Science.gov

Sample records for agent-based bank runs

  1. Teaching Bank Runs through Films

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flynn, David T.

    2009-01-01

    The author advocates the use of films to supplement textbook treatments of bank runs and panics in money and banking or general banking classes. Modern students, particularly those in developed countries, tend to be unfamiliar with potential fragilities of financial systems such as a lack of deposit insurance or other safety net mechanisms. Films…

  2. Analyzing the Validity of Relationship Banking through Agent-based Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishikido, Yukihito; Takahashi, Hiroshi

    This article analyzes the validity of relationship banking through agent-based modeling. In the analysis, we especially focus on the relationship between economic conditions and both lenders' and borrowers' behaviors. As a result of intensive experiments, we made the following interesting findings: (1) Relationship banking contributes to reducing bad loan; (2) relationship banking is more effective in enhancing the market growth compared to transaction banking, when borrowers' sales scale is large; (3) keener competition among lenders may bring inefficiency to the market.

  3. Teaching Bank Runs with Classroom Experiments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Balkenborg, Dieter; Kaplan, Todd; Miller, Timothy

    2011-01-01

    Once relegated to cinema or history lectures, bank runs have become a modern phenomenon that captures the interest of students. In this article, the authors explain a simple classroom experiment based on the Diamond-Dybvig model (1983) to demonstrate how a bank run--a seemingly irrational event--can occur rationally. They then present possible…

  4. Social network structures and bank runs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Shouwei; Li, Jiaheng

    2016-05-01

    This paper investigates the impact of social network structures of depositors on bank runs. The analyzed network structures include random networks, small-world networks and scale-free networks. Simulation results show that the probability of bank run occurrence in random networks is larger than that in small-world networks, but the probability of bank run occurrence in scale-free networks drops from the highest to the lowest among the three types of network structures with the increase of the proportion of impatient depositors. The average degree of depositor networks has a significant impact on bank runs, but this impact is related to the proportion of impatient depositors and the confidence levels of depositors in banks.

  5. 12 CFR 225.14 - Expedited action for certain bank acquisitions by well-run bank holding companies.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Expedited action for certain bank acquisitions by well-run bank holding companies. 225.14 Section 225.14 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM... certain bank acquisitions by well-run bank holding companies. (a) Filing of notice—(1)...

  6. 12 CFR 225.14 - Expedited action for certain bank acquisitions by well-run bank holding companies.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Expedited action for certain bank acquisitions by well-run bank holding companies. 225.14 Section 225.14 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM... certain bank acquisitions by well-run bank holding companies. (a) Filing of notice—(1)...

  7. 12 CFR 225.14 - Expedited action for certain bank acquisitions by well-run bank holding companies.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Expedited action for certain bank acquisitions by well-run bank holding companies. 225.14 Section 225.14 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM... action for certain bank acquisitions by well-run bank holding companies. (a) Filing of...

  8. 12 CFR 225.14 - Expedited action for certain bank acquisitions by well-run bank holding companies.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Expedited action for certain bank acquisitions by well-run bank holding companies. 225.14 Section 225.14 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM... action for certain bank acquisitions by well-run bank holding companies. (a) Filing of...

  9. 12 CFR 225.14 - Expedited action for certain bank acquisitions by well-run bank holding companies.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Expedited action for certain bank acquisitions by well-run bank holding companies. 225.14 Section 225.14 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM... certain bank acquisitions by well-run bank holding companies. (a) Filing of notice—(1)...

  10. Correlated Observations, the Law of Small Numbers and Bank Runs.

    PubMed

    Horváth, Gergely; Kiss, Hubert János

    2016-01-01

    Empirical descriptions and studies suggest that generally depositors observe a sample of previous decisions before deciding if to keep their funds deposited or to withdraw them. These observed decisions may exhibit different degrees of correlation across depositors. In our model depositors decide sequentially and are assumed to follow the law of small numbers in the sense that they believe that a bank run is underway if the number of observed withdrawals in their sample is large. Theoretically, with highly correlated samples and infinite depositors runs occur with certainty, while with random samples it needs not be the case, as for many parameter settings the likelihood of bank runs is zero. We investigate the intermediate cases and find that i) decreasing the correlation and ii) increasing the sample size reduces the likelihood of bank runs, ceteris paribus. Interestingly, the multiplicity of equilibria, a feature of the canonical Diamond-Dybvig model that we use also, disappears almost completely in our setup. Our results have relevant policy implications. PMID:27035435

  11. Correlated Observations, the Law of Small Numbers and Bank Runs

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Empirical descriptions and studies suggest that generally depositors observe a sample of previous decisions before deciding if to keep their funds deposited or to withdraw them. These observed decisions may exhibit different degrees of correlation across depositors. In our model depositors decide sequentially and are assumed to follow the law of small numbers in the sense that they believe that a bank run is underway if the number of observed withdrawals in their sample is large. Theoretically, with highly correlated samples and infinite depositors runs occur with certainty, while with random samples it needs not be the case, as for many parameter settings the likelihood of bank runs is zero. We investigate the intermediate cases and find that i) decreasing the correlation and ii) increasing the sample size reduces the likelihood of bank runs, ceteris paribus. Interestingly, the multiplicity of equilibria, a feature of the canonical Diamond-Dybvig model that we use also, disappears almost completely in our setup. Our results have relevant policy implications. PMID:27035435

  12. Capital market based warning indicators of bank runs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vakhtina, Elena; Wosnitza, Jan Henrik

    2015-01-01

    In this investigation, we examine the univariate as well as the multivariate capabilities of the log-periodic [super-exponential] power law (LPPL) for the prediction of bank runs. The research is built upon daily CDS spreads of 40 international banks for the period from June 2007 to March 2010, i.e. at the heart of the global financial crisis. For this time period, 20 of the financial institutions received federal bailouts and are labeled as defaults while the remaining institutions are categorized as non-defaults. The employed multivariate pattern recognition approach represents a modification of the CORA3 algorithm. The approach is found to be robust regardless of reasonable changes of its inputs. Despite the fact that distinct alarm indices for banks do not clearly demonstrate predictive capabilities of the LPPL, the synchronized alarm indices confirm the multivariate discriminative power of LPPL patterns in CDS spread developments acknowledged by bootstrap intervals with 70% confidence level.

  13. 12 CFR 225.23 - Expedited action for certain nonbanking proposals by well-run bank holding companies.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Expedited action for certain nonbanking proposals by well-run bank holding companies. 225.23 Section 225.23 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM....23 Expedited action for certain nonbanking proposals by well-run bank holding companies. (a)...

  14. 12 CFR 225.23 - Expedited action for certain nonbanking proposals by well-run bank holding companies.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Expedited action for certain nonbanking proposals by well-run bank holding companies. 225.23 Section 225.23 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM....23 Expedited action for certain nonbanking proposals by well-run bank holding companies. (a)...

  15. 12 CFR 225.23 - Expedited action for certain nonbanking proposals by well-run bank holding companies.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Expedited action for certain nonbanking proposals by well-run bank holding companies. 225.23 Section 225.23 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM... Companies § 225.23 Expedited action for certain nonbanking proposals by well-run bank holding companies....

  16. 12 CFR 225.23 - Expedited action for certain nonbanking proposals by well-run bank holding companies.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Expedited action for certain nonbanking proposals by well-run bank holding companies. 225.23 Section 225.23 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM... Companies § 225.23 Expedited action for certain nonbanking proposals by well-run bank holding companies....

  17. 12 CFR 225.23 - Expedited action for certain nonbanking proposals by well-run bank holding companies.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Expedited action for certain nonbanking proposals by well-run bank holding companies. 225.23 Section 225.23 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM....23 Expedited action for certain nonbanking proposals by well-run bank holding companies. (a)...

  18. Reducing complexity in an agent based reaction model-Benefits and limitations of simplifications in relation to run time and system level output.

    PubMed

    Rhodes, David M; Holcombe, Mike; Qwarnstrom, Eva E

    2016-09-01

    Agent based modelling is a methodology for simulating a variety of systems across a broad spectrum of fields. However, due to the complexity of the systems it is often impossible or impractical to model them at a one to one scale. In this paper we use a simple reaction rate model implemented using the FLAME framework to test the impact of common methods for reducing model complexity such as reducing scale, increasing iteration duration and reducing message overheads. We demonstrate that such approaches can have significant impact on simulation runtime albeit with increasing risk of aberrant system behaviour and errors, as the complexity of the model is reduced. PMID:27297544

  19. Bank Runs and the Accounting for Illiquid Assets in Financial Institutions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meder, Anthony; Schwartz, Steven T.; Wu, Mark; Young, Richard A.

    2014-01-01

    Financial services are an increasingly important sector in modern economies, yet many accounting and auditing texts focus on manufacturing and retailing. This teaching note describes the role of financial institutions in transforming long-term, difficult-to-sell assets into short-term bank accounts. This is referred to as liquidity transformation.…

  20. SIMULATION RESULTS OF RUNNING THE AGS MMPS, BY STORING ENERGY IN CAPACITOR BANKS.

    SciTech Connect

    MARNERIS, I.

    2006-09-01

    The Brookhaven AGS is a strong focusing accelerator which is used to accelerate protons and various heavy ion species to equivalent maximum proton energy of 29 GeV. The AGS Main Magnet Power Supply (MMPS) is a thyristor control supply rated at 5500 Amps, +/-go00 Volts. The peak magnet power is 49.5 Mwatts. The power supply is fed from a motor/generator manufactured by Siemens. The motor is rated at 9 MW, input voltage 3 phase 13.8 KV 60 Hz. The generator is rated at 50 MVA its output voltage is 3 phase 7500 Volts. Thus the peak power requirements come from the stored energy in the rotor of the motor/generator. The rotor changes speed by about +/-2.5% of its nominal speed of 1200 Revolutions per Minute. The reason the power supply is powered by the Generator is that the local power company (LIPA) can not sustain power swings of +/- 50 MW in 0.5 sec if the power supply were to be interfaced directly with the AC lines. The Motor Generator is about 45 years old and Siemens is not manufacturing similar machines in the future. As a result we are looking at different ways of storing energy and being able to utilize it for our application. This paper will present simulations of a power supply where energy is stored in capacitor banks. The simulation program used is called PSIM Version 6.1. The control system of the power supply will also be presented. The average power from LIPA into the power supply will be kept constant during the pulsing of the magnets at +/-50 MW. The reactive power will also be kept constant below 1.5 MVAR. Waveforms will be presented.

  1. Agent-Based Literacy Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McEneaney, John E.

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this theoretical essay is to explore the limits of traditional conceptualizations of reader and text and to propose a more general theory based on the concept of a literacy agent. The proposed theoretical perspective subsumes concepts from traditional theory and aims to account for literacy online. The agent-based literacy theory…

  2. Agent-based forward analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Kerekes, Ryan A.; Jiao, Yu; Shankar, Mallikarjun; Potok, Thomas E.; Lusk, Rick M.

    2008-01-01

    We propose software agent-based "forward analysis" for efficient information retrieval in a network of sensing devices. In our approach, processing is pushed to the data at the edge of the network via intelligent software agents rather than pulling data to a central facility for processing. The agents are deployed with a specific query and perform varying levels of analysis of the data, communicating with each other and sending only relevant information back across the network. We demonstrate our concept in the context of face recognition using a wireless test bed comprised of PDA cell phones and laptops. We show that agent-based forward analysis can provide a significant increase in retrieval speed while decreasing bandwidth usage and information overload at the central facility. n

  3. Adding ecosystem function to agent-based land use models

    PubMed Central

    Yadav, V.; Del Grosso, S.J.; Parton, W.J.; Malanson, G.P.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to examine issues in the inclusion of simulations of ecosystem functions in agent-based models of land use decision-making. The reasons for incorporating these simulations include local interests in land fertility and global interests in carbon sequestration. Biogeochemical models are needed in order to calculate such fluxes. The Century model is described with particular attention to the land use choices that it can encompass. When Century is applied to a land use problem the combinatorial choices lead to a potentially unmanageable number of simulation runs. Century is also parameter-intensive. Three ways of including Century output in agent-based models, ranging from separately calculated look-up tables to agents running Century within the simulation, are presented. The latter may be most efficient, but it moves the computing costs to where they are most problematic. Concern for computing costs should not be a roadblock. PMID:26191077

  4. 78 FR 47217 - Proposed Supervisory Guidance on Implementing Dodd-Frank Act Company-Run Stress Tests for Banking...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-08-05

    ... ``covered bank'' under the FDIC Annual Stress Test Rule. 12 CFR 325.202. \\2\\ See 77 FR 61238 (October 9, 2012) (OCC final rule), 77 FR 62378 (October 12, 2012) (Board final rule), and 77 FR 62417 (October 15....\\4\\ \\3\\ In particular, companies should conduct tests in accordance with 77 FR 29458,...

  5. 78 FR 59791 - Annual Company-Run Stress Tests at Banking Organizations With Total Consolidated Assets of More...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-09-30

    ...).\\3\\ \\3\\ See 77 FR 62378 (October 12, 2012) (codified at 12 CFR part, 252 subpart H) (stress test rule... these companies use in reporting the results of their company-run stress tests (FR Y-16),\\5\\ which are being finalized at this time, are shorter and simpler than the corresponding regulatory report, the FR...

  6. An agent based model of genotype editing

    SciTech Connect

    Rocha, L. M.; Huang, C. F.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents our investigation on an agent-based model of Genotype Editing. This model is based on several characteristics that are gleaned from the RNA editing system as observed in several organisms. The incorporation of editing mechanisms in an evolutionary agent-based model provides a means for evolving agents with heterogenous post-transcriptional processes. The study of this agent-based genotype-editing model has shed some light into the evolutionary implications of RNA editing as well as established an advantageous evolutionary computation algorithm for machine learning. We expect that our proposed model may both facilitate determining the evolutionary role of RNA editing in biology, and advance the current state of research in agent-based optimization.

  7. From Compartmentalized to Agent-based Models of Epidemics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macal, Charles

    Supporting decisions in the throes of an impending epidemic poses distinct technical challenges arising from the uncertainties in modeling disease propagation processes and the need for producing timely answers to policy questions. Compartmental models, because of their relative simplicity, produce timely information, but often do not include the level of fidelity of the information needed to answer specific policy questions. Highly granular agent-based simulations produce an extensive amount of information on all aspects of a simulated epidemic, yet complex models often cannot produce this information in a timely manner. We propose a two-phased approach to addressing the tradeoff between model complexity and the speed at which models can be used to answer to questions about an impending outbreak. In the first phase, in advance of an epidemic, ensembles of highly granular agent-based simulations are run over the entire parameter space, characterizing the space of possible model outcomes and uncertainties. Meta-models are derived that characterize model outcomes as dependent on uncertainties in disease parameters, data, and structural relationships. In the second phase, envisioned as during an epidemic, the meta-model is run in combination with compartmental models, which can be run very quickly. Model outcomes are compared as a basis for establishing uncertainties in model forecasts. This work is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract number DE-AC02-06CH11357 and National Science Foundation (NSF) RAPID Award DEB-1516428.

  8. An Agent Based Model for Social Class Emergence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Xiaoxiang; Rodriguez Segura, Daniel; Lin, Fei; Mazilu, Irina

    We present an open system agent-based model to analyze the effects of education and the society-specific wealth transactions on the emergence of social classes. Building on previous studies, we use realistic functions to model how years of education affect the income level. Numerical simulations show that the fraction of an individual's total transactions that is invested rather than consumed can cause wealth gaps between different income brackets in the long run. In an attempt to incorporate the network effects, we also explore how the probability of interactions among agents depending on the spread of their income brackets affects wealth distribution.

  9. Agent-based Modeling with MATSim for Hazards Evacuation Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, J. M.; Ng, P.; Henry, K.; Peters, J.; Wood, N. J.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard evacuation planning requires robust modeling tools and techniques, such as least cost distance or agent-based modeling, to gain an understanding of a community's potential to reach safety before event (e.g. tsunami) arrival. Least cost distance modeling provides a static view of the evacuation landscape with an estimate of travel times to safety from each location in the hazard space. With this information, practitioners can assess a community's overall ability for timely evacuation. More information may be needed if evacuee congestion creates bottlenecks in the flow patterns. Dynamic movement patterns are best explored with agent-based models that simulate movement of and interaction between individual agents as evacuees through the hazard space, reacting to potential congestion areas along the evacuation route. The multi-agent transport simulation model MATSim is an agent-based modeling framework that can be applied to hazard evacuation planning. Developed jointly by universities in Switzerland and Germany, MATSim is open-source software written in Java and freely available for modification or enhancement. We successfully used MATSim to illustrate tsunami evacuation challenges in two island communities in California, USA, that are impacted by limited escape routes. However, working with MATSim's data preparation, simulation, and visualization modules in an integrated development environment requires a significant investment of time to develop the software expertise to link the modules and run a simulation. To facilitate our evacuation research, we packaged the MATSim modules into a single application tailored to the needs of the hazards community. By exposing the modeling parameters of interest to researchers in an intuitive user interface and hiding the software complexities, we bring agent-based modeling closer to practitioners and provide access to the powerful visual and analytic information that this modeling can provide.

  10. Agent Based Modeling Applications for Geosciences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stein, J. S.

    2004-12-01

    Agent-based modeling techniques have successfully been applied to systems in which complex behaviors or outcomes arise from varied interactions between individuals in the system. Each individual interacts with its environment, as well as with other individuals, by following a set of relatively simple rules. Traditionally this "bottom-up" modeling approach has been applied to problems in the fields of economics and sociology, but more recently has been introduced to various disciplines in the geosciences. This technique can help explain the origin of complex processes from a relatively simple set of rules, incorporate large and detailed datasets when they exist, and simulate the effects of extreme events on system-wide behavior. Some of the challenges associated with this modeling method include: significant computational requirements in order to keep track of thousands to millions of agents, methods and strategies of model validation are lacking, as is a formal methodology for evaluating model uncertainty. Challenges specific to the geosciences, include how to define agents that control water, contaminant fluxes, climate forcing and other physical processes and how to link these "geo-agents" into larger agent-based simulations that include social systems such as demographics economics and regulations. Effective management of limited natural resources (such as water, hydrocarbons, or land) requires an understanding of what factors influence the demand for these resources on a regional and temporal scale. Agent-based models can be used to simulate this demand across a variety of sectors under a range of conditions and determine effective and robust management policies and monitoring strategies. The recent focus on the role of biological processes in the geosciences is another example of an area that could benefit from agent-based applications. A typical approach to modeling the effect of biological processes in geologic media has been to represent these processes in

  11. Agent-Based Modeling in Systems Pharmacology.

    PubMed

    Cosgrove, J; Butler, J; Alden, K; Read, M; Kumar, V; Cucurull-Sanchez, L; Timmis, J; Coles, M

    2015-11-01

    Modeling and simulation (M&S) techniques provide a platform for knowledge integration and hypothesis testing to gain insights into biological systems that would not be possible a priori. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is an M&S technique that focuses on describing individual components rather than homogenous populations. This tutorial introduces ABM to systems pharmacologists, using relevant case studies to highlight how ABM-specific strengths have yielded success in the area of preclinical mechanistic modeling. PMID:26783498

  12. Multiscale agent-based consumer market modeling.

    SciTech Connect

    North, M. J.; Macal, C. M.; St. Aubin, J.; Thimmapuram, P.; Bragen, M.; Hahn, J.; Karr, J.; Brigham, N.; Lacy, M. E.; Hampton, D.; Decision and Information Sciences; Procter & Gamble Co.

    2010-05-01

    Consumer markets have been studied in great depth, and many techniques have been used to represent them. These have included regression-based models, logit models, and theoretical market-level models, such as the NBD-Dirichlet approach. Although many important contributions and insights have resulted from studies that relied on these models, there is still a need for a model that could more holistically represent the interdependencies of the decisions made by consumers, retailers, and manufacturers. When the need is for a model that could be used repeatedly over time to support decisions in an industrial setting, it is particularly critical. Although some existing methods can, in principle, represent such complex interdependencies, their capabilities might be outstripped if they had to be used for industrial applications, because of the details this type of modeling requires. However, a complementary method - agent-based modeling - shows promise for addressing these issues. Agent-based models use business-driven rules for individuals (e.g., individual consumer rules for buying items, individual retailer rules for stocking items, or individual firm rules for advertizing items) to determine holistic, system-level outcomes (e.g., to determine if brand X's market share is increasing). We applied agent-based modeling to develop a multi-scale consumer market model. We then conducted calibration, verification, and validation tests of this model. The model was successfully applied by Procter & Gamble to several challenging business problems. In these situations, it directly influenced managerial decision making and produced substantial cost savings.

  13. Assurance in Agent-Based Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Gilliom, Laura R.; Goldsmith, Steven Y.

    1999-05-10

    Our vision of the future of information systems is one that includes engineered collectives of software agents which are situated in an environment over years and which increasingly improve the performance of the overall system of which they are a part. At a minimum, the movement of agent and multi-agent technology into National Security applications, including their use in information assurance, is apparent today. The use of deliberative, autonomous agents in high-consequence/high-security applications will require a commensurate level of protection and confidence in the predictability of system-level behavior. At Sandia National Laboratories, we have defined and are addressing a research agenda that integrates the surety (safety, security, and reliability) into agent-based systems at a deep level. Surety is addressed at multiple levels: The integrity of individual agents must be protected by addressing potential failure modes and vulnerabilities to malevolent threats. Providing for the surety of the collective requires attention to communications surety issues and mechanisms for identifying and working with trusted collaborators. At the highest level, using agent-based collectives within a large-scale distributed system requires the development of principled design methods to deliver the desired emergent performance or surety characteristics. This position paper will outline the research directions underway at Sandia, will discuss relevant work being performed elsewhere, and will report progress to date toward assurance in agent-based systems.

  14. Using Agent Base Models to Optimize Large Scale Network for Large System Inventories

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shameldin, Ramez Ahmed; Bowling, Shannon R.

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to use Agent Base Models (ABM) to optimize large scale network handling capabilities for large system inventories and to implement strategies for the purpose of reducing capital expenses. The models used in this paper either use computational algorithms or procedure implementations developed by Matlab to simulate agent based models in a principal programming language and mathematical theory using clusters, these clusters work as a high performance computational performance to run the program in parallel computational. In both cases, a model is defined as compilation of a set of structures and processes assumed to underlie the behavior of a network system.

  15. Agent Based Modeling as an Educational Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuller, J. H.; Johnson, R.; Castillo, V.

    2012-12-01

    Motivation is a key element in high school education. One way to improve motivation and provide content, while helping address critical thinking and problem solving skills, is to have students build and study agent based models in the classroom. This activity visually connects concepts with their applied mathematical representation. "Engaging students in constructing models may provide a bridge between frequently disconnected conceptual and mathematical forms of knowledge." (Levy and Wilensky, 2011) We wanted to discover the feasibility of implementing a model based curriculum in the classroom given current and anticipated core and content standards.; Simulation using California GIS data ; Simulation of high school student lunch popularity using aerial photograph on top of terrain value map.

  16. SPARK: A Framework for Multi-Scale Agent-Based Biomedical Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Solovyev, Alexey; Mikheev, Maxim; Zhou, Leming; Dutta-Moscato, Joyeeta; Ziraldo, Cordelia; An, Gary; Vodovotz, Yoram; Mi, Qi

    2013-01-01

    Multi-scale modeling of complex biological systems remains a central challenge in the systems biology community. A method of dynamic knowledge representation known as agent-based modeling enables the study of higher level behavior emerging from discrete events performed by individual components. With the advancement of computer technology, agent-based modeling has emerged as an innovative technique to model the complexities of systems biology. In this work, the authors describe SPARK (Simple Platform for Agent-based Representation of Knowledge), a framework for agent-based modeling specifically designed for systems-level biomedical model development. SPARK is a stand-alone application written in Java. It provides a user-friendly interface, and a simple programming language for developing Agent-Based Models (ABMs). SPARK has the following features specialized for modeling biomedical systems: 1) continuous space that can simulate real physical space; 2) flexible agent size and shape that can represent the relative proportions of various cell types; 3) multiple spaces that can concurrently simulate and visualize multiple scales in biomedical models; 4) a convenient graphical user interface. Existing ABMs of diabetic foot ulcers and acute inflammation were implemented in SPARK. Models of identical complexity were run in both NetLogo and SPARK; the SPARK-based models ran two to three times faster. PMID:24163721

  17. Agent-Based Mapping of Credit Risk for Sustainable Microfinance

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Joung-Hun; Jusup, Marko; Podobnik, Boris; Iwasa, Yoh

    2015-01-01

    By drawing analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox framework for mapping microfinance credit risk---a major obstacle to the sustainability of lenders outreaching to the poor. Specifically, using the elements of network theory, we constructed an agent-based model that obeys the stylized rules of microfinance industry. We found that in a deteriorating economic environment confounded with adverse selection, a form of latent moral hazard may cause a regime shift from a high to a low loan payment probability. An after-the-fact recovery, when possible, required the economic environment to improve beyond that which led to the shift in the first place. These findings suggest a small set of measurable quantities for mapping microfinance credit risk and, consequently, for balancing the requirements to reasonably price loans and to operate on a fully self-financed basis. We illustrate how the proposed mapping works using a 10-year monthly data set from one of the best-known microfinance representatives, Grameen Bank in Bangladesh. Finally, we discuss an entirely new perspective for managing microfinance credit risk based on enticing spontaneous cooperation by building social capital. PMID:25945790

  18. Agent-based mapping of credit risk for sustainable microfinance.

    PubMed

    Lee, Joung-Hun; Jusup, Marko; Podobnik, Boris; Iwasa, Yoh

    2015-01-01

    By drawing analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox framework for mapping microfinance credit risk--a major obstacle to the sustainability of lenders outreaching to the poor. Specifically, using the elements of network theory, we constructed an agent-based model that obeys the stylized rules of microfinance industry. We found that in a deteriorating economic environment confounded with adverse selection, a form of latent moral hazard may cause a regime shift from a high to a low loan payment probability. An after-the-fact recovery, when possible, required the economic environment to improve beyond that which led to the shift in the first place. These findings suggest a small set of measurable quantities for mapping microfinance credit risk and, consequently, for balancing the requirements to reasonably price loans and to operate on a fully self-financed basis. We illustrate how the proposed mapping works using a 10-year monthly data set from one of the best-known microfinance representatives, Grameen Bank in Bangladesh. Finally, we discuss an entirely new perspective for managing microfinance credit risk based on enticing spontaneous cooperation by building social capital. PMID:25945790

  19. Validating agent based models through virtual worlds.

    SciTech Connect

    Lakkaraju, Kiran; Whetzel, Jonathan H.; Lee, Jina; Bier, Asmeret Brooke; Cardona-Rivera, Rogelio E.; Bernstein, Jeremy Ray Rhythm

    2014-01-01

    As the US continues its vigilance against distributed, embedded threats, understanding the political and social structure of these groups becomes paramount for predicting and dis- rupting their attacks. Agent-based models (ABMs) serve as a powerful tool to study these groups. While the popularity of social network tools (e.g., Facebook, Twitter) has provided extensive communication data, there is a lack of ne-grained behavioral data with which to inform and validate existing ABMs. Virtual worlds, in particular massively multiplayer online games (MMOG), where large numbers of people interact within a complex environ- ment for long periods of time provide an alternative source of data. These environments provide a rich social environment where players engage in a variety of activities observed between real-world groups: collaborating and/or competing with other groups, conducting battles for scarce resources, and trading in a market economy. Strategies employed by player groups surprisingly re ect those seen in present-day con icts, where players use diplomacy or espionage as their means for accomplishing their goals. In this project, we propose to address the need for ne-grained behavioral data by acquiring and analyzing game data a commercial MMOG, referred to within this report as Game X. The goals of this research were: (1) devising toolsets for analyzing virtual world data to better inform the rules that govern a social ABM and (2) exploring how virtual worlds could serve as a source of data to validate ABMs established for analogous real-world phenomena. During this research, we studied certain patterns of group behavior to compliment social modeling e orts where a signi cant lack of detailed examples of observed phenomena exists. This report outlines our work examining group behaviors that underly what we have termed the Expression-To-Action (E2A) problem: determining the changes in social contact that lead individuals/groups to engage in a particular behavior

  20. Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

    PubMed

    Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems. PMID:20146761

  1. Agent Based Model of Livestock Movements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miron, D. J.; Emelyanova, I. V.; Donald, G. E.; Garner, G. M.

    The modelling of livestock movements within Australia is of national importance for the purposes of the management and control of exotic disease spread, infrastructure development and the economic forecasting of livestock markets. In this paper an agent based model for the forecasting of livestock movements is presented. This models livestock movements from farm to farm through a saleyard. The decision of farmers to sell or buy cattle is often complex and involves many factors such as climate forecast, commodity prices, the type of farm enterprise, the number of animals available and associated off-shore effects. In this model the farm agent's intelligence is implemented using a fuzzy decision tree that utilises two of these factors. These two factors are the livestock price fetched at the last sale and the number of stock on the farm. On each iteration of the model farms choose either to buy, sell or abstain from the market thus creating an artificial supply and demand. The buyers and sellers then congregate at the saleyard where livestock are auctioned using a second price sealed bid. The price time series output by the model exhibits properties similar to those found in real livestock markets.

  2. Running Away

    MedlinePlus

    ... Got Homework? Here's Help White House Lunch Recipes Running Away KidsHealth > For Kids > Running Away Print A ... life on the streets. continue The Reality of Running Away When you think about running away, you ...

  3. Endogenizing geopolitical boundaries with agent-based modeling.

    PubMed

    Cederman, Lars-Erik

    2002-05-14

    Agent-based modeling promises to overcome the reification of actors. Whereas this common, but limiting, assumption makes a lot of sense during periods characterized by stable actor boundaries, other historical junctures, such as the end of the Cold War, exhibit far-reaching and swift transformations of actors' spatial and organizational existence. Moreover, because actors cannot be assumed to remain constant in the long run, analysis of macrohistorical processes virtually always requires "sociational" endogenization. This paper presents a series of computational models, implemented with the software package REPAST, which trace complex macrohistorical transformations of actors be they hierarchically organized as relational networks or as collections of symbolic categories. With respect to the former, dynamic networks featuring emergent compound actors with agent compartments represented in a spatial grid capture organizational domination of the territorial state. In addition, models of "tagged" social processes allows the analyst to show how democratic states predicate their behavior on categorical traits. Finally, categorical schemata that select out politically relevant cultural traits in ethnic landscapes formalize a constructivist notion of national identity in conformance with the qualitative literature on nationalism. This "finite-agent method", representing both states and nations as higher-level structures superimposed on a lower-level grid of primitive agents or cultural traits, avoids reification of agency. Furthermore, it opens the door to explicit analysis of entity processes, such as the integration and disintegration of actors as well as boundary transformations. PMID:12011409

  4. Endogenizing geopolitical boundaries with agent-based modeling

    PubMed Central

    Cederman, Lars-Erik

    2002-01-01

    Agent-based modeling promises to overcome the reification of actors. Whereas this common, but limiting, assumption makes a lot of sense during periods characterized by stable actor boundaries, other historical junctures, such as the end of the Cold War, exhibit far-reaching and swift transformations of actors' spatial and organizational existence. Moreover, because actors cannot be assumed to remain constant in the long run, analysis of macrohistorical processes virtually always requires “sociational” endogenization. This paper presents a series of computational models, implemented with the software package REPAST, which trace complex macrohistorical transformations of actors be they hierarchically organized as relational networks or as collections of symbolic categories. With respect to the former, dynamic networks featuring emergent compound actors with agent compartments represented in a spatial grid capture organizational domination of the territorial state. In addition, models of “tagged” social processes allows the analyst to show how democratic states predicate their behavior on categorical traits. Finally, categorical schemata that select out politically relevant cultural traits in ethnic landscapes formalize a constructivist notion of national identity in conformance with the qualitative literature on nationalism. This “finite-agent method”, representing both states and nations as higher-level structures superimposed on a lower-level grid of primitive agents or cultural traits, avoids reification of agency. Furthermore, it opens the door to explicit analysis of entity processes, such as the integration and disintegration of actors as well as boundary transformations. PMID:12011409

  5. NISAC Agent Based Laboratory for Economics

    SciTech Connect

    Downes, Paula; Davis, Chris; Eidson, Eric; Ehlen, Mark; Gieseler, Charles; Harris, Richard

    2006-10-11

    The software provides large-scale microeconomic simulation of complex economic and social systems (such as supply chain and market dynamics of businesses in the US economy) and their dependence on physical infrastructure systems. The system is based on Agent simulation, where each entity of inteest in the system to be modeled (for example, a Bank, individual firms, Consumer households, etc.) is specified in a data-driven sense to be individually repreented by an Agent. The Agents interact using rules of interaction appropriate to their roles, and through those interactions complex economic and social dynamics emerge. The software is implemented in three tiers, a Java-based visualization client, a C++ control mid-tier, and a C++ computational tier.

  6. NISAC Agent Based Laboratory for Economics

    2006-10-11

    The software provides large-scale microeconomic simulation of complex economic and social systems (such as supply chain and market dynamics of businesses in the US economy) and their dependence on physical infrastructure systems. The system is based on Agent simulation, where each entity of inteest in the system to be modeled (for example, a Bank, individual firms, Consumer households, etc.) is specified in a data-driven sense to be individually repreented by an Agent. The Agents interactmore » using rules of interaction appropriate to their roles, and through those interactions complex economic and social dynamics emerge. The software is implemented in three tiers, a Java-based visualization client, a C++ control mid-tier, and a C++ computational tier.« less

  7. Agent-based models of financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samanidou, E.; Zschischang, E.; Stauffer, D.; Lux, T.

    2007-03-01

    This review deals with several microscopic ('agent-based') models of financial markets which have been studied by economists and physicists over the last decade: Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon, Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Weisbuch, Lux-Marchesi, Donangelo-Sneppen and Solomon-Levy-Huang. After an overview of simulation approaches in financial economics, we first give a summary of the Donangelo-Sneppen model of monetary exchange and compare it with related models in economics literature. Our selective review then outlines the main ingredients of some influential early models of multi-agent dynamics in financial markets (Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon). As will be seen, these contributions draw their inspiration from the complex appearance of investors' interactions in real-life markets. Their main aim is to reproduce (and, thereby, provide possible explanations) for the spectacular bubbles and crashes seen in certain historical episodes, but they lack (like almost all the work before 1998 or so) a perspective in terms of the universal statistical features of financial time series. In fact, awareness of a set of such regularities (power-law tails of the distribution of returns, temporal scaling of volatility) only gradually appeared over the nineties. With the more precise description of the formerly relatively vague characteristics (e.g. moving from the notion of fat tails to the more concrete one of a power law with index around three), it became clear that financial market dynamics give rise to some kind of universal scaling law. Showing similarities with scaling laws for other systems with many interacting sub-units, an exploration of financial markets as multi-agent systems appeared to be a natural consequence. This topic has been pursued by quite a number of contributions appearing in both the physics and economics literature since the late nineties. From the wealth of different flavours of multi-agent models that have appeared up to now, we discuss the Cont

  8. An Agent-Based Cockpit Task Management System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Funk, Ken

    1997-01-01

    An agent-based program to facilitate Cockpit Task Management (CTM) in commercial transport aircraft is developed and evaluated. The agent-based program called the AgendaManager (AMgr) is described and evaluated in a part-task simulator study using airline pilots.

  9. An Active Learning Exercise for Introducing Agent-Based Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pinder, Jonathan P.

    2013-01-01

    Recent developments in agent-based modeling as a method of systems analysis and optimization indicate that students in business analytics need an introduction to the terminology, concepts, and framework of agent-based modeling. This article presents an active learning exercise for MBA students in business analytics that demonstrates agent-based…

  10. Exploring cooperation and competition using agent-based modeling

    PubMed Central

    Elliott, Euel; Kiel, L. Douglas

    2002-01-01

    Agent-based modeling enhances our capacity to model competitive and cooperative behaviors at both the individual and group levels of analysis. Models presented in these proceedings produce consistent results regarding the relative fragility of cooperative regimes among agents operating under diverse rules. These studies also show how competition and cooperation may generate change at both the group and societal level. Agent-based simulation of competitive and cooperative behaviors may reveal the greatest payoff to social science research of all agent-based modeling efforts because of the need to better understand the dynamics of these behaviors in an increasingly interconnected world. PMID:12011396

  11. Agent-Based Model Approach to Complex Phenomena in Real Economy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iyetomi, H.; Aoyama, H.; Fujiwara, Y.; Ikeda, Y.; Souma, W.

    An agent-based model for firms' dynamics is developed. The model consists of firm agents with identical characteristic parameters and a bank agent. Dynamics of those agents are described by their balance sheets. Each firm tries to maximize its expected profit with possible risks in market. Infinite growth of a firm directed by the ``profit maximization" principle is suppressed by a concept of ``going concern". Possibility of bankruptcy of firms is also introduced by incorporating a retardation effect of information on firms' decision. The firms, mutually interacting through the monopolistic bank, become heterogeneous in the course of temporal evolution. Statistical properties of firms' dynamics obtained by simulations based on the model are discussed in light of observations in the real economy.

  12. AGENT-BASED MODELS IN EMPIRICAL SOCIAL RESEARCH*

    PubMed Central

    Bruch, Elizabeth; Atwell, Jon

    2014-01-01

    Agent-based modeling has become increasingly popular in recent years, but there is still no codified set of recommendations or practices for how to use these models within a program of empirical research. This article provides ideas and practical guidelines drawn from sociology, biology, computer science, epidemiology, and statistics. We first discuss the motivations for using agent-based models in both basic science and policy-oriented social research. Next, we provide an overview of methods and strategies for incorporating data on behavior and populations into agent-based models, and review techniques for validating and testing the sensitivity of agent-based models. We close with suggested directions for future research. PMID:25983351

  13. Agent-Based Modeling of Growth Processes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abraham, Ralph

    2014-01-01

    Growth processes abound in nature, and are frequently the target of modeling exercises in the sciences. In this article we illustrate an agent-based approach to modeling, in the case of a single example from the social sciences: bullying.

  14. Results and Lessons Learned from a Coupled Social and Physical Hydrology Model: Testing Alternative Water Management Policies and Institutional Structures Using Agent-Based Modeling and Regional Hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, J.; Lammers, R. B.; Prousevitch, A.; Ozik, J.; Altaweel, M.; Collier, N. T.; Kliskey, A. D.; Alessa, L.

    2015-12-01

    Water Management in the U.S. Southwest is under increasing scrutiny as many areas endure persistent drought. The impact of these prolonged dry conditions is a product of regional climate and hydrological conditions, but also of a highly engineered water management infrastructure and a complex web of social arrangements whereby water is allocated, shared, exchanged, used, re-used, and finally consumed. We coupled an agent-based model with a regional hydrological model to understand the dynamics in one richly studied and highly populous area: southern Arizona, U.S.A., including metropolitan Phoenix and Tucson. There, multiple management entities representing an array of municipalities and other water providers and customers, including private companies and Native American tribes are enmeshed in a complex legal and economic context in which water is bought, leased, banked, and exchanged in a variety of ways and on multiple temporal and physical scales. A recurrent question in the literature of adaptive management is the impact of management structure on overall system performance. To explore this, we constructed an agent-based model to capture this social complexity, and coupled this with a physical hydrological model that we used to drive the system under a variety of water stress scenarios and to assess the regional impact of the social system's performance. We report the outcomes of ensembles of runs in which varieties of alternative policy constraints and management strategies are considered. We hope to contribute to policy discussions in this area and connected and legislatively similar areas (such as California) as current conditions change and existing legal and policy structures are revised. Additionally, we comment on the challenges of integrating models that ostensibly are in different domains (physical and social) but that independently represent a system in which physical processes and human actions are closely intertwined and difficult to disentangle.

  15. An Agent-based Framework for Web Query Answering.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Huaiqing; Liao, Stephen; Liao, Lejian

    2000-01-01

    Discusses discrepancies between user queries on the Web and the answers provided by information sources; proposes an agent-based framework for Web mining tasks; introduces an object-oriented deductive data model and a flexible query language; and presents a cooperative mechanism for query answering. (Author/LRW)

  16. Adding ecosystem function to agent-based land use models

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The objective of this paper is to examine issues in the inclusion of simulations of ecosystem functions in agent-based models of land use decision-making. The reasons for incorporating these simulations include local interests in land fertility and global interests in carbon sequestration. Biogeoche...

  17. Agent-based services for B2B electronic commerce

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fong, Elizabeth; Ivezic, Nenad; Rhodes, Tom; Peng, Yun

    2000-12-01

    The potential of agent-based systems has not been realized yet, in part, because of the lack of understanding of how the agent technology supports industrial needs and emerging standards. The area of business-to-business electronic commerce (b2b e-commerce) is one of the most rapidly developing sectors of industry with huge impact on manufacturing practices. In this paper, we investigate the current state of agent technology and the feasibility of applying agent-based computing to b2b e-commerce in the circuit board manufacturing sector. We identify critical tasks and opportunities in the b2b e-commerce area where agent-based services can best be deployed. We describe an implemented agent-based prototype system to facilitate the bidding process for printed circuit board manufacturing and assembly. These activities are taking place within the Internet Commerce for Manufacturing (ICM) project, the NIST- sponsored project working with industry to create an environment where small manufacturers of mechanical and electronic components may participate competitively in virtual enterprises that manufacture printed circuit assemblies.

  18. Agent-based scheduling system to achieve agility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akbulut, Muhtar B.; Kamarthi, Sagar V.

    2000-12-01

    Today's competitive enterprises need to design, develop, and manufacture their products rapidly and inexpensively. Agile manufacturing has emerged as a new paradigm to meet these challenges. Agility requires, among many other things, scheduling and control software systems that are flexible, robust, and adaptive. In this paper a new agent-based scheduling system (ABBS) is developed to meet the challenges of an agile manufacturing system. In ABSS, unlike in the traditional approaches, information and decision making capabilities are distributed among the system entities called agents. In contrast with the most agent-based scheduling systems which commonly use a bidding approach, the ABBS employs a global performance monitoring strategy. A production-rate-based global performance metric which effectively assesses the system performance is developed to assist the agents' decision making process. To test the architecture, an agent-based discrete event simulation software is developed. The experiments performed using the simulation software yielded encouraging results in supporting the applicability of agent-based systems to address the scheduling and control needs of an agile manufacturing system.

  19. Modeling civil violence: An agent-based computational approach

    PubMed Central

    Epstein, Joshua M.

    2002-01-01

    This article presents an agent-based computational model of civil violence. Two variants of the civil violence model are presented. In the first a central authority seeks to suppress decentralized rebellion. In the second a central authority seeks to suppress communal violence between two warring ethnic groups. PMID:11997450

  20. An Agent-Based Interface to Terrestrial Ecological Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Golden, Keith; Nemani, Ramakrishna; Pang, Wan-Lin; Votava, Petr; Etzioni, Oren

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes a flexible agent-based ecological forecasting system that combines multiple distributed data sources and models to provide near-real-time answers to questions about the state of the Earth system We build on novel techniques in automated constraint-based planning and natural language interfaces to automatically generate data products based on descriptions of the desired data products.

  1. Agent-based models in translational systems biology

    PubMed Central

    An, Gary; Mi, Qi; Dutta-Moscato, Joyeeta; Vodovotz, Yoram

    2013-01-01

    Effective translational methodologies for knowledge representation are needed in order to make strides against the constellation of diseases that affect the world today. These diseases are defined by their mechanistic complexity, redundancy, and nonlinearity. Translational systems biology aims to harness the power of computational simulation to streamline drug/device design, simulate clinical trials, and eventually to predict the effects of drugs on individuals. The ability of agent-based modeling to encompass multiple scales of biological process as well as spatial considerations, coupled with an intuitive modeling paradigm, suggests that this modeling framework is well suited for translational systems biology. This review describes agent-based modeling and gives examples of its translational applications in the context of acute inflammation and wound healing. PMID:20835989

  2. Tutorial on agent-based modeling and simulation.

    SciTech Connect

    Macal, C. M.; North, M. J.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2005-01-01

    Agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) is a new approach to modeling systems comprised of autonomous, interacting agents. ABMS promises to have far-reaching effects on the way that businesses use computers to support decision-making and researchers use electronic laboratories to support their research. Some have gone so far as to contend that ABMS is a third way of doing science besides deductive and inductive reasoning. Computational advances have made possible a growing number of agent-based applications in a variety of fields. Applications range from modeling agent behavior in the stock market and supply chains, to predicting the spread of epidemics and the threat of bio-warfare, from modeling consumer behavior to understanding the fall of ancient civilizations, to name a few. This tutorial describes the theoretical and practical foundations of ABMS, identifies toolkits and methods for developing ABMS models, and provides some thoughts on the relationship between ABMS and traditional modeling techniques.

  3. Investigating biocomplexity through the agent-based paradigm

    PubMed Central

    Kaul, Himanshu

    2015-01-01

    Capturing the dynamism that pervades biological systems requires a computational approach that can accommodate both the continuous features of the system environment as well as the flexible and heterogeneous nature of component interactions. This presents a serious challenge for the more traditional mathematical approaches that assume component homogeneity to relate system observables using mathematical equations. While the homogeneity condition does not lead to loss of accuracy while simulating various continua, it fails to offer detailed solutions when applied to systems with dynamically interacting heterogeneous components. As the functionality and architecture of most biological systems is a product of multi-faceted individual interactions at the sub-system level, continuum models rarely offer much beyond qualitative similarity. Agent-based modelling is a class of algorithmic computational approaches that rely on interactions between Turing-complete finite-state machines—or agents—to simulate, from the bottom-up, macroscopic properties of a system. In recognizing the heterogeneity condition, they offer suitable ontologies to the system components being modelled, thereby succeeding where their continuum counterparts tend to struggle. Furthermore, being inherently hierarchical, they are quite amenable to coupling with other computational paradigms. The integration of any agent-based framework with continuum models is arguably the most elegant and precise way of representing biological systems. Although in its nascence, agent-based modelling has been utilized to model biological complexity across a broad range of biological scales (from cells to societies). In this article, we explore the reasons that make agent-based modelling the most precise approach to model biological systems that tend to be non-linear and complex. PMID:24227161

  4. The fractional volatility model: An agent-based interpretation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vilela Mendes, R.

    2008-06-01

    Based on the criteria of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a model with volatility driven by fractional noise has been constructed which provides a fairly accurate mathematical parametrization of the data. Here, some features of the model are reviewed and extended to account for leverage effects. Using agent-based models, one tries to find which agent strategies and (or) properties of the financial institutions might be responsible for the features of the fractional volatility model.

  5. Cognitive Modeling for Agent-Based Simulation of Child Maltreatment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Xiaolin; Puddy, Richard

    This paper extends previous work to develop cognitive modeling for agent-based simulation of child maltreatment (CM). The developed model is inspired from parental efficacy, parenting stress, and the theory of planned behavior. It provides an explanatory, process-oriented model of CM and incorporates causality relationship and feedback loops from different factors in the social ecology in order for simulating the dynamics of CM. We describe the model and present simulation results to demonstrate the features of this model.

  6. Agent-based modeling and simulation Part 3 : desktop ABMS.

    SciTech Connect

    Macal, C. M.; North, M. J.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2007-01-01

    Agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) is a new approach to modeling systems comprised of autonomous, interacting agents. ABMS promises to have far-reaching effects on the way that businesses use computers to support decision-making and researchers use electronic laboratories to support their research. Some have gone so far as to contend that ABMS 'is a third way of doing science,' in addition to traditional deductive and inductive reasoning (Axelrod 1997b). Computational advances have made possible a growing number of agent-based models across a variety of application domains. Applications range from modeling agent behavior in the stock market, supply chains, and consumer markets, to predicting the spread of epidemics, the threat of bio-warfare, and the factors responsible for the fall of ancient civilizations. This tutorial describes the theoretical and practical foundations of ABMS, identifies toolkits and methods for developing agent models, and illustrates the development of a simple agent-based model of shopper behavior using spreadsheets.

  7. Interactive agent based modeling of public health decision-making.

    PubMed

    Parks, Amanda L; Walker, Brett; Pettey, Warren; Benuzillo, Jose; Gesteland, Per; Grant, Juliana; Koopman, James; Drews, Frank; Samore, Matthew

    2009-01-01

    Agent-based models have yielded important insights regarding the transmission dynamics of communicable diseases. To better understand how these models can be used to study decision making of public health officials, we developed a computer program that linked an agent-based model of pertussis with an agent-based model of public health management. The program, which we call the Public Health Interactive Model & simulation (PHIMs) encompassed the reporting of cases to public health, case investigation, and public health response. The user directly interacted with the model in the role of the public health decision-maker. In this paper we describe the design of our model, and present the results of a pilot study to assess its usability and potential for future development. Affinity for specific tools was demonstrated. Participants ranked the program high in usability and considered it useful for training. Our ultimate goal is to achieve better public health decisions and outcomes through use of public health decision support tools. PMID:20351907

  8. Who's your neighbor? neighbor identification for agent-based modeling.

    SciTech Connect

    Macal, C. M.; Howe, T. R.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Chicago

    2006-01-01

    Agent-based modeling and simulation, based on the cellular automata paradigm, is an approach to modeling complex systems comprised of interacting autonomous agents. Open questions in agent-based simulation focus on scale-up issues encountered in simulating large numbers of agents. Specifically, how many agents can be included in a workable agent-based simulation? One of the basic tenets of agent-based modeling and simulation is that agents only interact and exchange locally available information with other agents located in their immediate proximity or neighborhood of the space in which the agents are situated. Generally, an agent's set of neighbors changes rapidly as a simulation proceeds through time and as the agents move through space. Depending on the topology defined for agent interactions, proximity may be defined by spatial distance for continuous space, adjacency for grid cells (as in cellular automata), or by connectivity in social networks. Identifying an agent's neighbors is a particularly time-consuming computational task and can dominate the computational effort in a simulation. Two challenges in agent simulation are (1) efficiently representing an agent's neighborhood and the neighbors in it and (2) efficiently identifying an agent's neighbors at any time in the simulation. These problems are addressed differently for different agent interaction topologies. While efficient approaches have been identified for agent neighborhood representation and neighbor identification for agents on a lattice with general neighborhood configurations, other techniques must be used when agents are able to move freely in space. Techniques for the analysis and representation of spatial data are applicable to the agent neighbor identification problem. This paper extends agent neighborhood simulation techniques from the lattice topology to continuous space, specifically R2. Algorithms based on hierarchical (quad trees) or non-hierarchical data structures (grid cells) are

  9. Agent-based model of macrophage action on endocrine pancreas.

    PubMed

    Martínez, Ignacio V; Gómez, Enrique J; Hernando, M Elena; Villares, Ricardo; Mellado, Mario

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes an agent-based model of the action of macrophages on the beta cells of the endocrine pancreas. The aim of this model is to simulate the processes of beta cell proliferation and apoptosis and also the process of phagocytosis of cell debris by macrophages, all of which are related to the onset of the autoimmune response in type 1 diabetes. We have used data from the scientific literature to design the model. The results show that the model obtains good approximations to real processes and could be used to shed light on some open questions concerning such processes. PMID:23155767

  10. Agent-based modeling of urban land-use change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xinyan; Li, Deren

    2005-10-01

    ABM (Agent-Based Modeling) is a newly developed method of computer simulation. It has characteristics such as active, dynamic, and operational. Urban land-use change has been a focus problem all over the world, especially for the developing countries. We try to use ABM to model the urban land-use changes. By studying the mechanism of urban land use evolvement, we put forwards the thinking of modeling. And an urban land-use change model is built primarily based on the RePast software and GIS spatial database.

  11. Barefoot Running

    PubMed Central

    Mullen, Scott; Cotton, Jon; Bechtold, Megan; Toby, E. Bruce

    2014-01-01

    Background: It has been proposed that running barefoot can lead to improved strength and proprioception. However, the duration that a runner must train barefoot to observe these changes is unknown. Hypothesis: Runners participating in a barefoot running program will have improved proprioception, increased lower extremity strength, and an increase in the volume or size of the intrinsic musculature of the feet. Study Design: Randomized controlled trial; Level of evidence, 2. Methods: In this 8-week study, 29 runners with a mean age of 36.34 years were randomized into either a control group (n = 10) who completed training in their regular running shoes or to an experimental barefoot group (n = 14). Pretraining tests consisted of a volumetric measurement of the foot followed by a strength and dynamic balance assessment. Five subjects completed the pretests but did not complete the study for reasons not related to study outcomes. Participants then completed 8 weeks of training runs. They repeated the strength and dynamic balance assessment after 8 weeks. Results: Significant changes from baseline to 8 weeks were observed within the barefoot group for single-leg hop (right, P = .0121; left, P = .0430) and reach and balance (right, P = .0029) and within the control group for single–left leg hop (P = .0286) and reach and balance (right, P = .0096; left, P = .0014). However, when comparing the differences in changes from baseline to 8 weeks between the barefoot and control groups, the improvements were not significant at the .05 level for all measures. Conclusion: Although statistically significant changes were not observed between the pre- and posttest evaluations in strength and proprioception with the 8-week low-intensity barefoot running regimen, this does not necessarily mean that these changes do not occur. It is possible that it may take months or years to observe these changes, and a short course such as this trial is insufficient. PMID:26535308

  12. An agent-based approach to financial stylized facts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shimokawa, Tetsuya; Suzuki, Kyoko; Misawa, Tadanobu

    2007-06-01

    An important challenge of the financial theory in recent years is to construct more sophisticated models which have consistencies with as many financial stylized facts that cannot be explained by traditional models. Recently, psychological studies on decision making under uncertainty which originate in Kahneman and Tversky's research attract a lot of interest as key factors which figure out the financial stylized facts. These psychological results have been applied to the theory of investor's decision making and financial equilibrium modeling. This paper, following these behavioral financial studies, would like to propose an agent-based equilibrium model with prospect theoretical features of investors. Our goal is to point out a possibility that loss-averse feature of investors explains vast number of financial stylized facts and plays a crucial role in price formations of financial markets. Price process which is endogenously generated through our model has consistencies with, not only the equity premium puzzle and the volatility puzzle, but great kurtosis, asymmetry of return distribution, auto-correlation of return volatility, cross-correlation between return volatility and trading volume. Moreover, by using agent-based simulations, the paper also provides a rigorous explanation from the viewpoint of a lack of market liquidity to the size effect, which means that small-sized stocks enjoy excess returns compared to large-sized stocks.

  13. An agent-based multilayer architecture for bioinformatics grids.

    PubMed

    Bartocci, Ezio; Cacciagrano, Diletta; Cannata, Nicola; Corradini, Flavio; Merelli, Emanuela; Milanesi, Luciano; Romano, Paolo

    2007-06-01

    Due to the huge volume and complexity of biological data available today, a fundamental component of biomedical research is now in silico analysis. This includes modelling and simulation of biological systems and processes, as well as automated bioinformatics analysis of high-throughput data. The quest for bioinformatics resources (including databases, tools, and knowledge) becomes therefore of extreme importance. Bioinformatics itself is in rapid evolution and dedicated Grid cyberinfrastructures already offer easier access and sharing of resources. Furthermore, the concept of the Grid is progressively interleaving with those of Web Services, semantics, and software agents. Agent-based systems can play a key role in learning, planning, interaction, and coordination. Agents constitute also a natural paradigm to engineer simulations of complex systems like the molecular ones. We present here an agent-based, multilayer architecture for bioinformatics Grids. It is intended to support both the execution of complex in silico experiments and the simulation of biological systems. In the architecture a pivotal role is assigned to an "alive" semantic index of resources, which is also expected to facilitate users' awareness of the bioinformatics domain. PMID:17695749

  14. Agent-Based Deterministic Modeling of the Bone Marrow Homeostasis

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Modeling of stem cells not only describes but also predicts how a stem cell's environment can control its fate. The first stem cell populations discovered were hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs). In this paper, we present a deterministic model of bone marrow (that hosts HSCs) that is consistent with several of the qualitative biological observations. This model incorporates stem cell death (apoptosis) after a certain number of cell divisions and also demonstrates that a single HSC can potentially populate the entire bone marrow. It also demonstrates that there is a production of sufficient number of differentiated cells (RBCs, WBCs, etc.). We prove that our model of bone marrow is biologically consistent and it overcomes the biological feasibility limitations of previously reported models. The major contribution of our model is the flexibility it allows in choosing model parameters which permits several different simulations to be carried out in silico without affecting the homeostatic properties of the model. We have also performed agent-based simulation of the model of bone marrow system proposed in this paper. We have also included parameter details and the results obtained from the simulation. The program of the agent-based simulation of the proposed model is made available on a publicly accessible website. PMID:27340402

  15. An agent-based microsimulation of critical infrastructure systems

    SciTech Connect

    BARTON,DIANNE C.; STAMBER,KEVIN L.

    2000-03-29

    US infrastructures provide essential services that support the economic prosperity and quality of life. Today, the latest threat to these infrastructures is the increasing complexity and interconnectedness of the system. On balance, added connectivity will improve economic efficiency; however, increased coupling could also result in situations where a disturbance in an isolated infrastructure unexpectedly cascades across diverse infrastructures. An understanding of the behavior of complex systems can be critical to understanding and predicting infrastructure responses to unexpected perturbation. Sandia National Laboratories has developed an agent-based model of critical US infrastructures using time-dependent Monte Carlo methods and a genetic algorithm learning classifier system to control decision making. The model is currently under development and contains agents that represent the several areas within the interconnected infrastructures, including electric power and fuel supply. Previous work shows that agent-based simulations models have the potential to improve the accuracy of complex system forecasting and to provide new insights into the factors that are the primary drivers of emergent behaviors in interdependent systems. Simulation results can be examined both computationally and analytically, offering new ways of theorizing about the impact of perturbations to an infrastructure network.

  16. Agent-Based Deterministic Modeling of the Bone Marrow Homeostasis.

    PubMed

    Kurhekar, Manish; Deshpande, Umesh

    2016-01-01

    Modeling of stem cells not only describes but also predicts how a stem cell's environment can control its fate. The first stem cell populations discovered were hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs). In this paper, we present a deterministic model of bone marrow (that hosts HSCs) that is consistent with several of the qualitative biological observations. This model incorporates stem cell death (apoptosis) after a certain number of cell divisions and also demonstrates that a single HSC can potentially populate the entire bone marrow. It also demonstrates that there is a production of sufficient number of differentiated cells (RBCs, WBCs, etc.). We prove that our model of bone marrow is biologically consistent and it overcomes the biological feasibility limitations of previously reported models. The major contribution of our model is the flexibility it allows in choosing model parameters which permits several different simulations to be carried out in silico without affecting the homeostatic properties of the model. We have also performed agent-based simulation of the model of bone marrow system proposed in this paper. We have also included parameter details and the results obtained from the simulation. The program of the agent-based simulation of the proposed model is made available on a publicly accessible website. PMID:27340402

  17. Design of a Mobile Agent-Based Adaptive Communication Middleware for Federations of Critical Infrastructure Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Görbil, Gökçe; Gelenbe, Erol

    The simulation of critical infrastructures (CI) can involve the use of diverse domain specific simulators that run on geographically distant sites. These diverse simulators must then be coordinated to run concurrently in order to evaluate the performance of critical infrastructures which influence each other, especially in emergency or resource-critical situations. We therefore describe the design of an adaptive communication middleware that provides reliable and real-time one-to-one and group communications for federations of CI simulators over a wide-area network (WAN). The proposed middleware is composed of mobile agent-based peer-to-peer (P2P) overlays, called virtual networks (VNets), to enable resilient, adaptive and real-time communications over unreliable and dynamic physical networks (PNets). The autonomous software agents comprising the communication middleware monitor their performance and the underlying PNet, and dynamically adapt the P2P overlay and migrate over the PNet in order to optimize communications according to the requirements of the federation and the current conditions of the PNet. Reliable communications is provided via redundancy within the communication middleware and intelligent migration of agents over the PNet. The proposed middleware integrates security methods in order to protect the communication infrastructure against attacks and provide privacy and anonymity to the participants of the federation. Experiments with an initial version of the communication middleware over a real-life networking testbed show that promising improvements can be obtained for unicast and group communications via the agent migration capability of our middleware.

  18. Engineering large-scale agent-based systems with consensus

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bokma, A.; Slade, A.; Kerridge, S.; Johnson, K.

    1994-01-01

    The paper presents the consensus method for the development of large-scale agent-based systems. Systems can be developed as networks of knowledge based agents (KBA) which engage in a collaborative problem solving effort. The method provides a comprehensive and integrated approach to the development of this type of system. This includes a systematic analysis of user requirements as well as a structured approach to generating a system design which exhibits the desired functionality. There is a direct correspondence between system requirements and design components. The benefits of this approach are that requirements are traceable into design components and code thus facilitating verification. The use of the consensus method with two major test applications showed it to be successful and also provided valuable insight into problems typically associated with the development of large systems.

  19. Economic evaluations with agent-based modelling: an introduction.

    PubMed

    Chhatwal, Jagpreet; He, Tianhua

    2015-05-01

    Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a relatively new technique, which overcomes some of the limitations of other methods commonly used for economic evaluations. These limitations include linearity, homogeneity and stationarity. Agents in ABMs are autonomous entities, who interact with each other and with the environment. ABMs provide an inductive or 'bottom-up' approach, i.e. individual-level behaviours define system-level components. ABMs have a unique property to capture emergence phenomena that otherwise cannot be predicted by the combination of individual-level interactions. In this tutorial, we discuss the basic concepts and important features of ABMs. We present a case study of an application of a simple ABM to evaluate the cost effectiveness of screening of an infectious disease. We also provide our model, which was developed using an open-source software program, NetLogo. We discuss software, resources, challenges and future research opportunities of ABMs for economic evaluations. PMID:25609398

  20. On agent-based modeling and computational social science

    PubMed Central

    Conte, Rosaria; Paolucci, Mario

    2014-01-01

    In the first part of the paper, the field of agent-based modeling (ABM) is discussed focusing on the role of generative theories, aiming at explaining phenomena by growing them. After a brief analysis of the major strengths of the field some crucial weaknesses are analyzed. In particular, the generative power of ABM is found to have been underexploited, as the pressure for simple recipes has prevailed and shadowed the application of rich cognitive models. In the second part of the paper, the renewal of interest for Computational Social Science (CSS) is focused upon, and several of its variants, such as deductive, generative, and complex CSS, are identified and described. In the concluding remarks, an interdisciplinary variant, which takes after ABM, reconciling it with the quantitative one, is proposed as a fundamental requirement for a new program of the CSS. PMID:25071642

  1. Agent-based simulation of a financial market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raberto, Marco; Cincotti, Silvano; Focardi, Sergio M.; Marchesi, Michele

    2001-10-01

    This paper introduces an agent-based artificial financial market in which heterogeneous agents trade one single asset through a realistic trading mechanism for price formation. Agents are initially endowed with a finite amount of cash and a given finite portfolio of assets. There is no money-creation process; the total available cash is conserved in time. In each period, agents make random buy and sell decisions that are constrained by available resources, subject to clustering, and dependent on the volatility of previous periods. The model proposed herein is able to reproduce the leptokurtic shape of the probability density of log price returns and the clustering of volatility. Implemented using extreme programming and object-oriented technology, the simulator is a flexible computational experimental facility that can find applications in both academic and industrial research projects.

  2. Hypercompetitive Environments: An Agent-based model approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dias, Manuel; Araújo, Tanya

    Information technology (IT) environments are characterized by complex changes and rapid evolution. Globalization and the spread of technological innovation have increased the need for new strategic information resources, both from individual firms and management environments. Improvements in multidisciplinary methods and, particularly, the availability of powerful computational tools, are giving researchers an increasing opportunity to investigate management environments in their true complex nature. The adoption of a complex systems approach allows for modeling business strategies from a bottom-up perspective — understood as resulting from repeated and local interaction of economic agents — without disregarding the consequences of the business strategies themselves to individual behavior of enterprises, emergence of interaction patterns between firms and management environments. Agent-based models are at the leading approach of this attempt.

  3. On agent-based modeling and computational social science.

    PubMed

    Conte, Rosaria; Paolucci, Mario

    2014-01-01

    In the first part of the paper, the field of agent-based modeling (ABM) is discussed focusing on the role of generative theories, aiming at explaining phenomena by growing them. After a brief analysis of the major strengths of the field some crucial weaknesses are analyzed. In particular, the generative power of ABM is found to have been underexploited, as the pressure for simple recipes has prevailed and shadowed the application of rich cognitive models. In the second part of the paper, the renewal of interest for Computational Social Science (CSS) is focused upon, and several of its variants, such as deductive, generative, and complex CSS, are identified and described. In the concluding remarks, an interdisciplinary variant, which takes after ABM, reconciling it with the quantitative one, is proposed as a fundamental requirement for a new program of the CSS. PMID:25071642

  4. Statistical Agent Based Modelization of the Phenomenon of Drug Abuse

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    di Clemente, Riccardo; Pietronero, Luciano

    2012-07-01

    We introduce a statistical agent based model to describe the phenomenon of drug abuse and its dynamical evolution at the individual and global level. The agents are heterogeneous with respect to their intrinsic inclination to drugs, to their budget attitude and social environment. The various levels of drug use were inspired by the professional description of the phenomenon and this permits a direct comparison with all available data. We show that certain elements have a great importance to start the use of drugs, for example the rare events in the personal experiences which permit to overcame the barrier of drug use occasionally. The analysis of how the system reacts to perturbations is very important to understand its key elements and it provides strategies for effective policy making. The present model represents the first step of a realistic description of this phenomenon and can be easily generalized in various directions.

  5. Convergence and optimization of agent-based coalition formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yuanshi; Wu, Hong

    2005-03-01

    In this paper, we analyze the model of agent-based coalition formation in markets. Our goal is to study the convergence of the coalition formation and optimize agents’ strategies. We show that the model has a unique steady state (equilibrium) and prove that all solutions converge to it in the case that the maximum size of coalitions is not larger than three. The stability of the steady state in other cases is not studied while numerical simulations are given to show the convergence. The steady state, which determines both the global system gain and the average gain per agent, is expressed by the agents’ strategies in the coalition formation. Through the steady state, we give the relationship between the gains and the agents’ strategies, and present a series of results for the optimization of agents’ strategies.

  6. Reaction to Extreme Events in a Minimal Agent Based Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaccaria, Andrea; Cristelli, Matthieu; Pietronero, Luciano

    We consider the issue of the overreaction of financial markets to a sudden price change. In particular, we focus on the price and the population dynamics which follows a large fluctuation. In order to investigate these aspects from different perspectives we discuss the known results for empirical data, the Lux-Marchesi model and a minimal agent based model which we have recently proposed. We show that, in this framework, the presence of a overreaction is deeply linked to the population dynamics. In particular, the presence of a destabilizing strategy in the market is a necessary condition to have an overshoot with respect to the exogenously induced price fluctuation. Finally, we analyze how the memory of the agents can quantitatively affect this behavior.

  7. Techniques and Issues in Agent-Based Modeling Validation

    SciTech Connect

    Pullum, Laura L; Cui, Xiaohui

    2012-01-01

    Validation of simulation models is extremely important. It ensures that the right model has been built and lends confidence to the use of that model to inform critical decisions. Agent-based models (ABM) have been widely deployed in different fields for studying the collective behavior of large numbers of interacting agents. However, researchers have only recently started to consider the issues of validation. Compared to other simulation models, ABM has many differences in model development, usage and validation. An ABM is inherently easier to build than a classical simulation, but more difficult to describe formally since they are closer to human cognition. Using multi-agent models to study complex systems has attracted criticisms because of the challenges involved in their validation [1]. In this report, we describe the challenge of ABM validation and present a novel approach we recently developed for an ABM system.

  8. Using Agent Based Modeling (ABM) to Develop Cultural Interaction Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Drucker, Nick; Jones, Phillip N.

    2012-01-01

    Today, most cultural training is based on or built around "cultural engagements" or discrete interactions between the individual learner and one or more cultural "others". Often, success in the engagement is the end or the objective. In reality, these interactions usually involve secondary and tertiary effects with potentially wide ranging consequences. The concern is that learning culture within a strict engagement context might lead to "checklist" cultural thinking that will not empower learners to understand the full consequence of their actions. We propose the use of agent based modeling (ABM) to collect, store, and, simulating the effects of social networks, promulgate engagement effects over time, distance, and consequence. The ABM development allows for rapid modification to re-create any number of population types, extending the applicability of the model to any requirement for social modeling.

  9. Agent-Based Modeling of Noncommunicable Diseases: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Arah, Onyebuchi A.

    2015-01-01

    We reviewed the use of agent-based modeling (ABM), a systems science method, in understanding noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and their public health risk factors. We systematically reviewed studies in PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Web of Sciences published from January 2003 to July 2014. We retrieved 22 relevant articles; each had an observational or interventional design. Physical activity and diet were the most-studied outcomes. Often, single agent types were modeled, and the environment was usually irrelevant to the studied outcome. Predictive validation and sensitivity analyses were most used to validate models. Although increasingly used to study NCDs, ABM remains underutilized and, where used, is suboptimally reported in public health studies. Its use in studying NCDs will benefit from clarified best practices and improved rigor to establish its usefulness and facilitate replication, interpretation, and application. PMID:25602871

  10. About Banking.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pieslak, Raymond F.

    The student manual for high school level special needs students was prepared to provide deaf students with the basic fundamentals of banking. Five units are presented covering the topics of banks and banking services, checking accounts, other services of banks, savings accounts, and other investments. Each lesson was carefully written for easy…

  11. Investigating the role of water in the Diffusion of Cholera using Agent-Based simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Augustijn, Ellen-Wien; Doldersum, Tom; Augustijn, Denie

    2014-05-01

    Traditionally, cholera was considered to be a waterborne disease. Currently we know that many other factors can contribute to the spread of this disease including human mobility and human behavior. However, the hydrological component in cholera diffusion is significant. The interplay between cholera and water includes bacteria (V. cholera) that survive in the aquatic environment, the possibility that run-off water from dumpsites carries the bacteria to surface water (rivers and lakes), and when the bacteria reach streams they can be carried downstream to infect new locations. Modelling is a very important tool to build theory on the interplay between different types of transmission mechanisms that together are responsible for the spread of Cholera. Agent-based simulation models are very suitable to incorporate behavior at individual level and to reproduce emergence. However, it is more difficult to incorporate the hydrological components in this type of model. In this research we present the hydrological component of an Agent-Based Cholera model developed to study a Cholera epidemic in Kumasi (Ghana) in 2005. The model was calibrated on the relative contribution of each community to the distributed pattern of cholera rather than the absolute number of incidences. Analysis of the results shows that water plays an important role in the diffusion of cholera: 75% of the cholera cases were infected via river water that was contaminated by runoff from the dumpsites. To initiate infections upstream, the probability of environment-to-human transmission seemed to be overestimated compared to what may be expected from literature. Scenario analyses show that there is a strong relation between the epidemic curve and the rainfall. Removing dumpsites that are situated close to the river resulted in a strong decrease in the number of cholera cases. Results are sensitive to the scheduling of the daily activities and the survival time of the cholera bacteria.

  12. Combination HIV prevention among MSM in South Africa: results from agent-based modeling.

    PubMed

    Brookmeyer, Ron; Boren, David; Baral, Stefan D; Bekker, Linda-Gail; Phaswana-Mafuya, Nancy; Beyrer, Chris; Sullivan, Patrick S

    2014-01-01

    HIV prevention trials have demonstrated the effectiveness of a number of behavioral and biomedical interventions. HIV prevention packages are combinations of interventions and offer potential to significantly increase the effectiveness of any single intervention. Estimates of the effectiveness of prevention packages are important for guiding the development of prevention strategies and for characterizing effect sizes before embarking on large scale trials. Unfortunately, most research to date has focused on testing single interventions rather than HIV prevention packages. Here we report the results from agent-based modeling of the effectiveness of HIV prevention packages for men who have sex with men (MSM) in South Africa. We consider packages consisting of four components: antiretroviral therapy for HIV infected persons with CD4 count <350; PrEP for high risk uninfected persons; behavioral interventions to reduce rates of unprotected anal intercourse (UAI); and campaigns to increase HIV testing. We considered 163 HIV prevention packages corresponding to different intensity levels of the four components. We performed 2252 simulation runs of our agent-based model to evaluate those packages. We found that a four component package consisting of a 15% reduction in the rate of UAI, 50% PrEP coverage of high risk uninfected persons, 50% reduction in persons who never test for HIV, and 50% ART coverage over and above persons already receiving ART at baseline, could prevent 33.9% of infections over 5 years (95% confidence interval, 31.5, 36.3). The package components with the largest incremental prevention effects were UAI reduction and PrEP coverage. The impact of increased HIV testing was magnified in the presence of PrEP. We find that HIV prevention packages that include both behavioral and biomedical components can in combination prevent significant numbers of infections with levels of coverage, acceptance and adherence that are potentially achievable among MSM in

  13. Combination HIV Prevention among MSM in South Africa: Results from Agent-based Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Brookmeyer, Ron; Boren, David; Baral, Stefan D.; Bekker, Linda- Gail; Phaswana-Mafuya, Nancy; Beyrer, Chris; Sullivan, Patrick S.

    2014-01-01

    HIV prevention trials have demonstrated the effectiveness of a number of behavioral and biomedical interventions. HIV prevention packages are combinations of interventions and offer potential to significantly increase the effectiveness of any single intervention. Estimates of the effectiveness of prevention packages are important for guiding the development of prevention strategies and for characterizing effect sizes before embarking on large scale trials. Unfortunately, most research to date has focused on testing single interventions rather than HIV prevention packages. Here we report the results from agent-based modeling of the effectiveness of HIV prevention packages for men who have sex with men (MSM) in South Africa. We consider packages consisting of four components: antiretroviral therapy for HIV infected persons with CD4 count <350; PrEP for high risk uninfected persons; behavioral interventions to reduce rates of unprotected anal intercourse (UAI); and campaigns to increase HIV testing. We considered 163 HIV prevention packages corresponding to different intensity levels of the four components. We performed 2252 simulation runs of our agent-based model to evaluate those packages. We found that a four component package consisting of a 15% reduction in the rate of UAI, 50% PrEP coverage of high risk uninfected persons, 50% reduction in persons who never test for HIV, and 50% ART coverage over and above persons already receiving ART at baseline, could prevent 33.9% of infections over 5 years (95% confidence interval, 31.5, 36.3). The package components with the largest incremental prevention effects were UAI reduction and PrEP coverage. The impact of increased HIV testing was magnified in the presence of PrEP. We find that HIV prevention packages that include both behavioral and biomedical components can in combination prevent significant numbers of infections with levels of coverage, acceptance and adherence that are potentially achievable among MSM in

  14. Policy design and performance of emissions trading markets: an adaptive agent-based analysis.

    PubMed

    Bing, Zhang; Qinqin, Yu; Jun, Bi

    2010-08-01

    Emissions trading is considered to be a cost-effective environmental economic instrument for pollution control. However, the pilot emissions trading programs in China have failed to bring remarkable success in the campaign for pollution control. The policy design of an emissions trading program is found to have a decisive impact on its performance. In this study, an artificial market for sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions trading applying the agent-based model was constructed. The performance of the Jiangsu SO2 emissions trading market under different policy design scenario was also examined. Results show that the market efficiency of emissions trading is significantly affected by policy design and existing policies. China's coal-electricity price system is the principal factor influencing the performance of the SO2 emissions trading market. Transaction costs would also reduce market efficiency. In addition, current-level emissions discharge fee/tax and banking mechanisms do not distinctly affect policy performance. Thus, applying emissions trading in emission control in China should consider policy design and interaction with other existing policies. PMID:20590153

  15. Evaluating Water Demand Using Agent-Based Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowry, T. S.

    2004-12-01

    The supply and demand of water resources are functions of complex, inter-related systems including hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy. To assess the safety and sustainability of water resources, planners often rely on complex numerical models that relate some or all of these systems using mathematical abstractions. The accuracy of these models relies on how well the abstractions capture the true nature of the systems interactions. Typically, these abstractions are based on analyses of observations and/or experiments that account only for the statistical mean behavior of each system. This limits the approach in two important ways: 1) It cannot capture cross-system disruptive events, such as major drought, significant policy change, or terrorist attack, and 2) it cannot resolve sub-system level responses. To overcome these limitations, we are developing an agent-based water resources model that includes the systems of hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy, to examine water demand during normal and extraordinary conditions. Agent-based modeling (ABM) develops functional relationships between systems by modeling the interaction between individuals (agents), who behave according to a probabilistic set of rules. ABM is a "bottom-up" modeling approach in that it defines macro-system behavior by modeling the micro-behavior of individual agents. While each agent's behavior is often simple and predictable, the aggregate behavior of all agents in each system can be complex, unpredictable, and different than behaviors observed in mean-behavior models. Furthermore, the ABM approach creates a virtual laboratory where the effects of policy changes and/or extraordinary events can be simulated. Our model, which is based on the demographics and hydrology of the Middle Rio Grande Basin in the state of New Mexico, includes agent groups of residential, agricultural, and industrial users. Each agent within each group determines its water usage

  16. Serious games experiment toward agent-based simulation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wein, Anne; Labiosa, William

    2013-01-01

    We evaluate the potential for serious games to be used as a scientifically based decision-support product that supports the United States Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission--to provide integrated, unbiased scientific information that can make a substantial contribution to societal well-being for a wide variety of complex environmental challenges. Serious or pedagogical games are an engaging way to educate decisionmakers and stakeholders about environmental challenges that are usefully informed by natural and social scientific information and knowledge and can be designed to promote interactive learning and exploration in the face of large uncertainties, divergent values, and complex situations. We developed two serious games that use challenging environmental-planning issues to demonstrate and investigate the potential contributions of serious games to inform regional-planning decisions. Delta Skelta is a game emulating long-term integrated environmental planning in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, that incorporates natural hazards (flooding and earthquakes) and consequences for California water supplies amidst conflicting water interests. Age of Ecology is a game that simulates interactions between economic and ecologic processes, as well as natural hazards while implementing agent-based modeling. The content of these games spans the USGS science mission areas related to water, ecosystems, natural hazards, land use, and climate change. We describe the games, reflect on design and informational aspects, and comment on their potential usefulness. During the process of developing these games, we identified various design trade-offs involving factual information, strategic thinking, game-winning criteria, elements of fun, number and type of players, time horizon, and uncertainty. We evaluate the two games in terms of accomplishments and limitations. Overall, we demonstrated the potential for these games to usefully represent scientific information

  17. Improving Agent Based Models and Validation through Data Fusion

    PubMed Central

    Laskowski, Marek; Demianyk, Bryan C.P.; Friesen, Marcia R.; McLeod, Robert D.; Mukhi, Shamir N.

    2011-01-01

    This work is contextualized in research in modeling and simulation of infection spread within a community or population, with the objective to provide a public health and policy tool in assessing the dynamics of infection spread and the qualitative impacts of public health interventions. This work uses the integration of real data sources into an Agent Based Model (ABM) to simulate respiratory infection spread within a small municipality. Novelty is derived in that the data sources are not necessarily obvious within ABM infection spread models. The ABM is a spatial-temporal model inclusive of behavioral and interaction patterns between individual agents on a real topography. The agent behaviours (movements and interactions) are fed by census / demographic data, integrated with real data from a telecommunication service provider (cellular records) and person-person contact data obtained via a custom 3G Smartphone application that logs Bluetooth connectivity between devices. Each source provides data of varying type and granularity, thereby enhancing the robustness of the model. The work demonstrates opportunities in data mining and fusion that can be used by policy and decision makers. The data become real-world inputs into individual SIR disease spread models and variants, thereby building credible and non-intrusive models to qualitatively simulate and assess public health interventions at the population level. PMID:23569606

  18. Measure of Landscape Heterogeneity by Agent-Based Methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wirth, E.; Szabó, Gy.; Czinkóczky, A.

    2016-06-01

    With the rapid increase of the world's population, the efficient food production is one of the key factors of the human survival. Since biodiversity and heterogeneity is the basis of the sustainable agriculture, the authors tried to measure the heterogeneity of a chosen landscape. The EU farming and subsidizing policies (EEA, 2014) support landscape heterogeneity and diversity, nevertheless exact measurements and calculations apart from statistical parameters (standard deviation, mean), do not really exist. In the present paper the authors' goal is to find an objective, dynamic method that measures landscape heterogeneity. It is achieved with the so called agent-based modelling, where randomly dispatched dynamic scouts record the observed land cover parameters and sum up the features of a new type of land. During the simulation the agents collect a Monte Carlo integral as a diversity landscape potential which can be considered as the unit of the `greening' measure. As a final product of the ABM method, a landscape potential map is obtained that can serve as a tool for objective decision making to support agricultural diversity.

  19. Dynamic calibration of agent-based models using data assimilation.

    PubMed

    Ward, Jonathan A; Evans, Andrew J; Malleson, Nicolas S

    2016-04-01

    A widespread approach to investigating the dynamical behaviour of complex social systems is via agent-based models (ABMs). In this paper, we describe how such models can be dynamically calibrated using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a standard method of data assimilation. Our goal is twofold. First, we want to present the EnKF in a simple setting for the benefit of ABM practitioners who are unfamiliar with it. Second, we want to illustrate to data assimilation experts the value of using such methods in the context of ABMs of complex social systems and the new challenges these types of model present. We work towards these goals within the context of a simple question of practical value: how many people are there in Leeds (or any other major city) right now? We build a hierarchy of exemplar models that we use to demonstrate how to apply the EnKF and calibrate these using open data of footfall counts in Leeds. PMID:27152214

  20. Patient-centered appointment scheduling using agent-based simulation.

    PubMed

    Turkcan, Ayten; Toscos, Tammy; Doebbeling, Brad N

    2014-01-01

    Enhanced access and continuity are key components of patient-centered care. Existing studies show that several interventions such as providing same day appointments, walk-in services, after-hours care, and group appointments, have been used to redesign the healthcare systems for improved access to primary care. However, an intervention focusing on a single component of care delivery (i.e. improving access to acute care) might have a negative impact other components of the system (i.e. reduced continuity of care for chronic patients). Therefore, primary care clinics should consider implementing multiple interventions tailored for their patient population needs. We collected rapid ethnography and observations to better understand clinic workflow and key constraints. We then developed an agent-based simulation model that includes all access modalities (appointments, walk-ins, and after-hours access), incorporate resources and key constraints and determine the best appointment scheduling method that improves access and continuity of care. This paper demonstrates the value of simulation models to test a variety of alternative strategies to improve access to care through scheduling. PMID:25954423

  1. Agent-based modelling of consumer energy choices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rai, Varun; Henry, Adam Douglas

    2016-06-01

    Strategies to mitigate global climate change should be grounded in a rigorous understanding of energy systems, particularly the factors that drive energy demand. Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a powerful tool for representing the complexities of energy demand, such as social interactions and spatial constraints. Unlike other approaches for modelling energy demand, ABM is not limited to studying perfectly rational agents or to abstracting micro details into system-level equations. Instead, ABM provides the ability to represent behaviours of energy consumers -- such as individual households -- using a range of theories, and to examine how the interaction of heterogeneous agents at the micro-level produces macro outcomes of importance to the global climate, such as the adoption of low-carbon behaviours and technologies over space and time. We provide an overview of ABM work in the area of consumer energy choices, with a focus on identifying specific ways in which ABM can improve understanding of both fundamental scientific and applied aspects of the demand side of energy to aid the design of better policies and programmes. Future research needs for improving the practice of ABM to better understand energy demand are also discussed.

  2. Agent-based Transaction management for Mobile Multidatabase

    SciTech Connect

    Ongtang, Machigar; Hurson, Ali R.; Jiao, Yu; Potok, Thomas E

    2007-01-01

    The requirements to access and manipulate data across multiple heterogeneous existing databases and the proliferation of mobile technologies have propelled the development of mobile multidatabase system (MDBS). In that environment, transaction management is not a trivial task due to the technological constraints. Agent technology is an evolving research area, which has been applied to several application domains. This paper proposes an Agent-based Transaction Management for Mobile Multidatabase (AT3M) system. AT3M applies static and mobile agents to manage the transaction processing in mobile multidatabase system. It enables a fully distributed transaction management, accommodates mobility of the mobile clients, and allows global subtransactions to process in parallel. The proposed algorithm utilizes the hierarchical meta data structure of Summary Schema Model (SSM) which captures semantic information of data objects in the underlying local databases at different levels of abstractions. It is shown by simulation that AT3M suits well in mobile multidatabase environment and outperforms the existing V-Locking algorithm designed for the same environment in many aspects.

  3. E-laboratories : agent-based modeling of electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect

    North, M.; Conzelmann, G.; Koritarov, V.; Macal, C.; Thimmapuram, P.; Veselka, T.

    2002-05-03

    Electricity markets are complex adaptive systems that operate under a wide range of rules that span a variety of time scales. These rules are imposed both from above by society and below by physics. Many electricity markets are undergoing or are about to undergo a transition from centrally regulated systems to decentralized markets. Furthermore, several electricity markets have recently undergone this transition with extremely unsatisfactory results, most notably in California. These high stakes transitions require the introduction of largely untested regulatory structures. Suitable laboratories that can be used to test regulatory structures before they are applied to real systems are needed. Agent-based models can provide such electronic laboratories or ''e-laboratories.'' To better understand the requirements of an electricity market e-laboratory, a live electricity market simulation was created. This experience helped to shape the development of the Electricity Market Complex Adaptive Systems (EMCAS) model. To explore EMCAS' potential as an e-laboratory, several variations of the live simulation were created. These variations probed the possible effects of changing power plant outages and price setting rules on electricity market prices.

  4. Agent-based modeling to simulate the dengue spread

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Chengbin; Tao, Haiyan; Ye, Zhiwei

    2008-10-01

    In this paper, we introduce a novel method ABM in simulating the unique process for the dengue spread. Dengue is an acute infectious disease with a long history of over 200 years. Unlike the diseases that can be transmitted directly from person to person, dengue spreads through a must vector of mosquitoes. There is still no any special effective medicine and vaccine for dengue up till now. The best way to prevent dengue spread is to take precautions beforehand. Thus, it is crucial to detect and study the dynamic process of dengue spread that closely relates to human-environment interactions where Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) effectively works. The model attempts to simulate the dengue spread in a more realistic way in the bottom-up way, and to overcome the limitation of ABM, namely overlooking the influence of geographic and environmental factors. Considering the influence of environment, Aedes aegypti ecology and other epidemiological characteristics of dengue spread, ABM can be regarded as a useful way to simulate the whole process so as to disclose the essence of the evolution of dengue spread.

  5. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation on Emergency Evacuation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Chuanjun; Yang, Chenghui; Jin, Shiyao

    Crowd stampedes and evacuation induced by panic caused by emergences often lead to fatalities as people are crushed, injured, trampled or even dead. Such phenomena may be triggered in life-threatening situations such as fires, explosions in crowded buildings. Emergency evacuation simulation has recently attracted the interest of a rapidly increasing number of scientists. This paper presents an Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation using Repast software to construct crowd evacuations for emergency response from an area under a fire. Various types of agents and different attributes of agents are designed in contrast to traditional modeling. The attributes that govern the characteristics of the people are studied and tested by iterative simulations. Simulations are also conducted to demonstrate the effect of various parameters of agents. Some interesting results were observed such as "faster is slower" and the ignorance of available exits. At last, simulation results suggest practical ways of minimizing the harmful consequences of such events and the existence of an optimal escape strategy.

  6. Simulation of convoy of unmanned vehicles using agent based modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Sharad; Singh, Harpreet; Gerhart, G. R.

    2007-10-01

    There has been an increasing interest of unmanned vehicles keeping the importance of defense and security. A few models for a convoy of unmanned vehicle exist in literature. The objective of this paper is to exploit agent based modeling technique for a convoy of unmanned vehicles where each vehicle is an agent. Using this approach, the convoy of vehicles reaches a specified goal from a starting point. Each agent is associated with number of sensors. The agents make intelligent decisions based on sensor inputs and at the same time maintaining their group capability and behavior. The simulation is done for a battlefield environment from a single starting point to a single goal. This approach can be extended for multiple starting points to reach multiple goals. The simulation gives the time taken by the convoy to reach a goal from its initial position. In the battlefield environment, commanders make various tactical decisions depending upon the location of an enemy outpost, minefields, number of soldiers in platoons, and barriers. The simulation can help the commander to make effective decisions depending on battlefield, convoy and obstacles to reach a particular goal. The paper describes the proposed approach and gives the simulation results. The paper also gives problems for future research in this area.

  7. Domination and evolution in agent based model of an economy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazmi, Syed S.

    We introduce Agent Based Model of a pure exchange economy and a simple economy that includes production, consumption and distributions. Markets are described by Edgeworth Exchange in both models. Trades are binary bilateral trades at prices that are set in each trade. We found that the prices converge over time to a value that is not the standard Equilibrium value given by the Walrasian Tattonement fiction. The average price, and the distributions of Wealth, depends on the degree of Domination (persuasive power) we introduced based on differentials in trading "leverage" due to wealth differences. The full economy model is allowed to evolve by replacement of agents that do not survive with agents having random properties. We found that, depending upon the average productivity compared to the average consumption, very different kinds of behavior emerged. The Economy as a whole reaches a steady state by the population adapting to the conditions of productivity and consumption. Correlations develop in a population between what would be for each individual a random assignment of Productivity, Labor power, Wealth, and Preferences. The population adapts to the economic environment by development of these Correlations and without any learning process. We see signs of emerging social structure as a result of necessity of survival.

  8. An agent-based mathematical model about carp aggregation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Yu; Wu, Chao

    2005-05-01

    This work presents an agent-based mathematical model to simulate the aggregation of carp, a harmful fish in North America. The referred mathematical model is derived from the following assumptions: (1) instead of the consensus among every carps involved in the aggregation, the aggregation of carp is completely a random and spontaneous physical behavior of numerous of independent carp; (2) carp aggregation is a collective effect of inter-carp and carp-environment interaction; (3) the inter-carp interaction can be derived from the statistical analytics about large-scale observed data. The proposed mathematical model is mainly based on empirical inter-carp force field, whose effect is featured with repulsion, parallel orientation, attraction, out-of-perception zone, and blind. Based on above mathematical model, the aggregation behavior of carp is formulated and preliminary simulation results about the aggregation of small number of carps within simple environment are provided. Further experiment-based validation about the mathematical model will be made in our future work.

  9. Agent-based copyright protection architecture for online electronic publishing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yi, Xun; Kitazawa, S.; Okamoto, Ejii; Wang, Xiao F.; Lam, KwokYan; Tu, S.

    1999-04-01

    Electronic publishing faces one major technical and economic challenge, i.e., how to prevent individuals from easily copying and illegally distributing electronic documents. Conventional cryptographic systems permit only valid key- holders access to encrypted data, but once such data is decrypted there is no way to track its reproduction or retransmission. Therefore, they provide little protection against data privacy, in which a publisher is confronted with unauthorized reproduction of information. In this paper, we explore the use of intelligent agent, digital watermark and cryptographic techniques to discourage the distribution of illegal electronic copies and propose an agent-based strategy to protect the copyright of on-line electronic publishing. In fact, it is impossible to develop an absolute secure copyright protection architecture for on-line electronic publishing which can prevent a malicious customer from spending a great deal of efforts on analyzing the software and finally obtaining the plaintext of the encrypted electronic document. Our work in this paper aims at making the value of analyzing agent and removing watermark to be much greater than that of the electronic document itself.

  10. Agent-based reasoning for distributed multi-INT analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inchiosa, Mario E.; Parker, Miles T.; Perline, Richard

    2006-05-01

    Fully exploiting the intelligence community's exponentially growing data resources will require computational approaches differing radically from those currently available. Intelligence data is massive, distributed, and heterogeneous. Conventional approaches requiring highly structured and centralized data will not meet this challenge. We report on a new approach, Agent-Based Reasoning (ABR). In NIST evaluations, the use of ABR software tripled analysts' solution speed, doubled accuracy, and halved perceived difficulty. ABR makes use of populations of fine-grained, locally interacting agents that collectively reason about intelligence scenarios in a self-organizing, "bottom-up" process akin to those found in biological and other complex systems. Reproduction rules allow agents to make inferences from multi-INT data, while movement rules organize information and optimize reasoning. Complementary deterministic and stochastic agent behaviors enhance reasoning power and flexibility. Agent interaction via small-world networks - such as are found in nervous systems, social networks, and power distribution grids - dramatically increases the rate of discovering intelligence fragments that usefully connect to yield new inferences. Small-world networks also support the distributed processing necessary to address intelligence community data challenges. In addition, we have found that ABR pre-processing can boost the performance of commercial text clustering software. Finally, we have demonstrated interoperability with Knowledge Engineering systems and seen that reasoning across diverse data sources can be a rich source of inferences.

  11. Dynamic calibration of agent-based models using data assimilation

    PubMed Central

    Ward, Jonathan A.; Evans, Andrew J.; Malleson, Nicolas S.

    2016-01-01

    A widespread approach to investigating the dynamical behaviour of complex social systems is via agent-based models (ABMs). In this paper, we describe how such models can be dynamically calibrated using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a standard method of data assimilation. Our goal is twofold. First, we want to present the EnKF in a simple setting for the benefit of ABM practitioners who are unfamiliar with it. Second, we want to illustrate to data assimilation experts the value of using such methods in the context of ABMs of complex social systems and the new challenges these types of model present. We work towards these goals within the context of a simple question of practical value: how many people are there in Leeds (or any other major city) right now? We build a hierarchy of exemplar models that we use to demonstrate how to apply the EnKF and calibrate these using open data of footfall counts in Leeds. PMID:27152214

  12. Validation techniques of agent based modelling for geospatial simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Darvishi, M.; Ahmadi, G.

    2014-10-01

    One of the most interesting aspects of modelling and simulation study is to describe the real world phenomena that have specific properties; especially those that are in large scales and have dynamic and complex behaviours. Studying these phenomena in the laboratory is costly and in most cases it is impossible. Therefore, Miniaturization of world phenomena in the framework of a model in order to simulate the real phenomena is a reasonable and scientific approach to understand the world. Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) is a new modelling method comprising of multiple interacting agent. They have been used in the different areas; for instance, geographic information system (GIS), biology, economics, social science and computer science. The emergence of ABM toolkits in GIS software libraries (e.g. ESRI's ArcGIS, OpenMap, GeoTools, etc) for geospatial modelling is an indication of the growing interest of users to use of special capabilities of ABMS. Since ABMS is inherently similar to human cognition, therefore it could be built easily and applicable to wide range applications than a traditional simulation. But a key challenge about ABMS is difficulty in their validation and verification. Because of frequent emergence patterns, strong dynamics in the system and the complex nature of ABMS, it is hard to validate and verify ABMS by conventional validation methods. Therefore, attempt to find appropriate validation techniques for ABM seems to be necessary. In this paper, after reviewing on Principles and Concepts of ABM for and its applications, the validation techniques and challenges of ABM validation are discussed.

  13. Agent Based Modeling of Human Gut Microbiome Interactions and Perturbations

    PubMed Central

    Shashkova, Tatiana; Popenko, Anna; Tyakht, Alexander; Peskov, Kirill; Kosinsky, Yuri; Bogolubsky, Lev; Raigorodskii, Andrei; Ischenko, Dmitry; Alexeev, Dmitry; Govorun, Vadim

    2016-01-01

    Background Intestinal microbiota plays an important role in the human health. It is involved in the digestion and protects the host against external pathogens. Examination of the intestinal microbiome interactions is required for understanding of the community influence on host health. Studies of the microbiome can provide insight on methods of improving health, including specific clinical procedures for individual microbial community composition modification and microbiota correction by colonizing with new bacterial species or dietary changes. Methodology/Principal Findings In this work we report an agent-based model of interactions between two bacterial species and between species and the gut. The model is based on reactions describing bacterial fermentation of polysaccharides to acetate and propionate and fermentation of acetate to butyrate. Antibiotic treatment was chosen as disturbance factor and used to investigate stability of the system. System recovery after antibiotic treatment was analyzed as dependence on quantity of feedback interactions inside the community, therapy duration and amount of antibiotics. Bacterial species are known to mutate and acquire resistance to the antibiotics. The ability to mutate was considered to be a stochastic process, under this suggestion ratio of sensitive to resistant bacteria was calculated during antibiotic therapy and recovery. Conclusion/Significance The model confirms a hypothesis of feedbacks mechanisms necessity for providing functionality and stability of the system after disturbance. High fraction of bacterial community was shown to mutate during antibiotic treatment, though sensitive strains could become dominating after recovery. The recovery of sensitive strains is explained by fitness cost of the resistance. The model demonstrates not only quantitative dynamics of bacterial species, but also gives an ability to observe the emergent spatial structure and its alteration, depending on various feedback mechanisms

  14. MonALISA: An agent based, dynamic service system to monitor, control and optimize distributed systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Legrand, I.; Newman, H.; Voicu, R.; Cirstoiu, C.; Grigoras, C.; Dobre, C.; Muraru, A.; Costan, A.; Dediu, M.; Stratan, C.

    2009-12-01

    The MonALISA (Monitoring Agents in a Large Integrated Services Architecture) framework provides a set of distributed services for monitoring, control, management and global optimization for large scale distributed systems. It is based on an ensemble of autonomous, multi-threaded, agent-based subsystems which are registered as dynamic services. They can be automatically discovered and used by other services or clients. The distributed agents can collaborate and cooperate in performing a wide range of management, control and global optimization tasks using real time monitoring information. Program summaryProgram title: MonALISA Catalogue identifier: AEEZ_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEEZ_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Caltech License - free for all non-commercial activities No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 147 802 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 2 5913 689 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Java, additional APIs available in Java, C, C++, Perl and python Computer: Computing Clusters, Network Devices, Storage Systems, Large scale data intensive applications Operating system: The MonALISA service is mainly used in Linux, the MonALISA client runs on all major platforms (Windows, Linux, Solaris, MacOS). Has the code been vectorized or parallelized?: It is a multithreaded application. It will efficiently use all the available processors. RAM: for the MonALISA service the minimum required memory is 64 MB; if the JVM is started allocating more memory this will be used for internal caching. The MonALISA client requires typically 256-512 MB of memory. Classification: 6.5 External routines: Requires Java: JRE or JDK to run. These external packages are used (they are included in the distribution): JINI, JFreeChart, PostgreSQL (optional). Nature of problem: To monitor and control

  15. Identifying Evacuees' Demand of Tsunami Shelters using Agent Based Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mas, E.; Adriano, B.; Koshimura, S.; Imamura, F.; Kuroiwa, J.; Yamazaki, F.; Zavala, C.; Estrada, M.

    2012-12-01

    Amongst the lessons learned in tsunami events such as the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Great Tohoku Japan earthquake is that sometimes nature exceeds structural countermeasures like seawalls, breakwaters or tsunami gates. In such situations it is a challenging task for people in plain areas to find sheltering places. The vertical evacuation to multistory buildings is one alternative to provide areas for sheltering in a complex environment of evacuation. However, if the spatial distribution and the available capacity of these structures are not well displayed, conditions of evacuee over-demand or under-demand might be observed in several structures. In this study, we present the integration of the tsunami numerical modeling and the agent based simulation of evacuation as the method to estimate the sheltering demand of evacuees in an emergent behavior approach. The case study is set in La Punta district in Peru. Here, we used in the tsunami simulation a seismic source of slip distribution model (Pulido et.al. ,2011; Chlieh et.al, 2011) for a possible future tsunami scenario in the central Andes. We modeled three alternatives of evacuation. First, the horizontal evacuation scenario was analyzed to support the necessity of the sheltering-in-place option for the district. Second, the vertical evacuation scenario and third, the combination of vertical and horizontal evacuation scenarios of pedestrians and vehicles were conducted. In the last two alternatives, the demand of evacuees were measured at each official tsunami evacuation building and compared to the sheltering capacity of the structure. Results showed that out of twenty tsunami evacuation buildings, thirteen resulted with over-demands and seven were still with available space. Also it is confirmed that in this case the horizontal evacuation might lead to a high number of casualties due to the traffic congestion at the neck of the district. Finally the vertical evacuation would be a suitable solution for this area

  16. Multi-scale analysis of a household level agent-based model of landcover change.

    PubMed

    Evans, Tom P; Kelley, Hugh

    2004-08-01

    Scale issues have significant implications for the analysis of social and biophysical processes in complex systems. These same scale implications are likewise considerations for the design and application of models of landcover change. Scale issues have wide-ranging effects from the representativeness of data used to validate models to aggregation errors introduced in the model structure. This paper presents an analysis of how scale issues affect an agent-based model (ABM) of landcover change developed for a research area in the Midwest, USA. The research presented here explores how scale factors affect the design and application of agent-based landcover change models. The ABM is composed of a series of heterogeneous agents who make landuse decisions on a portfolio of cells in a raster-based programming environment. The model is calibrated using measures of fit derived from both spatial composition and spatial pattern metrics from multi-temporal landcover data interpreted from historical aerial photography. A model calibration process is used to find a best-fit set of parameter weights assigned to agents' preferences for different landuses (agriculture, pasture, timber production, and non-harvested forest). Previous research using this model has shown how a heterogeneous set of agents with differing preferences for a portfolio of landuses produces the best fit to landcover changes observed in the study area. The scale dependence of the model is explored by varying the resolution of the input data used to calibrate the model (observed landcover), ancillary datasets that affect land suitability (topography), and the resolution of the model landscape on which agents make decisions. To explore the impact of these scale relationships the model is run with input datasets constructed at the following spatial resolutions: 60, 90, 120, 150, 240, 300 and 480 m. The results show that the distribution of landuse-preference weights differs as a function of scale. In addition

  17. Applications of Agent Based Approaches in Business (A Three Essay Dissertation)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prawesh, Shankar

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this dissertation is to investigate the enabling role that agent based simulation plays in business and policy. The aforementioned issue has been addressed in this dissertation through three distinct, but related essays. The first essay is a literature review of different research applications of agent based simulation in various…

  18. A Systematic Review of Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation Applications in the Higher Education Domain

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gu, X.; Blackmore, K. L.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a systematic review of agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) applications in the higher education (HE) domain. Agent-based modelling is a "bottom-up" modelling paradigm in which system-level behaviour (macro) is modelled through the behaviour of individual local-level agent interactions (micro).…

  19. From Agents to Continuous Change via Aesthetics: Learning Mechanics with Visual Agent-Based Computational Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sengupta, Pratim; Farris, Amy Voss; Wright, Mason

    2012-01-01

    Novice learners find motion as a continuous process of change challenging to understand. In this paper, we present a pedagogical approach based on agent-based, visual programming to address this issue. Integrating agent-based programming, in particular, Logo programming, with curricular science has been shown to be challenging in previous research…

  20. The Agent-based Approach: A New Direction for Computational Models of Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schlesinger, Matthew; Parisi, Domenico

    2001-01-01

    Introduces the concepts of online and offline sampling and highlights the role of online sampling in agent-based models of learning and development. Compares the strengths of each approach for modeling particular developmental phenomena and research questions. Describes a recent agent-based model of infant causal perception. Discusses limitations…

  1. Agent-Based Modeling of Chronic Diseases: A Narrative Review and Future Research Directions

    PubMed Central

    Lawley, Mark A.; Siscovick, David S.; Zhang, Donglan; Pagán, José A.

    2016-01-01

    The United States is experiencing an epidemic of chronic disease. As the US population ages, health care providers and policy makers urgently need decision models that provide systematic, credible prediction regarding the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases to improve population health management and medical decision-making. Agent-based modeling is a promising systems science approach that can model complex interactions and processes related to chronic health conditions, such as adaptive behaviors, feedback loops, and contextual effects. This article introduces agent-based modeling by providing a narrative review of agent-based models of chronic disease and identifying the characteristics of various chronic health conditions that must be taken into account to build effective clinical- and policy-relevant models. We also identify barriers to adopting agent-based models to study chronic diseases. Finally, we discuss future research directions of agent-based modeling applied to problems related to specific chronic health conditions. PMID:27236380

  2. Agent-Based Modeling of Chronic Diseases: A Narrative Review and Future Research Directions.

    PubMed

    Li, Yan; Lawley, Mark A; Siscovick, David S; Zhang, Donglan; Pagán, José A

    2016-01-01

    The United States is experiencing an epidemic of chronic disease. As the US population ages, health care providers and policy makers urgently need decision models that provide systematic, credible prediction regarding the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases to improve population health management and medical decision-making. Agent-based modeling is a promising systems science approach that can model complex interactions and processes related to chronic health conditions, such as adaptive behaviors, feedback loops, and contextual effects. This article introduces agent-based modeling by providing a narrative review of agent-based models of chronic disease and identifying the characteristics of various chronic health conditions that must be taken into account to build effective clinical- and policy-relevant models. We also identify barriers to adopting agent-based models to study chronic diseases. Finally, we discuss future research directions of agent-based modeling applied to problems related to specific chronic health conditions. PMID:27236380

  3. BELOW DECK DETAIL FROM EAST BANK. NOTE WROUGHT IRON LOWER ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    BELOW DECK DETAIL FROM EAST BANK. NOTE WROUGHT IRON LOWER CHORD TENSION MEMBERS - Honey Run Bridge, Spanning Butte Creek, bypassed section of Honey Run Road (originally Carr Hill Road), Paradise, Butte County, CA

  4. DNA Banking

    SciTech Connect

    Reilly, P.R. )

    1992-11-01

    The author is involved in the ethical, legal, and social issues of banking of DNA and data from DNA analysis. In his attempt to determine the extent of DNA banking in the U.S., the author surveyed some commercial companies performing DNA banking services. This article summarizes the results of that survey, with special emphasis on the procedures the companies use to protect the privacy of individuals. 4 refs.

  5. A methodology for the development of software agent based interoperable telemedicine systems: a tele-electrocardiography perspective.

    PubMed

    Ganguly, P; Ray, P

    2000-01-01

    Telemedicine involves the integration of information, human-machine, and healthcare technologies. Because different modalities of patient care require applications running on heterogeneous computing environment, software interoperability is a major issue in telemedicine. Software agent technology provides a range of promising techniques to solve this problem. This article discusses the development of a methodology for the design of interoperable telemedicine systems (illustrated with a tele-electrocardiography application). Software interoperability between different applications can be modeled at different levels of abstraction such as physical interoperability, data-type interoperability, specification-level interoperability, and semantic interoperability. Software agents address the issue of software interoperability at semantic level. A popular object-oriented software development methodology - unified modeling language (UML) - has been used for this development. This research has demonstrated the feasibility of the development of agent-based interoperable telemedicine systems. More research is needed before widespread deployment of such systems can take place. PMID:10957742

  6. The agent-based spatial information semantic grid

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cui, Wei; Zhu, YaQiong; Zhou, Yong; Li, Deren

    2006-10-01

    Analyzing the characteristic of multi-Agent and geographic Ontology, The concept of the Agent-based Spatial Information Semantic Grid (ASISG) is defined and the architecture of the ASISG is advanced. ASISG is composed with Multi-Agents and geographic Ontology. The Multi-Agent Systems are composed with User Agents, General Ontology Agent, Geo-Agents, Broker Agents, Resource Agents, Spatial Data Analysis Agents, Spatial Data Access Agents, Task Execution Agent and Monitor Agent. The architecture of ASISG have three layers, they are the fabric layer, the grid management layer and the application layer. The fabric layer what is composed with Data Access Agent, Resource Agent and Geo-Agent encapsulates the data of spatial information system so that exhibits a conceptual interface for the Grid management layer. The Grid management layer, which is composed with General Ontology Agent, Task Execution Agent and Monitor Agent and Data Analysis Agent, used a hybrid method to manage all resources that were registered in a General Ontology Agent that is described by a General Ontology System. The hybrid method is assembled by resource dissemination and resource discovery. The resource dissemination push resource from Local Ontology Agent to General Ontology Agent and the resource discovery pull resource from the General Ontology Agent to Local Ontology Agents. The Local Ontology Agent is derived from special domain and describes the semantic information of local GIS. The nature of the Local Ontology Agents can be filtrated to construct a virtual organization what could provides a global scheme. The virtual organization lightens the burdens of guests because they need not search information site by site manually. The application layer what is composed with User Agent, Geo-Agent and Task Execution Agent can apply a corresponding interface to a domain user. The functions that ASISG should provide are: 1) It integrates different spatial information systems on the semantic The Grid

  7. Brief introductory guide to agent-based modeling and an illustration from urban health research.

    PubMed

    Auchincloss, Amy H; Garcia, Leandro Martin Totaro

    2015-11-01

    There is growing interest among urban health researchers in addressing complex problems using conceptual and computation models from the field of complex systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is one computational modeling tool that has received a lot of interest. However, many researchers remain unfamiliar with developing and carrying out an ABM, hindering the understanding and application of it. This paper first presents a brief introductory guide to carrying out a simple agent-based model. Then, the method is illustrated by discussing a previously developed agent-based model, which explored inequalities in diet in the context of urban residential segregation. PMID:26648364

  8. A Hybrid Sensitivity Analysis Approach for Agent-based Disease Spread Models

    SciTech Connect

    Pullum, Laura L; Cui, Xiaohui

    2012-01-01

    Agent-based models (ABM) have been widely deployed in different fields for studying the collective behavior of large numbers of interacting agents. Of particular interest lately is the application of agent-based and hybrid models to epidemiology, specifically Agent-based Disease Spread Models (ABDSM). Validation (one aspect of the means to achieve dependability) of ABDSM simulation models is extremely important. It ensures that the right model has been built and lends confidence to the use of that model to inform critical decisions. In this report, we describe our preliminary efforts in ABDSM validation by using hybrid model fusion technology.

  9. Agent-based modeling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems

    PubMed Central

    Bonabeau, Eric

    2002-01-01

    Agent-based modeling is a powerful simulation modeling technique that has seen a number of applications in the last few years, including applications to real-world business problems. After the basic principles of agent-based simulation are briefly introduced, its four areas of application are discussed by using real-world applications: flow simulation, organizational simulation, market simulation, and diffusion simulation. For each category, one or several business applications are described and analyzed. PMID:12011407

  10. George Bank

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Codispoti, L. A.

    This book provides a rich feast for anyone who has a hunger to learn more about Georges Bank! Its 593 large pages provide articles on a wide variety of scientific and resource management topics. Many human interest features are also included. Among the latter are a photograph demonstrating the only proper way for a seagoing chemist to imbibe, and articles entitled, “My First Trip on Georges Bank,” and “‘Bait Up!’: Dory Fishing on Georges Bank.”Proving that every cloud has a silver lining, interest in producing this book was driven by the climate of controversy that surrounded Georges Bank in the latter 1970s and early 1980s. This was a time when exploratory wells were being driven to search for oil and when disputes between Canada and the United States about jurisdiction over the Bank were reaching their peak. As Backus notes in the Foreword, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Mass., set up a Coastal Research Center in 1979 when “the oil/fish dispute on Georges Bank was hot.” The direct costs of publishing this book were, in turn, supported by the Coastal Research Center.

  11. Dr. Sheehan on Running.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sheehan, George A.

    This book is both a personal and technical account of the experience of running by a heart specialist who began a running program at the age of 45. In its seventeen chapters, there is information presented on the spiritual, psychological, and physiological results of running; treatment of athletic injuries resulting from running; effects of diet…

  12. Toward an Agent-Based Model of Socially Optimal Water Rights Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehlen, M. A.

    2004-12-01

    There has been considerable interest lately in using public markets for buying and selling the rights to local water usage. Such water rights markets, if designed correctly, should be socially optimal, that is, should sell rights at prices that reflect the true value of water in the region, taking into account that water rights buyers and sellers represent a disparate group of private industry, public authorities, and private users, each having different water needs and different priority to local government. Good market design, however, is hard. As was experienced in California short-run electric power markets, a market design that on paper looks reasonable but in practice is mal-constructed can have devastating effects: firms can learn to manipulate prices by `playing' both sides of the market, and sellers can under-provide so as to create exorbitant prices which buyers have no choice but to pay. Economic theory provides several frameworks for developing a good water rights market design; for example, the structure-conduct-performance paradigm (SCPP) suggests that, among other things, the number and types of buyers and sellers (structure), and transaction clearing rules and government policies (conduct) affect in very particular ways the prices and quantities (performance) in the market. In slow-moving or static markets, SCPP has been a useful predictor of market performance; in faster markets the market dynamics that endogenously develop over time are often too complex to predict with SCPP or other existing modeling techniques. New, more sophisticated combinations of modeling and simulation are needed. Toward developing a good (i.e., socially optimal) water rights market design that can take into account the dynamics inherent in the water sector, we are developing an agent-based model of water rights markets. The model serves two purposes: first, it provides an SCPP-based framework of water rights markets that takes into account the particular structure of

  13. Efficient Allocation of Resources for Defense of Spatially Distributed Networks Using Agent-Based Simulation.

    PubMed

    Kroshl, William M; Sarkani, Shahram; Mazzuchi, Thomas A

    2015-09-01

    This article presents ongoing research that focuses on efficient allocation of defense resources to minimize the damage inflicted on a spatially distributed physical network such as a pipeline, water system, or power distribution system from an attack by an active adversary, recognizing the fundamental difference between preparing for natural disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes, or even accidental systems failures and the problem of allocating resources to defend against an opponent who is aware of, and anticipating, the defender's efforts to mitigate the threat. Our approach is to utilize a combination of integer programming and agent-based modeling to allocate the defensive resources. We conceptualize the problem as a Stackelberg "leader follower" game where the defender first places his assets to defend key areas of the network, and the attacker then seeks to inflict the maximum damage possible within the constraints of resources and network structure. The criticality of arcs in the network is estimated by a deterministic network interdiction formulation, which then informs an evolutionary agent-based simulation. The evolutionary agent-based simulation is used to determine the allocation of resources for attackers and defenders that results in evolutionary stable strategies, where actions by either side alone cannot increase its share of victories. We demonstrate these techniques on an example network, comparing the evolutionary agent-based results to a more traditional, probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) approach. Our results show that the agent-based approach results in a greater percentage of defender victories than does the PRA-based approach. PMID:25683347

  14. An extensible simulation environment and movement metrics for testing walking behavior in agent-based models

    SciTech Connect

    Paul M. Torrens; Atsushi Nara; Xun Li; Haojie Zhu; William A. Griffin; Scott B. Brown

    2012-01-01

    Human movement is a significant ingredient of many social, environmental, and technical systems, yet the importance of movement is often discounted in considering systems complexity. Movement is commonly abstracted in agent-based modeling (which is perhaps the methodological vehicle for modeling complex systems), despite the influence of movement upon information exchange and adaptation in a system. In particular, agent-based models of urban pedestrians often treat movement in proxy form at the expense of faithfully treating movement behavior with realistic agency. There exists little consensus about which method is appropriate for representing movement in agent-based schemes. In this paper, we examine popularly-used methods to drive movement in agent-based models, first by introducing a methodology that can flexibly handle many representations of movement at many different scales and second, introducing a suite of tools to benchmark agent movement between models and against real-world trajectory data. We find that most popular movement schemes do a relatively poor job of representing movement, but that some schemes may well be 'good enough' for some applications. We also discuss potential avenues for improving the representation of movement in agent-based frameworks.

  15. Going beyond the unitary curve: incorporating richer cognition into agent-based water resources models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kock, B. E.

    2008-12-01

    The increased availability and understanding of agent-based modeling technology and techniques provides a unique opportunity for water resources modelers, allowing them to go beyond traditional behavioral approaches from neoclassical economics, and add rich cognition to social-hydrological models. Agent-based models provide for an individual focus, and the easier and more realistic incorporation of learning, memory and other mechanisms for increased cognitive sophistication. We are in an age of global change impacting complex water resources systems, and social responses are increasingly recognized as fundamentally adaptive and emergent. In consideration of this, water resources models and modelers need to better address social dynamics in a manner beyond the capabilities of neoclassical economics theory and practice. However, going beyond the unitary curve requires unique levels of engagement with stakeholders, both to elicit the richer knowledge necessary for structuring and parameterizing agent-based models, but also to make sure such models are appropriately used. With the aim of encouraging epistemological and methodological convergence in the agent-based modeling of water resources, we have developed a water resources-specific cognitive model and an associated collaborative modeling process. Our cognitive model emphasizes efficiency in architecture and operation, and capacity to adapt to different application contexts. We describe a current application of this cognitive model and modeling process in the Arkansas Basin of Colorado. In particular, we highlight the potential benefits of, and challenges to, using more sophisticated cognitive models in agent-based water resources models.

  16. Reading, Writing, and Running.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Detherage, Jim

    1980-01-01

    Describes an English course that capitalizes on the popularity of running, integrating running with reading and writing activities. Notes the positive results of this interdisciplinary approach. Provides samples of student writings. (RL)

  17. On Running and Psychotherapy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dukes, Denzel; And Others

    1980-01-01

    Frederic Leer's article "Running as an Adjunct to Psychotherapy" (January 1980 issue of this journal) is criticized by three authors. They focus on the psychological and social effects of running and its usefulness as a treatment for depressed adults. (LAB)

  18. Simulating tissue mechanics with agent-based models: concepts, perspectives and some novel results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Liedekerke, P.; Palm, M. M.; Jagiella, N.; Drasdo, D.

    2015-12-01

    In this paper we present an overview of agent-based models that are used to simulate mechanical and physiological phenomena in cells and tissues, and we discuss underlying concepts, limitations, and future perspectives of these models. As the interest in cell and tissue mechanics increase, agent-based models are becoming more common the modeling community. We overview the physical aspects, complexity, shortcomings, and capabilities of the major agent-based model categories: lattice-based models (cellular automata, lattice gas cellular automata, cellular Potts models), off-lattice models (center-based models, deformable cell models, vertex models), and hybrid discrete-continuum models. In this way, we hope to assist future researchers in choosing a model for the phenomenon they want to model and understand. The article also contains some novel results.

  19. Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Agent-Based Complex Systems: Lessons from Ecology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Railsback, Steven F.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2005-11-01

    Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

  20. Demeter, persephone, and the search for emergence in agent-based models.

    SciTech Connect

    North, M. J.; Howe, T. R.; Collier, N. T.; Vos, J. R.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Chicago; PantaRei Corp.; Univ. of Illinois

    2006-01-01

    In Greek mythology, the earth goddess Demeter was unable to find her daughter Persephone after Persephone was abducted by Hades, the god of the underworld. Demeter is said to have embarked on a long and frustrating, but ultimately successful, search to find her daughter. Unfortunately, long and frustrating searches are not confined to Greek mythology. In modern times, agent-based modelers often face similar troubles when searching for agents that are to be to be connected to one another and when seeking appropriate target agents while defining agent behaviors. The result is a 'search for emergence' in that many emergent or potentially emergent behaviors in agent-based models of complex adaptive systems either implicitly or explicitly require search functions. This paper considers a new nested querying approach to simplifying such agent-based modeling and multi-agent simulation search problems.

  1. Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: Lessons from ecology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Railsback, Steven F.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2005-01-01

    Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

  2. Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: lessons from ecology.

    PubMed

    Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M; Railsback, Steven F; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L

    2005-11-11

    Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity. PMID:16284171

  3. Consentaneous Agent-Based and Stochastic Model of the Financial Markets

    PubMed Central

    Gontis, Vygintas; Kononovicius, Aleksejus

    2014-01-01

    We are looking for the agent-based treatment of the financial markets considering necessity to build bridges between microscopic, agent based, and macroscopic, phenomenological modeling. The acknowledgment that agent-based modeling framework, which may provide qualitative and quantitative understanding of the financial markets, is very ambiguous emphasizes the exceptional value of well defined analytically tractable agent systems. Herding as one of the behavior peculiarities considered in the behavioral finance is the main property of the agent interactions we deal with in this contribution. Looking for the consentaneous agent-based and macroscopic approach we combine two origins of the noise: exogenous one, related to the information flow, and endogenous one, arising form the complex stochastic dynamics of agents. As a result we propose a three state agent-based herding model of the financial markets. From this agent-based model we derive a set of stochastic differential equations, which describes underlying macroscopic dynamics of agent population and log price in the financial markets. The obtained solution is then subjected to the exogenous noise, which shapes instantaneous return fluctuations. We test both Gaussian and q-Gaussian noise as a source of the short term fluctuations. The resulting model of the return in the financial markets with the same set of parameters reproduces empirical probability and spectral densities of absolute return observed in New York, Warsaw and NASDAQ OMX Vilnius Stock Exchanges. Our result confirms the prevalent idea in behavioral finance that herding interactions may be dominant over agent rationality and contribute towards bubble formation. PMID:25029364

  4. Fun Fitness Runs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Scantling, Ed; Strand, Brad

    1997-01-01

    Fitness runs are planned activities that make running more interesting. The paper outlines five types of fitness runs, all of which can be modified to conform to different facilities, age groups, or available time. The activities have students playing detective, playing cards, deciphering words, learning about calories, and playing wolf. (SM)

  5. Biomechanics of Distance Running.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cavanagh, Peter R., Ed.

    Contributions from researchers in the field of running mechanics are included in the 13 chapters of this book. The following topics are covered: (1) "The Mechanics of Distance Running: A Historical Perspective" (Peter Cavanagh); (2) "Stride Length in Distance Running: Velocity, Body Dimensions, and Added Mass Effects" (Peter Cavanagh, Rodger…

  6. BONE BANKS

    PubMed Central

    de Alencar, Paulo Gilberto Cimbalista; Vieira, Inácio Facó Ventura

    2015-01-01

    Bone banks are necessary for providing biological material for a series of orthopedic procedures. The growing need for musculoskeletal tissues for transplantation has been due to the development of new surgical techniques, and this has led to a situation in which a variety of hospital services have been willing to have their own source of tissue for transplantation. To increase the safety of transplanted tissues, standards for bone bank operation have been imposed by the government, which has limited the number of authorized institutions. The good performance in a bone bank depends on strict control over all stages, including: formation of well-trained harvesting teams; donor selection; conducting various tests on the tissues obtained; and strict control over the processing techniques used. Combination of these factors enables greater scope of use and numbers of recipient patients, while the incidence of tissue contamination becomes statistically insignificant, and there is traceability between donors and recipients. This paper describes technical considerations relating to how a bone bank functions, the use of grafts and orthopedic applications, the ethical issues and the main obstacles encountered. PMID:27026958

  7. Evaluation of outbreak response immunization in the control of pertussis using agent-based modeling

    PubMed Central

    Qian, Weicheng; Osgood, Nathaniel D.

    2016-01-01

    Background Pertussis control remains a challenge due to recently observed effects of waning immunity to acellular vaccine and suboptimal vaccine coverage. Multiple outbreaks have been reported in different ages worldwide. For certain outbreaks, public health authorities can launch an outbreak response immunization (ORI) campaign to control pertussis spread. We investigated effects of an outbreak response immunization targeting young adolescents in averting pertussis cases. Methods We developed an agent-based model for pertussis transmission representing disease mechanism, waning immunity, vaccination schedule and pathogen transmission in a spatially-explicit 500,000-person contact network representing a typical Canadian Public Health district. Parameters were derived from literature and calibration. We used published cumulative incidence and dose-specific vaccine coverage to calibrate the model’s epidemiological curves. We endogenized outbreak response by defining thresholds to trigger simulated immunization campaigns in the 10–14 age group offering 80% coverage. We ran paired simulations with and without outbreak response immunization and included those resulting in a single ORI within a 10-year span. We calculated the number of cases averted attributable to outbreak immunization campaign in all ages, in the 10–14 age group and in infants. The count of cases averted were tested using Mann–Whitney U test to determine statistical significance. Numbers needed to vaccinate during immunization campaign to prevent a single case in respective age groups were derived from the model. We varied adult vaccine coverage, waning immunity parameters, immunization campaign eligibility and tested stronger vaccination boosting effect in sensitivity analyses. Results 189 qualified paired-runs were analyzed. On average, ORI was triggered every 26 years. On a per-run basis, there were an average of 124, 243 and 429 pertussis cases averted across all age groups within 1, 3 and

  8. An agent-based computational model for tuberculosis spreading on age-structured populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graciani Rodrigues, C. C.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

    2015-06-01

    In this work we present an agent-based computational model to study the spreading of the tuberculosis (TB) disease on age-structured populations. The model proposed is a merge of two previous models: an agent-based computational model for the spreading of tuberculosis and a bit-string model for biological aging. The combination of TB with the population aging, reproduces the coexistence of health states, as seen in real populations. In addition, the universal exponential behavior of mortalities curves is still preserved. Finally, the population distribution as function of age shows the prevalence of TB mostly in elders, for high efficacy treatments.

  9. Toward Agent-Based Models of the Development And Evolution of Business Relations and Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkinson, Ian F.; Marks, Robert E.; Young, Louise

    Firms achieve competitive advantage in part through the development of cooperative relations with other firms and organisations. We describe a program of research designed to map and model the development of cooperative inter-firm relations, including the processes and paths by which firms may evolve from adversarial to more cooperative relations. Narrative-event-history methods will be used to develop stylised histories of the emergence of business relations in various contexts and to identify relevant causal mechanisms to be included in the agent-based models of relationship and network evolution. The relationship histories will provide the means of assuring the agent-based models developed.

  10. An Agent-Based Model for Studying Child Maltreatment and Child Maltreatment Prevention

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Xiaolin; Puddy, Richard W.

    This paper presents an agent-based model that simulates the dynamics of child maltreatment and child maltreatment prevention. The developed model follows the principles of complex systems science and explicitly models a community and its families with multi-level factors and interconnections across the social ecology. This makes it possible to experiment how different factors and prevention strategies can affect the rate of child maltreatment. We present the background of this work and give an overview of the agent-based model and show some simulation results.

  11. Spatial process and data models : toward integration of agent-based models and GIS.

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, D. G.; North, M. J.; Robinson, D. T.; Riolo, R.; Rand, W.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Michigan

    2007-10-01

    The use of object-orientation for both spatial data and spatial process models facilitates their integration, which can allow exploration and explanation of spatial-temporal phenomena. In order to better understand how tight coupling might proceed and to evaluate the possible functional and efficiency gains from such a tight coupling, we identify four key relationships affecting how geographic data (fields and objects) and agent-based process models can interact: identity, causal, temporal and topological. We discuss approaches to implementing tight integration, focusing on a middleware approach that links existing GIS and ABM development platforms, and illustrate the need and approaches with example agent-based models.

  12. Agent-Based Modeling of Cancer Stem Cell Driven Solid Tumor Growth.

    PubMed

    Poleszczuk, Jan; Macklin, Paul; Enderling, Heiko

    2016-01-01

    Computational modeling of tumor growth has become an invaluable tool to simulate complex cell-cell interactions and emerging population-level dynamics. Agent-based models are commonly used to describe the behavior and interaction of individual cells in different environments. Behavioral rules can be informed and calibrated by in vitro assays, and emerging population-level dynamics may be validated with both in vitro and in vivo experiments. Here, we describe the design and implementation of a lattice-based agent-based model of cancer stem cell driven tumor growth. PMID:27044046

  13. Multi-agent based control of large-scale complex systems employing distributed dynamic inference engine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Daili

    Increasing societal demand for automation has led to considerable efforts to control large-scale complex systems, especially in the area of autonomous intelligent control methods. The control system of a large-scale complex system needs to satisfy four system level requirements: robustness, flexibility, reusability, and scalability. Corresponding to the four system level requirements, there arise four major challenges. First, it is difficult to get accurate and complete information. Second, the system may be physically highly distributed. Third, the system evolves very quickly. Fourth, emergent global behaviors of the system can be caused by small disturbances at the component level. The Multi-Agent Based Control (MABC) method as an implementation of distributed intelligent control has been the focus of research since the 1970s, in an effort to solve the above-mentioned problems in controlling large-scale complex systems. However, to the author's best knowledge, all MABC systems for large-scale complex systems with significant uncertainties are problem-specific and thus difficult to extend to other domains or larger systems. This situation is partly due to the control architecture of multiple agents being determined by agent to agent coupling and interaction mechanisms. Therefore, the research objective of this dissertation is to develop a comprehensive, generalized framework for the control system design of general large-scale complex systems with significant uncertainties, with the focus on distributed control architecture design and distributed inference engine design. A Hybrid Multi-Agent Based Control (HyMABC) architecture is proposed by combining hierarchical control architecture and module control architecture with logical replication rings. First, it decomposes a complex system hierarchically; second, it combines the components in the same level as a module, and then designs common interfaces for all of the components in the same module; third, replications

  14. Bank Terminals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    In the photo, employees of the UAB Bank, Knoxville, Tennessee, are using Teller Transaction Terminals manufactured by SCI Systems, Inc., Huntsville, Alabama, an electronics firm which has worked on a number of space projects under contract with NASA. The terminals are part of an advanced, computerized financial transaction system that offers high efficiency in bank operations. The key to the system's efficiency is a "multiplexing" technique developed for NASA's Space Shuttle. Multiplexing is simultaneous transmission of large amounts of data over a single transmission link at very high rates of speed. In the banking application, a small multiplex "data bus" interconnects all the terminals and a central computer which stores information on clients' accounts. The data bus replaces the maze-of wiring that would be needed to connect each terminal separately and it affords greater speed in recording transactions. The SCI system offers banks real-time data management through constant updating of the central computer. For example, a check is immediately cancelled at the teller's terminal and the computer is simultaneously advised of the transaction; under other methods, the check would be cancelled and the transaction recorded at the close of business. Teller checkout at the end of the day, conventionally a time-consuming matter of processing paper, can be accomplished in minutes by calling up a summary of the day's transactions. SCI manufactures other types of terminals for use in the system, such as an administrative terminal that provides an immediate printout of a client's account, and another for printing and recording savings account deposits and withdrawals. SCI systems have been installed in several banks in Tennessee, Arizona, and Oregon and additional installations are scheduled this year.

  15. 12 CFR 619.9140 - Farm Credit bank(s).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Farm Credit bank(s). 619.9140 Section 619.9140 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM DEFINITIONS § 619.9140 Farm Credit bank(s). Except as otherwise defined, the term Farm Credit bank(s) includes Farm Credit...

  16. 12 CFR 619.9140 - Farm Credit bank(s).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Farm Credit bank(s). 619.9140 Section 619.9140 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM DEFINITIONS § 619.9140 Farm Credit bank(s). Except as otherwise defined, the term Farm Credit bank(s) includes Farm Credit...

  17. 12 CFR 619.9140 - Farm Credit bank(s).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Farm Credit bank(s). 619.9140 Section 619.9140 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM DEFINITIONS § 619.9140 Farm Credit bank(s). Except as otherwise defined, the term Farm Credit bank(s) includes Farm Credit...

  18. 12 CFR 619.9140 - Farm Credit bank(s).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Farm Credit bank(s). 619.9140 Section 619.9140 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM DEFINITIONS § 619.9140 Farm Credit bank(s). Except as otherwise defined, the term Farm Credit bank(s) includes Farm Credit...

  19. 12 CFR 619.9140 - Farm Credit bank(s).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Farm Credit bank(s). 619.9140 Section 619.9140 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM DEFINITIONS § 619.9140 Farm Credit bank(s). Except as otherwise defined, the term Farm Credit bank(s) includes Farm Credit...

  20. Permutations of Control: Cognitive Considerations for Agent-Based Learning Environments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baylor, Amy L.

    2004-01-01

    While there has been a significant amount of research on technical issues regarding the development of agent-based learning environments (e.g., see the special issue of Journal of "Interactive Learning Research," 10(3/4)), there is less information regarding cognitive foundations for these environments. The management of control is a prime issue…

  1. Agent-Based Learning Environments as a Research Tool for Investigating Teaching and Learning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baylor, Amy L.

    2002-01-01

    Discusses intelligent learning environments for computer-based learning, such as agent-based learning environments, and their advantages over human-based instruction. Considers the effects of multiple agents; agents and research design; the use of Multiple Intelligent Mentors Instructing Collaboratively (MIMIC) for instructional design for…

  2. Learning Natural Selection in 4th Grade with Multi-Agent-Based Computational Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dickes, Amanda Catherine; Sengupta, Pratim

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate how elementary school students develop multi-level explanations of population dynamics in a simple predator-prey ecosystem, through scaffolded interactions with a multi-agent-based computational model (MABM). The term "agent" in an MABM indicates individual computational objects or actors (e.g., cars), and these…

  3. Lapse of time effects on tax evasion in an agent-based econophysics model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seibold, Götz; Pickhardt, Michael

    2013-05-01

    We investigate an inhomogeneous Ising model in the context of tax evasion dynamics where different types of agents are parameterized via local temperatures and magnetic fields. In particular, we analyze the impact of lapse of time effects (i.e. backauditing) and endogenously determined penalty rates on tax compliance. Both features contribute to a microfoundation of agent-based econophysics models of tax evasion.

  4. Permutations of Control: Cognitive Considerations for Agent-Based Learning Environments.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baylor, Amy L.

    2001-01-01

    Discussion of intelligent agents and their use in computer learning environments focuses on cognitive considerations. Presents four dimension of control that should be considered in designing agent-based learning environments: learner control, from constructivist to instructivist; feedback; relationship of learner to agent; and learner confidence…

  5. Understanding Group/Party Affiliation Using Social Networks and Agent-Based Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Campbell, Kenyth

    2012-01-01

    The dynamics of group affiliation and group dispersion is a concept that is most often studied in order for political candidates to better understand the most efficient way to conduct their campaigns. While political campaigning in the United States is a very hot topic that most politicians analyze and study, the concept of group/party affiliation presents its own area of study that producers very interesting results. One tool for examining party affiliation on a large scale is agent-based modeling (ABM), a paradigm in the modeling and simulation (M&S) field perfectly suited for aggregating individual behaviors to observe large swaths of a population. For this study agent based modeling was used in order to look at a community of agents and determine what factors can affect the group/party affiliation patterns that are present. In the agent-based model that was used for this experiment many factors were present but two main factors were used to determine the results. The results of this study show that it is possible to use agent-based modeling to explore group/party affiliation and construct a model that can mimic real world events. More importantly, the model in the study allows for the results found in a smaller community to be translated into larger experiments to determine if the results will remain present on a much larger scale.

  6. An agent-based simulation of extirpation of Ceratitis capitata applied to invasions in California

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We describe and validate an Agent-Based Simulation(ABS) of invasive insects and use it to investigate the time to extirpation of Ceratitis capitata using data from seven outbreaks that occurred in California from 2008-2010. Results are compared with the length of intervention and quarantine imposed ...

  7. Developing an Argument Learning Environment Using Agent-Based ITS (ALES)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abbas, Safia; Sawamura, Hajime

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents an agent-based educational environment to teach argument analysis (ALES). The idea is based on the Argumentation Interchange Format Ontology (AIF)using "Walton Theory". ALES uses different mining techniques to manage a highly structured arguments repertoire. This repertoire was designed, developed and implemented by us. Our aim…

  8. Ensuring Congruency in Multiscale Modeling: Towards Linking Agent Based and Continuum Biomechanical Models of Arterial Adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Hayenga, Heather N.; Thorne, Bryan C.; Peirce, Shayn M.; Humphrey, Jay D.

    2011-01-01

    There is a need to develop multiscale models of vascular adaptations to understand tissue level manifestations of cellular level mechanisms. Continuum based biomechanical models are well suited for relating blood pressures and flows to stress-mediated changes in geometry and properties, but less so for describing underlying mechanobiological processes. Discrete stochastic agent based models are well suited for representing biological processes at a cellular level, but not for describing tissue level mechanical changes. We present here a conceptually new approach to facilitate the coupling of continuum and agent based models. Because of ubiquitous limitations in both the tissue- and cell-level data from which one derives constitutive relations for continuum models and rule-sets for agent based models, we suggest that model verification should enforce congruency across scales. That is, multiscale model parameters initially determined from data sets representing different scales should be refined, when possible, to ensure that common outputs are consistent. Potential advantages of this approach are illustrated by comparing simulated aortic responses to a sustained increase in blood pressure predicted by continuum and agent based models both before and after instituting a genetic algorithm to refine 16 objectively bounded model parameters. We show that congruency-based parameter refinement not only yielded increased consistency across scales, it also yielded predictions that are closer to in vivo observations. PMID:21809144

  9. The Impact of a Peer-Learning Agent Based on Pair Programming in a Programming Course

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Han, Keun-Woo; Lee, EunKyoung; Lee, YoungJun

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyzes the educational effects of a peer-learning agent based on pair programming in programming courses. A peer-learning agent system was developed to facilitate the learning of a programming language through the use of pair programming strategies. This system is based on the role of a peer-learning agent from pedagogical and…

  10. High performance computing for three-dimensional agent-based molecular models.

    PubMed

    Pérez-Rodríguez, G; Pérez-Pérez, M; Fdez-Riverola, F; Lourenço, A

    2016-07-01

    Agent-based simulations are increasingly popular in exploring and understanding cellular systems, but the natural complexity of these systems and the desire to grasp different modelling levels demand cost-effective simulation strategies and tools. In this context, the present paper introduces novel sequential and distributed approaches for the three-dimensional agent-based simulation of individual molecules in cellular events. These approaches are able to describe the dimensions and position of the molecules with high accuracy and thus, study the critical effect of spatial distribution on cellular events. Moreover, two of the approaches allow multi-thread high performance simulations, distributing the three-dimensional model in a platform independent and computationally efficient way. Evaluation addressed the reproduction of molecular scenarios and different scalability aspects of agent creation and agent interaction. The three approaches simulate common biophysical and biochemical laws faithfully. The distributed approaches show improved performance when dealing with large agent populations while the sequential approach is better suited for small to medium size agent populations. Overall, the main new contribution of the approaches is the ability to simulate three-dimensional agent-based models at the molecular level with reduced implementation effort and moderate-level computational capacity. Since these approaches have a generic design, they have the major potential of being used in any event-driven agent-based tool. PMID:27372059

  11. Using Agent-Based Technologies to Enhance Learning in Educational Games

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tumenayu, Ogar Ofut; Shabalina, Olga; Kamaev, Valeriy; Davtyan, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    Recent research has shown that educational games positively motivate learning. However, there is a little evidence that they can trigger learning to a large extent if the game-play is supported by additional activities. We aim to support educational games development with an Agent-Based Technology (ABT) by using intelligent pedagogical agents that…

  12. Numerical Problems and Agent-Based Models for a Mass Transfer Course

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murthi, Manohar; Shea, Lonnie D.; Snurr, Randall Q.

    2009-01-01

    Problems requiring numerical solutions of differential equations or the use of agent-based modeling are presented for use in a course on mass transfer. These problems were solved using the popular technical computing language MATLABTM. Students were introduced to MATLAB via a problem with an analytical solution. A more complex problem to which no…

  13. Synthesized Population Databases: A US Geospatial Database for Agent-Based Models

    PubMed Central

    Wheaton, William D.; Cajka, James C.; Chasteen, Bernadette M.; Wagener, Diane K.; Cooley, Philip C.; Ganapathi, Laxminarayana; Roberts, Douglas J.; Allpress, Justine L.

    2010-01-01

    Agent-based models simulate large-scale social systems. They assign behaviors and activities to “agents” (individuals) within the population being modeled and then allow the agents to interact with the environment and each other in complex simulations. Agent-based models are frequently used to simulate infectious disease outbreaks, among other uses. RTI used and extended an iterative proportional fitting method to generate a synthesized, geospatially explicit, human agent database that represents the US population in the 50 states and the District of Columbia in the year 2000. Each agent is assigned to a household; other agents make up the household occupants. For this database, RTI developed the methods for generating synthesized households and personsassigning agents to schools and workplaces so that complex interactions among agents as they go about their daily activities can be taken into accountgenerating synthesized human agents who occupy group quarters (military bases, college dormitories, prisons, nursing homes).In this report, we describe both the methods used to generate the synthesized population database and the final data structure and data content of the database. This information will provide researchers with the information they need to use the database in developing agent-based models. Portions of the synthesized agent database are available to any user upon request. RTI will extract a portion (a county, region, or state) of the database for users who wish to use this database in their own agent-based models. PMID:20505787

  14. Comparing stochastic differential equations and agent-based modelling and simulation for early-stage cancer.

    PubMed

    Figueredo, Grazziela P; Siebers, Peer-Olaf; Owen, Markus R; Reps, Jenna; Aickelin, Uwe

    2014-01-01

    There is great potential to be explored regarding the use of agent-based modelling and simulation as an alternative paradigm to investigate early-stage cancer interactions with the immune system. It does not suffer from some limitations of ordinary differential equation models, such as the lack of stochasticity, representation of individual behaviours rather than aggregates and individual memory. In this paper we investigate the potential contribution of agent-based modelling and simulation when contrasted with stochastic versions of ODE models using early-stage cancer examples. We seek answers to the following questions: (1) Does this new stochastic formulation produce similar results to the agent-based version? (2) Can these methods be used interchangeably? (3) Do agent-based models outcomes reveal any benefit when compared to the Gillespie results? To answer these research questions we investigate three well-established mathematical models describing interactions between tumour cells and immune elements. These case studies were re-conceptualised under an agent-based perspective and also converted to the Gillespie algorithm formulation. Our interest in this work, therefore, is to establish a methodological discussion regarding the usability of different simulation approaches, rather than provide further biological insights into the investigated case studies. Our results show that it is possible to obtain equivalent models that implement the same mechanisms; however, the incapacity of the Gillespie algorithm to retain individual memory of past events affects the similarity of some results. Furthermore, the emergent behaviour of ABMS produces extra patters of behaviour in the system, which was not obtained by the Gillespie algorithm. PMID:24752131

  15. Efficacy and Safety of Novel Agent-Based Therapies for Multiple Myeloma: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xiaoxue; Li, Yan; Yan, Xiaojing

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed at comparing bortezomib, thalidomide, and lenalidomide in patients with multiple myeloma (MM) for safety and efficacy using meta-analysis. This meta-analysis identified 17 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) including 6742 patients. These RCTs were separated according to the different agent-based regimens and to autologous stem-cell transplantation (ASCT). Complete response (CR), progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and adverse events (AE) were combined. The total weighted risk ratio (RR) of CR was 3.29 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 2.22–4.88] (P < 0.0001) for the novel agent-based regimens. These novel agent-based regimens showed greater benefit in terms of PFS of all subgroups irrespective of whether the patient received ASCT or not. The hazard ratio (HR) for PFS was 0.64 [95% CI: 0.60–0.69] (P < 0.00001). Improvements of OS could be found only in the bortezomib- and thalidomide-based regimens without ASCT. The pooled HRs were 0.74 [95% CI: 0.65–0.86] (P < 0.0001) and 0.80 [95% CI: 0.70–0.90] (P = 0.0004), respectively. Several AEs were shown more frequently in the novel agent-based regimens compared with controls such as hematologic events (neutropenia, anemia, and thrombocytopenia), gastrointestinal infection, peripheral neuropathy, thrombosis, and embolism events. In conclusion, in spite of the AEs, novel agent-based regimens are safe and effective for the treatment of MM. PMID:26949704

  16. Simulating Retail Banking for Banking Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Supramaniam, Mahadevan; Shanmugam, Bala

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the implementation flow and development of retail bank management simulation based training system which could provide a comprehensive knowledge about the operations and management of banks for the banking students. The prototype of a Retail banking simulation based training system was developed based on…

  17. An Agent-Based Model for Analyzing Control Policies and the Dynamic Service-Time Performance of a Capacity-Constrained Air Traffic Management Facility

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Conway, Sheila R.

    2006-01-01

    Simple agent-based models may be useful for investigating air traffic control strategies as a precursory screening for more costly, higher fidelity simulation. Of concern is the ability of the models to capture the essence of the system and provide insight into system behavior in a timely manner and without breaking the bank. The method is put to the test with the development of a model to address situations where capacity is overburdened and potential for propagation of the resultant delay though later flights is possible via flight dependencies. The resultant model includes primitive representations of principal air traffic system attributes, namely system capacity, demand, airline schedules and strategy, and aircraft capability. It affords a venue to explore their interdependence in a time-dependent, dynamic system simulation. The scope of the research question and the carefully-chosen modeling fidelity did allow for the development of an agent-based model in short order. The model predicted non-linear behavior given certain initial conditions and system control strategies. Additionally, a combination of the model and dimensionless techniques borrowed from fluid systems was demonstrated that can predict the system s dynamic behavior across a wide range of parametric settings.

  18. Evaluating the Impacts of an Agricultural Water Market in the Guadalupe River Basin, Texas: An Agent-based Modeling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Du, E.; Cai, X.; Minsker, B. S.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture comprises about 80 percent of the total water consumption in the US. Under conditions of water shortage and fully committed water rights, market-based water allocations could be promising instruments for agricultural water redistribution from marginally profitable areas to more profitable ones. Previous studies on water market have mainly focused on theoretical or statistical analysis. However, how water users' heterogeneous physical attributes and decision rules about water use and water right trading will affect water market efficiency has been less addressed. In this study, we developed an agent-based model to evaluate the benefits of an agricultural water market in the Guadalupe River Basin during drought events. Agricultural agents with different attributes (i.e., soil type for crops, annual water diversion permit and precipitation) are defined to simulate the dynamic feedback between water availability, irrigation demand and water trading activity. Diversified crop irrigation rules and water bidding rules are tested in terms of crop yield, agricultural profit, and water-use efficiency. The model was coupled with a real-time hydrologic model and run under different water scarcity scenarios. Preliminary results indicate that an agricultural water market is capable of increasing crop yield, agricultural profit, and water-use efficiency. This capability is more significant under moderate drought scenarios than in mild and severe drought scenarios. The water market mechanism also increases agricultural resilience to climate uncertainty by reducing crop yield variance in drought events. The challenges of implementing an agricultural water market under climate uncertainty are also discussed.

  19. Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: Agent-based versus structured metapopulation models

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background In recent years large-scale computational models for the realistic simulation of epidemic outbreaks have been used with increased frequency. Methodologies adapt to the scale of interest and range from very detailed agent-based models to spatially-structured metapopulation models. One major issue thus concerns to what extent the geotemporal spreading pattern found by different modeling approaches may differ and depend on the different approximations and assumptions used. Methods We provide for the first time a side-by-side comparison of the results obtained with a stochastic agent-based model and a structured metapopulation stochastic model for the progression of a baseline pandemic event in Italy, a large and geographically heterogeneous European country. The agent-based model is based on the explicit representation of the Italian population through highly detailed data on the socio-demographic structure. The metapopulation simulations use the GLobal Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model, based on high-resolution census data worldwide, and integrating airline travel flow data with short-range human mobility patterns at the global scale. The model also considers age structure data for Italy. GLEaM and the agent-based models are synchronized in their initial conditions by using the same disease parameterization, and by defining the same importation of infected cases from international travels. Results The results obtained show that both models provide epidemic patterns that are in very good agreement at the granularity levels accessible by both approaches, with differences in peak timing on the order of a few days. The relative difference of the epidemic size depends on the basic reproductive ratio, R0, and on the fact that the metapopulation model consistently yields a larger incidence than the agent-based model, as expected due to the differences in the structure in the intra-population contact pattern of the approaches. The age breakdown analysis shows

  20. Who Runs Our Universities?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Watson, David

    2012-01-01

    Inside the academy there is a cultural perspective that it should run itself, in the sense that "business as usual" should be done with no one's hands obviously on the levers. This theory reaches its high point in the "self-government" of Oxford and Cambridge colleges. In this article, the author explores the question, "who runs our…

  1. Modeling the transmission of community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus: a dynamic agent-based simulation

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) has been a deadly pathogen in healthcare settings since the 1960s, but MRSA epidemiology changed since 1990 with new genetically distinct strain types circulating among previously healthy people outside healthcare settings. Community-associated (CA) MRSA strains primarily cause skin and soft tissue infections, but may also cause life-threatening invasive infections. First seen in Australia and the U.S., it is a growing problem around the world. The U.S. has had the most widespread CA-MRSA epidemic, with strain type USA300 causing the great majority of infections. Individuals with either asymptomatic colonization or infection may transmit CA-MRSA to others, largely by skin-to-skin contact. Control measures have focused on hospital transmission. Limited public health education has focused on care for skin infections. Methods We developed a fine-grained agent-based model for Chicago to identify where to target interventions to reduce CA-MRSA transmission. An agent-based model allows us to represent heterogeneity in population behavior, locations and contact patterns that are highly relevant for CA-MRSA transmission and control. Drawing on nationally representative survey data, the model represents variation in sociodemographics, locations, behaviors, and physical contact patterns. Transmission probabilities are based on a comprehensive literature review. Results Over multiple 10-year runs with one-hour ticks, our model generates temporal and geographic trends in CA-MRSA incidence similar to Chicago from 2001 to 2010. On average, a majority of transmission events occurred in households, and colonized rather than infected agents were the source of the great majority (over 95%) of transmission events. The key findings are that infected people are not the primary source of spread. Rather, the far greater number of colonized individuals must be targeted to reduce transmission. Conclusions Our findings suggest

  2. Construction of a microscopic agent-based model for firms' dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iyetomi, Hiroshi; Aoyama, Hideaki; Fujiwara, Yoshi; Ikeda, Yuichi; Kaizoji, Taisei; Soma, Wataru

    2005-07-01

    A workable microscopic model for firms' dynamics has been constructed. The model consists of firm agents and a bank agent dynamics of which are described by balance sheets. The size distribution of firms and the temporal evolution of the bank show critical dependence on whether or not firms use perfect information on their financial conditions to draw up next production plans.

  3. Integrated Agent-Based and Production Cost Modeling Framework for Renewable Energy Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Gallo, Giulia

    2015-10-07

    The agent-based framework for renewable energy studies (ARES) is an integrated approach that adds an agent-based model of industry actors to PLEXOS and combines the strengths of the two to overcome their individual shortcomings. It can examine existing and novel wholesale electricity markets under high penetrations of renewables. ARES is demonstrated by studying how increasing levels of wind will impact the operations and the exercise of market power of generation companies that exploit an economic withholding strategy. The analysis is carried out on a test system that represents the Electric Reliability Council of Texas energy-only market in the year 2020. The results more realistically reproduce the operations of an energy market under different and increasing penetrations of wind, and ARES can be extended to address pressing issues in current and future wholesale electricity markets.

  4. An Agent-Based Model of New Venture Creation: Conceptual Design for Simulating Entrepreneurship

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Provance, Mike; Collins, Andrew; Carayannis, Elias

    2012-01-01

    There is a growing debate over the means by which regions can foster the growth of entrepreneurial activity in order to stimulate recovery and growth of their economies. On one side, agglomeration theory suggests the regions grow because of strong clusters that foster knowledge spillover locally; on the other side, the entrepreneurial action camp argues that innovative business models are generated by entrepreneurs with unique market perspectives who draw on knowledge from more distant domains. We will show you the design for a novel agent-based model of new venture creation that will demonstrate the relationship between agglomeration and action. The primary focus of this model is information exchange as the medium for these agent interactions. Our modeling and simulation study proposes to reveal interesting relationships in these perspectives, offer a foundation on which these disparate theories from economics and sociology can find common ground, and expand the use of agent-based modeling into entrepreneurship research.

  5. Invited commentary: Agent-based models for causal inference—reweighting data and theory in epidemiology.

    PubMed

    Hernán, Miguel A

    2015-01-15

    The relative weights of empirical facts (data) and assumptions (theory) in causal inference vary across disciplines. Typically, disciplines that ask more complex questions tend to better tolerate a greater role of theory and modeling in causal inference. As epidemiologists move toward increasingly complex questions, Marshall and Galea (Am J Epidemiol. 2015;181(2):92-99) support a reweighting of data and theory in epidemiologic research via the use of agent-based modeling. The parametric g-formula can be viewed as an intermediate step between traditional epidemiologic methods and agent-based modeling and therefore is a method that can ease the transition toward epidemiologic methods that rely heavily on modeling. PMID:25480820

  6. Semantic Extension of Agent-Based Control: The Packing Cell Case Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vrba, Pavel; Radakovič, Miloslav; Obitko, Marek; Mařík, Vladimír

    The paper reports on the latest R&D activities in the field of agent-based manufacturing control systems. It is documented that this area becomes strongly influenced by the advancements of semantic technologies like the Web Ontology Language. The application of ontologies provides the agents with much more effective means for handling, exchanging and reasoning about the knowledge. The ontology dedicated for semantic description of orders, production processes and material handling tasks in discrete manufacturing domain has been developed. In addition, the framework for integration of this ontology in distributed, agent-based control solutions is given. The Manufacturing Agent Simulation Tool (MAST) is used as a base for pilot implementation of the ontology-powered multiagent control system; the packing cell environment is selected as a case study.

  7. Preclinical animal acute toxicity studies of new developed MRI contrast agent based on gadolinium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nam, I. F.; Zhuk, V. V.

    2015-04-01

    Acute toxicity test of new developed MRI contrast agent based on disodium salt of gadopentetic acid complex were carried out on Mus musculus and Sprague Dawley rats according to guidelines of preclinical studies [1]. Groups of six animals each were selected for experiment. Death and clinical symptoms of animals were recorded during 14 days. As a result the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) for female mice is 2.8 mM/kg of body weight, male mice - 1.4 mM/kg, female rats - 2.8 mM/kg, male rats - 5.6 mM/kg of body weight. No Observed Adverse Effect Dose (NOAEL) for female mice is 1.4 mM/kg, male mice - 0.7 mM/kg, male and female rats - 0.7 mM/kg. According to experimental data new developed MRI contrast agent based on Gd-DTPA complex is low-toxic.

  8. Fluctuation complexity of agent-based financial time series model by stochastic Potts system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Weijia; Wang, Jun

    2015-03-01

    Financial market is a complex evolved dynamic system with high volatilities and noises, and the modeling and analyzing of financial time series are regarded as the rather challenging tasks in financial research. In this work, by applying the Potts dynamic system, a random agent-based financial time series model is developed in an attempt to uncover the empirical laws in finance, where the Potts model is introduced to imitate the trading interactions among the investing agents. Based on the computer simulation in conjunction with the statistical analysis and the nonlinear analysis, we present numerical research to investigate the fluctuation behaviors of the proposed time series model. Furthermore, in order to get a robust conclusion, we consider the daily returns of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, and the comparison analysis of return behaviors between the simulation data and the actual data is exhibited.

  9. Agent-Based vs. Equation-based Epidemiological Models:A Model Selection Case Study

    SciTech Connect

    Sukumar, Sreenivas R; Nutaro, James J

    2012-01-01

    This paper is motivated by the need to design model validation strategies for epidemiological disease-spread models. We consider both agent-based and equation-based models of pandemic disease spread and study the nuances and complexities one has to consider from the perspective of model validation. For this purpose, we instantiate an equation based model and an agent based model of the 1918 Spanish flu and we leverage data published in the literature for our case- study. We present our observations from the perspective of each implementation and discuss the application of model-selection criteria to compare the risk in choosing one modeling paradigm to another. We conclude with a discussion of our experience and document future ideas for a model validation framework.

  10. Nonlinear multi-analysis of agent-based financial market dynamics by epidemic system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Yunfan; Wang, Jun; Niu, Hongli

    2015-10-01

    Based on the epidemic dynamical system, we construct a new agent-based financial time series model. In order to check and testify its rationality, we compare the statistical properties of the time series model with the real stock market indices, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index. For analyzing the statistical properties, we combine the multi-parameter analysis with the tail distribution analysis, the modified rescaled range analysis, and the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. For a better perspective, the three-dimensional diagrams are used to present the analysis results. The empirical research in this paper indicates that the long-range dependence property and the multifractal phenomenon exist in the real returns and the proposed model. Therefore, the new agent-based financial model can recurrence some important features of real stock markets.

  11. Nonlinear multi-analysis of agent-based financial market dynamics by epidemic system.

    PubMed

    Lu, Yunfan; Wang, Jun; Niu, Hongli

    2015-10-01

    Based on the epidemic dynamical system, we construct a new agent-based financial time series model. In order to check and testify its rationality, we compare the statistical properties of the time series model with the real stock market indices, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index. For analyzing the statistical properties, we combine the multi-parameter analysis with the tail distribution analysis, the modified rescaled range analysis, and the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. For a better perspective, the three-dimensional diagrams are used to present the analysis results. The empirical research in this paper indicates that the long-range dependence property and the multifractal phenomenon exist in the real returns and the proposed model. Therefore, the new agent-based financial model can recurrence some important features of real stock markets. PMID:26520069

  12. Tutorial on agent-based modeling and simulation. Part 2 : how to model with agents.

    SciTech Connect

    Macal, C. M.; North, M. J.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2006-01-01

    Agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) is a new approach to modeling systems comprised of interacting autonomous agents. ABMS promises to have far-reaching effects on the way that businesses use computers to support decision-making and researchers use electronic laboratories to do research. Some have gone so far as to contend that ABMS is a new way of doing science. Computational advances make possible a growing number of agent-based applications across many fields. Applications range from modeling agent behavior in the stock market and supply chains, to predicting the spread of epidemics and the threat of bio-warfare, from modeling the growth and decline of ancient civilizations to modeling the complexities of the human immune system, and many more. This tutorial describes the foundations of ABMS, identifies ABMS toolkits and development methods illustrated through a supply chain example, and provides thoughts on the appropriate contexts for ABMS versus conventional modeling techniques.

  13. Disaggregation and Refinement of System Dynamics Models via Agent-based Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Nutaro, James J; Ozmen, Ozgur; Schryver, Jack C

    2014-01-01

    System dynamics models are usually used to investigate aggregate level behavior, but these models can be decomposed into agents that have more realistic individual behaviors. Here we develop a simple model of the STEM workforce to illuminate the impacts that arise from the disaggregation and refinement of system dynamics models via agent-based modeling. Particularly, alteration of Poisson assumptions, adding heterogeneity to decision-making processes of agents, and discrete-time formulation are investigated and their impacts are illustrated. The goal is to demonstrate both the promise and danger of agent-based modeling in the context of a relatively simple model and to delineate the importance of modeling decisions that are often overlooked.

  14. Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: agent based versus structured metapopulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonçalves, Bruno; Ajelli, Marco; Balcan, Duygu; Colizza, Vittoria; Hu, Hao; Ramasco, José; Merler, Stefano; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2010-03-01

    We provide for the first time a side by side comparison of the results obtained with a stochastic agent based model and a structured metapopulation stochastic model for the evolution of a baseline pandemic event in Italy. The Agent Based model is based on the explicit representation of the Italian population through highly detailed data on the socio-demographic structure. The metapopulation simulations use the GLobal Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model, based on high resolution census data worldwide, and integrating airline travel flow data with short range human mobility patterns at the global scale. Both models provide epidemic patterns that are in very good agreement at the granularity levels accessible by both approaches, with differences in peak timing of the order of few days. The age breakdown analysis shows that similar attack rates are obtained for the younger age classes.

  15. Architectural considerations for agent-based national scale policy models : LDRD final report.

    SciTech Connect

    Backus, George A.; Strip, David R.

    2007-09-01

    The need to anticipate the consequences of policy decisions becomes ever more important as the magnitude of the potential consequences grows. The multiplicity of connections between the components of society and the economy makes intuitive assessments extremely unreliable. Agent-based modeling has the potential to be a powerful tool in modeling policy impacts. The direct mapping between agents and elements of society and the economy simplify the mapping of real world functions into the world of computation assessment. Our modeling initiative is motivated by the desire to facilitate informed public debate on alternative policies for how we, as a nation, provide healthcare to our population. We explore the implications of this motivation on the design and implementation of a model. We discuss the choice of an agent-based modeling approach and contrast it to micro-simulation and systems dynamics approaches.

  16. 10. DETAIL OF RUBBLE MASONRY ABUTMENT ON THE SOUTH BANK ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    10. DETAIL OF RUBBLE MASONRY ABUTMENT ON THE SOUTH BANK AND DISINTEGRATING CONCRETE FACING; VIEW FROM WEST. - Mitchell's Mill Bridge, Spanning Winter's Run on Carrs Mill Road, west of Bel Air, Bel Air, Harford County, MD

  17. Exploring complex dynamics in multi agent-based intelligent systems: Theoretical and experimental approaches using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandridis, Konstantinos T.

    This dissertation adopts a holistic and detailed approach to modeling spatially explicit agent-based artificial intelligent systems, using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model. The research questions that addresses stem from the need to understand and analyze the real-world patterns and dynamics of land use change from a coupled human-environmental systems perspective. Describes the systemic, mathematical, statistical, socio-economic and spatial dynamics of the MABEL modeling framework, and provides a wide array of cross-disciplinary modeling applications within the research, decision-making and policy domains. Establishes the symbolic properties of the MABEL model as a Markov decision process, analyzes the decision-theoretic utility and optimization attributes of agents towards comprising statistically and spatially optimal policies and actions, and explores the probabilogic character of the agents' decision-making and inference mechanisms via the use of Bayesian belief and decision networks. Develops and describes a Monte Carlo methodology for experimental replications of agent's decisions regarding complex spatial parcel acquisition and learning. Recognizes the gap on spatially-explicit accuracy assessment techniques for complex spatial models, and proposes an ensemble of statistical tools designed to address this problem. Advanced information assessment techniques such as the Receiver-Operator Characteristic curve, the impurity entropy and Gini functions, and the Bayesian classification functions are proposed. The theoretical foundation for modular Bayesian inference in spatially-explicit multi-agent artificial intelligent systems, and the ensembles of cognitive and scenario assessment modular tools build for the MABEL model are provided. Emphasizes the modularity and robustness as valuable qualitative modeling attributes, and examines the role of robust intelligent modeling as a tool for improving policy-decisions related to land

  18. Proceedings 3rd NASA/IEEE Workshop on Formal Approaches to Agent-Based Systems (FAABS-III)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hinchey, Michael (Editor); Rash, James (Editor); Truszkowski, Walt (Editor); Rouff, Christopher (Editor)

    2004-01-01

    These preceedings contain 18 papers and 4 poster presentation, covering topics such as: multi-agent systems, agent-based control, formalism, norms, as well as physical and biological models of agent-based systems. Some applications presented in the proceedings include systems analysis, software engineering, computer networks and robot control.

  19. Pain expressiveness and altruistic behavior: an exploration using agent-based modeling.

    PubMed

    de C Williams, Amanda C; Gallagher, Elizabeth; Fidalgo, Antonio R; Bentley, Peter J

    2016-03-01

    Predictions which invoke evolutionary mechanisms are hard to test. Agent-based modeling in artificial life offers a way to simulate behaviors and interactions in specific physical or social environments over many generations. The outcomes have implications for understanding adaptive value of behaviors in context. Pain-related behavior in animals is communicated to other animals that might protect or help, or might exploit or predate. An agent-based model simulated the effects of displaying or not displaying pain (expresser/nonexpresser strategies) when injured and of helping, ignoring, or exploiting another in pain (altruistic/nonaltruistic/selfish strategies). Agents modeled in MATLAB interacted at random while foraging (gaining energy); random injury interrupted foraging for a fixed time unless help from an altruistic agent, who paid an energy cost, speeded recovery. Environmental and social conditions also varied, and each model ran for 10,000 iterations. Findings were meaningful in that, in general, contingencies that evident from experimental work with a variety of mammals, over a few interactions, were replicated in the agent-based model after selection pressure over many generations. More energy-demanding expression of pain reduced its frequency in successive generations, and increasing injury frequency resulted in fewer expressers and altruists. Allowing exploitation of injured agents decreased expression of pain to near zero, but altruists remained. Decreasing costs or increasing benefits of helping hardly changed its frequency, whereas increasing interaction rate between injured agents and helpers diminished the benefits to both. Agent-based modeling allows simulation of complex behaviors and environmental pressures over evolutionary time. PMID:26655734

  20. Agent-based model for rural-urban migration: A dynamic consideration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Ning; Ma, Hai-Ying; Khan, M. Junaid

    2015-10-01

    This paper develops a dynamic agent-based model for rural-urban migration, based on the previous relevant works. The model conforms to the typical dynamic linear multi-agent systems model concerned extensively in systems science, in which the communication network is formulated as a digraph. Simulations reveal that consensus of certain variable could be harmful to the overall stability and should be avoided.

  1. Graceful Failure and Societal Resilience Analysis Via Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schopf, P. S.; Cioffi-Revilla, C.; Rogers, J. D.; Bassett, J.; Hailegiorgis, A. B.

    2014-12-01

    Agent-based social modeling is opening up new methodologies for the study of societal response to weather and climate hazards, and providing measures of resiliency that can be studied in many contexts, particularly in coupled human and natural-technological systems (CHANTS). Since CHANTS are complex adaptive systems, societal resiliency may or may not occur, depending on dynamics that lack closed form solutions. Agent-based modeling has been shown to provide a viable theoretical and methodological approach for analyzing and understanding disasters and societal resiliency in CHANTS. Our approach advances the science of societal resilience through computational modeling and simulation methods that complement earlier statistical and mathematical approaches. We present three case studies of social dynamics modeling that demonstrate the use of these agent based models. In Central Asia, we exmaine mutltiple ensemble simulations with varying climate statistics to see how droughts and zuds affect populations, transmission of wealth across generations, and the overall structure of the social system. In Eastern Africa, we explore how successive episodes of drought events affect the adaptive capacity of rural households. Human displacement, mainly, rural to urban migration, and livelihood transition particularly from pastoral to farming are observed as rural households interacting dynamically with the biophysical environment and continually adjust their behavior to accommodate changes in climate. In the far north case we demonstrate one of the first successful attempts to model the complete climate-permafrost-infrastructure-societal interaction network as a complex adaptive system/CHANTS implemented as a ``federated'' agent-based model using evolutionary computation. Analysis of population changes resulting from extreme weather across these and other cases provides evidence for the emergence of new steady states and shifting patterns of resilience.

  2. Integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haer, Toon; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    Between 1998 and 2009, Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods, causing 1126 deaths, displacing around half a million people. In this period, floods caused at least 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard faced in Europe. In many low-lying areas, the main strategy to cope with floods is to reduce the risk of the hazard through flood defence structures, like dikes and levees. However, it is suggested that part of the responsibility for flood protection needs to shift to households and businesses in areas at risk, and that governments and insurers can effectively stimulate the implementation of individual protective measures. However, adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction and the interaction between the government, insurers, and individuals has hardly been studied in large-scale flood risk assessments. In this study, an European Agent-Based Model is developed including agent representatives for the administrative stakeholders of European Member states, insurers and reinsurers markets, and individuals following complex behaviour models. The Agent-Based Modelling approach allows for an in-depth analysis of the interaction between heterogeneous autonomous agents and the resulting (non-)adaptive behaviour. Existing flood damage models are part of the European Agent-Based Model to allow for a dynamic response of both the agents and the environment to changing flood risk and protective efforts. By following an Agent-Based Modelling approach this study is a first contribution to overcome the limitations of traditional large-scale flood risk models in which the influence of individual adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction is often lacking.

  3. Pain expressiveness and altruistic behavior: an exploration using agent-based modeling

    PubMed Central

    de C Williams, Amanda C.; Gallagher, Elizabeth; Fidalgo, Antonio R.; Bentley, Peter J.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Predictions which invoke evolutionary mechanisms are hard to test. Agent-based modeling in artificial life offers a way to simulate behaviors and interactions in specific physical or social environments over many generations. The outcomes have implications for understanding adaptive value of behaviors in context. Pain-related behavior in animals is communicated to other animals that might protect or help, or might exploit or predate. An agent-based model simulated the effects of displaying or not displaying pain (expresser/nonexpresser strategies) when injured and of helping, ignoring, or exploiting another in pain (altruistic/nonaltruistic/selfish strategies). Agents modeled in MATLAB interacted at random while foraging (gaining energy); random injury interrupted foraging for a fixed time unless help from an altruistic agent, who paid an energy cost, speeded recovery. Environmental and social conditions also varied, and each model ran for 10,000 iterations. Findings were meaningful in that, in general, contingencies that evident from experimental work with a variety of mammals, over a few interactions, were replicated in the agent-based model after selection pressure over many generations. More energy-demanding expression of pain reduced its frequency in successive generations, and increasing injury frequency resulted in fewer expressers and altruists. Allowing exploitation of injured agents decreased expression of pain to near zero, but altruists remained. Decreasing costs or increasing benefits of helping hardly changed its frequency, whereas increasing interaction rate between injured agents and helpers diminished the benefits to both. Agent-based modeling allows simulation of complex behaviors and environmental pressures over evolutionary time. PMID:26655734

  4. Agent Based Study of Surprise Attacks:. Roles of Surveillance, Prompt Reaction and Intelligence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shanahan, Linda; Sen, Surajit

    Defending a confined territory from a surprise attack is seldom possible. We use molecular dynamics and statistical physics inspired agent-based simulations to explore the evolution and outcome of such attacks. The study suggests robust emergent behavior, which emphasizes the importance of accurate surveillance, automated and powerful attack response, building layout, and sheds light on the role of communication restrictions in defending such territories.

  5. Deterministic Agent-Based Path Optimization by Mimicking the Spreading of Ripples.

    PubMed

    Hu, Xiao-Bing; Wang, Ming; Leeson, Mark S; Di Paolo, Ezequiel A; Liu, Hao

    2016-01-01

    Inspirations from nature have contributed fundamentally to the development of evolutionary computation. Learning from the natural ripple-spreading phenomenon, this article proposes a novel ripple-spreading algorithm (RSA) for the path optimization problem (POP). In nature, a ripple spreads at a constant speed in all directions, and the node closest to the source is the first to be reached. This very simple principle forms the foundation of the proposed RSA. In contrast to most deterministic top-down centralized path optimization methods, such as Dijkstra's algorithm, the RSA is a bottom-up decentralized agent-based simulation model. Moreover, it is distinguished from other agent-based algorithms, such as genetic algorithms and ant colony optimization, by being a deterministic method that can always guarantee the global optimal solution with very good scalability. Here, the RSA is specifically applied to four different POPs. The comparative simulation results illustrate the advantages of the RSA in terms of effectiveness and efficiency. Thanks to the agent-based and deterministic features, the RSA opens new opportunities to attack some problems, such as calculating the exact complete Pareto front in multiobjective optimization and determining the kth shortest project time in project management, which are very difficult, if not impossible, for existing methods to resolve. The ripple-spreading optimization principle and the new distinguishing features and capacities of the RSA enrich the theoretical foundations of evolutionary computation. PMID:26066805

  6. Using an agent-based model to simulate children’s active travel to school

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Despite the multiple advantages of active travel to school, only a small percentage of US children and adolescents walk or bicycle to school. Intervention studies are in a relatively early stage and evidence of their effectiveness over long periods is limited. The purpose of this study was to illustrate the utility of agent-based models in exploring how various policies may influence children’s active travel to school. Methods An agent-based model was developed to simulate children’s school travel behavior within a hypothetical city. The model was used to explore the plausible implications of policies targeting two established barriers to active school travel: long distance to school and traffic safety. The percent of children who walk to school was compared for various scenarios. Results To maximize the percent of children who walk to school the school locations should be evenly distributed over space and children should be assigned to the closest school. In the case of interventions to improve traffic safety, targeting a smaller area around the school with greater intensity may be more effective than targeting a larger area with less intensity. Conclusions Despite the challenges they present, agent based models are a useful complement to other analytical strategies in studying the plausible impact of various policies on active travel to school. PMID:23705953

  7. An Agent-Based Model of Signal Transduction in Bacterial Chemotaxis

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Jameson; Parker, Miles; Bourret, Robert B.; Giddings, Morgan C.

    2010-01-01

    We report the application of agent-based modeling to examine the signal transduction network and receptor arrays for chemotaxis in Escherichia coli, which are responsible for regulating swimming behavior in response to environmental stimuli. Agent-based modeling is a stochastic and bottom-up approach, where individual components of the modeled system are explicitly represented, and bulk properties emerge from their movement and interactions. We present the Chemoscape model: a collection of agents representing both fixed membrane-embedded and mobile cytoplasmic proteins, each governed by a set of rules representing knowledge or hypotheses about their function. When the agents were placed in a simulated cellular space and then allowed to move and interact stochastically, the model exhibited many properties similar to the biological system including adaptation, high signal gain, and wide dynamic range. We found the agent based modeling approach to be both powerful and intuitive for testing hypotheses about biological properties such as self-assembly, the non-linear dynamics that occur through cooperative protein interactions, and non-uniform distributions of proteins in the cell. We applied the model to explore the role of receptor type, geometry and cooperativity in the signal gain and dynamic range of the chemotactic response to environmental stimuli. The model provided substantial qualitative evidence that the dynamic range of chemotactic response can be traced to both the heterogeneity of receptor types present, and the modulation of their cooperativity by their methylation state. PMID:20485527

  8. Agent-based power sharing scheme for active hybrid power sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Zhenhua

    The active hybridization technique provides an effective approach to combining the best properties of a heterogeneous set of power sources to achieve higher energy density, power density and fuel efficiency. Active hybrid power sources can be used to power hybrid electric vehicles with selected combinations of internal combustion engines, fuel cells, batteries, and/or supercapacitors. They can be deployed in all-electric ships to build a distributed electric power system. They can also be used in a bulk power system to construct an autonomous distributed energy system. An important aspect in designing an active hybrid power source is to find a suitable control strategy that can manage the active power sharing and take advantage of the inherent scalability and robustness benefits of the hybrid system. This paper presents an agent-based power sharing scheme for active hybrid power sources. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed agent-based power sharing scheme, simulation studies are performed for a hybrid power source that can be used in a solar car as the main propulsion power module. Simulation results clearly indicate that the agent-based control framework is effective to coordinate the various energy sources and manage the power/voltage profiles.

  9. Agent-based simulation of building evacuation using a grid graph-based model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, L.; Lin, H.; Hu, M.; Che, W.

    2014-02-01

    Shifting from macroscope models to microscope models, the agent-based approach has been widely used to model crowd evacuation as more attentions are paid on individualized behaviour. Since indoor evacuation behaviour is closely related to spatial features of the building, effective representation of indoor space is essential for the simulation of building evacuation. The traditional cell-based representation has limitations in reflecting spatial structure and is not suitable for topology analysis. Aiming at incorporating powerful topology analysis functions of GIS to facilitate agent-based simulation of building evacuation, we used a grid graph-based model in this study to represent the indoor space. Such model allows us to establish an evacuation network at a micro level. Potential escape routes from each node thus could be analysed through GIS functions of network analysis considering both the spatial structure and route capacity. This would better support agent-based modelling of evacuees' behaviour including route choice and local movements. As a case study, we conducted a simulation of emergency evacuation from the second floor of an official building using Agent Analyst as the simulation platform. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method, as well as the potential of GIS in visualizing and analysing simulation results.

  10. Model reduction for agent-based social simulation: coarse-graining a civil violence model.

    PubMed

    Zou, Yu; Fonoberov, Vladimir A; Fonoberova, Maria; Mezic, Igor; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G

    2012-06-01

    Agent-based modeling (ABM) constitutes a powerful computational tool for the exploration of phenomena involving emergent dynamic behavior in the social sciences. This paper demonstrates a computer-assisted approach that bridges the significant gap between the single-agent microscopic level and the macroscopic (coarse-grained population) level, where fundamental questions must be rationally answered and policies guiding the emergent dynamics devised. Our approach will be illustrated through an agent-based model of civil violence. This spatiotemporally varying ABM incorporates interactions between a heterogeneous population of citizens [active (insurgent), inactive, or jailed] and a population of police officers. Detailed simulations exhibit an equilibrium punctuated by periods of social upheavals. We show how to effectively reduce the agent-based dynamics to a stochastic model with only two coarse-grained degrees of freedom: the number of jailed citizens and the number of active ones. The coarse-grained model captures the ABM dynamics while drastically reducing the computation time (by a factor of approximately 20). PMID:23005161

  11. Model reduction for agent-based social simulation: Coarse-graining a civil violence model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zou, Yu; Fonoberov, Vladimir A.; Fonoberova, Maria; Mezic, Igor; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.

    2012-06-01

    Agent-based modeling (ABM) constitutes a powerful computational tool for the exploration of phenomena involving emergent dynamic behavior in the social sciences. This paper demonstrates a computer-assisted approach that bridges the significant gap between the single-agent microscopic level and the macroscopic (coarse-grained population) level, where fundamental questions must be rationally answered and policies guiding the emergent dynamics devised. Our approach will be illustrated through an agent-based model of civil violence. This spatiotemporally varying ABM incorporates interactions between a heterogeneous population of citizens [active (insurgent), inactive, or jailed] and a population of police officers. Detailed simulations exhibit an equilibrium punctuated by periods of social upheavals. We show how to effectively reduce the agent-based dynamics to a stochastic model with only two coarse-grained degrees of freedom: the number of jailed citizens and the number of active ones. The coarse-grained model captures the ABM dynamics while drastically reducing the computation time (by a factor of approximately 20).

  12. Use of agent-based simulations to design and interpret HIV clinical trials.

    PubMed

    Cuadros, Diego F; Abu-Raddad, Laith J; Awad, Susanne F; García-Ramos, Gisela

    2014-07-01

    In this study, we illustrate the utility of an agent-based simulation to inform a trial design and how this supports outcome interpretation of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We developed agent-based Monte Carlo models to simulate existing landmark HIV RCTs, such as the Partners in Prevention HSV/HIV Transmission Study. We simulated a variation of this study using valacyclovir therapy as the intervention, and we used a male circumcision RCT based on the Rakai Male Circumcision Trial. Our results indicate that a small fraction (20%) of the simulated Partners in Prevention HSV/HIV Transmission Study realizations rejected the null hypothesis, which was no effect from the intervention. Our results also suggest that an RCT designed to evaluate the effectiveness of a more potent drug regimen for HSV-2 suppression (valacyclovir therapy) is more likely to identify the efficacy of the intervention. For the male circumcision RCT simulation, the greater biological effect of the male circumcision yielded a major fraction (81%) of RCT realizations' that rejects the null hypothesis, which was no effect from the intervention. Our study highlights how agent-based simulations synthesize individual variation in the epidemiological context of the RCT. This methodology will be particularly useful for designing RCTs aimed at evaluating combination prevention interventions in community-based RCTs, wherein an intervention׳s effectiveness is challenging to predict. PMID:24792492

  13. Recent Advances in Agent-Based Tsunami Evacuation Simulations: Case Studies in Indonesia, Thailand, Japan and Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mas, Erick; Koshimura, Shunichi; Imamura, Fumihiko; Suppasri, Anawat; Muhari, Abdul; Adriano, Bruno

    2015-12-01

    As confirmed by the extreme tsunami events over the last decade (the 2004 Indian Ocean, 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan tsunami events), mitigation measures and effective evacuation planning are needed to reduce disaster risks. Modeling tsunami evacuations is an alternative means to analyze evacuation plans and possible scenarios of evacuees' behaviors. In this paper, practical applications of an agent-based tsunami evacuation model are presented to demonstrate the contributions that agent-based modeling has added to tsunami evacuation simulations and tsunami mitigation efforts. A brief review of previous agent-based evacuation models in the literature is given to highlight recent progress in agent-based methods. Finally, challenges are noted for bridging gaps between geoscience and social science within the agent-based approach for modeling tsunami evacuations.

  14. Run Anyone?... Everyone!

    PubMed Central

    McInnis, W. P.

    1974-01-01

    Fitness and health have become bywords in the past decade, signifying increased emphasis on these factors as necessary for good psychological and physical health. Reasons are given why we should run and how to do it. There is a discussion of the technique of running, and equipment. Brief mention is made of complications. An attempt is made to interest the individual in the benefits of running as a sport as well as the best method for the average person to achieve fitness and health. PMID:20469054

  15. The LHCb Run Control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alessio, F.; Barandela, M. C.; Callot, O.; Duval, P.-Y.; Franek, B.; Frank, M.; Galli, D.; Gaspar, C.; Herwijnen, E. v.; Jacobsson, R.; Jost, B.; Neufeld, N.; Sambade, A.; Schwemmer, R.; Somogyi, P.

    2010-04-01

    LHCb has designed and implemented an integrated Experiment Control System. The Control System uses the same concepts and the same tools to control and monitor all parts of the experiment: the Data Acquisition System, the Timing and the Trigger Systems, the High Level Trigger Farm, the Detector Control System, the Experiment's Infrastructure and the interaction with the CERN Technical Services and the Accelerator. LHCb's Run Control, the main interface used by the experiment's operator, provides access in a hierarchical, coherent and homogeneous manner to all areas of the experiment and to all its sub-detectors. It allows for automated (or manual) configuration and control, including error recovery, of the full experiment in its different running modes. Different instances of the same Run Control interface are used by the various sub-detectors for their stand-alone activities: test runs, calibration runs, etc. The architecture and the tools used to build the control system, the guidelines and components provided to the developers, as well as the first experience with the usage of the Run Control will be presented

  16. Thread Group Multithreading: Accelerating the Computation of an Agent-Based Power System Modeling and Simulation Tool -- C GridLAB-D

    SciTech Connect

    Jin, Shuangshuang; Chassin, David P.

    2014-01-06

    GridLAB-DTM is an open source next generation agent-based smart-grid simulator that provides unprecedented capability to model the performance of smart grid technologies. Over the past few years, GridLAB-D has been used to conduct important analyses of smart grid concepts, but it is still quite limited by its computational performance. In order to break through the performance bottleneck to meet the need for large scale power grid simulations, we develop a thread group mechanism to implement highly granular multithreaded computation in GridLAB-D. We achieve close to linear speedups on multithreading version compared against the single-thread version of the same code running on general purpose multi-core commodity for a benchmark simple house model. The performance of the multithreading code shows favorable scalability properties and resource utilization, and much shorter execution time for large-scale power grid simulations.

  17. Learning Under Siege on the West Bank

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Judith

    1975-01-01

    Birzeit College, the only secular institution of higher education in the Israeli-occupied territories, continues to operate with 500 Palestinians attending classes on the West Bank of the Jordan River Valley even though its president, expelled for alleged subversive activities, continues to run the college from Beirut. (JT)

  18. Integrated Learning with International Banking Executives

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zinke, Sabine; Briault, Steve

    2007-01-01

    The article describes an in-house executive development programme run by the authors in a leading banking group in the CEE region. The programme attempts to follow a systemic approach to learning and contains a mix of elements including action learning, classroom teaching, study, peer support and feedback and "learning visits" to participants'…

  19. A Novel Application of Agent-based Modeling: Projecting Water Access and Availability Using a Coupled Hydrologic Agent-based Model in the Nzoia Basin, Kenya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le, A.; Pricope, N. G.

    2015-12-01

    Projections indicate that increasing population density, food production, and urbanization in conjunction with changing climate conditions will place stress on water resource availability. As a result, a holistic understanding of current and future water resource distribution is necessary for creating strategies to identify the most sustainable means of accessing this resource. Currently, most water resource management strategies rely on the application of global climate predictions to physically based hydrologic models to understand potential changes in water availability. However, the need to focus on understanding community-level social behaviors that determine individual water usage is becoming increasingly evident, as predictions derived only from hydrologic models cannot accurately represent the coevolution of basin hydrology and human water and land usage. Models that are better equipped to represent the complexity and heterogeneity of human systems and satellite-derived products in place of or in conjunction with historic data significantly improve preexisting hydrologic model accuracy and application outcomes. We used a novel agent-based sociotechnical model that combines the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Agent Analyst and applied it in the Nzoia Basin, an area in western Kenya that is becoming rapidly urbanized and industrialized. Informed by a combination of satellite-derived products and over 150 household surveys, the combined sociotechnical model provided unique insight into how populations self-organize and make decisions based on water availability. In addition, the model depicted how population organization and current management alter water availability currently and in the future.

  20. Is the Person-Situation Debate Important for Agent-Based Modeling and Vice-Versa?

    PubMed Central

    Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna; Szwabiński, Janusz; Weron, Rafał

    2014-01-01

    Background Agent-based models (ABM) are believed to be a very powerful tool in the social sciences, sometimes even treated as a substitute for social experiments. When building an ABM we have to define the agents and the rules governing the artificial society. Given the complexity and our limited understanding of the human nature, we face the problem of assuming that either personal traits, the situation or both have impact on the social behavior of agents. However, as the long-standing person-situation debate in psychology shows, there is no consensus as to the underlying psychological mechanism and the important question that arises is whether the modeling assumptions we make will have a substantial influence on the simulated behavior of the system as a whole or not. Methodology/Principal Findings Studying two variants of the same agent-based model of opinion formation, we show that the decision to choose either personal traits or the situation as the primary factor driving social interactions is of critical importance. Using Monte Carlo simulations (for Barabasi-Albert networks) and analytic calculations (for a complete graph) we provide evidence that assuming a person-specific response to social influence at the microscopic level generally leads to a completely different and less realistic aggregate or macroscopic behavior than an assumption of a situation-specific response; a result that has been reported by social psychologists for a range of experimental setups, but has been downplayed or ignored in the opinion dynamics literature. Significance This sensitivity to modeling assumptions has far reaching consequences also beyond opinion dynamics, since agent-based models are becoming a popular tool among economists and policy makers and are often used as substitutes of real social experiments. PMID:25369531

  1. Dosage and Dose Schedule Screening of Drug Combinations in Agent-Based Models Reveals Hidden Synergies

    PubMed Central

    Barros de Andrade e Sousa, Lisa C.; Kühn, Clemens; Tyc, Katarzyna M.; Klipp, Edda

    2016-01-01

    The fungus Candida albicans is the most common causative agent of human fungal infections and better drugs or drug combination strategies are urgently needed. Here, we present an agent-based model of the interplay of C. albicans with the host immune system and with the microflora of the host. We took into account the morphological change of C. albicans from the yeast to hyphae form and its dynamics during infection. The model allowed us to follow the dynamics of fungal growth and morphology, of the immune cells and of microflora in different perturbing situations. We specifically focused on the consequences of microflora reduction following antibiotic treatment. Using the agent-based model, different drug types have been tested for their effectiveness, namely drugs that inhibit cell division and drugs that constrain the yeast-to-hyphae transition. Applied individually, the division drug turned out to successfully decrease hyphae while the transition drug leads to a burst in hyphae after the end of the treatment. To evaluate the effect of different drug combinations, doses, and schedules, we introduced a measure for the return to a healthy state, the infection score. Using this measure, we found that the addition of a transition drug to a division drug treatment can improve the treatment reliability while minimizing treatment duration and drug dosage. In this work we present a theoretical study. Although our model has not been calibrated to quantitative experimental data, the technique of computationally identifying synergistic treatment combinations in an agent based model exemplifies the importance of computational techniques in translational research. PMID:26779031

  2. Dosage and Dose Schedule Screening of Drug Combinations in Agent-Based Models Reveals Hidden Synergies.

    PubMed

    Barros de Andrade E Sousa, Lisa C; Kühn, Clemens; Tyc, Katarzyna M; Klipp, Edda

    2015-01-01

    The fungus Candida albicans is the most common causative agent of human fungal infections and better drugs or drug combination strategies are urgently needed. Here, we present an agent-based model of the interplay of C. albicans with the host immune system and with the microflora of the host. We took into account the morphological change of C. albicans from the yeast to hyphae form and its dynamics during infection. The model allowed us to follow the dynamics of fungal growth and morphology, of the immune cells and of microflora in different perturbing situations. We specifically focused on the consequences of microflora reduction following antibiotic treatment. Using the agent-based model, different drug types have been tested for their effectiveness, namely drugs that inhibit cell division and drugs that constrain the yeast-to-hyphae transition. Applied individually, the division drug turned out to successfully decrease hyphae while the transition drug leads to a burst in hyphae after the end of the treatment. To evaluate the effect of different drug combinations, doses, and schedules, we introduced a measure for the return to a healthy state, the infection score. Using this measure, we found that the addition of a transition drug to a division drug treatment can improve the treatment reliability while minimizing treatment duration and drug dosage. In this work we present a theoretical study. Although our model has not been calibrated to quantitative experimental data, the technique of computationally identifying synergistic treatment combinations in an agent based model exemplifies the importance of computational techniques in translational research. PMID:26779031

  3. Genetic Algorithms for Agent-Based Infrastructure Interdependency Modeling and Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    May Permann

    2007-03-01

    Today’s society relies greatly upon an array of complex national and international infrastructure networks such as transportation, electric power, telecommunication, and financial networks. This paper describes initial research combining agent-based infrastructure modeling software and genetic algorithms (GAs) to help optimize infrastructure protection and restoration decisions. This research proposes to apply GAs to the problem of infrastructure modeling and analysis in order to determine the optimum assets to restore or protect from attack or other disaster. This research is just commencing and therefore the focus of this paper is the integration of a GA optimization method with a simulation through the simulation’s agents.

  4. Modeling and analysis of an agent-based model for Chinese stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Chun-Xia; Wang, Rui; Hu, Sen

    2013-11-01

    We constructed an agent-based stock market model which concisely describe investors' heterogeneity and adaptability by introducing price sensitivity and feedback time. Under different parameters, the peak and fat-tail property of return distribution is produced and the obtained statistic values coincide with empirical results: the center peak exponents range from -0.787 to -0.661, and the tail exponents range from -4.29 to -2.37. Besides, long-term correlation in volatility is examined by DFA1 method, and the obtained exponent α is 0.803, which also coincides with the exponent of 0.78 found in real market.

  5. Agent-Based Simulation for Interconnection-Scale Renewable Integration and Demand Response Studies

    SciTech Connect

    Chassin, David P.; Behboodi, Sahand; Crawford, Curran; Djilali, Ned

    2015-12-23

    This paper collects and synthesizes the technical requirements, implementation, and validation methods for quasi-steady agent-based simulations of interconnectionscale models with particular attention to the integration of renewable generation and controllable loads. Approaches for modeling aggregated controllable loads are presented and placed in the same control and economic modeling framework as generation resources for interconnection planning studies. Model performance is examined with system parameters that are typical for an interconnection approximately the size of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) and a control area about 1/100 the size of the system. These results are used to demonstrate and validate the methods presented.

  6. Advancing complementary and alternative medicine through social network analysis and agent-based modeling.

    PubMed

    Frantz, Terrill L

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces the contemporary perspectives and techniques of social network analysis (SNA) and agent-based modeling (ABM) and advocates applying them to advance various aspects of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM). SNA and ABM are invaluable methods for representing, analyzing and projecting complex, relational, social phenomena; they provide both an insightful vantage point and a set of analytic tools that can be useful in a wide range of contexts. Applying these methods in the CAM context can aid the ongoing advances in the CAM field, in both its scientific aspects and in developing broader acceptance in associated stakeholder communities. PMID:22327550

  7. Exploring walking differences by socioeconomic status using a spatial agent-based model

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Yong; Diez Roux, Ana V.; Auchincloss, Amy H.; Rodriguez, Daniel A.; Brown, Daniel G.

    2012-01-01

    We use an exploratory agent-based model of adults’ walking behavior within a city to examine the possible impact of interventions on socioeconomic differences in walking. Simulated results show that for persons of low socioeconomic status, increases in walking resulting from increases in their positive attitude towards walking may diminish over time if other features of the environment are not conducive to walking. Similarly, improving the safety level for the lower SES neighborhoods may be effective in increasing walking, however, the magnitude of its effectiveness varies by levels of land use mix, such that effects of safety are greatest when persons live in areas with a large mix of uses. PMID:22243911

  8. An agent-based computational model of the spread of tuberculosis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Espíndola, Aquino L.; Bauch, Chris T.; Troca Cabella, Brenno C.; Souto Martinez, Alexandre

    2011-05-01

    In this work we propose an alternative model of the spread of tuberculosis (TB) and the emergence of drug resistance due to the treatment with antibiotics. We implement the simulations by an agent-based model computational approach where the spatial structure is taken into account. The spread of tuberculosis occurs according to probabilities defined by the interactions among individuals. The model was validated by reproducing results already known from the literature in which different treatment regimes yield the emergence of drug resistance. The different patterns of TB spread can be visualized at any time of the system evolution. The implementation details as well as some results of this alternative approach are discussed.

  9. An Agent-Based Model of Centralized Institutions, Social Network Technology, and Revolution

    PubMed Central

    Makowsky, Michael D.; Rubin, Jared

    2013-01-01

    This paper sheds light on the general mechanisms underlying large-scale social and institutional change. We employ an agent-based model to test the impact of authority centralization and social network technology on preference falsification and institutional change. We find that preference falsification is increasing with centralization and decreasing with social network range. This leads to greater cascades of preference revelation and thus more institutional change in highly centralized societies and this effect is exacerbated at greater social network ranges. An empirical analysis confirms the connections that we find between institutional centralization, social radius, preference falsification, and institutional change. PMID:24278280

  10. Diffusion and Aggregation in an Agent Based Model of Stock Market Fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castiglione, Filippo

    We describe a new model to simulate the dynamic interactions between market price and the decisions of two different kind of traders. They possess spatial mobility allowing to group together to form coalitions. Each coalition follows a strategy chosen from a proportional voting ``dominated'' by a leader's decision. The interplay of both kind of agents gives rise to complex price dynamics that is consistent with the main stylized facts of financial time series. The present model incorporates many features of other known models and is meant to be the first step toward the construction of an agent-based model that uses more realistic markets rules, strategies, and information structures.

  11. Agent Based Modeling of Collaboration and Work Practices Onboard the International Space Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Acquisti, Alessandro; Sierhuis, Maarten; Clancey, William J.; Bradshaw, Jeffrey M.; Shaffo, Mike (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The International Space Station is one the most complex projects ever, with numerous interdependent constraints affecting productivity and crew safety. This requires planning years before crew expeditions, and the use of sophisticated scheduling tools. Human work practices, however, are difficult to study and represent within traditional planning tools. We present an agent-based model and simulation of the activities and work practices of astronauts onboard the ISS based on an agent-oriented approach. The model represents 'a day in the life' of the ISS crew and is developed in Brahms, an agent-oriented, activity-based language used to model knowledge in situated action and learning in human activities.

  12. Enhanced situational awareness in the maritime domain: an agent-based approach for situation management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brax, Christoffer; Niklasson, Lars

    2009-05-01

    Maritime Domain Awareness is important for both civilian and military applications. An important part of MDA is detection of unusual vessel activities such as piracy, smuggling, poaching, collisions, etc. Today's interconnected sensorsystems provide us with huge amounts of information over large geographical areas which can make the operators reach their cognitive capacity and start to miss important events. We propose and agent-based situation management system that automatically analyse sensor information to detect unusual activity and anomalies. The system combines knowledge-based detection with data-driven anomaly detection. The system is evaluated using information from both radar and AIS sensors.

  13. The epitheliome: agent-based modelling of the social behaviour of cells.

    PubMed

    Walker, D C; Southgate, J; Hill, G; Holcombe, M; Hose, D R; Wood, S M; Mac Neil, S; Smallwood, R H

    2004-01-01

    We have developed a new computational modelling paradigm for predicting the emergent behaviour resulting from the interaction of cells in epithelial tissue. As proof-of-concept, an agent-based model, in which there is a one-to-one correspondence between biological cells and software agents, has been coupled to a simple physical model. Behaviour of the computational model is compared with the growth characteristics of epithelial cells in monolayer culture, using growth media with low and physiological calcium concentrations. Results show a qualitative fit between the growth characteristics produced by the simulation and the in vitro cell models. PMID:15351133

  14. A Participatory Agent-Based Simulation for Indoor Evacuation Supported by Google Glass.

    PubMed

    Sánchez, Jesús M; Carrera, Álvaro; Iglesias, Carlos Á; Serrano, Emilio

    2016-01-01

    Indoor evacuation systems are needed for rescue and safety management. One of the challenges is to provide users with personalized evacuation routes in real time. To this end, this project aims at exploring the possibilities of Google Glass technology for participatory multiagent indoor evacuation simulations. Participatory multiagent simulation combines scenario-guided agents and humans equipped with Google Glass that coexist in a shared virtual space and jointly perform simulations. The paper proposes an architecture for participatory multiagent simulation in order to combine devices (Google Glass and/or smartphones) with an agent-based social simulator and indoor tracking services. PMID:27563911

  15. Exploring walking differences by socioeconomic status using a spatial agent-based model.

    PubMed

    Yang, Yong; Diez Roux, Ana V; Auchincloss, Amy H; Rodriguez, Daniel A; Brown, Daniel G

    2012-01-01

    We use an exploratory agent-based model of adults' walking behavior within a city to examine the possible impact of interventions on socioeconomic differences in walking. Simulated results show that for persons of low socioeconomic status, increases in walking resulting from increases in their positive attitude towards walking may diminish over time if other features of the environment are not conducive to walking. Similarly, improving the safety level for the lower SES neighborhoods may be effective in increasing walking, however, the magnitude of its effectiveness varies by levels of land use mix, such that effects of safety are greatest when persons live in areas with a large mix of uses. PMID:22243911

  16. Prevention of running injuries.

    PubMed

    Fields, Karl B; Sykes, Jeannie C; Walker, Katherine M; Jackson, Jonathan C

    2010-01-01

    Evidence for preventive strategies to lessen running injuries is needed as these occur in 40%-50% of runners on an annual basis. Many factors influence running injuries, but strong evidence for prevention only exists for training modification primarily by reducing weekly mileage. Two anatomical factors - cavus feet and leg length inequality - demonstrate a link to injury. Weak evidence suggests that orthotics may lessen risk of stress fracture, but no clear evidence proves they will reduce the risk of those athletes with leg length inequality or cavus feet. This article reviews other potential injury variables, including strength, biomechanics, stretching, warm-up, nutrition, psychological factors, and shoes. Additional research is needed to determine whether interventions to address any of these will help prevent running injury. PMID:20463502

  17. Fermilab DART run control

    SciTech Connect

    Oleynik, G.; Engelfried, J.; Mengel, L.

    1995-05-01

    DART is the high speed, Unix based data acquisition system being developed by Fermilab in collaboration with seven High Energy Physics Experiments. This paper describes DART run control, which has been developed over the past year and is a flexible, distributed, extensible system for the, control and monitoring of the data acquisition systems. We discuss the unique and interesting concepts of the run control and some of our experiences in developing it. We also give a brief update and status of the whole DART system.

  18. MINEBANK RUN PROJECT AS AN APPROACH FOR RESTORING DEGRADED URBAN WATERSHEDS AND RIPARIAN ECOSYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Elevated nitrate levels in streams and groundwater pose human and ecological threats. Minebank Run, an urban stream in Baltimore MD, will be restored in 2004/2005 using various techniques including reshaping stream banks to reconnect stream channel to flood plain, stream bank r...

  19. 12 CFR 583.3 - Bank.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Bank. 583.3 Section 583.3 Banks and Banking... AND LOAN HOLDING COMPANIES § 583.3 Bank. The term bank means any national bank, state bank, state-chartered savings bank, cooperative bank, or industrial bank, the deposits of which are insured by...

  20. 12 CFR 583.3 - Bank.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2013-01-01 2012-01-01 true Bank. 583.3 Section 583.3 Banks and Banking... AND LOAN HOLDING COMPANIES § 583.3 Bank. The term bank means any national bank, state bank, state-chartered savings bank, cooperative bank, or industrial bank, the deposits of which are insured by...

  1. 12 CFR 583.3 - Bank.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Bank. 583.3 Section 583.3 Banks and Banking... AND LOAN HOLDING COMPANIES § 583.3 Bank. The term bank means any national bank, state bank, state-chartered savings bank, cooperative bank, or industrial bank, the deposits of which are insured by...

  2. 12 CFR 583.3 - Bank.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2014-01-01 2012-01-01 true Bank. 583.3 Section 583.3 Banks and Banking... AND LOAN HOLDING COMPANIES § 583.3 Bank. The term bank means any national bank, state bank, state-chartered savings bank, cooperative bank, or industrial bank, the deposits of which are insured by...

  3. 12 CFR 583.3 - Bank.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Bank. 583.3 Section 583.3 Banks and Banking... AND LOAN HOLDING COMPANIES § 583.3 Bank. The term bank means any national bank, state bank, state-chartered savings bank, cooperative bank, or industrial bank, the deposits of which are insured by...

  4. Linking agent-based models and stochastic models of financial markets.

    PubMed

    Feng, Ling; Li, Baowen; Podobnik, Boris; Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H Eugene

    2012-05-29

    It is well-known that financial asset returns exhibit fat-tailed distributions and long-term memory. These empirical features are the main objectives of modeling efforts using (i) stochastic processes to quantitatively reproduce these features and (ii) agent-based simulations to understand the underlying microscopic interactions. After reviewing selected empirical and theoretical evidence documenting the behavior of traders, we construct an agent-based model to quantitatively demonstrate that "fat" tails in return distributions arise when traders share similar technical trading strategies and decisions. Extending our behavioral model to a stochastic model, we derive and explain a set of quantitative scaling relations of long-term memory from the empirical behavior of individual market participants. Our analysis provides a behavioral interpretation of the long-term memory of absolute and squared price returns: They are directly linked to the way investors evaluate their investments by applying technical strategies at different investment horizons, and this quantitative relationship is in agreement with empirical findings. Our approach provides a possible behavioral explanation for stochastic models for financial systems in general and provides a method to parameterize such models from market data rather than from statistical fitting. PMID:22586086

  5. An agent-based model of group decision making in baboons.

    PubMed

    Sellers, W I; Hill, R A; Logan, B S

    2007-09-29

    We present an agent-based model of the key activities of a troop of chacma baboons (Papio hamadryas ursinus) based on the data collected at De Hoop Nature Reserve in South Africa. We analyse the predictions of the model in terms of how well it is able to duplicate the observed activity patterns of the animals and the relationship between the parameters that control the agent's decision procedure and the model's predictions. At the current stage of model development, we are able to show that across a wide range of decision parameter values, the baboons are able to achieve their energetic and social time requirements. The simulation results also show that decisions concerning movement (group action selection) have the greatest influence on the outcomes. Those cases where the model's predictions fail to agree with the observed activity patterns have highlighted key elements that were missing from the field data, and that would need to be collected in subsequent fieldwork. Based on our experience, we believe group decision making is a fertile field for future research, and agent-based modelling offers considerable scope for understanding group action selection. PMID:17428770

  6. Social network analysis and agent-based modeling in social epidemiology

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    The past five years have seen a growth in the interest in systems approaches in epidemiologic research. These approaches may be particularly appropriate for social epidemiology. Social network analysis and agent-based models (ABMs) are two approaches that have been used in the epidemiologic literature. Social network analysis involves the characterization of social networks to yield inference about how network structures may influence risk exposures among those in the network. ABMs can promote population-level inference from explicitly programmed, micro-level rules in simulated populations over time and space. In this paper, we discuss the implementation of these models in social epidemiologic research, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. Network analysis may be ideal for understanding social contagion, as well as the influences of social interaction on population health. However, network analysis requires network data, which may sacrifice generalizability, and causal inference from current network analytic methods is limited. ABMs are uniquely suited for the assessment of health determinants at multiple levels of influence that may couple with social interaction to produce population health. ABMs allow for the exploration of feedback and reciprocity between exposures and outcomes in the etiology of complex diseases. They may also provide the opportunity for counterfactual simulation. However, appropriate implementation of ABMs requires a balance between mechanistic rigor and model parsimony, and the precision of output from complex models is limited. Social network and agent-based approaches are promising in social epidemiology, but continued development of each approach is needed. PMID:22296660

  7. Agent-based model of angiogenesis simulates capillary sprout initiation in multicellular networks.

    PubMed

    Walpole, J; Chappell, J C; Cluceru, J G; Mac Gabhann, F; Bautch, V L; Peirce, S M

    2015-09-01

    Many biological processes are controlled by both deterministic and stochastic influences. However, efforts to model these systems often rely on either purely stochastic or purely rule-based methods. To better understand the balance between stochasticity and determinism in biological processes a computational approach that incorporates both influences may afford additional insight into underlying biological mechanisms that give rise to emergent system properties. We apply a combined approach to the simulation and study of angiogenesis, the growth of new blood vessels from existing networks. This complex multicellular process begins with selection of an initiating endothelial cell, or tip cell, which sprouts from the parent vessels in response to stimulation by exogenous cues. We have constructed an agent-based model of sprouting angiogenesis to evaluate endothelial cell sprout initiation frequency and location, and we have experimentally validated it using high-resolution time-lapse confocal microscopy. ABM simulations were then compared to a Monte Carlo model, revealing that purely stochastic simulations could not generate sprout locations as accurately as the rule-informed agent-based model. These findings support the use of rule-based approaches for modeling the complex mechanisms underlying sprouting angiogenesis over purely stochastic methods. PMID:26158406

  8. Effect of individual protective behaviors on influenza transmission: an agent-based model.

    PubMed

    Karimi, Elnaz; Schmitt, Ketra; Akgunduz, Ali

    2015-09-01

    It is well established in the epidemiological literature that individual behaviors have a significant effect on the spread of infectious diseases. Agent-based models are increasingly being recognized as the next generation of epidemiological models. In this research, we use the ability of agent-based models to incorporate behavior into simulations by examining the relative importance of vaccination and social distancing, two common measures for controlling the spread of infectious diseases, with respect to seasonal influenza. We modeled health behaviour using the result of a Health Belief Model study focused on influenza. We considered a control and a treatment group to explore the effect of education on people's health-related behaviors patterns. The control group reflects the behavioral patterns of students based on their general knowledge of influenza and its interventions while the treatment group illustrates the level of behavioral changes after individuals have been educated by a health care expert. The results of this study indicate that self-initiated behaviors are successful in controlling an outbreak in a high contact rate location such as a university. Self-initiated behaviors resulted in a population attack rate decrease of 17% and a 25% reduction in the peak number of cases. The simulation also provides significant evidence for the effect of an HBM theory-based educational program to increase the rate of applying the target interventions (vaccination by 22% percent and social distancing by 41%) and consequently to control the outbreak. PMID:25578039

  9. Strategic directions for agent-based modeling: avoiding the YAAWN syndrome

    PubMed Central

    O’Sullivan, David; Evans, Tom; Manson, Steven; Metcalf, Sara; Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika; Bone, Chris

    2015-01-01

    In this short communication, we examine how agent-based modeling has become common in land change science and is increasingly used to develop case studies for particular times and places. There is a danger that the research community is missing a prime opportunity to learn broader lessons from the use of agent-based modeling (ABM), or at the very least not sharing these lessons more widely. How do we find an appropriate balance between empirically rich, realistic models and simpler theoretically grounded models? What are appropriate and effective approaches to model evaluation in light of uncertainties not only in model parameters but also in model structure? How can we best explore hybrid model structures that enable us to better understand the dynamics of the systems under study, recognizing that no single approach is best suited to this task? Under what circumstances – in terms of model complexity, model evaluation, and model structure – can ABMs be used most effectively to lead to new insight for stakeholders? We explore these questions in the hope of helping the growing community of land change scientists using models in their research to move from ‘yet another model’ to doing better science with models. PMID:27158257

  10. Agent-Based Modeling of the Immune System: NetLogo, a Promising Framework

    PubMed Central

    Chiacchio, Ferdinando; Russo, Giulia; Pappalardo, Francesco

    2014-01-01

    Several components that interact with each other to evolve a complex, and, in some cases, unexpected behavior, represents one of the main and fascinating features of the mammalian immune system. Agent-based modeling and cellular automata belong to a class of discrete mathematical approaches in which entities (agents) sense local information and undertake actions over time according to predefined rules. The strength of this approach is characterized by the appearance of a global behavior that emerges from interactions among agents. This behavior is unpredictable, as it does not follow linear rules. There are a lot of works that investigates the immune system with agent-based modeling and cellular automata. They have shown the ability to see clearly and intuitively into the nature of immunological processes. NetLogo is a multiagent programming language and modeling environment for simulating complex phenomena. It is designed for both research and education and is used across a wide range of disciplines and education levels. In this paper, we summarize NetLogo applications to immunology and, particularly, how this framework can help in the development and formulation of hypotheses that might drive further experimental investigations of disease mechanisms. PMID:24864263

  11. Agent-based Bayesian approach to monitoring the progress of invasive species eradication programs

    PubMed Central

    Keith, Jonathan M.; Spring, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    Eradication of an invasive species can provide significant environmental, economic, and social benefits, but eradication programs often fail. Constant and careful monitoring improves the chance of success, but an invasion may seem to be in decline even when it is expanding in abundance or spatial extent. Determining whether an invasion is in decline is a challenging inference problem for two reasons. First, it is typically infeasible to regularly survey the entire infested region owing to high cost. Second, surveillance methods are imperfect and fail to detect some individuals. These two factors also make it difficult to determine why an eradication program is failing. Agent-based methods enable inferences to be made about the locations of undiscovered individuals over time to identify trends in invader abundance and spatial extent. We develop an agent-based Bayesian method and apply it to Australia’s largest eradication program: the campaign to eradicate the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta) from Brisbane. The invasion was deemed to be almost eradicated in 2004 but our analyses indicate that its geographic range continued to expand despite a sharp decline in number of nests. We also show that eradication would probably have been achieved with a relatively small increase in the area searched and treated. Our results demonstrate the importance of inferring temporal and spatial trends in ongoing invasions. The method can handle incomplete observations and takes into account the effects of human intervention. It has the potential to transform eradication practices. PMID:23878210

  12. Modeling the Information Age Combat Model: An Agent-Based Simulation of Network Centric Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Deller, Sean; Rabadi, Ghaith A.; Bell, Michael I.; Bowling, Shannon R.; Tolk, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    The Information Age Combat Model (IACM) was introduced by Cares in 2005 to contribute to the development of an understanding of the influence of connectivity on force effectiveness that can eventually lead to quantitative prediction and guidelines for design and employment. The structure of the IACM makes it clear that the Perron-Frobenius Eigenvalue is a quantifiable metric with which to measure the organization of a networked force. The results of recent experiments presented in Deller, et aI., (2009) indicate that the value of the Perron-Frobenius Eigenvalue is a significant measurement of the performance of an Information Age combat force. This was accomplished through the innovative use of an agent-based simulation to model the IACM and represents an initial contribution towards a new generation of combat models that are net-centric instead of using the current platform-centric approach. This paper describes the intent, challenges, design, and initial results of this agent-based simulation model.

  13. Group-Wise Herding Behavior in Financial Markets: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Minsung; Kim, Minki

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we shed light on the dynamic characteristics of rational group behaviors and the relationship between monetary policy and economic units in the financial market by using an agent-based model (ABM), the Hurst exponent, and the Shannon entropy. First, an agent-based model is used to analyze the characteristics of the group behaviors at different levels of irrationality. Second, the Hurst exponent is applied to analyze the characteristics of the trend-following irrationality group. Third, the Shannon entropy is used to analyze the randomness and unpredictability of group behavior. We show that in a system that focuses on macro-monetary policy, steep fluctuations occur, meaning that the medium-level irrationality group has the highest Hurst exponent and Shannon entropy among all of the groups. However, in a system that focuses on micro-monetary policy, all group behaviors follow a stable trend, and the medium irrationality group thus remains stable, too. Likewise, in a system that focuses on both micro- and macro-monetary policies, all groups tend to be stable. Consequently, we find that group behavior varies across economic units at each irrationality level for micro- and macro-monetary policy in the financial market. Together, these findings offer key insights into monetary policy. PMID:24714635

  14. Intelligent Agent-Based Intrusion Detection System Using Enhanced Multiclass SVM

    PubMed Central

    Ganapathy, S.; Yogesh, P.; Kannan, A.

    2012-01-01

    Intrusion detection systems were used in the past along with various techniques to detect intrusions in networks effectively. However, most of these systems are able to detect the intruders only with high false alarm rate. In this paper, we propose a new intelligent agent-based intrusion detection model for mobile ad hoc networks using a combination of attribute selection, outlier detection, and enhanced multiclass SVM classification methods. For this purpose, an effective preprocessing technique is proposed that improves the detection accuracy and reduces the processing time. Moreover, two new algorithms, namely, an Intelligent Agent Weighted Distance Outlier Detection algorithm and an Intelligent Agent-based Enhanced Multiclass Support Vector Machine algorithm are proposed for detecting the intruders in a distributed database environment that uses intelligent agents for trust management and coordination in transaction processing. The experimental results of the proposed model show that this system detects anomalies with low false alarm rate and high-detection rate when tested with KDD Cup 99 data set. PMID:23056036

  15. Modeling the Population Dynamics of Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria:. AN Agent-Based Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, James T.; Walshe, Ray; Devocelle, Marc

    The response of bacterial populations to antibiotic treatment is often a function of a diverse range of interacting factors. In order to develop strategies to minimize the spread of antibiotic resistance in pathogenic bacteria, a sound theoretical understanding of the systems of interactions taking place within a colony must be developed. The agent-based approach to modeling bacterial populations is a useful tool for relating data obtained at the molecular and cellular level with the overall population dynamics. Here we demonstrate an agent-based model, called Micro-Gen, which has been developed to simulate the growth and development of bacterial colonies in culture. The model also incorporates biochemical rules and parameters describing the kinetic interactions of bacterial cells with antibiotic molecules. Simulations were carried out to replicate the development of methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) colonies growing in the presence of antibiotics. The model was explored to see how the properties of the system emerge from the interactions of the individual bacterial agents in order to achieve a better mechanistic understanding of the population dynamics taking place. Micro-Gen provides a good theoretical framework for investigating the effects of local environmental conditions and cellular properties on the response of bacterial populations to antibiotic exposure in the context of a simulated environment.

  16. Combining agent-based modeling and life cycle assessment for the evaluation of mobility policies.

    PubMed

    Florent, Querini; Enrico, Benetto

    2015-02-01

    This article presents agent-based modeling (ABM) as a novel approach for consequential life cycle assessment (C-LCA) of large scale policies, more specifically mobility-related policies. The approach is validated at the Luxembourgish level (as a first case study). The agent-based model simulates the car market (sales, use, and dismantling) of the population of users in the period 2013-2020, following the implementation of different mobility policies and available electric vehicles. The resulting changes in the car fleet composition as well as the hourly uses of the vehicles are then used to derive consistent LCA results, representing the consequences of the policies. Policies will have significant environmental consequences: when using ReCiPe2008, we observe a decrease of global warming, fossil depletion, acidification, ozone depletion, and photochemical ozone formation and an increase of metal depletion, ionizing radiations, marine eutrophication, and particulate matter formation. The study clearly shows that the extrapolation of LCA results for the circulating fleet at national scale following the introduction of the policies from the LCAs of single vehicles by simple up-scaling (using hypothetical deployment scenarios) would be flawed. The inventory has to be directly conducted at full scale and to this aim, ABM is indeed a promising approach, as it allows identifying and quantifying emerging effects while modeling the Life Cycle Inventory of vehicles at microscale through the concept of agents. PMID:25587896

  17. A Multi Agent-Based Framework for Simulating Household PHEV Distribution and Electric Distribution Network Impact

    SciTech Connect

    Cui, Xiaohui; Liu, Cheng; Kim, Hoe Kyoung; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Tuttle, Mark A; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

    2011-01-01

    The variation of household attributes such as income, travel distance, age, household member, and education for different residential areas may generate different market penetration rates for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV). Residential areas with higher PHEV ownership could increase peak electric demand locally and require utilities to upgrade the electric distribution infrastructure even though the capacity of the regional power grid is under-utilized. Estimating the future PHEV ownership distribution at the residential household level can help us understand the impact of PHEV fleet on power line congestion, transformer overload and other unforeseen problems at the local residential distribution network level. It can also help utilities manage the timing of recharging demand to maximize load factors and utilization of existing distribution resources. This paper presents a multi agent-based simulation framework for 1) modeling spatial distribution of PHEV ownership at local residential household level, 2) discovering PHEV hot zones where PHEV ownership may quickly increase in the near future, and 3) estimating the impacts of the increasing PHEV ownership on the local electric distribution network with different charging strategies. In this paper, we use Knox County, TN as a case study to show the simulation results of the agent-based model (ABM) framework. However, the framework can be easily applied to other local areas in the US.

  18. Linking agent-based models and stochastic models of financial markets

    PubMed Central

    Feng, Ling; Li, Baowen; Podobnik, Boris; Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2012-01-01

    It is well-known that financial asset returns exhibit fat-tailed distributions and long-term memory. These empirical features are the main objectives of modeling efforts using (i) stochastic processes to quantitatively reproduce these features and (ii) agent-based simulations to understand the underlying microscopic interactions. After reviewing selected empirical and theoretical evidence documenting the behavior of traders, we construct an agent-based model to quantitatively demonstrate that “fat” tails in return distributions arise when traders share similar technical trading strategies and decisions. Extending our behavioral model to a stochastic model, we derive and explain a set of quantitative scaling relations of long-term memory from the empirical behavior of individual market participants. Our analysis provides a behavioral interpretation of the long-term memory of absolute and squared price returns: They are directly linked to the way investors evaluate their investments by applying technical strategies at different investment horizons, and this quantitative relationship is in agreement with empirical findings. Our approach provides a possible behavioral explanation for stochastic models for financial systems in general and provides a method to parameterize such models from market data rather than from statistical fitting. PMID:22586086

  19. An Agent-Based Dynamic Model for Analysis of Distributed Space Exploration Architectures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sindiy, Oleg V.; DeLaurentis, Daniel A.; Stein, William B.

    2009-07-01

    A range of complex challenges, but also potentially unique rewards, underlie the development of exploration architectures that use a distributed, dynamic network of resources across the solar system. From a methodological perspective, the prime challenge is to systematically model the evolution (and quantify comparative performance) of such architectures, under uncertainty, to effectively direct further study of specialized trajectories, spacecraft technologies, concept of operations, and resource allocation. A process model for System-of-Systems Engineering is used to define time-varying performance measures for comparative architecture analysis and identification of distinguishing patterns among interoperating systems. Agent-based modeling serves as the means to create a discrete-time simulation that generates dynamics for the study of architecture evolution. A Solar System Mobility Network proof-of-concept problem is introduced representing a set of longer-term, distributed exploration architectures. Options within this set revolve around deployment of human and robotic exploration and infrastructure assets, their organization, interoperability, and evolution, i.e., a system-of-systems. Agent-based simulations quantify relative payoffs for a fully distributed architecture (which can be significant over the long term), the latency period before they are manifest, and the up-front investment (which can be substantial compared to alternatives). Verification and sensitivity results provide further insight on development paths and indicate that the framework and simulation modeling approach may be useful in architectural design of other space exploration mass, energy, and information exchange settings.

  20. Effectiveness of dynamic rescheduling in agent-based flexible manufacturing systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saad, Ashraf; Biswas, Gautam; Kawamura, Kazuhiko; Johnson, Eric M.

    1997-12-01

    This work has been developed within the framework of agent- based decentralized scheduling for flexible manufacturing systems. In this framework, all workcells comprising the manufacturing system, and the products to be generated, are modeled via intelligent software agents. These agents interact dynamically using a bidding production reservation (BPRS) scheme, based on the Contract Net Protocol, to devise the production schedule for each product unit. Simulation studies of a job shop have demonstrated the gains in performance achieved by this approach over heuristic dispatching rules commonly used in industry. Manufacturing environments are also prone to operational uncertainties such as variations in processing times and machine breakdowns. In order to cope with these uncertainties, the BPRS algorithm has been extended for dynamic rescheduling to also occur in a fully decentralized manner. The resulting multi-agent rescheduling scheme results in decentralized control of flexible manufacturing systems that are capable of responding dynamically to such operational uncertainties, thereby enhancing the robustness and fault tolerance of the proposed scheduling approach. This paper also presents the effects of the proposed agent-based decentralized scheduling approach on the performance of the underlying flexible manufacturing system under a variety of production and scheduling scenarios, including forward and backward scheduling. Future directions for this work include applying the proposed scheduling approach to other advanced manufacturing areas such as agile and holonic manufacturing.

  1. Agent-based Model for the Coupled Human-Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zvoleff, A.; Werner, B.

    2006-12-01

    Integrated assessment models have been used to predict the outcome of coupled economic growth, resource use, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, both for scientific and policy purposes. These models generally have employed significant simplifications that suppress nonlinearities and the possibility of multiple equilibria in both their economic (DeCanio, 2005) and climate (Schneider and Kuntz-Duriseti, 2002) components. As one step toward exploring general features of the nonlinear dynamics of the coupled system, we have developed a series of variations on the well studied RICE and DICE models, which employ different forms of agent-based market dynamics and "climate surprises." Markets are introduced through the replacement of the production function of the DICE/RICE models with an agent-based market modeling the interactions of producers, policymakers, and consumer agents. Technological change and population growth are treated endogenously. Climate surprises are representations of positive (for example, ice sheet collapse) or negative (for example, increased aerosols from desertification) feedbacks that are turned on with probability depending on warming. Initial results point toward the possibility of large amplitude instabilities in the coupled human-climate system owing to the mismatch between short outlook market dynamics and long term climate responses. Implications for predictability of future climate will be discussed. Supported by the Andrew W Mellon Foundation and the UC Academic Senate.

  2. Group-wise herding behavior in financial markets: an agent-based modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Kim, Minsung; Kim, Minki

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we shed light on the dynamic characteristics of rational group behaviors and the relationship between monetary policy and economic units in the financial market by using an agent-based model (ABM), the Hurst exponent, and the Shannon entropy. First, an agent-based model is used to analyze the characteristics of the group behaviors at different levels of irrationality. Second, the Hurst exponent is applied to analyze the characteristics of the trend-following irrationality group. Third, the Shannon entropy is used to analyze the randomness and unpredictability of group behavior. We show that in a system that focuses on macro-monetary policy, steep fluctuations occur, meaning that the medium-level irrationality group has the highest Hurst exponent and Shannon entropy among all of the groups. However, in a system that focuses on micro-monetary policy, all group behaviors follow a stable trend, and the medium irrationality group thus remains stable, too. Likewise, in a system that focuses on both micro- and macro-monetary policies, all groups tend to be stable. Consequently, we find that group behavior varies across economic units at each irrationality level for micro- and macro-monetary policy in the financial market. Together, these findings offer key insights into monetary policy. PMID:24714635

  3. An Agent-Based Modeling Framework and Application for the Generic Nuclear Fuel Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gidden, Matthew J.

    Key components of a novel methodology and implementation of an agent-based, dynamic nuclear fuel cycle simulator, Cyclus , are presented. The nuclear fuel cycle is a complex, physics-dependent supply chain. To date, existing dynamic simulators have not treated constrained fuel supply, time-dependent, isotopic-quality based demand, or fuel fungibility particularly well. Utilizing an agent-based methodology that incorporates sophisticated graph theory and operations research techniques can overcome these deficiencies. This work describes a simulation kernel and agents that interact with it, highlighting the Dynamic Resource Exchange (DRE), the supply-demand framework at the heart of the kernel. The key agent-DRE interaction mechanisms are described, which enable complex entity interaction through the use of physics and socio-economic models. The translation of an exchange instance to a variant of the Multicommodity Transportation Problem, which can be solved feasibly or optimally, follows. An extensive investigation of solution performance and fidelity is then presented. Finally, recommendations for future users of Cyclus and the DRE are provided.

  4. An Agent-Based Model of Farmer Decision Making in Jordan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Selby, Philip; Medellin-Azuara, Josue; Harou, Julien; Klassert, Christian; Yoon, Jim

    2016-04-01

    We describe an agent based hydro-economic model of groundwater irrigated agriculture in the Jordan Highlands. The model employs a Multi-Agent-Simulation (MAS) framework and is designed to evaluate direct and indirect outcomes of climate change scenarios and policy interventions on farmer decision making, including annual land use, groundwater use for irrigation, and water sales to a water tanker market. Land use and water use decisions are simulated for groups of farms grouped by location and their behavioural and economic similarities. Decreasing groundwater levels, and the associated increase in pumping costs, are important drivers for change within Jordan'S agricultural sector. We describe how this is considered by coupling of agricultural and groundwater models. The agricultural production model employs Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP), a method for calibrating agricultural production functions to observed planted areas. PMP has successfully been used with disaggregate models for policy analysis. We adapt the PMP approach to allow explicit evaluation of the impact of pumping costs, groundwater purchase fees and a water tanker market. The work demonstrates the applicability of agent-based agricultural decision making assessment in the Jordan Highlands and its integration with agricultural model calibration methods. The proposed approach is designed and implemented with software such that it could be used to evaluate a variety of physical and human influences on decision making in agricultural water management.

  5. Agent-based modeling of the immune system: NetLogo, a promising framework.

    PubMed

    Chiacchio, Ferdinando; Pennisi, Marzio; Russo, Giulia; Motta, Santo; Pappalardo, Francesco

    2014-01-01

    Several components that interact with each other to evolve a complex, and, in some cases, unexpected behavior, represents one of the main and fascinating features of the mammalian immune system. Agent-based modeling and cellular automata belong to a class of discrete mathematical approaches in which entities (agents) sense local information and undertake actions over time according to predefined rules. The strength of this approach is characterized by the appearance of a global behavior that emerges from interactions among agents. This behavior is unpredictable, as it does not follow linear rules. There are a lot of works that investigates the immune system with agent-based modeling and cellular automata. They have shown the ability to see clearly and intuitively into the nature of immunological processes. NetLogo is a multiagent programming language and modeling environment for simulating complex phenomena. It is designed for both research and education and is used across a wide range of disciplines and education levels. In this paper, we summarize NetLogo applications to immunology and, particularly, how this framework can help in the development and formulation of hypotheses that might drive further experimental investigations of disease mechanisms. PMID:24864263

  6. Running Wheel for Earthworms.

    PubMed

    Wilson, W Jeffrey; Johnson, Brandon A

    2016-01-01

    We describe the construction and use of a running wheel responsive to the movement of the earthworm. The wheel employs readily available, inexpensive components and is easily constructed. Movement of the wheel can be monitored visually or via standard behavioral laboratory computer interfaces. Examples of data are presented, and possibilities for use in the teaching classroom are discussed. PMID:27385934

  7. The Art of Running

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Jill Harris

    2007-01-01

    Every year, the Parent-Teacher Association of Ferndale Elementary School in Atlanta, Georgia sponsors a fun road race for the students, teachers, families, and community. This annual event has inspired the author to develop the Running and Art project to show off her students' art and squeeze in a little art history, too. In this article, the…

  8. Running Wheel for Earthworms

    PubMed Central

    Wilson, W. Jeffrey; Johnson, Brandon A.

    2016-01-01

    We describe the construction and use of a running wheel responsive to the movement of the earthworm. The wheel employs readily available, inexpensive components and is easily constructed. Movement of the wheel can be monitored visually or via standard behavioral laboratory computer interfaces. Examples of data are presented, and possibilities for use in the teaching classroom are discussed. PMID:27385934

  9. Runnings in the curvaton

    SciTech Connect

    Kobayashi, Takeshi; Takahashi, Tomo E-mail: tomot@cc.saga-u.ac.jp

    2012-06-01

    We investigate the scale-dependence, or the runnings, of linear and second order density perturbations generated in various curvaton scenarios. We argue that the second order perturbations, i.e. non-Gaussianity, can strongly depend on the scale, even when the linear perturbations are nearly scale-invariant. We present analytic formulae for the runnings from curvatons with general energy potentials, and clarify the conditions under which f{sub NL} becomes strongly scale-dependent. From the point of view of the f{sub NL} running, curvaton potentials can be classified into roughly two categories by whether the potential flattens or steepens compared to a quadratic one. As such examples, we study pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone curvatons, and self-interacting curvatons, respectively. The dynamics of non-quadratic curvatons and the behaviors of the resulting density perturbations are clarified by analytical methods. Then we also study models where multiple source can be responsible for density perturbations such as the multi-curvaton, and mixed curvaton and inflaton models where the running of f{sub NL} can also be large due to their multi-source nature. We make quantitative analysis for each curvaton scenario and discuss in what cases the scale-dependence, in particular, of f{sub NL} can be large enough to be probed with future CMB experiments.

  10. The World Bank's innovation market.

    PubMed

    Wood, Robert Chapman; Hamel, Gary

    2002-11-01

    Large, tradition-bound organizations can make space for radical, low-cost (and therefore low-risk) innovations. Just ask executives at the World Bank. The story of this best practice begins in 1998, when a young new-products group at the international funding agency proposed holding an Innovation Marketplace to capture novel ideas within the Bank for alleviating poverty. The forum, which eventually was opened to external participants, let people informally present their antipoverty ideas to potential funding sources. Funders could move among hundreds of booths and evaluate proposals for, say, a program that would provide postdisaster reconstruction insurance in developing countries or a vaccination development initiative. The marketplace truncated the Bank's standard project-review processes, which often stretched to a year or more, and gave funders permission to make commitments in the tens of thousands of dollars, rather than in the tens of millions more typical of Bank-financed projects. The marketplace concept met with some skepticism at the beginning. Some senior executives at the Bank felt no group had the right to spend the agency's money without following its well-established resource allocations process. But the marketplace team believed an open process for allocating grants would produce more breakthrough ideas in the long run than a centralized one. In this article, the authors describe how the new-products team brainstormed to create a market for ideas, how it got senior management's support, and how it has expanded on the original concept for these innovation marketplaces. The program's success, they contend, offers hope both for the world's poor and for business leaders looking to find new ideas under the hard crust of corporate dogma, conformance, and bureaucracy. PMID:12422794

  11. A spatial web/agent-based model to support stakeholders' negotiation regarding land development.

    PubMed

    Pooyandeh, Majeed; Marceau, Danielle J

    2013-11-15

    Decision making in land management can be greatly enhanced if the perspectives of concerned stakeholders are taken into consideration. This often implies negotiation in order to reach an agreement based on the examination of multiple alternatives. This paper describes a spatial web/agent-based modeling system that was developed to support the negotiation process of stakeholders regarding land development in southern Alberta, Canada. This system integrates a fuzzy analytic hierarchy procedure within an agent-based model in an interactive visualization environment provided through a web interface to facilitate the learning and negotiation of the stakeholders. In the pre-negotiation phase, the stakeholders compare their evaluation criteria using linguistic expressions. Due to the uncertainty and fuzzy nature of such comparisons, a fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process is then used to prioritize the criteria. The negotiation starts by a development plan being submitted by a user (stakeholder) through the web interface. An agent called the proposer, which represents the proposer of the plan, receives this plan and starts negotiating with all other agents. The negotiation is conducted in a step-wise manner where the agents change their attitudes by assigning a new set of weights to their criteria. If an agreement is not achieved, a new location for development is proposed by the proposer agent. This process is repeated until a location is found that satisfies all agents to a certain predefined degree. To evaluate the performance of the model, the negotiation was simulated with four agents, one of which being the proposer agent, using two hypothetical development plans. The first plan was selected randomly; the other one was chosen in an area that is of high importance to one of the agents. While the agents managed to achieve an agreement about the location of the land development after three rounds of negotiation in the first scenario, seven rounds were required in the second

  12. Evaluating network analysis and agent based modeling for investigating the stability of commercial air carrier schedules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conway, Sheila Ruth

    For a number of years, the United States Federal Government has been formulating the Next Generation Air Transportation System plans for National Airspace System improvement. These improvements attempt to address air transportation holistically, but often address individual improvements in one arena such as ground or in-flight equipment. In fact, air transportation system designers have had only limited success using traditional Operations Research and parametric modeling approaches in their analyses of innovative operations. They need a systemic methodology for modeling of safety-critical infrastructure that is comprehensive, objective, and sufficiently concrete, yet simple enough to be deployed with reasonable investment. The methodology must also be amenable to quantitative analysis so issues of system safety and stability can be rigorously addressed. The literature suggests that both agent-based models and network analysis techniques may be useful for complex system development and analysis. The purpose of this research is to evaluate these two techniques as applied to analysis of commercial air carrier schedule (route) stability in daily operations, an important component of air transportation. Airline-like routing strategies are used to educe essential elements of applying the method. Two main models are developed, one investigating the network properties of the route structure, the other an Agent-based approach. The two methods are used to predict system properties at a macro-level. These findings are compared to observed route network performance measured by adherence to a schedule to provide validation of the results. Those interested in complex system modeling are provided some indication as to when either or both of the techniques would be applicable. For aviation policy makers, the results point to a toolset capable of providing insight into the system behavior during the formative phases of development and transformation with relatively low investment

  13. Does running strengthen bone?

    PubMed

    Boudenot, Arnaud; Achiou, Zahra; Portier, Hugues

    2015-12-01

    Bone is a living tissue needing mechanical stress to maintain strength. Traditional endurance exercises offer only modest effects on bone. Walking and running produce low impact but lead to bone fatigue. This article is specifically addressed to therapists and explains the mechanisms involved for the effects of exercise on bone. Intermittent exercise limits bone fatigue, and downhill exercises increase ground impact forces and involve eccentric muscle contractions, which are particularly osteogenic. PMID:26562001

  14. Agent-based modeling: a new approach for theory building in social psychology.

    PubMed

    Smith, Eliot R; Conrey, Frederica R

    2007-02-01

    Most social and psychological phenomena occur not as the result of isolated decisions by individuals but rather as the result of repeated interactions between multiple individuals over time. Yet the theory-building and modeling techniques most commonly used in social psychology are less than ideal for understanding such dynamic and interactive processes. This article describes an alternative approach to theory building, agent-based modeling (ABM), which involves simulation of large numbers of autonomous agents that interact with each other and with a simulated environment and the observation of emergent patterns from their interactions. The authors believe that the ABM approach is better able than prevailing approaches in the field, variable-based modeling (VBM) techniques such as causal modeling, to capture types of complex, dynamic, interactive processes so important in the social world. The article elaborates several important contrasts between ABM and VBM and offers specific recommendations for learning more and applying the ABM approach. PMID:18453457

  15. Understanding the Dynamics of Violent Political Revolutions in an Agent-Based Framework

    PubMed Central

    Moro, Alessandro

    2016-01-01

    This paper develops an agent-based computational model of violent political revolutions in which a subjugated population of citizens and an armed revolutionary organisation attempt to overthrow a central authority and its loyal forces. The model replicates several patterns of rebellion consistent with major historical revolutions, and provides an explanation for the multiplicity of outcomes that can arise from an uprising. The relevance of the heterogeneity of scenarios predicted by the model can be understood by considering the recent experience of the Arab Spring involving several rebellions that arose in an apparently similar way, but resulted in completely different political outcomes: the successful revolution in Tunisia, the failed protests in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and civil war in Syria and Libya. PMID:27104855

  16. Integrated PK-PD and Agent-Based Modeling in Oncology

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Zhihui; Butner, Joseph D.; Cristini, Vittorio

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical modeling has become a valuable tool that strives to complement conventional biomedical research modalities in order to predict experimental outcome, generate new medical hypotheses, and optimize clinical therapies. Two specific approaches, pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) modeling, and agent-based modeling (ABM), have been widely applied in cancer research. While they have made important contributions on their own (e.g., PK-PD in examining chemotherapy drug efficacy and resistance, and ABM in describing and predicting tumor growth and metastasis), only a few groups have started to combine both approaches together in an effort to gain more insights into the details of drug dynamics and the resulting impact on tumor growth. In this review, we focus our discussion on some of the most recent modeling studies building on a combined PK-PD and ABM approach that have generated experimentally testable hypotheses. Some future directions are also discussed. PMID:25588379

  17. An agent based multi-optional model for the diffusion of innovations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laciana, Carlos E.; Oteiza-Aguirre, Nicolás

    2014-01-01

    We propose a model for the diffusion of several products competing in a common market based on the generalization of the Ising model of statistical mechanics (Potts model). Using an agent based implementation we analyze two problems: (i) a three options case, i.e. to adopt a product A, a product B, or non-adoption and (ii) a four option case, i.e. the adoption of product A, product B, both, or none. In the first case we analyze a launching strategy for one of the two products, which delays its launching with the objective of competing with improvements. Market shares reached by each product are then estimated at market saturation. Finally, simulations are carried out with varying degrees of social network topology, uncertainty, and population homogeneity.

  18. Re-Examining of Moffitt’s Theory of Delinquency through Agent Based Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Leaw, Jia Ning; Ang, Rebecca P.; Huan, Vivien S.; Chan, Wei Teng; Cheong, Siew Ann

    2015-01-01

    Moffitt’s theory of delinquency suggests that at-risk youths can be divided into two groups, the adolescence- limited group and the life-course-persistent group, predetermined at a young age, and social interactions between these two groups become important during the adolescent years. We built an agent-based model based on the microscopic interactions Moffitt described: (i) a maturity gap that dictates (ii) the cost and reward of antisocial behavior, and (iii) agents imitating the antisocial behaviors of others more successful than themselves, to find indeed the two groups emerging in our simulations. Moreover, through an intervention simulation where we moved selected agents from one social network to another, we also found that the social network plays an important role in shaping the life course outcome. PMID:26062022

  19. Bankruptcy Problem Approach to Load-Shedding in Agent-Based Microgrid Operation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Hak-Man; Kinoshita, Tetsuo; Lim, Yujin; Kim, Tai-Hoon

    Research, development, and demonstration projects on microgrids have been progressed in many countries. Furthermore, microgrids are expected to introduce into power grids as eco-friendly small-scale power grids in the near future. Load-shedding is a problem not avoided to meet power balance between power supply and power demand to maintain specific frequency such as 50 Hz or 60 Hz. Load-shedding causes consumers inconvenience and therefore should be performed minimally. Recently, agent-based microgrid operation has been studied and new algorithms for their autonomous operation including load-shedding has been required. The bankruptcy problem deals with distribution insufficient sources to claimants. In this paper, we approach the load-shedding problem as a bankruptcy problem and adopt the Talmud rule as an algorithm. Load-shedding using the Talmud rule is tested in islanded microgrid operation based on a multiagent system.

  20. Changing crops in response to climate: virtual Nang Rong, Thailand in an agent based simulation

    PubMed Central

    Malanson, George P.; Verdery, Ashton M.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Sawangdee, Yothin; Heumann, Benjamin W.; McDaniel, Philip M.; Frizzelle, Brian G.; Williams, Nathalie E.; Yao, Xiaozheng; Entwisle, Barbara; Rindfuss, Ronald R.

    2014-01-01

    The effects of extended climatic variability on agricultural land use were explored for the type of system found in villages of northeastern Thailand. An agent based model developed for the Nang Rong district was used to simulate land allotted to jasmine rice, heavy rice, cassava, and sugar cane. The land use choices in the model depended on likely economic outcomes, but included elements of bounded rationality in dependence on household demography. The socioeconomic dynamics are endogenous in the system, and climate changes were added as exogenous drivers. Villages changed their agricultural effort in many different ways. Most villages reduced the amount of land under cultivation, primarily with reduction in jasmine rice, but others did not. The variation in responses to climate change indicates potential sensitivity to initial conditions and path dependence for this type of system. The differences between our virtual villages and the real villages of the region indicate effects of bounded rationality and limits on model applications. PMID:25061240

  1. Agent-based model for the h-index - exact solution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Żogała-Siudem, Barbara; Siudem, Grzegorz; Cena, Anna; Gagolewski, Marek

    2016-01-01

    Hirsch's h-index is perhaps the most popular citation-based measure of scientific excellence. In 2013, Ionescu and Chopard proposed an agent-based model describing a process for generating publications and citations in an abstract scientific community [G. Ionescu, B. Chopard, Eur. Phys. J. B 86, 426 (2013)]. Within such a framework, one may simulate a scientist's activity, and - by extension - investigate the whole community of researchers. Even though the Ionescu and Chopard model predicts the h-index quite well, the authors provided a solution based solely on simulations. In this paper, we complete their results with exact, analytic formulas. What is more, by considering a simplified version of the Ionescu-Chopard model, we obtained a compact, easy to compute formula for the h-index. The derived approximate and exact solutions are investigated on a simulated and real-world data sets.

  2. An agent-based interaction model for Chinese personal income distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zou, Yijiang; Deng, Weibing; Li, Wei; Cai, Xu

    2015-10-01

    The personal income distribution in China was studied by employing the data from China Household Income Projects (CHIP) between 1990 and 2002. It was observed that the low and middle income regions could be described by the log-normal law, while the large income region could be well fitted by the power law. To characterize these empirical findings, a stochastic interactive model with mean-field approach was discussed, and the analytic result shows that the wealth distribution is of the Pareto type. Then we explored the agent-based model on networks, in which the exchange of wealth among agents depends on their connectivity. Numerical results suggest that the wealth of agents would largely rely on their connectivity, and the Pareto index of the simulated wealth distributions is comparable to those of the empirical data. The Pareto behavior of the tails of the empirical wealth distributions is consistent with that of the 'mean-field' model, as well as numerical simulations.

  3. Multi-Agent-Based Simulation of a Complex Ecosystem of Mental Health Care.

    PubMed

    Kalton, Alan; Falconer, Erin; Docherty, John; Alevras, Dimitris; Brann, David; Johnson, Kyle

    2016-02-01

    This paper discusses the creation of an Agent-Based Simulation that modeled the introduction of care coordination capabilities into a complex system of care for patients with Serious and Persistent Mental Illness. The model describes the engagement between patients and the medical, social and criminal justice services they interact with in a complex ecosystem of care. We outline the challenges involved in developing the model, including process mapping and the collection and synthesis of data to support parametric estimates, and describe the controls built into the model to support analysis of potential changes to the system. We also describe the approach taken to calibrate the model to an observable level of system performance. Preliminary results from application of the simulation are provided to demonstrate how it can provide insights into potential improvements deriving from introduction of care coordination technology. PMID:26590977

  4. GridLAB-D: An Agent-Based Simulation Framework for Smart Grids

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Chassin, David P.; Fuller, Jason C.; Djilali, Ned

    2014-01-01

    Simulation of smart grid technologies requires a fundamentally new approach to integrated modeling of power systems, energy markets, building technologies, and the plethora of other resources and assets that are becoming part of modern electricity production, delivery, and consumption systems. As a result, the US Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity commissioned the development of a new type of power system simulation tool called GridLAB-D that uses an agent-based approach to simulating smart grids. This paper presents the numerical methods and approach to time-series simulation used by GridLAB-D and reviews applications in power system studies, market design, building control systemmore » design, and integration of wind power in a smart grid.« less

  5. Agent based model of effects of task allocation strategies in flat organizations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    2016-09-01

    A common practice in many organizations is to pile the work on the best performers. It is easy to implement by the management and, despite the apparent injustice, appears to be working in many situations. In our work we present a simple agent based model, constructed to simulate this practice and to analyze conditions under which the overall efficiency of the organization (for example measured by the backlog of unresolved issues) breaks down, due to the cumulative effect of the individual overloads. The model confirms that the strategy mentioned above is, indeed, rational: it leads to better global results than an alternative one, using equal workload distribution among all workers. The presented analyses focus on the behavior of the organizations close to the limit of the maximum total throughput and provide results for the growth of the unprocessed backlog in several situations, as well as suggestions related to avoiding such buildup.

  6. Quantitative agent-based firm dynamics simulation with parameters estimated by financial and transaction data analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ikeda, Yuichi; Souma, Wataru; Aoyama, Hideaki; Iyetomi, Hiroshi; Fujiwara, Yoshi; Kaizoji, Taisei

    2007-03-01

    Firm dynamics on a transaction network is considered from the standpoint of econophysics, agent-based simulations, and game theory. In this model, interacting firms rationally invest in a production facility to maximize net present value. We estimate parameters used in the model through empirical analysis of financial and transaction data. We propose two different methods ( analytical method and regression method) to obtain an interaction matrix of firms. On a subset of a real transaction network, we simulate firm's revenue, cost, and fixed asset, which is the accumulated investment for the production facility. The simulation reproduces the quantitative behavior of past revenues and costs within a standard error when we use the interaction matrix estimated by the regression method, in which only transaction pairs are taken into account. Furthermore, the simulation qualitatively reproduces past data of fixed assets.

  7. An Exploration into the Uses of Agent-Based Modeling to Improve Quality of Healthcare

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanagarajah, Ashok Kay; Lindsay, Peter; Miller, Anne; Parker, David

    Healthcare is a complex adaptive system. This paper discusses, healthcare in the context of complex systems architecture and an agent based modeling framework. The paper demonstrates complications of healthcare system improvement and it's impact on patient safety, economics and workloads. Further an application of safety dynamics model proposed by Cook and Rasmussen4 is explored using a hypothetical simulation of an emergency department. By means of simulation, this paper demonstrates the nonlinear behaviors of a health service unit and its complexities; and how the safety dynamic model may be used to evaluate various aspects of healthcare. Further work is required to apply this concept in a `real life environment' and its consequence to societal, organizational and operational levels of healthcare.

  8. An Exploration into the Uses of Agent-Based Modeling to Improve Quality of Healthcare

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanagarajah, Ashok Kay; Lindsay, Peter; Miller, Anne; Parker, David

    Healthcare is a complex adaptive system. This paper discusses, healthcare in the context of complex systems architecture and an agent based modeling framework. The paper demonstrates complications of healthcare system improvement and it's impact on patient safety, economics and workloads. Further an application of safety dynamics model proposed by Cook and Rasmussen4 is explored using a hypothetical simulation of an emergency department. By means of simulation, this paper demonstrates the nonlinear behaviors of a health service unit and its complexities; and how the safety dynamic model may be used to evaluate various aspects of healthcare. Further work is required to apply this concept in a 'real life environment' and its consequence to societal, organizational and operational levels of healthcare.

  9. Bridging the gap: From computational agent-based models to analytical tractability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dyson, Louise; Lafuerza, Luis F.; McKane, Alan J.; Edmonds, Bruce

    2014-03-01

    In order to investigate complex inter-dependent systems such as those found in the biological and social sciences, one is often left trying to examine complicated, descriptive models. To aid in understanding these it would be helpful to develop tools for examining how these relate to simpler models with understandable and analysable mechanisms. We describe a way of analysing the formation of a social network in a complex computational model that represents voting patterns in a population of agents who may live, work and form friendships together. Once the network is formed, we examine the spread of ``intention to vote'' and compare our findings with those found in the descriptive, agent-based model.

  10. Understanding the Dynamics of Violent Political Revolutions in an Agent-Based Framework.

    PubMed

    Moro, Alessandro

    2016-01-01

    This paper develops an agent-based computational model of violent political revolutions in which a subjugated population of citizens and an armed revolutionary organisation attempt to overthrow a central authority and its loyal forces. The model replicates several patterns of rebellion consistent with major historical revolutions, and provides an explanation for the multiplicity of outcomes that can arise from an uprising. The relevance of the heterogeneity of scenarios predicted by the model can be understood by considering the recent experience of the Arab Spring involving several rebellions that arose in an apparently similar way, but resulted in completely different political outcomes: the successful revolution in Tunisia, the failed protests in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and civil war in Syria and Libya. PMID:27104855

  11. Computational Research on Mobile Pastoralism Using Agent-Based Modeling and Satellite Imagery

    PubMed Central

    Sakamoto, Takuto

    2016-01-01

    Dryland pastoralism has long attracted considerable attention from researchers in diverse fields. However, rigorous formal study is made difficult by the high level of mobility of pastoralists as well as by the sizable spatio-temporal variability of their environment. This article presents a new computational approach for studying mobile pastoralism that overcomes these issues. Combining multi-temporal satellite images and agent-based modeling allows a comprehensive examination of pastoral resource access over a realistic dryland landscape with unpredictable ecological dynamics. The article demonstrates the analytical potential of this approach through its application to mobile pastoralism in northeast Nigeria. Employing more than 100 satellite images of the area, extensive simulations are conducted under a wide array of circumstances, including different land-use constraints. The simulation results reveal complex dependencies of pastoral resource access on these circumstances along with persistent patterns of seasonal land use observed at the macro level. PMID:26963526

  12. Agent-based models for the emergence and evolution of grammar.

    PubMed

    Steels, Luc

    2016-08-19

    Human languages are extraordinarily complex adaptive systems. They feature intricate hierarchical sound structures, are able to express elaborate meanings and use sophisticated syntactic and semantic structures to relate sound to meaning. What are the cognitive mechanisms that speakers and listeners need to create and sustain such a remarkable system? What is the collective evolutionary dynamics that allows a language to self-organize, become more complex and adapt to changing challenges in expressive power? This paper focuses on grammar. It presents a basic cycle observed in the historical language record, whereby meanings move from lexical to syntactic and then to a morphological mode of expression before returning to a lexical mode, and discusses how we can discover and validate mechanisms that can cause these shifts using agent-based models.This article is part of the themed issue 'The major synthetic evolutionary transitions'. PMID:27431525

  13. Agent-based modeling of a multi-room multi-floor building emergency evacuation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ha, Vi; Lykotrafitis, George

    2012-04-01

    Panic during emergency building evacuation can cause crowd stampede, resulting in serious injuries and casualties. Agent-based methods have been successfully employed to investigate the collective human behavior during emergency evacuation in cases where the configurational space is extremely simple-usually one rectangular room-but not in evacuations of multi-room or multi-floor buildings. This implies that the effect of the complexity of building architecture on the collective behavior of the agents during evacuation has not been fully investigated. Here, we employ a system of self-moving particles whose motion is governed by the social-force model to investigate the effect of complex building architecture on the uncoordinated crowd motion during urgent evacuation. In particular, we study how the room door size, the size of the main exit, the desired speed and the friction coefficient affect the evacuation time and under what circumstances the evacuation efficiency improves.

  14. An Agent-Based Labor Market Simulation with Endogenous Skill-Demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gemkow, S.

    This paper considers an agent-based labor market simulation to examine the influence of skills on wages and unemployment rates. Therefore less and highly skilled workers as well as less and highly productive vacancies are implemented. The skill distribution is exogenous whereas the distribution of the less and highly productive vacancies is endogenous. The different opportunities of the skill groups on the labor market are established by skill requirements. This means that a highly productive vacancy can only be filled by a highly skilled unemployed. Different skill distributions, which can also be interpreted as skill-biased technological change, are simulated by incrementing the skill level of highly skilled persons exogenously. This simulation also provides a microeconomic foundation of the matching function often used in theoretical approaches.

  15. Application of a Boltzmann-entropy-like concept in an agent-based multilane traffic model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sugihakim, Ryan; Alatas, Husin

    2016-01-01

    We discuss the dynamics of an agent-based multilane traffic model using three defined rules. The dynamical characteristics of the model are described by a Boltzmann traffic entropy quantity adopting the concept of Boltzmann entropy in statistical physics. The results are analyzed using fundamental diagrams based on lane density, entropy and its derivative with respect to density. We show that there are three classifications of allowed initial to equilibrium state transition process out of four possibilities and demonstrate that density and entropy fluctuations occur during the transition from the initial to equilibrium states, exhibiting the well-known expected self-organization process. The related concept of entropy can therefore be considered as a new alternative quantity to describe the complexity of traffic dynamics.

  16. Projecting Sexual and Injecting HIV Risks into Future Outcomes with Agent-Based Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bobashev, Georgiy V.; Morris, Robert J.; Zule, William A.

    Longitudinal studies of health outcomes for HIV could be very costly cumbersome and not representative of the risk population. Conversely, cross-sectional approaches could be representative but rely on the retrospective information to estimate prevalence and incidence. We present an Agent-based Modeling (ABM) approach where we use behavioral data from a cross-sectional representative study and project the behavior into the future so that the risks of acquiring HIV could be studied in a dynamical/temporal sense. We show how the blend of behavior and contact network factors (sexual, injecting) play the role in the risk of future HIV acquisition and time till obtaining HIV. We show which subjects are the most likely persons to get HIV in the next year, and whom they are likely to infect. We examine how different behaviors are related to the increase or decrease of HIV risks and how to estimate the quantifiable risk measures such as survival HIV free.

  17. Computational Research on Mobile Pastoralism Using Agent-Based Modeling and Satellite Imagery.

    PubMed

    Sakamoto, Takuto

    2016-01-01

    Dryland pastoralism has long attracted considerable attention from researchers in diverse fields. However, rigorous formal study is made difficult by the high level of mobility of pastoralists as well as by the sizable spatio-temporal variability of their environment. This article presents a new computational approach for studying mobile pastoralism that overcomes these issues. Combining multi-temporal satellite images and agent-based modeling allows a comprehensive examination of pastoral resource access over a realistic dryland landscape with unpredictable ecological dynamics. The article demonstrates the analytical potential of this approach through its application to mobile pastoralism in northeast Nigeria. Employing more than 100 satellite images of the area, extensive simulations are conducted under a wide array of circumstances, including different land-use constraints. The simulation results reveal complex dependencies of pastoral resource access on these circumstances along with persistent patterns of seasonal land use observed at the macro level. PMID:26963526

  18. Method for distributed agent-based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior

    DOEpatents

    Ivezic, Nenad; Potok, Thomas E.

    2004-11-30

    A method for distributed agent based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior on a single-processor computer comprises the steps of: object modeling a manufacturing technique having a plurality of processes; associating a distributed agent with each the process; and, programming each the agent to respond to discrete events corresponding to the manufacturing technique, wherein each discrete event triggers a programmed response. The method can further comprise the step of transmitting the discrete events to each agent in a message loop. In addition, the programming step comprises the step of conditioning each agent to respond to a discrete event selected from the group consisting of a clock tick message, a resources received message, and a request for output production message.

  19. Promoting Conceptual Change for Complex Systems Understanding: Outcomes of an Agent-Based Participatory Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rates, Christopher A.; Mulvey, Bridget K.; Feldon, David F.

    2016-08-01

    Components of complex systems apply across multiple subject areas, and teaching these components may help students build unifying conceptual links. Students, however, often have difficulty learning these components, and limited research exists to understand what types of interventions may best help improve understanding. We investigated 32 high school students' understandings of complex systems components and whether an agent-based simulation could improve their understandings. Pretest and posttest essays were coded for changes in six components to determine whether students showed more expert thinking about the complex system of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Results showed significant improvement for the components Emergence ( r = .26, p = .03), Order ( r = .37, p = .002), and Tradeoffs ( r = .44, p = .001). Implications include that the experiential nature of the simulation has the potential to support conceptual change for some complex systems components, presenting a promising option for complex systems instruction.

  20. Linking MODFLOW with an agent-based land-use model to support decision making.

    PubMed

    Reeves, Howard W; Zellner, Moira L

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey numerical groundwater flow model, MODFLOW, was integrated with an agent-based land-use model to yield a simulator for environmental planning studies. Ultimately, this integrated simulator will be used as a means to organize information, illustrate potential system responses, and facilitate communication within a participatory modeling framework. Initial results show the potential system response to different zoning policy scenarios in terms of the spatial patterns of development, which is referred to as urban form, and consequent impacts on groundwater levels. These results illustrate how the integrated simulator is capable of representing the complexity of the system. From a groundwater modeling perspective, the most important aspect of the integration is that the simulator generates stresses on the groundwater system within the simulation in contrast to the traditional approach that requires the user to specify the stresses through time. PMID:20132323

  1. Health care supply networks in tightly and loosely coupled structures: exploration using agent-based modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanagarajah, A.; Parker, D.; Xu, H.

    2010-03-01

    Health care supply networks are multi-faceted complex structures. This article discusses architecture of complex systems and an agent-based modelling framework to study health care supply networks and their impact on patient safety, economics, and workloads. Here we demonstrate the application of a safety dynamics model proposed by Cook and Rasmussen (2005, '"Going Solid": A Model of System Dynamics and Consequences for Patient Safety', Quality & Safety in Health Care, 14, 67-84.) to study a health care system, using a hypothetical simulation of an emergency department as a representative unit and its dynamic behaviour. By means of simulation, this article demonstrates the non-linear behaviours of a health service unit and its complexities; and how the safety dynamic model may be used to evaluate the various policy and design aspects of health care supply networks.

  2. Brazilian Proposal for Agent-Based Learning Objects Metadata Standard - OBAA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vicari, Rosa Maria; Ribeiro, Alexandre; da Silva, Júlia Marques Carvalho; Santos, Elder Rizzon; Primo, Tiago; Bez, Marta

    This paper presents the Agent Based Learning Objects - OBAA standard proposal. The main goal of the research was to establish a standardized specification of the technical and functional requirements of interoperable learning objects. In our context, interoperability regards the operation of the content inside Web, Digital TV and mobile environments, supporting accessibility and pedagogical issues. In this proposal it has been explored the convergence among the multi-agent systems, learning object and ubiquitous computing technologies, allowing the authoring, storage and recovery of learning object in varied contexts and through different digital platforms. The result of this research was the definition of the OBAA proposal containing the requirements, specifications and architectures that will compose the Brazilian standard for the management, transmission, storage, search, editing and use of interoperable learning object.

  3. Minority persistence in agent based model using information and emotional arousal as control variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    2013-07-01

    We present detailed analysis of the behavior of an agent based model of opinion formation, using a discrete variant of cusp catastrophe behavior of single agents. The agent opinion about a particular issue is determined by its information about the issue and its emotional arousal. It is possible that for agitated agents the same information would lead to different opinions. This results in a nontrivial individual opinion dynamics. The agents communicate via messages, which allows direct application of the model to ICT based communities. We study the dependence of the composition of an agent society on the range of interactions and the rate of emotional arousal. Despite the minimal number of adjustable parameters, the model reproduces several phenomena observed in real societies, for example nearly perfectly balanced results of some highly contested elections or the fact that minorities seldom perceive themselves to be a minority.

  4. Security Analysis of Selected AMI Failure Scenarios Using Agent Based Game Theoretic Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

    2014-01-01

    Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) functional domain which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) working group has currently documented 29 failure scenarios. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain. From these five selected scenarios, we characterize them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.

  5. Linking MODFLOW with an agent-based land-use model to support decision making

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reeves, H.W.; Zellner, M.L.

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey numerical groundwater flow model, MODFLOW, was integrated with an agent-based land-use model to yield a simulator for environmental planning studies. Ultimately, this integrated simulator will be used as a means to organize information, illustrate potential system responses, and facilitate communication within a participatory modeling framework. Initial results show the potential system response to different zoning policy scenarios in terms of the spatial patterns of development, which is referred to as urban form, and consequent impacts on groundwater levels. These results illustrate how the integrated simulator is capable of representing the complexity of the system. From a groundwater modeling perspective, the most important aspect of the integration is that the simulator generates stresses on the groundwater system within the simulation in contrast to the traditional approach that requires the user to specify the stresses through time. Copyright ?? 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation ?? 2010 National Ground Water Association.

  6. GridLAB-D: An Agent-Based Simulation Framework for Smart Grids

    SciTech Connect

    Chassin, David P.; Fuller, Jason C.; Djilali, Ned

    2014-06-23

    Simulation of smart grid technologies requires a fundamentally new approach to integrated modeling of power systems, energy markets, building technologies, and the plethora of other resources and assets that are becoming part of modern electricity production, delivery, and consumption systems. As a result, the US Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity commissioned the development of a new type of power system simulation tool called GridLAB-D that uses an agent-based approach to simulating smart grids. This paper presents the numerical methods and approach to time-series simulation used by GridLAB-D and reviews applications in power system studies, market design, building control system design, and integration of wind power in a smart grid.

  7. AN AGENT-BASED SIMULATION STUDY OF A COMPLEX ADAPTIVE COLLABORATION NETWORK

    SciTech Connect

    Ozmen, Ozgur; Smith, Jeffrey; Yilmaz, Levent

    2013-01-01

    One of the most significant problems in organizational scholarship is to discern how social collectives govern, organize, and coordinate the actions of individuals to achieve collective outcomes. The collectives are usually interpreted as complex adaptive systems (CAS). The understanding of CAS is more likely to arise with the help of computer-based simulations. In this tutorial, using agent-based modeling approach, a complex adaptive social communication network model is introduced. The objective is to present the underlying dynamics of the system in a form of computer simulation that enables analyzing the impacts of various mechanisms on network topologies and emergent behaviors. The ultimate goal is to further our understanding of the dynamics in the system and facilitate developing informed policies for decision-makers.

  8. Re-Examining of Moffitt's Theory of Delinquency through Agent Based Modeling.

    PubMed

    Leaw, Jia Ning; Ang, Rebecca P; Huan, Vivien S; Chan, Wei Teng; Cheong, Siew Ann

    2015-01-01

    Moffitt's theory of delinquency suggests that at-risk youths can be divided into two groups, the adolescence- limited group and the life-course-persistent group, predetermined at a young age, and social interactions between these two groups become important during the adolescent years. We built an agent-based model based on the microscopic interactions Moffitt described: (i) a maturity gap that dictates (ii) the cost and reward of antisocial behavior, and (iii) agents imitating the antisocial behaviors of others more successful than themselves, to find indeed the two groups emerging in our simulations. Moreover, through an intervention simulation where we moved selected agents from one social network to another, we also found that the social network plays an important role in shaping the life course outcome. PMID:26062022

  9. Combining Computational Fluid Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling: A New Approach to Evacuation Planning

    PubMed Central

    Epstein, Joshua M.; Pankajakshan, Ramesh; Hammond, Ross A.

    2011-01-01

    We introduce a novel hybrid of two fields—Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)—as a powerful new technique for urban evacuation planning. CFD is a predominant technique for modeling airborne transport of contaminants, while ABM is a powerful approach for modeling social dynamics in populations of adaptive individuals. The hybrid CFD-ABM method is capable of simulating how large, spatially-distributed populations might respond to a physically realistic contaminant plume. We demonstrate the overall feasibility of CFD-ABM evacuation design, using the case of a hypothetical aerosol release in Los Angeles to explore potential effectiveness of various policy regimes. We conclude by arguing that this new approach can be powerfully applied to arbitrary population centers, offering an unprecedented preparedness and catastrophic event response tool. PMID:21687788

  10. Agent-Based Simulation for Interconnection-Scale Renewable Integration and Demand Response Studies

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Chassin, David P.; Behboodi, Sahand; Crawford, Curran; Djilali, Ned

    2015-12-23

    This paper collects and synthesizes the technical requirements, implementation, and validation methods for quasi-steady agent-based simulations of interconnectionscale models with particular attention to the integration of renewable generation and controllable loads. Approaches for modeling aggregated controllable loads are presented and placed in the same control and economic modeling framework as generation resources for interconnection planning studies. Model performance is examined with system parameters that are typical for an interconnection approximately the size of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) and a control area about 1/100 the size of the system. These results are used to demonstrate and validate the methodsmore » presented.« less

  11. Promoting Conceptual Change for Complex Systems Understanding: Outcomes of an Agent-Based Participatory Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rates, Christopher A.; Mulvey, Bridget K.; Feldon, David F.

    2016-03-01

    Components of complex systems apply across multiple subject areas, and teaching these components may help students build unifying conceptual links. Students, however, often have difficulty learning these components, and limited research exists to understand what types of interventions may best help improve understanding. We investigated 32 high school students' understandings of complex systems components and whether an agent-based simulation could improve their understandings. Pretest and posttest essays were coded for changes in six components to determine whether students showed more expert thinking about the complex system of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Results showed significant improvement for the components Emergence (r = .26, p = .03), Order (r = .37, p = .002), and Tradeoffs (r = .44, p = .001). Implications include that the experiential nature of the simulation has the potential to support conceptual change for some complex systems components, presenting a promising option for complex systems instruction.

  12. A task-oriented modular and agent-based collaborative design mechanism for distributed product development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Jinfei; Chen, Ming; Wang, Lei; Wu, Qidi

    2014-05-01

    The rapid expansion of enterprises makes product collaborative design (PCD) a critical issue under the distributed heterogeneous environment, but as the collaborative task of large-scale network becomes more complicated, neither unified task decomposition and allocation methodology nor Agent-based network management platform can satisfy the increasing demands. In this paper, to meet requirements of PCD for distributed product development, a collaborative design mechanism based on the thought of modularity and the Agent technology is presented. First, the top-down 4-tier process model based on task-oriented modular and Agent is constructed for PCD after analyzing the mapping relationships between requirements and functions in the collaborative design. Second, on basis of sub-task decomposition for PCD based on a mixed method, the mathematic model of task-oriented modular based on multi-objective optimization is established to maximize the module cohesion degree and minimize the module coupling degree, while considering the module executable degree as a restriction. The mathematic model is optimized and simulated by the modified PSO, and the decomposed modules are obtained. Finally, the Agent structure model for collaborative design is put forward, and the optimism matching Agents are selected by using similarity algorithm to implement different task-modules by the integrated reasoning and decision-making mechanism with the behavioral model of collaborative design Agents. With the results of experimental studies for automobile collaborative design, the feasibility and efficiency of this methodology of task-oriented modular and Agent-based collaborative design in the distributed heterogeneous environment are verified. On this basis, an integrative automobile collaborative R&D platform is developed. This research provides an effective platform for automobile manufacturing enterprises to achieve PCD, and helps to promote product numeralization collaborative R&D and

  13. Prediction Markets and Beliefs about Climate: Results from Agent-Based Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilligan, J. M.; John, N. J.; van der Linden, M.

    2015-12-01

    Climate scientists have long been frustrated by persistent doubts a large portion of the public expresses toward the scientific consensus about anthropogenic global warming. The political and ideological polarization of this doubt led Vandenbergh, Raimi, and Gilligan [1] to propose that prediction markets for climate change might influence the opinions of those who mistrust the scientific community but do trust the power of markets.We have developed an agent-based simulation of a climate prediction market in which traders buy and sell future contracts that will pay off at some future year with a value that depends on the global average temperature at that time. The traders form a heterogeneous population with different ideological positions, different beliefs about anthropogenic global warming, and different degrees of risk aversion. We also vary characteristics of the market, including the topology of social networks among the traders, the number of traders, and the completeness of the market. Traders adjust their beliefs about climate according to the gains and losses they and other traders in their social network experience. This model predicts that if global temperature is predominantly driven by greenhouse gas concentrations, prediction markets will cause traders' beliefs to converge toward correctly accepting anthropogenic warming as real. This convergence is largely independent of the structure of the market and the characteristics of the population of traders. However, it may take considerable time for beliefs to converge. Conversely, if temperature does not depend on greenhouse gases, the model predicts that traders' beliefs will not converge. We will discuss the policy-relevance of these results and more generally, the use of agent-based market simulations for policy analysis regarding climate change, seasonal agricultural weather forecasts, and other applications.[1] MP Vandenbergh, KT Raimi, & JM Gilligan. UCLA Law Rev. 61, 1962 (2014).

  14. An agent-based simulation model to study accountable care organizations.

    PubMed

    Liu, Pai; Wu, Shinyi

    2016-03-01

    Creating accountable care organizations (ACOs) has been widely discussed as a strategy to control rapidly rising healthcare costs and improve quality of care; however, building an effective ACO is a complex process involving multiple stakeholders (payers, providers, patients) with their own interests. Also, implementation of an ACO is costly in terms of time and money. Immature design could cause safety hazards. Therefore, there is a need for analytical model-based decision-support tools that can predict the outcomes of different strategies to facilitate ACO design and implementation. In this study, an agent-based simulation model was developed to study ACOs that considers payers, healthcare providers, and patients as agents under the shared saving payment model of care for congestive heart failure (CHF), one of the most expensive causes of sometimes preventable hospitalizations. The agent-based simulation model has identified the critical determinants for the payment model design that can motivate provider behavior changes to achieve maximum financial and quality outcomes of an ACO. The results show nonlinear provider behavior change patterns corresponding to changes in payment model designs. The outcomes vary by providers with different quality or financial priorities, and are most sensitive to the cost-effectiveness of CHF interventions that an ACO implements. This study demonstrates an increasingly important method to construct a healthcare system analytics model that can help inform health policy and healthcare management decisions. The study also points out that the likely success of an ACO is interdependent with payment model design, provider characteristics, and cost and effectiveness of healthcare interventions. PMID:24715674

  15. Evolving Nutritional Strategies in the Presence of Competition: A Geometric Agent-Based Model

    PubMed Central

    Senior, Alistair M.; Charleston, Michael A.; Lihoreau, Mathieu; Buhl, Jerome; Raubenheimer, David; Simpson, Stephen J.

    2015-01-01

    Access to nutrients is a key factor governing development, reproduction and ultimately fitness. Within social groups, contest-competition can fundamentally affect nutrient access, potentially leading to reproductive asymmetry among individuals. Previously, agent-based models have been combined with the Geometric Framework of nutrition to provide insight into how nutrition and social interactions affect one another. Here, we expand this modelling approach by incorporating evolutionary algorithms to explore how contest-competition over nutrient acquisition might affect the evolution of animal nutritional strategies. Specifically, we model tolerance of nutrient excesses and deficits when ingesting nutritionally imbalanced foods, which we term ‘nutritional latitude’; a higher degree of nutritional latitude constitutes a higher tolerance of nutritional excess and deficit. Our results indicate that a transition between two alternative strategies occurs at moderate to high levels of competition. When competition is low, individuals display a low level of nutritional latitude and regularly switch foods in search of an optimum. When food is scarce and contest-competition is intense, high nutritional latitude appears optimal, and individuals continue to consume an imbalanced food for longer periods before attempting to switch to an alternative. However, the relative balance of nutrients within available foods also strongly influences at what levels of competition, if any, transitions between these two strategies occur. Our models imply that competition combined with reproductive skew in social groups can play a role in the evolution of diet breadth. We discuss how the integration of agent-based, nutritional and evolutionary modelling may be applied in future studies to further understand the evolution of nutritional strategies across social and ecological contexts. PMID:25815976

  16. The Evolution of Cooperation in Managed Groundwater Systems: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castilla Rho, J. C.; Mariethoz, G.; Rojas, R. F.; Andersen, M. S.; Kelly, B. F.; Holley, C.

    2014-12-01

    Human interactions with groundwater systems often exhibit complex features that hinder the sustainable management of the resource. This leads to costly and persistent conflicts over groundwater at the catchment scale. One possible way to address these conflicts is by gaining a better understanding of how social and groundwater dynamics coevolve using agent-based models (ABM). Such models allow exploring 'bottom-up' solutions (i.e., self-organised governance systems), where the behaviour of individual agents (e.g., farmers) results in the emergence of mutual cooperation among groundwater users. There is significant empirical evidence indicating that this kind of 'bottom-up' approach may lead to more enduring and sustainable outcomes, compared to conventional 'top-down' strategies such as centralized control and water right schemes (Ostrom 1990). New modelling tools are needed to study these concepts systematically and efficiently. Our model uses a conceptual framework to study cooperation and the emergence of social norms as initially proposed by Axelrod (1986), which we adapted to groundwater management. We developed an ABM that integrates social mechanisms and the physics of subsurface flow. The model explicitly represents feedback between groundwater conditions and social dynamics, capturing the spatial structure of these interactions and the potential effects on cooperation levels in an agricultural setting. Using this model, we investigate a series of mechanisms that may trigger norms supporting cooperative strategies, which can be sustained and become stable over time. For example, farmers in a self-monitoring community can be more efficient at achieving the objective of sustainable groundwater use than government-imposed regulation. Our coupled model thus offers a platform for testing new schemes promoting cooperation and improved resource use, which can be used as a basis for policy design. Importantly, we hope to raise awareness of agent-based modelling as

  17. Estimating Impacts of Climate Change Policy on Land Use: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Agriculture is important to New Zealand’s economy. Like other primary producers, New Zealand strives to increase agricultural output while maintaining environmental integrity. Utilising modelling to explore the economic, environmental and land use impacts of policy is critical to understand the likely effects on the sector. Key deficiencies within existing land use and land cover change models are the lack of heterogeneity in farmers and their behaviour, the role that social networks play in information transfer, and the abstraction of the global and regional economic aspects within local-scale approaches. To resolve these issues we developed the Agent-based Rural Land Use New Zealand model. The model utilises a partial equilibrium economic model and an agent-based decision-making framework to explore how the cumulative effects of individual farmer’s decisions affect farm conversion and the resulting land use at a catchment scale. The model is intended to assist in the development of policy to shape agricultural land use intensification in New Zealand. We illustrate the model, by modelling the impact of a greenhouse gas price on farm-level land use, net revenue, and environmental indicators such as nutrient losses and soil erosion for key enterprises in the Hurunui and Waiau catchments of North Canterbury in New Zealand. Key results from the model show that farm net revenue is estimated to increase over time regardless of the greenhouse gas price. Net greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to decline over time, even under a no GHG price baseline, due to an expansion of forestry on low productivity land. Higher GHG prices provide a greater net reduction of emissions. While social and geographic network effects have minimal impact on net revenue and environmental outputs for the catchment, they do have an effect on the spatial arrangement of land use and in particular the clustering of enterprises. PMID:25996591

  18. Holistic flood risk assessment using agent-based modelling: the case of Sint Maarten Island

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abayneh Abebe, Yared; Vojinovic, Zoran; Nikolic, Igor; Hammond, Michael; Sanchez, Arlex; Pelling, Mark

    2015-04-01

    Floods in coastal regions are regarded as one of the most dangerous and harmful disasters. Though commonly referred to as natural disasters, coastal floods are also attributable to various social, economic, historical and political issues. Rapid urbanisation in coastal areas combined with climate change and poor governance can lead to a significant increase in the risk of pluvial flooding coinciding with fluvial and coastal flooding posing a greater risk of devastation in coastal communities. Disasters that can be triggered by hydro-meteorological events are interconnected and interrelated with both human activities and natural processes. They, therefore, require holistic approaches to help understand their complexity in order to design and develop adaptive risk management approaches that minimise social and economic losses and environmental impacts, and increase resilience to such events. Being located in the North Atlantic Ocean, Sint Maarten is frequently subjected to hurricanes. In addition, the stormwater catchments and streams on Sint Maarten have several unique characteristics that contribute to the severity of flood-related impacts. Urban environments are usually situated in low-lying areas, with little consideration for stormwater drainage, and as such are subject to flash flooding. Hence, Sint Maarten authorities drafted policies to minimise the risk of flood-related disasters on the island. In this study, an agent-based model is designed and applied to understand the implications of introduced policies and regulations, and to understand how different actors' behaviours influence the formation, propagation and accumulation of flood risk. The agent-based model built for this study is based on the MAIA meta-model, which helps to decompose, structure and conceptualize socio-technical systems with an agent-oriented perspective, and is developed using the NetLogo simulation environment. The agents described in this model are households and businesses, and

  19. Application of agent-based system for bioprocess description and process improvement.

    PubMed

    Gao, Ying; Kipling, Katie; Glassey, Jarka; Willis, Mark; Montague, Gary; Zhou, Yuhong; Titchener-Hooker, Nigel J

    2010-01-01

    Modeling plays an important role in bioprocess development for design and scale-up. Predictive models can also be used in biopharmaceutical manufacturing to assist decision-making either to maintain process consistency or to identify optimal operating conditions. To predict the whole bioprocess performance, the strong interactions present in a processing sequence must be adequately modeled. Traditionally, bioprocess modeling considers process units separately, which makes it difficult to capture the interactions between units. In this work, a systematic framework is developed to analyze the bioprocesses based on a whole process understanding and considering the interactions between process operations. An agent-based approach is adopted to provide a flexible infrastructure for the necessary integration of process models. This enables the prediction of overall process behavior, which can then be applied during process development or once manufacturing has commenced, in both cases leading to the capacity for fast evaluation of process improvement options. The multi-agent system comprises a process knowledge base, process models, and a group of functional agents. In this system, agent components co-operate with each other in performing their tasks. These include the description of the whole process behavior, evaluating process operating conditions, monitoring of the operating processes, predicting critical process performance, and providing guidance to decision-making when coping with process deviations. During process development, the system can be used to evaluate the design space for process operation. During manufacture, the system can be applied to identify abnormal process operation events and then to provide suggestions as to how best to cope with the deviations. In all cases, the function of the system is to ensure an efficient manufacturing process. The implementation of the agent-based approach is illustrated via selected application scenarios, which

  20. Excellent approach to modeling urban expansion by fuzzy cellular automata: agent base model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khajavigodellou, Yousef; Alesheikh, Ali A.; Mohammed, Abdulrazak A. S.; Chapi, Kamran

    2014-09-01

    Recently, the interaction between humans and their environment is the one of important challenges in the world. Landuse/ cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. The complexity and dynamics of urban systems make the applicable practice of urban modeling very difficult. With the increased computational power and the greater availability of spatial data, micro-simulation such as the agent based and cellular automata simulation methods, has been developed by geographers, planners, and scholars, and it has shown great potential for representing and simulating the complexity of the dynamic processes involved in urban growth and land use change. This paper presents Fuzzy Cellular Automata in Geospatial Information System and remote Sensing to simulated and predicted urban expansion pattern. These FCA-based dynamic spatial urban models provide an improved ability to forecast and assess future urban growth and to create planning scenarios, allowing us to explore the potential impacts of simulations that correspond to urban planning and management policies. A fuzzy inference guided cellular automata approach. Semantic or linguistic knowledge on Land use change is expressed as fuzzy rules, based on which fuzzy inference is applied to determine the urban development potential for each pixel. The model integrates an ABM (agent-based model) and FCA (Fuzzy Cellular Automata) to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Based on this model rapid development and green land protection under the influences of the behaviors and decision modes of regional authority agents, real estate developer agents, resident agents and non- resident agents and their interactions have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Erbil metropolitan region.

  1. Agent-Based Model with Asymmetric Trading and Herding for Complex Financial Systems

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Jun-Jie; Zheng, Bo; Tan, Lei

    2013-01-01

    Background For complex financial systems, the negative and positive return-volatility correlations, i.e., the so-called leverage and anti-leverage effects, are particularly important for the understanding of the price dynamics. However, the microscopic origination of the leverage and anti-leverage effects is still not understood, and how to produce these effects in agent-based modeling remains open. On the other hand, in constructing microscopic models, it is a promising conception to determine model parameters from empirical data rather than from statistical fitting of the results. Methods To study the microscopic origination of the return-volatility correlation in financial systems, we take into account the individual and collective behaviors of investors in real markets, and construct an agent-based model. The agents are linked with each other and trade in groups, and particularly, two novel microscopic mechanisms, i.e., investors’ asymmetric trading and herding in bull and bear markets, are introduced. Further, we propose effective methods to determine the key parameters in our model from historical market data. Results With the model parameters determined for six representative stock-market indices in the world, respectively, we obtain the corresponding leverage or anti-leverage effect from the simulation, and the effect is in agreement with the empirical one on amplitude and duration. At the same time, our model produces other features of the real markets, such as the fat-tail distribution of returns and the long-term correlation of volatilities. Conclusions We reveal that for the leverage and anti-leverage effects, both the investors’ asymmetric trading and herding are essential generation mechanisms. Among the six markets, however, the investors’ trading is approximately symmetric for the five markets which exhibit the leverage effect, thus contributing very little. These two microscopic mechanisms and the methods for the determination of the key

  2. Learning Natural Selection in 4th Grade with Multi-Agent-Based Computational Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dickes, Amanda Catherine; Sengupta, Pratim

    2013-06-01

    In this paper, we investigate how elementary school students develop multi-level explanations of population dynamics in a simple predator-prey ecosystem, through scaffolded interactions with a multi-agent-based computational model (MABM). The term "agent" in an MABM indicates individual computational objects or actors (e.g., cars), and these agents obey simple rules assigned or manipulated by the user (e.g., speeding up, slowing down, etc.). It is the interactions between these agents, based on the rules assigned by the user, that give rise to emergent, aggregate-level behavior (e.g., formation and movement of the traffic jam). Natural selection is such an emergent phenomenon, which has been shown to be challenging for novices (K16 students) to understand. Whereas prior research on learning evolutionary phenomena with MABMs has typically focused on high school students and beyond, we investigate how elementary students (4th graders) develop multi-level explanations of some introductory aspects of natural selection—species differentiation and population change—through scaffolded interactions with an MABM that simulates predator-prey dynamics in a simple birds-butterflies ecosystem. We conducted a semi-clinical interview based study with ten participants, in which we focused on the following: a) identifying the nature of learners' initial interpretations of salient events or elements of the represented phenomena, b) identifying the roles these interpretations play in the development of their multi-level explanations, and c) how attending to different levels of the relevant phenomena can make explicit different mechanisms to the learners. In addition, our analysis also shows that although there were differences between high- and low-performing students (in terms of being able to explain population-level behaviors) in the pre-test, these differences disappeared in the post-test.

  3. Running Training, Instruction on Running Technique, and Running Economy in 10-year-old Males.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Petray, Clayre K.; Krahenbuhl, Gary S.

    1985-01-01

    This study attempted to determine the effects of running training, instruction on running techniques, or a combination of instruction and training on the running economy of 10-year-old children. No significant alterations in running economy or technique were produced as a result of the various regimens. (Author/MT)

  4. Preventing banking and check fraud.

    PubMed

    Sagner, J S

    1994-11-01

    Most banking fraud involves disbursement activity which, by its nature, necessitates access to an organization's bank account. Banking fraud can be prevented by employing several internal controls and by using various banking products. PMID:10146100

  5. Examining the impact of larval source management and insecticide-treated nets using a spatial agent-based model of Anopheles gambiae and a landscape generator tool

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Agent-based models (ABMs) have been used to estimate the effects of malaria-control interventions. Early studies have shown the efficacy of larval source management (LSM) and insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) as vector-control interventions, applied both in isolation and in combination. However, the robustness of results can be affected by several important modelling assumptions, including the type of boundary used for landscapes, and the number of replicated simulation runs reported in results. Selection of the ITN coverage definition may also affect the predictive findings. Hence, by replication, independent verification of prior findings of published models bears special importance. Methods A spatially-explicit entomological ABM of Anopheles gambiae is used to simulate the resource-seeking process of mosquitoes in grid-based landscapes. To explore LSM and replicate results of an earlier LSM study, the original landscapes and scenarios are replicated by using a landscape generator tool, and 1,800 replicated simulations are run using absorbing and non-absorbing boundaries. To explore ITNs and evaluate the relative impacts of the different ITN coverage schemes, the settings of an earlier ITN study are replicated, the coverage schemes are defined and simulated, and 9,000 replicated simulations for three ITN parameters (coverage, repellence and mortality) are run. To evaluate LSM and ITNs in combination, landscapes with varying densities of houses and human populations are generated, and 12,000 simulations are run. Results General agreement with an earlier LSM study is observed when an absorbing boundary is used. However, using a non-absorbing boundary produces significantly different results, which may be attributed to the unrealistic killing effect of an absorbing boundary. Abundance cannot be completely suppressed by removing aquatic habitats within 300 m of houses. Also, with density-dependent oviposition, removal of insufficient number of aquatic

  6. Run II luminosity progress

    SciTech Connect

    Gollwitzer, K.; /Fermilab

    2007-06-01

    The Fermilab Tevatron Collider Run II program continues at the energy and luminosity frontier of high energy particle physics. To the collider experiments CDF and D0, over 3 fb{sup -1} of integrated luminosity has been delivered to each. Upgrades and improvements in the Antiproton Source of the production and collection of antiprotons have led to increased number of particles stored in the Recycler. Electron cooling and associated improvements have help make a brighter antiproton beam at collisions. Tevatron improvements to handle the increased number of particles and the beam lifetimes have resulted in an increase in luminosity.

  7. Banking on the Internet.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Internet Research, 1996

    1996-01-01

    Electronic ground was broken in 1995 with the development of the completely Internet-based bank Security First Network Bank. This article discusses the need for developing online services, outlines the reasons for the formation of an Internet-based bank and argues that to remain competitive financial services providers must provide easier customer…

  8. Commercial Banking Industry Survey.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bright Horizons Children's Centers, Cambridge, MA.

    Work and family programs are becoming increasingly important in the commercial banking industry. The objective of this survey was to collect information and prepare a commercial banking industry profile on work and family programs. Fifty-nine top American commercial banks from the Fortune 500 list were invited to participate. Twenty-two…

  9. 198. SPOUT RUN ARCH BRIDGE AND SPOUT RUN WESTBOUND BRIDGE ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    198. SPOUT RUN ARCH BRIDGE AND SPOUT RUN WESTBOUND BRIDGE FROM POTOMAC RIVER LOOKING SOUTHWEST. - George Washington Memorial Parkway, Along Potomac River from McLean to Mount Vernon, VA, Mount Vernon, Fairfax County, VA

  10. PDU Run 10

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-09-01

    PDU Run 10, a 46-day H-Coal syncrude mode operation using Wyodak coal, successfully met all targeted objectives, and was the longest PDU operation to date in this program. Targeted coal conversion of 90 W % was exceeded with a C/sub 4/-975/sup 0/F distillate yield of 43 to 48 W %. Amocat 1A catalyst was qualified for Pilot Plant operation based on improved operation and superior performance. PDU 10 achieved improved yields and lower hydrogen consumption compared to PDU 6, a similar operation. High hydroclone efficiency and high solids content in the vacuum still were maintained throughout the run. Steady operations at lower oil/solids ratios were demonstrated. Microautoclave testing was introduced as an operational aid. Four additional studies were successfully completed during PDU 10. These included a catalyst tracer study in conjunction with Sandia Laboratories; tests on letdown valve trims for Battelle; a fluid dynamics study with Amoco; and special high-pressure liquid sampling.

  11. Evaluation of wholesale electric power market rules and financial risk management by agent-based simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Nanpeng

    As U.S. regional electricity markets continue to refine their market structures, designs and rules of operation in various ways, two critical issues are emerging. First, although much experience has been gained and costly and valuable lessons have been learned, there is still a lack of a systematic platform for evaluation of the impact of a new market design from both engineering and economic points of view. Second, the transition from a monopoly paradigm characterized by a guaranteed rate of return to a competitive market created various unfamiliar financial risks for various market participants, especially for the Investor Owned Utilities (IOUs) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). This dissertation uses agent-based simulation methods to tackle the market rules evaluation and financial risk management problems. The California energy crisis in 2000-01 showed what could happen to an electricity market if it did not go through a comprehensive and rigorous testing before its implementation. Due to the complexity of the market structure, strategic interaction between the participants, and the underlying physics, it is difficult to fully evaluate the implications of potential changes to market rules. This dissertation presents a flexible and integrative method to assess market designs through agent-based simulations. Realistic simulation scenarios on a 225-bus system are constructed for evaluation of the proposed PJM-like market power mitigation rules of the California electricity market. Simulation results show that in the absence of market power mitigation, generation company (GenCo) agents facilitated by Q-learning are able to exploit the market flaws and make significantly higher profits relative to the competitive benchmark. The incorporation of PJM-like local market power mitigation rules is shown to be effective in suppressing the exercise of market power. The importance of financial risk management is exemplified by the recent financial crisis. In this

  12. Coupled agent-based and finite-element models for predicting scar structure following myocardial infarction.

    PubMed

    Rouillard, Andrew D; Holmes, Jeffrey W

    2014-08-01

    Following myocardial infarction, damaged muscle is gradually replaced by collagenous scar tissue. The structural and mechanical properties of the scar are critical determinants of heart function, as well as the risk of serious post-infarction complications such as infarct rupture, infarct expansion, and progression to dilated heart failure. A number of therapeutic approaches currently under development aim to alter infarct mechanics in order to reduce complications, such as implantation of mechanical restraint devices, polymer injection, and peri-infarct pacing. Because mechanical stimuli regulate scar remodeling, the long-term consequences of therapies that alter infarct mechanics must be carefully considered. Computational models have the potential to greatly improve our ability to understand and predict how such therapies alter heart structure, mechanics, and function over time. Toward this end, we developed a straightforward method for coupling an agent-based model of scar formation to a finite-element model of tissue mechanics, creating a multi-scale model that captures the dynamic interplay between mechanical loading, scar deformation, and scar material properties. The agent-based component of the coupled model predicts how fibroblasts integrate local chemical, structural, and mechanical cues as they deposit and remodel collagen, while the finite-element component predicts local mechanics at any time point given the current collagen fiber structure and applied loads. We used the coupled model to explore the balance between increasing stiffness due to collagen deposition and increasing wall stress due to infarct thinning and left ventricular dilation during the normal time course of healing in myocardial infarcts, as well as the negative feedback between strain anisotropy and the structural anisotropy it promotes in healing scar. The coupled model reproduced the observed evolution of both collagen fiber structure and regional deformation following coronary

  13. An agent-based approach for modeling dynamics of contagious disease spread

    PubMed Central

    Perez, Liliana; Dragicevic, Suzana

    2009-01-01

    Background The propagation of communicable diseases through a population is an inherent spatial and temporal process of great importance for modern society. For this reason a spatially explicit epidemiologic model of infectious disease is proposed for a greater understanding of the disease's spatial diffusion through a network of human contacts. Objective The objective of this study is to develop an agent-based modelling approach the integrates geographic information systems (GIS) to simulate the spread of a communicable disease in an urban environment, as a result of individuals' interactions in a geospatial context. Methods The methodology for simulating spatiotemporal dynamics of communicable disease propagation is presented and the model is implemented using measles outbreak in an urban environment as a case study. Individuals in a closed population are explicitly represented by agents associated to places where they interact with other agents. They are endowed with mobility, through a transportation network allowing them to move between places within the urban environment, in order to represent the spatial heterogeneity and the complexity involved in infectious diseases diffusion. The model is implemented on georeferenced land use dataset from Metro Vancouver and makes use of census data sets from Statistics Canada for the municipality of Burnaby, BC, Canada study site. Results The results provide insights into the application of the model to calculate ratios of susceptible/infected in specific time frames and urban environments, due to its ability to depict the disease progression based on individuals' interactions. It is demonstrated that the dynamic spatial interactions within the population lead to high numbers of exposed individuals who perform stationary activities in areas after they have finished commuting. As a result, the sick individuals are concentrated in geographical locations like schools and universities. Conclusion The GIS-agent based model

  14. Using simple agent-based modeling to inform and enhance neighborhood walkability

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Pedestrian-friendly neighborhoods with proximal destinations and services encourage walking and decrease car dependence, thereby contributing to more active and healthier communities. Proximity to key destinations and services is an important aspect of the urban design decision making process, particularly in areas adopting a transit-oriented development (TOD) approach to urban planning, whereby densification occurs within walking distance of transit nodes. Modeling destination access within neighborhoods has been limited to circular catchment buffers or more sophisticated network-buffers generated using geoprocessing routines within geographical information systems (GIS). Both circular and network-buffer catchment methods are problematic. Circular catchment models do not account for street networks, thus do not allow exploratory ‘what-if’ scenario modeling; and network-buffering functionality typically exists within proprietary GIS software, which can be costly and requires a high level of expertise to operate. Methods This study sought to overcome these limitations by developing an open-source simple agent-based walkable catchment tool that can be used by researchers, urban designers, planners, and policy makers to test scenarios for improving neighborhood walkable catchments. A simplified version of an agent-based model was ported to a vector-based open source GIS web tool using data derived from the Australian Urban Research Infrastructure Network (AURIN). The tool was developed and tested with end-user stakeholder working group input. Results The resulting model has proven to be effective and flexible, allowing stakeholders to assess and optimize the walkability of neighborhood catchments around actual or potential nodes of interest (e.g., schools, public transport stops). Users can derive a range of metrics to compare different scenarios modeled. These include: catchment area versus circular buffer ratios; mean number of streets crossed; and

  15. Dynamics of bloggers’ communities: Bipartite networks from empirical data and agent-based modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitrović, Marija; Tadić, Bosiljka

    2012-11-01

    We present an analysis of the empirical data and the agent-based modeling of the emotional behavior of users on the Web portals where the user interaction is mediated by posted comments, like Blogs and Diggs. We consider the dataset of discussion-driven popular Diggs, in which all comments are screened by machine-learning emotion detection in the text, to determine positive and negative valence (attractiveness and aversiveness) of each comment. By mapping the data onto a suitable bipartite network, we perform an analysis of the network topology and the related time-series of the emotional comments. The agent-based model is then introduced to simulate the dynamics and to capture the emergence of the emotional behaviors and communities. The agents are linked to posts on a bipartite network, whose structure evolves through their actions on the posts. The emotional states (arousal and valence) of each agent fluctuate in time, subject to the current contents of the posts to which the agent is exposed. By an agent’s action on a post its current emotions are transferred to the post. The model rules and the key parameters are inferred from the considered empirical data to ensure their realistic values and mutual consistency. The model assumes that the emotional arousal over posts drives the agent’s action. The simulations are preformed for the case of constant flux of agents and the results are analyzed in full analogy with the empirical data. The main conclusions are that the emotion-driven dynamics leads to long-range temporal correlations and emergent networks with community structure, that are comparable with the ones in the empirical system of popular posts. In view of pure emotion-driven agents actions, this type of comparisons provide a quantitative measure for the role of emotions in the dynamics on real blogs. Furthermore, the model reveals the underlying mechanisms which relate the post popularity with the emotion dynamics and the prevalence of negative

  16. Evolutionary Agent-based Models to design distributed water management strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Reed, P. M.

    2012-12-01

    There is growing awareness in the scientific community that the traditional centralized approach to water resources management, as described in much of the water resources literature, provides an ideal optimal solution, which is certainly useful to quantify the best physically achievable performance, but is generally inapplicable. Most real world water resources management problems are indeed characterized by the presence of multiple, distributed and institutionally-independent decision-makers. Multi-Agent Systems provide a potentially more realistic alternative framework to model multiple and self-interested decision-makers in a credible context. Each decision-maker can be represented by an agent who, being self-interested, acts according to local objective functions and produces negative externalities on system level objectives. Different levels of coordination can potentially be included in the framework by designing coordination mechanisms to drive the current decision-making structure toward the global system efficiency. Yet, the identification of effective coordination strategies can be particularly complex in modern institutional contexts and current practice is dependent on largely ad-hoc coordination strategies. In this work we propose a novel Evolutionary Agent-based Modeling (EAM) framework that enables a mapping of fully uncoordinated and centrally coordinated solutions into their relative "many-objective" tradeoffs using multiobjective evolutionary algorithms. Then, by analysing the conflicts between local individual agent and global system level objectives it is possible to more fully understand the causes, consequences, and potential solution strategies for coordination failures. Game-theoretic criteria have value for identifying the most interesting alternatives from a policy making point of view as well as the coordination mechanisms that can be applied to obtain these interesting solutions. The proposed approach is numerically tested on a

  17. Comparing administered and market-based water allocation systems using an agent-based modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, J.; Cai, X.; Wang, Z.

    2009-12-01

    It also has been well recognized that market-based systems can have significant advantages over administered systems for water allocation. However there are not many successful water markets around the world yet and administered systems exist commonly in water allocation management practice. This paradox has been under discussion for decades and still calls for attention for both research and practice. This paper explores some insights for the paradox and tries to address why market systems have not been widely implemented for water allocation. Adopting the theory of agent-based system we develop a consistent analytical model to interpret both systems. First we derive some theorems based on the analytical model, with respect to the necessary conditions for economic efficiency of water allocation. Following that the agent-based model is used to illustrate the coherence and difference between administered and market-based systems. The two systems are compared from three aspects: 1) the driving forces acting on the system state, 2) system efficiency, and 3) equity. Regarding economic efficiency, penalty on the violation of water use permits (or rights) under an administered system can lead to system-wide economic efficiency, as well as being acceptable by some agents, which follows the theory of the so-call rational violation. Ideal equity will be realized if penalty equals incentive with an administered system and if transaction costs are zero with a market system. The performances of both agents and the over system are explained with an administered system and market system, respectively. The performances of agents are subject to different mechanisms of interactions between agents under the two systems. The system emergency (i.e., system benefit, equilibrium market price, etc), resulting from the performance at the agent level, reflects the different mechanism of the two systems, the “invisible hand” with the market system and administrative measures (penalty

  18. Does Addiction Run in Families?

    MedlinePlus

    ... runs in some families. Addiction runs in ours." Matt's family has a history of addiction. He realizes ... may be more likely to become addicted. Read Matt's story About the National Institute on Drug Abuse ( ...

  19. The Running Athlete

    PubMed Central

    Henning, P. Troy

    2014-01-01

    Context: Pelvic stress fractures, osteitis pubis, and snapping hip syndrome account for a portion of the overuse injuries that can occur in the running athlete. Evidence Acquisition: PubMed searches were performed for each entity using the following keywords: snapping hip syndrome, coxa sultans, pelvic stress fracture, and osteitis pubis from 2008 to 2013. Topic reviews, case reports, case series, and randomized trials were included for review. Study Design: Clinical review. Level of Evidence: Level 4. Results: Collectively, 188 articles were identified. Of these, 58 were included in this review. Conclusion: Based on the available evidence, the majority of these overuse injuries can be managed non-operatively. Primary treatment should include removal from offending activity, normalizing regional muscle strength/length imbalances and nutritional deficiencies, and mitigating training errors through proper education of the athlete and training staff. Strength of Recommendation Taxonomy: C PMID:24587861

  20. Why Does My Nose Run?

    MedlinePlus

    ... Homework? Here's Help White House Lunch Recipes Why Does My Nose Run? KidsHealth > For Kids > Why Does My Nose Run? Print A A A Text ... smell, you must be upside down! But why does your nose run? Read on to find out ...

  1. Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis in an agent-based model of Leishmania major infection

    PubMed Central

    Jones, Douglas E.; Dorman, Karin S.

    2009-01-01

    Computer models of disease take a systems biology approach toward understanding host-pathogen interactions. In particular, data driven computer model calibration is the basis for inference of immunological and pathogen parameters, assessment of model validity, and comparison between alternative models of immune or pathogen behavior. In this paper we describe the calibration and analysis of an agent-based model of Leishmania major infection. A model of macrophage loss following uptake of necrotic tissue is proposed to explain macrophage depletion following peak infection. Using Gaussian processes to approximate the computer code, we perform a sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters and to characterize their influence on the simulated infection. The analysis indicates that increasing growth rate can favor or suppress pathogen loads, depending on the infection stage and the pathogen’s ability to avoid detection. Subsequent calibration of the model against previously published biological observations suggests that L. major has a relatively slow growth rate and can replicate for an extended period of time before damaging the host cell. PMID:19837088

  2. The Influence of Seasonal Forecast Accuracy on Farmer Behavior: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobi, J. H.; Nay, J.; Gilligan, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Seasonal climates dictate the livelihoods of farmers in developing countries. While farmers in developed countries often have seasonal forecasts on which to base their cropping decisions, developing world farmers usually make plans for the season without such information. Climate change increases the seasonal uncertainty, making things more difficult for farmers. Providing seasonal forecasts to these farmers is seen as a way to help buffer these typically marginal groups from the effects of climate change, though how to do so and the efficacy of such an effort is still uncertain. In Sri Lanka, an effort is underway to provide such forecasts to farmers. The accuracy of these forecasts is likely to have large impacts on how farmers accept and respond to the information they receive. We present an agent-based model to explore how the accuracy of seasonal rainfall forecasts affects the growing decisions and behavior of farmers in Sri Lanka. Using a decision function based on prospect theory, this model simulates farmers' behavior in the face of a wet, dry, or normal forecast. Farmers can either choose to grow paddy rice or plant a cash crop. Prospect theory is used to evaluate outcomes of the growing season; the farmer's memory of the level of success under a certain set of conditions affects next season's decision. Results from this study have implications for policy makers and seasonal forecasters.

  3. iMuseumA: An Agent-Based Context-Aware Intelligent Museum System

    PubMed Central

    Ayala, Inmaculada; Amor, Mercedes; Pinto, Mónica; Fuentes, Lidia; Gámez, Nadia

    2014-01-01

    Currently, museums provide their visitors with interactive tour guide applications that can be installed in mobile devices and provide timely tailor-made multimedia information about exhibits on display. In this paper, we argue that mobile devices not only could provide help to visitors, but also to museum staff. Our goal is to integrate, within the same system, multimedia tour guides with the management facilities required by museums. In this paper, we present iMuseumA (intelligent museum with agents), a mobile-based solution to customize visits and perform context-aware management tasks. iMuseumA follows an agent-based approach, which makes it possible to interact easily with the museum environment and make decisions based on its current status. This system is currently deployed in the Museum of Informatics at the Informatics School of the University of Málaga, and its main contributions are: (i) a mobile application that provides management facilities to museum staff by means of sensing and processing environmental data; (ii) providing an integrated solution for visitors, tour guides and museum staff that allows coordination and communication enrichment among different groups of users; (iii) using and benefiting from group communication for heterogeneous groups of users that can be created on demand. PMID:25390409

  4. An Exploratory Study of the Butterfly Effect Using Agent-Based Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Khasawneh, Mahmoud T.; Zhang, Jun; Shearer, Nevan E. N.; Rodriquez-Velasquez, Elkin; Bowling, Shannon R.

    2010-01-01

    This paper provides insights about the behavior of chaotic complex systems, and the sensitive dependence of the system on the initial starting conditions. How much does a small change in the initial conditions of a complex system affect it in the long term? Do complex systems exhibit what is called the "Butterfly Effect"? This paper uses an agent-based modeling approach to address these questions. An existing model from NetLogo library was extended in order to compare chaotic complex systems with near-identical initial conditions. Results show that small changes in initial starting conditions can have a huge impact on the behavior of chaotic complex systems. The term the "butterfly effect" is attributed to the work of Edward Lorenz [1]. It is used to describe the sensitive dependence of the behavior of chaotic complex systems on the initial conditions of these systems. The metaphor refers to the notion that a butterfly flapping its wings somewhere may cause extreme changes in the ecological system's behavior in the future, such as a hurricane.

  5. An agent-based model of dune interactions produces the emergence of patterns in deserts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    GéNois, Mathieu; Pont, Sylvain Courrech; Hersen, Pascal; GréGoire, Guillaume

    2013-08-01

    Crescent-shaped barchan dunes are highly mobile dunes which are ubiquitous on Earth and other solar system bodies. Although they are unstable when considered separately, they form large assemblies in deserts and spatially organize in narrow corridors that extend in the wind direction. Collision of barchans has been proposed as a mechanism to redistribute sand between dunes and prevent the formation of very large dunes. Here we use an agent-based model with elementary rules of sand redistribution during collisions to access the full dynamics of very large barchan fields. We tune the dune field density by changing the sand load/lost ratio and follow the transition between dilute fields, where barchans barely interact, and dense fields, where dune collisions control and stabilize the dune field. In this dense regime, barchans have a small, well-selected size and form flocks: the dune field self-organizes in narrow corridors of dunes, as it is observed in real dense barchan deserts.

  6. An agent-based model of dune interactions produces the emergence of patterns in deserts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Génois, M.; Courrech Du Pont, S.

    2013-12-01

    Crescent-shaped barchan dunes are highly mobile dunes which are ubiquitous on Earth and other solar system bodies. Although they are unstable when considered separately, they form large assemblies in deserts and spatially organize in narrow corridors that extend in the wind direction. Collision of barchans has been proposed as a mechanism to redistribute sand between dunes and prevent the formation of very large dunes. Here, we use an agent-based model with elementary rules of sand redistribution during collisions to access the full dynamics of very large barchan fields. We tune the dune field density by changing the sand load/lost ratio and follow the transition between dilute fields, where barchans barely interact, and dense fields, where dune collisions control and stabilize the dune field. In this dense regime, barchans have a small, well selected size and form flocks: the dune field self-organizes in narrow corridors of dunes, as it is observed in real dense barchan deserts. Simulated dense barchan field, with spatial structuring along the wind direction.

  7. Distributed Multi-Agent-Based Protection Scheme for Transient Stability Enhancement in Power Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahman, M. S.; Mahmud, M. A.; Pota, H. R.; Hossain, M. J.; Orchi, T. F.

    2015-04-01

    This paper presents a new distributed agent-based scheme to enhance the transient stability of power systems by maintaining phase angle cohesiveness of interconnected generators through proper relay coordination with critical clearing time (CCT) information. In this distributed multi-agent infrastructure, intelligent agents represent various physical device models to provide dynamic information and energy flow among different physical processes of power systems. The agents can communicate with each other in a distributed manner with a final aim to control circuit breakers (CBs) with CCT information as this is the key issue for maintaining and enhancing the transient stability of power systems. The performance of the proposed scheme is evaluated on a standard IEEE 39-bus New England benchmark system under different large disturbances such as three-phase short-circuit faults and changes in loads within the systems. From the simulation results, it is found that the proposed scheme significantly enhances the transient stability of power systems as compared to a conventional scheme of static CB operation.

  8. New Transfection Agents Based on Liposomes Containing Biosurfactant MEL-A

    PubMed Central

    Nakanishi, Mamoru; Inoh, Yoshikazu; Furuno, Tadahide

    2013-01-01

    Nano vectors are useful tools to deliver foreign DNAs, oligonucleotides, and small interfering double-stranded RNAs (siRNAs) into mammalian cells with gene transfection and gene regulation. In such experiments we have found the liposomes with a biosurfacant mannosylerythriol lipid (MEL-A) are useful because of their high transfer efficiency, and their unique mechanism to transfer genes to target cells with the lowest toxicity. In the present review we will describe our current work, which may contribute to the great advance of gene transfer to target cells and gene regulations. For more than two decades, the liposome technologies have changed dramatically and various methods have been proposed in the fields of biochemistry, cell biology, biotechnology, and so on. In addition, they were towards to pharmaceutics and clinical applications. The liposome technologies were expected to use gene therapy, however, they have not reached a requested goal as of yet. In the present paper we would like to present an approach using a biosurfactant, MEL-A, which is a surface-active compound produced by microorganisms growing on water-insoluble substrates and increases efficiency in gene transfection. The present work shows new transfection agents based on liposomes containing biosurfactant MEL-A. PMID:24300514

  9. BR1: A new ultrasonographic contrast agent based on sulfur hexafluoride-filled microbubbles

    SciTech Connect

    Scheider, M.; Arditi, M.; Barrau, M.B.

    1995-08-01

    Rationale and objectives. The basic characteristics of BR1, a novel echo contrast agent based on stabilized sulfur hexafluoride (SF{sub 6}) microbubbles have been evaluated. Methods. The authors determined the physicochemical properties (bubble concentration, bubble size distribution, resistance to pressure, and stability) and the acoustic properties (backscatter and attenuation coefficients) of BR1. The diagnostic value of BR1 was evaluated further in minipigs. Left heart images were recorded before and after injection of different doses of BR1. Results. BR1 is formulated as a lyophilized products, which after addition of saline, provides a suspension containing 2 X 10{sup 8} SF{sub 6} microbubbles/mL with a number mean diameter of 2.5 {mu}m. More than 90% of the bubbles are below 8 {mu}m. The use of SF{sub 6} rather than air provides an improved resistance to pressure increases such as the ones occuring in the left heart during systole. After reconstitution, the echogenicity and the bubble characteristics are unchanged for more than 8 hours. The high echogenicity remains almost constant over the entire medical frequency range (1-10 MH{sub Z}). BR1 injections in animals resulted in a homogenous, dose-dependent opacification of the left heart. Conclusions. Considering its high echogenicity, outstanding stability, and resistance to pressure changes, BR1 is a very promising ultrasound contrast agent. 14 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs.

  10. Designing novel cellulase systems through agent-based modeling and global sensitivity analysis

    PubMed Central

    Apte, Advait A; Senger, Ryan S; Fong, Stephen S

    2014-01-01

    Experimental techniques allow engineering of biological systems to modify functionality; however, there still remains a need to develop tools to prioritize targets for modification. In this study, agent-based modeling (ABM) was used to build stochastic models of complexed and non-complexed cellulose hydrolysis, including enzymatic mechanisms for endoglucanase, exoglucanase, and β-glucosidase activity. Modeling results were consistent with experimental observations of higher efficiency in complexed systems than non-complexed systems and established relationships between specific cellulolytic mechanisms and overall efficiency. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of model results identified key parameters for improving overall cellulose hydrolysis efficiency including: (1) the cellulase half-life, (2) the exoglucanase activity, and (3) the cellulase composition. Overall, the following parameters were found to significantly influence cellulose consumption in a consolidated bioprocess (CBP): (1) the glucose uptake rate of the culture, (2) the bacterial cell concentration, and (3) the nature of the cellulase enzyme system (complexed or non-complexed). Broadly, these results demonstrate the utility of combining modeling and sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters and/or targets for experimental improvement. PMID:24830736

  11. BSim: an agent-based tool for modeling bacterial populations in systems and synthetic biology.

    PubMed

    Gorochowski, Thomas E; Matyjaszkiewicz, Antoni; Todd, Thomas; Oak, Neeraj; Kowalska, Kira; Reid, Stephen; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira T; Savery, Nigel J; Grierson, Claire S; di Bernardo, Mario

    2012-01-01

    Large-scale collective behaviors such as synchronization and coordination spontaneously arise in many bacterial populations. With systems biology attempting to understand these phenomena, and synthetic biology opening up the possibility of engineering them for our own benefit, there is growing interest in how bacterial populations are best modeled. Here we introduce BSim, a highly flexible agent-based computational tool for analyzing the relationships between single-cell dynamics and population level features. BSim includes reference implementations of many bacterial traits to enable the quick development of new models partially built from existing ones. Unlike existing modeling tools, BSim fully considers spatial aspects of a model allowing for the description of intricate micro-scale structures, enabling the modeling of bacterial behavior in more realistic three-dimensional, complex environments. The new opportunities that BSim opens are illustrated through several diverse examples covering: spatial multicellular computing, modeling complex environments, population dynamics of the lac operon, and the synchronization of genetic oscillators. BSim is open source software that is freely available from http://bsim-bccs.sf.net and distributed under the Open Source Initiative (OSI) recognized MIT license. Developer documentation and a wide range of example simulations are also available from the website. BSim requires Java version 1.6 or higher. PMID:22936991

  12. Simulation of avascular tumor growth by agent-based game model involving phenotype-phenotype interactions.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yong; Wang, Hengtong; Zhang, Jiangang; Chen, Ke; Li, Yumin

    2015-01-01

    All tumors, both benign and metastatic, undergo an avascular growth stage with nutrients supplied by the surrounding tissue. This avascular growth process is much easier to carry out in more qualitative and quantitative experiments starting from tumor spheroids in vitro with reliable reproducibility. Essentially, this tumor progression would be described as a sequence of phenotypes. Using agent-based simulation in a two-dimensional spatial lattice, we constructed a composite growth model in which the phenotypic behavior of tumor cells depends on not only the local nutrient concentration and cell count but also the game among cells. Our simulation results demonstrated that in silico tumors are qualitatively similar to those observed in tumor spheroid experiments. We also found that the payoffs in the game between two living cell phenotypes can influence the growth velocity and surface roughness of tumors at the same time. Finally, this current model is flexible and can be easily extended to discuss other situations, such as environmental heterogeneity and mutation. PMID:26648395

  13. Coupling Agent-Based and Groundwater Modeling to Explore Demand Management Strategies for Shared Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Al-Amin, S.

    2015-12-01

    Municipal water demands in growing population centers in the arid southwest US are typically met through increased groundwater withdrawals. Hydro-climatic uncertainties attributed to climate change and land use conversions may also alter demands and impact the replenishment of groundwater supply. Groundwater aquifers are not necessarily confined within municipal and management boundaries, and multiple diverse agencies may manage a shared resource in a decentralized approach, based on individual concerns and resources. The interactions among water managers, consumers, and the environment influence the performance of local management strategies and regional groundwater resources. This research couples an agent-based modeling (ABM) framework and a groundwater model to analyze the effects of different management approaches on shared groundwater resources. The ABM captures the dynamic interactions between household-level consumers and policy makers to simulate water demands under climate change and population growth uncertainties. The groundwater model is used to analyze the relative effects of management approaches on reducing demands and replenishing groundwater resources. The framework is applied for municipalities located in the Verde River Basin, Arizona that withdraw groundwater from the Verde Formation-Basin Fill-Carbonate aquifer system. Insights gained through this simulation study can be used to guide groundwater policy-making under changing hydro-climatic scenarios for a long-term planning horizon.

  14. Evaluating Infection Prevention Strategies in Out-Patient Dialysis Units Using Agent-Based Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Wares, Joanna R.; Lawson, Barry; Shemin, Douglas; D’Agata, Erika M. C.

    2016-01-01

    Patients receiving chronic hemodialysis (CHD) are among the most vulnerable to infections caused by multidrug-resistant organisms (MDRO), which are associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. Current guidelines to reduce transmission of MDRO in the out-patient dialysis unit are targeted at patients considered to be high-risk for transmitting these organisms: those with infected skin wounds not contained by a dressing, or those with fecal incontinence or uncontrolled diarrhea. Here, we hypothesize that targeting patients receiving antimicrobial treatment would more effectively reduce transmission and acquisition of MDRO. We also hypothesize that environmental contamination plays a role in the dissemination of MDRO in the dialysis unit. To address our hypotheses, we built an agent-based model to simulate different treatment strategies in a dialysis unit. Our results suggest that reducing antimicrobial treatment, either by reducing the number of patients receiving treatment or by reducing the duration of the treatment, markedly reduces overall colonization rates and also the levels of environmental contamination in the dialysis unit. Our results also suggest that improving the environmental decontamination efficacy between patient dialysis treatments is an effective method for reducing colonization and contamination rates. These findings have important implications for the development and implementation of future infection prevention strategies. PMID:27195984

  15. Buying on margin, selling short in an agent-based market model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ting; Li, Honggang

    2013-09-01

    Credit trading, or leverage trading, which includes buying on margin and selling short, plays an important role in financial markets, where agents tend to increase their leverages for increased profits. This paper presents an agent-based asset market model to study the effect of the permissive leverage level on traders’ wealth and overall market indicators. In this model, heterogeneous agents can assume fundamental value-converging expectations or trend-persistence expectations, and their effective demands of assets depend both on demand willingness and wealth constraints, where leverage can relieve the wealth constraints to some extent. The asset market price is determined by a market maker, who watches the market excess demand, and is influenced by noise factors. By simulations, we examine market results for different leverage ratios. At the individual level, we focus on how the leverage ratio influences agents’ wealth accumulation. At the market level, we focus on how the leverage ratio influences changes in the asset price, volatility, and trading volume. Qualitatively, our model provides some meaningful results supported by empirical facts. More importantly, we find a continuous phase transition as we increase the leverage threshold, which may provide a further prospective of credit trading.

  16. Simulation of avascular tumor growth by agent-based game model involving phenotype-phenotype interactions

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Yong; Wang, Hengtong; Zhang, Jiangang; Chen, Ke; Li, Yumin

    2015-01-01

    All tumors, both benign and metastatic, undergo an avascular growth stage with nutrients supplied by the surrounding tissue. This avascular growth process is much easier to carry out in more qualitative and quantitative experiments starting from tumor spheroids in vitro with reliable reproducibility. Essentially, this tumor progression would be described as a sequence of phenotypes. Using agent-based simulation in a two-dimensional spatial lattice, we constructed a composite growth model in which the phenotypic behavior of tumor cells depends on not only the local nutrient concentration and cell count but also the game among cells. Our simulation results demonstrated that in silico tumors are qualitatively similar to those observed in tumor spheroid experiments. We also found that the payoffs in the game between two living cell phenotypes can influence the growth velocity and surface roughness of tumors at the same time. Finally, this current model is flexible and can be easily extended to discuss other situations, such as environmental heterogeneity and mutation. PMID:26648395

  17. Developing a Negotiation Mechanism for Agent-Based Scheduling Via Fuzzy Constraints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lai, K. Robert; Lin, Menq-Wen; Kao, Bo-Ruei

    The paper presents a negotiation mechanism for agent-based scheduling via fuzzy constraints. Scheduling is considered as a global consistency enforcing via iterative constraint adjustment and relaxation by agents. Fuzzy constraints, in this way, are used not only to represent the temporal relations that jobs being scheduled must satisfy, but also to specify the possibilities prescribing to what extent the solutions are suitable for scheduling to rank the solutions. The negotiation mechanism based on fuzzy constraint provides a systematic method to gradually relax the temporal constraints to generate a proposal, and then utilizes possibility functions to select an alternative schedule that is subject to the others' acceptability. Thus, each agent, who is in charge of different aspects of the problem, not only distributively solves its problems to maximize its local objectives, but also works together with other agents to attain a globally beneficial schedule. Experimental results suggest the proposed approach provides superior performance in all criteria to the contract net protocol and auction-based approaches.

  18. A Scaffolding Framework to Support Learning of Emergent Phenomena Using Multi-Agent-Based Simulation Environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basu, Satabdi; Sengupta, Pratim; Biswas, Gautam

    2015-04-01

    Students from middle school to college have difficulties in interpreting and understanding complex systems such as ecological phenomena. Researchers have suggested that students experience difficulties in reconciling the relationships between individuals, populations, and species, as well as the interactions between organisms and their environment in the ecosystem. Multi-agent-based computational models (MABMs) can explicitly capture agents and their interactions by representing individual actors as computational objects with assigned rules. As a result, the collective aggregate-level behavior of the population dynamically emerges from simulations that generate the aggregation of these interactions. Past studies have used a variety of scaffolds to help students learn ecological phenomena. Yet, there is no theoretical framework that supports the systematic design of scaffolds to aid students' learning in MABMs. Our paper addresses this issue by proposing a comprehensive framework for the design, analysis, and evaluation of scaffolding to support students' learning of ecology in a MABM. We present a study in which middle school students used a MABM to investigate and learn about a desert ecosystem. We identify the different types of scaffolds needed to support inquiry learning activities in this simulation environment and use our theoretical framework to demonstrate the effectiveness of our scaffolds in helping students develop a deep understanding of the complex ecological behaviors represented in the simulation..

  19. Testing an agent-based model of bacterial cell motility: How nutrient concentration affects speed distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, V.; Birbaumer, M.; Schweitzer, F.

    2011-08-01

    We revisit a recently proposed agent-based model of active biological motion and compare its predictions with own experimental findings for the speed distribution of bacterial cells, Salmonella typhimurium. Agents move according to a stochastic dynamics and use energy stored in an internal depot for metabolism and active motion. We discuss different assumptions of how the conversion from internal to kinetic energy d( v) may depend on the actual speed, to conclude that d 2 v ξ with either ξ = 2 or 1 < ξ < 2 are promising hypotheses. To test these, we compare the model's prediction with the speed distribution of bacteria which were obtained in media of different nutrient concentration and at different times. We find that both hypotheses are in line with the experimental observations, with ξ between 1.67 and 2.0. Regarding the influence of a higher nutrient concentration, we conclude that the take-up of energy by bacterial cells is indeed increased. But this energy is not used to increase the speed, with 40 μm/s as the most probable value of the speed distribution, but is rather spend on metabolism and growth.

  20. Quantitative Agent Based Model of Opinion Dynamics: Polish Elections of 2015

    PubMed Central

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    2016-01-01

    We present results of an abstract, agent based model of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) approach, applied to a strongly polarized society, corresponding to the Polish political scene between 2005 and 2015. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of two subcommunities of comparable size (supporting the corresponding opinions)—which corresponds to the bipartisan split found in Poland. Spurred by the recent breakdown of this political duopoly, which occurred in 2015, we present a model extension that describes both the long term coexistence of the two opposing opinions and a rapid, transitory change due to the appearance of a third party alternative. We provide quantitative comparison of the model with the results of polls and elections in Poland, testing the assumptions related to the modeled processes and the parameters used in the simulations. It is shown, that when the propaganda messages of the two incumbent parties differ in emotional tone, the political status quo may be unstable. The asymmetry of the emotions within the support bases of the two parties allows one of them to be ‘invaded’ by a newcomer third party very quickly, while the second remains immune to such invasion. PMID:27171226

  1. A spatial agent-based model for the simulation of adults' daily walking within a city.

    PubMed

    Yang, Yong; Diez Roux, Ana V; Auchincloss, Amy H; Rodriguez, Daniel A; Brown, Daniel G

    2011-03-01

    Environmental effects on walking behavior have received attention in recent years because of the potential for policy interventions to increase population levels of walking. Most epidemiologic studies describe associations of walking behavior with environmental features. These analyses ignore the dynamic processes that shape walking behaviors. A spatial agent-based model (ABM) was developed to simulate people's walking behaviors within a city. Each individual was assigned properties such as age, SES, walking ability, attitude toward walking and a home location. Individuals perform different activities on a regular basis such as traveling for work, for basic needs, and for leisure. Whether an individual walks and the amount she or he walks is a function of distance to different activities and her/his walking ability and attitude toward walking. An individual's attitude toward walking evolves over time as a function of past experiences, walking of others along the walking route, limits on distances walked per day, and attitudes toward walking of the other individuals within her/his social network. The model was calibrated and used to examine the contributions of land use and safety to socioeconomic differences in walking. With further refinement and validation, ABMs may help to better understand the determinants of walking and identify the most promising interventions to increase walking. PMID:21335269

  2. A Spatial Agent-Based Model for the Simulation of Adults’ Daily Walking Within a City

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Yong; Roux, Ana V. Diez; Auchincloss, Amy H.; Rodriguez, Daniel A.; Brown, Daniel G.

    2012-01-01

    Environmental effects on walking behavior have received attention in recent years because of the potential for policy interventions to increase population levels of walking. Most epidemiologic studies describe associations of walking behavior with environmental features. These analyses ignore the dynamic processes that shape walking behaviors. A spatial agent-based model (ABM) was developed to simulate peoples’ walking behaviors within a city. Each individual was assigned properties such as age, SES, walking ability, attitude toward walking and a home location. Individuals perform different activities on a regular basis such as traveling for work, for shopping, and for recreation. Whether an individual walks and the amount she or he walks is a function distance to different activities and her or his walking ability and attitude toward walking. An individual’s attitude toward walking evolves over time as a function of past experiences, walking of others along the walking route, limits on distances walked per day, and attitudes toward walking of the other individuals within her/his social network. The model was calibrated and used to examine the contributions of land use and safety to socioeconomic differences in walking. With further refinement and validation, ABMs may help to better understand the determinants of walking and identify the most promising interventions to increase walking. PMID:21335269

  3. Mesoscopic effects in an agent-based bargaining model in regular lattices.

    PubMed

    Poza, David J; Santos, José I; Galán, José M; López-Paredes, Adolfo

    2011-01-01

    The effect of spatial structure has been proved very relevant in repeated games. In this work we propose an agent based model where a fixed finite population of tagged agents play iteratively the Nash demand game in a regular lattice. The model extends the multiagent bargaining model by Axtell, Epstein and Young modifying the assumption of global interaction. Each agent is endowed with a memory and plays the best reply against the opponent's most frequent demand. We focus our analysis on the transient dynamics of the system, studying by computer simulation the set of states in which the system spends a considerable fraction of the time. The results show that all the possible persistent regimes in the global interaction model can also be observed in this spatial version. We also find that the mesoscopic properties of the interaction networks that the spatial distribution induces in the model have a significant impact on the diffusion of strategies, and can lead to new persistent regimes different from those found in previous research. In particular, community structure in the intratype interaction networks may cause that communities reach different persistent regimes as a consequence of the hindering diffusion effect of fluctuating agents at their borders. PMID:21408019

  4. Agent-based model with multi-level herding for complex financial systems

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Jun-Jie; Tan, Lei; Zheng, Bo

    2015-01-01

    In complex financial systems, the sector structure and volatility clustering are respectively important features of the spatial and temporal correlations. However, the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure is not yet understood. Especially, how to produce these two features in one model remains challenging. We introduce a novel interaction mechanism, i.e., the multi-level herding, in constructing an agent-based model to investigate the sector structure combined with volatility clustering. According to the previous market performance, agents trade in groups, and their herding behavior comprises the herding at stock, sector and market levels. Further, we propose methods to determine the key model parameters from historical market data, rather than from statistical fitting of the results. From the simulation, we obtain the sector structure and volatility clustering, as well as the eigenvalue distribution of the cross-correlation matrix, for the New York and Hong Kong stock exchanges. These properties are in agreement with the empirical ones. Our results quantitatively reveal that the multi-level herding is the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure, and provide new insight into the spatio-temporal interactions in financial systems at the microscopic level. PMID:25669427

  5. Agent-Based Crowd Simulation Considering Emotion Contagion for Emergency Evacuation Problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faroqi, H.; Mesgari, M.-S.

    2015-12-01

    During emergencies, emotions greatly affect human behaviour. For more realistic multi-agent systems in simulations of emergency evacuations, it is important to incorporate emotions and their effects on the agents. In few words, emotional contagion is a process in which a person or group influences the emotions or behavior of another person or group through the conscious or unconscious induction of emotion states and behavioral attitudes. In this study, we simulate an emergency situation in an open square area with three exits considering Adults and Children agents with different behavior. Also, Security agents are considered in order to guide Adults and Children for finding the exits and be calm. Six levels of emotion levels are considered for each agent in different scenarios and situations. The agent-based simulated model initialize with the random scattering of agent populations and then when an alarm occurs, each agent react to the situation based on its and neighbors current circumstances. The main goal of each agent is firstly to find the exit, and then help other agents to find their ways. Numbers of exited agents along with their emotion levels and damaged agents are compared in different scenarios with different initialization in order to evaluate the achieved results of the simulated model. NetLogo 5.2 is used as the multi-agent simulation framework with R language as the developing language.

  6. An agent-based modeling approach for determining corn stover removal rate and transboundary effects.

    PubMed

    Gan, Jianbang; Langeveld, J W A; Smith, C T

    2014-02-01

    Bioenergy production involves different agents with potentially different objectives, and an agent's decision often has transboundary impacts on other agents along the bioenergy value chain. Understanding and estimating the transboundary impacts is essential to portraying the interactions among the different agents and in the search for the optimal configuration of the bioenergy value chain. We develop an agent-based model to mimic the decision making by feedstock producers and feedstock-to-biofuel conversion plant operators and propose multipliers (i.e., ratios of economic values accruing to different segments and associated agents in the value chain) for assessing the transboundary impacts. Our approach is generic and thus applicable to a variety of bioenergy production systems at different sites and geographic scales. We apply it to the case of producing ethanol using corn stover in Iowa, USA. The results from the case study indicate that stover removal rate is site specific and varies considerably with soil type, as well as other factors, such as stover price and harvesting cost. In addition, ethanol production using corn stover in the study region would have strong positive ripple effects, with the values of multipliers varying with greenhouse gas price and national energy security premium. The relatively high multiplier values suggest that a large portion of the value associated with corn stover ethanol production would accrue to the downstream end of the value chain instead of stover producers. PMID:24276896

  7. Minimal agent based model for financial markets II. Statistical properties of the linear and multiplicative dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alfi, V.; Cristelli, M.; Pietronero, L.; Zaccaria, A.

    2009-02-01

    We present a detailed study of the statistical properties of the Agent Based Model introduced in paper I [Eur. Phys. J. B, DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2009-00028-4] and of its generalization to the multiplicative dynamics. The aim of the model is to consider the minimal elements for the understanding of the origin of the stylized facts and their self-organization. The key elements are fundamentalist agents, chartist agents, herding dynamics and price behavior. The first two elements correspond to the competition between stability and instability tendencies in the market. The herding behavior governs the possibility of the agents to change strategy and it is a crucial element of this class of models. We consider a linear approximation for the price dynamics which permits a simple interpretation of the model dynamics and, for many properties, it is possible to derive analytical results. The generalized non linear dynamics results to be extremely more sensible to the parameter space and much more difficult to analyze and control. The main results for the nature and self-organization of the stylized facts are, however, very similar in the two cases. The main peculiarity of the non linear dynamics is an enhancement of the fluctuations and a more marked evidence of the stylized facts. We will also discuss some modifications of the model to introduce more realistic elements with respect to the real markets.

  8. Agent-Based Modleing of Power Plants Placement to Evaluate the Clean Energy Standard Goal

    SciTech Connect

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A

    2014-01-01

    There is a political push for utilities to supply a specified share of their electricity sales from clean energy resources under the clean energy standard (CES). The goal is to achieve 80% clean energy by 2035. However, there are uncertainties about the ability of the utility industry to ramp up quickly even with the incentives that will be provided. Water availability from the streams is one of the major factors. The contiguous United States is divided into eighteen water regions, and multiple states share water from a single water region. Consequently, water usage decisions made in one state (located upstream of a water region that crosses multiple states) will greatly impact what is available downstream in another state. In this paper, an agent-based modeling approach is proposed to evaluate the clean energy standard goal for water-dependent energy resources. Specifically, using a water region rather than a state boundary as a bounding envelope for the modeling and starting at the headwaters, virtual power plants are placed based on the conditions that there is: (i) suitable land to site a particular power plant, (ii) enough water that meet regulatory guidelines within 20 miles of the suitable land, and (iii) a 20-mile buffer zone from an existing or a virtual power plant. The results obtained are discussed in the context of the proposed clean energy standard goal for states that overlap with one water region.

  9. Mesoscopic Effects in an Agent-Based Bargaining Model in Regular Lattices

    PubMed Central

    Poza, David J.; Santos, José I.; Galán, José M.; López-Paredes, Adolfo

    2011-01-01

    The effect of spatial structure has been proved very relevant in repeated games. In this work we propose an agent based model where a fixed finite population of tagged agents play iteratively the Nash demand game in a regular lattice. The model extends the multiagent bargaining model by Axtell, Epstein and Young [1] modifying the assumption of global interaction. Each agent is endowed with a memory and plays the best reply against the opponent's most frequent demand. We focus our analysis on the transient dynamics of the system, studying by computer simulation the set of states in which the system spends a considerable fraction of the time. The results show that all the possible persistent regimes in the global interaction model can also be observed in this spatial version. We also find that the mesoscopic properties of the interaction networks that the spatial distribution induces in the model have a significant impact on the diffusion of strategies, and can lead to new persistent regimes different from those found in previous research. In particular, community structure in the intratype interaction networks may cause that communities reach different persistent regimes as a consequence of the hindering diffusion effect of fluctuating agents at their borders. PMID:21408019

  10. Towards a Hybrid Agent-based Model for Mosquito Borne Disease

    PubMed Central

    Mniszewski, S. M.; Manore, C. A.; Bryan, C.; Del Valle, S. Y.; Roberts, D.

    2015-01-01

    Agent-based models (ABM) are used to simulate the spread of infectious disease through a population. Detailed human movement, demography, realistic business location networks, and in-host disease progression are available in existing ABMs, such as the Epidemic Simulation System (EpiSimS). These capabilities make possible the exploration of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation strategies used to inform the public health community. There is a similar need for the spread of mosquito borne pathogens due to the re-emergence of diseases such as chikungunya and dengue fever. A network-patch model for mosquito dynamics has been coupled with EpiSimS. Mosquitoes are represented as a “patch” or “cloud” associated with a location. Each patch has an ordinary differential equation (ODE) mosquito dynamics model and mosquito related parameters relevant to the location characteristics. Activities at each location can have different levels of potential exposure to mosquitoes based on whether they are inside, outside, or somewhere in-between. As a proof of concept, the hybrid network-patch model is used to simulate the spread of chikungunya through Washington, DC. Results are shown for a base case, followed by varying the probability of transmission, mosquito count, and activity exposure. We use visualization to understand the pattern of disease spread. PMID:26618203

  11. A dynamic agent-based analysis for the environmental impacts of conventional and novel book retailing.

    PubMed

    Xu, Ming; Allenby, Braden; Kim, Junbeum; Kahhat, Ramzy

    2009-04-15

    The dynamics of an e-commerce market and the associated environmental impacts from a bottom-up perspective using an agent-based model is explored. A conceptual meta-theory from psychology is adopted to form the behavioral rules of artificial consumers choosing different methods of buying a book, including conventional bookstores, e-commerce, and a proposed self-pick-up option. Given the energy and emissions savings that result from a shift to e-commerce from bookstore purchase, it appears that reductions in environmental impacts are relatively probable. Additionally, our results suggest that the shift to e-commerce is mainly due to the growth of Internet users, which ties energy and emissions savings to Internet penetration. Moreover, under any scenario, the energy and emissions savings will be provided by the introduction of the proposed self-pick-up option. Our model thus provides insights into market behaviors and related environmental impacts of the growing use of e-commerce systems at the retail level, and provides a basis for the development and implementation of more sustainable policies and practices. PMID:19475961

  12. Development and evaluation of liquid embolic agents based on liquid crystalline material of glyceryl monooleate.

    PubMed

    Du, Ling-Ran; Lu, Xiao-Jing; Guan, Hai-Tao; Yang, Yong-Jie; Gu, Meng-Jie; Zheng, Zhuo-Zhao; Lv, Tian-Shi; Yan, Zi-Guang; Song, Li; Zou, Ying-Hua; Fu, Nai-Qi; Qi, Xian-Rong; Fan, Tian-Yuan

    2014-08-25

    New type of liquid embolic agents based on a liquid crystalline material of glyceryl monooleate (GMO) was developed and evaluated in this study. Ternary phase diagram of GMO, water and ethanol was constructed and three isotropic liquids (ILs, GMO:ethanol:water=49:21:30, 60:20:20 and 72:18:10 (w/w/w)) were selected as potential liquid embolic agents, which could spontaneously form viscous gel cast when contacting with water or physiological fluid. The ILs exhibited excellent microcatheter deliverability due to low viscosity, and were proved to successfully block the saline flow when performed in a device to simulate embolization in vitro. The ILs also showed good cytocompatibility on L929 mouse fibroblast cell line. The embolization of ILs to rabbit kidneys was performed successfully under monitoring of digital subtraction angiography (DSA), and embolic degree was affected by the initial formulation composition and used volume. At 5th week after embolization, DSA and computed tomography (CT) confirmed the renal arteries embolized with IL did not recanalize in follow-up period, and an obvious atrophy of the embolized kidney was observed. Therefore, the GMO-based liquid embolic agents showed feasible and effective to embolize, and potential use in clinical interventional embolization therapy. PMID:24858389

  13. Price dynamics and market power in an agent-based power exchange

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cincotti, Silvano; Guerci, Eric; Raberto, Marco

    2005-05-01

    This paper presents an agent-based model of a power exchange. Supply of electric power is provided by competing generating companies, whereas demand is assumed to be inelastic with respect to price and is constant over time. The transmission network topology is assumed to be a fully connected graph and no transmission constraints are taken into account. The price formation process follows a common scheme for real power exchanges: a clearing house mechanism with uniform price, i.e., with price set equal across all matched buyer-seller pairs. A single class of generating companies is considered, characterized by linear cost function for each technology. Generating companies compete for the sale of electricity through repeated rounds of the uniform auction and determine their supply functions according to production costs. However, an individual reinforcement learning algorithm characterizes generating companies behaviors in order to attain the expected maximum possible profit in each auction round. The paper investigates how the market competitive equilibrium is affected by market microstructure and production costs.

  14. Agent Based Modeling of Atherosclerosis: A Concrete Help in Personalized Treatments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pappalardo, Francesco; Cincotti, Alessandro; Motta, Alfredo; Pennisi, Marzio

    Atherosclerosis, a pathology affecting arterial blood vessels, is one of most common diseases of the developed countries. We present studies on the increased atherosclerosis risk using an agent based model of atherogenesis that has been previously validated using clinical data. It is well known that the major risk in atherosclerosis is the persistent high level of low density lipoprotein (LDL) concentration. However, it is not known if short period of high LDL concentration can cause irreversible damage and if reduction of the LDL concentration (either by life style or drug) can drastically or partially reduce the already acquired risk. We simulated four different clinical situations in a large set of virtual patients (200 per clinical scenario). In the first one the patients lifestyle maintains the concentration of LDL in a no risk range. This is the control case simulation. The second case is represented by patients having high level of LDL with a delay to apply appropriate treatments; The third scenario is characterized by patients with high LDL levels treated with specific drugs like statins. Finally we simulated patients that are characterized by several oxidative events (smoke, sedentary life style, assumption of alcoholic drinks and so on so forth) that effective increase the risk of LDL oxidation. Those preliminary results obviously need to be clinically investigated. It is clear, however, that SimAthero has the power to concretely help medical doctors and clinicians in choosing personalized treatments for the prevention of the atherosclerosis damages.

  15. Physics and financial economics (1776-2014): puzzles, Ising and agent-based models.

    PubMed

    Sornette, Didier

    2014-06-01

    This short review presents a selected history of the mutual fertilization between physics and economics--from Isaac Newton and Adam Smith to the present. The fundamentally different perspectives embraced in theories developed in financial economics compared with physics are dissected with the examples of the volatility smile and of the excess volatility puzzle. The role of the Ising model of phase transitions to model social and financial systems is reviewed, with the concepts of random utilities and the logit model as the analog of the Boltzmann factor in statistical physics. Recent extensions in terms of quantum decision theory are also covered. A wealth of models are discussed briefly that build on the Ising model and generalize it to account for the many stylized facts of financial markets. A summary of the relevance of the Ising model and its extensions is provided to account for financial bubbles and crashes. The review would be incomplete if it did not cover the dynamical field of agent-based models (ABMs), also known as computational economic models, of which the Ising-type models are just special ABM implementations. We formulate the 'Emerging Intelligence Market Hypothesis' to reconcile the pervasive presence of 'noise traders' with the near efficiency of financial markets. Finally, we note that evolutionary biology, more than physics, is now playing a growing role to inspire models of financial markets. PMID:24875470

  16. Physics and financial economics (1776-2014): puzzles, Ising and agent-based models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sornette, Didier

    2014-06-01

    This short review presents a selected history of the mutual fertilization between physics and economics—from Isaac Newton and Adam Smith to the present. The fundamentally different perspectives embraced in theories developed in financial economics compared with physics are dissected with the examples of the volatility smile and of the excess volatility puzzle. The role of the Ising model of phase transitions to model social and financial systems is reviewed, with the concepts of random utilities and the logit model as the analog of the Boltzmann factor in statistical physics. Recent extensions in terms of quantum decision theory are also covered. A wealth of models are discussed briefly that build on the Ising model and generalize it to account for the many stylized facts of financial markets. A summary of the relevance of the Ising model and its extensions is provided to account for financial bubbles and crashes. The review would be incomplete if it did not cover the dynamical field of agent-based models (ABMs), also known as computational economic models, of which the Ising-type models are just special ABM implementations. We formulate the ‘Emerging Intelligence Market Hypothesis’ to reconcile the pervasive presence of ‘noise traders’ with the near efficiency of financial markets. Finally, we note that evolutionary biology, more than physics, is now playing a growing role to inspire models of financial markets.

  17. Can human-like Bots control collective mood: agent-based simulations of online chats

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tadić, Bosiljka; Šuvakov, Milovan

    2013-10-01

    Using an agent-based modeling approach, in this paper, we study self-organized dynamics of interacting agents in the presence of chat Bots. Different Bots with tunable ‘human-like’ attributes, which exchange emotional messages with agents, are considered, and the collective emotional behavior of agents is quantitatively analyzed. In particular, using detrended fractal analysis we determine persistent fluctuations and temporal correlations in time series of agent activity and statistics of avalanches carrying emotional messages of agents when Bots favoring positive/negative affects are active. We determine the impact of Bots and identify parameters that can modulate that impact. Our analysis suggests that, by these measures, the emotional Bots induce collective emotion among interacting agents by suitably altering the fractal characteristics of the underlying stochastic process. Positive emotion Bots are slightly more effective than negative emotion Bots. Moreover, Bots which periodically alternate between positive and negative emotion can enhance fluctuations in the system, leading to avalanches of agent messages that are reminiscent of self-organized critical states.

  18. Modelling the Transport of Nanoparticles under Blood Flow using an Agent-based Approach

    PubMed Central

    Fullstone, Gavin; Wood, Jonathan; Holcombe, Mike; Battaglia, Giuseppe

    2015-01-01

    Blood-mediated nanoparticle delivery is a new and growing field in the development of therapeutics and diagnostics. Nanoparticle properties such as size, shape and surface chemistry can be controlled to improve their performance in biological systems. This enables modulation of immune system interactions, blood clearance profile and interaction with target cells, thereby aiding effective delivery of cargo within cells or tissues. Their ability to target and enter tissues from the blood is highly dependent on their behaviour under blood flow. Here we have produced an agent-based model of nanoparticle behaviour under blood flow in capillaries. We demonstrate that red blood cells are highly important for effective nanoparticle distribution within capillaries. Furthermore, we use this model to demonstrate how nanoparticle size can selectively target tumour tissue over normal tissue. We demonstrate that the polydispersity of nanoparticle populations is an important consideration in achieving optimal specificity and to avoid off-target effects. In future this model could be used for informing new nanoparticle design and to predict general and specific uptake properties under blood flow. PMID:26058969

  19. Coevolution of risk perception, sexual behaviour, and HIV transmission in an agent-based model.

    PubMed

    Tully, Stephen; Cojocaru, Monica; Bauch, Chris T

    2013-11-21

    Risk perception shapes individual behaviour, and is in turn shaped by the consequences of that behaviour. Here we explore this dynamics in the context of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) spread. We construct a simplified agent-based model based on a partner selection game, where individuals are paired with others in the population, and through a decision tree, agree on unprotected sex, protected sex, or no sex. An individual's choice is conditioned on their HIV status, their perceived population-level HIV prevalence, and the preferences expressed by the individual with whom they are paired. HIV is transmitted during unprotected sex with a certain probability. As expected, in model simulations, the perceived population-level HIV prevalence climbs along with actual HIV prevalence. During this time, HIV- individuals increasingly switch from unprotected sex to protected sex, HIV+ individuals continue practicing unprotected sex whenever possible, and unprotected sex between HIV+ and HIV- individuals eventually becomes rare. We also find that the perceived population-level HIV prevalence diverges according to HIV status: HIV- individuals develop a higher perceived HIV prevalence than HIV+ individuals, although this result is sensitive to how much information is derived from global versus local sources. This research illustrates a potential mechanism by which distinct groups, as defined by their sexual behaviour, HIV status, and risk perceptions, can emerge through coevolution of HIV transmission and risk perception dynamics. PMID:23988796

  20. Agent-Based Support for Context-Aware Provisioning of IMS-Enabled Ubiquitous Services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petric, Ana; Trzec, Krunoslav; Jurasovic, Kresimir; Podobnik, Vedran; Jezic, Gordan; Kusek, Mario; Ljubi, Igor

    Multimedia applications executed on mobile devices allow users to be present and communicate with other users, anywhere and anytime, through wide area cellular networks, wireless local area networks (WLAN), or fixed networks. In order to enable ubiquitous personalized services, communication systems should allow users to specify their context, or their mobile devices and network infrastructures should automatically sense their context and offer enhanced service provisioning solutions. In this paper, we propose an agent-based solution that supports context-aware provisioning of IP multimedia subsystem (IMS)-enabled ubiquitous services. Using agent technology, multimedia communication, controlled by SIP and enriched with context-related events delivered by SIP's event mechanism, can be seamlessly provisioned, taking into account not only mobility issues and context-awareness, but also the semantics of exchanged events. This paper proposes a multi-agent system that will enable users to consume context-aware ubiquitous services in a seamless (i.e., automated) way, providing optimal provisioning of SIP-based multimedia services according to user preferences.

  1. Slacking in the context of agent-based assessment in virtual rehabilitation systems.

    PubMed

    Coffey, Aodhán L; Ward, Tomás E

    2014-01-01

    Efforts are already underway to develop technology-derived solutions which automate aspects of conventional therapy. Ideally we would like to develop a human-like virtual therapist, in an attempt to enhance automated rehabilitation particularly in the home setting. One interesting skill of the experienced human therapist that we would like to model is the ability to recognize and manage behavior patterns known to decrease the effectiveness of rehabilitation. A particularly compelling example of such behavior is described in the context of robot-assisted therapy, where it has been demonstrated that "assist-as-needed" strategies may impact negatively on rehabilitation outcomes due to an intrinsic property of the human motor systems that encourages "slacking" as a form of energy optimization. In this work we endeavor to explore and extend this concept by giving it context in the standard therapist-patient interaction setting. We developed an apparatus which can measure and quantify grip strength and an agent based virtual therapist that can assess performance and offer simple natural language feedback in real time. We then conducted a series of experiments with healthy subjects in which the mapping between performance and feedback valence is altered. Our results demonstrate that subject performance is dependent on the feedback rules and that in particular, excessively positive feedback yields performance dynamics analogous to those observed in slacking studies. These preliminary results have implications for the design of virtual therapist systems. PMID:25571325

  2. An agent-based approach to modelling the effects of extreme events on global food prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

    2015-04-01

    Extreme climate events such as droughts or heat waves affect agricultural production in major food producing regions and therefore can influence the price of staple foods on the world market. There is evidence that recent dramatic spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual and/or expected supply shortages. The reaction of the market to supply changes is however highly nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and export restrictions. Here we present for the first time an agent-based modelling framework that accounts, in simplified terms, for these processes and allows to estimate the reaction of world food prices to supply shocks on a short (monthly) timescale. We test the basic model using observed historical supply, demand, and price data of wheat as a major food grain. Further, we illustrate how the model can be used in conjunction with biophysical crop models to assess the effect of future changes in extreme event regimes on the volatility of food prices. In particular, the explicit representation of storage dynamics makes it possible to investigate the potentially nonlinear interaction between simultaneous extreme events in different food producing regions, or between several consecutive events in the same region, which may both occur more frequently under future global warming.

  3. A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grimm, Volker; Berger, Uta; Bastiansen, Finn; Eliassen, Sigrunn; Ginot, Vincent; Giske, Jarl; Goss-Custard, John; Grand, Tamara; Heinz, Simone K.; Huse, Geir; Huth, Andreas; Jepsen, Jane U.; Jorgensen, Christian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Muller, Birgit; Pe'er, Guy; Piou, Cyril; Railsback, Steven F.; Robbins, Andrew M.; Robbins, Martha M.; Rossmanith, Eva; Ruger, Nadja; Strand, Espen; Souissi, Sami; Stillman, Richard A.; Vabo, Rune; Visser, Ute; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2006-01-01

    Simulation models that describe autonomous individual organisms (individual based models, IBM) or agents (agent-based models, ABM) have become a widely used tool, not only in ecology, but also in many other disciplines dealing with complex systems made up of autonomous entities. However, there is no standard protocol for describing such simulation models, which can make them difficult to understand and to duplicate. This paper presents a proposed standard protocol, ODD, for describing IBMs and ABMs, developed and tested by 28 modellers who cover a wide range of fields within ecology. This protocol consists of three blocks (Overview, Design concepts, and Details), which are subdivided into seven elements: Purpose, State variables and scales, Process overview and scheduling, Design concepts, Initialization, Input, and Submodels. We explain which aspects of a model should be described in each element, and we present an example to illustrate the protocol in use. In addition, 19 examples are available in an Online Appendix. We consider ODD as a first step for establishing a more detailed common format of the description of IBMs and ABMs. Once initiated, the protocol will hopefully evolve as it becomes used by a sufficiently large proportion of modellers.

  4. Quantitative Agent Based Model of Opinion Dynamics: Polish Elections of 2015.

    PubMed

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    2016-01-01

    We present results of an abstract, agent based model of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) approach, applied to a strongly polarized society, corresponding to the Polish political scene between 2005 and 2015. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of two subcommunities of comparable size (supporting the corresponding opinions)-which corresponds to the bipartisan split found in Poland. Spurred by the recent breakdown of this political duopoly, which occurred in 2015, we present a model extension that describes both the long term coexistence of the two opposing opinions and a rapid, transitory change due to the appearance of a third party alternative. We provide quantitative comparison of the model with the results of polls and elections in Poland, testing the assumptions related to the modeled processes and the parameters used in the simulations. It is shown, that when the propaganda messages of the two incumbent parties differ in emotional tone, the political status quo may be unstable. The asymmetry of the emotions within the support bases of the two parties allows one of them to be 'invaded' by a newcomer third party very quickly, while the second remains immune to such invasion. PMID:27171226

  5. An Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Determining Corn Stover Removal Rate and Transboundary Effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gan, Jianbang; Langeveld, J. W. A.; Smith, C. T.

    2014-02-01

    Bioenergy production involves different agents with potentially different objectives, and an agent's decision often has transboundary impacts on other agents along the bioenergy value chain. Understanding and estimating the transboundary impacts is essential to portraying the interactions among the different agents and in the search for the optimal configuration of the bioenergy value chain. We develop an agent-based model to mimic the decision making by feedstock producers and feedstock-to-biofuel conversion plant operators and propose multipliers (i.e., ratios of economic values accruing to different segments and associated agents in the value chain) for assessing the transboundary impacts. Our approach is generic and thus applicable to a variety of bioenergy production systems at different sites and geographic scales. We apply it to the case of producing ethanol using corn stover in Iowa, USA. The results from the case study indicate that stover removal rate is site specific and varies considerably with soil type, as well as other factors, such as stover price and harvesting cost. In addition, ethanol production using corn stover in the study region would have strong positive ripple effects, with the values of multipliers varying with greenhouse gas price and national energy security premium. The relatively high multiplier values suggest that a large portion of the value associated with corn stover ethanol production would accrue to the downstream end of the value chain instead of stover producers.

  6. Agent-based model with multi-level herding for complex financial systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Jun-Jie; Tan, Lei; Zheng, Bo

    2015-02-01

    In complex financial systems, the sector structure and volatility clustering are respectively important features of the spatial and temporal correlations. However, the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure is not yet understood. Especially, how to produce these two features in one model remains challenging. We introduce a novel interaction mechanism, i.e., the multi-level herding, in constructing an agent-based model to investigate the sector structure combined with volatility clustering. According to the previous market performance, agents trade in groups, and their herding behavior comprises the herding at stock, sector and market levels. Further, we propose methods to determine the key model parameters from historical market data, rather than from statistical fitting of the results. From the simulation, we obtain the sector structure and volatility clustering, as well as the eigenvalue distribution of the cross-correlation matrix, for the New York and Hong Kong stock exchanges. These properties are in agreement with the empirical ones. Our results quantitatively reveal that the multi-level herding is the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure, and provide new insight into the spatio-temporal interactions in financial systems at the microscopic level.

  7. Agent-based computer simulation and sirs: building a bridge between basic science and clinical trials.

    PubMed

    An, G

    2001-10-01

    The management of Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS)/Multiple Organ Failure (MOF) remains the greatest challenge in the field of critical care. There has been uniform difficulty in translating the results of basic science research into effective therapeutic regimes. We propose that this is due in part to a failure to account for the complex, nonlinear nature of the inflammatory process of which SIRS/MOF represents a disordered state. Attempts to manipulate this process without an understanding of the dynamics of the system may potentially produce unintended consequences. Agent-Based Computer Simulation (ABCS) provides a means to synthesize the information acquired from the linear analysis of basic science into a model that preserves the complexity of the inflammatory system. We have constructed an abstracted version of the inflammatory process using an ABCS that is based at the cellular level. Despite its abstraction, the simulation produces non-linear behavior and reproduces the dynamic structure of the inflammatory response. Furthermore, adjustment of the simulation to model one of the unsuccessful initial anti-inflammatory trials of the 1990's demonstrates the adverse outcome that was observed in those clinical trials. It must be emphasized that the current model is extremely abstract and simplified. However, it is hoped that future ABCSs of sufficient sophistication eventually may provide an important bridging tool to translate basic science discoveries into clinical applications. Creating these simulations will require a large collaborative effort, and it is hoped that this paper will stimulate interest in this form of analysis. PMID:11580108

  8. Study of the attractor structure of an agent-based sociological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Timpanaro, André M.; Prado, Carmen P. C.

    2011-03-01

    The Sznajd model is a sociophysics model that is based in the Potts model, and used for describing opinion propagation in a society. It employs an agent-based approach and interaction rules favouring pairs of agreeing agents. It has been successfully employed in modeling some properties and scale features of both proportional and majority elections (see for instance the works of A. T. Bernardes and R. N. Costa Filho), but its stationary states are always consensus states. In order to explain more complicated behaviours, we have modified the bounded confidence idea (introduced before in other opinion models, like the Deffuant model), with the introduction of prejudices and biases (we called this modification confidence rules), and have adapted it to the discrete Sznajd model. This generalized Sznajd model is able to reproduce almost all of the previous versions of the Sznajd model, by using appropriate choices of parameters. We solved the attractor structure of the resulting model in a mean-field approach and made Monte Carlo simulations in a Barabási-Albert network. These simulations show great similarities with the mean-field, for the tested cases of 3 and 4 opinions. The dynamical systems approach that we devised allows for a deeper understanding of the potential of the Sznajd model as an opinion propagation model and can be easily extended to other models, like the voter model. Our modification of the bounded confidence rule can also be readily applied to other opinion propagation models.

  9. Introducing Spatial Information into Predictive NF-κB Modelling – An Agent-Based Approach

    PubMed Central

    Pogson, Mark; Holcombe, Mike; Smallwood, Rod; Qwarnstrom, Eva

    2008-01-01

    Nature is governed by local interactions among lower-level sub-units, whether at the cell, organ, organism, or colony level. Adaptive system behaviour emerges via these interactions, which integrate the activity of the sub-units. To understand the system level it is necessary to understand the underlying local interactions. Successful models of local interactions at different levels of biological organisation, including epithelial tissue and ant colonies, have demonstrated the benefits of such ‘agent-based’ modelling [1]–[4]. Here we present an agent-based approach to modelling a crucial biological system – the intracellular NF-κB signalling pathway. The pathway is vital to immune response regulation, and is fundamental to basic survival in a range of species [5]–[7]. Alterations in pathway regulation underlie a variety of diseases, including atherosclerosis and arthritis. Our modelling of individual molecules, receptors and genes provides a more comprehensive outline of regulatory network mechanisms than previously possible with equation-based approaches [8]. The method also permits consideration of structural parameters in pathway regulation; here we predict that inhibition of NF-κB is directly affected by actin filaments of the cytoskeleton sequestering excess inhibitors, therefore regulating steady-state and feedback behaviour. PMID:18523553

  10. Agent-based human-robot interaction of a combat bulldozer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Granot, Reuven; Feldman, Maxim

    2004-09-01

    A small-scale supervised autonomous bulldozer in a remote site was developed to experience agent based human intervention. The model is based on Lego Mindstorms kit and represents combat equipment, whose job performance does not require high accuracy. The model enables evaluation of system response for different operator interventions, as well as for a small colony of semiautonomous dozers. The supervising human may better react than a fully autonomous system to unexpected contingent events, which are a major barrier to implement full autonomy. The automation is introduced as improved Man Machine Interface (MMI) by developing control agents as intelligent tools to negotiate between human requests and task level controllers as well as negotiate with other elements of the software environment. Current UGVs demand significant communication resources and constant human operation. Therefore they will be replaced by semi-autonomous human supervisory controlled systems (telerobotic). For human intervention at the low layers of the control hierarchy we suggest a task oriented control agent to take care of the fluent transition between the state in which the robot operates and the one imposed by the human. This transition should take care about the imperfections, which are responsible for the improper operation of the robot, by disconnecting or adapting them to the new situation. Preliminary conclusions from the small-scale experiments are presented.

  11. Agent-based model with multi-level herding for complex financial systems.

    PubMed

    Chen, Jun-Jie; Tan, Lei; Zheng, Bo

    2015-01-01

    In complex financial systems, the sector structure and volatility clustering are respectively important features of the spatial and temporal correlations. However, the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure is not yet understood. Especially, how to produce these two features in one model remains challenging. We introduce a novel interaction mechanism, i.e., the multi-level herding, in constructing an agent-based model to investigate the sector structure combined with volatility clustering. According to the previous market performance, agents trade in groups, and their herding behavior comprises the herding at stock, sector and market levels. Further, we propose methods to determine the key model parameters from historical market data, rather than from statistical fitting of the results. From the simulation, we obtain the sector structure and volatility clustering, as well as the eigenvalue distribution of the cross-correlation matrix, for the New York and Hong Kong stock exchanges. These properties are in agreement with the empirical ones. Our results quantitatively reveal that the multi-level herding is the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure, and provide new insight into the spatio-temporal interactions in financial systems at the microscopic level. PMID:25669427

  12. Reverse engineering a social agent-based hidden markov model--visage.

    PubMed

    Chen, Hung-Ching Justin; Goldberg, Mark; Magdon-Ismail, Malik; Wallace, William A

    2008-12-01

    We present a machine learning approach to discover the agent dynamics that drives the evolution of the social groups in a community. We set up the problem by introducing an agent-based hidden Markov model for the agent dynamics: an agent's actions are determined by micro-laws. Nonetheless, We learn the agent dynamics from the observed communications without knowing state transitions. Our approach is to identify the appropriate micro-laws corresponding to an identification of the appropriate parameters in the model. The model identification problem is then formulated as a mixed optimization problem. To solve the problem, we develop a multistage learning process for determining the group structure, the group evolution, and the micro-laws of a community based on the observed set of communications among actors, without knowing the semantic contents. Finally, to test the quality of our approximations and the feasibility of the approach, we present the results of extensive experiments on synthetic data as well as the results on real communities, such as Enron email and Movie newsgroups. Insight into agent dynamics helps us understand the driving forces behind social evolution. PMID:19145665

  13. Ising-like agent-based technology diffusion model: Adoption patterns vs. seeding strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laciana, Carlos E.; Rovere, Santiago L.

    2011-03-01

    The well-known Ising model used in statistical physics was adapted to a social dynamics context to simulate the adoption of a technological innovation. The model explicitly combines (a) an individual's perception of the advantages of an innovation and (b) social influence from members of the decision-maker's social network. The micro-level adoption dynamics are embedded into an agent-based model that allows exploration of macro-level patterns of technology diffusion throughout systems with different configurations (number and distributions of early adopters, social network topologies). In the present work we carry out many numerical simulations. We find that when the gap between the individual's perception of the options is high, the adoption speed increases if the dispersion of early adopters grows. Another test was based on changing the network topology by means of stochastic connections to a common opinion reference (hub), which resulted in an increment in the adoption speed. Finally, we performed a simulation of competition between options for both regular and small world networks.

  14. Developing Framework for Agent- Based Diabetes Disease Management System: User Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Mohammadzadeh, Niloofar; Safdari, Reza; Rahimi, Azin

    2014-01-01

    Background: One of the characteristics of agents is mobility which makes them very suitable for remote electronic health and tele medicine. The aim of this study is developing a framework for agent based diabetes information management at national level through identifying required agents. Methods: The main tool is a questioner that is designed in three sections based on studying library resources, performance of major organizations in the field of diabetes in and out of the country and interviews with experts in the medical, health information management and software fields. Questionnaires based on Delphi methods were distributed among 20 experts. In order to design and identify agents required in health information management for the prevention and appropriate and rapid treatment of diabetes, the results were analyzed using SPSS 17 and Results were plotted with FREEPLANE mind map software. Results: Access to data technology in proposed framework in order of priority is: mobile (mean 1/80), SMS, EMAIL (mean 2/80), internet, web (mean 3/30), phone (mean 3/60), WIFI (mean 4/60). Conclusions: In delivering health care to diabetic patients, considering social and human aspects is essential. Having a systematic view for implementation of agent systems and paying attention to all aspects such as feedbacks, user acceptance, budget, motivation, hierarchy, useful standards, affordability of individuals, identifying barriers and opportunities and so on, are necessary. PMID:24757407

  15. Retail Location Choice with Complementary Goods: An Agent-Based Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Arthur; Levinson, David

    This paper models the emergence of retail clusters on a supply chain network comprised of suppliers, retailers, and consumers. Firstly, an agent-based model is proposed to investigate retail location distribution in a market of two complementary goods. The methodology controls for supplier locales and unit sales prices of retailers and suppliers, and a consumer’s willingness to patronize a retailer depends on the total travel distance of buying both goods. On a circle comprised of discrete locations, retailers play a non-cooperative game of location choice to maximize individual profits. Our findings suggest that the probability distribution of the number of clusters in equilibrium follows power law and that hierarchical distribution patterns are much more likely to occur than the spread-out ones. In addition, retailers of complementary goods tend to co-locate at supplier locales. Sensitivity tests on the number of retailers are also performed. Secondly, based on the County Business Patterns (CBP) data of Minneapolis-St. Paul from US Census 2000 database, we find that the number of clothing stores and the distribution of food stores at the zip code level follows power-law distribution.

  16. An agent-based hydroeconomic model to evaluate water policies in Jordan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, J.; Gorelick, S.

    2014-12-01

    Modern water systems can be characterized by a complex network of institutional and private actors that represent competing sectors and interests. Identifying solutions to enhance water security in such systems calls for analysis that can adequately account for this level of complexity and interaction. Our work focuses on the development of a hierarchical, multi-agent, hydroeconomic model that attempts to realistically represent complex interactions between hydrologic and multi-faceted human systems. The model is applied to Jordan, one of the most water-poor countries in the world. In recent years, the water crisis in Jordan has escalated due to an ongoing drought and influx of refugees from regional conflicts. We adopt a modular approach in which biophysical modules simulate natural and engineering phenomena, and human modules represent behavior at multiple scales of decision making. The human modules employ agent-based modeling, in which agents act as autonomous decision makers at the transboundary, state, organizational, and user levels. A systematic nomenclature and conceptual framework is used to characterize model agents and modules. Concepts from the Unified Modeling Language (UML) are adopted to promote clear conceptualization of model classes and process sequencing, establishing a foundation for full deployment of the integrated model in a scalable object-oriented programming environment. Although the framework is applied to the Jordanian water context, it is generalizable to other regional human-natural freshwater supply systems.

  17. Agent-Based Spatiotemporal Simulation of Biomolecular Systems within the Open Source MASON Framework

    PubMed Central

    Pérez-Rodríguez, Gael; Pérez-Pérez, Martín; Glez-Peña, Daniel; Azevedo, Nuno F.; Lourenço, Anália

    2015-01-01

    Agent-based modelling is being used to represent biological systems with increasing frequency and success. This paper presents the implementation of a new tool for biomolecular reaction modelling in the open source Multiagent Simulator of Neighborhoods framework. The rationale behind this new tool is the necessity to describe interactions at the molecular level to be able to grasp emergent and meaningful biological behaviour. We are particularly interested in characterising and quantifying the various effects that facilitate biocatalysis. Enzymes may display high specificity for their substrates and this information is crucial to the engineering and optimisation of bioprocesses. Simulation results demonstrate that molecule distributions, reaction rate parameters, and structural parameters can be adjusted separately in the simulation allowing a comprehensive study of individual effects in the context of realistic cell environments. While higher percentage of collisions with occurrence of reaction increases the affinity of the enzyme to the substrate, a faster reaction (i.e., turnover number) leads to a smaller number of time steps. Slower diffusion rates and molecular crowding (physical hurdles) decrease the collision rate of reactants, hence reducing the reaction rate, as expected. Also, the random distribution of molecules affects the results significantly. PMID:25874228

  18. A Model of Rapid Radicalization Behavior Using Agent-Based Modeling and Quorum Sensing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schwartz, Noah; Drucker, Nick; Campbell, Kenyth

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the dynamics of radicalization, especially rapid radicalization, has become increasingly important to US policy in the past several years. Traditionally, radicalization is considered a slow process, but recent social and political events demonstrate that the process can occur quickly. Examining this rapid process, in real time, is impossible. However, recreating an event using modeling and simulation (M&S) allows researchers to study some of the complex dynamics associated with rapid radicalization. We propose to adapt the biological mechanism of quorum sensing as a tool to explore, or possibly explain, rapid radicalization. Due to the complex nature of quorum sensing, M&S allows us to examine events that we could not otherwise examine in real time. For this study, we employ Agent Based Modeling (ABM), an M&S paradigm suited to modeling group behavior. The result of this study was the successful creation of rapid radicalization using quorum sensing. The Battle of Mogadishu was the inspiration for this model and provided the testing conditions used to explore quorum sensing and the ideas behind rapid radicalization. The final product has wider applicability however, using quorum sensing as a possible tool for examining other catalytic rapid radicalization events.

  19. A CSP-Based Agent Modeling Framework for the Cougaar Agent-Based Architecture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gracanin, Denis; Singh, H. Lally; Eltoweissy, Mohamed; Hinchey, Michael G.; Bohner, Shawn A.

    2005-01-01

    Cognitive Agent Architecture (Cougaar) is a Java-based architecture for large-scale distributed agent-based applications. A Cougaar agent is an autonomous software entity with behaviors that represent a real-world entity (e.g., a business process). A Cougaar-based Model Driven Architecture approach, currently under development, uses a description of system's functionality (requirements) to automatically implement the system in Cougaar. The Communicating Sequential Processes (CSP) formalism is used for the formal validation of the generated system. Two main agent components, a blackboard and a plugin, are modeled as CSP processes. A set of channels represents communications between the blackboard and individual plugins. The blackboard is represented as a CSP process that communicates with every agent in the collection. The developed CSP-based Cougaar modeling framework provides a starting point for a more complete formal verification of the automatically generated Cougaar code. Currently it is used to verify the behavior of an individual agent in terms of CSP properties and to analyze the corresponding Cougaar society.

  20. Combining Bayesian Networks and Agent Based Modeling to develop a decision-support model in Vietnam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nong, Bao Anh; Ertsen, Maurits; Schoups, Gerrit

    2016-04-01

    Complexity and uncertainty in natural resources management have been focus themes in recent years. Within these debates, with the aim to define an approach feasible for water management practice, we are developing an integrated conceptual modeling framework for simulating decision-making processes of citizens, in our case in the Day river area, Vietnam. The model combines Bayesian Networks (BNs) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). BNs are able to combine both qualitative data from consultants / experts / stakeholders, and quantitative data from observations on different phenomena or outcomes from other models. Further strengths of BNs are that the relationship between variables in the system is presented in a graphical interface, and that components of uncertainty are explicitly related to their probabilistic dependencies. A disadvantage is that BNs cannot easily identify the feedback of agents in the system once changes appear. Hence, ABM was adopted to represent the reaction among stakeholders under changes. The modeling framework is developed as an attempt to gain better understanding about citizen's behavior and factors influencing their decisions in order to reduce uncertainty in the implementation of water management policy.

  1. Evaluating Infection Prevention Strategies in Out-Patient Dialysis Units Using Agent-Based Modeling.

    PubMed

    Wares, Joanna R; Lawson, Barry; Shemin, Douglas; D'Agata, Erika M C

    2016-01-01

    Patients receiving chronic hemodialysis (CHD) are among the most vulnerable to infections caused by multidrug-resistant organisms (MDRO), which are associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. Current guidelines to reduce transmission of MDRO in the out-patient dialysis unit are targeted at patients considered to be high-risk for transmitting these organisms: those with infected skin wounds not contained by a dressing, or those with fecal incontinence or uncontrolled diarrhea. Here, we hypothesize that targeting patients receiving antimicrobial treatment would more effectively reduce transmission and acquisition of MDRO. We also hypothesize that environmental contamination plays a role in the dissemination of MDRO in the dialysis unit. To address our hypotheses, we built an agent-based model to simulate different treatment strategies in a dialysis unit. Our results suggest that reducing antimicrobial treatment, either by reducing the number of patients receiving treatment or by reducing the duration of the treatment, markedly reduces overall colonization rates and also the levels of environmental contamination in the dialysis unit. Our results also suggest that improving the environmental decontamination efficacy between patient dialysis treatments is an effective method for reducing colonization and contamination rates. These findings have important implications for the development and implementation of future infection prevention strategies. PMID:27195984

  2. A Framework for Model-Based Inquiry Through Agent-Based Programming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiang, Lin; Passmore, Cynthia

    2015-04-01

    There has been increased recognition in the past decades that model-based inquiry (MBI) is a promising approach for cultivating deep understandings by helping students unite phenomena and underlying mechanisms. Although multiple technology tools have been used to improve the effectiveness of MBI, there are not enough detailed examinations of how agent-based programmable modeling (ABPM) tools influence students' MBI learning. The present collective case study sought to contribute by closely investigating ABPM-supported MBI processes for 8th grade students learning about natural selection and adaptation. Eight 8th grade students in groups of 2-3 spent 15 h during a span of 4 weeks collaboratively programming simulations of adaptation based on the natural selection model, using an ABPM tool named NetLogo. The entire programming processes of these learning groups, up to 50 h, were videotaped and then analyzed using mixed methods. Our analysis revealed that the programming task created a context that calls for nine types of MBI actions. These MBI actions were related to both phenomena and the underlying model. Results also showed that students' programming processes took place in consecutive programming cycles and aligned with iterative MBI cycles. A framework for ABPM-supported MBI learning is proposed based upon the findings. Implications in developing MBI instruction involving ABPM tools are discussed.

  3. Agent based modeling of blood coagulation system: implementation using a GPU based high speed framework.

    PubMed

    Chen, Wenan; Ward, Kevin; Li, Qi; Kecman, Vojislav; Najarian, Kayvan; Menke, Nathan

    2011-01-01

    The coagulation and fibrinolytic systems are complex, inter-connected biological systems with major physiological roles. The complex, nonlinear multi-point relationships between the molecular and cellular constituents of two systems render a comprehensive and simultaneous study of the system at the microscopic and macroscopic level a significant challenge. We have created an Agent Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) approach for simulating these complex interactions. As the scale of agents increase, the time complexity and cost of the resulting simulations presents a significant challenge. As such, in this paper, we also present a high-speed framework for the coagulation simulation utilizing the computing power of graphics processing units (GPU). For comparison, we also implemented the simulations in NetLogo, Repast, and a direct C version. As our experiments demonstrate, the computational speed of the GPU implementation of the million-level scale of agents is over 10 times faster versus the C version, over 100 times faster versus the Repast version and over 300 times faster versus the NetLogo simulation. PMID:22254271

  4. Agent-based modeling of hyporheic dissolved organic carbon transport and transformation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gabrielsen, P. J.; Wilson, J. L.; Pullin, M.

    2011-12-01

    Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a complex suite of organic compounds present in natural ecosystems, and is particularly studied in river and stream systems. The hyporheic zone (HZ), a region of surface water-shallow groundwater exchange, has been identified as a hotspot of DOC processing and is generally regarded as a net sink of organic matter. More recent studies into stream DOC have shifted to examining DOC quality rather than bulk quantity. DOC quality variability has been linked to hydrologic and climatic variability, both focuses of current climate change research. A new agent-based model in the NetLogo modeling environment couples hydrologic transport with chemical and biological transformation of DOC to simulate changing DOC quality in hyporheic flow. A pore-scale model implements a Lattice Boltzmann fluid dynamic model and surficial interactions to simulate sorption and microbial uptake. Upscaled to a stream meander scale, this model displays spatial variation and evolution of DOC quality. Model output metrics are correlated to field sample analytical results from a hyporheic meander of the East Fork Jemez River, Sandoval Co., NM.

  5. Parallel Agent-Based Simulations on Clusters of GPUs and Multi-Core Processors

    SciTech Connect

    Aaby, Brandon G; Perumalla, Kalyan S; Seal, Sudip K

    2010-01-01

    An effective latency-hiding mechanism is presented in the parallelization of agent-based model simulations (ABMS) with millions of agents. The mechanism is designed to accommodate the hierarchical organization as well as heterogeneity of current state-of-the-art parallel computing platforms. We use it to explore the computation vs. communication trade-off continuum available with the deep computational and memory hierarchies of extant platforms and present a novel analytical model of the tradeoff. We describe our implementation and report preliminary performance results on two distinct parallel platforms suitable for ABMS: CUDA threads on multiple, networked graphical processing units (GPUs), and pthreads on multi-core processors. Message Passing Interface (MPI) is used for inter-GPU as well as inter-socket communication on a cluster of multiple GPUs and multi-core processors. Results indicate the benefits of our latency-hiding scheme, delivering as much as over 100-fold improvement in runtime for certain benchmark ABMS application scenarios with several million agents. This speed improvement is obtained on our system that is already two to three orders of magnitude faster on one GPU than an equivalent CPU-based execution in a popular simulator in Java. Thus, the overall execution of our current work is over four orders of magnitude faster when executed on multiple GPUs.

  6. An agent-based model of stock markets incorporating momentum investors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, J. R.; Huang, J. P.; Hui, P. M.

    2013-06-01

    It has been widely accepted that there exist investors who adopt momentum strategies in real stock markets. Understanding the momentum behavior is of both academic and practical importance. For this purpose, we propose and study a simple agent-based model of trading incorporating momentum investors and random investors. The random investors trade randomly all the time. The momentum investors could be idle, buying or selling, and they decide on their action by implementing an action threshold that assesses the most recent price movement. The model is able to reproduce some of the stylized facts observed in real markets, including the fat-tails in returns, weak long-term correlation and scaling behavior in the kurtosis of returns. An analytic treatment of the model relates the model parameters to several quantities that can be extracted from real data sets. To illustrate how the model can be applied, we show that real market data can be used to constrain the model parameters, which in turn provide information on the behavior of momentum investors in different markets.

  7. Fortune favours the bold: an agent-based model reveals adaptive advantages of overconfidence in war.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Dominic D P; Weidmann, Nils B; Cederman, Lars-Erik

    2011-01-01

    Overconfidence has long been considered a cause of war. Like other decision-making biases, overconfidence seems detrimental because it increases the frequency and costs of fighting. However, evolutionary biologists have proposed that overconfidence may also confer adaptive advantages: increasing ambition, resolve, persistence, bluffing opponents, and winning net payoffs from risky opportunities despite occasional failures. We report the results of an agent-based model of inter-state conflict, which allows us to evaluate the performance of different strategies in competition with each other. Counter-intuitively, we find that overconfident states predominate in the population at the expense of unbiased or underconfident states. Overconfident states win because: (1) they are more likely to accumulate resources from frequent attempts at conquest; (2) they are more likely to gang up on weak states, forcing victims to split their defences; and (3) when the decision threshold for attacking requires an overwhelming asymmetry of power, unbiased and underconfident states shirk many conflicts they are actually likely to win. These "adaptive advantages" of overconfidence may, via selection effects, learning, or evolved psychology, have spread and become entrenched among modern states, organizations and decision-makers. This would help to explain the frequent association of overconfidence and war, even if it no longer brings benefits today. PMID:21731627

  8. Fortune Favours the Bold: An Agent-Based Model Reveals Adaptive Advantages of Overconfidence in War

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Dominic D. P.; Weidmann, Nils B.; Cederman, Lars-Erik

    2011-01-01

    Overconfidence has long been considered a cause of war. Like other decision-making biases, overconfidence seems detrimental because it increases the frequency and costs of fighting. However, evolutionary biologists have proposed that overconfidence may also confer adaptive advantages: increasing ambition, resolve, persistence, bluffing opponents, and winning net payoffs from risky opportunities despite occasional failures. We report the results of an agent-based model of inter-state conflict, which allows us to evaluate the performance of different strategies in competition with each other. Counter-intuitively, we find that overconfident states predominate in the population at the expense of unbiased or underconfident states. Overconfident states win because: (1) they are more likely to accumulate resources from frequent attempts at conquest; (2) they are more likely to gang up on weak states, forcing victims to split their defences; and (3) when the decision threshold for attacking requires an overwhelming asymmetry of power, unbiased and underconfident states shirk many conflicts they are actually likely to win. These “adaptive advantages” of overconfidence may, via selection effects, learning, or evolved psychology, have spread and become entrenched among modern states, organizations and decision-makers. This would help to explain the frequent association of overconfidence and war, even if it no longer brings benefits today. PMID:21731627

  9. 6. View southwest, culvert inlet with canal bank completely removed. ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    6. View southwest, culvert inlet with canal bank completely removed. Left to right: back of headwall; tops of high inlet barrels; vertical transition wall between high inlet barrels and low, interior, inlet barrels; tops of low interior barrels; vertical heartening planks and low cutoff wall along former edge of canal bank; dewatered canal bed. - Delaware & Raritan Canal, Ten Mile Run Culvert, 1.5 miles South of Blackwells Road, East Millstone, Somerset County, NJ

  10. Designing an Agent-Based Learning Environment--A Preliminary Study on a Pre-Service Teacher Course

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woo, Huay Lit; Wang, Qiyun

    2005-01-01

    Background: Many of the agent-based products available to education today have been largely confined to games and instructional media that are often produced commercially by non-instructional professionals. Most of them lack customizability and are difficult to integrate into individual subject curriculum. With more agent authoring tools available…

  11. A Two-Stage Multi-Agent Based Assessment Approach to Enhance Students' Learning Motivation through Negotiated Skills Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chadli, Abdelhafid; Bendella, Fatima; Tranvouez, Erwan

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we present an Agent-based evaluation approach in a context of Multi-agent simulation learning systems. Our evaluation model is based on a two stage assessment approach: (1) a Distributed skill evaluation combining agents and fuzzy sets theory; and (2) a Negotiation based evaluation of students' performance during a training…

  12. Development of Mechanistic Reasoning and Multilevel Explanations of Ecology in Third Grade Using Agent-Based Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dickes, Amanda Catherine; Sengupta, Pratim; Farris, Amy Voss; Satabdi, Basu

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we present a third-grade ecology learning environment that integrates two forms of modeling--embodied modeling and agent-based modeling (ABMs)--through the generation of mathematical representations that are common to both forms of modeling. The term "agent" in the context of ABMs indicates individual computational objects…

  13. Constructing Knowledge with an Agent-Based Instructional Program: A Comparison of Cooperative and Individual Meaning Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moreno, Roxana

    2009-01-01

    Participants in the present study were 87 college students who learned about botany using an agent-based instructional program with three different learning approaches: individual, jigsaw, or cooperative learning. Results showed no differences among learning approaches on retention. Students in jigsaw groups reported higher cognitive load during…

  14. Application of text mining for customer evaluations in commercial banking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Jing; Du, Xiaojiang; Hao, Pengpeng; Wang, Yanbo J.

    2015-07-01

    Nowadays customer attrition is increasingly serious in commercial banks. To combat this problem roundly, mining customer evaluation texts is as important as mining customer structured data. In order to extract hidden information from customer evaluations, Textual Feature Selection, Classification and Association Rule Mining are necessary techniques. This paper presents all three techniques by using Chinese Word Segmentation, C5.0 and Apriori, and a set of experiments were run based on a collection of real textual data that includes 823 customer evaluations taken from a Chinese commercial bank. Results, consequent solutions, some advice for the commercial bank are given in this paper.

  15. Banking: shop and compare.

    PubMed

    O'Brien, Jennifer A; DeJarnette, Sherry

    2014-01-01

    There are many reasons to take a critical look at the practice's banking relationship(s)--technology advancements, security measures, improvements in available services, recent banking enhancements designed specifically for medical practices, the impact of the financial crisis on bank ratings and stability, changing practice needs, opportunities for operational automation at the practice--and it is just simply smart to periodically evaluate and compare the features, pricing, and potential savings offered by vendors. PMID:25108982

  16. Bank Record Processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1982-01-01

    Barnett Banks of Florida, Inc. operates 150 banking offices in 80 Florida cities. Banking offices have computerized systems for processing deposits or withdrawals in checking/savings accounts, and for handling commercial and installment loan transactions. In developing a network engineering design for the terminals used in record processing, an affiliate, Barnett Computing Company, used COSMIC's STATCOM program. This program provided a reliable network design tool and avoided the cost of developing new software.

  17. Biophysically Realistic Filament Bending Dynamics in Agent-Based Biological Simulation

    PubMed Central

    Alberts, Jonathan B.

    2009-01-01

    An appealing tool for study of the complex biological behaviors that can emerge from networks of simple molecular interactions is an agent-based, computational simulation that explicitly tracks small-scale local interactions – following thousands to millions of states through time. For many critical cell processes (e.g. cytokinetic furrow specification, nuclear centration, cytokinesis), the flexible nature of cytoskeletal filaments is likely to be critical. Any computer model that hopes to explain the complex emergent behaviors in these processes therefore needs to encode filament flexibility in a realistic manner. Here I present a numerically convenient and biophysically realistic method for modeling cytoskeletal filament flexibility in silico. Each cytoskeletal filament is represented by a series of rigid segments linked end-to-end in series with a variable attachment point for the translational elastic element. This connection scheme allows an empirically tuning, for a wide range of segment sizes, viscosities, and time-steps, that endows any filament species with the experimentally observed (or theoretically expected) static force deflection, relaxation time-constant, and thermal writhing motions. I additionally employ a unique pair of elastic elements – one representing the axial and the other the bending rigidity– that formulate the restoring force in terms of single time-step constraint resolution. This method is highly local –adjacent rigid segments of a filament only interact with one another through constraint forces—and is thus well-suited to simulations in which arbitrary additional forces (e.g. those representing interactions of a filament with other bodies or cross-links / entanglements between filaments) may be present. Implementation in code is straightforward; Java source code is available at www.celldynamics.org. PMID:19283085

  18. Agent Based Modelling Helps in Understanding the Rules by Which Fibroblasts Support Keratinocyte Colony Formation

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Tao; McMinn, Phil; Holcombe, Mike; Smallwood, Rod; MacNeil, Sheila

    2008-01-01

    Background Autologous keratincoytes are routinely expanded using irradiated mouse fibroblasts and bovine serum for clinical use. With growing concerns about the safety of these xenobiotic materials, it is desirable to culture keratinocytes in media without animal derived products. An improved understanding of epithelial/mesenchymal interactions could assist in this. Methodology/Principal Findings A keratincyte/fibroblast o-culture model was developed by extending an agent-based keratinocyte colony formation model to include the response of keratinocytes to both fibroblasts and serum. The model was validated by comparison of the in virtuo and in vitro multicellular behaviour of keratinocytes and fibroblasts in single and co-culture in Greens medium. To test the robustness of the model, several properties of the fibroblasts were changed to investigate their influence on the multicellular morphogenesis of keratinocyes and fibroblasts. The model was then used to generate hypotheses to explore the interactions of both proliferative and growth arrested fibroblasts with keratinocytes. The key predictions arising from the model which were confirmed by in vitro experiments were that 1) the ratio of fibroblasts to keratinocytes would critically influence keratinocyte colony expansion, 2) this ratio needed to be optimum at the beginning of the co-culture, 3) proliferative fibroblasts would be more effective than irradiated cells in expanding keratinocytes and 4) in the presence of an adequate number of fibroblasts, keratinocyte expansion would be independent of serum. Conclusions A closely associated computational and biological approach is a powerful tool for understanding complex biological systems such as the interactions between keratinocytes and fibroblasts. The key outcome of this study is the finding that the early addition of a critical ratio of proliferative fibroblasts can give rapid keratinocyte expansion without the use of irradiated mouse fibroblasts and bovine

  19. An Agent-based Simulation Model for C. difficile Infection Control

    PubMed Central

    Codella, James; Safdar, Nasia; Heffernan, Rick; Alagoz, Oguzhan

    2014-01-01

    Background. Control of C. difficile infection (CDI) is an increasingly difficult problem for healthcare institutions. There are commonly recommended strategies to combat CDI transmission such as oral vancomycin for CDI treatment, increased hand hygiene with soap and water for healthcare workers, daily environmental disinfection of infected patient rooms, and contact isolation of diseased patients. However, the efficacy of these strategies, particularly for endemic CDI, has not been well studied. The objective of this research is to develop a valid agent-based simulation model (ABM) to study C. difficile transmission and control in a mid-sized hospital. Methods. We develop an ABM of a mid-sized hospital with agents such as patients, healthcare workers, and visitors. We model the natural progression of CDI in a patient using a Markov chain and the transmission of CDI through agent and environmental interactions. We derive input parameters from aggregate patient data from the 2007-2010 Wisconsin Hospital Association and published medical literature. We define a calibration process, which we use to estimate transition probabilities of the Markov model by comparing simulation results to benchmark values found in published literature. Results. Comparing CDI control strategies implemented individually, routine bleach disinfection of CDI+ patient rooms provides the largest reduction in nosocomial asymptomatic colonizations (21.8%) and nosocomial CDIs (42.8%). Additionally, vancomycin treatment provides the largest reduction in relapse CDIs (41.9%), CDI-related mortalities (68.5%), and total patient LOS (21.6%). Conclusion. We develop a generalized ABM for CDI control that can be customized and further expanded to specific institutions and/or scenarios. Additionally, we estimate transition probabilities for a Markov model of natural CDI progression in a patient through calibration. PMID:25112595

  20. Stimulating household flood risk mitigation investments through insurance and subsidies: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    In the period 1998-2009, floods triggered roughly 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climate change and socio/economic trends are expected to further aggrevate floods losses in many regions. Research shows that flood risk can be significantly reduced if households install protective measures, and that the implementation of such measures can be stimulated through flood insurance schemes and subsidies. However, the effectiveness of such incentives to stimulate implementation of loss-reducing measures greatly depends on the decision process of individuals and is hardly studied. In our study, we developed an Agent-Based Model that integrates flood damage models, insurance mechanisms, subsidies, and household behaviour models to assess the effectiveness of different economic tools on stimulating households to invest in loss-reducing measures. Since the effectiveness depends on the decision making process of individuals, the study compares different household decision models ranging from standard economic models, to economic models for decision making under risk, to more complex decision models integrating economic models and risk perceptions, opinion dynamics, and the influence of flood experience. The results show the effectiveness of incentives to stimulate investment in loss-reducing measures for different household behavior types, while assuming climate change scenarios. It shows how complex decision models can better reproduce observed real-world behaviour compared to traditional economic models. Furthermore, since flood events are included in the simulations, the results provide an analysis of the dynamics in insured and uninsured losses for households, the costs of reducing risk by implementing loss-reducing measures, the capacity of the insurance market, and the cost of government subsidies under different scenarios. The model has been applied to the City of Rotterdam in The Netherlands.

  1. Diffusion of a Sustainable Farming Technique in Sri Lanka: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobi, J. H.; Gilligan, J. M.; Carrico, A. R.; Truelove, H. B.; Hornberger, G.

    2012-12-01

    We live in a changing world - anthropogenic climate change is disrupting historic climate patterns and social structures are shifting as large scale population growth and massive migrations place unprecedented strain on natural and social resources. Agriculture in many countries is affected by these changes in the social and natural environments. In Sri Lanka, rice farmers in the Mahaweli River watershed have seen increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation. In addition, a government led resettlement project has altered the demographics and social practices in villages throughout the watershed. These changes have the potential to impact rice yields in a country where self-sufficiency in rice production is a point of national pride. Studies of the climate can elucidate physical effects on rice production, while research on social behaviors can illuminate the influence of community dynamics on agricultural practices. Only an integrated approach, however, can capture the combined and interactive impacts of these global changes on Sri Lankan agricultural. As part of an interdisciplinary team, we present an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to studying the effects of physical and social changes on farmers in Sri Lanka. In our research, the diffusion of a sustainable farming technique, the system of rice intensification (SRI), throughout a farming community is modeled to identify factors that either inhibit or promote the spread of a more sustainable approach to rice farming. Inputs into the ABM are both physical and social and include temperature, precipitation, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), community trust, and social networks. Outputs from the ABM demonstrate the importance of meteorology and social structure on the diffusion of SRI throughout a farming community.

  2. A hybrid agent-based model of the developing mammary terminal end bud.

    PubMed

    Butner, Joseph D; Chuang, Yao-Li; Simbawa, Eman; Al-Fhaid, A S; Mahmoud, S R; Cristini, Vittorio; Wang, Zhihui

    2016-10-21

    Mammary gland ductal elongation is spearheaded by terminal end buds (TEBs), where populations of highly proliferative cells are maintained throughout post-pubertal organogenesis in virgin mice until the mammary fat pad is filled by a mature ductal tree. We have developed a hybrid multiscale agent-based model to study how cellular differentiation pathways, cellular proliferation capacity, and endocrine and paracrine signaling play a role during development of the mammary gland. A simplified cellular phenotypic hierarchy that includes stem, progenitor, and fully differentiated cells within the TEB was implemented. Model analysis finds that mammary gland development was highly sensitive to proliferation events within the TEB, with progenitors likely undergoing 2-3 proliferation cycles before transitioning to a non-proliferative phenotype, and this result is in agreement with our previous experimental work. Endocrine and paracrine signaling were found to provide reliable ductal elongation rate regulation, while variations in the probability a new daughter cell will be of a proliferative phenotype were seen to have minimal effects on ductal elongation rates. Moreover, the distribution of cellular phenotypes within the TEB was highly heterogeneous, demonstrating significant allowable plasticity in possible phenotypic distributions while maintaining biologically relevant growth behavior. Finally, simulation results indicate ductal elongation rates due to cellular proliferation within the TEB may have a greater sensitivity to upstream endocrine signaling than endothelial to stromal paracrine signaling within the TEB. This model provides a useful tool to gain quantitative insights into cellular population dynamics and the effects of endocrine and paracrine signaling within the pubertal terminal end bud. PMID:27475843

  3. An agent-based model for water management and planning in the Lake Naivasha basin, Kenya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Oel, Pieter; Mulatu, Dawit; Odongo, Vincent; Onyando, Japheth; Becht, Robert; van der Veen, Anne

    2013-04-01

    A variety of human and natural processes influence the ecological and economic state of the Lake Naivasha basin. The ecological wealth and recent economic developments in the area are strongly connected to Lake Naivasha which supports a rich variety of flora, mammal and bird species. Many human activities depend on clean freshwater from the lake whereas recently the freshwater availability of good quality is seriously influenced by water abstractions and the use of fertilizers in agriculture. Management alternatives include those aiming at limiting water abstractions and fertilizer use. A possible way to achieve reduced use of water and fertilizers is the introduction of Payment for Environmental Services (PES) schemes. As the Lake Naivasha basin and its population have experienced increasing pressures various disputes and disagreements have arisen about the processes responsible for the problems experienced, and the effectively of management alternatives. Beside conflicts of interest and disagreements on responsibilities there are serious factual disagreements. To share scientific knowledge on the effects of the socio-ecological system processes on the Lake Naivasha basin, tools may be used that expose information at temporal and spatial scales that are meaningful to stakeholders. In this study we use a spatially-explicit agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to depict the interactions between socio-economic and natural subsystems for supporting a more sustainable governance of the river basin resources. Agents consider alternative livelihood strategies and decide to go for the one they perceive as likely to be most profitable. Agents may predict and sense the availability of resources and also can observe economic performance achieved by neighbouring agents. Results are presented at the basin and subbasin level to provide relevant knowledge to Water Resources Users Associations which are important collective forums for water management through which PES schemes

  4. An agent-based model of dialect evolution in killer whales.

    PubMed

    Filatova, Olga A; Miller, Patrick J O

    2015-05-21

    The killer whale is one of the few animal species with vocal dialects that arise from socially learned group-specific call repertoires. We describe a new agent-based model of killer whale populations and test a set of vocal-learning rules to assess which mechanisms may lead to the formation of dialect groupings observed in the wild. We tested a null model with genetic transmission and no learning, and ten models with learning rules that differ by template source (mother or matriline), variation type (random errors or innovations) and type of call change (no divergence from kin vs. divergence from kin). The null model without vocal learning did not produce the pattern of group-specific call repertoires we observe in nature. Learning from either mother alone or the entire matriline with calls changing by random errors produced a graded distribution of the call phenotype, without the discrete call types observed in nature. Introducing occasional innovation or random error proportional to matriline variance yielded more or less discrete and stable call types. A tendency to diverge from the calls of related matrilines provided fast divergence of loose call clusters. A pattern resembling the dialect diversity observed in the wild arose only when rules were applied in combinations and similar outputs could arise from different learning rules and their combinations. Our results emphasize the lack of information on quantitative features of wild killer whale dialects and reveal a set of testable questions that can draw insights into the cultural evolution of killer whale dialects. PMID:25817037

  5. Agent Based Modeling of Air Carrier Behavior for Evaluation of Technology Equipage and Adoption

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horio, Brant M.; DeCicco, Anthony H.; Stouffer, Virginia L.; Hasan, Shahab; Rosenbaum, Rebecca L.; Smith, Jeremy C.

    2014-01-01

    As part of ongoing research, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and LMI developed a research framework to assist policymakers in identifying impacts on the U.S. air transportation system (ATS) of potential policies and technology related to the implementation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). This framework, called the Air Transportation System Evolutionary Simulation (ATS-EVOS), integrates multiple models into a single process flow to best simulate responses by U.S. commercial airlines and other ATS stakeholders to NextGen-related policies, and in turn, how those responses impact the ATS. Development of this framework required NASA and LMI to create an agent-based model of airline and passenger behavior. This Airline Evolutionary Simulation (AIRLINE-EVOS) models airline decisions about tactical airfare and schedule adjustments, and strategic decisions related to fleet assignments, market prices, and equipage. AIRLINE-EVOS models its own heterogeneous population of passenger agents that interact with airlines; this interaction allows the model to simulate the cycle of action-reaction as airlines compete with each other and engage passengers. We validated a baseline configuration of AIRLINE-EVOS against Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) data and subject matter expert opinion, and we verified the ATS-EVOS framework and agent behavior logic through scenario-based experiments. These experiments demonstrated AIRLINE-EVOS's capabilities in responding to an input price shock in fuel prices, and to equipage challenges in a series of analyses based on potential incentive policies for best equipped best served, optimal-wind routing, and traffic management initiative exemption concepts..

  6. Age-correlated stress resistance improves fitness of yeast: support from agent-based simulations

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Resistance to stress is often heterogeneous among individuals within a population, which helps protect against intermittent stress (bet hedging). This is also the case for heat shock resistance in the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Interestingly, the resistance appears to be continuously distributed (vs. binary, switch-like) and correlated with replicative age (vs. random). Older, slower-growing cells are more resistant than younger, faster-growing ones. Is there a fitness benefit to age-correlated stress resistance? Results Here this hypothesis is explored using a simple agent-based model, which simulates a population of individual cells that grow and replicate. Cells age by accumulating damage, which lowers their growth rate. They synthesize trehalose at a metabolic cost, which helps protect against heat shock. Proteins Tsl1 and Tps3 (trehalose synthase complex regulatory subunit TSL1 and TPS3) represent the trehalose synthesis complex and they are expressed using constant, age-dependent and stochastic terms. The model was constrained by calibration and comparison to data from the literature, including individual-based observations obtained using high-throughput microscopy and flow cytometry. A heterogeneity network was developed, which highlights the predominant sources and pathways of resistance heterogeneity. To determine the best trehalose synthesis strategy, model strains with different Tsl1/Tps3 expression parameters were placed in competition in an environment with intermittent heat shocks. Conclusions For high severities and low frequencies of heat shock, the winning strain used an age-dependent bet hedging strategy, which shows that there can be a benefit to age-correlated stress resistance. The study also illustrates the utility of combining individual-based observations and modeling to understand mechanisms underlying population heterogeneity, and the effect on fitness. PMID:24529069

  7. An agent-based simulation of extirpation of Ceratitis capitata applied to invasions in California.

    PubMed

    Manoukis, Nicholas C; Hoffman, Kevin

    2014-01-01

    We present an agent-based simulation (ABS) of Ceratitis capitata ("Medfly") developed for estimating the time to extirpation of this pest in areas where quarantines and eradication treatments were immediately imposed. We use the ABS, implemented in the program MED-FOES, to study seven different outbreaks that occurred in Southern California from 2008 to 2010. Results are compared with the length of intervention and quarantine imposed by the State, based on a linear developmental model (thermal unit accumulation, or "degree-day"). MED-FOES is a useful tool for invasive species managers as it incorporates more information from the known biology of the Medfly, and includes the important feature of being demographically explicit, providing significant improvements over simple degree-day calculations. While there was general agreement between the length of quarantine by degree-day and the time to extirpation indicated by MED-FOES, the ABS suggests that the margin of safety varies among cases and that in two cases the quarantine may have been excessively long. We also examined changes in the number of individuals over time in MED-FOES and conducted a sensitivity analysis for one of the outbreaks to explore the role of various input parameters on simulation outcomes. While our implementation of the ABS in this work is motivated by C. capitata and takes extirpation as a postulate, the simulation is very flexible and can be used to study a variety of questions on the invasion biology of pest insects and methods proposed to manage or eradicate such species. PMID:24563646

  8. Agent based modeling of "crowdinforming" as a means of load balancing at emergency departments.

    PubMed

    Neighbour, Ryan; Oppenheimer, Luis; Mukhi, Shamir N; Friesen, Marcia R; McLeod, Robert D

    2010-01-01

    This work extends ongoing development of a framework for modeling the spread of contact-transmission infectious diseases. The framework is built upon Agent Based Modeling (ABM), with emphasis on urban scale modelling integrated with institutional models of hospital emergency departments. The method presented here includes ABM modeling an outbreak of influenza-like illness (ILI) with concomitant surges at hospital emergency departments, and illustrates the preliminary modeling of 'crowdinforming' as an intervention. 'Crowdinforming', a component of 'crowdsourcing', is characterized as the dissemination of collected and processed information back to the 'crowd' via public access. The objective of the simulation is to allow for effective policy evaluation to better inform the public of expected wait times as part of their decision making process in attending an emergency department or clinic. In effect, this is a means of providing additional decision support garnered from a simulation, prior to real world implementation. The conjecture is that more optimal service delivery can be achieved under balanced patient loads, compared to situations where some emergency departments are overextended while others are underutilized. Load balancing optimization is a common notion in many operations, and the simulation illustrates that 'crowdinforming' is a potential tool when used as a process control parameter to balance the load at emergency departments as well as serving as an effective means to direct patients during an ILI outbreak with temporary clinics deployed. The information provided in the 'crowdinforming' model is readily available in a local context, although it requires thoughtful consideration in its interpretation. The extension to a wider dissemination of information via a web service is readily achievable and presents no technical obstacles, although political obstacles may be present. The 'crowdinforming' simulation is not limited to arrivals of patients at

  9. Backward running or absence of running from Creutz ratios

    SciTech Connect

    Giedt, Joel; Weinberg, Evan

    2011-10-01

    We extract the running coupling based on Creutz ratios in SU(2) lattice gauge theory with two Dirac fermions in the adjoint representation. Depending on how the extrapolation to zero fermion mass is performed, either backward running or an absence of running is observed at strong bare coupling. This behavior is consistent with other findings which indicate that this theory has an infrared fixed point.

  10. 12 CFR 917.10 - Bank bylaws.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Bank bylaws. 917.10 Section 917.10 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT OF THE FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANKS POWERS AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF BANK BOARDS OF DIRECTORS AND SENIOR MANAGEMENT § 917.10 Bank bylaws. A Bank's board...

  11. 12 CFR 917.10 - Bank bylaws.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Bank bylaws. 917.10 Section 917.10 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT OF THE FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANKS POWERS AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF BANK BOARDS OF DIRECTORS AND SENIOR MANAGEMENT § 917.10 Bank bylaws. A Bank's board...

  12. 12 CFR 917.10 - Bank bylaws.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Bank bylaws. 917.10 Section 917.10 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT OF THE FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANKS POWERS AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF BANK BOARDS OF DIRECTORS AND SENIOR MANAGEMENT § 917.10 Bank bylaws. A Bank's board...

  13. 12 CFR 917.10 - Bank bylaws.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Bank bylaws. 917.10 Section 917.10 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT OF THE FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANKS POWERS AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF BANK BOARDS OF DIRECTORS AND SENIOR MANAGEMENT § 917.10 Bank bylaws. A Bank's board...

  14. 12 CFR 917.10 - Bank bylaws.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Bank bylaws. 917.10 Section 917.10 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT OF THE FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANKS POWERS AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF BANK BOARDS OF DIRECTORS AND SENIOR MANAGEMENT § 917.10 Bank bylaws. A Bank's board...

  15. The QCD running coupling

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Deur, Alexandre; Brodsky, Stanley J.; de Téramond, Guy F.

    2016-05-09

    Here, we review present knowledge onmore » $$\\alpha_{s}$$, the Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) running coupling. The dependence of $$\\alpha_s(Q^2)$$ on momentum transfer $Q$ encodes the underlying dynamics of hadron physics --from color confinement in the infrared domain to asymptotic freedom at short distances. We will survey our present theoretical and empirical knowledge of $$\\alpha_s(Q^2)$$, including constraints at high $Q^2$ predicted by perturbative QCD, and constraints at small $Q^2$ based on models of nonperturbative dynamics. In the first, introductory, part of this review, we explain the phenomenological meaning of the coupling, the reason for its running, and the challenges facing a complete understanding of its analytic behavior in the infrared domain. In the second, more technical, part of the review, we discuss $$\\alpha_s(Q^2)$$ in the high momentum transfer domain of QCD. We review how $$\\alpha_s$$ is defined, including its renormalization scheme dependence, the definition of its renormalization scale, the utility of effective charges, as well as `` Commensurate Scale Relations" which connect the various definitions of the QCD coupling without renormalization scale ambiguity. We also report recent important experimental measurements and advanced theoretical analyses which have led to precise QCD predictions at high energy. As an example of an important optimization procedure, we discuss the ``Principle of Maximum Conformality" which enhances QCD's predictive power by removing the dependence of the predictions for physical observables on the choice of the gauge and renormalization scheme. In last part of the review, we discuss $$\\alpha_s(Q^2)$$ in the low momentum transfer domain, where there has been no consensus on how to define $$\\alpha_s(Q^2)$$ or its analytic behavior. We will discuss the various approaches used for low energy calculations. Among them, we will discuss the light-front holographic approach to QCD in the strongly coupled

  16. The QCD running coupling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deur, Alexandre; Brodsky, Stanley J.; de Téramond, Guy F.

    2016-09-01

    We review the present theoretical and empirical knowledge for αs, the fundamental coupling underlying the interactions of quarks and gluons in Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD). The dependence of αs(Q2) on momentum transfer Q encodes the underlying dynamics of hadron physics-from color confinement in the infrared domain to asymptotic freedom at short distances. We review constraints on αs(Q2) at high Q2, as predicted by perturbative QCD, and its analytic behavior at small Q2, based on models of nonperturbative dynamics. In the introductory part of this review, we explain the phenomenological meaning of the coupling, the reason for its running, and the challenges facing a complete understanding of its analytic behavior in the infrared domain. In the second, more technical, part of the review, we discuss the behavior of αs(Q2) in the high momentum transfer domain of QCD. We review how αs is defined, including its renormalization scheme dependence, the definition of its renormalization scale, the utility of effective charges, as well as "Commensurate Scale Relations" which connect the various definitions of the QCD coupling without renormalization-scale ambiguity. We also report recent significant measurements and advanced theoretical analyses which have led to precise QCD predictions at high energy. As an example of an important optimization procedure, we discuss the "Principle of Maximum Conformality", which enhances QCD's predictive power by removing the dependence of the predictions for physical observables on the choice of theoretical conventions such as the renormalization scheme. In the last part of the review, we discuss the challenge of understanding the analytic behavior αs(Q2) in the low momentum transfer domain. We survey various theoretical models for the nonperturbative strongly coupled regime, such as the light-front holographic approach to QCD. This new framework predicts the form of the quark-confinement potential underlying hadron spectroscopy and

  17. An agent-based system for re-annotation of genomes.

    PubMed

    Nascimento, Leonardo Vianna do; Bazzan, Ana L C

    2005-01-01

    Genome annotation projects can produce incorrect results if they are based on obsolete data or inappropriate models. We have developed an automatic re-annotation system that uses agents to perform repetitive tasks and reports the results to the user. These tasks involve BLAST searches on biological databases (GenBank) and the use of detection tools (Genemark and Glimmer) to identify new open reading frames. Several agents execute these tools and combine their results to produce a list of open reading frames that is sent back to the user. Our goal was to reduce the manual work, executing most tasks automatically by computational tools. A prototype was implemented and validated using Mycoplasma pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae original annotated genomes. The results reported by the system identify most of new features present in the re-annotated versions of these genomes. PMID:16342042

  18. Biodiversity conservation in running waters

    SciTech Connect

    Allan, J.D. ); Flecker, A.S. )

    1993-01-01

    In the concerns about biodiversity conservation, fresh waters have received less attention than tropical forests and oceans. However, running waters harbor a diverse panoply of species, habitats, and ecosystems, including some of the most threatened and many having great value to human society. An overview of the biological diversity of running waters and the state of imperilment is presented. Six major factors that threaten destruction of running water species and ecosystems are discussed: habitat loss and degradation; species invasions; overharvesting; secondary extinctions; chemical and organic pollution; global climate change. General measures for recovery and restoration of running waters conclude the article.

  19. A Running Start: Resource Guide for Youth Running Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jenny, Seth; Becker, Andrew; Armstrong, Tess

    2016-01-01

    The lack of physical activity is an epidemic problem among American youth today. In order to combat this, many schools are incorporating youth running programs as a part of their comprehensive school physical activity programs. These youth running programs are being implemented before or after school, at school during recess at the elementary…

  20. American Association of Tissue Banks

    MedlinePlus

    ... through the Gift of Cells and Tissues Tissue Bank Specialist Certification AATB offers a program for Certification ... AATB conferences, workshops, webinars & CTBS Exam prep >> Accredited Bank Search AATB's Accreditation Program ensures that tissue-banking ...

  1. iBank

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bermundo, Cesar B.; Bermundo, Alex B.; Ballester, Rex C.

    2012-01-01

    iBank is a project that utilizes a software to create an item Bank that store quality questions, generate test and print exam. The items are from analyze teacher-constructed test questions that provides the basis for discussing test results, by determining why a test item is or not discriminating between the better and poorer students, and by…

  2. GenBank

    PubMed Central

    Benson, Dennis A.; Clark, Karen; Karsch-Mizrachi, Ilene; Lipman, David J.; Ostell, James; Sayers, Eric W.

    2014-01-01

    GenBank® is a comprehensive database that contains publicly available nucleotide sequences for over 280 000 formally described species. These sequences are obtained primarily through submissions from individual laboratories and batch submissions from large-scale sequencing projects, including whole-genome shotgun and environmental sampling projects. Most submissions are made using the web-based BankIt or standalone Sequin programs, and GenBank staff assign accession numbers upon data receipt. Daily data exchange with the European Nucleotide Archive and the DNA Data Bank of Japan ensures worldwide coverage. GenBank is accessible through the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) Entrez retrieval system, which integrates data from the major DNA and protein sequence databases along with taxonomy, genome, mapping, protein structure and domain information, and the biomedical journal literature via PubMed. BLAST provides sequence similarity searches of GenBank and other sequence databases. Complete bimonthly releases and daily updates of the GenBank database are available by FTP. To access GenBank and its related retrieval and analysis services, begin at the NCBI home page: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov. PMID:24217914

  3. GenBank

    PubMed Central

    Benson, Dennis A.; Cavanaugh, Mark; Clark, Karen; Karsch-Mizrachi, Ilene; Lipman, David J.; Ostell, James; Sayers, Eric W.

    2013-01-01

    GenBank® (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov) is a comprehensive database that contains publicly available nucleotide sequences for almost 260 000 formally described species. These sequences are obtained primarily through submissions from individual laboratories and batch submissions from large-scale sequencing projects, including whole-genome shotgun (WGS) and environmental sampling projects. Most submissions are made using the web-based BankIt or standalone Sequin programs, and GenBank staff assigns accession numbers upon data receipt. Daily data exchange with the European Nucleotide Archive (ENA) and the DNA Data Bank of Japan (DDBJ) ensures worldwide coverage. GenBank is accessible through the NCBI Entrez retrieval system, which integrates data from the major DNA and protein sequence databases along with taxonomy, genome, mapping, protein structure and domain information, and the biomedical journal literature via PubMed. BLAST provides sequence similarity searches of GenBank and other sequence databases. Complete bimonthly releases and daily updates of the GenBank database are available by FTP. To access GenBank and its related retrieval and analysis services, begin at the NCBI home page: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov. PMID:23193287

  4. GenBank

    PubMed Central

    Benson, Dennis A.; Karsch-Mizrachi, Ilene; Clark, Karen; Lipman, David J.; Ostell, James; Sayers, Eric W.

    2012-01-01

    GenBank® is a comprehensive database that contains publicly available nucleotide sequences for more than 250 000 formally described species. These sequences are obtained primarily through submissions from individual laboratories and batch submissions from large-scale sequencing projects, including whole-genome shotgun (WGS) and environmental sampling projects. Most submissions are made using the web-based BankIt or standalone Sequin programs, and accession numbers are assigned by GenBank staff upon receipt. Daily data exchange with the European Nucleotide Archive (ENA) and the DNA Data Bank of Japan (DDBJ) ensures worldwide coverage. GenBank is accessible through the NCBI Entrez retrieval system, which integrates data from the major DNA and protein sequence databases along with taxonomy, genome, mapping, protein structure and domain information, and the biomedical journal literature via PubMed. BLAST provides sequence similarity searches of GenBank and other sequence databases. Complete bimonthly releases and daily updates of the GenBank database are available by FTP. To access GenBank and its related retrieval and analysis services, begin at the NCBI home page: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov. PMID:22144687

  5. Volunteer Community Language Bank.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Novak, Sigfrid S.; And Others

    Lake Charles, Louisiana established a language bank capable of providing interpreters for 20 foreign languages. All participants are volunteers who offer to help free of charge in case of emergencies arising because of the considerable numbers of foreign visitors in the area. Smooth operation of the language bank depends on the following: (1) an…

  6. GenBank

    PubMed Central

    Clark, Karen; Karsch-Mizrachi, Ilene; Lipman, David J.; Ostell, James; Sayers, Eric W.

    2016-01-01

    GenBank® (www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/genbank/) is a comprehensive database that contains publicly available nucleotide sequences for over 340 000 formally described species. Recent developments include a new starting page for submitters, a shift toward using accession.version identifiers rather than GI numbers, a wizard for submitting 16S rRNA sequences, and an Identical Protein Report to address growing issues of data redundancy. GenBank organizes the sequence data received from individual laboratories and large-scale sequencing projects into 18 divisions, and GenBank staff assign unique accession.version identifiers upon data receipt. Most submitters use the web-based BankIt or standalone Sequin programs. Daily data exchange with the European Nucleotide Archive (ENA) and the DNA Data Bank of Japan (DDBJ) ensures worldwide coverage. GenBank is accessible through the nuccore, nucest, and nucgss databases of the Entrez retrieval system, which integrates these records with a variety of other data including taxonomy nodes, genomes, protein structures, and biomedical journal literature in PubMed. BLAST provides sequence similarity searches of GenBank and other sequence databases. Complete bimonthly releases and daily updates of the GenBank database are available by FTP. PMID:26590407

  7. An operational epidemiological model for calibrating agent-based simulations of pandemic influenza outbreaks.

    PubMed

    Prieto, D; Das, T K

    2016-03-01

    Uncertainty of pandemic influenza viruses continue to cause major preparedness challenges for public health policymakers. Decisions to mitigate influenza outbreaks often involve tradeoff between the social costs of interventions (e.g., school closure) and the cost of uncontrolled spread of the virus. To achieve a balance, policymakers must assess the impact of mitigation strategies once an outbreak begins and the virus characteristics are known. Agent-based (AB) simulation is a useful tool for building highly granular disease spread models incorporating the epidemiological features of the virus as well as the demographic and social behavioral attributes of tens of millions of affected people. Such disease spread models provide excellent basis on which various mitigation strategies can be tested, before they are adopted and implemented by the policymakers. However, to serve as a testbed for the mitigation strategies, the AB simulation models must be operational. A critical requirement for operational AB models is that they are amenable for quick and simple calibration. The calibration process works as follows: the AB model accepts information available from the field and uses those to update its parameters such that some of its outputs in turn replicate the field data. In this paper, we present our epidemiological model based calibration methodology that has a low computational complexity and is easy to interpret. Our model accepts a field estimate of the basic reproduction number, and then uses it to update (calibrate) the infection probabilities in a way that its effect combined with the effects of the given virus epidemiology, demographics, and social behavior results in an infection pattern yielding a similar value of the basic reproduction number. We evaluate the accuracy of the calibration methodology by applying it for an AB simulation model mimicking a regional outbreak in the US. The calibrated model is shown to yield infection patterns closely replicating

  8. A risk assessment example for soil invertebrates using spatially explicit agent-based models.

    PubMed

    Reed, Melissa; Alvarez, Tania; Chelinho, Sónia; Forbes, Valery; Johnston, Alice; Meli, Mattia; Voss, Frank; Pastorok, Rob

    2016-01-01

    Current risk assessment methods for measuring the toxicity of plant protection products (PPPs) on soil invertebrates use standardized laboratory conditions to determine acute effects on mortality and sublethal effects on reproduction. If an unacceptable risk is identified at the lower tier, population-level effects are assessed using semifield and field trials at a higher tier because modeling methods for extrapolating available lower-tier information to population effects have not yet been implemented. Field trials are expensive, time consuming, and cannot be applied to variable landscape scenarios. Mechanistic modeling of the toxicological effects of PPPs on individuals and their responses combined with simulation of population-level response shows great potential in fulfilling such a need, aiding ecologically informed extrapolation. Here, we introduce and demonstrate the potential of 2 population models for ubiquitous soil invertebrates (collembolans and earthworms) as refinement options in current risk assessment. Both are spatially explicit agent-based models (ABMs), incorporating individual and landscape variability. The models were used to provide refined risk assessments for different application scenarios of a hypothetical pesticide applied to potato crops (full-field spray onto the soil surface [termed "overall"], in-furrow, and soil-incorporated pesticide applications). In the refined risk assessment, the population models suggest that soil invertebrate populations would likely recover within 1 year after pesticide application, regardless of application method. The population modeling for both soil organisms also illustrated that a lower predicted average environmental concentration in soil (PECsoil) could potentially lead to greater effects at the population level, depending on the spatial heterogeneity of the pesticide and the behavior of the soil organisms. Population-level effects of spatial-temporal variations in exposure were elucidated in the

  9. Agent-based evacuation simulation for spatial allocation assessment of urban shelters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Jia; Wen, Jiahong; Jiang, Yong

    2015-12-01

    The construction of urban shelters is one of the most important work in urban planning and disaster prevention. The spatial allocation assessment is a fundamental pre-step for spatial location-allocation of urban shelters. This paper introduces a new method which makes use of agent-based technology to implement evacuation simulation so as to conduct dynamic spatial allocation assessment of urban shelters. The method can not only accomplish traditional geospatial evaluation for urban shelters, but also simulate the evacuation process of the residents to shelters. The advantage of utilizing this method lies into three aspects: (1) the evacuation time of each citizen from a residential building to the shelter can be estimated more reasonably; (2) the total evacuation time of all the residents in a region is able to be obtained; (3) the road congestions in evacuation in sheltering can be detected so as to take precautionary measures to prevent potential risks. In this study, three types of agents are designed: shelter agents, government agents and resident agents. Shelter agents select specified land uses as shelter candidates for different disasters. Government agents delimitate the service area of each shelter, in other words, regulate which shelter a person should take, in accordance with the administrative boundaries and road distance between the person's position and the location of the shelter. Resident agents have a series of attributes, such as ages, positions, walking speeds, and so on. They also have several behaviors, such as reducing speed when walking in the crowd, helping old people and children, and so on. Integrating these three types of agents which are correlated with each other, evacuation procedures can be simulated and dynamic allocation assessment of shelters will be achieved. A case study in Jing'an District, Shanghai, China, was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the method. A scenario of earthquake disaster which occurs in nighttime

  10. Designing across ages: Multi-agent-based models and learning electricity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sengupta, Pratim

    Electricity is regarded as one of the most challenging topics for students at all levels -- middle school -- college (Cohen, Eylon, & Ganiel, 1983; Belcher & Olbert, 2003; Eylon & Ganiel, 1990; Steinberg et al., 1985). Several researchers have suggested that naive misconceptions about electricity stem from a deep incommensurability (Slotta & Chi, 2006; Chi, 2005) or incompatibility (Chi, Slotta & Leauw, 1994; Reiner, Slotta, Chi, & Resnick, 2000) between naive and expert knowledge structures. I first present an alternative theoretical framework that adopts an emergent levels-based perspective as proposed by Wilensky & Resnick (1999). From this perspective, macro-level phenomena such as electric current and resistance, as well as behavior of linear electric circuits, can be conceived of as emergent from simple, body-syntonic interactions between electrons and ions in a circuit. I argue that adopting such a perspective enables us to reconceive commonly noted misconceptions in electricity as behavioral evidences of "slippage between levels" -- i.e., these misconceptions appear when otherwise productive knowledge elements are sometimes inappropriately activated due to certain macro-level phenomenological cues only -- and, that the same knowledge elements when activated due to phenomenological cues at both micro- and macro-levels, can engender a deeper, expert-like understanding. I will then introduce NIELS (NetLogo Investigations In Electromagnetism, Sengupta & Wilensky, 2006, 2008, 2009), a low-threshold high-ceiling (LTHC) learning environment of multi-agent-based computational models that represent phenomena such as electric current and resistance, as well as the behavior of linear electric circuits, as emergent. I also present results from implementations of NIELS in 5th, 7th and 12th grade classrooms that show the following: (a) how leveraging certain "design elements" over others in NIELS models can create new phenomenological cues, which in turn can be

  11. Building v/s Exploring Models: Comparing Learning of Evolutionary Processes through Agent-based Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagh, Aditi

    Two strands of work motivate the three studies in this dissertation. Evolutionary change can be viewed as a computational complex system in which a small set of rules operating at the individual level result in different population level outcomes under different conditions. Extensive research has documented students' difficulties with learning about evolutionary change (Rosengren et al., 2012), particularly in terms of levels slippage (Wilensky & Resnick, 1999). Second, though building and using computational models is becoming increasingly common in K-12 science education, we know little about how these two modalities compare. This dissertation adopts agent-based modeling as a representational system to compare these modalities in the conceptual context of micro-evolutionary processes. Drawing on interviews, Study 1 examines middle-school students' productive ways of reasoning about micro-evolutionary processes to find that the specific framing of traits plays a key role in whether slippage explanations are cued. Study 2, which was conducted in 2 schools with about 150 students, forms the crux of the dissertation. It compares learning processes and outcomes when students build their own models or explore a pre-built model. Analysis of Camtasia videos of student pairs reveals that builders' and explorers' ways of accessing rules, and sense-making of observed trends are of a different character. Builders notice rules through available blocks-based primitives, often bypassing their enactment while explorers attend to rules primarily through the enactment. Moreover, builders' sense-making of observed trends is more rule-driven while explorers' is more enactment-driven. Pre and posttests reveal that builders manifest a greater facility with accessing rules, providing explanations manifesting targeted assembly. Explorers use rules to construct explanations manifesting non-targeted assembly. Interviews reveal varying degrees of shifts away from slippage in both

  12. Examining the Relationship between Pre-Malignant Breast Lesions, Carcinogenesis and Tumor Evolution in the Mammary Epithelium Using an Agent-Based Model

    PubMed Central

    Chapa, Joaquin; An, Gary; Kulkarni, Swati A.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Breast cancer, the product of numerous rare mutational events that occur over an extended time period, presents numerous challenges to investigators interested in studying the transformation from normal breast epithelium to malignancy using traditional laboratory methods, particularly with respect to characterizing transitional and pre-malignant states. Dynamic computational modeling can provide insight into these pathophysiological dynamics, and as such we use a previously validated agent-based computational model of the mammary epithelium (the DEABM) to investigate the probabilistic mechanisms by which normal populations of ductal cells could transform into states replicating features of both pre-malignant breast lesions and a diverse set of breast cancer subtypes. Methods The DEABM consists of simulated cellular populations governed by algorithms based on accepted and previously published cellular mechanisms. Cells respond to hormones, undergo mitosis, apoptosis and cellular differentiation. Heritable mutations to 12 genes prominently implicated in breast cancer are acquired via a probabilistic mechanism. 3000 simulations of the 40-year period of menstrual cycling were run in wild-type (WT) and BRCA1-mutated groups. Simulations were analyzed by development of hyperplastic states, incidence of malignancy, hormone receptor and HER-2 status, frequency of mutation to particular genes, and whether mutations were early events in carcinogenesis. Results Cancer incidence in WT (2.6%) and BRCA1-mutated (45.9%) populations closely matched published epidemiologic rates. Hormone receptor expression profiles in both WT and BRCA groups also closely matched epidemiologic data. Hyperplastic populations carried more mutations than normal populations and mutations were similar to early mutations found in ER+ tumors (telomerase, E-cadherin, TGFB, RUNX3, p < .01). ER- tumors carried significantly more mutations and carried more early mutations in BRCA1, c-MYC and genes

  13. A Unified Multiscale Field/Network/Agent Based Modeling Framework for Human and Ecological Health Risk Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Georgopoulos, Panos G.; Isukapalli, Sastry S.

    2011-01-01

    A conceptual framework is presented for multiscale field/network/agent-based modeling to support human and ecological health risk assessments. This framework is based on the representation of environmental dynamics in terms of interacting networks, agents that move across different networks, fields representing spatiotemporal distributions of physical properties, rules governing constraints and interactions, and actors that make decisions affecting the state of the system. Different deterministic and stochastic modeling case studies focusing on environmental exposures and associated risks are provided as examples, utilizing the bidirectional mapping between discrete, agent based approaches and continuous, equation based approaches. These examples include problems describing human health risk assessment, ecological risk assessment, and environmentally caused disease. PMID:19964423

  14. Analysis of an Agent-based Electricity Market Model with Renewable Energy Power Plants by Wind and Solar Power

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iwagami, Akio; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    In recent years, electricity markets were organized in many developed countries in the deregulation process of electric power industries. There have been many studies on electricity markets from the viewpoints of economics, mathematics, computer science, etc. Especially, agent-based models of electricity markets have been extensively studied. Meanwhile, many countries promote use of renewable energy for electricity generation. In this paper, we construct and analyze an agent-based model of electricity markets in which wind and photovoltaic power generation firms are introduced. Our results suggest that wind power generation needs to be improved in efficiency to survive in the market, and that bid prices of photovoltaic power generation are rather affected by change of the insolation amount than by change of the total demand.

  15. Proposal of Classification Method of Time Series Data in International Emissions Trading Market Using Agent-based Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakada, Tomohiro; Takadama, Keiki; Watanabe, Shigeyoshi

    This paper proposes the classification method using Bayesian analytical method to classify the time series data in the international emissions trading market depend on the agent-based simulation and compares the case with Discrete Fourier transform analytical method. The purpose demonstrates the analytical methods mapping time series data such as market price. These analytical methods have revealed the following results: (1) the classification methods indicate the distance of mapping from the time series data, it is easier the understanding and inference than time series data; (2) these methods can analyze the uncertain time series data using the distance via agent-based simulation including stationary process and non-stationary process; and (3) Bayesian analytical method can show the 1% difference description of the emission reduction targets of agent.

  16. The Longest Run of Heads.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schilling, Mark F.

    1990-01-01

    Developed are simple recursion formulas for generating the exact distribution of the longest run of heads, both for a fair coin and for a biased coin. Discusses the applications of runs-related phenomena such as molecular biology, Markov chains, geometric variables, and random variables. (YP)

  17. Coordinating the 2009 RHIC Run

    ScienceCinema

    Brookhaven Lab - Mei Bai

    2010-01-08

    Physicists working at the Brookhaven National Lab's Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) are exploring the puzzle of proton spin as they begin taking data during the 2009 RHIC run. For the first time, RHIC is running at a record energy of 500 giga-elect

  18. Stiffness adaptations in shod running.

    PubMed

    Divert, Carolyn; Baur, Heiner; Mornieux, Guillaume; Mayer, Frank; Belli, Alain

    2005-11-01

    When mechanical parameters of running are measured, runners have to be accustomed to testing conditions. Nevertheless, habituated runners could still show slight evolutions of their patterns at the beginning of each new running bout. This study investigated runners' stiffness adjustments during shoe and barefoot running and stiffness evolutions of shoes. Twenty-two runners performed two 4-minute bouts at 3.61 m.s-1 shod and barefoot after a 4-min warm-up period. Vertical and leg stiffness decreased during the shoe condition but remained stable in the barefoot condition, p < 0.001. Moreover, an impactor test showed that shoe stiffness increased significantly during the first 4 minutes, p < 0.001. Beyond the 4th minute, shoe properties remained stable. Even if runners were accustomed to the testing condition, as running pattern remained stable during barefoot running, they adjusted their leg and vertical stiffness during shoe running. Moreover, as measurements were taken after a 4-min warm-up period, it could be assumed that shoe properties were stable. Then the stiffness adjustment observed during shoe running might be due to further habituations of the runners to the shod condition. To conclude, it makes sense to run at least 4 minutes before taking measurements in order to avoid runners' stiffness alteration due to shoe property modifications. However, runners could still adapt to the shoe. PMID:16498177

  19. Coordinating the 2009 RHIC Run

    SciTech Connect

    Brookhaven Lab - Mei Bai

    2009-04-13

    Physicists working at the Brookhaven National Lab's Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) are exploring the puzzle of proton spin as they begin taking data during the 2009 RHIC run. For the first time, RHIC is running at a record energy of 500 giga-elect

  20. Patterns of Use of an Agent-Based Model and a System Dynamics Model: The Application of Patterns of Use and the Impacts on Learning Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Kate; Reimann, Peter

    2010-01-01

    A classification system that was developed for the use of agent-based models was applied to strategies used by school-aged students to interrogate an agent-based model and a system dynamics model. These were compared, and relationships between learning outcomes and the strategies used were also analysed. It was found that the classification system…

  1. A Collective Case Study of Secondary Students' Model-Based Inquiry on Natural Selection through Programming in an Agent-Based Modeling Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xiang, Lin

    2011-01-01

    This is a collective case study seeking to develop detailed descriptions of how programming an agent-based simulation influences a group of 8th grade students' model-based inquiry (MBI) by examining students' agent-based programmable modeling (ABPM) processes and the learning outcomes. The context of the present study was a biology unit on…

  2. Emulating a System Dynamics Model with Agent-Based Models: A Methodological Case Study in Simulation of Diabetes Progression

    SciTech Connect

    Schryver, Jack; Nutaro, James; Shankar, Mallikarjun

    2015-10-30

    An agent-based simulation model hierarchy emulating disease states and behaviors critical to progression of diabetes type 2 was designed and implemented in the DEVS framework. The models are translations of basic elements of an established system dynamics model of diabetes. In this model hierarchy, which mimics diabetes progression over an aggregated U.S. population, was dis-aggregated and reconstructed bottom-up at the individual (agent) level. Four levels of model complexity were defined in order to systematically evaluate which parameters are needed to mimic outputs of the system dynamics model. Moreover, the four estimated models attempted to replicate stock counts representing disease states in the system dynamics model, while estimating impacts of an elderliness factor, obesity factor and health-related behavioral parameters. Health-related behavior was modeled as a simple realization of the Theory of Planned Behavior, a joint function of individual attitude and diffusion of social norms that spread over each agent s social network. Although the most complex agent-based simulation model contained 31 adjustable parameters, all models were considerably less complex than the system dynamics model which required numerous time series inputs to make its predictions. In all three elaborations of the baseline model provided significantly improved fits to the output of the system dynamics model. The performances of the baseline agent-based model and its extensions illustrate a promising approach to translate complex system dynamics models into agent-based model alternatives that are both conceptually simpler and capable of capturing main effects of complex local agent-agent interactions.

  3. Emulating a System Dynamics Model with Agent-Based Models: A Methodological Case Study in Simulation of Diabetes Progression

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Schryver, Jack; Nutaro, James; Shankar, Mallikarjun

    2015-10-30

    An agent-based simulation model hierarchy emulating disease states and behaviors critical to progression of diabetes type 2 was designed and implemented in the DEVS framework. The models are translations of basic elements of an established system dynamics model of diabetes. In this model hierarchy, which mimics diabetes progression over an aggregated U.S. population, was dis-aggregated and reconstructed bottom-up at the individual (agent) level. Four levels of model complexity were defined in order to systematically evaluate which parameters are needed to mimic outputs of the system dynamics model. Moreover, the four estimated models attempted to replicate stock counts representing disease statesmore » in the system dynamics model, while estimating impacts of an elderliness factor, obesity factor and health-related behavioral parameters. Health-related behavior was modeled as a simple realization of the Theory of Planned Behavior, a joint function of individual attitude and diffusion of social norms that spread over each agent s social network. Although the most complex agent-based simulation model contained 31 adjustable parameters, all models were considerably less complex than the system dynamics model which required numerous time series inputs to make its predictions. In all three elaborations of the baseline model provided significantly improved fits to the output of the system dynamics model. The performances of the baseline agent-based model and its extensions illustrate a promising approach to translate complex system dynamics models into agent-based model alternatives that are both conceptually simpler and capable of capturing main effects of complex local agent-agent interactions.« less

  4. Twenty-first century brain banking: at the crossroads.

    PubMed

    Graeber, Manuel B

    2008-05-01

    Brain banks form an increasingly important resource for research. In view of declining autopsy rates, brain banks are also gaining importance for medical diagnostics, quality control and teaching. In the case of neurodegenerative diseases, brain banks have become drivers of discovery and are yielding invaluable taxonomic references for neuropathologists. This article provides comments on two recent landmark papers in the field (Bell JE et al. Acta Neuropathol 2008. doi:10.1007/s00401-008-0358-8; Vonsattel JP et al. Acta Neuropathol 2008. doi:10.1007/s00401-007-0311-9). Professionalisation of brain banking standards, ethical principles safeguarding the running of a brain bank and a proposed code of conduct for brain bank staff are outlined and discussed. Special emphasis is placed on the need to enable sustainability of the human brain tissue resource in the face of increased financial pressures on medical institutions and raised public expectations towards ethical human brain banking in a globalised economic environment. It is proposed that brain banks undergo rigorous international audit as a prerequisite for their registration with the relevant national neuropathological society. This promises to be an important safeguard so that proper standards can be assured when tissue is handed out to commercial companies. Honesty, accountability and complete transparency are mandatory to allow long-lasting success of the brain banking operation by guaranteeing that the best possible use is made of the tissue. Preferred access by private tissue users must be avoided and money must never be allowed to buy access to a brain bank. Since brain banks operate internationally, any mistake made may be felt around the globe and could endanger the public's willingness to donate brains for research. The much-needed increase in the number of control brain donations will only be achievable if broad-based support from the general public can be won and maintained. PMID:18347804

  5. The First Women Bank -- why and for whom?

    PubMed

    Bilquees, F

    1991-01-01

    The First Women Bank with 10 branches in Pakistani cities was to have been modeled after the Grameen Bank of Bangladesh and serve the needs of very poor women. In fact, all but two branches are located in settings which are not available to the low income population and appear to cater to the needs of the wealthy. These contradictions between purpose and practice are examined in terms of the criteria for establishment of the bank and the operational strategy for bank clientele, deposit taking and credit services. Recommendations are provided. The original idea for the bank was proposed by the Finance Minister in a speech or a new Finance Minister established the women;s bank to be run by women in order to improve the socioeconomic status of women in Pakistan by offering traditional and nontraditional services. The gesture was political and not well though out. The clientele of the bank are not exclusively women. Operations are different than those which are available at other banks. The State Bank oversees operations and can always justify decisions. The bank is supposed to provide easy access to source of credit, a simplified procedure and equity requirements. Consulting and market analytical services are provided as are training facilities for women entrepreneurs. Artistic work and products from women's operations are exhibited and promoted through national and international and industrial exhibitions. In practice, the locations deter low income women from participation. Only 40% of the borrowers were identified as low income. Investment by poor women was primarily in small retail outlets. 40% were middle income and 20% were high income borrowers. The nontraditional services mandated were ignored. What actually exists is a commercial bank in the name of women. PMID:12285310

  6. Impact of Different Policies on Unhealthy Dietary Behaviors in an Urban Adult Population: An Agent-Based Simulation Model

    PubMed Central

    Giabbanelli, Philippe J.; Arah, Onyebuchi A.; Zimmerman, Frederick J.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives. Unhealthy eating is a complex-system problem. We used agent-based modeling to examine the effects of different policies on unhealthy eating behaviors. Methods. We developed an agent-based simulation model to represent a synthetic population of adults in Pasadena, CA, and how they make dietary decisions. Data from the 2007 Food Attitudes and Behaviors Survey and other empirical studies were used to calibrate the parameters of the model. Simulations were performed to contrast the potential effects of various policies on the evolution of dietary decisions. Results. Our model showed that a 20% increase in taxes on fast foods would lower the probability of fast-food consumption by 3 percentage points, whereas improving the visibility of positive social norms by 10%, either through community-based or mass-media campaigns, could improve the consumption of fruits and vegetables by 7 percentage points and lower fast-food consumption by 6 percentage points. Zoning policies had no significant impact. Conclusions. Interventions emphasizing healthy eating norms may be more effective than directly targeting food prices or regulating local food outlets. Agent-based modeling may be a useful tool for testing the population-level effects of various policies within complex systems. PMID:24832414

  7. 12 CFR 996.2 - Bank employees.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Bank employees. 996.2 Section 996.2 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD NON-BANK SYSTEM ENTITIES AUTHORITY FOR BANK ASSISTANCE OF THE RESOLUTION FUNDING CORPORATION § 996.2 Bank employees. Upon the request of the Directorate of the...

  8. 12 CFR 996.2 - Bank employees.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Bank employees. 996.2 Section 996.2 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD NON-BANK SYSTEM ENTITIES AUTHORITY FOR BANK ASSISTANCE OF THE RESOLUTION FUNDING CORPORATION § 996.2 Bank employees. Upon the request of the Directorate of the...

  9. 12 CFR 1271.41 - Bank employees.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 10 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Bank employees. 1271.41 Section 1271.41 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANKS MISCELLANEOUS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK OPERATIONS AND AUTHORITIES Authority for Bank Assistance of the Resolution Funding...

  10. 12 CFR 996.2 - Bank employees.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Bank employees. 996.2 Section 996.2 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD NON-BANK SYSTEM ENTITIES AUTHORITY FOR BANK ASSISTANCE OF THE RESOLUTION FUNDING CORPORATION § 996.2 Bank employees. Upon the request of the Directorate of the...

  11. 12 CFR 996.2 - Bank employees.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Bank employees. 996.2 Section 996.2 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD NON-BANK SYSTEM ENTITIES AUTHORITY FOR BANK ASSISTANCE OF THE RESOLUTION FUNDING CORPORATION § 996.2 Bank employees. Upon the request of the Directorate of the...

  12. GenBank

    PubMed Central

    Benson, Dennis A.; Clark, Karen; Karsch-Mizrachi, Ilene; Lipman, David J.; Ostell, James; Sayers, Eric W.

    2015-01-01

    GenBank® (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/genbank/) is a comprehensive database that contains publicly available nucleotide sequences for over 300 000 formally described species. These sequences are obtained primarily through submissions from individual laboratories and batch submissions from large-scale sequencing projects, including whole-genome shotgun and environmental sampling projects. Most submissions are made using the web-based BankIt or standalone Sequin programs, and GenBank staff assign accession numbers upon data receipt. Daily data exchange with the European Nucleotide Archive and the DNA Data Bank of Japan ensures worldwide coverage. GenBank is accessible through the NCBI Entrez retrieval system, which integrates data from the major DNA and protein sequence databases along with taxonomy, genome, mapping, protein structure and domain information, and the biomedical journal literature via PubMed. BLAST provides sequence similarity searches of GenBank and other sequence databases. Complete bimonthly releases and daily updates of the GenBank database are available by FTP. PMID:25414350

  13. Using GenBank.

    PubMed

    Sayers, Eric W; Karsch-Mizrachi, Ilene

    2016-01-01

    GenBank(®) is a comprehensive database of publicly available DNA sequences for 300,000 named organisms, more than 110,000 within the embryophyta, obtained through submissions from individual laboratories and batch submissions from large-scale sequencing projects. Daily data exchange with the European Nucleotide Archive (ENA) in Europe and the DNA Data Bank of Japan ensures worldwide coverage. GenBank is accessible through the NCBI Entrez retrieval system that integrates data from the major DNA and protein sequence databases with taxonomy, genome, mapping, protein structure and domain information, as well as the biomedical journal literature in PubMed. BLAST provides sequence similarity searches of GenBank and other sequence databases. Complete bimonthly releases and daily updates of the GenBank database are available by FTP. GenBank usage scenarios ranging from local analyses of the data available via FTP to online analyses supported by the NCBI web-based tools are discussed. To access GenBank and its related retrieval and analysis services, go to the NCBI home page at www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov . PMID:26519398

  14. Simulating Land-Use Change using an Agent-Based Land Transaction Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bakker, M. M.; van Dijk, J.; Alam, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    In the densely populated cultural landscapes of Europe, the vast majority of all land is owned by private parties, be it farmers (the majority), nature organizations, property developers, or citizens. Therewith, the vast majority of all land-use change arises from land transactions between different owner types: successful farms expand at the expense of less successful farms, and meanwhile property developers, individual citizens, and nature organizations also actively purchase land. These land transactions are driven by specific properties of the land, by governmental policies, and by the (economic) motives of both buyers and sellers. Climate/global change can affect these drivers at various scales: at the local scale changes in hydrology can make certain land less or more desirable; at the global scale the agricultural markets will affect motives of farmers to buy or sell land; while at intermediate (e.g. provincial) scales property developers and nature conservationists may be encouraged or discouraged to purchase land. The cumulative result of all these transactions becomes manifest in changing land-use patterns, and consequent environmental responses. Within the project Climate Adaptation for Rural Areas an agent-based land-use model was developed that explores the future response of individual land users to climate change, within the context of wider global change (i.e. policy and market change). It simulates the exchange of land among farmers and between farmers and nature organizations and property developers, for a specific case study area in the east of the Netherlands. Results show that local impacts of climate change can result in a relative stagnation in the land market in waterlogged areas. Furthermore, the increase in dairying at the expense of arable cultivation - as has been observed in the area in the past - is slowing down as arable produce shows a favourable trend in the agricultural world market. Furthermore, budgets for nature managers are

  15. A Spatial-Dynamic Agent-based Model of Energy Crop Introduction in Jiangsu province, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shu, K.; Schneider, U. A.; Scheffran, J.

    2012-12-01

    Bioenergy, as one promising option to replace a fraction of conventional fossil fuels and lower net greenhouse gas emissions, has gained many countries', in particular developing ones' attention. Their focus is mainly on the design of efficient bioenergy utilization pathways which adapt to both local geographic features and economic conditions. The establishment of a biomass production sector would be the first and pivotal component in the whole industrial chain. Several existing studies have estimated the global biomass for energy potential but arrived at very different results. One reason for the large uncertainty of biomass potential may be ascribed to the diverse nature of biomass leading to different estimates in different circumstances. Therefore, specific research at the local level is essential. Following this thought, our research conducted in the Jiangsu province, a representative region in China, will explore the spatial distribution of biomass production. The employed methodology can also be applied to other locations both in China and similar developing countries if model parameters are adequately adjusted. In this study, we analyze the local situation in the Jiangsu province focusing on the selection of new energy crops, since the cultivation of dedicated crop for energy use is still in experimental phase. We also examine the land use conflict which is especially relevant to China with more than 1.3 billion people and a severe burden on food supply. We develop an agent-based model to find the optimal spatial distribution of biomass (SDA-SDB) in Jiangsu province. Compromising data accessibility and heterogeneity of environmental factors across the province, we resolve our model at county level and consider the aggregated farming community in one county as a single agent. The aim of SDA-SDB is to simulate farmers' decision process of allocating land to either food or energy crops facing limited resources and political targets for bioenergy development

  16. Biogeographic patterns in ocean microbes emerge in a neutral agent-based model.

    PubMed

    Hellweger, Ferdi L; van Sebille, Erik; Fredrick, Neil D

    2014-09-12

    A key question in ecology and evolution is the relative role of natural selection and neutral evolution in producing biogeographic patterns. We quantify the role of neutral processes by simulating division, mutation, and death of 100,000 individual marine bacteria cells with full 1 million-base-pair genomes in a global surface ocean circulation model. The model is run for up to 100,000 years and output is analyzed using BLAST (Basic Local Alignment Search Tool) alignment and metagenomics fragment recruitment. Simulations show the production and maintenance of biogeographic patterns, characterized by distinct provinces subject to mixing and periodic takeovers by neighbors (coalescence), after which neutral evolution reestablishes the province and the patterns reorganize. The emergent patterns are substantial (e.g., down to 99.5% DNA identity between North and Central Pacific provinces) and suggest that microbes evolve faster than ocean currents can disperse them. This approach can also be used to explore environmental selection. PMID:25214628

  17. Tree-bank grammars

    SciTech Connect

    Charniak, E.

    1996-12-31

    By a {open_quotes}tree-bank grammar{close_quotes} we mean a context-free grammar created by reading the production rules directly from hand-parsed sentences in a tree bank. Common wisdom has it that such grammars do not perform well, though we know of no published data on the issue. The primary purpose of this paper is to show that the common wisdom is wrong. In particular, we present results on a tree-bank grammar based on the Penn Wall Street Journal tree bank. To the best of our knowledge, this grammar outperforms all other non-word-based statistical parsers/grammars on this corpus. That is, it outperforms parsers that consider the input as a string of tags and ignore the actual words of the corpus.

  18. 12 CFR 615.5144 - Banks for cooperatives and agricultural credit banks.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Banks for cooperatives and agricultural credit banks. 615.5144 Section 615.5144 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FUNDING....5144 Banks for cooperatives and agricultural credit banks. As may be authorized by the banks...

  19. 12 CFR 615.5144 - Banks for cooperatives and agricultural credit banks.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Banks for cooperatives and agricultural credit banks. 615.5144 Section 615.5144 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FUNDING....5144 Banks for cooperatives and agricultural credit banks. As may be authorized by the banks...

  20. 12 CFR Appendix D to Part 229 - Indorsement, Reconverting Bank Identification, and Truncating Bank Identification Standards

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Indorsement, Reconverting Bank Identification, and Truncating Bank Identification Standards D Appendix D to Part 229 Banks and Banking FEDERAL..., Reconverting Bank Identification, and Truncating Bank Identification Standards (1) The depositary bank...

  1. 12 CFR 615.5144 - Banks for cooperatives and agricultural credit banks.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Banks for cooperatives and agricultural credit banks. 615.5144 Section 615.5144 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FUNDING....5144 Banks for cooperatives and agricultural credit banks. As may be authorized by the banks...

  2. 12 CFR 615.5144 - Banks for cooperatives and agricultural credit banks.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Banks for cooperatives and agricultural credit banks. 615.5144 Section 615.5144 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FUNDING....5144 Banks for cooperatives and agricultural credit banks. As may be authorized by the banks...

  3. 12 CFR 615.5144 - Banks for cooperatives and agricultural credit banks.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Banks for cooperatives and agricultural credit banks. 615.5144 Section 615.5144 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FUNDING....5144 Banks for cooperatives and agricultural credit banks. As may be authorized by the banks...

  4. 12 CFR Appendix D to Part 229 - Indorsement, Reconverting Bank Identification, and Truncating Bank Identification Standards

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Indorsement, Reconverting Bank Identification, and Truncating Bank Identification Standards D Appendix D to Part 229 Banks and Banking FEDERAL..., Reconverting Bank Identification, and Truncating Bank Identification Standards (1) The depositary bank...

  5. 12 CFR 1270.17 - Liability of Banks, FHFA, Office of Finance and Federal Reserve Banks.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 9 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Liability of Banks, FHFA, Office of Finance and Federal Reserve Banks. 1270.17 Section 1270.17 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY FEDERAL... Banks, FHFA, Office of Finance and Federal Reserve Banks. The Banks, FHFA, the Director, the Office...

  6. 12 CFR 1270.17 - Liability of Banks, FHFA, Office of Finance and Federal Reserve Banks.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 9 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Liability of Banks, FHFA, Office of Finance and Federal Reserve Banks. 1270.17 Section 1270.17 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY FEDERAL... Banks, FHFA, Office of Finance and Federal Reserve Banks. The Banks, FHFA, the Director, the Office...

  7. 12 CFR 1270.17 - Liability of Banks, FHFA, Office of Finance and Federal Reserve Banks.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 10 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Liability of Banks, FHFA, Office of Finance and Federal Reserve Banks. 1270.17 Section 1270.17 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY... of Banks, FHFA, Office of Finance and Federal Reserve Banks. The Banks, FHFA, the Director,...

  8. Disentangling running coupling and conformal effects in QCD

    SciTech Connect

    Brodsky, S. J.; Gardi, E.; Grunberg, G.; Rathsman, J.

    2001-05-01

    We investigate the relation between a postulated skeleton expansion and the conformal limit of QCD. We begin by developing some consequences of an Abelian-like skeleton expansion, which allows one to disentangle running-coupling effects from the remaining skeleton coefficients. The latter are by construction renormalon free, and hence hopefully better behaved. We consider a simple ansatz for the expansion, where an observable is written as a sum of integrals over the running coupling. We show that in this framework one can set a unique Brodsky-Lepage-Mackenzie (BLM) scale-setting procedure as an approximation to the running-coupling integrals, where the BLM coefficients coincide with the skeleton ones. Alternatively, the running-coupling integrals can be approximated using the effective charge method. We discuss the limitations in disentangling running coupling effects in the absence of a diagrammatic construction of the skeleton expansion. Independently of the assumed skeleton structure we show that BLM coefficients coincide with conformal coefficients defined in the small {beta}{sub 0} (Banks-Zaks) limit where a perturbative infrared fixed point is present. This interpretation of the BLM coefficients should explain their previously observed simplicity and smallness. Numerical examples are critically discussed.

  9. A Collective Case Study of Secondary Students' Model-Based Inquiry on Natural Selection through Programming in an Agent-Based Modeling Environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiang, Lin

    This is a collective case study seeking to develop detailed descriptions of how programming an agent-based simulation influences a group of 8 th grade students' model-based inquiry (MBI) by examining students' agent-based programmable modeling (ABPM) processes and the learning outcomes. The context of the present study was a biology unit on natural selection implemented in a charter school of a major California city during spring semester of 2009. Eight 8th grade students, two boys and six girls, participated in this study. All of them were low socioeconomic status (SES). English was a second language for all of them, but they had been identified as fluent English speakers at least a year before the study. None of them had learned either natural selection or programming before the study. The study spanned over 7 weeks and was comprised of two study phases. In phase one the subject students learned natural selection in science classroom and how to do programming in NetLogo, an ABPM tool, in a computer lab; in phase two, the subject students were asked to program a simulation of adaptation based on the natural selection model in NetLogo. Both qualitative and quantitative data were collected in this study. The data resources included (1) pre and post test questionnaire, (2) student in-class worksheet, (3) programming planning sheet, (4) code-conception matching sheet, (5) student NetLogo projects, (6) videotaped programming processes, (7) final interview, and (8) investigator's field notes. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches were applied to analyze the gathered data. The findings suggested that students made progress on understanding adaptation phenomena and natural selection at the end of ABPM-supported MBI learning but the progress was limited. These students still held some misconceptions in their conceptual models, such as the idea that animals need to "learn" to adapt into the environment. Besides, their models of natural selection appeared to be

  10. 12 CFR 614.4070 - Loans and chartered territory-Farm Credit Banks, agricultural credit banks, Federal land bank...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ..., agricultural credit banks, Federal land bank associations, Federal land credit associations, production credit associations, and agricultural credit associations. 614.4070 Section 614.4070 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT... chartered territory—Farm Credit Banks, agricultural credit banks, Federal land bank associations,...

  11. 12 CFR 614.4070 - Loans and chartered territory-Farm Credit Banks, agricultural credit banks, Federal land bank...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ..., agricultural credit banks, Federal land bank associations, Federal land credit associations, production credit associations, and agricultural credit associations. 614.4070 Section 614.4070 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT... chartered territory—Farm Credit Banks, agricultural credit banks, Federal land bank associations,...

  12. Running of the running and entropy perturbations during inflation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van de Bruck, Carsten; Longden, Chris

    2016-07-01

    In single field slow-roll inflation, one expects that the spectral index ns-1 is first order in slow-roll parameters. Similarly, its running αs=d ns/d log k and the running of the running βs=d αs/d log k are second and third order and therefore expected to be progressively smaller, and usually negative. Hence, such models of inflation are in considerable tension with a recent analysis hinting that βs may actually be positive, and larger than αs. Motivated by this, in this work we ask the question of what kinds of inflationary models may be useful in achieving such a hierarchy of runnings, particularly focusing on two-field models of inflation in which the late-time transfer of power from isocurvature to curvature modes allows for a much more diverse range of phenomenology. We calculate the runnings due to this effect and briefly apply our results to assess the feasibility of finding |βs|≳|αs| in some specific models.

  13. Deciphering chemokine properties by a hybrid agent-based model of Aspergillus fumigatus infection in human alveoli

    PubMed Central

    Pollmächer, Johannes; Figge, Marc Thilo

    2015-01-01

    The ubiquitous airborne fungal pathogen Aspergillus fumigatus is inhaled by humans every day. In the lung, it is able to quickly adapt to the humid environment and, if not removed within a time frame of 4–8 h, the pathogen may cause damage by germination and invasive growth. Applying a to-scale agent-based model of human alveoli to simulate early A. fumigatus infection under physiological conditions, we recently demonstrated that alveolar macrophages require chemotactic cues to accomplish the task of pathogen detection within the aforementioned time frame. The objective of this study is to specify our general prediction on the as yet unidentified chemokine by a quantitative analysis of its expected properties, such as the diffusion coefficient and the rates of secretion and degradation. To this end, the rule-based implementation of chemokine diffusion in the initial agent-based model is revised by numerically solving the spatio-temporal reaction-diffusion equation in the complex structure of the alveolus. In this hybrid agent-based model, alveolar macrophages are represented as migrating agents that are coupled to the interactive layer of diffusing molecule concentrations by the kinetics of chemokine receptor binding, internalization and re-expression. Performing simulations for more than a million virtual infection scenarios, we find that the ratio of secretion rate to the diffusion coefficient is the main indicator for the success of pathogen detection. Moreover, a subdivision of the parameter space into regimes of successful and unsuccessful parameter combination by this ratio is specific for values of the migration speed and the directional persistence time of alveolar macrophages, but depends only weakly on chemokine degradation rates. PMID:26074897

  14. Linking Bayesian and Agent-Based Models to Simulate Complex Social-Ecological Systems in the Sonoran Desert

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pope, A.; Gimblett, R.

    2013-12-01

    Interdependencies of ecologic, hydrologic, and social systems challenge traditional approaches to natural resource management in semi-arid regions. As a complex social-ecological system, water demands in the Sonoran Desert from agricultural and urban users often conflicts with water needs for its ecologically-significant riparian corridors. To explore this system, we developed an agent-based model to simulate complex feedbacks between human decisions and environmental conditions. Cognitive mapping in conjunction with stakeholder participation produced a Bayesian model of conditional probabilities of local human decision-making processes resulting to changes in water demand. Probabilities created in the Bayesian model were incorporated into the agent-based model, so that each agent had a unique probability to make a positive decision based on its perceived environment at each point in time and space. By using a Bayesian approach, uncertainty in the human decision-making process could be incorporated. The spatially-explicit agent-based model simulated changes in depth-to-groundwater by well pumping based on an agent's water demand. Depth-to-groundwater was then used as an indicator of unique vegetation guilds within the riparian corridor. Each vegetation guild provides varying levels of ecosystem services, the changes of which, along with changes in depth-to-groundwater, feedback to influence agent behavior. Using this modeling approach allowed us to examine resilience of semi-arid riparian corridors and agent behavior under various scenarios. The insight provided by the model contributes to understanding how specific interventions may alter the complex social-ecological system in the future.

  15. Collaborative Multi-Agent Based Simulations: Stakeholder-Focused Innovation in Water Resources Management and Decision-Support Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kock, B. E.

    2006-12-01

    The combined use of multi-agent based simulations and collaborative modeling approaches is emerging as a highly effective tool for representing complex coupled social-biophysical water resource systems. A collaboratively-designed, multi-agent based simulation can be used both as a decision-support tool and as a didactic method for improving stakeholder understanding and engagement with water resources policymaking and management. Major technical and non-technical obstacles remain to the efficient and effective development of multi-agent models of human society, to integrating these models with GIS and other numerical models, and to building a process for engaging stakeholders with model design, implementation and use. It is proposed here to tackle some of these obstacles through a collaborative multi-agent based simulation process framework, intended for practical use in resolving disputes and environmental challenges over sustainable irrigated agriculture in the Western United States. A practical implementation of this framework will be conducted in collaboration with a diverse stakeholder group representing farmers and local, state and federal water managers. Through the use of simulation gaming, interviewing and computer-based knowledge elicitation, a multi-agent model representing local and regional social dynamics will be developed to support the acceptable and sustainable implementation of management alternatives for reducing regional problems of salinization and high selenium concentrations in soils and irrigation water. The development of a socially and scientifically credible simulation platform in this setting can make a significant contribution to ensuring the non-adversarial use of high quality science, enhance the engagement of stakeholders with policymaking, and help meet the challenges of integrating dynamic models of human society with more traditional biophysical systems models.

  16. An agent-based macroeconomic model with interacting firms, socio-economic opinion formation and optimistic/pessimistic sales expectations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westerhoff, Frank

    2010-07-01

    We propose a simple agent-based macroeconomic model in which firms hold heterogeneous sales expectations. A firm may either optimistically expect an increase in its sales or pessimistically expect the opposite. Whether a given firm is optimistic or pessimistic depends on macroeconomic conditions and the average mood prevailing within its social/local neighborhood. For instance, the probability of a firm taking an optimistic view increases not only during a boom but also with the number of its optimistic neighbors. We show that such an economy may give rise to co-evolving dynamics between the business cycle and the firms' average sentiment.

  17. Using agent-based technology to create a cost effective, integrated, multimedia view of the electronic medical record.

    PubMed Central

    Lowe, H. J.; Walker, W. K.; Vries, J. K.

    1995-01-01

    Image Engine is multi-user, client-server database for the storage, retrieval and sharing of a wide range of digitized biomedical images under development at the University of Pittsburgh. This paper provides an overview of the system and describes the use of agent-based technology to integrate clinical information from the Image Engine database and the MARS clinical information system at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center. Agent-mediated links provide a mechanism for combining clinical data from multiple databases to create a unified, multimedia view of the electronic medical record. Images Figure 1 PMID:8563320

  18. The role of research efficiency in the evolution of scientific productivity and impact: An agent-based model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    You, Zhi-Qiang; Han, Xiao-Pu; Hadzibeganovic, Tarik

    2016-02-01

    We introduce an agent-based model to investigate the effects of production efficiency (PE) and hot field tracing capability (HFTC) on productivity and impact of scientists embedded in a competitive research environment. Agents compete to publish and become cited by occupying the nodes of a citation network calibrated by real-world citation datasets. Our Monte-Carlo simulations reveal that differences in individual performance are strongly related to PE, whereas HFTC alone cannot provide sustainable academic careers under intensely competitive conditions. Remarkably, the negative effect of high competition levels on productivity can be buffered by elevated research efficiency if simultaneously HFTC is sufficiently low.

  19. Rebellion on Sugarscape: Case Studies for Greed and Grievance Theory of Civil Conflicts Using Agent-Based Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Rong

    Public policy making has direct and indirect impacts on social behaviors. However, using system dynamics model alone to assess these impacts fails to consider the interactions among social elements, thus may produce doubtful conclusions. In this study, we examine the political science theory of greed and grievance in modeling civil conflicts. An agent-based model is built based on an existing rebellion model in Netlogo. The modifications and improvements in our model are elaborated. Several case studies are used to demonstrate the use of our model for investigating emergent phenomena and implications of governmental policies.

  20. Multi-Agent Based Simulation of Optimal Urban Land Use Allocation in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Y.; Huang, W.; Jin, W.; Li, S.

    2016-06-01

    The optimization of land-use allocation is one of important approaches to achieve regional sustainable development. This study selects Chang-Zhu-Tan agglomeration as study area and proposed a new land use optimization allocation model. Using multi-agent based simulation model, the future urban land use optimization allocation was simulated in 2020 and 2030 under three different scenarios. This kind of quantitative information about urban land use optimization allocation and urban expansions in future would be of great interest to urban planning, water and land resource management, and climate change research.