Science.gov

Sample records for agents expert opinion

  1. [Medical expert opinion--credibility, ethics, remuneration].

    PubMed

    Sahar, Avraham

    2007-07-01

    Israeli Law requires a Personal Injury Claim to be supported by an Expert Medical Opinion. Such evidence provides the Court with information essential for the evaluation of scientific material, which is beyond the Court's "judicial knowledge". Incongruent Expert Opinions are not necessarily the result of deceit. Experts are entitled to differences in their respective evaluation and interpretation of data and conflicting medical opinions may be legitimate. The Court's duty and prerogative is to select the "legally correct" opinion. The sole tool at the Court's disposal is precise and logical thinking, aided by principles set by the U.S. Supreme Court for the evaluation of scientific evidence, and adopted by the Israeli Court. The choice of the "correct" opinion centers on it's objectivity. A court-appointed expert is not necessarily an effective solution. Remuneration of the expert by the interested party increases the level of mistrust. The difficult questions concerning the credibility of an opinion arise as the result of insufficient specific expertise of the witness, presentation by a pretender to expertise or plain misrepresentation of data, excerpts of literature etc. Such transgressions are best exposed by the opposing party's expert and attorney. The court has effective means for the control of such behavior. The fraudulent expert witness is neither immune to criminal prosecution, nor to civil suit. IMA's Code of Ethics for Experts is adequate. Expert's fees should be consistent with the effort involved, as well as with the expert's rank and experience. Any linkage of fees to the outcome of the procedure should be prohibited, as well as the intervention of "contractors". Attempts to limit experts' fees, may result in the abstention of the most knowledgeable specialists from such duties. The blame for a false opinion does not lie with the paying party, it is mostly the witness who is responsible. PMID:17803167

  2. Practical problems in aggregating expert opinions

    SciTech Connect

    Booker, J.M.; Picard, R.R.; Meyer, M.A.

    1993-11-01

    Expert opinion is data given by a qualified person in response to a technical question. In these analyses, expert opinion provides information where other data are either sparse or non-existent. Improvements in forecasting result from the advantageous addition of expert opinion to observed data in many areas, such as meteorology and econometrics. More generally, analyses of large, complex systems often involve experts on various components of the system supplying input to a decision process; applications include such wide-ranging areas as nuclear reactor safety, management science, and seismology. For large or complex applications, no single expert may be knowledgeable enough about the entire application. In other problems, decision makers may find it comforting that a consensus or aggregation of opinions is usually better than a single opinion. Many risk and reliability studies require a single estimate for modeling, analysis, reporting, and decision making purposes. For problems with large uncertainties, the strategy of combining as diverse a set of experts as possible hedges against underestimation of that uncertainty. Decision makers are frequently faced with the task of selecting the experts and combining their opinions. However, the aggregation is often the responsibility of an analyst. Whether the decision maker or the analyst does the aggregation, the input for it, such as providing weights for experts or estimating other parameters, is imperfect owing to a lack of omniscience. Aggregation methods for expert opinions have existed for over thirty years; yet many of the difficulties with their use remain unresolved. The bulk of these problem areas are summarized in the sections that follow: sensitivities of results to assumptions, weights for experts, correlation of experts, and handling uncertainties. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the sources of these problems and describe their effects on aggregation.

  3. 14 CFR 13.227 - Expert or opinion witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Expert or opinion witnesses. 13.227 Section... Expert or opinion witnesses. An employee of the agency may not be called as an expert or opinion witness... respondent may not be called by an agency attorney as an expert or opinion witness for the FAA in...

  4. 14 CFR 13.227 - Expert or opinion witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Expert or opinion witnesses. 13.227 Section... Expert or opinion witnesses. An employee of the agency may not be called as an expert or opinion witness... respondent may not be called by an agency attorney as an expert or opinion witness for the FAA in...

  5. [Swan Ganz catheter. Experts opinion].

    PubMed

    Cohen Arazi, Hernán; Nani, Sebastián; Giorgi, Mariano; Guardiani, Fernando; Caturla, Nicolás; Benzadón, Mariano

    2014-01-01

    Investigators have raised doubts as to the safety of the Swan Ganz catheter (SGC). In order to define the point of view of cardiologists in our country, the Argentine Society of Cardiology's Emergency Council organized a meeting to analyze their views in different settings (non-cardiac surgery, cardiac surgery, acute coronary syndromes and heart failure) using the RAND-UCLA appropriateness method. A detailed review with the scientific evidence was sent to the experts in cardiology prior to the meeting in the SAC auditorium where the panellists selected the clinical variables create the specific situations. These hypothetic situations were resent to the panellists at a second stage for their individual evaluation, rating the benefit-to-harm ratio of the procedure on a scale of 1 to 9 (1 meant that the expected harms greatly outweighed the expected benefits, and 9 that the expected benefits greatly outweighed the expected harms, 5 could mean either that the harms and benefits were roughly equal). Two experts analyzed the results, describing the agreement/disagreement ratio. Finally, each indication was classified as "appropriate" "uncertain" or "inappropriate" ,for the procedure in accordance with the panelists' median score: median scores in the 1-3 range were classified as inappropriate, those in the 4-6 range as uncertain, and those in the 7-9 range as appropriate. We observed high disagreement rates in SGC indications between cardiologists. However, the panelists were in favor of SGC use when situations included shock and myocardial dysfunction, especially in the presence of organic dysfunction. There were some situations when panelists considered SGC not useful, in patients without organ failure. PMID:25188663

  6. 42 CFR 1008.33 - Expert opinions from outside sources.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Expert opinions from outside sources. 1008.33... SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Advisory Opinion Fees § 1008.33 Expert opinions from... necessary to respond to the advisory opinion request. For example, the OIG may require the use...

  7. 42 CFR 1008.33 - Expert opinions from outside sources.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Expert opinions from outside sources. 1008.33... SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Advisory Opinion Fees § 1008.33 Expert opinions from... necessary to respond to the advisory opinion request. For example, the OIG may require the use...

  8. 42 CFR 1008.33 - Expert opinions from outside sources.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Expert opinions from outside sources. 1008.33... SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Advisory Opinion Fees § 1008.33 Expert opinions from... necessary to respond to the advisory opinion request. For example, the OIG may require the use...

  9. 42 CFR 1008.33 - Expert opinions from outside sources.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Expert opinions from outside sources. 1008.33... SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Advisory Opinion Fees § 1008.33 Expert opinions from... necessary to respond to the advisory opinion request. For example, the OIG may require the use...

  10. 42 CFR 1008.33 - Expert opinions from outside sources.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Expert opinions from outside sources. 1008.33... SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Advisory Opinion Fees § 1008.33 Expert opinions from... necessary to respond to the advisory opinion request. For example, the OIG may require the use...

  11. 38 CFR 14.808 - Expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Expert or opinion... Production of Department Records in Legal Proceedings § 14.808 Expert or opinion testimony. (a) VA personnel shall not provide, with or without compensation, opinion or expert testimony in any legal...

  12. 49 CFR 1503.645 - Expert or opinion witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 9 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Expert or opinion witnesses. 1503.645 Section 1503... PROCEDURES Rules of Practice in TSA Civil Penalty Actions § 1503.645 Expert or opinion witnesses. An employee of the agency may not be called as an expert or opinion witness, for any party other than TSA, in...

  13. 38 CFR 14.808 - Expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Expert or opinion... Production of Department Records in Legal Proceedings § 14.808 Expert or opinion testimony. (a) VA personnel shall not provide, with or without compensation, opinion or expert testimony in any legal...

  14. 37 CFR 104.23 - Expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Expert or opinion testimony... Proceedings § 104.23 Expert or opinion testimony. (a)(1) If the General Counsel authorizes an employee to give... opinion testimony upon the requester showing, pursuant to § 104.3 of this part, that...

  15. 37 CFR 104.23 - Expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Expert or opinion testimony..., DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ADMINISTRATION LEGAL PROCESSES Employee Testimony and Production of Documents in Legal Proceedings § 104.23 Expert or opinion testimony. (a)(1) If the General Counsel authorizes an employee to...

  16. 37 CFR 104.23 - Expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Expert or opinion testimony... Proceedings § 104.23 Expert or opinion testimony. (a)(1) If the General Counsel authorizes an employee to give... be limited to facts within the personal knowledge of the employee. Employees, with or...

  17. [Position paper "Chemosensory testing for expert opinion in smell disorders"].

    PubMed

    Stuck, B A; Beule, A; Damm, M; Gudziol, H; Hüttenbrink, K-B; Landis, B N; Renner, B; Sommer, J U; Uecker, F C; Vent, J; Hummel, T

    2014-05-01

    Providing expert opinion in the context of smell disorders is often challenging, not only with regard to general aspects of providing an expert opinion but particularly with regard to chemosensory testing. Currently there is no consensus which chemosensory test should be selected and how they should be executed. This positions paper from Committee on Olfaction and Gustation of the German Society of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery aims to give concrete recommendations for chemosensory testing for providing expert opinion for smell disorders with regard to the selection and execution of these test. PMID:24782205

  18. [Cardinal errors in expert opinions for the statutory accident insurance].

    PubMed

    Ludolph, E

    2015-11-01

    Expert opinions are subject to restrictions and must abide by the rules laid down by the legal system, much more so than therapies. Cardinal errors in expert opinions for the statutory accident insurance (GUV) are sometimes mistakes which can be found in all forms of expert opinions but in some cases where special questions of social law and the statutory accident insurance are concerned. The first group of mistakes are the differences between the requirements of an expert and a therapist with respect to the certainty of expert opinions, the responsibility of the commissioning authority alone for the non-medical components of an expert opinion, the generally valid principle of only giving opinions on areas of proven expertise and the extremely important aspect of personal responsibility. The second group of mistakes involve specific questions for the statutory accident insurance, such as the principles of causality, the rules of evidence, the estimation of the consequences of an accident with respect to reduction in earning capacity (MdE) and the significance of pre-existing damage. PMID:26446721

  19. 42 CFR 411.377 - Expert opinions from outside sources.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 2 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Expert opinions from outside sources. 411.377 Section 411.377 Public Health CENTERS FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN... Relationships Between Physicians and Entities Furnishing Designated Health Services § 411.377 Expert...

  20. 42 CFR 411.377 - Expert opinions from outside sources.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 2 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Expert opinions from outside sources. 411.377 Section 411.377 Public Health CENTERS FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN... Relationships Between Physicians and Entities Furnishing Designated Health Services § 411.377 Expert...

  1. 42 CFR 411.377 - Expert opinions from outside sources.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Expert opinions from outside sources. 411.377 Section 411.377 Public Health CENTERS FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN... Relationships Between Physicians and Entities Furnishing Designated Health Services § 411.377 Expert...

  2. 42 CFR 411.377 - Expert opinions from outside sources.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 2 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Expert opinions from outside sources. 411.377 Section 411.377 Public Health CENTERS FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN... Relationships Between Physicians and Entities Furnishing Designated Health Services § 411.377 Expert...

  3. 42 CFR 411.377 - Expert opinions from outside sources.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 2 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Expert opinions from outside sources. 411.377 Section 411.377 Public Health CENTERS FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN... Relationships Between Physicians and Entities Furnishing Designated Health Services § 411.377 Expert...

  4. Graphic Novels in Libraries: An Expert's Opinion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Katy

    2004-01-01

    Barbara Gordon a librarian and computer expert from Gotham city is a genius level intellect and photographic memory expert at research and analysis. According to her, graphic novels and comics are wildly appealing to readers of all ages and intensely popular with adolescents.

  5. Ethical Issues in Expert Opinions and Testimony.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weed, Roger O.

    2000-01-01

    This article provides an overview of ethical issues in private for-profit practice, with particular focus on expert testimony, using examples from a sample of claims filed with the National Association of Rehabilitation Professionals in the Private Sector and malpractice insurance companies. Complaints most frequently involve issues related to…

  6. ACOG Committee Opinion No. 374: Expert testimony.

    PubMed

    2007-08-01

    It is the duty of obstetricians and gynecologists who testify as expert witnesses on behalf of defendants, the government, or plaintiffs to do so solely in accordance with their judgment on the merits of the case. Obstetrician-gynecologists must limit testimony to their sphere of medical expertise and must be prepared adequately. They must make a clear distinction between medical malpractice and medical maloccurrence. The acceptance of fees that are greatly disproportionate to those customary for professional services can be construed as influencing testimony given by the witness, and it is unethical to accept compensation that is contingent on the outcome of litigation. PMID:17666622

  7. 38 CFR 14.808 - Expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... witness of a request for opinion or expert testimony concerning official VA information, subjects or... testimony. 14.808 Section 14.808 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS LEGAL SERVICES, GENERAL COUNSEL, AND MISCELLANEOUS CLAIMS Testimony of Department Personnel...

  8. 14 CFR 13.227 - Expert or opinion witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Expert or opinion witnesses. 13.227 Section 13.227 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES INVESTIGATIVE AND ENFORCEMENT PROCEDURES Rules of Practice in FAA Civil Penalty Actions §...

  9. [Quality of anesthesiological expert opinion in medical claims cases].

    PubMed

    Hachenberg, T; Neu, J; Werner, S; Wiedemann, D; Schaffartzik, W

    2012-06-01

    Expert opinions have an important place for expert testimony in medical disputes. The report should contain a summary about facts and causality between the damage and the medical treatment in question as well as describe the current medical standard. The fulfillment of scientific criteria was investigated in 179 anesthesiological expert opinions from 150 arbitration cases. Anesthesiological expert reports (2005-2007) of the Arbitration Board of the North German Medical Associations were analyzed in terms of structure, general form of assessment and scientific substantiation of statements. Patient damage was confirmed in 76%, treatment failure in 29% and negligent malpractice in 17% of the reports. In 78% of the reports the facts were presented correctly and in 64% the question was answered whether the incident would have occurred even during adequate and professional action. Conclusive statements about the causality between the damage and the medical treatment in question were available only in 60% of the reports. The study findings suggest that anesthesia expert reports present a high incidence of non-scientific claims. The development of guidelines for expert witnesses by the medical societies is urgently recommended. PMID:22576994

  10. 15 CFR 15.16 - Legal proceedings between private litigants: Expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... legal proceeding, an employee is asked for expert or opinion testimony regarding official DOC... opinion testimony regarding official DOC information, subjects or activities without the opportunity to... opinion testimony regarding official DOC information, subjects or activities in a legal proceeding...

  11. 29 CFR 18.705 - Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion. 18... Testimony § 18.705 Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion. The expert may testify in terms of opinion or inference and give reasons therefor without prior disclosure of the underlying facts or...

  12. 29 CFR 18.705 - Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion. 18... Testimony § 18.705 Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion. The expert may testify in terms of opinion or inference and give reasons therefor without prior disclosure of the underlying facts or...

  13. 29 CFR 18.705 - Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2014-07-01 2013-07-01 true Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion. 18... Testimony § 18.705 Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion. The expert may testify in terms of opinion or inference and give reasons therefor without prior disclosure of the underlying facts or...

  14. 29 CFR 18.705 - Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion. 18... Testimony § 18.705 Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion. The expert may testify in terms of opinion or inference and give reasons therefor without prior disclosure of the underlying facts or...

  15. 29 CFR 18.705 - Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion. 18... Testimony § 18.705 Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion. The expert may testify in terms of opinion or inference and give reasons therefor without prior disclosure of the underlying facts or...

  16. 29 CFR 18.703 - Bases of opinion testimony by experts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Bases of opinion testimony by experts. 18.703 Section 18.703 Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE FOR ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS BEFORE THE OFFICE OF ADMINISTRATIVE LAW JUDGES Rules of Evidence Opinions and Expert Testimony § 18.703 Bases of opinion testimony by experts....

  17. 29 CFR 18.703 - Bases of opinion testimony by experts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Bases of opinion testimony by experts. 18.703 Section 18.703 Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE FOR ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS BEFORE THE OFFICE OF ADMINISTRATIVE LAW JUDGES Rules of Evidence Opinions and Expert Testimony § 18.703 Bases of opinion testimony by experts....

  18. Expert opinion: Responsive polymer nanoparticles in cancer therapy.

    PubMed

    Liechty, William B; Peppas, Nicholas A

    2012-02-01

    Polymeric nanoparticles are emerging as an attractive treatment options for cancer due to their favorable size distribution, drug carrying capacity, and tunable properties. In particular, intelligent nanoparticles that respond to biological cues are of interest because of their ability to provide controlled release at a specific site. Tumor sites display abnormal pH profiles and pathophysiology that can be exploited to provide localized release. In this expert opinion, we discuss passive and active targeting of nanoparticles and several classes of pH-responsive nanoparticles. PMID:21888972

  19. Expert Opinion: Responsive Polymer Nanoparticles in Cancer Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Liechty, William B.; Peppas, Nicholas A.

    2011-01-01

    Polymeric nanoparticles are emerging as an attractive treatment options for cancer due to their favorable size distribution, drug carrying capacity, and tunable properties. In particular, intelligent nanoparticles that respond to biological cues are of interest because of their ability to provide controlled release at a specific site. Tumor sites display abnormal pH profiles and pathophysiology that can be exploited to provide localized release. In this expert opinion, we discuss passive and active targeting of nanoparticles and several classes of pH-responsive nanoparticles. PMID:21888972

  20. Expert opinions on success factors for upper-limb prostheses.

    PubMed

    Schultz, Aimee E; Baade, Susan P; Kuiken, Todd A

    2007-01-01

    The goal of this study was to gather the opinions of prosthetics experts on the most important factors for the successful use of upper-limb (UL) prostheses, compare them with those of prosthesis users, and ultimately direct research efforts in this field. UL prosthetics experts were asked to compare the importance of the comfort, function, and cosmesis of a prosthetic device for a transhumeral amputee. Categories were subdivided into weight, socket-interface comfort, power, agility, color, and shape. The majority of those who responded viewed comfort as the most important factor for a unilateral amputee and considered socket-interface comfort to be more important than weight. Function was considered to be the most important factor for a bilateral amputee, with agility considered more important than power. Cosmesis was consistently reported as being less important than comfort and function, and shape was considered more important than color. PMID:18247245

  1. 15 CFR 15.16 - Legal proceedings between private litigants: Expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... litigants: Expert or opinion testimony. 15.16 Section 15.16 Commerce and Foreign Trade Office of the... Proceedings § 15.16 Legal proceedings between private litigants: Expert or opinion testimony. In addition to... within the personal knowledge of the Department employee. Employees, with or without compensation,...

  2. Current and Emerging Ethical Issues in Counseling: A Delphi Study of Expert Opinions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herlihy, Barbara; Dufrene, Roxane L.

    2011-01-01

    A Delphi study was conducted to ascertain the opinions of panel experts regarding the most important current and emerging ethical issues facing the counseling profession. Expert opinions on ethical issues in counselor preparation also were sought. Eighteen panelists responded to 3 rounds of data collection interspersed with feedback. Themes that…

  3. Melasma and Post Inflammatory Hyperpigmentation: Management Update and Expert Opinion.

    PubMed

    Sofen, B; Prado, G; Emer, J

    2016-01-01

    Dyschromia is a leading cause for cosmetic consultation, especially in those with diverse skin types (mixture of ethnicities) and with the rise of non-core and untrained physicians performing cosmetic procedures. Melasma and post-inflammatory hyperpigmentation (PIH) account for the majority of cases and are characterized by pigmented macules and patches distributed symmetrically in sun-exposed areas of the forehead, cheeks, and chin in melasma, and irregularly in areas of inflammation or an inciting traumatic event with PIH. Treatment is challenging and focused on a variety of mechanisms to stop, hinder, and/or prevent steps in the pigment production (melanocytic hyperactivity) process, breaking down deposited pigment for internal removal or external release, exfoliating cells to enhance turnover, and decreasing inflammation. Topical lightening therapy in combination with sun protection is essential for potential improvement. The most commonly prescribed and researched topical lightening agents are hydroquinone (HQ), azelaic acid (AzA), and retinoids - although only HQ and a triple combination cream (Tri-Luma®; fluocinolone acetonide 0.01%, HQ 4%, tretinoin 0.05%) are US FDA-approved for "bleaching of hyperpigmented skin" (HQ) and "melasma" (Tri-Luma®). Numerous non-HQ brightening/lightening agents, including antioxidant and botanical cosmeceuticals, have recently flooded the market with improvements that claim less irritant potential, as well as avoiding the stigmata associated with HQ agents such as carcinogenesis and cutaneous ochronosis. Combining topical therapy with procedures such as chemical peels, intense pulsed light (IPL), fractional non-ablative lasers or radiofrequency, pigment lasers (microsecond, picosecond, Q-switched), and microneedling, enhances results. With proper treatment, melasma can be controlled, improved, and maintained; alternatively, PIH can be cured in most cases. Herein, we review treatments for both conditions and provide an opinion

  4. Evolution of Extremist Opinions in a Population of Interacting Agents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boccara, Nino

    We have studied various spatial models of temporal evolution of opinions of a population of agents, located in a finite closed space, in which, at each time step, a given agent adopts, subject to a probability condition, a new opinion which depends upon the opinions of some of its neighbors. Moreover, at each time step each agent moves to a random neighboring location distributed according to a normal distribution with zero mean and a small standard deviation. The purpose of the paper is to find which types of interactions reduce the number of extremists.

  5. [Evaluation of medical and psychological expert opinions in asylum and residence legislation].

    PubMed

    Hofmann, Mareike; Hagemeier, Ina; Altenhain, Karsten; Kruse, Johannes

    2014-01-01

    The quality of medical and psychological certificates and expert opinions in asylum and residence legislation was analyzed using judicial requirements as well as standards of the German Bundesärztekammer (SBPM). A sample of 53 cases of asylum seekers including 86 medical certificates and 15 expert opinions was evaluated qualitative and quantitative. The quality varies strongly from exemplary to insufficient. Predominantly, the medical certificates did not comply with judicial requirements. Two thirds of the expert opinions met the standards formulated by SBPM. Experts should write medical/psychological opinions being familiar with both traumatized individuals and refugees. The minimum requirements and standards should be better communicated to involved medical and psychological practitioners. PMID:23784797

  6. Testing the Stability of Experts' Opinions between Successive Rounds of Delphi Studies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Yu Nu

    The Delphi method is a means of structuring group communication process so that a group of experts can gather information or forecast future problems effectively. A primary objective of a Delphi study is to obtain consensual and consistent opinions from a group of experts in two or more successive rounds on a given research subject. Consensus and…

  7. The reliability of experts' opinions in constructing a composite environmental index: the case of ESI 2005.

    PubMed

    Giannetti, B F; Bonilla, S H; Silva, C C; Almeida, C M V B

    2009-06-01

    The complexity of the environment demands a well-constructed composite environmental index (CEI) to provide a useful tool to draw attention to environmental conditions and trends for policy purposes. Among the common difficulties in constructing a proper CEI are uncertainties due to the selection of the most representative underlying variables or indicators. A degree of uncertainty accompanies experts' judgments, and to deal with vague, subjective or inconsistent information, logic other than classic is required. This study analyzes a procedure that uses different experts' opinions in constructing a CEI, with the use of paraconsistent annotated logic. For this, a sensitivity analysis of the Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI 2005) was used as an example to assess the reliability of experts' opinions. The uncertainty due to the disagreement in experts' opinions clearly indicates that the forms we presently use to measure and monitor the actual environment are insufficient, that is, there is a lack of a "science of sustainability". PMID:19285781

  8. [Medical expert assessment in civil and criminal law--legal evaluation of medical expert opinion].

    PubMed

    Schlund, G H

    1996-11-01

    The constitutional position of the judge and the medical expert witness during a lawsuit is explained. From this, the demands on a judicial expert witness for the preparation of his expert assessment are derived and the judge's function in the appointment of the expert witness is explained. Additionally, criteria, duties, and rules are worked out, which should be followed by the judge during assessment of the medical expert testimony. PMID:9064930

  9. Comparing Powerpoint Experts' and University Students' Opinions about Powerpoint Presentations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mackiewicz, Jo

    2008-01-01

    Technical communication instructors want to help students, as well as professionals, design effective PowerPoint presentations. Toward this end, I compare the advice of academic and industry experts about effective PowerPoint presentation design to survey responses from university students about slide text, visual elements, animations, and other…

  10. Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

  11. [Traffic medicine expert opinions in otorhinolaryngology: current aspects].

    PubMed

    Waldfahrer, F; Iro, H; von Brevern, M; Fetter, M; Hamann, K-F; Holube, I; Lenarz, T; Lesinski-Schiedat, A; Stoll, W; von Stuckradt-Barre, S; Westhofen, M

    2010-02-01

    According to German law granting of driving licenses depends on the proof of an adequate driving capability. The corresponding guidelines are at present in the process of being revised. At the moment bilateral deafness and high-grade hearing loss (> or = 60% in pure tone audiometry) are not exclusion criteria for driving licenses grades A, B and C, while driving licenses grade D and licenses for public transport are generally excluded. In the forthcoming revised edition of the guidelines it has been suggested that the latter group will also not be excluded. The regulations concerning dizziness are wide-sweeping at the moment as no driving license will be granted if dizziness is present but will be more specific in the next issue. In particular a division will be made between single axle and two axle vehicles. An expert assessment about driving suitability can only be made by a certified specialist with qualifications in traffic medicine. PMID:20111915

  12. A Survey of Expert Opinion Regarding Rotator Cuff Repair.

    PubMed

    Acevedo, Daniel C; Paxton, E Scott; Williams, Gerald R; Abboud, Joseph A

    2014-07-16

    Many patients with rotator cuff tears have questions for their surgeons regarding the surgical procedure, perioperative management, restrictions, therapy, and ability to work after a rotator cuff repair. The purpose of our study was to determine common clinical practices among experts regarding rotator cuff repair and to assist them in counseling patients. We surveyed 372 members of the American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons (ASES) and the Association of Clinical Elbow and Shoulder Surgeons (ACESS); 111 members (29.8%) completed all or part of the survey, and 92.8% of the respondents answered every question. A consensus response (>50% agreement) was achieved on 49% (24 of 49) of the questions. Variability in responses likely reflects the fact that clinical practices have evolved over time based on clinical experience. PMID:25031385

  13. Climate Change to the Year 2000: A Survey of Expert Opinion.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Institute for the Future, Menlo Park, CA.

    This survey of expert opinion was conducted by the National Defense University, Washington, D.C. to quantify the likelihood of significant changes in climate and their practical consequences. The major objectives of the study are embodied in four tasks. This publication presents the results of the first task only: the definition and estimation of…

  14. Classification of Word Levels with Usage Frequency, Expert Opinions and Machine Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sohsah, Gihad N.; Ünal, Muhammed Esad; Güzey, Onur

    2015-01-01

    Educational applications for language teaching can utilize the language levels of words to target proficiency levels of students. This paper and the accompanying data provide a methodology for making educational standard-aligned language-level predictions for all English words. The methodology involves expert opinions on language levels and…

  15. 45 CFR 1201.10 - Prohibition on providing expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Prohibition on providing expert or opinion testimony. 1201.10 Section 1201.10 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) CORPORATION FOR NATIONAL AND COMMUNITY SERVICE PRODUCTION OR DISCLOSURE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION IN RESPONSE TO COURT ORDERS, SUBPOENAS, NOTICES...

  16. Survey of Expert Opinion on Intelligence: Causes of International Differences in Cognitive Ability Tests

    PubMed Central

    Rindermann, Heiner; Becker, David; Coyle, Thomas R.

    2016-01-01

    Following Snyderman and Rothman (1987, 1988), we surveyed expert opinions on the current state of intelligence research. This report examines expert opinions on causes of international differences in student assessment and psychometric IQ test results. Experts were surveyed about the importance of culture, genes, education (quantity and quality), wealth, health, geography, climate, politics, modernization, sampling error, test knowledge, discrimination, test bias, and migration. The importance of these factors was evaluated for diverse countries, regions, and groups including Finland, East Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Europe, the Arabian-Muslim world, Latin America, Israel, Jews in the West, Roma (gypsies), and Muslim immigrants. Education was rated by N = 71 experts as the most important cause of international ability differences. Genes were rated as the second most relevant factor but also had the highest variability in ratings. Culture, health, wealth, modernization, and politics were the next most important factors, whereas other factors such as geography, climate, test bias, and sampling error were less important. The paper concludes with a discussion of limitations of the survey (e.g., response rates and validity of expert opinions). PMID:27047425

  17. Survey of Expert Opinion on Intelligence: Causes of International Differences in Cognitive Ability Tests.

    PubMed

    Rindermann, Heiner; Becker, David; Coyle, Thomas R

    2016-01-01

    Following Snyderman and Rothman (1987, 1988), we surveyed expert opinions on the current state of intelligence research. This report examines expert opinions on causes of international differences in student assessment and psychometric IQ test results. Experts were surveyed about the importance of culture, genes, education (quantity and quality), wealth, health, geography, climate, politics, modernization, sampling error, test knowledge, discrimination, test bias, and migration. The importance of these factors was evaluated for diverse countries, regions, and groups including Finland, East Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Europe, the Arabian-Muslim world, Latin America, Israel, Jews in the West, Roma (gypsies), and Muslim immigrants. Education was rated by N = 71 experts as the most important cause of international ability differences. Genes were rated as the second most relevant factor but also had the highest variability in ratings. Culture, health, wealth, modernization, and politics were the next most important factors, whereas other factors such as geography, climate, test bias, and sampling error were less important. The paper concludes with a discussion of limitations of the survey (e.g., response rates and validity of expert opinions). PMID:27047425

  18. Expert systems for implementing group consensus opinion in complex, weighted decisions

    SciTech Connect

    Carr, K.R.

    1990-01-01

    The development of an expert system for instrumentation and control operations is sometimes particularly difficult because (a) the expert system must implement the consensus opinion of a group of several human experts in all circumstances, (b) there may be 20 or more complex, dynamic, interrelated factors that influence the decision, each of which must be properly considered and weighed, and (c) the decision may involve choosing from several alternative courses of action, rather that a simple yes-no'' choice. These demanding requirements can discourage or, in some cases, prevent altogether the development of expert systems that are seriously needed and would by highly beneficial. However, the integration of a formal decision analysis method into the expert system as described in this paper can smooth the development phase of the expert system and provide high assurance of the success of the project. In virtually every case, regardless of the complexity of the problem, the approach outlined will provide an expert system to function on every decision just as if the human experts had assembled and performed a formal analysis to reach the overall best balanced decision. 6 refs., 8 figs.

  19. Expert Identification of In-Service Training Needs of Field Agents Working in Training and Visit (T&V) Systems of Extension.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alawy, Abdillahi S.; Safrit, R. Dale

    A study used the opinions of 25 recognized experts in international extension education to identify the in-service training needs of field agents working in training and visit (T&V) systems of extension in developing countries. A pilot-tested nine-item interview schedule was used to interview 25 experts with work and/or consultation experience in…

  20. Short-term Forecasting of the Prevalence of Trachoma: Expert Opinion, Statistical Regression, versus Transmission Models

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Fengchen; Porco, Travis C.; Amza, Abdou; Kadri, Boubacar; Nassirou, Baido; West, Sheila K.; Bailey, Robin L.; Keenan, Jeremy D.; Solomon, Anthony W.; Emerson, Paul M.; Gambhir, Manoj; Lietman, Thomas M.

    2015-01-01

    Background Trachoma programs rely on guidelines made in large part using expert opinion of what will happen with and without intervention. Large community-randomized trials offer an opportunity to actually compare forecasting methods in a masked fashion. Methods The Program for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma trials estimated longitudinal prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection from 24 communities treated annually with mass azithromycin. Given antibiotic coverage and biannual assessments from baseline through 30 months, forecasts of the prevalence of infection in each of the 24 communities at 36 months were made by three methods: the sum of 15 experts’ opinion, statistical regression of the square-root-transformed prevalence, and a stochastic hidden Markov model of infection transmission (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible, or SIS model). All forecasters were masked to the 36-month results and to the other forecasts. Forecasts of the 24 communities were scored by the likelihood of the observed results and compared using Wilcoxon’s signed-rank statistic. Findings Regression and SIS hidden Markov models had significantly better likelihood than community expert opinion (p = 0.004 and p = 0.01, respectively). All forecasts scored better when perturbed to decrease Fisher’s information. Each individual expert’s forecast was poorer than the sum of experts. Interpretation Regression and SIS models performed significantly better than expert opinion, although all forecasts were overly confident. Further model refinements may score better, although would need to be tested and compared in new masked studies. Construction of guidelines that rely on forecasting future prevalence could consider use of mathematical and statistical models. PMID:26302380

  1. [Expert's opinion on recommendations for water and other beverages consumption in elderly?].

    PubMed

    Bień, Barbara; Jarosz, Agnieszka; de Latour, Teresa; Mastalerz-Migas, Agnieszka; Marczewski, Krzysztof; Okręglicka, Katarzyna; Ponikowska, Irena; Woy-Wojciechowski, Jerzy; Ziółkowska, Anna

    2014-01-01

    The article encloses definition of water role and its body requirement, review of water balance and management in older persons regarding characteristic of this age group and concomitant disorders. Based on current literature and expert's opinion the recommendations for water consumption were expressed with estimation of insufficient apply and oversupply, evaluation of hydration state, domestic water sources in diet with accent on influence of proper hydration on comfort and good health. PMID:25764788

  2. Can journalistic "false balance" distort public perception of consensus in expert opinion?

    PubMed

    Koehler, Derek J

    2016-03-01

    Media critics have expressed concern that journalistic "false balance" can distort the public's perceptions of what ought to be noncontroversial subjects (e.g., climate change). I report several experiments testing the influence of presenting conflicting comments from 2 experts who disagree on an issue (balance condition) in addition to a complete count of the number of experts on a panel who favor either side. Compared with a control condition, who received only the complete count, participants in the balance condition gave ratings of the perceived agreement among the experts that did not discriminate as clearly between issues with and without strong expert consensus. Participants in the balance condition also perceived less agreement among the experts in general, and were less likely to think that there was enough agreement among experts on the high-consensus issues to guide government policy. Evidently, "false balance" can distort perceptions of expert opinion even when participants would seem to have all the information needed to correct for its influence. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26752513

  3. Remarks on the assessment, representation, aggregation and utilization of expert opinion

    SciTech Connect

    Fine, T.L.

    1980-04-01

    This report considers the relevance of recent ideas in the foundations of probability to the rational use of expert opinion in the design of a nuclear waste repository, and the assessment of its performance. The main probability concepts introduce are those of modal (probably A), comparative (A is at least as probable as B) and interval-valued (the lower probability of A is P(A) and the upper probability of A is P(anti A)) probabilities. We then outline an approach first using comparative probability to model the resuls of binary elicitation of an expert's opinions concerning repository uncertainties and then employing interval-valued probability to represent comparative probability in a computationally convenient form. We further consider the issue of aggregating or amalgamating the responses of several experts, and we emphasize the need to preserve some measure of the disagreements among the experts. The resulting aggregated interval-valued representation of the responses concerning the uncertainties surrounding the performance of a nuclear waste repository design can then be used to numerically assess this performance in a manner parallel to that of utility theory. Utility theory is the basis for statistical decision theory. Our recommendations can only be tentative, and research is recommended to gain some working experience with the results of the proposed decision-making process in the repostory design context.

  4. Factors associated with experts' opinions regarding criminal responsibility in The Netherlands.

    PubMed

    Barendregt, Marko; Muller, Eline; Nijman, Henk; de Beurs, Edwin

    2008-01-01

    In many jurisdictions, offenders need to have freely chosen to commit their crimes in order to be punishable. A mental defect or disorder may be a reason for diminished or total absence of criminal responsibility and may remove culpability. This study aims to provide an empirically based understanding of the factors on which experts base their judgements concerning criminal responsibility. Clinical, demographic and crime related variables, as well as MMPI-2 profiles, were collected from final reports concerning defendants of serious crime submitted to the observation clinic of the Dutch Ministry of Justice for a criminal responsibility assessment. Criminal responsibility was expressed along a five-point scale corresponding to the Dutch legal practice. Results showed that several variables contributed independently to experts' opinions regarding criminal responsibility: diagnosis (Axis I and II), cultural background, type of weapon used in committing the crime, and whether the defendant committed the crime alone or with others. In contract to jurisdictions involving a sane/insane dichotomy, the Dutch five-point scale of criminal responsibility revealed that Axis II personality disorders turned out to be mostly associated with a diminished responsibility. MMPI-2 scores also turned out to have a small contribution to experts' opinions on criminal responsibility, independently of mere diagnostic variables. These results suggest that experts base their judgements not only on the presence or absence of mental disorders, but also on cultural and crime related characteristics, as well as dimensional information about the defendant's personality and symptomatology. PMID:18788082

  5. Expert Opinions on Improving Femicide Data Collection across Europe: A Concept Mapping Study.

    PubMed

    Vives-Cases, Carmen; Goicolea, Isabel; Hernández, Alison; Sanz-Barbero, Belen; Gill, Aisha K; Baldry, Anna Costanza; Schröttle, Monika; Stöckl, Heidi; Stoeckl, Heidi

    2016-01-01

    Femicide, defined as the killings of females by males because they are females, is becoming recognized worldwide as an important ongoing manifestation of gender inequality. Despite its high prevalence or widespread prevalence, only a few countries have specific registries about this issue. This study aims to assemble expert opinion regarding the strategies which might feasibly be employed to promote, develop and implement an integrated and differentiated femicide data collection system in Europe at both the national and international levels. Concept mapping methodology was followed, involving 28 experts from 16 countries in generating strategies, sorting and rating them with respect to relevance and feasibility. The experts involved were all members of the EU-Cost-Action on femicide, which is a scientific network of experts on femicide and violence against women across Europe. As a result, a conceptual map emerged, consisting of 69 strategies organized in 10 clusters, which fit into two domains: "Political action" and "Technical steps". There was consensus among participants regarding the high relevance of strategies to institutionalize national databases and raise public awareness through different stakeholders, while strategies to promote media involvement were identified as the most feasible. Differences in perceived priorities according to the level of human development index of the experts' countries were also observed. PMID:26859885

  6. Expert opinion on landslide susceptibility elicted by probabilistic inversion from scenario rankings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Katy; Dashwood, Claire; Lark, Murray

    2016-04-01

    For many natural hazards the opinion of experts, with experience in assessing susceptibility under different circumstances, is a valuable source of information on which to base risk assessments. This is particularly important where incomplete process understanding, and limited data, limit the scope to predict susceptibility by mechanistic or statistical modelling. The expert has a tacit model of a system, based on their understanding of processes and their field experience. This model may vary in quality, depending on the experience of the expert. There is considerable interest in how one may elicit expert understanding by a process which is transparent and robust, to provide a basis for decision support. One approach is to provide experts with a set of scenarios, and then to ask them to rank small overlapping subsets of these with respect to susceptibility. Methods of probabilistic inversion have been used to compute susceptibility scores for each scenario, implicit in the expert ranking. It is also possible to model these scores as functions of measurable properties of the scenarios. This approach has been used to assess susceptibility of animal populations to invasive diseases, to assess risk to vulnerable marine environments and to assess the risk in hypothetical novel technologies for food production. We will present the results of a study in which a group of geologists with varying degrees of expertise in assessing landslide hazards were asked to rank sets of hypothetical simplified scenarios with respect to land slide susceptibility. We examine the consistency of their rankings and the importance of different properties of the scenarios in the tacit susceptibility model that their rankings implied. Our results suggest that this is a promising approach to the problem of how experts can communicate their tacit model of uncertain systems to those who want to make use of their expertise.

  7. Forecasting the Use of Electronic Health Records: An Expert Opinion Approach

    PubMed Central

    Blavin, Fredric Evan; Buntin, Melinda Beeuwkes

    2013-01-01

    Background To promote the widespread adoption and use of electronic health records (EHRs), in 2011, CMS started making Medicare and Medicaid incentive payments to providers who demonstrate that they are “meaningful users” of certified EHR systems. Data and Methods This paper combines an expert opinion method, a modified Delphi technique, with a technological diffusion framework to create a forecast of the percent of office-based physicians who will become adopters and “meaningful users” of health information technology from 2012 to 2019. The panel consisted of 18 experts from industry, academia, and government who are knowledgeable about the adoption and use of EHRs in office-based settings and are recognized as opinion leaders in their respective professions. Results Overall, the expert panel projected that primary care physicians in large group practices are more likely to achieve the meaningful use of EHRs relative to primary care physicians in small group practices and all other specialists: the group projected that 65 percent of primary care physicians in large group practices, 45 percent of primary care physicians in small group practices, and 44 percent of all other specialists could achieve meaningful use by 2015. In 2019, these projections increase to 80 percent, 65 percent, and 66 percent for these three groups, respectively. Conclusions and Policy Implications The information from this study is especially valuable when there is a lack of data and a high degree of uncertainty in a new policy environment and could help inform and evaluate government programs, such as the Regional Extension Centers (REC), by providing data from leading experts. PMID:24753964

  8. Plus Disease in Retinopathy of Prematurity: Development of Composite Images by Quantification of Expert Opinion

    PubMed Central

    Chiang, Michael F.; Gelman, Rony; Williams, Steven L.; Lee, Joo-Yeon; Casper, Daniel S.; Martinez-Perez, M. Elena; Flynn, John T.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose To demonstrate a methodology for generating composite wide-angle images of plus disease in retinopathy of prematurity (ROP), using quantitative analysis of expert opinions. Methods Thirty-four wide-angle retinal images were independently interpreted by 22 ROP experts as “plus” or “not plus.” All images were processed by the computer-based Retinal Image multiScale Analysis (RISA) system to calculate two parameters: arterial integrated curvature (AIC) and venous diameter (VD). Using a reference standard defined by expert consensus, sensitivity and specificity curves were calculated by varying the diagnostic cutoffs for AIC and VD. From these curves, individual vessels from multiple images were identified with particular diagnostic cutoffs, and were combined into composite wide-angle images using graphics-editing software. Results The values associated with 75% underdiagnosis of true plus disease (i.e., 25% sensitivity cutoff) were AIC 0.061 and VD 4.272, the values associated with 50% underdiagnosis of true plus disease (i.e., a 50% sensitivity cutoff) were AIC 0.049 and VD 4.088, and the values associated with 25% underdiagnosis of true plus disease (i.e., 75% sensitivity cutoff) were AIC 0.042 and VD 3.795. Composite wide-angle images were generated by identifying and combining individual vessels with these characteristics. Conclusions Computer-based image analysis permits quantification of retinal vascular features, and a spectrum of abnormalities is seen in ROP. Selection of appropriate vessels from multiple images can produce composite plus disease images corresponding to expert opinions. This method may be useful for educational purposes, and for development of future disease definitions based on objective, quantitative principles. PMID:18408188

  9. Assessing the Effectiveness of Local Management of Coral Reefs Using Expert Opinion and Spatial Bayesian Modeling.

    PubMed

    Ban, Stephen S; Pressey, Robert L; Graham, Nicholas A J

    2015-01-01

    Multiple stressors are an increasing concern in the management and conservation of ecosystems, and have been identified as a key gap in research. Coral reefs are one example of an ecosystem where management of local stressors may be a way of mitigating or delaying the effects of climate change. Predicting how multiple stressors interact, particularly in a spatially explicit fashion, is a difficult challenge. Here we use a combination of an expert-elicited Bayesian network (BN) and spatial environmental data to examine how hypothetical scenarios of climate change and local management would result in different outcomes for coral reefs on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Parameterizing our BN using the mean responses from our experts resulted in predictions of limited efficacy of local management in combating the effects of climate change. However, there was considerable variability in expert responses and uncertainty was high. Many reefs within the central GBR appear to be at risk of further decline based on the pessimistic opinions of our expert pool. Further parameterization of the model as more data and knowledge become available could improve predictive power. Our approach serves as a starting point for subsequent work that can fine-tune parameters and explore uncertainties in predictions of responses to management. PMID:26284372

  10. Expert Opinions on Improving Femicide Data Collection across Europe: A Concept Mapping Study

    PubMed Central

    Vives-Cases, Carmen; Goicolea, Isabel; Hernández, Alison; Sanz-Barbero, Belen; Gill, Aisha K.; Baldry, Anna Costanza; Schröttle, Monika; Stoeckl, Heidi

    2016-01-01

    Femicide, defined as the killings of females by males because they are females, is becoming recognized worldwide as an important ongoing manifestation of gender inequality. Despite its high prevalence or widespread prevalence, only a few countries have specific registries about this issue. This study aims to assemble expert opinion regarding the strategies which might feasibly be employed to promote, develop and implement an integrated and differentiated femicide data collection system in Europe at both the national and international levels. Concept mapping methodology was followed, involving 28 experts from 16 countries in generating strategies, sorting and rating them with respect to relevance and feasibility. The experts involved were all members of the EU-Cost-Action on femicide, which is a scientific network of experts on femicide and violence against women across Europe. As a result, a conceptual map emerged, consisting of 69 strategies organized in 10 clusters, which fit into two domains: “Political action” and “Technical steps”. There was consensus among participants regarding the high relevance of strategies to institutionalize national databases and raise public awareness through different stakeholders, while strategies to promote media involvement were identified as the most feasible. Differences in perceived priorities according to the level of human development index of the experts’ countries were also observed. PMID:26859885

  11. Assessing the Effectiveness of Local Management of Coral Reefs Using Expert Opinion and Spatial Bayesian Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Ban, Stephen S.

    2015-01-01

    Multiple stressors are an increasing concern in the management and conservation of ecosystems, and have been identified as a key gap in research. Coral reefs are one example of an ecosystem where management of local stressors may be a way of mitigating or delaying the effects of climate change. Predicting how multiple stressors interact, particularly in a spatially explicit fashion, is a difficult challenge. Here we use a combination of an expert-elicited Bayesian network (BN) and spatial environmental data to examine how hypothetical scenarios of climate change and local management would result in different outcomes for coral reefs on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Parameterizing our BN using the mean responses from our experts resulted in predictions of limited efficacy of local management in combating the effects of climate change. However, there was considerable variability in expert responses and uncertainty was high. Many reefs within the central GBR appear to be at risk of further decline based on the pessimistic opinions of our expert pool. Further parameterization of the model as more data and knowledge become available could improve predictive power. Our approach serves as a starting point for subsequent work that can fine-tune parameters and explore uncertainties in predictions of responses to management. PMID:26284372

  12. Comparison of AC drives for electric vehicles -- A report on experts` opinion survey

    SciTech Connect

    Chang, L.

    1994-08-01

    It is recognized that wide applications of electric vehicles (EVs) will bring tremendous social, economical and ecological benefits. With the growing interests in electric vehicles, much effort is demanded for the development of efficient, reliable and economical AC drives` for EV propulsion purpose. Both induction motor (IM) drives and permanent magnet brushless DC motor (BDCM) drives have been applied to EVs. Switched reluctance motor (SRM) drives have been proposed as an alternative for EV propulsion. In order to assess the suitability of IM, BDCM and SRM drives for EV applications and to provide a technical support for the development and selection of future EV propulsion systems, the existing EV AC propulsion drives were compared, and a survey of experts` opinions was conducted. Comparison of the three AC drives was made on a relative and a quantitative basis using the survey questionnaires. According to the majority of the experts, induction motor drives are best suited for EV propulsion purpose, due to their low cost, high reliability, high speed, established converter and manufacturing technology, low torque ripple/noise and absence of position sensors. BDCM drives feature compactness, low weight and high efficiency and therefore provide an alternative for EV propulsion. The experts regard insulated gate bipolar transistors (IGBTs) as the most suited power semiconductor devices for AC drive converters at the present stage. 7 refs.

  13. Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors

    PubMed Central

    Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M.T.E.

    2015-01-01

    There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample’s prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these. PMID:26295247

  14. Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors.

    PubMed

    Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M T E

    2015-08-01

    There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample's prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these. PMID:26295247

  15. International expert opinion on the management of infection caused by azole-resistant Aspergillus fumigatus.

    PubMed

    Verweij, Paul E; Ananda-Rajah, Michelle; Andes, David; Arendrup, Maiken C; Brüggemann, Roger J; Chowdhary, Anuradha; Cornely, Oliver A; Denning, David W; Groll, Andreas H; Izumikawa, Koichi; Kullberg, Bart Jan; Lagrou, Katrien; Maertens, Johan; Meis, Jacques F; Newton, Pippa; Page, Iain; Seyedmousavi, Seyedmojtaba; Sheppard, Donald C; Viscoli, Claudio; Warris, Adilia; Donnelly, J Peter

    2015-01-01

    An international expert panel was convened to deliberate the management of azole-resistant aspergillosis. In culture-positive cases, in vitro susceptibility testing should always be performed if antifungal therapy is intended. Different patterns of resistance are seen, with multi-azole and pan-azole resistance more common than resistance to a single triazole. In confirmed invasive pulmonary aspergillosis due to an azole-resistant Aspergillus, the experts recommended a switch from voriconazole to liposomal amphotericin B (L-AmB; Ambisome(®)). In regions with environmental resistance rates of ≥10%, a voriconazole-echinocandin combination or L-AmB were favoured as initial therapy. All experts recommended L-AmB as core therapy for central nervous system aspergillosis suspected to be due to an azole-resistant Aspergillus, and considered the addition of a second agent with the majority favouring flucytosine. Intravenous therapy with either micafungin or L-AmB given as either intermittent or continuous therapy was recommended for chronic pulmonary aspergillosis due to a pan-azole-resistant Aspergillus. Local and national surveillance with identification of clinical and environmental resistance patterns, rapid diagnostics, better quality clinical outcome data, and a greater understanding of the factors driving or minimising environmental resistance are areas where research is urgently needed, as well as the development of new oral agents outside the azole drug class. PMID:26282594

  16. Public opinions about human enhancement can enhance the expert-only debate: A review study.

    PubMed

    Dijkstra, Anne M; Schuijff, Mirjam

    2016-07-01

    Human enhancement, the non-medical use of biomedical technologies to improve the human body or performance beyond their 'natural' limitations, is a growing trend. At the same time, the use of these technologies has societal consequences. In societal debates about human enhancement, however, it is mainly the voices of experts that are being heard, and little is known about the public's understanding of human enhancement. The views of the public can give valuable insights, and can, in turn, supplement experts' voices in political decision-making as has been argued before for other emerging technologies. This study presents a systematic literature review of current public perceptions and attitudes towards technologies for human enhancement. Results show that the public's view has not been assessed often. Studies originate mainly from western-oriented countries and cover a broad range of enhancement technologies. In the studies, the majority of respondents hold moderate to strong negative attitudes towards enhancement technologies for non-medical applications, although the type of technology influences these opinions. The study provides an overview of what is known about citizens' attitudes towards technologies for human enhancement. PMID:25605749

  17. Biology Teacher and Expert Opinions about Computer Assisted Biology Instruction Materials: A Software Entitled Nucleic Acids and Protein Synthesis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hasenekoglu, Ismet; Timucin, Melih

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study is to collect and evaluate opinions of CAI experts and biology teachers about a high school level Computer Assisted Biology Instruction Material presenting computer-made modelling and simulations. It is a case study. A material covering "Nucleic Acids and Protein Synthesis" topic was developed as the "case". The goal of the…

  18. Studies of Opinion Stability for Small Dynamic Networks with Opportunistic Agents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    There are numerous examples of societies with extremely stable mix of contrasting opinions. We argue that this stability is a result of an interplay between society network topology adjustment and opinion changing processes. To support this position we present a computer model of opinion formation based on some novel assumptions, designed to bring the model closer to social reality. In our model, the agents, in addition to changing their opinions due to influence of the rest of society and external propaganda, have the ability to modify their social network, forming links with agents sharing the same opinions and cutting the links with those they disagree with. To improve the model further we divide the agents into "fanatics" and "opportunists," depending on how easy it is to change their opinions. The simulations show significant differences compared to traditional models, where network links are static. In particular, for the dynamical model where inter-agent links are adjustable, the final network structure and opinion distribution is shown to resemble real world observations, such as social structures and persistence of minority groups even when most of the society is against them and the propaganda is strong.

  19. Expert opinions of the first italian consensus conference on the management of malignant pleural mesothelioma.

    PubMed

    Pinto, Carmine; Ardizzoni, Andrea; Betta, Pier Giacomo; Facciolo, Francesco; Tassi, Gianfranco; Tonoli, Sandro; Zompatori, Maurizio; Alessandrini, Gabriele; Magrini, Stefano Maria; Tiseo, Marcello; Mutri, Vita

    2011-02-01

    Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a very important public health issue. A large amount of data indicates a relationship between mesothelioma and asbestos exposure. The incidence has both considerably and constantly increased over the past 2 decades in the industrialized countries and is expected to peak in 2010-2020. In Italy, a standardized-rate incidence in 2002 among men was 2.98 per 100,000 and 0.98 per 100,000 among women, with wide differences from one region to another. Stage diagnosis and definition may be difficult. Management of patients with MPM remains complex, so an optimal treatment strategy has not yet been clearly defined. The First Italian Consensus Conference on Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma was held Bologna (Italy) in May 20, 2008. The Consensus Conference was given the patronage of the Italian scientific societies AIOM, AIRO, AIPO, SIC, SICO, SICT, SIAPEC-IAP, AIOT, GOAM, and GIME. This Consensus did not answer all of the unresolved questions in MPM management, but the Expert Opinions have nonetheless provided recommendations, presented in this report, on MPM management for clinicians and patients. PMID:20414089

  20. Expert Opinion on the Perceived Effectiveness and Importance of On-Farm Biosecurity Measures for Cattle and Swine Farms in Switzerland

    PubMed Central

    Kuster, Karin; Cousin, Marie-Eve; Jemmi, Thomas; Schüpbach-Regula, Gertraud; Magouras, Ioannis

    2015-01-01

    Biosecurity is crucial for safeguarding livestock from infectious diseases. Despite the plethora of biosecurity recommendations, published scientific evidence on the effectiveness of individual biosecurity measures is limited. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of Swiss experts about the effectiveness and importance of individual on-farm biosecurity measures for cattle and swine farms (31 and 30 measures, respectively). Using a modified Delphi method, 16 Swiss livestock disease specialists (8 for each species) were interviewed. The experts were asked to rank biosecurity measures that were written on cards, by allocating a score from 0 (lowest) to 5 (highest). Experts ranked biosecurity measures based on their importance related to Swiss legislation, feasibility, as well as the effort required for implementation and the benefit of each biosecurity measure. The experts also ranked biosecurity measures based on their effectiveness in preventing an infectious agent from entering and spreading on a farm, solely based on transmission characteristics of specific pathogens. The pathogens considered by cattle experts were those causing Bluetongue (BT), Bovine Viral Diarrhea (BVD), Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis (IBR). Swine experts expressed their opinion on the pathogens causing African Swine Fever (ASF), Enzootic Pneumonia (EP), Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), as well as FMD. For cattle farms, biosecurity measures that improve disease awareness of farmers were ranked as both most important and most effective. For swine farms, the most important and effective measures identified were those related to animal movements. Among all single measures evaluated, education of farmers was perceived by the experts to be the most important and effective for protecting both Swiss cattle and swine farms from disease. The findings of this study provide an important basis for recommendation to farmers and

  1. Expert Opinion on the Perceived Effectiveness and Importance of On-Farm Biosecurity Measures for Cattle and Swine Farms in Switzerland.

    PubMed

    Kuster, Karin; Cousin, Marie-Eve; Jemmi, Thomas; Schüpbach-Regula, Gertraud; Magouras, Ioannis

    2015-01-01

    Biosecurity is crucial for safeguarding livestock from infectious diseases. Despite the plethora of biosecurity recommendations, published scientific evidence on the effectiveness of individual biosecurity measures is limited. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of Swiss experts about the effectiveness and importance of individual on-farm biosecurity measures for cattle and swine farms (31 and 30 measures, respectively). Using a modified Delphi method, 16 Swiss livestock disease specialists (8 for each species) were interviewed. The experts were asked to rank biosecurity measures that were written on cards, by allocating a score from 0 (lowest) to 5 (highest). Experts ranked biosecurity measures based on their importance related to Swiss legislation, feasibility, as well as the effort required for implementation and the benefit of each biosecurity measure. The experts also ranked biosecurity measures based on their effectiveness in preventing an infectious agent from entering and spreading on a farm, solely based on transmission characteristics of specific pathogens. The pathogens considered by cattle experts were those causing Bluetongue (BT), Bovine Viral Diarrhea (BVD), Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis (IBR). Swine experts expressed their opinion on the pathogens causing African Swine Fever (ASF), Enzootic Pneumonia (EP), Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), as well as FMD. For cattle farms, biosecurity measures that improve disease awareness of farmers were ranked as both most important and most effective. For swine farms, the most important and effective measures identified were those related to animal movements. Among all single measures evaluated, education of farmers was perceived by the experts to be the most important and effective for protecting both Swiss cattle and swine farms from disease. The findings of this study provide an important basis for recommendation to farmers and

  2. Diagnosing intramammary infections: evaluating expert opinions on the definition of intramammary infection using conjoint analysis.

    PubMed

    Andersen, S; Dohoo, I R; Olde Riekerink, R; Stryhn, H

    2010-07-01

    The primary purpose of this study was to develop a set of criteria to serve as a pseudo-gold standard for what constitutes an intramammary infection using data from 3 consecutive quarter milk samples taken 1 wk apart. Data from lactating cows in 90 dairy herds in 4 Canadian provinces were used to generate the data sets (profiles) used in the conjoint analysis to elicit expert opinions on the topic. The experts were selected from the participants (n=23) in the 2007 Mastitis Research Workers' Conference in Minneapolis and from a series of mastitis laboratory courses for bovine practitioners (n=25) in the Netherlands. Three-week udder quarter profiles with specific combinations of somatic cell count, bacterial species isolated, and plate colony count were selected and included in the conjoint analysis based on the desire to achieve even distributions in the categories of 6 constructed variables. The participants were presented with 3 sets of cards with 20 cards in each set. On each card, they were asked to assign a probability of infection on the middle day (test day) in the 3-wk profile. Depending on the set of cards, they were asked only to be concerned with the probability of infection with coagulase-negative staphylococci, Escherichia coli, or Staphylococcus aureus. These 3 organisms were chosen to represent a minor pathogen, a major environmental pathogen, and a major contagious pathogen, respectively. The assigned probabilities for each organism were cross-tabulated according to the number of times the organism of interest was isolated in the 3-wk period, how many colonies of the organism of interest were isolated on the test day, and the somatic cell count (200,000 cells/mL). There was considerable variation in the assigned probabilities within each of the combinations of factors. The median, minimum, and maximum values of the assigned probabilities for each combination were computed. The combinations with a median probability >50% were considered

  3. Syndrome Differentiation of Diabetes by the Traditional Chinese Medicine according to Evidence-Based Medicine and Expert Consensus Opinion

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Jing; Chen, Hongdong; Song, Jun; Wang, Jia; Zhao, Linhua; Tong, Xiaolin

    2014-01-01

    In Chinese medicine, diabetes belongs to the category of “Xiaoke disease (disease with symptoms of frequent drinking and urination)”; in the traditional sense, its pathogenesis is “Yin deficiency and dryness-heat.” However, over time, changes in the social environment and lifestyle have also changed the use of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) in diabetes. In this study, we performed diabetes syndrome differentiation using TCM according to evidence-based medicine and expert consensus opinion. PMID:25132859

  4. Intertidal zone management in the Western Indian Ocean: assessing current status and future possibilities using expert opinions.

    PubMed

    Nordlund, Lina Mtwana; de la Torre-Castro, Maricela; Erlandsson, Johan; Conand, Chantal; Muthiga, Nyawira; Jiddawi, Narriman; Gullström, Martin

    2014-12-01

    This expert opinion study examined the current status of the intertidal zone in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) and ranked and discussed future management approaches. Information was gathered from scientists, practitioners, and managers active in the WIO region through a questionnaire and a workshop. The experts stated that the productive intertidal environment is highly valuable for reasons such as recreation, erosion protection, and provision of edible invertebrates and fish. Several anthropogenic pressures were identified, including pollution, harbor activities, overexploitation, and climate change. The experts considered the WIO intertidal zone as generally understudied, undermanaged, and with poor or no monitoring. The most important management strategies according to the expert opinions are to develop and involve local people in integrated coastal zone management (ICZM), to increase knowledge on species-environment relationships, and to develop awareness campaigns and education programs. To improve coastal environmental management and conservation, we argue that the intertidal zone should be treated as one organizational management unit within the larger framework of ICZM. PMID:24375399

  5. Treatment of Liver Tumors with Lipiodol TACE: Technical Recommendations from Experts Opinion.

    PubMed

    de Baere, Thierry; Arai, Yasuaki; Lencioni, Riccardo; Geschwind, Jean-Francois; Rilling, William; Salem, Riad; Matsui, Osamu; Soulen, Michael C

    2016-03-01

    Transarterial chemoembolization with Lipiodol (Lipiodol TACE), also called conventional TACE, was developed in the early 1980s and widely adopted worldwide after randomized control trials and meta-analysis demonstrated superiority of Lipiodol TACE to best supportive care. Presently, there is no level one evidence that other TACE techniques are superior to Lipiodol TACE for intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which includes patients with preserved liver function and nonsurgical large or multinodular HCC without distant metastases. In addition, TACE is part of the treatment for progressive or symptomatic liver metastases from gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. When injected into the hepatic artery, Lipiodol has the unique property of selective uptake and retention in hyperarterialyzed liver tumors. Lipiodol/drug emulsion followed by particle embolization has been demonstrated to improve the pharmacokinetic of the drug and tumor response. Radio opacity of Lipiodol helps to monitor treatment delivery, with retention of Lipiodol serving as an imaging biomarker for tumor response. For 30 years, Lipiodol TACE has been inconsistently referenced in many publications with various levels of details for the method of preparation and administration, with reported progressive outcomes following improvements in the technique and the devices used to deliver the treatment and better patient selection. Consequently, there is no consensus on the standard method of TACE regarding the use of anticancer agents, embolic material, technical details, and the treatment schedule. In order to develop an internationally validated technical recommendation to standardize the Lipiodol TACE procedure, a worldwide panel of experts participated in a consensus meeting held on May 10, 2014 . PMID:26390875

  6. Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

    1976-01-01

    A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

  7. Communicating Chemical Risks for Social Learning: Findings from an Expert Opinion Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lyytimaki, Jari; Assmuth, Timo; Hilden, Mikael

    2009-01-01

    Environmental and health risks caused by chemical substances have been intensively debated in various arenas of science and policy, and in news media. The impacts of risk debates on the public have been widely studied, while less attention has been paid to expert views. We present results from a cross-national survey charting expert views on the…

  8. Quantification of uncertainty sources in a 2D hydraulic model for the river Rhine using expert opinions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warmink, J. J.; van der Klis, H.; Booij, M. J.; Hulscher, S. J. M. H.

    2009-04-01

    Hydrodynamic river models are applied to design and evaluate measures for purposes such as safety against flooding. These numerical models are all based on a deterministic approach. However, the modeling of river processes involves numerous uncertainties, resulting in uncertain model results. Uncertainty is defined as any deviation from the unachievable ideal of complete determinism. Uncertainty in models comprises (1) the difference between a model outcome and a measurement and (2) the possible variation around the computed value or measurements. Knowledge of the type and magnitude of these uncertainties is crucial for a meaningful interpretation of the model results. The aim of this study is to identify the sources of uncertainty that induce the largest uncertainties in the model outcomes and quantify this uncertainty using expert opinions. In this study, the two-dimensional WAQUA model for the Dutch river Rhine is used as an example for the quantification of uncertainty sources. Sixteen experts have been selected based on a Pedigree matrix with 4 criteria: 1) experience with code development, 2) experience with WAQUA projects, 3) experience in years, and 4) number and type of publications about WAQUA. The 16 experts with the highest Pedigree scores have been invited for an interview. Interviews are held with 11 of these experts. During the interviews, the experts are asked to list the most important uncertainty sources for the following two situations: (1) the computation of design water levels (DWL), based on a design discharge wave and (2) the computation of the effect of a measure in the river bed, which is done using a constant discharge as input. To compare the different experts, the experts are asked to quantify the uncertainty sources on the same level of detail. Finally, the experts are asked to quantify the effect of the uncertainty sources on the computed water levels. The experts stated that the sources of uncertainty are different for the computation

  9. Development of the Paris definition of early Crohn's disease for disease-modification trials: results of an international expert opinion process.

    PubMed

    Peyrin-Biroulet, Laurent; Billioud, Vincent; D'Haens, Geert; Panaccione, Remo; Feagan, Brian; Panés, Julian; Danese, Silvio; Schreiber, Stefan; Ogata, Haruhiko; Hibi, Toshifumi; Higgins, Peter D R; Beaugerie, Laurent; Chowers, Yehuda; Louis, Edouard; Steinwurz, Flávio; Reinisch, Walter; Rutgeerts, Paul; Colombel, Jean-Frédéric; Travis, Simon; Sandborn, William J

    2012-12-01

    We report the findings and outputs of an international expert opinion process to develop a definition of early Crohn's disease (CD) that could be used in future disease-modification trials. Nineteen experts on inflammatory bowel diseases held an international expert opinion meeting to discuss and agree on a definition for early CD to be used in disease-modification trials. The process included literature searches for the relevant basic-science and clinical evidence. A published preliminary definition of early CD was used as the basis for development of a proposed definition that was discussed at the expert opinion meeting. The participants then derived a final definition, based on best current knowledge, that it is hoped will be of practical use in disease-modification trials in CD. PMID:23211844

  10. 22 CFR 172.9 - Prohibition on providing expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... opinion testimony. (a) Except as provided in this section, and subject to 5 CFR 2635.805, Department... CFR 2635.805, in their discretion and with the concurrence of the Office of the Legal Adviser, grant... scope and performance of their official Department duties, except on behalf of the United States or...

  11. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

    SciTech Connect

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The Columbia River basalts underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett basalt flow interior. The Cohassett basalt flow is the prime candidate horizon for repository studies. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. The results indicate significant differences of expert opinion for cumulative probabilities of less than 10% and greater than 90%, but relatively close agreement in the middle ranges of values. The principal causes of the diversity of opinion are believed to be the lack of site-specific data and the absence of a single, widely accepted, conceptual or theoretical basis for analyzing these variables.

  12. Macro-Behaviour of Agents' Opinion under Influence of an External Field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Yun-Feng; Cai, Xu

    2007-08-01

    We propose a model to study the evolution of opinion under the influence of an external field on small world network. The macro-behaviour of agents' opinion and the relative change rate as time elapses are studied. The external field is found to play an important role in making the opinion s(t) balance or increase, and without the influence of the external field, the relative change rate γ(t) shows nonlinear increasing behaviour as time runs. What is more, this nonlinear increasing behaviour is independent of the initial condition, the strength of the external field and the time that we cancel the external field. The results may reflect some phenomena in our society, such as the function of the macro-control in China or the mass media in our society.

  13. The use of subjective expert opinions in cost optimum design of aerospace structures. [probabilistic failure models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas, J. M.; Hanagud, S.

    1975-01-01

    The results of two questionnaires sent to engineering experts are statistically analyzed and compared with objective data from Saturn V design and testing. Engineers were asked how likely it was for structural failure to occur at load increments above and below analysts' stress limit predictions. They were requested to estimate the relative probabilities of different failure causes, and of failure at each load increment given a specific cause. Three mathematical models are constructed based on the experts' assessment of causes. The experts' overall assessment of prediction strength fits the Saturn V data better than the models do, but a model test option (T-3) based on the overall assessment gives more design change likelihood to overstrength structures than does an older standard test option. T-3 compares unfavorably with the standard option in a cost optimum structural design problem. The report reflects a need for subjective data when objective data are unavailable.

  14. Accelerating Struggling Readers' Progress: A Comparative Analysis of Expert Opinion and Current Research Recommendations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reutzel, D. Ray; Smith, John A.

    2004-01-01

    In this article, we review the findings of Rona Flippo's (1998) "Expert Study" within the comparative context of recently published reading research reports such as the National Reading Panel report (National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, 2000) and Preventing Reading Difficulties in Young Children (Snow, Burns, & Griffin, 1998).…

  15. Using Expert Opinion to Determine Professional Development Needs of School Counselors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Comas, Robert E.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    Surveyed national experts (N=73) in the field about training needs of school counselors. Results showed topics identified through frequency tabulations dealt with areas often reflective of concerns of today's society: single-parent families, drug and alcohol abuse, childrearing skills, ethics, use of computers, and consultation with teachers and…

  16. Quantitative Agent Based Model of Opinion Dynamics: Polish Elections of 2015

    PubMed Central

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    2016-01-01

    We present results of an abstract, agent based model of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) approach, applied to a strongly polarized society, corresponding to the Polish political scene between 2005 and 2015. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of two subcommunities of comparable size (supporting the corresponding opinions)—which corresponds to the bipartisan split found in Poland. Spurred by the recent breakdown of this political duopoly, which occurred in 2015, we present a model extension that describes both the long term coexistence of the two opposing opinions and a rapid, transitory change due to the appearance of a third party alternative. We provide quantitative comparison of the model with the results of polls and elections in Poland, testing the assumptions related to the modeled processes and the parameters used in the simulations. It is shown, that when the propaganda messages of the two incumbent parties differ in emotional tone, the political status quo may be unstable. The asymmetry of the emotions within the support bases of the two parties allows one of them to be ‘invaded’ by a newcomer third party very quickly, while the second remains immune to such invasion. PMID:27171226

  17. Quantitative Agent Based Model of Opinion Dynamics: Polish Elections of 2015.

    PubMed

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    2016-01-01

    We present results of an abstract, agent based model of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) approach, applied to a strongly polarized society, corresponding to the Polish political scene between 2005 and 2015. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of two subcommunities of comparable size (supporting the corresponding opinions)-which corresponds to the bipartisan split found in Poland. Spurred by the recent breakdown of this political duopoly, which occurred in 2015, we present a model extension that describes both the long term coexistence of the two opposing opinions and a rapid, transitory change due to the appearance of a third party alternative. We provide quantitative comparison of the model with the results of polls and elections in Poland, testing the assumptions related to the modeled processes and the parameters used in the simulations. It is shown, that when the propaganda messages of the two incumbent parties differ in emotional tone, the political status quo may be unstable. The asymmetry of the emotions within the support bases of the two parties allows one of them to be 'invaded' by a newcomer third party very quickly, while the second remains immune to such invasion. PMID:27171226

  18. The effectiveness and practicality of occupational stress management interventions: a survey of subject matter expert opinions.

    PubMed

    Bellarosa, C; Chen, P Y

    1997-07-01

    Stress management (SM) subject matter experts (SMEs) evaluated 6 widely used occupational SM interventions (relaxation, physical fitness, cognitive restructuring, meditation, assertiveness training, and stress inoculation) on the basis of 10 practicality criteria and 7 effectiveness objectives. Relaxation was evaluated overall as the most practical intervention, while meditation and stress inoculation were judged as the least practical. Physical fitness was chosen to be the most effective intervention, while both meditation and assertiveness training were rated overall as the least effective. The findings also revealed that the SMEs considered history of success and duration of effect, rather than "relevance to program objectives," as the most important factors when selecting SM interventions. Incongruence between effectiveness ratings and actual choices of interventions are discussed. PMID:9552295

  19. Spallation Neutron Source Availability Top-Down Apportionment Using Characteristic Factors and Expert Opinion

    SciTech Connect

    Haire, M.J.; Schryver, J.C.

    1999-10-01

    Apportionment is the assignment of top-level requirements to lower tier elements of the overall facility. A method for apportioning overall facility availability requirements among systems and subsystems is presented. Characteristics that influence equipment reliability and maintainability are discussed. Experts, using engineering judgment, scored each characteristic for each system whose availability design goal is to be established. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method is used to produce a set of weighted rankings for each characteristic for each alternative system. A mathematical model is derived which incorporates these weighting factors. The method imposes higher availability requirements on those systems in which an incremental increase in availability is easier to achieve, and lower availability requirements where greater availability is more difficult and costly. An example is given of applying this top-down apportionment methodology to the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) facility.

  20. Recurrent issues in efforts to prevent homicidal youth violence in schools: expert opinions.

    PubMed

    Dill, Karen E; Redding, Richard E; Smith, Peter K; Surette, Ray; Cornell, Dewey G

    2011-01-01

    Developmental research on social influences on adolescents can guide practices aimed to prevent homicidal youth violence. School shootings have repeatedly raised questions about the contributory role of bullying and entertainment violence, how news media publicity might produce copycat crimes, and whether stiffer criminal sanctions might have a deterrent effect. This article presents the thoughts and recommendations of a group of experts on these topics summarizing the current knowledge base. In brief, bullying reduction programs may be a useful early prevention effort. Television and video games with violent themes can encourage aggressive behavior, but these media can be used to teach more prosocial behavior as well. The potential copycat effects of highly publicized crimes might be diminished with more restrained reporting, although more research is needed. Finally, there is substantial evidence that increased criminal sanctions for youthful offenders have not had a deterrent effect. PMID:21491577

  1. Management of cardiovascular risk in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: evidence and expert opinion

    PubMed Central

    van den Oever, Inge A.M.; van Sijl, Alper M.

    2013-01-01

    The risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality is increased in rheumatoid arthritis. The classical cardiovascular risk factors, including smoking, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, insulin resistance and diabetes mellitus, obesity and physical inactivity do not appear to explain the excess cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis, although they do contribute, albeit in a different way or to a lesser extent, to rheumatoid arthritis in comparison with the general population. A very important link between rheumatoid arthritis and cardiovascular disease is inflammation as it plays a key role in all stages of atherosclerosis: from endothelial dysfunction to plaque rupture and thrombosis. It also has an influence on and accentuates some traditional cardiovascular risk factors, such as dyslipidaemia, obesity and insulin resistance. To date, the exact pathophysiologic mechanism by which this relation between cardiovascular disease and rheumatoid arthritis can be explained is not completely clear. Cardiovascular risk management in rheumatoid arthritis is mandatory. Unfortunately, the way this should be done remains a point of discussion. In this review issues regarding cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis and its management will be addressed, according to evidence presented in the latest studies and our own experience-based opinion. PMID:23904862

  2. Nurses' expert opinions of workplace interventions for a healthy working environment: a Delphi survey.

    PubMed

    Doran, Diane; Clarke, Sean; Hayes, Laureen; Nincic, Vera

    2014-09-01

    Much has been written about interventions to improve the nursing work environment, yet little is known about their effectiveness. A Delphi survey of nurse experts was conducted to explore perceptions about workplace interventions in terms of feasibility and likelihood of positive impact on nurse outcomes such as job satisfaction and nurse retention. The interventions that received the highest ratings for likelihood of positive impact included: bedside handover to improve communication at shift report and promote patient-centred care; training program for nurses in dealing with violent or aggressive behaviour; development of charge nurse leadership team; training program focused on creating peer-supportive atmospheres and group cohesion; and schedule that recognizes work balance and family demands. The overall findings are consistent with the literature that highlights the importance of communication and teamwork, nurse health and safety, staffing and scheduling practices, professional development and leadership and mentorship. Nursing researchers and decision-makers should work in collaboration to implement and evaluate interventions for promoting practice environments characterized by effective communication and teamwork, professional growth and adequate support for the health and well-being of nurses. PMID:25676080

  3. Management of adverse events associated with idelalisib treatment: expert panel opinion

    PubMed Central

    Coutré, Steven E.; Barrientos, Jacqueline C.; Brown, Jennifer R.; de Vos, Sven; Furman, Richard R.; Keating, Michael J.; Li, Daniel; O’Brien, Susan M.; Pagel, John M.; Poleski, Martin H.; Sharman, Jeff P.; Yao, Nai-Shun; Zelenetz, Andrew D.

    2015-01-01

    Idelalisib is a first-in-class selective, oral, phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase delta (PI3Kδ) inhibitor approved for the treatment of several types of blood cancer. Idelalisib has demonstrated significant efficacy and a tolerable safety profile in clinical trials. However, the US prescribing information contains a black box warning for fatal and/or severe diarrhea or colitis, hepatotoxicity, pneumonitis and intestinal perforation. An expert panel was convened to review the pathology of these treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) to propose key management tools for patients receiving idelalisib therapy. This article provides an overview of idelalisib TEAEs reported in clinical trials, and a summary of the panel's recommendations for identification and management of idelalisib treatment-emergent diarrhea or colitis as well as a discussion of transaminitis and pneumonitis. For idelalisib-related diarrhea or colitis (including unresolved grade 2 and grade ≥ 3), after exclusion of infectious causes, the panel recommends individualized treatment with budesonide or oral or intravenous steroid therapy. PMID:25726955

  4. Preoperative and perioperative use of levosimendan in cardiac surgery: European expert opinion.

    PubMed

    Toller, W; Heringlake, M; Guarracino, F; Algotsson, L; Alvarez, J; Argyriadou, H; Ben-Gal, T; Černý, V; Cholley, B; Eremenko, A; Guerrero-Orriach, J L; Järvelä, K; Karanovic, N; Kivikko, M; Lahtinen, P; Lomivorotov, V; Mehta, R H; Mušič, Š; Pollesello, P; Rex, S; Riha, H; Rudiger, A; Salmenperä, M; Szudi, L; Tritapepe, L; Wyncoll, D; Öwall, A

    2015-04-01

    In cardiac surgery, postoperative low cardiac output has been shown to correlate with increased rates of organ failure and mortality. Catecholamines have been the standard therapy for many years, although they carry substantial risk for adverse cardiac and systemic effects, and have been reported to be associated with increased mortality. On the other hand, the calcium sensitiser and potassium channel opener levosimendan has been shown to improve cardiac function with no imbalance in oxygen consumption, and to have protective effects in other organs. Numerous clinical trials have indicated favourable cardiac and non-cardiac effects of preoperative and perioperative administration of levosimendan. A panel of 27 experts from 18 countries has now reviewed the literature on the use of levosimendan in on-pump and off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting and in heart valve surgery. This panel discussed the published evidence in these various settings, and agreed to vote on a set of questions related to the cardioprotective effects of levosimendan when administered preoperatively, with the purpose of reaching a consensus on which patients could benefit from the preoperative use of levosimendan and in which kind of procedures, and at which doses and timing should levosimendan be administered. Here, we present a systematic review of the literature to report on the completed and ongoing studies on levosimendan, including the newly commenced LEVO-CTS phase III study (NCT02025621), and on the consensus reached on the recommendations proposed for the use of preoperative levosimendan. PMID:25734940

  5. Evaluation of food provision and nutrition support at the London 2012 Olympic Games: the opinion of sports nutrition experts.

    PubMed

    Pelly, Fiona; Meyer, Nanna L; Pearce, Jeni; Burkhart, Sarah J; Burke, Louise M

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the food provision and nutrition support at the London 2012 Olympic (OG) and Paralympic Games (PG) from the perspective of sports nutrition experts attending the event. Participants (n = 15) were asked to complete an online survey and rate on a Likert scale menu qualities, food safety, sustainability practices, nutrition labeling, and provision for cultural needs, dietary regimes and specific situations. Open-ended responses were incorporated to explore expert opinion and areas for improvement. Participants rated their overall experience of the food provision as 7.6 out of 10 (range 5 to 10), with the majority (n = 11) rating it greater than 7. The variety, accessibility, presentation, temperature, and freshness of menu items rated as average to good. A below average rating was received for recovery food and beverages, provision of food for traveling to other venues, taking suitable snacks out of the dining hall and provision of food at other venues. However, the variety and accessibility of choices for Ramadan, and provision of post-competition food were rated highly. A number of comments were received about the lack of gluten free and lower energy/fat items. The inclusion of allergens on nutrition labeling was considered more important than nutrient content. While dietetic review of the menu in advance of the OG and PG is clearly a valuable process that has resulted in improvements in the food supply, there are still areas that need to be addressed that are currently not implemented during the event. PMID:24903640

  6. Method for distributed agent-based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior

    DOEpatents

    Ivezic, Nenad; Potok, Thomas E.

    2004-11-30

    A method for distributed agent based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior on a single-processor computer comprises the steps of: object modeling a manufacturing technique having a plurality of processes; associating a distributed agent with each the process; and, programming each the agent to respond to discrete events corresponding to the manufacturing technique, wherein each discrete event triggers a programmed response. The method can further comprise the step of transmitting the discrete events to each agent in a message loop. In addition, the programming step comprises the step of conditioning each agent to respond to a discrete event selected from the group consisting of a clock tick message, a resources received message, and a request for output production message.

  7. The Effects of Peer-Like and Expert-Like Pedagogical Agents on Learners' Agent Perceptions, Task-Related Attitudes, and Learning Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liew, Tze Wei; Tan, Su-Mae; Jayothisa, Chandrika

    2013-01-01

    The present study examined the impact of peer-like and expert-like agent stereotypes, as operationalized by agent's image and voice, on learners' agent perceptions, task-related attitudes, and learning achievement. 56 university freshmen (23 males and 33 females) interacted with either the peer-like agent (female college student) or the…

  8. Survey of Opinions on the Primacy of "g" and Social Consequences of Ability Testing: A Comparison of Expert and Non-Expert Views

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reeve, Charlie L.; Charles, Jennifer E.

    2008-01-01

    The current study examines the views of experts in the science of mental abilities about the primacy and uniqueness of "g" and the social implications of ability testing, and compares their responses to the views of a group of non-expert psychologists. Results indicate expert consensus that "g" is an important, non-trivial determinant (or at least…

  9. Spanning the Research/Application Interface: Liaisons and Trainers as Agents Bridging Expert and Semi-Expert Discourses.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Werner, Mark

    This paper reviews the communicative behavior surrounding the coordination of expert and "semi-expert" groups of scientists and engineers by analyzing several histories of technology that focus on the coordination of research information between a research organization and many development organizations. For the paper's purposes, semi-expert means…

  10. Ethical acceptability of research on human-animal chimeric embryos: summary of opinions by the Japanese Expert Panel on Bioethics.

    PubMed

    Mizuno, Hiroshi; Akutsu, Hidenori; Kato, Kazuto

    2015-01-01

    Human-animal chimeric embryos are embryos obtained by introducing human cells into a non-human animal embryo. It is envisaged that the application of human-animal chimeric embryos may make possible many useful research projects including producing three-dimensional human organs in animals and verification of the pluripotency of human ES cells or iPS cells in vivo. The use of human-animal chimeric embryos, however, raises several ethical and moral concerns. The most fundamental one is that human-animal chimeric embryos possess the potential to develop into organisms containing human-derived tissue, which may lead to infringing upon the identity of the human species, and thus impairing human dignity. The Japanese Expert Panel on Bioethics in the Cabinet Office carefully considered the scientific significance and ethical acceptability of the issue and released its "Opinions regarding the handling of research using human-animal chimeric embryos". The Panel proposed a framework of case-by-case review, and suggested that the following points must be carefully reviewed from the perspective of ethical acceptability: (a) Types of animal embryos and types of animals receiving embryo transfers, particularly in dealing with non-human primates; (b) Types of human cells and organs intended for production, particularly in dealing with human nerve or germ cells; and (c) Extent of the period required for post-transfer studies. The scientific knowledge that can be gained from transfer into an animal uterus and from the production of an individual must be clarified to avoid unnecessary generation of chimeric animals. The time is ripe for the scientific community and governments to start discussing the ethical issues for establishing a global consensus. PMID:26694481

  11. The Use of Expert Opinion to Assess the Risk of Emergence or Re-Emergence of Infectious Diseases in Canada Associated with Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Cox, Ruth; Revie, Crawford W.; Sanchez, Javier

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change is predicted to lead to an increase in infectious disease outbreaks. Reliable surveillance for diseases that are most likely to emerge is required, and given limited resources, policy decision makers need rational methods with which to prioritise pathogen threats. Here expert opinion was collected to determine what criteria could be used to prioritise diseases according to the likelihood of emergence in response to climate change and according to their impact. We identified a total of 40 criteria that might be used for this purpose in the Canadian context. The opinion of 64 experts from academic, government and independent backgrounds was collected to determine the importance of the criteria. A weight was calculated for each criterion based on the expert opinion. The five that were considered most influential on disease emergence or impact were: potential economic impact, severity of disease in the general human population, human case fatality rate, the type of climate that the pathogen can tolerate and the current climatic conditions in Canada. There was effective consensus about the influence of some criteria among participants, while for others there was considerable variation. The specific climate criteria that were most likely to influence disease emergence were: an annual increase in temperature, an increase in summer temperature, an increase in summer precipitation and to a lesser extent an increase in winter temperature. These climate variables were considered to be most influential on vector-borne diseases and on food and water-borne diseases. Opinion about the influence of climate on air-borne diseases and diseases spread by direct/indirect contact were more variable. The impact of emerging diseases on the human population was deemed more important than the impact on animal populations. PMID:22848536

  12. Workflow Agents vs. Expert Systems: Problem Solving Methods in Work Systems Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clancey, William J.; Sierhuis, Maarten; Seah, Chin

    2009-01-01

    During the 1980s, a community of artificial intelligence researchers became interested in formalizing problem solving methods as part of an effort called "second generation expert systems" (2nd GES). How do the motivations and results of this research relate to building tools for the workplace today? We provide an historical review of how the theory of expertise has developed, a progress report on a tool for designing and implementing model-based automation (Brahms), and a concrete example how we apply 2nd GES concepts today in an agent-based system for space flight operations (OCAMS). Brahms incorporates an ontology for modeling work practices, what people are doing in the course of a day, characterized as "activities." OCAMS was developed using a simulation-to-implementation methodology, in which a prototype tool was embedded in a simulation of future work practices. OCAMS uses model-based methods to interactively plan its actions and keep track of the work to be done. The problem solving methods of practice are interactive, employing reasoning for and through action in the real world. Analogously, it is as if a medical expert system were charged not just with interpreting culture results, but actually interacting with a patient. Our perspective shifts from building a "problem solving" (expert) system to building an actor in the world. The reusable components in work system designs include entire "problem solvers" (e.g., a planning subsystem), interoperability frameworks, and workflow agents that use and revise models dynamically in a network of people and tools. Consequently, the research focus shifts so "problem solving methods" include ways of knowing that models do not fit the world, and ways of interacting with other agents and people to gain or verify information and (ultimately) adapt rules and procedures to resolve problematic situations.

  13. Health Experts’ Opinions about Tobacco Control Activities in Iran: Results from a Delphi Panel of National Experts

    PubMed Central

    Sharifi, Hooman; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza

    2012-01-01

    Background Iran signed the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control on June 16, 2003 and it was ratified by the parliament and the House of Representatives on November 6, 2005. Finally, it came into force on February 4, 2006. In this study, we aimed to evaluate health experts’ opinion about tobacco control activities in Iran. Materials and Methods This was a qualitative case study. We used a series of open-ended questionnaires to assess important information regarding Iranian National Tobacco Control law and FCTC implementation. The study population comprised of health experts. Use of this method ensured the validity of questionnaires’ contents. The first round of the questionnaire had been pre-tested in a pilot study. The final structure and lay out of questionnaires consisted of three main parts. The first part was designed with 7 multiple choice questions. Participants were able to rank answers from five (the most important) to one (the least important). The second part comprised four questions mainly on National Tobacco Control Program (NTCP) and the final part was about FCTC. Data collection was carried out between May 2010 and May 2011. In the analysis process each interview was considered as a separate case and then compared to other cases to ascertain variations in answers. Results All 40 members (100%) of the panel completed the entire process. All the participants had a consensus on tobacco control program in Iran. They believed the prevention programs to be important priorities in this regard. Tobacco Company as a governmental organization is believed to be the main barrier against tobacco control activities in Iran, and banning sales of tobacco to minors and controlling its smuggling are important factors for decreasing the supply of tobacco products. It is essential to implement comprehensive tobacco control law in Iran. Conclusion It is essential to implement comprehensive tobacco control law in Iran that covers all the priorities mentioned above

  14. Defining Landscape Resistance Values in Least-Cost Connectivity Models for the Invasive Grey Squirrel: A Comparison of Approaches Using Expert-Opinion and Habitat Suitability Modelling

    PubMed Central

    Stevenson-Holt, Claire D.; Watts, Kevin; Bellamy, Chloe C.; Nevin, Owen T.; Ramsey, Andrew D.

    2014-01-01

    Least-cost models are widely used to study the functional connectivity of habitat within a varied landscape matrix. A critical step in the process is identifying resistance values for each land cover based upon the facilitating or impeding impact on species movement. Ideally resistance values would be parameterised with empirical data, but due to a shortage of such information, expert-opinion is often used. However, the use of expert-opinion is seen as subjective, human-centric and unreliable. This study derived resistance values from grey squirrel habitat suitability models (HSM) in order to compare the utility and validity of this approach with more traditional, expert-led methods. Models were built and tested with MaxEnt, using squirrel presence records and a categorical land cover map for Cumbria, UK. Predictions on the likelihood of squirrel occurrence within each land cover type were inverted, providing resistance values which were used to parameterise a least-cost model. The resulting habitat networks were measured and compared to those derived from a least-cost model built with previously collated information from experts. The expert-derived and HSM-inferred least-cost networks differ in precision. The HSM-informed networks were smaller and more fragmented because of the higher resistance values attributed to most habitats. These results are discussed in relation to the applicability of both approaches for conservation and management objectives, providing guidance to researchers and practitioners attempting to apply and interpret a least-cost approach to mapping ecological networks. PMID:25380289

  15. What to Do, and What Not to Do, When Diagnosing and Treating Breakthrough Cancer Pain (BTcP): Expert Opinion.

    PubMed

    Vellucci, R; Fanelli, G; Pannuti, R; Peruselli, C; Adamo, S; Alongi, G; Amato, F; Consoletti, L; Lamarca, L; Liguori, S; Lo Presti, C; Maione, A; Mameli, S; Marinangeli, F; Marulli, S; Minotti, V; Miotti, D; Montanari, L; Moruzzi, G; Palermo, S; Parolini, M; Poli, P; Tirelli, W; Valle, A; Romualdi, P

    2016-03-01

    Clinical management of breakthrough cancer pain (BTcP) is still not satisfactory despite the availability of effective pharmacological agents. This is in part linked to the lack of clarity regarding certain essential aspects of BTcP, including terminology, definition, epidemiology and assessment. Other barriers to effective management include a widespread prejudice among doctors and patients concerning the use of opioids, and inadequate assessment of pain severity, resulting in the prescription of ineffective drugs or doses. This review presents an overview of the appropriate and inappropriate actions to take in the diagnosis and treatment of BTcP, as determined by a panel of experts in the field. The ultimate aim is to provide a practical contribution to the unresolved issues in the management of BTcP. Five 'things to do' and five 'things not to do' in the diagnosis and treatment of BTcP are proposed, and evidence supporting said recommendations are described. It is the duty of all healthcare workers involved in managing cancer patients to be mindful of the possibility of BTcP occurrence and not to underestimate its severity. It is vital that all the necessary steps are carried out to establish an accurate and timely diagnosis, principally by establishing effective communication with the patient, the main information source. It is crucial that BTcP is treated with an effective pharmacological regimen and drug(s), dose and administration route prescribed are designed to suit the particular type of pain and importantly the individual needs of the patient. PMID:26755179

  16. Effects of Noise Suppression on Intelligibility: Experts' Opinions and Naive Normal-Hearing Listeners' Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilkhuysen, Gaston L. M.; Gaubitch, Nikolay; Huckvale, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: In this study, the authors investigated how well experts can adjust the settings of a commercial noise-reduction system to optimize the intelligibility for naive normal-hearing listeners. Method: In Experiment 1, 5 experts adjusted parameters for a noise-reduction system while aiming to optimize intelligibility. The stimuli consisted of…

  17. Portal hypertension in children: expert pediatric opinion on the report of the Baveno v Consensus Workshop on Methodology of Diagnosis and Therapy in Portal Hypertension.

    PubMed

    Shneider, Benjamin L; Bosch, Jaime; de Franchis, Roberto; Emre, Sukru H; Groszmann, Roberto J; Ling, Simon C; Lorenz, Jonathan M; Squires, Robert H; Superina, Riccardo A; Thompson, Ann E; Mazariegos, George V

    2012-08-01

    Complications of portal hypertension in children lead to significant morbidity and are a leading indication for consideration of liver transplantation. Approaches to the management of sequelae of portal hypertension are well described for adults and evidence-based approaches have been summarized in numerous meta-analyses and conferences. In contrast, there is a paucity of data to guide the management of complications of portal hypertension in children. An international panel of experts was convened on April 8, 2011 at The Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh of UPMC to review and adapt the recent report of the Baveno V Consensus Workshop on the Methodology of Diagnosis and Therapy in Portal Hypertension to the care of children. The opinions of that expert panel are reported. PMID:22409296

  18. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of three basalt waste isolation project staff hydrologists

    SciTech Connect

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The present study implemented a probability encoding method to estimate the probability distributions of selected hydrologic variables for the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior, and the anisotropy ratio of the interior of the Cohassett basalt flow beneath the Hanford Site. Site-speciic data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. However, this information is required to complete preliminary performance assessment studies. Rockwell chose a probability encoding method developed by SRI International to generate credible and auditable estimates of the probability distributions of effective porosity and hydraulic conductivity anisotropy. The results indicate significant differences of opinion among the experts. This was especially true of the values of the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow interior for which estimates differ by more than five orders of magnitude. The experts are in greater agreement about the values of effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top; their estimates for this variable are generally within one to two orders of magnitiude of each other. For anisotropy ratio, the expert estimates are generally within two or three orders of magnitude of each other. Based on this study, the Rockwell hydrologists estimate the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top to be generally higher than do the independent experts. For the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a smaller uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts. On the other hand, for the effective porosity and anisotropy ratio of the Cohassett basalt flow interior, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a larger uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts.

  19. Best practice strategies to safeguard drug prescribing and drug administration: an anthology of expert views and opinions.

    PubMed

    Seidling, Hanna M; Stützle, Marion; Hoppe-Tichy, Torsten; Allenet, Benoît; Bedouch, Pierrick; Bonnabry, Pascal; Coleman, Jamie J; Fernandez-Llimos, Fernando; Lovis, Christian; Rei, Maria Jose; Störzinger, Dominic; Taylor, Lenka A; Pontefract, Sarah K; van den Bemt, Patricia M L A; van der Sijs, Heleen; Haefeli, Walter E

    2016-04-01

    Background While evidence on implementation of medication safety strategies is increasing, reasons for selecting and relinquishing distinct strategies and details on implementation are typically not shared in published literature. Objective We aimed to collect and structure expert information resulting from implementing medication safety strategies to provide advice for decision-makers. Setting Medication safety experts with clinical expertise from thirteen hospitals throughout twelve European and North American countries shared their experience in workshop meetings, on-site-visits and remote structured interviews. Methods We performed an expert-based, in-depth assessment of implementation of best-practice strategies to improve drug prescribing and drug administration. Main outcome measures Workflow, variability and recommended medication safety strategies in drug prescribing and drug administration processes. Results According to the experts, institutions chose strategies that targeted process steps known to be particularly error-prone in the respective setting. Often, the selection was channeled by local constraints such as the e-health equipment and critically modulated by national context factors. In our study, the experts favored electronic prescribing with clinical decision support and medication reconciliation as most promising interventions. They agreed that self-assessment and introduction of medication safety boards were crucial to satisfy the setting-specific differences and foster successful implementation. Conclusion While general evidence for implementation of strategies to improve medication safety exists, successful selection and adaptation of a distinct strategy requires a thorough knowledge of the institute-specific constraints and an ongoing monitoring and adjustment of the implemented measures. PMID:26964781

  20. Voices from the Field: 30 Expert Opinions on America 2000, The Bush Administration Strategy To "Reinvent" America's Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Institute for Educational Leadership, Washington, DC.

    "America 2000," President Bush's national strategy for "Reinventing America's Schools" is evaluated by 30 invited experts in the following papers: "Bottom-up Reform From the Top Down" (John E. Chubb); "Would Choice + Competition Yield Quality Education?" (Richard F. Elmore); "The Federal Education Role Comes of Age" (Denis P. Doyle; "Choice,…

  1. Scratching the surface of tomorrow's diagnostics: the Editor-in-Chief's opinion at the 15th year of Expert Review of Molecular Diagnostics.

    PubMed

    Lorincz, Attila; Raison, Claire

    2015-01-01

    Interview with Attila Lorincz by Claire Raison (Commissioning Editor) To mark the beginning of the 15th year of Expert Review of Molecular Diagnostics, the journal's Editor-in-Chief shares his expert knowledge on translational diagnostics, his opinion on recent controversies and his predictions for molecular diagnostics in 2015 and beyond. Attila Lorincz received his doctorate from Trinity College, Dublin, Republic of Ireland, and went on to become a research fellow at the University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA. During Professor Lorincz's research on human papillomavirus (HPV), he found several important and novel carcinogenic HPV types and pioneered the use of HPV DNA testing for clinical diagnostics. In 1988, Professor Lorincz's team produced the first HPV test to be FDA-approved for patients and in 2003, for general population cervical precancer screening. Now Professor of Molecular Epidemiology at the Centre for Cancer Prevention, Queen Mary University of London, UK, he and his team are furthering translational research into DNA methylation assays for cancer risk prediction. PMID:25537568

  2. A distributed agent architecture for real-time knowledge-based systems: Real-time expert systems project, phase 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, S. Daniel

    1990-01-01

    We propose a distributed agent architecture (DAA) that can support a variety of paradigms based on both traditional real-time computing and artificial intelligence. DAA consists of distributed agents that are classified into two categories: reactive and cognitive. Reactive agents can be implemented directly in Ada to meet hard real-time requirements and be deployed on on-board embedded processors. A traditional real-time computing methodology under consideration is the rate monotonic theory that can guarantee schedulability based on analytical methods. AI techniques under consideration for reactive agents are approximate or anytime reasoning that can be implemented using Bayesian belief networks as in Guardian. Cognitive agents are traditional expert systems that can be implemented in ART-Ada to meet soft real-time requirements. During the initial design of cognitive agents, it is critical to consider the migration path that would allow initial deployment on ground-based workstations with eventual deployment on on-board processors. ART-Ada technology enables this migration while Lisp-based technologies make it difficult if not impossible. In addition to reactive and cognitive agents, a meta-level agent would be needed to coordinate multiple agents and to provide meta-level control.

  3. Personalised, predictive and preventive medication process in hospitals—still rather missing: professional opinion survey on medication safety in Czech hospitals (based on professional opinions of recognised Czech health care experts)

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The survey had the following aims: (1) to rationalise the hypothesis that risks and losses relating to medication process' errors in Czech hospitals are at least comparable with the other developed countries and EU countries especially, (2) to get a valid professional opinion/estimate on the rate of adverse drug events happening in Czech hospitals, (3) to point out that medication errors represent real and serious risks and (4) to induce the hospital management readiness to execute fundamental changes and improvements to medication processes. We read through a lot of studies inquiring into hospitals' medication safety. Then, we selected the studies which brought reliable findings and formulated credible conclusions. Finally, we addressed reputable Czech experts in health care and asked them structured questions whether the studies' findings and conclusions corresponded with our respondents' own experience in the Czech hospital clinical practice and what their own estimates of adverse drug events' consequences were like. Based on the reputable Czech health care expert opinions/estimates, the rate of a false drug administration may exceed 5%, and over 7% of those cause serious health complications to Czech hospital inpatients. Measured by an average length of stay (ALOS), the Czech inpatients, harmed by a false drug administration, stay in hospital for more than 2.6 days longer than necessary. Any positive changes to a currently used, traditional, ways of drug dispensing and administration, along with computerisation, automation, electronic traceability, validation, or verification, must well pay off. Referring to the above results, it seems to be wise to follow the EU priorities in health and health care improvements. Thus, a right usage of the financial means provided by the EC—in terms of its new health programmes for the period 2014–2020 (e.g. Horizon 2020)—has a good chance of a good result in doing the right things right, at the right time and in the

  4. Practical guidance and considerations for transitioning patients from oxcarbazepine or carbamazepine to eslicarbazepine acetate--Expert opinion.

    PubMed

    Peltola, Jukka; Holtkamp, Martin; Rocamora, Rodrigo; Ryvlin, Philippe; Sieradzan, Kasia; Villanueva, Vicente

    2015-09-01

    There is currently a lack of guidance on methodology and special considerations for transitioning patients from oxcarbazepine (OXC) or carbamazepine (CBZ) to eslicarbazepine acetate (ESL), if deemed clinically necessary. An advisory panel of epilepsy experts was convened to share their experience on the use of adjunctive ESL in clinical practice and to provide practical recommendations to help address this gap. When changing over from OXC to ESL, an OXC:ESL dose ratio of 1:1 should be employed to calculate the ESL target dose, and the changeover can take place overnight. No changes to comedication are required. Since CBZ has a different mechanism of action to ESL and is a stronger inducer of cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzymes, the transitioning of patients from CBZ to ESL requires careful consideration on a patient-by-patient basis. In general, a CBZ:ESL dose ratio of 1:1.3 should be employed to calculate the ESL target dose, and patients should be transitioned over a minimum period of 1-2weeks. Special considerations include adjustment of titration schedule and target dose in elderly patients and those with hepatic or renal impairment and potential adjustment of comedications metabolized by CYP enzymes. In summary, due to structural distinctions between ESL, OXC, and CBZ, which affect mechanism of action and tolerability, there are clinical situations in which it may be appropriate to consider transitioning patients from OXC or CBZ to ESL. Changing patients over from OXC to ESL is generally more straightforward than transitioning patients from CBZ to ESL, which requires careful consideration. PMID:26114438

  5. [Review and expert opinion in age related macular degeneration. Focus on the pathophysiology, angiogenesis and pharmacological and clinical data].

    PubMed

    Weber, M; Sennlaub, F; Souied, E; Cohen, S-Y; Béhar-Cohen, F; Milano, G; Tadayoni, R

    2014-09-01

    Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is a pathological aging of the macula, brought about by the interaction of genetic and environmental factors. It induces geographic atrophy of the retina and/or choroidal neovascularization. In the latter, abnormal vessels develop from the choriocapillaris, with the involvement of VEGF (vascular endothelial growth factor). The VEGF family includes several factors, including VEGF-A, B, C, D, F and PlGF (placental growth factor). Their biological properties and their affinities to the VEGFR1, VEGFR2 and VEGFR3 receptors found on endothelial cells differ. Exudative AMD involves mainly VEGF-A and VEGF-R2. Anti-VEGF agents used in ophthalmology (ranibizumab, bevacizumab and aflibercept) are designed to primarily target this pathway. In vitro, all have sufficient affinity to their ligands. Their therapeutic efficacy must therefore be judged based on clinical criteria. In clinical practice, the minimum number of injections required for a satisfactory result appears to be comparable with all the three. The few available studies on therapeutic substitutions of anti-VEGF compounds suggest that some patients may benefit from substituting the anti-VEGF in cases of an unsatisfactory response to an initial molecule. Although local side effects, including increased risk of geographic atrophy, and systemic effects, including vascular accidents, have been suggested, these risks remain low, specially compared to the benefits of the treatment. Differences in safety between anti-VEGF are theoretically possible but unproven. PMID:25190312

  6. Health outcomes of children born after IVF/ICSI: a review of current expert opinion and literature.

    PubMed

    Fauser, B C J M; Devroey, P; Diedrich, K; Balaban, B; Bonduelle, M; Delemarre-van de Waal, H A; Estella, C; Ezcurra, D; Geraedts, J P M; Howles, C M; Lerner-Geva, L; Serna, J; Wells, D

    2014-02-01

    The Sixth Evian Annual Reproduction (EVAR) Workshop Group Meeting was held to evaluate the impact of IVF/intracytoplasmic sperm injection on the health of assisted-conception children. Epidemiologists, reproductive endocrinologists, embryologists and geneticists presented data from published literature and ongoing research on the incidence of genetic and epigenetic abnormalities and congenital malformations in assisted-conception versus naturally conceived children to reach a consensus on the reasons for potential differences in outcomes between these two groups. IVF-conceived children have lower birthweights and higher peripheral fat, blood pressure and fasting glucose concentrations than controls. Growth, development and cognitive function in assisted-conception children are similar to controls. The absolute risk of imprinting disorders after assisted reproduction is less than 1%. A direct link between assisted reproduction and health-related outcomes in assisted-conception children could not be established. Women undergoing assisted reproduction are often older, increasing the chances of obtaining abnormal gametes that may cause deviations in outcomes between assisted-conception and naturally conceived children. However, after taking into account these factors, it is not clear to what extent poorer outcomes are due to the assisted reproduction procedures themselves. Large-scale, multicentre, prospective epidemiological studies are needed to investigate this further and to confirm long-term health consequences in assisted-conception children. Assisted reproduction treatment is a general term used to describe methods of achieving pregnancy by artificial means and includes IVF and sperm implantation. The effect of assisted reproduction treatment on the health of children born using these artificial methods is not fully understood. In April 2011, fertility research experts met to give presentations based on research in this area and to look carefully at the evidence

  7. Treating an Established Episode of Delirium in Palliative Care: Expert Opinion and Review of the Current Evidence Base With Recommendations for Future Development

    PubMed Central

    Pereira, José L.; Davis, Daniel H.J.; Currow, David C.; Meagher, David; Rabheru, Kiran; Wright, David; Bruera, Eduardo; Hartwick, Michael; Gagnon, Pierre R.; Gagnon, Bruno; Breitbart, William; Regnier, Laura; Lawlor, Peter G.

    2014-01-01

    Context Delirium is a highly prevalent complication in patients in palliative care settings, especially in the end-of-life context. Objectives To review the current evidence base for treating episodes of delirium in palliative care settings and propose a framework for future development. Methods We combined multidisciplinary input from delirium researchers and other purposely selected stakeholders at an international delirium study planning meeting. This was supplemented by a literature search of multiple databases and relevant reference lists to identify studies regarding therapeutic interventions for delirium. Results The context of delirium management in palliative care is highly variable. The standard management of a delirium episode includes the investigation of precipitating and aggravating factors followed by symptomatic treatment with drug therapy. However, the intensity of this management depends on illness trajectory and goals of care in addition to the local availability of both investigative modalities and therapeutic interventions. Pharmacologically, haloperidol remains the practice standard by consensus for symptomatic control. Dosing schedules are derived from expert opinion and various clinical practice guidelines as evidence-based data from palliative care settings are limited. The commonly used pharmacologic interventions for delirium in this population warrant evaluation in clinical trials to examine dosing and titration regimens, different routes of administration, and safety and efficacy compared with placebo. Conclusion Delirium treatment is multidimensional and includes the identification of precipitating and aggravating factors. For symptomatic management, haloperidol remains the practice standard. Further high-quality collaborative research investigating the appropriate treatment of this complex syndrome is needed. PMID:24480529

  8. Is expert opinion enough? A critical assessment of the evidence for potential impacts of climate change on tick-borne diseases.

    PubMed

    Randolph, Sarah E

    2013-12-01

    Before attributing cause and consequence to climate change, the precise patterns of change must be known. Ground records across much of Europe show a 1-2 °C rise in temperatures in 1989 with no significant rise since then. The timing and spatial uniformity of this pattern, relative to changes in the distribution and incidence of many vector-borne diseases, are sufficient to falsify most simple claims that climate change is the principal cause of disease emergence. Furthermore, age-specific increases in incidence indicate causes other than, or in addition to, climate change. Unfortunately, many public health professionals repeat the received wisdom that climate change is worsening the burden of indirectly transmitted infections; this 'expert opinion' soon becomes consensus dogma divorced from quantitative evidence. The pressing need is to gather appropriate data to test the simple concept that the composition and relative importance of disparate multifactorial factors, commonly integrated within a causal nexus, will inevitably vary with the geographical, cultural, socio-economical, wildlife, etc. context. The greatest impact of warming occurs at the geographical limits of current distributions, where low temperatures limit the hazard of infected vectors. Within core endemic regions, changing exposure of humans to this hazard, through changing socio-economic factors is evidently more important amongst both the poor and the wealthy. PMID:24067445

  9. Evolving strategies for the management of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma: available evidence and expert opinion on the use of transarterial chemoembolization.

    PubMed

    Raoul, J-L; Sangro, B; Forner, A; Mazzaferro, V; Piscaglia, F; Bolondi, L; Lencioni, R

    2011-05-01

    Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is considered the gold standard for treating intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, intermediate-stage HCC includes a heterogeneous population of patients with varying tumour burdens, liver function (Child-Pugh A or B) and disease aetiology. This suggests that not all patients with intermediate-stage HCC will derive similar benefit from TACE, and that some patients may benefit from other treatment options. Results of an extensive literature review into the treatment of unresectable HCC with TACE were combined with our own clinical experience to identify factors that may predict survival after TACE. We also report contraindications to TACE and propose a treatment algorithm for the repetition of TACE. In addition, we have constructed a number of expert opinions that may be used as a guide to help physicians make treatment decisions for their patients with intermediate-stage HCC. The data included in the literature review related almost exclusively to conventional TACE, rather than to TACE with drug-eluting beads. Therefore, the findings and conclusions of the literature review are only applicable to the treatment of HCC with conventional TACE. Treating physicians may want to consider other treatment options for patients with intermediate-stage HCC who are not suitable for or do not respond to TACE. By distinguishing those patients who represent good candidates for TACE from those where little or no benefit might be expected, it may be possible to make better use of current treatment options and improve outcomes for patients. PMID:20724077

  10. The role of levosimendan in acute heart failure complicating acute coronary syndrome: A review and expert consensus opinion.

    PubMed

    Nieminen, Markku S; Buerke, Michael; Cohen-Solál, Alain; Costa, Susana; Édes, István; Erlikh, Alexey; Franco, Fatima; Gibson, Charles; Gorjup, Vojka; Guarracino, Fabio; Gustafsson, Finn; Harjola, Veli-Pekka; Husebye, Trygve; Karason, Kristjan; Katsytadze, Igor; Kaul, Sundeep; Kivikko, Matti; Marenzi, Giancarlo; Masip, Josep; Matskeplishvili, Simon; Mebazaa, Alexandre; Møller, Jacob E; Nessler, Jadwiga; Nessler, Bohdan; Ntalianis, Argyrios; Oliva, Fabrizio; Pichler-Cetin, Emel; Põder, Pentti; Recio-Mayoral, Alejandro; Rex, Steffen; Rokyta, Richard; Strasser, Ruth H; Zima, Endre; Pollesello, Piero

    2016-09-01

    Acute heart failure and/or cardiogenic shock are frequently triggered by ischemic coronary events. Yet, there is a paucity of randomized data on the management of patients with heart failure complicating acute coronary syndrome, as acute coronary syndrome and cardiogenic shock have frequently been defined as exclusion criteria in trials and registries. As a consequence, guideline recommendations are mostly driven by observational studies, even though these patients have a particularly poor prognosis compared to heart failure patients without signs of coronary artery disease. In acute heart failure, and especially in cardiogenic shock related to ischemic conditions, vasopressors and inotropes are used. However, both pathophysiological considerations and available clinical data suggest that these treatments may have disadvantageous effects. The inodilator levosimendan offers potential benefits due to a range of distinct effects including positive inotropy, restoration of ventriculo-arterial coupling, increases in tissue perfusion, and anti-stunning and anti-inflammatory effects. In clinical trials levosimendan improves symptoms, cardiac function, hemodynamics, and end-organ function. Adverse effects are generally less common than with other inotropic and vasoactive therapies, with the notable exception of hypotension. The decision to use levosimendan, in terms of timing and dosing, is influenced by the presence of pulmonary congestion, and blood pressure measurements. Levosimendan should be preferred over adrenergic inotropes as a first line therapy for all ACS-AHF patients who are under beta-blockade and/or when urinary output is insufficient after diuretics. Levosimendan can be used alone or in combination with other inotropic or vasopressor agents, but requires monitoring due to the risk of hypotension. PMID:27232927

  11. Reinforcement in opinion dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Volovik, Daniel

    I consider the evolution and acceptance of a new opinion in a population of unaware agents by using physics-based models of contagion spread. These models rely upon agent-based dynamics, in which an agent changes opinion by interactions with neighbors according to specific interactions. Most of these models have the feature that only a single input is required to change the opinion of an agent --- an agent has no commitment to its current opinion and accepts a new idea at the slightest provocation. These single-input models fail to account for people's confidence in their own beliefs. Thus I study the concept of social reinforcement --- that an agent adopts a new opinion only after multiple reinforcing prompts. Building on single-input models, I introduce two models of opinion spreading that incorporate a social reinforcement mechanism. (a) In the irreversible innovation and in the transient fad spreading models, a development is initially known only to a small portion of the population and subsequently spreads. An individual requires M > 1 interactions with an adopter before adopting the development. The ultimate extent of a transient fad depends critically on the characteristic time the fad keeps the attention of an adopting agent. (b) In the confident voter model, a voter can be in one of two opinion states and can additionally have two levels of commitment to an opinion: confident and vacillating. Upon interacting with an agent of a different opinion, a confident voter becomes less committed, or vacillating, but does not change opinion. However, a vacillating agent changes opinion by interacting with an agent of a different opinion. In two dimensions, the distribution of consensus times is characterized by two distinct times one that scales linearly with N and another that appears to scale as N 3/2. The longer time arises from configurations that fall into long-lived states that consist of multiple single-opinion stripes before consensus is reached.

  12. Opinions on Fresh Produce Food Safety and Quality Standards by Fresh Produce Supply Chain Experts from the Global South and North.

    PubMed

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Van Boxstael, Sigrid; Nanyunja, Jessica; Jordaan, Danie; Luning, Pieternel; Uyttendaele, Mieke

    2015-10-01

    This study describes the results of an on-line survey of fresh produce supply chain experts who work with producers from the Global North (n = 41, 20 countries) and the Global South (n = 63, 29 countries). They expressed their opinion using 1 to 5 Likert scales on several items related to four types of food safety and quality standards and legislation: Codex Alimentarius standards, European Union legislation, national legislation, and private standards. The results reflect the different circumstances under which the Southern and Northern producers operate in relation to the local organization, regulation, and support of the sector; but they also indicate similar challenges, in particular, the challenge of private standards, which were perceived to demand a higher implementation effort than the other three types of standards. Private standards were also strongly perceived to exclude Southern and Northern small- and medium-scale producers from high-value markets, whereas European Union legislation was perceived to strongly exclude, in particular, small- and medium-scale Southern producers. The results further highlight concerns about costly control measures and third-party certification that are required by downstream buyers but that are mostly paid for by upstream suppliers. Food standards are seen in their dual role as a catalyst for implementation of structured food safety management systems on the one hand and as a nontariff barrier to trade on the other hand. The results of the survey also pointed up the advantages of enforcing food safety and food quality standards in terms of knowledge spillover to noncertified activities, increased revenues, and improved food safety of delivered produce. Survey results highlight the importance of technical assistance and support of producers by governments and producer cooperatives or trade associations in the implementation and certification of food standards, along with increased awareness of and training of individuals in

  13. Using Pooled Local Expert Opinions (PLEO) to Discern Patterns in Sightings of Live and Dead Manatees (Trichechus senegalensis, Link 1785) in Lower Sanaga Basin, Cameroon.

    PubMed

    Mayaka, Theodore B; Takoukam Kamla, Aristide; Self-Sullivan, Caryn

    2015-01-01

    We aimed at unveiling patterns in live and dead manatee sightings in the Lower Sanaga Basin, Cameroon. For this purpose, the expert opinions of 133 local fishers were collected during in-person interviews, distilled using categorical data analysis, and checked against scientific literature. The five main results are as follows: manatees were sighted averagely once a week in lakes, rivers, and the coast & estuaries, mostly in group sizes of 2-3; the odds of sighting live manatees (respectively dead manatees) decreased (respectively increased) from inland lakes to estuaries and the coast, via rivers; manatee carcasses were reported in all habitats, albeit more frequently in rivers; a distribution map based on fishers' reports show two manatee concentration areas: Lake Ossa and the Malimba-Mbiako section of River Sanaga; the number of manatees was perceived as increasing despite incidental and directed catches. Thus, our findings corroborate earlier assessments of the Lower Sanaga Basin as being a major manatee conservation area. Additionally, from these results and the literature, we identified three hypotheses about local manatee persistence: deep pools such as lakes offer year round sanctuaries, not just dry-season refugia; seasonality of specific habitat variables determine manatee occurrence patterns; and local variability in habitat encroachment mediate the meta-population dynamics of manatee in the Lower Sanaga Basin. Finally, we examine the implications for data requirements in light of the small ecological scale at which the surveyed fishers ply their trade. Thus, consonant with the Malawi principles for the ecosystem approach to management (www.cbd.int/ecosystem), we recommend collecting data preferably at landscape scale, through a participatory monitoring program that fully integrates scientific and traditional knowledge systems. This program should include, amongst others, a standardised necropsy protocol for collecting mortality and biological data

  14. Using Pooled Local Expert Opinions (PLEO) to Discern Patterns in Sightings of Live and Dead Manatees (Trichechus senegalensis, Link 1785) in Lower Sanaga Basin, Cameroon

    PubMed Central

    Mayaka, Theodore B.; Takoukam Kamla, Aristide; Self-Sullivan, Caryn

    2015-01-01

    We aimed at unveiling patterns in live and dead manatee sightings in the Lower Sanaga Basin, Cameroon. For this purpose, the expert opinions of 133 local fishers were collected during in-person interviews, distilled using categorical data analysis, and checked against scientific literature. The five main results are as follows: manatees were sighted averagely once a week in lakes, rivers, and the coast & estuaries, mostly in group sizes of 2-3; the odds of sighting live manatees (respectively dead manatees) decreased (respectively increased) from inland lakes to estuaries and the coast, via rivers; manatee carcasses were reported in all habitats, albeit more frequently in rivers; a distribution map based on fishers’ reports show two manatee concentration areas: Lake Ossa and the Malimba-Mbiako section of River Sanaga; the number of manatees was perceived as increasing despite incidental and directed catches. Thus, our findings corroborate earlier assessments of the Lower Sanaga Basin as being a major manatee conservation area. Additionally, from these results and the literature, we identified three hypotheses about local manatee persistence: deep pools such as lakes offer year round sanctuaries, not just dry-season refugia; seasonality of specific habitat variables determine manatee occurrence patterns; and local variability in habitat encroachment mediate the meta-population dynamics of manatee in the Lower Sanaga Basin. Finally, we examine the implications for data requirements in light of the small ecological scale at which the surveyed fishers ply their trade. Thus, consonant with the Malawi principles for the ecosystem approach to management (www.cbd.int/ecosystem), we recommend collecting data preferably at landscape scale, through a participatory monitoring program that fully integrates scientific and traditional knowledge systems. This program should include, amongst others, a standardised necropsy protocol for collecting mortality and biological data

  15. Recommendations for Risk Categorization and Prophylaxis of Invasive Fungal Diseases in Hematological Malignancies: A Critical Review of Evidence and Expert Opinion (TEO-4)

    PubMed Central

    Boğa, Can; Bolaman, Zahit; Çağırgan, Seçkin; Karadoğan, İhsan; Özcan, Mehmet Ali; Özkalemkaş, Fahir; Saba, Rabin; Sönmez, Mehmet; Şenol, Esin; Akan, Hamdi; Akova, Murat

    2015-01-01

    This is the last of a series of articles on invasive fungal infections prepared by opinion leaders in Turkey. The aim of these articles is to guide clinicians in managing invasive fungal diseases in hematological malignancies and stem cell transplantation based on the available best evidence in this field. The previous articles summarized the diagnosis and treatment of invasive fungal disease and this article aims to explain the risk categorization and guide the antifungal prophylaxis in invasive fungal disease. PMID:26316478

  16. Test and Measurement Expert Opinions: A Dialogue about Testing Students with Disabilities Out of Level in Large-Scale Assessments. Out-of-Level Testing Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Minnema, Jane; Thurlow, Martha; Bielinski, John

    Two focus groups of test and measurement experts were held to explore the use of out-of-level testing for students with disabilities. The participants (n=17) included state and federal level assessment personnel, test company employees, and university professors. A content analysis of the narrative results indicated that there was no clear…

  17. 32 CFR 516.49 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ..., with or without compensation, opinion or expert testimony either in private litigation or in litigation... personnel will not provide, with or without compensation, opinion or expert testimony concerning official...). An SJA or legal adviser is authorized to deny a request for expert testimony, which decision may...

  18. Referrals for expert psychiatric opinion on dangerous offenders: a survey of instructions regarding defendants liable on conviction to a statutory assessment of dangerousness.

    PubMed

    Bickle, Andy; Stankard, Paul

    2008-07-01

    The Criminal Justice Act 2003 ('the Act') introduced significant changes to the sentencing of violent and sexual offenders. The Act brought in a statutory assessment of dangerousness which includes a statutory assumption of dangerousness ('SAD') for certain repeat offenders. Previously, expert psychiatric witnesses have commented on whether a defendant demonstrated sufficient mental instability to warrant a discretionary life sentence. Under this regime, psychiatric evidence is adduced to the assessment of dangerousness, especially for the purpose of supporting or undermining a rebuttal of the statutory assumption. This study investigated how legal referrers are instructing psychiatrists in cases where on conviction there will be an automatic assumption that the offender is dangerous. The aim was to determine whether the requirements of the new law are being outlined to expert witnesses and how much notice is being given for the production of evidence. All referrals to a medium secure unit were surveyed over two years. Fifty-one referrals concerned defendants liable to the SAD on conviction. The majority of the SAD referrals (40 referrals = 78.4%) included no request to comment on risk or dangerousness. This figure did not fall over time as the Act became established. Only a small minority (5.9%) of instructions directed the psychiatrist to the relevant statutory provisions. On average, adequate notice appeared to be given for the production of evidence (45.6 days). In the authors' view, legal referrers should make more explicit the requirements of psychiatric evidence in such cases. New legislation currently before Parliament would amend further the sentencing of such offenders, but there would remain a statutory assessment of dangerousness as the basis of sentencing violent and sexual offenders. Psychiatrists wishing to act as expert witnesses should be aware of the contents of the statutory assessment and be prepared to liaise with legal counsel to clarify

  19. 14th St. Gallen International Breast Cancer Conference 2015: Evidence, Controversies, Consensus – Primary Therapy of Early Breast Cancer: Opinions Expressed by German Experts

    PubMed Central

    Jackisch, Christian; Harbeck, Nadia; Huober, Jens; von Minckwitz, Gunter; Gerber, Bernd; Kreipe, Hans-Heinrich; Liedtke, Cornelia; Marschner, Norbert; Möbus, Volker; Scheithauer, Heike; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Thomssen, Christoph; Loibl, Sibylle; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Blohmer, Jens-Uwe; Costa, Serban-Dan; Decker, Thomas; Diel, Ingo; Fasching, Peter A.; Fehm, Tanja; Janni, Wolfgang; Lück, Hans-Joachim; Maass, Nicolai; Scharl, Anton; Untch, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Summary The key topics of this year's 14th St. Gallen Consensus Conference on the diagnosis and therapy of primary breast cancer were again questions about breast surgery and axillary surgery, radio-oncology and systemic therapy options in consideration of tumor biology, and the clinical application of multigene assays. This year, the consensus conference took place in Vienna. From a German perspective, it makes sense to substantiate the results of the vote of the international panel representing 19 countries in light of the updated national therapy recommendations of the AGO (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Gynäkologische Onkologie). Therefore, 14 German breast cancer experts, 3 of whom are members of the International St. Gallen Panel, have commented on the voting results of the St. Gallen Consensus Conference 2015 in relation to clinical routine in Germany. PMID:26557827

  20. Anisotropic opinion dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neirotti, Juan

    2016-07-01

    We consider the process of opinion formation in a society of interacting agents, where there is a set B of socially accepted rules. In this scenario, we observed that agents, represented by simple feed-forward, adaptive neural networks, may have a conservative attitude (mostly in agreement with B ) or liberal attitude (mostly in agreement with neighboring agents) depending on how much their opinions are influenced by their peers. The topology of the network representing the interaction of the society's members is determined by a graph, where the agents' properties are defined over the vertexes and the interagent interactions are defined over the bonds. The adaptability of the agents allows us to model the formation of opinions as an online learning process, where agents learn continuously as new information becomes available to the whole society (online learning). Through the application of statistical mechanics techniques we deduced a set of differential equations describing the dynamics of the system. We observed that by slowly varying the average peer influence in such a way that the agents attitude changes from conservative to liberal and back, the average social opinion develops a hysteresis cycle. Such hysteretic behavior disappears when the variance of the social influence distribution is large enough. In all the cases studied, the change from conservative to liberal behavior is characterized by the emergence of conservative clusters, i.e., a closed knitted set of society members that follow a leader who agrees with the social status quo when the rule B is challenged.

  1. Anisotropic opinion dynamics.

    PubMed

    Neirotti, Juan

    2016-07-01

    We consider the process of opinion formation in a society of interacting agents, where there is a set B of socially accepted rules. In this scenario, we observed that agents, represented by simple feed-forward, adaptive neural networks, may have a conservative attitude (mostly in agreement with B) or liberal attitude (mostly in agreement with neighboring agents) depending on how much their opinions are influenced by their peers. The topology of the network representing the interaction of the society's members is determined by a graph, where the agents' properties are defined over the vertexes and the interagent interactions are defined over the bonds. The adaptability of the agents allows us to model the formation of opinions as an online learning process, where agents learn continuously as new information becomes available to the whole society (online learning). Through the application of statistical mechanics techniques we deduced a set of differential equations describing the dynamics of the system. We observed that by slowly varying the average peer influence in such a way that the agents attitude changes from conservative to liberal and back, the average social opinion develops a hysteresis cycle. Such hysteretic behavior disappears when the variance of the social influence distribution is large enough. In all the cases studied, the change from conservative to liberal behavior is characterized by the emergence of conservative clusters, i.e., a closed knitted set of society members that follow a leader who agrees with the social status quo when the rule B is challenged. PMID:27575150

  2. Colleagues as Change Agents: How Department Networks and Opinion Leaders Influence Teaching at a Single Research University

    PubMed Central

    Andrews, T. C.; Conaway, E. P.; Zhao, J.; Dolan, E. L.

    2016-01-01

    Relationships with colleagues have the potential to be a source of support for faculty to make meaningful change in how they teach, but the impact of these relationships is poorly understood. We used a mixed-methods approach to investigate the characteristics of faculty who provide colleagues with teaching resources and facilitate change in teaching, how faculty influence one another. Our exploratory investigation was informed by social network theory and research on the impact of opinion leaders within organizations. We used surveys and interviews to examine collegial interactions about undergraduate teaching in life sciences departments at one research university. Each department included discipline-based education researchers (DBERs). Quantitative and qualitative analyses indicate that DBERs promote changes in teaching to a greater degree than other departmental colleagues. The influence of DBERs derives, at least partly, from a perception that they have unique professional expertise in education. DBERs facilitated change through coteaching, offering ready and approachable access to education research, and providing teaching training and mentoring. Faculty who had participated in a team based–teaching professional development program were also credited with providing more support for teaching than nonparticipants. Further research will be necessary to determine whether these results generalize beyond the studied institution. PMID:27174582

  3. Colleagues as Change Agents: How Department Networks and Opinion Leaders Influence Teaching at a Single Research University.

    PubMed

    Andrews, T C; Conaway, E P; Zhao, J; Dolan, E L

    2016-01-01

    Relationships with colleagues have the potential to be a source of support for faculty to make meaningful change in how they teach, but the impact of these relationships is poorly understood. We used a mixed-methods approach to investigate the characteristics of faculty who provide colleagues with teaching resources and facilitate change in teaching, how faculty influence one another. Our exploratory investigation was informed by social network theory and research on the impact of opinion leaders within organizations. We used surveys and interviews to examine collegial interactions about undergraduate teaching in life sciences departments at one research university. Each department included discipline-based education researchers (DBERs). Quantitative and qualitative analyses indicate that DBERs promote changes in teaching to a greater degree than other departmental colleagues. The influence of DBERs derives, at least partly, from a perception that they have unique professional expertise in education. DBERs facilitated change through coteaching, offering ready and approachable access to education research, and providing teaching training and mentoring. Faculty who had participated in a team based-teaching professional development program were also credited with providing more support for teaching than nonparticipants. Further research will be necessary to determine whether these results generalize beyond the studied institution. PMID:27174582

  4. The Role of mTOR Inhibitors in the Treatment of Patients with Tuberous Sclerosis Complex: Evidence-based and Expert Opinions.

    PubMed

    Curatolo, Paolo; Bjørnvold, Marit; Dill, Patricia E; Ferreira, José Carlos; Feucht, Martha; Hertzberg, Christoph; Jansen, Anna; Jóźwiak, Sergiusz; Kingswood, J Christopher; Kotulska, Katarzyna; Macaya, Alfons; Moavero, Romina; Nabbout, Rima; Zonnenberg, Bernard A

    2016-04-01

    Tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) is a genetic disorder arising from mutations in the TSC1 or TSC2 genes. The resulting over-activation of the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) signalling pathway leaves patients with TSC susceptible to the growth of non-malignant tumours in multiple organs. Previously, surgery was the main therapeutic option for TSC. However, pharmacological therapy with mTOR inhibitors such as everolimus and sirolimus is now emerging as an alternate approach. Everolimus and sirolimus have already been shown to be effective in treating subependymal giant cell astrocytoma (SEGA) and renal angiomyolipoma (AML), and everolimus is currently being evaluated in treating TSC-related epilepsy. In November 2013 a group of European experts convened to discuss the current options and practical considerations for treating various manifestations of TSC. This article provides evidence-based recommendations for the treatment of SEGA, TSC-related epilepsy and renal AML, with a focus on where mTOR inhibitor therapy may be considered alongside other treatment options. Safety considerations regarding mTOR inhibitor therapy are also reviewed. With evidence of beneficial effects in neurological and non-neurological TSC manifestations, mTOR inhibitors may represent a systemic treatment for TSC. PMID:26927950

  5. Regulatory acceptance and use of 3R models for pharmaceuticals and chemicals: expert opinions on the state of affairs and the way forward.

    PubMed

    Schiffelers, Marie-Jeanne W A; Blaauboer, Bas J; Bakker, Wieger E; Beken, Sonja; Hendriksen, Coenraad F M; Koëter, Herman B W M; Krul, Cyrille

    2014-06-01

    Pharmaceuticals and chemicals are subjected to regulatory safety testing accounting for approximately 25% of laboratory animal use in Europe. This testing meets various objections and has led to the development of a range of 3R models to Replace, Reduce or Refine the animal models. However, these models must overcome many barriers before being accepted for regulatory risk management purposes. This paper describes the barriers and drivers and options to optimize this acceptance process as identified by two expert panels, one on pharmaceuticals and one on chemicals. To untangle the complex acceptance process, the multilevel perspective on technology transitions is applied. This perspective defines influences at the micro-, meso- and macro level which need alignment to induce regulatory acceptance of a 3R model. This paper displays that there are many similar mechanisms within both sectors that prevent 3R models from becoming accepted for regulatory risk assessment and management. Shared barriers include the uncertainty about the value of the new 3R models (micro level), the lack of harmonization of regulatory requirements and acceptance criteria (meso level) and the high levels of risk aversion (macro level). In optimizing the process commitment, communication, cooperation and coordination are identified as critical drivers. PMID:24534000

  6. An agent-based macroeconomic model with interacting firms, socio-economic opinion formation and optimistic/pessimistic sales expectations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westerhoff, Frank

    2010-07-01

    We propose a simple agent-based macroeconomic model in which firms hold heterogeneous sales expectations. A firm may either optimistically expect an increase in its sales or pessimistically expect the opposite. Whether a given firm is optimistic or pessimistic depends on macroeconomic conditions and the average mood prevailing within its social/local neighborhood. For instance, the probability of a firm taking an optimistic view increases not only during a boom but also with the number of its optimistic neighbors. We show that such an economy may give rise to co-evolving dynamics between the business cycle and the firms' average sentiment.

  7. Public authority control strategy for opinion evolution in social networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Xi; Xiong, Xi; Zhang, Minghong; Li, Wei

    2016-08-01

    This paper addresses the need to deal with and control public opinion and rumors. Existing strategies to control public opinion include degree, random, and adaptive bridge control strategies. In this paper, we use the HK model to present a public opinion control strategy based on public authority (PA). This means utilizing the influence of expert or high authority individuals whose opinions we control to obtain the optimum effect in the shortest time possible and thus reach a consensus of public opinion. Public authority (PA) is only influenced by individuals' attributes (age, economic status, and education level) and not their degree distribution; hence, in this paper, we assume that PA complies with two types of public authority distribution (normal and power-law). According to the proposed control strategy, our experiment is based on random, degree, and public authority control strategies in three different social networks (small-world, scale-free, and random) and we compare and analyze the strategies in terms of convergence time (T), final number of controlled agents (C), and comprehensive efficiency (E). We find that different network topologies and the distribution of the PA in the network can influence the final controlling effect. While the effect of PA strategy differs in different network topology structures, all structures achieve comprehensive efficiency with any kind of public authority distribution in any network. Our findings are consistent with several current sociological phenomena and show that in the process of public opinion/rumor control, considerable attention should be paid to high authority individuals.

  8. Public authority control strategy for opinion evolution in social networks.

    PubMed

    Chen, Xi; Xiong, Xi; Zhang, Minghong; Li, Wei

    2016-08-01

    This paper addresses the need to deal with and control public opinion and rumors. Existing strategies to control public opinion include degree, random, and adaptive bridge control strategies. In this paper, we use the HK model to present a public opinion control strategy based on public authority (PA). This means utilizing the influence of expert or high authority individuals whose opinions we control to obtain the optimum effect in the shortest time possible and thus reach a consensus of public opinion. Public authority (PA) is only influenced by individuals' attributes (age, economic status, and education level) and not their degree distribution; hence, in this paper, we assume that PA complies with two types of public authority distribution (normal and power-law). According to the proposed control strategy, our experiment is based on random, degree, and public authority control strategies in three different social networks (small-world, scale-free, and random) and we compare and analyze the strategies in terms of convergence time (T), final number of controlled agents (C), and comprehensive efficiency (E). We find that different network topologies and the distribution of the PA in the network can influence the final controlling effect. While the effect of PA strategy differs in different network topology structures, all structures achieve comprehensive efficiency with any kind of public authority distribution in any network. Our findings are consistent with several current sociological phenomena and show that in the process of public opinion/rumor control, considerable attention should be paid to high authority individuals. PMID:27586601

  9. Ridiculous statements by mental health experts.

    PubMed

    Bernet, William

    2011-07-01

    When mental health experts express their opinions in testimony, reports, and articles in professional literature, it is expected that their statements will accurately reflect the current state of knowledge. Experts may disagree about the data that they collected. In some cases, however, disagreement occurs because an expert has employed a methodology that is far outside usual procedures or simply disregarded objective facts. When that occurs, the expert's opinions may be considered ridiculous. The author presents examples of ridiculous statements by mental health experts and provides suggestions for how a forensic practitioner might address ridiculous statements by mental health experts. PMID:21683920

  10. 29 CFR 18.704 - Opinion on ultimate issue.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Opinion on ultimate issue. 18.704 Section 18.704 Labor... OFFICE OF ADMINISTRATIVE LAW JUDGES Rules of Evidence Opinions and Expert Testimony § 18.704 Opinion on ultimate issue. Testimony in the form of an opinion or inference otherwise admissible is not...

  11. 29 CFR 18.704 - Opinion on ultimate issue.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Opinion on ultimate issue. 18.704 Section 18.704 Labor... OFFICE OF ADMINISTRATIVE LAW JUDGES Rules of Evidence Opinions and Expert Testimony § 18.704 Opinion on ultimate issue. Testimony in the form of an opinion or inference otherwise admissible is not...

  12. 29 CFR 18.704 - Opinion on ultimate issue.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Opinion on ultimate issue. 18.704 Section 18.704 Labor... OFFICE OF ADMINISTRATIVE LAW JUDGES Rules of Evidence Opinions and Expert Testimony § 18.704 Opinion on ultimate issue. Testimony in the form of an opinion or inference otherwise admissible is not...

  13. [Aspects of expert opinions of avulsion fractures].

    PubMed

    Schröter, F

    2016-03-01

    The apophyses as secondary ossification centers are connected with the bone by cartilage. During the growth phase of puberty, the apophyseal plate is a mechanical weak spot. Especially, apophyses in the hip and pelvic area are exposed to considerable tensile and sheer stresses due to the strong muscles which are inserted here. The frequency of injuries to the apophyses correlates with the extent of sporting activities. For athletes participating in "Youth Train for the Olympics", this is the most common injury of all. Most often, the apophysis of the rectus femoris muscle is affected at the anterior inferior iliac spine. In adults, after complete ossification of the apophyseal plate such injuries are rare. However, in a very unusual mechanism of injury with maximum forced hip flexion and simultaneous maximum knee extension, avulsions of the ischial tuberosity are observed in adults. During the causality test-especially in the legal area of statutory accident insurance-the question is always whether the alleged course of events has to be regarded as a legally significant (partial) cause or if a longer period of time has been involved, so that the resulting morbid apophysis detachment was predominately due to fate, in which the alleged event must be interpreted as legally immaterial. PMID:26924516

  14. Measuring Iranian women's sexual behaviors: Expert opinion.

    PubMed

    Ghorashi, Zohreh; Merghati-Khoei, Effat; Yousefy, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    The cultural compatibility of sexually related instruments is problematic because the contexts from which the concepts and meanings were extracted may be significantly different from related contexts in a different society. This paper describes the instruments that have been used to assess sexual behaviors, primarily in Western contexts. Then, based on the instruments' working definition of 'sexual behavior' and their theoretical frameworks, we will (1) discuss the applicability or cultural compatibility of existing instruments targeting women's sexual behaviors within an Iranian context, and (2) suggest criteria for sexually related tools applicable in Iranian settings. Iranian women's sexual scripts may compromise the existing instruments' compatibility. Suggested criteria are as follows: understanding, language of sexuality, ethics and morality. Therefore, developing a culturally comprehensive measure that can adequately examine Iranian women's sexual behaviors is needed. PMID:25250346

  15. Measuring Iranian women's sexual behaviors: Expert opinion

    PubMed Central

    Ghorashi, Zohreh; Merghati-Khoei, Effat; Yousefy, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    The cultural compatibility of sexually related instruments is problematic because the contexts from which the concepts and meanings were extracted may be significantly different from related contexts in a different society. This paper describes the instruments that have been used to assess sexual behaviors, primarily in Western contexts. Then, based on the instruments’ working definition of ‘sexual behavior’ and their theoretical frameworks, we will (1) discuss the applicability or cultural compatibility of existing instruments targeting women's sexual behaviors within an Iranian context, and (2) suggest criteria for sexually related tools applicable in Iranian settings. Iranian women's sexual scripts may compromise the existing instruments’ compatibility. Suggested criteria are as follows: understanding, language of sexuality, ethics and morality. Therefore, developing a culturally comprehensive measure that can adequately examine Iranian women's sexual behaviors is needed. PMID:25250346

  16. Intelligent agent support for automated radiology exam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shang, Yi; Popescu, Mihail

    2000-10-01

    A difficult problem in automatic medical image understanding is that for every image type such as x-ray and every body organ such as heart, there exist specific solutions that do not allow for generalization. Just collecting all the specific solutions will not achieve the vision of a computerized physician. To address this problem, we propose an intelligent agent approach that is based on agent-oriented programming is that it combines the benefits of object-oriented programming and expert system. For radiology image understanding, we present a multi- agent system that is composed of two major types of intelligent agents: radiologist agents and patient agents. A patient agent asks for multiple opinions from radiologists agents in interpreting a given set of images and then integrates the opinions. A radiologist agent decomposes the image recognition task into smaller problems that are solved collectively by multiple intelligent sub-agents. Finally, we present a preliminary implementation and running examples of the multi-agent system.

  17. School Construction Management: Expert Administrators Speak.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fickes, Michael

    2001-01-01

    Presents expert opinion on school construction management communication concerning educational needs, obtaining consensus among diverse groups, and envisioning what schools must offer in the future. Why furniture issues are also important is highlighted. (GR)

  18. The dynamics of opinion in hierarchical organizations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laguna, M. F.; Risau Gusman, S.; Abramson, G.; Gonçalves, S.; Iglesias, J. R.

    2005-06-01

    We study the mutual influence of authority and persuasion in the flow of opinions. We describe a simple model with no social mobility, where each agent belongs to a class in the hierarchy and has also a persuasion capability. Agents use the force of its persuasion to propagate their opinions; however a high-rank agent can also use its authority to impose its opinion on other ones. The model is studied analytically within a mean field approximation and by means of numerical simulations. In the case of a three authority level hierarchy the agreement between the two approaches is excellent. We obtain a phase diagram identifying the relative frequency of the prevailing opinions, and find that the stratum where the dominant opinion arises from is strongly dependent on the relative population of each hierarchy level. The time evolution shows that conflicting opinions polarize after a short transient.

  19. Landmark opinions

    SciTech Connect

    Julian Levy

    2007-08-15

    On April 2, 2007, the U.S. Supreme Court issued two landmark opinions affecting the regulation of air quality in the United States. The first addressed one facet of what constitutes a modification under New Source Review (NSR) and the second addressed the issue of global climate change, specifically carbon dioxide emissions. For this month's issue, EM invited five leaders in the field of air quality to give their perspectives on these court opinions to gauge what they might mean for future air quality regulations. Titles of the five features are: Two landmark interpretations of the Clean Air Act: EPA authority to regulate greenhouse gases and increases in annual emissions trigger NSR (pp 6-10); Court examines EPA's interpretation of the Clean Air Act (pp 11,13); New Jersey: a state's perspective (pp 14-15); Supreme Court delivers historic environmental rulings (pp 17-18); and an industry perspective on the Supreme Court rulings (pp 20-21).

  20. Filtering information from human experts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendel, Max B.; Sheridan, Thomas B.

    1989-01-01

    The authors propose a model, or filter, for debiasing opinions from multiple experts and combining them into a single consistent estimate of some variable of interest. A distinguishing feature of the approach consists of making the calibration of experts an integral part of filtering. This enables the filter to learn from previous experience with the experts. The theoretical development takes a Bayesian perspective, using de Finetti's (1964) notion of exchangeability. Experimental results with a preliminary computer implementation of the filter show that its estimates are better than those from comparable filters that do not involve calibration.

  1. Clinical profiles of moderate and severe Crohn’s disease patients and use of anti-tumor necrosis factor agents: Greek expert consensus guidelines

    PubMed Central

    Mantzaris, Gerassimos J.; Viazis, Nikos; Polymeros, Dimitris; Papamichael, Konstantinos; Bamias, George; Koutroubakis, Ioannis E.

    2015-01-01

    Crohn’s disease (CD) is a chronic idiopathic inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) which affects any site of the gastrointestinal tract and occasionally extraintestinal organs. The natural history of CD varies remarkably but a considerable proportion of patients develop complications leading to hospitalizations and surgeries, impaired quality of life, and disability. In these patients, effective medical therapy should aim beyond control of clinical symptoms to include induction and maintenance of steroid-free clinical and serological remission and mucosal healing, as this has shown to reduce complications, hospitalizations and surgeries, and to decrease the risk of colorectal cancer, at least in the short term. This therapeutic goal can be achieved in a considerable proportion of patients with anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α agents if applied early in the disease course. Clinical recommendations from a panel of Greek IBD experts are herein provided, regarding the clinical profiles and the use of anti-TNF-α therapy in patients with moderate and severe CD, based on literature review and personal experience. The objectives of this advisory workshop were to define the profiles of patients with moderate and severe CD using routine clinical and laboratory parameters, as well as the clinical profiles of patients with moderate CD, severe CD, perianal CD, and/or extra-intestinal manifestations, who are candidates for biologic therapies. Emphasis was given on patients with newly diagnosed CD. The proposed recommendations may provide a useful and practical approach for improving therapeutic strategies with anti-TNF-α in patients with active moderate and severe CD. PMID:26424173

  2. Clinical profiles of moderate and severe Crohn's disease patients and use of anti-tumor necrosis factor agents: Greek expert consensus guidelines.

    PubMed

    Mantzaris, Gerassimos J; Viazis, Nikos; Polymeros, Dimitris; Papamichael, Konstantinos; Bamias, George; Koutroubakis, Ioannis E

    2015-01-01

    Crohn's disease (CD) is a chronic idiopathic inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) which affects any site of the gastrointestinal tract and occasionally extraintestinal organs. The natural history of CD varies remarkably but a considerable proportion of patients develop complications leading to hospitalizations and surgeries, impaired quality of life, and disability. In these patients, effective medical therapy should aim beyond control of clinical symptoms to include induction and maintenance of steroid-free clinical and serological remission and mucosal healing, as this has shown to reduce complications, hospitalizations and surgeries, and to decrease the risk of colorectal cancer, at least in the short term. This therapeutic goal can be achieved in a considerable proportion of patients with anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α agents if applied early in the disease course. Clinical recommendations from a panel of Greek IBD experts are herein provided, regarding the clinical profiles and the use of anti-TNF-α therapy in patients with moderate and severe CD, based on literature review and personal experience. The objectives of this advisory workshop were to define the profiles of patients with moderate and severe CD using routine clinical and laboratory parameters, as well as the clinical profiles of patients with moderate CD, severe CD, perianal CD, and/or extra-intestinal manifestations, who are candidates for biologic therapies. Emphasis was given on patients with newly diagnosed CD. The proposed recommendations may provide a useful and practical approach for improving therapeutic strategies with anti-TNF-α in patients with active moderate and severe CD. PMID:26424173

  3. Alternatives to the use of antimicrobial agents in pig production: A multi-country expert-ranking of perceived effectiveness, feasibility and return on investment.

    PubMed

    Postma, Merel; Stärk, Katharina D C; Sjölund, Marie; Backhans, Annette; Beilage, Elisabeth Grosse; Lösken, Svenja; Belloc, Catherine; Collineau, Lucie; Iten, Denise; Visschers, Vivianne; Nielsen, Elisabeth O; Dewulf, Jeroen

    2015-03-01

    Nineteen alternatives to antimicrobial agents were ranked on perceived effectiveness, feasibility and return on investment (ROI) from 0 (not effective, not feasible, no ROI) to 10 (fully effective, completely feasible, maximum ROI) by 111 pig health experts from Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland. The top 5 measures in terms of perceived effectiveness were (1) improved internal biosecurity, (2) improved external biosecurity, (3) improved climate/environmental conditions, (4) high health/Specific Pathogen Free/disease eradication and (5) increased vaccination. The top 5 measures in terms of perceived feasibility were (1) increased vaccination, (2) increased use of anti-inflammatory products, (3) improved water quality, (4) feed quality/optimization and (5) use of zinc/metals. The top 5 measures in terms of perceived ROI were (1) improved internal biosecurity, (2) zinc/metals, (3) diagnostics/action plan, (4) feed quality/optimization and (5) climate/environmental improvements. Univariate linear regression showed that veterinary practitioners rank internal biosecurity, vaccination, use of zinc/metals, feed quality optimization and climate/environmental on average highest, while researchers and professors focused more on increased use of diagnostics and action plans. Financial incentives/penalties ranked low in all countries. Belgian respondents ranked feed quality significantly lower compared to the German respondents while reduction of stocking density was ranked higher in Belgium compared to Denmark. Categorical Principal Component Analysis applied to the average ranking supported the finding that veterinary practitioners had a preference for more practical, common and already known alternatives. The results showed that improvements in biosecurity, increased use of vaccination, use of zinc/metals, feed quality improvement and regular diagnostic testing combined with a clear action plan were perceived to be the most promising alternatives to

  4. Collective opinion formation on fluctuating networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ngampruetikorn, Vudtiwat; Stephens, Greg

    Thanks to the advent of online social networks, not only are we more connected than ever but we are also able to design and maintain our own social networks. An insight into this phenomenon will be key to understanding modern societies. To this end, we argue that active network maintenance exposes individuals to selective exposure (preference for agreeing information sources) and we explore how this could affect the structure of social networks and collective opinion formation. More technically, we investigate opinion dynamics on a complex network with fast stochastic rewiring. We show that selective exposure while inducing segregation of agents with different opinions, stabilises consensus state regardless of opinion update rules. We argue further that selective exposure can lead to a shorter time to consensus. The time to consensus has non-trivial dependence on the magnitude of selective exposure. Moreover, we find for some opinion updating rules, selective exposure can increase the lifetime of opinion segregation (polarisation of opinions).

  5. How expert advice influences decision making.

    PubMed

    Meshi, Dar; Biele, Guido; Korn, Christoph W; Heekeren, Hauke R

    2012-01-01

    People often use expert advice when making decisions in our society, but how we are influenced by this advice has yet to be understood. To address this, using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we provided expert and novice advice to participants during an estimation task. Participants reported that they valued expert advice more than novice advice, and activity in the ventral striatum correlated with this valuation, even before decisions with the advice were made. When using advice, participants compared their initial opinion to their advisor's opinion. This comparison, termed the "opinion difference", influenced advice utilization and was represented in reward-sensitive brain regions. Finally, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex integrated both the size of the opinion difference and the advisor's level of expertise, and average activity in this area correlated with mean advice utilization across participants. Taken together, these findings provide neural evidence for how advice engenders behavioral change during the decision-making process. PMID:23185425

  6. How Expert Advice Influences Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Meshi, Dar; Biele, Guido; Korn, Christoph W.; Heekeren, Hauke R.

    2012-01-01

    People often use expert advice when making decisions in our society, but how we are influenced by this advice has yet to be understood. To address this, using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we provided expert and novice advice to participants during an estimation task. Participants reported that they valued expert advice more than novice advice, and activity in the ventral striatum correlated with this valuation, even before decisions with the advice were made. When using advice, participants compared their initial opinion to their advisor’s opinion. This comparison, termed the “opinion difference”, influenced advice utilization and was represented in reward-sensitive brain regions. Finally, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex integrated both the size of the opinion difference and the advisor’s level of expertise, and average activity in this area correlated with mean advice utilization across participants. Taken together, these findings provide neural evidence for how advice engenders behavioral change during the decision-making process. PMID:23185425

  7. Expert evidence accountability: new developments and challenges.

    PubMed

    Freckelton, Ian

    2011-12-01

    A series of developments in relation to the accountability of expert witnesses and the admissibility of their opinions is taking place. This extends to encroachments in the United Kingdom on expert witness immunity, the imposition of disciplinary liability for registered health practitioners in Australia and the United Kingdom, and recommendations from the United Kingdom Law Commission for a systematised procedure for reliability determination as a prerequisite for admissibility rulings. This combination of measures is indicative of international concern about the contemporary role of expert witnesses. It highlights the need for both empirical information about whether the anecdotal and experiential concerns about expert evidence are well-founded and for the provision of better and clearer guidance to experts and litigators alike about the underpinnings and methodologies that are permissible for admissible and probative expert opinions. PMID:22319996

  8. Prediction of collective opinion in consensus formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hou, Lei; Liu, Jianguo; Pan, Xue; Song, Wen-Jun; Li, Xu-Dong

    2014-12-01

    In the consensus formation dynamics, the effect of leaders and interventions have been widely studied for it has many applications such as in politics and commerce. However, the problem is how to know if it is necessary for one to make an intervention. In this paper, we theoretically propose a method for predicting the tendency and final state of collective opinion. By giving each agent a conviction ci which measures the ability to insist on his opinion, we present an opinion formation model in which agents with high convictions naturally show up properties of the opinion leaders. Results reveal that, although each agent initially gets an opinion evenly distributed in the range [-1, 1], the collective opinion of the steady-state may deviate to the positive or negative direction because of the initial bias of the leaders' opinions. We further get the correlation coefficient of the linear relationship between the collective opinion and the initial bias according to both the experimental and theoretical analysis. Thus, we could predict the final state at the very beginning of the dynamic only if we get the opinions of a small portion of the population. The prediction would afford us more time and opportunities to make reactions and interventions.

  9. Expert Biogeographers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bednarski, Marsha

    2006-01-01

    This article describes an alternative way of teaching about biomes by having students become expert biogeographers. In order to become experts students need to first find out what a biogeographer does. Doing an online search lets students find out for themselves what the responsibilities are of people who work in this field. A good place to visit…

  10. Opinion formation on social media: an empirical approach.

    PubMed

    Xiong, Fei; Liu, Yun

    2014-03-01

    Opinion exchange models aim to describe the process of public opinion formation, seeking to uncover the intrinsic mechanism in social systems; however, the model results are seldom empirically justified using large-scale actual data. Online social media provide an abundance of data on opinion interaction, but the question of whether opinion models are suitable for characterizing opinion formation on social media still requires exploration. We collect a large amount of user interaction information from an actual social network, i.e., Twitter, and analyze the dynamic sentiments of users about different topics to investigate realistic opinion evolution. We find two nontrivial results from these data. First, public opinion often evolves to an ordered state in which one opinion predominates, but not to complete consensus. Second, agents are reluctant to change their opinions, and the distribution of the number of individual opinion changes follows a power law. Then, we suggest a model in which agents take external actions to express their internal opinions according to their activity. Conversely, individual actions can influence the activity and opinions of neighbors. The probability that an agent changes its opinion depends nonlinearly on the fraction of opponents who have taken an action. Simulation results show user action patterns and the evolution of public opinion in the model coincide with the empirical data. For different nonlinear parameters, the system may approach different regimes. A large decay in individual activity slows down the dynamics, but causes more ordering in the system. PMID:24697392

  11. Opinion formation on social media: An empirical approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiong, Fei; Liu, Yun

    2014-03-01

    Opinion exchange models aim to describe the process of public opinion formation, seeking to uncover the intrinsic mechanism in social systems; however, the model results are seldom empirically justified using large-scale actual data. Online social media provide an abundance of data on opinion interaction, but the question of whether opinion models are suitable for characterizing opinion formation on social media still requires exploration. We collect a large amount of user interaction information from an actual social network, i.e., Twitter, and analyze the dynamic sentiments of users about different topics to investigate realistic opinion evolution. We find two nontrivial results from these data. First, public opinion often evolves to an ordered state in which one opinion predominates, but not to complete consensus. Second, agents are reluctant to change their opinions, and the distribution of the number of individual opinion changes follows a power law. Then, we suggest a model in which agents take external actions to express their internal opinions according to their activity. Conversely, individual actions can influence the activity and opinions of neighbors. The probability that an agent changes its opinion depends nonlinearly on the fraction of opponents who have taken an action. Simulation results show user action patterns and the evolution of public opinion in the model coincide with the empirical data. For different nonlinear parameters, the system may approach different regimes. A large decay in individual activity slows down the dynamics, but causes more ordering in the system.

  12. Future Challenges in Higher Education--Bologna Experts' Community Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yemini, Miri

    2012-01-01

    This work presents results from systematic analysis of the challenges for the future of higher education in European and neighboring countries as it was extracted from the Bologna experts and Higher Education Reform experts' opinions. Opinions of more than 100 experts from 35 countries were documented and analyzed. Significant differences in the…

  13. Opinion Dynamics with Confirmation Bias

    PubMed Central

    Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Galstyan, Aram

    2014-01-01

    Background Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical research of this phenomenon has mainly focused on its economic implications possibly missing its potential connections with broader notions of cognitive science. Methodology/Principal Findings We formulate a (non-Bayesian) model for revising subjective probabilistic opinion of a confirmationally-biased agent in the light of a persuasive opinion. The revision rule ensures that the agent does not react to persuasion that is either far from his current opinion or coincides with it. We demonstrate that the model accounts for the basic phenomenology of the social judgment theory, and allows to study various phenomena such as cognitive dissonance and boomerang effect. The model also displays the order of presentation effect–when consecutively exposed to two opinions, the preference is given to the last opinion (recency) or the first opinion (primacy) –and relates recency to confirmation bias. Finally, we study the model in the case of repeated persuasion and analyze its convergence properties. Conclusions The standard Bayesian approach to probabilistic opinion revision is inadequate for describing the observed phenomenology of persuasion process. The simple non-Bayesian model proposed here does agree with this phenomenology and is capable of reproducing a spectrum of effects observed in psychology: primacy-recency phenomenon, boomerang effect and cognitive dissonance. We point out several limitations of the model that should motivate its future development. PMID:25007078

  14. Expert Seeker

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fernandez, Becerra

    2003-01-01

    Expert Seeker is a computer program of the knowledge-management-system (KMS) type that falls within the category of expertise-locator systems. The main goal of the KMS system implemented by Expert Seeker is to organize and distribute knowledge of who are the domain experts within and without a given institution, company, or other organization. The intent in developing this KMS was to enable the re-use of organizational knowledge and provide a methodology for querying existing information (including structured, semistructured, and unstructured information) in a way that could help identify organizational experts. More specifically, Expert Seeker was developed to make it possible, by use of an intranet, to do any or all of the following: Assist an employee in identifying who has the skills needed for specific projects and to determine whether the experts so identified are available. Assist managers in identifying employees who may need training opportunities. Assist managers in determining what expertise is lost when employees retire or otherwise leave. Facilitate the development of new ways of identifying opportunities for innovation and minimization of duplicated efforts. Assist employees in achieving competitive advantages through the application of knowledge-management concepts and related systems. Assist external organizations in requesting speakers for specific engagements or determining from whom they might be able to request help via electronic mail. Help foster an environment of collaboration for rapid development in today's environment, in which it is increasingly necessary to assemble teams of experts from government, universities, research laboratories, and industries, to quickly solve problems anytime, anywhere. Make experts more visible. Provide a central repository of information about employees, including information that, heretofore, has typically not been captured by the human-resources systems (e.g., information about past projects, patents, or

  15. 29 CFR 18.702 - Testimony by experts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Testimony by experts. 18.702 Section 18.702 Labor Office of... OF ADMINISTRATIVE LAW JUDGES Rules of Evidence Opinions and Expert Testimony § 18.702 Testimony by... to understand the evidence or to determine a fact in issue, a witness qualified as an expert...

  16. The Same Middle East Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) yet Different Outbreak Patterns and Public Health Impacts on the Far East Expert Opinion from the Rapid Response Team of the Republic of Korea

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    A Middle East Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak, the largest outbreak outside the Middle East in 2012, occurred in the Republic of Korea and resulted in a large number of cases, with 186 infected people, including 38 deaths. A Rapid Response Team (RRT) was appointed after a request from the Korean government on June 8, 2015 calling for specialists to manage and control the MERS-CoV outbreak. This report presents the opinion of the RRT who worked to manage this healthcare-associated MERS-CoV outbreak in Korea. PMID:26788408

  17. Modeling opinion interactions in a BBS community

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, F.; Liu, Y.

    2010-11-01

    This paper is devoted to apply agent based models to real opinion interactions in a bulletin board system (BBS) community. By analyzing a real BBS community, we reveal some empirical features of opinion interactions on the Web. Then, we propose a simple opinion model that bears both general characteristics of traditional opinion models, and some real interacting rules on the Web. The model simulates a group of agents representing Web users participating to a discussion. Simulation results show some dynamical regimes consistent with empirical facts, and offer some possible explanations for the emergence of some real features. Our work implies the possibility of building simple agent based models to simulate computer-mediated interactions on the Web.

  18. 29 CFR 18.701 - Opinion testimony by lay witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... Opinion testimony by lay witnesses. If the witness is not testifying as an expert, the witness' testimony... based on the perception of the witness and helpful to a clear understanding of the witness' testimony or... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Opinion testimony by lay witnesses. 18.701 Section...

  19. Legal Decisions and Opinions in Pollution Cases

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hills, John P.

    1976-01-01

    When dealing with the "frontier of scientific knowledge" and questions of public health, United States courts are waiving traditional burdens of proof, giving increased weight to expert opinions and/or lowering their standard of necessary proof. Recent cases involving asbestos, pesticides, lead in gasoline, and vinyl chlorides are discussed. (BT)

  20. Choice Shift in Opinion Network Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gabbay, Michael

    Choice shift is a phenomenon associated with small group dynamics whereby group discussion causes group members to shift their opinions in a more extreme direction so that the mean post-discussion opinion exceeds the mean pre-discussion opinion. Also known as group polarization, choice shift is a robust experimental phenomenon and has been well-studied within social psychology. In opinion network models, shifts toward extremism are typically produced by the presence of stubborn agents at the extremes of the opinion axis, whose opinions are much more resistant to change than moderate agents. However, we present a model in which choice shift can arise without the assumption of stubborn agents; the model evolves member opinions and uncertainties using coupled nonlinear differential equations. In addition, we briefly describe the results of a recent experiment conducted involving online group discussion concerning the outcome of National Football League games are described. The model predictions concerning the effects of network structure, disagreement level, and team choice (favorite or underdog) are in accord with the experimental results. This research was funded by the Office of Naval Research and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

  1. Opinion formation of free speech on the directed social network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, Jiongming; Ma, Hongxu; Liu, Baohong; Li, Qi

    2014-12-01

    A dynamical model with continuous opinion is proposed to study how the speech order and the topology of directed social network affect the opinion formation of free speech. In the model, agents express their opinions one by one with random order (RO) or probability order (PO), other agents paying attentions to the speaking agent, receive provider's opinion, update their opinions and then express their new opinions in their turns. It is proved that with the same agent j repeats its opinion more, other agents who pay their attentions to j and include j's opinion in their confidence level at initial time, will continue approaching j's opinion. Simulation results reveal that on directed scale-free network: (1) the model for PO forms fewer opinion clusters, larger maximum cluster (MC), smaller standard deviation (SD), and needs less waiting time to reach a middle level of consensus than RO; (2) as the parameter of scale-free degree distribution decreases or the confidence level increases, the results often get better for both speech orders; (3) the differences between PO and RO get smaller as the size of network decreases.

  2. Dual modeling of political opinion networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, R.; A. Wang, Q.

    2011-09-01

    We present the result of a dual modeling of opinion networks. The model complements the agent-based opinion models by attaching to the social agent (voters) network a political opinion (party) network having its own intrinsic mechanisms of evolution. These two subnetworks form a global network, which can be either isolated from, or dependent on, the external influence. Basically, the evolution of the agent network includes link adding and deleting, with the opinion changes influenced by social validation, the political climate, the attractivity of the parties, and the interaction between them. The opinion network is initially composed of numerous nodes representing opinions or parties that are located on a one dimensional axis according to their political positions. The mechanism of evolution includes union, splitting, change of position, and attractivity, taking into account the pairwise node interaction decaying with node distance in power law. The global evolution ends in a stable distribution of the social agents over a quasistable and fluctuating stationary number of remaining parties. Empirical study on the lifetime distribution of numerous parties and vote results is carried out to verify numerical results.

  3. [Domains in the clinical practice of Clinical Nursing Experts in Germany and their correspondence with the internationally described "Advanced Nursing Practice"].

    PubMed

    Mendel, Simon; Feuchtinger, Johanna

    2009-06-01

    In spite of a growing trend toward academic education and increasing numbers of "nursing experts" functioning as change agents in Germany, actual nursing experts as in the internationally described Advanced Nursing Practice (ANP) are scarce. Drawing from a ten-year experience in implementing the international concept, the University Hospital Freiburg (UKF), Germany, constitutes a notable exception, as it presently employs ten clinically practicing nursing experts. Based on this background of educating nursing experts, this presentation aims at describing the implementation of the nursing expert's role and its fit and conformance with the international ANP. A 3-stage Delphi design was used for interviewing all the nursing experts at the hospital (n = 10) about their expert opinions; in addition, all nursing managers (n = 7) as well as unit and team leaders (n = 49) were asked about their opinion to relevant functions and domains of nursing experts. The following clinical practice domains of nursing experts were identified: Direct patient care, patient education, support and supervision of nurses, maintenance and expansion of professional skills and knowledge of the nursing staff, counselling of managers, quality assurance and organizational development, theory to practice transfer, nursing research, maintenance of own professional skills and knowledge and continuing education, and publicity work. Additionally, a three-year nursing education, a longer lasting professional experience, a degree in nursing science or nursing education, and specialist skills in the respective area of expertise were identified as credentials for nursing expert practice. The nursing expert concept at UKF shows elements of the international ANP with similarities to the role of a Clinical Nurse Specialist. PMID:19496033

  4. 29 CFR 18.702 - Testimony by experts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... experts. If scientific, technical, or other specialized knowledge will assist the judge as trier of fact... knowledge, skill, experience, training, or education, may testify thereto in the form of an opinion...

  5. Expert reports.

    PubMed

    Thornton, R G

    2000-10-01

    In 1996, article 4590i of the Texas Revised Civil Statutes Annotated, the statutory provision that governs health care liability claims in Texas, was amended to require claimants to file expert reports within 180 days as part of the prosecution of their claims. Sufficient expert reports include explanations of the standard of care, the deviation from that standard, and how the deviation caused the claimant's damages. Two provisions allow courts to grant a 30-day extension for filing expert reports. A good cause extension can be used to extend the filing deadline to 210 days; however, case law has not clearly defined what constitutes good cause. An accident or mistake grace period can be used to justify reports filed >210 days after the suit has been filed; judges determine whether the failure is due to a mistake or intentional indifference. As with any statute, the language is not as important as how the courts (judges) interpret that language. The statute may appear strict but room for interpretation exists. PMID:16389359

  6. Correlation between information diffusion and opinion evolution on social media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiong, Fei; Liu, Yun; Zhang, Zhenjiang

    2014-12-01

    Information diffusion and opinion evolution are often treated as two independent processes. Opinion models assume the topic reaches each agent and agents initially have their own ideas. In fact, the processes of information diffusion and opinion evolution often intertwine with each other. Whether the influence between these two processes plays a role in the system state is unclear. In this paper, we collected more than one million real data from a well-known social platform, and analysed large-scale user diffusion behaviour and opinion formation. We found that user inter-event time follows a two-scaling power-law distribution with two different power exponents. Public opinion stabilizes quickly and evolves toward the direction of convergence, but the consensus state is prevented by a few opponents. We propose a three-state opinion model accompanied by information diffusion. Agents form and exchange their opinions during information diffusion. Conversely, agents' opinions also influence their diffusion actions. Simulations show that the model with a correlation of the two processes produces similar statistical characteristics as empirical results. A fast epidemic process drives individual opinions to converge more obviously. Unlike previous epidemic models, the number of infected agents does not always increase with the update rate, but has a peak with an intermediate value of the rate.

  7. Expert Report of Kent D. Syverud in "Grutter v. Bollinger"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Syverud, Kent D.

    2004-01-01

    In "Grutter v. Bollinger", __ U.S. ___ ; 123 S. Ct. 2325; 156 L. Ed. 2d 304 (2003), the Supreme Court rendered a landmark decision approving the use of race as one factor in admissions decisions at the University of Michigan Law School. The opinion of the Court discussed an expert opinion of Kent D. Syverud, Dean of the Vanderbilt Law School,…

  8. Opinion Integration and Summarization

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lu, Yue

    2011-01-01

    As Web 2.0 applications become increasingly popular, more and more people express their opinions on the Web in various ways in real time. Such wide coverage of topics and abundance of users make the Web an extremely valuable source for mining people's opinions about all kinds of topics. However, since the opinions are usually expressed as…

  9. Expert Concept Mapping Study on Mobile Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Borner, Dirk; Glahn, Christian; Stoyanov, Slavi; Kalz, Marco; Specht, Marcus

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The present paper introduces concept mapping as a structured participative conceptualization approach to identify clusters of ideas and opinions generated by experts within the domain of mobile learning. Utilizing this approach, the paper aims to contribute to a definition of key domain characteristics by identifying the main educational…

  10. Expert Mining for Solving Social Harmony Problems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Jifa; Song, Wuqi; Zhu, Zhengxiang; Liu, Yijun

    Social harmony problems are being existed in social system, which is an open giant complex system. For solving such kind of problems the Meta-synthesis system approach proposed by Qian XS et al will be applied. In this approach the data, information, knowledge, model, experience and wisdom should be integrated and synthesized. Data mining, text mining and web mining are good techniques for using data, information and knowledge. Model mining, psychology mining and expert mining are new techniques for mining the idea, opinions, experiences and wisdom. In this paper we will introduce the expert mining, which is based on mining the experiences, knowledge and wisdom directly from experts, managers and leaders.

  11. Explosion probability of unexploded ordnance: expert beliefs.

    PubMed

    MacDonald, Jacqueline Anne; Small, Mitchell J; Morgan, M G

    2008-08-01

    This article reports on a study to quantify expert beliefs about the explosion probability of unexploded ordnance (UXO). Some 1,976 sites at closed military bases in the United States are contaminated with UXO and are slated for cleanup, at an estimated cost of $15-140 billion. Because no available technology can guarantee 100% removal of UXO, information about explosion probability is needed to assess the residual risks of civilian reuse of closed military bases and to make decisions about how much to invest in cleanup. This study elicited probability distributions for the chance of UXO explosion from 25 experts in explosive ordnance disposal, all of whom have had field experience in UXO identification and deactivation. The study considered six different scenarios: three different types of UXO handled in two different ways (one involving children and the other involving construction workers). We also asked the experts to rank by sensitivity to explosion 20 different kinds of UXO found at a case study site at Fort Ord, California. We found that the experts do not agree about the probability of UXO explosion, with significant differences among experts in their mean estimates of explosion probabilities and in the amount of uncertainty that they express in their estimates. In three of the six scenarios, the divergence was so great that the average of all the expert probability distributions was statistically indistinguishable from a uniform (0, 1) distribution-suggesting that the sum of expert opinion provides no information at all about the explosion risk. The experts' opinions on the relative sensitivity to explosion of the 20 UXO items also diverged. The average correlation between rankings of any pair of experts was 0.41, which, statistically, is barely significant (p= 0.049) at the 95% confidence level. Thus, one expert's rankings provide little predictive information about another's rankings. The lack of consensus among experts suggests that empirical studies

  12. Expert Assessments of Russians' Attitudes toward Higher Education Reform

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grigor'ev, S. I.

    2009-01-01

    This article examines the opinion of experts who are first-rate specialists in their fields and can provide accurate and objective information about these issues. An expert survey was conducted by the Russian State Social University in seven federal districts, twenty-five regions of the country. The survey was participated in by 309 experts…

  13. Ethical issues of expert witness testimony.

    PubMed

    Ferreres, Alberto R

    2014-07-01

    Being a surgical expert witness (EW) in professional liability claims implies ethical responsibilities, which are usually unknown to the parties who try to obtain such testimony as well as to the surgeons involved in providing the expert opinion required by the courts. Giving medical testimony can be included in the field of surgery since (1) being an expert medical witness and judge the performance of another surgeon means that the witness must have a medical license and preferably be board-certified as a surgeon, and (2) the EW opinion sets the standard of care to be applied in each particular case. Thus, the role of the surgeon EW in the legal arena must have the same degree of integrity as the surgeon in his practice with direct patient care and it should be reviewed and subject to regulation. PMID:24852436

  14. Multinational evidence-based recommendations for the use of methotrexate in rheumatic disorders with a focus on rheumatoid arthritis: integrating systematic literature research and expert opinion of a broad international panel of rheumatologists in the 3E Initiative

    PubMed Central

    Visser, K; Katchamart, W; Loza, E; Martinez-Lopez, J A; Salliot, C; Trudeau, J; Bombardier, C; Carmona, L; van der Heijde, D; Bijlsma, J W J; Boumpas, D T; Canhao, H; Edwards, C J; Hamuryudan, V; Kvien, T K; Leeb, B F; Martín-Mola, E M; Mielants, H; Müller-Ladner, U; Murphy, G; Østergaard, M; Pereira, I A; Ramos-Remus, C; Valentini, G; Zochling, J; Dougados, M

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: To develop evidence-based recommendations for the use of methotrexate in daily clinical practice in rheumatic disorders. Methods: 751 rheumatologists from 17 countries participated in the 3E (Evidence, Expertise, Exchange) Initiative of 2007–8 consisting of three separate rounds of discussions and Delphi votes. Ten clinical questions concerning the use of methotrexate in rheumatic disorders were formulated. A systematic literature search in Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library and 2005–7 American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism meeting abstracts was conducted. Selected articles were systematically reviewed and the evidence was appraised according to the Oxford levels of evidence. Each country elaborated a set of national recommendations. Finally, multinational recommendations were formulated and agreement among the participants and the potential impact on their clinical practice was assessed. Results: A total of 16 979 references was identified, of which 304 articles were included in the systematic reviews. Ten multinational key recommendations on the use of methotrexate were formulated. Nine recommendations were specific for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), including the work-up before initiating methotrexate, optimal dosage and route, use of folic acid, monitoring, management of hepatotoxicity, long-term safety, mono versus combination therapy and management in the perioperative period and before/during pregnancy. One recommendation concerned methotrexate as a steroid-sparing agent in other rheumatic diseases. Conclusions: Ten recommendations for the use of methotrexate in daily clinical practice focussed on RA were developed, which are evidence based and supported by a large panel of rheumatologists, enhancing their validity and practical use. PMID:19033291

  15. Social opinion dynamics is not chaotic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lim, Chjan; Zhang, Weituo

    2016-08-01

    Motivated by the research on social opinion dynamics over large and dense networks, a general framework for verifying the monotonicity property of multi-agent dynamics is introduced. This allows a derivation of sociologically meaningful sufficient conditions for monotonicity that are tailor-made for social opinion dynamics, which typically have high nonlinearity. A direct consequence of monotonicity is that social opinion dynamics is nonchaotic. A key part of this framework is the definition of a partial order relation that is suitable for a large class of social opinion dynamics such as the generalized naming games. Comparisons are made to previous techniques to verify monotonicity. Using the results obtained, we extend many of the consequences of monotonicity to this class of social dynamics, including several corollaries on their asymptotic behavior, such as global convergence to consensus and tipping points of a minority fraction of zealots or leaders.

  16. Selection system for forensic expert witness and their qualification in Japan.

    PubMed

    Matoba, Ryoji

    2003-03-01

    The origin of modern Japanese criminal procedure can be traced back to 1880, when the Code of Criminal Procedure saying that the judge can summon an expert to make an expert opinion was enacted. Broadly speaking, this procedure derived from continental law. After the end of World War II, some Anglo-American approaches were fused with the former continental system. Ex-officio examination of evidence by the court was abolished and the system of cross-examination by the parties was adopted. However, the system of 'expert opinion' did not change basically. Now-a-days, we have two experts; expert and expert witness. When the judge asked 'expert opinion' to expert, he is an expert. However, when either of parties asked, then he is called 'expert witness'. Usually, expert witnesses are selected from professors or associate professors of universities. But accepting expert witness is not estimated for promotion in Japanese Medical College, so sometimes to select expert witness is difficult. Then, justice began to educate medical doctors to receive expert witness and has asked to medical society to offer the list of adequate expert witnesses, and also our society cooperates with this. Japanese Society of Legal Medicine instituted the medical speciality certification system, which includes such specialities as inspection of corpses and legal medicine that focuses on forensic practice. This means that our society certifies those who having diploma of legal medicine as expert witness. PMID:12935552

  17. Survival of extreme opinions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsu, Jiann-wien; Huang, Ding-wei

    2009-12-01

    We study the survival of extreme opinions in various processes of consensus formation. All the opinions are treated equally and subjected to the same rules of changing. We investigate three typical models to reach a consensus in each case: (A) personal influence, (B) influence from surroundings, and (C) influence to surroundings. Starting with uniformly distributed random opinions, our calculated results show that the extreme opinions can survive in both models (A) and (B), but not in model (C). We obtain a conclusion that both personal influence and passive adaptation to the environment are not sufficient enough to eradicate all the extreme opinions. Only the active persuasion to change the surroundings eliminates the extreme opinions completely.

  18. Opinion Dynamics with Disagreement and Modulated Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sîrbu, Alina; Loreto, Vittorio; Servedio, Vito D. P.; Tria, Francesca

    2013-04-01

    Opinion dynamics concerns social processes through which populations or groups of individuals agree or disagree on specific issues. As such, modelling opinion dynamics represents an important research area that has been progressively acquiring relevance in many different domains. Existing approaches have mostly represented opinions through discrete binary or continuous variables by exploring a whole panoply of cases: e.g. independence, noise, external effects, multiple issues. In most of these cases the crucial ingredient is an attractive dynamics through which similar or similar enough agents get closer. Only rarely the possibility of explicit disagreement has been taken into account (i.e., the possibility for a repulsive interaction among individuals' opinions), and mostly for discrete or 1-dimensional opinions, through the introduction of additional model parameters. Here we introduce a new model of opinion formation, which focuses on the interplay between the possibility of explicit disagreement, modulated in a self-consistent way by the existing opinions' overlaps between the interacting individuals, and the effect of external information on the system. Opinions are modelled as a vector of continuous variables related to multiple possible choices for an issue. Information can be modulated to account for promoting multiple possible choices. Numerical results show that extreme information results in segregation and has a limited effect on the population, while milder messages have better success and a cohesion effect. Additionally, the initial condition plays an important role, with the population forming one or multiple clusters based on the initial average similarity between individuals, with a transition point depending on the number of opinion choices.

  19. Dynamics of bounded confidence opinion in heterogeneous social networks: Concord against partial antagonism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurmyshev, Evguenii; Juárez, Héctor A.; González-Silva, Ricardo A.

    2011-08-01

    Bounded confidence models of opinion dynamics in social networks have been actively studied in recent years, in particular, opinion formation and extremism propagation along with other aspects of social dynamics. In this work, after an analysis of limitations of the Deffuant-Weisbuch (DW) bounded confidence, relative agreement model, we propose the mixed model that takes into account two psychological types of individuals. Concord agents (C-agents) are friendly people; they interact in a way that their opinions always get closer. Agents of the other psychological type show partial antagonism in their interaction (PA-agents). Opinion dynamics in heterogeneous social groups, consisting of agents of the two types, was studied on different social networks: Erdös-Rényi random graphs, small-world networks and complete graphs. Limit cases of the mixed model, pure C- and PA-societies, were also studied. We found that group opinion formation is, qualitatively, almost independent of the topology of networks used in this work. Opinion fragmentation, polarization and consensus are observed in the mixed model at different proportions of PA- and C-agents, depending on the value of initial opinion tolerance of agents. As for the opinion formation and arising of “dissidents”, the opinion dynamics of the C-agents society was found to be similar to that of the DW model, except for the rate of opinion convergence. Nevertheless, mixed societies showed dynamics and bifurcation patterns notably different to those of the DW model. The influence of biased initial conditions over opinion formation in heterogeneous social groups was also studied versus the initial value of opinion uncertainty, varying the proportion of the PA- to C-agents. Bifurcation diagrams showed an impressive evolution of collective opinion, in particular, radical changes of left to right consensus or vice versa at an opinion uncertainty value equal to 0.7 in the model with the PA/C mixture of population near 50/50.

  20. [Medical expert assessment in civil and criminal law--medical expert assessment from the viewpoint of the attorney].

    PubMed

    Dierks, C

    1996-11-01

    Dealing with a medical expert assessment requires experience and perseverance of the lawyer. Exact knowledge about the expert opinion itself and the procedural options is of greatest importance due to the decisive impact of the medical expert assessment on the outcome of the lawsuit. The lawyer has to consider at any time of the process whether he can initiate an expert assessment, whether he has to evaluate, criticize or question obtained expert assessments, whether he has to challenge the expert or possibly has to introduce another expert into the lawsuit. The expert witness has to have professional knowledge and the lawyer as well as the court have to absorb this knowledge and use it accordingly. PMID:9064931

  1. Discourse, Opinions, and Ideologies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van Dijk, Teun A.

    1995-01-01

    Attempts to demonstrate the linkage between opinions, attitudes, and ideologies and to look for ways of explaining variation in opinions as well as in shared social dimensions of evaluative beliefs. The article argues that theories of discourse and ideologies, as well as the cognitive aspects of ideologies, should not be reduced to any partial…

  2. The prevention of analgesic opioids abuse: expert opinion.

    PubMed

    Maremmani, I; Gerra, G; Ripamonti, I C; Mugelli, A; Allegri, M; Viganò, R; Romualdi, P; Pinto, C; Raffaeli, W; Coluzzi, F; Gatti, R C; Mammucari, M; Fanelli, G

    2015-11-01

    Opioids are drugs of reference for the treatment of moderate to severe pain. Their proper use and a periodic assessment of the patient are crucial to prevent misuse. A multidisciplinary group suggests strategies for all stakeholders involved in the management of pain and suggests the importance of the doctor-patient relationship. PMID:26592848

  3. Expert opinion: diagnosis and treatment of proximal hamstring tendinopathy

    PubMed Central

    Lempainen, Lasse; Johansson, Kristian; Banke, Ingo J.; Ranne, Juha; Mäkelä, Keijo; Sarimo, Janne; Niemi, Pekka; Orava, Sakari

    2015-01-01

    Summary Background: proximal hamstring tendinopathy (PHT) is a disabilitating disease often causing underperformance in the athletically demanding patients. The main symptom of PHT is lower gluteal pain especially during running or while prolonged sitting. Mainly affecting athletically active individuals, PHT is a considerable challenge for treating health care professionals. Purpose: this paper aims to concisely present the literature on PHT to guide health care professionals treating these patients and doing research on the subject. Methods: we reviewed the literature on PHT through literature search of scientific journal databases. Conclusions: as a tendinopathic pathology, it is a rather recently discovered exertion injury. As with other chronic tendon overuse injuries, current treatment strategies are unspecific with uncertain outcomes due to the unknown etiology of the tendon degeneration. Diagnostic features as well as both operative and non-operative treatments are evaluated from a clinical perspective, providing up to date information for clinicians and sports medicine therapists dealing with hamstring problems. Level of evidence: V. PMID:25878983

  4. Expert opinion on available options treating pulmonary arterial hypertension.

    PubMed

    Naeije, Robert; Huez, Sandrine

    2007-10-01

    Until in the early nineties, pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) was a uniformly fatal disease, with a median life expectancy of approximately 2.5 years. Uncontrolled studies showed that a small proportion of patients responded to high-dose calcium channel blockers, retrospective studies supported the use of anticoagulant therapy and heart-lung or lung transplantation remained the only option. In 1996, a 3-month randomised, placebo-controlled trial showed that chronic intravenous epoprostenol (synthetic prostacyclin) improved functional state, exercise capacity, haemodynamics, and even survival in patients with idiopathic PAH. Similar benefits were subsequently reported and extended to all PAH categories, and confirmed with more stable prostacyclin analogues administered subcutaneously (treprostinil), by inhalation (iloprost), or even orally (beraprost). In the early 2000s, two randomised controlled trials showed efficacy of the oral intake of the dual endothelin A/B receptor antagonist bosentan. Two selective endothelin-A receptor antagonists, sitaxsentan and ambrisentan, are being developed. Finally, a randomised controlled trial has established the therapeutic efficacy of phosphodiesterase-5 inhibition with sildenafil, introducing a third signalling pathway to be targeted by the pharmacological treatment of PAH. Another phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitor, tadalafil, is already being evaluated. While all these treatments have markedly improved the lives of PAH patients, they have not offered yet a cure of the disease. Multi-drug approaches are now under evaluation, with more ambitious therapeutic goals. Alternative approaches with stem cells, RhoA-Rho-kinase inhibitors, platelet derived growth factor inhibitors and vasoactive intestinal peptides are being considered. PMID:17927481

  5. [Expert opinion of ORL for private accident insurance].

    PubMed

    Michel, O; Brusis, T

    2010-02-01

    The provisions and the aims of private accident insurance are not comparable to those of the statutory accident insurance. The ear nose throat- (ENT-)specialist is often consulted on the question of a possible causality between an accident and sequelae. Loss of smell, taste disorder and loss of hearing are specified in a table with a fixed percentage for compensation. The individual invalidity for ear ringing, vertigo and other disorders have to be determined separately from this table. In private accident insurance a probability bordering on absolute certainty must be given when establishing a possible causal connection whereby mental reactions are excluded from compensation and all sequelae have to have continued for at least 3 years. The occupation or specific skills of the injured person are not essential for the judgement. The current jurisdiction and conditions of private accident insurance for tinnitus and vertigo have to be taken into consideration. PMID:20127064

  6. Administering ziconotide and monitoring patients treated with ziconotide: expert opinions.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, Alisia A; Sapienza-Crawford, Anne J; Hanley, Kari L; Lokey, Kristi J; Wells, Linda; McDowell, Gladstone C; Stanton-Hicks, Michael

    2013-09-01

    Some patients with chronic pain who are intolerant of or refractory to treatment with systemic analgesics may benefit from intrathecal therapy. Ziconotide is the first nonopioid analgesic approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration for intrathecal administration. Several randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trials have demonstrated the efficacy and safety of ziconotide. However, the maximum recommended dosing and titration schedule provided in the prescribing information may be too aggressive for some patients, and experience has demonstrated that ziconotide is better tolerated with slower titration to a lower maximum dose. Efficacy can be assessed by an evaluation of changes in pain, functionality, and quality of life. Cognitive adverse events may be subtle; therefore, it is important that health care professionals not only monitor patients for signs and symptoms of cognitive adverse events, but also teach family members how to do the same. Careful patient assessment and monitoring can help optimize the potential benefit from treatment with ziconotide. PMID:23972874

  7. The Delphi Method: Gathering Expert Opinion in Religious Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baumfield, Vivienne M.; Conroy, James C.; Davis, Robert A.; Lundie, David C.

    2012-01-01

    The "Does Religious Education work?" project is part of the Religion and Society programme funded by two major research councils in the UK. It sets out to track the trajectory of Religious Education (RE) in secondary schools in the UK from the aims and intentions represented in policy through its enactment in classroom practice to the estimations…

  8. Infrared Thermography And The Expert Witness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, Charles C.

    1985-03-01

    With the continued growth of legal activities involving litigation, lawsuits involving technical matters may be very complex. Expert witnesses are often hired by both plaintiffs and defendants to help clarify and simplify technical merits of a case in order for the jury to make an educated decision. The usage of infrared thermography in legal matters has also been growing. This paper reviews several areas where infrared thermography has been utilized in legal matters. These include analysis of building defects, fire analysis and equipment failures. Expert witness qualifications, test procedures and analyses are discussed. The role of industry and governmental standards is reviewed. Opinions from the infrared thermographic expert should be unbiased, factual and within the area of qualification of the expert.

  9. Simplified Expert Elicitation Procedure for Risk Assessment of Operating Events

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; David Gertman; Jeffrey Joe; Julie Marble; William Galyean; Larry Blackwood; Harold Blackman

    2005-06-01

    This report describes a simplified, tractable, and usable procedure within the US Nuclear Regulator Commission (NRC) for seeking expert opinion and judgment. The NRC has increased efforts to document the reliability and risk of nuclear power plants (NPPs) through Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) models. The Significance Determination Process (SDP) and Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) programs at the NRC utilize expert judgment on the probability of failure, human error, and the operability of equipment in cases where otherwise insufficient operational data exist to make meaningful estimates. In the past, the SDP and ASP programs informally sought the opinion of experts inside and outside the NRC. This document represents a formal, documented procedure to take the place of informal expert elicitation. The procedures outlined in this report follow existing formal expert elicitation methodologies, but are streamlined as appropriate to the degree of accuracy required and the schedule for producing SDP and ASP analyses.

  10. Non-consensus Opinion Models on Complex Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Qian; Braunstein, Lidia A.; Wang, Huijuan; Shao, Jia; Stanley, H. Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo

    2013-04-01

    only within single networks but also between networks, and because the rules of opinion formation within a network may differ from those between networks, we study here the opinion dynamics in coupled networks. Each network represents a social group or community and the interdependent links joining individuals from different networks may be social ties that are unusually strong, e.g., married couples. We apply the non-consensus opinion (NCO) rule on each individual network and the global majority rule on interdependent pairs such that two interdependent agents with different opinions will, due to the influence of mass media, follow the majority opinion of the entire population. The opinion interactions within each network and the interdependent links across networks interlace periodically until a steady state is reached. We find that the interdependent links effectively force the system from a second order phase transition, which is characteristic of the NCO model on a single network, to a hybrid phase transition, i.e., a mix of second-order and abrupt jump-like transitions that ultimately becomes, as we increase the percentage of interdependent agents, a pure abrupt transition. We conclude that for the NCO model on coupled networks, interactions through interdependent links could push the non-consensus opinion model to a consensus opinion model, which mimics the reality that increased mass communication causes people to hold opinions that are increasingly similar. We also find that the effect of interdependent links is more pronounced in interdependent scale free networks than in interdependent Erdős Rényi networks.

  11. Techniques for capturing expert knowledge - An expert systems/hypertext approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lafferty, Larry; Taylor, Greg; Schumann, Robin; Evans, Randy; Koller, Albert M., Jr.

    1990-01-01

    The knowledge-acquisition strategy developed for the Explosive Hazards Classification (EHC) Expert System is described in which expert systems and hypertext are combined, and broad applications are proposed. The EHC expert system is based on rapid prototyping in which primary knowledge acquisition from experts is not emphasized; the explosive hazards technical bulletin, technical guidance, and minimal interviewing are used to develop the knowledge-based system. Hypertext is used to capture the technical information with respect to four issues including procedural, materials, test, and classification issues. The hypertext display allows the integration of multiple knowlege representations such as clarifications or opinions, and thereby allows the performance of a broad range of tasks on a single machine. Among other recommendations, it is suggested that the integration of hypertext and expert systems makes the resulting synergistic system highly efficient.

  12. Opinion formation and bi-polarization with biased assimilation and homophily

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Guiyuan; Zhang, Weidong

    2016-02-01

    An agent-based model incorporating biased assimilation is proposed in this paper to investigate opinion dynamics over a connected social network. The opinion of each agent is represented by a sequence of arguments, and it evolves through the interactions between agents. The probability that one agent chooses another to communicate depends on the similarity of their opinions. During every interaction, interacting agents exchange the argument randomly selected from the corresponding arguments sequence. Theoretical analysis reveals that this model results in consensus on either extreme positive opinion or extreme negative opinion, or generates bi-polarization. Numerical simulations are carried out to investigate the dynamics of the model over different networks. Results are obtained in terms of the effect of homophily, biased assimilation and network topology on opinion formation.

  13. The Technologist As An Expert Witness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morrill, R. E. K.; Hall, Morse

    1985-03-01

    Decisions in our legal system are made by laymen. Even the most technical and complex cases are heard and decided by a judge or jury who may very well have no expertise on the questions which confront them. As a result, our legal system permits experts to explain complex phenomena to the fact finder and even to express his opinion on the issue which the fact finder ultimately has to decide. For example, an expert may explain not only how an airplane accident occurred, but also may testify that someone was at fault.

  14. Opinion dynamics and influencing on random geometric graphs.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Weituo; Lim, Chjan C; Korniss, G; Szymanski, Boleslaw K

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the two-word Naming Game on two-dimensional random geometric graphs. Studying this model advances our understanding of the spatial distribution and propagation of opinions in social dynamics. A main feature of this model is the spontaneous emergence of spatial structures called opinion domains which are geographic regions with clear boundaries within which all individuals share the same opinion. We provide the mean-field equation for the underlying dynamics and discuss several properties of the equation such as the stationary solutions and two-time-scale separation. For the evolution of the opinion domains we find that the opinion domain boundary propagates at a speed proportional to its curvature. Finally we investigate the impact of committed agents on opinion domains and find the scaling of consensus time. PMID:24993655

  15. Opinion Dynamics and Influencing on Random Geometric Graphs

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Weituo; Lim, Chjan C.; Korniss, G.; Szymanski, Boleslaw K.

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the two-word Naming Game on two-dimensional random geometric graphs. Studying this model advances our understanding of the spatial distribution and propagation of opinions in social dynamics. A main feature of this model is the spontaneous emergence of spatial structures called opinion domains which are geographic regions with clear boundaries within which all individuals share the same opinion. We provide the mean-field equation for the underlying dynamics and discuss several properties of the equation such as the stationary solutions and two-time-scale separation. For the evolution of the opinion domains we find that the opinion domain boundary propagates at a speed proportional to its curvature. Finally we investigate the impact of committed agents on opinion domains and find the scaling of consensus time. PMID:24993655

  16. Expert evidence and medical manslaughter: vagueness in action.

    PubMed

    Quick, Oliver

    2011-01-01

    This article examines the reliance placed on expert evidence in prosecutions of health professionals for gross negligence manslaughter, where juries must decide whether conduct goes beyond civil negligence and constitutes the crime of involuntary manslaughter. It argues that the test for liability is vague and examines some of the consequences of this. Given the vagueness of the offence, jurors are likely to place great reliance on expert medical evidence. Little is known about how experts negotiate the legal process, empirically speaking: how they approach their task, how they view their role as expert witnesses, and the attitudes, biases, and beliefs that may underpin their testimony. Drawing on the experiences and perceptions often medical experts, this article explores how experts manage the vagueness inherent in the task of interpreting and applying gross negligence. Experts appear to go beyond offering purely medical opinion and enjoy engaging with law and the legal process. PMID:22180927

  17. Social judgment theory based model on opinion formation, polarization and evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chau, H. F.; Wong, C. Y.; Chow, F. K.; Fung, Chi-Hang Fred

    2014-12-01

    The dynamical origin of opinion polarization in the real world is an interesting topic that physical scientists may help to understand. To properly model the dynamics, the theory must be fully compatible with findings by social psychologists on microscopic opinion change. Here we introduce a generic model of opinion formation with homogeneous agents based on the well-known social judgment theory in social psychology by extending a similar model proposed by Jager and Amblard. The agents’ opinions will eventually cluster around extreme and/or moderate opinions forming three phases in a two-dimensional parameter space that describes the microscopic opinion response of the agents. The dynamics of this model can be qualitatively understood by mean-field analysis. More importantly, first-order phase transition in opinion distribution is observed by evolving the system under a slow change in the system parameters, showing that punctuated equilibria in public opinion can occur even in a fully connected social network.

  18. Speech spectrogram expert

    SciTech Connect

    Johannsen, J.; Macallister, J.; Michalek, T.; Ross, S.

    1983-01-01

    Various authors have pointed out that humans can become quite adept at deriving phonetic transcriptions from speech spectrograms (as good as 90percent accuracy at the phoneme level). The authors describe an expert system which attempts to simulate this performance. The speech spectrogram expert (spex) is actually a society made up of three experts: a 2-dimensional vision expert, an acoustic-phonetic expert, and a phonetics expert. The visual reasoning expert finds important visual features of the spectrogram. The acoustic-phonetic expert reasons about how visual features relates to phonemes, and about how phonemes change visually in different contexts. The phonetics expert reasons about allowable phoneme sequences and transformations, and deduces an english spelling for phoneme strings. The speech spectrogram expert is highly interactive, allowing users to investigate hypotheses and edit rules. 10 references.

  19. 29 CFR 18.701 - Opinion testimony by lay witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE FOR ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS BEFORE THE OFFICE OF ADMINISTRATIVE LAW JUDGES Rules of Evidence Opinions and Expert Testimony § 18.701... based on the perception of the witness and helpful to a clear understanding of the witness' testimony...

  20. 29 CFR 18.701 - Opinion testimony by lay witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE FOR ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS BEFORE THE OFFICE OF ADMINISTRATIVE LAW JUDGES Rules of Evidence Opinions and Expert Testimony § 18.701... based on the perception of the witness and helpful to a clear understanding of the witness' testimony...

  1. 29 CFR 18.701 - Opinion testimony by lay witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE FOR ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS BEFORE THE OFFICE OF ADMINISTRATIVE LAW JUDGES Rules of Evidence Opinions and Expert Testimony § 18.701... based on the perception of the witness and helpful to a clear understanding of the witness' testimony...

  2. Eliciting spatial statistics from geological experts using genetic algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, Matthew; Curtis, Andrew

    2014-07-01

    A new method to obtain the statistics of a geostatistical model is introduced. The method elicits the statistical information from a geological expert directly, by iteratively updating a population of vectors of statistics, based on the expert's subjective opinion of the corresponding geological simulations. Thus, it does not require the expert to have knowledge of the mathematical and statistical details of the model. The process uses a genetic algorithm to generate new vectors. We demonstrate the methodology for a particular geostatistical model used to model rock pore-space, which simulates the spatial distribution of matrix and pores over a 2-D grid, using multipoint statistics specified by conditional probabilities. Experts were asked to use the algorithm to estimate the statistics of a given target pore-space image with known statistics; thus, their numerical rates of convergence could be calculated. Convergence was measured for all experts, showing that the algorithm can be used to find appropriate probabilities given the expert's subjective input. However, considerable and apparently irreducible residual misfit was found between the true statistics and the estimates of statistics obtained by the experts, with the root-mean-square error on the conditional probabilities typically >0.1. This is interpreted as the limit of the experts' abilities to distinguish between realizations of different spatial statistics using the algorithm. More accurate discrimination is therefore likely to require complementary elicitation techniques or sources of information independent of expert opinion.

  3. A teledentistry system for the second opinion.

    PubMed

    Gambino, Orazio; Lima, Fausto; Pirrone, Roberto; Ardizzone, Edoardo; Campisi, Giuseppina; di Fede, Olga

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we present a Teledentistry system aimed to the Second Opinion task. It make use of a particular camera called intra-oral camera, also called dental camera, in order to perform the photo shooting and real-time video of the inner part of the mouth. The pictures acquired by the Operator with such a device are sent to the Oral Medicine Expert (OME) by means of a current File Transfer Protocol (FTP) service and the real-time video is channeled into a video streaming thanks to the VideoLan client/server (VLC) application. It is composed by a HTML5 web-pages generated by PHP and allows to perform the Second Opinion both when Operator and OME are logged and when one of them is offline. PMID:25570224

  4. Expert witness immunity: surveying the karnage!

    PubMed

    Pamplin, Chris

    2014-03-01

    For most expert witnesses, the decidedly disturbing decision-making of the Supreme Court in Jones v Kaney (2011) UKSC 13, has little immediate impact as, being conscientious professionals, they will be unlikely to be found negligent and will carry professional indemnity insurance just in case. Indeed, they will view existing professional disciplinary risks as a greater concern! But there are a number of potential consequences of this disturbing decision that should be considered by all expert witnesses and some clear actions that may be necessary. These include including obtain appropriate professional indemnity insurance, considering the potential for limiting liability through contract, becoming more circumspect about the way they express their opinions and consider whether accepting single joint expert instructions is still an option. PMID:24619841

  5. Damage spreading and opinion dynamics on scale-free networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fortunato, Santo

    2005-03-01

    We study damage spreading among the opinions of a system of agents, subjected to the dynamics of the Krause-Hegselmann consensus model. The damage consists in a sharp change of the opinion of one or more agents in the initial random opinion configuration, supposedly due to some external factors and/or events. This may help to understand for instance under which conditions special shocking events or targeted propaganda are able to influence the results of elections. For agents lying on the nodes of a Barabási-Albert network, there is a damage spreading transition at a low value εd of the confidence bound parameter. Interestingly, we find as well that there is some critical value εs above which the initial perturbation manages to propagate to all other agents.

  6. Retroperitoneal Sarcoma: Fact, Opinion, and Controversy.

    PubMed

    Gladdy, Rebecca A; Gupta, Abha; Catton, Charles N

    2016-10-01

    After diagnosis of retroperitoneal sarcoma (RPS), detailed imaging and multidisciplinary discussion should guide treatment including surgical resection and in select cases, neoadjuvant therapy. Local recurrence is common in RPS and is associated with grade, histologic subtype, completeness of resection, and size. As guidelines to standardize RPS patient management emerge, expert pathologic assessment and management in centers of excellence are benchmarks of quality of care. The efficacy of current chemotherapy is limited and there is a critical need to understand the molecular basis of sarcoma so that new drug therapies are developed. Multicenter clinical trials are needed to limit opinion and controversy in this complex and challenging disease. PMID:27591493

  7. Phase change in an opinion-dynamics model with separation of time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iñiguez, Gerardo; Kertész, János; Kaski, Kimmo K.; Barrio, R. A.

    2011-01-01

    We define an opinion formation model of agents in a one-dimensional ring, where the opinion of an agent evolves due to its interactions with close neighbors and due to its either positive or negative attitude toward the overall mood of all the other agents. While the dynamics of the agent’s opinion is described with an appropriate differential equation, from time to time pairs of agents are allowed to change their locations to improve the homogeneity of opinion (or comfort feeling) with respect to their short-range environment. In this way the timescale of transaction dynamics and that of environment update are well separated and controlled by a single parameter. By varying this parameter we discovered a phase change in the number of undecided individuals. This phenomenon arises from the fact that too frequent location exchanges among agents result in frustration in their opinion formation. Our mean field analysis supports this picture.

  8. Opinion dynamics on an adaptive random network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benczik, I. J.; Benczik, S. Z.; Schmittmann, B.; Zia, R. K. P.

    2009-04-01

    We revisit the classical model for voter dynamics in a two-party system with two basic modifications. In contrast to the original voter model studied in regular lattices, we implement the opinion formation process in a random network of agents in which interactions are no longer restricted by geographical distance. In addition, we incorporate the rapidly changing nature of the interpersonal relations in the model. At each time step, agents can update their relationships. This update is determined by their own opinion, and by their preference to make connections with individuals sharing the same opinion, or rather with opponents. In this way, the network is built in an adaptive manner, in the sense that its structure is correlated and evolves with the dynamics of the agents. The simplicity of the model allows us to examine several issues analytically. We establish criteria to determine whether consensus or polarization will be the outcome of the dynamics and on what time scales these states will be reached. In finite systems consensus is typical, while in infinite systems a disordered metastable state can emerge and persist for infinitely long time before consensus is reached.

  9. Collective opinion formation model under Bayesian updating and confirmation bias.

    PubMed

    Nishi, Ryosuke; Masuda, Naoki

    2013-06-01

    We propose a collective opinion formation model with a so-called confirmation bias. The confirmation bias is a psychological effect with which, in the context of opinion formation, an individual in favor of an opinion is prone to misperceive new incoming information as supporting the current belief of the individual. Our model modifies a Bayesian decision-making model for single individuals [M. Rabin and J. L. Schrag, Q. J. Econ. 114, 37 (1999)] for the case of a well-mixed population of interacting individuals in the absence of the external input. We numerically simulate the model to show that all the agents eventually agree on one of the two opinions only when the confirmation bias is weak. Otherwise, the stochastic population dynamics ends up creating a disagreement configuration (also called polarization), particularly for large system sizes. A strong confirmation bias allows various final disagreement configurations with different fractions of the individuals in favor of the opposite opinions. PMID:23848643

  10. The Expert Witness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Environmental Science and Technology, 1975

    1975-01-01

    As consumers organize and industry begins to feel the economic pinch of pollution control laws, litigation may increase as will the need for the expert witness. Discussed are the functions and preparations of expert witnesses, their role and conduct in judicial proceedings, and the techniques of being an expert witness. (BT)

  11. Expert witness reform.

    PubMed

    Horton, J Bauer; Reece, Edward; Janis, Jeffrey E; Broughton, George; Hollier, Larry; Thornton, James F; Kenkel, Jeffrey M; Rohrich, Rod J

    2007-12-01

    The legal system depends on the medical expert for evidence. Doctors readily complain about frivolous cases that go to trial, yet a lawyer cannot bring a frivolous claim to trial without a physician expert witness stating that the claim is not frivolous. An insurance company cannot raise premiums without medical expert witnesses servicing the increasing litigation against the insured. Physicians must look to themselves as a major contributor to rising malpractice insurance costs. For without the physician expert witness, no medical malpractice lawsuit can take place. It is the expert physician, not the attorneys or insurance companies, who defines "meritless" and "frivolous" and who ultimately controls the courts' medical malpractice caseload. PMID:18090781

  12. Expert status and performance.

    PubMed

    Burgman, Mark A; McBride, Marissa; Ashton, Raquel; Speirs-Bridge, Andrew; Flander, Louisa; Wintle, Bonnie; Fidler, Fiona; Rumpff, Libby; Twardy, Charles

    2011-01-01

    Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback. PMID:21829574

  13. Expert Status and Performance

    PubMed Central

    Burgman, Mark A.; McBride, Marissa; Ashton, Raquel; Speirs-Bridge, Andrew; Flander, Louisa; Wintle, Bonnie; Fidler, Fiona; Rumpff, Libby; Twardy, Charles

    2011-01-01

    Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience [1], [2]. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback. PMID:21829574

  14. The role of the expert witness in the adversarial legal system.

    PubMed

    Beran, Roy G

    2009-08-01

    So often we hear the legal profession berate expert witnesses as "hired guns" whose bias is for sale. While this may be relevant to a small minority of "experts", the majority do their job with integrity and in an ethical fashion. An advocate for a proposition will not call a witness to support a claim if it is clear that the witness holds an opposing view. It follows that the bias emanates from the lawyer, not the witness. A witness without a formed view cannot truly claim to be an expert, as the expert should have sufficient knowledge to form an opinion. Once that opinion has been expressed and justified, the lawyer will select the most persuasive and cogently constructed opinion with which to convince the court. The expert witness must commence the assessment without bias or favour; must collect her or his history and examination of the relevant material; evaluate all the facts and evidence provided for scrutiny; seek additional material where there appears to be a deficiency; and draw on all of these data to formulate an opinion in response to questions posed by the instructing lawyer. The expert need not support or refute the stance proposed by the lawyer but the lawyer will only use those opinions favourable to the lawyer's case and hold the remainder as privileged where even that option prevails. It follows that the role of the expert is to provide a well-prepared analysis; it is the lawyer who is paid to be biased. PMID:19771993

  15. Influence of Opinion Dynamics on the Evolution of Games

    PubMed Central

    Gargiulo, Floriana; Ramasco, José J.

    2012-01-01

    Under certain circumstances such as lack of information or bounded rationality, human players can take decisions on which strategy to choose in a game on the basis of simple opinions. These opinions can be modified after each round by observing own or others payoff results but can be also modified after interchanging impressions with other players. In this way, the update of the strategies can become a question that goes beyond simple evolutionary rules based on fitness and become a social issue. In this work, we explore this scenario by coupling a game with an opinion dynamics model. The opinion is represented by a continuous variable that corresponds to the certainty of the agents respect to which strategy is best. The opinions transform into actions by making the selection of an strategy a stochastic event with a probability regulated by the opinion. A certain regard for the previous round payoff is included but the main update rules of the opinion are given by a model inspired in social interchanges. We find that the fixed points of the dynamics of the coupled model are different from those of the evolutionary game or the opinion models alone. Furthermore, new features emerge such as the independence of the fraction of cooperators with respect to the topology of the social interaction network or the presence of a small fraction of extremist players. PMID:23166600

  16. An Opinion Interactive Model Based on Individual Persuasiveness

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Xin; Chen, Bin; Liu, Liang; Ma, Liang; Qiu, Xiaogang

    2015-01-01

    In order to study the formation process of group opinion in real life, we put forward a new opinion interactive model based on Deffuant model and its improved models in this paper because current models of opinion dynamics lack considering individual persuasiveness. Our model has following advantages: firstly persuasiveness is added to individual's attributes reflecting the importance of persuasiveness, which means that all the individuals are different from others; secondly probability is introduced in the course of interaction which simulates the uncertainty of interaction. In Monte Carlo simulation experiments, sensitivity analysis including the influence of randomness, initial persuasiveness distribution, and number of individuals is studied at first; what comes next is that the range of common opinion based on the initial persuasiveness distribution can be predicted. Simulation experiment results show that when the initial values of agents are fixed, no matter how many times independently replicated experiments, the common opinion will converge at a certain point; however the number of iterations will not always be the same; the range of common opinion can be predicted when initial distribution of opinion and persuasiveness are given. As a result, this model can reflect and interpret some phenomena of opinion interaction in realistic society. PMID:26508911

  17. Unsolicited medical opinion.

    PubMed

    Ratzan, R M

    1985-05-01

    By virtue of their professional ethics as healers and because of their specialized technical knowledge and clinical experience in assessing and reacting to real and potential emergencies, physicians have an obligation to offer an unsolicited medical opinion when the following conditions are met: (1) physicians assess a high probability of potentially serious disease in a stranger because of information presented to them, either in the form of a communication or physical signs; (2) physicians judge this information to be latent (not readily interpretable as potentially dangerous by the stranger) and likely to remain latent prior to the onset of symptoms; (3) the physicians possess the medical knowledge appropriate to the professional interpretation of this information. Although not a morally risk-free endeavor (invasion of privacy and the potential creation of a 'sick role' whether or not the diagnosis is correct), offering an unsolicited medical opinion under the above conditions can prevent suffering and save lives in unsuspecting strangers. PMID:4009080

  18. From expert witness to defendant: abolition of expert witness protection and its implications.

    PubMed

    Mendelson, Danuta

    2012-12-01

    In Jones v Kaney [2011] 2 AC 398, the United Kingdom Supreme Court held that in England and Wales (but not in Scotland), clients can sue expert witnesses in negligence and/or contract for work performed under their retainer, whether in civil or criminal trials. The duties of expert witnesses in England are regulated by the Civil Procedure Rules and Protocols; the former also regulate the conduct of cases involving expert opinions. The legal context that led to the litigation is examined in the light of these rules, in particular, the nature of the allegations against Dr Kaney, a psychologist retained to provide psychiatric opinion. Jones v Kaney, as a decision of the United Kingdom Supreme Court, is not a binding precedent in Australia. However, unlike statutory enactments, common law judgments are retrospective in their operation, which means that health care practitioners who follow a generally accepted practice today may still be sued for damages by their patients or clients in the future. By definition, the future, including the refusal by the Australian High Court to follow Kaney's abolition of expert witnesses' immunity from suit for breach of duty to their clients, cannot be predicted with certainty. Consequently, health care practitioners in Australia and other countries should be aware of the case, its jurisprudential and practical ramifications. PMID:23431843

  19. Factors Influencing Continuing Professional Development: A Delphi Study among Nursing Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brekelmans, Gerard; Poell, Rob F.; van Wijk, Kees

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this paper is to present an inventory of expert opinions on the factors that influence the participation of registered nurses in continuing professional development (CPD) activities. Design/methodology/approach: A Delphi study was conducted among 38 Dutch experts (nursing employers, managers, education institutions, and…

  20. The dermatologist as expert witness-revisited: know the risks before you agree.

    PubMed

    Piekarsky, Scott B

    2013-12-01

    Legal Standards and requirements exist for dermatologists wishing to serve as expert witnesses. Case law, statutes and licensing/credentialing groups exist to regulate the practice to ensure honesty and integrity. Penalties and sanctions exist for deceptive and fraudulent opinions. However, conversely, private groups must be careful in their efforts to not libel savvy experts or interfere with their legitimate work. PMID:24800432

  1. ASSESSING PESTICIDE RISK TO ARTHROPOD NATURAL ENEMIES USING EXPERT SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    A prototype expert system (NERISK) has been developed to help users assess the impact of pesticides on beneficial arthropod predators and parasitoids in agricultural systems. hell program (RECOG) was adapted with minor modifications to allow the encoding of expert opinion on this...

  2. The irresponsible expert witness: a failure of biomedical graduate education and professional accountability.

    PubMed

    Brent, R L

    1982-11-01

    Many forces have created the epidemic of negligence and malpractice litigation. One of the contributing factors to the rising rate of nonmeritorious litigation is the increasing number of unequalified and irresponsible expert witnesses. The high remuneration has attracted physician-scientists who are unaware of the proper role of an expert witness. They are frequently manipulated by the attorneys and function as partisans rather than scholars. The role of the expert witness should be taught in medical and graduate school. Testimony should be taught in medical and graduate school. Testimony should be treated as a scholarly endeavor and experts should be encouraged to seek peer review of their opinions and not to testify secretly and in isolation. It is suggested that greater visibility of experts and their testimony (light of day phenomenon) should raise the quality of expert witness testimony and encourage more qualified experts to participate as expert witnesses, thus removing the stigmata usually associated with unqualified expert witnesses. PMID:7133826

  3. Opinion Formation by Social Influence: From Experiments to Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Chacoma, Andrés; Zanette, Damián H.

    2015-01-01

    Predicting different forms of collective behavior in human populations, as the outcome of individual attitudes and their mutual influence, is a question of major interest in social sciences. In particular, processes of opinion formation have been theoretically modeled on the basis of a formal similarity with the dynamics of certain physical systems, giving rise to an extensive collection of mathematical models amenable to numerical simulation or even to exact solution. Empirical ground for these models is however largely missing, which confine them to the level of mere metaphors of the real phenomena they aim at explaining. In this paper we present results of an experiment which quantifies the change in the opinions given by a subject on a set of specific matters under the influence of others. The setup is a variant of a recently proposed experiment, where the subject’s confidence on his or her opinion was evaluated as well. In our realization, which records the quantitative answers of 85 subjects to 20 questions before and after an influence event, the focus is put on characterizing the change in answers and confidence induced by such influence. Similarities and differences with the previous version of the experiment are highlighted. We find that confidence changes are to a large extent independent of any other recorded quantity, while opinion changes are strongly modulated by the original confidence. On the other hand, opinion changes are not influenced by the initial difference with the reference opinion. The typical time scales on which opinion varies are moreover substantially longer than those of confidence change. Experimental results are then used to estimate parameters for a dynamical agent-based model of opinion formation in a large population. In the context of the model, we study the convergence to full consensus and the effect of opinion leaders on the collective distribution of opinions. PMID:26517825

  4. Adaptive capture of expert knowledge

    SciTech Connect

    Barrett, C.L.; Jones, R.D.; Hand, Un Kyong |

    1995-05-01

    A method is introduced that can directly acquire knowledge-engineered, rule-based logic in an adaptive network. This adaptive representation of the rule system can then replace the rule system in simulated intelligent agents and thereby permit further performance-based adaptation of the rule system. The approach described provides both weight-fitting network adaptation and potentially powerful rule mutation and selection mechanisms. Nonlinear terms are generated implicitly in the mutation process through the emergent interaction of multiple linear terms. By this method it is possible to acquire nonlinear relations that exist in the training data without addition of hidden layers or imposition of explicit nonlinear terms in the network. We smoothed and captured a set of expert rules with an adaptive network. The motivation for this was to (1) realize a speed advantage over traditional rule-based simulations; (2) have variability in the intelligent objects not possible by rule-based systems but provided by adaptive systems: and (3) maintain the understandability of rule-based simulations. A set of binary rules was smoothed and converted into a simple set of arithmetic statements, where continuous, non-binary rules are permitted. A neural network, called the expert network, was developed to capture this rule set, which it was able to do with zero error. The expert network is also capable of learning a nonmonotonic term without a hidden layer. The trained network in feedforward operation is fast running, compact, and traceable to the rule base.

  5. Rise of an alternative majority against opinion leaders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tucci, K.; González-Avella, J. C.; Cosenza, M. G.

    2016-03-01

    We investigate the role of opinion leaders or influentials in the collective behavior of a social system. Opinion leaders are characterized by their unidirectional influence on other agents. We employ a model based on Axelrod's dynamics for cultural interaction among social agents that allows for non-interacting states. We find three collective phases in the space of parameters of the system, given by the fraction of opinion leaders and a quantity representing the number of available states: one ordered phase having the state imposed by the leaders; another nontrivial ordered phase consisting of a majority group in a state orthogonal or alternative to that of the opinion leaders, and a disordered phase, where many small groups coexist. We show that the spontaneous rise of an alternative group in the presence of opinion leaders depends on the existence of a minimum number of long-range connections in the underlying network. This phenomenon challenges the common idea that influentials are fundamental to propagation processes in society, such as the formation of public opinion.

  6. Entropic determination of the phase transition in a coevolving opinion-formation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burgos, E.; Hernández, Laura; Ceva, H.; Perazzo, R. P. J.

    2015-03-01

    We study an opinion formation model by the means of a coevolving complex network where the vertices represent the individuals, characterized by their evolving opinions, and the edges represent the interactions among them. The network adapts to the spreading of opinions in two ways: not only connected agents interact and eventually change their thinking but an agent may also rewire one of its links to a neighborhood holding the same opinion as his. The dynamics, based on a global majority rule, depends on an external parameter that controls the plasticity of the network. We show how the information entropy associated to the distribution of group sizes allows us to locate the phase transition between a phase of full consensus and another, where different opinions coexist. We also determine the minimum size of the most informative sampling. At the transition the distribution of the sizes of groups holding the same opinion is scale free.

  7. Effect of Leader's Strategy on Opinion Formation in Networked Societies with Local Interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    The work investigates the influence of leader on opinion formation in artificial networked societies. The strength of the social influence is assumed to be dictated by distance from one agent to another, as well as individual strengths of the agents. The leader is assumed to have much greater resources, which allows him to tune the way he influences the other agents. We study various strategies of using these resources to optimize the conditions needed to "convince" the whole society to leader's opinion. The flexibility of the model allows it to be used in studies of political, social and marketing activities and opinion formation.

  8. Opinions, Conflicts, and Consensus: Modeling Social Dynamics in a Collaborative Environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Török, János; Iñiguez, Gerardo; Yasseri, Taha; San Miguel, Maxi; Kaski, Kimmo; Kertész, János

    2013-02-01

    Information-communication technology promotes collaborative environments like Wikipedia where, however, controversy and conflicts can appear. To describe the rise, persistence, and resolution of such conflicts, we devise an extended opinion dynamics model where agents with different opinions perform a single task to make a consensual product. As a function of the convergence parameter describing the influence of the product on the agents, the model shows spontaneous symmetry breaking of the final consensus opinion represented by the medium. In the case when agents are replaced with new ones at a certain rate, a transition from mainly consensus to a perpetual conflict occurs, which is in qualitative agreement with the scenarios observed in Wikipedia.

  9. Expert system technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prince, Mary Ellen

    1987-01-01

    The expert system is a computer program which attempts to reproduce the problem-solving behavior of an expert, who is able to view problems from a broad perspective and arrive at conclusions rapidly, using intuition, shortcuts, and analogies to previous situations. Expert systems are a departure from the usual artificial intelligence approach to problem solving. Researchers have traditionally tried to develop general modes of human intelligence that could be applied to many different situations. Expert systems, on the other hand, tend to rely on large quantities of domain specific knowledge, much of it heuristic. The reasoning component of the system is relatively simple and straightforward. For this reason, expert systems are often called knowledge based systems. The report expands on the foregoing. Section 1 discusses the architecture of a typical expert system. Section 2 deals with the characteristics that make a problem a suitable candidate for expert system solution. Section 3 surveys current technology, describing some of the software aids available for expert system development. Section 4 discusses the limitations of the latter. The concluding section makes predictions of future trends.

  10. Pattern Selection and Super-Patterns in Opinion Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ben-Naim, Eli; Scheel, Arnd

    We study pattern formation in the bounded confidence model of opinion dynamics. In this random process, opinion is quantified by a single variable. Two agents may interact and reach a fair compromise, but only if their difference of opinion falls below a fixed threshold. Starting from a uniform distribution of opinions with compact support, a traveling wave forms and it propagates from the domain boundary into the unstable uniform state. Consequently, the system reaches a steady state with isolated clusters that are separated by distance larger than the interaction range. These clusters form a quasi-periodic pattern where the sizes of the clusters and the separations between them are nearly constant. We obtain analytically the average separation between clusters L. Interestingly, there are also very small quasi-periodic modulations in the size of the clusters. The spatial periods of these modulations are a series of integers that follow from the continued-fraction representation of the irrational average separation L.

  11. Ethical Expert Systems

    PubMed Central

    Victoroff, Michael S.

    1985-01-01

    The title is a double entendre. The discussion approaches expert systems from two directions: “What ethical hazards are created by expert systems in medicine?” and “Would it be ethical to design an expert system for solving problems in bioethics?” Computers present new ethical problems to society, some of which are unprecedented. These can be categorized under several rubrics. The paper describes a rudimentary scheme for understanding ethical issues raised by computers, in general, and medical expert systems, in particular. It focuses on bioethical implications of AI in medicine; explores norms, assumptions and taboos; and highlights certain ethical pitfalls. Principles are elucidated, for building ethically sound systems. Finally, a proposal is discussed, for the design of an expert system for moral problem solving, and the ethical implications of this notion are analyzed.

  12. Expert networks in CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hruska, S. I.; Dalke, A.; Ferguson, J. J.; Lacher, R. C.

    1991-01-01

    Rule-based expert systems may be structurally and functionally mapped onto a special class of neural networks called expert networks. This mapping lends itself to adaptation of connectionist learning strategies for the expert networks. A parsing algorithm to translate C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) rules into a network of interconnected assertion and operation nodes has been developed. The translation of CLIPS rules to an expert network and back again is illustrated. Measures of uncertainty similar to those rules in MYCIN-like systems are introduced into the CLIPS system and techniques for combining and hiring nodes in the network based on rule-firing with these certainty factors in the expert system are presented. Several learning algorithms are under study which automate the process of attaching certainty factors to rules.

  13. Adaptive feature extraction expert

    SciTech Connect

    Yuschik, M.

    1983-01-01

    The identification of discriminatory features places an upper bound on the recognition rate of any automatic speech recognition (ASR) system. One way to structure the extraction of features is to construct an expert system which applies a set of rules to identify particular properties of the speech patterns. However, these patterns vary for an individual speaker and from speaker to speaker so that another expert is actually needed to learn the new variations. The author investigates the problem by using sets of discriminatory features that are suggested by a feature generation expert, improves the selectivity of these features with a training expert, and finally develops a minimally spanning feature set with a statistical selection expert. 12 references.

  14. Social influences in opinion dynamics: The role of conformity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Javarone, Marco Alberto

    2014-11-01

    We study the effects of social influences in opinion dynamics. In particular, we define a simple model, based on the majority rule voting, in order to consider the role of conformity. Conformity is a central issue in social psychology as it represents one of people’s behaviors that emerges as a result of their interactions. The proposed model represents agents, arranged in a network and provided with an individual behavior, that change opinion in function of those of their neighbors. In particular, agents can behave as conformists or as nonconformists. In the former case, agents change opinion in accordance with the majority of their social circle (i.e., their neighbors); in the latter case, they do the opposite, i.e., they take the minority opinion. Moreover, we investigate the nonconformity both on a global and on a local perspective, i.e., in relation to the whole population and to the social circle of each nonconformist agent, respectively. We perform a computational study of the proposed model, with the aim to observe if and how the conformity affects the related outcomes. Moreover, we want to investigate whether it is possible to achieve some kind of equilibrium, or of order, during the evolution of the system. Results highlight that the amount of nonconformist agents in the population plays a central role in these dynamics. In particular, conformist agents play the role of stabilizers in fully-connected networks, whereas the opposite happens in complex networks. Furthermore, by analyzing complex topologies of the agent network, we found that in the presence of radical nonconformist agents the topology of the system has a prominent role; otherwise it does not matter since we observed that a conformist behavior is almost always more convenient. Finally, we analyze the results of the model by considering that agents can change also their behavior over time, i.e., conformists can become nonconformists and vice versa.

  15. Reducing overconfidence in the interval judgments of experts.

    PubMed

    Speirs-Bridge, Andrew; Fidler, Fiona; McBride, Marissa; Flander, Louisa; Cumming, Geoff; Burgman, Mark

    2010-03-01

    Elicitation of expert opinion is important for risk analysis when only limited data are available. Expert opinion is often elicited in the form of subjective confidence intervals; however, these are prone to substantial overconfidence. We investigated the influence of elicitation question format, in particular the number of steps in the elicitation procedure. In a 3-point elicitation procedure, an expert is asked for a lower limit, upper limit, and best guess, the two limits creating an interval of some assigned confidence level (e.g., 80%). In our 4-step interval elicitation procedure, experts were also asked for a realistic lower limit, upper limit, and best guess, but no confidence level was assigned; the fourth step was to rate their anticipated confidence in the interval produced. In our three studies, experts made interval predictions of rates of infectious diseases (Study 1, n = 21 and Study 2, n = 24: epidemiologists and public health experts), or marine invertebrate populations (Study 3, n = 34: ecologists and biologists). We combined the results from our studies using meta-analysis, which found average overconfidence of 11.9%, 95% CI [3.5, 20.3] (a hit rate of 68.1% for 80% intervals)-a substantial decrease in overconfidence compared with previous studies. Studies 2 and 3 suggest that the 4-step procedure is more likely to reduce overconfidence than the 3-point procedure (Cohen's d = 0.61, [0.04, 1.18]). PMID:20030766

  16. Multi-level tolerance opinion dynamics in military command and control networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Xiao; Shi, Wen; Tan, Gary; Ma, Yaofei

    2015-11-01

    Opinion exchange is useful when a military agent needs to take the opinions of others into account before decision making. Few studies have addressed opinion dynamics in military command and control (C2) organizations, which are often hierarchically ranked in a tree structure. Moreover, military agents should have different tolerance levels when communicating with differentially ranked agents, which is our reasoning for proposing an opinion dynamics model with multi-level tolerance in this study. We can use this model to test opinion dynamics models in depth and further analyze and compare them to traditional tree organizations and other organization forms, including small-world and scale-free networks. Opinion dynamics experiments show that although traditional indices such as a clustering coefficient or the average distance of a small-world network are worse than those of a scale-free network, opinion dynamics indices, which include the number of rounds to fixed opinions, number of opinion clusters, and relative size of the largest small-world cluster are unexpectedly better than those of a scale-free network. Moreover, adding links to a tree network can enhance the tendency to consensus, while a small-world network needs fewer links compared to a scale-free network.

  17. Opinion dynamics in networks with common-neighbors-based connections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Huanjing; Shang, Lihui

    2015-03-01

    We investigate opinion dynamics of the model in which each agent can communicate with local neighbors whose opinions are inside the bound of confidence and meanwhile selecting long-range neighbors according to a common-neighbors rule. The common-neighbors rule means that two agents sharing more neighbors have larger probability to be connected. We find that increasing communication between agents who have common friends will prolong the time needed for the system to reach a consensus state. In contrast, the long-range connections between agents sharing no friends will promote the convergence of the system. The generality of this observation is tested against different system sizes. Simulation results also show that a large number of long-range connections help the system to reach a consensus fast.

  18. Benchmarking expert system tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Riley, Gary

    1988-01-01

    As part of its evaluation of new technologies, the Artificial Intelligence Section of the Mission Planning and Analysis Div. at NASA-Johnson has made timing tests of several expert system building tools. Among the production systems tested were Automated Reasoning Tool, several versions of OPS5, and CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System), an expert system builder developed by the AI section. Also included in the test were a Zetalisp version of the benchmark along with four versions of the benchmark written in Knowledge Engineering Environment, an object oriented, frame based expert system tool. The benchmarks used for testing are studied.

  19. The influence of persuasion in opinion formation and polarization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    La Rocca, C. E.; Braunstein, L. A.; Vazquez, F.

    2014-05-01

    We present a model that explores the influence of persuasion in a population of agents with positive and negative opinion orientations. The opinion of each agent is represented by an integer number k that expresses its level of agreement on a given issue, from totally against k=-M to totally in favor k = M. Same-orientation agents persuade each other with probability p, becoming more extreme, while opposite-orientation agents become more moderate as they reach a compromise with probability q. The population initially evolves to (a) a polarized state for r=p/q\\gt 1 , where opinions' distribution is peaked at the extreme values k=+/- M , or (b) a centralized state for r < 1, with most opinions around k=+/- 1 . When r \\gg 1 , polarization lasts for a time that diverges as r^M \\ln N , where N is the population's size. Finally, an extremist consensus (k = M or -M ) is reached in a time that scales as r^{-1} for r \\ll 1 .

  20. Stochastic opinion formation in scale-free networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartolozzi, M.; Leinweber, D. B.; Thomas, A. W.

    2005-10-01

    The dynamics of opinion formation in large groups of people is a complex nonlinear phenomenon whose investigation is just beginning. Both collective behavior and personal views play an important role in this mechanism. In the present work we mimic the dynamics of opinion formation of a group of agents, represented by two states ±1 , as a stochastic response of each agent to the opinion of his/her neighbors in the social network and to feedback from the average opinion of the whole. In the light of recent studies, a scale-free Barabási-Albert network has been selected to simulate the topology of the interactions. A turbulentlike dynamics, characterized by an intermittent behavior, is observed for a certain range of the model parameters. The problem of uncertainty in decision taking is also addressed both from a topological point of view, using random and targeted removal of agents from the network, and by implementing a three-state model, where the third state, zero, is related to the information available to each agent. Finally, the results of the model are tested against the best known network of social interactions: the stock market. A time series of daily closures of the Dow-Jones index has been used as an indicator of the possible applicability of our model in the financial context. Good qualitative agreement is found.

  1. Opinion Dynamics Driven by Leaders, Media, Viruses and Worms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuncay, Çağlar

    A model on the effects of leader, media, viruses, worms, and other agents on the opinion of individuals is developed and utilized to simulate the formation of consensus in society and price in market via excess between supply and demand. The effects of some time varying drives (harmonic and hyperbolic) are also investigated.

  2. Stochastic opinion formation in scale-free networks

    SciTech Connect

    M. Bartolozzi; D. B. Leinweber; A. W. Thomas

    2005-10-01

    The dynamics of opinion formation in large groups of people is a complex nonlinear phenomenon whose investigation is just beginning. Both collective behavior and personal views play an important role in this mechanism. In the present work we mimic the dynamics of opinion formation of a group of agents, represented by two states 1, as a stochastic response of each agent to the opinion of his/her neighbors in the social network and to feedback from the average opinion of the whole. In the light of recent studies, a scale-free Barabsi-Albert network has been selected to simulate the topology of the interactions. A turbulent-like dynamics, characterized by an intermittent behavior, is observed for a certain range of the model parameters. The problem of uncertainty in decision taking is also addressed both from a topological point of view, using random and targeted removal of agents from the network, and by implementing a three-state model, where the third state, zero, is related to the information available to each agent. Finally, the results of the model are tested against the best known network of social interactions: the stock market. A time series of daily closures of the Dow-Jones index has been used as an indicator of the possible applicability of our model in the financial context. Good qualitative agreement is found.

  3. Communications and Public Opinion: A Public Opinion Quarterly Reader.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carlson, Robert O., Ed.

    The phenomenon of the close relationship between communication and public opinion is shown in this book to have played a major role historically in the measurement of support for political policies, officials, and candidates. The communications media influence public opinion and are subject to it; yet the precise nature and definition of public…

  4. Intelligent Agents as Cognitive Tools for Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baylor, Amy

    1999-01-01

    Examines the educational potential for intelligent agents as cognitive tools. Discusses the role of intelligent agents: managing large amounts of information (information overload), serving as a pedagogical expert, and creating programming environments for the learner. (AEF)

  5. 77 FR 34350 - November 2010 Biological Opinion on the Effects of the Alaska Groundfish Fisheries on Steller Sea...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-06-11

    ...NMFS will host a meeting to conduct a panel review by experts contracted through the Center for Independent Experts (CIE) related to NMFS's November 2010 Biological Opinion on the effects of the Alaska groundfish fisheries on Steller sea lions and other endangered species (Final Biop). The meeting will provide an opportunity for the CIE reviewers to receive presentations from NMFS, the State......

  6. [Medical expert assessment in civil and criminal law--stand for evaluating medical expert assessment].

    PubMed

    Kienzle, H F

    1996-11-01

    The standard for the assessment of the medical expert opinion is defined by the high demands expected from the judgement of a high court: Objectiveness, solid knowledge, self-criticism, in contestability in diction and firmness in the argumentation. From the legal point of view, the knowledge of the medical expert witness has to clearly go beyond the knowledge of his profession. The obligation for objectiveness is the basis of expert witness' activity. From the medical point of view, the physician has to take into account during the preparation of his expert assessment that structural deficiency of the personnel and surgical equipment of a department for surgery frequently plays a role due to the development of surgery to high tech medicine and the hospital physician cannot affect this. It is necessary for a physician as an expert witness to have basic knowledge about the evidence law and the medical liability process. On the other hand, judges and lawyers should basically know the medical way of thinking. PMID:9064929

  7. Jurors' views on the value and objectivity of mental health experts testifying in sexually violent predator trials.

    PubMed

    Boccaccini, Marcus T; Murrie, Daniel C; Turner, Darrel B

    2014-01-01

    Although psychologists and psychiatrists often testify in court, we know relatively little about the extent to which jurors value the testimony they hear from these experts. We surveyed 161 jurors who rendered opinions in 14 sex offender civil commitment trials after hearing testimony from psychologists and psychiatrists serving as expert witnesses. Most jurors reported that the experts they heard testify were honest, and they tended to attribute disagreements among experts to case complexity, as opposed to adversarial allegiance or bias. Most reported that hearing from the experts helped them make better decisions and that experts using risk assessment instruments could make more accurate predictions than those who did not. Jurors were, however, more skeptical about the ability of experts to accurately predict recidivism when they heard testimony from both prosecution and defense experts. Findings suggest that jurors value risk assessment testimony from experts, but that experts must think carefully about how to best make risk assessment instrument results accessible to jurors. PMID:25043830

  8. Safety organizations and experts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mandel, G.; Rubinstein, R. I.; Pinto, J. J.; Meschkow, S. Z.

    1977-01-01

    Handbook lists organizations and experts in specific, well defined areas of safety technology. Special emphasis is given to relevant safety information sources on aircraft fire hazards and aircraft interior flammability.

  9. Sources of correlation between experts: Empirical results from two extremes

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1987-04-01

    Through two studies, this report seeks to identify the sources of correlation, or dependence, between experts' estimates. Expert estimates are relied upon as sources of data whenever experimental data is lacking, such as in risk analyses and reliability assessments. Correlation between experts is a problem in the elicitation and subsequent use of subjective estimates. Until now, there have been no data confirming sources of correlation, although the experts' background is commonly speculated to be one. Two different populations of experts were administered questions in their areas of expertise. Data on their professional backgrounds and means of solving the questions were elicited using techniques from educational psychology and ethnography. The results from both studies indicate that the way in which an expert solves the problem is the major source of correlation. The experts' background can not be shown to be an important source of correlation nor to influence his choice of method for problem solution. From these results, some recommendations are given for the elicitation and use of expert opinion.

  10. Chaotic Modes in Scale Free Opinion Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kusmartsev, Feo V.; Kürten, Karl E.

    In this paper, we investigate processes associated with formation of public opinion in varies directed random, scale free and small-world social networks. The important factor of the opinion formation is the existence of contrarians which were discovered by Granovetter in various social psychology experiments1,2,3 long ago and later introduced in sociophysics by Galam.4 When the density of contrarians increases the system behavior drastically changes at some critical value. At high density of contrarians the system can never arrive to a consensus state and periodically oscillates with different periods depending on specific structure of the network. At small density of the contrarians the behavior is manifold. It depends primary on the initial state of the system. If initially the majority of the population agrees with each other a state of stable majority may be easily reached. However when originally the population is divided in nearly equal parts consensus can never be reached. We model the emergence of collective decision making by considering N interacting agents, whose opinions are described by two state Ising spin variable associated with YES and NO. We show that the dynamical behaviors are very sensitive not only to the density of the contrarians but also to the network topology. We find that a phase of social chaos may arise in various dynamical processes of opinion formation in many realistic models. We compare the prediction of the theory with data describing the dynamics of the average opinion of the USA population collected on a day-by-day basis by varies media sources during the last six month before the final Obama-McCain election. The qualitative ouctome is in reasonable agreement with the prediction of our theory. In fact, the analyses of these data made within the paradigm of our theory indicates that even in this campaign there were chaotic elements where the public opinion migrated in an unpredictable chaotic way. The existence of such a phase

  11. Chaotic Modes in Scale Free Opinion Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kusmartsev, Feo V.; Kürten, Karl E.

    2010-12-01

    In this paper, we investigate processes associated with formation of public opinion in varies directed random, scale free and small-world social networks. The important factor of the opinion formation is the existence of contrarians which were discovered by Granovetter in various social psychology experiments1,2,3 long ago and later introduced in sociophysics by Galam.4 When the density of contrarians increases the system behavior drastically changes at some critical value. At high density of contrarians the system can never arrive to a consensus state and periodically oscillates with different periods depending on specific structure of the network. At small density of the contrarians the behavior is manifold. It depends primary on the initial state of the system. If initially the majority of the population agrees with each other a state of stable majority may be easily reached. However when originally the population is divided in nearly equal parts consensus can never be reached. We model the emergence of collective decision making by considering N interacting agents, whose opinions are described by two state Ising spin variable associated with YES and NO. We show that the dynamical behaviors are very sensitive not only to the density of the contrarians but also to the network topology. We find that a phase of social chaos may arise in various dynamical processes of opinion formation in many realistic models. We compare the prediction of the theory with data describing the dynamics of the average opinion of the USA population collected on a day-by-day basis by varies media sources during the last six month before the final Obama-McCain election. The qualitative ouctome is in reasonable agreement with the prediction of our theory. In fact, the analyses of these data made within the paradigm of our theory indicates that even in this campaign there were chaotic elements where the public opinion migrated in an unpredictable chaotic way. The existence of such a phase

  12. 5 CFR 2636.103 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Advisory opinions. 2636.103 Section 2636... Advisory opinions. (a) Request for an advisory opinion. (1) An employee may request an advisory opinion... any provision contained in this part. (2) An advisory opinion may not be obtained for the purpose...

  13. 5 CFR 2636.103 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Advisory opinions. 2636.103 Section 2636... Advisory opinions. (a) Request for an advisory opinion. (1) An employee may request an advisory opinion... any provision contained in this part. (2) An advisory opinion may not be obtained for the purpose...

  14. 5 CFR 2636.103 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Advisory opinions. 2636.103 Section 2636... Advisory opinions. (a) Request for an advisory opinion. (1) An employee may request an advisory opinion... any provision contained in this part. (2) An advisory opinion may not be obtained for the purpose...

  15. 5 CFR 2636.103 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Advisory opinions. 2636.103 Section 2636... Advisory opinions. (a) Request for an advisory opinion. (1) An employee may request an advisory opinion... any provision contained in this part. (2) An advisory opinion may not be obtained for the purpose...

  16. Expert elicitation on the uncertainties associated with chronic wasting disease.

    PubMed

    Tyshenko, Michael G; Oraby, Tamer; Darshan, Shalu; Westphal, Margit; Croteau, Maxine C; Aspinall, Willy; Elsaadany, Susie; Krewski, Daniel; Cashman, Neil

    2016-01-01

    A high degree of uncertainty exists for chronic wasting disease (CWD) transmission factors in farmed and wild cervids. Evaluating the factors is important as it helps to inform future risk management strategies. Expert opinion is often used to assist decision making in a number of health, science, and technology domains where data may be sparse or missing. Using the "Classical Model" of elicitation, a group of experts was asked to estimate the most likely values for several risk factors affecting CWD transmission. The formalized expert elicitation helped structure the issues and hence provide a rational basis for estimating some transmission risk factors for which evidence is lacking. Considered judgments regarding environmental transmission, latency of CWD transmission, management, and species barrier were provided by the experts. Uncertainties for many items were determined to be large, highlighting areas requiring more research. The elicited values may be used as surrogate values until research evidence becomes available. PMID:27556566

  17. Opinion Formation and Consensus Engineering in Empirical Social Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Qiming; Korniss, Gyorgy; Szymanski, Boleslaw

    2010-03-01

    We study the evolution, formation, and destabilization of opinion clusters in empirical social networks. To that end, we employ the Naming GamefootnotetextBaronchelli et al., J. Stat. Mech.: Theory Exp. P06014 (2006). footnotetextDall'Asta et al., Phys. Rev. E 74, 036105 (2006)., a stylized agent-based model, capturing essential features of agreement dynamics and opinion spreading in social networks. HerefootnotetextQ. Lu, G. Korniss, and B.K. Szymanski, J. Econ. Interact. Coord. 4, 221 (2009)., we focus on on the impact that communities in the underlying social graphs can have on the outcome of the agreement process. We find that networks with strong community structure hinder the system from reaching global agreement; the late-stage behavior of the Naming Game in these networks exhibits clusters of long-living (or metastable) coexisting opinions. We then investigate various methods to destabilize coexisting metastable opinion clusters (in order to reach global consensus), such as node removal or selecting a small-number of well-positioned ``committed" agents who will stick to a preferred opinion without deviation.

  18. Current Opinion on Nanotoxicology

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Nanotechnology is one of the premiere technologies available today, having expanded both as field of scientific study and in the public consciousness. Despite this growth, the drawbacks, limitations and potential safety hazards associated with the incorporation of nanotechnology into existing industries are still being learned. The noticeable point is that there is no enough data available yet to analyze global use of nanotechnology from a meta-perspective. Three challenges can be defined in light of nanotoxicology. One, materials that might prove to be significantly toxic must be identified. Two, a system for the categorization of NP materials must be codified and made available to toxicologists. Third, a better understanding of nanoparticles biological interactions must be obtained, in order to make the best use of the first two goals. For all three, it must be remembered that research standards need to be developed for the gathering of data on the nanoscale, as that level is where the NPs and the patient’s biosystems will be interacting. As requiring toxicologists to become nanotechnology experts would not be feasible, to properly incorporate the care of nanotoxicity into the existing medical framework, a range of experts across multiple fields of study must work in close synchronization. The focus needs to be on mechanism-driven research to ensure a solid scientific foundation for the assessment of NP and their role in healthcare. PMID:23351979

  19. Death caused by cardioinhibitory reflex: what experts believe.

    PubMed

    Schrag, Bettina; Mangin, Patrice; Vaucher, Paul; Bollmann, Marc D

    2012-03-01

    The danger of neck compression without restriction of the arterial flow remains unresolved in forensic medicine. There is an ongoing debate concerning life endangerment due to the cardioinhibitory reflex. The aim of this study was to determine what forensic medical experts believe and how they deal with this reflex. An anonymous electronic questionnaire was sent to 1429 forensic medical experts all over the world. We asked them about their opinion on the cardioinhibitory reflex, its role in causing death, and what their diagnostic criteria were.A total of 182 questionnaires were returned. The experts who answered were from 32 different countries. Our survey showed that 80.2% of experts believe that the cardioinhibitory reflex can theoretically cause death. In the practical application opinions diverge though. Apparently, the practical application mainly depends on the habit of the individual expert. We observed no consensus on the diagnostic criteria to be used. Given the potentially frequent use of the concept of the cardioinhibitory reflex in forensic practice and its judicial impact it would be important to reach a consensus. PMID:22442830

  20. 38 CFR 20.901 - Rule 901. Medical opinions and opinions of the General Counsel.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... opinions and opinions of the General Counsel. 20.901 Section 20.901 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief... § 20.901 Rule 901. Medical opinions and opinions of the General Counsel. (a) Opinion from the Veterans... Pathology opinions. The Board may refer pathologic material to the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology...

  1. Avionic expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Golshani, Forouzan

    1988-01-01

    At the heart of any intelligent flight control system, there is a knowledge based expert system. The efficiency of these knowledge bases is one of the major factors in the success of aviation and space control systems. In the future, the speed and the capabilities of the expert system and their underlying data base(s) will be the limiting factors in the ability to build more accurate real time space controllers. A methodology is proposed for design and construction of such expert systems. It is noted that existing expert systems are inefficient (slow) in dealing with nontrivial real world situations that involve a vast collection of data. However, current data bases, which are fast in handling large amounts of data, cannot carry out intelligent tasks normally expected from an expert system. The system presented provides the power of deduction (reasoning) along with the efficient mechanisms for management of large data bases. In the system, both straight forward evaluation procedures and sophisticated inference mechanisms coexist. The design methodology is based on mathematics and logic, which ensures the correctness of the final product.

  2. Attorneys' requests for complete tax records from opposing expert witnesses: some approaches to the problem.

    PubMed

    Gutheil, Thomas G; Simon, Robert I; Simpson, Skip

    2006-01-01

    As part of an impeachment attempt on cross-examination of opposing expert witnesses in trial or deposition, the cross-examining attorney may request the complete tax records of the expert. It is widely believed that expert witnesses may be expected to express opinions that favor the parties who engage them and who pay their fees. Theoretically, the purpose of this request is an attempt to paint the expert as a "hired gun" whose major source of income is forensic work. The different issues, statutes, and case law citations that bear on requests for tax records are reviewed, and the strategies for coping with this tactic are suggested. PMID:17185482

  3. Interplay between consensus and coherence in a model of interacting opinions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Battiston, Federico; Cairoli, Andrea; Nicosia, Vincenzo; Baule, Adrian; Latora, Vito

    2016-06-01

    The formation of agents' opinions in a social system is the result of an intricate equilibrium among several driving forces. On the one hand, the social pressure exerted by peers favors the emergence of local consensus. On the other hand, the concurrent participation of agents to discussions on different topics induces each agent to develop a coherent set of opinions across all the topics in which he/she is active. Moreover, the pervasive action of external stimuli, such as mass media, pulls the entire population towards a specific configuration of opinions on different topics. Here we propose a model in which agents with interrelated opinions, interacting on several layers representing different topics, tend to spread their own ideas to their neighborhood, strive to maintain internal coherence, due to the fact that each agent identifies meaningful relationships among its opinions on the different topics, and are at the same time subject to external fields, resembling the pressure of mass media. We show that the presence of heterogeneity in the internal coupling assigned by agents to their different opinions allows to obtain states with mixed levels of consensus, still ensuring that all the agents attain a coherent set of opinions. Furthermore, we show that all the observed features of the model are preserved in the presence of thermal noise up to a critical temperature, after which global consensus is no longer attainable. This suggests the relevance of our results for real social systems, where noise is inevitably present in the form of information uncertainty and misunderstandings. The model also demonstrates how mass media can be effectively used to favor the propagation of a chosen set of opinions, thus polarizing the consensus of an entire population.

  4. Autonomous power expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walters, Jerry L.; Petrik, Edward J.; Roth, Mary Ellen; Truong, Long Van; Quinn, Todd; Krawczonek, Walter M.

    1990-01-01

    The Autonomous Power Expert (APEX) system was designed to monitor and diagnose fault conditions that occur within the Space Station Freedom Electrical Power System (SSF/EPS) Testbed. APEX is designed to interface with SSF/EPS testbed power management controllers to provide enhanced autonomous operation and control capability. The APEX architecture consists of three components: (1) a rule-based expert system, (2) a testbed data acquisition interface, and (3) a power scheduler interface. Fault detection, fault isolation, justification of probable causes, recommended actions, and incipient fault analysis are the main functions of the expert system component. The data acquisition component requests and receives pertinent parametric values from the EPS testbed and asserts the values into a knowledge base. Power load profile information is obtained from a remote scheduler through the power scheduler interface component. The current APEX design and development work is discussed. Operation and use of APEX by way of the user interface screens is also covered.

  5. Expert Recommended Strategies for Classroom Management for Beginning Teachers Placed in Hard-to-Staff Schools in Urban School Districts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alexis, Chelly C.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to get the opinion of a panel of experts as to which classroom management strategies should be implemented in urban school district mentoring programs to help beginning teachers who are placed in hard-to-staff schools in Los Angeles County, California. Methodology: This Delphi study included 20 expert mentors…

  6. Non-consensus opinion model with a neutral view on complex networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Zihao; Dong, Gaogao; Du, Ruijin; Ma, Jing

    2016-05-01

    A nonconsensus opinion (NCO) model was introduced recently, which allows the stable coexistence of minority and majority opinions. However, due ​to disparities in the knowledge, experiences, and personality or self-protection of agents, they often remain ​neutral when faced with some opinions in real scenarios. ​To address this issue, we propose a general non-consensus opinion model with neutral view (NCON) ​and we define the dynamic opinion ​change process. We applied the NCON model to different topological networks and studied the formation of opinion clusters. In the case of random graphs, random regular networks, and scale-free (SF) networks, we found that the system moved from a continuous phase transition to a discontinuous phase transition as the connectivity density and exponent of the SF network λ ​decreased and increased in the steady state, respectively. Moreover, the initial proportions of neutral opinions were found to have little effect on the proportional structure of opinions at the steady state. These results suggest that the majority choice between positive and negative opinions depends on the initial proportion of each opinion. The NCON model may have potential applications for decision makers.

  7. Expert Systems Application In Manufacturing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Som, Pradip; Chitturi, Ramesh; Babu, A. J. G.

    1987-05-01

    Expert system, a special branch of Artificial Intelligence finds its way in the domain of manufacturing. This paper presents the basic ideas and features of the expert systems, problems in manufacturing and application of expert systems in manufacturing. As the process planning is an important phase in manufacturing, the suitability of expert systems for process planning area has been highlighted. Several expert systems, developed to solve manufacturing problems are also discussed in the paper.

  8. Expert systems: a classical introduction.

    PubMed

    Semmel, R D

    1988-01-01

    Expert systems are providing a means of solving complex problems that previously defied automation efforts. This paper explains what an expert system is and how one operates. Following a brief description of expert systems, the nature of computer problem-solving and the role of knowledge in that activity are discussed. A typical expert system architecture and common knowledge representation schemes are then described. Finally, the operation of a simple, rule-based expert system is illustrated. PMID:10288417

  9. Discrete Model of Opinion Changes Using Knowledge and Emotions as Control Variables

    PubMed Central

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    2012-01-01

    We present a new model of opinion changes dependent on the agents emotional state and their information about the issue in question. Our goal is to construct a simple, yet nontrivial and flexible representation of individual attitude dynamics for agent based simulations, that could be used in a variety of social environments. The model is a discrete version of the cusp catastrophe model of opinion dynamics in which information is treated as the normal factor while emotional arousal (agitation level determining agent receptiveness and rationality) is treated as the splitting factor. Both variables determine the resulting agent opinion, which itself can be in favor of the studied position, against it, or neutral. Thanks to the flexibility of implementing communication between the agents, the model is potentially applicable in a wide range of situations. As an example of the model application, we study the dynamics of a set of agents communicating among themselves via messages. In the example, we chose the simplest, fully connected communication topology, to focus on the effects of the individual opinion dynamics, and to look for stable final distributions of agents with different emotions, information and opinions. Even for such simplified system, the model shows complex behavior, including phase transitions due to symmetry breaking by external propaganda. PMID:22984516

  10. Integrating expert judgment in veterinary epidemiology: example guidance for disease freedom surveillance.

    PubMed

    Gustafson, L L; Gustafson, D H; Antognoli, M C; Remmenga, M D

    2013-04-01

    Expert opinions supplement empirical data in many epidemiologic assessments. For veterinary disease freedom surveillance, where the geographic scope of concern is often broad, populations subject to change, decisions eminent and empirical data, expert opinion can be a critical component of the decision making process. However, opinion is by definition subjective and the manner in which opinion is sought can impact the quality and reliability of estimates. Group interaction can hinder or improve the estimation process, depending on its facilitation. Further, whether and how validation is conducted can limit or increase acceptance of the resulting model. While the utility of expert opinion is widely recognized in many fields, and the impact of its use or misuse implicit, standards for application to veterinary assessments are not readily available. This paper aims to foster discussion on this influential component of epidemiology, with disease freedom application as a focus. Benefits and concerns attributed to expert judgment and guidelines for its structured elicitation are described, borrowing insights from its long history of use in decision science fields and examples from recent veterinary assessments. PMID:23270791

  11. Expert Cold Structure Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atkins, T.; Demuysere, P.

    2011-05-01

    The EXPERT Program is funded by ESA. The objective of the EXPERT mission is to perform a sub-orbital flight during which measurements of critical aero- thermodynamic phenomena will be obtained by using state-of-the-art instrumentation. As part of the EXPERT Flight Segment, the responsibility of the Cold Structure Development Design, Manufacturing and Validation was committed to the Belgian industrial team SONACA/SABCA. The EXPERT Cold Structure includes the Launcher Adapter, the Bottom Panel, the Upper Panel, two Cross Panels and the Parachute Bay. An additional Launcher Adapter was manufactured for the separation tests. The selected assembly definition and manufacturing technologies ( machined parts and sandwich panels) were dictated classically by the mass and stiffness, but also by the CoG location and the sensitive separation interface. Used as support for the various on-board equipment, the Cold Structure is fixed to but thermally uncoupled from the PM 1000 thermal shield. It is protect on its bottom panel by a thermal blanket. As it is a protoflight, analysis was the main tool for the verification. Low level stiffness and modal analysis tests have also been performed on the Cold Structure equipped with its ballast. It allowed to complete its qualification and to prepare SONACA/SABCA support for the system dynamic tests foreseen in 2011. The structure was finally coated with a thermal control black painting and delivered on time to Thales Alenia Space-Italy end of March 201.

  12. Where Experts Come From.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Horgan, Dianne D.

    Studies of over 100 chess players at varying skill levels and ages show the ways in which experts and nonexperts differ in problem-solving strategies. Important differences are found at all stages of problem solving. The most significant differences appear to be before and after the evaluation of alternatives ("sizing up" the problem, generating…

  13. Experts, Dialects, and Discourse.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bhatt, Rakesh Mohan

    2002-01-01

    Examines "expert" discourse--complexes of signs and practices that organize and legitimize social existence and social reproduction--to demonstrate the ideological process involved in the manufacture of Standard English ideology and its continual duplication as necessitated by the three axiomatic conceptions of the English-sacred imagined…

  14. Expert Systems Research.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duda, Richard O.; Shortliffe, Edward H.

    1983-01-01

    Discusses a class of artificial intelligence computer programs (often called "expert systems" because they address problems normally thought to require human specialists for their solution) intended to serve as consultants for decision making. Also discusses accomplishments (including information systematization in medical diagnosis and geology)…

  15. Role of conviction in nonequilibrium models of opinion formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crokidakis, Nuno; Anteneodo, Celia

    2012-12-01

    We analyze the critical behavior of a class of discrete opinion models in the presence of disorder. Within this class, each agent opinion takes a discrete value (±1 or 0) and its time evolution is ruled by two terms, one representing agent-agent interactions and the other the degree of conviction or persuasion (a self-interaction). The mean-field limit, where each agent can interact evenly with any other, is considered. Disorder is introduced in the strength of both interactions, with either quenched or annealed random variables. With probability p (1-p), a pairwise interaction reflects a negative (positive) coupling, while the degree of conviction also follows a binary probability distribution (two different discrete probability distributions are considered). Numerical simulations show that a nonequilibrium continuous phase transition, from a disordered state to a state with a prevailing opinion, occurs at a critical point pc that depends on the distribution of the convictions, with the transition being spoiled in some cases. We also show how the critical line, for each model, is affected by the update scheme (either parallel or sequential) as well as by the kind of disorder (either quenched or annealed).

  16. [Disease--defence--manipulation: the difficulties in providing forensic-psychiatry opinions].

    PubMed

    Heitzman, Janusz; Opio, Małgorzata; Waszkiewicz-Białek, Ewa

    2008-01-01

    The challenges met by the psychiatrist and the psychologist and the difficulties in providing forensic-psychiatry and forensic-psychology opinions have been reviewed, based on examples. The studied patient was hospitalised 10 times and the forensic-psychiatry opinion passed 15 times during the judiciary process. Different psychiatric diagnoses were made and different soundness of mind were passed. The psychiatric health status were expresses by professors of psychiatry who did not participate directly in passing the forensic-psychiatry opinion. The studied patient was examined by other specialists and assessed by certificating medical doctors with the aim of getting disability pension benefits. The effect of medical certificates and testimonials from different medical doctors were analysed. Analysing this example, revealed the problem of proper formulation of content of medical documents to support the medical diagnosis and declared soundness of mind during the passing of forensic-psychiatry opinion. The doctors treating the patients and doctors passing opinion on the treated patient had a different assessment of the diagnoses and soundness of mind for the studied patients. Irrespective of the immediate aim of the examinations, all professionals providing assessment should mind the consequences of opinions passed by them and especially, the possibility of the opinion being used by the subject to prolong the judiciary process or even avoid legal responsibility. The independence (sovereignty) of the expert requires consideration in the context of prior multiple forensic-psychiatry opinion leaders in the field of psychiatry and the need for the expert to assume an attitude towards these opinions. PMID:19189604

  17. 24 CFR 1710.17 - Advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Advisory opinion. 1710.17 Section... Advisory opinion. (a) General. A developer may request an opinion from the Secretary as to whether an... requests for Advisory Opinions must be accompanied by the following: (1) A $500.00 filing fee submitted...

  18. 38 CFR 14.507 - Opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Opinions. 14.507 Section... COUNSEL, AND MISCELLANEOUS CLAIMS § 14.507 Opinions. (a) A written legal opinion of the General Counsel... been a material change in controlling statute or regulation, a superseding written legal opinion by...

  19. 39 CFR 310.6 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 39 Postal Service 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Advisory opinions. 310.6 Section 310.6 Postal... PRIVATE EXPRESS STATUTES § 310.6 Advisory opinions. An advisory opinion on any question arising under this..., 475 L'Enfant Plaza SW., Washington, DC 20260-1100. A numbered series of advisory opinions is...

  20. 39 CFR 310.6 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 39 Postal Service 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Advisory opinions. 310.6 Section 310.6 Postal... PRIVATE EXPRESS STATUTES § 310.6 Advisory opinions. An advisory opinion on any question arising under this..., 475 L'Enfant Plaza SW., Washington, DC 20260-1100. A numbered series of advisory opinions is...

  1. 24 CFR 1710.17 - Advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 5 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Advisory opinion. 1710.17 Section... Advisory opinion. (a) General. A developer may request an opinion from the Secretary as to whether an... requests for Advisory Opinions must be accompanied by the following: (1) A $500.00 filing fee submitted...

  2. 19 CFR 210.79 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 19 Customs Duties 3 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 210.79 Section 210.79 Customs... ADJUDICATION AND ENFORCEMENT Enforcement Procedures and Advisory Opinions § 210.79 Advisory opinions. (a) Advisory opinions. Upon request of any person, the Commission may, upon such investigation as it...

  3. 5 CFR 1800.3 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Advisory opinions. 1800.3 Section 1800.3... opinions. The Special Counsel is authorized to issue advisory opinions only about political activity of..., subchapter III). A person can seek an advisory opinion from OSC by any of the following methods: (a) By...

  4. 5 CFR 2638.313 - Agency opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Agency opinions. 2638.313 Section 2638... AND EXECUTIVE AGENCY ETHICS PROGRAM RESPONSIBILITIES Formal Advisory Opinion Service § 2638.313 Agency opinions. If the designated agency ethics official issues a written opinion concerning the application...

  5. 38 CFR 14.507 - Opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Opinions. 14.507 Section... COUNSEL, AND MISCELLANEOUS CLAIMS § 14.507 Opinions. (a) A written legal opinion of the General Counsel... been a material change in controlling statute or regulation, a superseding written legal opinion by...

  6. 19 CFR 210.79 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 19 Customs Duties 3 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 210.79 Section 210.79 Customs... ADJUDICATION AND ENFORCEMENT Enforcement Procedures and Advisory Opinions § 210.79 Advisory opinions. (a) Advisory opinions. Upon request of any person, the Commission may, upon such investigation as it...

  7. 5 CFR 2638.313 - Agency opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Agency opinions. 2638.313 Section 2638... AND EXECUTIVE AGENCY ETHICS PROGRAM RESPONSIBILITIES Formal Advisory Opinion Service § 2638.313 Agency opinions. If the designated agency ethics official issues a written opinion concerning the application...

  8. 5 CFR 1800.3 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Advisory opinions. 1800.3 Section 1800.3... opinions. The Special Counsel is authorized to issue advisory opinions only about political activity of..., subchapter III). A person can seek an advisory opinion from OSC by any of the following methods: (a) By...

  9. 19 CFR 210.79 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 19 Customs Duties 3 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 210.79 Section 210.79 Customs... ADJUDICATION AND ENFORCEMENT Enforcement Procedures and Advisory Opinions § 210.79 Advisory opinions. (a) Advisory opinions. Upon request of any person, the Commission may, upon such investigation as it...

  10. 12 CFR 1010.17 - Advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Advisory opinion. 1010.17 Section 1010.17 Banks... Requirements § 1010.17 Advisory opinion. (a) General. A developer may request an opinion from the Director as...) Requirements. All requests for Advisory Opinions must be accompanied by the following: (1) A $500.00 filing...

  11. 39 CFR 310.6 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 39 Postal Service 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Advisory opinions. 310.6 Section 310.6 Postal... PRIVATE EXPRESS STATUTES § 310.6 Advisory opinions. An advisory opinion on any question arising under this..., 475 L'Enfant Plaza SW., Washington, DC 20260-1100. A numbered series of advisory opinions is...

  12. 39 CFR 310.6 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 39 Postal Service 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Advisory opinions. 310.6 Section 310.6 Postal... PRIVATE EXPRESS STATUTES § 310.6 Advisory opinions. An advisory opinion on any question arising under this..., 475 L'Enfant Plaza SW., Washington, DC 20260-1100. A numbered series of advisory opinions is...

  13. 5 CFR 2638.313 - Agency opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Agency opinions. 2638.313 Section 2638... AND EXECUTIVE AGENCY ETHICS PROGRAM RESPONSIBILITIES Formal Advisory Opinion Service § 2638.313 Agency opinions. If the designated agency ethics official issues a written opinion concerning the application...

  14. 38 CFR 14.507 - Opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Opinions. 14.507 Section... COUNSEL, AND MISCELLANEOUS CLAIMS § 14.507 Opinions. (a) A written legal opinion of the General Counsel... been a material change in controlling statute or regulation, a superseding written legal opinion by...

  15. 38 CFR 14.507 - Opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Opinions. 14.507 Section... COUNSEL, AND MISCELLANEOUS CLAIMS § 14.507 Opinions. (a) A written legal opinion of the General Counsel... been a material change in controlling statute or regulation, a superseding written legal opinion by...

  16. 5 CFR 1800.3 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Advisory opinions. 1800.3 Section 1800.3... opinions. The Special Counsel is authorized to issue advisory opinions only about political activity of..., subchapter III). A person can seek an advisory opinion from OSC by any of the following methods: (a) By...

  17. 5 CFR 2638.313 - Agency opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Agency opinions. 2638.313 Section 2638... AND EXECUTIVE AGENCY ETHICS PROGRAM RESPONSIBILITIES Formal Advisory Opinion Service § 2638.313 Agency opinions. If the designated agency ethics official issues a written opinion concerning the application...

  18. 5 CFR 2638.313 - Agency opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Agency opinions. 2638.313 Section 2638... AND EXECUTIVE AGENCY ETHICS PROGRAM RESPONSIBILITIES Formal Advisory Opinion Service § 2638.313 Agency opinions. If the designated agency ethics official issues a written opinion concerning the application...

  19. 19 CFR 210.79 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 19 Customs Duties 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 210.79 Section 210.79 Customs... ADJUDICATION AND ENFORCEMENT Enforcement Procedures and Advisory Opinions § 210.79 Advisory opinions. (a) Advisory opinions. Upon request of any person, the Commission may, upon such investigation as it...

  20. 12 CFR 1010.17 - Advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Advisory opinion. 1010.17 Section 1010.17 Banks... Requirements § 1010.17 Advisory opinion. (a) General. A developer may request an opinion from the Director as...) Requirements. All requests for Advisory Opinions must be accompanied by the following: (1) A $500.00 filing...

  1. 12 CFR 1010.17 - Advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Advisory opinion. 1010.17 Section 1010.17 Banks... Requirements § 1010.17 Advisory opinion. (a) General. A developer may request an opinion from the Director as...) Requirements. All requests for Advisory Opinions must be accompanied by the following: (1) A $500.00 filing...

  2. 39 CFR 310.6 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 39 Postal Service 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Advisory opinions. 310.6 Section 310.6 Postal... PRIVATE EXPRESS STATUTES § 310.6 Advisory opinions. An advisory opinion on any question arising under this..., 475 L'Enfant Plaza SW., Washington, DC 20260-1100. A numbered series of advisory opinions is...

  3. 24 CFR 1710.17 - Advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 5 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Advisory opinion. 1710.17 Section... Advisory opinion. (a) General. A developer may request an opinion from the Secretary as to whether an... requests for Advisory Opinions must be accompanied by the following: (1) A $500.00 filing fee submitted...

  4. 5 CFR 1800.3 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Advisory opinions. 1800.3 Section 1800.3... opinions. The Special Counsel is authorized to issue advisory opinions only about political activity of..., subchapter III). A person can seek an advisory opinion from OSC by any of the following methods: (a) By...

  5. 19 CFR 210.79 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 19 Customs Duties 3 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 210.79 Section 210.79 Customs... ADJUDICATION AND ENFORCEMENT Enforcement Procedures and Advisory Opinions § 210.79 Advisory opinions. (a) Advisory opinions. Upon request of any person, the Commission may, upon such investigation as it...

  6. 5 CFR 1800.3 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Advisory opinions. 1800.3 Section 1800.3... opinions. The Special Counsel is authorized to issue advisory opinions only about political activity of..., subchapter III). A person can seek an advisory opinion from OSC by any of the following methods: (a) By...

  7. 24 CFR 1710.17 - Advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 5 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Advisory opinion. 1710.17 Section... Advisory opinion. (a) General. A developer may request an opinion from the Secretary as to whether an... requests for Advisory Opinions must be accompanied by the following: (1) A $500.00 filing fee submitted...

  8. 38 CFR 14.507 - Opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Opinions. 14.507 Section... COUNSEL, AND MISCELLANEOUS CLAIMS § 14.507 Opinions. (a) A written legal opinion of the General Counsel... been a material change in controlling statute or regulation, a superseding written legal opinion by...

  9. Nursing opinion leadership: a preliminary model derived from philosophic theories of rational belief.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Christine A; Whall, Ann L

    2013-10-01

    Opinion leaders are informal leaders who have the ability to influence others' decisions about adopting new products, practices or ideas. In the healthcare setting, the importance of translating new research evidence into practice has led to interest in understanding how opinion leaders could be used to speed this process. Despite continued interest, gaps in understanding opinion leadership remain. Agent-based models are computer models that have proven to be useful for representing dynamic and contextual phenomena such as opinion leadership. The purpose of this paper is to describe the work conducted in preparation for the development of an agent-based model of nursing opinion leadership. The aim of this phase of the model development project was to clarify basic assumptions about opinions, the individual attributes of opinion leaders and characteristics of the context in which they are effective. The process used to clarify these assumptions was the construction of a preliminary nursing opinion leader model, derived from philosophical theories about belief formation. PMID:24034158

  10. POC caster: Broadcasting Agent Using Conversational Representation for Internet Community

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kubota, Hidekazu; Yamashita, Kouji; Fukuhara, Tomohiro; Nishida, Toyoaki

    We propose a broadcating agent system called {\\it POC caster} that generates understandable conversational representation from heterogeneous text-based opinions. POC caster introduces an opinion of a community member by a conversational method in Public Opinion Channel(POC) that is an interactive broadcasting system supporting community knowledge creation. The way to generate conversational representation from an opinion is consist of two processes. The first process is an analysis of an intention of the opinion by referring the last word of a sentence. The second process is applying some rules about intentions and positions of the sentences to make an understandable conversation. The psychological experiments about understandability of generated conversations are described.

  11. Neuropsychologist experts and neurolaw: cases, controversies, and admissibility challenges.

    PubMed

    Kaufmann, Paul M

    2013-01-01

    Clinical neuropsychologists engage increasingly in forensic consulting activities because such expert opinions are generally relevant, reliable and helpful in resolving certain legal claims, especially those related to traumatic brain injury. Consequently, practitioners of law, medicine and psychology would benefit from understanding the nature of neuropsychological evidence, the standards for its admissibility, and its expanding role in neurolaw. This article reviews important evidentiary rules regulating relevance, preliminary questions, and expert testimony, while tracing federal key court decisions and progeny. Civil and criminal cases are detailed to illustrate the application of these rules and case law to neuropsychological evidence, with suggestions for overcoming motions to exclude such evidence. Expert neuropsychologists have a role in forensic consultation on brain trauma cases, even as the interdisciplinary dialog and understanding among law, medicine, and psychology continues to expand. PMID:24115139

  12. Make yourself an expert.

    PubMed

    Leonard, Dorothy; Barton, Gavin; Barton, Michelle

    2013-04-01

    Almost every organization has people it can't do without--specialists with "deep smarts," who are the go-to experts on critical issues. But because their knowledge is experienced-based, it's often instinctive and unarticulated, and never gets passed on. Capturing it is a challenge for both the organization and for colleagues who wish to become in-house authorities themselves. This article offers a methodical system for acquiring deep smarts from an expert. It involves observing that person extensively to understand what makes him successful, practicing the behaviors he exhibits on your own, partnering with him to solve problems, and ultimately taking responsibility for some of his tasks. Describing the experiences of one executive as she takes this journey with a mentor, the authors show how you too can gain the wisdom that will make you indispensable to your firm. PMID:23593772

  13. Bioethics for Technical Experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asano, Shigetaka

    Along with rapidly expanding applications of life science and technology, technical experts have been implicated more and more often with ethical, social, and legal problems than before. It should be noted that in this background there are scientific and social uncertainty elements which are inevitable during the progress of life science in addition to the historically-established social unreliability to scientists and engineers. In order to solve these problems, therefore, we should establish the social governance with ‘relief’ and ‘reliance’ which enables for both citizens and engineers to share the awareness of the issues, to design social orders and criterions based on hypothetical sense of values for bioethics, to carry out practical use management of each subject carefully, and to improve the sense of values from hypothetical to universal. Concerning these measures, the technical experts can learn many things from the present performance in the medical field.

  14. ALICE Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ionita, C.; Carena, F.

    2014-06-01

    The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in different system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by regular shifters during the next data taking period.

  15. Towards a Fuzzy Expert System on Toxicological Data Quality Assessment.

    PubMed

    Yang, Longzhi; Neagu, Daniel; Cronin, Mark T D; Hewitt, Mark; Enoch, Steven J; Madden, Judith C; Przybylak, Katarzyna

    2013-01-01

    Quality assessment (QA) requires high levels of domain-specific experience and knowledge. QA tasks for toxicological data are usually performed by human experts manually, although a number of quality evaluation schemes have been proposed in the literature. For instance, the most widely utilised Klimisch scheme1 defines four data quality categories in order to tag data instances with respect to their qualities; ToxRTool2 is an extension of the Klimisch approach aiming to increase the transparency and harmonisation of the approach. Note that the processes of QA in many other areas have been automatised by employing expert systems. Briefly, an expert system is a computer program that uses a knowledge base built upon human expertise, and an inference engine that mimics the reasoning processes of human experts to infer new statements from incoming data. In particular, expert systems have been extended to deal with the uncertainty of information by representing uncertain information (such as linguistic terms) as fuzzy sets under the framework of fuzzy set theory and performing inferences upon fuzzy sets according to fuzzy arithmetic. This paper presents an experimental fuzzy expert system for toxicological data QA which is developed on the basis of the Klimisch approach and the ToxRTool in an effort to illustrate the power of expert systems to toxicologists, and to examine if fuzzy expert systems are a viable solution for QA of toxicological data. Such direction still faces great difficulties due to the well-known common challenge of toxicological data QA that "five toxicologists may have six opinions". In the meantime, this challenge may offer an opportunity for expert systems because the construction and refinement of the knowledge base could be a converging process of different opinions which is of significant importance for regulatory policy making under the regulation of REACH, though a consensus may never be reached. Also, in order to facilitate the implementation

  16. Opinion survey: materials management and purchasing habits.

    PubMed

    1988-01-01

    This opinion survey was undertaken to gauge the current status of materials management and purchasing departments at hospitals throughout the southern and southeastern United States. The survey was based on lengthy telephone interviews (from 30 to 60 minutes) and followup discussions with materials managers, purchasing agents and administrators. Interviews covered a variety of topics, including: cost-containment strategies; group purchasing and consignment purchasing; and current and anticipated trends in materials management. Many questions were left open-ended, so the survey could gauge attitudes, as well as determine contemporary practices and procedures. (In some cases, respondents were also given the opportunity to comment on the statements of their peers, in order to corroborate and substantiate data.) PMID:10291314

  17. Radiation countermeasure agents: an update (2011 – 2014)

    PubMed Central

    Newman, Victoria L; Romaine, Patricia LP; Wise, Stephen Y; Seed, Thomas M

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Despite significant scientific advances over the past 60 years towards the development of a safe, nontoxic and effective radiation countermeasure for the acute radiation syndrome (ARS), no drug has been approved by the US FDA. A radiation countermeasure to protect the population at large from the effects of lethal radiation exposure remains a significant unmet medical need of the US citizenry and, thus, has been recognized as a high priority area by the government. Area covered This article reviews relevant publications and patents for recent developments and progress for potential ARS treatments in the area of radiation countermeasures. Emphasis is placed on the advanced development of existing agents since 2011 and new agents identified as radiation countermeasure for ARS during this period. Expert opinion A number of promising radiation countermeasures are currently under development, seven of which have received US FDA investigational new drug status for clinical investigation. Four of these agents, CBLB502, Ex-RAD, HemaMax and OrbeShield, are progressing with large animal studies and clinical trials. G-CSF has high potential and well-documented therapeutic effects in countering myelosuppression and may receive full licensing approval by the US FDA in the future. PMID:25315070

  18. The Undecided Have the Key: Interaction-Driven Opinion Dynamics in a Three State Model.

    PubMed

    Balenzuela, Pablo; Pinasco, Juan Pablo; Semeshenko, Viktoriya

    2015-01-01

    The effects of interpersonal interactions on individual's agreements result in a social aggregation process which is reflected in the formation of collective states, as for instance, groups of individuals with a similar opinion about a given issue. This field, which has been a longstanding concern of sociologists and psychologists, has been extended into an area of experimental social psychology, and even has attracted the attention of physicists and mathematicians. In this article, we present a novel model of opinion formation in which agents may either have a strict preference for a choice, or be undecided. The opinion shift emerges, in a threshold process, as a consequence of a cumulative persuasion for either one of the two opinions in repeated interactions. There are two main ingredients which play key roles in determining the steady states: the initial fraction of undecided agents and the change in agents' persuasion after each interaction. As a function of these two parameters, the model presents a wide range of solutions, among which there are consensus of each opinion and bi-polarization. We found that a minimum fraction of undecided agents is not crucial for reaching consensus only, but also to determine a dominant opinion in a polarized situation. In order to gain a deeper comprehension of the dynamics, we also present the theoretical framework of the model. The master equations are of special interest for their nontrivial properties and difficulties in being solved analytically. PMID:26436421

  19. Analysis of cases of forensic veterinary opinions produced in a research and teaching unit.

    PubMed

    Listos, Piotr; Gryzinska, Magdalena; Kowalczyk, Marek

    2015-11-01

    The aim of the study was to present the results of necropsies carried out in the years 2000-2014 in the Department of Pathological Anatomy, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Life Sciences in Lublin. The material used for the analysis consisted of expert opinions prepared on the basis of a decision by a judicial body to admit an expert opinion as evidence. An increase was observed in the demand for the services of veterinary forensic experts, beginning in 2006 and persisting through 2014. The response to the growing popularity of veterinary forensic examinations should be systematization of knowledge and exchange of experience, which would enable the further development of this interdisciplinary science. PMID:26408394

  20. Heat exchanger demonstration expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bagby, D. G.; Cormier, R. A.

    1988-01-01

    A real-time expert system intended for detecting and diagnosing faults in a 20 kW microwave transmitter heat exchanger is described. The expert system was developed on a LISP machine, Incorporated (LMI), Lambda Plus computer using Process Intelligent Control (PICON) software. The Heat Exhanger Expert System was tested and debugged. Future applications and extensions of the expert system to transmitters, masers, and antenna subassemblies are discussed.

  1. Heat exchanger demonstration expert system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagby, D. G.; Cormier, R. A.

    1988-05-01

    A real-time expert system intended for detecting and diagnosing faults in a 20 kW microwave transmitter heat exchanger is described. The expert system was developed on a LISP machine, Incorporated (LMI), Lambda Plus computer using Process Intelligent Control (PICON) software. The Heat Exhanger Expert System was tested and debugged. Future applications and extensions of the expert system to transmitters, masers, and antenna subassemblies are discussed.

  2. Expert and Knowledge Based Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Demaid, Adrian; Edwards, Lyndon

    1987-01-01

    Discusses the nature and current state of knowledge-based systems and expert systems. Describes an expert system from the viewpoints of a computer programmer and an applications expert. Addresses concerns related to materials selection and forecasts future developments in the teaching of materials engineering. (ML)

  3. Distinctive Qualities of Expert Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tsui, Amy B. M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper attempts to identify the distinctive qualities of successful veteran teachers, referred to as "expert teachers", which separates them not only from novice teachers but more importantly from experienced non-expert teachers. Based on earlier case studies, this paper maintains that the critical differences between expert and non-expert…

  4. Community Size, Perceptions of Majority Opinion and Opinion Expression.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salmon, Charles T.; Oshagan, Hayg

    A study examined structural determinants of opinion expression by merging two theoretical perspectives: the "spiral of silence" model advanced by Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann, and the structural approach to communication research offered by Phillip Tichenor, George Donohue, and Clarice Olien. The study also distinguished between different forms of…

  5. The imported forensic expert

    SciTech Connect

    Larson, C.P.

    1980-09-01

    A review of the experiences of one of the pioneer forensic pathologists in the United States offers an interesting insight into the possibilities of private forensic pathology in America. The author's experience includes serving as President of the National Boxing Association and the International Boxing Association, during which time he made many improvements in ring safety. His research into several areas of cases of product liability offer an insight to the wide scope of the potential of the forensic expert. This presentation reviews his activities in realms widely afield from medicine.

  6. Bipartite opinion forming: Towards consensus over coopetition networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hou, Bo; Chen, Yao; Liu, Guangbin; Sun, Fuchun; Li, Hongbo

    2015-12-01

    Within the framework of signed graph and multi-agent systems, this paper investigates the distributed bipartite opinion forming problem over coopetition networks. Several sufficient algebraic and geometric topology conditions that guarantee consensus, regardless of the magnitudes of individual coupling strengths among the agents, have been derived by exploring the interaction direction patterns. All the criteria presented do not require the global knowledge of the coupling weights of the entire network, and thus are easier to check. The effectiveness of the theoretical results are illustrated by numerical examples.

  7. Mandate Consultant: An Expert System for Examining the Implementation of Special Education Regulations. Technical Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parry, James D.; And Others

    The role of artificial intelligence expert systems in administrative issues in special education is examined. Mandate Consultant (MC) is one such system designed to provide a second opinion on the consistency of school officials' actions in implementing the Individualized Education Program team process. MC employs rules based on the Education For…

  8. How experts gain influence.

    PubMed

    Mikes, Anette; Hall, Matthew; Millo, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    In theory, the risk management groups of two British banks--Saxon and Anglo--had the same influence in their organizations. But in practice, they did not: Saxon's was engaged in critical work throughout the bank, while Anglo's had little visibility outside its areas of expertise. In their study of these two financial institutions, the authors identified four competencies--trailblazing, toolmaking, teamwork, and translation--that help functional leaders or groups compete for top management's limited attention and increase their impact. Anglo's risk managers were strong in only some of the competencies, but Saxon's were strong in all four. They consistently scanned the internal and external environment for important issues to which they could apply a risk management perspective (trailblazing) and then developed tools--such as quarterly risk reports--that spread their expertise (toolmaking). While controlling the tools' design and implementation, the risk managers incorporated business managers' insights (teamwork) and made sure everyone could understand the findings (translation). Ultimately, experts' roles must fit the organization's strategy and structural needs. In some situations, functional experts can raise their profile by cultivating just two of the competencies. But those who are strong in all four are likely to be the most influential. PMID:24730171

  9. Confessions and expert testimony.

    PubMed

    Weiss, Kenneth J

    2003-01-01

    In this clinical paper, the author discusses criminal confessions from the point of view of the expert witness who may be asked to comment on the reliability of the statement and waiver of rights. From the time a suspect is in police custody, constitutional protections against self-incrimination and for due process are in place. The Supreme Court set the standard for these situations in the 1966 Miranda v. Arizona decision. Although it has long been criticized by law enforcement, the decision was upheld in the 2000 decision in Dickerson v. U.S. For a waiver of rights to be valid, it must be a knowing, intelligent, and voluntary decision. Voluntariness is an equation of objective and subjective variables. Treatment by police, physical conditions of interrogation, the suspect's experience and mental state can alter the reliability of a confession. Accordingly, the author has devised a mnemonic for the recognition of conditions that may give rise to expert testimony. The conditions are: Mental illness, Intoxication, Retardation, Acquiescence, Narcotic withdrawal, Deception, and Abuse. These are discussed, supported by examples from the author's practice. PMID:14974801

  10. Autonomous power expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ringer, Mark J.; Quinn, Todd M.

    1990-01-01

    The goal of the Autonomous Power System (APS) program is to develop and apply intelligent problem solving and control technologies to the Space Station Freedom Electrical Power Systems (SSF/EPS). The objectives of the program are to establish artificial intelligence/expert system technology paths, to create knowledge based tools with advanced human-operator interfaces, and to integrate and interface knowledge-based and conventional control schemes. This program is being developed at the NASA-Lewis. The APS Brassboard represents a subset of a 20 KHz Space Station Power Management And Distribution (PMAD) testbed. A distributed control scheme is used to manage multiple levels of computers and switchgear. The brassboard is comprised of a set of intelligent switchgear used to effectively switch power from the sources to the loads. The Autonomous Power Expert System (APEX) portion of the APS program integrates a knowledge based fault diagnostic system, a power resource scheduler, and an interface to the APS Brassboard. The system includes knowledge bases for system diagnostics, fault detection and isolation, and recommended actions. The scheduler autonomously assigns start times to the attached loads based on temporal and power constraints. The scheduler is able to work in a near real time environment for both scheduling and dynamic replanning.

  11. Autonomous power expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ringer, Mark J.; Quinn, Todd M.

    1990-01-01

    The goal of the Autonomous Power System (APS) program is to develop and apply intelligent problem solving and control technologies to the Space Station Freedom Electrical Power Systems (SSF/EPS). The objectives of the program are to establish artificial intelligence/expert system technology paths, to create knowledge based tools with advanced human-operator interfaces, and to integrate and interface knowledge-based and conventional control schemes. This program is being developed at the NASA-Lewis. The APS Brassboard represents a subset of a 20 KHz Space Station Power Management And Distribution (PMAD) testbed. A distributed control scheme is used to manage multiple levels of computers and switchgear. The brassboard is comprised of a set of intelligent switchgear used to effectively switch power from the sources to the loads. The Autonomous Power Expert System (APEX) portion of the APS program integrates a knowledge based fault diagnostic system, a power resource scheduler, and an interface to the APS Brassboard. The system includes knowledge bases for system diagnostics, fault detection and isolation, and recommended actions. The scheduler autonomously assigns start times to the attached loads based on temporal and power constraints. The scheduler is able to work in a near real time environment for both scheduling an dynamic replanning.

  12. Socioeconophysics:. Opinion Dynamics for Number of Transactions and Price, a Trader Based Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuncay, Çağlar

    Involving effects of media, opinion leader and other agents on the opinion of individuals of market society, a trader based model is developed and utilized to simulate price via supply and demand. Pronounced effects are considered with several weights and some personal differences between traders are taken into account. Resulting time series and probabilty distribution function involving a power law for price come out similar to the real ones.

  13. National Opinion Poll: Education, 2002.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bositis, David A.

    In 2002, a national opinion poll of 2,463 U.S. adults examined such topics as politics, education, crime and criminal justice policy, globalization, international relations, and race relations. The education poll focused on such issues as school quality, school safety, school vouchers, school violence, and same-sex education. The survey sample…

  14. A Survey of Student Opinion.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroll, Herman M.

    An important area of concern to university faculties and administrators is the effect upon students of the college environment. Are students pleased or dissatisfied? What is the source of their approval or dissatisfaction? The University of Wisconsin Center System sponsored a comprehensive system-wide survey of student opinion in 1975 for the…

  15. Opinion: Writing for the Public

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rose, Mike

    2010-01-01

    For the past twenty years or so, the author has been fortunate to write for a fairly broad audience. While he was teaching, or running an educational program, or doing research, he was also composing opinion pieces or commentaries about the work he was doing. This process of writing with part of his attention on the classroom or research site and…

  16. Student Opinion of Tutorial CAL.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Whiting, John

    1986-01-01

    Describes program design and presents undergraduate students' opinions of computer tutorial--"GROWTH"--used to replace teachers in mastery learning experience. Student reactions were favorable to the program, which stimulated small tutorial group formation. Although females and younger students had more difficulty answering program questions, they…

  17. Impact of informal networks on opinion dynamics in hierarchically formal organization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Xiao; Shi, Wen; Ma, Yaofei; Yang, Chen

    2015-10-01

    Traditional opinion dynamics model focused mainly on the conditions under which a group of agents would reach a consensus. Conclusion has been gained that continuous opinion dynamics are subject to the constraint that convergent opinion adjustment only proceeds when opinion difference is below a given tolerance. This conclusion is useful but neglected the fact that an organization often consists of overlapped networks including formally hierarchical network and small-world/scale-free informal networks. To study the impact of different types of informal networks on converging speed or the number of opinion clusters, four typical types of informal networks (small-world, scale-free, tree and fully connected) are modeled and proposed as complements to formal communications. Experiments to compare formal network and hybrid networks are then carried out. It is observed that opinion dynamics with supplemented communications of informal networks can benefit convergence speed and reduce opinion clusters. More importantly, it is revealed that three key factors of informal networks affect their impact on formal network. These factors of informal network in descending orders are: agents' tolerances, scale and number of links.

  18. [To attach importance to expert commentary and to grasp the orientation in academic development].

    PubMed

    He, Shouzhi

    2014-10-01

    The purpose of this article is to make authors and readers master some writing and reading skills by elaborating the definition, characteristics, the comparison of style and writing technique of expert commentary. Expert commentary is journal editorial that is not only author's personal point of view, but also the collective opinions of Ophthalmology Branch of the Chinese Medical Association and editorial board of the magazine. Therefore, it should be view clear, clear-cut stand and having certain academic orientation. It is our common responsibility to promote the academic development of ophthalmology in China, by mobilizing various aspects strength, carefully written and read expert commentary. PMID:25547570

  19. Executing CLIPS expert systems in a distributed environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, James; Myers, Leonard

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes a framework for running cooperating agents in a distributed environment to support the Intelligent Computer Aided Design System (ICADS), a project in progress at the CAD Research Unit of the Design Institute at the California Polytechnic State University. Currently, the systems aids an architectural designer in creating a floor plan that satisfies some general architectural constraints and project specific requirements. At the core of ICADS is the Blackboard Control System. Connected to the blackboard are any number of domain experts called Intelligent Design Tools (IDT). The Blackboard Control System monitors the evolving design as it is being drawn and helps resolve conflicts from the domain experts. The user serves as a partner in this system by manipulating the floor plan in the CAD system and validating recommendations made by the domain experts. The primary components of the Blackboard Control System are two expert systems executed by a modified CLIPS shell. The first is the Message Handler. The second is the Conflict Resolver. The Conflict Resolver synthesizes the suggestions made by the domain experts, which can be either CLIPS expert systems, or compiled C programs. In DEMO1, the current ICADS prototype, the CLIPS domain expert systems are Acoustics, Lighting, Structural, and Thermal; the compiled C domain experts are the CAD system and the User Interface.

  20. The Undecided Have the Key: Interaction-Driven Opinion Dynamics in a Three State Model

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The effects of interpersonal interactions on individual’s agreements result in a social aggregation process which is reflected in the formation of collective states, as for instance, groups of individuals with a similar opinion about a given issue. This field, which has been a longstanding concern of sociologists and psychologists, has been extended into an area of experimental social psychology, and even has attracted the attention of physicists and mathematicians. In this article, we present a novel model of opinion formation in which agents may either have a strict preference for a choice, or be undecided. The opinion shift emerges, in a threshold process, as a consequence of a cumulative persuasion for either one of the two opinions in repeated interactions. There are two main ingredients which play key roles in determining the steady states: the initial fraction of undecided agents and the change in agents’ persuasion after each interaction. As a function of these two parameters, the model presents a wide range of solutions, among which there are consensus of each opinion and bi-polarization. We found that a minimum fraction of undecided agents is not crucial for reaching consensus only, but also to determine a dominant opinion in a polarized situation. In order to gain a deeper comprehension of the dynamics, we also present the theoretical framework of the model. The master equations are of special interest for their nontrivial properties and difficulties in being solved analytically. PMID:26436421

  1. Phase transitions in Nowak Sznajd opinion dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wołoszyn, Maciej; Stauffer, Dietrich; Kułakowski, Krzysztof

    2007-05-01

    The Nowak modification of the Sznajd opinion dynamics model on the square lattice assumes that with probability β the opinions flip due to mass-media advertising from down to up, and vice versa. Besides, with probability α the Sznajd rule applies that a neighbour pair agreeing in its two opinions convinces all its six neighbours of that opinion. Our Monte Carlo simulations and mean-field theory find sharp phase transitions in the parameter space.

  2. Expert System Software

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1989-01-01

    C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) is a software shell for developing expert systems is designed to allow research and development of artificial intelligence on conventional computers. Originally developed by Johnson Space Center, it enables highly efficient pattern matching. A collection of conditions and actions to be taken if the conditions are met is built into a rule network. Additional pertinent facts are matched to the rule network. Using the program, E.I. DuPont de Nemours & Co. is monitoring chemical production machines; California Polytechnic State University is investigating artificial intelligence in computer aided design; Mentor Graphics has built a new Circuit Synthesis system, and Brooke and Brooke, a law firm, can determine which facts from a file are most important.

  3. What six experts say

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-02-01

    Six experts with backgrounds in government, business, and research describe how the energy problem should be handled. John F. O'Leary feels we need to give more attention to the interdependencies of the global energy equation and to the political and financial mechanism for developing conventional as well as unconventional resources. Hans H. Lansberg advocates and outlines a crash program for energy independence, while Steven C. Wilson recommends individual self-sufficiency and decentralization. Reducing oil imports by replacing price control with financial incentives to invest in heavy energy-saving programs are suggested by Robert C. Stobaugh. Fred L. Hartley would accomplish this by allowing the energy industry to operate in a free market. Amory Lovins suggests improving efficiency and emphasizing soft-energy technologies. (DCK)

  4. Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

  5. Expert elicitation for a national-level volcano hazard model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bebbington, Mark; Stirling, Mark; Cronin, Shane; Wang, Ting; Jolly, Gill

    2016-04-01

    The quantification of volcanic hazard at national level is a vital pre-requisite to placing volcanic risk on a platform that permits meaningful comparison with other hazards such as earthquakes. New Zealand has up to a dozen dangerous volcanoes, with the usual mixed degrees of knowledge concerning their temporal and spatial eruptive history. Information on the 'size' of the eruptions, be it in terms of VEI, volume or duration, is sketchy at best. These limitations and the need for a uniform approach lend themselves to a subjective hazard analysis via expert elicitation. Approximately 20 New Zealand volcanologists provided estimates for the size of the next eruption from each volcano and, conditional on this, its location, timing and duration. Opinions were likewise elicited from a control group of statisticians, seismologists and (geo)chemists, all of whom had at least heard the term 'volcano'. The opinions were combined via the Cooke classical method. We will report on the preliminary results from the exercise.

  6. Opinion formation with upper and lower bounds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yano, Ryosuke; Martin, Arnaud

    2015-12-01

    We investigate the opinion formation with upper and lower bounds. We formulate the binary exchange of opinions between two peoples under the second (or political) party using the relativistic inelastic-Boltzmann-Vlasov equation with randomly perturbed motion. In this paper, we discuss the relativistic effects on the opinion formation of peoples from the standpoint of the relativistic kinetic theory.

  7. Opinion Expression as a Rational Behavior.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Sei-Hill

    This study looks at individuals' opinion expressions as a rational behavior based on a conscious calculus of expected benefits and costs (economic analysis). The influences of "issue benefit,""opinion congruence," and "issue knowledge," as sources of benefits and costs on opinion expression were hypothesized and tested. The study also examined the…

  8. 22 CFR 1429.10 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 2 2013-04-01 2009-04-01 true Advisory opinions. 1429.10 Section 1429.10... AND GENERAL REQUIREMENTS Miscellaneous § 1429.10 Advisory opinions. The Board and the General Counsel will not issue advisory opinions....

  9. 22 CFR 1429.10 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true Advisory opinions. 1429.10 Section 1429.10... AND GENERAL REQUIREMENTS Miscellaneous § 1429.10 Advisory opinions. The Board and the General Counsel will not issue advisory opinions....

  10. 5 CFR 2429.10 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Advisory opinions. 2429.10 Section 2429.10 Administrative Personnel FEDERAL LABOR RELATIONS AUTHORITY, GENERAL COUNSEL OF THE FEDERAL LABOR....10 Advisory opinions. The Authority and the General Counsel will not issue advisory opinions....

  11. 21 CFR 10.85 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 10.85 Section 10.85 Food and... PRACTICES AND PROCEDURES General Administrative Procedures § 10.85 Advisory opinions. (a) An interested person may request an advisory opinion from the Commissioner on a matter of general applicability....

  12. 21 CFR 808.5 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 808.5 Section 808.5 Food and... Advisory opinions. (a) Any State, political subdivision, or other interested person may request an advisory opinion from the Commissioner with respect to any general matter concerning preemption of State or...

  13. 21 CFR 12.83 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 12.83 Section 12.83 Food and... PUBLIC HEARING Hearing Procedures § 12.83 Advisory opinions. Before or during a hearing, a person may, under § 10.85, request the Commissioner for an advisory opinion on whether any regulation or order...

  14. 22 CFR 1429.10 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 2 2012-04-01 2009-04-01 true Advisory opinions. 1429.10 Section 1429.10... AND GENERAL REQUIREMENTS Miscellaneous § 1429.10 Advisory opinions. The Board and the General Counsel will not issue advisory opinions....

  15. 5 CFR 2429.10 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Advisory opinions. 2429.10 Section 2429.10 Administrative Personnel FEDERAL LABOR RELATIONS AUTHORITY, GENERAL COUNSEL OF THE FEDERAL LABOR....10 Advisory opinions. The Authority and the General Counsel will not issue advisory opinions....

  16. 13 CFR 134.303 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Advisory opinions. 134.303 Section... and NAICS Code Designations § 134.303 Advisory opinions. The Office of Hearings and Appeals does not issue advisory opinions....

  17. 13 CFR 134.303 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Advisory opinions. 134.303 Section... and NAICS Code Designations § 134.303 Advisory opinions. The Office of Hearings and Appeals does not issue advisory opinions....

  18. 21 CFR 808.5 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 808.5 Section 808.5 Food and... Advisory opinions. (a) Any State, political subdivision, or other interested person may request an advisory opinion from the Commissioner with respect to any general matter concerning preemption of State or...

  19. 13 CFR 134.303 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Advisory opinions. 134.303 Section... and NAICS Code Designations § 134.303 Advisory opinions. The Office of Hearings and Appeals does not issue advisory opinions....

  20. 21 CFR 808.5 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 808.5 Section 808.5 Food and... Advisory opinions. (a) Any State, political subdivision, or other interested person may request an advisory opinion from the Commissioner with respect to any general matter concerning preemption of State or...

  1. 5 CFR 2429.10 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Advisory opinions. 2429.10 Section 2429.10 Administrative Personnel FEDERAL LABOR RELATIONS AUTHORITY, GENERAL COUNSEL OF THE FEDERAL LABOR....10 Advisory opinions. The Authority and the General Counsel will not issue advisory opinions....

  2. 21 CFR 10.85 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 10.85 Section 10.85 Food and... PRACTICES AND PROCEDURES General Administrative Procedures § 10.85 Advisory opinions. (a) An interested person may request an advisory opinion from the Commissioner on a matter of general applicability....

  3. 5 CFR 2429.10 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Advisory opinions. 2429.10 Section 2429.10 Administrative Personnel FEDERAL LABOR RELATIONS AUTHORITY, GENERAL COUNSEL OF THE FEDERAL LABOR....10 Advisory opinions. The Authority and the General Counsel will not issue advisory opinions....

  4. 13 CFR 134.303 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Advisory opinions. 134.303 Section... and NAICS Code Designations § 134.303 Advisory opinions. The Office of Hearings and Appeals does not issue advisory opinions....

  5. 21 CFR 10.85 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 10.85 Section 10.85 Food and... PRACTICES AND PROCEDURES General Administrative Procedures § 10.85 Advisory opinions. (a) An interested person may request an advisory opinion from the Commissioner on a matter of general applicability....

  6. 21 CFR 10.85 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 10.85 Section 10.85 Food and... PRACTICES AND PROCEDURES General Administrative Procedures § 10.85 Advisory opinions. (a) An interested person may request an advisory opinion from the Commissioner on a matter of general applicability....

  7. 21 CFR 12.83 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 12.83 Section 12.83 Food and... PUBLIC HEARING Hearing Procedures § 12.83 Advisory opinions. Before or during a hearing, a person may, under § 10.85, request the Commissioner for an advisory opinion on whether any regulation or order...

  8. 21 CFR 12.83 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 12.83 Section 12.83 Food and... PUBLIC HEARING Hearing Procedures § 12.83 Advisory opinions. Before or during a hearing, a person may, under § 10.85, request the Commissioner for an advisory opinion on whether any regulation or order...

  9. 21 CFR 12.83 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 12.83 Section 12.83 Food and... PUBLIC HEARING Hearing Procedures § 12.83 Advisory opinions. Before or during a hearing, a person may, under § 10.85, request the Commissioner for an advisory opinion on whether any regulation or order...

  10. 22 CFR 1429.10 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 2 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 1429.10 Section 1429.10... AND GENERAL REQUIREMENTS Miscellaneous § 1429.10 Advisory opinions. The Board and the General Counsel will not issue advisory opinions....

  11. 5 CFR 2429.10 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Advisory opinions. 2429.10 Section 2429.10 Administrative Personnel FEDERAL LABOR RELATIONS AUTHORITY, GENERAL COUNSEL OF THE FEDERAL LABOR....10 Advisory opinions. The Authority and the General Counsel will not issue advisory opinions....

  12. 21 CFR 12.83 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 12.83 Section 12.83 Food and... PUBLIC HEARING Hearing Procedures § 12.83 Advisory opinions. Before or during a hearing, a person may, under § 10.85, request the Commissioner for an advisory opinion on whether any regulation or order...

  13. 21 CFR 808.5 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 808.5 Section 808.5 Food and... Advisory opinions. (a) Any State, political subdivision, or other interested person may request an advisory opinion from the Commissioner with respect to any general matter concerning preemption of State or...

  14. 21 CFR 808.5 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 808.5 Section 808.5 Food and... Advisory opinions. (a) Any State, political subdivision, or other interested person may request an advisory opinion from the Commissioner with respect to any general matter concerning preemption of State or...

  15. 13 CFR 134.303 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Advisory opinions. 134.303 Section... and NAICS Code Designations § 134.303 Advisory opinions. The Office of Hearings and Appeals does not issue advisory opinions....

  16. 21 CFR 10.85 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 10.85 Section 10.85 Food and... PRACTICES AND PROCEDURES General Administrative Procedures § 10.85 Advisory opinions. (a) An interested person may request an advisory opinion from the Commissioner on a matter of general applicability....

  17. 22 CFR 1429.10 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 2 2011-04-01 2009-04-01 true Advisory opinions. 1429.10 Section 1429.10... AND GENERAL REQUIREMENTS Miscellaneous § 1429.10 Advisory opinions. The Board and the General Counsel will not issue advisory opinions....

  18. Opinions, conflicts, and consensus: modeling social dynamics in a collaborative environment.

    PubMed

    Török, János; Iñiguez, Gerardo; Yasseri, Taha; San Miguel, Maxi; Kaski, Kimmo; Kertész, János

    2013-02-22

    Information-communication technology promotes collaborative environments like Wikipedia where, however, controversy and conflicts can appear. To describe the rise, persistence, and resolution of such conflicts, we devise an extended opinion dynamics model where agents with different opinions perform a single task to make a consensual product. As a function of the convergence parameter describing the influence of the product on the agents, the model shows spontaneous symmetry breaking of the final consensus opinion represented by the medium. In the case when agents are replaced with new ones at a certain rate, a transition from mainly consensus to a perpetual conflict occurs, which is in qualitative agreement with the scenarios observed in Wikipedia. PMID:23473207

  19. [Expert advice in liability cases].

    PubMed

    Brands, W G

    2009-05-01

    Concerning cases of liability, dentists in the future will probably have to call on expert help or act as experts on behalf of a colleague with increasing frequency. Dentists who consider acting as experts in liability cases will have to develop their expertise especially in civil law and disciplinary law. Matters which in this respect should receive special attention are: the expert must act in conformity with the law on Medical Treatment Agreement; the expert's report must make clear what the legal basis is of the report's conclusions; the legal basis must be substantially supported by the facts, conditions and findings that are mentioned in the report; the expert must act independently and refrain from subjective judgments, assumptions and unprofessional and prejudicial qualifications. PMID:19507415

  20. Spacecraft environmental anomalies expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koons, H. C.; Gorney, D. J.

    1988-01-01

    A microcomputer-based expert system is being developed at the Aerospace Corporation Space Sciences Laboratory to assist in the diagnosis of satellite anomalies caused by the space environment. The expert system is designed to address anomalies caused by surface charging, bulk charging, single event effects and total radiation dose. These effects depend on the orbit of the satellite, the local environment (which is highly variable), the satellite exposure time and the hardness of the circuits and components of the satellite. The expert system is a rule-based system that uses the Texas Instruments Personal Consultant Plus expert system shell. The completed expert system knowledge base will include 150 to 200 rules, as well as a spacecraft attributes database, an historical spacecraft anomalies database, and a space environment database which is updated in near real-time. Currently, the expert system is undergoing development and testing within the Aerospace Corporation Space Sciences Laboratory.

  1. A maximum entropy model for opinions in social groups

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Sergio; Navarrete, Yasmín; Gutiérrez, Gonzalo

    2014-04-01

    We study how the opinions of a group of individuals determine their spatial distribution and connectivity, through an agent-based model. The interaction between agents is described by a Hamiltonian in which agents are allowed to move freely without an underlying lattice (the average network topology connecting them is determined from the parameters). This kind of model was derived using maximum entropy statistical inference under fixed expectation values of certain probabilities that (we propose) are relevant to social organization. Control parameters emerge as Lagrange multipliers of the maximum entropy problem, and they can be associated with the level of consequence between the personal beliefs and external opinions, and the tendency to socialize with peers of similar or opposing views. These parameters define a phase diagram for the social system, which we studied using Monte Carlo Metropolis simulations. Our model presents both first and second-order phase transitions, depending on the ratio between the internal consequence and the interaction with others. We have found a critical value for the level of internal consequence, below which the personal beliefs of the agents seem to be irrelevant.

  2. Characteristics of successful opinion leaders in a bounded confidence model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Shuwei; Glass, David H.; McCartney, Mark

    2016-05-01

    This paper analyses the impact of competing opinion leaders on attracting followers in a social group based on a bounded confidence model in terms of four characteristics: reputation, stubbornness, appeal and extremeness. In the model, reputation differs among leaders and normal agents based on the weights assigned to them, stubbornness of leaders is reflected by their confidence towards normal agents, appeal of the leaders is represented by the confidence of followers towards them, and extremeness is captured by the opinion values of leaders. Simulations show that increasing reputation, stubbornness or extremeness makes it more difficult for the group to achieve consensus, but increasing the appeal will make it easier. The results demonstrate that successful opinion leaders should generally be less stubborn, have greater appeal and be less extreme in order to attract more followers in a competing environment. Furthermore, the number of followers can be very sensitive to small changes in these characteristics. On the other hand, reputation has a more complicated impact: higher reputation helps the leader to attract more followers when the group bound of confidence is high, but can hinder the leader from attracting followers when the group bound of confidence is low.

  3. Nonlinear Opinion Dynamics on Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gabbay, Michael; Das, Arindam

    2013-03-01

    A model which treats group decision making as nonlinear opinion dynamics occurring over a network is presented. The model makes predictions regarding the interaction of network structure and initial disagreement level upon decision outcomes and consensus formation. The model displays bifurcations at high disagreement levels which lead to behaviors that are qualitatively distinct from those at low disagreement. For example, at high disagreement, the model exhibits asymmetric, majority rule outcomes that arise even when the system is symmetric with respect to the distribution of initial opinions and network structure. Analytical approximations for the bifurcation boundaries agree well with numerically-determined boundaries. An ongoing experimental effort involving the use of online discussion groups to test the model predictions is briefly described. We acknowledge the support of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency and the Office of Naval Research under grant HDTRA1-10-1-0075

  4. ESG - EXPERT SCRIPT GENERATOR

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooper, E. G.

    1994-01-01

    The Automation Technology Branch of NASA's Langley Research Center is employing increasingly complex degrees of operator/robot cooperation (telerobotics). A good relationship between the operator and computer is essential for smooth performance by a telerobotic system. ESG (Expert Script Generator) is a software package that automatically generates high-level task objective commands from the NASA Intelligent Systems Research Lab's (ISRL's) complex menu-driven language. ESG reduces errors and makes the telerobotics lab accessible to researchers who are not familiar with the comprehensive language developed by ISRL for interacting with the various systems of the ISRL testbed. ESG incorporates expert system technology to capture the typical rules of operation that a skilled operator would use. The result is an operator interface which optimizes the system's capability to perform a task remotely in a hazardous environment, in a timely manner, and without undue stress to the operator, while minimizing the chance for operator errors that may damage equipment. The intricate menu-driven command interface which provides for various control modes of both manipulators and their associated sensors in the TeleRobotic System Simulation (TRSS) has a syntax which is both irregular and verbose. ESG eliminates the following two problems with this command "language": 1) knowing the correct command sequence to accomplish a task, and 2) inputting a known command sequence without typos and other errors. ESG serves as an additional layer of interface, working in conjunction with the menu command processor, not supplanting it. By specifying task-level commands, such as GRASP, CONNECT, etc., ESG will generate the appropriate menu elements to accomplish the task. These elements will be collected in a script file which can then be executed by the ISRL menu command processor. In addition, the operator can extend the list of task-level commands to include customized tasks composed of sub

  5. Epistemological Beliefs across Faculty Experts and Student Non-Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barnard-Brak, Lucy; Lan, William

    2009-01-01

    The epistemological beliefs of non-experts or novices have been studied with some frequency, while the beliefs of experts as a comparison group have received little attention in research literature. The purpose of the current study was to examine whether the conceptual framework of epistemological beliefs may be considered statistically similar or…

  6. System Experts and Decision Making Experts in Transdisciplinary Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mieg, Harald A.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…

  7. Range of interaction in an opinion evolution model of ideological self-positioning: Contagion, hesitance and polarization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gimenez, M. Cecilia; Paz García, Ana Pamela; Burgos Paci, Maxi A.; Reinaudi, Luis

    2016-04-01

    The evolution of public opinion using tools and concepts borrowed from Statistical Physics is an emerging area within the field of Sociophysics. In the present paper, a Statistical Physics model was developed to study the evolution of the ideological self-positioning of an ensemble of agents. The model consists of an array of L components, each one of which represents the ideology of an agent. The proposed mechanism is based on the "voter model", in which one agent can adopt the opinion of another one if the difference of their opinions lies within a certain range. The existence of "undecided" agents (i.e. agents with no definite opinion) was implemented in the model. The possibility of radicalization of an agent's opinion upon interaction with another one was also implemented. The results of our simulations are compared to statistical data taken from the Latinobarómetro databank for the cases of Argentina, Chile, Brazil and Uruguay in the last decade. Among other results, the effect of taking into account the undecided agents is the formation of a single peak at the middle of the ideological spectrum (which corresponds to a centrist ideological position), in agreement with the real cases studied.

  8. Expert Antiskid System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsumoto, N.; Kuraoka, H.; Ohka, N.; Ohba, M.; Tabe, T.

    1987-10-01

    In this paper we discuss how to generate the command value for the optimal regulator in an automotive antiskid system. First, the behavior of the vehicle at braking is expressed as a mathematical model with the formulation by physical consideration and identification of the hydraulic system by statistical methods. An optimal regulator with additional integral is applied to the automotive antiskid control in order to make the each wheel speed follow any command value. However, the desired command value to stop the vehicle efficiently and stably is dependent on ambiguous road surface conditions. Thus, how to determine the desired command value under the moment-to-moment conditions is most important. A method for inferring the conditions is developed using fuzzy logic, with three fuzzy variables expressing the conditions adequately. On the basis of the inference, the ideal command values are generated. Outstanding control performance and good adaptability are obtained in vehicle experiments. Consequently, the Expert Antiskid System, employing modern control theory and fuzzy logic, can stop a vehicle efficiently and stably under any condition.

  9. 42 CFR 1008.59 - Range of the advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Range of the advisory opinion. 1008.59 Section 1008... AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Scope and Effect of OIG Advisory Opinions § 1008.59 Range of the advisory opinion. (a) An advisory opinion will state only the OIG's opinion regarding the subject matter...

  10. 42 CFR 1008.59 - Range of the advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Range of the advisory opinion. 1008.59 Section 1008... AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Scope and Effect of OIG Advisory Opinions § 1008.59 Range of the advisory opinion. (a) An advisory opinion will state only the OIG's opinion regarding the subject matter...

  11. 42 CFR 1008.59 - Range of the advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Range of the advisory opinion. 1008.59 Section 1008... AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Scope and Effect of OIG Advisory Opinions § 1008.59 Range of the advisory opinion. (a) An advisory opinion will state only the OIG's opinion regarding the subject matter...

  12. 42 CFR 1008.59 - Range of the advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Range of the advisory opinion. 1008.59 Section 1008... AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Scope and Effect of OIG Advisory Opinions § 1008.59 Range of the advisory opinion. (a) An advisory opinion will state only the OIG's opinion regarding the subject matter...

  13. 42 CFR 1008.59 - Range of the advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Range of the advisory opinion. 1008.59 Section 1008... AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Scope and Effect of OIG Advisory Opinions § 1008.59 Range of the advisory opinion. (a) An advisory opinion will state only the OIG's opinion regarding the subject matter...

  14. Expert Systems and Document Handling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edmonds, Ernest

    1987-01-01

    Describes significant attributes of expert systems, contrasts them to conventional computer systems, and provides an overview of the R1 expert system used by Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) to put together operational systems that meet customers' requirements. Document handling, particularly pictures and images in documents, is also briefly…

  15. Expert Systems in Reference Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roysdon, Christine, Ed.; White, Howard D., Ed.

    1989-01-01

    Eleven articles introduce expert systems applications in library and information science, and present design and implementation issues of system development for reference services. Topics covered include knowledge based systems, prototype development, the use of artificial intelligence to remedy current system inadequacies, and an expert system to…

  16. Expert Systems and Special Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hofmeister, Alan M.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

    The application of artificial intelligence to the problems of education is examined. One of the most promising areas in artificial intelligence is expert systems technology which engages the user in a problem-solving diaglogue. Some of the characteristics that make expert systems "intelligent" are identified and exemplified. The rise of expert…

  17. Energy Policy: Ask the Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nuclear Industry, 1991

    1991-01-01

    Twelve U.S. experts on energy policies individually offer perspectives about which priorities should be enlisted with respect to the current energy policy of the United States. In their analyses, these experts unanimously agree that the biggest U.S. problem is an increasing dependence upon imported oil. (JJK)

  18. Communicator Credibility: Trustworthiness Defeats Expertness.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lui, Louisa; Standing, Lionel

    1989-01-01

    Compared credibility of highly trustworthy communicator with that of an expert by using nuns (N=36) who listened to the same persuasive message about Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome presented as either a trustworthy source (priest), an expert (doctor), or a neutral source. Found trustworthy communicator was regarded as significantly more…

  19. Expert Systems and Medical Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Educational Researcher, 1988

    1988-01-01

    Expert systems are computerized databases that can diagnose and recommend treatment for persons who are ill. The database contains information on more than 7,600 diseases generated from exhaustive questioning of experts. These systems supplement human expertise but do not replace the good teaching of physicians. (VM)

  20. Expertise in Teaching: Expert Pedagogues.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lavely, Carolyn; And Others

    "The purpose of this article is to report a review of the developing empirical literature to explain "expert" teacher behavior, by analogy, from the cognitive psychology expertise literature. Emphasized is a review of the expert-novice cognitive psychology literature, encompassing the research on: chess, and other games; physics, medicine, and…

  1. What defines an Expert? - Uncertainty in the interpretation of seismic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bond, C. E.

    2008-12-01

    Studies focusing on the elicitation of information from experts are concentrated primarily in economics and world markets, medical practice and expert witness testimonies. Expert elicitation theory has been applied in the natural sciences, most notably in the prediction of fluid flow in hydrological studies. In the geological sciences expert elicitation has been limited to theoretical analysis with studies focusing on the elicitation element, gaining expert opinion rather than necessarily understanding the basis behind the expert view. In these cases experts are defined in a traditional sense, based for example on: standing in the field, no. of years of experience, no. of peer reviewed publications, the experts position in a company hierarchy or academia. Here traditional indicators of expertise have been compared for significance on affective seismic interpretation. Polytomous regression analysis has been used to assess the relative significance of length and type of experience on the outcome of a seismic interpretation exercise. Following the initial analysis the techniques used by participants to interpret the seismic image were added as additional variables to the analysis. Specific technical skills and techniques were found to be more important for the affective geological interpretation of seismic data than the traditional indicators of expertise. The results of a seismic interpretation exercise, the techniques used to interpret the seismic and the participant's prior experience have been combined and analysed to answer the question - who is and what defines an expert?

  2. Agent Orange

    MedlinePlus

    ... Index Agent Orange Agent Orange Home Facts about Herbicides Veterans' Diseases Birth Defects Benefits Exposure Locations Provider ... millions of gallons of Agent Orange and other herbicides on trees and vegetation during the Vietnam War. ...

  3. Threat expert system technology advisor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kurrasch, E. R.; Tripp, L. R.

    1987-01-01

    A prototype expert system was developed to determine the feasibility of using expert system technology to enhance the performance and survivability of helicopter pilots in a combat threat environment while flying NOE (Nap of the Earth) missions. The basis for the concept is the potential of using an Expert System Advisor to reduce the extreme overloading of the pilot who flies NOE mission below treetop level at approximately 40 knots while performing several other functions. The ultimate goal is to develop a Threat Expert System Advisor which provides threat information and advice that are better than even a highly experienced copilot. The results clearly show that the NOE pilot needs all the help in decision aiding and threat situation awareness that he can get. It clearly shows that heuristics are important and that an expert system for combat NOE helicopter missions can be of great help to the pilot in complex threat situations and in making decisions.

  4. Engineering monitoring expert system's developer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lo, Ching F.

    1991-01-01

    This research project is designed to apply artificial intelligence technology including expert systems, dynamic interface of neural networks, and hypertext to construct an expert system developer. The developer environment is specifically suited to building expert systems which monitor the performance of ground support equipment for propulsion systems and testing facilities. The expert system developer, through the use of a graphics interface and a rule network, will be transparent to the user during rule constructing and data scanning of the knowledge base. The project will result in a software system that allows its user to build specific monitoring type expert systems which monitor various equipments used for propulsion systems or ground testing facilities and accrues system performance information in a dynamic knowledge base.

  5. Cognitive resources of physics experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Darrick C.

    One important goal of physics education is to help students develop reasoning patterns similar to those of expert physicists. To achieve this goal, physics educators must know what makes physics experts so successful at solving challenging physics problems. However, this dimension of physics expertise has not been fully explored by the physics education research (PER) community. In this dissertation, I describe several studies I have conducted that further the PER community's understanding of physics expertise. In these studies, I investigate how expert physicists reason as they solve unfamiliar, challenging physics problems by using a resource-based model of cognition to analyze videotaped recordings of problem solving sessions. By developing a way to determine when experts are making conceptual breakthroughs I analyze what resources experts use during conceptual breakthroughs. In the first study, I show that physics conceptual breakthroughs are characterized by reasoning which combines resources related to intuitive knowledge, higher level physics based conceptual knowledge, and epistemological knowledge. In the second study, I develop a way to reliably code for epistemological resources and determine what epistemological resources experts rely on most during conceptual breakthroughs. My findings show that experts rely on contrasting cases more often than any other epistemological resource. In the third study, I use variation theory to investigate how experts use contrasting cases. I look for patterns across all instances when experts use contrasting cases to make a conceptual breakthrough and show how scientific epistemology can be used to better understand experts' use of contrasting cases. I discuss how the findings of each study can be used to inform physics education.

  6. Evaluation of 12 strategies for obtaining second opinions to improve interpretation of breast histopathology: simulation study

    PubMed Central

    Tosteson, Anna NA; Pepe, Margaret S; Longton, Gary M; Nelson, Heidi D; Geller, Berta; Carney, Patricia A; Onega, Tracy; Allison, Kimberly H; Jackson, Sara L; Weaver, Donald L

    2016-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the potential effect of second opinions on improving the accuracy of diagnostic interpretation of breast histopathology. Design Simulation study. Setting 12 different strategies for acquiring independent second opinions. Participants Interpretations of 240 breast biopsy specimens by 115 pathologists, one slide for each case, compared with reference diagnoses derived by expert consensus. Main outcome measures Misclassification rates for individual pathologists and for 12 simulated strategies for second opinions. Simulations compared accuracy of diagnoses from single pathologists with that of diagnoses based on pairing interpretations from first and second independent pathologists, where resolution of disagreements was by an independent third pathologist. 12 strategies were evaluated in which acquisition of second opinions depended on initial diagnoses, assessment of case difficulty or borderline characteristics, pathologists’ clinical volumes, or whether a second opinion was required by policy or desired by the pathologists. The 240 cases included benign without atypia (10% non-proliferative, 20% proliferative without atypia), atypia (30%), ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS, 30%), and invasive cancer (10%). Overall misclassification rates and agreement statistics depended on the composition of the test set, which included a higher prevalence of difficult cases than in typical practice. Results Misclassification rates significantly decreased (P<0.001) with all second opinion strategies except for the strategy limiting second opinions only to cases of invasive cancer. The overall misclassification rate decreased from 24.7% to 18.1% when all cases received second opinions (P<0.001). Obtaining both first and second opinions from pathologists with a high volume (≥10 breast biopsy specimens weekly) resulted in the lowest misclassification rate in this test set (14.3%, 95% confidence interval 10.9% to 18.0%). Obtaining second opinions only for

  7. [Opinion of the citizens, opinion of the officials].

    PubMed

    1997-09-01

    No government can survive without consulting the opinion of the governed. Even dictators cannot be completely ignorant of the needs and sentiments of the population. This truth applies as well in intimate aspects of life related to conscience and morality. Mexican federal and local legislators lack means of consulting the citizenry. Only a few localities have the type of procedures to determine the will of the electorate used in nations of long democratic tradition. Abortion and other matters of conscience should be subjected to referendum. At present, referenda are impracticable in Mexico. Reflecting the situation in secular society, the Catholic Church hierarchy lacks means of consulting that would at least temper the authoritarian condemnation by the Pope of contraception and birth control and the obsessive opposition to condoms, the best HIV preventive. It is difficult to gauge the true weight of the pope¿s influence in Mexico, but many lawmakers and authorities consider it definitive. The Church hierarchy neither consults the faithful nor listens to those within the Church who recommend modification of doctrines regarding reproduction. Surveys reveal that Catholic men and women use contraception, and women have obtained abortions without considering themselves outside the religious community. Legislators and officials should know what people really think, and citizens should be provided with information to enable them to form their own opinions. PMID:12349538

  8. Co-Evolution of Opinion and Strategy in Persuasion Dynamics:. AN Evolutionary Game Theoretical Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, Fei; Liu, Yun; Li, Yong

    In this paper, a new model of opinion formation within the framework of evolutionary game theory is presented. The model simulates strategic situations when people are in opinion discussion. Heterogeneous agents adjust their behaviors to the environment during discussions, and their interacting strategies evolve together with opinions. In the proposed game, we take into account payoff discount to join a discussion, and the situation that people might drop out of an unpromising game. Analytical and emulational results show that evolution of opinion and strategy always tend to converge, with utility threshold, memory length, and decision uncertainty parameters influencing the convergence time. The model displays different dynamical regimes when we set differently the rule when people are at a loss in strategy.

  9. Noise-induced absorbing phase transition in a model of opinion formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vieira, Allan R.; Crokidakis, Nuno

    2016-08-01

    In this work we study a 3-state (+1, -1, 0) opinion model in the presence of noise and disorder. We consider pairwise competitive interactions, with a fraction p of those interactions being negative (disorder). Moreover, there is a noise q that represents the probability of an individual spontaneously change his opinion to the neutral state. Our aim is to study how the increase/decrease of the fraction of neutral agents affects the critical behavior of the system and the evolution of opinions. We derive analytical expressions for the order parameter of the model, as well as for the stationary fraction of each opinion, and we show that there are distinct phase transitions. One is the usual ferro-paramagnetic transition, that is in the Ising universality class. In addition, there are para-absorbing and ferro-absorbing transitions, presenting the directed percolation universality class. Our results are complemented by numerical simulations.

  10. [Veterinarians as experts in court].

    PubMed

    Ort, J D

    2004-03-01

    General veterinarians such as veterinary officers act as experts at court. They are in so far part of the evidence. Due to his experience the veterinary expert shall give systematical uniform principles concerning even domains adjacent to the field of animal protection such as protection of animal epidemics and food cases, verifiable by science and university research. Examples for expert's topics as well as the requirements of expert reports are shown. According to paragraph 15 II Tierschutzgesetz (Animal Protection Act), as well as according to paragraph paragraph 63, 76 Ordnungswidrigkeitengesetz the experts participation in the proceeding is necessary. In consideration of paragraph paragraph 74, 22 Strafprozessordnung (Code of Criminal Proceedure) conflicts may arise because the veterinarian officer is self-contained investigator, witness as well as expert in the same proceeding. In general the veterinarian officer, who has been involved in the investigations must be excluded from expert activity in the same case. The veterinarian officers have to solve this problem by seperating tasks and functions within one legal case. PMID:15195954

  11. Decidedly different: Expert and public views of risks from a radioactive waste repository

    SciTech Connect

    Flynn, J.; Slovic, P.; Mertz, C.K. )

    1993-12-01

    A questionnaire with items that had been used in a national survey of the general public was administered to persons attending an American Nuclear Society meeting. The items asked about risks associated with high-level nuclear waste (HLNW), trust in nuclear-waste program managers, costs and benefits of a repository project, and images of a HLNW repository. The results suggest that nuclear industry experts may have very different opinions from the general public about most of these items and their images of a repository indicate a vastly different conceptual framework within which their opinions are formed. 8 refs., 4 tabs.

  12. Expert systems for personnel assignment

    SciTech Connect

    Hardee, J.L.; Liepins, G.

    1986-01-01

    In order to reduce stress on assignment personnel (detailers) and ensure maximum fairness and consistency in the Navy's personnel assignment process, The Navy Military Personnel Command (NMPC) has begun to explore the potential use of expert systems to supplement current manual and computerized distribution methods. The Detailer's Assistant expert system is being developed to improve the detailers' ability to satisfy the needs of their constituents and Navy management. An initial prototype of the Detailer's Assistant is now being evaluated. Numerous upgrades and extensions should lead to an operational system in the near future. Further development to a production system will involve additional research in machine learning, intelligent database methods, and cooperating expert systems.

  13. Signal Processing Expert Code (SPEC)

    SciTech Connect

    Ames, H.S.

    1985-12-01

    The purpose of this paper is to describe a prototype expert system called SPEC which was developed to demonstrate the utility of providing an intelligent interface for users of SIG, a general purpose signal processing code. The expert system is written in NIL, runs on a VAX 11/750 and consists of a backward chaining inference engine and an English-like parser. The inference engine uses knowledge encoded as rules about the formats of SIG commands and about how to perform frequency analyses using SIG. The system demonstrated that expert system can be used to control existing codes.

  14. Agent amplified communication

    SciTech Connect

    Kautz, H.; Selman, B.; Milewski, A.

    1996-12-31

    We propose an agent-based framework for assisting and simplifying person-to-person communication for information gathering tasks. As an example, we focus on locating experts for any specified topic. In our approach, the informal person-to-person networks that exist within an organization are used to {open_quotes}referral chain{close_quotes} requests for expertise. User-agents help automate this process. The agents generate referrals by analyzing records of e-mail communication patterns. Simulation results show that the higher responsiveness of an agent-based system can be effectively traded for the higher accuracy of a completely manual approach. Furthermore, preliminary experience with a group of users on a prototype system has shown that useful automatic referrals can be found in practice. Our experience with actual users has also shown that privacy concerns are central to the successful deployment of personal agents: an advanced agent-based system will therefore need to reason about issues involving trust and authority.

  15. Expert Witness: A system for developing expert medical testimony

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lewandowski, Raymond; Perkins, David; Leasure, David

    1994-01-01

    Expert Witness in an expert system designed to assist attorneys and medical experts in determining the merit of medical malpractice claims in the area of obstetrics. It substitutes the time of the medical expert with the time of a paralegal assistant guided by the expert system during the initial investigation of the medical records and patient interviews. The product of the system is a narrative transcript containing important data, immediate conclusions from the data, and overall conclusions of the case that the attorney and medical expert use to make decisions about whether and how to proceed with the case. The transcript may also contain directives for gathering additional information needed for the case. The system is a modified heuristic classifier and is implemented using over 600 CLIPS rules together with a C-based user interface. The data abstraction and solution refinement are implemented directly using forward chaining production and matching. The use of CLIPS and C is essential to delivering a system that runs on a generic PC platform. The direct implementation in CLIPS together with locality of inference ensures that the system will scale gracefully. Two years of use has revealed no errors in the reasoning.

  16. Interplay between social debate and propaganda in an opinion formation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gimenez, M. C.; Revelli, J. A.; Lama, M. S. de la; Lopez, J. M.; Wio, H. S.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a simple model of opinion dynamics in which a two-state agent modified Sznajd model evolves due to the simultaneous action of stochastic driving and a periodic signal. The stochastic effect mimics a social temperature, so the agents may adopt decisions in support for or against some opinion or position, according to a modified Sznajd rule with a varying probability. The external force represents a simplified picture by which society feels the influence of the external effects of propaganda. By means of Monte Carlo simulations we have shown the dynamical interplay between the social condition or mood and the external influence, finding a stochastic resonance-like phenomenon when we depict the noise-to-signal ratio as a function of the social temperature. In addition, we have also studied the effects of the system size and the external signal strength on the opinion formation dynamics.

  17. The nutrition advisor expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huse, Scott M.; Shyne, Scott S.

    1991-01-01

    The Nutrition Advisor Expert System (NAES) is an expert system written in the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS). NAES provides expert knowledge and guidance into the complex world of nutrition management by capturing the knowledge of an expert and placing it at the user's fingertips. Specifically, NAES enables the user to: (1) obtain precise nutrition information for food items; (2) perform nutritional analysis of meal(s), flagging deficiencies based upon the U.S. Recommended Daily Allowances; (3) predict possible ailments based upon observed nutritional deficiency trends; (4) obtain a top ten listing of food items for a given nutrient; and (5) conveniently upgrade the data base. An explanation facility for the ailment prediction feature is also provided to document the reasoning process.

  18. Expert Systems in Clinical Microbiology

    PubMed Central

    Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

    2011-01-01

    Summary: This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the “big three”: Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically. PMID:21734247

  19. Expert systems in clinical microbiology.

    PubMed

    Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

    2011-07-01

    This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the "big three": Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically. PMID:21734247

  20. Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, M. Granger

    2014-01-01

    The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making. PMID:24821779

  1. Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Yvette B.; McCall, Kurt E.

    The Nickel Cadmium Battery Expert System-2, or 'NICBES-2', which was used by the NASA HST six-battery testbed, was subsequently converted into the Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System, or 'NICHES'. Accounts are presently given of this conversion process and future uses being contemplated for NICHES. NICHES will calculate orbital summary data at the end of each orbit, and store these files for trend analyses and rules-generation.

  2. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, Sonie; Yan, Jerry C.

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 1990s cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient implementation of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real-time demands are met for larger systems. Speedup via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial laboratories in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems is surveyed. The survey discusses multiprocessors for expert systems, parallel languages for symbolic computations, and mapping expert systems to multiprocessors. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. The main reasons are (1) the body of knowledge applicable in any given situation and the amount of computation executed by each rule firing are small, (2) dividing the problem solving process into relatively independent partitions is difficult, and (3) implementation decisions that enable expert systems to be incrementally refined hamper compile-time optimization. In order to obtain greater speedups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  3. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yan, Jerry C.; Lau, Sonie

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 90's cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient use of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real time demands are met for large expert systems. Speed-up via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial labs in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems was surveyed. The survey is divided into three major sections: (1) multiprocessors for parallel expert systems; (2) parallel languages for symbolic computations; and (3) measurements of parallelism of expert system. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. In order to obtain greater speed-ups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  4. Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Unal, Resit; Keating, Charles; Conway, Bruce; Chytka, Trina

    2004-01-01

    A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.

  5. The aggregation of expert judgment: do good things come to those who weight?

    PubMed

    Bolger, Fergus; Rowe, Gene

    2015-01-01

    Good policy making should be based on available scientific knowledge. Sometimes this knowledge is well established through research, but often scientists must simply express their judgment, and this is particularly so in risk scenarios that are characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Usually in such cases, the opinions of several experts will be sought in order to pool knowledge and reduce error, raising the question of whether individual expert judgments should be given different weights. We argue--against the commonly advocated "classical method"--that no significant benefits are likely to accrue from unequal weighting in mathematical aggregation. Our argument hinges on the difficulty of constructing reliable and valid measures of substantive expertise upon which to base weights. Practical problems associated with attempts to evaluate experts are also addressed. While our discussion focuses on one specific weighting scheme that is currently gaining in popularity for expert knowledge elicitation, our general thesis applies to externally imposed unequal weighting schemes more generally. PMID:25156754

  6. Grass carp in the Great Lakes region: establishment potential, expert perceptions, and re-evaluation of experimental evidence of ecological impact

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wittmann, Marion E.; Jerde, Christopher L.; Howeth, Jennifer G.; Maher, Sean P.; Deines, Andrew M.; Jenkins, Jill A.; Whitledge, Gregory W.; Burbank, Sarah B.; Chadderton, William L.; Mahon, Andrew R.; Tyson, Jeffrey T.; Gantz, Crysta A.; Keller, Reuben P.; Drake, John M.; Lodge, David M.

    2014-01-01

    Intentional introductions of nonindigenous fishes are increasing globally. While benefits of these introductions are easily quantified, assessments to understand the negative impacts to ecosystems are often difficult, incomplete, or absent. Grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) was originally introduced to the United States as a biocontrol agent, and recent observations of wild, diploid individuals in the Great Lakes basin have spurred interest in re-evaluating its ecological risk. Here, we evaluate the ecological impact of grass carp using expert opinion and a suite of the most up-to-date analytical tools and data (ploidy assessment, eDNA surveillance, species distribution models (SDMs), and meta-analysis). The perceived ecological impact of grass carp by fisheries experts was variable, ranging from unknown to very high. Wild-caught triploid and diploid individuals occurred in multiple Great Lakes waterways, and eDNA surveillance suggests that grass carp are abundant in a major tributary of Lake Michigan. SDMs predicted suitable grass carp climate occurs in all Great Lakes. Meta-analysis showed that grass carp introductions impact both water quality and biota. Novel findings based on updated ecological impact assessment tools indicate that iterative risk assessment of introduced fishes may be warranted.

  7. 32 CFR 1698.4 - Confidentiality of advisory opinions and requests for advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Confidentiality of advisory opinions and requests for advisory opinions. 1698.4 Section 1698.4 National Defense Other Regulations Relating to National Defense SELECTIVE SERVICE SYSTEM ADVISORY OPINIONS § 1698.4 Confidentiality of advisory...

  8. 32 CFR 1698.4 - Confidentiality of advisory opinions and requests for advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Confidentiality of advisory opinions and requests for advisory opinions. 1698.4 Section 1698.4 National Defense Other Regulations Relating to National Defense SELECTIVE SERVICE SYSTEM ADVISORY OPINIONS § 1698.4 Confidentiality of advisory...

  9. 20 CFR 258.7 - Board decisions and opinions and dissenting opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2014-04-01 2012-04-01 true Board decisions and opinions and dissenting opinions. 258.7 Section 258.7 Employees' Benefits RAILROAD RETIREMENT BOARD REGULATIONS UNDER THE RAILROAD RETIREMENT ACT HEARINGS BEFORE THE BOARD OR DESIGNATED EXAMINERS § 258.7 Board decisions and opinions...

  10. 20 CFR 258.7 - Board decisions and opinions and dissenting opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Board decisions and opinions and dissenting opinions. 258.7 Section 258.7 Employees' Benefits RAILROAD RETIREMENT BOARD REGULATIONS UNDER THE RAILROAD RETIREMENT ACT HEARINGS BEFORE THE BOARD OR DESIGNATED EXAMINERS § 258.7 Board decisions and opinions...

  11. 20 CFR 258.7 - Board decisions and opinions and dissenting opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2013-04-01 2012-04-01 true Board decisions and opinions and dissenting opinions. 258.7 Section 258.7 Employees' Benefits RAILROAD RETIREMENT BOARD REGULATIONS UNDER THE RAILROAD RETIREMENT ACT HEARINGS BEFORE THE BOARD OR DESIGNATED EXAMINERS § 258.7 Board decisions and opinions...

  12. 32 CFR 1698.4 - Confidentiality of advisory opinions and requests for advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Confidentiality of advisory opinions and requests for advisory opinions. 1698.4 Section 1698.4 National Defense Other Regulations Relating to National Defense SELECTIVE SERVICE SYSTEM ADVISORY OPINIONS § 1698.4 Confidentiality of advisory...

  13. 20 CFR 258.7 - Board decisions and opinions and dissenting opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Board decisions and opinions and dissenting opinions. 258.7 Section 258.7 Employees' Benefits RAILROAD RETIREMENT BOARD REGULATIONS UNDER THE RAILROAD RETIREMENT ACT HEARINGS BEFORE THE BOARD OR DESIGNATED EXAMINERS § 258.7 Board decisions and opinions...

  14. 32 CFR 1698.4 - Confidentiality of advisory opinions and requests for advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Confidentiality of advisory opinions and requests for advisory opinions. 1698.4 Section 1698.4 National Defense Other Regulations Relating to National Defense SELECTIVE SERVICE SYSTEM ADVISORY OPINIONS § 1698.4 Confidentiality of advisory...

  15. 20 CFR 258.7 - Board decisions and opinions and dissenting opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Board decisions and opinions and dissenting opinions. 258.7 Section 258.7 Employees' Benefits RAILROAD RETIREMENT BOARD REGULATIONS UNDER THE RAILROAD RETIREMENT ACT HEARINGS BEFORE THE BOARD OR DESIGNATED EXAMINERS § 258.7 Board decisions and opinions...

  16. 32 CFR 1698.4 - Confidentiality of advisory opinions and requests for advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Confidentiality of advisory opinions and requests for advisory opinions. 1698.4 Section 1698.4 National Defense Other Regulations Relating to National Defense SELECTIVE SERVICE SYSTEM ADVISORY OPINIONS § 1698.4 Confidentiality of advisory...

  17. Information Needs and Visitors' Experience of an Internet Expert Forum on Infertility

    PubMed Central

    Meyer, Juliane; Kochen, Michael M; Michelmann, Hans Wilhelm

    2005-01-01

    -third of visitors (n = 199) sent detailed results of diagnostic tests and asked for a first or second opinion. Requests to the expert forum were also sent in order to obtain emotional support (17%) or to complain about a doctor (15%). Conclusions Visitors who sent their laboratory findings to receive a thorough evaluation or a second opinion had a good command of the opportunities that an expert forum offers. One important expectation of the forum was emotional support, indicating psychological needs that were not met by medical providers. Future websites must find a compromise in order to protect experts from being overwhelmed by general, nonspecific requests while supporting patients with individualized answers. PMID:15998611

  18. Minority persistence in agent based model using information and emotional arousal as control variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    2013-07-01

    We present detailed analysis of the behavior of an agent based model of opinion formation, using a discrete variant of cusp catastrophe behavior of single agents. The agent opinion about a particular issue is determined by its information about the issue and its emotional arousal. It is possible that for agitated agents the same information would lead to different opinions. This results in a nontrivial individual opinion dynamics. The agents communicate via messages, which allows direct application of the model to ICT based communities. We study the dependence of the composition of an agent society on the range of interactions and the rate of emotional arousal. Despite the minimal number of adjustable parameters, the model reproduces several phenomena observed in real societies, for example nearly perfectly balanced results of some highly contested elections or the fact that minorities seldom perceive themselves to be a minority.

  19. Student Views Concerning Evidence and the Expert in Reasoning a Socio-Scientific Issue and Personal Epistemology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Fang-Ying

    2005-01-01

    This study investigated their views concerning evidence and expert opinion of 10th-grade students, accessed by an open-ended questionnaire in the context of a socio-scientific issue: the cause of flood disasters, and personal epistemology identified by the "Learning Environment Preference Questionnaire" (LEP). Students' responses to the open-ended…

  20. 32 CFR 1698.6 - Issuance of advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Issuance of advisory opinions. 1698.6 Section... ADVISORY OPINIONS § 1698.6 Issuance of advisory opinions. A copy of the advisory opinion will be furnished... opinion will be furnished, without charge, to any Federal, state, or municipal governmental agency...

  1. 42 CFR 1008.51 - Exclusivity of OIG advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Exclusivity of OIG advisory opinions. 1008.51... SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Scope and Effect of OIG Advisory Opinions § 1008.51 Exclusivity of OIG advisory opinions. The only method for obtaining a binding advisory opinion regarding...

  2. 28 CFR 80.13 - Scope of FCPA Opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Scope of FCPA Opinion. 80.13 Section 80.13 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) FOREIGN CORRUPT PRACTICES ACT OPINION PROCEDURE § 80.13 Scope of FCPA Opinion. An FCPA Opinion will state only the Attorney General's opinion...

  3. 32 CFR 1698.6 - Issuance of advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Issuance of advisory opinions. 1698.6 Section... ADVISORY OPINIONS § 1698.6 Issuance of advisory opinions. A copy of the advisory opinion will be furnished... opinion will be furnished, without charge, to any Federal, state, or municipal governmental agency...

  4. 28 CFR 80.13 - Scope of FCPA Opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Scope of FCPA Opinion. 80.13 Section 80.13 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) FOREIGN CORRUPT PRACTICES ACT OPINION PROCEDURE § 80.13 Scope of FCPA Opinion. An FCPA Opinion will state only the Attorney General's opinion...

  5. 32 CFR 1698.6 - Issuance of advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Issuance of advisory opinions. 1698.6 Section... ADVISORY OPINIONS § 1698.6 Issuance of advisory opinions. A copy of the advisory opinion will be furnished... opinion will be furnished, without charge, to any Federal, state, or municipal governmental agency...

  6. 32 CFR 1698.6 - Issuance of advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Issuance of advisory opinions. 1698.6 Section... ADVISORY OPINIONS § 1698.6 Issuance of advisory opinions. A copy of the advisory opinion will be furnished... opinion will be furnished, without charge, to any Federal, state, or municipal governmental agency...

  7. 42 CFR 1008.51 - Exclusivity of OIG advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Exclusivity of OIG advisory opinions. 1008.51... SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Scope and Effect of OIG Advisory Opinions § 1008.51 Exclusivity of OIG advisory opinions. The only method for obtaining a binding advisory opinion regarding...

  8. 42 CFR 1008.51 - Exclusivity of OIG advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Exclusivity of OIG advisory opinions. 1008.51... SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Scope and Effect of OIG Advisory Opinions § 1008.51 Exclusivity of OIG advisory opinions. The only method for obtaining a binding advisory opinion regarding...

  9. 28 CFR 80.13 - Scope of FCPA Opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Scope of FCPA Opinion. 80.13 Section 80.13 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) FOREIGN CORRUPT PRACTICES ACT OPINION PROCEDURE § 80.13 Scope of FCPA Opinion. An FCPA Opinion will state only the Attorney General's opinion...

  10. 28 CFR 80.13 - Scope of FCPA Opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Scope of FCPA Opinion. 80.13 Section 80.13 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) FOREIGN CORRUPT PRACTICES ACT OPINION PROCEDURE § 80.13 Scope of FCPA Opinion. An FCPA Opinion will state only the Attorney General's opinion...

  11. 42 CFR 1008.51 - Exclusivity of OIG advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Exclusivity of OIG advisory opinions. 1008.51... SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Scope and Effect of OIG Advisory Opinions § 1008.51 Exclusivity of OIG advisory opinions. The only method for obtaining a binding advisory opinion regarding...

  12. 42 CFR 1008.51 - Exclusivity of OIG advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Exclusivity of OIG advisory opinions. 1008.51... SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Scope and Effect of OIG Advisory Opinions § 1008.51 Exclusivity of OIG advisory opinions. The only method for obtaining a binding advisory opinion regarding...

  13. 32 CFR 1698.6 - Issuance of advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Issuance of advisory opinions. 1698.6 Section... ADVISORY OPINIONS § 1698.6 Issuance of advisory opinions. A copy of the advisory opinion will be furnished... opinion will be furnished, without charge, to any Federal, state, or municipal governmental agency...

  14. 28 CFR 80.13 - Scope of FCPA Opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Scope of FCPA Opinion. 80.13 Section 80.13 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) FOREIGN CORRUPT PRACTICES ACT OPINION PROCEDURE § 80.13 Scope of FCPA Opinion. An FCPA Opinion will state only the Attorney General's opinion...

  15. The impact of new diagnostic technologies on health care. An aggregation of expert opinion.

    PubMed

    Schmid, G C; Poulin, M M; McNeal, B R

    1986-01-01

    The growing number of applications for both new and existing technologies will act as a catalyst for major changes in the diagnostic testing field over the next decade. The most important single factor affecting diagnostics, however, will be the increasing restrictions on reimbursement for diagnostic tests as traditional payers become much more cost conscious. After decades of growth, we should see a gradual decline in absolute numbers of diagnostic tests and procedures by the early 1990s. The locations of pathology testing may change as well. Free-standing labs will continue to grow in importance while the number of tests in hospitals will decline as hospital admission volumes fall. The number of tests in the home will grow dramatically but will remain a relatively small part of the whole. In diagnostic imaging, rapid growth will occur in the use of some of the newer specialized procedures, but the use of traditional x-rays is likely to fall off slightly. The share of procedures done in hospitals will drop, and the share done in diagnostic imaging centers will show a corresponding growth. These changes are likely to mean fewer radiologists and pathologists, tougher questions about administrative allocation of flat-rate reimbursements, a shift of focus in medical specialist education, and a shift in the role of medical specialty societies. PMID:10317697

  16. Expert Opinions on Postsecondary Outdoor Adventure Risk Management Curriculum Design: A Research Note

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harper, Nevin

    2007-01-01

    A study of outdoor adventure risk management education was conducted in the fall of 2003 following the devastating avalanche season of winter 2002-2003, which took close to 50 lives in North America. The study was guided by the desire to better understand effective risk management training of outdoor adventure leaders in postsecondary…

  17. [Forgetting hormonal contraceptive methods: expert opinion about their daily management in clinical routine practice].

    PubMed

    Jamin, C; André, G; Audebert, A; Christin-Maître, S; Elia, D; Harvey, T; Letombe, B; Lopes, P; Moreau, C; Nisand, I; Pélissier, C

    2011-11-01

    Many guidelines regarding the daily management of regular oral hormonal contraceptive methods have been proposed worldwide. Some of them may even appear to be conflicting. The search for the maximal contraceptive protection leads to a low acceptance of these guidelines, probably because of their complexity and their apparent discrepancy. We are deeply convinced that simplicity and pragmatism of guidelines should pave the way to both their better acceptance and compliance and, consequently, to their improved real-life effectiveness. We have considered physiology and pharmacodynamics before proposing the following rules for an effective management of hormonal contraceptive failures. We conclude that the risk of unwanted pregnancy is higher in case of a unique contraception misuse/a delayed start during the first week of the contraceptive cycle (or in case of multiple days of contraceptive misuses during the following weeks) for a combined contraception or at every cycle day for a non anti-ovulatory progestin only contraception. In such risky situations, we firmly recommend the restart of the regular contraceptive method and the use of condoms for the following 72 hours, provided no sexual intercourse has occurred during the past 5 days before the contraceptive failure. If sexual intercourse has occurred during the past 5 days before the contraceptive failure, we firmly recommend the intake of an emergency contraception, ulipristal acetate, the restart the regular contraceptive method and in this case, the use of condoms for, at least, the following 7 days. PMID:22000833

  18. Expert opinion: vaginal aplasia: creation of a neovagina following the Creatsas vaginoplasty.

    PubMed

    Creatsas, George; Deligeoroglou, Efthimios

    2007-04-01

    Vaginal aplasia is an uncommon congenital anomaly which is usually diagnosed as part of the Mayer-Rokitansky-Kuster-Hauser syndrome. The appropriate management of the anomaly includes the creation of a neovagina, and various surgical or non-surgical techniques have been described. Among them the Creatsas modification of Williams vaginoplasty is an operative technique which involves the following surgical steps: Under general anesthesia, and after cutting the hymen with the use of diathermy, a U-shaped incision is made in the vulva extending across the perineum and up to the medial side of the labia to the level of the external urethral meatus, being 4cm lateral to it. The tissues are mobilized and a first layer of interrupted sutures is put between the inner skin margins using absorbable material with the knots lying inside the creating neovagina. A second layer of the same material is used to approximate the subcutaneous fat and the perineal muscles and finally, the external skin is sutured with absorbable interrupted stitches. The Creatsas vaginoplasty is simple, safe and highly effective, as its application in a large number of patients has been followed by excellent results, with the creation of a satisfactory neovagina (length 10-12 cm, width 5 cm) in 98% of patients. PMID:17350745

  19. A Pragmatic Approach to Patch Testing Atopic Dermatitis Patients: Clinical Recommendations Based on Expert Consensus Opinion.

    PubMed

    Chen, Jennifer K; Jacob, Sharon E; Nedorost, Susan T; Hanifin, Jon M; Simpson, Eric L; Boguniewicz, Mark; Watsky, Kalman L; Lugo-Somolinos, Aida; Hamann, Carsten R; Eberting, Cheryl Lee; Silverberg, Jonathan I; Thyssen, Jacob P

    2016-01-01

    Allergic contact dermatitis (ACD) may complicate the clinical course of atopic dermatitis (AD), and patch testing remains the criterion standard for diagnosing ACD. To date, there have been no guidelines or consensus recommendations on when and how to patch test individuals with AD. Failure to patch test when appropriate may result in overlooking an important and potentially curable complicating comorbidity. In this article, we present consensus recommendations regarding when to perform patch testing in the AD patient, best practices, and common pitfalls. Patch testing should be considered in AD patients with dermatitis that fails to improve with topical therapy; with atypical/changing distribution of dermatitis, or pattern suggestive of ACD; with therapy-resistant hand eczema in the working population; with adult- or adolescent-onset AD; and/or before initiating systemic immunosuppressants for the treatment of dermatitis. A suggested patch testing algorithm for AD patients is provided. PMID:27427820

  20. Prioritizing multiple health behavior change research topics: expert opinions in behavior change science.

    PubMed

    Amato, Katie; Park, Eunhee; Nigg, Claudio R

    2016-06-01

    Multiple health behavior change (MHBC) approaches are understudied. The purpose of this study is to provide strategic MHBC research direction. This cross-sectional study contacted participants through the Society of Behavioral Medicine email listservs and rated the importance of 24 MHBC research topics (1 = not at all important, 5 = extremely important) separately for general and underserved populations. Participants (n = 76) were 79 % female; 76 % White, 10 % Asian, 8 % African American, 5 % Hispanic, and 1 % Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander. Top MHBC research priorities were predictors of behavior change and the sustainability, long-term effects, and dissemination/translation of interventions for both populations. Recruitment and retention of participants (t(68) = 2.17, p = 0.000), multi-behavioral indices (t(68) = 3.54, p = 0.001), and measurement burden (t(67) = 5.04, p = 0.001) were important for the underserved. Results identified the same top research priorities across populations. For the underserved, research should emphasize recruitment, retention, and measurement burden. PMID:27356992

  1. Expert opinion on first-line therapy in the treatment of castration-resistant prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Maroto, Pablo; Solsona, Eduardo; Gallardo, Enrique; Mellado, Begoña; Morote, Juan; Arranz, José Ángel; Gómez-Veiga, Francisco; Unda, Miguel; Climent, Miguel Ángel; Alcaraz, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Treatment of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) has been revolutionized in recent years. It is well known that androgen receptor is still active in most patients with disease progression and serum testosterone levels <50 ng/dL. Moreover, further hormonal maneuvers, either through decreasing androgen levels (abiraterone) or by targeting the androgen receptor (AR) pathway (enzalutamide), prolong survival. In addition, a new cytostatic able to overcome docetaxel resistance, cabazitaxel, and the radioisotope radium 223 have been incorporated to the armamentarium of mCRPC. mCRPC is not only a heterogeneous tumor, it changes over time developing neuroendocrine features or selection of clones resistant to hormonal maneuvers. In addition, the multiplicity of current treatments, make it necessary to design algorithms that help the specialist to choose the most appropriate treatment for a particular patient. The lack of randomized trials comparing face to face the different available options limit the scope of this review. In this article, the authors describe the prognostic factors for first line therapy in patients with mCRPC, and propose a treatment algorithm for mCRPC based on the levels of scientific evidence available and, if not available, on the consensus between medical professionals. Finally, the panel discuss how to define progressive disease in the setting of mCRPC and treatment with targeted therapies. PMID:26363809

  2. Recurrent Issues in Efforts to Prevent Homicidal Youth Violence in Schools: Expert Opinions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dill, Karen E.; Redding, Richard E.; Smith, Peter K.; Surette, Ray; Cornell, Dewey G.

    2011-01-01

    Developmental research on social influences on adolescents can guide practices aimed to prevent homicidal youth violence. School shootings have repeatedly raised questions about the contributory role of bullying and entertainment violence, how news media publicity might produce copycat crimes, and whether stiffer criminal sanctions might have a…

  3. [Expert Opinion Cases - What documentation is necessary from a legal perspective?].

    PubMed

    Weis, Evelyn

    2016-05-01

    Doctors are obliged by professional code and civil law (630 f German Civil Code [BGB] §) to document their medical activities in relation to patients. The documentation serves as proof of executed measures and thus for backing up medical/therapeutic issues. Documentation shall be made immediately after or during the treatment and if the original content remains recognizable, can be supplemented/modified. The patient record may be kept in paper form or in electronic form. Medical records are to be stored at least for 10 years. Some special laws (eg. laws governing X rays, Transfusion Act) require that documents be stored for longer periods. Documentation errors are - unlike patient information errors/medical malpractice - no basis for damages claims by the patient, but may result in medical malpractice process with the burden of proof in favor of the patient (§ 630 h BGB). The patient has, in principle, the right to inspect the medical documents relating to him. PMID:27219297

  4. Risks and Benefits of Late Onset Hypogonadism Treatment: An Expert Opinion

    PubMed Central

    Corona, Giovanni; Vignozzi, Linda; Sforza, Alessandra

    2013-01-01

    Late-onset hypogonadism (LOH) is a syndromic condition that has a well-recognized association with sexual and reproductive failure. LOH is frequently associated with chronic conditions including cardiovascular diseases (CVD), obesity, osteoporosis, HIV infection, renal failure, and obstructive pulmonary diseases. Despite this evidence, in patients with these conditions, LOH is still only rarely investigated and testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) rarely considered. In this paper, we critically reviewed the available evidence on LOH treatment focusing on possible risks and benefits. Medical therapy of LOH should be individualized depending on the etiology of the disease and the patient's expectations. The fear of prostate cancer and the risk of erythrocytosis probably represent the main limitations of TRT in aging men. However, TRT in healthy older men in near physiological doses does not appear to incur serious adverse events, although regular monitoring of prostate-specific antigen and hematocrit levels is required. Available evidence also suggests that TRT might ameliorate central obesity and glycometabolic control in patients with metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes. In addition, TRT has been associated with an increase in bone mineral density in men with osteoporosis, with an improvement in lean body mass in subjects with human immunodeficiency virus infection or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, as well as with peripheral oxygenation in patients with chronic kidney diseases. Despite this evidence, however, it should be recognized that the results of these trials were heterogeneous and limited by small sample sizes. Hence, further research is required regarding the long-term benefits and adverse effects of TRT in LOH. PMID:24044106

  5. A survey on chronic rhinosinusitis: opinions from experts of 50 countries.

    PubMed

    Passali, Desiderio; Cingi, Cemal; Cambi, Jacopo; Passali, Francesco; Muluk, Nuray Bayar; Bellussi, Maria Luisa

    2016-08-01

    Chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) is a very prevalent inflammatory disease. Treatments vary in different countries. In the present study, we explored the approaches of physicians in 50 countries. In this cross-sectional study, a rhinosinusitis survey (RSS) was completed by Honorary and Corresponding Members (otorhinolaryngologists) of the Italian Society of Rhinology. In 79.1 % of the 50 countries, the proportion of patients suffering from CRS was 15 %. Nasal symptoms were more intense in winter (46 % of countries), and spring and autumn (22 %). The most common symptoms were nasal obstruction (86 %), postnasal drip (82 %) and headache (52 %). The most common investigative modalities in the assessment of CRS are paranasal sinus CT, fiberoptic endoscopy, and anterior rhinoscopy. CRS patients were principally treated by otorhinolaryngologists (70 %). Medical treatments included nasal corticosteroids (90 %), nasal washes (68 %), and nasal decongestants (32 %). In 88 % of countries, more than 50 %, or "about 50 %", of all patients reported subjective symptom improvement after treatment. In most of the countries, surgery was required by 20-35 % of all CRS patients. During post-surgery follow-up, nasal washes (90 %), nasal corticosteroids (76 %), and systemic antibiotics (32 %) were prescribed. In 20-40 % of all patients, CRS was associated with nasal polyps. In such patients, the medical treatment options were nasal corticosteroids (90 %), systemic corticosteroids (50 %), nasal washes (46 %), and systemic antibiotics (34 %). Treatment of CRS patients varies in different countries. Paranasal sinus CT is the most common investigative modality in the assessment of CRS, and nasal corticosteroids are the first-line treatment, in the absence or presence of nasal polyps. PMID:26742909

  6. 15 CFR 15.16 - Legal proceedings between private litigants: Expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... proceedings between private litigants: (a) If a Department employee is authorized to give testimony in a legal... activities except on behalf of the United States or a party represented by the United States Department of Justice. However, upon a showing by the requester that there are exceptional circumstances and that...

  7. Expert opinion: Assessing cochlear implant candidacy and progress for people with English as an additional language.

    PubMed

    Mahon, Merle; Rajput, Kaukab; Vickers, Debi

    2016-04-01

    Special considerations relating to cochlear implants (CIs) are necessary for deaf people for whom English is an additional language (EAL). The audiological and pre-linguistic skills criteria for CI candidacy are the same for children with EAL as for children from English-speaking families. However, thorough assessment is not straightforward, for example, requiring employment of experienced interpreters. To ensure family engagement and thus appropriate support in the home, clear understanding of the family's social and cultural framework and of their needs and requirements is essential. Equally, the family must be enabled to understand the implications of CI. Additional training of staff in CI teams may be needed. This article will address these and other issues for children and also consider the situation for adults. PMID:27099114

  8. [Legal characteristics of expert opinions of anaesthetic cases of the North German Arbitration Board].

    PubMed

    Schaffartzik, Walter; Hachenberg, Thomas; Kols, Kerstin; Neu, Johann

    2016-05-01

    The Arbitration Board for Medical Liability Issues of the State Medical Councils of Northern Germany in Hannover (North German Arbitration Board, NGAB) settles about 100 cases in the area of anaesthesiology per year. In these proceedings the patient carries the burden of proof. I. e. the patient has to prove that its health damage was caused by a medical error. Nevertheless, for individual cases the NGAB examines also whether facilitation of the burden of proof can be granted to the patient. This article exemplifies cases, for which the NGAB recognized such facilitation of the burden of proof. In each of these cases, the NGAB asserted the damage claim. PMID:27213605

  9. Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge.

    PubMed

    Chamberlain, Dan E; Pedrini, Paolo; Brambilla, Mattia; Rolando, Antonio; Girardello, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds). For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community. PMID:26966659

  10. Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

    PubMed Central

    Pedrini, Paolo; Brambilla, Mattia; Rolando, Antonio; Girardello, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds). For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community. PMID:26966659

  11. Obstetricians’ Opinions of the Optimal Caesarean Rate: A Global Survey

    PubMed Central

    Cavallaro, Francesca L.; Cresswell, Jenny A.; Ronsmans, Carine

    2016-01-01

    Background The debate surrounding the optimal caesarean rate has been ongoing for several decades, with the WHO recommending an “acceptable” rate of 5–15% since 1997, despite a weak evidence base. Global expert opinion from obstetric care providers on the optimal caesarean rate has not been documented. The objective of this study was to examine providers’ opinions of the optimal caesarean rate worldwide, among all deliveries and within specific sub-groups of deliveries. Methods A global online survey of medical doctors who had performed at least one caesarean in the last five years was conducted between August 2013 and January 2014. Respondents were asked to report their opinion of the optimal caesarean rate—defined as the caesarean rate that would minimise poor maternal and perinatal outcomes—at the population level and within specific sub-groups of deliveries (including women with demographic and clinical risk factors for caesareans). Median reported optimal rates and corresponding inter-quartile ranges (IQRs) were calculated for the sample, and stratified according to national caesarean rate, institutional caesarean rate, facility level, and respondent characteristics. Results Responses were collected from 1,057 medical doctors from 96 countries. The median reported optimal caesarean rate was 20% (IQR: 15–30%) for all deliveries. Providers in private for-profit facilities and in facilities with high institutional rates reported optimal rates of 30% or above, while those in Europe, in public facilities and in facilities with low institutional rates reported rates of 15% or less. Reported optimal rates were lowest among low-risk deliveries and highest for Absolute Maternal Indications (AMIs), with wide IQRs observed for most categories other than AMIs. Conclusions Three-quarters of respondents reported an optimal caesarean rate above the WHO 15% upper threshold. There was substantial variation in responses, highlighting a lack of consensus around

  12. Should Committees That Write Guidelines and Recommendations Publish Dissenting Opinions?

    PubMed

    Musher, Daniel M

    2016-05-01

    Medical guidelines tend to convey a sense of unanimity of opinion that may not reflect the deliberations of the experts who wrote them. Using, as an example, an analysis of the recently published recommendations on administering pneumococcal conjugate vaccine to adults, the present article raises the question of whether official recommendations and guidelines should include dissenting opinions, analogous to decisions issued by the US Supreme Court. The argument that such a policy would lead to confusion in our profession is addressed in 2 ways: (1) the current system, in which different professional societies publish conflicting recommendations, as in the case of breast or prostate cancer screening, can be far more confusing, and (2) in the long run, greater transparency will lead to more thoughtful and higher-quality medical care. Perhaps the most important point of this paper is the suggestion that it is far better to bring dissent into the recommendation process than to act as if it is not there. PMID:27061767

  13. Applied Linguists and Institutions of Opinion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Myers, Greg

    2005-01-01

    Public opinion research is not an area that has received much attention from applied linguists. But language lies at the heart of the procedures used to define, elicit, and report opinions, whether through such methods as polling, interviews, and focus groups, or through the less obvious channels of vox pop interviews, letters to the editor, radio…

  14. A Public Opinion Survey on Educational Planning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Puzzuoli, David A.; Gillespie, John O.

    Major objectives of this planning study were (1) to determine public opinion as related to the need for a "multi-county" educational service unit and (2) to determine public opinion on selected school functions as they are presently organized in Region II, West Virginia. The 3 phases of the study consisted of development of the questionnaire by…

  15. Collaborators' Attitudes about Differences of Opinion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Creamer, Elizabeth G.

    2004-01-01

    This article describes how long-term collaborators interpret substantive differences of opinion and the strategies they use to negotiate them. Long-term collaborators are coauthors who have had a working relationship for ten or more years. Differences of opinion refer to differences in interpretation about substantive issues related to research…

  16. Museum Personnel's Opinions on Mobile Guidance Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yoshimura, Hirokazu; Sekiguchi, Hiromi; Yabumoto, Yoshitaka

    2007-01-01

    While opinions from the general public are certainly important, opinions from the museum staff are also necessary to improve user service systems. this article introduces two groups of museum staff who have evaluated the usability of mobile guidance systems in Japanese museums. One group is the research team who used the PDA system in the National…

  17. Public Opinion Poll Question Databases: An Evaluation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woods, Stephen

    2007-01-01

    This paper evaluates five polling resource: iPOLL, Polling the Nations, Gallup Brain, Public Opinion Poll Question Database, and Polls and Surveys. Content was evaluated on disclosure standards from major polling organizations, scope on a model for public opinion polls, and presentation on a flow chart discussing search limitations and usability.

  18. Internet Censorship in Turkey: University Students' Opinions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ozkan, Hasan; Arikan, Arda

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to study university students' opinions toward online censorship with references to their socio-political and economic variables. Considering the upwards trend and the increasing number of online restrictions in Turkey, the opinions of university students (n=138) are thought to give significant findings. The questionnaire…

  19. Public Opinion Poll on Community Priorities: Sacramento

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sierra Health Foundation, 2009

    2009-01-01

    The primary goal of this study was to measure public perceptions, opinions and priorities as they pertain to youth issues in Sacramento for the purposes of further developing public and private youth programming and public policy in the Sacramento region. By presenting a "statistically reliable" profile of public opinion on youth issues, the…

  20. 17 CFR 200.63 - Commission opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Commission opinions. 200.63 Section 200.63 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION ORGANIZATION; CONDUCT AND ETHICS; AND INFORMATION AND REQUESTS Canons of Ethics § 200.63 Commission opinions. The...