Agent Model Development for Assessing Climate-Induced Geopolitical Instability.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boslough, Mark B.; Backus, George A.

2005-12-01

We present the initial stages of development of new agent-based computational methods to generate and test hypotheses about linkages between environmental change and international instability. This report summarizes the first year's effort of an originally proposed three-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project. The preliminary work focused on a set of simple agent-based models and benefited from lessons learned in previous related projects and case studies of human response to climate change and environmental scarcity. Our approach was to define a qualitative model using extremely simple cellular agent models akin to Lovelock's Daisyworld and Schelling's segregation model. Such modelsmore » do not require significant computing resources, and users can modify behavior rules to gain insights. One of the difficulties in agent-based modeling is finding the right balance between model simplicity and real-world representation. Our approach was to keep agent behaviors as simple as possible during the development stage (described herein) and to ground them with a realistic geospatial Earth system model in subsequent years. This work is directed toward incorporating projected climate data--including various C02 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report--and ultimately toward coupling a useful agent-based model to a general circulation model.3« less

Agent Based Modeling Applications for Geosciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, J. S.

2004-12-01

Agent-based modeling techniques have successfully been applied to systems in which complex behaviors or outcomes arise from varied interactions between individuals in the system. Each individual interacts with its environment, as well as with other individuals, by following a set of relatively simple rules. Traditionally this "bottom-up" modeling approach has been applied to problems in the fields of economics and sociology, but more recently has been introduced to various disciplines in the geosciences. This technique can help explain the origin of complex processes from a relatively simple set of rules, incorporate large and detailed datasets when they exist, and simulate the effects of extreme events on system-wide behavior. Some of the challenges associated with this modeling method include: significant computational requirements in order to keep track of thousands to millions of agents, methods and strategies of model validation are lacking, as is a formal methodology for evaluating model uncertainty. Challenges specific to the geosciences, include how to define agents that control water, contaminant fluxes, climate forcing and other physical processes and how to link these "geo-agents" into larger agent-based simulations that include social systems such as demographics economics and regulations. Effective management of limited natural resources (such as water, hydrocarbons, or land) requires an understanding of what factors influence the demand for these resources on a regional and temporal scale. Agent-based models can be used to simulate this demand across a variety of sectors under a range of conditions and determine effective and robust management policies and monitoring strategies. The recent focus on the role of biological processes in the geosciences is another example of an area that could benefit from agent-based applications. A typical approach to modeling the effect of biological processes in geologic media has been to represent these processes in a thermodynamic framework as a set of reactions that roll-up the integrated effect that diverse biological communities exert on a geological system. This approach may work well to predict the effect of certain biological communities in specific environments in which experimental data is available. However, it does not further our knowledge of how the geobiological system actually functions on a micro scale. Agent-based techniques may provide a framework to explore the fundamental interactions required to explain the system-wide behavior. This presentation will present a survey of several promising applications of agent-based modeling approaches to problems in the geosciences and describe specific contributions to some of the inherent challenges facing this approach.

Agent-Based Modeling of Chronic Diseases: A Narrative Review and Future Research Directions

PubMed Central

Lawley, Mark A.; Siscovick, David S.; Zhang, Donglan; Pagán, José A.

2016-01-01

The United States is experiencing an epidemic of chronic disease. As the US population ages, health care providers and policy makers urgently need decision models that provide systematic, credible prediction regarding the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases to improve population health management and medical decision-making. Agent-based modeling is a promising systems science approach that can model complex interactions and processes related to chronic health conditions, such as adaptive behaviors, feedback loops, and contextual effects. This article introduces agent-based modeling by providing a narrative review of agent-based models of chronic disease and identifying the characteristics of various chronic health conditions that must be taken into account to build effective clinical- and policy-relevant models. We also identify barriers to adopting agent-based models to study chronic diseases. Finally, we discuss future research directions of agent-based modeling applied to problems related to specific chronic health conditions. PMID:27236380

Agent-Based Modeling of Chronic Diseases: A Narrative Review and Future Research Directions.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Lawley, Mark A; Siscovick, David S; Zhang, Donglan; Pagán, José A

2016-05-26

The United States is experiencing an epidemic of chronic disease. As the US population ages, health care providers and policy makers urgently need decision models that provide systematic, credible prediction regarding the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases to improve population health management and medical decision-making. Agent-based modeling is a promising systems science approach that can model complex interactions and processes related to chronic health conditions, such as adaptive behaviors, feedback loops, and contextual effects. This article introduces agent-based modeling by providing a narrative review of agent-based models of chronic disease and identifying the characteristics of various chronic health conditions that must be taken into account to build effective clinical- and policy-relevant models. We also identify barriers to adopting agent-based models to study chronic diseases. Finally, we discuss future research directions of agent-based modeling applied to problems related to specific chronic health conditions.

Agent-Based Modeling of Growth Processes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abraham, Ralph

2014-01-01

Growth processes abound in nature, and are frequently the target of modeling exercises in the sciences. In this article we illustrate an agent-based approach to modeling, in the case of a single example from the social sciences: bullying.

An equation-free approach to agent-based computation: Bifurcation analysis and control of stationary states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siettos, C. I.; Gear, C. W.; Kevrekidis, I. G.

2012-08-01

We show how the equation-free approach can be exploited to enable agent-based simulators to perform system-level computations such as bifurcation, stability analysis and controller design. We illustrate these tasks through an event-driven agent-based model describing the dynamic behaviour of many interacting investors in the presence of mimesis. Using short bursts of appropriately initialized runs of the detailed, agent-based simulator, we construct the coarse-grained bifurcation diagram of the (expected) density of agents and investigate the stability of its multiple solution branches. When the mimetic coupling between agents becomes strong enough, the stable stationary state loses its stability at a coarse turning point bifurcation. We also demonstrate how the framework can be used to design a wash-out dynamic controller that stabilizes open-loop unstable stationary states even under model uncertainty.

Evaluating the effect of human activity patterns on air pollution exposure using an integrated field-based and agent-based modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitz, Oliver; Beelen, Rob M. J.; de Bakker, Merijn P.; Karssenberg, Derek

2015-04-01

Constructing spatio-temporal numerical models to support risk assessment, such as assessing the exposure of humans to air pollution, often requires the integration of field-based and agent-based modelling approaches. Continuous environmental variables such as air pollution are best represented using the field-based approach which considers phenomena as continuous fields having attribute values at all locations. When calculating human exposure to such pollutants it is, however, preferable to consider the population as a set of individuals each with a particular activity pattern. This would allow to account for the spatio-temporal variation in a pollutant along the space-time paths travelled by individuals, determined, for example, by home and work locations, road network, and travel times. Modelling this activity pattern requires an agent-based or individual based modelling approach. In general, field- and agent-based models are constructed with the help of separate software tools, while both approaches should play together in an interacting way and preferably should be combined into one modelling framework, which would allow for efficient and effective implementation of models by domain specialists. To overcome this lack in integrated modelling frameworks, we aim at the development of concepts and software for an integrated field-based and agent-based modelling framework. Concepts merging field- and agent-based modelling were implemented by extending PCRaster (http://www.pcraster.eu), a field-based modelling library implemented in C++, with components for 1) representation of discrete, mobile, agents, 2) spatial networks and algorithms by integrating the NetworkX library (http://networkx.github.io), allowing therefore to calculate e.g. shortest routes or total transport costs between locations, and 3) functions for field-network interactions, allowing to assign field-based attribute values to networks (i.e. as edge weights), such as aggregated or averaged concentration values. We demonstrate the approach by using six land use regression (LUR) models developed in the ESCAPE (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects) project. These models calculate several air pollutants (e.g. NO2, NOx, PM2.5) for the entire Netherlands at a high (5 m) resolution. Using these air pollution maps, we compare exposure of individuals calculated at their x, y location of their home, their work place, and aggregated over the close surroundings of these locations. In addition, total exposure is accumulated over daily activity patterns, summing exposure at home, at the work place, and while travelling between home and workplace, by routing individuals over the Dutch road network, using the shortest route. Finally, we illustrate how routes can be calculated with the minimum total exposure (instead of shortest distance).

Formalizing the Role of Agent-Based Modeling in Causal Inference and Epidemiology

PubMed Central

Marshall, Brandon D. L.; Galea, Sandro

2015-01-01

Calls for the adoption of complex systems approaches, including agent-based modeling, in the field of epidemiology have largely centered on the potential for such methods to examine complex disease etiologies, which are characterized by feedback behavior, interference, threshold dynamics, and multiple interacting causal effects. However, considerable theoretical and practical issues impede the capacity of agent-based methods to examine and evaluate causal effects and thus illuminate new areas for intervention. We build on this work by describing how agent-based models can be used to simulate counterfactual outcomes in the presence of complexity. We show that these models are of particular utility when the hypothesized causal mechanisms exhibit a high degree of interdependence between multiple causal effects and when interference (i.e., one person's exposure affects the outcome of others) is present and of intrinsic scientific interest. Although not without challenges, agent-based modeling (and complex systems methods broadly) represent a promising novel approach to identify and evaluate complex causal effects, and they are thus well suited to complement other modern epidemiologic methods of etiologic inquiry. PMID:25480821

Ensuring congruency in multiscale modeling: towards linking agent based and continuum biomechanical models of arterial adaptation.

PubMed

Hayenga, Heather N; Thorne, Bryan C; Peirce, Shayn M; Humphrey, Jay D

2011-11-01

There is a need to develop multiscale models of vascular adaptations to understand tissue-level manifestations of cellular level mechanisms. Continuum-based biomechanical models are well suited for relating blood pressures and flows to stress-mediated changes in geometry and properties, but less so for describing underlying mechanobiological processes. Discrete stochastic agent-based models are well suited for representing biological processes at a cellular level, but not for describing tissue-level mechanical changes. We present here a conceptually new approach to facilitate the coupling of continuum and agent-based models. Because of ubiquitous limitations in both the tissue- and cell-level data from which one derives constitutive relations for continuum models and rule-sets for agent-based models, we suggest that model verification should enforce congruency across scales. That is, multiscale model parameters initially determined from data sets representing different scales should be refined, when possible, to ensure that common outputs are consistent. Potential advantages of this approach are illustrated by comparing simulated aortic responses to a sustained increase in blood pressure predicted by continuum and agent-based models both before and after instituting a genetic algorithm to refine 16 objectively bounded model parameters. We show that congruency-based parameter refinement not only yielded increased consistency across scales, it also yielded predictions that are closer to in vivo observations.

From Agents to Continuous Change via Aesthetics: Learning Mechanics with Visual Agent-Based Computational Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sengupta, Pratim; Farris, Amy Voss; Wright, Mason

2012-01-01

Novice learners find motion as a continuous process of change challenging to understand. In this paper, we present a pedagogical approach based on agent-based, visual programming to address this issue. Integrating agent-based programming, in particular, Logo programming, with curricular science has been shown to be challenging in previous research…

Proceedings 3rd NASA/IEEE Workshop on Formal Approaches to Agent-Based Systems (FAABS-III)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinchey, Michael (Editor); Rash, James (Editor); Truszkowski, Walt (Editor); Rouff, Christopher (Editor)

2004-01-01

These preceedings contain 18 papers and 4 poster presentation, covering topics such as: multi-agent systems, agent-based control, formalism, norms, as well as physical and biological models of agent-based systems. Some applications presented in the proceedings include systems analysis, software engineering, computer networks and robot control.

Formalism Challenges of the Cougaar Model Driven Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bohner, Shawn A.; George, Boby; Gracanin, Denis; Hinchey, Michael G.

2004-01-01

The Cognitive Agent Architecture (Cougaar) is one of the most sophisticated distributed agent architectures developed today. As part of its research and evolution, Cougaar is being studied for application to large, logistics-based applications for the Department of Defense (DoD). Anticipiting future complex applications of Cougaar, we are investigating the Model Driven Architecture (MDA) approach to understand how effective it would be for increasing productivity in Cougar-based development efforts. Recognizing the sophistication of the Cougaar development environment and the limitations of transformation technologies for agents, we have systematically developed an approach that combines component assembly in the large and transformation in the small. This paper describes some of the key elements that went into the Cougaar Model Driven Architecture approach and the characteristics that drove the approach.

B-tree search reinforcement learning for model based intelligent agent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhuvaneswari, S.; Vignashwaran, R.

2013-03-01

Agents trained by learning techniques provide a powerful approximation of active solutions for naive approaches. In this study using B - Trees implying reinforced learning the data search for information retrieval is moderated to achieve accuracy with minimum search time. The impact of variables and tactics applied in training are determined using reinforcement learning. Agents based on these techniques perform satisfactory baseline and act as finite agents based on the predetermined model against competitors from the course.

Demeter, persephone, and the search for emergence in agent-based models.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

North, M. J.; Howe, T. R.; Collier, N. T.

2006-01-01

In Greek mythology, the earth goddess Demeter was unable to find her daughter Persephone after Persephone was abducted by Hades, the god of the underworld. Demeter is said to have embarked on a long and frustrating, but ultimately successful, search to find her daughter. Unfortunately, long and frustrating searches are not confined to Greek mythology. In modern times, agent-based modelers often face similar troubles when searching for agents that are to be to be connected to one another and when seeking appropriate target agents while defining agent behaviors. The result is a 'search for emergence' in that many emergent ormore » potentially emergent behaviors in agent-based models of complex adaptive systems either implicitly or explicitly require search functions. This paper considers a new nested querying approach to simplifying such agent-based modeling and multi-agent simulation search problems.« less

Learning from Multiple Collaborating Intelligent Tutors: An Agent-based Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Solomos, Konstantinos; Avouris, Nikolaos

1999-01-01

Describes an open distributed multi-agent tutoring system (MATS) and discusses issues related to learning in such open environments. Topics include modeling a one student-many teachers approach in a computer-based learning context; distributed artificial intelligence; implementation issues; collaboration; and user interaction. (Author/LRW)

A CSP-Based Agent Modeling Framework for the Cougaar Agent-Based Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gracanin, Denis; Singh, H. Lally; Eltoweissy, Mohamed; Hinchey, Michael G.; Bohner, Shawn A.

2005-01-01

Cognitive Agent Architecture (Cougaar) is a Java-based architecture for large-scale distributed agent-based applications. A Cougaar agent is an autonomous software entity with behaviors that represent a real-world entity (e.g., a business process). A Cougaar-based Model Driven Architecture approach, currently under development, uses a description of system's functionality (requirements) to automatically implement the system in Cougaar. The Communicating Sequential Processes (CSP) formalism is used for the formal validation of the generated system. Two main agent components, a blackboard and a plugin, are modeled as CSP processes. A set of channels represents communications between the blackboard and individual plugins. The blackboard is represented as a CSP process that communicates with every agent in the collection. The developed CSP-based Cougaar modeling framework provides a starting point for a more complete formal verification of the automatically generated Cougaar code. Currently it is used to verify the behavior of an individual agent in terms of CSP properties and to analyze the corresponding Cougaar society.

Evaluating Water Demand Using Agent-Based Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowry, T. S.

2004-12-01

The supply and demand of water resources are functions of complex, inter-related systems including hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy. To assess the safety and sustainability of water resources, planners often rely on complex numerical models that relate some or all of these systems using mathematical abstractions. The accuracy of these models relies on how well the abstractions capture the true nature of the systems interactions. Typically, these abstractions are based on analyses of observations and/or experiments that account only for the statistical mean behavior of each system. This limits the approach in two important ways: 1) It cannot capture cross-system disruptive events, such as major drought, significant policy change, or terrorist attack, and 2) it cannot resolve sub-system level responses. To overcome these limitations, we are developing an agent-based water resources model that includes the systems of hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy, to examine water demand during normal and extraordinary conditions. Agent-based modeling (ABM) develops functional relationships between systems by modeling the interaction between individuals (agents), who behave according to a probabilistic set of rules. ABM is a "bottom-up" modeling approach in that it defines macro-system behavior by modeling the micro-behavior of individual agents. While each agent's behavior is often simple and predictable, the aggregate behavior of all agents in each system can be complex, unpredictable, and different than behaviors observed in mean-behavior models. Furthermore, the ABM approach creates a virtual laboratory where the effects of policy changes and/or extraordinary events can be simulated. Our model, which is based on the demographics and hydrology of the Middle Rio Grande Basin in the state of New Mexico, includes agent groups of residential, agricultural, and industrial users. Each agent within each group determines its water usage based on its own condition and the condition of the world around it. For example, residential agents can make decisions to convert to or from xeriscaping and/or low-flow appliances based on policy implementation, economic status, weather, and climatic conditions. Agricultural agents may vary their usage by making decisions on crop distribution and irrigation design. Preliminary results show that water usage can be highly irrational under certain conditions. Results also identify sub-sectors within each group that have the highest influence on ensemble group behavior, providing a means for policy makers to target their efforts. Finally, the model is able to predict the impact of low-probability, high-impact events such as catastrophic denial of service due to natural and/or man-made events.

Hypercompetitive Environments: An Agent-based model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dias, Manuel; Araújo, Tanya

Information technology (IT) environments are characterized by complex changes and rapid evolution. Globalization and the spread of technological innovation have increased the need for new strategic information resources, both from individual firms and management environments. Improvements in multidisciplinary methods and, particularly, the availability of powerful computational tools, are giving researchers an increasing opportunity to investigate management environments in their true complex nature. The adoption of a complex systems approach allows for modeling business strategies from a bottom-up perspective — understood as resulting from repeated and local interaction of economic agents — without disregarding the consequences of the business strategies themselves to individual behavior of enterprises, emergence of interaction patterns between firms and management environments. Agent-based models are at the leading approach of this attempt.

Model-based Utility Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibbard, Bill

2012-05-01

Orseau and Ring, as well as Dewey, have recently described problems, including self-delusion, with the behavior of agents using various definitions of utility functions. An agent's utility function is defined in terms of the agent's history of interactions with its environment. This paper argues, via two examples, that the behavior problems can be avoided by formulating the utility function in two steps: 1) inferring a model of the environment from interactions, and 2) computing utility as a function of the environment model. Basing a utility function on a model that the agent must learn implies that the utility function must initially be expressed in terms of specifications to be matched to structures in the learned model. These specifications constitute prior assumptions about the environment so this approach will not work with arbitrary environments. But the approach should work for agents designed by humans to act in the physical world. The paper also addresses the issue of self-modifying agents and shows that if provided with the possibility to modify their utility functions agents will not choose to do so, under some usual assumptions.

Simulating Cancer Growth with Multiscale Agent-Based Modeling

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhihui; Butner, Joseph D.; Kerketta, Romica; Cristini, Vittorio; Deisboeck, Thomas S.

2014-01-01

There have been many techniques developed in recent years to in silico model a variety of cancer behaviors. Agent-based modeling is a specific discrete-based hybrid modeling approach that allows simulating the role of diversity in cell populations as well as within each individual cell; it has therefore become a powerful modeling method widely used by computational cancer researchers. Many aspects of tumor morphology including phenotype-changing mutations, the adaptation to microenvironment, the process of angiogenesis, the influence of extracellular matrix, reactions to chemotherapy or surgical intervention, the effects of oxygen and nutrient availability, and metastasis and invasion of healthy tissues have been incorporated and investigated in agent-based models. In this review, we introduce some of the most recent agent-based models that have provided insight into the understanding of cancer growth and invasion, spanning multiple biological scales in time and space, and we further describe several experimentally testable hypotheses generated by those models. We also discuss some of the current challenges of multiscale agent-based cancer models. PMID:24793698

Evolvable social agents for bacterial systems modeling.

PubMed

Paton, Ray; Gregory, Richard; Vlachos, Costas; Saunders, Jon; Wu, Henry

2004-09-01

We present two approaches to the individual-based modeling (IbM) of bacterial ecologies and evolution using computational tools. The IbM approach is introduced, and its important complementary role to biosystems modeling is discussed. A fine-grained model of bacterial evolution is then presented that is based on networks of interactivity between computational objects representing genes and proteins. This is followed by a coarser grained agent-based model, which is designed to explore the evolvability of adaptive behavioral strategies in artificial bacteria represented by learning classifier systems. The structure and implementation of the two proposed individual-based bacterial models are discussed, and some results from simulation experiments are presented, illustrating their adaptive properties.

Agent Based Modeling of Collaboration and Work Practices Onboard the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acquisti, Alessandro; Sierhuis, Maarten; Clancey, William J.; Bradshaw, Jeffrey M.; Shaffo, Mike (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The International Space Station is one the most complex projects ever, with numerous interdependent constraints affecting productivity and crew safety. This requires planning years before crew expeditions, and the use of sophisticated scheduling tools. Human work practices, however, are difficult to study and represent within traditional planning tools. We present an agent-based model and simulation of the activities and work practices of astronauts onboard the ISS based on an agent-oriented approach. The model represents 'a day in the life' of the ISS crew and is developed in Brahms, an agent-oriented, activity-based language used to model knowledge in situated action and learning in human activities.

Intelligent microchip networks: an agent-on-chip synthesis framework for the design of smart and robust sensor networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosse, Stefan

2013-05-01

Sensorial materials consisting of high-density, miniaturized, and embedded sensor networks require new robust and reliable data processing and communication approaches. Structural health monitoring is one major field of application for sensorial materials. Each sensor node provides some kind of sensor, electronics, data processing, and communication with a strong focus on microchip-level implementation to meet the goals of miniaturization and low-power energy environments, a prerequisite for autonomous behaviour and operation. Reliability requires robustness of the entire system in the presence of node, link, data processing, and communication failures. Interaction between nodes is required to manage and distribute information. One common interaction model is the mobile agent. An agent approach provides stronger autonomy than a traditional object or remote-procedure-call based approach. Agents can decide for themselves, which actions are performed, and they are capable of flexible behaviour, reacting on the environment and other agents, providing some degree of robustness. Traditionally multi-agent systems are abstract programming models which are implemented in software and executed on program controlled computer architectures. This approach does not well scale to micro-chip level and requires full equipped computers and communication structures, and the hardware architecture does not consider and reflect the requirements for agent processing and interaction. We propose and demonstrate a novel design paradigm for reliable distributed data processing systems and a synthesis methodology and framework for multi-agent systems implementable entirely on microchip-level with resource and power constrained digital logic supporting Agent-On-Chip architectures (AoC). The agent behaviour and mobility is fully integrated on the micro-chip using pipelined communicating processes implemented with finite-state machines and register-transfer logic. The agent behaviour, interaction (communication), and mobility features are modelled and specified on a machine-independent abstract programming level using a state-based agent behaviour language (APL). With this APL a high-level agent compiler is able to synthesize a hardware model (RTL, VHDL), a software model (C, ML), or a simulation model (XML) suitable to simulate a multi-agent system using the SeSAm simulator framework. Agent communication is provided by a simple tuple-space database implemented on node level providing fault tolerant access of global data. A novel synthesis development kit (SynDK) based on a graph-structured database approach is introduced to support the rapid development of compilers and synthesis tools, used for example for the design and implementation of the APL compiler.

Agent-Based Model Approach to Complex Phenomena in Real Economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyetomi, H.; Aoyama, H.; Fujiwara, Y.; Ikeda, Y.; Souma, W.

An agent-based model for firms' dynamics is developed. The model consists of firm agents with identical characteristic parameters and a bank agent. Dynamics of those agents are described by their balance sheets. Each firm tries to maximize its expected profit with possible risks in market. Infinite growth of a firm directed by the ``profit maximization" principle is suppressed by a concept of ``going concern". Possibility of bankruptcy of firms is also introduced by incorporating a retardation effect of information on firms' decision. The firms, mutually interacting through the monopolistic bank, become heterogeneous in the course of temporal evolution. Statistical properties of firms' dynamics obtained by simulations based on the model are discussed in light of observations in the real economy.

Comparison of an Agent-based Model of Disease Propagation with the Generalised SIR Epidemic Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-08-01

has become a practical method for conducting Epidemiological Modelling. In the agent- based approach the whole township can be modelled as a system of...SIR system was initially developed based on a very simplified model of social interaction. For instance an assumption of uniform population mixing was...simulating the progress of a disease within a host and of transmission between hosts is based upon Transportation Analysis and Simulation System

From particle systems to learning processes. Comment on "Collective learning modeling based on the kinetic theory of active particles" by Diletta Burini, Silvana De Lillo, and Livio Gibelli

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lachowicz, Mirosław

2016-03-01

The very stimulating paper [6] discusses an approach to perception and learning in a large population of living agents. The approach is based on a generalization of kinetic theory methods in which the interactions between agents are described in terms of game theory. Such an approach was already discussed in Ref. [2-4] (see also references therein) in various contexts. The processes of perception and learning are based on the interactions between agents and therefore the general kinetic theory is a suitable tool for modeling them. However the main question that rises is how the perception and learning processes may be treated in the mathematical modeling. How may we precisely deliver suitable mathematical structures that are able to capture various aspects of perception and learning?

Derivation of Continuum Models from An Agent-based Cancer Model: Optimization and Sensitivity Analysis.

PubMed

Voulgarelis, Dimitrios; Velayudhan, Ajoy; Smith, Frank

2017-01-01

Agent-based models provide a formidable tool for exploring complex and emergent behaviour of biological systems as well as accurate results but with the drawback of needing a lot of computational power and time for subsequent analysis. On the other hand, equation-based models can more easily be used for complex analysis in a much shorter timescale. This paper formulates an ordinary differential equations and stochastic differential equations model to capture the behaviour of an existing agent-based model of tumour cell reprogramming and applies it to optimization of possible treatment as well as dosage sensitivity analysis. For certain values of the parameter space a close match between the equation-based and agent-based models is achieved. The need for division of labour between the two approaches is explored. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Design of a multi-agent hydroeconomic model to simulate a complex human-water system: Early insights from the Jordan Water Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; Klassert, C. J. A.; Lachaut, T.; Selby, P. D.; Knox, S.; Gorelick, S.; Rajsekhar, D.; Tilmant, A.; Avisse, N.; Harou, J. J.; Gawel, E.; Klauer, B.; Mustafa, D.; Talozi, S.; Sigel, K.

2015-12-01

Our work focuses on development of a multi-agent, hydroeconomic model for purposes of water policy evaluation in Jordan. The model adopts a modular approach, integrating biophysical modules that simulate natural and engineered phenomena with human modules that represent behavior at multiple levels of decision making. The hydrologic modules are developed using spatially-distributed groundwater and surface water models, which are translated into compact simulators for efficient integration into the multi-agent model. For the groundwater model, we adopt a response matrix method approach in which a 3-dimensional MODFLOW model of a complex regional groundwater system is converted into a linear simulator of groundwater response by pre-processing drawdown results from several hundred numerical simulation runs. Surface water models for each major surface water basin in the country are developed in SWAT and similarly translated into simple rainfall-runoff functions for integration with the multi-agent model. The approach balances physically-based, spatially-explicit representation of hydrologic systems with the efficiency required for integration into a complex multi-agent model that is computationally amenable to robust scenario analysis. For the multi-agent model, we explicitly represent human agency at multiple levels of decision making, with agents representing riparian, management, supplier, and water user groups. The agents' decision making models incorporate both rule-based heuristics as well as economic optimization. The model is programmed in Python using Pynsim, a generalizable, open-source object-oriented code framework for modeling network-based water resource systems. The Jordan model is one of the first applications of Pynsim to a real-world water management case study. Preliminary results from a tanker market scenario run through year 2050 are presented in which several salient features of the water system are investigated: competition between urban and private farmer agents, the emergence of a private tanker market, disparities in economic wellbeing to different user groups caused by unique supply conditions, and response of the complex system to various policy interventions.

Agent-based model of angiogenesis simulates capillary sprout initiation in multicellular networks

PubMed Central

Walpole, J.; Chappell, J.C.; Cluceru, J.G.; Mac Gabhann, F.; Bautch, V.L.; Peirce, S. M.

2015-01-01

Many biological processes are controlled by both deterministic and stochastic influences. However, efforts to model these systems often rely on either purely stochastic or purely rule-based methods. To better understand the balance between stochasticity and determinism in biological processes a computational approach that incorporates both influences may afford additional insight into underlying biological mechanisms that give rise to emergent system properties. We apply a combined approach to the simulation and study of angiogenesis, the growth of new blood vessels from existing networks. This complex multicellular process begins with selection of an initiating endothelial cell, or tip cell, which sprouts from the parent vessels in response to stimulation by exogenous cues. We have constructed an agent-based model of sprouting angiogenesis to evaluate endothelial cell sprout initiation frequency and location, and we have experimentally validated it using high-resolution time-lapse confocal microscopy. ABM simulations were then compared to a Monte Carlo model, revealing that purely stochastic simulations could not generate sprout locations as accurately as the rule-informed agent-based model. These findings support the use of rule-based approaches for modeling the complex mechanisms underlying sprouting angiogenesis over purely stochastic methods. PMID:26158406

Agent-based model of angiogenesis simulates capillary sprout initiation in multicellular networks.

PubMed

Walpole, J; Chappell, J C; Cluceru, J G; Mac Gabhann, F; Bautch, V L; Peirce, S M

2015-09-01

Many biological processes are controlled by both deterministic and stochastic influences. However, efforts to model these systems often rely on either purely stochastic or purely rule-based methods. To better understand the balance between stochasticity and determinism in biological processes a computational approach that incorporates both influences may afford additional insight into underlying biological mechanisms that give rise to emergent system properties. We apply a combined approach to the simulation and study of angiogenesis, the growth of new blood vessels from existing networks. This complex multicellular process begins with selection of an initiating endothelial cell, or tip cell, which sprouts from the parent vessels in response to stimulation by exogenous cues. We have constructed an agent-based model of sprouting angiogenesis to evaluate endothelial cell sprout initiation frequency and location, and we have experimentally validated it using high-resolution time-lapse confocal microscopy. ABM simulations were then compared to a Monte Carlo model, revealing that purely stochastic simulations could not generate sprout locations as accurately as the rule-informed agent-based model. These findings support the use of rule-based approaches for modeling the complex mechanisms underlying sprouting angiogenesis over purely stochastic methods.

Simulating Microdosimetry of Environmental Chemicals for EPA’s Virtual Liver

EPA Science Inventory

US EPA Virtual Liver (v-Liver) is a cellular systems model of hepatic tissues aimed at predicting chemical-induced adverse effects through agent-based modeling. A primary objective of the project is to extrapolate in vitro data to in vivo outcomes. Agent-based approaches to tissu...

Formalizing the role of agent-based modeling in causal inference and epidemiology.

PubMed

Marshall, Brandon D L; Galea, Sandro

2015-01-15

Calls for the adoption of complex systems approaches, including agent-based modeling, in the field of epidemiology have largely centered on the potential for such methods to examine complex disease etiologies, which are characterized by feedback behavior, interference, threshold dynamics, and multiple interacting causal effects. However, considerable theoretical and practical issues impede the capacity of agent-based methods to examine and evaluate causal effects and thus illuminate new areas for intervention. We build on this work by describing how agent-based models can be used to simulate counterfactual outcomes in the presence of complexity. We show that these models are of particular utility when the hypothesized causal mechanisms exhibit a high degree of interdependence between multiple causal effects and when interference (i.e., one person's exposure affects the outcome of others) is present and of intrinsic scientific interest. Although not without challenges, agent-based modeling (and complex systems methods broadly) represent a promising novel approach to identify and evaluate complex causal effects, and they are thus well suited to complement other modern epidemiologic methods of etiologic inquiry. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Excellent approach to modeling urban expansion by fuzzy cellular automata: agent base model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajavigodellou, Yousef; Alesheikh, Ali A.; Mohammed, Abdulrazak A. S.; Chapi, Kamran

2014-09-01

Recently, the interaction between humans and their environment is the one of important challenges in the world. Landuse/ cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. The complexity and dynamics of urban systems make the applicable practice of urban modeling very difficult. With the increased computational power and the greater availability of spatial data, micro-simulation such as the agent based and cellular automata simulation methods, has been developed by geographers, planners, and scholars, and it has shown great potential for representing and simulating the complexity of the dynamic processes involved in urban growth and land use change. This paper presents Fuzzy Cellular Automata in Geospatial Information System and remote Sensing to simulated and predicted urban expansion pattern. These FCA-based dynamic spatial urban models provide an improved ability to forecast and assess future urban growth and to create planning scenarios, allowing us to explore the potential impacts of simulations that correspond to urban planning and management policies. A fuzzy inference guided cellular automata approach. Semantic or linguistic knowledge on Land use change is expressed as fuzzy rules, based on which fuzzy inference is applied to determine the urban development potential for each pixel. The model integrates an ABM (agent-based model) and FCA (Fuzzy Cellular Automata) to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Based on this model rapid development and green land protection under the influences of the behaviors and decision modes of regional authority agents, real estate developer agents, resident agents and non- resident agents and their interactions have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Erbil metropolitan region.

Graceful Failure and Societal Resilience Analysis Via Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schopf, P. S.; Cioffi-Revilla, C.; Rogers, J. D.; Bassett, J.; Hailegiorgis, A. B.

2014-12-01

Agent-based social modeling is opening up new methodologies for the study of societal response to weather and climate hazards, and providing measures of resiliency that can be studied in many contexts, particularly in coupled human and natural-technological systems (CHANTS). Since CHANTS are complex adaptive systems, societal resiliency may or may not occur, depending on dynamics that lack closed form solutions. Agent-based modeling has been shown to provide a viable theoretical and methodological approach for analyzing and understanding disasters and societal resiliency in CHANTS. Our approach advances the science of societal resilience through computational modeling and simulation methods that complement earlier statistical and mathematical approaches. We present three case studies of social dynamics modeling that demonstrate the use of these agent based models. In Central Asia, we exmaine mutltiple ensemble simulations with varying climate statistics to see how droughts and zuds affect populations, transmission of wealth across generations, and the overall structure of the social system. In Eastern Africa, we explore how successive episodes of drought events affect the adaptive capacity of rural households. Human displacement, mainly, rural to urban migration, and livelihood transition particularly from pastoral to farming are observed as rural households interacting dynamically with the biophysical environment and continually adjust their behavior to accommodate changes in climate. In the far north case we demonstrate one of the first successful attempts to model the complete climate-permafrost-infrastructure-societal interaction network as a complex adaptive system/CHANTS implemented as a ``federated'' agent-based model using evolutionary computation. Analysis of population changes resulting from extreme weather across these and other cases provides evidence for the emergence of new steady states and shifting patterns of resilience.

Consentaneous Agent-Based and Stochastic Model of the Financial Markets

PubMed Central

Gontis, Vygintas; Kononovicius, Aleksejus

2014-01-01

We are looking for the agent-based treatment of the financial markets considering necessity to build bridges between microscopic, agent based, and macroscopic, phenomenological modeling. The acknowledgment that agent-based modeling framework, which may provide qualitative and quantitative understanding of the financial markets, is very ambiguous emphasizes the exceptional value of well defined analytically tractable agent systems. Herding as one of the behavior peculiarities considered in the behavioral finance is the main property of the agent interactions we deal with in this contribution. Looking for the consentaneous agent-based and macroscopic approach we combine two origins of the noise: exogenous one, related to the information flow, and endogenous one, arising form the complex stochastic dynamics of agents. As a result we propose a three state agent-based herding model of the financial markets. From this agent-based model we derive a set of stochastic differential equations, which describes underlying macroscopic dynamics of agent population and log price in the financial markets. The obtained solution is then subjected to the exogenous noise, which shapes instantaneous return fluctuations. We test both Gaussian and q-Gaussian noise as a source of the short term fluctuations. The resulting model of the return in the financial markets with the same set of parameters reproduces empirical probability and spectral densities of absolute return observed in New York, Warsaw and NASDAQ OMX Vilnius Stock Exchanges. Our result confirms the prevalent idea in behavioral finance that herding interactions may be dominant over agent rationality and contribute towards bubble formation. PMID:25029364

Simulating cancer growth with multiscale agent-based modeling.

PubMed

Wang, Zhihui; Butner, Joseph D; Kerketta, Romica; Cristini, Vittorio; Deisboeck, Thomas S

2015-02-01

There have been many techniques developed in recent years to in silico model a variety of cancer behaviors. Agent-based modeling is a specific discrete-based hybrid modeling approach that allows simulating the role of diversity in cell populations as well as within each individual cell; it has therefore become a powerful modeling method widely used by computational cancer researchers. Many aspects of tumor morphology including phenotype-changing mutations, the adaptation to microenvironment, the process of angiogenesis, the influence of extracellular matrix, reactions to chemotherapy or surgical intervention, the effects of oxygen and nutrient availability, and metastasis and invasion of healthy tissues have been incorporated and investigated in agent-based models. In this review, we introduce some of the most recent agent-based models that have provided insight into the understanding of cancer growth and invasion, spanning multiple biological scales in time and space, and we further describe several experimentally testable hypotheses generated by those models. We also discuss some of the current challenges of multiscale agent-based cancer models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Grounding language in action and perception: From cognitive agents to humanoid robots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cangelosi, Angelo

2010-06-01

In this review we concentrate on a grounded approach to the modeling of cognition through the methodologies of cognitive agents and developmental robotics. This work will focus on the modeling of the evolutionary and developmental acquisition of linguistic capabilities based on the principles of symbol grounding. We review cognitive agent and developmental robotics models of the grounding of language to demonstrate their consistency with the empirical and theoretical evidence on language grounding and embodiment, and to reveal the benefits of such an approach in the design of linguistic capabilities in cognitive robotic agents. In particular, three different models will be discussed, where the complexity of the agent's sensorimotor and cognitive system gradually increases: from a multi-agent simulation of language evolution, to a simulated robotic agent model for symbol grounding transfer, to a model of language comprehension in the humanoid robot iCub. The review also discusses the benefits of the use of humanoid robotic platform, and specifically of the open source iCub platform, for the study of embodied cognition.

Multiscale Modeling of Angiogenesis and Predictive Capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pillay, Samara; Byrne, Helen; Maini, Philip

Tumors induce the growth of new blood vessels from existing vasculature through angiogenesis. Using an agent-based approach, we model the behavior of individual endothelial cells during angiogenesis. We incorporate crowding effects through volume exclusion, motility of cells through biased random walks, and include birth and death-like processes. We use the transition probabilities associated with the discrete model and a discrete conservation equation for cell occupancy to determine collective cell behavior, in terms of partial differential equations (PDEs). We derive three PDE models incorporating single, multi-species and no volume exclusion. By fitting the parameters in our PDE models and other well-established continuum models to agent-based simulations during a specific time period, and then comparing the outputs from the PDE models and agent-based model at later times, we aim to determine how well the PDE models predict the future behavior of the agent-based model. We also determine whether predictions differ across PDE models and the significance of those differences. This may impact drug development strategies based on PDE models.

Emulating a System Dynamics Model with Agent-Based Models: A Methodological Case Study in Simulation of Diabetes Progression

DOE PAGES

Schryver, Jack; Nutaro, James; Shankar, Mallikarjun

2015-10-30

An agent-based simulation model hierarchy emulating disease states and behaviors critical to progression of diabetes type 2 was designed and implemented in the DEVS framework. The models are translations of basic elements of an established system dynamics model of diabetes. In this model hierarchy, which mimics diabetes progression over an aggregated U.S. population, was dis-aggregated and reconstructed bottom-up at the individual (agent) level. Four levels of model complexity were defined in order to systematically evaluate which parameters are needed to mimic outputs of the system dynamics model. Moreover, the four estimated models attempted to replicate stock counts representing disease statesmore » in the system dynamics model, while estimating impacts of an elderliness factor, obesity factor and health-related behavioral parameters. Health-related behavior was modeled as a simple realization of the Theory of Planned Behavior, a joint function of individual attitude and diffusion of social norms that spread over each agent s social network. Although the most complex agent-based simulation model contained 31 adjustable parameters, all models were considerably less complex than the system dynamics model which required numerous time series inputs to make its predictions. In all three elaborations of the baseline model provided significantly improved fits to the output of the system dynamics model. The performances of the baseline agent-based model and its extensions illustrate a promising approach to translate complex system dynamics models into agent-based model alternatives that are both conceptually simpler and capable of capturing main effects of complex local agent-agent interactions.« less

Emulating a System Dynamics Model with Agent-Based Models: A Methodological Case Study in Simulation of Diabetes Progression

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schryver, Jack; Nutaro, James; Shankar, Mallikarjun

An agent-based simulation model hierarchy emulating disease states and behaviors critical to progression of diabetes type 2 was designed and implemented in the DEVS framework. The models are translations of basic elements of an established system dynamics model of diabetes. In this model hierarchy, which mimics diabetes progression over an aggregated U.S. population, was dis-aggregated and reconstructed bottom-up at the individual (agent) level. Four levels of model complexity were defined in order to systematically evaluate which parameters are needed to mimic outputs of the system dynamics model. Moreover, the four estimated models attempted to replicate stock counts representing disease statesmore » in the system dynamics model, while estimating impacts of an elderliness factor, obesity factor and health-related behavioral parameters. Health-related behavior was modeled as a simple realization of the Theory of Planned Behavior, a joint function of individual attitude and diffusion of social norms that spread over each agent s social network. Although the most complex agent-based simulation model contained 31 adjustable parameters, all models were considerably less complex than the system dynamics model which required numerous time series inputs to make its predictions. In all three elaborations of the baseline model provided significantly improved fits to the output of the system dynamics model. The performances of the baseline agent-based model and its extensions illustrate a promising approach to translate complex system dynamics models into agent-based model alternatives that are both conceptually simpler and capable of capturing main effects of complex local agent-agent interactions.« less

The comparison of the use of holonic and agent-based methods in modelling of manufacturing systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foit, K.; Banaś, W.; Gwiazda, A.; Hryniewicz, P.

2017-08-01

The rapid evolution in the field of industrial automation and manufacturing is often called the 4th Industry Revolution. Worldwide availability of the internet access contributes to the competition between manufacturers, gives the opportunity for buying materials, parts and for creating the partnership networks, like cloud manufacturing, grid manufacturing (MGrid), virtual enterprises etc. The effect of the industry evolution is the need to search for new solutions in the field of manufacturing systems modelling and simulation. During the last decade researchers have developed the agent-based approach of modelling. This methodology have been taken from the computer science, but was adapted to the philosophy of industrial automation and robotization. The operation of the agent-based system depends on the simultaneous acting of different agents that may have different roles. On the other hand, there is the holon-based approach that uses the structures created by holons. It differs from the agent-based structure in some aspects, while the other ones are quite similar in both methodologies. The aim of this paper is to present the both methodologies and discuss the similarities and the differences. This may could help to select the optimal method of modelling, according to the considered problem and software resources.

An Approach to Model Based Testing of Multiagent Systems

PubMed Central

Nadeem, Aamer

2015-01-01

Autonomous agents perform on behalf of the user to achieve defined goals or objectives. They are situated in dynamic environment and are able to operate autonomously to achieve their goals. In a multiagent system, agents cooperate with each other to achieve a common goal. Testing of multiagent systems is a challenging task due to the autonomous and proactive behavior of agents. However, testing is required to build confidence into the working of a multiagent system. Prometheus methodology is a commonly used approach to design multiagents systems. Systematic and thorough testing of each interaction is necessary. This paper proposes a novel approach to testing of multiagent systems based on Prometheus design artifacts. In the proposed approach, different interactions between the agent and actors are considered to test the multiagent system. These interactions include percepts and actions along with messages between the agents which can be modeled in a protocol diagram. The protocol diagram is converted into a protocol graph, on which different coverage criteria are applied to generate test paths that cover interactions between the agents. A prototype tool has been developed to generate test paths from protocol graph according to the specified coverage criterion. PMID:25874263

A Bayesian Developmental Approach to Robotic Goal-Based Imitation Learning.

PubMed

Chung, Michael Jae-Yoon; Friesen, Abram L; Fox, Dieter; Meltzoff, Andrew N; Rao, Rajesh P N

2015-01-01

A fundamental challenge in robotics today is building robots that can learn new skills by observing humans and imitating human actions. We propose a new Bayesian approach to robotic learning by imitation inspired by the developmental hypothesis that children use self-experience to bootstrap the process of intention recognition and goal-based imitation. Our approach allows an autonomous agent to: (i) learn probabilistic models of actions through self-discovery and experience, (ii) utilize these learned models for inferring the goals of human actions, and (iii) perform goal-based imitation for robotic learning and human-robot collaboration. Such an approach allows a robot to leverage its increasing repertoire of learned behaviors to interpret increasingly complex human actions and use the inferred goals for imitation, even when the robot has very different actuators from humans. We demonstrate our approach using two different scenarios: (i) a simulated robot that learns human-like gaze following behavior, and (ii) a robot that learns to imitate human actions in a tabletop organization task. In both cases, the agent learns a probabilistic model of its own actions, and uses this model for goal inference and goal-based imitation. We also show that the robotic agent can use its probabilistic model to seek human assistance when it recognizes that its inferred actions are too uncertain, risky, or impossible to perform, thereby opening the door to human-robot collaboration.

A Bayesian Developmental Approach to Robotic Goal-Based Imitation Learning

PubMed Central

Chung, Michael Jae-Yoon; Friesen, Abram L.; Fox, Dieter; Meltzoff, Andrew N.; Rao, Rajesh P. N.

2015-01-01

A fundamental challenge in robotics today is building robots that can learn new skills by observing humans and imitating human actions. We propose a new Bayesian approach to robotic learning by imitation inspired by the developmental hypothesis that children use self-experience to bootstrap the process of intention recognition and goal-based imitation. Our approach allows an autonomous agent to: (i) learn probabilistic models of actions through self-discovery and experience, (ii) utilize these learned models for inferring the goals of human actions, and (iii) perform goal-based imitation for robotic learning and human-robot collaboration. Such an approach allows a robot to leverage its increasing repertoire of learned behaviors to interpret increasingly complex human actions and use the inferred goals for imitation, even when the robot has very different actuators from humans. We demonstrate our approach using two different scenarios: (i) a simulated robot that learns human-like gaze following behavior, and (ii) a robot that learns to imitate human actions in a tabletop organization task. In both cases, the agent learns a probabilistic model of its own actions, and uses this model for goal inference and goal-based imitation. We also show that the robotic agent can use its probabilistic model to seek human assistance when it recognizes that its inferred actions are too uncertain, risky, or impossible to perform, thereby opening the door to human-robot collaboration. PMID:26536366

Quantitative Analysis of Intra Urban Growth Modeling using socio economic agents by combining cellular automata model with agent based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, V. K.; Jha, A. K.; Gupta, K.; Srivastav, S. K.

2017-12-01

Recent studies indicate that there is a significant improvement in the urban land use dynamics through modeling at finer spatial resolutions. Geo-computational models such as cellular automata and agent based model have given evident proof regarding the quantification of the urban growth pattern with urban boundary. In recent studies, socio- economic factors such as demography, education rate, household density, parcel price of the current year, distance to road, school, hospital, commercial centers and police station are considered to the major factors influencing the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) pattern of the city. These factors have unidirectional approach to land use pattern which makes it difficult to analyze the spatial aspects of model results both quantitatively and qualitatively. In this study, cellular automata model is combined with generic model known as Agent Based Model to evaluate the impact of socio economic factors on land use pattern. For this purpose, Dehradun an Indian city is selected as a case study. Socio economic factors were collected from field survey, Census of India, Directorate of economic census, Uttarakhand, India. A 3X3 simulating window is used to consider the impact on LULC. Cellular automata model results are examined for the identification of hot spot areas within the urban area and agent based model will be using logistic based regression approach where it will identify the correlation between each factor on LULC and classify the available area into low density, medium density, high density residential or commercial area. In the modeling phase, transition rule, neighborhood effect, cell change factors are used to improve the representation of built-up classes. Significant improvement is observed in the built-up classes from 84 % to 89 %. However after incorporating agent based model with cellular automata model the accuracy improved from 89 % to 94 % in 3 classes of urban i.e. low density, medium density and commercial classes. Sensitivity study of the model indicated that southern and south-west part of the city have shown improvement and small patches of growth are also observed in the north western part of the city.The study highlights the growing importance of socio economic factors and geo-computational modeling approach on changing LULC of newly growing cities of modern India.

Agent-based modeling of the immune system: NetLogo, a promising framework.

PubMed

Chiacchio, Ferdinando; Pennisi, Marzio; Russo, Giulia; Motta, Santo; Pappalardo, Francesco

2014-01-01

Several components that interact with each other to evolve a complex, and, in some cases, unexpected behavior, represents one of the main and fascinating features of the mammalian immune system. Agent-based modeling and cellular automata belong to a class of discrete mathematical approaches in which entities (agents) sense local information and undertake actions over time according to predefined rules. The strength of this approach is characterized by the appearance of a global behavior that emerges from interactions among agents. This behavior is unpredictable, as it does not follow linear rules. There are a lot of works that investigates the immune system with agent-based modeling and cellular automata. They have shown the ability to see clearly and intuitively into the nature of immunological processes. NetLogo is a multiagent programming language and modeling environment for simulating complex phenomena. It is designed for both research and education and is used across a wide range of disciplines and education levels. In this paper, we summarize NetLogo applications to immunology and, particularly, how this framework can help in the development and formulation of hypotheses that might drive further experimental investigations of disease mechanisms.

Research on monocentric model of urbanization by agent-based simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Ling; Yang, Kaizhong

2008-10-01

Over the past years, GIS have been widely used for modeling urbanization from a variety of perspectives such as digital terrain representation and overlay analysis using cell-based data platform. Similarly, simulation of urban dynamics has been achieved with the use of Cellular Automata. In contrast to these approaches, agent-based simulation provides a much more powerful set of tools. This allows researchers to set up a counterpart for real environmental and urban systems in computer for experimentation and scenario analysis. This Paper basically reviews the research on the economic mechanism of urbanization and an agent-based monocentric model is setup for further understanding the urbanization process and mechanism in China. We build an endogenous growth model with dynamic interactions between spatial agglomeration and urban development by using agent-based simulation. It simulates the migration decisions of two main types of agents, namely rural and urban households between rural and urban area. The model contains multiple economic interactions that are crucial in understanding urbanization and industrial process in China. These adaptive agents can adjust their supply and demand according to the market situation by a learning algorithm. The simulation result shows this agent-based urban model is able to perform the regeneration and to produce likely-to-occur projections of reality.

Exploring complex dynamics in multi agent-based intelligent systems: Theoretical and experimental approaches using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandridis, Konstantinos T.

This dissertation adopts a holistic and detailed approach to modeling spatially explicit agent-based artificial intelligent systems, using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model. The research questions that addresses stem from the need to understand and analyze the real-world patterns and dynamics of land use change from a coupled human-environmental systems perspective. Describes the systemic, mathematical, statistical, socio-economic and spatial dynamics of the MABEL modeling framework, and provides a wide array of cross-disciplinary modeling applications within the research, decision-making and policy domains. Establishes the symbolic properties of the MABEL model as a Markov decision process, analyzes the decision-theoretic utility and optimization attributes of agents towards comprising statistically and spatially optimal policies and actions, and explores the probabilogic character of the agents' decision-making and inference mechanisms via the use of Bayesian belief and decision networks. Develops and describes a Monte Carlo methodology for experimental replications of agent's decisions regarding complex spatial parcel acquisition and learning. Recognizes the gap on spatially-explicit accuracy assessment techniques for complex spatial models, and proposes an ensemble of statistical tools designed to address this problem. Advanced information assessment techniques such as the Receiver-Operator Characteristic curve, the impurity entropy and Gini functions, and the Bayesian classification functions are proposed. The theoretical foundation for modular Bayesian inference in spatially-explicit multi-agent artificial intelligent systems, and the ensembles of cognitive and scenario assessment modular tools build for the MABEL model are provided. Emphasizes the modularity and robustness as valuable qualitative modeling attributes, and examines the role of robust intelligent modeling as a tool for improving policy-decisions related to land use change. Finally, the major contributions to the science are presented along with valuable directions for future research.

Automatic negotiation: playing the domain instead of the opponent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erez, Eden S.; Zuckerman, Inon; Hermel, Dror

2017-05-01

An automated negotiator is an intelligent agent whose task is to reach the best possible agreement. We explore a novel approach to developing a negotiation strategy, a 'domain-based approach'. Specifically, we use two domain parameters, reservation value and discount factor, to cluster the domain into different regions, in each of which we employ a heuristic strategy based on the notions of temporal flexibility and bargaining strength. Following the presentation of our cognitive and formal models, we show in an extensive experimental study that an agent based on that approach wins against the top agents of the automated negotiation competition of 2012 and 2013, and attained the second place in 2014.

Adapting Price Predictions in TAC SCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pardoe, David; Stone, Peter

In agent-based markets, adapting to the behavior of other agents is often necessary for success. When it is not possible to directly model individual competitors, an agent may instead model and adapt to the market conditions that result from competitor behavior. Such an agent could still benefit from reasoning about specific competitor strategies by considering how various combinations of these strategies would impact the conditions being modeled. We present an application of such an approach to a specific prediction problem faced by the agent TacTex-06 in the Trading Agent Competition's Supply Chain Management scenario (TAC SCM).

Grounding language in action and perception: from cognitive agents to humanoid robots.

PubMed

Cangelosi, Angelo

2010-06-01

In this review we concentrate on a grounded approach to the modeling of cognition through the methodologies of cognitive agents and developmental robotics. This work will focus on the modeling of the evolutionary and developmental acquisition of linguistic capabilities based on the principles of symbol grounding. We review cognitive agent and developmental robotics models of the grounding of language to demonstrate their consistency with the empirical and theoretical evidence on language grounding and embodiment, and to reveal the benefits of such an approach in the design of linguistic capabilities in cognitive robotic agents. In particular, three different models will be discussed, where the complexity of the agent's sensorimotor and cognitive system gradually increases: from a multi-agent simulation of language evolution, to a simulated robotic agent model for symbol grounding transfer, to a model of language comprehension in the humanoid robot iCub. The review also discusses the benefits of the use of humanoid robotic platform, and specifically of the open source iCub platform, for the study of embodied cognition. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Comparison of Three Approaches to Model Human Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmius, Joel; Persson-Slumpi, Thomas

2010-11-01

One way of studying social processes is through the use of simulations. The use of simulations for this purpose has been established as its own field, social simulations, and has been used for studying a variety of phenomena. A simulation of a social setting can serve as an aid for thinking about that social setting, and for experimenting with different parameters and studying the outcomes caused by them. When using the simulation as an aid for thinking and experimenting, the chosen simulation approach will implicitly steer the simulationist towards thinking in a certain fashion in order to fit the model. To study the implications of model choice on the understanding of a setting where human anticipation comes into play, a simulation scenario of a coffee room was constructed using three different simulation approaches: Cellular Automata, Systems Dynamics and Agent-based modeling. The practical implementations of the models were done in three different simulation packages: Stella for Systems Dynamic, CaFun for Cellular automata and SesAM for Agent-based modeling. The models were evaluated both using Randers' criteria for model evaluation, and through introspection where the authors reflected upon how their understanding of the scenario was steered through the model choice. Further the software used for implementing the simulation models was evaluated, and practical considerations for the choice of software package are listed. It is concluded that the models have very different strengths. The Agent-based modeling approach offers the most intuitive support for thinking about and modeling a social setting where the behavior of the individual is in focus. The Systems Dynamics model would be preferable in situations where populations and large groups would be studied as wholes, but where individual behavior is of less concern. The Cellular Automata models would be preferable where processes need to be studied from the basis of a small set of very simple rules. It is further concluded that in most social simulation settings the Agent-based modeling approach would be the probable choice. This since the other models does not offer much in the way of supporting the modeling of the anticipatory behavior of humans acting in an organization.

Combining human and machine intelligence to derive agents' behavioral rules for groundwater irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yao; Quinn, Christopher J.; Cai, Ximing; Garfinkle, Noah W.

2017-11-01

For agent-based modeling, the major challenges in deriving agents' behavioral rules arise from agents' bounded rationality and data scarcity. This study proposes a "gray box" approach to address the challenge by incorporating expert domain knowledge (i.e., human intelligence) with machine learning techniques (i.e., machine intelligence). Specifically, we propose using directed information graph (DIG), boosted regression trees (BRT), and domain knowledge to infer causal factors and identify behavioral rules from data. A case study is conducted to investigate farmers' pumping behavior in the Midwest, U.S.A. Results show that four factors identified by the DIG algorithm- corn price, underlying groundwater level, monthly mean temperature and precipitation- have main causal influences on agents' decisions on monthly groundwater irrigation depth. The agent-based model is then developed based on the behavioral rules represented by three DIGs and modeled by BRTs, and coupled with a physically-based groundwater model to investigate the impacts of agents' pumping behavior on the underlying groundwater system in the context of coupled human and environmental systems.

The LUE data model for representation of agents and fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Jong, Kor; Schmitz, Oliver; Karssenberg, Derek

2017-04-01

Traditionally, agents-based and field-based modelling environments use different data models to represent the state of information they manipulate. In agent-based modelling, involving the representation of phenomena as objects bounded in space and time, agents are often represented by classes, each of which represents a particular kind of agent and all its properties. Such classes can be used to represent entities like people, birds, cars and countries. In field-based modelling, involving the representation of the environment as continuous fields, fields are often represented by a discretization of space, using multidimensional arrays, each storing mostly a single attribute. Such arrays can be used to represent the elevation of the land-surface, the pH of the soil, or the population density in an area, for example. Representing a population of agents by class instances grouped in collections is an intuitive way of organizing information. A drawback, though, is that models in which class instances grouping properties are stored in collections are less efficient (execute slower) than models in which collections of properties are grouped. The field representation, on the other hand, is convenient for the efficient execution of models. Another drawback is that, because the data models used are so different, integrating agent-based and field-based models becomes difficult, since the model builder has to deal with multiple concepts, and often multiple modelling environments. With the development of the LUE data model [1] we aim at representing agents and fields within a single paradigm, by combining the advantages of the data models used in agent-based and field-based data modelling. This removes the barrier for writing integrated agent-based and field-based models. The resulting data model is intuitive to use and allows for efficient execution of models. LUE is both a high-level conceptual data model and a low-level physical data model. The LUE conceptual data model is a generalization of the data models used in agent-based and field-based modelling. The LUE physical data model [2] is an implementation of the LUE conceptual data model in HDF5. In our presentation we will provide details of our approach to organizing information about agents and fields. We will show examples of agent and field data represented by the conceptual and physical data model. References: [1] de Bakker, M.P., de Jong, K., Schmitz, O., Karssenberg, D., 2016. Design and demonstration of a data model to integrate agent-based and field-based modelling. Environmental Modelling and Software. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.11.016 [2] de Jong, K., 2017. LUE source code. https://github.com/pcraster/lue

A decentralised multi-agent approach to enhance the stability of smart microgrids with renewable energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, M. S.; Pota, H. R.; Mahmud, M. A.; Hossain, M. J.

2016-05-01

This paper presents the impact of large penetration of wind power on the transient stability through a dynamic evaluation of the critical clearing times (CCTs) by using intelligent agent-based approach. A decentralised multi-agent-based framework is developed, where agents represent a number of physical device models to form a complex infrastructure for computation and communication. They enable the dynamic flow of information and energy for the interaction between the physical processes and their activities. These agents dynamically adapt online measurements and use the CCT information for relay coordination to improve the transient stability of power systems. Simulations are carried out on a smart microgrid system for faults at increasing wind power penetration levels and the improvement in transient stability using the proposed agent-based framework is demonstrated.

How new concepts become universal scientific approaches: insights from citation network analysis of agent-based complex systems science.

PubMed

Vincenot, Christian E

2018-03-14

Progress in understanding and managing complex systems comprised of decision-making agents, such as cells, organisms, ecosystems or societies, is-like many scientific endeavours-limited by disciplinary boundaries. These boundaries, however, are moving and can actively be made porous or even disappear. To study this process, I advanced an original bibliometric approach based on network analysis to track and understand the development of the model-based science of agent-based complex systems (ACS). I analysed research citations between the two communities devoted to ACS research, namely agent-based (ABM) and individual-based modelling (IBM). Both terms refer to the same approach, yet the former is preferred in engineering and social sciences, while the latter prevails in natural sciences. This situation provided a unique case study for grasping how a new concept evolves distinctly across scientific domains and how to foster convergence into a universal scientific approach. The present analysis based on novel hetero-citation metrics revealed the historical development of ABM and IBM, confirmed their past disjointedness, and detected their progressive merger. The separation between these synonymous disciplines had silently opposed the free flow of knowledge among ACS practitioners and thereby hindered the transfer of methodological advances and the emergence of general systems theories. A surprisingly small number of key publications sparked the ongoing fusion between ABM and IBM research. Beside reviews raising awareness of broad-spectrum issues, generic protocols for model formulation and boundary-transcending inference strategies were critical means of science integration. Accessible broad-spectrum software similarly contributed to this change. From the modelling viewpoint, the discovery of the unification of ABM and IBM demonstrates that a wide variety of systems substantiate the premise of ACS research that microscale behaviours of agents and system-level dynamics are inseparably bound. © 2018 The Author(s).

Modeling of a production system using the multi-agent approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gwiazda, A.; Sękala, A.; Banaś, W.

2017-08-01

The method that allows for the analysis of complex systems is a multi-agent simulation. The multi-agent simulation (Agent-based modeling and simulation - ABMS) is modeling of complex systems consisting of independent agents. In the case of the model of the production system agents may be manufactured pieces set apart from other types of agents like machine tools, conveyors or replacements stands. Agents are magazines and buffers. More generally speaking, the agents in the model can be single individuals, but you can also be defined as agents of collective entities. They are allowed hierarchical structures. It means that a single agent could belong to a certain class. Depending on the needs of the agent may also be a natural or physical resource. From a technical point of view, the agent is a bundle of data and rules describing its behavior in different situations. Agents can be autonomous or non-autonomous in making the decision about the types of classes of agents, class sizes and types of connections between elements of the system. Multi-agent modeling is a very flexible technique for modeling and model creating in the convention that could be adapted to any research problem analyzed from different points of views. One of the major problems associated with the organization of production is the spatial organization of the production process. Secondly, it is important to include the optimal scheduling. For this purpose use can approach multi-purposeful. In this regard, the model of the production process will refer to the design and scheduling of production space for four different elements. The program system was developed in the environment NetLogo. It was also used elements of artificial intelligence. The main agent represents the manufactured pieces that, according to previously assumed rules, generate the technological route and allow preprint the schedule of that line. Machine lines, reorientation stands, conveyors and transport devices also represent the other type of agent that are utilized in the described simulation. The article presents the idea of an integrated program approach and shows the resulting production layout as a virtual model. This model was developed in the NetLogo multi-agent program environment.

Designing an Agent-Based Model Using Group Model Building: Application to Food Insecurity Patterns in a U.S. Midwestern Metropolitan City.

PubMed

Koh, Keumseok; Reno, Rebecca; Hyder, Ayaz

2018-04-01

Recent advances in computing resources have increased interest in systems modeling and population health. While group model building (GMB) has been effectively applied in developing system dynamics models (SD), few studies have used GMB for developing an agent-based model (ABM). This article explores the use of a GMB approach to develop an ABM focused on food insecurity. In our GMB workshops, we modified a set of the standard GMB scripts to develop and validate an ABM in collaboration with local experts and stakeholders. Based on this experience, we learned that GMB is a useful collaborative modeling platform for modelers and community experts to address local population health issues. We also provide suggestions for increasing the use of the GMB approach to develop rigorous, useful, and validated ABMs.

Going beyond the unitary curve: incorporating richer cognition into agent-based water resources models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kock, B. E.

2008-12-01

The increased availability and understanding of agent-based modeling technology and techniques provides a unique opportunity for water resources modelers, allowing them to go beyond traditional behavioral approaches from neoclassical economics, and add rich cognition to social-hydrological models. Agent-based models provide for an individual focus, and the easier and more realistic incorporation of learning, memory and other mechanisms for increased cognitive sophistication. We are in an age of global change impacting complex water resources systems, and social responses are increasingly recognized as fundamentally adaptive and emergent. In consideration of this, water resources models and modelers need to better address social dynamics in a manner beyond the capabilities of neoclassical economics theory and practice. However, going beyond the unitary curve requires unique levels of engagement with stakeholders, both to elicit the richer knowledge necessary for structuring and parameterizing agent-based models, but also to make sure such models are appropriately used. With the aim of encouraging epistemological and methodological convergence in the agent-based modeling of water resources, we have developed a water resources-specific cognitive model and an associated collaborative modeling process. Our cognitive model emphasizes efficiency in architecture and operation, and capacity to adapt to different application contexts. We describe a current application of this cognitive model and modeling process in the Arkansas Basin of Colorado. In particular, we highlight the potential benefits of, and challenges to, using more sophisticated cognitive models in agent-based water resources models.

A Watershed-Scale Agent-Based Model Incorporating Agent Learning and Interaction of Farmers' Decisions Subject to Carbon and Miscanthus Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, T.; Eheart, J.; Cai, X.; Braden, J. B.

2010-12-01

Agricultural watersheds are coupled human-natural systems where the land use decisions of human agents (farmers) affect surface water quality, and in turn, are affected by the weather and yields. The reliable modeling of such systems requires an approach that considers both the human and natural aspects. Agent-based modeling (ABM), representing the human aspect, coupled with hydrologic modeling, representing the natural aspect, is one such approach. ABM is a relatively new modeling paradigm that formulates the system from the perspectives of the individual agents, i.e., each agent is modeled as a discrete autonomous entity with distinct goals and actions. The primary objective of this study is to demonstrate the applicability of this approach to agricultural watershed management. This is done using a semi-hypothetical case study of farmers in the Salt Creek watershed in East-Central Illinois under the influence markets for carbon and second-generation bioenergy crop (specifically, miscanthus). An agent-based model of the system is developed and linked to a hydrologic model of the watershed. The former is based on fundamental economic and mathematical programming principles, while the latter is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Carbon and second-generation bioenergy crop markets are of interest here due to climate change and energy independence concerns. The agent-based model is applied to fifty hypothetical heterogeneous farmers. The farmers' decisions depend on their perceptions of future conditions. Those perceptions are updated, according to a pre-defined algorithm, as the farmers make new observations of prices, costs, yields and the weather with time. The perceptions are also updated as the farmers interact with each other as they share new information on initially unfamiliar activities (e.g., carbon trading, miscanthus cultivation). The updating algorithm is set differently for different farmers such that each is unique in his processing of new information. The results provide insights on how differences in the way farmers learn and adapt affect their forecasts of the future, and hence, decisions. Farmers who are interacting, less risk averse, quick to adjust their expectations with new observations, and slow to reduce their forecast confidence when there are unexpected changes are more likely to practice conservation tillage (farmers may claim carbon credits for sale when practicing conservation tillage), and switch from conventional crops to miscanthus. The results, though empirically untested, appear plausible and consistent with general behavior by farmers. All this demonstrates the ability and potential of ABM to capture, at least partially, the complexities of human decision-making.

Complex dynamics and empirical evidence (Invited Paper)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delli Gatti, Domenico; Gaffeo, Edoardo; Giulioni, Gianfranco; Gallegati, Mauro; Kirman, Alan; Palestrini, Antonio; Russo, Alberto

2005-05-01

Standard macroeconomics, based on a reductionist approach centered on the representative agent, is badly equipped to explain the empirical evidence where heterogeneity and industrial dynamics are the rule. In this paper we show that a simple agent-based model of heterogeneous financially fragile agents is able to replicate a large number of scaling type stylized facts with a remarkable degree of statistical precision.

Strategic directions for agent-based modeling: avoiding the YAAWN syndrome.

PubMed

O'Sullivan, David; Evans, Tom; Manson, Steven; Metcalf, Sara; Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika; Bone, Chris

In this short communication, we examine how agent-based modeling has become common in land change science and is increasingly used to develop case studies for particular times and places. There is a danger that the research community is missing a prime opportunity to learn broader lessons from the use of agent-based modeling (ABM), or at the very least not sharing these lessons more widely. How do we find an appropriate balance between empirically rich, realistic models and simpler theoretically grounded models? What are appropriate and effective approaches to model evaluation in light of uncertainties not only in model parameters but also in model structure? How can we best explore hybrid model structures that enable us to better understand the dynamics of the systems under study, recognizing that no single approach is best suited to this task? Under what circumstances - in terms of model complexity, model evaluation, and model structure - can ABMs be used most effectively to lead to new insight for stakeholders? We explore these questions in the hope of helping the growing community of land change scientists using models in their research to move from 'yet another model' to doing better science with models.

Verifying Multi-Agent Systems via Unbounded Model Checking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kacprzak, M.; Lomuscio, A.; Lasica, T.; Penczek, W.; Szreter, M.

2004-01-01

We present an approach to the problem of verification of epistemic properties in multi-agent systems by means of symbolic model checking. In particular, it is shown how to extend the technique of unbounded model checking from a purely temporal setting to a temporal-epistemic one. In order to achieve this, we base our discussion on interpreted systems semantics, a popular semantics used in multi-agent systems literature. We give details of the technique and show how it can be applied to the well known train, gate and controller problem. Keywords: model checking, unbounded model checking, multi-agent systems

IPA (v1): a framework for agent-based modelling of soil water movement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mewes, Benjamin; Schumann, Andreas H.

2018-06-01

In the last decade, agent-based modelling (ABM) became a popular modelling technique in social sciences, medicine, biology, and ecology. ABM was designed to simulate systems that are highly dynamic and sensitive to small variations in their composition and their state. As hydrological systems, and natural systems in general, often show dynamic and non-linear behaviour, ABM can be an appropriate way to model these systems. Nevertheless, only a few studies have utilized the ABM method for process-based modelling in hydrology. The percolation of water through the unsaturated soil is highly responsive to the current state of the soil system; small variations in composition lead to major changes in the transport system. Hence, we present a new approach for modelling the movement of water through a soil column: autonomous water agents that transport water through the soil while interacting with their environment as well as with other agents under physical laws.

A Coupled Simulation Architecture for Agent-Based/Geohydrological Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaxa-Rozen, M.

2016-12-01

The quantitative modelling of social-ecological systems can provide useful insights into the interplay between social and environmental processes, and their impact on emergent system dynamics. However, such models should acknowledge the complexity and uncertainty of both of the underlying subsystems. For instance, the agent-based models which are increasingly popular for groundwater management studies can be made more useful by directly accounting for the hydrological processes which drive environmental outcomes. Conversely, conventional environmental models can benefit from an agent-based depiction of the feedbacks and heuristics which influence the decisions of groundwater users. From this perspective, this work describes a Python-based software architecture which couples the popular NetLogo agent-based platform with the MODFLOW/SEAWAT geohydrological modelling environment. This approach enables users to implement agent-based models in NetLogo's user-friendly platform, while benefiting from the full capabilities of MODFLOW/SEAWAT packages or reusing existing geohydrological models. The software architecture is based on the pyNetLogo connector, which provides an interface between the NetLogo agent-based modelling software and the Python programming language. This functionality is then extended and combined with Python's object-oriented features, to design a simulation architecture which couples NetLogo with MODFLOW/SEAWAT through the FloPy library (Bakker et al., 2016). The Python programming language also provides access to a range of external packages which can be used for testing and analysing the coupled models, which is illustrated for an application of Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES).

Strategic directions for agent-based modeling: avoiding the YAAWN syndrome

PubMed Central

O’Sullivan, David; Evans, Tom; Manson, Steven; Metcalf, Sara; Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika; Bone, Chris

2015-01-01

In this short communication, we examine how agent-based modeling has become common in land change science and is increasingly used to develop case studies for particular times and places. There is a danger that the research community is missing a prime opportunity to learn broader lessons from the use of agent-based modeling (ABM), or at the very least not sharing these lessons more widely. How do we find an appropriate balance between empirically rich, realistic models and simpler theoretically grounded models? What are appropriate and effective approaches to model evaluation in light of uncertainties not only in model parameters but also in model structure? How can we best explore hybrid model structures that enable us to better understand the dynamics of the systems under study, recognizing that no single approach is best suited to this task? Under what circumstances – in terms of model complexity, model evaluation, and model structure – can ABMs be used most effectively to lead to new insight for stakeholders? We explore these questions in the hope of helping the growing community of land change scientists using models in their research to move from ‘yet another model’ to doing better science with models. PMID:27158257

Model of mobile agents for sexual interactions networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, M. C.; Lind, P. G.; Herrmann, H. J.

2006-02-01

We present a novel model to simulate real social networks of complex interactions, based in a system of colliding particles (agents). The network is build by keeping track of the collisions and evolves in time with correlations which emerge due to the mobility of the agents. Therefore, statistical features are a consequence only of local collisions among its individual agents. Agent dynamics is realized by an event-driven algorithm of collisions where energy is gained as opposed to physical systems which have dissipation. The model reproduces empirical data from networks of sexual interactions, not previously obtained with other approaches.

Numeric, Agent-based or System Dynamics Model? Which Modeling Approach is the Best for Vast Population Simulation?

PubMed

Cimler, Richard; Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Dolezal, Ondrej; Pscheidl, Pavel; Kuca, Kamil

2018-01-01

Alzheimer's disease is one of the most common mental illnesses. It is posited that more than 25% of the population is affected by some mental disease during their lifetime. Treatment of each patient draws resources from the economy concerned. Therefore, it is important to quantify the potential economic impact. Agent-based, system dynamics and numerical approaches to dynamic modeling of the population of the European Union and its patients with Alzheimer's disease are presented in this article. Simulations, their characteristics, and the results from different modeling tools are compared. The results of these approaches are compared with EU population growth predictions from the statistical office of the EU by Eurostat. The methodology of a creation of the models is described and all three modeling approaches are compared. The suitability of each modeling approach for the population modeling is discussed. In this case study, all three approaches gave us the results corresponding with the EU population prediction. Moreover, we were able to predict the number of patients with AD and, based on the modeling method, we were also able to monitor different characteristics of the population. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

An agent-based computational model of the spread of tuberculosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Espíndola, Aquino L.; Bauch, Chris T.; Troca Cabella, Brenno C.; Souto Martinez, Alexandre

2011-05-01

In this work we propose an alternative model of the spread of tuberculosis (TB) and the emergence of drug resistance due to the treatment with antibiotics. We implement the simulations by an agent-based model computational approach where the spatial structure is taken into account. The spread of tuberculosis occurs according to probabilities defined by the interactions among individuals. The model was validated by reproducing results already known from the literature in which different treatment regimes yield the emergence of drug resistance. The different patterns of TB spread can be visualized at any time of the system evolution. The implementation details as well as some results of this alternative approach are discussed.

Model-Drive Architecture for Agent-Based Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gradanin, Denis; Singh, H. Lally; Bohner, Shawn A.; Hinchey, Michael G.

2004-01-01

The Model Driven Architecture (MDA) approach uses a platform-independent model to define system functionality, or requirements, using some specification language. The requirements are then translated to a platform-specific model for implementation. An agent architecture based on the human cognitive model of planning, the Cognitive Agent Architecture (Cougaar) is selected for the implementation platform. The resulting Cougaar MDA prescribes certain kinds of models to be used, how those models may be prepared and the relationships of the different kinds of models. Using the existing Cougaar architecture, the level of application composition is elevated from individual components to domain level model specifications in order to generate software artifacts. The software artifacts generation is based on a metamodel. Each component maps to a UML structured component which is then converted into multiple artifacts: Cougaar/Java code, documentation, and test cases.

Model-based synthesis of locally contingent responses to global market signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magliocca, N. R.

2015-12-01

Rural livelihoods and the land systems on which they depend are increasingly influenced by distant markets through economic globalization. Place-based analyses of land and livelihood system sustainability must then consider both proximate and distant influences on local decision-making. Thus, advancing land change theory in the context of economic globalization calls for a systematic understanding of the general processes as well as local contingencies shaping local responses to global signals. Synthesis of insights from place-based case studies of land and livelihood change is a path forward for developing such systematic knowledge. This paper introduces a model-based synthesis approach to investigating the influence of local socio-environmental and agent-level factors in mediating land-use and livelihood responses to changing global market signals. A generalized agent-based modeling framework is applied to six case-study sites that differ in environmental conditions, market access and influence, and livelihood settings. The largest modeled land conversions and livelihood transitions to market-oriented production occurred in sties with relatively productive agricultural land and/or with limited livelihood options. Experimental shifts in the distributions of agents' risk tolerances generally acted to attenuate or amplify responses to changes in global market signals. Importantly, however, responses of agents at different points in the risk tolerance distribution varied widely, with the wealth gap growing wider between agents with higher or lower risk tolerance. These results demonstrate model-based synthesis is a promising approach to overcome many of the challenges of current synthesis methods in land change science, and to identify generalized as well as locally contingent responses to global market signals.

Model-based Executive Control through Reactive Planning for Autonomous Rovers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Finzi, Alberto; Ingrand, Felix; Muscettola, Nicola

2004-01-01

This paper reports on the design and implementation of a real-time executive for a mobile rover that uses a model-based, declarative approach. The control system is based on the Intelligent Distributed Execution Architecture (IDEA), an approach to planning and execution that provides a unified representational and computational framework for an autonomous agent. The basic hypothesis of IDEA is that a large control system can be structured as a collection of interacting agents, each with the same fundamental structure. We show that planning and real-time response are compatible if the executive minimizes the size of the planning problem. We detail the implementation of this approach on an exploration rover (Gromit an RWI ATRV Junior at NASA Ames) presenting different IDEA controllers of the same domain and comparing them with more classical approaches. We demonstrate that the approach is scalable to complex coordination of functional modules needed for autonomous navigation and exploration.

Combining agent-based modeling and life cycle assessment for the evaluation of mobility policies.

PubMed

Florent, Querini; Enrico, Benetto

2015-02-03

This article presents agent-based modeling (ABM) as a novel approach for consequential life cycle assessment (C-LCA) of large scale policies, more specifically mobility-related policies. The approach is validated at the Luxembourgish level (as a first case study). The agent-based model simulates the car market (sales, use, and dismantling) of the population of users in the period 2013-2020, following the implementation of different mobility policies and available electric vehicles. The resulting changes in the car fleet composition as well as the hourly uses of the vehicles are then used to derive consistent LCA results, representing the consequences of the policies. Policies will have significant environmental consequences: when using ReCiPe2008, we observe a decrease of global warming, fossil depletion, acidification, ozone depletion, and photochemical ozone formation and an increase of metal depletion, ionizing radiations, marine eutrophication, and particulate matter formation. The study clearly shows that the extrapolation of LCA results for the circulating fleet at national scale following the introduction of the policies from the LCAs of single vehicles by simple up-scaling (using hypothetical deployment scenarios) would be flawed. The inventory has to be directly conducted at full scale and to this aim, ABM is indeed a promising approach, as it allows identifying and quantifying emerging effects while modeling the Life Cycle Inventory of vehicles at microscale through the concept of agents.

Electricity Market Games: How Agent-Based Modeling Can Help under High Penetrations of Variable Generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gallo, Giulia

Integrating increasingly high levels of variable generation in U.S. electricity markets requires addressing not only power system and grid modeling challenges but also an understanding of how market participants react and adapt to them. Key elements of current and future wholesale power markets can be modeled using an agent-based approach, which may prove to be a useful paradigm for researchers studying and planning for power systems of the future.

Using the Integration of Discrete Event and Agent-Based Simulation to Enhance Outpatient Service Quality in an Orthopedic Department.

PubMed

Kittipittayakorn, Cholada; Ying, Kuo-Ching

2016-01-01

Many hospitals are currently paying more attention to patient satisfaction since it is an important service quality index. Many Asian countries' healthcare systems have a mixed-type registration, accepting both walk-in patients and scheduled patients. This complex registration system causes a long patient waiting time in outpatient clinics. Different approaches have been proposed to reduce the waiting time. This study uses the integration of discrete event simulation (DES) and agent-based simulation (ABS) to improve patient waiting time and is the first attempt to apply this approach to solve this key problem faced by orthopedic departments. From the data collected, patient behaviors are modeled and incorporated into a massive agent-based simulation. The proposed approach is an aid for analyzing and modifying orthopedic department processes, allows us to consider far more details, and provides more reliable results. After applying the proposed approach, the total waiting time of the orthopedic department fell from 1246.39 minutes to 847.21 minutes. Thus, using the correct simulation model significantly reduces patient waiting time in an orthopedic department.

Using the Integration of Discrete Event and Agent-Based Simulation to Enhance Outpatient Service Quality in an Orthopedic Department

PubMed Central

Kittipittayakorn, Cholada

2016-01-01

Many hospitals are currently paying more attention to patient satisfaction since it is an important service quality index. Many Asian countries' healthcare systems have a mixed-type registration, accepting both walk-in patients and scheduled patients. This complex registration system causes a long patient waiting time in outpatient clinics. Different approaches have been proposed to reduce the waiting time. This study uses the integration of discrete event simulation (DES) and agent-based simulation (ABS) to improve patient waiting time and is the first attempt to apply this approach to solve this key problem faced by orthopedic departments. From the data collected, patient behaviors are modeled and incorporated into a massive agent-based simulation. The proposed approach is an aid for analyzing and modifying orthopedic department processes, allows us to consider far more details, and provides more reliable results. After applying the proposed approach, the total waiting time of the orthopedic department fell from 1246.39 minutes to 847.21 minutes. Thus, using the correct simulation model significantly reduces patient waiting time in an orthopedic department. PMID:27195606

Combining Computational Fluid Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling: A New Approach to Evacuation Planning

PubMed Central

Epstein, Joshua M.; Pankajakshan, Ramesh; Hammond, Ross A.

2011-01-01

We introduce a novel hybrid of two fields—Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)—as a powerful new technique for urban evacuation planning. CFD is a predominant technique for modeling airborne transport of contaminants, while ABM is a powerful approach for modeling social dynamics in populations of adaptive individuals. The hybrid CFD-ABM method is capable of simulating how large, spatially-distributed populations might respond to a physically realistic contaminant plume. We demonstrate the overall feasibility of CFD-ABM evacuation design, using the case of a hypothetical aerosol release in Los Angeles to explore potential effectiveness of various policy regimes. We conclude by arguing that this new approach can be powerfully applied to arbitrary population centers, offering an unprecedented preparedness and catastrophic event response tool. PMID:21687788

AGENT-BASED MODELING OF INDUSTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

The objectives of this research are to investigate behavioral and organizational questions associated with environmental regulation of firms, and to test specifically whether a bottom-up approach that highlights principal-agent problems offers new insights and empirical validi...

Integrated PK-PD and agent-based modeling in oncology.

PubMed

Wang, Zhihui; Butner, Joseph D; Cristini, Vittorio; Deisboeck, Thomas S

2015-04-01

Mathematical modeling has become a valuable tool that strives to complement conventional biomedical research modalities in order to predict experimental outcome, generate new medical hypotheses, and optimize clinical therapies. Two specific approaches, pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) modeling, and agent-based modeling (ABM), have been widely applied in cancer research. While they have made important contributions on their own (e.g., PK-PD in examining chemotherapy drug efficacy and resistance, and ABM in describing and predicting tumor growth and metastasis), only a few groups have started to combine both approaches together in an effort to gain more insights into the details of drug dynamics and the resulting impact on tumor growth. In this review, we focus our discussion on some of the most recent modeling studies building on a combined PK-PD and ABM approach that have generated experimentally testable hypotheses. Some future directions are also discussed.

Integrated PK-PD and Agent-Based Modeling in Oncology

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhihui; Butner, Joseph D.; Cristini, Vittorio

2016-01-01

Mathematical modeling has become a valuable tool that strives to complement conventional biomedical research modalities in order to predict experimental outcome, generate new medical hypotheses, and optimize clinical therapies. Two specific approaches, pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) modeling, and agent-based modeling (ABM), have been widely applied in cancer research. While they have made important contributions on their own (e.g., PK-PD in examining chemotherapy drug efficacy and resistance, and ABM in describing and predicting tumor growth and metastasis), only a few groups have started to combine both approaches together in an effort to gain more insights into the details of drug dynamics and the resulting impact on tumor growth. In this review, we focus our discussion on some of the most recent modeling studies building on a combined PK-PD and ABM approach that have generated experimentally testable hypotheses. Some future directions are also discussed. PMID:25588379

Modeling the Population Dynamics of Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria:. AN Agent-Based Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, James T.; Walshe, Ray; Devocelle, Marc

The response of bacterial populations to antibiotic treatment is often a function of a diverse range of interacting factors. In order to develop strategies to minimize the spread of antibiotic resistance in pathogenic bacteria, a sound theoretical understanding of the systems of interactions taking place within a colony must be developed. The agent-based approach to modeling bacterial populations is a useful tool for relating data obtained at the molecular and cellular level with the overall population dynamics. Here we demonstrate an agent-based model, called Micro-Gen, which has been developed to simulate the growth and development of bacterial colonies in culture. The model also incorporates biochemical rules and parameters describing the kinetic interactions of bacterial cells with antibiotic molecules. Simulations were carried out to replicate the development of methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) colonies growing in the presence of antibiotics. The model was explored to see how the properties of the system emerge from the interactions of the individual bacterial agents in order to achieve a better mechanistic understanding of the population dynamics taking place. Micro-Gen provides a good theoretical framework for investigating the effects of local environmental conditions and cellular properties on the response of bacterial populations to antibiotic exposure in the context of a simulated environment.

Agent-based model to rural urban migration analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silveira, Jaylson J.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

2006-05-01

In this paper, we analyze the rural-urban migration phenomenon as it is usually observed in economies which are in the early stages of industrialization. The analysis is conducted by means of a statistical mechanics approach which builds a computational agent-based model. Agents are placed on a lattice and the connections among them are described via an Ising-like model. Simulations on this computational model show some emergent properties that are common in developing economies, such as a transitional dynamics characterized by continuous growth of urban population, followed by the equalization of expected wages between rural and urban sectors (Harris-Todaro equilibrium condition), urban concentration and increasing of per capita income.

An "age"-structured model of hematopoietic stem cell organization with application to chronic myeloid leukemia.

PubMed

Roeder, Ingo; Herberg, Maria; Horn, Matthias

2009-04-01

Previously, we have modeled hematopoietic stem cell organization by a stochastic, single cell-based approach. Applications to different experimental systems demonstrated that this model consistently explains a broad variety of in vivo and in vitro data. A major advantage of the agent-based model (ABM) is the representation of heterogeneity within the hematopoietic stem cell population. However, this advantage comes at the price of time-consuming simulations if the systems become large. One example in this respect is the modeling of disease and treatment dynamics in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), where the realistic number of individual cells to be considered exceeds 10(6). To overcome this deficiency, without losing the representation of the inherent heterogeneity of the stem cell population, we here propose to approximate the ABM by a system of partial differential equations (PDEs). The major benefit of such an approach is its independence from the size of the system. Although this mean field approach includes a number of simplifying assumptions compared to the ABM, it retains the key structure of the model including the "age"-structure of stem cells. We show that the PDE model qualitatively and quantitatively reproduces the results of the agent-based approach.

Mathematical modeling of malaria infection with innate and adaptive immunity in individuals and agent-based communities.

PubMed

Gurarie, David; Karl, Stephan; Zimmerman, Peter A; King, Charles H; St Pierre, Timothy G; Davis, Timothy M E

2012-01-01

Agent-based modeling of Plasmodium falciparum infection offers an attractive alternative to the conventional Ross-Macdonald methodology, as it allows simulation of heterogeneous communities subjected to realistic transmission (inoculation patterns). We developed a new, agent based model that accounts for the essential in-host processes: parasite replication and its regulation by innate and adaptive immunity. The model also incorporates a simplified version of antigenic variation by Plasmodium falciparum. We calibrated the model using data from malaria-therapy (MT) studies, and developed a novel calibration procedure that accounts for a deterministic and a pseudo-random component in the observed parasite density patterns. Using the parasite density patterns of 122 MT patients, we generated a large number of calibrated parameters. The resulting data set served as a basis for constructing and simulating heterogeneous agent-based (AB) communities of MT-like hosts. We conducted several numerical experiments subjecting AB communities to realistic inoculation patterns reported from previous field studies, and compared the model output to the observed malaria prevalence in the field. There was overall consistency, supporting the potential of this agent-based methodology to represent transmission in realistic communities. Our approach represents a novel, convenient and versatile method to model Plasmodium falciparum infection.

Consensus pursuit of heterogeneous multi-agent systems under a directed acyclic graph

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Jing; Guan, Xin-Ping; Luo, Xiao-Yuan

2011-04-01

This paper is concerned with the cooperative target pursuit problem by multiple agents based on directed acyclic graph. The target appears at a random location and moves only when sensed by the agents, and agents will pursue the target once they detect its existence. Since the ability of each agent may be different, we consider the heterogeneous multi-agent systems. According to the topology of the multi-agent systems, a novel consensus-based control law is proposed, where the target and agents are modeled as a leader and followers, respectively. Based on Mason's rule and signal flow graph analysis, the convergence conditions are provided to show that the agents can catch the target in a finite time. Finally, simulation studies are provided to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Knowledge Ecology for Conceptual Growth: Teachers as Active Agents in Developing a Pluriliteracies Approach to Teaching for Learning (PTL)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coyle, Do; Halbach, Ana; Meyer, Oliver; Schuck, Kevin

2018-01-01

This article explores how a group of educators and researchers enacted an inclusive process of conceptual growth involving teachers and teacher educators as active agents, knowledge builders and meaning-makers in the development of a Pluriliteracies approach to Teaching for Learning (PTL). The evolution of a working model based on five emergent…

An Agent-Based Model of Farmer Decision Making in Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selby, Philip; Medellin-Azuara, Josue; Harou, Julien; Klassert, Christian; Yoon, Jim

2016-04-01

We describe an agent based hydro-economic model of groundwater irrigated agriculture in the Jordan Highlands. The model employs a Multi-Agent-Simulation (MAS) framework and is designed to evaluate direct and indirect outcomes of climate change scenarios and policy interventions on farmer decision making, including annual land use, groundwater use for irrigation, and water sales to a water tanker market. Land use and water use decisions are simulated for groups of farms grouped by location and their behavioural and economic similarities. Decreasing groundwater levels, and the associated increase in pumping costs, are important drivers for change within Jordan'S agricultural sector. We describe how this is considered by coupling of agricultural and groundwater models. The agricultural production model employs Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP), a method for calibrating agricultural production functions to observed planted areas. PMP has successfully been used with disaggregate models for policy analysis. We adapt the PMP approach to allow explicit evaluation of the impact of pumping costs, groundwater purchase fees and a water tanker market. The work demonstrates the applicability of agent-based agricultural decision making assessment in the Jordan Highlands and its integration with agricultural model calibration methods. The proposed approach is designed and implemented with software such that it could be used to evaluate a variety of physical and human influences on decision making in agricultural water management.

Multiagent data warehousing and multiagent data mining for cerebrum/cerebellum modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wen-Ran

2002-03-01

An algorithm named Neighbor-Miner is outlined for multiagent data warehousing and multiagent data mining. The algorithm is defined in an evolving dynamic environment with autonomous or semiautonomous agents. Instead of mining frequent itemsets from customer transactions, the new algorithm discovers new agents and mining agent associations in first-order logic from agent attributes and actions. While the Apriori algorithm uses frequency as a priory threshold, the new algorithm uses agent similarity as priory knowledge. The concept of agent similarity leads to the notions of agent cuboid, orthogonal multiagent data warehousing (MADWH), and multiagent data mining (MADM). Based on agent similarities and action similarities, Neighbor-Miner is proposed and illustrated in a MADWH/MADM approach to cerebrum/cerebellum modeling. It is shown that (1) semiautonomous neurofuzzy agents can be identified for uniped locomotion and gymnastic training based on attribute relevance analysis; (2) new agents can be discovered and agent cuboids can be dynamically constructed in an orthogonal MADWH, which resembles an evolving cerebrum/cerebellum system; and (3) dynamic motion laws can be discovered as association rules in first order logic. Although examples in legged robot gymnastics are used to illustrate the basic ideas, the new approach is generally suitable for a broad category of data mining tasks where knowledge can be discovered collectively by a set of agents from a geographically or geometrically distributed but relevant environment, especially in scientific and engineering data environments.

Geometry of behavioral spaces: A computational approach to analysis and understanding of agent based models and agent behaviors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cenek, Martin; Dahl, Spencer K.

2016-11-01

Systems with non-linear dynamics frequently exhibit emergent system behavior, which is important to find and specify rigorously to understand the nature of the modeled phenomena. Through this analysis, it is possible to characterize phenomena such as how systems assemble or dissipate and what behaviors lead to specific final system configurations. Agent Based Modeling (ABM) is one of the modeling techniques used to study the interaction dynamics between a system's agents and its environment. Although the methodology of ABM construction is well understood and practiced, there are no computational, statistically rigorous, comprehensive tools to evaluate an ABM's execution. Often, a human has to observe an ABM's execution in order to analyze how the ABM functions, identify the emergent processes in the agent's behavior, or study a parameter's effect on the system-wide behavior. This paper introduces a new statistically based framework to automatically analyze agents' behavior, identify common system-wide patterns, and record the probability of agents changing their behavior from one pattern of behavior to another. We use network based techniques to analyze the landscape of common behaviors in an ABM's execution. Finally, we test the proposed framework with a series of experiments featuring increasingly emergent behavior. The proposed framework will allow computational comparison of ABM executions, exploration of a model's parameter configuration space, and identification of the behavioral building blocks in a model's dynamics.

Geometry of behavioral spaces: A computational approach to analysis and understanding of agent based models and agent behaviors.

PubMed

Cenek, Martin; Dahl, Spencer K

2016-11-01

Systems with non-linear dynamics frequently exhibit emergent system behavior, which is important to find and specify rigorously to understand the nature of the modeled phenomena. Through this analysis, it is possible to characterize phenomena such as how systems assemble or dissipate and what behaviors lead to specific final system configurations. Agent Based Modeling (ABM) is one of the modeling techniques used to study the interaction dynamics between a system's agents and its environment. Although the methodology of ABM construction is well understood and practiced, there are no computational, statistically rigorous, comprehensive tools to evaluate an ABM's execution. Often, a human has to observe an ABM's execution in order to analyze how the ABM functions, identify the emergent processes in the agent's behavior, or study a parameter's effect on the system-wide behavior. This paper introduces a new statistically based framework to automatically analyze agents' behavior, identify common system-wide patterns, and record the probability of agents changing their behavior from one pattern of behavior to another. We use network based techniques to analyze the landscape of common behaviors in an ABM's execution. Finally, we test the proposed framework with a series of experiments featuring increasingly emergent behavior. The proposed framework will allow computational comparison of ABM executions, exploration of a model's parameter configuration space, and identification of the behavioral building blocks in a model's dynamics.

Integrating macro and micro scale approaches in the agent-based modeling of residential dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saeedi, Sara

2018-06-01

With the advancement of computational modeling and simulation (M&S) methods as well as data collection technologies, urban dynamics modeling substantially improved over the last several decades. The complex urban dynamics processes are most effectively modeled not at the macro-scale, but following a bottom-up approach, by simulating the decisions of individual entities, or residents. Agent-based modeling (ABM) provides the key to a dynamic M&S framework that is able to integrate socioeconomic with environmental models, and to operate at both micro and macro geographical scales. In this study, a multi-agent system is proposed to simulate residential dynamics by considering spatiotemporal land use changes. In the proposed ABM, macro-scale land use change prediction is modeled by Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and deployed as the agent environment and micro-scale residential dynamics behaviors autonomously implemented by household agents. These two levels of simulation interacted and jointly promoted urbanization process in an urban area of Tehran city in Iran. The model simulates the behavior of individual households in finding ideal locations to dwell. The household agents are divided into three main groups based on their income rank and they are further classified into different categories based on a number of attributes. These attributes determine the households' preferences for finding new dwellings and change with time. The ABM environment is represented by a land-use map in which the properties of the land parcels change dynamically over the simulation time. The outputs of this model are a set of maps showing the pattern of different groups of households in the city. These patterns can be used by city planners to find optimum locations for building new residential units or adding new services to the city. The simulation results show that combining macro- and micro-level simulation can give full play to the potential of the ABM to understand the driving mechanism of urbanization and provide decision-making support for urban management.

Modelling brain emergent behaviours through coevolution of neural agents.

PubMed

Maniadakis, Michail; Trahanias, Panos

2006-06-01

Recently, many research efforts focus on modelling partial brain areas with the long-term goal to support cognitive abilities of artificial organisms. Existing models usually suffer from heterogeneity, which constitutes their integration very difficult. The present work introduces a computational framework to address brain modelling tasks, emphasizing on the integrative performance of substructures. Moreover, implemented models are embedded in a robotic platform to support its behavioural capabilities. We follow an agent-based approach in the design of substructures to support the autonomy of partial brain structures. Agents are formulated to allow the emergence of a desired behaviour after a certain amount of interaction with the environment. An appropriate collaborative coevolutionary algorithm, able to emphasize both the speciality of brain areas and their cooperative performance, is employed to support design specification of agent structures. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is illustrated through the implementation of computational models for motor cortex and hippocampus, which are successfully tested on a simulated mobile robot.

Issues of Dynamic Coalition Formation Among Rational Agents

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-04-01

approaches of forming stable coalitions among rational agents. Issues and problems of dynamic coalition environments are discussed in section 3 while...2.2. 2.1.2 Coalition Algorithm, Coalition Formation Environment and Model Rational agents which are involved in a co-operative game (A,v) are...publicly available simulation environment for coalition formation among rational information agents based on selected classic coalition theories is, for

Contract Monitoring in Agent-Based Systems: Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodík, Jiří; Vokřínek, Jiří; Jakob, Michal

Monitoring of fulfilment of obligations defined by electronic contracts in distributed domains is presented in this paper. A two-level model of contract-based systems and the types of observations needed for contract monitoring are introduced. The observations (inter-agent communication and agents’ actions) are collected and processed by the contract observation and analysis pipeline. The presented approach has been utilized in a multi-agent system for electronic contracting in a modular certification testing domain.

Electricity Market Manipulation: How Behavioral Modeling Can Help Market Design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gallo, Giulia

The question of how to best design electricity markets to integrate variable and uncertain renewable energy resources is becoming increasingly important as more renewable energy is added to electric power systems. Current markets were designed based on a set of assumptions that are not always valid in scenarios of high penetrations of renewables. In a future where renewables might have a larger impact on market mechanisms as well as financial outcomes, there is a need for modeling tools and power system modeling software that can provide policy makers and industry actors with more realistic representations of wholesale markets. One optionmore » includes using agent-based modeling frameworks. This paper discusses how key elements of current and future wholesale power markets can be modeled using an agent-based approach and how this approach may become a useful paradigm that researchers can employ when studying and planning for power systems of the future.« less

A Multi-Agent Approach to the Simulation of Robotized Manufacturing Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foit, K.; Gwiazda, A.; Banaś, W.

2016-08-01

The recent years of eventful industry development, brought many competing products, addressed to the same market segment. The shortening of a development cycle became a necessity if the company would like to be competitive. Because of switching to the Intelligent Manufacturing model the industry search for new scheduling algorithms, while the traditional ones do not meet the current requirements. The agent-based approach has been considered by many researchers as an important way of evolution of modern manufacturing systems. Due to the properties of the multi-agent systems, this methodology is very helpful during creation of the model of production system, allowing depicting both processing and informational part. The complexity of such approach makes the analysis impossible without the computer assistance. Computer simulation still uses a mathematical model to recreate a real situation, but nowadays the 2D or 3D virtual environments or even virtual reality have been used for realistic illustration of the considered systems. This paper will focus on robotized manufacturing system and will present the one of possible approaches to the simulation of such systems. The selection of multi-agent approach is motivated by the flexibility of this solution that offers the modularity, robustness and autonomy.

Foundations of “new” social science: Institutional legitimacy from philosophy, complexity science, postmodernism, and agent-based modeling

PubMed Central

Henrickson, Leslie; McKelvey, Bill

2002-01-01

Since the death of positivism in the 1970s, philosophers have turned their attention to scientific realism, evolutionary epistemology, and the Semantic Conception of Theories. Building on these trends, Campbellian Realism allows social scientists to accept real-world phenomena as criterion variables against which theories may be tested without denying the reality of individual interpretation and social construction. The Semantic Conception reduces the importance of axioms, but reaffirms the role of models and experiments. Philosophers now see models as “autonomous agents” that exert independent influence on the development of a science, in addition to theory and data. The inappropriate molding effects of math models on social behavior modeling are noted. Complexity science offers a “new” normal science epistemology focusing on order creation by self-organizing heterogeneous agents and agent-based models. The more responsible core of postmodernism builds on the idea that agents operate in a constantly changing web of interconnections among other agents. The connectionist agent-based models of complexity science draw on the same conception of social ontology as do postmodernists. These recent developments combine to provide foundations for a “new” social science centered on formal modeling not requiring the mathematical assumptions of agent homogeneity and equilibrium conditions. They give this “new” social science legitimacy in scientific circles that current social science approaches lack. PMID:12011408

Computational Scientific Inquiry with Virtual Worlds and Agent-Based Models: New Ways of Doing Science to Learn Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jacobson, Michael J.; Taylor, Charlotte E.; Richards, Deborah

2016-01-01

In this paper, we propose computational scientific inquiry (CSI) as an innovative model for learning important scientific knowledge and new practices for "doing" science. This approach involves the use of a "game-like" virtual world for students to experience virtual biological fieldwork in conjunction with using an agent-based…

Modelling of robotic work cells using agent based-approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sękala, A.; Banaś, W.; Gwiazda, A.; Monica, Z.; Kost, G.; Hryniewicz, P.

2016-08-01

In the case of modern manufacturing systems the requirements, both according the scope and according characteristics of technical procedures are dynamically changing. This results in production system organization inability to keep up with changes in a market demand. Accordingly, there is a need for new design methods, characterized, on the one hand with a high efficiency and on the other with the adequate level of the generated organizational solutions. One of the tools that could be used for this purpose is the concept of agent systems. These systems are the tools of artificial intelligence. They allow assigning to agents the proper domains of procedures and knowledge so that they represent in a self-organizing system of an agent environment, components of a real system. The agent-based system for modelling robotic work cell should be designed taking into consideration many limitations considered with the characteristic of this production unit. It is possible to distinguish some grouped of structural components that constitute such a system. This confirms the structural complexity of a work cell as a specific production system. So it is necessary to develop agents depicting various aspects of the work cell structure. The main groups of agents that are used to model a robotic work cell should at least include next pattern representatives: machine tool agents, auxiliary equipment agents, robots agents, transport equipment agents, organizational agents as well as data and knowledge bases agents. In this way it is possible to create the holarchy of the agent-based system.

Material quality assessment of silk nanofibers based on swarm intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandoli Machado, Bruno; Nunes Gonçalves, Wesley; Martinez Bruno, Odemir

2013-02-01

In this paper, we propose a novel approach for texture analysis based on artificial crawler model. Our method assumes that each agent can interact with the environment and each other. The evolution process converges to an equilibrium state according to the set of rules. For each textured image, the feature vector is composed by signatures of the live agents curve at each time. Experimental results revealed that combining the minimum and maximum signatures into one increase the classification rate. In addition, we pioneer the use of autonomous agents for characterizing silk fibroin scaffolds. The results strongly suggest that our approach can be successfully employed for texture analysis.

Application of agent-based system for bioprocess description and process improvement.

PubMed

Gao, Ying; Kipling, Katie; Glassey, Jarka; Willis, Mark; Montague, Gary; Zhou, Yuhong; Titchener-Hooker, Nigel J

2010-01-01

Modeling plays an important role in bioprocess development for design and scale-up. Predictive models can also be used in biopharmaceutical manufacturing to assist decision-making either to maintain process consistency or to identify optimal operating conditions. To predict the whole bioprocess performance, the strong interactions present in a processing sequence must be adequately modeled. Traditionally, bioprocess modeling considers process units separately, which makes it difficult to capture the interactions between units. In this work, a systematic framework is developed to analyze the bioprocesses based on a whole process understanding and considering the interactions between process operations. An agent-based approach is adopted to provide a flexible infrastructure for the necessary integration of process models. This enables the prediction of overall process behavior, which can then be applied during process development or once manufacturing has commenced, in both cases leading to the capacity for fast evaluation of process improvement options. The multi-agent system comprises a process knowledge base, process models, and a group of functional agents. In this system, agent components co-operate with each other in performing their tasks. These include the description of the whole process behavior, evaluating process operating conditions, monitoring of the operating processes, predicting critical process performance, and providing guidance to decision-making when coping with process deviations. During process development, the system can be used to evaluate the design space for process operation. During manufacture, the system can be applied to identify abnormal process operation events and then to provide suggestions as to how best to cope with the deviations. In all cases, the function of the system is to ensure an efficient manufacturing process. The implementation of the agent-based approach is illustrated via selected application scenarios, which demonstrate how such a framework may enable the better integration of process operations by providing a plant-wide process description to facilitate process improvement. Copyright 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers

Efficient Allocation of Resources for Defense of Spatially Distributed Networks Using Agent-Based Simulation.

PubMed

Kroshl, William M; Sarkani, Shahram; Mazzuchi, Thomas A

2015-09-01

This article presents ongoing research that focuses on efficient allocation of defense resources to minimize the damage inflicted on a spatially distributed physical network such as a pipeline, water system, or power distribution system from an attack by an active adversary, recognizing the fundamental difference between preparing for natural disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes, or even accidental systems failures and the problem of allocating resources to defend against an opponent who is aware of, and anticipating, the defender's efforts to mitigate the threat. Our approach is to utilize a combination of integer programming and agent-based modeling to allocate the defensive resources. We conceptualize the problem as a Stackelberg "leader follower" game where the defender first places his assets to defend key areas of the network, and the attacker then seeks to inflict the maximum damage possible within the constraints of resources and network structure. The criticality of arcs in the network is estimated by a deterministic network interdiction formulation, which then informs an evolutionary agent-based simulation. The evolutionary agent-based simulation is used to determine the allocation of resources for attackers and defenders that results in evolutionary stable strategies, where actions by either side alone cannot increase its share of victories. We demonstrate these techniques on an example network, comparing the evolutionary agent-based results to a more traditional, probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) approach. Our results show that the agent-based approach results in a greater percentage of defender victories than does the PRA-based approach. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Application of a swarm-based approach for phase unwrapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da S. Maciel, Lucas; Albertazzi G., Armando, Jr.

2014-07-01

An algorithm for phase unwrapping based on swarm intelligence is proposed. The novel approach is based on the emergent behavior of swarms. This behavior is the result of the interactions between independent agents following a simple set of rules and is regarded as fast, flexible and robust. The rules here were designed with two purposes. Firstly, the collective behavior must result in a reliable map of the unwrapped phase. The unwrapping reliability was evaluated by each agent during run-time, based on the quality of the neighboring pixels. In addition, the rule set must result in a behavior that focuses on wrapped regions. Stigmergy and communication rules were implemented in order to enable each agent to seek less worked areas of the image. The agents were modeled as Finite-State Machines. Based on the availability of unwrappable pixels, each agent assumed a different state in order to better adapt itself to the surroundings. The implemented rule set was able to fulfill the requirements on reliability and focused unwrapping. The unwrapped phase map was comparable to those from established methods as the agents were able to reliably evaluate each pixel quality. Also, the unwrapping behavior, being observed in real time, was able to focus on workable areas as the agents communicated in order to find less traveled regions. The results were very positive for such a new approach to the phase unwrapping problem. Finally, the authors see great potential for future developments concerning the flexibility, robustness and processing times of the swarm-based algorithm.

Emergence of a snake-like structure in mobile distributed agents: an exploratory agent-based modeling approach.

PubMed

Niazi, Muaz A

2014-01-01

The body structure of snakes is composed of numerous natural components thereby making it resilient, flexible, adaptive, and dynamic. In contrast, current computer animations as well as physical implementations of snake-like autonomous structures are typically designed to use either a single or a relatively smaller number of components. As a result, not only these artificial structures are constrained by the dimensions of the constituent components but often also require relatively more computationally intensive algorithms to model and animate. Still, these animations often lack life-like resilience and adaptation. This paper presents a solution to the problem of modeling snake-like structures by proposing an agent-based, self-organizing algorithm resulting in an emergent and surprisingly resilient dynamic structure involving a minimal of interagent communication. Extensive simulation experiments demonstrate the effectiveness as well as resilience of the proposed approach. The ideas originating from the proposed algorithm can not only be used for developing self-organizing animations but can also have practical applications such as in the form of complex, autonomous, evolvable robots with self-organizing, mobile components with minimal individual computational capabilities. The work also demonstrates the utility of exploratory agent-based modeling (EABM) in the engineering of artificial life-like complex adaptive systems.

Emergence of a Snake-Like Structure in Mobile Distributed Agents: An Exploratory Agent-Based Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Niazi, Muaz A.

2014-01-01

The body structure of snakes is composed of numerous natural components thereby making it resilient, flexible, adaptive, and dynamic. In contrast, current computer animations as well as physical implementations of snake-like autonomous structures are typically designed to use either a single or a relatively smaller number of components. As a result, not only these artificial structures are constrained by the dimensions of the constituent components but often also require relatively more computationally intensive algorithms to model and animate. Still, these animations often lack life-like resilience and adaptation. This paper presents a solution to the problem of modeling snake-like structures by proposing an agent-based, self-organizing algorithm resulting in an emergent and surprisingly resilient dynamic structure involving a minimal of interagent communication. Extensive simulation experiments demonstrate the effectiveness as well as resilience of the proposed approach. The ideas originating from the proposed algorithm can not only be used for developing self-organizing animations but can also have practical applications such as in the form of complex, autonomous, evolvable robots with self-organizing, mobile components with minimal individual computational capabilities. The work also demonstrates the utility of exploratory agent-based modeling (EABM) in the engineering of artificial life-like complex adaptive systems. PMID:24701135

A Harris-Todaro Agent-Based Model to Rural-Urban Migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espíndola, Aquino L.; Silveira, Jaylson J.; Penna, T. J. P.

2006-09-01

The Harris-Todaro model of the rural-urban migration process is revisited under an agent-based approach. The migration of the workers is interpreted as a process of social learning by imitation, formalized by a computational model. By simulating this model, we observe a transitional dynamics with continuous growth of the urban fraction of overall population toward an equilibrium. Such an equilibrium is characterized by stabilization of rural-urban expected wages differential (generalized Harris-Todaro equilibrium condition), urban concentration and urban unemployment. These classic results obtained originally by Harris and Todaro are emergent properties of our model.

Word of Mouth : An Agent-based Approach to Predictability of Stock Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimokawa, Tetsuya; Misawa, Tadanobu; Watanabe, Kyoko

This paper addresses how communication processes among investors affect stock prices formation, especially emerging predictability of stock prices, in financial markets. An agent based model, called the word of mouth model, is introduced for analyzing the problem. This model provides a simple, but sufficiently versatile, description of informational diffusion process and is successful in making lucidly explanation for the predictability of small sized stocks, which is a stylized fact in financial markets but difficult to resolve by traditional models. Our model also provides a rigorous examination of the under reaction hypothesis to informational shocks.

Agent tracking: a psycho-historical theory of the identification of living and social agents.

PubMed

Bullot, Nicolas J

To explain agent-identification behaviours, universalist theories in the biological and cognitive sciences have posited mental mechanisms thought to be universal to all humans, such as agent detection and face recognition mechanisms. These universalist theories have paid little attention to how particular sociocultural or historical contexts interact with the psychobiological processes of agent-identification. In contrast to universalist theories, contextualist theories appeal to particular historical and sociocultural contexts for explaining agent-identification. Contextualist theories tend to adopt idiographic methods aimed at recording the heterogeneity of human behaviours across history, space, and cultures. Defenders of the universalist approach tend to criticise idiographic methods because such methods can lead to relativism or may lack generality. To overcome explanatory limitations of proposals that adopt either universalist or contextualist approaches in isolation, I propose a philosophical model that integrates contributions from both traditions: the psycho-historical theory of agent-identification. This theory investigates how the tracking processes that humans use for identifying agents interact with the unique socio-historical contexts that support agent-identification practices. In integrating hypotheses about the history of agents with psychological and epistemological principles regarding agent-identification, the theory can generate novel hypotheses regarding the distinction between recognition-based, heuristic-based, and explanation-based agent-identification.

Combining Human and Machine Intelligence to Derive Agents' Behavioral Rules for Groundwater Irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Y.; Quinn, C.; Cai, X.

2015-12-01

One major challenge of agent-based modeling is to derive agents' behavioral rules due to behavioral uncertainty and data scarcity. This study proposes a new approach to combine a data-driven modeling based on the directed information (i.e., machine intelligence) with expert domain knowledge (i.e., human intelligence) to derive the behavioral rules of agents considering behavioral uncertainty. A directed information graph algorithm is applied to identifying the causal relationships between agents' decisions (i.e., groundwater irrigation depth) and time-series of environmental, socio-economical and institutional factors. A case study is conducted for the High Plains aquifer hydrological observatory (HO) area, U.S. Preliminary results show that four factors, corn price (CP), underlying groundwater level (GWL), monthly mean temperature (T) and precipitation (P) have causal influences on agents' decisions on groundwater irrigation depth (GWID) to various extents. Based on the similarity of the directed information graph for each agent, five clusters of graphs are further identified to represent all the agents' behaviors in the study area as shown in Figure 1. Using these five representative graphs, agents' monthly optimal groundwater pumping rates are derived through the probabilistic inference. Such data-driven relationships and probabilistic quantifications are then coupled with a physically-based groundwater model to investigate the interactions between agents' pumping behaviors and the underlying groundwater system in the context of coupled human and natural systems.

Multi Sensor Fusion Using Fitness Adaptive Differential Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giri, Ritwik; Ghosh, Arnob; Chowdhury, Aritra; Das, Swagatam

The rising popularity of multi-source, multi-sensor networks supports real-life applications calls for an efficient and intelligent approach to information fusion. Traditional optimization techniques often fail to meet the demands. The evolutionary approach provides a valuable alternative due to its inherent parallel nature and its ability to deal with difficult problems. We present a new evolutionary approach based on a modified version of Differential Evolution (DE), called Fitness Adaptive Differential Evolution (FiADE). FiADE treats sensors in the network as distributed intelligent agents with various degrees of autonomy. Existing approaches based on intelligent agents cannot completely answer the question of how their agents could coordinate their decisions in a complex environment. The proposed approach is formulated to produce good result for the problems that are high-dimensional, highly nonlinear, and random. The proposed approach gives better result in case of optimal allocation of sensors. The performance of the proposed approach is compared with an evolutionary algorithm coordination generalized particle model (C-GPM).

Identification of novel antitubulin agents by using a virtual screening approach based on a 7-point pharmacophore model of the tubulin colchi-site.

PubMed

Massarotti, Alberto; Theeramunkong, Sewan; Mesenzani, Ornella; Caldarelli, Antonio; Genazzani, Armando A; Tron, Gian Cesare

2011-12-01

Tubulin inhibition represents an established target in the field of anticancer research, and over the last 20 years, an intensive search for new antimicrotubule agents has occurred. Indeed, in silico models have been presented that might aid the discovery of novel agents. Among these, a 7-point pharmacophore model has been recently proposed. As a formal proof of this model, we carried out a ligand-based virtual screening on the colchicine-binding site. In vitro testing demonstrated that two compounds displayed a cytotoxic profile on neuroblastoma cancer cells (SH-SY5H) and one had an antitubulinic profile. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Agent-Based Multicellular Modeling for Predictive Toxicology

EPA Science Inventory

Biological modeling is a rapidly growing field that has benefited significantly from recent technological advances, expanding traditional methods with greater computing power, parameter-determination algorithms, and the development of novel computational approaches to modeling bi...

Agent-based modeling of deforestation in southern Yucatán, Mexico, and reforestation in the Midwest United States

PubMed Central

Manson, Steven M.; Evans, Tom

2007-01-01

We combine mixed-methods research with integrated agent-based modeling to understand land change and economic decision making in the United States and Mexico. This work demonstrates how sustainability science benefits from combining integrated agent-based modeling (which blends methods from the social, ecological, and information sciences) and mixed-methods research (which interleaves multiple approaches ranging from qualitative field research to quantitative laboratory experiments and interpretation of remotely sensed imagery). We test assumptions of utility-maximizing behavior in household-level landscape management in south-central Indiana, linking parcel data, land cover derived from aerial photography, and findings from laboratory experiments. We examine the role of uncertainty and limited information, preferences, differential demographic attributes, and past experience and future time horizons. We also use evolutionary programming to represent bounded rationality in agriculturalist households in the southern Yucatán of Mexico. This approach captures realistic rule of thumb strategies while identifying social and environmental factors in a manner similar to econometric models. These case studies highlight the role of computational models of decision making in land-change contexts and advance our understanding of decision making in general. PMID:18093928

Behavioral Modeling Based on Probabilistic Finite Automata: An Empirical Study.

PubMed

Tîrnăucă, Cristina; Montaña, José L; Ontañón, Santiago; González, Avelino J; Pardo, Luis M

2016-06-24

Imagine an agent that performs tasks according to different strategies. The goal of Behavioral Recognition (BR) is to identify which of the available strategies is the one being used by the agent, by simply observing the agent's actions and the environmental conditions during a certain period of time. The goal of Behavioral Cloning (BC) is more ambitious. In this last case, the learner must be able to build a model of the behavior of the agent. In both settings, the only assumption is that the learner has access to a training set that contains instances of observed behavioral traces for each available strategy. This paper studies a machine learning approach based on Probabilistic Finite Automata (PFAs), capable of achieving both the recognition and cloning tasks. We evaluate the performance of PFAs in the context of a simulated learning environment (in this case, a virtual Roomba vacuum cleaner robot), and compare it with a collection of other machine learning approaches.

An Advanced Computational Approach to System of Systems Analysis & Architecting Using Agent-Based Behavioral Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-29

Assessor that is in the SoS agent. Figure 31. Fuzzy Assessor for the SoS Agent for Assessment of SoS Architecture «subsystem» Fuzzy Rules « datatype ...Affordability « datatype » Flexibility « datatype » Performance « datatype » Robustness Input Input Input Input « datatype » Architecture QualityOutput Fuzzy

Action understanding as inverse planning.

PubMed

Baker, Chris L; Saxe, Rebecca; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

2009-12-01

Humans are adept at inferring the mental states underlying other agents' actions, such as goals, beliefs, desires, emotions and other thoughts. We propose a computational framework based on Bayesian inverse planning for modeling human action understanding. The framework represents an intuitive theory of intentional agents' behavior based on the principle of rationality: the expectation that agents will plan approximately rationally to achieve their goals, given their beliefs about the world. The mental states that caused an agent's behavior are inferred by inverting this model of rational planning using Bayesian inference, integrating the likelihood of the observed actions with the prior over mental states. This approach formalizes in precise probabilistic terms the essence of previous qualitative approaches to action understanding based on an "intentional stance" [Dennett, D. C. (1987). The intentional stance. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press] or a "teleological stance" [Gergely, G., Nádasdy, Z., Csibra, G., & Biró, S. (1995). Taking the intentional stance at 12 months of age. Cognition, 56, 165-193]. In three psychophysical experiments using animated stimuli of agents moving in simple mazes, we assess how well different inverse planning models based on different goal priors can predict human goal inferences. The results provide quantitative evidence for an approximately rational inference mechanism in human goal inference within our simplified stimulus paradigm, and for the flexible nature of goal representations that human observers can adopt. We discuss the implications of our experimental results for human action understanding in real-world contexts, and suggest how our framework might be extended to capture other kinds of mental state inferences, such as inferences about beliefs, or inferring whether an entity is an intentional agent.

Application of Complex Adaptive Systems in Portfolio Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Su, Zheyuan

2017-01-01

Simulation-based methods are becoming a promising research tool in financial markets. A general Complex Adaptive System can be tailored to different application scenarios. Based on the current research, we built two models that would benefit portfolio management by utilizing Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) in Agent-based Modeling (ABM) approach.…

A Cellular High-Throughput Screening Approach for Therapeutic trans-Cleaving Ribozymes and RNAi against Arbitrary mRNA Disease Targets

PubMed Central

Yau, Edwin H.; Butler, Mark C.; Sullivan, Jack M.

2016-01-01

Major bottlenecks in development of therapeutic post transcriptional gene silencing (PTGS) agents (e.g. ribozymes, RNA interference, antisense) include the challenge of mapping rare accessible regions of the mRNA target that are open for annealing and cleavage, testing and optimization of agents in human cells to identify lead agents, testing for cellular toxicity, and preclinical evaluation in appropriate animal models of disease. Methods for rapid and reliable cellular testing of PTGS agents are needed to identify potent lead candidates for optimization. Our goal was to develop a means of rapid assessment of many RNA agents to identify a lead candidate for a given mRNA associated with a disease state. We developed a rapid human cell-based screening platform to test efficacy of hammerhead ribozyme (hhRz) or RNA interference (RNAi) constructs, using a model retinal degeneration target, human rod opsin (RHO) mRNA. The focus is on RNA Drug Discovery for diverse retinal degeneration targets. To validate the approach, candidate hhRzs were tested against NUH↓ cleavage sites (N=G,C,A,U; H=C,A,U) within the target mRNA of secreted alkaline phosphatase (SEAP), a model gene expression reporter, based upon in silico predictions of mRNA accessibility. HhRzs were embedded in a larger stable adenoviral VAI RNA scaffold for high cellular expression, cytoplasmic trafficking, and stability. Most hhRz expression plasmids exerted statistically significant knockdown of extracellular SEAP enzyme activity when readily assayed by a fluorescence enzyme assay intended for high throughput screening (HTS). Kinetics of PTGS knockdown of cellular targets is measureable in live cells with the SEAP reporter. The validated SEAP HTS platform was transposed to identify lead PTGS agents against a model hereditary retinal degeneration target, RHO mRNA. Two approaches were used to physically fuse the model retinal gene target mRNA to the SEAP reporter mRNA. The most expedient way to evaluate a large set of potential VAI-hhRz expression plasmids against diverse NUH↓ cleavage sites uses cultured human HEK293S cells stably expressing a dicistronic Target-IRES-SEAP target fusion mRNA. Broad utility of this rational RNA drug discovery approach is feasible for any ophthalmological disease-relevant mRNA targets and any disease mRNA targets in general. The approach will permit rank ordering of PTGS agents based on potency to identify a lead therapeutic compound for further optimization. PMID:27233447

A Unified Approach to Model-Based Planning and Execution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muscettola, Nicola; Dorais, Gregory A.; Fry, Chuck; Levinson, Richard; Plaunt, Christian; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Writing autonomous software is complex, requiring the coordination of functionally and technologically diverse software modules. System and mission engineers must rely on specialists familiar with the different software modules to translate requirements into application software. Also, each module often encodes the same requirement in different forms. The results are high costs and reduced reliability due to the difficulty of tracking discrepancies in these encodings. In this paper we describe a unified approach to planning and execution that we believe provides a unified representational and computational framework for an autonomous agent. We identify the four main components whose interplay provides the basis for the agent's autonomous behavior: the domain model, the plan database, the plan running module, and the planner modules. This representational and problem solving approach can be applied at all levels of the architecture of a complex agent, such as Remote Agent. In the rest of the paper we briefly describe the Remote Agent architecture. The new agent architecture proposed here aims at achieving the full Remote Agent functionality. We then give the fundamental ideas behind the new agent architecture and point out some implication of the structure of the architecture, mainly in the area of reactivity and interaction between reactive and deliberative decision making. We conclude with related work and current status.

Agent-based approach for generation of a money-centered star network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jae-Suk; Kwon, Okyu; Jung, Woo-Sung; Kim, In-mook

2008-09-01

The history of trade is a progression from a pure barter system. A medium of exchange emerges autonomously in the market, a position currently occupied by money. We investigate an agent-based computational economics model consisting of interacting agents considering distinguishable properties of commodities which represent salability. We also analyze the properties of the commodity network using a spanning tree. We find that the “storage fee” is more crucial than “demand” in determining which commodity is used as a medium of exchange.

Simulation Modeling of Resilience Assessment in Indonesian Fertiliser Industry Supply Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utami, I. D.; Holt, R. J.; McKay, A.

2018-01-01

Supply network resilience is a significant aspect in the performance of the Indonesian fertiliser industry. Decision makers use risk assessment and port management reports to evaluate the availability of infrastructure. An opportunity was identified to incorporate both types of data into an approach for the measurement of resilience. A framework, based on a synthesis of literature and interviews with industry practitioners, covering both social and technical factors is introduced. A simulation model was then built to allow managers to explore implications for resilience and predict levels of risk in different scenarios. Result of interview with respondens from Indonesian fertiliser industry indicated that the simulation model could be valuable in the assessment. This paper provides details of the simulation model for decision makers to explore levels of risk in supply networks. For practitioners, the model could be used by government to assess the current condition of supply networks in Indonesian industries. On the other hand, for academia, the approach provides a new application of agent-based models in research on supply network resilience and presents a real example of how agent-based modeling could be used as to support the assessment approach.

The role of educational trainings in the diffusion of smart metering platforms: An agent-based modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weron, Tomasz; Kowalska-Pyzalska, Anna; Weron, Rafał

2018-09-01

Using an agent-based modeling approach we examine the impact of educational programs and trainings on the diffusion of smart metering platforms (SMPs). We also investigate how social responses, like conformity or independence, mass-media advertising as well as opinion stability impact the transition from predecisional and preactional behavioral stages (opinion formation) to actional and postactional stages (decision-making) of individual electricity consumers. We find that mass-media advertising (i.e., a global external field) and educational trainings (i.e., a local external field) lead to similar, though not identical adoption rates. Secondly, that spatially concentrated 'group' trainings are never worse than randomly scattered ones, and for a certain range of parameters are significantly better. Finally, that by manipulating the time required by an agent to make a decision, e.g., through promotions, we can speed up or slow down the diffusion of SMPs.

Simulating an emergency department: the importance of modeling the interactions between physicians and delegates in a discrete event simulation.

PubMed

Lim, Morgan E; Worster, Andrew; Goeree, Ron; Tarride, Jean-Éric

2013-05-22

Computer simulation studies of the emergency department (ED) are often patient driven and consider the physician as a human resource whose primary activity is interacting directly with the patient. In many EDs, physicians supervise delegates such as residents, physician assistants and nurse practitioners each with different skill sets and levels of independence. The purpose of this study is to present an alternative approach where physicians and their delegates in the ED are modeled as interacting pseudo-agents in a discrete event simulation (DES) and to compare it with the traditional approach ignoring such interactions. The new approach models a hierarchy of heterogeneous interacting pseudo-agents in a DES, where pseudo-agents are entities with embedded decision logic. The pseudo-agents represent a physician and delegate, where the physician plays a senior role to the delegate (i.e. treats high acuity patients and acts as a consult for the delegate). A simple model without the complexity of the ED is first created in order to validate the building blocks (programming) used to create the pseudo-agents and their interaction (i.e. consultation). Following validation, the new approach is implemented in an ED model using data from an Ontario hospital. Outputs from this model are compared with outputs from the ED model without the interacting pseudo-agents. They are compared based on physician and delegate utilization, patient waiting time for treatment, and average length of stay. Additionally, we conduct sensitivity analyses on key parameters in the model. In the hospital ED model, comparisons between the approach with interaction and without showed physician utilization increase from 23% to 41% and delegate utilization increase from 56% to 71%. Results show statistically significant mean time differences for low acuity patients between models. Interaction time between physician and delegate results in increased ED length of stay and longer waits for beds. This example shows the importance of accurately modeling physician relationships and the roles in which they treat patients. Neglecting these relationships could lead to inefficient resource allocation due to inaccurate estimates of physician and delegate time spent on patient related activities and length of stay.

Agents, Bayes, and Climatic Risks - a modular modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haas, A.; Jaeger, C.

2005-08-01

When insurance firms, energy companies, governments, NGOs, and other agents strive to manage climatic risks, it is by no way clear what the aggregate outcome should and will be. As a framework for investigating this subject, we present the LAGOM model family. It is based on modules depicting learning social agents. For managing climate risks, our agents use second order probabilities and update them by means of a Bayesian mechanism while differing in priors and risk aversion. The interactions between these modules and the aggregate outcomes of their actions are implemented using further modules. The software system is implemented as a series of parallel processes using the CIAMn approach. It is possible to couple modules irrespective of the language they are written in, the operating system under which they are run, and the physical location of the machine.

Stability of subsystem solutions in agent-based models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perc, Matjaž

2018-01-01

The fact that relatively simple entities, such as particles or neurons, or even ants or bees or humans, give rise to fascinatingly complex behaviour when interacting in large numbers is the hallmark of complex systems science. Agent-based models are frequently employed for modelling and obtaining a predictive understanding of complex systems. Since the sheer number of equations that describe the behaviour of an entire agent-based model often makes it impossible to solve such models exactly, Monte Carlo simulation methods must be used for the analysis. However, unlike pairwise interactions among particles that typically govern solid-state physics systems, interactions among agents that describe systems in biology, sociology or the humanities often involve group interactions, and they also involve a larger number of possible states even for the most simplified description of reality. This begets the question: when can we be certain that an observed simulation outcome of an agent-based model is actually stable and valid in the large system-size limit? The latter is key for the correct determination of phase transitions between different stable solutions, and for the understanding of the underlying microscopic processes that led to these phase transitions. We show that a satisfactory answer can only be obtained by means of a complete stability analysis of subsystem solutions. A subsystem solution can be formed by any subset of all possible agent states. The winner between two subsystem solutions can be determined by the average moving direction of the invasion front that separates them, yet it is crucial that the competing subsystem solutions are characterised by a proper composition and spatiotemporal structure before the competition starts. We use the spatial public goods game with diverse tolerance as an example, but the approach has relevance for a wide variety of agent-based models.

Mathematical modeling and computational prediction of cancer drug resistance.

PubMed

Sun, Xiaoqiang; Hu, Bin

2017-06-23

Diverse forms of resistance to anticancer drugs can lead to the failure of chemotherapy. Drug resistance is one of the most intractable issues for successfully treating cancer in current clinical practice. Effective clinical approaches that could counter drug resistance by restoring the sensitivity of tumors to the targeted agents are urgently needed. As numerous experimental results on resistance mechanisms have been obtained and a mass of high-throughput data has been accumulated, mathematical modeling and computational predictions using systematic and quantitative approaches have become increasingly important, as they can potentially provide deeper insights into resistance mechanisms, generate novel hypotheses or suggest promising treatment strategies for future testing. In this review, we first briefly summarize the current progress of experimentally revealed resistance mechanisms of targeted therapy, including genetic mechanisms, epigenetic mechanisms, posttranslational mechanisms, cellular mechanisms, microenvironmental mechanisms and pharmacokinetic mechanisms. Subsequently, we list several currently available databases and Web-based tools related to drug sensitivity and resistance. Then, we focus primarily on introducing some state-of-the-art computational methods used in drug resistance studies, including mechanism-based mathematical modeling approaches (e.g. molecular dynamics simulation, kinetic model of molecular networks, ordinary differential equation model of cellular dynamics, stochastic model, partial differential equation model, agent-based model, pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model, etc.) and data-driven prediction methods (e.g. omics data-based conventional screening approach for node biomarkers, static network approach for edge biomarkers and module biomarkers, dynamic network approach for dynamic network biomarkers and dynamic module network biomarkers, etc.). Finally, we discuss several further questions and future directions for the use of computational methods for studying drug resistance, including inferring drug-induced signaling networks, multiscale modeling, drug combinations and precision medicine. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Risk, individual differences, and environment: an Agent-Based Modeling approach to sexual risk-taking.

PubMed

Nagoski, Emily; Janssen, Erick; Lohrmann, David; Nichols, Eric

2012-08-01

Risky sexual behaviors, including the decision to have unprotected sex, result from interactions between individuals and their environment. The current study explored the use of Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)-a methodological approach in which computer-generated artificial societies simulate human sexual networks-to assess the influence of heterogeneity of sexual motivation on the risk of contracting HIV. The models successfully simulated some characteristics of human sexual systems, such as the relationship between individual differences in sexual motivation (sexual excitation and inhibition) and sexual risk, but failed to reproduce the scale-free distribution of number of partners observed in the real world. ABM has the potential to inform intervention strategies that target the interaction between an individual and his or her social environment.

Designing an Agent-Based Model for Childhood Obesity Interventions: A Case Study of ChildObesity180.

PubMed

Hennessy, Erin; Ornstein, Joseph T; Economos, Christina D; Herzog, Julia Bloom; Lynskey, Vanessa; Coffield, Edward; Hammond, Ross A

2016-01-07

Complex systems modeling can provide useful insights when designing and anticipating the impact of public health interventions. We developed an agent-based, or individual-based, computation model (ABM) to aid in evaluating and refining implementation of behavior change interventions designed to increase physical activity and healthy eating and reduce unnecessary weight gain among school-aged children. The potential benefits of applying an ABM approach include estimating outcomes despite data gaps, anticipating impact among different populations or scenarios, and exploring how to expand or modify an intervention. The practical challenges inherent in implementing such an approach include data resources, data availability, and the skills and knowledge of ABM among the public health obesity intervention community. The aim of this article was to provide a step-by-step guide on how to develop an ABM to evaluate multifaceted interventions on childhood obesity prevention in multiple settings. We used data from 2 obesity prevention initiatives and public-use resources. The details and goals of the interventions, overview of the model design process, and generalizability of this approach for future interventions is discussed.

Agent-based modeling of the spread of influenza-like illness in an emergency department: a simulation study.

PubMed

Laskowski, Marek; Demianyk, Bryan C P; Witt, Julia; Mukhi, Shamir N; Friesen, Marcia R; McLeod, Robert D

2011-11-01

The objective of this paper was to develop an agent-based modeling framework in order to simulate the spread of influenza virus infection on a layout based on a representative hospital emergency department in Winnipeg, Canada. In doing so, the study complements mathematical modeling techniques for disease spread, as well as modeling applications focused on the spread of antibiotic-resistant nosocomial infections in hospitals. Twenty different emergency department scenarios were simulated, with further simulation of four infection control strategies. The agent-based modeling approach represents systems modeling, in which the emergency department was modeled as a collection of agents (patients and healthcare workers) and their individual characteristics, behaviors, and interactions. The framework was coded in C++ using Qt4 libraries running under the Linux operating system. A simple ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was used to analyze the data, in which the percentage of patients that became infected in one day within the simulation was the dependent variable. The results suggest that within the given instance context, patient-oriented infection control policies (alternate treatment streams, masking symptomatic patients) tend to have a larger effect than policies that target healthcare workers. The agent-based modeling framework is a flexible tool that can be made to reflect any given environment; it is also a decision support tool for practitioners and policymakers to assess the relative impact of infection control strategies. The framework illuminates scenarios worthy of further investigation, as well as counterintuitive findings.

A physical data model for fields and agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Jong, Kor; de Bakker, Merijn; Karssenberg, Derek

2016-04-01

Two approaches exist in simulation modeling: agent-based and field-based modeling. In agent-based (or individual-based) simulation modeling, the entities representing the system's state are represented by objects, which are bounded in space and time. Individual objects, like an animal, a house, or a more abstract entity like a country's economy, have properties representing their state. In an agent-based model this state is manipulated. In field-based modeling, the entities representing the system's state are represented by fields. Fields capture the state of a continuous property within a spatial extent, examples of which are elevation, atmospheric pressure, and water flow velocity. With respect to the technology used to create these models, the domains of agent-based and field-based modeling have often been separate worlds. In environmental modeling, widely used logical data models include feature data models for point, line and polygon objects, and the raster data model for fields. Simulation models are often either agent-based or field-based, even though the modeled system might contain both entities that are better represented by individuals and entities that are better represented by fields. We think that the reason for this dichotomy in kinds of models might be that the traditional object and field data models underlying those models are relatively low level. We have developed a higher level conceptual data model for representing both non-spatial and spatial objects, and spatial fields (De Bakker et al. 2016). Based on this conceptual data model we designed a logical and physical data model for representing many kinds of data, including the kinds used in earth system modeling (e.g. hydrological and ecological models). The goal of this work is to be able to create high level code and tools for the creation of models in which entities are representable by both objects and fields. Our conceptual data model is capable of representing the traditional feature data models and the raster data model, among many other data models. Our physical data model is capable of storing a first set of kinds of data, like omnipresent scalars, mobile spatio-temporal points and property values, and spatio-temporal rasters. With our poster we will provide an overview of the physical data model expressed in HDF5 and show examples of how it can be used to capture both object- and field-based information. References De Bakker, M, K. de Jong, D. Karssenberg. 2016. A conceptual data model and language for fields and agents. European Geosciences Union, EGU General Assembly, 2016, Vienna.

Reciprocity in computer-human interaction: source-based, norm-based, and affect-based explanations.

PubMed

Lee, Seungcheol Austin; Liang, Yuhua Jake

2015-04-01

Individuals often apply social rules when they interact with computers, and this is known as the Computers Are Social Actors (CASA) effect. Following previous work, one approach to understand the mechanism responsible for CASA is to utilize computer agents and have the agents attempt to gain human compliance (e.g., completing a pattern recognition task). The current study focuses on three key factors frequently cited to influence traditional notions of compliance: evaluations toward the source (competence and warmth), normative influence (reciprocity), and affective influence (mood). Structural equation modeling assessed the effects of these factors on human compliance with computer request. The final model shows that norm-based influence (reciprocity) increased the likelihood of compliance, while evaluations toward the computer agent did not significantly influence compliance.

A Framework for Model-Based Inquiry through Agent-Based Programming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xiang, Lin; Passmore, Cynthia

2015-01-01

There has been increased recognition in the past decades that model-based inquiry (MBI) is a promising approach for cultivating deep understandings by helping students unite phenomena and underlying mechanisms. Although multiple technology tools have been used to improve the effectiveness of MBI, there are not enough detailed examinations of how…

Investigating accident causation through information network modelling.

PubMed

Griffin, T G C; Young, M S; Stanton, N A

2010-02-01

Management of risk in complex domains such as aviation relies heavily on post-event investigations, requiring complex approaches to fully understand the integration of multi-causal, multi-agent and multi-linear accident sequences. The Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork methodology (EAST; Stanton et al. 2008) offers such an approach based on network models. In this paper, we apply EAST to a well-known aviation accident case study, highlighting communication between agents as a central theme and investigating the potential for finding agents who were key to the accident. Ultimately, this work aims to develop a new model based on distributed situation awareness (DSA) to demonstrate that the risk inherent in a complex system is dependent on the information flowing within it. By identifying key agents and information elements, we can propose proactive design strategies to optimize the flow of information and help work towards avoiding aviation accidents. Statement of Relevance: This paper introduces a novel application of an holistic methodology for understanding aviation accidents. Furthermore, it introduces an ongoing project developing a nonlinear and prospective method that centralises distributed situation awareness and communication as themes. The relevance of findings are discussed in the context of current ergonomic and aviation issues of design, training and human-system interaction.

Intelligent judgements over health risks in a spatial agent-based model.

PubMed

Abdulkareem, Shaheen A; Augustijn, Ellen-Wien; Mustafa, Yaseen T; Filatova, Tatiana

2018-03-20

Millions of people worldwide are exposed to deadly infectious diseases on a regular basis. Breaking news of the Zika outbreak for instance, made it to the main media titles internationally. Perceiving disease risks motivate people to adapt their behavior toward a safer and more protective lifestyle. Computational science is instrumental in exploring patterns of disease spread emerging from many individual decisions and interactions among agents and their environment by means of agent-based models. Yet, current disease models rarely consider simulating dynamics in risk perception and its impact on the adaptive protective behavior. Social sciences offer insights into individual risk perception and corresponding protective actions, while machine learning provides algorithms and methods to capture these learning processes. This article presents an innovative approach to extend agent-based disease models by capturing behavioral aspects of decision-making in a risky context using machine learning techniques. We illustrate it with a case of cholera in Kumasi, Ghana, accounting for spatial and social risk factors that affect intelligent behavior and corresponding disease incidents. The results of computational experiments comparing intelligent with zero-intelligent representations of agents in a spatial disease agent-based model are discussed. We present a spatial disease agent-based model (ABM) with agents' behavior grounded in Protection Motivation Theory. Spatial and temporal patterns of disease diffusion among zero-intelligent agents are compared to those produced by a population of intelligent agents. Two Bayesian Networks (BNs) designed and coded using R and are further integrated with the NetLogo-based Cholera ABM. The first is a one-tier BN1 (only risk perception), the second is a two-tier BN2 (risk and coping behavior). We run three experiments (zero-intelligent agents, BN1 intelligence and BN2 intelligence) and report the results per experiment in terms of several macro metrics of interest: an epidemic curve, a risk perception curve, and a distribution of different types of coping strategies over time. Our results emphasize the importance of integrating behavioral aspects of decision making under risk into spatial disease ABMs using machine learning algorithms. This is especially relevant when studying cumulative impacts of behavioral changes and possible intervention strategies.

Learning Based Bidding Strategy for HVAC Systems in Double Auction Retail Energy Markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Yannan; Somani, Abhishek; Carroll, Thomas E.

In this paper, a bidding strategy is proposed using reinforcement learning for HVAC systems in a double auction market. The bidding strategy does not require a specific model-based representation of behavior, i.e., a functional form to translate indoor house temperatures into bid prices. The results from reinforcement learning based approach are compared with the HVAC bidding approach used in the AEP gridSMART® smart grid demonstration project and it is shown that the model-free (learning based) approach tracks well the results from the model-based behavior. Successful use of model-free approaches to represent device-level economic behavior may help develop similar approaches tomore » represent behavior of more complex devices or groups of diverse devices, such as in a building. Distributed control requires an understanding of decision making processes of intelligent agents so that appropriate mechanisms may be developed to control and coordinate their responses, and model-free approaches to represent behavior will be extremely useful in that quest.« less

Modeling the Information Age Combat Model: An Agent-Based Simulation of Network Centric Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deller, Sean; Rabadi, Ghaith A.; Bell, Michael I.; Bowling, Shannon R.; Tolk, Andreas

2010-01-01

The Information Age Combat Model (IACM) was introduced by Cares in 2005 to contribute to the development of an understanding of the influence of connectivity on force effectiveness that can eventually lead to quantitative prediction and guidelines for design and employment. The structure of the IACM makes it clear that the Perron-Frobenius Eigenvalue is a quantifiable metric with which to measure the organization of a networked force. The results of recent experiments presented in Deller, et aI., (2009) indicate that the value of the Perron-Frobenius Eigenvalue is a significant measurement of the performance of an Information Age combat force. This was accomplished through the innovative use of an agent-based simulation to model the IACM and represents an initial contribution towards a new generation of combat models that are net-centric instead of using the current platform-centric approach. This paper describes the intent, challenges, design, and initial results of this agent-based simulation model.

Can agent based models effectively reduce fisheries management implementation uncertainty?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drexler, M.

2016-02-01

Uncertainty is an inherent feature of fisheries management. Implementation uncertainty remains a challenge to quantify often due to unintended responses of users to management interventions. This problem will continue to plague both single species and ecosystem based fisheries management advice unless the mechanisms driving these behaviors are properly understood. Equilibrium models, where each actor in the system is treated as uniform and predictable, are not well suited to forecast the unintended behaviors of individual fishers. Alternatively, agent based models (AMBs) can simulate the behaviors of each individual actor driven by differing incentives and constraints. This study evaluated the feasibility of using AMBs to capture macro scale behaviors of the US West Coast Groundfish fleet. Agent behavior was specified at the vessel level. Agents made daily fishing decisions using knowledge of their own cost structure, catch history, and the histories of catch and quota markets. By adding only a relatively small number of incentives, the model was able to reproduce highly realistic macro patterns of expected outcomes in response to management policies (catch restrictions, MPAs, ITQs) while preserving vessel heterogeneity. These simulations indicate that agent based modeling approaches hold much promise for simulating fisher behaviors and reducing implementation uncertainty. Additional processes affecting behavior, informed by surveys, are continually being added to the fisher behavior model. Further coupling of the fisher behavior model to a spatial ecosystem model will provide a fully integrated social, ecological, and economic model capable of performing management strategy evaluations to properly consider implementation uncertainty in fisheries management.

Approaching neuropsychological tasks through adaptive neurorobots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gigliotta, Onofrio; Bartolomeo, Paolo; Miglino, Orazio

2015-04-01

Neuropsychological phenomena have been modelized mainly, by the mainstream approach, by attempting to reproduce their neural substrate whereas sensory-motor contingencies have attracted less attention. In this work, we introduce a simulator based on the evolutionary robotics platform Evorobot* in order to setting up in silico neuropsychological tasks. Moreover, in this study we trained artificial embodied neurorobotic agents equipped with a pan/tilt camera, provided with different neural and motor capabilities, to solve a well-known neuropsychological test: the cancellation task in which an individual is asked to cancel target stimuli surrounded by distractors. Results showed that embodied agents provided with additional motor capabilities (a zooming/attentional actuator) outperformed simple pan/tilt agents, even those equipped with more complex neural controllers and that the zooming ability is exploited to correctly categorising presented stimuli. We conclude that since the sole neural computational power cannot explain the (artificial) cognition which emerged throughout the adaptive process, such kind of modelling approach can be fruitful in neuropsychological modelling where the importance of having a body is often neglected.

Finding shared decisions in stakeholder networks: An agent-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Pira, Michela; Inturri, Giuseppe; Ignaccolo, Matteo; Pluchino, Alessandro; Rapisarda, Andrea

2017-01-01

We address the problem of a participatory decision-making process where a shared priority list of alternatives has to be obtained while avoiding inconsistent decisions. An agent-based model (ABM) is proposed to mimic this process in different social networks of stakeholders who interact according to an opinion dynamics model. Simulations' results show the efficacy of interaction in finding a transitive and, above all, shared decision. These findings are in agreement with real participation experiences regarding transport planning decisions and can give useful suggestions on how to plan an effective participation process for sustainable policy-making based on opinion consensus.

Identifying Interacting Genetic Variations by Fish-Swarm Logic Regression

PubMed Central

Yang, Aiyuan; Yan, Chunxia; Zhu, Feng; Zhao, Zhongmeng; Cao, Zhi

2013-01-01

Understanding associations between genotypes and complex traits is a fundamental problem in human genetics. A major open problem in mapping phenotypes is that of identifying a set of interacting genetic variants, which might contribute to complex traits. Logic regression (LR) is a powerful multivariant association tool. Several LR-based approaches have been successfully applied to different datasets. However, these approaches are not adequate with regard to accuracy and efficiency. In this paper, we propose a new LR-based approach, called fish-swarm logic regression (FSLR), which improves the logic regression process by incorporating swarm optimization. In our approach, a school of fish agents are conducted in parallel. Each fish agent holds a regression model, while the school searches for better models through various preset behaviors. A swarm algorithm improves the accuracy and the efficiency by speeding up the convergence and preventing it from dropping into local optimums. We apply our approach on a real screening dataset and a series of simulation scenarios. Compared to three existing LR-based approaches, our approach outperforms them by having lower type I and type II error rates, being able to identify more preset causal sites, and performing at faster speeds. PMID:23984382

Agents in bioinformatics, computational and systems biology.

PubMed

Merelli, Emanuela; Armano, Giuliano; Cannata, Nicola; Corradini, Flavio; d'Inverno, Mark; Doms, Andreas; Lord, Phillip; Martin, Andrew; Milanesi, Luciano; Möller, Steffen; Schroeder, Michael; Luck, Michael

2007-01-01

The adoption of agent technologies and multi-agent systems constitutes an emerging area in bioinformatics. In this article, we report on the activity of the Working Group on Agents in Bioinformatics (BIOAGENTS) founded during the first AgentLink III Technical Forum meeting on the 2nd of July, 2004, in Rome. The meeting provided an opportunity for seeding collaborations between the agent and bioinformatics communities to develop a different (agent-based) approach of computational frameworks both for data analysis and management in bioinformatics and for systems modelling and simulation in computational and systems biology. The collaborations gave rise to applications and integrated tools that we summarize and discuss in context of the state of the art in this area. We investigate on future challenges and argue that the field should still be explored from many perspectives ranging from bio-conceptual languages for agent-based simulation, to the definition of bio-ontology-based declarative languages to be used by information agents, and to the adoption of agents for computational grids.

Characterizing emergent properties of immunological systems with multi-cellular rule-based computational modeling.

PubMed

Chavali, Arvind K; Gianchandani, Erwin P; Tung, Kenneth S; Lawrence, Michael B; Peirce, Shayn M; Papin, Jason A

2008-12-01

The immune system is comprised of numerous components that interact with one another to give rise to phenotypic behaviors that are sometimes unexpected. Agent-based modeling (ABM) and cellular automata (CA) belong to a class of discrete mathematical approaches in which autonomous entities detect local information and act over time according to logical rules. The power of this approach lies in the emergence of behavior that arises from interactions between agents, which would otherwise be impossible to know a priori. Recent work exploring the immune system with ABM and CA has revealed novel insights into immunological processes. Here, we summarize these applications to immunology and, particularly, how ABM can help formulate hypotheses that might drive further experimental investigations of disease mechanisms.

An Advanced Computational Approach to System of Systems Analysis & Architecting Using Agent-Based Behavioral Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

System N Agent « datatype » SoS Architecture -Receives Capabilities1 -Provides Capabilities1 1 -Provides Capabilities1 1 -Provides Capabilities1 -Updates 1...fitness, or objective function. The structure of the SoS Agent is depicted in Figure 10. SoS Agent Architecture « datatype » Initial SoS...Architecture «subsystem» Fuzzy Inference Engine FAM « datatype » Affordability « datatype » Flexibility « datatype » Performance « datatype » Robustness Input Input

Agent-Based Models and Optimal Control in Biology: A Discrete Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

different parts of the human body to cure diseases such as hypertension, cancer, or heart disease. And we need to control microbes for the efficient...antelope herd interacts with an aggregated prey agent such as cheetahs or lions, the size of each may expand or contract accordingly). Of course, such

Brands as Intentional Agents Framework: How Perceived Intentions and Ability Can Map Brand Perception.

PubMed

Kervyn, Nicolas; Fiske, Susan T; Malone, Chris

2012-04-01

Building on the Stereotype Content Model, this paper introduces and tests the Brands as Intentional Agents Framework. A growing body of research suggests that consumers have relationships with brands that resemble relations between people. We propose that consumers perceive brands in the same way they perceive people. This approach allows us to explore how social perception theories and processes can predict brand purchase interest and loyalty. Brands as Intentional Agents Framework is based on a well-established social perception approach: the Stereotype Content Model. Two studies support the Brands as Intentional Agents Framework prediction that consumers assess a brand's perceived intentions and ability and that these perceptions elicit distinct emotions and drive differential brand behaviors. The research shows that human social interaction relationships translate to consumer-brand interactions in ways that are useful to inform brand positioning and brand communications.

Brands as Intentional Agents Framework: How Perceived Intentions and Ability Can Map Brand Perception

PubMed Central

Kervyn, Nicolas; Fiske, Susan T.; Malone, Chris

2013-01-01

Building on the Stereotype Content Model, this paper introduces and tests the Brands as Intentional Agents Framework. A growing body of research suggests that consumers have relationships with brands that resemble relations between people. We propose that consumers perceive brands in the same way they perceive people. This approach allows us to explore how social perception theories and processes can predict brand purchase interest and loyalty. Brands as Intentional Agents Framework is based on a well-established social perception approach: the Stereotype Content Model. Two studies support the Brands as Intentional Agents Framework prediction that consumers assess a brand’s perceived intentions and ability and that these perceptions elicit distinct emotions and drive differential brand behaviors. The research shows that human social interaction relationships translate to consumer-brand interactions in ways that are useful to inform brand positioning and brand communications. PMID:24403815

Negotiating on location, timing, duration, and participant in agent-mediated joint activity-travel scheduling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Huiye; Ronald, Nicole; Arentze, Theo A.; Timmermans, Harry J. P.

2013-10-01

Agent-based simulation has become an important modeling approach in activity-travel analysis. Social activities account for a large amount of travel and have an important effect on activity-travel scheduling. Participants in joint activities usually have various options regarding location, participants, and timing and take different approaches to make their decisions. In this context, joint activity participation requires negotiation among agents involved, so that conflicts among the agents can be addressed. Existing mechanisms do not fully provide a solution when utility functions of agents are nonlinear and non-monotonic. Considering activity-travel scheduling in time and space as an application, we propose a novel negotiation approach, which takes into account these properties, such as continuous and discrete issues, and nonlinear and non-monotonic utility functions, by defining a concession strategy and a search mechanism. The results of experiments show that agents having these properties can negotiate efficiently. Furthermore, the negotiation procedure affects individuals’ choices of location, timing, duration, and participants.

Deep Reinforcement Learning of Cell Movement in the Early Stage of C. elegans Embryogenesis.

PubMed

Wang, Zi; Wang, Dali; Li, Chengcheng; Xu, Yichi; Li, Husheng; Bao, Zhirong

2018-04-25

Cell movement in the early phase of C. elegans development is regulated by a highly complex process in which a set of rules and connections are formulated at distinct scales. Previous efforts have demonstrated that agent-based, multi-scale modeling systems can integrate physical and biological rules and provide new avenues to study developmental systems. However, the application of these systems to model cell movement is still challenging and requires a comprehensive understanding of regulatory networks at the right scales. Recent developments in deep learning and reinforcement learning provide an unprecedented opportunity to explore cell movement using 3D time-lapse microscopy images. We present a deep reinforcement learning approach within an agent-based modeling system to characterize cell movement in the embryonic development of C. elegans. Our modeling system captures the complexity of cell movement patterns in the embryo and overcomes the local optimization problem encountered by traditional rule-based, agent-based modeling that uses greedy algorithms. We tested our model with two real developmental processes: the anterior movement of the Cpaaa cell via intercalation and the rearrangement of the superficial left-right asymmetry. In the first case, the model results suggested that Cpaaa's intercalation is an active directional cell movement caused by the continuous effects from a longer distance (farther than the length of two adjacent cells), as opposed to a passive movement caused by neighbor cell movements. In the second case, a leader-follower mechanism well explained the collective cell movement pattern in the asymmetry rearrangement. These results showed that our approach to introduce deep reinforcement learning into agent-based modeling can test regulatory mechanisms by exploring cell migration paths in a reverse engineering perspective. This model opens new doors to explore the large datasets generated by live imaging. Source code is available at https://github.com/zwang84/drl4cellmovement. dwang7@utk.edu, baoz@mskcc.org. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Buses of Cuernavaca—an agent-based model for universal random matrix behavior minimizing mutual information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warchoł, Piotr

2018-06-01

The public transportation system of Cuernavaca, Mexico, exhibits random matrix theory statistics. In particular, the fluctuation of times between the arrival of buses on a given bus stop, follows the Wigner surmise for the Gaussian unitary ensemble. To model this, we propose an agent-based approach in which each bus driver tries to optimize his arrival time to the next stop with respect to an estimated arrival time of his predecessor. We choose a particular form of the associated utility function and recover the appropriate distribution in numerical experiments for a certain value of the only parameter of the model. We then investigate whether this value of the parameter is otherwise distinguished within an information theoretic approach and give numerical evidence that indeed it is associated with a minimum of averaged pairwise mutual information.

A review of agent-based modeling approach in the supply chain collaboration context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arvitrida, N. I.

2018-04-01

Collaboration is considered as the key aspect of supply chain management (SCM) success. This issue has been addressed by many studies in recent years, but there are still few research employs agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to study business partnerships in SCM. This paper reviews the use of ABM in modeling collaboration in supply chains and inform the scope of ABM application in the existing literature. The review reveals that ABM can be an effective tool to address various aspects in supply chain relationships, but its applications in SCM studies are still limited. Moreover, where ABM is applied in the SCM context, most of the studies focus on software architecture rather than analyzing the supply chain issues. This paper also provides insights to SCM researchers about the opportunity uses of ABM in studying complexity in supply chain collaboration.

An Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Determining Corn Stover Removal Rate and Transboundary Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, Jianbang; Langeveld, J. W. A.; Smith, C. T.

2014-02-01

Bioenergy production involves different agents with potentially different objectives, and an agent's decision often has transboundary impacts on other agents along the bioenergy value chain. Understanding and estimating the transboundary impacts is essential to portraying the interactions among the different agents and in the search for the optimal configuration of the bioenergy value chain. We develop an agent-based model to mimic the decision making by feedstock producers and feedstock-to-biofuel conversion plant operators and propose multipliers (i.e., ratios of economic values accruing to different segments and associated agents in the value chain) for assessing the transboundary impacts. Our approach is generic and thus applicable to a variety of bioenergy production systems at different sites and geographic scales. We apply it to the case of producing ethanol using corn stover in Iowa, USA. The results from the case study indicate that stover removal rate is site specific and varies considerably with soil type, as well as other factors, such as stover price and harvesting cost. In addition, ethanol production using corn stover in the study region would have strong positive ripple effects, with the values of multipliers varying with greenhouse gas price and national energy security premium. The relatively high multiplier values suggest that a large portion of the value associated with corn stover ethanol production would accrue to the downstream end of the value chain instead of stover producers.

Distributed, cooperating knowledge-based systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Truszkowski, Walt

1991-01-01

Some current research in the development and application of distributed, cooperating knowledge-based systems technology is addressed. The focus of the current research is the spacecraft ground operations environment. The underlying hypothesis is that, because of the increasing size, complexity, and cost of planned systems, conventional procedural approaches to the architecture of automated systems will give way to a more comprehensive knowledge-based approach. A hallmark of these future systems will be the integration of multiple knowledge-based agents which understand the operational goals of the system and cooperate with each other and the humans in the loop to attain the goals. The current work includes the development of a reference model for knowledge-base management, the development of a formal model of cooperating knowledge-based agents, the use of testbed for prototyping and evaluating various knowledge-based concepts, and beginning work on the establishment of an object-oriented model of an intelligent end-to-end (spacecraft to user) system. An introductory discussion of these activities is presented, the major concepts and principles being investigated are highlighted, and their potential use in other application domains is indicated.

Agent-based re-engineering of ErbB signaling: a modeling pipeline for integrative systems biology.

PubMed

Das, Arya A; Ajayakumar Darsana, T; Jacob, Elizabeth

2017-03-01

Experiments in systems biology are generally supported by a computational model which quantitatively estimates the parameters of the system by finding the best fit to the experiment. Mathematical models have proved to be successful in reverse engineering the system. The data generated is interpreted to understand the dynamics of the underlying phenomena. The question we have sought to answer is that - is it possible to use an agent-based approach to re-engineer a biological process, making use of the available knowledge from experimental and modelling efforts? Can the bottom-up approach benefit from the top-down exercise so as to create an integrated modelling formalism for systems biology? We propose a modelling pipeline that learns from the data given by reverse engineering, and uses it for re-engineering the system, to carry out in-silico experiments. A mathematical model that quantitatively predicts co-expression of EGFR-HER2 receptors in activation and trafficking has been taken for this study. The pipeline architecture takes cues from the population model that gives the rates of biochemical reactions, to formulate knowledge-based rules for the particle model. Agent-based simulations using these rules, support the existing facts on EGFR-HER2 dynamics. We conclude that, re-engineering models, built using the results of reverse engineering, opens up the possibility of harnessing the power pack of data which now lies scattered in literature. Virtual experiments could then become more realistic when empowered with the findings of empirical cell biology and modelling studies. Implemented on the Agent Modelling Framework developed in-house. C ++ code templates available in Supplementary material . liz.csir@gmail.com. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

A Novel Framework for Characterizing Exposure-Related ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Descriptions of where and how individuals spend their time are important for characterizing exposures to chemicals in consumer products and in indoor environments. Herein we create an agent-based model (ABM) that is able to simulate longitudinal patterns in behaviors. By basing our ABM upon a needs-based artificial intelligence (AI) system, we create agents that mimic human decisions on these exposure-relevant behaviors. In a case study of adults, we use the AI to predict the inter-individual variation in the start time and duration of four behaviors: sleeping, eating, commuting, and working. The results demonstrate that the ABM can capture both inter-individual variation and how decisions on one behavior can affect subsequent behaviors. Preset NERL's research on the use of agent based modeling in exposure assessments. To obtain feed back on the approach from the leading experts in the field.

Thermodynamic Investigation of the Interaction between Polymer and Gases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmood, Syed Hassan

This thesis investigates the interaction between blowing agents and polymer matrix. Existing theoretical model was further developed to accommodate the polymer and blowing agent under study. The obtained results are not only useful for the optimization of the plastic foam fabrication process but also provides a different approach to usage of blowing agents. A magnetic suspension balance and an in-house visualizing dilatometer were used to obtain the sorption of blowing agents in polymer melts under elevated temperature and pressure. The proposed theoretical approach based on the thermodynamic model of SS-EOS is applied to understand the interaction of blowing agents with the polymer melt and one another (in the case of blend blowing agent). An in-depth study of the interaction of a blend of CO2 and DME with PS was conducted. Experimental volume swelling of the blend/PS mixture was measured and compared to the theoretical volume swelling obtained via ternary based SS-EOS, insuring the models validity. The effect of plasticization due to dissolution of DME on the solubility of CO2 in PS was then investigated by utilizing the aforementioned model. It was noted that the dissolution of DME increased the concentration of CO2 in PS and lowering the saturation pressure needed to dissolved a certain amount of CO2 in PS melt. The phenomenon of retrograde vitrification in PMMA induced due dissolution of CO2 was investigated in light of the thermodynamic properties resulting from the interaction of polymer and blowing agent. Solubility and volume swelling were measured in the pressure and temperature ranges promoting vitrification phenomenon, with relation being established between the thermodynamic properties and the vitrification process. Foaming of PMMA was conducted at various temperature values to investigate the application of this phenomenon.

Multi-agent cooperation pursuit based on an extension of AALAADIN organisational model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souidi, Mohammed El Habib; Songhao, Piao; Guo, Li; Lin, Chang

2016-11-01

An approach of cooperative pursuit for multiple mobile targets based on multi-agents system is discussed. In this kind of problem the pursuit process is divided into two kinds of tasks. The first one (coalition problem) is designed to solve the problem of the pursuit team formation. To achieve this mission, we used an innovative method based on a dynamic organisation and reorganisation of the pursuers' groups. We introduce our coalition strategy extended from the organisational agent, group, role model by assigning an access mechanism to the groups inspired by fuzzy logic principles. The second task (motion problem) is the treatment of the pursuers' motion strategy. To manage this problem we applied the principles of the Markov decision process. Simulation results show the feasibility and validity of the given proposal.

Agent-based simulation for human-induced hazard analysis.

PubMed

Bulleit, William M; Drewek, Matthew W

2011-02-01

Terrorism could be treated as a hazard for design purposes. For instance, the terrorist hazard could be analyzed in a manner similar to the way that seismic hazard is handled. No matter how terrorism is dealt with in the design of systems, the need for predictions of the frequency and magnitude of the hazard will be required. And, if the human-induced hazard is to be designed for in a manner analogous to natural hazards, then the predictions should be probabilistic in nature. The model described in this article is a prototype model that used agent-based modeling (ABM) to analyze terrorist attacks. The basic approach in this article of using ABM to model human-induced hazards has been preliminarily validated in the sense that the attack magnitudes seem to be power-law distributed and attacks occur mostly in regions where high levels of wealth pass through, such as transit routes and markets. The model developed in this study indicates that ABM is a viable approach to modeling socioeconomic-based infrastructure systems for engineering design to deal with human-induced hazards. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Strengthening Theoretical Testing in Criminology Using Agent-based Modeling.

PubMed

Johnson, Shane D; Groff, Elizabeth R

2014-07-01

The Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency ( JRCD ) has published important contributions to both criminological theory and associated empirical tests. In this article, we consider some of the challenges associated with traditional approaches to social science research, and discuss a complementary approach that is gaining popularity-agent-based computational modeling-that may offer new opportunities to strengthen theories of crime and develop insights into phenomena of interest. Two literature reviews are completed. The aim of the first is to identify those articles published in JRCD that have been the most influential and to classify the theoretical perspectives taken. The second is intended to identify those studies that have used an agent-based model (ABM) to examine criminological theories and to identify which theories have been explored. Ecological theories of crime pattern formation have received the most attention from researchers using ABMs, but many other criminological theories are amenable to testing using such methods. Traditional methods of theory development and testing suffer from a number of potential issues that a more systematic use of ABMs-not without its own issues-may help to overcome. ABMs should become another method in the criminologists toolbox to aid theory testing and falsification.

A systems approach to healthcare: agent-based modeling, community mental health, and population well-being.

PubMed

Silverman, Barry G; Hanrahan, Nancy; Bharathy, Gnana; Gordon, Kim; Johnson, Dan

2015-02-01

Explore whether agent-based modeling and simulation can help healthcare administrators discover interventions that increase population wellness and quality of care while, simultaneously, decreasing costs. Since important dynamics often lie in the social determinants outside the health facilities that provide services, this study thus models the problem at three levels (individuals, organizations, and society). The study explores the utility of translating an existing (prize winning) software for modeling complex societal systems and agent's daily life activities (like a Sim City style of software), into a desired decision support system. A case study tests if the 3 levels of system modeling approach is feasible, valid, and useful. The case study involves an urban population with serious mental health and Philadelphia's Medicaid population (n=527,056), in particular. Section 3 explains the models using data from the case study and thereby establishes feasibility of the approach for modeling a real system. The models were trained and tuned using national epidemiologic datasets and various domain expert inputs. To avoid co-mingling of training and testing data, the simulations were then run and compared (Section 4.1) to an analysis of 250,000 Philadelphia patient hospital admissions for the year 2010 in terms of re-hospitalization rate, number of doctor visits, and days in hospital. Based on the Student t-test, deviations between simulated vs. real world outcomes are not statistically significant. Validity is thus established for the 2008-2010 timeframe. We computed models of various types of interventions that were ineffective as well as 4 categories of interventions (e.g., reduced per-nurse caseload, increased check-ins and stays, etc.) that result in improvement in well-being and cost. The 3 level approach appears to be useful to help health administrators sort through system complexities to find effective interventions at lower costs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Agent-based Model for Groundwater Allocation and Management at the Bakken Shale in Western North Dakota

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, T.; Lin, Z.; Lim, S.

2017-12-01

We present an integrated modeling framework to simulate groundwater level change under the dramatic increase of hydraulic fracturing water use in the Bakken Shale oil production area. The framework combines the agent-based model (ABM) with the Fox Hills-Hell Creek (FH-HC) groundwater model. In development of the ABM, institution theory is used to model the regulation policies from the North Dakota State Water Commission, while evolutionary programming and cognitive maps are used to model the social structure that emerges from the behavior of competing individual water businesses. Evolutionary programming allows individuals to select an appropriate strategy when annually applying for potential water use permits; whereas cognitive maps endow agent's ability and willingness to compete for more water sales. All agents have their own influence boundaries that inhibit their competitive behavior toward their neighbors but not to non-neighbors. The decision-making process is constructed and parameterized with both quantitative and qualitative information, i.e., empirical water use data and knowledge gained from surveys with stakeholders. By linking institution theory, evolutionary programming, and cognitive maps, our approach addresses a higher complexity of the real decision making process. Furthermore, this approach is a new exploration for modeling the dynamics of Coupled Human and Natural System. After integrating ABM with the FH-HC model, drought and limited water accessibility scenarios are simulated to predict FH-HC ground water level changes in the future. The integrated modeling framework of ABM and FH-HC model can be used to support making scientifically sound policies in water allocation and management.

Cognitive Network Modeling as a Basis for Characterizing Human Communication Dynamics and Belief Contagion in Technology Adoption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hutto, Clayton; Briscoe, Erica; Trewhitt, Ethan

2012-01-01

Societal level macro models of social behavior do not sufficiently capture nuances needed to adequately represent the dynamics of person-to-person interactions. Likewise, individual agent level micro models have limited scalability - even minute parameter changes can drastically affect a model's response characteristics. This work presents an approach that uses agent-based modeling to represent detailed intra- and inter-personal interactions, as well as a system dynamics model to integrate societal-level influences via reciprocating functions. A Cognitive Network Model (CNM) is proposed as a method of quantitatively characterizing cognitive mechanisms at the intra-individual level. To capture the rich dynamics of interpersonal communication for the propagation of beliefs and attitudes, a Socio-Cognitive Network Model (SCNM) is presented. The SCNM uses socio-cognitive tie strength to regulate how agents influence--and are influenced by--one another's beliefs during social interactions. We then present experimental results which support the use of this network analytical approach, and we discuss its applicability towards characterizing and understanding human information processing.

An Agent-Based Optimization Framework for Engineered Complex Adaptive Systems with Application to Demand Response in Electricity Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haghnevis, Moeed

The main objective of this research is to develop an integrated method to study emergent behavior and consequences of evolution and adaptation in engineered complex adaptive systems (ECASs). A multi-layer conceptual framework and modeling approach including behavioral and structural aspects is provided to describe the structure of a class of engineered complex systems and predict their future adaptive patterns. The approach allows the examination of complexity in the structure and the behavior of components as a result of their connections and in relation to their environment. This research describes and uses the major differences of natural complex adaptive systems (CASs) with artificial/engineered CASs to build a framework and platform for ECAS. While this framework focuses on the critical factors of an engineered system, it also enables one to synthetically employ engineering and mathematical models to analyze and measure complexity in such systems. In this way concepts of complex systems science are adapted to management science and system of systems engineering. In particular an integrated consumer-based optimization and agent-based modeling (ABM) platform is presented that enables managers to predict and partially control patterns of behaviors in ECASs. Demonstrated on the U.S. electricity markets, ABM is integrated with normative and subjective decision behavior recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The approach integrates social networks, social science, complexity theory, and diffusion theory. Furthermore, it has unique and significant contribution in exploring and representing concrete managerial insights for ECASs and offering new optimized actions and modeling paradigms in agent-based simulation.

A Sampling-Based Bayesian Approach for Cooperative Multiagent Online Search With Resource Constraints.

PubMed

Xiao, Hu; Cui, Rongxin; Xu, Demin

2018-06-01

This paper presents a cooperative multiagent search algorithm to solve the problem of searching for a target on a 2-D plane under multiple constraints. A Bayesian framework is used to update the local probability density functions (PDFs) of the target when the agents obtain observation information. To obtain the global PDF used for decision making, a sampling-based logarithmic opinion pool algorithm is proposed to fuse the local PDFs, and a particle sampling approach is used to represent the continuous PDF. Then the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is applied to reconstitute the global PDF from the particles, and a weighted expectation maximization algorithm is presented to estimate the parameters of the GMM. Furthermore, we propose an optimization objective which aims to guide agents to find the target with less resource consumptions, and to keep the resource consumption of each agent balanced simultaneously. To this end, a utility function-based optimization problem is put forward, and it is solved by a gradient-based approach. Several contrastive simulations demonstrate that compared with other existing approaches, the proposed one uses less overall resources and shows a better performance of balancing the resource consumption.

Lipid Raft Size and Lipid Mobility in Non-raft Domains Increase during Aging and Are Exacerbated in APP/PS1 Mice Model of Alzheimer's Disease. Predictions from an Agent-Based Mathematical Model

PubMed Central

Santos, Guido; Díaz, Mario; Torres, Néstor V.

2016-01-01

A connection between lipid rafts and Alzheimer's disease has been studied during the last decades. Mathematical modeling approaches have recently been used to correlate the effects of lipid composition changes in the physicochemical properties of raft-like membranes. Here we propose an agent based model to assess the effect of lipid changes in lipid rafts on the evolution and progression of Alzheimer's disease using lipid profile data obtained in an established model of familial Alzheimer's disease. We have observed that lipid raft size and lipid mobility in non-raft domains are two main factors that increase during age and are accelerated in the transgenic Alzheimer's disease mouse model. The consequences of these changes are discussed in the context of neurotoxic amyloid β production. Our agent based model predicts that increasing sterols (mainly cholesterol) and long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFA) (mainly DHA, docosahexaenoic acid) proportions in the membrane composition might delay the onset and progression of the disease. PMID:27014089

An Agent-based Modeling of Water-Food Nexus towards Sustainable Management of Urban Water Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esmaeili, N.; Kanta, L.

2017-12-01

Growing population, urbanization, and climate change have put tremendous stress on water systems in many regions. A shortage in water system not only affects water users of a municipality but also that of food system. About 70% of global water is withdrawn for agriculture; livestock and dairy productions are also dependent on water availability. Although researchers and policy makers have identified and emphasized the water-food (WF) nexus in recent decade, most existing WF models offer strategies to reduce trade-offs and to generate benefits without considering feedback loops and adaptations between those systems. Feedback loops between water and food system can help understand long-term behavioral trends between water users of the integrated WF system which, in turn, can help manage water resources sustainably. An Agent-based modeling approach is applied here to develop a conceptual framework of WF systems. All water users in this system are modeled as agents, who are capable of making decisions and can adapt new behavior based on inputs from other agents in a shared environment through a set of logical and mathematical rules. Residential and commercial/industrial consumers are represented as municipal agents; crop, livestock, and dairy farmers are represented as food agents; and water management officials are represented as policy agent. During the period of water shortage, policy agent will propose/impose various water conservation measures, such as adapting water-efficient technologies, banning outdoor irrigation, implementing supplemental irrigation, using recycled water for livestock/dairy production, among others. Municipal and food agents may adapt conservation strategies and will update their demand accordingly. Emergent properties of the WF nexus will arise through dynamic interactions between various actors of water and food system. This model will be implemented to a case study for resource allocation and future policy development.

Agent-Based Simulation for Interconnection-Scale Renewable Integration and Demand Response Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chassin, David P.; Behboodi, Sahand; Crawford, Curran

This paper collects and synthesizes the technical requirements, implementation, and validation methods for quasi-steady agent-based simulations of interconnectionscale models with particular attention to the integration of renewable generation and controllable loads. Approaches for modeling aggregated controllable loads are presented and placed in the same control and economic modeling framework as generation resources for interconnection planning studies. Model performance is examined with system parameters that are typical for an interconnection approximately the size of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) and a control area about 1/100 the size of the system. These results are used to demonstrate and validate the methodsmore » presented.« less

Agent-Based Simulation for Interconnection-Scale Renewable Integration and Demand Response Studies

DOE PAGES

Chassin, David P.; Behboodi, Sahand; Crawford, Curran; ...

2015-12-23

This paper collects and synthesizes the technical requirements, implementation, and validation methods for quasi-steady agent-based simulations of interconnectionscale models with particular attention to the integration of renewable generation and controllable loads. Approaches for modeling aggregated controllable loads are presented and placed in the same control and economic modeling framework as generation resources for interconnection planning studies. Model performance is examined with system parameters that are typical for an interconnection approximately the size of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) and a control area about 1/100 the size of the system. These results are used to demonstrate and validate the methodsmore » presented.« less

An agent-based approach for modeling dynamics of contagious disease spread

PubMed Central

Perez, Liliana; Dragicevic, Suzana

2009-01-01

Background The propagation of communicable diseases through a population is an inherent spatial and temporal process of great importance for modern society. For this reason a spatially explicit epidemiologic model of infectious disease is proposed for a greater understanding of the disease's spatial diffusion through a network of human contacts. Objective The objective of this study is to develop an agent-based modelling approach the integrates geographic information systems (GIS) to simulate the spread of a communicable disease in an urban environment, as a result of individuals' interactions in a geospatial context. Methods The methodology for simulating spatiotemporal dynamics of communicable disease propagation is presented and the model is implemented using measles outbreak in an urban environment as a case study. Individuals in a closed population are explicitly represented by agents associated to places where they interact with other agents. They are endowed with mobility, through a transportation network allowing them to move between places within the urban environment, in order to represent the spatial heterogeneity and the complexity involved in infectious diseases diffusion. The model is implemented on georeferenced land use dataset from Metro Vancouver and makes use of census data sets from Statistics Canada for the municipality of Burnaby, BC, Canada study site. Results The results provide insights into the application of the model to calculate ratios of susceptible/infected in specific time frames and urban environments, due to its ability to depict the disease progression based on individuals' interactions. It is demonstrated that the dynamic spatial interactions within the population lead to high numbers of exposed individuals who perform stationary activities in areas after they have finished commuting. As a result, the sick individuals are concentrated in geographical locations like schools and universities. Conclusion The GIS-agent based model designed for this study can be easily customized to study the disease spread dynamics of any other communicable disease by simply adjusting the modeled disease timeline and/or the infection model and modifying the transmission process. This type of simulations can help to improve comprehension of disease spread dynamics and to take better steps towards the prevention and control of an epidemic outbreak. PMID:19656403

Models of collective cell spreading with variable cell aspect ratio: a motivation for degenerate diffusion models.

PubMed

Simpson, Matthew J; Baker, Ruth E; McCue, Scott W

2011-02-01

Continuum diffusion models are often used to represent the collective motion of cell populations. Most previous studies have simply used linear diffusion to represent collective cell spreading, while others found that degenerate nonlinear diffusion provides a better match to experimental cell density profiles. In the cell modeling literature there is no guidance available with regard to which approach is more appropriate for representing the spreading of cell populations. Furthermore, there is no knowledge of particular experimental measurements that can be made to distinguish between situations where these two models are appropriate. Here we provide a link between individual-based and continuum models using a multiscale approach in which we analyze the collective motion of a population of interacting agents in a generalized lattice-based exclusion process. For round agents that occupy a single lattice site, we find that the relevant continuum description of the system is a linear diffusion equation, whereas for elongated rod-shaped agents that occupy L adjacent lattice sites we find that the relevant continuum description is connected to the porous media equation (PME). The exponent in the nonlinear diffusivity function is related to the aspect ratio of the agents. Our work provides a physical connection between modeling collective cell spreading and the use of either the linear diffusion equation or the PME to represent cell density profiles. Results suggest that when using continuum models to represent cell population spreading, we should take care to account for variations in the cell aspect ratio because different aspect ratios lead to different continuum models.

A Constructionist Approach to Student Modelling: Tracing a Student's Constructions through an Agent-Based Tutoring Architecture

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beuls, Katrien

2013-01-01

Construction Grammar (CxG) is a well-established linguistic theory that takes the notion of a construction as the basic unit of language. Yet, because the potential of this theory for language teaching or SLA has largely remained ignored, this paper demonstrates the benefits of adopting the CxG approach for modelling a student's linguistic…

Comparing administered and market-based water allocation systems using an agent-based modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, J.; Cai, X.; Wang, Z.

2009-12-01

It also has been well recognized that market-based systems can have significant advantages over administered systems for water allocation. However there are not many successful water markets around the world yet and administered systems exist commonly in water allocation management practice. This paradox has been under discussion for decades and still calls for attention for both research and practice. This paper explores some insights for the paradox and tries to address why market systems have not been widely implemented for water allocation. Adopting the theory of agent-based system we develop a consistent analytical model to interpret both systems. First we derive some theorems based on the analytical model, with respect to the necessary conditions for economic efficiency of water allocation. Following that the agent-based model is used to illustrate the coherence and difference between administered and market-based systems. The two systems are compared from three aspects: 1) the driving forces acting on the system state, 2) system efficiency, and 3) equity. Regarding economic efficiency, penalty on the violation of water use permits (or rights) under an administered system can lead to system-wide economic efficiency, as well as being acceptable by some agents, which follows the theory of the so-call rational violation. Ideal equity will be realized if penalty equals incentive with an administered system and if transaction costs are zero with a market system. The performances of both agents and the over system are explained with an administered system and market system, respectively. The performances of agents are subject to different mechanisms of interactions between agents under the two systems. The system emergency (i.e., system benefit, equilibrium market price, etc), resulting from the performance at the agent level, reflects the different mechanism of the two systems, the “invisible hand” with the market system and administrative measures (penalty and subsidy) with the administered system. Furthermore, the impact of hydrological uncertainty on the performance of water users under the two systems is analyzed by extending the deterministic model to a stochastic one subject to the uncertainty of water availability. It is found that the system response to hydrologic uncertainty depends on risk management mechanics - sharing risk equally among the agents or by prescribed priorities on some agents. Figure1. Agent formulation and its implications in administered system and market-based system

Managing a Common Pool Resource: Real Time Decision-Making in a Groundwater Aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahu, R.; McLaughlin, D.

2017-12-01

In a Common Pool Resource (CPR) such as a groundwater aquifer, multiple landowners (agents) are competing for a limited resource of water. Landowners pump out the water to grow their own crops. Such problems can be posed as differential games, with agents all trying to control the behavior of the shared dynamic system. Each agent aims to maximize his/her own personal objective like agriculture yield, being aware that the action of every other agent collectively influences the behavior of the shared aquifer. The agents therefore choose a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium strategy that derives an optimal action for each agent based on the current state of the aquifer and assumes perfect information of every other agents' objective function. Furthermore, using an Iterated Best Response approach and interpolating techniques, an optimal pumping strategy can be computed for a more-realistic description of the groundwater model under certain assumptions. The numerical implementation of dynamic optimization techniques for a relevant description of the physical system yields results qualitatively different from the previous solutions obtained from simple abstractions.This work aims to bridge the gap between extensive modeling approaches in hydrology and competitive solution strategies in differential game theory.

Holistic flood risk assessment using agent-based modelling: the case of Sint Maarten Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abayneh Abebe, Yared; Vojinovic, Zoran; Nikolic, Igor; Hammond, Michael; Sanchez, Arlex; Pelling, Mark

2015-04-01

Floods in coastal regions are regarded as one of the most dangerous and harmful disasters. Though commonly referred to as natural disasters, coastal floods are also attributable to various social, economic, historical and political issues. Rapid urbanisation in coastal areas combined with climate change and poor governance can lead to a significant increase in the risk of pluvial flooding coinciding with fluvial and coastal flooding posing a greater risk of devastation in coastal communities. Disasters that can be triggered by hydro-meteorological events are interconnected and interrelated with both human activities and natural processes. They, therefore, require holistic approaches to help understand their complexity in order to design and develop adaptive risk management approaches that minimise social and economic losses and environmental impacts, and increase resilience to such events. Being located in the North Atlantic Ocean, Sint Maarten is frequently subjected to hurricanes. In addition, the stormwater catchments and streams on Sint Maarten have several unique characteristics that contribute to the severity of flood-related impacts. Urban environments are usually situated in low-lying areas, with little consideration for stormwater drainage, and as such are subject to flash flooding. Hence, Sint Maarten authorities drafted policies to minimise the risk of flood-related disasters on the island. In this study, an agent-based model is designed and applied to understand the implications of introduced policies and regulations, and to understand how different actors' behaviours influence the formation, propagation and accumulation of flood risk. The agent-based model built for this study is based on the MAIA meta-model, which helps to decompose, structure and conceptualize socio-technical systems with an agent-oriented perspective, and is developed using the NetLogo simulation environment. The agents described in this model are households and businesses, and policies on spatial planning rules are implemented. Preliminary results demonstrate the evolving nature of flood risks and describe the effectiveness of different planning policies to reduce risk and increase resilience.

GridLAB-D: An Agent-Based Simulation Framework for Smart Grids

DOE PAGES

Chassin, David P.; Fuller, Jason C.; Djilali, Ned

2014-01-01

Simulation of smart grid technologies requires a fundamentally new approach to integrated modeling of power systems, energy markets, building technologies, and the plethora of other resources and assets that are becoming part of modern electricity production, delivery, and consumption systems. As a result, the US Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity commissioned the development of a new type of power system simulation tool called GridLAB-D that uses an agent-based approach to simulating smart grids. This paper presents the numerical methods and approach to time-series simulation used by GridLAB-D and reviews applications in power system studies, market design, building control systemmore » design, and integration of wind power in a smart grid.« less

GridLAB-D: An Agent-Based Simulation Framework for Smart Grids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chassin, David P.; Fuller, Jason C.; Djilali, Ned

2014-06-23

Simulation of smart grid technologies requires a fundamentally new approach to integrated modeling of power systems, energy markets, building technologies, and the plethora of other resources and assets that are becoming part of modern electricity production, delivery, and consumption systems. As a result, the US Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity commissioned the development of a new type of power system simulation tool called GridLAB-D that uses an agent-based approach to simulating smart grids. This paper presents the numerical methods and approach to time-series simulation used by GridLAB-D and reviews applications in power system studies, market design, building control systemmore » design, and integration of wind power in a smart grid.« less

Phenomenological modelling of self-healing polymers based on integrated healing agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mergheim, Julia; Steinmann, Paul

2013-09-01

The present contribution introduces a phenomenological model for self-healing polymers. Self-healing polymers are a promising class of materials which mimic nature by their capability to autonomously heal micro-cracks. This self-healing is accomplished by the integration of microcapsules containing a healing agent and a dispersed catalyst into the matrix material. Propagating microcracks may then break the capsules which releases the healing agent into the microcracks where it polymerizes with the catalyst, closes the crack and 'heals' the material. The present modelling approach treats these processes at the macroscopic scale, the microscopic details of crack propagation and healing are thus described by means of continuous damage and healing variables. The formulation of the healing model accounts for the fact that healing is directly associated with the curing process of healing agent and catalyst. The model is implemented and its capabilities are studied by means of numerical examples.

Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

PubMed

Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

2014-01-01

Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

Confidence and the Stock Market: An Agent-Based Approach

PubMed Central

Bertella, Mario A.; Pires, Felipe R.; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

2014-01-01

Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations—indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior. PMID:24421888

Contagion Shocks in One Dimension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertozzi, Andrea L.; Rosado, Jesus; Short, Martin B.; Wang, Li

2015-02-01

We consider an agent-based model of emotional contagion coupled with motion in one dimension that has recently been studied in the computer science community. The model involves movement with a speed proportional to a "fear" variable that undergoes a temporal consensus averaging based on distance to other agents. We study the effect of Riemann initial data for this problem, leading to shock dynamics that are studied both within the agent-based model as well as in a continuum limit. We examine the behavior of the model under distinguished limits as the characteristic contagion interaction distance and the interaction timescale both approach zero. The limiting behavior is related to a classical model for pressureless gas dynamics with "sticky" particles. In comparison, we observe a threshold for the interaction distance vs. interaction timescale that produce qualitatively different behavior for the system - in one case particle paths do not cross and there is a natural Eulerian limit involving nonlocal interactions and in the other case particle paths can cross and one may consider only a kinetic model in the continuum limit.

Dynamical systems approach to the study of a sociophysics agent-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timpanaro, André M.; Prado, Carmen P. C.

2011-03-01

The Sznajd model is a Potts-like model that has been studied in the context of sociophysics [1,2] (where spins are interpreted as opinions). In a recent work [3], we generalized the Sznajd model to include assymetric interactions between the spins (interpreted as biases towards opinions) and used dynamical systems techniques to tackle its mean-field version, given by the flow: ησ = ∑ σ' = 1Mησησ'(ησρσ'→σ-σ'ρσ→σ'). Where hs is the proportion of agents with opinion (spin) σ', M is the number of opinions and σ'→σ' is the probability weight for an agent with opinion σ being convinced by another agent with opinion σ'. We made Monte Carlo simulations of the model in a complex network (using Barabási-Albert networks [4]) and they displayed the same attractors than the mean-field. Using linear stability analysis, we were able to determine the mean-field attractor structure analytically and to show that it has connections with well known graph theory problems (maximal independent sets and positive fluxes in directed graphs). Our dynamical systems approach is quite simple and can be used also in other models, like the voter model.

Agent-based modeling: case study in cleavage furrow models.

PubMed

Mogilner, Alex; Manhart, Angelika

2016-11-07

The number of studies in cell biology in which quantitative models accompany experiments has been growing steadily. Roughly, mathematical and computational techniques of these models can be classified as "differential equation based" (DE) or "agent based" (AB). Recently AB models have started to outnumber DE models, but understanding of AB philosophy and methodology is much less widespread than familiarity with DE techniques. Here we use the history of modeling a fundamental biological problem-positioning of the cleavage furrow in dividing cells-to explain how and why DE and AB models are used. We discuss differences, advantages, and shortcomings of these two approaches. © 2016 Mogilner and Manhart. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). Two months after publication it is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).

Agent-based modeling: case study in cleavage furrow models

PubMed Central

Mogilner, Alex; Manhart, Angelika

2016-01-01

The number of studies in cell biology in which quantitative models accompany experiments has been growing steadily. Roughly, mathematical and computational techniques of these models can be classified as “differential equation based” (DE) or “agent based” (AB). Recently AB models have started to outnumber DE models, but understanding of AB philosophy and methodology is much less widespread than familiarity with DE techniques. Here we use the history of modeling a fundamental biological problem—positioning of the cleavage furrow in dividing cells—to explain how and why DE and AB models are used. We discuss differences, advantages, and shortcomings of these two approaches. PMID:27811328

Work domain constraints for modelling surgical performance.

PubMed

Morineau, Thierry; Riffaud, Laurent; Morandi, Xavier; Villain, Jonathan; Jannin, Pierre

2015-10-01

Three main approaches can be identified for modelling surgical performance: a competency-based approach, a task-based approach, both largely explored in the literature, and a less known work domain-based approach. The work domain-based approach first describes the work domain properties that constrain the agent's actions and shape the performance. This paper presents a work domain-based approach for modelling performance during cervical spine surgery, based on the idea that anatomical structures delineate the surgical performance. This model was evaluated through an analysis of junior and senior surgeons' actions. Twenty-four cervical spine surgeries performed by two junior and two senior surgeons were recorded in real time by an expert surgeon. According to a work domain-based model describing an optimal progression through anatomical structures, the degree of adjustment of each surgical procedure to a statistical polynomial function was assessed. Each surgical procedure showed a significant suitability with the model and regression coefficient values around 0.9. However, the surgeries performed by senior surgeons fitted this model significantly better than those performed by junior surgeons. Analysis of the relative frequencies of actions on anatomical structures showed that some specific anatomical structures discriminate senior from junior performances. The work domain-based modelling approach can provide an overall statistical indicator of surgical performance, but in particular, it can highlight specific points of interest among anatomical structures that the surgeons dwelled on according to their level of expertise.

Simulation Models for Socioeconomic Inequalities in Health: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Speybroeck, Niko; Van Malderen, Carine; Harper, Sam; Müller, Birgit; Devleesschauwer, Brecht

2013-01-01

Background: The emergence and evolution of socioeconomic inequalities in health involves multiple factors interacting with each other at different levels. Simulation models are suitable for studying such complex and dynamic systems and have the ability to test the impact of policy interventions in silico. Objective: To explore how simulation models were used in the field of socioeconomic inequalities in health. Methods: An electronic search of studies assessing socioeconomic inequalities in health using a simulation model was conducted. Characteristics of the simulation models were extracted and distinct simulation approaches were identified. As an illustration, a simple agent-based model of the emergence of socioeconomic differences in alcohol abuse was developed. Results: We found 61 studies published between 1989 and 2013. Ten different simulation approaches were identified. The agent-based model illustration showed that multilevel, reciprocal and indirect effects of social determinants on health can be modeled flexibly. Discussion and Conclusions: Based on the review, we discuss the utility of using simulation models for studying health inequalities, and refer to good modeling practices for developing such models. The review and the simulation model example suggest that the use of simulation models may enhance the understanding and debate about existing and new socioeconomic inequalities of health frameworks. PMID:24192788

Nonlinear Dynamics and Heterogeneous Interacting Agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lux, Thomas; Reitz, Stefan; Samanidou, Eleni

Economic application of nonlinear dynamics, microscopic agent-based modelling, and the use of artificial intelligence techniques as learning devices of boundedly rational actors are among the most exciting interdisciplinary ventures of economic theory over the past decade. This volume provides us with a most fascinating series of examples on "complexity in action" exemplifying the scope and explanatory power of these innovative approaches.

Distributed Leader-Following Finite-Time Consensus Control for Linear Multiagent Systems under Switching Topology

PubMed Central

Xu, Xiaole; Chen, Shengyong

2014-01-01

This paper investigates the finite-time consensus problem of leader-following multiagent systems. The dynamical models for all following agents and the leader are assumed the same general form of linear system, and the interconnection topology among the agents is assumed to be switching and undirected. We mostly consider the continuous-time case. By assuming that the states of neighbouring agents are known to each agent, a sufficient condition is established for finite-time consensus via a neighbor-based state feedback protocol. While the states of neighbouring agents cannot be available and only the outputs of neighbouring agents can be accessed, the distributed observer-based consensus protocol is proposed for each following agent. A sufficient condition is provided in terms of linear matrix inequalities to design the observer-based consensus protocol, which makes the multiagent systems achieve finite-time consensus under switching topologies. Then, we discuss the counterparts for discrete-time case. Finally, we provide an illustrative example to show the effectiveness of the design approach. PMID:24883367

Prostate Cancer Chemoprevention Targeting Men with High-Grade Prostatic Intraepithelial Neoplasia (HGPIN) and Atypical Small Acinar Proliferation (ASAP): Model for Trial Design and Outcome Measures.

PubMed

Kumar, Nagi; Crocker, Theresa; Smith, Tiffany; Connors, Shahnjayla; Pow-Sang, Julio; Spiess, Philippe E; Egan, Kathleen; Quinn, Gwen; Schell, Michael; Sebti, Said; Kazi, Aslam; Chuang, Tian; Salup, Raoul; Helal, Mohamed; Zagaja, Gregory; Trabulsi, Edouard; McLarty, Jerry; Fazili, Tajammul; Williams, Christopher R; Schreiber, Fred; Anderson, Kyle

2012-01-21

In spite of the large number of nutrient-derived agents demonstrating promise as potential chemopreventive agents, most have failed to prove effectiveness in clinical trials. Critical requirements for moving nutrient-derived agents to recommendation for clinical use include adopting a systematic, molecular-mechanism based approach and utilizing the same ethical and rigorous methods such as are used to evaluate other pharmacological agents. Preliminary data on a mechanistic rationale for chemoprevention activity as observed from epidemiological, in vitro and preclinical studies, phase I data of safety in suitable cohorts, duration of intervention based on time to progression of preneoplastic disease to cancer and the use of a valid panel of biomarkers representing the hypothesized carcinogenesis pathway for measuring efficacy must inform the design of phase II clinical trials. The goal of this paper is to provide a model for evaluating a well characterized agent- Polyphenon E- in a phase II clinical trial of prostate cancer chemoprevention.

Prostate Cancer Chemoprevention Targeting Men with High-Grade Prostatic Intraepithelial Neoplasia (HGPIN) and Atypical Small Acinar Proliferation (ASAP): Model for Trial Design and Outcome Measures

PubMed Central

Kumar, Nagi; Crocker, Theresa; Smith, Tiffany; Connors, Shahnjayla; Pow-Sang, Julio; Spiess, Philippe E.; Egan, Kathleen; Quinn, Gwen; Schell, Michael; Sebti, Said; Kazi, Aslam; Chuang, Tian; Salup, Raoul; Helal, Mohamed; Zagaja, Gregory; Trabulsi, Edouard; McLarty, Jerry; Fazili, Tajammul; Williams, Christopher R.; Schreiber, Fred; Anderson, Kyle

2014-01-01

In spite of the large number of nutrient-derived agents demonstrating promise as potential chemopreventive agents, most have failed to prove effectiveness in clinical trials. Critical requirements for moving nutrient-derived agents to recommendation for clinical use include adopting a systematic, molecular-mechanism based approach and utilizing the same ethical and rigorous methods such as are used to evaluate other pharmacological agents. Preliminary data on a mechanistic rationale for chemoprevention activity as observed from epidemiological, in vitro and preclinical studies, phase I data of safety in suitable cohorts, duration of intervention based on time to progression of preneoplastic disease to cancer and the use of a valid panel of biomarkers representing the hypothesized carcinogenesis pathway for measuring efficacy must inform the design of phase II clinical trials. The goal of this paper is to provide a model for evaluating a well characterized agent- Polyphenon E- in a phase II clinical trial of prostate cancer chemoprevention. PMID:24533253

Modeling Protective Anti-Tumor Immunity via Preventative Cancer Vaccines Using a Hybrid Agent-based and Delay Differential Equation Approach

PubMed Central

Kim, Peter S.; Lee, Peter P.

2012-01-01

A next generation approach to cancer envisions developing preventative vaccinations to stimulate a person's immune cells, particularly cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs), to eliminate incipient tumors before clinical detection. The purpose of our study is to quantitatively assess whether such an approach would be feasible, and if so, how many anti-cancer CTLs would have to be primed against tumor antigen to provide significant protection. To understand the relevant dynamics, we develop a two-compartment model of tumor-immune interactions at the tumor site and the draining lymph node. We model interactions at the tumor site using an agent-based model (ABM) and dynamics in the lymph node using a system of delay differential equations (DDEs). We combine the models into a hybrid ABM-DDE system and investigate dynamics over a wide range of parameters, including cell proliferation rates, tumor antigenicity, CTL recruitment times, and initial memory CTL populations. Our results indicate that an anti-cancer memory CTL pool of 3% or less can successfully eradicate a tumor population over a wide range of model parameters, implying that a vaccination approach is feasible. In addition, sensitivity analysis of our model reveals conditions that will result in rapid tumor destruction, oscillation, and polynomial rather than exponential decline in the tumor population due to tumor geometry. PMID:23133347

A Stigmergy Collaboration Approach in the Open Source Software Developer Community

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cui, Xiaohui; Pullum, Laura L; Treadwell, Jim N

2009-01-01

The communication model of some self-organized online communities is significantly different from the traditional social network based community. It is problematic to use social network analysis to analyze the collaboration structure and emergent behaviors in these communities because these communities lack peer-to-peer connections. Stigmergy theory provides an explanation of the collaboration model of these communities. In this research, we present a stigmergy approach for building an agent-based simulation to simulate the collaboration model in the open source software (OSS) developer community. We used a group of actors who collaborate on OSS projects through forums as our frame of reference andmore » investigated how the choices actors make in contributing their work on the projects determines the global status of the whole OSS project. In our simulation, the forum posts serve as the digital pheromone and the modified Pierre-Paul Grasse pheromone model is used for computing the developer agents behavior selection probability.« less

An agent-based hydroeconomic model to evaluate water policies in Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; Gorelick, S.

2014-12-01

Modern water systems can be characterized by a complex network of institutional and private actors that represent competing sectors and interests. Identifying solutions to enhance water security in such systems calls for analysis that can adequately account for this level of complexity and interaction. Our work focuses on the development of a hierarchical, multi-agent, hydroeconomic model that attempts to realistically represent complex interactions between hydrologic and multi-faceted human systems. The model is applied to Jordan, one of the most water-poor countries in the world. In recent years, the water crisis in Jordan has escalated due to an ongoing drought and influx of refugees from regional conflicts. We adopt a modular approach in which biophysical modules simulate natural and engineering phenomena, and human modules represent behavior at multiple scales of decision making. The human modules employ agent-based modeling, in which agents act as autonomous decision makers at the transboundary, state, organizational, and user levels. A systematic nomenclature and conceptual framework is used to characterize model agents and modules. Concepts from the Unified Modeling Language (UML) are adopted to promote clear conceptualization of model classes and process sequencing, establishing a foundation for full deployment of the integrated model in a scalable object-oriented programming environment. Although the framework is applied to the Jordanian water context, it is generalizable to other regional human-natural freshwater supply systems.

Translational systems biology using an agent-based approach for dynamic knowledge representation: An evolutionary paradigm for biomedical research.

PubMed

An, Gary C

2010-01-01

The greatest challenge facing the biomedical research community is the effective translation of basic mechanistic knowledge into clinically effective therapeutics. This challenge is most evident in attempts to understand and modulate "systems" processes/disorders, such as sepsis, cancer, and wound healing. Formulating an investigatory strategy for these issues requires the recognition that these are dynamic processes. Representation of the dynamic behavior of biological systems can aid in the investigation of complex pathophysiological processes by augmenting existing discovery procedures by integrating disparate information sources and knowledge. This approach is termed Translational Systems Biology. Focusing on the development of computational models capturing the behavior of mechanistic hypotheses provides a tool that bridges gaps in the understanding of a disease process by visualizing "thought experiments" to fill those gaps. Agent-based modeling is a computational method particularly well suited to the translation of mechanistic knowledge into a computational framework. Utilizing agent-based models as a means of dynamic hypothesis representation will be a vital means of describing, communicating, and integrating community-wide knowledge. The transparent representation of hypotheses in this dynamic fashion can form the basis of "knowledge ecologies," where selection between competing hypotheses will apply an evolutionary paradigm to the development of community knowledge.

Linking agent-based models and stochastic models of financial markets

PubMed Central

Feng, Ling; Li, Baowen; Podobnik, Boris; Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H. Eugene

2012-01-01

It is well-known that financial asset returns exhibit fat-tailed distributions and long-term memory. These empirical features are the main objectives of modeling efforts using (i) stochastic processes to quantitatively reproduce these features and (ii) agent-based simulations to understand the underlying microscopic interactions. After reviewing selected empirical and theoretical evidence documenting the behavior of traders, we construct an agent-based model to quantitatively demonstrate that “fat” tails in return distributions arise when traders share similar technical trading strategies and decisions. Extending our behavioral model to a stochastic model, we derive and explain a set of quantitative scaling relations of long-term memory from the empirical behavior of individual market participants. Our analysis provides a behavioral interpretation of the long-term memory of absolute and squared price returns: They are directly linked to the way investors evaluate their investments by applying technical strategies at different investment horizons, and this quantitative relationship is in agreement with empirical findings. Our approach provides a possible behavioral explanation for stochastic models for financial systems in general and provides a method to parameterize such models from market data rather than from statistical fitting. PMID:22586086

Linking agent-based models and stochastic models of financial markets.

PubMed

Feng, Ling; Li, Baowen; Podobnik, Boris; Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H Eugene

2012-05-29

It is well-known that financial asset returns exhibit fat-tailed distributions and long-term memory. These empirical features are the main objectives of modeling efforts using (i) stochastic processes to quantitatively reproduce these features and (ii) agent-based simulations to understand the underlying microscopic interactions. After reviewing selected empirical and theoretical evidence documenting the behavior of traders, we construct an agent-based model to quantitatively demonstrate that "fat" tails in return distributions arise when traders share similar technical trading strategies and decisions. Extending our behavioral model to a stochastic model, we derive and explain a set of quantitative scaling relations of long-term memory from the empirical behavior of individual market participants. Our analysis provides a behavioral interpretation of the long-term memory of absolute and squared price returns: They are directly linked to the way investors evaluate their investments by applying technical strategies at different investment horizons, and this quantitative relationship is in agreement with empirical findings. Our approach provides a possible behavioral explanation for stochastic models for financial systems in general and provides a method to parameterize such models from market data rather than from statistical fitting.

Enhanced Deployment Strategy for Role-based Hierarchical Application Agents in Wireless Sensor Networks with Established Clusterheads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gendreau, Audrey

Efficient self-organizing virtual clusterheads that supervise data collection based on their wireless connectivity, risk, and overhead costs, are an important element of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs). This function is especially critical during deployment when system resources are allocated to a subsequent application. In the presented research, a model used to deploy intrusion detection capability on a Local Area Network (LAN), in the literature, was extended to develop a role-based hierarchical agent deployment algorithm for a WSN. The resulting model took into consideration the monitoring capability, risk, deployment distribution cost, and monitoring cost associated with each node. Changing the original LAN methodology approach to model a cluster-based sensor network depended on the ability to duplicate a specific parameter that represented the monitoring capability. Furthermore, other parameters derived from a LAN can elevate costs and risk of deployment, as well as jeopardize the success of an application on a WSN. A key component of the approach presented in this research was to reduce the costs when established clusterheads in the network were found to be capable of hosting additional detection agents. In addition, another cost savings component of the study addressed the reduction of vulnerabilities associated with deployment of agents to high volume nodes. The effectiveness of the presented method was validated by comparing it against a type of a power-based scheme that used each node's remaining energy as the deployment value. While available energy is directly related to the model used in the presented method, the study deliberately sought out nodes that were identified with having superior monitoring capability, cost less to create and sustain, and are at low-risk of an attack. This work investigated improving the efficiency of an intrusion detection system (IDS) by using the proposed model to deploy monitoring agents after a temperature sensing application had established the network traffic flow to the sink. The same scenario was repeated using a power-based IDS to compare it against the proposed model. To identify a clusterhead's ability to host monitoring agents after the temperature sensing application terminated, the deployed IDS utilized the communication history and other network factors in order to rank the nodes. Similarly, using the node's communication history, the deployed power-based IDS ranked nodes based on their remaining power. For each individual scenario, and after the IDS application was deployed, the temperature sensing application was run for a second time. This time, to monitor the temperature sensing agents as the data flowed towards the sink, the network traffic was rerouted through the new intrusion detection clusterheads. Consequently, if the clusterheads were shared, the re-routing step was not preformed. Experimental results in this research demonstrated the effectiveness of applying a robust deployment metric to improve upon the energy efficiency of a deployed application in a multi-application WSN. It was found that in the scenarios with the intrusion detection application that utilized the proposed model resulted in more remaining energy than in the scenarios that implemented the power-based IDS. The algorithm especially had a positive impact on the small, dense, and more homogeneous networks. This finding was reinforced by the smaller percentage of new clusterheads that was selected. Essentially, the energy cost of the route to the sink was reduced because the network traffic was rerouted through fewer new clusterheads. Additionally, it was found that the intrusion detection topology that used the proposed approach formed smaller and more connected sets of clusterheads than the power-based IDS. As a consequence, this proposed approach essentially achieved the research objective for enhancing energy use in a multi-application WSN.

The benefits of paired-agent imaging in molecular-guided surgery: an update on methods and applications (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tichauer, Kenneth M.

2016-03-01

One of the major complications with conventional imaging-agent-based molecular imaging, particularly for cancer imaging, is variability in agent delivery and nonspecific retention in biological tissue. Such factors can account to "swamp" the signal arising from specifically bound imaging agent, which is presumably indicative of the concentration of targeted biomolecule. In the 1950s, Pressman et al. proposed a method of accounting for these delivery and retention effects by normalizing targeted antibody retention to the retention of a co-administered "untargeted"/control imaging agent [1]. Our group resurrected the approach within the last 5 years, finding ways to utilize this so-called "paired-agent" imaging approach to directly quantify biomolecule concentration in tissue (in vitro, ex vivo, and in vivo) [2]. These novel paired-agent imaging approaches capable of quantifying biomolecule concentration provide enormous potential for being adapted to and optimizing molecular-guided surgery, which has a principle goal of identifying distinct biological tissues (tumor, nerves, etc…) based on their distinct molecular environment. This presentation will cover the principles and nuances of paired-agent imaging, as well as the current status of the field and future applications. [1] D. Pressman, E. D. Day, and M. Blau, "The use of paired labeling in the determination of tumor-localizing antibodies," Cancer Res, 17(9), 845-50 (1957). [2] K. M. Tichauer, Y. Wang, B. W. Pogue et al., "Quantitative in vivo cell-surface receptor imaging in oncology: kinetic modeling and paired-agent principles from nuclear medicine and optical imaging," Phys Med Biol, 60(14), R239-69 (2015).

Modeling Emergence in Neuroprotective Regulatory Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanfilippo, Antonio P.; Haack, Jereme N.; McDermott, Jason E.

2013-01-05

The use of predictive modeling in the analysis of gene expression data can greatly accelerate the pace of scientific discovery in biomedical research by enabling in silico experimentation to test disease triggers and potential drug therapies. Techniques that focus on modeling emergence, such as agent-based modeling and multi-agent simulations, are of particular interest as they support the discovery of pathways that may have never been observed in the past. Thus far, these techniques have been primarily applied at the multi-cellular level, or have focused on signaling and metabolic networks. We present an approach where emergence modeling is extended to regulatorymore » networks and demonstrate its application to the discovery of neuroprotective pathways. An initial evaluation of the approach indicates that emergence modeling provides novel insights for the analysis of regulatory networks that can advance the discovery of acute treatments for stroke and other diseases.« less

Can human-like Bots control collective mood: agent-based simulations of online chats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadić, Bosiljka; Šuvakov, Milovan

2013-10-01

Using an agent-based modeling approach, in this paper, we study self-organized dynamics of interacting agents in the presence of chat Bots. Different Bots with tunable ‘human-like’ attributes, which exchange emotional messages with agents, are considered, and the collective emotional behavior of agents is quantitatively analyzed. In particular, using detrended fractal analysis we determine persistent fluctuations and temporal correlations in time series of agent activity and statistics of avalanches carrying emotional messages of agents when Bots favoring positive/negative affects are active. We determine the impact of Bots and identify parameters that can modulate that impact. Our analysis suggests that, by these measures, the emotional Bots induce collective emotion among interacting agents by suitably altering the fractal characteristics of the underlying stochastic process. Positive emotion Bots are slightly more effective than negative emotion Bots. Moreover, Bots which periodically alternate between positive and negative emotion can enhance fluctuations in the system, leading to avalanches of agent messages that are reminiscent of self-organized critical states.

Use of agents to implement an integrated computing environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hale, Mark A.; Craig, James I.

1995-01-01

Integrated Product and Process Development (IPPD) embodies the simultaneous application to both system and quality engineering methods throughout an iterative design process. The use of IPPD results in the time-conscious, cost-saving development of engineering systems. To implement IPPD, a Decision-Based Design perspective is encapsulated in an approach that focuses on the role of the human designer in product development. The approach has two parts and is outlined in this paper. First, an architecture, called DREAMS, is being developed that facilitates design from a decision-based perspective. Second, a supporting computing infrastructure, called IMAGE, is being designed. Agents are used to implement the overall infrastructure on the computer. Successful agent utilization requires that they be made of three components: the resource, the model, and the wrap. Current work is focused on the development of generalized agent schemes and associated demonstration projects. When in place, the technology independent computing infrastructure will aid the designer in systematically generating knowledge used to facilitate decision-making.

Agent-based modelling in synthetic biology.

PubMed

Gorochowski, Thomas E

2016-11-30

Biological systems exhibit complex behaviours that emerge at many different levels of organization. These span the regulation of gene expression within single cells to the use of quorum sensing to co-ordinate the action of entire bacterial colonies. Synthetic biology aims to make the engineering of biology easier, offering an opportunity to control natural systems and develop new synthetic systems with useful prescribed behaviours. However, in many cases, it is not understood how individual cells should be programmed to ensure the emergence of a required collective behaviour. Agent-based modelling aims to tackle this problem, offering a framework in which to simulate such systems and explore cellular design rules. In this article, I review the use of agent-based models in synthetic biology, outline the available computational tools, and provide details on recently engineered biological systems that are amenable to this approach. I further highlight the challenges facing this methodology and some of the potential future directions. © 2016 The Author(s).

System design in an evolving system-of-systems architecture and concept of operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rovekamp, Roger N., Jr.

Proposals for space exploration architectures have increased in complexity and scope. Constituent systems (e.g., rovers, habitats, in-situ resource utilization facilities, transfer vehicles, etc) must meet the needs of these architectures by performing in multiple operational environments and across multiple phases of the architecture's evolution. This thesis proposes an approach for using system-of-systems engineering principles in conjunction with system design methods (e.g., Multi-objective optimization, genetic algorithms, etc) to create system design options that perform effectively at both the system and system-of-systems levels, across multiple concepts of operations, and over multiple architectural phases. The framework is presented by way of an application problem that investigates the design of power systems within a power sharing architecture for use in a human Lunar Surface Exploration Campaign. A computer model has been developed that uses candidate power grid distribution solutions for a notional lunar base. The agent-based model utilizes virtual control agents to manage the interactions of various exploration and infrastructure agents. The philosophy behind the model is based both on lunar power supply strategies proposed in literature, as well as on the author's own approaches for power distribution strategies of future lunar bases. In addition to proposing a framework for system design, further implications of system-of-systems engineering principles are briefly explored, specifically as they relate to producing more robust cross-cultural system-of-systems architecture solutions.

Agent-based modeling of malaria vectors: the importance of spatial simulation.

PubMed

Bomblies, Arne

2014-07-03

The modeling of malaria vector mosquito populations yields great insight into drivers of malaria transmission at the village scale. Simulation of individual mosquitoes as "agents" in a distributed, dynamic model domain may be greatly beneficial for simulation of spatial relationships of vectors and hosts. In this study, an agent-based model is used to simulate the life cycle and movement of individual malaria vector mosquitoes in a Niger Sahel village, with individual simulated mosquitoes interacting with their physical environment as well as humans. Various processes that are known to be epidemiologically important, such as the dependence of parity on flight distance between developmental habitat and blood meal hosts and therefore spatial relationships of pools and houses, are readily simulated using this modeling paradigm. Impacts of perturbations can be evaluated on the basis of vectorial capacity, because the interactions between individuals that make up the population- scale metric vectorial capacity can be easily tracked for simulated mosquitoes and human blood meal hosts, without the need to estimate vectorial capacity parameters. As expected, model results show pronounced impacts of pool source reduction from larvicide application and draining, but with varying degrees of impact depending on the spatial relationship between pools and human habitation. Results highlight the importance of spatially-explicit simulation that can model individuals such as in an agent-based model. The impacts of perturbations on village scale malaria transmission depend on spatial locations of individual mosquitoes, as well as the tracking of relevant life cycle events and characteristics of individual mosquitoes. This study demonstrates advantages of using an agent-based approach for village-scale mosquito simulation to address questions in which spatial relationships are known to be important.

Coupling Agent-Based and Groundwater Modeling to Explore Demand Management Strategies for Shared Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Amin, S.

2015-12-01

Municipal water demands in growing population centers in the arid southwest US are typically met through increased groundwater withdrawals. Hydro-climatic uncertainties attributed to climate change and land use conversions may also alter demands and impact the replenishment of groundwater supply. Groundwater aquifers are not necessarily confined within municipal and management boundaries, and multiple diverse agencies may manage a shared resource in a decentralized approach, based on individual concerns and resources. The interactions among water managers, consumers, and the environment influence the performance of local management strategies and regional groundwater resources. This research couples an agent-based modeling (ABM) framework and a groundwater model to analyze the effects of different management approaches on shared groundwater resources. The ABM captures the dynamic interactions between household-level consumers and policy makers to simulate water demands under climate change and population growth uncertainties. The groundwater model is used to analyze the relative effects of management approaches on reducing demands and replenishing groundwater resources. The framework is applied for municipalities located in the Verde River Basin, Arizona that withdraw groundwater from the Verde Formation-Basin Fill-Carbonate aquifer system. Insights gained through this simulation study can be used to guide groundwater policy-making under changing hydro-climatic scenarios for a long-term planning horizon.

Integrated Agent-Based and Production Cost Modeling Framework for Renewable Energy Studies: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gallo, Giulia

The agent-based framework for renewable energy studies (ARES) is an integrated approach that adds an agent-based model of industry actors to PLEXOS and combines the strengths of the two to overcome their individual shortcomings. It can examine existing and novel wholesale electricity markets under high penetrations of renewables. ARES is demonstrated by studying how increasing levels of wind will impact the operations and the exercise of market power of generation companies that exploit an economic withholding strategy. The analysis is carried out on a test system that represents the Electric Reliability Council of Texas energy-only market in the year 2020.more » The results more realistically reproduce the operations of an energy market under different and increasing penetrations of wind, and ARES can be extended to address pressing issues in current and future wholesale electricity markets.« less

Integrated Agent-Based and Production Cost Modeling Framework for Renewable Energy Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gallo, Giulia

The agent-based framework for renewable energy studies (ARES) is an integrated approach that adds an agent-based model of industry actors to PLEXOS and combines the strengths of the two to overcome their individual shortcomings. It can examine existing and novel wholesale electricity markets under high penetrations of renewables. ARES is demonstrated by studying how increasing levels of wind will impact the operations and the exercise of market power of generation companies that exploit an economic withholding strategy. The analysis is carried out on a test system that represents the Electric Reliability Council of Texas energy-only market in the year 2020.more » The results more realistically reproduce the operations of an energy market under different and increasing penetrations of wind, and ARES can be extended to address pressing issues in current and future wholesale electricity markets.« less

Empirical validation of an agent-based model of wood markets in Switzerland

PubMed Central

Hilty, Lorenz M.; Lemm, Renato; Thees, Oliver

2018-01-01

We present an agent-based model of wood markets and show our efforts to validate this model using empirical data from different sources, including interviews, workshops, experiments, and official statistics. Own surveys closed gaps where data was not available. Our approach to model validation used a variety of techniques, including the replication of historical production amounts, prices, and survey results, as well as a historical case study of a large sawmill entering the market and becoming insolvent only a few years later. Validating the model using this case provided additional insights, showing how the model can be used to simulate scenarios of resource availability and resource allocation. We conclude that the outcome of the rigorous validation qualifies the model to simulate scenarios concerning resource availability and allocation in our study region. PMID:29351300

The Evolution of Cooperation in Managed Groundwater Systems: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castilla Rho, J. C.; Mariethoz, G.; Rojas, R. F.; Andersen, M. S.; Kelly, B. F.; Holley, C.

2014-12-01

Human interactions with groundwater systems often exhibit complex features that hinder the sustainable management of the resource. This leads to costly and persistent conflicts over groundwater at the catchment scale. One possible way to address these conflicts is by gaining a better understanding of how social and groundwater dynamics coevolve using agent-based models (ABM). Such models allow exploring 'bottom-up' solutions (i.e., self-organised governance systems), where the behaviour of individual agents (e.g., farmers) results in the emergence of mutual cooperation among groundwater users. There is significant empirical evidence indicating that this kind of 'bottom-up' approach may lead to more enduring and sustainable outcomes, compared to conventional 'top-down' strategies such as centralized control and water right schemes (Ostrom 1990). New modelling tools are needed to study these concepts systematically and efficiently. Our model uses a conceptual framework to study cooperation and the emergence of social norms as initially proposed by Axelrod (1986), which we adapted to groundwater management. We developed an ABM that integrates social mechanisms and the physics of subsurface flow. The model explicitly represents feedback between groundwater conditions and social dynamics, capturing the spatial structure of these interactions and the potential effects on cooperation levels in an agricultural setting. Using this model, we investigate a series of mechanisms that may trigger norms supporting cooperative strategies, which can be sustained and become stable over time. For example, farmers in a self-monitoring community can be more efficient at achieving the objective of sustainable groundwater use than government-imposed regulation. Our coupled model thus offers a platform for testing new schemes promoting cooperation and improved resource use, which can be used as a basis for policy design. Importantly, we hope to raise awareness of agent-based modelling as a new tool for studying complex human-groundwater systems.

Design and Simulation of Material-Integrated Distributed Sensor Processing with a Code-Based Agent Platform and Mobile Multi-Agent Systems

PubMed Central

Bosse, Stefan

2015-01-01

Multi-agent systems (MAS) can be used for decentralized and self-organizing data processing in a distributed system, like a resource-constrained sensor network, enabling distributed information extraction, for example, based on pattern recognition and self-organization, by decomposing complex tasks in simpler cooperative agents. Reliable MAS-based data processing approaches can aid the material-integration of structural-monitoring applications, with agent processing platforms scaled to the microchip level. The agent behavior, based on a dynamic activity-transition graph (ATG) model, is implemented with program code storing the control and the data state of an agent, which is novel. The program code can be modified by the agent itself using code morphing techniques and is capable of migrating in the network between nodes. The program code is a self-contained unit (a container) and embeds the agent data, the initialization instructions and the ATG behavior implementation. The microchip agent processing platform used for the execution of the agent code is a standalone multi-core stack machine with a zero-operand instruction format, leading to a small-sized agent program code, low system complexity and high system performance. The agent processing is token-queue-based, similar to Petri-nets. The agent platform can be implemented in software, too, offering compatibility at the operational and code level, supporting agent processing in strong heterogeneous networks. In this work, the agent platform embedded in a large-scale distributed sensor network is simulated at the architectural level by using agent-based simulation techniques. PMID:25690550

Design and simulation of material-integrated distributed sensor processing with a code-based agent platform and mobile multi-agent systems.

PubMed

Bosse, Stefan

2015-02-16

Multi-agent systems (MAS) can be used for decentralized and self-organizing data processing in a distributed system, like a resource-constrained sensor network, enabling distributed information extraction, for example, based on pattern recognition and self-organization, by decomposing complex tasks in simpler cooperative agents. Reliable MAS-based data processing approaches can aid the material-integration of structural-monitoring applications, with agent processing platforms scaled to the microchip level. The agent behavior, based on a dynamic activity-transition graph (ATG) model, is implemented with program code storing the control and the data state of an agent, which is novel. The program code can be modified by the agent itself using code morphing techniques and is capable of migrating in the network between nodes. The program code is a self-contained unit (a container) and embeds the agent data, the initialization instructions and the ATG behavior implementation. The microchip agent processing platform used for the execution of the agent code is a standalone multi-core stack machine with a zero-operand instruction format, leading to a small-sized agent program code, low system complexity and high system performance. The agent processing is token-queue-based, similar to Petri-nets. The agent platform can be implemented in software, too, offering compatibility at the operational and code level, supporting agent processing in strong heterogeneous networks. In this work, the agent platform embedded in a large-scale distributed sensor network is simulated at the architectural level by using agent-based simulation techniques.

Modeling Environmental Impacts on Cognitive Performance for Artificially Intelligent Entities

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

of the agent behavior model is presented in a military-relevant virtual game environment. We then outline a quantitative approach to test the agent...relevant virtual game environment. We then outline a quantitative approach to test the agent behavior model within the virtual environment. Results show...x Game View of Hot Environment Condition Displaying Total “f” Cost for Each Searched Waypoint Node

Decentralized Opportunistic Spectrum Resources Access Model and Algorithm toward Cooperative Ad-Hoc Networks.

PubMed

Liu, Ming; Xu, Yang; Mohammed, Abdul-Wahid

2016-01-01

Limited communication resources have gradually become a critical factor toward efficiency of decentralized large scale multi-agent coordination when both system scales up and tasks become more complex. In current researches, due to the agent's limited communication and observational capability, an agent in a decentralized setting can only choose a part of channels to access, but cannot perceive or share global information. Each agent's cooperative decision is based on the partial observation of the system state, and as such, uncertainty in the communication network is unavoidable. In this situation, it is a major challenge working out cooperative decision-making under uncertainty with only a partial observation of the environment. In this paper, we propose a decentralized approach that allows agents cooperatively search and independently choose channels. The key to our design is to build an up-to-date observation for each agent's view so that a local decision model is achievable in a large scale team coordination. We simplify the Dec-POMDP model problem, and each agent can jointly work out its communication policy in order to improve its local decision utilities for the choice of communication resources. Finally, we discuss an implicate resource competition game, and show that, there exists an approximate resources access tradeoff balance between agents. Based on this discovery, the tradeoff between real-time decision-making and the efficiency of cooperation using these channels can be well improved.

The distributed agent-based approach in the e-manufacturing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sękala, A.; Kost, G.; Dobrzańska-Danikiewicz, A.; Banaś, W.; Foit, K.

2015-11-01

The deficiency of a coherent flow of information from a production department causes unplanned downtime and failures of machines and their equipment, which in turn results in production planning process based on incorrect and out-of-date information. All of these factors entail, as the consequence, the additional difficulties associated with the process of decision-making. They concern, among other, the coordination of components of a distributed system and providing the access to the required information, thereby generating unnecessary costs. The use of agent technology significantly speeds up the flow of information within the virtual enterprise. This paper includes the proposal of a multi-agent approach for the integration of processes within the virtual enterprise concept. The presented concept was elaborated to investigate the possible solutions of the ways of transmission of information in the production system taking into account the self-organization of constituent components. Thus it implicated the linking of the concept of multi-agent system with the system of managing the production information, based on the idea of e-manufacturing. The paper presents resulting scheme that should be the base for elaborating an informatics model of the target virtual system. The computer system itself is intended to be developed next.

Towards a complex systems approach in sports injury research: simulating running-related injury development with agent-based modelling.

PubMed

Hulme, Adam; Thompson, Jason; Nielsen, Rasmus Oestergaard; Read, Gemma J M; Salmon, Paul M

2018-06-18

There have been recent calls for the application of the complex systems approach in sports injury research. However, beyond theoretical description and static models of complexity, little progress has been made towards formalising this approach in way that is practical to sports injury scientists and clinicians. Therefore, our objective was to use a computational modelling method and develop a dynamic simulation in sports injury research. Agent-based modelling (ABM) was used to model the occurrence of sports injury in a synthetic athlete population. The ABM was developed based on sports injury causal frameworks and was applied in the context of distance running-related injury (RRI). Using the acute:chronic workload ratio (ACWR), we simulated the dynamic relationship between changes in weekly running distance and RRI through the manipulation of various 'athlete management tools'. The findings confirmed that building weekly running distances over time, even within the reported ACWR 'sweet spot', will eventually result in RRI as athletes reach and surpass their individual physical workload limits. Introducing training-related error into the simulation and the modelling of a 'hard ceiling' dynamic resulted in a higher RRI incidence proportion across the population at higher absolute workloads. The presented simulation offers a practical starting point to further apply more sophisticated computational models that can account for the complex nature of sports injury aetiology. Alongside traditional forms of scientific inquiry, the use of ABM and other simulation-based techniques could be considered as a complementary and alternative methodological approach in sports injury research. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Virtual expansion of the technical vision system for smart vehicles based on multi-agent cooperation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krapukhina, Nina; Senchenko, Roman; Kamenov, Nikolay

2017-12-01

Road safety and driving in dense traffic flows poses some challenges in receiving information about surrounding moving object, some of which can be in the vehicle's blind spot. This work suggests an approach to virtual monitoring of the objects in a current road scene via a system with a multitude of cooperating smart vehicles exchanging information. It also describes the intellectual agent model, and provides methods and algorithms of identifying and evaluating various characteristics of moving objects in video flow. Authors also suggest ways for integrating the information from the technical vision system into the model with further expansion of virtual monitoring for the system's objects. Implementation of this approach can help to expand the virtual field of view for a technical vision system.

An agent-based simulation combined with group decision-making technique for improving the performance of an emergency department.

PubMed

Yousefi, M; Ferreira, R P M

2017-03-30

This study presents an agent-based simulation modeling in an emergency department. In a traditional approach, a supervisor (or a manager) allocates the resources (receptionist, nurses, doctors, etc.) to different sections based on personal experience or by using decision-support tools. In this study, each staff agent took part in the process of allocating resources based on their observation in their respective sections, which gave the system the advantage of utilizing all the available human resources during the workday by being allocated to a different section. In this simulation, unlike previous studies, all staff agents took part in the decision-making process to re-allocate the resources in the emergency department. The simulation modeled the behavior of patients, receptionists, triage nurses, emergency room nurses and doctors. Patients were able to decide whether to stay in the system or leave the department at any stage of treatment. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, 6 different scenarios were introduced. In each scenario, various key performance indicators were investigated before and after applying the group decision-making. The outputs of each simulation were number of deaths, number of patients who leave the emergency department without being attended, length of stay, waiting time and total number of discharged patients from the emergency department. Applying the self-organizing approach in the simulation showed an average of 12.7 and 14.4% decrease in total waiting time and number of patients who left without being seen, respectively. The results showed an average increase of 11.5% in total number of discharged patients from emergency department.

An agent-based simulation combined with group decision-making technique for improving the performance of an emergency department

PubMed Central

Yousefi, M.; Ferreira, R.P.M.

2017-01-01

This study presents an agent-based simulation modeling in an emergency department. In a traditional approach, a supervisor (or a manager) allocates the resources (receptionist, nurses, doctors, etc.) to different sections based on personal experience or by using decision-support tools. In this study, each staff agent took part in the process of allocating resources based on their observation in their respective sections, which gave the system the advantage of utilizing all the available human resources during the workday by being allocated to a different section. In this simulation, unlike previous studies, all staff agents took part in the decision-making process to re-allocate the resources in the emergency department. The simulation modeled the behavior of patients, receptionists, triage nurses, emergency room nurses and doctors. Patients were able to decide whether to stay in the system or leave the department at any stage of treatment. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, 6 different scenarios were introduced. In each scenario, various key performance indicators were investigated before and after applying the group decision-making. The outputs of each simulation were number of deaths, number of patients who leave the emergency department without being attended, length of stay, waiting time and total number of discharged patients from the emergency department. Applying the self-organizing approach in the simulation showed an average of 12.7 and 14.4% decrease in total waiting time and number of patients who left without being seen, respectively. The results showed an average increase of 11.5% in total number of discharged patients from emergency department. PMID:28380196

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hao, He; Lian, Jianming; Kalsi, Karanjit

The HVAC (Heating, Ventilation, and Air- Conditioning) system of commercial buildings is a complex system with a large number of dynamically interacting components. In particular, the thermal dynamics of each zone are coupled with those of the neighboring zones. In this paper, we study a multi-agent based approach to model and control commercial building HVAC system for providing grid services. In the multi-agent system (MAS), individual zones are modeled as agents that can communicate, interact, and negotiate with one another to achieve a common objective. We first propose a distributed characterization method on the aggregated airflow (and thus fan power)more » flexibility that the HVAC system can provide to the ancillary service market. Then, we propose a Nash-bargaining based airflow allocation strategy to track a dispatch signal (that is within the offered flexibility limit) while respecting the preference and flexibility of individual zones. Moreover, we devise a distributed algorithm to obtain the Nash bargaining solution via dual decomposition and average consensus. Numerical simulations illustrate that the proposed distributed protocols are much more scalable than the centralized approaches especially when the system becomes larger and more complex.« less

Understanding agent-based models of financial markets: A bottom-up approach based on order parameters and phase diagrams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lye, Ribin; Tan, James Peng Lung; Cheong, Siew Ann

2012-11-01

We describe a bottom-up framework, based on the identification of appropriate order parameters and determination of phase diagrams, for understanding progressively refined agent-based models and simulations of financial markets. We illustrate this framework by starting with a deterministic toy model, whereby N independent traders buy and sell M stocks through an order book that acts as a clearing house. The price of a stock increases whenever it is bought and decreases whenever it is sold. Price changes are updated by the order book before the next transaction takes place. In this deterministic model, all traders based their buy decisions on a call utility function, and all their sell decisions on a put utility function. We then make the agent-based model more realistic, by either having a fraction fb of traders buy a random stock on offer, or a fraction fs of traders sell a random stock in their portfolio. Based on our simulations, we find that it is possible to identify useful order parameters from the steady-state price distributions of all three models. Using these order parameters as a guide, we find three phases: (i) the dead market; (ii) the boom market; and (iii) the jammed market in the phase diagram of the deterministic model. Comparing the phase diagrams of the stochastic models against that of the deterministic model, we realize that the primary effect of stochasticity is to eliminate the dead market phase.

In vitro analysis of polyurethane foam as a topical hemostatic agent.

PubMed

Broekema, Ferdinand I; van Oeveren, Wim; Zuidema, Johan; Visscher, Susan H; Bos, Rudolf R M

2011-04-01

Topical hemostatic agents can be used to treat problematic bleedings in patients who undergo surgery. Widely used are the collagen- and gelatin-based hemostats. This study aimed to develop a fully synthetic, biodegradable hemostatic agent to avoid exposure to animal antigens. In this in vitro study the suitability of different newly developed polyurethane-based foams as a hemostatic agent has been evaluated and compared to commonly used agents. An experimental in vitro test model was used in which human blood flowed through the test material. Different modified polyurethane foams were compared to collagen and gelatin. The best coagulation was achieved with collagen. The results of the polyurethane foam improved significantly by increasing the amount of polyethylene glycol. Therefore, the increase of the PEG concentration seems a promising approach. Additional in vivo studies will have to be implemented to assess the application of polyurethane foam as a topical hemostatic agent.

The Impacts of Information-Sharing Mechanisms on Spatial Market Formation Based on Agent-Based Modeling

PubMed Central

Li, Qianqian; Yang, Tao; Zhao, Erbo; Xia, Xing’ang; Han, Zhangang

2013-01-01

There has been an increasing interest in the geographic aspects of economic development, exemplified by P. Krugman’s logical analysis. We show in this paper that the geographic aspects of economic development can be modeled using multi-agent systems that incorporate multiple underlying factors. The extent of information sharing is assumed to be a driving force that leads to economic geographic heterogeneity across locations without geographic advantages or disadvantages. We propose an agent-based market model that considers a spectrum of different information-sharing mechanisms: no information sharing, information sharing among friends and pheromone-like information sharing. Finally, we build a unified model that accommodates all three of these information-sharing mechanisms based on the number of friends who can share information. We find that the no information-sharing model does not yield large economic zones, and more information sharing can give rise to a power-law distribution of market size that corresponds to the stylized fact of city size and firm size distributions. The simulations show that this model is robust. This paper provides an alternative approach to studying economic geographic development, and this model could be used as a test bed to validate the detailed assumptions that regulate real economic agglomeration. PMID:23484007

Combining Bayesian Networks and Agent Based Modeling to develop a decision-support model in Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nong, Bao Anh; Ertsen, Maurits; Schoups, Gerrit

2016-04-01

Complexity and uncertainty in natural resources management have been focus themes in recent years. Within these debates, with the aim to define an approach feasible for water management practice, we are developing an integrated conceptual modeling framework for simulating decision-making processes of citizens, in our case in the Day river area, Vietnam. The model combines Bayesian Networks (BNs) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). BNs are able to combine both qualitative data from consultants / experts / stakeholders, and quantitative data from observations on different phenomena or outcomes from other models. Further strengths of BNs are that the relationship between variables in the system is presented in a graphical interface, and that components of uncertainty are explicitly related to their probabilistic dependencies. A disadvantage is that BNs cannot easily identify the feedback of agents in the system once changes appear. Hence, ABM was adopted to represent the reaction among stakeholders under changes. The modeling framework is developed as an attempt to gain better understanding about citizen's behavior and factors influencing their decisions in order to reduce uncertainty in the implementation of water management policy.

Simulating Spatial Growth Patterns in Developing Countries: A Case of Shama in the Western Region of Ghana.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inkoom, J. N.; Nyarko, B. K.

2014-12-01

The integration of geographic information systems (GIS) and agent-based modelling (ABM) can be an efficient tool to improve spatial planning practices. This paper utilizes GIS and ABM approaches to simulate spatial growth patterns of settlement structures in Shama. A preliminary household survey on residential location decision-making choice served as the behavioural rule for household agents in the model. Physical environment properties of the model were extracted from a 2005 image implemented in NetLogo. The resulting growth pattern model was compared with empirical growth patterns to ascertain the model's accuracy. The paper establishes that the development of unplanned structures and its evolving structural pattern are a function of land price, proximity to economic centres, household economic status and location decision-making patterns. The application of the proposed model underlines its potential for integration into urban planning policies and practices, and for understanding residential decision-making processes in emerging cities in developing countries. Key Words: GIS; Agent-based modelling; Growth patterns; NetLogo; Location decision making; Computational Intelligence.

A hybrid computational model to explore the topological characteristics of epithelial tissues.

PubMed

González-Valverde, Ismael; García-Aznar, José Manuel

2017-11-01

Epithelial tissues show a particular topology where cells resemble a polygon-like shape, but some biological processes can alter this tissue topology. During cell proliferation, mitotic cell dilation deforms the tissue and modifies the tissue topology. Additionally, cells are reorganized in the epithelial layer and these rearrangements also alter the polygon distribution. We present here a computer-based hybrid framework focused on the simulation of epithelial layer dynamics that combines discrete and continuum numerical models. In this framework, we consider topological and mechanical aspects of the epithelial tissue. Individual cells in the tissue are simulated by an off-lattice agent-based model, which keeps the information of each cell. In addition, we model the cell-cell interaction forces and the cell cycle. Otherwise, we simulate the passive mechanical behaviour of the cell monolayer using a material that approximates the mechanical properties of the cell. This continuum approach is solved by the finite element method, which uses a dynamic mesh generated by the triangulation of cell polygons. Forces generated by cell-cell interaction in the agent-based model are also applied on the finite element mesh. Cell movement in the agent-based model is driven by the displacements obtained from the deformed finite element mesh of the continuum mechanical approach. We successfully compare the results of our simulations with some experiments about the topology of proliferating epithelial tissues in Drosophila. Our framework is able to model the emergent behaviour of the cell monolayer that is due to local cell-cell interactions, which have a direct influence on the dynamics of the epithelial tissue. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Integrated Modeling of the Human-Natural System to Improve Local Water Management and Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutowski, W. J., Jr.; Dziubanski, D.; Franz, K.; Goodwin, J.; Rehmann, C. R.; Simpkins, W. W.; Tesfastion, L.; Wanamaker, A. D.; Jie, Y.

2015-12-01

Communities across the world are experiencing the effects of unsustainable water management practices. Whether the problem is a lack of water, too much water, or water of degraded quality, finding acceptable solutions requires community-level efforts that integrate sound science with local needs and values. Our project develops both a software technology (agent-based hydrological modeling) and a social technology (a participatory approach to model development) that will allow communities to comprehensively address local water challenges. Using agent-based modeling (ABM), we are building a modeling system that includes a semi-distributed hydrologic process model coupled with agent (stakeholder) models. Information from the hydrologic model is conveyed to the agent models, which, along with economic information, determine appropriate agent actions that subsequently affect hydrology within the model. The iterative participatory modeling (IPM) process will assist with the continual development of the agent models. Further, IPM creates a learning environment in which all participants, including researchers, are co-exploring relevant data, possible scenarios and solutions, and viewpoints through continuous interactions. Our initial work focuses on the impact of flood mitigation and conservation efforts on reducing flooding in an urban area. We are applying all research elements above to the Squaw Creek watershed that flows through parts of four counties in central Iowa. The watershed offers many of the typical tensions encountered in Iowa, such as different perspectives on water management between upstream farmers and downstream urban areas, competition for various types of recreational services, and increasing absentee land ownership that may conflict with community values. Ultimately, climate change scenarios will be incorporated into the model to determine long term patterns that may develop within the social or natural system.

Optimization of space system development resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosmann, William J.; Sarkani, Shahram; Mazzuchi, Thomas

2013-06-01

NASA has had a decades-long problem with cost growth during the development of space science missions. Numerous agency-sponsored studies have produced average mission level cost growths ranging from 23% to 77%. A new study of 26 historical NASA Science instrument set developments using expert judgment to reallocate key development resources has an average cost growth of 73.77%. Twice in history, a barter-based mechanism has been used to reallocate key development resources during instrument development. The mean instrument set development cost growth was -1.55%. Performing a bivariate inference on the means of these two distributions, there is statistical evidence to support the claim that using a barter-based mechanism to reallocate key instrument development resources will result in a lower expected cost growth than using the expert judgment approach. Agent-based discrete event simulation is the natural way to model a trade environment. A NetLogo agent-based barter-based simulation of science instrument development was created. The agent-based model was validated against the Cassini historical example, as the starting and ending instrument development conditions are available. The resulting validated agent-based barter-based science instrument resource reallocation simulation was used to perform 300 instrument development simulations, using barter to reallocate development resources. The mean cost growth was -3.365%. A bivariate inference on the means was performed to determine that additional significant statistical evidence exists to support a claim that using barter-based resource reallocation will result in lower expected cost growth, with respect to the historical expert judgment approach. Barter-based key development resource reallocation should work on spacecraft development as well as it has worked on instrument development. A new study of 28 historical NASA science spacecraft developments has an average cost growth of 46.04%. As barter-based key development resource reallocation has never been tried in a spacecraft development, no historical results exist, and a simulation of using that approach must be developed. The instrument development simulation should be modified to account for spacecraft development market participant differences. The resulting agent-based barter-based spacecraft resource reallocation simulation would then be used to determine if significant statistical evidence exists to prove a claim that using barter-based resource reallocation will result in lower expected cost growth.

Optimization and Control of Agent-Based Models in Biology: A Perspective.

PubMed

An, G; Fitzpatrick, B G; Christley, S; Federico, P; Kanarek, A; Neilan, R Miller; Oremland, M; Salinas, R; Laubenbacher, R; Lenhart, S

2017-01-01

Agent-based models (ABMs) have become an increasingly important mode of inquiry for the life sciences. They are particularly valuable for systems that are not understood well enough to build an equation-based model. These advantages, however, are counterbalanced by the difficulty of analyzing and using ABMs, due to the lack of the type of mathematical tools available for more traditional models, which leaves simulation as the primary approach. As models become large, simulation becomes challenging. This paper proposes a novel approach to two mathematical aspects of ABMs, optimization and control, and it presents a few first steps outlining how one might carry out this approach. Rather than viewing the ABM as a model, it is to be viewed as a surrogate for the actual system. For a given optimization or control problem (which may change over time), the surrogate system is modeled instead, using data from the ABM and a modeling framework for which ready-made mathematical tools exist, such as differential equations, or for which control strategies can explored more easily. Once the optimization problem is solved for the model of the surrogate, it is then lifted to the surrogate and tested. The final step is to lift the optimization solution from the surrogate system to the actual system. This program is illustrated with published work, using two relatively simple ABMs as a demonstration, Sugarscape and a consumer-resource ABM. Specific techniques discussed include dimension reduction and approximation of an ABM by difference equations as well systems of PDEs, related to certain specific control objectives. This demonstration illustrates the very challenging mathematical problems that need to be solved before this approach can be realistically applied to complex and large ABMs, current and future. The paper outlines a research program to address them.

Agent based simulations in disease modeling Comment on "Towards a unified approach in the modeling of fibrosis: A review with research perspectives" by Martine Ben Amar and Carlo Bianca

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pappalardo, Francesco; Pennisi, Marzio

2016-07-01

Fibrosis represents a process where an excessive tissue formation in an organ follows the failure of a physiological reparative or reactive process. Mathematical and computational techniques may be used to improve the understanding of the mechanisms that lead to the disease and to test potential new treatments that may directly or indirectly have positive effects against fibrosis [1]. In this scenario, Ben Amar and Bianca [2] give us a broad picture of the existing mathematical and computational tools that have been used to model fibrotic processes at the molecular, cellular, and tissue levels. Among such techniques, agent based models (ABM) can give a valuable contribution in the understanding and better management of fibrotic diseases.

Computational Research on Mobile Pastoralism Using Agent-Based Modeling and Satellite Imagery.

PubMed

Sakamoto, Takuto

2016-01-01

Dryland pastoralism has long attracted considerable attention from researchers in diverse fields. However, rigorous formal study is made difficult by the high level of mobility of pastoralists as well as by the sizable spatio-temporal variability of their environment. This article presents a new computational approach for studying mobile pastoralism that overcomes these issues. Combining multi-temporal satellite images and agent-based modeling allows a comprehensive examination of pastoral resource access over a realistic dryland landscape with unpredictable ecological dynamics. The article demonstrates the analytical potential of this approach through its application to mobile pastoralism in northeast Nigeria. Employing more than 100 satellite images of the area, extensive simulations are conducted under a wide array of circumstances, including different land-use constraints. The simulation results reveal complex dependencies of pastoral resource access on these circumstances along with persistent patterns of seasonal land use observed at the macro level.

Computational Research on Mobile Pastoralism Using Agent-Based Modeling and Satellite Imagery

PubMed Central

Sakamoto, Takuto

2016-01-01

Dryland pastoralism has long attracted considerable attention from researchers in diverse fields. However, rigorous formal study is made difficult by the high level of mobility of pastoralists as well as by the sizable spatio-temporal variability of their environment. This article presents a new computational approach for studying mobile pastoralism that overcomes these issues. Combining multi-temporal satellite images and agent-based modeling allows a comprehensive examination of pastoral resource access over a realistic dryland landscape with unpredictable ecological dynamics. The article demonstrates the analytical potential of this approach through its application to mobile pastoralism in northeast Nigeria. Employing more than 100 satellite images of the area, extensive simulations are conducted under a wide array of circumstances, including different land-use constraints. The simulation results reveal complex dependencies of pastoral resource access on these circumstances along with persistent patterns of seasonal land use observed at the macro level. PMID:26963526

Implications of Preparing School Administrators for Knowledge Work Organizations: A Case Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mulkeen, Thomas A.; Cooper, Bruce S.

1992-01-01

The Executive Leadership Program at Fordham University presents a model for practicing school administrators' continuing education that reflects a changing society and schools' changing needs. The program is based on four innovations: an intellectual/change agent approach; a clinical, field-based research experience; an instructional agenda…

Projective simulation for artificial intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briegel, Hans J.; de Las Cuevas, Gemma

2012-05-01

We propose a model of a learning agent whose interaction with the environment is governed by a simulation-based projection, which allows the agent to project itself into future situations before it takes real action. Projective simulation is based on a random walk through a network of clips, which are elementary patches of episodic memory. The network of clips changes dynamically, both due to new perceptual input and due to certain compositional principles of the simulation process. During simulation, the clips are screened for specific features which trigger factual action of the agent. The scheme is different from other, computational, notions of simulation, and it provides a new element in an embodied cognitive science approach to intelligent action and learning. Our model provides a natural route for generalization to quantum-mechanical operation and connects the fields of reinforcement learning and quantum computation.

Projective simulation for artificial intelligence

PubMed Central

Briegel, Hans J.; De las Cuevas, Gemma

2012-01-01

We propose a model of a learning agent whose interaction with the environment is governed by a simulation-based projection, which allows the agent to project itself into future situations before it takes real action. Projective simulation is based on a random walk through a network of clips, which are elementary patches of episodic memory. The network of clips changes dynamically, both due to new perceptual input and due to certain compositional principles of the simulation process. During simulation, the clips are screened for specific features which trigger factual action of the agent. The scheme is different from other, computational, notions of simulation, and it provides a new element in an embodied cognitive science approach to intelligent action and learning. Our model provides a natural route for generalization to quantum-mechanical operation and connects the fields of reinforcement learning and quantum computation. PMID:22590690

Agent-based modelling of consumer energy choices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, Varun; Henry, Adam Douglas

2016-06-01

Strategies to mitigate global climate change should be grounded in a rigorous understanding of energy systems, particularly the factors that drive energy demand. Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a powerful tool for representing the complexities of energy demand, such as social interactions and spatial constraints. Unlike other approaches for modelling energy demand, ABM is not limited to studying perfectly rational agents or to abstracting micro details into system-level equations. Instead, ABM provides the ability to represent behaviours of energy consumers -- such as individual households -- using a range of theories, and to examine how the interaction of heterogeneous agents at the micro-level produces macro outcomes of importance to the global climate, such as the adoption of low-carbon behaviours and technologies over space and time. We provide an overview of ABM work in the area of consumer energy choices, with a focus on identifying specific ways in which ABM can improve understanding of both fundamental scientific and applied aspects of the demand side of energy to aid the design of better policies and programmes. Future research needs for improving the practice of ABM to better understand energy demand are also discussed.

Fractal markets: Liquidity and investors on different time horizons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Da-Ye; Nishimura, Yusaku; Men, Ming

2014-08-01

In this paper, we propose a new agent-based model to study the source of liquidity and the “emergent” phenomenon in financial market with fractal structure. The model rests on fractal market hypothesis and agents with different time horizons of investments. What is interesting is that though the agent-based model reveals that the interaction between these heterogeneous agents affects the stability and liquidity of the financial market the real world market lacks detailed data to bring it to light since it is difficult to identify and distinguish the investors with different time horizons in the empirical approach. results show that in a relatively short period of time fractal market provides liquidity from investors with different horizons and the market gains stability when the market structure changes from uniformity to diversification. In the real world the fractal structure with the finite of horizons can only stabilize the market within limits. With the finite maximum horizons, the greater diversity of the investors and the fractal structure will not necessarily bring more stability to the market which might come with greater fluctuation in large time scale.

Agent-based modeling approach of immune defense against spores of opportunistic human pathogenic fungi.

PubMed

Tokarski, Christian; Hummert, Sabine; Mech, Franziska; Figge, Marc Thilo; Germerodt, Sebastian; Schroeter, Anja; Schuster, Stefan

2012-01-01

Opportunistic human pathogenic fungi like the ubiquitous fungus Aspergillus fumigatus are a major threat to immunocompromised patients. An impaired immune system renders the body vulnerable to invasive mycoses that often lead to the death of the patient. While the number of immunocompromised patients is rising with medical progress, the process, and dynamics of defense against invaded and ready to germinate fungal conidia are still insufficiently understood. Besides macrophages, neutrophil granulocytes form an important line of defense in that they clear conidia. Live imaging shows the interaction of those phagocytes and conidia as a dynamic process of touching, dragging, and phagocytosis. To unravel strategies of phagocytes on the hunt for conidia an agent-based modeling approach is used, implemented in NetLogo. Different modes of movement of phagocytes are tested regarding their clearing efficiency: random walk, short-term persistence in their recent direction, chemotaxis of chemokines excreted by conidia, and communication between phagocytes. While the short-term persistence hunting strategy turned out to be superior to the simple random walk, following a gradient of chemokines released by conidial agents is even better. The advantage of communication between neutrophilic agents showed a strong dependency on the spatial scale of the focused area and the distribution of the pathogens.

Development and application of a real-time testbed for multiagent system interoperability: A case study on hierarchical microgrid control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cintuglu, Mehmet Hazar; Youssef, Tarek; Mohammed, Osama A.

This article presents the development and application of a real-time testbed for multiagent system interoperability. As utility independent private microgrids are installed constantly, standardized interoperability frameworks are required to define behavioral models of the individual agents for expandability and plug-and-play operation. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive hybrid agent framework combining the foundation for intelligent physical agents (FIPA), IEC 61850, and data distribution service (DDS) standards. The IEC 61850 logical node concept is extended using FIPA based agent communication language (ACL) with application specific attributes and deliberative behavior modeling capability. The DDS middleware is adopted to enable a real-timemore » publisher-subscriber interoperability mechanism between platforms. The proposed multi-agent framework was validated in a laboratory based testbed involving developed intelligent electronic device (IED) prototypes and actual microgrid setups. Experimental results were demonstrated for both decentralized and distributed control approaches. Secondary and tertiary control levels of a microgrid were demonstrated for decentralized hierarchical control case study. A consensus-based economic dispatch case study was demonstrated as a distributed control example. Finally, it was shown that the developed agent platform is industrially applicable for actual smart grid field deployment.« less

Development and application of a real-time testbed for multiagent system interoperability: A case study on hierarchical microgrid control

DOE PAGES

Cintuglu, Mehmet Hazar; Youssef, Tarek; Mohammed, Osama A.

2016-08-10

This article presents the development and application of a real-time testbed for multiagent system interoperability. As utility independent private microgrids are installed constantly, standardized interoperability frameworks are required to define behavioral models of the individual agents for expandability and plug-and-play operation. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive hybrid agent framework combining the foundation for intelligent physical agents (FIPA), IEC 61850, and data distribution service (DDS) standards. The IEC 61850 logical node concept is extended using FIPA based agent communication language (ACL) with application specific attributes and deliberative behavior modeling capability. The DDS middleware is adopted to enable a real-timemore » publisher-subscriber interoperability mechanism between platforms. The proposed multi-agent framework was validated in a laboratory based testbed involving developed intelligent electronic device (IED) prototypes and actual microgrid setups. Experimental results were demonstrated for both decentralized and distributed control approaches. Secondary and tertiary control levels of a microgrid were demonstrated for decentralized hierarchical control case study. A consensus-based economic dispatch case study was demonstrated as a distributed control example. Finally, it was shown that the developed agent platform is industrially applicable for actual smart grid field deployment.« less

Using Improved Equation of State to Model Simultaneous Nucleation and Bubble Growth in Thermoplastic Foams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Irfan; Costeux, Stephane; Adrian, David; Cristancho, Diego

2013-11-01

Due to environmental regulations carbon-dioxide (CO2) is increasingly being used to replace traditional blowing agents in thermoplastic foams. CO2 is dissolved in the polymer matrix under supercritical conditions. In order to predict the effect of process parameters on foam properties using numerical modeling, the P-V-T relationship of the blowing agents should accurately be represented at the supercritical state. Previous studies in the area of foam modeling have all used ideal gas equation of state to predict the behavior of the blowing agent. In this work the Peng-Robinson equation of state is being used to model the blowing agent during its diffusion into the growing bubble. The model is based on the popular ``Influence Volume Approach,'' which assumes a growing boundary layer with depleted blowing agent surrounds each bubble. Classical nucleation theory is used to predict the rate of nucleation of bubbles. By solving the mass balance, momentum balance and species conservation equations for each bubble, the model is capable of predicting average bubble size, bubble size distribution and bulk porosity. The effect of the improved model on the bubble growth and foam properties are discussed.

Multi-Agent-Based Simulation of a Complex Ecosystem of Mental Health Care.

PubMed

Kalton, Alan; Falconer, Erin; Docherty, John; Alevras, Dimitris; Brann, David; Johnson, Kyle

2016-02-01

This paper discusses the creation of an Agent-Based Simulation that modeled the introduction of care coordination capabilities into a complex system of care for patients with Serious and Persistent Mental Illness. The model describes the engagement between patients and the medical, social and criminal justice services they interact with in a complex ecosystem of care. We outline the challenges involved in developing the model, including process mapping and the collection and synthesis of data to support parametric estimates, and describe the controls built into the model to support analysis of potential changes to the system. We also describe the approach taken to calibrate the model to an observable level of system performance. Preliminary results from application of the simulation are provided to demonstrate how it can provide insights into potential improvements deriving from introduction of care coordination technology.

Analysis of Food Hub Commerce and Participation Using Agent-Based Modeling: Integrating Financial and Social Drivers.

PubMed

Krejci, Caroline C; Stone, Richard T; Dorneich, Michael C; Gilbert, Stephen B

2016-02-01

Factors influencing long-term viability of an intermediated regional food supply network (food hub) were modeled using agent-based modeling techniques informed by interview data gathered from food hub participants. Previous analyses of food hub dynamics focused primarily on financial drivers rather than social factors and have not used mathematical models. Based on qualitative and quantitative data gathered from 22 customers and 11 vendors at a midwestern food hub, an agent-based model (ABM) was created with distinct consumer personas characterizing the range of consumer priorities. A comparison study determined if the ABM behaved differently than a model based on traditional economic assumptions. Further simulation studies assessed the effect of changes in parameters, such as producer reliability and the consumer profiles, on long-term food hub sustainability. The persona-based ABM model produced different and more resilient results than the more traditional way of modeling consumers. Reduced producer reliability significantly reduced trade; in some instances, a modest reduction in reliability threatened the sustainability of the system. Finally, a modest increase in price-driven consumers at the outset of the simulation quickly resulted in those consumers becoming a majority of the overall customer base. Results suggest that social factors, such as desire to support the community, can be more important than financial factors. An ABM of food hub dynamics, based on human factors data gathered from the field, can be a useful tool for policy decisions. Similar approaches can be used for modeling customer dynamics with other sustainable organizations. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Multiobjective Decision Making Policies and Coordination Mechanisms in Hierarchical Organizations: Results of an Agent-Based Simulation

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

This paper analyses how different coordination modes and different multiobjective decision making approaches interfere with each other in hierarchical organizations. The investigation is based on an agent-based simulation. We apply a modified NK-model in which we map multiobjective decision making as adaptive walk on multiple performance landscapes, whereby each landscape represents one objective. We find that the impact of the coordination mode on the performance and the speed of performance improvement is critically affected by the selected multiobjective decision making approach. In certain setups, the performances achieved with the more complex multiobjective decision making approaches turn out to be less sensitive to the coordination mode than the performances achieved with the less complex multiobjective decision making approaches. Furthermore, we present results on the impact of the nature of interactions among decisions on the achieved performance in multiobjective setups. Our results give guidance on how to control the performance contribution of objectives to overall performance and answer the question how effective certain multiobjective decision making approaches perform under certain circumstances (coordination mode and interdependencies among decisions). PMID:25152926

Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models - an overview of techniques and approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller-Hansen, Finn; Schlüter, Maja; Mäs, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Heitzig, Jobst

2017-11-01

Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their goals, behavioral options, and decision rules, as well as modeling decisions regarding human social interactions and the aggregation of individuals' behavior. Here, we review existing modeling approaches and techniques from various disciplines and schools of thought dealing with human behavior at different levels of decision making. We demonstrate modelers' often vast degrees of freedom but also seek to make modelers aware of the often crucial consequences of seemingly innocent modeling assumptions. After discussing which socioeconomic units are potentially important for ESMs, we compare models of individual decision making that correspond to alternative behavioral theories and that make diverse modeling assumptions about individuals' preferences, beliefs, decision rules, and foresight. We review approaches to model social interaction, covering game theoretic frameworks, models of social influence, and network models. Finally, we discuss approaches to studying how the behavior of individuals, groups, and organizations can aggregate to complex collective phenomena, discussing agent-based, statistical, and representative-agent modeling and economic macro-dynamics. We illustrate the main ingredients of modeling techniques with examples from land-use dynamics as one of the main drivers of environmental change bridging local to global scales.

Bone as an effect compartment : models for uptake and release of drugs.

PubMed

Stepensky, David; Kleinberg, Lilach; Hoffman, Amnon

2003-01-01

"Bone-seeking agents" are drugs characterised by high affinity for bone, and are disposed in bone for prolonged periods of time while maintaining remarkably low systemic concentrations. As a consequence, the bone becomes a reservoir for bone-seeking agents, and a site of both desirable and adverse effects, depending on the pharmacological activities of the specific agent. For some agents, significant systemic effects may also be produced following their prolonged release from bone, a process that is governed mostly by the rate of bone remodelling. This review covers the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic features of bone-seeking agents with different pharmacological properties, including drugs (bisphosphonates, drug-bisphosphonate conjugates, radiopharmaceuticals and fluoride), bone markers (tetracycline, bone imaging agents) and toxins (lead, chromium, aluminium). In addition, drugs that do not possess bone-seeking properties but are used for therapy of bone diseases (such as antibacterials for treatment of osteomyelitis) are discussed, along with targeting of these drugs to the bone by conjugation to bone-seeking agents, local delivery systems, and other approaches. The pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic behaviour of bone-seeking agents is extremely complex due to heterogeneity in bone morphology and physiology. This complexity, accompanied by difficulties in human bone research caused by ethical and other limitations, gave rise to modelling approaches to study bone drug disposition. This review describes the pharmacokinetic models that have been proposed to describe the pharmacokinetic behaviour of bone-seeking agents and predict bone concentrations of these agents for different doses and patient populations. Models of different types (compartmental and physiologically based) and of different complexity have been applied, but their relevance to drug effects in the bone tissue is limited since they describe the behaviour of the "average" drug molecule. Understanding of the cellular and molecular processes responsible for the heterogeneity of bone tissue will provide better comprehension of the influence of microenvironment on drug bone disposition and the resulting pharmacological response.

Can longitudinal generalized estimating equation models distinguish network influence and homophily? An agent-based modeling approach to measurement characteristics.

PubMed

Sauser Zachrison, Kori; Iwashyna, Theodore J; Gebremariam, Achamyeleh; Hutchins, Meghan; Lee, Joyce M

2016-12-28

Connected individuals (or nodes) in a network are more likely to be similar than two randomly selected nodes due to homophily and/or network influence. Distinguishing between these two influences is an important goal in network analysis, and generalized estimating equation (GEE) analyses of longitudinal dyadic network data are an attractive approach. It is not known to what extent such regressions can accurately extract underlying data generating processes. Therefore our primary objective is to determine to what extent, and under what conditions, does the GEE-approach recreate the actual dynamics in an agent-based model. We generated simulated cohorts with pre-specified network characteristics and attachments in both static and dynamic networks, and we varied the presence of homophily and network influence. We then used statistical regression and examined the GEE model performance in each cohort to determine whether the model was able to detect the presence of homophily and network influence. In cohorts with both static and dynamic networks, we find that the GEE models have excellent sensitivity and reasonable specificity for determining the presence or absence of network influence, but little ability to distinguish whether or not homophily is present. The GEE models are a valuable tool to examine for the presence of network influence in longitudinal data, but are quite limited with respect to homophily.

Numerical Modeling of Nanocellular Foams Using Classical Nucleation Theory and Influence Volume Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Irfan; Costeux, Stephane; Bunker, Shana; Moore, Jonathan; Kar, Kishore

2012-11-01

Nanocellular porous materials present unusual optical, dielectric, thermal and mechanical properties and are thus envisioned to find use in a variety of applications. Thermoplastic polymeric foams show considerable promise in achieving these properties. However, there are still considerable challenges in achieving nanocellular foams with densities as low as conventional foams. Lack of in-depth understanding of the effect of process parameters and physical properties on the foaming process is a major obstacle. A numerical model has been developed to simulate the simultaneous nucleation and bubble growth during depressurization of thermoplastic polymers saturated with supercritical blowing agents. The model is based on the popular ``Influence Volume Approach,'' which assumes a growing boundary layer with depleted blowing agent surrounds each bubble. Classical nucleation theory is used to predict the rate of nucleation of bubbles. By solving the mass balance, momentum balance and species conservation equations for each bubble, the model is capable of predicting average bubble size, bubble size distribution and bulk porosity. The model is modified to include mechanisms for Joule-Thompson cooling during depressurization and secondary foaming. Simulation results for polymer with and without nucleating agents will be discussed and compared with experimental data.

Tools and techniques for developing policies for complex and uncertain systems.

PubMed

Bankes, Steven C

2002-05-14

Agent-based models (ABM) are examples of complex adaptive systems, which can be characterized as those systems for which no model less complex than the system itself can accurately predict in detail how the system will behave at future times. Consequently, the standard tools of policy analysis, based as they are on devising policies that perform well on some best estimate model of the system, cannot be reliably used for ABM. This paper argues that policy analysis by using ABM requires an alternative approach to decision theory. The general characteristics of such an approach are described, and examples are provided of its application to policy analysis.

From actors to agents in socio-ecological systems models

PubMed Central

Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Robinson, D. T.; Murray-Rust, D.

2012-01-01

The ecosystem service concept has emphasized the role of people within socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this paper, we review and discuss alternative ways of representing people, their behaviour and decision-making processes in SES models using an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach. We also explore how ABM can be empirically grounded using information from social survey. The capacity for ABM to be generalized beyond case studies represents a crucial next step in modelling SESs, although this comes with considerable intellectual challenges. We propose the notion of human functional types, as an analogy of plant functional types, to support the expansion (scaling) of ABM to larger areas. The expansion of scope also implies the need to represent institutional agents in SES models in order to account for alternative governance structures and policy feedbacks. Further development in the coupling of human-environment systems would contribute considerably to better application and use of the ecosystem service concept. PMID:22144388

From actors to agents in socio-ecological systems models.

PubMed

Rounsevell, M D A; Robinson, D T; Murray-Rust, D

2012-01-19

The ecosystem service concept has emphasized the role of people within socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this paper, we review and discuss alternative ways of representing people, their behaviour and decision-making processes in SES models using an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach. We also explore how ABM can be empirically grounded using information from social survey. The capacity for ABM to be generalized beyond case studies represents a crucial next step in modelling SESs, although this comes with considerable intellectual challenges. We propose the notion of human functional types, as an analogy of plant functional types, to support the expansion (scaling) of ABM to larger areas. The expansion of scope also implies the need to represent institutional agents in SES models in order to account for alternative governance structures and policy feedbacks. Further development in the coupling of human-environment systems would contribute considerably to better application and use of the ecosystem service concept.

An atom is known by the company it keeps: Content, representation and pedagogy within the epistemic revolution of the complexity sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blikstein, Paulo

The goal of this dissertation is to explore relations between content, representation, and pedagogy, so as to understand the impact of the nascent field of complexity sciences on science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) learning. Wilensky & Papert coined the term "structurations" to express the relationship between knowledge and its representational infrastructure. A change from one representational infrastructure to another they call a "restructuration." The complexity sciences have introduced a novel and powerful structuration: agent-based modeling. In contradistinction to traditional mathematical modeling, which relies on equational descriptions of macroscopic properties of systems, agent-based modeling focuses on a few archetypical micro-behaviors of "agents" to explain emergent macro-behaviors of the agent collective. Specifically, this dissertation is about a series of studies of undergraduate students' learning of materials science, in which two structurations are compared (equational and agent-based), consisting of both design research and empirical evaluation. I have designed MaterialSim, a constructionist suite of computer models, supporting materials and learning activities designed within the approach of agent-based modeling, and over four years conducted an empirical inves3 tigation of an undergraduate materials science course. The dissertation is comprised of three studies: Study 1 - diagnosis . I investigate current representational and pedagogical practices in engineering classrooms. Study 2 - laboratory studies. I investigate the cognition of students engaging in scientific inquiry through programming their own scientific models. Study 3 - classroom implementation. I investigate the characteristics, advantages, and trajectories of scientific content knowledge that is articulated in epistemic forms and representational infrastructures unique to complexity sciences, as well as the feasibility of the integration of constructionist, agent-based learning environments in engineering classrooms. Data sources include classroom observations, interviews, videotaped sessions of model-building, questionnaires, analysis of computer-generated logfiles, and quantitative and qualitative analysis of artifacts. Results shows that (1) current representational and pedagogical practices in engineering classrooms were not up to the challenge of the complex content being taught, (2) by building their own scientific models, students developed a deeper understanding of core scientific concepts, and learned how to better identify unifying principles and behaviors in materials science, and (3) programming computer models was feasible within a regular engineering classroom.

Examining the Relationships Between Education, Social Networks and Democratic Support With ABM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drucker, Nick; Campbell, Kenyth

2011-01-01

This paper introduces an agent-based model that explores the relationships between education, social networks, and support for democratic ideals. This study examines two factors thai affect democratic support, education, and social networks. Current theory concerning these two variables suggests that positive relationships exist between education and democratic support and between social networks and the spread of ideas. The model contains multiple variables of democratic support, two of which are evaluated through experimentation. The model allows individual entities within the system to make "decisions" about their democratic support independent of one another. The agent based approach also allows entities to utilize their social networks to spread ideas. Current theory supports experimentation results. In addion , these results show the model is capable of reproducing real world outcomes. This paper addresses the model creation process and the experimentation procedure, as well as future research avenues and potential shortcomings of the model

Model-free learning on robot kinematic chains using a nested multi-agent topology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karigiannis, John N.; Tzafestas, Costas S.

2016-11-01

This paper proposes a model-free learning scheme for the developmental acquisition of robot kinematic control and dexterous manipulation skills. The approach is based on a nested-hierarchical multi-agent architecture that intuitively encapsulates the topology of robot kinematic chains, where the activity of each independent degree-of-freedom (DOF) is finally mapped onto a distinct agent. Each one of those agents progressively evolves a local kinematic control strategy in a game-theoretic sense, that is, based on a partial (local) view of the whole system topology, which is incrementally updated through a recursive communication process according to the nested-hierarchical topology. Learning is thus approached not through demonstration and training but through an autonomous self-exploration process. A fuzzy reinforcement learning scheme is employed within each agent to enable efficient exploration in a continuous state-action domain. This paper constitutes in fact a proof of concept, demonstrating that global dexterous manipulation skills can indeed evolve through such a distributed iterative learning of local agent sensorimotor mappings. The main motivation behind the development of such an incremental multi-agent topology is to enhance system modularity, to facilitate extensibility to more complex problem domains and to improve robustness with respect to structural variations including unpredictable internal failures. These attributes of the proposed system are assessed in this paper through numerical experiments in different robot manipulation task scenarios, involving both single and multi-robot kinematic chains. The generalisation capacity of the learning scheme is experimentally assessed and robustness properties of the multi-agent system are also evaluated with respect to unpredictable variations in the kinematic topology. Furthermore, these numerical experiments demonstrate the scalability properties of the proposed nested-hierarchical architecture, where new agents can be recursively added in the hierarchy to encapsulate individual active DOFs. The results presented in this paper demonstrate the feasibility of such a distributed multi-agent control framework, showing that the solutions which emerge are plausible and near-optimal. Numerical efficiency and computational cost issues are also discussed.

Modelling and simulating decision processes of linked lives: An approach based on concurrent processes and stochastic race.

PubMed

Warnke, Tom; Reinhardt, Oliver; Klabunde, Anna; Willekens, Frans; Uhrmacher, Adelinde M

2017-10-01

Individuals' decision processes play a central role in understanding modern migration phenomena and other demographic processes. Their integration into agent-based computational demography depends largely on suitable support by a modelling language. We are developing the Modelling Language for Linked Lives (ML3) to describe the diverse decision processes of linked lives succinctly in continuous time. The context of individuals is modelled by networks the individual is part of, such as family ties and other social networks. Central concepts, such as behaviour conditional on agent attributes, age-dependent behaviour, and stochastic waiting times, are tightly integrated in the language. Thereby, alternative decisions are modelled by concurrent processes that compete by stochastic race. Using a migration model, we demonstrate how this allows for compact description of complex decisions, here based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We describe the challenges for the simulation algorithm posed by stochastic race between multiple concurrent complex decisions.

Green Power Grids: How Energy from Renewable Sources Affects Networks and Markets.

PubMed

Mureddu, Mario; Caldarelli, Guido; Chessa, Alessandro; Scala, Antonio; Damiano, Alfonso

2015-01-01

The increasing attention to environmental issues is forcing the implementation of novel energy models based on renewable sources. This is fundamentally changing the configuration of energy management and is introducing new problems that are only partly understood. In particular, renewable energies introduce fluctuations which cause an increased request for conventional energy sources to balance energy requests at short notice. In order to develop an effective usage of low-carbon sources, such fluctuations must be understood and tamed. In this paper we present a microscopic model for the description and for the forecast of short time fluctuations related to renewable sources in order to estimate their effects on the electricity market. To account for the inter-dependencies in the energy market and the physical power dispatch network, we use a statistical mechanics approach to sample stochastic perturbations in the power system and an agent based approach for the prediction of the market players' behavior. Our model is data-driven; it builds on one-day-ahead real market transactions in order to train agents' behaviour and allows us to deduce the market share of different energy sources. We benchmarked our approach on the Italian market, finding a good accordance with real data.

Quantifying cancer cell receptors with paired-agent fluorescent imaging: a novel method to account for tissue optical property effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadeghipour, Negar; Davis, Scott C.; Tichauer, Kenneth M.

2018-02-01

Dynamic fluorescence imaging approaches can be used to estimate the concentration of cell surface receptors in vivo. Kinetic models are used to generate the final estimation by taking the targeted imaging agent concentration as a function of time. However, tissue absorption and scattering properties cause the final readout signal to be on a different scale than the real fluorescent agent concentration. In paired-agent imaging approaches, simultaneous injection of a suitable control imaging agent with a targeted one can account for non-specific uptake and retention of the targeted agent. Additionally, the signal from the control agent can be a normalizing factor to correct for tissue optical property differences. In this study, the kinetic model used for paired-agent imaging analysis (i.e., simplified reference tissue model) is modified and tested in simulation and experimental data in a way that accounts for the scaling correction within the kinetic model fit to the data to ultimately extract an estimate of the targeted biomarker concentration.

An enhanced performance through agent-based secure approach for mobile ad hoc networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisen, Dhananjay; Sharma, Sanjeev

2018-01-01

This paper proposes an agent-based secure enhanced performance approach (AB-SEP) for mobile ad hoc network. In this approach, agent nodes are selected through optimal node reliability as a factor. This factor is calculated on the basis of node performance features such as degree difference, normalised distance value, energy level, mobility and optimal hello interval of node. After selection of agent nodes, a procedure of malicious behaviour detection is performed using fuzzy-based secure architecture (FBSA). To evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, comparative analysis is done with conventional schemes using performance parameters such as packet delivery ratio, throughput, total packet forwarding, network overhead, end-to-end delay and percentage of malicious detection.

The dynamic influence of human resources on evidence-based intervention sustainability and population outcomes: an agent-based modeling approach.

PubMed

McKay, Virginia R; Hoffer, Lee D; Combs, Todd B; Margaret Dolcini, M

2018-06-05

Sustaining evidence-based interventions (EBIs) is an ongoing challenge for dissemination and implementation science in public health and social services. Characterizing the relationship among human resource capacity within an agency and subsequent population outcomes is an important step to improving our understanding of how EBIs are sustained. Although human resource capacity and population outcomes are theoretically related, examining them over time within real-world experiments is difficult. Simulation approaches, especially agent-based models, offer advantages that complement existing methods. We used an agent-based model to examine the relationships among human resources, EBI delivery, and population outcomes by simulating provision of an EBI through a hypothetical agency and its staff. We used data from existing studies examining a widely implemented HIV prevention intervention to inform simulation design, calibration, and validity. Once we developed a baseline model, we used the model as a simulated laboratory by systematically varying three human resource variables: the number of staff positions, the staff turnover rate, and timing in training. We tracked the subsequent influence on EBI delivery and the level of population risk over time to describe the overall and dynamic relationships among these variables. Higher overall levels of human resource capacity at an agency (more positions) led to more extensive EBI delivery over time and lowered population risk earlier in time. In simulations representing the typical human resource investments, substantial influences on population risk were visible after approximately 2 years and peaked around 4 years. Human resources, especially staff positions, have an important impact on EBI sustainability and ultimately population health. A minimum level of human resources based on the context (e.g., size of the initial population and characteristics of the EBI) is likely needed for an EBI to have a meaningful impact on population outcomes. Furthermore, this model demonstrates how ABMs may be leveraged to inform research design and assess the impact of EBI sustainability in practice.

Settlement Dynamics and Hierarchy from Agent Decision-Making: a Method Derived from Entropy Maximization.

PubMed

Altaweel, Mark

2015-01-01

This paper presents an agent-based complex system simulation of settlement structure change using methods derived from entropy maximization modeling. The approach is applied to model the movement of people and goods in urban settings to study how settlement size hierarchy develops. While entropy maximization is well known for assessing settlement structure change over different spatiotemporal settings, approaches have rarely attempted to develop and apply this methodology to understand how individual and household decisions may affect settlement size distributions. A new method developed in this paper allows individual decision-makers to chose where to settle based on social-environmental factors, evaluate settlements based on geography and relative benefits, while retaining concepts derived from entropy maximization with settlement size affected by movement ability and site attractiveness feedbacks. To demonstrate the applicability of the theoretical and methodological approach, case study settlement patterns from the Middle Bronze (MBA) and Iron Ages (IA) in the Iraqi North Jazirah Survey (NJS) are used. Results indicate clear differences in settlement factors and household choices in simulations that lead to settlement size hierarchies comparable to the two evaluated periods. Conflict and socio-political cohesion, both their presence and absence, are suggested to have major roles in affecting the observed settlement hierarchy. More broadly, the model is made applicable for different empirically based settings, while being generalized to incorporate data uncertainty, making the model useful for understanding urbanism from top-down and bottom-up perspectives.

Geospatial Modelling Approach for 3d Urban Densification Developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koziatek, O.; Dragićević, S.; Li, S.

2016-06-01

With growing populations, economic pressures, and the need for sustainable practices, many urban regions are rapidly densifying developments in the vertical built dimension with mid- and high-rise buildings. The location of these buildings can be projected based on key factors that are attractive to urban planners, developers, and potential buyers. Current research in this area includes various modelling approaches, such as cellular automata and agent-based modelling, but the results are mostly linked to raster grids as the smallest spatial units that operate in two spatial dimensions. Therefore, the objective of this research is to develop a geospatial model that operates on irregular spatial tessellations to model mid- and high-rise buildings in three spatial dimensions (3D). The proposed model is based on the integration of GIS, fuzzy multi-criteria evaluation (MCE), and 3D GIS-based procedural modelling. Part of the City of Surrey, within the Metro Vancouver Region, Canada, has been used to present the simulations of the generated 3D building objects. The proposed 3D modelling approach was developed using ESRI's CityEngine software and the Computer Generated Architecture (CGA) language.

Dynamical systems approach to the study of a sociophysics agent-based model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Timpanaro, Andre M.; Prado, Carmen P. C.

2011-03-24

The Sznajd model is a Potts-like model that has been studied in the context of sociophysics [1,2](where spins are interpreted as opinions). In a recent work [3], we generalized the Sznajd model to include assymetric interactions between the spins (interpreted as biases towards opinions) and used dynamical systems techniques to tackle its mean-field version, given by the flow: {eta}{sub {sigma}} = {Sigma}{sub {sigma}}'{sup M} = 1{eta}{sub {sigma}}{eta}{sigma}'({eta}{sub {sigma}}{rho}{sigma}'{yields}{sigma}-{sigma}'{rho}{sigma}{yields}{sigma}').Where hs is the proportion of agents with opinion (spin){sigma}', M is the number of opinions and {sigma}'{yields}{sigma}' is the probability weight for an agent with opinion {sigma} being convinced by another agentmore » with opinion {sigma}'. We made Monte Carlo simulations of the model in a complex network (using Barabasi-Albert networks [4]) and they displayed the same attractors than the mean-field. Using linear stability analysis, we were able to determine the mean-field attractor structure analytically and to show that it has connections with well known graph theory problems (maximal independent sets and positive fluxes in directed graphs). Our dynamical systems approach is quite simple and can be used also in other models, like the voter model.« less

The Peace Mediator effect: Heterogeneous agents can foster consensus in continuous opinion models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilone, Daniele; Carletti, Timoteo; Bagnoli, Franco; Guazzini, Andrea

2016-11-01

Statistical mechanics has proven to be able to capture the fundamental rules underlying phenomena of social aggregation and opinion dynamics, well studied in disciplines like sociology and psychology. This approach is based on the underlying paradigm that the interesting dynamics of multi-agent systems emerge from the correct definition of few parameters governing the evolution of each individual. In this context, we propose a particular model of opinion dynamics based on the psychological construct named ;cognitive dissonance;. Our system is made of interacting individuals, the agents, each bearing only two dynamical variables (respectively ;opinion; and ;affinity;) self-consistently adjusted during time evolution. We also define two special classes of interacting entities, both acting for a peace mediation process but via different course of action: ;diplomats; and ;auctoritates;. The behavior of the system with and without peace mediators (PMs) is investigated and discussed with reference to corresponding psychological and social implications.

The value of less connected agents in Boolean networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Epstein, Daniel; Bazzan, Ana L. C.

2013-11-01

In multiagent systems, agents often face binary decisions where one seeks to take either the minority or the majority side. Examples are minority and congestion games in general, i.e., situations that require coordination among the agents in order to depict efficient decisions. In minority games such as the El Farol Bar Problem, previous works have shown that agents may reach appropriate levels of coordination, mostly by looking at the history of past decisions. Not many works consider any kind of structure of the social network, i.e., how agents are connected. Moreover, when structure is indeed considered, it assumes some kind of random network with a given, fixed connectivity degree. The present paper departs from the conventional approach in some ways. First, it considers more realistic network topologies, based on preferential attachments. This is especially useful in social networks. Second, the formalism of random Boolean networks is used to help agents to make decisions given their attachments (for example acquaintances). This is coupled with a reinforcement learning mechanism that allows agents to select strategies that are locally and globally efficient. Third, we use agent-based modeling and simulation, a microscopic approach, which allows us to draw conclusions about individuals and/or classes of individuals. Finally, for the sake of illustration we use two different scenarios, namely the El Farol Bar Problem and a binary route choice scenario. With this approach we target systems that adapt dynamically to changes in the environment, including other adaptive decision-makers. Our results using preferential attachments and random Boolean networks are threefold. First we show that an efficient equilibrium can be achieved, provided agents do experimentation. Second, microscopic analysis show that influential agents tend to consider few inputs in their Boolean functions. Third, we have also conducted measurements related to network clustering and centrality that help to see how agents are organized.

A Distributed, Collaborative Intelligent Agent System Approach for Proactive Postmarketing Drug Safety Surveillance

PubMed Central

Ji, Yanqing; Ying, Hao; Farber, Margo S.; Yen, John; Dews, Peter; Miller, Richard E.; Massanari, R. Michael

2014-01-01

Discovering unknown adverse drug reactions (ADRs) in postmarketing surveillance as early as possible is of great importance. The current approach to postmarketing surveillance primarily relies on spontaneous reporting. It is a passive surveillance system and limited by gross underreporting (<10% reporting rate), latency, and inconsistent reporting. We propose a novel team-based intelligent agent software system approach for proactively monitoring and detecting potential ADRs of interest using electronic patient records. We designed such a system and named it ADRMonitor. The intelligent agents, operating on computers located in different places, are capable of continuously and autonomously collaborating with each other and assisting the human users (e.g., the food and drug administration (FDA), drug safety professionals, and physicians). The agents should enhance current systems and accelerate early ADR identification. To evaluate the performance of the ADRMonitor with respect to the current spontaneous reporting approach, we conducted simulation experiments on identification of ADR signal pairs (i.e., potential links between drugs and apparent adverse reactions) under various conditions. The experiments involved over 275 000 simulated patients created on the basis of more than 1000 real patients treated by the drug cisapride that was on the market for seven years until its withdrawal by the FDA in 2000 due to serious ADRs. Healthcare professionals utilizing the spontaneous reporting approach and the ADRMonitor were separately simulated by decision-making models derived from a general cognitive decision model called fuzzy recognition-primed decision (RPD) model that we recently developed. The quantitative simulation results show that 1) the number of true ADR signal pairs detected by the ADRMonitor is 6.6 times higher than that by the spontaneous reporting strategy; 2) the ADR detection rate of the ADRMonitor agents with even moderate decision-making skills is five times higher than that of spontaneous reporting; and 3) as the number of patient cases increases, ADRs could be detected significantly earlier by the ADRMonitor. PMID:20007038

Reinforcement Learning Multi-Agent Modeling of Decision-Making Agents for the Study of Transboundary Surface Water Conflicts with Application to the Syr Darya River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riegels, N.; Siegfried, T.; Pereira Cardenal, S. J.; Jensen, R. A.; Bauer-Gottwein, P.

2008-12-01

In most economics--driven approaches to optimizing water use at the river basin scale, the system is modelled deterministically with the goal of maximizing overall benefits. However, actual operation and allocation decisions must be made under hydrologic and economic uncertainty. In addition, river basins often cross political boundaries, and different states may not be motivated to cooperate so as to maximize basin- scale benefits. Even within states, competing agents such as irrigation districts, municipal water agencies, and large industrial users may not have incentives to cooperate to realize efficiency gains identified in basin- level studies. More traditional simulation--optimization approaches assume pre-commitment by individual agents and stakeholders and unconditional compliance on each side. While this can help determine attainable gains and tradeoffs from efficient management, such hardwired policies do not account for dynamic feedback between agents themselves or between agents and their environments (e.g. due to climate change etc.). In reality however, we are dealing with an out-of-equilibrium multi-agent system, where there is neither global knowledge nor global control, but rather continuous strategic interaction between decision making agents. Based on the theory of stochastic games, we present a computational framework that allows for studying the dynamic feedback between decision--making agents themselves and an inherently uncertain environment in a spatially and temporally distributed manner. Agents with decision-making control over water allocation such as countries, irrigation districts, and municipalities are represented by reinforcement learning agents and coupled to a detailed hydrologic--economic model. This approach emphasizes learning by agents from their continuous interaction with other agents and the environment. It provides a convenient framework for the solution of the problem of dynamic decision-making in a mixed cooperative / non-cooperative environment with which different institutional setups and incentive systems can be studied so to identify reasonable ways to reach desirable, Pareto--optimal allocation outcomes. Preliminary results from an application to the Syr Darya river basin in Central Asia will be presented and discussed. The Syr Darya River is a classic example of a transboundary river basin in which basin-wide efficiency gains identified in optimization studies have not been sufficient to induce cooperative management of the river by the riparian states.

Optimal use of novel agents in chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

PubMed

Smith, Mitchell R; Weiss, Robert F

2018-05-07

Novel agents are changing therapy for patients with CLL, but their optimal use remains unclear. We model the clinical situation in which CLL responds to therapy, but resistant clones, generally carrying del17p, progress and lead to relapse. Sub-clones of varying growth rates and treatment sensitivity affect predicted therapy outcomes. We explore effects of different approaches to starting novel agent in relation to bendamustine-rituximab induction therapy: at initiation of therapy, at the end of chemo-immunotherapy, at molecular relapse, or at clinical detection of relapse. The outcomes differ depending on the underlying clonal architecture, raising the concept that personalized approaches based on clinical evaluation of each patient's clonal architecture might optimize outcomes while minimizing toxicity and cost. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Outdoor Water Use Demand under Changing Climatic and Demographic Conditions: An Agent-based Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanta, L.

2016-12-01

Outdoor water use for landscape and irrigation constitutes a significant end use in residential water demand. In periods of water shortages, utilities may reduce garden demands by implementing irrigation system audits, rebate programs, local ordinances, and voluntary or mandatory water use restrictions. Because utilities do not typically record outdoor and indoor water uses separately, the effects of policies for reducing garden demands cannot be readily calculated. The volume of water required to meet garden demands depends on the housing density or lawn size, type of vegetation, climatic conditions, efficiency of garden irrigation systems, and consumer water-use behaviors. Many existing outdoor demand estimation methods are deterministic and do not include consumer responses to conservation campaigns. In addition, mandatory restrictions may have a substantial impact on reducing outdoor demands, but the effectiveness of mandatory restrictions depends on the timing and the frequency of restrictions, in addition to the distribution of housing density and consumer types within a community. This research investigates a garden end-use model by coupling an agent-based modeling approach and a mechanistic-stochastic water demand model to create a methodology for estimating garden demand and evaluating demand reduction policies. The garden demand model is developed for two water utilities, using a diverse data sets, including residential customer billing records, records of outdoor conservation programs, frequency and type of mandatory water use restrictions, lot size distribution, population growth, and climatic data. A set of garden irrigation parameter values, which are based on the efficiency of irrigation systems and irrigation habits of consumers, are determined for a set of conservation ordinances and restrictions. The model parameters are then validated using customer water usage data from the participating water utilities. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for garden irrigation parameters to determine the most significant factors that should be considered by water utilities to reduce outdoor demand. Data from multiple sources and the agent-based modeling methodology are integrated using a holistic approach to assist utilities in efficiently and sustainably managing outdoor demand.

Evaluating Outdoor Water Use Demand under Changing Climatic and Demographic Conditions: An Agent-based Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanta, L.; Berglund, E. Z.; Soh, M. H.

2017-12-01

Outdoor water-use for landscape and irrigation constitutes a significant end-use in total residential water demand. In periods of water shortages, utilities may reduce garden demands by implementing irrigation system audits, rebate programs, local ordinances, and voluntary or mandatory water-use restrictions. Because utilities do not typically record outdoor and indoor water-uses separately, the effects of policies for reducing garden demands cannot be readily calculated. The volume of water required to meet garden demands depends on the housing density, lawn size, type of vegetation, climatic conditions, efficiency of garden irrigation systems, and consumer water-use behaviors. Many existing outdoor demand estimation methods are deterministic and do not include consumer responses to conservation campaigns. In addition, mandatory restrictions may have a substantial impact on reducing outdoor demands, but the effectiveness of mandatory restrictions depends on the timing and the frequency of restrictions, in addition to the distribution of housing density and consumer types within a community. This research investigates a garden end-use model by coupling an agent-based modeling approach and a mechanistic-stochastic water demand model to create a methodology for estimating garden demand and evaluating demand reduction policies. The garden demand model is developed for two water utilities, using a diverse data sets, including residential customer billing records, outdoor conservation programs, frequency and type of mandatory water-use restrictions, lot size distribution, population growth, and climatic data. A set of garden irrigation parameter values, which are based on the efficiency of irrigation systems and irrigation habits of consumers, are determined for a set of conservation ordinances and restrictions. The model parameters are then validated using customer water usage data from the participating water utilities. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for garden irrigation parameters to determine the most significant factors that should be considered by water utilities to reduce outdoor demand. Data from multiple sources and the agent-based modeling methodology are integrated using a holistic approach to assist utilities in efficiently and sustainably managing outdoor demand.

Metareasoning and Social Evaluations in Cognitive Agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinyol, Isaac; Sabater-Mir, Jordi

Reputation mechanisms have been recognized one of the key technologies when designing multi-agent systems. They are specially relevant in complex open environments, becoming a non-centralized mechanism to control interactions among agents. Cognitive agents tackling such complex societies must use reputation information not only for selecting partners to interact with, but also in metareasoning processes to change reasoning rules. This is the focus of this paper. We argue about the necessity to allow, as a cognitive systems designers, certain degree of freedom in the reasoning rules of the agents. We also describes cognitive approaches of agency that support this idea. Furthermore, taking as a base the computational reputation model Repage, and its integration in a BDI architecture, we use the previous ideas to specify metarules and processes to modify at run-time the reasoning paths of the agent. In concrete we propose a metarule to update the link between Repage and the belief base, and a metarule and a process to update an axiom incorporated in the belief logic of the agent. Regarding this last issue we also provide empirical results that show the evolution of agents that use it.

Linking MODFLOW with an agent-based land-use model to support decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reeves, H.W.; Zellner, M.L.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey numerical groundwater flow model, MODFLOW, was integrated with an agent-based land-use model to yield a simulator for environmental planning studies. Ultimately, this integrated simulator will be used as a means to organize information, illustrate potential system responses, and facilitate communication within a participatory modeling framework. Initial results show the potential system response to different zoning policy scenarios in terms of the spatial patterns of development, which is referred to as urban form, and consequent impacts on groundwater levels. These results illustrate how the integrated simulator is capable of representing the complexity of the system. From a groundwater modeling perspective, the most important aspect of the integration is that the simulator generates stresses on the groundwater system within the simulation in contrast to the traditional approach that requires the user to specify the stresses through time. Copyright ?? 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation ?? 2010 National Ground Water Association.

Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach.

PubMed

Entwisle, Barbara; Williams, Nathalie E; Verdery, Ashton M; Rindfuss, Ronald R; Walsh, Stephen J; Malanson, George P; Mucha, Peter J; Frizzelle, Brian G; McDaniel, Philip M; Yao, Xiaozheng; Heumann, Benjamin W; Prasartkul, Pramote; Sawangdee, Yothin; Jampaklay, Aree

2016-09-01

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: 1) a reference, 'normal' scenario; 2) seven years of unusually wet weather; 3) seven years of unusually dry weather; and 4) seven years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.

Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Entwisle, Barbara; Williams, Nathalie E.; Verdery, Ashton M.; Rindfuss, Ronald R.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Malanson, George P.; Mucha, Peter J.; Frizzelle, Brian G.; McDaniel, Philip M.; Yao, Xiaozheng; Heumann, Benjamin W.; Prasartkul, Pramote; Sawangdee, Yothin; Jampaklay, Aree

2016-01-01

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: 1) a reference, ‘normal’ scenario; 2) seven years of unusually wet weather; 3) seven years of unusually dry weather; and 4) seven years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response. PMID:27594725

Counter-terrorism threat prediction architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehman, Lynn A.; Krause, Lee S.

2004-09-01

This paper will evaluate the feasibility of constructing a system to support intelligence analysts engaged in counter-terrorism. It will discuss the use of emerging techniques to evaluate a large-scale threat data repository (or Infosphere) and comparing analyst developed models to identify and discover potential threat-related activity with a uncertainty metric used to evaluate the threat. This system will also employ the use of psychological (or intent) modeling to incorporate combatant (i.e. terrorist) beliefs and intent. The paper will explore the feasibility of constructing a hetero-hierarchical (a hierarchy of more than one kind or type characterized by loose connection/feedback among elements of the hierarchy) agent based framework or "family of agents" to support "evidence retrieval" defined as combing, or searching the threat data repository and returning information with an uncertainty metric. The counter-terrorism threat prediction architecture will be guided by a series of models, constructed to represent threat operational objectives, potential targets, or terrorist objectives. The approach would compare model representations against information retrieved by the agent family to isolate or identify patterns that match within reasonable measures of proximity. The central areas of discussion will be the construction of an agent framework to search the available threat related information repository, evaluation of results against models that will represent the cultural foundations, mindset, sociology and emotional drive of typical threat combatants (i.e. the mind and objectives of a terrorist), and the development of evaluation techniques to compare result sets with the models representing threat behavior and threat targets. The applicability of concepts surrounding Modeling Field Theory (MFT) will be discussed as the basis of this research into development of proximity measures between the models and result sets and to provide feedback in support of model adaptation (learning). The increasingly complex demands facing analysts evaluating activity threatening to the security of the United States make the family of agent-based data collection (fusion) a promising area. This paper will discuss a system to support the collection and evaluation of potential threat activity as well as an approach fro presentation of the information.

Transaction based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunka, Frantisek; Matula, Jiri

2017-07-01

Transaction based approach is utilized in some methodologies in business process modeling. Essential parts of these transactions are human beings. The notion of agent or actor role is usually used for them. The paper on a particular example describes possibilities of Design Engineering Methodology for Organizations (DEMO) and Resource-Event-Agent (REA) methodology. Whereas the DEMO methodology can be regarded as a generic methodology having its foundation in the theory of Enterprise Ontology the REA methodology is regarded as the domain specific methodology and has its origin in accountancy systems. The results of these approaches is that the DEMO methodology captures everything that happens in the reality with a good empirical evidence whereas the REA methodology captures only changes connected with economic events. Economic events represent either change of the property rights to economic resource or consumption or production of economic resources. This results from the essence of economic events and their connection to economic resources.

A New Approach To Secure Federated Information Bases Using Agent Technology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weippi, Edgar; Klug, Ludwig; Essmayr, Wolfgang

2003-01-01

Discusses database agents which can be used to establish federated information bases by integrating heterogeneous databases. Highlights include characteristics of federated information bases, including incompatible database management systems, schemata, and frequently changing context; software agent technology; Java agents; system architecture;…

An opinion formation based binary optimization approach for feature selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamedmoghadam, Homayoun; Jalili, Mahdi; Yu, Xinghuo

2018-02-01

This paper proposed a novel optimization method based on opinion formation in complex network systems. The proposed optimization technique mimics human-human interaction mechanism based on a mathematical model derived from social sciences. Our method encodes a subset of selected features to the opinion of an artificial agent and simulates the opinion formation process among a population of agents to solve the feature selection problem. The agents interact using an underlying interaction network structure and get into consensus in their opinions, while finding better solutions to the problem. A number of mechanisms are employed to avoid getting trapped in local minima. We compare the performance of the proposed method with a number of classical population-based optimization methods and a state-of-the-art opinion formation based method. Our experiments on a number of high dimensional datasets reveal outperformance of the proposed algorithm over others.

A New Approach to Predict the Fish Fillet Shelf-Life in Presence of Natural Preservative Agents.

PubMed

Giuffrida, Alessandro; Giarratana, Filippo; Valenti, Davide; Muscolino, Daniele; Parisi, Roberta; Parco, Alessio; Marotta, Stefania; Ziino, Graziella; Panebianco, Antonio

2017-04-13

Three data sets concerning the behaviour of spoilage flora of fillets treated with natural preservative substances (NPS) were used to construct a new kind of mathematical predictive model. This model, unlike other ones, allows expressing the antibacterial effect of the NPS separately from the prediction of the growth rate. This approach, based on the introduction of a parameter into the predictive primary model, produced a good fitting of observed data and allowed characterising quantitatively the increase of shelf-life of fillets.

VAS: A Vision Advisor System combining agents and object-oriented databases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eilbert, James L.; Lim, William; Mendelsohn, Jay; Braun, Ron; Yearwood, Michael

1994-01-01

A model-based approach to identifying and finding the orientation of non-overlapping parts on a tray has been developed. The part models contain both exact and fuzzy descriptions of part features, and are stored in an object-oriented database. Full identification of the parts involves several interacting tasks each of which is handled by a distinct agent. Using fuzzy information stored in the model allowed part features that were essentially at the noise level to be extracted and used for identification. This was done by focusing attention on the portion of the part where the feature must be found if the current hypothesis of the part ID is correct. In going from one set of parts to another the only thing that needs to be changed is the database of part models. This work is part of an effort in developing a Vision Advisor System (VAS) that combines agents and objected-oriented databases.

A Systematic Review of Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation Applications in the Higher Education Domain

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gu, X.; Blackmore, K. L.

2015-01-01

This paper presents the results of a systematic review of agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) applications in the higher education (HE) domain. Agent-based modelling is a "bottom-up" modelling paradigm in which system-level behaviour (macro) is modelled through the behaviour of individual local-level agent interactions (micro).…

A Theory of the Measurement of Knowledge Content, Access, and Learning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pirolli, Peter; Wilson, Mark

1998-01-01

An approach to the measurement of knowledge content, knowledge access, and knowledge learning is developed. First a theoretical view of cognition is described, and then a class of measurement models, based on Rasch modeling, is presented. Knowledge access and content are viewed as determining the observable actions selected by an agent to achieve…

Epidemic spreading induced by diversity of agents' mobility.

PubMed

Zhou, Jie; Chung, Ning Ning; Chew, Lock Yue; Lai, Choy Heng

2012-08-01

In this paper, we study the impact of the preference of an individual for public transport on the spread of infectious disease, through a quantity known as the public mobility. Our theoretical and numerical results based on a constructed model reveal that if the average public mobility of the agents is fixed, an increase in the diversity of the agents' public mobility reduces the epidemic threshold, beyond which an enhancement in the rate of infection is observed. Our findings provide an approach to improve the resistance of a society against infectious disease, while preserving the utilization rate of the public transportation system.

Toward an agent-based patient-physician model for the adoption of continuous glucose monitoring technology.

PubMed

Verella, J Tipan; Patek, Stephen D

2009-03-01

Health care is a major component of the U.S. economy, and tremendous research and development efforts are directed toward new technologies in this arena. Unfortunately few tools exist for predicting outcomes associated with new medical products, including whether new technologies will find widespread use within the target population. Questions of technology adoption are rife within the diabetes technology community, and we particularly consider the long-term prognosis for continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) technology. We present an approach to the design and analysis of an agent model that describes the process of CGM adoption among patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), their physicians, and related stakeholders. We particularly focus on patient-physician interactions, with patients discovering CGM technology through word-of-mouth communication and through advertising, applying pressure to their physicians in the context of CGM device adoption, and physicians, concerned about liability, looking to peers for a general level of acceptance of the technology before recommending CGM to their patients. Repeated simulation trials of the agent-based model show that the adoption process reflects the heterogeneity of the adopting community. We also find that the effect of the interaction between patients and physicians is agents. Each physician, say colored by the nature of the environment as defined by the model parameters. We find that, by being able to represent the diverse perspectives of different types of stakeholders, agent-based models can offer useful insights into the adoption process. Models of this sort may eventually prove to be useful in helping physicians, other health care providers, patient advocacy groups, third party payers, and device manufacturers understand the impact of their decisions about new technologies. (c) 2009 Diabetes Technology Society.

Evolutionary Agent-based Models to design distributed water management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Reed, P. M.

2012-12-01

There is growing awareness in the scientific community that the traditional centralized approach to water resources management, as described in much of the water resources literature, provides an ideal optimal solution, which is certainly useful to quantify the best physically achievable performance, but is generally inapplicable. Most real world water resources management problems are indeed characterized by the presence of multiple, distributed and institutionally-independent decision-makers. Multi-Agent Systems provide a potentially more realistic alternative framework to model multiple and self-interested decision-makers in a credible context. Each decision-maker can be represented by an agent who, being self-interested, acts according to local objective functions and produces negative externalities on system level objectives. Different levels of coordination can potentially be included in the framework by designing coordination mechanisms to drive the current decision-making structure toward the global system efficiency. Yet, the identification of effective coordination strategies can be particularly complex in modern institutional contexts and current practice is dependent on largely ad-hoc coordination strategies. In this work we propose a novel Evolutionary Agent-based Modeling (EAM) framework that enables a mapping of fully uncoordinated and centrally coordinated solutions into their relative "many-objective" tradeoffs using multiobjective evolutionary algorithms. Then, by analysing the conflicts between local individual agent and global system level objectives it is possible to more fully understand the causes, consequences, and potential solution strategies for coordination failures. Game-theoretic criteria have value for identifying the most interesting alternatives from a policy making point of view as well as the coordination mechanisms that can be applied to obtain these interesting solutions. The proposed approach is numerically tested on a synthetic case study, representing a Y-shaped system composed by two regulated lakes, whose releases merge just upstream of a city. Each reservoir is operated by an agent in order to prevent floods along the lake shores (local objective). However, the optimal operation of the reservoirs with respect to the local objectives is conflicting with the minimization of floods in the city (global objective). The evolution of the Agent-based Model from individualistic management strategies of the reservoirs toward a global compromise that reduces the costs for the city is analysed.

Neuroprotective Drug for Nerve Trauma Revealed Using Artificial Intelligence.

PubMed

Romeo-Guitart, David; Forés, Joaquim; Herrando-Grabulosa, Mireia; Valls, Raquel; Leiva-Rodríguez, Tatiana; Galea, Elena; González-Pérez, Francisco; Navarro, Xavier; Petegnief, Valerie; Bosch, Assumpció; Coma, Mireia; Mas, José Manuel; Casas, Caty

2018-01-30

Here we used a systems biology approach and artificial intelligence to identify a neuroprotective agent for the treatment of peripheral nerve root avulsion. Based on accumulated knowledge of the neurodegenerative and neuroprotective processes that occur in motoneurons after root avulsion, we built up protein networks and converted them into mathematical models. Unbiased proteomic data from our preclinical models were used for machine learning algorithms and for restrictions to be imposed on mathematical solutions. Solutions allowed us to identify combinations of repurposed drugs as potential neuroprotective agents and we validated them in our preclinical models. The best one, NeuroHeal, neuroprotected motoneurons, exerted anti-inflammatory properties and promoted functional locomotor recovery. NeuroHeal endorsed the activation of Sirtuin 1, which was essential for its neuroprotective effect. These results support the value of network-centric approaches for drug discovery and demonstrate the efficacy of NeuroHeal as adjuvant treatment with surgical repair for nervous system trauma.

Multiagent distributed watershed management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Amigoni, F.; Cai, X.

2012-04-01

Deregulation and democratization of water along with increasing environmental awareness are challenging integrated water resources planning and management worldwide. The traditional centralized approach to water management, as described in much of water resources literature, is often unfeasible in most of the modern social and institutional contexts. Thus it should be reconsidered from a more realistic and distributed perspective, in order to account for the presence of multiple and often independent Decision Makers (DMs) and many conflicting stakeholders. Game theory based approaches are often used to study these situations of conflict (Madani, 2010), but they are limited to a descriptive perspective. Multiagent systems (see Wooldridge, 2009), instead, seem to be a more suitable paradigm because they naturally allow to represent a set of self-interested agents (DMs and/or stakeholders) acting in a distributed decision process at the agent level, resulting in a promising compromise alternative between the ideal centralized solution and the actual uncoordinated practices. Casting a water management problem in a multiagent framework allows to exploit the techniques and methods that are already available in this field for solving distributed optimization problems. In particular, in Distributed Constraint Satisfaction Problems (DCSP, see Yokoo et al., 2000), each agent controls some variables according to his own utility function but has to satisfy inter-agent constraints; while in Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOP, see Modi et al., 2005), the problem is generalized by introducing a global objective function to be optimized that requires a coordination mechanism between the agents. In this work, we apply a DCSP-DCOP based approach to model a steady state hypothetical watershed management problem (Yang et al., 2009), involving several active human agents (i.e. agents who make decisions) and reactive ecological agents (i.e. agents representing environmental interests). Different scenarios of distributed management are simulated, i.e. a situation where all the agents act independently, a situation in which a global coordination takes place and in-between solutions. The solutions are compared with the ones presented in Yang et al. (2009), aiming to present more general multiagent approaches to solve distributed management problems.

Formal Analysis of Self-Efficacy in Job Interviewee’s Mental State Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajoge, N. S.; Aziz, A. A.; Yusof, S. A. Mohd

2017-08-01

This paper presents a formal analysis approach for self-efficacy model of interviewee’s mental state during a job interview session. Self-efficacy is a construct that has been hypothesised to combine with motivation and interviewee anxiety to define state influence of interviewees. The conceptual model was built based on psychological theories and models related to self-efficacy. A number of well-known relations between events and the course of self-efficacy are summarized from the literature and it is shown that the proposed model exhibits those patterns. In addition, this formal model has been mathematically analysed to find out which stable situations exist. Finally, it is pointed out how this model can be used in a software agent or robot-based platform. Such platform can provide an interview coaching approach where support to the user is provided based on their individual metal state during interview sessions.

Territorial Developments Based on Graffiti: a Statistical Mechanics Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-28

defined on a lattice . We introduce a two-gang Hamiltonian model where agents have red or blue affiliation but are otherwise indistinguishable. In this...ramifications of our results. Keywords: Territorial Formation, Spin Systems, Phase Transitions 1. Introduction Lattice models have been extensively used in...inconsequential. In short, lattice models have proved extremely useful in the context of the physical, biological and even chemical sciences. In more

1996-2016: Two decades of econophysics: Between methodological diversification and conceptual coherence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schinckus, C.

2016-12-01

This article aimed at presenting the scattered econophysics literature as a unified and coherent field through a specific lens imported from philosophy science. More precisely, I used the methodology developed by Imre Lakatos to cover the methodological evolution of econophysics over these last two decades. In this perspective, three co-existing approaches have been identified: statistical econophysics, bottom-up agent based econophysics and top-down agent based econophysics. Although the last is presented here as the last step of the methodological evolution of econophysics, it is worth mentioning that this tradition is still very new. A quick look on the econophysics literature shows that the vast majority of works in this field deal with a strictly statistical approach or a classical bottom-up agent-based modelling. In this context of diversification, the objective (and contribution) of this article is to emphasize the conceptual coherence of econophysics as a unique field of research. With this purpose, I used a theoretical framework coming from philosophy of science to characterize how econophysics evolved by combining a methodological enrichment with the preservation of its core conceptual statements.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hale, M.A.; Craig, J.I.

Integrated Product and Process Development (IPPD) embodies the simultaneous application to both system and quality engineering methods throughout an iterative design process. The use of IPPD results in the time-conscious, cost-saving development of engineering systems. To implement IPPD, a Decision-Based Design perspective is encapsulated in an approach that focuses on the role of the human designer in product development. The approach has two parts and is outlined in this paper. First, an architecture, called DREAMS, is being developed that facilitates design from a decision-based perspective. Second, a supporting computing infrastructure, called IMAGE, is being designed. Agents are used to implementmore » the overall infrastructure on the computer. Successful agent utilization requires that they be made of three components: the resource, the model, and the wrap. Current work is focused on the development of generalized agent schemes and associated demonstration projects. When in place, the technology independent computing infrastructure will aid the designer in systematically generating knowledge used to facilitate decision-making.« less

Representing Micro-Macro Linkages by Actor-Based Dynamic Network Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snijders, Tom A. B.; Steglich, Christian E. G.

2015-01-01

Stochastic actor-based models for network dynamics have the primary aim of statistical inference about processes of network change, but may be regarded as a kind of agent-based models. Similar to many other agent-based models, they are based on local rules for actor behavior. Different from many other agent-based models, by including elements of…

Agent Architectures for Compliance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgemeestre, Brigitte; Hulstijn, Joris; Tan, Yao-Hua

A Normative Multi-Agent System consists of autonomous agents who must comply with social norms. Different kinds of norms make different assumptions about the cognitive architecture of the agents. For example, a principle-based norm assumes that agents can reflect upon the consequences of their actions; a rule-based formulation only assumes that agents can avoid violations. In this paper we present several cognitive agent architectures for self-monitoring and compliance. We show how different assumptions about the cognitive architecture lead to different information needs when assessing compliance. The approach is validated with a case study of horizontal monitoring, an approach to corporate tax auditing recently introduced by the Dutch Customs and Tax Authority.

Point: From animal models to prevention of colon cancer. Systematic review of chemoprevention in min mice and choice of the model system.

PubMed

Corpet, Denis E; Pierre, Fabrice

2003-05-01

The Apc(Min/+) mouse model and the azoxymethane (AOM) rat model are the main animal models used to study the effect of dietary agents on colorectal cancer. We reviewed recently the potency of chemopreventive agents in the AOM rat model (D. E. Corpet and S. Tache, Nutr. Cancer, 43: 1-21, 2002). Here we add the results of a systematic review of the effect of dietary and chemopreventive agents on the tumor yield in Min mice. The review is based on the results of 179 studies from 71 articles and is displayed also on the internet http://corpet.net/min.(2) We compared the efficacy of agents in the Min mouse model and the AOM rat model, and found that they were correlated (r = 0.66; P < 0.001), although some agents that afford strong protection in the AOM rat and the Min mouse small bowel increase the tumor yield in the large bowel of mutant mice. The agents included piroxicam, sulindac, celecoxib, difluoromethylornithine, and polyethylene glycol. The reason for this discrepancy is not known. We also compare the results of rodent studies with those of clinical intervention studies of polyp recurrence. We found that the effect of most of the agents tested was consistent across the animal and clinical models. Our point is thus: rodent models can provide guidance in the selection of prevention approaches to human colon cancer, in particular they suggest that polyethylene glycol, hesperidin, protease inhibitor, sphingomyelin, physical exercise, epidermal growth factor receptor kinase inhibitor, (+)-catechin, resveratrol, fish oil, curcumin, caffeate, and thiosulfonate are likely important preventive agents.

Money creation and circulation in a credit economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Wanting; Fu, Han; Wang, Yougui

2017-01-01

This paper presents a multi-agent model describing the main mechanisms of money creation and money circulation in a credit economy. Our special attention is paid to the role of debt in the two processes. With the agent-based modeling approach, macro phenomena are well founded in micro-based causalities. A hypothetical economy composed of a banking system and multiple traders is proposed. Instead of being a pure financial intermediary, the banking system is viewed as the center of money creation and an accelerator of money circulation. Agents finance their expenditures not only by their own savings but also through bank loans. Through mathematical calculations and numerical simulation, we identify the determinants of money multiplier and those of velocity of money. In contrast to the traditional money creation model, the money multiplier is determined not only by the behavior of borrowing but also by the behavior of repayment as well. The velocity of money is found to be influenced by both money-related factors such as the expenditure habits of agents with respect to their income and wealth and debt-related factors such as borrowing and repayment behaviors of debtors and the reserve requirements faced by banks.

Research Methods in Healthcare Epidemiology and Antimicrobial Stewardship-Mathematical Modeling.

PubMed

Barnes, Sean L; Kasaie, Parastu; Anderson, Deverick J; Rubin, Michael

2016-11-01

Mathematical modeling is a valuable methodology used to study healthcare epidemiology and antimicrobial stewardship, particularly when more traditional study approaches are infeasible, unethical, costly, or time consuming. We focus on 2 of the most common types of mathematical modeling, namely compartmental modeling and agent-based modeling, which provide important advantages-such as shorter developmental timelines and opportunities for extensive experimentation-over observational and experimental approaches. We summarize these advantages and disadvantages via specific examples and highlight recent advances in the methodology. A checklist is provided to serve as a guideline in the development of mathematical models in healthcare epidemiology and antimicrobial stewardship. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2016;1-7.

A novel approach to multihazard modeling and simulation.

PubMed

Smith, Silas W; Portelli, Ian; Narzisi, Giuseppe; Nelson, Lewis S; Menges, Fabian; Rekow, E Dianne; Mincer, Joshua S; Mishra, Bhubaneswar; Goldfrank, Lewis R

2009-06-01

To develop and apply a novel modeling approach to support medical and public health disaster planning and response using a sarin release scenario in a metropolitan environment. An agent-based disaster simulation model was developed incorporating the principles of dose response, surge response, and psychosocial characteristics superimposed on topographically accurate geographic information system architecture. The modeling scenarios involved passive and active releases of sarin in multiple transportation hubs in a metropolitan city. Parameters evaluated included emergency medical services, hospital surge capacity (including implementation of disaster plan), and behavioral and psychosocial characteristics of the victims. In passive sarin release scenarios of 5 to 15 L, mortality increased nonlinearly from 0.13% to 8.69%, reaching 55.4% with active dispersion, reflecting higher initial doses. Cumulative mortality rates from releases in 1 to 3 major transportation hubs similarly increased nonlinearly as a function of dose and systemic stress. The increase in mortality rate was most pronounced in the 80% to 100% emergency department occupancy range, analogous to the previously observed queuing phenomenon. Effective implementation of hospital disaster plans decreased mortality and injury severity. Decreasing ambulance response time and increasing available responding units reduced mortality among potentially salvageable patients. Adverse psychosocial characteristics (excess worry and low compliance) increased demands on health care resources. Transfer to alternative urban sites was possible. An agent-based modeling approach provides a mechanism to assess complex individual and systemwide effects in rare events.

Agent-based modeling of endotoxin-induced acute inflammatory response in human blood leukocytes.

PubMed

Dong, Xu; Foteinou, Panagiota T; Calvano, Steven E; Lowry, Stephen F; Androulakis, Ioannis P

2010-02-18

Inflammation is a highly complex biological response evoked by many stimuli. A persistent challenge in modeling this dynamic process has been the (nonlinear) nature of the response that precludes the single-variable assumption. Systems-based approaches offer a promising possibility for understanding inflammation in its homeostatic context. In order to study the underlying complexity of the acute inflammatory response, an agent-based framework is developed that models the emerging host response as the outcome of orchestrated interactions associated with intricate signaling cascades and intercellular immune system interactions. An agent-based modeling (ABM) framework is proposed to study the nonlinear dynamics of acute human inflammation. The model is implemented using NetLogo software. Interacting agents involve either inflammation-specific molecules or cells essential for the propagation of the inflammatory reaction across the system. Spatial orientation of molecule interactions involved in signaling cascades coupled with the cellular heterogeneity are further taken into account. The proposed in silico model is evaluated through its ability to successfully reproduce a self-limited inflammatory response as well as a series of scenarios indicative of the nonlinear dynamics of the response. Such scenarios involve either a persistent (non)infectious response or innate immune tolerance and potentiation effects followed by perturbations in intracellular signaling molecules and cascades. The ABM framework developed in this study provides insight on the stochastic interactions of the mediators involved in the propagation of endotoxin signaling at the cellular response level. The simulation results are in accordance with our prior research effort associated with the development of deterministic human inflammation models that include transcriptional dynamics, signaling, and physiological components. The hypothetical scenarios explored in this study would potentially improve our understanding of how manipulating the behavior of the molecular species could manifest into emergent behavior of the overall system.

AGENT-BASED MODELS IN EMPIRICAL SOCIAL RESEARCH*

PubMed Central

Bruch, Elizabeth; Atwell, Jon

2014-01-01

Agent-based modeling has become increasingly popular in recent years, but there is still no codified set of recommendations or practices for how to use these models within a program of empirical research. This article provides ideas and practical guidelines drawn from sociology, biology, computer science, epidemiology, and statistics. We first discuss the motivations for using agent-based models in both basic science and policy-oriented social research. Next, we provide an overview of methods and strategies for incorporating data on behavior and populations into agent-based models, and review techniques for validating and testing the sensitivity of agent-based models. We close with suggested directions for future research. PMID:25983351

A Multi Agent Based Approach for Prehospital Emergency Management.

PubMed

Safdari, Reza; Shoshtarian Malak, Jaleh; Mohammadzadeh, Niloofar; Danesh Shahraki, Azimeh

2017-07-01

To demonstrate an architecture to automate the prehospital emergency process to categorize the specialized care according to the situation at the right time for reducing the patient mortality and morbidity. Prehospital emergency process were analyzed using existing prehospital management systems, frameworks and the extracted process were modeled using sequence diagram in Rational Rose software. System main agents were identified and modeled via component diagram, considering the main system actors and by logically dividing business functionalities, finally the conceptual architecture for prehospital emergency management was proposed. The proposed architecture was simulated using Anylogic simulation software. Anylogic Agent Model, State Chart and Process Model were used to model the system. Multi agent systems (MAS) had a great success in distributed, complex and dynamic problem solving environments, and utilizing autonomous agents provides intelligent decision making capabilities.  The proposed architecture presents prehospital management operations. The main identified agents are: EMS Center, Ambulance, Traffic Station, Healthcare Provider, Patient, Consultation Center, National Medical Record System and quality of service monitoring agent. In a critical condition like prehospital emergency we are coping with sophisticated processes like ambulance navigation health care provider and service assignment, consultation, recalling patients past medical history through a centralized EHR system and monitoring healthcare quality in a real-time manner. The main advantage of our work has been the multi agent system utilization. Our Future work will include proposed architecture implementation and evaluation of its impact on patient quality care improvement.

A Multi Agent Based Approach for Prehospital Emergency Management

PubMed Central

Safdari, Reza; Shoshtarian Malak, Jaleh; Mohammadzadeh, Niloofar; Danesh Shahraki, Azimeh

2017-01-01

Objective: To demonstrate an architecture to automate the prehospital emergency process to categorize the specialized care according to the situation at the right time for reducing the patient mortality and morbidity. Methods: Prehospital emergency process were analyzed using existing prehospital management systems, frameworks and the extracted process were modeled using sequence diagram in Rational Rose software. System main agents were identified and modeled via component diagram, considering the main system actors and by logically dividing business functionalities, finally the conceptual architecture for prehospital emergency management was proposed. The proposed architecture was simulated using Anylogic simulation software. Anylogic Agent Model, State Chart and Process Model were used to model the system. Results: Multi agent systems (MAS) had a great success in distributed, complex and dynamic problem solving environments, and utilizing autonomous agents provides intelligent decision making capabilities.  The proposed architecture presents prehospital management operations. The main identified agents are: EMS Center, Ambulance, Traffic Station, Healthcare Provider, Patient, Consultation Center, National Medical Record System and quality of service monitoring agent. Conclusion: In a critical condition like prehospital emergency we are coping with sophisticated processes like ambulance navigation health care provider and service assignment, consultation, recalling patients past medical history through a centralized EHR system and monitoring healthcare quality in a real-time manner. The main advantage of our work has been the multi agent system utilization. Our Future work will include proposed architecture implementation and evaluation of its impact on patient quality care improvement. PMID:28795061

An agent-based approach to financial stylized facts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimokawa, Tetsuya; Suzuki, Kyoko; Misawa, Tadanobu

2007-06-01

An important challenge of the financial theory in recent years is to construct more sophisticated models which have consistencies with as many financial stylized facts that cannot be explained by traditional models. Recently, psychological studies on decision making under uncertainty which originate in Kahneman and Tversky's research attract a lot of interest as key factors which figure out the financial stylized facts. These psychological results have been applied to the theory of investor's decision making and financial equilibrium modeling. This paper, following these behavioral financial studies, would like to propose an agent-based equilibrium model with prospect theoretical features of investors. Our goal is to point out a possibility that loss-averse feature of investors explains vast number of financial stylized facts and plays a crucial role in price formations of financial markets. Price process which is endogenously generated through our model has consistencies with, not only the equity premium puzzle and the volatility puzzle, but great kurtosis, asymmetry of return distribution, auto-correlation of return volatility, cross-correlation between return volatility and trading volume. Moreover, by using agent-based simulations, the paper also provides a rigorous explanation from the viewpoint of a lack of market liquidity to the size effect, which means that small-sized stocks enjoy excess returns compared to large-sized stocks.

Dimensionality of Motion and Binding Valency Govern Receptor-Ligand Kinetics As Revealed by Agent-Based Modeling.

PubMed

Lehnert, Teresa; Figge, Marc Thilo

2017-01-01

Mathematical modeling and computer simulations have become an integral part of modern biological research. The strength of theoretical approaches is in the simplification of complex biological systems. We here consider the general problem of receptor-ligand binding in the context of antibody-antigen binding. On the one hand, we establish a quantitative mapping between macroscopic binding rates of a deterministic differential equation model and their microscopic equivalents as obtained from simulating the spatiotemporal binding kinetics by stochastic agent-based models. On the other hand, we investigate the impact of various properties of B cell-derived receptors-such as their dimensionality of motion, morphology, and binding valency-on the receptor-ligand binding kinetics. To this end, we implemented an algorithm that simulates antigen binding by B cell-derived receptors with a Y-shaped morphology that can move in different dimensionalities, i.e., either as membrane-anchored receptors or as soluble receptors. The mapping of the macroscopic and microscopic binding rates allowed us to quantitatively compare different agent-based model variants for the different types of B cell-derived receptors. Our results indicate that the dimensionality of motion governs the binding kinetics and that this predominant impact is quantitatively compensated by the bivalency of these receptors.

Dimensionality of Motion and Binding Valency Govern Receptor–Ligand Kinetics As Revealed by Agent-Based Modeling

PubMed Central

Lehnert, Teresa; Figge, Marc Thilo

2017-01-01

Mathematical modeling and computer simulations have become an integral part of modern biological research. The strength of theoretical approaches is in the simplification of complex biological systems. We here consider the general problem of receptor–ligand binding in the context of antibody–antigen binding. On the one hand, we establish a quantitative mapping between macroscopic binding rates of a deterministic differential equation model and their microscopic equivalents as obtained from simulating the spatiotemporal binding kinetics by stochastic agent-based models. On the other hand, we investigate the impact of various properties of B cell-derived receptors—such as their dimensionality of motion, morphology, and binding valency—on the receptor–ligand binding kinetics. To this end, we implemented an algorithm that simulates antigen binding by B cell-derived receptors with a Y-shaped morphology that can move in different dimensionalities, i.e., either as membrane-anchored receptors or as soluble receptors. The mapping of the macroscopic and microscopic binding rates allowed us to quantitatively compare different agent-based model variants for the different types of B cell-derived receptors. Our results indicate that the dimensionality of motion governs the binding kinetics and that this predominant impact is quantitatively compensated by the bivalency of these receptors. PMID:29250071

Adapting biomodulatory strategies for treatment in new contexts: pancreatic and oral cancers (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anbil, Sriram R.; Rizvi, Imran; Khan, Amjad P.; Celli, Jonathan P.; Maytin, Edward V.; Hasan, Tayyaba

2016-03-01

Biomodulation of cancer cell metabolism represents a promising approach to overcome tumor heterogeneity and poor selectivity, which contribute significantly to treatment resistance. To date, several studies have demonstrated that modulation of cell metabolism including the heme synthesis pathway serves as an elegant approach to improve the efficacy of aminolevulinic acid (ALA) based photodynamic therapy (PDT). However, the ability of biomodulation-enhanced PDT to improve outcomes in low resource settings and to address challenges in treating lethal tumors with exogenous photosensitizers remains underexplored. The ability of vitamin D or methotrexate to enhance PDT efficacy in a carcinogen-induced hamster cheek pouch model of oral squamous cell carcinoma and in 3D cell-based models for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is evaluated. Challenges associated with adapting PDT regimens to low resource settings, understanding the effects of biomodulatory agents on the metabolism of cancer cells, and the differential effects of biomodulatory agents on tumor and stromal cells will be discussed.

Projecting Sexual and Injecting HIV Risks into Future Outcomes with Agent-Based Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobashev, Georgiy V.; Morris, Robert J.; Zule, William A.

Longitudinal studies of health outcomes for HIV could be very costly cumbersome and not representative of the risk population. Conversely, cross-sectional approaches could be representative but rely on the retrospective information to estimate prevalence and incidence. We present an Agent-based Modeling (ABM) approach where we use behavioral data from a cross-sectional representative study and project the behavior into the future so that the risks of acquiring HIV could be studied in a dynamical/temporal sense. We show how the blend of behavior and contact network factors (sexual, injecting) play the role in the risk of future HIV acquisition and time till obtaining HIV. We show which subjects are the most likely persons to get HIV in the next year, and whom they are likely to infect. We examine how different behaviors are related to the increase or decrease of HIV risks and how to estimate the quantifiable risk measures such as survival HIV free.

An Empirical Agent-Based Model to Simulate the Adoption of Water Reuse Using the Social Amplification of Risk Framework.

PubMed

Kandiah, Venu; Binder, Andrew R; Berglund, Emily Z

2017-10-01

Water reuse can serve as a sustainable alternative water source for urban areas. However, the successful implementation of large-scale water reuse projects depends on community acceptance. Because of the negative perceptions that are traditionally associated with reclaimed water, water reuse is often not considered in the development of urban water management plans. This study develops a simulation model for understanding community opinion dynamics surrounding the issue of water reuse, and how individual perceptions evolve within that context, which can help in the planning and decision-making process. Based on the social amplification of risk framework, our agent-based model simulates consumer perceptions, discussion patterns, and their adoption or rejection of water reuse. The model is based on the "risk publics" model, an empirical approach that uses the concept of belief clusters to explain the adoption of new technology. Each household is represented as an agent, and parameters that define their behavior and attributes are defined from survey data. Community-level parameters-including social groups, relationships, and communication variables, also from survey data-are encoded to simulate the social processes that influence community opinion. The model demonstrates its capabilities to simulate opinion dynamics and consumer adoption of water reuse. In addition, based on empirical data, the model is applied to investigate water reuse behavior in different regions of the United States. Importantly, our results reveal that public opinion dynamics emerge differently based on membership in opinion clusters, frequency of discussion, and the structure of social networks. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

OntoTrader: An Ontological Web Trading Agent Approach for Environmental Information Retrieval

PubMed Central

Iribarne, Luis; Padilla, Nicolás; Ayala, Rosa; Asensio, José A.; Criado, Javier

2014-01-01

Modern Web-based Information Systems (WIS) are becoming increasingly necessary to provide support for users who are in different places with different types of information, by facilitating their access to the information, decision making, workgroups, and so forth. Design of these systems requires the use of standardized methods and techniques that enable a common vocabulary to be defined to represent the underlying knowledge. Thus, mediation elements such as traders enrich the interoperability of web components in open distributed systems. These traders must operate with other third-party traders and/or agents in the system, which must also use a common vocabulary for communication between them. This paper presents the OntoTrader architecture, an Ontological Web Trading agent based on the OMG ODP trading standard. It also presents the ontology needed by some system agents to communicate with the trading agent and the behavioral framework for the SOLERES OntoTrader agent, an Environmental Management Information System (EMIS). This framework implements a “Query-Searching/Recovering-Response” information retrieval model using a trading service, SPARQL notation, and the JADE platform. The paper also presents reflection, delegation and, federation mediation models and describes formalization, an experimental testing environment in three scenarios, and a tool which allows our proposal to be evaluated and validated. PMID:24977211

OntoTrader: an ontological Web trading agent approach for environmental information retrieval.

PubMed

Iribarne, Luis; Padilla, Nicolás; Ayala, Rosa; Asensio, José A; Criado, Javier

2014-01-01

Modern Web-based Information Systems (WIS) are becoming increasingly necessary to provide support for users who are in different places with different types of information, by facilitating their access to the information, decision making, workgroups, and so forth. Design of these systems requires the use of standardized methods and techniques that enable a common vocabulary to be defined to represent the underlying knowledge. Thus, mediation elements such as traders enrich the interoperability of web components in open distributed systems. These traders must operate with other third-party traders and/or agents in the system, which must also use a common vocabulary for communication between them. This paper presents the OntoTrader architecture, an Ontological Web Trading agent based on the OMG ODP trading standard. It also presents the ontology needed by some system agents to communicate with the trading agent and the behavioral framework for the SOLERES OntoTrader agent, an Environmental Management Information System (EMIS). This framework implements a "Query-Searching/Recovering-Response" information retrieval model using a trading service, SPARQL notation, and the JADE platform. The paper also presents reflection, delegation and, federation mediation models and describes formalization, an experimental testing environment in three scenarios, and a tool which allows our proposal to be evaluated and validated.

Case Study: Organotypic human in vitro models of embryonic ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Morphogenetic fusion of tissues is a common event in embryonic development and disruption of fusion is associated with birth defects of the eye, heart, neural tube, phallus, palate, and other organ systems. Embryonic tissue fusion requires precise regulation of cell-cell and cell-matrix interactions that drive proliferation, differentiation, and morphogenesis. Chemical low-dose exposures can disrupt morphogenesis across space and time by interfering with key embryonic fusion events. The Morphogenetic Fusion Task uses computer and in vitro models to elucidate consequences of developmental exposures. The Morphogenetic Fusion Task integrates multiple approaches to model responses to chemicals that leaad to birth defects, including integrative mining on ToxCast DB, ToxRefDB, and chemical structures, advanced computer agent-based models, and human cell-based cultures that model disruption of cellular and molecular behaviors including mechanisms predicted from integrative data mining and agent-based models. The purpose of the poster is to indicate progress on the CSS 17.02 Virtual Tissue Models Morphogenesis Task 1 products for the Board of Scientific Counselors meeting on Nov 16-17.

Fining of Red Wine Monitored by Multiple Light Scattering.

PubMed

Ferrentino, Giovanna; Ramezani, Mohsen; Morozova, Ksenia; Hafner, Daniela; Pedri, Ulrich; Pixner, Konrad; Scampicchio, Matteo

2017-07-12

This work describes a new approach based on multiple light scattering to study red wine clarification processes. The whole spectral signal (1933 backscattering points along the length of each sample vial) were fitted by a multivariate kinetic model that was built with a three-step mechanism, implying (1) adsorption of wine colloids to fining agents, (2) aggregation into larger particles, and (3) sedimentation. Each step is characterized by a reaction rate constant. According to the first reaction, the results showed that gelatin was the most efficient fining agent, concerning the main objective, which was the clarification of the wine, and consequently the increase in its limpidity. Such a trend was also discussed in relation to the results achieved by nephelometry, total phenols, ζ-potential, color, sensory, and electronic nose analyses. Also, higher concentrations of the fining agent (from 5 to 30 g/100 L) or higher temperatures (from 10 to 20 °C) sped up the process. Finally, the advantage of using the whole spectral signal vs classical univariate approaches was demonstrated by comparing the uncertainty associated with the rate constants of the proposed kinetic model. Overall, multiple light scattering technique showed a great potential for studying fining processes compared to classical univariate approaches.

Numerical Modeling of Mixing and Venting from Explosions in Bunkers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Benjamin

2005-07-01

2D and 3D numerical simulations were performed to study the dynamic interaction of explosion products in a concrete bunker with ambient air, stored chemical or biological warfare (CBW) agent simulant, and the surrounding walls and structure. The simulations were carried out with GEODYN, a multi-material, Godunov-based Eulerian code, that employs adaptive mesh refinement and runs efficiently on massively parallel computer platforms. Tabular equations of state were used for all materials with the exception of any high explosives employed, which were characterized with conventional JWL models. An appropriate constitutive model was used to describe the concrete. Interfaces between materials were either tracked with a volume-of-fluid method that used high-order reconstruction to specify the interface location and orientation, or a capturing approach was employed with the assumption of local thermal and mechanical equilibrium. A major focus of the study was to estimate the extent of agent heating that could be obtained prior to venting of the bunker and resultant agent dispersal. Parameters investigated included the bunker construction, agent layout, energy density in the bunker and the yield-to-agent mass ratio. Turbulent mixing was found to be the dominant heat transfer mechanism for heating the agent.

Agent-based modeling of autophagy reveals emergent regulatory behavior of spatio-temporal autophagy dynamics.

PubMed

Börlin, Christoph S; Lang, Verena; Hamacher-Brady, Anne; Brady, Nathan R

2014-09-10

Autophagy is a vesicle-mediated pathway for lysosomal degradation, essential under basal and stressed conditions. Various cellular components, including specific proteins, protein aggregates, organelles and intracellular pathogens, are targets for autophagic degradation. Thereby, autophagy controls numerous vital physiological and pathophysiological functions, including cell signaling, differentiation, turnover of cellular components and pathogen defense. Moreover, autophagy enables the cell to recycle cellular components to metabolic substrates, thereby permitting prolonged survival under low nutrient conditions. Due to the multi-faceted roles for autophagy in maintaining cellular and organismal homeostasis and responding to diverse stresses, malfunction of autophagy contributes to both chronic and acute pathologies. We applied a systems biology approach to improve the understanding of this complex cellular process of autophagy. All autophagy pathway vesicle activities, i.e. creation, movement, fusion and degradation, are highly dynamic, temporally and spatially, and under various forms of regulation. We therefore developed an agent-based model (ABM) to represent individual components of the autophagy pathway, subcellular vesicle dynamics and metabolic feedback with the cellular environment, thereby providing a framework to investigate spatio-temporal aspects of autophagy regulation and dynamic behavior. The rules defining our ABM were derived from literature and from high-resolution images of autophagy markers under basal and activated conditions. Key model parameters were fit with an iterative method using a genetic algorithm and a predefined fitness function. From this approach, we found that accurate prediction of spatio-temporal behavior required increasing model complexity by implementing functional integration of autophagy with the cellular nutrient state. The resulting model is able to reproduce short-term autophagic flux measurements (up to 3 hours) under basal and activated autophagy conditions, and to measure the degree of cell-to-cell variability. Moreover, we experimentally confirmed two model predictions, namely (i) peri-nuclear concentration of autophagosomes and (ii) inhibitory lysosomal feedback on mTOR signaling. Agent-based modeling represents a novel approach to investigate autophagy dynamics, function and dysfunction with high biological realism. Our model accurately recapitulates short-term behavior and cell-to-cell variability under basal and activated conditions of autophagy. Further, this approach also allows investigation of long-term behaviors emerging from biologically-relevant alterations to vesicle trafficking and metabolic state.

An Active Learning Exercise for Introducing Agent-Based Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pinder, Jonathan P.

2013-01-01

Recent developments in agent-based modeling as a method of systems analysis and optimization indicate that students in business analytics need an introduction to the terminology, concepts, and framework of agent-based modeling. This article presents an active learning exercise for MBA students in business analytics that demonstrates agent-based…

Evolutionary Agent-Based Simulation of the Introduction of New Technologies in Air Traffic Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yliniemi, Logan; Agogino, Adrian K.; Tumer, Kagan

2014-01-01

Accurate simulation of the effects of integrating new technologies into a complex system is critical to the modernization of our antiquated air traffic system, where there exist many layers of interacting procedures, controls, and automation all designed to cooperate with human operators. Additions of even simple new technologies may result in unexpected emergent behavior due to complex human/ machine interactions. One approach is to create high-fidelity human models coming from the field of human factors that can simulate a rich set of behaviors. However, such models are difficult to produce, especially to show unexpected emergent behavior coming from many human operators interacting simultaneously within a complex system. Instead of engineering complex human models, we directly model the emergent behavior by evolving goal directed agents, representing human users. Using evolution we can predict how the agent representing the human user reacts given his/her goals. In this paradigm, each autonomous agent in a system pursues individual goals, and the behavior of the system emerges from the interactions, foreseen or unforeseen, between the agents/actors. We show that this method reflects the integration of new technologies in a historical case, and apply the same methodology for a possible future technology.

Application of the AHP method in modeling the trust and reputation of software agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zytniewski, Mariusz; Klementa, Marek; Skorupka, Dariusz; Stanek, Stanislaw; Duchaczek, Artur

2016-06-01

Given the unique characteristics of cyberspace and, in particular, the number of inherent security threats, communication between software agents becomes a highly complex issue and a major challenge that, on the one hand, needs to be continuously monitored and, on the other, awaits new solutions addressing its vulnerabilities. An approach that has recently come into view mimics mechanisms typical of social systems and is based on trust and reputation that assist agents in deciding which other agents to interact with. The paper offers an enhancement to existing trust and reputation models, involving the application of the AHP method that is widely used for decision support in social systems, notably for risks analysis. To this end, it is proposed to expand the underlying conceptual basis by including such notions as self-trust and social trust, and to apply these to software agents. The discussion is concluded with an account of an experiment aimed at testing the effectiveness of the proposed solution.

Application of the Price-Volume Approach in Cases of Innovative Drugs Where Value-Based Pricing is Inadequate: Description of Real Experiences in Italy.

PubMed

Messori, Andrea

2016-08-01

Several cases of expensive drugs designed for large patient populations (e.g. sofosbuvir) have raised a complex question in terms of drug pricing. Even assuming value-based pricing, the treatment with these drugs of all eligible patients would have an immense budgetary impact, which is unsustainable also for the richest countries. This raises the need to reduce the prices of these agents in comparison with those suggested by the value-based approach and to devise new pricing methods that can achieve this goal. The present study discusses in detail the following two methods: (i) The approach based on setting nation-wide budget thresholds for individual innovative agents in which a fixed proportion of the historical pharmaceutical expenditure represents the maximum budget attributable to an innovative treatment; (ii) The approach based on nation-wide price-volume agreements in which drug prices are progressively reduced as more patients receive the treatment. The first approach has been developed in the USA by the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review and has been applied to PCSK9 inhibitors (alirocumab and evolocumab). The second approach has been designed for the Italian market and has found a systematic application to manage the price of ranibizumab, sofosbuvir, and PCSK9 inhibitors. While, in the past, price-volume agreements have been applied only on an empirical basis (i.e. in the absence of any quantitative theoretical rule), more recently some explicit mathematical models have been described. The performance of these models is now being evaluated on the basis of the real-world experiences conducted in some European countries, especially Italy.

A Framework of Multi Objectives Negotiation for Dynamic Supply Chain Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chai, Jia Yee; Sakaguchi, Tatsuhiko; Shirase, Keiichi

Trends of globalization and advances in Information Technology (IT) have created opportunity in collaborative manufacturing across national borders. A dynamic supply chain utilizes these advances to enable more flexibility in business cooperation. This research proposes a concurrent decision making framework for a three echelons dynamic supply chain model. The dynamic supply chain is formed by autonomous negotiation among agents based on multi agents approach. Instead of generating negotiation aspects (such as amount, price and due date) arbitrary, this framework proposes to utilize the information available at operational level of an organization in order to generate realistic negotiation aspect. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated by various case studies.

A multi-agent approach to intelligent monitoring in smart grids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallejo, D.; Albusac, J.; Glez-Morcillo, C.; Castro-Schez, J. J.; Jiménez, L.

2014-04-01

In this paper, we propose a scalable multi-agent architecture to give support to smart grids, paying special attention to the intelligent monitoring of distribution substations. The data gathered by multiple sensors are used by software agents that are responsible for monitoring different aspects or events of interest, such as normal voltage values or unbalanced intensity values that can end up blowing fuses and decreasing the quality of service of end consumers. The knowledge bases of these agents have been built by means of a formal model for normality analysis that has been successfully used in other surveillance domains. The architecture facilitates the integration of new agents and can be easily configured and deployed to monitor different environments. The experiments have been conducted over a power distribution network.

High performance cellular level agent-based simulation with FLAME for the GPU.

PubMed

Richmond, Paul; Walker, Dawn; Coakley, Simon; Romano, Daniela

2010-05-01

Driven by the availability of experimental data and ability to simulate a biological scale which is of immediate interest, the cellular scale is fast emerging as an ideal candidate for middle-out modelling. As with 'bottom-up' simulation approaches, cellular level simulations demand a high degree of computational power, which in large-scale simulations can only be achieved through parallel computing. The flexible large-scale agent modelling environment (FLAME) is a template driven framework for agent-based modelling (ABM) on parallel architectures ideally suited to the simulation of cellular systems. It is available for both high performance computing clusters (www.flame.ac.uk) and GPU hardware (www.flamegpu.com) and uses a formal specification technique that acts as a universal modelling format. This not only creates an abstraction from the underlying hardware architectures, but avoids the steep learning curve associated with programming them. In benchmarking tests and simulations of advanced cellular systems, FLAME GPU has reported massive improvement in performance over more traditional ABM frameworks. This allows the time spent in the development and testing stages of modelling to be drastically reduced and creates the possibility of real-time visualisation for simple visual face-validation.

Experimental modelling at the grain scale of bedload on steep slopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fonstad, M. A.; Blanton, P.

2011-12-01

The explosion of methods for acquiring riverscape topography and bathymetry is producing a revolution in our abilities to measure the forms and processes of river environments. For example, the acquisition of continuous downstream maps of river topography and substrate particle sizes has allowed researchers to test the sediment links concept and to locate the positions and extents of such links in gravel bed streams using a 'hyperscale' framework. Related approaches have allowed researchers to map the distribution of salmon spawning habitat patches and the least-cost connectivity between these habitat patches. In our switch from the traditional use of separated cross-sections to a continuous 2D or 3D digital environment, several conceptual ideas need to be evaluated. One of these is the idea that 'habitat', as used by mobile organisms, is a characteristic directly tied to physical characteristics of a 'place', often represented as habitat preference on a per-pixel basis. One of the difficulties with this idea is that mobile organisms interact with their local environments at a variety of scales, and their sensory organs allow them to sense an environment that may extend beyond one pixel. Similarly, mobile organisms can interact with other mobile organisms in such a way as to make their preferred locations different from those that would occur if one organism is being observed individually. As we do not have the ability to remotely sense all of the mobile organisms and their positions in a riverscape, we need new methods of analyzing river data that can better estimate both physical and biological attributes for rivers. To develop new approaches for analyzing mapped riverscape processes, we use hyperscale and connectivity analyses for salmon spawning habitat in the River Tromie in Scotland. For Scott Creek, a gravel-bedded river in the Oregon Cascades, we use agent-based models of Chinook salmon and of macroinvertebrates to connect high-resolution physical environments to likely organism locations in Scott Creek, Oregon. The scale that macroinvertebrates and salmon sense their environment is in the centimeter to decimeter range, and we use structure from motion and 2D velocity modeling approaches to produce digital physical environments in which our model agents can interacts. By hypothesizing rules of agent movement and interactions, the histories of digital organism interactions can produce maps of habitat preference that include both the physical habitat characteristics and the likely patterns due to organism interactions. One of the challenges in the future will be to scale these approaches up to larger areas and a more diverse set of ecosystem interactions. Validation of agent-based models also poses a challenge in river environments with diverse physical characteristics and histories. By combining agent-based and high-resolution approaches, many stream ecology and fluvial theories might be much more easily tested, such as whether or not habitat heterogeneity drives biodiversity in river systems.

Experimental oligopolies modeling: A dynamic approach based on heterogeneous behaviors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerboni Baiardi, Lorenzo; Naimzada, Ahmad K.

2018-05-01

In the rank of behavioral rules, imitation-based heuristics has received special attention in economics (see [14] and [12]). In particular, imitative behavior is considered in order to understand the evidences arising in experimental oligopolies which reveal that the Cournot-Nash equilibrium does not emerge as unique outcome and show that an important component of the production at the competitive level is observed (see e.g.[1,3,9] or [7,10]). By considering the pioneering groundbreaking approach of [2], we build a dynamical model of linear oligopolies where heterogeneous decision mechanisms of players are made explicit. In particular, we consider two different types of quantity setting players characterized by different decision mechanisms that coexist and operate simultaneously: agents that adaptively adjust their choices towards the direction that increases their profit are embedded with imitator agents. The latter ones use a particular form of proportional imitation rule that considers the awareness about the presence of strategic interactions. It is noteworthy that the Cournot-Nash outcome is a stationary state of our models. Our thesis is that the chaotic dynamics arousing from a dynamical model, where heterogeneous players are considered, are capable to qualitatively reproduce the outcomes of experimental oligopolies.

A framework for learning and planning against switching strategies in repeated games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez-Leal, Pablo; Munoz de Cote, Enrique; Sucar, L. Enrique

2014-04-01

Intelligent agents, human or artificial, often change their behaviour as they interact with other agents. For an agent to optimise its performance when interacting with such agents, it must be capable of detecting and adapting according to such changes. This work presents an approach on how to effectively deal with non-stationary switching opponents in a repeated game context. Our main contribution is a framework for online learning and planning against opponents that switch strategies. We present how two opponent modelling techniques work within the framework and prove the usefulness of the approach experimentally in the iterated prisoner's dilemma, when the opponent is modelled as an agent that switches between different strategies (e.g. TFT, Pavlov and Bully). The results of both models were compared against each other and against a state-of-the-art non-stationary reinforcement learning technique. Results reflect that our approach obtains competitive results without needing an offline training phase, as opposed to the state-of-the-art techniques.

[Analysis of contractual incentives for kidney transplants in Brazil using the principal-agent model].

PubMed

Costa, Cassia Kely Favoretto; Balbinotto, Giácomo; Sampaio, Luciano Menezes Bezerra

2016-09-12

The aim of this article was to analyze contractual incentives for kidney transplants in Brazil based on the principal-agent model. The approach assumes that the Brazilian Ministry of Health is the principal and the public hospitals accredited by the National Transplant System are the agent. The Ministry of Health's welfare depends on measures taken by hospitals in kidney uptake. Hospitals allocate administrative, financial, and management efforts to conduct measures in kidney donation, removal, uptake, and transplantation. Hospitals may choose the levels of effort that are consistent with the payments and incentives received in relation to transplantation costs. The solution to this type of problem lies in structuring an optimal incentives contract, which requires aligning the interests of both parties involved in the transplantation system.

A Dealer Model of Foreign Exchange Market with Finite Assets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamano, Tomoya; Kanazawa, Kiyoshi; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

An agent-based model is introduced to study the finite-asset effect in foreign exchange markets. We find that the transacted price asymptotically approaches an equilibrium price, which is determined by the monetary balance between the pair of currencies. We phenomenologically derive a formula to estimate the equilibrium price, and we model its relaxation dynamics around the equilibrium price on the basis of a Langevin-like equation.

Experiments in Error Propagation within Hierarchal Combat Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-01

Bayesian Information Criterion CNO Chief of Naval Operations DOE Design of Experiments DOD Department of Defense MANA Map Aware Non-uniform Automata ...ground up” approach. First, it develops a mission-level model for one on one submarine combat in Map Aware Non-uniform Automata (MANA) simulation, an... Automata (MANA), an agent based simulation that can model the different postures of submarines. It feeds the results from MANA into stochastic

Complex systems approach to scientific publication and peer-review system: development of an agent-based model calibrated with empirical journal data.

PubMed

Kovanis, Michail; Porcher, Raphaël; Ravaud, Philippe; Trinquart, Ludovic

Scientific peer-review and publication systems incur a huge burden in terms of costs and time. Innovative alternatives have been proposed to improve the systems, but assessing their impact in experimental studies is not feasible at a systemic level. We developed an agent-based model by adopting a unified view of peer review and publication systems and calibrating it with empirical journal data in the biomedical and life sciences. We modeled researchers, research manuscripts and scientific journals as agents. Researchers were characterized by their scientific level and resources, manuscripts by their scientific value, and journals by their reputation and acceptance or rejection thresholds. These state variables were used in submodels for various processes such as production of articles, submissions to target journals, in-house and external peer review, and resubmissions. We collected data for a sample of biomedical and life sciences journals regarding acceptance rates, resubmission patterns and total number of published articles. We adjusted submodel parameters so that the agent-based model outputs fit these empirical data. We simulated 105 journals, 25,000 researchers and 410,000 manuscripts over 10 years. A mean of 33,600 articles were published per year; 19 % of submitted manuscripts remained unpublished. The mean acceptance rate was 21 % after external peer review and rejection rate 32 % after in-house review; 15 % publications resulted from the first submission, 47 % the second submission and 20 % the third submission. All decisions in the model were mainly driven by the scientific value, whereas journal targeting and persistence in resubmission defined whether a manuscript would be published or abandoned after one or many rejections. This agent-based model may help in better understanding the determinants of the scientific publication and peer-review systems. It may also help in assessing and identifying the most promising alternative systems of peer review.

SPARK: A Framework for Multi-Scale Agent-Based Biomedical Modeling.

PubMed

Solovyev, Alexey; Mikheev, Maxim; Zhou, Leming; Dutta-Moscato, Joyeeta; Ziraldo, Cordelia; An, Gary; Vodovotz, Yoram; Mi, Qi

2010-01-01

Multi-scale modeling of complex biological systems remains a central challenge in the systems biology community. A method of dynamic knowledge representation known as agent-based modeling enables the study of higher level behavior emerging from discrete events performed by individual components. With the advancement of computer technology, agent-based modeling has emerged as an innovative technique to model the complexities of systems biology. In this work, the authors describe SPARK (Simple Platform for Agent-based Representation of Knowledge), a framework for agent-based modeling specifically designed for systems-level biomedical model development. SPARK is a stand-alone application written in Java. It provides a user-friendly interface, and a simple programming language for developing Agent-Based Models (ABMs). SPARK has the following features specialized for modeling biomedical systems: 1) continuous space that can simulate real physical space; 2) flexible agent size and shape that can represent the relative proportions of various cell types; 3) multiple spaces that can concurrently simulate and visualize multiple scales in biomedical models; 4) a convenient graphical user interface. Existing ABMs of diabetic foot ulcers and acute inflammation were implemented in SPARK. Models of identical complexity were run in both NetLogo and SPARK; the SPARK-based models ran two to three times faster.

Virtual commissioning of automated micro-optical assembly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlette, Christian; Losch, Daniel; Haag, Sebastian; Zontar, Daniel; Roßmann, Jürgen; Brecher, Christian

2015-02-01

In this contribution, we present a novel approach to enable virtual commissioning for process developers in micro-optical assembly. Our approach aims at supporting micro-optics experts to effectively develop assisted or fully automated assembly solutions without detailed prior experience in programming while at the same time enabling them to easily implement their own libraries of expert schemes and algorithms for handling optical components. Virtual commissioning is enabled by a 3D simulation and visualization system in which the functionalities and properties of automated systems are modeled, simulated and controlled based on multi-agent systems. For process development, our approach supports event-, state- and time-based visual programming techniques for the agents and allows for their kinematic motion simulation in combination with looped-in simulation results for the optical components. First results have been achieved for simply switching the agents to command the real hardware setup after successful process implementation and validation in the virtual environment. We evaluated and adapted our system to meet the requirements set by industrial partners-- laser manufacturers as well as hardware suppliers of assembly platforms. The concept is applied to the automated assembly of optical components for optically pumped semiconductor lasers and positioning of optical components for beam-shaping

Complexity Science Applications to Dynamic Trajectory Management: Research Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sawhill, Bruce; Herriot, James; Holmes, Bruce J.; Alexandrov, Natalia

2009-01-01

The promise of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) is strongly tied to the concept of trajectory-based operations in the national airspace system. Existing efforts to develop trajectory management concepts are largely focused on individual trajectories, optimized independently, then de-conflicted among each other, and individually re-optimized, as possible. The benefits in capacity, fuel, and time are valuable, though perhaps could be greater through alternative strategies. The concept of agent-based trajectories offers a strategy for automation of simultaneous multiple trajectory management. The anticipated result of the strategy would be dynamic management of multiple trajectories with interacting and interdependent outcomes that satisfy multiple, conflicting constraints. These constraints would include the business case for operators, the capacity case for the Air Navigation Service Provider (ANSP), and the environmental case for noise and emissions. The benefits in capacity, fuel, and time might be improved over those possible under individual trajectory management approaches. The proposed approach relies on computational agent-based modeling (ABM), combinatorial mathematics, as well as application of "traffic physics" concepts to the challenge, and modeling and simulation capabilities. The proposed strategy could support transforming air traffic control from managing individual aircraft behaviors to managing systemic behavior of air traffic in the NAS. A system built on the approach could provide the ability to know when regions of airspace approach being "full," that is, having non-viable local solution space for optimizing trajectories in advance.

Strategies for efficient numerical implementation of hybrid multi-scale agent-based models to describe biological systems

PubMed Central

Cilfone, Nicholas A.; Kirschner, Denise E.; Linderman, Jennifer J.

2015-01-01

Biologically related processes operate across multiple spatiotemporal scales. For computational modeling methodologies to mimic this biological complexity, individual scale models must be linked in ways that allow for dynamic exchange of information across scales. A powerful methodology is to combine a discrete modeling approach, agent-based models (ABMs), with continuum models to form hybrid models. Hybrid multi-scale ABMs have been used to simulate emergent responses of biological systems. Here, we review two aspects of hybrid multi-scale ABMs: linking individual scale models and efficiently solving the resulting model. We discuss the computational choices associated with aspects of linking individual scale models while simultaneously maintaining model tractability. We demonstrate implementations of existing numerical methods in the context of hybrid multi-scale ABMs. Using an example model describing Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, we show relative computational speeds of various combinations of numerical methods. Efficient linking and solution of hybrid multi-scale ABMs is key to model portability, modularity, and their use in understanding biological phenomena at a systems level. PMID:26366228

Goal-Based Domain Modeling as a Basis for Cross-Disciplinary Systems Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarke, Matthias; Nissen, Hans W.; Rose, Thomas; Schmitz, Dominik

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are important drivers for innovation. In particular, project-driven SMEs that closely cooperate with their customers have specific needs in regard to information engineering of their development process. They need a fast requirements capture since this is most often included in the (unpaid) offer development phase. At the same time, they need to maintain and reuse the knowledge and experiences they have gathered in previous projects extensively as it is their core asset. The situation is complicated further if the application field crosses disciplinary boundaries. To bridge the gaps and perspectives, we focus on shared goals and dependencies captured in models at a conceptual level. Such a model-based approach also offers a smarter connection to subsequent development stages, including a high share of automated code generation. In the approach presented here, the agent- and goal-oriented formalism i * is therefore extended by domain models to facilitate information organization. This extension permits a domain model-based similarity search, and a model-based transformation towards subsequent development stages. Our approach also addresses the evolution of domain models reflecting the experiences from completed projects. The approach is illustrated with a case study on software-intensive control systems in an SME of the automotive domain.

Rapid Detection of Pathogens

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

David Perlin

2005-08-14

Pathogen identification is a crucial first defense against bioterrorism. A major emphasis of our national biodefense strategy is to establish fast, accurate and sensitive assays for diagnosis of infectious diseases agents. Such assays will ensure early and appropriate treatment of infected patients. Rapid diagnostics can also support infection control measures, which monitor and limit the spread of infectious diseases agents. Many select agents are highly transmissible in the early stages of disease, and it is critical to identify infected patients and limit the risk to the remainder of the population and to stem potential panic in the general population. Nucleicmore » acid-based molecular approaches for identification overcome many of the deficiencies associated with conventional culture methods by exploiting both large- and small-scale genomic differences between organisms. PCR-based amplification of highly conserved ribosomal RNA (rRNA) genes, intergenic sequences, and specific toxin genes is currently the most reliable approach for bacterial, fungal and many viral pathogenic agents. When combined with fluorescence-based oligonucleotide detection systems, this approach provides real-time, quantitative, high fidelity analysis capable of single nucleotide allelic discrimination (4). These probe systems offer rapid turn around time (<2 h) and are suitable for high throughput, automated multiplex operations that are critical for clinical diagnostic laboratories. In this pilot program, we have used molecular beacon technology invented at the Public health Research Institute to develop a new generation of molecular probes to rapidly detect important agents of infectious diseases. We have also developed protocols to rapidly extract nucleic acids from a variety of clinical specimen including and blood and tissue to for detection in the molecular assays. This work represented a cooperative research development program between the Kramer-Tyagi/Perlin labs on probe development and the Perlin lab in sample preparation and testing in animal models.« less

Computational Fluid Dynamics modeling of contrast transport in basilar aneurysms following flow-altering surgeries.

PubMed

Vali, Alireza; Abla, Adib A; Lawton, Michael T; Saloner, David; Rayz, Vitaliy L

2017-01-04

In vivo measurement of blood velocity fields and flow descriptors remains challenging due to image artifacts and limited resolution of current imaging methods; however, in vivo imaging data can be used to inform and validate patient-specific computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models. Image-based CFD can be particularly useful for planning surgical interventions in complicated cases such as fusiform aneurysms of the basilar artery, where it is crucial to alter pathological hemodynamics while preserving flow to the distal vasculature. In this study, patient-specific CFD modeling was conducted for two basilar aneurysm patients considered for surgical treatment. In addition to velocity fields, transport of contrast agent was simulated for the preoperative and postoperative conditions using two approaches. The transport of a virtual contrast passively following the flow streamlines was simulated to predict post-surgical flow regions prone to thrombus deposition. In addition, the transport of a mixture of blood with an iodine-based contrast agent was modeled to compare and verify the CFD results with X-ray angiograms. The CFD-predicted patterns of contrast flow were qualitatively compared to in vivo X-ray angiograms acquired before and after the intervention. The results suggest that the mixture modeling approach, accounting for the flow rates and properties of the contrast injection, is in better agreement with the X-ray angiography data. The virtual contrast modeling assessed the residence time based on flow patterns unaffected by the injection procedure, which makes the virtual contrast modeling approach better suited for prediction of thrombus deposition, which is not limited to the peri-procedural state. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global structure–activity relationship model for nonmutagenic carcinogens using virtual ligand-protein interactions as model descriptors

PubMed Central

Cunningham, Albert R.; Trent, John O.

2012-01-01

Structure–activity relationship (SAR) models are powerful tools to investigate the mechanisms of action of chemical carcinogens and to predict the potential carcinogenicity of untested compounds. We describe the use of a traditional fragment-based SAR approach along with a new virtual ligand-protein interaction-based approach for modeling of nonmutagenic carcinogens. The ligand-based SAR models used descriptors derived from computationally calculated ligand-binding affinities for learning set agents to 5495 proteins. Two learning sets were developed. One set was from the Carcinogenic Potency Database, where chemicals tested for rat carcinogenesis along with Salmonella mutagenicity data were provided. The second was from Malacarne et al. who developed a learning set of nonalerting compounds based on rodent cancer bioassay data and Ashby’s structural alerts. When the rat cancer models were categorized based on mutagenicity, the traditional fragment model outperformed the ligand-based model. However, when the learning sets were composed solely of nonmutagenic or nonalerting carcinogens and noncarcinogens, the fragment model demonstrated a concordance of near 50%, whereas the ligand-based models demonstrated a concordance of 71% for nonmutagenic carcinogens and 74% for nonalerting carcinogens. Overall, these findings suggest that expert system analysis of virtual chemical protein interactions may be useful for developing predictive SAR models for nonmutagenic carcinogens. Moreover, a more practical approach for developing SAR models for carcinogenesis may include fragment-based models for chemicals testing positive for mutagenicity and ligand-based models for chemicals devoid of DNA reactivity. PMID:22678118

Global structure-activity relationship model for nonmutagenic carcinogens using virtual ligand-protein interactions as model descriptors.

PubMed

Cunningham, Albert R; Carrasquer, C Alex; Qamar, Shahid; Maguire, Jon M; Cunningham, Suzanne L; Trent, John O

2012-10-01

Structure-activity relationship (SAR) models are powerful tools to investigate the mechanisms of action of chemical carcinogens and to predict the potential carcinogenicity of untested compounds. We describe the use of a traditional fragment-based SAR approach along with a new virtual ligand-protein interaction-based approach for modeling of nonmutagenic carcinogens. The ligand-based SAR models used descriptors derived from computationally calculated ligand-binding affinities for learning set agents to 5495 proteins. Two learning sets were developed. One set was from the Carcinogenic Potency Database, where chemicals tested for rat carcinogenesis along with Salmonella mutagenicity data were provided. The second was from Malacarne et al. who developed a learning set of nonalerting compounds based on rodent cancer bioassay data and Ashby's structural alerts. When the rat cancer models were categorized based on mutagenicity, the traditional fragment model outperformed the ligand-based model. However, when the learning sets were composed solely of nonmutagenic or nonalerting carcinogens and noncarcinogens, the fragment model demonstrated a concordance of near 50%, whereas the ligand-based models demonstrated a concordance of 71% for nonmutagenic carcinogens and 74% for nonalerting carcinogens. Overall, these findings suggest that expert system analysis of virtual chemical protein interactions may be useful for developing predictive SAR models for nonmutagenic carcinogens. Moreover, a more practical approach for developing SAR models for carcinogenesis may include fragment-based models for chemicals testing positive for mutagenicity and ligand-based models for chemicals devoid of DNA reactivity.

Computational Modeling of Inflammation and Wound Healing

PubMed Central

Ziraldo, Cordelia; Mi, Qi; An, Gary; Vodovotz, Yoram

2013-01-01

Objective Inflammation is both central to proper wound healing and a key driver of chronic tissue injury via a positive-feedback loop incited by incidental cell damage. We seek to derive actionable insights into the role of inflammation in wound healing in order to improve outcomes for individual patients. Approach To date, dynamic computational models have been used to study the time evolution of inflammation in wound healing. Emerging clinical data on histo-pathological and macroscopic images of evolving wounds, as well as noninvasive measures of blood flow, suggested the need for tissue-realistic, agent-based, and hybrid mechanistic computational simulations of inflammation and wound healing. Innovation We developed a computational modeling system, Simple Platform for Agent-based Representation of Knowledge, to facilitate the construction of tissue-realistic models. Results A hybrid equation–agent-based model (ABM) of pressure ulcer formation in both spinal cord-injured and -uninjured patients was used to identify control points that reduce stress caused by tissue ischemia/reperfusion. An ABM of arterial restenosis revealed new dynamics of cell migration during neointimal hyperplasia that match histological features, but contradict the currently prevailing mechanistic hypothesis. ABMs of vocal fold inflammation were used to predict inflammatory trajectories in individuals, possibly allowing for personalized treatment. Conclusions The intertwined inflammatory and wound healing responses can be modeled computationally to make predictions in individuals, simulate therapies, and gain mechanistic insights. PMID:24527362

Perception Modelling of Visitors in Vargas Museum Using Agent-Based Simulation and Visibility Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carcellar, B. G., III

2017-10-01

Museum exhibit management is one of the usual undertakings of museum facilitators. Art works must be strategically placed to achieve maximum viewing from the visitors. The positioning of the artworks also highly influences the quality of experience of the visitors. One solution in such problems is to utilize GIS and Agent-Based Modelling (ABM). In ABM, persistent interacting objects are modelled as agents. These agents are given attributes and behaviors that describe their properties as well as their motion. In this study, ABM approach that incorporates GIS is utilized to perform analyticcal assessment on the placement of the artworks in the Vargas Museum. GIS serves as the backbone for the spatial aspect of the simulation such as the placement of the artwork exhibits, as well as possible obstructions to perception such as the columns, walls, and panel boards. Visibility Analysis is also done to the model in GIS to assess the overall visibility of the artworks. The ABM is done using the initial GIS outputs and GAMA, an open source ABM software. Visitors are modelled as agents, moving inside the museum following a specific decision tree. The simulation is done in three use cases: the 10 %, 20 %, and 30 % chance of having a visitor in the next minute. For the case of the said museum, the 10 % chance is determined to be the closest simulation case to the actual and the recommended minimum time to achieve a maximum artwork perception is 1 hour and 40 minutes. Initial assessment of the results shows that even after 3 hours of simulation, small parts of the exhibit show lack of viewers, due to its distance from the entrance. A more detailed decision tree for the visitor agents can be incorporated to have a more realistic simulation.

Emergence of Swarming Behavior: Foraging Agents Evolve Collective Motion Based on Signaling.

PubMed

Witkowski, Olaf; Ikegami, Takashi

2016-01-01

Swarming behavior is common in biology, from cell colonies to insect swarms and bird flocks. However, the conditions leading to the emergence of such behavior are still subject to research. Since Reynolds' boids, many artificial models have reproduced swarming behavior, focusing on details ranging from obstacle avoidance to the introduction of fixed leaders. This paper presents a model of evolved artificial agents, able to develop swarming using only their ability to listen to each other's signals. The model simulates a population of agents looking for a vital resource they cannot directly detect, in a 3D environment. Instead of a centralized algorithm, each agent is controlled by an artificial neural network, whose weights are encoded in a genotype and adapted by an original asynchronous genetic algorithm. The results demonstrate that agents progressively evolve the ability to use the information exchanged between each other via signaling to establish temporary leader-follower relations. These relations allow agents to form swarming patterns, emerging as a transient behavior that improves the agents' ability to forage for the resource. Once they have acquired the ability to swarm, the individuals are able to outperform the non-swarmers at finding the resource. The population hence reaches a neutral evolutionary space which leads to a genetic drift of the genotypes. This reductionist approach to signal-based swarming not only contributes to shed light on the minimal conditions for the evolution of a swarming behavior, but also more generally it exemplifies the effect communication can have on optimal search patterns in collective groups of individuals.

Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulligan, Kevin B.; Brown, Casey; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

2014-03-01

This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

A water market simulator considering pair-wise trades between agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huskova, I.; Erfani, T.; Harou, J. J.

2012-04-01

In many basins in England no further water abstraction licences are available. Trading water between water rights holders has been recognized as a potentially effective and economically efficient strategy to mitigate increasing scarcity. A screening tool that could assess the potential for trade through realistic simulation of individual water rights holders would help assess the solution's potential contribution to local water management. We propose an optimisation-driven water market simulator that predicts pair-wise trade in a catchment and represents its interaction with natural hydrology and engineered infrastructure. A model is used to emulate licence-holders' willingness to engage in short-term trade transactions. In their simplest form agents are represented using an economic benefit function. The working hypothesis is that trading behaviour can be partially predicted based on differences in marginal values of water over space and time and estimates of transaction costs on pair-wise trades. We discuss the further possibility of embedding rules, norms and preferences of the different water user sectors to more realistically represent the behaviours, motives and constraints of individual licence holders. The potential benefits and limitations of such a social simulation (agent-based) approach is contrasted with our simulator where agents are driven by economic optimization. A case study based on the Dove River Basin (UK) demonstrates model inputs and outputs. The ability of the model to suggest impacts of water rights policy reforms on trading is discussed.

Modelling human decision-making in coupled human and natural systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feola, G.

2012-12-01

A solid understanding of human decision-making is essential to analyze the complexity of coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) and inform policies to promote resilience in the face of environmental change. Human decisions drive and/or mediate the interactions and feedbacks, and contribute to the heterogeneity and non-linearity that characterize CHANS. However, human decision-making is usually over-simplistically modeled, whereby human agents are represented deterministically either as dumb or clairvoyant decision-makers. Decision-making models fall short in the integration of both environmental and human behavioral drivers, and concerning the latter, tend to focus on only one category, e.g. economic, cultural, or psychological. Furthermore, these models render a linear decision-making process and therefore fail to account for the recursive co-evolutionary dynamics in CHANS. As a result, these models constitute only a weak basis for policy-making. There is therefore scope and an urgent need for better approaches to human decision-making, to produce the knowledge that can inform vulnerability reduction policies in the face of environmental change. This presentation synthesizes the current state-of-the-art of modelling human decision-making in CHANS, with particular reference to agricultural systems, and delineates how the above mentioned shortcomings can be overcome. Through examples from research on pesticide use and adaptation to climate change, both based on the integrative agent-centered framework (Feola and Binder, 2010), the approach for an improved understanding of human agents in CHANS are illustrated. This entails: integrative approach, focus on behavioral dynamics more than states, feedbacks between individual and system levels, and openness to heterogeneity.

Functionality, Complexity, and Approaches to Assessment of Resilience Under Constrained Energy and Information

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-26

albeit powerful , method available for exploring CAS. As discussed above, there are many useful mathematical tools appropriate for CAS modeling. Agent-based...cells, tele- phone calls, and sexual contacts approach power -law distributions. [48] Networks in general are robust against random failures, but...targeted failures can have powerful effects – provided the targeter has a good understanding of the network structure. Some argue (convincingly) that all

The highly intelligent virtual agents for modeling financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, G.; Chen, Y.; Huang, J. P.

2016-02-01

Researchers have borrowed many theories from statistical physics, like ensemble, Ising model, etc., to study complex adaptive systems through agent-based modeling. However, one fundamental difference between entities (such as spins) in physics and micro-units in complex adaptive systems is that the latter are usually with high intelligence, such as investors in financial markets. Although highly intelligent virtual agents are essential for agent-based modeling to play a full role in the study of complex adaptive systems, how to create such agents is still an open question. Hence, we propose three principles for designing high artificial intelligence in financial markets and then build a specific class of agents called iAgents based on these three principles. Finally, we evaluate the intelligence of iAgents through virtual index trading in two different stock markets. For comparison, we also include three other types of agents in this contest, namely, random traders, agents from the wealth game (modified on the famous minority game), and agents from an upgraded wealth game. As a result, iAgents perform the best, which gives a well support for the three principles. This work offers a general framework for the further development of agent-based modeling for various kinds of complex adaptive systems.

Exitus: An Agent-Based Evacuation Simulation Model for Heterogeneous Populations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Manley, Matthew T.

2012-01-01

Evacuation planning for private-sector organizations is an important consideration given the continuing occurrence of both natural and human-caused disasters that inordinately affect them. Unfortunately, the traditional management approach that is focused on fire drills presents several practical challenges at the scale required for many…

Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: Lessons from ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Railsback, Steven F.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2005-01-01

Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Agent-Based Complex Systems: Lessons from Ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Railsback, Steven F.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2005-11-01

Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

Self-Organization, Resilience and Robustness of Complex Systems Through an Application to Financial Market from an Agent-Based Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, Iris; Cotsaftis, Michel; Bertelle, Cyrille

This paper introduces the implementation of a computational agent-based financial market model in which the system is described on both microscopic and macroscopic levels. This artificial financial market model is used to study the system response when a shock occurs. Indeed, when a market experiences perturbations, financial systems behavior can exhibit two different properties: resilience and robustness. Through simulations and different scenarios of market shocks, these system properties are studied. The results notably show that the emergence of collective herding behavior when market shock occurs leads to a temporary disruption of the system self-organization. Numerical simulations highlight that the market can absorb strong mono-shocks but can also be led to rupture by low but repeated perturbations.

Agent-based assessment of stormwater re-use potential of low-impact development control facilities at the site of Vlasina Lake, Serbia.

PubMed

Blagojević, Borislava; Milićević, Dragan; Potić, Olivera

2013-01-01

Vlasina Lake in south-east Serbia is classified as an Area of Distinct Land Use and, as such, is subject to high environmental protection standards applied in the Master Plan. Two open channels for stormwater and sediment transportation to two large detention basins with pumping stations for water evacuation into the lake were envisaged in the Master Plan. In the preliminary design, the stormwater system was quite different: wherever possible, on-site natural features were used for allocation of ponds, and drainage channels were led through existing road culverts. The applied design concept has been low impact development (LID), which led to potential blue-green corridors, recognized by project stakeholders. The paper studies the possibility of using ponds as a key element of both the LID concept and the blue-green corridors approach. For that purpose, an initial Vlasina Lake site agent-based simulation model has been created. A realistic physical model is included, and simulation results for two hypothetical climatic and socio-economic scenarios are presented. From the experience in creating the agent-based model, and based on the simulation results, recommendations are given for further work. It is shown that ponds have potential for the investigated water re-use purposes.

An energy budget agent-based model of earthworm populations and its application to study the effects of pesticides

PubMed Central

Johnston, A.S.A.; Hodson, M.E.; Thorbek, P.; Alvarez, T.; Sibly, R.M.

2014-01-01

Earthworms are important organisms in soil communities and so are used as model organisms in environmental risk assessments of chemicals. However current risk assessments of soil invertebrates are based on short-term laboratory studies, of limited ecological relevance, supplemented if necessary by site-specific field trials, which sometimes are challenging to apply across the whole agricultural landscape. Here, we investigate whether population responses to environmental stressors and pesticide exposure can be accurately predicted by combining energy budget and agent-based models (ABMs), based on knowledge of how individuals respond to their local circumstances. A simple energy budget model was implemented within each earthworm Eisenia fetida in the ABM, based on a priori parameter estimates. From broadly accepted physiological principles, simple algorithms specify how energy acquisition and expenditure drive life cycle processes. Each individual allocates energy between maintenance, growth and/or reproduction under varying conditions of food density, soil temperature and soil moisture. When simulating published experiments, good model fits were obtained to experimental data on individual growth, reproduction and starvation. Using the energy budget model as a platform we developed methods to identify which of the physiological parameters in the energy budget model (rates of ingestion, maintenance, growth or reproduction) are primarily affected by pesticide applications, producing four hypotheses about how toxicity acts. We tested these hypotheses by comparing model outputs with published toxicity data on the effects of copper oxychloride and chlorpyrifos on E. fetida. Both growth and reproduction were directly affected in experiments in which sufficient food was provided, whilst maintenance was targeted under food limitation. Although we only incorporate toxic effects at the individual level we show how ABMs can readily extrapolate to larger scales by providing good model fits to field population data. The ability of the presented model to fit the available field and laboratory data for E. fetida demonstrates the promise of the agent-based approach in ecology, by showing how biological knowledge can be used to make ecological inferences. Further work is required to extend the approach to populations of more ecologically relevant species studied at the field scale. Such a model could help extrapolate from laboratory to field conditions and from one set of field conditions to another or from species to species. PMID:25844009

Security Verification Techniques Applied to PatchLink COTS Software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilliam, David P.; Powell, John D.; Bishop, Matt; Andrew, Chris; Jog, Sameer

2006-01-01

Verification of the security of software artifacts is a challenging task. An integrated approach that combines verification techniques can increase the confidence in the security of software artifacts. Such an approach has been developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the University of California at Davis (UC Davis). Two security verification instruments were developed and then piloted on PatchLink's UNIX Agent, a Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) software product, to assess the value of the instruments and the approach. The two instruments are the Flexible Modeling Framework (FMF) -- a model-based verification instrument (JPL), and a Property-Based Tester (UC Davis). Security properties were formally specified for the COTS artifact and then verified using these instruments. The results were then reviewed to determine the effectiveness of the approach and the security of the COTS product.

Agent Based Fault Tolerance for the Mobile Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Taesoon

This paper presents a fault-tolerance scheme based on mobile agents for the reliable mobile computing systems. Mobility of the agent is suitable to trace the mobile hosts and the intelligence of the agent makes it efficient to support the fault tolerance services. This paper presents two approaches to implement the mobile agent based fault tolerant service and their performances are evaluated and compared with other fault-tolerant schemes.

Using Business Process Specification and Agent to Integrate a Scenario Driven Supply Chain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cho, Hyunbo; Kulvatunyou, Boonserm; Jeong, Hanil

2004-07-01

In today's increasingly competitive global market, most enterprises place high priority on reducing order-fulfillment costs, minimizing time-to-market, and maximizing product quality. The desire of businesses to achieve these goals has seen a shift from a make-to-stock paradigm to a make-to-order paradigm. The success of this new paradigm requires robust and efficient supply chain integration and the ability to operate in the business-to-business (B2B) environment. Recent internet-based approaches have enabled instantaneous and secure information sharing among trading partners (i.e., customers, manufacturers, and suppliers). In this paper, we present a framework that enables both integration and B2B operations. This framework uses pre-definedmore » business process specifications (BPS) and agent technologies. The BPS, which specifies a message choreography among the trading partners, is modeled using a modified Unified Modeling Language (UML). The behavior of the enterprise applications within each trading partner -- how they respond to external events specified in the BPS -- is modeled using Petri-nets and implemented as a collection of agents. The concepts and models proposed in this paper should provide the starting point for the formulation of a structured approach to B2B supply chain integration and implementation.« less

A Micro-Level Data-Calibrated Agent-Based Model: The Synergy between Microsimulation and Agent-Based Modeling.

PubMed

Singh, Karandeep; Ahn, Chang-Won; Paik, Euihyun; Bae, Jang Won; Lee, Chun-Hee

2018-01-01

Artificial life (ALife) examines systems related to natural life, its processes, and its evolution, using simulations with computer models, robotics, and biochemistry. In this article, we focus on the computer modeling, or "soft," aspects of ALife and prepare a framework for scientists and modelers to be able to support such experiments. The framework is designed and built to be a parallel as well as distributed agent-based modeling environment, and does not require end users to have expertise in parallel or distributed computing. Furthermore, we use this framework to implement a hybrid model using microsimulation and agent-based modeling techniques to generate an artificial society. We leverage this artificial society to simulate and analyze population dynamics using Korean population census data. The agents in this model derive their decisional behaviors from real data (microsimulation feature) and interact among themselves (agent-based modeling feature) to proceed in the simulation. The behaviors, interactions, and social scenarios of the agents are varied to perform an analysis of population dynamics. We also estimate the future cost of pension policies based on the future population structure of the artificial society. The proposed framework and model demonstrates how ALife techniques can be used by researchers in relation to social issues and policies.

Rational drug design for anti-cancer chemotherapy: multi-target QSAR models for the in silico discovery of anti-colorectal cancer agents.

PubMed

Speck-Planche, Alejandro; Kleandrova, Valeria V; Luan, Feng; Cordeiro, M Natália D S

2012-08-01

The discovery of new and more potent anti-cancer agents constitutes one of the most active fields of research in chemotherapy. Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most studied cancers because of its high prevalence and number of deaths. In the current pharmaceutical design of more efficient anti-CRC drugs, the use of methodologies based on Chemoinformatics has played a decisive role, including Quantitative-Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) techniques. However, until now, there is no methodology able to predict anti-CRC activity of compounds against more than one CRC cell line, which should constitute the principal goal. In an attempt to overcome this problem we develop here the first multi-target (mt) approach for the virtual screening and rational in silico discovery of anti-CRC agents against ten cell lines. Here, two mt-QSAR classification models were constructed using a large and heterogeneous database of compounds. The first model was based on linear discriminant analysis (mt-QSAR-LDA) employing fragment-based descriptors while the second model was obtained using artificial neural networks (mt-QSAR-ANN) with global 2D descriptors. Both models correctly classified more than 90% of active and inactive compounds in training and prediction sets. Some fragments were extracted from the molecules and their contributions to anti-CRC activity were calculated using mt-QSAR-LDA model. Several fragments were identified as potential substructural features responsible for the anti-CRC activity and new molecules designed from those fragments with positive contributions were suggested and correctly predicted by the two models as possible potent and versatile anti-CRC agents. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An agent-based model of farmer decision-making and water quality impacts at the watershed scale under markets for carbon allowances and a second-generation biofuel crop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, Tze Ling; Eheart, J. Wayland; Cai, Ximing; Braden, John B.

2011-09-01

An agent-based model of farmers' crop and best management practice (BMP) decisions is developed and linked to a hydrologic-agronomic model of a watershed, to examine farmer behavior, and the attendant effects on stream nitrate load, under the influence of markets for conventional crops, carbon allowances, and a second-generation biofuel crop. The agent-based approach introduces interactions among farmers about new technologies and market opportunities, and includes the updating of forecast expectations and uncertainties using Bayesian inference. The model is applied to a semi-hypothetical example case of farmers in the Salt Creek Watershed in Central Illinois, and a sensitivity analysis is performed to effect a first-order assessment of the plausibility of the results. The results show that the most influential factors affecting farmers' decisions are crop prices, production costs, and yields. The results also show that different farmer behavioral profiles can lead to different predictions of farmer decisions. The farmers who are predicted to be more likely to adopt new practices are those who interact more with other farmers, are less risk averse, quick to adjust their expectations, and slow to reduce their forecast confidence. The decisions of farmers have direct water quality consequences, especially those pertaining to the adoption of the second-generation biofuel crop, which are estimated to lead to reductions in stream nitrate load. The results, though empirically untested, appear plausible and consistent with general farmer behavior. The results demonstrate the usefulness of the coupled agent-based and hydrologic-agronomic models for normative research on watershed management on the water-energy nexus.

Applying GIS and high performance agent-based simulation for managing an Old World Screwworm fly invasion of Australia.

PubMed

Welch, M C; Kwan, P W; Sajeev, A S M

2014-10-01

Agent-based modelling has proven to be a promising approach for developing rich simulations for complex phenomena that provide decision support functions across a broad range of areas including biological, social and agricultural sciences. This paper demonstrates how high performance computing technologies, namely General-Purpose Computing on Graphics Processing Units (GPGPU), and commercial Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can be applied to develop a national scale, agent-based simulation of an incursion of Old World Screwworm fly (OWS fly) into the Australian mainland. The development of this simulation model leverages the combination of massively data-parallel processing capabilities supported by NVidia's Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) and the advanced spatial visualisation capabilities of GIS. These technologies have enabled the implementation of an individual-based, stochastic lifecycle and dispersal algorithm for the OWS fly invasion. The simulation model draws upon a wide range of biological data as input to stochastically determine the reproduction and survival of the OWS fly through the different stages of its lifecycle and dispersal of gravid females. Through this model, a highly efficient computational platform has been developed for studying the effectiveness of control and mitigation strategies and their associated economic impact on livestock industries can be materialised. Copyright © 2014 International Atomic Energy Agency 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of a simple agent-based model of financial markets: An application to Australian stock and foreign exchange data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfarano, Simone; Lux, Thomas; Wagner, Friedrich

2006-10-01

Following Alfarano et al. [Estimation of agent-based models: the case of an asymmetric herding model, Comput. Econ. 26 (2005) 19-49; Excess volatility and herding in an artificial financial market: analytical approach and estimation, in: W. Franz, H. Ramser, M. Stadler (Eds.), Funktionsfähigkeit und Stabilität von Finanzmärkten, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, 2005, pp. 241-254], we consider a simple agent-based model of a highly stylized financial market. The model takes Kirman's ant process [A. Kirman, Epidemics of opinion and speculative bubbles in financial markets, in: M.P. Taylor (Ed.), Money and Financial Markets, Blackwell, Cambridge, 1991, pp. 354-368; A. Kirman, Ants, rationality, and recruitment, Q. J. Econ. 108 (1993) 137-156] of mimetic contagion as its starting point, but allows for asymmetry in the attractiveness of both groups. Embedding the contagion process into a standard asset-pricing framework, and identifying the abstract groups of the herding model as chartists and fundamentalist traders, a market with periodic bubbles and bursts is obtained. Taking stock of the availability of a closed-form solution for the stationary distribution of returns for this model, we can estimate its parameters via maximum likelihood. Expanding our earlier work, this paper presents pertinent estimates for the Australian dollar/US dollar exchange rate and the Australian stock market index. As it turns out, our model indicates dominance of fundamentalist behavior in both the stock and foreign exchange market.

Dynamic calibration of agent-based models using data assimilation.

PubMed

Ward, Jonathan A; Evans, Andrew J; Malleson, Nicolas S

2016-04-01

A widespread approach to investigating the dynamical behaviour of complex social systems is via agent-based models (ABMs). In this paper, we describe how such models can be dynamically calibrated using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a standard method of data assimilation. Our goal is twofold. First, we want to present the EnKF in a simple setting for the benefit of ABM practitioners who are unfamiliar with it. Second, we want to illustrate to data assimilation experts the value of using such methods in the context of ABMs of complex social systems and the new challenges these types of model present. We work towards these goals within the context of a simple question of practical value: how many people are there in Leeds (or any other major city) right now? We build a hierarchy of exemplar models that we use to demonstrate how to apply the EnKF and calibrate these using open data of footfall counts in Leeds.

Agent-based model of diffusion of N-acyl homoserine lactones in a multicellular environment of Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Candida albicans.

PubMed

Pérez-Rodríguez, Gael; Dias, Sónia; Pérez-Pérez, Martín; Fdez-Riverola, Florentino; Azevedo, Nuno F; Lourenço, Anália

2018-03-08

Experimental incapacity to track microbe-microbe interactions in structures like biofilms, and the complexity inherent to the mathematical modelling of those interactions, raises the need for feasible, alternative modelling approaches. This work proposes an agent-based representation of the diffusion of N-acyl homoserine lactones (AHL) in a multicellular environment formed by Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Candida albicans. Depending on the spatial location, C. albicans cells were variably exposed to AHLs, an observation that might help explain why phenotypic switching of individual cells in biofilms occurred at different time points. The simulation and algebraic results were similar for simpler scenarios, although some statistical differences could be observed (p < 0.05). The model was also successfully applied to a more complex scenario representing a small multicellular environment containing C. albicans and P. aeruginosa cells encased in a 3-D matrix. Further development of this model may help create a predictive tool to depict biofilm heterogeneity at the single-cell level.

An industrial information integration approach to in-orbit spacecraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Xiaoning; Wang, Hong; Du, Yuhao; Xu, Li Da; Chaudhry, Sohail; Bi, Zhuming; Guo, Rong; Huang, Yongxuan; Li, Jisheng

2017-01-01

To operate an in-orbit spacecraft, the spacecraft status has to be monitored autonomously by collecting and analysing real-time data, and then detecting abnormities and malfunctions of system components. To develop an information system for spacecraft state detection, we investigate the feasibility of using ontology-based artificial intelligence in the system development. We propose a new modelling technique based on the semantic web, agent, scenarios and ontologies model. In modelling, the subjects of astronautics fields are classified, corresponding agents and scenarios are defined, and they are connected by the semantic web to analyse data and detect failures. We introduce the modelling methodologies and the resulted framework of the status detection information system in this paper. We discuss system components as well as their interactions in details. The system has been prototyped and tested to illustrate its feasibility and effectiveness. The proposed modelling technique is generic which can be extended and applied to the system development of other large-scale and complex information systems.

Macrophage Transactivation for Chemokine Production Identified as a Negative Regulator of Granulomatous Inflammation Using Agent-Based Modeling.

PubMed

Moyo, Daniel; Beattie, Lynette; Andrews, Paul S; Moore, John W J; Timmis, Jon; Sawtell, Amy; Hoehme, Stefan; Sampson, Adam T; Kaye, Paul M

2018-01-01

Cellular activation in trans by interferons, cytokines, and chemokines is a commonly recognized mechanism to amplify immune effector function and limit pathogen spread. However, an optimal host response also requires that collateral damage associated with inflammation is limited. This may be particularly so in the case of granulomatous inflammation, where an excessive number and/or excessively florid granulomas can have significant pathological consequences. Here, we have combined transcriptomics, agent-based modeling, and in vivo experimental approaches to study constraints on hepatic granuloma formation in a murine model of experimental leishmaniasis. We demonstrate that chemokine production by non-infected Kupffer cells in the Leishmania donovani -infected liver promotes competition with infected KCs for available iNKT cells, ultimately inhibiting the extent of granulomatous inflammation. We propose trans-activation for chemokine production as a novel broadly applicable mechanism that may operate early in infection to limit excessive focal inflammation.

Optical detection of chemical warfare agents and toxic industrial chemicals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webber, Michael E.; Pushkarsky, Michael B.; Patel, C. Kumar N.

2004-12-01

We present an analytical model evaluating the suitability of optical absorption based spectroscopic techniques for detection of chemical warfare agents (CWAs) and toxic industrial chemicals (TICs) in ambient air. The sensor performance is modeled by simulating absorption spectra of a sample containing both the target and multitude of interfering species as well as an appropriate stochastic noise and determining the target concentrations from the simulated spectra via a least square fit (LSF) algorithm. The distribution of the LSF target concentrations determines the sensor sensitivity, probability of false positives (PFP) and probability of false negatives (PFN). The model was applied to CO2 laser based photoacosutic (L-PAS) CWA sensor and predicted single digit ppb sensitivity with very low PFP rates in the presence of significant amount of interferences. This approach will be useful for assessing sensor performance by developers and users alike; it also provides methodology for inter-comparison of different sensing technologies.

Reducing Traffic Congestions by Introducing CACC-Vehicles on a Multi-Lane Highway Using Agent-Based Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnaout, Georges M.; Bowling, Shannon R.

2011-01-01

Traffic congestion is an ongoing problem of great interest to researchers from different areas in academia. With the emerging technology for inter-vehicle communication, vehicles have the ability to exchange information with predecessors by wireless communication. In this paper, we present an agent-based model of traffic congestion and examine the impact of having CACC (Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control) embedded vehicle(s) on a highway system consisting of 4 traffic lanes without overtaking. In our model, CACC vehicles adapt their acceleration/deceleration according to vehicle-to-vehicle inter-communication. We analyze the average speed of the cars, the shockwaves, and the evolution of traffic congestion throughout the lifecycle of the model. The study identifies how CACC vehicles affect the dynamics of traffic flow on a complex network and reduce the oscillatory behavior (stop and go) resulting from the acceleration/deceleration of the vehicles.

From synthetic modeling of social interaction to dynamic theories of brain-body-environment-body-brain systems.

PubMed

Froese, Tom; Iizuka, Hiroyuki; Ikegami, Takashi

2013-08-01

Synthetic approaches to social interaction support the development of a second-person neuroscience. Agent-based models and psychological experiments can be related in a mutually informing manner. Models have the advantage of making the nonlinear brain-body-environment-body-brain system as a whole accessible to analysis by dynamical systems theory. We highlight some general principles of how social interaction can partially constitute an individual's behavior.

Neighbourhood food, physical activity, and educational environments and black/white disparities in obesity: a complex systems simulation analysis.

PubMed

Orr, Mark G; Kaplan, George A; Galea, Sandro

2016-09-01

Multiple approaches that can contribute to reducing obesity have been proposed. These policies may share overlapping pathways, and may have unanticipated consequences, creating considerable complexity. Aiming to illuminate the use of agent-based models to explore the consequences of key policies, this paper simulates the effects of increasing neighbourhood availability of good food stores, physical activity infrastructure and higher school quality on the reduction of black/white disparities in body mass index (BMI) in the USA. We used an agent-based model, with parameters derived from the empirical literature, which included individual and neighbourhood characteristics over the life course as determinants of behaviours thought to impact BMI. We systematically varied the strength of the 3 policy interventions, examining the impact of 125 different policy scenarios on black/white BMI disparities. In the absence of any of these policies, black/white BMI disparities generally increased over time. However, we found that some combinations of these policies resulted in reductions in BMI, yielding decreases in the black/white BMI disparity as large as a 90%. Within the structure of relationships captured in this simulation model, there is support for the further use of agent-based simulation models to explore upstream policies as plausible candidates for the reduction of black/white disparities in BMI. These results highlight the potential insights into important public health problems, such as obesity, that can come from uniting the systems science approach with policy analysis. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

An Inverse Analysis Approach to the Characterization of Chemical Transport in Paints

PubMed Central

Willis, Matthew P.; Stevenson, Shawn M.; Pearl, Thomas P.; Mantooth, Brent A.

2014-01-01

The ability to directly characterize chemical transport and interactions that occur within a material (i.e., subsurface dynamics) is a vital component in understanding contaminant mass transport and the ability to decontaminate materials. If a material is contaminated, over time, the transport of highly toxic chemicals (such as chemical warfare agent species) out of the material can result in vapor exposure or transfer to the skin, which can result in percutaneous exposure to personnel who interact with the material. Due to the high toxicity of chemical warfare agents, the release of trace chemical quantities is of significant concern. Mapping subsurface concentration distribution and transport characteristics of absorbed agents enables exposure hazards to be assessed in untested conditions. Furthermore, these tools can be used to characterize subsurface reaction dynamics to ultimately design improved decontaminants or decontamination procedures. To achieve this goal, an inverse analysis mass transport modeling approach was developed that utilizes time-resolved mass spectroscopy measurements of vapor emission from contaminated paint coatings as the input parameter for calculation of subsurface concentration profiles. Details are provided on sample preparation, including contaminant and material handling, the application of mass spectrometry for the measurement of emitted contaminant vapor, and the implementation of inverse analysis using a physics-based diffusion model to determine transport properties of live chemical warfare agents including distilled mustard (HD) and the nerve agent VX. PMID:25226346

A Collective Case Study of Secondary Students' Model-Based Inquiry on Natural Selection through Programming in an Agent-Based Modeling Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xiang, Lin

2011-01-01

This is a collective case study seeking to develop detailed descriptions of how programming an agent-based simulation influences a group of 8th grade students' model-based inquiry (MBI) by examining students' agent-based programmable modeling (ABPM) processes and the learning outcomes. The context of the present study was a biology unit on…

Data-driven agent-based modeling, with application to rooftop solar adoption

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Haifeng; Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy; Letchford, Joshua

Agent-based modeling is commonly used for studying complex system properties emergent from interactions among many agents. We present a novel data-driven agent-based modeling framework applied to forecasting individual and aggregate residential rooftop solar adoption in San Diego county. Our first step is to learn a model of individual agent behavior from combined data of individual adoption characteristics and property assessment. We then construct an agent-based simulation with the learned model embedded in artificial agents, and proceed to validate it using a holdout sequence of collective adoption decisions. We demonstrate that the resulting agent-based model successfully forecasts solar adoption trends andmore » provides a meaningful quantification of uncertainty about its predictions. We utilize our model to optimize two classes of policies aimed at spurring solar adoption: one that subsidizes the cost of adoption, and another that gives away free systems to low-income house- holds. We find that the optimal policies derived for the latter class are significantly more efficacious, whereas the policies similar to the current California Solar Initiative incentive scheme appear to have a limited impact on overall adoption trends.« less

Data-driven agent-based modeling, with application to rooftop solar adoption

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Haifeng; Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy; Letchford, Joshua; ...

2016-01-25

Agent-based modeling is commonly used for studying complex system properties emergent from interactions among many agents. We present a novel data-driven agent-based modeling framework applied to forecasting individual and aggregate residential rooftop solar adoption in San Diego county. Our first step is to learn a model of individual agent behavior from combined data of individual adoption characteristics and property assessment. We then construct an agent-based simulation with the learned model embedded in artificial agents, and proceed to validate it using a holdout sequence of collective adoption decisions. We demonstrate that the resulting agent-based model successfully forecasts solar adoption trends andmore » provides a meaningful quantification of uncertainty about its predictions. We utilize our model to optimize two classes of policies aimed at spurring solar adoption: one that subsidizes the cost of adoption, and another that gives away free systems to low-income house- holds. We find that the optimal policies derived for the latter class are significantly more efficacious, whereas the policies similar to the current California Solar Initiative incentive scheme appear to have a limited impact on overall adoption trends.« less

Disaggregation and Refinement of System Dynamics Models via Agent-based Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nutaro, James J; Ozmen, Ozgur; Schryver, Jack C

System dynamics models are usually used to investigate aggregate level behavior, but these models can be decomposed into agents that have more realistic individual behaviors. Here we develop a simple model of the STEM workforce to illuminate the impacts that arise from the disaggregation and refinement of system dynamics models via agent-based modeling. Particularly, alteration of Poisson assumptions, adding heterogeneity to decision-making processes of agents, and discrete-time formulation are investigated and their impacts are illustrated. The goal is to demonstrate both the promise and danger of agent-based modeling in the context of a relatively simple model and to delineate themore » importance of modeling decisions that are often overlooked.« less

Peptide Based Radiopharmaceuticals: Specific Construct Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Som, P; Rhodes, B A; Sharma, S S

1997-10-21

The objective of this project was to develop receptor based peptides for diagnostic imaging and therapy. A series of peptides related to cell adhesion molecules (CAM) and immune regulation were designed for radiolabeling with 99mTc and evaluated in animal models as potential diagnostic imaging agents for various disease conditions such as thrombus (clot), acute kidney failure, and inflection/inflammation imaging. The peptides for this project were designed by the industrial partner, Palatin Technologies, (formerly Rhomed, Inc.) using various peptide design approaches including a newly developed rational computer assisted drug design (CADD) approach termed MIDAS (Metal ion Induced Distinctive Array of Structures).more » In this approach, the biological function domain and the 99mTc complexing domain are fused together so that structurally these domains are indistinguishable. This approach allows construction of conformationally rigid metallo-peptide molecules (similar to cyclic peptides) that are metabolically stable in-vivo. All the newly designed peptides were screened in various in vitro receptor binding and functional assays to identify a lead compound. The lead compounds were formulated in a one-step 99mTc labeling kit form which were studied by BNL for detailed in-vivo imaging using various animals models of human disease. Two main peptides usingMIDAS approach evolved and were investigated: RGD peptide for acute renal failure and an immunomodulatory peptide derived from tuftsin (RMT-1) for infection/inflammation imaging. Various RGD based metallopeptides were designed, synthesized and assayed for their efficacy in inhibiting ADP-induced human platelet aggregation. Most of these peptides displayed biological activity in the 1-100 µM range. Based on previous work by others, RGD-I and RGD-II were evaluated in animal models of acute renal failure. These earlier studies showed that after acute ischemic injury the renal cortex displays RGD receptor with higher density. The results have indicated good diagnostic potential for their use in this clinical situation, as an imaging agent to diagnose ischemic renal injury and differentiate from other causes. Very promising results were obtained with newly developed tuftsin related metallopeptides. A number of these peptides displayed high potency (nM range) in imaging infection. Antagonists were successfully used to image experimentally induced abscesses in rodents. One of the antagonists, termed 99mTc-RMT-1, was evaluated in rabbits and dogs for its applicability as infection/inflammation imaging agent. Both in dog and rabbit infection/inflammation models 99mTc-RMT-1 could be used for rapid scintigraphic diagnosis. A very high and rapid uptake was observed in both soft tissue and bone infection providing a good target to background contrast. The agent also allowed distinction between bone fracture and osteomyelitis. All these results warrant human clinical trials with 99mTc-RMT-1 which may help replace hazardous ex-vivo WBC labeling procedures that are current clincial modality for imaging infection foci.« less

[Methodological novelties applied to the anthropology of food: agent-based models and social networks analysis].

PubMed

Díaz Córdova, Diego

2016-01-01

The aim of this article is to introduce two methodological strategies that have not often been utilized in the anthropology of food: agent-based models and social networks analysis. In order to illustrate these methods in action, two cases based in materials typical of the anthropology of food are presented. For the first strategy, fieldwork carried out in Quebrada de Humahuaca (province of Jujuy, Argentina) regarding meal recall was used, and for the second, elements of the concept of "domestic consumption strategies" applied by Aguirre were employed. The underlying idea is that, given that eating is recognized as a "total social fact" and, therefore, as a complex phenomenon, the methodological approach must also be characterized by complexity. The greater the number of methods utilized (with the appropriate rigor), the better able we will be to understand the dynamics of feeding in the social environment.

Applications of agent-based modeling to nutrient movement Lake Michigan

EPA Science Inventory

As part of an ongoing project aiming to provide useful information for nearshore management (harmful algal blooms, nutrient loading), we explore the value of agent-based models in Lake Michigan. Agent-based models follow many individual “agents” moving through a simul...

An Agent-Based Dynamic Model for Analysis of Distributed Space Exploration Architectures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sindiy, Oleg V.; DeLaurentis, Daniel A.; Stein, William B.

2009-07-01

A range of complex challenges, but also potentially unique rewards, underlie the development of exploration architectures that use a distributed, dynamic network of resources across the solar system. From a methodological perspective, the prime challenge is to systematically model the evolution (and quantify comparative performance) of such architectures, under uncertainty, to effectively direct further study of specialized trajectories, spacecraft technologies, concept of operations, and resource allocation. A process model for System-of-Systems Engineering is used to define time-varying performance measures for comparative architecture analysis and identification of distinguishing patterns among interoperating systems. Agent-based modeling serves as the means to create a discrete-time simulation that generates dynamics for the study of architecture evolution. A Solar System Mobility Network proof-of-concept problem is introduced representing a set of longer-term, distributed exploration architectures. Options within this set revolve around deployment of human and robotic exploration and infrastructure assets, their organization, interoperability, and evolution, i.e., a system-of-systems. Agent-based simulations quantify relative payoffs for a fully distributed architecture (which can be significant over the long term), the latency period before they are manifest, and the up-front investment (which can be substantial compared to alternatives). Verification and sensitivity results provide further insight on development paths and indicate that the framework and simulation modeling approach may be useful in architectural design of other space exploration mass, energy, and information exchange settings.

Economics and econophysics in the era of Big Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheong, Siew Ann

2016-12-01

There is an undeniable disconnect between theory-heavy economics and the real world, and some cross polination of ideas with econophysics, which is more balanced between data and models, might help economics along the way to become a truly scientific enterprise. With the coming of the era of Big Data, this transformation of economics into a data-driven science is becoming more urgent. In this article, I use the story of Kepler's discovery of his three laws of planetary motion to enlarge the framework of the scientific approach, from one that focuses on experimental sciences, to one that accommodates observational sciences, and further to one that embraces data mining and machine learning. I distinguish between the ontological values of Kepler's Laws vis-a-vis Newton's Laws, and argue that the latter is more fundamental because it is able to explain the former. I then argue that the fundamental laws of economics lie not in mathematical equations, but in models of adaptive economic agents. With this shift in mind set, it becomes possible to think about how interactions between agents can lead to the emergence of multiple stable states and critical transitions, and complex adaptive policies and regulations that might actually work in the real world. Finally, I discuss how Big Data, exploratory agent-based modeling, and predictive agent-based modeling can come together in a unified framework to make economics a true science.

Behavior believability in virtual worlds: agents acting when they need to.

PubMed

Avradinis, Nikos; Panayiotopoulos, Themis; Anastassakis, George

2013-12-01

Believability has been a perennial goal for the intelligent virtual agent community. One important aspect of believability largely consists in demonstrating autonomous behavior, consistent with the agent's personality and motivational state, as well as the world conditions. Autonomy, on behalf of the agent, implies the existence of an internal structure and mechanism that allows the agent to have its own needs and interests, based on which the agent will dynamically select and generate goals that will in turn lead to self-determined behavior. Intrinsic motivation allows the agent to function and demonstrate behavior, even when no external stimulus is present, due to the constant change of its internal emotional and physiological state. The concept of motivation has already been investigated by research works on intelligent agents, trying to achieve autonomy. The current work presents an architecture and model to represent and manage internal driving factors in intelligent virtual agents, using the concept of motivations. Based on Maslow and Alderfer's bio-psychological needs theories, we present a motivational approach to represent human needs and produce emergent behavior through motivation synthesis. Particular attention is given to basic, physiological level needs, which are the basis of behavior and can produce tendency to action even when there is no other interaction with the environment.

Novel thrombin and factor Xa inhibitors: challenges to reversal of their anticoagulation effects.

PubMed

Yates, Sean; Sarode, Ravi

2013-11-01

Warfarin has been the sole oral anticoagulant used in the management of thromboembolic disorders for over 60 years. Target-specific oral anticoagulants (TSOAs) have recently emerged as alternatives to warfarin, because they do not require laboratory monitoring. Nevertheless, with the rising use of TSOAs, there is growing concern among clinicians regarding management of bleeding in patients taking them. Unlike warfarin, there is no antidote or reversal agent for TSOAs. This review summarizes recent developments and attempts to provide a systematic approach to patients on TSOAs presenting with bleeding complications. Currently, data involving clinical management of TSOAs are limited and primarily based on ex-vivo or animal models using hemostatic agents with uncertain implications in bleeding patients. There is a pressing need for randomized clinical trials evaluating the safety and efficacy of hemostatic agents. Without evidence-based guidelines for TSOA management, appropriate patient care requires an understanding of TSOA pharmacology, their effect on coagulation tests and, hence, a correct interpretation of test results, as well as a systematic approach to bleeding complications.

Ecology Based Decentralized Agent Management System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peysakhov, Maxim D.; Cicirello, Vincent A.; Regli, William C.

2004-01-01

The problem of maintaining a desired number of mobile agents on a network is not trivial, especially if we want a completely decentralized solution. Decentralized control makes a system more r e bust and less susceptible to partial failures. The problem is exacerbated on wireless ad hoc networks where host mobility can result in significant changes in the network size and topology. In this paper we propose an ecology-inspired approach to the management of the number of agents. The approach associates agents with living organisms and tasks with food. Agents procreate or die based on the abundance of uncompleted tasks (food). We performed a series of experiments investigating properties of such systems and analyzed their stability under various conditions. We concluded that the ecology based metaphor can be successfully applied to the management of agent populations on wireless ad hoc networks.

Dreams of a Digital Riverscape Ecosystem (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fonstad, M. A.; Blanton, P.

2013-12-01

The explosion of methods for acquiring riverscape topography and bathymetry is producing a revolution in our abilities to measure the forms and processes of river environments. For example, the acquisition of continuous downstream maps of river topography and substrate particle sizes has allowed researchers to test the sediment links concept and to locate the positions and extents of such links in gravel bed streams using a 'hyperscale' framework. Related approaches have allowed researchers to map the distribution of salmon spawning habitat patches and the least-cost connectivity between these habitat patches. In our switch from the traditional use of separated cross-sections to a continuous 2D or 3D digital environment, several conceptual ideas need to be evaluated. One of these is the idea that 'habitat', as used by mobile organisms, is a characteristic directly tied to physical characteristics of a 'place', often represented as habitat preference on a per-pixel basis. One of the difficulties with this idea is that mobile organisms interact with their local environments at a variety of scales, and their sensory organs allow them to sense an environment that may extend beyond one pixel. Similarly, mobile organisms can interact with other mobile organisms in such a way as to make their preferred locations different from those that would occur if one organism is being observed individually. As we do not have the ability to remotely sense all of the mobile organisms and their positions in a riverscape, we need new methods of analyzing river data that can better estimate both physical and biological attributes for rivers. To develop new approaches for analyzing mapped riverscape processes, we use hyperscale and connectivity analyses for salmon spawning habitat in the River Tromie in Scotland. For Scott Creek, a gravel-bedded river in the Oregon Cascades, we use agent-based models of Chinook salmon and of macroinvertebrates to connect high-resolution physical environments to likely organism locations in Scott Creek, Oregon. The scale that macroinvertebrates and salmon sense their environment is in the centimeter to decimeter range, and we use structure from motion and 2D velocity modeling approaches to produce digital physical environments in which our model agents can interacts. By hypothesizing rules of agent movement and interactions, the histories of digital organism interactions can produce maps of habitat preference that include both the physical habitat characteristics and the likely patterns due to organism interactions. One of the challenges in the future will be to scale these approaches up to larger areas and a more diverse set of ecosystem interactions. Validation of agent-based models also poses a challenge in river environments with diverse physical characteristics and histories. By combining agent-based and high-resolution approaches, many stream ecology and fluvial theories might be much more easily tested, such as whether or not habitat heterogeneity drives biodiversity in river systems.

Developing a Conceptual Architecture for a Generalized Agent-based Modeling Environment (GAME)

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

4. REPAST (Java, Python , C#, Open Source) ........28 5. MASON: Multi-Agent Modeling Language (Swarm Extension... Python , C#, Open Source) Repast (Recursive Porous Agent Simulation Toolkit) was designed for building agent-based models and simulations in the...Repast makes it easy for inexperienced users to build models by including a built-in simple model and provide interfaces through which menus and Python

Two Formal Gas Models For Multi-Agent Sweeping and Obstacle Avoidance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerr, Wesley; Spears, Diana; Spears, William; Thayer, David

2004-01-01

The task addressed here is a dynamic search through a bounded region, while avoiding multiple large obstacles, such as buildings. In the case of limited sensors and communication, maintaining spatial coverage - especially after passing the obstacles - is a challenging problem. Here, we investigate two physics-based approaches to solving this task with multiple simulated mobile robots, one based on artificial forces and the other based on the kinetic theory of gases. The desired behavior is achieved with both methods, and a comparison is made between them. Because both approaches are physics-based, formal assurances about the multi-robot behavior are straightforward, and are included in the paper.

Charecterisation and Modelling Urbanisation Pattern in Sillicon Valley of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aithal, B. H.

2015-12-01

Urbanisation and Urban sprawl has led to environmental problems and large losses of arable land in India. In this study, we characterise pattern of urban growth and model urban sprawl by means of a combination of remote sensing, geographical information system, spatial metrics and CA based modelling. This analysis uses time-series data to explore and derive the potential political-socio-economic- land based driving forces behind urbanisation and urban sprawl, and spatial models in different scenarios to explore the spatio-temporal interactions and development. The study area applied is Greater Bangalore, for the period from 1973 to 2015. Further water bodies depletion, vegetation depletion, tree cover were also analysed to obtain specific region based results effecting global climate and regional balance. Agents were integrated successfully into modelling aspects to understand and foresee the landscape pattern change in urban morphology. The results reveal built-up paved surfaces has expanded towards the outskirts and have expanded into the buffer regions around the city. Population growth, economic, industrial developments in the city core and transportation development are still the main causes of urban sprawl in the region. Agent based model are considered to be to the traditional models. Agent Based modelling approach as seen in this paper clearly shown its effectiveness in capturing the micro dynamics and influence in its neighbourhood mapping. Greenhouse gas emission inventory has shown important aspects such as domestic sector to be one of the major impact categories in the region. Further tree cover reduced drastically and is evident from the statistics and determines that if city is in verge of creating a chaos in terms of human health and desertification. Study concludes that integration of remote sensing, GIS, and agent based modelling offers an excellent opportunity to explore the spatio-temporal variation and visulaisation of sprawling metropolitan region. This study give a complete overview of urbanisation and effects being caused due to urban sprawl in the region and help planners and city managers in understanding the future pockets and scenarios of urban growth.

Reducing Urban Violence: A Contrast of Public Health and Criminal Justice Approaches.

PubMed

Cerdá, Magdalena; Tracy, Melissa; Keyes, Katherine M

2018-01-01

Cities are investing millions in Cure Violence, a public health approach to reduce urban violence by targeting at-risk youth and redirecting conflict to nonviolent responses. The impact of such a program compared with criminal justice responses is unknown because experiments directly comparing criminal justice and public health approaches to violence prevention are infeasible with observational data. We simulated experiments to test the influence of two interventions on violence: (1) Cure Violence and (2) directed police patrol in violence hot spots. We used an agent-based model to simulate a 5% sample of the New York City (NYC) adult population, with agents placed on a grid representing the land area of NYC, with neighborhood size and population density proportional to land area and population density in each community district. Agent behaviors were governed by parameters drawn from city data sources and published estimates. Under no intervention, 3.87% (95% CI, 3.84, 3.90) of agents were victimized per year. Implementing the violence interrupter intervention for 10 years decreased victimization by 13% (to 3.35% [3.32, 3.39]). Implementing hot-spots policing and doubling the police force for 10 years reduced annual victimization by about 11% (to 3.46% [3.42, 3.49]). Increasing the police force by 40% combined with implementing the violence interrupter intervention for 10 years decreased violence by 19% (to 3.13% [3.09, 3.16]). Combined investment in a public health, community-based approach to violence prevention and a criminal justice approach focused on deterrence can achieve more to reduce population-level rates of urban violence than either can in isolation. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B298.

Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis in an agent-based model of Leishmania major infection

PubMed Central

Jones, Douglas E.; Dorman, Karin S.

2009-01-01

Computer models of disease take a systems biology approach toward understanding host-pathogen interactions. In particular, data driven computer model calibration is the basis for inference of immunological and pathogen parameters, assessment of model validity, and comparison between alternative models of immune or pathogen behavior. In this paper we describe the calibration and analysis of an agent-based model of Leishmania major infection. A model of macrophage loss following uptake of necrotic tissue is proposed to explain macrophage depletion following peak infection. Using Gaussian processes to approximate the computer code, we perform a sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters and to characterize their influence on the simulated infection. The analysis indicates that increasing growth rate can favor or suppress pathogen loads, depending on the infection stage and the pathogen’s ability to avoid detection. Subsequent calibration of the model against previously published biological observations suggests that L. major has a relatively slow growth rate and can replicate for an extended period of time before damaging the host cell. PMID:19837088

Building occupancy simulation and data assimilation using a graph-based agent-oriented model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, Sanish; Hu, Xiaolin

2018-07-01

Building occupancy simulation and estimation simulates the dynamics of occupants and estimates their real-time spatial distribution in a building. It requires a simulation model and an algorithm for data assimilation that assimilates real-time sensor data into the simulation model. Existing building occupancy simulation models include agent-based models and graph-based models. The agent-based models suffer high computation cost for simulating large numbers of occupants, and graph-based models overlook the heterogeneity and detailed behaviors of individuals. Recognizing the limitations of existing models, this paper presents a new graph-based agent-oriented model which can efficiently simulate large numbers of occupants in various kinds of building structures. To support real-time occupancy dynamics estimation, a data assimilation framework based on Sequential Monte Carlo Methods is also developed and applied to the graph-based agent-oriented model to assimilate real-time sensor data. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the developed model and the data assimilation framework. The major contributions of this work are to provide an efficient model for building occupancy simulation that can accommodate large numbers of occupants and an effective data assimilation framework that can provide real-time estimations of building occupancy from sensor data.

Agent-based modeling of the spread of the 1918-1919 flu in three Canadian fur trading communities.

PubMed

O'Neil, Caroline A; Sattenspiel, Lisa

2010-01-01

Previous attempts to study the 1918-1919 flu in three small communities in central Manitoba have used both three-community population-based and single-community agent-based models. These studies identified critical factors influencing epidemic spread, but they also left important questions unanswered. The objective of this project was to design a more realistic agent-based model that would overcome limitations of earlier models and provide new insights into these outstanding questions. The new model extends the previous agent-based model to three communities so that results can be compared to those from the population-based model. Sensitivity testing was conducted, and the new model was used to investigate the influence of seasonal settlement and mobility patterns, the geographic heterogeneity of the observed 1918-1919 epidemic in Manitoba, and other questions addressed previously. Results confirm outcomes from the population-based model that suggest that (a) social organization and mobility strongly influence the timing and severity of epidemics and (b) the impact of the epidemic would have been greater if it had arrived in the summer rather than the winter. New insights from the model suggest that the observed heterogeneity among communities in epidemic impact was not unusual and would have been the expected outcome given settlement structure and levels of interaction among communities. Application of an agent-based computer simulation has helped to better explain observed patterns of spread of the 1918-1919 flu epidemic in central Manitoba. Contrasts between agent-based and population-based models illustrate the advantages of agent-based models for the study of small populations. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Computational Systems Biology in Cancer: Modeling Methods and Applications

PubMed Central

Materi, Wayne; Wishart, David S.

2007-01-01

In recent years it has become clear that carcinogenesis is a complex process, both at the molecular and cellular levels. Understanding the origins, growth and spread of cancer, therefore requires an integrated or system-wide approach. Computational systems biology is an emerging sub-discipline in systems biology that utilizes the wealth of data from genomic, proteomic and metabolomic studies to build computer simulations of intra and intercellular processes. Several useful descriptive and predictive models of the origin, growth and spread of cancers have been developed in an effort to better understand the disease and potential therapeutic approaches. In this review we describe and assess the practical and theoretical underpinnings of commonly-used modeling approaches, including ordinary and partial differential equations, petri nets, cellular automata, agent based models and hybrid systems. A number of computer-based formalisms have been implemented to improve the accessibility of the various approaches to researchers whose primary interest lies outside of model development. We discuss several of these and describe how they have led to novel insights into tumor genesis, growth, apoptosis, vascularization and therapy. PMID:19936081

Mechanisms of chemoresistance to alkylating agents in malignant glioma.

PubMed

Sarkaria, Jann N; Kitange, Gaspar J; James, C David; Plummer, Ruth; Calvert, Hilary; Weller, Michael; Wick, Wolfgang

2008-05-15

Intrinsic or acquired chemoresistance to alkylating agents is a major cause of treatment failure in patients with malignant brain tumors. Alkylating agents, the mainstay of treatment for brain tumors, damage the DNA and induce apoptosis, but the cytotoxic activity of these agents is dependent on DNA repair pathways. For example, O6-methylguanine DNA adducts can cause double-strand breaks, but this is dependent on a functional mismatch repair pathway. Thus, tumor cell lines deficient in mismatch repair are resistant to alkylating agents. Perhaps the most important mechanism of resistance to alkylating agents is the DNA repair enzyme O6-methylguanine methyltransferase, which can eliminate the cytotoxic O6-methylguanine DNA adduct before it causes harm. Another mechanism of resistance to alkylating agents is the base excision repair (BER) pathway. Consequently, efforts are ongoing to develop effective inhibitors of BER. Poly(ADP-ribose)polymerase plays a pivotal role in BER and is an important therapeutic target. Developing effective strategies to overcome chemoresistance requires the identification of reliable preclinical models that recapitulate human disease and which can be used to facilitate drug development. This article describes the diverse mechanisms of chemoresistance operating in malignant glioma and efforts to develop reliable preclinical models and novel pharmacologic approaches to overcome resistance to alkylating agents.

A trust-based sensor allocation algorithm in cooperative space search problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Dan; Chen, Genshe; Pham, Khanh; Blasch, Erik

2011-06-01

Sensor allocation is an important and challenging problem within the field of multi-agent systems. The sensor allocation problem involves deciding how to assign a number of targets or cells to a set of agents according to some allocation protocol. Generally, in order to make efficient allocations, we need to design mechanisms that consider both the task performers' costs for the service and the associated probability of success (POS). In our problem, the costs are the used sensor resource, and the POS is the target tracking performance. Usually, POS may be perceived differently by different agents because they typically have different standards or means of evaluating the performance of their counterparts (other sensors in the search and tracking problem). Given this, we turn to the notion of trust to capture such subjective perceptions. In our approach, we develop a trust model to construct a novel mechanism that motivates sensor agents to limit their greediness or selfishness. Then we model the sensor allocation optimization problem with trust-in-loop negotiation game and solve it using a sub-game perfect equilibrium. Numerical simulations are performed to demonstrate the trust-based sensor allocation algorithm in cooperative space situation awareness (SSA) search problems.

Unsilencing Critical Conversations in Social-Studies Teacher Education Using Agent-Based Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hostetler, Andrew; Sengupta, Pratim; Hollett, Ty

2018-01-01

In this article, we argue that when complex sociopolitical issues such as ethnocentrism and racial segregation are represented as complex, emergent systems using agent-based computational models (in short agent-based models or ABMs), discourse about these representations can disrupt social studies teacher candidates' dispositions of teaching…

Assessing the Moral Coherence and Moral Robustness of Social Systems: Proof of Concept for a Graphical Models Approach.

PubMed

Hoss, Frauke; London, Alex John

2016-12-01

This paper presents a proof of concept for a graphical models approach to assessing the moral coherence and moral robustness of systems of social interactions. "Moral coherence" refers to the degree to which the rights and duties of agents within a system are effectively respected when agents in the system comply with the rights and duties that are recognized as in force for the relevant context of interaction. "Moral robustness" refers to the degree to which a system of social interaction is configured to ensure that the interests of agents are effectively respected even in the face of noncompliance. Using the case of conscientious objection of pharmacists to filling prescriptions for emergency contraception as an example, we illustrate how a graphical models approach can help stakeholders identify structural weaknesses in systems of social interaction and evaluate the relative merits of alternate organizational structures. By illustrating the merits of a graphical models approach we hope to spur further developments in this area.

Brief introductory guide to agent-based modeling and an illustration from urban health research.

PubMed

Auchincloss, Amy H; Garcia, Leandro Martin Totaro

2015-11-01

There is growing interest among urban health researchers in addressing complex problems using conceptual and computation models from the field of complex systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is one computational modeling tool that has received a lot of interest. However, many researchers remain unfamiliar with developing and carrying out an ABM, hindering the understanding and application of it. This paper first presents a brief introductory guide to carrying out a simple agent-based model. Then, the method is illustrated by discussing a previously developed agent-based model, which explored inequalities in diet in the context of urban residential segregation.

Brief introductory guide to agent-based modeling and an illustration from urban health research

PubMed Central

Auchincloss, Amy H.; Garcia, Leandro Martin Totaro

2017-01-01

There is growing interest among urban health researchers in addressing complex problems using conceptual and computation models from the field of complex systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is one computational modeling tool that has received a lot of interest. However, many researchers remain unfamiliar with developing and carrying out an ABM, hindering the understanding and application of it. This paper first presents a brief introductory guide to carrying out a simple agent-based model. Then, the method is illustrated by discussing a previously developed agent-based model, which explored inequalities in diet in the context of urban residential segregation. PMID:26648364

Environmental Sustainability and Effects on Urban Micro Region using Agent-Based Modeling of Urbanisation in Select Major Indian Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aithal, B. H.

2015-12-01

Abstract: Urbanisation has gained momentum with globalization in India. Policy decisions to set up commercial, industrial hubs have fuelled large scale migration, added with population upsurge has contributed to the fast growing urban region that needs to be monitored in order to design sustainable urban cities. Unplanned urbanization have resulted in the growth of peri-urban region referred to as urban sprawl, are often devoid of basic amenities and infrastructure leading to large scale environmental problems that are evident. Remote sensing data acquired through space borne sensors at regular interval helps in understanding urban dynamics aided by Geoinformatics which has proved very effective in mapping and monitoring for sustainable urban planning. Cellular automata (CA) is a robust approach for the spatially explicit simulation of land-use land cover dynamics. CA uses rules, states, conditions that are vital factors in modelling urbanisation. This communication effectively introduces simulation assistances of CA with the agent based modelling supported by its fuzzy characteristics and weightages through analytical hierarchal process (AHP). This has been done considering perceived agents such as industries, natural resource etc. Respective agent's role in development of a particular regions into an urban area has been examined with weights and its influence of each of these agents based on its characteristics functions. Validation was performed obtaining a high kappa coefficient indicating the quality and the allocation performance of the model & validity of the model to predict future projections. The prediction using the proposed model was performed for 2030. Further environmental sustainability of each of these cities are explored such as water features, environment, greenhouse gas emissions, effects on human human health etc., Modeling suggests trend of various land use classes transformation with the spurt in urban expansions based on specific regions and policies providing a visual spatial information to both urban planners and city managers. Further environmental sustainability assessment indicates dwindling natural resources and increase in thermal discomfort to the living population thereby indicating need for balanced and planned development.

Theory and Practice of Positive Feminist Therapy: A Culturally Responsive Approach to Divorce Therapy with Chinese Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tzou, Jean Yuh-Jin; Kim, Eunha; Waldheim, Kim

2012-01-01

Positive Feminist Therapy (PFT) is a strength-based culturally responsive therapy model specifically designed for helping Chinese women facing marital conflicts and divorce, integrating Empowerment Feminist Therapy, systems theory, and positive psychology. To help clients become change agents, PFT uses clients' existing strengths to develop…

Memory Transmission in Small Groups and Large Networks: An Agent-Based Model.

PubMed

Luhmann, Christian C; Rajaram, Suparna

2015-12-01

The spread of social influence in large social networks has long been an interest of social scientists. In the domain of memory, collaborative memory experiments have illuminated cognitive mechanisms that allow information to be transmitted between interacting individuals, but these experiments have focused on small-scale social contexts. In the current study, we took a computational approach, circumventing the practical constraints of laboratory paradigms and providing novel results at scales unreachable by laboratory methodologies. Our model embodied theoretical knowledge derived from small-group experiments and replicated foundational results regarding collaborative inhibition and memory convergence in small groups. Ultimately, we investigated large-scale, realistic social networks and found that agents are influenced by the agents with which they interact, but we also found that agents are influenced by nonneighbors (i.e., the neighbors of their neighbors). The similarity between these results and the reports of behavioral transmission in large networks offers a major theoretical insight by linking behavioral transmission to the spread of information. © The Author(s) 2015.

Encapsulated microbubbles and echogenic liposomes for contrast ultrasound imaging and targeted drug delivery

PubMed Central

Paul, Shirshendu; Nahire, Rahul; Mallik, Sanku; Sarkar, Kausik

2014-01-01

Micron- to nanometer-sized ultrasound agents, like encapsulated microbubbles and echogenic liposomes, are being developed for diagnostic imaging and ultrasound mediated drug/gene delivery. This review provides an overview of the current state of the art of the mathematical models of the acoustic behavior of ultrasound contrast microbubbles. We also present a review of the in vitro experimental characterization of the acoustic properties of microbubble based contrast agents undertaken in our laboratory. The hierarchical two-pronged approach of modeling contrast agents we developed is demonstrated for a lipid coated (Sonazoid™) and a polymer shelled (poly D-L-lactic acid) contrast microbubbles. The acoustic and drug release properties of the newly developed echogenic liposomes are discussed for their use as simultaneous imaging and drug/gene delivery agents. Although echogenicity is conclusively demonstrated in experiments, its physical mechanisms remain uncertain. Addressing questions raised here will accelerate further development and eventual clinical approval of these novel technologies. PMID:26097272

A technology path to tactical agent-based modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, Alex; Hanratty, Timothy P.

2017-05-01

Wargaming is a process of thinking through and visualizing events that could occur during a possible course of action. Over the past 200 years, wargaming has matured into a set of formalized processes. One area of growing interest is the application of agent-based modeling. Agent-based modeling and its additional supporting technologies has potential to introduce a third-generation wargaming capability to the Army, creating a positive overmatch decision-making capability. In its simplest form, agent-based modeling is a computational technique that helps the modeler understand and simulate how the "whole of a system" responds to change over time. It provides a decentralized method of looking at situations where individual agents are instantiated within an environment, interact with each other, and empowered to make their own decisions. However, this technology is not without its own risks and limitations. This paper explores a technology roadmap, identifying research topics that could realize agent-based modeling within a tactical wargaming context.

A Distributed Platform for Global-Scale Agent-Based Models of Disease Transmission

PubMed Central

Parker, Jon; Epstein, Joshua M.

2013-01-01

The Global-Scale Agent Model (GSAM) is presented. The GSAM is a high-performance distributed platform for agent-based epidemic modeling capable of simulating a disease outbreak in a population of several billion agents. It is unprecedented in its scale, its speed, and its use of Java. Solutions to multiple challenges inherent in distributing massive agent-based models are presented. Communication, synchronization, and memory usage are among the topics covered in detail. The memory usage discussion is Java specific. However, the communication and synchronization discussions apply broadly. We provide benchmarks illustrating the GSAM’s speed and scalability. PMID:24465120

Case studies, cross-site comparisons, and the challenge of generalization: comparing agent-based models of land-use change in frontier regions

PubMed Central

Parker, Dawn C.; Entwisle, Barbara; Rindfuss, Ronald R.; Vanwey, Leah K.; Manson, Steven M.; Moran, Emilio; An, Li; Deadman, Peter; Evans, Tom P.; Linderman, Marc; Rizi, S. Mohammad Mussavi; Malanson, George

2009-01-01

Cross-site comparisons of case studies have been identified as an important priority by the land-use science community. From an empirical perspective, such comparisons potentially allow generalizations that may contribute to production of global-scale land-use and land-cover change projections. From a theoretical perspective, such comparisons can inform development of a theory of land-use science by identifying potential hypotheses and supporting or refuting evidence. This paper undertakes a structured comparison of four case studies of land-use change in frontier regions that follow an agent-based modeling approach. Our hypothesis is that each case study represents a particular manifestation of a common process. Given differences in initial conditions among sites and the time at which the process is observed, actual mechanisms and outcomes are anticipated to differ substantially between sites. Our goal is to reveal both commonalities and differences among research sites, model implementations, and ultimately, conclusions derived from the modeling process. PMID:19960107

Case studies, cross-site comparisons, and the challenge of generalization: comparing agent-based models of land-use change in frontier regions.

PubMed

Parker, Dawn C; Entwisle, Barbara; Rindfuss, Ronald R; Vanwey, Leah K; Manson, Steven M; Moran, Emilio; An, Li; Deadman, Peter; Evans, Tom P; Linderman, Marc; Rizi, S Mohammad Mussavi; Malanson, George

2008-01-01

Cross-site comparisons of case studies have been identified as an important priority by the land-use science community. From an empirical perspective, such comparisons potentially allow generalizations that may contribute to production of global-scale land-use and land-cover change projections. From a theoretical perspective, such comparisons can inform development of a theory of land-use science by identifying potential hypotheses and supporting or refuting evidence. This paper undertakes a structured comparison of four case studies of land-use change in frontier regions that follow an agent-based modeling approach. Our hypothesis is that each case study represents a particular manifestation of a common process. Given differences in initial conditions among sites and the time at which the process is observed, actual mechanisms and outcomes are anticipated to differ substantially between sites. Our goal is to reveal both commonalities and differences among research sites, model implementations, and ultimately, conclusions derived from the modeling process.

Connectionist agent-based learning in bank-run decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Weihong; Huang, Qiao

2018-05-01

It is of utter importance for the policy makers, bankers, and investors to thoroughly understand the probability of bank-run (PBR) which was often neglected in the classical models. Bank-run is not merely due to miscoordination (Diamond and Dybvig, 1983) or deterioration of bank assets (Allen and Gale, 1998) but various factors. This paper presents the simulation results of the nonlinear dynamic probabilities of bank runs based on the global games approach, with the distinct assumption that heterogenous agents hold highly correlated but unidentical beliefs about the true payoffs. The specific technique used in the simulation is to let agents have an integrated cognitive-affective network. It is observed that, even when the economy is good, agents are significantly affected by the cognitive-affective network to react to bad news which might lead to bank-run. Both the rise of the late payoffs, R, and the early payoffs, r, will decrease the effect of the affective process. The increased risk sharing might or might not increase PBR, and the increase in late payoff is beneficial for preventing the bank run. This paper is one of the pioneers that links agent-based computational economics and behavioral economics.

An Observation-Driven Agent-Based Modeling and Analysis Framework for C. elegans Embryogenesis.

PubMed

Wang, Zi; Ramsey, Benjamin J; Wang, Dali; Wong, Kwai; Li, Husheng; Wang, Eric; Bao, Zhirong

2016-01-01

With cutting-edge live microscopy and image analysis, biologists can now systematically track individual cells in complex tissues and quantify cellular behavior over extended time windows. Computational approaches that utilize the systematic and quantitative data are needed to understand how cells interact in vivo to give rise to the different cell types and 3D morphology of tissues. An agent-based, minimum descriptive modeling and analysis framework is presented in this paper to study C. elegans embryogenesis. The framework is designed to incorporate the large amounts of experimental observations on cellular behavior and reserve data structures/interfaces that allow regulatory mechanisms to be added as more insights are gained. Observed cellular behaviors are organized into lineage identity, timing and direction of cell division, and path of cell movement. The framework also includes global parameters such as the eggshell and a clock. Division and movement behaviors are driven by statistical models of the observations. Data structures/interfaces are reserved for gene list, cell-cell interaction, cell fate and landscape, and other global parameters until the descriptive model is replaced by a regulatory mechanism. This approach provides a framework to handle the ongoing experiments of single-cell analysis of complex tissues where mechanistic insights lag data collection and need to be validated on complex observations.

An extensible simulation environment and movement metrics for testing walking behavior in agent-based models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paul M. Torrens; Atsushi Nara; Xun Li

2012-01-01

Human movement is a significant ingredient of many social, environmental, and technical systems, yet the importance of movement is often discounted in considering systems complexity. Movement is commonly abstracted in agent-based modeling (which is perhaps the methodological vehicle for modeling complex systems), despite the influence of movement upon information exchange and adaptation in a system. In particular, agent-based models of urban pedestrians often treat movement in proxy form at the expense of faithfully treating movement behavior with realistic agency. There exists little consensus about which method is appropriate for representing movement in agent-based schemes. In this paper, we examine popularly-usedmore » methods to drive movement in agent-based models, first by introducing a methodology that can flexibly handle many representations of movement at many different scales and second, introducing a suite of tools to benchmark agent movement between models and against real-world trajectory data. We find that most popular movement schemes do a relatively poor job of representing movement, but that some schemes may well be 'good enough' for some applications. We also discuss potential avenues for improving the representation of movement in agent-based frameworks.« less

Requirements Modeling with Agent Programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dasgupta, Aniruddha; Krishna, Aneesh; Ghose, Aditya K.

Agent-oriented conceptual modeling notations are highly effective in representing requirements from an intentional stance and answering questions such as what goals exist, how key actors depend on each other, and what alternatives must be considered. In this chapter, we review an approach to executing i* models by translating these into set of interacting agents implemented in the CASO language and suggest how we can perform reasoning with requirements modeled (both functional and non-functional) using i* models. In this chapter we particularly incorporate deliberation into the agent design. This allows us to benefit from the complementary representational capabilities of the two frameworks.

Quantification of cell surface receptor expression in live tissue culture media using a dual-tracer stain and rinse approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xiaochun; Sinha, Lagnojita; Singh, Aparna; Yang, Cynthia; Xiang, Jialing; Tichauer, Kenneth M.

2015-03-01

Immunofluorescence staining is a robust way to visualize the distribution of targeted biomolecules invasively in in fixed tissues and tissue culture. Despite the fact that these methods has been a well-established method in fixed tissue imaging for over 70 years, quantification of receptor concentration still simply assumes that the signal from the targeted fluorescent marker after incubation and sufficient rinsing is directly proportional to the concentration of targeted biomolecules, thus neglecting the experimental inconsistencies in incubation and rinsing procedures and assuming no, nonspecific binding of the fluorescent markers. This work presents the first imaging approach capable of quantifying the concentration of cell surface receptor on cancer cells grown in vitro based on compartment modeling in a nondestructive way. The approach utilizes a dual-tracer protocol where any non-specific retention or variability in incubation and rinsing of a receptor-targeted imaging agent is corrected by simultaneously imaging the retention of a chemically similar, "untargeted" imaging agent. Various different compartment models were used to analyze the data in order to find the optimal procedure for extracting estimates of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) concentration (a receptor overexpressed in many cancers and a key target for emerging molecular therapies) in tissue cultures with varying concentrations of human glioma cells (U251). Preliminary results demonstrated a need to model nonspecific binding of both the targeted and untargeted imaging agents used. The approach could be used to carry out the first repeated measures of cell surface receptor dynamics during 3D tumor mass development, in addition to the receptor response to therapies.

Local operators in kinetic wealth distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrecut, M.

2016-05-01

The statistical mechanics approach to wealth distribution is based on the conservative kinetic multi-agent model for money exchange, where the local interaction rule between the agents is analogous to the elastic particle scattering process. Here, we discuss the role of a class of conservative local operators, and we show that, depending on the values of their parameters, they can be used to generate all the relevant distributions. We also show numerically that in order to generate the power-law tail, an heterogeneous risk aversion model is required. By changing the parameters of these operators, one can also fine tune the resulting distributions in order to provide support for the emergence of a more egalitarian wealth distribution.

Towards an agent based traffic regulation and recommendation system for the on-road air quality control.

PubMed

Sadiq, Abderrahmane; El Fazziki, Abdelaziz; Ouarzazi, Jamal; Sadgal, Mohamed

2016-01-01

This paper presents an integrated and adaptive problem-solving approach to control the on-road air quality by modeling the road infrastructure, managing traffic based on pollution level and generating recommendations for road users. The aim is to reduce vehicle emissions in the most polluted road segments and optimizing the pollution levels. For this we propose the use of historical and real time pollution records and contextual data to calculate the air quality index on road networks and generate recommendations for reassigning traffic flow in order to improve the on-road air quality. The resulting air quality indexes are used in the system's traffic network generation, which the cartography is represented by a weighted graph. The weights evolve according to the pollution indexes and path properties and the graph is therefore dynamic. Furthermore, the systems use the available pollution data and meteorological records in order to predict the on-road pollutant levels by using an artificial neural network based prediction model. The proposed approach combines the benefits of multi-agent systems, Big data technology, machine learning tools and the available data sources. For the shortest path searching in the road network, we use the Dijkstra algorithm over Hadoop MapReduce framework. The use Hadoop framework in the data retrieve and analysis process has significantly improved the performance of the proposed system. Also, the agent technology allowed proposing a suitable solution in terms of robustness and agility.

Agent-Based Modeling in Molecular Systems Biology.

PubMed

Soheilypour, Mohammad; Mofrad, Mohammad R K

2018-07-01

Molecular systems orchestrating the biology of the cell typically involve a complex web of interactions among various components and span a vast range of spatial and temporal scales. Computational methods have advanced our understanding of the behavior of molecular systems by enabling us to test assumptions and hypotheses, explore the effect of different parameters on the outcome, and eventually guide experiments. While several different mathematical and computational methods are developed to study molecular systems at different spatiotemporal scales, there is still a need for methods that bridge the gap between spatially-detailed and computationally-efficient approaches. In this review, we summarize the capabilities of agent-based modeling (ABM) as an emerging molecular systems biology technique that provides researchers with a new tool in exploring the dynamics of molecular systems/pathways in health and disease. © 2018 WILEY Periodicals, Inc.

Generating Pedestrian Trajectories Consistent with the Fundamental Diagram Based on Physiological and Psychological Factors

PubMed Central

Narang, Sahil; Best, Andrew; Curtis, Sean; Manocha, Dinesh

2015-01-01

Pedestrian crowds often have been modeled as many-particle system including microscopic multi-agent simulators. One of the key challenges is to unearth governing principles that can model pedestrian movement, and use them to reproduce paths and behaviors that are frequently observed in human crowds. To that effect, we present a novel crowd simulation algorithm that generates pedestrian trajectories that exhibit the speed-density relationships expressed by the Fundamental Diagram. Our approach is based on biomechanical principles and psychological factors. The overall formulation results in better utilization of free space by the pedestrians and can be easily combined with well-known multi-agent simulation techniques with little computational overhead. We are able to generate human-like dense crowd behaviors in large indoor and outdoor environments and validate the results with captured real-world crowd trajectories. PMID:25875932

Applications of Agent Based Approaches in Business (A Three Essay Dissertation)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prawesh, Shankar

2013-01-01

The goal of this dissertation is to investigate the enabling role that agent based simulation plays in business and policy. The aforementioned issue has been addressed in this dissertation through three distinct, but related essays. The first essay is a literature review of different research applications of agent based simulation in various…

The computation of lipophilicities of ⁶⁴Cu PET systems based on a novel approach for fluctuating charges.

PubMed

Comba, Peter; Martin, Bodo; Sanyal, Avik; Stephan, Holger

2013-08-21

A QSPR scheme for the computation of lipophilicities of ⁶⁴Cu complexes was developed with a training set of 24 tetraazamacrocylic and bispidine-based Cu(II) compounds and their experimentally available 1-octanol-water distribution coefficients. A minimum number of physically meaningful parameters were used in the scheme, and these are primarily based on data available from molecular mechanics calculations, using an established force field for Cu(II) complexes and a recently developed scheme for the calculation of fluctuating atomic charges. The developed model was also applied to an independent validation set and was found to accurately predict distribution coefficients of potential ⁶⁴Cu PET (positron emission tomography) systems. A possible next step would be the development of a QSAR-based biodistribution model to track the uptake of imaging agents in different organs and tissues of the body. It is expected that such simple, empirical models of lipophilicity and biodistribution will be very useful in the design and virtual screening of positron emission tomography (PET) imaging agents.

Constructing Knowledge with an Agent-Based Instructional Program: A Comparison of Cooperative and Individual Meaning Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moreno, Roxana

2009-01-01

Participants in the present study were 87 college students who learned about botany using an agent-based instructional program with three different learning approaches: individual, jigsaw, or cooperative learning. Results showed no differences among learning approaches on retention. Students in jigsaw groups reported higher cognitive load during…

Towards social autonomous vehicles: Efficient collision avoidance scheme using Richardson's arms race model.

PubMed

Riaz, Faisal; Niazi, Muaz A

2017-01-01

This paper presents the concept of a social autonomous agent to conceptualize such Autonomous Vehicles (AVs), which interacts with other AVs using social manners similar to human behavior. The presented AVs also have the capability of predicting intentions, i.e. mentalizing and copying the actions of each other, i.e. mirroring. Exploratory Agent Based Modeling (EABM) level of the Cognitive Agent Based Computing (CABC) framework has been utilized to design the proposed social agent. Furthermore, to emulate the functionality of mentalizing and mirroring modules of proposed social agent, a tailored mathematical model of the Richardson's arms race model has also been presented. The performance of the proposed social agent has been validated at two levels-firstly it has been simulated using NetLogo, a standard agent-based modeling tool and also, at a practical level using a prototype AV. The simulation results have confirmed that the proposed social agent-based collision avoidance strategy is 78.52% more efficient than Random walk based collision avoidance strategy in congested flock-like topologies. Whereas practical results have confirmed that the proposed scheme can avoid rear end and lateral collisions with the efficiency of 99.876% as compared with the IEEE 802.11n-based existing state of the art mirroring neuron-based collision avoidance scheme.

Towards social autonomous vehicles: Efficient collision avoidance scheme using Richardson’s arms race model

PubMed Central

Niazi, Muaz A.

2017-01-01

This paper presents the concept of a social autonomous agent to conceptualize such Autonomous Vehicles (AVs), which interacts with other AVs using social manners similar to human behavior. The presented AVs also have the capability of predicting intentions, i.e. mentalizing and copying the actions of each other, i.e. mirroring. Exploratory Agent Based Modeling (EABM) level of the Cognitive Agent Based Computing (CABC) framework has been utilized to design the proposed social agent. Furthermore, to emulate the functionality of mentalizing and mirroring modules of proposed social agent, a tailored mathematical model of the Richardson’s arms race model has also been presented. The performance of the proposed social agent has been validated at two levels–firstly it has been simulated using NetLogo, a standard agent-based modeling tool and also, at a practical level using a prototype AV. The simulation results have confirmed that the proposed social agent-based collision avoidance strategy is 78.52% more efficient than Random walk based collision avoidance strategy in congested flock-like topologies. Whereas practical results have confirmed that the proposed scheme can avoid rear end and lateral collisions with the efficiency of 99.876% as compared with the IEEE 802.11n-based existing state of the art mirroring neuron-based collision avoidance scheme. PMID:29040294

Computational Modeling and Simulation of Developmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

SYNOPSIS: The question of how tissues and organs are shaped during development is crucial for understanding human birth defects. Data from high-throughput screening assays on human stem cells may be utilized predict developmental toxicity with reasonable accuracy. Other types of models are necessary, however, for mechanism-specific analysis because embryogenesis requires precise timing and control. Agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) is an approach to virtually reconstruct these dynamics, cell-by-cell and interaction-by-interaction. Using ABMS, HTS lesions from ToxCast can be integrated with patterning systems heuristically to propagate key events This presentation to FDA-CFSAN will update progress on the applications of in silico modeling tools and approaches for assessing developmental toxicity.

Modeling formalisms in Systems Biology

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Systems Biology has taken advantage of computational tools and high-throughput experimental data to model several biological processes. These include signaling, gene regulatory, and metabolic networks. However, most of these models are specific to each kind of network. Their interconnection demands a whole-cell modeling framework for a complete understanding of cellular systems. We describe the features required by an integrated framework for modeling, analyzing and simulating biological processes, and review several modeling formalisms that have been used in Systems Biology including Boolean networks, Bayesian networks, Petri nets, process algebras, constraint-based models, differential equations, rule-based models, interacting state machines, cellular automata, and agent-based models. We compare the features provided by different formalisms, and discuss recent approaches in the integration of these formalisms, as well as possible directions for the future. PMID:22141422

Group-Wise Herding Behavior in Financial Markets: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Kim, Minsung; Kim, Minki

2014-01-01

In this paper, we shed light on the dynamic characteristics of rational group behaviors and the relationship between monetary policy and economic units in the financial market by using an agent-based model (ABM), the Hurst exponent, and the Shannon entropy. First, an agent-based model is used to analyze the characteristics of the group behaviors at different levels of irrationality. Second, the Hurst exponent is applied to analyze the characteristics of the trend-following irrationality group. Third, the Shannon entropy is used to analyze the randomness and unpredictability of group behavior. We show that in a system that focuses on macro-monetary policy, steep fluctuations occur, meaning that the medium-level irrationality group has the highest Hurst exponent and Shannon entropy among all of the groups. However, in a system that focuses on micro-monetary policy, all group behaviors follow a stable trend, and the medium irrationality group thus remains stable, too. Likewise, in a system that focuses on both micro- and macro-monetary policies, all groups tend to be stable. Consequently, we find that group behavior varies across economic units at each irrationality level for micro- and macro-monetary policy in the financial market. Together, these findings offer key insights into monetary policy. PMID:24714635

Group-wise herding behavior in financial markets: an agent-based modeling approach.

PubMed

Kim, Minsung; Kim, Minki

2014-01-01

In this paper, we shed light on the dynamic characteristics of rational group behaviors and the relationship between monetary policy and economic units in the financial market by using an agent-based model (ABM), the Hurst exponent, and the Shannon entropy. First, an agent-based model is used to analyze the characteristics of the group behaviors at different levels of irrationality. Second, the Hurst exponent is applied to analyze the characteristics of the trend-following irrationality group. Third, the Shannon entropy is used to analyze the randomness and unpredictability of group behavior. We show that in a system that focuses on macro-monetary policy, steep fluctuations occur, meaning that the medium-level irrationality group has the highest Hurst exponent and Shannon entropy among all of the groups. However, in a system that focuses on micro-monetary policy, all group behaviors follow a stable trend, and the medium irrationality group thus remains stable, too. Likewise, in a system that focuses on both micro- and macro-monetary policies, all groups tend to be stable. Consequently, we find that group behavior varies across economic units at each irrationality level for micro- and macro-monetary policy in the financial market. Together, these findings offer key insights into monetary policy.

Combinatorially-generated library of 6-fluoroquinolone analogs as potential novel antitubercular agents: a chemometric and molecular modeling assessment.

PubMed

Minovski, Nikola; Perdih, Andrej; Solmajer, Tom

2012-05-01

The virtual combinatorial chemistry approach as a methodology for generating chemical libraries of structurally-similar analogs in a virtual environment was employed for building a general mixed virtual combinatorial library with a total of 53.871 6-FQ structural analogs, introducing the real synthetic pathways of three well known 6-FQ inhibitors. The druggability properties of the generated combinatorial 6-FQs were assessed using an in-house developed drug-likeness filter integrating the Lipinski/Veber rule-sets. The compounds recognized as drug-like were used as an external set for prediction of the biological activity values using a neural-networks (NN) model based on an experimentally-determined set of active 6-FQs. Furthermore, a subset of compounds was extracted from the pool of drug-like 6-FQs, with predicted biological activity, and subsequently used in virtual screening (VS) campaign combining pharmacophore modeling and molecular docking studies. This complex scheme, a powerful combination of chemometric and molecular modeling approaches provided novel QSAR guidelines that could aid in the further lead development of 6-FQs agents.

The "proactive" model of learning: Integrative framework for model-free and model-based reinforcement learning utilizing the associative learning-based proactive brain concept.

PubMed

Zsuga, Judit; Biro, Klara; Papp, Csaba; Tajti, Gabor; Gesztelyi, Rudolf

2016-02-01

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful concept underlying forms of associative learning governed by the use of a scalar reward signal, with learning taking place if expectations are violated. RL may be assessed using model-based and model-free approaches. Model-based reinforcement learning involves the amygdala, the hippocampus, and the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC). The model-free system involves the pedunculopontine-tegmental nucleus (PPTgN), the ventral tegmental area (VTA) and the ventral striatum (VS). Based on the functional connectivity of VS, model-free and model based RL systems center on the VS that by integrating model-free signals (received as reward prediction error) and model-based reward related input computes value. Using the concept of reinforcement learning agent we propose that the VS serves as the value function component of the RL agent. Regarding the model utilized for model-based computations we turned to the proactive brain concept, which offers an ubiquitous function for the default network based on its great functional overlap with contextual associative areas. Hence, by means of the default network the brain continuously organizes its environment into context frames enabling the formulation of analogy-based association that are turned into predictions of what to expect. The OFC integrates reward-related information into context frames upon computing reward expectation by compiling stimulus-reward and context-reward information offered by the amygdala and hippocampus, respectively. Furthermore we suggest that the integration of model-based expectations regarding reward into the value signal is further supported by the efferent of the OFC that reach structures canonical for model-free learning (e.g., the PPTgN, VTA, and VS). (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

On System Engineering a Barter-Based Re-allocation of Space System Key Development Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosmann, William J.

NASA has had a decades-long problem with cost growth during the development of space science missions. Numerous agency-sponsored studies have produced average mission level development cost growths ranging from 23 to 77%. A new study of 26 historical NASA science instrument set developments using expert judgment to re-allocate key development resources has an average cost growth of 73.77%. Twice in history, during the Cassini and EOS-Terra science instrument developments, a barter-based mechanism has been used to re-allocate key development resources. The mean instrument set development cost growth was -1.55%. Performing a bivariate inference on the means of these two distributions, there is statistical evidence to support the claim that using a barter-based mechanism to re-allocate key instrument development resources will result in a lower expected cost growth than using the expert judgment approach. Agent-based discrete event simulation is the natural way to model a trade environment. A NetLogo agent-based barter-based simulation of science instrument development was created. The agent-based model was validated against the Cassini historical example, as the starting and ending instrument development conditions are available. The resulting validated agent-based barter-based science instrument resource re-allocation simulation was used to perform 300 instrument development simulations, using barter to re-allocate development resources. The mean cost growth was -3.365%. A bivariate inference on the means was performed to determine that additional significant statistical evidence exists to support a claim that using barter-based resource re-allocation will result in lower expected cost growth, with respect to the historical expert judgment approach. Barter-based key development resource re-allocation should work on science spacecraft development as well as it has worked on science instrument development. A new study of 28 historical NASA science spacecraft developments has an average cost growth of 46.04%. As barter-based key development resource re-allocation has never been tried in a spacecraft development, no historical results exist, and an inference on the means test is not possible. A simulation of using barter-based resource re-allocation should be developed. The NetLogo instrument development simulation should be modified to account for spacecraft development market participant differences. The resulting agent-based barter-based spacecraft resource re-allocation simulation would then be used to determine if significant statistical evidence exists to prove a claim that using barter-based resource re-allocation will result in lower expected cost growth.

Quantitative in vivo cell-surface receptor imaging in oncology: kinetic modeling & paired-agent principles from nuclear medicine and optical imaging

PubMed Central

Tichauer, Kenneth M.; Wang, Yu; Pogue, Brian W.; Liu, Jonathan T. C.

2015-01-01

The development of methods to accurately quantify cell-surface receptors in living tissues would have a seminal impact in oncology. For example, accurate measures of receptor density in vivo could enhance early detection or surgical resection of tumors via protein-based contrast, allowing removal of cancer with high phenotype specificity. Alternatively, accurate receptor expression estimation could be used as a biomarker to guide patient-specific clinical oncology targeting of the same molecular pathway. Unfortunately, conventional molecular contrast-based imaging approaches are not well adapted to accurately estimating the nanomolar-level cell-surface receptor concentrations in tumors, as most images are dominated by nonspecific sources of contrast such as high vascular permeability and lymphatic inhibition. This article reviews approaches for overcoming these limitations based upon tracer kinetic modeling and the use of emerging protocols to estimate binding potential and the related receptor concentration. Methods such as using single time point imaging or a reference-tissue approach tend to have low accuracy in tumors, whereas paired-agent methods or advanced kinetic analyses are more promising to eliminate the dominance of interstitial space in the signals. Nuclear medicine and optical molecular imaging are the primary modalities used, as they have the nanomolar level sensitivity needed to quantify cell-surface receptor concentrations present in tissue, although each likely has a different clinical niche. PMID:26134619

Static force field representation of environments based on agents' nonlinear motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campo, Damian; Betancourt, Alejandro; Marcenaro, Lucio; Regazzoni, Carlo

2017-12-01

This paper presents a methodology that aims at the incremental representation of areas inside environments in terms of attractive forces. It is proposed a parametric representation of velocity fields ruling the dynamics of moving agents. It is assumed that attractive spots in the environment are responsible for modifying the motion of agents. A switching model is used to describe near and far velocity fields, which in turn are used to learn attractive characteristics of environments. The effect of such areas is considered radial over all the scene. Based on the estimation of attractive areas, a map that describes their effects in terms of their localizations, ranges of action, and intensities is derived in an online way. Information of static attractive areas is added dynamically into a set of filters that describes possible interactions between moving agents and an environment. The proposed approach is first evaluated on synthetic data; posteriorly, the method is applied on real trajectories coming from moving pedestrians in an indoor environment.

Global Sensitivity Analysis for Large-scale Socio-hydrological Models using the Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Y.; Garcia-Cabrejo, O.; Cai, X.; Valocchi, A. J.; Dupont, B.

2014-12-01

In the context of coupled human and natural system (CHNS), incorporating human factors into water resource management provides us with the opportunity to understand the interactions between human and environmental systems. A multi-agent system (MAS) model is designed to couple with the physically-based Republican River Compact Administration (RRCA) groundwater model, in an attempt to understand the declining water table and base flow in the heavily irrigated Republican River basin. For MAS modelling, we defined five behavioral parameters (κ_pr, ν_pr, κ_prep, ν_prep and λ) to characterize the agent's pumping behavior given the uncertainties of the future crop prices and precipitation. κ and ν describe agent's beliefs in their prior knowledge of the mean and variance of crop prices (κ_pr, ν_pr) and precipitation (κ_prep, ν_prep), and λ is used to describe the agent's attitude towards the fluctuation of crop profits. Notice that these human behavioral parameters as inputs to the MAS model are highly uncertain and even not measurable. Thus, we estimate the influences of these behavioral parameters on the coupled models using Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA). In this paper, we address two main challenges arising from GSA with such a large-scale socio-hydrological model by using Hadoop-based Cloud Computing techniques and Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) based variance decomposition approach. As a result, 1,000 scenarios of the coupled models are completed within two hours with the Hadoop framework, rather than about 28days if we run those scenarios sequentially. Based on the model results, GSA using PCE is able to measure the impacts of the spatial and temporal variations of these behavioral parameters on crop profits and water table, and thus identifies two influential parameters, κ_pr and λ. The major contribution of this work is a methodological framework for the application of GSA in large-scale socio-hydrological models. This framework attempts to find a balance between the heavy computational burden regarding model execution and the number of model evaluations required in the GSA analysis, particularly through an organic combination of Hadoop-based Cloud Computing to efficiently evaluate the socio-hydrological model and PCE where the sensitivity indices are efficiently estimated from its coefficients.

Learning to cooperate in solving the traveling salesman problem.

PubMed

Qi, Dehu; Sun, Ron

2005-01-01

A cooperative team of agents may perform many tasks better than single agents. The question is how cooperation among self-interested agents should be achieved. It is important that, while we encourage cooperation among agents in a team, we maintain autonomy of individual agents as much as possible, so as to maintain flexibility and generality. This paper presents an approach based on bidding utilizing reinforcement values acquired through reinforcement learning. We tested and analyzed this approach and demonstrated that a team indeed performed better than the best single agent as well as the average of single agents.

Enhanced Collaboration for Space Situational Awareness via Proxy Agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Picciano, P.; Schurr, N.

2012-09-01

The call for dynamic partnerships demanded in the US. Space Policy confronts two formidable challenges. The first is evident in the lack of the adoption of technical innovations that could substantially enhance collaboration. The second category, and perhaps a greater impediment, involves organizational and social constraints that minimize information sharing. Compounding the technical challenges, the organizational barriers to collaboration present a different problem set. There is a culture in the space domain that predisposes most stakeholders to guard their information. Most owner/operators are reluctant to share asset data, whether experiencing an anomaly or just providing status updates. This is unfortunate, because the owner/operators generally have the most accurate and timely data pertaining to their satellite. Comprehensive Space Situational Awareness (SSA) requires the marshaling of disparate mission critical elements. The mission threads reliant on SSA are complex and often require analysis from a diverse team of experts with sophisticated systems and tools that may be dispersed across multiple entities including military, commercial, and public interests. Two significant trends are likely to further perpetuate this state of affairs: 1) the space environment continues to be more congested, contested, and competitive, and 2) further pressures to increase SSA Sharing with a greater number of stakeholders throughout the world. The challenge of delivering the right information to the right people, while protecting national security and privacy interests, is in need of an innovative solution. Our approach, entitled Space Collaboration via an Agent Network (SCAN), enables proxy software agents to represent stakeholders (as individuals and organizations) to enhance collaboration among various agency producers and consumers of space information The SCAN agent network will facilitate collaboration by identifying opportunities to collaborate, as well as optimize the processes given the mission context. The agent-based approach is uniquely capable of addressing the collaboration challenges from both the technical and organizational perspectives. To achieve these objectives, we are employing a modeling approach based on a Markov decision process (MDP). MDPs are very general models for optimizing decisions under uncertainty. The model was chosen because it is able to represent the uncertainty in outcomes (such as loss of satellite communication or inability for a colleague to finish a task on time) as well as the associated values of decisions made and their resulting outcomes. The key aspect of MDPs is that it is a sequential model, not only does it represent uncertainty for single decisions and outcomes, but estimates the state of the world in the future and optimizes decisions based on these future expectations. The SCAN prototype will be used to assess modeling parameters and assumptions as well as collect user feedback.

Story-Based Pedagogical Agents: A Scaffolding Design Approach for the Process of Historical Inquiry in a Web-Based Self-Learning Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fujimoto, Toru

2010-01-01

The purpose of this research was to design and evaluate a web-based self-learning environment for historical inquiry embedded with different types of instructional support featuring story-based pedagogical agents. This research focused on designing a learning environment by integrating story-based instruction and pedagogical agents as a means to…

A Neurocomputational Model of Goal-Directed Navigation in Insect-Inspired Artificial Agents

PubMed Central

Goldschmidt, Dennis; Manoonpong, Poramate; Dasgupta, Sakyasingha

2017-01-01

Despite their small size, insect brains are able to produce robust and efficient navigation in complex environments. Specifically in social insects, such as ants and bees, these navigational capabilities are guided by orientation directing vectors generated by a process called path integration. During this process, they integrate compass and odometric cues to estimate their current location as a vector, called the home vector for guiding them back home on a straight path. They further acquire and retrieve path integration-based vector memories globally to the nest or based on visual landmarks. Although existing computational models reproduced similar behaviors, a neurocomputational model of vector navigation including the acquisition of vector representations has not been described before. Here we present a model of neural mechanisms in a modular closed-loop control—enabling vector navigation in artificial agents. The model consists of a path integration mechanism, reward-modulated global learning, random search, and action selection. The path integration mechanism integrates compass and odometric cues to compute a vectorial representation of the agent's current location as neural activity patterns in circular arrays. A reward-modulated learning rule enables the acquisition of vector memories by associating the local food reward with the path integration state. A motor output is computed based on the combination of vector memories and random exploration. In simulation, we show that the neural mechanisms enable robust homing and localization, even in the presence of external sensory noise. The proposed learning rules lead to goal-directed navigation and route formation performed under realistic conditions. Consequently, we provide a novel approach for vector learning and navigation in a simulated, situated agent linking behavioral observations to their possible underlying neural substrates. PMID:28446872

A Neurocomputational Model of Goal-Directed Navigation in Insect-Inspired Artificial Agents.

PubMed

Goldschmidt, Dennis; Manoonpong, Poramate; Dasgupta, Sakyasingha

2017-01-01

Despite their small size, insect brains are able to produce robust and efficient navigation in complex environments. Specifically in social insects, such as ants and bees, these navigational capabilities are guided by orientation directing vectors generated by a process called path integration. During this process, they integrate compass and odometric cues to estimate their current location as a vector, called the home vector for guiding them back home on a straight path. They further acquire and retrieve path integration-based vector memories globally to the nest or based on visual landmarks. Although existing computational models reproduced similar behaviors, a neurocomputational model of vector navigation including the acquisition of vector representations has not been described before. Here we present a model of neural mechanisms in a modular closed-loop control-enabling vector navigation in artificial agents. The model consists of a path integration mechanism, reward-modulated global learning, random search, and action selection. The path integration mechanism integrates compass and odometric cues to compute a vectorial representation of the agent's current location as neural activity patterns in circular arrays. A reward-modulated learning rule enables the acquisition of vector memories by associating the local food reward with the path integration state. A motor output is computed based on the combination of vector memories and random exploration. In simulation, we show that the neural mechanisms enable robust homing and localization, even in the presence of external sensory noise. The proposed learning rules lead to goal-directed navigation and route formation performed under realistic conditions. Consequently, we provide a novel approach for vector learning and navigation in a simulated, situated agent linking behavioral observations to their possible underlying neural substrates.

Experimental And Numerical Evaluation Of Gaseous Agents For Suppressing Cup-Burner Flames In Low Gravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Takahashi, Fumiaki; Linteris, Gregory T.; Katta, Viswanath R.

2003-01-01

Longer duration missions to the moon, to Mars, and on the International Space Station (ISS) increase the likelihood of accidental fires. NASA's fire safety program for human-crewed space flight is based largely on removing ignition sources and controlling the flammability of the material on-board. There is ongoing research to improve the flammability characterization of materials in low gravity; however, very little research has been conducted on fire suppression in the low-gravity environment. Although the existing suppression systems aboard the Space Shuttle (halon 1301, CF3Br) and the ISS (CO2 or water-based form) may continue to be used, alternative effective agents or techniques are desirable for long-duration missions. The goal of the present investigation is to: (1) understand the physical and chemical processes of fire suppression in various gravity and O2 levels simulating spacecraft, Mars, and moon missions; (2) provide rigorous testing of analytical models, which include detailed combustion-suppression chemistry and radiation sub-models, so that the model can be used to interpret (and predict) the suppression behavior in low gravity; and (3) provide basic research results useful for advances in space fire safety technology, including new fire-extinguishing agents and approaches.

Dynamic building risk assessment theoretic model for rainstorm-flood utilization ABM and ABS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Wenze; Li, Wenbo; Wang, Hailei; Huang, Yingliang; Wu, Xuelian; Sun, Bingyun

2015-12-01

Flood is one of natural disasters with the worst loss in the world. It needs to assess flood disaster risk so that we can reduce the loss of flood disaster. Disaster management practical work needs the dynamic risk results of building. Rainstorm flood disaster system is a typical complex system. From the view of complex system theory, flood disaster risk is the interaction result of hazard effect objects, rainstorm flood hazard factors, and hazard environments. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is an important tool for complex system modeling. Rainstorm-flood building risk dynamic assessment method (RFBRDAM) was proposed using ABM in this paper. The interior structures and procedures of different agents in proposed meth had been designed. On the Netlogo platform, the proposed method was implemented to assess the building risk changes of the rainstorm flood disaster in the Huaihe River Basin using Agent-based simulation (ABS). The results indicated that the proposed method can dynamically assess building risk of the whole process for the rainstorm flood disaster. The results of this paper can provide one new approach for flood disaster building risk dynamic assessment and flood disaster management.

Cells, Agents, and Support Vectors in Interaction - Modeling Urban Sprawl based on Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence Techniques in a Post-Industrial Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rienow, A.; Menz, G.

2015-12-01

Since the beginning of the millennium, artificial intelligence techniques as cellular automata (CA) and multi-agent systems (MAS) have been incorporated into land-system simulations to address the complex challenges of transitions in urban areas as open, dynamic systems. The study presents a hybrid modeling approach for modeling the two antagonistic processes of urban sprawl and urban decline at once. The simulation power of support vector machines (SVM), cellular automata (CA) and multi-agent systems (MAS) are integrated into one modeling framework and applied to the largest agglomeration of Central Europe: the Ruhr. A modified version of SLEUTH (short for Slope, Land-use, Exclusion, Urban, Transport, and Hillshade) functions as the CA component. SLEUTH makes use of historic urban land-use data sets and growth coefficients for the purpose of modeling physical urban expansion. The machine learning algorithm of SVM is applied in order to enhance SLEUTH. Thus, the stochastic variability of the CA is reduced and information about the human and ecological forces driving the local suitability of urban sprawl is incorporated. Subsequently, the supported CA is coupled with the MAS ReHoSh (Residential Mobility and the Housing Market of Shrinking City Systems). The MAS models population patterns, housing prices, and housing demand in shrinking regions based on interactions between household and city agents. Semi-explicit urban weights are introduced as a possibility of modeling from and to the pixel simultaneously. Three scenarios of changing housing preferences reveal the urban development of the region in terms of quantity and location. They reflect the dissemination of sustainable thinking among stakeholders versus the steady dream of owning a house in sub- and exurban areas. Additionally, the outcomes are transferred into a digital petri dish reflecting a synthetic environment with perfect conditions of growth. Hence, the generic growth elements affecting the future face of post-industrial cities are revealed. Finally, the advantages and limitations of linking pixels and people by combining AI and machine learning techniques in a multi-scale geosimulation approach are to be discussed.

Simultaneous virtual prediction of anti-Escherichia coli activities and ADMET profiles: A chemoinformatic complementary approach for high-throughput screening.

PubMed

Speck-Planche, Alejandro; Cordeiro, M N D S

2014-02-10

Escherichia coli remains one of the principal pathogens that cause nosocomial infections, medical conditions that are increasingly common in healthcare facilities. E. coli is intrinsically resistant to many antibiotics, and multidrug-resistant strains have emerged recently. Chemoinformatics has been a great ally of experimental methodologies such as high-throughput screening, playing an important role in the discovery of effective antibacterial agents. However, there is no approach that can design safer anti-E. coli agents, because of the multifactorial nature and complexity of bacterial diseases and the lack of desirable ADMET (absorption, distribution, metabolism, elimination, and toxicity) profiles as a major cause of disapproval of drugs. In this work, we introduce the first multitasking model based on quantitative-structure biological effect relationships (mtk-QSBER) for simultaneous virtual prediction of anti-E. coli activities and ADMET properties of drugs and/or chemicals under many experimental conditions. The mtk-QSBER model was developed from a large and heterogeneous data set of more than 37800 cases, exhibiting overall accuracies of >95% in both training and prediction (validation) sets. The utility of our mtk-QSBER model was demonstrated by performing virtual prediction of properties for the investigational drug avarofloxacin (AVX) under 260 different experimental conditions. Results converged with the experimental evidence, confirming the remarkable anti-E. coli activities and safety of AVX. Predictions also showed that our mtk-QSBER model can be a promising computational tool for virtual screening of desirable anti-E. coli agents, and this chemoinformatic approach could be extended to the search for safer drugs with defined pharmacological activities.

A Scalable and Robust Multi-Agent Approach to Distributed Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tumer, Kagan

2005-01-01

Modularizing a large optimization problem so that the solutions to the subproblems provide a good overall solution is a challenging problem. In this paper we present a multi-agent approach to this problem based on aligning the agent objectives with the system objectives, obviating the need to impose external mechanisms to achieve collaboration among the agents. This approach naturally addresses scaling and robustness issues by ensuring that the agents do not rely on the reliable operation of other agents We test this approach in the difficult distributed optimization problem of imperfect device subset selection [Challet and Johnson, 2002]. In this problem, there are n devices, each of which has a "distortion", and the task is to find the subset of those n devices that minimizes the average distortion. Our results show that in large systems (1000 agents) the proposed approach provides improvements of over an order of magnitude over both traditional optimization methods and traditional multi-agent methods. Furthermore, the results show that even in extreme cases of agent failures (i.e., half the agents fail midway through the simulation) the system remains coordinated and still outperforms a failure-free and centralized optimization algorithm.

Cooperating intelligent systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rochowiak, Daniel

1989-01-01

Some of the issues connected to the development of a bureaucratic system are discussed. Emphasis is on a layer multiagent approach to distributed artificial intelligence (DAI). The division of labor in a bureaucracy is considered. The bureaucratic model seems to be a fertile model for further examination since it allows for the growth and change of system components and system protocols and rules. The first part of implementing the system would be the construction of a frame based reasoner and the appropriate B-agents and E-agents. The agents themselves should act as objects and the E-objects in particular should have the capability of taking on a different role. No effort was made to address the problems of automated failure recovery, problem decomposition, or implementation. Instead what has been achieved is a framework that can be developed in several distinct ways, and which provides a core set of metaphors and issues for further research.

A framework for service enterprise workflow simulation with multi-agents cooperation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Wenan; Xu, Wei; Yang, Fujun; Xu, Lida; Jiang, Chuanqun

2013-11-01

Process dynamic modelling for service business is the key technique for Service-Oriented information systems and service business management, and the workflow model of business processes is the core part of service systems. Service business workflow simulation is the prevalent approach to be used for analysis of service business process dynamically. Generic method for service business workflow simulation is based on the discrete event queuing theory, which is lack of flexibility and scalability. In this paper, we propose a service workflow-oriented framework for the process simulation of service businesses using multi-agent cooperation to address the above issues. Social rationality of agent is introduced into the proposed framework. Adopting rationality as one social factor for decision-making strategies, a flexible scheduling for activity instances has been implemented. A system prototype has been developed to validate the proposed simulation framework through a business case study.

Purpose, Processes, Partnerships, and Products: 4Ps to advance Participatory Socio-Environmental Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gray, S. G.; Voinov, A. A.; Jordan, R.; Paolisso, M.

2016-12-01

Model-based reasoning is a basic part of human understanding, decision-making, and communication. Including stakeholders in environmental model building and analysis is an increasingly popular approach to understanding environmental change since stakeholders often hold valuable knowledge about socio-environmental dynamics and since collaborative forms of modeling produce important boundary objects used to collectively reason about environmental problems. Although the number of participatory modeling (PM) case studies and the number of researchers adopting these approaches has grown in recent years, the lack of standardized reporting and limited reproducibility have prevented PM's establishment and advancement as a cohesive field of study. We suggest a four dimensional framework that includes reporting on dimensions of: (1) the Purpose for selecting a PM approach (the why); (2) the Process by which the public was involved in model building or evaluation (the how); (3) the Partnerships formed (the who); and (4) the Products that resulted from these efforts (the what). We highlight four case studies that use common PM software-based approaches (fuzzy cognitive mapping, agent-based modeling, system dynamics, and participatory geospatial modeling) to understand human-environment interactions and the consequences of environmental changes, including bushmeat hunting in Tanzania and Cameroon, agricultural production and deforestation in Zambia, and groundwater management in India. We demonstrate how standardizing communication about PM case studies can lead to innovation and new insights about model-based reasoning in support of environmental policy development. We suggest that our 4P framework and reporting approach provides a way for new hypotheses to be identified and tested in the growing field of PM.

Nanostructured thermites based on iodine pentoxide for bio agent defeat systems.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobosyan, Mkhitar; Kazansky, Alexander; Martirosyan, Karen

2011-10-01

The risk for bioterrorist events involving the intentional airborne release of contagious agents has led to development of new approaches for bio agent defeat technologies both indoors and outdoors. Novel approaches to defeat harmful biological agents have generated a strong demand for new active materials. The preferred solutions are to neutralize the biological agents within the immediate target area by using aerosolized biocidal substances released in situ by high energetic reactions. By using nano-thermite reactions, with energy release up to 25 kJ/cc, based on I2O5/Al nanoparticles we intend to generate high quantity of vaporized iodine for spatial deposition onto harmful bacteria for their destruction. In this report, the effect of reaction product on growth and survival of Escherichia coli (E-coli) expressing GFP (Green Fluorescent Protein) was investigated. Moreover, we developed an approach to increase sensitivity of the detection. The study has shown that I2O5/Al nanosystem is extremely effective to disinfect harmful biological agents such (E-coli) bacteria in seconds.

Agent-based model for rural-urban migration: A dynamic consideration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Ning; Ma, Hai-Ying; Khan, M. Junaid

2015-10-01

This paper develops a dynamic agent-based model for rural-urban migration, based on the previous relevant works. The model conforms to the typical dynamic linear multi-agent systems model concerned extensively in systems science, in which the communication network is formulated as a digraph. Simulations reveal that consensus of certain variable could be harmful to the overall stability and should be avoided.

A Bottom-up Vulnerability Analysis of Water Systems with Decentralized Decision Making and Demographic Shifts- the Case of Jordan.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lachaut, T.; Yoon, J.; Klassert, C. J. A.; Talozi, S.; Mustafa, D.; Knox, S.; Selby, P. D.; Haddad, Y.; Gorelick, S.; Tilmant, A.

2016-12-01

Probabilistic approaches to uncertainty in water systems management can face challenges of several types: non stationary climate, sudden shocks such as conflict-driven migrations, or the internal complexity and dynamics of large systems. There has been a rising trend in the development of bottom-up methods that place focus on the decision side instead of probability distributions and climate scenarios. These approaches are based on defining acceptability thresholds for the decision makers and considering the entire range of possibilities over which such thresholds are crossed. We aim at improving the knowledge on the applicability and relevance of this approach by enlarging its scope beyond climate uncertainty and single decision makers; thus including demographic shifts, internal system dynamics, and multiple stakeholders at different scales. This vulnerability analysis is part of the Jordan Water Project and makes use of an ambitious multi-agent model developed by its teams with the extensive cooperation of the Ministry of Water and Irrigation of Jordan. The case of Jordan is a relevant example for migration spikes, rapid social changes, resource depletion and climate change impacts. The multi-agent modeling framework used provides a consistent structure to assess the vulnerability of complex water resources systems with distributed acceptability thresholds and stakeholder interaction. A proof of concept and preliminary results are presented for a non-probabilistic vulnerability analysis that involves different types of stakeholders, uncertainties other than climatic and the integration of threshold-based indicators. For each stakeholder (agent) a vulnerability matrix is constructed over a multi-dimensional domain, which includes various hydrologic and/or demographic variables.

Model of interaction in Smart Grid on the basis of multi-agent system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engel, E. A.; Kovalev, I. V.; Engel, N. E.

2016-11-01

This paper presents model of interaction in Smart Grid on the basis of multi-agent system. The use of travelling waves in the multi-agent system describes the behavior of the Smart Grid from the local point, which is being the complement of the conventional approach. The simulation results show that the absorption of the wave in the distributed multi-agent systems is effectively simulated the interaction in Smart Grid.

Quantitative Agent Based Model of Opinion Dynamics: Polish Elections of 2015

PubMed Central

Sobkowicz, Pawel

2016-01-01

We present results of an abstract, agent based model of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) approach, applied to a strongly polarized society, corresponding to the Polish political scene between 2005 and 2015. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of two subcommunities of comparable size (supporting the corresponding opinions)—which corresponds to the bipartisan split found in Poland. Spurred by the recent breakdown of this political duopoly, which occurred in 2015, we present a model extension that describes both the long term coexistence of the two opposing opinions and a rapid, transitory change due to the appearance of a third party alternative. We provide quantitative comparison of the model with the results of polls and elections in Poland, testing the assumptions related to the modeled processes and the parameters used in the simulations. It is shown, that when the propaganda messages of the two incumbent parties differ in emotional tone, the political status quo may be unstable. The asymmetry of the emotions within the support bases of the two parties allows one of them to be ‘invaded’ by a newcomer third party very quickly, while the second remains immune to such invasion. PMID:27171226

Development of Mechanistic Reasoning and Multilevel Explanations of Ecology in Third Grade Using Agent-Based Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dickes, Amanda Catherine; Sengupta, Pratim; Farris, Amy Voss; Satabdi, Basu

2016-01-01

In this paper, we present a third-grade ecology learning environment that integrates two forms of modeling--embodied modeling and agent-based modeling (ABMs)--through the generation of mathematical representations that are common to both forms of modeling. The term "agent" in the context of ABMs indicates individual computational objects…

Agent based reasoning for the non-linear stochastic models of long-range memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kononovicius, A.; Gontis, V.

2012-02-01

We extend Kirman's model by introducing variable event time scale. The proposed flexible time scale is equivalent to the variable trading activity observed in financial markets. Stochastic version of the extended Kirman's agent based model is compared to the non-linear stochastic models of long-range memory in financial markets. The agent based model providing matching macroscopic description serves as a microscopic reasoning of the earlier proposed stochastic model exhibiting power law statistics.

Is the whole the sum of its parts? Agent-based modelling of wastewater treatment systems.

PubMed

Schuler, A J; Majed, N; Bucci, V; Hellweger, F L; Tu, Y; Gu, A Z

2011-01-01

Agent-based models (ABMS) simulate individual units within a system, such as the bacteria in a biological wastewater treatment system. This paper outlines past, current and potential future applications of ABMs to wastewater treatment. ABMs track heterogeneities within microbial populations, and this has been demonstrated to yield different predictions of bulk behaviors than the conventional, "lumped" approaches for enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) completely mixed reactors systems. Current work included the application of the ABM approach to bacterial adaptation/evolution, using the model system of individual EBPR bacteria that are allowed to evolve a kinetic parameter (maximum glycogen storage) in a competitive environment. The ABM approach was successfully implemented to a simple anaerobic-aerobic system and it was found the differing initial states converged to the same optimal solution under uncertain hydraulic residence times associated with completely mixed hydraulics. In another study, an ABM was developed and applied to simulate the heterogeneity in intracellular polymer storage compounds, including polyphosphate (PP), in functional microbial populations in enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) process. The simulation results were compared to the experimental measurements of single-cell abundance of PP in polyphosphate accumulating organisms (PAOs), performed using Raman microscopy. The model-predicted heterogeneity was generally consistent with observations, and it was used to investigate the relative contribution of external (different life histories) and internal (biological) mechanisms leading to heterogeneity. In the future, ABMs could be combined with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models to understand incomplete mixing, more intracellular states and mechanisms can be incorporated, and additional experimental verification is needed.

Maintenance service contract model for heavy equipment in mining industry using principal agent theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pakpahan, Eka K. A.; Iskandar, Bermawi P.

2015-12-01

Mining industry is characterized by a high operational revenue, and hence high availability of heavy equipment used in mining industry is a critical factor to ensure the revenue target. To maintain high avaliability of the heavy equipment, the equipment's owner hires an agent to perform maintenance action. Contract is then used to control the relationship between the two parties involved. The traditional contracts such as fixed price, cost plus or penalty based contract studied is unable to push agent's performance to exceed target, and this in turn would lead to a sub-optimal result (revenue). This research deals with designing maintenance contract compensation schemes. The scheme should induce agent to select the highest possible maintenance effort level, thereby pushing agent's performance and achieve maximum utility for both parties involved. Principal agent theory is used as a modeling approach due to its ability to simultaneously modeled owner and agent decision making process. Compensation schemes considered in this research includes fixed price, cost sharing and revenue sharing. The optimal decision is obtained using a numerical method. The results show that if both parties are risk neutral, then there are infinite combination of fixed price, cost sharing and revenue sharing produced the same optimal solution. The combination of fixed price and cost sharing contract results in the optimal solution when the agent is risk averse, while the optimal combination of fixed price and revenue sharing contract is obtained when agent is risk averse. When both parties are risk averse, the optimal compensation scheme is a combination of fixed price, cost sharing and revenue sharing.

Multi-issue Agent Negotiation Based on Fairness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Baohe; Zheng, Sue; Wu, Hong

Agent-based e-commerce service has become a hotspot now. How to make the agent negotiation process quickly and high-efficiently is the main research direction of this area. In the multi-issue model, MAUT(Multi-attribute Utility Theory) or its derived theory usually consider little about the fairness of both negotiators. This work presents a general model of agent negotiation which considered the satisfaction of both negotiators via autonomous learning. The model can evaluate offers from the opponent agent based on the satisfaction degree, learn online to get the opponent's knowledge from interactive instances of history and negotiation of this time, make concessions dynamically based on fair object. Through building the optimal negotiation model, the bilateral negotiation achieved a higher efficiency and fairer deal.

Pain expressiveness and altruistic behavior: an exploration using agent-based modeling.

PubMed

de C Williams, Amanda C; Gallagher, Elizabeth; Fidalgo, Antonio R; Bentley, Peter J

2016-03-01

Predictions which invoke evolutionary mechanisms are hard to test. Agent-based modeling in artificial life offers a way to simulate behaviors and interactions in specific physical or social environments over many generations. The outcomes have implications for understanding adaptive value of behaviors in context. Pain-related behavior in animals is communicated to other animals that might protect or help, or might exploit or predate. An agent-based model simulated the effects of displaying or not displaying pain (expresser/nonexpresser strategies) when injured and of helping, ignoring, or exploiting another in pain (altruistic/nonaltruistic/selfish strategies). Agents modeled in MATLAB interacted at random while foraging (gaining energy); random injury interrupted foraging for a fixed time unless help from an altruistic agent, who paid an energy cost, speeded recovery. Environmental and social conditions also varied, and each model ran for 10,000 iterations. Findings were meaningful in that, in general, contingencies that evident from experimental work with a variety of mammals, over a few interactions, were replicated in the agent-based model after selection pressure over many generations. More energy-demanding expression of pain reduced its frequency in successive generations, and increasing injury frequency resulted in fewer expressers and altruists. Allowing exploitation of injured agents decreased expression of pain to near zero, but altruists remained. Decreasing costs or increasing benefits of helping hardly changed its frequency, whereas increasing interaction rate between injured agents and helpers diminished the benefits to both. Agent-based modeling allows simulation of complex behaviors and environmental pressures over evolutionary time.

Patterns of Use of an Agent-Based Model and a System Dynamics Model: The Application of Patterns of Use and the Impacts on Learning Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Kate; Reimann, Peter

2010-01-01

A classification system that was developed for the use of agent-based models was applied to strategies used by school-aged students to interrogate an agent-based model and a system dynamics model. These were compared, and relationships between learning outcomes and the strategies used were also analysed. It was found that the classification system…

Modelling multimodal expression of emotion in a virtual agent.

PubMed

Pelachaud, Catherine

2009-12-12

Over the past few years we have been developing an expressive embodied conversational agent system. In particular, we have developed a model of multimodal behaviours that includes dynamism and complex facial expressions. The first feature refers to the qualitative execution of behaviours. Our model is based on perceptual studies and encompasses several parameters that modulate multimodal behaviours. The second feature, the model of complex expressions, follows a componential approach where a new expression is obtained by combining facial areas of other expressions. Lately we have been working on adding temporal dynamism to expressions. So far they have been designed statically, typically at their apex. Only full-blown expressions could be modelled. To overcome this limitation, we have defined a representation scheme that describes the temporal evolution of the expression of an emotion. It is no longer represented by a static definition but by a temporally ordered sequence of multimodal signals.

From market games to real-world markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jefferies, P.; Hart, M. L.; Hui, P. M.; Johnson, N. F.

2001-04-01

This paper uses the development of multi-agent market models to present a unified approach to the joint questions of how financial market movements may be simulated, predicted, and hedged against. We first present the results of agent-based market simulations in which traders equipped with simple buy/sell strategies and limited information compete in speculatory trading. We examine the effect of different market clearing mechanisms and show that implementation of a simple Walrasian auction leads to unstable market dynamics. We then show that a more realistic out-of-equilibrium clearing process leads to dynamics that closely resemble real financial movements, with fat-tailed price increments, clustered volatility and high volume autocorrelation. We then show that replacing the `synthetic' price history used by these simulations with data taken from real financial time-series leads to the remarkable result that the agents can collectively learn to identify moments in the market where profit is attainable. Hence on real financial data, the system as a whole can perform better than random. We then employ the formalism of Bouchaud in conjunction with agent based models to show that in general risk cannot be eliminated from trading with these models. We also show that, in the presence of transaction costs, the risk of option writing is greatly increased. This risk, and the costs, can however be reduced through the use of a delta-hedging strategy with modified, time-dependent volatility structure.

Stochastic model of financial markets reproducing scaling and memory in volatility return intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gontis, V.; Havlin, S.; Kononovicius, A.; Podobnik, B.; Stanley, H. E.

2016-11-01

We investigate the volatility return intervals in the NYSE and FOREX markets. We explain previous empirical findings using a model based on the interacting agent hypothesis instead of the widely-used efficient market hypothesis. We derive macroscopic equations based on the microscopic herding interactions of agents and find that they are able to reproduce various stylized facts of different markets and different assets with the same set of model parameters. We show that the power-law properties and the scaling of return intervals and other financial variables have a similar origin and could be a result of a general class of non-linear stochastic differential equations derived from a master equation of an agent system that is coupled by herding interactions. Specifically, we find that this approach enables us to recover the volatility return interval statistics as well as volatility probability and spectral densities for the NYSE and FOREX markets, for different assets, and for different time-scales. We find also that the historical S&P500 monthly series exhibits the same volatility return interval properties recovered by our proposed model. Our statistical results suggest that human herding is so strong that it persists even when other evolving fluctuations perturbate the financial system.

Human Robotic Swarm Interaction Using an Artificial Physics Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-01

calculates virtual forces that are summed and translated into velocity commands. The virtual forces are modeled after real physical forces such as...results from the physical experiments show that an artificial physics-based framework is an effective way to allow multiple agents to follow a human... modeled after real physical forces such as gravitational and Coulomb, forces but are not restricted to them, for example, the force magnitude may not be

Quantitative simulation of intracellular signaling cascades in a Virtual Liver: estimating dose dependent changes in hepatocellular proliferation and apoptosis

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA Virtual Liver (v-Liver™) is developing an approach to predict dose-dependent hepatotoxicity as an in vivo tissue level response using in vitro data. The v-Liver accomplishes this using an in silico agent-based systems model that dynamically integrates environmental exp...

Repeated Challenge Studies: A Comparison of Union-Intersection Testing with Linear Modeling.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levine, Richard A.; Ohman, Pamela A.

1997-01-01

Challenge studies can be used to see whether there is a causal relationship between an agent of interest and a response. An approach based on union-intersection testing is presented that allows researchers to examine observations on a single subject and test the hypothesis of interest. An application using psychological data is presented. (SLD)

A new proposal for greenhouse gas emissions responsibility allocation: best available technologies approach.

PubMed

Berzosa, Álvaro; Barandica, Jesús M; Fernández-Sánchez, Gonzalo

2014-01-01

In recent years, several methodologies have been developed for the quantification of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, determining who is responsible for these emissions is also quite challenging. The most common approach is to assign emissions to the producer (based on the Kyoto Protocol), but proposals also exist for its allocation to the consumer (based on an ecological footprint perspective) and for a hybrid approach called shared responsibility. In this study, the existing proposals and standards regarding the allocation of GHG emissions responsibilities are analyzed, focusing on their main advantages and problems. A new model of shared responsibility that overcomes some of the existing problems is also proposed. This model is based on applying the best available technologies (BATs). This new approach allocates the responsibility between the producers and the final consumers based on the real capacity of each agent to reduce emissions. The proposed approach is demonstrated using a simple case study of a 4-step life cycle of ammonia nitrate (AN) fertilizer production. The proposed model has the characteristics that the standards and publications for assignment of GHG emissions responsibilities demand. This study presents a new way to assign responsibilities that pushes all the actors in the production chain, including consumers, to reduce pollution. © 2013 SETAC.

A Multi-Agent System Architecture for Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Fuentes-Fernández, Rubén; Guijarro, María; Pajares, Gonzalo

2009-01-01

The design of the control systems for sensor networks presents important challenges. Besides the traditional problems about how to process the sensor data to obtain the target information, engineers need to consider additional aspects such as the heterogeneity and high number of sensors, and the flexibility of these networks regarding topologies and the sensors in them. Although there are partial approaches for resolving these issues, their integration relies on ad hoc solutions requiring important development efforts. In order to provide an effective approach for this integration, this paper proposes an architecture based on the multi-agent system paradigm with a clear separation of concerns. The architecture considers sensors as devices used by an upper layer of manager agents. These agents are able to communicate and negotiate services to achieve the required functionality. Activities are organized according to roles related with the different aspects to integrate, mainly sensor management, data processing, communication and adaptation to changes in the available devices and their capabilities. This organization largely isolates and decouples the data management from the changing network, while encouraging reuse of solutions. The use of the architecture is facilitated by a specific modelling language developed through metamodelling. A case study concerning a generic distributed system for fire fighting illustrates the approach and the comparison with related work. PMID:22303172

A multi-agent system architecture for sensor networks.

PubMed

Fuentes-Fernández, Rubén; Guijarro, María; Pajares, Gonzalo

2009-01-01

The design of the control systems for sensor networks presents important challenges. Besides the traditional problems about how to process the sensor data to obtain the target information, engineers need to consider additional aspects such as the heterogeneity and high number of sensors, and the flexibility of these networks regarding topologies and the sensors in them. Although there are partial approaches for resolving these issues, their integration relies on ad hoc solutions requiring important development efforts. In order to provide an effective approach for this integration, this paper proposes an architecture based on the multi-agent system paradigm with a clear separation of concerns. The architecture considers sensors as devices used by an upper layer of manager agents. These agents are able to communicate and negotiate services to achieve the required functionality. Activities are organized according to roles related with the different aspects to integrate, mainly sensor management, data processing, communication and adaptation to changes in the available devices and their capabilities. This organization largely isolates and decouples the data management from the changing network, while encouraging reuse of solutions. The use of the architecture is facilitated by a specific modelling language developed through metamodelling. A case study concerning a generic distributed system for fire fighting illustrates the approach and the comparison with related work.

Peptide inhibitors of botulinum neurotoxin serotype A: design, inhibition, cocrystal structures, structure-activity relationship and pharmacophore modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar G.; Swaminathan S.; Kumaran, D.

Clostridium botulinum neurotoxins are classified as Category A bioterrorism agents by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The seven serotypes (A-G) of the botulinum neurotoxin, the causative agent of the disease botulism, block neurotransmitter release by specifically cleaving one of the three SNARE (soluble N-ethylmaleimide-sensitive factor attachment protein receptor) proteins and induce flaccid paralysis. Using a structure-based drug-design approach, a number of peptide inhibitors were designed and their inhibitory activity against botulinum serotype A (BoNT/A) protease was determined. The most potent peptide, RRGF, inhibited BoNT/A protease with an IC{sub 50} of 0.9 {micro}M and a K{sub i} ofmore » 358 nM. High-resolution crystal structures of various peptide inhibitors in complex with the BoNT/A protease domain were also determined. Based on the inhibitory activities and the atomic interactions deduced from the cocrystal structures, the structure-activity relationship was analyzed and a pharmacophore model was developed. Unlike the currently available models, this pharmacophore model is based on a number of enzyme-inhibitor peptide cocrystal structures and improved the existing models significantly, incorporating new features.« less

Peptide inhibitors of botulinum neurotoxin serotype A: design, inhibition, cocrystal structures, structure-activity relationship and pharmacophore modeling.

PubMed

Kumar, Gyanendra; Kumaran, Desigan; Ahmed, S Ashraf; Swaminathan, Subramanyam

2012-05-01

Clostridium botulinum neurotoxins are classified as Category A bioterrorism agents by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The seven serotypes (A-G) of the botulinum neurotoxin, the causative agent of the disease botulism, block neurotransmitter release by specifically cleaving one of the three SNARE (soluble N-ethylmaleimide-sensitive factor attachment protein receptor) proteins and induce flaccid paralysis. Using a structure-based drug-design approach, a number of peptide inhibitors were designed and their inhibitory activity against botulinum serotype A (BoNT/A) protease was determined. The most potent peptide, RRGF, inhibited BoNT/A protease with an IC(50) of 0.9 µM and a K(i) of 358 nM. High-resolution crystal structures of various peptide inhibitors in complex with the BoNT/A protease domain were also determined. Based on the inhibitory activities and the atomic interactions deduced from the cocrystal structures, the structure-activity relationship was analyzed and a pharmacophore model was developed. Unlike the currently available models, this pharmacophore model is based on a number of enzyme-inhibitor peptide cocrystal structures and improved the existing models significantly, incorporating new features. © 2012 International Union of Crystallography

Complementary proteomic approaches reveal mitochondrial dysfunction, immune and inflammatory dysregulation in a mouse model of Gulf War Illness.

PubMed

Zakirova, Zuchra; Reed, Jon; Crynen, Gogce; Horne, Lauren; Hassan, Samira; Mathura, Venkatarajan; Mullan, Michael; Crawford, Fiona; Ait-Ghezala, Ghania

2017-09-01

Long-term consequences of combined pyridostigmine bromide (PB) and permethrin (PER) exposure in C57BL6/J mice using a well-characterized mouse model of exposure to these Gulf War (GW) agents were explored at the protein level. We used orthogonal proteomic approaches to identify pathways that are chronically impacted in the mouse CNS due to semiacute GW agent exposure early in life. These analyses were performed on soluble and membrane-bound protein fractions from brain samples using two orthogonal isotopic labeling LC-MS/MS proteomic approaches-stable isotope dimethyl labeling and iTRAQ. The use of these approaches allowed for greater coverage of proteins than was possible by either one alone and revealed both distinct and overlapping datasets. This combined analysis identified changes in several mitochondrial, as well as immune and inflammatory pathways after GW agent exposure. The work discussed here provides insight into GW agent exposure dependent mechanisms that adversely affect mitochondrial function and immune and inflammatory regulation. Collectively, our work identified key pathways which were chronically impacted in the mouse CNS following acute GW agent exposure, this may lead to the identification of potential targets for therapeutic intervention in the future. Long-term consequences of combined PB and PER exposure in C57BL6/J mice using a well-characterized mouse model of exposure to these GW agents were explored at the protein level. Expanding on earlier work, we used orthogonal proteomic approaches to identify pathways that are chronically impacted in the mouse CNS due to semiacute GW agent exposure early in life. These analyses were performed on soluble and membrane-bound protein fractions from brain samples using two orthogonal isotopic labeling LC-MS/MS proteomic approaches-stable isotope dimethyl labeling and iTRAQ. The use of these approaches allowed for greater coverage of proteins than was possible by either one alone and revealed both distinct and overlapping datasets. This combined analysis identified changes in several mitochondrial, as well as immune and inflammatory pathways after GW agent exposure. The work discussed here provides insight into GW agent exposure dependent mechanisms that adversely affect mitochondrial function and immune and inflammatory regulation at 5 months postexposure to PB + PER. © 2017 The Authors. PROTEOMICS - Clinical Applications published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA.

A Generalized Quantum-Inspired Decision Making Model for Intelligent Agent

PubMed Central

Loo, Chu Kiong

2014-01-01

A novel decision making for intelligent agent using quantum-inspired approach is proposed. A formal, generalized solution to the problem is given. Mathematically, the proposed model is capable of modeling higher dimensional decision problems than previous researches. Four experiments are conducted, and both empirical experiments results and proposed model's experiment results are given for each experiment. Experiments showed that the results of proposed model agree with empirical results perfectly. The proposed model provides a new direction for researcher to resolve cognitive basis in designing intelligent agent. PMID:24778580

Decentralized Patrolling Under Constraints in Dynamic Environments.

PubMed

Shaofei Chen; Feng Wu; Lincheng Shen; Jing Chen; Ramchurn, Sarvapali D

2016-12-01

We investigate a decentralized patrolling problem for dynamic environments where information is distributed alongside threats. In this problem, agents obtain information at a location, but may suffer attacks from the threat at that location. In a decentralized fashion, each agent patrols in a designated area of the environment and interacts with a limited number of agents. Therefore, the goal of these agents is to coordinate to gather as much information as possible while limiting the damage incurred. Hence, we model this class of problem as a transition-decoupled partially observable Markov decision process with health constraints. Furthermore, we propose scalable decentralized online algorithms based on Monte Carlo tree search and a factored belief vector. We empirically evaluate our algorithms on decentralized patrolling problems and benchmark them against the state-of-the-art online planning solver. The results show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art by more than 56% for six agents patrolling problems and can scale up to 24 agents in reasonable time.

Quantifying human behavior uncertainties in a coupled agent-based model for water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyun, J. Y.; Yang, Y. C. E.; Tidwell, V. C.; Macknick, J.

2017-12-01

Modeling human behaviors and decisions in water resources management is a challenging issue due to its complexity and uncertain characteristics that affected by both internal (such as stakeholder's beliefs on any external information) and external factors (such as future policies and weather/climate forecast). Stakeholders' decision regarding how much water they need is usually not entirely rational in the real-world cases, so it is not quite suitable to model their decisions with a centralized (top-down) approach that assume everyone in a watershed follow the same order or pursue the same objective. Agent-based modeling (ABM) uses a decentralized approach (bottom-up) that allow each stakeholder to make his/her own decision based on his/her own objective and the belief of information acquired. In this study, we develop an ABM which incorporates the psychological human decision process by the theory of risk perception. The theory of risk perception quantifies human behaviors and decisions uncertainties using two sequential methodologies: the Bayesian Inference and the Cost-Loss Problem. The developed ABM is coupled with a regulation-based water system model: Riverware (RW) to evaluate different human decision uncertainties in water resources management. The San Juan River Basin in New Mexico (Figure 1) is chosen as a case study area, while we define 19 major irrigation districts as water use agents and their primary decision is to decide the irrigated area on an annual basis. This decision will be affected by three external factors: 1) upstream precipitation forecast (potential amount of water availability), 2) violation of the downstream minimum flow (required to support ecosystems), and 3) enforcement of a shortage sharing plan (a policy that is currently undertaken in the region for drought years). Three beliefs (as internal factors) that correspond to these three external factors will also be considered in the modeling framework. The objective of this study is to use the two-way coupling between ABM and RW to mimic how stakeholders' uncertain decisions that have been made through the theory of risk perception will affect local and basin-wide water uses.

Anti-inflammatory drugs and prediction of new structures by comparative analysis.

PubMed

Bartzatt, Ronald

2012-01-01

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are a group of agents important for their analgesic, anti-inflammatory, and antipyretic properties. This study presents several approaches to predict and elucidate new molecular structures of NSAIDs based on 36 known and proven anti-inflammatory compounds. Based on 36 known NSAIDs the mean value of Log P is found to be 3.338 (standard deviation= 1.237), mean value of polar surface area is 63.176 Angstroms2 (standard deviation = 20.951 A2), and the mean value of molecular weight is 292.665 (standard deviation = 55.627). Nine molecular properties are determined for these 36 NSAID agents, including Log P, number of -OH and -NHn, violations of Rule of 5, number of rotatable bonds, and number of oxygens and nitrogens. Statistical analysis of these nine molecular properties provides numerical parameters to conform to in the design of novel NSAID drug candidates. Multiple regression analysis is accomplished using these properties of 36 agents followed with examples of predicted molecular weight based on minimum and maximum property values. Hierarchical cluster analysis indicated that licofelone, tolfenamic acid, meclofenamic acid, droxicam, and aspirin are substantially distinct from all remaining NSAIDs. Analysis of similarity (ANOSIM) produced R = 0.4947, which indicates low to moderate level of dissimilarity between these 36 NSAIDs. Non-hierarchical K-means cluster analysis separated the 36 NSAIDs into four groups having members of greatest similarity. Likewise, discriminant analysis divided the 36 agents into two groups indicating the greatest level of distinction (discrimination) based on nine properties. These two multivariate methods together provide investigators a means to compare and elucidate novel drug designs to 36 proven compounds and ascertain to which of those are most analogous in pharmacodynamics. In addition, artificial neural network modeling is demonstrated as an approach to predict numerous molecular properties of new drug designs that is based on neural training from 36 proven NSAIDs. Comprehensive and effective approaches are presented in this study for the design of new NSAID type agents which are so very important for inhibition of COX-2 and COX-1 isoenzymes.

The necessary burden of involving stakeholders in agent-based modelling for education and decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bommel, P.; Bautista Solís, P.; Leclerc, G.

2016-12-01

We implemented a participatory process with water stakeholders for improving resilience to drought at watershed scale, and for reducing water pollution disputes in drought prone Northwestern Costa Rica. The purpose is to facilitate co-management in a rural watershed impacted by recurrent droughts related to ENSO. The process involved designing "ContaMiCuenca", a hybrid agent-based model where users can specify the decisions of their agents. We followed a Companion Modeling approach (www.commod.org) and organized 10 workshops that included research techniques such as participatory diagnostics, actor-resources-interaction and UML diagrams, multi-agents model design, and interactive simulation sessions. We collectively assessed the main water issues in the watershed, prioritized their importance, defined the objectives of the process, and pilot-tested ContaMiCuenca for environmental education with adults and children. Simulation sessions resulted in debates about the need to improve the model accuracy, arguably more relevant for decision-making. This helped identify sensible knowledge gaps in the groundwater pollution and aquifer dynamics that need to be addressed in order to improve our collective learning. Significant mismatches among participants expectations, objectives, and agendas considerably slowed down the participatory process. The main issue may originate in participants expecting technical solutions from a positivist science, as constantly promoted in the region by dole-out initiatives, which is incompatible with the constructivist stance of participatory modellers. This requires much closer interaction of community members with modellers, which may be hard to attain in the current research practice and institutional context. Nevertheless, overcoming these constraints is necessary for a true involvement of water stakeholders to achieve community-based decisions that facilitate integrated water management. Our findings provide significant guidance for improving the trans-generational engagement of stakeholders in participatory modeling processes in a context of limited technical skills and information, research expectative mismatches, and poor multi-stakeholder interaction for decision-making.

Peer pressure and Generalised Lotka Volterra models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richmond, Peter; Sabatelli, Lorenzo

2004-12-01

We develop a novel approach to peer pressure and Generalised Lotka-Volterra (GLV) models that builds on the development of a simple Langevin equation that characterises stochastic processes. We generalise the approach to stochastic equations that model interacting agents. The agent models recently advocated by Marsilli and Solomon are motivated. Using a simple change of variable, we show that the peer pressure model (similar to the one introduced by Marsilli) and the wealth dynamics model of Solomon may be (almost) mapped one into the other. This may help shed light in the (apparently) different wealth dynamics described by GLV and the Marsili-like peer pressure models.

Mobile code security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramalingam, Srikumar

2001-11-01

A highly secure mobile agent system is very important for a mobile computing environment. The security issues in mobile agent system comprise protecting mobile hosts from malicious agents, protecting agents from other malicious agents, protecting hosts from other malicious hosts and protecting agents from malicious hosts. Using traditional security mechanisms the first three security problems can be solved. Apart from using trusted hardware, very few approaches exist to protect mobile code from malicious hosts. Some of the approaches to solve this problem are the use of trusted computing, computing with encrypted function, steganography, cryptographic traces, Seal Calculas, etc. This paper focuses on the simulation of some of these existing techniques in the designed mobile language. Some new approaches to solve malicious network problem and agent tampering problem are developed using public key encryption system and steganographic concepts. The approaches are based on encrypting and hiding the partial solutions of the mobile agents. The partial results are stored and the address of the storage is destroyed as the agent moves from one host to another host. This allows only the originator to make use of the partial results. Through these approaches some of the existing problems are solved.

Virtual tissues in toxicology.

PubMed

Shah, Imran; Wambaugh, John

2010-02-01

New approaches are vital for efficiently evaluating human health risk of thousands of chemicals in commerce. In vitro models offer a high-throughput approach for assaying chemical-induced molecular and cellular changes; however, bridging these perturbations to in vivo effects across chemicals, dose, time, and species remains challenging. Technological advances in multiresolution imaging and multiscale simulation are making it feasible to reconstruct tissues in silico. In toxicology, these "virtual" tissues (VT) aim to predict histopathological outcomes from alterations of cellular phenotypes that are controlled by chemical-induced perturbations in molecular pathways. The behaviors of thousands of heterogeneous cells in tissues are simulated discretely using agent-based modeling (ABM), in which computational "agents" mimic cell interactions and cellular responses to the microenvironment. The behavior of agents is constrained by physical laws and biological rules derived from experimental evidence. VT extend compartmental physiologic models to simulate both acute insults as well as the chronic effects of low-dose exposure. Furthermore, agent behavior can encode the logic of signaling and genetic regulatory networks to evaluate the role of different pathways in chemical-induced injury. To extrapolate toxicity across species, chemicals, and doses, VT require four main components: (a) organization of prior knowledge on physiologic events to define the mechanistic rules for agent behavior, (b) knowledge on key chemical-induced molecular effects, including activation of stress sensors and changes in molecular pathways that alter the cellular phenotype, (c) multiresolution quantitative and qualitative analysis of histologic data to characterize and measure chemical-, dose-, and time-dependent physiologic events, and (d) multiscale, spatiotemporal simulation frameworks to effectively calibrate and evaluate VT using experimental data. This investigation presents the motivation, implementation, and application of VT with examples from hepatotoxicity and carcinogenesis.

Costs of Providing Infusion Therapy for Rheumatoid Arthritis in a Hospital-based Infusion Center Setting.

PubMed

Schmier, Jordana; Ogden, Kristine; Nickman, Nancy; Halpern, Michael T; Cifaldi, Mary; Ganguli, Arijit; Bao, Yanjun; Garg, Vishvas

2017-08-01

Many hospital-based infusion centers treat patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with intravenous biologic agents, yet may have a limited understanding of the overall costs of infusion in this setting. The purposes of this study were to conduct a microcosting analysis from a hospital perspective and to develop a model using an activity-based costing approach for estimating costs associated with the provision of hospital-based infusion services (preparation, administration, and follow-up) in the United States for maintenance treatment of moderate to severe RA. A spreadsheet-based model was developed. Inputs included hourly wages, time spent providing care, supply/overhead costs, laboratory testing, infusion center size, and practice pattern information. Base-case values were derived from data from surveys, published studies, standard cost sources, and expert opinion. Costs are presented in year-2017 US dollars. The base case modeled a hospital infusion center serving patients with RA treated with abatacept, tocilizumab, infliximab, or rituximab. Estimated overall costs of infusions per patient per year were $36,663 (rituximab), $36,821 (tocilizumab), $44,973 (infliximab), and $46,532 (abatacept). Of all therapies, the biologic agents represented the greatest share of overall costs, ranging from 87% to $91% of overall costs per year. Excluding infusion drug costs, labor accounted for 53% to 57% of infusion costs. Biologic agents represented the highest single cost associated with RA infusion care; however, personnel, supplies, and overhead costs also contributed substantially to overall costs (8%-16%). This model may provide a helpful and adaptable framework for use by hospitals in informing decision making about services offered and their associated financial implications. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Little by Little Does the Trick: Design and Construction of a Discrete Event Agent-Based Simulation Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-12-01

model. Finally, we build a small agent-based model using the component architecture to demonstrate the library’s functionality. 15. NUMBER OF...and a Behavioral model. Finally, we build a small agent-based model using the component architecture to demonstrate the library’s functionality...prototypes an architectural design which is generalizable, reusable, and extensible. We have created an initial set of model elements that demonstrate

The fractional volatility model: An agent-based interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilela Mendes, R.

2008-06-01

Based on the criteria of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a model with volatility driven by fractional noise has been constructed which provides a fairly accurate mathematical parametrization of the data. Here, some features of the model are reviewed and extended to account for leverage effects. Using agent-based models, one tries to find which agent strategies and (or) properties of the financial institutions might be responsible for the features of the fractional volatility model.

A place for agent-based models. Comment on "Statistical physics of crime: A review" by M.R. D'Orsogna and M. Perc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbaro, Alethea

2015-03-01

Agent-based models have been widely applied in theoretical ecology to explain migrations and other collective animal movements [2,5,8]. As D'Orsogna and Perc have expertly highlighted in [6], the recent emergence of crime modeling has opened another interesting avenue for mathematical investigation. The area of crime modeling is particularly suited to agent-based models, because these models offer a great deal of flexibility within the model and also ease of communication among criminologist, law enforcement and modelers.

A Graphical Approach to the Standard Principal-Agent Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhou, Xianming

2002-01-01

States the principal-agent theory is difficult to teach because of its technical complexity and intractability. Indicates the equilibrium in the contract space is defined by the incentive parameter and insurance component of pay under a linear contract. Describes a graphical approach that students with basic knowledge of algebra and…

Coordinating teams of autonomous vehicles: an architectural perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czichon, Cary; Peterson, Robert W.; Mettala, Erik G.; Vondrak, Ivo

2005-05-01

In defense-related robotics research, a mission level integration gap exists between mission tasks (tactical) performed by ground, sea, or air applications and elementary behaviors enacted by processing, communications, sensors, and weaponry resources (platform specific). The gap spans ensemble (heterogeneous team) behaviors, automatic MOE/MOP tracking, and tactical task modeling/simulation for virtual and mixed teams comprised of robotic and human combatants. This study surveys robotic system architectures, compares approaches for navigating problem/state spaces by autonomous systems, describes an architecture for an integrated, repository-based modeling, simulation, and execution environment, and outlines a multi-tiered scheme for robotic behavior components that is agent-based, platform-independent, and extendable via plug-ins. Tools for this integrated environment, along with a distributed agent framework for collaborative task performance are being developed by a U.S. Army funded SBIR project (RDECOM Contract N61339-04-C-0005).

An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Community Flood Risk.

PubMed

Tonn, Gina L; Guikema, Seth D

2018-06-01

Although individual behavior plays a major role in community flood risk, traditional flood risk models generally do not capture information on how community policies and individual decisions impact the evolution of flood risk over time. The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of the temporal aspects of flood risk through a combined analysis of the behavioral, engineering, and physical hazard aspects of flood risk. Additionally, the study aims to develop a new modeling approach for integrating behavior, policy, flood hazards, and engineering interventions. An agent-based model (ABM) is used to analyze the influence of flood protection measures, individual behavior, and the occurrence of floods and near-miss flood events on community flood risk. The ABM focuses on the following decisions and behaviors: dissemination of flood management information, installation of community flood protection, elevation of household mechanical equipment, and elevation of homes. The approach is place based, with a case study area in Fargo, North Dakota, but is focused on generalizable insights. Generally, community mitigation results in reduced future damage, and individual action, including mitigation and movement into and out of high-risk areas, can have a significant influence on community flood risk. The results of this study provide useful insights into the interplay between individual and community actions and how it affects the evolution of flood risk. This study lends insight into priorities for future work, including the development of more in-depth behavioral and decision rules at the individual and community level. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Multi-agent modelling of climate outlooks and food security on a community garden scheme in Limpopo, South Africa.

PubMed

Bharwani, Sukaina; Bithell, Mike; Downing, Thomas E; New, Mark; Washington, Richard; Ziervogel, Gina

2005-11-29

Seasonal climate outlooks provide one tool to help decision-makers allocate resources in anticipation of poor, fair or good seasons. The aim of the 'Climate Outlooks and Agent-Based Simulation of Adaptation in South Africa' project has been to investigate whether individuals, who adapt gradually to annual climate variability, are better equipped to respond to longer-term climate variability and change in a sustainable manner. Seasonal climate outlooks provide information on expected annual rainfall and thus can be used to adjust seasonal agricultural strategies to respond to expected climate conditions. A case study of smallholder farmers in a village in Vhembe district, Limpopo Province, South Africa has been used to examine how such climate outlooks might influence agricultural strategies and how this climate information can be improved to be more useful to farmers. Empirical field data has been collected using surveys, participatory approaches and computer-based knowledge elicitation tools to investigate the drivers of decision-making with a focus on the role of climate, market and livelihood needs. This data is used in an agent-based social simulation which incorporates household agents with varying adaptation options which result in differing impacts on crop yields and thus food security, as a result of using or ignoring the seasonal outlook. Key variables are the skill of the forecast, the social communication of the forecast and the range of available household and community-based risk coping strategies. This research provides a novel approach for exploring adaptation within the context of climate change.

CHAMPION: Intelligent Hierarchical Reasoning Agents for Enhanced Decision Support

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hohimer, Ryan E.; Greitzer, Frank L.; Noonan, Christine F.

2011-11-15

We describe the design and development of an advanced reasoning framework employing semantic technologies, organized within a hierarchy of computational reasoning agents that interpret domain specific information. Designed based on an inspirational metaphor of the pattern recognition functions performed by the human neocortex, the CHAMPION reasoning framework represents a new computational modeling approach that derives invariant knowledge representations through memory-prediction belief propagation processes that are driven by formal ontological language specification and semantic technologies. The CHAMPION framework shows promise for enhancing complex decision making in diverse problem domains including cyber security, nonproliferation and energy consumption analysis.

An Exploratory Study of the Butterfly Effect Using Agent-Based Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khasawneh, Mahmoud T.; Zhang, Jun; Shearer, Nevan E. N.; Rodriquez-Velasquez, Elkin; Bowling, Shannon R.

2010-01-01

This paper provides insights about the behavior of chaotic complex systems, and the sensitive dependence of the system on the initial starting conditions. How much does a small change in the initial conditions of a complex system affect it in the long term? Do complex systems exhibit what is called the "Butterfly Effect"? This paper uses an agent-based modeling approach to address these questions. An existing model from NetLogo library was extended in order to compare chaotic complex systems with near-identical initial conditions. Results show that small changes in initial starting conditions can have a huge impact on the behavior of chaotic complex systems. The term the "butterfly effect" is attributed to the work of Edward Lorenz [1]. It is used to describe the sensitive dependence of the behavior of chaotic complex systems on the initial conditions of these systems. The metaphor refers to the notion that a butterfly flapping its wings somewhere may cause extreme changes in the ecological system's behavior in the future, such as a hurricane.

A desirability-based multi objective approach for the virtual screening discovery of broad-spectrum anti-gastric cancer agents

PubMed Central

Sánchez-Rodríguez, Aminael; Tejera, Eduardo; Cruz-Monteagudo, Maykel; Borges, Fernanda; Cordeiro, M. Natália D. S.; Le-Thi-Thu, Huong; Pham-The, Hai

2018-01-01

Gastric cancer is the third leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide and despite advances in prevention, diagnosis and therapy, it is still regarded as a global health concern. The efficacy of the therapies for gastric cancer is limited by a poor response to currently available therapeutic regimens. One of the reasons that may explain these poor clinical outcomes is the highly heterogeneous nature of this disease. In this sense, it is essential to discover new molecular agents capable of targeting various gastric cancer subtypes simultaneously. Here, we present a multi-objective approach for the ligand-based virtual screening discovery of chemical compounds simultaneously active against the gastric cancer cell lines AGS, NCI-N87 and SNU-1. The proposed approach relays in a novel methodology based on the development of ensemble models for the bioactivity prediction against each individual gastric cancer cell line. The methodology includes the aggregation of one ensemble per cell line using a desirability-based algorithm into virtual screening protocols. Our research leads to the proposal of a multi-targeted virtual screening protocol able to achieve high enrichment of known chemicals with anti-gastric cancer activity. Specifically, our results indicate that, using the proposed protocol, it is possible to retrieve almost 20 more times multi-targeted compounds in the first 1% of the ranked list than what is expected from a uniform distribution of the active ones in the virtual screening database. More importantly, the proposed protocol attains an outstanding initial enrichment of known multi-targeted anti-gastric cancer agents. PMID:29420638

A Protein Aggregation Based Test for Screening of the Agents Affecting Thermostability of Proteins

PubMed Central

Eronina, Tatyana; Borzova, Vera; Maloletkina, Olga; Kleymenov, Sergey; Asryants, Regina; Markossian, Kira; Kurganov, Boris

2011-01-01

To search for agents affecting thermal stability of proteins, a test based on the registration of protein aggregation in the regime of heating with a constant rate was used. The initial parts of the dependences of the light scattering intensity (I) on temperature (T) were analyzed using the following empiric equation: I = K agg(T−T 0)2, where K agg is the parameter characterizing the initial rate of aggregation and T 0 is a temperature at which the initial increase in the light scattering intensity is registered. The aggregation data are interpreted in the frame of the model assuming the formation of the start aggregates at the initial stages of the aggregation process. Parameter T 0 corresponds to the moment of the origination of the start aggregates. The applicability of the proposed approach was demonstrated on the examples of thermal aggregation of glycogen phosphorylase b from rabbit skeletal muscles and bovine liver glutamate dehydrogenase studied in the presence of agents of different chemical nature. The elaborated approach to the study of protein aggregation may be used for rapid identification of small molecules that interact with protein targets. PMID:21760963

An agent-based model for emotion contagion and competition in online social media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Rui; Xu, Ke; Zhao, Jichang

2018-04-01

Recent studies suggest that human emotions diffuse in not only real-world communities but also online social media. However, a comprehensive model that considers up-to-date findings and multiple online social media mechanisms is still missing. To bridge this vital gap, an agent-based model, which concurrently considers emotion influence and tie strength preferences, is presented to simulate the emotion contagion and competition. Our model well reproduces patterns observed in the empirical data, like anger's preference on weak ties, anger-dominated users' high vitalities and angry tweets' short retweet intervals, and anger's competitiveness in negative events. The comparison with a previously presented baseline model further demonstrates its effectiveness in modeling online emotion contagion. It is also surprisingly revealed by our model that as the ratio of anger approaches joy with a gap less than 12%, anger will eventually dominate the online social media and arrives the collective outrage in the cyber space. The critical gap disclosed here can be indeed warning signals at early stages for outrage control. Our model would shed lights on the study of multiple issues regarding emotion contagion and competition in terms of computer simulations.