Science.gov

Sample records for agents expert opinion

  1. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    PubMed Central

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops. PMID:24637724

  2. Practical problems in aggregating expert opinions

    SciTech Connect

    Booker, J.M.; Picard, R.R.; Meyer, M.A.

    1993-11-01

    Expert opinion is data given by a qualified person in response to a technical question. In these analyses, expert opinion provides information where other data are either sparse or non-existent. Improvements in forecasting result from the advantageous addition of expert opinion to observed data in many areas, such as meteorology and econometrics. More generally, analyses of large, complex systems often involve experts on various components of the system supplying input to a decision process; applications include such wide-ranging areas as nuclear reactor safety, management science, and seismology. For large or complex applications, no single expert may be knowledgeable enough about the entire application. In other problems, decision makers may find it comforting that a consensus or aggregation of opinions is usually better than a single opinion. Many risk and reliability studies require a single estimate for modeling, analysis, reporting, and decision making purposes. For problems with large uncertainties, the strategy of combining as diverse a set of experts as possible hedges against underestimation of that uncertainty. Decision makers are frequently faced with the task of selecting the experts and combining their opinions. However, the aggregation is often the responsibility of an analyst. Whether the decision maker or the analyst does the aggregation, the input for it, such as providing weights for experts or estimating other parameters, is imperfect owing to a lack of omniscience. Aggregation methods for expert opinions have existed for over thirty years; yet many of the difficulties with their use remain unresolved. The bulk of these problem areas are summarized in the sections that follow: sensitivities of results to assumptions, weights for experts, correlation of experts, and handling uncertainties. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the sources of these problems and describe their effects on aggregation.

  3. 42 CFR 1008.33 - Expert opinions from outside sources.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Expert opinions from outside sources. 1008.33 Section 1008.33 Public Health OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL-HEALTH CARE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Advisory Opinion Fees § 1008.33 Expert opinions...

  4. 49 CFR 1503.645 - Expert or opinion witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... PROCEDURES Rules of Practice in TSA Civil Penalty Actions § 1503.645 Expert or opinion witnesses. An employee of the agency may not be called as an expert or opinion witness, for any party other than TSA, in any... an expert or opinion witness for TSA in any proceeding governed by this subpart to which...

  5. Opinion evolution influenced by informed agents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Kangqi; Pedrycz, Witold

    2016-11-01

    Guiding public opinions toward a pre-set target by informed agents can be a strategy adopted in some practical applications. The informed agents are common agents who are employed or chosen to spread the pre-set opinion. In this work, we propose a social judgment based opinion (SJBO) dynamics model to explore the opinion evolution under the influence of informed agents. The SJBO model distinguishes between inner opinions and observable choices, and incorporates both the compromise between similar opinions and the repulsion between dissimilar opinions. Three choices (support, opposition, and remaining undecided) are considered in the SJBO model. Using the SJBO model, both the inner opinions and the observable choices can be tracked during the opinion evolution process. The simulation results indicate that if the exchanges of inner opinions among agents are not available, the effect of informed agents is mainly dependent on the characteristics of regular agents, including the assimilation threshold, decay threshold, and initial opinions. Increasing the assimilation threshold and decay threshold can improve the guiding effectiveness of informed agents. Moreover, if the initial opinions of regular agents are close to null, the full and unanimous consensus at the pre-set opinion can be realized, indicating that, to maximize the influence of informed agents, the guidance should be started when regular agents have little knowledge about a subject under consideration. If the regular agents have had clear opinions, the full and unanimous consensus at the pre-set opinion cannot be achieved. However, the introduction of informed agents can make the majority of agents choose the pre-set opinion.

  6. Graphic Novels in Libraries: An Expert's Opinion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Katy

    2004-01-01

    Barbara Gordon a librarian and computer expert from Gotham city is a genius level intellect and photographic memory expert at research and analysis. According to her, graphic novels and comics are wildly appealing to readers of all ages and intensely popular with adolescents.

  7. 42 CFR 411.377 - Expert opinions from outside sources.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Expert opinions from outside sources. 411.377 Section 411.377 Public Health CENTERS FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN... Relationships Between Physicians and Entities Furnishing Designated Health Services § 411.377 Expert...

  8. ACOG Committee Opinion No. 374: Expert testimony.

    PubMed

    2007-08-01

    It is the duty of obstetricians and gynecologists who testify as expert witnesses on behalf of defendants, the government, or plaintiffs to do so solely in accordance with their judgment on the merits of the case. Obstetrician-gynecologists must limit testimony to their sphere of medical expertise and must be prepared adequately. They must make a clear distinction between medical malpractice and medical maloccurrence. The acceptance of fees that are greatly disproportionate to those customary for professional services can be construed as influencing testimony given by the witness, and it is unethical to accept compensation that is contingent on the outcome of litigation. PMID:17666622

  9. Quantifying ecosystem quality by modeling multi-attribute expert opinion.

    PubMed

    Sinclair, Steve J; Griffioen, Peter; Duncan, David H; Millett-Riley, Jessica E; Whitei, Matthew D

    2015-09-01

    The evaluation of ecosystem quality is inherently subjective, requiring decisions about which variables to notice or measure, and how these variables are integrated into a coherent evaluation. Despite the central role of human judgment, few evaluation methods address the subjectivity that is inherent in their design. There are, however, advantages to directly using opinion to create an expert system where the metric is constructed around opinion data. These advantages include stakeholder inclusion and the encouragement of a dialogue of data-driven criticism rather than subjective counter-opinion. We create an expert system to express the quality of a grassland ecosystem in Australia. We use an ensemble of bagged regression trees trained on calibrated expert preference data, to model the perceived quality of this grassland using a set of eight site variables as inputs. The model provides useful predictions of grassland quality, producing predictions similar to real expert evaluations of independent synthetic test sites not used to train the model. We apply the model to real grassland sites ranging from pristine to highly degraded, and confirm that our model orders the sites according to their degree of modification. We demonstrate that the use of too few experts produces relatively poor results, and show that for our problem the use of data from over twenty experts is appropriate. The scaling approach we used to calibrate between-expert data is shown to be an appropriate mechanism for aggregating the opinions of multiple experts. The resultant model will be useful in many contexts, and can be used by managers as a tool to evaluate real sites. It can also be integrated into ecological models of change as a means of evaluating predicted changes, for example, as a measure of utility when combined with cost estimates. The basic approach demonstrated here is applicable to any ecosystem, and we discuss the opportunities and limitations of its wider use.

  10. 38 CFR 14.808 - Expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... witness of a request for opinion or expert testimony concerning official VA information, subjects or... testimony. 14.808 Section 14.808 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS LEGAL SERVICES, GENERAL COUNSEL, AND MISCELLANEOUS CLAIMS Testimony of Department Personnel...

  11. 37 CFR 104.23 - Expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Expert or opinion testimony. 104.23 Section 104.23 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ADMINISTRATION LEGAL PROCESSES Employee Testimony and Production of Documents in...

  12. 29 CFR 18.703 - Bases of opinion testimony by experts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2014-07-01 2013-07-01 true Bases of opinion testimony by experts. 18.703 Section 18.703... Bases of opinion testimony by experts. The facts or data in the particular case upon which an expert bases an opinion or inference may be those perceived by or made known to the expert at or before...

  13. 29 CFR 18.703 - Bases of opinion testimony by experts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Bases of opinion testimony by experts. 18.703 Section 18.703... Bases of opinion testimony by experts. The facts or data in the particular case upon which an expert bases an opinion or inference may be those perceived by or made known to the expert at or before...

  14. 29 CFR 18.703 - Bases of opinion testimony by experts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Bases of opinion testimony by experts. 18.703 Section 18... Bases of opinion testimony by experts. The facts or data in the particular case upon which an expert bases an opinion or inference may be those perceived by or made known to the expert at or before...

  15. 29 CFR 18.705 - Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion. 18... Testimony § 18.705 Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion. The expert may testify in terms of opinion or inference and give reasons therefor without prior disclosure of the underlying facts or...

  16. Refining literature curated protein interactions using expert opinions.

    PubMed

    Tastan, Oznur; Qi, Yanjun; Carbonell, Jaime G; Klein-Seetharaman, Judith

    2015-01-01

    The availability of high-quality physical interaction datasets is a prerequisite for system-level analysis of interactomes and supervised models to predict protein-protein interactions (PPIs). One source is literature-curated PPI databases in which pairwise associations of proteins published in the scientific literature are deposited. However, PPIs may not be clearly labelled as physical interactions affecting the quality of the entire dataset. In order to obtain a high-quality gold standard dataset for PPIs between human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1) and its human host, we adopted a crowd-sourcing approach. We collected expert opinions and utilized an expectation-maximization based approach to estimate expert labeling quality. These estimates are used to infer the probability of a reported PPI actually being a direct physical interaction given the set of expert opinions. The effectiveness of our approach is demonstrated through synthetic data experiments and a high quality physical interaction network between HIV and human proteins is obtained. Since many literature-curated databases suffer from similar challenges, the framework described herein could be utilized in refining other databases. The curated data is available at http://www.cs.bilkent.edu.tr/~oznur.tastan/supp/psb2015/.

  17. [Burns caused by cement mortar (based on expert opinion)].

    PubMed

    Kleinhans, D

    1984-01-01

    A 35-year-old farmer with scars on his right arm, following erosion obviously due to wet cement (case of an expert opinion), was examined. Cement water had continuously soaked his shirt while he was planing a freshly applied wet cement ceiling with his right arm upwards. The cement did not contain special additives, so the normal alkalinity of wet cement and occlusion effects caused the erosion. The farmer sued the manufacturer of the cement for damages because of missing warning notices. The court decided in his favor.

  18. Expert opinions on success factors for upper-limb prostheses.

    PubMed

    Schultz, Aimee E; Baade, Susan P; Kuiken, Todd A

    2007-01-01

    The goal of this study was to gather the opinions of prosthetics experts on the most important factors for the successful use of upper-limb (UL) prostheses, compare them with those of prosthesis users, and ultimately direct research efforts in this field. UL prosthetics experts were asked to compare the importance of the comfort, function, and cosmesis of a prosthetic device for a transhumeral amputee. Categories were subdivided into weight, socket-interface comfort, power, agility, color, and shape. The majority of those who responded viewed comfort as the most important factor for a unilateral amputee and considered socket-interface comfort to be more important than weight. Function was considered to be the most important factor for a bilateral amputee, with agility considered more important than power. Cosmesis was consistently reported as being less important than comfort and function, and shape was considered more important than color.

  19. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence: the precautionary principle applied to GM crops.

    PubMed

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops.

  20. Melasma and Post Inflammatory Hyperpigmentation: Management Update and Expert Opinion.

    PubMed

    Sofen, B; Prado, G; Emer, J

    2016-01-01

    Dyschromia is a leading cause for cosmetic consultation, especially in those with diverse skin types (mixture of ethnicities) and with the rise of non-core and untrained physicians performing cosmetic procedures. Melasma and post-inflammatory hyperpigmentation (PIH) account for the majority of cases and are characterized by pigmented macules and patches distributed symmetrically in sun-exposed areas of the forehead, cheeks, and chin in melasma, and irregularly in areas of inflammation or an inciting traumatic event with PIH. Treatment is challenging and focused on a variety of mechanisms to stop, hinder, and/or prevent steps in the pigment production (melanocytic hyperactivity) process, breaking down deposited pigment for internal removal or external release, exfoliating cells to enhance turnover, and decreasing inflammation. Topical lightening therapy in combination with sun protection is essential for potential improvement. The most commonly prescribed and researched topical lightening agents are hydroquinone (HQ), azelaic acid (AzA), and retinoids - although only HQ and a triple combination cream (Tri-Luma®; fluocinolone acetonide 0.01%, HQ 4%, tretinoin 0.05%) are US FDA-approved for "bleaching of hyperpigmented skin" (HQ) and "melasma" (Tri-Luma®). Numerous non-HQ brightening/lightening agents, including antioxidant and botanical cosmeceuticals, have recently flooded the market with improvements that claim less irritant potential, as well as avoiding the stigmata associated with HQ agents such as carcinogenesis and cutaneous ochronosis. Combining topical therapy with procedures such as chemical peels, intense pulsed light (IPL), fractional non-ablative lasers or radiofrequency, pigment lasers (microsecond, picosecond, Q-switched), and microneedling, enhances results. With proper treatment, melasma can be controlled, improved, and maintained; alternatively, PIH can be cured in most cases. Herein, we review treatments for both conditions and provide an opinion

  1. 29 CFR 18.705 - Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion. 18.705 Section 18.705 Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE FOR ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS BEFORE THE OFFICE OF ADMINISTRATIVE LAW JUDGES Rules of Evidence Opinions and...

  2. Expert opinion on the cough hypersensitivity syndrome in respiratory medicine.

    PubMed

    Morice, Alyn H; Millqvist, Eva; Belvisi, Maria G; Bieksiene, Kristina; Birring, Surinder S; Chung, Kian Fan; Dal Negro, Roberto W; Dicpinigaitis, Peter; Kantar, Ahmad; McGarvey, Lorcan P; Pacheco, Adalberto; Sakalauskas, Raimundas; Smith, Jaclyn A

    2014-11-01

    In 2011, a European Respiratory Society Task Force embarked on a process to determine the position and clinical relevance of the cough hypersensitivity syndrome, a disorder characterised by troublesome coughing often triggered by low levels of thermal, mechanical or chemical exposure, in the management of patients with chronic cough. A 21-component questionnaire was developed by an iterative process supported by a literature review. 44 key opinion leaders in respiratory medicine were selected and interviewed as to their opinions. There was a high degree of unanimity in the responses obtained, with all opinion leaders supporting the concept of cough hypersensitivity as a clinically useful paradigm. The classic stratification of cough into asthmatic, rhinitic and reflux-related phenotypes was supported. Significant disparity of opinion was seen in the response to two questions concerning the therapy of chronic cough. First, the role of acid suppression in reflux cough was questioned. Secondly, the opinion leaders were split as to whether a trial of oral steroids was indicated to establish a diagnosis of eosinophilic cough. The cough hypersensitivity syndrome was clearly endorsed by the opinion leaders as a valid and useful concept. They considered that support of patients with chronic cough was inadequate and the Task Force recommends that further work is urgently required in this neglected area.

  3. 6 CFR 5.49 - Prohibition on providing expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... expert or opinion testimony. (a) Except as provided in this section, and subject to 5 CFR 2635.805... with 5 CFR 2635.805, in their discretion and with the concurrence of the Office of the General Counsel... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Prohibition on providing expert or...

  4. Comparing Powerpoint Experts' and University Students' Opinions about Powerpoint Presentations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mackiewicz, Jo

    2008-01-01

    Technical communication instructors want to help students, as well as professionals, design effective PowerPoint presentations. Toward this end, I compare the advice of academic and industry experts about effective PowerPoint presentation design to survey responses from university students about slide text, visual elements, animations, and other…

  5. Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

  6. The Appeal to Expert Opinion: Quantitative Support for a Bayesian Network Approach.

    PubMed

    Harris, Adam J L; Hahn, Ulrike; Madsen, Jens K; Hsu, Anne S

    2016-08-01

    The appeal to expert opinion is an argument form that uses the verdict of an expert to support a position or hypothesis. A previous scheme-based treatment of the argument form is formalized within a Bayesian network that is able to capture the critical aspects of the argument form, including the central considerations of the expert's expertise and trustworthiness. We propose this as an appropriate normative framework for the argument form, enabling the development and testing of quantitative predictions as to how people evaluate this argument, suggesting that such an approach might be beneficial to argumentation research generally. We subsequently present two experiments as an example of the potential for future research in this vein, demonstrating that participants' quantitative ratings of the convincingness of a proposition that has been supported with an appeal to expert opinion were broadly consistent with the predictions of the Bayesian model.

  7. Psychogenic spasmodic dysphonia: a case study with expert opinions.

    PubMed

    Sapir, S

    1995-09-01

    Spasmodic (spastic) dysphonia (SD) is considered by some to be a neurologic syndrome and by others a symptom complex of multiple etiologies, neurologic and psychogenic. A case of a 26-year-old female psychiatric nurse with psychogenic SD (PSD) is presented. The dysphonia was alleviated within one session of voice therapy. Psychogenic etiology was established by the author, based on three diagnostic criteria--symptom incongruity, symptom reversibility, and symptom psychogenicity. Seven nationally recognized voice experts listened to audio-recorded samples of the patient's pre- and posttherapy voice during conversational speech. The experts agreed that the dysphonia was psychogenic and characterized it as staccato-like speech, effortful phonation, and interrupted flow of speech; six characterized it with intermittent voice arrests (voice stoppages); five with hoarse-harsh voice; and four with waxing and waning, strained-strangled phonation. These are often described as salient features of SD. Nevertheless, the experts disagreed among themselves as to whether the dysphonia was characteristic of SD and should be labeled as such. The author argues that as long as the voice characteristics and pathophysiologic findings that constitute SD are not well delineated, and as long as the diagnosis of SD is based on symptoms alone, patients with psychogenic or poorly understood voice disorders are likely to be misdiagnosed with organic (neurologic) SD and thus subjected to undue medical treatment. The author also argues that the debate over the etiology of SD can be resolved if SD is considered a neurologic syndrome, PSD a nonorganic phonatory disorder that mimics the syndrome, and if the voice symptoms and pathophysiologic characteristics of SD are well defined and agreed on.

  8. Fluoride in drinking water: A survey of expert opinions.

    PubMed

    Rajagopal, R; Tobin, G

    1991-03-01

    In recent years, public debate over the standard setting process related to fluoride in drinking water and the fiuoridation of water supplies has been steeped in much controversy. Discussion of such issues has been con strained by the limited consideration of options relevant to particular problems. To examine the responses to specific issues, we presented an analysis of the problem of excessive fluoride in drinking water to a group of 120 experts. Ninety-seven of the 120 responded to a detailed mail questionnaire distributed as part of a larger exploratory survey. Definite patterns in preferences were noted with certain aspects of the problem, although in some cases significant differences were found due to such factors as the institutional affiliation, residential status, and the length of professional experience of the participants. In general, our experts preferred immediate corrective action over extensive further research into the reduction of scientific uncertainties; were willing to take personal action to obtain fluoride-free water rather than wait for official action; preferred the supplier to fluoridate the supplies, if needed; and favoured a strong local control of such issues with consumers of public water systems and private well owners shouldering much of the financial responsibility. Preliminary results from such exploratory surveys can lead to insightful research hypotheses for further testing. Verification of such hypotheses by consumers, from areas with excessive fluoride in drinking water, is a valuable area for future research.

  9. Stochastic model of agent interaction with opinion leaders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellero, Andrea; Fasano, Giovanni; Sorato, Annamaria

    2013-04-01

    We analyze the problem of agents' interactions in a given population. The purpose of this paper is twofold. Starting from a scheme proposed by Galam [Physica A0378-437110.1016/S0378-4371(02)01582-0 320, 571 (2003)], which is based on a majority rule to treat the individuals’ interactions, we first study some of its relevant properties. Then, we introduce special individuals, called opinion leaders, who play a key role in information spreading in several practical applications. Opinion leaders have the special feature of strongly interfering with the process based on the majority rule, speeding up the diffusion. We consider a model describing agents’ interactions, which encompasses Galam's proposal, where opinion leaders are included as special agents. Then we study its specific properties which significantly recast and extend some conclusions drawn for the models given by Galam and Ellero, Fasano, and Sorato [Physica A0378-437110.1016/j.physa.2009.06.002 388, 3901 (2009)]. Finally, we provide theoretical and numerical results concerning the dynamics of our model, showing that a small percentage of opinion leaders may both accelerate and/or even reverse the overall consensus among all the agents.

  10. Classification of Word Levels with Usage Frequency, Expert Opinions and Machine Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sohsah, Gihad N.; Ünal, Muhammed Esad; Güzey, Onur

    2015-01-01

    Educational applications for language teaching can utilize the language levels of words to target proficiency levels of students. This paper and the accompanying data provide a methodology for making educational standard-aligned language-level predictions for all English words. The methodology involves expert opinions on language levels and…

  11. [Digitalisation of palmar pattern configurations. Practicability in the anthropologic-heredobiological expert opinion (author's transl)].

    PubMed

    Berghaus, G; Baitsch, H

    1980-01-01

    A half-automatic technique for extracting characteristics from handprints is presented. Characteristics of the mainline system are defined from the co-ordinate aggregates. The practicability of the method in the anthropologic-heredobiological expert opinion is discussed. PMID:7456765

  12. 15 CFR 15.16 - Legal proceedings between private litigants: Expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Legal proceedings between private... Secretary of Commerce LEGAL PROCEEDINGS Testimony by Employees and the Production of Documents in Legal Proceedings § 15.16 Legal proceedings between private litigants: Expert or opinion testimony. In addition...

  13. 15 CFR 15.16 - Legal proceedings between private litigants: Expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Legal proceedings between private... Secretary of Commerce LEGAL PROCEEDINGS Testimony by Employees and the Production of Documents in Legal Proceedings § 15.16 Legal proceedings between private litigants: Expert or opinion testimony. In addition...

  14. 15 CFR 15.16 - Legal proceedings between private litigants: Expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Legal proceedings between private... Secretary of Commerce LEGAL PROCEEDINGS Testimony by Employees and the Production of Documents in Legal Proceedings § 15.16 Legal proceedings between private litigants: Expert or opinion testimony. In addition...

  15. 15 CFR 15.16 - Legal proceedings between private litigants: Expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Legal proceedings between private litigants: Expert or opinion testimony. 15.16 Section 15.16 Commerce and Foreign Trade Office of the Secretary of Commerce LEGAL PROCEEDINGS Testimony by Employees and the Production of Documents in Legal Proceedings § 15.16 Legal proceedings...

  16. 15 CFR 15.16 - Legal proceedings between private litigants: Expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Legal proceedings between private... Secretary of Commerce LEGAL PROCEEDINGS Testimony by Employees and the Production of Documents in Legal Proceedings § 15.16 Legal proceedings between private litigants: Expert or opinion testimony. In addition...

  17. Climate Change to the Year 2000: A Survey of Expert Opinion.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Institute for the Future, Menlo Park, CA.

    This survey of expert opinion was conducted by the National Defense University, Washington, D.C. to quantify the likelihood of significant changes in climate and their practical consequences. The major objectives of the study are embodied in four tasks. This publication presents the results of the first task only: the definition and estimation of…

  18. [Medical expert opinion: performance, the appearance in court in cases of medical malpractice].

    PubMed

    García-Garduza, Ismael

    2011-01-01

    In several lawsuits, including one for medical malpractice, there is a phase with the participation of experts who analyze the evidence in order to issue an opinion which is explained at the hearing at court, thus resulting in the medical expert act that all physicians should know. This article discusses legal, medical and ethical characteristics in an expert performance in medical malpractice cases. The expert having access to the original evidence is in a powerful situation and has an advantageous position in a trial for medical malpractice. His opinion has legal effects, therefore, the issue of partial, erroneous or badly founded points of view, and a unprepared, unethical and malicious performance at the hearing, produces adverse effects in the trial transcending to consequences to the ones involved. To apply correctly the principles of ethics and knowledge, the medical expert will make good use of the information obtained during his research both in his opinion and during his appearance in court. Analyzing and using it properly, he will make his point of view meet its goal of establishing the facts in the investigation of an alleged medical malpractice and the authorities or officials will have strong evidence to enable them to determine their decision, thus contributing to the development of the society and the proper use of the law within it.

  19. Survey of Expert Opinion on Intelligence: Causes of International Differences in Cognitive Ability Tests

    PubMed Central

    Rindermann, Heiner; Becker, David; Coyle, Thomas R.

    2016-01-01

    Following Snyderman and Rothman (1987, 1988), we surveyed expert opinions on the current state of intelligence research. This report examines expert opinions on causes of international differences in student assessment and psychometric IQ test results. Experts were surveyed about the importance of culture, genes, education (quantity and quality), wealth, health, geography, climate, politics, modernization, sampling error, test knowledge, discrimination, test bias, and migration. The importance of these factors was evaluated for diverse countries, regions, and groups including Finland, East Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Europe, the Arabian-Muslim world, Latin America, Israel, Jews in the West, Roma (gypsies), and Muslim immigrants. Education was rated by N = 71 experts as the most important cause of international ability differences. Genes were rated as the second most relevant factor but also had the highest variability in ratings. Culture, health, wealth, modernization, and politics were the next most important factors, whereas other factors such as geography, climate, test bias, and sampling error were less important. The paper concludes with a discussion of limitations of the survey (e.g., response rates and validity of expert opinions). PMID:27047425

  20. Transforming Agricultural Mechanics Curriculum through Expert Opinion to Model Technologies in Food, Environmental, and Natural Resource Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shinn, Glen C.

    A study was conducted to develop a consensus document that would provide an external perspective of the curriculum in agricultural education that includes agricultural mechanics as a course of study. Data were collected in four phases: solicitation of expert opinion from 53 experts in the field (34 respondents); rating of the opinions; development…

  1. Using expert opinion surveys to rank threats to endangered species: a case study with sea turtles.

    PubMed

    Donlan, C Josh; Wingfield, Dana K; Crowder, Larry B; Wilcox, Chris

    2010-12-01

    Little is known about how specific anthropogenic hazards affect the biology of organisms. Quantifying the effect of regional hazards is particularly challenging for species such as sea turtles because they are migratory, difficult to study, long lived, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation, a technique used to synthesize opinions of experts while assessing uncertainty around those views, has been in use for several decades in the social science and risk assessment sectors. We conducted an internet-based survey to quantify expert opinion on the relative magnitude of anthropogenic hazards to sea turtle populations at the regional level. Fisheries bycatch and coastal development were most often ranked as the top hazards to sea turtle species in a geographic region. Nest predation and direct take followed as the second and third greatest threats, respectively. Survey results suggest most experts believe sea turtles are threatened by multiple factors, including substantial at-sea threats such as fisheries bycatch. Resources invested by the sea turtle community, however, appear biased toward terrestrial-based impacts. Results from the survey are useful for conservation planning because they provide estimates of relative impacts of hazards on sea turtles and a measure of consensus on the magnitude of those impacts among researchers and practitioners. Our survey results also revealed patterns of expert bias, which we controlled for in our analysis. Respondents with no experience with respect to a sea turtle species tended to rank hazards affecting that sea turtle species higher than respondents with experience. A more-striking pattern was with hazard-based expertise: the more experience a respondent had with a specific hazard, the higher the respondent scored the impact of that hazard on sea turtle populations. Bias-controlled expert opinion surveys focused on threatened species and their hazards can help guide and expedite species recovery plans.

  2. Can journalistic "false balance" distort public perception of consensus in expert opinion?

    PubMed

    Koehler, Derek J

    2016-03-01

    Media critics have expressed concern that journalistic "false balance" can distort the public's perceptions of what ought to be noncontroversial subjects (e.g., climate change). I report several experiments testing the influence of presenting conflicting comments from 2 experts who disagree on an issue (balance condition) in addition to a complete count of the number of experts on a panel who favor either side. Compared with a control condition, who received only the complete count, participants in the balance condition gave ratings of the perceived agreement among the experts that did not discriminate as clearly between issues with and without strong expert consensus. Participants in the balance condition also perceived less agreement among the experts in general, and were less likely to think that there was enough agreement among experts on the high-consensus issues to guide government policy. Evidently, "false balance" can distort perceptions of expert opinion even when participants would seem to have all the information needed to correct for its influence.

  3. Remarks on the assessment, representation, aggregation and utilization of expert opinion

    SciTech Connect

    Fine, T.L.

    1980-04-01

    This report considers the relevance of recent ideas in the foundations of probability to the rational use of expert opinion in the design of a nuclear waste repository, and the assessment of its performance. The main probability concepts introduce are those of modal (probably A), comparative (A is at least as probable as B) and interval-valued (the lower probability of A is P(A) and the upper probability of A is P(anti A)) probabilities. We then outline an approach first using comparative probability to model the resuls of binary elicitation of an expert's opinions concerning repository uncertainties and then employing interval-valued probability to represent comparative probability in a computationally convenient form. We further consider the issue of aggregating or amalgamating the responses of several experts, and we emphasize the need to preserve some measure of the disagreements among the experts. The resulting aggregated interval-valued representation of the responses concerning the uncertainties surrounding the performance of a nuclear waste repository design can then be used to numerically assess this performance in a manner parallel to that of utility theory. Utility theory is the basis for statistical decision theory. Our recommendations can only be tentative, and research is recommended to gain some working experience with the results of the proposed decision-making process in the repostory design context.

  4. The influence of expert opinions on the selection of wastewater treatment alternatives: a group decision-making approach.

    PubMed

    Kalbar, Pradip P; Karmakar, Subhankar; Asolekar, Shyam R

    2013-10-15

    The application of multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) to real life decision problems suggests that avoiding the loss of information through scenario-based approaches and including expert opinions in the decision-making process are two major challenges that require more research efforts. Recently, a wastewater treatment technology selection effort has been made with a 'scenario-based' method of MADM. This paper focuses on a novel approach to incorporate expert opinions into the scenario-based decision-making process, as expert opinions play a major role in the selection of treatment technologies. The sets of criteria and the indicators that are used consist of both qualitative and quantitative criteria. The group decision-making (GDM) approach that is implemented for aggregating expert opinions is based on an analytical hierarchy process (AHP), which is the most widely used MADM method. The pairwise comparison matrices (PCMs) for qualitative criteria are formed based on expert opinions, whereas, a novel approach is proposed for generating PCMs for quantitative criteria. It has been determined that the experts largely prefer natural treatment systems because they are more sustainable in any scenario. However, PCMs based on expert opinions suggest that advanced technologies such as the sequencing batch reactor (SBR) can also be appropriate for a given decision scenario. The proposed GDM approach is a rationalized process that will be more appropriate in realistic scenarios where multiple stakeholders with local and regional societal priorities are involved in the selection of treatment technology.

  5. The influence of expert opinions on the selection of wastewater treatment alternatives: a group decision-making approach.

    PubMed

    Kalbar, Pradip P; Karmakar, Subhankar; Asolekar, Shyam R

    2013-10-15

    The application of multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) to real life decision problems suggests that avoiding the loss of information through scenario-based approaches and including expert opinions in the decision-making process are two major challenges that require more research efforts. Recently, a wastewater treatment technology selection effort has been made with a 'scenario-based' method of MADM. This paper focuses on a novel approach to incorporate expert opinions into the scenario-based decision-making process, as expert opinions play a major role in the selection of treatment technologies. The sets of criteria and the indicators that are used consist of both qualitative and quantitative criteria. The group decision-making (GDM) approach that is implemented for aggregating expert opinions is based on an analytical hierarchy process (AHP), which is the most widely used MADM method. The pairwise comparison matrices (PCMs) for qualitative criteria are formed based on expert opinions, whereas, a novel approach is proposed for generating PCMs for quantitative criteria. It has been determined that the experts largely prefer natural treatment systems because they are more sustainable in any scenario. However, PCMs based on expert opinions suggest that advanced technologies such as the sequencing batch reactor (SBR) can also be appropriate for a given decision scenario. The proposed GDM approach is a rationalized process that will be more appropriate in realistic scenarios where multiple stakeholders with local and regional societal priorities are involved in the selection of treatment technology. PMID:23872214

  6. Expert Opinions on Improving Femicide Data Collection across Europe: A Concept Mapping Study.

    PubMed

    Vives-Cases, Carmen; Goicolea, Isabel; Hernández, Alison; Sanz-Barbero, Belen; Gill, Aisha K; Baldry, Anna Costanza; Schröttle, Monika; Stöckl, Heidi; Stoeckl, Heidi

    2016-01-01

    Femicide, defined as the killings of females by males because they are females, is becoming recognized worldwide as an important ongoing manifestation of gender inequality. Despite its high prevalence or widespread prevalence, only a few countries have specific registries about this issue. This study aims to assemble expert opinion regarding the strategies which might feasibly be employed to promote, develop and implement an integrated and differentiated femicide data collection system in Europe at both the national and international levels. Concept mapping methodology was followed, involving 28 experts from 16 countries in generating strategies, sorting and rating them with respect to relevance and feasibility. The experts involved were all members of the EU-Cost-Action on femicide, which is a scientific network of experts on femicide and violence against women across Europe. As a result, a conceptual map emerged, consisting of 69 strategies organized in 10 clusters, which fit into two domains: "Political action" and "Technical steps". There was consensus among participants regarding the high relevance of strategies to institutionalize national databases and raise public awareness through different stakeholders, while strategies to promote media involvement were identified as the most feasible. Differences in perceived priorities according to the level of human development index of the experts' countries were also observed. PMID:26859885

  7. Expert Opinions on Improving Femicide Data Collection across Europe: A Concept Mapping Study.

    PubMed

    Vives-Cases, Carmen; Goicolea, Isabel; Hernández, Alison; Sanz-Barbero, Belen; Gill, Aisha K; Baldry, Anna Costanza; Schröttle, Monika; Stöckl, Heidi; Stoeckl, Heidi

    2016-01-01

    Femicide, defined as the killings of females by males because they are females, is becoming recognized worldwide as an important ongoing manifestation of gender inequality. Despite its high prevalence or widespread prevalence, only a few countries have specific registries about this issue. This study aims to assemble expert opinion regarding the strategies which might feasibly be employed to promote, develop and implement an integrated and differentiated femicide data collection system in Europe at both the national and international levels. Concept mapping methodology was followed, involving 28 experts from 16 countries in generating strategies, sorting and rating them with respect to relevance and feasibility. The experts involved were all members of the EU-Cost-Action on femicide, which is a scientific network of experts on femicide and violence against women across Europe. As a result, a conceptual map emerged, consisting of 69 strategies organized in 10 clusters, which fit into two domains: "Political action" and "Technical steps". There was consensus among participants regarding the high relevance of strategies to institutionalize national databases and raise public awareness through different stakeholders, while strategies to promote media involvement were identified as the most feasible. Differences in perceived priorities according to the level of human development index of the experts' countries were also observed.

  8. Assessing the congruence between physician behavior and expert opinion in smoking cessation counseling.

    PubMed

    Mullen, P D; Ito, J R; Carbonari, J P; DiClemente, C C

    1991-01-01

    This study examines the degree of transfer of smoking cessation innovation from research to health care settings by comparing frequency-of-practice ratings by a national sample of family practice physicians (n = 903, response rate = 70%) and importance ratings by smoking cessation and prevention experts (n = 58, response rate = 84%) for 14 counseling techniques. The physician survey elicited a profile that combines traditional and behavioral techniques--discussing smoking with patients, encouraging goal setting, suggesting specific steps for quitting, and presenting pamphlets. They refer to others infrequently and rarely report planning for follow-up about smoking. The experts rated these selected techniques as moderately to highly important. They favored a behavioral approach coupled with active follow-up. The major differences between physician and expert rankings were that the experts placed higher priority on planned follow-up and a lower priority on pamphlets. The uneven quality of counseling reported by physicians suggests that weighting their responses according to expert opinion would provide a more sensitive profile. Scaled weighting produced scores that may help researchers define a composite quality-quantity measure of activity. PMID:1776538

  9. Expert opinion on landslide susceptibility elicted by probabilistic inversion from scenario rankings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Katy; Dashwood, Claire; Lark, Murray

    2016-04-01

    For many natural hazards the opinion of experts, with experience in assessing susceptibility under different circumstances, is a valuable source of information on which to base risk assessments. This is particularly important where incomplete process understanding, and limited data, limit the scope to predict susceptibility by mechanistic or statistical modelling. The expert has a tacit model of a system, based on their understanding of processes and their field experience. This model may vary in quality, depending on the experience of the expert. There is considerable interest in how one may elicit expert understanding by a process which is transparent and robust, to provide a basis for decision support. One approach is to provide experts with a set of scenarios, and then to ask them to rank small overlapping subsets of these with respect to susceptibility. Methods of probabilistic inversion have been used to compute susceptibility scores for each scenario, implicit in the expert ranking. It is also possible to model these scores as functions of measurable properties of the scenarios. This approach has been used to assess susceptibility of animal populations to invasive diseases, to assess risk to vulnerable marine environments and to assess the risk in hypothetical novel technologies for food production. We will present the results of a study in which a group of geologists with varying degrees of expertise in assessing landslide hazards were asked to rank sets of hypothetical simplified scenarios with respect to land slide susceptibility. We examine the consistency of their rankings and the importance of different properties of the scenarios in the tacit susceptibility model that their rankings implied. Our results suggest that this is a promising approach to the problem of how experts can communicate their tacit model of uncertain systems to those who want to make use of their expertise.

  10. Plus Disease in Retinopathy of Prematurity: Development of Composite Images by Quantification of Expert Opinion

    PubMed Central

    Chiang, Michael F.; Gelman, Rony; Williams, Steven L.; Lee, Joo-Yeon; Casper, Daniel S.; Martinez-Perez, M. Elena; Flynn, John T.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose To demonstrate a methodology for generating composite wide-angle images of plus disease in retinopathy of prematurity (ROP), using quantitative analysis of expert opinions. Methods Thirty-four wide-angle retinal images were independently interpreted by 22 ROP experts as “plus” or “not plus.” All images were processed by the computer-based Retinal Image multiScale Analysis (RISA) system to calculate two parameters: arterial integrated curvature (AIC) and venous diameter (VD). Using a reference standard defined by expert consensus, sensitivity and specificity curves were calculated by varying the diagnostic cutoffs for AIC and VD. From these curves, individual vessels from multiple images were identified with particular diagnostic cutoffs, and were combined into composite wide-angle images using graphics-editing software. Results The values associated with 75% underdiagnosis of true plus disease (i.e., 25% sensitivity cutoff) were AIC 0.061 and VD 4.272, the values associated with 50% underdiagnosis of true plus disease (i.e., a 50% sensitivity cutoff) were AIC 0.049 and VD 4.088, and the values associated with 25% underdiagnosis of true plus disease (i.e., 75% sensitivity cutoff) were AIC 0.042 and VD 3.795. Composite wide-angle images were generated by identifying and combining individual vessels with these characteristics. Conclusions Computer-based image analysis permits quantification of retinal vascular features, and a spectrum of abnormalities is seen in ROP. Selection of appropriate vessels from multiple images can produce composite plus disease images corresponding to expert opinions. This method may be useful for educational purposes, and for development of future disease definitions based on objective, quantitative principles. PMID:18408188

  11. Assessing the Effectiveness of Local Management of Coral Reefs Using Expert Opinion and Spatial Bayesian Modeling.

    PubMed

    Ban, Stephen S; Pressey, Robert L; Graham, Nicholas A J

    2015-01-01

    Multiple stressors are an increasing concern in the management and conservation of ecosystems, and have been identified as a key gap in research. Coral reefs are one example of an ecosystem where management of local stressors may be a way of mitigating or delaying the effects of climate change. Predicting how multiple stressors interact, particularly in a spatially explicit fashion, is a difficult challenge. Here we use a combination of an expert-elicited Bayesian network (BN) and spatial environmental data to examine how hypothetical scenarios of climate change and local management would result in different outcomes for coral reefs on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Parameterizing our BN using the mean responses from our experts resulted in predictions of limited efficacy of local management in combating the effects of climate change. However, there was considerable variability in expert responses and uncertainty was high. Many reefs within the central GBR appear to be at risk of further decline based on the pessimistic opinions of our expert pool. Further parameterization of the model as more data and knowledge become available could improve predictive power. Our approach serves as a starting point for subsequent work that can fine-tune parameters and explore uncertainties in predictions of responses to management. PMID:26284372

  12. Expert Opinions on Improving Femicide Data Collection across Europe: A Concept Mapping Study

    PubMed Central

    Vives-Cases, Carmen; Goicolea, Isabel; Hernández, Alison; Sanz-Barbero, Belen; Gill, Aisha K.; Baldry, Anna Costanza; Schröttle, Monika; Stoeckl, Heidi

    2016-01-01

    Femicide, defined as the killings of females by males because they are females, is becoming recognized worldwide as an important ongoing manifestation of gender inequality. Despite its high prevalence or widespread prevalence, only a few countries have specific registries about this issue. This study aims to assemble expert opinion regarding the strategies which might feasibly be employed to promote, develop and implement an integrated and differentiated femicide data collection system in Europe at both the national and international levels. Concept mapping methodology was followed, involving 28 experts from 16 countries in generating strategies, sorting and rating them with respect to relevance and feasibility. The experts involved were all members of the EU-Cost-Action on femicide, which is a scientific network of experts on femicide and violence against women across Europe. As a result, a conceptual map emerged, consisting of 69 strategies organized in 10 clusters, which fit into two domains: “Political action” and “Technical steps”. There was consensus among participants regarding the high relevance of strategies to institutionalize national databases and raise public awareness through different stakeholders, while strategies to promote media involvement were identified as the most feasible. Differences in perceived priorities according to the level of human development index of the experts’ countries were also observed. PMID:26859885

  13. Assessing the Effectiveness of Local Management of Coral Reefs Using Expert Opinion and Spatial Bayesian Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Ban, Stephen S.

    2015-01-01

    Multiple stressors are an increasing concern in the management and conservation of ecosystems, and have been identified as a key gap in research. Coral reefs are one example of an ecosystem where management of local stressors may be a way of mitigating or delaying the effects of climate change. Predicting how multiple stressors interact, particularly in a spatially explicit fashion, is a difficult challenge. Here we use a combination of an expert-elicited Bayesian network (BN) and spatial environmental data to examine how hypothetical scenarios of climate change and local management would result in different outcomes for coral reefs on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Parameterizing our BN using the mean responses from our experts resulted in predictions of limited efficacy of local management in combating the effects of climate change. However, there was considerable variability in expert responses and uncertainty was high. Many reefs within the central GBR appear to be at risk of further decline based on the pessimistic opinions of our expert pool. Further parameterization of the model as more data and knowledge become available could improve predictive power. Our approach serves as a starting point for subsequent work that can fine-tune parameters and explore uncertainties in predictions of responses to management. PMID:26284372

  14. Assessing the Effectiveness of Local Management of Coral Reefs Using Expert Opinion and Spatial Bayesian Modeling.

    PubMed

    Ban, Stephen S; Pressey, Robert L; Graham, Nicholas A J

    2015-01-01

    Multiple stressors are an increasing concern in the management and conservation of ecosystems, and have been identified as a key gap in research. Coral reefs are one example of an ecosystem where management of local stressors may be a way of mitigating or delaying the effects of climate change. Predicting how multiple stressors interact, particularly in a spatially explicit fashion, is a difficult challenge. Here we use a combination of an expert-elicited Bayesian network (BN) and spatial environmental data to examine how hypothetical scenarios of climate change and local management would result in different outcomes for coral reefs on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Parameterizing our BN using the mean responses from our experts resulted in predictions of limited efficacy of local management in combating the effects of climate change. However, there was considerable variability in expert responses and uncertainty was high. Many reefs within the central GBR appear to be at risk of further decline based on the pessimistic opinions of our expert pool. Further parameterization of the model as more data and knowledge become available could improve predictive power. Our approach serves as a starting point for subsequent work that can fine-tune parameters and explore uncertainties in predictions of responses to management.

  15. [Implementation of post-resuscitation care in adult cardiac arrest patients - Experts' opinion].

    PubMed

    Pellis, Tommaso; Ristagno, Giuseppe; Semeraro, Federico; Grieco, Niccolò; Fabbri, Andrea; Balzanelli, Mario; Berruto, Elisa; Scapigliati, Andrea; Sciretti, Massimiliano; Cerchiari, Erga

    2015-01-01

    Current evidence on post-resuscitation care suffers from important knowledge gaps on new treatments and prognostication, mainly because of the lack of large multicenter randomized trials. However, optimization of post-resuscitation care is crucial, and the establishment of a treatment easy to be accepted and implemented locally, based on currently available evidence, is advisable. The present article is a multisociety experts' opinion on post-cardiac arrest that aims (i) to provide schematic and clear suggestions on therapeutic interventions to be delivered following resuscitation from cardiac arrest, so as to implement local protocols with a standardized post-resuscitation care; (ii) to suggest post-resuscitation therapeutic interventions that may result in improved survival with good neurological recovery, intended as a Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) score of 1-2; and finally (iii) to propose a pragmatic and schematic approach to post-resuscitation care for rapid initiation of intensive treatments (i.e. temperature management). The suggestions reported in this document are intended for adult patients resuscitated from both out-of-hospital and in-hospital cardiac arrest. They should be considered solely as an experts' opinion aimed to improve post-cardiac arrest care and they do not represent an official national guideline.

  16. Expert opinion as 'validation' of risk assessment applied to calf welfare

    PubMed Central

    Bracke, Marc BM; Edwards, Sandra A; Engel, Bas; Buist, Willem G; Algers, Bo

    2008-01-01

    Background Recently, a Risk Assessment methodology was applied to animal welfare issues in a report of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) on intensively housed calves. Methods Because this is a new and potentially influential approach to derive conclusions on animal welfare issues, a so-called semantic-modelling type 'validation' study was conducted by asking expert scientists, who had been involved or quoted in the report, to give welfare scores for housing systems and for welfare hazards. Results Kendall's coefficient of concordance among experts (n = 24) was highly significant (P < 0.001), but low (0.29 and 0.18 for housing systems and hazards respectively). Overall correlations with EFSA scores were significant only for experts with a veterinary or mixed (veterinary and applied ethological) background. Significant differences in welfare scores were found between housing systems, between hazards, and between experts with different backgrounds. For example, veterinarians gave higher overall welfare scores for housing systems than ethologists did, probably reflecting a difference in their perception of animal welfare. Systems with the lowest scores were veal calves kept individually in so-called "baby boxes" (veal crates) or in small groups, and feedlots. A suckler herd on pasture was rated as the best for calf welfare. The main hazards were related to underfeeding, inadequate colostrum intake, poor stockperson education, insufficient space, inadequate roughage, iron deficiency, inadequate ventilation, poor floor conditions and no bedding. Points for improvement of the Risk Assessment applied to animal welfare include linking information, reporting uncertainty and transparency about underlying values. Conclusion The study provides novel information on expert opinion in relation to calf welfare and shows that Risk Assessment applied to animal welfare can benefit from a semantic modelling approach. PMID:18625048

  17. Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors.

    PubMed

    Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M T E

    2015-08-18

    There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample's prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these.

  18. International expert opinion on the management of infection caused by azole-resistant Aspergillus fumigatus.

    PubMed

    Verweij, Paul E; Ananda-Rajah, Michelle; Andes, David; Arendrup, Maiken C; Brüggemann, Roger J; Chowdhary, Anuradha; Cornely, Oliver A; Denning, David W; Groll, Andreas H; Izumikawa, Koichi; Kullberg, Bart Jan; Lagrou, Katrien; Maertens, Johan; Meis, Jacques F; Newton, Pippa; Page, Iain; Seyedmousavi, Seyedmojtaba; Sheppard, Donald C; Viscoli, Claudio; Warris, Adilia; Donnelly, J Peter

    2015-01-01

    An international expert panel was convened to deliberate the management of azole-resistant aspergillosis. In culture-positive cases, in vitro susceptibility testing should always be performed if antifungal therapy is intended. Different patterns of resistance are seen, with multi-azole and pan-azole resistance more common than resistance to a single triazole. In confirmed invasive pulmonary aspergillosis due to an azole-resistant Aspergillus, the experts recommended a switch from voriconazole to liposomal amphotericin B (L-AmB; Ambisome(®)). In regions with environmental resistance rates of ≥10%, a voriconazole-echinocandin combination or L-AmB were favoured as initial therapy. All experts recommended L-AmB as core therapy for central nervous system aspergillosis suspected to be due to an azole-resistant Aspergillus, and considered the addition of a second agent with the majority favouring flucytosine. Intravenous therapy with either micafungin or L-AmB given as either intermittent or continuous therapy was recommended for chronic pulmonary aspergillosis due to a pan-azole-resistant Aspergillus. Local and national surveillance with identification of clinical and environmental resistance patterns, rapid diagnostics, better quality clinical outcome data, and a greater understanding of the factors driving or minimising environmental resistance are areas where research is urgently needed, as well as the development of new oral agents outside the azole drug class. PMID:26282594

  19. Experts’ opinions on terminology for complementary and integrative medicine – a qualitative study with leading experts

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Integrative medicine (IM) is currently the most commonly used term to describe the integration of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) into conventional medicine. In the definitions of IM the most important feature is the focus on evidence as crucial factor for therapeutic decision-making. However, there are discussions on the term “integrative medicine” with the most notable critique from within CAM that it describes the integration of complementary methods into conventional institutions and into a “conventional framework of thinking”. The aim of this qualitative study was to understand the thoughts of leading experts on IM and on the scientific debate in the field as well as their personal opinions about terminology in general. Methods We have conducted semi-standardized interviews with ten leading experts in the field of CAM and integrative medicine in the USA, England, and Germany, who have had leading positions at medical schools or the NIH in 2010 and 2011. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and analyzed using content analysis with the qualitative analysis software maxqda. Results Overall the current terminology was seen as a problem, although most experts agreed that the term “integrative medicine” (IM) described well what they do or they think is useful for medical care. The terminology debate was discussed from four perspectives: 1) from the perspective of medical practice, 2) from the perspective of research, 3) from the perspective of public relations, and 4) from the perspective of health care delivery. These perspectives may be used to evaluate the appropriateness of different terms in use in the field. When interviewees discussed the terminology question, they also discussed the type of health care system they envisioned. Such reflections led the interviewees to caution about too narrow a focus on the terminology question. The question of naming was one about influencing and changing medicine. Conclusion The

  20. Biology Teacher and Expert Opinions about Computer Assisted Biology Instruction Materials: A Software Entitled Nucleic Acids and Protein Synthesis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hasenekoglu, Ismet; Timucin, Melih

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study is to collect and evaluate opinions of CAI experts and biology teachers about a high school level Computer Assisted Biology Instruction Material presenting computer-made modelling and simulations. It is a case study. A material covering "Nucleic Acids and Protein Synthesis" topic was developed as the "case". The goal of the…

  1. [Method and empirical results from expert opinions on 90 offenders concerning the question of complete intoxication].

    PubMed

    Mitterauer, Bernhard; Griebnitz, Ernst; Rothuber, Helfried

    2010-01-01

    Based on a 3-year sample of expert opinions concerning the question of complete intoxication (n = 90), methodology and results are presented. Since more than half of the offenders (n = 53) claim amnesia regarding the circumstances of the offence, this subjective amnesia is considered methodologically. If the file contains observations on the offender's behaviour, it is generally possible to assess if the offender was still able to self-reflect and act in a purposeful way. If so, complete intoxication must be negated independent of the objective degree of alcohol or drug intoxication, and the subjective amnesia claimed by the offender is implausible. In the assessment procedure of complete intoxication a decision tree is used. 37/90 offenders showed no significant memory impairment as well as no psychiatric diagnosis, thus excluding both criminal irresponsibility and complete intoxication. The assessment of subjective amnesia and total intoxication was based on the following information from the decision tree: in 51 (47 males, 4 females) of the 53 offenders claiming subjective amnesia the file contained behavioural observations at the time of the offence. Only in two cases, a considerable lack of information prevented a clear decision regarding the question of complete intoxication. Despite the fact that only in about 50% of the offenders claiming subjective amnesia evidence of alcohol or drug influence was demonstrated according to the files, the question of complete intoxication could be successfully evaluated in all but two cases according to the decision tree.

  2. Expert opinions of the first italian consensus conference on the management of malignant pleural mesothelioma.

    PubMed

    Pinto, Carmine; Ardizzoni, Andrea; Betta, Pier Giacomo; Facciolo, Francesco; Tassi, Gianfranco; Tonoli, Sandro; Zompatori, Maurizio; Alessandrini, Gabriele; Magrini, Stefano Maria; Tiseo, Marcello; Mutri, Vita

    2011-02-01

    Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a very important public health issue. A large amount of data indicates a relationship between mesothelioma and asbestos exposure. The incidence has both considerably and constantly increased over the past 2 decades in the industrialized countries and is expected to peak in 2010-2020. In Italy, a standardized-rate incidence in 2002 among men was 2.98 per 100,000 and 0.98 per 100,000 among women, with wide differences from one region to another. Stage diagnosis and definition may be difficult. Management of patients with MPM remains complex, so an optimal treatment strategy has not yet been clearly defined. The First Italian Consensus Conference on Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma was held Bologna (Italy) in May 20, 2008. The Consensus Conference was given the patronage of the Italian scientific societies AIOM, AIRO, AIPO, SIC, SICO, SICT, SIAPEC-IAP, AIOT, GOAM, and GIME. This Consensus did not answer all of the unresolved questions in MPM management, but the Expert Opinions have nonetheless provided recommendations, presented in this report, on MPM management for clinicians and patients. PMID:20414089

  3. Studies of Opinion Stability for Small Dynamic Networks with Opportunistic Agents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    There are numerous examples of societies with extremely stable mix of contrasting opinions. We argue that this stability is a result of an interplay between society network topology adjustment and opinion changing processes. To support this position we present a computer model of opinion formation based on some novel assumptions, designed to bring the model closer to social reality. In our model, the agents, in addition to changing their opinions due to influence of the rest of society and external propaganda, have the ability to modify their social network, forming links with agents sharing the same opinions and cutting the links with those they disagree with. To improve the model further we divide the agents into "fanatics" and "opportunists," depending on how easy it is to change their opinions. The simulations show significant differences compared to traditional models, where network links are static. In particular, for the dynamical model where inter-agent links are adjustable, the final network structure and opinion distribution is shown to resemble real world observations, such as social structures and persistence of minority groups even when most of the society is against them and the propaganda is strong.

  4. Expert Opinion on Laparoscopic Surgery for Colorectal Cancer Parallels Evidence from a Cumulative Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

    PubMed Central

    Martel, Guillaume; Crawford, Alyson; Barkun, Jeffrey S.; Boushey, Robin P.; Ramsay, Craig R.; Fergusson, Dean A.

    2012-01-01

    Background This study sought to synthesize survival outcomes from trials of laparoscopic and open colorectal cancer surgery, and to determine whether expert acceptance of this technology in the literature has parallel cumulative survival evidence. Study Design A systematic review of randomized trials was conducted. The primary outcome was survival, and meta-analysis of time-to-event data was conducted. Expert opinion in the literature (published reviews, guidelines, and textbook chapters) on the acceptability of laparoscopic colorectal cancer was graded using a 7-point scale. Pooled survival data were correlated in time with accumulating expert opinion scores. Results A total of 5,800 citations were screened. Of these, 39 publications pertaining to 23 individual trials were retained. As well, 414 reviews were included (28 guidelines, 30 textbook chapters, 20 systematic reviews, 336 narrative reviews). In total, 5,782 patients were randomized to laparoscopic (n = 3,031) and open (n = 2,751) colorectal surgery. Survival data were presented in 16 publications. Laparoscopic surgery was not inferior to open surgery in terms of overall survival (HR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.80, 1.09). Expert opinion in the literature pertaining to the oncologic acceptability of laparoscopic surgery for colon cancer correlated most closely with the publication of large RCTs in 2002–2004. Although increasingly accepted since 2006, laparoscopic surgery for rectal cancer remained controversial. Conclusions Laparoscopic surgery for colon cancer is non-inferior to open surgery in terms of overall survival, and has been so since 2004. The majority expert opinion in the literature has considered these two techniques to be equivalent since 2002–2004. Laparoscopic surgery for rectal cancer has been increasingly accepted since 2006, but remains controversial. Knowledge translation efforts in this field appear to have paralleled the accumulation of clinical trial evidence. PMID:22532846

  5. Expert Opinion on the Perceived Effectiveness and Importance of On-Farm Biosecurity Measures for Cattle and Swine Farms in Switzerland

    PubMed Central

    Kuster, Karin; Cousin, Marie-Eve; Jemmi, Thomas; Schüpbach-Regula, Gertraud; Magouras, Ioannis

    2015-01-01

    Biosecurity is crucial for safeguarding livestock from infectious diseases. Despite the plethora of biosecurity recommendations, published scientific evidence on the effectiveness of individual biosecurity measures is limited. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of Swiss experts about the effectiveness and importance of individual on-farm biosecurity measures for cattle and swine farms (31 and 30 measures, respectively). Using a modified Delphi method, 16 Swiss livestock disease specialists (8 for each species) were interviewed. The experts were asked to rank biosecurity measures that were written on cards, by allocating a score from 0 (lowest) to 5 (highest). Experts ranked biosecurity measures based on their importance related to Swiss legislation, feasibility, as well as the effort required for implementation and the benefit of each biosecurity measure. The experts also ranked biosecurity measures based on their effectiveness in preventing an infectious agent from entering and spreading on a farm, solely based on transmission characteristics of specific pathogens. The pathogens considered by cattle experts were those causing Bluetongue (BT), Bovine Viral Diarrhea (BVD), Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis (IBR). Swine experts expressed their opinion on the pathogens causing African Swine Fever (ASF), Enzootic Pneumonia (EP), Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), as well as FMD. For cattle farms, biosecurity measures that improve disease awareness of farmers were ranked as both most important and most effective. For swine farms, the most important and effective measures identified were those related to animal movements. Among all single measures evaluated, education of farmers was perceived by the experts to be the most important and effective for protecting both Swiss cattle and swine farms from disease. The findings of this study provide an important basis for recommendation to farmers and

  6. Expert Opinion on the Perceived Effectiveness and Importance of On-Farm Biosecurity Measures for Cattle and Swine Farms in Switzerland.

    PubMed

    Kuster, Karin; Cousin, Marie-Eve; Jemmi, Thomas; Schüpbach-Regula, Gertraud; Magouras, Ioannis

    2015-01-01

    Biosecurity is crucial for safeguarding livestock from infectious diseases. Despite the plethora of biosecurity recommendations, published scientific evidence on the effectiveness of individual biosecurity measures is limited. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of Swiss experts about the effectiveness and importance of individual on-farm biosecurity measures for cattle and swine farms (31 and 30 measures, respectively). Using a modified Delphi method, 16 Swiss livestock disease specialists (8 for each species) were interviewed. The experts were asked to rank biosecurity measures that were written on cards, by allocating a score from 0 (lowest) to 5 (highest). Experts ranked biosecurity measures based on their importance related to Swiss legislation, feasibility, as well as the effort required for implementation and the benefit of each biosecurity measure. The experts also ranked biosecurity measures based on their effectiveness in preventing an infectious agent from entering and spreading on a farm, solely based on transmission characteristics of specific pathogens. The pathogens considered by cattle experts were those causing Bluetongue (BT), Bovine Viral Diarrhea (BVD), Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis (IBR). Swine experts expressed their opinion on the pathogens causing African Swine Fever (ASF), Enzootic Pneumonia (EP), Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), as well as FMD. For cattle farms, biosecurity measures that improve disease awareness of farmers were ranked as both most important and most effective. For swine farms, the most important and effective measures identified were those related to animal movements. Among all single measures evaluated, education of farmers was perceived by the experts to be the most important and effective for protecting both Swiss cattle and swine farms from disease. The findings of this study provide an important basis for recommendation to farmers and

  7. Syndrome Differentiation of Diabetes by the Traditional Chinese Medicine according to Evidence-Based Medicine and Expert Consensus Opinion

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Jing; Chen, Hongdong; Song, Jun; Wang, Jia; Zhao, Linhua; Tong, Xiaolin

    2014-01-01

    In Chinese medicine, diabetes belongs to the category of “Xiaoke disease (disease with symptoms of frequent drinking and urination)”; in the traditional sense, its pathogenesis is “Yin deficiency and dryness-heat.” However, over time, changes in the social environment and lifestyle have also changed the use of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) in diabetes. In this study, we performed diabetes syndrome differentiation using TCM according to evidence-based medicine and expert consensus opinion. PMID:25132859

  8. Intertidal zone management in the Western Indian Ocean: assessing current status and future possibilities using expert opinions.

    PubMed

    Nordlund, Lina Mtwana; de la Torre-Castro, Maricela; Erlandsson, Johan; Conand, Chantal; Muthiga, Nyawira; Jiddawi, Narriman; Gullström, Martin

    2014-12-01

    This expert opinion study examined the current status of the intertidal zone in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) and ranked and discussed future management approaches. Information was gathered from scientists, practitioners, and managers active in the WIO region through a questionnaire and a workshop. The experts stated that the productive intertidal environment is highly valuable for reasons such as recreation, erosion protection, and provision of edible invertebrates and fish. Several anthropogenic pressures were identified, including pollution, harbor activities, overexploitation, and climate change. The experts considered the WIO intertidal zone as generally understudied, undermanaged, and with poor or no monitoring. The most important management strategies according to the expert opinions are to develop and involve local people in integrated coastal zone management (ICZM), to increase knowledge on species-environment relationships, and to develop awareness campaigns and education programs. To improve coastal environmental management and conservation, we argue that the intertidal zone should be treated as one organizational management unit within the larger framework of ICZM.

  9. Issues and controversies of hepatocellular carcinoma-targeted therapy clinical trials in Asia: experts' opinion.

    PubMed

    Chen, Pei-Jer; Furuse, Junji; Han, Kwang-Hyub; Hsu, Chiun; Lim, Ho-Yeong; Moon, Hanlim; Qin, Shukui; Ye, Sheng-Long; Yeoh, Ee-Min; Yeo, Winnie

    2010-11-01

    Asia has a disproportionate share of the world's burden of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the highly regarded clinical practice guidelines and recommendations for the design and conduct of clinical trials for HCC largely reflect Western practice. In order to design mutually beneficial international clinical trials of promising targeted therapies, it is imperative to understand how the aetiology, staging and treatment of HCC differ between Asian and Western countries. Our group, comprising experts in oncology and hepatology from countries that constitute the Eastern Asian region, convened to compare and contrast our current practices, evaluate potential compliance with the clinical trial recommendations, and offer suggestions for modifications that would enhance international collaboration. Here, we describe the results of our discussions, including recommendations for appropriate patient stratification based on potentially important differences in HCC aetiology, identification of practices that may confound interpretation of clinical trial outcomes (traditional Chinese medicine; antivirals that target hepatitis B virus; heterogeneous embolization procedures), suggestions for utilizing a common staging system in study protocols, recognition that sorafenib usage is limited by financial constraints and potentially increased toxicity in Asian patients, and expansion of patient populations that should be eligible for initial clinical trials with new agents.

  10. Is expert opinion reliable when estimating transition probabilities? The case of HCV-related cirrhosis in Egypt

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Data on HCV-related cirrhosis progression are scarce in developing countries in general, and in Egypt in particular. The objective of this study was to estimate the probability of death and transition between different health stages of HCV (compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma) for an Egyptian population of patients with HCV-related cirrhosis. Methods We used the “elicitation of expert opinions” method to obtain collective knowledge from a panel of 23 Egyptian experts (among whom 17 were hepatologists or gastroenterologists and 2 were infectiologists). The questionnaire was based on virtual medical cases and asked the experts to assess probability of death or probability of various cirrhosis complications. The design was a Delphi study: we attempted to obtain a consensus between experts via a series of questionnaires interspersed with group response feedback. Results We found substantial disparity between experts’ answers, and no consensus was reached at the end of the process. Moreover, we obtained high death probability and high risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. The annual transition probability to death was estimated at between 10.1% and 61.5% and the annual probability of occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma was estimated at between 16.8% and 58.9% (depending on age, gender, time spent in cirrhosis and cirrhosis severity). Conclusions Our results show that eliciting expert opinions is not suited for determining the natural history of diseases due to practitioners’ difficulties in evaluating quantities. Cognitive bias occurring during this type of study might explain our results. PMID:24635942

  11. The Peace Mediator effect: Heterogeneous agents can foster consensus in continuous opinion models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vilone, Daniele; Carletti, Timoteo; Bagnoli, Franco; Guazzini, Andrea

    2016-11-01

    Statistical mechanics has proven to be able to capture the fundamental rules underlying phenomena of social aggregation and opinion dynamics, well studied in disciplines like sociology and psychology. This approach is based on the underlying paradigm that the interesting dynamics of multi-agent systems emerge from the correct definition of few parameters governing the evolution of each individual. In this context, we propose a particular model of opinion dynamics based on the psychological construct named "cognitive dissonance". Our system is made of interacting individuals, the agents, each bearing only two dynamical variables (respectively "opinion" and "affinity") self-consistently adjusted during time evolution. We also define two special classes of interacting entities, both acting for a peace mediation process but via different course of action: "diplomats" and "auctoritates". The behavior of the system with and without peace mediators (PMs) is investigated and discussed with reference to corresponding psychological and social implications.

  12. Communicating Chemical Risks for Social Learning: Findings from an Expert Opinion Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lyytimaki, Jari; Assmuth, Timo; Hilden, Mikael

    2009-01-01

    Environmental and health risks caused by chemical substances have been intensively debated in various arenas of science and policy, and in news media. The impacts of risk debates on the public have been widely studied, while less attention has been paid to expert views. We present results from a cross-national survey charting expert views on the…

  13. Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

    1976-01-01

    A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

  14. A framework to start the debate on neonatal screening policies in the EU: an Expert Opinion Document.

    PubMed

    Cornel, Martina C; Rigter, Tessel; Weinreich, Stephanie S; Burgard, Peter; Hoffmann, Georg F; Lindner, Martin; Gerard Loeber, J; Rupp, Kathrin; Taruscio, Domenica; Vittozzi, Luciano

    2014-01-01

    The European Union (EU) Council Recommendation on rare diseases urged the member states to implement national and EU collaborative actions to improve the health care of rare disease patients. Following this recommendation, the European Commission launched a tender on newborn screening (NBS) to report on current practices of laboratory testing, form a network of experts and provide guidance on how to further implement NBS screening in a responsible way, the latter of which was provided in an Expert Opinion document. After consultation of experts from EU member states, (potential) candidate member states and European Free Trade Association countries, in a consensus meeting in June 2011, 70 expert opinions were finalized. They included the need to develop case definitions for all disorders screened for to facilitate assessment and international outcome studies. Decision whether a screening program should be performed can be based on screening criteria updated from the traditional Wilson and Jungner (1968) criteria, relating to disease, treatment, test and cost. The interest of the child should be central in the assessment of pros and cons. A European NBS body should assess evidence on (new) screening candidate disorders. For rare conditions, best level evidence should be used. The health system should ensure treatment to cases diagnosed by screening, controlled and revised by follow-up outcome studies. Screening methodology should aim to avoid unintended findings, such as mild forms and carrier status information, as much as possible. Activities to improve NBS in Europe, such as training and scientific evaluation, could benefit from collaboration at EU level and beyond.

  15. Development of the Paris definition of early Crohn's disease for disease-modification trials: results of an international expert opinion process.

    PubMed

    Peyrin-Biroulet, Laurent; Billioud, Vincent; D'Haens, Geert; Panaccione, Remo; Feagan, Brian; Panés, Julian; Danese, Silvio; Schreiber, Stefan; Ogata, Haruhiko; Hibi, Toshifumi; Higgins, Peter D R; Beaugerie, Laurent; Chowers, Yehuda; Louis, Edouard; Steinwurz, Flávio; Reinisch, Walter; Rutgeerts, Paul; Colombel, Jean-Frédéric; Travis, Simon; Sandborn, William J

    2012-12-01

    We report the findings and outputs of an international expert opinion process to develop a definition of early Crohn's disease (CD) that could be used in future disease-modification trials. Nineteen experts on inflammatory bowel diseases held an international expert opinion meeting to discuss and agree on a definition for early CD to be used in disease-modification trials. The process included literature searches for the relevant basic-science and clinical evidence. A published preliminary definition of early CD was used as the basis for development of a proposed definition that was discussed at the expert opinion meeting. The participants then derived a final definition, based on best current knowledge, that it is hoped will be of practical use in disease-modification trials in CD. PMID:23211844

  16. 22 CFR 172.9 - Prohibition on providing expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... PROCESS; PRODUCTION OR DISCLOSURE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION IN RESPONSE TO COURT ORDERS, SUBPOENAS, NOTICES... opinion testimony. (a) Except as provided in this section, and subject to 5 CFR 2635.805, Department... CFR 2635.805, in their discretion and with the concurrence of the Office of the Legal Adviser,...

  17. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

    SciTech Connect

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The Columbia River basalts underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett basalt flow interior. The Cohassett basalt flow is the prime candidate horizon for repository studies. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. The results indicate significant differences of expert opinion for cumulative probabilities of less than 10% and greater than 90%, but relatively close agreement in the middle ranges of values. The principal causes of the diversity of opinion are believed to be the lack of site-specific data and the absence of a single, widely accepted, conceptual or theoretical basis for analyzing these variables.

  18. Macro-Behaviour of Agents' Opinion under Influence of an External Field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Yun-Feng; Cai, Xu

    2007-08-01

    We propose a model to study the evolution of opinion under the influence of an external field on small world network. The macro-behaviour of agents' opinion and the relative change rate as time elapses are studied. The external field is found to play an important role in making the opinion s(t) balance or increase, and without the influence of the external field, the relative change rate γ(t) shows nonlinear increasing behaviour as time runs. What is more, this nonlinear increasing behaviour is independent of the initial condition, the strength of the external field and the time that we cancel the external field. The results may reflect some phenomena in our society, such as the function of the macro-control in China or the mass media in our society.

  19. Accelerating Struggling Readers' Progress: A Comparative Analysis of Expert Opinion and Current Research Recommendations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reutzel, D. Ray; Smith, John A.

    2004-01-01

    In this article, we review the findings of Rona Flippo's (1998) "Expert Study" within the comparative context of recently published reading research reports such as the National Reading Panel report (National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, 2000) and Preventing Reading Difficulties in Young Children (Snow, Burns, & Griffin, 1998).…

  20. Elicitation by design in ecology: using expert opinion to inform priors for Bayesian statistical models.

    PubMed

    Choy, Samantha Low; O'Leary, Rebecca; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian statistical modeling has several benefits within an ecological context. In particular, when observed data are limited in sample size or representativeness, then the Bayesian framework provides a mechanism to combine observed data with other "prior" information. Prior information may be obtained from earlier studies, or in their absence, from expert knowledge. This use of the Bayesian framework reflects the scientific "learning cycle," where prior or initial estimates are updated when new data become available. In this paper we outline a framework for statistical design of expert elicitation processes for quantifying such expert knowledge, in a form suitable for input as prior information into Bayesian models. We identify six key elements: determining the purpose and motivation for using prior information; specifying the relevant expert knowledge available; formulating the statistical model; designing effective and efficient numerical encoding; managing uncertainty; and designing a practical elicitation protocol. We demonstrate this framework applies to a variety of situations, with two examples from the ecological literature and three from our experience. Analysis of these examples reveals several recurring important issues affecting practical design of elicitation in ecological problems.

  1. [Role of experts in forensic medicine in opinioning for courts and insurance agencies].

    PubMed

    Berent, Jarosław

    2005-01-01

    Forensic medicine belongs to a group of medical specialties which are listed as basic specialties according to the Ministry of Health. As indicated already by the specialist program, the aim of such studies involves mastering of abilities which permit the medical doctor to provide competent opinions for courts and other organs in the administration of justice, consistent with the current medical knowledge, forensic experience and requirements of the law. Therefore, obtaining specialist qualifications in forensic medicine the doctor is expected to be prepared for forensic certification in penal, civil and insurance matters on the basis of a medical examination and/or court files. It should be explained that forensic medicine practiced in Poland and in some European countries represents a much broader specialty than forensic pathology practiced in the USA and some English-speaking countries. In the latter countries the specialty represents a part of broadly understood pathology. The situation of a forensic physician in organization of the execution of justice in the USA, his/ her competencies and range of activities are completely distinct to those characterizing a forensic physician in Poland. In its range accepted in Poland, forensic medicine has a broader scope. It deals not only with the narrow range of penal proceedings but also pertains the entire problems of certification for the courts and other organs which deal with implementation of justice, as well as for other institutions such as various insurance companies. One of the reasons for separation of forensic medicine from other specialties was the fact that appropriate forensic opinioning requires more than encompassing respective medical knowledge. Also needed is the ability to understand intentions and aims of justice execution and the capacity to formulate opinions in such a range and in such a way that it will be perceived by the addressee in an unbiased form.

  2. A DELPHI STUDY OF RISK FACTORS FOR ACHILLES TENDINOPATHY- OPINIONS OF WORLD TENDON EXPERTS

    PubMed Central

    Watson, Paul J.; Barry, Simon

    2016-01-01

    Background and Purpose Achilles tendinopathy can be a debilitating chronic condition for both active and inactive individuals. The identification of risk facors is important both in preventing but also treating tendinopathy, many factors have been proposed but there is a lack of primary epidemiological data. The purpose of this study was to develop a statement of expert consensus on risk factors for Achilles tendinopathy in active and sedentary patient populations to inform a primary epidemiological study. Study design Delphi study Methods and Measures An online Delphi study was completed inviting participation from world tendon experts. The consensus was developed using three rounds of the Delphi technique. The first round developed a complete list of potential risk factors, the second round refined this list but also separated the factors into two population groups – active/athletic and inactive/sedentary. The third round ranked this list in order of perceived importance. Results Forty-four experts were invited to participate, 16 participated in the first round (response rate 40%) and two dropped out in the second round (resulting in a response rate of 35%). A total of 27 intrinsic and eight extrinsic risk factors were identified during round one. During round two only 12 intrinsic and five extrinsic risk factors were identified as important in active/athletic tendinopathy while 14 intrinsic and three extrinsic factors were identified as important for inactive/sedentary tendinopathy. Conclusions Risk factors for Achilles tendinopathy were identified based on expert consensus, and these factors provide a basis for primary epidemiological studies. Plantarflexor strength was identified as the primary modifiable factor in the active/athletic group while systemic factors were identified as important in the inactive/sedentary group, many of the potential factors suggested for either group were non-modifiable. Non-modifiable factors include: previous tendinopathy

  3. Quantitative Agent Based Model of Opinion Dynamics: Polish Elections of 2015.

    PubMed

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    2016-01-01

    We present results of an abstract, agent based model of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) approach, applied to a strongly polarized society, corresponding to the Polish political scene between 2005 and 2015. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of two subcommunities of comparable size (supporting the corresponding opinions)-which corresponds to the bipartisan split found in Poland. Spurred by the recent breakdown of this political duopoly, which occurred in 2015, we present a model extension that describes both the long term coexistence of the two opposing opinions and a rapid, transitory change due to the appearance of a third party alternative. We provide quantitative comparison of the model with the results of polls and elections in Poland, testing the assumptions related to the modeled processes and the parameters used in the simulations. It is shown, that when the propaganda messages of the two incumbent parties differ in emotional tone, the political status quo may be unstable. The asymmetry of the emotions within the support bases of the two parties allows one of them to be 'invaded' by a newcomer third party very quickly, while the second remains immune to such invasion.

  4. Quantitative Agent Based Model of Opinion Dynamics: Polish Elections of 2015

    PubMed Central

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    2016-01-01

    We present results of an abstract, agent based model of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) approach, applied to a strongly polarized society, corresponding to the Polish political scene between 2005 and 2015. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of two subcommunities of comparable size (supporting the corresponding opinions)—which corresponds to the bipartisan split found in Poland. Spurred by the recent breakdown of this political duopoly, which occurred in 2015, we present a model extension that describes both the long term coexistence of the two opposing opinions and a rapid, transitory change due to the appearance of a third party alternative. We provide quantitative comparison of the model with the results of polls and elections in Poland, testing the assumptions related to the modeled processes and the parameters used in the simulations. It is shown, that when the propaganda messages of the two incumbent parties differ in emotional tone, the political status quo may be unstable. The asymmetry of the emotions within the support bases of the two parties allows one of them to be ‘invaded’ by a newcomer third party very quickly, while the second remains immune to such invasion. PMID:27171226

  5. Evaluation of food provision and nutrition support at the London 2012 Olympic Games: the opinion of sports nutrition experts.

    PubMed

    Pelly, Fiona; Meyer, Nanna L; Pearce, Jeni; Burkhart, Sarah J; Burke, Louise M

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the food provision and nutrition support at the London 2012 Olympic (OG) and Paralympic Games (PG) from the perspective of sports nutrition experts attending the event. Participants (n = 15) were asked to complete an online survey and rate on a Likert scale menu qualities, food safety, sustainability practices, nutrition labeling, and provision for cultural needs, dietary regimes and specific situations. Open-ended responses were incorporated to explore expert opinion and areas for improvement. Participants rated their overall experience of the food provision as 7.6 out of 10 (range 5 to 10), with the majority (n = 11) rating it greater than 7. The variety, accessibility, presentation, temperature, and freshness of menu items rated as average to good. A below average rating was received for recovery food and beverages, provision of food for traveling to other venues, taking suitable snacks out of the dining hall and provision of food at other venues. However, the variety and accessibility of choices for Ramadan, and provision of post-competition food were rated highly. A number of comments were received about the lack of gluten free and lower energy/fat items. The inclusion of allergens on nutrition labeling was considered more important than nutrient content. While dietetic review of the menu in advance of the OG and PG is clearly a valuable process that has resulted in improvements in the food supply, there are still areas that need to be addressed that are currently not implemented during the event.

  6. [Lipomodelling for correction of breast conservative treatment sequelae. Medicolegal aspects. Expert opinion on five problematic clinical cases].

    PubMed

    Gosset, J; Flageul, G; Toussoun, G; Guérin, N; Tourasse, C; Delay, E

    2008-04-01

    In our unit, breast cancer patients suffering mild sequelae of conservative cancer treatment receive fat transfer (lipomodelling), following a precise protocol, based on mammographic and ultrasound examinations and MRI. Available data do not seem to indicate any deleterious impact on patient outcome, notably in view of radiological images, but recurrence (or rather occurrence of new ipsilateral or contralateral cancer) is frequent. The correlation between new or recurrent breast cancer and lipomodelling is high; misinterpretations are possible and frequently arise. The present paper is a description of five complex clinical cases and a discussion of the medicolegal issues that may possibly arise; it also provides tentative expert evaluation of the cases. Clinical findings are reported and analyzed. The second step is a discussion of the radiological impact of lipomodelling, and of the problems caused by the transfer of potentially malignant cells when no preoperative diagnosis of recurrence is made; the morphological and esthetic benefits of the method are described, as well as the potential beneficial impact of fat transfer, notably associated with lower breast density and injections of fat stem cells. Our conclusion is that specialized radiologists, as well as plastic surgery and oncology experts should address the question of fat transfer in operated breast cancer patients and give their reasoned opinion about potentially litigious cases. This would help minimize or solve the conflicts between patients, doctors and experts. Establishing common ground between the different stakeholders would allow the development of the technique, as lipomodelling is, according to our experience, a tremendous advance in the treatment of sequelae from conservative breast cancer surgery.

  7. Recurrent issues in efforts to prevent homicidal youth violence in schools: expert opinions.

    PubMed

    Dill, Karen E; Redding, Richard E; Smith, Peter K; Surette, Ray; Cornell, Dewey G

    2011-01-01

    Developmental research on social influences on adolescents can guide practices aimed to prevent homicidal youth violence. School shootings have repeatedly raised questions about the contributory role of bullying and entertainment violence, how news media publicity might produce copycat crimes, and whether stiffer criminal sanctions might have a deterrent effect. This article presents the thoughts and recommendations of a group of experts on these topics summarizing the current knowledge base. In brief, bullying reduction programs may be a useful early prevention effort. Television and video games with violent themes can encourage aggressive behavior, but these media can be used to teach more prosocial behavior as well. The potential copycat effects of highly publicized crimes might be diminished with more restrained reporting, although more research is needed. Finally, there is substantial evidence that increased criminal sanctions for youthful offenders have not had a deterrent effect.

  8. The effectiveness and practicality of occupational stress management interventions: a survey of subject matter expert opinions.

    PubMed

    Bellarosa, C; Chen, P Y

    1997-07-01

    Stress management (SM) subject matter experts (SMEs) evaluated 6 widely used occupational SM interventions (relaxation, physical fitness, cognitive restructuring, meditation, assertiveness training, and stress inoculation) on the basis of 10 practicality criteria and 7 effectiveness objectives. Relaxation was evaluated overall as the most practical intervention, while meditation and stress inoculation were judged as the least practical. Physical fitness was chosen to be the most effective intervention, while both meditation and assertiveness training were rated overall as the least effective. The findings also revealed that the SMEs considered history of success and duration of effect, rather than "relevance to program objectives," as the most important factors when selecting SM interventions. Incongruence between effectiveness ratings and actual choices of interventions are discussed.

  9. Recurrent issues in efforts to prevent homicidal youth violence in schools: expert opinions.

    PubMed

    Dill, Karen E; Redding, Richard E; Smith, Peter K; Surette, Ray; Cornell, Dewey G

    2011-01-01

    Developmental research on social influences on adolescents can guide practices aimed to prevent homicidal youth violence. School shootings have repeatedly raised questions about the contributory role of bullying and entertainment violence, how news media publicity might produce copycat crimes, and whether stiffer criminal sanctions might have a deterrent effect. This article presents the thoughts and recommendations of a group of experts on these topics summarizing the current knowledge base. In brief, bullying reduction programs may be a useful early prevention effort. Television and video games with violent themes can encourage aggressive behavior, but these media can be used to teach more prosocial behavior as well. The potential copycat effects of highly publicized crimes might be diminished with more restrained reporting, although more research is needed. Finally, there is substantial evidence that increased criminal sanctions for youthful offenders have not had a deterrent effect. PMID:21491577

  10. Prophylaxis and management of postoperative nausea and vomiting in enhanced recovery protocols: Expert Opinion statement from the American Society for Enhanced Recovery (ASER).

    PubMed

    Gupta, Ruchir; Soto, Roy

    2016-01-01

    International experience and evidence-based practices have shown that reduction in variability through use of protocolized perioperative care improves surgical outcomes and reduces costs to patients and healthcare systems. In this series of Expert Opinions, we provide consensus recommendations for the various components of perioperative care to aid with the development of enhanced recovery after surgery protocols.

  11. Nurses' expert opinions of workplace interventions for a healthy working environment: a Delphi survey.

    PubMed

    Doran, Diane; Clarke, Sean; Hayes, Laureen; Nincic, Vera

    2014-09-01

    Much has been written about interventions to improve the nursing work environment, yet little is known about their effectiveness. A Delphi survey of nurse experts was conducted to explore perceptions about workplace interventions in terms of feasibility and likelihood of positive impact on nurse outcomes such as job satisfaction and nurse retention. The interventions that received the highest ratings for likelihood of positive impact included: bedside handover to improve communication at shift report and promote patient-centred care; training program for nurses in dealing with violent or aggressive behaviour; development of charge nurse leadership team; training program focused on creating peer-supportive atmospheres and group cohesion; and schedule that recognizes work balance and family demands. The overall findings are consistent with the literature that highlights the importance of communication and teamwork, nurse health and safety, staffing and scheduling practices, professional development and leadership and mentorship. Nursing researchers and decision-makers should work in collaboration to implement and evaluate interventions for promoting practice environments characterized by effective communication and teamwork, professional growth and adequate support for the health and well-being of nurses. PMID:25676080

  12. Nurses' expert opinions of workplace interventions for a healthy working environment: a Delphi survey.

    PubMed

    Doran, Diane; Clarke, Sean; Hayes, Laureen; Nincic, Vera

    2014-09-01

    Much has been written about interventions to improve the nursing work environment, yet little is known about their effectiveness. A Delphi survey of nurse experts was conducted to explore perceptions about workplace interventions in terms of feasibility and likelihood of positive impact on nurse outcomes such as job satisfaction and nurse retention. The interventions that received the highest ratings for likelihood of positive impact included: bedside handover to improve communication at shift report and promote patient-centred care; training program for nurses in dealing with violent or aggressive behaviour; development of charge nurse leadership team; training program focused on creating peer-supportive atmospheres and group cohesion; and schedule that recognizes work balance and family demands. The overall findings are consistent with the literature that highlights the importance of communication and teamwork, nurse health and safety, staffing and scheduling practices, professional development and leadership and mentorship. Nursing researchers and decision-makers should work in collaboration to implement and evaluate interventions for promoting practice environments characterized by effective communication and teamwork, professional growth and adequate support for the health and well-being of nurses.

  13. Iranian Expert Opinion about Necessary Criteria for Hospitals Management Performance Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Dadgar, Elham; Janati, Ali; Tabrizi, Jafar Sadegh; Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mohammad; Barati, Omid

    2012-01-01

    Background: Managers in the hospital should have enough managerial skill to be coordinated with the complex environment. Defining a competency framework assessment for hospital man-agement will help to establish core competencies for hospital managers. The aim of this study was to develop concrete and suitable performance assessment criteria using expert's view. Methods: In this qualitative study in total, 20 professionals participated in the interview and Fo¬cus Group Discussions (FGD). Two of informants were interviewed and 18 professionals par¬ticipants in three focus group discussions. Discussions and interviews were well planned, the FGD environments were suitable and after interviews completion the notes were checked with participant for completeness. Thematic analysis method was used for the analysis of qualitative data. Results: Findings from 3 FGDs and 2 semi structured interviews done with 20 professionals were categorized accordance to themes. The findings were classified in 7 major and 41 sub themes. The major themes include competency related to planning, organization and staff per-formance management, leadership, information management, and clinical governance and per-formance indicators. Conclusion: All participants had hospital administration experience; so their explanation impor¬tant in identifying the criteria and developing hospital managers’ performance assessment tool. In addition to professional perspectives and studies done in other countries, in order to design this kind of tools, it is necessary to adopt the obtained findings to the local hospital conditions. PMID:24688938

  14. MERS-CoV at the Animal–Human Interface: Inputs on Exposure Pathways from an Expert-Opinion Elicitation

    PubMed Central

    Funk, Anna L.; Goutard, Flavie Luce; Miguel, Eve; Bourgarel, Mathieu; Chevalier, Veronique; Faye, Bernard; Peiris, J. S. Malik; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Roger, Francois Louis

    2016-01-01

    Nearly 4 years after the first report of the emergence of Middle-East respiratory syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and nearly 1800 human cases later, the ecology of MERS-CoV, its epidemiology, and more than risk factors of MERS-CoV transmission between camels are poorly understood. Knowledge about the pathways and mechanisms of transmission from animals to humans is limited; as of yet, transmission risks have not been quantified. Moreover the divergent sanitary situations and exposures to animals among populations in the Arabian Peninsula, where human primary cases appear to dominate, vs. other regions in the Middle East and Africa, with no reported human clinical cases and where the virus has been detected only in dromedaries, represents huge scientific and health challenges. Here, we have used expert-opinion elicitation in order to obtain ideas on relative importance of MERS-CoV risk factors and estimates of transmission risks from various types of contact between humans and dromedaries. Fourteen experts with diverse and extensive experience in MERS-CoV relevant fields were enrolled and completed an online questionnaire that examined pathways based on several scenarios, e.g., camels–camels, camels–human, bats/other species to camels/humans, and the role of diverse biological substances (milk, urine, etc.) and potential fomites. Experts believed that dromedary camels play the largest role in MERS-CoV infection of other dromedaries; however, they also indicated a significant influence of the season (i.e. calving or weaning periods) on transmission risk. All experts thought that MERS-CoV-infected dromedaries and asymptomatic humans play the most important role in infection of humans, with bats and other species presenting a possible, but yet undefined, risk. Direct and indirect contact of humans with dromedary camels were identified as the most risky types of contact, when compared to consumption of various camel products, with estimated “most likely

  15. Using expert opinion to prioritize impacts of climate change on sea turtles' nesting grounds.

    PubMed

    Fuentes, M M P B; Cinner, J E

    2010-12-01

    Managers and conservationists often need to prioritize which impacts from climate change to deal with from a long list of threats. However, data which allows comparison of the relative impact from climatic threats for decision-making is often unavailable. This is the case for the management of sea turtles in the face of climate change. The terrestrial life stages of sea turtles can be negatively impacted by various climatic processes, such as sea level rise, altered cyclonic activity, and increased sand temperatures. However, no study has systematically investigated the relative impact of each of these climatic processes, making it challenging for managers to prioritize their decisions and resources. To address this we offer a systematic method for eliciting expert knowledge to estimate the relative impact of climatic processes on sea turtles' terrestrial reproductive phase. For this we used as an example the world's largest population of green sea turtles and asked 22 scientists and managers to answer a paper based survey with a series of pair-wise comparison matrices that compared the anticipated impacts from each climatic process. Both scientists and managers agreed that increased sand temperature will likely cause the most threat to the reproductive output of the nGBR green turtle population followed by sea level rise, then altered cyclonic activity. The methodology used proved useful to determine the relative impact of the selected climatic processes on sea turtles' reproductive output and provided valuable information for decision-making. Thus, the methodological approach can potentially be applied to other species and ecosystems of management concern. PMID:20702026

  16. Using expert opinion to prioritize impacts of climate change on sea turtles' nesting grounds.

    PubMed

    Fuentes, M M P B; Cinner, J E

    2010-12-01

    Managers and conservationists often need to prioritize which impacts from climate change to deal with from a long list of threats. However, data which allows comparison of the relative impact from climatic threats for decision-making is often unavailable. This is the case for the management of sea turtles in the face of climate change. The terrestrial life stages of sea turtles can be negatively impacted by various climatic processes, such as sea level rise, altered cyclonic activity, and increased sand temperatures. However, no study has systematically investigated the relative impact of each of these climatic processes, making it challenging for managers to prioritize their decisions and resources. To address this we offer a systematic method for eliciting expert knowledge to estimate the relative impact of climatic processes on sea turtles' terrestrial reproductive phase. For this we used as an example the world's largest population of green sea turtles and asked 22 scientists and managers to answer a paper based survey with a series of pair-wise comparison matrices that compared the anticipated impacts from each climatic process. Both scientists and managers agreed that increased sand temperature will likely cause the most threat to the reproductive output of the nGBR green turtle population followed by sea level rise, then altered cyclonic activity. The methodology used proved useful to determine the relative impact of the selected climatic processes on sea turtles' reproductive output and provided valuable information for decision-making. Thus, the methodological approach can potentially be applied to other species and ecosystems of management concern.

  17. Method for distributed agent-based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior

    DOEpatents

    Ivezic, Nenad; Potok, Thomas E.

    2004-11-30

    A method for distributed agent based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior on a single-processor computer comprises the steps of: object modeling a manufacturing technique having a plurality of processes; associating a distributed agent with each the process; and, programming each the agent to respond to discrete events corresponding to the manufacturing technique, wherein each discrete event triggers a programmed response. The method can further comprise the step of transmitting the discrete events to each agent in a message loop. In addition, the programming step comprises the step of conditioning each agent to respond to a discrete event selected from the group consisting of a clock tick message, a resources received message, and a request for output production message.

  18. Evaluation of food provision and nutrition support at the London 2012 Olympic Games: the opinion of sports nutrition experts.

    PubMed

    Pelly, Fiona; Meyer, Nanna L; Pearce, Jeni; Burkhart, Sarah J; Burke, Louise M

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the food provision and nutrition support at the London 2012 Olympic (OG) and Paralympic Games (PG) from the perspective of sports nutrition experts attending the event. Participants (n = 15) were asked to complete an online survey and rate on a Likert scale menu qualities, food safety, sustainability practices, nutrition labeling, and provision for cultural needs, dietary regimes and specific situations. Open-ended responses were incorporated to explore expert opinion and areas for improvement. Participants rated their overall experience of the food provision as 7.6 out of 10 (range 5 to 10), with the majority (n = 11) rating it greater than 7. The variety, accessibility, presentation, temperature, and freshness of menu items rated as average to good. A below average rating was received for recovery food and beverages, provision of food for traveling to other venues, taking suitable snacks out of the dining hall and provision of food at other venues. However, the variety and accessibility of choices for Ramadan, and provision of post-competition food were rated highly. A number of comments were received about the lack of gluten free and lower energy/fat items. The inclusion of allergens on nutrition labeling was considered more important than nutrient content. While dietetic review of the menu in advance of the OG and PG is clearly a valuable process that has resulted in improvements in the food supply, there are still areas that need to be addressed that are currently not implemented during the event. PMID:24903640

  19. The Effects of Peer-Like and Expert-Like Pedagogical Agents on Learners' Agent Perceptions, Task-Related Attitudes, and Learning Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liew, Tze Wei; Tan, Su-Mae; Jayothisa, Chandrika

    2013-01-01

    The present study examined the impact of peer-like and expert-like agent stereotypes, as operationalized by agent's image and voice, on learners' agent perceptions, task-related attitudes, and learning achievement. 56 university freshmen (23 males and 33 females) interacted with either the peer-like agent (female college student) or the…

  20. [Quality of genetic services--analysis of medical genetic expert opinions solicited by private health insurance companies].

    PubMed

    Nippert, Reinhardt Peter; Schmidtke, Jörg

    2012-01-01

    Service quality for patients with genetic conditions can be assessed through the analysis of clinical genetic data sets, as was the case in this study. It represents a secondary analysis of a compilation of a single genetic expert's medical opinions covering the years 2000 to 2009, solicited by private health insurance companies with the intention of probing into medical necessity and adequacy of genetic testing ordered by physicians. Genetic testing has become an increasingly important part of clinical diagnostic services. Controlling these services does not only reduce costs but also saves patients from unwarranted over-utilisation. Therefore, the reasons given by doctors when ordering genetic tests are part of the quality of service delivery. The study revealed that more than 30% of the molecular genetic tests ordered lack sound medical reasoning and 30% of the cases studied show violation or neglect of guidelines and recommendations for diagnostic procedures with respect to genetic testing. In essence, the findings indicate a need for human genetic information among physicians. Their professional organisations are called upon to design and offer CME/CPD programmes in medical genetics to maintain and continually improve the quality of medical genetic care for patients with genetic conditions. PMID:22682419

  1. Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion.

    PubMed

    Gale, P; Brouwer, A; Ramnial, V; Kelly, L; Kosmider, R; Fooks, A R; Snary, E L

    2010-02-01

    Expert opinion was elicited to undertake a qualitative risk assessment to estimate the current and future risks to the European Union (EU) from five vector-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) into the EU from other parts of the world, with African swine fever virus (ASFV) and West Nile virus (WNV) being less affected. Currently the predicted risks of incursion were lowest for RVFV and highest for ASFV. Risks of incursion were considered for six routes of entry (namely vectors, livestock, meat products, wildlife, pets and people). Climate change was predicted to increase the risk of incursion from entry of vectors for all five viruses to some degree, the strongest effects being predicted for AHSV, CCHFV and WNV. This work will facilitate identification of appropriate risk management options in relation to adaptations to climate change.

  2. Survey of Opinions on the Primacy of "g" and Social Consequences of Ability Testing: A Comparison of Expert and Non-Expert Views

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reeve, Charlie L.; Charles, Jennifer E.

    2008-01-01

    The current study examines the views of experts in the science of mental abilities about the primacy and uniqueness of "g" and the social implications of ability testing, and compares their responses to the views of a group of non-expert psychologists. Results indicate expert consensus that "g" is an important, non-trivial determinant (or at least…

  3. Spanning the Research/Application Interface: Liaisons and Trainers as Agents Bridging Expert and Semi-Expert Discourses.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Werner, Mark

    This paper reviews the communicative behavior surrounding the coordination of expert and "semi-expert" groups of scientists and engineers by analyzing several histories of technology that focus on the coordination of research information between a research organization and many development organizations. For the paper's purposes, semi-expert means…

  4. Psoriasis, cardiovascular events, cancer risk and alcohol use: evidence-based recommendations based on systematic review and expert opinion.

    PubMed

    Richard, M-A; Barnetche, T; Horreau, C; Brenaut, E; Pouplard, C; Aractingi, S; Aubin, F; Cribier, B; Joly, P; Jullien, D; Le Maître, M; Misery, L; Ortonne, J-P; Paul, C

    2013-08-01

    measures. There was a lack of substantial evidence that conventional systemic treatment has any effect on cardiovascular risk although methotrexate might be cardioprotective. An increased risk of solid cancer potentially associated with smoking and alcohol use was identified. The role of systemic treatment on cancer risk could not be assessed thoroughly due to limited long-term follow-up data. A higher risk of non-melanoma skin cancers especially squamous cell carcinoma was shown, mainly due to previous exposure to oral 8-methoxypsoralen-ultraviolet-A (PUVA), ciclosporin and possibly methotrexate. No firm conclusion could be drawn regarding alcohol and psoriasis due to high variability in alcohol usage assessment in studies. Clinical experience suggests higher alcohol consumption among psoriasis patients compared to the general population. The mean expert participants' level of agreement on these recommendations varied from 6.8 to 9.4. These 12 recommendations are evidence based and supported by a panel of expert dermatologists. The next step is now to disseminate these recommendations to dermatologists who did not participate in the Expert board meeting and to assess their opinion about the recommendations.

  5. Roles of publishers, subscription agents, and institutional subscribers in the academic journal business : Opinions after reading the “Series: Perspectives on serials crisis and scholarly communication practice”

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taguchi, Nobuyuki

    Roles of publishers, subscription agents, and institutional subscribers in the academic journal business : Opinions after reading the “Series: Perspectives on serials crisis and scholarly communication practice”

  6. Ethical acceptability of research on human-animal chimeric embryos: summary of opinions by the Japanese Expert Panel on Bioethics.

    PubMed

    Mizuno, Hiroshi; Akutsu, Hidenori; Kato, Kazuto

    2015-01-01

    Human-animal chimeric embryos are embryos obtained by introducing human cells into a non-human animal embryo. It is envisaged that the application of human-animal chimeric embryos may make possible many useful research projects including producing three-dimensional human organs in animals and verification of the pluripotency of human ES cells or iPS cells in vivo. The use of human-animal chimeric embryos, however, raises several ethical and moral concerns. The most fundamental one is that human-animal chimeric embryos possess the potential to develop into organisms containing human-derived tissue, which may lead to infringing upon the identity of the human species, and thus impairing human dignity. The Japanese Expert Panel on Bioethics in the Cabinet Office carefully considered the scientific significance and ethical acceptability of the issue and released its "Opinions regarding the handling of research using human-animal chimeric embryos". The Panel proposed a framework of case-by-case review, and suggested that the following points must be carefully reviewed from the perspective of ethical acceptability: (a) Types of animal embryos and types of animals receiving embryo transfers, particularly in dealing with non-human primates; (b) Types of human cells and organs intended for production, particularly in dealing with human nerve or germ cells; and (c) Extent of the period required for post-transfer studies. The scientific knowledge that can be gained from transfer into an animal uterus and from the production of an individual must be clarified to avoid unnecessary generation of chimeric animals. The time is ripe for the scientific community and governments to start discussing the ethical issues for establishing a global consensus. PMID:26694481

  7. Ethical acceptability of research on human-animal chimeric embryos: summary of opinions by the Japanese Expert Panel on Bioethics.

    PubMed

    Mizuno, Hiroshi; Akutsu, Hidenori; Kato, Kazuto

    2015-01-01

    Human-animal chimeric embryos are embryos obtained by introducing human cells into a non-human animal embryo. It is envisaged that the application of human-animal chimeric embryos may make possible many useful research projects including producing three-dimensional human organs in animals and verification of the pluripotency of human ES cells or iPS cells in vivo. The use of human-animal chimeric embryos, however, raises several ethical and moral concerns. The most fundamental one is that human-animal chimeric embryos possess the potential to develop into organisms containing human-derived tissue, which may lead to infringing upon the identity of the human species, and thus impairing human dignity. The Japanese Expert Panel on Bioethics in the Cabinet Office carefully considered the scientific significance and ethical acceptability of the issue and released its "Opinions regarding the handling of research using human-animal chimeric embryos". The Panel proposed a framework of case-by-case review, and suggested that the following points must be carefully reviewed from the perspective of ethical acceptability: (a) Types of animal embryos and types of animals receiving embryo transfers, particularly in dealing with non-human primates; (b) Types of human cells and organs intended for production, particularly in dealing with human nerve or germ cells; and (c) Extent of the period required for post-transfer studies. The scientific knowledge that can be gained from transfer into an animal uterus and from the production of an individual must be clarified to avoid unnecessary generation of chimeric animals. The time is ripe for the scientific community and governments to start discussing the ethical issues for establishing a global consensus.

  8. Eliciting expert opinion on the effectiveness and practicality of interventions in the farm and rural environment to reduce human exposure to Escherichia coli O157.

    PubMed

    Cross, P; Rigby, D; Edwards-Jones, G

    2012-04-01

    Few hard data are available on emergent diseases. However, the need to mitigate and manage emergent diseases has prompted the use of various expert consultation and opinion elicitation methods. We adapted best-worst scaling (BWS) to elicit experts' assessment of the relative practicality and effectiveness of measures to reduce human exposure to E. coli O157. Cattle vaccination was considered the most effective and hand-washing was considered the most practical measure. BWS proved a powerful tool for expert elicitation as it breaks down a cognitively burdensome process into simple, repeated, tasks. In addition, statistical analysis of the resulting data provides a scaled set of scores for the measures, rather than just a ranking. The use of two criteria (practicality and effectiveness) within the BWS process allows the identification of subsets of measures judged as potentially performing well on both criteria, and conversely those judged to be neither effective nor practical.

  9. Workflow Agents vs. Expert Systems: Problem Solving Methods in Work Systems Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clancey, William J.; Sierhuis, Maarten; Seah, Chin

    2009-01-01

    During the 1980s, a community of artificial intelligence researchers became interested in formalizing problem solving methods as part of an effort called "second generation expert systems" (2nd GES). How do the motivations and results of this research relate to building tools for the workplace today? We provide an historical review of how the theory of expertise has developed, a progress report on a tool for designing and implementing model-based automation (Brahms), and a concrete example how we apply 2nd GES concepts today in an agent-based system for space flight operations (OCAMS). Brahms incorporates an ontology for modeling work practices, what people are doing in the course of a day, characterized as "activities." OCAMS was developed using a simulation-to-implementation methodology, in which a prototype tool was embedded in a simulation of future work practices. OCAMS uses model-based methods to interactively plan its actions and keep track of the work to be done. The problem solving methods of practice are interactive, employing reasoning for and through action in the real world. Analogously, it is as if a medical expert system were charged not just with interpreting culture results, but actually interacting with a patient. Our perspective shifts from building a "problem solving" (expert) system to building an actor in the world. The reusable components in work system designs include entire "problem solvers" (e.g., a planning subsystem), interoperability frameworks, and workflow agents that use and revise models dynamically in a network of people and tools. Consequently, the research focus shifts so "problem solving methods" include ways of knowing that models do not fit the world, and ways of interacting with other agents and people to gain or verify information and (ultimately) adapt rules and procedures to resolve problematic situations.

  10. The Use of Expert Opinion to Assess the Risk of Emergence or Re-Emergence of Infectious Diseases in Canada Associated with Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Cox, Ruth; Revie, Crawford W.; Sanchez, Javier

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change is predicted to lead to an increase in infectious disease outbreaks. Reliable surveillance for diseases that are most likely to emerge is required, and given limited resources, policy decision makers need rational methods with which to prioritise pathogen threats. Here expert opinion was collected to determine what criteria could be used to prioritise diseases according to the likelihood of emergence in response to climate change and according to their impact. We identified a total of 40 criteria that might be used for this purpose in the Canadian context. The opinion of 64 experts from academic, government and independent backgrounds was collected to determine the importance of the criteria. A weight was calculated for each criterion based on the expert opinion. The five that were considered most influential on disease emergence or impact were: potential economic impact, severity of disease in the general human population, human case fatality rate, the type of climate that the pathogen can tolerate and the current climatic conditions in Canada. There was effective consensus about the influence of some criteria among participants, while for others there was considerable variation. The specific climate criteria that were most likely to influence disease emergence were: an annual increase in temperature, an increase in summer temperature, an increase in summer precipitation and to a lesser extent an increase in winter temperature. These climate variables were considered to be most influential on vector-borne diseases and on food and water-borne diseases. Opinion about the influence of climate on air-borne diseases and diseases spread by direct/indirect contact were more variable. The impact of emerging diseases on the human population was deemed more important than the impact on animal populations. PMID:22848536

  11. Defining Landscape Resistance Values in Least-Cost Connectivity Models for the Invasive Grey Squirrel: A Comparison of Approaches Using Expert-Opinion and Habitat Suitability Modelling

    PubMed Central

    Stevenson-Holt, Claire D.; Watts, Kevin; Bellamy, Chloe C.; Nevin, Owen T.; Ramsey, Andrew D.

    2014-01-01

    Least-cost models are widely used to study the functional connectivity of habitat within a varied landscape matrix. A critical step in the process is identifying resistance values for each land cover based upon the facilitating or impeding impact on species movement. Ideally resistance values would be parameterised with empirical data, but due to a shortage of such information, expert-opinion is often used. However, the use of expert-opinion is seen as subjective, human-centric and unreliable. This study derived resistance values from grey squirrel habitat suitability models (HSM) in order to compare the utility and validity of this approach with more traditional, expert-led methods. Models were built and tested with MaxEnt, using squirrel presence records and a categorical land cover map for Cumbria, UK. Predictions on the likelihood of squirrel occurrence within each land cover type were inverted, providing resistance values which were used to parameterise a least-cost model. The resulting habitat networks were measured and compared to those derived from a least-cost model built with previously collated information from experts. The expert-derived and HSM-inferred least-cost networks differ in precision. The HSM-informed networks were smaller and more fragmented because of the higher resistance values attributed to most habitats. These results are discussed in relation to the applicability of both approaches for conservation and management objectives, providing guidance to researchers and practitioners attempting to apply and interpret a least-cost approach to mapping ecological networks. PMID:25380289

  12. What to Do, and What Not to Do, When Diagnosing and Treating Breakthrough Cancer Pain (BTcP): Expert Opinion.

    PubMed

    Vellucci, R; Fanelli, G; Pannuti, R; Peruselli, C; Adamo, S; Alongi, G; Amato, F; Consoletti, L; Lamarca, L; Liguori, S; Lo Presti, C; Maione, A; Mameli, S; Marinangeli, F; Marulli, S; Minotti, V; Miotti, D; Montanari, L; Moruzzi, G; Palermo, S; Parolini, M; Poli, P; Tirelli, W; Valle, A; Romualdi, P

    2016-03-01

    Clinical management of breakthrough cancer pain (BTcP) is still not satisfactory despite the availability of effective pharmacological agents. This is in part linked to the lack of clarity regarding certain essential aspects of BTcP, including terminology, definition, epidemiology and assessment. Other barriers to effective management include a widespread prejudice among doctors and patients concerning the use of opioids, and inadequate assessment of pain severity, resulting in the prescription of ineffective drugs or doses. This review presents an overview of the appropriate and inappropriate actions to take in the diagnosis and treatment of BTcP, as determined by a panel of experts in the field. The ultimate aim is to provide a practical contribution to the unresolved issues in the management of BTcP. Five 'things to do' and five 'things not to do' in the diagnosis and treatment of BTcP are proposed, and evidence supporting said recommendations are described. It is the duty of all healthcare workers involved in managing cancer patients to be mindful of the possibility of BTcP occurrence and not to underestimate its severity. It is vital that all the necessary steps are carried out to establish an accurate and timely diagnosis, principally by establishing effective communication with the patient, the main information source. It is crucial that BTcP is treated with an effective pharmacological regimen and drug(s), dose and administration route prescribed are designed to suit the particular type of pain and importantly the individual needs of the patient. PMID:26755179

  13. Effects of Noise Suppression on Intelligibility: Experts' Opinions and Naive Normal-Hearing Listeners' Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilkhuysen, Gaston L. M.; Gaubitch, Nikolay; Huckvale, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: In this study, the authors investigated how well experts can adjust the settings of a commercial noise-reduction system to optimize the intelligibility for naive normal-hearing listeners. Method: In Experiment 1, 5 experts adjusted parameters for a noise-reduction system while aiming to optimize intelligibility. The stimuli consisted of…

  14. Has e-Learning Delivered on Its Promises? Expert Opinion on the Impact of e-Learning in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kanuka, Heather; Kelland, Jennifer

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the extent of agreement among experts on the impact of e-learning technology in Canadian higher education learning experiences. Fourteen participants who are experts in e-learning in higher education agreed there are contentions about e-learning technologies in the following areas: (1) a platform for…

  15. [Decision of German Supreme Court on July 30, 1999 relating to scientific evidence requirements for psychological expert opinion with respect to credibility of testimony and its consequences for future expert consultation].

    PubMed

    Balloff, R

    2000-04-01

    Basically nothing has been changed by this significant, clarifying, establishing and, most important, determining decision of the Highest Federal Court concerning the specific methods long since applied by experts in the field of deciding whether or not a testimony is believeable. None the less such a decision through the higher courts was obviously long overdue because numerous opinions of experts utilized in court cases were reached by applying methods not free of fault. The psychological evaluation of the content of truth in a testimony in cases of sexual abuse will therefore still be established with help of a methodical procedure of steps made under the assumption that statements pertaining to personal experiences differ in quality from those resulting from imagination in their characteristics of reality.

  16. Comparison of expert and nonexpert swimmers' opinions about the value, potency, and activity of four standard swimming strokes and underwater undulatory swimming.

    PubMed

    Collard, L; Oboeuf, A

    2009-04-01

    Underwater undulatory swimming (UUS) is often perceived to be a nonessential aspect of aquatic propulsion. Given their solid theoretical and practical training in swimming, physical education students should be capable of judging the true value of the "fifth stroke," since it appears to be the most efficient technique in high level, competitive swimming. To compare opinions and connotations associated with the stroke and the four official strokes (butterfly, backstroke, breaststroke, and crawl), 198 students (32 of whom were expert swimmers; M age = 20.6 yr., SD = 1.2), were surveyed using the semantic differential of Osgood, Suci, and Tannenbaum. Although answers of expert and nonexpert swimmers differed significantly (p < .01, except for the breaststroke), participants considered overall that undulatory stroke was less attractive, less powerful, and less rapid than the four surface strokes (d = 2.88 for the expert swimmers). Putting one arm in front of the other and repeating the sequence still remains the most solidly held representation of "the right way" to swim. However, the high observed standard deviations for the underwater undulatory stimulus (SD > or = 1.1 with SD max = 3 for the expert swimmers) attests to the view being less strongly held by swimming specialists. PMID:19544953

  17. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of three basalt waste isolation project staff hydrologists

    SciTech Connect

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The present study implemented a probability encoding method to estimate the probability distributions of selected hydrologic variables for the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior, and the anisotropy ratio of the interior of the Cohassett basalt flow beneath the Hanford Site. Site-speciic data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. However, this information is required to complete preliminary performance assessment studies. Rockwell chose a probability encoding method developed by SRI International to generate credible and auditable estimates of the probability distributions of effective porosity and hydraulic conductivity anisotropy. The results indicate significant differences of opinion among the experts. This was especially true of the values of the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow interior for which estimates differ by more than five orders of magnitude. The experts are in greater agreement about the values of effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top; their estimates for this variable are generally within one to two orders of magnitiude of each other. For anisotropy ratio, the expert estimates are generally within two or three orders of magnitude of each other. Based on this study, the Rockwell hydrologists estimate the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top to be generally higher than do the independent experts. For the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a smaller uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts. On the other hand, for the effective porosity and anisotropy ratio of the Cohassett basalt flow interior, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a larger uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts.

  18. Efficiency and factors influencing efficiency of Community Health Strategy in providing Maternal and Child Health services in Mwingi District, Kenya: an expert opinion perspective

    PubMed Central

    Nzioki, Japheth Mativo; Onyango, Rosebella Ogutu; Ombaka, James Herbert

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Community Health Strategy (CHS) is a new Primary Health Care (PHC) model in Kenya, designed to provide PHC services in Kenya. In 2011, CHS was initiated in Mwingi district as one of the components of APHIA plus kamili program. The objectives of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of the CHS in providing MCH services in Mwingi district and to establish the factors influencing efficiency of the CHS in providing MCH services in the district. Methods This was a qualitative study. Fifteen Key informants were sampled from key stakeholders. Sampling was done using purposive and maximum variation sampling methods. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were used for data collection. Data was managed and analyzed using NVIVO. Framework analysis and quasi statistics were used in data analysis. Results Expert opinion data indicated that the CHS was efficient in providing MCH services. Factors influencing efficiency of the CHS in provision of MCH services were: challenges facing Community Health Workers (CHWs), Social cultural and economic factors influencing MCH in the district, and motivation among CHWs. Conclusion Though CHS was found to be efficient in providing MCH services, this was an expert opinion perspective, a quantitative Cost Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) to confirm these findings is recommended. To improve efficiency of the CHS in the district, challenges facing CHWs and Social cultural and economic factors that influence efficiency of the CHS in the district need to be addressed. PMID:26090046

  19. Experts reviews of the multidisciplinary consensus conference colon and rectal cancer 2012: science, opinions and experiences from the experts of surgery.

    PubMed

    van de Velde, C J H; Boelens, P G; Tanis, P J; Espin, E; Mroczkowski, P; Naredi, P; Pahlman, L; Ortiz, H; Rutten, H J; Breugom, A J; Smith, J J; Wibe, A; Wiggers, T; Valentini, V

    2014-04-01

    The first multidisciplinary consensus conference on colon and rectal cancer was held in December 2012, achieving a majority of consensus for diagnostic and treatment decisions using the Delphi Method. This article will give a critical appraisal of the topics discussed during the meeting and in the consensus document by well-known leaders in surgery that were involved in this multidisciplinary consensus process. Scientific evidence, experience and opinions are collected to support multidisciplinary teams (MDT) with arguments for medical decision-making in diagnosis, staging and treatment strategies for patients with colon or rectal cancer. Surgery is the cornerstone of curative treatment for colon and rectal cancer. Standardizing treatment is an effective instrument to improve outcome of multidisciplinary cancer care for patients with colon and rectal cancer. In this article, a review of the following focuses; Perioperative care, age and colorectal surgery, obstructive colorectal cancer, stenting, surgical anatomical considerations, total mesorectal excision (TME) surgery and training, surgical considerations for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) and local recurrent rectal cancer (LRRC), surgery in stage IV colorectal cancer, definitions of quality of surgery, transanal endoscopic microsurgery (TEM), laparoscopic colon and rectal surgery, preoperative radiotherapy and chemoradiotherapy, and how about functional outcome after surgery?

  20. Voices from the Field: 30 Expert Opinions on America 2000, The Bush Administration Strategy To "Reinvent" America's Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Institute for Educational Leadership, Washington, DC.

    "America 2000," President Bush's national strategy for "Reinventing America's Schools" is evaluated by 30 invited experts in the following papers: "Bottom-up Reform From the Top Down" (John E. Chubb); "Would Choice + Competition Yield Quality Education?" (Richard F. Elmore); "The Federal Education Role Comes of Age" (Denis P. Doyle; "Choice,…

  1. Surveillance of Disparities in Vision and Eye Health in the United States: An Expert Panel’s Opinions

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Paul P.; West, Sheila K.; Block, Sandra S.; Clayton, Janine; Cotch, Mary Frances; Flynn, Colin; Geiss, Linda S.; Klein, Ronald; Olsen, Timothy W.; Owsley, Cynthia; Primo, Susan A.; Rubin, Gary S.; Ryskulova, Asel; Sharma, Sanjay; Friedman, David S.; Zhang, Xinzhi; Crews, John E.; Saaddine, Jinan B.

    2013-01-01

    PURPOSE To define surveillance approaches and metrics to capture the burden of vision health disparities and to identify properties of a surveillance system to guide public health interventions. DESIGN Expert panel. METHODS Analysis of relevant literature and deliberations of expert panel. RESULTS The panel identified that the purpose of vision surveillance was to link data to public health interventions. Panel members noted the importance of assessing vision through self-reported and performance-based measures. Defined populations should be included in a surveillance system to assess disparities in utilization of eye care and vision loss. The panel suggested that ophthalmic/vision measures should be sustained in national surveys and suggested that a vision surveillance system should be forged among federal agencies. CONCLUSIONS Employing the 6 outlined strategies would improve vision surveillance and help reach the vision-related objectives of Healthy People 2020. PMID:23158221

  2. [Hygienic standards of the occupational air quality established by the Experts on Chemical Agents, 2002].

    PubMed

    Kupczewska-Dobecka, Małgorzata; Czerczak, Sławomir

    2004-01-01

    In 2002, it was necessary to harmonize Polish law on admissible limits of occupational exposure with EU requirements. To this end, the Expert Group on Chemical Agents proposed maximum admissible concentration values for 29 chemicals: acrylaldehyde (107-02-8); cresols, mix of isomers (95-48-7), 108-39-4, 106-44-5, 1319-77-3); tetraphosphorus decaoxide (1314-56-3); ethylamine (75-04-7); naphtalene (91-20-3); nitrobenzene (98-95-3); nitrogen oxide (110-54-5); nitrogen dioxide (10102-44-0); pyridine (110-86-1); butan-2-one (78-93-3); carbon oxide (630-08-0); 1,4-dichlorobenzene (106-46-7); 1,2-dichlorobenzene (95-50-1); hexane (110-54-5); aluminum hydroxide (21645-51-2); aluminum (fumes and dusts) (7429-90-5); amitrole (61-82-5); 2,2-bis(4-hydroxyphenyl)propane (bisphenol A) (80-05-7); 3a,4,7,7a-terahydro-4,7-metanoindene (dicyclopentadiene) (77-73-6); trimethoxyphosphane (121-45-9); methyl chloroacetate (96-34-4); 4-methoxyphenol (150-76-5); methyl formate (107-31-3); 2-phenoxyethanol (122-99-6); divinylbenzene (1321-74-0); Diesel exhausts (-); hexane-6-lactam (dusts and fumes) (105-60-2); 2-isopropoxyethanol (109-59-1); and methyl 2-cyanoacrylate (137-05-3).

  3. [Security measures in the penal code, in the opinions of expert psychiatrists and some problems in their applications].

    PubMed

    Hajdukiewicz, Danuta

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to remind expert psychiatrists, the three basic elements required for the application of security measures such as placing the convict in a psychiatric hospital. They are: 1) An act was of serious social damage, 2) the damage was committed in a state of non-liability, 3) there is a high risk of the person repeating the act of similar social damage. The fulfilment of these three is an obligation for the court to apply the security measure of placing the person in a psychiatric hospital (art. 94 section 1 of the penal code). Practice shows that experts have difficulties in these evaluations, which in turn results in faults in directing for placement withoutjust cause, or in turn-there is no directing, even though there are causes for it. There is a huge need for legal regulations on these manners, after the forensic psychiatric observation ends. The non-liable delinquent who committed an act of serious social damage is in risk of committing this act once more, whilst he is not in custody. The issue is in showing a legal basis for keeping the non-liable delinquent from such an act in a psychiatric hospital, in spite of ending the observation, until the legal sentence on the security measure is in place.

  4. Incidence and distribution of foot-and-mouth disease in Asia, Africa and South America; combining expert opinion, official disease information and livestock populations to assist risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sumption, K; Rweyemamu, M; Wint, W

    2008-01-01

    Risk assessment procedures frequently require quantitative data on the prevalence of the disease in question. Although most countries are members of the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), the importance attached to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) reporting or surveillance for infection varies enormously between infected countries. There is a general consensus that FMD outbreaks in endemic countries are greatly under-reported, to a degree related either to the economic or the political development level of the country. This exploratory study was first undertaken by FAO, but thereafter extended and reviewed by the working group on FMD risk co-ordinated by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). The paper attempts to overcome the lack of reporting through using expert opinion to extrapolate incidence indices from countries considered to have 'representative' levels of FMD. These were combined with livestock density distributions to provide maps of prevalence indices, which were found to be highest in China (pigs), India (cattle), the Near East (small ruminants) and the Sahel (small ruminants and cattle). Similar patterns were found when weighted expert rankings of a range of additional ranked disease parameters were also produced, and then combined with susceptible animal densities to produce a weighted multi-species density. Results suggest that the methods can provide useful information at both national and sub-national resolution, even for countries for which quantitative FMD data is currently unavailable: two of the regions identified provide little or no data on a regular basis to the OIE and therefore may be overlooked if the level of officially reported FMD is only used. As the estimated prevalences are based on recent disease history and expert opinion, they are most likely to be inaccurate where FMD incursions are infrequent as a result of the preventive measures and geographical and trade isolation. This study, therefore, highlights the need for

  5. Incidence and distribution of foot-and-mouth disease in Asia, Africa and South America; combining expert opinion, official disease information and livestock populations to assist risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sumption, K; Rweyemamu, M; Wint, W

    2008-01-01

    Risk assessment procedures frequently require quantitative data on the prevalence of the disease in question. Although most countries are members of the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), the importance attached to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) reporting or surveillance for infection varies enormously between infected countries. There is a general consensus that FMD outbreaks in endemic countries are greatly under-reported, to a degree related either to the economic or the political development level of the country. This exploratory study was first undertaken by FAO, but thereafter extended and reviewed by the working group on FMD risk co-ordinated by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). The paper attempts to overcome the lack of reporting through using expert opinion to extrapolate incidence indices from countries considered to have 'representative' levels of FMD. These were combined with livestock density distributions to provide maps of prevalence indices, which were found to be highest in China (pigs), India (cattle), the Near East (small ruminants) and the Sahel (small ruminants and cattle). Similar patterns were found when weighted expert rankings of a range of additional ranked disease parameters were also produced, and then combined with susceptible animal densities to produce a weighted multi-species density. Results suggest that the methods can provide useful information at both national and sub-national resolution, even for countries for which quantitative FMD data is currently unavailable: two of the regions identified provide little or no data on a regular basis to the OIE and therefore may be overlooked if the level of officially reported FMD is only used. As the estimated prevalences are based on recent disease history and expert opinion, they are most likely to be inaccurate where FMD incursions are infrequent as a result of the preventive measures and geographical and trade isolation. This study, therefore, highlights the need for

  6. A distributed agent architecture for real-time knowledge-based systems: Real-time expert systems project, phase 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, S. Daniel

    1990-01-01

    We propose a distributed agent architecture (DAA) that can support a variety of paradigms based on both traditional real-time computing and artificial intelligence. DAA consists of distributed agents that are classified into two categories: reactive and cognitive. Reactive agents can be implemented directly in Ada to meet hard real-time requirements and be deployed on on-board embedded processors. A traditional real-time computing methodology under consideration is the rate monotonic theory that can guarantee schedulability based on analytical methods. AI techniques under consideration for reactive agents are approximate or anytime reasoning that can be implemented using Bayesian belief networks as in Guardian. Cognitive agents are traditional expert systems that can be implemented in ART-Ada to meet soft real-time requirements. During the initial design of cognitive agents, it is critical to consider the migration path that would allow initial deployment on ground-based workstations with eventual deployment on on-board processors. ART-Ada technology enables this migration while Lisp-based technologies make it difficult if not impossible. In addition to reactive and cognitive agents, a meta-level agent would be needed to coordinate multiple agents and to provide meta-level control.

  7. Personalised, predictive and preventive medication process in hospitals—still rather missing: professional opinion survey on medication safety in Czech hospitals (based on professional opinions of recognised Czech health care experts)

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The survey had the following aims: (1) to rationalise the hypothesis that risks and losses relating to medication process' errors in Czech hospitals are at least comparable with the other developed countries and EU countries especially, (2) to get a valid professional opinion/estimate on the rate of adverse drug events happening in Czech hospitals, (3) to point out that medication errors represent real and serious risks and (4) to induce the hospital management readiness to execute fundamental changes and improvements to medication processes. We read through a lot of studies inquiring into hospitals' medication safety. Then, we selected the studies which brought reliable findings and formulated credible conclusions. Finally, we addressed reputable Czech experts in health care and asked them structured questions whether the studies' findings and conclusions corresponded with our respondents' own experience in the Czech hospital clinical practice and what their own estimates of adverse drug events' consequences were like. Based on the reputable Czech health care expert opinions/estimates, the rate of a false drug administration may exceed 5%, and over 7% of those cause serious health complications to Czech hospital inpatients. Measured by an average length of stay (ALOS), the Czech inpatients, harmed by a false drug administration, stay in hospital for more than 2.6 days longer than necessary. Any positive changes to a currently used, traditional, ways of drug dispensing and administration, along with computerisation, automation, electronic traceability, validation, or verification, must well pay off. Referring to the above results, it seems to be wise to follow the EU priorities in health and health care improvements. Thus, a right usage of the financial means provided by the EC—in terms of its new health programmes for the period 2014–2020 (e.g. Horizon 2020)—has a good chance of a good result in doing the right things right, at the right time and in the

  8. [The issue of expert opinions in underage pornography materials involving underage persons below 15 years of age].

    PubMed

    Szydłowski, Łukasz; Lorkiewicz-Muszyńska, Dorota; Łabicka, Marzena; Waloszczyk, Piotr; Parafiniuk, Mirosław

    2007-01-01

    The number of cases in which the estimation of age of the persons pictured in pornography materials is mandatory has been increasing for the last few years. The aim of the publication was to indicate the possibilities which are currently available for the forensic experts in this matter. The ones published heretofore mainly had focused on the difficulties which are inseparable elements of such expertise. Current publication has a demonstrative character and has been based upon the experience of two Forensic Medicine Departments. Such expertise have been constantly prepared in both of them for the last few years and none of them had to be changed till now. The currently available methods which allow for age estimation of the persons upon their photographical and movie images are far from perfection. Still authors remain skeptic about the possibility that significant progress in that matter can be achieved in predictable future. In such situation the most effective application of existing techniques becomes essential to minimize the risk of false-positive and false-negative results from appearing. Some of the difficulties pointed out by other authors are not important in practice.

  9. Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

    2016-11-01

    Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

  10. The role of levosimendan in acute heart failure complicating acute coronary syndrome: A review and expert consensus opinion.

    PubMed

    Nieminen, Markku S; Buerke, Michael; Cohen-Solál, Alain; Costa, Susana; Édes, István; Erlikh, Alexey; Franco, Fatima; Gibson, Charles; Gorjup, Vojka; Guarracino, Fabio; Gustafsson, Finn; Harjola, Veli-Pekka; Husebye, Trygve; Karason, Kristjan; Katsytadze, Igor; Kaul, Sundeep; Kivikko, Matti; Marenzi, Giancarlo; Masip, Josep; Matskeplishvili, Simon; Mebazaa, Alexandre; Møller, Jacob E; Nessler, Jadwiga; Nessler, Bohdan; Ntalianis, Argyrios; Oliva, Fabrizio; Pichler-Cetin, Emel; Põder, Pentti; Recio-Mayoral, Alejandro; Rex, Steffen; Rokyta, Richard; Strasser, Ruth H; Zima, Endre; Pollesello, Piero

    2016-09-01

    Acute heart failure and/or cardiogenic shock are frequently triggered by ischemic coronary events. Yet, there is a paucity of randomized data on the management of patients with heart failure complicating acute coronary syndrome, as acute coronary syndrome and cardiogenic shock have frequently been defined as exclusion criteria in trials and registries. As a consequence, guideline recommendations are mostly driven by observational studies, even though these patients have a particularly poor prognosis compared to heart failure patients without signs of coronary artery disease. In acute heart failure, and especially in cardiogenic shock related to ischemic conditions, vasopressors and inotropes are used. However, both pathophysiological considerations and available clinical data suggest that these treatments may have disadvantageous effects. The inodilator levosimendan offers potential benefits due to a range of distinct effects including positive inotropy, restoration of ventriculo-arterial coupling, increases in tissue perfusion, and anti-stunning and anti-inflammatory effects. In clinical trials levosimendan improves symptoms, cardiac function, hemodynamics, and end-organ function. Adverse effects are generally less common than with other inotropic and vasoactive therapies, with the notable exception of hypotension. The decision to use levosimendan, in terms of timing and dosing, is influenced by the presence of pulmonary congestion, and blood pressure measurements. Levosimendan should be preferred over adrenergic inotropes as a first line therapy for all ACS-AHF patients who are under beta-blockade and/or when urinary output is insufficient after diuretics. Levosimendan can be used alone or in combination with other inotropic or vasopressor agents, but requires monitoring due to the risk of hypotension. PMID:27232927

  11. Is expert opinion enough? A critical assessment of the evidence for potential impacts of climate change on tick-borne diseases.

    PubMed

    Randolph, Sarah E

    2013-12-01

    Before attributing cause and consequence to climate change, the precise patterns of change must be known. Ground records across much of Europe show a 1-2 °C rise in temperatures in 1989 with no significant rise since then. The timing and spatial uniformity of this pattern, relative to changes in the distribution and incidence of many vector-borne diseases, are sufficient to falsify most simple claims that climate change is the principal cause of disease emergence. Furthermore, age-specific increases in incidence indicate causes other than, or in addition to, climate change. Unfortunately, many public health professionals repeat the received wisdom that climate change is worsening the burden of indirectly transmitted infections; this 'expert opinion' soon becomes consensus dogma divorced from quantitative evidence. The pressing need is to gather appropriate data to test the simple concept that the composition and relative importance of disparate multifactorial factors, commonly integrated within a causal nexus, will inevitably vary with the geographical, cultural, socio-economical, wildlife, etc. context. The greatest impact of warming occurs at the geographical limits of current distributions, where low temperatures limit the hazard of infected vectors. Within core endemic regions, changing exposure of humans to this hazard, through changing socio-economic factors is evidently more important amongst both the poor and the wealthy.

  12. Using Pooled Local Expert Opinions (PLEO) to Discern Patterns in Sightings of Live and Dead Manatees (Trichechus senegalensis, Link 1785) in Lower Sanaga Basin, Cameroon

    PubMed Central

    Mayaka, Theodore B.; Takoukam Kamla, Aristide; Self-Sullivan, Caryn

    2015-01-01

    We aimed at unveiling patterns in live and dead manatee sightings in the Lower Sanaga Basin, Cameroon. For this purpose, the expert opinions of 133 local fishers were collected during in-person interviews, distilled using categorical data analysis, and checked against scientific literature. The five main results are as follows: manatees were sighted averagely once a week in lakes, rivers, and the coast & estuaries, mostly in group sizes of 2-3; the odds of sighting live manatees (respectively dead manatees) decreased (respectively increased) from inland lakes to estuaries and the coast, via rivers; manatee carcasses were reported in all habitats, albeit more frequently in rivers; a distribution map based on fishers’ reports show two manatee concentration areas: Lake Ossa and the Malimba-Mbiako section of River Sanaga; the number of manatees was perceived as increasing despite incidental and directed catches. Thus, our findings corroborate earlier assessments of the Lower Sanaga Basin as being a major manatee conservation area. Additionally, from these results and the literature, we identified three hypotheses about local manatee persistence: deep pools such as lakes offer year round sanctuaries, not just dry-season refugia; seasonality of specific habitat variables determine manatee occurrence patterns; and local variability in habitat encroachment mediate the meta-population dynamics of manatee in the Lower Sanaga Basin. Finally, we examine the implications for data requirements in light of the small ecological scale at which the surveyed fishers ply their trade. Thus, consonant with the Malawi principles for the ecosystem approach to management (www.cbd.int/ecosystem), we recommend collecting data preferably at landscape scale, through a participatory monitoring program that fully integrates scientific and traditional knowledge systems. This program should include, amongst others, a standardised necropsy protocol for collecting mortality and biological data

  13. Using Pooled Local Expert Opinions (PLEO) to Discern Patterns in Sightings of Live and Dead Manatees (Trichechus senegalensis, Link 1785) in Lower Sanaga Basin, Cameroon.

    PubMed

    Mayaka, Theodore B; Takoukam Kamla, Aristide; Self-Sullivan, Caryn

    2015-01-01

    We aimed at unveiling patterns in live and dead manatee sightings in the Lower Sanaga Basin, Cameroon. For this purpose, the expert opinions of 133 local fishers were collected during in-person interviews, distilled using categorical data analysis, and checked against scientific literature. The five main results are as follows: manatees were sighted averagely once a week in lakes, rivers, and the coast & estuaries, mostly in group sizes of 2-3; the odds of sighting live manatees (respectively dead manatees) decreased (respectively increased) from inland lakes to estuaries and the coast, via rivers; manatee carcasses were reported in all habitats, albeit more frequently in rivers; a distribution map based on fishers' reports show two manatee concentration areas: Lake Ossa and the Malimba-Mbiako section of River Sanaga; the number of manatees was perceived as increasing despite incidental and directed catches. Thus, our findings corroborate earlier assessments of the Lower Sanaga Basin as being a major manatee conservation area. Additionally, from these results and the literature, we identified three hypotheses about local manatee persistence: deep pools such as lakes offer year round sanctuaries, not just dry-season refugia; seasonality of specific habitat variables determine manatee occurrence patterns; and local variability in habitat encroachment mediate the meta-population dynamics of manatee in the Lower Sanaga Basin. Finally, we examine the implications for data requirements in light of the small ecological scale at which the surveyed fishers ply their trade. Thus, consonant with the Malawi principles for the ecosystem approach to management (www.cbd.int/ecosystem), we recommend collecting data preferably at landscape scale, through a participatory monitoring program that fully integrates scientific and traditional knowledge systems. This program should include, amongst others, a standardised necropsy protocol for collecting mortality and biological data

  14. Using Pooled Local Expert Opinions (PLEO) to Discern Patterns in Sightings of Live and Dead Manatees (Trichechus senegalensis, Link 1785) in Lower Sanaga Basin, Cameroon.

    PubMed

    Mayaka, Theodore B; Takoukam Kamla, Aristide; Self-Sullivan, Caryn

    2015-01-01

    We aimed at unveiling patterns in live and dead manatee sightings in the Lower Sanaga Basin, Cameroon. For this purpose, the expert opinions of 133 local fishers were collected during in-person interviews, distilled using categorical data analysis, and checked against scientific literature. The five main results are as follows: manatees were sighted averagely once a week in lakes, rivers, and the coast & estuaries, mostly in group sizes of 2-3; the odds of sighting live manatees (respectively dead manatees) decreased (respectively increased) from inland lakes to estuaries and the coast, via rivers; manatee carcasses were reported in all habitats, albeit more frequently in rivers; a distribution map based on fishers' reports show two manatee concentration areas: Lake Ossa and the Malimba-Mbiako section of River Sanaga; the number of manatees was perceived as increasing despite incidental and directed catches. Thus, our findings corroborate earlier assessments of the Lower Sanaga Basin as being a major manatee conservation area. Additionally, from these results and the literature, we identified three hypotheses about local manatee persistence: deep pools such as lakes offer year round sanctuaries, not just dry-season refugia; seasonality of specific habitat variables determine manatee occurrence patterns; and local variability in habitat encroachment mediate the meta-population dynamics of manatee in the Lower Sanaga Basin. Finally, we examine the implications for data requirements in light of the small ecological scale at which the surveyed fishers ply their trade. Thus, consonant with the Malawi principles for the ecosystem approach to management (www.cbd.int/ecosystem), we recommend collecting data preferably at landscape scale, through a participatory monitoring program that fully integrates scientific and traditional knowledge systems. This program should include, amongst others, a standardised necropsy protocol for collecting mortality and biological data

  15. Opinions on Fresh Produce Food Safety and Quality Standards by Fresh Produce Supply Chain Experts from the Global South and North.

    PubMed

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Van Boxstael, Sigrid; Nanyunja, Jessica; Jordaan, Danie; Luning, Pieternel; Uyttendaele, Mieke

    2015-10-01

    This study describes the results of an on-line survey of fresh produce supply chain experts who work with producers from the Global North (n = 41, 20 countries) and the Global South (n = 63, 29 countries). They expressed their opinion using 1 to 5 Likert scales on several items related to four types of food safety and quality standards and legislation: Codex Alimentarius standards, European Union legislation, national legislation, and private standards. The results reflect the different circumstances under which the Southern and Northern producers operate in relation to the local organization, regulation, and support of the sector; but they also indicate similar challenges, in particular, the challenge of private standards, which were perceived to demand a higher implementation effort than the other three types of standards. Private standards were also strongly perceived to exclude Southern and Northern small- and medium-scale producers from high-value markets, whereas European Union legislation was perceived to strongly exclude, in particular, small- and medium-scale Southern producers. The results further highlight concerns about costly control measures and third-party certification that are required by downstream buyers but that are mostly paid for by upstream suppliers. Food standards are seen in their dual role as a catalyst for implementation of structured food safety management systems on the one hand and as a nontariff barrier to trade on the other hand. The results of the survey also pointed up the advantages of enforcing food safety and food quality standards in terms of knowledge spillover to noncertified activities, increased revenues, and improved food safety of delivered produce. Survey results highlight the importance of technical assistance and support of producers by governments and producer cooperatives or trade associations in the implementation and certification of food standards, along with increased awareness of and training of individuals in

  16. Opinions on Fresh Produce Food Safety and Quality Standards by Fresh Produce Supply Chain Experts from the Global South and North.

    PubMed

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Van Boxstael, Sigrid; Nanyunja, Jessica; Jordaan, Danie; Luning, Pieternel; Uyttendaele, Mieke

    2015-10-01

    This study describes the results of an on-line survey of fresh produce supply chain experts who work with producers from the Global North (n = 41, 20 countries) and the Global South (n = 63, 29 countries). They expressed their opinion using 1 to 5 Likert scales on several items related to four types of food safety and quality standards and legislation: Codex Alimentarius standards, European Union legislation, national legislation, and private standards. The results reflect the different circumstances under which the Southern and Northern producers operate in relation to the local organization, regulation, and support of the sector; but they also indicate similar challenges, in particular, the challenge of private standards, which were perceived to demand a higher implementation effort than the other three types of standards. Private standards were also strongly perceived to exclude Southern and Northern small- and medium-scale producers from high-value markets, whereas European Union legislation was perceived to strongly exclude, in particular, small- and medium-scale Southern producers. The results further highlight concerns about costly control measures and third-party certification that are required by downstream buyers but that are mostly paid for by upstream suppliers. Food standards are seen in their dual role as a catalyst for implementation of structured food safety management systems on the one hand and as a nontariff barrier to trade on the other hand. The results of the survey also pointed up the advantages of enforcing food safety and food quality standards in terms of knowledge spillover to noncertified activities, increased revenues, and improved food safety of delivered produce. Survey results highlight the importance of technical assistance and support of producers by governments and producer cooperatives or trade associations in the implementation and certification of food standards, along with increased awareness of and training of individuals in

  17. Recommendations for Risk Categorization and Prophylaxis of Invasive Fungal Diseases in Hematological Malignancies: A Critical Review of Evidence and Expert Opinion (TEO-4)

    PubMed Central

    Boğa, Can; Bolaman, Zahit; Çağırgan, Seçkin; Karadoğan, İhsan; Özcan, Mehmet Ali; Özkalemkaş, Fahir; Saba, Rabin; Sönmez, Mehmet; Şenol, Esin; Akan, Hamdi; Akova, Murat

    2015-01-01

    This is the last of a series of articles on invasive fungal infections prepared by opinion leaders in Turkey. The aim of these articles is to guide clinicians in managing invasive fungal diseases in hematological malignancies and stem cell transplantation based on the available best evidence in this field. The previous articles summarized the diagnosis and treatment of invasive fungal disease and this article aims to explain the risk categorization and guide the antifungal prophylaxis in invasive fungal disease. PMID:26316478

  18. Test and Measurement Expert Opinions: A Dialogue about Testing Students with Disabilities Out of Level in Large-Scale Assessments. Out-of-Level Testing Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Minnema, Jane; Thurlow, Martha; Bielinski, John

    Two focus groups of test and measurement experts were held to explore the use of out-of-level testing for students with disabilities. The participants (n=17) included state and federal level assessment personnel, test company employees, and university professors. A content analysis of the narrative results indicated that there was no clear…

  19. 14th St. Gallen International Breast Cancer Conference 2015: Evidence, Controversies, Consensus - Primary Therapy of Early Breast Cancer: Opinions Expressed by German Experts.

    PubMed

    Jackisch, Christian; Harbeck, Nadia; Huober, Jens; von Minckwitz, Gunter; Gerber, Bernd; Kreipe, Hans-Heinrich; Liedtke, Cornelia; Marschner, Norbert; Möbus, Volker; Scheithauer, Heike; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Thomssen, Christoph; Loibl, Sibylle; Beckmann, Matthias W; Blohmer, Jens-Uwe; Costa, Serban-Dan; Decker, Thomas; Diel, Ingo; Fasching, Peter A; Fehm, Tanja; Janni, Wolfgang; Lück, Hans-Joachim; Maass, Nicolai; Scharl, Anton; Untch, Michael

    2015-07-01

    The key topics of this year's 14th St. Gallen Consensus Conference on the diagnosis and therapy of primary breast cancer were again questions about breast surgery and axillary surgery, radio-oncology and systemic therapy options in consideration of tumor biology, and the clinical application of multigene assays. This year, the consensus conference took place in Vienna. From a German perspective, it makes sense to substantiate the results of the vote of the international panel representing 19 countries in light of the updated national therapy recommendations of the AGO (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Gynäkologische Onkologie). Therefore, 14 German breast cancer experts, 3 of whom are members of the International St. Gallen Panel, have commented on the voting results of the St. Gallen Consensus Conference 2015 in relation to clinical routine in Germany.

  20. 14th St. Gallen International Breast Cancer Conference 2015: Evidence, Controversies, Consensus – Primary Therapy of Early Breast Cancer: Opinions Expressed by German Experts

    PubMed Central

    Jackisch, Christian; Harbeck, Nadia; Huober, Jens; von Minckwitz, Gunter; Gerber, Bernd; Kreipe, Hans-Heinrich; Liedtke, Cornelia; Marschner, Norbert; Möbus, Volker; Scheithauer, Heike; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Thomssen, Christoph; Loibl, Sibylle; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Blohmer, Jens-Uwe; Costa, Serban-Dan; Decker, Thomas; Diel, Ingo; Fasching, Peter A.; Fehm, Tanja; Janni, Wolfgang; Lück, Hans-Joachim; Maass, Nicolai; Scharl, Anton; Untch, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Summary The key topics of this year's 14th St. Gallen Consensus Conference on the diagnosis and therapy of primary breast cancer were again questions about breast surgery and axillary surgery, radio-oncology and systemic therapy options in consideration of tumor biology, and the clinical application of multigene assays. This year, the consensus conference took place in Vienna. From a German perspective, it makes sense to substantiate the results of the vote of the international panel representing 19 countries in light of the updated national therapy recommendations of the AGO (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Gynäkologische Onkologie). Therefore, 14 German breast cancer experts, 3 of whom are members of the International St. Gallen Panel, have commented on the voting results of the St. Gallen Consensus Conference 2015 in relation to clinical routine in Germany. PMID:26557827

  1. Anisotropic opinion dynamics.

    PubMed

    Neirotti, Juan

    2016-07-01

    We consider the process of opinion formation in a society of interacting agents, where there is a set B of socially accepted rules. In this scenario, we observed that agents, represented by simple feed-forward, adaptive neural networks, may have a conservative attitude (mostly in agreement with B) or liberal attitude (mostly in agreement with neighboring agents) depending on how much their opinions are influenced by their peers. The topology of the network representing the interaction of the society's members is determined by a graph, where the agents' properties are defined over the vertexes and the interagent interactions are defined over the bonds. The adaptability of the agents allows us to model the formation of opinions as an online learning process, where agents learn continuously as new information becomes available to the whole society (online learning). Through the application of statistical mechanics techniques we deduced a set of differential equations describing the dynamics of the system. We observed that by slowly varying the average peer influence in such a way that the agents attitude changes from conservative to liberal and back, the average social opinion develops a hysteresis cycle. Such hysteretic behavior disappears when the variance of the social influence distribution is large enough. In all the cases studied, the change from conservative to liberal behavior is characterized by the emergence of conservative clusters, i.e., a closed knitted set of society members that follow a leader who agrees with the social status quo when the rule B is challenged. PMID:27575150

  2. Anisotropic opinion dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neirotti, Juan

    2016-07-01

    We consider the process of opinion formation in a society of interacting agents, where there is a set B of socially accepted rules. In this scenario, we observed that agents, represented by simple feed-forward, adaptive neural networks, may have a conservative attitude (mostly in agreement with B ) or liberal attitude (mostly in agreement with neighboring agents) depending on how much their opinions are influenced by their peers. The topology of the network representing the interaction of the society's members is determined by a graph, where the agents' properties are defined over the vertexes and the interagent interactions are defined over the bonds. The adaptability of the agents allows us to model the formation of opinions as an online learning process, where agents learn continuously as new information becomes available to the whole society (online learning). Through the application of statistical mechanics techniques we deduced a set of differential equations describing the dynamics of the system. We observed that by slowly varying the average peer influence in such a way that the agents attitude changes from conservative to liberal and back, the average social opinion develops a hysteresis cycle. Such hysteretic behavior disappears when the variance of the social influence distribution is large enough. In all the cases studied, the change from conservative to liberal behavior is characterized by the emergence of conservative clusters, i.e., a closed knitted set of society members that follow a leader who agrees with the social status quo when the rule B is challenged.

  3. The Role of mTOR Inhibitors in the Treatment of Patients with Tuberous Sclerosis Complex: Evidence-based and Expert Opinions.

    PubMed

    Curatolo, Paolo; Bjørnvold, Marit; Dill, Patricia E; Ferreira, José Carlos; Feucht, Martha; Hertzberg, Christoph; Jansen, Anna; Jóźwiak, Sergiusz; Kingswood, J Christopher; Kotulska, Katarzyna; Macaya, Alfons; Moavero, Romina; Nabbout, Rima; Zonnenberg, Bernard A

    2016-04-01

    Tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) is a genetic disorder arising from mutations in the TSC1 or TSC2 genes. The resulting over-activation of the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) signalling pathway leaves patients with TSC susceptible to the growth of non-malignant tumours in multiple organs. Previously, surgery was the main therapeutic option for TSC. However, pharmacological therapy with mTOR inhibitors such as everolimus and sirolimus is now emerging as an alternate approach. Everolimus and sirolimus have already been shown to be effective in treating subependymal giant cell astrocytoma (SEGA) and renal angiomyolipoma (AML), and everolimus is currently being evaluated in treating TSC-related epilepsy. In November 2013 a group of European experts convened to discuss the current options and practical considerations for treating various manifestations of TSC. This article provides evidence-based recommendations for the treatment of SEGA, TSC-related epilepsy and renal AML, with a focus on where mTOR inhibitor therapy may be considered alongside other treatment options. Safety considerations regarding mTOR inhibitor therapy are also reviewed. With evidence of beneficial effects in neurological and non-neurological TSC manifestations, mTOR inhibitors may represent a systemic treatment for TSC. PMID:26927950

  4. Regulatory acceptance and use of 3R models for pharmaceuticals and chemicals: expert opinions on the state of affairs and the way forward.

    PubMed

    Schiffelers, Marie-Jeanne W A; Blaauboer, Bas J; Bakker, Wieger E; Beken, Sonja; Hendriksen, Coenraad F M; Koëter, Herman B W M; Krul, Cyrille

    2014-06-01

    Pharmaceuticals and chemicals are subjected to regulatory safety testing accounting for approximately 25% of laboratory animal use in Europe. This testing meets various objections and has led to the development of a range of 3R models to Replace, Reduce or Refine the animal models. However, these models must overcome many barriers before being accepted for regulatory risk management purposes. This paper describes the barriers and drivers and options to optimize this acceptance process as identified by two expert panels, one on pharmaceuticals and one on chemicals. To untangle the complex acceptance process, the multilevel perspective on technology transitions is applied. This perspective defines influences at the micro-, meso- and macro level which need alignment to induce regulatory acceptance of a 3R model. This paper displays that there are many similar mechanisms within both sectors that prevent 3R models from becoming accepted for regulatory risk assessment and management. Shared barriers include the uncertainty about the value of the new 3R models (micro level), the lack of harmonization of regulatory requirements and acceptance criteria (meso level) and the high levels of risk aversion (macro level). In optimizing the process commitment, communication, cooperation and coordination are identified as critical drivers.

  5. Zurich Consensus: German Expert Opinion on the St. Gallen Votes on 15 March 2009 (11th International Conference at St. Gallen: Primary Therapy of Early Breast Cancer)

    PubMed Central

    Beckmann, Matthias W.; Blohmer, Jens-Uwe; Costa, Serban-Dan; Diedrich, Klaus; Diel, Ingo; Eiermann, Wolfgang; Friese, Klaus; Gerber, Bernd; Harbeck, Nadia; Hilfrich, Joern; Janni, Wolfgang; Jaenicke, Fritz; Jonat, Walter; Kaufmann, Manfred; Kiechle, Marion; Koehler, Uwe; Kreienberg, Rolf; von Minckwitz, Gunter; Moebus, Volker; Nitz, Ulrike; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Thomssen, Christoph; Wallwiener, Diethelm

    2009-01-01

    Summary A German working group of 23 breast cancer experts discussed the results from the vote at this year's St. Gallen Consensus Conference on Primary Therapy for Early Breast Cancer (March 11–14, 2009) and came up with some concrete recommendations for day-to-day therapeutic decisions in Germany. Due the fact that the concept of the St. Gallen Consensus Conference merely allows for a minimal consensus, the objective of the working group was to provide practice-related recommendations for day-to-day clinical decisions in Germany. One area of emphasis at St. Gallen was tumor biology as a starting point for reaching individual therapeutic decisions. Intensive discussion was necessary with respect to the clinical relevance of predictive and prognostic factors. A new addition to the area of systemic therapy was a first-ever discussion of the adjuvant administration of bisphosponates and the fact that therapy with trastuzumab in HER2 overexpressing breast cancer has been defined as the standard for neoadjuvant therapy. The value of taxanes as a component of (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy as well as the value of aromatase inhibitors for the endocrine adjuvant treatment of postmenopausal patients were affirmed. PMID:21049070

  6. Colleagues as Change Agents: How Department Networks and Opinion Leaders Influence Teaching at a Single Research University.

    PubMed

    Andrews, T C; Conaway, E P; Zhao, J; Dolan, E L

    2016-01-01

    Relationships with colleagues have the potential to be a source of support for faculty to make meaningful change in how they teach, but the impact of these relationships is poorly understood. We used a mixed-methods approach to investigate the characteristics of faculty who provide colleagues with teaching resources and facilitate change in teaching, how faculty influence one another. Our exploratory investigation was informed by social network theory and research on the impact of opinion leaders within organizations. We used surveys and interviews to examine collegial interactions about undergraduate teaching in life sciences departments at one research university. Each department included discipline-based education researchers (DBERs). Quantitative and qualitative analyses indicate that DBERs promote changes in teaching to a greater degree than other departmental colleagues. The influence of DBERs derives, at least partly, from a perception that they have unique professional expertise in education. DBERs facilitated change through coteaching, offering ready and approachable access to education research, and providing teaching training and mentoring. Faculty who had participated in a team based-teaching professional development program were also credited with providing more support for teaching than nonparticipants. Further research will be necessary to determine whether these results generalize beyond the studied institution.

  7. Colleagues as Change Agents: How Department Networks and Opinion Leaders Influence Teaching at a Single Research University

    PubMed Central

    Andrews, T. C.; Conaway, E. P.; Zhao, J.; Dolan, E. L.

    2016-01-01

    Relationships with colleagues have the potential to be a source of support for faculty to make meaningful change in how they teach, but the impact of these relationships is poorly understood. We used a mixed-methods approach to investigate the characteristics of faculty who provide colleagues with teaching resources and facilitate change in teaching, how faculty influence one another. Our exploratory investigation was informed by social network theory and research on the impact of opinion leaders within organizations. We used surveys and interviews to examine collegial interactions about undergraduate teaching in life sciences departments at one research university. Each department included discipline-based education researchers (DBERs). Quantitative and qualitative analyses indicate that DBERs promote changes in teaching to a greater degree than other departmental colleagues. The influence of DBERs derives, at least partly, from a perception that they have unique professional expertise in education. DBERs facilitated change through coteaching, offering ready and approachable access to education research, and providing teaching training and mentoring. Faculty who had participated in a team based–teaching professional development program were also credited with providing more support for teaching than nonparticipants. Further research will be necessary to determine whether these results generalize beyond the studied institution. PMID:27174582

  8. Colleagues as Change Agents: How Department Networks and Opinion Leaders Influence Teaching at a Single Research University.

    PubMed

    Andrews, T C; Conaway, E P; Zhao, J; Dolan, E L

    2016-01-01

    Relationships with colleagues have the potential to be a source of support for faculty to make meaningful change in how they teach, but the impact of these relationships is poorly understood. We used a mixed-methods approach to investigate the characteristics of faculty who provide colleagues with teaching resources and facilitate change in teaching, how faculty influence one another. Our exploratory investigation was informed by social network theory and research on the impact of opinion leaders within organizations. We used surveys and interviews to examine collegial interactions about undergraduate teaching in life sciences departments at one research university. Each department included discipline-based education researchers (DBERs). Quantitative and qualitative analyses indicate that DBERs promote changes in teaching to a greater degree than other departmental colleagues. The influence of DBERs derives, at least partly, from a perception that they have unique professional expertise in education. DBERs facilitated change through coteaching, offering ready and approachable access to education research, and providing teaching training and mentoring. Faculty who had participated in a team based-teaching professional development program were also credited with providing more support for teaching than nonparticipants. Further research will be necessary to determine whether these results generalize beyond the studied institution. PMID:27174582

  9. Public authority control strategy for opinion evolution in social networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Xi; Xiong, Xi; Zhang, Minghong; Li, Wei

    2016-08-01

    This paper addresses the need to deal with and control public opinion and rumors. Existing strategies to control public opinion include degree, random, and adaptive bridge control strategies. In this paper, we use the HK model to present a public opinion control strategy based on public authority (PA). This means utilizing the influence of expert or high authority individuals whose opinions we control to obtain the optimum effect in the shortest time possible and thus reach a consensus of public opinion. Public authority (PA) is only influenced by individuals' attributes (age, economic status, and education level) and not their degree distribution; hence, in this paper, we assume that PA complies with two types of public authority distribution (normal and power-law). According to the proposed control strategy, our experiment is based on random, degree, and public authority control strategies in three different social networks (small-world, scale-free, and random) and we compare and analyze the strategies in terms of convergence time (T), final number of controlled agents (C), and comprehensive efficiency (E). We find that different network topologies and the distribution of the PA in the network can influence the final controlling effect. While the effect of PA strategy differs in different network topology structures, all structures achieve comprehensive efficiency with any kind of public authority distribution in any network. Our findings are consistent with several current sociological phenomena and show that in the process of public opinion/rumor control, considerable attention should be paid to high authority individuals.

  10. Public authority control strategy for opinion evolution in social networks.

    PubMed

    Chen, Xi; Xiong, Xi; Zhang, Minghong; Li, Wei

    2016-08-01

    This paper addresses the need to deal with and control public opinion and rumors. Existing strategies to control public opinion include degree, random, and adaptive bridge control strategies. In this paper, we use the HK model to present a public opinion control strategy based on public authority (PA). This means utilizing the influence of expert or high authority individuals whose opinions we control to obtain the optimum effect in the shortest time possible and thus reach a consensus of public opinion. Public authority (PA) is only influenced by individuals' attributes (age, economic status, and education level) and not their degree distribution; hence, in this paper, we assume that PA complies with two types of public authority distribution (normal and power-law). According to the proposed control strategy, our experiment is based on random, degree, and public authority control strategies in three different social networks (small-world, scale-free, and random) and we compare and analyze the strategies in terms of convergence time (T), final number of controlled agents (C), and comprehensive efficiency (E). We find that different network topologies and the distribution of the PA in the network can influence the final controlling effect. While the effect of PA strategy differs in different network topology structures, all structures achieve comprehensive efficiency with any kind of public authority distribution in any network. Our findings are consistent with several current sociological phenomena and show that in the process of public opinion/rumor control, considerable attention should be paid to high authority individuals. PMID:27586601

  11. Public authority control strategy for opinion evolution in social networks.

    PubMed

    Chen, Xi; Xiong, Xi; Zhang, Minghong; Li, Wei

    2016-08-01

    This paper addresses the need to deal with and control public opinion and rumors. Existing strategies to control public opinion include degree, random, and adaptive bridge control strategies. In this paper, we use the HK model to present a public opinion control strategy based on public authority (PA). This means utilizing the influence of expert or high authority individuals whose opinions we control to obtain the optimum effect in the shortest time possible and thus reach a consensus of public opinion. Public authority (PA) is only influenced by individuals' attributes (age, economic status, and education level) and not their degree distribution; hence, in this paper, we assume that PA complies with two types of public authority distribution (normal and power-law). According to the proposed control strategy, our experiment is based on random, degree, and public authority control strategies in three different social networks (small-world, scale-free, and random) and we compare and analyze the strategies in terms of convergence time (T), final number of controlled agents (C), and comprehensive efficiency (E). We find that different network topologies and the distribution of the PA in the network can influence the final controlling effect. While the effect of PA strategy differs in different network topology structures, all structures achieve comprehensive efficiency with any kind of public authority distribution in any network. Our findings are consistent with several current sociological phenomena and show that in the process of public opinion/rumor control, considerable attention should be paid to high authority individuals.

  12. Turbiscan lab expert analysis of the stability of ethosomes and ultradeformable liposomes containing a bilayer fluidizing agent.

    PubMed

    Celia, Christian; Trapasso, Elena; Cosco, Donato; Paolino, Donatella; Fresta, Massimo

    2009-08-01

    The stability of vesicular drug carriers containing linoleic acid, as a model of bilayer fluidizing agent, was evaluated using a Turbiscan optical analyzer, an innovative analytical instrument able to determine the long-time stability of colloidal systems. Ethosomes and ultradeformable liposomes were prepared using Phospholipon 100G as the lecithin component, while ethanol and sodium cholate were used for the specific preparation of ethosomes and ultradeformable liposomes, respectively. The advantages of the Turbiscan optical analyzer are: (i) its ability to measure reversible (creaming and sedimentation) and irreversible (coalescence and segregation) destabilization phenomena directly in the sample without any dilution and (ii) to detect these phenomena much earlier and easier than other apparatuses. Turbiscan data showed that both colloidal vesicles demonstrate a good stability during the 3h of the experiment. No modification of Turbiscan backscattering profiles of colloidal suspensions occurred when different amounts of linoleic acid were used to prepare ethosomes and ultradeformable liposomes. No coalescence, sedimentation, flocculation or clarification occurred. The results were very encouraging and confirmed the fact that the Turbiscan optical analyzer can be used to study the stability of colloidal formulations even in the presence of deformable agents.

  13. Turbiscan lab expert analysis of the stability of ethosomes and ultradeformable liposomes containing a bilayer fluidizing agent.

    PubMed

    Celia, Christian; Trapasso, Elena; Cosco, Donato; Paolino, Donatella; Fresta, Massimo

    2009-08-01

    The stability of vesicular drug carriers containing linoleic acid, as a model of bilayer fluidizing agent, was evaluated using a Turbiscan optical analyzer, an innovative analytical instrument able to determine the long-time stability of colloidal systems. Ethosomes and ultradeformable liposomes were prepared using Phospholipon 100G as the lecithin component, while ethanol and sodium cholate were used for the specific preparation of ethosomes and ultradeformable liposomes, respectively. The advantages of the Turbiscan optical analyzer are: (i) its ability to measure reversible (creaming and sedimentation) and irreversible (coalescence and segregation) destabilization phenomena directly in the sample without any dilution and (ii) to detect these phenomena much earlier and easier than other apparatuses. Turbiscan data showed that both colloidal vesicles demonstrate a good stability during the 3h of the experiment. No modification of Turbiscan backscattering profiles of colloidal suspensions occurred when different amounts of linoleic acid were used to prepare ethosomes and ultradeformable liposomes. No coalescence, sedimentation, flocculation or clarification occurred. The results were very encouraging and confirmed the fact that the Turbiscan optical analyzer can be used to study the stability of colloidal formulations even in the presence of deformable agents. PMID:19376689

  14. Measuring Iranian women's sexual behaviors: Expert opinion

    PubMed Central

    Ghorashi, Zohreh; Merghati-Khoei, Effat; Yousefy, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    The cultural compatibility of sexually related instruments is problematic because the contexts from which the concepts and meanings were extracted may be significantly different from related contexts in a different society. This paper describes the instruments that have been used to assess sexual behaviors, primarily in Western contexts. Then, based on the instruments’ working definition of ‘sexual behavior’ and their theoretical frameworks, we will (1) discuss the applicability or cultural compatibility of existing instruments targeting women's sexual behaviors within an Iranian context, and (2) suggest criteria for sexually related tools applicable in Iranian settings. Iranian women's sexual scripts may compromise the existing instruments’ compatibility. Suggested criteria are as follows: understanding, language of sexuality, ethics and morality. Therefore, developing a culturally comprehensive measure that can adequately examine Iranian women's sexual behaviors is needed. PMID:25250346

  15. [Aspects of expert opinions of avulsion fractures].

    PubMed

    Schröter, F

    2016-03-01

    The apophyses as secondary ossification centers are connected with the bone by cartilage. During the growth phase of puberty, the apophyseal plate is a mechanical weak spot. Especially, apophyses in the hip and pelvic area are exposed to considerable tensile and sheer stresses due to the strong muscles which are inserted here. The frequency of injuries to the apophyses correlates with the extent of sporting activities. For athletes participating in "Youth Train for the Olympics", this is the most common injury of all. Most often, the apophysis of the rectus femoris muscle is affected at the anterior inferior iliac spine. In adults, after complete ossification of the apophyseal plate such injuries are rare. However, in a very unusual mechanism of injury with maximum forced hip flexion and simultaneous maximum knee extension, avulsions of the ischial tuberosity are observed in adults. During the causality test-especially in the legal area of statutory accident insurance-the question is always whether the alleged course of events has to be regarded as a legally significant (partial) cause or if a longer period of time has been involved, so that the resulting morbid apophysis detachment was predominately due to fate, in which the alleged event must be interpreted as legally immaterial. PMID:26924516

  16. The forensic expert witness--an issue of competency.

    PubMed

    Hiss, Jehuda; Freund, Maya; Kahana, Tzipi

    2007-05-24

    Scientists submitting expert opinions within the legal system are expected to be knowledgeable in the forensic aspects of their particular science, as well as to be ethical and unbiased. Scientists are seldom able to decline a request to provide an expert opinion in their field, even when their forensic expertise is minimal. The competence of scientists providing expert opinions in forensic cases is reviewed here. Three examples of the perils of uninformed "expertise" in forensic biology, medicine and anthropology are presented.

  17. Intelligent agent support for automated radiology exam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shang, Yi; Popescu, Mihail

    2000-10-01

    A difficult problem in automatic medical image understanding is that for every image type such as x-ray and every body organ such as heart, there exist specific solutions that do not allow for generalization. Just collecting all the specific solutions will not achieve the vision of a computerized physician. To address this problem, we propose an intelligent agent approach that is based on agent-oriented programming is that it combines the benefits of object-oriented programming and expert system. For radiology image understanding, we present a multi- agent system that is composed of two major types of intelligent agents: radiologist agents and patient agents. A patient agent asks for multiple opinions from radiologists agents in interpreting a given set of images and then integrates the opinions. A radiologist agent decomposes the image recognition task into smaller problems that are solved collectively by multiple intelligent sub-agents. Finally, we present a preliminary implementation and running examples of the multi-agent system.

  18. 29 CFR 18.702 - Testimony by experts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... OF ADMINISTRATIVE LAW JUDGES Rules of Evidence Opinions and Expert Testimony § 18.702 Testimony by... to understand the evidence or to determine a fact in issue, a witness qualified as an expert...

  19. 29 CFR 18.704 - Opinion on ultimate issue.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Opinion on ultimate issue. 18.704 Section 18.704 Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE FOR ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS BEFORE THE OFFICE OF ADMINISTRATIVE LAW JUDGES Rules of Evidence Opinions and Expert Testimony § 18.704 Opinion...

  20. The dynamics of opinion in hierarchical organizations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laguna, M. F.; Risau Gusman, S.; Abramson, G.; Gonçalves, S.; Iglesias, J. R.

    2005-06-01

    We study the mutual influence of authority and persuasion in the flow of opinions. We describe a simple model with no social mobility, where each agent belongs to a class in the hierarchy and has also a persuasion capability. Agents use the force of its persuasion to propagate their opinions; however a high-rank agent can also use its authority to impose its opinion on other ones. The model is studied analytically within a mean field approximation and by means of numerical simulations. In the case of a three authority level hierarchy the agreement between the two approaches is excellent. We obtain a phase diagram identifying the relative frequency of the prevailing opinions, and find that the stratum where the dominant opinion arises from is strongly dependent on the relative population of each hierarchy level. The time evolution shows that conflicting opinions polarize after a short transient.

  1. The CHESS method of forensic opinion formulation: striving to checkmate bias.

    PubMed

    Wills, Cheryl D

    2008-01-01

    Expert witnesses use various methods to render dispassionate opinions. Some forensic psychiatrists acknowledge bias up front; other experts use principles endorsed by the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law or other professional organizations. This article introduces CHESS, a systematic method for reducing bias in expert opinions. The CHESS method involves identifying a Claim or preliminary opinion; developing a Hierarchy of supporting evidence; examining the evidence for weaknesses or areas of Exposure; Studying and revising the claim and supporting evidence; and Synthesizing a revised opinion. Case examples illustrate how the CHESS method may help experts reduce bias while strengthening opinions. The method also helps experts prepare for court by reminding them to anticipate questions that may be asked during cross-examination. The CHESS method provides a framework for formulating, revising, and identifying limitations of opinions, which allows experts to incorporate neutrality into forensic opinions.

  2. Landmark opinions

    SciTech Connect

    Julian Levy

    2007-08-15

    On April 2, 2007, the U.S. Supreme Court issued two landmark opinions affecting the regulation of air quality in the United States. The first addressed one facet of what constitutes a modification under New Source Review (NSR) and the second addressed the issue of global climate change, specifically carbon dioxide emissions. For this month's issue, EM invited five leaders in the field of air quality to give their perspectives on these court opinions to gauge what they might mean for future air quality regulations. Titles of the five features are: Two landmark interpretations of the Clean Air Act: EPA authority to regulate greenhouse gases and increases in annual emissions trigger NSR (pp 6-10); Court examines EPA's interpretation of the Clean Air Act (pp 11,13); New Jersey: a state's perspective (pp 14-15); Supreme Court delivers historic environmental rulings (pp 17-18); and an industry perspective on the Supreme Court rulings (pp 20-21).

  3. 12 CFR 1081.210 - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... material outside the scope of fair rebuttal is presented, a party may file a motion not later than five... witness has testified or sought to testify as an expert at trial or hearing, or by deposition within the... expert whose opinions may be presented at trial. Unless otherwise ordered by the hearing officer,...

  4. 32 CFR 516.52 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... States Has An Interest § 516.52 Expert witnesses. Requests for present or former DA personnel as expert or opinion witnesses from DOJ or other attorneys representing the United States will be referred to Litigation Division unless the request involves a matter that has been delegated by Litigation Division to...

  5. 32 CFR 516.52 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... States Has An Interest § 516.52 Expert witnesses. Requests for present or former DA personnel as expert or opinion witnesses from DOJ or other attorneys representing the United States will be referred to Litigation Division unless the request involves a matter that has been delegated by Litigation Division to...

  6. How Expert Advice Influences Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Meshi, Dar; Biele, Guido; Korn, Christoph W.; Heekeren, Hauke R.

    2012-01-01

    People often use expert advice when making decisions in our society, but how we are influenced by this advice has yet to be understood. To address this, using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we provided expert and novice advice to participants during an estimation task. Participants reported that they valued expert advice more than novice advice, and activity in the ventral striatum correlated with this valuation, even before decisions with the advice were made. When using advice, participants compared their initial opinion to their advisor’s opinion. This comparison, termed the “opinion difference”, influenced advice utilization and was represented in reward-sensitive brain regions. Finally, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex integrated both the size of the opinion difference and the advisor’s level of expertise, and average activity in this area correlated with mean advice utilization across participants. Taken together, these findings provide neural evidence for how advice engenders behavioral change during the decision-making process. PMID:23185425

  7. Expert Biogeographers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bednarski, Marsha

    2006-01-01

    This article describes an alternative way of teaching about biomes by having students become expert biogeographers. In order to become experts students need to first find out what a biogeographer does. Doing an online search lets students find out for themselves what the responsibilities are of people who work in this field. A good place to visit…

  8. Collective opinion formation on fluctuating networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ngampruetikorn, Vudtiwat; Stephens, Greg

    Thanks to the advent of online social networks, not only are we more connected than ever but we are also able to design and maintain our own social networks. An insight into this phenomenon will be key to understanding modern societies. To this end, we argue that active network maintenance exposes individuals to selective exposure (preference for agreeing information sources) and we explore how this could affect the structure of social networks and collective opinion formation. More technically, we investigate opinion dynamics on a complex network with fast stochastic rewiring. We show that selective exposure while inducing segregation of agents with different opinions, stabilises consensus state regardless of opinion update rules. We argue further that selective exposure can lead to a shorter time to consensus. The time to consensus has non-trivial dependence on the magnitude of selective exposure. Moreover, we find for some opinion updating rules, selective exposure can increase the lifetime of opinion segregation (polarisation of opinions).

  9. Expert Seeker

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fernandez, Becerra

    2003-01-01

    Expert Seeker is a computer program of the knowledge-management-system (KMS) type that falls within the category of expertise-locator systems. The main goal of the KMS system implemented by Expert Seeker is to organize and distribute knowledge of who are the domain experts within and without a given institution, company, or other organization. The intent in developing this KMS was to enable the re-use of organizational knowledge and provide a methodology for querying existing information (including structured, semistructured, and unstructured information) in a way that could help identify organizational experts. More specifically, Expert Seeker was developed to make it possible, by use of an intranet, to do any or all of the following: Assist an employee in identifying who has the skills needed for specific projects and to determine whether the experts so identified are available. Assist managers in identifying employees who may need training opportunities. Assist managers in determining what expertise is lost when employees retire or otherwise leave. Facilitate the development of new ways of identifying opportunities for innovation and minimization of duplicated efforts. Assist employees in achieving competitive advantages through the application of knowledge-management concepts and related systems. Assist external organizations in requesting speakers for specific engagements or determining from whom they might be able to request help via electronic mail. Help foster an environment of collaboration for rapid development in today's environment, in which it is increasingly necessary to assemble teams of experts from government, universities, research laboratories, and industries, to quickly solve problems anytime, anywhere. Make experts more visible. Provide a central repository of information about employees, including information that, heretofore, has typically not been captured by the human-resources systems (e.g., information about past projects, patents, or

  10. Public opinion.

    PubMed

    Holden, A

    2013-04-01

    This opinion-based article aims to highlight the worrying decline in support for dental public health as a specialty. Not only is this specialty important for its role in commissioning services, it is crucial for the identification of vulnerable groups in society and ensuring dental services are acceptable and assessable for these populations. Dental public health also addresses the social determinants of health in its approach, acknowledging the impact of these in perpetuating inequalities and looking for multisectoral approaches to their management. This article also looks at the lack of appreciation for these determinants in dental foundation training and how a change in the structure of the programme could both address this and the current shortage of places.

  11. A Follow-Up Web-Based Survey: Test and Measurement Expert Opinions on the Psychometric Properties of Out-of-Level Tests. Out-of-Level Testing Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bielinski, John; Minnema, Jane; Thurlow, Martha

    A Web-based survey of 25 experts in testing theory and large-scale assessment examined the utility of out-of-level testing for making decisions about students and schools. Survey respondents were given a series of scenarios and asked to judge the degree to which out-of-level testing would affect the reliability and validity of test scores within…

  12. Opinion formation on social media: An empirical approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiong, Fei; Liu, Yun

    2014-03-01

    Opinion exchange models aim to describe the process of public opinion formation, seeking to uncover the intrinsic mechanism in social systems; however, the model results are seldom empirically justified using large-scale actual data. Online social media provide an abundance of data on opinion interaction, but the question of whether opinion models are suitable for characterizing opinion formation on social media still requires exploration. We collect a large amount of user interaction information from an actual social network, i.e., Twitter, and analyze the dynamic sentiments of users about different topics to investigate realistic opinion evolution. We find two nontrivial results from these data. First, public opinion often evolves to an ordered state in which one opinion predominates, but not to complete consensus. Second, agents are reluctant to change their opinions, and the distribution of the number of individual opinion changes follows a power law. Then, we suggest a model in which agents take external actions to express their internal opinions according to their activity. Conversely, individual actions can influence the activity and opinions of neighbors. The probability that an agent changes its opinion depends nonlinearly on the fraction of opponents who have taken an action. Simulation results show user action patterns and the evolution of public opinion in the model coincide with the empirical data. For different nonlinear parameters, the system may approach different regimes. A large decay in individual activity slows down the dynamics, but causes more ordering in the system.

  13. Opinion formation on social media: an empirical approach.

    PubMed

    Xiong, Fei; Liu, Yun

    2014-03-01

    Opinion exchange models aim to describe the process of public opinion formation, seeking to uncover the intrinsic mechanism in social systems; however, the model results are seldom empirically justified using large-scale actual data. Online social media provide an abundance of data on opinion interaction, but the question of whether opinion models are suitable for characterizing opinion formation on social media still requires exploration. We collect a large amount of user interaction information from an actual social network, i.e., Twitter, and analyze the dynamic sentiments of users about different topics to investigate realistic opinion evolution. We find two nontrivial results from these data. First, public opinion often evolves to an ordered state in which one opinion predominates, but not to complete consensus. Second, agents are reluctant to change their opinions, and the distribution of the number of individual opinion changes follows a power law. Then, we suggest a model in which agents take external actions to express their internal opinions according to their activity. Conversely, individual actions can influence the activity and opinions of neighbors. The probability that an agent changes its opinion depends nonlinearly on the fraction of opponents who have taken an action. Simulation results show user action patterns and the evolution of public opinion in the model coincide with the empirical data. For different nonlinear parameters, the system may approach different regimes. A large decay in individual activity slows down the dynamics, but causes more ordering in the system. PMID:24697392

  14. Opinion formation on social media: an empirical approach.

    PubMed

    Xiong, Fei; Liu, Yun

    2014-03-01

    Opinion exchange models aim to describe the process of public opinion formation, seeking to uncover the intrinsic mechanism in social systems; however, the model results are seldom empirically justified using large-scale actual data. Online social media provide an abundance of data on opinion interaction, but the question of whether opinion models are suitable for characterizing opinion formation on social media still requires exploration. We collect a large amount of user interaction information from an actual social network, i.e., Twitter, and analyze the dynamic sentiments of users about different topics to investigate realistic opinion evolution. We find two nontrivial results from these data. First, public opinion often evolves to an ordered state in which one opinion predominates, but not to complete consensus. Second, agents are reluctant to change their opinions, and the distribution of the number of individual opinion changes follows a power law. Then, we suggest a model in which agents take external actions to express their internal opinions according to their activity. Conversely, individual actions can influence the activity and opinions of neighbors. The probability that an agent changes its opinion depends nonlinearly on the fraction of opponents who have taken an action. Simulation results show user action patterns and the evolution of public opinion in the model coincide with the empirical data. For different nonlinear parameters, the system may approach different regimes. A large decay in individual activity slows down the dynamics, but causes more ordering in the system.

  15. Future Challenges in Higher Education--Bologna Experts' Community Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yemini, Miri

    2012-01-01

    This work presents results from systematic analysis of the challenges for the future of higher education in European and neighboring countries as it was extracted from the Bologna experts and Higher Education Reform experts' opinions. Opinions of more than 100 experts from 35 countries were documented and analyzed. Significant differences in the…

  16. The Same Middle East Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) yet Different Outbreak Patterns and Public Health Impacts on the Far East Expert Opinion from the Rapid Response Team of the Republic of Korea.

    PubMed

    2015-12-01

    A Middle East Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak, the largest outbreak outside the Middle East in 2012, occurred in the Republic of Korea and resulted in a large number of cases, with 186 infected people, including 38 deaths. A Rapid Response Team (RRT) was appointed after a request from the Korean government on June 8, 2015 calling for specialists to manage and control the MERS-CoV outbreak. This report presents the opinion of the RRT who worked to manage this healthcare-associated MERS-CoV outbreak in Korea.

  17. The Same Middle East Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) yet Different Outbreak Patterns and Public Health Impacts on the Far East Expert Opinion from the Rapid Response Team of the Republic of Korea

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    A Middle East Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak, the largest outbreak outside the Middle East in 2012, occurred in the Republic of Korea and resulted in a large number of cases, with 186 infected people, including 38 deaths. A Rapid Response Team (RRT) was appointed after a request from the Korean government on June 8, 2015 calling for specialists to manage and control the MERS-CoV outbreak. This report presents the opinion of the RRT who worked to manage this healthcare-associated MERS-CoV outbreak in Korea. PMID:26788408

  18. An opinion diffusion model with decision-making groups: The influence of the opinion's acceptability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Zhichao; Xiong, Yang; Xu, Yiwen

    2016-11-01

    An opinion dynamic model with decision-making groups was proposed to study the process of adopting new opinions or ideas by individuals. The opinion's acceptability is introduced to distinguish the general character of different opinions. The simulation results on a free-scale network demonstrate that when two opinions have similar acceptability, the opinion supported by more decision-making groups in the beginning will eventually win the support of more agents, whereas an opinion supported by fewer decision-making groups in the beginning may be supported by the majority at the end only if it has better acceptability, and if the tolerance threshold of the society is higher than a specific value.

  19. Expert Systems: What Is an Expert System?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duval, Beverly K.; Main, Linda

    1994-01-01

    Describes expert systems and discusses their use in libraries. Highlights include parts of an expert system; expert system shells; an example of how to build an expert system; a bibliography of 34 sources of information on expert systems in libraries; and a list of 10 expert system shells used in libraries. (Contains five references.) (LRW)

  20. 29 CFR 18.701 - Opinion testimony by lay witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Opinion testimony by lay witnesses. 18.701 Section 18.701 Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE FOR ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS BEFORE THE OFFICE OF ADMINISTRATIVE LAW JUDGES Rules of Evidence Opinions and Expert Testimony §...

  1. Legal Decisions and Opinions in Pollution Cases

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hills, John P.

    1976-01-01

    When dealing with the "frontier of scientific knowledge" and questions of public health, United States courts are waiving traditional burdens of proof, giving increased weight to expert opinions and/or lowering their standard of necessary proof. Recent cases involving asbestos, pesticides, lead in gasoline, and vinyl chlorides are discussed. (BT)

  2. Expert judgment and expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Mumpower, J.; Phillips, L.D.; Renn, O.; Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1987-01-01

    This volume collects researchers from the fields of psychology, decision analysis, and artificial intelligence. The purposes were to assess similarities, differences, and complementarities among the three approaches to the study of expert judgment; to evaluate their relative strengths and weaknesses; and to propose profitable linkages between them. Each of the papers in the present volume is directed toward one or more of these goals.

  3. Choice Shift in Opinion Network Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gabbay, Michael

    Choice shift is a phenomenon associated with small group dynamics whereby group discussion causes group members to shift their opinions in a more extreme direction so that the mean post-discussion opinion exceeds the mean pre-discussion opinion. Also known as group polarization, choice shift is a robust experimental phenomenon and has been well-studied within social psychology. In opinion network models, shifts toward extremism are typically produced by the presence of stubborn agents at the extremes of the opinion axis, whose opinions are much more resistant to change than moderate agents. However, we present a model in which choice shift can arise without the assumption of stubborn agents; the model evolves member opinions and uncertainties using coupled nonlinear differential equations. In addition, we briefly describe the results of a recent experiment conducted involving online group discussion concerning the outcome of National Football League games are described. The model predictions concerning the effects of network structure, disagreement level, and team choice (favorite or underdog) are in accord with the experimental results. This research was funded by the Office of Naval Research and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

  4. Opinion formation of free speech on the directed social network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, Jiongming; Ma, Hongxu; Liu, Baohong; Li, Qi

    2014-12-01

    A dynamical model with continuous opinion is proposed to study how the speech order and the topology of directed social network affect the opinion formation of free speech. In the model, agents express their opinions one by one with random order (RO) or probability order (PO), other agents paying attentions to the speaking agent, receive provider's opinion, update their opinions and then express their new opinions in their turns. It is proved that with the same agent j repeats its opinion more, other agents who pay their attentions to j and include j's opinion in their confidence level at initial time, will continue approaching j's opinion. Simulation results reveal that on directed scale-free network: (1) the model for PO forms fewer opinion clusters, larger maximum cluster (MC), smaller standard deviation (SD), and needs less waiting time to reach a middle level of consensus than RO; (2) as the parameter of scale-free degree distribution decreases or the confidence level increases, the results often get better for both speech orders; (3) the differences between PO and RO get smaller as the size of network decreases.

  5. [Medical expert assessment in psychiatry].

    PubMed

    Pietzcker, A

    1996-11-01

    Especially regarding two respects, the psychiatric expert assessment differs from the expert assessment of other medical specialties: (1) No laboratory tests or technical equipment are available for the psychiatrist except for mental disturbances due to physical impacts such as brain injuries or intoxications. The psychiatrist depends on a carefully compiled case history and a differentiated psychodiagnostic. This may lead to a wrong assessment due to a lack of objectiveness. (2) There are a lot of legal areas where only the psychiatric or psychological expert opinion is required: i.e., the question of criminal responsibility during a trial, the assessment of legal capacity and the capability to will, for decisions about the custody of children etc. This is demonstrated with some cases as an example.

  6. Dual modeling of political opinion networks.

    PubMed

    Wang, R; Wang, Q A

    2011-09-01

    We present the result of a dual modeling of opinion networks. The model complements the agent-based opinion models by attaching to the social agent (voters) network a political opinion (party) network having its own intrinsic mechanisms of evolution. These two subnetworks form a global network, which can be either isolated from, or dependent on, the external influence. Basically, the evolution of the agent network includes link adding and deleting, with the opinion changes influenced by social validation, the political climate, the attractivity of the parties, and the interaction between them. The opinion network is initially composed of numerous nodes representing opinions or parties that are located on a one dimensional axis according to their political positions. The mechanism of evolution includes union, splitting, change of position, and attractivity, taking into account the pairwise node interaction decaying with node distance in power law. The global evolution ends in a stable distribution of the social agents over a quasistable and fluctuating stationary number of remaining parties. Empirical study on the lifetime distribution of numerous parties and vote results is carried out to verify numerical results.

  7. 29 CFR 18.702 - Testimony by experts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... experts. If scientific, technical, or other specialized knowledge will assist the judge as trier of fact... knowledge, skill, experience, training, or education, may testify thereto in the form of an opinion...

  8. 29 CFR 18.706 - Judge appointed experts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... OFFICE OF ADMINISTRATIVE LAW JUDGES Rules of Evidence Opinions and Expert Testimony § 18.706 Judge... fixed is payable from funds which may be provided by law in hearings involving just compensation...

  9. Comparison of hemostatic agents used in vascular surgery

    PubMed Central

    Vyas, Krishna S.; Saha, Sibu P.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Over the past 15 years, a wide range of agents have been developed for use in surgical procedures to achieve hemostasis. These agents can be divided into three broad categories: hemostats, sealants and adhesives. They vary widely related to their mechanism of action, composition, ease of application, adherence to wet or dry tissue, immunogenicity and cost. Areas covered This article focuses on the agents used in vascular surgery to achieve hemostasis; agents involved in clinical trials are also covered. Expert opinion When surgeons achieve rapid hemostasis, potential benefits include better visualization of the surgical area, shorter operative times, decreased requirement for transfusions, better management of an anticoagulated patient, decreased wound healing time and overall improvement in patient recovery time. The need for safe and efficacious hemostatic agents that can provide a range of benefits is clearly a significant surgical issue. PMID:24144261

  10. [Second medical opinions].

    PubMed

    Vashitz, Geva; Davidovitch, Nadav; Pliskin, Joseph S

    2011-02-01

    Second opinion is a decision-support tool for ratification or modification of a suggested treatment, by another physician. Second opinion may have a critical influence on the diagnosis, treatment and prognosis. The patient can benefit from treatment optimization and avoid unnecessary risks. The physician can benefit from less exposure to legal claims, and healthcare organizations can benefit from increased treatment, quality assurance and costs saving from unnecessary surgery and treatments. Nevertheless, injudicious use of this tool can provoke unnecessary medical costs. In recent years, many patients prefer to seek a second opinion on their disease and available treatments. Private and public insurance companies are trying to control surgery costs by urging and even demanding a second opinion before surgery. Although second opinions are common in medical practice, relatively little is known on this subject. Most of the studies reviewed in this article evaluated the clinical benefit of second opinions, the reasons patients seek a second opinion and the characteristics of these patients, as well as technological interventions to promote second opinions, and ethical or legal issues related to second opinions. Yet, there are opportunities for further studies about physicians attitudes and barriers towards second opinions, their effect on patient-physician communication and cost-effectiveness analyses of second opinions. Due to the relevance of second opinions for public heath, this review aims to summarize the current research on second opinions.

  11. Correlation between information diffusion and opinion evolution on social media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiong, Fei; Liu, Yun; Zhang, Zhenjiang

    2014-12-01

    Information diffusion and opinion evolution are often treated as two independent processes. Opinion models assume the topic reaches each agent and agents initially have their own ideas. In fact, the processes of information diffusion and opinion evolution often intertwine with each other. Whether the influence between these two processes plays a role in the system state is unclear. In this paper, we collected more than one million real data from a well-known social platform, and analysed large-scale user diffusion behaviour and opinion formation. We found that user inter-event time follows a two-scaling power-law distribution with two different power exponents. Public opinion stabilizes quickly and evolves toward the direction of convergence, but the consensus state is prevented by a few opponents. We propose a three-state opinion model accompanied by information diffusion. Agents form and exchange their opinions during information diffusion. Conversely, agents' opinions also influence their diffusion actions. Simulations show that the model with a correlation of the two processes produces similar statistical characteristics as empirical results. A fast epidemic process drives individual opinions to converge more obviously. Unlike previous epidemic models, the number of infected agents does not always increase with the update rate, but has a peak with an intermediate value of the rate.

  12. 12 CFR 1081.210 - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... material outside the scope of fair rebuttal is presented, a party may file a motion not later than five... witness has testified or sought to testify as an expert at trial or by deposition within the preceding... whose opinions may be presented at trial. Unless otherwise ordered by the hearing officer, a...

  13. Expert Concept Mapping Study on Mobile Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Borner, Dirk; Glahn, Christian; Stoyanov, Slavi; Kalz, Marco; Specht, Marcus

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The present paper introduces concept mapping as a structured participative conceptualization approach to identify clusters of ideas and opinions generated by experts within the domain of mobile learning. Utilizing this approach, the paper aims to contribute to a definition of key domain characteristics by identifying the main educational…

  14. Opinion Integration and Summarization

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lu, Yue

    2011-01-01

    As Web 2.0 applications become increasingly popular, more and more people express their opinions on the Web in various ways in real time. Such wide coverage of topics and abundance of users make the Web an extremely valuable source for mining people's opinions about all kinds of topics. However, since the opinions are usually expressed as…

  15. Discovering opinion leaders for medical topics using news articles

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Rapid identification of subject experts for medical topics helps in improving the implementation of discoveries by speeding the time to market drugs and aiding in clinical trial recruitment, etc. Identifying such people who influence opinion through social network analysis is gaining prominence. In this work, we explore how to combine named entity recognition from unstructured news articles with social network analysis to discover opinion leaders for a given medical topic. Methods We employed a Conditional Random Field algorithm to extract three categories of entities from health-related new articles: Person, Organization and Location. We used the latter two to disambiguate polysemy and synonymy for the person names, used simple rules to identify the subject experts, and then applied social network analysis techniques to discover the opinion leaders among them based on their media presence. A network was created by linking each pair of subject experts who are mentioned together in an article. The social network analysis metrics (including centrality metrics such as Betweenness, Closeness, Degree and Eigenvector) are used for ranking the subject experts based on their power in information flow. Results We extracted 734,204 person mentions from 147,528 news articles related to obesity from January 1, 2007 through July 22, 2010. Of these, 147,879 mentions have been marked as subject experts. The F-score of extracting person names is 88.5%. More than 80% of the subject experts who rank among top 20 in at least one of the metrics could be considered as opinion leaders in obesity. Conclusion The analysis of the network of subject experts with media presence revealed that an opinion leader might have fewer mentions in the news articles, but a high network centrality measure and vice-versa. Betweenness, Closeness and Degree centrality measures were shown to supplement frequency counts in the task of finding subject experts. Further, opinion leaders missed in

  16. False confessions, expert testimony, and admissibility.

    PubMed

    Watson, Clarence; Weiss, Kenneth J; Pouncey, Claire

    2010-01-01

    The confession of a criminal defendant serves as a prosecutor's most compelling piece of evidence during trial. Courts must preserve a defendant's constitutional right to a fair trial while upholding the judicial interests of presenting competent and reliable evidence to the jury. When a defendant seeks to challenge the validity of that confession through expert testimony, the prosecution often contests the admissibility of the expert's opinion. Depending on the content and methodology of the expert's opinion, testimony addressing the phenomenon of false confessions may or may not be admissible. This article outlines the scientific and epistemological bases of expert testimony on false confession, notes the obstacles facing its admissibility, and provides guidance to the expert in formulating opinions that will reach the judge or jury. We review the 2006 New Jersey Superior Court decision in State of New Jersey v. George King to illustrate what is involved in the admissibility of false-confession testimony and use the case as a starting point in developing a best-practice approach to working in this area. PMID:20542936

  17. False confessions, expert testimony, and admissibility.

    PubMed

    Watson, Clarence; Weiss, Kenneth J; Pouncey, Claire

    2010-01-01

    The confession of a criminal defendant serves as a prosecutor's most compelling piece of evidence during trial. Courts must preserve a defendant's constitutional right to a fair trial while upholding the judicial interests of presenting competent and reliable evidence to the jury. When a defendant seeks to challenge the validity of that confession through expert testimony, the prosecution often contests the admissibility of the expert's opinion. Depending on the content and methodology of the expert's opinion, testimony addressing the phenomenon of false confessions may or may not be admissible. This article outlines the scientific and epistemological bases of expert testimony on false confession, notes the obstacles facing its admissibility, and provides guidance to the expert in formulating opinions that will reach the judge or jury. We review the 2006 New Jersey Superior Court decision in State of New Jersey v. George King to illustrate what is involved in the admissibility of false-confession testimony and use the case as a starting point in developing a best-practice approach to working in this area.

  18. Ethical issues of expert witness testimony.

    PubMed

    Ferreres, Alberto R

    2014-07-01

    Being a surgical expert witness (EW) in professional liability claims implies ethical responsibilities, which are usually unknown to the parties who try to obtain such testimony as well as to the surgeons involved in providing the expert opinion required by the courts. Giving medical testimony can be included in the field of surgery since (1) being an expert medical witness and judge the performance of another surgeon means that the witness must have a medical license and preferably be board-certified as a surgeon, and (2) the EW opinion sets the standard of care to be applied in each particular case. Thus, the role of the surgeon EW in the legal arena must have the same degree of integrity as the surgeon in his practice with direct patient care and it should be reviewed and subject to regulation. PMID:24852436

  19. 16 CFR 3.31A - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... a respondent's expert reports. If material outside the scope of fair rebuttal is presented, a... trial or by deposition within the preceding 4 years. A rebuttal or surrebuttal report need not include... person who has been identified as an expert whose opinions may be presented at trial. Unless...

  20. 16 CFR 3.31A - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... a respondent's expert reports. If material outside the scope of fair rebuttal is presented, a... trial or by deposition within the preceding 4 years. A rebuttal or surrebuttal report need not include... person who has been identified as an expert whose opinions may be presented at trial. Unless...

  1. 16 CFR 3.31A - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... a respondent's expert reports. If material outside the scope of fair rebuttal is presented, a... trial or by deposition within the preceding 4 years. A rebuttal or surrebuttal report need not include... person who has been identified as an expert whose opinions may be presented at trial. Unless...

  2. Social opinion dynamics is not chaotic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lim, Chjan; Zhang, Weituo

    2016-08-01

    Motivated by the research on social opinion dynamics over large and dense networks, a general framework for verifying the monotonicity property of multi-agent dynamics is introduced. This allows a derivation of sociologically meaningful sufficient conditions for monotonicity that are tailor-made for social opinion dynamics, which typically have high nonlinearity. A direct consequence of monotonicity is that social opinion dynamics is nonchaotic. A key part of this framework is the definition of a partial order relation that is suitable for a large class of social opinion dynamics such as the generalized naming games. Comparisons are made to previous techniques to verify monotonicity. Using the results obtained, we extend many of the consequences of monotonicity to this class of social dynamics, including several corollaries on their asymptotic behavior, such as global convergence to consensus and tipping points of a minority fraction of zealots or leaders.

  3. [Psychological expert assessment as an intervention in child custody conflicts during divorce].

    PubMed

    Scheuerer-Englisch, H; Suess, G J; Schwabe-Höllein, M

    1994-12-01

    How to deal appropriately with families affected by divorce has also been discussed among psychological experts for years. In this article the psychological expert opinion in a divorce is described as a possibility of intervention in a current separation conflict. Based upon a process oriented and systemic point of view the corresponding main principles and approaches are described which are essential for the task of forming an expert opinion in such a conflict.

  4. Survival of extreme opinions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsu, Jiann-wien; Huang, Ding-wei

    2009-12-01

    We study the survival of extreme opinions in various processes of consensus formation. All the opinions are treated equally and subjected to the same rules of changing. We investigate three typical models to reach a consensus in each case: (A) personal influence, (B) influence from surroundings, and (C) influence to surroundings. Starting with uniformly distributed random opinions, our calculated results show that the extreme opinions can survive in both models (A) and (B), but not in model (C). We obtain a conclusion that both personal influence and passive adaptation to the environment are not sufficient enough to eradicate all the extreme opinions. Only the active persuasion to change the surroundings eliminates the extreme opinions completely.

  5. Expert Systems: An Overview.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Adiga, Sadashiv

    1984-01-01

    Discusses: (1) the architecture of expert systems; (2) features that distinguish expert systems from conventional programs; (3) conditions necessary to select a particular application for the development of successful expert systems; (4) issues to be resolved when building expert systems; and (5) limitations. Examples of selected expert systems…

  6. Expert witness testimony: rules of engagement.

    PubMed

    Satiani, Bhagwan

    2006-01-01

    Overlooked in most legislative remedies to address the medical malpractice (MMP) crisis is stringent prohibition against the use of "junk science'' in the courtroom and defining the qualifications of an expert witness. Expert witnesses should be required to: (1) to disclose information materially related to the reliability of expert testimony. (2) Filing of a "Daubert brief'': a summary of the plaintiff's expert's opinion along with a resume outlining his/her knowledge, skill, experience, training and education, reputation in the field relevant to the litigation, and complete details of the methodology employed by the expert. (3) An oath or declaration that acknowledges the duty to disclose to the court all information known to the person to be material to the reliability of the expert witness. Rules of evidence: The "Frye test'' or the "general acceptance rule'' has been used by judges to exclude expert testimony unless it is "sufficiently established to have gained general acceptance in the particular field in which it belongs.'' Stricter standards need to be legislated at the state level. The mandatory use of scientific panels by judges in all MMP cases is needed. Legislative relief has been sought by the medical community to address the serious disconnect between negligence and MMP litigation. The use of junk science in the courtroom remains largely unaddressed in the judicial system. Medical societies and legislatures must act to define an expert witness and restrain plaintiff's attorneys from using junk science to influence juries.

  7. Expert opinion: diagnosis and treatment of proximal hamstring tendinopathy

    PubMed Central

    Lempainen, Lasse; Johansson, Kristian; Banke, Ingo J.; Ranne, Juha; Mäkelä, Keijo; Sarimo, Janne; Niemi, Pekka; Orava, Sakari

    2015-01-01

    Summary Background: proximal hamstring tendinopathy (PHT) is a disabilitating disease often causing underperformance in the athletically demanding patients. The main symptom of PHT is lower gluteal pain especially during running or while prolonged sitting. Mainly affecting athletically active individuals, PHT is a considerable challenge for treating health care professionals. Purpose: this paper aims to concisely present the literature on PHT to guide health care professionals treating these patients and doing research on the subject. Methods: we reviewed the literature on PHT through literature search of scientific journal databases. Conclusions: as a tendinopathic pathology, it is a rather recently discovered exertion injury. As with other chronic tendon overuse injuries, current treatment strategies are unspecific with uncertain outcomes due to the unknown etiology of the tendon degeneration. Diagnostic features as well as both operative and non-operative treatments are evaluated from a clinical perspective, providing up to date information for clinicians and sports medicine therapists dealing with hamstring problems. Level of evidence: V. PMID:25878983

  8. Expert opinion: Time to ban formal CI selection criteria?

    PubMed

    Govaerts, Paul J

    2016-04-01

    This contribution addresses cochlear implantation (CI) selection criteria as a discussion topic. It expresses a personal viewpoint that challenges the usefulness and necessity of formal selection criteria. Scientifically, it is argued that CI selection must be highly individual, whereas the current criteria are general, not valid, not based on a wide consensus, and not up-to-date. Morally, it is argued that it is not legitimate to presume equality between patients and CI centers, that the current selection criteria create an ethical dilemma, and that an unresolvable contradiction exists between quality of life and measurability. Finally, liberalizing the criteria would probably have only a minimal impact on current practice and budget. PMID:27099117

  9. [How to render an expert opinion on dysphonia].

    PubMed

    Nawka, T; Rosanowski, F; Gross, M

    2014-09-01

    In Germany, parameters for medicolegal evaluation of dysphonia have to be revised against the background of communication disorders getting more important in a modern communication society. In this work, up-to-date diagnostic tools are reviewed and evaluated for medicolegal purposes. Parametrization is -performed according to the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health ICF. Following this schema, -dysphonia is graded as follows: 1) No dysphonia (no problem, percentile 0-4) impairment of the whole person 0%, 2) Slight, strain-induced dysphonia (slight problem, percentile 5-24) -impairment of the whole person 0-10%, 3) Moderate dysphonia (moderate problem, percentile 25-49) impairment of the whole person 20-30%, 4) Severe dysphonia (severe problem, percentile 50-95) impairment of the whole person 40-50%, 5) Complete loss of voice (extreme problem, percentile 96-100%) impairment of the whole person 50%.

  10. The Delphi Method: Gathering Expert Opinion in Religious Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baumfield, Vivienne M.; Conroy, James C.; Davis, Robert A.; Lundie, David C.

    2012-01-01

    The "Does Religious Education work?" project is part of the Religion and Society programme funded by two major research councils in the UK. It sets out to track the trajectory of Religious Education (RE) in secondary schools in the UK from the aims and intentions represented in policy through its enactment in classroom practice to the estimations…

  11. The prevention of analgesic opioids abuse: expert opinion.

    PubMed

    Maremmani, I; Gerra, G; Ripamonti, I C; Mugelli, A; Allegri, M; Viganò, R; Romualdi, P; Pinto, C; Raffaeli, W; Coluzzi, F; Gatti, R C; Mammucari, M; Fanelli, G

    2015-11-01

    Opioids are drugs of reference for the treatment of moderate to severe pain. Their proper use and a periodic assessment of the patient are crucial to prevent misuse. A multidisciplinary group suggests strategies for all stakeholders involved in the management of pain and suggests the importance of the doctor-patient relationship. PMID:26592848

  12. Public Opinion as Collective Coorientation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tipton, Leonard; And Others

    To conceptualize public opinion as something other than "mere aggregation" of individual opinions requires systemic models that identify component parts of public opinion and their structural/functional relationships. Operationalization requires asking respondents not only their individual opinion, but also their perception of public opinion,…

  13. Simplified Expert Elicitation Procedure for Risk Assessment of Operating Events

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; David Gertman; Jeffrey Joe; Julie Marble; William Galyean; Larry Blackwood; Harold Blackman

    2005-06-01

    This report describes a simplified, tractable, and usable procedure within the US Nuclear Regulator Commission (NRC) for seeking expert opinion and judgment. The NRC has increased efforts to document the reliability and risk of nuclear power plants (NPPs) through Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) models. The Significance Determination Process (SDP) and Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) programs at the NRC utilize expert judgment on the probability of failure, human error, and the operability of equipment in cases where otherwise insufficient operational data exist to make meaningful estimates. In the past, the SDP and ASP programs informally sought the opinion of experts inside and outside the NRC. This document represents a formal, documented procedure to take the place of informal expert elicitation. The procedures outlined in this report follow existing formal expert elicitation methodologies, but are streamlined as appropriate to the degree of accuracy required and the schedule for producing SDP and ASP analyses.

  14. The SIGNAL expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Struve, R.

    1996-12-31

    The SIGNAL insurance companies have developed an expert system for the support of its customer sales service. It was introduced at the end of 1993 and is currently used by approximately 500 customer service representatives. It involves a counseling system, which enables customer sales personnel to produce high-quality benefit analyses at the point of sale. It is not only an information system for the agent but involves the customer in an active role (through the implementation of sales talks, the conscious visualization of facts, the generation of natural language explanations etc.). Thus, the customer is not faced with a fait accompli but is actively involved in solving the problem. To meet these requirements, several Al techniques are used, as described further below. The application has increased sales efficiency, optimized customer contact time and decreased training requirements. The system is developed with KEE (and reimplemented in Allegro CL/PC) and runs on notebooks with 8 MB RAM.

  15. Opinion and community formation in coevolving networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iñiguez, Gerardo; Kertész, János; Kaski, Kimmo K.; Barrio, R. A.

    2009-12-01

    In human societies, opinion formation is mediated by social interactions, consequently taking place on a network of relationships and at the same time influencing the structure of the network and its evolution. To investigate this coevolution of opinions and social interaction structure, we develop a dynamic agent-based network model by taking into account short range interactions like discussions between individuals, long range interactions like a sense for overall mood modulated by the attitudes of individuals, and external field corresponding to outside influence. Moreover, individual biases can be naturally taken into account. In addition, the model includes the opinion-dependent link-rewiring scheme to describe network topology coevolution with a slower time scale than that of the opinion formation. With this model, comprehensive numerical simulations and mean field calculations have been carried out and they show the importance of the separation between fast and slow time scales resulting in the network to organize as well-connected small communities of agents with the same opinion.

  16. Sznajd Opinion Dynamics with Global and Local Neighborhood

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schulze, Christian

    In this modification of the Sznajd consensus model on the square lattice, two people of arbitrary distance who agree in their opinions convince their nearest neighbors of this opinion. Similarly to the mean field theory of Slanina and Lavicka, the times needed to reach consensus are distributed exponentially and are quite small. The width of the phase transition vanishes reciprocally to the linear lattice dimension. Advertising has effects independent of the system size. For more than two opinions, three opinions reach a consensus in roughly half of the samples, and four only rarely and only for small lattices. Up to 109 agents were simulated.

  17. The Technologist As An Expert Witness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morrill, R. E. K.; Hall, Morse

    1985-03-01

    Decisions in our legal system are made by laymen. Even the most technical and complex cases are heard and decided by a judge or jury who may very well have no expertise on the questions which confront them. As a result, our legal system permits experts to explain complex phenomena to the fact finder and even to express his opinion on the issue which the fact finder ultimately has to decide. For example, an expert may explain not only how an airplane accident occurred, but also may testify that someone was at fault.

  18. Non-consensus Opinion Models on Complex Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Qian; Braunstein, Lidia A.; Wang, Huijuan; Shao, Jia; Stanley, H. Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo

    2013-04-01

    only within single networks but also between networks, and because the rules of opinion formation within a network may differ from those between networks, we study here the opinion dynamics in coupled networks. Each network represents a social group or community and the interdependent links joining individuals from different networks may be social ties that are unusually strong, e.g., married couples. We apply the non-consensus opinion (NCO) rule on each individual network and the global majority rule on interdependent pairs such that two interdependent agents with different opinions will, due to the influence of mass media, follow the majority opinion of the entire population. The opinion interactions within each network and the interdependent links across networks interlace periodically until a steady state is reached. We find that the interdependent links effectively force the system from a second order phase transition, which is characteristic of the NCO model on a single network, to a hybrid phase transition, i.e., a mix of second-order and abrupt jump-like transitions that ultimately becomes, as we increase the percentage of interdependent agents, a pure abrupt transition. We conclude that for the NCO model on coupled networks, interactions through interdependent links could push the non-consensus opinion model to a consensus opinion model, which mimics the reality that increased mass communication causes people to hold opinions that are increasingly similar. We also find that the effect of interdependent links is more pronounced in interdependent scale free networks than in interdependent Erdős Rényi networks.

  19. Opinion formation and bi-polarization with biased assimilation and homophily

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Guiyuan; Zhang, Weidong

    2016-02-01

    An agent-based model incorporating biased assimilation is proposed in this paper to investigate opinion dynamics over a connected social network. The opinion of each agent is represented by a sequence of arguments, and it evolves through the interactions between agents. The probability that one agent chooses another to communicate depends on the similarity of their opinions. During every interaction, interacting agents exchange the argument randomly selected from the corresponding arguments sequence. Theoretical analysis reveals that this model results in consensus on either extreme positive opinion or extreme negative opinion, or generates bi-polarization. Numerical simulations are carried out to investigate the dynamics of the model over different networks. Results are obtained in terms of the effect of homophily, biased assimilation and network topology on opinion formation.

  20. [Ex post opinion on work disability in a payment decision case].

    PubMed

    Meissner, Ewa; Barzdo, Maciej; Zydek, Leszek; Markuszewski, Leszek; Szram, Stefan; Berent, Jarosław

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a case of ex post opinion in the judgement of work disability for purposes of benefit qualification, in which numerous, frequently contradictory disability certifications by KIZ, WKIZ, ZUS physician-certifiers and court medical opinions were issued. Despite the simplicity of her case, a woman underwent 17 examinations in connection with the opinions and certifications. The court, instead of verifying the opinions and clearing up all doubts through questioning legal experts, submitted subsequent opinions as evidence, and ZUS broke the law by issuing work certification in spite of a legally binding court ruling.

  1. Speech spectrogram expert

    SciTech Connect

    Johannsen, J.; Macallister, J.; Michalek, T.; Ross, S.

    1983-01-01

    Various authors have pointed out that humans can become quite adept at deriving phonetic transcriptions from speech spectrograms (as good as 90percent accuracy at the phoneme level). The authors describe an expert system which attempts to simulate this performance. The speech spectrogram expert (spex) is actually a society made up of three experts: a 2-dimensional vision expert, an acoustic-phonetic expert, and a phonetics expert. The visual reasoning expert finds important visual features of the spectrogram. The acoustic-phonetic expert reasons about how visual features relates to phonemes, and about how phonemes change visually in different contexts. The phonetics expert reasons about allowable phoneme sequences and transformations, and deduces an english spelling for phoneme strings. The speech spectrogram expert is highly interactive, allowing users to investigate hypotheses and edit rules. 10 references.

  2. Opinion Dynamics and Influencing on Random Geometric Graphs

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Weituo; Lim, Chjan C.; Korniss, G.; Szymanski, Boleslaw K.

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the two-word Naming Game on two-dimensional random geometric graphs. Studying this model advances our understanding of the spatial distribution and propagation of opinions in social dynamics. A main feature of this model is the spontaneous emergence of spatial structures called opinion domains which are geographic regions with clear boundaries within which all individuals share the same opinion. We provide the mean-field equation for the underlying dynamics and discuss several properties of the equation such as the stationary solutions and two-time-scale separation. For the evolution of the opinion domains we find that the opinion domain boundary propagates at a speed proportional to its curvature. Finally we investigate the impact of committed agents on opinion domains and find the scaling of consensus time. PMID:24993655

  3. Social judgment theory based model on opinion formation, polarization and evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chau, H. F.; Wong, C. Y.; Chow, F. K.; Fung, Chi-Hang Fred

    2014-12-01

    The dynamical origin of opinion polarization in the real world is an interesting topic that physical scientists may help to understand. To properly model the dynamics, the theory must be fully compatible with findings by social psychologists on microscopic opinion change. Here we introduce a generic model of opinion formation with homogeneous agents based on the well-known social judgment theory in social psychology by extending a similar model proposed by Jager and Amblard. The agents’ opinions will eventually cluster around extreme and/or moderate opinions forming three phases in a two-dimensional parameter space that describes the microscopic opinion response of the agents. The dynamics of this model can be qualitatively understood by mean-field analysis. More importantly, first-order phase transition in opinion distribution is observed by evolving the system under a slow change in the system parameters, showing that punctuated equilibria in public opinion can occur even in a fully connected social network.

  4. [Medical data security in medico-legal opinioning].

    PubMed

    Susło, Robert; Swiatek, Barbara

    2005-01-01

    Medical data security can be approached in medico-legal opinioning in three main situations: security of medical data, on which the opinion should be based, opinioning itself and whether the medical data security was properly ensured and ensuring medical data security during medico-legal opinion giving. The importance of medical data security, during collecting, processing and storing, as well in medical as in legal institutions, is of major importance for the possibility of providing a proper medico-legal opinion. Theoretically speeking, it is possible to give a proper medico-legal opinion using incorrect data, but the possibility is low. When the expert is given improper, unreadable, incomplete or even bogus in part or in the whole medical data it is extremely possible, that he fails in giving his opinion. The term "medical data" was defined and subsequently there was a brief review of medical data storing methods made and specific threats bound with them, based on modern literature. The authors also pointed out possible methods of preventing the threats. They listed Polish as well as international regulations and laws concerning the problem, accenting the importance of preserving medical data for the purposes of medico-legal opinioning.

  5. A teledentistry system for the second opinion.

    PubMed

    Gambino, Orazio; Lima, Fausto; Pirrone, Roberto; Ardizzone, Edoardo; Campisi, Giuseppina; di Fede, Olga

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we present a Teledentistry system aimed to the Second Opinion task. It make use of a particular camera called intra-oral camera, also called dental camera, in order to perform the photo shooting and real-time video of the inner part of the mouth. The pictures acquired by the Operator with such a device are sent to the Oral Medicine Expert (OME) by means of a current File Transfer Protocol (FTP) service and the real-time video is channeled into a video streaming thanks to the VideoLan client/server (VLC) application. It is composed by a HTML5 web-pages generated by PHP and allows to perform the Second Opinion both when Operator and OME are logged and when one of them is offline. PMID:25570224

  6. Expert witness immunity: surveying the karnage!

    PubMed

    Pamplin, Chris

    2014-03-01

    For most expert witnesses, the decidedly disturbing decision-making of the Supreme Court in Jones v Kaney (2011) UKSC 13, has little immediate impact as, being conscientious professionals, they will be unlikely to be found negligent and will carry professional indemnity insurance just in case. Indeed, they will view existing professional disciplinary risks as a greater concern! But there are a number of potential consequences of this disturbing decision that should be considered by all expert witnesses and some clear actions that may be necessary. These include including obtain appropriate professional indemnity insurance, considering the potential for limiting liability through contract, becoming more circumspect about the way they express their opinions and consider whether accepting single joint expert instructions is still an option. PMID:24619841

  7. Bounded Confidence under Preferential Flip: A Coupled Dynamics of Structural Balance and Opinions

    PubMed Central

    Parravano, Antonio; Andina-Díaz, Ascensión; Meléndez-Jiménez, Miguel A.

    2016-01-01

    In this work we study the coupled dynamics of social balance and opinion formation. We propose a model where agents form opinions under bounded confidence, but only considering the opinions of their friends. The signs of social ties -friendships and enmities- evolve seeking for social balance, taking into account how similar agents’ opinions are. We consider both the case where opinions have one and two dimensions. We find that our dynamics produces the segregation of agents into two cliques, with the opinions of agents in one clique differing from those in the other. Depending on the level of bounded confidence, the dynamics can produce either consensus of opinions within each clique or the coexistence of several opinion clusters in a clique. For the uni-dimensional case, the opinions in one clique are all below the opinions in the other clique, hence defining a “left clique” and a “right clique”. In the two-dimensional case, our numerical results suggest that the two cliques are separated by a hyperplane in the opinion space. We also show that the phenomenon of unidimensional opinions identified by DeMarzo, Vayanos and Zwiebel (Q J Econ 2003) extends partially to our dynamics. Finally, in the context of politics, we comment about the possible relation of our results to the fragmentation of an ideology and the emergence of new political parties. PMID:27716815

  8. What Are Expert Systems?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    d'Agapeyeff, A.

    1986-01-01

    Intended for potential business users, this paper describes the main characteristics of expert systems; discusses practical use considerations; presents a taxonomy of the systems; and reviews several expert system development projects in business and industry. (MBR)

  9. The Expert Witness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Environmental Science and Technology, 1975

    1975-01-01

    As consumers organize and industry begins to feel the economic pinch of pollution control laws, litigation may increase as will the need for the expert witness. Discussed are the functions and preparations of expert witnesses, their role and conduct in judicial proceedings, and the techniques of being an expert witness. (BT)

  10. Assessment of unnecessary suffering in animals by veterinary experts.

    PubMed

    Baumgaertner, H; Mullan, S; Main, D C J

    2016-09-24

    Veterinary surgeons are often asked to provide reports to courts describing factual observations and their expert opinion on the presence or absence of unnecessary suffering in animals. This study reviewed 42 expert witness reports in order to describe the approach taken to the assessment of unnecessary suffering. While most reports suitably described factual observations, there was significant variation in the opinions on suffering and the actions of the owner. Severity and duration of potential suffering was commented upon in 26 and 29 reports, respectively. Experts used terms associated with negative mental states and physical states in 28 and 27 reports, respectively. The necessity of suffering was commented upon in 27 reports, with minimal commentary on the actions of the owner. External references supporting the opinion of the expert were only provided in 13 reports. There was evidence of disputes between experts concerning the definition of suffering, the significance of clinical findings and the relevance of different assessment methods. It is suggested that expert witness reports should include a systematic consideration of the animal's mental and physical states, severity of harm, duration of harm and a commentary on the necessity of suffering as defined by legislation.

  11. Retroperitoneal Sarcoma: Fact, Opinion, and Controversy.

    PubMed

    Gladdy, Rebecca A; Gupta, Abha; Catton, Charles N

    2016-10-01

    After diagnosis of retroperitoneal sarcoma (RPS), detailed imaging and multidisciplinary discussion should guide treatment including surgical resection and in select cases, neoadjuvant therapy. Local recurrence is common in RPS and is associated with grade, histologic subtype, completeness of resection, and size. As guidelines to standardize RPS patient management emerge, expert pathologic assessment and management in centers of excellence are benchmarks of quality of care. The efficacy of current chemotherapy is limited and there is a critical need to understand the molecular basis of sarcoma so that new drug therapies are developed. Multicenter clinical trials are needed to limit opinion and controversy in this complex and challenging disease. PMID:27591493

  12. Damage spreading and opinion dynamics on scale-free networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fortunato, Santo

    2005-03-01

    We study damage spreading among the opinions of a system of agents, subjected to the dynamics of the Krause-Hegselmann consensus model. The damage consists in a sharp change of the opinion of one or more agents in the initial random opinion configuration, supposedly due to some external factors and/or events. This may help to understand for instance under which conditions special shocking events or targeted propaganda are able to influence the results of elections. For agents lying on the nodes of a Barabási-Albert network, there is a damage spreading transition at a low value εd of the confidence bound parameter. Interestingly, we find as well that there is some critical value εs above which the initial perturbation manages to propagate to all other agents.

  13. A consensus opinion model based on the evolutionary game

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Han-Xin

    2016-08-01

    We propose a consensus opinion model based on the evolutionary game. In our model, both of the two connected agents receive a benefit if they have the same opinion, otherwise they both pay a cost. Agents update their opinions by comparing payoffs with neighbors. The opinion of an agent with higher payoff is more likely to be imitated. We apply this model in scale-free networks with tunable degree distribution. Interestingly, we find that there exists an optimal ratio of cost to benefit, leading to the shortest consensus time. Qualitative analysis is obtained by examining the evolution of the opinion clusters. Moreover, we find that the consensus time decreases as the average degree of the network increases, but increases with the noise introduced to permit irrational choices. The dependence of the consensus time on the network size is found to be a power-law form. For small or larger ratio of cost to benefit, the consensus time decreases as the degree exponent increases. However, for moderate ratio of cost to benefit, the consensus time increases with the degree exponent. Our results may provide new insights into opinion dynamics driven by the evolutionary game theory.

  14. Testing expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chang, C. L.; Stachowitz, R. A.

    1988-01-01

    Software quality is of primary concern in all large-scale expert system development efforts. Building appropriate validation and test tools for ensuring software reliability of expert systems is therefore required. The Expert Systems Validation Associate (EVA) is a validation system under development at the Lockheed Artificial Intelligence Center. EVA provides a wide range of validation and test tools to check correctness, consistency, and completeness of an expert system. Testing a major function of EVA. It means executing an expert system with test cases with the intent of finding errors. In this paper, we describe many different types of testing such as function-based testing, structure-based testing, and data-based testing. We describe how appropriate test cases may be selected in order to perform good and thorough testing of an expert system.

  15. An Opinion Interactive Model Based on Individual Persuasiveness.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Xin; Chen, Bin; Liu, Liang; Ma, Liang; Qiu, Xiaogang

    2015-01-01

    In order to study the formation process of group opinion in real life, we put forward a new opinion interactive model based on Deffuant model and its improved models in this paper because current models of opinion dynamics lack considering individual persuasiveness. Our model has following advantages: firstly persuasiveness is added to individual's attributes reflecting the importance of persuasiveness, which means that all the individuals are different from others; secondly probability is introduced in the course of interaction which simulates the uncertainty of interaction. In Monte Carlo simulation experiments, sensitivity analysis including the influence of randomness, initial persuasiveness distribution, and number of individuals is studied at first; what comes next is that the range of common opinion based on the initial persuasiveness distribution can be predicted. Simulation experiment results show that when the initial values of agents are fixed, no matter how many times independently replicated experiments, the common opinion will converge at a certain point; however the number of iterations will not always be the same; the range of common opinion can be predicted when initial distribution of opinion and persuasiveness are given. As a result, this model can reflect and interpret some phenomena of opinion interaction in realistic society.

  16. From expert witness to defendant: abolition of expert witness protection and its implications.

    PubMed

    Mendelson, Danuta

    2012-12-01

    In Jones v Kaney [2011] 2 AC 398, the United Kingdom Supreme Court held that in England and Wales (but not in Scotland), clients can sue expert witnesses in negligence and/or contract for work performed under their retainer, whether in civil or criminal trials. The duties of expert witnesses in England are regulated by the Civil Procedure Rules and Protocols; the former also regulate the conduct of cases involving expert opinions. The legal context that led to the litigation is examined in the light of these rules, in particular, the nature of the allegations against Dr Kaney, a psychologist retained to provide psychiatric opinion. Jones v Kaney, as a decision of the United Kingdom Supreme Court, is not a binding precedent in Australia. However, unlike statutory enactments, common law judgments are retrospective in their operation, which means that health care practitioners who follow a generally accepted practice today may still be sued for damages by their patients or clients in the future. By definition, the future, including the refusal by the Australian High Court to follow Kaney's abolition of expert witnesses' immunity from suit for breach of duty to their clients, cannot be predicted with certainty. Consequently, health care practitioners in Australia and other countries should be aware of the case, its jurisprudential and practical ramifications.

  17. The dermatologist as expert witness-revisited: know the risks before you agree.

    PubMed

    Piekarsky, Scott B

    2013-12-01

    Legal Standards and requirements exist for dermatologists wishing to serve as expert witnesses. Case law, statutes and licensing/credentialing groups exist to regulate the practice to ensure honesty and integrity. Penalties and sanctions exist for deceptive and fraudulent opinions. However, conversely, private groups must be careful in their efforts to not libel savvy experts or interfere with their legitimate work. PMID:24800432

  18. Factors Influencing Continuing Professional Development: A Delphi Study among Nursing Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brekelmans, Gerard; Poell, Rob F.; van Wijk, Kees

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this paper is to present an inventory of expert opinions on the factors that influence the participation of registered nurses in continuing professional development (CPD) activities. Design/methodology/approach: A Delphi study was conducted among 38 Dutch experts (nursing employers, managers, education institutions, and…

  19. Social influence and the collective dynamics of opinion formation.

    PubMed

    Moussaïd, Mehdi; Kämmer, Juliane E; Analytis, Pantelis P; Neth, Hansjörg

    2013-01-01

    Social influence is the process by which individuals adapt their opinion, revise their beliefs, or change their behavior as a result of social interactions with other people. In our strongly interconnected society, social influence plays a prominent role in many self-organized phenomena such as herding in cultural markets, the spread of ideas and innovations, and the amplification of fears during epidemics. Yet, the mechanisms of opinion formation remain poorly understood, and existing physics-based models lack systematic empirical validation. Here, we report two controlled experiments showing how participants answering factual questions revise their initial judgments after being exposed to the opinion and confidence level of others. Based on the observation of 59 experimental subjects exposed to peer-opinion for 15 different items, we draw an influence map that describes the strength of peer influence during interactions. A simple process model derived from our observations demonstrates how opinions in a group of interacting people can converge or split over repeated interactions. In particular, we identify two major attractors of opinion: (i) the expert effect, induced by the presence of a highly confident individual in the group, and (ii) the majority effect, caused by the presence of a critical mass of laypeople sharing similar opinions. Additional simulations reveal the existence of a tipping point at which one attractor will dominate over the other, driving collective opinion in a given direction. These findings have implications for understanding the mechanisms of public opinion formation and managing conflicting situations in which self-confident and better informed minorities challenge the views of a large uninformed majority.

  20. Social Influence and the Collective Dynamics of Opinion Formation

    PubMed Central

    Moussaïd, Mehdi; Kämmer, Juliane E.; Analytis, Pantelis P.; Neth, Hansjörg

    2013-01-01

    Social influence is the process by which individuals adapt their opinion, revise their beliefs, or change their behavior as a result of social interactions with other people. In our strongly interconnected society, social influence plays a prominent role in many self-organized phenomena such as herding in cultural markets, the spread of ideas and innovations, and the amplification of fears during epidemics. Yet, the mechanisms of opinion formation remain poorly understood, and existing physics-based models lack systematic empirical validation. Here, we report two controlled experiments showing how participants answering factual questions revise their initial judgments after being exposed to the opinion and confidence level of others. Based on the observation of 59 experimental subjects exposed to peer-opinion for 15 different items, we draw an influence map that describes the strength of peer influence during interactions. A simple process model derived from our observations demonstrates how opinions in a group of interacting people can converge or split over repeated interactions. In particular, we identify two major attractors of opinion: (i) the expert effect, induced by the presence of a highly confident individual in the group, and (ii) the majority effect, caused by the presence of a critical mass of laypeople sharing similar opinions. Additional simulations reveal the existence of a tipping point at which one attractor will dominate over the other, driving collective opinion in a given direction. These findings have implications for understanding the mechanisms of public opinion formation and managing conflicting situations in which self-confident and better informed minorities challenge the views of a large uninformed majority. PMID:24223805

  1. Expert system technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prince, Mary Ellen

    1987-01-01

    The expert system is a computer program which attempts to reproduce the problem-solving behavior of an expert, who is able to view problems from a broad perspective and arrive at conclusions rapidly, using intuition, shortcuts, and analogies to previous situations. Expert systems are a departure from the usual artificial intelligence approach to problem solving. Researchers have traditionally tried to develop general modes of human intelligence that could be applied to many different situations. Expert systems, on the other hand, tend to rely on large quantities of domain specific knowledge, much of it heuristic. The reasoning component of the system is relatively simple and straightforward. For this reason, expert systems are often called knowledge based systems. The report expands on the foregoing. Section 1 discusses the architecture of a typical expert system. Section 2 deals with the characteristics that make a problem a suitable candidate for expert system solution. Section 3 surveys current technology, describing some of the software aids available for expert system development. Section 4 discusses the limitations of the latter. The concluding section makes predictions of future trends.

  2. Adaptive feature extraction expert

    SciTech Connect

    Yuschik, M.

    1983-01-01

    The identification of discriminatory features places an upper bound on the recognition rate of any automatic speech recognition (ASR) system. One way to structure the extraction of features is to construct an expert system which applies a set of rules to identify particular properties of the speech patterns. However, these patterns vary for an individual speaker and from speaker to speaker so that another expert is actually needed to learn the new variations. The author investigates the problem by using sets of discriminatory features that are suggested by a feature generation expert, improves the selectivity of these features with a training expert, and finally develops a minimally spanning feature set with a statistical selection expert. 12 references.

  3. Ethical Expert Systems

    PubMed Central

    Victoroff, Michael S.

    1985-01-01

    The title is a double entendre. The discussion approaches expert systems from two directions: “What ethical hazards are created by expert systems in medicine?” and “Would it be ethical to design an expert system for solving problems in bioethics?” Computers present new ethical problems to society, some of which are unprecedented. These can be categorized under several rubrics. The paper describes a rudimentary scheme for understanding ethical issues raised by computers, in general, and medical expert systems, in particular. It focuses on bioethical implications of AI in medicine; explores norms, assumptions and taboos; and highlights certain ethical pitfalls. Principles are elucidated, for building ethically sound systems. Finally, a proposal is discussed, for the design of an expert system for moral problem solving, and the ethical implications of this notion are analyzed.

  4. Opinion Formation by Social Influence: From Experiments to Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Chacoma, Andrés; Zanette, Damián H.

    2015-01-01

    Predicting different forms of collective behavior in human populations, as the outcome of individual attitudes and their mutual influence, is a question of major interest in social sciences. In particular, processes of opinion formation have been theoretically modeled on the basis of a formal similarity with the dynamics of certain physical systems, giving rise to an extensive collection of mathematical models amenable to numerical simulation or even to exact solution. Empirical ground for these models is however largely missing, which confine them to the level of mere metaphors of the real phenomena they aim at explaining. In this paper we present results of an experiment which quantifies the change in the opinions given by a subject on a set of specific matters under the influence of others. The setup is a variant of a recently proposed experiment, where the subject’s confidence on his or her opinion was evaluated as well. In our realization, which records the quantitative answers of 85 subjects to 20 questions before and after an influence event, the focus is put on characterizing the change in answers and confidence induced by such influence. Similarities and differences with the previous version of the experiment are highlighted. We find that confidence changes are to a large extent independent of any other recorded quantity, while opinion changes are strongly modulated by the original confidence. On the other hand, opinion changes are not influenced by the initial difference with the reference opinion. The typical time scales on which opinion varies are moreover substantially longer than those of confidence change. Experimental results are then used to estimate parameters for a dynamical agent-based model of opinion formation in a large population. In the context of the model, we study the convergence to full consensus and the effect of opinion leaders on the collective distribution of opinions. PMID:26517825

  5. Opinion Formation by Social Influence: From Experiments to Modeling.

    PubMed

    Chacoma, Andrés; Zanette, Damián H

    2015-01-01

    Predicting different forms of collective behavior in human populations, as the outcome of individual attitudes and their mutual influence, is a question of major interest in social sciences. In particular, processes of opinion formation have been theoretically modeled on the basis of a formal similarity with the dynamics of certain physical systems, giving rise to an extensive collection of mathematical models amenable to numerical simulation or even to exact solution. Empirical ground for these models is however largely missing, which confine them to the level of mere metaphors of the real phenomena they aim at explaining. In this paper we present results of an experiment which quantifies the change in the opinions given by a subject on a set of specific matters under the influence of others. The setup is a variant of a recently proposed experiment, where the subject's confidence on his or her opinion was evaluated as well. In our realization, which records the quantitative answers of 85 subjects to 20 questions before and after an influence event, the focus is put on characterizing the change in answers and confidence induced by such influence. Similarities and differences with the previous version of the experiment are highlighted. We find that confidence changes are to a large extent independent of any other recorded quantity, while opinion changes are strongly modulated by the original confidence. On the other hand, opinion changes are not influenced by the initial difference with the reference opinion. The typical time scales on which opinion varies are moreover substantially longer than those of confidence change. Experimental results are then used to estimate parameters for a dynamical agent-based model of opinion formation in a large population. In the context of the model, we study the convergence to full consensus and the effect of opinion leaders on the collective distribution of opinions.

  6. Food webs: experts consuming families of experts.

    PubMed

    Rossberg, A G; Matsuda, H; Amemiya, T; Itoh, K

    2006-08-01

    Food webs of habitats as diverse as lakes or desert valleys are known to exhibit common "food-web patterns", but the detailed mechanisms generating these structures have remained unclear. By employing a stochastic, dynamical model, we show that many aspects of the structure of predatory food webs can be understood as the traces of an evolutionary history where newly evolving species avoid direct competition with their relatives. The tendency to avoid sharing natural enemies (apparent competition) with related species is considerably weaker. Thus, "experts consuming families of experts" can be identified as the main underlying food-web pattern. We report the results of a systematic, quantitative model validation showing that the model is surprisingly accurate.

  7. Rise of an alternative majority against opinion leaders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tucci, K.; González-Avella, J. C.; Cosenza, M. G.

    2016-03-01

    We investigate the role of opinion leaders or influentials in the collective behavior of a social system. Opinion leaders are characterized by their unidirectional influence on other agents. We employ a model based on Axelrod's dynamics for cultural interaction among social agents that allows for non-interacting states. We find three collective phases in the space of parameters of the system, given by the fraction of opinion leaders and a quantity representing the number of available states: one ordered phase having the state imposed by the leaders; another nontrivial ordered phase consisting of a majority group in a state orthogonal or alternative to that of the opinion leaders, and a disordered phase, where many small groups coexist. We show that the spontaneous rise of an alternative group in the presence of opinion leaders depends on the existence of a minimum number of long-range connections in the underlying network. This phenomenon challenges the common idea that influentials are fundamental to propagation processes in society, such as the formation of public opinion.

  8. Entropic determination of the phase transition in a coevolving opinion-formation model.

    PubMed

    Burgos, E; Hernández, Laura; Ceva, H; Perazzo, R P J

    2015-03-01

    We study an opinion formation model by the means of a coevolving complex network where the vertices represent the individuals, characterized by their evolving opinions, and the edges represent the interactions among them. The network adapts to the spreading of opinions in two ways: not only connected agents interact and eventually change their thinking but an agent may also rewire one of its links to a neighborhood holding the same opinion as his. The dynamics, based on a global majority rule, depends on an external parameter that controls the plasticity of the network. We show how the information entropy associated to the distribution of group sizes allows us to locate the phase transition between a phase of full consensus and another, where different opinions coexist. We also determine the minimum size of the most informative sampling. At the transition the distribution of the sizes of groups holding the same opinion is scale free. PMID:25871158

  9. Entropic determination of the phase transition in a coevolving opinion-formation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burgos, E.; Hernández, Laura; Ceva, H.; Perazzo, R. P. J.

    2015-03-01

    We study an opinion formation model by the means of a coevolving complex network where the vertices represent the individuals, characterized by their evolving opinions, and the edges represent the interactions among them. The network adapts to the spreading of opinions in two ways: not only connected agents interact and eventually change their thinking but an agent may also rewire one of its links to a neighborhood holding the same opinion as his. The dynamics, based on a global majority rule, depends on an external parameter that controls the plasticity of the network. We show how the information entropy associated to the distribution of group sizes allows us to locate the phase transition between a phase of full consensus and another, where different opinions coexist. We also determine the minimum size of the most informative sampling. At the transition the distribution of the sizes of groups holding the same opinion is scale free.

  10. Opinions, Conflicts, and Consensus: Modeling Social Dynamics in a Collaborative Environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Török, János; Iñiguez, Gerardo; Yasseri, Taha; San Miguel, Maxi; Kaski, Kimmo; Kertész, János

    2013-02-01

    Information-communication technology promotes collaborative environments like Wikipedia where, however, controversy and conflicts can appear. To describe the rise, persistence, and resolution of such conflicts, we devise an extended opinion dynamics model where agents with different opinions perform a single task to make a consensual product. As a function of the convergence parameter describing the influence of the product on the agents, the model shows spontaneous symmetry breaking of the final consensus opinion represented by the medium. In the case when agents are replaced with new ones at a certain rate, a transition from mainly consensus to a perpetual conflict occurs, which is in qualitative agreement with the scenarios observed in Wikipedia.

  11. [Remarks about the position of the medico-legal expert in imperative regulations in the Penal and Civil Codes].

    PubMed

    Chowaniec, Czesław; Nowak, Agnieszka; Chowaniec, Małgorzata; Kobek, Mariusz

    2005-01-01

    In the monograph 'Medico-legal opinions--essays on theory', prof. K. Jaegermann wrote that 'the use of an expert requires theoretical or fairly clear knowledge about the mutual relationship between judge and expert'. In his opinion knowledge of this kind plays a significant role in estimating the usefulness of so-called expert evidence. Practical knowledge about the relationship between the judge and expert is necessary but not a decisive condition not only for a lawyer to be a judge but also for a physician to be a medico-legal expert. An expert can be not only a person appointed by the court but must also possess proper knowledge in a particular field, namely, the required professional and specialist qualifications and must also considered to be impartial. On the basis of the analysis of law in force and imperative regulations in Penal and Civil Codes, the authors have presented remarks relating to the expert's status as well as the lack of judicial control over the activity of experts appointed by court. Verification of professional qualifications in court experts and a reduction of those appointed 'ad hoc' are suggested. In the authors opinion co-operation between lawyers and experts should be improved. It is also essential to introduce statutory legal protection of court experts as well as to undertake activities leading to equaling the status of Polish court experts to that of other European countries.

  12. Social influences in opinion dynamics: The role of conformity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Javarone, Marco Alberto

    2014-11-01

    We study the effects of social influences in opinion dynamics. In particular, we define a simple model, based on the majority rule voting, in order to consider the role of conformity. Conformity is a central issue in social psychology as it represents one of people’s behaviors that emerges as a result of their interactions. The proposed model represents agents, arranged in a network and provided with an individual behavior, that change opinion in function of those of their neighbors. In particular, agents can behave as conformists or as nonconformists. In the former case, agents change opinion in accordance with the majority of their social circle (i.e., their neighbors); in the latter case, they do the opposite, i.e., they take the minority opinion. Moreover, we investigate the nonconformity both on a global and on a local perspective, i.e., in relation to the whole population and to the social circle of each nonconformist agent, respectively. We perform a computational study of the proposed model, with the aim to observe if and how the conformity affects the related outcomes. Moreover, we want to investigate whether it is possible to achieve some kind of equilibrium, or of order, during the evolution of the system. Results highlight that the amount of nonconformist agents in the population plays a central role in these dynamics. In particular, conformist agents play the role of stabilizers in fully-connected networks, whereas the opposite happens in complex networks. Furthermore, by analyzing complex topologies of the agent network, we found that in the presence of radical nonconformist agents the topology of the system has a prominent role; otherwise it does not matter since we observed that a conformist behavior is almost always more convenient. Finally, we analyze the results of the model by considering that agents can change also their behavior over time, i.e., conformists can become nonconformists and vice versa.

  13. Opinion dynamics and synchronization in a network of scientific collaborations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pluchino, Alessandro; Boccaletti, Stefano; Latora, Vito; Rapisarda, Andrea

    2006-12-01

    In this paper we discuss opinion dynamics in the opinion changing rate ( OCR) model, recently proposed in Pluchino et al. [Int. J. Mod. Phys. C 16(4) (2005) 515-531]. The OCR model allows to study whether and how a group of social agents, with a different intrinsic tendency ( rate) to change opinion, finds agreement. In particular, we implement the OCR model on a small graph describing the topology of a real social system. The nodes of the graph are scientists participating in the Tepoztlán conference, celebrating Alberto Robledo's 60th birthday, and the links are based on coauthorship in scientific papers. We study how opinions evolve in time according to the frequency rates of the nodes, to the coupling term, and also to the presence of group structures.

  14. The spread of opinion on co-evolving networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Pramesh; Sreenivasan, S.; Korniss, G.; Szymanski, B. K.

    2011-03-01

    We discuss a model of opinion formation in co-evolving networks. In realistic scenarios, the network constantly changes structure favoring connections between similar individuals (homophily). Here we allow the opinions to co-evolve with the reorganization of links in the network. This dynamical nature of the network impedes the spreading of opinions. We study how this resistance to the spread can be overcome and consensus can be achieved by randomly distributing a few committed agents (-nodes that are not influenceable in their opinions). In this model adjacent nodes influence each other if they are similar on at least Q attributes, where Q is the influence threshold. Nodes will rewire their existing links if they are not similar enough. We demonstrate through simulations that in the absence of committed agents, time to reach consensus in opinions diverges exponentially with system size N. However, as committed agents are added, beyond a small value of committed fraction, the consensus time becomes a slowly varying function of N. (Ref- F. Vazquez et al. - Phys. Rev. E76, 046120 -2007) Supported in part by ARL and ONR.

  15. A Combinatorial Auction among Versatile Experts and Amateurs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, Takayuki; Yokoo, Makoto; Matsubara, Shigeo

    Auctions have become an integral part of electronic commerce and a promising field for applying multi-agent technologies. Correctly judging the quality of auctioned goods is often difficult for amateurs, in particular, in Internet auctions. However, experts can correctly judge the quality of goods. In this situation, it is difficult to make experts tell the truth and attain an efficient allocation, since experts have a clear advantage over amateurs and they would not reveal their valuable information without some reward. In our previous work, we have succeeded in developing such auction protocols under the following two cases: (1) the case of a single-unit auction among experts and amateurs, and (2) the case of a combinatorial auction among single-skilled experts and amateurs. In this paper, we focus on versatile experts. Versatile experts have an interest in, and expert knowledge on the qualities of several goods. In the case of versatile experts, there would be several problems, e.g., free riding problems, if we simply extended the previous VCG-style auction protocol. Thus, in this paper, we employ PORF (price-oriented, rationing-free) protocol for designing our new protocol to realize a strategy-proof auction protocol for experts. In the protocol, the dominant strategy for experts is truth-telling. Also, for amateurs, truth-telling is the best response when two or more experts select the dominant strategy. Furthermore, the protocol is false-name-proof.

  16. [Causalgia in neurologic expert assessment].

    PubMed

    Suchenwirth, R M

    1990-08-01

    Rendering an expert opinion on causalgia, after having clear determined it as the disease, poses many problems to the examiner. One ought to make this diagnosis with its serious consequences only under the following conditions: --when it is a case of a mostly partial trauma of a nerve with considerable intermingling of sympathetic fibres; --when the pains have a burning and primarily superficial character; --when the pain appear soon (hours, mostly days or weeks, more rarely months afterward) after the trauma; --when the pains are accompanied by considerable vasovegetative symptoms (cold sweats, cyanosis, hyperhidrosis and others). Secondary algodystrophic changes (muscle, joints, bones, and skin) are to be considered. In quantitatively judging the effects, an over-evaluation, as well as an underevaluation, is to be avoided by all means. Therapeutic effects and spontaneous remission after six to twelve months are to be considered. An exemplary case, in which a deterioriation of the capacity to work from 20 to 100% (!) was assumed, showed the need for taking the personality structure of patient into consideration. PMID:2399634

  17. Opinion dynamics of modified Hegselmann-Krause model in a group-based population with heterogeneous bounded confidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Guiyuan; Zhang, Weidong; Li, Zhijun

    2015-02-01

    Continuous opinion dynamics in a group-based population with heterogeneous bounded confidences is considered in this paper. A slightly modified Hegselmann-Krause model is proposed, and agents are classified into three categories: open-minded-, moderate-minded-, and closed-minded-agents, while the whole population is divided into three subgroups accordingly. We study how agents of each category and the population size can affect opinion dynamics. It is observed that the number of final opinion clusters is dominated by the closed-minded agents; open-minded agents cannot contribute to forming opinion consensus and the existence of open-minded agents may diversify the final opinions instead; for the fixed population size and proportion of closed-minded agents, the relative size of the largest final opinion cluster varies along concave-parabola-like curve as the proportion of open-minded agents increases, and there is a tipping point when the number of open-minded agents is almost equal to that of moderate-minded agents; for the fixed proportion of the three categories in the population, as the population size becomes larger, the number of final opinion clusters will reach a plateau. Some of the results are different from the previous studies.

  18. Opinion dynamics in networks with common-neighbors-based connections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Huanjing; Shang, Lihui

    2015-03-01

    We investigate opinion dynamics of the model in which each agent can communicate with local neighbors whose opinions are inside the bound of confidence and meanwhile selecting long-range neighbors according to a common-neighbors rule. The common-neighbors rule means that two agents sharing more neighbors have larger probability to be connected. We find that increasing communication between agents who have common friends will prolong the time needed for the system to reach a consensus state. In contrast, the long-range connections between agents sharing no friends will promote the convergence of the system. The generality of this observation is tested against different system sizes. Simulation results also show that a large number of long-range connections help the system to reach a consensus fast.

  19. Multi-level tolerance opinion dynamics in military command and control networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Xiao; Shi, Wen; Tan, Gary; Ma, Yaofei

    2015-11-01

    Opinion exchange is useful when a military agent needs to take the opinions of others into account before decision making. Few studies have addressed opinion dynamics in military command and control (C2) organizations, which are often hierarchically ranked in a tree structure. Moreover, military agents should have different tolerance levels when communicating with differentially ranked agents, which is our reasoning for proposing an opinion dynamics model with multi-level tolerance in this study. We can use this model to test opinion dynamics models in depth and further analyze and compare them to traditional tree organizations and other organization forms, including small-world and scale-free networks. Opinion dynamics experiments show that although traditional indices such as a clustering coefficient or the average distance of a small-world network are worse than those of a scale-free network, opinion dynamics indices, which include the number of rounds to fixed opinions, number of opinion clusters, and relative size of the largest small-world cluster are unexpectedly better than those of a scale-free network. Moreover, adding links to a tree network can enhance the tendency to consensus, while a small-world network needs fewer links compared to a scale-free network.

  20. Sources of correlation between experts: Empirical results from two extremes

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1987-04-01

    Through two studies, this report seeks to identify the sources of correlation, or dependence, between experts' estimates. Expert estimates are relied upon as sources of data whenever experimental data is lacking, such as in risk analyses and reliability assessments. Correlation between experts is a problem in the elicitation and subsequent use of subjective estimates. Until now, there have been no data confirming sources of correlation, although the experts' background is commonly speculated to be one. Two different populations of experts were administered questions in their areas of expertise. Data on their professional backgrounds and means of solving the questions were elicited using techniques from educational psychology and ethnography. The results from both studies indicate that the way in which an expert solves the problem is the major source of correlation. The experts' background can not be shown to be an important source of correlation nor to influence his choice of method for problem solution. From these results, some recommendations are given for the elicitation and use of expert opinion.

  1. Intelligent Agents as Cognitive Tools for Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baylor, Amy

    1999-01-01

    Examines the educational potential for intelligent agents as cognitive tools. Discusses the role of intelligent agents: managing large amounts of information (information overload), serving as a pedagogical expert, and creating programming environments for the learner. (AEF)

  2. Expert elicitation on the uncertainties associated with chronic wasting disease.

    PubMed

    Tyshenko, Michael G; Oraby, Tamer; Darshan, Shalu; Westphal, Margit; Croteau, Maxine C; Aspinall, Willy; Elsaadany, Susie; Krewski, Daniel; Cashman, Neil

    2016-01-01

    A high degree of uncertainty exists for chronic wasting disease (CWD) transmission factors in farmed and wild cervids. Evaluating the factors is important as it helps to inform future risk management strategies. Expert opinion is often used to assist decision making in a number of health, science, and technology domains where data may be sparse or missing. Using the "Classical Model" of elicitation, a group of experts was asked to estimate the most likely values for several risk factors affecting CWD transmission. The formalized expert elicitation helped structure the issues and hence provide a rational basis for estimating some transmission risk factors for which evidence is lacking. Considered judgments regarding environmental transmission, latency of CWD transmission, management, and species barrier were provided by the experts. Uncertainties for many items were determined to be large, highlighting areas requiring more research. The elicited values may be used as surrogate values until research evidence becomes available. PMID:27556566

  3. Expert elicitation on the uncertainties associated with chronic wasting disease.

    PubMed

    Tyshenko, Michael G; Oraby, Tamer; Darshan, Shalu; Westphal, Margit; Croteau, Maxine C; Aspinall, Willy; Elsaadany, Susie; Krewski, Daniel; Cashman, Neil

    2016-01-01

    A high degree of uncertainty exists for chronic wasting disease (CWD) transmission factors in farmed and wild cervids. Evaluating the factors is important as it helps to inform future risk management strategies. Expert opinion is often used to assist decision making in a number of health, science, and technology domains where data may be sparse or missing. Using the "Classical Model" of elicitation, a group of experts was asked to estimate the most likely values for several risk factors affecting CWD transmission. The formalized expert elicitation helped structure the issues and hence provide a rational basis for estimating some transmission risk factors for which evidence is lacking. Considered judgments regarding environmental transmission, latency of CWD transmission, management, and species barrier were provided by the experts. Uncertainties for many items were determined to be large, highlighting areas requiring more research. The elicited values may be used as surrogate values until research evidence becomes available.

  4. The influence of persuasion in opinion formation and polarization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    La Rocca, C. E.; Braunstein, L. A.; Vazquez, F.

    2014-05-01

    We present a model that explores the influence of persuasion in a population of agents with positive and negative opinion orientations. The opinion of each agent is represented by an integer number k that expresses its level of agreement on a given issue, from totally against k=-M to totally in favor k = M. Same-orientation agents persuade each other with probability p, becoming more extreme, while opposite-orientation agents become more moderate as they reach a compromise with probability q. The population initially evolves to (a) a polarized state for r=p/q\\gt 1 , where opinions' distribution is peaked at the extreme values k=+/- M , or (b) a centralized state for r < 1, with most opinions around k=+/- 1 . When r \\gg 1 , polarization lasts for a time that diverges as r^M \\ln N , where N is the population's size. Finally, an extremist consensus (k = M or -M ) is reached in a time that scales as r^{-1} for r \\ll 1 .

  5. Stochastic opinion formation in scale-free networks

    SciTech Connect

    M. Bartolozzi; D. B. Leinweber; A. W. Thomas

    2005-10-01

    The dynamics of opinion formation in large groups of people is a complex nonlinear phenomenon whose investigation is just beginning. Both collective behavior and personal views play an important role in this mechanism. In the present work we mimic the dynamics of opinion formation of a group of agents, represented by two states 1, as a stochastic response of each agent to the opinion of his/her neighbors in the social network and to feedback from the average opinion of the whole. In the light of recent studies, a scale-free Barabsi-Albert network has been selected to simulate the topology of the interactions. A turbulent-like dynamics, characterized by an intermittent behavior, is observed for a certain range of the model parameters. The problem of uncertainty in decision taking is also addressed both from a topological point of view, using random and targeted removal of agents from the network, and by implementing a three-state model, where the third state, zero, is related to the information available to each agent. Finally, the results of the model are tested against the best known network of social interactions: the stock market. A time series of daily closures of the Dow-Jones index has been used as an indicator of the possible applicability of our model in the financial context. Good qualitative agreement is found.

  6. Chaotic Modes in Scale Free Opinion Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kusmartsev, Feo V.; Kürten, Karl E.

    2010-12-01

    In this paper, we investigate processes associated with formation of public opinion in varies directed random, scale free and small-world social networks. The important factor of the opinion formation is the existence of contrarians which were discovered by Granovetter in various social psychology experiments1,2,3 long ago and later introduced in sociophysics by Galam.4 When the density of contrarians increases the system behavior drastically changes at some critical value. At high density of contrarians the system can never arrive to a consensus state and periodically oscillates with different periods depending on specific structure of the network. At small density of the contrarians the behavior is manifold. It depends primary on the initial state of the system. If initially the majority of the population agrees with each other a state of stable majority may be easily reached. However when originally the population is divided in nearly equal parts consensus can never be reached. We model the emergence of collective decision making by considering N interacting agents, whose opinions are described by two state Ising spin variable associated with YES and NO. We show that the dynamical behaviors are very sensitive not only to the density of the contrarians but also to the network topology. We find that a phase of social chaos may arise in various dynamical processes of opinion formation in many realistic models. We compare the prediction of the theory with data describing the dynamics of the average opinion of the USA population collected on a day-by-day basis by varies media sources during the last six month before the final Obama-McCain election. The qualitative ouctome is in reasonable agreement with the prediction of our theory. In fact, the analyses of these data made within the paradigm of our theory indicates that even in this campaign there were chaotic elements where the public opinion migrated in an unpredictable chaotic way. The existence of such a phase

  7. Chaotic Modes in Scale Free Opinion Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kusmartsev, Feo V.; Kürten, Karl E.

    In this paper, we investigate processes associated with formation of public opinion in varies directed random, scale free and small-world social networks. The important factor of the opinion formation is the existence of contrarians which were discovered by Granovetter in various social psychology experiments1,2,3 long ago and later introduced in sociophysics by Galam.4 When the density of contrarians increases the system behavior drastically changes at some critical value. At high density of contrarians the system can never arrive to a consensus state and periodically oscillates with different periods depending on specific structure of the network. At small density of the contrarians the behavior is manifold. It depends primary on the initial state of the system. If initially the majority of the population agrees with each other a state of stable majority may be easily reached. However when originally the population is divided in nearly equal parts consensus can never be reached. We model the emergence of collective decision making by considering N interacting agents, whose opinions are described by two state Ising spin variable associated with YES and NO. We show that the dynamical behaviors are very sensitive not only to the density of the contrarians but also to the network topology. We find that a phase of social chaos may arise in various dynamical processes of opinion formation in many realistic models. We compare the prediction of the theory with data describing the dynamics of the average opinion of the USA population collected on a day-by-day basis by varies media sources during the last six month before the final Obama-McCain election. The qualitative ouctome is in reasonable agreement with the prediction of our theory. In fact, the analyses of these data made within the paradigm of our theory indicates that even in this campaign there were chaotic elements where the public opinion migrated in an unpredictable chaotic way. The existence of such a phase

  8. Death caused by cardioinhibitory reflex: what experts believe.

    PubMed

    Schrag, Bettina; Mangin, Patrice; Vaucher, Paul; Bollmann, Marc D

    2012-03-01

    The danger of neck compression without restriction of the arterial flow remains unresolved in forensic medicine. There is an ongoing debate concerning life endangerment due to the cardioinhibitory reflex. The aim of this study was to determine what forensic medical experts believe and how they deal with this reflex. An anonymous electronic questionnaire was sent to 1429 forensic medical experts all over the world. We asked them about their opinion on the cardioinhibitory reflex, its role in causing death, and what their diagnostic criteria were.A total of 182 questionnaires were returned. The experts who answered were from 32 different countries. Our survey showed that 80.2% of experts believe that the cardioinhibitory reflex can theoretically cause death. In the practical application opinions diverge though. Apparently, the practical application mainly depends on the habit of the individual expert. We observed no consensus on the diagnostic criteria to be used. Given the potentially frequent use of the concept of the cardioinhibitory reflex in forensic practice and its judicial impact it would be important to reach a consensus. PMID:22442830

  9. How Public Opinion is Formed

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Block, Edward M.

    1977-01-01

    Investigates the evolution of the definition of public relations by examining cultural and personal determinants of public opinion. Outlines functions of communicators and opinionmakers in forming and influencing public opinion. Available from: Public Relations Review, Ray Hiebert, Dean, College of Journalism, University of Maryland, College Park,…

  10. Public Opinion and the Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nature Study, 1974

    1974-01-01

    According to a public opinion survey conducted by the President's Council on Environmental Quality, environmental issues remain very important in the minds of the public and the energy crisis appears to have had little effect on public opinion. A summary of results of each topic polled is included. (MLB)

  11. Autonomous power expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walters, Jerry L.; Petrik, Edward J.; Roth, Mary Ellen; Truong, Long Van; Quinn, Todd; Krawczonek, Walter M.

    1990-01-01

    The Autonomous Power Expert (APEX) system was designed to monitor and diagnose fault conditions that occur within the Space Station Freedom Electrical Power System (SSF/EPS) Testbed. APEX is designed to interface with SSF/EPS testbed power management controllers to provide enhanced autonomous operation and control capability. The APEX architecture consists of three components: (1) a rule-based expert system, (2) a testbed data acquisition interface, and (3) a power scheduler interface. Fault detection, fault isolation, justification of probable causes, recommended actions, and incipient fault analysis are the main functions of the expert system component. The data acquisition component requests and receives pertinent parametric values from the EPS testbed and asserts the values into a knowledge base. Power load profile information is obtained from a remote scheduler through the power scheduler interface component. The current APEX design and development work is discussed. Operation and use of APEX by way of the user interface screens is also covered.

  12. Attorneys' requests for complete tax records from opposing expert witnesses: some approaches to the problem.

    PubMed

    Gutheil, Thomas G; Simon, Robert I; Simpson, Skip

    2006-01-01

    As part of an impeachment attempt on cross-examination of opposing expert witnesses in trial or deposition, the cross-examining attorney may request the complete tax records of the expert. It is widely believed that expert witnesses may be expected to express opinions that favor the parties who engage them and who pay their fees. Theoretically, the purpose of this request is an attempt to paint the expert as a "hired gun" whose major source of income is forensic work. The different issues, statutes, and case law citations that bear on requests for tax records are reviewed, and the strategies for coping with this tactic are suggested. PMID:17185482

  13. Expert Recommended Strategies for Classroom Management for Beginning Teachers Placed in Hard-to-Staff Schools in Urban School Districts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alexis, Chelly C.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to get the opinion of a panel of experts as to which classroom management strategies should be implemented in urban school district mentoring programs to help beginning teachers who are placed in hard-to-staff schools in Los Angeles County, California. Methodology: This Delphi study included 20 expert mentors…

  14. Expert Cold Structure Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atkins, T.; Demuysere, P.

    2011-05-01

    The EXPERT Program is funded by ESA. The objective of the EXPERT mission is to perform a sub-orbital flight during which measurements of critical aero- thermodynamic phenomena will be obtained by using state-of-the-art instrumentation. As part of the EXPERT Flight Segment, the responsibility of the Cold Structure Development Design, Manufacturing and Validation was committed to the Belgian industrial team SONACA/SABCA. The EXPERT Cold Structure includes the Launcher Adapter, the Bottom Panel, the Upper Panel, two Cross Panels and the Parachute Bay. An additional Launcher Adapter was manufactured for the separation tests. The selected assembly definition and manufacturing technologies ( machined parts and sandwich panels) were dictated classically by the mass and stiffness, but also by the CoG location and the sensitive separation interface. Used as support for the various on-board equipment, the Cold Structure is fixed to but thermally uncoupled from the PM 1000 thermal shield. It is protect on its bottom panel by a thermal blanket. As it is a protoflight, analysis was the main tool for the verification. Low level stiffness and modal analysis tests have also been performed on the Cold Structure equipped with its ballast. It allowed to complete its qualification and to prepare SONACA/SABCA support for the system dynamic tests foreseen in 2011. The structure was finally coated with a thermal control black painting and delivered on time to Thales Alenia Space-Italy end of March 201.

  15. Computers Simulate Human Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roberts, Steven K.

    1983-01-01

    Discusses recent progress in artificial intelligence in such narrowly defined areas as medical and electronic diagnosis. Also discusses use of expert systems, man-machine communication problems, novel programing environments (including comments on LISP and LISP machines), and types of knowledge used (factual, heuristic, and meta-knowledge). (JN)

  16. Capital Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dowell, Laurie; Gary, Jack; Illingworth, Bill; Sargent, Tom

    1987-05-01

    Gathering information, necessary forms, and financial calculations needed to generate a "capital investment proposal" is an extremely complex and difficult process. The intent of the capital investment proposal is to ensure management that the proposed investment has been thoroughly investigated and will have a positive impact on corporate goals. Meeting this requirement typically takes four or five experts a total of 12 hours to generate a "Capital Package." A Capital Expert System was therefore developed using "Personal Consultant." The completed system is hybrid and as such does not depend solely on rules but incorporates several different software packages that communicate through variables and functions passed from one to another. This paper describes the use of expert system techniques, methodology in building the knowledge base, contexts, LISP functions, data base, and special challenges that had to be overcome to create this system. The Capital Expert System is the successful result of a unique integration of artificial intelligence with business accounting, financial forms generation, and investment proposal expertise.

  17. Expert Systems Research.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duda, Richard O.; Shortliffe, Edward H.

    1983-01-01

    Discusses a class of artificial intelligence computer programs (often called "expert systems" because they address problems normally thought to require human specialists for their solution) intended to serve as consultants for decision making. Also discusses accomplishments (including information systematization in medical diagnosis and geology)…

  18. Robot environment expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Potter, J. L.

    1985-01-01

    The Robot Environment Expert System uses a hexidecimal tree data structure to model a complex robot environment where not only the robot arm moves, but also the robot itself and other objects may move. The hextree model allows dynamic updating, collision avoidance and path planning over time, to avoid moving objects.

  19. Experts, Dialects, and Discourse.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bhatt, Rakesh Mohan

    2002-01-01

    Examines "expert" discourse--complexes of signs and practices that organize and legitimize social existence and social reproduction--to demonstrate the ideological process involved in the manufacture of Standard English ideology and its continual duplication as necessitated by the three axiomatic conceptions of the English-sacred imagined…

  20. From mental health professional to expert witness: testifying in court.

    PubMed

    Bank, S C

    1996-01-01

    Our democratic principles rest on the belief that truth is discovered through the fair and open combat of ideas in a court of law. When mental health professionals participate in this adversary process as expert witnesses, it is essential for them to understand that attorneys will attempt to impeach their credibility. Mental health professionals who appreciate the spirit and mechanics of courtroom communication will be best prepared to protect the integrity of their testimony. The courtroom communications model provides experts with a conceptual framework utilizing three components: the speaker is the expert, the message is testimony, and the audience is the judge or jury. Within the structure of this model, communication principles from social psychology can be used to enhance the clarity of testimony and to prevent attorneys from distorting the expert's opinions. First and foremost, expert witness testimony must be formulated upon accepted scholarly and ethical standards. To establish credibility, experts must appear knowledgeable and trustworthy to the judge and jury. The expert must come to court prepared for both direct examination and cross-examination; know when to emphasize logic or emotion, tailor speech in order to reach the maximum number of jurors, and remain nondefensive by projecting the same demeanor regardless of which side is conducting the examination. The role of the expert witness is forever changing because the judicial system--like the mental health field--continues to evolve. Although the adversary process has undergone dramatic changes over the past eight hundred years, historical vestiges continue to echo throughout our courtrooms. Today, expert witnesses are the champions of victims and the accused. Legal disputes are increasingly being decided by the battle of the experts who must undergo the ordeal of cross-examination. When you consider the brutality of ancient ordeals, responding to attorneys armed with questions may not seem so

  1. [Medico-legal opinions in penal cases provided by clinicians and forensic medicine specialists--comparative analysis].

    PubMed

    Chowaniec, Czesław; Chowaniec, Małgorzata; Nowak, Agnieszka

    2005-01-01

    From the practice of the Forensic Medicine Department, Medical University of Silesia, Katowice it appears that in criminal cases the level of medico-legal opinions provided by experts appointed by the district court or 'ad hoc' is very low. The analysis of the chosen files shoved a divergence of opinions given to the adopted motions as well as numerous offences to regulations in the nature of a consultative error. In the paper the authors have made an attempt to appraise causes of the above mentioned problems such as: 1. the lack of medico-legal knowledge and experience in court experts. 2. excessive ease of registration to the panel of court experts and the lack of processes which verify the qualifications of experts. 3. the lack of judicial control over expert's opinions and common acceptance of their work. 4. ignorance of the obligatory penal law. 5. ignorance of the basic rules for giving medico-legal opinions (legal consequences, casual nexus). 6. excessive but groundless self-confidence in experts. 7. the lack of a correct way of thinking and conclusion making. The aim of the paper was to pay close attention to the absolute need of verification of court experts' qualifications and work.

  2. Interplay between consensus and coherence in a model of interacting opinions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Battiston, Federico; Cairoli, Andrea; Nicosia, Vincenzo; Baule, Adrian; Latora, Vito

    2016-06-01

    The formation of agents' opinions in a social system is the result of an intricate equilibrium among several driving forces. On the one hand, the social pressure exerted by peers favors the emergence of local consensus. On the other hand, the concurrent participation of agents to discussions on different topics induces each agent to develop a coherent set of opinions across all the topics in which he/she is active. Moreover, the pervasive action of external stimuli, such as mass media, pulls the entire population towards a specific configuration of opinions on different topics. Here we propose a model in which agents with interrelated opinions, interacting on several layers representing different topics, tend to spread their own ideas to their neighborhood, strive to maintain internal coherence, due to the fact that each agent identifies meaningful relationships among its opinions on the different topics, and are at the same time subject to external fields, resembling the pressure of mass media. We show that the presence of heterogeneity in the internal coupling assigned by agents to their different opinions allows to obtain states with mixed levels of consensus, still ensuring that all the agents attain a coherent set of opinions. Furthermore, we show that all the observed features of the model are preserved in the presence of thermal noise up to a critical temperature, after which global consensus is no longer attainable. This suggests the relevance of our results for real social systems, where noise is inevitably present in the form of information uncertainty and misunderstandings. The model also demonstrates how mass media can be effectively used to favor the propagation of a chosen set of opinions, thus polarizing the consensus of an entire population.

  3. Non-consensus opinion model with a neutral view on complex networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Zihao; Dong, Gaogao; Du, Ruijin; Ma, Jing

    2016-05-01

    A nonconsensus opinion (NCO) model was introduced recently, which allows the stable coexistence of minority and majority opinions. However, due ​to disparities in the knowledge, experiences, and personality or self-protection of agents, they often remain ​neutral when faced with some opinions in real scenarios. ​To address this issue, we propose a general non-consensus opinion model with neutral view (NCON) ​and we define the dynamic opinion ​change process. We applied the NCON model to different topological networks and studied the formation of opinion clusters. In the case of random graphs, random regular networks, and scale-free (SF) networks, we found that the system moved from a continuous phase transition to a discontinuous phase transition as the connectivity density and exponent of the SF network λ ​decreased and increased in the steady state, respectively. Moreover, the initial proportions of neutral opinions were found to have little effect on the proportional structure of opinions at the steady state. These results suggest that the majority choice between positive and negative opinions depends on the initial proportion of each opinion. The NCON model may have potential applications for decision makers.

  4. Use of Public Opinion Surveys.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Copeland, Susan

    2002-01-01

    Describes how to design and administer public-opinion surveys. Includes types of surveys, preparing survey questions, drawing and validating a sample, and processing the data. (Contains 16 references.) (PKP)

  5. Discrete Model of Opinion Changes Using Knowledge and Emotions as Control Variables

    PubMed Central

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    2012-01-01

    We present a new model of opinion changes dependent on the agents emotional state and their information about the issue in question. Our goal is to construct a simple, yet nontrivial and flexible representation of individual attitude dynamics for agent based simulations, that could be used in a variety of social environments. The model is a discrete version of the cusp catastrophe model of opinion dynamics in which information is treated as the normal factor while emotional arousal (agitation level determining agent receptiveness and rationality) is treated as the splitting factor. Both variables determine the resulting agent opinion, which itself can be in favor of the studied position, against it, or neutral. Thanks to the flexibility of implementing communication between the agents, the model is potentially applicable in a wide range of situations. As an example of the model application, we study the dynamics of a set of agents communicating among themselves via messages. In the example, we chose the simplest, fully connected communication topology, to focus on the effects of the individual opinion dynamics, and to look for stable final distributions of agents with different emotions, information and opinions. Even for such simplified system, the model shows complex behavior, including phase transitions due to symmetry breaking by external propaganda. PMID:22984516

  6. Bioethics for Technical Experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asano, Shigetaka

    Along with rapidly expanding applications of life science and technology, technical experts have been implicated more and more often with ethical, social, and legal problems than before. It should be noted that in this background there are scientific and social uncertainty elements which are inevitable during the progress of life science in addition to the historically-established social unreliability to scientists and engineers. In order to solve these problems, therefore, we should establish the social governance with ‘relief’ and ‘reliance’ which enables for both citizens and engineers to share the awareness of the issues, to design social orders and criterions based on hypothetical sense of values for bioethics, to carry out practical use management of each subject carefully, and to improve the sense of values from hypothetical to universal. Concerning these measures, the technical experts can learn many things from the present performance in the medical field.

  7. Feasibility analysis of the value of Q method in the classification and understanding of expert experience.

    PubMed

    Liu, Meng-yu; Li, Yong; Lu, Ai-ping; Han, Xue-jie

    2013-11-01

    The Q method, combining qualitative and quantitative methods, refers to the qualitative analysis of Q-sorts based on quantitative techniques. It is used to research individual subjective experience, analyzing consensus and divergence to identify and categorize subjects' viewpoints. The sorting process is completely performed by the subjects, independent of study researchers. The Q method in medical research has been applied in many fields, including nursing care, clinical studies, doctor and patient's perceptions, health evaluation and decision making. The authors used the Q method to research Chinese medicine (CM) group decision making, exploring its practical feasibility in this important field. Four primary domains are addressed: (1) integration of expert opinion; (2) expert classification; (3) ascertaining the entire viewpoint orientation of a certain type of expert; and (4) comparison of expert opinion using an additional perspective. The essence of the Q method caters to the CM thinking model and should be introduced into CM and explored more deeply.

  8. ALICE Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ionita, C.; Carena, F.

    2014-06-01

    The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in different system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by regular shifters during the next data taking period.

  9. Role of conviction in nonequilibrium models of opinion formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crokidakis, Nuno; Anteneodo, Celia

    2012-12-01

    We analyze the critical behavior of a class of discrete opinion models in the presence of disorder. Within this class, each agent opinion takes a discrete value (±1 or 0) and its time evolution is ruled by two terms, one representing agent-agent interactions and the other the degree of conviction or persuasion (a self-interaction). The mean-field limit, where each agent can interact evenly with any other, is considered. Disorder is introduced in the strength of both interactions, with either quenched or annealed random variables. With probability p (1-p), a pairwise interaction reflects a negative (positive) coupling, while the degree of conviction also follows a binary probability distribution (two different discrete probability distributions are considered). Numerical simulations show that a nonequilibrium continuous phase transition, from a disordered state to a state with a prevailing opinion, occurs at a critical point pc that depends on the distribution of the convictions, with the transition being spoiled in some cases. We also show how the critical line, for each model, is affected by the update scheme (either parallel or sequential) as well as by the kind of disorder (either quenched or annealed).

  10. [Disease--defence--manipulation: the difficulties in providing forensic-psychiatry opinions].

    PubMed

    Heitzman, Janusz; Opio, Małgorzata; Waszkiewicz-Białek, Ewa

    2008-01-01

    The challenges met by the psychiatrist and the psychologist and the difficulties in providing forensic-psychiatry and forensic-psychology opinions have been reviewed, based on examples. The studied patient was hospitalised 10 times and the forensic-psychiatry opinion passed 15 times during the judiciary process. Different psychiatric diagnoses were made and different soundness of mind were passed. The psychiatric health status were expresses by professors of psychiatry who did not participate directly in passing the forensic-psychiatry opinion. The studied patient was examined by other specialists and assessed by certificating medical doctors with the aim of getting disability pension benefits. The effect of medical certificates and testimonials from different medical doctors were analysed. Analysing this example, revealed the problem of proper formulation of content of medical documents to support the medical diagnosis and declared soundness of mind during the passing of forensic-psychiatry opinion. The doctors treating the patients and doctors passing opinion on the treated patient had a different assessment of the diagnoses and soundness of mind for the studied patients. Irrespective of the immediate aim of the examinations, all professionals providing assessment should mind the consequences of opinions passed by them and especially, the possibility of the opinion being used by the subject to prolong the judiciary process or even avoid legal responsibility. The independence (sovereignty) of the expert requires consideration in the context of prior multiple forensic-psychiatry opinion leaders in the field of psychiatry and the need for the expert to assume an attitude towards these opinions.

  11. [Disease--defence--manipulation: the difficulties in providing forensic-psychiatry opinions].

    PubMed

    Heitzman, Janusz; Opio, Małgorzata; Waszkiewicz-Białek, Ewa

    2008-01-01

    The challenges met by the psychiatrist and the psychologist and the difficulties in providing forensic-psychiatry and forensic-psychology opinions have been reviewed, based on examples. The studied patient was hospitalised 10 times and the forensic-psychiatry opinion passed 15 times during the judiciary process. Different psychiatric diagnoses were made and different soundness of mind were passed. The psychiatric health status were expresses by professors of psychiatry who did not participate directly in passing the forensic-psychiatry opinion. The studied patient was examined by other specialists and assessed by certificating medical doctors with the aim of getting disability pension benefits. The effect of medical certificates and testimonials from different medical doctors were analysed. Analysing this example, revealed the problem of proper formulation of content of medical documents to support the medical diagnosis and declared soundness of mind during the passing of forensic-psychiatry opinion. The doctors treating the patients and doctors passing opinion on the treated patient had a different assessment of the diagnoses and soundness of mind for the studied patients. Irrespective of the immediate aim of the examinations, all professionals providing assessment should mind the consequences of opinions passed by them and especially, the possibility of the opinion being used by the subject to prolong the judiciary process or even avoid legal responsibility. The independence (sovereignty) of the expert requires consideration in the context of prior multiple forensic-psychiatry opinion leaders in the field of psychiatry and the need for the expert to assume an attitude towards these opinions. PMID:19189604

  12. 39 CFR 310.6 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ..., 475 L'Enfant Plaza SW., Washington, DC 20260-1100. A numbered series of advisory opinions is available... 39 Postal Service 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Advisory opinions. 310.6 Section 310.6 Postal... PRIVATE EXPRESS STATUTES § 310.6 Advisory opinions. An advisory opinion on any question arising under...

  13. Towards a Fuzzy Expert System on Toxicological Data Quality Assessment.

    PubMed

    Yang, Longzhi; Neagu, Daniel; Cronin, Mark T D; Hewitt, Mark; Enoch, Steven J; Madden, Judith C; Przybylak, Katarzyna

    2013-01-01

    Quality assessment (QA) requires high levels of domain-specific experience and knowledge. QA tasks for toxicological data are usually performed by human experts manually, although a number of quality evaluation schemes have been proposed in the literature. For instance, the most widely utilised Klimisch scheme1 defines four data quality categories in order to tag data instances with respect to their qualities; ToxRTool2 is an extension of the Klimisch approach aiming to increase the transparency and harmonisation of the approach. Note that the processes of QA in many other areas have been automatised by employing expert systems. Briefly, an expert system is a computer program that uses a knowledge base built upon human expertise, and an inference engine that mimics the reasoning processes of human experts to infer new statements from incoming data. In particular, expert systems have been extended to deal with the uncertainty of information by representing uncertain information (such as linguistic terms) as fuzzy sets under the framework of fuzzy set theory and performing inferences upon fuzzy sets according to fuzzy arithmetic. This paper presents an experimental fuzzy expert system for toxicological data QA which is developed on the basis of the Klimisch approach and the ToxRTool in an effort to illustrate the power of expert systems to toxicologists, and to examine if fuzzy expert systems are a viable solution for QA of toxicological data. Such direction still faces great difficulties due to the well-known common challenge of toxicological data QA that "five toxicologists may have six opinions". In the meantime, this challenge may offer an opportunity for expert systems because the construction and refinement of the knowledge base could be a converging process of different opinions which is of significant importance for regulatory policy making under the regulation of REACH, though a consensus may never be reached. Also, in order to facilitate the implementation

  14. Nursing opinion leadership: a preliminary model derived from philosophic theories of rational belief.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Christine A; Whall, Ann L

    2013-10-01

    Opinion leaders are informal leaders who have the ability to influence others' decisions about adopting new products, practices or ideas. In the healthcare setting, the importance of translating new research evidence into practice has led to interest in understanding how opinion leaders could be used to speed this process. Despite continued interest, gaps in understanding opinion leadership remain. Agent-based models are computer models that have proven to be useful for representing dynamic and contextual phenomena such as opinion leadership. The purpose of this paper is to describe the work conducted in preparation for the development of an agent-based model of nursing opinion leadership. The aim of this phase of the model development project was to clarify basic assumptions about opinions, the individual attributes of opinion leaders and characteristics of the context in which they are effective. The process used to clarify these assumptions was the construction of a preliminary nursing opinion leader model, derived from philosophical theories about belief formation.

  15. Collective opinion formation model under Bayesian updating and confirmation bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishi, Ryosuke; Masuda, Naoki

    2013-06-01

    We propose a collective opinion formation model with a so-called confirmation bias. The confirmation bias is a psychological effect with which, in the context of opinion formation, an individual in favor of an opinion is prone to misperceive new incoming information as supporting the current belief of the individual. Our model modifies a Bayesian decision-making model for single individuals [M. Rabin and J. L. Schrag, Q. J. Econ.0033-553310.1162/003355399555945 114, 37 (1999)] for the case of a well-mixed population of interacting individuals in the absence of the external input. We numerically simulate the model to show that all the agents eventually agree on one of the two opinions only when the confirmation bias is weak. Otherwise, the stochastic population dynamics ends up creating a disagreement configuration (also called polarization), particularly for large system sizes. A strong confirmation bias allows various final disagreement configurations with different fractions of the individuals in favor of the opposite opinions.

  16. Expert and Knowledge Based Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Demaid, Adrian; Edwards, Lyndon

    1987-01-01

    Discusses the nature and current state of knowledge-based systems and expert systems. Describes an expert system from the viewpoints of a computer programmer and an applications expert. Addresses concerns related to materials selection and forecasts future developments in the teaching of materials engineering. (ML)

  17. Expert Systems and Special Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hofmeister, Alan M.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

    1986-01-01

    The article discusses the characteristics of expert systems (computer programs designed to replicate human expertise in a variety of areas), describes recently available expert system development tools, suggests applications within the field of special education, and reviews recent efforts to apply expert systems technology to special education…

  18. Expert systems development and application

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duke, E. L.; Regenie, V. A.

    1985-01-01

    Current research in the application of expert systems to problems in the flight research environment is discussed. In what is anticipated to be a broad research area, a real time expert system flight status monitor has been identified as the initial project. This real time expert system flight status monitor is described in terms of concept, application, development, and schedule.

  19. Opinions Differ by Expertise in Mycobacterium avium Complex Disease

    PubMed Central

    Prevots, D. Rebecca; Jamieson, Frances B.; Winthrop, Kevin L.

    2014-01-01

    Rationale: Pulmonary Mycobacterium avium complex treatment guidelines rely largely on expert opinion. The extent to which nonexperts agree with recommendations of experts in this clinical area is unknown. Objectives: We sought to compare practices and perceptions of prognosis between experts and nonexperts. Methods: We surveyed respirologists (Ontario, Canada, “nonexperts”) and experts from nontuberculous mycobacterial disease centers of excellence (Canada and United States). Measurements and Main Results: Forty-six Ontario respirologists (29% of 160) and 19 experts (73% of 26) participated. There was agreement between nonexperts and experts regarding disease duration before diagnosis (2 yr), likelihood of spontaneous remission (7–15%), typical duration of treatment (18 mo), first choice of therapy (guideline regimens), a subgroup of patients for whom less-intensive regimens are favored (10% after recurrence), likelihood of recurrence (30%), and median survival (10 yr in most patients). Noted differences were that nonexperts estimated fewer patients with a positive culture had disease (30% vs. 50%, P = 0.02), used intensive guidelines therapy less often in new cases (50% vs. 79%, P = 0.02), and perceived a slightly lower success rate with guidelines therapy (65% vs. 75%, P = 0.047). Response ranges were wider for nonexperts, significantly so for selection of intensive guidelines therapy in new (P = 0.01) and recurrent (P = 0.04) cases. Conclusion: Experts and nonexperts agreed on many issues. However, nonexperts perceived lower rates of disease among patients with isolates, tended to use less aggressive treatment approaches, and perceived lower success rates. Significant variability was observed in responses—often wider among nonexperts. Although these results are likely biased by referral, they may identify important areas for targeted education. PMID:24083335

  20. Antifolate Agents: A Patent Review (2006–2010)

    PubMed Central

    Wright, Dennis L.; Anderson, Amy C.

    2011-01-01

    Introduction For over 50 years, drugs targeting the folate pathway have significantly impacted disease treatment as anticancer, antimicrobial and immunomodulatory agents. The discovery of novel antifolate agents with improved properties and superior activities remains an attractive strategy, both in academia and the pharmaceutical industry. Areas covered This review surveys the patent literature from 2006–2010 for small molecule inhibitors of enzymatic targets in the folate biosynthetic pathway. Expert opinion The pursuit of antifolates as anticancer and antimicrobial agents continues to be an active area of research. New patent disclosures reveal novel antifolate scaffolds, antifolates with improved drug-like properties and new strategies to effectively target cancer cells. The continued use of high resolution structural information has guided the discovery of several compounds. Owing to the need for high levels of potency and selectivity, especially in targeting pathogenic species, the use of high resolution crystal structures remains an important tool to guide the design of novel antifolates. Interestingly, the patents disclosing novel compounds were ones where X-ray crystallography was an integral component of the design process. Finally, a variety of new structures have been reported that may play an important role in the future development of therapeutic antifolates. PMID:21619471

  1. Radiation countermeasure agents: an update (2011 – 2014)

    PubMed Central

    Newman, Victoria L; Romaine, Patricia LP; Wise, Stephen Y; Seed, Thomas M

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Despite significant scientific advances over the past 60 years towards the development of a safe, nontoxic and effective radiation countermeasure for the acute radiation syndrome (ARS), no drug has been approved by the US FDA. A radiation countermeasure to protect the population at large from the effects of lethal radiation exposure remains a significant unmet medical need of the US citizenry and, thus, has been recognized as a high priority area by the government. Area covered This article reviews relevant publications and patents for recent developments and progress for potential ARS treatments in the area of radiation countermeasures. Emphasis is placed on the advanced development of existing agents since 2011 and new agents identified as radiation countermeasure for ARS during this period. Expert opinion A number of promising radiation countermeasures are currently under development, seven of which have received US FDA investigational new drug status for clinical investigation. Four of these agents, CBLB502, Ex-RAD, HemaMax and OrbeShield, are progressing with large animal studies and clinical trials. G-CSF has high potential and well-documented therapeutic effects in countering myelosuppression and may receive full licensing approval by the US FDA in the future. PMID:25315070

  2. The imported forensic expert

    SciTech Connect

    Larson, C.P.

    1980-09-01

    A review of the experiences of one of the pioneer forensic pathologists in the United States offers an interesting insight into the possibilities of private forensic pathology in America. The author's experience includes serving as President of the National Boxing Association and the International Boxing Association, during which time he made many improvements in ring safety. His research into several areas of cases of product liability offer an insight to the wide scope of the potential of the forensic expert. This presentation reviews his activities in realms widely afield from medicine.

  3. The Undecided Have the Key: Interaction-Driven Opinion Dynamics in a Three State Model.

    PubMed

    Balenzuela, Pablo; Pinasco, Juan Pablo; Semeshenko, Viktoriya

    2015-01-01

    The effects of interpersonal interactions on individual's agreements result in a social aggregation process which is reflected in the formation of collective states, as for instance, groups of individuals with a similar opinion about a given issue. This field, which has been a longstanding concern of sociologists and psychologists, has been extended into an area of experimental social psychology, and even has attracted the attention of physicists and mathematicians. In this article, we present a novel model of opinion formation in which agents may either have a strict preference for a choice, or be undecided. The opinion shift emerges, in a threshold process, as a consequence of a cumulative persuasion for either one of the two opinions in repeated interactions. There are two main ingredients which play key roles in determining the steady states: the initial fraction of undecided agents and the change in agents' persuasion after each interaction. As a function of these two parameters, the model presents a wide range of solutions, among which there are consensus of each opinion and bi-polarization. We found that a minimum fraction of undecided agents is not crucial for reaching consensus only, but also to determine a dominant opinion in a polarized situation. In order to gain a deeper comprehension of the dynamics, we also present the theoretical framework of the model. The master equations are of special interest for their nontrivial properties and difficulties in being solved analytically. PMID:26436421

  4. The Undecided Have the Key: Interaction-Driven Opinion Dynamics in a Three State Model.

    PubMed

    Balenzuela, Pablo; Pinasco, Juan Pablo; Semeshenko, Viktoriya

    2015-01-01

    The effects of interpersonal interactions on individual's agreements result in a social aggregation process which is reflected in the formation of collective states, as for instance, groups of individuals with a similar opinion about a given issue. This field, which has been a longstanding concern of sociologists and psychologists, has been extended into an area of experimental social psychology, and even has attracted the attention of physicists and mathematicians. In this article, we present a novel model of opinion formation in which agents may either have a strict preference for a choice, or be undecided. The opinion shift emerges, in a threshold process, as a consequence of a cumulative persuasion for either one of the two opinions in repeated interactions. There are two main ingredients which play key roles in determining the steady states: the initial fraction of undecided agents and the change in agents' persuasion after each interaction. As a function of these two parameters, the model presents a wide range of solutions, among which there are consensus of each opinion and bi-polarization. We found that a minimum fraction of undecided agents is not crucial for reaching consensus only, but also to determine a dominant opinion in a polarized situation. In order to gain a deeper comprehension of the dynamics, we also present the theoretical framework of the model. The master equations are of special interest for their nontrivial properties and difficulties in being solved analytically.

  5. The psychiatric expert in court.

    PubMed

    Kenny, A

    1984-05-01

    The law about expert evidence is unsatisfactory: it gives scope for the expert to usurp the role of judge, jury and parliament; it brings the professions of the experts into disrepute; and it sets juries the impossible task of sorting pseudo sciences from genuine ones. The law should be reformed by changing statutes which force expert witnesses to testify beyond their science, by taking the provision of expert evidence out of the adversarial context, and by removing from the courts the decision whether a nascent discipline is or is not a science.

  6. Analysis of cases of forensic veterinary opinions produced in a research and teaching unit.

    PubMed

    Listos, Piotr; Gryzinska, Magdalena; Kowalczyk, Marek

    2015-11-01

    The aim of the study was to present the results of necropsies carried out in the years 2000-2014 in the Department of Pathological Anatomy, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Life Sciences in Lublin. The material used for the analysis consisted of expert opinions prepared on the basis of a decision by a judicial body to admit an expert opinion as evidence. An increase was observed in the demand for the services of veterinary forensic experts, beginning in 2006 and persisting through 2014. The response to the growing popularity of veterinary forensic examinations should be systematization of knowledge and exchange of experience, which would enable the further development of this interdisciplinary science.

  7. How experts gain influence.

    PubMed

    Mikes, Anette; Hall, Matthew; Millo, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    In theory, the risk management groups of two British banks--Saxon and Anglo--had the same influence in their organizations. But in practice, they did not: Saxon's was engaged in critical work throughout the bank, while Anglo's had little visibility outside its areas of expertise. In their study of these two financial institutions, the authors identified four competencies--trailblazing, toolmaking, teamwork, and translation--that help functional leaders or groups compete for top management's limited attention and increase their impact. Anglo's risk managers were strong in only some of the competencies, but Saxon's were strong in all four. They consistently scanned the internal and external environment for important issues to which they could apply a risk management perspective (trailblazing) and then developed tools--such as quarterly risk reports--that spread their expertise (toolmaking). While controlling the tools' design and implementation, the risk managers incorporated business managers' insights (teamwork) and made sure everyone could understand the findings (translation). Ultimately, experts' roles must fit the organization's strategy and structural needs. In some situations, functional experts can raise their profile by cultivating just two of the competencies. But those who are strong in all four are likely to be the most influential. PMID:24730171

  8. Confessions and expert testimony.

    PubMed

    Weiss, Kenneth J

    2003-01-01

    In this clinical paper, the author discusses criminal confessions from the point of view of the expert witness who may be asked to comment on the reliability of the statement and waiver of rights. From the time a suspect is in police custody, constitutional protections against self-incrimination and for due process are in place. The Supreme Court set the standard for these situations in the 1966 Miranda v. Arizona decision. Although it has long been criticized by law enforcement, the decision was upheld in the 2000 decision in Dickerson v. U.S. For a waiver of rights to be valid, it must be a knowing, intelligent, and voluntary decision. Voluntariness is an equation of objective and subjective variables. Treatment by police, physical conditions of interrogation, the suspect's experience and mental state can alter the reliability of a confession. Accordingly, the author has devised a mnemonic for the recognition of conditions that may give rise to expert testimony. The conditions are: Mental illness, Intoxication, Retardation, Acquiescence, Narcotic withdrawal, Deception, and Abuse. These are discussed, supported by examples from the author's practice.

  9. How experts gain influence.

    PubMed

    Mikes, Anette; Hall, Matthew; Millo, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    In theory, the risk management groups of two British banks--Saxon and Anglo--had the same influence in their organizations. But in practice, they did not: Saxon's was engaged in critical work throughout the bank, while Anglo's had little visibility outside its areas of expertise. In their study of these two financial institutions, the authors identified four competencies--trailblazing, toolmaking, teamwork, and translation--that help functional leaders or groups compete for top management's limited attention and increase their impact. Anglo's risk managers were strong in only some of the competencies, but Saxon's were strong in all four. They consistently scanned the internal and external environment for important issues to which they could apply a risk management perspective (trailblazing) and then developed tools--such as quarterly risk reports--that spread their expertise (toolmaking). While controlling the tools' design and implementation, the risk managers incorporated business managers' insights (teamwork) and made sure everyone could understand the findings (translation). Ultimately, experts' roles must fit the organization's strategy and structural needs. In some situations, functional experts can raise their profile by cultivating just two of the competencies. But those who are strong in all four are likely to be the most influential.

  10. Community Size, Perceptions of Majority Opinion and Opinion Expression.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salmon, Charles T.; Oshagan, Hayg

    A study examined structural determinants of opinion expression by merging two theoretical perspectives: the "spiral of silence" model advanced by Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann, and the structural approach to communication research offered by Phillip Tichenor, George Donohue, and Clarice Olien. The study also distinguished between different forms of…

  11. Bipartite opinion forming: Towards consensus over coopetition networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hou, Bo; Chen, Yao; Liu, Guangbin; Sun, Fuchun; Li, Hongbo

    2015-12-01

    Within the framework of signed graph and multi-agent systems, this paper investigates the distributed bipartite opinion forming problem over coopetition networks. Several sufficient algebraic and geometric topology conditions that guarantee consensus, regardless of the magnitudes of individual coupling strengths among the agents, have been derived by exploring the interaction direction patterns. All the criteria presented do not require the global knowledge of the coupling weights of the entire network, and thus are easier to check. The effectiveness of the theoretical results are illustrated by numerical examples.

  12. Expert Elicitation Methods in Quantifying the Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance from Offshore Renewable Energy Developments.

    PubMed

    Donovan, Carl; Harwood, John; King, Stephanie; Booth, Cormac; Caneco, Bruno; Walker, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    There are many developments for offshore renewable energy around the United Kingdom whose installation typically produces large amounts of far-reaching noise, potentially disturbing many marine mammals. The potential to affect the favorable conservation status of many species means extensive environmental impact assessment requirements for the licensing of such installation activities. Quantification of such complex risk problems is difficult and much of the key information is not readily available. Expert elicitation methods can be employed in such pressing cases. We describe the methodology used in an expert elicitation study conducted in the United Kingdom for combining expert opinions based on statistical distributions and copula-like methods.

  13. [To attach importance to expert commentary and to grasp the orientation in academic development].

    PubMed

    He, Shouzhi

    2014-10-01

    The purpose of this article is to make authors and readers master some writing and reading skills by elaborating the definition, characteristics, the comparison of style and writing technique of expert commentary. Expert commentary is journal editorial that is not only author's personal point of view, but also the collective opinions of Ophthalmology Branch of the Chinese Medical Association and editorial board of the magazine. Therefore, it should be view clear, clear-cut stand and having certain academic orientation. It is our common responsibility to promote the academic development of ophthalmology in China, by mobilizing various aspects strength, carefully written and read expert commentary. PMID:25547570

  14. [To attach importance to expert commentary and to grasp the orientation in academic development].

    PubMed

    He, Shouzhi

    2014-10-01

    The purpose of this article is to make authors and readers master some writing and reading skills by elaborating the definition, characteristics, the comparison of style and writing technique of expert commentary. Expert commentary is journal editorial that is not only author's personal point of view, but also the collective opinions of Ophthalmology Branch of the Chinese Medical Association and editorial board of the magazine. Therefore, it should be view clear, clear-cut stand and having certain academic orientation. It is our common responsibility to promote the academic development of ophthalmology in China, by mobilizing various aspects strength, carefully written and read expert commentary.

  15. Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge.

    PubMed

    Chamberlain, Dan E; Pedrini, Paolo; Brambilla, Mattia; Rolando, Antonio; Girardello, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds). For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community.

  16. John H. Wigmore on the abolition of partisan experts.

    PubMed

    Weiss, Kenneth J

    2015-03-01

    The American justice system traditionally has relied on expert witnesses hired by adverse parties, resulting in the appearance of dueling hired guns. There have been attempts to reform the system through court-appointed impartial experts, but trial attorneys have resisted them. Celebrated cases have brought the problem to the forefront--for example, the 1924 murder trial of Richard Loeb and Nathan Leopold, Jr, in Chicago. These young men were on trial for kidnapping and killing a teenage boy. That there was no motive but thrill-seeking incensed citizens, who called for their death. Several psychiatrists testified at the penalty phase. The judge sentenced the defendants to life in prison, ostensibly because of their age. Commenting on the case, John H. Wigmore, Dean of Northwestern Law School and authority on evidence, critiqued the system of partisan experts. This article contains a reprint of his editorial and a discussion of it in the context of evolving expert testimony standards. My conclusion is that a robust but honest airing of opinions is most helpful in criminal cases and that court-appointed experts may be more appropriate in civil and domestic relations matters.

  17. John H. Wigmore on the abolition of partisan experts.

    PubMed

    Weiss, Kenneth J

    2015-03-01

    The American justice system traditionally has relied on expert witnesses hired by adverse parties, resulting in the appearance of dueling hired guns. There have been attempts to reform the system through court-appointed impartial experts, but trial attorneys have resisted them. Celebrated cases have brought the problem to the forefront--for example, the 1924 murder trial of Richard Loeb and Nathan Leopold, Jr, in Chicago. These young men were on trial for kidnapping and killing a teenage boy. That there was no motive but thrill-seeking incensed citizens, who called for their death. Several psychiatrists testified at the penalty phase. The judge sentenced the defendants to life in prison, ostensibly because of their age. Commenting on the case, John H. Wigmore, Dean of Northwestern Law School and authority on evidence, critiqued the system of partisan experts. This article contains a reprint of his editorial and a discussion of it in the context of evolving expert testimony standards. My conclusion is that a robust but honest airing of opinions is most helpful in criminal cases and that court-appointed experts may be more appropriate in civil and domestic relations matters. PMID:25770275

  18. Opinion: Writing for the Public

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rose, Mike

    2010-01-01

    For the past twenty years or so, the author has been fortunate to write for a fairly broad audience. While he was teaching, or running an educational program, or doing research, he was also composing opinion pieces or commentaries about the work he was doing. This process of writing with part of his attention on the classroom or research site and…

  19. Parents' Opinions about Handwriting Styles.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Renaud, Albert J., Jr.; Groff, Patrick J.

    1966-01-01

    To determine the opinions of parents concerning the relative merits of manuscript and cursive handwriting, an 11-question survey was made of 336 parents in a suburban California community. Results indicated that the majority of the 328 respondents preferred the use of manuscript writing in grades 1 and 2 but objected to its continued use through…

  20. Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

  1. Expert Systems as Tools for Technical Communicators.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grider, Daryl A.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses expertise, what an expert system is, what an expert system shell is, what expert systems can and cannot do, knowledge engineering and technical communicators, and planning and managing expert system projects. (SR)

  2. Deploying expert systems in Ada

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, S. Daniel; Allen, Bradley P.

    1989-01-01

    As the Department of Defense Ada mandate begins to be enforced actively, interest in deploying expert systems in Ada has increased. A prototype Ada based expert system tool is introduced called ART/Ada. This prototype was built to support research into the language and operational issues of expert systems in Ada. ART/Ada allows applications of a conventional expert system tool called ART-IM (Automated Reasoning Tool for Information Management) to be deployed in various Ada environments with efficient use of time and space. ART-IM, a C-based expert system tool, is used to generate Ada source code which is compiled and linked with an Ada base inference engine to produce an Ada executable image. ART/Ada will be used to implement several prototype expert systems for the Space Station Freedom Program testbeds.

  3. Expert systems in seismic exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Denham, L.R.

    1985-02-01

    Artificial intelligence research has produced few practical results in most of its branches. However, expert systems in limited fields of expertise are potentially practical and cost-effective tools in many fields of exploration geophysics. Recent breakthroughs, such as writing expert systems in languages less exotic than Lisp, have made it possible to install a practical expert system on even the smallest computer. A recently published expert system written in Forth compiles a rule base into very compact code, and then uses it to reach decisions based on data supplied by the user. Such a system makes it possible for a small computer to be the geophysicist's advisor on many different subjects, because one expert system can use any number of rule bases. The expert system then becomes a practical tool for standardizing the decision-making process, even in comparatively trivial areas.

  4. Impact of informal networks on opinion dynamics in hierarchically formal organization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Xiao; Shi, Wen; Ma, Yaofei; Yang, Chen

    2015-10-01

    Traditional opinion dynamics model focused mainly on the conditions under which a group of agents would reach a consensus. Conclusion has been gained that continuous opinion dynamics are subject to the constraint that convergent opinion adjustment only proceeds when opinion difference is below a given tolerance. This conclusion is useful but neglected the fact that an organization often consists of overlapped networks including formally hierarchical network and small-world/scale-free informal networks. To study the impact of different types of informal networks on converging speed or the number of opinion clusters, four typical types of informal networks (small-world, scale-free, tree and fully connected) are modeled and proposed as complements to formal communications. Experiments to compare formal network and hybrid networks are then carried out. It is observed that opinion dynamics with supplemented communications of informal networks can benefit convergence speed and reduce opinion clusters. More importantly, it is revealed that three key factors of informal networks affect their impact on formal network. These factors of informal network in descending orders are: agents' tolerances, scale and number of links.

  5. Expert elicitation for a national-level volcano hazard model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bebbington, Mark; Stirling, Mark; Cronin, Shane; Wang, Ting; Jolly, Gill

    2016-04-01

    The quantification of volcanic hazard at national level is a vital pre-requisite to placing volcanic risk on a platform that permits meaningful comparison with other hazards such as earthquakes. New Zealand has up to a dozen dangerous volcanoes, with the usual mixed degrees of knowledge concerning their temporal and spatial eruptive history. Information on the 'size' of the eruptions, be it in terms of VEI, volume or duration, is sketchy at best. These limitations and the need for a uniform approach lend themselves to a subjective hazard analysis via expert elicitation. Approximately 20 New Zealand volcanologists provided estimates for the size of the next eruption from each volcano and, conditional on this, its location, timing and duration. Opinions were likewise elicited from a control group of statisticians, seismologists and (geo)chemists, all of whom had at least heard the term 'volcano'. The opinions were combined via the Cooke classical method. We will report on the preliminary results from the exercise.

  6. The Undecided Have the Key: Interaction-Driven Opinion Dynamics in a Three State Model

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The effects of interpersonal interactions on individual’s agreements result in a social aggregation process which is reflected in the formation of collective states, as for instance, groups of individuals with a similar opinion about a given issue. This field, which has been a longstanding concern of sociologists and psychologists, has been extended into an area of experimental social psychology, and even has attracted the attention of physicists and mathematicians. In this article, we present a novel model of opinion formation in which agents may either have a strict preference for a choice, or be undecided. The opinion shift emerges, in a threshold process, as a consequence of a cumulative persuasion for either one of the two opinions in repeated interactions. There are two main ingredients which play key roles in determining the steady states: the initial fraction of undecided agents and the change in agents’ persuasion after each interaction. As a function of these two parameters, the model presents a wide range of solutions, among which there are consensus of each opinion and bi-polarization. We found that a minimum fraction of undecided agents is not crucial for reaching consensus only, but also to determine a dominant opinion in a polarized situation. In order to gain a deeper comprehension of the dynamics, we also present the theoretical framework of the model. The master equations are of special interest for their nontrivial properties and difficulties in being solved analytically. PMID:26436421

  7. ESG - EXPERT SCRIPT GENERATOR

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooper, E. G.

    1994-01-01

    The Automation Technology Branch of NASA's Langley Research Center is employing increasingly complex degrees of operator/robot cooperation (telerobotics). A good relationship between the operator and computer is essential for smooth performance by a telerobotic system. ESG (Expert Script Generator) is a software package that automatically generates high-level task objective commands from the NASA Intelligent Systems Research Lab's (ISRL's) complex menu-driven language. ESG reduces errors and makes the telerobotics lab accessible to researchers who are not familiar with the comprehensive language developed by ISRL for interacting with the various systems of the ISRL testbed. ESG incorporates expert system technology to capture the typical rules of operation that a skilled operator would use. The result is an operator interface which optimizes the system's capability to perform a task remotely in a hazardous environment, in a timely manner, and without undue stress to the operator, while minimizing the chance for operator errors that may damage equipment. The intricate menu-driven command interface which provides for various control modes of both manipulators and their associated sensors in the TeleRobotic System Simulation (TRSS) has a syntax which is both irregular and verbose. ESG eliminates the following two problems with this command "language": 1) knowing the correct command sequence to accomplish a task, and 2) inputting a known command sequence without typos and other errors. ESG serves as an additional layer of interface, working in conjunction with the menu command processor, not supplanting it. By specifying task-level commands, such as GRASP, CONNECT, etc., ESG will generate the appropriate menu elements to accomplish the task. These elements will be collected in a script file which can then be executed by the ISRL menu command processor. In addition, the operator can extend the list of task-level commands to include customized tasks composed of sub

  8. [Recommendations for terminating child custody--reasons and grounds in 30 expert decisions].

    PubMed

    Klosinski, G; Karle, M

    1996-11-01

    In a retrospective analysis 30 expert opinions on the right of visitation, which recommend the exclusion of this right for the non-custodial parent, are evaluated. These cases represent 23% of the expert opinions concerning the right of visitation that have been given by the department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry of the University of Tübingen between 1991 and 1994. Focusing on the decisive argument for the expert to exclude the right of visitation, it became apparent that in 40% of the cases the will of the child was the determining factor, followed by sustained tension between the parents in 33% of the cases. Emotional neglect, (continuous) abuse and maltreatment (12%) as well as offences against the clause of good behaviour (Wohlverhaltensklausel) were of significant smaller influence on the decision. And although 61% of the children have been classified as psychological disturbed, only in 5% of the cases this diagnosis was of importance.

  9. System Experts and Decision Making Experts in Transdisciplinary Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mieg, Harald A.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…

  10. Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

    1992-01-01

    Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

  11. 12 CFR 1010.17 - Advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... Requirements § 1010.17 Advisory opinion. (a) General. A developer may request an opinion from the Director as... information, but the developer should at least cite the applicable statutory or regulatory basis for the... of the appendix to this part: Developer's Affirmation for Advisory Opinion....

  12. 12 CFR 1010.17 - Advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... Requirements § 1010.17 Advisory opinion. (a) General. A developer may request an opinion from the Director as... information, but the developer should at least cite the applicable statutory or regulatory basis for the... of the appendix to this part: Developer's Affirmation for Advisory Opinion....

  13. 12 CFR 1010.17 - Advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... Requirements § 1010.17 Advisory opinion. (a) General. A developer may request an opinion from the Director as... information, but the developer should at least cite the applicable statutory or regulatory basis for the... of the appendix to this part: Developer's Affirmation for Advisory Opinion....

  14. Identifying Opinion Leaders to Promote Behavior Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Valente, Thomas W.; Pumpuang, Patchareeya

    2007-01-01

    This article reviews 10 techniques used to identify opinion leaders to promote behavior change. Opinion leaders can act as gatekeepers for interventions, help change social norms, and accelerate behavior change. Few studies document the manner in which opinion leaders are identified, recruited, and trained to promote health. The authors categorize…

  15. Opinion formation with upper and lower bounds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yano, Ryosuke; Martin, Arnaud

    2015-12-01

    We investigate the opinion formation with upper and lower bounds. We formulate the binary exchange of opinions between two peoples under the second (or political) party using the relativistic inelastic-Boltzmann-Vlasov equation with randomly perturbed motion. In this paper, we discuss the relativistic effects on the opinion formation of peoples from the standpoint of the relativistic kinetic theory.

  16. Opinion Expression as a Rational Behavior.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Sei-Hill

    This study looks at individuals' opinion expressions as a rational behavior based on a conscious calculus of expected benefits and costs (economic analysis). The influences of "issue benefit,""opinion congruence," and "issue knowledge," as sources of benefits and costs on opinion expression were hypothesized and tested. The study also examined the…

  17. 38 CFR 20.901 - Rule 901. Medical opinions and opinions of the General Counsel.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... schools, universities, clinics, or medical institutions with which arrangements for such opinions have... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Rule 901. Medical... § 20.901 Rule 901. Medical opinions and opinions of the General Counsel. (a) Opinion from the...

  18. 38 CFR 20.901 - Rule 901. Medical opinions and opinions of the General Counsel.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... schools, universities, clinics, or medical institutions with which arrangements for such opinions have... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Rule 901. Medical... § 20.901 Rule 901. Medical opinions and opinions of the General Counsel. (a) Opinion from the...

  19. 38 CFR 20.901 - Rule 901. Medical opinions and opinions of the General Counsel.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... schools, universities, clinics, or medical institutions with which arrangements for such opinions have... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Rule 901. Medical... § 20.901 Rule 901. Medical opinions and opinions of the General Counsel. (a) Opinion from the...

  20. 38 CFR 20.901 - Rule 901. Medical opinions and opinions of the General Counsel.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... schools, universities, clinics, or medical institutions with which arrangements for such opinions have... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Rule 901. Medical... § 20.901 Rule 901. Medical opinions and opinions of the General Counsel. (a) Opinion from the...

  1. Expert Systems: Instructional Design Potential.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pollock, Joellyn; Grabinger, R. Scott

    1989-01-01

    Description of the components of expert systems highlights their potential uses in the field of instructional design. Uses of expert systems are described for determining the cost-effectiveness of instructional media; as instructional management aids; as job aids; in helping to diagnose student problems; and as student feedback/evaluation systems.…

  2. Expert Systems in Reference Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roysdon, Christine, Ed.; White, Howard D., Ed.

    1989-01-01

    Eleven articles introduce expert systems applications in library and information science, and present design and implementation issues of system development for reference services. Topics covered include knowledge based systems, prototype development, the use of artificial intelligence to remedy current system inadequacies, and an expert system to…

  3. Expert Systems and Special Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hofmeister, Alan M.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

    The application of artificial intelligence to the problems of education is examined. One of the most promising areas in artificial intelligence is expert systems technology which engages the user in a problem-solving diaglogue. Some of the characteristics that make expert systems "intelligent" are identified and exemplified. The rise of expert…

  4. Energy Policy: Ask the Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nuclear Industry, 1991

    1991-01-01

    Twelve U.S. experts on energy policies individually offer perspectives about which priorities should be enlisted with respect to the current energy policy of the United States. In their analyses, these experts unanimously agree that the biggest U.S. problem is an increasing dependence upon imported oil. (JJK)

  5. Expert Systems and Document Handling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edmonds, Ernest

    1987-01-01

    Describes significant attributes of expert systems, contrasts them to conventional computer systems, and provides an overview of the R1 expert system used by Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) to put together operational systems that meet customers' requirements. Document handling, particularly pictures and images in documents, is also briefly…

  6. A maximum entropy model for opinions in social groups

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Sergio; Navarrete, Yasmín; Gutiérrez, Gonzalo

    2014-04-01

    We study how the opinions of a group of individuals determine their spatial distribution and connectivity, through an agent-based model. The interaction between agents is described by a Hamiltonian in which agents are allowed to move freely without an underlying lattice (the average network topology connecting them is determined from the parameters). This kind of model was derived using maximum entropy statistical inference under fixed expectation values of certain probabilities that (we propose) are relevant to social organization. Control parameters emerge as Lagrange multipliers of the maximum entropy problem, and they can be associated with the level of consequence between the personal beliefs and external opinions, and the tendency to socialize with peers of similar or opposing views. These parameters define a phase diagram for the social system, which we studied using Monte Carlo Metropolis simulations. Our model presents both first and second-order phase transitions, depending on the ratio between the internal consequence and the interaction with others. We have found a critical value for the level of internal consequence, below which the personal beliefs of the agents seem to be irrelevant.

  7. Characteristics of successful opinion leaders in a bounded confidence model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Shuwei; Glass, David H.; McCartney, Mark

    2016-05-01

    This paper analyses the impact of competing opinion leaders on attracting followers in a social group based on a bounded confidence model in terms of four characteristics: reputation, stubbornness, appeal and extremeness. In the model, reputation differs among leaders and normal agents based on the weights assigned to them, stubbornness of leaders is reflected by their confidence towards normal agents, appeal of the leaders is represented by the confidence of followers towards them, and extremeness is captured by the opinion values of leaders. Simulations show that increasing reputation, stubbornness or extremeness makes it more difficult for the group to achieve consensus, but increasing the appeal will make it easier. The results demonstrate that successful opinion leaders should generally be less stubborn, have greater appeal and be less extreme in order to attract more followers in a competing environment. Furthermore, the number of followers can be very sensitive to small changes in these characteristics. On the other hand, reputation has a more complicated impact: higher reputation helps the leader to attract more followers when the group bound of confidence is high, but can hinder the leader from attracting followers when the group bound of confidence is low.

  8. Threat expert system technology advisor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kurrasch, E. R.; Tripp, L. R.

    1987-01-01

    A prototype expert system was developed to determine the feasibility of using expert system technology to enhance the performance and survivability of helicopter pilots in a combat threat environment while flying NOE (Nap of the Earth) missions. The basis for the concept is the potential of using an Expert System Advisor to reduce the extreme overloading of the pilot who flies NOE mission below treetop level at approximately 40 knots while performing several other functions. The ultimate goal is to develop a Threat Expert System Advisor which provides threat information and advice that are better than even a highly experienced copilot. The results clearly show that the NOE pilot needs all the help in decision aiding and threat situation awareness that he can get. It clearly shows that heuristics are important and that an expert system for combat NOE helicopter missions can be of great help to the pilot in complex threat situations and in making decisions.

  9. Cognitive resources of physics experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Darrick C.

    One important goal of physics education is to help students develop reasoning patterns similar to those of expert physicists. To achieve this goal, physics educators must know what makes physics experts so successful at solving challenging physics problems. However, this dimension of physics expertise has not been fully explored by the physics education research (PER) community. In this dissertation, I describe several studies I have conducted that further the PER community's understanding of physics expertise. In these studies, I investigate how expert physicists reason as they solve unfamiliar, challenging physics problems by using a resource-based model of cognition to analyze videotaped recordings of problem solving sessions. By developing a way to determine when experts are making conceptual breakthroughs I analyze what resources experts use during conceptual breakthroughs. In the first study, I show that physics conceptual breakthroughs are characterized by reasoning which combines resources related to intuitive knowledge, higher level physics based conceptual knowledge, and epistemological knowledge. In the second study, I develop a way to reliably code for epistemological resources and determine what epistemological resources experts rely on most during conceptual breakthroughs. My findings show that experts rely on contrasting cases more often than any other epistemological resource. In the third study, I use variation theory to investigate how experts use contrasting cases. I look for patterns across all instances when experts use contrasting cases to make a conceptual breakthrough and show how scientific epistemology can be used to better understand experts' use of contrasting cases. I discuss how the findings of each study can be used to inform physics education.

  10. What defines an Expert? - Uncertainty in the interpretation of seismic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bond, C. E.

    2008-12-01

    Studies focusing on the elicitation of information from experts are concentrated primarily in economics and world markets, medical practice and expert witness testimonies. Expert elicitation theory has been applied in the natural sciences, most notably in the prediction of fluid flow in hydrological studies. In the geological sciences expert elicitation has been limited to theoretical analysis with studies focusing on the elicitation element, gaining expert opinion rather than necessarily understanding the basis behind the expert view. In these cases experts are defined in a traditional sense, based for example on: standing in the field, no. of years of experience, no. of peer reviewed publications, the experts position in a company hierarchy or academia. Here traditional indicators of expertise have been compared for significance on affective seismic interpretation. Polytomous regression analysis has been used to assess the relative significance of length and type of experience on the outcome of a seismic interpretation exercise. Following the initial analysis the techniques used by participants to interpret the seismic image were added as additional variables to the analysis. Specific technical skills and techniques were found to be more important for the affective geological interpretation of seismic data than the traditional indicators of expertise. The results of a seismic interpretation exercise, the techniques used to interpret the seismic and the participant's prior experience have been combined and analysed to answer the question - who is and what defines an expert?

  11. Range of interaction in an opinion evolution model of ideological self-positioning: Contagion, hesitance and polarization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gimenez, M. Cecilia; Paz García, Ana Pamela; Burgos Paci, Maxi A.; Reinaudi, Luis

    2016-04-01

    The evolution of public opinion using tools and concepts borrowed from Statistical Physics is an emerging area within the field of Sociophysics. In the present paper, a Statistical Physics model was developed to study the evolution of the ideological self-positioning of an ensemble of agents. The model consists of an array of L components, each one of which represents the ideology of an agent. The proposed mechanism is based on the "voter model", in which one agent can adopt the opinion of another one if the difference of their opinions lies within a certain range. The existence of "undecided" agents (i.e. agents with no definite opinion) was implemented in the model. The possibility of radicalization of an agent's opinion upon interaction with another one was also implemented. The results of our simulations are compared to statistical data taken from the Latinobarómetro databank for the cases of Argentina, Chile, Brazil and Uruguay in the last decade. Among other results, the effect of taking into account the undecided agents is the formation of a single peak at the middle of the ideological spectrum (which corresponds to a centrist ideological position), in agreement with the real cases studied.

  12. Agent Orange

    MedlinePlus

    ... Index Agent Orange Agent Orange Home Facts about Herbicides Veterans' Diseases Birth Defects Benefits Exposure Locations Provider ... millions of gallons of Agent Orange and other herbicides on trees and vegetation during the Vietnam War. ...

  13. On deception detection in multi-agent systems and deception intent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, Eugene, Jr.; Li, Deqing; Yuan, Xiuqing

    2008-04-01

    Deception detection plays an important role in the military decision-making process, but detecting deception is a challenging task. The deception planning process involves a number of human factors. It is intent-driven where intentions are usually hidden or not easily observable. As a result, in order to detect deception, any adversary model must have the capability to capture the adversary's intent. This paper discusses deception detection in multi-agent systems and in adversary modeling. We examined psychological and cognitive science research on deception and implemented various theories of deception within our approach. First, in multi-agent expert systems, one detection method uses correlations between agents to predict reasonable opinions/responses of other agents (Santos & Johnson, 2004). We further explore this idea and present studies that show the impact of different factors on detection success rate. Second, from adversary modeling, our detection method focuses on inferring adversary intent. By combining deception "branches" with intent inference models, we can estimate an adversary's deceptive activities and at the same time enhance intent inference. Two major kinds of deceptions are developed in this approach in different fashions. Simulative deception attempts to find inconsistency in observables, while dissimulative deception emphasizes the inference of enemy intentions.

  14. Expert systems for personnel assignment

    SciTech Connect

    Hardee, J.L.; Liepins, G.

    1986-01-01

    In order to reduce stress on assignment personnel (detailers) and ensure maximum fairness and consistency in the Navy's personnel assignment process, The Navy Military Personnel Command (NMPC) has begun to explore the potential use of expert systems to supplement current manual and computerized distribution methods. The Detailer's Assistant expert system is being developed to improve the detailers' ability to satisfy the needs of their constituents and Navy management. An initial prototype of the Detailer's Assistant is now being evaluated. Numerous upgrades and extensions should lead to an operational system in the near future. Further development to a production system will involve additional research in machine learning, intelligent database methods, and cooperating expert systems.

  15. Expert Witness: A system for developing expert medical testimony

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lewandowski, Raymond; Perkins, David; Leasure, David

    1994-01-01

    Expert Witness in an expert system designed to assist attorneys and medical experts in determining the merit of medical malpractice claims in the area of obstetrics. It substitutes the time of the medical expert with the time of a paralegal assistant guided by the expert system during the initial investigation of the medical records and patient interviews. The product of the system is a narrative transcript containing important data, immediate conclusions from the data, and overall conclusions of the case that the attorney and medical expert use to make decisions about whether and how to proceed with the case. The transcript may also contain directives for gathering additional information needed for the case. The system is a modified heuristic classifier and is implemented using over 600 CLIPS rules together with a C-based user interface. The data abstraction and solution refinement are implemented directly using forward chaining production and matching. The use of CLIPS and C is essential to delivering a system that runs on a generic PC platform. The direct implementation in CLIPS together with locality of inference ensures that the system will scale gracefully. Two years of use has revealed no errors in the reasoning.

  16. Using Expert System Job Aids: A Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carr, Clay

    1989-01-01

    Explains how current commercial expert system technology can be used to create useful job aids. Expert systems are defined, situations in which an expert system job aid will be most effective are described, expert system shells are discussed, and three commercial expert system products are described. (LRW)

  17. [The surgeon, the expert, the judge].

    PubMed

    Vayre, P

    1996-12-01

    A study of 125 medico-legal opinions and evaluation of the literature allows for: an appreciation of the evolution in the concept in the jurisprudence pertaining to the responsibility of the surgeon in France in present practice conditions, a definition of the role of the legal expert, an explanation of the development of paths outside the procedural setting. In the present state of our knowledge the responsibility related to a prejudicial error has a frequency of 25-30% all jurisdictions and disciplines considered together. In 66% of cases the error is the absence of a timely treatment decision or a defective postoperative follow up. A mishap without proven error is present 50% of the cases which justifies a decision of coverage outside the civil responsibility of the surgeon. The modern conditions of surgical practice, the implications of the new technologies, the evolution of economic and socio-cultural ideas must lead the political decision makers and health-professionals to rapidly define a clear line of conduct. In the absence of comprehensive statistics from the courts, the qualitative and quantitative information contained in the national database "Remedhos France", now available, will be useful to inform the surgical community on the risk and its prevention, as well as to orient a homogenous doctrine and its applications in view of a common European approach.

  18. Evaluation of 12 strategies for obtaining second opinions to improve interpretation of breast histopathology: simulation study

    PubMed Central

    Tosteson, Anna NA; Pepe, Margaret S; Longton, Gary M; Nelson, Heidi D; Geller, Berta; Carney, Patricia A; Onega, Tracy; Allison, Kimberly H; Jackson, Sara L; Weaver, Donald L

    2016-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the potential effect of second opinions on improving the accuracy of diagnostic interpretation of breast histopathology. Design Simulation study. Setting 12 different strategies for acquiring independent second opinions. Participants Interpretations of 240 breast biopsy specimens by 115 pathologists, one slide for each case, compared with reference diagnoses derived by expert consensus. Main outcome measures Misclassification rates for individual pathologists and for 12 simulated strategies for second opinions. Simulations compared accuracy of diagnoses from single pathologists with that of diagnoses based on pairing interpretations from first and second independent pathologists, where resolution of disagreements was by an independent third pathologist. 12 strategies were evaluated in which acquisition of second opinions depended on initial diagnoses, assessment of case difficulty or borderline characteristics, pathologists’ clinical volumes, or whether a second opinion was required by policy or desired by the pathologists. The 240 cases included benign without atypia (10% non-proliferative, 20% proliferative without atypia), atypia (30%), ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS, 30%), and invasive cancer (10%). Overall misclassification rates and agreement statistics depended on the composition of the test set, which included a higher prevalence of difficult cases than in typical practice. Results Misclassification rates significantly decreased (P<0.001) with all second opinion strategies except for the strategy limiting second opinions only to cases of invasive cancer. The overall misclassification rate decreased from 24.7% to 18.1% when all cases received second opinions (P<0.001). Obtaining both first and second opinions from pathologists with a high volume (≥10 breast biopsy specimens weekly) resulted in the lowest misclassification rate in this test set (14.3%, 95% confidence interval 10.9% to 18.0%). Obtaining second opinions only for

  19. [Opinion of the citizens, opinion of the officials].

    PubMed

    1997-09-01

    No government can survive without consulting the opinion of the governed. Even dictators cannot be completely ignorant of the needs and sentiments of the population. This truth applies as well in intimate aspects of life related to conscience and morality. Mexican federal and local legislators lack means of consulting the citizenry. Only a few localities have the type of procedures to determine the will of the electorate used in nations of long democratic tradition. Abortion and other matters of conscience should be subjected to referendum. At present, referenda are impracticable in Mexico. Reflecting the situation in secular society, the Catholic Church hierarchy lacks means of consulting that would at least temper the authoritarian condemnation by the Pope of contraception and birth control and the obsessive opposition to condoms, the best HIV preventive. It is difficult to gauge the true weight of the pope¿s influence in Mexico, but many lawmakers and authorities consider it definitive. The Church hierarchy neither consults the faithful nor listens to those within the Church who recommend modification of doctrines regarding reproduction. Surveys reveal that Catholic men and women use contraception, and women have obtained abortions without considering themselves outside the religious community. Legislators and officials should know what people really think, and citizens should be provided with information to enable them to form their own opinions. PMID:12349538

  20. Foodborne proportion of gastrointestinal illness: estimates from a Canadian expert elicitation survey.

    PubMed

    Ravel, André; Davidson, Valerie J; Ruzante, Juliana M; Fazil, Aamir

    2010-12-01

    absence of more reliable estimates, the observed discrepancy between experts must be explored and understood before one can judge which opinion is the best.

  1. Expert systems in clinical microbiology.

    PubMed

    Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

    2011-07-01

    This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the "big three": Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically.

  2. Expert Systems in Clinical Microbiology

    PubMed Central

    Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

    2011-01-01

    Summary: This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the “big three”: Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically. PMID:21734247

  3. The nutrition advisor expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huse, Scott M.; Shyne, Scott S.

    1991-01-01

    The Nutrition Advisor Expert System (NAES) is an expert system written in the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS). NAES provides expert knowledge and guidance into the complex world of nutrition management by capturing the knowledge of an expert and placing it at the user's fingertips. Specifically, NAES enables the user to: (1) obtain precise nutrition information for food items; (2) perform nutritional analysis of meal(s), flagging deficiencies based upon the U.S. Recommended Daily Allowances; (3) predict possible ailments based upon observed nutritional deficiency trends; (4) obtain a top ten listing of food items for a given nutrient; and (5) conveniently upgrade the data base. An explanation facility for the ailment prediction feature is also provided to document the reasoning process.

  4. [The second opinion in oncology].

    PubMed

    Cifaldi, Luciano; Felicetti, Viviana; Cristina, Giuseppe

    2010-01-01

    The medical second opinion (MSO) means the process through which it is possible to consult any available medical institution or a single physician, to compare, confirm and/or review a first diagnosis and/or a proposed treatment. The MSO is of the utmost importance when patients are suffering serious and disabling diseases or when risking their lives. Oncology is a really complex discipline in which, daily, doctors and patients have to deal with new clinical, managerial and sociological problems. Most patients are now better informed-often having gathered information from the Web, newspapers, magazines.This information is often very mixed and confusing and the number of MSO is increasing.

  5. Co-Evolution of Opinion and Strategy in Persuasion Dynamics:. AN Evolutionary Game Theoretical Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, Fei; Liu, Yun; Li, Yong

    In this paper, a new model of opinion formation within the framework of evolutionary game theory is presented. The model simulates strategic situations when people are in opinion discussion. Heterogeneous agents adjust their behaviors to the environment during discussions, and their interacting strategies evolve together with opinions. In the proposed game, we take into account payoff discount to join a discussion, and the situation that people might drop out of an unpromising game. Analytical and emulational results show that evolution of opinion and strategy always tend to converge, with utility threshold, memory length, and decision uncertainty parameters influencing the convergence time. The model displays different dynamical regimes when we set differently the rule when people are at a loss in strategy.

  6. Noise-induced absorbing phase transition in a model of opinion formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vieira, Allan R.; Crokidakis, Nuno

    2016-08-01

    In this work we study a 3-state (+1, -1, 0) opinion model in the presence of noise and disorder. We consider pairwise competitive interactions, with a fraction p of those interactions being negative (disorder). Moreover, there is a noise q that represents the probability of an individual spontaneously change his opinion to the neutral state. Our aim is to study how the increase/decrease of the fraction of neutral agents affects the critical behavior of the system and the evolution of opinions. We derive analytical expressions for the order parameter of the model, as well as for the stationary fraction of each opinion, and we show that there are distinct phase transitions. One is the usual ferro-paramagnetic transition, that is in the Ising universality class. In addition, there are para-absorbing and ferro-absorbing transitions, presenting the directed percolation universality class. Our results are complemented by numerical simulations.

  7. Agent amplified communication

    SciTech Connect

    Kautz, H.; Selman, B.; Milewski, A.

    1996-12-31

    We propose an agent-based framework for assisting and simplifying person-to-person communication for information gathering tasks. As an example, we focus on locating experts for any specified topic. In our approach, the informal person-to-person networks that exist within an organization are used to {open_quotes}referral chain{close_quotes} requests for expertise. User-agents help automate this process. The agents generate referrals by analyzing records of e-mail communication patterns. Simulation results show that the higher responsiveness of an agent-based system can be effectively traded for the higher accuracy of a completely manual approach. Furthermore, preliminary experience with a group of users on a prototype system has shown that useful automatic referrals can be found in practice. Our experience with actual users has also shown that privacy concerns are central to the successful deployment of personal agents: an advanced agent-based system will therefore need to reason about issues involving trust and authority.

  8. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, Sonie; Yan, Jerry C.

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 1990s cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient implementation of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real-time demands are met for larger systems. Speedup via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial laboratories in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems is surveyed. The survey discusses multiprocessors for expert systems, parallel languages for symbolic computations, and mapping expert systems to multiprocessors. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. The main reasons are (1) the body of knowledge applicable in any given situation and the amount of computation executed by each rule firing are small, (2) dividing the problem solving process into relatively independent partitions is difficult, and (3) implementation decisions that enable expert systems to be incrementally refined hamper compile-time optimization. In order to obtain greater speedups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  9. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yan, Jerry C.; Lau, Sonie

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 90's cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient use of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real time demands are met for large expert systems. Speed-up via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial labs in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems was surveyed. The survey is divided into three major sections: (1) multiprocessors for parallel expert systems; (2) parallel languages for symbolic computations; and (3) measurements of parallelism of expert system. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. In order to obtain greater speed-ups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  10. Standards for evaluating expert system tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beach, Sharon S.; Gevarter, William

    1991-01-01

    A brief survey of the literature and proposal for a standard methodology for evaluating expert system building tools are discribed. Criteria for expert systems environmental factors and expert systems tool features are also discussed.

  11. 32 CFR 516.52 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... States Has An Interest § 516.52 Expert witnesses. Requests for present or former DA personnel as expert... SJA or legal adviser. In no event, may present or former DA personnel furnish expert or...

  12. Expert consultation on risk factors for introduction of infectious pathogens into fish farms.

    PubMed

    Oidtmann, Birgit C; Peeler, Edmund J; Thrush, Mark A; Cameron, Angus R; Reese, R Allan; Pearce, Fiona M; Dunn, Peter; Lyngstad, Trude M; Tavornpanich, Saraya; Brun, Edgar; Stärk, Katharina D C

    2014-08-01

    An expert consultation was conducted to provide quantitative parameters required to inform risk-based surveillance of aquaculture holdings for selected infectious hazards. The hazards were four fish diseases endemic in some or several European countries: infectious salmon anaemia (ISA), viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS), infectious haematopoietic necrosis (IHN), and koi herpes virus disease (KHD). Experts were asked to provide estimates for the relative importance of 5 risk themes for the hazard to be introduced into and infect susceptible fish at the destination. The 5 risk themes were: (1) live fish and egg movements; (2) exposure via water; (3) on-site processing; (4) short distance mechanical transmission and (5) distance independent mechanical transmission. The experts also provided parameter estimates for hazard transmission pathways within the themes. The expert consultation was undertaken in a 2 step approach: an online survey followed by an expert consultation meeting. The expert opinion indicated that live fish movements and exposure via water were the major relevant risk themes. Experts were recruited from several European countries and thus covered a range of farming systems. Therefore, the outputs from the expert consultation have relevance for the European context.

  13. Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, M. Granger

    2014-01-01

    The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making. PMID:24821779

  14. Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Unal, Resit; Keating, Charles; Conway, Bruce; Chytka, Trina

    2004-01-01

    A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.

  15. Interplay between social debate and propaganda in an opinion formation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gimenez, M. C.; Revelli, J. A.; Lama, M. S. de la; Lopez, J. M.; Wio, H. S.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a simple model of opinion dynamics in which a two-state agent modified Sznajd model evolves due to the simultaneous action of stochastic driving and a periodic signal. The stochastic effect mimics a social temperature, so the agents may adopt decisions in support for or against some opinion or position, according to a modified Sznajd rule with a varying probability. The external force represents a simplified picture by which society feels the influence of the external effects of propaganda. By means of Monte Carlo simulations we have shown the dynamical interplay between the social condition or mood and the external influence, finding a stochastic resonance-like phenomenon when we depict the noise-to-signal ratio as a function of the social temperature. In addition, we have also studied the effects of the system size and the external signal strength on the opinion formation dynamics.

  16. Grass carp in the Great Lakes region: establishment potential, expert perceptions, and re-evaluation of experimental evidence of ecological impact

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wittmann, Marion E.; Jerde, Christopher L.; Howeth, Jennifer G.; Maher, Sean P.; Deines, Andrew M.; Jenkins, Jill A.; Whitledge, Gregory W.; Burbank, Sarah B.; Chadderton, William L.; Mahon, Andrew R.; Tyson, Jeffrey T.; Gantz, Crysta A.; Keller, Reuben P.; Drake, John M.; Lodge, David M.

    2014-01-01

    Intentional introductions of nonindigenous fishes are increasing globally. While benefits of these introductions are easily quantified, assessments to understand the negative impacts to ecosystems are often difficult, incomplete, or absent. Grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) was originally introduced to the United States as a biocontrol agent, and recent observations of wild, diploid individuals in the Great Lakes basin have spurred interest in re-evaluating its ecological risk. Here, we evaluate the ecological impact of grass carp using expert opinion and a suite of the most up-to-date analytical tools and data (ploidy assessment, eDNA surveillance, species distribution models (SDMs), and meta-analysis). The perceived ecological impact of grass carp by fisheries experts was variable, ranging from unknown to very high. Wild-caught triploid and diploid individuals occurred in multiple Great Lakes waterways, and eDNA surveillance suggests that grass carp are abundant in a major tributary of Lake Michigan. SDMs predicted suitable grass carp climate occurs in all Great Lakes. Meta-analysis showed that grass carp introductions impact both water quality and biota. Novel findings based on updated ecological impact assessment tools indicate that iterative risk assessment of introduced fishes may be warranted.

  17. The impact of new diagnostic technologies on health care. An aggregation of expert opinion.

    PubMed

    Schmid, G C; Poulin, M M; McNeal, B R

    1986-01-01

    The growing number of applications for both new and existing technologies will act as a catalyst for major changes in the diagnostic testing field over the next decade. The most important single factor affecting diagnostics, however, will be the increasing restrictions on reimbursement for diagnostic tests as traditional payers become much more cost conscious. After decades of growth, we should see a gradual decline in absolute numbers of diagnostic tests and procedures by the early 1990s. The locations of pathology testing may change as well. Free-standing labs will continue to grow in importance while the number of tests in hospitals will decline as hospital admission volumes fall. The number of tests in the home will grow dramatically but will remain a relatively small part of the whole. In diagnostic imaging, rapid growth will occur in the use of some of the newer specialized procedures, but the use of traditional x-rays is likely to fall off slightly. The share of procedures done in hospitals will drop, and the share done in diagnostic imaging centers will show a corresponding growth. These changes are likely to mean fewer radiologists and pathologists, tougher questions about administrative allocation of flat-rate reimbursements, a shift of focus in medical specialist education, and a shift in the role of medical specialty societies. PMID:10317697

  18. Risks and Benefits of Late Onset Hypogonadism Treatment: An Expert Opinion

    PubMed Central

    Corona, Giovanni; Vignozzi, Linda; Sforza, Alessandra

    2013-01-01

    Late-onset hypogonadism (LOH) is a syndromic condition that has a well-recognized association with sexual and reproductive failure. LOH is frequently associated with chronic conditions including cardiovascular diseases (CVD), obesity, osteoporosis, HIV infection, renal failure, and obstructive pulmonary diseases. Despite this evidence, in patients with these conditions, LOH is still only rarely investigated and testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) rarely considered. In this paper, we critically reviewed the available evidence on LOH treatment focusing on possible risks and benefits. Medical therapy of LOH should be individualized depending on the etiology of the disease and the patient's expectations. The fear of prostate cancer and the risk of erythrocytosis probably represent the main limitations of TRT in aging men. However, TRT in healthy older men in near physiological doses does not appear to incur serious adverse events, although regular monitoring of prostate-specific antigen and hematocrit levels is required. Available evidence also suggests that TRT might ameliorate central obesity and glycometabolic control in patients with metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes. In addition, TRT has been associated with an increase in bone mineral density in men with osteoporosis, with an improvement in lean body mass in subjects with human immunodeficiency virus infection or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, as well as with peripheral oxygenation in patients with chronic kidney diseases. Despite this evidence, however, it should be recognized that the results of these trials were heterogeneous and limited by small sample sizes. Hence, further research is required regarding the long-term benefits and adverse effects of TRT in LOH. PMID:24044106

  19. Prioritizing multiple health behavior change research topics: expert opinions in behavior change science.

    PubMed

    Amato, Katie; Park, Eunhee; Nigg, Claudio R

    2016-06-01

    Multiple health behavior change (MHBC) approaches are understudied. The purpose of this study is to provide strategic MHBC research direction. This cross-sectional study contacted participants through the Society of Behavioral Medicine email listservs and rated the importance of 24 MHBC research topics (1 = not at all important, 5 = extremely important) separately for general and underserved populations. Participants (n = 76) were 79 % female; 76 % White, 10 % Asian, 8 % African American, 5 % Hispanic, and 1 % Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander. Top MHBC research priorities were predictors of behavior change and the sustainability, long-term effects, and dissemination/translation of interventions for both populations. Recruitment and retention of participants (t(68) = 2.17, p = 0.000), multi-behavioral indices (t(68) = 3.54, p = 0.001), and measurement burden (t(67) = 5.04, p = 0.001) were important for the underserved. Results identified the same top research priorities across populations. For the underserved, research should emphasize recruitment, retention, and measurement burden.

  20. Recurrent Issues in Efforts to Prevent Homicidal Youth Violence in Schools: Expert Opinions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dill, Karen E.; Redding, Richard E.; Smith, Peter K.; Surette, Ray; Cornell, Dewey G.

    2011-01-01

    Developmental research on social influences on adolescents can guide practices aimed to prevent homicidal youth violence. School shootings have repeatedly raised questions about the contributory role of bullying and entertainment violence, how news media publicity might produce copycat crimes, and whether stiffer criminal sanctions might have a…

  1. The impact of new diagnostic technologies on health care. An aggregation of expert opinion.

    PubMed

    Schmid, G C; Poulin, M M; McNeal, B R

    1986-01-01

    The growing number of applications for both new and existing technologies will act as a catalyst for major changes in the diagnostic testing field over the next decade. The most important single factor affecting diagnostics, however, will be the increasing restrictions on reimbursement for diagnostic tests as traditional payers become much more cost conscious. After decades of growth, we should see a gradual decline in absolute numbers of diagnostic tests and procedures by the early 1990s. The locations of pathology testing may change as well. Free-standing labs will continue to grow in importance while the number of tests in hospitals will decline as hospital admission volumes fall. The number of tests in the home will grow dramatically but will remain a relatively small part of the whole. In diagnostic imaging, rapid growth will occur in the use of some of the newer specialized procedures, but the use of traditional x-rays is likely to fall off slightly. The share of procedures done in hospitals will drop, and the share done in diagnostic imaging centers will show a corresponding growth. These changes are likely to mean fewer radiologists and pathologists, tougher questions about administrative allocation of flat-rate reimbursements, a shift of focus in medical specialist education, and a shift in the role of medical specialty societies.

  2. Prioritizing multiple health behavior change research topics: expert opinions in behavior change science.

    PubMed

    Amato, Katie; Park, Eunhee; Nigg, Claudio R

    2016-06-01

    Multiple health behavior change (MHBC) approaches are understudied. The purpose of this study is to provide strategic MHBC research direction. This cross-sectional study contacted participants through the Society of Behavioral Medicine email listservs and rated the importance of 24 MHBC research topics (1 = not at all important, 5 = extremely important) separately for general and underserved populations. Participants (n = 76) were 79 % female; 76 % White, 10 % Asian, 8 % African American, 5 % Hispanic, and 1 % Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander. Top MHBC research priorities were predictors of behavior change and the sustainability, long-term effects, and dissemination/translation of interventions for both populations. Recruitment and retention of participants (t(68) = 2.17, p = 0.000), multi-behavioral indices (t(68) = 3.54, p = 0.001), and measurement burden (t(67) = 5.04, p = 0.001) were important for the underserved. Results identified the same top research priorities across populations. For the underserved, research should emphasize recruitment, retention, and measurement burden. PMID:27356992

  3. Expert opinion: Assessing cochlear implant candidacy and progress for people with English as an additional language.

    PubMed

    Mahon, Merle; Rajput, Kaukab; Vickers, Debi

    2016-04-01

    Special considerations relating to cochlear implants (CIs) are necessary for deaf people for whom English is an additional language (EAL). The audiological and pre-linguistic skills criteria for CI candidacy are the same for children with EAL as for children from English-speaking families. However, thorough assessment is not straightforward, for example, requiring employment of experienced interpreters. To ensure family engagement and thus appropriate support in the home, clear understanding of the family's social and cultural framework and of their needs and requirements is essential. Equally, the family must be enabled to understand the implications of CI. Additional training of staff in CI teams may be needed. This article will address these and other issues for children and also consider the situation for adults. PMID:27099114

  4. Training Administrators for Culturally and Linguistically Diverse School Populations: Opinions of Expert Practitioners

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herrity, Vishna A.; Glasman, Naftaly S.

    2010-01-01

    Cultural and linguistic diversity has changed the social fabric of today's schools. Currently, there is a wider variety of cultural, language, and family backgrounds than ever before. As a result of the increasing numbers of language minority students with unique educational and social needs, some studies suggest that principals need specialized…

  5. Expert Opinions on Postsecondary Outdoor Adventure Risk Management Curriculum Design: A Research Note

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harper, Nevin

    2007-01-01

    A study of outdoor adventure risk management education was conducted in the fall of 2003 following the devastating avalanche season of winter 2002-2003, which took close to 50 lives in North America. The study was guided by the desire to better understand effective risk management training of outdoor adventure leaders in postsecondary…

  6. [Legal characteristics of expert opinions of anaesthetic cases of the North German Arbitration Board].

    PubMed

    Schaffartzik, Walter; Hachenberg, Thomas; Kols, Kerstin; Neu, Johann

    2016-05-01

    The Arbitration Board for Medical Liability Issues of the State Medical Councils of Northern Germany in Hannover (North German Arbitration Board, NGAB) settles about 100 cases in the area of anaesthesiology per year. In these proceedings the patient carries the burden of proof. I. e. the patient has to prove that its health damage was caused by a medical error. Nevertheless, for individual cases the NGAB examines also whether facilitation of the burden of proof can be granted to the patient. This article exemplifies cases, for which the NGAB recognized such facilitation of the burden of proof. In each of these cases, the NGAB asserted the damage claim.

  7. A Pragmatic Approach to Patch Testing Atopic Dermatitis Patients: Clinical Recommendations Based on Expert Consensus Opinion.

    PubMed

    Chen, Jennifer K; Jacob, Sharon E; Nedorost, Susan T; Hanifin, Jon M; Simpson, Eric L; Boguniewicz, Mark; Watsky, Kalman L; Lugo-Somolinos, Aida; Hamann, Carsten R; Eberting, Cheryl Lee; Silverberg, Jonathan I; Thyssen, Jacob P

    2016-01-01

    Allergic contact dermatitis (ACD) may complicate the clinical course of atopic dermatitis (AD), and patch testing remains the criterion standard for diagnosing ACD. To date, there have been no guidelines or consensus recommendations on when and how to patch test individuals with AD. Failure to patch test when appropriate may result in overlooking an important and potentially curable complicating comorbidity. In this article, we present consensus recommendations regarding when to perform patch testing in the AD patient, best practices, and common pitfalls. Patch testing should be considered in AD patients with dermatitis that fails to improve with topical therapy; with atypical/changing distribution of dermatitis, or pattern suggestive of ACD; with therapy-resistant hand eczema in the working population; with adult- or adolescent-onset AD; and/or before initiating systemic immunosuppressants for the treatment of dermatitis. A suggested patch testing algorithm for AD patients is provided.

  8. Expert opinion and controversies in musculoskeletal and sports medicine: femoroacetabular impingement.

    PubMed

    Standaert, Christopher J; Manner, Paul A; Herring, Stanley A

    2008-05-01

    Femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) has been proposed as a distinct clinical entity that may be a potentially significant cause of hip osteoarthritis (OA). There is a growing body of literature on this condition, including descriptions of biomechanic mechanisms of impingement, anatomic and radiographic findings, and surgical interventions. Although a connection between anatomic abnormalities of the hip and the development of OA has been recognized for some time, there are limited data on the natural history of FAI and no long-term studies on the effect of surgical treatment. Thus, the diagnosis engenders a degree of controversy in multiple regards, including the diagnostic criteria and the role of operative intervention. PMID:18452737

  9. [Expert Opinion Cases - What documentation is necessary from a legal perspective?].

    PubMed

    Weis, Evelyn

    2016-05-01

    Doctors are obliged by professional code and civil law (630 f German Civil Code [BGB] §) to document their medical activities in relation to patients. The documentation serves as proof of executed measures and thus for backing up medical/therapeutic issues. Documentation shall be made immediately after or during the treatment and if the original content remains recognizable, can be supplemented/modified. The patient record may be kept in paper form or in electronic form. Medical records are to be stored at least for 10 years. Some special laws (eg. laws governing X rays, Transfusion Act) require that documents be stored for longer periods. Documentation errors are - unlike patient information errors/medical malpractice - no basis for damages claims by the patient, but may result in medical malpractice process with the burden of proof in favor of the patient (§ 630 h BGB). The patient has, in principle, the right to inspect the medical documents relating to him. PMID:27219297

  10. A Pragmatic Approach to Patch Testing Atopic Dermatitis Patients: Clinical Recommendations Based on Expert Consensus Opinion.

    PubMed

    Chen, Jennifer K; Jacob, Sharon E; Nedorost, Susan T; Hanifin, Jon M; Simpson, Eric L; Boguniewicz, Mark; Watsky, Kalman L; Lugo-Somolinos, Aida; Hamann, Carsten R; Eberting, Cheryl Lee; Silverberg, Jonathan I; Thyssen, Jacob P

    2016-01-01

    Allergic contact dermatitis (ACD) may complicate the clinical course of atopic dermatitis (AD), and patch testing remains the criterion standard for diagnosing ACD. To date, there have been no guidelines or consensus recommendations on when and how to patch test individuals with AD. Failure to patch test when appropriate may result in overlooking an important and potentially curable complicating comorbidity. In this article, we present consensus recommendations regarding when to perform patch testing in the AD patient, best practices, and common pitfalls. Patch testing should be considered in AD patients with dermatitis that fails to improve with topical therapy; with atypical/changing distribution of dermatitis, or pattern suggestive of ACD; with therapy-resistant hand eczema in the working population; with adult- or adolescent-onset AD; and/or before initiating systemic immunosuppressants for the treatment of dermatitis. A suggested patch testing algorithm for AD patients is provided. PMID:27427820

  11. Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

    PubMed Central

    Pedrini, Paolo; Brambilla, Mattia; Rolando, Antonio; Girardello, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds). For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community. PMID:26966659

  12. Student Views Concerning Evidence and the Expert in Reasoning a Socio-Scientific Issue and Personal Epistemology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Fang-Ying

    2005-01-01

    This study investigated their views concerning evidence and expert opinion of 10th-grade students, accessed by an open-ended questionnaire in the context of a socio-scientific issue: the cause of flood disasters, and personal epistemology identified by the "Learning Environment Preference Questionnaire" (LEP). Students' responses to the open-ended…

  13. Expert system application education project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.

    1988-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.

  14. A gene mapping expert system.

    PubMed

    Galland, J; Skolnick, M H

    1990-08-01

    Expert systems are now commonly developed to solve practical problems. Nevertheless, genetics has just begun to benefit from this new technology, since genetic expert systems are extremely rare and often purely experimental. A prototype for risk calculation in pedigrees was developed at the University of Utah, using a commercial frames/rules developmental shell (Intelligence Compiler), which runs on an IBM PC. When small data sets were used, the implementation functioned well, but it could not handle larger data sets. Performance became a major issue, with two possible solutions. The first possibility would have been to port the system to a more powerful machine, and the second would have been to use several different shells or languages, each efficiently representing a specific type of knowledge. Neither of these solutions was applicable in this case. From this experience, we learned that performance, portability, and modifiability were three major requirements for genetic expert systems. To achieve these goals, we implemented the gene mapping expert system GMES: (GMES is unrelated to the gene mapping system, GMS in Lisp combined with a frame/object shell (FROBS). We were able to efficiently represent, control, and optimize a gene mapping experiment, achieving portability by building GMES on top of a C-based version of Common Lisp. Lisp combined with the FROBS expert system shell permitted a declarative representation of each of the components of the experiment, resulting in a transplant specification of the problem within a maintainable system. PMID:2394090

  15. Neurolitigation: a perspective on the elements of expert testimony for extending the Daubert challenge.

    PubMed

    Klee, C H; Friedman, H J

    2001-01-01

    Scientific expert witness testimony has the potential for affecting most court decisions in civil and criminal proceedings. Since experts were first utilized in English courts beginning in the 14th century, most contemporary courts struggle with seeking a balance between plaintiff and defense counsel allowing each party its day in court while taking into account the work which other courts have done previously in determining the admissibility of expert witness testimony. When these challenges present themselves in the courtroom, often other courts have approached these identical issues, many in proceedings involving the same expert(s). Confronted with these challenges, trial judges want to understand whether a new Daubert hearing must be held, deal with the issue from a clean slate approach or whether they must reinvent the proverbial wheel. Given these dilemmas, this exposition is based within a heuristic approach that will focus on the consideration of comprehensive data inclusion from an evidentiary foundation as it applies to expert witness testimony admissibility in neurolitigation. While the evidential force of FRE 702 specifically applies to admissibility of scientific evidence, it makes sense that along with scientific, objective data, inclusion of non-medical and other data in forming and admitting expert opinions, have mutual bearing upon the validity of opinions arrived at through neuropsychological assessment. It is these multi-data that should be factored into account when applying the Federal Rule of Evidence 702 scientific admissibility standard. Data from other relevant sources is just as vital as data obtained from objective measures, and co-exists with objective data. Without the integration of this information into resulting diagnostic data and opinions, one's methodology is open to scrutiny and can willfully be characterized as engaging in "junk science". Specific, pragmatic issues are discussed in order to avoid the plausible "junk science

  16. A framework for building real-time expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, S. Daniel

    1991-01-01

    The Space Station Freedom is an example of complex systems that require both traditional and artificial intelligence (AI) real-time methodologies. It was mandated that Ada should be used for all new software development projects. The station also requires distributed processing. Catastrophic failures on the station can cause the transmission system to malfunction for a long period of time, during which ground-based expert systems cannot provide any assistance to the crisis situation on the station. This is even more critical for other NASA projects that would have longer transmission delays (e.g., the lunar base, Mars missions, etc.). To address these issues, a distributed agent architecture (DAA) is proposed that can support a variety of paradigms based on both traditional real-time computing and AI. The proposed testbed for DAA is an autonomous power expert (APEX) which is a real-time monitoring and diagnosis expert system for the electrical power distribution system of the space station.

  17. Epistemology applied to conclusions of expert reports.

    PubMed

    Lucena-Molina, Jose-Juan

    2016-07-01

    It is believed that to build a robust reasoning logic to make probabilistic inferences in forensic science from a merely mathematical or logistical viewpoint is not enough. Mathematical logic is the positive science of reasoning and as for that it is only interested in the positive calculus of its validity, regardless any prior ontological assumption. But without a determined ontology and epistemology which imply to define the concepts that they will use, it seems difficult that the proposed scientifically correct mathematical solution be successful as a European standard for making conclusions in forensic reports because it has to be based on judicial language. Forensic experts and Courts are not interested in the development of a positive science but in a practical science: in clarifying whether certain known facts are related to a possible crime. Therefore, not only the coherence of the demonstrative logic reasoning used (logic of propositions) is important, but also the precision of the concepts used by language and consistency among them in reasoning (logic of concepts). There is a linguistic level essential for a successful communication between the forensic practitioner and the Court which is mainly related, in our opinion, to semantics and figures of speech. The first one is involved because words used in forensic conclusions often have different meanings - it is said that they are polysemic - and the second one because there is often metonymy as well. Besides, semantic differences among languages regarding words with the same etymological root add another difficulty for a better mutual understanding. The two main European judicial systems inherit a wide and deep culture related to evidence in criminal proceedings and each of them has coined their own terminology but there are other two more abstract levels such as logical and epistemological, where we can find solid arguments by which terms used at legal level on conclusions of forensic reports could be

  18. Epistemology applied to conclusions of expert reports.

    PubMed

    Lucena-Molina, Jose-Juan

    2016-07-01

    It is believed that to build a robust reasoning logic to make probabilistic inferences in forensic science from a merely mathematical or logistical viewpoint is not enough. Mathematical logic is the positive science of reasoning and as for that it is only interested in the positive calculus of its validity, regardless any prior ontological assumption. But without a determined ontology and epistemology which imply to define the concepts that they will use, it seems difficult that the proposed scientifically correct mathematical solution be successful as a European standard for making conclusions in forensic reports because it has to be based on judicial language. Forensic experts and Courts are not interested in the development of a positive science but in a practical science: in clarifying whether certain known facts are related to a possible crime. Therefore, not only the coherence of the demonstrative logic reasoning used (logic of propositions) is important, but also the precision of the concepts used by language and consistency among them in reasoning (logic of concepts). There is a linguistic level essential for a successful communication between the forensic practitioner and the Court which is mainly related, in our opinion, to semantics and figures of speech. The first one is involved because words used in forensic conclusions often have different meanings - it is said that they are polysemic - and the second one because there is often metonymy as well. Besides, semantic differences among languages regarding words with the same etymological root add another difficulty for a better mutual understanding. The two main European judicial systems inherit a wide and deep culture related to evidence in criminal proceedings and each of them has coined their own terminology but there are other two more abstract levels such as logical and epistemological, where we can find solid arguments by which terms used at legal level on conclusions of forensic reports could be

  19. Register of hydrogen technology experts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ludtke, P. R.

    1975-01-01

    This register presents the names of approximately 235 individuals who are considered experts, or very knowledgeable, in various fields of technology related to hydrogen. Approximately 90 organizations are represented. Each person is listed by organizational affiliation, address, and principal area of expertise. The criteria for selection of names for the register are extensive experience in a given field of work, participation in or supervision of relevant research programs, contributions to the literature, or being recognized as an expert in a particular field. The purpose of the register is to present, in easy form, sources of dependable information regarding highly technical areas of hydrogen technology, with particular emphasis on safety. The register includes two indexes: an alphabetical listing of the experts and an alphabetical listing of the organizations with which they are affiliated.

  20. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  1. Expert witness and Jungian archetypes.

    PubMed

    Lallave, Juan Antonio; Gutheil, Thomas Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Jung's theories of archetype, shadow, and the personal and collective unconscious provide a postmodern framework in which to consider the role of the expert witness in judicial proceedings. Archetypal themes, motifs, and influences help to illuminate the shadow of the judicial system and projections and behaviors among the cast of the court in pursuing justice. This article speaks to archetypal influences and dialectical tensions encountered by the expert witness in this judicial drama. The archetype of Justice is born from the human need for order and relational fairness in a world of chaos. The persona of justice is the promise of truth in the drama. The shadow of justice is untruth, the need to win by any means. The dynamics of the trickster archetype serve and promote injustice. These influences are examined by means of a case example. This approach will deepen understanding of court proceedings and the role of the expert witness in the heroic quest for justice. PMID:23062586

  2. Lay Evaluation of Financial Experts: The Action Advice Effect and Confirmation Bias

    PubMed Central

    Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz; Gasiorowska, Agata; Stasiuk, Katarzyna; Maksymiuk, Renata; Bar-Tal, Yoram

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this experimental project was to investigate lay peoples’ perceptions of epistemic authority (EA) in the field of finance. EA is defined as the extent to which a source of information is treated as evidence for judgments independently of its objective expertise and based on subjective beliefs. Previous research suggested that EA evaluations are biased and that lay people tend to ascribe higher EA to experts who advise action (in the case of medical experts) or confirm clients’ expectations (in the case of politicians). However, there has been no research into biases in lay evaluations of financial experts and this project is aimed to fill this gap. Experiment 1 showed that lay people tended to ascribe greater authority to financial consultants who gave more active advice to clients considering taking out a mortgage. Experiment 2 confirmed the action advice effect found in Experiment 1. However, the outcomes of Experiments 2 and – particularly – 3 suggested that this bias might also be due to clients’ desire to confirm their own opinions. Experiment 2 showed that the action advice effect was moderated by clients’ own opinions on taking loans. Lay people ascribed the greatest EA to the advisor in the scenario in which he advised taking action and where this coincided with the client’s positive opinion on the advisability of taking out a loan. In Experiment 3 only participants with a positive opinion on the financial product ascribed greater authority to experts who recommended it; participants whose opinion was negative tended to rate consultants who advised rejecting the product more highly. To conclude, these three experiments revealed that lay people ascribe higher EA to financial consultants who advise action rather than maintenance of the status quo, but this effect is limited by confirmation bias: when the client’s a priori opinion is salient, greater authority is ascribed to experts whose advice confirms it. In this sense, results

  3. Biological Agents

    MedlinePlus

    ... to Z Index Contact Us FAQs What's New Biological Agents This page requires that javascript be enabled ... and Health Topics A-Z Index What's New Biological agents include bacteria, viruses, fungi, other microorganisms and ...

  4. Obstetricians’ Opinions of the Optimal Caesarean Rate: A Global Survey

    PubMed Central

    Cavallaro, Francesca L.; Cresswell, Jenny A.; Ronsmans, Carine

    2016-01-01

    Background The debate surrounding the optimal caesarean rate has been ongoing for several decades, with the WHO recommending an “acceptable” rate of 5–15% since 1997, despite a weak evidence base. Global expert opinion from obstetric care providers on the optimal caesarean rate has not been documented. The objective of this study was to examine providers’ opinions of the optimal caesarean rate worldwide, among all deliveries and within specific sub-groups of deliveries. Methods A global online survey of medical doctors who had performed at least one caesarean in the last five years was conducted between August 2013 and January 2014. Respondents were asked to report their opinion of the optimal caesarean rate—defined as the caesarean rate that would minimise poor maternal and perinatal outcomes—at the population level and within specific sub-groups of deliveries (including women with demographic and clinical risk factors for caesareans). Median reported optimal rates and corresponding inter-quartile ranges (IQRs) were calculated for the sample, and stratified according to national caesarean rate, institutional caesarean rate, facility level, and respondent characteristics. Results Responses were collected from 1,057 medical doctors from 96 countries. The median reported optimal caesarean rate was 20% (IQR: 15–30%) for all deliveries. Providers in private for-profit facilities and in facilities with high institutional rates reported optimal rates of 30% or above, while those in Europe, in public facilities and in facilities with low institutional rates reported rates of 15% or less. Reported optimal rates were lowest among low-risk deliveries and highest for Absolute Maternal Indications (AMIs), with wide IQRs observed for most categories other than AMIs. Conclusions Three-quarters of respondents reported an optimal caesarean rate above the WHO 15% upper threshold. There was substantial variation in responses, highlighting a lack of consensus around

  5. Museum Personnel's Opinions on Mobile Guidance Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yoshimura, Hirokazu; Sekiguchi, Hiromi; Yabumoto, Yoshitaka

    2007-01-01

    While opinions from the general public are certainly important, opinions from the museum staff are also necessary to improve user service systems. this article introduces two groups of museum staff who have evaluated the usability of mobile guidance systems in Japanese museums. One group is the research team who used the PDA system in the National…

  6. 38 CFR 14.507 - Opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... matters involving a legal issue decided in the precedent opinion, unless there has been a material change... conclusive as to all Department officials and employees with respect to the matter at issue, unless there has been a material change in controlling statute or regulation, a superseding written legal opinion by...

  7. 38 CFR 14.507 - Opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... matters involving a legal issue decided in the precedent opinion, unless there has been a material change... conclusive as to all Department officials and employees with respect to the matter at issue, unless there has been a material change in controlling statute or regulation, a superseding written legal opinion by...

  8. 38 CFR 14.507 - Opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... matters involving a legal issue decided in the precedent opinion, unless there has been a material change... conclusive as to all Department officials and employees with respect to the matter at issue, unless there has been a material change in controlling statute or regulation, a superseding written legal opinion by...

  9. 38 CFR 14.507 - Opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... matters involving a legal issue decided in the precedent opinion, unless there has been a material change... conclusive as to all Department officials and employees with respect to the matter at issue, unless there has been a material change in controlling statute or regulation, a superseding written legal opinion by...

  10. 24 CFR 1710.17 - Advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... Advisory opinion. (a) General. A developer may request an opinion from the Secretary as to whether an... developer should at least cite the applicable statutory or regulatory basis for the exemption or lack of... outside the purview of the Act. (3) An affirmation as shown below: Developer's Affirmation Name...

  11. 24 CFR 1710.17 - Advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... Advisory opinion. (a) General. A developer may request an opinion from the Secretary as to whether an... developer should at least cite the applicable statutory or regulatory basis for the exemption or lack of... outside the purview of the Act. (3) An affirmation as shown below: Developer's Affirmation Name...

  12. 24 CFR 1710.17 - Advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... Advisory opinion. (a) General. A developer may request an opinion from the Secretary as to whether an... developer should at least cite the applicable statutory or regulatory basis for the exemption or lack of... outside the purview of the Act. (3) An affirmation as shown below: Developer's Affirmation Name...

  13. 24 CFR 1710.17 - Advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... Advisory opinion. (a) General. A developer may request an opinion from the Secretary as to whether an... developer should at least cite the applicable statutory or regulatory basis for the exemption or lack of... outside the purview of the Act. (3) An affirmation as shown below: Developer's Affirmation Name...

  14. 24 CFR 1710.17 - Advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... Advisory opinion. (a) General. A developer may request an opinion from the Secretary as to whether an... developer should at least cite the applicable statutory or regulatory basis for the exemption or lack of... outside the purview of the Act. (3) An affirmation as shown below: Developer's Affirmation Name...

  15. Public Opinion Poll on Community Priorities: Sacramento

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sierra Health Foundation, 2009

    2009-01-01

    The primary goal of this study was to measure public perceptions, opinions and priorities as they pertain to youth issues in Sacramento for the purposes of further developing public and private youth programming and public policy in the Sacramento region. By presenting a "statistically reliable" profile of public opinion on youth issues, the…

  16. Public Opinion Poll Question Databases: An Evaluation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woods, Stephen

    2007-01-01

    This paper evaluates five polling resource: iPOLL, Polling the Nations, Gallup Brain, Public Opinion Poll Question Database, and Polls and Surveys. Content was evaluated on disclosure standards from major polling organizations, scope on a model for public opinion polls, and presentation on a flow chart discussing search limitations and usability.

  17. Internet Censorship in Turkey: University Students' Opinions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ozkan, Hasan; Arikan, Arda

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to study university students' opinions toward online censorship with references to their socio-political and economic variables. Considering the upwards trend and the increasing number of online restrictions in Turkey, the opinions of university students (n=138) are thought to give significant findings. The questionnaire…

  18. Environment and Public Opinion in Minnesota.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tichenor, P. J.; And Others

    Surveys conducted in Minnesota in 1969 and 1970 to obtain public opinion regarding environmental issues are discussed. Several generalizations are made about the state of public opinion about the environmental issue, as follows: (1) The environmental issue has reached public prominence through a sequence from professional and interest-group…

  19. Collaborators' Attitudes about Differences of Opinion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Creamer, Elizabeth G.

    2004-01-01

    This article describes how long-term collaborators interpret substantive differences of opinion and the strategies they use to negotiate them. Long-term collaborators are coauthors who have had a working relationship for ten or more years. Differences of opinion refer to differences in interpretation about substantive issues related to research…

  20. Nickel cadmium battery expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    The applicability of artificial intelligence methodologies for the automation of energy storage management, in this case, nickel cadmium batteries, is demonstrated. With the Hubble Space Telescope Electrical Power System (HST/EPS) testbed as the application domain, an expert system was developed which incorporates the physical characterization of the EPS, in particular, the nickel cadmium batteries, as well as the human's operational knowledge. The expert system returns not only fault diagnostics but also status and advice along with justifications and explanations in the form of decision support.

  1. Robotic planner expert system (RPLANES)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grice, Ervin Oneal

    1987-01-01

    The Artificial Intelligence Section of the Mission Planning and Analysis of the Johnson Space Center has developed a prototype of an expert system for robotic planning. A robot is given a high level goal to perform an action (i.e., swap, adjust, or stow) on a component unit of an object such as a satellite and the Robotic Planner Expert System (RPLANES) generates the necessary goals for arm actions. RPLANES is designed using the Inference Corp. Automated Reasoning Tool (ART) development tool. It resides on a SYMBOLICS 3670. RPLANES and its evolution are described.

  2. User interfaces to expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Agarwal, A.; Emrich, M.L.

    1988-10-01

    Expert Systems are becoming increasingly popular in environments where the user is not well versed in computers or the subject domain. They offer expert advice and can also explain their lines of reasoning. As these systems are applied to highly technical areas, they become complex and large. Therefore, User Systems Interfaces (USIs) become critical. This paper discusses recent technologies that can be applied to improved user communication. In particular, bar menus/graphics, mouse interfaces, touch screens, and voice links will be highlighted. Their applications in the context of SOFTMAN (The Software Manager Apprentice) a knowledge-based system are discussed. 18 refs., 2 figs.

  3. Are forensic experts biased by the side that retained them?

    PubMed

    Murrie, Daniel C; Boccaccini, Marcus T; Guarnera, Lucy A; Rufino, Katrina A

    2013-10-01

    How objective are forensic experts when they are retained by one of the opposing sides in an adversarial legal proceeding? Despite long-standing concerns from within the legal system, little is known about whether experts can provide opinions unbiased by the side that retained them. In this experiment, we paid 108 forensic psychologists and psychiatrists to review the same offender case files, but deceived some to believe that they were consulting for the defense and some to believe that they were consulting for the prosecution. Participants scored each offender on two commonly used, well-researched risk-assessment instruments. Those who believed they were working for the prosecution tended to assign higher risk scores to offenders, whereas those who believed they were working for the defense tended to assign lower risk scores to the same offenders; the effect sizes (d) ranged up to 0.85. The results provide strong evidence of an allegiance effect among some forensic experts in adversarial legal proceedings. PMID:23969777

  4. Thin slice expert testimony and mock trial deliberations.

    PubMed

    Parrott, Caroline Titcomb; Brodsky, Stanley L; Wilson, Jennifer Kelly

    2015-01-01

    This study examined impressions of expert witness testimony in a not guilty by reason of insanity defense on two outcomes: witness's credibility and verdict. Borrowing in part from the "thin slice" methodology, we assessed outcomes in a 2 (deliberating vs. non-deliberating jurors) × 3 (length of videotaped testimony) between-subjects design. In 30 mock juries, 188 participants viewed the testimony by a forensic psychologist; then half of the juries deliberated. Thinner slices of the testimony were defined by the lower (30s long) and upper (5 min long) temporal bounds in the literature. The third, fuller testimony condition was 10 min long and served as the accuracy marker for the shorter sliced exposures. We aimed to explore potential consequences to jurors relying on impressions of the expert, and his or her opinion, and to test that effect post deliberation. Accounting for deliberation, brief impressions of expert credibility generally exerted a similar influence on credibility to fuller considerations. The essential finding was that a two-way interaction emerged from time slice and deliberation on verdict for jurors in the 30s condition. Overall, predictive accuracy was found in the 5 min slice, yet accuracy was not supported in the predictions based on the shortest slice. Individually-formed impressions are not likely to translate to the verdict ballot post-deliberation. Instead, brief impressions are likely to be heavily influenced by deliberation. Implications for understanding how impression-based testimony evaluations translate from the jury box to the deliberation room are discussed.

  5. Spanish Consensus Guidelines on prophylaxis with bypassing agents in patients with haemophilia and inhibitors.

    PubMed

    López-Fernández, Maria Fernanda; Altisent Roca, Carmen; Álvarez-Román, Maria Teresa; Canaro Hirnyk, Mariana Isabel; Mingot-Castellano, Maria Eva; Jiménez-Yuste, Víctor; Cid Haro, Ana Rosa; Pérez-Garrido, Rosario; Sedano Balbas, Carmen

    2016-05-01

    Prophylaxis with the blood clotting factor, factor VIII (FVIII) is ineffective for individuals with haemophilia A and high-titre inhibitors to FVIII. Prophylaxis with the FVIII bypassing agents activated prothrombin complex concentrates (aPCC; FEIBA® Baxalta) or recombinant activated factor VII (rFVIIa; Novo-Seven®, Novo Nordisk) may be an effective alternative. It was our aim to develop evidence -and expert opinion- based guidelines for prophylactic therapy for patients with high-titre inhibitors to FVIII. A panel of nine Spanish haematologists undertook a systematic review of the literature to develop consensus-based guidance. Particular consideration was given to prophylaxis in patients prior to undergoing immune tolerance induction (ITI) (a process of continued exposure to FVIII that can restore sensitivity for some patients), during the ITI period and for those not undergoing ITI or for whom ITI had failed. These guidelines offer guidance for clinicians in deciding which patients might benefit from prophylaxis with FVIII bypassing agents, the most appropriate agents in various clinical settings related to ITI, doses and dosing regimens and how best to monitor the efficacy of prophylaxis. The paper includes recommendations on when to interrupt or stop prophylaxis and special safety concerns during prophylaxis. These consensus guidelines offer the most comprehensive evaluation of the clinical evidence base to date and should be of considerable benefit to clinicians facing the challenge of managing patients with severe haemophilia A with high-titre FVIII inhibitors. PMID:26842562

  6. Opinion formation models on a gradient.

    PubMed

    Gastner, Michael T; Markou, Nikolitsa; Pruessner, Gunnar; Draief, Moez

    2014-01-01

    Statistical physicists have become interested in models of collective social behavior such as opinion formation, where individuals change their inherently preferred opinion if their friends disagree. Real preferences often depend on regional cultural differences, which we model here as a spatial gradient g in the initial opinion. The gradient does not only add reality to the model. It can also reveal that opinion clusters in two dimensions are typically in the standard (i.e., independent) percolation universality class, thus settling a recent controversy about a non-consensus model. However, using analytical and numerical tools, we also present a model where the width of the transition between opinions scales proportional g(-1/4), not proportional g(-4/7) as in independent percolation, and the cluster size distribution is consistent with first-order percolation. PMID:25474528

  7. Opinion Formation Models on a Gradient

    PubMed Central

    Gastner, Michael T.; Markou, Nikolitsa; Pruessner, Gunnar; Draief, Moez

    2014-01-01

    Statistical physicists have become interested in models of collective social behavior such as opinion formation, where individuals change their inherently preferred opinion if their friends disagree. Real preferences often depend on regional cultural differences, which we model here as a spatial gradient g in the initial opinion. The gradient does not only add reality to the model. It can also reveal that opinion clusters in two dimensions are typically in the standard (i.e., independent) percolation universality class, thus settling a recent controversy about a non-consensus model. However, using analytical and numerical tools, we also present a model where the width of the transition between opinions scales , not as in independent percolation, and the cluster size distribution is consistent with first-order percolation. PMID:25474528

  8. OpinionFlow: Visual Analysis of Opinion Diffusion on Social Media.

    PubMed

    Wu, Yingcai; Liu, Shixia; Yan, Kai; Liu, Mengchen; Wu, Fangzhao

    2014-12-01

    It is important for many different applications such as government and business intelligence to analyze and explore the diffusion of public opinions on social media. However, the rapid propagation and great diversity of public opinions on social media pose great challenges to effective analysis of opinion diffusion. In this paper, we introduce a visual analysis system called OpinionFlow to empower analysts to detect opinion propagation patterns and glean insights. Inspired by the information diffusion model and the theory of selective exposure, we develop an opinion diffusion model to approximate opinion propagation among Twitter users. Accordingly, we design an opinion flow visualization that combines a Sankey graph with a tailored density map in one view to visually convey diffusion of opinions among many users. A stacked tree is used to allow analysts to select topics of interest at different levels. The stacked tree is synchronized with the opinion flow visualization to help users examine and compare diffusion patterns across topics. Experiments and case studies on Twitter data demonstrate the effectiveness and usability of OpinionFlow. PMID:26356890

  9. OpinionFlow: Visual Analysis of Opinion Diffusion on Social Media.

    PubMed

    Wu, Yingcai; Liu, Shixia; Yan, Kai; Liu, Mengchen; Wu, Fangzhao

    2014-12-01

    It is important for many different applications such as government and business intelligence to analyze and explore the diffusion of public opinions on social media. However, the rapid propagation and great diversity of public opinions on social media pose great challenges to effective analysis of opinion diffusion. In this paper, we introduce a visual analysis system called OpinionFlow to empower analysts to detect opinion propagation patterns and glean insights. Inspired by the information diffusion model and the theory of selective exposure, we develop an opinion diffusion model to approximate opinion propagation among Twitter users. Accordingly, we design an opinion flow visualization that combines a Sankey graph with a tailored density map in one view to visually convey diffusion of opinions among many users. A stacked tree is used to allow analysts to select topics of interest at different levels. The stacked tree is synchronized with the opinion flow visualization to help users examine and compare diffusion patterns across topics. Experiments and case studies on Twitter data demonstrate the effectiveness and usability of OpinionFlow.

  10. Heterogeneous beliefs, segregation, and extremism in the making of public opinions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galam, Serge

    2005-04-01

    The connection between contradictory public opinions, heterogeneous beliefs, and the emergence of majority- or minority-induced extremism is studied, extending our former two-state dynamic opinion model. Agents are attached to a social-cultural class. At each step they are distributed randomly in different groups within their respective classes to evolve locally by majority rule. In case of a tie the group adopts one or another opinion with respective probabilities k and (1-k) . The value of k accounts for the average of individual biases driven by the existence of heterogeneous beliefs within the corresponding class. It may vary from class to class. The process leads to extremism with a full polarization of each class along one opinion. For homogeneous classes the extremism can be along the initial minority making it minority induced. In contrast, heterogeneous classes exhibit more balanced dynamics, which results in a majority-induced extremism. Segregation among subclasses may produce a coexistence of opinions at the class level, thus averting global extremism. Insight into the existence of contradictory public opinions in similar social-cultural neighborhoods is given.

  11. Psychology of developing and designing expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Tonn, B.; MacGregor, D.

    1986-01-01

    This paper discusses psychological problems relevant to developing and designing expert systems. With respect to the former, the psychological literature suggests that several cognitive biases may affect the elicitation of a valid knowledge base from the expert. The literature also suggests that common expert system inference engines may be quite inconsistent with reasoning heuristics employed by experts. With respect to expert system user interfaces, care should be taken when eliciting uncertainty estimates from users, presenting system conclusions, and ordering questions.

  12. The Natural Gas Dilemma in New England's Electricity Sector: Experts' Perspectives on Long Term Climate Issues and Policy Opportunities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffith, Steven

    This thesis is an interpretive analysis of experts' perspectives on the climate implications of New England's reliance on natural gas for electricity generation. Specifically, this research, conducted through interviews and literature review, examines experts' opinions on the desired role of natural gas within the regional electricity sector, alternative energy resources, and state and regional policy opportunities toward the achievement of New England's ambitious long-term greenhouse gas reduction goals. Experts expressed concern about the climate dilemma posed by a dependence on natural gas. However, interviews revealed that short-term reliability and cost considerations are paramount for many experts, and therefore a reliance on natural gas is the existing reality. To incentivize renewable generation technologies for the purposes of long-term climate stabilization, experts advocated for the expanded implementation of renewable portfolio standard, net metering, and feed-in tariff policies. More broadly, interviewees expressed the need for an array of complementary state and regional policies.

  13. Teen Experts Guide Makerspace Makeover

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Graves, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    A makerspace is a place where makers can envision a project, find an expert, and create something. Libraries have always held programming during which patrons were able to come in and create. The makerspace at the Lamar Middle School in Flower Mound, Texas, is available for students every day, so that they can daily create and play with innovative…

  14. Expert Systems for Reference Work.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parrot, James R.

    1986-01-01

    Discussion of library reference work that may be suitable for use of expert systems focuses on (1) information and literature searches, and (2) requests to interpret bibliographic references and locate items listed. Systems and computer-assisted instruction modules designed for information retrieval at the University of Waterloo Library are…

  15. Expert systems for superalloy studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Workman, Gary L.; Kaukler, William F.

    1990-01-01

    There are many areas in science and engineering which require knowledge of an extremely complex foundation of experimental results in order to design methodologies for developing new materials or products. Superalloys are an area which fit well into this discussion in the sense that they are complex combinations of elements which exhibit certain characteristics. Obviously the use of superalloys in high performance, high temperature systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine is of interest to NASA. The superalloy manufacturing process is complex and the implementation of an expert system within the design process requires some thought as to how and where it should be implemented. A major motivation is to develop a methodology to assist metallurgists in the design of superalloy materials using current expert systems technology. Hydrogen embrittlement is disasterous to rocket engines and the heuristics can be very complex. Attacking this problem as one module in the overall design process represents a significant step forward. In order to describe the objectives of the first phase implementation, the expert system was designated Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement Expert System (HEEES).

  16. Expert Panels, Consumers, and Chemistry.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rehfeldt, Thomas K.

    2000-01-01

    Studied the attributes, properties, and consumer acceptance of antiperspirant products through responses of 400 consumers (consumer data), expert panel data, and analytical data about the products. Results show how the Rasch model can provide the tool necessary to combine data from several sources. (SLD)

  17. Sustainable rangeland management using a multi-fuzzy model: how to deal with heterogeneous experts' knowledge.

    PubMed

    Azadi, Hossein; Shahvali, Mansour; van den Berg, Jan; Faghih, Nezamoddin

    2007-04-01

    While fuzzy specialists commonly use homogeneous experts' knowledge to construct fuzzy models, it is much more difficult to deal with knowledge elicited from a heterogeneous group of experts. This issue is exemplified in the area of sustainable rangeland management (SRM). One way to deal with the diversity of opinions is to develop a fuzzy system for all experts and to combine all these, the so-called primary systems, into one multi-fuzzy model. To derive each of the primary fuzzy systems, several semi-structured interviews were held in three different areas of the Fars province in Southwest Iran using the knowledge of a group of administrative experts. To obtain the final output of the multi-fuzzy model, we applied different 'voting' methods. The first method simply uses the arithmetic average of the primary outputs as the final output of the multi-fuzzy model. This final output represents an estimation of the right rate of stocking (RRS). We also propose other (un)supervised voting methods. Most importantly, by harmonising the primary outputs such that outliers get less emphasis, we introduce an unsupervised voting method for calculating a weighted estimate of the RRS. This harmonising method is expected to provide a new useful tool for policymakers dealing with heterogenity in experts' opinions: it is especially useful where limited field data are available and one is forced to rely on experts' knowledge only. By constructing the three fuzzy models based on the elicitation of heterogeneous experts' knowledge, our study shows the multidimensional vaguenesses that exist in SRM. Finally, by comparing the final RRS with its common values, this study strongly points to the existence of overgrazing in pastures in the three regions of the Fars province in Southwest Iran. PMID:16887257

  18. Food-specific attribution of selected gastrointestinal illnesses: estimates from a Canadian expert elicitation survey.

    PubMed

    Davidson, Valerie J; Ravel, André; Nguyen, To N; Fazil, Aamir; Ruzante, Juliana M

    2011-09-01

    The study used a structured expert elicitation survey to derive estimates of food-specific attribution for nine illnesses caused by enteric pathogens in Canada. It was based on a similar survey conducted in the United States and focused on Campylobacter spp., Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica, Shigella spp., Vibrio spp., Yersinia enterocolitica, Cryptosporidium parvum, and Norwalk-like virus. A snowball approach was used to identify food safety experts within Canada. Survey respondents provided background information as well as self-assessments of their expertise for each pathogen and the 12 food categories. Depending on the pathogen, food source attribution estimates were based on responses from between 10 and 35 experts. For each pathogen, experts divided their estimates of total foodborne illness across 12 food categories and they provided a best estimate for each category as well as 5th and 95th percentile limits for foods considered to be vehicles. Their responses were treated as triangular probability distributions, and linear aggregation was used to combine the opinions of each group of experts for each pathogen-food source group. Across the 108 pathogen-food groups, a majority of experts agreed on 30 sources and 48 nonsources for illness. The number of food groups considered to be pathogen sources by a majority of experts varied by pathogen from a low of one food source for Vibrio spp. (seafood) and C. parvum (produce) to a high of seven food sources for Salmonella spp. Beta distributions were fitted to the aggregated opinions and were reasonable representations for most of the pathogen-food group attributions. These results will be used to quantitatively assess the burden of foodborne illness in Canada as well as to analyze the uncertainty in our estimates. PMID:21561379

  19. Food-specific attribution of selected gastrointestinal illnesses: estimates from a Canadian expert elicitation survey.

    PubMed

    Davidson, Valerie J; Ravel, André; Nguyen, To N; Fazil, Aamir; Ruzante, Juliana M

    2011-09-01

    The study used a structured expert elicitation survey to derive estimates of food-specific attribution for nine illnesses caused by enteric pathogens in Canada. It was based on a similar survey conducted in the United States and focused on Campylobacter spp., Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica, Shigella spp., Vibrio spp., Yersinia enterocolitica, Cryptosporidium parvum, and Norwalk-like virus. A snowball approach was used to identify food safety experts within Canada. Survey respondents provided background information as well as self-assessments of their expertise for each pathogen and the 12 food categories. Depending on the pathogen, food source attribution estimates were based on responses from between 10 and 35 experts. For each pathogen, experts divided their estimates of total foodborne illness across 12 food categories and they provided a best estimate for each category as well as 5th and 95th percentile limits for foods considered to be vehicles. Their responses were treated as triangular probability distributions, and linear aggregation was used to combine the opinions of each group of experts for each pathogen-food source group. Across the 108 pathogen-food groups, a majority of experts agreed on 30 sources and 48 nonsources for illness. The number of food groups considered to be pathogen sources by a majority of experts varied by pathogen from a low of one food source for Vibrio spp. (seafood) and C. parvum (produce) to a high of seven food sources for Salmonella spp. Beta distributions were fitted to the aggregated opinions and were reasonable representations for most of the pathogen-food group attributions. These results will be used to quantitatively assess the burden of foodborne illness in Canada as well as to analyze the uncertainty in our estimates.

  20. [The picture of malingered symptom presentation in public opinion].

    PubMed

    Schlicht, D; Merten, Thomas

    2014-09-01

    The views held by health experts on certain topics may differ drastically from what appears to be obvious from observations in daily living or public opinion. This is true for a number of myths which continue to haunt the literature with respect to feigned health problems. Such myths tend to ignore or to distort the results of modern research. We performed two pilot studies: first a content analysis of 67 German- and English-language articles from newspapers, magazines or internet journals, and second, a survey on the experience of, and beliefs related to, exaggeration and symptom invention in health care and forensic assessment. A non-representative sample of 15 adults from the general population was interviewed. Most of them reported their own experiences or incidents in their social networks involving feigned health problems. Base rate estimates of malingering in five prototypical contexts ranged between 46 and 67 percent of cases. While the participants showed a preference for an adaptational explanatory model of malingering (selected for about 53% of cases of malingering), journalistic sources often employed pejorative language and combat rhetoric, aiming to arouse indignation or outrage in the readership. The majority of articles were classified to adhere to a criminological explanatory model. While the pilot character of the studies limits their generalisability, the results may be suited to question the validity of some long-held expert beliefs.

  1. Emergence of metapopulations and echo chambers in mobile agents

    PubMed Central

    Starnini, Michele; Frasca, Mattia; Baronchelli, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    Multi-agent models often describe populations segregated either in the physical space, i.e. subdivided in metapopulations, or in the ecology of opinions, i.e. partitioned in echo chambers. Here we show how both kinds of segregation can emerge from the interplay between homophily and social influence in a simple model of mobile agents endowed with a continuous opinion variable. In the model, physical proximity determines a progressive convergence of opinions but differing opinions result in agents moving away from each others. This feedback between mobility and social dynamics determines the onset of a stable dynamical metapopulation scenario where physically separated groups of like-minded individuals interact with each other through the exchange of agents. The further introduction of confirmation bias in social interactions, defined as the tendency of an individual to favor opinions that match his own, leads to the emergence of echo chambers where different opinions coexist also within the same group. We believe that the model may be of interest to researchers investigating the origin of segregation in the offline and online world. PMID:27572928

  2. Emergence of metapopulations and echo chambers in mobile agents.

    PubMed

    Starnini, Michele; Frasca, Mattia; Baronchelli, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    Multi-agent models often describe populations segregated either in the physical space, i.e. subdivided in metapopulations, or in the ecology of opinions, i.e. partitioned in echo chambers. Here we show how both kinds of segregation can emerge from the interplay between homophily and social influence in a simple model of mobile agents endowed with a continuous opinion variable. In the model, physical proximity determines a progressive convergence of opinions but differing opinions result in agents moving away from each others. This feedback between mobility and social dynamics determines the onset of a stable dynamical metapopulation scenario where physically separated groups of like-minded individuals interact with each other through the exchange of agents. The further introduction of confirmation bias in social interactions, defined as the tendency of an individual to favor opinions that match his own, leads to the emergence of echo chambers where different opinions coexist also within the same group. We believe that the model may be of interest to researchers investigating the origin of segregation in the offline and online world. PMID:27572928

  3. Emergence of metapopulations and echo chambers in mobile agents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Starnini, Michele; Frasca, Mattia; Baronchelli, Andrea

    2016-08-01

    Multi-agent models often describe populations segregated either in the physical space, i.e. subdivided in metapopulations, or in the ecology of opinions, i.e. partitioned in echo chambers. Here we show how both kinds of segregation can emerge from the interplay between homophily and social influence in a simple model of mobile agents endowed with a continuous opinion variable. In the model, physical proximity determines a progressive convergence of opinions but differing opinions result in agents moving away from each others. This feedback between mobility and social dynamics determines the onset of a stable dynamical metapopulation scenario where physically separated groups of like-minded individuals interact with each other through the exchange of agents. The further introduction of confirmation bias in social interactions, defined as the tendency of an individual to favor opinions that match his own, leads to the emergence of echo chambers where different opinions coexist also within the same group. We believe that the model may be of interest to researchers investigating the origin of segregation in the offline and online world.

  4. Nonconsensus opinion model on directed networks.

    PubMed

    Qu, Bo; Li, Qian; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H Eugene; Wang, Huijuan

    2014-11-01

    Dynamic social opinion models have been widely studied on undirected networks, and most of them are based on spin interaction models that produce a consensus. In reality, however, many networks such as Twitter and the World Wide Web are directed and are composed of both unidirectional and bidirectional links. Moreover, from choosing a coffee brand to deciding who to vote for in an election, two or more competing opinions often coexist. In response to this ubiquity of directed networks and the coexistence of two or more opinions in decision-making situations, we study a nonconsensus opinion model introduced by Shao et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 103, 018701 (2009)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.103.018701] on directed networks. We define directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links in a network, and we use the linear correlation coefficient ρ between the in-degree and out-degree of a node to quantify the relation between the in-degree and out-degree. We introduce two degree-preserving rewiring approaches which allow us to construct directed networks that can have a broad range of possible combinations of directionality ξ and linear correlation coefficient ρ and to study how ξ and ρ impact opinion competitions. We find that, as the directionality ξ or the in-degree and out-degree correlation ρ increases, the majority opinion becomes more dominant and the minority opinion's ability to survive is lowered. PMID:25493838

  5. Nonconsensus opinion model on directed networks.

    PubMed

    Qu, Bo; Li, Qian; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H Eugene; Wang, Huijuan

    2014-11-01

    Dynamic social opinion models have been widely studied on undirected networks, and most of them are based on spin interaction models that produce a consensus. In reality, however, many networks such as Twitter and the World Wide Web are directed and are composed of both unidirectional and bidirectional links. Moreover, from choosing a coffee brand to deciding who to vote for in an election, two or more competing opinions often coexist. In response to this ubiquity of directed networks and the coexistence of two or more opinions in decision-making situations, we study a nonconsensus opinion model introduced by Shao et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 103, 018701 (2009)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.103.018701] on directed networks. We define directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links in a network, and we use the linear correlation coefficient ρ between the in-degree and out-degree of a node to quantify the relation between the in-degree and out-degree. We introduce two degree-preserving rewiring approaches which allow us to construct directed networks that can have a broad range of possible combinations of directionality ξ and linear correlation coefficient ρ and to study how ξ and ρ impact opinion competitions. We find that, as the directionality ξ or the in-degree and out-degree correlation ρ increases, the majority opinion becomes more dominant and the minority opinion's ability to survive is lowered.

  6. Are opinions based on science: modelling social response to scientific facts.

    PubMed

    Iñiguez, Gerardo; Tagüeña-Martínez, Julia; Kaski, Kimmo K; Barrio, Rafael A

    2012-01-01

    As scientists we like to think that modern societies and their members base their views, opinions and behaviour on scientific facts. This is not necessarily the case, even though we are all (over-) exposed to information flow through various channels of media, i.e. newspapers, television, radio, internet, and web. It is thought that this is mainly due to the conflicting information on the mass media and to the individual attitude (formed by cultural, educational and environmental factors), that is, one external factor and another personal factor. In this paper we will investigate the dynamical development of opinion in a small population of agents by means of a computational model of opinion formation in a co-evolving network of socially linked agents. The personal and external factors are taken into account by assigning an individual attitude parameter to each agent, and by subjecting all to an external but homogeneous field to simulate the effect of the media. We then adjust the field strength in the model by using actual data on scientific perception surveys carried out in two different populations, which allow us to compare two different societies. We interpret the model findings with the aid of simple mean field calculations. Our results suggest that scientifically sound concepts are more difficult to acquire than concepts not validated by science, since opposing individuals organize themselves in close communities that prevent opinion consensus.

  7. Are Opinions Based on Science: Modelling Social Response to Scientific Facts

    PubMed Central

    Iñiguez, Gerardo; Tagüeña-Martínez, Julia; Kaski, Kimmo K.; Barrio, Rafael A.

    2012-01-01

    As scientists we like to think that modern societies and their members base their views, opinions and behaviour on scientific facts. This is not necessarily the case, even though we are all (over-) exposed to information flow through various channels of media, i.e. newspapers, television, radio, internet, and web. It is thought that this is mainly due to the conflicting information on the mass media and to the individual attitude (formed by cultural, educational and environmental factors), that is, one external factor and another personal factor. In this paper we will investigate the dynamical development of opinion in a small population of agents by means of a computational model of opinion formation in a co-evolving network of socially linked agents. The personal and external factors are taken into account by assigning an individual attitude parameter to each agent, and by subjecting all to an external but homogeneous field to simulate the effect of the media. We then adjust the field strength in the model by using actual data on scientific perception surveys carried out in two different populations, which allow us to compare two different societies. We interpret the model findings with the aid of simple mean field calculations. Our results suggest that scientifically sound concepts are more difficult to acquire than concepts not validated by science, since opposing individuals organize themselves in close communities that prevent opinion consensus. PMID:22905117

  8. Making a team of experts into an expert team.

    PubMed

    Charney, Carol

    2011-10-01

    Health care has traditionally been delivered primarily by experts working individually in a decentralized system lacking cohesive organization among professional disciplines. Only recently have the advantages of teamwork training been acknowledged in health care. This article explores the history, benefits, and recommendations for team training in neonatal care. TeamSTEPPS (Rockville, MD) and the revised Neonatal Resuscitation Program are cited as promising models for improved neonatal outcomes through professional teamwork.

  9. Food irradiation: Public opinion surveys

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, S.D.

    1987-01-01

    The Canadian government are discussing the legislation, regulations and practical protocol necessary for the commercialization of food irradiation. Food industry marketing, public relations and media expertise will be needed to successfully introduce this new processing choice to retailers and consumers. Consumer research to date including consumer opinion studies and market trials conducted in the Netherlands, United States, South Africa and Canada will be explored for signposts to successful approaches to the introduction of irradiated foods to retailers and consumers. Research has indicated that the terms used to describe irradiation and information designed to reduce consumer fears will be important marketing tools. Marketers will be challenged to promote old foods, which look the same to consumers, in a new light. Simple like or dislike or intention to buy surveys will not be effective tools. Consumer fears must be identified and effectively handled to support a receptive climate for irradiated food products. A cooperative government, industry, health professional, consumer association and retailer effort will be necessary for the successful introduction of irradiated foods into the marketplace. Grocery Products Manufacturers of Canada is a national trade association of more than 150 major companies engaged in the manufacture of food, non-alcoholic beverages and array of other national-brand consumer items sold through retail outlets.

  10. [The role of the physician in expert testimony leading to an arrest].

    PubMed

    Marek, Z; Baran, E

    1989-01-01

    The authors have offered several problems related to a topic of medical professional activities of physicians being in contact with the administration of justice. There are presented opinions based on existent regulations and experiences associated with juridical expert activities of the authors. These opinions are about two problems that, according to obtained data, are made of controversies which stand between first-aid or ambulance doctors and law officers. The first problem deals with differences of opinion on obligations of physicians to examine drunk patients and to meet the requirements to put them into a sober room or--if there are any for a temporary stay into a prison. There has been also stated an opinion that this activity of physicians is included in a normal range of their professional duties. The second matter is concerned with the correctness of physicians' proceedings dealing with individuals arrested by militia and giving medical evidences that faces a problem whether stay in prison can or cannot constitute a threat for their life or health. It's been also founded that--in those cases--a physician has to be called a medicolegal opinion. The professional obligations of physicians still don't include this function and therefore it has to be granted separately.

  11. Expert credibility in climate change.

    PubMed

    Anderegg, William R L; Prall, James W; Harold, Jacob; Schneider, Stephen H

    2010-07-01

    Although preliminary estimates from published literature and expert surveys suggest striking agreement among climate scientists on the tenets of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), the American public expresses substantial doubt about both the anthropogenic cause and the level of scientific agreement underpinning ACC. A broad analysis of the climate scientist community itself, the distribution of credibility of dissenting researchers relative to agreeing researchers, and the level of agreement among top climate experts has not been conducted and would inform future ACC discussions. Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97-98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.

  12. Expert judgment and occupational hygiene: application to aerosol speciation in the nickel primary production industry.

    PubMed

    Ramachandran, Gurumurthy; Banerjee, Sudipto; Vincent, James H

    2003-08-01

    In many situations characterized by sparse data, occupational hygienists have used subjective judgments that are claimed to be derived from their experience and knowledge. While this practice is widespread, there has been no systematic study of 'expert judgment' or the 'art' of occupational hygiene. Indeed, there is a need to address the question of whether there is such a thing as 'expert opinion' in occupational hygiene that is broadly shared by practicing professionals. This research, employing 11 experts who estimate an exposure parameter (the percentages of four nickel species) in 12 workplaces in a nickel primary production industry, provides a large dataset from which useful inferences can be drawn about the quality of expert judgments and the variability among the experts. A well-designed questionnaire that provided succinct information about the processes and baseline data served to calibrate the experts. The Bayesian framework has been used in this work to develop posterior means and standard deviations of the percentages of the four nickel species in the 12 workplaces of interest in the company. These estimates of the nickel speciation are at least as precise as--and most of the time more precise than--those provided by the sparse measurement data. There was a very high degree of agreement among the experts. A majority of the experts agreed among themselves 92% of the time, while almost two-thirds agreed 73% of the time. This, coupled with the fact that the experts came from varied backgrounds, seems to suggest that there is indeed some broad body of specialized knowledge that the experts are drawing on to reach similar judgments. It also seems that one type of expert is not necessarily any better than any other kind, and expertise does not necessarily require intimate familiarity with the workplace. In this example, the expert judgment exercise has indeed enhanced the quality of our knowledge of the exposure 'fingerprints' for the nickel industry

  13. Heat exchanger expert system logic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cormier, R.

    1988-01-01

    The reduction is described of the operation and fault diagnostics of a Deep Space Network heat exchanger to a rule base by the application of propositional calculus to a set of logic statements. The value of this approach lies in the ease of converting the logic and subsequently implementing it on a computer as an expert system. The rule base was written in Process Intelligent Control software.

  14. Uncertainty reasoning in expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kreinovich, Vladik

    1993-01-01

    Intelligent control is a very successful way to transform the expert's knowledge of the type 'if the velocity is big and the distance from the object is small, hit the brakes and decelerate as fast as possible' into an actual control. To apply this transformation, one must choose appropriate methods for reasoning with uncertainty, i.e., one must: (1) choose the representation for words like 'small', 'big'; (2) choose operations corresponding to 'and' and 'or'; (3) choose a method that transforms the resulting uncertain control recommendations into a precise control strategy. The wrong choice can drastically affect the quality of the resulting control, so the problem of choosing the right procedure is very important. From a mathematical viewpoint these choice problems correspond to non-linear optimization and are therefore extremely difficult. In this project, a new mathematical formalism (based on group theory) is developed that allows us to solve the problem of optimal choice and thus: (1) explain why the existing choices are really the best (in some situations); (2) explain a rather mysterious fact that fuzzy control (i.e., control based on the experts' knowledge) is often better than the control by these same experts; and (3) give choice recommendations for the cases when traditional choices do not work.

  15. Expert disagreement in bitemark casework.

    PubMed

    Bowers, C Michael; Pretty, Iain A

    2009-07-01

    Bitemark cases continue to raise controversy due to the degree of expert disagreement which is frequently seen. Using a case mix of 49 bitemark cases from 2000 to 2007 each injury was independently assessed for its forensic significance using a previously described bitemark severity scale. Following the assessment, the mean value for the bites was categorized according to the crime type, the degree of expert agreement, and the judicial outcome. Results suggest that bitemarks found in child abuse cases have statistically significantly lower forensic value than those in other crime types, that bites where there is mutual agreement between experts will have higher forensic value than those where there is disagreement at trial, and that cases in which DNA has provided an exoneration will demonstrate similar quality to those where a conviction was secured. Forensic odontologists should carefully assess bitemark evidence and ensure that it meets certain minimums in relation to the presence of class and unique features before undertaking an analysis. PMID:19486248

  16. Expert searching in public health

    PubMed Central

    Alpi, Kristine M.

    2005-01-01

    Objective: The article explores the characteristics of public health information needs and the resources available to address those needs that distinguish it as an area of searching requiring particular expertise. Methods: Public health searching activities from reference questions and literature search requests at a large, urban health department library were reviewed to identify the challenges in finding relevant public health information. Results: The terminology of the information request frequently differed from the vocabularies available in the databases. Searches required the use of multiple databases and/or Web resources with diverse interfaces. Issues of the scope and features of the databases relevant to the search questions were considered. Conclusion: Expert searching in public health differs from other types of expert searching in the subject breadth and technical demands of the databases to be searched, the fluidity and lack of standardization of the vocabulary, and the relative scarcity of high-quality investigations at the appropriate level of geographic specificity. Health sciences librarians require a broad exposure to databases, gray literature, and public health terminology to perform as expert searchers in public health. PMID:15685281

  17. Onboard navigation rendezvous expert system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kocen, Michelle

    The Onboard Navigation rendezvous expert system is designed to aid the ground flight controller in monitoring the shuttle onboard navigation system. The system is designed to keep track of the navigation sensors and relative state vectors. In addition, the system also keeps an event log and fills out forms usually handled by the flight controller. This expert system is one of the few rendezvous specific systems being developed for the Mission Control Center. The expert system has been in development for six years. Through these years the system has seen hardware, software, and personnel changes. Initial development was done by the Information Systems Directorate (ISD) and Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) at Johnson Space Center. As of October 1, 1991 the system has been turned over to MOD. The system is completely developed except for some minor adjustments to the user interface. The rule base is in the verification stage with total certification of the system due to be completed by May 1992. Test cases for verification are obtained by saving data used for flight controller integrated simulations. The actual data comes from both the shuttle mission simulator and the Mission Control Center Computer. So far no actual flight data has been available. This paper covers all aspects of the system from the development history to the current hardware, software, and use of the system.

  18. 21 CFR 10.85 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ...) (Mailing address) (Telephone number) (c) The Commissioner may respond to an oral or written request to the... index of all advisory opinions filed. The index will specify the date of the request for the...

  19. The Bakke Opinions and Equal Protection Doctrine.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karst, Kenneth L.; Horowitz, Harold W.

    1979-01-01

    Constitutional issues addressed in the Supreme Court's decision are reviewed. The opinions rendered by Justice Powell are viewed as reflections of the weakness of recent equal protection theory, and as signs of future doctrine. (GC)

  20. Kinetic model for multidimensional opinion formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boudin, Laurent; Monaco, Roberto; Salvarani, Francesco

    2010-03-01

    In this paper, we deal with a kinetic model to describe the evolution of the opinion in a closed group with respect to a choice between multiple options (e.g., political parties), which takes into account two main mechanisms of opinion formation, namely, the interaction between individuals and the effect of the mass media. We numerically test the model in some relevant cases and eventually provide an existence and a uniqueness result for it.

  1. Scientific Experts and the Controversy About Teaching Creation/Evolution in the UK Press

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allgaier, Joachim

    2010-06-01

    The issue whether creationist accounts of the origins of life should be taught in science education alongside or even instead Darwin’s theory of evolution is controversial in many countries. In 2002 there was a controversy around teaching creationism in science classes at a secondary school in England. The research presented in this paper uses this controversy around teaching creationism/evolution as case study to find out more about the public representation of science education. Here it focuses on the question who the experts were that appeared in the press coverage and examines the role of scientific experts in this controversy. Expertise is a key resource in many public controversies involving science and can also have an impact on decision-making processes and on the public opinion. Also the way expert sources are presented in media accounts of socio-scientific controversies can have an effect on how their credibility is perceived and the arguments being made.

  2. Kinetic models of opinion formation in the presence of personal conviction.

    PubMed

    Brugna, Carlo; Toscani, Giuseppe

    2015-11-01

    We consider a nonlinear kinetic equation of Boltzmann type, which takes into account the influence of conviction during the formation of opinion in a system of agents, which interact through the binary exchanges, introduced by Toscani [G. Toscani, Commun. Math. Sci. 4, 481 (2006)]. The original exchange mechanism, which is based on the human tendency to compromise and change of opinion through self-thinking, is here modified in the parameters of the compromise and diffusion terms, which now are assumed to depend on the personal degree of conviction. The numerical simulations show that the presence of conviction has the potential to break symmetry, and to produce clusters of opinions. The model is partially inspired by the recent work [L. Pareschi and G. Toscani, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 372, 20130396 (2014)], in which the role of knowledge in the formation of wealth distribution has been investigated. PMID:26651755

  3. [The CSI effect and its impact on the perceptions of forensic science experts' work].

    PubMed

    Stojer, Joanna

    2011-01-01

    The issue that has been analyzed in this work is the potential effect of crime films and TV series on people's perceptions of forensic medicine and science, and especially on the forming of expectations towards forensic science experts. This syndrome is being called the "CSI effect" after the popular franchise Crime Scene Investigation (CSI). Questionnaire surveys that have been conducted included "experts": 50 experts in various specialities, 77 prosecutors, 119 judges, 64 lay judges, 161 police staff and 80 members of general public. In-depth interviews have been conducted with 20 police staff, and also a focus group has been carried out with 15 law students. In the opinion of the respondents, people's perceptions and expectations of forensic science--as it can be observed during criminal trials--are largely inflated by the entertainment media. Among the surveyed persons, the category that declares watching crime series most rarely, is forensic science experts. Around half of the surveyed experts pointed out to excessive expectations towards they work instigated by TV crime series. The most common expectations towards forensic medicine experts are: immediate conclusiveness of post mortem examinations (going as far as indicating the cause of death at the crime scene), precision of death time estimation and a routine use of sophisticated methods known from TV.

  4. Stochastic population forecasting based on combinations of expert evaluations within the Bayesian paradigm.

    PubMed

    Billari, Francesco C; Graziani, Rebecca; Melilli, Eugenio

    2014-10-01

    This article suggests a procedure to derive stochastic population forecasts adopting an expert-based approach. As in previous work by Billari et al. (2012), experts are required to provide evaluations, in the form of conditional and unconditional scenarios, on summary indicators of the demographic components determining the population evolution: that is, fertility, mortality, and migration. Here, two main purposes are pursued. First, the demographic components are allowed to have some kind of dependence. Second, as a result of the existence of a body of shared information, possible correlations among experts are taken into account. In both cases, the dependence structure is not imposed by the researcher but rather is indirectly derived through the scenarios elicited from the experts. To address these issues, the method is based on a mixture model, within the so-called Supra-Bayesian approach, according to which expert evaluations are treated as data. The derived posterior distribution for the demographic indicators of interest is used as forecasting distribution, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is designed to approximate this posterior. This article provides the questionnaire designed by the authors to collect expert opinions. Finally, an application to the forecast of the Italian population from 2010 to 2065 is proposed.

  5. Cataloging Expert Systems: Optimism and Frustrated Reality.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Olmstadt, William J.

    2000-01-01

    Discusses artificial intelligence and attempts to catalog expert systems. Topics include the nature of expertise; examples of cataloging expert systems; barriers to implementation; and problems, including total automation, cataloging expertise, priorities, and system design. (LRW)

  6. Galaxy Classification: Citizen Scientists versus Experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kautsch, Stefan J.; Vazquez, Richard; Phung, Chau; VanHilst, Michael; Castro, Victor H.; Bizyaev, Dmitry

    2016-01-01

    We present the differences of morphological galaxy classification between non-experts and experts. The non-experts are represented by college students and a retired adult community, who use an online application to visually classify galaxies selected from a galaxy morphology catalog. We find that the non-expert group lags the expert classification by one Hubble type behind, for instance, the non-experts classify a set of galaxies with Sb, while the experts classify the same set as Sc. We believe the reason is because the Hubble sequence is increasing the asymmetric structures towards later types. Our results show that the experts have the ability to identify more detailed structures, which the laymen commonly do not recognize.

  7. Functioning and disability in autism spectrum disorder: A worldwide survey of experts

    PubMed Central

    de Schipper, Elles; Mahdi, Soheil; de Vries, Petrus; Granlund, Mats; Holtmann, Martin; Karande, Sunil; Almodayfer, Omar; Shulman, Cory; Tonge, Bruce; Wong, Virginia V.C.N.; Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie

    2016-01-01

    Objective: This study is the second of four to prepare International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF; and Children and Youth version, ICF(‐CY)) Core Sets for Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD).The objective of this study was to survey the opinions and experiences of international experts on functioning and disability in ASD. Methods: Using a protocol stipulated by the World Health Organization (WHO) and monitored by the ICF Research Branch, an email‐based questionnaire was circulated worldwide among ASD experts, and meaningful functional ability and disability concepts were extracted from their responses. These concepts were then linked to the ICF(‐CY) by two independent researchers using a standardized linking procedure. Results: N = 225 experts from 10 different disciplines and all six WHO‐regions completed the survey. Meaningful concepts from the responses were linked to 210 ICF(‐CY) categories. Of these, 103 categories were considered most relevant to ASD (i.e., identified by at least 5% of the experts), of which 37 were related to Activities and Participation, 35 to Body functions, 22 to Environmental factors, and 9 to Body structures. A variety of personal characteristics and ASD‐related functioning skills were provided by experts, including honesty, loyalty, attention to detail and creative talents. Reported gender differences in ASD comprised more externalizing behaviors among males and more internalizing behaviors in females. Conclusion: The ICF(‐CY) categories derived from international expert opinions indicate that the impact of ASD on functioning extends far beyond core symptom domains. Autism Res 2016, 9: 959–969. © 2016 The Authors Autism Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society for Autism Research PMID:26749373

  8. SciVal Experts: a collaborative tool.

    PubMed

    Vardell, Emily; Feddern-Bekcan, Tanya; Moore, Mary

    2011-01-01

    SciVal Experts is a resource for finding experts and fostering collaboration. The tool creates researcher profiles with automatically updated publication and grant information and faculty-inputted curriculum vitae, more fully capturing a researcher's body of work. SciVal Experts indexes campus-based "experts" by research topic, allowing faculty to find potential research partners and mentors, furthering translational research opportunities and dissemination of knowledge.

  9. Expert systems applied to spacecraft fire safety

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Richard L.; Kashiwagi, Takashi

    1989-01-01

    Expert systems are problem-solving programs that combine a knowledge base and a reasoning mechanism to simulate a human expert. The development of an expert system to manage fire safety in spacecraft, in particular the NASA Space Station Freedom, is difficult but clearly advantageous in the long-term. Some needs in low-gravity flammability characteristics, ventilating-flow effects, fire detection, fire extinguishment, and decision models, all necessary to establish the knowledge base for an expert system, are discussed.

  10. 42 CFR 1008.51 - Exclusivity of OIG advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Scope and Effect of OIG Advisory Opinions § 1008.51... binding advisory opinion, oral or written, has or may be issued by the OIG regarding the specific matters set forth in § 1008.5(a) except through written opinions issued in accordance with this part....

  11. 22 CFR 126.9 - Advisory opinions and related authorizations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Advisory opinions and related authorizations... GENERAL POLICIES AND PROVISIONS § 126.9 Advisory opinions and related authorizations. (a) Advisory opinion... defense service to a particular country may request an advisory opinion from the Directorate of...

  12. 42 CFR 411.389 - Range of the advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Range of the advisory opinion. 411.389 Section 411.389 Public Health CENTERS FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES... opinion. (a) An advisory opinion states only CMS's opinion regarding the subject matter of the request....

  13. A Self-Categorization Explanation for Opinion Consensus Perceptions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Jinguang; Reid, Scott A.

    2013-01-01

    The public expression of opinions (and related communicative activities) hinges upon the perception of opinion consensus. Current explanations for opinion consensus perceptions typically focus on egocentric and other biases, rather than functional cognitions. Using self-categorization theory we showed that opinion consensus perceptions flow from…

  14. What Is An Expert System? ERIC Digest.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boss, Richard W.

    This digest describes and defines the various components of an expert system, e.g., a computerized tool designed to enhance the quality and availability of knowledge required by decision makers. It is noted that expert systems differ from conventional applications software in the following areas: (1) the existence of the expert systems shell, or…

  15. Differentiating Experts' Anticipatory Skills in Beach Volleyball

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Canal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J. P.

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos…

  16. Expert Systems and Intelligent Information Retrieval.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brooks, H. M.

    1987-01-01

    Explores what an intelligent information retrieval system involves and why expert system techniques might interest system designers. Expert systems research is reviewed with emphasis on components, architecture, and computer interaction, and it is concluded that information retrieval is not an ideal problem domain for expert system application at…

  17. 16 CFR 1025.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Expert witnesses. 1025.44 Section 1025.44 Commercial Practices CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY COMMISSION GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Hearings § 1025.44 Expert witnesses. (a) Definition. An expert witness is one who, by reason of education, training, experience,...

  18. 16 CFR 1025.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Expert witnesses. 1025.44 Section 1025.44 Commercial Practices CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY COMMISSION GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Hearings § 1025.44 Expert witnesses. (a) Definition. An expert witness is one who, by reason of education, training, experience,...

  19. Explanation production by expert planners

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bridges, Susan; Jhannes, James D.

    1988-01-01

    Although the explanation capability of expert systems is usually listed as one of the distinguishing characteristics of these systems, the explanation facilities of most existing systems are quite primitive. Computer generated explanations are typically produced from canned text or by direct translation of the knowledge structures. Explanations produced in this manner bear little resemblance to those produced by humans for similar tasks. The focus of our research in explanation is the production of justifications for decisions by expert planning systems. An analysis of justifications written by people for planning tasks has been taken as the starting point. The purpose of this analysis is two-fold. First, analysis of the information content of the justifications will provide a basis for deciding what knowledge must be represented if human-like justifications are to be produced. Second, an analysis of the textual organization of the justifications will be used in the development of a mechanism for selecting and organizing the knowledge to be included in a computer-produced explanation. This paper describes a preliminary analysis done of justifications written by people for a planning task. It is clear that these justifications differ significantly from those that would be produced by an expert system by tracing the firing of production rules. The results from the text analysis have been used to develop an augmented phrase structured grammar (APSG) describing the organization of the justifications. The grammar was designed to provide a computationally feasible method for determining textual organization that will allow the necessary information to be communicated in a cohesive manner.

  20. Identifying Network Public Opinion Leaders Based on Markov Logic Networks

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Weizhe; Li, Xiaoqiang; He, Hui; Wang, Xing

    2014-01-01

    Public opinion emergencies have important effect on social activities. Recognition of special communities like opinion leaders can contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the development trend of public opinion. In this paper, a network opinion leader recognition method based on relational data was put forward, and an opinion leader recognition system integrating public opinion data acquisition module, data characteristic selection, and fusion module as well as opinion leader discovery module based on Markov Logic Networks was designed. The designed opinion leader recognition system not only can overcome the incomplete data acquisition and isolated task of traditional methods, but also can recognize opinion leaders comprehensively with considerations to multiple problems by using the relational model. Experimental results demonstrated that, compared with the traditional methods, the proposed method can provide a more accurate opinion leader recognition and has good noise immunity. PMID:24977188

  1. Identifying network public opinion leaders based on Markov Logic Networks.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Weizhe; Li, Xiaoqiang; He, Hui; Wang, Xing

    2014-01-01

    Public opinion emergencies have important effect on social activities. Recognition of special communities like opinion leaders can contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the development trend of public opinion. In this paper, a network opinion leader recognition method based on relational data was put forward, and an opinion leader recognition system integrating public opinion data acquisition module, data characteristic selection, and fusion module as well as opinion leader discovery module based on Markov Logic Networks was designed. The designed opinion leader recognition system not only can overcome the incomplete data acquisition and isolated task of traditional methods, but also can recognize opinion leaders comprehensively with considerations to multiple problems by using the relational model. Experimental results demonstrated that, compared with the traditional methods, the proposed method can provide a more accurate opinion leader recognition and has good noise immunity.

  2. [Medicolegal opinions assessing the ability to undergo imprisonment vs. capacity of the Prison Health Service facilities].

    PubMed

    Jurek, Tomasz; Bujak, Marek; Szostak, Maciej; Swiatek, Barbara

    2008-01-01

    Estimating the subject's ability to undergo imprisonment has become a medicolegal opinionating problem. Polish penal law indicates the presence of negative prerequisites, such as a "serious disease" and "important health-associated reasons". In these cases, the conditions of imprisonment pose a direct danger of death or detriment to health. Interruption of imprisonment or remission of the penalty of imprisonment must constitute the only possibility of avoiding such dangers. In his opinion, the expert should define the health-associated needs of the condemned and the possibilities of meeting such needs in the situation of imprisonment, also taking into consideration the capacity of the prison health service facility and its cooperation with regular health care institutions.

  3. World Ocean Assessment experts needed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2012-07-01

    The United Nations (UN) is inviting interested scientists to apply to be members of an international pool of 1000-2000 experts who will be authors and reviewers of its first World Ocean Assessment (WOA) report, slated for completion in 2014. The UN anticipates that subsequent WOA reports will be generated on a 5-year cycle. The first report will include more than 50 subjects grouped within four main themes: marine environment and understanding of the ocean's role in the global integrated Earth system, food security and safety, human activities that influence the ocean or are influenced by the ocean, and marine biological diversity. A scientific and technical summary is also planned.

  4. Diet expert subsystem for CELSS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yendler, Boris S.; Nguyen, Thoi K.; Waleh, Ahmad

    1991-01-01

    An account is given of the mathematical basis of a diet-controlling expert system, designated 'Ceres' for the human crews of a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS). The Ceres methodology can furnish both steady-state and dynamic diet solutions; the differences between Ceres and a conventional nutritional-modeling method is illustrated by the case of a three-component, potato-wheat-soybean food system. Attention is given to the role of food processing in furnishing flexibility in diet-planning management. Crew diet solutions based on simple optimizations are not necessarily the most suitable for optimum CELSS operation.

  5. Expert system for train control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drish, William F., Jr.

    1995-08-01

    The train energy model (TEM), a general train simulator developed at the Association of American Railroads, is widely used in the railroad industry. Recently, a new train controller, the general automatic train-controller (GAT), has been developed for TEM. In the GAT, the 'intelligence' or 'expertise' is a set of 'if-then' train-handling rules in an external file. The expert system for train control presented in this paper is a slightly simplified version of the GAT. The main thesis of this paper is: simple, unchained rules are adequate for complex train control. Thus, an 'inference engine' using forward chaining is not required.

  6. Fuzzy expert systems using CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Le, Thach C.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a CLIPS-based fuzzy expert system development environment called FCLIPS and illustrates its application to the simulated cart-pole balancing problem. FCLIPS is a straightforward extension of CLIPS without any alteration to the CLIPS internal structures. It makes use of the object-oriented and module features in CLIPS version 6.0 for the implementation of fuzzy logic concepts. Systems of varying degrees of mixed Boolean and fuzzy rules can be implemented in CLIPS. Design and implementation issues of FCLIPS will also be discussed.

  7. Neuropsychologist Experts and Civil Capacity Evaluations: Representative Cases.

    PubMed

    Kaufmann, Paul M

    2016-09-01

    Clinical neuropsychologists accept more forensic referrals now and spend more time in forensic consulting than ever before. Recent surveys show weekly hours devoted to forensic consulting increased 97% in the past decade. During the same time period, the number of board certified neuropsychologists more than doubled. Under recently published Specialty Guidelines for Forensic Psychology, clinical neuropsychologists practice forensic psychology when applying scientific, technical, or specialized knowledge of neuropsychology to the law to assist in addressing legal, contractual, or administrative matters. Among those increasingly varied forensic referrals, clinical neuropsychologists are conducting more civil competency and capacity evaluations. Representative cases from three jurisdictions demonstrate how neuropsychologists provide expertize in matters involving testamentary capacity, contractual capacity, business judgments, and job capacity. Case presentations illustrate some of the strengths and weaknesses of neuropsychological evaluation of civil capacities. The article concludes with a "battle of experts" case involving five neuropsychologists with opposing opinions recently heard in a Federal Appellate court. Implications for neuropschology training and forensic competencies are considered. In offering quality services to the legal profession, neuropsychologists support the truth-seeking function of the judiciary, promote justice, protect the profession, and serve public policy. PMID:27538441

  8. Utilizing Expert Knowledge in Estimating Future STS Costs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fortner, David B.; Ruiz-Torres, Alex J.

    2004-01-01

    A method of estimating the costs of future space transportation systems (STSs) involves classical activity-based cost (ABC) modeling combined with systematic utilization of the knowledge and opinions of experts to extend the process-flow knowledge of existing systems to systems that involve new materials and/or new architectures. The expert knowledge is particularly helpful in filling gaps that arise in computational models of processes because of inconsistencies in historical cost data. Heretofore, the costs of planned STSs have been estimated following a "top-down" approach that tends to force the architectures of new systems to incorporate process flows like those of the space shuttles. In this ABC-based method, one makes assumptions about the processes, but otherwise follows a "bottoms up" approach that does not force the new system architecture to incorporate a space-shuttle-like process flow. Prototype software has been developed to implement this method. Through further development of software, it should be possible to extend the method beyond the space program to almost any setting in which there is a need to estimate the costs of a new system and to extend the applicable knowledge base in order to make the estimate.

  9. Behavioural Signs of Pain in Cats: An Expert Consensus

    PubMed Central

    Merola, Isabella; Mills, Daniel S.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To identify where a consensus can be reached between veterinary experts in feline medicine on the core signs sufficient for pain (sufficient to indicate pain when they occur, but not necessarily present in all painful conditions) and necessary for pain (necessary in the presence of pain, but not always indicative of pain). Methods A modified Delphi technique was used, consisting of four rounds of questions and evaluation using nineteen participants during the period December 2014 and May 2015. Agreement was considered to be established when 80% of the experts concurred with the same opinion. Results Twenty-five signs were considered sufficient to indicate pain, but no single sign was considered necessary for it. Discussion Further studies are needed to evaluate the validity of these 25 behavioural signs if a specific pain assessment tool is to be developed that is capable of assessing pain in cats based on observational methods alone. The signs reported here may nonetheless help both vets and owners form an initial evaluation of the pain status of cats in their care. PMID:26909809

  10. Neuropsychologist Experts and Civil Capacity Evaluations: Representative Cases.

    PubMed

    Kaufmann, Paul M

    2016-09-01

    Clinical neuropsychologists accept more forensic referrals now and spend more time in forensic consulting than ever before. Recent surveys show weekly hours devoted to forensic consulting increased 97% in the past decade. During the same time period, the number of board certified neuropsychologists more than doubled. Under recently published Specialty Guidelines for Forensic Psychology, clinical neuropsychologists practice forensic psychology when applying scientific, technical, or specialized knowledge of neuropsychology to the law to assist in addressing legal, contractual, or administrative matters. Among those increasingly varied forensic referrals, clinical neuropsychologists are conducting more civil competency and capacity evaluations. Representative cases from three jurisdictions demonstrate how neuropsychologists provide expertize in matters involving testamentary capacity, contractual capacity, business judgments, and job capacity. Case presentations illustrate some of the strengths and weaknesses of neuropsychological evaluation of civil capacities. The article concludes with a "battle of experts" case involving five neuropsychologists with opposing opinions recently heard in a Federal Appellate court. Implications for neuropschology training and forensic competencies are considered. In offering quality services to the legal profession, neuropsychologists support the truth-seeking function of the judiciary, promote justice, protect the profession, and serve public policy.

  11. Novel epigallocatechin gallate analogs as potential anticancer agents: a patent review (2009 – present)

    PubMed Central

    Landis-Piwowar, Kristin; Chen, Di; Foldes, Robert; Chan, Tak-Hang; Dou, Qing Ping

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Over the past three years numerous patents and patent applications have been published relating to scientific advances in the use of the green tea polyphenol epigallocatechin gallate (EGCG) (the most abundant, and bioactive compound in green tea) and its analogs as anticancer agents. EGCG affects multiple molecular targets involved in cancer cell proliferation and survival; however, polyphenolic catechins, such as EGCG, generally exhibit poor oral bioavailability. Since the anticancer activity of polyphenols largely depends on their susceptibility to biotransformation reactions, numerous EGCG derivatives, analogs and prodrugs have been designed to improve the stability, bioavailability and anticancer potency of the native compound. Areas covered This review focuses on the applications of EGCG and its analogs, derivatives and prodrugs in the prevention and treatment of human cancers. A comprehensive description of patents related to EGCG and its derivatives, analogs and prodrugs and their uses as anticancer agents is included. Expert opinion EGCG targets multiple essential survival proteins and pathways in human cancer cells. Because it is unstable physiologically, numerous alterations to the EGCG molecule have been patented, either to improve the integrity of the native compound or to generate a more stable yet similarly efficacious molecule. EGCG and its derivatives, analogs and prodrugs could be developed into future drugs for chemoprevention, chemosensitization, radiosensitization and/or cancer interception. PMID:23230990

  12. Collaborative Information Agents on the World Wide Web

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, James R.; Mathe, Nathalie; Wolfe, Shawn; Koga, Dennis J. (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    In this paper, we present DIAMS, a system of distributed, collaborative information agents which help users access, collect, organize, and exchange information on the World Wide Web. Personal agents provide their owners dynamic displays of well organized information collections, as well as friendly information management utilities. Personal agents exchange information with one another. They also work with other types of information agents such as matchmakers and knowledge experts to facilitate collaboration and communication.

  13. Nickel hydrogen battery expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shiva, Sajjan G.

    1991-01-01

    The Hubble Telescope Battery Testbed at MSFC uses the Nickel Cadmium (NiCd) Battery Expert System (NICBES-2) which supports the evaluation of performance of Hubble Telescope spacecraft batteries and provides alarm diagnosis and action advice. NICBES-2 provides a reasoning system along with a battery domain knowledge base to achieve this battery health management function. An effort is summarized which was used to modify NICBES-2 to accommodate Nickel Hydrogen (NiH2) battery environment now in MSFC testbed. The NICBES-2 is implemented on a Sun Microsystem and is written in SunOS C and Quintus Prolog. The system now operates in a multitasking environment. NICBES-2 spawns three processes: serial port process (SPP); data handler process (DHP); and the expert system process (ESP) in order to process the telemetry data and provide the status and action advice. NICBES-2 performs orbit data gathering, data evaluation, alarm diagnosis and action advice and status and history display functions. The adaptation of NICBES-2 to work with NiH2 battery environment required modification to all of the three component processes.

  14. Percolation in a kinetic opinion exchange model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chandra, Anjan Kumar

    2012-02-01

    We study the percolation transition of the geometrical clusters in the square-lattice LCCC model [a kinetic opinion exchange model introduced by Lallouache, Chakrabarti, Chakraborti, and Chakrabarti, Phys. Rev. EPLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.82.056112 82, 056112 (2010)] with the change in conviction and influencing parameter. The cluster is comprised of the adjacent sites having an opinion value greater than or equal to a prefixed threshold value of opinion (Ω). The transition point is different from that obtained for the transition of the order parameter (average opinion value) found by Lallouache Although the transition point varies with the change in the threshold value of the opinion, the critical exponents for the percolation transition obtained from the data collapses of the maximum cluster size, the cluster size distribution, and the Binder cumulant remain the same. The exponents are also independent of the values of conviction and influencing parameters, indicating the robustness of this transition. The exponents do not match any other known percolation exponents (e.g., the static Ising, dynamic Ising, and standard percolation). This means that the LCCC model belongs to a separate universality class.

  15. Information Filtering Based on Users' Negative Opinions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Qiang; Li, Yang; Liu, Jian-Guo

    2013-05-01

    The process of heat conduction (HC) has recently found application in the information filtering [Zhang et al., Phys. Rev. Lett.99, 154301 (2007)], which is of high diversity but low accuracy. The classical HC model predicts users' potential interested objects based on their interesting objects regardless to the negative opinions. In terms of the users' rating scores, we present an improved user-based HC (UHC) information model by taking into account users' positive and negative opinions. Firstly, the objects rated by users are divided into positive and negative categories, then the predicted interesting and dislike object lists are generated by the UHC model. Finally, the recommendation lists are constructed by filtering out the dislike objects from the interesting lists. By implementing the new model based on nine similarity measures, the experimental results for MovieLens and Netflix datasets show that the new model considering negative opinions could greatly enhance the accuracy, measured by the average ranking score, from 0.049 to 0.036 for Netflix and from 0.1025 to 0.0570 for Movielens dataset, reduced by 26.53% and 44.39%, respectively. Since users prefer to give positive ratings rather than negative ones, the negative opinions contain much more information than the positive ones, the negative opinions, therefore, are very important for understanding users' online collective behaviors and improving the performance of HC model.

  16. Health care practitioners’ opinions about traditional healing

    PubMed Central

    Mokgobi, M.G.

    2015-01-01

    The World Health Organisation (WHO) has been encouraging governments to assume an active role in recruiting traditional healers to be part of primary health care. However, studies in many parts of the world have reported mixed results regarding health care practitioners’ opinions of traditional healing. This study aimed to investigate South African-based western-trained health care practitioners’ opinions about traditional African healing. Three hundred and nineteen health care practitioners participated in this study. Participants were conveniently sampled from state hospitals and clinics in two provinces in South Africa, namely Limpopo and Gauteng. The study used the Opinions of Traditional Healing Questionnaire for data collection. Results of the Kruskal-Wallis Test revealed a significant difference in opinions of traditional healing across the four categories of health care practitioners [Psychiatrists (n = 25), Physicians (n = 37), General nurses (n = 168) and Psychiatric nurses (n = 89)], X2 (3, n = 319) = 9.45, p = 0.024. The results revealed that health care practitioners working with psychiatric conditions had more positive opinions than general physicians and general nurses. By implication, if South Africa were to investigate the integration of traditional healers into primary health care, as the WHO proposes, psychiatric services and institutions would be the first logical contact for optimal integration. PMID:26568985

  17. Species identification by experts and non-experts: comparing images from field guides

    PubMed Central

    Austen, G. E.; Bindemann, M.; Griffiths, R. A.; Roberts, D. L.

    2016-01-01

    Accurate species identification is fundamental when recording ecological data. However, the ability to correctly identify organisms visually is rarely questioned. We investigated how experts and non-experts compared in the identification of bumblebees, a group of insects of considerable conservation concern. Experts and non-experts were asked whether two concurrent bumblebee images depicted the same or two different species. Overall accuracy was below 60% and comparable for experts and non-experts. However, experts were more consistent in their answers when the same images were repeated, and more cautious in committing to a definitive answer. Our findings demonstrate the difficulty of correctly identifying bumblebees using images from field guides. Such error rates need to be accounted for when interpreting species data, whether or not they have been collected by experts. We suggest that investigation of how experts and non-experts make observations should be incorporated into study design, and could be used to improve training in species identification. PMID:27644140

  18. Species identification by experts and non-experts: comparing images from field guides.

    PubMed

    Austen, G E; Bindemann, M; Griffiths, R A; Roberts, D L

    2016-01-01

    Accurate species identification is fundamental when recording ecological data. However, the ability to correctly identify organisms visually is rarely questioned. We investigated how experts and non-experts compared in the identification of bumblebees, a group of insects of considerable conservation concern. Experts and non-experts were asked whether two concurrent bumblebee images depicted the same or two different species. Overall accuracy was below 60% and comparable for experts and non-experts. However, experts were more consistent in their answers when the same images were repeated, and more cautious in committing to a definitive answer. Our findings demonstrate the difficulty of correctly identifying bumblebees using images from field guides. Such error rates need to be accounted for when interpreting species data, whether or not they have been collected by experts. We suggest that investigation of how experts and non-experts make observations should be incorporated into study design, and could be used to improve training in species identification. PMID:27644140

  19. 'What on earth can this possibly mean'? French reentry courts and experts' risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Herzog-Evans, Martine

    2016-01-01

    Against the backdrop of ten years of punitive criminal justice policies, the number of cases in which risk assessments by psychiatrist experts are mandatory has considerably increased in France. Because of complex and deeply ingrained cultural factors, most experts and academics oppose the use of actuarial or other structured judgement tools, which they assimilate to these policy changes. Parallel to this, the reentry judges in charge of making release and other community sentence decisions have maintained a strong rehabilitative and desistance-focused culture. Drawing on interviews with these judges and experts, the author wanted to assess the judges' expectations of experts' reports, their opinion on actuarial tools, and how they perceived experts and their aptitude to assess risk. The study showed that French reentry judges manage to keep experts' conclusions at bay when they do not fit with their desistance goals, as they can draw upon their own expertise and that of probation services. They do not have much faith in the professionalism and methodology of experts, and would like them to better demonstrate how they reach their conclusions. Moreover, criminogenic needs assessment would be much more useful to them than static risk assessment, which raises the issue as to why this is not the French probation services' role. Reentry judges who never encountered a report which uses a structured tool are influenced by the French ideological debate; those who have read such reports are unanimously in favour of such tools. It thus seems clear that they would like experts to be more strongly guided by science, but are not yet fully aware of what this entails.

  20. Thin slice expert testimony and mock trial deliberations.

    PubMed

    Parrott, Caroline Titcomb; Brodsky, Stanley L; Wilson, Jennifer Kelly

    2015-01-01

    This study examined impressions of expert witness testimony in a not guilty by reason of insanity defense on two outcomes: witness's credibility and verdict. Borrowing in part from the "thin slice" methodology, we assessed outcomes in a 2 (deliberating vs. non-deliberating jurors) × 3 (length of videotaped testimony) between-subjects design. In 30 mock juries, 188 participants viewed the testimony by a forensic psychologist; then half of the juries deliberated. Thinner slices of the testimony were defined by the lower (30s long) and upper (5 min long) temporal bounds in the literature. The third, fuller testimony condition was 10 min long and served as the accuracy marker for the shorter sliced exposures. We aimed to explore potential consequences to jurors relying on impressions of the expert, and his or her opinion, and to test that effect post deliberation. Accounting for deliberation, brief impressions of expert credibility generally exerted a similar influence on credibility to fuller considerations. The essential finding was that a two-way interaction emerged from time slice and deliberation on verdict for jurors in the 30s condition. Overall, predictive accuracy was found in the 5 min slice, yet accuracy was not supported in the predictions based on the shortest slice. Individually-formed impressions are not likely to translate to the verdict ballot post-deliberation. Instead, brief impressions are likely to be heavily influenced by deliberation. Implications for understanding how impression-based testimony evaluations translate from the jury box to the deliberation room are discussed. PMID:26346686