century.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Covey, Herbert C.

    1989-01-01

    The ages of life portrayed in literature and the arts from the late Middle Ages up to the sixteenth century provide valuable information on how aging and old age were perceived in earlier times. Themes related to old age include ambivalence, decay, and age-appropriate behavior. (Author)

  5. Volcanic Aerosol Evolution: Model vs. In Situ Sampling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pfeffer, M. A.; Rietmeijer, F. J.; Brearley, A. J.; Fischer, T. P.

    2002-12-01

    Volcanoes are the most significant non-anthropogenic source of tropospheric aerosols. Aerosol samples were collected at different distances from 92°C fumarolic source at Poás Volcano. Aerosols were captured on TEM grids coated by a thin C-film using a specially designed collector. In the sampling, grids were exposed to the plume for 30-second intervals then sealed and frozen to prevent reaction before ATEM analysis to determine aerosol size and chemistry. Gas composition was established using gas chromatography, wet chemistry techniques, AAS and Ion Chromatography on samples collected directly from a fumarolic vent. SO2 flux was measured remotely by COSPEC. A Gaussian plume dispersion model was used to model concentrations of the gases at different distances down-wind. Calculated mixing ratios of air and the initial gas species were used as input to the thermo-chemical model GASWORKS (Symonds and Reed, Am. Jour. Sci., 1993). Modeled products were compared with measured aerosol compositions. Aerosols predicted to precipitate out of the plume one meter above the fumarole are [CaSO4, Fe2.3SO4, H2SO4, MgF2. Na2SO4, silica, water]. Where the plume leaves the confines of the crater, 380 meters distant, the predicted aerosols are the same, excepting FeF3 replacing Fe2.3SO4. Collected aerosols show considerable compositional differences between the sampling locations and are more complex than those predicted. Aerosols from the fumarole consist of [Fe +/- Si,S,Cl], [S +/- O] and [Si +/- O]. Aerosols collected on the crater rim consist of the same plus [O,Na,Mg,Ca], [O,Si,Cl +/- Fe], [Fe,O,F] and [S,O +/- Mg,Ca]. The comparison between results obtained by the equilibrium gas model and the actual aerosol compositions shows that an assumption of chemical and thermal equilibrium evolution is invalid. The complex aerosols collected contrast the simple formulae predicted. These findings show that complex, non-equilibrium chemical reactions take place immediately upon volcanic

  6. De novo protein conformational sampling using a probabilistic graphical model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharya, Debswapna; Cheng, Jianlin

    2015-11-01

    Efficient exploration of protein conformational space remains challenging especially for large proteins when assembling discretized structural fragments extracted from a protein structure data database. We propose a fragment-free probabilistic graphical model, FUSION, for conformational sampling in continuous space and assess its accuracy using ‘blind’ protein targets with a length up to 250 residues from the CASP11 structure prediction exercise. The method reduces sampling bottlenecks, exhibits strong convergence, and demonstrates better performance than the popular fragment assembly method, ROSETTA, on relatively larger proteins with a length of more than 150 residues in our benchmark set. FUSION is freely available through a web server at http://protein.rnet.missouri.edu/FUSION/.

  7. Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models.

    PubMed

    Natesan, Prathiba

    2015-01-01

    Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading

  8. Probabilistic Generalization of Penna Ageing Model and the Oldest Old

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stauffer, D.

    Using a 1995 method of Thoms et al., the traditional Penna model of biological ageing is modified such that there is no more absolute maximum life span; instead, our Monte Carlo data are similar to real demographic data collected by Thatcher et al., for rich countries.

  9. Some correlation of rock exposure ages and regolith dynamics. [in lunar samples

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horz, F.; Gibbons, R. V.; Gault, D. E.; Hartung, J. B.; Brownlee, D. E.

    1975-01-01

    Exposure age information on lunar rocks and regolith turnover rates are correlated. If plotted in a cumulative fashion, the distribution of spallogenic noble-gas exposure ages is remarkably parallel to the rate at which various fractions of the regolith surface are cratered and/or excavated. It appears that the rate at which lunar rocks are excavated from within the regolith is strongly controlled by the impact environment. Some suggestions for future refinement of regolith dynamics are presented.

  10. Modeling and Simulation of a Tethered Harpoon for Comet Sampling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quadrelli, Marco B.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the development of a dynamic model and simulation results of a tethered harpoon for comet sampling. This model and simulation was done in order to carry out an initial sensitivity analysis for key design parameters of the tethered system. The harpoon would contain a canister which would collect a sample of soil from a cometary surface. Both a spring ejected canister and a tethered canister are considered. To arrive in close proximity of the spacecraft at the end of its trajectory so it could be captured, the free-flying canister would need to be ejected at the right time and with the proper impulse, while the tethered canister must be recovered by properly retrieving the tether at a rate that would avoid an excessive amplitude of oscillatory behavior during the retrieval. The paper describes the model of the tether dynamics and harpoon penetration physics. The simulations indicate that, without the tether, the canister would still reach the spacecraft for collection, that the tether retrieval of the canister would be achievable with reasonable fuel consumption, and that the canister amplitude upon retrieval would be insensitive to variations in vertical velocity dispersion.

  11. Modeling sugarcane growth in response to age, insolation, and temperature

    SciTech Connect

    How, K.T.S.

    1986-01-01

    Modeling sugarcane growth in response to age of cane, insolation and air temperature using first-order multiple regression analysis and a nonlinear approach is investigated. Data are restricted to one variety from irrigated fields to eliminate the impact of varietal response and rainfall. Ten first-order models are investigated. The predictant is cane yield from 600 field tests. The predictors are cumulative values of insolation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature for 3, 6, 12, and 18 months, or for each crop period derived from weather observations near the test plots. The low R-square values indicate that the selected predictor variables could not account for a substantial proportion of the variations of cane yield and the models have limited predictive values. The nonlinear model is based on known functional relationships between growth and age, growth and insolation, and growth and maximum temperature. A mathematical expression that integrates the effect of age, insolation and maximum temperature is developed. The constant terms and coefficients of the equation are determined from the requirement that the model must produce results that are reasonable when compared with observed monthly elongation data. The nonlinear model is validated and tested using another set of data.

  12. Age of stratospheric air and aging by mixing in global models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garny, Hella; Dietmüller, Simone; Plöger, Felix; Birner, Thomas; Bönisch, Harald; Jöckel, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    The Brewer-Dobson circulation is often quantified by the integrated transport measure age of air (AoA). AoA is affected by all transport processes, including transport along the residual mean mass circulation and two-way mixing. A large spread in the simulation of AoA by current global models exists. Using CCMVal-2 and CCMI-1 global model data, we show that this spread can only in small parts be attributed to differences in the simulated residual circulation. Instead, large differences in the "mixing efficiency" strongly contribute to the differences in the simulated AoA. The "mixing efficiency" is defined as the ratio of the two-way mixing mass flux across the subtropical barrier to the net (residual) mass flux, and this mixing efficiency controls the relative increase in AoA by mixing. We derive the mixing efficiency from global model data using the analytical solution of a simplified version of the tropical leaky pipe (TLP) model, in which vertical diffusion is neglected. Thus, it is assumed that only residual mean transport and horizontal two-way mixing across the subtropical barrier controls AoA. However, in global models vertical mixing and numerical diffusion modify AoA, and these processes likely contribute to the differences in the mixing efficiency between models. We explore the contributions of diffusion and mixing on mean AoA by a) using simulations with the tropical leaky pipe model including vertical diffusion and b) explicit calculations of aging by mixing on resolved scales. Using the TLP model, we show that vertical diffusion leads to a decrease in tropical AoA, i.e. counteracts the increase in tropical mean AoA due to horizontal mixing. Thus, neglecting vertical diffusion leads to an underestimation of the mixing efficiency. With explicit calculations of aging by mixing via integration of daily local mixing tendencies along residual circulation trajectories, we explore the contributions of vertical and horizontal mixing for aging by mixing. The

  13. Thermal modeling of core sampling in flammable gas waste tanks. Part 2: Rotary-mode sampling

    SciTech Connect

    Unal, C.; Poston, D.; Pasamehmetoglu, K.O.; Witwer, K.S.

    1997-08-01

    The radioactive waste stored in underground storage tanks at Hanford site includes mixtures of sodium nitrate and sodium nitrite with organic compounds. The waste can produce undesired violent exothermic reactions when heated locally during the rotary-mode sampling. Experiments are performed varying the downward force at a maximum rotational speed of 55 rpm and minimum nitrogen purge flow of 30 scfm. The rotary drill bit teeth-face temperatures are measured. The waste is simulated with a low thermal conductivity hard material, pumice blocks. A torque meter is used to determine the energy provided to the drill string. The exhaust air-chip temperature as well as drill string and drill bit temperatures and other key operating parameters were recorded. A two-dimensional thermal model is developed. The safe operating conditions were determined for normal operating conditions. A downward force of 750 at 55 rpm and 30 scfm nitrogen purge flow was found to yield acceptable substrate temperatures. The model predicted experimental results reasonably well. Therefore, it could be used to simulate abnormal conditions to develop procedures for safe operations.

  14. Feeding Practices and Styles Used by a Diverse Sample of Low-Income Parents of Preschool-age Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ventura, Alison K.; Gromis, Judy C.; Lohse, Barbara

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To describe the feeding practices and styles used by a diverse sample of low-income parents of preschool-age children. Design: Thirty- to 60-minute meetings involving a semistructured interview and 2 questionnaires administered by the interviewer. Setting: Low-income communities in Philadelphia, PA. Participants: Thirty-two parents of…

  15. Estimated Prevalence of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in a Sample of Panamanian School-Aged Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sanchez, Emelyn Y.; Velarde, Silvia; Britton, Gabrielle B.

    2011-01-01

    The present study investigated the prevalence of ADHD in a school sample of children ages 6-11 years in the city of Panama. The assessment battery included the Conners' Parent and Teacher Rating Scales, the Structured Developmental History of the Behavioral Assessment System for Children (BASC-2), and the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children…

  16. Relationships between Narrative Language Samples and Norm-Referenced Test Scores in Language Assessments of School-Age Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ebert, Kerry Danahy; Scott, Cheryl M.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Both narrative language samples and norm-referenced language tests can be important components of language assessment for school-age children. The present study explored the relationship between these 2 tools within a group of children referred for language assessment. Method: The study is a retrospective analysis of clinical records from…

  17. Chemical analyses and K-Ar ages of samples from 13 drill holes, Medicine Lake volcano, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.

    2006-01-01

    Chemical analyses and K-Ar ages are presented for rocks sampled from drill holes at Medicine Lake volcano, northern California. A location map and a cross-section are included, as are separate tables for drill hole information, major and trace element data, and for K-Ar dates.

  18. Sampling date, leaf age and root size: implications for the study of plant C:N:p stoichiometry.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Haiyang; Wu, Honghui; Yu, Qiang; Wang, Zhengwen; Wei, Cunzheng; Long, Min; Kattge, Jens; Smith, Melinda; Han, Xingguo

    2013-01-01

    Plant carbon : nitrogen : phosphorus (C:N:P) ratios are powerful indicators of diverse ecological processes. During plant development and growth, plant C:N:P stoichiometry responds to environmental conditions and physiological constraints. However, variations caused by effects of sampling (i.e. sampling date, leaf age and root size) often have been neglected in previous studies. We investigated the relative contributions of sampling date, leaf age, root size and species identity to stoichiometric flexibility in a field mesocosm study and a natural grassland in Inner Mongolia. We found that sampling date, leaf age, root size and species identity all significantly affected C:N:P stoichiometry both in the pot study as well as in the field. Overall, C:N and C:P ratios increased significantly over time and with increasing leaf age and root size, while the dynamics of N:P ratios depended on species identity. Our results suggest that attempts to synthesize C:N:P stoichiometry data across studies that span regional to global scales and include many species need to better account for temporal variation.

  19. USE OF COMMERCIAL TELEPHONE DIRECTORY FOR OBTAINING A POPULATION-BASED SAMPLE OF WOMEN OF REPRODUCTIVE AGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Using Commercial Telephone Directories to Obtain a Population-Based Sample for Mail Survey of Women of Reproductive Age

    Danelle T. Lobdella, Germaine M. Buckb, John M. Weinerc, Pauline Mendolaa

    aUnited States Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and ...

  20. Martian Radiative Transfer Modeling Using the Optimal Spectral Sampling Method

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eluszkiewicz, J.; Cady-Pereira, K.; Uymin, G.; Moncet, J.-L.

    2005-01-01

    The large volume of existing and planned infrared observations of Mars have prompted the development of a new martian radiative transfer model that could be used in the retrievals of atmospheric and surface properties. The model is based on the Optimal Spectral Sampling (OSS) method [1]. The method is a fast and accurate monochromatic technique applicable to a wide range of remote sensing platforms (from microwave to UV) and was originally developed for the real-time processing of infrared and microwave data acquired by instruments aboard the satellites forming part of the next-generation global weather satellite system NPOESS (National Polarorbiting Operational Satellite System) [2]. As part of our on-going research related to the radiative properties of the martian polar caps, we have begun the development of a martian OSS model with the goal of using it to perform self-consistent atmospheric corrections necessary to retrieve caps emissivity from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) spectra. While the caps will provide the initial focus area for applying the new model, it is hoped that the model will be of interest to the wider Mars remote sensing community.

  1. Liver aging and pseudocapillarization in a Werner syndrome mouse model.

    PubMed

    Cogger, Victoria C; Svistounov, Dmitri; Warren, Alessandra; Zykova, Svetlana; Melvin, Richard G; Solon-Biet, Samantha M; O'Reilly, Jennifer N; McMahon, Aisling C; Ballard, J William O; De Cabo, Rafa; Le Couteur, David G; Lebel, Michel

    2014-09-01

    Werner syndrome is a progeric syndrome characterized by premature atherosclerosis, diabetes, cancer, and death in humans. The knockout mouse model created by deletion of the RecQ helicase domain of the mouse Wrn homologue gene (Wrn(∆hel/∆hel)) is of great interest because it develops atherosclerosis and hypertriglyceridemia, conditions associated with aging liver and sinusoidal changes. Here, we show that Wrn(∆hel/∆hel) mice exhibit increased extracellular matrix, defenestration, decreased fenestration diameter, and changes in markers of liver sinusoidal endothelial cell inflammation, consistent with age-related pseudocapilliarization. In addition, hepatocytes are larger, have increased lipofuscin deposition, more frequent nuclear morphological anomalies, decreased mitochondria number, and increased mitochondrial diameter compared to wild-type mice. The Wrn(∆hel/∆hel) mice also have altered mitochondrial function and altered nuclei. Microarray data revealed that the Wrn(∆hel/∆hel) genotype does not affect the expression of many genes within the isolated hepatocytes or liver sinusoidal endothelial cells. This study reveals that Wrn(∆hel/∆hel) mice have accelerated typical age-related liver changes including pseudocapillarization. This confirms that pseudocapillarization of the liver sinusoid is a consistent feature of various aging models. Moreover, it implies that DNA repair may be implicated in normal aging changes in the liver.

  2. Age and Social Context Modulate the Effect of Anxiety on Risk-taking in Pediatric Samples

    PubMed Central

    Rosen, Dana; Patel, Nilam; Pavletic, Nevia; Grillon, Christian; Pine, Daniel S.

    2016-01-01

    Although risk-taking has been studied from a developmental perspective, no study has examined how anxiety, age, risk-valence and social context interact to modulate decision-making in youths. This study probes this question using a risk-taking task, the Stunt Task, in clinically anxious children (n=17, 10 F, age=8.3–12.1 years), healthy children (n=13, 4 F, age=9.3–12.2 years), clinically anxious adolescents (n=18, 6 F, age=12.3–17.7 years), and healthy adolescents (n =14, 10 F, age=12.5–17.3 years). Social context was manipulated: in one condition, participants were led to believe that a group of peers were observing and judging their performance (peer-judge), while, in the other condition, they were led to believe that peers were not observing them (control). Only anxious children showed an influence of social context on their risk-taking behavior. Specifically, anxious children bet significantly less and had slower reaction times (RT) during the peer-judge than control condition. However, across social conditions, risk-valence modulated RT differently in function of age and diagnosis. Anxious children were slower on the positive-valence risky trial, whereas anxious adolescents were slower on the negative-valence risky trials relative to their respective healthy peers. In conclusion, clinically anxious children were the only group that was sensitive (risk-averse) to the effect of a negative peer-judge context. The negative peer-judge context did not affect risky decision-making in adolescents, whether they were anxious or healthy. Future work using a stronger aversive social context might be more effective at influencing risky behavior in this age group. PMID:26659306

  3. Digital Coordinates and Age of More Than 13,000 Foraminifers Samples Collected by Chevron Petroleum Geologists in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Malmblorg, William T.; West, William B.; Brabb, Earl E.; Parker, John M.

    2008-01-01

    The general location and age of more than 33,500 mostly foraminifer samples from Chevron surface localities in nearly 600 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 7.5' quadrangles from California were provided by Brabb and Parker (2003). Barren and non-diagnostic samples plus many that have no paleontologic information were omitted to provide a revised list for more than 27,000 of these samples by Brabb and Parker (2005). The locations for many of these samples were recorded by Chevron geoscientists on topographic maps (originals now in the USGS Library in Menlo Park, Calif.). The recent availability of digital databases for geologic and topographic maps has provided the opportunity to prepare a database of the locations of these Chevron samples so that the information can be combined with geology and topography for plotting or geospatial analysis. This report provides specific locations for more than 13,000 samples in central California that have enough paleontologic information to determine their age but omits thousands of samples that are too closely spaced to differentiate or those that have only a general location.

  4. Sparse model selection in the highly under-sampled regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulso, Nicola; Marsili, Matteo; Roudi, Yasser

    2016-09-01

    We propose a method for recovering the structure of a sparse undirected graphical model when very few samples are available. The method decides about the presence or absence of bonds between pairs of variable by considering one pair at a time and using a closed form formula, analytically derived by calculating the posterior probability for every possible model explaining a two body system using Jeffreys prior. The approach does not rely on the optimization of any cost functions and consequently is much faster than existing algorithms. Despite this time and computational advantage, numerical results show that for several sparse topologies the algorithm is comparable to the best existing algorithms, and is more accurate in the presence of hidden variables. We apply this approach to the analysis of US stock market data and to neural data, in order to show its efficiency in recovering robust statistical dependencies in real data with non-stationary correlations in time and/or space.

  5. Rotifers as models for the biology of aging.

    PubMed

    Snell, Terry W

    2014-03-01

    It has been two decades since 1993 when research on the biology of rotifer aging was last reviewed by Enesco. Much has transpired during this time as rotifer biologists have adapted to the "omics" revolution and incorporated these techniques into the experimental analysis of rotifers. Rotifers are amenable to many of these approaches and getting adequate quantities of DNA, RNA, and protein from rotifers is not difficult. Analysis of rotifer genomes, transcriptomes, and proteomes is rapidly yielding candidate genes that likely regulate a variety of features of rotifer biology. Parallel developments in aging biology have recognized the limitations of standard animal models like worms and flies and that comparative aging research has essentially ignored a large fraction of animal phylogeny in the lophotrochozoans. As experimentally tractable members of this group, rotifers have attracted interest as models of aging. In this paper, I review advances over the past 20 years in the biology of aging in rotifers, with emphasis on the unique contributions of rotifer models for understanding aging. The majority of experimental work has manipulated rotifer diet and followed changes in survival and reproductive dynamics like mean lifespan, maximum lifespan, reproductive lifespan, and mortality rate doubling time. The main dietary manipulation has been some form of caloric restriction, withholding food for some period or feeding continuously at low levels. There have been comparative studies of several rotifer species, with some species responding to caloric restriction with life extension, but others not, at least under the tested food regimens. Other aspects of diet are less explored, like nutritional properties of different algae species and their capacity to extend rotifer lifespan. Several descriptive studies have reported many genes involved in rotifer aging by comparing gene expression in young and old individuals. Classes of genes up or down-regulated during aging have

  6. Aging, Neurogenesis, and Caloric Restriction in Different Model Organisms

    PubMed Central

    Arslan-Ergul, Ayca; Ozdemir, A Tugrul; Adams, Michelle M

    2013-01-01

    Brain aging is a multifactorial process that is occurring across multiple cognitive domains. A significant complaint that occurs in the elderly is a decrement in learning and memory ability. Both rodents and zebrafish exhibit a similar problem with memory during aging. The neurobiological changes that underlie this cognitive decline are complex and undoubtedly influenced by many factors. Alterations in the birth of new neurons and neuron turnover may contribute to age-related cognitive problems. Caloric restriction is the only non-genetic intervention that reliably increases life span and healthspan across multiple organisms although the molecular mechanisms are not well-understood. Recently the zebrafish has become a popular model organism for understanding the neurobiological consequences but to date very little work has been performed. Similarly, few studies have examined the effects of dietary restriction in zebrafish. Here we review the literature related to memory decline, neurogenesis, and caloric restriction across model organisms and suggest that zebrafish has the potential to be an important animal model for understanding the complex interactions between age, neurobiological changes in the brain, and dietary regimens or their mimetics as interventions. PMID:23936746

  7. Anomalous scaling in an age-dependent branching model.

    PubMed

    Keller-Schmidt, Stephanie; Tuğrul, Murat; Eguíluz, Víctor M; Hernández-García, Emilio; Klemm, Konstantin

    2015-02-01

    We introduce a one-parametric family of tree growth models, in which branching probabilities decrease with branch age τ as τ(-α). Depending on the exponent α, the scaling of tree depth with tree size n displays a transition between the logarithmic scaling of random trees and an algebraic growth. At the transition (α=1) tree depth grows as (logn)(2). This anomalous scaling is in good agreement with the trend observed in evolution of biological species, thus providing a theoretical support for age-dependent speciation and associating it to the occurrence of a critical point.

  8. Anomalous scaling in an age-dependent branching model.

    PubMed

    Keller-Schmidt, Stephanie; Tuğrul, Murat; Eguíluz, Víctor M; Hernández-García, Emilio; Klemm, Konstantin

    2015-02-01

    We introduce a one-parametric family of tree growth models, in which branching probabilities decrease with branch age τ as τ(-α). Depending on the exponent α, the scaling of tree depth with tree size n displays a transition between the logarithmic scaling of random trees and an algebraic growth. At the transition (α=1) tree depth grows as (logn)(2). This anomalous scaling is in good agreement with the trend observed in evolution of biological species, thus providing a theoretical support for age-dependent speciation and associating it to the occurrence of a critical point. PMID:25768548

  9. Computer simulation of Aphis gossypii insects using Penna aging model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giarola, L. T. P.; Martins, S. G. F.; Toledo Costa, M. C. P.

    2006-08-01

    A computer simulation was made for the population dynamics of Aphis gossypii in laboratory and field conditions. The age structure was inserted in the dynamics through bit string model for biological aging, proposed by Penna in 1995. The influence of different host plants and of climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation was considered in the simulation starting from experimental data. The results obtained indicate that the simulation is an appropriate instrument for understanding of the population dynamics of these species and for the establishment of biological control strategies.

  10. Scaling in a Continuous Time Model for Biological Aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Almeida, R. M. C.; Thomas, G. L.

    In this paper, we consider a generalization to the asexual version of Penna model for biological aging, where we take a continuous time limit. The genotype associated to each individual is an interval of real numbers over which Dirac δ-functions are defined, representing genetically programmed diseases to be switched on at defined ages of the individual life. We discuss two different continuous limits for the evolution equation and two different mutation protocols, to be implemented during reproduction. Exact stationary solutions are obtained and scaling properties are discussed.

  11. Constructing cranial ontogenetic trajectories: A comparison of growth, development, and chronological age proxies using a known-age sample of Macaca mulatta.

    PubMed

    Simons, Evan A; Frost, Stephen R

    2016-10-01

    Recent morphometric research has generated opposing conclusions regarding the ontogenetic trajectories of catarrhine crania, possibly due to the ontogenetic proxies used to calculate them. Therefore, we used three surrogates: size, molar eruption, and chronological age to generate trajectories in a known-age sample to produce ontogenetic trajectories and determine the similarities and differences between them. Forty-three landmarks from an ontogenetic series of 160 Macaca mulatta crania, with associated ages at death, were used to produce ontogenetic trajectories of cranial shape change. These were computed by sex through multivariate regression of Procrustes aligned coordinates against three surrogates for ontogeny: natural log of centroid size (growth), molar eruption stage (development), and chronological age. These trajectories were compared by calculating the angles between them. Each trajectory was also used to produce simulated adults from juveniles, which were then compared with each other and actual adults. The different trajectories are nearly parallel as each of the surrogates track similar aspects of ontogenetic cranial shape change, but chronological age was the most divergent. Simulated adults produced using the developmental stage trajectories were most similar to actual adults. When simulated adults were produced from opposite sex trajectories, they resembled the sex from which the trajectory was produced, not the sex of the juvenile specimen. We discuss properties of the trajectories produced from each of the surrogates, the possible reasons for previously opposing conclusions, how these properties can inform future investigations, and how our investigation bears on analyses of heterochrony.

  12. Comparison of the applicability of four odontological methods for age estimation of the 14 years legal threshold in a sample of Italian adolescents.

    PubMed

    Pinchi, Vilma; Norelli, Gian-Aristide; Pradella, Francesco; Vitale, Giulia; Rugo, Dario; Nieri, Michele

    2012-12-01

    The 14-years age threshold is especially important in Italy for criminal, civil and administrative laws. Several methods relying on dental calcification of the teeth, up to the second molar, are used for the evaluation of age in childhood. The objective of the research was to compare the inter-rater agreement and accuracy of four common methods for the dental age estimation - Demirjian (D), Willems (W), Cameriere (C) and Haavikko (H) - in a sample of Italian adolescents between 11 and 16 years. The sensitivity and specificity, and the different level of probability, according to the peculiarities of Italian criminal and civil law, were compared for the methods examined, considering the threshold of 14 years. The sample was composed of 501 digital OPGs of Italian children (257 females and 244 males), aged from 11 years and 0 days to 15 years and 364 days. The maturation stage of the teeth was evaluated according to D, W, H and C methods by three independent examiners. Mixed statistical models were applied to compare the accuracy and the errors of each method. The inter-rater agreement was high for the four methods and the intraclass correlation coefficients were all ≥ 0.81. Methods H and C showed a general tendency to underestimate the age in the considered sample while the methods D and W tended to overestimate the child's age. In females, D and W were more accurate than C, which is more accurate than H. In the males, W is the most accurate method even though it over-estimated age. Considering the 14-years threshold, the sensitivity of D and W methods is quite high (range 0.80; 0.95) and specificity is low (range 0.61; 0.86). The principal findings of the research are: the W and D methods are much more accurate than C and H, but they tend to overestimate the age. The C method largely underestimates the age (by ~1 year) for both genders and for all operators. H is unsuitable for dental age estimation in the Italian population, while W and D yielded high

  13. Biannual otolith-zone formation of young shallow-water hake Merluccius capensis in the northern Benguela: age verification using otoliths sampled by a top predator.

    PubMed

    Wilhelm, M R; Roux, J-P; Moloney, C L; Jarre, A

    2015-07-01

    Otoliths collected at least monthly from scat samples of Cape fur seals Arctocephalus pusillus are used to show that shallow-water hake Merluccius capensis from the northern Benguela develop three translucent zones in their first 1·5 years of life. The novel sampling approach provided otoliths that belonged to four M. capensis cohorts of approximate known age (hatched in 1996, 1998, 2002 and 2005), allowing age verification. Following spawning in austral winter, translucent zones consistently formed first in summer and autumn (T1), then in winter and spring (T2) and again in summer and autumn (T3), with no difference in appearance of the zones (biannuli) for the four cohorts considered. The second translucent zone is usually the first true annulus (year mark). It forms during July to September in fish of 15-20 cm total length (LT ). Formation of the translucent zones appears to be determined by fish length or age, rather than by exogenous cues. It is suggested that length measurements should be used to help determine the first age group; fish with a translucent zone marked at otolith lengths >7·5 mm should be termed 1 year-old fish. Ages of M. capensis used in previous stock assessment models have been overestimated. Biannuli are an unusual occurrence in fish otoliths in general, but have been observed in other Merluccius species. PMID:25990746

  14. Modeling the Orbital Sampling Effect of Extrasolar Moons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heller, René; Hippke, Michael; Jackson, Brian

    2016-04-01

    The orbital sampling effect (OSE) appears in phase-folded transit light curves of extrasolar planets with moons. Analytical OSE models have hitherto neglected stellar limb darkening and non-zero transit impact parameters and assumed that the moon is on a circular, co-planar orbit around the planet. Here, we present an analytical OSE model for eccentric moon orbits, which we implement in a numerical simulator with stellar limb darkening that allows for arbitrary transit impact parameters. We also describe and publicly release a fully numerical OSE simulator (PyOSE) that can model arbitrary inclinations of the transiting moon orbit. Both our analytical solution for the OSE and PyOSE can be used to search for exomoons in long-term stellar light curves such as those by Kepler and the upcoming PLATO mission. Our updated OSE model offers an independent method for the verification of possible future exomoon claims via transit timing variations and transit duration variations. Photometrically quiet K and M dwarf stars are particularly promising targets for an exomoon discovery using the OSE.

  15. Lack of age-related increase in average glycemia in a non-Westernized sample of rural Yucatec Maya females.

    PubMed

    McLorg, Penelope A

    2005-01-01

    Age-related decline in glucose processing and the associated progressively higher circulating glucose levels are considered well-established biological aging phenomena. However, their occurrence in non-Westernized populations characterized by less mechanization and dietary processing has not been well-studied. This research extends evaluation of lifestyle conditions of diet and physical activity beyond those of Westernized areas and examines aging patterns in blood glucose among rural Yucatec Maya. The purpose is to investigate whether deteriorating glucose processing is intrinsic to human aging, while controlling for body composition in a non-Westernized setting. Data were gathered from 60 nondiabetic Maya women, 40-85 years of age, living in 16 rural villages around Merida, Yucatan. Information regarding personal history, diet, and physical activity was collected through interviews. Body composition was assessed through anthropometric and derived indicators of body size, fat distribution, body mass index, intra-abdominal fat, and total fat and fat-free masses. Glycemia was measured through microvenous samples analyzed for glycated hemoglobin (HbA(1c)) and fructosamine, to demonstrate average circulating glucose under customary living conditions. As indicated by glycation, average glycemia is not higher in older Maya females (age group F for HbA(1c) = 0.88, P > 0.05; age group F for fructosamine = 0.38, P > 0.05). Further, correlations between age and HbA(1c) (r = -0.13, P > 0.05) and fructosamine (r = -0.10, P > 0.05) are negative and not significant. The absence of significant, positive age associations with HbA(1c) and fructosamine persists when effects of body composition are taken into account. Thus, decline in glucose regulation does not appear to be a feature of aging in this non-Westernized sample, suggesting that age-related deterioration in glucose processing is not universal among human populations. Results suggest that relationships of age with

  16. Nothobranchius furzeri: A Model for Aging Research and More.

    PubMed

    Platzer, Matthias; Englert, Christoph

    2016-09-01

    The short-lived killifish Nothobranchius furzeri inhabits ephemeral ponds in southeastern Africa and is characterized by rapid growth and early sexual maturation. With respect to the molecular, cellular, and integrative traits of aging, N. furzeri shows significant similarities to mammals, including humans. Recently, reference sequences for the N. furzeri genome have been published. Also, methods for transgenesis and genomic engineering have been established. In this review we discuss why the killifish is a valuable model for aging research and what we have learned from the genome sequence. The respective insights are not limited to the biology of aging but are also relevant for developmental biology and the evolution of sex determination. PMID:27427533

  17. Eating Problems at Age 6 Years in a Whole Population Sample of Extremely Preterm Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Samara, Muthanna; Johnson, Samantha; Lamberts, Koen; Marlow, Neil; Wolke, Dieter

    2010-01-01

    Aim: The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of eating problems and their association with neurological and behavioural disabilities and growth among children born extremely preterm (EPC) at age 6 years. Method: A standard questionnaire about eating was completed by parents of 223 children (125 males [56.1%], 98 females [43.9%])…

  18. Maternal Age and Depressive Symptoms in a Low-Income Sample

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eshbaugh, Elaine M.

    2008-01-01

    In this study, depressive symptoms of 2,011 European-American, African-American, and Latina low-income mothers at approximately 14 months after birth of the child were examined. Maternal age was used as a predictor of depressive symptoms. Overall, 31.9% of mothers were classified as depressed using the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression…

  19. Transferable Skills Representations in a Portuguese College Sample: Gender, Age, Adaptability and Vocational Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rocha, Magda

    2012-01-01

    The departing point of this study is the theoretical framework of "Making the Match project" (Evers and Rush in Management Learning 27:275-299, 1996) about how to develop a common language among stakeholders regarding transferable skills. Thus, the paper examines the impact of demographic variables (age and gender) and developmental dimensions…

  20. Impact of aging mechanism on model simulated carbonaceous aerosols

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Y.; Wu, S.; Dubey, M.K.; French, N. H. F.

    2013-01-01

    Carbonaceous aerosols including organic carbon and black carbon have significant implications for both climate and air quality. In the current global climate or chemical transport models, a fixed hydrophobic-to-hydrophilic conversion lifetime for carbonaceous aerosol (τ) is generally assumed, which is usually around one day. We have implemented a new detailed aging scheme for carbonaceous aerosols in a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to account for both the chemical oxidation and the physical condensation-coagulation effects, where τ is affected by local atmospheric environment including atmospheric concentrations of water vapor, ozone, hydroxyl radical and sulfuric acid. The updated τ exhibits large spatial and temporal variations with the global average (up to 11 km altitude) calculated to be 2.6 days. The chemical aging effects are found to be strongest over the tropical regions driven by the low ozone concentrations and high humidity there. The τ resulted from chemical aging generally decreases with altitude due to increases in ozone concentration and decreases in humidity. The condensation-coagulation effects are found to be most important for the high-latitude areas, in particular the polar regions, where the τ values are calculated to be up to 15 days. When both the chemical aging and condensation-coagulation effects are considered, the total atmospheric burdens and global average lifetimes of BC, black carbon, (OC, organic carbon) are calculated to increase by 9% (3%) compared to the control simulation, with considerable enhancements of BC and OC concentrations in the Southern Hemisphere. Model evaluations against data from multiple datasets show that the updated aging scheme improves model simulations of carbonaceous aerosols for some regions, especially for the remote areas in the Northern Hemisphere. The improvement helps explain the persistent low model bias for carbonaceous aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere reported in literature. Further

  1. Geophysical Age Dating of Seamounts using Dense Core Flexure Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hwang, Gyuha; Kim, Seung-Sep

    2016-04-01

    Lithospheric flexure of oceanic plate is thermo-mechanical response of an elastic plate to the given volcanic construct (e.g., seamounts and ocean islands). If the shape and mass of such volcanic loads are known, the flexural response is governed by the thickness of elastic plate, Te. As the age of oceanic plate increases, the elastic thickness of oceanic lithosphere becomes thicker. Thus, we can relate Te with the age of plate at the time of loading. To estimate the amount of the driving force due to seamounts on elastic plate, one needs to approximate their density structure. The most common choice is uniform density model, which utilizes constant density value for a seamount. This approach simplifies computational processes for gravity prediction and error estimates. However, the uniform density model tends to overestimate the total mass of the seamount and hence produces more positive gravitational contributions from the load. Minimization of gravity misfits using uniform density, therefore, favors thinner Te in order to increase negative contributions from the lithospheric flexure, which can compensate for the excessive positives from the seamount. An alternative approach is dense core model, which approximate the heterogeneity nature of seamount density as three bodies of infill sediment, edifice, and dense core. In this study, we apply the dense core model to the Louisville Seamount Chain for constraining flexural deformation. We compare Te estimates with the loading time of the examined seamounts to redefine empirical geophysical age dating of seamounts.

  2. Relations between Executive Function and Academic Achievement from Ages 5 to 17 in a Large, Representative National Sample

    PubMed Central

    Best, John R.; Miller, Patricia H.; Naglieri, Jack A.

    2011-01-01

    This study examined age-related changes in complex executive function (EF) in a large, representative sample (N = 2,036) aged 5 to 17 using the Cognitive Assessment System (CAS; Naglieri & Das, 1997a). Relations between complex EF and academic achievement were examined on a sub-sample (N = 1,395) given the Woodcock-Johnson Tests of Achievement–Revised (Woodcock & Johnson, 1989). Performance on the three complex EF tasks improved until at least age 15, although improvement slowed with increasing age and varied some across tasks. Moreover, the different developmental patterns in the correlations between completion time and accuracy provide clues to developmental processes. Examination of individual achievement subtests clarified the specific aspects of academic performance most related to complex EF. Finally, the correlation between complex EF and academic achievement varied across ages, but the developmental pattern of the strength of these correlations was remarkably similar for overall math and reading achievement, suggesting a domain-general relation between complex EF and academic achievement. PMID:21845021

  3. The revised Temperament and Character Inventory: normative data by sex and age from a Spanish normal randomized sample

    PubMed Central

    Labad, Javier; Martorell, Lourdes; Gaviria, Ana; Bayón, Carmen; Vilella, Elisabet; Cloninger, C. Robert

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. The psychometric properties regarding sex and age for the revised version of the Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI-R) and its derived short version, the Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI-140), were evaluated with a randomized sample from the community. Methods. A randomized sample of 367 normal adult subjects from a Spanish municipality, who were representative of the general population based on sex and age, participated in the current study. Descriptive statistics and internal consistency according to α coefficient were obtained for all of the dimensions and facets. T-tests and univariate analyses of variance, followed by Bonferroni tests, were conducted to compare the distributions of the TCI-R dimension scores by age and sex. Results. On both the TCI-R and TCI-140, women had higher scores for Harm Avoidance, Reward Dependence and Cooperativeness than men, whereas men had higher scores for Persistence. Age correlated negatively with Novelty Seeking, Reward Dependence and Cooperativeness and positively with Harm Avoidance and Self-transcendence. Young subjects between 18 and 35 years had higher scores than older subjects in NS and RD. Subjects between 51 and 77 years scored higher in both HA and ST. The alphas for the dimensions were between 0.74 and 0.87 for the TCI-R and between 0.63 and 0.83 for the TCI-140. Conclusion. Results, which were obtained with a randomized sample, suggest that there are specific distributions of personality traits by sex and age. Overall, both the TCI-R and the abbreviated TCI-140 were reliable in the ‘good-to-excellent’ range. A strength of the current study is the representativeness of the sample. PMID:26713237

  4. Mechanical Regulation of Cardiac Aging in Model Systems.

    PubMed

    Sessions, Ayla O; Engler, Adam J

    2016-05-13

    Unlike diet and exercise, which individuals can modulate according to their lifestyle, aging is unavoidable. With normal or healthy aging, the heart undergoes extensive vascular, cellular, and interstitial molecular changes that result in stiffer less compliant hearts that experience a general decline in organ function. Although these molecular changes deemed cardiac remodeling were once thought to be concomitant with advanced cardiovascular disease, they can be found in patients without manifestation of clinical disease. It is now mostly acknowledged that these age-related mechanical changes confer vulnerability of the heart to cardiovascular stresses associated with disease, such as hypertension and atherosclerosis. However, recent studies have aimed at differentiating the initial compensatory changes that occur within the heart with age to maintain contractile function from the maladaptive responses associated with disease. This work has identified new targets to improve cardiac function during aging. Spanning invertebrate to vertebrate models, we use this review to delineate some hallmarks of physiological versus pathological remodeling that occur in the cardiomyocyte and its microenvironment, focusing especially on the mechanical changes that occur within the sarcomere, intercalated disc, costamere, and extracellular matrix. PMID:27174949

  5. Spectral age modelling of the `Sausage' cluster radio relic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stroe, Andra; Harwood, Jeremy J.; Hardcastle, Martin J.; Röttgering, Huub J. A.

    2014-12-01

    CIZA J2242.8+5301 is a post-core passage, binary merging cluster that hosts a large, thin, arc-like radio relic, nicknamed the `Sausage', tracing a relatively strong shock front. We perform spatially resolved spectral fitting to the available radio data for this radio relic, using a variety of spectral ageing models, with the aim of finding a consistent set of parameters for the shock and radio plasma. We determine an injection index of 0.77^{+0.03}_{-0.02} for the relic plasma, significantly steeper than was found before. Standard particle acceleration at the shock front implies a Mach number M=2.90^{+0.10}_{-0.13}, which now matches X-ray measurements. The shock advance speed is vshock ≈ 2500 km s-1, which places the core passage of the two subclusters 0.6-0.8 Gyr ago. We find a systematic spectral age increase from 0 at the northern side of the relic up to ˜60 Myr at ˜145 kpc into the downstream area, assuming a 0.6 nT magnetic field. Under the assumption of freely ageing electrons after acceleration by the `Sausage' shock, the spectral ages are hard to reconcile with the shock speed derived from X-ray and radio observations. Re-acceleration or unusually efficient transport of particle in the downstream area and line-of-sight mixing could help explain the systematically low spectral ages.

  6. The role of U-Pb ages of detrital zircons in sedimentology-An alarming case study for the impact of sampling for provenance interpretation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zimmermann, Udo; Andersen, Tom; Madland, Merete Vadla; Larsen, Ingrid Skipenes

    2015-05-01

    U-Pb ages on detrital zircons are often utilised for stratigraphic and paleogeographic interpretations and correlation. Sampling is carried out in such a way that the samples are representative for a formation, and then used for provenance identification and/or defining a maximum time limit for deposition. Is it possible that sedimentological factors and sampling would influence the results? This is perhaps an obvious consideration for sedimentologists, but is in many studies treated as a secondary concern or even not mentioned. U-Pb LA-ICP-MS analysis on detrital zircons from two samples of Cambrian age (Herrería Formation, Cantabrian Mountains, Spain) revealed very different provenance signatures at the base and top of the formation. Both successions have been deposited in a shallow marine environment, are lithologically comparable (arenites, feldspathic arenites, siltstone, shales intercalated with marls and dolomite) and differ only slightly in age. Nearly 80% of all detrital zircons (n = 152; discordance ≤ 10) at the base of the formation are younger than 650 Ma. Detrital zircons older than 1.0 Ga amount to only 10% (n = 16) of the entire population. In contrast, only around 32% of all detrital zircons from the top of the formation (n = 123; discordance ≤ 10) are younger than 650 Ma while more than 16% are Archean and nearly 50% Paleoproterozoic. This implies a fundamental change in provenance, with a shift from Neoproterozoic to Paleoproterozoic (1.9-2.2 Ga) aged sediment sources. Consequently, changes of sediment transport systems have had an extremely profound impact on the provenance of the formation. Therefore, when correlating sedimentary rocks, interpreting source rocks and modelling paleogeography from U-Pb ages of detrital zircons, sedimentological parameters are possibly paramount and these need to be at least discussed before any interpretation is made.

  7. Influence of ageing on Raman spectra and the conductivity of monolayer graphene samples irradiated by heavy and light ions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butenko, A.; Zion, E.; Kaganovskii, Yu.; Wolfson, L.; Richter, V.; Sharoni, A.; Kogan, E.; Kaveh, M.; Shlimak, I.

    2016-07-01

    The influence of long-term ageing (about one year) on the Raman scattering (RS) spectra and the temperature dependence of conductivity has been studied in two series of monolayer graphene samples irradiated by different doses of C+ and Xe+ ions. It is shown that the main result of ageing consists of changes in the intensity and position of D- and G- and 2D-lines in RS spectra and in an increase of the conductivity. The observed effects are explained in terms of an increase of the radius of the "activated" area around structural defects.

  8. Z-estimation and stratified samples: application to survival models.

    PubMed

    Breslow, Norman E; Hu, Jie; Wellner, Jon A

    2015-10-01

    The infinite dimensional Z-estimation theorem offers a systematic approach to joint estimation of both Euclidean and non-Euclidean parameters in probability models for data. It is easily adapted for stratified sampling designs. This is important in applications to censored survival data because the inverse probability weights that modify the standard estimating equations often depend on the entire follow-up history. Since the weights are not predictable, they complicate the usual theory based on martingales. This paper considers joint estimation of regression coefficients and baseline hazard functions in the Cox proportional and Lin-Ying additive hazards models. Weighted likelihood equations are used for the former and weighted estimating equations for the latter. Regression coefficients and baseline hazards may be combined to estimate individual survival probabilities. Efficiency is improved by calibrating or estimating the weights using information available for all subjects. Although inefficient in comparison with likelihood inference for incomplete data, which is often difficult to implement, the approach provides consistent estimates of desired population parameters even under model misspecification.

  9. Advanced flight design systems subsystem performance models. Sample model: Environmental analysis routine library

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parker, K. C.; Torian, J. G.

    1980-01-01

    A sample environmental control and life support model performance analysis using the environmental analysis routines library is presented. An example of a complete model set up and execution is provided. The particular model was synthesized to utilize all of the component performance routines and most of the program options.

  10. Mesoscopic model of temporal and spatial heterogeneity in aging colloids.

    PubMed

    Becker, Nikolaj; Sibani, Paolo; Boettcher, Stefan; Vivek, Skanda

    2014-12-17

    We develop a simple and effective description of the dynamics of dense hard sphere colloids in the aging regime deep in the glassy phase. Our description complements the many efforts to understand the onset of jamming in low density colloids, whose dynamics is still time-homogeneous. Based on a small set of principles, our model provides emergent dynamic heterogeneity, reproduces the known results for dense hard sphere colloids and makes detailed, experimentally-testable predictions for canonical observables in glassy dynamics. In particular, we reproduce the shape of the intermediate scattering function and particle mean-square displacements for jammed colloidal systems, and we predict a growth for the peak of the χ(4) mobility correlation function that is logarithmic in waiting-time. At the same time, our model suggests a novel unified description for the irreversible aging dynamics of structural and quenched glasses based on the dynamical properties of growing clusters of highly correlated degrees of freedom.

  11. Predicting mortality from burns: the need for age-group specific models.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Sandra L; Lawless, MaryBeth; Curri, Terese; Sen, Soman; Greenhalgh, David G; Palmieri, Tina L

    2014-09-01

    Traditional burn mortality models are derived using all age groups. We hypothesized that age variably impacts mortality after burn and that age-specific models for children, adults, and seniors will more accurately predict mortality than an all-ages model. We audited data from the American Burn Association (ABA) National Burn Repository (NBR) from 2000 to 2009 and used mixed effect logistic regression models to assess the influence of age, total body surface area (TBSA) burn, and inhalation injury on mortality. Mortality models were constructed for all ages and age-specific models: children (<18 years), adults (18-60 years), and seniors (>60 years). Model performance was assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Main effect and two-way interactions were used to construct age-group specific mortality models. Each age-specific model was compared to the All Ages model. Of 286,293 records 100,051 had complete data. Overall mortality was 4% but varied by age (17% seniors, <1% children). Age, TBSA, and inhalation injury were significant mortality predictors for all models (p<0.05). Differences in predicted mortality between the All Ages model and the age-specific models occurred in children and seniors. In the age-specific pediatric model, predicted mortality decreased with age; inhalation injury had greater effect on mortality than in the All Ages model. In the senior model mortality increased with age. Seniors had greater increase in mortality per 1% increment in burn size and 1 year increase in age than other ages. The predicted mortality in seniors using the senior-specific model was higher than in the All Ages model. "One size fits all" models for predicting burn outcomes do not accurately reflect the outcomes for seniors and children. Age-specific models for children and seniors may be advisable. PMID:24846014

  12. Predicting Mortality from Burn Injuries: The need for age-group specific models

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Sandra L.; Lawless, MaryBeth; Curri, Terese; Sen, Soman; Greenhalgh, David G.; Palmieri, Tina L.

    2014-01-01

    Traditional burn mortality models are derived using all age groups. We hypothesized that age variably impacts mortality after burn and that age-specific models for children, adults, and seniors will more accurately predict mortality than an all-ages model. We audited data from the American Burn Association (ABA) National Burn Repository (NBR) from 2000-2009 and used mixed effect logistic regression models to assess the influence of age, total body surface area (TBSA) burn, and inhalation injury on mortality. Mortality models were constructed for all ages and age-specific models: children (<18 years), adults (18-60 years), and seniors (>60 years). Model performance was assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Main effect and two-way interactions were used to construct age-group specific mortality models. Each age-specific model was compared to the All Ages model. Of 286,293 records 100,051 had complete data. Overall mortality was 4% but varied by age (17% seniors, <1% children). Age, TBSA, and inhalation injury were significant mortality predictors for all models (p<0.05). Differences in predicted mortality between the All Ages model and the age-specific models occurred in children and seniors. In the age-specific pediatric model, predicted mortality decreased with age; inhalation injury had greater effect on mortality than in the All Ages model. In the senior model mortality increased with age. Seniors had greater increase in mortality per 1% increment in burn size and 1 year increase in age than other ages. The predicted mortality in seniors using the senior-specific model was higher than in the All Ages model. “One size fits all” models for predicting burn outcomes do not accurately reflect the outcomes for seniors and children. Age-specific models for children and seniors may be advisable. PMID:24846014

  13. Exposure ages and neutron capture record in lunar samples from Fra Mauro.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lugmair, G. W.; Marti, K.

    1972-01-01

    Cosmic-ray exposure ages of Apollo 14 rocks and rock fragments obtained by the Kr81-Kr83 method range from 27 to 700 m.y. Rock 14321, collected near the Cone crater rim, is one of the many approximately 27 m.y. old ejecta which were reported at the Third Lunar Science Conference. All the other rocks have considerably higher exposure ages. Isotopic anomalies from neutron capture in gadolinium, bromine, and barium are used to obtain information on the lunar neutron spectrum at various depths below the lunar surface. The flux ratio of resonance and slow (less than 0.3 eV) neutrons is found to be nearly constant in the topmost approximately 100 g/sq cm.

  14. Rubidium-strontium and potassium-argon age of lunar sample 15555.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murthy, V. R.; Evensen, N. M.; Jahn, B. M.; Coscio, M. R., Jr.

    1972-01-01

    The lunar mare basalt 15555 from the edge of Hadley Rille has been dated at 3.3 b.y. by both rubidium-strontium and potassium-argon techniques. Age and trace element abundances closely resemble those of the Apollo 12 mare basalts. Data from lunar basalts obtained thus far indicate that they cannot be derived by simple fractionation from a homogeneous source.

  15. ACTINIDE REMOVAL PROCESS SAMPLE ANALYSIS, CHEMICAL MODELING, AND FILTRATION EVALUATION

    SciTech Connect

    Martino, C.; Herman, D.; Pike, J.; Peters, T.

    2014-06-05

    Filtration within the Actinide Removal Process (ARP) currently limits the throughput in interim salt processing at the Savannah River Site. In this process, batches of salt solution with Monosodium Titanate (MST) sorbent are concentrated by crossflow filtration. The filtrate is subsequently processed to remove cesium in the Modular Caustic Side Solvent Extraction Unit (MCU) followed by disposal in saltstone grout. The concentrated MST slurry is washed and sent to the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) for vitrification. During recent ARP processing, there has been a degradation of filter performance manifested as the inability to maintain high filtrate flux throughout a multi-batch cycle. The objectives of this effort were to characterize the feed streams, to determine if solids (in addition to MST) are precipitating and causing the degraded performance of the filters, and to assess the particle size and rheological data to address potential filtration impacts. Equilibrium modelling with OLI Analyzer{sup TM} and OLI ESP{sup TM} was performed to determine chemical components at risk of precipitation and to simulate the ARP process. The performance of ARP filtration was evaluated to review potential causes of the observed filter behavior. Task activities for this study included extensive physical and chemical analysis of samples from the Late Wash Pump Tank (LWPT) and the Late Wash Hold Tank (LWHT) within ARP as well as samples of the tank farm feed from Tank 49H. The samples from the LWPT and LWHT were obtained from several stages of processing of Salt Batch 6D, Cycle 6, Batch 16.

  16. Age at First Birth and Fathers' Subsequent Health: Evidence From Sibling and Twin Models

    PubMed Central

    Pudrovska, Tetyana; Carr, Deborah

    2010-01-01

    Using a sample of 540 siblings and twins from the National Survey of Midlife Development in the United States, this study examines the relationship between the age at which men become biological fathers and their subsequent health. The analysis includes both between-family models that treat brothers as independent observations and within-family models that account for unobserved genetic and early-life environmental endowments shared by brothers within families. Findings indicate that age at first birth has a positive, linear effect on men's health, and this relationship is not explained by the confounding influences of unobserved early-life characteristics. However, the effect of age at first birth on fathers' health is explained by men's socioeconomic and family statuses. Whereas most research linking birth timing to specific diseases focuses narrowly on biological mechanisms among mothers, this study demonstrates the importance of reproductive decisions for men's health and well-being. PMID:19477723

  17. Defining Predictive Probability Functions for Species Sampling Models

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Jaeyong; Quintana, Fernando A.; Müller, Peter; Trippa, Lorenzo

    2013-01-01

    We review the class of species sampling models (SSM). In particular, we investigate the relation between the exchangeable partition probability function (EPPF) and the predictive probability function (PPF). It is straightforward to define a PPF from an EPPF, but the converse is not necessarily true. In this paper we introduce the notion of putative PPFs and show novel conditions for a putative PPF to define an EPPF. We show that all possible PPFs in a certain class have to define (unnormalized) probabilities for cluster membership that are linear in cluster size. We give a new necessary and sufficient condition for arbitrary putative PPFs to define an EPPF. Finally, we show posterior inference for a large class of SSMs with a PPF that is not linear in cluster size and discuss a numerical method to derive its PPF. PMID:24368874

  18. Distribution of epiphytic bacteria on olive leaves and the influence of leaf age and sampling time.

    PubMed

    Ercolani, G L

    1991-12-01

    Mesophilic heterotrophic, aerobic or facultatively anaerobic bacteria that grow on yeast tryptone glucose extract agar were isolated from the surface of olive leaves of 3 or 4 different ages in January, April, July, and October from 1984 to 1989. Unweighted average linkage cluster analysis on either the Jaccard coefficient or the simple matching coefficient recovered 1,701 representative strains in 32 phena defined at the 70% and 80% similarity level, respectively. Of these, 25 were identified to genus or lower level. From the identity of the representative strains, the frequency of occurrence among the phylloplane bacteria over the 6-year period was estimated at 51% forPseudomonas syringae, followed byXanthomonas campestris (6.7%),Erwinia herbicola (6%),Acetobacter aceti (4.7%),Gluconobacter oxydans (4.3%),Pseudomonas fluorescens (3.9%),Bacillus megaterium (3.8%),Leuconostoc mesenteroides subsp.dextranicum (3.1%),Lactobacillus plantarum (2.8%),Curtobacterium plantarum (2.2%),Micrococcus luteus (2.2%),Arthrobacter globiformis (1.4%),Klebsiella planticola (1.2%),Streptococcus faecium (1.2%),Clavibacter sp. (0.98%),Micrococcus sp. (0.82%),Serratia marcescens (0.81%),Bacillus subtilis (0.57%),Cellulomonas flavigena (0.4%),Erwinia sp. (0.37%),Zymomonas mobilis (0.3%),Bacillus sp. (0.29%),Alcaligenes faecalis (0.27%),Erwinia carotovora (0.08%), andPseudomonas aeruginosa (0.04%). Bacterial communities on leaves of a given age at a given time during any one year displayed a very similar structure but differed significantly from those on the leaves of the same age at a different time or on the leaves of a different age at any time during any one year. Communities on the leaves of a given age at a given time of the year were invariably dominated by one or another of only 9 taxa, which accounted for 22 to 98.5% of the isolates from those leaves. The communities on 10- and 13-month-old leaves were invariably made up of fewer taxa than those on younger leaves at the same time

  19. Integrated Modeling of Spacecraft Touch-and-Go Sampling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quadrelli, Marco

    2009-01-01

    An integrated modeling tool has been developed to include multi-body dynamics, orbital dynamics, and touch-and-go dynamics for spacecraft covering three types of end-effectors: a sticky pad, a brush-wheel sampler, and a pellet gun. Several multi-body models of a free-flying spacecraft with a multi-link manipulator driving these end-effectors have been tested with typical contact conditions arising when the manipulator arm is to sample the surface of an asteroidal body. The test data have been infused directly into the dynamics formulation including such information as the mass collected as a function of end-effector longitudinal speed for the brush-wheel and sticky-pad samplers, and the mass collected as a function of projectile speed for the pellet gun sampler. These data represent the realistic behavior of the end effector while in contact with a surface, and represent a low-order model of more complex contact conditions that otherwise would have to be simulated. Numerical results demonstrate the adequacy of these multibody models for spacecraft and manipulator- arm control design. The work contributes to the development of a touch-and-go testbed for small body exploration, denoted as the GREX Testbed (GN&C for Rendezvous-based EXploration). The GREX testbed addresses the key issues involved in landing on an asteroidal body or comet; namely, a complex, low-gravity field; partially known terrain properties; possible comet outgassing; dust ejection; and navigating to a safe and scientifically desirable zone.

  20. Sensitivity and Specificity of Depression Questionnaires in a College-Age Sample

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shean, Glenn; Baldwin, Gretchen

    2008-01-01

    The authors evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II; A. T. Beck, R. A. Steer, & G. K. Brown, 1996) and Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale (CESD; L. S. Radloff, 1977) questionnaires for a college-student sample. Results indicate that the BDI-II and CES-D evidenced satisfactory levels of…

  1. Accelerated ageing: from mechanism to therapy through animal models.

    PubMed

    Osorio, Fernando G; Obaya, Alvaro J; López-Otín, Carlos; Freije, José M P

    2009-02-01

    Ageing research benefits from the study of accelerated ageing syndromes such as Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome (HGPS), characterized by the early appearance of symptoms normally associated with advanced age. Most HGPS cases are caused by a mutation in the gene LMNA, which leads to the synthesis of a truncated precursor of lamin A known as progerin that lacks the target sequence for the metallopotease FACE-1/ZMPSTE24 and remains constitutively farnesylated. The use of Face-1/Zmpste24-deficient mice allowed us to demonstrate that accumulation of farnesylated prelamin A causes severe abnormalities of the nuclear envelope, hyper-activation of p53 signalling, cellular senescence, stem cell dysfunction and the development of a progeroid phenotype. The reduction of prenylated prelamin A levels in genetically modified mice leads to a complete reversal of the progeroid phenotype, suggesting that inhibition of protein farnesylation could represent a therapeutic option for the treatment of progeria. However, we found that both prelamin A and its truncated form progerin can undergo either farnesylation or geranylgeranylation, revealing the need of targeting both activities for an efficient treatment of HGPS. Using Face-1/Zmpste24-deficient mice as model, we found that a combination of statins and aminobisphosphonates inhibits both types of modifications of prelamin A and progerin, improves the ageing-like symptoms of these mice and extends substantially their longevity, opening a new therapeutic possibility for human progeroid syndromes associated with nuclear-envelope defects. We discuss here the use of this and other animal models to investigate the molecular mechanisms underlying accelerated ageing and to test strategies for its treatment.

  2. Monitoring, Modeling, and Diagnosis of Alkali-Silica Reaction in Small Concrete Samples

    SciTech Connect

    Agarwal, Vivek; Cai, Guowei; Gribok, Andrei V.; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2015-09-01

    Assessment and management of aging concrete structures in nuclear power plants require a more systematic approach than simple reliance on existing code margins of safety. Structural health monitoring of concrete structures aims to understand the current health condition of a structure based on heterogeneous measurements to produce high-confidence actionable information regarding structural integrity that supports operational and maintenance decisions. This report describes alkali-silica reaction (ASR) degradation mechanisms and factors influencing the ASR. A fully coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical model developed by Saouma and Perotti by taking into consideration the effects of stress on the reaction kinetics and anisotropic volumetric expansion is presented in this report. This model is implemented in the GRIZZLY code based on the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment. The implemented model in the GRIZZLY code is randomly used to initiate ASR in a 2D and 3D lattice to study the percolation aspects of concrete. The percolation aspects help determine the transport properties of the material and therefore the durability and service life of concrete. This report summarizes the effort to develop small-size concrete samples with embedded glass to mimic ASR. The concrete samples were treated in water and sodium hydroxide solution at elevated temperature to study how ingress of sodium ions and hydroxide ions at elevated temperature impacts concrete samples embedded with glass. Thermal camera was used to monitor the changes in the concrete sample and results are summarized.

  3. Openness, neuroticism, conscientiousness, and family health and aging concerns interact in the prediction of health-related Internet searches in a representative U.S. sample.

    PubMed

    Bogg, Tim; Vo, Phuong T

    2014-01-01

    Recent estimates suggest 60% of the U.S. adult population uses the Internet to find health-related information. The goal of the present study was to model health-related Internet searches as a function of an interdependent system of personality adaptation in the context of recent health and aging-related concerns. Assessments of background factors, Big Five personality traits, past-month health and aging-related concerns, and the frequency of past-month health-related Internet searches (via Google, Yahoo, AOL, Bing, or some other search engine) were obtained from a representative U.S. sample (N = 1,015). Controlling for background factors, regression analyses showed more frequent health-related Internet searches were predicted by a drive for exploration and investigation (high openness), as well as alarm sensitivity (high openness and high neuroticism) and an anticipatory inclination (high openness and high conscientiousness) in the context of recent problems with aging parents and recent health concerns for a family member. Consistent with interdependent models of personality adaptation, as well as prior evidence for "surrogate" health-related Internet searches, the results suggest a personality process model of search behavior that is partially dependent upon dispositional levels of exploration, emotional stability, control, and health and aging concerns for family members. PMID:24808880

  4. Estimating the age of Calliphora vicina eggs (Diptera: Calliphoridae): determination of embryonic morphological landmarks and preservation of egg samples.

    PubMed

    Martín-Vega, Daniel; Hall, Martin J R

    2016-05-01

    Blow fly eggs may sometimes be the only entomological evidence recovered in a forensic case, especially in cooler weather when hatching might take several days: hence, a method for estimating their age is greatly needed. However, developmental data on blow fly eggs are mainly limited to records of the time to larval hatching. The current paper describes the morphological changes occurring during embryogenesis of the blow fly Calliphora vicina Robineau-Desvoidy and their timing in relation to temperature, in order to determine those characters which can be used for simple egg age estimation using light microscopy. At 7.3 and 25 °C, 15 easily visualised morphological landmarks were determined in C. vicina living embryos, allowing for their age estimation with a resolution of 10-20% of total egg developmental time. The observed age intervals were compared to the embryonic stages described for the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster Meigen, which are used as reference data in multiple developmental studies. Moreover, current guidelines for preservation of egg samples, which recommend the placement of living eggs directly into 80% ethanol, were tested against the hot water killing (HWK) method prior to preservation in 80% ethanol, recommended for larval and pupal specimens. Direct placement of eggs into 80% ethanol caused marked decomposition of samples, and no morphological landmarks were discernible. On the other hand, HWK fixation prior to preservation in 80% ethanol enabled visualisation of 11 of the 15 age-specific morphological landmarks that were discernible in living embryos. Therefore, HWK fixation prior to preservation in 80% ethanol is recommended for egg samples, thus unifying the protocols for collecting entomological evidence.

  5. Rb-Sr age of a Luna 16 basalt and the model age of lunar soils.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Papanastassiou, D. A.; Wasserburg, G. J.

    1972-01-01

    An internal isochron was determined on a small basalt fragment (sample B-1) returned from the Luna 16 mission, which yields an age of 3.42 plus or minus 0.8 b.y. and a low initial Sr87/Sr86 value. A comparison is made of the data from four lunar missions to mare sites which shows that the last period of major flooding of the mare basins is confined to a narrow time interval of only 0.55 b.y. The direct evidence of major lunar magmatic activity appears to be confined to the interval from 3.1 to 4.0 b.y. The Sr87/Sr86 values for all mare basalts are extremely primitive and lie in a rather narrow range. A diagram is given for initial Sr87/Sr86 as a function of time for all lunar rocks.

  6. Thermal Response Modeling System for a Mars Sample Return Vehicle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, Y.-K.; Miles, Frank S.; Arnold, Jim (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    A multi-dimensional, coupled thermal response modeling system for analysis of hypersonic entry vehicles is presented. The system consists of a high fidelity Navier-Stokes equation solver (GIANTS), a two-dimensional implicit thermal response, pyrolysis and ablation program (TITAN), and a commercial finite-element thermal and mechanical analysis code (MARC). The simulations performed by this integrated system include hypersonic flowfield, fluid and solid interaction, ablation, shape change, pyrolysis gas eneration and flow, and thermal response of heatshield and structure. The thermal response of the heatshield is simulated using TITAN, and that of the underlying structural is simulated using MARC. The ablating heatshield is treated as an outer boundary condition of the structure, and continuity conditions of temperature and heat flux are imposed at the interface between TITAN and MARC. Aerothermal environments with fluid and solid interaction are predicted by coupling TITAN and GIANTS through surface energy balance equations. With this integrated system, the aerothermal environments for an entry vehicle and the thermal response of the entire vehicle can be obtained simultaneously. Representative computations for a flat-faced arc-jet test model and a proposed Mars sample return capsule are presented and discussed.

  7. Thermal Response Modeling System for a Mars Sample Return Vehicle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, Y.-K.; Milos, F. S.

    2002-01-01

    A multi-dimensional, coupled thermal response modeling system for analysis of hypersonic entry vehicles is presented. The system consists of a high fidelity Navier-Stokes equation solver (GIANTS), a two-dimensional implicit thermal response, pyrolysis and ablation program (TITAN), and a commercial finite element thermal and mechanical analysis code (MARC). The simulations performed by this integrated system include hypersonic flowfield, fluid and solid interaction, ablation, shape change, pyrolysis gas generation and flow, and thermal response of heatshield and structure. The thermal response of the heatshield is simulated using TITAN, and that of the underlying structural is simulated using MARC. The ablating heatshield is treated as an outer boundary condition of the structure, and continuity conditions of temperature and heat flux are imposed at the interface between TITAN and MARC. Aerothermal environments with fluid and solid interaction are predicted by coupling TITAN and GIANTS through surface energy balance equations. With this integrated system, the aerothermal environments for an entry vehicle and the thermal response of the entire vehicle can be obtained simultaneously. Representative computations for a flat-faced arc-jet test model and a proposed Mars sample return capsule are presented and discussed.

  8. Age differences in alcohol drinking patterns among Norwegian and German hospital doctors – a study based on national samples

    PubMed Central

    Rosta, Judith; Aasland, Olaf G.

    2010-01-01

    Aims: To describe and discuss the alcohol drinking patterns of the younger generation of hospital doctors in Norway and Germany – respectively the abstainers, frequent drinkers, episodic heavy drinkers and hazardous drinkers. Methods: Data were collected in nationwide postal surveys among doctors in Norway (2000) and Germany (2006). A representative sample of 1898 German and 602 Norwegian hospital doctors aged 27–65 years were included in the analyses (N=2500). Alcohol drinking patterns were measured using the first three items of AUDIT in Norway and the AUDIT-C in Germany, scores of ≥5 (ranking from 0 to 12) indicating hazardous drinking. Episodic heavy drinking was defined by the intake of ≥60g of ethanol, on one occasion, at least once a week. Frequent drinkers were who drank alcoholic beverages at least twice a week. Abstainers were persons who drank no alcohol. The analyses were performed separately for age groups (27–44 years versus 45–65 years) and genders. Results: Compared to the age groups 45 to 65 years in the Norwegian and German samples, the younger age groups (27–44 years) tend to have higher rates of abstainers, higher rates of infrequent drinking of moderate amount of alcoholic drinks, lower rates of episodic heavy drinking and lower rates of hazardous drinking. Conclusion: The younger generation of hospital doctors in Norway and Germany showed tendencies to healthier drinking habits. Changes in professional life, and in the attitude towards alcohol consumption, may go some way towards explaining these findings. PMID:20200658

  9. Development of sampling efficiency and internal noise in motion detection and discrimination in school-aged children.

    PubMed

    Falkenberg, Helle K; Simpson, William A; Dutton, Gordon N

    2014-07-01

    The aim of this study was to use an equivalent noise paradigm to investigate the development and maturation of motion perception, and how the underlying limitations of sampling efficiency and internal noise effect motion detection and direction discrimination in school-aged children (5-14 years) and adults. Contrast energy thresholds of a 2c/deg sinusoidal grating drifting at 1.0 or 6.0 Hz were measured as a function of added dynamic noise in three tasks: detection of a drifting grating; detection of the sum of two oppositely drifting gratings and direction discrimination of oppositely drifting gratings. Compared to the ideal observer, in both children and adults, the performance for all tasks was limited by reduced sampling efficiency and internal noise. However, the thresholds for discrimination of motion direction and detection of moving gratings show very different developmental profiles. Motion direction discrimination continues to improve after the age of 14 years due to an increase in sampling efficiency that differs with speed. Motion detection and summation were already mature at the age of 5 years, and internal noise was the same for all tasks. These findings were confirmed in a 1-year follow-up study on a group of children from the initial study. The results support suggestions that the detection of a moving pattern and discriminating motion direction are processed by different systems that may develop at different rates.

  10. Modeling problem behaviors in a nationally representative sample of adolescents.

    PubMed

    O'Connor, Kate L; Dolphin, Louise; Fitzgerald, Amanda; Dooley, Barbara

    2016-07-01

    Research on multiple problem behaviors has focused on the concept of Problem Behavior Syndrome (PBS). Problem Behavior Theory (PBT) is a complex and comprehensive social-psychological framework designed to explain the development of a range of problem behaviors. This study examines the structure of PBS and the applicability of PBT in adolescents. Participants were 6062 adolescents; aged 12-19 (51.3% female) who took part in the My World Survey-Second Level (MWS-SL). Regarding PBS, Confirmatory Factor Analysis established that problem behaviors, such as alcohol and drug use loaded significantly onto a single, latent construct for males and females. Using Structural Equation Modeling, the PBT framework was found to be a good fit for males and females. Socio-demographic, perceived environment system and personality accounted for over 40% of the variance in problem behaviors for males and females. Our findings have important implications for understanding how differences in engaging in problem behaviors vary by gender. PMID:27161989

  11. Ovarian aging and menopause: current theories, hypotheses, and research models.

    PubMed

    Wu, Julie M; Zelinski, Mary B; Ingram, Donald K; Ottinger, Mary Ann

    2005-12-01

    Aging of the reproductive system has been studied in numerous vertebrate species. Although there are wide variations in reproductive strategies and hormone cycle components, many of the fundamental changes that occur during aging are similar. Evolutionary hypotheses attempt to explain why menopause occurs, whereas cellular hypotheses attempt to explain how it occurs. It is commonly believed that a disruption in the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis is responsible for the onset of menopause. Data exist to demonstrate that the first signs of menopause occur at the level of the brain or the ovary. Thus, finding an appropriate and representative animal model is especially important for the advancement of menopause research. In primates, there is a gradual decline in the function of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis ultimately resulting in irregularities in menstrual cycles and increasingly sporadic incidence of ovulation. Rodents also exhibit a progressive deterioration in HPG axis function; however, they also experience a period of constant estrus accompanied by intermittent ovulations, reduced progesterone levels, and elevated circulating estradiol levels. It is remarkable to observe that females of other classes also demonstrate deterioration in HPG axis function and ovarian failure. Comparisons of aging in various taxa provide insight into fundamental biological mechanisms of aging that could underlie reproductive decline.

  12. Age structured dynamical model for an endangered lizard Eulamprus leuraensis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Supriatna, A. K.; Rachmadani, Q.; Ilahi, F.; Anggriani, N.; Nuraini, N.

    2014-02-01

    The Blue Mountains Water Skink, Eulamprus leuraensis, is listed as an endangered species under the IUCN Red List. This lizard species has a typical characteristic of growth with a low fecundity. It is known that the offspring quality may decline with maternal age of the parents despite they can grow rapidly from neonatal size to adult size within two to three years. It is also believed that low adult survival rates and specialization on rare and fragmented type of habitat are the main cause leading to the endangered status of the lizard. A mathematical model with age structure for Eulamprus leuraensis, taking into account the variation of survival rate in each structure and the declining of offspring quality with respect to maternal age is considered here. Stable coexistence of non-trivial equilibriumis shown. It is also shown that an endangered status is due to combination oflow reproductive output and low rates of adult survival. Further, understanding the age structure within populations can facilitate efective management of the endangered species.

  13. Early detection of aging cartilage and osteoarthritis in mice and patient samples using atomic force microscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stolz, Martin; Gottardi, Riccardo; Raiteri, Roberto; Miot, Sylvie; Martin, Ivan; Imer, Raphaël; Staufer, Urs; Raducanu, Aurelia; Düggelin, Marcel; Baschong, Werner; Daniels, A. U.; Friederich, Niklaus F.; Aszodi, Attila; Aebi, Ueli

    2009-03-01

    The pathological changes in osteoarthritis-a degenerative joint disease prevalent among older people-start at the molecular scale and spread to the higher levels of the architecture of articular cartilage to cause progressive and irreversible structural and functional damage. At present, there are no treatments to cure or attenuate the degradation of cartilage. Early detection and the ability to monitor the progression of osteoarthritis are therefore important for developing effective therapies. Here, we show that indentation-type atomic force microscopy can monitor age-related morphological and biomechanical changes in the hips of normal and osteoarthritic mice. Early damage in the cartilage of osteoarthritic patients undergoing hip or knee replacements could similarly be detected using this method. Changes due to aging and osteoarthritis are clearly depicted at the nanometre scale well before morphological changes can be observed using current diagnostic methods. Indentation-type atomic force microscopy may potentially be developed into a minimally invasive arthroscopic tool to diagnose the early onset of osteoarthritis in situ.

  14. Self-Organization of Aging in a Modified Penna Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Gi Ok; Shim, Sugie

    The Penna model for biological aging is modified so that the fertility of each individual is determined by means of the number of activated mutations at that time. A new concept of "good" mutation, which makes an individual to mature enough to reproduce, is introduced. It is assumed that each individual can reproduce only during adulthood, which is determined by the number of activated mutations. The results of Monte Carlo calculations using the modified model show that the ranges of the reproductive age are broadened as time goes by, thus showing self-organization in the biological aging to the direction of the maximum self-conservation. In addition, the population, the survival rate, and the average life span were calculated and analyzed by changing the number of new mutations at birth. It is observed that the higher is the considered number of new mutations at birth, the shorter is the obtained average life span. The mortality functions are also calculated and they showed the exponential increase in adulthood, satisfying the Gompertz law.

  15. Age and growth of chub mackerel ( Xcomber japonicus) in the East China and Yellow Seas using sectioned otolith samples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Gang; Chen, Xinjun; Feng, Bo

    2008-11-01

    Although chub mackerel ( Scomber japonicus) is a primary pelagic fish species, we have only limited knowledge on its key life history processes. The present work studied the age and growth of chub mackerel in the East China and Yellow Seas. Age was determined by interpreting and counting growth rings on the sagitta otoliths of 252 adult fish caught by the Chinese commercial purse seine fleet during the period from November 2006 to January 2007 and 150 juveniles from bottom trawl surveys on the spawning ground in May 2006. The difference between the assumed birth date of 1st April and date of capture was used to adjust the age determined from counting the number of complete translucent rings. The parameters of three commonly used growth models, the von Bertalanffy, Logistic and Gompertz models, were estimated using the maximum likelihood method. Based on the Akaike Information Criterion ( AIC), the von Bertalanffy growth model was found to be the most appropriate model. The size-at-age and size-at-maturity values were also found to decrease greatly compared with the results achieved in the 1950s, which was caused by heavy exploitation over the last few decades.

  16. Multiple endemic states in age-structured SIR epidemic models.

    PubMed

    Franceschetti, Andrea; Pugliese, Andrea; Breda, Dmitri

    2012-07-01

    SIR age-structured models are very often used as a basic model of epidemic spread. Yet, their behaviour, under generic assumptions on contact rates between different age classes, is not completely known, and, in the most detailed analysis so far, Inaba (1990) was able to prove uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium only under a rather restrictive condition. Here, we show an example in the form of a 3x3 contact matrix in which multiple non-trivial steady states exist. This instance of non-uniqueness of positive equilibria differs from most existing ones for epidemic models, since it arises not from a backward transcritical bifurcation at the disease free equilibrium, but through two saddle-node bifurcations of the positive equilibrium. The dynamical behaviour of the model is analysed numerically around the range where multiple endemic equilibria exist; many other features are shown to occur, from coexistence of multiple attractive periodic solutions, some with extremely long period, to quasi-periodic and chaotic attractors. It is also shown that, if the contact rates are in the form of a 2x2 WAIFW matrix, uniqueness of non-trivial steady states always holds, so that 3 is the minimum dimension of the contact matrix to allow for multiple endemic equilibria.

  17. The age-metallicity relation in the solar neighbourhood from a pilot sample of white dwarf-main sequence binaries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rebassa-Mansergas, A.; Anguiano, B.; García-Berro, E.; Freeman, K. C.; Cojocaru, R.; Manser, C. J.; Pala, A. F.; Gänsicke, B. T.; Liu, X.-W.

    2016-08-01

    The age-metallicity relation (AMR) is a fundamental observational constraint for understanding how the Galactic disc formed and evolved chemically in time. However, there is not yet an agreement on the observational properties of the AMR for the solar neighborhood, primarily due to the difficulty in obtaining accurate stellar ages for individual field stars. We have started an observational campaign for providing the much needed observational input by using wide white dwarf-main sequence (WDMS) binaries. White dwarfs are "natural" clocks and can be used to derive accurate ages. Metallicities can be obtained from the main sequence companions. Since the progenitors of white dwarfs and the main sequence stars were born at the same time, WDMS binaries provide a unique opportunity to observationally constrain in a robust way the properties of the AMR. In this work we present the AMR derived from analysing a pilot sample of 23 WDMS binaries and provide clear observational evidence for the lack of correlation between age and metallicity at young and intermediate ages (0-7 Gyrs).

  18. Re-Evaluating Neonatal-Age Models for Ungulates: Does Model Choice Affect Survival Estimates?

    PubMed Central

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  19. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    PubMed

    Grovenburg, Troy W; Monteith, Kevin L; Jacques, Christopher N; Klaver, Robert W; DePerno, Christopher S; Brinkman, Todd J; Monteith, Kyle B; Gilbert, Sophie L; Smith, Joshua B; Bleich, Vernon C; Swanson, Christopher C; Jenks, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  20. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  1. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    PubMed

    Grovenburg, Troy W; Monteith, Kevin L; Jacques, Christopher N; Klaver, Robert W; DePerno, Christopher S; Brinkman, Todd J; Monteith, Kyle B; Gilbert, Sophie L; Smith, Joshua B; Bleich, Vernon C; Swanson, Christopher C; Jenks, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  2. The Sydney Holocaust study: posttraumatic stress disorder and other psychosocial morbidity in an aged community sample.

    PubMed

    Joffe, Charmaine; Brodaty, Henry; Luscombe, Georgina; Ehrlich, Frederick

    2003-02-01

    We investigated the psychological status and social functioning of Holocaust survivors. From 814 responses to a community survey of Jewish elders (aged 60 years or older), survivors (n = 100), refugees who had not experienced the Holocaust (n = 50), and Australian/English-born persons (n = 50), were randomly selected for semistructured interview, which included Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) assessment, ratings on the General Health Questionnaire, Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale, Impact of Event Scale, Mini-Mental Status Examination, and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living and Social Functioning. On all psychological measures, survivors were functioning worse than refugees and Australian/English-born persons. The 3 groups were similar in social and instrumental functioning. The more severe the trauma the greater the level of psychological morbidity. Despite normal social and daily functioning, psychological morbidity following massive trauma endures.

  3. Size separation method for absorption characterization in brown carbon: Application to an aged biomass burning sample

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Lorenzo, Robert A.; Young, Cora J.

    2016-01-01

    The majority of brown carbon (BrC) in atmospheric aerosols is derived from biomass burning (BB) and is primarily composed of extremely low volatility organic carbons. We use two chromatographic methods to compare the contribution of large and small light-absorbing BrC components in aged BB aerosols with UV-vis absorbance detection: (1) size exclusion chromatography (SEC) and (2) reverse phase high-performance liquid chromatography. We observe no evidence of small molecule absorbers. Most BrC absorption arises from large molecular weight components (>1000 amu). This suggests that although small molecules may contribute to BrC absorption near the BB source, analyses of aerosol extracts should use methods selective to large molecular weight compounds because these species may be responsible for long-term BrC absorption. Further characterization with electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (MS) coupled to SEC demonstrates an underestimation of the molecular size determined through MS as compared to SEC.

  4. The Impact of Case Definition on ADHD Prevalence Estimates in Community-Based Samples of School-Aged Children

    PubMed Central

    McKeown, Robert E.; Holbrook, Joseph R.; Danielson, Melissa L.; Cuffe, Steven P.; Wolraich, Mark L.; Visser, Susanna N.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To determine the impact of varying ADHD diagnostic criteria, including new DSM-5 criteria, on prevalence estimates. Method Parent and teacher reports identified ADHD high and low screen children from elementary schools in two states that produced a diverse overall sample. The parent interview stage included the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children – IV (DISC-IV), and up to four additional follow-up interviews. Weighted prevalence estimates, accounting for complex sampling, quantified the impact of varying ADHD criteria using baseline and the final follow-up interview data. Results At baseline 1060 caregivers were interviewed; 656 had at least one follow-up interview. Teachers and parents reported six or more ADHD symptoms for 20.5% (95% CI: 18.1%–23.2%) and 29.8% (CI: 24.5%–35.6%) of children respectively, with criteria for impairment and onset by age seven (DSM-IV) reducing these proportions to 16.3% (CI: 14.7%–18.0%) and 17.5% (CI: 13.3%–22.8%); requiring at least four teacher-reported symptoms reduced the parent-reported prevalence to 8.9% (CI: 7.4%–10.6%). Revising age of onset to 12 years per DSM-5 increased this estimate to 11.3% (CI: 9.5%–13.3%), with a similar increase seen at follow-up: 8.2% with age seven onset (CI: 5.9%–11.2%) versus 13.0% (CI: 7.6%–21.4%) with onset by age 12. Reducing the number of symptoms required for those aged 17 and older increased the estimate to 13.1% (CI: 7.7%–21.5%). Conclusion These findings quantify the impact on prevalence estimates of varying case definition criteria for ADHD. Further research of impairment ratings and data from multiple informants is required to better inform clinicians conducting diagnostic assessments. DSM-5 changes in age of onset and number of symptoms required for older adolescents appear to increase prevalence estimates, although the full impact is uncertain due to the age of our sample. PMID:25524790

  5. Chronic depression as a model disease for cerebral aging.

    PubMed

    Bewernick, Bettina H; Schlaepfer, Thomas E

    2013-03-01

    Conceptualizations of the underlying neurobiology of major depression have changed their focus from dysfunctions of neurotransmission to dysfunctions of neurogenesis and neuroprotection. The "neurogenesis hypothesis of depression" posits that changes in the rate of neurogenesis are the underlying mechanism in the pathology and treatment of major depression. Stress, neuroinflammation, dysfunctional insulin regulation, oxidative stress, and alterations in neurotrophic factors possibly contribute to the development of depression. The influence of antidepressant therapies, namely pharmacotherapy and neuroprotectants, on cellular plasticity are summarized. A dysfunction of complex neuronal networks as a consequence of neural degeneration in neuropsychiatric diseases has led to the application of deep brain stimulation. We discuss the way depression seen in the light of the neurogenesis hypothesis can be used as a model disease for cerebral aging. A common pathological mechanism in depression and cerebral aging-a dysfunction of neuroprotection and neurogenesis-is discussed. This has implications for new treatment methods.

  6. StalAge - A new algorithm especially designed for the construction of speleothem age-depth models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scholz, Denis; Hoffmann, Dirk

    2010-05-01

    A standard approach to construct age-depth models for speleothems on the basis of 230Th/U-ages is not available yet. Some studies apply linear interpolation between dated depths; others use least squares polynomial fits. Other authors, in turn, use various kinds of splines or even more sophisticated methods based on the general growth mechanisms of speleothems. A general approach to estimate the uncertainty of stalagmite age models has neither been developed yet. Since the exact determination of the timing and duration of climatic events recorded in speleothem calcite depends on the method used to calculate the age model, a general technique for the calculation of both the age model and its uncertainty is urgently needed. Here we present a new algorithm, especially designed for constructing age-depth models based on speleothem 230Th/U-ages. The algorithm relies on two basic assumptions: (i) the age model must increase monotonically with increasing distance from top of the stalagmite, and (ii) if possible within the associated error bars, the simplest age-depth relationship (i.e., a straight line) is fitted to the age data. Whereas the first assumption simply arises from the absolute constraint of increasing age with increasing distance from top, the second assumption avoids over-interpretation of the age data. The performance of the algorithm was tested using synthetic speleothem age data. For this purpose, a numerical model simulating (i) speleothem growth, (ii) incorporation and temporal evolution of U-series isotopes and (iii) mass spectrometric analysis was developed. This allows simulation of extreme scenarios, such as stalagmite sections including obvious outliers, age inversions and pronounced detrital contamination, and also to test the performance and robustness of the algorithm under these conditions. The developed algorithm has distinct advantages in comparison with the existing methods. Firstly, it is very robust. Outliers and age inversions are

  7. A model for estimating the value of sampling programs and the optimal number of samples for contaminated soil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Back, Pär-Erik

    2007-04-01

    A model is presented for estimating the value of information of sampling programs for contaminated soil. The purpose is to calculate the optimal number of samples when the objective is to estimate the mean concentration. A Bayesian risk-cost-benefit decision analysis framework is applied and the approach is design-based. The model explicitly includes sample uncertainty at a complexity level that can be applied to practical contaminated land problems with limited amount of data. Prior information about the contamination level is modelled by probability density functions. The value of information is expressed in monetary terms. The most cost-effective sampling program is the one with the highest expected net value. The model was applied to a contaminated scrap yard in Göteborg, Sweden, contaminated by metals. The optimal number of samples was determined to be in the range of 16-18 for a remediation unit of 100 m2. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the perspective of the decision-maker is important, and that the cost of failure and the future land use are the most important factors to consider. The model can also be applied for other sampling problems, for example, sampling and testing of wastes to meet landfill waste acceptance procedures.

  8. AGING PERFORMANCE OF MODEL 9975 PACKAGE FLUOROELASTOMER O-RINGS

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffman, E.; Daugherty, W.; Skidmore, E.; Dunn, K.; Fisher, D.

    2011-05-31

    The influence of temperature and radiation on Viton{reg_sign} GLT and GLT-S fluoroelastomer O-rings is an ongoing research focus at the Savannah River National Laboratory. The O-rings are credited for leaktight containment in the Model 9975 shipping package used for transportation of plutonium-bearing materials. At the Savannah River Site, the Model 9975 packages are being used for interim storage. Primary research efforts have focused on surveillance of O-rings from actual packages, leak testing of seals at bounding aging conditions and the effect of aging temperature on compression stress relaxation behavior, with the goal of service life prediction for long-term storage conditions. Recently, an additional effort to evaluate the effect of aging temperature on the oxidation of the materials has begun. Degradation in the mechanical properties of elastomers is directly related to the oxidation of the polymer. Sensitive measurements of the oxidation rate can be performed in a more timely manner than waiting for a measurable change in mechanical properties, especially at service temperatures. Measuring the oxidation rate therefore provides a means to validate the assumption that the degradation mechanisms(s) do not change from the elevated temperatures used for accelerated aging and the lower service temperatures. Monitoring the amount of oxygen uptake by the material over time at various temperatures can provide increased confidence in lifetime predictions. Preliminary oxygen consumption analysis of a Viton GLT-based fluoroelastomer compound (Parker V0835-75) using an Oxzilla II differential oxygen analyzer in the temperature range of 40-120 C was performed. Early data suggests oxygen consumption rates may level off within the first 100,000 hours (10-12 years) at 40 C and that sharp changes in the degradation mechanism (stress-relaxation) are not expected over the temperature range examined. This is consistent with the known long-term heat aging resistance of

  9. Effects of sample survey design on the accuracy of classification tree models in species distribution models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Edwards, T.C.; Cutler, D.R.; Zimmermann, N.E.; Geiser, L.; Moisen, G.G.

    2006-01-01

    We evaluated the effects of probabilistic (hereafter DESIGN) and non-probabilistic (PURPOSIVE) sample surveys on resultant classification tree models for predicting the presence of four lichen species in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models derived from both survey forms were assessed using an independent data set (EVALUATION). Measures of accuracy as gauged by resubstitution rates were similar for each lichen species irrespective of the underlying sample survey form. Cross-validation estimates of prediction accuracies were lower than resubstitution accuracies for all species and both design types, and in all cases were closer to the true prediction accuracies based on the EVALUATION data set. We argue that greater emphasis should be placed on calculating and reporting cross-validation accuracy rates rather than simple resubstitution accuracy rates. Evaluation of the DESIGN and PURPOSIVE tree models on the EVALUATION data set shows significantly lower prediction accuracy for the PURPOSIVE tree models relative to the DESIGN models, indicating that non-probabilistic sample surveys may generate models with limited predictive capability. These differences were consistent across all four lichen species, with 11 of the 12 possible species and sample survey type comparisons having significantly lower accuracy rates. Some differences in accuracy were as large as 50%. The classification tree structures also differed considerably both among and within the modelled species, depending on the sample survey form. Overlap in the predictor variables selected by the DESIGN and PURPOSIVE tree models ranged from only 20% to 38%, indicating the classification trees fit the two evaluated survey forms on different sets of predictor variables. The magnitude of these differences in predictor variables throws doubt on ecological interpretation derived from prediction models based on non-probabilistic sample surveys. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Evaluating Small Sample Approaches for Model Test Statistics in Structural Equation Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nevitt, Jonathan; Hancock, Gregory R.

    2004-01-01

    Through Monte Carlo simulation, small sample methods for evaluating overall data-model fit in structural equation modeling were explored. Type I error behavior and power were examined using maximum likelihood (ML), Satorra-Bentler scaled and adjusted (SB; Satorra & Bentler, 1988, 1994), residual-based (Browne, 1984), and asymptotically…

  11. Marital happiness and sleep disturbances in a multi-ethnic sample of middle-aged women.

    PubMed

    Troxel, Wendy M; Buysse, Daniel J; Hall, Martica; Matthews, Karen A

    2009-01-01

    Previous research suggests that divorced individuals, particularly women, have higher rates of sleep disturbances as compared to married individuals. Among the married, however, little is known about the association between relationship quality and sleep. The present study examined the association between marital happiness and self-reported sleep disturbances in a sample of midlife women drawn from the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN), a multi-site, multi-ethnic, community-based study (N = 2,148). Marital happiness was measured using a single item from the Dyadic Adjustment Scale, and sleep disturbance was assessed using 4 items from the Women's Health Initiative Insomnia Rating Scale (WHIIRS). After controlling for relevant covariates, maritally happy women reported fewer sleep disturbances, with the association evident among Caucasian women and to a lesser extent among African American women.

  12. Marital happiness and sleep disturbances in a multi-ethnic sample of middle-aged women.

    PubMed

    Troxel, Wendy M; Buysse, Daniel J; Hall, Martica; Matthews, Karen A

    2009-01-01

    Previous research suggests that divorced individuals, particularly women, have higher rates of sleep disturbances as compared to married individuals. Among the married, however, little is known about the association between relationship quality and sleep. The present study examined the association between marital happiness and self-reported sleep disturbances in a sample of midlife women drawn from the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN), a multi-site, multi-ethnic, community-based study (N = 2,148). Marital happiness was measured using a single item from the Dyadic Adjustment Scale, and sleep disturbance was assessed using 4 items from the Women's Health Initiative Insomnia Rating Scale (WHIIRS). After controlling for relevant covariates, maritally happy women reported fewer sleep disturbances, with the association evident among Caucasian women and to a lesser extent among African American women. PMID:19116797

  13. 3HE RECOVERY FROM A TRITIUM-AGED LANA75 SAMPLE

    SciTech Connect

    Shanahan, K.

    2010-12-01

    {sup 3}He recovery is a topic of recent interest. One potential recovery source is from metal hydride materials once used to store tritium, as the decay product, {sup 3}He, is primarily trapped in the metal lattice, usually in bubbles, with such materials. In 2001, a Tritium Exposure Program (TEP) sample known as LANA75-SP1 was retired and the material was removed from the test cell and stored. Subsequently scoping temperature programmed desorption (TPD) experiments were conducted on that material to see what it might take to drive out He and residual H isotopes (the heel). Two experiments consisted of heating the sample in the presence of an excess of tin (the so-called Sn fusion experiment), and one was a simple TPD with no additives. Prior data on the so-called '21-month bed' material in the 1980's had produced {approx}21 cc of gas per gram of a LANA30 material (LaNi4.7Al0.3), with approximately 67% of that being {sup 3}He and the rest being D{sub 2} (Fig.3). However, the material had to be heated in excess of 850 C to obtain that level. Heating to less produced approximately half that amount of gas. The data also showed that {sup 3}He was released at different temperatures than the residual hydrogen isotopes. Unfortunately this implies full {sup 3}He recovery will be a difficult process. Therefore, it seemed advisable to attempt to extract as much information from the 3 scoping experiments from 2001-2 as possible.

  14. Cognitive aging and hearing acuity: modeling spoken language comprehension

    PubMed Central

    Wingfield, Arthur; Amichetti, Nicole M.; Lash, Amanda

    2015-01-01

    The comprehension of spoken language has been characterized by a number of “local” theories that have focused on specific aspects of the task: models of word recognition, models of selective attention, accounts of thematic role assignment at the sentence level, and so forth. The ease of language understanding (ELU) model (Rönnberg et al., 2013) stands as one of the few attempts to offer a fully encompassing framework for language understanding. In this paper we discuss interactions between perceptual, linguistic, and cognitive factors in spoken language understanding. Central to our presentation is an examination of aspects of the ELU model that apply especially to spoken language comprehension in adult aging, where speed of processing, working memory capacity, and hearing acuity are often compromised. We discuss, in relation to the ELU model, conceptions of working memory and its capacity limitations, the use of linguistic context to aid in speech recognition and the importance of inhibitory control, and language comprehension at the sentence level. Throughout this paper we offer a constructive look at the ELU model; where it is strong and where there are gaps to be filled. PMID:26124724

  15. Reconciling Hf-W Model Ages of IVB Parent Body with Numerical Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neumann, W.; Breuer, D.; Kleine, T.; Kruijer, T.

    2016-08-01

    We calculated the differentiation of the parent body of IVB iron meteorites comparing its evolution to the metal separation data. Our models are consistent with the separation ages inferred from the Hf-W chronology.

  16. Stochastic lattice model for bone remodeling and aging.

    PubMed

    Weinkamer, Richard; Hartmann, Markus A; Brechet, Yves; Fratzl, Peter

    2004-11-26

    We investigate the remodeling process of trabecular bone inside a human vertebral body using a stochastic lattice model, in which the ability of living bone to adapt to mechanical stimuli is incorporated. Our simulations show the emergence of a networklike structure similar to real trabecular bone. With time, the bone volume fraction reaches a steady state. The microstructure, however, coarsens with a typical length in the system following a power law. The simulation results suggest that a coarsening of the trabecular structure should occur as a natural aging phenomenon, not related to disease.

  17. Computational Thermomechanical Modelling of Early-Age Silicate Composites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vala, J.; Št'astník, S.; Kozák, V.

    2009-09-01

    Strains and stresses in early-age silicate composites, widely used in civil engineering, especially in fresh concrete mixtures, in addition to those caused by exterior mechanical loads, are results of complicated non-deterministic physical and chemical processes. Their numerical prediction at the macro-scale level requires the non-trivial physical analysis based on the thermodynamic principles, making use of micro-structural information from both theoretical and experimental research. The paper introduces a computational model, based on a nonlinear system of macroscopic equations of evolution, supplied with certain effective material characteristics, coming from the micro-scale analysis, and sketches the algorithm for its numerical analysis.

  18. The OMS3 JGrass-NewAge Environmental Modelling System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Formetta, G.; David, O.; Rigon, R.

    2012-12-01

    The need for integrated analysis, and the multiplicity of possible goals in analyses that require hydro-biophysical modelling, necessitates more than ever the capability of composing modelling solutions with parts of known quality, which are transparent to users and consist of reusable model components. Moreover, modern hydrological modelling requires interaction with GIS tools to allow visualizations and the data-processing necessary to synthesise knowledge from high volumes of inputs and outputs data. Last but not least, doing science that is reproducible has requirements that go beyond the computational issues to embrace the possibility to inspection the tools, and easy compare modelling solutions by third party groups. The JGrass-NewAge system was born in order to satisfy these requirements. It is based on the geographic information system uDig-JGrass, and is composed of two parts: (i) the system of visualization of the data and of the results based on uDig; (ii) the modelling components. The latter are implemented as OMS3 components which can be connected or excluded at runtime, according to the needs and works seamlessly inside the uDig Spatial Toolbox. The system is based on a hillslope-link geometrical partition of the landscape, thus the basic unit, where the water budget is evaluated, is the hillslope, and each one of them drains into a single associated link rather than cells or pixels. To this conceptual partition corresponds an implementation of informatics that uses vectorial features for channels, and raster data for hillslopes. The mass budget for each hillslope can be performed in two ways: according to a modification of Duffy dynamical model of hillslope runoff or according to HyMod lumped model. Differently from traditional rainfall-runoff models where the discharge is usually given at the outlet of a catchment, the discharge is evaluated in each link of the river network according to a procedure presented in Cuencas model. The system includes

  19. Age-structured mark-recapture analysis: A virtual-population-analysis-based model for analyzing age-structured capture-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Martell, S.J.D.

    2006-01-01

    We present a new model to estimate capture probabilities, survival, abundance, and recruitment using traditional Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methods within a standard fisheries virtual population analysis framework. This approach compares the numbers of marked and unmarked fish at age captured in each year of sampling with predictions based on estimated vulnerabilities and abundance in a likelihood function. Recruitment to the earliest age at which fish can be tagged is estimated by using a virtual population analysis method to back-calculate the expected numbers of unmarked fish at risk of capture. By using information from both marked and unmarked animals in a standard fisheries age structure framework, this approach is well suited to the sparse data situations common in long-term capture-recapture programs with variable sampling effort. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

  20. Chronic neck and shoulder pain, age, and working conditions: longitudinal results from a large random sample in France

    PubMed Central

    Cassou, B; Derriennic, F; Monfort, C; Norton, J; Touranchet, A

    2002-01-01

    Aims: To analyse the effects of age and occupational factors on both the incidence and the disappearance of chronic neck and shoulder pain after a five year follow up period. Methods: A prospective longitudinal investigation (ESTEV) was carried out in 1990 and 1995 in seven regions of France. A random sample of male and female workers born in 1938, 1943, 1948, and 1953 was selected from the occupational physicians' files. In 1990, 21 378 subjects were interviewed (88% of those contacted), and 87% were interviewed again in 1995. Chronic neck and shoulder pain satisfying specific criteria, and psychosocial working conditions were investigated by a structured self administered questionnaire and a clinical examination. Results: Prevalence (men 7.8%, women 14.8% in 1990) and incidence (men 7.3%, women 12.5% for the period 1990–95) of chronic neck and shoulder pain increased with age, and were more frequent among women than men in every birth cohort. The disappearance rate of chronic neck and shoulder pain decreased with age. Some adverse working conditions (repetitive work under time constraints, awkward work for men, repetitive work for women) contributed to the development of these disorders, independently of age. Psychosocial factors seemed to play a role in both the development and disappearance of chronic neck and shoulder pain. Data did not show specific interactions between age and working conditions. Conclusions: The aging of the workforce appears to contribute to the widespread concern about chronic neck and shoulder pain. A better understanding of work activity regulation of older workers can open up new preventive prospects. PMID:12151610

  1. Modelling age and secular differences in fitness between basketball players.

    PubMed

    Drinkwater, Eric J; Hopkins, Will G; McKenna, Michael J; Hunt, Patrick H; Pyne, David B

    2007-06-01

    Concerns about the value of physical testing and apparently declining test performance in junior basketball players prompted this retrospective study of trends in anthropometric and fitness test scores related to recruitment age and recruitment year. The participants were 1011 females and 1087 males entering Basketball Australia's State and National programmes (1862 and 236 players, respectively). Players were tested on 2.6 +/- 2.0 (mean +/- s) occasions over 0.8 +/- 1.0 year. Test scores were adjusted to recruitment age (14-19 years) and recruitment year (1996-2003) using mixed modelling. Effects were estimated by log transformation and expressed as standardized (Cohen) differences in means. National players scored more favourably than State players on all tests, with the differences being generally small (standardized differences, 0.2-0.6) or moderate (0.6-1.2). On all tests, males scored more favourably than females, with large standardized differences (>1.2). Athletes entering at age 16 performed at least moderately better than athletes entering at age 14 on most tests (standardized differences, 0.7-2.1), but test scores often plateaued or began to deteriorate at around 17 years. Some fitness scores deteriorated over the 8-year period, most notably a moderate increase in sprint time and moderate (National male) to large (National female) declines in shuttle run performance. Variation in test scores between National players was generally less than that between State players (ratio of standard deviations, 0.83-1.18). More favourable means and lower variability in athletes of a higher standard highlight the potential utility of these tests in junior basketball programmes, although secular declines should be a major concern of Australian basketball coaches.

  2. Corn blight review: Sampling model and ground data measurements program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Allen, R. D.

    1972-01-01

    The sampling plan involved the selection of the study area, determination of the flightline and segment sample design within the study area, and determination of a field sample design. Initial interview survey data consisting of crop species acreage and land use were collected. On all corn fields, additional information such as seed type, row direction, population, planting date, ect. were also collected. From this information, sample corn fields were selected to be observed through the growing season on a biweekly basis by county extension personnel.

  3. Development of the Thai healthy aging model: A grounded theory study.

    PubMed

    Thiamwong, Ladda; McManus, Michael S; Suwanno, Jom

    2013-06-01

    To develop a model of healthy aging from the perspective of Thais, a grounded theory approach, including in-depth interviews and focus groups, was used. A purposive sample of 39 community-dwelling adults aged 40-85 years old was interviewed. The Thai healthy aging model composed of three themes: normality, nature, and dharma. In Thai, they are called tham-ma-da, tham-ma-chat, and tham-ma, or "Thai 3Ts". The theme of normality encompasses subthemes of staying physically active by being involved in plenty of physical activities, and being mentally active with creative and thoughtful hobbies and work. The theme of nature encompasses subthemes of living simply and being careful with money. The theme of dharma encompasses subthemes of enjoyment through helping family and participating in community activities, staying away from stress and worries by talking openly and honestly with someone, making merit, and helping other people without expecting anything in return. A greater understanding of healthy aging is a benefit for older adults and healthcare providers in an intervention-design process. Research can contribute valuable information to shape policy for healthy aging as well.

  4. Monte Carlo path sampling approach to modeling aeolian sediment transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardin, E. J.; Mitasova, H.; Mitas, L.

    2011-12-01

    Coastal communities and vital infrastructure are subject to coastal hazards including storm surge and hurricanes. Coastal dunes offer protection by acting as natural barriers from waves and storm surge. During storms, these landforms and their protective function can erode; however, they can also erode even in the absence of storms due to daily wind and waves. Costly and often controversial beach nourishment and coastal construction projects are common erosion mitigation practices. With a more complete understanding of coastal morphology, the efficacy and consequences of anthropogenic activities could be better predicted. Currently, the research on coastal landscape evolution is focused on waves and storm surge, while only limited effort is devoted to understanding aeolian forces. Aeolian transport occurs when the wind supplies a shear stress that exceeds a critical value, consequently ejecting sand grains into the air. If the grains are too heavy to be suspended, they fall back to the grain bed where the collision ejects more grains. This is called saltation and is the salient process by which sand mass is transported. The shear stress required to dislodge grains is related to turbulent air speed. Subsequently, as sand mass is injected into the air, the wind loses speed along with its ability to eject more grains. In this way, the flux of saltating grains is itself influenced by the flux of saltating grains and aeolian transport becomes nonlinear. Aeolian sediment transport is difficult to study experimentally for reasons arising from the orders of magnitude difference between grain size and dune size. It is difficult to study theoretically because aeolian transport is highly nonlinear especially over complex landscapes. Current computational approaches have limitations as well; single grain models are mathematically simple but are computationally intractable even with modern computing power whereas cellular automota-based approaches are computationally efficient

  5. Lattice percolation approach to 3D modeling of tissue aging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorshkov, Vyacheslav; Privman, Vladimir; Libert, Sergiy

    2016-11-01

    We describe a 3D percolation-type approach to modeling of the processes of aging and certain other properties of tissues analyzed as systems consisting of interacting cells. Lattice sites are designated as regular (healthy) cells, senescent cells, or vacancies left by dead (apoptotic) cells. The system is then studied dynamically with the ongoing processes including regular cell dividing to fill vacant sites, healthy cells becoming senescent or dying, and senescent cells dying. Statistical-mechanics description can provide patterns of time dependence and snapshots of morphological system properties. The developed theoretical modeling approach is found not only to corroborate recent experimental findings that inhibition of senescence can lead to extended lifespan, but also to confirm that, unlike 2D, in 3D senescent cells can contribute to tissue's connectivity/mechanical stability. The latter effect occurs by senescent cells forming the second infinite cluster in the regime when the regular (healthy) cell's infinite cluster still exists.

  6. Age-aware solder performance models : level 2 milestone completion.

    SciTech Connect

    Neilsen, Michael K.; Vianco, Paul Thomas; Neidigk, Matthew Aaron; Holm, Elizabeth Ann

    2010-09-01

    Legislated requirements and industry standards are replacing eutectic lead-tin (Pb-Sn) solders with lead-free (Pb-free) solders in future component designs and in replacements and retrofits. Since Pb-free solders have not yet seen service for long periods, their long-term behavior is poorly characterized. Because understanding the reliability of Pb-free solders is critical to supporting the next generation of circuit board designs, it is imperative that we develop, validate and exercise a solder lifetime model that can capture the thermomechanical response of Pb-free solder joints in stockpile components. To this end, an ASC Level 2 milestone was identified for fiscal year 2010: Milestone 3605: Utilize experimentally validated constitutive model for lead-free solder to simulate aging and reliability of solder joints in stockpile components. This report documents the completion of this milestone, including evidence that the milestone completion criteria were met and a summary of the milestone Program Review.

  7. Overview of Modeling and Simulations of Plutonium Aging

    SciTech Connect

    Schwartz, A J; Wolfer, W G

    2007-04-24

    Computer-aided materials research is now an integral part of science and technology. It becomes particularly valuable when comprehensive experimental investigations and materials testing are too costly, hazardous, or of excessive duration; then, theoretical and computational studies can supplement and enhance the information gained from limited experimental data. Such is the case for improving our fundamental understanding of the properties of aging plutonium in the nuclear weapons stockpile. The question of the effects of plutonium aging on the safety, security, and reliability of the nuclear weapons stockpile emerged after the United States closed its plutonium manufacturing facility in 1989 and decided to suspend any further underground testing of nuclear weapons in 1992. To address this, the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) initiated a research program to investigate plutonium aging, i.e., the changes with time of properties of Pu-Ga alloys employed in the nuclear weapons and to develop models describing these changes sufficiently reliable to forecast them for several decades. The November 26, 2006 press release by the NNSA summarizes the conclusions of the investigation, '...there appear to be no serious or sudden changes occurring, or expected to occur, in plutonium that would affect performance of pits beyond the well-understood, gradual degradation of plutonium materials'. Furthermore, 'These studies show that the degradation of plutonium in our nuclear weapons will not affect warhead reliability for decades', then NNSA Administrator Linton Brooks said. 'It is now clear that although plutonium aging contributes, other factors control the overall life expectancy of nuclear weapons systems'. The origin of plutonium aging is the natural decay of certain plutonium isotopes. Specifically, it is the process of alpha decay in which a plutonium atom spontaneously splits into a 5 MeV alpha particle and an 85keV uranium recoil

  8. Chemical analyses and K-Ar ages of samples from 13 drill holes, Medicine Lake volcano, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.

    2006-01-01

    This report presents chemical analyses and K-Ar ages obtained from drill hole samples studied in support of geologic mapping at Medicine Lake volcano (MLV), northern California. The holes were drilled by private companies exploring for geothermal energy at the volcano. Drill core and cuttings were later made available for study; core is stored at the Energy and Geoscience Institute (EGI) warehouse in Salt Lake City, Utah. Discussion of the significance of the chemical and age data will be presented elsewhere, although it is apparent from the cross-section and from Table 1 that a large percentage of MLV core consists of rocks with more than 63 percent SiO2.

  9. The aging feline kidney: a model mortality antagonist?

    PubMed

    Lawler, Dennis F; Evans, Richard H; Chase, Kevin; Ellersieck, Mark; Li, Qinghong; Larson, Brian T; Satyaraj, Ebenezer; Heininger, Kurt

    2006-12-01

    Traditional thinking views apparently non-programmed disruptions of aging, which medical science calls geriatric diseases, as separate from 'less harmful' morphological and physiological aging phenotypes that are more universally expected with passage of time (loss of skin elasticity, graying of hair coat, weight gain, increased sleep time, behavioral changes, etc). Late-life disease phenotypes, especially those involving chronic processes, frequently are complex and very energy-expensive. A non-programmed process of homeostatic disruption leading into a death trajectory seems inconsistent with energy intensive processes. That is, evolutionary mechanisms do not favor complex and prolonged energy investment in death. Taking a different view, the naturally occurring feline (Felis silvestris catus) renal model suggests that at least some diseases of late life represent only the point of failure in essentially survival-driven adaptive processes. In the feline renal model, individuals that succumbed to failure most frequently displayed progressive tubular deletion and peritubular interstitial fibrosis, but had longer mean life span than cats that died from other causes. Additionally, among cats that died from non-renal causes, those that had degrees of renal tubular deletion and peritubular interstitial fibrosis also had longer mean life span than those cats with no changes, even though causes of death differed minimally between these latter two groups. The data indicate that selective tubular deletion very frequently begins early in adult life, without a clear initiating phase or event. The observations support a hypothesis that this prolonged process may be intrinsic and protective prior to an ultimate point of failure. Moreover, given the genetic complexity and the interplay with associated risk factors, existing data also do not support the ideas that these changes are simple compensatory responses and that breed- or strain-based 'default' diseases are inevitable

  10. The aging feline kidney: a model mortality antagonist?

    PubMed

    Lawler, Dennis F; Evans, Richard H; Chase, Kevin; Ellersieck, Mark; Li, Qinghong; Larson, Brian T; Satyaraj, Ebenezer; Heininger, Kurt

    2006-12-01

    Traditional thinking views apparently non-programmed disruptions of aging, which medical science calls geriatric diseases, as separate from 'less harmful' morphological and physiological aging phenotypes that are more universally expected with passage of time (loss of skin elasticity, graying of hair coat, weight gain, increased sleep time, behavioral changes, etc). Late-life disease phenotypes, especially those involving chronic processes, frequently are complex and very energy-expensive. A non-programmed process of homeostatic disruption leading into a death trajectory seems inconsistent with energy intensive processes. That is, evolutionary mechanisms do not favor complex and prolonged energy investment in death. Taking a different view, the naturally occurring feline (Felis silvestris catus) renal model suggests that at least some diseases of late life represent only the point of failure in essentially survival-driven adaptive processes. In the feline renal model, individuals that succumbed to failure most frequently displayed progressive tubular deletion and peritubular interstitial fibrosis, but had longer mean life span than cats that died from other causes. Additionally, among cats that died from non-renal causes, those that had degrees of renal tubular deletion and peritubular interstitial fibrosis also had longer mean life span than those cats with no changes, even though causes of death differed minimally between these latter two groups. The data indicate that selective tubular deletion very frequently begins early in adult life, without a clear initiating phase or event. The observations support a hypothesis that this prolonged process may be intrinsic and protective prior to an ultimate point of failure. Moreover, given the genetic complexity and the interplay with associated risk factors, existing data also do not support the ideas that these changes are simple compensatory responses and that breed- or strain-based 'default' diseases are inevitable

  11. Changes in Volatile Compounds during Aging of Sweet Fennel Fruits-Comparison of Hydrodistillation and Static Headspace Sampling Methods.

    PubMed

    Najdoska-Bogdanov, Mence; Bogdanov, Jane B; Stefova, Marina

    2016-03-01

    Two extraction methods for subsequent gas chromatographic (GC) determination of volatiles from freshly harvested and aged fennel fruit samples (Foeniculum vulgare Mill.,ssp. vulgare var. dulce) have been compared. Hydrodistillation followed by GC-FID and GC-MS analysis was used as a standard method for essential oil characterization, while static headspace followed by GC (SHS-GC-FID) was used as a comparative method for determination of volatile components. As the fennel fruit ages, there is a gradual loss of the volatile components as indicated by the lower yield of essential oil and lower content of volatiles, as indicated by the alternative SHS-GC-FID analysis. Slight differences observed for the main components (trans-anethole, estragole, fenchone, and limonene) using the two methods are negligible, indicating that these volatiles did not undergo chemical transformation during the sample preparation procedures. A difference in anisaldehyde content was observed when the composition of the hydrodistilled essential oil was compared with the SHS-GC-FIDanalysis of volatiles and explanation for the variation of anisaldehyde content and the origin of other compounds was suggested. Comparison of the obtained results showed that limonene oxides, carvone and carveolare detectable in SHS-GC-FID analysis of the aged fennel fruits, while in hydrodistilled samples analyzed by GC-FID they were not present. Another observed difference was the appearance of products in significant amounts with higher retention times than trans-anethole, namely threo- and erythro-anethole β-hydroxymethylether and anethole glycol that are not detectable in the essential oil obtained by hydrodistillation. So, the relative abundance of the major components is comparable between these two methods for fennel seed up to 3 years from harvest and they can be used interchangeably depending on the purpose and amount of material. Furthermore, SHS-GC-FID can be used for assessment of maximum storage time

  12. Changes in Volatile Compounds during Aging of Sweet Fennel Fruits-Comparison of Hydrodistillation and Static Headspace Sampling Methods.

    PubMed

    Najdoska-Bogdanov, Mence; Bogdanov, Jane B; Stefova, Marina

    2016-03-01

    Two extraction methods for subsequent gas chromatographic (GC) determination of volatiles from freshly harvested and aged fennel fruit samples (Foeniculum vulgare Mill.,ssp. vulgare var. dulce) have been compared. Hydrodistillation followed by GC-FID and GC-MS analysis was used as a standard method for essential oil characterization, while static headspace followed by GC (SHS-GC-FID) was used as a comparative method for determination of volatile components. As the fennel fruit ages, there is a gradual loss of the volatile components as indicated by the lower yield of essential oil and lower content of volatiles, as indicated by the alternative SHS-GC-FID analysis. Slight differences observed for the main components (trans-anethole, estragole, fenchone, and limonene) using the two methods are negligible, indicating that these volatiles did not undergo chemical transformation during the sample preparation procedures. A difference in anisaldehyde content was observed when the composition of the hydrodistilled essential oil was compared with the SHS-GC-FIDanalysis of volatiles and explanation for the variation of anisaldehyde content and the origin of other compounds was suggested. Comparison of the obtained results showed that limonene oxides, carvone and carveolare detectable in SHS-GC-FID analysis of the aged fennel fruits, while in hydrodistilled samples analyzed by GC-FID they were not present. Another observed difference was the appearance of products in significant amounts with higher retention times than trans-anethole, namely threo- and erythro-anethole β-hydroxymethylether and anethole glycol that are not detectable in the essential oil obtained by hydrodistillation. So, the relative abundance of the major components is comparable between these two methods for fennel seed up to 3 years from harvest and they can be used interchangeably depending on the purpose and amount of material. Furthermore, SHS-GC-FID can be used for assessment of maximum storage time

  13. Sample Size Considerations in Prevention Research Applications of Multilevel Modeling and Structural Equation Modeling.

    PubMed

    Hoyle, Rick H; Gottfredson, Nisha C

    2015-10-01

    When the goal of prevention research is to capture in statistical models some measure of the dynamic complexity in structures and processes implicated in problem behavior and its prevention, approaches such as multilevel modeling (MLM) and structural equation modeling (SEM) are indicated. Yet the assumptions that must be satisfied if these approaches are to be used responsibly raise concerns regarding their use in prevention research involving smaller samples. In this article, we discuss in nontechnical terms the role of sample size in MLM and SEM and present findings from the latest simulation work on the performance of each approach at sample sizes typical of prevention research. For each statistical approach, we draw from extant simulation studies to establish lower bounds for sample size (e.g., MLM can be applied with as few as ten groups comprising ten members with normally distributed data, restricted maximum likelihood estimation, and a focus on fixed effects; sample sizes as small as N = 50 can produce reliable SEM results with normally distributed data and at least three reliable indicators per factor) and suggest strategies for making the best use of the modeling approach when N is near the lower bound.

  14. Birth cohort differences in fluid cognition in old age: comparisons of trends in levels and change trajectories over 30 years in three population-based samples.

    PubMed

    Karlsson, Peter; Thorvaldsson, Valgeir; Skoog, Ingmar; Gudmundsson, Pia; Johansson, Boo

    2015-03-01

    Later-born cohorts of older adults tend to outperform earlier born on fluid cognition (i.e., Flynn effect) when measured at the same chronological ages. We investigated cohort differences in level of performance and rate of change across three population-based samples born in 1901, 1906, and 1930, drawn from the Gerontological and Geriatric Population Studies in Gothenburg, Sweden (H70), and measured on tests of logical reasoning and spatial ability at ages 70, 75, and 79 years. Estimates from multiple-group latent growth curve models (LGCM) revealed, in line with previous studies, substantial differences in level of performance where later-born cohorts outperformed earlier born cohorts. Somewhat surprisingly, later-born cohorts showed, on average, a steeper decline than the earlier-born cohort. Gender and education only partially accounted for observed cohort trends. Men outperformed women in the 1906 and 1930 cohorts but no difference was found in the 1901 cohort. More years of education was associated with improved performance in all three cohorts. Our findings confirm the presence of birth cohort effects also in old age but indicate a faster rate of decline in later-born samples. Potential explanations for these findings are discussed.

  15. Modeling senescence changes of the pubic symphysis in historic Italian populations: a comparison of the Rostock and forensic approaches to aging using transition analysis.

    PubMed

    Godde, Kanya; Hens, Samantha M

    2015-03-01

    Age-related anatomical changes to the surface of the pubic symphysis are well-documented in the literature. However, aligning these morphological changes with chronological age has proven problematic, often resulting in biased age estimates. Statistical modeling provides an avenue for forensic anthropologists and bioarchaeologists to increase the accuracy of traditional aging methods. Locating appropriate samples to use as a basis for modeling age estimations can be challenging due to differing sample age distributions and potentially varying patterns of senescence. We compared two approaches, Rostock and Forensic, coupled with a Bayesian methodology, to address these issues. Transition analysis was run specific to each method (which differ by sample selection). A Gompertz model was derived from an informative prior that yielded the mortality and senescence parameters for constructing highest posterior density ranges, i.e., coverages, which are analogous to age ranges. These age ranges were generated from both approaches and are presented as reference tables useful for historic male and female Italian samples. The age ranges produced from each approach were tested on an historic Italian sample, using cumulative binomial tests. These two approaches performed similarly, with the Forensic approach showing a slight advantage. However, the Forensic approach is unable to identify varying senescence patterns between populations, thus preference for one approach over the other will depend on research design. Finally, we demonstrate that while populations exhibit similar morphological changes with advancing age, there are no significant sex differences in these samples, and the timing of these changes varies from population to population. PMID:25407762

  16. Modeling senescence changes of the pubic symphysis in historic Italian populations: a comparison of the Rostock and forensic approaches to aging using transition analysis.

    PubMed

    Godde, Kanya; Hens, Samantha M

    2015-03-01

    Age-related anatomical changes to the surface of the pubic symphysis are well-documented in the literature. However, aligning these morphological changes with chronological age has proven problematic, often resulting in biased age estimates. Statistical modeling provides an avenue for forensic anthropologists and bioarchaeologists to increase the accuracy of traditional aging methods. Locating appropriate samples to use as a basis for modeling age estimations can be challenging due to differing sample age distributions and potentially varying patterns of senescence. We compared two approaches, Rostock and Forensic, coupled with a Bayesian methodology, to address these issues. Transition analysis was run specific to each method (which differ by sample selection). A Gompertz model was derived from an informative prior that yielded the mortality and senescence parameters for constructing highest posterior density ranges, i.e., coverages, which are analogous to age ranges. These age ranges were generated from both approaches and are presented as reference tables useful for historic male and female Italian samples. The age ranges produced from each approach were tested on an historic Italian sample, using cumulative binomial tests. These two approaches performed similarly, with the Forensic approach showing a slight advantage. However, the Forensic approach is unable to identify varying senescence patterns between populations, thus preference for one approach over the other will depend on research design. Finally, we demonstrate that while populations exhibit similar morphological changes with advancing age, there are no significant sex differences in these samples, and the timing of these changes varies from population to population.

  17. Estimated prevalence of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in a sample of Panamanian school-aged children.

    PubMed

    Sánchez, Emelyn Y; Velarde, Silvia; Britton, Gabrielle B

    2011-04-01

    The present study investigated the prevalence of ADHD in a school sample of children ages 6-11 years in the city of Panama. The assessment battery included the Conners' Parent and Teacher Rating Scales, the Structured Developmental History of the Behavioral Assessment System for Children (BASC-2), and the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (WISC-III). The prevalence of ADHD (N = 229) was 7.4%, with an estimate of 1.8% for the predominantly inattentive subtype, 3.1% for the predominantly hyperactive/impulsive subtype, and 2.6% for the combined subtype. The prevalence rate of ADHD is relatively low in Panama compared to those reported for samples in neighboring countries. Moreover, ADHD children were unlikely to have been identified or referred to psychological or special education assessments. Our findings confirm that ADHD is overlooked in some cultures and that a significant number of children with ADHD-related impairments are not receiving optimal intervention. PMID:21127963

  18. Effects of D-mannose on incidence and levels of salmonellae in ceca and carcass samples of market age broilers.

    PubMed

    Izat, A L; Hierholzer, R E; Kopek, J M; Adams, M H; Reiber, M A; McGinnis, J P

    1990-12-01

    Two similar trials were conducted to evaluate the effects of 2.5% d-mannose (DM) in the drinking water of broilers for the first 10 days on incidence and levels of salmonellae in the ceca and on the carcass at market age. Controls received drinking water with no DM. Birds were reared on used litter in floor pens and were inoculated via the drinking water with 10(8) cfu/mL Salmonella typhimurium (ATCC 14028) on Day 3. At 49 days, 60 birds per treatment were processed and the ceca contents and prechill carcass were evaluated for salmonellae incidence by the most probable number (MPN) method. Results were inconclusive: level of salmonellae in the ceca contents and carcass rinse was significantly lower in control samples than in DM samples in one of the two trials; the reverse was true in the other trial.

  19. Social and Physical Environmental Factors and Child Overweight in a Sample of American and Czech School-Aged Children: A Pilot Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Humenikova, Lenka; Gates, Gail E.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To compare environmental factors that influence body mass index for age (BMI-for-age) between a sample of American and Czech school-aged children. Design: Pilot study. A parent questionnaire and school visits were used to collect data from parents and children. Setting: Public schools in 1 American and 2 Czech cities. Participants:…

  20. Modeling Diverse Pathways to Age Progressive Volcanism in Subduction Zones.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kincaid, C. R.; Szwaja, S.; Sylvia, R. T.; Druken, K. A.

    2015-12-01

    One of the best, and most challenging clues to unraveling mantle circulation patterns in subduction zones comes in the form of age progressive volcanic and geochemical trends. Hard fought geological data from many subduction zones, like Tonga-Lau, the Cascades and Costa-Rica/Nicaragua, reveal striking temporal patterns used in defining mantle flow directions and rates. We summarize results from laboratory subduction models showing a range in circulation and thermal-chemical transport processes. These interaction styles are capable of producing such trends, often reflecting apparent instead of actual mantle velocities. Lab experiments use a glucose working fluid to represent Earth's upper mantle and kinematically driven plates to produce a range in slab sinking and related wedge transport patterns. Kinematic forcing assumes most of the super-adiabatic temperature gradient available to drive major downwellings is in the tabular slabs. Moreover, sinking styles for fully dynamic subduction depend on many complicating factors that are only poorly understood and which can vary widely even for repeated parameter combinations. Kinematic models have the benefit of precise, repeatable control of slab motions and wedge flow responses. Results generated with these techniques show the evolution of near-surface thermal-chemical-rheological heterogeneities leads to age progressive surface expressions in a variety of ways. One set of experiments shows that rollback and back-arc extension combine to produce distinct modes of linear, age progressive melt delivery to the surface through a) erosion of the rheological boundary layer beneath the overriding plate, and deformation and redistribution of both b) mantle residuum produced from decompression melting and c) formerly active, buoyant plumes. Additional experiments consider buoyant diapirs rising in a wedge under the influence of rollback, back-arc spreading and slab-gaps. Strongly deflected diapirs, experiencing variable rise

  1. Multi-Access Education: A Model for Instructional Delivery in the Information Age.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lever-Duffy, Judy

    Although it is evident that the Industrial Age has given way to the Information Age, educational institutions are still using Industrial Age models of instruction that encourage passive learning and stress knowledge mastery. In the media-rich Information Age, educators must shift to instructional models that put learners at the core of both the…

  2. Age-related presence of selected viral and bacterial pathogens in paraffin-embedded lung samples of dogs with pneumonia.

    PubMed

    Wöhrer, Daniela; Spergser, Joachim; Bagrinovschi, Gabriela; Möstl, Karin; Weissenböck, Herbert

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this retrospective study was to detect selected pathogens in pneumonic lung tissue of dogs of different age groups by immunohistochemistry (IHC), in situ hybridisation (ISH) or polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in order to get information about their involvement in pneumonia formation. In archived formalin-fixed and paraffin wax-embedded lung samples from 68 cases with the clinical and histologic diagnosis of pneumonia the histological pattern of pneumonia was re-evaluated and the samples were further investigated for the following infectious agents: canine distemper virus (CDV), canine adenovirus type 2 (CAV-2), canine respiratory coronavirus (CRCoV), Bordetella (B.) bronchiseptica, Pasteurella (P.) multocida, Mycoplasma spp., and Pneumocystis spp. In 47.1% of the samples at least one of the featured respiratory pathogens was detected. In 31.3% of these positive samples more than one pathogen could be found. The correct detection of CDV had been achieved in ten out of eleven positive cases (90.9%) upon initial investigation, but the presence of bacterial pathogens, like B. bronchiseptica (10 cases) and P. multocida (17 cases) had been missed in all but one case. While CDV and CRCoV infections were exclusively found in dogs younger than one year, the vast majority of infections with P. multocida and B. bronchiseptica were both common either in dogs younger than 4 months or older than one year. Thus, this retrospective approach yielded valuable data on the presence, absence and prevalence of certain respiratory pathogens in dogs with pneumonia. PMID:26919147

  3. The Effects of Topography on Shortwave solar radiation modelling: The JGrass-NewAge System way

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abera, Wuletawu; Formetta, Giuseppe; Rigon, Riccardo

    2013-04-01

    space, and, Kriging spatial interpolation techniques has applied to give their spatial structure. Different variogram models were determined to explain the spatial corrologram of parameters over space, and in return, used to estimate spatially distributed parameters using kriging. Jackknife kriging, which is a rekriging of each station by eliminating one sample from the original sample set and then taking the average of the rekriged estimates, has been used to test the practical validity of the model. The method gives better estimation and also resulting with standard deviation as useful indicator of uncertainty associated with station estimates. This analysis helps to understand spatial variability of radiative transmittance with position, height, aspect, slope and other topographic features. Two basin shortwave radiation data set (one in flat topography and the other in mountainous topography) are used to test statistical analysis of the modeling components of JGrass-NewAGE model systems.

  4. Automated biowaste sampling system, solids subsystem operating model, part 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fogal, G. L.; Mangialardi, J. K.; Stauffer, R. E.

    1973-01-01

    The detail design and fabrication of the Solids Subsystem were implemented. The system's capacity for the collection, storage or sampling of feces and vomitus from six subjects was tested and verified.

  5. The development of a new analytical model for the identification of saccharide binders in paint samples.

    PubMed

    Lluveras-Tenorio, Anna; Mazurek, Joy; Restivo, Annalaura; Colombini, Maria Perla; Bonaduce, Ilaria

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes a method for reliably identifying saccharide materials in paintings. Since the 3(rd) millennium B.C., polysaccharide materials such as plant gums, sugar, flour, and honey were used as binding media and sizing agents in paintings, illuminated manuscripts, and polychrome objects. Although it has been reported that plant gums have a stable composition, their identification in paint samples is often doubtful and rarely discussed. Our research was carried out independently at two different laboratories: the Getty Conservation Institute in Los Angeles, USA (GCI) and the Department of Chemistry and Industrial Chemistry of the University of Pisa, Italy (DCCI). It was shown in a previous stage of this research that the two methods give highly comparable data when analysing both reference paint samples and paint layers from art objects, thus the combined data was used to build a large database. In this study, the simultaneous presence of proteinaceous binders and pigments in fresh and artificially aged paint replicas was investigated, and it highlighted how these can affect the sugar profile of arabic, tragacanth, and fruit tree gums. The environmental contamination due to sugars from various plant tissues is also discussed. The results allowed the development of a new model for the reliable identification of saccharide binders in paintings based on the evaluation of markers that are stable to ageing and unaffected by pigments. This new model was applied to the sugar profiles obtained from the analysis of a large number of samples from murals, easel paintings, manuscripts, and polychrome objects from different geographical areas and dating from the 13(th) century BC to the 20(th) century AD, thus demonstrating its reliability.

  6. The Development of a New Analytical Model for the Identification of Saccharide Binders in Paint Samples

    PubMed Central

    Restivo, Annalaura; Colombini, Maria Perla; Bonaduce, Ilaria

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes a method for reliably identifying saccharide materials in paintings. Since the 3rd millennium B.C., polysaccharide materials such as plant gums, sugar, flour, and honey were used as binding media and sizing agents in paintings, illuminated manuscripts, and polychrome objects. Although it has been reported that plant gums have a stable composition, their identification in paint samples is often doubtful and rarely discussed. Our research was carried out independently at two different laboratories: the Getty Conservation Institute in Los Angeles, USA (GCI) and the Department of Chemistry and Industrial Chemistry of the University of Pisa, Italy (DCCI). It was shown in a previous stage of this research that the two methods give highly comparable data when analysing both reference paint samples and paint layers from art objects, thus the combined data was used to build a large database. In this study, the simultaneous presence of proteinaceous binders and pigments in fresh and artificially aged paint replicas was investigated, and it highlighted how these can affect the sugar profile of arabic, tragacanth, and fruit tree gums. The environmental contamination due to sugars from various plant tissues is also discussed. The results allowed the development of a new model for the reliable identification of saccharide binders in paintings based on the evaluation of markers that are stable to ageing and unaffected by pigments. This new model was applied to the sugar profiles obtained from the analysis of a large number of samples from murals, easel paintings, manuscripts, and polychrome objects from different geographical areas and dating from the 13th century BC to the 20th century AD, thus demonstrating its reliability. PMID:23166654

  7. Modeling age-of-onset: Cox model with latent major gene effects

    SciTech Connect

    Li, H.; Thompson, E.A.

    1994-09-01

    Analysis of age-of-onset is a key factor in the segregation and linkage analysis of complex genetic traits, but is complicated by the censoring of unaffected individuals. Most previous work has used parametric distributional assumptions, but it is hard to characterize the distribution of age-of-onset by a single distribution. Other approaches discretize age-of-onset and use logistic regression to model incidence; this approach does not use the information fully. Frailty models have been used for age-of-oset in the biostatistics literature, but these models do not lend themselves to modeling the correlations due to genetic effects which segregate within a family. Here, we propose use of the Cox model with latent major gene effects; conditional on the major genotypes, Cox`s proportional hazards model is used for age-of-onset for each individual. This is a semiparametric model; we do not specify the baseline hazard function. Likelihood analysis of such models is restricted by the difficulty in evaluating of maximizing the likelihood, especially when data are available for some of the members of an extended pedigree. Markov chain Monte Carlo permits genotypic configurations to be realized from the posterior distributions given a current model and the observed data. Hence methods for likelihood analysis can be developed: Monte Carlo EM is used for estimation of the parameters and their variance-covariance matrix. Markers and observed covariates are easily incorporated into this analysis. We present the model, methods for likelihood analysis and the results of a simulation study. The results are comparable with those based on a Cox model with known genotypic dependence in a pedigree. An early-onset Alzheimer`s pedigree and some breast cancer pedigrees have been used as real data examples. Some possible extensions are also discussed.

  8. Age, sex, and racial differences in harsh physical punishment: results from a nationally representative United States sample.

    PubMed

    Taillieu, Tamara L; Afifi, Tracie O; Mota, Natalie; Keyes, Katherine M; Sareen, Jitender

    2014-12-01

    The purpose of this research was to examine age, sex, and racial differences in the prevalence of harsh physical punishment in childhood in a nationally representative sample of the United States. Data were from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) collected in 2004 and 2005 (n=34,653). Logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine age, sex, and racial differences in the prevalence of harsh physical punishment. Results suggest that the prevalence of harsh physical punishment has been decreasing among more recently born age groups; however, there appear to be sex and racial differences in this trend over time. The magnitude of the decrease appears to be stronger for males than for females. By race, the decrease in harsh physical punishment over time is only apparent among Whites; Black participants demonstrate little change over time, and harsh physical punishment seems to be increasing over time among Hispanics. Prevention and intervention efforts that educate about the links of physical punishment to negative outcomes and alternative non-physical discipline strategies may be particularly useful in reducing the prevalence of harsh physical punishment over time.

  9. Acrylamide induces accelerated endothelial aging in a human cell model.

    PubMed

    Sellier, Cyril; Boulanger, Eric; Maladry, François; Tessier, Frédéric J; Lorenzi, Rodrigo; Nevière, Rémi; Desreumaux, Pierre; Beuscart, Jean-Baptiste; Puisieux, François; Grossin, Nicolas

    2015-09-01

    Acrylamide (AAM) has been recently discovered in food as a Maillard reaction product. AAM and glycidamide (GA), its metabolite, have been described as probably carcinogenic to humans. It is widely established that senescence and carcinogenicity are closely related. In vitro, endothelial aging is characterized by replicative senescence in which primary cells in culture lose their ability to divide. Our objective was to assess the effects of AAM and GA on human endothelial cell senescence. Human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs) cultured in vitro were used as model. HUVECs were cultured over 3 months with AAM or GA (1, 10 or 100 μM) until growth arrest. To analyze senescence, β-galactosidase activity and telomere length of HUVECs were measured by cytometry and semi-quantitative PCR, respectively. At all tested concentrations, AAM or GA reduced cell population doubling compared to the control condition (p < 0.001). β-galactosidase activity in endothelial cells was increased when exposed to AAM (≥10 μM) or GA (≥1 μM) (p < 0.05). AAM (≥10 μM) or GA (100 μM) accelerated telomere shortening in HUVECs (p < 0.05). In conclusion, in vitro chronic exposure to AAM or GA at low concentrations induces accelerated senescence. This result suggests that an exposure to AAM might contribute to endothelial aging.

  10. Evaluating Small Sample Approaches for Model Test Statistics in Structural Equation Modeling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nevitt, Jonathan

    Structural equation modeling (SEM) attempts to remove the negative influence of measurement error and allows for investigation of relationships at the level of the underlying constructs of interest. SEM has been regarded as a "large sample" technique since its inception. Recent developments in SEM, some of which are currently available in popular…

  11. Age and structure of a model vapour-deposited glass

    PubMed Central

    Reid, Daniel R.; Lyubimov, Ivan; Ediger, M. D.; de Pablo, Juan J.

    2016-01-01

    Glass films prepared by a process of physical vapour deposition have been shown to have thermodynamic and kinetic stability comparable to those of ordinary glasses aged for thousands of years. A central question in the study of vapour-deposited glasses, particularly in light of new knowledge regarding anisotropy in these materials, is whether the ultra-stable glassy films formed by vapour deposition are ever equivalent to those obtained by liquid cooling. Here we present a computational study of vapour deposition for a two-dimensional glass forming liquid using a methodology, which closely mimics experiment. We find that for the model considered here, structures that arise in vapour-deposited materials are statistically identical to those observed in ordinary glasses, provided the two are compared at the same inherent structure energy. We also find that newly deposited hot molecules produce cascades of hot particles that propagate far into the film, possibly influencing the relaxation of the material. PMID:27762262

  12. Ploidy, sex and crossing over in an evolutionary aging model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobo, Matheus P.; Onody, Roberto N.

    2006-02-01

    Nowadays, many forms of reproduction coexist in nature: Asexual, sexual, apomictic and meiotic parthenogenesis, hermaphroditism and parasex. The mechanisms of their evolution and what made them successful reproductive alternatives are very challenging and debated questions. Here, using a simple evolutionary aging model, we give a possible scenario. By studying the performance of populations where individuals may have diverse characteristics-different ploidies, sex with or without crossing over, as well as the absence of sex-we find an evolution sequence that may explain why there are actually two major or leading groups: Sexual and asexual. We also investigate the dependence of these characteristics on different conditions of fertility and deleterious mutations. Finally, if the primeval organisms on Earth were, in fact, asexual individuals we conjecture that the sexual form of reproduction could have more easily been set and found its niche during a period of low-intensity mutations.

  13. Birth Weight, Birth Length, and Gestational Age as Indicators of Favorable Fetal Growth Conditions in a US Sample

    PubMed Central

    Bollen, Kenneth A.

    2016-01-01

    The “fetal origins” hypothesis suggests that fetal conditions not only affect birth characteristics such as birth weight and gestational age, but also have lifelong health implications. Despite widespread interest in this hypothesis, few methodological advances have been proposed to improve the measurement and modeling of fetal conditions. A Statistics in Medicine paper by Bollen, Noble, and Adair examined favorable fetal growth conditions (FFGC) as a latent variable. Their study of Filipino children from Cebu provided evidence consistent with treating FFGC as a latent variable that largely mediates the effects of mother’s characteristics on birth weight, birth length, and gestational age. This innovative method may have widespread utility, but only if the model applies equally well across diverse settings. Our study assesses whether the FFGC model of Cebu replicates and generalizes to a very different population of children from North Carolina (N = 705) and Pennsylvania (N = 494). Using a series of structural equation models, we find that key features of the Cebu analysis replicate and generalize while we also highlight differences between these studies. Our results support treating fetal conditions as a latent variable when researchers test the fetal origins hypothesis. In addition to contributing to the substantive literature on measuring fetal conditions, we also discuss the meaning and challenges involved in replicating prior research. PMID:27097023

  14. Birth Weight, Birth Length, and Gestational Age as Indicators of Favorable Fetal Growth Conditions in a US Sample.

    PubMed

    Camerota, Marie; Bollen, Kenneth A

    2016-01-01

    The "fetal origins" hypothesis suggests that fetal conditions not only affect birth characteristics such as birth weight and gestational age, but also have lifelong health implications. Despite widespread interest in this hypothesis, few methodological advances have been proposed to improve the measurement and modeling of fetal conditions. A Statistics in Medicine paper by Bollen, Noble, and Adair examined favorable fetal growth conditions (FFGC) as a latent variable. Their study of Filipino children from Cebu provided evidence consistent with treating FFGC as a latent variable that largely mediates the effects of mother's characteristics on birth weight, birth length, and gestational age. This innovative method may have widespread utility, but only if the model applies equally well across diverse settings. Our study assesses whether the FFGC model of Cebu replicates and generalizes to a very different population of children from North Carolina (N=705) and Pennsylvania (N=494). Using a series of structural equation models, we find that key features of the Cebu analysis replicate and generalize while we also highlight differences between these studies. Our results support treating fetal conditions as a latent variable when researchers test the fetal origins hypothesis. In addition to contributing to the substantive literature on measuring fetal conditions, we also discuss the meaning and challenges involved in replicating prior research. PMID:27097023

  15. A flexible pinhole camera model for coherent nonuniform sampling.

    PubMed

    Popescu, Voicu; Benes, Bedrich; Rosen, Paul; Cui, Jian; Wang, Lili

    2014-01-01

    The flexible pinhole camera (FPC) allows flexible modulation of the sampling rate over the field of view. The FPC is defined by a viewpoint and a map specifying the sampling locations on the image plane. The map is constructed from known regions of interest with interactive and automatic approaches. The FPC provides inexpensive 3D projection that allows rendering complex datasets quickly, in feed-forward fashion, by projection followed by rasterization. The FPC supports many types of data, including image, height field, geometry, and volume data. The resulting image is a coherent nonuniform sampling (CoNUS) of the dataset that matches the local variation of the dataset's importance. CoNUS images have been successfully implemented for remote visualization, focus-plus-context visualization, and acceleration of expensive rendering effects such as surface geometric detail and specular reflection. A video explaining and demonstrating the FPC is at http://youtu.be/kvFe5XjOPNM.

  16. Micro-electro-mechanical systems/near-infrared validation of different sampling modes and sample sets coupled with multiple models.

    PubMed

    Wu, Zhisheng; Shi, Xinyuan; Wan, Guang; Xu, Manfei; Zhan, Xueyan; Qiao, Yanjiang

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to demonstrate the reliability of micro-electro-mechanical systems/near-infrared technology by investigating analytical models of two modes of sampling (integrating sphere and fiber optic probe modes) and different sample sets. Baicalin in Yinhuang tablets was used as an example, and the experimental procedure included the optimization of spectral pretreatments, selection of wavelength regions using interval partial least squares, moving window partial least squares, and validation of the method using an accuracy profile. The results demonstrated that models that use the integrating sphere mode are better than those that use fiber optic probe modes. Spectra that use fiber optic probe modes tend to be more susceptible to interference information because the intensity of the incident light on a fiber optic probe mode is significantly weaker than that on an integrating sphere mode. According to the test set validation result of the method parameters, such as accuracy, precision, risk, and linearity, the selection of variables was found to make no significant difference to the performance of the full spectral model. The performance of the models whose sample sets ranged widely in concentration (i.e., 1-4 %) was found to be better than that of models whose samples had relatively narrow ranges (i.e., 1-2 %). The establishment and validation of this method can be used to clarify the analytical guideline in Chinese herbal medicine about two sampling modes and different sample sets in the micro-electro-mechanical systems/near-infrared technique.

  17. The topomer-sampling model of protein folding

    PubMed Central

    Debe, Derek A.; Carlson, Matt J.; Goddard, William A.

    1999-01-01

    Clearly, a protein cannot sample all of its conformations (e.g., ≈3100 ≈ 1048 for a 100 residue protein) on an in vivo folding timescale (<1 s). To investigate how the conformational dynamics of a protein can accommodate subsecond folding time scales, we introduce the concept of the native topomer, which is the set of all structures similar to the native structure (obtainable from the native structure through local backbone coordinate transformations that do not disrupt the covalent bonding of the peptide backbone). We have developed a computational procedure for estimating the number of distinct topomers required to span all conformations (compact and semicompact) for a polypeptide of a given length. For 100 residues, we find ≈3 × 107 distinct topomers. Based on the distance calculated between different topomers, we estimate that a 100-residue polypeptide diffusively samples one topomer every ≈3 ns. Hence, a 100-residue protein can find its native topomer by random sampling in just ≈100 ms. These results suggest that subsecond folding of modest-sized, single-domain proteins can be accomplished by a two-stage process of (i) topomer diffusion: random, diffusive sampling of the 3 × 107 distinct topomers to find the native topomer (≈0.1 s), followed by (ii) intratopomer ordering: nonrandom, local conformational rearrangements within the native topomer to settle into the precise native state. PMID:10077555

  18. Towards an evidence-based model of aging.

    PubMed

    Katcher, Harold L

    2015-01-01

    The modern synthesis or evolutionary theory of aging assumes that aging results from the accumulation of errors or damages at the cellular level through the inadequacies of an organism's repair and maintenance machinery. The demonstration of cellular and organic rejuvenation requires the hypothesis that aging is the result of irreparable damage to be rejected. I will propose basic principles of mammalian aging based only on experimental data, without imposing the constraints of evolutionary theory. Consideration of the results of experiment suggests that fundamental assumptions about cell and organ aging being autonomous process, and about the centrality of cellular aging in organismic aging are wrong. The derived principles indicate that exogenous control of age-phenotype at cellular and higher levels of biological organization is possible. PMID:26054348

  19. An Importance Sampling EM Algorithm for Latent Regression Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    von Davier, Matthias; Sinharay, Sandip

    2007-01-01

    Reporting methods used in large-scale assessments such as the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) rely on latent regression models. To fit the latent regression model using the maximum likelihood estimation technique, multivariate integrals must be evaluated. In the computer program MGROUP used by the Educational Testing Service for…

  20. Sensitivity analysis of the age-structured malaria transmission model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Addawe, Joel M.; Lope, Jose Ernie C.

    2012-09-01

    We propose an age-structured malaria transmission model and perform sensitivity analyses to determine the relative importance of model parameters to disease transmission. We subdivide the human population into two: preschool humans (below 5 years) and the rest of the human population (above 5 years). We then consider two sets of baseline parameters, one for areas of high transmission and the other for areas of low transmission. We compute the sensitivity indices of the reproductive number and the endemic equilibrium point with respect to the two sets of baseline parameters. Our simulations reveal that in areas of either high or low transmission, the reproductive number is most sensitive to the number of bites by a female mosquito on the rest of the human population. For areas of low transmission, we find that the equilibrium proportion of infectious pre-school humans is most sensitive to the number of bites by a female mosquito. For the rest of the human population it is most sensitive to the rate of acquiring temporary immunity. In areas of high transmission, the equilibrium proportion of infectious pre-school humans and the rest of the human population are both most sensitive to the birth rate of humans. This suggests that strategies that target the mosquito biting rate on pre-school humans and those that shortens the time in acquiring immunity can be successful in preventing the spread of malaria.

  1. Oxidative Stress, Aging and CNS disease in the Canine Model of Human Brain Aging

    PubMed Central

    Head, Elizabeth; Rofina, Jaime; Zicker, Steven

    2008-01-01

    SYNOPSIS Decline in cognitive functions that accompany aging in dogs may have a biological basis, and many of the disorders associated with aging in canines may be mitigated through dietary modifications that incorporate specific nutraceuticals. Based on previous research and the results of both laboratory and clinical studies – antioxidants may be one class of nutraceutical that provides benefits to aged dogs. Brains of aged dogs accumulate oxidative damage to proteins and lipids, which may lead to dysfunction of neuronal cells. The production of free radicals and lack of increase in compensatory antioxidant enzymes may lead to detrimental modifications to important macromolecules within neurons. Reducing oxidative damage through food ingredients rich in a broad spectrum of antioxidants significantly improves, or slows the decline of, learning and memory in aged dogs. However, determining all effective compounds and combinations, dosage ranges, as well as when to initiate intervention and long term effects constitute gaps in our current knowledge. PMID:18249248

  2. Oxidative stress, aging, and central nervous system disease in the canine model of human brain aging.

    PubMed

    Head, Elizabeth; Rofina, Jaime; Zicker, Steven

    2008-01-01

    Decline in cognitive functions that accompany aging in dogs may have a biologic basis, and many of the disorders associated with aging in dogs may be mitigated through dietary modifications that incorporate specific nutraceuticals. Based on previous research and the results of laboratory and clinical studies, antioxidants may be one class of nutraceutical that provides benefits to aged dogs. Brains of aged dogs accumulate oxidative damage to proteins and lipids, which may lead to dysfunction of neuronal cells. The production of free radicals and lack of increase in compensatory antioxidant enzymes may lead to detrimental modifications to important macromolecules within neurons. Reducing oxidative damage through food ingredients rich in a broad spectrum of antioxidants significantly improves, or slows the decline of, learning and memory in aged dogs.

  3. Olfactory delayed matching to sample performance in mice: sex differences in the 5XFAD mouse model of Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Roddick, Kyle M; Schellinck, Heather M; Brown, Richard E

    2014-08-15

    While olfactory delayed matching-to-sample tasks have been used to assess working memory in rats, no such tasks have been tested in mice. Olfactory delayed matching-to-sample learning was assessed in male and female 5XFAD mice, a model of Alzheimer's disease, and their wildtype (B6SJL F1) littermates at 6-7 months of age using an operant olfactometer. All 5XFAD and wildtype mice were able to learn the delayed olfactory matching-to-sample task at 2 and 5s delays. Fewer mice learned with a 10s delay and only one mouse learned with a 30s delay. Female mice showed higher levels of performance on the delayed matching-to-sample task than males, indicative of better working memory. These results demonstrate for the first time that mice are able to learn an olfactory delayed matching to sample task.

  4. Visual Sample Plan (VSP) Models and Code Verification

    SciTech Connect

    Gilbert, Richard O.; Davidson, James R.; Wilson, John E.; Pulsipher, Brent A.

    2001-03-06

    VSP is an easy to use, visual and graphic software tool being developed to select the right number and location of environmental samples so that the results of statistical tests performed to provide input to environmental decisions have the required confidence and performance. It is a significant help for implementing the 6th and 7th steps of the Data Quality Objectives (DQO) planning process ("Specify Tolerable Limits on Decision Errors" and "Optimize the Design for Obtaining Data," respectively).

  5. Age model for a continuous, ca 250-ka Quaternary lacustrine record from Bear Lake, Utah-Idaho

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Colman, Steven M.; Kaufman, D.S.; Bright, Jordon; Heil, C.; King, J.W.; Dean, W.E.; Rosenbaum, J.G.; Forester, R.M.; Bischoff, J.L.; Perkins, Marie; McGeehin, J.P.

    2006-01-01

    The Quaternary sediments sampled by continuous 120-m-long drill cores from Bear Lake (Utah-Idaho) comprise one of the longest lacustrine sequences recovered from an extant lake. The cores serve as a good case study for the construction of an age model for sequences that extend beyond the range of radiocarbon dating. From a variety of potential age indicators, we selected a combination of radiocarbon ages, one magnetic excursion (correlated to a standard sequence), and a single Uranium-series age to develop an initial data set. The reliability of the excursion and U-series data require consideration of their position with respect to sediments of inferred interglacial character, but not direct correlation with other paleoclimate records. Data omitted from the age model include amino acid age estimates, which have a large amount of scatter, and tephrochronology correlations, which have relatively large uncertainties. Because the initial data set was restricted to the upper half of the BL00-1 core, we inferred additional ages by direct correlation to the independently dated paleoclimate record from Devils Hole. We developed an age model for the entire core using statistical methods that consider both the uncertainties of the original data and that of the curve-fitting process, with a combination of our initial data set and the climate correlations as control points. This age model represents our best estimate of the chronology of deposition in Bear Lake. Because the age model contains assumptions about the correlation of Bear Lake to other climate records, the model cannot be used to address some paleoclimate questions, such as phase relationships with other areas.

  6. Anomalous diffusion, localization, aging, and subaging effects in trap models at very low temperature.

    PubMed

    Monthus, Cécile

    2003-09-01

    We study in detail the dynamics of the one-dimensional symmetric trap model via a real-space renormalization procedure which becomes exact in the limit of zero temperature. In this limit, the diffusion front in each sample consists of two delta peaks, which are completely out of equilibrium with each other. The statistics of the positions and weights of these delta peaks over the samples allows to obtain explicit results for all observables in the limit T-->0. We first compute disorder averages of one-time observables, such as the diffusion front, the thermal width, the localization parameters, the two-particle correlation function, and the generating function of thermal cumulants of the position. We then study aging and subaging effects: our approach reproduces very simply the two different aging exponents and yields explicit forms for scaling functions of the various two-time correlations. We also extend the real-space renormalization group method to include systematic corrections to the previous zero temperature procedure via a series expansion in T. We then consider the generalized trap model with parameter alpha in [0,1] and obtain that the large scale effective model at low temperature does not depend on alpha in any dimension, so that the only observables sensitive to alpha are those that measure the "local persistence," such as the probability to remain exactly in the same trap during a time interval. Finally, we extend our approach at a scaling level for the trap model in d=2 and obtain the two relevant time scales for aging properties.

  7. Childhood trauma and suicide risk in a sample of young individuals aged 14-35 years in southern Brazil.

    PubMed

    Barbosa, Luana Porto; Quevedo, Luciana; da Silva, Giovanna Del Grande; Jansen, Karen; Pinheiro, Ricardo Tavares; Branco, Jerônimo; Lara, Diogo; Oses, Jean; da Silva, Ricardo Azevedo

    2014-07-01

    Suicide is among the main causes of death of people aged between 15 and 44 years old. Childhood trauma is an important risk factor for suicide. Hence, the objective of this study was to verify the relationship between childhood trauma and current suicide risk (suicidal behavior and ideation) in individuals aged 14-35 years, in the city of Pelotas, Brazil. This is a cross-sectional, population-based study. Sample selection was performed by clusters. Suicide risk was evaluated using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) and Childhood trauma was assessed with the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ). Moreover, the participants responded to a questionnaire concerning socioeconomic status, work, and substance use. The sample was composed of 1,380 individuals. The prevalence of suicide risk was 11.5%. The prevalence figures of childhood trauma were 15.2% (emotional neglect), 13.5% (physical neglect), 7.6% (sexual abuse), 10.1% (physical abuse), and 13.8% (emotional abuse). Suicide risk was associated (p<.001) with gender, work, alcohol abuse, tobacco use, and all types of childhood trauma. The odds of suicide risk were higher in women (OR=1.8), people who were not currently working (OR=2.3), individuals who presented alcohol abuse (OR=2.6), and among tobacco smokers (OR=3.4). Moreover, suicide risk was increased in all types of trauma: emotional neglect (OR=3.7), physical neglect (OR=2.8), sexual abuse (OR=3.4), physical abuse (OR=3.1), and emotional abuse (OR=6.6). Thus, preventing early trauma may reduce suicide risk in young individuals.

  8. Hybrid nested sampling algorithm for Bayesian model selection applied to inverse subsurface flow problems

    SciTech Connect

    Elsheikh, Ahmed H.; Wheeler, Mary F.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2014-02-01

    A Hybrid Nested Sampling (HNS) algorithm is proposed for efficient Bayesian model calibration and prior model selection. The proposed algorithm combines, Nested Sampling (NS) algorithm, Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling and gradient estimation using Stochastic Ensemble Method (SEM). NS is an efficient sampling algorithm that can be used for Bayesian calibration and estimating the Bayesian evidence for prior model selection. Nested sampling has the advantage of computational feasibility. Within the nested sampling algorithm, a constrained sampling step is performed. For this step, we utilize HMC to reduce the correlation between successive sampled states. HMC relies on the gradient of the logarithm of the posterior distribution, which we estimate using a stochastic ensemble method based on an ensemble of directional derivatives. SEM only requires forward model runs and the simulator is then used as a black box and no adjoint code is needed. The developed HNS algorithm is successfully applied for Bayesian calibration and prior model selection of several nonlinear subsurface flow problems.

  9. Victim age-based subtypes of juveniles adjudicated for sexual offenses: comparisons across domains in an outpatient sample.

    PubMed

    Fanniff, Amanda M; Kolko, David J

    2012-06-01

    Adolescents adjudicated for sexual offenses are a heterogeneous group. The identification of more homogeneous subgroups of offenders may enable improved treatment, as the specific risks and needs presented by each group could be more effectively targeted. The current study examines three subgroups derived based on the age of victim(s), a popular method of subtyping that has mixed empirical support, using a sample of 176 males adjudicated for a sexual offense and court-ordered to participate in a community-based collaborative intervention program that integrates treatment and probationary services. Differences expected between groups based on theories regarding victim-age based subtypes are examined, in addition to differences consistently identified in prior research. Results indicate that these three subgroups are more similar than different, although some expected differences were found. Juveniles with child victims were more likely to have male victims and biologically related victims. Juveniles with peer/adult victims were more likely to have poor monitoring by their parents and more likely to have been arrested again. Juveniles with mixed types of victims appeared similar to juveniles with child victims on some variables and similar to those with peer/adult victims on others. Treatment implications and future directions for research are discussed. Typologies based on clinical characteristics of the youth rather than offense characteristics may have more promise for identifying meaningful subgroups.

  10. A potential impact of DNA repair on ageing and lifespan in the ageing model organism Podospora anserina: decrease in mitochondrial DNA repair activity during ageing.

    PubMed

    Soerensen, Mette; Gredilla, Ricardo; Müller-Ohldach, Mathis; Werner, Alexandra; Bohr, Vilhelm A; Osiewacz, Heinz D; Stevnsner, Tinna

    2009-08-01

    The free radical theory of ageing states that ROS play a key role in age-related decrease in mitochondrial function via the damage of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), proteins and lipids. In the sexually reproducing ascomycete Podospora anserina ageing is, as in other eukaryotes, associated with mtDNA instability and mitochondrial dysfunction. Part of the mtDNA instabilities may arise due to accumulation of ROS induced mtDNA lesions, which, as previously suggested for mammals, may be caused by an age-related decrease in base excision repair (BER). Alignments of known BER protein sequences with the P. anserina genome revealed high homology. We report for the first time the presence of BER activities in P. anserina mitochondrial extracts. DNA glycosylase activities decrease with age, suggesting that the increased mtDNA instability with age may be caused by decreased ability to repair mtDNA damage and hence contribute to ageing and lifespan control in this ageing model. Additionally, we find low DNA glycosylase activities in the long-lived mutants grisea and DeltaPaCox17::ble, which are characterized by low mitochondrial ROS generation. Overall, our data identify a potential role of mtDNA repair in controlling ageing and life span in P. anserina, a mechanism possibly regulated in response to ROS levels.

  11. Application of third molar development and eruption models in estimating dental age in Malay sub-adults.

    PubMed

    Mohd Yusof, Mohd Yusmiaidil Putera; Cauwels, Rita; Deschepper, Ellen; Martens, Luc

    2015-08-01

    The third molar development (TMD) has been widely utilized as one of the radiographic method for dental age estimation. By using the same radiograph of the same individual, third molar eruption (TME) information can be incorporated to the TMD regression model. This study aims to evaluate the performance of dental age estimation in individual method models and the combined model (TMD and TME) based on the classic regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. A sample of 705 digital panoramic radiographs of Malay sub-adults aged between 14.1 and 23.8 years was collected. The techniques described by Gleiser and Hunt (modified by Kohler) and Olze were employed to stage the TMD and TME, respectively. The data was divided to develop three respective models based on the two regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. The trained models were then validated on the test sample and the accuracy of age prediction was compared between each model. The coefficient of determination (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE) were calculated. In both genders, adjusted R² yielded an increment in the linear regressions of combined model as compared to the individual models. The overall decrease in RMSE was detected in combined model as compared to TMD (0.03-0.06) and TME (0.2-0.8). In principal component regression, low value of adjusted R(2) and high RMSE except in male were exhibited in combined model. Dental age estimation is better predicted using combined model in multiple linear regression models. PMID:26165657

  12. Application of third molar development and eruption models in estimating dental age in Malay sub-adults.

    PubMed

    Mohd Yusof, Mohd Yusmiaidil Putera; Cauwels, Rita; Deschepper, Ellen; Martens, Luc

    2015-08-01

    The third molar development (TMD) has been widely utilized as one of the radiographic method for dental age estimation. By using the same radiograph of the same individual, third molar eruption (TME) information can be incorporated to the TMD regression model. This study aims to evaluate the performance of dental age estimation in individual method models and the combined model (TMD and TME) based on the classic regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. A sample of 705 digital panoramic radiographs of Malay sub-adults aged between 14.1 and 23.8 years was collected. The techniques described by Gleiser and Hunt (modified by Kohler) and Olze were employed to stage the TMD and TME, respectively. The data was divided to develop three respective models based on the two regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. The trained models were then validated on the test sample and the accuracy of age prediction was compared between each model. The coefficient of determination (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE) were calculated. In both genders, adjusted R² yielded an increment in the linear regressions of combined model as compared to the individual models. The overall decrease in RMSE was detected in combined model as compared to TMD (0.03-0.06) and TME (0.2-0.8). In principal component regression, low value of adjusted R(2) and high RMSE except in male were exhibited in combined model. Dental age estimation is better predicted using combined model in multiple linear regression models.

  13. Substantial effects of apolipoprotein E ε4 on memory decline in very old age: longitudinal findings from a population-based sample.

    PubMed

    Praetorius, Marcus; Thorvaldsson, Valgeir; Hassing, Linda B; Johansson, Boo

    2013-12-01

    We examined associations between the apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 allele and levels of performance and rates of change in cognition in late life taking incident dementia into account. The sample consisted of 482 nondemented individuals, aged 80 years and older at baseline, drawn from the OCTO twin study. A battery of 10 cognitive tests was administered at 5 occasions with measurements intervals of 2 years. We fitted hierarchical linear models with time specified as time to death and controlled for baseline age, sex, education, stroke, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes, and incident dementia. The ε4 allele was significantly associated with lower levels of performance or steeper rate of decline in all 7 memory tests. Largest effect sizes were found in tests of delayed recall and recognition memory. The effects of the APOE ε4 allele were, however, reduced to a nonsignificant level in all tests except 1 after accounting for incident dementia. The findings support the notion that the APOE ε4 allele is associated with substantial memory decline in very old age, but as expected, the effect is largely related to incident dementia.

  14. Constraining age and rate of deformation in the northern Bolivian Andes from cross sections, cooling ages, and thermokinematic modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McQuarrie, N.; Ehlers, T. A.; Rak, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    A critical component in assessing the viability of proposed plate tectonic or geodynamic processes in regions of convergence is the expected or predicted age and rate of deformation in the overriding plate. Commonly, age of deformation is inferred through geochronology of foreland basin and wedge-top sedimentary rocks and bedrock thermochronometer cooling signals. In Bolivia the original pulse of deformation of the fold-thrust belt is argue to be as young as 38-25 Ma based on the age of synorogenic strata or as old as 65-45 Ma due to proposed foreland basin rocks deposited in the Bolivian Altiplano. The large discrepancies in proposed age, rate and magnitude of deformation through the Bolivian Andes limit our ability to relate age and rate of shortening to internal geodynamic or external plate tectonic processes. We evaluate permissible ranges in age of initiation and rate of deformation through a forward kinematic model of the northern Bolivian fold-thrust belt. Each step of deformation accounts for isostatic loading from thrust faults and subsequent erosional of structural highs. The kinematic model predicts an evolution of flexural basins into which synorogenic sediments are deposited allowing us to fully integrate age of exhumation and deposition to age and magnitude of deformation. By assigning an age to each deformation step, we create a range of velocity vectors that are input into the thermokinematic model Pecube, which predicts thermochronometer cooling histories based on kinematics, topography, thermal parameters and shortening rates. We match the pattern of predicted ages with the across strike pattern of measured zircon fission track, apatite fission track and apatite (U-Th)/ He cooling ages. The sensitivity of modeled thermochronologic data to the age at which deformation initiates indicate that northern Bolivian EC started deforming at 50 Ma and may have begun as early as 55 Ma. The acceptable velocity envelope for the modeled section permits either a

  15. Sample Size Determination for Regression Models Using Monte Carlo Methods in R

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beaujean, A. Alexander

    2014-01-01

    A common question asked by researchers using regression models is, What sample size is needed for my study? While there are formulae to estimate sample sizes, their assumptions are often not met in the collected data. A more realistic approach to sample size determination requires more information such as the model of interest, strength of the…

  16. A Note on Sample Size and Solution Propriety for Confirmatory Factor Analytic Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jackson, Dennis L.; Voth, Jennifer; Frey, Marc P.

    2013-01-01

    Determining an appropriate sample size for use in latent variable modeling techniques has presented ongoing challenges to researchers. In particular, small sample sizes are known to present concerns over sampling error for the variances and covariances on which model estimation is based, as well as for fit indexes and convergence failures. The…

  17. Ensemble bayesian model averaging using markov chain Monte Carlo sampling

    SciTech Connect

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Diks, Cees G H; Clark, Martyn P

    2008-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a statistical method to calibrate forecast ensembles from numerical weather models. Successful implementation of BMA however, requires accurate estimates of the weights and variances of the individual competing models in the ensemble. In their seminal paper (Raftery etal. Mon Weather Rev 133: 1155-1174, 2(05)) has recommended the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for BMA model training, even though global convergence of this algorithm cannot be guaranteed. In this paper, we compare the performance of the EM algorithm and the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating the BMA weights and variances. Simulation experiments using 48-hour ensemble data of surface temperature and multi-model stream-flow forecasts show that both methods produce similar results, and that their performance is unaffected by the length of the training data set. However, MCMC simulation with DREAM is capable of efficiently handling a wide variety of BMA predictive distributions, and provides useful information about the uncertainty associated with the estimated BMA weights and variances.

  18. Statistical analysis of biomechanical properties of the adult skull and age-related structural changes by sex in a Japanese forensic sample.

    PubMed

    Torimitsu, Suguru; Nishida, Yoshifumi; Takano, Tachio; Koizumi, Yoshinori; Makino, Yohsuke; Yajima, Daisuke; Hayakawa, Mutsumi; Inokuchi, Go; Motomura, Ayumi; Chiba, Fumiko; Otsuka, Katsura; Kobayashi, Kazuhiro; Odo, Yuriko; Iwase, Hirotaro

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the biomechanical properties of the adult human skull and the structural changes that occur with age in both sexes. The heads of 94 Japanese cadavers (54 male cadavers, 40 female cadavers) autopsied in our department were used in this research. A total of 376 cranial samples, four from each skull, were collected. Sample fracture load was measured by a bending test. A statistically significant negative correlation between the sample fracture load and cadaver age was found. This indicates that the stiffness of cranial bones in Japanese individuals decreases with age, and the risk of skull fracture thus probably increases with age. Prior to the bending test, the sample mass, the sample thickness, the ratio of the sample thickness to cadaver stature (ST/CS), and the sample density were measured and calculated. Significant negative correlations between cadaver age and sample thickness, ST/CS, and the sample density were observed only among the female samples. Computerized tomographic (CT) images of 358 cranial samples were available. The computed tomography value (CT value) of cancellous bone which refers to a quantitative scale for describing radiodensity, cancellous bone thickness and cortical bone thickness were measured and calculated. Significant negative correlation between cadaver age and the CT value or cortical bone thickness was observed only among the female samples. These findings suggest that the skull is substantially affected by decreased bone metabolism resulting from osteoporosis. Therefore, osteoporosis prevention and treatment may increase cranial stiffness and reinforce the skull structure, leading to a decrease in the risk of skull fractures.

  19. Large Sample Hydrology : Building an international sample of watersheds to improve consistency and robustness of model evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mathevet, Thibault; Kumar, Rohini; Gupta, Hoshin; Vaze, Jai; Andréassian, Vazken

    2015-04-01

    This poster introduces the aims of the Large Sample Hydrology working group (LSH-WG) of the new IAHS Panta Rhei decade (2013-2022). The aim of the LSH-WG is to promote large sample hydrology, as discussed by Gupta et al. (2014) and to invite the community to collaborate on building and sharing a comprehensive and representative world-wide sample of watershed datasets. By doing so, LSH will allow the community to work towards 'hydrological consistency' (Martinez and Gupta, 2011) as a basis for hydrologic model development and evaluation, thereby increasing robustness of the model evaluation process. Classical model evaluation metrics based on 'robust statistics' are needed, but clearly not sufficient: multi-criteria assessments based on multiple hydrological signatures can help to better characterize hydrological functioning. Further, large-sample data sets can greatly facilitate: (i) improved understanding through rigorous testing and comparison of competing model hypothesis and structures, (ii) improved robustness of generalizations through statistical analyses that minimize the influence of outliers and case-specific studies, (iii) classification, regionalization and model transfer across a broad diversity of hydrometeorological contexts, and (iv) estimation of predictive uncertainties at a location and across locations (Mathevet et al., 2006; Andréassian et al., 2009; Gupta et al., 2014) References Andréassian, V., Perrin, C., Berthet, L., Le Moine, N., Lerat, J., Loumagne, C., Oudin, L., Mathevet, T., Ramos, M. H., and Valéry, A.: Crash tests for a standardized evaluation of hydrological models, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 1757-1764, 2009. Gupta, H. V., Perrin, C., Blöschl, G., Montanari, A., Kumar, R., Clark, M., and Andréassian, V.: Large-sample hydrology: a need to balance depth with breadth, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 463-477, doi:10.5194/hess-18-463-2014, 2014. Martinez, G. F., and H. V.Gupta (2011), Hydrologic consistency as a basis for

  20. Cancer-related PTSD symptoms in a veteran sample: association with age, combat PTSD, and quality of life

    PubMed Central

    Wachen, Jennifer Schuster; Patidar, Seema M.; Mulligan, Elizabeth A.; Naik, Aanand D.; Moye, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    Objective The diagnosis and treatment of cancer is a potentially traumatic experience that may evoke posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) among survivors. This paper describes the rates of endorsement of cancer-related PTSS along with the relationship of demographic, cancer, and combat variables on PTSS and quality of life. Methods Veterans (N = 166) with head and neck, esophageal, gastric, or colorectal cancers were recruited through tumor registries at two regional Veterans Administration Medical Centers. Standardized scales were used to assess self-report of PTSS, combat, and quality of life. Results Most participants (86%) reported experiencing at least some cancer-related PTSS; 10% scored above a clinical cutoff for probable PTSD. In linear regressions, younger age and current combat PTSS were associated with cancer-related PTSS, whereas disease and treatment characteristics were not; in turn, cancer-related PTSS were negatively associated with physical and social quality of life. Conclusions Individual characteristics and psychosocial factors may play a larger role than disease-related variables in determining how an individual responds to the stress of cancer diagnosis and treatment. Given the rates of reported cancer-related PTSS in this sample, and other non-veteran samples, clinicians should consider screening these following diagnosis and treatment, particularly in younger adults and those with previous trauma histories. PMID:24519893

  1. Exact Tests for the Rasch Model via Sequential Importance Sampling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Yuguo; Small, Dylan

    2005-01-01

    Rasch proposed an exact conditional inference approach to testing his model but never implemented it because it involves the calculation of a complicated probability. This paper furthers Rasch's approach by (1) providing an efficient Monte Carlo methodology for accurately approximating the required probability and (2) illustrating the usefulness…

  2. Red blood cells open promising avenues for longitudinal studies of ageing in laboratory, non-model and wild animals.

    PubMed

    Stier, Antoine; Reichert, Sophie; Criscuolo, Francois; Bize, Pierre

    2015-11-01

    Ageing is characterized by a progressive deterioration of multiple physiological and molecular pathways, which impair organismal performance and increase risks of death with advancing age. Hence, ageing studies must identify physiological and molecular pathways that show signs of age-related deterioration, and test their association with the risk of death and longevity. This approach necessitates longitudinal sampling of the same individuals, and therefore requires a minimally invasive sampling technique that provides access to the larger spectrum of physiological and molecular pathways that are putatively associated with ageing. The present paper underlines the interest in using red blood cells (RBCs) as a promising target for longitudinal studies of ageing in vertebrates. RBCs provide valuable information on the following six pathways: cell maintenance and turnover (RBC number, size, and heterogeneity), glucose homeostasis (RBC glycated haemoglobin), oxidative stress parameters, membrane composition and integrity, mitochondrial functioning, and telomere dynamics. The last two pathways are specific to RBCs of non-mammalian species, which possess a nucleus and functional mitochondria. We present the current knowledge about RBCs and age-dependent changes in these pathways in non-model and wild species that are especially suitable to address questions related to ageing using longitudinal studies. We discuss how the different pathways relate with survival and lifespan and give information on their genetic and environmental determinants to appraise their evolutionary potential.

  3. Ages estimated from a diffusion equation model for scarp degradation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Colman, Steven M.; Watson, K.E.N.

    1983-01-01

    The diffusion equation derived from the continuity equation for hillslopes is applied to scarp erosion in unconsolidated materials. Solutions to this equation allow direct calculation of the product of the rate coefficient and the age of the scarp from measurements of scarp morphology. Where the rate coefficient can be estimated or can be derived from scarps of known age, this method allows direct calculation of unknown ages of scarps.

  4. Looking for disease being a model of human aging

    PubMed Central

    Hausmanowa-Petrusewicz, I; Madej-Pilarczyk, A

    2007-01-01

    Summary This paper is a part of an introduction to authors’ study on systemic laminopathies and their role in human aging. Of special interest is progeria – a type of systemic laminopathy associated usually with mutation 1824 C > T and presenting phenotype of preliminary aging. The authors analyse the differences between the progeria and other syndrome of preliminary aging – Werner’s syndrome. PMID:18421896

  5. Age models for peat deposits on the basis of coupled lead-210 and radiocarbon data.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piotrowska, Natalia; de Vleeschouwer, François; Sikorski, Jarosław; Sensuła, Barbara; Michczyński, Adam; Fiałkiewicz-Kozieł, Barbara; Palowski, Bernard

    2010-05-01

    The study presents three examples of age-model construction based on the results of 210Pb and 14C dating methods applied to peat deposits. The three sites are ombrotrophic peat bogs: the Misten (Belgium), Slowinskie Bloto (N Poland) and Puscizna Mala (S Poland). All sites have been subjected to multiproxy studies aimed at reconstructing paleoenvironment and human activity, covering the last 1500, 1300 and 1800 years, respectively (De Vleeschouwer et al. 2009A, 2009B, in prep., Fialkiewicz-Koziel, ongoing PhD). A detailed comparison between 210Pb and post-bomb 14C results in the Misten bog has also been carried out by Piotrowska et al. (2009). In all cores, the 210Pb activity was calculated using 210Po and 208Po activities after acid-extraction from bulk samples, subsequent deposition on silver discs and measurements by alpha spectrometry. Unsupported 210Pb was detected until 35cm in Slowinskie Bloto, 15cm in the Misten and 19cm in Puscizna Mala. Constant Rate of Supply (CRS) model was then applied to compute ages of each 1-cm core interval. For the Misten and Slowinskie Bloto, radiocarbon measurements were performed on selected aboveground plant macrofossils, mainly Sphagnum spp. or Calluna vulgaris, Erica tetralix, and Andromeda polyfolia. Radiocarbon ages were determined using accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) after acid-alkali-acid wash, combustion, purification of carbon dioxide and graphitisation. For Puscizna Mala bulk samples were dated after chemical preparation of benzene for liquid scintillation counting (LSC) or CO2 for gas proportional counting (GPC). Radiocarbon calibration was undertaken using the Intcal04 calibration curve and OxCal 4 software. As a priori information the 210Pb-derived ages were used in a P_Sequence model (Bronk Ramsey, 2008). A number of dates characterized by low agreement with stratigraphical order had to be considered as outliers and rejected from the final age model. For building a continuous age models a non-linear approach

  6. U.S. Telecommunications and Trade Policies: The Need for an Effective Information Age Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tirman, W. Robert

    This paper examines the need for telecommunications and international trade policies in the Information Age and presents a model for developing such policies. The first of seven sections discusses the need for an Information Age Model, and the technological changes that are giving rise to increasingly integrated Information Age networks are…

  7. Rasch-modeling the Portuguese SOCRATES in a clinical sample.

    PubMed

    Lopes, Paulo; Prieto, Gerardo; Delgado, Ana R; Gamito, Pedro; Trigo, Hélder

    2010-06-01

    The Stages of Change Readiness and Treatment Eagerness Scale (SOCRATES) assesses motivation for treatment in the drug-dependent population. The development of adequate measures of motivation is needed in order to properly understand the role of this construct in rehabilitation. This study probed the psychometric properties of the SOCRATES in the Portuguese population by means of the Rasch Rating Scale Model, which allows the conjoint measurement of items and persons. The participants were 166 substance abusers under treatment for their addiction. Results show that the functioning of the five response categories is not optimal; our re-analysis indicates that a three-category system is the most appropriate one. By using this response category system, both model fit and estimation accuracy are improved. The discussion takes into account other factors such as item format and content in order to make suggestions for the development of better motivation-for-treatment scales.

  8. Modeling compressive reaction and estimating model uncertainty in shock loaded porous samples of Hexanitrostilbene (HNS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brundage, Aaron; Gump, Jared

    2011-06-01

    Neat pressings of HNS powders have been used in many explosive applications for over 50 years. However, characterization of its crystalline properties has lagged that of other explosives, and the solid stress has been inferred from impact experiments or estimated from mercury porosimetry. This lack of knowledge of the precise crystalline isotherm can contribute to large model uncertainty in the reacted response of pellets to shock impact. At high impact stresses, deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) processes initiated by compressive reaction have been interpreted from velocity interferometry at the surface of distended HNS-FP pellets. In particular, the Baer-Nunziato multiphase model in CTH, Sandia's Eulerian, finite volume shock propagation code, was used to predict compressive waves in pellets having approximately a 60% theoretical maximum density (TMD). These calculations were repeated with newly acquired isothermal compression measurements of fine-particle HNS using diamond anvil cells to compress the sample and powder x-ray diffraction to obtain the sample volume at each pressure point. Hence, estimating the model uncertainty provides a simple method for conveying the impact of future model improvements based upon new experimental data.

  9. Modeling compressive reaction and estimating model uncertainty in shock loaded porous samples of hexanitrostilbene (HNS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brundage, Aaron L.; Gump, Jared C.

    2012-03-01

    Neat pressings of HNS powders have been used in many explosive applications for over 50 years. However, characterization of its crystalline properties has lagged that of other explosives, and the solid stress has been inferred from impact experiments or estimated from mercury porosimetry. This lack of knowledge of the precise crystalline isotherm can contribute to large model uncertainty in the reacted response of pellets to shock impact. At high impact stresses, deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) processes initiated by compressive reaction have been interpreted from velocity interferometry at the surface of distended HNS-FP pellets. In particular, the Baer-Nunziato multiphase model in CTH, Sandia's Eulerian, finite volume shock propagation code, was used to predict compressive waves in pellets having approximately a 60% theoretical maximum density (TMD). These calculations were repeated with newly acquired isothermal compression measurements of fineparticle HNS using diamond anvil cells to compress the sample and powder x-ray diffraction to obtain the sample volume at each pressure point. Hence, estimating the model uncertainty provides a simple method for conveying the impact of future model improvements based upon new experimental data.

  10. Continuous Age-Structured Model for Bovine Tuberculosis in African buffalo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anguelov, R.; Kojouharov, H.

    2009-10-01

    The paper deals with a model of the spread of bovine tuberculosis in the buffalo population in the Kruger National Park in South Africa. The model uses continuous age structure and it is formulated in terms of partial differential equations using eight epidemiological classes (compartments). More precisely, the age density for each class at time t satisfies a one way wave equation, where the age is the space variable. The continuous age model discussed here is derived from a 2006 age groups model by P. C. Cross and W. M. Getz.

  11. Assessment of Borderline Personality Features in Population Samples: Is the Personality Assessment Inventory-Borderline Features Scale Measurement Invariant across Sex and Age?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Moor, Marleen H. M.; Distel, Marijn A.; Trull, Timothy J.; Boomsma, Dorret I.

    2009-01-01

    Borderline personality disorder (BPD) is more often diagnosed in women than in men, and symptoms tend to decline with age. Using a large community sample, the authors investigated whether sex and age differences in four main features of BPD, measured with the "Personality Assessment Inventory-Borderline Features" scale (PAI-BOR; Morey, 1991), are…

  12. Effects of room temperature aging on two cryogenic temperature sensor models used in aerospace applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Courts, S. Scott; Krause, John

    2012-06-01

    Cryogenic temperature sensors used in aerospace applications are typically procured far in advance of the mission launch date. Depending upon the program, the temperature sensors may be stored at room temperature for extended periods as installation and groundbased testing can take years before the actual flight. The effects of long term storage at room temperature are sometimes approximated by the use of accelerated aging at temperatures well above room temperature, but this practice can yield invalid results as the sensing material and/or electrical contacting method can be increasingly unstable with higher temperature exposure. To date, little data are available on the effects of extended room temperature aging on sensors commonly used in aerospace applications. This research examines two such temperature sensors models - the Lake Shore Cryotronics, Inc. model CernoxTM and DT-670-SD temperature sensors. Sample groups of each model type have been maintained for ten years or longer with room temperature storage between calibrations. Over an eighteen year period, the CernoxTM temperature sensors exhibited a stability of better than ±20 mK for T<30 K and better than ±0.1% of temperature for T>30 K. Over a ten year period the model DT-670-SD sensors exhibited a stability of better than ±140 mK for T<25 K and better than ±75 mK for T>25 K.

  13. 12 CFR Appendix B to Part 1030 - Model Clauses and Sample Forms

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Model Clauses and Sample Forms B Appendix B to.... 1030, App. B Appendix B to Part 1030—Model Clauses and Sample Forms 1. Modifications. Institutions that modify the model clauses will be deemed in compliance as long as they do not delete required...

  14. 12 CFR Appendix B to Part 230 - Model Clauses and Sample Forms

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Model Clauses and Sample Forms B Appendix B to... SYSTEM (CONTINUED) TRUTH IN SAVINGS (REGULATION DD) Pt. 230, App. B Appendix B to Part 230—Model Clauses and Sample Forms Table of contents B-1—Model Clauses for Account Disclosures (Section 230.4(b))...

  15. 12 CFR Appendix B to Part 230 - Model Clauses and Sample Forms

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Model Clauses and Sample Forms B Appendix B to... SYSTEM (CONTINUED) TRUTH IN SAVINGS (REGULATION DD) Pt. 230, App. B Appendix B to Part 230—Model Clauses and Sample Forms Table of contents B-1—Model Clauses for Account Disclosures (Section 230.4(b))...

  16. 12 CFR Appendix B to Part 230 - Model Clauses and Sample Forms

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Model Clauses and Sample Forms B Appendix B to... SYSTEM (CONTINUED) TRUTH IN SAVINGS (REGULATION DD) Pt. 230, App. B Appendix B to Part 230—Model Clauses and Sample Forms Table of contents B-1—Model Clauses for Account Disclosures (Section 230.4(b))...

  17. Age or stage structure? A comparison of dynamic outcomes from discrete age- and stage-structured population models.

    PubMed

    Wikan, Arild

    2012-06-01

    Discrete stage-structured density-dependent and discrete age-structured density-dependent population models are considered. Regarding the former, we prove that the model at hand is permanent (i.e., that the population will neither go extinct nor exhibit explosive oscillations) and given density dependent fecundity terms we also show that species with delayed semelparous life histories tend to be more stable than species which possess precocious semelparous life histories. Moreover, our findings together with results obtained from other stage-structured models seem to illustrate a fairly general ecological principle, namely that iteroparous species are more stable than semelparous species. Our analysis of various age-structured models does not necessarily support the conclusions above. In fact, species with precocious life histories now appear to possess better stability properties than species with delayed life histories, especially in the iteroparous case. We also show that there are dynamical outcomes from semelparous age-structured models which we are not able to capture in corresponding stage-structured cases. Finally, both age- and stage-structured population models may generate periodic dynamics of low period (either exact or approximate). The important prerequisite is to assume density-dependent survival probabilities. PMID:22297621

  18. Characterizing cognitive aging of associative memory in animal models

    PubMed Central

    Engle, James R.; Barnes, Carol A.

    2012-01-01

    An overview is provided of the simple single-cue delay and trace eyeblink conditioning paradigms as techniques to assess associative learning and memory in the aged. We highlight and focus this review on the optimization of the parameter space of eyeblink conditioning designs in the aged to avoid and control for potential confounds that may arise when studying aged mammals. The need to examine the contribution of non-associative factors that can contribute to performance outcomes is emphasized, and how age-related changes in the central nervous system as well as peripheral sensory factors can potentially bias the interpretation of the data in the aged is discussed. The way in which slight alterations of the parameter space in the delay and trace eyeblink conditioning paradigms can lead to delayed but intact conditioning, rather than impaired performance in aged animals is also discussed. Overall, the eyeblink conditioning paradigm, when optimized for the age of the animal in the study, is an elegantly simple technique for assessment of associative learning and memory. When design caveats described above are taken into account, this important type of memory, with its well-defined neural substrates, should definitely be included in cognitive assessment batteries for the aged. PMID:22988435

  19. A ternary age-mixing model to explain contaminant occurrence in a deep supply well.

    PubMed

    Jurgens, Bryant C; Bexfield, Laura M; Eberts, Sandra M

    2014-09-01

    The age distribution of water from a public-supply well in a deep alluvial aquifer was estimated and used to help explain arsenic variability in the water. The age distribution was computed using a ternary mixing model that combines three lumped parameter models of advection-dispersion transport of environmental tracers, which represent relatively recent recharge (post-1950s) containing volatile organic compounds (VOCs), old intermediate depth groundwater (about 6500 years) that was free of drinking-water contaminants, and very old, deep groundwater (more than 21,000 years) containing arsenic above the USEPA maximum contaminant level of 10 µg/L. The ternary mixing model was calibrated to tritium, chloroflorocarbon-113, and carbon-14 (14C) concentrations that were measured in water samples collected on multiple occasions. Variability in atmospheric 14C over the past 50,000 years was accounted for in the interpretation of (14) C as a tracer. Calibrated ternary models indicate the fraction of deep, very old groundwater entering the well varies substantially throughout the year and was highest following long periods of nonoperation or infrequent operation, which occured during the winter season when water demand was low. The fraction of young water entering the well was about 11% during the summer when pumping peaked to meet water demand and about 3% to 6% during the winter months. This paper demonstrates how collection of multiple tracers can be used in combination with simplified models of fluid flow to estimate the age distribution and thus fraction of contaminated groundwater reaching a supply well under different pumping conditions.

  20. A ternary age-mixing model to explain contaminant occurrence in a deep supply well

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jurgens, Bryant; Bexfield, Laura M.; Eberts, Sandra

    2014-01-01

    The age distribution of water from a public-supply well in a deep alluvial aquifer was estimated and used to help explain arsenic variability in the water. The age distribution was computed using a ternary mixing model that combines three lumped parameter models of advection-dispersion transport of environmental tracers, which represent relatively recent recharge (post- 1950s) containing volatile organic compounds (VOCs), old intermediate depth groundwater (about 6500 years) that was free of drinking-water contaminants, and very old, deep groundwater (more than 21,000 years) containing arsenic above the USEPA maximum contaminant level of 10 µg/L. The ternary mixing model was calibrated to tritium, chloroflorocarbon-113, and carbon-14 (14C) concentrations that were measured in water samples collected on multiple occasions. Variability in atmospheric 14C over the past 50,000 years was accounted for in the interpretation of 14C as a tracer. Calibrated ternary models indicate the fraction of deep, very old groundwater entering the well varies substantially throughout the year and was highest following long periods of nonoperation or infrequent operation, which occured during the winter season when water demand was low. The fraction of young water entering the well was about 11% during the summer when pumping peaked to meet water demand and about 3% to 6% during the winter months. This paper demonstrates how collection of multiple tracers can be used in combination with simplified models of fluid flow to estimate the age distribution and thus fraction of contaminated groundwater reaching a supply well under different pumping conditions.

  1. A Ternary Age-Mixing Model to Explain Contaminant Occurrence in a Deep Supply Well

    PubMed Central

    Jurgens, Bryant C; Bexfield, Laura M; Eberts, Sandra M

    2014-01-01

    The age distribution of water from a public-supply well in a deep alluvial aquifer was estimated and used to help explain arsenic variability in the water. The age distribution was computed using a ternary mixing model that combines three lumped parameter models of advection-dispersion transport of environmental tracers, which represent relatively recent recharge (post-1950s) containing volatile organic compounds (VOCs), old intermediate depth groundwater (about 6500 years) that was free of drinking-water contaminants, and very old, deep groundwater (more than 21,000 years) containing arsenic above the USEPA maximum contaminant level of 10 µg/L. The ternary mixing model was calibrated to tritium, chloroflorocarbon-113, and carbon-14 (14C) concentrations that were measured in water samples collected on multiple occasions. Variability in atmospheric 14C over the past 50,000 years was accounted for in the interpretation of 14C as a tracer. Calibrated ternary models indicate the fraction of deep, very old groundwater entering the well varies substantially throughout the year and was highest following long periods of nonoperation or infrequent operation, which occured during the winter season when water demand was low. The fraction of young water entering the well was about 11% during the summer when pumping peaked to meet water demand and about 3% to 6% during the winter months. This paper demonstrates how collection of multiple tracers can be used in combination with simplified models of fluid flow to estimate the age distribution and thus fraction of contaminated groundwater reaching a supply well under different pumping conditions. PMID:24597520

  2. Modeling sample variables with an Experimental Factor Ontology

    PubMed Central

    Malone, James; Holloway, Ele; Adamusiak, Tomasz; Kapushesky, Misha; Zheng, Jie; Kolesnikov, Nikolay; Zhukova, Anna; Brazma, Alvis; Parkinson, Helen

    2010-01-01

    Motivation: Describing biological sample variables with ontologies is complex due to the cross-domain nature of experiments. Ontologies provide annotation solutions; however, for cross-domain investigations, multiple ontologies are needed to represent the data. These are subject to rapid change, are often not interoperable and present complexities that are a barrier to biological resource users. Results: We present the Experimental Factor Ontology, designed to meet cross-domain, application focused use cases for gene expression data. We describe our methodology and open source tools used to create the ontology. These include tools for creating ontology mappings, ontology views, detecting ontology changes and using ontologies in interfaces to enhance querying. The application of reference ontologies to data is a key problem, and this work presents guidelines on how community ontologies can be presented in an application ontology in a data-driven way. Availability: http://www.ebi.ac.uk/efo Contact: malone@ebi.ac.uk Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:20200009

  3. Space resection model calculation based on Random Sample Consensus algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Xinzhu; Kang, Zhizhong

    2016-03-01

    Resection has been one of the most important content in photogrammetry. It aims at the position and attitude information of camera at the shooting point. However in some cases, the observed values for calculating are with gross errors. This paper presents a robust algorithm that using RANSAC method with DLT model can effectually avoiding the difficulties to determine initial values when using co-linear equation. The results also show that our strategies can exclude crude handicap and lead to an accurate and efficient way to gain elements of exterior orientation.

  4. Chronic kidney disease: a clinical model of premature aging.

    PubMed

    Stenvinkel, Peter; Larsson, Tobias E

    2013-08-01

    Premature aging is a process associated with a progressive accumulation of deleterious changes over time, an impairment of physiologic functions, and an increase in the risk of disease and death. Regardless of genetic background, aging can be accelerated by the lifestyle choices and environmental conditions to which our genes are exposed. Chronic kidney disease is a common condition that promotes cellular senescence and premature aging through toxic alterations in the internal milieu. This occurs through several mechanisms, including DNA and mitochondria damage, increased reactive oxygen species generation, persistent inflammation, stem cell exhaustion, phosphate toxicity, decreased klotho expression, and telomere attrition. Because recent evidence suggests that both increased local signaling of growth factors (through the nutrient-sensing mammalian target of rapamycin) and decreased klotho expression are important modulators of aging, interventions that target these should be tested in this prematurely aged population.

  5. Inflammation Partially Mediates the Association of Multimorbidity and Functional Limitations in a National Sample of Middle-Aged and Older Adults: The MIDUS Study

    PubMed Central

    Friedman, Elliot M.; Christ, Sharon L.; Mroczek, Daniel K.

    2015-01-01

    Objective Older adults are increasingly likely to have two or more chronic medical conditions (multimorbidity) and are consequently at greater risk of disability. Here we examine the role of inflammation in mediating the relationship between multimorbidity and disability. Method Data are from the Survey of Mid-Life in the United States (MIDUS), a national sample of middle-aged and older adults. Structural equation models were used to assess direct relationships between multimorbidity and activities of daily living as well as indirect associations with a latent variable for inflammation (indicated by circulating levels of interleukin-6, C-reactive protein, and fibrinogen) as a mediator. Results After adjustment for potential confounds, multimorbidity was positively associated with inflammation (p < .001) and functional limitations (p < .001), and inflammation partially mediated the link between multimorbidity and functional limitations (p < .01). Discussion Inflammation may be an important biological mechanism through which chronic medical conditions are linked to disability in later life. PMID:25649677

  6. The short-lived African turquoise killifish: an emerging experimental model for ageing.

    PubMed

    Kim, Yumi; Nam, Hong Gil; Valenzano, Dario Riccardo

    2016-02-01

    Human ageing is a fundamental biological process that leads to functional decay, increased risk for various diseases and, ultimately, death. Some of the basic biological mechanisms underlying human ageing are shared with other organisms; thus, animal models have been invaluable in providing key mechanistic and molecular insights into the common bases of biological ageing. In this Review, we briefly summarise the major applications of the most commonly used model organisms adopted in ageing research and highlight their relevance in understanding human ageing. We compare the strengths and limitations of different model organisms and discuss in detail an emerging ageing model, the short-lived African turquoise killifish. We review the recent progress made in using the turquoise killifish to study the biology of ageing and discuss potential future applications of this promising animal model. PMID:26839399

  7. The short-lived African turquoise killifish: an emerging experimental model for ageing

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Yumi; Nam, Hong Gil; Valenzano, Dario Riccardo

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Human ageing is a fundamental biological process that leads to functional decay, increased risk for various diseases and, ultimately, death. Some of the basic biological mechanisms underlying human ageing are shared with other organisms; thus, animal models have been invaluable in providing key mechanistic and molecular insights into the common bases of biological ageing. In this Review, we briefly summarise the major applications of the most commonly used model organisms adopted in ageing research and highlight their relevance in understanding human ageing. We compare the strengths and limitations of different model organisms and discuss in detail an emerging ageing model, the short-lived African turquoise killifish. We review the recent progress made in using the turquoise killifish to study the biology of ageing and discuss potential future applications of this promising animal model. PMID:26839399

  8. The short-lived African turquoise killifish: an emerging experimental model for ageing.

    PubMed

    Kim, Yumi; Nam, Hong Gil; Valenzano, Dario Riccardo

    2016-02-01

    Human ageing is a fundamental biological process that leads to functional decay, increased risk for various diseases and, ultimately, death. Some of the basic biological mechanisms underlying human ageing are shared with other organisms; thus, animal models have been invaluable in providing key mechanistic and molecular insights into the common bases of biological ageing. In this Review, we briefly summarise the major applications of the most commonly used model organisms adopted in ageing research and highlight their relevance in understanding human ageing. We compare the strengths and limitations of different model organisms and discuss in detail an emerging ageing model, the short-lived African turquoise killifish. We review the recent progress made in using the turquoise killifish to study the biology of ageing and discuss potential future applications of this promising animal model.

  9. An agent-based computational model for tuberculosis spreading on age-structured populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graciani Rodrigues, C. C.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

    2015-06-01

    In this work we present an agent-based computational model to study the spreading of the tuberculosis (TB) disease on age-structured populations. The model proposed is a merge of two previous models: an agent-based computational model for the spreading of tuberculosis and a bit-string model for biological aging. The combination of TB with the population aging, reproduces the coexistence of health states, as seen in real populations. In addition, the universal exponential behavior of mortalities curves is still preserved. Finally, the population distribution as function of age shows the prevalence of TB mostly in elders, for high efficacy treatments.

  10. The Stroop Color-Word Test: Influence of Age, Sex, and Education; and Normative Data for a Large Sample Across the Adult Age Range

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Van der Elst, Wim; Van Boxtel, Martin P. J.; Van Breukelen, Gerard J. P.; Jolles, Jelle

    2006-01-01

    The Stroop Color-Word Test was administered to 1,856 cognitively screened, healthy Dutch-speaking participants aged 24 to 81 years. The effects of age, gender, and education on Stroop test performance were investigated to adequately stratify the normative data. The results showed that especially the speed-dependent Stroop scores (time to complete…

  11. The Incidence of Attachment Objects and Oral Habits at Bedtime in Two Longitudinal Samples of Children Aged 1.5-7 Years.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mahalski, Pauline A.

    1983-01-01

    Mothers in one sample were interviewed when children were 1.5, 2, and 2.5 years old, while mothers in the other sample answered questionnaires when their children were 3.5, 5, and 7 years old. Strong emotional attachment to objects and finger-sucking were most prevalent around 2 years of age. (MP)

  12. Urban groundwater age modeling under unconfined condition - Impact of underground structures on groundwater age: Evidence of a piston effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Attard, Guillaume; Rossier, Yvan; Eisenlohr, Laurent

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, underground structures are shown to have a major influence on the groundwater mean age distribution described as a dispersive piston effect. Urban underground development does not occur without impacts on subsoil resources. In particular, groundwater resources can be vulnerable and generate disturbances when this space is exploited. Groundwater age spatial distribution data are fundamental for resource management as it can provide operational sustainability indicators. However, the application of groundwater age modeling is neglected regarding the potential effect of underground structures in urban areas. A three dimensional modeling approach was conducted to quantify the impact of two underground structures: (1) an impervious structure and (2) a draining structure. Both structures are shown to cause significant mixing processes occurring between shallow and deeper aquifers. The design technique used for draining structures is shown to have the greatest impact, generating a decrease in mean age of more than 80% under the structure. Groundwater age modeling is shown to be relevant for highlighting the role played by underground structures in advective-dispersive flows in urban areas.

  13. Microwave-assisted sample treatment in a fully automated flow-based instrument: oxidation of reduced technetium species in the analysis of total technetium-99 in caustic aged nuclear waste samples.

    PubMed

    Egorov, Oleg B; O'Hara, Matthew J; Grate, Jay W

    2004-07-15

    An automated flow-based instrument for microwave-assisted treatment of liquid samples has been developed and characterized. The instrument utilizes a flow-through reaction vessel design that facilitates the addition of multiple reagents during sample treatment and removal of the gaseous reaction products and enables quantitative removal of liquids from the reaction vessel for carryover-free operations. Matrix modification and speciation control chemistries that are required for the radiochemical determination of total (99)Tc in caustic aged nuclear waste samples have been investigated. A rapid and quantitative oxidation procedure using peroxydisulfate in acidic solution was developed to convert reduced technetium species to pertechnetate in samples with high content of reducing organics. The effectiveness of the automated sample treatment procedures has been validated in the radiochemical analysis of total (99)Tc in caustic aged nuclear waste matrixes from the Hanford site.

  14. Deposition times in the northeastern United States during the Holocene: establishing valid priors for Bayesian age models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goring, S.; Williams, J. W.; Blois, J. L.; Jackson, S. T.; Paciorek, C. J.; Booth, R. K.; Marlon, J. R.; Blaauw, M.; Christen, J. A.

    2012-08-01

    Bayesian approaches since there is strong variation in the gamma parameters both in the most recent sediments and throughout the Holocene. Time-averaged gamma distributions for lacustrine (α = 1.35, β = 19.64) and palustrine samples (α = 1.40, β = 20.72) show lower overall deposition times, but variability remains. The variation in gamma parameters through time may require the use of multiple gamma distributions during the Holocene to generate accurate age-depth models. We present estimates of gamma parameters for deposition times at 1000 yr intervals. The parameters generated in this study can be used directly within Bacon to act as Bayesian priors for sedimentary age models.

  15. How does observation uncertainty influence which stream water samples are most informative for model calibration?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ling; van Meerveld, Ilja; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Streamflow isotope samples taken during rainfall-runoff events are very useful for multi-criteria model calibration because they can help decrease parameter uncertainty and improve internal model consistency. However, the number of samples that can be collected and analysed is often restricted by practical and financial constraints. It is, therefore, important to choose an appropriate sampling strategy and to obtain samples that have the highest information content for model calibration. We used the Birkenes hydrochemical model and synthetic rainfall, streamflow and isotope data to explore which samples are most informative for model calibration. Starting with error-free observations, we investigated how many samples are needed to obtain a certain model fit. Based on different parameter sets, representing different catchments, and different rainfall events, we also determined which sampling times provide the most informative data for model calibration. Our results show that simulation performance for models calibrated with the isotopic data from two intelligently selected samples was comparable to simulations based on isotopic data for all 100 time steps. The models calibrated with the intelligently selected samples also performed better than the model calibrations with two benchmark sampling strategies (random selection and selection based on hydrologic information). Surprisingly, samples on the rising limb and at the peak were less informative than expected and, generally, samples taken at the end of the event were most informative. The timing of the most informative samples depends on the proportion of different flow components (baseflow, slow response flow, fast response flow and overflow). For events dominated by baseflow and slow response flow, samples taken at the end of the event after the fast response flow has ended were most informative; when the fast response flow was dominant, samples taken near the peak were most informative. However when overflow

  16. Reinvestigation of age model for relative paleointensity stack and application to Lake Baikal record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oda, H.

    2014-12-01

    The age model for relative paleointensity stack PISO-1500 (Channell et al., 2009) is based on IODP U1308 from North Atlantic. Channell et al. (2008) developed the age model for U1308 by correlating the benthic oxygen isotope curve with LR04 oxygen isotope stack (Lisiecki&Raymo, 2005). LR04 stack is known as oxygen isotope stack for benthic foraminifarra, whose age model is dependent on ice volume model with a certain time lag. On the other hand, Caballero-Gill et al. (2012) developed an absolute age model based on U-Th dating for stalagmites from China and correlated the oxygen isotope curve with that on planctonic foraminiferra for a deep-sea core from South China Sea. The age model based on absolute dating for stalagmite was then transfered to oxygen isotope curve of benthic forraminiferra for the same core. This enables to provide absolute age model on PISO-1500 for the past 350 kyrs. The resulting modified PISO-1500 was applied on paleomagnetic records from Lake Baikal to provide an age model based on relative paleointensity. Finally, this age model was compared with alternative age model based on correlation of biogenic silica record with insolation at the site (Prokopenko et al., 2006) and the reason for the discrepancy will be discussed.

  17. Autophagy drives epidermal deterioration in a Drosophila model of tissue aging.

    PubMed

    Scherfer, Christoph; Han, Violet C; Wang, Yan; Anderson, Aimee E; Galko, Michael J

    2013-04-01

    Organismal lifespan has been the primary readout in aging research. However, how longevity genes control tissue-specific aging remains an open question. To examine the crosstalk between longevity programs and specific tissues during aging, biomarkers of organ-specific aging are urgently needed. Since the earliest signs of aging occur in the skin, we sought to examine skin aging in a genetically tractable model. Here we introduce a Drosophila model of skin aging. The epidermis undergoes a dramatic morphological deterioration with age that includes membrane and nuclear loss. These changes were decelerated in a long-lived mutant and accelerated in a short-lived mutant. An increase in autophagy markers correlated with epidermal aging. Finally, the epidermis of Atg7 mutants retained younger characteristics, suggesting that autophagy is a critical driver of epidermal aging. This is surprising given that autophagy is generally viewed as protective during aging. Since Atg7 mutants are short-lived, the deceleration of epidermal aging in this mutant suggests that in the epidermis healthspan can be uncoupled from longevity. Because the aging readout we introduce here has an early onset and is easily visualized, genetic dissection using our model should identify other novel mechanisms by which lifespan genes feed into tissue-specific aging.

  18. Testing Models of Psychopathology in Preschool-aged Children Using a Structured Interview-based Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Dougherty, Lea R.; Bufferd, Sara J.; Carlson, Gabrielle A.; Klein, Daniel N.

    2014-01-01

    A number of studies have found that broadband internalizing and externalizing factors provide a parsimonious framework for understanding the structure of psychopathology across childhood, adolescence, and adulthood. However, few of these studies have examined psychopathology in young children, and several recent studies have found support for alternative models, including a bi-factor model with common and specific factors. The present study used parents’ (typically mothers’) reports on a diagnostic interview in a community sample of 3-year old children (n=541; 53.9 % male) to compare the internalizing-externalizing latent factor model with a bi-factor model. The bi-factor model provided a better fit to the data. To test the concurrent validity of this solution, we examined associations between this model and paternal reports and laboratory observations of child temperament. The internalizing factor was associated with low levels of surgency and high levels of fear; the externalizing factor was associated with high levels of surgency and disinhibition and low levels of effortful control; and the common factor was associated with high levels of surgency and negative affect and low levels of effortful control. These results suggest that psychopathology in preschool-aged children may be explained by a single, common factor influencing nearly all disorders and unique internalizing and externalizing factors. These findings indicate that shared variance across internalizing and externalizing domains is substantial and are consistent with recent suggestions that emotion regulation difficulties may be a common vulnerability for a wide array of psychopathology. PMID:24652485

  19. Sampling through time and phylodynamic inference with coalescent and birth-death models.

    PubMed

    Volz, Erik M; Frost, Simon D W

    2014-12-01

    Many population genetic models have been developed for the purpose of inferring population size and growth rates from random samples of genetic data. We examine two popular approaches to this problem, the coalescent and the birth–death-sampling model (BDM), in the context of estimating population size and birth rates in a population growing exponentially according to the birth–death branching process. For sequences sampled at a single time, we found the coalescent and the BDM gave virtually indistinguishable results in terms of the growth rates and fraction of the population sampled, even when sampling from a small population. For sequences sampled at multiple time points, we find that the birth–death model estimators are subject to large bias if the sampling process is misspecified. Since BDMs incorporate a model of the sampling process, we show how much of the statistical power of BDMs arises from the sequence of sample times and not from the genealogical tree. This motivates the development of a new coalescent estimator, which is augmented with a model of the known sampling process and is potentially more precise than the coalescent that does not use sample time information.

  20. Sampling through time and phylodynamic inference with coalescent and birth-death models.

    PubMed

    Volz, Erik M; Frost, Simon D W

    2014-12-01

    Many population genetic models have been developed for the purpose of inferring population size and growth rates from random samples of genetic data. We examine two popular approaches to this problem, the coalescent and the birth–death-sampling model (BDM), in the context of estimating population size and birth rates in a population growing exponentially according to the birth–death branching process. For sequences sampled at a single time, we found the coalescent and the BDM gave virtually indistinguishable results in terms of the growth rates and fraction of the population sampled, even when sampling from a small population. For sequences sampled at multiple time points, we find that the birth–death model estimators are subject to large bias if the sampling process is misspecified. Since BDMs incorporate a model of the sampling process, we show how much of the statistical power of BDMs arises from the sequence of sample times and not from the genealogical tree. This motivates the development of a new coalescent estimator, which is augmented with a model of the known sampling process and is potentially more precise than the coalescent that does not use sample time information. PMID:25401173

  1. 12 CFR Appendix B to Part 1030 - Model Clauses and Sample Forms

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Model Clauses and Sample Forms B Appendix B to.... 1030, App. B Appendix B to Part 1030—Model Clauses and Sample Forms Table of Contents B-1—Model Clauses for Account Disclosures (Section 1030.4(b)) B-2—Model Clauses for Change in Terms (Section...

  2. 12 CFR Appendix B to Part 1030 - Model Clauses and Sample Forms

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Model Clauses and Sample Forms B Appendix B to.... 1030, App. B Appendix B to Part 1030—Model Clauses and Sample Forms Table of Contents B-1—Model Clauses for Account Disclosures (Section 1030.4(b)) B-2—Model Clauses for Change in Terms (Section...

  3. Utility of Oral Swab Sampling for Ebola Virus Detection in Guinea Pig Model.

    PubMed

    Spengler, Jessica R; Chakrabarti, Ayan K; Coleman-McCray, JoAnn D; Martin, Brock E; Nichol, Stuart T; Spiropoulou, Christina F; Bird, Brian H

    2015-10-01

    To determine the utility of oral swabs for diagnosing infection with Ebola virus, we used a guinea pig model and obtained daily antemortem and postmortem swab samples. According to quantitative reverse transcription PCR analysis, the diagnostic value was poor for antemortem swab samples but excellent for postmortem samples.

  4. Utility of Oral Swab Sampling for Ebola Virus Detection in Guinea Pig Model.

    PubMed

    Spengler, Jessica R; Chakrabarti, Ayan K; Coleman-McCray, JoAnn D; Martin, Brock E; Nichol, Stuart T; Spiropoulou, Christina F; Bird, Brian H

    2015-10-01

    To determine the utility of oral swabs for diagnosing infection with Ebola virus, we used a guinea pig model and obtained daily antemortem and postmortem swab samples. According to quantitative reverse transcription PCR analysis, the diagnostic value was poor for antemortem swab samples but excellent for postmortem samples. PMID:26401603

  5. Age and Anomia in Middle and Later Life: A Multivariate Analysis of a National Sample of White Men.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pope, Hallowell; Ferguson, Miller Dwayne

    1982-01-01

    Tested whether the aged status in America results in distrust and despair with the social order (anomia). A multivariate regression analysis utilizing data on 354 men aged 40 and older showed no relationship between age or other indicators of life chances or anomia, net of education and/or verbal intelligence. (Author/RC)

  6. Organophosphate Insecticide Metabolites in Prenatal and Childhood Urine Samples and Intelligence Scores at 6 Years of Age: Results from the Mother–Child PELAGIE Cohort (France)

    PubMed Central

    Cartier, Chloé; Warembourg, Charline; Le Maner-Idrissi, Gaïd; Lacroix, Agnès; Rouget, Florence; Monfort, Christine; Limon, Gwendolina; Durand, Gaël; Saint-Amour, Dave; Cordier, Sylvaine; Chevrier, Cécile

    2015-01-01

    Background: Several studies suggest that exposure to organophosphate insecticides (OP) during pregnancy impairs neurodevelopment in children. Objectives: We evaluated associations between biomarkers of prenatal and postnatal OP exposure and cognitive function of 6-year-olds in a French longitudinal birth cohort. Methods: In 2002–2006, the PELAGIE mother–child cohort enrolled pregnant women from Brittany. For a random subcohort, we measured nonspecific dialkylphosphate metabolites (DAP) of OP in one maternal urine sample, collected before 19 weeks’ gestation, and in one urine sample collected from their 6-year-old children. Six subtests of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, 4th edition (WISC-IV) were administered when the children were 6 years of age to evaluate cognitive function (n = 231). Linear regression models controlling for factors including maternal intelligence and the Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment score were used. Results: WISC-IV scores were not significantly associated with prenatal or childhood total DAP metabolites. WISC verbal comprehension score was significantly higher in association with the highest maternal urinary concentrations of diethylphosphate (DE) metabolites (5.5; 95% CI: 0.8, 10.3 for > 13.2 nmol/L vs. < LOQ), whereas WISC working memory score was significantly lower in association with the highest urinary concentrations of DE metabolites at age 6 years (–3.6; 95% CI: –7.8, –0.6 for > 11.1 nmol/L vs. < LOD). Conclusion: We found no evidence that prenatal OP exposure adversely affected cognitive function in 6-year-olds, perhaps because of the population’s socioeconomic status, which was higher than in previous studies, though other causal and noncausal explanations are also possible. The negative association between WISC score and concurrent DE urinary concentrations requires replication by longitudinal studies investigating childhood OP exposure. Citation: Cartier C, Warembourg C, Le Maner

  7. Mediational Role of Age of Onset in Gambling Disorder, a Path Modeling Analysis.

    PubMed

    Jiménez-Murcia, Susana; Granero, Roser; Tárrega, Salomé; Angulo, Ariadna; Fernández-Aranda, Fernando; Arcelus, Jon; Fagundo, Ana B; Aymamí, Neus; Moragas, Laura; Sauvaget, Anne; Grall-Bronnec, Marie; Gómez-Peña, Mónica; Menchón, José M

    2016-03-01

    The aim of the study is to assess a mediational pathway, which includes patients' sex, personality traits, age of onset of gambling disorder (GD) and gambling-related variables. The South Oaks Gambling Screen, the Symptom Checklist (SCL-90-R) and the Temperament and Character Inventory-R were administered to a large sample of 1632 outpatients attending a specialized outpatient GD unit. Sociodemographic variables were also recorded. A Structural Equation Model was adjusted to assess the pathway. Age of onset mediated between personality profile (novelty seeking and self-transcendence) and GD severity and depression symptoms (measured by SCL-90-R). Sex had a direct effect on GD onset and depression symptoms: men initiated the GD earlier and reported fewer depression symptoms. Age of onset is a mediating variable between sex, personality traits, GD severity and depression symptoms. These empirical results provide new evidence about the underlying etiological process of dysfunctional behaviors related to gambling, and may help to guide the development of more effective treatment and prevention programs aimed at high-risk groups such as young men with high levels of novelty seeking and self-transcendence.

  8. Thermal characterization and model free kinetics of aged epoxies and foams using TGA and DSC methods.

    SciTech Connect

    Cordaro, Joseph Gabriel; Kruizenga, Alan Michael; Nissen, April

    2013-10-01

    Two classes of materials, poly(methylene diphenyl diisocyanate) or PMDI foam, and cross-linked epoxy resins, were characterized using thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), to help understand the effects of aging and %E2%80%9Cbake-out%E2%80%9D. The materials were evaluated for mass loss and the onset of decomposition. In some experiments, volatile materials released during heating were analyzed via mass spectroscopy. In all, over twenty materials were evaluated to compare the mass loss and onset temperature for decomposition. Model free kinetic (MFK) measurements, acquired using variable heating rate TGA experiments, were used to calculate the apparent activation energy of thermal decomposition. From these compiled data the effects of aging, bake-out, and sample history on the thermal stability of materials were compared. No significant differences between aged and unaged materials were detected. Bake-out did slightly affect the onset temperature of decomposition but only at the highest bake-out temperatures. Finally, some recommendations for future handling are made.

  9. Development of the Japanese reference man model for age-specific phantoms.

    PubMed

    Kawamura, Hisao

    2012-03-01

    Recent interest in improving methods for calculating radiation doses to atomic bomb survivors necessitates reinforcing the data on masses of organs of the Japanese population in 1945, including those that are not calculated by DS02, as well as increasing the number of phantoms for different ages. Reference is made to published data on the masses of organs in normal Japanese subjects of 0-90 y of age with more than 5000 samples during 1970-80, as well as the weight and size of the total body. The first Japanese Reference Man model, primarily based on these data and following the ICRP Reference Man concept, is briefly explained. It provides a set of reference values for males and females of six age groups, i.e. 3 months, 1, 5, 10, 15 and 20-50 y. To consider the organ masses of the Japanese population in 1945, the data during the period 1970-80 are compared with the literature data of normal Japanese reported in 1952. Differences between the two sets of organ data in adults are discussed in relation to changes in the national status of nutrition. Additional organ masses of current interest for the Japanese population in 1945 are preliminarily considered.

  10. Aging and Neurodegeneration: A Tangle of Models and Mechanisms.

    PubMed

    Chakrabarti, Sasanka; Mohanakumar, Kochupurackal P

    2016-03-01

    The research on aging and age-related diseases, especially the neurodegenerative diseases, is on the fast track. However, the results have so far not been translated to actual benefit for the patients in terms of treatment or diagnosis of age-related degenerative diseases including those of the CNS. As far as the prevention of the cognitive decline during non-pathological aging is concerned, there is nothing much to offer other than calorie restriction and physical exercise. Needless to say, the benefits are not up to our expectations. However, over the years at the experimental level it has been possible to identify several cellular and molecular mechanisms that are intricately associated with aging in general and neurodegenerative diseases in particular. These include oxidative stress and altered redox-signaling, mitochondrial dysfunction, inflammation, proteotoxicity and altered gene expressions. These inter-dependent pathways mediate cellular senescence and often culminate in programmed cell death like apoptosis and autophagy, and in the context of brain these changes are manifested clinically as cognitive decline and pathologically as neurodegeneration. This special issue provides the readers with glimpses of this complex scenario from different angles primarily in the context of brain and also attempts to identify the potential drug targets against neurodegenerative diseases. PMID:27114843

  11. Aging and Neurodegeneration: A Tangle of Models and Mechanisms

    PubMed Central

    Chakrabarti, Sasanka; Mohanakumar, Kochupurackal P.

    2016-01-01

    The research on aging and age-related diseases, especially the neurodegenerative diseases, is on the fast track. However, the results have so far not been translated to actual benefit for the patients in terms of treatment or diagnosis of age-related degenerative diseases including those of the CNS. As far as the prevention of the cognitive decline during non-pathological aging is concerned, there is nothing much to offer other than calorie restriction and physical exercise. Needless to say, the benefits are not up to our expectations. However, over the years at the experimental level it has been possible to identify several cellular and molecular mechanisms that are intricately associated with aging in general and neurodegenerative diseases in particular. These include oxidative stress and altered redox-signaling, mitochondrial dysfunction, inflammation, proteotoxicity and altered gene expressions. These inter-dependent pathways mediate cellular senescence and often culminate in programmed cell death like apoptosis and autophagy, and in the context of brain these changes are manifested clinically as cognitive decline and pathologically as neurodegeneration. This special issue provides the readers with glimpses of this complex scenario from different angles primarily in the context of brain and also attempts to identify the potential drug targets against neurodegenerative diseases. PMID:27114843

  12. Abnormal glutamate release in aged BTBR mouse model of autism.

    PubMed

    Wei, Hongen; Ding, Caiyun; Jin, Guorong; Yin, Haizhen; Liu, Jianrong; Hu, Fengyun

    2015-01-01

    Autism is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by abnormal reciprocal social interactions, communication deficits, and repetitive behaviors with restricted interests. Most of the available research on autism is focused on children and young adults and little is known about the pathological alternation of autism in older adults. In order to investigate the neurobiological alternation of autism in old age stage, we compared the morphology and synaptic function of excitatory synapses between the BTBR mice with low level sociability and B6 mice with high level sociability. The results revealed that the number of excitatory synapse colocalized with pre- and post-synaptic marker was not different between aged BTBR and B6 mice. The aged BTBR mice had a normal structure of dendritic spine and the expression of Shank3 protein in the brain as well as that in B6 mice. The baseline and KCl-evoked glutamate release from the cortical synaptoneurosome in aged BTBR mice was lower than that in aged B6 mice. Overall, the data indicate that there is a link between disturbances of the glutamate transmission and autism. These findings provide new evidences for the hypothesis of excitation/inhibition imbalance in autism. Further work is required to determine the cause of this putative abnormality.

  13. Late Quaternary sedimentological and climate changes at Lake Bosumtwi Ghana: new constraints from laminae analysis and radiocarbon age modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shanahan, Timothy M.; Beck, J. Warren; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; McKay, Nicholas P.; Pigati, Jeffrey S.; Peck, John A.; Scholz, Christopher A.; Heil, Clifford W.; King, John W.

    2012-01-01

    The Lake Bosumtwi sediment record represents one of the longest and highest-resolution terrestrial records of paleoclimate change available from sub-Saharan Africa. Here we report a new sediment age model framework for the last ~ 45 cal kyr of sedimentation using a combination of high-resolution radiocarbon dating, Bayesian age-depth modeling and lamination counting. Our results highlight the practical limits of these methods for reducing age model uncertainties and suggest that even with very high sampling densities, radiocarbon uncertainties of at least a few hundred years are unavoidable. Age model uncertainties are smallest during the Holocene (205 yr) and the glacial (360 yr) but are large at the base of the record (1660 yr), due to a combination of decreasing sample density, larger calibration uncertainties and increases in radiocarbon age scatter. For portions of the chronology older than ~ 35 cal kyr, additional considerations, such as the use of a low-blank graphitization system and more rigorous sample pretreatment were necessary to generate a reliable age depth model because of the incorporation of small amounts of younger carbon. A comparison of radiocarbon age model results and lamination counts over the time interval ~ 15–30 cal kyr agree with an overall discrepancy of ~ 10% and display similar changes in sedimentation rate, supporting the annual nature of sediment laminations in the early part of the record. Changes in sedimentation rates reconstructed from the age-depth model indicate that intervals of enhanced sediment delivery occurred at 16–19, 24 and 29–31 cal kyr, broadly synchronous with reconstructed drought episodes elsewhere in northern West Africa and potentially, with changes in Atlantic meridional heat transport during North Atlantic Heinrich events. These data suggest that millennial-scale drought events in the West African monsoon region were latitudinally extensive, reaching within several hundred kilometers of the Guinea coast

  14. Techniques for Down-Sampling a Measured Surface Height Map for Model Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sidick, Erkin

    2012-01-01

    This software allows one to down-sample a measured surface map for model validation, not only without introducing any re-sampling errors, but also eliminating the existing measurement noise and measurement errors. The software tool of the current two new techniques can be used in all optical model validation processes involving large space optical surfaces

  15. Application of the Tripartite Model to a Complicated Sample of Residential Youth with Externalizing Problems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chin, Eu Gene; Ebesutani, Chad; Young, John

    2013-01-01

    The tripartite model of anxiety and depression has received strong support among child and adolescent populations. Clinical samples of children and adolescents in these studies, however, have usually been referred for treatment of anxiety and depression. This study investigated the fit of the tripartite model with a complicated sample of…

  16. GY SAMPLING THEORY AND GEOSTATISTICS: ALTERNATE MODELS OF VARIABILITY IN CONTINUOUS MEDIA

    EPA Science Inventory



    In the sampling theory developed by Pierre Gy, sample variability is modeled as the sum of a set of seven discrete error components. The variogram used in geostatisties provides an alternate model in which several of Gy's error components are combined in a continuous mode...

  17. NMR and molecular modeling: application to wine ageing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saucier, C.; Pianet, I.; Laguerre, M.; Glories, Y.

    1998-02-01

    Red wine contains polyphenols called tannins which are very important for its taste and longevity. These polymers consist in repeating units of catechin and its epimer epicatechin. During ageing, slow condensation reactions take place which lead to new chemical structures. Among the possible reactions, we have focused our attention on acetaldehyde cross-linking. Catechin was used as a model for the production of polymers with acetaldehyde. Two reaction product fractions have been isolated by liquid chromatography. Mass measurement indicated that these fractions contain dimers. NMR (1D and 2D) and molecular modelling were then used to study the structure and conformations of these products. The first product consist in a pure dimer with the two catechin moieties connected with an ethyl bridge on the carbon 6 and 8. The second fraction was a mixture of two dimers (50/50). NMR measurements showed that it could be two symmetrical dimers involving the same carbon for each catechin moiety (6 or8). Le vin rouge contient des polyphénols appelés tanins qui sont très importants pour son goût et sa longévité. Il s'agit principalement de polymères de catéchine et d'épicatéchine. Durant le vieillissement du vin, des réactions de condensation interviennent lentement et conduisent à de nouvelles structures. Parmi les réactions possibles, nous avons plus spécialement étudié la polymérisation par pontage avec l'éthanal. La catéchine a été utilisée comme modèle de tannin et mise en présence d'éthanal en milieu acide proche du vin. Deux fractions de produits de réaction ont été isolées par chromatographie liquide. La spectrométrie de masse a révélé la présence de dimères. La RMN (1D et 2D) et la modélisation moléculaire ont ensuite été utilisées pour déterminer la structure et la conformation de ces produits. La première fraction a été identifiée comme étant un dimère de deux unités catéchines reliées par un pont éthyle par leur

  18. Aged Garlic Extract Attenuates Neuronal Injury in a Rat Model of Spinal Cord Ischemia/Reperfusion Injury.

    PubMed

    Cemil, Berker; Gokce, Emre Cemal; Kahveci, Ramazan; Gokce, Aysun; Aksoy, Nurkan; Sargon, Mustafa Fevzi; Erdogan, Bulent; Kosem, Bahadir

    2016-06-01

    Garlic has been used as a food as well as a component of traditional medicine. Aged garlic extract (AGE) is claimed to promote human health through antioxidant/anti-inflammatory activities with neuroprotective effects. We evaluated the possible beneficial effect of AGE neurologically, pathologically, ultrastructurally, and biochemically in a spinal cord ischemia-reperfusion (I/R) model of rats. Twenty-four Sprague-Dawley rats were divided into three groups: sham (no I/R), I/R, and AGE (I/R+AGE); each group consisted of eight animals. Animals were evaluated neurologically with the Basso, Beattie, and Bresnahan (BBB) scoring system. The spinal cord tissue samples were harvested for pathological and ultrastructural examinations. Oxidative products (Malondialdehyde, nitric oxide), antioxidant enzymes (superoxide dismutase, catalase, glutathione peroxidase), inflammatory cytokines (tissue tumor necrosis factor alpha, interleukin-1), and caspase-3 activity were analyzed. The AGE group had significantly higher BBB scores than the I/R group. Pathologically, AGE group revealed reduced degree of ischemia and spinal cord edema. Ultrastructural results also showed preservation of tissue structure in the AGE group. Oxidative product levels of the I/R group were significantly higher than both the other groups, and antioxidant enzyme levels of AGE group were significantly higher than the I/R group. There was also significant difference between the sham and AGE groups in terms of total antioxidant enzyme levels. Furthermore, AGE treatment significantly reduced the inflammatory cytokines and caspase-3 activity than the I/R group. This study demonstrates the considerable neuroprotective effect of AGE on the neurological, pathological, ultrastructural, and biochemical status of rats with I/R-induced spinal cord injury.

  19. Aged Garlic Extract Attenuates Neuronal Injury in a Rat Model of Spinal Cord Ischemia/Reperfusion Injury.

    PubMed

    Cemil, Berker; Gokce, Emre Cemal; Kahveci, Ramazan; Gokce, Aysun; Aksoy, Nurkan; Sargon, Mustafa Fevzi; Erdogan, Bulent; Kosem, Bahadir

    2016-06-01

    Garlic has been used as a food as well as a component of traditional medicine. Aged garlic extract (AGE) is claimed to promote human health through antioxidant/anti-inflammatory activities with neuroprotective effects. We evaluated the possible beneficial effect of AGE neurologically, pathologically, ultrastructurally, and biochemically in a spinal cord ischemia-reperfusion (I/R) model of rats. Twenty-four Sprague-Dawley rats were divided into three groups: sham (no I/R), I/R, and AGE (I/R+AGE); each group consisted of eight animals. Animals were evaluated neurologically with the Basso, Beattie, and Bresnahan (BBB) scoring system. The spinal cord tissue samples were harvested for pathological and ultrastructural examinations. Oxidative products (Malondialdehyde, nitric oxide), antioxidant enzymes (superoxide dismutase, catalase, glutathione peroxidase), inflammatory cytokines (tissue tumor necrosis factor alpha, interleukin-1), and caspase-3 activity were analyzed. The AGE group had significantly higher BBB scores than the I/R group. Pathologically, AGE group revealed reduced degree of ischemia and spinal cord edema. Ultrastructural results also showed preservation of tissue structure in the AGE group. Oxidative product levels of the I/R group were significantly higher than both the other groups, and antioxidant enzyme levels of AGE group were significantly higher than the I/R group. There was also significant difference between the sham and AGE groups in terms of total antioxidant enzyme levels. Furthermore, AGE treatment significantly reduced the inflammatory cytokines and caspase-3 activity than the I/R group. This study demonstrates the considerable neuroprotective effect of AGE on the neurological, pathological, ultrastructural, and biochemical status of rats with I/R-induced spinal cord injury. PMID:27183321

  20. A Unified Approach to Power Calculation and Sample Size Determination for Random Regression Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shieh, Gwowen

    2007-01-01

    The underlying statistical models for multiple regression analysis are typically attributed to two types of modeling: fixed and random. The procedures for calculating power and sample size under the fixed regression models are well known. However, the literature on random regression models is limited and has been confined to the case of all…

  1. Estimating Age-Specific Immunity and Force of Infection of Varicella Zoster Virus in Norway Using Mixture Models

    PubMed Central

    Rimseliene, Grazina; Flem, Elmira; Freiesleben de Blasio, Birgitte; Scalia Tomba, Gianpaolo; Manfredi, Piero

    2016-01-01

    This study applies mixture modelling to examine age-specific immunity to varicella zoster virus (VZV) infection in Norway based on the first large-scale serological study in the general population. We estimated the seropositive proportions at different ages and calculated the underlying force of infection by using a sample of 2103 residual sera obtained from patients seeking primary and hospital care. A rapid increase in the VZV-associated immunity is observed in the first years of life with 63% of children being immune by age 5. The increase in the immunity levels slows down thereafter, with a large proportion of adults still susceptible by age 20 (around 14.5%), thus at risk of serious sequelae of varicella infection. The corresponding force of infection peaks during the preschool period, subsequently declines to a minimum between ages 10 and 20 years, and afterwards moderately increases to reach a plateau lasting throughout the childbearing period. In comparison with the traditional cut-off approach, mixture modelling used the whole data without producing any inconclusive cases, led to an unbiased classification of individuals between susceptible and immune, and provided a smoother immune profile by age. These findings represent an important step towards any decision about the introduction of varicella vaccination in Norway, as they are a primary input for mathematical transmission models aimed at evaluating potential vaccination scenarios. PMID:27689800

  2. Construction of mass-age curves for the continental crust: An empirical model and an example from the western US

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Depaolo, D. J.; Schubert, G. S.; Linn, Ann

    1988-01-01

    The methodology of determining crustal mass-age curves is discussed. Problems in doing this include determination of model ages and accounting for mixing of materials of different ages during crust forming processes. These difficulties can be overcome with some reasonable assumptions and estimates of rock volumes based on areal proportions. This technique was used to construct a reasonably well constrained mass-age curve for the southwestern U.S. based on isotopic measurements on over 100 samples. The results imply that the crust in this area grew episodically at 2.8, 1.8, and 0.1 Ga. It is estimated that it would take on the order of 10000 to 100000 individual Sm-Nd isotopic measurements to carry out a similar exercise for continental crust world wide.

  3. Part II. Evaluation of 40Ar- 39Ar quartz ages: Implications for fluid inclusion retentivity and determination of initial 40Ar/ 36Ar values in Proterozoic samples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kendrick, M. A.; Miller, J. McL.; Phillips, D.

    2006-05-01

    The argon isotope systematics of vein-quartz samples with two different K-reservoirs have been evaluated in detail. Potassium is hosted by ultra-high-salinity fluid inclusions in quartz samples from the Eloise and Osborne iron-oxide-copper-gold (IOCG) deposits of the Mt Isa Inlier, Australia. In contrast, K is hosted by accidentally trapped mica within lower-salinity fluid inclusions of a sample selected from the Railway Fault, 13 km south of the Mt Isa copper mine, Australia. Imprecise apparent ages have been obtained for all of the samples studied and conclusively demonstrate that quartz fluid inclusions are retentive to Ar and have not leaked over billions of years. IOCG samples that host K in fluid inclusions only, have K/Cl values of <1 and the ages obtained represent the maximum ages for mineralization. In contrast, the Railway Fault samples that include accidentally trapped mica have K/Cl values of ≫1. Excess 40Ar E plus Cl hosted by fluid inclusions, and radiogenic 40Ar R plus K, are strongly correlated in these samples and define a plane in 3D 40Ar- 36Ar-K-Cl space. In this case, the plane yields an 'excess 40Ar E' corrected age of ˜1030 Ma that is 100's of Ma younger than nearby Cu-mineralization at Mt Isa. The age is interpreted to reflect 40Ar-loss from the accidentally trapped mica into the surrounding fluid inclusions, and is not related to the samples' age of formation. The initial 40Ar/ 36Ar value of fluid inclusions is widely used to provide information on fluid origin. For the IOCG samples that host K in fluid inclusions only, the initial 40Ar/ 36Ar values are close to the measured values at every temperature of stepped heating experiments. For samples that include accidentally trapped mica, the correction for post-entrapment radiogenic 40Ar R production is significant. Furthermore, because 39Ar K present in accidentally trapped mica crystals is released at different temperatures to radiogenic 40Ar R lost to the surrounding fluid inclusions

  4. Predictors of vitamin D biochemical status in a large sample of middle-aged male smokers from Finland

    PubMed Central

    Brock, KE; Graubard, BI; Fraser, DR; Weinstein, SJ; Stolzenberg-Solomon, RZ; Lim, U; Tangrea, JA; Virtamo, J; Ke, L; Snyder, K; Albanes, D

    2012-01-01

    Objectives As vitamin D deficiency is considered to be more common in regions with little solar ultraviolet light in winter, the aim of the present study was to investigate predictors of vitamin D status by season within a large sample of male smokers from Finland, a country where there is negligible solar ultraviolet light in winter. Methods Vitamin D (measured by 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) nmol/L) and other serum constituents were assayed and measured anthropometry, and self-reported dietary intake and physical activity (PA) were obtained and analysed by step-wise multiple linear and logistic regression in 2,271 middle-aged Finnish male smokers. Results Twenty-seven % of the population in winter and 17% in summer had serum 25(OH)D levels < 25 nmol/L, respectively. In summer, in multiple logistic regression analyses with adjustment for confounding and other predictors, high dietary vitamin D (OR=3.6; 95% CI= 1.5–8.5), some leisure time PA (OR=2.0; 95% CI=1.3–3.1) and having a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 21 kg/m2 compared to < 21 kg/m2 (OR=2.6; 95% CI=1.3–5.0) were associated with 25(OH)D ≥ 25 nmol/L. In winter, additional modifiable factors were occupational PA (OR=1.6; 95% CI=1.1–2.5), and high fish (OR=3.1; 95% CI=1.7–6.2) or poultry consumption (OR=1.7; 95%CI=1.1–2.7). Predictors from linear regression analyses of continuous levels of 25(OH)D were similar to the logistic regression analyses of 25(OH)D < 25 nmol/L. Conclusion In this Finnish sample more vitamin D intake, PA and having a BMI ≥ 21 may play important modifiable roles in maintaining an adequate vitamin D status. PMID:20051977

  5. Aging and Predicting Inferences: A Diffusion Model Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKoon, Gail; Ratcliff, Roger

    2013-01-01

    In the domain of discourse processing, it has been claimed that older adults (60-0-year-olds) are less likely to encode and remember some kinds of information from texts than young adults. The experiment described here shows that they do make a particular kind of inference to the same extent that college-age adults do. The inferences examined were…

  6. Analysis of the machinery and intermediates of the 5hmC-mediated DNA demethylation pathway in aging on samples from the MARK-AGE Study

    PubMed Central

    Valentini, Elisabetta; Zampieri, Michele; Malavolta, Marco; Bacalini, Maria Giulia; Calabrese, Roberta; Guastafierro, Tiziana; Reale, Anna; Franceschi, Claudio; Hervonen, Antti; Koller, Bernhard; Bernhardt, Jürgen; Slagboom, P. Eline; Toussaint, Olivier; Sikora, Ewa; Gonos, Efstathios S.; Breusing, Nicolle; Grune, Tilman; Jansen, Eugène; Dollé, Martijn E.T.; Moreno-Villanueva, María; Sindlinger, Thilo; Bürkle, Alexander; Ciccarone, Fabio; Caiafa, Paola

    2016-01-01

    Gradual changes in the DNA methylation landscape occur throughout aging virtually in all human tissues. A widespread reduction of 5-methylcytosine (5mC), associated with highly reproducible site-specific hypermethylation, characterizes the genome in aging. Therefore, an equilibrium seems to exist between general and directional deregulating events concerning DNA methylation controllers, which may underpin the age-related epigenetic changes. In this context, 5mC-hydroxylases (TET enzymes) are new potential players. In fact, TETs catalyze the stepwise oxidation of 5mC to 5-hydroxymethylcytosine (5hmC), 5-formylcytosine (5fC) and 5-carboxylcytosine (5caC), driving the DNA demethylation process based on thymine DNA glycosylase (TDG)-mediated DNA repair pathway. The present paper reports the expression of DNA hydroxymethylation components, the levels of 5hmC and of its derivatives in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of age-stratified donors recruited in several European countries in the context of the EU Project ‘MARK-AGE’. The results provide evidence for an age-related decline of TET1, TET3 and TDG gene expression along with a decrease of 5hmC and an accumulation of 5caC. These associations were independent of confounding variables, including recruitment center, gender and leukocyte composition. The observed impairment of 5hmC-mediated DNA demethylation pathway in blood cells may lead to aberrant transcriptional programs in the elderly. PMID:27587280

  7. Genetic simplex modeling of Eysenck's dimensions of personality in a sample of young Australian twins.

    PubMed

    Gillespie, Nathan A; Evans, David E; Wright, Margie M; Martin, Nicholas G

    2004-12-01

    The relative stability and magnitude of genetic and environmental effects underlying major dimensions of adolescent personality across time were investigated. The Junior Eysenck Personality Questionnaire was administered to over 540 twin pairs at ages 12, 14 and 16 years. Their personality scores were analyzed using genetic simplex modeling which explicitly took into account the longitudinal nature of the data. With the exception of the dimension lie, multivariate model fitting results revealed that familial aggregation was entirely explained by additive genetic effects. Results from simplex model fitting suggest that large proportions of the additive genetic variance observed at ages 14 and 16 years could be explained by genetic effects present at the age of 12 years. There was also evidence for smaller but significant genetic innovations at 14 and 16 years of age for male and female neuroticism, at 14 years for male extraversion, at 14 and 16 years for female psychoticism, and at 14 years for male psychoticism.

  8. Estimating species - area relationships by modeling abundance and frequency subject to incomplete sampling.

    PubMed

    Yamaura, Yuichi; Connor, Edward F; Royle, J Andrew; Itoh, Katsuo; Sato, Kiyoshi; Taki, Hisatomo; Mishima, Yoshio

    2016-07-01

    Models and data used to describe species-area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species-area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species-area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density-area relationships and occurrence probability-area relationships can alter the form of species-area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied to a

  9. Estimating species - area relationships by modeling abundance and frequency subject to incomplete sampling.

    PubMed

    Yamaura, Yuichi; Connor, Edward F; Royle, J Andrew; Itoh, Katsuo; Sato, Kiyoshi; Taki, Hisatomo; Mishima, Yoshio

    2016-07-01

    Models and data used to describe species-area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species-area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species-area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density-area relationships and occurrence probability-area relationships can alter the form of species-area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied to a

  10. Estimating species – area relationships by modeling abundance and frequency subject to incomplete sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yamaura, Yuichi; Connor, Edward F.; Royle, Andy; Itoh, Katsuo; Sato, Kiyoshi; Taki, Hisatomo; Mishima, Yoshio

    2016-01-01

    Models and data used to describe species–area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species–area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species–area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density–area relationships and occurrence probability–area relationships can alter the form of species–area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied

  11. Effects of Sample Size on Estimates of Population Growth Rates Calculated with Matrix Models

    PubMed Central

    Fiske, Ian J.; Bruna, Emilio M.; Bolker, Benjamin M.

    2008-01-01

    Background Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (λ) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of λ–Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of λ due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of λ. Methodology/Principal Findings Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating λ for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of λ with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. Conclusions/Significance We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities. PMID:18769483

  12. Age at marriage in Malaysia: a hazard model of marriage timing.

    PubMed

    Anderson, K H; Hill, M A; Butler, J S

    1987-08-01

    "This paper estimates a proportional hazards model for the timing of age at marriage of women in Malaysia. We hypothesize that age at marriage responds significantly to differences in male and female occupations, race, and age. We find considerable empirical support for the relevance of economic variables in determining age at marriage as well as evidence of strong differences in marriage patterns across races." PMID:12280709

  13. Modeling the Information Age Combat Model: An Agent-Based Simulation of Network Centric Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Deller, Sean; Rabadi, Ghaith A.; Bell, Michael I.; Bowling, Shannon R.; Tolk, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    The Information Age Combat Model (IACM) was introduced by Cares in 2005 to contribute to the development of an understanding of the influence of connectivity on force effectiveness that can eventually lead to quantitative prediction and guidelines for design and employment. The structure of the IACM makes it clear that the Perron-Frobenius Eigenvalue is a quantifiable metric with which to measure the organization of a networked force. The results of recent experiments presented in Deller, et aI., (2009) indicate that the value of the Perron-Frobenius Eigenvalue is a significant measurement of the performance of an Information Age combat force. This was accomplished through the innovative use of an agent-based simulation to model the IACM and represents an initial contribution towards a new generation of combat models that are net-centric instead of using the current platform-centric approach. This paper describes the intent, challenges, design, and initial results of this agent-based simulation model.

  14. Aging stem cells. A Werner syndrome stem cell model unveils heterochromatin alterations as a driver of human aging.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Weiqi; Li, Jingyi; Suzuki, Keiichiro; Qu, Jing; Wang, Ping; Zhou, Junzhi; Liu, Xiaomeng; Ren, Ruotong; Xu, Xiuling; Ocampo, Alejandro; Yuan, Tingting; Yang, Jiping; Li, Ying; Shi, Liang; Guan, Dee; Pan, Huize; Duan, Shunlei; Ding, Zhichao; Li, Mo; Yi, Fei; Bai, Ruijun; Wang, Yayu; Chen, Chang; Yang, Fuquan; Li, Xiaoyu; Wang, Zimei; Aizawa, Emi; Goebl, April; Soligalla, Rupa Devi; Reddy, Pradeep; Esteban, Concepcion Rodriguez; Tang, Fuchou; Liu, Guang-Hui; Belmonte, Juan Carlos Izpisua

    2015-06-01

    Werner syndrome (WS) is a premature aging disorder caused by WRN protein deficiency. Here, we report on the generation of a human WS model in human embryonic stem cells (ESCs). Differentiation of WRN-null ESCs to mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) recapitulates features of premature cellular aging, a global loss of H3K9me3, and changes in heterochromatin architecture. We show that WRN associates with heterochromatin proteins SUV39H1 and HP1α and nuclear lamina-heterochromatin anchoring protein LAP2β. Targeted knock-in of catalytically inactive SUV39H1 in wild-type MSCs recapitulates accelerated cellular senescence, resembling WRN-deficient MSCs. Moreover, decrease in WRN and heterochromatin marks are detected in MSCs from older individuals. Our observations uncover a role for WRN in maintaining heterochromatin stability and highlight heterochromatin disorganization as a potential determinant of human aging.

  15. Stratigraphy and wiggle-matching-based age-depth model of late Holocene marine sediments in Beppu Bay, southwest Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuwae, Michinobu; Yamamoto, Masanobu; Ikehara, Ken; Irino, Tomohisa; Takemura, Keiji; Sagawa, Takuya; Sakamoto, Tatsuhiko; Ikehara, Minoru; Takeoka, Hidetaka

    2013-06-01

    We analyzed the lithology, magnetic susceptibility, bulk density, and X-ray radiographs of 14 sediment cores (1-9 m long) from Beppu Bay in the western Seto Inland Sea, Japan, to establish the late Holocene stratigraphy in the deepest part of the bay and to develop an age-depth model for the sediments there. The cores contained 18 thick (major event) high-density layers (16 turbidites and two volcanic ash; >1 cm thick), and both lithological observations and density variations in the hemipelagic mud that is dominant in the cores revealed a further 55 thin (minor event) high-density layers (<1 cm thick). Analyses of color properties and opal and sand contents of the hemipelagic mud defined nine lithological units. After stratigraphic correlation of the event layers among cores, we projected 14C dates onto a single composite core. Forty-two AMS 14C dates from bivalve mollusk shells were used to construct a wiggle-matching-based age-depth model for the late Holocene sequence and to determine the local reservoir effect (ΔR). The age-depth model showed a sedimentation rate of 0.23-0.30 cm/yr for a 7.8 m-long composite core and an age of ˜2800 cal yr BP at the base. Wiggle-matching provided ΔR values of 115-155 yr for late Holocene bivalve samples from Beppu Bay, which is consistent with previous estimates reported from coastal areas near the Kuroshio Front. Comparison of wiggle-matching-derived ages of thick turbidites with the ages of historical earthquakes showed differences within ±25 yr. Our study demonstrated that wiggle matching with optimal fitting based on either the weighted least-squares or maximum likelihood method can minimize the effect of scatter of age data due to reworking and burrowing of bivalves and thus improve the accuracy of age-depth models.

  16. Network Model-Assisted Inference from Respondent-Driven Sampling Data

    PubMed Central

    Gile, Krista J.; Handcock, Mark S.

    2015-01-01

    Summary Respondent-Driven Sampling is a widely-used method for sampling hard-to-reach human populations by link-tracing over their social networks. Inference from such data requires specialized techniques because the sampling process is both partially beyond the control of the researcher, and partially implicitly defined. Therefore, it is not generally possible to directly compute the sampling weights for traditional design-based inference, and likelihood inference requires modeling the complex sampling process. As an alternative, we introduce a model-assisted approach, resulting in a design-based estimator leveraging a working network model. We derive a new class of estimators for population means and a corresponding bootstrap standard error estimator. We demonstrate improved performance compared to existing estimators, including adjustment for an initial convenience sample. We also apply the method and an extension to the estimation of HIV prevalence in a high-risk population. PMID:26640328

  17. All age-depth models are wrong, but are getting better

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trachsel, Mathias; Chipperfield, Joseph D.; Telford, Richard J.

    2015-04-01

    Construction of accurate age-depth relationships and realistic assessment of their uncertainties is one of the fundamental prerequisites for comparing and correlating Late Quaternary stratigraphic proxy records. Four widely used age-depth modelling routines: i) clam, ii) OxCal, iii) Bacon, and iv) Bchron were tested using radiocarbon dates simulated from varved sediment stratigraphies. All methods produced average age-depth models that were close to the true varve age, but the uncertainty estimation differed considerably among models. Age uncertainties were underestimated by clam, whereas age uncertainties produced by Bchron were too large. Using OxCal and Bacon, setting of model specific parameters influenced the estimated uncertainties, which varied from too large to too small. Still, compared to the study by Telford et al. (2004), the use of Bayesian age-depth models greatly improved on the assessment of uncertainties of age-depth models. Reference: Telford et al. (2004), All age-depth models are wrong: but how badly? Quaternary Science Reviews, 23,1-5.

  18. Preparing the workforce for healthy aging programs: the Skills for Healthy Aging Resources and Programs (SHARP) model.

    PubMed

    Frank, Janet C; Altpeter, Mary; Damron-Rodriguez, JoAnn; Driggers, Joann; Lachenmayr, Susan; Manning, Colleen; Martinez, Dana M; Price, Rachel M; Robinson, Patricia

    2014-10-01

    Current public health and aging service agency personnel have little training in gerontology, and virtually no training in evidence-based health promotion and disease management programs for older adults. These programs are rapidly becoming the future of our community-based long-term care support system. The purpose of this project was to develop and test a model community college career technical education program, Skills for Healthy Aging Resources and Programs (SHARP), for undergraduate college students, current personnel in aging service and community organizations, and others interested in retraining. A multidisciplinary cross-sector team from disciplines of public health, sociology, gerontology and nursing developed four competency-based courses that focus on healthy aging, behavior change strategies, program management, an internship, and an option for leader training in the Chronic Disease Self-Management Program. To enhance implementation and fidelity, intensive faculty development training was provided to all instructors and community agency partners. Baseline and postprogram evaluation of competencies for faculty and students was conducted. Process evaluation for both groups focused on satisfaction with the curricula and suggestions for program improvement. SHARP has been piloted five times at two community colleges. Trainees (n = 113) were primarily community college students (n = 108) and current aging service personnel (n = 5). Statistically significant improvements in all competencies were found for both faculty and students. Process evaluation outcomes identified the needed logical and component adaptations to enhance the feasibility of program implementation, dissemination, and student satisfaction. The SHARP program provides a well-tested, evidence-based effective model for addressing workforce preparation in support of healthy aging service program expansion and delivery.

  19. Age, period, and cohort effects on maternal mortality: a linear logit model.

    PubMed

    Tu, E J; Chuang, J L

    1983-01-01

    This analysis was aimed at disentangling the age, period, and cohort effects on the decline in maternal mortality in the 1917-77 period in New York State. New York maternal mortality rates were consistentley lower than US rates from 191-56, but fell considerably more slowly than national rates since 1957. Cohort analysis can potentially provide separate measures of age, period, and cohort effects by use of linear ligit models. Comparison of various age-period-cohort linear logit models on the logits of maternal mortality rates indicated that period and age effects are the dominant influences on maternal mortality. Cohortship did not make a significant contribution after age and period were already in the model. Age parameter results suggest that the 20-24 year age group faces the lowest maternal mortality risk, and risk increases rapidly with age after age 30 years. The infuctuation in the residuals for the 40-44 year age group is slightly higher due to the stochastic variation in diminishing small numbers of maternal deaths and pregnancies in this group. In addition, adding the period dimension after adjustment for age had a greater impact than adding the cohort dimension after adjustment for age. The implication of these findings is that, as a set, changes in temporal variables that cut across cohorts seem to be more important than those variables that distinguish cohorts.

  20. Phospholipase A2 – nexus of aging, oxidative stress, neuronal excitability, and functional decline of the aging nervous system? Insights from a snail model system of neuronal aging and age-associated memory impairment

    PubMed Central

    Hermann, Petra M.; Watson, Shawn N.; Wildering, Willem C.

    2014-01-01

    The aging brain undergoes a range of changes varying from subtle structural and physiological changes causing only minor functional decline under healthy normal aging conditions, to severe cognitive or neurological impairment associated with extensive loss of neurons and circuits due to age-associated neurodegenerative disease conditions. Understanding how biological aging processes affect the brain and how they contribute to the onset and progress of age-associated neurodegenerative diseases is a core research goal in contemporary neuroscience. This review focuses on the idea that changes in intrinsic neuronal electrical excitability associated with (per)oxidation of membrane lipids and activation of phospholipase A2 (PLA2) enzymes are an important mechanism of learning and memory failure under normal aging conditions. Specifically, in the context of this special issue on the biology of cognitive aging we portray the opportunities offered by the identifiable neurons and behaviorally characterized neural circuits of the freshwater snail Lymnaea stagnalis in neuronal aging research and recapitulate recent insights indicating a key role of lipid peroxidation-induced PLA2 as instruments of aging, oxidative stress and inflammation in age-associated neuronal and memory impairment in this model system. The findings are discussed in view of accumulating evidence suggesting involvement of analogous mechanisms in the etiology of age-associated dysfunction and disease of the human and mammalian brain. PMID:25538730

  1. [Outlier sample discriminating methods for building calibration model in melons quality detecting using NIR spectra].

    PubMed

    Tian, Hai-Qing; Wang, Chun-Guang; Zhang, Hai-Jun; Yu, Zhi-Hong; Li, Jian-Kang

    2012-11-01

    Outlier samples strongly influence the precision of the calibration model in soluble solids content measurement of melons using NIR Spectra. According to the possible sources of outlier samples, three methods (predicted concentration residual test; Chauvenet test; leverage and studentized residual test) were used to discriminate these outliers respectively. Nine suspicious outliers were detected from calibration set which including 85 fruit samples. Considering the 9 suspicious outlier samples maybe contain some no-outlier samples, they were reclaimed to the model one by one to see whether they influence the model and prediction precision or not. In this way, 5 samples which were helpful to the model joined in calibration set again, and a new model was developed with the correlation coefficient (r) 0. 889 and root mean square errors for calibration (RMSEC) 0.6010 Brix. For 35 unknown samples, the root mean square errors prediction (RMSEP) was 0.854 degrees Brix. The performance of this model was more better than that developed with non outlier was eliminated from calibration set (r = 0.797, RMSEC= 0.849 degrees Brix, RMSEP = 1.19 degrees Brix), and more representative and stable with all 9 samples were eliminated from calibration set (r = 0.892, RMSEC = 0.605 degrees Brix, RMSEP = 0.862 degrees).

  2. Age-Related Changes in Predictive Capacity Versus Internal Model Adaptability: Electrophysiological Evidence that Individual Differences Outweigh Effects of Age.

    PubMed

    Bornkessel-Schlesewsky, Ina; Philipp, Markus; Alday, Phillip M; Kretzschmar, Franziska; Grewe, Tanja; Gumpert, Maike; Schumacher, Petra B; Schlesewsky, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    Hierarchical predictive coding has been identified as a possible unifying principle of brain function, and recent work in cognitive neuroscience has examined how it may be affected by age-related changes. Using language comprehension as a test case, the present study aimed to dissociate age-related changes in prediction generation versus internal model adaptation following a prediction error. Event-related brain potentials (ERPs) were measured in a group of older adults (60-81 years; n = 40) as they read sentences of the form "The opposite of black is white/yellow/nice." Replicating previous work in young adults, results showed a target-related P300 for the expected antonym ("white"; an effect assumed to reflect a prediction match), and a graded N400 effect for the two incongruous conditions (i.e. a larger N400 amplitude for the incongruous continuation not related to the expected antonym, "nice," versus the incongruous associated condition, "yellow"). These effects were followed by a late positivity, again with a larger amplitude in the incongruous non-associated versus incongruous associated condition. Analyses using linear mixed-effects models showed that the target-related P300 effect and the N400 effect for the incongruous non-associated condition were both modulated by age, thus suggesting that age-related changes affect both prediction generation and model adaptation. However, effects of age were outweighed by the interindividual variability of ERP responses, as reflected in the high proportion of variance captured by the inclusion of by-condition random slopes for participants and items. We thus argue that - at both a neurophysiological and a functional level - the notion of general differences between language processing in young and older adults may only be of limited use, and that future research should seek to better understand the causes of interindividual variability in the ERP responses of older adults and its relation to cognitive performance. PMID

  3. Muscle wasting in myotonic dystrophies: a model of premature aging

    PubMed Central

    Mateos-Aierdi, Alba Judith; Goicoechea, Maria; Aiastui, Ana; Fernández-Torrón, Roberto; Garcia-Puga, Mikel; Matheu, Ander; López de Munain, Adolfo

    2015-01-01

    Myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1 or Steinert’s disease) and type 2 (DM2) are multisystem disorders of genetic origin. Progressive muscular weakness, atrophy and myotonia are the most prominent neuromuscular features of these diseases, while other clinical manifestations such as cardiomyopathy, insulin resistance and cataracts are also common. From a clinical perspective, most DM symptoms are interpreted as a result of an accelerated aging (cataracts, muscular weakness and atrophy, cognitive decline, metabolic dysfunction, etc.), including an increased risk of developing tumors. From this point of view, DM1 could be described as a progeroid syndrome since a notable age-dependent dysfunction of all systems occurs. The underlying molecular disorder in DM1 consists of the existence of a pathological (CTG) triplet expansion in the 3′ untranslated region (UTR) of the Dystrophia Myotonica Protein Kinase (DMPK) gene, whereas (CCTG)n repeats in the first intron of the Cellular Nucleic acid Binding Protein/Zinc Finger Protein 9 (CNBP/ZNF9) gene cause DM2. The expansions are transcribed into (CUG)n and (CCUG)n-containing RNA, respectively, which form secondary structures and sequester RNA-binding proteins, such as the splicing factor muscleblind-like protein (MBNL), forming nuclear aggregates known as foci. Other splicing factors, such as CUGBP, are also disrupted, leading to a spliceopathy of a large number of downstream genes linked to the clinical features of these diseases. Skeletal muscle regeneration relies on muscle progenitor cells, known as satellite cells, which are activated after muscle damage, and which proliferate and differentiate to muscle cells, thus regenerating the damaged tissue. Satellite cell dysfunction seems to be a common feature of both age-dependent muscle degeneration (sarcopenia) and muscle wasting in DM and other muscle degenerative diseases. This review aims to describe the cellular, molecular and macrostructural processes involved in the

  4. Constitutive modeling of the aging viscoelastic properties of portland cement paste

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grasley, Zachary C.; Lange, David A.

    2007-12-01

    Analytical approaches for modeling aging viscoelastic behavior of concrete include the time-shift approach (analogous to time-temperature superposition), the solidification theory, and the dissolution-precipitation approach. The aging viscoelastic properties of concrete are generally attributed solely to the cement paste phase since the aggregates are typically linear elastic. In this study, the aging viscoelastic behavior of four different cement pastes has been measured and modeled according to both the time-shift approach and the solidification theory. The inability of each individual model to fully characterize the aging viscoelastic response of the materials provides insight into the mechanisms for aging of the viscoelastic properties of cement paste and concrete. A model that considers aging due to solidification in combination with inherent aging of the cement paste gel (modeled using the time-shift approach) more accurately predicted the aging viscoelastic behavior of portland cement paste than either the solidification or time-shift approaches independently. The results provide evidence that solidification and other intrinsic gel aging mechanisms are concurrently active in the aging process of cementitious materials.

  5. The Statewide Training Model for a Continuing Education Certificate in Gerontology in Religion and Aging.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Barbara, Ed.; Payne, Barbara, Ed.

    This training model is a guide for developing statewide training for a continuing education certificate in gerontology in religion and aging. It is designed for use by gerontology educators, state office of aging executives, and leaders of religious judicatories. Section I begins with a description of the training model and covers where and how to…

  6. Joint Bayesian analysis of birthweight and censored gestational age using finite mixture models

    PubMed Central

    Schwartz, Scott L.; Gelfand, Alan E.; Miranda, Marie L.

    2016-01-01

    Birthweight and gestational age are closely related and represent important indicators of a healthy pregnancy. Customary modeling for birthweight is conditional on gestational age. However, joint modeling directly addresses the relationship between gestational age and birthweight, and provides increased flexibility and interpretation as well as a strategy to avoid using gestational age as an intermediate variable. Previous proposals have utilized finite mixtures of bivariate regression models to incorporate well-established risk factors into analysis (e.g. sex and birth order of the baby, maternal age, race, and tobacco use) while examining the non-Gaussian shape of the joint birthweight and gestational age distribution. We build on this approach by demonstrating the inferential (prognostic) benefits of joint modeling (e.g. investigation of `age inappropriate' outcomes like small for gestational age) and hence re-emphasize the importance of capturing the non-Gaussian distributional shapes. We additionally extend current models through a latent specification which admits interval-censored gestational age. We work within a Bayesian framework which enables inference beyond customary parameter estimation and prediction as well as exact uncertainty assessment. The model is applied to a portion of the 2003–2006 North Carolina Detailed Birth Record data (n=336129) available through the Children's Environmental Health Initiative and is fitted using the Bayesian methodology and Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. PMID:20575047

  7. [Influence of sample surface roughness on mathematical model of NIR quantitative analysis of wood density].

    PubMed

    Huang, An-Min; Fei, Ben-Hua; Jiang, Ze-Hui; Hse, Chung-Yun

    2007-09-01

    Near infrared spectroscopy is widely used as a quantitative method, and the main multivariate techniques consist of regression methods used to build prediction models, however, the accuracy of analysis results will be affected by many factors. In the present paper, the influence of different sample roughness on the mathematical model of NIR quantitative analysis of wood density was studied. The result of experiments showed that if the roughness of predicted samples was consistent with that of calibrated samples, the result was good, otherwise the error would be much higher. The roughness-mixed model was more flexible and adaptable to different sample roughness. The prediction ability of the roughness-mixed model was much better than that of the single-roughness model.

  8. Incorporating harvest rates into the sex-age-kill model for white-tailed deer

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Norton, Andrew S.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Rosenberry, Christopher S.; Wallingford, Bret D.

    2013-01-01

    Although monitoring population trends is an essential component of game species management, wildlife managers rarely have complete counts of abundance. Often, they rely on population models to monitor population trends. As imperfect representations of real-world populations, models must be rigorously evaluated to be applied appropriately. Previous research has evaluated population models for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus); however, the precision and reliability of these models when tested against empirical measures of variability and bias largely is untested. We were able to statistically evaluate the Pennsylvania sex-age-kill (PASAK) population model using realistic error measured using data from 1,131 radiocollared white-tailed deer in Pennsylvania from 2002 to 2008. We used these data and harvest data (number killed, age-sex structure, etc.) to estimate precision of abundance estimates, identify the most efficient harvest data collection with respect to precision of parameter estimates, and evaluate PASAK model robustness to violation of assumptions. Median coefficient of variation (CV) estimates by Wildlife Management Unit, 13.2% in the most recent year, were slightly above benchmarks recommended for managing game species populations. Doubling reporting rates by hunters or doubling the number of deer checked by personnel in the field reduced median CVs to recommended levels. The PASAK model was robust to errors in estimates for adult male harvest rates but was sensitive to errors in subadult male harvest rates, especially in populations with lower harvest rates. In particular, an error in subadult (1.5-yr-old) male harvest rates resulted in the opposite error in subadult male, adult female, and juvenile population estimates. Also, evidence of a greater harvest probability for subadult female deer when compared with adult (≥2.5-yr-old) female deer resulted in a 9.5% underestimate of the population using the PASAK model. Because obtaining

  9. The primary target model of energetic ions penetration in thin botanic samples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yugang; Du, Guanghua; Xue, Jianming; Liu, Feng; Wang, Sixue; Yan, Sha; Zhao, Weijiang

    2002-08-01

    The ion transmission spectra of very low current MeV H + ions through two kinds of botanic samples, kidney bean slices and onion endocuticle, were carried out. The experimental spectra confirmed the botanic sample is inhomogeneous in mass density. A target model with local density approximation was suggested to describe the penetration of the energetic ions in such kind of materials. From the fitting of proton transmission spectra of two-energies, this target model was verified primarily. Including the influence of surface roughness and irradiation damage, this target model could be improved to predict the profile of penetration depth and range distribution of the energetic ions in the botanic samples.

  10. Simulation of Tritium Transport and Groundwater Age in a Variably Saturated 3D Model, Lake Rotorua Catchment, New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daughney, C.; Toews, M. W.; Morgenstern, U.; Cornaton, F. J.; Jackson, B. M.

    2013-12-01

    Lake Rotorua is a focus of culture and tourism in New Zealand. The lake's water quality has declined since the 1970s, partly due to nutrient inputs that reach the lake via the groundwater system. Improved land use management within the catchment requires prediction of the spatial variations of groundwater transit time from land surface to the lake, and from this the prediction of current and future nutrient inflows to the lake. This study combines the two main methods currently available for determination of water age: numerical groundwater models and hydrological tracers. A steady-state 3D finite element model was constructed to simulate groundwater flow and transport of tritium and age at the catchment scale (555 km2). The model materials were defined using a 3D geologic model and included ignimbrites, rhyolites, alluvial and lake bottom sediments. The steady-state saturated groundwater flow model was calibrated using observed groundwater levels in boreholes (111 locations) and stream flow measurements from groundwater-fed streams and springs (61 locations). Hydraulic conductivities and Cauchy boundary conditions associated with the streams, springs and lake were parameterized. The transport parameters for the model were calibrated using 191 tritium samples from 105 locations (springs, streams and boreholes), with most locations having two sample dates. The transport model used steady-state flow, but simulated the transient transport and decay of tritium from rainfall recharge between 1945 and 2012. An additional 1D unsaturated sub-model was added to account for tritium decay from the ground surface to the water table. The sub-model is linked on top of the 3D model, and uses the water table depths and material properties from the 3D model. The adjustable calibration parameters for the transport model were porosity and van Genuchten parameters related to the unsaturated sub-models. Calibration of the flow model was achieved using a combination of automated least

  11. A simple approach to power and sample size calculations in logistic regression and Cox regression models.

    PubMed

    Vaeth, Michael; Skovlund, Eva

    2004-06-15

    For a given regression problem it is possible to identify a suitably defined equivalent two-sample problem such that the power or sample size obtained for the two-sample problem also applies to the regression problem. For a standard linear regression model the equivalent two-sample problem is easily identified, but for generalized linear models and for Cox regression models the situation is more complicated. An approximately equivalent two-sample problem may, however, also be identified here. In particular, we show that for logistic regression and Cox regression models the equivalent two-sample problem is obtained by selecting two equally sized samples for which the parameters differ by a value equal to the slope times twice the standard deviation of the independent variable and further requiring that the overall expected number of events is unchanged. In a simulation study we examine the validity of this approach to power calculations in logistic regression and Cox regression models. Several different covariate distributions are considered for selected values of the overall response probability and a range of alternatives. For the Cox regression model we consider both constant and non-constant hazard rates. The results show that in general the approach is remarkably accurate even in relatively small samples. Some discrepancies are, however, found in small samples with few events and a highly skewed covariate distribution. Comparison with results based on alternative methods for logistic regression models with a single continuous covariate indicates that the proposed method is at least as good as its competitors. The method is easy to implement and therefore provides a simple way to extend the range of problems that can be covered by the usual formulas for power and sample size determination.

  12. Fruit and vegetable intake and body mass index in a large sample of middle-aged Australian men and women.

    PubMed

    Charlton, Karen; Kowal, Paul; Soriano, Melinda M; Williams, Sharon; Banks, Emily; Vo, Kha; Byles, Julie

    2014-06-17

    Dietary guidelines around the world recommend increased intakes of fruits and non-starchy vegetables for the prevention of chronic diseases and possibly obesity. This study aimed to describe the association between body mass index (BMI) and habitual fruit and vegetable consumption in a large sample of 246,995 Australian adults aged 45 + year who had been recruited for the "45 and Up" cohort study. Fruit and vegetable intake was assessed using validated short questions, while weight and height were self-reported. Multinomial logistic regression was used, by sex, to assess the association between fruit and vegetable intake and BMI. Compared to the referent normal weight category (BMI 18.5 to 24.9), the odds ratio (OR) of being in the highest vegetable intake quartile was 1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.14) for overweight women (BMI 25.0-29.9) and 1.18 (95% CI 1.12-1.24) for obese women. The association was in the opposite direction for fruit for overweight (OR 0.85; 95% CI 0.80-0.90) and obese women (OR 0.75; 95% CI 0.69-0.80). Obese and overweight women had higher odds of being in the highest intake quartile for combined fruit and vegetable intake, and were more likely to meet the "2 and 5" target or to have five or more serves of fruit and vegetables per day. In contrast, overweight men were less likely to be in high intake quartiles and less likely to meet recommended target of 5 per day, but there was no consistent relationship between obesity and fruit and vegetable intake. Underweight women and underweight men were less likely to be in the highest intake quartiles or to meet the recommended targets. These data suggest that improving adherence to dietary targets for fruit and vegetables may be a dietary strategy to overcome overweight among men, but that overweight and obese women are already adhering to these targets. The association between fruit and vegetable intake and underweight in adults suggests that improving fruit and vegetables intakes are

  13. Sample Size Requirements in Single- and Multiphase Growth Mixture Models: A Monte Carlo Simulation Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Su-Young

    2012-01-01

    Just as growth mixture models are useful with single-phase longitudinal data, multiphase growth mixture models can be used with multiple-phase longitudinal data. One of the practically important issues in single- and multiphase growth mixture models is the sample size requirements for accurate estimation. In a Monte Carlo simulation study, the…

  14. A New Symptom Model for Autism Cross-Validated in an Independent Sample

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boomsma, A.; Van Lang, N. D. J.; De Jonge, M. V.; De Bildt, A. A.; Van Engeland, H.; Minderaa, R. B.

    2008-01-01

    Background: Results from several studies indicated that a symptom model other than the DSM triad might better describe symptom domains of autism. The present study focused on a) investigating the stability of a new symptom model for autism by cross-validating it in an independent sample and b) examining the invariance of the model regarding three…

  15. A Comparison of Sequential Sampling Models for Two-Choice Reaction Time

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ratcliff, Roger; Smith, Philip L.

    2004-01-01

    The authors evaluated 4 sequential sampling models for 2-choice decisions--the Wiener diffusion, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) diffusion, accumulator, and Poisson counter models--by fitting them to the response time (RT) distributions and accuracy data from 3 experiments. Each of the models was augmented with assumptions of variability across trials in…

  16. A statistical model including age to predict passenger postures in the rear seats of automobiles.

    PubMed

    Park, Jangwoon; Ebert, Sheila M; Reed, Matthew P; Hallman, Jason J

    2016-06-01

    Few statistical models of rear seat passenger posture have been published, and none has taken into account the effects of occupant age. This study developed new statistical models for predicting passenger postures in the rear seats of automobiles. Postures of 89 adults with a wide range of age and body size were measured in a laboratory mock-up in seven seat configurations. Posture-prediction models for female and male passengers were separately developed by stepwise regression using age, body dimensions, seat configurations and two-way interactions as potential predictors. Passenger posture was significantly associated with age and the effects of other two-way interaction variables depended on age. A set of posture-prediction models are presented for women and men, and the prediction results are compared with previously published models. This study is the first study of passenger posture to include a large cohort of older passengers and the first to report a significant effect of age for adults. The presented models can be used to position computational and physical human models for vehicle design and assessment. Practitioner Summary: The significant effects of age, body dimensions and seat configuration on rear seat passenger posture were identified. The models can be used to accurately position computational human models or crash test dummies for older passengers in known rear seat configurations.

  17. A statistical model including age to predict passenger postures in the rear seats of automobiles.

    PubMed

    Park, Jangwoon; Ebert, Sheila M; Reed, Matthew P; Hallman, Jason J

    2016-06-01

    Few statistical models of rear seat passenger posture have been published, and none has taken into account the effects of occupant age. This study developed new statistical models for predicting passenger postures in the rear seats of automobiles. Postures of 89 adults with a wide range of age and body size were measured in a laboratory mock-up in seven seat configurations. Posture-prediction models for female and male passengers were separately developed by stepwise regression using age, body dimensions, seat configurations and two-way interactions as potential predictors. Passenger posture was significantly associated with age and the effects of other two-way interaction variables depended on age. A set of posture-prediction models are presented for women and men, and the prediction results are compared with previously published models. This study is the first study of passenger posture to include a large cohort of older passengers and the first to report a significant effect of age for adults. The presented models can be used to position computational and physical human models for vehicle design and assessment. Practitioner Summary: The significant effects of age, body dimensions and seat configuration on rear seat passenger posture were identified. The models can be used to accurately position computational human models or crash test dummies for older passengers in known rear seat configurations. PMID:26328769

  18. Implementation of an active aging model in Mexico for prevention and control of chronic diseases in the elderly

    PubMed Central

    Mendoza-Núñez, Víctor Manuel; Martínez-Maldonado, María de la Luz; Correa-Muñoz, Elsa

    2009-01-01

    Background World Health Organization cites among the main challenges of populational aging the dual disease burden: the greater risk of disability, and the need for care. In this sense, the most frequent chronic diseases during old age worldwide are high blood pressure, type 2 diabetes mellitus, cancer, arthritis, osteoporosis, depression, and dementia. Chronic disease-associated dependency represents an onerous sanitary and financial burden for the older adult, the family, and the health care system. Thus, it is necessary to propose community-level models for chronic disease prevention and control in old age. The aim of the present work is to show our experience in the development and implementation of a model for chronic disease prevention and control in old age at the community level under the active aging paradigm. Methods/Design A longitudinal study will be carried out in a sample of 400 elderly urban and rural-dwelling individuals residing in Hidalgo State, Mexico during five years. All participants will be enrolled in the model active aging. This establishes the formation of 40 gerontological promoters (GPs) from among the older adults themselves. The GPs function as mutual-help group coordinators (gerontological nuclei) and establish self-care and self-promotion actions for elderly well-being and social development. It will be conformed a big-net of social network of 40 mutual-help groups of ten elderly adults each one, in which self-care is a daily practice for chronic disease prevention and control, as well as for achieving maximal well-being and life quality in old age. Indicators of the model's impact will be (i) therapeutic adherence; (ii) the incidence of the main chronic diseases in old age; (iii) life expectancy without chronic diseases at 60 years of age; (iv) disability adjusted life years lost; (v) years of life lost due to premature mortality, and (vi) years lived with disability. Discussion We propose that the implementation of the model active

  19. Aging and strain softening model for episodic faulting

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stuart, W.D.

    1979-01-01

    Episodic slip on shallow crustal faults can be qualitatively explained by postulating a fault constitutive law that is the superposition of two limiting material responses: (1) strain softening after peak stress during large strain rates, and (2) strength (peak stress) recovery during aging at small strain rates. A single law permits a variety of seismic and aseismic phenomena to occur over a range of space and time scales. Specific cases are determined by the spatial variation of material constants, recent deformation history, crustal rigidity, and remote forcing. ?? 1979.

  20. Mini-review: Retarding aging in murine genetic models of neurodegeneration.

    PubMed

    Albin, Roger L; Miller, Richard A

    2016-01-01

    Retardation of aging processes is a plausible approach to delaying the onset or slowing the progression of common neurodegenerative disorders. We review the results of experiments using murine genetic models of Alzheimer disease and Huntington disease to evaluate the effects of retarding aging. While positive results are reported in several of these experiments, there are several discrepancies in behavioral and pathologic outcomes both within and between different experiments. Similarly, different experiments yield varying assessments of potential proximate mechanisms of action of retarding aging. The anti-aging interventions used for some experiments include some that show only modest effects on lifespan, and others that have proven hard to reproduce. Several experiments used aggressive transgenic neurodegenerative disease models that may be less relevant in the context of age-related diseases. The experience with these models and interventions may be useful in designing future experiments assessing anti-aging interventions for disease-modifying treatment of neurodegenerative diseases.

  1. The African Turquoise Killifish: A Model for Exploring Vertebrate Aging and Diseases in the Fast Lane.

    PubMed

    Harel, Itamar; Brunet, Anne

    2015-01-01

    Why and how organisms age remains a mystery, and it defines one of the biggest challenges in biology. Aging is also the primary risk factor for many human pathologies, such as cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and neurodegenerative diseases. Thus, manipulating the aging rate and potentially postponing the onset of these devastating diseases could have a tremendous impact on human health. Recent studies, relying primarily on nonvertebrate short-lived model systems, have shown the importance of both genetic and environmental factors in modulating the aging rate. However, relatively little is known about aging in vertebrates or what processes may be unique and specific to these complex organisms. Here we discuss how advances in genomics and genome editing have significantly expanded our ability to probe the aging process in a vertebrate system. We highlight recent findings from a naturally short-lived vertebrate, the African turquoise killifish, which provides an attractive platform for exploring mechanisms underlying vertebrate aging and age-related diseases.

  2. Assessment of selenium and mercury in biological samples of normal and night blindness children of age groups (3-7) and (8-12) years.

    PubMed

    Afridi, Hassan Imran; Kazi, Tasneem Gul; Talpur, Farah Naz; Kazi, Atif; Arain, Sadaf Sadia; Arain, Salma Aslam; Brahman, Kapil Dev; Panhwar, Abdul Haleem; Khan, Naeemullah; Arain, Mariam Shazadi; Ali, Jamshed

    2015-03-01

    The causes of night blindness in children are multifactorial and particular consideration has been given to childhood nutritional deficiency, which is the most common problem found in underdeveloped countries. Such deficiency can result in physiological and pathological processes that in turn influence biological sample composition. This study was designed to compare the levels of selenium (Se) and mercury (Hg) in scalp hair, blood, and urine of night blindness children age ranged (3-7) and (8-12) years of both genders, comparing them to sex- and age-matched controls. A microwave-assisted wet acid digestion procedure was developed as a sample pretreatment for the determination of Se and Hg in biological samples of night blindness children. The proposed method was validated by using conventional wet digestion and certified reference samples of hair, blood, and urine. The Se and Hg in biological samples were measured by electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry and cold vapor atomic absorption spectrometry, prior to microwave acid digestion, respectively. The concentration of Se was decreased in scalp hair and blood samples of male and female night blindness children while Hg was higher in all biological samples as compared to referent subjects. The Se concentration was inversely associated with the risk of night blindness in both genders. These results add to an increasing body of evidence that Se is a protecting element for night blindness. These data present guidance to clinicians and other professional investigating deficiency of essential micronutrients in biological samples (scalp hair and blood) of night blindness children. PMID:25655123

  3. Age-distribution estimation for karst groundwater: Issues of parameterization and complexity in inverse modeling by convolution

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Long, A.J.; Putnam, L.D.

    2009-01-01

    Convolution modeling is useful for investigating the temporal distribution of groundwater age based on environmental tracers. The framework of a quasi-transient convolution model that is applicable to two-domain flow in karst aquifers is presented. The model was designed to provide an acceptable level of statistical confidence in parameter estimates when only chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and tritium (3H) data are available. We show how inverse modeling and uncertainty assessment can be used to constrain model parameterization to a level warranted by available data while allowing major aspects of the flow system to be examined. As an example, the model was applied to water from a pumped well open to the Madison aquifer in central USA with input functions of CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, and 3H, and was calibrated to several samples collected during a 16-year period. A bimodal age distribution was modeled to represent quick and slow flow less than 50 years old. The effects of pumping and hydraulic head on the relative volumetric fractions of these domains were found to be influential factors for transient flow. Quick flow and slow flow were estimated to be distributed mainly within the age ranges of 0-2 and 26-41 years, respectively. The fraction of long-term flow (>50 years) was estimated but was not dateable. The different tracers had different degrees of influence on parameter estimation and uncertainty assessments, where 3H was the most critical, and CFC-113 was least influential.

  4. Age-distribution estimation for karst groundwater: Issues of parameterization and complexity in inverse modeling by convolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Long, Andrew J.; Putnam, Larry D.

    2009-10-01

    SummaryConvolution modeling is useful for investigating the temporal distribution of groundwater age based on environmental tracers. The framework of a quasi-transient convolution model that is applicable to two-domain flow in karst aquifers is presented. The model was designed to provide an acceptable level of statistical confidence in parameter estimates when only chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and tritium ( 3H) data are available. We show how inverse modeling and uncertainty assessment can be used to constrain model parameterization to a level warranted by available data while allowing major aspects of the flow system to be examined. As an example, the model was applied to water from a pumped well open to the Madison aquifer in central USA with input functions of CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, and 3H, and was calibrated to several samples collected during a 16-year period. A bimodal age distribution was modeled to represent quick and slow flow less than 50 years old. The effects of pumping and hydraulic head on the relative volumetric fractions of these domains were found to be influential factors for transient flow. Quick flow and slow flow were estimated to be distributed mainly within the age ranges of 0-2 and 26-41 years, respectively. The fraction of long-term flow (>50 years) was estimated but was not dateable. The different tracers had different degrees of influence on parameter estimation and uncertainty assessments, where 3H was the most critical, and CFC-113 was least influential.

  5. Computational models in the age of large datasets.

    PubMed

    O'Leary, Timothy; Sutton, Alexander C; Marder, Eve

    2015-06-01

    Technological advances in experimental neuroscience are generating vast quantities of data, from the dynamics of single molecules to the structure and activity patterns of large networks of neurons. How do we make sense of these voluminous, complex, disparate and often incomplete data? How do we find general principles in the morass of detail? Computational models are invaluable and necessary in this task and yield insights that cannot otherwise be obtained. However, building and interpreting good computational models is a substantial challenge, especially so in the era of large datasets. Fitting detailed models to experimental data is difficult and often requires onerous assumptions, while more loosely constrained conceptual models that explore broad hypotheses and principles can yield more useful insights.

  6. The Naive Intuitive Statistician: A Naive Sampling Model of Intuitive Confidence Intervals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Juslin, Peter; Winman, Anders; Hansson, Patrik

    2007-01-01

    The perspective of the naive intuitive statistician is outlined and applied to explain overconfidence when people produce intuitive confidence intervals and why this format leads to more overconfidence than other formally equivalent formats. The naive sampling model implies that people accurately describe the sample information they have but are…

  7. Regularization Methods for Fitting Linear Models with Small Sample Sizes: Fitting the Lasso Estimator Using R

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Finch, W. Holmes; Finch, Maria E. Hernandez

    2016-01-01

    Researchers and data analysts are sometimes faced with the problem of very small samples, where the number of variables approaches or exceeds the overall sample size; i.e. high dimensional data. In such cases, standard statistical models such as regression or analysis of variance cannot be used, either because the resulting parameter estimates…

  8. Sample Size Requirements for Structural Equation Models: An Evaluation of Power, Bias, and Solution Propriety

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wolf, Erika J.; Harrington, Kelly M.; Clark, Shaunna L.; Miller, Mark W.

    2013-01-01

    Determining sample size requirements for structural equation modeling (SEM) is a challenge often faced by investigators, peer reviewers, and grant writers. Recent years have seen a large increase in SEMs in the behavioral science literature, but consideration of sample size requirements for applied SEMs often relies on outdated rules-of-thumb.…

  9. Integrating hydrograph modeling with real-time flow monitoring to generate hydrograph-specific sampling schemes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gall, Heather E.; Jafvert, Chad T.; Jenkinson, Byron

    2010-11-01

    Automated sample collection for water quality research and evaluation generally is performed by simple time-paced or flow-weighted sampling protocols. However, samples collected on strict time-paced or flow-weighted schemes may not adequately capture all elements of storm event hydrographs (i.e., rise, peak, and recession). This can result in inadequate information for calculating chemical mass flux over storm events. In this research, an algorithm was developed to guide automated sampling of hydrographs based on storm-specific information. A key element of the new "hydrograph-specific sampling scheme" is the use of a hydrograph recession model for predicting the hydrograph recession curve, during which flow-paced intervals are calculated for scheduling the remaining samples. The algorithm was tested at a tile drained Midwest agricultural site where real-time flow data were processed by a programmable datalogger that in turn activated an automated sampler at the appropriate sampling times to collect a total of twenty samples during each storm event independent of the number of sequential hydrographs generated. The utility of the algorithm was successfully tested with hydrograph data collected at both a tile drain and agricultural ditch, suggesting the potential for general applicability of the method. This sampling methodology is flexible in that the logic can be adapted for use with any hydrograph recession model; however, in this case a power law equation proved to be the most practical model.

  10. Age at Onset of DSM-IV Pathological Gambling in a Non-Treatment Sample: Early- versus Later-Onset

    PubMed Central

    Black, Donald W.; Shaw, Martha; Coryell, William; Crowe, Raymond; McCormick, Brett; Allen, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Background Pathological gambling (PG) is a prevalent and impairing public health problem. In this study we assessed age at onset in men and women with PG and compared the demographic and clinical picture of early- vs. later-onset individuals. We also compared age at onset in PG subjects and their first-degree relatives with PG. Method Subjects with DSM-IV PG were recruited during the conduct of two non-treatment clinical studies. Subjects were evaluated with structured interviews and validated questionnaires. Early-onset was defined as PG starting prior to age 33 years. Results Age at onset of PG in the 255 subjects ranged from 8 to 80 years with a mean (SD) of 34.0 (15.3) years. Men had an earlier onset than women. 84% of all subjects with PG had developed the disorder by age 50 years. Early-onset subjects were more likely to be male, to prefer action games, and to have substance use disorders, antisocial personality disorder, attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder, trait impulsiveness, and social anxiety disorder. Later-onset was more common in women and was associated with a preference for slots and a history of sexual abuse. Conclusions Age at onset of PG is bimodal and differs for men and women. Early- and later-onset PG have important demographic and clinical differences. The implications of the findings are discussed. PMID:25956751

  11. The glycation of fibronectin by glycolaldehyde and methylglyoxal as a model for aging in Bruch's membrane.

    PubMed

    Thao, Mai T; Gaillard, Elizabeth R

    2016-07-01

    The purpose of the study is to identify the sites of modification when fibronectin reacts with glycolaldehyde or methylglyoxal as a model system for aging of Bruch's membrane. A synthetic peptide consisting of the α5β1 integrin binding region of fibronectin was incubated with glycolaldehyde for 12 h or with methylglyoxal for 1 h at 37 °C. After tryptic digestion, the samples were analyzed with liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC/MS). Tandem MS was used to determine the sites of modification. The adducts, aldoamine and N (ε)-carboxymethyl-lysine, attached preferably at lysine residues when the fibronectin peptide reacted with glycolaldehyde. When the fibronectin peptide reacted with methylglyoxal, modifications occurred at lysine and arginine residues. At lysine residues, N (ε)-carboxyethyl-lysine adducts were present. At arginine residues, hydroimidazolone and tetrapyrimidine adducts were present. Several advanced glycation endproducts were generated when fibronectin was glycated via glycolaldehyde and methylglyoxal. These results can help explain the structural changes Bruch's membrane undergoes during aging. PMID:27084712

  12. Parameter Estimation in Stratified Cluster Sampling under Randomized Response Models for Sensitive Question Survey.

    PubMed

    Pu, Xiangke; Gao, Ge; Fan, Yubo; Wang, Mian

    2016-01-01

    Randomized response is a research method to get accurate answers to sensitive questions in structured sample survey. Simple random sampling is widely used in surveys of sensitive questions but hard to apply on large targeted populations. On the other side, more sophisticated sampling regimes and corresponding formulas are seldom employed to sensitive question surveys. In this work, we developed a series of formulas for parameter estimation in cluster sampling and stratified cluster sampling under two kinds of randomized response models by using classic sampling theories and total probability formulas. The performances of the sampling methods and formulas in the survey of premarital sex and cheating on exams at Soochow University were also provided. The reliability of the survey methods and formulas for sensitive question survey was found to be high.

  13. Covariate analysis of survival data: a small-sample study of Cox's model

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, M.E.; Tolley, H.D.; Bryson, M.C.; Goldman, A.S.

    1982-09-01

    Cox's proportional-hazards model is frequently used to adjust for covariate effects in survival-data analysis. The small-sample performances of the maximum partial likelihood estimators of the regression parameters in a two-covariate hazard function model are evaluated with respect to bias, variance, and power in hypothesis tests. Previous Monte Carlo work on the two-sample problem is reviewed.

  14. Gender Ratio in a Clinical Population Sample, Age of Diagnosis and Duration of Assessment in Children and Adults with Autism Spectrum Disorder

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rutherford, Marion; McKenzie, Karen; Johnson, Tess; Catchpole, Ciara; O'Hare, Anne; McClure, Iain; Forsyth, Kirsty; McCartney, Deborah; Murray, Aja

    2016-01-01

    This article reports on gender ratio, age of diagnosis and the duration of assessment procedures in autism spectrum disorder diagnosis in a national study which included all types of clinical services for children and adults. Findings are reported from a retrospective case note analysis undertaken with a representative sample of 150 Scottish…

  15. The Association between Body Dissatisfaction and Depression: An Examination of the Moderating Effects of Gender, Age, and Weight Status in a Sample of Chinese Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Gui; Guo, Guiping; Gong, Jingbo; Xiao, Shuiyuan

    2015-01-01

    The current study investigated the moderating effects of gender, age, and weight status on the relationship between body dissatisfaction and depression among adolescents. Data were collected on body dissatisfaction, depression, and demographic characteristics from a convenience sample of 1,101 adolescents (505 girls, 596 boys). The relationship…

  16. Assessment of a ground water flow model of the Bangkok Basin, Thailand, using carbon-14-based ages and paleohydrology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sanford, W.E.; Buapeng, S.

    1996-01-01

    A study was undertaken to understand the groundwater flow conditions in the Bangkok Basin, Thailand, by comparing 14C-based and simulated groundwater ages. 14C measurements were made on about 50 water samples taken from wells throughout the basin. Simulated ages were obtained using 1) backward-pathline tracking based on the well locations, and 2) results from a three-dimensional groundwater flow model. Comparisons of ages at these locations reveal a large difference between 14C-based ages and ages predicted by the steady-state groundwater flow model. Mainly, 14C and 13C analyses indicate that groundwater in the Bangkok area is about 20,000 years old, whereas steady-state flow and transport simulations imply that groundwater in the Bangkok area is 50,000-100,000 years old. One potential reason for the discrepancy between simulated and 14C-based ages is the assumption in the model of steady-state flow. Groundwater velocities were probably greater in the region before about 10,000 years ago, during the last glacial maximum, because of the lower position of sea level and the absence of the surficial Bangkok Clay. Paleoflow conditions were estimated and then incorporated into a second set of simulations. The new assumption was that current steady-state flow conditions existed for the last 8,000 years but were preceded by steady-state conditions representative of flow during the last glacial maximum. This "transient" paleohydrologic simulation yielded a mean simulated age that more closely agrees with the mean 14C-based age, especially if the 14C-based age is corrected for diffusion into clay layers. Although the uncertainties in both the simulated and 14C-based ages are nontrivial, the magnitude of the improved match in the mean age using a paleohydrologic simulation instead of a steady-state simulation suggests that flow conditions in the basin have changed significantly over the last 10,000-20,000 years. Given that the valid age range of 14C-dating methods and the

  17. A Novel Physiology-Based Mathematical Model to Estimate Red Blood Cell Lifespan in Different Human Age Groups.

    PubMed

    An, Guohua; Widness, John A; Mock, Donald M; Veng-Pedersen, Peter

    20