Science.gov

Sample records for agents expert opinion

  1. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    PubMed Central

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops. PMID:24637724

  2. Opinion evolution influenced by informed agents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Kangqi; Pedrycz, Witold

    2016-11-01

    Guiding public opinions toward a pre-set target by informed agents can be a strategy adopted in some practical applications. The informed agents are common agents who are employed or chosen to spread the pre-set opinion. In this work, we propose a social judgment based opinion (SJBO) dynamics model to explore the opinion evolution under the influence of informed agents. The SJBO model distinguishes between inner opinions and observable choices, and incorporates both the compromise between similar opinions and the repulsion between dissimilar opinions. Three choices (support, opposition, and remaining undecided) are considered in the SJBO model. Using the SJBO model, both the inner opinions and the observable choices can be tracked during the opinion evolution process. The simulation results indicate that if the exchanges of inner opinions among agents are not available, the effect of informed agents is mainly dependent on the characteristics of regular agents, including the assimilation threshold, decay threshold, and initial opinions. Increasing the assimilation threshold and decay threshold can improve the guiding effectiveness of informed agents. Moreover, if the initial opinions of regular agents are close to null, the full and unanimous consensus at the pre-set opinion can be realized, indicating that, to maximize the influence of informed agents, the guidance should be started when regular agents have little knowledge about a subject under consideration. If the regular agents have had clear opinions, the full and unanimous consensus at the pre-set opinion cannot be achieved. However, the introduction of informed agents can make the majority of agents choose the pre-set opinion.

  3. 14 CFR 406.157 - Expert or opinion witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Expert or opinion witnesses. 406.157 Section 406.157 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.157 Expert or opinion witnesses. An employee...

  4. 14 CFR 406.157 - Expert or opinion witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Expert or opinion witnesses. 406.157 Section 406.157 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.157 Expert or opinion witnesses. An employee...

  5. 14 CFR 406.157 - Expert or opinion witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Expert or opinion witnesses. 406.157 Section 406.157 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.157 Expert or opinion witnesses. An employee...

  6. 14 CFR 406.157 - Expert or opinion witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Expert or opinion witnesses. 406.157 Section 406.157 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.157 Expert or opinion witnesses. An employee...

  7. 14 CFR 406.157 - Expert or opinion witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Expert or opinion witnesses. 406.157 Section 406.157 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... Practice in FAA Space Transportation Adjudications § 406.157 Expert or opinion witnesses. An employee...

  8. Survey of expert opinions and related recommendations regarding bridging therapy using hypomethylating agents followed by allogeneic transplantation for high-risk MDS.

    PubMed

    Sohn, Sang Kyun; Moon, Joon Ho

    2015-08-01

    According to current guidelines on therapeutic strategies for myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), cytoreductive therapies before allogeneic stem cell transplantation (SCT) are not widely recommended for patients with high-risk MDS or refractory anemia with excess blasts (RAEB) who are eligible for allogeneic SCT because of controversial evidence on the role of such therapies. Yet, while treatment with hypomethylating agents (HMAs) has a critical limitation in eradicating MDS clones, the use of HMA treatment as a bridge to allogeneic SCT has become a focus with the hope of improving the SCT outcome based on the chance of achieving complete remission or reducing the blast percentage safely and effectively before allogeneic SCT. However, a consensus needs to be established on the use of HMAs as a bridging therapy for high-risk MDS or RAEB. Thus, the Korean AML/MDS working party group surveyed 34 Korean MDS experts on their bridging therapies for high-risk MDS. Accordingly, this paper presents the survey questionnaire and resulting data, along with a summary of the consensus and related recommendations regarding strategies using HMA treatment and allogeneic SCT based on reported studies and the current survey results.

  9. Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions

    PubMed Central

    Billari, F C; Graziani, R; Melilli, E

    2012-01-01

    The paper develops and applies an expert-based stochastic population forecasting method, which can also be used to obtain a probabilistic version of scenario-based official forecasts. The full probability distribution of population forecasts is specified by starting from expert opinions on the future development of demographic components. Expert opinions are elicited as conditional on the realization of scenarios, in a two-step (or multiple-step) fashion. The method is applied to develop a stochastic forecast for the Italian population, starting from official scenarios from the Italian National Statistical Office. PMID:22879704

  10. Some properties of probability inversion algorithms to elicit expert opinion.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lark, Murray

    2015-04-01

    Probability inversion methods have been developed to infer underlying expert utility functions from rankings that experts offer of subsets of scenarios. The method assumes that the expert ranking reflects an underlying utility, which can be modelled as a function of predictive covariates. This is potentially useful as a method for the extraction of expert opinions for prediction in new scenarios. Two particular algorithms are considered here, the IPF algorithm and the PURE algorithm. The former always converges for consistent sets of rankings and finds a solution which minimizes the mutual information of the estimated utilities and an initial random sample of proposed utilities drawn in the algorithm. In this poster I report some empirical studies on the probability inversion procedure, investigating the effects of the size of the expert panel, the consistency and quality of the expert panel and the validity of the predictive covariates. These results have practical implications for the design of elicitation by probability inversion methods.

  11. 29 CFR 18.703 - Bases of opinion testimony by experts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Bases of opinion testimony by experts. 18.703 Section 18.703... Bases of opinion testimony by experts. The facts or data in the particular case upon which an expert bases an opinion or inference may be those perceived by or made known to the expert at or before...

  12. 29 CFR 18.703 - Bases of opinion testimony by experts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2014-07-01 2013-07-01 true Bases of opinion testimony by experts. 18.703 Section 18.703... Bases of opinion testimony by experts. The facts or data in the particular case upon which an expert bases an opinion or inference may be those perceived by or made known to the expert at or before...

  13. 29 CFR 18.705 - Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion. 18... Testimony § 18.705 Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion. The expert may testify in terms of opinion or inference and give reasons therefor without prior disclosure of the underlying facts or...

  14. 29 CFR 18.705 - Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion. 18... Testimony § 18.705 Disclosure of facts or data underlying expert opinion. The expert may testify in terms of opinion or inference and give reasons therefor without prior disclosure of the underlying facts or...

  15. Agent Argumentation with Opinions and Advice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Debenham, John; Sierra, Carles

    In argumentation-based negotiation the rhetorical illocutionary particles Appeals, Rewards and Threats have implications for the players that extend beyond a single negotiation and are concerned with building (business) relationships. This paper extends an agent's relationship-building argumentative repertoire with Opinions and Advice. A framework is described that enables agents to model their relationships and to use argumentative dialogue strategically both to achieve good negotiation outcomes and to build and sustain valuable relationships.

  16. Thrombolysis and thrombectomy in patients treated with dabigatran with acute ischemic stroke: Expert opinion.

    PubMed

    Diener, H C; Bernstein, R; Butcher, K; Campbell, B; Cloud, G; Davalos, A; Davis, S; Ferro, J M; Grond, M; Krieger, D; Ntaios, G; Slowik, A; Touzé, E

    2017-01-01

    Systemic thrombolysis with rt-PA is contraindicated in patients with acute ischemic stroke anticoagulated with dabigatran. This expert opinion provides guidance on the use of the specific reversal agent idarucizumab followed by rt-PA and/or thrombectomy in patients with ischemic stroke pre-treated with dabigatran. The use of idarucizumab followed by rt-PA is covered by the label of both drugs.

  17. Refining literature curated protein interactions using expert opinions.

    PubMed

    Tastan, Oznur; Qi, Yanjun; Carbonell, Jaime G; Klein-Seetharaman, Judith

    2015-01-01

    The availability of high-quality physical interaction datasets is a prerequisite for system-level analysis of interactomes and supervised models to predict protein-protein interactions (PPIs). One source is literature-curated PPI databases in which pairwise associations of proteins published in the scientific literature are deposited. However, PPIs may not be clearly labelled as physical interactions affecting the quality of the entire dataset. In order to obtain a high-quality gold standard dataset for PPIs between human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1) and its human host, we adopted a crowd-sourcing approach. We collected expert opinions and utilized an expectation-maximization based approach to estimate expert labeling quality. These estimates are used to infer the probability of a reported PPI actually being a direct physical interaction given the set of expert opinions. The effectiveness of our approach is demonstrated through synthetic data experiments and a high quality physical interaction network between HIV and human proteins is obtained. Since many literature-curated databases suffer from similar challenges, the framework described herein could be utilized in refining other databases. The curated data is available at http://www.cs.bilkent.edu.tr/~oznur.tastan/supp/psb2015/.

  18. Expert Opinion: Responsive Polymer Nanoparticles in Cancer Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Liechty, William B.; Peppas, Nicholas A.

    2011-01-01

    Polymeric nanoparticles are emerging as an attractive treatment options for cancer due to their favorable size distribution, drug carrying capacity, and tunable properties. In particular, intelligent nanoparticles that respond to biological cues are of interest because of their ability to provide controlled release at a specific site. Tumor sites display abnormal pH profiles and pathophysiology that can be exploited to provide localized release. In this expert opinion, we discuss passive and active targeting of nanoparticles and several classes of pH-responsive nanoparticles. PMID:21888972

  19. Current and Emerging Ethical Issues in Counseling: A Delphi Study of Expert Opinions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herlihy, Barbara; Dufrene, Roxane L.

    2011-01-01

    A Delphi study was conducted to ascertain the opinions of panel experts regarding the most important current and emerging ethical issues facing the counseling profession. Expert opinions on ethical issues in counselor preparation also were sought. Eighteen panelists responded to 3 rounds of data collection interspersed with feedback. Themes that…

  20. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence: the precautionary principle applied to GM crops.

    PubMed

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops.

  1. Melasma and Post Inflammatory Hyperpigmentation: Management Update and Expert Opinion.

    PubMed

    Sofen, B; Prado, G; Emer, J

    2016-01-01

    Dyschromia is a leading cause for cosmetic consultation, especially in those with diverse skin types (mixture of ethnicities) and with the rise of non-core and untrained physicians performing cosmetic procedures. Melasma and post-inflammatory hyperpigmentation (PIH) account for the majority of cases and are characterized by pigmented macules and patches distributed symmetrically in sun-exposed areas of the forehead, cheeks, and chin in melasma, and irregularly in areas of inflammation or an inciting traumatic event with PIH. Treatment is challenging and focused on a variety of mechanisms to stop, hinder, and/or prevent steps in the pigment production (melanocytic hyperactivity) process, breaking down deposited pigment for internal removal or external release, exfoliating cells to enhance turnover, and decreasing inflammation. Topical lightening therapy in combination with sun protection is essential for potential improvement. The most commonly prescribed and researched topical lightening agents are hydroquinone (HQ), azelaic acid (AzA), and retinoids - although only HQ and a triple combination cream (Tri-Luma®; fluocinolone acetonide 0.01%, HQ 4%, tretinoin 0.05%) are US FDA-approved for "bleaching of hyperpigmented skin" (HQ) and "melasma" (Tri-Luma®). Numerous non-HQ brightening/lightening agents, including antioxidant and botanical cosmeceuticals, have recently flooded the market with improvements that claim less irritant potential, as well as avoiding the stigmata associated with HQ agents such as carcinogenesis and cutaneous ochronosis. Combining topical therapy with procedures such as chemical peels, intense pulsed light (IPL), fractional non-ablative lasers or radiofrequency, pigment lasers (microsecond, picosecond, Q-switched), and microneedling, enhances results. With proper treatment, melasma can be controlled, improved, and maintained; alternatively, PIH can be cured in most cases. Herein, we review treatments for both conditions and provide an opinion

  2. 42 CFR 411.377 - Expert opinions from outside sources.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... of accountants or business experts to assess the structure of a complex business arrangement or to ascertain a physician's or immediate family member's financial relationship with entities that...

  3. Testing the Stability of Experts' Opinions between Successive Rounds of Delphi Studies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Yu Nu

    The Delphi method is a means of structuring group communication process so that a group of experts can gather information or forecast future problems effectively. A primary objective of a Delphi study is to obtain consensual and consistent opinions from a group of experts in two or more successive rounds on a given research subject. Consensus and…

  4. The reliability of experts' opinions in constructing a composite environmental index: the case of ESI 2005.

    PubMed

    Giannetti, B F; Bonilla, S H; Silva, C C; Almeida, C M V B

    2009-06-01

    The complexity of the environment demands a well-constructed composite environmental index (CEI) to provide a useful tool to draw attention to environmental conditions and trends for policy purposes. Among the common difficulties in constructing a proper CEI are uncertainties due to the selection of the most representative underlying variables or indicators. A degree of uncertainty accompanies experts' judgments, and to deal with vague, subjective or inconsistent information, logic other than classic is required. This study analyzes a procedure that uses different experts' opinions in constructing a CEI, with the use of paraconsistent annotated logic. For this, a sensitivity analysis of the Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI 2005) was used as an example to assess the reliability of experts' opinions. The uncertainty due to the disagreement in experts' opinions clearly indicates that the forms we presently use to measure and monitor the actual environment are insufficient, that is, there is a lack of a "science of sustainability".

  5. Comparing Powerpoint Experts' and University Students' Opinions about Powerpoint Presentations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mackiewicz, Jo

    2008-01-01

    Technical communication instructors want to help students, as well as professionals, design effective PowerPoint presentations. Toward this end, I compare the advice of academic and industry experts about effective PowerPoint presentation design to survey responses from university students about slide text, visual elements, animations, and other…

  6. Expert Opinions on Nutrition Issues in Clinical Dentistry.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Palmer, Carole A.; And Others

    1990-01-01

    A survey of 79 experts in dental nutrition sought consensus on the appropriate scope of nutrition in clinical dentistry. Results support the need for greater attention to nutrition issues in dental schools and better models for nutrition interventions in dental practice. (Author/MSE)

  7. Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

  8. The Appeal to Expert Opinion: Quantitative Support for a Bayesian Network Approach.

    PubMed

    Harris, Adam J L; Hahn, Ulrike; Madsen, Jens K; Hsu, Anne S

    2016-08-01

    The appeal to expert opinion is an argument form that uses the verdict of an expert to support a position or hypothesis. A previous scheme-based treatment of the argument form is formalized within a Bayesian network that is able to capture the critical aspects of the argument form, including the central considerations of the expert's expertise and trustworthiness. We propose this as an appropriate normative framework for the argument form, enabling the development and testing of quantitative predictions as to how people evaluate this argument, suggesting that such an approach might be beneficial to argumentation research generally. We subsequently present two experiments as an example of the potential for future research in this vein, demonstrating that participants' quantitative ratings of the convincingness of a proposition that has been supported with an appeal to expert opinion were broadly consistent with the predictions of the Bayesian model.

  9. [The "reasonable effort of will" in the expert opinion in social medicine].

    PubMed

    Foerster, K; Dressing, H

    2010-09-01

    The assessment of "effort of will" and "reasonableness" in the social medical expert opinion needs the empirical recording of concrete psychopathological and/or physical symptoms and its connection to fitness for work. The discussion of abstract, philosophical problems is not necessary. From the psychiatric point of view, a proposal for handling these complex terms is presented. The expert assessment should be carried out in several steps.

  10. Classification of Word Levels with Usage Frequency, Expert Opinions and Machine Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sohsah, Gihad N.; Ünal, Muhammed Esad; Güzey, Onur

    2015-01-01

    Educational applications for language teaching can utilize the language levels of words to target proficiency levels of students. This paper and the accompanying data provide a methodology for making educational standard-aligned language-level predictions for all English words. The methodology involves expert opinions on language levels and…

  11. 45 CFR 1201.10 - Prohibition on providing expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Prohibition on providing expert or opinion testimony. 1201.10 Section 1201.10 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) CORPORATION FOR NATIONAL AND COMMUNITY SERVICE PRODUCTION OR DISCLOSURE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION IN RESPONSE TO COURT ORDERS, SUBPOENAS, NOTICES...

  12. Child Assessment at the Preprimary Level: Expert Opinion and State Trends. Occasional Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Horton, Carol; Bowman, Barbara T.

    In Spring 2001, Erikson Institute conducted two surveys to provide practical information on the current state of expert opinion and public practice with regard to the assessment of prekindergarten children. The first survey questioned a select group of 25 national leaders in the early childhood field regarding the most important components of a…

  13. Climate Change to the Year 2000: A Survey of Expert Opinion.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Institute for the Future, Menlo Park, CA.

    This survey of expert opinion was conducted by the National Defense University, Washington, D.C. to quantify the likelihood of significant changes in climate and their practical consequences. The major objectives of the study are embodied in four tasks. This publication presents the results of the first task only: the definition and estimation of…

  14. Survey of Expert Opinion on Intelligence: Causes of International Differences in Cognitive Ability Tests

    PubMed Central

    Rindermann, Heiner; Becker, David; Coyle, Thomas R.

    2016-01-01

    Following Snyderman and Rothman (1987, 1988), we surveyed expert opinions on the current state of intelligence research. This report examines expert opinions on causes of international differences in student assessment and psychometric IQ test results. Experts were surveyed about the importance of culture, genes, education (quantity and quality), wealth, health, geography, climate, politics, modernization, sampling error, test knowledge, discrimination, test bias, and migration. The importance of these factors was evaluated for diverse countries, regions, and groups including Finland, East Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Europe, the Arabian-Muslim world, Latin America, Israel, Jews in the West, Roma (gypsies), and Muslim immigrants. Education was rated by N = 71 experts as the most important cause of international ability differences. Genes were rated as the second most relevant factor but also had the highest variability in ratings. Culture, health, wealth, modernization, and politics were the next most important factors, whereas other factors such as geography, climate, test bias, and sampling error were less important. The paper concludes with a discussion of limitations of the survey (e.g., response rates and validity of expert opinions). PMID:27047425

  15. Stochastic model of agent interaction with opinion leaders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellero, Andrea; Fasano, Giovanni; Sorato, Annamaria

    2013-04-01

    We analyze the problem of agents' interactions in a given population. The purpose of this paper is twofold. Starting from a scheme proposed by Galam [Physica A0378-437110.1016/S0378-4371(02)01582-0 320, 571 (2003)], which is based on a majority rule to treat the individuals’ interactions, we first study some of its relevant properties. Then, we introduce special individuals, called opinion leaders, who play a key role in information spreading in several practical applications. Opinion leaders have the special feature of strongly interfering with the process based on the majority rule, speeding up the diffusion. We consider a model describing agents’ interactions, which encompasses Galam's proposal, where opinion leaders are included as special agents. Then we study its specific properties which significantly recast and extend some conclusions drawn for the models given by Galam and Ellero, Fasano, and Sorato [Physica A0378-437110.1016/j.physa.2009.06.002 388, 3901 (2009)]. Finally, we provide theoretical and numerical results concerning the dynamics of our model, showing that a small percentage of opinion leaders may both accelerate and/or even reverse the overall consensus among all the agents.

  16. A field experiment testing frontline opinion leaders as change agents.

    PubMed

    Lam, S S; Schaubroeck, J

    2000-12-01

    On the basis of previous studies of source credibility and opinion leadership, the authors hypothesized that opinion leaders would serve as effective agents to promote positive attitudes toward a service-quality initiative and increase service-quality effectiveness. The service effectiveness of tellers before and after a service-quality leadership training program was rated by customers, supervisors, and the tellers themselves across 3 matched bank branches. Service effectiveness was rated significantly higher in a branch using opinion leaders as service-quality leaders compared with a branch using randomly selected frontline leaders. Tellers in the latter branch showed greater improvements in service effectiveness than did counterparts in a branch using no frontline service quality leaders. This difference between types of leaders appeared to be mediated by tellers' behavioral beliefs about the service-quality program.

  17. Using expert opinion surveys to rank threats to endangered species: a case study with sea turtles.

    PubMed

    Donlan, C Josh; Wingfield, Dana K; Crowder, Larry B; Wilcox, Chris

    2010-12-01

    Little is known about how specific anthropogenic hazards affect the biology of organisms. Quantifying the effect of regional hazards is particularly challenging for species such as sea turtles because they are migratory, difficult to study, long lived, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation, a technique used to synthesize opinions of experts while assessing uncertainty around those views, has been in use for several decades in the social science and risk assessment sectors. We conducted an internet-based survey to quantify expert opinion on the relative magnitude of anthropogenic hazards to sea turtle populations at the regional level. Fisheries bycatch and coastal development were most often ranked as the top hazards to sea turtle species in a geographic region. Nest predation and direct take followed as the second and third greatest threats, respectively. Survey results suggest most experts believe sea turtles are threatened by multiple factors, including substantial at-sea threats such as fisheries bycatch. Resources invested by the sea turtle community, however, appear biased toward terrestrial-based impacts. Results from the survey are useful for conservation planning because they provide estimates of relative impacts of hazards on sea turtles and a measure of consensus on the magnitude of those impacts among researchers and practitioners. Our survey results also revealed patterns of expert bias, which we controlled for in our analysis. Respondents with no experience with respect to a sea turtle species tended to rank hazards affecting that sea turtle species higher than respondents with experience. A more-striking pattern was with hazard-based expertise: the more experience a respondent had with a specific hazard, the higher the respondent scored the impact of that hazard on sea turtle populations. Bias-controlled expert opinion surveys focused on threatened species and their hazards can help guide and expedite species recovery plans.

  18. Formalising expert opinion through multi-attribute value functions: an application in landscape ecology.

    PubMed

    Geneletti, Davide

    2005-08-01

    One of the main objectives of landscape ecology is to orient land-use planning by providing indications of optimal ecosystem patterning to support nature conservation. A frequent limitation to the practical use of the findings of landscape ecological studies is that they tend to focus on the identification and computation of indicators rather than on their interpretation and assessment. This paper presents and discusses the use of a methodology to formalise expert opinion through the elicitation of multi-attribute value functions. In particular, the value functions aim at assessing spatial indicators so as to provide an overall judgment of the viability of different ecosystem patches. The result consisted of the ranking of the ecosystems according to their degree of viability and therefore their suitability for nature conservation. The method of formalising expert opinion and knowledge complements traditional analyses based on the measurement of spatial ecological indicators.

  19. Short-term Forecasting of the Prevalence of Trachoma: Expert Opinion, Statistical Regression, versus Transmission Models

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Fengchen; Porco, Travis C.; Amza, Abdou; Kadri, Boubacar; Nassirou, Baido; West, Sheila K.; Bailey, Robin L.; Keenan, Jeremy D.; Solomon, Anthony W.; Emerson, Paul M.; Gambhir, Manoj; Lietman, Thomas M.

    2015-01-01

    Background Trachoma programs rely on guidelines made in large part using expert opinion of what will happen with and without intervention. Large community-randomized trials offer an opportunity to actually compare forecasting methods in a masked fashion. Methods The Program for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma trials estimated longitudinal prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection from 24 communities treated annually with mass azithromycin. Given antibiotic coverage and biannual assessments from baseline through 30 months, forecasts of the prevalence of infection in each of the 24 communities at 36 months were made by three methods: the sum of 15 experts’ opinion, statistical regression of the square-root-transformed prevalence, and a stochastic hidden Markov model of infection transmission (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible, or SIS model). All forecasters were masked to the 36-month results and to the other forecasts. Forecasts of the 24 communities were scored by the likelihood of the observed results and compared using Wilcoxon’s signed-rank statistic. Findings Regression and SIS hidden Markov models had significantly better likelihood than community expert opinion (p = 0.004 and p = 0.01, respectively). All forecasts scored better when perturbed to decrease Fisher’s information. Each individual expert’s forecast was poorer than the sum of experts. Interpretation Regression and SIS models performed significantly better than expert opinion, although all forecasts were overly confident. Further model refinements may score better, although would need to be tested and compared in new masked studies. Construction of guidelines that rely on forecasting future prevalence could consider use of mathematical and statistical models. PMID:26302380

  20. Can journalistic "false balance" distort public perception of consensus in expert opinion?

    PubMed

    Koehler, Derek J

    2016-03-01

    Media critics have expressed concern that journalistic "false balance" can distort the public's perceptions of what ought to be noncontroversial subjects (e.g., climate change). I report several experiments testing the influence of presenting conflicting comments from 2 experts who disagree on an issue (balance condition) in addition to a complete count of the number of experts on a panel who favor either side. Compared with a control condition, who received only the complete count, participants in the balance condition gave ratings of the perceived agreement among the experts that did not discriminate as clearly between issues with and without strong expert consensus. Participants in the balance condition also perceived less agreement among the experts in general, and were less likely to think that there was enough agreement among experts on the high-consensus issues to guide government policy. Evidently, "false balance" can distort perceptions of expert opinion even when participants would seem to have all the information needed to correct for its influence.

  1. Remarks on the assessment, representation, aggregation and utilization of expert opinion

    SciTech Connect

    Fine, T.L.

    1980-04-01

    This report considers the relevance of recent ideas in the foundations of probability to the rational use of expert opinion in the design of a nuclear waste repository, and the assessment of its performance. The main probability concepts introduce are those of modal (probably A), comparative (A is at least as probable as B) and interval-valued (the lower probability of A is P(A) and the upper probability of A is P(anti A)) probabilities. We then outline an approach first using comparative probability to model the resuls of binary elicitation of an expert's opinions concerning repository uncertainties and then employing interval-valued probability to represent comparative probability in a computationally convenient form. We further consider the issue of aggregating or amalgamating the responses of several experts, and we emphasize the need to preserve some measure of the disagreements among the experts. The resulting aggregated interval-valued representation of the responses concerning the uncertainties surrounding the performance of a nuclear waste repository design can then be used to numerically assess this performance in a manner parallel to that of utility theory. Utility theory is the basis for statistical decision theory. Our recommendations can only be tentative, and research is recommended to gain some working experience with the results of the proposed decision-making process in the repostory design context.

  2. Expert Opinions on Improving Femicide Data Collection across Europe: A Concept Mapping Study.

    PubMed

    Vives-Cases, Carmen; Goicolea, Isabel; Hernández, Alison; Sanz-Barbero, Belen; Gill, Aisha K; Baldry, Anna Costanza; Schröttle, Monika; Stöckl, Heidi; Stoeckl, Heidi

    2016-01-01

    Femicide, defined as the killings of females by males because they are females, is becoming recognized worldwide as an important ongoing manifestation of gender inequality. Despite its high prevalence or widespread prevalence, only a few countries have specific registries about this issue. This study aims to assemble expert opinion regarding the strategies which might feasibly be employed to promote, develop and implement an integrated and differentiated femicide data collection system in Europe at both the national and international levels. Concept mapping methodology was followed, involving 28 experts from 16 countries in generating strategies, sorting and rating them with respect to relevance and feasibility. The experts involved were all members of the EU-Cost-Action on femicide, which is a scientific network of experts on femicide and violence against women across Europe. As a result, a conceptual map emerged, consisting of 69 strategies organized in 10 clusters, which fit into two domains: "Political action" and "Technical steps". There was consensus among participants regarding the high relevance of strategies to institutionalize national databases and raise public awareness through different stakeholders, while strategies to promote media involvement were identified as the most feasible. Differences in perceived priorities according to the level of human development index of the experts' countries were also observed.

  3. Expert opinion on landslide susceptibility elicted by probabilistic inversion from scenario rankings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Katy; Dashwood, Claire; Lark, Murray

    2016-04-01

    For many natural hazards the opinion of experts, with experience in assessing susceptibility under different circumstances, is a valuable source of information on which to base risk assessments. This is particularly important where incomplete process understanding, and limited data, limit the scope to predict susceptibility by mechanistic or statistical modelling. The expert has a tacit model of a system, based on their understanding of processes and their field experience. This model may vary in quality, depending on the experience of the expert. There is considerable interest in how one may elicit expert understanding by a process which is transparent and robust, to provide a basis for decision support. One approach is to provide experts with a set of scenarios, and then to ask them to rank small overlapping subsets of these with respect to susceptibility. Methods of probabilistic inversion have been used to compute susceptibility scores for each scenario, implicit in the expert ranking. It is also possible to model these scores as functions of measurable properties of the scenarios. This approach has been used to assess susceptibility of animal populations to invasive diseases, to assess risk to vulnerable marine environments and to assess the risk in hypothetical novel technologies for food production. We will present the results of a study in which a group of geologists with varying degrees of expertise in assessing landslide hazards were asked to rank sets of hypothetical simplified scenarios with respect to land slide susceptibility. We examine the consistency of their rankings and the importance of different properties of the scenarios in the tacit susceptibility model that their rankings implied. Our results suggest that this is a promising approach to the problem of how experts can communicate their tacit model of uncertain systems to those who want to make use of their expertise.

  4. Assessing the Effectiveness of Local Management of Coral Reefs Using Expert Opinion and Spatial Bayesian Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Ban, Stephen S.

    2015-01-01

    Multiple stressors are an increasing concern in the management and conservation of ecosystems, and have been identified as a key gap in research. Coral reefs are one example of an ecosystem where management of local stressors may be a way of mitigating or delaying the effects of climate change. Predicting how multiple stressors interact, particularly in a spatially explicit fashion, is a difficult challenge. Here we use a combination of an expert-elicited Bayesian network (BN) and spatial environmental data to examine how hypothetical scenarios of climate change and local management would result in different outcomes for coral reefs on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Parameterizing our BN using the mean responses from our experts resulted in predictions of limited efficacy of local management in combating the effects of climate change. However, there was considerable variability in expert responses and uncertainty was high. Many reefs within the central GBR appear to be at risk of further decline based on the pessimistic opinions of our expert pool. Further parameterization of the model as more data and knowledge become available could improve predictive power. Our approach serves as a starting point for subsequent work that can fine-tune parameters and explore uncertainties in predictions of responses to management. PMID:26284372

  5. Expert Opinions on Improving Femicide Data Collection across Europe: A Concept Mapping Study

    PubMed Central

    Vives-Cases, Carmen; Goicolea, Isabel; Hernández, Alison; Sanz-Barbero, Belen; Gill, Aisha K.; Baldry, Anna Costanza; Schröttle, Monika; Stoeckl, Heidi

    2016-01-01

    Femicide, defined as the killings of females by males because they are females, is becoming recognized worldwide as an important ongoing manifestation of gender inequality. Despite its high prevalence or widespread prevalence, only a few countries have specific registries about this issue. This study aims to assemble expert opinion regarding the strategies which might feasibly be employed to promote, develop and implement an integrated and differentiated femicide data collection system in Europe at both the national and international levels. Concept mapping methodology was followed, involving 28 experts from 16 countries in generating strategies, sorting and rating them with respect to relevance and feasibility. The experts involved were all members of the EU-Cost-Action on femicide, which is a scientific network of experts on femicide and violence against women across Europe. As a result, a conceptual map emerged, consisting of 69 strategies organized in 10 clusters, which fit into two domains: “Political action” and “Technical steps”. There was consensus among participants regarding the high relevance of strategies to institutionalize national databases and raise public awareness through different stakeholders, while strategies to promote media involvement were identified as the most feasible. Differences in perceived priorities according to the level of human development index of the experts’ countries were also observed. PMID:26859885

  6. Assessing the Effectiveness of Local Management of Coral Reefs Using Expert Opinion and Spatial Bayesian Modeling.

    PubMed

    Ban, Stephen S; Pressey, Robert L; Graham, Nicholas A J

    2015-01-01

    Multiple stressors are an increasing concern in the management and conservation of ecosystems, and have been identified as a key gap in research. Coral reefs are one example of an ecosystem where management of local stressors may be a way of mitigating or delaying the effects of climate change. Predicting how multiple stressors interact, particularly in a spatially explicit fashion, is a difficult challenge. Here we use a combination of an expert-elicited Bayesian network (BN) and spatial environmental data to examine how hypothetical scenarios of climate change and local management would result in different outcomes for coral reefs on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Parameterizing our BN using the mean responses from our experts resulted in predictions of limited efficacy of local management in combating the effects of climate change. However, there was considerable variability in expert responses and uncertainty was high. Many reefs within the central GBR appear to be at risk of further decline based on the pessimistic opinions of our expert pool. Further parameterization of the model as more data and knowledge become available could improve predictive power. Our approach serves as a starting point for subsequent work that can fine-tune parameters and explore uncertainties in predictions of responses to management.

  7. Expert opinions of demographic rates of Argentine black and white tegus in South Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Fred A.

    2017-01-01

    We illustrate the utility of expert elicitation, explicit recognition of uncertainty, and the value of information for directing management and research efforts for invasive species, using tegu lizards (Salvator merianae) in southern Florida as a case study.  We posited a post-birth pulse, matrix model, which was parameterized using a 3-point process to elicit estimates of tegu demographic rates from herpetology experts.  We fit statistical distributions for each parameter and for each expert, then drew and pooled a large number of replicate samples from these to form a distribution for each demographic parameter.  Using these distributions, we generated a large sample of matrix models to infer how the tegu population might respond to control efforts.  We used the concepts of Pareto efficiency and stochastic dominance to conclude that targeting older age classes at relatively high rates appears to have the best chance of minimizing tegu abundance and control costs.  Expert opinion combined with an explicit consideration of uncertainty can be valuable for conducting an initial assessment of the effort needed to control the invader.  The value of information can be used to focus research in a way that not only helps increases the efficacy of control, but minimizes costs as well.

  8. A new modeling approach for quantifying expert opinion in the drug discovery process.

    PubMed

    Alonso, Ariel; Milanzi, Elasma; Molenberghs, Geert; Buyck, Christophe; Bijnens, Luc

    2015-04-30

    Expert opinion plays an important role when choosing clusters of chemical compounds for further investigation. Often, the process by which the clusters are assigned to the experts for evaluation, the so-called selection process, and the qualitative ratings given by the experts to the clusters (chosen/not chosen) need to be jointly modeled to avoid bias. This approach is referred to as the joint modeling approach. However, misspecifying the selection model may impact the estimation and inferences on parameters in the rating model, which are of most scientific interest. We propose to incorporate the selection process into the analysis by adding a new set of random effects to the rating model and, in this way, avoid the need to model it parametrically. This approach is referred to as the combined model approach. Through simulations, the performance of the combined and joint models was compared in terms of bias and confidence interval coverage. The estimates from the combined model were nearly unbiased, and the derived confidence intervals had coverage probability around 95% in all scenarios considered. In contrast, the estimates from the joint model were severely biased under some form of misspecification of the selection model, and fitting the model was often numerically challenging. The results show that the combined model may offer a safer alternative on which to base inferences when there are doubts about the validity of the selection model. Importantly, thanks to its greater numerical stability, the combined model may outperform the joint model even when the latter is correctly specified.

  9. Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors.

    PubMed

    Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M T E

    2015-08-18

    There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample's prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these.

  10. Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors

    PubMed Central

    Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M.T.E.

    2015-01-01

    There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample’s prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these. PMID:26295247

  11. Biology Teacher and Expert Opinions about Computer Assisted Biology Instruction Materials: A Software Entitled Nucleic Acids and Protein Synthesis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hasenekoglu, Ismet; Timucin, Melih

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study is to collect and evaluate opinions of CAI experts and biology teachers about a high school level Computer Assisted Biology Instruction Material presenting computer-made modelling and simulations. It is a case study. A material covering "Nucleic Acids and Protein Synthesis" topic was developed as the…

  12. Testing for Correlation between Two Journal Ranking Methods: A Comparison of Citation Rankings and Expert Opinion Rankings.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Russell, Robert Lowell, Jr.

    This study tests for correlation between two journal ranking methods--citation rankings and expert opinion surveys. Political science professors from four major universities were asked to rank a list of the 20 most highly cited political science journals. Citation data were taken from the "Social Sciences Citation Index Journal Citation…

  13. Application of a statistics-based expert system to provide automated second opinions prior to elective surgery.

    PubMed

    Whittington, R; Altschuler, M D

    1993-01-01

    Second opinions now are mandated by many funding agencies prior to elective surgery to provide an opportunity to evaluate the indications for surgery and allow an evaluation of the risks of surgery. One difficulty with second opinion programs is the observation that 80% to 95% of all surgical recommendations confirm the need for surgery and the number of patients requiring second opinions represents a significant health care cost. The interactive statistical package (ISP) is a statistics-based decision support system currently used to teach residents medical decision processes. Training an ISP is relatively simple because experts need only define the patient parameters and the allowed values of each parameter. Each expert then sets up a decision tree to represent his or her decision process. The system will then present a series of randomly generated cases to the expert and observe the expert's action. Through Bayesian statistics the system identifies the parameter values that significantly affect the expert's judgment and the direction that they exert on the decision. A decision support system used to evaluate patients with prostate cancer reproduces an expert's treatment selection with an accuracy of 94% on a log rank test when selecting among six treatment options including three different surgical procedures, two different radiation regimens, and palliative therapy. The entire system was trained and validated over 3 weeks, and the accuracy of the system is comparable to the consistency of the expert (90%). Because several experts can review the same patient material and make decisions independently, multiple systems can be created and validated, and operated in parallel.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  14. Expert Opinion on Laparoscopic Surgery for Colorectal Cancer Parallels Evidence from a Cumulative Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

    PubMed Central

    Martel, Guillaume; Crawford, Alyson; Barkun, Jeffrey S.; Boushey, Robin P.; Ramsay, Craig R.; Fergusson, Dean A.

    2012-01-01

    Background This study sought to synthesize survival outcomes from trials of laparoscopic and open colorectal cancer surgery, and to determine whether expert acceptance of this technology in the literature has parallel cumulative survival evidence. Study Design A systematic review of randomized trials was conducted. The primary outcome was survival, and meta-analysis of time-to-event data was conducted. Expert opinion in the literature (published reviews, guidelines, and textbook chapters) on the acceptability of laparoscopic colorectal cancer was graded using a 7-point scale. Pooled survival data were correlated in time with accumulating expert opinion scores. Results A total of 5,800 citations were screened. Of these, 39 publications pertaining to 23 individual trials were retained. As well, 414 reviews were included (28 guidelines, 30 textbook chapters, 20 systematic reviews, 336 narrative reviews). In total, 5,782 patients were randomized to laparoscopic (n = 3,031) and open (n = 2,751) colorectal surgery. Survival data were presented in 16 publications. Laparoscopic surgery was not inferior to open surgery in terms of overall survival (HR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.80, 1.09). Expert opinion in the literature pertaining to the oncologic acceptability of laparoscopic surgery for colon cancer correlated most closely with the publication of large RCTs in 2002–2004. Although increasingly accepted since 2006, laparoscopic surgery for rectal cancer remained controversial. Conclusions Laparoscopic surgery for colon cancer is non-inferior to open surgery in terms of overall survival, and has been so since 2004. The majority expert opinion in the literature has considered these two techniques to be equivalent since 2002–2004. Laparoscopic surgery for rectal cancer has been increasingly accepted since 2006, but remains controversial. Knowledge translation efforts in this field appear to have paralleled the accumulation of clinical trial evidence. PMID:22532846

  15. Expert Opinion on the Perceived Effectiveness and Importance of On-Farm Biosecurity Measures for Cattle and Swine Farms in Switzerland

    PubMed Central

    Kuster, Karin; Cousin, Marie-Eve; Jemmi, Thomas; Schüpbach-Regula, Gertraud; Magouras, Ioannis

    2015-01-01

    Biosecurity is crucial for safeguarding livestock from infectious diseases. Despite the plethora of biosecurity recommendations, published scientific evidence on the effectiveness of individual biosecurity measures is limited. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of Swiss experts about the effectiveness and importance of individual on-farm biosecurity measures for cattle and swine farms (31 and 30 measures, respectively). Using a modified Delphi method, 16 Swiss livestock disease specialists (8 for each species) were interviewed. The experts were asked to rank biosecurity measures that were written on cards, by allocating a score from 0 (lowest) to 5 (highest). Experts ranked biosecurity measures based on their importance related to Swiss legislation, feasibility, as well as the effort required for implementation and the benefit of each biosecurity measure. The experts also ranked biosecurity measures based on their effectiveness in preventing an infectious agent from entering and spreading on a farm, solely based on transmission characteristics of specific pathogens. The pathogens considered by cattle experts were those causing Bluetongue (BT), Bovine Viral Diarrhea (BVD), Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis (IBR). Swine experts expressed their opinion on the pathogens causing African Swine Fever (ASF), Enzootic Pneumonia (EP), Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), as well as FMD. For cattle farms, biosecurity measures that improve disease awareness of farmers were ranked as both most important and most effective. For swine farms, the most important and effective measures identified were those related to animal movements. Among all single measures evaluated, education of farmers was perceived by the experts to be the most important and effective for protecting both Swiss cattle and swine farms from disease. The findings of this study provide an important basis for recommendation to farmers and

  16. Expert Opinion on the Perceived Effectiveness and Importance of On-Farm Biosecurity Measures for Cattle and Swine Farms in Switzerland.

    PubMed

    Kuster, Karin; Cousin, Marie-Eve; Jemmi, Thomas; Schüpbach-Regula, Gertraud; Magouras, Ioannis

    2015-01-01

    Biosecurity is crucial for safeguarding livestock from infectious diseases. Despite the plethora of biosecurity recommendations, published scientific evidence on the effectiveness of individual biosecurity measures is limited. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of Swiss experts about the effectiveness and importance of individual on-farm biosecurity measures for cattle and swine farms (31 and 30 measures, respectively). Using a modified Delphi method, 16 Swiss livestock disease specialists (8 for each species) were interviewed. The experts were asked to rank biosecurity measures that were written on cards, by allocating a score from 0 (lowest) to 5 (highest). Experts ranked biosecurity measures based on their importance related to Swiss legislation, feasibility, as well as the effort required for implementation and the benefit of each biosecurity measure. The experts also ranked biosecurity measures based on their effectiveness in preventing an infectious agent from entering and spreading on a farm, solely based on transmission characteristics of specific pathogens. The pathogens considered by cattle experts were those causing Bluetongue (BT), Bovine Viral Diarrhea (BVD), Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis (IBR). Swine experts expressed their opinion on the pathogens causing African Swine Fever (ASF), Enzootic Pneumonia (EP), Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), as well as FMD. For cattle farms, biosecurity measures that improve disease awareness of farmers were ranked as both most important and most effective. For swine farms, the most important and effective measures identified were those related to animal movements. Among all single measures evaluated, education of farmers was perceived by the experts to be the most important and effective for protecting both Swiss cattle and swine farms from disease. The findings of this study provide an important basis for recommendation to farmers and

  17. Studies of Opinion Stability for Small Dynamic Networks with Opportunistic Agents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    There are numerous examples of societies with extremely stable mix of contrasting opinions. We argue that this stability is a result of an interplay between society network topology adjustment and opinion changing processes. To support this position we present a computer model of opinion formation based on some novel assumptions, designed to bring the model closer to social reality. In our model, the agents, in addition to changing their opinions due to influence of the rest of society and external propaganda, have the ability to modify their social network, forming links with agents sharing the same opinions and cutting the links with those they disagree with. To improve the model further we divide the agents into "fanatics" and "opportunists," depending on how easy it is to change their opinions. The simulations show significant differences compared to traditional models, where network links are static. In particular, for the dynamical model where inter-agent links are adjustable, the final network structure and opinion distribution is shown to resemble real world observations, such as social structures and persistence of minority groups even when most of the society is against them and the propaganda is strong.

  18. Syndrome Differentiation of Diabetes by the Traditional Chinese Medicine according to Evidence-Based Medicine and Expert Consensus Opinion

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Jing; Chen, Hongdong; Song, Jun; Wang, Jia; Zhao, Linhua; Tong, Xiaolin

    2014-01-01

    In Chinese medicine, diabetes belongs to the category of “Xiaoke disease (disease with symptoms of frequent drinking and urination)”; in the traditional sense, its pathogenesis is “Yin deficiency and dryness-heat.” However, over time, changes in the social environment and lifestyle have also changed the use of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) in diabetes. In this study, we performed diabetes syndrome differentiation using TCM according to evidence-based medicine and expert consensus opinion. PMID:25132859

  19. Intertidal zone management in the Western Indian Ocean: assessing current status and future possibilities using expert opinions.

    PubMed

    Nordlund, Lina Mtwana; de la Torre-Castro, Maricela; Erlandsson, Johan; Conand, Chantal; Muthiga, Nyawira; Jiddawi, Narriman; Gullström, Martin

    2014-12-01

    This expert opinion study examined the current status of the intertidal zone in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) and ranked and discussed future management approaches. Information was gathered from scientists, practitioners, and managers active in the WIO region through a questionnaire and a workshop. The experts stated that the productive intertidal environment is highly valuable for reasons such as recreation, erosion protection, and provision of edible invertebrates and fish. Several anthropogenic pressures were identified, including pollution, harbor activities, overexploitation, and climate change. The experts considered the WIO intertidal zone as generally understudied, undermanaged, and with poor or no monitoring. The most important management strategies according to the expert opinions are to develop and involve local people in integrated coastal zone management (ICZM), to increase knowledge on species-environment relationships, and to develop awareness campaigns and education programs. To improve coastal environmental management and conservation, we argue that the intertidal zone should be treated as one organizational management unit within the larger framework of ICZM.

  20. Is expert opinion reliable when estimating transition probabilities? The case of HCV-related cirrhosis in Egypt

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Data on HCV-related cirrhosis progression are scarce in developing countries in general, and in Egypt in particular. The objective of this study was to estimate the probability of death and transition between different health stages of HCV (compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma) for an Egyptian population of patients with HCV-related cirrhosis. Methods We used the “elicitation of expert opinions” method to obtain collective knowledge from a panel of 23 Egyptian experts (among whom 17 were hepatologists or gastroenterologists and 2 were infectiologists). The questionnaire was based on virtual medical cases and asked the experts to assess probability of death or probability of various cirrhosis complications. The design was a Delphi study: we attempted to obtain a consensus between experts via a series of questionnaires interspersed with group response feedback. Results We found substantial disparity between experts’ answers, and no consensus was reached at the end of the process. Moreover, we obtained high death probability and high risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. The annual transition probability to death was estimated at between 10.1% and 61.5% and the annual probability of occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma was estimated at between 16.8% and 58.9% (depending on age, gender, time spent in cirrhosis and cirrhosis severity). Conclusions Our results show that eliciting expert opinions is not suited for determining the natural history of diseases due to practitioners’ difficulties in evaluating quantities. Cognitive bias occurring during this type of study might explain our results. PMID:24635942

  1. Treatment of Liver Tumors with Lipiodol TACE: Technical Recommendations from Experts Opinion

    SciTech Connect

    Baere, Thierry de; Arai, Yasuaki; Lencioni, Riccardo; Geschwind, Jean-Francois; Rilling, William; Salem, Riad; Matsui, Osamu; Soulen, Michael C.

    2016-03-15

    Transarterial chemoembolization with Lipiodol (Lipiodol TACE), also called conventional TACE, was developed in the early 1980s and widely adopted worldwide after randomized control trials and meta-analysis demonstrated superiority of Lipiodol TACE to best supportive care. Presently, there is no level one evidence that other TACE techniques are superior to Lipiodol TACE for intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which includes patients with preserved liver function and nonsurgical large or multinodular HCC without distant metastases. In addition, TACE is part of the treatment for progressive or symptomatic liver metastases from gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. When injected into the hepatic artery, Lipiodol has the unique property of selective uptake and retention in hyperarterialyzed liver tumors. Lipiodol/drug emulsion followed by particle embolization has been demonstrated to improve the pharmacokinetic of the drug and tumor response. Radio opacity of Lipiodol helps to monitor treatment delivery, with retention of Lipiodol serving as an imaging biomarker for tumor response. For 30 years, Lipiodol TACE has been inconsistently referenced in many publications with various levels of details for the method of preparation and administration, with reported progressive outcomes following improvements in the technique and the devices used to deliver the treatment and better patient selection. Consequently, there is no consensus on the standard method of TACE regarding the use of anticancer agents, embolic material, technical details, and the treatment schedule. In order to develop an internationally validated technical recommendation to standardize the Lipiodol TACE procedure, a worldwide panel of experts participated in a consensus meeting held on May 10, 2014.

  2. Communicating Chemical Risks for Social Learning: Findings from an Expert Opinion Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lyytimaki, Jari; Assmuth, Timo; Hilden, Mikael

    2009-01-01

    Environmental and health risks caused by chemical substances have been intensively debated in various arenas of science and policy, and in news media. The impacts of risk debates on the public have been widely studied, while less attention has been paid to expert views. We present results from a cross-national survey charting expert views on the…

  3. Effects of Noise Suppression on Intelligibility: Experts' Opinions and Naive Normal-Hearing Listeners' Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilkhuysen, Gaston L. M.; Gaubitch, Nikolay; Huckvale, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: In this study, the authors investigated how well experts can adjust the settings of a commercial noise-reduction system to optimize the intelligibility for naive normal-hearing listeners. Method: In Experiment 1, 5 experts adjusted parameters for a noise-reduction system while aiming to optimize intelligibility. The stimuli consisted of…

  4. Numerical Algorithms for the Analysis of Expert Opinions Elicited in Text Format

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-04-01

    applied to subject matter expert text data elicited through carefully constructed decision support workshops. In the main these workshops address...various stake-holder groups. These workshops are carefully designed to address specific defence questions and to elicit, record and analyse expert...each of these topics. • Differential Analysis: Differential analysis concerns identifying and quantifying the differences between subsets of text, where

  5. Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

    1976-01-01

    A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

  6. Quantification of uncertainty sources in a 2D hydraulic model for the river Rhine using expert opinions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warmink, J. J.; van der Klis, H.; Booij, M. J.; Hulscher, S. J. M. H.

    2009-04-01

    Hydrodynamic river models are applied to design and evaluate measures for purposes such as safety against flooding. These numerical models are all based on a deterministic approach. However, the modeling of river processes involves numerous uncertainties, resulting in uncertain model results. Uncertainty is defined as any deviation from the unachievable ideal of complete determinism. Uncertainty in models comprises (1) the difference between a model outcome and a measurement and (2) the possible variation around the computed value or measurements. Knowledge of the type and magnitude of these uncertainties is crucial for a meaningful interpretation of the model results. The aim of this study is to identify the sources of uncertainty that induce the largest uncertainties in the model outcomes and quantify this uncertainty using expert opinions. In this study, the two-dimensional WAQUA model for the Dutch river Rhine is used as an example for the quantification of uncertainty sources. Sixteen experts have been selected based on a Pedigree matrix with 4 criteria: 1) experience with code development, 2) experience with WAQUA projects, 3) experience in years, and 4) number and type of publications about WAQUA. The 16 experts with the highest Pedigree scores have been invited for an interview. Interviews are held with 11 of these experts. During the interviews, the experts are asked to list the most important uncertainty sources for the following two situations: (1) the computation of design water levels (DWL), based on a design discharge wave and (2) the computation of the effect of a measure in the river bed, which is done using a constant discharge as input. To compare the different experts, the experts are asked to quantify the uncertainty sources on the same level of detail. Finally, the experts are asked to quantify the effect of the uncertainty sources on the computed water levels. The experts stated that the sources of uncertainty are different for the computation

  7. The Peace Mediator effect: Heterogeneous agents can foster consensus in continuous opinion models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vilone, Daniele; Carletti, Timoteo; Bagnoli, Franco; Guazzini, Andrea

    2016-11-01

    Statistical mechanics has proven to be able to capture the fundamental rules underlying phenomena of social aggregation and opinion dynamics, well studied in disciplines like sociology and psychology. This approach is based on the underlying paradigm that the interesting dynamics of multi-agent systems emerge from the correct definition of few parameters governing the evolution of each individual. In this context, we propose a particular model of opinion dynamics based on the psychological construct named "cognitive dissonance". Our system is made of interacting individuals, the agents, each bearing only two dynamical variables (respectively "opinion" and "affinity") self-consistently adjusted during time evolution. We also define two special classes of interacting entities, both acting for a peace mediation process but via different course of action: "diplomats" and "auctoritates". The behavior of the system with and without peace mediators (PMs) is investigated and discussed with reference to corresponding psychological and social implications.

  8. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

    SciTech Connect

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The Columbia River basalts underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett basalt flow interior. The Cohassett basalt flow is the prime candidate horizon for repository studies. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. The results indicate significant differences of expert opinion for cumulative probabilities of less than 10% and greater than 90%, but relatively close agreement in the middle ranges of values. The principal causes of the diversity of opinion are believed to be the lack of site-specific data and the absence of a single, widely accepted, conceptual or theoretical basis for analyzing these variables.

  9. Exploring expert opinion on the practicality and effectiveness of biosecurity measures on dairy farms in the United Kingdom using choice modeling.

    PubMed

    Shortall, Orla; Green, Martin; Brennan, Marnie; Wapenaar, Wendela; Kaler, Jasmeet

    2017-03-01

    Biosecurity, defined as a series of measures aiming to stop disease-causing agents entering or leaving an area where farm animals are present, is very important for the continuing economic viability of the United Kingdom dairy sector, and for animal welfare. This study gathered expert opinion from farmers, veterinarians, consultants, academics, and government and industry representatives on the practicality and effectiveness of different biosecurity measures on dairy farms. The study used best-worst scaling, a technique that allows for greater discrimination between choices and avoids the variability in interpretation associated with other methods, such as Likert scales and ranking methods. Keeping a closed herd was rated as the most effective measure overall, and maintaining regular contact with the veterinarian was the most practical measure. Measures relating to knowledge, planning, and veterinary involvement; buying-in practices; and quarantine and treatment scored highly for effectiveness overall. Measures relating to visitors, equipment, pest control, and hygiene scored much lower for effectiveness. Overall, measures relating to direct animal-to-animal contact scored much higher for effectiveness than measures relating to indirect disease transmission. Some of the most effective measures were also rated as the least practical, such as keeping a closed herd and avoiding nose-to-nose contact between contiguous animals, suggesting that real barriers exist for farmers when implementing biosecurity measures on dairy farms. We observed heterogeneity in expert opinion on biosecurity measures; for example, veterinarians rated the effectiveness of consulting the veterinarian on biosecurity significantly more highly than dairy farmers, suggesting a greater need for veterinarians to promote their services on-farm. Still, both groups rated it as a practical measure, suggesting that the farmer-veterinarian relationship holds some advantages for the promotion of

  10. Experts' Opinions on National Math Standards for Students with Disabilities. Technical Report 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shriner, James G.; And Others

    Eleven experts in mathematics education, special education, and assessment completed an open-ended survey on current math instruction in relation to the "Curriculum and Evaluation Standards" of the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics and the perceived appropriateness and feasibility of the standards for students with…

  11. [Role of experts in forensic medicine in opinioning for courts and insurance agencies].

    PubMed

    Berent, Jarosław

    2005-01-01

    Forensic medicine belongs to a group of medical specialties which are listed as basic specialties according to the Ministry of Health. As indicated already by the specialist program, the aim of such studies involves mastering of abilities which permit the medical doctor to provide competent opinions for courts and other organs in the administration of justice, consistent with the current medical knowledge, forensic experience and requirements of the law. Therefore, obtaining specialist qualifications in forensic medicine the doctor is expected to be prepared for forensic certification in penal, civil and insurance matters on the basis of a medical examination and/or court files. It should be explained that forensic medicine practiced in Poland and in some European countries represents a much broader specialty than forensic pathology practiced in the USA and some English-speaking countries. In the latter countries the specialty represents a part of broadly understood pathology. The situation of a forensic physician in organization of the execution of justice in the USA, his/ her competencies and range of activities are completely distinct to those characterizing a forensic physician in Poland. In its range accepted in Poland, forensic medicine has a broader scope. It deals not only with the narrow range of penal proceedings but also pertains the entire problems of certification for the courts and other organs which deal with implementation of justice, as well as for other institutions such as various insurance companies. One of the reasons for separation of forensic medicine from other specialties was the fact that appropriate forensic opinioning requires more than encompassing respective medical knowledge. Also needed is the ability to understand intentions and aims of justice execution and the capacity to formulate opinions in such a range and in such a way that it will be perceived by the addressee in an unbiased form.

  12. A DELPHI STUDY OF RISK FACTORS FOR ACHILLES TENDINOPATHY- OPINIONS OF WORLD TENDON EXPERTS

    PubMed Central

    Watson, Paul J.; Barry, Simon

    2016-01-01

    Background and Purpose Achilles tendinopathy can be a debilitating chronic condition for both active and inactive individuals. The identification of risk facors is important both in preventing but also treating tendinopathy, many factors have been proposed but there is a lack of primary epidemiological data. The purpose of this study was to develop a statement of expert consensus on risk factors for Achilles tendinopathy in active and sedentary patient populations to inform a primary epidemiological study. Study design Delphi study Methods and Measures An online Delphi study was completed inviting participation from world tendon experts. The consensus was developed using three rounds of the Delphi technique. The first round developed a complete list of potential risk factors, the second round refined this list but also separated the factors into two population groups – active/athletic and inactive/sedentary. The third round ranked this list in order of perceived importance. Results Forty-four experts were invited to participate, 16 participated in the first round (response rate 40%) and two dropped out in the second round (resulting in a response rate of 35%). A total of 27 intrinsic and eight extrinsic risk factors were identified during round one. During round two only 12 intrinsic and five extrinsic risk factors were identified as important in active/athletic tendinopathy while 14 intrinsic and three extrinsic factors were identified as important for inactive/sedentary tendinopathy. Conclusions Risk factors for Achilles tendinopathy were identified based on expert consensus, and these factors provide a basis for primary epidemiological studies. Plantarflexor strength was identified as the primary modifiable factor in the active/athletic group while systemic factors were identified as important in the inactive/sedentary group, many of the potential factors suggested for either group were non-modifiable. Non-modifiable factors include: previous tendinopathy

  13. [Extent to which a claimant's loss-mitigation and cooperation obligations towards the insurer are enforceable--requirements for an expert medical opinion].

    PubMed

    Stadtland, C; Seidelmann, S; Wandl, U

    2007-03-01

    A policyholder claiming an annuity benefit on the grounds that, he is no longer able to pursue his occupation must meet certain obligations vis-à-vis the insurer, e.g. duty to mitigate the loss, duty to cooperate with the insurer. These obligations are often curtailed by the claimants' rights. Physicians and providers of expert medical opinions frequently do not share this opinion. Where medical and legal considerations intermingle and, potentially, conflict, there is great uncertainty as to whether, and to what extent, an insurer may require a claimant to undergo medical treatment. Before deciding on whether or not to grant an annuity, the insurer generally calls in medical experts to assess the policyholder's actual degree of disability and offer an opinion on whether and, if so, by what medical means that disability might be mitigated or remedied. Expert medical opinions are often decisive in such cases. The present article discusses the extent to which a claimant's loss-mitigation and cooperation obligations towards the insurer are enforceable; in this context, a number of court decisions are quoted. In addition, the authors define the requirements that an expert medical opinion must meet.

  14. The utilization of solid organs for transplantation in the setting of infection with multidrug-resistant organisms: an expert opinion.

    PubMed

    Bishara, Jihad; Goldberg, Elad; Lev, Shaul; Singer, Pierre; Ashkenazi, Tamar; Cohen, Jonathan

    2012-01-01

    Organ transplantation remains the optimal treatment for many patients suffering from end-stage organ disease. Increasing numbers of patients admitted to intensive care units, among them potential heart-beating, brain-dead organ donors, are exposed to infections with multidrug-resistant organisms, in particular carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CR-KP). An extensive literature search failed to reveal any information regarding the eligibility for transplantation of organs from such donors. For this reason, in 2009, the Israel Transplant Center, together with the Israeli Society for Infectious Diseases, established a working group with the intention of developing a national-specific approach to the use of these organs. In this viewpoint article, we present an algorithm based on expert opinion and our clinical experience with a donor who was found to be an asymptomatic carrier of CR-KP.

  15. Collective opinion paper on findings of the 2010 convocation of experts on laboratory quality.

    PubMed

    Cooper, Greg; DeJonge, Niels; Ehrmeyer, Sharon; Yundt-Pacheco, John; Jansen, Rob; Ricós, Carmen; Plebani, Mario

    2011-05-01

    As a part of a series of yearly meeting, in May 2010 over 40 medical laboratory opinion leaders, pathologists, clinical biochemists and physicians from Europe, Israel and South Africa gathered together in Bardolino, Italy to discuss issues and current challenges for laboratory medicine, including a) the use of biological variation 10 years after the Stockholm Conference; b) achieving quality in point-of-care testing; c) assessing risk and controlling sources of error in the laboratory; d) determining the appropriate frequency of quality control; and f) putting laboratory medicine at the core of patient care. The intended goal of the convocation was to give laboratory professionals from different countries and backgrounds the opportunity to share ideas, concerns and experiences in previously mentioned areas of interest. This paper provide a synopsis of the reports from each working group.

  16. Practical use of azacitidine in higher-risk myelodysplastic syndromes: an expert panel opinion.

    PubMed

    Fenaux, Pierre; Bowen, David; Gattermann, Norbert; Hellström-Lindberg, Eva; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Sanz, Guillermo; Santini, Valeria

    2010-11-01

    Azacitidine is currently the only drug to have shown a significant survival benefit over conventional care regimens in patients with International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) intermediate-2 (Int-2) and high-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), establishing it as an important new treatment for these individuals. However, several aspects of the practical use of azacitidine remain uncertain. This manuscript outlines recommendations discussed by a panel of experts, providing a practical guide for physicians to ensure optimal management of Int-2 and high-risk patients receiving azacitidine.

  17. The role and choice criteria of antihistamines in allergy management – expert opinion

    PubMed Central

    Jurkiewicz, Dariusz; Czarnecka-Operacz, Magdalena M.; Pawliczak, Rafał; Woroń, Jarosław; Moniuszko, Marcin; Emeryk, Andrzej

    2016-01-01

    Allergic diseases are the most common chronic conditions lasting throughout the patient’s life. They not only cause significant deterioration in the quality of life of patients but also lead to significant absenteeism and reduced productivity, resulting in very high costs for society. Effective and safe treatment of allergic diseases is therefore one of the main challenges for public health and should be carried out by all the specialists in family medicine, internists and paediatricians in collaboration with allergists, otorhinolaryngologists and dermatologists. Antihistamines are most commonly used in the treatment of allergies. Several dozen drugs are available on the pharmaceutical market, and their generic forms are advertised widely as very effective drugs for the treatment of allergic diseases. What is the truth? What are the data from clinical trials and observational studies? Are all drugs equally effective and safe for the patient? According to a panel of experts representing various fields of medicine, inappropriate treatment of allergies can be very risky for patients, and seemingly equally acting medications may differ greatly. Therefore, a panel of experts gathered the latest data from the entire scientific literature and analysed the latest standards and recommendations prepared by scientific societies. This paper provides a summary of these studies and highlights the importance for the patient of the proper choice of drug to treat his allergies. PMID:28035215

  18. Von Willebrand Disease and Pregnancy: A Review of Evidence and Expert Opinion.

    PubMed

    Reynen, Emily; James, Paula

    2016-10-01

    von Willebrand disease (VWD) is a common, inherited bleeding disorder. There are three main types of VWD, which result in a quantitative or qualitative deficiency in von Willebrand factor (VWF) and in severe cases, also Factor VIII (FVIII). The severity of bleeding depends on the underlying pathophysiology. Type 1 VWD is usually mild, while types 2 or 3 VWD can be associated with moderate or significant bleeding. Managing pregnant women with VWD requires a multidisciplinary approach. Such patients are at increased risk of postpartum hemorrhage. Whether women with VWD are at increased risk of spontaneous abortion remains unclear. Because of increased risk of bleeding, there are special considerations for delivery and obstetrical analgesia. There is a lack of high-quality evidence supporting monitoring and treatment of VWD in pregnancy. Most experts recommend that FVIII and VWF levels be monitored prior to delivery and treatment initiated when levels remain below 0.50 IU/mL. Some experts consider desmopressin (DDAVP) to be the preferred initial treatment in type 1 and most type 2 VWD. DDAVP is relatively contraindicated in type 2B disease. Plasma-derived FVIII and VWF replacements are the treatment of choice in type 2B and 3 VWD and in type 1 or 2 VWD when patients do not respond to DDAVP.

  19. Accepted standards on how to give a Medical Research Presentation: a systematic review of expert opinion papers.

    PubMed

    Blome, Christine; Sondermann, Hanno; Augustin, Matthias

    2017-01-01

    Background: This systematic review aimed to extract recommendations from expert opinion articles on how to give a medical research presentation on a scientific conference and to determine whether the experts agree on what makes an effective or poor presentation. Methods: Presentation-related terms were searched within article titles listed in PubMed, restricting the search to English-language articles published from January 1975 to July 2015. Recommendations were extracted from the articles, grouped by content, and analyzed for frequency. Ninety-one articles were included. Among 679 different recommendations, 29 were given in more than 20% of articles each. The five most frequent recommendations were to keep slides simple, adjust the talk to the audience, rehearse, not read the talk from slides or a manuscript, and make eye contact. Results: No article gave advice that was the complete opposite of the 29 most frequent recommendations with the exception of whether a light or dark background should be used for slides. Conclusions: Researchers should comply with these widely accepted standards to be perceived as effective presenters.

  20. Evaluation of food provision and nutrition support at the London 2012 Olympic Games: the opinion of sports nutrition experts.

    PubMed

    Pelly, Fiona; Meyer, Nanna L; Pearce, Jeni; Burkhart, Sarah J; Burke, Louise M

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the food provision and nutrition support at the London 2012 Olympic (OG) and Paralympic Games (PG) from the perspective of sports nutrition experts attending the event. Participants (n = 15) were asked to complete an online survey and rate on a Likert scale menu qualities, food safety, sustainability practices, nutrition labeling, and provision for cultural needs, dietary regimes and specific situations. Open-ended responses were incorporated to explore expert opinion and areas for improvement. Participants rated their overall experience of the food provision as 7.6 out of 10 (range 5 to 10), with the majority (n = 11) rating it greater than 7. The variety, accessibility, presentation, temperature, and freshness of menu items rated as average to good. A below average rating was received for recovery food and beverages, provision of food for traveling to other venues, taking suitable snacks out of the dining hall and provision of food at other venues. However, the variety and accessibility of choices for Ramadan, and provision of post-competition food were rated highly. A number of comments were received about the lack of gluten free and lower energy/fat items. The inclusion of allergens on nutrition labeling was considered more important than nutrient content. While dietetic review of the menu in advance of the OG and PG is clearly a valuable process that has resulted in improvements in the food supply, there are still areas that need to be addressed that are currently not implemented during the event.

  1. Accepted standards on how to give a Medical Research Presentation: a systematic review of expert opinion papers

    PubMed Central

    Blome, Christine; Sondermann, Hanno; Augustin, Matthias

    2017-01-01

    Background: This systematic review aimed to extract recommendations from expert opinion articles on how to give a medical research presentation on a scientific conference and to determine whether the experts agree on what makes an effective or poor presentation. Methods: Presentation-related terms were searched within article titles listed in PubMed, restricting the search to English-language articles published from January 1975 to July 2015. Recommendations were extracted from the articles, grouped by content, and analyzed for frequency. Ninety-one articles were included. Among 679 different recommendations, 29 were given in more than 20% of articles each. The five most frequent recommendations were to keep slides simple, adjust the talk to the audience, rehearse, not read the talk from slides or a manuscript, and make eye contact. Results: No article gave advice that was the complete opposite of the 29 most frequent recommendations with the exception of whether a light or dark background should be used for slides. Conclusions: Researchers should comply with these widely accepted standards to be perceived as effective presenters. PMID:28293678

  2. An Expert Opinion on Advanced Insulin Pump Use in Youth with Type 1 Diabetes.

    PubMed

    Bode, Bruce W; Kaufman, Francine R; Vint, Nan

    2017-03-01

    Among children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes mellitus, the use of insulin pump therapy has increased since its introduction in the early 1980s. Optimal management of type 1 diabetes mellitus depends on sufficient understanding by patients, their families, and healthcare providers on how to use pump technology. The goal for the use of insulin pump therapy should be to advance proficiency over time from the basics taught at the initiation of pump therapy to utilizing advanced settings to obtain optimal glycemic control. However, this goal is often not met, and appropriate understanding of the full features of pump technology can be lacking. The objective of this review is to provide an expert perspective on the advanced features and use of insulin pump therapy, including practical guidelines for the successful use of insulin pump technology, and other considerations specific to patients and healthcare providers.

  3. Recurrent issues in efforts to prevent homicidal youth violence in schools: expert opinions.

    PubMed

    Dill, Karen E; Redding, Richard E; Smith, Peter K; Surette, Ray; Cornell, Dewey G

    2011-01-01

    Developmental research on social influences on adolescents can guide practices aimed to prevent homicidal youth violence. School shootings have repeatedly raised questions about the contributory role of bullying and entertainment violence, how news media publicity might produce copycat crimes, and whether stiffer criminal sanctions might have a deterrent effect. This article presents the thoughts and recommendations of a group of experts on these topics summarizing the current knowledge base. In brief, bullying reduction programs may be a useful early prevention effort. Television and video games with violent themes can encourage aggressive behavior, but these media can be used to teach more prosocial behavior as well. The potential copycat effects of highly publicized crimes might be diminished with more restrained reporting, although more research is needed. Finally, there is substantial evidence that increased criminal sanctions for youthful offenders have not had a deterrent effect.

  4. Expert Opinion to Identify High-Risk Entry Routes of Canine Rabies into Papua New Guinea.

    PubMed

    Brookes, V J; Ward, M P

    2017-03-01

    The proximity of Papua New Guinea (PNG) to canine rabies-endemic countries in South-East Asia presents a risk of incursion of this disease into PNG and the rest of the Oceanic region. The objective of this study was to identify the highest risk routes for entry of dogs - associated with movement of people - into PNG from canine rabies-endemic countries. A structured, in-country expert-elicitation workshop was used, and 20 entry routes were identified. The highest risk routes were three land routes from Papua, Indonesia (hunters, traditional border crossers and unregulated, unchecked 'shopper-crossers') and two sea routes (fishing and logging). These results will be used to direct more detailed risk assessments to develop surveillance strategies and incursion response plans.

  5. Management of cardiovascular risk in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: evidence and expert opinion

    PubMed Central

    van den Oever, Inge A.M.; van Sijl, Alper M.

    2013-01-01

    The risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality is increased in rheumatoid arthritis. The classical cardiovascular risk factors, including smoking, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, insulin resistance and diabetes mellitus, obesity and physical inactivity do not appear to explain the excess cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis, although they do contribute, albeit in a different way or to a lesser extent, to rheumatoid arthritis in comparison with the general population. A very important link between rheumatoid arthritis and cardiovascular disease is inflammation as it plays a key role in all stages of atherosclerosis: from endothelial dysfunction to plaque rupture and thrombosis. It also has an influence on and accentuates some traditional cardiovascular risk factors, such as dyslipidaemia, obesity and insulin resistance. To date, the exact pathophysiologic mechanism by which this relation between cardiovascular disease and rheumatoid arthritis can be explained is not completely clear. Cardiovascular risk management in rheumatoid arthritis is mandatory. Unfortunately, the way this should be done remains a point of discussion. In this review issues regarding cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis and its management will be addressed, according to evidence presented in the latest studies and our own experience-based opinion. PMID:23904862

  6. Quantitative Agent Based Model of Opinion Dynamics: Polish Elections of 2015

    PubMed Central

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    2016-01-01

    We present results of an abstract, agent based model of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) approach, applied to a strongly polarized society, corresponding to the Polish political scene between 2005 and 2015. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of two subcommunities of comparable size (supporting the corresponding opinions)—which corresponds to the bipartisan split found in Poland. Spurred by the recent breakdown of this political duopoly, which occurred in 2015, we present a model extension that describes both the long term coexistence of the two opposing opinions and a rapid, transitory change due to the appearance of a third party alternative. We provide quantitative comparison of the model with the results of polls and elections in Poland, testing the assumptions related to the modeled processes and the parameters used in the simulations. It is shown, that when the propaganda messages of the two incumbent parties differ in emotional tone, the political status quo may be unstable. The asymmetry of the emotions within the support bases of the two parties allows one of them to be ‘invaded’ by a newcomer third party very quickly, while the second remains immune to such invasion. PMID:27171226

  7. Web-based collection of expert opinion on routine scalp EEG: software development and interrater reliability.

    PubMed

    Halford, Jonathan J; Pressly, William B; Benbadis, Selim R; Tatum, William O; Turner, Robert P; Arain, Amir; Pritchard, Paul B; Edwards, Jonathan C; Dean, Brian C

    2011-04-01

    Computerized detection of epileptiform transients (ETs), characterized by interictal spikes and sharp waves in the EEG, has been a research goal for the last 40 years. A reliable method for detecting ETs would assist physicians in interpretation and improve efficiency in reviewing long-term EEG recordings. Computer algorithms developed thus far for detecting ETs are not as reliable as human experts, primarily due to the large number of false-positive detections. Comparing the performance of different algorithms is difficult because each study uses individual EEG test datasets. In this article, we present EEGnet, a distributed web-based platform for the acquisition and analysis of large-scale training datasets for comparison of different EEG ET detection algorithms. This software allows EEG scorers to log in through the web, mark EEG segments of interest, and categorize segments of interest using a conventional clinical EEG user interface. This software platform was used by seven board-certified academic epileptologists to score 40 short 30-second EEG segments from 40 patients, half containing ETs and half containing artifacts and normal variants. The software performance was adequate. Interrater reliability for marking the location of paroxysmal activity was low. Interrater reliability of marking artifacts and ETs was high and moderate, respectively.

  8. Iranian Expert Opinion about Necessary Criteria for Hospitals Management Performance Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Dadgar, Elham; Janati, Ali; Tabrizi, Jafar Sadegh; Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mohammad; Barati, Omid

    2012-01-01

    Background: Managers in the hospital should have enough managerial skill to be coordinated with the complex environment. Defining a competency framework assessment for hospital man-agement will help to establish core competencies for hospital managers. The aim of this study was to develop concrete and suitable performance assessment criteria using expert's view. Methods: In this qualitative study in total, 20 professionals participated in the interview and Fo¬cus Group Discussions (FGD). Two of informants were interviewed and 18 professionals par¬ticipants in three focus group discussions. Discussions and interviews were well planned, the FGD environments were suitable and after interviews completion the notes were checked with participant for completeness. Thematic analysis method was used for the analysis of qualitative data. Results: Findings from 3 FGDs and 2 semi structured interviews done with 20 professionals were categorized accordance to themes. The findings were classified in 7 major and 41 sub themes. The major themes include competency related to planning, organization and staff per-formance management, leadership, information management, and clinical governance and per-formance indicators. Conclusion: All participants had hospital administration experience; so their explanation impor¬tant in identifying the criteria and developing hospital managers’ performance assessment tool. In addition to professional perspectives and studies done in other countries, in order to design this kind of tools, it is necessary to adopt the obtained findings to the local hospital conditions. PMID:24688938

  9. Nurses' expert opinions of workplace interventions for a healthy working environment: a Delphi survey.

    PubMed

    Doran, Diane; Clarke, Sean; Hayes, Laureen; Nincic, Vera

    2014-09-01

    Much has been written about interventions to improve the nursing work environment, yet little is known about their effectiveness. A Delphi survey of nurse experts was conducted to explore perceptions about workplace interventions in terms of feasibility and likelihood of positive impact on nurse outcomes such as job satisfaction and nurse retention. The interventions that received the highest ratings for likelihood of positive impact included: bedside handover to improve communication at shift report and promote patient-centred care; training program for nurses in dealing with violent or aggressive behaviour; development of charge nurse leadership team; training program focused on creating peer-supportive atmospheres and group cohesion; and schedule that recognizes work balance and family demands. The overall findings are consistent with the literature that highlights the importance of communication and teamwork, nurse health and safety, staffing and scheduling practices, professional development and leadership and mentorship. Nursing researchers and decision-makers should work in collaboration to implement and evaluate interventions for promoting practice environments characterized by effective communication and teamwork, professional growth and adequate support for the health and well-being of nurses.

  10. Measuring psoriatic disease in clinical practice. An expert opinion position paper.

    PubMed

    Lubrano, Ennio; Cantini, Fabrizio; Costanzo, Antonio; Girolomoni, Giampiero; Prignano, Francesca; Olivieri, Ignazio; Scarpa, Raffaele; Spadaro, Antonio; Atzeni, Fabiola; Narcisi, Alessandra; Ricceri, Federica; Sarzi-Puttini, Piercarlo

    2015-10-01

    Psoriasis is a common, immune-mediated chronic inflammatory disease with a primary involvement of skin and joints, affecting approximately 2% of the population worldwide. Up to one third of patients with psoriasis are diagnosed with psoriatic arthritis (PsA). Psoriasis and PsA are heterogeneous diseases whose severity depends on a number of clinical factors, such as areas affected and pattern of involvement, and are associated with a range of comorbid diseases and risk factors, including obesity, metabolic syndrome, cardiovascular disease and liver disease. Thus measuring the severity of psoriatic disease needs to take into account the multidimensional aspects of the disease. Subjective measures including the impairment in quality of life or in daily living activities as well as the presence of cardio-metabolic comorbidities, are important for the outcome and add further levels of complexity that, to a certain extent, need to be assessed. Because of the wide range of comorbid conditions associated with psoriasis, comprehensive screening and treatment must be implemented for a most effective managing of psoriasis patients. A joint dermatologist-rheumatologist roundtable discussion was convened to share evidence on the real-life use of methods for measuring psoriasis severity comprehensively. Our objective was to provide an expert position on which clinical variables are to be taken into account when considering patients affected by psoriasis and/or PsA globally and on the assessment tools more suitable for measuring disease activity and/or severity in clinical practice.

  11. MERS-CoV at the Animal-Human Interface: Inputs on Exposure Pathways from an Expert-Opinion Elicitation.

    PubMed

    Funk, Anna L; Goutard, Flavie Luce; Miguel, Eve; Bourgarel, Mathieu; Chevalier, Veronique; Faye, Bernard; Peiris, J S Malik; Van Kerkhove, Maria D; Roger, Francois Louis

    2016-01-01

    Nearly 4 years after the first report of the emergence of Middle-East respiratory syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and nearly 1800 human cases later, the ecology of MERS-CoV, its epidemiology, and more than risk factors of MERS-CoV transmission between camels are poorly understood. Knowledge about the pathways and mechanisms of transmission from animals to humans is limited; as of yet, transmission risks have not been quantified. Moreover the divergent sanitary situations and exposures to animals among populations in the Arabian Peninsula, where human primary cases appear to dominate, vs. other regions in the Middle East and Africa, with no reported human clinical cases and where the virus has been detected only in dromedaries, represents huge scientific and health challenges. Here, we have used expert-opinion elicitation in order to obtain ideas on relative importance of MERS-CoV risk factors and estimates of transmission risks from various types of contact between humans and dromedaries. Fourteen experts with diverse and extensive experience in MERS-CoV relevant fields were enrolled and completed an online questionnaire that examined pathways based on several scenarios, e.g., camels-camels, camels-human, bats/other species to camels/humans, and the role of diverse biological substances (milk, urine, etc.) and potential fomites. Experts believed that dromedary camels play the largest role in MERS-CoV infection of other dromedaries; however, they also indicated a significant influence of the season (i.e. calving or weaning periods) on transmission risk. All experts thought that MERS-CoV-infected dromedaries and asymptomatic humans play the most important role in infection of humans, with bats and other species presenting a possible, but yet undefined, risk. Direct and indirect contact of humans with dromedary camels were identified as the most risky types of contact, when compared to consumption of various camel products, with estimated "most likely" incidence

  12. MERS-CoV at the Animal–Human Interface: Inputs on Exposure Pathways from an Expert-Opinion Elicitation

    PubMed Central

    Funk, Anna L.; Goutard, Flavie Luce; Miguel, Eve; Bourgarel, Mathieu; Chevalier, Veronique; Faye, Bernard; Peiris, J. S. Malik; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Roger, Francois Louis

    2016-01-01

    Nearly 4 years after the first report of the emergence of Middle-East respiratory syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and nearly 1800 human cases later, the ecology of MERS-CoV, its epidemiology, and more than risk factors of MERS-CoV transmission between camels are poorly understood. Knowledge about the pathways and mechanisms of transmission from animals to humans is limited; as of yet, transmission risks have not been quantified. Moreover the divergent sanitary situations and exposures to animals among populations in the Arabian Peninsula, where human primary cases appear to dominate, vs. other regions in the Middle East and Africa, with no reported human clinical cases and where the virus has been detected only in dromedaries, represents huge scientific and health challenges. Here, we have used expert-opinion elicitation in order to obtain ideas on relative importance of MERS-CoV risk factors and estimates of transmission risks from various types of contact between humans and dromedaries. Fourteen experts with diverse and extensive experience in MERS-CoV relevant fields were enrolled and completed an online questionnaire that examined pathways based on several scenarios, e.g., camels–camels, camels–human, bats/other species to camels/humans, and the role of diverse biological substances (milk, urine, etc.) and potential fomites. Experts believed that dromedary camels play the largest role in MERS-CoV infection of other dromedaries; however, they also indicated a significant influence of the season (i.e. calving or weaning periods) on transmission risk. All experts thought that MERS-CoV-infected dromedaries and asymptomatic humans play the most important role in infection of humans, with bats and other species presenting a possible, but yet undefined, risk. Direct and indirect contact of humans with dromedary camels were identified as the most risky types of contact, when compared to consumption of various camel products, with estimated “most likely

  13. Using expert opinion to prioritize impacts of climate change on sea turtles' nesting grounds.

    PubMed

    Fuentes, M M P B; Cinner, J E

    2010-12-01

    Managers and conservationists often need to prioritize which impacts from climate change to deal with from a long list of threats. However, data which allows comparison of the relative impact from climatic threats for decision-making is often unavailable. This is the case for the management of sea turtles in the face of climate change. The terrestrial life stages of sea turtles can be negatively impacted by various climatic processes, such as sea level rise, altered cyclonic activity, and increased sand temperatures. However, no study has systematically investigated the relative impact of each of these climatic processes, making it challenging for managers to prioritize their decisions and resources. To address this we offer a systematic method for eliciting expert knowledge to estimate the relative impact of climatic processes on sea turtles' terrestrial reproductive phase. For this we used as an example the world's largest population of green sea turtles and asked 22 scientists and managers to answer a paper based survey with a series of pair-wise comparison matrices that compared the anticipated impacts from each climatic process. Both scientists and managers agreed that increased sand temperature will likely cause the most threat to the reproductive output of the nGBR green turtle population followed by sea level rise, then altered cyclonic activity. The methodology used proved useful to determine the relative impact of the selected climatic processes on sea turtles' reproductive output and provided valuable information for decision-making. Thus, the methodological approach can potentially be applied to other species and ecosystems of management concern.

  14. Management of superficial vein thrombosis and thrombophlebitis: status and expert opinion document.

    PubMed

    Cesarone, M R; Belcaro, G; Agus, G; Georgiev, M; Errichi, B M; Marinucci, R; Errichi, S; Filippini, A; Pellegrini, L; Ledda, A; Vinciguerra, G; Ricci, A; Cipollone, G; Lania, M; Gizzi, G; Ippolito, E; Bavera, P; Fano, F; Dugall, M; Adovasio, R; Gallione, L; Del Boccio, G; Cornelli, U; Steigerwalt, R; Acerbi, G; Cacchio, M; Di Renzo, A; Hosoi, M; Stuard, S; Corsi, M; Di Ciano, L; Simeone, E; Collevecchio, G; Grossi, M G; Di Giambattista, F; Carestia, F; Zukowski, A

    2007-01-01

    Superficial vein thrombosis is characterized by clotting of superficial veins (ie, following direct trauma) with minimal inflammatory components. Superficial thrombophlebitis is a minimally thrombotic process of superficial veins associated with inflammatory changes and/or infection. Treatments generally include analgesics, elastic compression, anti-inflammatory agents, exercise and ambulation, and, in some cases, local or systemic anticoagulants. It is better to avoid bed rest and reduced mobility. Topical analgesia with nonsteroidal, anti-inflammatory creams applied locally to the superficial vein thrombosis/superficial thrombophlebitis area controls symptoms. Hirudoid cream (heparinoid) shortens the duration of signs/symptoms. Locally acting anticoagulants/antithrombotics (Viatromb, Lipohep, spray Na-heparin) have positive effects on pain and on the reduction in thrombus size. Intravenous catheters should be changed every 24 to 48 hours (depending on venous flow and clinical parameters) to prevent superficial vein thrombosis/superficial thrombophlebitis and removed in case of events. Low molecular weight heparin prophylaxis and nitroglycerin patches distal to peripheral lines may reduce the incidence of superficial vein thrombosis/superficial thrombophlebitis in patients with vein catheters. In case of superficial vein thrombosis/superficial thrombophlebitis, vein lines should be removed. In neoplastic diseases and hematological disorders, anticoagulants may be necessary. Exercise reduces pain and the possibility of deep vein thrombosis. Only in cases in which pain is very severe is bed rest necessary. Deep vein thrombosis prophylaxis should be established in patients with reduced mobility. Antibiotics usually do not have a place in superficial vein thrombosis/superficial thrombophlebitis unless there are documented infections. Prevention of superficial vein thrombosis should be considered on the basis of patient's history and clinical evaluation.

  15. Diagnosis and management of symptoms associated with vulvovaginal atrophy: expert opinion on behalf of the Italian VVA study group *

    PubMed Central

    Nappi, Rossella E.; Biglia, Nicoletta; Cagnacci, Angelo; Di Carlo, Costantino; Luisi, Stefano; Paoletti, Anna Maria

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Vulvovaginal atrophy (VVA) is a chronic disorder that commonly occurs in postmenopausal women, whose symptoms are recognized among the most frequent and bothersome symptoms associated with menopause. The principal therapeutic goal in managing VVA is to relieve symptoms as well as to restore the vaginal environment to a healthy state. However, despite its high prevalence and negative impact on quality of life, VVA is underreported by women, underrecognized by gynecologists, and therefore, undertreated. In the light of the new development of treatment options for VVA, we here provide an updated expert opinion on the management of VVA. In particular, we strongly recommend that HCPs proactively start an open discussion with their postmenopausal patients about urogenital symptoms. Treatment should be started as early as the first symptoms of VVA occur and should be maintained over time, due to the chronicity of the conditions. Many treatment options are now available and therapy should be individualized, taking the woman’s preference in consideration. PMID:27187159

  16. Identification, prevention and management of cardiovascular risk in chronic myeloid leukaemia patients candidate to ponatinib: an expert opinion.

    PubMed

    Breccia, Massimo; Pregno, Patrizia; Spallarossa, Paolo; Arboscello, Eleonora; Ciceri, Fabio; Giorgi, Mauro; Grossi, Alberto; Mallardo, Mario; Nodari, Savina; Ottolini, Stefano; Sala, Carla; Tortorella, Giovanni; Rosti, Gianantonio; Pane, Fabrizio; Minotti, Giorgio; Baccarani, Michele

    2017-04-01

    Ponatinib (Iclusig, ARIAD Pharmaceuticals-Incyte Co.) is a third-generation structure-guided tyrosine kinase inhibitor that is approved for treatment of Philadelphia chromosome-positive leukaemias resistant or intolerant to other inhibitors. The clinical use of ponatinib is complicated by the possible development of cardiovascular events, primarily hypertension and arterial or venous thrombotic events. The US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicine Agency recommend that the cardiovascular profile of patients candidate for ponatinib should be carefully evaluated. For patients deemed to carry a high risk of cardiovascular events, other life-saving therapeutic options should be considered. When alternative options are not available, treatment with ponatinib is indicated but requires that haematologists and cardiologists collaborate and identify modalities of surveillance and risk mitigation in the best interest of the patient. This article reports on the expert opinion provided by a panel of Italian haematologists, cardiologists and clinical pharmacologists. It summarises suggestions that may help to improve the therapeutic index of ponatinib, primarily in the settings of chronic-phase chronic myeloid leukaemia.

  17. [Study on expert system of infrared spectral characteristic of combustible smoke agent].

    PubMed

    Song, Dong-ming; Guan, Hua; Hou, Wei; Pan, Gong-pei

    2009-05-01

    The present paper studied the application of expert system in prediction of infrared spectral characteristic of combustible anti-infrared smoke agent. The construction of the expert system was founded, based on the theory of minimum free energy and infrared spectral addition. After the direction of smoke agent was input, the expert system could figure out the final combustion products. Then infrared spectrogram of smoke could also be simulated by adding the spectra of all of the combustion products. Meanwhile, the screening index of smoke was provided in the wave bands of 3-5 im and 8-14 microm. FTIR spectroscope was used to investigate the performance of one kind of HC smoke. The combustion products calculated by the expert system were coincident with the actual data, and the simulant infrared spectrum was also similar to the real one of the smoke. The screening index given by the system was consistent with the known facts. It was showed that a new approach was offered for the fast discrimination of varieties of directions of smoke agent.

  18. Method for distributed agent-based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior

    DOEpatents

    Ivezic, Nenad; Potok, Thomas E.

    2004-11-30

    A method for distributed agent based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior on a single-processor computer comprises the steps of: object modeling a manufacturing technique having a plurality of processes; associating a distributed agent with each the process; and, programming each the agent to respond to discrete events corresponding to the manufacturing technique, wherein each discrete event triggers a programmed response. The method can further comprise the step of transmitting the discrete events to each agent in a message loop. In addition, the programming step comprises the step of conditioning each agent to respond to a discrete event selected from the group consisting of a clock tick message, a resources received message, and a request for output production message.

  19. The Effects of Peer-Like and Expert-Like Pedagogical Agents on Learners' Agent Perceptions, Task-Related Attitudes, and Learning Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liew, Tze Wei; Tan, Su-Mae; Jayothisa, Chandrika

    2013-01-01

    The present study examined the impact of peer-like and expert-like agent stereotypes, as operationalized by agent's image and voice, on learners' agent perceptions, task-related attitudes, and learning achievement. 56 university freshmen (23 males and 33 females) interacted with either the peer-like agent (female college student) or the…

  20. Evidence and expert opinions: Dry needling versus acupuncture (I) : The American Alliance for Professional Acupuncture Safety (AAPAS) White Paper 2016.

    PubMed

    Fan, Arthur Yin; Xu, Jun; Li, Yong-Ming

    2017-01-01

    In the last twenty years, in the United States and other Western countries, dry needling (DN) became a hot and debatable topic, not only in academic but also in legal fields. This White Paper is to provide the authoritative information of DN versus acupuncture to academic scholars, healthcare professional administrators, lawmakers, and the general public through providing the authoritative evidence and experts' opinions regarding critical issues of DN versus acupuncture, and then reach consensus. DN is the use of dry needles alone, either solid filiform acupuncture needles or hollow-core hypodermic needles, to insert into the body for the treatment of muscle pain and related myofascial pain syndrome. DN is sometimes also known as intramuscular stimulati on, trigger points (TrP) acupuncture, TrP DN, myofascial TrP DN, or biomedical acupuncture. In Western countries, DN is a form of simplified acupuncture using biomedical language in treating myofascial pain, a contemporary development of a portion of Ashi point acupuncture from Chinese acupuncture. It seeks to redefine acupuncture by reframing its theoretical principles in a Western manner. DN-like needling with filiform needles have been widely used in Chinese acupuncture practice over the past 2,000 years, and with hypodermic needles has been used in China in acupuncture practice for at least 72 years. In Eastern countries, such as China, since late of 1800s or earlier, DN is a common name of acupuncture among acupuncturists and the general public, which has a broader scope of indications, not limited to treating the myofascial pain.

  1. Ethical acceptability of research on human-animal chimeric embryos: summary of opinions by the Japanese Expert Panel on Bioethics.

    PubMed

    Mizuno, Hiroshi; Akutsu, Hidenori; Kato, Kazuto

    2015-01-01

    Human-animal chimeric embryos are embryos obtained by introducing human cells into a non-human animal embryo. It is envisaged that the application of human-animal chimeric embryos may make possible many useful research projects including producing three-dimensional human organs in animals and verification of the pluripotency of human ES cells or iPS cells in vivo. The use of human-animal chimeric embryos, however, raises several ethical and moral concerns. The most fundamental one is that human-animal chimeric embryos possess the potential to develop into organisms containing human-derived tissue, which may lead to infringing upon the identity of the human species, and thus impairing human dignity. The Japanese Expert Panel on Bioethics in the Cabinet Office carefully considered the scientific significance and ethical acceptability of the issue and released its "Opinions regarding the handling of research using human-animal chimeric embryos". The Panel proposed a framework of case-by-case review, and suggested that the following points must be carefully reviewed from the perspective of ethical acceptability: (a) Types of animal embryos and types of animals receiving embryo transfers, particularly in dealing with non-human primates; (b) Types of human cells and organs intended for production, particularly in dealing with human nerve or germ cells; and (c) Extent of the period required for post-transfer studies. The scientific knowledge that can be gained from transfer into an animal uterus and from the production of an individual must be clarified to avoid unnecessary generation of chimeric animals. The time is ripe for the scientific community and governments to start discussing the ethical issues for establishing a global consensus.

  2. Roles of publishers, subscription agents, and institutional subscribers in the academic journal business : Opinions after reading the “Series: Perspectives on serials crisis and scholarly communication practice”

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taguchi, Nobuyuki

    Roles of publishers, subscription agents, and institutional subscribers in the academic journal business : Opinions after reading the “Series: Perspectives on serials crisis and scholarly communication practice”

  3. The use of expert opinion to assess the risk of emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases in Canada associated with climate change.

    PubMed

    Cox, Ruth; Revie, Crawford W; Sanchez, Javier

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change is predicted to lead to an increase in infectious disease outbreaks. Reliable surveillance for diseases that are most likely to emerge is required, and given limited resources, policy decision makers need rational methods with which to prioritise pathogen threats. Here expert opinion was collected to determine what criteria could be used to prioritise diseases according to the likelihood of emergence in response to climate change and according to their impact. We identified a total of 40 criteria that might be used for this purpose in the Canadian context. The opinion of 64 experts from academic, government and independent backgrounds was collected to determine the importance of the criteria. A weight was calculated for each criterion based on the expert opinion. The five that were considered most influential on disease emergence or impact were: potential economic impact, severity of disease in the general human population, human case fatality rate, the type of climate that the pathogen can tolerate and the current climatic conditions in Canada. There was effective consensus about the influence of some criteria among participants, while for others there was considerable variation. The specific climate criteria that were most likely to influence disease emergence were: an annual increase in temperature, an increase in summer temperature, an increase in summer precipitation and to a lesser extent an increase in winter temperature. These climate variables were considered to be most influential on vector-borne diseases and on food and water-borne diseases. Opinion about the influence of climate on air-borne diseases and diseases spread by direct/indirect contact were more variable. The impact of emerging diseases on the human population was deemed more important than the impact on animal populations.

  4. The Use of Expert Opinion to Assess the Risk of Emergence or Re-Emergence of Infectious Diseases in Canada Associated with Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Cox, Ruth; Revie, Crawford W.; Sanchez, Javier

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change is predicted to lead to an increase in infectious disease outbreaks. Reliable surveillance for diseases that are most likely to emerge is required, and given limited resources, policy decision makers need rational methods with which to prioritise pathogen threats. Here expert opinion was collected to determine what criteria could be used to prioritise diseases according to the likelihood of emergence in response to climate change and according to their impact. We identified a total of 40 criteria that might be used for this purpose in the Canadian context. The opinion of 64 experts from academic, government and independent backgrounds was collected to determine the importance of the criteria. A weight was calculated for each criterion based on the expert opinion. The five that were considered most influential on disease emergence or impact were: potential economic impact, severity of disease in the general human population, human case fatality rate, the type of climate that the pathogen can tolerate and the current climatic conditions in Canada. There was effective consensus about the influence of some criteria among participants, while for others there was considerable variation. The specific climate criteria that were most likely to influence disease emergence were: an annual increase in temperature, an increase in summer temperature, an increase in summer precipitation and to a lesser extent an increase in winter temperature. These climate variables were considered to be most influential on vector-borne diseases and on food and water-borne diseases. Opinion about the influence of climate on air-borne diseases and diseases spread by direct/indirect contact were more variable. The impact of emerging diseases on the human population was deemed more important than the impact on animal populations. PMID:22848536

  5. [Opinions issued by an expert appointed by a court in civil cases from the point of view of the defendant insurance company].

    PubMed

    Truszkiewicz, Waldemar; Pałka, Janusz; Maciejczak, Paweł

    2007-01-01

    The paper presents and analyses problems which are encountered by an insurance company in connection with the opinions issued by experts appointed by a court in civil cases and concerning the evaluation of the results of accidents or damages in civil liability insurance. Every year, the group of physicians employed by the Office of Medical Services of Insurance at the PZU Zycie SA and PZU SA, issues opinions for about 3000 appeal and complicated cases from all over Poland. In some of the cases, an individual holding an accident insurance policy or an injured person in the case of civil liability insurance disagrees with the findings of the insurance company and brings the case to a civil court. About 7% of the opinions issued by the Office in 2005 were polemics with court experts, concerning their manner of classifying the results of an accident or an event which resulted in damage to an individual. Among the 200 opinions, there are several important and recurring problems, which are presented in the paper. The main doubts concern: 1. insufficient analysis of the circumstances of an event and drawing hasty conclusions about the cause-and-effect relationship, 2. claiming the certain occurrence of a cause-and-effect relationship, despite substantial doubts, 3. absence of analysis of general conditions of insurance, which in voluntary insurance may contain various exemptions and restrictions, 4. insufficient analysis of medical documentation containing information about some deviations before the event, 5. determining by the experts the degree of permanent loss of health despite the absence of functional impairment revealed in an examination, 6. determining permanent results of an accident based solely on unverifiable subjective complaints, 7. deciding about the percentage of permanent detriment to health in most cases on a slightly higher level than was decided by a physician who took such a decision for the insurance agency.

  6. Workflow Agents vs. Expert Systems: Problem Solving Methods in Work Systems Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clancey, William J.; Sierhuis, Maarten; Seah, Chin

    2009-01-01

    During the 1980s, a community of artificial intelligence researchers became interested in formalizing problem solving methods as part of an effort called "second generation expert systems" (2nd GES). How do the motivations and results of this research relate to building tools for the workplace today? We provide an historical review of how the theory of expertise has developed, a progress report on a tool for designing and implementing model-based automation (Brahms), and a concrete example how we apply 2nd GES concepts today in an agent-based system for space flight operations (OCAMS). Brahms incorporates an ontology for modeling work practices, what people are doing in the course of a day, characterized as "activities." OCAMS was developed using a simulation-to-implementation methodology, in which a prototype tool was embedded in a simulation of future work practices. OCAMS uses model-based methods to interactively plan its actions and keep track of the work to be done. The problem solving methods of practice are interactive, employing reasoning for and through action in the real world. Analogously, it is as if a medical expert system were charged not just with interpreting culture results, but actually interacting with a patient. Our perspective shifts from building a "problem solving" (expert) system to building an actor in the world. The reusable components in work system designs include entire "problem solvers" (e.g., a planning subsystem), interoperability frameworks, and workflow agents that use and revise models dynamically in a network of people and tools. Consequently, the research focus shifts so "problem solving methods" include ways of knowing that models do not fit the world, and ways of interacting with other agents and people to gain or verify information and (ultimately) adapt rules and procedures to resolve problematic situations.

  7. Defining Landscape Resistance Values in Least-Cost Connectivity Models for the Invasive Grey Squirrel: A Comparison of Approaches Using Expert-Opinion and Habitat Suitability Modelling

    PubMed Central

    Stevenson-Holt, Claire D.; Watts, Kevin; Bellamy, Chloe C.; Nevin, Owen T.; Ramsey, Andrew D.

    2014-01-01

    Least-cost models are widely used to study the functional connectivity of habitat within a varied landscape matrix. A critical step in the process is identifying resistance values for each land cover based upon the facilitating or impeding impact on species movement. Ideally resistance values would be parameterised with empirical data, but due to a shortage of such information, expert-opinion is often used. However, the use of expert-opinion is seen as subjective, human-centric and unreliable. This study derived resistance values from grey squirrel habitat suitability models (HSM) in order to compare the utility and validity of this approach with more traditional, expert-led methods. Models were built and tested with MaxEnt, using squirrel presence records and a categorical land cover map for Cumbria, UK. Predictions on the likelihood of squirrel occurrence within each land cover type were inverted, providing resistance values which were used to parameterise a least-cost model. The resulting habitat networks were measured and compared to those derived from a least-cost model built with previously collated information from experts. The expert-derived and HSM-inferred least-cost networks differ in precision. The HSM-informed networks were smaller and more fragmented because of the higher resistance values attributed to most habitats. These results are discussed in relation to the applicability of both approaches for conservation and management objectives, providing guidance to researchers and practitioners attempting to apply and interpret a least-cost approach to mapping ecological networks. PMID:25380289

  8. What to Do, and What Not to Do, When Diagnosing and Treating Breakthrough Cancer Pain (BTcP): Expert Opinion.

    PubMed

    Vellucci, R; Fanelli, G; Pannuti, R; Peruselli, C; Adamo, S; Alongi, G; Amato, F; Consoletti, L; Lamarca, L; Liguori, S; Lo Presti, C; Maione, A; Mameli, S; Marinangeli, F; Marulli, S; Minotti, V; Miotti, D; Montanari, L; Moruzzi, G; Palermo, S; Parolini, M; Poli, P; Tirelli, W; Valle, A; Romualdi, P

    2016-03-01

    Clinical management of breakthrough cancer pain (BTcP) is still not satisfactory despite the availability of effective pharmacological agents. This is in part linked to the lack of clarity regarding certain essential aspects of BTcP, including terminology, definition, epidemiology and assessment. Other barriers to effective management include a widespread prejudice among doctors and patients concerning the use of opioids, and inadequate assessment of pain severity, resulting in the prescription of ineffective drugs or doses. This review presents an overview of the appropriate and inappropriate actions to take in the diagnosis and treatment of BTcP, as determined by a panel of experts in the field. The ultimate aim is to provide a practical contribution to the unresolved issues in the management of BTcP. Five 'things to do' and five 'things not to do' in the diagnosis and treatment of BTcP are proposed, and evidence supporting said recommendations are described. It is the duty of all healthcare workers involved in managing cancer patients to be mindful of the possibility of BTcP occurrence and not to underestimate its severity. It is vital that all the necessary steps are carried out to establish an accurate and timely diagnosis, principally by establishing effective communication with the patient, the main information source. It is crucial that BTcP is treated with an effective pharmacological regimen and drug(s), dose and administration route prescribed are designed to suit the particular type of pain and importantly the individual needs of the patient.

  9. Has e-Learning Delivered on Its Promises? Expert Opinion on the Impact of e-Learning in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kanuka, Heather; Kelland, Jennifer

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the extent of agreement among experts on the impact of e-learning technology in Canadian higher education learning experiences. Fourteen participants who are experts in e-learning in higher education agreed there are contentions about e-learning technologies in the following areas: (1) a platform for…

  10. Portal hypertension in children: expert pediatric opinion on the report of the Baveno v Consensus Workshop on Methodology of Diagnosis and Therapy in Portal Hypertension.

    PubMed

    Shneider, Benjamin L; Bosch, Jaime; de Franchis, Roberto; Emre, Sukru H; Groszmann, Roberto J; Ling, Simon C; Lorenz, Jonathan M; Squires, Robert H; Superina, Riccardo A; Thompson, Ann E; Mazariegos, George V

    2012-08-01

    Complications of portal hypertension in children lead to significant morbidity and are a leading indication for consideration of liver transplantation. Approaches to the management of sequelae of portal hypertension are well described for adults and evidence-based approaches have been summarized in numerous meta-analyses and conferences. In contrast, there is a paucity of data to guide the management of complications of portal hypertension in children. An international panel of experts was convened on April 8, 2011 at The Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh of UPMC to review and adapt the recent report of the Baveno V Consensus Workshop on the Methodology of Diagnosis and Therapy in Portal Hypertension to the care of children. The opinions of that expert panel are reported.

  11. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of three basalt waste isolation project staff hydrologists

    SciTech Connect

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The present study implemented a probability encoding method to estimate the probability distributions of selected hydrologic variables for the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior, and the anisotropy ratio of the interior of the Cohassett basalt flow beneath the Hanford Site. Site-speciic data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. However, this information is required to complete preliminary performance assessment studies. Rockwell chose a probability encoding method developed by SRI International to generate credible and auditable estimates of the probability distributions of effective porosity and hydraulic conductivity anisotropy. The results indicate significant differences of opinion among the experts. This was especially true of the values of the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow interior for which estimates differ by more than five orders of magnitude. The experts are in greater agreement about the values of effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top; their estimates for this variable are generally within one to two orders of magnitiude of each other. For anisotropy ratio, the expert estimates are generally within two or three orders of magnitude of each other. Based on this study, the Rockwell hydrologists estimate the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top to be generally higher than do the independent experts. For the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a smaller uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts. On the other hand, for the effective porosity and anisotropy ratio of the Cohassett basalt flow interior, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a larger uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts.

  12. Efficiency and factors influencing efficiency of Community Health Strategy in providing Maternal and Child Health services in Mwingi District, Kenya: an expert opinion perspective

    PubMed Central

    Nzioki, Japheth Mativo; Onyango, Rosebella Ogutu; Ombaka, James Herbert

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Community Health Strategy (CHS) is a new Primary Health Care (PHC) model in Kenya, designed to provide PHC services in Kenya. In 2011, CHS was initiated in Mwingi district as one of the components of APHIA plus kamili program. The objectives of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of the CHS in providing MCH services in Mwingi district and to establish the factors influencing efficiency of the CHS in providing MCH services in the district. Methods This was a qualitative study. Fifteen Key informants were sampled from key stakeholders. Sampling was done using purposive and maximum variation sampling methods. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were used for data collection. Data was managed and analyzed using NVIVO. Framework analysis and quasi statistics were used in data analysis. Results Expert opinion data indicated that the CHS was efficient in providing MCH services. Factors influencing efficiency of the CHS in provision of MCH services were: challenges facing Community Health Workers (CHWs), Social cultural and economic factors influencing MCH in the district, and motivation among CHWs. Conclusion Though CHS was found to be efficient in providing MCH services, this was an expert opinion perspective, a quantitative Cost Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) to confirm these findings is recommended. To improve efficiency of the CHS in the district, challenges facing CHWs and Social cultural and economic factors that influence efficiency of the CHS in the district need to be addressed. PMID:26090046

  13. The Hunt Opinion Model—An Agent Based Approach to Recurring Fashion Cycles

    PubMed Central

    Apriasz, Rafał; Krueger, Tyll; Marcjasz, Grzegorz; Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna

    2016-01-01

    We study a simple agent-based model of the recurring fashion cycles in the society that consists of two interacting communities: “snobs” and “followers” (or “opinion hunters”, hence the name of the model). Followers conform to all other individuals, whereas snobs conform only to their own group and anticonform to the other. The model allows to examine the role of the social structure, i.e. the influence of the number of inter-links between the two communities, as well as the role of the stability of links. The latter is accomplished by considering two versions of the same model—quenched (parameterized by fraction L of fixed inter-links) and annealed (parameterized by probability p that a given inter-link exists). Using Monte Carlo simulations and analytical treatment (the latter only for the annealed model), we show that there is a critical fraction of inter-links, above which recurring cycles occur. For p ≤ 0.5 we derive a relation between parameters L and p that allows to compare both models and show that the critical value of inter-connections, p*, is the same for both versions of the model (annealed and quenched) but the period of a fashion cycle is shorter for the quenched model. Near the critical point, the cycles are irregular and a change of fashion is difficult to predict. For the annealed model we also provide a deeper theoretical analysis. We conjecture on topological grounds that the so-called saddle node heteroclinic bifurcation appears at p*. For p ≥ 0.5 we show analytically the existence of the second critical value of p, for which the system undergoes Hopf’s bifurcation. PMID:27835679

  14. The Hunt Opinion Model-An Agent Based Approach to Recurring Fashion Cycles.

    PubMed

    Apriasz, Rafał; Krueger, Tyll; Marcjasz, Grzegorz; Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna

    2016-01-01

    We study a simple agent-based model of the recurring fashion cycles in the society that consists of two interacting communities: "snobs" and "followers" (or "opinion hunters", hence the name of the model). Followers conform to all other individuals, whereas snobs conform only to their own group and anticonform to the other. The model allows to examine the role of the social structure, i.e. the influence of the number of inter-links between the two communities, as well as the role of the stability of links. The latter is accomplished by considering two versions of the same model-quenched (parameterized by fraction L of fixed inter-links) and annealed (parameterized by probability p that a given inter-link exists). Using Monte Carlo simulations and analytical treatment (the latter only for the annealed model), we show that there is a critical fraction of inter-links, above which recurring cycles occur. For p ≤ 0.5 we derive a relation between parameters L and p that allows to compare both models and show that the critical value of inter-connections, p*, is the same for both versions of the model (annealed and quenched) but the period of a fashion cycle is shorter for the quenched model. Near the critical point, the cycles are irregular and a change of fashion is difficult to predict. For the annealed model we also provide a deeper theoretical analysis. We conjecture on topological grounds that the so-called saddle node heteroclinic bifurcation appears at p*. For p ≥ 0.5 we show analytically the existence of the second critical value of p, for which the system undergoes Hopf's bifurcation.

  15. Experts reviews of the multidisciplinary consensus conference colon and rectal cancer 2012: science, opinions and experiences from the experts of surgery.

    PubMed

    van de Velde, C J H; Boelens, P G; Tanis, P J; Espin, E; Mroczkowski, P; Naredi, P; Pahlman, L; Ortiz, H; Rutten, H J; Breugom, A J; Smith, J J; Wibe, A; Wiggers, T; Valentini, V

    2014-04-01

    The first multidisciplinary consensus conference on colon and rectal cancer was held in December 2012, achieving a majority of consensus for diagnostic and treatment decisions using the Delphi Method. This article will give a critical appraisal of the topics discussed during the meeting and in the consensus document by well-known leaders in surgery that were involved in this multidisciplinary consensus process. Scientific evidence, experience and opinions are collected to support multidisciplinary teams (MDT) with arguments for medical decision-making in diagnosis, staging and treatment strategies for patients with colon or rectal cancer. Surgery is the cornerstone of curative treatment for colon and rectal cancer. Standardizing treatment is an effective instrument to improve outcome of multidisciplinary cancer care for patients with colon and rectal cancer. In this article, a review of the following focuses; Perioperative care, age and colorectal surgery, obstructive colorectal cancer, stenting, surgical anatomical considerations, total mesorectal excision (TME) surgery and training, surgical considerations for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) and local recurrent rectal cancer (LRRC), surgery in stage IV colorectal cancer, definitions of quality of surgery, transanal endoscopic microsurgery (TEM), laparoscopic colon and rectal surgery, preoperative radiotherapy and chemoradiotherapy, and how about functional outcome after surgery?

  16. Voices from the Field: 30 Expert Opinions on America 2000, The Bush Administration Strategy To "Reinvent" America's Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Institute for Educational Leadership, Washington, DC.

    "America 2000," President Bush's national strategy for "Reinventing America's Schools" is evaluated by 30 invited experts in the following papers: "Bottom-up Reform From the Top Down" (John E. Chubb); "Would Choice + Competition Yield Quality Education?" (Richard F. Elmore); "The Federal Education Role…

  17. The need for public education on HPV and cervical cancer prevention in Asia. Opinions of experts at the AOGIN conference.

    PubMed

    Garland, S; Park, S N; Ngan, H Y S; Frazer, I; Tay, E H; Chen, C J; Bhatla, N; Pitts, M; Shin, H R; Konno, R; Smith, J; Pagliusi, S; Park, J S

    2008-10-09

    Asia accounts for more than half of all cases of cervical cancer registered globally and improving prevention is urgently needed. A range of tools and strategies is now available to effectively prevent this disease, including two new prophylactic HPV vaccines approved and recommended for adolescents and young women. However, without communication these tools may have little impact on disease burden. The conferences of the Asia Oceania Research Organisation in Genital Infection and Neoplasia (AOGIN) bring together clinicians and scientists whose work is related to genital infections, particularly HPV, cervical dysplasia and neoplasia, as well as other anogenital cancers, with the aim of improving communication on prevention through human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and screening in Asian countries. The scope of this year's AOGIN conference was to extend education to include health workers, family doctors, paediatricians, governmental health agencies, and the general public through patients' testimonials that can reach out to women raising awareness of this silent disease. Community based initiatives and awareness campaigns were also reported, and can empower the people to engage in a dialog with local governments towards prioritization of cancer prevention programs, achieving more for the public than isolated actions. Parents and teachers are encouraged to communicate about these issues within families and schools. Evidence was discussed that males can participate in cervical cancer control as well, and prevention programs involving men should not be neglected as they may reduce genital disease burden in women. Opinion leaders proposed prevention measures to be considered for governmental decisions. While each country develops a locally appropriate policy for cervical cancer control there is a need to revise these programs regularly, as knowledge increases in response to public need, as well as to gather evidence about disease burden and the effectiveness of

  18. [Security measures in the penal code, in the opinions of expert psychiatrists and some problems in their applications].

    PubMed

    Hajdukiewicz, Danuta

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to remind expert psychiatrists, the three basic elements required for the application of security measures such as placing the convict in a psychiatric hospital. They are: 1) An act was of serious social damage, 2) the damage was committed in a state of non-liability, 3) there is a high risk of the person repeating the act of similar social damage. The fulfilment of these three is an obligation for the court to apply the security measure of placing the person in a psychiatric hospital (art. 94 section 1 of the penal code). Practice shows that experts have difficulties in these evaluations, which in turn results in faults in directing for placement withoutjust cause, or in turn-there is no directing, even though there are causes for it. There is a huge need for legal regulations on these manners, after the forensic psychiatric observation ends. The non-liable delinquent who committed an act of serious social damage is in risk of committing this act once more, whilst he is not in custody. The issue is in showing a legal basis for keeping the non-liable delinquent from such an act in a psychiatric hospital, in spite of ending the observation, until the legal sentence on the security measure is in place.

  19. Formulation and communication of evaluative forensic science expert opinion-A GHEP-ISFG contribution to the establishment of standards.

    PubMed

    Amorim, António; Crespillo, Manuel; Luque, Juan A; Prieto, Lourdes; Garcia, Oscar; Gusmão, Leonor; Aler, Mercedes; Barrio, Pedro A; Saragoni, Victor G; Pinto, Nadia

    2016-11-01

    Communicating and interpreting genetic evidence in the administration of justice is currently a matter of great concern, due to the theoretical and technical complexity of the evaluative reporting and large difference in expertise between forensic experts and law professionals. A large number of initiatives have been taken trying to bridge this gap, contributing to the education of both parties. Results however have not been very encouraging, as most of these initiatives try to cope globally with the problem, addressing simultaneously theoretical and technical approaches which are in a quite heterogeneous state of development and validation. In consequence, the extension and complexity of the resulting documents disheartens their study by professionals (both jurists and geneticists) and makes a consensus very hard to reach even among the genetic experts' community. Here we propose a 'back-to-basics', example-driven approach, in which a model report for the two most common situations faced by forensic laboratories is presented. We do hope that this strategy will provide a solid basis for a stepwise generalisation.

  20. Models of multi-agent behavior: a simulation and Expert Environment approach

    SciTech Connect

    Lounamaa, P.H.M.

    1985-01-01

    The goal of this thesis is to improve our understanding of behavioral phenomena in multi-agent decision making via modeling. A secondary goal is to develop a powerful simulation methodology for analyzing dynamic systems. A research question is the relevance of artificial intelligence techniques. A Simulation and Expert Environment (SEE), developed in LISP, integrates difference equation simulation with object-oriented programming and rule-based reasoning. The object-oriented approach offers a method for managing variants of the models. Ways to integrate rule-based reasoning and simulation are demonstrated, but the former's computational inefficiency limits usefulness. The system provides fast runaround between defining a model and obtaining results, which increases the productivity of the modeler, and encourages experimental modeling, leading to novel formulations and results. SEE is used to study the impact of biases, attribution heuristics, and trust on decision making in a team whose members are myopic and altruistic. The theme of this study is trust as a counter-bias. Using experimental modeling and the tools in SEE for exploring parametric solutions, behaviorally substantial results are obtained.

  1. Scratching the surface of tomorrow's diagnostics: the Editor-in-Chief's opinion at the 15th year of Expert Review of Molecular Diagnostics.

    PubMed

    Lorincz, Attila; Raison, Claire

    2015-01-01

    Interview with Attila Lorincz by Claire Raison (Commissioning Editor) To mark the beginning of the 15th year of Expert Review of Molecular Diagnostics, the journal's Editor-in-Chief shares his expert knowledge on translational diagnostics, his opinion on recent controversies and his predictions for molecular diagnostics in 2015 and beyond. Attila Lorincz received his doctorate from Trinity College, Dublin, Republic of Ireland, and went on to become a research fellow at the University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA. During Professor Lorincz's research on human papillomavirus (HPV), he found several important and novel carcinogenic HPV types and pioneered the use of HPV DNA testing for clinical diagnostics. In 1988, Professor Lorincz's team produced the first HPV test to be FDA-approved for patients and in 2003, for general population cervical precancer screening. Now Professor of Molecular Epidemiology at the Centre for Cancer Prevention, Queen Mary University of London, UK, he and his team are furthering translational research into DNA methylation assays for cancer risk prediction.

  2. Incidence and distribution of foot-and-mouth disease in Asia, Africa and South America; combining expert opinion, official disease information and livestock populations to assist risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sumption, K; Rweyemamu, M; Wint, W

    2008-01-01

    Risk assessment procedures frequently require quantitative data on the prevalence of the disease in question. Although most countries are members of the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), the importance attached to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) reporting or surveillance for infection varies enormously between infected countries. There is a general consensus that FMD outbreaks in endemic countries are greatly under-reported, to a degree related either to the economic or the political development level of the country. This exploratory study was first undertaken by FAO, but thereafter extended and reviewed by the working group on FMD risk co-ordinated by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). The paper attempts to overcome the lack of reporting through using expert opinion to extrapolate incidence indices from countries considered to have 'representative' levels of FMD. These were combined with livestock density distributions to provide maps of prevalence indices, which were found to be highest in China (pigs), India (cattle), the Near East (small ruminants) and the Sahel (small ruminants and cattle). Similar patterns were found when weighted expert rankings of a range of additional ranked disease parameters were also produced, and then combined with susceptible animal densities to produce a weighted multi-species density. Results suggest that the methods can provide useful information at both national and sub-national resolution, even for countries for which quantitative FMD data is currently unavailable: two of the regions identified provide little or no data on a regular basis to the OIE and therefore may be overlooked if the level of officially reported FMD is only used. As the estimated prevalences are based on recent disease history and expert opinion, they are most likely to be inaccurate where FMD incursions are infrequent as a result of the preventive measures and geographical and trade isolation. This study, therefore, highlights the need for

  3. Personalised, predictive and preventive medication process in hospitals—still rather missing: professional opinion survey on medication safety in Czech hospitals (based on professional opinions of recognised Czech health care experts)

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The survey had the following aims: (1) to rationalise the hypothesis that risks and losses relating to medication process' errors in Czech hospitals are at least comparable with the other developed countries and EU countries especially, (2) to get a valid professional opinion/estimate on the rate of adverse drug events happening in Czech hospitals, (3) to point out that medication errors represent real and serious risks and (4) to induce the hospital management readiness to execute fundamental changes and improvements to medication processes. We read through a lot of studies inquiring into hospitals' medication safety. Then, we selected the studies which brought reliable findings and formulated credible conclusions. Finally, we addressed reputable Czech experts in health care and asked them structured questions whether the studies' findings and conclusions corresponded with our respondents' own experience in the Czech hospital clinical practice and what their own estimates of adverse drug events' consequences were like. Based on the reputable Czech health care expert opinions/estimates, the rate of a false drug administration may exceed 5%, and over 7% of those cause serious health complications to Czech hospital inpatients. Measured by an average length of stay (ALOS), the Czech inpatients, harmed by a false drug administration, stay in hospital for more than 2.6 days longer than necessary. Any positive changes to a currently used, traditional, ways of drug dispensing and administration, along with computerisation, automation, electronic traceability, validation, or verification, must well pay off. Referring to the above results, it seems to be wise to follow the EU priorities in health and health care improvements. Thus, a right usage of the financial means provided by the EC—in terms of its new health programmes for the period 2014–2020 (e.g. Horizon 2020)—has a good chance of a good result in doing the right things right, at the right time and in the

  4. [The issue of expert opinions in underage pornography materials involving underage persons below 15 years of age].

    PubMed

    Szydłowski, Łukasz; Lorkiewicz-Muszyńska, Dorota; Łabicka, Marzena; Waloszczyk, Piotr; Parafiniuk, Mirosław

    2007-01-01

    The number of cases in which the estimation of age of the persons pictured in pornography materials is mandatory has been increasing for the last few years. The aim of the publication was to indicate the possibilities which are currently available for the forensic experts in this matter. The ones published heretofore mainly had focused on the difficulties which are inseparable elements of such expertise. Current publication has a demonstrative character and has been based upon the experience of two Forensic Medicine Departments. Such expertise have been constantly prepared in both of them for the last few years and none of them had to be changed till now. The currently available methods which allow for age estimation of the persons upon their photographical and movie images are far from perfection. Still authors remain skeptic about the possibility that significant progress in that matter can be achieved in predictable future. In such situation the most effective application of existing techniques becomes essential to minimize the risk of false-positive and false-negative results from appearing. Some of the difficulties pointed out by other authors are not important in practice.

  5. Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms.

    PubMed

    Skinner, Daniel J C; Rocks, Sophie A; Pollard, Simon J T

    2016-12-01

    A reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action.

  6. Opinion on adventitious agents testing for vaccines: why do we worry so much about adventitious agents in vaccines?

    PubMed

    Sheets, Rebecca L

    2013-06-10

    The manner in which viral vaccines are produced in a biological system makes them vulnerable to microbial contamination. Considerable effort is expended to avoid such contamination and to detect it if it occurred. Is this effort warranted, efficient, scientifically sound, and rational? When asked for my opinion on these matters, I agreed to discuss the basis and historical context for why we do what we do and proffer opinion on what we might do instead or in addition, as we look forward to the inclusion of new strategies and methods in our arsenal. Being an advocate of the 3 R's policy, I invite a re-examination of the traditional in vivo methods in particular. I also advocate for a risk-based approach consistent with "Quality by Design" as a more scientific and rational means of addressing these issues. In the end, vaccinologists need to reassure the public that the vaccines they or their children receive are safe and pure and that all reasonable measures are taken to safeguard them.

  7. Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

    2016-11-01

    Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

  8. Evaluating the safety and dosing of drugs in patients with liver cirrhosis by literature review and expert opinion

    PubMed Central

    Weersink, Rianne A; Bouma, Margriet; Burger, David M; Drenth, Joost P H; Hunfeld, Nicole G M; Kranenborg, Minke; Monster-Simons, Margje H; van Putten, Sandra A W; Metselaar, Herold J; Taxis, Katja; Borgsteede, Sander D

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Liver cirrhosis can have a major impact on drug pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics. Patients with cirrhosis often suffer from potentially preventable adverse drug reactions. Guidelines on safe prescribing for these patients are lacking. The aim of this study is to develop a systematic method for evaluating the safety and optimal dosage of drugs in patients with liver cirrhosis. Methods and analysis For each drug, a six-step evaluation process will be followed. (1) Available evidence on the pharmacokinetics and safety of a drug in patients with liver cirrhosis will be collected from the Summary of Product Characteristics (SmPC) and a systematic literature review will be performed. (2) Data regarding two outcomes, namely pharmacokinetics and safety, will be extracted and presented in a standardised assessment report. (3) A safety classification and dosage suggestion will be proposed for each drug. (4) An expert panel will discuss the validity and clinical relevance of this suggested advice. (5) Advices will be implemented in all relevant Clinical Decision Support Systems in the Netherlands and published on a website for patients and healthcare professionals. (6) The continuity of the advices will be guaranteed by a yearly check of new literature and comments on the advices. This protocol will be applied in the evaluation of a selection of drugs: (A) drugs used to treat (complications of) liver cirrhosis, and (B) drugs frequently prescribed to the general population. Ethics and dissemination Since this study does not directly involve human participants, it does not require ethical clearance. Besides implementation on a website and in clinical decision support systems, we aim to publish the generated advices of one or two drug classes in a peer-reviewed journal and at conference meetings. PMID:27733414

  9. Practical guidance and considerations for transitioning patients from oxcarbazepine or carbamazepine to eslicarbazepine acetate--Expert opinion.

    PubMed

    Peltola, Jukka; Holtkamp, Martin; Rocamora, Rodrigo; Ryvlin, Philippe; Sieradzan, Kasia; Villanueva, Vicente

    2015-09-01

    There is currently a lack of guidance on methodology and special considerations for transitioning patients from oxcarbazepine (OXC) or carbamazepine (CBZ) to eslicarbazepine acetate (ESL), if deemed clinically necessary. An advisory panel of epilepsy experts was convened to share their experience on the use of adjunctive ESL in clinical practice and to provide practical recommendations to help address this gap. When changing over from OXC to ESL, an OXC:ESL dose ratio of 1:1 should be employed to calculate the ESL target dose, and the changeover can take place overnight. No changes to comedication are required. Since CBZ has a different mechanism of action to ESL and is a stronger inducer of cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzymes, the transitioning of patients from CBZ to ESL requires careful consideration on a patient-by-patient basis. In general, a CBZ:ESL dose ratio of 1:1.3 should be employed to calculate the ESL target dose, and patients should be transitioned over a minimum period of 1-2weeks. Special considerations include adjustment of titration schedule and target dose in elderly patients and those with hepatic or renal impairment and potential adjustment of comedications metabolized by CYP enzymes. In summary, due to structural distinctions between ESL, OXC, and CBZ, which affect mechanism of action and tolerability, there are clinical situations in which it may be appropriate to consider transitioning patients from OXC or CBZ to ESL. Changing patients over from OXC to ESL is generally more straightforward than transitioning patients from CBZ to ESL, which requires careful consideration.

  10. A distributed agent architecture for real-time knowledge-based systems: Real-time expert systems project, phase 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, S. Daniel

    1990-01-01

    We propose a distributed agent architecture (DAA) that can support a variety of paradigms based on both traditional real-time computing and artificial intelligence. DAA consists of distributed agents that are classified into two categories: reactive and cognitive. Reactive agents can be implemented directly in Ada to meet hard real-time requirements and be deployed on on-board embedded processors. A traditional real-time computing methodology under consideration is the rate monotonic theory that can guarantee schedulability based on analytical methods. AI techniques under consideration for reactive agents are approximate or anytime reasoning that can be implemented using Bayesian belief networks as in Guardian. Cognitive agents are traditional expert systems that can be implemented in ART-Ada to meet soft real-time requirements. During the initial design of cognitive agents, it is critical to consider the migration path that would allow initial deployment on ground-based workstations with eventual deployment on on-board processors. ART-Ada technology enables this migration while Lisp-based technologies make it difficult if not impossible. In addition to reactive and cognitive agents, a meta-level agent would be needed to coordinate multiple agents and to provide meta-level control.

  11. Health outcomes of children born after IVF/ICSI: a review of current expert opinion and literature.

    PubMed

    Fauser, B C J M; Devroey, P; Diedrich, K; Balaban, B; Bonduelle, M; Delemarre-van de Waal, H A; Estella, C; Ezcurra, D; Geraedts, J P M; Howles, C M; Lerner-Geva, L; Serna, J; Wells, D

    2014-02-01

    The Sixth Evian Annual Reproduction (EVAR) Workshop Group Meeting was held to evaluate the impact of IVF/intracytoplasmic sperm injection on the health of assisted-conception children. Epidemiologists, reproductive endocrinologists, embryologists and geneticists presented data from published literature and ongoing research on the incidence of genetic and epigenetic abnormalities and congenital malformations in assisted-conception versus naturally conceived children to reach a consensus on the reasons for potential differences in outcomes between these two groups. IVF-conceived children have lower birthweights and higher peripheral fat, blood pressure and fasting glucose concentrations than controls. Growth, development and cognitive function in assisted-conception children are similar to controls. The absolute risk of imprinting disorders after assisted reproduction is less than 1%. A direct link between assisted reproduction and health-related outcomes in assisted-conception children could not be established. Women undergoing assisted reproduction are often older, increasing the chances of obtaining abnormal gametes that may cause deviations in outcomes between assisted-conception and naturally conceived children. However, after taking into account these factors, it is not clear to what extent poorer outcomes are due to the assisted reproduction procedures themselves. Large-scale, multicentre, prospective epidemiological studies are needed to investigate this further and to confirm long-term health consequences in assisted-conception children. Assisted reproduction treatment is a general term used to describe methods of achieving pregnancy by artificial means and includes IVF and sperm implantation. The effect of assisted reproduction treatment on the health of children born using these artificial methods is not fully understood. In April 2011, fertility research experts met to give presentations based on research in this area and to look carefully at the evidence

  12. The role of levosimendan in acute heart failure complicating acute coronary syndrome: A review and expert consensus opinion.

    PubMed

    Nieminen, Markku S; Buerke, Michael; Cohen-Solál, Alain; Costa, Susana; Édes, István; Erlikh, Alexey; Franco, Fatima; Gibson, Charles; Gorjup, Vojka; Guarracino, Fabio; Gustafsson, Finn; Harjola, Veli-Pekka; Husebye, Trygve; Karason, Kristjan; Katsytadze, Igor; Kaul, Sundeep; Kivikko, Matti; Marenzi, Giancarlo; Masip, Josep; Matskeplishvili, Simon; Mebazaa, Alexandre; Møller, Jacob E; Nessler, Jadwiga; Nessler, Bohdan; Ntalianis, Argyrios; Oliva, Fabrizio; Pichler-Cetin, Emel; Põder, Pentti; Recio-Mayoral, Alejandro; Rex, Steffen; Rokyta, Richard; Strasser, Ruth H; Zima, Endre; Pollesello, Piero

    2016-09-01

    Acute heart failure and/or cardiogenic shock are frequently triggered by ischemic coronary events. Yet, there is a paucity of randomized data on the management of patients with heart failure complicating acute coronary syndrome, as acute coronary syndrome and cardiogenic shock have frequently been defined as exclusion criteria in trials and registries. As a consequence, guideline recommendations are mostly driven by observational studies, even though these patients have a particularly poor prognosis compared to heart failure patients without signs of coronary artery disease. In acute heart failure, and especially in cardiogenic shock related to ischemic conditions, vasopressors and inotropes are used. However, both pathophysiological considerations and available clinical data suggest that these treatments may have disadvantageous effects. The inodilator levosimendan offers potential benefits due to a range of distinct effects including positive inotropy, restoration of ventriculo-arterial coupling, increases in tissue perfusion, and anti-stunning and anti-inflammatory effects. In clinical trials levosimendan improves symptoms, cardiac function, hemodynamics, and end-organ function. Adverse effects are generally less common than with other inotropic and vasoactive therapies, with the notable exception of hypotension. The decision to use levosimendan, in terms of timing and dosing, is influenced by the presence of pulmonary congestion, and blood pressure measurements. Levosimendan should be preferred over adrenergic inotropes as a first line therapy for all ACS-AHF patients who are under beta-blockade and/or when urinary output is insufficient after diuretics. Levosimendan can be used alone or in combination with other inotropic or vasopressor agents, but requires monitoring due to the risk of hypotension.

  13. Treating an Established Episode of Delirium in Palliative Care: Expert Opinion and Review of the Current Evidence Base With Recommendations for Future Development

    PubMed Central

    Pereira, José L.; Davis, Daniel H.J.; Currow, David C.; Meagher, David; Rabheru, Kiran; Wright, David; Bruera, Eduardo; Hartwick, Michael; Gagnon, Pierre R.; Gagnon, Bruno; Breitbart, William; Regnier, Laura; Lawlor, Peter G.

    2014-01-01

    Context Delirium is a highly prevalent complication in patients in palliative care settings, especially in the end-of-life context. Objectives To review the current evidence base for treating episodes of delirium in palliative care settings and propose a framework for future development. Methods We combined multidisciplinary input from delirium researchers and other purposely selected stakeholders at an international delirium study planning meeting. This was supplemented by a literature search of multiple databases and relevant reference lists to identify studies regarding therapeutic interventions for delirium. Results The context of delirium management in palliative care is highly variable. The standard management of a delirium episode includes the investigation of precipitating and aggravating factors followed by symptomatic treatment with drug therapy. However, the intensity of this management depends on illness trajectory and goals of care in addition to the local availability of both investigative modalities and therapeutic interventions. Pharmacologically, haloperidol remains the practice standard by consensus for symptomatic control. Dosing schedules are derived from expert opinion and various clinical practice guidelines as evidence-based data from palliative care settings are limited. The commonly used pharmacologic interventions for delirium in this population warrant evaluation in clinical trials to examine dosing and titration regimens, different routes of administration, and safety and efficacy compared with placebo. Conclusion Delirium treatment is multidimensional and includes the identification of precipitating and aggravating factors. For symptomatic management, haloperidol remains the practice standard. Further high-quality collaborative research investigating the appropriate treatment of this complex syndrome is needed. PMID:24480529

  14. Opinions on Fresh Produce Food Safety and Quality Standards by Fresh Produce Supply Chain Experts from the Global South and North.

    PubMed

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Van Boxstael, Sigrid; Nanyunja, Jessica; Jordaan, Danie; Luning, Pieternel; Uyttendaele, Mieke

    2015-10-01

    This study describes the results of an on-line survey of fresh produce supply chain experts who work with producers from the Global North (n = 41, 20 countries) and the Global South (n = 63, 29 countries). They expressed their opinion using 1 to 5 Likert scales on several items related to four types of food safety and quality standards and legislation: Codex Alimentarius standards, European Union legislation, national legislation, and private standards. The results reflect the different circumstances under which the Southern and Northern producers operate in relation to the local organization, regulation, and support of the sector; but they also indicate similar challenges, in particular, the challenge of private standards, which were perceived to demand a higher implementation effort than the other three types of standards. Private standards were also strongly perceived to exclude Southern and Northern small- and medium-scale producers from high-value markets, whereas European Union legislation was perceived to strongly exclude, in particular, small- and medium-scale Southern producers. The results further highlight concerns about costly control measures and third-party certification that are required by downstream buyers but that are mostly paid for by upstream suppliers. Food standards are seen in their dual role as a catalyst for implementation of structured food safety management systems on the one hand and as a nontariff barrier to trade on the other hand. The results of the survey also pointed up the advantages of enforcing food safety and food quality standards in terms of knowledge spillover to noncertified activities, increased revenues, and improved food safety of delivered produce. Survey results highlight the importance of technical assistance and support of producers by governments and producer cooperatives or trade associations in the implementation and certification of food standards, along with increased awareness of and training of individuals in

  15. Using Pooled Local Expert Opinions (PLEO) to Discern Patterns in Sightings of Live and Dead Manatees (Trichechus senegalensis, Link 1785) in Lower Sanaga Basin, Cameroon.

    PubMed

    Mayaka, Theodore B; Takoukam Kamla, Aristide; Self-Sullivan, Caryn

    2015-01-01

    We aimed at unveiling patterns in live and dead manatee sightings in the Lower Sanaga Basin, Cameroon. For this purpose, the expert opinions of 133 local fishers were collected during in-person interviews, distilled using categorical data analysis, and checked against scientific literature. The five main results are as follows: manatees were sighted averagely once a week in lakes, rivers, and the coast & estuaries, mostly in group sizes of 2-3; the odds of sighting live manatees (respectively dead manatees) decreased (respectively increased) from inland lakes to estuaries and the coast, via rivers; manatee carcasses were reported in all habitats, albeit more frequently in rivers; a distribution map based on fishers' reports show two manatee concentration areas: Lake Ossa and the Malimba-Mbiako section of River Sanaga; the number of manatees was perceived as increasing despite incidental and directed catches. Thus, our findings corroborate earlier assessments of the Lower Sanaga Basin as being a major manatee conservation area. Additionally, from these results and the literature, we identified three hypotheses about local manatee persistence: deep pools such as lakes offer year round sanctuaries, not just dry-season refugia; seasonality of specific habitat variables determine manatee occurrence patterns; and local variability in habitat encroachment mediate the meta-population dynamics of manatee in the Lower Sanaga Basin. Finally, we examine the implications for data requirements in light of the small ecological scale at which the surveyed fishers ply their trade. Thus, consonant with the Malawi principles for the ecosystem approach to management (www.cbd.int/ecosystem), we recommend collecting data preferably at landscape scale, through a participatory monitoring program that fully integrates scientific and traditional knowledge systems. This program should include, amongst others, a standardised necropsy protocol for collecting mortality and biological data

  16. Using Pooled Local Expert Opinions (PLEO) to Discern Patterns in Sightings of Live and Dead Manatees (Trichechus senegalensis, Link 1785) in Lower Sanaga Basin, Cameroon

    PubMed Central

    Mayaka, Theodore B.; Takoukam Kamla, Aristide; Self-Sullivan, Caryn

    2015-01-01

    We aimed at unveiling patterns in live and dead manatee sightings in the Lower Sanaga Basin, Cameroon. For this purpose, the expert opinions of 133 local fishers were collected during in-person interviews, distilled using categorical data analysis, and checked against scientific literature. The five main results are as follows: manatees were sighted averagely once a week in lakes, rivers, and the coast & estuaries, mostly in group sizes of 2-3; the odds of sighting live manatees (respectively dead manatees) decreased (respectively increased) from inland lakes to estuaries and the coast, via rivers; manatee carcasses were reported in all habitats, albeit more frequently in rivers; a distribution map based on fishers’ reports show two manatee concentration areas: Lake Ossa and the Malimba-Mbiako section of River Sanaga; the number of manatees was perceived as increasing despite incidental and directed catches. Thus, our findings corroborate earlier assessments of the Lower Sanaga Basin as being a major manatee conservation area. Additionally, from these results and the literature, we identified three hypotheses about local manatee persistence: deep pools such as lakes offer year round sanctuaries, not just dry-season refugia; seasonality of specific habitat variables determine manatee occurrence patterns; and local variability in habitat encroachment mediate the meta-population dynamics of manatee in the Lower Sanaga Basin. Finally, we examine the implications for data requirements in light of the small ecological scale at which the surveyed fishers ply their trade. Thus, consonant with the Malawi principles for the ecosystem approach to management (www.cbd.int/ecosystem), we recommend collecting data preferably at landscape scale, through a participatory monitoring program that fully integrates scientific and traditional knowledge systems. This program should include, amongst others, a standardised necropsy protocol for collecting mortality and biological data

  17. Recommendations for Risk Categorization and Prophylaxis of Invasive Fungal Diseases in Hematological Malignancies: A Critical Review of Evidence and Expert Opinion (TEO-4)

    PubMed Central

    Boğa, Can; Bolaman, Zahit; Çağırgan, Seçkin; Karadoğan, İhsan; Özcan, Mehmet Ali; Özkalemkaş, Fahir; Saba, Rabin; Sönmez, Mehmet; Şenol, Esin; Akan, Hamdi; Akova, Murat

    2015-01-01

    This is the last of a series of articles on invasive fungal infections prepared by opinion leaders in Turkey. The aim of these articles is to guide clinicians in managing invasive fungal diseases in hematological malignancies and stem cell transplantation based on the available best evidence in this field. The previous articles summarized the diagnosis and treatment of invasive fungal disease and this article aims to explain the risk categorization and guide the antifungal prophylaxis in invasive fungal disease. PMID:26316478

  18. Antibiotic therapy in the critically ill - expert opinion of the Intensive Care Medicine Scientific Subcommittee of the European Society of Anaesthesiology.

    PubMed

    Martin-Loeches, Ignacio; Leone, Marc; Madách, Krisztina; Martin, Claude; Einav, Sharon

    2017-04-01

    Antimicrobial treatment is the cornerstone of infection treatment, and the selection of appropriate antibiotic treatment for critically ill patients is challenging. Clinicians working with critically ill patients usually feel a greater obligation towards their patient than towards maintenance of the delicate ecological balance of prevalent microbiological threats and their resistance patterns. Although antibiotic overtreatment is a frequent phenomenon, patient outcomes need not be compromised when antibiotic treatment is driven by informed decision-making.At the 2016 Euro Anaesthesia Conference (London, UK), the European Society of Anaesthesia Intensive Care Scientific Subcommittee convened an expert panel on antibiotic therapy. This article summarises the main conclusions of the panel, namely the principles of antibiotic therapy that all physicians working with critically ill patients must know.

  19. Antibiotic therapy in critically ill patients: expert opinion of the European Society of Anaesthesia Intensive Care Scientific Subcommittee: A narrative review.

    PubMed

    Martin-Loeches, Ignacio; Leone, Marc; Madách, Krisztina; Martin, Claude; Einav, Sharon

    2017-01-30

    Antimicrobial treatment is the cornerstone of infection treatment, and the selection of appropriate antibiotic treatment for critically ill patients is challenging. Clinicians working with critically ill patients usually feel a greater obligation towards their patient than towards maintenance of the delicate ecological balance of prevalent microbiological threats and their resistance patterns. Although antibiotic overtreatment is a frequent phenomenon, patient outcomes need not be compromised when antibiotic treatment is driven by informed decision-making.At the 2016 Euro Anaesthesia Conference (London, UK), the European Society of Anaesthesia Intensive Care Scientific Subcommittee convened an expert panel on antibiotic therapy. This article summarises the main conclusions of the panel, namely the principles of antibiotic therapy that all physicians working with critically ill patients must know.

  20. 14th St. Gallen International Breast Cancer Conference 2015: Evidence, Controversies, Consensus – Primary Therapy of Early Breast Cancer: Opinions Expressed by German Experts

    PubMed Central

    Jackisch, Christian; Harbeck, Nadia; Huober, Jens; von Minckwitz, Gunter; Gerber, Bernd; Kreipe, Hans-Heinrich; Liedtke, Cornelia; Marschner, Norbert; Möbus, Volker; Scheithauer, Heike; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Thomssen, Christoph; Loibl, Sibylle; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Blohmer, Jens-Uwe; Costa, Serban-Dan; Decker, Thomas; Diel, Ingo; Fasching, Peter A.; Fehm, Tanja; Janni, Wolfgang; Lück, Hans-Joachim; Maass, Nicolai; Scharl, Anton; Untch, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Summary The key topics of this year's 14th St. Gallen Consensus Conference on the diagnosis and therapy of primary breast cancer were again questions about breast surgery and axillary surgery, radio-oncology and systemic therapy options in consideration of tumor biology, and the clinical application of multigene assays. This year, the consensus conference took place in Vienna. From a German perspective, it makes sense to substantiate the results of the vote of the international panel representing 19 countries in light of the updated national therapy recommendations of the AGO (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Gynäkologische Onkologie). Therefore, 14 German breast cancer experts, 3 of whom are members of the International St. Gallen Panel, have commented on the voting results of the St. Gallen Consensus Conference 2015 in relation to clinical routine in Germany. PMID:26557827

  1. Regulatory acceptance and use of 3R models for pharmaceuticals and chemicals: expert opinions on the state of affairs and the way forward.

    PubMed

    Schiffelers, Marie-Jeanne W A; Blaauboer, Bas J; Bakker, Wieger E; Beken, Sonja; Hendriksen, Coenraad F M; Koëter, Herman B W M; Krul, Cyrille

    2014-06-01

    Pharmaceuticals and chemicals are subjected to regulatory safety testing accounting for approximately 25% of laboratory animal use in Europe. This testing meets various objections and has led to the development of a range of 3R models to Replace, Reduce or Refine the animal models. However, these models must overcome many barriers before being accepted for regulatory risk management purposes. This paper describes the barriers and drivers and options to optimize this acceptance process as identified by two expert panels, one on pharmaceuticals and one on chemicals. To untangle the complex acceptance process, the multilevel perspective on technology transitions is applied. This perspective defines influences at the micro-, meso- and macro level which need alignment to induce regulatory acceptance of a 3R model. This paper displays that there are many similar mechanisms within both sectors that prevent 3R models from becoming accepted for regulatory risk assessment and management. Shared barriers include the uncertainty about the value of the new 3R models (micro level), the lack of harmonization of regulatory requirements and acceptance criteria (meso level) and the high levels of risk aversion (macro level). In optimizing the process commitment, communication, cooperation and coordination are identified as critical drivers.

  2. The Role of mTOR Inhibitors in the Treatment of Patients with Tuberous Sclerosis Complex: Evidence-based and Expert Opinions.

    PubMed

    Curatolo, Paolo; Bjørnvold, Marit; Dill, Patricia E; Ferreira, José Carlos; Feucht, Martha; Hertzberg, Christoph; Jansen, Anna; Jóźwiak, Sergiusz; Kingswood, J Christopher; Kotulska, Katarzyna; Macaya, Alfons; Moavero, Romina; Nabbout, Rima; Zonnenberg, Bernard A

    2016-04-01

    Tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) is a genetic disorder arising from mutations in the TSC1 or TSC2 genes. The resulting over-activation of the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) signalling pathway leaves patients with TSC susceptible to the growth of non-malignant tumours in multiple organs. Previously, surgery was the main therapeutic option for TSC. However, pharmacological therapy with mTOR inhibitors such as everolimus and sirolimus is now emerging as an alternate approach. Everolimus and sirolimus have already been shown to be effective in treating subependymal giant cell astrocytoma (SEGA) and renal angiomyolipoma (AML), and everolimus is currently being evaluated in treating TSC-related epilepsy. In November 2013 a group of European experts convened to discuss the current options and practical considerations for treating various manifestations of TSC. This article provides evidence-based recommendations for the treatment of SEGA, TSC-related epilepsy and renal AML, with a focus on where mTOR inhibitor therapy may be considered alongside other treatment options. Safety considerations regarding mTOR inhibitor therapy are also reviewed. With evidence of beneficial effects in neurological and non-neurological TSC manifestations, mTOR inhibitors may represent a systemic treatment for TSC.

  3. Anisotropic opinion dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neirotti, Juan

    2016-07-01

    We consider the process of opinion formation in a society of interacting agents, where there is a set B of socially accepted rules. In this scenario, we observed that agents, represented by simple feed-forward, adaptive neural networks, may have a conservative attitude (mostly in agreement with B ) or liberal attitude (mostly in agreement with neighboring agents) depending on how much their opinions are influenced by their peers. The topology of the network representing the interaction of the society's members is determined by a graph, where the agents' properties are defined over the vertexes and the interagent interactions are defined over the bonds. The adaptability of the agents allows us to model the formation of opinions as an online learning process, where agents learn continuously as new information becomes available to the whole society (online learning). Through the application of statistical mechanics techniques we deduced a set of differential equations describing the dynamics of the system. We observed that by slowly varying the average peer influence in such a way that the agents attitude changes from conservative to liberal and back, the average social opinion develops a hysteresis cycle. Such hysteretic behavior disappears when the variance of the social influence distribution is large enough. In all the cases studied, the change from conservative to liberal behavior is characterized by the emergence of conservative clusters, i.e., a closed knitted set of society members that follow a leader who agrees with the social status quo when the rule B is challenged.

  4. Anisotropic opinion dynamics.

    PubMed

    Neirotti, Juan

    2016-07-01

    We consider the process of opinion formation in a society of interacting agents, where there is a set B of socially accepted rules. In this scenario, we observed that agents, represented by simple feed-forward, adaptive neural networks, may have a conservative attitude (mostly in agreement with B) or liberal attitude (mostly in agreement with neighboring agents) depending on how much their opinions are influenced by their peers. The topology of the network representing the interaction of the society's members is determined by a graph, where the agents' properties are defined over the vertexes and the interagent interactions are defined over the bonds. The adaptability of the agents allows us to model the formation of opinions as an online learning process, where agents learn continuously as new information becomes available to the whole society (online learning). Through the application of statistical mechanics techniques we deduced a set of differential equations describing the dynamics of the system. We observed that by slowly varying the average peer influence in such a way that the agents attitude changes from conservative to liberal and back, the average social opinion develops a hysteresis cycle. Such hysteretic behavior disappears when the variance of the social influence distribution is large enough. In all the cases studied, the change from conservative to liberal behavior is characterized by the emergence of conservative clusters, i.e., a closed knitted set of society members that follow a leader who agrees with the social status quo when the rule B is challenged.

  5. Colleagues as Change Agents: How Department Networks and Opinion Leaders Influence Teaching at a Single Research University.

    PubMed

    Andrews, T C; Conaway, E P; Zhao, J; Dolan, E L

    2016-01-01

    Relationships with colleagues have the potential to be a source of support for faculty to make meaningful change in how they teach, but the impact of these relationships is poorly understood. We used a mixed-methods approach to investigate the characteristics of faculty who provide colleagues with teaching resources and facilitate change in teaching, how faculty influence one another. Our exploratory investigation was informed by social network theory and research on the impact of opinion leaders within organizations. We used surveys and interviews to examine collegial interactions about undergraduate teaching in life sciences departments at one research university. Each department included discipline-based education researchers (DBERs). Quantitative and qualitative analyses indicate that DBERs promote changes in teaching to a greater degree than other departmental colleagues. The influence of DBERs derives, at least partly, from a perception that they have unique professional expertise in education. DBERs facilitated change through coteaching, offering ready and approachable access to education research, and providing teaching training and mentoring. Faculty who had participated in a team based-teaching professional development program were also credited with providing more support for teaching than nonparticipants. Further research will be necessary to determine whether these results generalize beyond the studied institution.

  6. Colleagues as Change Agents: How Department Networks and Opinion Leaders Influence Teaching at a Single Research University

    PubMed Central

    Andrews, T. C.; Conaway, E. P.; Zhao, J.; Dolan, E. L.

    2016-01-01

    Relationships with colleagues have the potential to be a source of support for faculty to make meaningful change in how they teach, but the impact of these relationships is poorly understood. We used a mixed-methods approach to investigate the characteristics of faculty who provide colleagues with teaching resources and facilitate change in teaching, how faculty influence one another. Our exploratory investigation was informed by social network theory and research on the impact of opinion leaders within organizations. We used surveys and interviews to examine collegial interactions about undergraduate teaching in life sciences departments at one research university. Each department included discipline-based education researchers (DBERs). Quantitative and qualitative analyses indicate that DBERs promote changes in teaching to a greater degree than other departmental colleagues. The influence of DBERs derives, at least partly, from a perception that they have unique professional expertise in education. DBERs facilitated change through coteaching, offering ready and approachable access to education research, and providing teaching training and mentoring. Faculty who had participated in a team based–teaching professional development program were also credited with providing more support for teaching than nonparticipants. Further research will be necessary to determine whether these results generalize beyond the studied institution. PMID:27174582

  7. Public authority control strategy for opinion evolution in social networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Xi; Xiong, Xi; Zhang, Minghong; Li, Wei

    2016-08-01

    This paper addresses the need to deal with and control public opinion and rumors. Existing strategies to control public opinion include degree, random, and adaptive bridge control strategies. In this paper, we use the HK model to present a public opinion control strategy based on public authority (PA). This means utilizing the influence of expert or high authority individuals whose opinions we control to obtain the optimum effect in the shortest time possible and thus reach a consensus of public opinion. Public authority (PA) is only influenced by individuals' attributes (age, economic status, and education level) and not their degree distribution; hence, in this paper, we assume that PA complies with two types of public authority distribution (normal and power-law). According to the proposed control strategy, our experiment is based on random, degree, and public authority control strategies in three different social networks (small-world, scale-free, and random) and we compare and analyze the strategies in terms of convergence time (T), final number of controlled agents (C), and comprehensive efficiency (E). We find that different network topologies and the distribution of the PA in the network can influence the final controlling effect. While the effect of PA strategy differs in different network topology structures, all structures achieve comprehensive efficiency with any kind of public authority distribution in any network. Our findings are consistent with several current sociological phenomena and show that in the process of public opinion/rumor control, considerable attention should be paid to high authority individuals.

  8. Dynamical model for competing opinions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Souza, S. R.; Gonçalves, S.

    2012-05-01

    We propose an opinion model based on agents located at the vertices of a regular lattice. Each agent has an independent opinion (among an arbitrary, but fixed, number of choices) and its own degree of conviction. The latter changes every time two agents which have different opinions interact with each other. The dynamics leads to size distributions of clusters (made up of agents which have the same opinion and are located at contiguous spatial positions) which follow a power law, as long as the range of the interaction between the agents is not too short; i.e., the system self-organizes into a critical state. Short range interactions lead to an exponential cutoff in the size distribution and to spatial correlations which cause agents which have the same opinion to be closely grouped. When the diversity of opinions is restricted to two, a nonconsensus dynamic is observed, with unequal population fractions, whereas consensus is reached if the agents are also allowed to interact with those located far from them. The individual agents' convictions, the preestablished interaction range, and the locality of the interaction between a pair of agents (their neighborhood has no effect on the interaction) are the main characteristics which distinguish our model from previous ones.

  9. [Professional and ethical medical expert quality].

    PubMed

    Iveković, Renata

    2008-01-01

    The work of court experts, including those of medical profession, is ruled by Regulations on standing court experts. The Regulations determine requirements for performing the job of court expertise, rights and duties of court experts, awards and remuneration for their work. The ethical codex determines relation of experts to performance of expertise, to court and parties, to colleagues court experts and to the community. The expert must obey the rules on performance of the expertise, complete all his duties, protect respectability of all court experts, and justify trust of legal authorities. In relationship with the court, the expert must respond to court summons, give his finding and opinion, and come to hearing summons.

  10. Measuring Iranian women's sexual behaviors: Expert opinion

    PubMed Central

    Ghorashi, Zohreh; Merghati-Khoei, Effat; Yousefy, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    The cultural compatibility of sexually related instruments is problematic because the contexts from which the concepts and meanings were extracted may be significantly different from related contexts in a different society. This paper describes the instruments that have been used to assess sexual behaviors, primarily in Western contexts. Then, based on the instruments’ working definition of ‘sexual behavior’ and their theoretical frameworks, we will (1) discuss the applicability or cultural compatibility of existing instruments targeting women's sexual behaviors within an Iranian context, and (2) suggest criteria for sexually related tools applicable in Iranian settings. Iranian women's sexual scripts may compromise the existing instruments’ compatibility. Suggested criteria are as follows: understanding, language of sexuality, ethics and morality. Therefore, developing a culturally comprehensive measure that can adequately examine Iranian women's sexual behaviors is needed. PMID:25250346

  11. Turbiscan lab expert analysis of the stability of ethosomes and ultradeformable liposomes containing a bilayer fluidizing agent.

    PubMed

    Celia, Christian; Trapasso, Elena; Cosco, Donato; Paolino, Donatella; Fresta, Massimo

    2009-08-01

    The stability of vesicular drug carriers containing linoleic acid, as a model of bilayer fluidizing agent, was evaluated using a Turbiscan optical analyzer, an innovative analytical instrument able to determine the long-time stability of colloidal systems. Ethosomes and ultradeformable liposomes were prepared using Phospholipon 100G as the lecithin component, while ethanol and sodium cholate were used for the specific preparation of ethosomes and ultradeformable liposomes, respectively. The advantages of the Turbiscan optical analyzer are: (i) its ability to measure reversible (creaming and sedimentation) and irreversible (coalescence and segregation) destabilization phenomena directly in the sample without any dilution and (ii) to detect these phenomena much earlier and easier than other apparatuses. Turbiscan data showed that both colloidal vesicles demonstrate a good stability during the 3h of the experiment. No modification of Turbiscan backscattering profiles of colloidal suspensions occurred when different amounts of linoleic acid were used to prepare ethosomes and ultradeformable liposomes. No coalescence, sedimentation, flocculation or clarification occurred. The results were very encouraging and confirmed the fact that the Turbiscan optical analyzer can be used to study the stability of colloidal formulations even in the presence of deformable agents.

  12. The forensic expert witness--an issue of competency.

    PubMed

    Hiss, Jehuda; Freund, Maya; Kahana, Tzipi

    2007-05-24

    Scientists submitting expert opinions within the legal system are expected to be knowledgeable in the forensic aspects of their particular science, as well as to be ethical and unbiased. Scientists are seldom able to decline a request to provide an expert opinion in their field, even when their forensic expertise is minimal. The competence of scientists providing expert opinions in forensic cases is reviewed here. Three examples of the perils of uninformed "expertise" in forensic biology, medicine and anthropology are presented.

  13. Opinion: Mycopedagogy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dworkin, Craig

    2004-01-01

    A teacher at the university of Utah describes his opinion by citing examples of experimental, innovative, avant-garde, a number of literary traditions adopted in college classrooms. The advantages and the dangers of these being pedagogy are explained.

  14. School Construction Management: Expert Administrators Speak.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fickes, Michael

    2001-01-01

    Presents expert opinion on school construction management communication concerning educational needs, obtaining consensus among diverse groups, and envisioning what schools must offer in the future. Why furniture issues are also important is highlighted. (GR)

  15. How lawyers view psychiatric experts.

    PubMed

    Reid, William H; Skip Simpson, J D

    2012-11-01

    Good lawyers look for integrity in their expert consultants and expert witnesses. They need truthful, accurate information to help them assess and frame cases, win or settle them favorably, and/or withdraw when the case has little merit. Experts should be well qualified to review, interpret, and eventually testify credibly about their portions of the case. They should be able to work with lawyers in the lawyers' own arenas (e.g., courts, hearings) and to convey their opinions to others, such as juries, clearly and without unnecessary distractions.

  16. Filtering information from human experts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendel, Max B.; Sheridan, Thomas B.

    1989-01-01

    The authors propose a model, or filter, for debiasing opinions from multiple experts and combining them into a single consistent estimate of some variable of interest. A distinguishing feature of the approach consists of making the calibration of experts an integral part of filtering. This enables the filter to learn from previous experience with the experts. The theoretical development takes a Bayesian perspective, using de Finetti's (1964) notion of exchangeability. Experimental results with a preliminary computer implementation of the filter show that its estimates are better than those from comparable filters that do not involve calibration.

  17. The dynamics of opinion in hierarchical organizations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laguna, M. F.; Risau Gusman, S.; Abramson, G.; Gonçalves, S.; Iglesias, J. R.

    2005-06-01

    We study the mutual influence of authority and persuasion in the flow of opinions. We describe a simple model with no social mobility, where each agent belongs to a class in the hierarchy and has also a persuasion capability. Agents use the force of its persuasion to propagate their opinions; however a high-rank agent can also use its authority to impose its opinion on other ones. The model is studied analytically within a mean field approximation and by means of numerical simulations. In the case of a three authority level hierarchy the agreement between the two approaches is excellent. We obtain a phase diagram identifying the relative frequency of the prevailing opinions, and find that the stratum where the dominant opinion arises from is strongly dependent on the relative population of each hierarchy level. The time evolution shows that conflicting opinions polarize after a short transient.

  18. The CHESS method of forensic opinion formulation: striving to checkmate bias.

    PubMed

    Wills, Cheryl D

    2008-01-01

    Expert witnesses use various methods to render dispassionate opinions. Some forensic psychiatrists acknowledge bias up front; other experts use principles endorsed by the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law or other professional organizations. This article introduces CHESS, a systematic method for reducing bias in expert opinions. The CHESS method involves identifying a Claim or preliminary opinion; developing a Hierarchy of supporting evidence; examining the evidence for weaknesses or areas of Exposure; Studying and revising the claim and supporting evidence; and Synthesizing a revised opinion. Case examples illustrate how the CHESS method may help experts reduce bias while strengthening opinions. The method also helps experts prepare for court by reminding them to anticipate questions that may be asked during cross-examination. The CHESS method provides a framework for formulating, revising, and identifying limitations of opinions, which allows experts to incorporate neutrality into forensic opinions.

  19. Phase Transition in Opinion Diffusion in Social Networks

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-05-01

    the opinions of social agents diffuse in a network under a so-called hard-interaction model, in which the agents inter- act more strongly with...gent behavior. Index Terms— opinion diffusion , opinion dynamics, social net- works, phase transition, herding. 1. INTRODUCTION The study of the

  20. Landmark opinions

    SciTech Connect

    Julian Levy

    2007-08-15

    On April 2, 2007, the U.S. Supreme Court issued two landmark opinions affecting the regulation of air quality in the United States. The first addressed one facet of what constitutes a modification under New Source Review (NSR) and the second addressed the issue of global climate change, specifically carbon dioxide emissions. For this month's issue, EM invited five leaders in the field of air quality to give their perspectives on these court opinions to gauge what they might mean for future air quality regulations. Titles of the five features are: Two landmark interpretations of the Clean Air Act: EPA authority to regulate greenhouse gases and increases in annual emissions trigger NSR (pp 6-10); Court examines EPA's interpretation of the Clean Air Act (pp 11,13); New Jersey: a state's perspective (pp 14-15); Supreme Court delivers historic environmental rulings (pp 17-18); and an industry perspective on the Supreme Court rulings (pp 20-21).

  1. Are moral philosophers moral experts?

    PubMed

    Gesang, Bernward

    2010-05-01

    In this paper I examine the question of whether ethicists are moral experts. I call people moral experts if their moral judgments are correct with high probability and for the right reasons. I defend three theses, while developing a version of the coherence theory of moral justification based on the differences between moral and nonmoral experience: The answer to the question of whether there are moral experts depends on the answer to the question of how to justify moral judgments. Deductivism and the coherence theory both provide some support for the opinion that moral experts exist in some way. I maintain - within the framework of a certain kind of coherence theory - that moral philosophers are 'semi-experts'.

  2. Alternatives to the use of antimicrobial agents in pig production: A multi-country expert-ranking of perceived effectiveness, feasibility and return on investment.

    PubMed

    Postma, Merel; Stärk, Katharina D C; Sjölund, Marie; Backhans, Annette; Beilage, Elisabeth Grosse; Lösken, Svenja; Belloc, Catherine; Collineau, Lucie; Iten, Denise; Visschers, Vivianne; Nielsen, Elisabeth O; Dewulf, Jeroen

    2015-03-01

    Nineteen alternatives to antimicrobial agents were ranked on perceived effectiveness, feasibility and return on investment (ROI) from 0 (not effective, not feasible, no ROI) to 10 (fully effective, completely feasible, maximum ROI) by 111 pig health experts from Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland. The top 5 measures in terms of perceived effectiveness were (1) improved internal biosecurity, (2) improved external biosecurity, (3) improved climate/environmental conditions, (4) high health/Specific Pathogen Free/disease eradication and (5) increased vaccination. The top 5 measures in terms of perceived feasibility were (1) increased vaccination, (2) increased use of anti-inflammatory products, (3) improved water quality, (4) feed quality/optimization and (5) use of zinc/metals. The top 5 measures in terms of perceived ROI were (1) improved internal biosecurity, (2) zinc/metals, (3) diagnostics/action plan, (4) feed quality/optimization and (5) climate/environmental improvements. Univariate linear regression showed that veterinary practitioners rank internal biosecurity, vaccination, use of zinc/metals, feed quality optimization and climate/environmental on average highest, while researchers and professors focused more on increased use of diagnostics and action plans. Financial incentives/penalties ranked low in all countries. Belgian respondents ranked feed quality significantly lower compared to the German respondents while reduction of stocking density was ranked higher in Belgium compared to Denmark. Categorical Principal Component Analysis applied to the average ranking supported the finding that veterinary practitioners had a preference for more practical, common and already known alternatives. The results showed that improvements in biosecurity, increased use of vaccination, use of zinc/metals, feed quality improvement and regular diagnostic testing combined with a clear action plan were perceived to be the most promising alternatives to

  3. Expert Biogeographers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bednarski, Marsha

    2006-01-01

    This article describes an alternative way of teaching about biomes by having students become expert biogeographers. In order to become experts students need to first find out what a biogeographer does. Doing an online search lets students find out for themselves what the responsibilities are of people who work in this field. A good place to visit…

  4. How Expert Advice Influences Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Meshi, Dar; Biele, Guido; Korn, Christoph W.; Heekeren, Hauke R.

    2012-01-01

    People often use expert advice when making decisions in our society, but how we are influenced by this advice has yet to be understood. To address this, using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we provided expert and novice advice to participants during an estimation task. Participants reported that they valued expert advice more than novice advice, and activity in the ventral striatum correlated with this valuation, even before decisions with the advice were made. When using advice, participants compared their initial opinion to their advisor’s opinion. This comparison, termed the “opinion difference”, influenced advice utilization and was represented in reward-sensitive brain regions. Finally, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex integrated both the size of the opinion difference and the advisor’s level of expertise, and average activity in this area correlated with mean advice utilization across participants. Taken together, these findings provide neural evidence for how advice engenders behavioral change during the decision-making process. PMID:23185425

  5. Opinion evolution in open community

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Qiuhui; Qin, Yao; Xu, Yiqun; Tong, Mengfei; He, Mingfeng

    We consider a dynamic group composed with a constant number of people and the people will change periodically. Every member in the community owns a value of confidence — a mechanism that measures the agent’s coherence to his or her own attitude. Based on Cellular Automata, the opinions of all agents are synchronously updated. As long as the updating frequency and updating proportion are appropriate, the open system can reach a democracy-like steady state. The majority of agents in the community will hold the same opinion.

  6. Collective opinion formation on fluctuating networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ngampruetikorn, Vudtiwat; Stephens, Greg

    Thanks to the advent of online social networks, not only are we more connected than ever but we are also able to design and maintain our own social networks. An insight into this phenomenon will be key to understanding modern societies. To this end, we argue that active network maintenance exposes individuals to selective exposure (preference for agreeing information sources) and we explore how this could affect the structure of social networks and collective opinion formation. More technically, we investigate opinion dynamics on a complex network with fast stochastic rewiring. We show that selective exposure while inducing segregation of agents with different opinions, stabilises consensus state regardless of opinion update rules. We argue further that selective exposure can lead to a shorter time to consensus. The time to consensus has non-trivial dependence on the magnitude of selective exposure. Moreover, we find for some opinion updating rules, selective exposure can increase the lifetime of opinion segregation (polarisation of opinions).

  7. Expert Seeker

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fernandez, Becerra

    2003-01-01

    Expert Seeker is a computer program of the knowledge-management-system (KMS) type that falls within the category of expertise-locator systems. The main goal of the KMS system implemented by Expert Seeker is to organize and distribute knowledge of who are the domain experts within and without a given institution, company, or other organization. The intent in developing this KMS was to enable the re-use of organizational knowledge and provide a methodology for querying existing information (including structured, semistructured, and unstructured information) in a way that could help identify organizational experts. More specifically, Expert Seeker was developed to make it possible, by use of an intranet, to do any or all of the following: Assist an employee in identifying who has the skills needed for specific projects and to determine whether the experts so identified are available. Assist managers in identifying employees who may need training opportunities. Assist managers in determining what expertise is lost when employees retire or otherwise leave. Facilitate the development of new ways of identifying opportunities for innovation and minimization of duplicated efforts. Assist employees in achieving competitive advantages through the application of knowledge-management concepts and related systems. Assist external organizations in requesting speakers for specific engagements or determining from whom they might be able to request help via electronic mail. Help foster an environment of collaboration for rapid development in today's environment, in which it is increasingly necessary to assemble teams of experts from government, universities, research laboratories, and industries, to quickly solve problems anytime, anywhere. Make experts more visible. Provide a central repository of information about employees, including information that, heretofore, has typically not been captured by the human-resources systems (e.g., information about past projects, patents, or

  8. Weighing In: The Taste-Engineering Frame in Obesity Expert Discourse

    PubMed Central

    Zimmerman, Frederick J.; Gilliam, Franklin D.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. We sought expert opinion on the problems with 2 dominant obesity-prevention discourse frames—personal responsibility and the environment—and examined alternative frames for understanding and addressing obesity. Methods. We conducted 60-minute, semistructured interviews with 15 US-based obesity experts. We manually coded and entered interview transcripts into software, generating themes and subthematic areas that captured the debate’s essence. Results. Although the environmental frame is the dominant model used in communications with the public and policymakers, several experts found that communicating key messages within this frame was difficult because of the enormity of the obesity problem. A subframe of the environmental frame—the taste-engineering frame—identifies food industry strategies to influence the overconsumption of certain foods and beverages. This emerging frame deconstructs the environmental frame so that causal attributes and responsible agents are more easily identifiable and proposed policies and public health interventions more salient. Conclusions. Expert interviews are an invaluable resource for understanding how experts use frames in discussing their work and in conversations with the public and policymakers. Future empirical studies testing the effectiveness of the taste-engineering frame on public opinion and support for structural-level health policies are needed. PMID:25602888

  9. Future Challenges in Higher Education--Bologna Experts' Community Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yemini, Miri

    2012-01-01

    This work presents results from systematic analysis of the challenges for the future of higher education in European and neighboring countries as it was extracted from the Bologna experts and Higher Education Reform experts' opinions. Opinions of more than 100 experts from 35 countries were documented and analyzed. Significant differences in the…

  10. Prediction of collective opinion in consensus formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hou, Lei; Liu, Jianguo; Pan, Xue; Song, Wen-Jun; Li, Xu-Dong

    2014-12-01

    In the consensus formation dynamics, the effect of leaders and interventions have been widely studied for it has many applications such as in politics and commerce. However, the problem is how to know if it is necessary for one to make an intervention. In this paper, we theoretically propose a method for predicting the tendency and final state of collective opinion. By giving each agent a conviction ci which measures the ability to insist on his opinion, we present an opinion formation model in which agents with high convictions naturally show up properties of the opinion leaders. Results reveal that, although each agent initially gets an opinion evenly distributed in the range [-1, 1], the collective opinion of the steady-state may deviate to the positive or negative direction because of the initial bias of the leaders' opinions. We further get the correlation coefficient of the linear relationship between the collective opinion and the initial bias according to both the experimental and theoretical analysis. Thus, we could predict the final state at the very beginning of the dynamic only if we get the opinions of a small portion of the population. The prediction would afford us more time and opportunities to make reactions and interventions.

  11. The Same Middle East Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) yet Different Outbreak Patterns and Public Health Impacts on the Far East Expert Opinion from the Rapid Response Team of the Republic of Korea.

    PubMed

    2015-12-01

    A Middle East Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak, the largest outbreak outside the Middle East in 2012, occurred in the Republic of Korea and resulted in a large number of cases, with 186 infected people, including 38 deaths. A Rapid Response Team (RRT) was appointed after a request from the Korean government on June 8, 2015 calling for specialists to manage and control the MERS-CoV outbreak. This report presents the opinion of the RRT who worked to manage this healthcare-associated MERS-CoV outbreak in Korea.

  12. Agents.

    PubMed

    Chambers, David W

    2002-01-01

    Although health care is inherently an economic activity, it is inadequately described as a market process. An alternative, grounded in organizational economic theory, is to view professionals and many others as agents, contracted to advance the best interests of their principals (patients). This view untangles some of the ethical conflicts in dentistry. It also helps identify major controllable costs in dentistry and suggests that dentists can act as a group to increase or decrease agency costs, primarily by controlling the bad actors who damage the value of all dentists.

  13. Opinion Dynamics with Confirmation Bias

    PubMed Central

    Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Galstyan, Aram

    2014-01-01

    Background Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical research of this phenomenon has mainly focused on its economic implications possibly missing its potential connections with broader notions of cognitive science. Methodology/Principal Findings We formulate a (non-Bayesian) model for revising subjective probabilistic opinion of a confirmationally-biased agent in the light of a persuasive opinion. The revision rule ensures that the agent does not react to persuasion that is either far from his current opinion or coincides with it. We demonstrate that the model accounts for the basic phenomenology of the social judgment theory, and allows to study various phenomena such as cognitive dissonance and boomerang effect. The model also displays the order of presentation effect–when consecutively exposed to two opinions, the preference is given to the last opinion (recency) or the first opinion (primacy) –and relates recency to confirmation bias. Finally, we study the model in the case of repeated persuasion and analyze its convergence properties. Conclusions The standard Bayesian approach to probabilistic opinion revision is inadequate for describing the observed phenomenology of persuasion process. The simple non-Bayesian model proposed here does agree with this phenomenology and is capable of reproducing a spectrum of effects observed in psychology: primacy-recency phenomenon, boomerang effect and cognitive dissonance. We point out several limitations of the model that should motivate its future development. PMID:25007078

  14. A comprehensive review of topical hemostatic agents: efficacy and recommendations for use.

    PubMed

    Achneck, Hardean E; Sileshi, Bantayehu; Jamiolkowski, Ryan M; Albala, David M; Shapiro, Mark L; Lawson, Jeffrey H

    2010-02-01

    Since ancient times we have attempted to facilitate hemostasis by application of topical agents. In the last decade, the number of different effective hemostatic agents has increased drastically. In order for the modern surgeon to successfully choose the right agent at the right time, it is essential to understand the mechanism of action, efficacy and possible adverse events as they relate to each agent. In this article we provide a comprehensive review of the most commonly used hemostatic agents, subcategorized as physical agents, absorbable agents, biologic agents, and synthetic agents. We also evaluate novel hemostatic dressings and their application in the current era. Furthermore, wholesale acquisition prices for hospitals in the United States are provided to aid in cost analysis. We conclude with an expert opinion on which agent to use under different scenarios.

  15. Balancer effects in opinion dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheon, Taksu; Morimoto, Jun

    2016-01-01

    We introduce a novel type of contrarian agent, the balancer, to the Galam model of opinion dynamics, which features group-majority update, in order to account for the existence of social skepticism over one-sidedness. We find that, along with majoritarian floaters and single-sided inflexibles, the inclusion of balancers, who normally act as floaters but oppose inflexibles in their presence, brings about the emergence of a critical point on parametric plane of the dynamical system. Around the critical point, three distinct phases of opinion dynamics separated by discontinuous changes are found.

  16. An opinion diffusion model with decision-making groups: The influence of the opinion's acceptability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Zhichao; Xiong, Yang; Xu, Yiwen

    2016-11-01

    An opinion dynamic model with decision-making groups was proposed to study the process of adopting new opinions or ideas by individuals. The opinion's acceptability is introduced to distinguish the general character of different opinions. The simulation results on a free-scale network demonstrate that when two opinions have similar acceptability, the opinion supported by more decision-making groups in the beginning will eventually win the support of more agents, whereas an opinion supported by fewer decision-making groups in the beginning may be supported by the majority at the end only if it has better acceptability, and if the tolerance threshold of the society is higher than a specific value.

  17. 29 CFR 18.701 - Opinion testimony by lay witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Opinion testimony by lay witnesses. 18.701 Section 18.701 Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE FOR ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS... Opinion testimony by lay witnesses. If the witness is not testifying as an expert, the witness'...

  18. Expert judgment and expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Mumpower, J.; Phillips, L.D.; Renn, O.; Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1987-01-01

    This volume collects researchers from the fields of psychology, decision analysis, and artificial intelligence. The purposes were to assess similarities, differences, and complementarities among the three approaches to the study of expert judgment; to evaluate their relative strengths and weaknesses; and to propose profitable linkages between them. Each of the papers in the present volume is directed toward one or more of these goals.

  19. Legal Decisions and Opinions in Pollution Cases

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hills, John P.

    1976-01-01

    When dealing with the "frontier of scientific knowledge" and questions of public health, United States courts are waiving traditional burdens of proof, giving increased weight to expert opinions and/or lowering their standard of necessary proof. Recent cases involving asbestos, pesticides, lead in gasoline, and vinyl chlorides are discussed. (BT)

  20. Choice Shift in Opinion Network Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gabbay, Michael

    Choice shift is a phenomenon associated with small group dynamics whereby group discussion causes group members to shift their opinions in a more extreme direction so that the mean post-discussion opinion exceeds the mean pre-discussion opinion. Also known as group polarization, choice shift is a robust experimental phenomenon and has been well-studied within social psychology. In opinion network models, shifts toward extremism are typically produced by the presence of stubborn agents at the extremes of the opinion axis, whose opinions are much more resistant to change than moderate agents. However, we present a model in which choice shift can arise without the assumption of stubborn agents; the model evolves member opinions and uncertainties using coupled nonlinear differential equations. In addition, we briefly describe the results of a recent experiment conducted involving online group discussion concerning the outcome of National Football League games are described. The model predictions concerning the effects of network structure, disagreement level, and team choice (favorite or underdog) are in accord with the experimental results. This research was funded by the Office of Naval Research and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

  1. [Guideline (S2k, AWMF) of the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Pneumologie und Beatmungsmedizin and the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Arbeitsmedizin und Umweltmedizin "Diagnostics and Expert Opinion in the Occupational Disease No. 4101 Silicosis (Including Coal Worker's Pneumoconiosis)"].

    PubMed

    Baur, X; Heger, M; Bohle, R M; Hering, K G; Hofmann-Preiß, K; Nowak, D; Tannapfel, A; Teschler, H; Voshaar, T; Kraus, T

    2016-12-01

    During the last 1.5 years an update of the guideline on silicosis was made by an interdisciplinary working group. New medical and scientific knowledge and the experience in expert opinion practice were taken into account.By preparing the initial guideline in 2010 standardization of diagnostics and adaption of the "Moers convention" which was not based on medical knowledge was in the focus, whereas the current update deals with fine emendation and extension, especially of the compensation rate (adaption with the Reichenhall recommendation).The diagnosis of silicosis (including mixed dust pneumoconiosis) is based on a detailed occupational history, and predominantly on the typical radiological findings. However, at initial diagnosis the standardized LD-HRCT takes an important role because of its high sensitivity and specificity. Exceptional cases are those with characteristic findings in chest X-ray follow-up. Correspondingly, it is mentioned in the guideline: "The standardized appraisal of the Low-Dose-Volume HRCT requires application of the CT classification (ICOERD, International Classification of Occupational and Environmental Respiratory diseases). In order to diagnose silicosis in CT scan opacities with sharp borders in both central upper lung fields and their circumferencies have to be documented. By comparing with ILO standard radiographs at least profusion category 1 in the right and left upper lung fields has to be reached (total profusion category 2)."The pathologic minimal requirement for the diagnosis of silicosis which has undergone controversial discussion has now also been defined. Corresponding to Hnizdo et al. 2000 it is now mentioned: "Finding of less than 5 silicotic granuloma per lung lobe by palpation is regarded as insignificant." This is a convention and not a threshold based on detailed medical scientific and statistical studies; it is based on extended experience in the South African gold mines.This guideline also deals with silicotic hilar

  2. Explosion probability of unexploded ordnance: expert beliefs.

    PubMed

    MacDonald, Jacqueline Anne; Small, Mitchell J; Morgan, M G

    2008-08-01

    This article reports on a study to quantify expert beliefs about the explosion probability of unexploded ordnance (UXO). Some 1,976 sites at closed military bases in the United States are contaminated with UXO and are slated for cleanup, at an estimated cost of $15-140 billion. Because no available technology can guarantee 100% removal of UXO, information about explosion probability is needed to assess the residual risks of civilian reuse of closed military bases and to make decisions about how much to invest in cleanup. This study elicited probability distributions for the chance of UXO explosion from 25 experts in explosive ordnance disposal, all of whom have had field experience in UXO identification and deactivation. The study considered six different scenarios: three different types of UXO handled in two different ways (one involving children and the other involving construction workers). We also asked the experts to rank by sensitivity to explosion 20 different kinds of UXO found at a case study site at Fort Ord, California. We found that the experts do not agree about the probability of UXO explosion, with significant differences among experts in their mean estimates of explosion probabilities and in the amount of uncertainty that they express in their estimates. In three of the six scenarios, the divergence was so great that the average of all the expert probability distributions was statistically indistinguishable from a uniform (0, 1) distribution-suggesting that the sum of expert opinion provides no information at all about the explosion risk. The experts' opinions on the relative sensitivity to explosion of the 20 UXO items also diverged. The average correlation between rankings of any pair of experts was 0.41, which, statistically, is barely significant (p= 0.049) at the 95% confidence level. Thus, one expert's rankings provide little predictive information about another's rankings. The lack of consensus among experts suggests that empirical studies

  3. Discovering opinion leaders for medical topics using news articles

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Rapid identification of subject experts for medical topics helps in improving the implementation of discoveries by speeding the time to market drugs and aiding in clinical trial recruitment, etc. Identifying such people who influence opinion through social network analysis is gaining prominence. In this work, we explore how to combine named entity recognition from unstructured news articles with social network analysis to discover opinion leaders for a given medical topic. Methods We employed a Conditional Random Field algorithm to extract three categories of entities from health-related new articles: Person, Organization and Location. We used the latter two to disambiguate polysemy and synonymy for the person names, used simple rules to identify the subject experts, and then applied social network analysis techniques to discover the opinion leaders among them based on their media presence. A network was created by linking each pair of subject experts who are mentioned together in an article. The social network analysis metrics (including centrality metrics such as Betweenness, Closeness, Degree and Eigenvector) are used for ranking the subject experts based on their power in information flow. Results We extracted 734,204 person mentions from 147,528 news articles related to obesity from January 1, 2007 through July 22, 2010. Of these, 147,879 mentions have been marked as subject experts. The F-score of extracting person names is 88.5%. More than 80% of the subject experts who rank among top 20 in at least one of the metrics could be considered as opinion leaders in obesity. Conclusion The analysis of the network of subject experts with media presence revealed that an opinion leader might have fewer mentions in the news articles, but a high network centrality measure and vice-versa. Betweenness, Closeness and Degree centrality measures were shown to supplement frequency counts in the task of finding subject experts. Further, opinion leaders missed in

  4. Correlation between information diffusion and opinion evolution on social media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiong, Fei; Liu, Yun; Zhang, Zhenjiang

    2014-12-01

    Information diffusion and opinion evolution are often treated as two independent processes. Opinion models assume the topic reaches each agent and agents initially have their own ideas. In fact, the processes of information diffusion and opinion evolution often intertwine with each other. Whether the influence between these two processes plays a role in the system state is unclear. In this paper, we collected more than one million real data from a well-known social platform, and analysed large-scale user diffusion behaviour and opinion formation. We found that user inter-event time follows a two-scaling power-law distribution with two different power exponents. Public opinion stabilizes quickly and evolves toward the direction of convergence, but the consensus state is prevented by a few opponents. We propose a three-state opinion model accompanied by information diffusion. Agents form and exchange their opinions during information diffusion. Conversely, agents' opinions also influence their diffusion actions. Simulations show that the model with a correlation of the two processes produces similar statistical characteristics as empirical results. A fast epidemic process drives individual opinions to converge more obviously. Unlike previous epidemic models, the number of infected agents does not always increase with the update rate, but has a peak with an intermediate value of the rate.

  5. Public Opinion in America.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Monroe, Alan D.

    The purposes of this book are to summarize and analyze the nature of public opinion in contemporary America and to examine the implications of that nature for the possibility of a functioning democracy. Material in the four sections covers the following topics: "The Study of Public Opinion: Political Theory and Methodology"--opinions and…

  6. Opinion Integration and Summarization

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lu, Yue

    2011-01-01

    As Web 2.0 applications become increasingly popular, more and more people express their opinions on the Web in various ways in real time. Such wide coverage of topics and abundance of users make the Web an extremely valuable source for mining people's opinions about all kinds of topics. However, since the opinions are usually expressed as…

  7. 37 CFR 41.158 - Expert testimony; tests and data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... Cases § 41.158 Expert testimony; tests and data. (a) Expert testimony that does not disclose the underlying facts or data on which the opinion is based is entitled to little or no weight. Testimony on... data. 41.158 Section 41.158 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND...

  8. 37 CFR 41.158 - Expert testimony; tests and data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... Cases § 41.158 Expert testimony; tests and data. (a) Expert testimony that does not disclose the underlying facts or data on which the opinion is based is entitled to little or no weight. Testimony on... data. 41.158 Section 41.158 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND...

  9. Social Work Expert Testimony Regarding Mitigation in Capital Sentencing Proceedings.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrews, Arlene Bowers

    1991-01-01

    Notes that, during sentencing phase of capital trial, social worker can have potentially powerful influence on proceedings by presenting comprehensive, reliable social history, and expert opinion based on accepted theory and research regarding human behavior in social environment. Reviews social worker's role as expert witness, ethical issues,…

  10. Experts' Views Regarding the Conceptualization of Narcissism.

    PubMed

    Ackerman, Robert A; Hands, Aaron J; Donnellan, M Brent; Hopwood, Christopher J; Witt, Edward A

    2016-06-20

    There is debate over the definition of narcissism across social/personality and clinical psychology. The current article aims to quantify the level of disagreement by measuring experts' opinions concerning the attributes most central to narcissism. Accordingly, we developed a comprehensive list of attributes associated with narcissism and had 49 self-identified experts (among them 17 women, 23 psychologists from clinical psychology and 22 from social/personality psychology) rate these characteristics and provide their opinions on several issues related to the conceptualization of narcissism. Experts generally believe that the grandiose features of narcissism are more central than the vulnerable features. However, differences between clinical and social/personality psychologists were evident, especially regarding the relevance of self-esteem. Given the results, we suggest that researchers specify the kind of narcissism being assessed in a given study and consider using assessments of the full range of narcissistic features in future research to provide a more comprehensive perspective on the construct.

  11. Multinational evidence-based recommendations for the use of methotrexate in rheumatic disorders with a focus on rheumatoid arthritis: integrating systematic literature research and expert opinion of a broad international panel of rheumatologists in the 3E Initiative

    PubMed Central

    Visser, K; Katchamart, W; Loza, E; Martinez-Lopez, J A; Salliot, C; Trudeau, J; Bombardier, C; Carmona, L; van der Heijde, D; Bijlsma, J W J; Boumpas, D T; Canhao, H; Edwards, C J; Hamuryudan, V; Kvien, T K; Leeb, B F; Martín-Mola, E M; Mielants, H; Müller-Ladner, U; Murphy, G; Østergaard, M; Pereira, I A; Ramos-Remus, C; Valentini, G; Zochling, J; Dougados, M

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: To develop evidence-based recommendations for the use of methotrexate in daily clinical practice in rheumatic disorders. Methods: 751 rheumatologists from 17 countries participated in the 3E (Evidence, Expertise, Exchange) Initiative of 2007–8 consisting of three separate rounds of discussions and Delphi votes. Ten clinical questions concerning the use of methotrexate in rheumatic disorders were formulated. A systematic literature search in Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library and 2005–7 American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism meeting abstracts was conducted. Selected articles were systematically reviewed and the evidence was appraised according to the Oxford levels of evidence. Each country elaborated a set of national recommendations. Finally, multinational recommendations were formulated and agreement among the participants and the potential impact on their clinical practice was assessed. Results: A total of 16 979 references was identified, of which 304 articles were included in the systematic reviews. Ten multinational key recommendations on the use of methotrexate were formulated. Nine recommendations were specific for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), including the work-up before initiating methotrexate, optimal dosage and route, use of folic acid, monitoring, management of hepatotoxicity, long-term safety, mono versus combination therapy and management in the perioperative period and before/during pregnancy. One recommendation concerned methotrexate as a steroid-sparing agent in other rheumatic diseases. Conclusions: Ten recommendations for the use of methotrexate in daily clinical practice focussed on RA were developed, which are evidence based and supported by a large panel of rheumatologists, enhancing their validity and practical use. PMID:19033291

  12. Social opinion dynamics is not chaotic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lim, Chjan; Zhang, Weituo

    2016-08-01

    Motivated by the research on social opinion dynamics over large and dense networks, a general framework for verifying the monotonicity property of multi-agent dynamics is introduced. This allows a derivation of sociologically meaningful sufficient conditions for monotonicity that are tailor-made for social opinion dynamics, which typically have high nonlinearity. A direct consequence of monotonicity is that social opinion dynamics is nonchaotic. A key part of this framework is the definition of a partial order relation that is suitable for a large class of social opinion dynamics such as the generalized naming games. Comparisons are made to previous techniques to verify monotonicity. Using the results obtained, we extend many of the consequences of monotonicity to this class of social dynamics, including several corollaries on their asymptotic behavior, such as global convergence to consensus and tipping points of a minority fraction of zealots or leaders.

  13. Survival of extreme opinions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsu, Jiann-wien; Huang, Ding-wei

    2009-12-01

    We study the survival of extreme opinions in various processes of consensus formation. All the opinions are treated equally and subjected to the same rules of changing. We investigate three typical models to reach a consensus in each case: (A) personal influence, (B) influence from surroundings, and (C) influence to surroundings. Starting with uniformly distributed random opinions, our calculated results show that the extreme opinions can survive in both models (A) and (B), but not in model (C). We obtain a conclusion that both personal influence and passive adaptation to the environment are not sufficient enough to eradicate all the extreme opinions. Only the active persuasion to change the surroundings eliminates the extreme opinions completely.

  14. Administering ziconotide and monitoring patients treated with ziconotide: expert opinions.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, Alisia A; Sapienza-Crawford, Anne J; Hanley, Kari L; Lokey, Kristi J; Wells, Linda; McDowell, Gladstone C; Stanton-Hicks, Michael

    2013-09-01

    Some patients with chronic pain who are intolerant of or refractory to treatment with systemic analgesics may benefit from intrathecal therapy. Ziconotide is the first nonopioid analgesic approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration for intrathecal administration. Several randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trials have demonstrated the efficacy and safety of ziconotide. However, the maximum recommended dosing and titration schedule provided in the prescribing information may be too aggressive for some patients, and experience has demonstrated that ziconotide is better tolerated with slower titration to a lower maximum dose. Efficacy can be assessed by an evaluation of changes in pain, functionality, and quality of life. Cognitive adverse events may be subtle; therefore, it is important that health care professionals not only monitor patients for signs and symptoms of cognitive adverse events, but also teach family members how to do the same. Careful patient assessment and monitoring can help optimize the potential benefit from treatment with ziconotide.

  15. The Delphi Method: Gathering Expert Opinion in Religious Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baumfield, Vivienne M.; Conroy, James C.; Davis, Robert A.; Lundie, David C.

    2012-01-01

    The "Does Religious Education work?" project is part of the Religion and Society programme funded by two major research councils in the UK. It sets out to track the trajectory of Religious Education (RE) in secondary schools in the UK from the aims and intentions represented in policy through its enactment in classroom practice to the…

  16. 37 CFR 104.23 - Expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    .... 104.23 Section 104.23 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE... testimony in a legal proceeding not involving the United States, the testimony, if otherwise proper, shall be limited to facts within the personal knowledge of the employee. Employees, with or...

  17. Expert opinion: diagnosis and treatment of proximal hamstring tendinopathy

    PubMed Central

    Lempainen, Lasse; Johansson, Kristian; Banke, Ingo J.; Ranne, Juha; Mäkelä, Keijo; Sarimo, Janne; Niemi, Pekka; Orava, Sakari

    2015-01-01

    Summary Background: proximal hamstring tendinopathy (PHT) is a disabilitating disease often causing underperformance in the athletically demanding patients. The main symptom of PHT is lower gluteal pain especially during running or while prolonged sitting. Mainly affecting athletically active individuals, PHT is a considerable challenge for treating health care professionals. Purpose: this paper aims to concisely present the literature on PHT to guide health care professionals treating these patients and doing research on the subject. Methods: we reviewed the literature on PHT through literature search of scientific journal databases. Conclusions: as a tendinopathic pathology, it is a rather recently discovered exertion injury. As with other chronic tendon overuse injuries, current treatment strategies are unspecific with uncertain outcomes due to the unknown etiology of the tendon degeneration. Diagnostic features as well as both operative and non-operative treatments are evaluated from a clinical perspective, providing up to date information for clinicians and sports medicine therapists dealing with hamstring problems. Level of evidence: V. PMID:25878983

  18. Expert opinions and scientific evidence for colonoscopy key performance indicators

    PubMed Central

    Rees, Colin J; Bevan, Roisin; Zimmermann-Fraedrich, Katharina; Rutter, Matthew D; Rex, Douglas; Dekker, Evelien; Ponchon, Thierry; Bretthauer, Michael; Regula, Jaroslaw; Saunders, Brian; Hassan, Cesare; Bourke, Michael J; Rösch, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Colonoscopy is a widely performed procedure with procedural volumes increasing annually throughout the world. Many procedures are now performed as part of colorectal cancer screening programmes. Colonoscopy should be of high quality and measures of this quality should be evidence based. New UK key performance indicators and quality assurance standards have been developed by a working group with consensus agreement on each standard reached. This paper reviews the scientific basis for each of the quality measures published in the UK standards. PMID:27802153

  19. Simplified Expert Elicitation Procedure for Risk Assessment of Operating Events

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; David Gertman; Jeffrey Joe; Julie Marble; William Galyean; Larry Blackwood; Harold Blackman

    2005-06-01

    This report describes a simplified, tractable, and usable procedure within the US Nuclear Regulator Commission (NRC) for seeking expert opinion and judgment. The NRC has increased efforts to document the reliability and risk of nuclear power plants (NPPs) through Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) models. The Significance Determination Process (SDP) and Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) programs at the NRC utilize expert judgment on the probability of failure, human error, and the operability of equipment in cases where otherwise insufficient operational data exist to make meaningful estimates. In the past, the SDP and ASP programs informally sought the opinion of experts inside and outside the NRC. This document represents a formal, documented procedure to take the place of informal expert elicitation. The procedures outlined in this report follow existing formal expert elicitation methodologies, but are streamlined as appropriate to the degree of accuracy required and the schedule for producing SDP and ASP analyses.

  20. Techniques for capturing expert knowledge - An expert systems/hypertext approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lafferty, Larry; Taylor, Greg; Schumann, Robin; Evans, Randy; Koller, Albert M., Jr.

    1990-01-01

    The knowledge-acquisition strategy developed for the Explosive Hazards Classification (EHC) Expert System is described in which expert systems and hypertext are combined, and broad applications are proposed. The EHC expert system is based on rapid prototyping in which primary knowledge acquisition from experts is not emphasized; the explosive hazards technical bulletin, technical guidance, and minimal interviewing are used to develop the knowledge-based system. Hypertext is used to capture the technical information with respect to four issues including procedural, materials, test, and classification issues. The hypertext display allows the integration of multiple knowlege representations such as clarifications or opinions, and thereby allows the performance of a broad range of tasks on a single machine. Among other recommendations, it is suggested that the integration of hypertext and expert systems makes the resulting synergistic system highly efficient.

  1. Dynamics of bounded confidence opinion in heterogeneous social networks: Concord against partial antagonism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurmyshev, Evguenii; Juárez, Héctor A.; González-Silva, Ricardo A.

    2011-08-01

    Bounded confidence models of opinion dynamics in social networks have been actively studied in recent years, in particular, opinion formation and extremism propagation along with other aspects of social dynamics. In this work, after an analysis of limitations of the Deffuant-Weisbuch (DW) bounded confidence, relative agreement model, we propose the mixed model that takes into account two psychological types of individuals. Concord agents (C-agents) are friendly people; they interact in a way that their opinions always get closer. Agents of the other psychological type show partial antagonism in their interaction (PA-agents). Opinion dynamics in heterogeneous social groups, consisting of agents of the two types, was studied on different social networks: Erdös-Rényi random graphs, small-world networks and complete graphs. Limit cases of the mixed model, pure C- and PA-societies, were also studied. We found that group opinion formation is, qualitatively, almost independent of the topology of networks used in this work. Opinion fragmentation, polarization and consensus are observed in the mixed model at different proportions of PA- and C-agents, depending on the value of initial opinion tolerance of agents. As for the opinion formation and arising of “dissidents”, the opinion dynamics of the C-agents society was found to be similar to that of the DW model, except for the rate of opinion convergence. Nevertheless, mixed societies showed dynamics and bifurcation patterns notably different to those of the DW model. The influence of biased initial conditions over opinion formation in heterogeneous social groups was also studied versus the initial value of opinion uncertainty, varying the proportion of the PA- to C-agents. Bifurcation diagrams showed an impressive evolution of collective opinion, in particular, radical changes of left to right consensus or vice versa at an opinion uncertainty value equal to 0.7 in the model with the PA/C mixture of population near 50/50.

  2. Continuous Opinion Dynamics Under Bounded Confidence:. a Survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorenz, Jan

    Models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence have been presented independently by Krause and Hegselmann and by Deffuant et al. in 2000. They have raised a fair amount of attention in the communities of social simulation, sociophysics and complexity science. The researchers working on it come from disciplines such as physics, mathematics, computer science, social psychology and philosophy. In these models agents hold continuous opinions which they can gradually adjust if they hear the opinions of others. The idea of bounded confidence is that agents only interact if they are close in opinion to each other. Usually, the models are analyzed with agent-based simulations in a Monte Carlo style, but they can also be reformulated on the agent's density in the opinion space in a master equation style. The contribution of this survey is fourfold. First, it will present the agent-based and density-based modeling frameworks including the cases of multidimensional opinions and heterogeneous bounds of confidence. Second, it will give the bifurcation diagrams of cluster configuration in the homogeneous model with uniformly distributed initial opinions. Third, it will review the several extensions and the evolving phenomena which have been studied so far, and fourth it will state some open questions.

  3. [The role of a forensic medicine expert in criminal proceedings].

    PubMed

    Bednarski, Leszek

    2007-01-01

    The author describes actual cases from his practice as a policeman. He also presents the opinions of well-known and highly valued forensic medicine experts and lawyers about the discussed criminal cases. Drawing from his longtime experience, the author analyses the cooperation between forensic medicine experts and prosecution bodies in offences against life and health. He deals mainly with the role played by a forensic medicine expert in formulating possible versions of the event and establishing a direction the investigation should follow. The author's practice shows that it is only a good cooperation with a forensic medicine expert that can ensure a correct, fast and successful investigation.

  4. Sznajd Opinion Dynamics with Global and Local Neighborhood

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schulze, Christian

    In this modification of the Sznajd consensus model on the square lattice, two people of arbitrary distance who agree in their opinions convince their nearest neighbors of this opinion. Similarly to the mean field theory of Slanina and Lavicka, the times needed to reach consensus are distributed exponentially and are quite small. The width of the phase transition vanishes reciprocally to the linear lattice dimension. Advertising has effects independent of the system size. For more than two opinions, three opinions reach a consensus in roughly half of the samples, and four only rarely and only for small lattices. Up to 109 agents were simulated.

  5. Non-consensus Opinion Models on Complex Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Qian; Braunstein, Lidia A.; Wang, Huijuan; Shao, Jia; Stanley, H. Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo

    2013-04-01

    only within single networks but also between networks, and because the rules of opinion formation within a network may differ from those between networks, we study here the opinion dynamics in coupled networks. Each network represents a social group or community and the interdependent links joining individuals from different networks may be social ties that are unusually strong, e.g., married couples. We apply the non-consensus opinion (NCO) rule on each individual network and the global majority rule on interdependent pairs such that two interdependent agents with different opinions will, due to the influence of mass media, follow the majority opinion of the entire population. The opinion interactions within each network and the interdependent links across networks interlace periodically until a steady state is reached. We find that the interdependent links effectively force the system from a second order phase transition, which is characteristic of the NCO model on a single network, to a hybrid phase transition, i.e., a mix of second-order and abrupt jump-like transitions that ultimately becomes, as we increase the percentage of interdependent agents, a pure abrupt transition. We conclude that for the NCO model on coupled networks, interactions through interdependent links could push the non-consensus opinion model to a consensus opinion model, which mimics the reality that increased mass communication causes people to hold opinions that are increasingly similar. We also find that the effect of interdependent links is more pronounced in interdependent scale free networks than in interdependent Erdős Rényi networks.

  6. Opinion formation and bi-polarization with biased assimilation and homophily

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Guiyuan; Zhang, Weidong

    2016-02-01

    An agent-based model incorporating biased assimilation is proposed in this paper to investigate opinion dynamics over a connected social network. The opinion of each agent is represented by a sequence of arguments, and it evolves through the interactions between agents. The probability that one agent chooses another to communicate depends on the similarity of their opinions. During every interaction, interacting agents exchange the argument randomly selected from the corresponding arguments sequence. Theoretical analysis reveals that this model results in consensus on either extreme positive opinion or extreme negative opinion, or generates bi-polarization. Numerical simulations are carried out to investigate the dynamics of the model over different networks. Results are obtained in terms of the effect of homophily, biased assimilation and network topology on opinion formation.

  7. Bounded Confidence under Preferential Flip: A Coupled Dynamics of Structural Balance and Opinions.

    PubMed

    Parravano, Antonio; Andina-Díaz, Ascensión; Meléndez-Jiménez, Miguel A

    2016-01-01

    In this work we study the coupled dynamics of social balance and opinion formation. We propose a model where agents form opinions under bounded confidence, but only considering the opinions of their friends. The signs of social ties -friendships and enmities- evolve seeking for social balance, taking into account how similar agents' opinions are. We consider both the case where opinions have one and two dimensions. We find that our dynamics produces the segregation of agents into two cliques, with the opinions of agents in one clique differing from those in the other. Depending on the level of bounded confidence, the dynamics can produce either consensus of opinions within each clique or the coexistence of several opinion clusters in a clique. For the uni-dimensional case, the opinions in one clique are all below the opinions in the other clique, hence defining a "left clique" and a "right clique". In the two-dimensional case, our numerical results suggest that the two cliques are separated by a hyperplane in the opinion space. We also show that the phenomenon of unidimensional opinions identified by DeMarzo, Vayanos and Zwiebel (Q J Econ 2003) extends partially to our dynamics. Finally, in the context of politics, we comment about the possible relation of our results to the fragmentation of an ideology and the emergence of new political parties.

  8. Social judgment theory based model on opinion formation, polarization and evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chau, H. F.; Wong, C. Y.; Chow, F. K.; Fung, Chi-Hang Fred

    2014-12-01

    The dynamical origin of opinion polarization in the real world is an interesting topic that physical scientists may help to understand. To properly model the dynamics, the theory must be fully compatible with findings by social psychologists on microscopic opinion change. Here we introduce a generic model of opinion formation with homogeneous agents based on the well-known social judgment theory in social psychology by extending a similar model proposed by Jager and Amblard. The agents’ opinions will eventually cluster around extreme and/or moderate opinions forming three phases in a two-dimensional parameter space that describes the microscopic opinion response of the agents. The dynamics of this model can be qualitatively understood by mean-field analysis. More importantly, first-order phase transition in opinion distribution is observed by evolving the system under a slow change in the system parameters, showing that punctuated equilibria in public opinion can occur even in a fully connected social network.

  9. Defining Sustainable Universities Following Public Opinion Formation Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zaptcioglu Celikdemir, Deniz; Gunay, Gonca; Katrinli, Alev; Penbek Alpbaz, Sebnem

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to define the sustainable university in Turkey, by considering perspectives of various stakeholders such as experts, intellectual, public, political parties and media using public opinion formation analysis. The paper aims to re-define the "sustainable university" with all dimensions including…

  10. Opinion dynamics with similarity-based random neighbors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Qipeng; Wang, Xiaofan

    2013-10-01

    A typical assumption made in the existing opinion formation models is that two individuals can communicate with each other only if the distance between their opinions is less than a threshold called bound of confidence. However, in the real world it is quite possible that people may also have a few friends with quite different opinions. To model this situation, we propose a bounded confidence plus random selection model, in which each agent has several long-range neighbors outside the bound who are selected according to a similarity-based probability rule. We find that the opinions of all agents can reach a consensus in bounded time. We further consider the situation when agents ignore the bound of confidence and select all their neighbors randomly according to the similarity-based probability rule. We prove that in this scenario the whole group could also reach a consensus but in the probability sense.

  11. Key attributes of expert NRL referees.

    PubMed

    Morris, Gavin; O'Connor, Donna

    2017-05-01

    Experiential knowledge of elite National Rugby League (NRL) referees was investigated to determine the key attributes contributing to expert officiating performance. Fourteen current first-grade NRL referees were asked to identify the key attributes they believed contributed to their expert refereeing performance. The modified Delphi method involved a 3-round process of an initial semi-structured interview followed by 2 questionnaires to reach consensus of opinion. The data revealed 25 attributes that were rated as most important that underpin expert NRL refereeing performance. Results illustrate the significance of the cognitive category, with the top 6 ranked attributes all cognitive skills. Of these, the referees ranked decision-making accuracy as the most important attribute, followed by reading the game, communication, game understanding, game management and knowledge of the rules. Player rapport, positioning and teamwork were the top ranked game skill attributes underpinning performance excellence. Expert referees also highlighted a number of psychological attributes (e.g., concentration, composure and mental toughness) that were significant to performance. There were only 2 physiological attributes (fitness, aerobic endurance) that were identified as significant to elite officiating performance. In summary, expert consensus was attained which successfully provided a hierarchy of the most significant attributes of expert NRL refereeing performance.

  12. Political opinion formation: Initial opinion distribution and individual heterogeneity of tolerance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Cheng; Li, Yifu; Jin, Xiaogang

    2017-02-01

    Opinion dynamics on networks have received serious attention for its profound prospects in social behaviours and self-organized systems. However, political opinion formation, as one typical and significant case, remains lacking in discussion. Previous agent-based simulations propose various models that are based on different mechanisms like the coevolution between network topology and status transition. Nonetheless, even under the same network topology and with the same simple mechanism, forming opinions can still be uncertain. In this work, we propose two features, the initial distribution of opinions and the individual heterogeneity of tolerances on opinion changing, in political opinion formation. These two features are imbedded in the network construction phase of a classical model. By comparing multi simple-party systems, along with a detailed analysis on the two-party system, we capture the critical phenomenon of fragmentation, polarization and consensus both in the persistent stable stage and in-process. We further introduce the average ratio of nearest neighbours to characterize the stage of opinion formation. The results show that the initial distribution of opinions leads to different evolution results on similar random networks. In addition, the existence of stubborn nodes plays a special role: only nodes that are extremely stubborn can cause the change of final opinion distribution while in other cases they only delay the time to reach stability. If stubborn nodes are small in number, their effects are confined within a small range. This theoretical work goes deeper on an existing model, it is an early exploration on qualitative and quantitative simulation of party competition.

  13. A teledentistry system for the second opinion.

    PubMed

    Gambino, Orazio; Lima, Fausto; Pirrone, Roberto; Ardizzone, Edoardo; Campisi, Giuseppina; di Fede, Olga

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we present a Teledentistry system aimed to the Second Opinion task. It make use of a particular camera called intra-oral camera, also called dental camera, in order to perform the photo shooting and real-time video of the inner part of the mouth. The pictures acquired by the Operator with such a device are sent to the Oral Medicine Expert (OME) by means of a current File Transfer Protocol (FTP) service and the real-time video is channeled into a video streaming thanks to the VideoLan client/server (VLC) application. It is composed by a HTML5 web-pages generated by PHP and allows to perform the Second Opinion both when Operator and OME are logged and when one of them is offline.

  14. Robotics and expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1986-01-01

    This volume contains papers presented at ROBEXS' 86, the Second Annual Workshop on Robotics and Expert Systems. Many diverse perspectives on automation problems, and on the merging of robotics and expert systems technology with conventional systems, are contained in this book. The contents include: Integrated Expert Systems Applications; Expert Systems Theory and Applications, Robotics, Intelligent Control, CAD/CAE/CAM, AI Tools, Human Factors, and intelligent Interfaces.

  15. The Expert Witness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Environmental Science and Technology, 1975

    1975-01-01

    As consumers organize and industry begins to feel the economic pinch of pollution control laws, litigation may increase as will the need for the expert witness. Discussed are the functions and preparations of expert witnesses, their role and conduct in judicial proceedings, and the techniques of being an expert witness. (BT)

  16. Bounded Confidence under Preferential Flip: A Coupled Dynamics of Structural Balance and Opinions

    PubMed Central

    Parravano, Antonio; Andina-Díaz, Ascensión; Meléndez-Jiménez, Miguel A.

    2016-01-01

    In this work we study the coupled dynamics of social balance and opinion formation. We propose a model where agents form opinions under bounded confidence, but only considering the opinions of their friends. The signs of social ties -friendships and enmities- evolve seeking for social balance, taking into account how similar agents’ opinions are. We consider both the case where opinions have one and two dimensions. We find that our dynamics produces the segregation of agents into two cliques, with the opinions of agents in one clique differing from those in the other. Depending on the level of bounded confidence, the dynamics can produce either consensus of opinions within each clique or the coexistence of several opinion clusters in a clique. For the uni-dimensional case, the opinions in one clique are all below the opinions in the other clique, hence defining a “left clique” and a “right clique”. In the two-dimensional case, our numerical results suggest that the two cliques are separated by a hyperplane in the opinion space. We also show that the phenomenon of unidimensional opinions identified by DeMarzo, Vayanos and Zwiebel (Q J Econ 2003) extends partially to our dynamics. Finally, in the context of politics, we comment about the possible relation of our results to the fragmentation of an ideology and the emergence of new political parties. PMID:27716815

  17. Damage spreading and opinion dynamics on scale-free networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fortunato, Santo

    2005-03-01

    We study damage spreading among the opinions of a system of agents, subjected to the dynamics of the Krause-Hegselmann consensus model. The damage consists in a sharp change of the opinion of one or more agents in the initial random opinion configuration, supposedly due to some external factors and/or events. This may help to understand for instance under which conditions special shocking events or targeted propaganda are able to influence the results of elections. For agents lying on the nodes of a Barabási-Albert network, there is a damage spreading transition at a low value εd of the confidence bound parameter. Interestingly, we find as well that there is some critical value εs above which the initial perturbation manages to propagate to all other agents.

  18. Value-Added Models: What the Experts Say

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Amrein-Beardsley, Audrey; Pivovarova, Margarita; Geiger, Tray J.

    2016-01-01

    Being an expert involves explaining how things are supposed to work, and, perhaps more important, why things might not work as supposed. In this study, researchers surveyed scholars with expertise in value-added models (VAMs) to solicit their opinions about the uses and potential of VAMs for teacher-level accountability purposes (for example, in…

  19. Expert evidence, the adversary system, and the jury.

    PubMed

    Vidmar, Neil

    2005-01-01

    Many assertions have been made about the competence of juries in dealing with expert evidence. I review the types of expert evidence that jurors hear and the impact of adversary legal procedure on the form and manner in which evidence is presented. Empirical research indicates that jurors understand the adversary process, that they do not automatically defer to the opinions of experts, and that their verdicts appear to be generally consistent with external criteria of performance. Conflicts between the American adversary system and changes in trial procedures that might assist the jury in its task are also considered here.

  20. Diagnosis and management of AML in adults: 2017 ELN recommendations from an international expert panel

    PubMed Central

    Estey, Elihu; Grimwade, David; Amadori, Sergio; Appelbaum, Frederick R.; Büchner, Thomas; Dombret, Hervé; Ebert, Benjamin L.; Fenaux, Pierre; Larson, Richard A.; Levine, Ross L.; Lo-Coco, Francesco; Naoe, Tomoki; Niederwieser, Dietger; Ossenkoppele, Gert J.; Sanz, Miguel; Sierra, Jorge; Tallman, Martin S.; Tien, Hwei-Fang; Wei, Andrew H.; Löwenberg, Bob; Bloomfield, Clara D.

    2017-01-01

    The first edition of the European LeukemiaNet (ELN) recommendations for diagnosis and management of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in adults, published in 2010, has found broad acceptance by physicians and investigators caring for patients with AML. Recent advances, for example, in the discovery of the genomic landscape of the disease, in the development of assays for genetic testing and for detecting minimal residual disease (MRD), as well as in the development of novel antileukemic agents, prompted an international panel to provide updated evidence- and expert opinion-based recommendations. The recommendations include a revised version of the ELN genetic categories, a proposal for a response category based on MRD status, and criteria for progressive disease. PMID:27895058

  1. Diagnosis and management of AML in adults: 2017 ELN recommendations from an international expert panel.

    PubMed

    Döhner, Hartmut; Estey, Elihu; Grimwade, David; Amadori, Sergio; Appelbaum, Frederick R; Büchner, Thomas; Dombret, Hervé; Ebert, Benjamin L; Fenaux, Pierre; Larson, Richard A; Levine, Ross L; Lo-Coco, Francesco; Naoe, Tomoki; Niederwieser, Dietger; Ossenkoppele, Gert J; Sanz, Miguel; Sierra, Jorge; Tallman, Martin S; Tien, Hwei-Fang; Wei, Andrew H; Löwenberg, Bob; Bloomfield, Clara D

    2017-01-26

    The first edition of the European LeukemiaNet (ELN) recommendations for diagnosis and management of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in adults, published in 2010, has found broad acceptance by physicians and investigators caring for patients with AML. Recent advances, for example, in the discovery of the genomic landscape of the disease, in the development of assays for genetic testing and for detecting minimal residual disease (MRD), as well as in the development of novel antileukemic agents, prompted an international panel to provide updated evidence- and expert opinion-based recommendations. The recommendations include a revised version of the ELN genetic categories, a proposal for a response category based on MRD status, and criteria for progressive disease.

  2. From expert witness to defendant: abolition of expert witness protection and its implications.

    PubMed

    Mendelson, Danuta

    2012-12-01

    In Jones v Kaney [2011] 2 AC 398, the United Kingdom Supreme Court held that in England and Wales (but not in Scotland), clients can sue expert witnesses in negligence and/or contract for work performed under their retainer, whether in civil or criminal trials. The duties of expert witnesses in England are regulated by the Civil Procedure Rules and Protocols; the former also regulate the conduct of cases involving expert opinions. The legal context that led to the litigation is examined in the light of these rules, in particular, the nature of the allegations against Dr Kaney, a psychologist retained to provide psychiatric opinion. Jones v Kaney, as a decision of the United Kingdom Supreme Court, is not a binding precedent in Australia. However, unlike statutory enactments, common law judgments are retrospective in their operation, which means that health care practitioners who follow a generally accepted practice today may still be sued for damages by their patients or clients in the future. By definition, the future, including the refusal by the Australian High Court to follow Kaney's abolition of expert witnesses' immunity from suit for breach of duty to their clients, cannot be predicted with certainty. Consequently, health care practitioners in Australia and other countries should be aware of the case, its jurisprudential and practical ramifications.

  3. Factors Influencing Continuing Professional Development: A Delphi Study among Nursing Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brekelmans, Gerard; Poell, Rob F.; van Wijk, Kees

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this paper is to present an inventory of expert opinions on the factors that influence the participation of registered nurses in continuing professional development (CPD) activities. Design/methodology/approach: A Delphi study was conducted among 38 Dutch experts (nursing employers, managers, education institutions, and…

  4. Artificial intelligence and the law: will expert systems replace expert lawyers

    SciTech Connect

    Grossman, G.S.

    1983-01-01

    Summary form only given, as follows. The commercial availability of expert systems utilizing specially developed knowledge bases raises significant questions about their potential utility in the practice of law. These systems, built with the aid of recent developments in artificial intelligence research, may only prove useful in certain areas of legal practice. Counselling and interviewing are areas where expert systems are likely to effect marked changes in the practice of law. In contract, computerized legal research using a knowledge-based system is more difficult to envision. This is due to complexities presented by the multiplicity of sources of the law, and by conflicting opinions and interpretations in the common law. In the coming decade, use of expert systems in science and medicine will grow rapidly, and attempts will continue to be made to automate the legal reasoning process. As past research efforts have demonstrated, this will not be an easy task.

  5. A consensus opinion model based on the evolutionary game

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Han-Xin

    2016-08-01

    We propose a consensus opinion model based on the evolutionary game. In our model, both of the two connected agents receive a benefit if they have the same opinion, otherwise they both pay a cost. Agents update their opinions by comparing payoffs with neighbors. The opinion of an agent with higher payoff is more likely to be imitated. We apply this model in scale-free networks with tunable degree distribution. Interestingly, we find that there exists an optimal ratio of cost to benefit, leading to the shortest consensus time. Qualitative analysis is obtained by examining the evolution of the opinion clusters. Moreover, we find that the consensus time decreases as the average degree of the network increases, but increases with the noise introduced to permit irrational choices. The dependence of the consensus time on the network size is found to be a power-law form. For small or larger ratio of cost to benefit, the consensus time decreases as the degree exponent increases. However, for moderate ratio of cost to benefit, the consensus time increases with the degree exponent. Our results may provide new insights into opinion dynamics driven by the evolutionary game theory.

  6. Social Influence and the Collective Dynamics of Opinion Formation

    PubMed Central

    Moussaïd, Mehdi; Kämmer, Juliane E.; Analytis, Pantelis P.; Neth, Hansjörg

    2013-01-01

    Social influence is the process by which individuals adapt their opinion, revise their beliefs, or change their behavior as a result of social interactions with other people. In our strongly interconnected society, social influence plays a prominent role in many self-organized phenomena such as herding in cultural markets, the spread of ideas and innovations, and the amplification of fears during epidemics. Yet, the mechanisms of opinion formation remain poorly understood, and existing physics-based models lack systematic empirical validation. Here, we report two controlled experiments showing how participants answering factual questions revise their initial judgments after being exposed to the opinion and confidence level of others. Based on the observation of 59 experimental subjects exposed to peer-opinion for 15 different items, we draw an influence map that describes the strength of peer influence during interactions. A simple process model derived from our observations demonstrates how opinions in a group of interacting people can converge or split over repeated interactions. In particular, we identify two major attractors of opinion: (i) the expert effect, induced by the presence of a highly confident individual in the group, and (ii) the majority effect, caused by the presence of a critical mass of laypeople sharing similar opinions. Additional simulations reveal the existence of a tipping point at which one attractor will dominate over the other, driving collective opinion in a given direction. These findings have implications for understanding the mechanisms of public opinion formation and managing conflicting situations in which self-confident and better informed minorities challenge the views of a large uninformed majority. PMID:24223805

  7. [Professionalization of Legal Dental Experts in Germany: Results of Studies on Structured Focus Groups].

    PubMed

    Brauer, H U; Walther, W; Dick, M

    2016-10-25

    Background: Legal expert opinions are a crucial instrument of professional self-control in medicine. To give impulses for further development, focus groups were initiated to reflect upon the perspective of legal dental experts. Methods: 5 focus group discussions on the topic "Professionalization of legal dental experts" were conducted. A total of 32 experienced legal dental experts participated in the discussions. The results were evaluated by qualitative content analysis. Results: A catalogue of 68 ideas was generated for improvement and divided into 15 categories. Among these were periodic quality circles, interprofessional exchange, supervision of novices and periodic feedback for legal dental experts and dentists. Conclusion: Self-reflection can be included as an instrument for quality improvement of legal dental expert opinions.

  8. Expert Teacher Action Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Washington, Eva

    The expert teacher action program is to improve classroom teaching performance. The program has been tested in workshop sessions involving more than 1,200 educators representing 50 school districts. A set of standards, consisting of 25 variables, lead to the definition of expert teaching. Each variable deals with a major aspect of the duties of…

  9. Expert system technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prince, Mary Ellen

    1987-01-01

    The expert system is a computer program which attempts to reproduce the problem-solving behavior of an expert, who is able to view problems from a broad perspective and arrive at conclusions rapidly, using intuition, shortcuts, and analogies to previous situations. Expert systems are a departure from the usual artificial intelligence approach to problem solving. Researchers have traditionally tried to develop general modes of human intelligence that could be applied to many different situations. Expert systems, on the other hand, tend to rely on large quantities of domain specific knowledge, much of it heuristic. The reasoning component of the system is relatively simple and straightforward. For this reason, expert systems are often called knowledge based systems. The report expands on the foregoing. Section 1 discusses the architecture of a typical expert system. Section 2 deals with the characteristics that make a problem a suitable candidate for expert system solution. Section 3 surveys current technology, describing some of the software aids available for expert system development. Section 4 discusses the limitations of the latter. The concluding section makes predictions of future trends.

  10. Expert networks in CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hruska, S. I.; Dalke, A.; Ferguson, J. J.; Lacher, R. C.

    1991-01-01

    Rule-based expert systems may be structurally and functionally mapped onto a special class of neural networks called expert networks. This mapping lends itself to adaptation of connectionist learning strategies for the expert networks. A parsing algorithm to translate C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) rules into a network of interconnected assertion and operation nodes has been developed. The translation of CLIPS rules to an expert network and back again is illustrated. Measures of uncertainty similar to those rules in MYCIN-like systems are introduced into the CLIPS system and techniques for combining and hiring nodes in the network based on rule-firing with these certainty factors in the expert system are presented. Several learning algorithms are under study which automate the process of attaching certainty factors to rules.

  11. Understanding the role of opinion leaders in improving clinical effectiveness.

    PubMed

    Locock, L; Dopson, S; Chambers, D; Gabbay, J

    2001-09-01

    We present findings from evaluations of two government-funded initiatives exploring the transfer of research evidence into clinical practice--the PACE Programme (Promoting Action on Clinical Effectiveness), and the Welsh Clinical Effectiveness Initiative National Demonstration Projects. We situate the findings within the context of available research evidence from healthcare and other settings on the role of opinion leaders or product champions in innovation and change--evidence which leaves a number of problems and unanswered questions. A major concern is the difficulty of achieving a single replicable description of what opinion leaders are and what they do--subjective understandings of their role differ from one setting to another, and we identify a range of very different types of opinion leadership. What makes someone a credible and influential authority is derived not just from their own personality and skills and the dynamic of their relationship with other individuals, but also from other context-specific factors. We examine the question of expert versus peer opinion leaders, and the potential for these different categories to be more or less influential at different stages in the innovation process. An often neglected area is the impact of opinion leaders who are ambivalent or hostile to an innovation. Finally, we note that the interaction between individual opinion leaders and the collective process of negotiating a change and reorienting professional norms remains poorly understood. This raises a number of methodological concerns which need to be considered in further research in this area.

  12. Experts' Recommendations for Treating Maladaptive Aggression in Youth

    PubMed Central

    Pappadopulos, Elizabeth; Rosato, Nancy Scotto; Correll, Christoph U.; Findling, Robert L.; Lucas, Judith; Crystal, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background Psychiatric treatment for children and adolescents with clinically significant aggression is common and often involves the use of antipsychotic medications. Increasingly, pediatricians are initiating or managing such treatments despite limited evidence on optimal diagnostic, psychosocial, and medication approaches for pediatric aggression. Aims The objective of this study was to gather clinicians' and researchers' expertise concerning the treatment of maladaptive aggression, using expert consensus survey methods to aid the development of guidelines for pediatricians and psychiatrists on the outpatient treatment of maladaptive aggression in youth (T-MAY). Methods Forty-six experts (psychiatrists, pediatricians, and researchers) with >10 years of clinical and/or research experience in the treatment of pediatric aggression completed a 27-item survey (>400 treatment alternatives) about optimal diagnostic, psychosocial, and medication treatments. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and confidence intervals. Results Expert consensus methodology clearly differentiated optimal versus nonoptimal treatment strategies for maladaptive aggression. In contrast to current practice trends, results indicated that experts support the use of psychosocial interventions and parent education and training before the use of medication for maladaptive aggression at every stage of medication treatment, from diagnosis to maintenance to medication discontinuation. Conclusion Overall findings indicate that evidence-informed strategies for outpatient treatment of pediatric maladaptive aggression, guided by systematically derived expert opinions, are attainable. In light of the gap between the research literature and clinical practice, expert consensus opinion supports specific practices for optimal outpatient management in children and adolescents with severe and persistent behavioral difficulties. PMID:22196314

  13. Training for legal dental expert witnesses in Germany: an instrument for professional development.

    PubMed

    Brauer, Hans Ulrich; Walther, Winfried; Riesen, Christa; Dick, Michael

    2012-05-01

    Lawsuits in dentistry are increasing, and often a legal dental expert witness is called to provide an expert opinion. The appointment of the expert witness is rather arbitrary since special requirements for expert witnesses do not exist. Qualified written expert opinions, however, are particularly relevant for the dental profession. The Karlsruhe Training for Legal Dental Expert Witnesses (KT) was introduced as the German approach to this problem. The KT is a training program based on the principles of continuing professional development (CPD) that trains dentists to give written expert opinions and to act as expert witnesses in all types of legal matters. The aim of the study was to assess the quality of the KT according to the requirements of CPD. A written survey was conducted among the 161 participants in the KT between 2004 and 2009. It contained questions to assess the quality of the program and to evaluate its impact on the professional performance of the participants. The return rate was 51.6 percent (n=83). The analysis shows that the KT achieved its main goal to train the dentist as a legal dental expert witness and that the KT does not only transfer formal knowledge but stimulates changes in personal development as described in the concept of CPD.

  14. [Remarks about the position of the medico-legal expert in imperative regulations in the Penal and Civil Codes].

    PubMed

    Chowaniec, Czesław; Nowak, Agnieszka; Chowaniec, Małgorzata; Kobek, Mariusz

    2005-01-01

    In the monograph 'Medico-legal opinions--essays on theory', prof. K. Jaegermann wrote that 'the use of an expert requires theoretical or fairly clear knowledge about the mutual relationship between judge and expert'. In his opinion knowledge of this kind plays a significant role in estimating the usefulness of so-called expert evidence. Practical knowledge about the relationship between the judge and expert is necessary but not a decisive condition not only for a lawyer to be a judge but also for a physician to be a medico-legal expert. An expert can be not only a person appointed by the court but must also possess proper knowledge in a particular field, namely, the required professional and specialist qualifications and must also considered to be impartial. On the basis of the analysis of law in force and imperative regulations in Penal and Civil Codes, the authors have presented remarks relating to the expert's status as well as the lack of judicial control over the activity of experts appointed by court. Verification of professional qualifications in court experts and a reduction of those appointed 'ad hoc' are suggested. In the authors opinion co-operation between lawyers and experts should be improved. It is also essential to introduce statutory legal protection of court experts as well as to undertake activities leading to equaling the status of Polish court experts to that of other European countries.

  15. Benchmarking expert system tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Riley, Gary

    1988-01-01

    As part of its evaluation of new technologies, the Artificial Intelligence Section of the Mission Planning and Analysis Div. at NASA-Johnson has made timing tests of several expert system building tools. Among the production systems tested were Automated Reasoning Tool, several versions of OPS5, and CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System), an expert system builder developed by the AI section. Also included in the test were a Zetalisp version of the benchmark along with four versions of the benchmark written in Knowledge Engineering Environment, an object oriented, frame based expert system tool. The benchmarks used for testing are studied.

  16. Opinion Formation by Social Influence: From Experiments to Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Chacoma, Andrés; Zanette, Damián H.

    2015-01-01

    Predicting different forms of collective behavior in human populations, as the outcome of individual attitudes and their mutual influence, is a question of major interest in social sciences. In particular, processes of opinion formation have been theoretically modeled on the basis of a formal similarity with the dynamics of certain physical systems, giving rise to an extensive collection of mathematical models amenable to numerical simulation or even to exact solution. Empirical ground for these models is however largely missing, which confine them to the level of mere metaphors of the real phenomena they aim at explaining. In this paper we present results of an experiment which quantifies the change in the opinions given by a subject on a set of specific matters under the influence of others. The setup is a variant of a recently proposed experiment, where the subject’s confidence on his or her opinion was evaluated as well. In our realization, which records the quantitative answers of 85 subjects to 20 questions before and after an influence event, the focus is put on characterizing the change in answers and confidence induced by such influence. Similarities and differences with the previous version of the experiment are highlighted. We find that confidence changes are to a large extent independent of any other recorded quantity, while opinion changes are strongly modulated by the original confidence. On the other hand, opinion changes are not influenced by the initial difference with the reference opinion. The typical time scales on which opinion varies are moreover substantially longer than those of confidence change. Experimental results are then used to estimate parameters for a dynamical agent-based model of opinion formation in a large population. In the context of the model, we study the convergence to full consensus and the effect of opinion leaders on the collective distribution of opinions. PMID:26517825

  17. Opinion Formation by Social Influence: From Experiments to Modeling.

    PubMed

    Chacoma, Andrés; Zanette, Damián H

    2015-01-01

    Predicting different forms of collective behavior in human populations, as the outcome of individual attitudes and their mutual influence, is a question of major interest in social sciences. In particular, processes of opinion formation have been theoretically modeled on the basis of a formal similarity with the dynamics of certain physical systems, giving rise to an extensive collection of mathematical models amenable to numerical simulation or even to exact solution. Empirical ground for these models is however largely missing, which confine them to the level of mere metaphors of the real phenomena they aim at explaining. In this paper we present results of an experiment which quantifies the change in the opinions given by a subject on a set of specific matters under the influence of others. The setup is a variant of a recently proposed experiment, where the subject's confidence on his or her opinion was evaluated as well. In our realization, which records the quantitative answers of 85 subjects to 20 questions before and after an influence event, the focus is put on characterizing the change in answers and confidence induced by such influence. Similarities and differences with the previous version of the experiment are highlighted. We find that confidence changes are to a large extent independent of any other recorded quantity, while opinion changes are strongly modulated by the original confidence. On the other hand, opinion changes are not influenced by the initial difference with the reference opinion. The typical time scales on which opinion varies are moreover substantially longer than those of confidence change. Experimental results are then used to estimate parameters for a dynamical agent-based model of opinion formation in a large population. In the context of the model, we study the convergence to full consensus and the effect of opinion leaders on the collective distribution of opinions.

  18. A Combinatorial Auction among Versatile Experts and Amateurs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, Takayuki; Yokoo, Makoto; Matsubara, Shigeo

    Auctions have become an integral part of electronic commerce and a promising field for applying multi-agent technologies. Correctly judging the quality of auctioned goods is often difficult for amateurs, in particular, in Internet auctions. However, experts can correctly judge the quality of goods. In this situation, it is difficult to make experts tell the truth and attain an efficient allocation, since experts have a clear advantage over amateurs and they would not reveal their valuable information without some reward. In our previous work, we have succeeded in developing such auction protocols under the following two cases: (1) the case of a single-unit auction among experts and amateurs, and (2) the case of a combinatorial auction among single-skilled experts and amateurs. In this paper, we focus on versatile experts. Versatile experts have an interest in, and expert knowledge on the qualities of several goods. In the case of versatile experts, there would be several problems, e.g., free riding problems, if we simply extended the previous VCG-style auction protocol. Thus, in this paper, we employ PORF (price-oriented, rationing-free) protocol for designing our new protocol to realize a strategy-proof auction protocol for experts. In the protocol, the dominant strategy for experts is truth-telling. Also, for amateurs, truth-telling is the best response when two or more experts select the dominant strategy. Furthermore, the protocol is false-name-proof.

  19. Safety organizations and experts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mandel, G.; Rubinstein, R. I.; Pinto, J. J.; Meschkow, S. Z.

    1977-01-01

    Handbook lists organizations and experts in specific, well defined areas of safety technology. Special emphasis is given to relevant safety information sources on aircraft fire hazards and aircraft interior flammability.

  20. Expert systems - 1987

    SciTech Connect

    Walker, T.C.; Miller, R.K.

    1987-01-01

    This is the 1987 updated version of expert systems which includes diverse areas such as CAD/CAM, business management, robotics, welding, computer hardware and software support, electronic design, medicine, insurance, transportation, and maintenance. AI Language Compilers are also inventoried. This handbook is designed to give an overview of the entire field and to assist the reader in sorting through the hundreds of expert systems which are developed to identify cost-effective tools and applications for in-house implementation.

  1. Entropic determination of the phase transition in a coevolving opinion-formation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burgos, E.; Hernández, Laura; Ceva, H.; Perazzo, R. P. J.

    2015-03-01

    We study an opinion formation model by the means of a coevolving complex network where the vertices represent the individuals, characterized by their evolving opinions, and the edges represent the interactions among them. The network adapts to the spreading of opinions in two ways: not only connected agents interact and eventually change their thinking but an agent may also rewire one of its links to a neighborhood holding the same opinion as his. The dynamics, based on a global majority rule, depends on an external parameter that controls the plasticity of the network. We show how the information entropy associated to the distribution of group sizes allows us to locate the phase transition between a phase of full consensus and another, where different opinions coexist. We also determine the minimum size of the most informative sampling. At the transition the distribution of the sizes of groups holding the same opinion is scale free.

  2. Opinion dynamics and synchronization in a network of scientific collaborations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pluchino, Alessandro; Boccaletti, Stefano; Latora, Vito; Rapisarda, Andrea

    2006-12-01

    In this paper we discuss opinion dynamics in the opinion changing rate ( OCR) model, recently proposed in Pluchino et al. [Int. J. Mod. Phys. C 16(4) (2005) 515-531]. The OCR model allows to study whether and how a group of social agents, with a different intrinsic tendency ( rate) to change opinion, finds agreement. In particular, we implement the OCR model on a small graph describing the topology of a real social system. The nodes of the graph are scientists participating in the Tepoztlán conference, celebrating Alberto Robledo's 60th birthday, and the links are based on coauthorship in scientific papers. We study how opinions evolve in time according to the frequency rates of the nodes, to the coupling term, and also to the presence of group structures.

  3. Bias, belief, and consensus: Collective opinion formation on fluctuating networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ngampruetikorn, Vudtiwat; Stephens, Greg J.

    2016-11-01

    With the advent of online networks, societies have become substantially more interconnected with individual members able to easily both maintain and modify their own social links. Here, we show that active network maintenance exposes agents to confirmation bias, the tendency to confirm one's beliefs, and we explore how this bias affects collective opinion formation. We introduce a model of binary opinion dynamics on a complex, fluctuating network with stochastic rewiring and we analyze these dynamics in the mean-field limit of large networks and fast link rewiring. We show that confirmation bias induces a segregation of individuals with different opinions and stabilizes the consensus state. We further show that bias can have an unusual, nonmonotonic effect on the time to consensus and this suggests a novel avenue for large-scale opinion manipulation.

  4. Opinions, Conflicts, and Consensus: Modeling Social Dynamics in a Collaborative Environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Török, János; Iñiguez, Gerardo; Yasseri, Taha; San Miguel, Maxi; Kaski, Kimmo; Kertész, János

    2013-02-01

    Information-communication technology promotes collaborative environments like Wikipedia where, however, controversy and conflicts can appear. To describe the rise, persistence, and resolution of such conflicts, we devise an extended opinion dynamics model where agents with different opinions perform a single task to make a consensual product. As a function of the convergence parameter describing the influence of the product on the agents, the model shows spontaneous symmetry breaking of the final consensus opinion represented by the medium. In the case when agents are replaced with new ones at a certain rate, a transition from mainly consensus to a perpetual conflict occurs, which is in qualitative agreement with the scenarios observed in Wikipedia.

  5. Effect of Leader's Strategy on Opinion Formation in Networked Societies with Local Interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    The work investigates the influence of leader on opinion formation in artificial networked societies. The strength of the social influence is assumed to be dictated by distance from one agent to another, as well as individual strengths of the agents. The leader is assumed to have much greater resources, which allows him to tune the way he influences the other agents. We study various strategies of using these resources to optimize the conditions needed to "convince" the whole society to leader's opinion. The flexibility of the model allows it to be used in studies of political, social and marketing activities and opinion formation.

  6. Social influences in opinion dynamics: The role of conformity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Javarone, Marco Alberto

    2014-11-01

    We study the effects of social influences in opinion dynamics. In particular, we define a simple model, based on the majority rule voting, in order to consider the role of conformity. Conformity is a central issue in social psychology as it represents one of people’s behaviors that emerges as a result of their interactions. The proposed model represents agents, arranged in a network and provided with an individual behavior, that change opinion in function of those of their neighbors. In particular, agents can behave as conformists or as nonconformists. In the former case, agents change opinion in accordance with the majority of their social circle (i.e., their neighbors); in the latter case, they do the opposite, i.e., they take the minority opinion. Moreover, we investigate the nonconformity both on a global and on a local perspective, i.e., in relation to the whole population and to the social circle of each nonconformist agent, respectively. We perform a computational study of the proposed model, with the aim to observe if and how the conformity affects the related outcomes. Moreover, we want to investigate whether it is possible to achieve some kind of equilibrium, or of order, during the evolution of the system. Results highlight that the amount of nonconformist agents in the population plays a central role in these dynamics. In particular, conformist agents play the role of stabilizers in fully-connected networks, whereas the opposite happens in complex networks. Furthermore, by analyzing complex topologies of the agent network, we found that in the presence of radical nonconformist agents the topology of the system has a prominent role; otherwise it does not matter since we observed that a conformist behavior is almost always more convenient. Finally, we analyze the results of the model by considering that agents can change also their behavior over time, i.e., conformists can become nonconformists and vice versa.

  7. CSIR at TREC 2008 Expert Search Task: Modeling Expert Evidence in Expert Search

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-11-01

    CSIR at TREC 2008 Expert Search Task: Modeling Expert Evidence in Expert Search Jiepu Jiang1, Wei Lu1, Haozhen Zhao2 1 Center for Studies of...AND SUBTITLE CSIR at TREC 2008 Expert Search Task: Modeling Expert Evidence in Expert Search 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM...15. J. Jiang, W. Lu, D. Liu. CSIR at TREC 2007. In Proceedings of the 16th Text REtrieval Conference (TREC 2007), 2007. 16. J. Jiang, W. Lu. IR

  8. Communications and Public Opinion: A Public Opinion Quarterly Reader.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carlson, Robert O., Ed.

    The phenomenon of the close relationship between communication and public opinion is shown in this book to have played a major role historically in the measurement of support for political policies, officials, and candidates. The communications media influence public opinion and are subject to it; yet the precise nature and definition of public…

  9. Opinion dynamics of modified Hegselmann-Krause model in a group-based population with heterogeneous bounded confidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Guiyuan; Zhang, Weidong; Li, Zhijun

    2015-02-01

    Continuous opinion dynamics in a group-based population with heterogeneous bounded confidences is considered in this paper. A slightly modified Hegselmann-Krause model is proposed, and agents are classified into three categories: open-minded-, moderate-minded-, and closed-minded-agents, while the whole population is divided into three subgroups accordingly. We study how agents of each category and the population size can affect opinion dynamics. It is observed that the number of final opinion clusters is dominated by the closed-minded agents; open-minded agents cannot contribute to forming opinion consensus and the existence of open-minded agents may diversify the final opinions instead; for the fixed population size and proportion of closed-minded agents, the relative size of the largest final opinion cluster varies along concave-parabola-like curve as the proportion of open-minded agents increases, and there is a tipping point when the number of open-minded agents is almost equal to that of moderate-minded agents; for the fixed proportion of the three categories in the population, as the population size becomes larger, the number of final opinion clusters will reach a plateau. Some of the results are different from the previous studies.

  10. Avionic expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Golshani, Forouzan

    1988-01-01

    At the heart of any intelligent flight control system, there is a knowledge based expert system. The efficiency of these knowledge bases is one of the major factors in the success of aviation and space control systems. In the future, the speed and the capabilities of the expert system and their underlying data base(s) will be the limiting factors in the ability to build more accurate real time space controllers. A methodology is proposed for design and construction of such expert systems. It is noted that existing expert systems are inefficient (slow) in dealing with nontrivial real world situations that involve a vast collection of data. However, current data bases, which are fast in handling large amounts of data, cannot carry out intelligent tasks normally expected from an expert system. The system presented provides the power of deduction (reasoning) along with the efficient mechanisms for management of large data bases. In the system, both straight forward evaluation procedures and sophisticated inference mechanisms coexist. The design methodology is based on mathematics and logic, which ensures the correctness of the final product.

  11. 40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ..., background information provided to experts, and deliberations and formal interactions among experts shall be... and technical views to expert panels as input to any expert elicitation process....

  12. Voter models with contrarian agents.

    PubMed

    Masuda, Naoki

    2013-11-01

    In the voter and many other opinion formation models, agents are assumed to behave as congregators (also called the conformists); they are attracted to the opinions of others. In this study I investigate linear extensions of the voter model with contrarian agents. An agent is either congregator or contrarian and assumes a binary opinion. I investigate three models that differ in the behavior of the contrarian toward other agents. In model 1, contrarians mimic the opinions of other contrarians and oppose (i.e., try to select the opinion opposite to) those of congregators. In model 2, contrarians mimic the opinions of congregators and oppose those of other contrarians. In model 3, contrarians oppose anybody. In all models, congregators are assumed to like anybody. I show that even a small number of contrarians prohibits the consensus in the entire population to be reached in all three models. I also obtain the equilibrium distributions using the van Kampen small-fluctuation approximation and the Fokker-Planck equation for the case of many contrarians and a single contrarian, respectively. I show that the fluctuation around the symmetric coexistence equilibrium is much larger in model 2 than in models 1 and 3 when contrarians are rare.

  13. The influence of persuasion in opinion formation and polarization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    La Rocca, C. E.; Braunstein, L. A.; Vazquez, F.

    2014-05-01

    We present a model that explores the influence of persuasion in a population of agents with positive and negative opinion orientations. The opinion of each agent is represented by an integer number k that expresses its level of agreement on a given issue, from totally against k=-M to totally in favor k = M. Same-orientation agents persuade each other with probability p, becoming more extreme, while opposite-orientation agents become more moderate as they reach a compromise with probability q. The population initially evolves to (a) a polarized state for r=p/q\\gt 1 , where opinions' distribution is peaked at the extreme values k=+/- M , or (b) a centralized state for r < 1, with most opinions around k=+/- 1 . When r \\gg 1 , polarization lasts for a time that diverges as r^M \\ln N , where N is the population's size. Finally, an extremist consensus (k = M or -M ) is reached in a time that scales as r^{-1} for r \\ll 1 .

  14. Opinion Dynamics Driven by Leaders, Media, Viruses and Worms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuncay, Çağlar

    A model on the effects of leader, media, viruses, worms, and other agents on the opinion of individuals is developed and utilized to simulate the formation of consensus in society and price in market via excess between supply and demand. The effects of some time varying drives (harmonic and hyperbolic) are also investigated.

  15. Stochastic opinion formation in scale-free networks

    SciTech Connect

    M. Bartolozzi; D. B. Leinweber; A. W. Thomas

    2005-10-01

    The dynamics of opinion formation in large groups of people is a complex nonlinear phenomenon whose investigation is just beginning. Both collective behavior and personal views play an important role in this mechanism. In the present work we mimic the dynamics of opinion formation of a group of agents, represented by two states 1, as a stochastic response of each agent to the opinion of his/her neighbors in the social network and to feedback from the average opinion of the whole. In the light of recent studies, a scale-free Barabsi-Albert network has been selected to simulate the topology of the interactions. A turbulent-like dynamics, characterized by an intermittent behavior, is observed for a certain range of the model parameters. The problem of uncertainty in decision taking is also addressed both from a topological point of view, using random and targeted removal of agents from the network, and by implementing a three-state model, where the third state, zero, is related to the information available to each agent. Finally, the results of the model are tested against the best known network of social interactions: the stock market. A time series of daily closures of the Dow-Jones index has been used as an indicator of the possible applicability of our model in the financial context. Good qualitative agreement is found.

  16. Fracture mechanics expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Powers, E.; Elfer, N.; Casadaban, C.

    1992-01-01

    Attention is given to fracture mechanics, an analytical method used extensively in the National Space Transportation System to conservatively predict the remaining service life of an article when a flaw or a material defect is detected. These analyses are performed on hardware containing material defects that have been detected by various nondestructive inspection techniques. An expert system being developed to streamline the process so that hardware dispositions may be obtained in a timely and consistent manner is discussed. The expert system reduces the potential for errors due to the manual transcription between the various software programs involved in completing a fracture mechanics analysis. NEXPERT Object, the expert system development shell selected for this purpose, allows the various software programs used in fracture mechanics analyses to be accessed and manipulated from the same platform.

  17. Chaotic Modes in Scale Free Opinion Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kusmartsev, Feo V.; Kürten, Karl E.

    2010-12-01

    In this paper, we investigate processes associated with formation of public opinion in varies directed random, scale free and small-world social networks. The important factor of the opinion formation is the existence of contrarians which were discovered by Granovetter in various social psychology experiments1,2,3 long ago and later introduced in sociophysics by Galam.4 When the density of contrarians increases the system behavior drastically changes at some critical value. At high density of contrarians the system can never arrive to a consensus state and periodically oscillates with different periods depending on specific structure of the network. At small density of the contrarians the behavior is manifold. It depends primary on the initial state of the system. If initially the majority of the population agrees with each other a state of stable majority may be easily reached. However when originally the population is divided in nearly equal parts consensus can never be reached. We model the emergence of collective decision making by considering N interacting agents, whose opinions are described by two state Ising spin variable associated with YES and NO. We show that the dynamical behaviors are very sensitive not only to the density of the contrarians but also to the network topology. We find that a phase of social chaos may arise in various dynamical processes of opinion formation in many realistic models. We compare the prediction of the theory with data describing the dynamics of the average opinion of the USA population collected on a day-by-day basis by varies media sources during the last six month before the final Obama-McCain election. The qualitative ouctome is in reasonable agreement with the prediction of our theory. In fact, the analyses of these data made within the paradigm of our theory indicates that even in this campaign there were chaotic elements where the public opinion migrated in an unpredictable chaotic way. The existence of such a phase

  18. Chaotic Modes in Scale Free Opinion Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kusmartsev, Feo V.; Kürten, Karl E.

    In this paper, we investigate processes associated with formation of public opinion in varies directed random, scale free and small-world social networks. The important factor of the opinion formation is the existence of contrarians which were discovered by Granovetter in various social psychology experiments1,2,3 long ago and later introduced in sociophysics by Galam.4 When the density of contrarians increases the system behavior drastically changes at some critical value. At high density of contrarians the system can never arrive to a consensus state and periodically oscillates with different periods depending on specific structure of the network. At small density of the contrarians the behavior is manifold. It depends primary on the initial state of the system. If initially the majority of the population agrees with each other a state of stable majority may be easily reached. However when originally the population is divided in nearly equal parts consensus can never be reached. We model the emergence of collective decision making by considering N interacting agents, whose opinions are described by two state Ising spin variable associated with YES and NO. We show that the dynamical behaviors are very sensitive not only to the density of the contrarians but also to the network topology. We find that a phase of social chaos may arise in various dynamical processes of opinion formation in many realistic models. We compare the prediction of the theory with data describing the dynamics of the average opinion of the USA population collected on a day-by-day basis by varies media sources during the last six month before the final Obama-McCain election. The qualitative ouctome is in reasonable agreement with the prediction of our theory. In fact, the analyses of these data made within the paradigm of our theory indicates that even in this campaign there were chaotic elements where the public opinion migrated in an unpredictable chaotic way. The existence of such a phase

  19. Validation of expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stachowitz, Rolf A.; Combs, Jacqueline B.

    1988-01-01

    The validation of expert systems (ESs) has only recently become an active AI research topic. Current approaches have concentrated mainly on the validation of rule properties of such systems. The efforts presented improves on current methods by also exploiting the structural and semantic information of such systems. To increase programmer productivity, more and more companies have begun exploiting the advent of AI technology by developing applications using ES shells or other AI-based high level program generators. The architecture, functionality, and future goals of Expert Systems Validation are described along with the features that have been implemented for and in Automated Reasoning Tool, the ES shell presented.

  20. Current Opinion on Nanotoxicology

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Nanotechnology is one of the premiere technologies available today, having expanded both as field of scientific study and in the public consciousness. Despite this growth, the drawbacks, limitations and potential safety hazards associated with the incorporation of nanotechnology into existing industries are still being learned. The noticeable point is that there is no enough data available yet to analyze global use of nanotechnology from a meta-perspective. Three challenges can be defined in light of nanotoxicology. One, materials that might prove to be significantly toxic must be identified. Two, a system for the categorization of NP materials must be codified and made available to toxicologists. Third, a better understanding of nanoparticles biological interactions must be obtained, in order to make the best use of the first two goals. For all three, it must be remembered that research standards need to be developed for the gathering of data on the nanoscale, as that level is where the NPs and the patient’s biosystems will be interacting. As requiring toxicologists to become nanotechnology experts would not be feasible, to properly incorporate the care of nanotoxicity into the existing medical framework, a range of experts across multiple fields of study must work in close synchronization. The focus needs to be on mechanism-driven research to ensure a solid scientific foundation for the assessment of NP and their role in healthcare. PMID:23351979

  1. Attorneys' requests for complete tax records from opposing expert witnesses: some approaches to the problem.

    PubMed

    Gutheil, Thomas G; Simon, Robert I; Simpson, Skip

    2006-01-01

    As part of an impeachment attempt on cross-examination of opposing expert witnesses in trial or deposition, the cross-examining attorney may request the complete tax records of the expert. It is widely believed that expert witnesses may be expected to express opinions that favor the parties who engage them and who pay their fees. Theoretically, the purpose of this request is an attempt to paint the expert as a "hired gun" whose major source of income is forensic work. The different issues, statutes, and case law citations that bear on requests for tax records are reviewed, and the strategies for coping with this tactic are suggested.

  2. Robot environment expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Potter, J. L.

    1985-01-01

    The Robot Environment Expert System uses a hexidecimal tree data structure to model a complex robot environment where not only the robot arm moves, but also the robot itself and other objects may move. The hextree model allows dynamic updating, collision avoidance and path planning over time, to avoid moving objects.

  3. Computers Simulate Human Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roberts, Steven K.

    1983-01-01

    Discusses recent progress in artificial intelligence in such narrowly defined areas as medical and electronic diagnosis. Also discusses use of expert systems, man-machine communication problems, novel programing environments (including comments on LISP and LISP machines), and types of knowledge used (factual, heuristic, and meta-knowledge). (JN)

  4. Capital Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dowell, Laurie; Gary, Jack; Illingworth, Bill; Sargent, Tom

    1987-05-01

    Gathering information, necessary forms, and financial calculations needed to generate a "capital investment proposal" is an extremely complex and difficult process. The intent of the capital investment proposal is to ensure management that the proposed investment has been thoroughly investigated and will have a positive impact on corporate goals. Meeting this requirement typically takes four or five experts a total of 12 hours to generate a "Capital Package." A Capital Expert System was therefore developed using "Personal Consultant." The completed system is hybrid and as such does not depend solely on rules but incorporates several different software packages that communicate through variables and functions passed from one to another. This paper describes the use of expert system techniques, methodology in building the knowledge base, contexts, LISP functions, data base, and special challenges that had to be overcome to create this system. The Capital Expert System is the successful result of a unique integration of artificial intelligence with business accounting, financial forms generation, and investment proposal expertise.

  5. Expert Cold Structure Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atkins, T.; Demuysere, P.

    2011-05-01

    The EXPERT Program is funded by ESA. The objective of the EXPERT mission is to perform a sub-orbital flight during which measurements of critical aero- thermodynamic phenomena will be obtained by using state-of-the-art instrumentation. As part of the EXPERT Flight Segment, the responsibility of the Cold Structure Development Design, Manufacturing and Validation was committed to the Belgian industrial team SONACA/SABCA. The EXPERT Cold Structure includes the Launcher Adapter, the Bottom Panel, the Upper Panel, two Cross Panels and the Parachute Bay. An additional Launcher Adapter was manufactured for the separation tests. The selected assembly definition and manufacturing technologies ( machined parts and sandwich panels) were dictated classically by the mass and stiffness, but also by the CoG location and the sensitive separation interface. Used as support for the various on-board equipment, the Cold Structure is fixed to but thermally uncoupled from the PM 1000 thermal shield. It is protect on its bottom panel by a thermal blanket. As it is a protoflight, analysis was the main tool for the verification. Low level stiffness and modal analysis tests have also been performed on the Cold Structure equipped with its ballast. It allowed to complete its qualification and to prepare SONACA/SABCA support for the system dynamic tests foreseen in 2011. The structure was finally coated with a thermal control black painting and delivered on time to Thales Alenia Space-Italy end of March 201.

  6. Expert Recommended Strategies for Classroom Management for Beginning Teachers Placed in Hard-to-Staff Schools in Urban School Districts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alexis, Chelly C.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to get the opinion of a panel of experts as to which classroom management strategies should be implemented in urban school district mentoring programs to help beginning teachers who are placed in hard-to-staff schools in Los Angeles County, California. Methodology: This Delphi study included 20 expert mentors…

  7. [Medico-legal opinions in penal cases provided by clinicians and forensic medicine specialists--comparative analysis].

    PubMed

    Chowaniec, Czesław; Chowaniec, Małgorzata; Nowak, Agnieszka

    2005-01-01

    From the practice of the Forensic Medicine Department, Medical University of Silesia, Katowice it appears that in criminal cases the level of medico-legal opinions provided by experts appointed by the district court or 'ad hoc' is very low. The analysis of the chosen files shoved a divergence of opinions given to the adopted motions as well as numerous offences to regulations in the nature of a consultative error. In the paper the authors have made an attempt to appraise causes of the above mentioned problems such as: 1. the lack of medico-legal knowledge and experience in court experts. 2. excessive ease of registration to the panel of court experts and the lack of processes which verify the qualifications of experts. 3. the lack of judicial control over expert's opinions and common acceptance of their work. 4. ignorance of the obligatory penal law. 5. ignorance of the basic rules for giving medico-legal opinions (legal consequences, casual nexus). 6. excessive but groundless self-confidence in experts. 7. the lack of a correct way of thinking and conclusion making. The aim of the paper was to pay close attention to the absolute need of verification of court experts' qualifications and work.

  8. Bioethics for Technical Experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asano, Shigetaka

    Along with rapidly expanding applications of life science and technology, technical experts have been implicated more and more often with ethical, social, and legal problems than before. It should be noted that in this background there are scientific and social uncertainty elements which are inevitable during the progress of life science in addition to the historically-established social unreliability to scientists and engineers. In order to solve these problems, therefore, we should establish the social governance with ‘relief’ and ‘reliance’ which enables for both citizens and engineers to share the awareness of the issues, to design social orders and criterions based on hypothetical sense of values for bioethics, to carry out practical use management of each subject carefully, and to improve the sense of values from hypothetical to universal. Concerning these measures, the technical experts can learn many things from the present performance in the medical field.

  9. Make yourself an expert.

    PubMed

    Leonard, Dorothy; Barton, Gavin; Barton, Michelle

    2013-04-01

    Almost every organization has people it can't do without--specialists with "deep smarts," who are the go-to experts on critical issues. But because their knowledge is experienced-based, it's often instinctive and unarticulated, and never gets passed on. Capturing it is a challenge for both the organization and for colleagues who wish to become in-house authorities themselves. This article offers a methodical system for acquiring deep smarts from an expert. It involves observing that person extensively to understand what makes him successful, practicing the behaviors he exhibits on your own, partnering with him to solve problems, and ultimately taking responsibility for some of his tasks. Describing the experiences of one executive as she takes this journey with a mentor, the authors show how you too can gain the wisdom that will make you indispensable to your firm.

  10. Hypothetical constructs, hypothetical questions, and the expert witness.

    PubMed

    Brodsky, Stanley L; Titcomb, Caroline; Sams, David M; Dickson, Kara; Benda, Yves

    2012-01-01

    Professor John Henry Wigmore in 1940 described the hypothetical question as an intolerable obstruction of truth. Since that time, the nature and application of the hypothetical question in the courtroom, as well as responses to this line of questioning during expert testimony, have been sources of controversy. Governed by legal philosophical foundations, the hypothetical construct addresses what there is, in a general sense, and what can or ought to be. Alexy (2004) has described the nature of legal philosophy as the epistemological question of what we can know. This article begins by examining the philosophical underpinnings, legal parameters, and teaching purposes of posing hypothetical queries. A social-psychological backdrop for the use of hypothetical questions is then discussed followed by a broader discussion of the hypothetical question's role in court procedures. This paper identifies hypothetical questions used in court as devices to elicit information, or as predictions that potentially change underlying factual interpretations of evidence. In particular, on cross examination hypothetical questions seek to make opposing experts assume facts that are incongruent with their conclusions or opinions. Sometimes in these situations, experts are led to re-evaluate opinions based on alternative understandings of events and behaviors. Thus, this paper's final aim is to explore a foundational understanding of hypothetical questions asked of expert witnesses with special reference to mental health issues. Options for responding to hypothetical questions on the stand are considered along the dimensions of assertiveness-passivity, compliance-resistance, and possible redefinitions of the hypothetical issues.

  11. Expert Systems Development Methodology

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-07-28

    two volumes. Volume 1 is the Development Metodology and Volume 2 is an Evaluation Methodology containing methods for evaluation, validation and...system are written in an English -like language which almost anyone can understand. Thus programming in rule based systems can become "programming for...computers and others have little understanding about how computers work. The knowledge engineer must therefore be willing and able to teach the expert

  12. Interplay between consensus and coherence in a model of interacting opinions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Battiston, Federico; Cairoli, Andrea; Nicosia, Vincenzo; Baule, Adrian; Latora, Vito

    2016-06-01

    The formation of agents' opinions in a social system is the result of an intricate equilibrium among several driving forces. On the one hand, the social pressure exerted by peers favors the emergence of local consensus. On the other hand, the concurrent participation of agents to discussions on different topics induces each agent to develop a coherent set of opinions across all the topics in which he/she is active. Moreover, the pervasive action of external stimuli, such as mass media, pulls the entire population towards a specific configuration of opinions on different topics. Here we propose a model in which agents with interrelated opinions, interacting on several layers representing different topics, tend to spread their own ideas to their neighborhood, strive to maintain internal coherence, due to the fact that each agent identifies meaningful relationships among its opinions on the different topics, and are at the same time subject to external fields, resembling the pressure of mass media. We show that the presence of heterogeneity in the internal coupling assigned by agents to their different opinions allows to obtain states with mixed levels of consensus, still ensuring that all the agents attain a coherent set of opinions. Furthermore, we show that all the observed features of the model are preserved in the presence of thermal noise up to a critical temperature, after which global consensus is no longer attainable. This suggests the relevance of our results for real social systems, where noise is inevitably present in the form of information uncertainty and misunderstandings. The model also demonstrates how mass media can be effectively used to favor the propagation of a chosen set of opinions, thus polarizing the consensus of an entire population.

  13. Alport syndrome: facts and opinions

    PubMed Central

    Kashtan, Clifford

    2017-01-01

    In this commentary, I review recent advances in Alport syndrome genetics, diagnostics, and therapeutics. I also offer some opinions regarding strategies to optimize the early identification of affected individuals to promote early therapeutic intervention. PMID:28163907

  14. Non-consensus opinion model with a neutral view on complex networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Zihao; Dong, Gaogao; Du, Ruijin; Ma, Jing

    2016-05-01

    A nonconsensus opinion (NCO) model was introduced recently, which allows the stable coexistence of minority and majority opinions. However, due ​to disparities in the knowledge, experiences, and personality or self-protection of agents, they often remain ​neutral when faced with some opinions in real scenarios. ​To address this issue, we propose a general non-consensus opinion model with neutral view (NCON) ​and we define the dynamic opinion ​change process. We applied the NCON model to different topological networks and studied the formation of opinion clusters. In the case of random graphs, random regular networks, and scale-free (SF) networks, we found that the system moved from a continuous phase transition to a discontinuous phase transition as the connectivity density and exponent of the SF network λ ​decreased and increased in the steady state, respectively. Moreover, the initial proportions of neutral opinions were found to have little effect on the proportional structure of opinions at the steady state. These results suggest that the majority choice between positive and negative opinions depends on the initial proportion of each opinion. The NCON model may have potential applications for decision makers.

  15. A Judicial Perspective on Expert Testimony in Marijuana Driving Cases.

    PubMed

    Celeste, Mary A

    2017-03-01

    The decriminalization of marijuana and propagation of marijuana prescribed for medical reasons have resulted in an increase in driving while under the influence of marijuana. Currently, the legal definition of marijuana driving impairment varies by state across the United States. Expert witnesses such as drug recognition experts and medical toxicologists are needed during a discovery to educate attorneys and during a testimony to educate judges and juries. These proceedings provide an overview of the US case law about driving impairment, the current status of the legal thresholds used in the courts for the admission of the medical toxicologist as an expert witness in marijuana driving and related cases, and provides an understanding of evolving issues surrounding the admissibility of their scientific opinion testimony.

  16. Opinions of University Music Teachers on the Musical Competencies Necessary for Primary Education Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Begic, Jasna Šulentic; Begic, Amir; Škojo, Tihana

    2017-01-01

    This paper describes the research conducted in the Republic of Croatia during the 2012/13 academic year. We have gathered opinions from experts, i.e. teaching methods teachers from seven faculties of teacher education, regarding the music teaching competencies necessary for primary education teachers teaching music in the first several grades of…

  17. Discrete Model of Opinion Changes Using Knowledge and Emotions as Control Variables

    PubMed Central

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    2012-01-01

    We present a new model of opinion changes dependent on the agents emotional state and their information about the issue in question. Our goal is to construct a simple, yet nontrivial and flexible representation of individual attitude dynamics for agent based simulations, that could be used in a variety of social environments. The model is a discrete version of the cusp catastrophe model of opinion dynamics in which information is treated as the normal factor while emotional arousal (agitation level determining agent receptiveness and rationality) is treated as the splitting factor. Both variables determine the resulting agent opinion, which itself can be in favor of the studied position, against it, or neutral. Thanks to the flexibility of implementing communication between the agents, the model is potentially applicable in a wide range of situations. As an example of the model application, we study the dynamics of a set of agents communicating among themselves via messages. In the example, we chose the simplest, fully connected communication topology, to focus on the effects of the individual opinion dynamics, and to look for stable final distributions of agents with different emotions, information and opinions. Even for such simplified system, the model shows complex behavior, including phase transitions due to symmetry breaking by external propaganda. PMID:22984516

  18. Evolution of public opinions in closed societies influenced by broadcast media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Kangqi; Pedrycz, Witold

    2017-04-01

    Studies on opinion evolution in a closed society can help people design strategies to emancipate from the control of public opinions and prevent the diffusion of extremism. In this work, the social judgment based opinion (SJBO) dynamics model is extended to explore the collective debates in a closed system that consists of a social network and a broadcast network. The broadcast network is a group of channels through which the so-called broadcast media or mainstream media transmit the same opinion to social agents. Numerical experiments show that the broadcast media can assimilate most of the agents when contrarians are absent. Including agents' diverse attitudes toward the broadcast media, although downsizes the supporters of broadcast media, fails to make contrarians outnumber the supporters. The dominance of broadcast media in a closed system can be overturned by introducing a small number of inflexible contrarians. Influenced by the competition between contrarians and broadcast media, few centrists survive the collective debates. The scale of supporters is maximized when agents neither have their own initial opinions nor have access to the contrarians, whereas the development of contrarians can be boosted when agents start with non-zero opinions and the repulsion to broadcast media is taken into consideration.

  19. Empirical analysis for expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Politakis, P.

    1985-01-01

    This book describes an AI system designed to improve the development of expert systems for classification-type problems. A system referred to as ''seek'' that gives interactive advice about rule refinement in the design of an expert system is presented. The system develops techniques to integrate dual sources of expert knowledge efficiently. The techniques are used to develop a diagnostic consultant for rheumatology.

  20. Role of conviction in nonequilibrium models of opinion formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crokidakis, Nuno; Anteneodo, Celia

    2012-12-01

    We analyze the critical behavior of a class of discrete opinion models in the presence of disorder. Within this class, each agent opinion takes a discrete value (±1 or 0) and its time evolution is ruled by two terms, one representing agent-agent interactions and the other the degree of conviction or persuasion (a self-interaction). The mean-field limit, where each agent can interact evenly with any other, is considered. Disorder is introduced in the strength of both interactions, with either quenched or annealed random variables. With probability p (1-p), a pairwise interaction reflects a negative (positive) coupling, while the degree of conviction also follows a binary probability distribution (two different discrete probability distributions are considered). Numerical simulations show that a nonequilibrium continuous phase transition, from a disordered state to a state with a prevailing opinion, occurs at a critical point pc that depends on the distribution of the convictions, with the transition being spoiled in some cases. We also show how the critical line, for each model, is affected by the update scheme (either parallel or sequential) as well as by the kind of disorder (either quenched or annealed).

  1. The imported forensic expert.

    PubMed

    Larson, C P

    1980-09-01

    A review of the experiences of one of the pioneer forensic pathologists in the United States offers an interesting insight into the possibilities of private forensic pathology in America. The author's experience includes serving as President of the National Boxing Association and the International Boxing Association, during which time he made many improvements in ring safety. His research into several areas of cases of product liability offer an insight to the wide scope of the potential of the forensic expert. This presentation reviews his activities in realms widely afield from medicine.

  2. The expert Neandertal mind.

    PubMed

    Wynn, Thomas; Coolidge, Frederick L

    2004-04-01

    Cognitive neuropsychology, cognitive anthropology, and cognitive archaeology are combined to yield a picture of Neandertal cognition in which expert performance via long-term working memory is the centerpiece of problem solving. This component of Neandertal cognition appears to have been modern in scope. However, Neandertals' working memory capacity, which is the ability to hold a variety of information in active attention, may not have been as large as that of modern humans. This characteristic helps us understand features of the archaeological record, such as the rarity of innovation, and allows us to make empirically based speculations about Neandertal personality.

  3. The imported forensic expert

    SciTech Connect

    Larson, C.P.

    1980-09-01

    A review of the experiences of one of the pioneer forensic pathologists in the United States offers an interesting insight into the possibilities of private forensic pathology in America. The author's experience includes serving as President of the National Boxing Association and the International Boxing Association, during which time he made many improvements in ring safety. His research into several areas of cases of product liability offer an insight to the wide scope of the potential of the forensic expert. This presentation reviews his activities in realms widely afield from medicine.

  4. How experts gain influence.

    PubMed

    Mikes, Anette; Hall, Matthew; Millo, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    In theory, the risk management groups of two British banks--Saxon and Anglo--had the same influence in their organizations. But in practice, they did not: Saxon's was engaged in critical work throughout the bank, while Anglo's had little visibility outside its areas of expertise. In their study of these two financial institutions, the authors identified four competencies--trailblazing, toolmaking, teamwork, and translation--that help functional leaders or groups compete for top management's limited attention and increase their impact. Anglo's risk managers were strong in only some of the competencies, but Saxon's were strong in all four. They consistently scanned the internal and external environment for important issues to which they could apply a risk management perspective (trailblazing) and then developed tools--such as quarterly risk reports--that spread their expertise (toolmaking). While controlling the tools' design and implementation, the risk managers incorporated business managers' insights (teamwork) and made sure everyone could understand the findings (translation). Ultimately, experts' roles must fit the organization's strategy and structural needs. In some situations, functional experts can raise their profile by cultivating just two of the competencies. But those who are strong in all four are likely to be the most influential.

  5. Analysis of cases of forensic veterinary opinions produced in a research and teaching unit.

    PubMed

    Listos, Piotr; Gryzinska, Magdalena; Kowalczyk, Marek

    2015-11-01

    The aim of the study was to present the results of necropsies carried out in the years 2000-2014 in the Department of Pathological Anatomy, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Life Sciences in Lublin. The material used for the analysis consisted of expert opinions prepared on the basis of a decision by a judicial body to admit an expert opinion as evidence. An increase was observed in the demand for the services of veterinary forensic experts, beginning in 2006 and persisting through 2014. The response to the growing popularity of veterinary forensic examinations should be systematization of knowledge and exchange of experience, which would enable the further development of this interdisciplinary science.

  6. Opinion and evidence for treatments in endocrine disorders.

    PubMed

    2002-01-01

    New treatments and treatment protocols for endocrine disorders are evolving rapidly, and research and development activity in the endocrinology field is high. Optimal therapy remains contentious in some areas. To help you keep up-to-date with the latest advances worldwide on all aspects of drug therapy and management of endocrine disorders, this section of the journal brings you information selected from the rapid drug news alerting service Inpharma Weekly. Each issue contains easy-to-read summaries of the most important research and development news, clinical studies, treatment guidelines, pharmacoeconomic and adverse drug reaction news, and expert opinion pieces published in the world's top endocrinology journals.

  7. Opinion and evidence for treatments in endocrine disorders.

    PubMed

    2003-01-01

    New treatments and treatment protocols for endocrine disorders are evolving rapidly, and research and development activity in the endocrinology field is high. Optimal therapy remains contentious in some areas. To help you keep up-to-date with the latest advances worldwide on all aspects of drug therapy and management of endocrine disorders, this section of the journal brings you information selected from the rapid drug news alerting service Inpharma Weekly. Each issue contains easy-to-read summaries of the most important research and development news, clinical studies, treatment guidelines, pharmacoeconomic and adverse drug reaction news, and expert opinion pieces published in the world's top endocrinology journals.

  8. Clustering and asymptotic behavior in opinion formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jabin, Pierre-Emmanuel; Motsch, Sebastien

    2014-12-01

    We investigate the long time behavior of models of opinion formation. We consider the case of compactly supported interactions between agents which are also non-symmetric, including for instance the so-called Krause model. Because of the finite range of interaction, convergence to a unique consensus is not expected in general. We are nevertheless able to prove the convergence to a final equilibrium state composed of possibly several local consensus. This result had so far only been conjectured through numerical evidence. Because of the non-symmetry in the model, the analysis is delicate and is performed in two steps: First using entropy estimates to prove the formation of stable clusters and then studying the evolution in each cluster. We study both discrete and continuous in time models and give rates of convergence when those are available.

  9. Executing CLIPS expert systems in a distributed environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, James; Myers, Leonard

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes a framework for running cooperating agents in a distributed environment to support the Intelligent Computer Aided Design System (ICADS), a project in progress at the CAD Research Unit of the Design Institute at the California Polytechnic State University. Currently, the systems aids an architectural designer in creating a floor plan that satisfies some general architectural constraints and project specific requirements. At the core of ICADS is the Blackboard Control System. Connected to the blackboard are any number of domain experts called Intelligent Design Tools (IDT). The Blackboard Control System monitors the evolving design as it is being drawn and helps resolve conflicts from the domain experts. The user serves as a partner in this system by manipulating the floor plan in the CAD system and validating recommendations made by the domain experts. The primary components of the Blackboard Control System are two expert systems executed by a modified CLIPS shell. The first is the Message Handler. The second is the Conflict Resolver. The Conflict Resolver synthesizes the suggestions made by the domain experts, which can be either CLIPS expert systems, or compiled C programs. In DEMO1, the current ICADS prototype, the CLIPS domain expert systems are Acoustics, Lighting, Structural, and Thermal; the compiled C domain experts are the CAD system and the User Interface.

  10. Data for comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brandt, Laura A.; Benscoter, Allison; Harvey, Rebecca G.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Romanach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2017-01-01

    The data we used for this study include species occurrence data (n=15 species), climate data and predictions, an expert opinion questionnaire, and species masks that represented the model domain for each species. For this data release, we include the results of the expert opinion questionnaire and the species model domains (or masks). We developed an expert opinion questionnaire to gather information on expert opinion regarding the importance of climate variables in determining a species geographic range. The species masks, or model domains, were defined separately for each species using a variation of the “target-group” approach (Phillips et al. 2009), where the domain was determined using convex polygons including occurrence data for at least three phylogenetically related and similar species (Watling et al. 2012). The species occurrence data, climate data, and climate predictions are freely available online, and therefore not included in this data release. The species occurrence data were obtained from the online database Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF; http://www.gbif.org/), and from scientific literature (Watling et al. 2011). Climate data were obtained from the WorldClim database (Hijmans et al. 2005) and climate predictions were obtained from the Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies (COAPS) at Florida State University (https://floridaclimateinstitute.org/resources/data-sets/regional-downscaling). See metadata for references.

  11. The Undecided Have the Key: Interaction-Driven Opinion Dynamics in a Three State Model.

    PubMed

    Balenzuela, Pablo; Pinasco, Juan Pablo; Semeshenko, Viktoriya

    2015-01-01

    The effects of interpersonal interactions on individual's agreements result in a social aggregation process which is reflected in the formation of collective states, as for instance, groups of individuals with a similar opinion about a given issue. This field, which has been a longstanding concern of sociologists and psychologists, has been extended into an area of experimental social psychology, and even has attracted the attention of physicists and mathematicians. In this article, we present a novel model of opinion formation in which agents may either have a strict preference for a choice, or be undecided. The opinion shift emerges, in a threshold process, as a consequence of a cumulative persuasion for either one of the two opinions in repeated interactions. There are two main ingredients which play key roles in determining the steady states: the initial fraction of undecided agents and the change in agents' persuasion after each interaction. As a function of these two parameters, the model presents a wide range of solutions, among which there are consensus of each opinion and bi-polarization. We found that a minimum fraction of undecided agents is not crucial for reaching consensus only, but also to determine a dominant opinion in a polarized situation. In order to gain a deeper comprehension of the dynamics, we also present the theoretical framework of the model. The master equations are of special interest for their nontrivial properties and difficulties in being solved analytically.

  12. Expert Elicitation Methods in Quantifying the Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance from Offshore Renewable Energy Developments.

    PubMed

    Donovan, Carl; Harwood, John; King, Stephanie; Booth, Cormac; Caneco, Bruno; Walker, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    There are many developments for offshore renewable energy around the United Kingdom whose installation typically produces large amounts of far-reaching noise, potentially disturbing many marine mammals. The potential to affect the favorable conservation status of many species means extensive environmental impact assessment requirements for the licensing of such installation activities. Quantification of such complex risk problems is difficult and much of the key information is not readily available. Expert elicitation methods can be employed in such pressing cases. We describe the methodology used in an expert elicitation study conducted in the United Kingdom for combining expert opinions based on statistical distributions and copula-like methods.

  13. Community Size, Perceptions of Majority Opinion and Opinion Expression.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salmon, Charles T.; Oshagan, Hayg

    A study examined structural determinants of opinion expression by merging two theoretical perspectives: the "spiral of silence" model advanced by Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann, and the structural approach to communication research offered by Phillip Tichenor, George Donohue, and Clarice Olien. The study also distinguished between different…

  14. Robotics and expert systems. Volume 3

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1987-01-01

    This book presents papers given at a workshop on robotics and expert systems. Topics considered at the conference include: symbolic computation expert systems for software productivity; expert systems, practices; expert systems, methods; and, technology needs and productivity.

  15. Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

  16. Diagnosis, evaluation, and treatment of hyponatremia: expert panel recommendations.

    PubMed

    Verbalis, Joseph G; Goldsmith, Steven R; Greenberg, Arthur; Korzelius, Cynthia; Schrier, Robert W; Sterns, Richard H; Thompson, Christopher J

    2013-10-01

    Hyponatremia is a serious, but often overlooked, electrolyte imbalance that has been independently associated with a wide range of deleterious changes involving many different body systems. Untreated acute hyponatremia can cause substantial morbidity and mortality as a result of osmotically induced cerebral edema, and excessively rapid correction of chronic hyponatremia can cause severe neurologic impairment and death as a result of osmotic demyelination. The diverse etiologies and comorbidities associated with hyponatremia pose substantial challenges in managing this disorder. In 2007, a panel of experts in hyponatremia convened to develop the Hyponatremia Treatment Guidelines 2007: Expert Panel Recommendations that defined strategies for clinicians caring for patients with hyponatremia. In the 6 years since the publication of that document, the field has seen several notable developments, including new evidence on morbidities and complications associated with hyponatremia, the importance of treating mild to moderate hyponatremia, and the efficacy and safety of vasopressin receptor antagonist therapy for hyponatremic patients. Therefore, additional guidance was deemed necessary and a panel of hyponatremia experts (which included all of the original panel members) was convened to update the previous recommendations for optimal current management of this disorder. The updated expert panel recommendations in this document represent recommended approaches for multiple etiologies of hyponatremia that are based on both consensus opinions of experts in hyponatremia and the most recent published data in this field.

  17. Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge.

    PubMed

    Chamberlain, Dan E; Pedrini, Paolo; Brambilla, Mattia; Rolando, Antonio; Girardello, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds). For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community.

  18. SENLEX: Sensor layout expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Ward, J.D.; Sena, K.J.

    1986-01-01

    An expert system is under development to carry out intrusion detection sensor placement for physical security systems. Expert systems are computer programs that use symbolic programming techniques to duplicate the reasoning processes of human experts. Because sensitive facilities often require complex, multi-sensor intrusion detection systems, the design rules for achieving high levels of detection performance are not easily transferred to novices. Since these design rules reside in the minds of the individual experts performing the tasks, the need to consolidate this knowledge in a form that is available to others was a driving force in this project. The first phase of this project is described in this paper. It consists of an expert system for sensor placement in a graded clear zone. The program has the capability of handling several different sensor types and of coordinating the placement of multiple sensor types. The designs produced by the program in comparison with the designs produced by human experts are discussed.

  19. Spacecraft environmental anomalies expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koons, H. C.; Gorney, D. J.

    1988-01-01

    A microcomputer-based expert system is being developed at the Aerospace Corporation Space Sciences Laboratory to assist in the diagnosis of satellite anomalies caused by the space environment. The expert system is designed to address anomalies caused by surface charging, bulk charging, single event effects and total radiation dose. These effects depend on the orbit of the satellite, the local environment (which is highly variable), the satellite exposure time and the hardness of the circuits and components of the satellite. The expert system is a rule-based system that uses the Texas Instruments Personal Consultant Plus expert system shell. The completed expert system knowledge base will include 150 to 200 rules, as well as a spacecraft attributes database, an historical spacecraft anomalies database, and a space environment database which is updated in near real-time. Currently, the expert system is undergoing development and testing within the Aerospace Corporation Space Sciences Laboratory.

  20. Radiation countermeasure agents: an update (2011 – 2014)

    PubMed Central

    Newman, Victoria L; Romaine, Patricia LP; Wise, Stephen Y; Seed, Thomas M

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Despite significant scientific advances over the past 60 years towards the development of a safe, nontoxic and effective radiation countermeasure for the acute radiation syndrome (ARS), no drug has been approved by the US FDA. A radiation countermeasure to protect the population at large from the effects of lethal radiation exposure remains a significant unmet medical need of the US citizenry and, thus, has been recognized as a high priority area by the government. Area covered This article reviews relevant publications and patents for recent developments and progress for potential ARS treatments in the area of radiation countermeasures. Emphasis is placed on the advanced development of existing agents since 2011 and new agents identified as radiation countermeasure for ARS during this period. Expert opinion A number of promising radiation countermeasures are currently under development, seven of which have received US FDA investigational new drug status for clinical investigation. Four of these agents, CBLB502, Ex-RAD, HemaMax and OrbeShield, are progressing with large animal studies and clinical trials. G-CSF has high potential and well-documented therapeutic effects in countering myelosuppression and may receive full licensing approval by the US FDA in the future. PMID:25315070

  1. Opinion Summarizationof CustomerComments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Miao; Wu, Guoshi

    Web 2.0 technologies have enabled more and more customers to freely comment on different kinds of entities, such as sellers, products and services. The large scale of information poses the need and challenge of automatic summarization. In many cases, each of the user-generated short comments implies the opinions which rate the target entity. In this paper, we aim to mine and to summarize all the customer comments of a product. The algorithm proposed in this researchis more reliable on opinion identification because it is unsupervised and the accuracy of the result improves as the number of comments increases. Our research is performed in four steps: (1) mining the frequent aspects of a product that have been commented on by customers; (2) mining the infrequent aspects of a product which have been commented by customers (3) identifying opinion words in each comment and deciding whether each opinion word is positive, negative or neutral; (4) summarizing the comments. This paper proposes several novel techniques to perform these tasks. Our experimental results using comments of a number of products sold online demonstrate the effectiveness of the techniques.

  2. Opinion: Writing for the Public

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rose, Mike

    2010-01-01

    For the past twenty years or so, the author has been fortunate to write for a fairly broad audience. While he was teaching, or running an educational program, or doing research, he was also composing opinion pieces or commentaries about the work he was doing. This process of writing with part of his attention on the classroom or research site and…

  3. Expert elicitation for a national-level volcano hazard model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bebbington, Mark; Stirling, Mark; Cronin, Shane; Wang, Ting; Jolly, Gill

    2016-04-01

    The quantification of volcanic hazard at national level is a vital pre-requisite to placing volcanic risk on a platform that permits meaningful comparison with other hazards such as earthquakes. New Zealand has up to a dozen dangerous volcanoes, with the usual mixed degrees of knowledge concerning their temporal and spatial eruptive history. Information on the 'size' of the eruptions, be it in terms of VEI, volume or duration, is sketchy at best. These limitations and the need for a uniform approach lend themselves to a subjective hazard analysis via expert elicitation. Approximately 20 New Zealand volcanologists provided estimates for the size of the next eruption from each volcano and, conditional on this, its location, timing and duration. Opinions were likewise elicited from a control group of statisticians, seismologists and (geo)chemists, all of whom had at least heard the term 'volcano'. The opinions were combined via the Cooke classical method. We will report on the preliminary results from the exercise.

  4. Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

    1992-01-01

    Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

  5. System Experts and Decision Making Experts in Transdisciplinary Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mieg, Harald A.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…

  6. Taxane anticancer agents: a patent perspective

    PubMed Central

    Ojima, Iwao; Lichtenthal, Brendan; Lee, Siyeon; Wang, Changwei; Wang, Xin

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Paclitaxel and docetaxel were two epoch-making anticancer drugs and have been successfully used in chemotherapy for a variety of cancer types. In 2010, a new taxane, cabazitaxel, was approved by FDA for use in combination with prednisone for the treatment of metastatic hormone-refractory prostate cancer. Albumin-bound paclitaxel (nab™-paclitaxel; abraxane) nanodroplet formulation was another notable invention (FDA approval 2005 for refractory, metastatic, or relapsed breast cancer). Abraxane in combination with gemcitabine for the treatment of pancreatic cancer was approved by FDA in 2013. Accordingly, there have been a huge number of patent applications dealing with taxane anticancer agents in the last five years. Thus, it is a good time to review the progress in this area and find the next wave for new developments. Area covered This review article covers the patent literature from 2010 to early 2015 on various aspects of taxane-based chemotherapies and drug developments. Expert opinion Three FDA-approved taxane anticancer drugs will continue to expand their therapeutic applications, especially through drug combinations and new formulations. Inspired by the success of abraxane, new nano-formulations are emerging. Highly potent new-generation taxanes will play a key role in the development of efficacious tumor-targeted drug delivery systems. PMID:26651178

  7. Phase transitions in Nowak Sznajd opinion dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wołoszyn, Maciej; Stauffer, Dietrich; Kułakowski, Krzysztof

    2007-05-01

    The Nowak modification of the Sznajd opinion dynamics model on the square lattice assumes that with probability β the opinions flip due to mass-media advertising from down to up, and vice versa. Besides, with probability α the Sznajd rule applies that a neighbour pair agreeing in its two opinions convinces all its six neighbours of that opinion. Our Monte Carlo simulations and mean-field theory find sharp phase transitions in the parameter space.

  8. Artificial Intelligence: The Expert Way.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bitter, Gary G.

    1989-01-01

    Discussion of artificial intelligence (AI) and expert systems focuses on their use in education. Characteristics of good expert systems are explained; computer software programs that contain applications of AI are described, highlighting one used to help educators identify learning-disabled students; and the future of AI is discussed. (LRW)

  9. Expert Systems in Reference Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roysdon, Christine, Ed.; White, Howard D., Ed.

    1989-01-01

    Eleven articles introduce expert systems applications in library and information science, and present design and implementation issues of system development for reference services. Topics covered include knowledge based systems, prototype development, the use of artificial intelligence to remedy current system inadequacies, and an expert system to…

  10. Expert Systems and Special Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hofmeister, Alan M.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

    The application of artificial intelligence to the problems of education is examined. One of the most promising areas in artificial intelligence is expert systems technology which engages the user in a problem-solving diaglogue. Some of the characteristics that make expert systems "intelligent" are identified and exemplified. The rise of…

  11. The Undecided Have the Key: Interaction-Driven Opinion Dynamics in a Three State Model

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The effects of interpersonal interactions on individual’s agreements result in a social aggregation process which is reflected in the formation of collective states, as for instance, groups of individuals with a similar opinion about a given issue. This field, which has been a longstanding concern of sociologists and psychologists, has been extended into an area of experimental social psychology, and even has attracted the attention of physicists and mathematicians. In this article, we present a novel model of opinion formation in which agents may either have a strict preference for a choice, or be undecided. The opinion shift emerges, in a threshold process, as a consequence of a cumulative persuasion for either one of the two opinions in repeated interactions. There are two main ingredients which play key roles in determining the steady states: the initial fraction of undecided agents and the change in agents’ persuasion after each interaction. As a function of these two parameters, the model presents a wide range of solutions, among which there are consensus of each opinion and bi-polarization. We found that a minimum fraction of undecided agents is not crucial for reaching consensus only, but also to determine a dominant opinion in a polarized situation. In order to gain a deeper comprehension of the dynamics, we also present the theoretical framework of the model. The master equations are of special interest for their nontrivial properties and difficulties in being solved analytically. PMID:26436421

  12. Opinion Expression as a Rational Behavior.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Sei-Hill

    This study looks at individuals' opinion expressions as a rational behavior based on a conscious calculus of expected benefits and costs (economic analysis). The influences of "issue benefit,""opinion congruence," and "issue knowledge," as sources of benefits and costs on opinion expression were hypothesized and tested. The study also examined the…

  13. Identifying Opinion Leaders to Promote Behavior Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Valente, Thomas W.; Pumpuang, Patchareeya

    2007-01-01

    This article reviews 10 techniques used to identify opinion leaders to promote behavior change. Opinion leaders can act as gatekeepers for interventions, help change social norms, and accelerate behavior change. Few studies document the manner in which opinion leaders are identified, recruited, and trained to promote health. The authors categorize…

  14. Threat expert system technology advisor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kurrasch, E. R.; Tripp, L. R.

    1987-01-01

    A prototype expert system was developed to determine the feasibility of using expert system technology to enhance the performance and survivability of helicopter pilots in a combat threat environment while flying NOE (Nap of the Earth) missions. The basis for the concept is the potential of using an Expert System Advisor to reduce the extreme overloading of the pilot who flies NOE mission below treetop level at approximately 40 knots while performing several other functions. The ultimate goal is to develop a Threat Expert System Advisor which provides threat information and advice that are better than even a highly experienced copilot. The results clearly show that the NOE pilot needs all the help in decision aiding and threat situation awareness that he can get. It clearly shows that heuristics are important and that an expert system for combat NOE helicopter missions can be of great help to the pilot in complex threat situations and in making decisions.

  15. Engineering monitoring expert system's developer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lo, Ching F.

    1991-01-01

    This research project is designed to apply artificial intelligence technology including expert systems, dynamic interface of neural networks, and hypertext to construct an expert system developer. The developer environment is specifically suited to building expert systems which monitor the performance of ground support equipment for propulsion systems and testing facilities. The expert system developer, through the use of a graphics interface and a rule network, will be transparent to the user during rule constructing and data scanning of the knowledge base. The project will result in a software system that allows its user to build specific monitoring type expert systems which monitor various equipments used for propulsion systems or ground testing facilities and accrues system performance information in a dynamic knowledge base.

  16. What defines an Expert? - Uncertainty in the interpretation of seismic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bond, C. E.

    2008-12-01

    Studies focusing on the elicitation of information from experts are concentrated primarily in economics and world markets, medical practice and expert witness testimonies. Expert elicitation theory has been applied in the natural sciences, most notably in the prediction of fluid flow in hydrological studies. In the geological sciences expert elicitation has been limited to theoretical analysis with studies focusing on the elicitation element, gaining expert opinion rather than necessarily understanding the basis behind the expert view. In these cases experts are defined in a traditional sense, based for example on: standing in the field, no. of years of experience, no. of peer reviewed publications, the experts position in a company hierarchy or academia. Here traditional indicators of expertise have been compared for significance on affective seismic interpretation. Polytomous regression analysis has been used to assess the relative significance of length and type of experience on the outcome of a seismic interpretation exercise. Following the initial analysis the techniques used by participants to interpret the seismic image were added as additional variables to the analysis. Specific technical skills and techniques were found to be more important for the affective geological interpretation of seismic data than the traditional indicators of expertise. The results of a seismic interpretation exercise, the techniques used to interpret the seismic and the participant's prior experience have been combined and analysed to answer the question - who is and what defines an expert?

  17. Expert Recommendations for First-Line Management of Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma in Special Subpopulations.

    PubMed

    Puente, Javier; García Del Muro, Xavier; Pinto, Álvaro; Láinez, Nuria; Esteban, Emilio; Arranz, José Ángel; Gallardo, Enrique; Méndez, María José; Maroto, Pablo; Grande, Enrique; Suárez, Cristina

    2016-04-01

    The availability of agents targeting the vascular endothelial growth factor or mammalian target of rapamycin [mTOR] pathways has provided new treatment options for patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Based on the results of pivotal randomized clinical trials, specific recommendations have been established for management of these patients in first- and second-line settings. However, certain subgroups of patients may be excluded or under-represented in clinical trials, including patients with poor performance status, brain metastases, and cardiac or renal comorbidities, elderly patients, and those with non-clear cell histology. For these subpopulations, management recommendations have emerged from expanded access programs (EAPs), small phase II studies, retrospective analysis of clinical data, and expert opinion. This paper describes recommendations from an expert panel for the treatment of metastatic RCC in these subpopulations. The efficacy of targeted agents appears to be inferior in these patient subgroups relative to the general RCC population. Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) and mTOR inhibitors can be administered safely to elderly patients and those with poor performance status, although dose and schedule modifications are often needed, and close monitoring and management of adverse events is essential. In addition to local surgical treatment and radiotherapy for brain metastases, systemic treatment with a TKI should be offered as part of multidisciplinary care.While there are currently no data from randomized trials, sunitinib has the greatest body of evidence, and it should be considered the first choice in patients with a good prognosis. Patients with an acute cardiac event within the previous 6 months, New York Heart Association grade III heart failure, or uncontrolled high blood pressure should not be treated with TKIs. In patients with mild or moderate renal failure, there are no contraindications to TKI treatment. TKIs can be

  18. Characteristics of successful opinion leaders in a bounded confidence model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Shuwei; Glass, David H.; McCartney, Mark

    2016-05-01

    This paper analyses the impact of competing opinion leaders on attracting followers in a social group based on a bounded confidence model in terms of four characteristics: reputation, stubbornness, appeal and extremeness. In the model, reputation differs among leaders and normal agents based on the weights assigned to them, stubbornness of leaders is reflected by their confidence towards normal agents, appeal of the leaders is represented by the confidence of followers towards them, and extremeness is captured by the opinion values of leaders. Simulations show that increasing reputation, stubbornness or extremeness makes it more difficult for the group to achieve consensus, but increasing the appeal will make it easier. The results demonstrate that successful opinion leaders should generally be less stubborn, have greater appeal and be less extreme in order to attract more followers in a competing environment. Furthermore, the number of followers can be very sensitive to small changes in these characteristics. On the other hand, reputation has a more complicated impact: higher reputation helps the leader to attract more followers when the group bound of confidence is high, but can hinder the leader from attracting followers when the group bound of confidence is low.

  19. Critical Resources for Hospital Surge Capacity: An Expert Consensus Panel

    PubMed Central

    Bayram, Jamil D.; Sauer, Lauren M.; Catlett, Christina; Levin, Scott; Cole, Gai; Kirsch, Thomas D.; Toerper, Matthew; Kelen, Gabor

    2013-01-01

    Background: Hospital surge capacity (HSC) is dependent on the ability to increase or conserve resources. The hospital surge model put forth by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) estimates the resources needed by hospitals to treat casualties resulting from 13 national planning scenarios. However, emergency planners need to know which hospital resource are most critical in order to develop a more accurate plan for HSC in the event of a disaster. Objective: To identify critical hospital resources required in four specific catastrophic scenarios; namely, pandemic influenza, radiation, explosive, and nerve gas. Methods: We convened an expert consensus panel comprised of 23 participants representing health providers (i.e., nurses and physicians), administrators, emergency planners, and specialists. Four disaster scenarios were examined by the panel. Participants were divided into 4 groups of five or six members, each of which were assigned two of four scenarios. They were asked to consider 132 hospital patient care resources- extracted from the AHRQ's hospital surge model- in order to identify the ones that would be critical in their opinion to patient care. The definition for a critical hospital resource was the following: absence of the resource is likely to have a major impact on patient outcomes, i.e., high likelihood of untoward event, possibly death. For items with any disagreement in ranking, we conducted a facilitated discussion (modified Delphi technique) until consensus was reached, which was defined as more than 50% agreement. Intraclass Correlation Coefficients (ICC) were calculated for each scenario, and across all scenarios as a measure of participant agreement on critical resources. For the critical resources common to all scenarios, Kruskal-Wallis test was performed to measure the distribution of scores across all scenarios. Results: Of the 132 hospital resources, 25 were considered critical for all four scenarios by more than 50% of

  20. Expert systems for personnel assignment

    SciTech Connect

    Hardee, J.L.; Liepins, G.

    1986-01-01

    In order to reduce stress on assignment personnel (detailers) and ensure maximum fairness and consistency in the Navy's personnel assignment process, The Navy Military Personnel Command (NMPC) has begun to explore the potential use of expert systems to supplement current manual and computerized distribution methods. The Detailer's Assistant expert system is being developed to improve the detailers' ability to satisfy the needs of their constituents and Navy management. An initial prototype of the Detailer's Assistant is now being evaluated. Numerous upgrades and extensions should lead to an operational system in the near future. Further development to a production system will involve additional research in machine learning, intelligent database methods, and cooperating expert systems.

  1. Expert Witness: A system for developing expert medical testimony

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lewandowski, Raymond; Perkins, David; Leasure, David

    1994-01-01

    Expert Witness in an expert system designed to assist attorneys and medical experts in determining the merit of medical malpractice claims in the area of obstetrics. It substitutes the time of the medical expert with the time of a paralegal assistant guided by the expert system during the initial investigation of the medical records and patient interviews. The product of the system is a narrative transcript containing important data, immediate conclusions from the data, and overall conclusions of the case that the attorney and medical expert use to make decisions about whether and how to proceed with the case. The transcript may also contain directives for gathering additional information needed for the case. The system is a modified heuristic classifier and is implemented using over 600 CLIPS rules together with a C-based user interface. The data abstraction and solution refinement are implemented directly using forward chaining production and matching. The use of CLIPS and C is essential to delivering a system that runs on a generic PC platform. The direct implementation in CLIPS together with locality of inference ensures that the system will scale gracefully. Two years of use has revealed no errors in the reasoning.

  2. Methylselenocysteine - a Promising Antiangiogenic Agent for Overcoming Drug Delivery Barriers in Solid Malignancies for Therapeutic Synergy with Anticancer Drugs

    PubMed Central

    Bhattacharya, Arup

    2011-01-01

    Introduction Despite progress, chemotherapeutic response in solid malignancies has remained limited. While initial results of the use of antiangiogenic agents in combination chemotherapy indicated an enhanced therapeutic response, recent data indicates that the surviving cancer is not only able to surmount therapy, but is actually able to adapt a more aggressive metastatic phenotype. Thus, selecting an antiangiogenic agent that is less likely to lead to tumor resurgence is a key to future therapeutic success of antiangiogenic agents, in a combinatorial setting. Areas covered Against the broad spectrum of currently used antiangiogenic agents in the clinic, the putative benefits of the use of organo selenium (Se) compounds, such as methylselenocysteine (MSC), are discussed in this reiew. Expert opinion MSC, being part of the mammalian physiology, is a well tolerated, versatile and economical antiangiogenic agent. It down regulates multiple key upstream tumor survival markers, and enhances tumor drug delivery, at a given systemic dose of an anticancer agent, while protecting normal tissue from cytotoxic adverse effects. Further clinical trials, especially in poorly differentiated cancers, are warranted. PMID:21473705

  3. Expert views on societal responses to different applications of nanotechnology: a comparative analysis of experts in countries with different economic and regulatory environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; George, Saji; Frewer, Lynn J.

    2013-08-01

    The introduction of different applications of nanotechnology will be informed by expert views regarding which (types of) application will be most societally acceptable. Previous research in Northern Europe has indicated that experts believe that various factors will be influential, predominant among these being public perceptions of benefit, need and consumer concern about contact with nanomaterials. These factors are thought by experts to differentiate societal acceptance and rejection of nanotechnology applications. This research utilises a larger sample of experts ( N = 67) drawn from Northern America, Europe, Australasia, India and Singapore to examine differences in expert opinion regarding societal acceptance of different applications of nanotechnology within different technological environments, consumer cultures and regulatory regimes. Perceived risk and consumer concerns regarding contact with nano-particles are thought by all experts to drive rejection, and perceived benefits to influence acceptance, independent of country. Encapsulation and delivery of nutrients in food was thought to be the most likely to raise societal concerns, while targeted drug delivery was thought most likely to be accepted. Lack of differentiation between countries suggests that expert views regarding social acceptance may be homogenous, independent of local contextual factors.

  4. The nutrition advisor expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huse, Scott M.; Shyne, Scott S.

    1991-01-01

    The Nutrition Advisor Expert System (NAES) is an expert system written in the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS). NAES provides expert knowledge and guidance into the complex world of nutrition management by capturing the knowledge of an expert and placing it at the user's fingertips. Specifically, NAES enables the user to: (1) obtain precise nutrition information for food items; (2) perform nutritional analysis of meal(s), flagging deficiencies based upon the U.S. Recommended Daily Allowances; (3) predict possible ailments based upon observed nutritional deficiency trends; (4) obtain a top ten listing of food items for a given nutrient; and (5) conveniently upgrade the data base. An explanation facility for the ailment prediction feature is also provided to document the reasoning process.

  5. Expert Systems in Clinical Microbiology

    PubMed Central

    Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

    2011-01-01

    Summary: This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the “big three”: Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically. PMID:21734247

  6. Range of interaction in an opinion evolution model of ideological self-positioning: Contagion, hesitance and polarization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gimenez, M. Cecilia; Paz García, Ana Pamela; Burgos Paci, Maxi A.; Reinaudi, Luis

    2016-04-01

    The evolution of public opinion using tools and concepts borrowed from Statistical Physics is an emerging area within the field of Sociophysics. In the present paper, a Statistical Physics model was developed to study the evolution of the ideological self-positioning of an ensemble of agents. The model consists of an array of L components, each one of which represents the ideology of an agent. The proposed mechanism is based on the "voter model", in which one agent can adopt the opinion of another one if the difference of their opinions lies within a certain range. The existence of "undecided" agents (i.e. agents with no definite opinion) was implemented in the model. The possibility of radicalization of an agent's opinion upon interaction with another one was also implemented. The results of our simulations are compared to statistical data taken from the Latinobarómetro databank for the cases of Argentina, Chile, Brazil and Uruguay in the last decade. Among other results, the effect of taking into account the undecided agents is the formation of a single peak at the middle of the ideological spectrum (which corresponds to a centrist ideological position), in agreement with the real cases studied.

  7. Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Yvette B.; Mccall, Kurt E.

    1992-01-01

    The Nickel Cadmium Battery Expert System-2, or 'NICBES-2', which was used by the NASA HST six-battery testbed, was subsequently converted into the Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System, or 'NICHES'. Accounts are presently given of this conversion process and future uses being contemplated for NICHES. NICHES will calculate orbital summary data at the end of each orbit, and store these files for trend analyses and rules-generation.

  8. Decidedly different: Expert and public views of risks from a radioactive waste repository

    SciTech Connect

    Flynn, J.; Slovic, P.; Mertz, C.K. )

    1993-12-01

    A questionnaire with items that had been used in a national survey of the general public was administered to persons attending an American Nuclear Society meeting. The items asked about risks associated with high-level nuclear waste (HLNW), trust in nuclear-waste program managers, costs and benefits of a repository project, and images of a HLNW repository. The results suggest that nuclear industry experts may have very different opinions from the general public about most of these items and their images of a repository indicate a vastly different conceptual framework within which their opinions are formed. 8 refs., 4 tabs.

  9. SENLEX: sensor layout expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Ward, J.D.; Sena, K.J.

    1986-01-01

    An expert system is under development to carry out intrusion detection sensor placement for physical security systems. Expert systems are computer programs that use symbolic programming techniques to duplicate the reasoning processes of human experts. Because sensitive facilities often require complex, multi-sensor intrusion detection systems, the design rules for achieving high levels of detection performance are not easily transferred to novices. Since these design rules reside in the minds of the individual experts performing the tasks, the need to consolidate this knowledge in a form that is available to others was a driving force in this project. The first phase of this project is described in this paper. It consists of an expert system for sensor placement in a graded clear zone. The program has the capability of handling several different sensor types and of coordinating the placement of multiple sensor types. The designs produced by the program in comparison with the designs produced by human experts are discussed. 5 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

  10. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, Sonie; Yan, Jerry C.

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 1990s cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient implementation of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real-time demands are met for larger systems. Speedup via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial laboratories in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems is surveyed. The survey discusses multiprocessors for expert systems, parallel languages for symbolic computations, and mapping expert systems to multiprocessors. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. The main reasons are (1) the body of knowledge applicable in any given situation and the amount of computation executed by each rule firing are small, (2) dividing the problem solving process into relatively independent partitions is difficult, and (3) implementation decisions that enable expert systems to be incrementally refined hamper compile-time optimization. In order to obtain greater speedups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  11. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yan, Jerry C.; Lau, Sonie

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 90's cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient use of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real time demands are met for large expert systems. Speed-up via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial labs in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems was surveyed. The survey is divided into three major sections: (1) multiprocessors for parallel expert systems; (2) parallel languages for symbolic computations; and (3) measurements of parallelism of expert system. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. In order to obtain greater speed-ups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  12. Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, M. Granger

    2014-01-01

    The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making. PMID:24821779

  13. Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Unal, Resit; Keating, Charles; Conway, Bruce; Chytka, Trina

    2004-01-01

    A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.

  14. Co-Evolution of Opinion and Strategy in Persuasion Dynamics:. AN Evolutionary Game Theoretical Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, Fei; Liu, Yun; Li, Yong

    In this paper, a new model of opinion formation within the framework of evolutionary game theory is presented. The model simulates strategic situations when people are in opinion discussion. Heterogeneous agents adjust their behaviors to the environment during discussions, and their interacting strategies evolve together with opinions. In the proposed game, we take into account payoff discount to join a discussion, and the situation that people might drop out of an unpromising game. Analytical and emulational results show that evolution of opinion and strategy always tend to converge, with utility threshold, memory length, and decision uncertainty parameters influencing the convergence time. The model displays different dynamical regimes when we set differently the rule when people are at a loss in strategy.

  15. Noise-induced absorbing phase transition in a model of opinion formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vieira, Allan R.; Crokidakis, Nuno

    2016-08-01

    In this work we study a 3-state (+1, -1, 0) opinion model in the presence of noise and disorder. We consider pairwise competitive interactions, with a fraction p of those interactions being negative (disorder). Moreover, there is a noise q that represents the probability of an individual spontaneously change his opinion to the neutral state. Our aim is to study how the increase/decrease of the fraction of neutral agents affects the critical behavior of the system and the evolution of opinions. We derive analytical expressions for the order parameter of the model, as well as for the stationary fraction of each opinion, and we show that there are distinct phase transitions. One is the usual ferro-paramagnetic transition, that is in the Ising universality class. In addition, there are para-absorbing and ferro-absorbing transitions, presenting the directed percolation universality class. Our results are complemented by numerical simulations.

  16. Information Needs and Visitors' Experience of an Internet Expert Forum on Infertility

    PubMed Central

    Meyer, Juliane; Kochen, Michael M; Michelmann, Hans Wilhelm

    2005-01-01

    -third of visitors (n = 199) sent detailed results of diagnostic tests and asked for a first or second opinion. Requests to the expert forum were also sent in order to obtain emotional support (17%) or to complain about a doctor (15%). Conclusions Visitors who sent their laboratory findings to receive a thorough evaluation or a second opinion had a good command of the opportunities that an expert forum offers. One important expectation of the forum was emotional support, indicating psychological needs that were not met by medical providers. Future websites must find a compromise in order to protect experts from being overwhelmed by general, nonspecific requests while supporting patients with individualized answers. PMID:15998611

  17. Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

    PubMed Central

    Pedrini, Paolo; Brambilla, Mattia; Rolando, Antonio; Girardello, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds). For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community. PMID:26966659

  18. Grass carp in the Great Lakes region: establishment potential, expert perceptions, and re-evaluation of experimental evidence of ecological impact

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wittmann, Marion E.; Jerde, Christopher L.; Howeth, Jennifer G.; Maher, Sean P.; Deines, Andrew M.; Jenkins, Jill A.; Whitledge, Gregory W.; Burbank, Sarah B.; Chadderton, William L.; Mahon, Andrew R.; Tyson, Jeffrey T.; Gantz, Crysta A.; Keller, Reuben P.; Drake, John M.; Lodge, David M.

    2014-01-01

    Intentional introductions of nonindigenous fishes are increasing globally. While benefits of these introductions are easily quantified, assessments to understand the negative impacts to ecosystems are often difficult, incomplete, or absent. Grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) was originally introduced to the United States as a biocontrol agent, and recent observations of wild, diploid individuals in the Great Lakes basin have spurred interest in re-evaluating its ecological risk. Here, we evaluate the ecological impact of grass carp using expert opinion and a suite of the most up-to-date analytical tools and data (ploidy assessment, eDNA surveillance, species distribution models (SDMs), and meta-analysis). The perceived ecological impact of grass carp by fisheries experts was variable, ranging from unknown to very high. Wild-caught triploid and diploid individuals occurred in multiple Great Lakes waterways, and eDNA surveillance suggests that grass carp are abundant in a major tributary of Lake Michigan. SDMs predicted suitable grass carp climate occurs in all Great Lakes. Meta-analysis showed that grass carp introductions impact both water quality and biota. Novel findings based on updated ecological impact assessment tools indicate that iterative risk assessment of introduced fishes may be warranted.

  19. A gene mapping expert system.

    PubMed

    Galland, J; Skolnick, M H

    1990-08-01

    Expert systems are now commonly developed to solve practical problems. Nevertheless, genetics has just begun to benefit from this new technology, since genetic expert systems are extremely rare and often purely experimental. A prototype for risk calculation in pedigrees was developed at the University of Utah, using a commercial frames/rules developmental shell (Intelligence Compiler), which runs on an IBM PC. When small data sets were used, the implementation functioned well, but it could not handle larger data sets. Performance became a major issue, with two possible solutions. The first possibility would have been to port the system to a more powerful machine, and the second would have been to use several different shells or languages, each efficiently representing a specific type of knowledge. Neither of these solutions was applicable in this case. From this experience, we learned that performance, portability, and modifiability were three major requirements for genetic expert systems. To achieve these goals, we implemented the gene mapping expert system GMES: (GMES is unrelated to the gene mapping system, GMS in Lisp combined with a frame/object shell (FROBS). We were able to efficiently represent, control, and optimize a gene mapping experiment, achieving portability by building GMES on top of a C-based version of Common Lisp. Lisp combined with the FROBS expert system shell permitted a declarative representation of each of the components of the experiment, resulting in a transplant specification of the problem within a maintainable system.

  20. Expert system application education project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.

    1988-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.

  1. [Possibilities of medical opinionating in cases associated with "exposure to direct danger of death or serious health damage"].

    PubMed

    Konopka, Tomasz; Skupień, Elzbieta

    2008-01-01

    In the opinion of some forensic medicine experts, assessment of potential consequences in keeping with Article 160 of the Polish Penal code, which refers to the crime of "exposure to direct danger of death or severe health damage", lies within the competence of medicolegal specialists. This view is accepted by courts and prosecution offices. However, the knowledge of physicians in the field of predicting consequences which did not occur is only somewhat better than that of lawyers. In simple cases, e.g. in trauma involving a sensitive area of the body, passing an opinion confirming a serious danger is not associated with any major problems. Similarly, no problems arise when passing an opinion on the lack of such a danger e.g. in the case of traumawithout any injuries. In complex cases, however, which include the majority of medical error cases, passing an opinion on exposure to direct danger of death or severe health damage may be not feasible.

  2. Implementing and expanding HIV testing in immigrant populations in Europe: Comparing guideline's recommendations and expert's opinions.

    PubMed

    Álvarez-Del Arco, Débora; Monge, Susana; Rivero-Montesdeoca, Yaiza; Burns, Fiona; Noori, Teymur; Del Amo, Julia

    2017-01-01

    Immigrant populations, especially those from endemic countries, living in the European Union (EU) suffer a disproportionate burden of HIV, delayed diagnosis and poorer access to antiretroviral treatment. While International Organisations are developing recommendations aimed at increasing the uptake of HIV testing, the feasibility and real outcomes of these measures remain unexplored. The aim of this review was, firstly to identify the recommendations of the main International Organisations (IO) on HIV testing in immigrants. Secondly, to describe the challenges for implementing and expanding HIV testing and counselling interventions targeting immigrants by interviewing key informants. The importance of HIV testing in immigrants is discussed, along with the appropriateness of universal HIV testing approaches vs most at risk targeted approaches. Also addressed is, pre- and post-HIV test counselling characteristics and community initiatives suitable to reach this population and, finally the legal issues regarding access to treatment for illegal immigrants.

  3. Expert opinion and controversies in musculoskeletal and sports medicine: preventing sudden cardiac death in young athletes.

    PubMed

    Rao, Ashwin L; Standaert, Christopher J; Drezner, Jonathan A; Herring, Stanley A

    2010-06-01

    Sudden cardiac death in young athletes has become a highly visible public health concern. Over the past 2 decades, unexplained or premature deaths of numerous athletes at the youth, collegiate, and professional levels have garnered extensive media coverage and stimulated a discussion centered on prevention of such tragic events. A number of issues related to the prevention and management of sudden cardiac arrest on the playing field are currently debated in the medical literature, including the true incidence of sudden death in the young athletic population, the adequacy of the preparticipation physical evaluation, and the emergency response and effectiveness of secondary prevention strategies such as use of automated external defibrillators in the athletic setting. Clinicians who care for competitive athletes and/or cover youth sporting events must be aware of the benefits and limitations of different preparticipation screening programs to identify at-risk athletes, and they must be prepared to respond to life-threatening emergencies during athletic participation.

  4. New Technologies for Diagnosing Pediatric Tumors Expert Opinion on Medical Diagnostics

    PubMed Central

    Wei, Jun S.; Badgett, Thomas C.; Khan, Javed

    2008-01-01

    Background The completion of Human Genome Project (HGP) has paved the way for novel, more detailed and accurate molecular diagnostic classification of cancer. With the information from the HGP, cancers can be categorized not only on the morphology or limited immunohistological markers, but according to their “molecular fingerprints” such as gene expression profiles. Technologies detecting these signatures have been developed to simultaneously measure multiple genes or proteins in one assay with high sensitivity and specificity. Objective To evaluate potential innovative novel methods of diagnosis and prognosis in pediatric cancers. Methods We selected a variety of promising new diagnostic technologies utilizing molecular signatures which harness the results from HGP including DNA microarray, bead-based detection system, multiplexed RT-PCR, MesoScale Discovery (MSD), and isotope-coded affinity tag (ICAT), as well as their applications in biomarker discovery for pediatric tumors. Label-free detection technologies and the obstacles for taking these new diagnostic technologies from the bench to the bedside are also discussed. Conclusion The use of molecular signatures is gaining acceptance in clinical practice. However, technical challenges need to be addressed before incorporating these new technologies into current diagnostic and prognostic schema. PMID:19554203

  5. Combining Facts and Expert Opinion in Analytical Models via Logical and Probabilistic Reasoning

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-04-01

    worlds in which no birds fly and worlds in which all birds but one fly. 26 6.0 References [1] John Cheng, Ray Emami, Larry Kerschberg...BALER………..Bayesian and Logical Engine for Reasoning BC-Hugin……...Big Clique Hugin BN……………..Bayesian Network BRUSE………..Bayesian Reasoning Using

  6. Refinement of the Long-Term Conditions Questionnaire (LTCQ): patient and expert stakeholder opinion

    PubMed Central

    Kelly, Laura; Potter, Caroline M; Hunter, Cheryl; Gibbons, Elizabeth; Fitzpatrick, Ray; Jenkinson, Crispin; Peters, Michele

    2016-01-01

    Purpose It is a key UK government priority to assess and improve outcomes in people with long-term conditions (LTCs). We are developing a new patient-reported outcome measure, the Long-Term Conditions Questionnaire (LTCQ), for use among people with single or multiple LTCs. This study aimed to refine candidate LTCQ items that had previously been informed through literature reviews, interviews with professional stakeholders, and interviews with people with LTCs. Materials and methods Cognitive interviews (n=32) with people living with LTCs and consultations with professional stakeholders (n=13) and public representatives (n=5) were conducted to assess the suitability of 23 candidate items. Items were tested for content and comprehensibility and underwent a translatability assessment. Results Four rounds of revisions took place, due to amendments to item structure, improvements to item clarity, item duplication, and recommendations for future translations. Twenty items were confirmed as relevant to living with LTCs and understandable to patients and professionals. Conclusion This study supports the content validity of the LTCQ items among people with LTCs and professional stakeholders. The final items are suitable to enter the next stage of psychometric refinement. PMID:27895523

  7. Recurrent Issues in Efforts to Prevent Homicidal Youth Violence in Schools: Expert Opinions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dill, Karen E.; Redding, Richard E.; Smith, Peter K.; Surette, Ray; Cornell, Dewey G.

    2011-01-01

    Developmental research on social influences on adolescents can guide practices aimed to prevent homicidal youth violence. School shootings have repeatedly raised questions about the contributory role of bullying and entertainment violence, how news media publicity might produce copycat crimes, and whether stiffer criminal sanctions might have a…

  8. Expert Opinions on Postsecondary Outdoor Adventure Risk Management Curriculum Design: A Research Note

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harper, Nevin

    2007-01-01

    A study of outdoor adventure risk management education was conducted in the fall of 2003 following the devastating avalanche season of winter 2002-2003, which took close to 50 lives in North America. The study was guided by the desire to better understand effective risk management training of outdoor adventure leaders in postsecondary…

  9. Expert opinion on the management of infections in the diabetic foot.

    PubMed

    Lipsky, B A; Peters, E J G; Senneville, E; Berendt, A R; Embil, J M; Lavery, L A; Urbančič-Rovan, V; Jeffcoate, W J

    2012-02-01

    This update of the International Working Group on the Diabetic Foot incorporates some information from a related review of diabetic foot osteomyelitis (DFO) and a systematic review of the management of infection of the diabetic foot. The pathophysiology of these infections is now well understood, and there is a validated system for classifying the severity of infections based on their clinical findings. Diagnosing osteomyelitis remains difficult, but several recent publications have clarified the role of clinical, laboratory and imaging tests. Magnetic resonance imaging has emerged as the most accurate means of diagnosing bone infection, but bone biopsy for culture and histopathology remains the criterion standard. Determining the organisms responsible for a diabetic foot infection via culture of appropriately collected tissue specimens enables clinicians to make optimal antibiotic choices based on culture and sensitivity results. In addition to culture-directed antibiotic therapy, most infections require some surgical intervention, ranging from minor debridement to major resection, amputation or revascularization. Clinicians must also provide proper wound care to ensure healing of the wound. Various adjunctive therapies may benefit some patients, but the data supporting them are weak. If properly treated, most diabetic foot infections can be cured. Providers practising in developing countries, and their patients, face especially challenging situations.

  10. ExpertsOpinions on the Reliability Gap and Some Practical Guidelines on Reliability Growth

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-09-01

    and found the ratio of the disparity to range 2 from 2.1:1 to 9.1:1 (38:231). Furthermore, Montemayor (54) studied the reliability gap between...Production, 17 October 1986. 54. Montemayor , A. J. "Achieved versus Predicted Mean-Time-Between-Failures (M.TBF)." The Boeing Company, D194-300341, March

  11. Prioritizing multiple health behavior change research topics: expert opinions in behavior change science.

    PubMed

    Amato, Katie; Park, Eunhee; Nigg, Claudio R

    2016-06-01

    Multiple health behavior change (MHBC) approaches are understudied. The purpose of this study is to provide strategic MHBC research direction. This cross-sectional study contacted participants through the Society of Behavioral Medicine email listservs and rated the importance of 24 MHBC research topics (1 = not at all important, 5 = extremely important) separately for general and underserved populations. Participants (n = 76) were 79 % female; 76 % White, 10 % Asian, 8 % African American, 5 % Hispanic, and 1 % Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander. Top MHBC research priorities were predictors of behavior change and the sustainability, long-term effects, and dissemination/translation of interventions for both populations. Recruitment and retention of participants (t(68) = 2.17, p = 0.000), multi-behavioral indices (t(68) = 3.54, p = 0.001), and measurement burden (t(67) = 5.04, p = 0.001) were important for the underserved. Results identified the same top research priorities across populations. For the underserved, research should emphasize recruitment, retention, and measurement burden.

  12. An expert's opinion on what lies ahead in the field of alternative drug delivery.

    PubMed

    Goswami, Tarun

    2017-01-01

    Tarun Goswami speaks to Hannah Makin, Commissioning Editor: Tarun Goswami obtained his BS (Pharmacy) in 2003 from Delhi University (India) and his PhD in Pharmaceutical Sciences in 2008 from the University of the Pacific (CA, USA). He currently works at Amneal Pharmaceuticals as a Formulation Scientist in the Transdermal Drug Delivery Group. Having published multiple abstracts and articles in the area of transdermal and oral mucosal drug delivery, his current interests include the development of drug products that are administered via alternate routes such as through the skin and oral mucosa.

  13. 22 CFR 172.9 - Prohibition on providing expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... PROCESS; PRODUCTION OR DISCLOSURE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION IN RESPONSE TO COURT ORDERS, SUBPOENAS, NOTICES OF DEPOSITIONS, REQUESTS FOR ADMISSIONS, INTERROGATORIES, OR SIMILAR REQUESTS OR DEMANDS...

  14. Expert opinion and controversies in sports and musculoskeletal medicine: concussion in the young athlete.

    PubMed

    Standaert, Christopher J; Herring, Stanley A; Cantu, Robert C

    2007-08-01

    Concussion is a common injury in young athletes and can be very challenging for clinicians to diagnose and manage. Debate exists over not only the incidence of long-term risks of multiple concussions but also the potential for catastrophic outcomes after sports-related head injury. Decisions on returning athletes to competition can be difficult, and there are limited prospective data on which to make these decisions. This has resulted in the existence of a number of published guidelines and consensus statements on the management of concussion in athletes. Athletes sustaining a concussion need appropriate on-field care and structured follow-up. Baseline cognitive assessments can be helpful, but clinicians must be aware that head trauma may result in a wide array of clinical signs and symptoms. Delivery of care and decisions on return to play need to be based on an individual assessment of the affected athlete.

  15. Risks and Benefits of Late Onset Hypogonadism Treatment: An Expert Opinion

    PubMed Central

    Corona, Giovanni; Vignozzi, Linda; Sforza, Alessandra

    2013-01-01

    Late-onset hypogonadism (LOH) is a syndromic condition that has a well-recognized association with sexual and reproductive failure. LOH is frequently associated with chronic conditions including cardiovascular diseases (CVD), obesity, osteoporosis, HIV infection, renal failure, and obstructive pulmonary diseases. Despite this evidence, in patients with these conditions, LOH is still only rarely investigated and testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) rarely considered. In this paper, we critically reviewed the available evidence on LOH treatment focusing on possible risks and benefits. Medical therapy of LOH should be individualized depending on the etiology of the disease and the patient's expectations. The fear of prostate cancer and the risk of erythrocytosis probably represent the main limitations of TRT in aging men. However, TRT in healthy older men in near physiological doses does not appear to incur serious adverse events, although regular monitoring of prostate-specific antigen and hematocrit levels is required. Available evidence also suggests that TRT might ameliorate central obesity and glycometabolic control in patients with metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes. In addition, TRT has been associated with an increase in bone mineral density in men with osteoporosis, with an improvement in lean body mass in subjects with human immunodeficiency virus infection or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, as well as with peripheral oxygenation in patients with chronic kidney diseases. Despite this evidence, however, it should be recognized that the results of these trials were heterogeneous and limited by small sample sizes. Hence, further research is required regarding the long-term benefits and adverse effects of TRT in LOH. PMID:24044106

  16. Student Views Concerning Evidence and the Expert in Reasoning a Socio-Scientific Issue and Personal Epistemology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Fang-Ying

    2005-01-01

    This study investigated their views concerning evidence and expert opinion of 10th-grade students, accessed by an open-ended questionnaire in the context of a socio-scientific issue: the cause of flood disasters, and personal epistemology identified by the "Learning Environment Preference Questionnaire" (LEP). Students' responses to the open-ended…

  17. Interplay between social debate and propaganda in an opinion formation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gimenez, M. C.; Revelli, J. A.; Lama, M. S. de la; Lopez, J. M.; Wio, H. S.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a simple model of opinion dynamics in which a two-state agent modified Sznajd model evolves due to the simultaneous action of stochastic driving and a periodic signal. The stochastic effect mimics a social temperature, so the agents may adopt decisions in support for or against some opinion or position, according to a modified Sznajd rule with a varying probability. The external force represents a simplified picture by which society feels the influence of the external effects of propaganda. By means of Monte Carlo simulations we have shown the dynamical interplay between the social condition or mood and the external influence, finding a stochastic resonance-like phenomenon when we depict the noise-to-signal ratio as a function of the social temperature. In addition, we have also studied the effects of the system size and the external signal strength on the opinion formation dynamics.

  18. Register of hydrogen technology experts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ludtke, P. R.

    1975-01-01

    This register presents the names of approximately 235 individuals who are considered experts, or very knowledgeable, in various fields of technology related to hydrogen. Approximately 90 organizations are represented. Each person is listed by organizational affiliation, address, and principal area of expertise. The criteria for selection of names for the register are extensive experience in a given field of work, participation in or supervision of relevant research programs, contributions to the literature, or being recognized as an expert in a particular field. The purpose of the register is to present, in easy form, sources of dependable information regarding highly technical areas of hydrogen technology, with particular emphasis on safety. The register includes two indexes: an alphabetical listing of the experts and an alphabetical listing of the organizations with which they are affiliated.

  19. Expert witness and Jungian archetypes.

    PubMed

    Lallave, Juan Antonio; Gutheil, Thomas Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Jung's theories of archetype, shadow, and the personal and collective unconscious provide a postmodern framework in which to consider the role of the expert witness in judicial proceedings. Archetypal themes, motifs, and influences help to illuminate the shadow of the judicial system and projections and behaviors among the cast of the court in pursuing justice. This article speaks to archetypal influences and dialectical tensions encountered by the expert witness in this judicial drama. The archetype of Justice is born from the human need for order and relational fairness in a world of chaos. The persona of justice is the promise of truth in the drama. The shadow of justice is untruth, the need to win by any means. The dynamics of the trickster archetype serve and promote injustice. These influences are examined by means of a case example. This approach will deepen understanding of court proceedings and the role of the expert witness in the heroic quest for justice.

  20. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  1. A framework for building real-time expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, S. Daniel

    1991-01-01

    The Space Station Freedom is an example of complex systems that require both traditional and artificial intelligence (AI) real-time methodologies. It was mandated that Ada should be used for all new software development projects. The station also requires distributed processing. Catastrophic failures on the station can cause the transmission system to malfunction for a long period of time, during which ground-based expert systems cannot provide any assistance to the crisis situation on the station. This is even more critical for other NASA projects that would have longer transmission delays (e.g., the lunar base, Mars missions, etc.). To address these issues, a distributed agent architecture (DAA) is proposed that can support a variety of paradigms based on both traditional real-time computing and AI. The proposed testbed for DAA is an autonomous power expert (APEX) which is a real-time monitoring and diagnosis expert system for the electrical power distribution system of the space station.

  2. Lay Evaluation of Financial Experts: The Action Advice Effect and Confirmation Bias.

    PubMed

    Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz; Gasiorowska, Agata; Stasiuk, Katarzyna; Maksymiuk, Renata; Bar-Tal, Yoram

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this experimental project was to investigate lay peoples' perceptions of epistemic authority (EA) in the field of finance. EA is defined as the extent to which a source of information is treated as evidence for judgments independently of its objective expertise and based on subjective beliefs. Previous research suggested that EA evaluations are biased and that lay people tend to ascribe higher EA to experts who advise action (in the case of medical experts) or confirm clients' expectations (in the case of politicians). However, there has been no research into biases in lay evaluations of financial experts and this project is aimed to fill this gap. Experiment 1 showed that lay people tended to ascribe greater authority to financial consultants who gave more active advice to clients considering taking out a mortgage. Experiment 2 confirmed the action advice effect found in Experiment 1. However, the outcomes of Experiments 2 and - particularly - 3 suggested that this bias might also be due to clients' desire to confirm their own opinions. Experiment 2 showed that the action advice effect was moderated by clients' own opinions on taking loans. Lay people ascribed the greatest EA to the advisor in the scenario in which he advised taking action and where this coincided with the client's positive opinion on the advisability of taking out a loan. In Experiment 3 only participants with a positive opinion on the financial product ascribed greater authority to experts who recommended it; participants whose opinion was negative tended to rate consultants who advised rejecting the product more highly. To conclude, these three experiments revealed that lay people ascribe higher EA to financial consultants who advise action rather than maintenance of the status quo, but this effect is limited by confirmation bias: when the client's a priori opinion is salient, greater authority is ascribed to experts whose advice confirms it. In this sense, results presented in the

  3. Lay Evaluation of Financial Experts: The Action Advice Effect and Confirmation Bias

    PubMed Central

    Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz; Gasiorowska, Agata; Stasiuk, Katarzyna; Maksymiuk, Renata; Bar-Tal, Yoram

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this experimental project was to investigate lay peoples’ perceptions of epistemic authority (EA) in the field of finance. EA is defined as the extent to which a source of information is treated as evidence for judgments independently of its objective expertise and based on subjective beliefs. Previous research suggested that EA evaluations are biased and that lay people tend to ascribe higher EA to experts who advise action (in the case of medical experts) or confirm clients’ expectations (in the case of politicians). However, there has been no research into biases in lay evaluations of financial experts and this project is aimed to fill this gap. Experiment 1 showed that lay people tended to ascribe greater authority to financial consultants who gave more active advice to clients considering taking out a mortgage. Experiment 2 confirmed the action advice effect found in Experiment 1. However, the outcomes of Experiments 2 and – particularly – 3 suggested that this bias might also be due to clients’ desire to confirm their own opinions. Experiment 2 showed that the action advice effect was moderated by clients’ own opinions on taking loans. Lay people ascribed the greatest EA to the advisor in the scenario in which he advised taking action and where this coincided with the client’s positive opinion on the advisability of taking out a loan. In Experiment 3 only participants with a positive opinion on the financial product ascribed greater authority to experts who recommended it; participants whose opinion was negative tended to rate consultants who advised rejecting the product more highly. To conclude, these three experiments revealed that lay people ascribe higher EA to financial consultants who advise action rather than maintenance of the status quo, but this effect is limited by confirmation bias: when the client’s a priori opinion is salient, greater authority is ascribed to experts whose advice confirms it. In this sense, results

  4. Nickel cadmium battery expert system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1986-11-01

    The applicability of artificial intelligence methodologies for the automation of energy storage management, in this case, nickel cadmium batteries, is demonstrated. With the Hubble Space Telescope Electrical Power System (HST/EPS) testbed as the application domain, an expert system was developed which incorporates the physical characterization of the EPS, in particular, the nickel cadmium batteries, as well as the human's operational knowledge. The expert system returns not only fault diagnostics but also status and advice along with justifications and explanations in the form of decision support.

  5. Robotic planner expert system (RPLANES)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grice, Ervin Oneal

    1987-01-01

    The Artificial Intelligence Section of the Mission Planning and Analysis of the Johnson Space Center has developed a prototype of an expert system for robotic planning. A robot is given a high level goal to perform an action (i.e., swap, adjust, or stow) on a component unit of an object such as a satellite and the Robotic Planner Expert System (RPLANES) generates the necessary goals for arm actions. RPLANES is designed using the Inference Corp. Automated Reasoning Tool (ART) development tool. It resides on a SYMBOLICS 3670. RPLANES and its evolution are described.

  6. Nickel cadmium battery expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    The applicability of artificial intelligence methodologies for the automation of energy storage management, in this case, nickel cadmium batteries, is demonstrated. With the Hubble Space Telescope Electrical Power System (HST/EPS) testbed as the application domain, an expert system was developed which incorporates the physical characterization of the EPS, in particular, the nickel cadmium batteries, as well as the human's operational knowledge. The expert system returns not only fault diagnostics but also status and advice along with justifications and explanations in the form of decision support.

  7. User interfaces to expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Agarwal, A.; Emrich, M.L.

    1988-10-01

    Expert Systems are becoming increasingly popular in environments where the user is not well versed in computers or the subject domain. They offer expert advice and can also explain their lines of reasoning. As these systems are applied to highly technical areas, they become complex and large. Therefore, User Systems Interfaces (USIs) become critical. This paper discusses recent technologies that can be applied to improved user communication. In particular, bar menus/graphics, mouse interfaces, touch screens, and voice links will be highlighted. Their applications in the context of SOFTMAN (The Software Manager Apprentice) a knowledge-based system are discussed. 18 refs., 2 figs.

  8. [Judicial institutions of medical experts].

    PubMed

    Godoy, Roberto Lm

    2016-05-01

    This article considers the evolutive process that judicial organisms of medical experts have experienced in Argentina since their creation and formulates a proposal for its adequacy and modernization. Due to multiple and various evolutive factors, judicial organisms managing medicolegal expert activities show, nowadays, signals that a structural and dynamic reform is needed. They remain as organizational units of Public Administration and their effectiveness and efficiency depends not only of a scientific criteria but a managing one. The present and future challenge will be their conceptual transformation, from "corporate scientific entities" to "public-service-providing units" within the justice administration system.

  9. Are forensic experts biased by the side that retained them?

    PubMed

    Murrie, Daniel C; Boccaccini, Marcus T; Guarnera, Lucy A; Rufino, Katrina A

    2013-10-01

    How objective are forensic experts when they are retained by one of the opposing sides in an adversarial legal proceeding? Despite long-standing concerns from within the legal system, little is known about whether experts can provide opinions unbiased by the side that retained them. In this experiment, we paid 108 forensic psychologists and psychiatrists to review the same offender case files, but deceived some to believe that they were consulting for the defense and some to believe that they were consulting for the prosecution. Participants scored each offender on two commonly used, well-researched risk-assessment instruments. Those who believed they were working for the prosecution tended to assign higher risk scores to offenders, whereas those who believed they were working for the defense tended to assign lower risk scores to the same offenders; the effect sizes (d) ranged up to 0.85. The results provide strong evidence of an allegiance effect among some forensic experts in adversarial legal proceedings.

  10. Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; van der Lans, Ivo A.; Frewer, Lynn J.

    2012-05-01

    Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

  11. Obstetricians’ Opinions of the Optimal Caesarean Rate: A Global Survey

    PubMed Central

    Cavallaro, Francesca L.; Cresswell, Jenny A.; Ronsmans, Carine

    2016-01-01

    Background The debate surrounding the optimal caesarean rate has been ongoing for several decades, with the WHO recommending an “acceptable” rate of 5–15% since 1997, despite a weak evidence base. Global expert opinion from obstetric care providers on the optimal caesarean rate has not been documented. The objective of this study was to examine providers’ opinions of the optimal caesarean rate worldwide, among all deliveries and within specific sub-groups of deliveries. Methods A global online survey of medical doctors who had performed at least one caesarean in the last five years was conducted between August 2013 and January 2014. Respondents were asked to report their opinion of the optimal caesarean rate—defined as the caesarean rate that would minimise poor maternal and perinatal outcomes—at the population level and within specific sub-groups of deliveries (including women with demographic and clinical risk factors for caesareans). Median reported optimal rates and corresponding inter-quartile ranges (IQRs) were calculated for the sample, and stratified according to national caesarean rate, institutional caesarean rate, facility level, and respondent characteristics. Results Responses were collected from 1,057 medical doctors from 96 countries. The median reported optimal caesarean rate was 20% (IQR: 15–30%) for all deliveries. Providers in private for-profit facilities and in facilities with high institutional rates reported optimal rates of 30% or above, while those in Europe, in public facilities and in facilities with low institutional rates reported rates of 15% or less. Reported optimal rates were lowest among low-risk deliveries and highest for Absolute Maternal Indications (AMIs), with wide IQRs observed for most categories other than AMIs. Conclusions Three-quarters of respondents reported an optimal caesarean rate above the WHO 15% upper threshold. There was substantial variation in responses, highlighting a lack of consensus around

  12. 24 CFR 1710.17 - Advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... Advisory opinion. (a) General. A developer may request an opinion from the Secretary as to whether an... developer should at least cite the applicable statutory or regulatory basis for the exemption or lack of... outside the purview of the Act. (3) An affirmation as shown below: Developer's Affirmation Name...

  13. Internet Censorship in Turkey: University Students' Opinions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ozkan, Hasan; Arikan, Arda

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to study university students' opinions toward online censorship with references to their socio-political and economic variables. Considering the upwards trend and the increasing number of online restrictions in Turkey, the opinions of university students (n=138) are thought to give significant findings. The questionnaire…

  14. Environment and Public Opinion in Minnesota.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tichenor, P. J.; And Others

    Surveys conducted in Minnesota in 1969 and 1970 to obtain public opinion regarding environmental issues are discussed. Several generalizations are made about the state of public opinion about the environmental issue, as follows: (1) The environmental issue has reached public prominence through a sequence from professional and interest-group…

  15. Florida Employer Opinion Survey. Annual Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Florida State Dept. of Education, Tallahassee. Div. of Vocational, Adult, and Community Education.

    Two surveys were directed to Florida employers that employed former vocational education students in 1988. The surveys obtained information describing employer opinions regarding general and specific vocational preparation of workers for employment. The 1989-90 employer general opinion survey examined hiring needs, general preparation, and…

  16. Developing Student Opinions on Agricultural Issues.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walter, Gerry; Reisner, Ann

    1992-01-01

    Presents early evidence from a longitudinal study suggesting that many agricultural college students lack opinions on soil and water conservation issues. Data also suggest encounters with conservation issues in the classroom and elsewhere encourage students, to learn about and form opinions on conservation. (27 references) (Author/MCO)

  17. Public Opinion Poll on Community Priorities: Sacramento

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sierra Health Foundation, 2009

    2009-01-01

    The primary goal of this study was to measure public perceptions, opinions and priorities as they pertain to youth issues in Sacramento for the purposes of further developing public and private youth programming and public policy in the Sacramento region. By presenting a "statistically reliable" profile of public opinion on youth issues,…

  18. Public Opinion Poll Question Databases: An Evaluation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woods, Stephen

    2007-01-01

    This paper evaluates five polling resource: iPOLL, Polling the Nations, Gallup Brain, Public Opinion Poll Question Database, and Polls and Surveys. Content was evaluated on disclosure standards from major polling organizations, scope on a model for public opinion polls, and presentation on a flow chart discussing search limitations and usability.

  19. Risk perceptions starting to shift? U.S. citizens are forming opinions about nanotechnology

    PubMed Central

    Greenhalgh, Ted; Kramer, Victoria

    2009-01-01

    This article presents early results from an opinion formation study based on a 76-member panel of U.S. citizens, with comparison data from a group of 177 nanotechnology experts. While initially similar to the expert group in terms of their perceptions of the risks, benefits, and need for regulation characterizing several forms of nanotechnology, the first follow-up survey indicates that the panel is beginning to diverge from the experts, particularly with respect to perceptions of the levels of various “societal” risks that nanotechnology might present. The data suggest that responding to public concerns may involve more than attention to physical risks in areas such as health and environment; concerns about other forms of risk actually appear more salient. PMID:21170130

  20. Psychology of developing and designing expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Tonn, B.; MacGregor, D.

    1986-01-01

    This paper discusses psychological problems relevant to developing and designing expert systems. With respect to the former, the psychological literature suggests that several cognitive biases may affect the elicitation of a valid knowledge base from the expert. The literature also suggests that common expert system inference engines may be quite inconsistent with reasoning heuristics employed by experts. With respect to expert system user interfaces, care should be taken when eliciting uncertainty estimates from users, presenting system conclusions, and ordering questions.

  1. Towards a science of expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Denning, P. J.

    1986-01-01

    Developments in the field of AI are discussed. The components and applications of expert systems, which are computer systems designed to simulate the problem-solving behavior of a person expert in a narrow field, are examined. Two types of expert systems, shallow and deep, are described and examples are given. A logic programming system, rule-based system, and framed-based system are utilized as means of representing the expert system's data base. The limitations of expert systems are considered.

  2. The Natural Gas Dilemma in New England's Electricity Sector: Experts' Perspectives on Long Term Climate Issues and Policy Opportunities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffith, Steven

    This thesis is an interpretive analysis of experts' perspectives on the climate implications of New England's reliance on natural gas for electricity generation. Specifically, this research, conducted through interviews and literature review, examines experts' opinions on the desired role of natural gas within the regional electricity sector, alternative energy resources, and state and regional policy opportunities toward the achievement of New England's ambitious long-term greenhouse gas reduction goals. Experts expressed concern about the climate dilemma posed by a dependence on natural gas. However, interviews revealed that short-term reliability and cost considerations are paramount for many experts, and therefore a reliance on natural gas is the existing reality. To incentivize renewable generation technologies for the purposes of long-term climate stabilization, experts advocated for the expanded implementation of renewable portfolio standard, net metering, and feed-in tariff policies. More broadly, interviewees expressed the need for an array of complementary state and regional policies.

  3. Expert systems for superalloy studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Workman, Gary L.; Kaukler, William F.

    1990-01-01

    There are many areas in science and engineering which require knowledge of an extremely complex foundation of experimental results in order to design methodologies for developing new materials or products. Superalloys are an area which fit well into this discussion in the sense that they are complex combinations of elements which exhibit certain characteristics. Obviously the use of superalloys in high performance, high temperature systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine is of interest to NASA. The superalloy manufacturing process is complex and the implementation of an expert system within the design process requires some thought as to how and where it should be implemented. A major motivation is to develop a methodology to assist metallurgists in the design of superalloy materials using current expert systems technology. Hydrogen embrittlement is disasterous to rocket engines and the heuristics can be very complex. Attacking this problem as one module in the overall design process represents a significant step forward. In order to describe the objectives of the first phase implementation, the expert system was designated Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement Expert System (HEEES).

  4. Expert systems in government symposium

    SciTech Connect

    Karna, K.N.

    1985-01-01

    This book presents the papers given at a symposium on various applications of expert systems. Topics considered at the symposium included knowledge-based reasoning, new directions in knowledge acquisition, software, programming languages, systems engineering, intelligent information retrieval, reactor safety assessment, medical applications, uncertainty management, algorithms, parallel processing, and artificial intelligence.

  5. Teen Experts Guide Makerspace Makeover

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Graves, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    A makerspace is a place where makers can envision a project, find an expert, and create something. Libraries have always held programming during which patrons were able to come in and create. The makerspace at the Lamar Middle School in Flower Mound, Texas, is available for students every day, so that they can daily create and play with innovative…

  6. Expert Systems for Reference Work.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parrot, James R.

    1986-01-01

    Discussion of library reference work that may be suitable for use of expert systems focuses on (1) information and literature searches, and (2) requests to interpret bibliographic references and locate items listed. Systems and computer-assisted instruction modules designed for information retrieval at the University of Waterloo Library are…

  7. Expert System Development Methodology (ESDM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sary, Charisse; Gilstrap, Lewey; Hull, Larry G.

    1990-01-01

    The Expert System Development Methodology (ESDM) provides an approach to developing expert system software. Because of the uncertainty associated with this process, an element of risk is involved. ESDM is designed to address the issue of risk and to acquire the information needed for this purpose in an evolutionary manner. ESDM presents a life cycle in which a prototype evolves through five stages of development. Each stage consists of five steps, leading to a prototype for that stage. Development may proceed to a conventional development methodology (CDM) at any time if enough has been learned about the problem to write requirements. ESDM produces requirements so that a product may be built with a CDM. ESDM is considered preliminary because is has not yet been applied to actual projects. It has been retrospectively evaluated by comparing the methods used in two ongoing expert system development projects that did not explicitly choose to use this methodology but which provided useful insights into actual expert system development practices and problems.

  8. Computers that Think Like Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kinnucan, Paul

    1984-01-01

    Discusses the nature of expert systems, including various techniques they use to represent knowledge (such as production rules, semantic networks, frames, first-order logic, and others), system interactions, and such problem domains as science, medicine, computer configuration, trouble-shooting/repair, and oil/mineral exploration. Also discusses…

  9. Coupling expert systems and simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kawamura, K.; Beale, G.; Padalkar, S.; Rodriguez-Moscoso, J.; Hsieh, B. J.; Vinz, F.; Fernandez, K. R.

    1988-01-01

    A prototype coupled system called NESS (NASA Expert Simulation System) is described. NESS assists the user in running digital simulations of dynamic systems, interprets the output data to performance specifications, and recommends a suitable series compensator to be added to the simulation model.

  10. Opinion formation models on a gradient.

    PubMed

    Gastner, Michael T; Markou, Nikolitsa; Pruessner, Gunnar; Draief, Moez

    2014-01-01

    Statistical physicists have become interested in models of collective social behavior such as opinion formation, where individuals change their inherently preferred opinion if their friends disagree. Real preferences often depend on regional cultural differences, which we model here as a spatial gradient g in the initial opinion. The gradient does not only add reality to the model. It can also reveal that opinion clusters in two dimensions are typically in the standard (i.e., independent) percolation universality class, thus settling a recent controversy about a non-consensus model. However, using analytical and numerical tools, we also present a model where the width of the transition between opinions scales proportional g(-1/4), not proportional g(-4/7) as in independent percolation, and the cluster size distribution is consistent with first-order percolation.

  11. How Expert Pilots Think Cognitive Processes in Expert Decision Making

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1993-02-01

    over many years and thousands of hours of learning and exposure. As with other fields of expertise, the pilots decision making abilities continue to...elaborately structured set of associated concepts, procedures and events ., based upon many years of study, training and experience in a aviation. The use of...with training and experience to show that many characteristics of Expert Decision Making (EDM) were enhanced as pilots accumulate flight time. The

  12. Surgical hemostatic agents: assessment of drugs and medical devices.

    PubMed

    Aubourg, R; Putzolu, J; Bouche, S; Galmiche, H; Denis, C; d'Andon, A; Maitrot, D; Partensky, C

    2011-12-01

    Surgical hemostatic agents are indicated to improve hemostasis when conventional techniques (compression, sutures or electrocoagulation) are inadequate. The National French Authority for Health (Haute Autorité de santé [HAS]) set out to assess these products (medical devices and agents) to determine their optimal utility. This evaluation included one class of products containing some form of human fibrinogen and thrombin and eight classes of medical devices and automated devices to prepare autologous fibrin. The assessment was based on a systematic review of the literature and expert opinion of health care professionals. The main measures of effectiveness of hemostatic agents were the success rate as expressed in terms of the time necessary to obtain adequate hemostasis, the volume of intra and/or postoperative blood loss, the need for blood transfusions, complication rate, duration of operations and hospital stay. A meta-analysis and 52 controlled randomized studies were selected involving cardiac or vascular surgery (19), ENT surgery (11), gastrointestinal surgery (5), urology (4), orthopedic surgery (4). Approximately half of the studies retained in this analysis evaluated blood derived agents (fibrin sealants) while the other half evaluated medical devices. The working group considered that there is not any evidence that these surgical hemostatic agents decrease the rates of transfusion, complications, reoperation, mortality, duration of operation and/or hospital stay. The working group considered that the use of surgical hemostatic agents to improve the safety of hemostasis in the absence of identified bleeding as an alternative to adequate conventional hemostasis was not justified. Surgical hemostatic agents can be used in ad hoc settings, as a complement to conventional methods to control persistent bleeding after conventional hemostatic techniques, or when abundant bleeding has led to biologic hemostatic disorders. The working group also distinguished

  13. Food irradiation: Public opinion surveys

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, S.D.

    1987-01-01

    The Canadian government are discussing the legislation, regulations and practical protocol necessary for the commercialization of food irradiation. Food industry marketing, public relations and media expertise will be needed to successfully introduce this new processing choice to retailers and consumers. Consumer research to date including consumer opinion studies and market trials conducted in the Netherlands, United States, South Africa and Canada will be explored for signposts to successful approaches to the introduction of irradiated foods to retailers and consumers. Research has indicated that the terms used to describe irradiation and information designed to reduce consumer fears will be important marketing tools. Marketers will be challenged to promote old foods, which look the same to consumers, in a new light. Simple like or dislike or intention to buy surveys will not be effective tools. Consumer fears must be identified and effectively handled to support a receptive climate for irradiated food products. A cooperative government, industry, health professional, consumer association and retailer effort will be necessary for the successful introduction of irradiated foods into the marketplace. Grocery Products Manufacturers of Canada is a national trade association of more than 150 major companies engaged in the manufacture of food, non-alcoholic beverages and array of other national-brand consumer items sold through retail outlets.

  14. Expert systems in agriculture and resource management

    SciTech Connect

    Plant, R.E.

    1993-05-01

    This paper gives a description of some representative examples of expert systems applied to problems in agriculture and biological resource management. The discussion of agricultural expert systems focuses on several decision support systems for crop management, describing the systems themselves and the implementation efforts surrounding them. The examples of the application of expert systems to biological resource management focus on the integration of expert systems with geographic information systems. A description of some of the more recent developments in agricultural expert systems, still in the prototype stage, is then given, followed by a summary discussion of possible environmental implications of the use of expert systems in agriculture and resource management. 63 refs.

  15. Minority persistence in agent based model using information and emotional arousal as control variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    2013-07-01

    We present detailed analysis of the behavior of an agent based model of opinion formation, using a discrete variant of cusp catastrophe behavior of single agents. The agent opinion about a particular issue is determined by its information about the issue and its emotional arousal. It is possible that for agitated agents the same information would lead to different opinions. This results in a nontrivial individual opinion dynamics. The agents communicate via messages, which allows direct application of the model to ICT based communities. We study the dependence of the composition of an agent society on the range of interactions and the rate of emotional arousal. Despite the minimal number of adjustable parameters, the model reproduces several phenomena observed in real societies, for example nearly perfectly balanced results of some highly contested elections or the fact that minorities seldom perceive themselves to be a minority.

  16. Expert credibility in climate change.

    PubMed

    Anderegg, William R L; Prall, James W; Harold, Jacob; Schneider, Stephen H

    2010-07-06

    Although preliminary estimates from published literature and expert surveys suggest striking agreement among climate scientists on the tenets of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), the American public expresses substantial doubt about both the anthropogenic cause and the level of scientific agreement underpinning ACC. A broad analysis of the climate scientist community itself, the distribution of credibility of dissenting researchers relative to agreeing researchers, and the level of agreement among top climate experts has not been conducted and would inform future ACC discussions. Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97-98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.

  17. Heat exchanger expert system logic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cormier, R.

    1988-01-01

    The reduction is described of the operation and fault diagnostics of a Deep Space Network heat exchanger to a rule base by the application of propositional calculus to a set of logic statements. The value of this approach lies in the ease of converting the logic and subsequently implementing it on a computer as an expert system. The rule base was written in Process Intelligent Control software.

  18. [Expert evidence in whiplash injury: interdisciplinary orthopaedic and biomechanical approach].

    PubMed

    Magin, M N; Auer, C

    2014-03-01

    Considering the controversially discussed issue of whiplash injury a pragmatic approach based on our own experience in the area of forensic expert opinion is presented. Findings of accident analysis and biomechanics are correlated with the individual situation after the accident (initial clinical appearance), the course of the ailment and the indispensable physical examination. The latter leads to determination of the individual vulnerability (not increased/increased) which is important for the evaluation of the physical condition and estimation of the physical stress limit. These limits vary widely between individuals and must be considered carefully when relating dose and effect of accident severity to a possible physical injury. Determination of the accident severity is especially important when there are no objective signs of injury and the existence of a minor whiplash injury (Quebec Task Force degree 1 or 2) is in question.

  19. Are Opinions Based on Science: Modelling Social Response to Scientific Facts

    PubMed Central

    Iñiguez, Gerardo; Tagüeña-Martínez, Julia; Kaski, Kimmo K.; Barrio, Rafael A.

    2012-01-01

    As scientists we like to think that modern societies and their members base their views, opinions and behaviour on scientific facts. This is not necessarily the case, even though we are all (over-) exposed to information flow through various channels of media, i.e. newspapers, television, radio, internet, and web. It is thought that this is mainly due to the conflicting information on the mass media and to the individual attitude (formed by cultural, educational and environmental factors), that is, one external factor and another personal factor. In this paper we will investigate the dynamical development of opinion in a small population of agents by means of a computational model of opinion formation in a co-evolving network of socially linked agents. The personal and external factors are taken into account by assigning an individual attitude parameter to each agent, and by subjecting all to an external but homogeneous field to simulate the effect of the media. We then adjust the field strength in the model by using actual data on scientific perception surveys carried out in two different populations, which allow us to compare two different societies. We interpret the model findings with the aid of simple mean field calculations. Our results suggest that scientifically sound concepts are more difficult to acquire than concepts not validated by science, since opposing individuals organize themselves in close communities that prevent opinion consensus. PMID:22905117

  20. Are opinions based on science: modelling social response to scientific facts.

    PubMed

    Iñiguez, Gerardo; Tagüeña-Martínez, Julia; Kaski, Kimmo K; Barrio, Rafael A

    2012-01-01

    As scientists we like to think that modern societies and their members base their views, opinions and behaviour on scientific facts. This is not necessarily the case, even though we are all (over-) exposed to information flow through various channels of media, i.e. newspapers, television, radio, internet, and web. It is thought that this is mainly due to the conflicting information on the mass media and to the individual attitude (formed by cultural, educational and environmental factors), that is, one external factor and another personal factor. In this paper we will investigate the dynamical development of opinion in a small population of agents by means of a computational model of opinion formation in a co-evolving network of socially linked agents. The personal and external factors are taken into account by assigning an individual attitude parameter to each agent, and by subjecting all to an external but homogeneous field to simulate the effect of the media. We then adjust the field strength in the model by using actual data on scientific perception surveys carried out in two different populations, which allow us to compare two different societies. We interpret the model findings with the aid of simple mean field calculations. Our results suggest that scientifically sound concepts are more difficult to acquire than concepts not validated by science, since opposing individuals organize themselves in close communities that prevent opinion consensus.

  1. Uncertainty reasoning in expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kreinovich, Vladik

    1993-01-01

    Intelligent control is a very successful way to transform the expert's knowledge of the type 'if the velocity is big and the distance from the object is small, hit the brakes and decelerate as fast as possible' into an actual control. To apply this transformation, one must choose appropriate methods for reasoning with uncertainty, i.e., one must: (1) choose the representation for words like 'small', 'big'; (2) choose operations corresponding to 'and' and 'or'; (3) choose a method that transforms the resulting uncertain control recommendations into a precise control strategy. The wrong choice can drastically affect the quality of the resulting control, so the problem of choosing the right procedure is very important. From a mathematical viewpoint these choice problems correspond to non-linear optimization and are therefore extremely difficult. In this project, a new mathematical formalism (based on group theory) is developed that allows us to solve the problem of optimal choice and thus: (1) explain why the existing choices are really the best (in some situations); (2) explain a rather mysterious fact that fuzzy control (i.e., control based on the experts' knowledge) is often better than the control by these same experts; and (3) give choice recommendations for the cases when traditional choices do not work.

  2. Intelligent interfaces for expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Villarreal, James A.; Wang, Lui

    1988-01-01

    Vital to the success of an expert system is an interface to the user which performs intelligently. A generic intelligent interface is being developed for expert systems. This intelligent interface was developed around the in-house developed Expert System for the Flight Analysis System (ESFAS). The Flight Analysis System (FAS) is comprised of 84 configuration controlled FORTRAN subroutines that are used in the preflight analysis of the space shuttle. In order to use FAS proficiently, a person must be knowledgeable in the areas of flight mechanics, the procedures involved in deploying a certain payload, and an overall understanding of the FAS. ESFAS, still in its developmental stage, is taking into account much of this knowledge. The generic intelligent interface involves the integration of a speech recognizer and synthesizer, a preparser, and a natural language parser to ESFAS. The speech recognizer being used is capable of recognizing 1000 words of connected speech. The natural language parser is a commercial software package which uses caseframe instantiation in processing the streams of words from the speech recognizer or the keyboard. The systems configuration is described along with capabilities and drawbacks.

  3. Expert searching in public health

    PubMed Central

    Alpi, Kristine M.

    2005-01-01

    Objective: The article explores the characteristics of public health information needs and the resources available to address those needs that distinguish it as an area of searching requiring particular expertise. Methods: Public health searching activities from reference questions and literature search requests at a large, urban health department library were reviewed to identify the challenges in finding relevant public health information. Results: The terminology of the information request frequently differed from the vocabularies available in the databases. Searches required the use of multiple databases and/or Web resources with diverse interfaces. Issues of the scope and features of the databases relevant to the search questions were considered. Conclusion: Expert searching in public health differs from other types of expert searching in the subject breadth and technical demands of the databases to be searched, the fluidity and lack of standardization of the vocabulary, and the relative scarcity of high-quality investigations at the appropriate level of geographic specificity. Health sciences librarians require a broad exposure to databases, gray literature, and public health terminology to perform as expert searchers in public health. PMID:15685281

  4. Expert witness qualifications and ethical guidelines for emergency medical services litigation: resource document for the National Association of EMS Physicians position statement.

    PubMed

    Maggiore, W Ann Winnie; Kupas, Douglas F; Glushak, Cai

    2011-01-01

    The clinical provision of medical care by emergency medical services (EMS) providers in the out-of-hospital environment and the operation of EMS systems to provide that care are unique in the medical arena. There is a substantive difference in the experience of individuals who provide medical care in the out-of-hospital setting and the experience of those who provide similar care in the hospital or other clinical settings. Furthermore, physicians who provide medical direction for EMS personnel have a clinical and oversight relationship with EMS personnel. This relationship uniquely qualifies EMS medical directors to provide expert opinions related to care provided by nonphysician EMS personnel. Physicians without specific EMS oversight experience are not uniformly qualified to provide expert opinion regarding the provision of EMS. This resource document reviews the current issues in expert witness testimony in cases involving EMS as these issues relate to the unique qualifications of the expert witness, the standard of care, and the ethical expectations.

  5. Scientific Experts and the Controversy About Teaching Creation/Evolution in the UK Press

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allgaier, Joachim

    2010-06-01

    The issue whether creationist accounts of the origins of life should be taught in science education alongside or even instead Darwin’s theory of evolution is controversial in many countries. In 2002 there was a controversy around teaching creationism in science classes at a secondary school in England. The research presented in this paper uses this controversy around teaching creationism/evolution as case study to find out more about the public representation of science education. Here it focuses on the question who the experts were that appeared in the press coverage and examines the role of scientific experts in this controversy. Expertise is a key resource in many public controversies involving science and can also have an impact on decision-making processes and on the public opinion. Also the way expert sources are presented in media accounts of socio-scientific controversies can have an effect on how their credibility is perceived and the arguments being made.

  6. Stochastic population forecasting based on combinations of expert evaluations within the Bayesian paradigm.

    PubMed

    Billari, Francesco C; Graziani, Rebecca; Melilli, Eugenio

    2014-10-01

    This article suggests a procedure to derive stochastic population forecasts adopting an expert-based approach. As in previous work by Billari et al. (2012), experts are required to provide evaluations, in the form of conditional and unconditional scenarios, on summary indicators of the demographic components determining the population evolution: that is, fertility, mortality, and migration. Here, two main purposes are pursued. First, the demographic components are allowed to have some kind of dependence. Second, as a result of the existence of a body of shared information, possible correlations among experts are taken into account. In both cases, the dependence structure is not imposed by the researcher but rather is indirectly derived through the scenarios elicited from the experts. To address these issues, the method is based on a mixture model, within the so-called Supra-Bayesian approach, according to which expert evaluations are treated as data. The derived posterior distribution for the demographic indicators of interest is used as forecasting distribution, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is designed to approximate this posterior. This article provides the questionnaire designed by the authors to collect expert opinions. Finally, an application to the forecast of the Italian population from 2010 to 2065 is proposed.

  7. [The CSI effect and its impact on the perceptions of forensic science experts' work].

    PubMed

    Stojer, Joanna

    2011-01-01

    The issue that has been analyzed in this work is the potential effect of crime films and TV series on people's perceptions of forensic medicine and science, and especially on the forming of expectations towards forensic science experts. This syndrome is being called the "CSI effect" after the popular franchise Crime Scene Investigation (CSI). Questionnaire surveys that have been conducted included "experts": 50 experts in various specialities, 77 prosecutors, 119 judges, 64 lay judges, 161 police staff and 80 members of general public. In-depth interviews have been conducted with 20 police staff, and also a focus group has been carried out with 15 law students. In the opinion of the respondents, people's perceptions and expectations of forensic science--as it can be observed during criminal trials--are largely inflated by the entertainment media. Among the surveyed persons, the category that declares watching crime series most rarely, is forensic science experts. Around half of the surveyed experts pointed out to excessive expectations towards they work instigated by TV crime series. The most common expectations towards forensic medicine experts are: immediate conclusiveness of post mortem examinations (going as far as indicating the cause of death at the crime scene), precision of death time estimation and a routine use of sophisticated methods known from TV.

  8. Cataloging Expert Systems: Optimism and Frustrated Reality.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Olmstadt, William J.

    2000-01-01

    Discusses artificial intelligence and attempts to catalog expert systems. Topics include the nature of expertise; examples of cataloging expert systems; barriers to implementation; and problems, including total automation, cataloging expertise, priorities, and system design. (LRW)

  9. Galaxy Classification: Citizen Scientists versus Experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kautsch, Stefan J.; Vazquez, Richard; Phung, Chau; VanHilst, Michael; Castro, Victor H.; Bizyaev, Dmitry

    2016-01-01

    We present the differences of morphological galaxy classification between non-experts and experts. The non-experts are represented by college students and a retired adult community, who use an online application to visually classify galaxies selected from a galaxy morphology catalog. We find that the non-expert group lags the expert classification by one Hubble type behind, for instance, the non-experts classify a set of galaxies with Sb, while the experts classify the same set as Sc. We believe the reason is because the Hubble sequence is increasing the asymmetric structures towards later types. Our results show that the experts have the ability to identify more detailed structures, which the laymen commonly do not recognize.

  10. The Bakke Opinions and Equal Protection Doctrine.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karst, Kenneth L.; Horowitz, Harold W.

    1979-01-01

    Constitutional issues addressed in the Supreme Court's decision are reviewed. The opinions rendered by Justice Powell are viewed as reflections of the weakness of recent equal protection theory, and as signs of future doctrine. (GC)

  11. Beyond metformin: safety considerations in the decision-making process for selecting a second medication for type 2 diabetes management: reflections from a diabetes care editors' expert forum.

    PubMed

    Cefalu, William T; Buse, John B; Del Prato, Stefano; Home, Philip D; LeRoith, Derek; Nauck, Michael A; Raz, Itamar; Rosenstock, Julio; Riddle, Matthew C

    2014-09-01

    The trend toward personalized management of diabetes has focused attention on the differences among available pharmacological agents in terms of mechanisms of action, efficacy, and, most important, safety. Clinicians must select from these features to develop individualized therapy regimens. In June 2013, a nine-member Diabetes Care Editors' Expert Forum convened to review safety evidence for six major diabetes drug classes: insulin, sulfonylureas (SUs), thiazolidinediones (TZDs), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, and sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors. This article, an outgrowth of the forum, summarizes well-delineated and theoretical safety concerns related to these drug classes, as well as the panelists' opinions regarding their best use in patients with type 2 diabetes. All of the options appear to have reasonably wide safety margins when used appropriately. Those about which we know the most-metformin, SUs, insulin, and perhaps now also TZDs-are efficacious in most patients and can be placed into a basic initial algorithm. However, these agents leave some clinical needs unmet. Selecting next steps is a more formidable process involving newer agents that are understood less well and for which there are unresolved questions regarding risk versus benefit in certain populations. Choosing a specific agent is not as important as implementing some form of early intervention and advancing rapidly to some form of combination therapy as needed. When all options are relatively safe given the benefits they confer, therapeutic decision making must rely on a personalized approach, taking into account patients' clinical circumstances, phenotype, pathophysiological defects, preferences, abilities, and costs.

  12. Functioning and disability in autism spectrum disorder: A worldwide survey of experts

    PubMed Central

    de Schipper, Elles; Mahdi, Soheil; de Vries, Petrus; Granlund, Mats; Holtmann, Martin; Karande, Sunil; Almodayfer, Omar; Shulman, Cory; Tonge, Bruce; Wong, Virginia V.C.N.; Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie

    2016-01-01

    Objective: This study is the second of four to prepare International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF; and Children and Youth version, ICF(‐CY)) Core Sets for Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD).The objective of this study was to survey the opinions and experiences of international experts on functioning and disability in ASD. Methods: Using a protocol stipulated by the World Health Organization (WHO) and monitored by the ICF Research Branch, an email‐based questionnaire was circulated worldwide among ASD experts, and meaningful functional ability and disability concepts were extracted from their responses. These concepts were then linked to the ICF(‐CY) by two independent researchers using a standardized linking procedure. Results: N = 225 experts from 10 different disciplines and all six WHO‐regions completed the survey. Meaningful concepts from the responses were linked to 210 ICF(‐CY) categories. Of these, 103 categories were considered most relevant to ASD (i.e., identified by at least 5% of the experts), of which 37 were related to Activities and Participation, 35 to Body functions, 22 to Environmental factors, and 9 to Body structures. A variety of personal characteristics and ASD‐related functioning skills were provided by experts, including honesty, loyalty, attention to detail and creative talents. Reported gender differences in ASD comprised more externalizing behaviors among males and more internalizing behaviors in females. Conclusion: The ICF(‐CY) categories derived from international expert opinions indicate that the impact of ASD on functioning extends far beyond core symptom domains. Autism Res 2016, 9: 959–969. © 2016 The Authors Autism Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society for Autism Research PMID:26749373

  13. Agent Orange

    MedlinePlus

    ... Index Agent Orange Agent Orange Home Facts about Herbicides Veterans' Diseases Birth Defects Benefits Exposure Locations Provider ... Orange Parkinson’s Awareness Month Were you exposed to herbicides during service and have Parkinson’s disease? You may ...

  14. Expert systems applied to spacecraft fire safety

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Richard L.; Kashiwagi, Takashi

    1989-01-01

    Expert systems are problem-solving programs that combine a knowledge base and a reasoning mechanism to simulate a human expert. The development of an expert system to manage fire safety in spacecraft, in particular the NASA Space Station Freedom, is difficult but clearly advantageous in the long-term. Some needs in low-gravity flammability characteristics, ventilating-flow effects, fire detection, fire extinguishment, and decision models, all necessary to establish the knowledge base for an expert system, are discussed.

  15. Differentiating Experts' Anticipatory Skills in Beach Volleyball

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Canal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J. P.

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos…

  16. The chiropractor as an expert witness

    PubMed Central

    Chapman-Smith, D. A.

    1984-01-01

    This paper examines the professional status of the chiropractor as an expert witness in Canada. It commences with an outline of the relevant law then considers the circumstances which affect whether or not a chiropractor’s testimony in a particular instance will be admitted as expert and given weight against conflicting expert evidence. There is brief discussion of related insurance issues.

  17. Emergence of metapopulations and echo chambers in mobile agents

    PubMed Central

    Starnini, Michele; Frasca, Mattia; Baronchelli, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    Multi-agent models often describe populations segregated either in the physical space, i.e. subdivided in metapopulations, or in the ecology of opinions, i.e. partitioned in echo chambers. Here we show how both kinds of segregation can emerge from the interplay between homophily and social influence in a simple model of mobile agents endowed with a continuous opinion variable. In the model, physical proximity determines a progressive convergence of opinions but differing opinions result in agents moving away from each others. This feedback between mobility and social dynamics determines the onset of a stable dynamical metapopulation scenario where physically separated groups of like-minded individuals interact with each other through the exchange of agents. The further introduction of confirmation bias in social interactions, defined as the tendency of an individual to favor opinions that match his own, leads to the emergence of echo chambers where different opinions coexist also within the same group. We believe that the model may be of interest to researchers investigating the origin of segregation in the offline and online world. PMID:27572928

  18. Emergence of metapopulations and echo chambers in mobile agents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Starnini, Michele; Frasca, Mattia; Baronchelli, Andrea

    2016-08-01

    Multi-agent models often describe populations segregated either in the physical space, i.e. subdivided in metapopulations, or in the ecology of opinions, i.e. partitioned in echo chambers. Here we show how both kinds of segregation can emerge from the interplay between homophily and social influence in a simple model of mobile agents endowed with a continuous opinion variable. In the model, physical proximity determines a progressive convergence of opinions but differing opinions result in agents moving away from each others. This feedback between mobility and social dynamics determines the onset of a stable dynamical metapopulation scenario where physically separated groups of like-minded individuals interact with each other through the exchange of agents. The further introduction of confirmation bias in social interactions, defined as the tendency of an individual to favor opinions that match his own, leads to the emergence of echo chambers where different opinions coexist also within the same group. We believe that the model may be of interest to researchers investigating the origin of segregation in the offline and online world.

  19. Explanation production by expert planners

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bridges, Susan; Jhannes, James D.

    1988-01-01

    Although the explanation capability of expert systems is usually listed as one of the distinguishing characteristics of these systems, the explanation facilities of most existing systems are quite primitive. Computer generated explanations are typically produced from canned text or by direct translation of the knowledge structures. Explanations produced in this manner bear little resemblance to those produced by humans for similar tasks. The focus of our research in explanation is the production of justifications for decisions by expert planning systems. An analysis of justifications written by people for planning tasks has been taken as the starting point. The purpose of this analysis is two-fold. First, analysis of the information content of the justifications will provide a basis for deciding what knowledge must be represented if human-like justifications are to be produced. Second, an analysis of the textual organization of the justifications will be used in the development of a mechanism for selecting and organizing the knowledge to be included in a computer-produced explanation. This paper describes a preliminary analysis done of justifications written by people for a planning task. It is clear that these justifications differ significantly from those that would be produced by an expert system by tracing the firing of production rules. The results from the text analysis have been used to develop an augmented phrase structured grammar (APSG) describing the organization of the justifications. The grammar was designed to provide a computationally feasible method for determining textual organization that will allow the necessary information to be communicated in a cohesive manner.

  20. Diet expert subsystem for CELSS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yendler, Boris S.; Nguyen, Thoi K.; Waleh, Ahmad

    1991-01-01

    An account is given of the mathematical basis of a diet-controlling expert system, designated 'Ceres' for the human crews of a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS). The Ceres methodology can furnish both steady-state and dynamic diet solutions; the differences between Ceres and a conventional nutritional-modeling method is illustrated by the case of a three-component, potato-wheat-soybean food system. Attention is given to the role of food processing in furnishing flexibility in diet-planning management. Crew diet solutions based on simple optimizations are not necessarily the most suitable for optimum CELSS operation.

  1. Fuzzy expert systems using CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Le, Thach C.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a CLIPS-based fuzzy expert system development environment called FCLIPS and illustrates its application to the simulated cart-pole balancing problem. FCLIPS is a straightforward extension of CLIPS without any alteration to the CLIPS internal structures. It makes use of the object-oriented and module features in CLIPS version 6.0 for the implementation of fuzzy logic concepts. Systems of varying degrees of mixed Boolean and fuzzy rules can be implemented in CLIPS. Design and implementation issues of FCLIPS will also be discussed.

  2. 28 CFR 80.11 - Effect of FCPA Opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Effect of FCPA Opinion. 80.11 Section 80.11 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) FOREIGN CORRUPT PRACTICES ACT OPINION PROCEDURE § 80.11 Effect of FCPA Opinion. Except as specified in § 80.10, an FCPA Opinion will not bind...

  3. A Self-Categorization Explanation for Opinion Consensus Perceptions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Jinguang; Reid, Scott A.

    2013-01-01

    The public expression of opinions (and related communicative activities) hinges upon the perception of opinion consensus. Current explanations for opinion consensus perceptions typically focus on egocentric and other biases, rather than functional cognitions. Using self-categorization theory we showed that opinion consensus perceptions flow from…

  4. [Diagnosing and expertizing asbestos-induced occupational diseases].

    PubMed

    Baur, X; Schneider, J; Woitowitz, H-J

    2011-11-01

    Due to latency periods that can last for decades, asbestos-related diseases show 18 years after the enforcement of the prohibition of asbestos application in Germany their highest numbers. In the centre of attention are asbestos-induced pleural fibroses, mesotheliomas, asbestoses, lung and laryngeal cancer. Diagnosing and expertizing these diseases causes difficulties, is hitherto non-uniform and does frequently not correspond to the current medico-scientific expertise. This induced the German Respiratory Society as well as the German Society of Occupational and Environmental Medicine in cooperation with the German Society of Pathology, the German Radiology Society and the German Society of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Cervical Surgery, to develop the above mentioned guideline during seven meetings moderated by AWMF. The required thorough diagnosis is based on the detailed recording of a qualified occupational history. Since the sole radiological and pathological-anatomical findings cannot sufficiently contribute to the causal relationship the occupational history recorded by a general physician and a specialist is of decisive importance. These physicians have to report suspected occupational diseases and to advise patients on social and medical questions. Frequently, problems occur if the recognition of an occupational disease is neglected due to a supposedly too low exposure or too few ferruginous bodies or low fibre concentrations in lung tissue. The new S2k directive summarizing the current medico-scientific knowledge is for this reason, for diagnoses and expert opinions as well as for the determination of a reduced capacity for work a very important source of information.

  5. Utilizing Expert Knowledge in Estimating Future STS Costs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fortner, David B.; Ruiz-Torres, Alex J.

    2004-01-01

    A method of estimating the costs of future space transportation systems (STSs) involves classical activity-based cost (ABC) modeling combined with systematic utilization of the knowledge and opinions of experts to extend the process-flow knowledge of existing systems to systems that involve new materials and/or new architectures. The expert knowledge is particularly helpful in filling gaps that arise in computational models of processes because of inconsistencies in historical cost data. Heretofore, the costs of planned STSs have been estimated following a "top-down" approach that tends to force the architectures of new systems to incorporate process flows like those of the space shuttles. In this ABC-based method, one makes assumptions about the processes, but otherwise follows a "bottoms up" approach that does not force the new system architecture to incorporate a space-shuttle-like process flow. Prototype software has been developed to implement this method. Through further development of software, it should be possible to extend the method beyond the space program to almost any setting in which there is a need to estimate the costs of a new system and to extend the applicable knowledge base in order to make the estimate.

  6. Behavioural Signs of Pain in Cats: An Expert Consensus

    PubMed Central

    Merola, Isabella; Mills, Daniel S.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To identify where a consensus can be reached between veterinary experts in feline medicine on the core signs sufficient for pain (sufficient to indicate pain when they occur, but not necessarily present in all painful conditions) and necessary for pain (necessary in the presence of pain, but not always indicative of pain). Methods A modified Delphi technique was used, consisting of four rounds of questions and evaluation using nineteen participants during the period December 2014 and May 2015. Agreement was considered to be established when 80% of the experts concurred with the same opinion. Results Twenty-five signs were considered sufficient to indicate pain, but no single sign was considered necessary for it. Discussion Further studies are needed to evaluate the validity of these 25 behavioural signs if a specific pain assessment tool is to be developed that is capable of assessing pain in cats based on observational methods alone. The signs reported here may nonetheless help both vets and owners form an initial evaluation of the pain status of cats in their care. PMID:26909809

  7. Neuropsychologist Experts and Civil Capacity Evaluations: Representative Cases.

    PubMed

    Kaufmann, Paul M

    2016-09-01

    Clinical neuropsychologists accept more forensic referrals now and spend more time in forensic consulting than ever before. Recent surveys show weekly hours devoted to forensic consulting increased 97% in the past decade. During the same time period, the number of board certified neuropsychologists more than doubled. Under recently published Specialty Guidelines for Forensic Psychology, clinical neuropsychologists practice forensic psychology when applying scientific, technical, or specialized knowledge of neuropsychology to the law to assist in addressing legal, contractual, or administrative matters. Among those increasingly varied forensic referrals, clinical neuropsychologists are conducting more civil competency and capacity evaluations. Representative cases from three jurisdictions demonstrate how neuropsychologists provide expertize in matters involving testamentary capacity, contractual capacity, business judgments, and job capacity. Case presentations illustrate some of the strengths and weaknesses of neuropsychological evaluation of civil capacities. The article concludes with a "battle of experts" case involving five neuropsychologists with opposing opinions recently heard in a Federal Appellate court. Implications for neuropschology training and forensic competencies are considered. In offering quality services to the legal profession, neuropsychologists support the truth-seeking function of the judiciary, promote justice, protect the profession, and serve public policy.

  8. The role of the expert witness.

    PubMed

    Jerrold, Laurance

    2007-08-01

    The role of expert witnesses in medical malpractice litigation is often misunderstood. Much maligned, the expert has been the subject of castigation by a range of people, from his professional colleagues to the jurists who preside over his testimony. From an academic perspective, the expert witness is a necessary evil, and his denigration is his own doing; for the expert is a neutral character who creates his own professional persona. This purpose of this article is to serve as a primer for those interested in understanding the role that the expert is supposed to play in litigation, and the factors surrounding his activities.

  9. [Medicolegal opinions assessing the ability to undergo imprisonment vs. capacity of the Prison Health Service facilities].

    PubMed

    Jurek, Tomasz; Bujak, Marek; Szostak, Maciej; Swiatek, Barbara

    2008-01-01

    Estimating the subject's ability to undergo imprisonment has become a medicolegal opinionating problem. Polish penal law indicates the presence of negative prerequisites, such as a "serious disease" and "important health-associated reasons". In these cases, the conditions of imprisonment pose a direct danger of death or detriment to health. Interruption of imprisonment or remission of the penalty of imprisonment must constitute the only possibility of avoiding such dangers. In his opinion, the expert should define the health-associated needs of the condemned and the possibilities of meeting such needs in the situation of imprisonment, also taking into consideration the capacity of the prison health service facility and its cooperation with regular health care institutions.

  10. Differentiating experts' anticipatory skills in beach volleyball.

    PubMed

    Cañal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J P

    2011-12-01

    In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos of attack sequences that were occluded at three different times and to predict the outcome of these situations. Results showed that expert players and coaches (who were both perceptual-motor experts) outperformed the expert referees (who were watching experts but did not have the same motor expertise) and the control group in the latest occlusion condition (i.e., at spiker-ball contact). This finding suggests that perceptual-motor expertise may contribute to successful action anticipation in beach volleyball.

  11. System for empirical experimentation with expert knowledge

    SciTech Connect

    Politakis, P.; Weiss, S.M.

    1982-01-01

    SEEK is a system which has been developed to give interactive advice about rule refinement during the design of an expert system. The advice takes the form of suggestions for possible experiments in generalizing or specializing rules in an expert model that has been specified based on reasoning rules cited by the expert. Case experience, in the form of stored cases with known conclusions, is used to interactively guide the expert in refining the rules of a model. The design framework of SEEK consists of a tabular model for expressing expert-modeled rules and a general consultation system for applying a model to specific cases. This approach has proven particularly valuable in assisting the expert in a domain where two diagnoses are difficult to distinguish. Examples are given from an expert consultation system being developed for rheumatology. 12 references.

  12. Species identification by experts and non-experts: comparing images from field guides

    PubMed Central

    Austen, G. E.; Bindemann, M.; Griffiths, R. A.; Roberts, D. L.

    2016-01-01

    Accurate species identification is fundamental when recording ecological data. However, the ability to correctly identify organisms visually is rarely questioned. We investigated how experts and non-experts compared in the identification of bumblebees, a group of insects of considerable conservation concern. Experts and non-experts were asked whether two concurrent bumblebee images depicted the same or two different species. Overall accuracy was below 60% and comparable for experts and non-experts. However, experts were more consistent in their answers when the same images were repeated, and more cautious in committing to a definitive answer. Our findings demonstrate the difficulty of correctly identifying bumblebees using images from field guides. Such error rates need to be accounted for when interpreting species data, whether or not they have been collected by experts. We suggest that investigation of how experts and non-experts make observations should be incorporated into study design, and could be used to improve training in species identification. PMID:27644140

  13. Nickel hydrogen battery expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shiva, Sajjan G.

    1991-01-01

    The Hubble Telescope Battery Testbed at MSFC uses the Nickel Cadmium (NiCd) Battery Expert System (NICBES-2) which supports the evaluation of performance of Hubble Telescope spacecraft batteries and provides alarm diagnosis and action advice. NICBES-2 provides a reasoning system along with a battery domain knowledge base to achieve this battery health management function. An effort is summarized which was used to modify NICBES-2 to accommodate Nickel Hydrogen (NiH2) battery environment now in MSFC testbed. The NICBES-2 is implemented on a Sun Microsystem and is written in SunOS C and Quintus Prolog. The system now operates in a multitasking environment. NICBES-2 spawns three processes: serial port process (SPP); data handler process (DHP); and the expert system process (ESP) in order to process the telemetry data and provide the status and action advice. NICBES-2 performs orbit data gathering, data evaluation, alarm diagnosis and action advice and status and history display functions. The adaptation of NICBES-2 to work with NiH2 battery environment required modification to all of the three component processes.

  14. Expert system validation in prolog

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stock, Todd; Stachowitz, Rolf; Chang, Chin-Liang; Combs, Jacqueline

    1988-01-01

    An overview of the Expert System Validation Assistant (EVA) is being implemented in Prolog at the Lockheed AI Center. Prolog was chosen to facilitate rapid prototyping of the structure and logic checkers and since February 1987, we have implemented code to check for irrelevance, subsumption, duplication, deadends, unreachability, and cycles. The architecture chosen is extremely flexible and expansible, yet concise and complementary with the normal interactive style of Prolog. The foundation of the system is in the connection graph representation. Rules and facts are modeled as nodes in the graph and arcs indicate common patterns between rules. The basic activity of the validation system is then a traversal of the connection graph, searching for various patterns the system recognizes as erroneous. To aid in specifying these patterns, a metalanguage is developed, providing the user with the basic facilities required to reason about the expert system. Using the metalanguage, the user can, for example, give the Prolog inference engine the goal of finding inconsistent conclusions among the rules, and Prolog will search the graph intantiations which can match the definition of inconsistency. Examples of code for some of the checkers are provided and the algorithms explained. Technical highlights include automatic construction of a connection graph, demonstration of the use of metalanguage, the A* algorithm modified to detect all unique cycles, general-purpose stacks in Prolog, and a general-purpose database browser with pattern completion.

  15. Expert system for groundwater modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Venoge, T.P. de; Stauffer, T.B.; Medina, M.; Jacobs, T.

    1994-12-31

    Hazardous waste site remedial investigations and feasibility studies generally involve some degree of groundwater modeling. A plethora of models exist and most models are difficult to use. An expert system has been developed to lead the user to the appropriate model(s) based on responses to questions about site conditions and data availability. The system is menu driven, user friendly, and provides assistance in estimating input parameters where field measurements are lacking. The system contains twelve models, both analytical and numerical models, that are in the public domain. Some of the models included in the system are MOC, MODFLOW, BIOPLUME, RESSQ, TDAST and PLUME2D. Preprocessors and post processors have been written to permit easy data input and to provide understandable and interpretable data output. There are two versions of the expert system that are available. One version is a UNIX based system that works through the windows environment and provides excellent graphics capabilities. The other version is DOS based and will run on a 386 processor or higher system with 10 megabytes of available hard disk space.

  16. 'What on earth can this possibly mean'? French reentry courts and experts' risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Herzog-Evans, Martine

    2016-01-01

    Against the backdrop of ten years of punitive criminal justice policies, the number of cases in which risk assessments by psychiatrist experts are mandatory has considerably increased in France. Because of complex and deeply ingrained cultural factors, most experts and academics oppose the use of actuarial or other structured judgement tools, which they assimilate to these policy changes. Parallel to this, the reentry judges in charge of making release and other community sentence decisions have maintained a strong rehabilitative and desistance-focused culture. Drawing on interviews with these judges and experts, the author wanted to assess the judges' expectations of experts' reports, their opinion on actuarial tools, and how they perceived experts and their aptitude to assess risk. The study showed that French reentry judges manage to keep experts' conclusions at bay when they do not fit with their desistance goals, as they can draw upon their own expertise and that of probation services. They do not have much faith in the professionalism and methodology of experts, and would like them to better demonstrate how they reach their conclusions. Moreover, criminogenic needs assessment would be much more useful to them than static risk assessment, which raises the issue as to why this is not the French probation services' role. Reentry judges who never encountered a report which uses a structured tool are influenced by the French ideological debate; those who have read such reports are unanimously in favour of such tools. It thus seems clear that they would like experts to be more strongly guided by science, but are not yet fully aware of what this entails.

  17. Opinion formation with time-varying bounded confidence.

    PubMed

    Zhang, YunHong; Liu, QiPeng; Zhang, SiYing

    2017-01-01

    When individuals in social groups communicate with one another and are under the influence of neighbors' opinions, they typically revise their own opinions to adapt to such peer opinions. The individual threshold of bounded confidence will thus be affected by both a change in individual confidence and by neighbor influence. Individuals thus update their own opinions with new bounded confidence, while their updated opinions also influence their neighbors' opinions. Based on this reasoned factual assumption, we propose an opinion dynamics model with time-varying bounded confidence. A directed network is formed by the rule of the individual bounded confidence threshold. The threshold of individual bounded confidence involves both confidence variation and the in/out degree of the individual node. When the confidence variation is greater, an individual's confidence in persisting in his own opinion in interactions is weaker, and the individual is more likely to adopt neighbors' opinions. In networks, the in/out degree is determined by individual neighbors. Our main research involves the process of opinion evolution and the basic laws of opinion cluster formation. Group opinions converge exponentially to consensus with stable neighbors. An individual opinion evolution is determined by the average neighbor opinion effect strength. We also explore the conditions involved in forming a stable neighbor relationship and the influence of the confidence variation in the convergence of the threshold of bounded confidence. The results show that the influence on opinion evolution is greater with increased confidence variation.

  18. Opinion formation with time-varying bounded confidence

    PubMed Central

    Liu, QiPeng; Zhang, SiYing

    2017-01-01

    When individuals in social groups communicate with one another and are under the influence of neighbors’ opinions, they typically revise their own opinions to adapt to such peer opinions. The individual threshold of bounded confidence will thus be affected by both a change in individual confidence and by neighbor influence. Individuals thus update their own opinions with new bounded confidence, while their updated opinions also influence their neighbors’ opinions. Based on this reasoned factual assumption, we propose an opinion dynamics model with time-varying bounded confidence. A directed network is formed by the rule of the individual bounded confidence threshold. The threshold of individual bounded confidence involves both confidence variation and the in/out degree of the individual node. When the confidence variation is greater, an individual’s confidence in persisting in his own opinion in interactions is weaker, and the individual is more likely to adopt neighbors’ opinions. In networks, the in/out degree is determined by individual neighbors. Our main research involves the process of opinion evolution and the basic laws of opinion cluster formation. Group opinions converge exponentially to consensus with stable neighbors. An individual opinion evolution is determined by the average neighbor opinion effect strength. We also explore the conditions involved in forming a stable neighbor relationship and the influence of the confidence variation in the convergence of the threshold of bounded confidence. The results show that the influence on opinion evolution is greater with increased confidence variation. PMID:28264038

  19. Information Filtering Based on Users' Negative Opinions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Qiang; Li, Yang; Liu, Jian-Guo

    2013-05-01

    The process of heat conduction (HC) has recently found application in the information filtering [Zhang et al., Phys. Rev. Lett.99, 154301 (2007)], which is of high diversity but low accuracy. The classical HC model predicts users' potential interested objects based on their interesting objects regardless to the negative opinions. In terms of the users' rating scores, we present an improved user-based HC (UHC) information model by taking into account users' positive and negative opinions. Firstly, the objects rated by users are divided into positive and negative categories, then the predicted interesting and dislike object lists are generated by the UHC model. Finally, the recommendation lists are constructed by filtering out the dislike objects from the interesting lists. By implementing the new model based on nine similarity measures, the experimental results for MovieLens and Netflix datasets show that the new model considering negative opinions could greatly enhance the accuracy, measured by the average ranking score, from 0.049 to 0.036 for Netflix and from 0.1025 to 0.0570 for Movielens dataset, reduced by 26.53% and 44.39%, respectively. Since users prefer to give positive ratings rather than negative ones, the negative opinions contain much more information than the positive ones, the negative opinions, therefore, are very important for understanding users' online collective behaviors and improving the performance of HC model.

  20. [Qualification of persons taking part in psychiatric opinion-giving in a penal trial].

    PubMed

    Zgryzek, K

    1998-01-01

    Introduction of new Penal code by the Parliament brings about the necessity of conducting a detailed analysis of particular legal solutions in the code. The authors present an analysis of selected issues included in the Penal Code, referring to proof from the opinion of psychiatric experts, particularly those regarding professional qualifications of persons appointed by the court in a penal trial to assess mental health state of definite persons (a witness, a victim, the perpetrator). It was accepted that the only persons authorized the conduct psychiatric examination in a penal trial are those with at least first degree specialization in psychiatry.

  1. The Desired Learning Outcomes of School-Based Nutrition/Physical Activity Health Education: A Health Literacy Constructed Delphi Survey of Finnish Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ormshaw, Michael James; Kokko, Sami Petteri; Villberg, Jari; Kannas, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to utilise the collective opinion of a group of Finnish experts to identify the most important learning outcomes of secondary-level school-based health education, in the specific domains of physical activity and nutrition. Design/ Methodology/ Approach: The study uses a Delphi survey technique to collect the…

  2. Primary Care Pediatricians' Experience, Comfort and Competence in the Evaluation and Management of Child Maltreatment: Do We Need Child Abuse Experts?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lane, Wendy G.; Dubowitz, Howard

    2009-01-01

    Objective: We assessed the self-reported experience, comfort and competence of primary care pediatricians in evaluating and managing child maltreatment (CM), in rendering opinions regarding the likelihood of CM, and in providing court testimony. We examined pediatricians' need for expert consultation when evaluating possible maltreatment. Methods:…

  3. Using expert elicitation to quantify catchment water balances and their uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sebok, E.; Refsgaard, J. C.; Warmink, J. J.; Stisen, S.; Jensen, K. H.

    2016-07-01

    Expert elicitation with the participation of 35 experts was used to estimate a water balance for the nested Ahlergaarde and Holtum catchments in Western Denmark. Average annual values of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and surface runoff as well as subsurface outflow and recharge and their uncertainty were estimated in a multistep elicitation, where experts first gave their opinion on the probability distribution of their water balance component of interest, then the average annual values and uncertainty of water balance components and catchment-scale water balances were obtained by reaching consensus during group discussions. The obtained water balance errors for the 1055 km2 Ahlergaarde catchment and 120 km2 Holtum catchment were -5 and -62 mm/yr, respectively, with an uncertainty of 66 and 86 mm/yr, respectively. As an advantage of the expert elicitation, drawing on the intuitive experience and capabilities of experts to assess complex, site-specific problems, the contribution of independent sources of uncertainties to the total uncertainty was also evaluated similarly to the subsurface outflow component, which traditionally is estimated as the residual of the water balance.

  4. Rank aggregation of local expert knowledge for conservation planning of the critically endangered saola.

    PubMed

    Wilkinson, Nicholas M; Van Duc, Luong

    2016-10-08

    There has been much recent interest in using local knowledge and expert opinion for conservation planning, particularly for hard-to-detect species. Although it is possible to ask for direct estimation of quantities such as population size, relative abundance is easier to estimate. However, an expert's knowledge is often geographically restricted relative to the area of interest. Combining (or aggregating) experts' assessments of relative abundance is difficult when each expert only knows a part of the area of interest. We used Google's PageRank algorithm to aggregate ranked abundance scores elicited from local experts through a rapid rural-appraisal method. We applied this technique to conservation planning for the saola (Pseudoryx nghetinhensis), a poorly known bovid. Near a priority landscape for the species, composed of 3 contiguous protected areas, we asked groups of local people to indicate relative abundances of saola and other species by placing beans on community maps. For each village, we used this information to rank areas within the knowledge area of that village for saola abundance. We used simulations to compare alternative methods to aggregate the rankings from the different villages. The best-performing method was then used to produce a single map of relative abundance across the entire landscape, an area larger than that known to any one village. This map has informed prioritization of surveys and conservation action in the continued absence of direct information about the saola.

  5. The diagnosis of microcytic anemia by a rule-based expert system using VP-Expert.

    PubMed

    O'Connor, M L; McKinney, T

    1989-09-01

    We describe our experience in creating a rule-based expert system for the interpretation of microcytic anemia using the expert system development tool, VP-Expert, running on an IBM personal computer. VP-Expert processes data (complete blood cell count results, age, and sex) according to a set of user-written logic rules (our program) to reach conclusions as to the following causes of microcytic anemia: alpha- and beta-thalassemia trait, iron deficiency, and anemia of chronic disease. Our expert system was tested using previously interpreted complete blood cell count data. In most instances, there was good agreement between the expert system and its pathologist-author, but many discrepancies were found in the interpretation of anemia of chronic disease. We conclude that VP-Expert has a useful level of power and flexibility, yet is simple enough that individuals with modest programming experience can create their own expert systems. Limitations of such expert systems are discussed.

  6. Analysing Customer Opinions with Text Mining Algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Consoli, Domenico

    2009-08-01

    Knowing what the customer thinks of a particular product/service helps top management to introduce improvements in processes and products, thus differentiating the company from their competitors and gain competitive advantages. The customers, with their preferences, determine the success or failure of a company. In order to know opinions of the customers we can use technologies available from the web 2.0 (blog, wiki, forums, chat, social networking, social commerce). From these web sites, useful information must be extracted, for strategic purposes, using techniques of sentiment analysis or opinion mining.

  7. Thermal agents in rehabilitation. Volume 1

    SciTech Connect

    Michlovitz, S.L.; Davis, F.A.

    1986-01-01

    This text reviews the applications of thermal agents in rehabilitation to reduce pain, improve joint range of motion, and enhance healing. Expert contributors explore the uses of water, sound, electricity, and external pressure - any agent other than the hands themselves as employed in physical therapy. Heat and cold agents are described and their methods of application discussed, as well as the rationale for use of that modality. Also outlined are guidelines for safety given the limitations and conditions caused by particular dysfunctions, maintenance of equipment, and the current research on each agent. A list of manufacturers of thermal devices and a temperature conversion scale appear in the appendices.

  8. Brain response to birdsongs in bird experts.

    PubMed

    Chartrand, Jean-Pierre; Filion-Bilodeau, Sarah; Belin, Pascal

    2007-03-05

    Auditory expertise has mostly been studied in relation to musical processing, but expert auditory processing can also involve nonmusical auditory stimuli, such as birdsongs in bird experts. In this study, the neural correlates of bird expertise were investigated by using electroencephalography to measure auditory-evoked potentials in bird experts and novices. Auditory stimuli in three categories (birdsongs, environmental sounds and voices) were presented in a pseudo-random order while participants performed a simple target detection task (pure tone). We observed similar amplitudes and distributions of the N100-component in bird experts and novices. In contrast, the amplitude of the P200 component was significantly smaller in bird experts at the Pz and Cz electrodes, reflecting a more frontal topography of this positivity. Notably, this group difference was observed not only for birdsongs, but also for voices and environmental sounds, suggesting a general processing difference in bird experts, not restricted to the category of expertise.

  9. SENLEX: a sensor layout expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Ward, J.D.; Sena, K.J.

    1986-06-25

    An expert system is under development to carry out intrusion detection sensor placement for physical security systems. Expert systems are computer programs that use symbolic programming techniques to duplicate the reasoning processes of human experts. Because sensitive facilities often require complex, multi-sensor intrusion detection systems, the design rules for achieving high levels of detection performance are not easily transferred to novices. Since these design rules reside in the minds of the individual experts performing the tasks, the need to consolidate this knowledge in a form that is available to others was a driving force in this project. The first phase of this project is described in this paper. It consists of an expert system for sensor placement in a graded clear zone. The program has the capability of handling several different sensor types and of coordinating the placement of multiple sensor types. The designs produced by the program in comparison with the designs produced by human experts are discussed.

  10. Expert Meeting Report: Foundations Research Results

    SciTech Connect

    Ojczyk, C.; Huelman, P.; Carmody, J.

    2013-05-01

    In the Expert Meeting Plan, the NorthernSTAR Team proposed to host two Expert Meetings in calendar year 2011. Invitees to the meetings would include experts in the current field of study, other BA team members, and representatives from DOE and NREL. They will invite leading industry experts to present at these meetings. The Expert Meetings will focus on key systems areas that will be required to meet the Building America performance goals and shall be sufficiently narrow in scope that specific conclusions, action items, and delegation of future tasks can be identified and completed. The two expert meeting topics are 'Foundations' and 'Window Retrofit.' The first session is designed as a webinar only and the second will be a live meeting.

  11. Role of chemotherapy and molecularly targeted agents in the treatment of adenoid cystic carcinoma of the lacrimal gland.

    PubMed

    Le Tourneau, Christophe; Razak, Albiruni R A; Levy, Christine; Calugaru, Valentin; Galatoire, Olivier; Dendale, Rémi; Desjardins, Laurence; Gan, Hui K

    2011-11-01

    Adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC) is the most common malignant epithelial cancer of the lacrimal gland. Despite a slow rate of growth, ACCs are ultimately associated with poor clinical outcome. Given the rarity of this disease, most recommendations regarding therapy are guided by expert opinion and retrospective data rather than level 1 evidence. Surgery and postoperative radiation therapy are commonly used as initial local treatment. In patients at high risk of recurrence, concomitant platinum-based chemotherapy may be added to postoperative radiotherapy in an attempt to enhance radio-sensitivity. While encouraging responses have been reported with intra-arterial neoadjuvant chemotherapy, this strategy is associated with substantial toxicity and should be considered investigational. For patients with metastatic disease not amenable to surgery or radiotherapy, chemotherapy may have a role based on its modest efficacy in non-lacrimal ACC. Similarly, molecular targeted agents may have a role, although the agents tested to date in non-lacrimal ACC have been disappointing. A better understanding of the biology of ACC will be crucial to the future success of developing targeted agents for this disease.

  12. Statistical Fault Detection & Diagnosis Expert System

    SciTech Connect

    Wegerich, Stephan

    1996-12-18

    STATMON is an expert system that performs real-time fault detection and diagnosis of redundant sensors in any industrial process requiring high reliability. After a training period performed during normal operation, the expert system monitors the statistical properties of the incoming signals using a pattern recognition test. If the test determines that statistical properties of the signals have changed, the expert system performs a sequence of logical steps to determine which sensor or machine component has degraded.

  13. Liquid low level waste management expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Ferrada, J.J.; Abraham, T.J. ); Jackson, J.R. )

    1991-01-01

    An expert system has been developed as part of a new initiative for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) systems analysis program. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem, as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. 4 refs., 9 figs.

  14. Collaborative Information Agents on the World Wide Web

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, James R.; Mathe, Nathalie; Wolfe, Shawn; Koga, Dennis J. (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    In this paper, we present DIAMS, a system of distributed, collaborative information agents which help users access, collect, organize, and exchange information on the World Wide Web. Personal agents provide their owners dynamic displays of well organized information collections, as well as friendly information management utilities. Personal agents exchange information with one another. They also work with other types of information agents such as matchmakers and knowledge experts to facilitate collaboration and communication.

  15. Opinion and evidence for treatments in endocrine disorders.

    PubMed

    2006-01-01

    New treatments and treatment protocols for endocrine disorders are evolving rapidly, and research and development activity in the endocrinology field is high. Optimal therapy remains contentious in some areas. To help you keep up to date with the latest advances worldwide on all aspects of drug therapy and management of endocrine disorders, this section of the journal brings you information selected from the rapid drug news alerting service Inpharma WeeklyInpharma Weekly provides rapid alerts to news on drugs and drug therapy. Summarizing information selected from over 1600 biomedical journals, this newsletter is produced by Adis International Limited and is available in a variety of formats. Please contact your nearest Adis office for subscription details. The use of trade names, identified by ['~'] or the use of a registered (((R))) or trademark (trade mark) symbol, is for product identification purposes only and does not imply endorsement.. Each issue contains easy-to-read summaries of the most important research and development news, clinical studies, treatment guidelines, pharmacoeconomic and adverse drug reaction news, and expert opinion pieces published in the world's top endocrinology journals.

  16. Extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy: An opinion on its future

    PubMed Central

    Rassweiler, Jens; Rassweiler, Marie-Claire; Frede, Thomas; Alken, Peter

    2014-01-01

    The development of miniaturized nephroscopes which allow one-stage stone clearance with minimal morbidity has brought the role of shock wave lithotripsy (SWL) in stone management into question. Design innovations in SWL machines over the last decade have attempted to address this problem. We reviewed the recent literature on SWL using a MEDLINE/PUBMED research. For commenting on the future of SWL, we took the subjective opinion of two senior urologists, one mid-level expert, and an upcoming junior fellow. There have been a number of recent changes in lithotripter design and techniques. This includes the use of multiple focus machines and improved coupling designs. Additional changes involve better localization real-time monitoring. The main goal of stone treatment today seems to be to get rid of the stone in one session rather than being treated multiple times non-invasively. Stone treatment in the future will be individualized by genetic screening of stone formers, using improved SWL devices for small stones only. However, there is still no consensus about the design of the ideal lithotripter. Innovative concepts such as emergency SWL for ureteric stones may be implemented in clinical routine. PMID:24497687

  17. 24 CFR 1710.17 - Advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 5 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Advisory opinion. 1710.17 Section 1710.17 Housing and Urban Development Regulations Relating to Housing and Urban Development (Continued... the Housing and Urban Development Act of 1968 (83 Stat. 598, 15 U.S.C. 1717 as amended) provides:...

  18. Farmers' Opinions about Third-Wave Technologies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lasley, Paul; Bultena, Gordon

    The opinions of 1,585 Iowa farmers about 8 emergent agricultural technologies (energy production from feed grains and oils; energy production from livestock waste; genetic engineering research on plants, livestock, and humans; robotics for on-farm use; confinement livestock facilities; and personal computers for farm families) were found to be…

  19. Students and Instructors Opinions about Piano Instruction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kilic, Deniz Beste Çevik

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the opinions of the students and piano instructors in the Turkish Education Faculties' Fine Arts Instruction Departments' music instruction programs about piano instruction. The study data were collected using a questionnaire administered to the piano instructors and the students who took lessons from them. The study results…

  20. Collaborators' Attitudes about Differences of Opinion.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Creamer, Elizabeth G.

    The attitudes of long-term collaborators on research publications about the negotiation of substantive differences of opinion were studied. Long-term collaborators were those who had co-authored publications with another academic for 10 years or more. Multiple sources of data collected from both members of 12 collaborative pairs included…

  1. Opinion and Special Articles: "Physician debtor".

    PubMed

    Scharf, Eugene L; Jones, Lyell K

    2016-01-19

    The increasing cost of attending medical school has contributed to increasing physician indebtedness. The burden of medical school debt has implications for physician career choice, professional satisfaction, and burnout. This opinion discusses the impact of physician indebtedness, the importance of improving debt awareness among neurology trainees, and program- and policy-level solutions to the debt crisis.

  2. Decision-Making When Public Opinion Matters

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coppock, Rob

    1977-01-01

    Discusses the impact of public opinion on government decision-making, and develops a model that describes how certain input or control factors can combine to produce discontinuous or divergent policy decisions. Available from: Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, Box 211, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, single copies available. (Author/JG)

  3. Public opinion factors regarding nuclear power

    SciTech Connect

    Benson, B.

    1991-12-31

    This paper is an effort to identify, as comprehensively as possible, public concerns about nuclear power, and to assess, where possible, the relative importance of these concerns as they relate to government regulation of and policy towards nuclear power. It is based on some two dozen in-depth interviews with key communicators representing the nuclear power industry, the environmental community, and government, as well as on the parallel efforts in our research project: (1) review of federal court case law, (2) a selective examination of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) administrative process, and (3) the preceding George Mason University research project in this series. The paper synthesizes our findings about public attitudes towards nuclear power as expressed through federal court case law, NRC administrative law, public opinion surveys, and direct personal interviews. In so doing, we describe the public opinion environment in which the nuclear regulatory process must operate. Our premise is that public opinion ultimately underlies the approaches government agencies take towards regulating nuclear power, and that, to the degree that the nuclear power industry`s practices are aligned with public opinion, a more favorable regulatory climate is possible.

  4. Public opinion factors regarding nuclear power

    SciTech Connect

    Benson, B.

    1991-01-01

    This paper is an effort to identify, as comprehensively as possible, public concerns about nuclear power, and to assess, where possible, the relative importance of these concerns as they relate to government regulation of and policy towards nuclear power. It is based on some two dozen in-depth interviews with key communicators representing the nuclear power industry, the environmental community, and government, as well as on the parallel efforts in our research project: (1) review of federal court case law, (2) a selective examination of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) administrative process, and (3) the preceding George Mason University research project in this series. The paper synthesizes our findings about public attitudes towards nuclear power as expressed through federal court case law, NRC administrative law, public opinion surveys, and direct personal interviews. In so doing, we describe the public opinion environment in which the nuclear regulatory process must operate. Our premise is that public opinion ultimately underlies the approaches government agencies take towards regulating nuclear power, and that, to the degree that the nuclear power industry's practices are aligned with public opinion, a more favorable regulatory climate is possible.

  5. 5 CFR 2636.103 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... management policy or directive. Where an employee has actual knowledge or reason to believe that the opinion is based on fraudulent, misleading, or otherwise incorrect information, the employee's reliance on... EARNED INCOME, EMPLOYMENT AND AFFILIATIONS FOR CERTAIN NONCAREER EMPLOYEES General Provisions §...

  6. 5 CFR 2636.103 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... management policy or directive. Where an employee has actual knowledge or reason to believe that the opinion is based on fraudulent, misleading, or otherwise incorrect information, the employee's reliance on... EARNED INCOME, EMPLOYMENT AND AFFILIATIONS FOR CERTAIN NONCAREER EMPLOYEES General Provisions §...

  7. 5 CFR 2636.103 - Advisory opinions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... management policy or directive. Where an employee has actual knowledge or reason to believe that the opinion is based on fraudulent, misleading, or otherwise incorrect information, the employee's reliance on... EARNED INCOME, EMPLOYMENT AND AFFILIATIONS FOR CERTAIN NONCAREER EMPLOYEES General Provisions §...

  8. The management education imperative: an opinion.

    PubMed

    Wellever, A L

    1982-01-01

    This article presents an opinion on the need for middle-management education in the four basic functions of management: planning, organizing, directing, and controlling. Using nursing management as an example, the author describes the role of middle management in complex organizations and states that the job of management is to ensure the efficiency and effectiveness of work performed by others.

  9. Psychiatric Opinion and Homosexuality: A Short Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barr, R. F.; And Others

    1975-01-01

    In a survey of opinion among 100 psychiatrists and 93 trainees in Australia, the majority endorsed the view either that "homosexuality is a developmental anomaly not necessarily or commonly associated with neurotic symptoms" or that "homosexuality is a normal variant like left-handedness." (Author)

  10. No Common Opinion on the Common Core

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Henderson, Michael B.; Peterson, Paul E.; West, Martin R.

    2015-01-01

    According to the three authors of this article, the 2014 "EdNext" poll yields four especially important new findings: (1) Opinion with respect to the Common Core has yet to coalesce. The idea of a common set of standards across the country has wide appeal, and the Common Core itself still commands the support of a majority of the public.…

  11. Satellite operations support expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    The Satellite Operations Support Expert System is an effort to identify aspects of satellite ground support activity which could profitably be automated with artificial intelligence (AI) and to develop a feasibility demonstration for the automation of one such area. The hydrazine propulsion subsystems (HPS) of the International Sun Earth Explorer (ISEE) and the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUS) were used as applications domains. A demonstration fault handling system was built. The system was written in Franz Lisp and is currently hosted on a VAX 11/750-11/780 family machine. The system allows the user to select which HPS (either from ISEE or IUE) is used. Then the user chooses the fault desired for the run. The demonstration system generates telemetry corresponding to the particular fault. The completely separate fault handling module then uses this telemetry to determine what and where the fault is and how to work around it. Graphics are used to depict the structure of the HPS, and the telemetry values displayed on the screen are continually updated. The capabilities of this system and its development cycle are described.

  12. Antibiotic Agents

    MedlinePlus

    ... producing ). Examples of this type are the alcohols, chlorine, peroxides, and aldehydes. The second group consists mostly ... viruses have some kind of antibacterial agent. Alcohols, chlorine and peroxides have been used for many decades ...

  13. Agent Orange

    MedlinePlus

    ... Z) Hepatitis HIV Mental Health Mental Health Home Suicide Prevention Substance Abuse Military Sexual Trauma PTSD Research ( ... eligible Veterans a free Agent Orange Registry health exam for possible long-term health problems related to ...

  14. Counseling, Artificial Intelligence, and Expert Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Illovsky, Michael E.

    1994-01-01

    Considers the use of artificial intelligence and expert systems in counseling. Limitations are explored; candidates for counseling versus those for expert systems are discussed; programming considerations are reviewed; and techniques for dealing with rational, nonrational, and irrational thoughts and feelings are described. (Contains 46…

  15. Computerized Adaptive Mastery Tests as Expert Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frick, Theodore W.

    1992-01-01

    Discussion of expert systems and computerized adaptive tests describes two versions of EXSPRT, a new approach that combines uncertain inference in expert systems with sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) stopping rules. Results of two studies comparing EXSPRT to adaptive mastery testing based on item response theory and SPRT approaches are…

  16. An expert system for restructurable control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litt, Jonathan

    1988-01-01

    Work in progress on an expert system which restructures and tunes control systems on-line is presented. The expert system coordinates the different methods for redesigning and implementing the control strategies due to system changes. The research is directed toward aircraft and jet engine applications. The implementation is written in LISP and is currently running on a special purpose LISP machine.

  17. Expert system for analyzing eddy current measurements

    DOEpatents

    Levy, Arthur J.; Oppenlander, Jane E.; Brudnoy, David M.; Englund, James M.; Loomis, Kent C.

    1994-01-01

    A method and apparatus (called DODGER) analyzes eddy current data for heat exchanger tubes or any other metallic object. DODGER uses an expert system to analyze eddy current data by reasoning with uncertainty and pattern recognition. The expert system permits DODGER to analyze eddy current data intelligently, and obviate operator uncertainty by analyzing the data in a uniform and consistent manner.

  18. Expert system for analyzing eddy current measurements

    SciTech Connect

    Levy, A.J.; Oppenlander, J.E.; Brudnoy, D.M.; Englund, J.M.; Loomis, K.C.

    1994-08-16

    A method and apparatus (called DODGER) analyzes eddy current data for heat exchanger tubes or any other metallic object. DODGER uses an expert system to analyze eddy current data by reasoning with uncertainty and pattern recognition. The expert system permits DODGER to analyze eddy current data intelligently, and obviate operator uncertainty by analyzing the data in a uniform and consistent manner. 21 figs.

  19. Expert Systems: Artificial Intelligence for Professional Decisions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schoech, Dick; And Others

    1985-01-01

    Describes expert systems which are computer programs which use inference schemes to apply generalized human expertise to the facts of a specific case. Basic concepts, potentials and implications are presented along with the issues involved in their development and use. A simple expert system, written in BASIC, is included to illustrate the…

  20. Ask-an-Expert Services Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Janes, Joseph; Hill, Chrystie; Rolfe, Alex

    2001-01-01

    Discusses the history and emergence of non-library commercial and non-commercial information services on the World Wide Web, often referred to as expert services. Describes the methodology used for a study of expert services and considers implications for further research and the development of digital reference services by libraries. (Author/LRW)

  1. 12 CFR 1081.210 - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ...; the compensation to be paid for the study and testimony; and a listing of any other cases in which the... expert's study or testimony; (2) Identify facts or data that the other party's attorney provided and that... requirement of expert discovery in appropriate cases....

  2. Toward the Development of Expert Assessment Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hasselbring, Ted S.

    1986-01-01

    The potential application of "expert systems" to the diagnosis and assessment of special-needs children is examined and existing prototype systems are reviewed. The future of this artificial intelligence technology is discussed in relation to emerging development tools designed for the creation of expert systems by the lay public. (Author)

  3. Farm Parents' Attitudes Towards Farm Safety Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neufeld, Steven J.; Cinnamon, Jennifer L.

    2004-01-01

    Using both qualitative and quantitative data, this article analyzes farm parent's attitudes towards the trustworthiness, usefulness, and use of advice from farm safety experts. The article evaluates four different perspectives on trust in expert: the Validity of Knowledge perspective, the Salient Values Similarity perspective, the Diffusion of…

  4. Scientific Problem Solving by Expert Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Good, Ron

    1984-01-01

    Human expert problem-solving in science is defined and used to account for scientific discovery. These ideas are used to describe BACON.5, a machine expert problem solver that discovers scientific laws using data-driver heuristics and "expectations" such as symmetry. Implications of BACON.5 type research for traditional science education…

  5. [The possibility of medico-legal opinionating on medical error in cases of waived postmortem examination].

    PubMed

    Kunz, Jerzy

    2008-01-01

    For several years now, with the introduction of the health care sector reform we have been observing a considerable drop in the number of postmortem examinations performed in patients who died in hospitals. The decrease amounts to as much as 50 to 70%. This is undoubtedly a consequence of financial restrictions imposed on the management of these inpatient facilities. On the other hand, Departments of Forensic Medicine established to evaluate the so-called medical errors are swamped with an increasing avalanche of complaints concerning the appropriateness of therapeutic management. This leads to a growing number of orders from penal prosecution and jurisdiction agencies with requests for assessment whether a medical error has been committed in a particular case. The result of a postmortem examination is practically the only basis for a factual evaluation of a given case. When no autopsy has been performed, the experts are virtually helpless, and in the majority of such instances, they are forced to refuse passing an expert opinion. The report presents basic principles of medico-legal opinionating in criminal cases (including proceedings pertaining to medical errors), the rules governing the medical error assessment, as well as problems encountered in evaluating the appropriate course of treatment when a post mortem examination has been waived.

  6. Discrepancy and Disliking Do Not Induce Negative Opinion Shifts

    PubMed Central

    Flache, Andreas; Mäs, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Both classical social psychological theories and recent formal models of opinion differentiation and bi-polarization assign a prominent role to negative social influence. Negative influence is defined as shifts away from the opinion of others and hypothesized to be induced by discrepancy with or disliking of the source of influence. There is strong empirical support for the presence of positive social influence (a shift towards the opinion of others), but evidence that large opinion differences or disliking could trigger negative shifts is mixed. We examine positive and negative influence with controlled exposure to opinions of other individuals in one experiment and with opinion exchange in another study. Results confirm that similarities induce attraction, but results do not support that discrepancy or disliking entails negative influence. Instead, our findings suggest a robust positive linear relationship between opinion distance and opinion shifts. PMID:27333160

  7. EMMA: The expert system for munition maintenance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mullins, Barry E.

    1988-01-01

    Expert Missile Maintenance Aid (EMMA) is a first attempt to enhance maintenance of the tactical munition at the field and depot level by using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The ultimate goal of EMMA is to help a novice maintenance technician isolate and diagnose electronic, electromechanical, and mechanical equipment faults to the board/chassis level more quickly and consistently than the best human expert using the best currently available automatic test equipment (ATE). To this end, EMMA augments existing ATE with an expert system that captures the knowledge of design and maintenance experts. The EMMA program is described, including the evaluation of field-level expert system prototypes, the description of several study tasks performed during EMMA, and future plans for a follow-on program. This paper will briefly address several study tasks performed during EMMA. The paper concludes with a discussion of future plans for a follow-on program and other areas of concern.

  8. CLIPS: An expert system building tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Riley, Gary

    1991-01-01

    The C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) is an expert system building tool, which provides a complete environment for the development and delivery of rule and/or object based expert systems. CLIPS was specifically designed to provide a low cost option for developing and deploying expert system applications across a wide range of hardware platforms. The commercial potential of CLIPS is vast. Currently, CLIPS is being used by over 3,300 individuals throughout the public and private sector. Because the CLIPS source code is readily available, numerous groups have used CLIPS as a basis for their own expert system tools. To date, three commercially available tools have been derived from CLIPS. In general, the development of CLIPS has helped to improve the ability to deliver expert system technology throughout the public and private sectors for a wide range of applications and diverse computing environments.

  9. Multiple strategies of reasoning for expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Yao Yuchuan; Kulikowski, C.A.

    1983-01-01

    In expert systems the heuristics used for combining the weight of evidence can be based on probabilistic, fuzzy set, or subjective confidence factors. Although the underlying assumptions for each of the methods differ, it can be shown that there are correspondences between them and that it is possible to develop a model of expert reasoning for medical consultation using any one of the methods. The authors have developed a system for representing expert knowledge, called ESMES, which is an outgrowth of the expert scheme developed earlier at Rutgers. ESMES allows the use of alternative strategies in the solution of a consultation problem. The authors report on the performance of ESMES for a prototype glaucoma consultation model, using reasoning mechanisms similar to those of the expert, MYCIN, Internist I, and Prospector systems. 9 references.

  10. Expert systems in treating substance abuse.

    PubMed

    Wesson, D R; Hink, R H

    1990-05-01

    Computer programs can assist humans in solving complex problems that cannot be solved by traditional computational techniques using mathematic formulas. These programs, or "expert systems," are commonly used in finance, engineering, and computer design. Although not routinely used in medicine at present, medical expert systems have been developed to assist physicians in solving many kinds of medical problems that traditionally require consultation from a physician specialist. No expert systems are available specifically for drug abuse treatment, but at least one is under development. Where access to a physician specialist in substance abuse is not available for consultation, this expert system will extend specialized substance abuse treatment expertise to nonspecialists. Medical expert systems are a developing technologic tool that can assist physicians in practicing better medicine.

  11. Consensus expert recommendations for identification and management of asparaginase hypersensitivity and silent inactivation.

    PubMed

    van der Sluis, Inge M; Vrooman, Lynda M; Pieters, Rob; Baruchel, Andre; Escherich, Gabriele; Goulden, Nicholas; Mondelaers, Veerle; Sanchez de Toledo, Jose; Rizzari, Carmelo; Silverman, Lewis B; Whitlock, James A

    2016-03-01

    L-asparaginase is an integral component of therapy for acute lymphoblastic leukemia. However, asparaginase-related complications, including the development of hypersensitivity reactions, can limit its use in individual patients. Of considerable concern in the setting of clinical allergy is the development of neutralizing antibodies and associated asparaginase inactivity. Also problematic in the use of asparaginase is the potential for the development of silent inactivation, with the formation of neutralizing antibodies and reduced asparaginase activity in the absence of a clinically evident allergic reaction. Here we present guidelines for the identification and management of clinical hypersensitivity and silent inactivation with Escherichia coli- and Erwinia chrysanthemi- derived asparaginase preparations. These guidelines were developed by a consensus panel of experts following a review of the available published data. We provide a consensus of expert opinions on the role of serum asparaginase level assessment, indications for switching asparaginase preparation, and monitoring after change in asparaginase preparation.

  12. Adaptive capture of expert behavior

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, R.D.; Barrett, C.L.; Hand, U.; Gordon, R.C.

    1994-08-01

    The authors smoothed and captured a set of expert rules with adaptive networks. The motivation for doing this is discussed. (1) Smoothing leads to stabler control actions. (2) For some sets of rules, the evaluation of the rules can be sped up. This is important in large-scale simulations where many intelligent elements are present. (3) Variability of the intelligent elements can be achieved by adjusting the weights in an adaptive network. (4) After capture has occurred, the weights can be adjusted based on performance criteria. The authors thus have the capability of learning a new set of rules that lead to better performance. The set of rules the authors chose to capture were based on a set of threat determining rules for tank commanders. The approach in this paper: (1) They smoothed the rules. The rule set was converted into a simple set of arithmetic statements. Continuous, non-binary inputs, are now permitted. (2) An operational measure of capturability was developed. (3) They chose four candidate networks for the rule set capture: (a) multi-linear network, (b) adaptive partial least squares, (c) connectionist normalized local spline (CNLS) network, and (d) CNLS net with a PLS preprocessor. These networks were able to capture the rule set to within a few percent. For the simple tank rule set, the multi-linear network performed the best. When the rules were modified to include more nonlinear behavior, CNLS net performed better than the other three nets which made linear assumptions. (4) The networks were tested for robustness to input noise. Noise levels of plus or minus 10% had no real effect on the network performance. Noise levels in the plus or minus 30% range degraded performance by a factor of two. Some performance enhancement occurred when the networks were trained with noisy data. (5) The scaling of the evaluation time was calculated. (6) Human variation can be mimicked in all the networks by perturbing the weights.

  13. The admissibility of offender profiling in courtroom: a review of legal issues and court opinions.

    PubMed

    Bosco, Dario; Zappalà, Angelo; Santtila, Pekka

    2010-01-01

    What is the future of Offender Profiling? Is it an important field of forensic science or is it only a glamorous art? After the trilogy "Daubert-Joiner-Kumho" and after the last version, in 2009, of the Federal Rules of Evidence (F.R.E.), the opinion of American Courts concerning the admissibility of scientific evidence has changed, and the questions above can now have new answers. The change is closely tied to the perceived difference between hard and soft sciences and, in this way, the new gatekeeping role of the Courts also concerns whether offender profiling can be regarded as scientific evidence and if offender profiling should be admitted in the Courtroom as scientific evidence. In this work we present a comprehensive review concerning the most important Court opinions in U.S.A, U.K., Canada and Australia, about reliability and admissibility of offender profiling, in its different forensic application, as scientific evidence, and we suggest how and when an expert witness in the field of offender profiling can, in the light of these opinions, be admitted in Court.

  14. 12 CFR 211.11 - Advisory opinions under Regulation K.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Advisory opinions under Regulation K. 211.11... INTERNATIONAL BANKING OPERATIONS (REGULATION K) International Operations of U.S. Banking Organizations § 211.11 Advisory opinions under Regulation K. (a) Request for advisory opinion. Any person may submit a request...

  15. 42 CFR 1008.59 - Range of the advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Range of the advisory opinion. 1008.59 Section 1008.59 Public Health OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL-HEALTH CARE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Scope and Effect of OIG Advisory Opinions § 1008.59 Range of...

  16. 42 CFR 1008.59 - Range of the advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Range of the advisory opinion. 1008.59 Section 1008.59 Public Health OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL-HEALTH CARE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Scope and Effect of OIG Advisory Opinions § 1008.59 Range of...

  17. 42 CFR 1008.59 - Range of the advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Range of the advisory opinion. 1008.59 Section 1008.59 Public Health OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL-HEALTH CARE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Scope and Effect of OIG Advisory Opinions § 1008.59 Range of...

  18. 42 CFR 1008.59 - Range of the advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Range of the advisory opinion. 1008.59 Section 1008.59 Public Health OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL-HEALTH CARE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Scope and Effect of OIG Advisory Opinions § 1008.59 Range of...

  19. 42 CFR 1008.59 - Range of the advisory opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Range of the advisory opinion. 1008.59 Section 1008.59 Public Health OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL-HEALTH CARE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Scope and Effect of OIG Advisory Opinions § 1008.59 Range of...

  20. 28 CFR 80.8 - Attorney General opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Attorney General opinion. 80.8 Section 80.8 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) FOREIGN CORRUPT PRACTICES ACT OPINION PROCEDURE § 80.8 Attorney General opinion. The Attorney General or his designee shall, within 30 days...