Age of first use and ongoing patterns of legal and illegal drug use in a sample of young Londoners.

PubMed

McCambridge, Jim; Strang, John

2005-01-01

The significance of ages of first use of cigarettes, alcohol, cannabis, and stimulant drugs were investigated in a sample of young drug users entering an intervention study in London. Age of first cigarette smoking emerges as a robust predictor of age of first cannabis use, and age of first cannabis use in turn is predictive of age of first stimulant use, among those using both drugs. In this sample, ages of first use of cigarettes, alcohol, and cannabis are not predictive of whether stimulant drugs are used. In a series of regression models that take account of the influence of other factors, age of first use is found to have no relationship to levels of ongoing consumption of cigarettes, alcohol, and cannabis.

Site index model for naturally regenerated even-aged longleaf pine

Treesearch

Dwight K. Lauer; John S. Kush

2013-01-01

Data from the Regional Longleaf Growth Study (339 permanent sample plots) were used to develop a site index model for naturally regenerated, even-aged longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.). The site index equation was derived using the generalized algebraic difference approach and is base-age invariant. Using height as a measure of site productivity...

High-Precision Plutonium Isotopic Compositions Measured on Los Alamos National Laboratory’s General’s Tanks Samples: Bearing on Model Ages, Reactor Modelling, and Sources of Material. Further Discussion of Chronometry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spencer, Khalil J.; Rim, Jung Ho; Porterfield, Donivan R.

2015-06-29

In this study, we re-analyzed late-1940’s, Manhattan Project era Plutonium-rich sludge samples recovered from the ''General’s Tanks'' located within the nation’s oldest Plutonium processing facility, Technical Area 21. These samples were initially characterized by lower accuracy, and lower precision mass spectrometric techniques. We report here information that was previously not discernable: the two tanks contain isotopically distinct Pu not only for the major (i.e., 240Pu, 239Pu) but trace ( 238Pu , 241Pu, 242Pu) isotopes. Revised isotopics slightly changed the calculated 241Am- 241Pu model ages and interpretations.

Using remotely-sensed multispectral imagery to build age models for alluvial fan surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Arcy, Mitch; Mason, Philippa J.; Roda Boluda, Duna C.; Whittaker, Alexander C.; Lewis, James

2016-04-01

Accurate exposure age models are essential for much geomorphological field research, and generally depend on laboratory analyses such as radiocarbon, cosmogenic nuclide, or luminescence techniques. These approaches continue to revolutionise geomorphology, however they cannot be deployed remotely or in situ in the field. Therefore other methods are still needed for producing preliminary age models, performing relative dating of surfaces, or selecting sampling sites for the laboratory analyses above. With the widespread availability of detailed multispectral imagery, a promising approach is to use remotely-sensed data to discriminate surfaces with different ages. Here, we use new Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) multispectral imagery to characterise the reflectance of 35 alluvial fan surfaces in the semi-arid Owens Valley, California. Alluvial fans are useful landforms to date, as they are widely used to study the effects of tectonics, climate and sediment transport processes on source-to-sink sedimentation. Our target fan surfaces have all been mapped in detail in the field, and have well-constrained exposure ages ranging from modern to ~ 125 ka measured using a high density of 10Be cosmogenic nuclide samples. Despite all having similar granitic compositions, the spectral properties of these surfaces vary systematically with their exposure ages. Older surfaces demonstrate a predictable shift in reflectance across the visible and short-wave infrared spectrum. Simple calculations, such as the brightness ratios of different wavelengths, generate sensitive power law relationships with exposure age that depend on post-depositional alteration processes affecting these surfaces. We investigate what these processes might be in this dryland location, and evaluate the potential for using remotely-sensed multispectral imagery for developing surface age models. The ability to remotely sense relative exposure ages has useful implications for preliminary mapping, selecting

Does active ageing contribute to life satisfaction for older people? Testing a new model of active ageing.

PubMed

Marsillas, Sara; De Donder, Liesbeth; Kardol, Tinie; van Regenmortel, Sofie; Dury, Sarah; Brosens, Dorien; Smetcoren, An-Sofie; Braña, Teresa; Varela, Jesús

2017-09-01

Several debates have emerged across the literature about the conceptualisation of active ageing. The aim of this study is to develop a model of the construct that is focused on the individual, including different elements of people's lives that have the potential to be modified by intervention programs. Moreover, the paper examines the contributions of active ageing to life satisfaction, as well as the possible predictive role of coping styles on active ageing. For this purpose, a representative sample of 404 Galician (Spain) community-dwelling older adults (aged ≥60 years) were interviewed using a structured survey. The results demonstrate that the proposed model composed of two broad categories is valid. The model comprises status variables (related to physical, psychological, and social health) as well as different types of activities, called processual variables. This model is tested using partial least squares (PLS) regression. The findings show that active ageing is a fourth-order, formative construct. In addition, PLS analyses indicate that active ageing has a moderate and positive path on life satisfaction and that coping styles may predict active ageing. The discussion highlights the potential of active ageing as a relevant concept for people's lives, drawing out policy implications and suggestions for further research.

A binary logistic regression model with complex sampling design of unmet need for family planning among all women aged (15-49) in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Workie, Demeke Lakew; Zike, Dereje Tesfaye; Fenta, Haile Mekonnen; Mekonnen, Mulusew Admasu

2017-09-01

Unintended pregnancy related to unmet need is a worldwide problem that affects societies. The main objective of this study was to identify the prevalence and determinants of unmet need for family planning among women aged (15-49) in Ethiopia. The Performance Monitoring and Accountability2020/Ethiopia was conducted in April 2016 at round-4 from 7494 women with two-stage-stratified sampling. Bi-variable and multi-variable binary logistic regression model with complex sampling design was fitted. The prevalence of unmet-need for family planning was 16.2% in Ethiopia. Women between the age range of 15-24 years were 2.266 times more likely to have unmet need family planning compared to above 35 years. Women who were currently married were about 8 times more likely to have unmet need family planning compared to never married women. Women who had no under-five child were 0.125 times less likely to have unmet need family planning compared to those who had more than two-under-5. The key determinants of unmet need family planning in Ethiopia were residence, age, marital-status, education, household members, birth-events and number of under-5 children. Thus the Government of Ethiopia would take immediate steps to address the causes of high unmet need for family planning among women.

Basic tree-ring sample preparation techniques for aging aspen

Treesearch

Lance A. Asherin; Stephen A. Mata

2001-01-01

Aspen is notoriously difficult to age because of its light-colored wood and faint annual growth rings. Careful preparation and processing of aspen ring samples can overcome these problems, yield accurate age and growth estimates, and concisely date disturbance events present in the tree-ring record. Proper collection of aspen wood is essential in obtaining usable ring...

Age Differences in Personality: Evidence from a Nationally Representative Australian Sample

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lucas, Richard E.; Donnellan, M. Brent

2009-01-01

Cross-sectional age differences in the Big Five personality traits were examined in a nationally representative sample of Australians (N = 12,618; age range = 15-84). Extraversion, Neuroticism, and Openness were negatively associated with age, whereas Agreeableness and Conscientiousness were positively associated with age. Effect sizes comparing…

Relative age effects in fitness testing in a general school sample: how relative are they?

PubMed

Veldhuizen, Scott; Cairney, John; Hay, John; Faught, Brent

2015-01-01

When children or adolescents are grouped by age or year of birth, older individuals tend to outperform younger ones. These phenomena are known as relative age effects (RAEs). RAEs may result directly from differences in maturation, but may also be associated with psychological, pedagogic or other factors. In this article, we attempt to quantify RAEs in a simple fitness task and to identify the mechanisms operating. Data come from a 5-year study of 2278 individuals that included repeated administrations of the 20 m shuttle run. We use mixed-effect modelling to characterise change over time and then examine residuals from these models for evidence of an effect for age relative to peers or for season of birth. Age alone appears to account for RAEs in our sample, with no effects for age relative to peers or month of birth. Age grouping produces large disparities for girls under 12, moderate ones for boys of all ages and negligible ones for girls between 12 and 15. RAEs for this task and population appear to arise from simple age differences. Similar methods may be useful in determining whether other explanations of RAEs are necessary in other contexts. Evaluation processes that take age into account have the potential to mitigate RAEs in general settings.

Application of Lamendin's adult dental aging technique to a diverse skeletal sample.

PubMed

Prince, Debra A; Ubelaker, Douglas H

2002-01-01

Lamendin et al. (1) proposed a technique to estimate age at death for adults by analyzing single-rooted teeth. They expressed age as a function of two factors: translucency of the tooth root and periodontosis (gingival regression). In their study, they analyzed 306 singled rooted teeth that were extracted at autopsy from 208 individuals of known age at death, all of whom were considered as having a French ancestry. Their sample consisted of 135 males, 73 females, 198 whites, and 10 blacks. The sample ranged in age from 22 to 90 years of age. By using a simple formulae (A = 0.18 x P + 0.42 x T + 25.53, where A = Age in years, P = Periodontosis height x 100/root height, and T = Transparency height x 100/root height), Lamendin et al. were able to estimate age at death with a mean error of +/- 10 years on their working sample and +/- 8.4 years on a forensic control sample. Lamendin found this technique to work well with a French population, but did not test it outside of that sample area. This study tests the accuracy of this adult aging technique on a more diverse skeletal population, the Terry Collection housed at the Smithsonian's National Museum of Natural History. Our sample consists of 400 teeth from 94 black females, 72 white females, 98 black males, and 95 white males, ranging from 25 to 99 years. Lamendin's technique was applied to this sample to test its applicability to a population not of French origin. Providing results from a diverse skeletal population will aid in establishing the validity of this method to be used in forensic cases, its ideal purpose. Our results suggest that Lamendin's method estimates age fairly accurately outside of the French sample yielding a mean error of 8.2 years, standard deviation 6.9 years, and standard error of the mean 0.34 years. In addition, when ancestry and sex are accounted for, the mean errors are reduced for each group (black females, white females, black males, and white males). Lamendin et al. reported an inter

Animal models of aging research: implications for human aging and age-related diseases.

PubMed

Mitchell, Sarah J; Scheibye-Knudsen, Morten; Longo, Dan L; de Cabo, Rafael

2015-01-01

Aging is characterized by an increasing morbidity and functional decline that eventually results in the death of an organism. Aging is the largest risk factor for numerous human diseases, and understanding the aging process may thereby facilitate the development of new treatments for age-associated diseases. The use of humans in aging research is complicated by many factors, including ethical issues; environmental and social factors; and perhaps most importantly, their long natural life span. Although cellular models of human disease provide valuable mechanistic information, they are limited in that they may not replicate the in vivo biology. Almost all organisms age, and thus animal models can be useful for studying aging. Herein, we review some of the major models currently used in aging research and discuss their benefits and pitfalls, including interventions known to extend life span and health span. Finally, we conclude by discussing the future of animal models in aging research.

The Use of Informative Priors in Bayesian Modeling Age-at-death; a Quick Look at Chronological and Biological Age Changes in the Sacroiliac Joint in American Males.

PubMed

Godde, Kanya

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to examine how well different informative priors model age-at-death in Bayesian statistics, which will shed light on how the skeleton ages, particularly at the sacroiliac joint. Data from four samples were compared for their performance as informative priors for auricular surface age-at-death estimation: (1) American population from US Census data; (2) county data from the US Census data; (3) a local cemetery; and (4) a skeletal collection. The skeletal collection and cemetery are located within the county that was sampled. A Gompertz model was applied to compare survivorship across the four samples. Transition analysis parameters, coupled with the generated Gompertz parameters, were input into Bayes' theorem to generate highest posterior density ranges from posterior density functions. Transition analysis describes the age at which an individual transitions from one age phase to another. The result is age ranges that should describe the chronological age of 90% of the individuals who fall in a particular phase. Cumulative binomial tests indicate the method performed lower than 90% at capturing chronological age as assigned to a biological phase, despite wide age ranges at older ages. The samples performed similarly overall, despite small differences in survivorship. Collectively, these results show that as we age, the senescence pattern becomes more variable. More local samples performed better at describing the aging process than more general samples, which implies practitioners need to consider sample selection when using the literature to diagnose and work with patients with sacroiliac joint pain.

The Use of Informative Priors in Bayesian Modeling Age-at-death; a Quick Look at Chronological and Biological Age Changes in the Sacroiliac Joint in American Males

PubMed Central

Godde, Kanya

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to examine how well different informative priors model age-at-death in Bayesian statistics, which will shed light on how the skeleton ages, particularly at the sacroiliac joint. Data from four samples were compared for their performance as informative priors for auricular surface age-at-death estimation: (1) American population from US Census data; (2) county data from the US Census data; (3) a local cemetery; and (4) a skeletal collection. The skeletal collection and cemetery are located within the county that was sampled. A Gompertz model was applied to compare survivorship across the four samples. Transition analysis parameters, coupled with the generated Gompertz parameters, were input into Bayes' theorem to generate highest posterior density ranges from posterior density functions. Transition analysis describes the age at which an individual transitions from one age phase to another. The result is age ranges that should describe the chronological age of 90% of the individuals who fall in a particular phase. Cumulative binomial tests indicate the method performed lower than 90% at capturing chronological age as assigned to a biological phase, despite wide age ranges at older ages. The samples performed similarly overall, despite small differences in survivorship. Collectively, these results show that as we age, the senescence pattern becomes more variable. More local samples performed better at describing the aging process than more general samples, which implies practitioners need to consider sample selection when using the literature to diagnose and work with patients with sacroiliac joint pain. PMID:29546217

Synthesizing Information From Language Samples and Standardized Tests in School-Age Bilingual Assessment

PubMed Central

Pham, Giang

2017-01-01

Purpose Although language samples and standardized tests are regularly used in assessment, few studies provide clinical guidance on how to synthesize information from these testing tools. This study extends previous work on the relations between tests and language samples to a new population—school-age bilingual speakers with primary language impairment—and considers the clinical implications for bilingual assessment. Method Fifty-one bilingual children with primary language impairment completed narrative language samples and standardized language tests in English and Spanish. Children were separated into younger (ages 5;6 [years;months]–8;11) and older (ages 9;0–11;2) groups. Analysis included correlations with age and partial correlations between language sample measures and test scores in each language. Results Within the younger group, positive correlations with large effect sizes indicated convergence between test scores and microstructural language sample measures in both Spanish and English. There were minimal correlations in the older group for either language. Age related to English but not Spanish measures. Conclusions Tests and language samples complement each other in assessment. Wordless picture-book narratives may be more appropriate for ages 5–8 than for older children. We discuss clinical implications, including a case example of a bilingual child with primary language impairment, to illustrate how to synthesize information from these tools in assessment. PMID:28055056

Testing Multidimensional Models of Youth Civic Engagement: Model Comparisons, Measurement Invariance, and Age Differences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wray-Lake, Laura; Metzger, Aaron; Syvertsen, Amy K.

2017-01-01

Despite recognition that youth civic engagement is multidimensional, different modeling approaches are rarely compared or tested for measurement invariance. Using a diverse sample of 2,467 elementary, middle, and high school-aged youth, we measured eight dimensions of civic engagement: social responsibility values, informal helping, political…

Effects of sampling design on age ratios of migrants captured at stopover sites

Treesearch

Jeffrey F. Kelly; Deborah M. Finch

2000-01-01

Age classes of migrant songbirds often differ in migration timing. This difference creates the potential for age-ratios recorded at stopover sites to vary with the amount and distribution of sampling effort used. To test for these biases, we sub-sampled migrant capture data from the Middle Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico. We created data sets that reflected the age...

Age-structured mark-recapture analysis: A virtual-population-analysis-based model for analyzing age-structured capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Martell, S.J.D.

2006-01-01

We present a new model to estimate capture probabilities, survival, abundance, and recruitment using traditional Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methods within a standard fisheries virtual population analysis framework. This approach compares the numbers of marked and unmarked fish at age captured in each year of sampling with predictions based on estimated vulnerabilities and abundance in a likelihood function. Recruitment to the earliest age at which fish can be tagged is estimated by using a virtual population analysis method to back-calculate the expected numbers of unmarked fish at risk of capture. By using information from both marked and unmarked animals in a standard fisheries age structure framework, this approach is well suited to the sparse data situations common in long-term capture-recapture programs with variable sampling effort. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

Gear comparison for sampling age-0 Mountain Whitefish in the Madison River, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyer, Jan K.; Guy, Christopher S.; Webb, Molly A.H.; Horton, Travis B.; McMahon, Thomas E.

2017-01-01

The efficacy of various sampling gears for age-0 Mountain Whitefish Prosopium williamsoni is largely unknown, which makes it difficult to investigate recruitment and early life history dynamics for the species. We compared four gears: seine, backpack electrofisher, minnow trap, and lighted minnow trap. Gears were tested in backwaters, large channels, and small channels in the Madison River, Montana. No age-0 Mountain Whitefish were captured in minnow traps or lighted minnow traps. Mean CPUE of age-0 Mountain Whitefish was higher for seining (0.18 fish/m2; SD, 0.39) than for electrofishing (0.01 fish/m2; SD, 0.03), and the CV was lower for seining. A broader length distribution was sampled by seining (17–41 mm) than with electrofishing (21–36 mm). Age-0 Mountain Whitefish CPUE in seines was highest in backwaters. In channel sites, Mountain Whitefish presence was associated with areas of still or slow water ≥2 m2. Relative to the other sampling gears we evaluated, seining was the most efficient gear for sampling age-0 Mountain Whitefish in a lotic ecosystem.

Exploring the Relationship between Family Functioning and Psycho-Pathology in a Sample in the Pediatric Age.

PubMed

Pepe, Silvia; Tortolani, Daniela; Gentile, Simonetta; Di Ciommo, Vincenzo M

2015-03-17

The purpose of this study was to investigate differences in family functioning between families with clinical subjects in paediatric age and families taken from the Italian population. To this aim we used the Family Adaptability and Cohesion Evaluation Scale (FACES). Participants were children diagnosed with a psychopathology, recruited into the psychiatry department in a Paediatric Hospital of Rome. A total of 106 families participated in the study. The non-pathological sample is composed by 2,543 parents in different age periods of the life-cycle. Results showed significant differences in family functioning between pathological and non-pathological samples. Specifically, families from the pathological sample (particularly the ones who experienced eating disorders) were more frequently located in extreme or mid-range regions of Olson's circumplex model (p < .001). These findings suggest some considerations that can be useful in therapeutic works with families in a clinical setting. Critical aspects and clinical applications are discussed.

Image analysis of pubic bone for age estimation in a computed tomography sample.

PubMed

López-Alcaraz, Manuel; González, Pedro Manuel Garamendi; Aguilera, Inmaculada Alemán; López, Miguel Botella

2015-03-01

Radiology has demonstrated great utility for age estimation, but most of the studies are based on metrical and morphological methods in order to perform an identification profile. A simple image analysis-based method is presented, aimed to correlate the bony tissue ultrastructure with several variables obtained from the grey-level histogram (GLH) of computed tomography (CT) sagittal sections of the pubic symphysis surface and the pubic body, and relating them with age. The CT sample consisted of 169 hospital Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) archives of known sex and age. The calculated multiple regression models showed a maximum R (2) of 0.533 for females and 0.726 for males, with a high intra- and inter-observer agreement. The method suggested is considered not only useful for performing an identification profile during virtopsy, but also for application in further studies in order to attach a quantitative correlation for tissue ultrastructure characteristics, without complex and expensive methods beyond image analysis.

Personality, self-rated health, and subjective age in a life-span sample: the moderating role of chronological age.

PubMed

Stephan, Yannick; Demulier, Virginie; Terracciano, Antonio

2012-12-01

The present study tested whether chronological age moderates the association between subjective age and self-rated health and personality in a community-dwelling life-span sample (N = 1,016; age range: 18-91 years). Self-rated health, extraversion, and openness to experience were associated with a younger subjective age at older ages. Conscientious individuals felt more mature early in life. Conscientiousness, neuroticism, and agreeableness were not related to subjective age at older ages. These findings suggest that with aging self-rated health and personality traits are increasingly important for subjective age. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

Improving age-depth models using sedimentary proxies for accumulation rates in fluvio-lacustrine deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minderhoud, Philip S. J.; Cohen, Kim M.; Toonen, Willem. H. J.; Erkens, Gilles; Hoek, Wim Z.

2017-04-01

Lacustrine fills, including those of oxbow lakes in river floodplains, often hold valuable sedimentary and biological proxy records of palaeo-environmental change. Precise dating of accumulated sediments at levels throughout these records is crucial for interpretation and correlation of (proxy) data existing within the fills. Typically, dates are gathered from multiple sampled levels and their results are combined in age-depth models to estimate the ages of events identified between the datings. In this paper, a method of age-depth modelling is presented that varies the vertical accumulation rate of the lake fill based on continuous sedimentary data. In between Bayesian calibrated radiocarbon dates, this produces a modified non-linear age-depth relation based on sedimentology rather than linear or spline interpolation. The method is showcased on a core of an infilled palaeomeander at the floodplain edge of the river Rhine near Rheinberg (Germany). The sequence spans from 4.7 to 2.9 ka cal BP and consists of 5.5 meters of laminated lacustrine, organo-clastic mud, covered by 1 meter of peaty clay. Four radiocarbon dates provide direct dating control, mapping and dating in the wider surroundings provide additional control. The laminated, organo-clastic facies of the oxbow fill contains a record of nearby fluvial-geomorphological activity, including meander reconfiguration events and passage of rare large floods, recognized as fluctuations in coarseness and amount of allochthonous clastic sediment input. Continuous along-core sampling and measurement of loss-on-ignition (LOI) provided a fast way of expressing the variation in clastic sedimentation influx from the nearby river versus autochthonous organic deposition derived from biogenic production in the lake itself. This low-cost sedimentary proxy data feeds into the age-depth modelling. The sedimentology-modelled age-depth relation (re)produces the distinct lithological boundaries in the fill as marked changes in

Modeling abundance effects in distance sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Dawson, D.K.; Bates, S.

2004-01-01

Distance-sampling methods are commonly used in studies of animal populations to estimate population density. A common objective of such studies is to evaluate the relationship between abundance or density and covariates that describe animal habitat or other environmental influences. However, little attention has been focused on methods of modeling abundance covariate effects in conventional distance-sampling models. In this paper we propose a distance-sampling model that accommodates covariate effects on abundance. The model is based on specification of the distance-sampling likelihood at the level of the sample unit in terms of local abundance (for each sampling unit). This model is augmented with a Poisson regression model for local abundance that is parameterized in terms of available covariates. Maximum-likelihood estimation of detection and density parameters is based on the integrated likelihood, wherein local abundance is removed from the likelihood by integration. We provide an example using avian point-transect data of Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapillus) collected using a distance-sampling protocol and two measures of habitat structure (understory cover and basal area of overstory trees). The model yields a sensible description (positive effect of understory cover, negative effect on basal area) of the relationship between habitat and Ovenbird density that can be used to evaluate the effects of habitat management on Ovenbird populations.

Face aging effect simulation model based on multilayer representation and shearlet transform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yuancheng; Li, Yan

2017-09-01

In order to extract detailed facial features, we build a face aging effect simulation model based on multilayer representation and shearlet transform. The face is divided into three layers: the global layer of the face, the local features layer, and texture layer, which separately establishes the aging model. First, the training samples are classified according to different age groups, and we use active appearance model (AAM) at the global level to obtain facial features. The regression equations of shape and texture with age are obtained by fitting the support vector machine regression, which is based on the radial basis function. We use AAM to simulate the aging of facial organs. Then, for the texture detail layer, we acquire the significant high-frequency characteristic components of the face by using the multiscale shearlet transform. Finally, we get the last simulated aging images of the human face by the fusion algorithm. Experiments are carried out on the FG-NET dataset, and the experimental results show that the simulated face images have less differences from the original image and have a good face aging simulation effect.

A review of single-sample-based models and other approaches for radiocarbon dating of dissolved inorganic carbon in groundwater

USGS Publications Warehouse

Han, L. F; Plummer, Niel

2016-01-01

Numerous methods have been proposed to estimate the pre-nuclear-detonation 14C content of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) recharged to groundwater that has been corrected/adjusted for geochemical processes in the absence of radioactive decay (14C0) - a quantity that is essential for estimation of radiocarbon age of DIC in groundwater. The models/approaches most commonly used are grouped as follows: (1) single-sample-based models, (2) a statistical approach based on the observed (curved) relationship between 14C and δ13C data for the aquifer, and (3) the geochemical mass-balance approach that constructs adjustment models accounting for all the geochemical reactions known to occur along a groundwater flow path. This review discusses first the geochemical processes behind each of the single-sample-based models, followed by discussions of the statistical approach and the geochemical mass-balance approach. Finally, the applications, advantages and limitations of the three groups of models/approaches are discussed.The single-sample-based models constitute the prevailing use of 14C data in hydrogeology and hydrological studies. This is in part because the models are applied to an individual water sample to estimate the 14C age, therefore the measurement data are easily available. These models have been shown to provide realistic radiocarbon ages in many studies. However, they usually are limited to simple carbonate aquifers and selection of model may have significant effects on 14C0 often resulting in a wide range of estimates of 14C ages.Of the single-sample-based models, four are recommended for the estimation of 14C0 of DIC in groundwater: Pearson's model, (Ingerson and Pearson, 1964; Pearson and White, 1967), Han & Plummer's model (Han and Plummer, 2013), the IAEA model (Gonfiantini, 1972; Salem et al., 1980), and Oeschger's model (Geyh, 2000). These four models include all processes considered in single-sample-based models, and can be used in different ranges of

Developing a dimensional model for successful cognitive and emotional aging.

PubMed

Vahia, Ipsit V; Thompson, Wesley K; Depp, Colin A; Allison, Matthew; Jeste, Dilip V

2012-04-01

There is currently a lack of consensus on the definition of successful aging (SA) and existing implementations have omitted constructs associated with SA. We used empirical methods to develop a dimensional model of SA that incorporates a wider range of associated variables, and we examined the relationship among these components using factor analysis and Bayesian Belief Nets. We administered a successful aging questionnaire comprising several standardized measures related to SA to a sample of 1948 older women enrolled in the San Diego site of the Women's Health Initiative study. The SA-related variables we included in the model were self-rated successful aging, depression severity, physical and emotional functioning, optimism, resilience, attitude towards own aging, self-efficacy, and cognitive ability. After adjusting for age, education and income, we fitted an exploratory factor analysis model to the SA-related variables and then, in order to address relationships among these factors, we computed a Bayesian Belief Net (BBN) using rotated factor scores. The SA-related variables loaded onto five factors. Based on the loading, we labeled the factors as follows: self-rated successful aging, cognition, psychosocial protective factors, physical functioning, and emotional functioning. In the BBN, self-rated successful aging emerged as the primary downstream factor and exhibited significant partial correlations with psychosocial protective factors, physical/general status and mental/emotional status but not with cognitive ability. Our study represents a step forward in developing a dimensional model of SA. Our findings also point to a potential role for psychiatry in improving successful aging by managing depressive symptoms and developing psychosocial interventions to improve self-efficacy, resilience, and optimism.

Applicability of Cameriere's and Drusini's age estimation methods to a sample of Turkish adults.

PubMed

Hatice, Boyacioglu Dogru; Nihal, Avcu; Nursel, Akkaya; Humeyra Ozge, Yilanci; Goksuluk, Dincer

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the applicability of Drusini's and Cameriere's methods to a sample of Turkish people. Panoramic images of 200 individuals were allocated into two groups as study and test groups and examined by two observers. Tooth coronal indexes (TCI), which is the ratio between coronal pulp cavity height and crown height, were calculated in the mandibular first and second premolars and molars. Pulp/tooth area ratios (ARs) were calculated in the maxillary and mandibular canine teeth. Study group measurements were used to derive a regression model. Test group measurements were used to evaluate the accuracy of the regression model. Pearson's correlation coefficients and regression analysis were used. The correlations between TCIs and age were -0.230, -0.301, -0.344 and -0.257 for mandibular first premolar, second premolar, first molar and second molar, respectively. Those for the maxillary canine (MX) and mandibular canine (MN) ARs were -0.716 and -0.514, respectively. The MX ARs were used to build the linear regression model that explained 51.2% of the total variation, with a standard error of 9.23 years. The mean error of the estimates in test group was 8 years and age of 64% of the individuals were estimated with an error of <±10 years which is acceptable in forensic age prediction. The low correlation coefficients between age and TCI indicate that Drusini's method was not applicable to the estimation of age in a Turkish population. Using Cameriere's method, we derived a regression model.

Modelling the molecular mechanisms of aging

PubMed Central

Mc Auley, Mark T.; Guimera, Alvaro Martinez; Hodgson, David; Mcdonald, Neil; Mooney, Kathleen M.; Morgan, Amy E.

2017-01-01

The aging process is driven at the cellular level by random molecular damage that slowly accumulates with age. Although cells possess mechanisms to repair or remove damage, they are not 100% efficient and their efficiency declines with age. There are many molecular mechanisms involved and exogenous factors such as stress also contribute to the aging process. The complexity of the aging process has stimulated the use of computational modelling in order to increase our understanding of the system, test hypotheses and make testable predictions. As many different mechanisms are involved, a wide range of models have been developed. This paper gives an overview of the types of models that have been developed, the range of tools used, modelling standards and discusses many specific examples of models that have been grouped according to the main mechanisms that they address. We conclude by discussing the opportunities and challenges for future modelling in this field. PMID:28096317

Sample sizes and model comparison metrics for species distribution models

Treesearch

B.B. Hanberry; H.S. He; D.C. Dey

2012-01-01

Species distribution models use small samples to produce continuous distribution maps. The question of how small a sample can be to produce an accurate model generally has been answered based on comparisons to maximum sample sizes of 200 observations or fewer. In addition, model comparisons often are made with the kappa statistic, which has become controversial....

Sample size estimation for alternating logistic regressions analysis of multilevel randomized community trials of under-age drinking.

PubMed

Reboussin, Beth A; Preisser, John S; Song, Eun-Young; Wolfson, Mark

2012-07-01

Under-age drinking is an enormous public health issue in the USA. Evidence that community level structures may impact on under-age drinking has led to a proliferation of efforts to change the environment surrounding the use of alcohol. Although the focus of these efforts is to reduce drinking by individual youths, environmental interventions are typically implemented at the community level with entire communities randomized to the same intervention condition. A distinct feature of these trials is the tendency of the behaviours of individuals residing in the same community to be more alike than that of others residing in different communities, which is herein called 'clustering'. Statistical analyses and sample size calculations must account for this clustering to avoid type I errors and to ensure an appropriately powered trial. Clustering itself may also be of scientific interest. We consider the alternating logistic regressions procedure within the population-averaged modelling framework to estimate the effect of a law enforcement intervention on the prevalence of under-age drinking behaviours while modelling the clustering at multiple levels, e.g. within communities and within neighbourhoods nested within communities, by using pairwise odds ratios. We then derive sample size formulae for estimating intervention effects when planning a post-test-only or repeated cross-sectional community-randomized trial using the alternating logistic regressions procedure.

Verification of relationship model between Korean new elderly class's recovery resilience and productive aging.

PubMed

Cho, Gun-Sang; Kim, Dae-Sung; Yi, Eun-Surk

2015-12-01

The purpose of this study is to verification of relationship model between Korean new elderly class's recovery resilience and productive aging. As of 2013, this study sampled preliminary elderly people in Gyeonggi-do and other provinces nationwide. Data from a total of effective 484 subjects was analyzed. The collected data was processed using the IBM SPSS 20.0 and AMOS 20.0, and underwent descriptive statistical analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and structure model verification. The path coefficient associated with model fitness was examined. The standardization path coefficient between recovery resilience and productive aging is β=0.975 (t=14.790), revealing a statistically significant positive effect. Thus, it was found that the proposed basic model on the direct path of recovery resilience and productive aging was fit for the model.

Age of Lunar Meteorite LAP02205 and Implications for Impact-Sampling of Planetary Surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nyquist, L. E.; Shih, C.-Y.; Reese, Y.; Bogard, D. D.

2005-01-01

We have measured the age of lunar meteorite LAP02205 by the Rb-Sr and Ar-Ar methods. Sm-Nd analyses are in progress. The Rb-Sr and Ar-Ar ages indicate a crystallization age of approx. 3 Ga. Comparing the ages of LAP02205 and other lunar mare basaltic meteorites to mare surface ages based on the density of impact craters shows no significant bias in impact- sampling of lunar mare surfaces. Comparing the isotopic and geochemical data for LAP02205 to those for other lunar mare basalts suggests that it is a younger variant of the type of volcanism that produced the Apollo 12 basalts. Representative impact-sampling of the lunar surface

Phenomenological Modeling and Laboratory Simulation of Long-Term Aging of Asphalt Mixtures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elwardany, Michael Dawoud

The accurate characterization of asphalt mixture properties as a function of pavement service life is becoming more important as more powerful pavement design and performance prediction methods are implemented. Oxidative aging is a major distress mechanism of asphalt pavements. Aging increases the stiffness and brittleness of the material, which leads to a high cracking potential. Thus, an improved understanding of the aging phenomenon and its effect on asphalt binder chemical and rheological properties will allow for the prediction of mixture properties as a function of pavement service life. Many researchers have conducted laboratory binder thin-film aging studies; however, this approach does not allow for studying the physicochemical effects of mineral fillers on age hardening rates in asphalt mixtures. Moreover, aging phenomenon in the field is governed by kinetics of binder oxidation, oxygen diffusion through mastic phase, and oxygen percolation throughout the air voids structure. In this study, laboratory aging trials were conducted on mixtures prepared using component materials of several field projects throughout the USA and Canada. Laboratory aged materials were compared against field cores sampled at different ages. Results suggested that oven aging of loose mixture at 95°C is the most promising laboratory long-term aging method. Additionally, an empirical model was developed in order to account for the effect of mineral fillers on age hardening rates in asphalt mixtures. Kinetics modeling was used to predict field aging levels throughout pavement thickness and to determine the required laboratory aging duration to match field aging. Kinetics model outputs are calibrated using measured data from the field to account for the effects of oxygen diffusion and percolation. Finally, the calibrated model was validated using independent set of field sections. This work is expected to provide basis for improved asphalt mixture and pavement design procedures in

Use of 3H/3He Ages to evaluate and improve groundwater flow models in a complex buried-valley aquifer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sheets, Rodney A.; Bair, E. Scott; Rowe, Gary L.

1998-01-01

Combined use of the tritium/helium 3 (3H/3He) dating technique and particle-tracking analysis can improve flow-model calibration. As shown at two sites in the Great Miami buried-valley aquifer in southwestern Ohio, the combined use of 3H/3He age dating and particle tracking led to a lower mean absolute error between measured heads and simulated heads than in the original calibrated models and/or between simulated travel times and 3H/3He ages. Apparent groundwater ages were obtained for water samples collected from 44 wells at two locations where previously constructed finite difference models of groundwater flow were available (Mound Plant and Wright-Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB)). The two-layer Mound Plant model covers 11 km2 within the buried-valley aquifer. The WPAFB model has three layers and covers 262 km2 within the buried-valley aquifer and adjacent bedrock uplands. Sampled wells were chosen along flow paths determined from potentiometric maps or particle-tracking analyses. Water samples were collected at various depths within the aquifer. In the Mound Plant area, samples used for comparison of 3H/3He ages with simulated travel times were from wells completed in the uppermost model layer. Simulated travel times agreed well with 3H/3He ages. The mean absolute error (MAE) was 3.5 years. Agreement in ages at WPAFB decreased with increasing depth in the system. The MAEs were 1.63, 17.2, and 255 years for model layers 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Discrepancies between the simulated travel times and 3H/3He ages were assumed to be due to improper conceptualization or incorrect parameterization of the flow models. Selected conceptual and parameter modifications to the models resulted in improved agreement between 3H/3He ages and simulated travel times and between measured and simulated heads and flows.

Temperament factors and dimensional, latent bifactor models of child psychopathology: Transdiagnostic and specific associations in two youth samples.

PubMed

Hankin, Benjamin L; Davis, Elysia Poggi; Snyder, Hannah; Young, Jami F; Glynn, Laura M; Sandman, Curt A

2017-06-01

Common emotional and behavioral symptoms co-occur and are associated with core temperament factors. This study investigated links between temperament and dimensional, latent psychopathology factors, including a general common psychopathology factor (p factor) and specific latent internalizing and externalizing liabilities, as captured by a bifactor model, in two independent samples of youth. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that temperament factors of negative affectivity (NA), positive affectivity (PA), and effortful control (EC) could serve as both transdiagnostic and specific risks in relation to recent bifactor models of child psychopathology. Sample 1 included 571 youth (average age 13.6, SD =2.37, range 9.3-17.5) with both youth and parent report. Sample 2 included 554 preadolescent children (average age 7.7, SD =1.35, range =5-11 years) with parent report. Structural equation modeling showed that the latent bifactor models fit in both samples. Replicated in both samples, the p factor was associated with lower EC and higher NA (transdiagnostic risks). Several specific risks replicated in both samples after controlling for co-occurring symptoms via the p factor: internalizing was associated with higher NA and lower PA, lower EC related to externalizing problems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validating the Student-Teacher Relationship Scale: testing factor structure and measurement invariance across child gender and age in a Dutch sample.

PubMed

Koomen, Helma M Y; Verschueren, Karine; van Schooten, Erik; Jak, Suzanne; Pianta, Robert C

2012-04-01

The Student-Teacher Relationship Scale (STRS) is widely used to examine teachers' relationships with young students in terms of closeness, conflict, and dependency. This study aimed to verify the dimensional structure of the STRS with confirmatory factor analysis, test its measurement invariance across child gender and age, improve its measurement of the dependency construct, and extend its age range. Teachers completed a slightly adapted STRS for a Dutch sample of 2335 children aged 3 to 12. Overall, the 3-factor model showed an acceptable fit. Results indicated metric invariance across gender and age up to 8years. Scalar invariance generally did not hold. Lack of metric invariance at ages 8 to 12 primarily involved Conflict items, whereas scale differences across gender and age primarily involved Closeness items. The adapted Dependency scale showed strong invariance and higher internal consistencies than the original scale for this Dutch sample. Importantly, the revealed non-invariance for gender and age did not influence mean group comparisons. Copyright © 2011 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spectral ageing in the era of big data: integrated versus resolved models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harwood, Jeremy J.

2017-04-01

Continuous injection models of spectral ageing have long been used to determine the age of radio galaxies from their integrated spectrum; however, many questions about their reliability remain unanswered. With various large area surveys imminent (e.g. LOw Frequency ARray, MeerKAT, Murchison Widefield Array) and planning for the next generation of radio interferometers are well underway (e.g. next generation VLA, Square Kilometre Array), investigations of radio galaxy physics are set to shift away from studies of individual sources to the population as a whole. Determining if and how integrated models of spectral ageing can be applied in the era of big data is therefore crucial. In this paper, I compare classical integrated models of spectral ageing to recent well-resolved studies that use modern analysis techniques on small spatial scales to determine their robustness and validity as a source selection method. I find that integrated models are unable to recover key parameters and, even when known a priori, provide a poor, frequency-dependent description of a source's spectrum. I show a disparity of up to a factor of 6 in age between the integrated and resolved methods but suggest, even with these inconsistencies, such models still provide a potential method of candidate selection in the search for remnant radio galaxies and in providing a cleaner selection of high redshift radio galaxies in z - α selected samples.

Mixed models, linear dependency, and identification in age-period-cohort models.

PubMed

O'Brien, Robert M

2017-07-20

This paper examines the identification problem in age-period-cohort models that use either linear or categorically coded ages, periods, and cohorts or combinations of these parameterizations. These models are not identified using the traditional fixed effect regression model approach because of a linear dependency between the ages, periods, and cohorts. However, these models can be identified if the researcher introduces a single just identifying constraint on the model coefficients. The problem with such constraints is that the results can differ substantially depending on the constraint chosen. Somewhat surprisingly, age-period-cohort models that specify one or more of ages and/or periods and/or cohorts as random effects are identified. This is the case without introducing an additional constraint. I label this identification as statistical model identification and show how statistical model identification comes about in mixed models and why which effects are treated as fixed and which are treated as random can substantially change the estimates of the age, period, and cohort effects. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

C. elegans model of neuronal aging

PubMed Central

Peng, Chiu-Ying; Chen, Chun-Hao; Hsu, Jiun-Min

2011-01-01

Aging of the nervous system underlies the behavioral and cognitive decline associated with senescence. Understanding the molecular and cellular basis of neuronal aging will therefore contribute to the development of effective treatments for aging and age-associated neurodegenerative disorders. Despite this pressing need, there are surprisingly few animal models that aim at recapitulating neuronal aging in a physiological context. We recently developed a C. elegans model of neuronal aging, and showed that age-dependent neuronal defects are regulated by insulin signaling. We identified electrical activity and epithelial attachment as two critical factors in the maintenance of structural integrity of C. elegans touch receptor neurons. These findings open a new avenue for elucidating the molecular mechanisms that maintain neuronal structures during the course of aging. PMID:22446530

Application of third molar development and eruption models in estimating dental age in Malay sub-adults.

PubMed

Mohd Yusof, Mohd Yusmiaidil Putera; Cauwels, Rita; Deschepper, Ellen; Martens, Luc

2015-08-01

The third molar development (TMD) has been widely utilized as one of the radiographic method for dental age estimation. By using the same radiograph of the same individual, third molar eruption (TME) information can be incorporated to the TMD regression model. This study aims to evaluate the performance of dental age estimation in individual method models and the combined model (TMD and TME) based on the classic regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. A sample of 705 digital panoramic radiographs of Malay sub-adults aged between 14.1 and 23.8 years was collected. The techniques described by Gleiser and Hunt (modified by Kohler) and Olze were employed to stage the TMD and TME, respectively. The data was divided to develop three respective models based on the two regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. The trained models were then validated on the test sample and the accuracy of age prediction was compared between each model. The coefficient of determination (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE) were calculated. In both genders, adjusted R² yielded an increment in the linear regressions of combined model as compared to the individual models. The overall decrease in RMSE was detected in combined model as compared to TMD (0.03-0.06) and TME (0.2-0.8). In principal component regression, low value of adjusted R(2) and high RMSE except in male were exhibited in combined model. Dental age estimation is better predicted using combined model in multiple linear regression models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Eastern Baltic region vs. Western Europe: modelling age related changes in the pubic symphysis and the auricular surface.

PubMed

Jatautis, Šarūnas; Jankauskas, Rimantas

2018-02-01

Objectives. The present study addresses the following two main questions: a) Is the pattern of skeletal ageing observed in well-known western European reference collections applicable to modern eastern Baltic populations, or are population-specific standards needed? b) What are the consequences for estimating the age-at-death distribution in the target population when differences in the estimates from reference data are not taken into account? Materials and methods. The dataset consists of a modern Lithuanian osteological reference collection, which is the only collection of this type in the eastern Baltic countries (n = 381); and two major western European reference collections, Coimbra (n = 264) and Spitalfields (n = 239). The age-related changes were evaluated using the scoring systems of Suchey-Brooks (Brooks & Suchey 1990) and Lovejoy et al. (1985), and were modelled via regression models for multinomial responses. A controlled experiment based on simulations and the Rostock Manifesto estimation protocol (Wood et al. 2002) was then carried out to assess the effect of using estimates from different reference samples and different regression models on estimates of the age-at-death distribution in the hypothetical target population. Results. The following key results were obtained in this study. a) The morphological alterations in the pubic symphysis were much faster among women than among men at comparable ages in all three reference samples. In contrast, we found no strong evidence in any of the reference samples that sex is an important factor to explain rate of changes in the auricular surface. b) The rate of ageing in the pubic symphysis seems to be similar across the three reference samples, but there is little evidence of a similar pattern in the auricular surface. That is, the estimated rate of age-related changes in the auricular surface was much faster in the LORC and the Coimbra samples than in the Spitalfields sample. c) The results of simulations

Argon-40/Argon-39 Age Spectra of Apollo 17 Highlands Breccia Samples by Laser Step Heating and the Age of the Serenitatis Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dalrymple, G. Brent; Ryder, Graham

1996-01-01

We have obtained high-resolution (21-63 steps) Ar-40/Ar-39 age spectra using a continuous laser system on 19 submilligram samples of melt rocks and clasts from Apollo 17 samples collected from the pre-Imbrian highlands in the easternmost part of the Serenitatis basin. The samples include poikilitic melt rocks inferred to have been formed in the Serenitatis basin-forming impact, aphanitic melt rock whose compositions vary and whose provenance is uncertain, and granulite, gabbro, and melt clasts. Three of the poikilitic melts have similar age spectrum plateau ages (72395,96, 3893 +/- 16 Ma (2sigma); 72535,7, 3887 +/- 16 Ma; 76315,150, 3900 +/- 16 Ma) with a weighted mean age of 3893 +/- 9 Ma, which we interpret as the best age for the Serenitatis basin- forming impact. Published Ar-40/Ar-39 age spectrum ages of Apollo 17 poikilitic melts are consistent with our new age but are much less precise. Two poikilitic melts did not give plateaus and the maxima in their age spectra indicate ages of greater than or equal to 3869 Ma (72558,7) and greater than or equal to 3743 Ma (77135,178). Plateau ages of two poikilitic melts and two gabbro clasts from 73155 range from 3854 +/- 16 Ma to 3937 +/- 16 Ma and have probably been affected by the ubiquitous (older?) clasts and by post- formation heating (impact) events. Plateau ages from two of the aphanitic melt 'blobs' and two granulites in sample 72255 fall in the narrow range of 3850 q 16 Ma to 3869 q 16 Ma with a weighted mean of 3862 +/- 8 Ma. Two of the aphanitic melt blobs from 72255 have ages of 3883 +/- 16 Ma and greater than or equal to 3894 Ma, whereas a poikilitic melt clast (of different composition from the 'Serenitatis' melts) has an age of 3835 +/- 16 Ma, which is the upper limit for the accretion of 72255. These data suggest that either the aphanitic melts vary in age, as is also suggested by their varying chemical compositions, or they formed in the 72255 accretionary event about 3.84-3.85 Ga and older relict

Biological Aging - Criteria for Modeling and a New Mechanistic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pletcher, Scott D.; Neuhauser, Claudia

To stimulate interaction and collaboration across scientific fields, we introduce a minimum set of biological criteria that theoretical models of aging should satisfy. We review results of several recent experiments that examined changes in age-specific mortality rates caused by genetic and environmental manipulation. The empirical data from these experiments is then used to test mathematical models of aging from several different disciplines, including molecular biology, reliability theory, physics, and evolutionary biology/population genetics. We find that none of the current models are consistent with all of the published experimental findings. To provide an example of how our criteria might be applied in practice, we develop a new conceptual model of aging that is consistent with our observations.

Towards an Analytical Age-Dependent Model of Contrast Sensitivity Functions for an Ageing Society

PubMed Central

Joulan, Karine; Brémond, Roland

2015-01-01

The Contrast Sensitivity Function (CSF) describes how the visibility of a grating depends on the stimulus spatial frequency. Many published CSF data have demonstrated that contrast sensitivity declines with age. However, an age-dependent analytical model of the CSF is not available to date. In this paper, we propose such an analytical CSF model based on visual mechanisms, taking into account the age factor. To this end, we have extended an existing model from Barten (1999), taking into account the dependencies of this model's optical and physiological parameters on age. Age-dependent models of the cones and ganglion cells densities, the optical and neural MTF, and optical and neural noise are proposed, based on published data. The proposed age-dependent CSF is finally tested against available experimental data, with fair results. Such an age-dependent model may be beneficial when designing real-time age-dependent image coding and display applications. PMID:26078994

Prediction of BMI at age 11 in a longitudinal sample of the Ulm Birth Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Walter, Viola; Wabitsch, Martin; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Brenner, Hermann; Schimmelmann, Benno G.

2017-01-01

Obesity is one of the greatest public health challenges in the world with childhood prevalence rates between 20–26% and numerous associated health risks. The aim of the current study was to analyze the 11-year follow-up data of the Ulm Birth Cohort Study (UBCS), to identify whether abnormal eating behavior patterns, especially restrained eating, predict body mass index (BMI) at 11 years of age and to explore other factors known to be longitudinally associated with it. Of the original UBCS, n = 422 children (~ 40% of the original sample) and their parents participated in the 11-year follow-up. BMI at age 8 and 11 as well as information on restrained eating, psychological problems, depressive symptoms, lifestyle, and IQ at age 8 were assessed. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to predict children’s BMI scores at age 11. PLS-SEM explained 68% of the variance of BMI at age 11, with BMI at age 8 being the most important predictor. Restrained eating, via BMI at age 8 as well as parental BMI, had further weak associations with BMI at age 11; no other predictor was statistically significant. Since established overweight at age 8 already predicts BMI scores at age 11 longitudinally, obesity interventions should be implemented in early childhood. PMID:28832593

Verification of relationship model between Korean new elderly class’s recovery resilience and productive aging

PubMed Central

Cho, Gun-Sang; Kim, Dae-Sung; Yi, Eun-Surk

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to verification of relationship model between Korean new elderly class’s recovery resilience and productive aging. As of 2013, this study sampled preliminary elderly people in Gyeonggi-do and other provinces nationwide. Data from a total of effective 484 subjects was analyzed. The collected data was processed using the IBM SPSS 20.0 and AMOS 20.0, and underwent descriptive statistical analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and structure model verification. The path coefficient associated with model fitness was examined. The standardization path coefficient between recovery resilience and productive aging is β=0.975 (t=14.790), revealing a statistically significant positive effect. Thus, it was found that the proposed basic model on the direct path of recovery resilience and productive aging was fit for the model. PMID:26730383

Development of the Thai healthy aging model: A grounded theory study.

PubMed

Thiamwong, Ladda; McManus, Michael S; Suwanno, Jom

2013-06-01

To develop a model of healthy aging from the perspective of Thais, a grounded theory approach, including in-depth interviews and focus groups, was used. A purposive sample of 39 community-dwelling adults aged 40-85 years old was interviewed. The Thai healthy aging model composed of three themes: normality, nature, and dharma. In Thai, they are called tham-ma-da, tham-ma-chat, and tham-ma, or "Thai 3Ts". The theme of normality encompasses subthemes of staying physically active by being involved in plenty of physical activities, and being mentally active with creative and thoughtful hobbies and work. The theme of nature encompasses subthemes of living simply and being careful with money. The theme of dharma encompasses subthemes of enjoyment through helping family and participating in community activities, staying away from stress and worries by talking openly and honestly with someone, making merit, and helping other people without expecting anything in return. A greater understanding of healthy aging is a benefit for older adults and healthcare providers in an intervention-design process. Research can contribute valuable information to shape policy for healthy aging as well. © 2013 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

A prospective analysis of the role of cognition in three models of aging and schizophrenia.

PubMed

Cohen, Carl I; Murante, Tessa

2017-07-02

This study uses longitudinal data from a sample of older adults with schizophrenia spectrum disorder (OAS) to examine the role of cognition in 3 models of aging and schizophrenia-accelerated aging, paradoxical aging, and heterogeneity of course-and their clinical relevance. The sample consisted of 103 community-dwelling persons aged 55 and over (mean=61years) with early-onset schizophrenia. Mean follow-up was 52.5months (range: 12-116months); 55% were men; 55% were white. We identified 21 potential predictor variables and used the Dementia Rating Scale (DRS) to assess cognition. There were no significant differences in the DRS at baseline (T1) and follow-up (T2). However, 20%, 22% and 58% of persons exhibited >0.5 effect size increase or decrease, or no change in their DRS scores, respectively; 19% were rapid decliners (>-2.11pts/year) and 19% were rapid improvers (>+2.11pts/year). In multivariable analysis, there were 3 predictors of higher DRS (T2): DRS (T1), decline in anxiety score, and race (white). The heterogeneity model best characterized the trajectory of cognition in later life. The accelerated aging model did not represent typical cognitive trajectories since most individuals were stable or improved. The heterogeneous trajectories made it difficult to generalize about cognition's role in the paradoxical aging model. Despite the paucity of predictors, our findings suggested that it may be clinically productive to enlist remediation strategies that target anxiety and cognition, and direct more attention to non-white OAS. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Degradation process of lead chromate in paintings by Vincent van Gogh studied by means of synchrotron X-ray spectromicroscopy and related methods. 1. Artificially aged model samples.

PubMed

Monico, Letizia; Van der Snickt, Geert; Janssens, Koen; De Nolf, Wout; Miliani, Costanza; Verbeeck, Johan; Tian, He; Tan, Haiyan; Dik, Joris; Radepont, Marie; Cotte, Marine

2011-02-15

On several paintings by artists of the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th Century a darkening of the original yellow areas, painted with the chrome yellow pigment (PbCrO(4), PbCrO(4)·xPbSO(4), or PbCrO(4)·xPbO) is observed. The most famous of these are the various Sunflowers paintings Vincent van Gogh made during his career. In the first part of this work, we attempt to elucidate the degradation process of chrome yellow by studying artificially aged model samples. In view of the very thin (1-3 μm) alteration layers that are formed, high lateral resolution spectroscopic methods such as microscopic X-ray absorption near edge (μ-XANES), X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (μ-XRF), and electron energy loss spectrometry (EELS) were employed. Some of these use synchrotron radiation (SR). Additionally, microscopic SR X-ray diffraction (SR μ-XRD), μ-Raman, and mid-FTIR spectroscopy were employed to completely characterize the samples. The formation of Cr(III) compounds at the surface of the chrome yellow paint layers is particularly observed in one aged model sample taken from a historic paint tube (ca. 1914). About two-thirds of the chromium that is present at the surface has reduced from the hexavalent to the trivalent state. The EELS and μ-XANES spectra are consistent with the presence of Cr(2)O(3)·2H(2)O (viridian). Moreover, as demonstrated by μ-XANES, the presence of another Cr(III) compound, such as either Cr(2)(SO(4))(3)·H(2)O or (CH(3)CO(2))(7)Cr(3)(OH)(2) [chromium(III) acetate hydroxide], is likely.

Age of the moon: An isotopic study of uranium-thorium-lead systematics of lunar samples

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tatsumoto, M.; Rosholt, J.N.

1970-01-01

Concentrations of U, Th, and Pb in Apollo 11 samples studied are low (U. 0.16 to 0.87; Th, 0.53 to 3.4; Pb, 0.29 to 1.7, in ppm) but the extremely radiogenic lead in samples allows radiometric dating. The fine dust and the breccia have a concordant age of 4.66 billion years on the basis of 207Pb/206Pb, 206Pb/238U, 207Pb/235U, and 208Pb/232Th ratios. This age is comparable with the age of meteorites and with the age generally accepted for the earth. Six crystalline and vesicular samples are distinctly younger than the dust and breccia. The 238U/235U ratio is the same as that in earth rocks, and 234U is in radioactive equilibrium with parent 238U.

Personality and Other Lifelong Influences on Older-Age Health and Wellbeing: Preliminary Findings in Two Scottish Samples.

PubMed

Harris, Mathew A; Brett, Caroline E; Starr, John M; Deary, Ian J; Johnson, Wendy

2016-01-01

Recent observations that personality traits are related to later-life health and wellbeing have inspired considerable interest in exploring the mechanisms involved. Other factors, such as cognitive ability and education, also show longitudinal influences on health and wellbeing, but it is not yet clear how all these early-life factors together contribute to later-life health and wellbeing. In this preliminary study, we assessed hypothesised relations among these variables across the life course, using structural equation modelling in a sample assessed on dependability (a personality trait related to conscientiousness) in childhood, cognitive ability and social class in childhood and older age, education, and health and subjective wellbeing in older age. Our models indicated that both health and subjective wellbeing in older age were influenced by childhood IQ and social class, via education. Some older-age personality traits mediated the effects of early-life variables, on subjective wellbeing in particular, but childhood dependability did not show significant associations. Our results therefore did not provide evidence that childhood dependability promotes older-age health and wellbeing, but did highlight the importance of other early-life factors, particularly characteristics that contribute to educational attainment. Further, personality in later life may mediate the effects of early-life factors on health and subjective wellbeing. © 2016 The Authors. European Journal of Personality published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Association of Personality Psychology.

Perceived social support in a large community sample--age and sex differences.

PubMed

Coventry, W L; Gillespie, N A; Heath, A C; Martin, N G

2004-08-01

The positive health and wellbeing effects of social support have been consistently demonstrated in the literature since the late 1970s. However, a better understanding of the effects of age and sex is required. We examined the factor structure and reliability of Kessler's Perceived Social Support (KPSS) measure in a community-based sample that comprised younger and older adult cohorts from the Australian Twin Registry (ATR), totalling 11,389 males and females aged 18-95, of whom 887 were retested 25 months later. Factor analysis consistently identified seven factors: support from spouse, twin, children, parents, relatives, friends and helping support. Internal reliability for the seven dimensions ranged from 0.87 to 0.71 and test-retest reliability ranged from 0.75 to 0.48. Perceived support was only marginally higher in females. Age dependencies were explored. Across the age range, there was a slight decline (more marked in females) in the perceived support from spouse, parent and friend, a slight increase in perceived relative and helping support for males but none for females, a substantial increase in the perceived support from children for males and females and a negligible decline in total KPSS for females against a negligible increase for males. The perceived support from twin remained constant. Females were more likely to have a confidant, although this declined with age whilst increasing with age for males. Total scores for perceived social support conflate heterogeneous patterns on sub-scales that differ markedly by age and sex. Our paper describes these relationships in detail in a very large Australian sample.

The Hierarchical Factor Model of ADHD: Invariant across Age and National Groupings?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Toplak, Maggie E.; Sorge, Geoff B.; Flora, David B.; Chen, Wai; Banaschewski, Tobias; Buitelaar, Jan; Ebstein, Richard; Eisenberg, Jacques; Franke, Barbara; Gill, Michael; Miranda, Ana; Oades, Robert D.; Roeyers, Herbert; Rothenberger, Aribert; Sergeant, Joseph; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Thompson, Margaret; Tannock, Rosemary; Asherson, Philip; Faraone, Stephen V.

2012-01-01

Objective: To examine the factor structure of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in a clinical sample of 1,373 children and adolescents with ADHD and their 1,772 unselected siblings recruited from different countries across a large age range. Hierarchical and correlated factor analytic models were compared separately in the ADHD and…

Application of a conductive polymer electronic-nose device to identify aged woody samples

Treesearch

Alphus D. Wilson

2012-01-01

The identification of aged woody samples is often a difficult task as a result of weathering and physical deterioration over time which removes or obscures distinguishing anatomical features and characteristics required for visual taxonomic determinations. Fortunately, the chemical characteristics of aged woods usually are preserved better than physical characteristics...

Sampling Strategies and Processing of Biobank Tissue Samples from Porcine Biomedical Models.

PubMed

Blutke, Andreas; Wanke, Rüdiger

2018-03-06

In translational medical research, porcine models have steadily become more popular. Considering the high value of individual animals, particularly of genetically modified pig models, and the often-limited number of available animals of these models, establishment of (biobank) collections of adequately processed tissue samples suited for a broad spectrum of subsequent analyses methods, including analyses not specified at the time point of sampling, represent meaningful approaches to take full advantage of the translational value of the model. With respect to the peculiarities of porcine anatomy, comprehensive guidelines have recently been established for standardized generation of representative, high-quality samples from different porcine organs and tissues. These guidelines are essential prerequisites for the reproducibility of results and their comparability between different studies and investigators. The recording of basic data, such as organ weights and volumes, the determination of the sampling locations and of the numbers of tissue samples to be generated, as well as their orientation, size, processing and trimming directions, are relevant factors determining the generalizability and usability of the specimen for molecular, qualitative, and quantitative morphological analyses. Here, an illustrative, practical, step-by-step demonstration of the most important techniques for generation of representative, multi-purpose biobank specimen from porcine tissues is presented. The methods described here include determination of organ/tissue volumes and densities, the application of a volume-weighted systematic random sampling procedure for parenchymal organs by point-counting, determination of the extent of tissue shrinkage related to histological embedding of samples, and generation of randomly oriented samples for quantitative stereological analyses, such as isotropic uniform random (IUR) sections generated by the "Orientator" and "Isector" methods, and vertical

Exactly solvable models of growing interfaces and lattice gases: the Arcetri models, ageing and logarithmic sub-ageing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durang, Xavier; Henkel, Malte

2017-12-01

Motivated by an analogy with the spherical model of a ferromagnet, the three Arcetri models are defined. They present new universality classes, either for the growth of interfaces, or else for lattice gases. They are distinct from the common Edwards-Wilkinson and Kardar-Parisi-Zhang universality classes. Their non-equilibrium evolution can be studied by the exact computation of their two-time correlators and responses. In both interpretations, the first model has a critical point in any dimension and shows simple ageing at and below criticality. The exact universal exponents are found. The second and third model are solved at zero temperature, in one dimension, where both show logarithmic sub-ageing, of which several distinct types are identified. Physically, the second model describes a lattice gas and the third model describes interface growth. A clear physical picture on the subsequent time and length scales of the sub-ageing process emerges.

Modeling abundance using hierarchical distance sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, Andy; Kery, Marc

2016-01-01

In this chapter, we provide an introduction to classical distance sampling ideas for point and line transect data, and for continuous and binned distance data. We introduce the conditional and the full likelihood, and we discuss Bayesian analysis of these models in BUGS using the idea of data augmentation, which we discussed in Chapter 7. We then extend the basic ideas to the problem of hierarchical distance sampling (HDS), where we have multiple point or transect sample units in space (or possibly in time). The benefit of HDS in practice is that it allows us to directly model spatial variation in population size among these sample units. This is a preeminent concern of most field studies that use distance sampling methods, but it is not a problem that has received much attention in the literature. We show how to analyze HDS models in both the unmarked package and in the BUGS language for point and line transects, and for continuous and binned distance data. We provide a case study of HDS applied to a survey of the island scrub-jay on Santa Cruz Island, California.

Age-related DNA methylation changes for forensic age-prediction.

PubMed

Yi, Shao Hua; Jia, Yun Shu; Mei, Kun; Yang, Rong Zhi; Huang, Dai Xin

2015-03-01

There is no available method of age-prediction for biological samples. The accumulating evidences indicate that DNA methylation patterns change with age. Aging resembles a developmentally regulated process that is tightly controlled by specific epigenetic modifications and age-associated methylation changes exist in human genome. In this study, three age-related methylation fragments were isolated and identified in blood of 40 donors. Age-related methylation changes with each fragment was validated and replicated in a general population sample of 65 donors over a wide age range (11-72 years). Methylation of these fragments is linearly correlated with age over a range of six decades (r = 0.80-0.88). Using average methylation of CpG sites of three fragments, a regression model that explained 95 % of the variance in age was built and is able to predict an individual's age with great accuracy (R (2 )= 0.93). The predicted value is highly correlated with the observed age in the sample (r = 0.96) and has great accuracy of average 4 years difference between predicted age and true age. This study implicates that DNA methylation can be an available biological marker of age-prediction. Further measurement of relevant markers in the genome could be a tool in routine screening to predict age of forensic biological samples.

Integrating Growth Variability of the Ilium, Fifth Lumbar Vertebra, and Clavicle with Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines Models for Subadult Age Estimation.

PubMed

Corron, Louise; Marchal, François; Condemi, Silvana; Telmon, Norbert; Chaumoitre, Kathia; Adalian, Pascal

2018-05-31

Subadult age estimation should rely on sampling and statistical protocols capturing development variability for more accurate age estimates. In this perspective, measurements were taken on the fifth lumbar vertebrae and/or clavicles of 534 French males and females aged 0-19 years and the ilia of 244 males and females aged 0-12 years. These variables were fitted in nonparametric multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) models with 95% prediction intervals (PIs) of age. The models were tested on two independent samples from Marseille and the Luis Lopes reference collection from Lisbon. Models using ilium width and module, maximum clavicle length, and lateral vertebral body heights were more than 92% accurate. Precision was lower for postpubertal individuals. Integrating punctual nonlinearities of the relationship between age and the variables and dynamic prediction intervals incorporated the normal increase in interindividual growth variability (heteroscedasticity of variance) with age for more biologically accurate predictions. © 2018 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Synthesizing Information from Language Samples and Standardized Tests in School-Age Bilingual Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ebert, Kerry Danahy; Pham, Giang

2017-01-01

Purpose: Although language samples and standardized tests are regularly used in assessment, few studies provide clinical guidance on how to synthesize information from these testing tools. This study extends previous work on the relations between tests and language samples to a new population--school-age bilingual speakers with primary language…

The Gifted Rating Scales-School Form: An Analysis of the Standardization Sample Based on Age, Gender, Race, and Diagnostic Efficiency

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pfeiffer, Steven I.; Jarosewich, Tania

2007-01-01

This study analyzes the standardization sample of a new teacher rating scale designed to assist in the identification of gifted students. The Gifted Rating Scales-School Form (GRS-S) is based on a multidimensional model of giftedness. Results indicate no age or race/ethnicity differences on any of the scales and small but significant differences…

Development of a bioenergetics model for age-0 American Shad

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauter, Sally T.

2011-01-01

many of the salmonids and predatory fishes encountered in the lower Columbia River (Petersen and Ward 1999). The Wisconsin bioenergetics model has not been developed for American shad, however Limburg (1996) parameterized a simplified bioenergetics growth model for this species. A common application for the Wisconsin bioenergetics model is to estimate the consumption or growth of a fish population under different temperature and feeding scenarios (Ney 1993). One advantage of the bioenergetics approach is that consumption can be estimated without direct field measurements of predation rate (prey·predator^-1· day^-1; Petersen and Ward 1999). Field estimates of fish consumption are time consuming and costly to determine, and estimates may show wide variance due to environmental and sampling variability. However, the consumption parameters used in a newly developed bioenergetics model must be verified with field and laboratory estimates of consumption (Ney 1993).

The objective of this research was to parameterize a Wisconsin bioenergetics model for age-0 American shad using published physiological data on American shad and closely related alosine species. The American shad bioenergetics model will be used as a tool to explore various hypotheses about how age-0 American shad directly and indirectly affect Columbia River salmon through ecological interactions in lower Columbia River food webs. One over-arching focus of the larger research project was to identify potential interactions between age-0 American shad and juvenile salmonids, addressing potential outcomes through bioenergetics modeling scenarios. This report contains two bioenergetics modeling applications to demonstrate how these models can be used to address management questions and direct research effort. The first modeling application uses the American shad bioenergetics model described in this report to explore prey consumption by age-0 American shad (Chapter 1, this report

Personality and Other Lifelong Influences on Older‐Age Health and Wellbeing: Preliminary Findings in Two Scottish Samples

PubMed Central

Brett, Caroline E.; Starr, John M.; Deary, Ian J.

2016-01-01

Abstract Recent observations that personality traits are related to later‐life health and wellbeing have inspired considerable interest in exploring the mechanisms involved. Other factors, such as cognitive ability and education, also show longitudinal influences on health and wellbeing, but it is not yet clear how all these early‐life factors together contribute to later‐life health and wellbeing. In this preliminary study, we assessed hypothesised relations among these variables across the life course, using structural equation modelling in a sample assessed on dependability (a personality trait related to conscientiousness) in childhood, cognitive ability and social class in childhood and older age, education, and health and subjective wellbeing in older age. Our models indicated that both health and subjective wellbeing in older age were influenced by childhood IQ and social class, via education. Some older‐age personality traits mediated the effects of early‐life variables, on subjective wellbeing in particular, but childhood dependability did not show significant associations. Our results therefore did not provide evidence that childhood dependability promotes older‐age health and wellbeing, but did highlight the importance of other early‐life factors, particularly characteristics that contribute to educational attainment. Further, personality in later life may mediate the effects of early‐life factors on health and subjective wellbeing. © 2016 The Authors. European Journal of Personality published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Association of Personality Psychology PMID:27867259

Stratification of American hearing aid users by age and audiometric characteristics: a method for representative sampling.

PubMed

Aronoff, Justin M; Yoon, Yang-soo; Soli, Sigfrid D

2010-06-01

Stratified sampling plans can increase the accuracy and facilitate the interpretation of a dataset characterizing a large population. However, such sampling plans have found minimal use in hearing aid (HA) research, in part because of a paucity of quantitative data on the characteristics of HA users. The goal of this study was to devise a quantitatively derived stratified sampling plan for HA research, so that such studies will be more representative and generalizable, and the results obtained using this method are more easily reinterpreted as the population changes. Pure-tone average (PTA) and age information were collected for 84,200 HAs acquired in 2006 and 2007. The distribution of PTA and age was quantified for each HA type and for a composite of all HA users. Based on their respective distributions, PTA and age were each divided into three groups, the combination of which defined the stratification plan. The most populous PTA and age group was also subdivided, allowing greater homogeneity within strata. Finally, the percentage of users in each stratum was calculated. This article provides a stratified sampling plan for HA research, based on a quantitative analysis of the distribution of PTA and age for HA users. Adopting such a sampling plan will make HA research results more representative and generalizable. In addition, data acquired using such plans can be reinterpreted as the HA population changes.

System Models and Aging: A Driving Example.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Melichar, Joseph F.

Chronological age is a marker in time but it fails to measure accurately the performance or behavioral characteristics of individuals. This paper models the complexity of aging by using a system model and a human function paradigm. These models help facilitate representation of older adults, integrate research agendas, and enhance remediative…

Toward a model for improved targeting of aged at risk of institutionalization.

PubMed Central

Weissert, W G; Cready, C M

1989-01-01

A national sample of institutionalized and noninstitutionalized aged was created by merging the 1977 National Nursing Home Survey and its counterpart, the National Health Interview Survey for the same year. A weighted logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify factors that might be useful in calculating home- and community-based long-term care clients' risk of institutionalization. A model containing patient characteristics, nursing home bed supply, and a climate variable correctly classified 98.2 percent of cases residing in nursing homes or the community. Physical dependency, mental disorder and degenerative disease, lack of spouse, being white, poverty, old age, unoccupied nursing home beds, and climate all appear to be determinants of institutional residency among the aged. PMID:2807934

Predictors of retest effects in a longitudinal study of cognitive aging in a diverse community-based sample

PubMed Central

Gross, Alden L.; Benitez, Andreana; Shih, Regina; Bangen, Katherine J.; Glymour, M Maria M; Sachs, Bonnie; Sisco, Shannon; Skinner, Jeannine; Schneider, Brooke C.; Manly, Jennifer J.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE Better performance due to repeated testing can bias long-term trajectories of cognitive aging and correlates of change. We examined whether retest effects differ as a function of individual differences pertinent to cognitive aging: race/ethnicity, age, sex, language, years of education, and dementia risk factors including APOE ε4 status, baseline cognitive performance, and cardiovascular risk. METHOD We used data from the Washington Heights-Inwood Columbia Aging Project, a community-based cohort of older adults (n=4,073). We modeled cognitive change and retest effects in summary factors for general cognitive performance, memory, executive functioning, and language using multilevel models. Retest effects were parameterized in two ways, as improvement between the first and subsequent testings, and as the square root of the number of prior testings. We evaluated whether the retest effect differed by individual characteristics. RESULTS The mean retest effect for general cognitive performance was 0.60 standard deviations (95%CI: 0.46, 0.74), and was similar for memory, executive functioning, and language. Retest effects were greater for participants in the lowest quartile of cognitive performance, consistent with regression to the mean. Retest did not differ by other characteristics. CONCLUSIONS Retest effects are large in this community-based sample, but do not vary by demographic or dementia-related characteristics. Differential retest effects may not limit the generalizability of inferences across different groups in longitudinal research. PMID:26527240

Progeroid syndromes: models for stem cell aging?

PubMed

Bellantuono, I; Sanguinetti, G; Keith, W N

2012-02-01

Stem cells are responsible for tissue repair and maintenance and it is assumed that changes observed in the stem cell compartment with age underlie the concomitant decline in tissue function. Studies in murine models have highlighted the importance of intrinsic changes occurring in stem cells with age. They have also drawn the attention to other factors, such as changes in the local or systemic environment as the primary cause of stem cell dysfunction. Whilst knowledge in murine models has been advancing rapidly there has been little translation of these data to human aging. This is most likely due to the difficulties of testing the regenerative capacity of human stem cells in vivo and to substantial differences in the aging phenotype within humans. Here we summarize evidence to show how progeroid syndromes, integrated with other models, can be valuable tools in addressing questions about the role of stem cell aging in human degenerative diseases of older age and the molecular pathways involved.

Shared Ageing Research Models (ShARM): a new facility to support ageing research.

PubMed

Duran, Adele L; Potter, Paul; Wells, Sara; Kirkwood, Tom; von Zglinicki, Thomas; McArdle, Anne; Scudamore, Cheryl; Meng, Qing-Jun; de Haan, Gerald; Corcoran, Anne; Bellantuono, Ilaria

2013-12-01

In order to manage the rise in life expectancy and the concomitant increased occurrence of age-related diseases, research into ageing has become a strategic priority. Mouse models are commonly utilised as they share high homology with humans and show many similar signs and diseases of ageing. However, the time and cost needed to rear aged cohorts can limit research opportunities. Sharing of resources can provide an ethically and economically superior framework to overcome some of these issues but requires dedicated infrastructure. Shared Ageing Research Models (ShARM) ( www.ShARMUK.org ) is a new, not-for-profit organisation funded by Wellcome Trust, open to all investigators. It collects, stores and distributes flash frozen tissues from aged murine models through its biorepository and provides a database of live ageing mouse colonies available in the UK and abroad. It also has an online environment (MICEspace) for collation and analysis of data from communal models and discussion boards on subjects such as the welfare of ageing animals and common endpoints for intervention studies. Since launching in July 2012, thanks to the generosity of researchers in UK and Europe, ShARM has collected more than 2,500 tissues and has in excess of 2,000 mice registered in live ageing colonies. By providing the appropriate support, ShARM has been able to bring together the knowledge and experience of investigators in the UK and Europe to maximise research outputs with little additional cost and minimising animal use in order to facilitate progress in ageing research.

Digital Coordinates and Age for 3,869 Foraminifer Samples Collected by Chevron Petroleum Geologists in Washington and Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

West, William B.; Brabb, Earl E.; Malmborg, William T.; Parker, John M.

2009-01-01

The general location and age of more than 33,500 mostly foraminifer samples from Chevron Petroleum Company surface localities in California were provided by Brabb and Parker (2003, 2005). Malmborg and others (2008) provided digital latitude, longitude, and age for more than 13,000 of these samples. We provide here for the first time the digital latitude, longitude, and age for nearly 4,000 Chevron surface and auger samples in Washington and Oregon.

Systematic identification of yeast proteins extracted into model wine during aging on the yeast lees.

PubMed

Rowe, Jeffrey D; Harbertson, James F; Osborne, James P; Freitag, Michael; Lim, Juyun; Bakalinsky, Alan T

2010-02-24

Total protein and protein-associated mannan concentrations were measured, and individual proteins were identified during extraction into model wines over 9 months of aging on the yeast lees following completion of fermentations by seven wine strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. In aged wines, protein-associated mannan increased about 6-fold (+/-66%), while total protein only increased 2-fold (+/-20%), which resulted in a significantly greater protein-associated mannan/total protein ratio for three strains. A total of 219 proteins were identified among all wine samples taken over the entire time course. Of the 17 "long-lived" proteins detected in all 9 month samples, 13 were cell wall mannoproteins, and four were glycolytic enzymes. Most cytosolic proteins were not detected after 6 months. Native mannosylated yeast invertase was assayed for binding to wine tannin and was found to have a 10-fold lower affinity than nonglycosylated bovine serum albumin. Enrichment of mannoproteins in the aged model wines implies greater solution stability than other yeast proteins and the possibility that their contributions to wine quality may persist long after bottling.

Late Quaternary sedimentological and climate changes at Lake Bosumtwi Ghana: new constraints from laminae analysis and radiocarbon age modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shanahan, Timothy M.; Beck, J. Warren; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; McKay, Nicholas P.; Pigati, Jeffrey S.; Peck, John A.; Scholz, Christopher A.; Heil, Clifford W.; King, John W.

2012-01-01

The Lake Bosumtwi sediment record represents one of the longest and highest-resolution terrestrial records of paleoclimate change available from sub-Saharan Africa. Here we report a new sediment age model framework for the last ~ 45 cal kyr of sedimentation using a combination of high-resolution radiocarbon dating, Bayesian age-depth modeling and lamination counting. Our results highlight the practical limits of these methods for reducing age model uncertainties and suggest that even with very high sampling densities, radiocarbon uncertainties of at least a few hundred years are unavoidable. Age model uncertainties are smallest during the Holocene (205 yr) and the glacial (360 yr) but are large at the base of the record (1660 yr), due to a combination of decreasing sample density, larger calibration uncertainties and increases in radiocarbon age scatter. For portions of the chronology older than ~ 35 cal kyr, additional considerations, such as the use of a low-blank graphitization system and more rigorous sample pretreatment were necessary to generate a reliable age depth model because of the incorporation of small amounts of younger carbon. A comparison of radiocarbon age model results and lamination counts over the time interval ~ 15–30 cal kyr agree with an overall discrepancy of ~ 10% and display similar changes in sedimentation rate, supporting the annual nature of sediment laminations in the early part of the record. Changes in sedimentation rates reconstructed from the age-depth model indicate that intervals of enhanced sediment delivery occurred at 16–19, 24 and 29–31 cal kyr, broadly synchronous with reconstructed drought episodes elsewhere in northern West Africa and potentially, with changes in Atlantic meridional heat transport during North Atlantic Heinrich events. These data suggest that millennial-scale drought events in the West African monsoon region were latitudinally extensive, reaching within several hundred kilometers of the Guinea coast

Evaluating the All-Ages Lead Model Using SiteSpecific Data ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Lead (Pb) exposure continues to be a problem in the United States. Even after years of progress in reducing environmental levels, CDC estimates at least 500,000 U.S. children ages 1-5 years have blood Pb levels (BLL) above the CDC reference level of 5 µg/dL. Childhood Pb exposure is associated with neurological consequences and public health professionals continue to work to reduce Pb exposures. To better understand the relationship between exposure and BLL, the USEPA has developed a beta version of the All-Ages Lead Model (AALM). Compared to the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetics (IEUBK) Model for lead in children, the AALM provides greater flexibility to describe Pb exposures (acute or chronic, constant or intermittent) for any age. At this time, the AALM has the capability to predict exposure in each of the following media: dust/soil, water, air, food, and other. As part of an interagency test group, we evaluated the ability of the AALM beta v4.2 (Leggett version) to predict BLLs for children that were exposed to Pb in their environment near the John T. Lewis and Bros Lead Smelter Superfund site. The model predicted that fourteen children met our inclusion criteria that spent less than 20 hours a week away from the home (e.g., no daycare or school) and had paired BLL and environmental sampling data (i.e., Pb in soil, window sill dust, front door dust, floor dust, and drinking water). The model can predict average BLLs, but it remains difficult to predic

Monitoring, Modeling, and Diagnosis of Alkali-Silica Reaction in Small Concrete Samples

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Agarwal, Vivek; Cai, Guowei; Gribok, Andrei V.

Assessment and management of aging concrete structures in nuclear power plants require a more systematic approach than simple reliance on existing code margins of safety. Structural health monitoring of concrete structures aims to understand the current health condition of a structure based on heterogeneous measurements to produce high-confidence actionable information regarding structural integrity that supports operational and maintenance decisions. This report describes alkali-silica reaction (ASR) degradation mechanisms and factors influencing the ASR. A fully coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical model developed by Saouma and Perotti by taking into consideration the effects of stress on the reaction kinetics and anisotropic volumetric expansion is presentedmore » in this report. This model is implemented in the GRIZZLY code based on the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment. The implemented model in the GRIZZLY code is randomly used to initiate ASR in a 2D and 3D lattice to study the percolation aspects of concrete. The percolation aspects help determine the transport properties of the material and therefore the durability and service life of concrete. This report summarizes the effort to develop small-size concrete samples with embedded glass to mimic ASR. The concrete samples were treated in water and sodium hydroxide solution at elevated temperature to study how ingress of sodium ions and hydroxide ions at elevated temperature impacts concrete samples embedded with glass. Thermal camera was used to monitor the changes in the concrete sample and results are summarized.« less

Models for predicting turnover of residential aged care nurses: a structural equation modelling analysis of secondary data.

PubMed

Gao, Fengsong; Newcombe, Peter; Tilse, Cheryl; Wilson, Jill; Tuckett, Anthony

2014-09-01

Nurse turnover in the residential aged care industry is a pressing issue. Researchers have shown ongoing interest in exploring how the factors that are amendable to change in aged care policy, regulation and funding and in organizational procedures (e.g. job demands, coping resources and psychological health of nurses) impact on turnover. However, the findings are mixed. This study tested two theoretical models of turnover to examine the structural relationships among job demands, coping resources, psychological health and turnover of residential aged care nurses. Although many previous studies operationalized turnover as intention to leave, the present study investigated actual turnover by following up with the same individuals over time, and thus provided more accurate predictive models of turnover behaviour. The sample, 239 Australian residential aged care nurses, came from the Nurses and Midwives e-cohort Study. Job demands, coping resources, and psychological health were measured using standardized instruments. Structural equation modelling was used to test the measurement and structural models. Controlling for a number of workforce and individual characteristics, coping resources (measured by job control, supervisor support, and co-worker support) were negatively and directly associated with turnover. Additionally, the findings supported the Job Demand-Control-Support model in that higher coping resources and lower job demands (indicated by psychological demands, physical demands, and effort) were related to better psychological health (measured by vitality, social functioning, role emotional, and mental health), and higher job demands were related to lower coping resources. Findings suggest that aged care policy makers and service providers might consider increasing coping resources available to nurses and minimizing job demands of care work to reduce turnover and improve nurses' psychological health. Moreover, findings from this Australian study may provide

Transcriptional profiling reveals progeroid Ercc1-/Δ mice as a model system for glomerular aging

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Aging-related kidney diseases are a major health concern. Currently, models to study renal aging are lacking. Due to a reduced life-span progeroid models hold the promise to facilitate aging studies and allow examination of tissue-specific changes. Defects in genome maintenance in the Ercc1-/Δ progeroid mouse model result in premature aging and typical age-related pathologies. Here, we compared the glomerular transcriptome of young and aged Ercc1-deficient mice to young and aged WT mice in order to establish a novel model for research of aging-related kidney disease. Results In a principal component analysis, age and genotype emerged as first and second principal components. Hierarchical clustering of all 521 genes differentially regulated between young and old WT and young and old Ercc1-/Δ mice showed cluster formation between young WT and Ercc1-/Δ as well as old WT and Ercc1-/Δ samples. An unexpectedly high number of 77 genes were differentially regulated in both WT and Ercc1-/Δ mice (p < 0.0001). GO term enrichment analysis revealed these genes to be involved in immune and inflammatory response, cell death, and chemotaxis. In a network analysis, these genes were part of insulin signaling, chemokine and cytokine signaling and extracellular matrix pathways. Conclusion Beyond insulin signaling, we find chemokine and cytokine signaling as well as modifiers of extracellular matrix composition to be subject to major changes in the aging glomerulus. At the level of the transcriptome, the pattern of gene activities is similar in the progeroid Ercc1-/Δ mouse model constituting a valuable tool for future studies of aging-associated glomerular pathologies. PMID:23947592

Transcriptional profiling reveals progeroid Ercc1(-/Δ) mice as a model system for glomerular aging.

PubMed

Schermer, Bernhard; Bartels, Valerie; Frommolt, Peter; Habermann, Bianca; Braun, Fabian; Schultze, Joachim L; Roodbergen, Marianne; Hoeijmakers, Jan Hj; Schumacher, Björn; Nürnberg, Peter; Dollé, Martijn Et; Benzing, Thomas; Müller, Roman-Ulrich; Kurschat, Christine E

2013-08-16

Aging-related kidney diseases are a major health concern. Currently, models to study renal aging are lacking. Due to a reduced life-span progeroid models hold the promise to facilitate aging studies and allow examination of tissue-specific changes. Defects in genome maintenance in the Ercc1(-/Δ) progeroid mouse model result in premature aging and typical age-related pathologies. Here, we compared the glomerular transcriptome of young and aged Ercc1-deficient mice to young and aged WT mice in order to establish a novel model for research of aging-related kidney disease. In a principal component analysis, age and genotype emerged as first and second principal components. Hierarchical clustering of all 521 genes differentially regulated between young and old WT and young and old Ercc1(-/Δ) mice showed cluster formation between young WT and Ercc1(-/Δ) as well as old WT and Ercc1(-/Δ) samples. An unexpectedly high number of 77 genes were differentially regulated in both WT and Ercc1(-/Δ) mice (p < 0.0001). GO term enrichment analysis revealed these genes to be involved in immune and inflammatory response, cell death, and chemotaxis. In a network analysis, these genes were part of insulin signaling, chemokine and cytokine signaling and extracellular matrix pathways. Beyond insulin signaling, we find chemokine and cytokine signaling as well as modifiers of extracellular matrix composition to be subject to major changes in the aging glomerulus. At the level of the transcriptome, the pattern of gene activities is similar in the progeroid Ercc1(-/Δ) mouse model constituting a valuable tool for future studies of aging-associated glomerular pathologies.

The potential of artificial aging for modelling of natural aging processes of ballpoint ink.

PubMed

Weyermann, Céline; Spengler, Bernhard

2008-08-25

Artificial aging has been used to reproduce natural aging processes in an accelerated pace. Questioned documents were exposed to light or high temperature in a well-defined manner in order to simulate an increased age. This may be used to study the aging processes or to date documents by reproducing their aging curve. Ink was studied especially because it is deposited on the paper when a document, such as a contract, is produced. Once on the paper, aging processes start through degradation of dyes, solvents drying and resins polymerisation. Modelling of dye's and solvent's aging was attempted. These processes, however, follow complex pathways, influenced by many factors which can be classified as three major groups: ink composition, paper type and storage conditions. The influence of these factors is such that different aging states can be obtained for an identical point in time. Storage conditions in particular are difficult to simulate, as they are dependent on environmental conditions (e.g. intensity and dose of light, temperature, air flow, humidity) and cannot be controlled in the natural aging of questioned documents. The problem therefore lies more in the variety of different conditions a questioned document might be exposed to during its natural aging, rather than in the simulation of such conditions in the laboratory. Nevertheless, a precise modelling of natural aging curves based on artificial aging curves is obtained when performed on the same paper and ink. A standard model for aging processes of ink on paper is therefore presented that is based on a fit of aging curves to a power law of solvent concentrations as a function of time. A mathematical transformation of artificial aging curves into modelled natural aging curves results in excellent overlap with data from real natural aging processes.

Animal and human models to understand ageing.

PubMed

Lees, Hayley; Walters, Hannah; Cox, Lynne S

2016-11-01

Human ageing is the gradual decline in organ and tissue function with increasing chronological time, leading eventually to loss of function and death. To study the processes involved over research-relevant timescales requires the use of accessible model systems that share significant similarities with humans. In this review, we assess the usefulness of various models, including unicellular yeasts, invertebrate worms and flies, mice and primates including humans, and highlight the benefits and possible drawbacks of each model system in its ability to illuminate human ageing mechanisms. We describe the strong evolutionary conservation of molecular pathways that govern cell responses to extracellular and intracellular signals and which are strongly implicated in ageing. Such pathways centre around insulin-like growth factor signalling and integration of stress and nutritional signals through mTOR kinase. The process of cellular senescence is evaluated as a possible underlying cause for many of the frailties and diseases of human ageing. Also considered is ageing arising from systemic changes that cannot be modelled in lower organisms and instead require studies either in small mammals or in primates. We also touch briefly on novel therapeutic options arising from a better understanding of the biology of ageing. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Preferential sampling and Bayesian geostatistics: Statistical modeling and examples.

PubMed

Cecconi, Lorenzo; Grisotto, Laura; Catelan, Dolores; Lagazio, Corrado; Berrocal, Veronica; Biggeri, Annibale

2016-08-01

Preferential sampling refers to any situation in which the spatial process and the sampling locations are not stochastically independent. In this paper, we present two examples of geostatistical analysis in which the usual assumption of stochastic independence between the point process and the measurement process is violated. To account for preferential sampling, we specify a flexible and general Bayesian geostatistical model that includes a shared spatial random component. We apply the proposed model to two different case studies that allow us to highlight three different modeling and inferential aspects of geostatistical modeling under preferential sampling: (1) continuous or finite spatial sampling frame; (2) underlying causal model and relevant covariates; and (3) inferential goals related to mean prediction surface or prediction uncertainty. © The Author(s) 2016.

An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner,; Richard B Chandler,; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett,

2015-01-01

Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model.

PubMed

Sollmann, Rahel; Gardner, Beth; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew; Sillett, T Scott

2015-02-01

Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for Island Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying numbers of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

Association between the prevalence of depression and age in a large representative German sample of people aged 53 to 80 years.

PubMed

Wild, Beate; Herzog, Wolfgang; Schellberg, Dieter; Lechner, Sabine; Niehoff, Doro; Brenner, Hermann; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Stegmaier, Christa; Raum, Elke

2012-04-01

The aim of the study was to determine the association between the prevalence of clinically significant depression and age in a large representative sample of elderly German people. In the second follow-up (2005-2007) of the ESTHER cohort study, the 15-item geriatric depression scale (GDS-15) as well as a sociodemographic and clinical questionnaire were administered to a representative sample of 8270 people of ages 53 to 80 years. The prevalence of clinically significant depression was estimated using a GDS cut-off score of 5/6. Prevalence rates were estimated for the different age categories. Association between depression and age was analyzed using logistic regression, adjusted for gender, co-morbid medical disorders, education, marital status, physical activity, smoking, self-perceived cognitive impairment, and anti-depressive medication. Of the participants, 7878 (95.3%) completed more than twelve GDS items and were included in the study. The prevalence of clinically significant depression was 16.0% (95%CI = [15.2; 16.6]). The function of depression prevalence dependent on age group showed a U-shaped pattern (53-59: 21.0%, CI = [18.9; 23.3]; 60-64: 17.7%, CI = [15.7; 19.7]; 65-69: 12.6%, CI = [11.2; 14.0]; 70-74: 14.4%, CI = [12.6; 16.0]; 75-80: 17.1%, CI = [14.9; 19.4]). Adjusted odds ratios showed that the chances of being depressive decrease with the age category but remain relatively stable for people aged 65 and over. The prevalence of depression in the elderly seems to be associated with the age category. Adjusted odds ratios showed that people aged 60 and older had lower chances of being depressive than people aged 53 to 59 years. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sampling model of government travel vouchers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, P.S.; Wright, T.

1987-02-01

A pilot survey was designed and executed to better understand the structure of the universe of all government travel vouchers. Thirteen civilian and military sites were selected for the pilot survey. A total of 3916 travel vouchers with attached tickets were sampled. During the course of the pilot survey, it was felt that the compounding problems of the relative rarity of the expired, unused tickets and the enormously huge universe were too much of an obstacle to overcome in sampling the entire universe (including the US Air Force, US Army, US Navy, US Marines, other Department of Defense offices, andmore » civil) in the first year. The universe was then narrowed to the US Air Force, and US Army which have to two largest government travel expenditures. Based on the results of the pilot survey, ORNL recommends a stratified two-stage cluster sampling model. With probability of 0.90, a sample of size 78 (sites) will be needed to estimate the amounts per airline which will not be more than $50,000 from the true values. This sampling model allows one to estimate the total dollar amounts of expired, unused tickets for individual airlines.« less

The yeast replicative aging model.

PubMed

He, Chong; Zhou, Chuankai; Kennedy, Brian K

2018-03-08

It has been nearly three decades since the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae became a significant model organism for aging research and it has emerged as both simple and powerful. The replicative aging assay, which interrogates the number of times a "mother" cell can divide and produce "daughters", has been a stalwart in these studies, and genetic approaches have led to the identification of hundreds of genes impacting lifespan. More recently, cell biological and biochemical approaches have been developed to determine how cellular processes become altered with age. Together, the tools are in place to develop a holistic view of aging in this single-celled organism. Here, we summarize the current state of understanding of yeast replicative aging with a focus on the recent studies that shed new light on how aging pathways interact to modulate lifespan in yeast. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The heuristic value of redundancy models of aging.

PubMed

Boonekamp, Jelle J; Briga, Michael; Verhulst, Simon

2015-11-01

Molecular studies of aging aim to unravel the cause(s) of aging bottom-up, but linking these mechanisms to organismal level processes remains a challenge. We propose that complementary top-down data-directed modelling of organismal level empirical findings may contribute to developing these links. To this end, we explore the heuristic value of redundancy models of aging to develop a deeper insight into the mechanisms causing variation in senescence and lifespan. We start by showing (i) how different redundancy model parameters affect projected aging and mortality, and (ii) how variation in redundancy model parameters relates to variation in parameters of the Gompertz equation. Lifestyle changes or medical interventions during life can modify mortality rate, and we investigate (iii) how interventions that change specific redundancy parameters within the model affect subsequent mortality and actuarial senescence. Lastly, as an example of data-directed modelling and the insights that can be gained from this, (iv) we fit a redundancy model to mortality patterns observed by Mair et al. (2003; Science 301: 1731-1733) in Drosophila that were subjected to dietary restriction and temperature manipulations. Mair et al. found that dietary restriction instantaneously reduced mortality rate without affecting aging, while temperature manipulations had more transient effects on mortality rate and did affect aging. We show that after adjusting model parameters the redundancy model describes both effects well, and a comparison of the parameter values yields a deeper insight in the mechanisms causing these contrasting effects. We see replacement of the redundancy model parameters by more detailed sub-models of these parameters as a next step in linking demographic patterns to underlying molecular mechanisms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Isotopic composition analysis and age dating of uranium samples by high resolution gamma ray spectrometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apostol, A. I.; Pantelica, A.; Sima, O.; Fugaru, V.

2016-09-01

Non-destructive methods were applied to determine the isotopic composition and the time elapsed since last chemical purification of nine uranium samples. The applied methods are based on measuring gamma and X radiations of uranium samples by high resolution low energy gamma spectrometric system with planar high purity germanium detector and low background gamma spectrometric system with coaxial high purity germanium detector. The ;Multigroup γ-ray Analysis Method for Uranium; (MGAU) code was used for the precise determination of samples' isotopic composition. The age of the samples was determined from the isotopic ratio 214Bi/234U. This ratio was calculated from the analyzed spectra of each uranium sample, using relative detection efficiency. Special attention is paid to the coincidence summing corrections that have to be taken into account when performing this type of analysis. In addition, an alternative approach for the age determination using full energy peak efficiencies obtained by Monte Carlo simulations with the GESPECOR code is described.

Emotional Experience Improves With Age: Evidence Based on Over 10 Years of Experience Sampling

PubMed Central

Carstensen, Laura L.; Turan, Bulent; Scheibe, Susanne; Ram, Nilam; Ersner-Hershfield, Hal; Samanez-Larkin, Gregory R.; Brooks, Kathryn P.; Nesselroade, John R.

2012-01-01

Recent evidence suggests that emotional well-being improves from early adulthood to old age. This study used experience-sampling to examine the developmental course of emotional experience in a representative sample of adults spanning early to very late adulthood. Participants (N = 184, Wave 1; N = 191, Wave 2; N = 178, Wave 3) reported their emotional states at five randomly selected times each day for a one week period. Using a measurement burst design, the one-week sampling procedure was repeated five and then ten years later. Cross-sectional and growth curve analyses indicate that aging is associated with more positive overall emotional well-being, with greater emotional stability and with more complexity (as evidenced by greater co-occurrence of positive and negative emotions). These findings remained robust after accounting for other variables that may be related to emotional experience (personality, verbal fluency, physical health, and demographic variables). Finally, emotional experience predicted mortality; controlling for age, sex, and ethnicity, individuals who experienced relatively more positive than negative emotions in everyday life were more likely to have survived over a 13 year period. Findings are discussed in the theoretical context of socioemotional selectivity theory. PMID:20973600

Differences in physical fitness and gross motor coordination in boys aged 6-12 years specializing in one versus sampling more than one sport.

PubMed

Fransen, Job; Pion, Johan; Vandendriessche, Joric; Vandorpe, Barbara; Vaeyens, Roel; Lenoir, Matthieu; Philippaerts, Renaat M

2012-01-01

The Developmental Model of Sports Participation proposes two pathways towards expertise in sports between 6 and 12 years of age: early specialization and early diversification. This study investigated the effect of sampling various sports and of spending many or few hours in sports on fitness and gross motor coordination. Altogether, 735 boys in three age groups (6-8, 8-10, and 10-12 years) were profiled using a fitness test battery. A computerized physical activity questionnaire was used to obtain data on sports participation. In the eldest group, (M)ANCOVA showed a positive effect of sampling various sports on strength, speed, endurance, and gross motor coordination (P < 0.05). A positive effect of many hours per week spent in sports was apparent in every age group. These data suggest an acute positive effect of many hours in sports and a latent positive effect of early sampling on fitness and gross motor coordination. Multiple comparisons revealed that boys aged 10-12 years, who spent many hours in various sports, performed better on standing broad jump (P < 0.05) and gross motor coordination (P < 0.05) than boys specializing in a single sport. Therefore, our results highlight the importance of spending many hours in sports and sampling various sports in the development of fitness and gross motor coordination.

Age model for a continuous, ca 250-ka Quaternary lacustrine record from Bear Lake, Utah-Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colman, Steven M.; Kaufman, D.S.; Bright, Jordon; Heil, C.; King, J.W.; Dean, W.E.; Rosenbaum, J.G.; Forester, R.M.; Bischoff, J.L.; Perkins, Marie; McGeehin, J.P.

2006-01-01

The Quaternary sediments sampled by continuous 120-m-long drill cores from Bear Lake (Utah-Idaho) comprise one of the longest lacustrine sequences recovered from an extant lake. The cores serve as a good case study for the construction of an age model for sequences that extend beyond the range of radiocarbon dating. From a variety of potential age indicators, we selected a combination of radiocarbon ages, one magnetic excursion (correlated to a standard sequence), and a single Uranium-series age to develop an initial data set. The reliability of the excursion and U-series data require consideration of their position with respect to sediments of inferred interglacial character, but not direct correlation with other paleoclimate records. Data omitted from the age model include amino acid age estimates, which have a large amount of scatter, and tephrochronology correlations, which have relatively large uncertainties. Because the initial data set was restricted to the upper half of the BL00-1 core, we inferred additional ages by direct correlation to the independently dated paleoclimate record from Devils Hole. We developed an age model for the entire core using statistical methods that consider both the uncertainties of the original data and that of the curve-fitting process, with a combination of our initial data set and the climate correlations as control points. This age model represents our best estimate of the chronology of deposition in Bear Lake. Because the age model contains assumptions about the correlation of Bear Lake to other climate records, the model cannot be used to address some paleoclimate questions, such as phase relationships with other areas.

[Active ageing and success: A brief history of conceptual models].

PubMed

Petretto, Donatella Rita; Pili, Roberto; Gaviano, Luca; Matos López, Cristina; Zuddas, Carlo

2016-01-01

The aim of this paper is to analyse and describe different conceptual models of successful ageing, active and healthy ageing developed in Europe and in America in the 20° century, starting from Rowe and Kahn's original model (1987, 1997). A narrative review was conducted on the literature on successful ageing. Our review included definition of successful ageing from European and American scholars. Models were found that aimed to describe indexes of active and healthy ageing, models devoted to describe processes involved in successful ageing, and additional views that emphasise subjective and objective perception of successful ageing. A description is also given of critiques on previous models and remedies according to Martin et al. (2014) and strategies for successful ageing according to Jeste and Depp (2014). The need is discussed for the enhancement of Rowe and Kahn's model and other models with a more inclusive, universal description of ageing, incorporating scientific evidence regarding active ageing. Copyright © 2015 SEGG. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

2014-01-01

New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

Attitudes Towards Seeking Psychological Help among a Sample of Turkish University Students: The Roles of Rumination and Internal Working Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turan, Numan; Erdur-Baker, Özgür

2014-01-01

The current study investigates how attitudes towards seeking psychological help relate to internal working models of attachment (self-model and other-model) and ruminative tendencies. The study includes 589 Turkish university students (278 females, 308 males and 3 unknown) by implementing a convenient sampling procedure. The average age of the…

Aging Research Using Mouse Models

PubMed Central

Ackert-Bicknell, Cheryl L.; Anderson, Laura; Sheehan, Susan; Hill, Warren G.; Chang, Bo; Churchill, Gary A.; Chesler, Elissa J.; Korstanje, Ron; Peters, Luanne L.

2015-01-01

Despite the dramatic increase in human lifespan over the past century, there remains pronounced variability in “health-span”, or the period of time in which one is generally healthy and free of disease. Much of the variability in health-span and lifespan is thought to be genetic in origin. Understanding the genetic mechanisms of aging and identifying ways to boost longevity is a primary goal in aging research. Here, we describe a pipeline of phenotypic assays for assessing mouse models of aging. This pipeline includes behavior/cognition testing, body composition analysis, and tests of kidney function, hematopoiesis, immune function and physical parameters. We also describe study design methods for assessing lifespan and health-span, and other important considerations when conducting aging research in the laboratory mouse. The tools and assays provided can assist researchers with understanding the correlative relationships between age-associated phenotypes and, ultimately, the role of specific genes in the aging process. PMID:26069080

[Intima-media thickness in a middle-old age sample of the Spanish general population].

PubMed

Calmarza, Pilar; Trejo, José María; Lapresta, Carlos; López, Pilar

2015-01-01

To ascertain reference values of carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) in a middle and old-aged sample of the Spanish general population and to establish the 75(th) percentile above which it is necessary to control more strictly other cardiovascular risk factors. To determine cIMT values and the number of carotid plaques in age and sex subgroups, and whether there are differences between them. Lipids, apolipoproteins, number of carotid atherosclerotic plaques if any, and cIMT of both common carotid arteries were determined in 171 individuals, representative of the adult general population of Burgos (Spain). The median age of the patients was 63 years (interquartile range = 20) and the 75th percentile of carotid IMT was 0,88 mm and 0,81 mm in men and women, respectively. This study shows that the values of cIMT median increase with age and are higher in men than in women in all age groups, except in individuals over 74 years where cIMT median values are similar. The presence or absence of atherosclerotic plaques was not statistically different between men and women at different ages. This population study shows the reference values of cIMT in a middle and old-aged sample of the Spanish population and shows that age, male gender, systolic blood pressure (SBP) and personal history of coronary heart disease are the main determinants of increased cIMT. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Arteriosclerosis. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Tissue Sampling Guides for Porcine Biomedical Models.

PubMed

Albl, Barbara; Haesner, Serena; Braun-Reichhart, Christina; Streckel, Elisabeth; Renner, Simone; Seeliger, Frank; Wolf, Eckhard; Wanke, Rüdiger; Blutke, Andreas

2016-04-01

This article provides guidelines for organ and tissue sampling adapted to porcine animal models in translational medical research. Detailed protocols for the determination of sampling locations and numbers as well as recommendations on the orientation, size, and trimming direction of samples from ∼50 different porcine organs and tissues are provided in the Supplementary Material. The proposed sampling protocols include the generation of samples suitable for subsequent qualitative and quantitative analyses, including cryohistology, paraffin, and plastic histology; immunohistochemistry;in situhybridization; electron microscopy; and quantitative stereology as well as molecular analyses of DNA, RNA, proteins, metabolites, and electrolytes. With regard to the planned extent of sampling efforts, time, and personnel expenses, and dependent upon the scheduled analyses, different protocols are provided. These protocols are adjusted for (I) routine screenings, as used in general toxicity studies or in analyses of gene expression patterns or histopathological organ alterations, (II) advanced analyses of single organs/tissues, and (III) large-scale sampling procedures to be applied in biobank projects. Providing a robust reference for studies of porcine models, the described protocols will ensure the efficiency of sampling, the systematic recovery of high-quality samples representing the entire organ or tissue as well as the intra-/interstudy comparability and reproducibility of results. © The Author(s) 2016.

On incomplete sampling under birth-death models and connections to the sampling-based coalescent.

PubMed

Stadler, Tanja

2009-11-07

The constant rate birth-death process is used as a stochastic model for many biological systems, for example phylogenies or disease transmission. As the biological data are usually not fully available, it is crucial to understand the effect of incomplete sampling. In this paper, we analyze the constant rate birth-death process with incomplete sampling. We derive the density of the bifurcation events for trees on n leaves which evolved under this birth-death-sampling process. This density is used for calculating prior distributions in Bayesian inference programs and for efficiently simulating trees. We show that the birth-death-sampling process can be interpreted as a birth-death process with reduced rates and complete sampling. This shows that joint inference of birth rate, death rate and sampling probability is not possible. The birth-death-sampling process is compared to the sampling-based population genetics model, the coalescent. It is shown that despite many similarities between these two models, the distribution of bifurcation times remains different even in the case of very large population sizes. We illustrate these findings on an Hepatitis C virus dataset from Egypt. We show that the transmission times estimates are significantly different-the widely used Gamma statistic even changes its sign from negative to positive when switching from the coalescent to the birth-death process.

Relationship between sweat chloride, sodium, and age in clinically obtained samples.

PubMed

Traeger, Nadav; Shi, Qiuhu; Dozor, Allen J

2014-01-01

The relationship between sweat electrolytes and age is uncertain, as is the value of measuring sodium or the chloride:sodium ratio. 13,785 sweat tests performed over 23 years at one center through the Macroduct collection in clinically obtained samples were analyzed. Sweat chloride tended to decrease over the first year of life, slowly increase until the fourth decade, then either level off or slightly decrease. In children, sweat sodium overlapped between those with positive and negative sweat tests, but not in adults. If the sweat test was positive, there was a higher likelihood of having a chloride:sodium ratio >1, but most subjects with a ratio >1 did not have CF. Sweat chloride and sodium vary with age. Measurement of sweat sodium did not add discriminatory value. The proportion of subjects with a chloride:sodium ratio >1, with or without CF, varied greatly between age ranges. © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of European Cystic Fibrosis Society. All rights reserved.

Sexual Quality of Life and Aging: A Prospective Study of a Nationally Representative Sample

PubMed Central

Forbes, Miriam K.; Eaton, Nicholas R.; Krueger, Robert F.

2016-01-01

Unlike other life domains, sexual quality of life (SQoL) has a negative relationship with age. This study disentangled the effect of age in this relationship from confounding sociocultural influences (e.g., the period of time in which data were collected, and cohort differences), and aimed to understand the roles of other sexual domains (i.e., frequency, perceived control, thought and effort invested in sex, and number of sexual partners). We analyzed data from the longitudinal Midlife in the United States study (n = 6,278; age range 20–93), which were collected between 1995 and 2013. Repeated measures linear mixed-effects models showed that age was the most robust time-related predictor of declining SQoL. However, after the sexual domains were included in the model, age had a positive relationship with SQoL, and older adults’ SQoL was differentially influenced by the quality—not quantity—of sex. When partnership characteristics were included in the model, age was no longer related to SQoL. These findings suggest that aging may be associated with the acquisition of skills and strategies that can buffer age-related declines in SQoL, particularly in the context of a positive relationship. We summarize these findings as sexual wisdom. PMID:27798838

Sexual Quality of Life and Aging: A Prospective Study of a Nationally Representative Sample.

PubMed

Forbes, Miriam K; Eaton, Nicholas R; Krueger, Robert F

2017-02-01

Unlike other life domains, sexual quality of life (SQoL) has a negative relationship with age. This study disentangled the effect of age in this relationship from confounding sociocultural influences (e.g., the period of time in which data were collected, and cohort differences) and aimed to understand the roles of other sexual domains (i.e., frequency, perceived control, thought and effort invested in sex, and number of sexual partners). We analyzed data from the longitudinal Midlife in the United States study (n = 6,278; age range 20-93), which were collected between 1995 and 2013. Repeated measures linear mixed-effects models showed that age was the most robust time-related predictor of declining SQoL. However, after the sexual domains were included in the model, age had a positive relationship with SQoL and older adults' SQoL was differentially influenced by the quality-not quantity-of sex. When partnership characteristics were included in the model, age was no longer related to SQoL. These findings suggest that aging may be associated with the acquisition of skills and strategies that can buffer age-related declines in SQoL, particularly in the context of a positive relationship. We summarize these findings as sexual wisdom.

The interaction of birth order and parental age on sexual orientation: an examination in two samples.

PubMed

Bogaert, Anthony F; Cairney, John

2004-01-01

A birth order and sexual orientation relationship has been demonstrated numerous times in men, but a related variable, parental age (i.e. age of parents when the participant was born), has been less studied and has demonstrated contradictory results. In this research, the relations among birth order, parental age and sexual orientation were examined in a national probability sample of the US (Kessler, 1994; Kessler et al., 1994) and in a Canadian sample of homosexual and heterosexual men closely matched on demographic characteristics (Blanchard & Bogaert, 1996a). In both studies, an interaction between birth order and parental age was observed in men, such that there was positive association between number of older siblings and the likelihood of homosexuality, but this association weakened with increasing parental age. No significant effects were observed for women. The results are discussed in relation to recent theories of the birth order/sexual orientation relationship.

Aging Well on the Autism Spectrum: An Examination of the Dominant Model of Successful Aging.

PubMed

Hwang, Ye In; Foley, Kitty-Rose; Trollor, Julian N

2018-05-02

There is a gap in our knowledge of aging with autism. The present study examined the applicability of the popular gerontology concept of "aging well" to autistic adults. Using survey data, a model of "aging well" was operationalised and applied to 92 autistic adults and 60 controls. A very small proportion (3.3%) of autistic adults were found to be aging well. Significantly less autistic adults were "maintaining physical and cognitive functioning" and "actively engaging with life" in comparison to controls. Whilst important differences in health and functioning status were found, the current dominant model of "aging well" is limited for examining autistic individuals. Suggested adjustments include development of a broader, more flexible and strengths -based model.

Modeling Active Aging and Explicit Memory: An Empirical Study.

PubMed

Ponce de León, Laura Ponce; Lévy, Jean Pierre; Fernández, Tomás; Ballesteros, Soledad

2015-08-01

The rapid growth of the population of older adults and their concomitant psychological status and health needs have captured the attention of researchers and health professionals. To help fill the void of literature available to social workers interested in mental health promotion and aging, the authors provide a model for active aging that uses psychosocial variables. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the relationships among the latent variables of the state of explicit memory, the perception of social resources, depression, and the perception of quality of life in a sample of 184 older adults. The results suggest that explicit memory is not a direct indicator of the perception of quality of life, but it could be considered an indirect indicator as it is positively correlated with perception of social resources and negatively correlated with depression. These last two variables influenced the perception of quality of life directly, the former positively and the latter negatively. The main outcome suggests that the perception of social support improves explicit memory and quality of life and reduces depression in active older adults. The findings also suggest that gerontological professionals should design memory training programs, improve available social resources, and offer environments with opportunities to exercise memory.

An age-specific biokinetic model for iodine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leggett, Richard Wayne

This study reviews age-specific biokinetic data for iodine in humans and extends to pre-adult ages the baseline parameter values of the author’s previously published model for systemic iodine in adult humans. Compared with the ICRP’s current age-specific model for iodine introduced in Publication 56 (1989), the present model provides a more detailed description of the behavior of iodine in the human body; predicts greater cumulative (integrated) activity in the thyroid for short-lived isotopes of iodine; predicts similar cumulative activity in the thyroid for isotopes with half-time greater than a few hours; and, for most iodine isotopes, predicts much greater cumulativemore » activity in salivary glands, stomach wall, liver, and kidneys.« less

An age-specific biokinetic model for iodine

DOE PAGES

Leggett, Richard Wayne

2017-10-26

This study reviews age-specific biokinetic data for iodine in humans and extends to pre-adult ages the baseline parameter values of the author’s previously published model for systemic iodine in adult humans. Compared with the ICRP’s current age-specific model for iodine introduced in Publication 56 (1989), the present model provides a more detailed description of the behavior of iodine in the human body; predicts greater cumulative (integrated) activity in the thyroid for short-lived isotopes of iodine; predicts similar cumulative activity in the thyroid for isotopes with half-time greater than a few hours; and, for most iodine isotopes, predicts much greater cumulativemore » activity in salivary glands, stomach wall, liver, and kidneys.« less

Creating Composite Age Groups to Smooth Percentile Rank Distributions of Small Samples

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lopez, Francesca; Olson, Amy; Bansal, Naveen

2011-01-01

Individually administered tests are often normed on small samples, a process that may result in irregularities within and across various age or grade distributions. Test users often smooth distributions guided by Thurstone assumptions (normality and linearity) to result in norms that adhere to assumptions made about how the data should look. Test…

A Model of Spirituality for Ageing Muslims.

PubMed

Ahmad, Mahjabeen; Khan, Shamsul

2016-06-01

Spirituality's influence on general well-being and its association with healthy ageing has been studied extensively. However, a different perspective has to be brought in when dealing with spirituality issues of ageing Muslims. Central to this perspective is the intertwining of religion and spirituality in Islam. This article will contribute to the understanding of the nature of Islamic spirituality and its immense importance in the life of a practicing ageing Muslim. Consequently, it will help care providers to include appropriate spiritual care in the care repertoire of a Muslim care recipient. It is assumed that the framework for a model of spirituality based on Islamic religious beliefs would help contextualise the relationship between spirituality and ageing Muslims. Not only challenges, but also the opportunities that old age provides for charting the spiritual journey have underpinned this model.

Modeling and measuring extravascular hemoglobin: aging contusions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lines, Collin; Kim, Oleg; Duffy, Susan; Alber, Mark; Crawford, Gregory P.

2011-07-01

Medical expertise is frequently elicited to aid in determining the age and the cause of the trauma or injury. Child protection and law enforcement frequently rely on the physical assessment of the trauma which involves delineating intentional from unintentional types of trauma. Recent studies have shown that current methods to assess the age of traumatic injuries are highly inaccurate and do not give reasonable predictions. Hemoglobin is one of the strongest chromophores in human tissues. Transport of hemoglobin and its breakdown products in tissue determines the spectrophotometric characteristics of the skin and its variations in time. Therefore, measurements of diffuse reflective spectra of the skin allow noninvasive screening. This paper reviews potential transmission and diffusive reflection spectroscopy based techniques and predictive and quantitative modeling methods assisting in efficient retrieval of the age of extravascular contusions. This paper then presents a novel Monte Carlo technique for 3D photon tracking and blood transport model. In future studies, clinically obtained spectra will be used to validate the model as well as fine-tune coefficients for absorption. It is the goal of this study to develop a model that would allow a non-invasive, accurate determination of the age of a bruise.

Stem Cell Models: A Guide to Understand and Mitigate Aging?

PubMed

Brunauer, Regina; Alavez, Silvestre; Kennedy, Brian K

2017-01-01

Aging is studied either on a systemic level using life span and health span of animal models, or on the cellular level using replicative life span of yeast or mammalian cells. While useful in identifying general and conserved pathways of aging, both approaches provide only limited information about cell-type specific causes and mechanisms of aging. Stem cells are the regenerative units of multicellular life, and stem cell aging might be a major cause for organismal aging. Using the examples of hematopoietic stem cell aging and human pluripotent stem cell models, we propose that stem cell models of aging are valuable for studying tissue-specific causes and mechanisms of aging and can provide unique insights into the mammalian aging process that may be inaccessible in simple model organisms. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

An Improved Nested Sampling Algorithm for Model Selection and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, X.; Ye, M.; Wu, J.; WANG, D.

2017-12-01

Multimodel strategy is a general approach for treating model structure uncertainty in recent researches. The unknown groundwater system is represented by several plausible conceptual models. Each alternative conceptual model is attached with a weight which represents the possibility of this model. In Bayesian framework, the posterior model weight is computed as the product of model prior weight and marginal likelihood (or termed as model evidence). As a result, estimating marginal likelihoods is crucial for reliable model selection and assessment in multimodel analysis. Nested sampling estimator (NSE) is a new proposed algorithm for marginal likelihood estimation. The implementation of NSE comprises searching the parameters' space from low likelihood area to high likelihood area gradually, and this evolution is finished iteratively via local sampling procedure. Thus, the efficiency of NSE is dominated by the strength of local sampling procedure. Currently, Metropolis-Hasting (M-H) algorithm and its variants are often used for local sampling in NSE. However, M-H is not an efficient sampling algorithm for high-dimensional or complex likelihood function. For improving the performance of NSE, it could be feasible to integrate more efficient and elaborated sampling algorithm - DREAMzs into the local sampling. In addition, in order to overcome the computation burden problem of large quantity of repeating model executions in marginal likelihood estimation, an adaptive sparse grid stochastic collocation method is used to build the surrogates for original groundwater model.

Creating Better School-Age Care Jobs: Model Work Standards.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haack, Peggy

Built on the premise that good school-age care jobs are the cornerstone of high-quality services for school-age youth and their families, this guide presents model work standards for school-age care providers. The guide begins with a description of the strengths and challenges of the school-age care profession. The model work standards are…

Travelling Wave Solutions in Multigroup Age-Structured Epidemic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ducrot, Arnaut; Magal, Pierre; Ruan, Shigui

2010-01-01

Age-structured epidemic models have been used to describe either the age of individuals or the age of infection of certain diseases and to determine how these characteristics affect the outcomes and consequences of epidemiological processes. Most results on age-structured epidemic models focus on the existence, uniqueness, and convergence to disease equilibria of solutions. In this paper we investigate the existence of travelling wave solutions in a deterministic age-structured model describing the circulation of a disease within a population of multigroups. Individuals of each group are able to move with a random walk which is modelled by the classical Fickian diffusion and are classified into two subclasses, susceptible and infective. A susceptible individual in a given group can be crisscross infected by direct contact with infective individuals of possibly any group. This process of transmission can depend upon the age of the disease of infected individuals. The goal of this paper is to provide sufficient conditions that ensure the existence of travelling wave solutions for the age-structured epidemic model. The case of two population groups is numerically investigated which applies to the crisscross transmission of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and some sexual transmission diseases.

A sampling model of social judgment.

PubMed

Galesic, Mirta; Olsson, Henrik; Rieskamp, Jörg

2018-04-01

Studies of social judgments have demonstrated a number of diverse phenomena that were so far difficult to explain within a single theoretical framework. Prominent examples are false consensus and false uniqueness, as well as self-enhancement and self-depreciation. Here we show that these seemingly complex phenomena can be a product of an interplay between basic cognitive processes and the structure of social and task environments. We propose and test a new process model of social judgment, the social sampling model (SSM), which provides a parsimonious quantitative account of different types of social judgments. In the SSM, judgments about characteristics of broader social environments are based on sampling of social instances from memory, where instances receive activation if they belong to a target reference class and have a particular characteristic. These sampling processes interact with the properties of social and task environments, including homophily, shapes of frequency distributions, and question formats. For example, in line with the model's predictions we found that whether false consensus or false uniqueness will occur depends on the level of homophily in people's social circles and on the way questions are asked. The model also explains some previously unaccounted-for patterns of self-enhancement and self-depreciation. People seem to be well informed about many characteristics of their immediate social circles, which in turn influence how they evaluate broader social environments and their position within them. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Asteroid age distributions determined by space weathering and collisional evolution models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willman, Mark; Jedicke, Robert

2011-01-01

We provide evidence of consistency between the dynamical evolution of main belt asteroids and their color evolution due to space weathering. The dynamical age of an asteroid's surface (Bottke, W.F., Durda, D.D., Nesvorný, D., Jedicke, R., Morbidelli, A., Vokrouhlický, D., Levison, H. [2005]. Icarus 175 (1), 111-140; Nesvorný, D., Jedicke, R., Whiteley, R.J., Ivezić, Ž. [2005]. Icarus 173, 132-152) is the time since its last catastrophic disruption event which is a function of the object's diameter. The age of an S-complex asteroid's surface may also be determined from its color using a space weathering model (e.g. Willman, M., Jedicke, R., Moskovitz, N., Nesvorný, D., Vokrouhlický, D., Mothé-Diniz, T. [2010]. Icarus 208, 758-772; Jedicke, R., Nesvorný, D., Whiteley, R.J., Ivezić, Ž., Jurić, M. [2004]. Nature 429, 275-277; Willman, M., Jedicke, R., Nesvorny, D., Moskovitz, N., Ivezić, Ž., Fevig, R. [2008]. Icarus 195, 663-673. We used a sample of 95 S-complex asteroids from SMASS and obtained their absolute magnitudes and u, g, r, i, z filter magnitudes from SDSS. The absolute magnitudes yield a size-derived age distribution. The u, g, r, i, z filter magnitudes lead to the principal component color which yields a color-derived age distribution by inverting our color-age relationship, an enhanced version of the 'dual τ' space weathering model of Willman et al. (2010). We fit the size-age distribution to the enhanced dual τ model and found characteristic weathering and gardening times of τw = 2050 ± 80 Myr and τg=4400-500+700Myr respectively. The fit also suggests an initial principal component color of -0.05 ± 0.01 for fresh asteroid surface with a maximum possible change of the probable color due to weathering of Δ PC = 1.34 ± 0.04. Our predicted color of fresh asteroid surface matches the color of fresh ordinary chondritic surface of PC1 = 0.17 ± 0.39.

The Influence of Sampling Density on Bayesian Age-Depth Models and Paleoclimatic Reconstructions - Lessons Learned from Lake Titicaca - Bolivia/Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salenbien, W.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Guedron, S.

2014-12-01

Lake Titicaca is one of the most important archives of paleoclimate in tropical South America, and prior studies have elucidated patterns of climate variation at varied temporal scales over the past 0.5 Ma. Yet, slow sediment accumulation rates in the main deeper basin of the lake have precluded analysis of the lake's most recent history at high resolution. To obtain a paleoclimate record of the last few millennia at multi-decadal resolution, we obtained five short cores, ranging from 139 to 181 cm in length, from the shallower Wiñaymarka sub-basin of of Lake Titicaca, where sedimentation rates are higher than in the lake's main basin. Selected cores have been analyzed for their geochemical signature by scanning XRF, diatom stratigraphy, sedimentology, and for 14C age dating. A total of 72 samples were 14C-dated using a Gas Ion Source automated high-throughput method for carbonate samples (mainly Littoridina sp. and Taphius montanus gastropod shells) at NOSAMS (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute) with an analytical precision higher than 2%. The method has lower analytical precision compared with traditional AMS radiocarbon dating, but the lower cost enables analysis of a larger number of samples, and the error associated with the lower precision is relatively small for younger samples (< ~8,000 years). A 172-cm-long core was divided into centimeter long sections, and 47 14C dates were obtained from 1-cm intervals, averaging one date every 3-4 cm. The other cores were radiocarbon dated with a sparser sampling density that focused on visual unconformities and shell beds. The high-resolution radiocarbon analysis reveals complex sedimentation patterns in visually continuous sections, with abundant indicators of bioturbated or reworked sediments and periods of very rapid sediment accumulation. These features are not evident in the sparser sampling strategy but have significant implications for reconstructing past lake level and paleoclimatic history.

Impact of spatial variability and sampling design on model performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrape, Charlotte; Schneider, Anne-Kathrin; Schröder, Boris; van Schaik, Loes

2017-04-01

Many environmental physical and chemical parameters as well as species distributions display a spatial variability at different scales. In case measurements are very costly in labour time or money a choice has to be made between a high sampling resolution at small scales and a low spatial cover of the study area or a lower sampling resolution at the small scales resulting in local data uncertainties with a better spatial cover of the whole area. This dilemma is often faced in the design of field sampling campaigns for large scale studies. When the gathered field data are subsequently used for modelling purposes the choice of sampling design and resulting data quality influence the model performance criteria. We studied this influence with a virtual model study based on a large dataset of field information on spatial variation of earthworms at different scales. Therefore we built a virtual map of anecic earthworm distributions over the Weiherbach catchment (Baden-Württemberg in Germany). First of all the field scale abundance of earthworms was estimated using a catchment scale model based on 65 field measurements. Subsequently the high small scale variability was added using semi-variograms, based on five fields with a total of 430 measurements divided in a spatially nested sampling design over these fields, to estimate the nugget, range and standard deviation of measurements within the fields. With the produced maps, we performed virtual samplings of one up to 50 random points per field. We then used these data to rebuild the catchment scale models of anecic earthworm abundance with the same model parameters as in the work by Palm et al. (2013). The results of the models show clearly that a large part of the non-explained deviance of the models is due to the very high small scale variability in earthworm abundance: the models based on single virtual sampling points on average obtain an explained deviance of 0.20 and a correlation coefficient of 0.64. With

Network Model-Assisted Inference from Respondent-Driven Sampling Data.

PubMed

Gile, Krista J; Handcock, Mark S

2015-06-01

Respondent-Driven Sampling is a widely-used method for sampling hard-to-reach human populations by link-tracing over their social networks. Inference from such data requires specialized techniques because the sampling process is both partially beyond the control of the researcher, and partially implicitly defined. Therefore, it is not generally possible to directly compute the sampling weights for traditional design-based inference, and likelihood inference requires modeling the complex sampling process. As an alternative, we introduce a model-assisted approach, resulting in a design-based estimator leveraging a working network model. We derive a new class of estimators for population means and a corresponding bootstrap standard error estimator. We demonstrate improved performance compared to existing estimators, including adjustment for an initial convenience sample. We also apply the method and an extension to the estimation of HIV prevalence in a high-risk population.

Psychosocial working conditions and exhaustion in a working population sample of Swedish middle-aged men and women.

PubMed

Lindeberg, Sara I; Rosvall, Maria; Choi, Bongkyoo; Canivet, Catarina; Isacsson, Sven-Olof; Karasek, Robert; Ostergren, Per-Olof

2011-04-01

Exhaustion is a concept of interest for both occupational health research and stress-disease theory research. The aim of the present study was to explore associations between chronic stressors, in terms of psychosocial working conditions, and exhaustion in a Swedish middle-aged population sample. A vocationally active population sample of the Malmö Shoulder and Neck Study cohort, comprising 2555 men and 2466 women between 45 and 64 years of age, was used. Psychosocial working conditions, assessed by means of the demand-control-support model, were measured longitudinally with a 1-year interval. Exhaustion was assessed by the SF-36 vitality scale and measured at follow-up, yielding a cross-sectional study design. Exhaustion was twice as common in women as in men. High psychological job demands, low job control and low job support were independently associated with exhaustion in both men and women. These associations remained after controlling for a variety of potential confounders and mediators, including socio-demographic factors, lifestyle factors, musculoskeletal pain, disease, other work-related factors (including physical workload) and non-work-related factors. High demands in combination with low control (job strain), and job strain combined with low job support (iso-strain), increased the risk for exhaustion. Psychosocial working conditions seem to contribute to exhaustion in middle-aged men and women. Future research should include exploration of exhaustion as a possible mediator between work stress and disease, as well as exploration of other chronic stressors, including non-work-related stressors, regarding their effects on exhaustion in men and women.

Aging models of acute seizures and epilepsy.

PubMed

Kelly, Kevin M

2010-01-01

Aged animals have been used by researchers to better understand the differences between the young and the aged brain and how these differences may provide insight into the mechanisms of acute seizures and epilepsy in the elderly. To date, there have been relatively few studies dedicated to the modeling of acute seizures and epilepsy in aged, healthy animals. Inherent challenges to this area of research include the costs associated with the purchase and maintenance of older animals and, at times, the unexpected and potentially confounding comorbidities associated with aging. However, recent studies using a variety of in vivo and in vitro models of acute seizures and epilepsy in mice and rats have built upon early investigations in the field, all of which has provided an expanded vision of seizure generation and epileptogenesis in the aged brain. Results of these studies could potentially translate to new and tailored interventional approaches that limit or prevent the development of epilepsy in the elderly.

Genetic effects on information processing speed are moderated by age--converging results from three samples.

PubMed

Ising, M; Mather, K A; Zimmermann, P; Brückl, T; Höhne, N; Heck, A; Schenk, L A; Rujescu, D; Armstrong, N J; Sachdev, P S; Reppermund, S

2014-06-01

Information processing is a cognitive trait forming the basis of complex abilities like executive function. The Trail Making Test (TMT) is a well-established test of information processing with moderate to high heritability. Age of the individual also plays an important role. A number of genetic association studies with the TMT have been performed, which, however, did not consider age as a moderating factor. We report the results of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) on age-independent and age-dependent TMT performance in two population-representative community samples (Munich Antidepressant Response Signature, MARS: N1 = 540; Ludwig Maximilians University, LMU: N2 = 350). Age-dependent genome-wide findings were then evaluated in a third sample of healthy elderly subjects (Sydney Memory and Ageing Study, Sydney MAS: N3 = 448). While a meta-analysis on the GWAS findings did not reveal age-independent TMT associations withstanding correction for multiple testing, we found a genome-wide significant age-moderated effect between variants in the DSG1 gene region and TMT-A performance predominantly reflecting visual processing speed (rs2199301, P(meta-analysis) = 1.3 × 10(-7)). The direction of the interaction suggests for the minor allele a beneficial effect in younger adults turning into a detrimental effect in older adults. The detrimental effect of the missense single nucleotide polymorphism rs1426310 within the same DSG1 gene region could be replicated in Sydney MAS participants aged 70-79, but not in those aged 80 years and older, presumably a result of survivor bias. Our findings demonstrate opposing effects of DSG1 variants on information processing speed depending on age, which might be related to the complex processes that DSG1 is involved with, including cell adhesion and apoptosis. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and International Behavioural and Neural Genetics Society.

Latent trajectories of internalizing symptoms from preschool to school age: A multi-informant study in a high-risk sample.

PubMed

Klein, Annette M; Schlesier-Michel, Andrea; Otto, Yvonne; White, Lars O; Andreas, Anna; Sierau, Susan; Bergmann, Sarah; Perren, Sonja; von Klitzing, Kai

2018-04-29

Recent proposals suggest early adversity sets in motion particularly chronic and neurobiologically distinct trajectories of internalizing symptoms. However, few prospective studies in high-risk samples delineate distinct trajectories of internalizing symptoms from preschool age onward. We examined trajectories in a high-risk cohort, oversampled for internalizing symptoms, several preschool risk/maintenance factors, and school-age outcomes. Parents of 325 children completed the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire on up to four waves of data collection from preschool (3-5 years) to school age (8-9 years) and Preschool Age Psychiatric Assessment interviews at both ages. Multi-informant data were collected on risk factors and symptoms. Growth mixture modelling identified four trajectory classes of internalizing symptoms with stable low, rising low-to-moderate, stable moderate, and stable high symptoms. Children in the stable high symptom trajectory manifested clinically relevant internalizing symptoms, mainly diagnosed with anxiety disorders/depression at preschool and school age. Trajectories differed regarding loss/separation experience, maltreatment, maternal psychopathology, temperament, and stress-hormone regulation with loss/separation, temperament, maternal psychopathology, and stress-hormone regulation (trend) significantly contributing to explained variance. At school age, trajectories continued to differ on symptoms, disorders, and impairment. Our study is among the first to show that severe early adversity may trigger a chronic and neurobiologically distinct internalizing trajectory from preschool age onward.

Network Model-Assisted Inference from Respondent-Driven Sampling Data

PubMed Central

Gile, Krista J.; Handcock, Mark S.

2015-01-01

Summary Respondent-Driven Sampling is a widely-used method for sampling hard-to-reach human populations by link-tracing over their social networks. Inference from such data requires specialized techniques because the sampling process is both partially beyond the control of the researcher, and partially implicitly defined. Therefore, it is not generally possible to directly compute the sampling weights for traditional design-based inference, and likelihood inference requires modeling the complex sampling process. As an alternative, we introduce a model-assisted approach, resulting in a design-based estimator leveraging a working network model. We derive a new class of estimators for population means and a corresponding bootstrap standard error estimator. We demonstrate improved performance compared to existing estimators, including adjustment for an initial convenience sample. We also apply the method and an extension to the estimation of HIV prevalence in a high-risk population. PMID:26640328

Assessing aging stereotypes: Personal stereotypes, self-stereotypes and self-perception of aging.

PubMed

Fernández-Ballesteros, Rocío; Olmos, Ricardo; Santacreu, Marta; Bustillos, Antonio; Schettini, Rocío; Huici, Carmen; Rivera, José M

2017-11-01

There is a broad semantic network of aging stereotypes; where different concepts and their measurement are confused: personal stereotypes, self-stereotypes and self-perception of aging. First, we analyze the translated version of the Image of Aging Scale (IAS) measurement model through exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, with two representative sub-samples of the Spanish population aged over eighteen (N = 1,105) and in a sample of gerontologists and geriatricians (N = 325). Second, in an effort to disentangle the theoretical relationships between personal stereotypes, self-stereotypes and self-perception of aging, both the IAS (with different instructions) and Lawton’s 5-item scale were administered to a representative sample of Spanish people over 50. Our results indicate that the Spanish version of the IAS has a similar psychometric structure to that proposed by the authors. Furthermore, the factorial structure (equal form and metric invariance) is replicated in both samples, but latent means and factor correlations were higher in the professional group. We discuss Levy’s theoretical assumptions about personal-stereotypes and the self-stereotype measured with IAS and their relationship to self-perception of ageing.

Investigating the Theoretical Structure of the DAS-II Core Battery at School Age Using Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dombrowski, Stefan C.; Golay, Philippe; McGill, Ryan J.; Canivez, Gary L.

2018-01-01

Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) was used to investigate the latent structure of the Differential Ability Scales-Second Edition core battery using the standardization sample normative data for ages 7-17. Results revealed plausibility of a three-factor model, consistent with publisher theory, expressed as either a higher-order (HO) or a…

Canadian government's framing of ageing at work and older workers: Echoing positive ageing models.

PubMed

Lagacé, Martine; Nahon-Serfaty, Isaac; Laplante, Joelle

2015-01-01

Public representations of ageing can influence how individuals perceive their own experience of ageing. Results of studies on the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)'s governmental messages on older workers suggest that they are mainly constructed around economic productivity and personal responsibility. The goal of this study is to examine how the Canadian government frames issues around ageing, work and older workers. Canada is facing a rapidly ageing workforce, hence the importance of examining how the government discusses ageing at work. A thematic content analysis was conducted on a total of 154 government web pages. Results revealed that predominant themes revolve around economic challenges resulting from an ageing workforce. Older workers are depicted as a key component for the (economic) management of an ageing workforce. More specifically, older workers who intend to continue working are highly valued in the government's messages which present them as productive citizens and role models for "ageing well". Canada's response to the challenges of an ageing workforce echoes the underlying standards of positive ageing models, which may generate, perhaps inadvertently, a new form of ageism by creating intra-and intergenerational divides in the workplace.

A Unimodal Model for Double Observer Distance Sampling Surveys.

PubMed

Becker, Earl F; Christ, Aaron M

2015-01-01

Distance sampling is a widely used method to estimate animal population size. Most distance sampling models utilize a monotonically decreasing detection function such as a half-normal. Recent advances in distance sampling modeling allow for the incorporation of covariates into the distance model, and the elimination of the assumption of perfect detection at some fixed distance (usually the transect line) with the use of double-observer models. The assumption of full observer independence in the double-observer model is problematic, but can be addressed by using the point independence assumption which assumes there is one distance, the apex of the detection function, where the 2 observers are assumed independent. Aerially collected distance sampling data can have a unimodal shape and have been successfully modeled with a gamma detection function. Covariates in gamma detection models cause the apex of detection to shift depending upon covariate levels, making this model incompatible with the point independence assumption when using double-observer data. This paper reports a unimodal detection model based on a two-piece normal distribution that allows covariates, has only one apex, and is consistent with the point independence assumption when double-observer data are utilized. An aerial line-transect survey of black bears in Alaska illustrate how this method can be applied.

Statistical analysis of biomechanical properties of the adult skull and age-related structural changes by sex in a Japanese forensic sample.

PubMed

Torimitsu, Suguru; Nishida, Yoshifumi; Takano, Tachio; Koizumi, Yoshinori; Makino, Yohsuke; Yajima, Daisuke; Hayakawa, Mutsumi; Inokuchi, Go; Motomura, Ayumi; Chiba, Fumiko; Otsuka, Katsura; Kobayashi, Kazuhiro; Odo, Yuriko; Iwase, Hirotaro

2014-01-01

The purpose of this research was to investigate the biomechanical properties of the adult human skull and the structural changes that occur with age in both sexes. The heads of 94 Japanese cadavers (54 male cadavers, 40 female cadavers) autopsied in our department were used in this research. A total of 376 cranial samples, four from each skull, were collected. Sample fracture load was measured by a bending test. A statistically significant negative correlation between the sample fracture load and cadaver age was found. This indicates that the stiffness of cranial bones in Japanese individuals decreases with age, and the risk of skull fracture thus probably increases with age. Prior to the bending test, the sample mass, the sample thickness, the ratio of the sample thickness to cadaver stature (ST/CS), and the sample density were measured and calculated. Significant negative correlations between cadaver age and sample thickness, ST/CS, and the sample density were observed only among the female samples. Computerized tomographic (CT) images of 358 cranial samples were available. The computed tomography value (CT value) of cancellous bone which refers to a quantitative scale for describing radiodensity, cancellous bone thickness and cortical bone thickness were measured and calculated. Significant negative correlation between cadaver age and the CT value or cortical bone thickness was observed only among the female samples. These findings suggest that the skull is substantially affected by decreased bone metabolism resulting from osteoporosis. Therefore, osteoporosis prevention and treatment may increase cranial stiffness and reinforce the skull structure, leading to a decrease in the risk of skull fractures. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Brief communication: the relation between standard error of the estimate and sample size of histomorphometric aging methods.

PubMed

Hennig, Cheryl; Cooper, David

2011-08-01

Histomorphometric aging methods report varying degrees of precision, measured through Standard Error of the Estimate (SEE). These techniques have been developed from variable samples sizes (n) and the impact of n on reported aging precision has not been rigorously examined in the anthropological literature. This brief communication explores the relation between n and SEE through a review of the literature (abstracts, articles, book chapters, theses, and dissertations), predictions based upon sampling theory and a simulation. Published SEE values for age prediction, derived from 40 studies, range from 1.51 to 16.48 years (mean 8.63; sd: 3.81 years). In general, these values are widely distributed for smaller samples and the distribution narrows as n increases--a pattern expected from sampling theory. For the two studies that have samples in excess of 200 individuals, the SEE values are very similar (10.08 and 11.10 years) with a mean of 10.59 years. Assuming this mean value is a 'true' characterization of the error at the population level, the 95% confidence intervals for SEE values from samples of 10, 50, and 150 individuals are on the order of ± 4.2, 1.7, and 1.0 years, respectively. While numerous sources of variation potentially affect the precision of different methods, the impact of sample size cannot be overlooked. The uncertainty associated with SEE values derived from smaller samples complicates the comparison of approaches based upon different methodology and/or skeletal elements. Meaningful comparisons require larger samples than have frequently been used and should ideally be based upon standardized samples. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

TOWARD PRECISE AGES FOR SINGLE STARS IN THE FIELD. GYROCHRONOLOGY CONSTRAINTS AT SEVERAL Gyr USING WIDE BINARIES. I. AGES FOR INITIAL SAMPLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chaname, Julio; Ramirez, Ivan

2012-02-10

We present a program designed to obtain age-rotation measurements of solar-type dwarfs to be used in the calibration of gyrochronology relations at ages of several Gyr. This is a region of parameter space crucial for the large-scale study of the Milky Way, and where the only constraint available today is that provided by the Sun. Our program takes advantage of a set of wide binaries selected so that one component is an evolved star and the other is a main-sequence star of FGK type. In this way, we obtain the age of the system from the evolved star, while themore » rotational properties of the main-sequence component provide the information relevant for gyrochronology regarding the spin-down of solar-type stars. By mining currently available catalogs of wide binaries, we assemble a sample of 37 pairs well positioned for our purposes: 19 with turnoff or subgiant primaries and 18 with white dwarf components. Using high-resolution optical spectroscopy, we measure precise stellar parameters for a subset of 15 of the pairs with turnoff/subgiant components and use these to derive isochronal ages for the corresponding systems. Ages for 16 of the 18 pairs with white dwarf components are taken from the literature. The ages of this initial sample of 31 wide binaries range from 1 to 9 Gyr, with precisions better than {approx}20% for almost half of these systems. When combined with measurements of the rotation period of their main-sequence components, these wide binary systems would potentially provide a similar number of points useful for the calibration of gyrochronology relations at very old ages.« less

Modelling antecedents of blood donation motivation among non-donors of varying age and education.

PubMed

Lemmens, K P H; Abraham, C; Ruiter, R A C; Veldhuizen, I J T; Dehing, C J G; Bos, A E R; Schaalma, H P

2009-02-01

Understanding blood donation motivation among non-donors is prerequisite to effective recruitment. Two studies explored the psychological antecedents of blood donation motivation and the generalisability of a model of donation motivation across groups differing in age and educational level. An older well-educated population and a younger less well-educated population were sampled. The studies assessed the role of altruism, fear of blood/needles and donation-specific cognitions including attitudes and normative beliefs derived from an extended theory of planned behaviour (TPB). Across both samples, results showed that affective attitude, subjective norm, descriptive norm, and moral norm were the most important correlates of blood donation intentions. Self-efficacy was more important among the younger less well-educated group. Altruism was related to donation motivation but only indirectly through moral norm. Similarly, fear of blood/needles only had an indirect effect on motivation through affective attitude and self-efficacy. Additional analyses with the combined data set found no age or education moderation effects, suggesting that this core model of donation-specific cognitions can be used to inform future practical interventions recruiting new blood donors in the general population.

Age-Of Dependent Mutation Rate and Weak Children in the Penna Model in Biological Ageing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berntsen, K. Nikolaj

We investigate the effect of an age-dependent mutation rate in the Penna model of ageing and then we observe that the high mortality for human babies can be reproduced by the model if one assumes babies to be weaker than adults.

Radiochronological Age of a Uranium Metal Sample from an Abandoned Facility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyers, L A; Williams, R W; Glover, S E

2012-03-16

A piece of scrap uranium metal bar buried in the dirt floor of an old, abandoned metal rolling mill was analyzed using multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy (MC-ICP-MS). The mill rolled uranium rods in the 1940s and 1950s. Samples of the contaminated dirt in which the bar was buried were also analyzed. The isotopic composition of uranium in the bar and dirt samples were both the same as natural uranium, though a few samples of dirt also contained recycled uranium; likely a result of contamination with other material rolled at the mill. The time elapsed since the uranium metalmore » bar was last purified can be determined by the in-growth of the isotope {sup 230}Th from the decay of {sup 234}U, assuming that only uranium isotopes were present in the bar after purification. The age of the metal bar was determined to be 61 years at the time of this analysis and corresponds to a purification date of July 1950 {+-} 1.5 years.« less

Profile and determinants of successful aging in the Ibadan Study of Ageing.

PubMed

Gureje, Oye; Oladeji, Bibilola D; Abiona, Taiwo; Chatterji, Somnath

2014-05-01

To determine the profile and determinants of successful aging in a developing country characterized by low life expectancy and where successful agers may represent a unique group. Community-based cohort study. Eight contiguous states in the Yoruba-speaking region of Nigeria. A multistage clustered sampling of households was used to select a representative sample of individuals (N = 2,149) aged 65 and older at baseline. Nine hundred thirty were successfully followed for an average of 64 months between August 2003 and December 2009. Lifestyle and behavioral factors were assessed at baseline. Successful aging, defined using each of three models (absence of chronic health conditions, functional independence, and satisfaction with life), was assessed at follow-up. Between 16% and 75% of respondents could be classified as successful agers using one of the three models while 7.5% could be so classified using a combination of all the models. Correlations between the three models were small, ranging from 0.08 to 0.15. Different features predicted their outcomes, suggesting that they represent relatively independent trajectories of aging. Whichever model was used, more men than women tended to be classified as aging successfully. Men who aged successfully, using a combination of all the three models, were more likely never to have smoked (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 4.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.55-14.46) and to report, at baseline, having contacts with friends (aOR = 4.2, 95% CI = 1.0-18.76) or participating in community activities (aOR = 16.0, 95% CI = 1.23-204.40). In women, there was a nonlinear trend for younger age at baseline to predict this outcome. Modifiable social and lifestyle factors predicted successful aging in this population, suggesting that health promotion targeting behavior change may lead to tangible benefits for health and well-being in old age. © 2014, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2014, The American Geriatrics Society.

Some analytical models to estimate maternal age at birth using age-specific fertility rates.

PubMed

Pandey, A; Suchindran, C M

1995-01-01

"A class of analytical models to study the distribution of maternal age at different births from the data on age-specific fertility rates has been presented. Deriving the distributions and means of maternal age at birth of any specific order, final parity and at next-to-last birth, we have extended the approach to estimate parity progression ratios and the ultimate parity distribution of women in the population.... We illustrate computations of various components of the model expressions with the current fertility experiences of the United States for 1970." excerpt

USING A COMMERCIAL TELEPHONE DIRECTORY TO IDENTIFY A POPULATION-BASED SAMPLE OF WOMEN OF REPRODUCTIVE AGE

EPA Science Inventory

Using a commercial telephone directory to identify a population-based sample of women of reproductive age
*DT Lobdell, GM Buck, JM Weiner, P Mendola (United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711)

In the United States, sampling women o...

Age and gender specific biokinetic model for strontium in humans

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shagina, N. B.; Tolstykh, E. I.; Degteva, M. O.

A biokinetic model for strontium in humans is necessary for quantification of internal doses due to strontium radioisotopes. The ICRP-recommended biokinetic model for strontium has limitation for use in a population study, because it is not gender specific and does not cover all age ranges. The extensive Techa River data set on 90Sr in humans (tens of thousands of measurements) is a unique source of data on long-term strontium retention for men and women of all ages at intake. These, as well as published data, were used for evaluation of age- and gender-specific parameters for a new compartment biokinetic modelmore » for strontium (Sr-AGe model). The Sr-AGe model has similar structure as the ICRP model for the alkaline earth elements. The following parameters were mainly reevaluated: gastro-intestinal absorption and parameters related to the processes of bone formation and resorption defining calcium and strontium transfers in skeletal compartments. The Sr-AGe model satisfactorily describes available data sets on strontium retention for different kinds of intake (dietary and intravenous) at different ages (0–80 years old) and demonstrates good agreement with data sets for different ethnic groups. The Sr-AGe model can be used for dose assessment in epidemiological studies of general population exposed to ingested strontium radioisotopes.« less

A Differential Item Functional Analysis by Age of Perceived Interpersonal Discrimination in a Multi-racial/ethnic Sample of Adults.

PubMed

Owens, Sherry; Kristjansson, Alfgeir L; Hunte, Haslyn E R

2015-11-05

We investigated whether individual items on the nine item William's Perceived Everyday Discrimination Scale (EDS) functioned differently by age (<45 vs ≥ 45) within five racial groups in the United States: Asians (n=2,017); Hispanics (n=2,688); Black Caribbeans (n=1,377); African Americans (n=3,434); and Whites (n=854). We used data from the 2001-2003 National Survey of American Lives and the 2001-2003 National Latino and Asian Studies. Multiple-indicator, multiple-cause models (MIMIC) were used to examine differential item functioning (DIF) on the EDS by age within each racial/ethnic group. Overall, Asian and Hispanic respondents reported less discrimination than Whites; on the other hand, African Americans and Black Caribbeans reported more discrimination than Whites. Regardless of race/ethnicity, the younger respondents (aged <45 years) reported less discrimination than the older respondents (aged ≥ 45 years). In terms of age by race/ethnicity, the results were mixed for 19 out of 45 tests of DIF (40%). No differences in item function were observed among Black Caribbeans. "Being called names or insulted" and others acting as "if they are afraid" of the respondents were the only two items that did not exhibit differential item functioning by age across all racial/ethnic groups. Overall, our findings suggest that the EDS scale should be used with caution in multi-age multi-racial/ethnic samples.

Location and age of foraminifer samples collected by Chevron Petroleum geologists in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brabb, Earl E.; Parker, John M.

2003-01-01

Most of the geologic maps published for parts of central California in the past century have been made without the benefit of ages from microfossils. The ages of Jurassic, Cretaceous and Tertiary rocks in the mostly poorly exposed and structurally complex sedimentary rocks represented in the Coast Ranges are critical in determining stratigraphic succession or lack of it, and in determining whether the juxtaposition of similar appearing but different age formations means that a fault is present. Since the 1940's, at least, oil company geologists have used microfossils to assist them in geologic mapping and in determining the environments of deposition of the sedimentary rocks containing them. This information had been so confidential that even the names of species were coded by some paleontologists to prevent disclosure. In the past 20 years, however, the attitude of petroleum companies about this information has changed, and many of the formerly confidential materials and reports are now available. We report here on an estimated 50,000 Chevron foraminifer samples from surface localities in more than 600 U.S. Geological Survey 7.5' quadrangles in California. Ages are provided for more than 27,000 of these samples which have been donated by Chevron, along with locality maps, paleontology reports, and other data, to the California Academy of Sciences. To our knowledge, this collection is the largest ever released to the public by a petroleum company for the West Coast. The information from the slides can be used to update geologic maps prepared without the benefit of microfossils, to study foraminifers of Jurassic, Cretaceous and Tertiary age collected from a variety of geologic environments, to analyze the depth and temperature of ocean water covering parts of California during these periods, and for solving nomenclature and other scientific problems.

A model-based 'varimax' sampling strategy for a heterogeneous population.

PubMed

Akram, Nuzhat A; Farooqi, Shakeel R

2014-01-01

Sampling strategies are planned to enhance the homogeneity of a sample, hence to minimize confounding errors. A sampling strategy was developed to minimize the variation within population groups. Karachi, the largest urban agglomeration in Pakistan, was used as a model population. Blood groups ABO and Rh factor were determined for 3000 unrelated individuals selected through simple random sampling. Among them five population groups, namely Balochi, Muhajir, Pathan, Punjabi and Sindhi, based on paternal ethnicity were identified. An index was designed to measure the proportion of admixture at parental and grandparental levels. Population models based on index score were proposed. For validation, 175 individuals selected through stratified random sampling were genotyped for the three STR loci CSF1PO, TPOX and TH01. ANOVA showed significant differences across the population groups for blood groups and STR loci distribution. Gene diversity was higher across the sub-population model than in the agglomerated population. At parental level gene diversities are significantly higher across No admixture models than Admixture models. At grandparental level the difference was not significant. A sub-population model with no admixture at parental level was justified for sampling the heterogeneous population of Karachi.

Exact sampling hardness of Ising spin models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fefferman, B.; Foss-Feig, M.; Gorshkov, A. V.

2017-09-01

We study the complexity of classically sampling from the output distribution of an Ising spin model, which can be implemented naturally in a variety of atomic, molecular, and optical systems. In particular, we construct a specific example of an Ising Hamiltonian that, after time evolution starting from a trivial initial state, produces a particular output configuration with probability very nearly proportional to the square of the permanent of a matrix with arbitrary integer entries. In a similar spirit to boson sampling, the ability to sample classically from the probability distribution induced by time evolution under this Hamiltonian would imply unlikely complexity theoretic consequences, suggesting that the dynamics of such a spin model cannot be efficiently simulated with a classical computer. Physical Ising spin systems capable of achieving problem-size instances (i.e., qubit numbers) large enough so that classical sampling of the output distribution is classically difficult in practice may be achievable in the near future. Unlike boson sampling, our current results only imply hardness of exact classical sampling, leaving open the important question of whether a much stronger approximate-sampling hardness result holds in this context. The latter is most likely necessary to enable a convincing experimental demonstration of quantum supremacy. As referenced in a recent paper [A. Bouland, L. Mancinska, and X. Zhang, in Proceedings of the 31st Conference on Computational Complexity (CCC 2016), Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (Schloss Dagstuhl-Leibniz-Zentrum für Informatik, Dagstuhl, 2016)], our result completes the sampling hardness classification of two-qubit commuting Hamiltonians.

Relationships between narrative language samples and norm-referenced test scores in language assessments of school-age children.

PubMed

Danahy Ebert, Kerry; Scott, Cheryl M

2014-10-01

Both narrative language samples and norm-referenced language tests can be important components of language assessment for school-age children. The present study explored the relationship between these 2 tools within a group of children referred for language assessment. The study is a retrospective analysis of clinical records from 73 school-age children. Participants had completed an oral narrative language sample and at least one norm-referenced language test. Correlations between microstructural language sample measures and norm-referenced test scores were compared for younger (6- to 8-year-old) and older (9- to 12-year-old) children. Contingency tables were constructed to compare the 2 types of tools, at 2 different cutpoints, in terms of which children were identified as having a language disorder. Correlations between narrative language sample measures and norm-referenced tests were stronger for the younger group than the older group. Within the younger group, the level of language assessed by each measure contributed to associations among measures. Contingency analyses revealed moderate overlap in the children identified by each tool, with agreement affected by the cutpoint used. Narrative language samples may complement norm-referenced tests well, but age combined with narrative task can be expected to influence the nature of the relationship.

Selection Experiments in the Penna Model for Biological Aging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medeiros, G.; Idiart, M. A.; de Almeida, R. M. C.

We consider the Penna model for biological aging to investigate correlations between early fertility and late life survival rates in populations at equilibrium. We consider inherited initial reproduction ages together with a reproduction cost translated in a probability that mother and offspring die at birth, depending on the mother age. For convenient sets of parameters, the equilibrated populations present genetic variability in what regards both genetically programmed death age and initial reproduction age. In the asexual Penna model, a negative correlation between early life fertility and late life survival rates naturally emerges in the stationary solutions. In the sexual Penna model, selection experiments are performed where individuals are sorted by initial reproduction age from the equilibrated populations and the separated populations are evolved independently. After a transient, a negative correlation between early fertility and late age survival rates also emerges in the sense that populations that start reproducing earlier present smaller average genetically programmed death age. These effects appear due to the age structure of populations in the steady state solution of the evolution equations. We claim that the same demographic effects may be playing an important role in selection experiments in the laboratory.

[Trajectories of aging in a sample of elderly people: a longitudinal study].

PubMed

Navarro-González, Elena; Calero, María Dolores; Becerra-Reina, Dolores

2015-01-01

The present study analyzes variables associated with different trajectories of aging, and the level of cognitive functioning in a sample of older adults. Although this work is part of a broader investigation where initially 141 people were assessed, this paper only discusses the cognitive functioning and cognitive development of 64 older people who have been followed up four years after the initial assessment, with a mean age of 83.84 years (age range 65 to 99 years). In the initial assessment all the participants were assessed with a psychological battery that included the MEC, the verbal fluency task FVS, a sustained attention task, a working memory test, a Quality of Life Questionnaire, a scale of dependency, and the AVLT-Learning Potential test. In the follow up assessment, participants have been assessed with the MEC, the verbal fluency task FVS, and the verbal memory test AVLT-PA. the results show relatively stable trajectories of aging and that the variables that better predict cognitive evolution of the elderly are working memory and post-test score in the AVLT-LP. Despite the time lapse between the two assessments and the age of the participants, older adults have remained relatively stable in their cognitive functioning, which in part contradicts the idea that--especially after 80 years--a general decline of cognitive functioning occurs in old age. Copyright © 2014 SEGG. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Cranium asymmetry in a modern Greek population sample of known age and sex.

PubMed

Chovalopoulou, Maria-Eleni; Papageorgopoulou, Christina; Bertsatos, Andreas

2017-05-01

The aim of this paper is to evaluate and quantify cranium asymmetry, sexual differences in the set of individual asymmetry scores, and the relationship between fluctuating asymmetry and age, in a modern Greek population sample. In addition, we test for the developmental origins of health and disease hypothesis by assessing the correlation between fluctuating asymmetry and cause of death. The study sample consisted of 173 crania of known sex and adult age (92 males, 81 females) belonging to individuals who lived in Greece during the twentieth century. The three-dimensional coordinates of 77 ectocranial landmarks were digitized using a Microscribe 3DX contact digitizer and landmark configurations were analyzed using the generalized least-squares Procrustes method. Regarding directional asymmetry, the results show that the human skull has a tendency for a left-side excess for the Greek population. No significant directional asymmetry differences between the sexes are found. The highest levels of fluctuating asymmetry for both sexes are located on the skull base. The levels of fluctuating asymmetry in all cranial regions appear higher for males than females. Nevertheless, these differences do not present any statistical significance between sexes. Additionally, there is no relationship between fluctuating asymmetry scores and age for both males and females. Finally, the results of this study could not confirm that early development has a significant impact on adult health outcomes.

The effects of temperature and diet on age grading and population age structure determination in Drosophila.

PubMed

Aw, Wen C; Ballard, J William O

2013-10-01

The age structure of natural population is of interest in physiological, life history and ecological studies but it is often difficult to determine. One methodological problem is that samples may need to be invasively sampled preventing subsequent taxonomic curation. A second problem is that it can be very expensive to accurately determine the age structure of given population because large sample sizes are often necessary. In this study, we test the effects of temperature (17 °C, 23 °C and 26 °C) and diet (standard cornmeal and low calorie diet) on the accuracy of the non-invasive, inexpensive and high throughput near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) technique to determine the age of Drosophila flies. Composite and simplified calibration models were developed for each sex. Independent sets for each temperature and diet treatments with flies not involved in calibration model were then used to validate the accuracy of the calibration models. The composite NIRS calibration model was generated by including flies reared under all temperatures and diets. This approach permits rapid age measurement and age structure determination in large population of flies as less than or equal to 9 days, or more than 9 days old with 85-97% and 64-99% accuracy, respectively. The simplified calibration models were generated by including flies reared at 23 °C on standard diet. Low accuracy rates were observed when simplified calibration models were used to identify (a) Drosophila reared at 17 °C and 26 °C and (b) 23 °C with low calorie diet. These results strongly suggest that appropriate calibration models need to be developed in the laboratory before this technique can be reliably used in field. These calibration models should include the major environmental variables that change across space and time in the particular natural population to be studied. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The China longitudinal ageing study: overview of the demographic, psychosocial and cognitive data of the Shanghai sample.

PubMed

Xiao, Shifu; Lewis, Matthew; Mellor, David; McCabe, Marita; Byrne, Linda; Wang, Tao; Wang, Jinghua; Zhu, Minjue; Cheng, Yan; Yang, Cece; Dong, Shuhui

2016-01-01

China's ageing population will lead to increased neurodegenerative illness and age-related mental health problems. The Chinese Longitudinal Ageing Study has been developed to better understand the impact of ageing on cognition and mental health. An overview of the sample, major diagnoses and results of the first wave of data collection is presented. One thousand and sixty-eight elderly Chinese (42.2% male), mean age of 72.8 years (SD = 8.5) completed a comprehensive cognitive, psychosocial and mental health assessment. Mean MMSE score was 24.73 (SD = 6.17). Primary generalised anxiety was detected in 0.4% of the sample. Sub-clinical depression and depressive disorder were diagnosed in 1.7% and 2.4% of the sample, respectively. Most (84.5%) reported subjective memory decline, however 66.5% had no cognitive impairment. Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) was detected in 25%, Alzheimer's disease (AD) in 4.7%, vascular dementia in 2.5%, and mixed dementia in 1.3%. Cognition was worse in those 85+ years, but affective disorder rates were not. Higher rates of dementia were detected than previously reported in China. Normative data is presented for common cognitive and mental health assessment and screening tasks in a Chinese population. This suggests that the true incidence of dementia has been underestimated, and requires further investigation.

Animal models of age related macular degeneration

PubMed Central

Pennesi, Mark E.; Neuringer, Martha; Courtney, Robert J.

2013-01-01

Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of vision loss of those over the age of 65 in the industrialized world. The prevalence and need to develop effective treatments for AMD has lead to the development of multiple animal models. AMD is a complex and heterogeneous disease that involves the interaction of both genetic and environmental factors with the unique anatomy of the human macula. Models in mice, rats, rabbits, pigs and non-human primates have recreated many of the histological features of AMD and provided much insight into the underlying pathological mechanisms of this disease. In spite of the large number of models developed, no one model yet recapitulates all of the features of human AMD. However, these models have helped reveal the roles of chronic oxidative damage, inflammation and immune dysregulation, and lipid metabolism in the development of AMD. Models for induced choroidal neovascularization have served as the backbone for testing new therapies. This article will review the diversity of animal models that exist for AMD as well as their strengths and limitations. PMID:22705444

A revised burial dose estimation procedure for optical dating of youngand modern-age sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arnold, L.J.; Roberts, R.G.; Galbraith, R.F.; DeLong, S.B.

2009-01-01

The presence of genuinely zero-age or near-zero-age grains in modern-age and very young samples poses a problem for many existing burial dose estimation procedures used in optical (optically stimulated luminescence, OSL) dating. This difficulty currently necessitates consideration of relatively simplistic and statistically inferior age models. In this study, we investigate the potential for using modified versions of the statistical age models of Galbraith et??al. [Galbraith, R.F., Roberts, R.G., Laslett, G.M., Yoshida, H., Olley, J.M., 1999. Optical dating of single and multiple grains of quartz from Jinmium rock shelter, northern Australia: Part I, experimental design and statistical models. Archaeometry 41, 339-364.] to provide reliable equivalent dose (De) estimates for young and modern-age samples that display negative, zero or near-zero De estimates. For this purpose, we have revised the original versions of the central and minimum age models, which are based on log-transformed De values, so that they can be applied to un-logged De estimates and their associated absolute standard errors. The suitability of these 'un-logged' age models is tested using a series of known-age fluvial samples deposited within two arroyo systems from the American Southwest. The un-logged age models provide accurate burial doses and final OSL ages for roughly three-quarters of the total number of samples considered in this study. Sensitivity tests reveal that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models are capable of producing accurate burial dose estimates for modern-age and very young (<350??yr) fluvial samples that contain (i) more than 20% of well-bleached grains in their De distributions, or (ii) smaller sub-populations of well-bleached grains for which the De values are known with high precision. Our results indicate that the original (log-transformed) versions of the central and minimum age models are still preferable for most routine dating applications

Impaired information sampling in mild dementia of Alzheimer's type but not in healthy aging.

PubMed

Zamarian, Laura; Benke, Thomas; Brand, Matthias; Djamshidian, Atbin; Delazer, Margarete

2015-05-01

It is unknown whether aging affects predecisional processing, that is, gathering information and evaluating options before making a decision. Here, we investigated information sampling in mild Dementia of Alzheimer's type (DAT) and healthy aging by using the Information Sampling Task (IST). In a first investigation, we compared patients with mild DAT (n = 20) with healthy controls (n = 20) on the IST and several neuropsychological background tests. In a second investigation, healthy older adults (n = 30) were compared with younger adults (n = 30) on the IST and executive-function tasks. Results of the first investigation demonstrated that, in the IST, patients gathered significantly less information, made riskier and less accurate decisions, and showed less reward sensitivity relative to controls. We found a significant correlation between performance on the IST and performance on tests of verbal fluency, working memory, and recognition in patients but not in controls. Results of the second investigation indicated a largely similar performance pattern between healthy older adults and younger adults. There were no significant correlations for both groups between the IST and executive-function tasks. There are no relevant changes with healthy aging in predecisional processing. In contrast, mild DAT significantly affects predecisional information sampling. Thus, the problems shown in patients with mild DAT in decision making might be related to the patients' difficulties in predecisional processing. Decision-making performance in mild DAT might be improved by helping the patients at a predecisional stage to gather sufficient information and evaluate options more accurately. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Paternal age increases the risk for autism in an Iranian population sample.

PubMed

Sasanfar, Roksana; Haddad, Stephen A; Tolouei, Ala; Ghadami, Majid; Yu, Dongmei; Santangelo, Susan L

2010-02-22

Autism is a neurodevelopmental disorder which is known to have a strong genetic component and is most likely oligogenic. However, the necessary role of environmental factors has been well documented. Prior research suggests that parental characteristics, such as age and level of education, may be associated with a risk of autism. Parental age has been shown to be associated with many disorders, such as schizophrenia, childhood cancer and fetal death. However, results from studies of parental age and autism are inconsistent. In the present study, we investigated the association of autism with parental age in 179 autism cases and 1611 matched cohort children from Iran. Each case was matched with nine cohort controls on parental education, sex, order of birth, consanguineous marriage, urbanism and province of residence. The Cox regression model was used to carry out conditional logistic regression on the matched data. There was a significant association between higher paternal age, but not maternal age, and an increasing risk of autism. An analysis of the combined effect of parental age and education also revealed that parents with higher education had an increased risk of having autistic children, with a dose-response effect of parental age. This study, which is the first epidemiological study of autism in Iran, provides evidence of the association of paternal age and risk of autism.

Paternal age increases the risk for autism in an Iranian population sample

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Autism is a neurodevelopmental disorder which is known to have a strong genetic component and is most likely oligogenic. However, the necessary role of environmental factors has been well documented. Prior research suggests that parental characteristics, such as age and level of education, may be associated with a risk of autism. Parental age has been shown to be associated with many disorders, such as schizophrenia, childhood cancer and fetal death. However, results from studies of parental age and autism are inconsistent. Methods In the present study, we investigated the association of autism with parental age in 179 autism cases and 1611 matched cohort children from Iran. Each case was matched with nine cohort controls on parental education, sex, order of birth, consanguineous marriage, urbanism and province of residence. The Cox regression model was used to carry out conditional logistic regression on the matched data. Results There was a significant association between higher paternal age, but not maternal age, and an increasing risk of autism. An analysis of the combined effect of parental age and education also revealed that parents with higher education had an increased risk of having autistic children, with a dose-response effect of parental age. Conclusions This study, which is the first epidemiological study of autism in Iran, provides evidence of the association of paternal age and risk of autism. PMID:20678245

Maximum likelihood estimation for Cox's regression model under nested case-control sampling.

PubMed

Scheike, Thomas H; Juul, Anders

2004-04-01

Nested case-control sampling is designed to reduce the costs of large cohort studies. It is important to estimate the parameters of interest as efficiently as possible. We present a new maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for nested case-control sampling in the context of Cox's proportional hazards model. The MLE is computed by the EM-algorithm, which is easy to implement in the proportional hazards setting. Standard errors are estimated by a numerical profile likelihood approach based on EM aided differentiation. The work was motivated by a nested case-control study that hypothesized that insulin-like growth factor I was associated with ischemic heart disease. The study was based on a population of 3784 Danes and 231 cases of ischemic heart disease where controls were matched on age and gender. We illustrate the use of the MLE for these data and show how the maximum likelihood framework can be used to obtain information additional to the relative risk estimates of covariates.

The Moderating Effect of Chronological Age on the Relation Between Neuroticism and Physical Functioning: Cross-Sectional Evidence From Two French Samples.

PubMed

Canada, Brice; Stephan, Yannick; Jaconelli, Alban; Duberstein, Paul R

2016-01-01

Prior studies of age-restricted samples have demonstrated that, in older adulthood, neuroticism is negatively associated with difficulties performing specific daily activities. No studies of neuroticism and physical functioning have been conducted on life-span samples. This study tested the hypothesis that the relationship between neuroticism and physical functioning is stronger in older people compared with younger and middle-aged adults. Data were obtained from 2 independent French samples (n = 1,132 and 1,661 for Samples 1 and 2, respectively) ranging in age from 18 to 97. In addition to reporting sociodemographics, participants completed the Big Five Inventory, the physical functioning scale of the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey, and measures of disease burden. In both samples, regression analysis indicated that neuroticism is more negatively associated with physical functioning with advancing age, controlling for gender, marital status, disease burden, and educational attainment. In life-span samples of more than 2,700 adults, neuroticism was more strongly associated with worse physical functioning among older people compared with younger and middle-aged adults. Longitudinal research is needed to confirm this finding and to identify potential mediators. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Including Deposition Rate in Models of Cosmogenic Nuclide Accumulation in Fluvial Sediments to Improve Terrace Abandonment Ages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norton, K. P.; Wang, N.; Van Dissen, R. J.; Little, T.

2017-12-01

Fluvial sediments are archives of the erosional, transport, and depositional processes occurring in the catchment. Terraces become robust markers for geomorphic analysis if their time of abandonment can be determined. Methods such as OSL can determine burial ages for fine grained sediments within the terrace fill but may not be directly related to the terrace abandonment age. Cosmogenic nuclides can be used to determine exposure ages for geologically young terraces but the surface being dated may have been subsequently eroded and the material itself may have been deposited with an inherited nuclide concentration. To deal with this problem, many researchers collect multiple samples with depth to model the depth-dependent nuclide concentration to help constrain inheritance and post-depositional erosion. It is often, however, assumed that the entire sediment pile accumulated instantaneously. In this submission, we present the results of a depth profile model that incorporates sediment accumulation rate to improve terrace age estimates. We test this model on fault-offset river terraces near Kaikoura, New Zealand. We measured depth profiles of OSL ages and cosmogenic nuclide concentrations of two late Quaternary terraces that are offset by up to 800 m across the Kekerengu Fault. OSL ages and dated tephras in the overlying loess provide minimum age constraints for both terraces while OSL ages of fine-grained sediments within the fill provide depositional ages. The predicted sedimentation rates for the terraces are as high as 0.5m/yr, consistent with geologically instantaneous deposition. Modelled abandonment ages from cosmogenic nuclides for the terraces are consistent with OSL and tephra constraints at 9.7 +/- 3.8 ka and 30.4 +/- 2.1 ka, respectively. These terrace abandonment ages yield dextral slip rates of 18.5-20.5 mm/yr and 25-28 mm/yr, respectively, consistent with the rapid slip rate on the adjacent Hope Fault.

Daily social interactions, close relationships, and systemic inflammation in two samples: Healthy middle-aged and older adults.

PubMed

Bajaj, Amoha; John-Henderson, Neha A; Cundiff, Jenny M; Marsland, Anna L; Manuck, Stephen B; Kamarck, Thomas W

2016-11-01

Systemic inflammation is thought to be a biological mediator between social relationship quality and premature mortality. Empirical work has yielded mixed support for an association of social relationship variables with systemic inflammation, perhaps due to methodological limitations. To date, research in this literature has focused on global perceptions of social relationships, with limited attention to the covariance of characteristics of daily social interactions with inflammation. Here, we examine whether daily interactions, as assessed by ecological momentary assessment (EMA), associate with peripheral markers of inflammation among midlife and older adults. Global social support and integration were measured using the Interpersonal Support Evaluation List (ISEL) and the Social Network Index (SNI), respectively, in older adults from the Pittsburgh Healthy Heart Project (PHHP), and in middle-aged adults from the Adult Health and Behavior Project-II (AHAB-II). Using time-sampled EMA, we assessed the proportion of the day spent in positive and negative social interactions. Systemic markers of inflammation were interleukin (IL)-6 and C-reactive protein (CRP). Global measures of support and integration did not associate with inflammation in either sample. In older adults, relative frequency of total positive interactions, those with close others (i.e. spouse, friends, family), and those with coworkers predicted lower concentrations of IL-6 in fully adjusted models, accounting for age, sex, race, education, BMI, smoking and alcohol. In middle-aged adults, relative frequency of positive interactions with close others was also inversely associated with IL-6 level and relative frequency of negative marital interactions was unexpectedly inversely associated with CRP level. Characteristics of daily social interactions among midlife and older adults associate with markers of systemic inflammation that are known to predict risk for cardiovascular disease. Ambulatory

Age- and sex-specific thorax finite element model development and simulation.

PubMed

Schoell, Samantha L; Weaver, Ashley A; Vavalle, Nicholas A; Stitzel, Joel D

2015-01-01

The shape, size, bone density, and cortical thickness of the thoracic skeleton vary significantly with age and sex, which can affect the injury tolerance, especially in at-risk populations such as the elderly. Computational modeling has emerged as a powerful and versatile tool to assess injury risk. However, current computational models only represent certain ages and sexes in the population. The purpose of this study was to morph an existing finite element (FE) model of the thorax to depict thorax morphology for males and females of ages 30 and 70 years old (YO) and to investigate the effect on injury risk. Age- and sex-specific FE models were developed using thin-plate spline interpolation. In order to execute the thin-plate spline interpolation, homologous landmarks on the reference, target, and FE model are required. An image segmentation and registration algorithm was used to collect homologous rib and sternum landmark data from males and females aged 0-100 years. The Generalized Procrustes Analysis was applied to the homologous landmark data to quantify age- and sex-specific isolated shape changes in the thorax. The Global Human Body Models Consortium (GHBMC) 50th percentile male occupant model was morphed to create age- and sex-specific thoracic shape change models (scaled to a 50th percentile male size). To evaluate the thoracic response, 2 loading cases (frontal hub impact and lateral impact) were simulated to assess the importance of geometric and material property changes with age and sex. Due to the geometric and material property changes with age and sex, there were observed differences in the response of the thorax in both the frontal and lateral impacts. Material property changes alone had little to no effect on the maximum thoracic force or the maximum percent compression. With age, the thorax becomes stiffer due to superior rotation of the ribs, which can result in increased bone strain that can increase the risk of fracture. For the 70-YO models

An artificial intelligence tool for complex age-depth models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradley, E.; Anderson, K. A.; de Vesine, L. R.; Lai, V.; Thomas, M.; Nelson, T. H.; Weiss, I.; White, J. W. C.

2017-12-01

CSciBox is an integrated software system for age modeling of paleoenvironmental records. It incorporates an array of data-processing and visualization facilities, ranging from 14C calibrations to sophisticated interpolation tools. Using CSciBox's GUI, a scientist can build custom analysis pipelines by composing these built-in components or adding new ones. Alternatively, she can employ CSciBox's automated reasoning engine, Hobbes, which uses AI techniques to perform an in-depth, autonomous exploration of the space of possible age-depth models and presents the results—both the models and the reasoning that was used in constructing and evaluating them—to the user for her inspection. Hobbes accomplishes this using a rulebase that captures the knowledge of expert geoscientists, which was collected over the course of more than 100 hours of interviews. It works by using these rules to generate arguments for and against different age-depth model choices for a given core. Given a marine-sediment record containing uncalibrated 14C dates, for instance, Hobbes tries CALIB-style calibrations using a choice of IntCal curves, with reservoir age correction values chosen from the 14CHRONO database using the lat/long information provided with the core, and finally composes the resulting age points into a full age model using different interpolation methods. It evaluates each model—e.g., looking for outliers or reversals—and uses that information to guide the next steps of its exploration, and presents the results to the user in human-readable form. The most powerful of CSciBox's built-in interpolation methods is BACON, a Bayesian sedimentation-rate algorithm—a powerful but complex tool that can be difficult to use. Hobbes adjusts BACON's many parameters autonomously to match the age model to the expectations of expert geoscientists, as captured in its rulebase. It then checks the model against the data and iteratively re-calculates until it is a good fit to the data.

Optimal time points sampling in pathway modelling.

PubMed

Hu, Shiyan

2004-01-01

Modelling cellular dynamics based on experimental data is at the heart of system biology. Considerable progress has been made to dynamic pathway modelling as well as the related parameter estimation. However, few of them gives consideration for the issue of optimal sampling time selection for parameter estimation. Time course experiments in molecular biology rarely produce large and accurate data sets and the experiments involved are usually time consuming and expensive. Therefore, to approximate parameters for models with only few available sampling data is of significant practical value. For signal transduction, the sampling intervals are usually not evenly distributed and are based on heuristics. In the paper, we investigate an approach to guide the process of selecting time points in an optimal way to minimize the variance of parameter estimates. In the method, we first formulate the problem to a nonlinear constrained optimization problem by maximum likelihood estimation. We then modify and apply a quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm, which combines the advantages of both quantum computing and evolutionary computing, to solve the optimization problem. The new algorithm does not suffer from the morass of selecting good initial values and being stuck into local optimum as usually accompanied with the conventional numerical optimization techniques. The simulation results indicate the soundness of the new method.

Mouse models of ageing and their relevance to disease.

PubMed

Kõks, Sulev; Dogan, Soner; Tuna, Bilge Guvenc; González-Navarro, Herminia; Potter, Paul; Vandenbroucke, Roosmarijn E

2016-12-01

Ageing is a process that gradually increases the organism's vulnerability to death. It affects different biological pathways, and the underlying cellular mechanisms are complex. In view of the growing disease burden of ageing populations, increasing efforts are being invested in understanding the pathways and mechanisms of ageing. We review some mouse models commonly used in studies on ageing, highlight the advantages and disadvantages of the different strategies, and discuss their relevance to disease susceptibility. In addition to addressing the genetics and phenotypic analysis of mice, we discuss examples of models of delayed or accelerated ageing and their modulation by caloric restriction. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Cellular senescence in the Penna model of aging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Periwal, Avikar

2013-11-01

Cellular senescence is thought to play a major role in age-related diseases, which cause nearly 67% of all human deaths worldwide. Recent research in mice showed that exercising mice had higher levels of telomerase, an enzyme that helps maintain telomere length, than nonexercising mice. A commonly used model for biological aging was proposed by Penna. I propose a modification of the Penna model that incorporates cellular senescence and find an analytical steady-state solution following Coe, Mao, and Cates [Phys. Rev. Lett.PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.89.288103 89, 288103 (2002)]. I find that models corresponding to delayed cellular senescence have younger populations that live longer. I fit the model to the United Kingdom's death distribution, which the original Penna model cannot do.

Digital coordinates and age of more than 13,000 foraminifers samples collected by Chevron Petroleum geologists in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Malmblorg, William T.; West, William B.; Brabb, Earl E.; Parker, John M.

2008-01-01

The general location and age of more than 33,500 mostly foraminifer samples from Chevron surface localities in nearly 600 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 7.5' quadrangles from California were provided by Brabb and Parker (2003). Barren and non-diagnostic samples plus many that have no paleontologic information were omitted to provide a revised list for more than 27,000 of these samples by Brabb and Parker (2005). The locations for many of these samples were recorded by Chevron geoscientists on topographic maps (originals now in the USGS Library in Menlo Park, Calif.). The recent availability of digital databases for geologic and topographic maps has provided the opportunity to prepare a database of the locations of these Chevron samples so that the information can be combined with geology and topography for plotting or geospatial analysis. This report provides specific locations for more than 13,000 samples in central California that have enough paleontologic information to determine their age but omits thousands of samples that are too closely spaced to differentiate or those that have only a general location.

Work Ability: using structural equation modeling to assess the effects of aging, health and work on the population of Brazilian municipal employees.

PubMed

Alcântara, Marcus A; Sampaio, Rosana F; Assunção, Ada Ávila; Silva, Fabiana C Martins

2014-01-01

The Work Ability Model has a holistic structure that incorporates individual characteristics, work-related factors and life outside of work. The model has been explored in the context of Finland but still needs to be applied in other countries. The aim of this study was to examine the relationships between age, health, work and work ability in a sample of Brazilian municipal employees. A sample of 5,646 workers answered a web-survey questionnaire that collected information about socio-demographics, health, work characteristics and work ability. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to examine the simultaneous relationships between the variables that comprise the Work Ability Model. The sample was predominantly female (68.0%), between 30 and 49 years old (60.0%) and highly educated (66.0%). SEM produced good fit indexes that supported the Work Ability Model. Age was positively related to work ability and negatively related to health. Health and work characteristics positively influenced work ability. The results produced additional support for the conceptualization of work ability as a complex and dynamic phenomenon: a system composed of an individual and various elements of his/her work interact in time and space in a nonlinear way.

Preparation of NO 2-Aged Silver-Functionalized Silica-Aerogel and Silver Mordenite Samples

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jordan, Jacob A.; Bruffey, Stephanie H.

2016-10-01

Reprocessing used nuclear fuel can result in the volatilization of radioactive gaseous species, including 129I, into the various process off-gas streams. In order to comply with US regulatory requirements, plant off-gas streams must be treated to remove the iodine prior to discharging the off-gas into the environment. The performance of available gas removal methods depends not only on the concentration of the volatile radioisotope of interest, but also on other constituents that could be present in the reprocessing off-gas streams. Some of the constituents, such as NOx produced during fuel dissolution, are known to have deleterious effects on the capturemore » performance of silver-based sorbents used for iodine removal. Commercially available reduced silver mordenite (AgZ) has an iodine saturation concentration of 7.0-9.0 wt%, and its iodine sorption capacity is reduced by 20-50% as a result of NO2 aging. Silverfunctionalized silica aerogel (AgAerogel), an alternative for iodine capture, has an initial iodine saturation of 29.0 wt% and its iodine capacity is only reduced by 15% from NO2 aging. Understanding the differences in aging behavior between AgZ and AgAerogel is critical to determining the behavior of these sorbents under realistic off-gas conditions. To assist in future technical studies on this topic, samples of both AgZ and AgAerogel were aged with NO2. In the experiment, 10.2190 g of AgZ and 10.1771 g of AgAerogel were exposed to a static 0.75% NO 2/dry air blend for a period of 28 days. The samples were then removed and stored under argon until needed for future experiments.=« less

Modeling the brain morphology distribution in the general aging population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huizinga, W.; Poot, D. H. J.; Roshchupkin, G.; Bron, E. E.; Ikram, M. A.; Vernooij, M. W.; Rueckert, D.; Niessen, W. J.; Klein, S.

2016-03-01

Both normal aging and neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease cause morphological changes of the brain. To better distinguish between normal and abnormal cases, it is necessary to model changes in brain morphology owing to normal aging. To this end, we developed a method for analyzing and visualizing these changes for the entire brain morphology distribution in the general aging population. The method is applied to 1000 subjects from a large population imaging study in the elderly, from which 900 were used to train the model and 100 were used for testing. The results of the 100 test subjects show that the model generalizes to subjects outside the model population. Smooth percentile curves showing the brain morphology changes as a function of age and spatiotemporal atlases derived from the model population are publicly available via an interactive web application at agingbrain.bigr.nl.

Regional Evaluation of Groundwater Age Distributions Using Lumped Parameter Models with Large, Sparse Datasets: Example from the Central Valley, California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurgens, B. C.; Bohlke, J. K.; Voss, S.; Fram, M. S.; Esser, B.

2015-12-01

Tracer-based, lumped parameter models (LPMs) are an appealing way to estimate the distribution of age for groundwater because the cost of sampling wells is often less than building numerical groundwater flow models sufficiently complex to provide groundwater age distributions. In practice, however, tracer datasets are often incomplete because of anthropogenic or terrigenic contamination of tracers, or analytical limitations. While age interpretations using such datsets can have large uncertainties, it may still be possible to identify key parts of the age distribution if LPMs are carefully chosen to match hydrogeologic conceptualization and the degree of age mixing is reasonably estimated. We developed a systematic approach for evaluating groundwater age distributions using LPMs with a large but incomplete set of tracer data (3H, 3Hetrit, 14C, and CFCs) from 535 wells, mostly used for public supply, in the Central Valley, California, USA that were sampled by the USGS for the California State Water Resources Control Board Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment or the USGS National Water Quality Assessment Programs. In addition to mean ages, LPMs gave estimates of unsaturated zone travel times, recharge rates for pre- and post-development groundwater, the degree of age mixing in wells, proportion of young water (<60 yrs), and the depth of the boundary between post-development and predevelopment groundwater throughout the Central Valley. Age interpretations were evaluated by comparing past nitrate trends with LPM predicted trends, and whether the presence or absence of anthropogenic organic compounds was consistent with model results. This study illustrates a practical approach for assessing groundwater age information at a large scale to reveal important characteristics about the age structure of a major aquifer, and of the water supplies being derived from it.

Optimizing a Male Reproductive Aging Mouse Model by d-Galactose Injection

PubMed Central

Liao, Chun-Hou; Chen, Bing-Huei; Chiang, Han-Sun; Chen, Chiu-Wei; Chen, Mei-Feng; Ke, Chih-Chun; Wang, Ya-Yun; Lin, Wei-Ning; Wang, Chi-Chung; Lin, Ying-Hung

2016-01-01

The d-galactose (d-gal)-injected animal model, which is typically established by administering consecutive subcutaneous d-gal injections to animals for approximately six or eight weeks, has been frequently used for aging research. In addition, this animal model has been demonstrated to accelerate aging in the brain, kidneys, liver and blood cells. However, studies on aging in male reproductive organs that have used this animal model remain few. Therefore, the current study aimed to optimize a model of male reproductive aging by administering d-gal injections to male mice and to determine the possible mechanism expediting senescence processes during spermatogenesis. In this study, C57Bl/6 mice were randomized into five groups (each containing 8–10 mice according to the daily intraperitoneal injection of vehicle control or 100 or 200 mg/kg dosages of d-gal for a period of six or eight weeks). First, mice subjected to d-gal injections for six or eight weeks demonstrated considerably decreased superoxide dismutase activity in the serum and testis lysates compared to those in the control group. The lipid peroxidation in testis also increased in the d-gal-injected groups. Furthermore, the d-gal-injected groups exhibited a decreased ratio of testis weight/body weight and sperm count compared to the control group. The percentages of both immotile sperm and abnormal sperm increased considerably in the d-gal-injected groups compared to those of the control group. To determine the genes influenced by the d-gal injection during murine spermatogenesis, a c-DNA microarray was conducted to compare testicular RNA samples between the treated groups and the control group. The d-gal-injected groups exhibited RNA transcripts of nine spermatogenesis-related genes (Cycl2, Hk1, Pltp, Utp3, Cabyr, Zpbp2, Speer2, Csnka2ip and Katnb1) that were up- or down-regulated by at least two-fold compared to the control group. Several of these genes are critical for forming sperm-head morphologies

An age-structured extension to the vectorial capacity model.

PubMed

Novoseltsev, Vasiliy N; Michalski, Anatoli I; Novoseltseva, Janna A; Yashin, Anatoliy I; Carey, James R; Ellis, Alicia M

2012-01-01

Vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number (R(0)) have been instrumental in structuring thinking about vector-borne pathogen transmission and how best to prevent the diseases they cause. One of the more important simplifying assumptions of these models is age-independent vector mortality. A growing body of evidence indicates that insect vectors exhibit age-dependent mortality, which can have strong and varied affects on pathogen transmission dynamics and strategies for disease prevention. Based on survival analysis we derived new equations for vectorial capacity and R(0) that are valid for any pattern of age-dependent (or age-independent) vector mortality and explore the behavior of the models across various mortality patterns. The framework we present (1) lays the groundwork for an extension and refinement of the vectorial capacity paradigm by introducing an age-structured extension to the model, (2) encourages further research on the actuarial dynamics of vectors in particular and the relationship of vector mortality to pathogen transmission in general, and (3) provides a detailed quantitative basis for understanding the relative impact of reductions in vector longevity compared to other vector-borne disease prevention strategies. Accounting for age-dependent vector mortality in estimates of vectorial capacity and R(0) was most important when (1) vector densities are relatively low and the pattern of mortality can determine whether pathogen transmission will persist; i.e., determines whether R(0) is above or below 1, (2) vector population growth rate is relatively low and there are complex interactions between birth and death that differ fundamentally from birth-death relationships with age-independent mortality, and (3) the vector exhibits complex patterns of age-dependent mortality and R(0) ∼ 1. A limiting factor in the construction and evaluation of new age-dependent mortality models is the paucity of data characterizing vector mortality patterns

How old is this bird? The age distribution under some phase sampling schemes.

PubMed

Hautphenne, Sophie; Massaro, Melanie; Taylor, Peter

2017-12-01

In this paper, we use a finite-state continuous-time Markov chain with one absorbing state to model an individual's lifetime. Under this model, the time of death follows a phase-type distribution, and the transient states of the Markov chain are known as phases. We then attempt to provide an answer to the simple question "What is the conditional age distribution of the individual, given its current phase"? We show that the answer depends on how we interpret the question, and in particular, on the phase observation scheme under consideration. We then apply our results to the computation of the age pyramid for the endangered Chatham Island black robin Petroica traversi during the monitoring period 2007-2014.

An age dependent model for radium metabolism in man.

PubMed

Johnson, J R

1983-01-01

The model developed by a Task Group of Committee 2 of ICRP to describe Alkaline Earth Metabolism in Adult Man (ICRP Publication 20) has been modified so that recycling is handled explicitly, and retention in mineral bone is represented by second compartments rather than by the product of a power function and an exponential. This model has been extended to include all ages from birth to adult man, and has been coupled with modified "ICRP" lung and G.I. tract models so that activity in organs can be calculated as functions of time during or after exposures. These activities, and age dependent "specific effective energy" factors, are then used to calculate age dependent dose rates, and dose commitments. This presentation describes this work, with emphasis on the model parameters and results obtained for radium.

Do gender and age moderate the symptom structure of PTSD? Findings from a national clinical sample of children and adolescents.

PubMed

Contractor, Ateka A; Layne, Christopher M; Steinberg, Alan M; Ostrowski, Sarah A; Ford, Julian D; Elhai, Jon D

2013-12-30

A substantial body of evidence documents that the frequency and intensity of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms are linked to such demographic variables as female sex (e.g., Kaplow et al., 2005) and age (e.g., Meiser-Stedman et al., 2008). Considerably less is known about relations between biological sex and age with PTSD's latent factor structure. This study systematically examined the roles that sex and age may play as candidate moderators of the full range of factor structure parameters of an empirically supported five-factor PTSD model (Elhai et al., 2011). The sample included 6591 trauma-exposed children and adolescents selected from the National Child Traumatic Stress Network's Core Data Set. Confirmatory factor analysis using invariance testing (Gregorich, 2006) and comparative fit index difference values (Cheung and Rensvold, 2002) reflected a mixed pattern of test item intercepts across age groups. The adolescent subsample produced lower residual error variances, reflecting less measurement error than the child subsample. Sex did not show a robust moderating effect. We conclude by discussing implications for clinical assessment, theory building, and future research. © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age and the metabolic syndrome affect salivary cortisol rhythm: data from a community sample.

PubMed

Ceccato, Filippo; Barbot, Mattia; Zilio, Marialuisa; Ferasin, Sergio; De Lazzari, Paola; Lizzul, Laura; Boscaro, Marco; Scaroni, Carla

2015-01-01

Measurement of cortisol levels in saliva is a marker of free hormone. How salivary cortisol rhythm is affected by age, gender, the metabolic syndrome and estrogen-progestin therapy was evaluated in a community sample of adults. One hundred twenty volunteers recruited from the Hospital staff and family members of the Endocrinology Unit were instructed to collect 7 salivary samples: the first on awakening (F(0)) and 6 more (F(1.5), F(5), F(6), F(10), F(11.5) and F(14)) over the next 14 hours. Each volunteer also underwent a complete physical evaluation and a comprehensive medical history was taken. Salivary cortisol was measured using a radioimmunometric assay. Daily cortisol secretion was evaluated computing the Area Under the Curve (AUC(F0)(→)(F14)); the F(14)/F(0) ratio was calculated as a marker of cortisol rhythm. Median F(14) levels were higher in the subjects in the third tertile of age than in those falling in the second or in the first age tertile (respectively, 2.09 vs 1.33 vs 1.25 ng/mL, p=0.023 and p=0.006), in the hypertensive volunteers (2.44 vs 1.44 ng/mL, p=0.030) and in those with the metabolic syndrome (2.95 vs 1.4 ng/mL, p=0.002), with an elevated median F(14)/F(0) ratio (0.48 vs 0.19, p=0.006). According to the Kruskal-Wallis analysis of variance, the most important factor affecting F(14) value was age (p=0.001). AUC(F0)(→)(F14) was not influenced by gender, age, metabolic syndrome or estrogen-progestin therapy. While it did not affect the daily cortisol rate, late-night salivary cortisol levels were found to be increased in the subjects in the higher age tertile and in those with the metabolic syndrome.

Trends in Scottish newborn screening programme for congenital hypothyroidism 1980-2014: strategies for reducing age at notification after initial and repeat sampling.

PubMed

Mansour, Chourouk; Ouarezki, Yasmine; Jones, Jeremy; Fitch, Moira; Smith, Sarah; Mason, Avril; Donaldson, Malcolm

2017-10-01

To determine ages at first capillary sampling and notification and age at notification after second sampling in Scottish newborns referred with elevated thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH). Referrals between 1980 and 2014 inclusive were grouped into seven 5-year blocks and analysed according to agreed standards. Of 2 116 132 newborn infants screened, 919 were referred with capillary TSH elevation ≥8 mU/L of whom 624 had definite (606) or probable (18) congenital hypothyroidism. Median age at first sampling fell from 7 to 5 days between 1980 and 2014 (standard 4-7 days), with 22, 8 and 3 infants sampled >7 days during 2000-2004, 2005-2009 and 2010-2014. Median age at notification was consistently ≤14 days, range falling during 2000-2004, 2005-2009 and 2010-2014 from 6 to 78, 7-52 and 7-32 days with 12 (14.6%), 6 (5.6%) and 5 (4.3%) infants notified >14 days. However 18/123 (14.6%) of infants undergoing second sampling from 2000 onwards breached the ≤26-day standard for notification. By 2010-2014, the 91 infants with confirmed congenital hypothyroidism had shown favourable median age at first sample (5 days) with start of treatment (10.5 days) approaching age at notification. Most standards for newborn thyroid screening are being met by the Scottish programme, but there is a need to reduce age range at notification, particularly following second sampling. Strategies to improve screening performance include carrying out initial capillary sampling as close to 96 hours as possible; introducing 6-day laboratory reporting and use of electronic transmission for communicating repeat requests. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Evaluation and clinical significance of the stomach age model for evaluating aging of the stomach-a multicenter study in China

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background A higher prevalence of chronic atrophic gastritis (CAG) occurs in younger adults in Asia. We used Stomach Age to examine the different mechanisms of CAG between younger adults and elderly individuals, and established a simple model of cancer risk that can be applied to CAG surveillance. Methods Stomach Age was determined by FISH examination of telomere length in stomach biopsies. Δψm was also determined by flow cytometry. Sixty volunteers were used to confirm the linear relationship between telomere length and age while 120 subjects were used to build a mathematical model by a multivariate analysis. Overall, 146 subjects were used to evaluate the validity of the model, and 1,007 subjects were used to evaluate the relationship between prognosis and Δage (calculated from the mathematical model). ROC curves were used to evaluate the relationship between prognosis and Δage and to determine the cut-off point for Δage. Results We established that a tight linear relationship between the telomere length and the age. The telomere length was obvious different between patients with and without CAG even in the same age. Δψm decreased in individuals whose Stomach Age was greater than real age, especially in younger adults. A mathematical model of Stomach Age (real age + Δage) was successfully constructed which was easy to apply in clinical work. A higher Δage was correlated with a worse outcome. The criterion of Δage >3.11 should be considered as the cut-off to select the subgroup of patients who require endoscopic surveillance. Conclusion Variation in Stomach Age between individuals of the same biological age was confirmed. Attention should be paid to those with a greater Stomach Age, especially in younger adults. The Δage in the Simple Model can be used as a criterion to select CAG patients for gastric cancer surveillance. PMID:25057261

A Novel Physiology-Based Mathematical Model to Estimate Red Blood Cell Lifespan in Different Human Age Groups.

PubMed

An, Guohua; Widness, John A; Mock, Donald M; Veng-Pedersen, Peter

2016-09-01

Direct measurement of red blood cell (RBC) survival in humans has improved from the original accurate but limited differential agglutination technique to the current reliable, safe, and accurate biotin method. Despite this, all of these methods are time consuming and require blood sampling over several months to determine the RBC lifespan. For situations in which RBC survival information must be obtained quickly, these methods are not suitable. With the exception of adults and infants, RBC survival has not been extensively investigated in other age groups. To address this need, we developed a novel, physiology-based mathematical model that quickly estimates RBC lifespan in healthy individuals at any age. The model is based on the assumption that the total number of RBC recirculations during the lifespan of each RBC (denoted by N max) is relatively constant for all age groups. The model was initially validated using the data from our prior infant and adult biotin-labeled red blood cell studies and then extended to the other age groups. The model generated the following estimated RBC lifespans in 2-year-old, 5-year-old, 8-year-old, and 10-year-old children: 62, 74, 82, and 86 days, respectively. We speculate that this model has useful clinical applications. For example, HbA1c testing is not reliable in identifying children with diabetes because HbA1c is directly affected by RBC lifespan. Because our model can estimate RBC lifespan in children at any age, corrections to HbA1c values based on the model-generated RBC lifespan could improve diabetes diagnosis as well as therapy in children.

Isolation and identification of age-related DNA methylation markers for forensic age-prediction.

PubMed

Yi, Shao Hua; Xu, Long Chang; Mei, Kun; Yang, Rong Zhi; Huang, Dai Xin

2014-07-01

Age-prediction is an important part of forensic science. There is no available method of individual age-prediction for general forensic biological samples at crime scenes. Accumulating evidence indicates that aging resembles a developmentally regulated process tightly controlled by specific age-associated methylation exists in human genome. This study isolated and identified eight gene fragments in which the degree of cytosine methylation is significantly correlated with age in blood of 40 donors. Furthermore, we validated two CpG sites of each gene fragment and replicated our results in a general population sample of 40 males and 25 females with a wide age-range (11-72 years). The methylation of these fragments is linear with age over a range of six decades (Fragment P1 (r=-0.64), P2 (r=-0.58), P3 (r=-0.79), R1 (r=0.82), R2 (r=0.63), R3 (r=0.59), R4 (r=0.63) and R5 (r=0.62)). Using average methylation of two CpG sites from each fragment, we built a regression model that explained 95% of the variance in age and is able to predict the age of an individual with great accuracy (R(2)=0.918). The predicted values are highly correlated with the observed age in the sample (r=0.91). This study implicates that DNA methylation will be an available biological marker of age-prediction. Furthermore, measurement of relevant sites in the genome could be a tool in routine forensic screening to predict age of biological samples. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Model Based Approach to Sample Size Estimation in Recent Onset Type 1 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Bundy, Brian; Krischer, Jeffrey P.

2016-01-01

The area under the curve C-peptide following a 2-hour mixed meal tolerance test from 481 individuals enrolled on 5 prior TrialNet studies of recent onset type 1 diabetes from baseline to 12 months after enrollment were modelled to produce estimates of its rate of loss and variance. Age at diagnosis and baseline C-peptide were found to be significant predictors and adjusting for these in an ANCOVA resulted in estimates with lower variance. Using these results as planning parameters for new studies results in a nearly 50% reduction in the target sample size. The modelling also produces an expected C-peptide that can be used in Observed vs. Expected calculations to estimate the presumption of benefit in ongoing trials. PMID:26991448

The genealogy of samples in models with selection.

PubMed

Neuhauser, C; Krone, S M

1997-02-01

We introduce the genealogy of a random sample of genes taken from a large haploid population that evolves according to random reproduction with selection and mutation. Without selection, the genealogy is described by Kingman's well-known coalescent process. In the selective case, the genealogy of the sample is embedded in a graph with a coalescing and branching structure. We describe this graph, called the ancestral selection graph, and point out differences and similarities with Kingman's coalescent. We present simulations for a two-allele model with symmetric mutation in which one of the alleles has a selective advantage over the other. We find that when the allele frequencies in the population are already in equilibrium, then the genealogy does not differ much from the neutral case. This is supported by rigorous results. Furthermore, we describe the ancestral selection graph for other selective models with finitely many selection classes, such as the K-allele models, infinitely-many-alleles models. DNA sequence models, and infinitely-many-sites models, and briefly discuss the diploid case.

The Genealogy of Samples in Models with Selection

PubMed Central

Neuhauser, C.; Krone, S. M.

1997-01-01

We introduce the genealogy of a random sample of genes taken from a large haploid population that evolves according to random reproduction with selection and mutation. Without selection, the genealogy is described by Kingman's well-known coalescent process. In the selective case, the genealogy of the sample is embedded in a graph with a coalescing and branching structure. We describe this graph, called the ancestral selection graph, and point out differences and similarities with Kingman's coalescent. We present simulations for a two-allele model with symmetric mutation in which one of the alleles has a selective advantage over the other. We find that when the allele frequencies in the population are already in equilibrium, then the genealogy does not differ much from the neutral case. This is supported by rigorous results. Furthermore, we describe the ancestral selection graph for other selective models with finitely many selection classes, such as the K-allele models, infinitely-many-alleles models, DNA sequence models, and infinitely-many-sites models, and briefly discuss the diploid case. PMID:9071604

CONSISTENCY UNDER SAMPLING OF EXPONENTIAL RANDOM GRAPH MODELS.

PubMed

Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla; Rinaldo, Alessandro

2013-04-01

The growing availability of network data and of scientific interest in distributed systems has led to the rapid development of statistical models of network structure. Typically, however, these are models for the entire network, while the data consists only of a sampled sub-network. Parameters for the whole network, which is what is of interest, are estimated by applying the model to the sub-network. This assumes that the model is consistent under sampling , or, in terms of the theory of stochastic processes, that it defines a projective family. Focusing on the popular class of exponential random graph models (ERGMs), we show that this apparently trivial condition is in fact violated by many popular and scientifically appealing models, and that satisfying it drastically limits ERGM's expressive power. These results are actually special cases of more general results about exponential families of dependent random variables, which we also prove. Using such results, we offer easily checked conditions for the consistency of maximum likelihood estimation in ERGMs, and discuss some possible constructive responses.

CONSISTENCY UNDER SAMPLING OF EXPONENTIAL RANDOM GRAPH MODELS

PubMed Central

Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla; Rinaldo, Alessandro

2015-01-01

The growing availability of network data and of scientific interest in distributed systems has led to the rapid development of statistical models of network structure. Typically, however, these are models for the entire network, while the data consists only of a sampled sub-network. Parameters for the whole network, which is what is of interest, are estimated by applying the model to the sub-network. This assumes that the model is consistent under sampling, or, in terms of the theory of stochastic processes, that it defines a projective family. Focusing on the popular class of exponential random graph models (ERGMs), we show that this apparently trivial condition is in fact violated by many popular and scientifically appealing models, and that satisfying it drastically limits ERGM’s expressive power. These results are actually special cases of more general results about exponential families of dependent random variables, which we also prove. Using such results, we offer easily checked conditions for the consistency of maximum likelihood estimation in ERGMs, and discuss some possible constructive responses. PMID:26166910

Sampling through time and phylodynamic inference with coalescent and birth–death models

PubMed Central

Volz, Erik M.; Frost, Simon D. W.

2014-01-01

Many population genetic models have been developed for the purpose of inferring population size and growth rates from random samples of genetic data. We examine two popular approaches to this problem, the coalescent and the birth–death-sampling model (BDM), in the context of estimating population size and birth rates in a population growing exponentially according to the birth–death branching process. For sequences sampled at a single time, we found the coalescent and the BDM gave virtually indistinguishable results in terms of the growth rates and fraction of the population sampled, even when sampling from a small population. For sequences sampled at multiple time points, we find that the birth–death model estimators are subject to large bias if the sampling process is misspecified. Since BDMs incorporate a model of the sampling process, we show how much of the statistical power of BDMs arises from the sequence of sample times and not from the genealogical tree. This motivates the development of a new coalescent estimator, which is augmented with a model of the known sampling process and is potentially more precise than the coalescent that does not use sample time information. PMID:25401173

Model-based inference for small area estimation with sampling weights

PubMed Central

Vandendijck, Y.; Faes, C.; Kirby, R.S.; Lawson, A.; Hens, N.

2017-01-01

Obtaining reliable estimates about health outcomes for areas or domains where only few to no samples are available is the goal of small area estimation (SAE). Often, we rely on health surveys to obtain information about health outcomes. Such surveys are often characterised by a complex design, stratification, and unequal sampling weights as common features. Hierarchical Bayesian models are well recognised in SAE as a spatial smoothing method, but often ignore the sampling weights that reflect the complex sampling design. In this paper, we focus on data obtained from a health survey where the sampling weights of the sampled individuals are the only information available about the design. We develop a predictive model-based approach to estimate the prevalence of a binary outcome for both the sampled and non-sampled individuals, using hierarchical Bayesian models that take into account the sampling weights. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of our proposed method with other established methods. The results indicate that our proposed method achieves great reductions in mean squared error when compared with standard approaches. It performs equally well or better when compared with more elaborate methods when there is a relationship between the responses and the sampling weights. The proposed method is applied to estimate asthma prevalence across districts. PMID:28989860

Otolith reading and multi-model inference for improved estimation of age and growth in the gilthead seabream Sparus aurata (L.)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercier, Lény; Panfili, Jacques; Paillon, Christelle; N'diaye, Awa; Mouillot, David; Darnaude, Audrey M.

2011-05-01

Accurate knowledge of fish age and growth is crucial for species conservation and management of exploited marine stocks. In exploited species, age estimation based on otolith reading is routinely used for building growth curves that are used to implement fishery management models. However, the universal fit of the von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) on data from commercial landings can lead to uncertainty in growth parameter inference, preventing accurate comparison of growth-based history traits between fish populations. In the present paper, we used a comprehensive annual sample of wild gilthead seabream ( Sparus aurata L.) in the Gulf of Lions (France, NW Mediterranean) to test a methodology improving growth modelling for exploited fish populations. After validating the timing for otolith annual increment formation for all life stages, a comprehensive set of growth models (including VBGF) were fitted to the obtained age-length data, used as a whole or sub-divided between group 0 individuals and those coming from commercial landings (ages 1-6). Comparisons in growth model accuracy based on Akaike Information Criterion allowed assessment of the best model for each dataset and, when no model correctly fitted the data, a multi-model inference (MMI) based on model averaging was carried out. The results provided evidence that growth parameters inferred with VBGF must be used with high caution. Hence, VBGF turned to be among the less accurate for growth prediction irrespective of the dataset and its fit to the whole population, the juvenile or the adult datasets provided different growth parameters. The best models for growth prediction were the Tanaka model, for group 0 juveniles, and the MMI, for the older fish, confirming that growth differs substantially between juveniles and adults. All asymptotic models failed to correctly describe the growth of adult S. aurata, probably because of the poor representation of old individuals in the dataset. Multi-model

A ternary age-mixing model to explain contaminant occurrence in a deep supply well

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jurgens, Bryant; Bexfield, Laura M.; Eberts, Sandra

2014-01-01

The age distribution of water from a public-supply well in a deep alluvial aquifer was estimated and used to help explain arsenic variability in the water. The age distribution was computed using a ternary mixing model that combines three lumped parameter models of advection-dispersion transport of environmental tracers, which represent relatively recent recharge (post- 1950s) containing volatile organic compounds (VOCs), old intermediate depth groundwater (about 6500 years) that was free of drinking-water contaminants, and very old, deep groundwater (more than 21,000 years) containing arsenic above the USEPA maximum contaminant level of 10 µg/L. The ternary mixing model was calibrated to tritium, chloroflorocarbon-113, and carbon-14 (14C) concentrations that were measured in water samples collected on multiple occasions. Variability in atmospheric 14C over the past 50,000 years was accounted for in the interpretation of 14C as a tracer. Calibrated ternary models indicate the fraction of deep, very old groundwater entering the well varies substantially throughout the year and was highest following long periods of nonoperation or infrequent operation, which occured during the winter season when water demand was low. The fraction of young water entering the well was about 11% during the summer when pumping peaked to meet water demand and about 3% to 6% during the winter months. This paper demonstrates how collection of multiple tracers can be used in combination with simplified models of fluid flow to estimate the age distribution and thus fraction of contaminated groundwater reaching a supply well under different pumping conditions.

A Ternary Age-Mixing Model to Explain Contaminant Occurrence in a Deep Supply Well

PubMed Central

Jurgens, Bryant C; Bexfield, Laura M; Eberts, Sandra M

2014-01-01

The age distribution of water from a public-supply well in a deep alluvial aquifer was estimated and used to help explain arsenic variability in the water. The age distribution was computed using a ternary mixing model that combines three lumped parameter models of advection-dispersion transport of environmental tracers, which represent relatively recent recharge (post-1950s) containing volatile organic compounds (VOCs), old intermediate depth groundwater (about 6500 years) that was free of drinking-water contaminants, and very old, deep groundwater (more than 21,000 years) containing arsenic above the USEPA maximum contaminant level of 10 µg/L. The ternary mixing model was calibrated to tritium, chloroflorocarbon-113, and carbon-14 (14C) concentrations that were measured in water samples collected on multiple occasions. Variability in atmospheric 14C over the past 50,000 years was accounted for in the interpretation of 14C as a tracer. Calibrated ternary models indicate the fraction of deep, very old groundwater entering the well varies substantially throughout the year and was highest following long periods of nonoperation or infrequent operation, which occured during the winter season when water demand was low. The fraction of young water entering the well was about 11% during the summer when pumping peaked to meet water demand and about 3% to 6% during the winter months. This paper demonstrates how collection of multiple tracers can be used in combination with simplified models of fluid flow to estimate the age distribution and thus fraction of contaminated groundwater reaching a supply well under different pumping conditions. PMID:24597520

Night sampling improves indices used for management of yellow perch in Lake Erie

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kocovsky, P.M.; Stapanian, M.A.; Knight, C.T.

2010-01-01

Catch rate (catch per hour) was examined for age-0 and age-1 yellow perch, Perca flavescens (Mitchill), captured in bottom trawls from 1991 to 2005 in western Lake Erie: (1) to examine variation of catch rate among years, seasons, diel periods and their interactions; and (2) to determine whether sampling during particular diel periods improved the management value of CPH data used in models to project abundance of age-2 yellow perch. Catch rate varied with year, season and the diel period during which sampling was conducted as well as by the interaction between year and season. Indices of abundance of age-0 and age-1 yellow perch estimated from night samples typically produced better fitting models and lower estimates of age-2 abundance than those using morning or afternoon samples, whereas indices using afternoon samples typically produced less precise and higher estimates of abundance. The diel period during which sampling is conducted will not affect observed population trends but may affect estimates of abundance of age-0 and age-1 yellow perch, which in turn affect recommended allowable harvest. A field experiment throughout western Lake Erie is recommended to examine potential benefits of night sampling to management of yellow perch. Published 2010. The article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Absorption Peaks: α, β, γ and Their Covariance with Age and Hemoglobin in Human Blood Samples Using Photoacoustic Spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Domínguez, J. L.; Hernández-Aguilar, C.; Domínguez-Pacheco, F. A.; Martínez-Ortiz, E.; Cruz-Orea, A.; Sánchez-Sinencio, F.

2012-11-01

This study reports the absorption peaks α, β, γ in the Soret band of photoacoustic (PA) signals and their covariance with age and hemoglobin in human blood samples through PA spectroscopy. Samples were taken randomly from a masculine population grouped in three categories according to age: infants, young adults, and senior adults. Samples were prepared with two drops of blood from a 0.5 mL insulin syringe with a needle gauge 31G over 5 mm circles of filter paper. It was observed that the PA signal, the amplitude as a function of the wavelength, has a behavior as that reported for human blood for the three absorption peaks α, β, γ. In particular, the ratio γ/ β is due to electronic transitions associated with charge-transfer interactions of iron orbitals with the ligand states. Through an evaluation of optical absorption peaks in blood samples and their covariance with age and hemoglobin concentration, a relationship was found for the ratio peaks γ/ β and γ/ α with such parameters. Specifically, a negative covariance in the Soret band of the ratio peaks γ/ β and γ/ α with respect to both age and hemoglobin was found. This showed a tendency in their behavior. Further experiments of different populations may corroborate these conclusions.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Metronidazole Evaluated Using Scavenged Samples from Preterm Infants

PubMed Central

Ouellet, Daniele; Smith, P. Brian; James, Laura P.; Ross, Ashley; Sullivan, Janice E.; Walsh, Michele C.; Zadell, Arlene; Newman, Nancy; White, Nicole R.; Kashuba, Angela D. M.; Benjamin, Daniel K.

2012-01-01

Pharmacokinetic (PK) studies in preterm infants are rarely conducted due to the research challenges posed by this population. To overcome these challenges, minimal-risk methods such as scavenged sampling can be used to evaluate the PK of commonly used drugs in this population. We evaluated the population PK of metronidazole using targeted sparse sampling and scavenged samples from infants that were ≤32 weeks of gestational age at birth and <120 postnatal days. A 5-center study was performed. A population PK model using nonlinear mixed-effect modeling (NONMEM) was developed. Covariate effects were evaluated based on estimated precision and clinical significance. Using the individual Bayesian PK estimates from the final population PK model and the dosing regimen used for each subject, the proportion of subjects achieving the therapeutic target of trough concentrations >8 mg/liter was calculated. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to evaluate the adequacy of different dosing recommendations per gestational age group. Thirty-two preterm infants were enrolled: the median (range) gestational age at birth was 27 (22 to 32) weeks, postnatal age was 41 (0 to 97) days, postmenstrual age (PMA) was 32 (24 to 43) weeks, and weight was 1,495 (678 to 3,850) g. The final PK data set contained 116 samples; 104/116 (90%) were scavenged from discarded clinical specimens. Metronidazole population PK was best described by a 1-compartment model. The population mean clearance (CL; liter/h) was determined as 0.0397 × (weight/1.5) × (PMA/32)2.49 using a volume of distribution (V) (liter) of 1.07 × (weight/1.5). The relative standard errors around parameter estimates ranged between 11% and 30%. On average, metronidazole concentrations in scavenged samples were 30% lower than those measured in scheduled blood draws. The majority of infants (>70%) met predefined pharmacodynamic efficacy targets. A new, simplified, postmenstrual-age-based dosing regimen is recommended for this

The revised Temperament and Character Inventory: normative data by sex and age from a Spanish normal randomized sample

PubMed Central

Labad, Javier; Martorell, Lourdes; Gaviria, Ana; Bayón, Carmen; Vilella, Elisabet; Cloninger, C. Robert

2015-01-01

Objectives. The psychometric properties regarding sex and age for the revised version of the Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI-R) and its derived short version, the Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI-140), were evaluated with a randomized sample from the community. Methods. A randomized sample of 367 normal adult subjects from a Spanish municipality, who were representative of the general population based on sex and age, participated in the current study. Descriptive statistics and internal consistency according to α coefficient were obtained for all of the dimensions and facets. T-tests and univariate analyses of variance, followed by Bonferroni tests, were conducted to compare the distributions of the TCI-R dimension scores by age and sex. Results. On both the TCI-R and TCI-140, women had higher scores for Harm Avoidance, Reward Dependence and Cooperativeness than men, whereas men had higher scores for Persistence. Age correlated negatively with Novelty Seeking, Reward Dependence and Cooperativeness and positively with Harm Avoidance and Self-transcendence. Young subjects between 18 and 35 years had higher scores than older subjects in NS and RD. Subjects between 51 and 77 years scored higher in both HA and ST. The alphas for the dimensions were between 0.74 and 0.87 for the TCI-R and between 0.63 and 0.83 for the TCI-140. Conclusion. Results, which were obtained with a randomized sample, suggest that there are specific distributions of personality traits by sex and age. Overall, both the TCI-R and the abbreviated TCI-140 were reliable in the ‘good-to-excellent’ range. A strength of the current study is the representativeness of the sample. PMID:26713237

Victimization, Suicidal Ideation, and Alcohol Use From Age 13 to 15 Years: Support for the Self-Medication Model

PubMed Central

Marschall-Lévesque, Shawn; Castellanos-Ryan, Natalie; Parent, Sophie; Renaud, Johanne; Vitaro, Frank; Boivin, Michel; Tremblay, Richard E.; Séguin, Jean R.

2017-01-01

Purpose Recent years have seen increased coverage of adolescent victimization and suicide. Both adolescent peer victimization and substance use have been associated with suicidal ideation, with evidence suggesting that all three factors are interrelated. There are at least four models which can explain the associations between these factors (i.e., self-medication, secondary mental disorder, bidirectional, and common factor). However, none of them is being empirically supported as the dominant model because few longitudinal studies have explored the association between these factors. Methods The present study compared longitudinal paths of all four models simultaneously using a cross-lagged model. This was done using self-reported measures of peer victimization, suicidal ideation, and alcohol use at age 13, 14, and 15 years in a longitudinal sample of 238 adolescents. Results All three variables were moderately stable across time. Significant cross-lagged associations were found, showing that frequent peer victimization at age 13 years was associated with higher odds of having suicidal ideation at age 14 years (odds ratio, 1.82; p < .05). In turn, presence of suicidal ideation at age 14 years was significantly associated with higher alcohol use frequency at age 15 years (β = .13; p < .05). Conclusions Results support previous literature suggesting that peer victimization predates alcohol use and extends it by showing clear directionality between suicidal ideation and alcohol use over 1 year, supporting the self-medication model. Clarifying the empirical basis of these underlying models could allow for earlier prevention strategies, by targeting the risk factor that appears the earliest in the model. PMID:27914973

Two means of sampling sexual minority women: how different are the samples of women?

PubMed

Boehmer, Ulrike; Clark, Melissa; Timm, Alison; Ozonoff, Al

2008-01-01

We compared 2 sampling approaches of sexual minority women in 1 limited geographic area to better understand the implications of these 2 sampling approaches. Sexual minority women identified through the Census did not differ on average age or the prevalence of raising children from those sampled using nonrandomized methods. Women in the convenience sample were better educated and lived in smaller households. Modeling the likelihood of disability in this population resulted in contradictory parameter estimates by sampling approach. The degree of variation observed both between sampling approaches and between different parameters suggests that the total population of sexual minority women is still unmeasured. Thoroughly constructed convenience samples will continue to be a useful sampling strategy to further research on this population.

Disruptive Mood Dysregulation Disorder Symptoms by Age in Autism, ADHD, and General Population Samples

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mayes, Susan Dickerson; Kokotovich, Cari; Mathiowetz, Christine; Baweja, Raman; Calhoun, Susan L.; Waxmonsky, James

2017-01-01

Disruptive mood dysregulation disorder (DMDD) is a controversial "DSM-5" diagnosis. It is not known how DMDD symptoms vary by age and if differences are similar for autism, ADHD, and general population samples. Our study analyzed the two DMDD symptoms (irritable-angry mood and temper outbursts) in 1,827 children with autism or ADHD (with…

The short-lived African turquoise killifish: an emerging experimental model for ageing.

PubMed

Kim, Yumi; Nam, Hong Gil; Valenzano, Dario Riccardo

2016-02-01

Human ageing is a fundamental biological process that leads to functional decay, increased risk for various diseases and, ultimately, death. Some of the basic biological mechanisms underlying human ageing are shared with other organisms; thus, animal models have been invaluable in providing key mechanistic and molecular insights into the common bases of biological ageing. In this Review, we briefly summarise the major applications of the most commonly used model organisms adopted in ageing research and highlight their relevance in understanding human ageing. We compare the strengths and limitations of different model organisms and discuss in detail an emerging ageing model, the short-lived African turquoise killifish. We review the recent progress made in using the turquoise killifish to study the biology of ageing and discuss potential future applications of this promising animal model. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

The short-lived African turquoise killifish: an emerging experimental model for ageing

PubMed Central

Kim, Yumi; Nam, Hong Gil; Valenzano, Dario Riccardo

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Human ageing is a fundamental biological process that leads to functional decay, increased risk for various diseases and, ultimately, death. Some of the basic biological mechanisms underlying human ageing are shared with other organisms; thus, animal models have been invaluable in providing key mechanistic and molecular insights into the common bases of biological ageing. In this Review, we briefly summarise the major applications of the most commonly used model organisms adopted in ageing research and highlight their relevance in understanding human ageing. We compare the strengths and limitations of different model organisms and discuss in detail an emerging ageing model, the short-lived African turquoise killifish. We review the recent progress made in using the turquoise killifish to study the biology of ageing and discuss potential future applications of this promising animal model. PMID:26839399

Age, memory type, and the phenomenology of autobiographical memory: findings from an Italian sample.

PubMed

Montebarocci, Ornella; Luchetti, Martina; Sutin, Angelina R

2014-01-01

The present research explored differences in phenomenology between two types of memories, a general self-defining memory and an earliest childhood memory. A sample of 76 Italian participants were selected and categorised into two age groups: 20-30 years and 31-40 years. The Memory Experiences Questionnaire (MEQ) was administered, taking note of latency and duration times of the narratives. Consistent with the literature, the self-defining memory differed significantly from the earliest childhood memory in terms of phenomenology, with the recency of the memory associated with more intense phenomenological experience. The self-defining memory took longer to retrieve and narrate than the earliest childhood memory. Meaningful differences also emerged between the two age groups: Participants in their 30s rated their self-defining memory as more vivid, coherent, and accessible than participants in their 20s. According to latency findings, these differences suggest an expanded period of identity consolidation for younger adults. Further applications of the MEQ should be carried out to replicate these results with other samples of young adults.

Socioeconomic, emotional, and physical execution variables as predictors of cognitive performance in a Spanish sample of middle-aged and older community-dwelling participants.

PubMed

González, Mari Feli; Facal, David; Juncos-Rabadán, Onésimo; Yanguas, Javier

2017-10-01

Cognitive performance is not easily predicted, since different variables play an important role in the manifestation of age-related declines. The objective of this study is to analyze the predictors of cognitive performance in a Spanish sample over 50 years from a multidimensional perspective, including socioeconomic, affective, and physical variables. Some of them are well-known predictors of cognition and others are emergent variables in the study of cognition. The total sample, drawn from the "Longitudinal Study Aging in Spain (ELES)" project, consisted of 832 individuals without signs of cognitive impairment. Cognitive function was measured with tests evaluating episodic and working memory, visuomotor speed, fluency, and naming. Thirteen independent variables were selected as predictors belonging to socioeconomic, emotional, and physical execution areas. Multiple linear regressions, following the enter method, were calculated for each age group in order to study the influence of these variables in cognitive performance. Education is the variable which best predicts cognitive performance in the 50-59, 60-69, and 70-79 years old groups. In the 80+ group, the best predictor is objective economic status and education does not enter in the model. Age-related decline can be modified by the influence of educational and socioeconomic variables. In this context, it is relevant to take into account how easy is to modify certain variables, compared to others which depend on each person's life course.

Age or stage structure? A comparison of dynamic outcomes from discrete age- and stage-structured population models.

PubMed

Wikan, Arild

2012-06-01

Discrete stage-structured density-dependent and discrete age-structured density-dependent population models are considered. Regarding the former, we prove that the model at hand is permanent (i.e., that the population will neither go extinct nor exhibit explosive oscillations) and given density dependent fecundity terms we also show that species with delayed semelparous life histories tend to be more stable than species which possess precocious semelparous life histories. Moreover, our findings together with results obtained from other stage-structured models seem to illustrate a fairly general ecological principle, namely that iteroparous species are more stable than semelparous species. Our analysis of various age-structured models does not necessarily support the conclusions above. In fact, species with precocious life histories now appear to possess better stability properties than species with delayed life histories, especially in the iteroparous case. We also show that there are dynamical outcomes from semelparous age-structured models which we are not able to capture in corresponding stage-structured cases. Finally, both age- and stage-structured population models may generate periodic dynamics of low period (either exact or approximate). The important prerequisite is to assume density-dependent survival probabilities.

Age dependent mortality in the pilocarpine model of status epilepticus

PubMed Central

Blair, Robert E.; Deshpande, Laxmikant S.; Holbert, William H.; Churn, Severn B.; DeLorenzo, Robert J.

2010-01-01

Status epilepticus (SE) is an acute neurological emergency associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Age has been shown to be a critical factor in determining outcome after SE. Understanding the causes of this increased mortality with aging by developing an animal model to study this condition would play a major role in studying mechanisms to limit the mortality due to SE. Here we employed pilocarpine to induce SE in rats aged between 5 to 28 weeks. Similar to clinical studies in man, we observed that age was a significant predictor of mortality following SE. While no deaths were observed in 5-week old animals, mortality due to SE increased progressively with age and reached 90% in 28-week old animals. There was no correlation between the age of animals and severity of SE. With increasing age mortality occurred earlier after the onset of SE. These results indicate that pilocarpine-induced SE in the rat provides a useful model to study age-dependent SE-induced mortality and indicates the importance of using animal models to elucidate the mechanisms contributing to SE-induced mortality and the development of novel therapeutic interventions to prevent SE-induced death. PMID:19429042

Age-dependent mortality in the pilocarpine model of status epilepticus.

PubMed

Blair, Robert E; Deshpande, Laxmikant S; Holbert, William H; Churn, Severn B; DeLorenzo, Robert J

2009-04-10

Status epilepticus (SE) is an acute neurological emergency associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Age has been shown to be a critical factor in determining outcome after SE. Understanding the causes of this increased mortality with aging by developing an animal model to study this condition would play a major role in studying mechanisms to limit the mortality due to SE. Here we employed pilocarpine to induce SE in rats aged between 5 and 28 weeks. Similar to clinical studies in man, we observed that age was a significant predictor of mortality following SE. While no deaths were observed in 5-week-old animals, mortality due to SE increased progressively with age and reached 90% in 28-week-old animals. There was no correlation between the age of animals and severity of SE. With increasing age mortality occurred earlier after the onset of SE. These results indicate that pilocarpine-induced SE in the rat provides a useful model to study age-dependent SE-induced mortality and indicates the importance of using animal models to elucidate the mechanisms contributing to SE-induced mortality and the development of novel therapeutic interventions to prevent SE-induced death.

Alcohol Use, Age, and Self-Rated Mental and Physical Health in a Community Sample of Lesbian and Bisexual Women.

PubMed

Veldhuis, Cindy B; Talley, Amelia E; Hancock, David W; Wilsnack, Sharon C; Hughes, Tonda L

2017-12-01

Given that self-perceptions of mental and physical health are important predictors of health outcomes and well-being, particularly among older adults, this study focuses on associations among age, alcohol consumption, and indicators of both self-rated mental health and self-rated physical health in a sample of sexual minority women (SMW). This study uses a community sample of SMW to examine the associations among age, drinking, and self-rated mental and physical health. Heavy drinking among older adult SMW (55+) was less prevalent than among young SMW, ages 18-25 and ages 26-39, but similar to rates reported among SMW ages 40-54. In addition, older SMW reported significantly higher levels of self-rated mental health, compared with SMW in the other age groups, but we found no significant associations between age and self-rated physical health. Across all age groups, moderate drinkers reported better self-rated physical health than alcohol abstainers. Overall, these results suggest that, among SMW, drinking does not decline as sharply with age as it does for heterosexual women in the general population. Given the current and projected increases in the aging population and the risks that heavy drinking presents for morbidity and mortality, interventions aimed at older SMW are needed.

Characterizing the relationship between age and venous thromboembolism in adult trauma patients: findings from the National Trauma Data Bank and the National Inpatient Sample.

PubMed

Nastasi, Anthony J; Canner, Joseph K; Lau, Brandyn D; Streiff, Michael B; Aboagye, Jonathan K; Kraus, Peggy S; Hobson, Deborah B; Van Arendonk, Kyle J; Haut, Elliott R

2017-08-01

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a tremendous burden in health care. However, current guidelines lack recommendations regarding the prevention of VTE in older adult trauma patients. Furthermore, the appropriate method of modeling of age in VTE models is currently unclear. Patients included in the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) between the years 2008 and 2014 and patients included in the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) between 2009 and 2013 were analyzed. Multiple logistic regression of VTE on age was performed. Of 3,598,881 patients in the NTDB, 34,202 (1.0%) were diagnosed with VTE compared to 5405 (1.1%) of the 505,231 patients in NIS. In both the fully adjusted NTDB and NIS model, age was positively associated with odds of VTE diagnosis under 65 years (NTDB, adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.018, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.017-1.019, P < 0.001; NIS, aOR: 1.025, 95% CI 1.022-1.027, P < 0.001). In patients aged ≥65 years, age was negatively associated with odds of VTE diagnosis in the NTDB (aOR: 0.995, 95% CI: 0.992-0.999, P = 0.006) but not in the NIS (aOR: 0.998, 95% CI 0.994-1.002, P = 0.26). Incidence of VTE among adult trauma patients steadily increases with age until 65 years, after which the odds of VTE appear to level off or even slightly decrease. These findings should be applied for improved modeling of VTE in trauma patients. The mechanism behind these findings should be explored before using them to update guidelines for standardized VTE prevention in older adults. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association between Caregiving, Meaning in Life, and Life Satisfaction beyond 50 in an Asian Sample: Age as a Moderator

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ang, Rebecca P.; O, Jiaqing

2012-01-01

The association between caregiving, meaning in life, and life satisfaction was examined in sample of 519 older Asian adults beyond 50 years of age. Two hierarchical multiple regression analyses were conducted to examine age as moderator of the associations between caregiving, meaning in life, and life satisfaction. Age moderated the association…

Pancreatic protective and hypoglycemic effects of Vitex agnus-castus L. fruit hydroalcoholic extract in D-galactose-induced aging mouse model

PubMed Central

Ahangarpour, Akram; Oroojan, Ali Akbar; Khorsandi, Layasadat; Najimi, Seyedeh Asma

2017-01-01

D-galactose induces pancreatic disorder along with aging mouse model. Vitex agnus-castus (VAC) has potential pancreatic protective effect. Hence, this study was designed to evaluate the hypoglycemic and pancreas protective effects of VAC hydroalcoholic extract in D-galactose-induced aging female mice. In the present experimental study, 72 adult female Naval Medical Research Institute (NMRI) mice (weighing 30–35 g) were divided into 6 groups of control, VAC hydroalcoholic extract, D-galactose, D-galactose + VAC hydroalcoholic extract, aged, aged + VAC hydroalcoholic extract. The aged model was prepared by subcutaneous injection of D-galactose for 45 days and, VAC hydroalcoholic extract was gavaged twice a day in the last 7 days. 24 h after the last drug and extract administrations, serum samples and pancreatic tissues were removed to evaluate experimental and histological determinations. Serum glucose level decreased in VAC, D-galactose and, aged-treated groups compared to the control (P < 0.05). Insulin level increased in VAC and decreased in D-galactose and aged VAC-treated mice compared to the control (P < 0.05). Homeostasis model assessment-estimated insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) increased in D-galactose, aging, and VAC hydroalcoholic extract groups (P < 0.05) and, administration of VAC hydroalcoholic extract improved HOMA-IR in D-galactose and aging treated animals. Despite the size of pancreatic islets decreased in aged and D-galactose groups, VAC administration recovered it. Present data showed that VAC hydroalcoholic extract has hypoglycemic and pancreatic protective effects in natural aged and aging model mice. PMID:28515766

Pancreatic protective and hypoglycemic effects of Vitex agnus-castus L. fruit hydroalcoholic extract in D-galactose-induced aging mouse model.

PubMed

Ahangarpour, Akram; Oroojan, Ali Akbar; Khorsandi, Layasadat; Najimi, Seyedeh Asma

2017-04-01

D-galactose induces pancreatic disorder along with aging mouse model. Vitex agnus-castus (VAC) has potential pancreatic protective effect. Hence, this study was designed to evaluate the hypoglycemic and pancreas protective effects of VAC hydroalcoholic extract in D-galactose-induced aging female mice. In the present experimental study, 72 adult female Naval Medical Research Institute (NMRI) mice (weighing 30-35 g) were divided into 6 groups of control, VAC hydroalcoholic extract, D-galactose, D-galactose + VAC hydroalcoholic extract, aged, aged + VAC hydroalcoholic extract. The aged model was prepared by subcutaneous injection of D-galactose for 45 days and, VAC hydroalcoholic extract was gavaged twice a day in the last 7 days. 24 h after the last drug and extract administrations, serum samples and pancreatic tissues were removed to evaluate experimental and histological determinations. Serum glucose level decreased in VAC, D-galactose and, aged-treated groups compared to the control ( P < 0.05). Insulin level increased in VAC and decreased in D-galactose and aged VAC-treated mice compared to the control ( P < 0.05). Homeostasis model assessment-estimated insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) increased in D-galactose, aging, and VAC hydroalcoholic extract groups ( P < 0.05) and, administration of VAC hydroalcoholic extract improved HOMA-IR in D-galactose and aging treated animals. Despite the size of pancreatic islets decreased in aged and D-galactose groups, VAC administration recovered it. Present data showed that VAC hydroalcoholic extract has hypoglycemic and pancreatic protective effects in natural aged and aging model mice.

Red blood cells open promising avenues for longitudinal studies of ageing in laboratory, non-model and wild animals.

PubMed

Stier, Antoine; Reichert, Sophie; Criscuolo, Francois; Bize, Pierre

2015-11-01

Ageing is characterized by a progressive deterioration of multiple physiological and molecular pathways, which impair organismal performance and increase risks of death with advancing age. Hence, ageing studies must identify physiological and molecular pathways that show signs of age-related deterioration, and test their association with the risk of death and longevity. This approach necessitates longitudinal sampling of the same individuals, and therefore requires a minimally invasive sampling technique that provides access to the larger spectrum of physiological and molecular pathways that are putatively associated with ageing. The present paper underlines the interest in using red blood cells (RBCs) as a promising target for longitudinal studies of ageing in vertebrates. RBCs provide valuable information on the following six pathways: cell maintenance and turnover (RBC number, size, and heterogeneity), glucose homeostasis (RBC glycated haemoglobin), oxidative stress parameters, membrane composition and integrity, mitochondrial functioning, and telomere dynamics. The last two pathways are specific to RBCs of non-mammalian species, which possess a nucleus and functional mitochondria. We present the current knowledge about RBCs and age-dependent changes in these pathways in non-model and wild species that are especially suitable to address questions related to ageing using longitudinal studies. We discuss how the different pathways relate with survival and lifespan and give information on their genetic and environmental determinants to appraise their evolutionary potential. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Novel polyglutamine model uncouples proteotoxicity from aging.

PubMed

Christie, Nakeirah T M; Lee, Amy L; Fay, Hannah G; Gray, Amelia A; Kikis, Elise A

2014-01-01

Polyglutamine expansions in certain proteins are the genetic determinants for nine distinct progressive neurodegenerative disorders and resultant age-related dementia. In these cases, neurodegeneration is due to the aggregation propensity and resultant toxic properties of the polyglutamine-containing proteins. We are interested in elucidating the underlying mechanisms of toxicity of the protein ataxin-3, in which a polyglutamine expansion is the genetic determinant for Machado-Joseph Disease (MJD), also referred to as spinocerebellar ataxia 3 (SCA3). To this end, we have developed a novel model for ataxin-3 protein aggregation, by expressing a disease-related polyglutamine-containing fragment of ataxin-3 in the genetically tractable body wall muscle cells of the model system C. elegans. Here, we demonstrate that this ataxin-3 fragment aggregates in a polyQ length-dependent manner in C. elegans muscle cells and that this aggregation is associated with cellular dysfunction. However, surprisingly, this aggregation and resultant toxicity was not influenced by aging. This is in contrast to polyglutamine peptides alone whose aggregation/toxicity is highly dependent on age. Thus, the data presented here not only describe a new polyglutamine model, but also suggest that protein context likely influences the cellular interactions of the polyglutamine-containing protein and thereby modulates its toxic properties.

Age determination of 15 old to intermediate-age small Magellanic cloud star clusters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parisi, M. C.; Clariá, J. J.; Piatti, A. E.

2014-04-01

We present color-magnitude diagrams in the V and I bands for 15 star clusters in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) based on data taken with the Very Large Telescope (VLT, Chile). We selected these clusters from our previous work, wherein we derived cluster radial velocities and metallicities from calcium II infrared triplet (CaT) spectra also taken with the VLT. We discovered that the ages of six of our clusters have been appreciably underestimated by previous studies, which used comparatively small telescopes, graphically illustrating the need for large apertures to obtain reliable ages of old and intermediate-age SMC star clusters. Inmore » particular, three of these clusters, L4, L6, and L110, turn out to be among the oldest SMC clusters known, with ages of 7.9 ± 1.1, 8.7 ± 1.2, and 7.6 ± 1.0 Gyr, respectively, helping to fill a possible 'SMC cluster age gap'. Using the current ages and metallicities from Parisi et al., we analyze the age distribution, age gradient, and age-metallicity relation (AMR) of a sample of SMC clusters measured homogeneously. There is a suggestion of bimodality in the age distribution but it does not show a constant slope for the first 4 Gyr, and we find no evidence for an age gradient. Due to the improved ages of our cluster sample, we find that our AMR is now better represented in the intermediate/old period than we had derived in Parisi et al., where we simply took ages available in the literature. Additionally, clusters younger than ∼4 Gyr now show better agreement with the bursting model of Pagel and Tautvaišienė, but we confirm that this model is not a good representation of the AMR during the intermediate/old period. A more complicated model is needed to explain the SMC chemical evolution in that period.« less

Sample locality map and analytical data for potassium-argon ages in the Port Moller, Stepovak Bay, and Simeonof Island quadrangles, Alaska Peninsula

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Frederic H.; Shew, Nora B.; DuBois, Gregory D.; Bie, Scott W.

1994-01-01

Potassium-argon age determinations for 84 volcanic, intrusive, and hydrothermally altered rocks from the Port Moller, Stepovak Bay, and Simeonof Island quadrangles are reported here. Of these age determinations, 78 samples were analyzed as part of Alaska Mineral Resource Assessment Program (AMRAP) studies in the Port Moller, Stepovak Bay, and Simeonof Island quadrangles. Age deter- minations for 6 of the samples have been previously published (Burk, 1965; Kienle and Turner, 1976; Wilson and others, 1981). This report consists of a sample location map, analytical data (table 1), and rock descriptions (table 2).

Psychometric properties of the Dresden Body Image Questionnaire: A multiple-group confirmatory factor analysis across sex and age in a Dutch non-clinical sample

PubMed Central

Scheffers, Mia; van Duijn, Marijtje A. J.; Bosscher, Ruud J.; Wiersma, Durk; Schoevers, Robert A.; van Busschbach, Jooske T.

2017-01-01

Background Body image has implications for psychosocial functioning and quality of life and its disturbance is reported in a broad range of psychiatric disorders. In view of the lack of instruments in Dutch measuring body image as a broad concept, we set out to make an instrument available that reflects the multidimensional character of this construct by including more dimensions than physical appearance. The Dresden Körperbildfragebogen (DBIQ, Dresden Body Image Questionnaire) particularly served this purpose. The DBIQ consists of 35 items and five subscales: body acceptance, sexual fulfillment, physical contact, vitality, and self-aggrandizement. The main objective of the present study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the Dutch translation of the Dresden Body Image Questionnaire (DBIQ-NL) in a non-clinical sample. Methods The psychometric properties of the DBIQ-NL were examined in a non-clinical sample of 988 respondents aged between 18 and 65. We investigated the subscales' internal consistency and test-retest reliability. In order to establish construct validity we evaluated the association with a related construct, body cathexis, and with indices of self-esteem and psychological wellbeing. The factor structure of the DBIQ-NL was examined via confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The equivalence of the measurement model across sex and age was evaluated by multiplegroup confirmatory factor analyses. Results Confirmatory factor analyses showed a structure in accordance with the original scale, where model fit was improved significantly by moving one item to another subscale. Multiple group confirmatory factor analysis across sex and age demonstrated partial strong invariance. Internal consistency was good with little overlap between the subscales. Temporal reliability and construct validity were satisfactory. Conclusion Results indicate that the DBIQ-NL is a reliable and valid instrument for non-clinical subjects. This provides a sound basis for

Trajectories of Delinquency from Age 14 to 23 in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth Sample

PubMed Central

Murphy, Debra A.; Brecht, Mary-Lynn; Huang, David; Herbeck, Diane M.

2012-01-01

This study utilized data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to investigate risk trajectories for delinquency and factors associated with different trajectories, particularly substance use. The sample (N = 8,984) was 49% female. A group-based trajectory model was applied, which identified four distinct trajectories for both males and females: (1) a High group with delinquency rates consistently higher than other groups, with some decrease across the age range; (2) a Decreased group, beginning at high levels with substantial decrease to near zero; (3) a Moderate group experiencing some decline but remaining at moderate rates of delinquency through most of the age range; and (4) a consistently Low group, having low rates of delinquency declining to near zero by mid- to late-teens. The Low group was distinguished by several protective factors, including higher rates of maternal authoritative parenting style, possible lower acculturation (higher rates of non-English spoken at home), higher rates of religious activity, later substance use initiation, lower rates of early delinquent activity, less early experience with neighborhood or personal violence, and higher rates of perceiving penalty for wrongdoing. Conversely, the High group was characterized by several vulnerability factors—essentially the converse of the protective factors above. PMID:23105164

The MiAge Calculator: a DNA methylation-based mitotic age calculator of human tissue types.

PubMed

Youn, Ahrim; Wang, Shuang

2018-01-01

Cell division is important in human aging and cancer. The estimation of the number of cell divisions (mitotic age) of a given tissue type in individuals is of great interest as it allows not only the study of biological aging (using a new molecular aging target) but also the stratification of prospective cancer risk. Here, we introduce the MiAge Calculator, a mitotic age calculator based on a novel statistical framework, the MiAge model. MiAge is designed to quantitatively estimate mitotic age (total number of lifetime cell divisions) of a tissue using the stochastic replication errors accumulated in the epigenetic inheritance process during cell divisions. With the MiAge model, the MiAge Calculator was built using the training data of DNA methylation measures of 4,020 tumor and adjacent normal tissue samples from eight TCGA cancer types and was tested using the testing data of DNA methylation measures of 2,221 tumor and adjacent normal tissue samples of five other TCGA cancer types. We showed that within each of the thirteen cancer types studied, the estimated mitotic age is universally accelerated in tumor tissues compared to adjacent normal tissues. Across the thirteen cancer types, we showed that worse cancer survivals are associated with more accelerated mitotic age in tumor tissues. Importantly, we demonstrated the utility of mitotic age by showing that the integration of mitotic age and clinical information leads to improved survival prediction in six out of the thirteen cancer types studied. The MiAge Calculator is available at http://www.columbia.edu/∼sw2206/softwares.htm .

Implementation of an active aging model in Mexico for prevention and control of chronic diseases in the elderly.

PubMed

Mendoza-Núñez, Víctor Manuel; Martínez-Maldonado, María de la Luz; Correa-Muñoz, Elsa

2009-08-26

World Health Organization cites among the main challenges of populational aging the dual disease burden: the greater risk of disability, and the need for care. In this sense, the most frequent chronic diseases during old age worldwide are high blood pressure, type 2 diabetes mellitus, cancer, arthritis, osteoporosis, depression, and dementia. Chronic disease-associated dependency represents an onerous sanitary and financial burden for the older adult, the family, and the health care system. Thus, it is necessary to propose community-level models for chronic disease prevention and control in old age. The aim of the present work is to show our experience in the development and implementation of a model for chronic disease prevention and control in old age at the community level under the active aging paradigm. A longitudinal study will be carried out in a sample of 400 elderly urban and rural-dwelling individuals residing in Hidalgo State, Mexico during five years. All participants will be enrolled in the model active aging. This establishes the formation of 40 gerontological promoters (GPs) from among the older adults themselves. The GPs function as mutual-help group coordinators (gerontological nuclei) and establish self-care and self-promotion actions for elderly well-being and social development. It will be conformed a big-net of social network of 40 mutual-help groups of ten elderly adults each one, in which self-care is a daily practice for chronic disease prevention and control, as well as for achieving maximal well-being and life quality in old age. Indicators of the model's impact will be (i) therapeutic adherence; (ii) the incidence of the main chronic diseases in old age; (iii) life expectancy without chronic diseases at 60 years of age; (iv) disability adjusted life years lost; (v) years of life lost due to premature mortality, and (vi) years lived with disability. We propose that the implementation of the model active aging framework will permits the

Predictive Factors of Regular Physical Activity among Middle-Aged Women in the West of Iran, Hamadan: Application of PRECEDE Model.

PubMed

Emdadi, Shohreh; Hazavehie, Seyed Mohammad Mehdi; Soltanian, Alireza; Bashirian, Saeed; Heidari Moghadam, Rashid

2015-01-01

Regular physical activity is important for midlife women. Models and theories help better understanding this behavior among middle-aged women and better planning for change behavior in target group. This study aimed to investigate predictive factors of regular physical activity among middle-aged women based on PRECEDE model as a theoretical framework. This descriptive-analytical study was performed on 866 middle-aged women of Hamadan City western Iran, recruited with a proportional stratified sampling method in 2015. The participants completed a self-administered questionnaire including questions on demographic characteristics and PRECEDE model constructs and IPAQ questionnaire. Data were then analyzed by SPSS-16 and AMOS-16 using the Pearson correlation test and the pathway analysis method. Overall, 57% of middle-aged women were inactive (light level) or not sufficiently active. With SEM (Structural Equation Modeling) analysis, knowledge b=0.84, P<0.001, attitude b=0.799, P<0.001, self-efficacy b=0.633, P<0.001 as predisposing factor and social support as reinforcing factor b=0.2, P<0.001 were the most important predictors for physical activity among middle-aged women in Hamadan. The framework of the PRECEDE model is useful in understanding regular physical activity among middle-aged women. Furthermore, results showed the importance of predisposing and reinforcing factors when planning educational interventions.

A living model for obesity and aging research: Caenorhabditis elegans.

PubMed

Shen, Peiyi; Yue, Yiren; Park, Yeonhwa

2018-03-24

Caenorhabditis elegans (C. elegans) is a free-living nematode that has been extensively utilized as an animal model for research involving aging and neurodegenerative diseases, like Alzheimer's and Parkinson's, etc. Compared with traditional animal models, this small nematode possesses many benefits, such as small body size, short lifespan, completely sequenced genome, and more than 65% of the genes associated with human disease. All these characteristics make this organism an ideal living system for obesity and aging studies. This review gives a brief introduction of C. elegans as an animal model, highlights some advantages of research using this model and describes methods to evaluate the effect of treatments on obesity and aging of this organism.

Comparison of DSM-IV Symptoms in Elementary School-Age Children with PDD versus Clinic and Community Samples

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gadow, Kenneth D.; Devincent, Carla J.; Pomeroy, John; Azizian, Allen

2005-01-01

This study compares DSM-IV symptoms in children (ages 6 to 12 years) with pervasive developmental disorder (PDD), clinic controls, and community-based samples. Parents/teachers completed the Child Symptom Inventory-4 for four samples: PDD (N= 284/284) and non-PDD psychiatric clinic referrals (N= 189/181) and pupils in regular (N= 385/404) and…

Autophagy drives epidermal deterioration in a Drosophila model of tissue aging.

PubMed

Scherfer, Christoph; Han, Violet C; Wang, Yan; Anderson, Aimee E; Galko, Michael J

2013-04-01

Organismal lifespan has been the primary readout in aging research. However, how longevity genes control tissue-specific aging remains an open question. To examine the crosstalk between longevity programs and specific tissues during aging, biomarkers of organ-specific aging are urgently needed. Since the earliest signs of aging occur in the skin, we sought to examine skin aging in a genetically tractable model. Here we introduce a Drosophila model of skin aging. The epidermis undergoes a dramatic morphological deterioration with age that includes membrane and nuclear loss. These changes were decelerated in a long-lived mutant and accelerated in a short-lived mutant. An increase in autophagy markers correlated with epidermal aging. Finally, the epidermis of Atg7 mutants retained younger characteristics, suggesting that autophagy is a critical driver of epidermal aging. This is surprising given that autophagy is generally viewed as protective during aging. Since Atg7 mutants are short-lived, the deceleration of epidermal aging in this mutant suggests that in the epidermis healthspan can be uncoupled from longevity. Because the aging readout we introduce here has an early onset and is easily visualized, genetic dissection using our model should identify other novel mechanisms by which lifespan genes feed into tissue-specific aging.

[Cognitive advantages of the third age: a neural network model of brain aging].

PubMed

Karpenko, M P; Kachalova, L M; Budilova, E V; Terekhin, A T

2009-01-01

We consider a neural network model of age-related cognitive changes in aging brain based on Hopfield network with a sigmoid function of neuron activation. Age is included in the activation function as a parameter in the form of exponential rate denominator, which makes it possible to take into account the weakening of interneuronal links really observed in the aging brain. Analysis of properties of the Lyapunov function associated with the network shows that, with increasing parameter of age, its relief becomes smoother and the number of local minima (network attractors) decreases. As a result, the network gets less frequently stuck in the nearest local minima of the Lyapunov function and reaches a global minimum corresponding to the most effective solution of the cognitive task. It is reasonable to assume that similar changes really occur in the aging brain. Phenomenologically, these changes can be manifested as emergence in aged people of a cognitive quality such as wisdom i.e. ability to find optimal decisions in difficult controversial situations, to distract from secondary aspects and to see the problem as a whole.

Correcting Model Fit Criteria for Small Sample Latent Growth Models with Incomplete Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNeish, Daniel; Harring, Jeffrey R.

2017-01-01

To date, small sample problems with latent growth models (LGMs) have not received the amount of attention in the literature as related mixed-effect models (MEMs). Although many models can be interchangeably framed as a LGM or a MEM, LGMs uniquely provide criteria to assess global data-model fit. However, previous studies have demonstrated poor…

Dental age estimation in Japanese individuals combining permanent teeth and third molars.

PubMed

Ramanan, Namratha; Thevissen, Patrick; Fleuws, Steffen; Willems, G

2012-12-01

The study aim was, firstly, to verify the Willems et al. model on a Japanese reference sample. Secondly to develop a Japanese reference model based on the Willems et al. method and to verify it. Thirdly to analyze the age prediction performance adding tooth development information of third molars to permanent teeth. Retrospectively 1877 panoramic radiographs were selected in the age range between 1 and 23 years (1248 children, 629 sub-adults). Dental development was registered applying Demirjian 's stages of the mandibular left permanent teeth in children and Köhler stages on the third molars. The children's data were, firstly, used to validate the Willems et al. model (developed a Belgian reference sample), secondly, split ino a training and a test sample. On the training sample a Japanese reference model was developed based on the Willems method. The developed model and the Willems et al; model were verified on the test sample. Regression analysis was used to detect the age prediction performance adding third molar scores to permanent tooth scores. The validated Willems et al. model provided a mean absolute error of 0.85 and 0.75 years in females and males, respectively. The mean absolute error in the verified Willems et al. and the developed Japanese reference model was 0.85, 0.77 and 0.79, 0.75 years in females and males, respectively. On average a negligible change in root mean square error values was detected adding third molar scores to permanent teeth scores. The Belgian sample could be used as a reference model to estimate the age of the Japanese individuals. Combining information from the third molars and permanent teeth was not providing clinically significant improvement of age predictions based on permanent teeth information alone.

Aging and Confidence Judgments in Item Recognition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Voskuilen, Chelsea; Ratcliff, Roger; McKoon, Gail

2018-01-01

We examined the effects of aging on performance in an item-recognition experiment with confidence judgments. A model for confidence judgments and response time (RTs; Ratcliff & Starns, 2013) was used to fit a large amount of data from a new sample of older adults and a previously reported sample of younger adults. This model of confidence…

An agent-based computational model for tuberculosis spreading on age-structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graciani Rodrigues, C. C.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

2015-06-01

In this work we present an agent-based computational model to study the spreading of the tuberculosis (TB) disease on age-structured populations. The model proposed is a merge of two previous models: an agent-based computational model for the spreading of tuberculosis and a bit-string model for biological aging. The combination of TB with the population aging, reproduces the coexistence of health states, as seen in real populations. In addition, the universal exponential behavior of mortalities curves is still preserved. Finally, the population distribution as function of age shows the prevalence of TB mostly in elders, for high efficacy treatments.

Linear model correction: A method for transferring a near-infrared multivariate calibration model without standard samples.

PubMed

Liu, Yan; Cai, Wensheng; Shao, Xueguang

2016-12-05

Calibration transfer is essential for practical applications of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy because the measurements of the spectra may be performed on different instruments and the difference between the instruments must be corrected. For most of calibration transfer methods, standard samples are necessary to construct the transfer model using the spectra of the samples measured on two instruments, named as master and slave instrument, respectively. In this work, a method named as linear model correction (LMC) is proposed for calibration transfer without standard samples. The method is based on the fact that, for the samples with similar physical and chemical properties, the spectra measured on different instruments are linearly correlated. The fact makes the coefficients of the linear models constructed by the spectra measured on different instruments are similar in profile. Therefore, by using the constrained optimization method, the coefficients of the master model can be transferred into that of the slave model with a few spectra measured on slave instrument. Two NIR datasets of corn and plant leaf samples measured with different instruments are used to test the performance of the method. The results show that, for both the datasets, the spectra can be correctly predicted using the transferred partial least squares (PLS) models. Because standard samples are not necessary in the method, it may be more useful in practical uses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Latent spatial models and sampling design for landscape genetics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Knick, Steven T.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Fike, Jennifer A.; Cross, Todd B.; Schwartz, Michael K.

2016-01-01

We propose a spatially-explicit approach for modeling genetic variation across space and illustrate how this approach can be used to optimize spatial prediction and sampling design for landscape genetic data. We propose a multinomial data model for categorical microsatellite allele data commonly used in landscape genetic studies, and introduce a latent spatial random effect to allow for spatial correlation between genetic observations. We illustrate how modern dimension reduction approaches to spatial statistics can allow for efficient computation in landscape genetic statistical models covering large spatial domains. We apply our approach to propose a retrospective spatial sampling design for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) population genetics in the western United States.

Active Aging in Very Old Age and the Relevance of Psychological Aspects.

PubMed

Paúl, Constança; Teixeira, Laetitia; Ribeiro, Oscar

2017-01-01

Active aging encompasses a socially and individually designed mix of different domains that range from personal and familial, to social and professional. In being a key policy concept often focused on the young-old individuals, efforts in studying its dimensions in advanced ages have seldom been made. Nevertheless, there is a recognized need to promote adequate responses to the growing number of individuals reaching advanced ages and to recognize their specific dependability on health-related aspects, services attendance, social interactions, or on psychological characteristics for what it means to "age actively." This study provides a secondary analysis of data and follows the preceding work on the operationalization of the World Health Organization's (WHO) active aging model by means of an assessment protocol to measure which variables, within the model's determinants, contribute the most for an active aging process (1). Authors used the achieved model (composed by six factors: health, psychological component, cognitive performance, social relationships, biological component, and personality) and performed multi-group analysis of structural invariance to examine hypothetical differences between age groups (<75 years vs. ≥75 years) and to contrast obtained findings with the originally achieved model for the total sample (1,322 individuals aged 55 +). The structural covariances for the two age groups were statistically different. The comparison of components between age groups revealed a major relevance of the psychological component for the older age group. These findings reinforce the importance of psychological functioning in active aging in oldest old, and the need for further research on specific psychological features underlying the subjective meaning of active aging in more advanced ages.

Victimization, Suicidal Ideation, and Alcohol Use From Age 13 to 15 Years: Support for the Self-Medication Model.

PubMed

Marschall-Lévesque, Shawn; Castellanos-Ryan, Natalie; Parent, Sophie; Renaud, Johanne; Vitaro, Frank; Boivin, Michel; Tremblay, Richard E; Séguin, Jean R

2017-04-01

Recent years have seen increased coverage of adolescent victimization and suicide. Both adolescent peer victimization and substance use have been associated with suicidal ideation, with evidence suggesting that all three factors are interrelated. There are at least four models which can explain the associations between these factors (i.e., self-medication, secondary mental disorder, bidirectional, and common factor). However, none of them is being empirically supported as the dominant model because few longitudinal studies have explored the association between these factors. The present study compared longitudinal paths of all four models simultaneously using a cross-lagged model. This was done using self-reported measures of peer victimization, suicidal ideation, and alcohol use at age 13, 14, and 15 years in a longitudinal sample of 238 adolescents. All three variables were moderately stable across time. Significant cross-lagged associations were found, showing that frequent peer victimization at age 13 years was associated with higher odds of having suicidal ideation at age 14 years (odds ratio, 1.82; p < .05). In turn, presence of suicidal ideation at age 14 years was significantly associated with higher alcohol use frequency at age 15 years (β = .13; p < .05). Results support previous literature suggesting that peer victimization predates alcohol use and extends it by showing clear directionality between suicidal ideation and alcohol use over 1 year, supporting the self-medication model. Clarifying the empirical basis of these underlying models could allow for earlier prevention strategies, by targeting the risk factor that appears the earliest in the model. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An improved model to estimate trapping parameters in polymeric materials and its application on normal and aged low-density polyethylenes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Ning, E-mail: nl4g12@soton.ac.uk; He, Miao; Alghamdi, Hisham

2015-08-14

Trapping parameters can be considered as one of the important attributes to describe polymeric materials. In the present paper, a more accurate charge dynamics model has been developed, which takes account of charge dynamics in both volts-on and off stage into simulation. By fitting with measured charge data with the highest R-square value, trapping parameters together with injection barrier of both normal and aged low-density polyethylene samples were estimated using the improved model. The results show that, after long-term ageing process, the injection barriers of both electrons and holes is lowered, overall trap depth is shallower, and trap density becomesmore » much greater. Additionally, the changes in parameters for electrons are more sensitive than those of holes after ageing.« less

Assessing fundamental motor skills in Belgian children aged 3-8 years highlights differences to US reference sample.

PubMed

Bardid, Farid; Huyben, Floris; Lenoir, Matthieu; Seghers, Jan; De Martelaer, Kristine; Goodway, Jacqueline D; Deconinck, Frederik J A

2016-06-01

This study aimed to understand the fundamental motor skills (FMS) of Belgian children using the process-oriented Test of Gross Motor Development, Second Edition (TGMD-2) and to investigate the suitability of using the United States (USA) test norms in Belgium. FMS were assessed using the TGMD-2. Gender, age and motor performance were examined in 1614 Belgian children aged 3-8 years (52.1% boys) and compared with the US reference sample. More proficient FMS performance was found with increasing age, from 3 to 6 years for locomotor skills and 3 to 7 years for object control skills. Gender differences were observed in object control skills, with boys performing better than girls. In general, Belgian children had lower levels of motor competence than the US reference sample, specifically for object control skills. The score distribution of the Belgian sample was skewed, with 37.4% scoring below average and only 6.9% scoring above average. This study supported the usefulness of the TGMD-2 as a process-oriented instrument to measure gross motor development in early childhood in Belgium. However, it also demonstrated that caution is warranted when using the US reference norms. ©2016 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Parental Age and the Effectiveness of Modeled Behavior and Modeling Cues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kearney, Deborah; And Others

A two-group independent design was employed to study the relationship between parental age and modeling effectiveness. Subjects were 50 mother-father-child triads. The child's baseline data was recorded on a task that involved constructing a specified geometric shape on a pegboard. Then the child was asked to construct another shape modeling his…

An Age-Structured Extension to the Vectorial Capacity Model

PubMed Central

Novoseltsev, Vasiliy N.; Michalski, Anatoli I.; Novoseltseva, Janna A.; Yashin, Anatoliy I.; Carey, James R.; Ellis, Alicia M.

2012-01-01

Background Vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number (R0) have been instrumental in structuring thinking about vector-borne pathogen transmission and how best to prevent the diseases they cause. One of the more important simplifying assumptions of these models is age-independent vector mortality. A growing body of evidence indicates that insect vectors exhibit age-dependent mortality, which can have strong and varied affects on pathogen transmission dynamics and strategies for disease prevention. Methodology/Principal Findings Based on survival analysis we derived new equations for vectorial capacity and R0 that are valid for any pattern of age-dependent (or age–independent) vector mortality and explore the behavior of the models across various mortality patterns. The framework we present (1) lays the groundwork for an extension and refinement of the vectorial capacity paradigm by introducing an age-structured extension to the model, (2) encourages further research on the actuarial dynamics of vectors in particular and the relationship of vector mortality to pathogen transmission in general, and (3) provides a detailed quantitative basis for understanding the relative impact of reductions in vector longevity compared to other vector-borne disease prevention strategies. Conclusions/Significance Accounting for age-dependent vector mortality in estimates of vectorial capacity and R0 was most important when (1) vector densities are relatively low and the pattern of mortality can determine whether pathogen transmission will persist; i.e., determines whether R0 is above or below 1, (2) vector population growth rate is relatively low and there are complex interactions between birth and death that differ fundamentally from birth-death relationships with age-independent mortality, and (3) the vector exhibits complex patterns of age-dependent mortality and R0∼1. A limiting factor in the construction and evaluation of new age-dependent mortality models is the

Predicting and retrodicting intelligence between childhood and old age in the 6-Day Sample of the Scottish Mental Survey 1947.

PubMed

Deary, Ian J; Brett, Caroline E

2015-01-01

In studies of cognitive ageing it is useful and important to know how stable are the individual differences in cognitive ability from childhood to older age, and also to be able to estimate (retrodict) prior cognitive ability differences from those in older age. Here we contribute to these aims with new data from a follow-up study of the 6-Day Sample of the Scottish Mental Survey of 1947 (original N = 1208). The sample had cognitive, educational, social, and occupational data collected almost annually from age 11 to 27 years. Whereas previous long-term follow-up studies of the Scottish mental surveys are based upon group-administered cognitive tests at a mean age of 11 years, the present sample each had an individually-administered revised Binet test. We traced them for vital status in older age, and some agreed to take several mental tests at age 77 years (N = 131). The National Adult Reading Test at age 77 correlated .72 with the Terman-Merrill revision of the Binet Test at age 11. Adding the Moray House Test No. 12 score from age 11 and educational information took the multiple R to .81 between youth and older age. The equivalent multiple R for fluid general intelligence was .57. When the NART from age 77 was the independent variable (retrodictor) along with educational attainment, the multiple R with the Terman-Merrill IQ at age 11 was .75. No previous studies of the stability of intelligence from childhood to old age, or of the power of the NART to retrodict prior intelligence, have had individually-administered IQ data from youth. About two-thirds, at least, of the variation in verbal ability in old age can be captured by cognitive and educational information from youth. Non-verbal ability is less well predicted. A short test of pronunciation-the NART-and brief educational information can capture well over half of the variation in IQ scores obtained 66 years earlier.

Predicting and retrodicting intelligence between childhood and old age in the 6-Day Sample of the Scottish Mental Survey 1947

PubMed Central

Deary, Ian J.; Brett, Caroline E.

2015-01-01

In studies of cognitive ageing it is useful and important to know how stable are the individual differences in cognitive ability from childhood to older age, and also to be able to estimate (retrodict) prior cognitive ability differences from those in older age. Here we contribute to these aims with new data from a follow-up study of the 6-Day Sample of the Scottish Mental Survey of 1947 (original N = 1208). The sample had cognitive, educational, social, and occupational data collected almost annually from age 11 to 27 years. Whereas previous long-term follow-up studies of the Scottish mental surveys are based upon group-administered cognitive tests at a mean age of 11 years, the present sample each had an individually-administered revised Binet test. We traced them for vital status in older age, and some agreed to take several mental tests at age 77 years (N = 131). The National Adult Reading Test at age 77 correlated .72 with the Terman–Merrill revision of the Binet Test at age 11. Adding the Moray House Test No. 12 score from age 11 and educational information took the multiple R to .81 between youth and older age. The equivalent multiple R for fluid general intelligence was .57. When the NART from age 77 was the independent variable (retrodictor) along with educational attainment, the multiple R with the Terman–Merrill IQ at age 11 was .75. No previous studies of the stability of intelligence from childhood to old age, or of the power of the NART to retrodict prior intelligence, have had individually-administered IQ data from youth. About two-thirds, at least, of the variation in verbal ability in old age can be captured by cognitive and educational information from youth. Non-verbal ability is less well predicted. A short test of pronunciation—the NART—and brief educational information can capture well over half of the variation in IQ scores obtained 66 years earlier. PMID:26207078

Morphology and Relative Age Modeling of Explosive craters in the Tatun Volcano Group, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, Chen-Kan; Song, Sheng-Rong

2017-04-01

The Tatun Volcano Group (TVG) is located in the north of Taipei city for only 15 km away, and has been argued whether it is active or not for a long time. The Chihsingshan volcano is covered by many gas fumaroles and hot springs and is viewed as a relatively younger volcano of the TVG. Furthermore, using high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) can easily identify two apparent fault zones (or rifting valleys) with many craters, which pass through the eastern and the western edifice of Chihsingshan volcano, respectively. Shapes of those craters are nearly circular or elliptic, probably stand for the young eruptive events. This study utilizes 1 m x 1 m LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) DEM to investigate the small craters along the fault zones. The boundaries encompassing the crater were depicted by their steep slope, especially the intact ones. Eight and six craters have been determined from western and eastern side, and two and three of them are more intact, respectively. Numerous fractures exist in the linear extent are similar to the fault zones, but the morphology was destroyed by the downstream river system. The results of fractal dimensions analysis, a statistic method that tells the broken level of the shapes, may correlate with the age of those craters. Previous studies have proven this modeling method can fit the lava flow sequences of the TVG. Hence we try to find a suitable age modeling for the explosive craters in the same way, and then we can compare different ones for relative age and focus on the youngest one. In addition, field sampling at the craters such as Duck Pond and Dream Lake may be ideal archives of volcanic deposits from young volcanic events. With the combinations of LiDAR-DEM, fractal dimensions analysis and field sampling results, we could figure out the formation sequence of the craters.

Advanced flight design systems subsystem performance models. Sample model: Environmental analysis routine library

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parker, K. C.; Torian, J. G.

1980-01-01

A sample environmental control and life support model performance analysis using the environmental analysis routines library is presented. An example of a complete model set up and execution is provided. The particular model was synthesized to utilize all of the component performance routines and most of the program options.

Adverse Childhood Experiences and ADHD Diagnosis at Age 9 Years in a National Urban Sample.

PubMed

Jimenez, Manuel E; Wade, Roy; Schwartz-Soicher, Ofira; Lin, Yong; Reichman, Nancy E

To examine associations between adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) at age 9 years using longitudinal data and assess the extent to which ACEs during middle childhood are independently associated with ADHD at age 9 years. We conducted a secondary analysis of data from the Fragile Families urban birth cohort 5- and 9-year interviews. The sample was limited to children for whom mothers were the primary caregiver and mother-reported information on 8 ACEs and ADHD were available at age 5 and 9 years. We examined associations between ACEs and parent-reported ADHD at age 9 years using logistic regression and controlling for potential confounders. We included 1572 children; 48% were African American, 11% had parent-reported ADHD at age 9 years, 41% and 42% experienced ≥1 ACE by age 5 years and between the ages of 5 and 9 years, respectively. ACEs before age 5 years were associated with ADHD at age 9 years. One, 2, and ≥3 ACEs between age 5 and 9 years were associated with ADHD at age 9 years even after controlling for ACEs before age 5 years and ADHD at age 5 years (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-3; AOR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.2-3.8; and AOR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.1-4.3). In this study of urban children, ACEs occurring before age 5 years as well as between the ages of 5 and 9 years were associated with ADHD at age 9 years. Even after controlling for early childhood ACEs and ADHD at age 5 years, the association between ADHD and ACEs in middle childhood remained significant, highlighting the importance of screening and intervention throughout childhood. Copyright © 2016 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ages and transit times as important diagnostics of model performance for predicting C allocation in ecosystem models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceballos-Núñez, Verónika; Richardson, Andrew; Sierra, Carlos

2017-04-01

The global carbon cycle is strongly controlled by the source/sink strength of vegetation as well as the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to retain this carbon. However, it is uncertain how some vegetation dynamics such as the allocation of carbon to different ecosystem compartments should be represented in models. The assumptions behind model structures may result in highly divergent model predictions. Here, we asses model performance by calculating the age of the carbon in the system and in each compartment, and the overall transit time of C in the system. We used these diagnostics to assess the influence of three different carbon allocation schemes on the rates of C cycling in vegetation. First, we used published measurements of ecosystem C compartments from the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site to find the best set of parameters for the different model structures. Second, we calculated C stocks, respiration fluxes, radiocarbon values, ages, and transit times. We found a good fit of the three model structures to the available data, but the time series of C in foliage and wood need to be complemented with other ecosystem compartments in order to reduce the high parameter collinearity that we observed and reduce model equifinality. Differences in model structures had a small impact on predicting ecosystem C compartments, but overall they resulted in very different predictions of age and transit time distributions. In particular, the inclusion of a storage compartment had an important impact on predicting system ages and transit times. In the case of the models with 1 or 2 storage compartments, the age of carbon in the system and in each of the compartments was distributed more towards younger ages than in the model that had no storage; the mean system age of these two models with storage was 80 years younger than in the model without storage. As expected from these age distributions, the mean transit time for the two models with storage compartments

Sworn testimony of the model evidence: Gaussian Mixture Importance (GAME) sampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volpi, Elena; Schoups, Gerrit; Firmani, Giovanni; Vrugt, Jasper A.

2017-07-01

What is the "best" model? The answer to this question lies in part in the eyes of the beholder, nevertheless a good model must blend rigorous theory with redeeming qualities such as parsimony and quality of fit. Model selection is used to make inferences, via weighted averaging, from a set of K candidate models, Mk; k=>(1,…,K>), and help identify which model is most supported by the observed data, Y>˜=>(y˜1,…,y˜n>). Here, we introduce a new and robust estimator of the model evidence, p>(Y>˜|Mk>), which acts as normalizing constant in the denominator of Bayes' theorem and provides a single quantitative measure of relative support for each hypothesis that integrates model accuracy, uncertainty, and complexity. However, p>(Y>˜|Mk>) is analytically intractable for most practical modeling problems. Our method, coined GAussian Mixture importancE (GAME) sampling, uses bridge sampling of a mixture distribution fitted to samples of the posterior model parameter distribution derived from MCMC simulation. We benchmark the accuracy and reliability of GAME sampling by application to a diverse set of multivariate target distributions (up to 100 dimensions) with known values of p>(Y>˜|Mk>) and to hypothesis testing using numerical modeling of the rainfall-runoff transformation of the Leaf River watershed in Mississippi, USA. These case studies demonstrate that GAME sampling provides robust and unbiased estimates of the evidence at a relatively small computational cost outperforming commonly used estimators. The GAME sampler is implemented in the MATLAB package of DREAM and simplifies considerably scientific inquiry through hypothesis testing and model selection.

New Ages for Gorgona Island, Colombia: Implications for Previous Petrogenetic and Tectonic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serrano Duran, L.; Lopez Martinez, M.; Ferrari, L.

2007-05-01

reliable plateau and/or isochron ages. Only one basaltic sample, located in the western coast, yielded an age comparable with those previously reported in the literature. For two basalts intercalated with komatiites and a gabbro exposed in the north-eastern coast of the island we obtained younger ages, similar to those reported for some mafic and ultramafic rocks along the Pacific coast of Colombia. The two sets of ages for the ultramafic suite of Gorgona also correspond to different petrologic types. The depleted rocks in the eastern coast are younger than the enriched basalts and picrites located in the southern and western part of the island with ages around 90 Ma, suggesting a more complex tectonic evolution with the accretion of at least two different blocks. This eventually questions the "single plume" model for the formation of the Gorgona Island plateau.

The Development of a New Analytical Model for the Identification of Saccharide Binders in Paint Samples

PubMed Central

Restivo, Annalaura; Colombini, Maria Perla; Bonaduce, Ilaria

2012-01-01

This paper describes a method for reliably identifying saccharide materials in paintings. Since the 3rd millennium B.C., polysaccharide materials such as plant gums, sugar, flour, and honey were used as binding media and sizing agents in paintings, illuminated manuscripts, and polychrome objects. Although it has been reported that plant gums have a stable composition, their identification in paint samples is often doubtful and rarely discussed. Our research was carried out independently at two different laboratories: the Getty Conservation Institute in Los Angeles, USA (GCI) and the Department of Chemistry and Industrial Chemistry of the University of Pisa, Italy (DCCI). It was shown in a previous stage of this research that the two methods give highly comparable data when analysing both reference paint samples and paint layers from art objects, thus the combined data was used to build a large database. In this study, the simultaneous presence of proteinaceous binders and pigments in fresh and artificially aged paint replicas was investigated, and it highlighted how these can affect the sugar profile of arabic, tragacanth, and fruit tree gums. The environmental contamination due to sugars from various plant tissues is also discussed. The results allowed the development of a new model for the reliable identification of saccharide binders in paintings based on the evaluation of markers that are stable to ageing and unaffected by pigments. This new model was applied to the sugar profiles obtained from the analysis of a large number of samples from murals, easel paintings, manuscripts, and polychrome objects from different geographical areas and dating from the 13th century BC to the 20th century AD, thus demonstrating its reliability. PMID:23166654

The development of a new analytical model for the identification of saccharide binders in paint samples.

PubMed

Lluveras-Tenorio, Anna; Mazurek, Joy; Restivo, Annalaura; Colombini, Maria Perla; Bonaduce, Ilaria

2012-01-01

This paper describes a method for reliably identifying saccharide materials in paintings. Since the 3(rd) millennium B.C., polysaccharide materials such as plant gums, sugar, flour, and honey were used as binding media and sizing agents in paintings, illuminated manuscripts, and polychrome objects. Although it has been reported that plant gums have a stable composition, their identification in paint samples is often doubtful and rarely discussed. Our research was carried out independently at two different laboratories: the Getty Conservation Institute in Los Angeles, USA (GCI) and the Department of Chemistry and Industrial Chemistry of the University of Pisa, Italy (DCCI). It was shown in a previous stage of this research that the two methods give highly comparable data when analysing both reference paint samples and paint layers from art objects, thus the combined data was used to build a large database. In this study, the simultaneous presence of proteinaceous binders and pigments in fresh and artificially aged paint replicas was investigated, and it highlighted how these can affect the sugar profile of arabic, tragacanth, and fruit tree gums. The environmental contamination due to sugars from various plant tissues is also discussed. The results allowed the development of a new model for the reliable identification of saccharide binders in paintings based on the evaluation of markers that are stable to ageing and unaffected by pigments. This new model was applied to the sugar profiles obtained from the analysis of a large number of samples from murals, easel paintings, manuscripts, and polychrome objects from different geographical areas and dating from the 13(th) century BC to the 20(th) century AD, thus demonstrating its reliability.

Novel ageing-biomarker discovery using data-intensive technologies.

PubMed

Griffiths, H R; Augustyniak, E M; Bennett, S J; Debacq-Chainiaux, F; Dunston, C R; Kristensen, P; Melchjorsen, C J; Navarrete, Santos A; Simm, A; Toussaint, O

2015-11-01

Ageing is accompanied by many visible characteristics. Other biological and physiological markers are also well-described e.g. loss of circulating sex hormones and increased inflammatory cytokines. Biomarkers for healthy ageing studies are presently predicated on existing knowledge of ageing traits. The increasing availability of data-intensive methods enables deep-analysis of biological samples for novel biomarkers. We have adopted two discrete approaches in MARK-AGE Work Package 7 for biomarker discovery; (1) microarray analyses and/or proteomics in cell systems e.g. endothelial progenitor cells or T cell ageing including a stress model; and (2) investigation of cellular material and plasma directly from tightly-defined proband subsets of different ages using proteomic, transcriptomic and miR array. The first approach provided longitudinal insight into endothelial progenitor and T cell ageing. This review describes the strategy and use of hypothesis-free, data-intensive approaches to explore cellular proteins, miR, mRNA and plasma proteins as healthy ageing biomarkers, using ageing models and directly within samples from adults of different ages. It considers the challenges associated with integrating multiple models and pilot studies as rational biomarkers for a large cohort study. From this approach, a number of high-throughput methods were developed to evaluate novel, putative biomarkers of ageing in the MARK-AGE cohort. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

How Could Lay Perspectives on Successful Aging Complement Scientific Theory? Findings From a U.S. and a German Life-Span Sample

PubMed Central

Jopp, Daniela S.; Wozniak, Dagmara; Damarin, Amanda K.; De Feo, Melissa; Jung, Seojung; Jeswani, Sheena

2015-01-01

Purpose of the Study: This article investigates lay perspectives of the concept of successful aging in young, middle-aged, and older adults from 2 cultures, the United States and Germany, to potentially guide the development of scientific theories of successful aging. The empirical findings are embedded in a comprehensive overview of theories of successful aging and life-span development and offer implications for theory development. Design and Methods: Two samples of young, middle-aged, and older adults from the United States (N = 151) and Germany (N = 155) were asked about definitions and determinants of successful aging. Codes were developed to capture common themes among the answers, resulting in 16 categories. Results: Themes mentioned included resources (health, social), behaviors (activities), and psychological factors (strategies, attitudes/beliefs, well-being, meaning). There were striking similarities across countries, age, and gender. Health and Social Resources were mentioned most frequently, followed by Activities/Interests, Virtues/Attitudes/Beliefs, Well-being, and Life management/Coping. Age differences were limited to Growth/Maturation and Respect/Success, and gender differences were limited to Social Resources and Well-being. Educational and cultural effects were limited to psychological factors and Education/Knowledge, which were more often mentioned by U.S. participants and individuals with more education. Implications: Young, middle-aged, and older lay persons from the United States and Germany have quite similar concepts of successful aging, which they view in far more multidimensional terms than do established scientific theories (Rowe & Kahn, 1998). Given evidence that factors mentioned by laypeople do promote successful aging, considering them in more comprehensive theoretical models may enhance our understanding. PMID:24958719

Modulation transfer function cascade model for a sampled IR imaging system.

PubMed

de Luca, L; Cardone, G

1991-05-01

The performance of the infrared scanning radiometer (IRSR) is strongly stressed in convective heat transfer applications where high spatial frequencies in the signal that describes the thermal image are present. The need to characterize more deeply the system spatial resolution has led to the formulation of a cascade model for the evaluation of the actual modulation transfer function of a sampled IR imaging system. The model can yield both the aliasing band and the averaged modulation response for a general sampling subsystem. For a line scan imaging system, which is the case of a typical IRSR, a rule of thumb that states whether the combined sampling-imaging system is either imaging-dependent or sampling-dependent is proposed. The model is tested by comparing it with other noncascade models as well as by ad hoc measurements performed on a commercial digitized IRSR.

Block Constraints in Age-Period-Cohort Models with Unequal-Width Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luo, Liying; Hodges, James S.

2016-01-01

Age-period-cohort (APC) models are designed to estimate the independent effects of age, time periods, and cohort membership. However, APC models suffer from an identification problem: There are no unique estimates of the independent effects that fit the data best because of the exact linear dependency among age, period, and cohort. Among methods…

Development of a bioenergetics model for age-0 American Shad

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauter, Sally T.

2011-01-01

Bioenergetics modeling can be used as a tool to investigate the impact of non-native age-0 American shad (Alosa sapidissima) on reservoir and estuary food webs. The model can increase our understanding of how these fish influence lower trophic levels as well as predatory fish populations that feed on juvenile salmonids. Bioenergetics modeling can be used to investigate ecological processes, evaluate alternative research hypotheses, provide decision support, and quantitative prediction. Bioenergetics modeling has proven to be extremely useful in fisheries research (Ney et al. 1993,Chips and Wahl 2008, Petersen et al. 2008). If growth and diet parameters are known, the bioenergetics model can be used to quantify the relative amount of zooplankton or insects consumed by age-0 American shad. When linked with spatial and temporal information on fish abundance, model output can guide inferential hypothesis development to demonstrate where the greatest impacts of age-0 American shad might occur.

The association between maltreatment in childhood and criminal convictions to age 24: a prospective study of a community sample of males from disadvantaged neighbourhoods.

PubMed

Silva, Teresa C; Larm, Peter; Vitaro, Frank; Tremblay, Richard E; Hodgins, Sheilagh

2012-07-01

While many studies have observed a positive association between maltreatment in childhood and criminality in adolescence and adulthood, others have failed to detect such an association. Most studies, however, have not examined different types of maltreatment, nor taken account of other family and childhood factors that are predictive of criminality. Using data from a prospective, longitudinal investigation of a community sample of 1,037 males, we calculated hierarchical logistic regression models to estimate the associations of boys' self-reports of neglect, emotional abuse, and physical abuse at ages 10 and 12, with convictions for criminal offenses from age 12 to 24, after taking account of conduct problems, hurtful and uncaring behaviours (HUB), and parent's criminality. At ages 10 and 12, boys' reports of neglect, emotional abuse, and physical abuse, were not associated with criminal convictions for non-violent or for violent crimes from age 12 to 24. Among boys who did not engage in HUB towards others reports of emotional abuse were associated with subsequent criminality, while this association disappeared among the boys engaging in such behaviours. In this community sample of males, levels of each type of maltreatment were low and there were no direct associations with subsequent criminal convictions. The findings add to emerging evidence that the characteristics of the child and parents, as well as the type of maltreatment modify the association with future criminal offending.

Cognitive aging on latent constructs for visual processing capacity: a novel structural equation modeling framework with causal assumptions based on a theory of visual attention.

PubMed

Nielsen, Simon; Wilms, L Inge

2014-01-01

We examined the effects of normal aging on visual cognition in a sample of 112 healthy adults aged 60-75. A testbattery was designed to capture high-level measures of visual working memory and low-level measures of visuospatial attention and memory. To answer questions of how cognitive aging affects specific aspects of visual processing capacity, we used confirmatory factor analyses in Structural Equation Modeling (SEM; Model 2), informed by functional structures that were modeled with path analyses in SEM (Model 1). The results show that aging effects were selective to measures of visual processing speed compared to visual short-term memory (VSTM) capacity (Model 2). These results are consistent with some studies reporting selective aging effects on processing speed, and inconsistent with other studies reporting aging effects on both processing speed and VSTM capacity. In the discussion we argue that this discrepancy may be mediated by differences in age ranges, and variables of demography. The study demonstrates that SEM is a sensitive method to detect cognitive aging effects even within a narrow age-range, and a useful approach to structure the relationships between measured variables, and the cognitive functional foundation they supposedly represent.

Effects of sample survey design on the accuracy of classification tree models in species distribution models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Edwards, T.C.; Cutler, D.R.; Zimmermann, N.E.; Geiser, L.; Moisen, Gretchen G.

2006-01-01

We evaluated the effects of probabilistic (hereafter DESIGN) and non-probabilistic (PURPOSIVE) sample surveys on resultant classification tree models for predicting the presence of four lichen species in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models derived from both survey forms were assessed using an independent data set (EVALUATION). Measures of accuracy as gauged by resubstitution rates were similar for each lichen species irrespective of the underlying sample survey form. Cross-validation estimates of prediction accuracies were lower than resubstitution accuracies for all species and both design types, and in all cases were closer to the true prediction accuracies based on the EVALUATION data set. We argue that greater emphasis should be placed on calculating and reporting cross-validation accuracy rates rather than simple resubstitution accuracy rates. Evaluation of the DESIGN and PURPOSIVE tree models on the EVALUATION data set shows significantly lower prediction accuracy for the PURPOSIVE tree models relative to the DESIGN models, indicating that non-probabilistic sample surveys may generate models with limited predictive capability. These differences were consistent across all four lichen species, with 11 of the 12 possible species and sample survey type comparisons having significantly lower accuracy rates. Some differences in accuracy were as large as 50%. The classification tree structures also differed considerably both among and within the modelled species, depending on the sample survey form. Overlap in the predictor variables selected by the DESIGN and PURPOSIVE tree models ranged from only 20% to 38%, indicating the classification trees fit the two evaluated survey forms on different sets of predictor variables. The magnitude of these differences in predictor variables throws doubt on ecological interpretation derived from prediction models based on non-probabilistic sample surveys. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Skin aging by glycation: lessons from the reconstructed skin model.

PubMed

Pageon, Hervé; Zucchi, Hélène; Rousset, Françoise; Monnier, Vincent M; Asselineau, Daniel

2014-01-01

Aging is the result of several mechanisms which operate simultaneously. Among them, glycation is of particular interest because it is a reaction which affects slowly renewing tissues and macromolecules with elevated half-life, like the dermis, a skin compartment highly affected by aging. Glycation produces crosslinks between macromolecules thereby providing an explanation for the increased age-related stiffness of the skin. Glycation products, also called AGEs (advanced glycation end products), accumulate primarily in extracellular matrix molecules like collagen or elastin. In order to reproduce this phenomenon in vitro we have created a model of reconstructed skin modified by glycation of the collagen used to fabricate the dermal compartment. This system allowed us to uncover biological modifications of dermal markers, and more surprisingly epidermal markers, as well as an increase of metalloproteinases responsible for degradation of the dermal matrix. Consequently, the imbalance between synthesis and degradation that results from glycation, may contribute to skin aging, as shown in this model. Moreover these modifications were shown to be prevented by the addition of aminoguanidine, a well-known inhibitor of glycation. Using this experimental approach our results taken together stress the importance and possibly central role of glycation in skin aging and the usefulness of the reconstructed skin as a model of physiological aging.

Assessment of the effect of population and diary sampling methods on estimation of school-age children exposure to fine particles.

PubMed

Che, W W; Frey, H Christopher; Lau, Alexis K H

2014-12-01

Population and diary sampling methods are employed in exposure models to sample simulated individuals and their daily activity on each simulation day. Different sampling methods may lead to variations in estimated human exposure. In this study, two population sampling methods (stratified-random and random-random) and three diary sampling methods (random resampling, diversity and autocorrelation, and Markov-chain cluster [MCC]) are evaluated. Their impacts on estimated children's exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ) are quantified via case studies for children in Wake County, NC for July 2002. The estimated mean daily average exposure is 12.9 μg/m(3) for simulated children using the stratified population sampling method, and 12.2 μg/m(3) using the random sampling method. These minor differences are caused by the random sampling among ages within census tracts. Among the three diary sampling methods, there are differences in the estimated number of individuals with multiple days of exposures exceeding a benchmark of concern of 25 μg/m(3) due to differences in how multiday longitudinal diaries are estimated. The MCC method is relatively more conservative. In case studies evaluated here, the MCC method led to 10% higher estimation of the number of individuals with repeated exposures exceeding the benchmark. The comparisons help to identify and contrast the capabilities of each method and to offer insight regarding implications of method choice. Exposure simulation results are robust to the two population sampling methods evaluated, and are sensitive to the choice of method for simulating longitudinal diaries, particularly when analyzing results for specific microenvironments or for exposures exceeding a benchmark of concern. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Holocene Minimum of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Radiocarbon Model Ages for Subglacial Sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulaczyk, S. M.; Stansell, N.; Scherer, R. P.; Powell, R. D.

2017-12-01

It is commonly assumed that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is at the present time as small as it has been since at least the last interglacial period about 125,000 years ago. Yet, our recent analyses of subglacial sediments recovered from beneath the ice sheet indicate regionally widespread presence of radiocarbon. This unstable isotope with half life of 5,730 years should decay to nil if the analyzed subglacial sediment samples have been isolated beneath the ice sheet from the atmosphere and the ocean for 125,000 years (over 20 half lives). However, the apparent radiocarbon ages for these samples are in the range of about 20,000-30,000 years BP, based on radiocarbon Fraction Modern (FM) of a few to several percent. The apparent sediment ages cannot be taken at face value because: (1) they overlap with the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) when WAIS is known to have extended over 1,000 km past the sediment sampling locations, and (2) Antarctic glacigenic sediments commonly contain significant admixture of old, radiocarbon-dead organic matter. The latter biases apparent radiocarbon ages because it violates the assumption that the initial radiocarbon fraction in a sample was equal to FM. To mitigate the problem with apparent ages, we assume that initial radiocarbon fraction in subglacial sediments was equal to that determined by us independently in J-9 sediments from beneath the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) and calculate radiocarbon 'model ages' between 1,000 and 6,000 years BP. This period of time overlaps with a regional climatic optimum and with late phases of post-LGM glacioisostatic adjustment in the region (e.g., Kingslake et al., this session). We propose that the grounding line of WAIS, at least on the RIS side, retreated in mid/late Holocene more than 300 km beyond its current position and then re-advanced to reach its modern geometry. This implies that the main body of WAIS was significantly smaller than today in mid/late Holocene and that the ice sheet is capable of

Conceptualizing age-friendly community characteristics in a sample of urban elders: an exploratory factor analysis.

PubMed

Smith, Richard J; Lehning, Amanda J; Dunkle, Ruth E

2013-01-01

Accurate conceptualization and measurement of age-friendly community characteristics would help to reduce barriers to documenting the effects on elders of interventions to create such communities. This article contributes to the measurement of age-friendly communities through an exploratory factor analysis of items reflecting an existing US Environmental Protection Agency policy framework. From a sample of urban elders (n = 1,376), we identified 6 factors associated with demographic and health characteristics: access to business and leisure, social interaction, access to health care, neighborhood problems, social support, and community engagement. Future research should explore the effects of these factors across contexts and populations.

Sample Invariance of the Structural Equation Model and the Item Response Model: A Case Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breithaupt, Krista; Zumbo, Bruno D.

2002-01-01

Evaluated the sample invariance of item discrimination statistics in a case study using real data, responses of 10 random samples of 500 people to a depression scale. Results lend some support to the hypothesized superiority of a two-parameter item response model over the common form of structural equation modeling, at least when responses are…

Y chromosome DNA in cervicovaginal self-collected samples of childbearing age women: Implications for epitheliotropic sexually transmitted infections?

PubMed

Silva, Jani; Cerqueira, Fátima; Medeiros, Rui

2015-10-15

Assuming a possible association between Y chromosome (Yc)-DNA and sexually transmitted infection (STI) transmission rate, could Yc-DNA be related to an increased prevalence of Human Papillomavirus (HPV), Herpes Simplex Virus (HSV-1/2) and Chlamydia trachomatis (CT)? Could Yc-DNA be used to validate self-reported condom use and sexual behaviors? Cervicovaginal (CV) self-collected samples of 612 Portuguese women at childbearing age were tested for Yc, HPV, HSV-1/2 and CT by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The prevalence of Yc, HPV, CT and HSV-2 was 4.9%, 17.6%, 11.6% and 2.8%, respectively. There was a statistically significant trend for increased Yc-DNA prevalence in HPV positive samples [odds ratio (OR) 2.35, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-5.31] and oral contraceptive (OC) use (OR 4.73, 95% CI 1.09-20.44). A protective effect of condom use was observed in Yc-DNA detection (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.18-0.89). No statistically significant difference was found between Yc-DNA, CT and HSV-2 infection. HPV infection risk increased with age (>20 years), young age at first sexual intercourse (FSI) (≤18 years), >1 lifetime sexual partner (LSP) and OC use. Risk factors for CT infection were young age (≤20 years) and young age at FSI (≤18 years). HSV-2 infection risk increased with age (>20 years) and >1 LSP. Considering the prevalence of HPV and CT in Yc positive samples, we hypothesize a current infection due to recent sexual activity. The study of Yc PCR may add information as (i) a predictor of STI transmission and (ii) an indicative biomarker to validate self-reported condom use. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Overgeneral autobiographical memory in healthy young and older adults: Differential age effects on components of the capture and rumination, functional avoidance, and impaired executive control (CaRFAX) model.

PubMed

Ros, Laura; Latorre, Jose M; Serrano, Juan P; Ricarte, Jorge J

2017-08-01

The CaRFAX model (Williams et al., 2007) has been used to explain the causes of overgeneral autobiographical memory (OGM; the difficulty to retrieve specific autobiographical memories), a cognitive phenomenon generally related with different psychopathologies. This model proposes 3 different mechanisms to explain OGM: capture and rumination (CaR), functional avoidance (FA) and impaired executive functions (X). However, the complete CaRFAX model has not been tested in nonclinical populations. This study aims to assess the usefulness of the CaRFAX model to explain OGM in 2 healthy samples: a young sample and an older sample, to test for possible age-related differences in the underlying causes of OGM. A total of 175 young (age range: 19-36 years) and 175 older (age range: 53-88 years) participants completed measures of brooding rumination (CaR), functional avoidance (FA), and executive tasks (X). Using structural equation modeling, we found that memory specificity is mainly associated with lower functional avoidance and higher executive functions in the older group, but only with executive functions in young participants. We discuss the different roles of emotional regulation strategies used by young and older people and their relation to the CaRFAX model to explain OGM in healthy people. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Sampling Based Influence Maximization on Linear Threshold Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Su; Chen, Ling

2018-04-01

A sampling based influence maximization on linear threshold (LT) model method is presented. The method samples the routes in the possible worlds in the social networks, and uses Chernoff bound to estimate the number of samples so that the error can be constrained within a given bound. Then the active possibilities of the routes in the possible worlds are calculated, and are used to compute the influence spread of each node in the network. Our experimental results show that our method can effectively select appropriate seed nodes set that spreads larger influence than other similar methods.

Confirmation of the Three-Factor Model of Problematic Internet Use on Off-Line Adolescent and Adult Samples

PubMed Central

Koronczai, Beatrix; Urbán, Róbert; Kökönyei, Gyöngyi; Paksi, Borbála; Papp, Krisztina; Kun, Bernadette; Arnold, Petra; Kállai, János

2011-01-01

Abstract As the Internet became widely used, problems associated with its excessive use became increasingly apparent. Although for the assessment of these problems several models and related questionnaires have been elaborated, there has been little effort made to confirm them. The aim of the present study was to test the three-factor model of the previously created Problematic Internet Use Questionnaire (PIUQ) by data collection methods formerly not applied (off-line group and face-to-face settings), on the one hand, and by testing on different age groups (adolescent and adult representative samples), on the other hand. Data were collected from 438 high-school students (44.5 percent boys; mean age: 16.0 years; standard deviation=0.7 years) and also from 963 adults (49.9 percent males; mean age: 33.6 years; standard deviation=11.8 years). We applied confirmatory factor analysis to confirm the measurement model of problematic Internet use. The results of the analyses carried out inevitably support the original three-factor model over the possible one-factor solution. Using latent profile analysis, we identified 11 percent of adults and 18 percent of adolescent users characterized by problematic use. Based on exploratory factor analysis, we also suggest a short form of the PIUQ consisting of nine items. Both the original 18-item version of PIUQ and its short 9-item form have satisfactory reliability and validity characteristics, and thus, they are suitable for the assessment of problematic Internet use in future studies. PMID:21711129

Confirmation of the three-factor model of problematic internet use on off-line adolescent and adult samples.

PubMed

Koronczai, Beatrix; Urbán, Róbert; Kökönyei, Gyöngyi; Paksi, Borbála; Papp, Krisztina; Kun, Bernadette; Arnold, Petra; Kállai, János; Demetrovics, Zsolt

2011-11-01

As the Internet became widely used, problems associated with its excessive use became increasingly apparent. Although for the assessment of these problems several models and related questionnaires have been elaborated, there has been little effort made to confirm them. The aim of the present study was to test the three-factor model of the previously created Problematic Internet Use Questionnaire (PIUQ) by data collection methods formerly not applied (off-line group and face-to-face settings), on the one hand, and by testing on different age groups (adolescent and adult representative samples), on the other hand. Data were collected from 438 high-school students (44.5 percent boys; mean age: 16.0 years; standard deviation=0.7 years) and also from 963 adults (49.9 percent males; mean age: 33.6 years; standard deviation=11.8 years). We applied confirmatory factor analysis to confirm the measurement model of problematic Internet use. The results of the analyses carried out inevitably support the original three-factor model over the possible one-factor solution. Using latent profile analysis, we identified 11 percent of adults and 18 percent of adolescent users characterized by problematic use. Based on exploratory factor analysis, we also suggest a short form of the PIUQ consisting of nine items. Both the original 18-item version of PIUQ and its short 9-item form have satisfactory reliability and validity characteristics, and thus, they are suitable for the assessment of problematic Internet use in future studies.

Nothobranchius as a model for aging studies. A review

PubMed Central

Lucas-Sánchez, Alejandro; Almaida-Pagán, Pedro Francisco; Mendiola, Pilar; de Costa, Jorge

2014-01-01

In recent decades, the increase in human longevity has made it increasingly important to expand our knowledge on aging. To accomplish this, the use of animal models is essential, with the most common being mouse (phylogenetically similar to humans, and a model with a long life expectancy) and Caenorhabditis elegans (an invertebrate with a short life span, but quite removed from us in evolutionary terms). However, some sort of model is needed to bridge the differences between those mentioned above, achieving a balance between phylogenetic distance and life span. Fish of the genus Nothobranchius were suggested 10 years ago as a possible alternative for the study of the aging process. In the meantime, numerous studies have been conducted at different levels: behavioral (including the study of the rest-activity rhythm), populational, histochemical, biochemical and genetic, among others, with very positive results. This review compiles what we know about Nothobranchius to date, and examines its future prospects as a true alternative to the classic models for studies on aging. PMID:25110612

A model-based approach to sample size estimation in recent onset type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Bundy, Brian N; Krischer, Jeffrey P

2016-11-01

The area under the curve C-peptide following a 2-h mixed meal tolerance test from 498 individuals enrolled on five prior TrialNet studies of recent onset type 1 diabetes from baseline to 12 months after enrolment were modelled to produce estimates of its rate of loss and variance. Age at diagnosis and baseline C-peptide were found to be significant predictors, and adjusting for these in an ANCOVA resulted in estimates with lower variance. Using these results as planning parameters for new studies results in a nearly 50% reduction in the target sample size. The modelling also produces an expected C-peptide that can be used in observed versus expected calculations to estimate the presumption of benefit in ongoing trials. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Third molar maturity index (I3M) for assessing age of majority: study of a black South African sample.

PubMed

Angelakopoulos, N; De Luca, S; Velandia Palacio, L A; Coccia, E; Ferrante, L; Cameriere, R

2018-03-08

The evaluation of the cutoff value of I 3M  = 0.08 for discriminating black South African minors from adults, and its relationship with chronological age. A sample of 833 panoramic radiographs of healthy black South African subjects (500 females and 333 males), in the age range of 14 to 24 years (mean age 17.67 years in females and 17.42 years in males), was retrospectively evaluated. ICC values were 99.10% (95% CI 97.70 to 99.70%) and 99.20% (95% CI 98.00 to 99.60%), for the intra- and inter-observer reliability, respectively. I 3M decreased as the real age gradually increased in both sexes. According to the logistic regression model, the variable sex was not significant when the probability that an individual is 18 years or older was calculated. The I 3M  = 0.08 was valuable in discriminating between adults and minors. The overall accuracy (ACC = fraction of accurately classified subjects) is 0.90 (95% CI 0.87-0.91); the proportion of correctly classified subjects (Se = sensitivity) is 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84), and specificity (Sp) is 0.95 (95% CI 0.93-0.97). The PPV (predictive positive value) is 0.96 (95% CI 0.95-0.97), and the negative predictive value is 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.80). The results show that I 3M is a valuable method to distinguish subjects who are around legal adult age in South Africa.

Low-Temperature Thermochronology of Borehole and Surface Samples From the Wind River and Beartooth Laramide Ranges, Wyoming and Montana, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peyton, S. L.; Reiners, P. W.

2007-12-01

We dated borehole and surface samples from the Wind River and Beartooth Laramide-age, basement-cored uplifts of the Rocky Mountain foreland using the apatite (U-Th)/He (AHe) system. Comparison of these results to previously published apatite fission-track (AFT) data along with the incorporation of new He diffusion models (Shuster et al., 2006), reveals several new insights into, and poses new interpretational challenges for, the shallow exhumation histories of these ranges. Deep (2.2-2.8 km below surface) borehole samples from the Wind River Range have AHe ages of 9-12 Ma, and suggest at least 600 m of rapid exhumation during the Miocene. Shallower samples range from 35-66 Ma and are consistent with exhumation of a fossil partial retention zone. Previously-published apatite fission track (AFT) data from the same borehole show at least 2 km of rapid exhumation at ~45-38 Ma at depths where AHe ages are 9-50 Ma. This contrasts with the AHe ages which show slow exhumation between 12-66 Ma and have a trend on an age-elevation plot that appears to cut across the AFT age trend. Forward modeling of the cooling ages of these data using well-constrained thermal histories and conventional Durango apatite He diffusion data cannot explain these coupled AFT-AHe age-elevation relationships. However, modeling using diffusion kinetics of the Shuster et al. radiation-damage trapping model can explain the observed age trends, including the apparent presence of a 45-38 Ma exhumation event in the AFT data and its absence in the AHe data. In the model the shallow samples do not reach high enough temperatures for annealing of accumulated radiation damage, so He is trapped and ages are much older than predicted by conventional diffusion models. Previously-published AFT data from the Beartooth Range also show a large Laramide-age exhumation event, dated at 57-52 Ma. Similar to our observations from the Wind River Range, this event is not represented in our AHe results from borehole samples

Lattice Modeling of Early-Age Behavior of Structural Concrete.

PubMed

Pan, Yaming; Prado, Armando; Porras, Rocío; Hafez, Omar M; Bolander, John E

2017-02-25

The susceptibility of structural concrete to early-age cracking depends on material composition, methods of processing, structural boundary conditions, and a variety of environmental factors. Computational modeling offers a means for identifying primary factors and strategies for reducing cracking potential. Herein, lattice models are shown to be adept at simulating the thermal-hygral-mechanical phenomena that influence early-age cracking. In particular, this paper presents a lattice-based approach that utilizes a model of cementitious materials hydration to control the development of concrete properties, including stiffness, strength, and creep resistance. The approach is validated and used to simulate early-age cracking in concrete bridge decks. Structural configuration plays a key role in determining the magnitude and distribution of stresses caused by volume instabilities of the concrete material. Under restrained conditions, both thermal and hygral effects are found to be primary contributors to cracking potential.

Lattice Modeling of Early-Age Behavior of Structural Concrete

PubMed Central

Pan, Yaming; Prado, Armando; Porras, Rocío; Hafez, Omar M.; Bolander, John E.

2017-01-01

The susceptibility of structural concrete to early-age cracking depends on material composition, methods of processing, structural boundary conditions, and a variety of environmental factors. Computational modeling offers a means for identifying primary factors and strategies for reducing cracking potential. Herein, lattice models are shown to be adept at simulating the thermal-hygral-mechanical phenomena that influence early-age cracking. In particular, this paper presents a lattice-based approach that utilizes a model of cementitious materials hydration to control the development of concrete properties, including stiffness, strength, and creep resistance. The approach is validated and used to simulate early-age cracking in concrete bridge decks. Structural configuration plays a key role in determining the magnitude and distribution of stresses caused by volume instabilities of the concrete material. Under restrained conditions, both thermal and hygral effects are found to be primary contributors to cracking potential. PMID:28772590

Applying the age-shift approach to model responses to midrotation fertilization

Treesearch

Colleen A. Carlson; Thomas R. Fox; H. Lee Allen; Timothy J. Albaugh

2010-01-01

Growth and yield models used to evaluate midrotation fertilization economics require adjustments to account for the typically observed responses. This study investigated the use of age-shift models to predict midrotation fertilizer responses. Age-shift prediction models were constructed from a regional study consisting of 43 installations of a nitrogen (N) by...

Sample entropy tracks changes in electroencephalogram power spectrum with sleep state and aging.

PubMed

Bruce, Eugene N; Bruce, Margaret C; Vennelaganti, Swetha

2009-08-01

The regularity of electroencephalogram signals was compared between middle-aged (47.2 +/- 2.0 years) and elderly (78.4 +/- 3.8 years) female subjects in wake, nonrapid eye movement stages 2 and 3 (S-2, S-3), and rapid eye movement sleep. Signals from C3A2 leads of healthy subjects, acquired from polysomnograms obtained from the Sleep Heart Health Study, were analyzed using both sample entropy (SaEn) and power spectral analysis (delta, theta, alpha, and beta frequency band powers). SaEn changed systematically and significantly (P < 0.001) with sleep state in both age groups, following the relationships wake > rapid eye movement > S-2 > S-3. SaEn was found to be negatively correlated with delta power and positively correlated with beta power. Small changes in SaEn seem to reflect changes in spectral content rather than changes in regularity of the signal. A better predictor of SaEn than the frequency band powers was the logarithm of the power ratio (alpha + beta)/(delta + theta). Thus, SaEn seems to reflect the balance between sleep-promoting and alertness-promoting mechanisms. SaEn of the elderly was larger than that of middle-aged subjects in S-2 (P = 0.029) and rapid eye movement (P = 0.001), suggesting that cortical state is shifted toward alertness in elderly subjects in these sleep states compared with the middle-aged subjects.

Risk factor studies of age-at-onset in a sample ascertained for Parkinson disease affected sibling pairs: a cautionary tale

PubMed Central

Wilk, Jemma B; Lash, Timothy L

2007-01-01

An association between exposure to a risk factor and age-at-onset of disease may reflect an effect on the rate of disease occurrence or an acceleration of the disease process. The difference in age-at-onset arising from case-only studies, however, may also reflect secular trends in the prevalence of exposure to the risk factor. Comparisons of age-at-onset associated with risk factors are commonly performed in case series enrolled for genetic linkage analysis of late onset diseases. We describe how the results of age-at-onset studies of environmental risk factors reflect the underlying structure of the source population, rather than an association with age-at-onset, by contrasting the effects of coffee drinking and cigarette smoking on Parkinson disease age-at-onset with the effects on age-at-enrollment in a population based study sample. Despite earlier evidence to suggest a protective association of coffee drinking and cigarette smoking with Parkinson disease risk, the age-at-onset results are comparable to the patterns observed in the population sample, and thus a causal inference from the age-at-onset effect may not be justified. Protective effects of multivitamin use on PD age-at-onset are also shown to be subject to a bias from the relationship between age and multivitamin initiation. Case-only studies of age-at-onset must be performed with an appreciation for the association between risk factors and age and ageing in the source population. PMID:17408493

USE OF COMMERCIAL TELEPHONE DIRECTORY FOR OBTAINING A POPULATION-BASED SAMPLE OF WOMEN OF REPRODUCTIVE AGE

EPA Science Inventory

Using Commercial Telephone Directories to Obtain a Population-Based Sample for Mail Survey of Women of Reproductive Age

Danelle T. Lobdella, Germaine M. Buckb, John M. Weinerc, Pauline Mendolaa

aUnited States Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and ...

The Fruit Fly Drosophila melanogaster as a Model for Aging Research.

PubMed

Brandt, Annely; Vilcinskas, Andreas

2013-01-01

: Average human life expectancy is increasing and so is the impact on society of aging and age-related diseases. Here we highlight recent advances in the diverse and multidisciplinary field of aging research, focusing on the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster, an excellent model system in which to dissect the genetic and molecular basis of the aging processes. The conservation of human disease genes in D. melanogaster allows the functional analysis of orthologues implicated in human aging and age-related diseases. D. melanogaster models have been developed for a variety of age-related processes and disorders, including stem cell decline, Alzheimer's disease, and cardiovascular deterioration. Understanding the detailed molecular events involved in normal aging and age-related diseases could facilitate the development of strategies and treatments that reduce their impact, thus improving human health and increasing longevity.

Modeling motor vehicle crashes using Poisson-gamma models: examining the effects of low sample mean values and small sample size on the estimation of the fixed dispersion parameter.

PubMed

Lord, Dominique

2006-07-01

There has been considerable research conducted on the development of statistical models for predicting crashes on highway facilities. Despite numerous advancements made for improving the estimation tools of statistical models, the most common probabilistic structure used for modeling motor vehicle crashes remains the traditional Poisson and Poisson-gamma (or Negative Binomial) distribution; when crash data exhibit over-dispersion, the Poisson-gamma model is usually the model of choice most favored by transportation safety modelers. Crash data collected for safety studies often have the unusual attributes of being characterized by low sample mean values. Studies have shown that the goodness-of-fit of statistical models produced from such datasets can be significantly affected. This issue has been defined as the "low mean problem" (LMP). Despite recent developments on methods to circumvent the LMP and test the goodness-of-fit of models developed using such datasets, no work has so far examined how the LMP affects the fixed dispersion parameter of Poisson-gamma models used for modeling motor vehicle crashes. The dispersion parameter plays an important role in many types of safety studies and should, therefore, be reliably estimated. The primary objective of this research project was to verify whether the LMP affects the estimation of the dispersion parameter and, if it is, to determine the magnitude of the problem. The secondary objective consisted of determining the effects of an unreliably estimated dispersion parameter on common analyses performed in highway safety studies. To accomplish the objectives of the study, a series of Poisson-gamma distributions were simulated using different values describing the mean, the dispersion parameter, and the sample size. Three estimators commonly used by transportation safety modelers for estimating the dispersion parameter of Poisson-gamma models were evaluated: the method of moments, the weighted regression, and the maximum

Location and age database for selected foraminifer samples collected by Exxon Petroleum geologists in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brabb, Earl E.; Parker, John M.

2003-01-01

Most of the geologic maps published for central California before 1960 were made without the benefit of age determinations from microfossils. The ages of Cretaceous and Tertiary rocks in the mostly poorly exposed and structurally complex sedimentary rocks represented in the Coast Ranges are critical in determining stratigraphic succession or lack of it, and in determining whether the juxtaposition of similar appearing but different age formations means a fault is present. Since the 1930’s, at least, oil company geologists have used microfossils to assist them in geologic mapping and in determining the environments of deposition of the sediment containing the microfossils. This information has been so confidential that some companies even coded the names of foraminifers to prevent disclosure. In the past 20 years, however, the attitude of petroleum companies about this information has changed, and many of the formerly confidential materials and reports are now available. We report here on 1,964 Exxon foraminifer samples mostly from surface localities in the San Francisco Bay region, and elsewhere in California. Most but not all the samples were plotted on U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) 7.5’ topographic maps or on obsolete USGS 15’ maps. The information from the slides can be used to update geologic maps prepared without the benefit of microfossil data, to analyze the depth and temperature of ocean water covering parts of California during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic Eras, and for solving nomenclature and other scientific problems. A similar report on more than 30,000 slides for surface samples collected by Chevron geologists has been released (Brabb and Parker, 2003), and another report provides information on slides for more than 2000 oil test wells in Northern California (Brabb, Powell, and Brocher, 2001).

New models for age estimation and assessment of their accuracy using developing mandibular third molar teeth in a Thai population.

PubMed

Duangto, P; Iamaroon, A; Prasitwattanaseree, S; Mahakkanukrauh, P; Janhom, A

2017-03-01

Age estimation using developing third molar teeth is considered an important and accurate technique for both clinical and forensic practices. The aims of this study were to establish population-specific reference data, to develop age prediction models using mandibular third molar development, to test the accuracy of the resulting models, and to find the probability of persons being at the age thresholds of legal relevance in a Thai population. A total of 1867 digital panoramic radiographs of Thai individuals aged between 8 and 23 years was selected to assess dental age. The mandibular third molar development was divided into nine stages. The stages were evaluated and each stage was transformed into a development score. Quadratic regression was employed to develop age prediction models. Our results show that males reached mandibular third molar root formation stages earlier than females. The models revealed a high correlation coefficient for both left and right mandibular third molar teeth in both sexes (R = 0.945 and 0.944 in males, R = 0.922 and 0.923 in females, respectively). Furthermore, the accuracy of the resulting models was tested in randomly selected 374 cases and showed low error values between the predicted dental age and the chronological age for both left and right mandibular third molar teeth in both sexes (-0.13 and -0.17 years in males, 0.01 and 0.03 years in females, respectively). In Thai samples, when the mandibular third molar teeth reached stage H, the probability of the person being over 18 years was 100 % in both sexes.

Estimated Prevalence of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in a Sample of Panamanian School-Aged Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sanchez, Emelyn Y.; Velarde, Silvia; Britton, Gabrielle B.

2011-01-01

The present study investigated the prevalence of ADHD in a school sample of children ages 6-11 years in the city of Panama. The assessment battery included the Conners' Parent and Teacher Rating Scales, the Structured Developmental History of the Behavioral Assessment System for Children (BASC-2), and the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children…

Aging, neurogenesis, and caloric restriction in different model organisms.

PubMed

Arslan-Ergul, Ayca; Ozdemir, A Tugrul; Adams, Michelle M

2013-08-01

Brain aging is a multifactorial process that is occurring across multiple cognitive domains. A significant complaint that occurs in the elderly is a decrement in learning and memory ability. Both rodents and zebrafish exhibit a similar problem with memory during aging. The neurobiological changes that underlie this cognitive decline are complex and undoubtedly influenced by many factors. Alterations in the birth of new neurons and neuron turnover may contribute to age-related cognitive problems. Caloric restriction is the only non-genetic intervention that reliably increases life span and healthspan across multiple organisms although the molecular mechanisms are not well-understood. Recently the zebrafish has become a popular model organism for understanding the neurobiological consequences but to date very little work has been performed. Similarly, few studies have examined the effects of dietary restriction in zebrafish. Here we review the literature related to memory decline, neurogenesis, and caloric restriction across model organisms and suggest that zebrafish has the potential to be an important animal model for understanding the complex interactions between age, neurobiological changes in the brain, and dietary regimens or their mimetics as interventions.

Hydra, a powerful model for aging studies

PubMed Central

Tomczyk, Szymon; Fischer, Kathleen; Austad, Steven; Galliot, Brigitte

2015-01-01

Cnidarian Hydra polyps escape senescence, most likely due to the robust activity of their three stem cell populations. These stem cells continuously self-renew in the body column and differentiate at the extremities following a tightly coordinated spatial pattern. Paul Brien showed in 1953 that in one particular species, Hydra oligactis, cold-dependent sexual differentiation leads to rapid aging and death. Here, we review the features of this inducible aging phenotype. These cellular alterations, detected several weeks after aging was induced, are characterized by a decreasing density of somatic interstitial cell derivatives, a disorganization of the apical nervous system, and a disorganization of myofibers of the epithelial cells. Consequently, tissue replacement required to maintain homeostasis, feeding behavior, and contractility of the animal are dramatically affected. Interestingly, this aging phenotype is not observed in all H. oligactis strains, thus providing a powerful experimental model for investigations of the genetic control of aging. Given the presence in the cnidarian genome of a large number of human orthologs that have been lost in ecdysozoans, such approaches might help uncover novel regulators of aging in vertebrates. PMID:26120246

Implementation of an active aging model in Mexico for prevention and control of chronic diseases in the elderly

PubMed Central

Mendoza-Núñez, Víctor Manuel; Martínez-Maldonado, María de la Luz; Correa-Muñoz, Elsa

2009-01-01

Background World Health Organization cites among the main challenges of populational aging the dual disease burden: the greater risk of disability, and the need for care. In this sense, the most frequent chronic diseases during old age worldwide are high blood pressure, type 2 diabetes mellitus, cancer, arthritis, osteoporosis, depression, and dementia. Chronic disease-associated dependency represents an onerous sanitary and financial burden for the older adult, the family, and the health care system. Thus, it is necessary to propose community-level models for chronic disease prevention and control in old age. The aim of the present work is to show our experience in the development and implementation of a model for chronic disease prevention and control in old age at the community level under the active aging paradigm. Methods/Design A longitudinal study will be carried out in a sample of 400 elderly urban and rural-dwelling individuals residing in Hidalgo State, Mexico during five years. All participants will be enrolled in the model active aging. This establishes the formation of 40 gerontological promoters (GPs) from among the older adults themselves. The GPs function as mutual-help group coordinators (gerontological nuclei) and establish self-care and self-promotion actions for elderly well-being and social development. It will be conformed a big-net of social network of 40 mutual-help groups of ten elderly adults each one, in which self-care is a daily practice for chronic disease prevention and control, as well as for achieving maximal well-being and life quality in old age. Indicators of the model's impact will be (i) therapeutic adherence; (ii) the incidence of the main chronic diseases in old age; (iii) life expectancy without chronic diseases at 60 years of age; (iv) disability adjusted life years lost; (v) years of life lost due to premature mortality, and (vi) years lived with disability. Discussion We propose that the implementation of the model active

Consumer sensory acceptance and value of wet-aged and dry-aged beef steaks.

PubMed

Sitz, B M; Calkins, C R; Feuz, D M; Umberger, W J; Eskridge, K M

2006-05-01

To determine sensory preference and value of fresh beef steak differing in aging technique, strip steaks were evaluated by consumers in Denver (n = 132 consumers) and Chicago (n = 141 consumers). Wet-aged Choice strip loins were matched with dry-aged Choice strip loins, whereas wet-aged Prime strip loins were matched with dry-aged Prime strip loins. Dry-aged strip loins were commercially aged in air in a controlled environment for 30 d and vacuum-aged for 7 d during shipping and storage. Wet-aged strip loins were vacuum-packaged and aged for 37 d in a 1 degrees C cooler. Pairs of strip loins were matched to similar Warner-Bratzler shear force values and marbling scores. Twelve sensory evaluation panels (of 12 scheduled panelists each) were conducted over a 3-d period in each city. Individual samples from a pair of steaks were evaluated by the panelists for sensory traits. Bids were placed on the samples after sensory traits were obtained utilizing a variation of the Vickery auction with silent, sealed bids. No significant differences for sensory traits of flavor, juiciness, tenderness, or overall acceptability were detected between wet-aged Choice samples and dry-aged Choice samples. Although wet-aged Choice samples were numerically superior for all sensory traits, consumers placed similar bid values (P = 0.12) on wet- and dry-aged Choice samples ($3.82 per 0.45 kg and $3.57 per 0.45 kg, respectively). Wet-aged Prime samples were rated more desirable (P < 0.001) for flavor, tenderness, and overall acceptability than dry-aged Prime samples. Wet-aged Prime samples were valued at $4.02 per 0.45 kg, whereas dry-aged Prime samples brought $3.58 per 0.45 kg (P = 0.008). Consumers (29.3%) who preferred the dry-aged Choice samples over the wet-aged Choice samples were willing to pay $1.99/0.45 kg more (P < 0.001) for dry-aged samples. The consumers who preferred the wet-aged Choice over the dry-aged Choice samples (39.2%) were willing to pay $1.77/0.45 kg more (P < 0

A comparison of lead lengths for mini-fyke nets to sample age-0 gar species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, James M.; Snow, Richard A.; Patterson, Chas P.

2016-01-01

Mini-fyke nets are often used to sample small-bodied fishes in shallow (<1 m depth) water, especially in vegetated shoreline habitats where seines are ineffective. Recent interest in gar (Lepisosteidae) ecology and conservation led us to explore the use of mini-fyke nets to capture age-0 gar and specifically how capture is affected by lead length of the fyke net. In the summers of 2012, 2013, and 2015, mini-fyke nets with two different lead lengths (4.57 m and 9.14 m) were set at random sites in backwaters and coves of the Red River arm of Lake Texoma, Oklahoma. Mean CPUE (catch-per-unit-effort; number per net night) was significantly lower for mini-fyke nets with short leads (0.52) compared to those with long leads (1.51). Additionally, Spotted Gar (Lepisosteus oculatus) were captured at a higher rate than the other three gar species present in Lake Texoma, although this could have been an artifact of sampling location. We found that differences in length-frequency of captured gar between gear types were nearly significant, with total length ranging from 47mm to 590mm. Mini-fyke nets with longer leads increased the efficiency of sampling for age-0 gar by increasing catch rate without affecting estimates of other population parameters and appear to be useful for this purpose. 

Successful aging in Spanish older adults: the role of psychosocial resources.

PubMed

Dumitrache, Cristina G; Rubio, Laura; Cordón-Pozo, Eulogio

2018-05-25

ABSTRACTBackground:Psychological and social resources such as extraversion, optimism, social support, or social networks contribute to adaptation and to successful aging. Building on assumptions derived from successful aging and from the developmental adaptation models, this study aims to analyze the joint impact of different psychosocial resources, such as personality, social relations, health, and socio-demographic characteristics on life satisfaction in a group of people aged 65 years-old and older from Spain. A cross-sectional survey using non-proportional quota sampling was carried out. The sample comprised 406 community-dwelling older adults (M = 74.88, SD = 6.75). In order to collect the data, face-to-face interviews were individually conducted. A structural equation model (SEM) was carried out using the PLS software. The results of the SEM model showed that, within this sample, psychosocial variables explain 47.4% of the variance in life satisfaction. Social relations and personality, specifically optimism, were strongly related with life satisfaction, while health status and socio-demographic characteristics were modestly associated with life satisfaction. Findings support the view that psychosocial resources are important for successful aging and therefore should be included in successful aging models. Furthermore, interventions aimed at fostering successful aging should take into account the role of psychosocial variables.

Sex- and age-specific associations between major depressive disorder and metabolic syndrome in two general population samples in Germany.

PubMed

Block, Andrea; Schipf, Sabine; Van der Auwera, Sandra; Hannemann, Anke; Nauck, Matthias; John, Ulrich; Völzke, Henry; Freyberger, Harald Jürgen; Dörr, Marcus; Felix, Stephan; Zygmunt, Marek; Wallaschofski, Henri; Grabe, Hans Jörgen

2016-11-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) has been associated with the Metabolic Syndrome (MetS). As previous data strongly suggested sex and age effects on this association, this study aimed to analyse the association between MDD and MetS in two general population samples under explicit consideration of sex and age. This study analysed cross-sectional data based on two independent general population samples: SHIP-0 (n = 4083; 20-81 years; 49.4% male) and SHIP-TREND-0 (n = 3957; 20-83 years; 49.0% male) that were part of the Study of Health in Pomerania. MDD (SHIP-0: 12.6%; SHIP-TREND-0: 27.2%) was assessed using the Composite International Diagnostic-Screener (CID-S) in both samples. Interview assessment of MDD diagnosis according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders IV (DSM-IV) criteria was performed in SHIP-TREND-0 (18.1% MDD). MetS was defined by abdominal obesity, elevated blood pressure, elevated glucose, elevated triglycerides and reduced high-density lipoprotein cholesterol according to established criteria. Data analysis was performed sex- and age-stratified. Prevalence of MetS was high in both samples: 19.4% of females and 30.2% of males in SHIP-0 and 22.1% and 33.2% in SHIP-TREND-0, respectively. Effect modifications were observed by sex and age on the association between MDD and MetS. Particularly, younger females (20-49 years) with MDD were more often affected by MetS than younger females without MDD: OR = 2.21 (95% CI = 1.39-3.50). This association vanished in elderly participants (50-82 years). The data suggest that especially younger (presumably pre-menopausal) females with MDD are more likely to have MetS than those without major depressive disorders, and that age extenuates this association.

Tigers on trails: occupancy modeling for cluster sampling.

PubMed

Hines, J E; Nichols, J D; Royle, J A; MacKenzie, D I; Gopalaswamy, A M; Kumar, N Samba; Karanth, K U

2010-07-01

Occupancy modeling focuses on inference about the distribution of organisms over space, using temporal or spatial replication to allow inference about the detection process. Inference based on spatial replication strictly requires that replicates be selected randomly and with replacement, but the importance of these design requirements is not well understood. This paper focuses on an increasingly popular sampling design based on spatial replicates that are not selected randomly and that are expected to exhibit Markovian dependence. We develop two new occupancy models for data collected under this sort of design, one based on an underlying Markov model for spatial dependence and the other based on a trap response model with Markovian detections. We then simulated data under the model for Markovian spatial dependence and fit the data to standard occupancy models and to the two new models. Bias of occupancy estimates was substantial for the standard models, smaller for the new trap response model, and negligible for the new spatial process model. We also fit these models to data from a large-scale tiger occupancy survey recently conducted in Karnataka State, southwestern India. In addition to providing evidence of a positive relationship between tiger occupancy and habitat, model selection statistics and estimates strongly supported the use of the model with Markovian spatial dependence. This new model provides another tool for the decomposition of the detection process, which is sometimes needed for proper estimation and which may also permit interesting biological inferences. In addition to designs employing spatial replication, we note the likely existence of temporal Markovian dependence in many designs using temporal replication. The models developed here will be useful either directly, or with minor extensions, for these designs as well. We believe that these new models represent important additions to the suite of modeling tools now available for occupancy

Drosophila as a model to study cardiac aging

PubMed Central

Nishimura, Mayuko; Ocorr, Karen; Bodmer, Rolf; Cartry, Jérôme

2010-01-01

With age, cardiac performance declines progressively and the risk of heart disease, a primary cause of mortality, rises dramatically. As the elderly population continues to increase, it is critical to gain a better understanding of the genetic influences and modulatory factors that impact cardiac aging. In an attempt to determine the relevance and utility of the Drosophila heart in unraveling the genetic mechanisms underlying cardiac aging, a variety of heart performance assays have recently been developed to quantify Drosophila heart performance that permit the use of the fruit fly to investigate the heart’s decline with age. As for the human heart, Drosophila heart function also deteriorates with age. Notably, with progressive age the incidence of cardiac arrhythmias, myofibrillar disorganization and susceptibility to heart dysfunction and failure all increase significantly. We review here the evidence for an involvement of the insulin-TOR pathway, the KATP channel subunit dSur, the KCNQ potassium channel, as well as Dystrophin and Myosin in fly cardiac aging, and discuss the utility of the Drosophila heart model for cardiac aging studies. PMID:21130861

A simple homogeneous model for regular and irregular metallic wire media samples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosulnikov, S. Y.; Mirmoosa, M. S.; Simovski, C. R.

2018-02-01

To simplify the solution of electromagnetic problems with wire media samples, it is reasonable to treat them as the samples of a homogeneous material without spatial dispersion. The account of spatial dispersion implies additional boundary conditions and makes the solution of boundary problems difficult especially if the sample is not an infinitely extended layer. Moreover, for a novel type of wire media - arrays of randomly tilted wires - a spatially dispersive model has not been developed. Here, we introduce a simplistic heuristic model of wire media samples shaped as bricks. Our model covers WM of both regularly and irregularly stretched wires.

Exploring the effect of depressive symptoms and ageing on metamemory in an Italian adult sample.

PubMed

Fastame, Maria Chiara

2014-01-01

The current study aimed to investigate the effect of depression and age-related factors on metamemory measures in an Italian adult sample. Fifty-eight healthy participants were recruited in Northern Italy and were, respectively, assigned to the following groups: Young (20-30 years old), old (60-70 years old), and Very Old (71-84 years old). Participants were administered a battery of tests, including a word recall task, self-referent mnestic efficiency scales, general beliefs about memory, and depression measures. General beliefs about memory, self-efficacy, and beliefs about the control of personal memory were predicted by age, education, depression, and mnestic and cognitive efficiency. Finally, age-related differences were found in metamemory measures: the accuracy of mnestic control processes is thought to be lower by very old adults than by old and young individuals.

From samples to populations in retinex models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gianini, Gabriele

2017-05-01

Some spatial color algorithms, such as Brownian Milano retinex (MI-retinex) and random spray retinex (RSR), are based on sampling. In Brownian MI-retinex, memoryless random walks (MRWs) explore the neighborhood of a pixel and are then used to compute its output. Considering the relative redundancy and inefficiency of MRW exploration, the algorithm RSR replaced the walks by samples of points (the sprays). Recent works point to the fact that a mapping from the sampling formulation to the probabilistic formulation of the corresponding sampling process can offer useful insights into the models, at the same time featuring intrinsically noise-free outputs. The paper continues the development of this concept and shows that the population-based versions of RSR and Brownian MI-retinex can be used to obtain analytical expressions for the outputs of some test images. The comparison of the two analytic expressions from RSR and from Brownian MI-retinex demonstrates not only that the two outputs are, in general, different but also that they depend in a qualitatively different way upon the features of the image.

The redshift distribution of cosmological samples: a forward modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herbel, Jörg; Kacprzak, Tomasz; Amara, Adam; Refregier, Alexandre; Bruderer, Claudio; Nicola, Andrina

2017-08-01

Determining the redshift distribution n(z) of galaxy samples is essential for several cosmological probes including weak lensing. For imaging surveys, this is usually done using photometric redshifts estimated on an object-by-object basis. We present a new approach for directly measuring the global n(z) of cosmological galaxy samples, including uncertainties, using forward modeling. Our method relies on image simulations produced using \\textsc{UFig} (Ultra Fast Image Generator) and on ABC (Approximate Bayesian Computation) within the MCCL (Monte-Carlo Control Loops) framework. The galaxy population is modeled using parametric forms for the luminosity functions, spectral energy distributions, sizes and radial profiles of both blue and red galaxies. We apply exactly the same analysis to the real data and to the simulated images, which also include instrumental and observational effects. By adjusting the parameters of the simulations, we derive a set of acceptable models that are statistically consistent with the data. We then apply the same cuts to the simulations that were used to construct the target galaxy sample in the real data. The redshifts of the galaxies in the resulting simulated samples yield a set of n(z) distributions for the acceptable models. We demonstrate the method by determining n(z) for a cosmic shear like galaxy sample from the 4-band Subaru Suprime-Cam data in the COSMOS field. We also complement this imaging data with a spectroscopic calibration sample from the VVDS survey. We compare our resulting posterior n(z) distributions to the one derived from photometric redshifts estimated using 36 photometric bands in COSMOS and find good agreement. This offers good prospects for applying our approach to current and future large imaging surveys.

The role of perceived discrimination on active aging.

PubMed

Fernandez-Ballesteros, Rocio; Olmos, Ricardo; Santacreu, Marta; Bustillos, Antonio; Molina, Maria Angeles

2017-07-01

Among older adults, perceived age discrimination is highly associated with unhealthy outcomes and dissatisfaction. Active aging is a multidimensional concept described by a set of characteristics, particularly health, positive mood and control; most importantly, active aging is currently at the core of public policies. The aim of the present study was to test to what extent perceived discrimination influences active aging. Methods A total of 2005 older adults in three representative samples from regions of Germany, Mexico and Spain participated; they were tested on active aging and perceived discrimination. First, active aging was defined as high reported health, life satisfaction and self-perception of aging. Second, authors introduced the assumption that, in the total sample, structural equation modelling would confirm the hypothesis of a direct negative link between perceived age discrimination and active aging. Finally, multiple group comparison performed through structural equation modelling also provided support for the negative association between perceived discrimination and active aging proposed. In spite of the differences found among the three countries in both active aging variables and age discrimination perception, multiple group comparison indicates that regardless of the culture, perceived discrimination is a negative predictor of active aging. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Accurate aging of juvenile salmonids using fork lengths

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sethi, Suresh; Gerken, Jonathon; Ashline, Joshua

2017-01-01

Juvenile salmon life history strategies, survival, and habitat interactions may vary by age cohort. However, aging individual juvenile fish using scale reading is time consuming and can be error prone. Fork length data are routinely measured while sampling juvenile salmonids. We explore the performance of aging juvenile fish based solely on fork length data, using finite Gaussian mixture models to describe multimodal size distributions and estimate optimal age-discriminating length thresholds. Fork length-based ages are compared against a validation set of juvenile coho salmon, Oncorynchus kisutch, aged by scales. Results for juvenile coho salmon indicate greater than 95% accuracy can be achieved by aging fish using length thresholds estimated from mixture models. Highest accuracy is achieved when aged fish are compared to length thresholds generated from samples from the same drainage, time of year, and habitat type (lentic versus lotic), although relatively high aging accuracy can still be achieved when thresholds are extrapolated to fish from populations in different years or drainages. Fork length-based aging thresholds are applicable for taxa for which multiple age cohorts coexist sympatrically. Where applicable, the method of aging individual fish is relatively quick to implement and can avoid ager interpretation bias common in scale-based aging.

The Violent Early Solar System, as Told by Lunar Sample Geochronology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, B. A.

2012-12-01

the lunar surface was resurfaced; on Earth, this would scale to ~23,000 large impacts in a brief time. Impact ages in ordinary chondrites, HED meteorites, and the Martian meteorite ALH 84001 suggest that this early bombardment event affected the entire inner solar system. If true, the late heavy bombardment may have directly affected the evolution of life on Earth and our understanding of "habitable" planets. Lunar sample ages have also been used to drive large-scale dynamical modeling of solar system formation. These new models of planetary dynamics show a violent beginning to our solar system, where the late formation or outward migration of the gas giant planets destabilizes the Kuiper belt and main-belt asteroids, sending a cascade of impactors into the Moon and all the inner planets. The existence of an early bombardment has even been postulated in extrasolar planetary systems. Even after 40+ years of study, the provenance of returned lunar samples and ages of key events continue to be a focus of research and a topic of debate. One of the most important lessons learned from Apollo missions is that small samples yield a wealth of information and are gifts that keep on giving. The legacy of Apollo samples serves as a model and impetus for future sample return missions from the Moon, Mars, and asteroids.

Conceptualizing Age-Friendly Community Characteristics in a Sample of Urban Elders: An Exploratory Factor Analysis

PubMed Central

Smith, Richard J.; Lehning, Amanda J.; Dunkle, Ruth E.

2012-01-01

Accurate conceptualization and measurement of age-friendly community characteristics would help to reduce barriers to documenting the effects on elders of interventions to create such communities. This article contributes to the measurement of age-friendly communities through an exploratory factor analysis of items reflecting an existing U.S. Environmental Protection Agency policy framework. From a sample of urban elders (n =1,376), we identified six factors associated with demographic and health characteristics: Access to Business and Leisure, Social Interaction, Access to Health Care, Neighborhood Problems, Social Support, and Community Engagement. Future research should explore the effects of these factors across contexts and populations. PMID:23350565

Beam Heating of Samples: Modeling and Verification. Part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kazmierczak, Michael; Gopalakrishnan, Pradeep; Kumar, Raghav; Banerjee Rupak; Snell, Edward; Bellamy, Henry; Rosenbaum, Gerd; vanderWoerd, Mark

2006-01-01

Energy absorbed from the X-ray beam by the sample requires cooling by forced convection (i.e. cryostream) to minimize temperature increase and the damage caused to the sample by the X-ray heating. In this presentation we will first review the current theoretical models and recent studies in the literature, which predict the sample temperature rise for a given set of beam parameters. It should be noted that a common weakness of these previous studies is that none of them provide actual experimental confirmation. This situation is now remedied in our investigation where the problem of x-ray sample heating is taken up once more. We have theoretically investigated, and at the same time, in addition to the numerical computations, performed experiments to validate the predictions. We have modeled, analyzed and experimentally tested the temperature rise of a 1 mm diameter glass sphere (sample surrogate) exposed to an intense synchrotron X-ray beam, while it is being cooled in a uniform flow of nitrogen gas. The heat transfer, including external convection and internal heat conduction was theoretically modeled using CFD to predict the temperature variation in the sphere during cooling and while it was subjected to an undulator (ID sector 19) X-ray beam at the APS. The surface temperature of the sphere during the X-ray beam heating was measured using the infrared camera measurement technique described in a previous talk. The temperatures from the numerical predictions and experimental measurements are compared and discussed. Additional results are reported for the two different sphere sizes and for two different supporting pin orientations.

Chemical analyses and K-Ar ages of samples from 13 drill holes, Medicine Lake volcano, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.

2006-01-01

Chemical analyses and K-Ar ages are presented for rocks sampled from drill holes at Medicine Lake volcano, northern California. A location map and a cross-section are included, as are separate tables for drill hole information, major and trace element data, and for K-Ar dates.

Groundwater noble gas, age, and temperature signatures in an Alpine watershed: Valuable tools in conceptual model development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manning, Andrew H.; Caine, Jonathan S.

2007-01-01

Bedrock groundwater in alpine watersheds is poorly understood, mainly because of a scarcity of wells in alpine settings. Groundwater noble gas, age, and temperature data were collected from springs and wells with depths of 3–342 m in Handcart Gulch, an alpine watershed in Colorado. Temperature profiles indicate active groundwater circulation to a maximum depth (aquifer thickness) of about 200 m, or about 150 m below the water table. Dissolved noble gas data show unusually high excess air concentrations (>0.02 cm3 STP/g, ΔNe > 170%) in the bedrock, consistent with unusually large seasonal water table fluctuations (up to 50 m) observed in the upper part of the watershed. Apparent 3H/3He ages are positively correlated with sample depth and excess air concentrations. Integrated samples were collected from artesian bedrock wells near the trunk stream and are assumed to approximate flow‐weighted samples reflecting bedrock aquifer mean residence times. Exponential mean ages for these integrated samples are remarkably consistent along the stream, four of five being from 8 to 11 years. The tracer data in combination with other hydrologic and geologic data support a relatively simple conceptual model of groundwater flow in the watershed in which (1) permeability is primarily a function of depth; (2) water table fluctuations increase with distance from the stream; and (3) recharge, aquifer thickness, and porosity are relatively uniform throughout the watershed in spite of the geological complexity of the Proterozoic crystalline rocks that underlie it.

Risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration.

PubMed

Klein, Michael L; Francis, Peter J; Ferris, Frederick L; Hamon, Sara C; Clemons, Traci E

2011-12-01

To design a risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) incorporating phenotypic, demographic, environmental, and genetic risk factors. We evaluated longitudinal data from 2846 participants in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study. At baseline, these individuals had all levels of AMD, ranging from none to unilateral advanced AMD (neovascular or geographic atrophy). Follow-up averaged 9.3 years. We performed a Cox proportional hazards analysis with demographic, environmental, phenotypic, and genetic covariates and constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. Performance of the model was evaluated using the C statistic and the Brier score and externally validated in participants in the Complications of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Prevention Trial. The final model included the following independent variables: age, smoking history, family history of AMD (first-degree member), phenotype based on a modified Age-Related Eye Disease Study simple scale score, and genetic variants CFH Y402H and ARMS2 A69S. The model did well on performance measures, with very good discrimination (C statistic = 0.872) and excellent calibration and overall performance (Brier score at 5 years = 0.08). Successful external validation was performed, and a risk assessment tool was designed for use with or without the genetic component. We constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. The model performed well on measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance and was successfully externally validated. This risk assessment tool is available for online use.

Advanced overlay: sampling and modeling for optimized run-to-run control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramany, Lokesh; Chung, WoongJae; Samudrala, Pavan; Gao, Haiyong; Aung, Nyan; Gomez, Juan Manuel; Gutjahr, Karsten; Park, DongSuk; Snow, Patrick; Garcia-Medina, Miguel; Yap, Lipkong; Demirer, Onur Nihat; Pierson, Bill; Robinson, John C.

2016-03-01

In recent years overlay (OVL) control schemes have become more complicated in order to meet the ever shrinking margins of advanced technology nodes. As a result, this brings up new challenges to be addressed for effective run-to- run OVL control. This work addresses two of these challenges by new advanced analysis techniques: (1) sampling optimization for run-to-run control and (2) bias-variance tradeoff in modeling. The first challenge in a high order OVL control strategy is to optimize the number of measurements and the locations on the wafer, so that the "sample plan" of measurements provides high quality information about the OVL signature on the wafer with acceptable metrology throughput. We solve this tradeoff between accuracy and throughput by using a smart sampling scheme which utilizes various design-based and data-based metrics to increase model accuracy and reduce model uncertainty while avoiding wafer to wafer and within wafer measurement noise caused by metrology, scanner or process. This sort of sampling scheme, combined with an advanced field by field extrapolated modeling algorithm helps to maximize model stability and minimize on product overlay (OPO). Second, the use of higher order overlay models means more degrees of freedom, which enables increased capability to correct for complicated overlay signatures, but also increases sensitivity to process or metrology induced noise. This is also known as the bias-variance trade-off. A high order model that minimizes the bias between the modeled and raw overlay signature on a single wafer will also have a higher variation from wafer to wafer or lot to lot, that is unless an advanced modeling approach is used. In this paper, we characterize the bias-variance trade off to find the optimal scheme. The sampling and modeling solutions proposed in this study are validated by advanced process control (APC) simulations to estimate run-to-run performance, lot-to-lot and wafer-to- wafer model term monitoring to

ACCELERATED FAILURE TIME MODELS PROVIDE A USEFUL STATISTICAL FRAMEWORK FOR AGING RESEARCH

PubMed Central

Swindell, William R.

2009-01-01

Survivorship experiments play a central role in aging research and are performed to evaluate whether interventions alter the rate of aging and increase lifespan. The accelerated failure time (AFT) model is seldom used to analyze survivorship data, but offers a potentially useful statistical approach that is based upon the survival curve rather than the hazard function. In this study, AFT models were used to analyze data from 16 survivorship experiments that evaluated the effects of one or more genetic manipulations on mouse lifespan. Most genetic manipulations were found to have a multiplicative effect on survivorship that is independent of age and well-characterized by the AFT model “deceleration factor”. AFT model deceleration factors also provided a more intuitive measure of treatment effect than the hazard ratio, and were robust to departures from modeling assumptions. Age-dependent treatment effects, when present, were investigated using quantile regression modeling. These results provide an informative and quantitative summary of survivorship data associated with currently known long-lived mouse models. In addition, from the standpoint of aging research, these statistical approaches have appealing properties and provide valuable tools for the analysis of survivorship data. PMID:19007875

Accelerated failure time models provide a useful statistical framework for aging research.

PubMed

Swindell, William R

2009-03-01

Survivorship experiments play a central role in aging research and are performed to evaluate whether interventions alter the rate of aging and increase lifespan. The accelerated failure time (AFT) model is seldom used to analyze survivorship data, but offers a potentially useful statistical approach that is based upon the survival curve rather than the hazard function. In this study, AFT models were used to analyze data from 16 survivorship experiments that evaluated the effects of one or more genetic manipulations on mouse lifespan. Most genetic manipulations were found to have a multiplicative effect on survivorship that is independent of age and well-characterized by the AFT model "deceleration factor". AFT model deceleration factors also provided a more intuitive measure of treatment effect than the hazard ratio, and were robust to departures from modeling assumptions. Age-dependent treatment effects, when present, were investigated using quantile regression modeling. These results provide an informative and quantitative summary of survivorship data associated with currently known long-lived mouse models. In addition, from the standpoint of aging research, these statistical approaches have appealing properties and provide valuable tools for the analysis of survivorship data.

12 CFR Appendix B to Part 230 - Model Clauses and Sample Forms

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Model Clauses and Sample Forms B Appendix B to... SYSTEM TRUTH IN SAVINGS (REGULATION DD) Pt. 230, App. B Appendix B to Part 230—Model Clauses and Sample Forms Table of contents B-1—Model Clauses for Account Disclosures (Section 230.4(b)) B-2—Model Clauses...

Immunohistochemical detection of intrathrombotic fibrocytes and its application to thrombus age estimation in murine deep vein thrombosis model.

PubMed

Nosaka, Mizuho; Ishida, Yuko; Kimura, Akihiko; Kawaguchi, Takashi; Yamamoto, Hiroki; Kuninaka, Yumi; Kondo, Toshikazu

2017-01-01

Deep vein thrombi are dissolved after fibrosis process along with an increase of thrombus age. Fibrocytes are circulating bone marrow-derived cells with mesenchymal features that potentially have a unique and critical function in fibrosis. In this study, a double-color immunofluorescence analysis was carried out by using anti-CD45 and anti-collagen type I antibodies to examine the time-dependent appearance of fibrocytes in the murine model of stasis-induced deep vein thrombosis. The thrombus ages were 1, 3, 5, 7, 10, 14, and 21 days. In a thrombus age of less than 5 days, CD45 + and collagen type I + fibrocytes were never detected. The intrathrombotic fibrocytes were initially observed in thrombi aged 7 days, and their number increased with advances in thrombus age. In a quantitative morphometrical analysis, the average number of intrathrombotic fibrocytes was highest in 14-day-old thrombi, and all of the five samples aged 14 days had the fibrocyte number of more than 25, and in three out of them, the number of intrathrombotic fibrocytes was over 30. On the contrary, in all of thrombus samples with the postligation intervals of 10 and 21 days, the number of intrathrombotic fibrocytes was less than 25. These observations imply that thrombi containing fibrocytes are at least 7 days old and that a fibrocyte number exceeding 30 would indicate the thrombus age of approximately 14 days. Our observations indicate that the detection of fibrocytes could be useful for thrombus age determination.

The Age of the Moon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barboni, M.; Boehnke, P.; Keller, C. B.; Kohl, I. E.; McKeegan, K. D.; Schoene, B.; Young, E. D.

2016-12-01

Knowledge of the age of the Moon is important for understanding the early evolution of the solar system, including the timing of the hypothesized Giant Impact (GI). There have been many attempts to determine the Moon's age, but significant disagreement remains with some authors favoring an early formation and others arguing for a relatively young Moon formed at 4.4 Ga. Attempts to date the GI indirectly through its effects on the asteroid belt are problematic as there is no way to uniquely ascertain the cause of the observed disturbances (e.g., GI or meteorite parent body breakup). Determining the timing of the Lunar Magma Ocean (LMO) crystallization provides a more direct constraint on the age of the Moon, but interpreting the chronologic significance of LMO products is complicated by the fact that the only rock samples available are breccias. A better approach is to construct a model age for the fractional crystallization of the LMO since this should provide a global signature. Zircons from the Apollo samples are ancient, robust against later disturbances, and amenable to precise U-Pb geochronology and Hf isotope analyses that can be used to construct Lu-Hf model ages for the silicate differentiation of the Moon. Previous isotopic studies of Apollo zircons yielded artificially young Hf model ages because of the (then unknown) effect of neutron capture on Hf isotopic ratios generated by long exposure to cosmic radiation, and were unable to determine whether or not the U-Pb dates were concordant due to insufficient precision of in situ dating techniques. We have addressed these issues by carrying out CA-ID-TIMS U-Pb geochronology on Apollo 14 zircon fragments, followed by Hf isotope determination by solution MC-ICP-MS on the same volume of zircon. By constructing Hf model ages from zircons that are concordant to the sub-permil level, we show that the minimum age for the end of differentiation of the LMO, and by extension, the formation of the Moon, is 4.52 ± 0

Sample Size Determination for Regression Models Using Monte Carlo Methods in R

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beaujean, A. Alexander

2014-01-01

A common question asked by researchers using regression models is, What sample size is needed for my study? While there are formulae to estimate sample sizes, their assumptions are often not met in the collected data. A more realistic approach to sample size determination requires more information such as the model of interest, strength of the…

Revisiting dark energy models using differential ages of galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rani, Nisha; Jain, Deepak; Mahajan, Shobhit; Mukherjee, Amitabha; Biesiada, Marek

2017-03-01

In this work, we use a test based on the differential ages of galaxies for distinguishing the dark energy models. As proposed by Jimenez and Loeb in [1], relative ages of galaxies can be used to put constraints on various cosmological parameters. In the same vein, we reconstruct H0dt/dz and its derivative (H0d2t/dz2) using a model independent technique called non-parametric smoothing. Basically, dt/dz is the change in the age of the object as a function of redshift which is directly linked with the Hubble parameter. Hence for reconstruction of this quantity, we use the most recent H(z) data. Further, we calculate H0dt/dz and its derivative for several models like Phantom, Einstein de Sitter (EdS), ΛCDM, Chevallier-Polarski-Linder (CPL) parametrization, Jassal-Bagla-Padmanabhan (JBP) parametrization and Feng-Shen-Li-Li (FSLL) parametrization. We check the consistency of these models with the results of reconstruction obtained in a model independent way from the data. It is observed that H0dt/dz as a tool is not able to distinguish between the ΛCDM, CPL, JBP and FSLL parametrizations but, as expected, EdS and Phantom models show noticeable deviation from the reconstructed results. Further, the derivative of H0dt/dz for various dark energy models is more sensitive at low redshift. It is found that the FSLL model is not consistent with the reconstructed results, however, the ΛCDM model is in concordance with the 3σ region of the reconstruction at redshift z>= 0.3.

Why is the dog an ideal model for aging research?

PubMed

Gilmore, Keiva M; Greer, Kimberly A

2015-11-01

With many caveats to the traditional vertebrate species pertaining to biogerontology investigations, it has been suggested that a most informative model is the one which: 1) examines closely related species, or various members of the same species with naturally occurring lifespan variation, 2) already has adequate medical procedures developed, 3) has a well annotated genome, 4) does not require artificial housing, and can live in its natural environment while being investigated, and 5) allows considerable information to be gathered within a relatively short period of time. The domestic dog unsurprisingly fits each criterion mentioned. The dog has already become a key model system in which to evaluate surgical techniques and novel medications because of the remarkable similarity between human and canine conditions, treatments, and response to therapy. The dog naturally serves as a disease model for study, obviating the need to construct artificial genetically modified examples of disease. Just as the dog offers a natural model for human conditions and diseases, simple observation leads to the conclusion that the canine aging phenotype also mimics that of the human. Genotype information, biochemical information pertaining to the GH/IGF-1 pathway, and some limited longitudinal investigations have begun the establishment of the domestic dog as a model of aging. Although we find that dogs indeed are a model to study aging and there are many independent pieces of canine aging data, there are many more "open" areas, ripe for investigation. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Gender, socioeconomic status, age, and jealousy: emotional responses to infidelity in a national sample.

PubMed

Green, Melanie C; Sabini, John

2006-05-01

The authors used a representative national sample (N = 777) to test the evolutionary hypothesis that men would be more bothered by sexual infidelity and women by emotional infidelity, the Jealousy as a Specific Innate Module (JSIM) effect. Our alternative conceptualization of jealousy suggests that there are distinct emotional components of jealousy that did not evolve differently by gender. The authors looked for effects of age, socioeconomic status (SES), and type of measure (continuous or dichotomous) on jealousy. The authors did not find age or SES effects. Forced-choice items provided support for our alternative view; both genders showed more anger and blame over sexual infidelity but more hurt feelings over emotional infidelity. Continuous measures indicated more emotional response to sexual than emotional infidelity among both genders. 2006 APA, all rights reserved

Aged induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSCs) as a new cellular model for studying premature aging.

PubMed

Petrini, Stefania; Borghi, Rossella; D'Oria, Valentina; Restaldi, Fabrizia; Moreno, Sandra; Novelli, Antonio; Bertini, Enrico; Compagnucci, Claudia

2017-05-31

Nuclear integrity and mechanical stability of the nuclear envelope (NE) are conferred by the nuclear lamina, a meshwork of intermediate filaments composed of A- and B-type lamins, supporting the inner nuclear membrane and playing a pivotal role in chromatin organization and epigenetic regulation. During cell senescence, nuclear alterations also involving NE architecture are widely described. In the present study, we utilized induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) upon prolonged in vitro culture as a model to study aging and investigated the organization and expression pattern of NE major constituents. Confocal and four-dimensional imaging combined with molecular analyses, showed that aged iPSCs are characterized by nuclear dysmorphisms, nucleoskeletal components (lamin A/C-prelamin isoforms, lamin B1, emerin, and nesprin-2) imbalance, leading to impaired nucleo-cytoplasmic MKL1 shuttling, actin polymerization defects, mitochondrial dysfunctions, SIRT7 downregulation and NF-kBp65 hyperactivation. The observed age-related NE features of iPSCs closely resemble those reported for premature aging syndromes (e.g., Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome) and for somatic cell senescence. These findings validate the use of aged iPSCs as a suitable cellular model to study senescence and for investigating therapeutic strategies aimed to treat premature aging.

Aged induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSCs) as a new cellular model for studying premature aging

PubMed Central

D'Oria, Valentina; Restaldi, Fabrizia; Moreno, Sandra; Novelli, Antonio; Bertini, Enrico; Compagnucci, Claudia

2017-01-01

Nuclear integrity and mechanical stability of the nuclear envelope (NE) are conferred by the nuclear lamina, a meshwork of intermediate filaments composed of A- and B-type lamins, supporting the inner nuclear membrane and playing a pivotal role in chromatin organization and epigenetic regulation. During cell senescence, nuclear alterations also involving NE architecture are widely described. In the present study, we utilized induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) upon prolonged in vitro culture as a model to study aging and investigated the organization and expression pattern of NE major constituents. Confocal and four-dimensional imaging combined with molecular analyses, showed that aged iPSCs are characterized by nuclear dysmorphisms, nucleoskeletal components (lamin A/C-prelamin isoforms, lamin B1, emerin, and nesprin-2) imbalance, leading to impaired nucleo-cytoplasmic MKL1 shuttling, actin polymerization defects, mitochondrial dysfunctions, SIRT7 downregulation and NF-kBp65 hyperactivation. The observed age-related NE features of iPSCs closely resemble those reported for premature aging syndromes (e.g., Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome) and for somatic cell senescence. These findings validate the use of aged iPSCs as a suitable cellular model to study senescence and for investigating therapeutic strategies aimed to treat premature aging. PMID:28562315

Investigating the prostate specific antigen, body mass index and age relationship: is an age-BMI-adjusted PSA model clinically useful?

PubMed

Harrison, Sean; Tilling, Kate; Turner, Emma L; Lane, J Athene; Simpkin, Andrew; Davis, Michael; Donovan, Jenny; Hamdy, Freddie C; Neal, David E; Martin, Richard M

2016-12-01

Previous studies indicate a possible inverse relationship between prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and body mass index (BMI), and a positive relationship between PSA and age. We investigated the associations between age, BMI, PSA, and screen-detected prostate cancer to determine whether an age-BMI-adjusted PSA model would be clinically useful for detecting prostate cancer. Cross-sectional analysis nested within the UK ProtecT trial of treatments for localized cancer. Of 18,238 men aged 50-69 years, 9,457 men without screen-detected prostate cancer (controls) and 1,836 men with prostate cancer (cases) met inclusion criteria: no history of prostate cancer or diabetes; PSA < 10 ng/ml; BMI between 15 and 50 kg/m 2 . Multivariable linear regression models were used to investigate the relationship between log-PSA, age, and BMI in all men, controlling for prostate cancer status. In the 11,293 included men, the median PSA was 1.2 ng/ml (IQR: 0.7-2.6); mean age 61.7 years (SD 4.9); and mean BMI 26.8 kg/m 2 (SD 3.7). There were a 5.1% decrease in PSA per 5 kg/m 2 increase in BMI (95% CI 3.4-6.8) and a 13.6% increase in PSA per 5-year increase in age (95% CI 12.0-15.1). Interaction tests showed no evidence for different associations between age, BMI, and PSA in men above and below 3.0 ng/ml (all p for interaction >0.2). The age-BMI-adjusted PSA model performed as well as an age-adjusted model based on National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines at detecting prostate cancer. Age and BMI were associated with small changes in PSA. An age-BMI-adjusted PSA model is no more clinically useful for detecting prostate cancer than current NICE guidelines. Future studies looking at the effect of different variables on PSA, independent of their effect on prostate cancer, may improve the discrimination of PSA for prostate cancer.

[The Influence of Subjective Health Status, Post-Traumatic Growth, and Social Support on Successful Aging in Middle-Aged Women].

PubMed

Lee, Seung Hee; Jang, Hyung Suk; Yang, Young Hee

2016-10-01

This study was done to investigate factors influencing successful aging in middle-aged women. A convenience sample of 103 middle-aged women was selected from the community. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire and analyzed using descriptive statistics, two-sample t-test, one-way ANOVA, Kruskal Wallis test, Pearson correlations, Spearman correlations and multiple regression analysis with the SPSS/WIN 22.0 program. Results of regression analysis showed that significant factors influencing successful aging were post-traumatic growth and social support. This regression model explained 48% of the variance in successful aging. Findings show that the concept 'post-traumatic growth' is an important factor influencing successful aging in middle-aged women. In addition, social support from friends/co-workers had greater influence on successful aging than social support from family. Thus, we need to consider the positive impact of post-traumatic growth and increase the chances of social participation in a successful aging program for middle-aged women.

The redshift distribution of cosmological samples: a forward modeling approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herbel, Jörg; Kacprzak, Tomasz; Amara, Adam

Determining the redshift distribution n ( z ) of galaxy samples is essential for several cosmological probes including weak lensing. For imaging surveys, this is usually done using photometric redshifts estimated on an object-by-object basis. We present a new approach for directly measuring the global n ( z ) of cosmological galaxy samples, including uncertainties, using forward modeling. Our method relies on image simulations produced using \\textsc(UFig) (Ultra Fast Image Generator) and on ABC (Approximate Bayesian Computation) within the MCCL (Monte-Carlo Control Loops) framework. The galaxy population is modeled using parametric forms for the luminosity functions, spectral energy distributions, sizesmore » and radial profiles of both blue and red galaxies. We apply exactly the same analysis to the real data and to the simulated images, which also include instrumental and observational effects. By adjusting the parameters of the simulations, we derive a set of acceptable models that are statistically consistent with the data. We then apply the same cuts to the simulations that were used to construct the target galaxy sample in the real data. The redshifts of the galaxies in the resulting simulated samples yield a set of n ( z ) distributions for the acceptable models. We demonstrate the method by determining n ( z ) for a cosmic shear like galaxy sample from the 4-band Subaru Suprime-Cam data in the COSMOS field. We also complement this imaging data with a spectroscopic calibration sample from the VVDS survey. We compare our resulting posterior n ( z ) distributions to the one derived from photometric redshifts estimated using 36 photometric bands in COSMOS and find good agreement. This offers good prospects for applying our approach to current and future large imaging surveys.« less

[Progress of PTSD symptoms following workplace robbery: gender and age differences in a sample of bank employees].

PubMed

Fichera, G P; Neri, L; Musti, M; Coggiola, M; Russignaga, D; Costa, G

2011-01-01

This study is aimed at assessing gender-and age-related differences in PTSD symptoms in bank employees exposed to robbery and subsequently involved in Psychological Debriefing (PD). The study included 49 females and 51 males (average age 40.9). Impact of Event Scale (IES) was administered before PD (T0) and after 45 days (T1); Post-traumatic Checklist (PCL) only at T1. The sample exhibited a significant decrease in IES score regardless of gender. Female employees obtained higher IES and PCL scores. No age differences were observed. Consistent with most studies, our results may be explained by a higher susceptibility in women.

Love Kills:. Simulations in Penna Ageing Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stauffer, Dietrich; Cebrat, Stanisław; Penna, T. J. P.; Sousa, A. O.

The standard Penna ageing model with sexual reproduction is enlarged by adding additional bit-strings for love: Marriage happens only if the male love strings are sufficiently different from the female ones. We simulate at what level of required difference the population dies out.

Greedy Sampling and Incremental Surrogate Model-Based Tailoring of Aeroservoelastic Model Database for Flexible Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yi; Pant, Kapil; Brenner, Martin J.; Ouellette, Jeffrey A.

2018-01-01

This paper presents a data analysis and modeling framework to tailor and develop linear parameter-varying (LPV) aeroservoelastic (ASE) model database for flexible aircrafts in broad 2D flight parameter space. The Kriging surrogate model is constructed using ASE models at a fraction of grid points within the original model database, and then the ASE model at any flight condition can be obtained simply through surrogate model interpolation. The greedy sampling algorithm is developed to select the next sample point that carries the worst relative error between the surrogate model prediction and the benchmark model in the frequency domain among all input-output channels. The process is iterated to incrementally improve surrogate model accuracy till a pre-determined tolerance or iteration budget is met. The methodology is applied to the ASE model database of a flexible aircraft currently being tested at NASA/AFRC for flutter suppression and gust load alleviation. Our studies indicate that the proposed method can reduce the number of models in the original database by 67%. Even so the ASE models obtained through Kriging interpolation match the model in the original database constructed directly from the physics-based tool with the worst relative error far below 1%. The interpolated ASE model exhibits continuously-varying gains along a set of prescribed flight conditions. More importantly, the selected grid points are distributed non-uniformly in the parameter space, a) capturing the distinctly different dynamic behavior and its dependence on flight parameters, and b) reiterating the need and utility for adaptive space sampling techniques for ASE model database compaction. The present framework is directly extendible to high-dimensional flight parameter space, and can be used to guide the ASE model development, model order reduction, robust control synthesis and novel vehicle design of flexible aircraft.

Bayesian Estimation of the DINA Model with Gibbs Sampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Culpepper, Steven Andrew

2015-01-01

A Bayesian model formulation of the deterministic inputs, noisy "and" gate (DINA) model is presented. Gibbs sampling is employed to simulate from the joint posterior distribution of item guessing and slipping parameters, subject attribute parameters, and latent class probabilities. The procedure extends concepts in Béguin and Glas,…

Age and Pathway Diagnostics for a Stratospheric General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoeberl, Mark R.; Douglass, Anne R.; Polansky, Brian

2004-01-01

Using a variety of age diagnostic experiments we examine the stratospheric age spectrum of the Goddard Finite Volume Generd Circulation Model. Pulse tracer release age-of-air computations are compared to forward and backward trajectory computations. These comparisons show good agreement, and the age-of-air also compares well with observed long lived tracers. Pathway diagnostics show how air arrives in the lowermost stratosphere and the age structure of that region. Using tracers with different lifetimes we can estimate the age spectrum - this technique should be useful in diagnosing transport from various trace gas observations.

Pattern sampling for etch model calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weisbuch, François; Lutich, Andrey; Schatz, Jirka

2017-06-01

Successful patterning requires good control of the photolithography and etch processes. While compact litho models, mainly based on rigorous physics, can predict very well the contours printed in photoresist, pure empirical etch models are less accurate and more unstable. Compact etch models are based on geometrical kernels to compute the litho-etch biases that measure the distance between litho and etch contours. The definition of the kernels as well as the choice of calibration patterns is critical to get a robust etch model. This work proposes to define a set of independent and anisotropic etch kernels -"internal, external, curvature, Gaussian, z_profile" - designed to capture the finest details of the resist contours and represent precisely any etch bias. By evaluating the etch kernels on various structures it is possible to map their etch signatures in a multi-dimensional space and analyze them to find an optimal sampling of structures to train an etch model. The method was specifically applied to a contact layer containing many different geometries and was used to successfully select appropriate calibration structures. The proposed kernels evaluated on these structures were combined to train an etch model significantly better than the standard one. We also illustrate the usage of the specific kernel "z_profile" which adds a third dimension to the description of the resist profile.

Annealed Importance Sampling for Neural Mass Models

PubMed Central

Penny, Will; Sengupta, Biswa

2016-01-01

Neural Mass Models provide a compact description of the dynamical activity of cell populations in neocortical regions. Moreover, models of regional activity can be connected together into networks, and inferences made about the strength of connections, using M/EEG data and Bayesian inference. To date, however, Bayesian methods have been largely restricted to the Variational Laplace (VL) algorithm which assumes that the posterior distribution is Gaussian and finds model parameters that are only locally optimal. This paper explores the use of Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) to address these restrictions. We implement AIS using proposals derived from Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) which uses local gradient and curvature information for efficient exploration of parameter space. In terms of the estimation of Bayes factors, VL and AIS agree about which model is best but report different degrees of belief. Additionally, AIS finds better model parameters and we find evidence of non-Gaussianity in their posterior distribution. PMID:26942606

Age Diversity in the Workplace.

PubMed

Yang, Jie; Matz-Costa, Christina

2017-01-01

Although having a younger supervisor or a supervisor of a similar age runs counter to the traditional older supervisor-younger subordinate norm, it is becoming increasingly common in the 21st-century workplace. The current study uses theories of relational demography and relational norms as well as Selective Optimization with Compensation theory and the job demands-resources model to understand how relational age within supervisor-employee dyads influences workers' engagement. Cross-sectional data from a multiworksite (U.S.-based) sample of 2,195 workers aged 18 to 81 years were used to estimate ordinary least squares regression models. After accounting for a variety of factors that could influence engagement levels (i.e., demographics, health status, and job or personal resources), findings indicated that employees with similar-age supervisors were less engaged than employees with older supervisors. Moreover, while employees who did not know the ages of their supervisors were just as engaged as employees with older supervisors. Implications for engaging an age-diverse workforce are discussed.

Modelling detrital coral grain-size and age: Insights from sediment abrasion process of Yongle Atoll of South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Zou, X.; Ge, C.; Tan, M.; Wang, C.

2017-12-01

Reef islands situated on the rims of atolls are composed almost exclusively of bioclastic materials locally supplied from adjacent coral reefs. Major skeletal component of these islands include coral, coralline algae, mollusks and foraminifera, produced in adjacent reefs. As the island builder, the bioclastic material is the sedimentary products, which also is the point of penetration to decipher the process. The bioclast of coral islands decrease in size with the transportation process. The grain-size provides a proxy record for the abrasion history of the unconsolidated sediment. The 230Th age of coral record the abrasion time. We hereby present a model to calculate the abrasion rate based on the data of 230Th age and grain-size of Yongle Atoll of Xisha Island, South China Sea. The grain size pattern in Yongle Atoll environment have confirm that the coral article diminution behave exponentially. The sediment composition of Yongle Atoll is identified, coral is dominant sediment constituent and the Th230 age is shown to exert an age distribution characteristics of coral detritus. We illustrate this approach by calculate the coral debris age of Xude Atoll, which located near the Yongle Atoll and then by comparing actual measured age and calculated age and to explore the dependence of the model. Observed 230 Th ages are well matched by predicted ages for medium age sediment. A poorer match for young and old sediment may result from some combination of large analytical uncertainties in the detrital ages and inhomogeneous erosion rates within the atoll. Such mismatches emphasize the need for more accurate kinematic models and for sampling strategies that are adapted to atoll-specific geologic and geomorphic conditions. Results presented constitute important new insights into regional sediment abrasion processed and on the evolution of coral atoll islands.

Ages and transit times as important diagnostics of model performance for predicting carbon dynamics in terrestrial vegetation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceballos-Núñez, Verónika; Richardson, Andrew D.; Sierra, Carlos A.

2018-03-01

The global carbon cycle is strongly controlled by the source/sink strength of vegetation as well as the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to retain this carbon. These dynamics, as well as processes such as the mixing of old and newly fixed carbon, have been studied using ecosystem models, but different assumptions regarding the carbon allocation strategies and other model structures may result in highly divergent model predictions. We assessed the influence of three different carbon allocation schemes on the C cycling in vegetation. First, we described each model with a set of ordinary differential equations. Second, we used published measurements of ecosystem C compartments from the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site to find suitable parameters for the different model structures. And third, we calculated C stocks, release fluxes, radiocarbon values (based on the bomb spike), ages, and transit times. We obtained model simulations in accordance with the available data, but the time series of C in foliage and wood need to be complemented with other ecosystem compartments in order to reduce the high parameter collinearity that we observed, and reduce model equifinality. Although the simulated C stocks in ecosystem compartments were similar, the different model structures resulted in very different predictions of age and transit time distributions. In particular, the inclusion of two storage compartments resulted in the prediction of a system mean age that was 12-20 years older than in the models with one or no storage compartments. The age of carbon in the wood compartment of this model was also distributed towards older ages, whereas fast cycling compartments had an age distribution that did not exceed 5 years. As expected, models with C distributed towards older ages also had longer transit times. These results suggest that ages and transit times, which can be indirectly measured using isotope tracers, serve as important diagnostics of model structure

Aging as a predictor of nursing workload in Intensive Care Unit: results from a Brazilian Sample.

PubMed

Ferretti-Rebustini, Renata Eloah de Lucena; Nogueira, Lilia de Souza; Silva, Rita de Cassia Gengo E; Poveda, Vanessa de Brito; Machado, Selma Pinheiro; Oliveira, Elaine Machado de; Andolhe, Rafaela; Padilha, Katia Grillo

2017-04-03

Verify if aging is an independent predictor of NW in ICU, according to age groups, and its predictive value as a determinant of NW in ICU. Study was conducted from 2012 to 2016. A convenience sample composed by patients (age ≥ 18) admitted to nine ICU belonging to a Brazilian hospital, was analyzed. Age was assumed as an independent variable and NW (measured by the Nursing Activities Score - NAS) as dependent. Linear regression model and ROC curve were used for the analysis. 890 participants (361 older people), mostly males (58.1%). The mean NAS score was higher among older participants in comparison to adults (p=0.004) but not within categories of aging (p=0.697). Age was responsible for 0.6% of NAS score. Each year of age increases NAS score in 0.081 points (p=0.015). However, age was not a good predictor of NAS score (AUC = 0.394; p=0.320). The care of older people in ICU is associated with an increase in NW, compared to adults. Aging can be considered an associated factor but not a good predictor of NW in ICU. Verificar si el envejecimiento es un predictor independiente de la Carga de Trabajo de Enfermería (CTE) en la Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos (UCI), según grupos etarios y su valor predictivo como determinante de la CTE en la UCI. Se analizó una muestra de conveniencia compuesta por pacientes (edad ≥ 18) ingresados en nueve UCI pertenecientes a un hospital brasileño. La edad se asumió como variable independiente y como variable dependiente la carga de trabajo de enfermería -medida por el sistema Nursing Activities Score (NAS) de puntuación de actividades de enfermería. Para el análisis, se utilizaron el modelo de regresión lineal y la curva ROC. 890 participantes (361 adultos mayores), en su mayoría varones (58,1%). La puntuación NAS promedio fue mayor entre los participantes adultos mayores en comparación con los adultos (p=0,004), pero no en las categorías de envejecimiento (p=0,697). La edad fue responsable del 0,6% de la puntuaci

Some guidelines for structural equation modelling in cognitive neuroscience: the case of Charlton et al.'s study on white matter integrity and cognitive ageing.

PubMed

Penke, Lars; Deary, Ian J

2010-09-01

Charlton et al. (2008) (Charlton, R.A., Landua, S., Schiavone, F., Barrick, T.R., Clark, C.A., Markus, H.S., Morris, R.G.A., 2008. Structural equation modelling investigation of age-related variance in executive function and DTI-measured white matter change. Neurobiol. Aging 29, 1547-1555) presented a model that suggests a specific age-related effect of white matter integrity on working memory. We illustrate potential pitfalls of structural equation modelling by criticizing their model for (a) its neglect of latent variables, (b) its complexity, (c) its questionable causal assumptions, (d) the use of empirical model reduction, (e) the mix-up of theoretical perspectives, and (f) the failure to compare alternative models. We show that a more parsimonious model, based solely on the well-established general factor of cognitive ability, fits their data at least as well. Importantly, when modelled this way there is no support for a role of white matter integrity in cognitive aging in this sample, indicating that their conclusion is strongly dependent on how the data are analysed. We suggest that evidence from more conclusive study designs is needed. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling developmental changes in functional capacities and soccer-specific skills in male players aged 11-17 years.