Science.gov

Sample records for agricultural climate resources

  1. Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Irrigated Agriculture in the Central Valley of California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winter, J.; Young, C. A.; Azarderakhsh, M.; Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.

    2013-12-01

    Agricultural productivity is strongly dependent on the availability of water, necessitating accurate projections of water resources, the allocation of water resources across competing sectors, and the effects of insufficient water resources on crops to assess the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity. To explore the interface of water and agriculture in California's Central Valley, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model was coupled to the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) water resources model, deployed over the region, and run using both historical and future climate scenarios. This coupling brings water supply constraints to DSSAT and sophisticated agricultural water use, management, and diagnostics to WEAP. A 30-year simulation of WEAP-DSSAT forced using a spatially interpolated observational dataset was run from 1980-2009. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Surface Resistance and Evapotranspiration (MOD16) and Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) data were used to evaluate WEAP-DSSAT evapotranspiration calculations. Overall WEAP-DSSAT reasonably captures the seasonal cycle of observed evapotranspiration, but some catchments contain significant biases. Future climate scenarios were constructed by adjusting the spatially interpolated observational dataset with North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program differences between future (2050-2069) and historical (1980-1999) regional climate model simulations of precipitation and temperature. Generally, within the Central Valley temperatures warm by approximately 2°C, precipitation remains constant, and crop water use efficiency increases. The overall impacts of future climate on irrigated agricultural yields varies across the Central Valley and is highly dependent on crop, water resources demand assumptions, and agricultural management.

  2. The challenge of climate change in Spain: Water resources, agriculture and land

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vargas-Amelin, Elisa; Pindado, Pablo

    2014-10-01

    Climate change effects are becoming evident worldwide, but some water scarce regions present higher vulnerability. Spain, located in the Mediterranean region, is expected for instance to be highly vulnerable given its unbalanced distribution between water resources availability and existing demands. This article presents an introduction to the main threats of climate change mainly on water resources, but it also assesses effects in interlinked areas such as agriculture, soil and land management. Contents focus on measures and initiatives promoted by the central government and address efforts to establish multi-sectoral coordinating bodies, specific adaptation plans and measures for the different sectors. The article highlights some political aspects, such as the complexity of involved competent authorities in water and land management, the need to strengthen public participation and the conflicts arising from the defence of regional interests. It also makes a link to current EU policies; summarises foreseeable problems derived from climate change effects, and provides some recommendations in the different areas covered.

  3. Applied Climate Education and Training for Agricultural and Natural Resource Management in India, Indonesia, Zimbabwe and Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    George, D. A.; Clewett, J. F.; Selvaraju, R.; Birch, C.

    2006-01-01

    In parts of the world, including many developing countries, climate variability impacts negatively on agricultural production and natural resource management. Workshops in applied climatology were held in Australia, India, Indonesia and Zimbabwe between 1999 and 2002 to provide farmers and agricultural and meteorological staff a better…

  4. Exploring the dynamics of agricultural climatic resource utilization of spring maize over the past 50 years in Northeast China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Junfang; Guo, Jianping; Mu, Jia; Xu, Yanhong

    Exploring the dynamics of the utilization of agricultural climatic resources (i.e., environmental factors that affect crop productivity such as light, temperature, and water) can provide a theoretical basis for modifying agricultural practices and distributions of agricultural production in the future. Northeast China is one of the major agricultural production areas in China and also an obvious region of climatic warming. We were motivated to analyze the utilization dynamics of agricultural climatic resource during spring maize cultivation from 1961 to 2010 in Northeast China. To understand these dynamics, we used the daily data from 101 meteorological stations in Northeast China between 1961 and 2010. The demands on agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China imposed by the cultivation of spring maize were combined and agricultural climatic suitability theory was applied. The growth period of spring maize was further detailedly divided into four stages: germination to emergence, emergence to jointing, jointing to tasseling, and tasseling to maturity. The average resource utilization index was established to evaluate the effects. Over the past five decades, Northeast China experienced increases in daily average temperature of 0.246 °C every decade during the growing season (May-September). At the same time, strong fluctuating decreases were observed in average total precipitation of 8.936 mm every decade and an average sunshine hour of 0.122 h every decade. Significant temporal and spatial changes occurred in K from 1961 to 2010. The K showed decreasing trends in Liaoning province and increasing trends in Jilin and especially in Heilongjiang province, which increased by 0.11. Spatial differences were visible in different periods, and the most obvious increase was found in the period 2001-2010. The areas with high values of K shifted northeastward over the past 50 years, indicating more efficient use of agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China.

  5. Climate change, agriculture and water resources in the Southwestern United States

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In February 2014 the USDA established regional climate hubs across the United States to assist farmers, ranchers and foresters in adapting to the effects of climate change. The Southwest (SW) region encompasses six states which provide highly diverse agricultural crops including cotton, stone fruit ...

  6. Climate change, agroclimatic resources and agroclimatic zoning of agriculture in Bulgaria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazandjiev, V.; Moteva, M.; Georgieva, V.

    2009-09-01

    The important factors for the agrarian output in Bulgaria are only thermal and water probability. From the two factors the component related to soil moisture is more limited. As well water and temperatures probabilities in the agrarian output are estimated trough sums of temperatures and rainfalls or by derivatives indicators (most frequently named as coefficients or indices). The heat conditions and the heat resources are specified by the continuousness of the vegetative period. Duration of vegetative season is limited for each type of plant, between the spring and autumn steady pass of air temperature across the biological minimum. For the agricultural crops in Bulgaria the three biological minimums: in 5°C are taken for wheat and barley, oat, pea, lentil and sunflower; 10°C for corn, haricot, and soybean and in 15°C for the cotton, vegetables and other spring cultures). The cold and warm period duration are mutually related characteristics. The first period define number of days with the snow fall and days with the snow cover, that are in the basis in the formation of soil moisture reserves after the spring snow melt. Definition of the regions with temperature stress conditions during vegetative season is one of the most important parameters of agroclimatic conditions. The values indicating for the limitations are one or more periods from at least 10 consecutive days with maximal air temperature over 35 °С. More from the agricultures, character for the moderate continental climatic zone are developed normally under temperatures 25-28°С. Temperatures over 28°C are ballast slowing the growth and destroying plants due to the heat tension. The component, limiting in greatest degree growth, development and formation of yields from the agricultural crops are the conditions of moisturizing, present trough atmospheric and soil moisture. The most apparent indicator is the year sum of the rains or their sum by the periods with the average daily temperatures of

  7. Modelling adaptation to climate change of Ecuadorian agriculture and associated water resources: uncertainties in coastal and highland cropping systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Bastidas, Wellington; Cóndor, Amparo; Villacís, Marcos; Calderón, Marco; Herrera, Mario; Zambrano, José Luis; Lizaso, Jon; Hernández, Carlos; Rodríguez, Alfredo; Capa-Morocho, Mirian

    2016-04-01

    Climate change threatens sustainability of farms and associated water resources in Ecuador. Although the last IPCC report (AR5) provides a general framework for adaptation, , impact assessment and especially adaptation analysis should be site-specific, taking into account both biophysical and social aspects. The objective of this study is to analyse the climate change impacts and to sustainable adaptations to optimize the crop yield. Furthermore is also aimed to weave agronomical and hydrometeorological aspects, to improve the modelling of the coastal ("costa") and highland ("sierra") cropping systems in Ecuador, from the agricultural production and water resources points of view. The final aim is to support decision makers, at national and local institutions, for technological implementation of structural adaptation strategies, and to support farmers for their autonomous adaptation actions to cope with the climate change impacts and that allow equal access to resources and appropriate technologies. . A diagnosis of the current situation in terms of data availability and reliability was previously done, and the main sources of uncertainty for agricultural projections have been identified: weather data, especially precipitation projections, soil data below the upper 30 cm, and equivalent experimental protocol for ecophysiological crop field measurements. For reducing these uncertainties, several methodologies are being discussed. This study was funded by PROMETEO program from Ecuador through SENESCYT (M. Ruiz-Ramos contract), and by the project COOP-XV-25 funded by Universidad Politécnica de Madrid.

  8. Climate change and its effect on agriculture, water resources and human health sectors in Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szwed, M.; Karg, G.; Pińskwar, I.; Radziejewski, M.; Graczyk, D.; Kedziora, A.; Kundzewicz, Z. W.

    2010-08-01

    Multi-model ensemble climate projections in the ENSEMBLES Project of the EU allowed the authors to quantify selected extreme-weather indices for Poland, of importance to climate impacts on systems and sectors. Among indices were: number of days in a year with high value of the heat index; with high maximum and minimum temperatures; length of vegetation period; and number of consecutive dry days. Agricultural, hydrological, and human health indices were applied to evaluate the changing risk of weather extremes in Poland in three sectors. To achieve this, model-based simulations were compared for two time horizons, a century apart, i.e., 1961-1990 and 2061-2090. Climate changes, and in particular increases in temperature and changes in rainfall, have strong impacts on agriculture via weather extremes - droughts and heat waves. The crop yield depends particularly on water availability in the plant development phase. To estimate the changes in present and future yield of two crops important for Polish agriculture i.e., potatoes and wheat, some simple empirical models were used. For these crops, decrease of yield is projected for most of the country, with national means of yield change being: -2.175 t/ha for potatoes and -0.539 t/ha for wheat. Already now, in most of Poland, evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation during summer, hence the water storage (in surface water bodies, soil and ground) decreases. Summer precipitation deficit is projected to increase considerably in the future. The additional water supplies (above precipitation) needed to use the agro-potential of the environment would increase by half. Analysis of water balance components (now and in the projected future) can corroborate such conclusions. As regards climate and health, a composite index, proposed in this paper, is a product of the number of senior discomfort days and the number of seniors (aged 65+). The value of this index is projected to increase over 8-fold during 100 years. This is an

  9. Climate-smart agriculture for food security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lipper, Leslie; Thornton, Philip; Campbell, Bruce M.; Baedeker, Tobias; Braimoh, Ademola; Bwalya, Martin; Caron, Patrick; Cattaneo, Andrea; Garrity, Dennis; Henry, Kevin; Hottle, Ryan; Jackson, Louise; Jarvis, Andrew; Kossam, Fred; Mann, Wendy; McCarthy, Nancy; Meybeck, Alexandre; Neufeldt, Henry; Remington, Tom; Sen, Pham Thi; Sessa, Reuben; Shula, Reynolds; Tibu, Austin; Torquebiau, Emmanuel F.

    2014-12-01

    Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach for transforming and reorienting agricultural systems to support food security under the new realities of climate change. Widespread changes in rainfall and temperature patterns threaten agricultural production and increase the vulnerability of people dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, which includes most of the world's poor. Climate change disrupts food markets, posing population-wide risks to food supply. Threats can be reduced by increasing the adaptive capacity of farmers as well as increasing resilience and resource use efficiency in agricultural production systems. CSA promotes coordinated actions by farmers, researchers, private sector, civil society and policymakers towards climate-resilient pathways through four main action areas: (1) building evidence; (2) increasing local institutional effectiveness; (3) fostering coherence between climate and agricultural policies; and (4) linking climate and agricultural financing. CSA differs from 'business-as-usual' approaches by emphasizing the capacity to implement flexible, context-specific solutions, supported by innovative policy and financing actions.

  10. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Howden, S. Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N.; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists. PMID:18077402

  11. Agriculture, forestry, range resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Macdonald, R. B.

    1974-01-01

    The necessary elements to perform global inventories of agriculture, forestry, and range resources are being brought together through the use of satellites, sensors, computers, mathematics, and phenomenology. Results of ERTS-1 applications in these areas, as well as soil mapping, are described.

  12. Agriculture and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Abelson, P.H.

    1992-07-03

    How will increases in levels of CO{sub 2} and changes in temperature affect food production A recently issued report analyzes prospects for US agriculture 1990 to 2030. The report, prepared by a distinguished Task Force, first projects the evolution of agriculture assuming increased levels of CO{sub 2} but no climate change. Then it deals with effects of climate change, followed by a discussion of how greenhouse emissions might be diminished by agriculture. Economic and policy matters are also covered. How the climate would respond to more greenhouse gases is uncertain. If temperatures were higher, there would be more evaporation and more precipitation. Where would the rain fall That is a good question. Weather in a particular locality is not determined by global averages. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s could be repeated at its former site or located in another region such as the present Corn Belt. But depending on the realities at a given place, farmers have demonstrated great flexibility in choosing what they may grow. Their flexibility has been increased by the numerous varieties of seeds of major crops that are now available, each having different characteristics such as drought resistance and temperature tolerance. In past, agriculture has contributed about 5% of US greenhouse gases. Two large components have involved emissions of CO{sub 2} from farm machinery and from oxidation of organic matter in soil due to tillage. Use of diesel fuel and more efficient machinery has reduced emissions from that source by 40%. In some areas changed tillage practices are now responsible for returning carbon to the soil. The report identifies an important potential for diminishing net US emissions of CO{sub 2} by growth and utilization of biomass. Large areas are already available that could be devoted to energy crops.

  13. Global Agricultural Land Resources – A High Resolution Suitability Evaluation and Its Perspectives until 2100 under Climate Change Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Zabel, Florian; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Mauser, Wolfram

    2014-01-01

    Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981–2010), considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071–2100 with 1981–2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia). Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases. PMID:25229634

  14. Progress toward filling the weather and climate forecast needs of agricultural and natural resource management

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Several recent developments prompted a review of the current availability of free and official weather, climate, and hydroclimate forecasts for rural locations in the U.S., compared to the situation a decade ago. These developments included a surge in interest among research and operational meteoro...

  15. Climatic Fluctuations and the Diffusion of Agriculture*

    PubMed Central

    Ashraf, Quamrul; Michalopoulos, Stelios

    2015-01-01

    This research examines the climatic origins of the diffusion of Neolithic agriculture across countries and archaeological sites. The theory suggests that a foraging society’s history of climatic shocks shaped the timing of its adoption of farming. Specifically, as long as climatic disturbances did not lead to a collapse of the underlying resource base, the rate at which hunter-gatherers were climatically propelled to experiment with their habitats determined the accumulation of tacit knowledge complementary to farming. Consistent with the proposed hypothesis, the empirical investigation demonstrates that, conditional on biogeographic endowments, climatic volatility has a hump-shaped effect on the timing of the adoption of agriculture. PMID:27019534

  16. Downscaled climate change impacts on agricultural water resources in Puerto Rico

    SciTech Connect

    Harmsen, E.W.; Miller, N.L.; Schlegel, N.J.; Gonzalez, J.E.

    2009-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to estimate reference evapotranspiration (ET{sub o}), rainfall deficit (rainfall - ET{sub o}) and relative crop yield reduction for a generic crop under climate change conditions for three locations in Puerto Rico: Adjuntas, Mayaguez, and Lajas. Reference evapotranspiration is estimated by the Penman-Monteith method. Rainfall and temperature data were statistically downscaled and evaluated using the DOE/NCAR PCM global circulation model projections for the B1 (low), A2 (mid-high) and A1fi (high) emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Relative crop yield reductions were estimated from a function dependent water stress factor, which is a function of soil moisture content. Average soil moisture content for the three locations was determined by means of a simple water balance approach. Results from the analysis indicate that the rainy season will become wetter and the dry season will become drier. The 20-year mean 1990-2010 September rainfall excess (i.e., rainfall - ET{sub o} > 0) increased for all scenarios and locations from 149.8 to 356.4 mm for 2080-2100. Similarly, the 20-year average February rainfall deficit (i.e., rainfall - ET{sub o} < 0) decreased from a -26.1 mm for 1990-2010 to -72.1 mm for the year 2080-2100. The results suggest that additional water could be saved during the wet months to offset increased irrigation requirements during the dry months. Relative crop yield reduction did not change significantly under the B1 projected emissions scenario, but increased by approximately 20% during the summer months under the A1fi emissions scenario. Components of the annual water balance for the three climate change scenarios are rainfall, evapotranspiration (adjusted for soil moisture), surface runoff, aquifer recharge and change in soil moisture storage. Under the A1fi scenario, for all locations, annual evapotranspiration decreased owing to lower soil moisture

  17. Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Yields and Water Resources in the Maumee River Watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagelkirk, R. L.; Kendall, A. D.; Basso, B.; Hyndman, D. W.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change will likely have considerable effects on agriculture in the Midwestern United States. Under current climate projections, end-of-century temperatures rise by approximately 4 C, while precipitation stays relatively unchanged despite a potential increase in heavy rainfall events. These trends have already been observed over the last century: rising temperatures have extended the growing season two days per decade and heavy rainfall events have become twice as common. In an effort to understand the likely effects of climate change on agriculture, maize and soybean yields in the Maumee River Watershed were simulated using the Systems Approach to Land Use Sustainability (SALUS) crop model. SALUS calculates daily crop growth in response to changing climate, soil, and management conditions. We test the hypotheses that 1) despite any positive effects of CO2 fertilization and allowing for higher yielding varieties, longer and warmer growing seasons will lead to excessive water- and heat-stress, lowering yields under current management practices, and 2) that double-cropping maize and soybeans successively in the same season to offset these losses may become feasible if sufficient late-season soil moisture is made available. Outputs of daily Leaf Area Index (LAI) and root mass from a range of SALUS models are then distributed spatially to drive regional hydrologic simulations using the Integrated Landscape Hydrology Model (ILHM). These coupled simulations demonstrate the response of streamflow and groundwater levels to different management strategies.

  18. Modules in Agricultural Education for Agricultural Resources.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    New York State Education Dept., Albany. Bureau of Occupational and Career Curriculum Development.

    Each of the 31 curriculum modules in this packet for agricultural resources instruction contains a brief description of the module content, a list of the major division or units, the overall objective, objectives by units, content outline and suggested teaching methods, student application activities, and evaluation procedures. A list of resource…

  19. Agriculture, Forestry and Rangeland Resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Poulton, C. E.

    1973-01-01

    The application of ERTS-1 imagery for providing information on agriculture, forestry, and rangeland resources is described. The use of the ERTS-1 system for stratification and sampling estimates of relatively small areas is discussed. Examples of maps to improve resource definition for land use planning, resource allocation, and resource development are provided. Inventories of various crops, as determined by photointerpretation of ERTS imagery are submitted in tabular form.

  20. Drought, Climate Change and Potential Agricultural Productivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheffield, J.; Herrera-Estrada, J. E.; Caylor, K. K.; Wood, E. F.

    2011-12-01

    Drought is a major factor in agricultural productivity, especially in developing regions where the capacity for water resources management is limited and climate variability ensures that drought is recurrent and problematic. Recent events in East Africa are testament to this, where drought conditions that have slowly developed over multiple years have contributed to reduced productivity and ultimately food crises and famine. Prospects for the future are not promising given ongoing problems of dwindling water supplies from non-renewable sources and the potential for increased water scarcity and increased drought with climate change. This is set against the expected increase in population by over 2 billion people by 2050 and rise in food demand, coupled with changes in demographics that affect food choices and increases in non-food agriculture. In this talk we discuss the global variability of drought over the 20th century and recent years, and the projected changes over the 21st century, and how this translates into changes in potential agricultural productivity. Drought is quantified using land surface hydrological models driven by a hybrid reanalysis-observational meteorological forcing dataset. Drought is defined in terms of anomalies of hydroclimatic variables, in particular precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture, and we calculate changes in various drought characteristics. Potential agricultural productivity is derived from the balance of precipitation to crop water demand, where demand is based on potential evaporation and crop coefficients for a range of staple crops. Some regional examples are shown of historic variations in drought and potential productivity, and the estimated water deficit for various crops. The multitude of events over the past decade, including heat waves in Europe, fires in Russia, long-term drought in northern China, southeast Australia, the Western US and a series of droughts in the Amazon and Argentina, hint at the influence of

  1. Climate change - Agricultural land use - Food security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagy, János; Széles, Adrienn

    2015-04-01

    change contributes to the proliferation of the pests of agricultural produces, the spreading of diseases and the development of new pathogens, while it could also increase the food risk caused by bacterial infection during the food chain phase between the producer and the consumer. Climate change has an impact on the world's food prices, especially that of cereals. The food production of the world needs to be doubled in order to cover the need of the population by 2050, especially if it rises above nine billion. As a result of the increase of population, there is an increased demand for agricultural products and it also necessitates the more efficient use of agricultural lands. As a consequence of increasing food prices, there is a risk of increased starvation and food consumption may decrease (especially in developing countries), while the health care inequality is expected to grow. Food security is one of the most important elements of adapting to global climate change. For this reason, it is extremely important to breed new biological resources, as well as to introduce production systems which facilitate the adaptation to changed circumstances.

  2. Global climate change and US agriculture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, Richard M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Peart, Robert M.; Ritchie, Joe T.; Mccarl, Bruce A.

    1990-01-01

    Agricultural productivity is expected to be sensitive to global climate change. Models from atmospheric science, plant science, and agricultural economics are linked to explore this sensitivity. Although the results depend on the severity of climate change and the compensating effects of carbon dioxide on crop yields, the simulation suggests that irrigated acreage will expand and regional patterns of U.S. agriculture will shift. The impact of the U.S. economy strongly depends on which climate model is used.

  3. Global Climate Change and Agriculture

    SciTech Connect

    Izaurralde, Roberto C.

    2009-01-01

    The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released in 2007 significantly increased our confidence about the role that humans play in forcing climate change. There is now a high degree of confidence that the (a) current atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) far exceed those of the pre-industrial era, (b) global increases in CO2 arise mainly from fossil fuel use and land use change while those of CH4 and N2O originate primarily from agricultural activities, and (c) the net effect of human activities since 1750 has led to a warming of the lower layers of the atmosphere, with an increased radiative forcing of 1.6 W m-2. Depending on the scenario of human population growth and global development, mean global temperatures could rise between 1.8 and 4.0 °C by the end of the 21st century.

  4. Climate Change and Agriculture: Effects and Adaptation

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This document is a synthesis of science literature on the effects of climate change on agriculture and issues associated with agricultural adaptation to climate change. Information is presented on how long-term changes in air temperatures, precipitation, and atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide wi...

  5. Climate policy implications for agricultural water demand

    SciTech Connect

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Wise, Marshall A.; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2013-03-01

    Energy, water and land are scarce resources, critical to humans. Developments in each affect the availability and cost of the others, and consequently human prosperity. Measures to limit greenhouse gas concentrations will inevitably exact dramatic changes on energy and land systems and in turn alter the character, magnitude and geographic distribution of human claims on water resources. We employ the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model to explore the interactions of energy, land and water systems in the context of alternative policies to limit climate change to three alternative levels: 2.5 Wm-2 (445 ppm CO2-e), 3.5 Wm-2 (535 ppm CO2-e) and 4.5 Wm-2 (645 ppm CO2-e). We explore the effects of two alternative land-use emissions mitigation policy options—one which taxes terrestrial carbon emissions equally with fossil fuel and industrial emissions, and an alternative which only taxes fossil fuel and industrial emissions but places no penalty on land-use change emissions. We find that increasing populations and economic growth could be anticipated to almost triple demand for water for agricultural systems across the century even in the absence of climate policy. In general policies to mitigate climate change increase agricultural demands for water still further, though the largest changes occur in the second half of the century, under both policy regimes. The two policies examined profoundly affected both the sources and magnitudes of the increase in irrigation water demands. The largest increases in agricultural irrigation water demand occurred in scenarios where only fossil fuel emissions were priced (but not land-use change emission) and were primarily driven by rapid expansion in bioenergy production. In these scenarios water demands were large relative to present-day total available water, calling into question whether it would be physically possible to produce the associated biomass energy. We explored the potential of improved

  6. Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on Central American Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winter, J. M.; Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.

    2011-12-01

    Agriculture is a vital component of Central America's economy. Poor crop yields and harvest reliability can produce food insecurity, malnutrition, and conflict. Regional climate models (RCMs) and agricultural models have the potential to greatly enhance the efficiency of Central American agriculture and water resources management under both current and future climates. A series of numerical experiments was conducted using Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to evaluate the ability of RCMs to reproduce the current climate of Central America and assess changes in temperature and precipitation under multiple future climate scenarios. Control simulations were thoroughly compared to a variety of observational datasets, including local weather station data, gridded meteorological data, and high-resolution satellite-based precipitation products. Future climate simulations were analyzed for both mean shifts in climate and changes in climate variability, including extreme events (droughts, heat waves, floods). To explore the impacts of changing climate on maize, bean, and rice yields in Central America, RCM output was used to force the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Model (DSSAT). These results were synthesized to create climate change impacts predictions for Central American agriculture that explicitly account for evolving distributions of precipitation and temperature extremes.

  7. Climate change and agriculture in developing countries

    SciTech Connect

    Antle, J.M.

    1995-08-01

    Most analysts agree that the poorest countries` agricultures are likely to be the most vulnerable to-and least capable of adapting to-climate change or other environmental disruptions. Research has only recently begun to assess what the likely impacts of climate change on developing countries` agricultures may be, how these agricultures might adapt to climate change, and how policies might be designed to facilitate adaptation. This paper begins with a discussion of what researchers currently believe the impacts of climate change could be on developing country agriculture, principally tropical agriculture. Climate changes are expected to occur from thirty to more than one hundred years in the future. These time horizons mean that predictions of the key factors determining impacts and adaptation-population, income, institutions, and technology-are probably as uncertain as predictions of climate change itself. Rates of productivity growth and technological adaptation will be critical to future food supplies, with or without climate change. Continuation of the trend of the past forty years could make so abundant that climate change effects would be inconsequential, but lower rates of growth could result in population growth outstripping food supplies. The second section of this paper addresses the critical issue of predicting the long-term trend in productivity by building on the substantial knowledge we have about the economic factors determining agricultural innovation and adaptation. Considering the time horizons and uncertainties involved in climate change, the wise policy strategy is to pursue investments that are economically justified, whether or not climate change occurs. A better understanding of managed ecosystems would improve our understanding of agricultural sustainability as well as climate change impacts and adaptation. The third section of this paper outlines an economic approach to modeling managed ecosystems. 21 refs.

  8. Anticipating impacts of climate change on organic agriculture

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Conventional and organic agriculture are inextricably linked to climate and will be impacted by climate change. Organic agriculture, unlike conventional agriculture, encompasses heterogeneous agricultural management methods and practices owing to its multiple origins around the world. Although it re...

  9. Assessing the Agricultural Vulnerability for India under Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Tarul; Vardhan Murari, Harsha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Singh, Jitendra

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change has proven to show majorly negative impacts for the far future. These negative impacts adversely affect almost all the fields including agriculture, water resources, tourism, and marine ecosystem. Among these, the effects on agriculture are considered to be of prime importance since its regional impacts can directly affect the global food security. Under such lines, it becomes essential to understand how climate change directs agricultural production for a region along with its vulnerability. In India, rice and wheat are considered as major staple diet and hence understanding its production loss/gain due to regional vulnerability to climate change becomes necessary. Here, an attempt has been made to understand the agricultural vulnerability for rice and wheat, considering yield as a function of temperature and precipitation during growing period. In order to accomplish this objective, the ratio of actual to potential evapo-transpiration has been considered which serves as a reliable indicator; with more this ratio towards unity, less vulnerable will be the region. The current objective needs an integration of climatic, hydrological and agricultural parameters; that can be achieved by simulating a climate data driven hydrologic (Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC) model and a crop (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT) model. The proposed framework is an attempt to derive a crop vulnerability map that can facilitate in strategizing adaption practices which can reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in future.

  10. Climate Mitigation Versus Agriculture in the Tropics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McAfee, K.

    2011-12-01

    Significant new drivers of land-use change in the tropics are market-based strategies for climate-change mitigation and biodiversity conservation. These strategies are based on the putative monetary values of new commodities: genetic resources and ecosystem services, especially carbon sequestration services by forests. Payments for Ecosystem Services projects are expanding in Latin America, Asia, and some parts of Africa, promising a 'triple-win' for nature, the private sector, and the poor. Analysis of Mexico's national PES program and review of a growing body of PES case studies, however, reveal a pattern of conflict between poverty alleviation and other social goals, on the one hand, and the market-efficiency criteria that frame many PES projects, on the other hand. This poses a warning for more ambitious, global schemes based on similar principles, such as Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD). Additionally, transnational trade in carbon offsets, seen as a source of finance for PES and for REDD, puts climate policy on a collision course with agriculture, particularly given the context of closing land frontiers and international 'land-grabbing' claims on land for food-export plantations. Because market-based PES and REDD tend to target small- and medium-scale farmers, they are likely to constrain agriculture for domestic needs in regions where food security is already weak. Land-use governance based on conservation-by-commercialization can be compared to alternative approaches that link greening, food production, and social equity in a more integrated way, by combining scientific and local ecological and agroecological knowledge with strategies for rural revitalization and development.

  11. Instructional Resources in Agricultural Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drawbaugh, Charles C.

    1971-01-01

    The question raised from the study is this. "Why not give consideration to the establishment of Regional Instructional Resource Centers with staff to promote and coordinate productional activities, to manage reproductional processes, and to advertise and distribute instructional resources more widely and, thereby, elevate this important…

  12. Agricultural Resources: Program Planning Guide: Volume 6.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    German, Carl; And Others

    The program planning guide for agricultural resources was written to assist Applied Biological and Agricultural Occupations (ABAO) teachers in enriching existing programs and/or to provide the basis for expansion of offerings to include additional materials for the cluster areas of forests, recreation, soil, wildlife, and other agricultural…

  13. Climate Impacts on Irrigated Agriculture in California's Central Valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winter, J.; Young, C. A.; Mehta, V. K.; Davitt, A. W. D.; Azarderakhsh, M.; Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.

    2015-12-01

    Irrigated farms account for 80%-90% of consumptive water use in the United States and $118.5 billion of US agricultural production. Despite the vast water use and high yields of irrigated croplands, agriculture is typically the lowest value sector in a water resources system, and thus the first to face reductions when water becomes scarce. A major challenge for hydrologic and agricultural communities is assessing the effects of climate change on the sustainability of regional water resources and irrigated agriculture. To explore the interface of water and agriculture in California's Central Valley, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model was coupled to the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) water resources model, deployed over the service area of Yolo County Flood Control and Water Conservation District, and forced using both historical and future climate scenarios. This coupling brings water supply constraints to DSSAT and sophisticated agricultural water use, management, and diagnostics to WEAP. Thirty year historical (1980-2009) simulations of WEAP-DSSAT for corn, wheat, and rice were run using a spatially interpolated observational dataset, and contrasted with future simulations using climate scenarios developed by adjusting the spatially interpolated observational dataset with North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program differences between future (2050-2069) and historical (1980-1999) regional climate model simulations of precipitation and temperature. Generally, within the Central Valley temperatures warm by approximately 2°C, precipitation remains constant, and crop water use efficiency increases. On average corn yields decrease, wheat yields increase, and rice yields remain unchanged. Potential adaptations, as well as implications for groundwater pumping, irrigation extent and method, and land use change including fallowing and switching crops, are examined.

  14. Reclaimed water as a main resource to enhance the adaptive capacity to climate change in semi-arid Mediterranean agricultural areas using Earth Observation products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavia Rico, Ana; Lopez-Baeza, Ernesto; Matieu, Pierre-Philippe; Hernandez Sancho, Francesc; Loarte, Edwin

    Lack of water is being a big problem in semi-arid areas to make agricultural profits. Most of Mediterranean countries like Spain, Italy, Greece or Cyprus and other countries like Morocco, the Arab United Emirates, South-American countries or China are starting to reuse wastewater as adaptation to climate change water scarcity. Drought areas are nowadays increasing, thus making fertile areas unproductive. For this reason, the European trend is to work on reusing wastewater as a solution to water scarcity in agriculture. Moreover, since population is growing fast, wastewater production is increasing as well as drinkable water demand, thus making reclaimed water as the water guarantee for irrigation and better agricultural management. This work represents a preliminary initiative to check, analyse and monitor the land by using remote sensing techniques to identify and determine the potential lands that used to be productive in the past, are now abandoned, and we want to recuperate to obtain socio-economic benefits. On top of this, this initiative will clearly enhance the adaption capacity of rural/agricultural lands to climate change. Alternatively to reclaimed water, greenhouses, desalination plants or transboarding water do not really eliminate the problem but only offer a temporary solution, make spending plenty of money and always provoking irreversible damages to the environment. The pilot area to first develop this research is the Valencia and Murcia Autonomous Communities located in the Spanish Mediterranean Coastline. An added value of this work will be to develop a methodology transferable to other potential countries with similar climatic characteristics and difficulties for irrigation, by using remote sensing methods and techniques. The remote sensing products obtained provide full information about the current state of the potential lands to grow crops. Potential areas are then being selected to carry out a socio-economic analysis leading to: (i

  15. Uses of the climatic information in agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neri, C.; Magaña, V.

    2009-04-01

    Hydrometeorological extreme events have serious impacts on agricultural activities. The variation from a year to year of the annual accumulated precipitation can be substantial and have a large impact on agriculture. In Mexico it is know that a strong relation between the El Niño/Oscillation of Sur (ENOS) and annual precipitation exists. This relationship is one reason why climate information is a fundamental element that must be considered when making decisions and planning activities each agricultural cycle. Through the analysis of climate variability and crop vulnerability the risk of crop loss under adverse climate can be considered. If this risk is considered in agricultural planning, the work strategies will vary. Using calculations of the probability of rain occurrence, the vulnerability to hydrometerological extreme events can be considered, thus determining the probability of crop destruction due to rain deficit. This information can be used by farmers or agricultural insurance agencies to determine whether or not there will be sufficient rainfall for an agricultural cycle and what crops to cultivate. This type of infromation can be obtained from seasonal climate prognoses. At present we know that the prognosis schemes work better when conditions appear La Niña or El Niño.

  16. Adapting agriculture to climate change: a review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin; Liu, De Li; Macadam, Ian; Kelly, Georgina

    2013-07-01

    The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to future climate changes and climate variability, including increases in the incidence of extreme climate events. Changes in temperature and precipitation will result in changes in land and water regimes that will subsequently affect agricultural productivity. Given the gradual change of climate in the past, historically, farmers have adapted in an autonomous manner. However, with large and discrete climate change anticipated by the end of this century, planned and transformational changes will be needed. In light of these, the focus of this review is on farm-level and farmers responses to the challenges of climate change both spatially and over time. In this review of adapting agriculture to climate change, the nature, extent, and causes of climate change are analyzed and assessed. These provide the context for adapting agriculture to climate change. The review identifies the binding constraints to adaptation at the farm level. Four major priority areas are identified to relax these constraints, where new initiatives would be required, i.e., information generation and dissemination to enhance farm-level awareness, research and development (R&D) in agricultural technology, policy formulation that facilitates appropriate adaptation at the farm level, and strengthening partnerships among the relevant stakeholders. Forging partnerships among R&D providers, policy makers, extension agencies, and farmers would be at the heart of transformational adaptation to climate change at the farm level. In effecting this transformational change, sustained efforts would be needed for the attendant requirements of climate and weather forecasting and innovation, farmer's training, and further research to improve the quality of information, invention, and application in agriculture. The investment required for these would be highly significant. The review suggests a sequenced approach through grouping research initiatives into short

  17. Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Adoption by Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garbrecht, Jurgen; Meinke, Holger; Sivakumar, Mannava V. K.; Motha, Raymond P.; Salinger, Michael J.

    2005-06-01

    Recent advances in atmospheric and ocean sciences and a better understanding of the global climate have led to skillful climate forecasts at seasonal to interannual timescales, even in midlatitudes. These scientific advances and forecasting capabilities have opened the door to practical applications that benefit society. The benefits include the reduction of weather/climate related risks and vulnerability, increased economic opportunities, enhanced food security, mitigation of adverse climate impacts, protection of environmental quality, and so forth. Agriculture in particular can benefit substantially from accurate long-lead seasonal climate forecasts. Indeed, agricultural production very much depends on weather, climate, and water availability, and unexpected departures from anticipated climate conditions can thwart the best laid management plans. Timely climate forecasts offer means to reduce losses in drought years, increase profitability in good years, deal more effectively with climate variability, and choose from targeted risk-management strategies. In addition to benefiting farmers, forecasts can also help marketing systems and downstream users prepare for anticipated production outcomes and associated consequences.

  18. Climate and offshore energy resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Twitchell, P. F.

    1980-12-01

    A conference discussed the relationship of climate to the world's offshore energy resources. The conference focused upon such areas as the impact of oil resources upon the economies of developed and developing countries, the importance of providing climatic data in sufficient time to meet users' needs, and the hazards and financial burdens associated with the development of offshore oil reserves. One of the important achievements of the confidence was the establishment of better communications between the users of environmental data and those charged with producing predictions.

  19. World agriculture and climate change: Current modeling issues

    SciTech Connect

    Darwin, R.

    1996-12-31

    Recent studies suggest that although global increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns during the next century will affect world agriculture, farmer adaptations are likely to prevent climate change from jeopardizing world food production. The costs and benefits of global climate change, however, are not equally distributed around the world. Agricultural production may increase in high latitude and alpine areas, but decrease in tropical and some other areas. Also, land use changes that accompany climate-induced shifts in cropland and permanent pasture are likely to raise additional social and environmental issues. Despite these advances, some important aspects of climate change have not been adequately simulated in global models. These include the effects that climate-induced changes in water resources are likely to have on agricultural production, the well-documented beneficial effects of higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide on plant growth and water use, and the cooling effects of tropospheric emissions of sulfur dioxide. In addition, past research generally relied on equilibrium climates based on a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Now, however, results from transient climate change experiments are available.

  20. Gaps in agricultural climate adaptation research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, Debra

    2016-05-01

    The value of the social sciences to climate change research is well recognized, but notable gaps remain in the literature on adaptation in agriculture. Contributions focus on farmer behaviour, with important research regarding gender, social networks and institutions remaining under-represented.

  1. Climate and Agriculture: Challenges for Efficient Production

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate has always been and will continue to be an important factor in agricultural production. Evidence of this is apparent when looking at where plants or animals are distributed around the world and the variation among years in terms of grain, forage, vegetable, and fruit production. The recent r...

  2. African agriculture especially vulnerable to warming climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wendel, JoAnna

    2014-09-01

    Malnourishment across Africa could jump 40% by 2050 due to climate change, according to the Africa Agriculture Status Report 2014 (AASR), released on 2 September. With temperatures predicted to rise 1.5°C-2.5°C by midcentury, African smallholder farms, which are generally run by one family, are more vulnerable than ever, the report finds.

  3. Climate change, water rights, and agriculture: A case study in Idaho

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2014-05-01

    Water supply is important to agriculture and other consumptive uses in the arid and semiarid climate zones, but it has become increasingly uncertain under a changing climate. More important, how agricultural output will be affected may depend on how water resources are allocated based on the dominant sharing rule, according to Xu et al., who conducted a case study in Idaho.

  4. Climate and Cultural Factors in the Origins of Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hole, F.

    2002-05-01

    Agriculture began in the eastern Mediterranean region of Southwest Asia at the end of the Younger Dryas and rapidly spread north and eastward during the Climatic Optimum. According to pollen records, during the Late Glacial, large seeded cereals and legumes persisted only in sheltered niches, but began to spread with subsequent warming and the establishment of a Mediterranean climatic regime. The Younger Dryas reversed this process for 1000 years, followed abruptly by the Climatic Optimum that favored the annual species. At the time of the Late Glacial humans lived by hunting and foraging, but became increasingly focused on plant resources during the Bolling-Allerod interstadial. The Younger Dryas was a severe shock that greatly reduced plant and human populations once again to sheltered locales. The first agriculture people tending and then extending stands of wild cereals occurred at this time. When the intensely seasonal mediterranean climate emerged abruptly after the YD, people rapidly colonized virgin arable lands and established permanent villages. I discuss: 1) the criteria for distinguishing between wild and domestic plants; 2) the archaeological evidence for the first domesticates in the Near East; 3) cultural innovations that allowed agriculture, and 4) factors that may have induced people to adopt agriculture.

  5. Agricultural and forest resource surveys from space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffer, R. M.

    1973-01-01

    An overview is presented on the use of spaceborne remote sensors as aid to agriculture and forestry for soil mapping, crop yield predictions, acreage determinations, damage assessment, and numerous other benefits. Some results obtained by ERTS 1 are discussed in terms of the significance of information derived and the potential use of these data for better management of our natural resources.

  6. Early Agriculture: Land Clearance and Climate Effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruddiman, W. F.

    2013-12-01

    In the 2003 AGU Emiliani Lecture, I proposed the 'early anthropogenic hypothesis' --the idea that major anthropogenic effects on greenhouse gases and climate occurred thousands of years before the industrial era. In the decade since then, several dozen published papers have argued its pros and cons. In the 2013 Tyndall History of Global Change Lecture I will update where matters now stand. I will show figures from the 2003 Climate Change paper that laid out the initial hypothesis, and then update subsequent evidence from ice-core drilling, archeology, and land-use histories. The primary claims in the 2003 hypothesis were these: (1) the CH4 rise since 5000 years ago is anthropogenic; (2) the CO2 rise since 7000 years ago is also anthropogenic; (3) the amount of carbon emitted from preindustrial deforestation was roughly twice the amount released during the industrial era; (4) global temperature would have been cooler by about 0.8oC by the start of the industrial era if agricultural CO2 and CH4 emissions had not occurred; (5) early anthropogenic warming prevented the inception of new ice sheets at high northern latitudes; and (6) pandemics and other population catastrophes during the last 2000 years caused CO2 decreases lasting decades to centuries. The new evidence shows that these claims have held up well. The late-Holocene CO2 and CH4 rises are anomalous compared to average gas trends during previous interglaciations of the last 800,000 years. Land-use models based on historical data simulate pre-industrial CO2 carbon releases more than twice the industrial amounts. Archeological estimates of CH4 emissions from expanding rice irrigation account for much of the late Holocene CH4 rise, even without including livestock emissions or biomass burning. Model simulations show that the large pre-industrial greenhouse-gas emissions indicated by these historical and archeological estimates would have warmed global climate by more than 1oC and prevented northern glacial

  7. Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Jordan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer

    2015-04-01

    Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Jordan. In particular, the combined effects of climate change and water scarcity threaten to affect food and water resources that are critical for livelihoods in Jordan. This is especially true for those communities who live in the dryland area in the country and who rely wholly on rain-fed agriculture. The exact nature and extent of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation distribution pattern remain uncertain and it is the poor and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to climate change adverse effects. A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Jordan was conducted in 2014. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the most vulnerable groups where rainfed and irrigated agriculture is practiced. Also, the study focused on quantifying the impacts on agricultural productivity in response to climate change. This will help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable communities in Jordan. Also, it will provide them with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The data used includes; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Those pathways were used for climate modeling. A decision support system (DSSAT) for agricultural production was used to assess the impact of climate changes on agricultural production. This approach was used for the Identification of climate change risk and their impacts on Agriculture. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of farmers and crops to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their

  8. Managing agricultural greenhouse gases: Coordinated agricultural research through GRACEnet to address our changing climate

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Global climate change presents numerous challenges to agriculture. Concurrent efforts to mitigate agricultural contributions to climate change while adapting to its projected consequences will be essential to ensure long-term sustainability and food security. To facilitate successful responses to ...

  9. A Professional Development Climate Course for Sustainable Agriculture in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    George, David; Clewett, Jeff; Birch, Colin; Wright, Anthony; Allen, Wendy

    2009-01-01

    There are few professional development courses in Australia for the rural sector concerned with climate variability, climate change and sustainable agriculture. The lack of educators with a sound technical background in climate science and its applications in agriculture prevents the delivery of courses either stand-alone or embedded in other…

  10. Can conservation trump impacts of climate change and extremes on soil erosion in agricultural landscapes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Preservation of top soil is critical for the long term sustainability of agricultural productivity, food security, and biodiversity. However, today’s growing population and increasing demand for food and fiber is stressing the agricultural soil and water resources. Climate change imposes additional ...

  11. How will Climate Change Affect Agriculture over the Next 10-30 Years

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agriculture is dependent upon the climate resources of temperature, sunlight, precipitation, and carbon dioxide. Efficient production depends upon optimum conditions of temperature and water supply and changes in these climatic variables will affect plant and animal systems over the next 10- 30 year...

  12. Climate change and global agriculture: Recent findings and issues

    SciTech Connect

    Reilly, J.

    1995-08-01

    This paper (a) reviews existing findings on the global impacts of climate change on agriculture, (b) identifies limitations of these findings, and (c) discusses three issues of interest on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The three issues are as follows: regional effects versus global efficiency: the issue of hunger; climate change, agriculture and economic development; cost and disruption of adaptation to climate change. 45 refs., 3 tabs.

  13. Adaptation to Climate change Impacts on the Mediterranean islands' Agriculture (ADAPT2CLIMA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Lemesios, Giannis; Loizidou, Maria; Papadaskalopoulou, Christina; Moustakas, Konstantinos; Papadopoulou, Maria; Moriondo, Marco; Markou, Marinos; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Pasotti, Luigi

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is one of the economic sectors that will likely be hit hardest by climate change, since it directly depends on climatic factors such as temperature, sunlight, and precipitation. The EU LIFE ADAPT2CLIMA (http://adapt2clima.eu/en/) project aims to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture by deploying and demonstrating an innovative decision support tool. The ADAPT2CLIMA tool will make it possible to simulate the impacts of climate change on crop production and the effectiveness of selected adaptation options in decreasing vulnerability to climate change in three Mediterranean islands, namely Crete (Greece), Sicily (Italy), and Cyprus. The islands were selected for two reasons: firstly, they figure among the most important cultivation areas at national level. Secondly, they exhibit similarities in terms of location (climate), size, climate change threats faced (coastal agriculture, own water resources), agricultural practices, and policy relevance. In particular, the tool will provide: i) climate change projections; ii) hydrological conditions related to agriculture: iii) a vulnerability assessment of selected crops; iv) an evaluation of the adaptation options identified. The project is expected to contribute significantly to increasing climate resilience of agriculture areas in Sicily, Cyprus and Crete as well as at EU and international level by: • Developing, implementing and demonstrating an innovative and interactive decision support tool (ADAPT2CLIMA tool) for adaptation planning in agriculture that estimates future climate change impacts on local water resources, as well as the climate change vulnerability of the agricultural crop production in the project areas; • Evaluating the technical and economic viability of the implementation of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool; • Developing climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture (including a monitoring plan) for the three project areas and presenting them to the competent

  14. Evaluation of Resources of Agricultural Lands Using Fuzzy Indicators

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    With ever increasing demands on agriculture, it is essential that we be able to adequately evaluate agriculture land resources. Recently, efforts have been undertaken to develop methods and tools for the purpose of evaluating agricultural land resources. However, to be successful, assessments need...

  15. Climate change impacts on the U.S. agricultural economy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, You; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Gao, Wei

    2015-09-01

    The most important aggregate measure of the long run health of the productive component of the agricultural economy is agricultural total factor productivity (TFP). Between 1948 and 2011, average annual input growth in US agriculture averaged approximately 0.07% while annual average output growth averaged roughly 1.5%. That translates into an annual average agricultural TFP growth rate of approximately 1.43%. That growth has led to a remarkable expansion of the productive ability of the US agricultural sector. However, climate change poses unprecedented challenges to U.S. agricultural production because of the sensitivity of agricultural productivity and costs to changing climate conditions. Some studies have examined the effect of climate change on U.S. agriculture. But none has investigated how climate affects the overall U.S. agricultural productivity. This study intends to find out climate change impacts on U.S. agricultural TFP change (TFPC). By correlation analysis with data in 1979-2005, we found that precipitation and temperature had significant positive or negative correlations with U.S. agricultural TFPC. Those correlation coefficients ranged from -0.8 to 0.8. And significant correlations, whether positive or negative, existed in different regions and different seasons. This is important information for policy-makers in decisions to support U.S. agriculture sustainability.

  16. Estimating relative climatic change impact on groundwater of agricultural demand and recharge component in a multi-resources hydrological supply system: The case of the Fortore water supply system (South Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guyennon, Nicolas; Romano, Emanuele; Mariani, Davide; Bruna Petrangeli, Anna; Portoghese, Ivan

    2015-04-01

    The occurrence of shortage events on a water supply system can be investigated through models that simulate hydrological processes by describing the atmosphere/surface water/soil/groundwater interfaces, water demand variability and management options for different uses. However, when the supply system is fed by several water resources and dynamics changes of demand, it is necessary to develop models able to simulate the cause-effect mechanisms that involve not only the water budget physical processes, but also the choices of the users in terms of distribution of the demand among each resource and the actions implemented by the managers. The proposed overall model merges: (i) a 1 km2 discrete monthly soil water mass balance model (G-MAT) to estimate recharge to the aquifer, soil water content and surface runoff; (ii) a stochastic model based on a multi linear regression of standard precipitation index (SPI-Q) to reproduce inflow to surface water storage; (iii) a simple monthly reservoir water balance model considering inflow, demands and storage volumes; (iiii) a simple groundwater lumped budget model that considers soil recharge and well extraction following the management rules of the water supply system and the available surface water storage. While we consider the only seasonal variability for domestically and industrial water demand, the agricultural demand is estimated on the base of the monthly soil water content. The developed overall model has been implemented for the case study of the Fortore water supply system (Apulia region, South Italy), managed by the Consorzio di Bonifica della Capitanata. It allows to simulate the conjunctive use of the water from the Occhito artificial reservoir (160 Mm3) and from groundwater. We successfully reproduce the Occhito dam level variability (both seasonal and inter-annual) as well as the observed groundwater depletion until the early 2000 and the following recover. The resulting model is able to monitor relative

  17. Technology-Driven and Innovative Training for Sustainable Agriculture in The Face of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wishart, D. N.

    2015-12-01

    Innovative training in 'Sustainable Agriculture' for an increasingly STEM-dependent agricultural sector will require a combination of approaches and technologies for global agricultural production to increase while offsetting climate change. Climate change impacts the water resources of nations as normal global weather patterns are altered during El Nino events. Agricultural curricula must incorporate awareness of 'climate change' in order to find novel ways to (1) assure global food security; (2) improve soil productivity and conservation; (3) improve crop yields and irrigation; (4) inexpensively develop site specific principles of crop management based on variable soil and associated hydrological properties; and (5) improve precision farming. In February 2015, Central State University (CSU), Ohio became an 1890 Land-Grant institution vital to the sustainability of Ohio's agricultural sector. Besides agricultural extension, the agriculture curriculum at CSU integrates multidisciplinary courses in science, technology engineering, agriculture, and mathematics (STEAM). The agriculture program could benefit from a technology-driven, interdisciplinary soil science course that promotes climate change education and climate literacy while being offered in both a blended and collaborative learning environment. The course will focus on the dynamics of microscale to mesoscale processes occurring in farming systems, those of which impact climate change or could be impacted by climate change. Elements of this course will include: climate change webinars; soil-climate interactions; carbon cycling; the balance of carbon fluxes between soil storage and atmosphere; microorganisms and soil carbon storage; paleoclimate and soil forming processes; geophysical techniques used in the characterization of soil horizons; impact of climate change on soil fertility; experiments; and demonstrations.

  18. Emerging climate services for water resources planning

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The author’s perspective on new or experimental forecasts and data products that may be important for water resource planning were shared. Everyone who lives and works with the consequences of weather and climate have known or suspected for years that climate is shifting, have been adapting, and wa...

  19. Climate change, uncertainty, and natural resource management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Koneff, M.D.; Heglund, P.J.; Knutson, M.G.; Seamans, M.E.; Lyons, J.E.; Morton, J.M.; Jones, M.T.; Boomer, G.S.; Williams, B.K.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change and its associated uncertainties are of concern to natural resource managers. Although aspects of climate change may be novel (e.g., system change and nonstationarity), natural resource managers have long dealt with uncertainties and have developed corresponding approaches to decision-making. Adaptive resource management is an application of structured decision-making for recurrent decision problems with uncertainty, focusing on management objectives, and the reduction of uncertainty over time. We identified 4 types of uncertainty that characterize problems in natural resource management. We examined ways in which climate change is expected to exacerbate these uncertainties, as well as potential approaches to dealing with them. As a case study, we examined North American waterfowl harvest management and considered problems anticipated to result from climate change and potential solutions. Despite challenges expected to accompany the use of adaptive resource management to address problems associated with climate change, we conclude that adaptive resource management approaches will be the methods of choice for managers trying to deal with the uncertainties of climate change. ?? 2010 The Wildlife Society.

  20. Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks.

    PubMed

    Nelson, Gerald C; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, Erwin; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-03-01

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change. PMID:24344285

  1. Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

  2. Modeling soil processes for adapting agricultural systems to climate variability and change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basso, B.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change, drought, and agricultural intensification are increasing the demand for enhanced resource use efficiency (water, nitrogen and radiation). There is a global consensus between climate and agricultural scientists about the need to quantify the likely impacts of climate change on crop yields due to their significant consequences on food prices as well as the global economy. Crop models have been extensively tested for yields, but their validation for soil water balance, and carbon and nitrogen cycling in agricultural systems has been limited. The objective of this research is to illustrate the importance of modeling soil processes correctly to identify management strategy that allow cropping systems to adapt to climate variability and change. Results from the first phase of the AgMIP soil and crop rotation initiative will also be discussed.

  3. Agriculture and the Recent "Benign Climate" in Minnesota.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Donald G.; Ruschy, David L.; Skaggs, Richard H.

    1993-06-01

    A little noticed but remarkably consistent and agriculturally favorable climatic period existed for approximately 18 years, beginning in the mid-1950s in the U.S. Corn Belt and perhaps even earlier in Minnesota. The full application of technology to agriculture was delayed due to world political events (World War II and the Korean conflict, for example) until the 1950s. From then until about 1974, the interaction between this favorable climatic period and the applied technology and the enthusiasm they engendered in agricultural circles were subtle and unrealized factors that helped lead to the agricultural inflation of the 1970s, while the unexpected and generally unrecognized cessation of the "benign" climate must be considered as a factor leading to the agricultural depression in the 1980s.

  4. Adaptation Planning for Climate Change Impacts on Irrigated Agriculture in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winter, J. M.; Fekete, B. M.; Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change presents a unique challenge to water resources managers. As evolving patterns of precipitation alter the quantity and quality of runoff within watersheds, demand from competing sectors continues to increase. The agricultural industry is especially sensitive to future shifts in water supply and demand since irrigated croplands require large quantities of water at low prices. California is of interest because of its $35-billion agricultural sector, limited water resources, and complexity. This presentation explores future changes to the water resources of the western United States and the implications of these changes on California's irrigated agriculture. North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) model output was used to drive current (1980-1999) and future (2050-2069) Water Balance/Transport Model (WBM) simulations of key water cycle components, including evapotranspiration, soil moisture, surface runoff, and groundwater recharge, as well as some water use components, including agricultural and electrical, over the contiguous United States. Climatic and hydrologic data were then synthesized to evaluate whether drought conditions in California, both historic and future, dominantly coincide with droughts in adjacent states and identify neighboring regions with the potential to provide supplemental water resources to California. Uncertainty in the assessment of future water supply was analyzed using multiple general circulation model-regional climate model pairs from NARCCAP.

  5. Systems in peril: Climate change, agriculture and biodiversity in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cocklin, Chris; Dibden, Jacqui

    2009-11-01

    This paper reflects on the interplay amongst three closely linked systems - climate, agriculture and biodiversity - in the Australian context. The advance of a European style of agriculture has imperilled Australian biodiversity. The loss and degradation of biodiversity has, in turn, had negative consequences for agriculture. Climate change is imposing new pressures on both agriculture and biodiversity. From a policy and management perspective, though, it is possible to envisage mitigation and adaptation responses that would alleviate pressures on all three systems (climate, agriculture, biodiversity). In this way, the paper seeks to make explicit the important connections between science and policy. The paper outlines the distinctive features of both biodiversity and agriculture in the Australian context. The discussion then addresses the impacts of agriculture on biodiversity, followed by an overview of how climate change is impacting on both of these systems. The final section of the paper offers some commentary on current policy and management strategies that are targeted at mitigating the loss of biodiversity and which may also have benefits in terms of climate change.

  6. Climate Variability is Influencing Agricultural Expansion and Output in a Key Agricultural Region of Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spera, S. A.; Cohn, A.; VanWey, L.; Mustard, J. F.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last decade, the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso has both expanded and intensified its agricultural production to become the country's leading producer of soy, corn, and cotton. Yet this increase in agricultural production may be threatened due to changes in the region's climate stemming from deforestation caused by the agricultural expansion itself. The sensitivity of Mato Grosso's agriculture to climate variability has important implications for both climate change mitigation and climate adaptation. The vast bulk of research on the drivers of land use change in the region has examined economic and institutional drivers. Leveraging a novel remote sensing-derived dataset classifying shifts between single (cultivating one commercial crop per growing season) and double cropping (cultivating two commercial crops per growing season), we investigated the influence of climate variability on land use change during the period 2000 to 2011. Over the past decade, over half of Mato Grosso's farm area transitioned from single cropping to double cropping. We used regression analysis (controlling for space and time fixed effects) to show monthly rainfall, monthly temperature, agricultural commodity prices, and agricultural revenue to be the main drivers of adoption of double cropping and reversion to single cropping in the region. The influence of climate varies as much as five orders of magnitude across these outcomes, with both temperature and precipitation exhibiting the largest climatic influence on the transition from single to double cropping. Temperature consistently proves to be more important, explaining three times more of the variance than precipitation for each outcome. Months at the beginning of a given first crop season, the end of that first crop season, and middle of the subsequent second crop season are particularly important for planting decisions in the subsequent growing year. Fitting our land transition models using remote-sensing derived

  7. Implication of Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Climate Projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural land use plays an important role in land-atmosphere interaction. Agricultural activity is one of the most important processes driving human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) in a region. In addition to future socioeconomic changes, climate-induced changes in crop yield represent another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In feedback, the resulting LULCC influences the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. Therefore, assessment of climate change impact on future agricultural land use and its feedback is of great importance in climate change study. In this study, to evaluate the feedback of projected land use changes to the regional climate in West Africa, we employed an asynchronous coupling between a regional climate model (RegCM) and a prototype land use projection model (LandPro). The LandPro model, which was developed to project the future change in agricultural land use and the resulting shift in natural vegetation in West Africa, is a spatially explicit model that can account for both climate and socioeconomic changes in projecting future land use changes. In the asynchronously coupled modeling framework, LandPro was run for every five years during the period of 2005-2050 accounting for climate-induced change in crop yield and socioeconomic changes to project the land use pattern by the mid-21st century. Climate data at 0.5˚ was derived from RegCM to drive the crop model DSSAT for each of the five-year periods to simulate crop yields, which was then provided as input data to LandPro. Subsequently, the land use land cover map required to run RegCM was updated every five years using the outputs from the LandPro simulations. Results from the coupled model simulations improve the understanding of climate change impact on future land use and the resulting feedback to regional climate.

  8. Assessment of climate change impact on Eastern Washington agriculture

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An assessment of the potential impact of climate change and the concurrent increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration on eastern Washington State agriculture was conducted. Climate projections from four selected general circulation models (GCM) were chosen, and the assessment included the crops with ...

  9. Climate-smart agriculture global research agenda: science for action

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) addresses the challenge of meeting the growing demand for food, fiber, or fuel, caused by population growth, changes in diet related to increases in per capita income, and the need for alternative energy sources, despite the changing climate and fewer opportunities fo...

  10. Groundwater nitrate concentration evolution under climate change and agricultural adaptation scenarios: Prince Edward Island, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paradis, Daniel; Vigneault, Harold; Lefebvre, René; Savard, Martine M.; Ballard, Jean-Marc; Qian, Budong

    2016-03-01

    Nitrate (N-NO3) concentration in groundwater, the sole source of potable water in Prince Edward Island (PEI, Canada), currently exceeds the 10 mg L-1 (N-NO3) health threshold for drinking water in 6 % of domestic wells. Increasing climatic and socio-economic pressures on PEI agriculture may further deteriorate groundwater quality. This study assesses how groundwater nitrate concentration could evolve due to the forecasted climate change and its related potential changes in agricultural practices. For this purpose, a tridimensional numerical groundwater flow and mass transport model was developed for the aquifer system of the entire Island (5660 km2). A number of different groundwater flow and mass transport simulations were made to evaluate the potential impact of the projected climate change and agricultural adaptation. According to the simulations for year 2050, N-NO3 concentration would increase due to two main causes: (1) the progressive attainment of steady-state conditions related to present-day nitrogen loadings, and (2) the increase in nitrogen loadings due to changes in agricultural practices provoked by future climatic conditions. The combined effects of equilibration with loadings, climate and agricultural adaptation would lead to a 25 to 32 % increase in N-NO3 concentration over the Island aquifer system. The change in groundwater recharge regime induced by climate change (with current agricultural practices) would only contribute 0 to 6 % of that increase for the various climate scenarios. Moreover, simulated trends in groundwater N-NO3 concentration suggest that an increased number of domestic wells (more than doubling) would exceed the nitrate drinking water criteria. This study underlines the need to develop and apply better agricultural management practices to ensure sustainability of long-term groundwater resources. The simulations also show that observable benefits from positive changes in agricultural practices would be delayed in time due to

  11. Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leclère, D.; Havlík, P.; Fuss, S.; Schmid, E.; Mosnier, A.; Walsh, B.; Valin, H.; Herrero, M.; Khabarov, N.; Obersteiner, M.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the nature and geography of climate change, its impacts, and adequate responses. Locking agricultural systems into inadequate transformations costly to adjust is a significant risk and this acts as an incentive to delay action. It is crucial to gain insight into how much transformation is required from agricultural systems, how robust such strategies are, and how we can defuse the associated challenge for decision-making. While implementing a definition related to large changes in resource use into a global impact assessment modelling framework, we find transformational adaptations to be required of agricultural systems in most regions by 2050s in order to cope with climate change. However, these transformations widely differ across climate change scenarios: uncertainties in large-scale development of irrigation span in all continents from 2030s on, and affect two-thirds of regions by 2050s. Meanwhile, significant but uncertain reduction of major agricultural areas affects the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate latitudes, while increases to non-agricultural zones could be large but uncertain in one-third of regions. To help reducing the associated challenge for decision-making, we propose a methodology exploring which, when, where and why transformations could be required and uncertain, by means of scenario analysis.

  12. Ancient oak climate proxies from the agricultural heartland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guyette, Richard P.; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Dey, Daniel C.

    2004-11-01

    Understanding the long-term variability in climate has important societal implications, particularly for agricultural regions that are suppliers to global food markets such as the central United States. Paleoclimate information from agriculturally important regions of the central United States is limited in length and resolution.Tree rings provide one of the longest and highest-resolution paleoclimate records for North America; however, millennium-length records are primarily from extreme environments (e.g., deserts, cliffs, high elevations) and do not represent climate-plant responses in the central U.S. agricultural region.

  13. Potential ecological and economic consequences of climate-driven agricultural and silvicultural transformations in central Siberia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Zander, Evgeniya V.; Pyzhev, Anton I.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Soja, Amber J.

    2014-05-01

    climatic and soil resources. During this century, traditional Siberian crops are predicted to gradually shift northwards and new crops, which are currently non-existent but potentially important in a warmer climate, could be introduced in the extreme south. In a future warmer climate, the economic effect of climate change impacts on agriculture was estimated based on a production function approach and the Ricardian model. The production function estimated climate impacts of temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide levels. The Ricardian model examined climate impacts on the net rent or value of farmland at various regions. The models produced the optimal distribution of agricultural lands between crop, livestock, and forestry sectors to compensate economic losses in forestry in potential landuse areas depending on climatic change.

  14. "Intelligent Ensemble" Projections of Precipitation and Surface Radiation in Support of Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, Patrick C.; Baker, Noel C.

    2015-01-01

    Earth's climate is changing and will continue to change into the foreseeable future. Expected changes in the climatological distribution of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation will significantly impact agriculture. Adaptation strategies are, therefore, required to reduce the agricultural impacts of climate change. Climate change projections of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation distributions are necessary input for adaption planning studies. These projections are conventionally constructed from an ensemble of climate model simulations (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)) as an equal weighted average, one model one vote. Each climate model, however, represents the array of climate-relevant physical processes with varying degrees of fidelity influencing the projection of individual climate variables differently. Presented here is a new approach, termed the "Intelligent Ensemble, that constructs climate variable projections by weighting each model according to its ability to represent key physical processes, e.g., precipitation probability distribution. This approach provides added value over the equal weighted average method. Physical process metrics applied in the "Intelligent Ensemble" method are created using a combination of NASA and NOAA satellite and surface-based cloud, radiation, temperature, and precipitation data sets. The "Intelligent Ensemble" method is applied to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 anthropogenic climate forcing simulations within the CMIP5 archive to develop a set of climate change scenarios for precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation in each USDA Farm Resource Region for use in climate change adaptation studies.

  15. Modeling Renewable Water Resources under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, X.; Tang, Q.

    2014-12-01

    The impacts of climate change on renewable water resources are usually assessed using hydrological models driven by downscaled climate outputs from global climate models. Most hydrological models do not have explicit parameterization of vegetation and thus are unable to assess the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on stomatal conductance and water loss of leaf. The response of vegetation to elevated atmospheric CO2 would reduce evaporation and affect runoff and renewable water resources. To date, the impacts of elevated CO2 on vegetation transpiration were not well addressed in assessment of water resources under climate change. In this study, the distributed biosphere-hydrological (DBH) model, which incorporates a simple biosphere model into a distributed hydrological scheme, was used to assess the impacts of elevated CO2 on vegetation transpiration and consequent runoff. The DBH model was driven by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each climate scenario, two model experiments were conducted. The atmospheric CO2 concentration in one experiment was assumed to remain at the level of 2000 and increased as described by the RCPs in the other experiment. The results showed that the elevated CO2 would result in decrease in evapotranspiration, increase in runoff, and have considerable impacts on water resources. However, CO2 induced runoff change is generally small in dry areas likely because vegetation is usually sparse in the arid area.

  16. The impact of climate extremes on US agricultural production and the buffering impacts of irrigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troy, Tara J.; Kipgen, Chinpihoi; Pal, Indrani

    2014-05-01

    In recent years, droughts and floods have occurred over many of the major growing regions of the world, resulting in decreased agricultural production and increased global food prices. Many climate projections call for more frequent extreme events, which could have significant impacts on agricultural yields and water resources in irrigated agricultural regions. In order to better understand the potential impact of climate extremes and the spatial heterogeneity of those impacts, we examine the associations between climate and irrigated and rain fed crop yields, focusing on four main staple crops: wheat, rice, soy, and maize. Because the United States has high spatial resolution data for both yields and weather variables, the analysis focuses on the impact of multiple extremes over these four crops in the US using statistical methods that do not require any assumptions of functional relationships between yields and weather variables. Irrigated and rain fed agricultural yields are analyzed separately to understand the role irrigation plays either as a buffering against climate variability and extremes such as drought, heat waves, and extended dry spells or a mechanism that leads to varied relationships between extremes of climate and yield fluctuations. These results demonstrate that irrigation has varying effects depending on the region, growing season timing, crop type, and type of climate extreme. This work has important implications for future planning of the coupled water-food system and its vulnerabilities to climate.

  17. Development of an Integrated Agricultural Planning Model Considering Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santikayasa, I. P.

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this study is to develop an agriculture planning model in order to sustain the future water use under the estimation of crop water requirement, water availability and future climate projection. For this purpose, the Citarum river basin which is located in West Java - Indonesia is selected as the study area. Two emission scenarios A2 and B2 were selected. For the crop water requirement estimation, the output of HadCM3 AOGCM is statistically downscale using SDSM and used as the input for WEAP model developed by SEI (Stockholm Environmental Institute). The reliability of water uses is assessed by comparing the irrigation water demand and the water allocation for the irrigation area. The water supply resources are assessed using the water planning tool. This study shows that temperature and precipitation over the study area are projected to increase in the future. The water availability was projected to increase under both A2 and B2 emission scenarios in the future. The irrigation water requirement is expected to decrease in the future under A2 and B2 scenarios. By comparing the irrigation water demand and water allocation for irrigation, the reliability of agriculture water use is expected to change in the period of 2050s and 2080s while the reliability will not change in 2020s. The reliability under A2 scenario is expected to be higher than B2 scenario. The combination of WEAP and SDSM is significance to use in assessing and allocating the water resources in the region.

  18. Implications of climate mitigation for future agricultural production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate ∼81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure

  19. Climatic and agricultural drivers of soil erosion in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irvine, Brian; Kirkby, Mike; Fleskens, Luuk

    2015-04-01

    Soil erosion was the most frequently identified driver of land degradation across a selection of global research sites within the DESIRE-EU project. The PESERA model was adopted in the project to upscale field results and consider the potential biophysical impact both with and without stakeholder selected sustainable land management (SLM) technologies in place. The PESERA model was combined with the DESMICE economic model and focussed on forecasting the regional effects of combating desertification both in environmental and socio-economical terms. The PESERA-DESMICE approach is further developed in the WAHARA project to consider the potential of a range of water harvesting technologies to improve biophysical conditions. Modelling in the WAHARA project considers detail of water harvesting technologies at the study site scale through to a coarser application at the continental scale with the latter being informed by the detail provided by study site observations an approach adopted in DESIRE-EU. The PESERA-DESMICE approach considers the difference between a baseline scenario and a (water harvesting) technology scenario at both scales in terms of productivity, financial viability and scope for reducing erosion risk. This paper considers the continental scale and focuses on estimating the impact of in-situ water harvesting technologies across Africa under current and future agricultural and climate pressure. PESERA is adopted in this continental application as it implicitly considers the impact of land-use and climate and can be readily amended to simulate in-situ WHT. Input data for PESERA; land use, management (crop type and planting dates), soil data and topography are derived from global data resources. Climate data for present and future scenarios are available through the QUEST-GSI initiative, where future scenarios are based on the outputs of seven GCM's.

  20. Groundwater nitrate concentration evolution under climate change and agricultural adaptation scenarios: Prince Edward Island, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paradis, D.; Vigneault, H.; Lefebvre, R.; Savard, M. M.; Ballard, J.-M.; Qian, B.

    2015-08-01

    Nitrate (N-NO3) concentration in groundwater, the sole source of potable water in Prince Edward Island (PEI, Canada), currently exceeds the 10 mg L-1 (N-NO3) health threshold for drinking water in 6 % of domestic wells. Increasing climatic and socio-economic pressures on PEI agriculture may further deteriorate groundwater quality. This study assesses how groundwater nitrate concentrations could evolve due to the forecasted climate change and its related potential changes in agricultural practices. For this purpose, a tridimensional numerical groundwater flow and mass transport model was developed for the aquifer system of the entire Island (5660 km2). A number of different groundwater flow and mass transport simulations were made to evaluate the potential impact of the projected climate change and agricultural adaptation. According to the simulations for year 2050, N-NO3 concentration would increase due to two main causes: (1) the progressive attainment of steady-state conditions related to present-day nitrogen loadings, and (2) the increase in nitrogen loadings due to changes in agricultural practices provoked by future climatic conditions. The combined effects of equilibration with loadings, climate and agricultural adaptation would lead to a 25 to 32 % increase in N-NO3 concentration over the Island aquifer system. Climate change alone (practices maintained at their current level) would contribute only 0 to 6 % to that increase according to the various climate scenarios. Moreover, simulated trends in groundwater N-NO3 concentration suggest that an increased number of domestic wells (more than doubling) would exceed the nitrate drinking water criteria. This study underlines the need to develop and apply better agricultural management practices to ensure sustainability of long-term groundwater resources. The simulations also show that observable benefits from positive changes in agricultural practices would be delayed in time due to the slow dynamics of nitrate

  1. 25 CFR 162.201 - Must agricultural land be managed in accordance with a tribe's agricultural resource management...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... tribe's agricultural resource management plan? 162.201 Section 162.201 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS... Must agricultural land be managed in accordance with a tribe's agricultural resource management plan... and objectives in any agricultural resource management plan developed by the tribe, or by us in...

  2. Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

    PubMed Central

    Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d’Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, Erwin; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change. PMID:24344285

  3. Nitrogen – climate interactions in US agriculture

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agriculture in the United States cycles large quantities of nitrogen (N) to produce food, fuel and fiber and is a major source of excess reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the environment. Nitrogen lost from cropping systems and animal operations moves to waterways, groundwater, and the atmosphere. Changes i...

  4. Climate change and the origins of agriculture: A global perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Byrne, R.

    1995-12-31

    Most students of the agricultural origins problem have rejected the thesis that climate change was in important causal variable. For example, it is often emphasized that agriculture began at different times in different areas, and that climate change could not therefore have been a significant factor. It is also suggested that climate change at the end of the last glacial could not have been important, because similar changes in climate occurred at the end of the penultimate glaciation without any cultural response. The primary purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that these objections are invalid, and are based on a misunderstanding of: (1) the nature of late-Pleistocene/early-Holocene climate changes; and (2) the ecological context of early agriculture. Alternatively, it is proposed that the more or less synchronous development of agricultural in several widely separated areas of the globe is best seen as an indirect response to changes in climate during the Pleistocene/Holocene transitions. Three common denominators characterize the early centers of agricultural and collectively point to climate changes as a primary factor: (1) all are located in areas that today are characterized by strongly seasonal rainfall regimes; (2) the initial domestication of plants occurred independently at within a very short period of time during and immediately following the Pleistocene/Holocene transition; and (3) the early plant domesticates were either annuals or geophytes, autecologically adapted to seasonality of moisture supply. The implication is that increased seasonality during the Pleistocene/Holocene transition brought about changes in wild plant and animal populations that in turn led to domestication and agriculture.

  5. Global Analogues of Climate Change Effects on Agriculture and Groundwater Between Hydrologically Similar Regions of the World

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Large regions of the world are heavily dependent upon groundwater for domestic water and irrigation. The impacts of climate change, including modified climate variability, on groundwater resources, soil water, agriculture, and human life are relatively unknown in most areas, and key sensitivities n...

  6. Modeling Climate Impacts on Agriculture in South East South America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ines, A. M.; Baethgen, W.; Greene, A. M.; Goddard, L. M.

    2013-12-01

    In the past two decades, a rapid expansion of croplands in South East South America is observed. This drastic change in landuse is seen to be due to two major factors - climate and economics. Converting marginal lands into agricultural lands is possible due to the increase in annual precipitation in the region and the increasing prices of soybeans and higher demands for grain crops have played a key role to this expansion. But the question is, how sustainable is the current trend in the future? A modeling study is conducted to evaluate the impacts of climate on agriculture in the Southern Cone of South America. We examine the impacts of climate variability and current climate change to crop yields using crop simulation models. Using the results of our current climate analysis as a baseline, we evaluate the impacts of future climate change in the next 10-30 years. Climate projections include scenarios considering only global warming, ozone and both impacting the near-term climate of the future in the region and considering decadal variability. We aim to evaluate the vulnerability of the current system to climate change. This paper will present the results of our modeling study.

  7. Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, Gerald; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Mueller, C.; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2013-12-16

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and will thus be directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathway that result in end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 watts per square meter. The mean biophysical impact on crop yield with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17 percent reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11 percent, increase area of major crops by 12 percent, and reduce consumption by 2 percent. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences includes model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

  8. Critical Thinking for Natural Resource, Agricultural, and Environmental Ethics Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quinn, Courtney; Burbach, Mark E.; Matkin, Gina S.; Flores, Kevin

    2009-01-01

    Future decision makers in natural resource fields will be required to make judgments on issues that lack clear solutions and with information complicated by ethical challenges. Therefore, natural resource, environmental, and agricultural professionals must possess the ability to think critically about the consequences of policy, economic systems,…

  9. Climate change mitigation for agriculture: water quality benefits and costs.

    PubMed

    Wilcock, Robert; Elliott, Sandy; Hudson, Neale; Parkyn, Stephanie; Quinn, John

    2008-01-01

    impair wetland function to intercept and remove nitrate from drainage water, or even add to the overall N loading to waterways. DCD is water soluble and degrades rapidly in warm soil conditions. The recommended application rate of 10 kg DCD/ha corresponds to 6 kg N/ha and may be exceeded in warm climates. Of the N2O produced by agricultural systems, approximately 30% is emitted from indirect sources, which are waterways draining agriculture. It is important therefore to focus strategies for managing N inputs to agricultural systems generally to reduce inputs to wetlands and streams where these might be reduced to N2O. Waste management options include utilizing the CH4 resource produced in farm waste treatment ponds as a source of energy, with conversion to CO2 via combustion achieving a 21-fold reduction in GHG emissions. Both of these have co-benefits for waterways as a result of reduced loadings. A conceptual model derived showing the linkages between key land management practices for greenhouse gas mitigation and key waterway values and ecosystem attributes is derived to aid resource managers making decisions affecting waterways and atmospheric GHG emissions. PMID:19092184

  10. Climate change impacts on main agricultural activities in the Oltenia Plain (Romania)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitrica, B.; Mateescu, E.; Dragota, C.; Busuioc, A.; Grigorescu, I.; Popovici, A.

    2012-04-01

    Understanding the key drivers of agriculture in relation to climate change as well as their interrelationship with land management decisions and policies, one may be able to project future agricultural productions under certain economic, environmental, and social scenarios in order to minimize their negative impacts. The paper is aiming to stress upon the importance of modelling the potential impact of climate change on crop production, particularly under the current conditions when natural resources and food supplies are shortening in many parts of the world. Under the given circumstances, in assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Oltenia Plain, the authors used a simulation model CERES (Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis), developed as a predictive and deterministic model, used for basic and applied research on the effects of climate (thermal regime, water stress) and management (fertilization practices, irrigation) on the growth and yield of different crops. In assessing the impact of climate change on maize and autumn wheat crops two applications of CERES model were used: CERES-Wheat and CERES-Maize overlapping two regional climatic scenarios for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 periods. These models describe, based on daily data the basic biophysical processes which take place at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface as a response to the variability of different processes such as: photosynthesis, specific phonological phases, evapotranspiration, water dynamics in soil etc. Assessing the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity under the two regional climatic scenarios (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) will reveal their potential consequences on the main agricultural crops in the Oltenia Plain (autumn wheat and maize) depending on the interaction between local climatic conditions, the effect rising CO2 on photosynthesis and the genetical type of crops. Therefore, the autumn wheat benefits from the interaction between the rise of CO2 and air

  11. Resource Guide to Educational Materials about Agriculture. A Project of Agriculture in the Classroom.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC. Office of the Secretary.

    Designed to help teachers bring more information about agriculture into their classrooms, this resource guide provides a listing of materials relating to agriculture available from private and public sources. It describes materials available from more than 300 organizations and publishers who responded to a request regarding materials they were…

  12. Resource Guide to Educational Materials about Agriculture. A Project of Agriculture in the Classroom. 1996 Edition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC. Office of the Secretary.

    This resource guide provides a list of materials available from public and private sources on agriculture and related issues. More than 300 organizations and publishers were asked what materials they were producing that could help regular K-12 classroom teachers incorporate more information about agriculture into their instruction. This guide is…

  13. Impact of climate change on water resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Dan; Werners, Saskia; Ludwig, Fulco

    2014-05-01

    Climate change will affect hydrological regimes of rivers, and have a direct impact on availability, renewability, and quality of water resources. To better understand current and future water resources in the Pearl River basin, here we assess the impact of climate change on river discharge, and identify whether climate change will lead to increasing water availability or scarcity at the catchment scale. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is used for hydrological simulation driven by WATCH (the Integrated Project Water and Global Change) forcing data (1958-2001), WATCH forcing data ERA interim (1979-2001) and ten bias-corrected projected climate scenarios from MPI-ESM-LR, HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5, IPSL-CM5A-LR and EC-EARTH forced by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (1961-2099). All subbasins except Yujiang basin show a decrease in streamflow from 1961 to 2099. The results also indicate that the wet season will become more wet, and the dry season will become drier over the whole Pearl River basin after 2030. Highly uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources may result in water shortages and severe hazards in this region.

  14. Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weindl, Isabelle; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander; Müller, Christoph; Havlík, Petr; Herrero, Mario; Schmitz, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne

    2015-09-01

    Livestock farming is the world’s largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated climate impacts on crop yields and rangeland productivity generate adaptation costs amounting to 3% of total agricultural production costs in 2045 (i.e. 145 billion US). Shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop-livestock systems represent a resource- and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing agricultural adaptation costs to 0.3% of total production costs and simultaneously abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. The relatively positive climate impacts on grass yields compared with crop yields favor grazing systems inter alia in South Asia and North America. Incomplete transitions in production systems already have a strong adaptive and cost reducing effect: a 50% shift to mixed systems lowers agricultural adaptation costs to 0.8%. General responses of production costs to system transitions are robust across different global climate and crop models as well as regarding assumptions on CO2 fertilization, but simulated values show a large variation. In the face of these uncertainties, public policy support for transforming livestock production systems provides an important lever to improve agricultural resource management and lower adaptation costs, possibly even contributing to emission reduction.

  15. Water resources transfers through southern African food trade: resource efficiency and climate adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dalin, Carole; Conway, Declan

    2015-04-01

    The connections between climate and the water-food nexus are strong and economically significant in southern Africa, yet the role of observed climate variability as a driver of production fluctuations is poorly understood. In addition, as regional collaboration strengthens through the SADC (Southern Africa Development Community) and trade with other regions increases, it is important to understand both how climate variability affects productivity and how intra- and extra-regional trade can contribute to the region's capacity to deal with climate-related productivity shocks. We use international food trade data (FAOSTAT) and a global hydrological model (H08) to quantify the water resources embedded in international food trade across southern Africa and with the rest of the world, from 1986-2011. We analyze the impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic changes on agricultural trade and embedded water resources during that period. In particular, the effects of climate variability on trade flows and crop yields are estimated, to provide insights on the potential of trade as a collaborative adaptation mechanism.

  16. Analysis of economic impacts of climate change on agricultural water management in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garrote, Luis; Iglesias, Ana

    2016-04-01

    This contribution presents an analysis of impacts of climate change on agricultural water management in Europe. The analysis of climate change impacts on agriculture is composed of two main categories: rainfed agriculture and irrigated agriculture. Impacts on rainfed agriculture are mostly conditioned by climatic factors and were evaluated through the estimation of changes in agricultural productivity induced by climatic changes using the SARA model. At each site, process-based crop responses to climate and management are simulated by using the DSSAT crop models for cereals (wheat and rice), coarse grains (maize) and leguminous (soybeans). Changes in the rest of the crops are derived from analogies to these main crops. For each of the sites we conducted a sensitivity analysis to environmental variables (temperature, precipitation and CO2 levels) and management variables (planting date, nitrogen and irrigation applications) to obtain a database of crop responses. The resulting site output was used to define statistical models of yield response for each site which were used to obtain estimates of changes in agricultural productivity of representative production systems in European agro-climatic regions. Impacts on irrigated agriculture are mostly conditioned by water availability and were evaluated through the estimation of changes in water availability using the WAAPA model, which simulates the operation of a water resources system to maximize water availability. Basic components of WAAPA are inflows, reservoirs and demands. These components are linked to nodes of the river network. WAAPA allows the simulation of reservoir operation and the computation of supply to demands from a system of reservoirs accounting for ecological flows and evaporation losses. WAAPA model was used to estimate maximum potential water availability in the European river network applying gross volume reliability as performance criterion. Impacts on agricultural production are also dependent

  17. Climate adaptation strategy for natural resources released

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2013-04-01

    The National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy, released on 26 March by the Obama administration, calls for a series of measures to help public and private decision makers better address the effects of climate change on living natural resources. The measures include conserving habitat to support healthy fish, wildlife, and plant populations and ecosystem functions; managing species and habitats to protect ecosystem functions and provide sustainable commercial, subsistence, recreational, and cultural use; increasing knowledge and information about effects on and responses of fish, wildlife, and plants; and reducing nonclimate stressors to help fish, wildlife, plants, and ecosystems adapt.

  18. Climate Change and Agriculture in the U.S.: Effects and Adaptation (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walsh, M. K.; Rippey, B.; Walthall, C. L.; Hatfield, J.; Backlund, P. W.; Lengnick, L.; Marshall, E.

    2013-12-01

    Agriculture in the United States has followed a path of continual adaptation to a wide range of factors throughout its history. However, observational evidence, supported by an understanding of the physical climate system, shows that human-induced climate change is underway in the U.S. and even now causing changes for which there is no historical reference for producers. Temperatures have increased and precipitation patterns have changed; the incidence, frequency, and extent of pest infestations have been altered, as well as the natural resource base (water, air, and soils) upon which production depends. Each factor challenges agricultural management as atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases rise. These trends are likely to continue over the next century. Importantly, a gap exists between U.S. agricultural producers and managers' needs related to climate-driven problems and the information that research currently offers them. In the past, agricultural research into climate change effects has largely focused on mean values of precipitation and temperature. Today's management requirements, however, often demand immediate response on shorter time scales to address abrupt, often novel needs. Further complicating this reality, future decisions will likely require even greater emphasis on managing under increasing levels of uncertainty, and planning for and adjusting to the extremes. Research is moving to better address these emerging issues for the relevant timescales and parameters in order to allow the formulation of improved and resilient management strategies that apply to a future in which past experience has become less applicable. A climate-ready U.S. agricultural system requires easy access to useable climate knowledge and technical resources, improved climate risk management strategies, new processes to support effective adaptive actions, and the development of sustainable production systems resilient to climate effects. Mainstreaming climate knowledge

  19. The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation

    SciTech Connect

    Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page; Zhang, Xuesong; Bandaru, Varaprasad; West, Tristram O.; Wise, Marshall A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-19

    Land use change is a complex response to changing environmental and socioeconomic systems. Historical drivers of land use change include changes in the natural resource availability of a region, changes in economic conditions for production of certain products and changing policies. Most recently, introduction of policy incentives for biofuel production have influenced land use change in the US Midwest, leading to concerns that bioenergy production systems may compete with food production and land conservation. Here we explore how land use may be impacted by future climate mitigation measures by nesting a high resolution agricultural model (EPIC – Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) for the US Midwest within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM – Global Change Assessment Model). This approach is designed to provide greater spatial resolution and detailed agricultural practice information by focusing on the climate mitigation potential of agriculture and land use in a specific region, while retaining the global economic context necessary to understand the far ranging effects of climate mitigation targets. We find that until the simulated carbon prices are very high, the US Midwest has a comparative advantage in producing traditional food and feed crops over bioenergy crops. Overall, the model responds to multiple pressures by adopting a mix of future responses. We also find that the GCAM model is capable of simulations at multiple spatial scales and agricultural technology resolution, which provides the capability to examine regional response to global policy and economic conditions in the context of climate mitigation.

  20. Career Preparation in Agricultural Resources: A Curriculum Guide for High School Vocational Agriculture. Test Edition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Householder, Larry

    This curriculum guide in agricultural resources is one of 10 guides developed as part of a vocational project stressing agribusiness, natural resources, and environmental protection. The scope of this guide includes eight occupational subgroups: fish, forestry, mining area restoration, outdoor recreation, soil, range, water, and wildlife. It is…

  1. Introduction to Federal and EPA Climate Change Web Resources

    EPA Science Inventory

    Presentation provides an overview of four climate data and tool websites: the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and Climate Resilience Toolkit (interagency websites); the main EPA climate change website; and the internal EPA Adaptation Resource Center website.

  2. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  3. Climate Impacts on US Agriculture and Forestry: Implications of Global Climate Stabilization

    EPA Science Inventory

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. Although there have been n...

  4. Essays on agricultural adaptation to climate change and ethanol market integration in the U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aisabokhae, Ruth Ada

    Climate factors like precipitation and temperature, being closely intertwined with agriculture, make a changing climate a big concern for the entire human race and its basic survival. Adaptation to climate is a long-running characteristic of agriculture evidenced by the varying types and forms of agricultural enterprises associated with differing climatic conditions. Nevertheless climate change poses a substantial, additional adaptation challenge for agriculture. Mitigation encompasses efforts to reduce the current and future extent of climate change. Biofuels production, for instance, expands agriculture's role in climate change mitigation. This dissertation encompasses adaptation and mitigation strategies as a response to climate change in the U.S. by examining comprehensively scientific findings on agricultural adaptation to climate change; developing information on the costs and benefits of select adaptations to examine what adaptations are most desirable, for which society can further devote its resources; and studying how ethanol prices are interrelated across, and transmitted within the U.S., and the markets that play an important role in these dynamics. Quantitative analysis using the Forestry and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM) shows adaptation to be highly beneficial to agriculture. On-farm varietal and other adaptations contributions outweigh a mix shift northwards significantly, implying progressive technical change and significant returns to adaptation research and investment focused on farm management and varietal adaptations could be quite beneficial over time. Northward shift of corn-acre weighted centroids observed indicates that substantial production potential may shift across regions with the possibility of less production in the South, and more in the North, and thereby, potential redistribution of income. Time series techniques employed to study ethanol price dynamics show that the markets studied are co-integrated and strongly

  5. Climate impacts on agriculture: Implications for crop production

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Changes in temperature, CO2, and precipitation under the scenarios of climate change for the next 50 years present a challenge to crop production. Understanding these implications for agricultural crops is critical to being able to develop cropping systems which are resilient to stresses induced by ...

  6. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Climate Impact Assessment for Pacific Northwest Agricultural Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MU, J.; Antle, J. M.; Zhang, H.; Capalbo, S. M.; Eigenbrode, S.; Kruger, C.; Stockle, C.; Wolfhorst, J. D.

    2013-12-01

    Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are projections of plausible future biophysical and socio-economic conditions used to carry out climate impact assessments for agriculture. The development of RAPs iss motivated by the fact that the various global and regional models used for agricultural climate change impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation or public availability. These practices have hampered attempts at model inter-comparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. This paper aims to (1) present RAPs developed for the principal wheat-producing region of the Pacific Northwest, and to (2) combine these RAPs with downscaled climate data, crop model simulations and economic model simulations to assess climate change impacts on winter wheat production and farm income. This research was carried out as part of a project funded by the USDA known as the Regional Approaches to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest (REACCH). The REACCH study region encompasses the major winter wheat production area in Pacific Northwest and preliminary research shows that farmers producing winter wheat could benefit from future climate change. However, the future world is uncertain in many dimensions, including commodity and input prices, production technology, and policies, as well as increased probability of disturbances (pests and diseases) associated with a changing climate. Many of these factors cannot be modeled, so they are represented in the regional RAPS. The regional RAPS are linked to global agricultural and shared social-economic pathways, and used along with climate change projections to simulate future outcomes for the wheat-based farms in the REACCH region.

  7. Managing for Phosphorus and Other Resources in Globalized Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MacDonald, G. K.; Mueller, N. D.; Bennett, E.; Brauman, K. A.; Gerber, J. S.; Metson, G. S.; West, P. C.

    2014-12-01

    Agricultural trade has an important effect on the distribution of resource use among regions. Trade is particularly important for understanding human impacts on the phosphorus (P) cycle, as mineral P reserves are geopolitically concentrated. Yet, P use is only one component of the broader agro-environmental dimensions of globalized agriculture. Understanding complex interactions among multiple components of land use and resource management in trade networks is needed. We fuse comprehensive global agricultural datasets illustrating key facets of land use and management with bilateral trade statistics to explore phosphorus-use efficiency in relation to other agro-environmental indicators. Our findings illustrate tradeoffs among phosphorus-use efficiency, nitrogen-use efficiency, crop-water productivity, and overall crop yields embodied within trade networks. Disparities in the land-use intensity of different exporting countries reflect the types of commodities produced, the degree of export-orientation, and the biophysical context of production. Phosphorus inefficiencies could compound other problems, such as water scarcity, but our findings also reveal places with relatively high efficiency across multiple indicators—offering insight on how overall resource management can be balanced for export production. Using the prevailing agricultural systems of key exporting regions as a backdrop, we highlight opportunities to leverage agricultural efficiencies embodied in global trade networks to conserve multiple resources.

  8. Agriculture

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agriculture within the United States is varied and produces a large value ($200 billion in 2002) of production across a wide range of plant and animal production systems. Because of this diversity, changes in climate will likely impact agriculture throughout the United States. Climate affects crop, ...

  9. Climate, water and agriculture in the Tropics

    SciTech Connect

    Jackson, I.J.

    1989-01-01

    The broad view is established with a functional definition of the tropics to include the area lying within the region of the easterly trade winds and its extension to extratropical regions that are affected by tropical phenomena such as the southwest Indian monsoon and hurricanes. In the first five chapters Jackson discusses atmospheric water largely in physical terms-its origin and transport with relation to general circulation patterns and precipitation characteristics such as frequency, duration, and intensity, which are as important as total rainfall in the consideration of runoff, biological productivity, and land utilization. In the remainder of the book water-soil-plant relationships are discussed generally and specifically for selected crops and regions. Popular emotional appears currently decry the destruction of tropical wet forests. Jackson makes it clear that tropical lands exhibit a rich variation in climates and that problems of exploitation rooted in cultures, economics, politics, and population growth cannot be solved by the simple introduction of temperate zone science and technology. This volume is a hybrid between an intermediate level textbook and a review article for the knowledgeable investigator, planner, or administrator, and the values to be found in it will vary with the background and interests of the reader. A reference list of more than 800 titles, perhaps half of them dated in the present decade, is a major asset, especially when coupled with extensive author and subject indexes.

  10. Modeling irrigation-based climate change adaptation in agriculture: Model development and evaluation in Northeast China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okada, Masashi; Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakurai, Gen; Hanasaki, Naota; Sakai, Toru; Okamoto, Katsuo; Yokozawa, Masayuki

    2015-09-01

    Replacing a rainfed cropping system with an irrigated one is widely assumed to be an effective measure for climate change adaptation. However, many agricultural impact studies have not necessarily accounted for the space-time variations in the water availability under changing climate and land use. Moreover, many hydrologic and agricultural assessments of climate change impacts are not fully integrated. To overcome this shortcoming, a tool that can simultaneously simulate the dynamic interactions between crop production and water resources in a watershed is essential. Here we propose the regional production and circulation coupled model (CROVER) by embedding the PRYSBI-2 (Process-based Regional Yield Simulator with Bayesian Inference version 2) large-area crop model into the global water resources model (called H08), and apply this model to the Songhua River watershed in Northeast China. The evaluation reveals that the model's performance in capturing the major characteristics of historical change in surface soil moisture, river discharge, actual crop evapotranspiration, and soybean yield relative to the reference data during the interval 1979-2010 is satisfactory accurate. The simulation experiments using the model demonstrated that subregional irrigation management, such as designating the area to which irrigation is primarily applied, has measurable influences on the regional crop production in a drought year. This finding suggests that reassessing climate change risk in agriculture using this type of modeling is crucial not to overestimate potential of irrigation-based adaptation.

  11. NASA Earth Resources Survey Symposium. Volume 1-A: Agriculture, environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1975-01-01

    A number of papers dealing with the practical application of imagery obtained from remote sensors on LANDSAT satellites, the Skylab Earth resources experiment package, and aircraft to problems in agriculture and the environment were presented. Some of the more important topics that were covered included: range management and resources, environmental monitoring and management, crop growth and inventory, land management, multispectral band scanners, forest management, mapping, marshlands, strip mining, water quality and pollution, ecology.

  12. Recent climate and air pollution impacts on Indian agriculture

    PubMed Central

    Burney, Jennifer; Ramanathan, V.

    2014-01-01

    Recent research on the agricultural impacts of climate change has primarily focused on the roles of temperature and precipitation. These studies show that India has already been negatively affected by recent climate trends. However, anthropogenic climate changes are a result of both global emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). Two potent SLCPs, tropospheric ozone and black carbon, have direct effects on crop yields beyond their indirect effects through climate; emissions of black carbon and ozone precursors have risen dramatically in India over the past three decades. Here, to our knowledge for the first time, we present results of the combined effects of climate change and the direct effects of SLCPs on wheat and rice yields in India from 1980 to 2010. Our statistical model suggests that, averaged over India, yields in 2010 were up to 36% lower for wheat than they otherwise would have been, absent climate and pollutant emissions trends, with some densely populated states experiencing 50% relative yield losses. [Our point estimates for rice (−20%) are similarly large, but not statistically significant.] Upper-bound estimates suggest that an overwhelming fraction (90%) of these losses is due to the direct effects of SLCPs. Gains from addressing regional air pollution could thus counter expected future yield losses resulting from direct climate change effects of LLGHGs. PMID:25368149

  13. Recent climate and air pollution impacts on Indian agriculture.

    PubMed

    Burney, Jennifer; Ramanathan, V

    2014-11-18

    Recent research on the agricultural impacts of climate change has primarily focused on the roles of temperature and precipitation. These studies show that India has already been negatively affected by recent climate trends. However, anthropogenic climate changes are a result of both global emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). Two potent SLCPs, tropospheric ozone and black carbon, have direct effects on crop yields beyond their indirect effects through climate; emissions of black carbon and ozone precursors have risen dramatically in India over the past three decades. Here, to our knowledge for the first time, we present results of the combined effects of climate change and the direct effects of SLCPs on wheat and rice yields in India from 1980 to 2010. Our statistical model suggests that, averaged over India, yields in 2010 were up to 36% lower for wheat than they otherwise would have been, absent climate and pollutant emissions trends, with some densely populated states experiencing 50% relative yield losses. [Our point estimates for rice (-20%) are similarly large, but not statistically significant.] Upper-bound estimates suggest that an overwhelming fraction (90%) of these losses is due to the direct effects of SLCPs. Gains from addressing regional air pollution could thus counter expected future yield losses resulting from direct climate change effects of LLGHGs. PMID:25368149

  14. Extreme vulnerability of smallholder farmers to agricultural risks and climate change in Madagascar

    PubMed Central

    Harvey, Celia A.; Rakotobe, Zo Lalaina; Rao, Nalini S.; Dave, Radhika; Razafimahatratra, Hery; Rabarijohn, Rivo Hasinandrianina; Rajaofara, Haingo; MacKinnon, James L.

    2014-01-01

    Across the tropics, smallholder farmers already face numerous risks to agricultural production. Climate change is expected to disproportionately affect smallholder farmers and make their livelihoods even more precarious; however, there is limited information on their overall vulnerability and adaptation needs. We conducted surveys of 600 households in Madagascar to characterize the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, identify how farmers cope with risks and explore what strategies are needed to help them adapt to climate change. Malagasy farmers are particularly vulnerable to any shocks to their agricultural system owing to their high dependence on agriculture for their livelihoods, chronic food insecurity, physical isolation and lack of access to formal safety nets. Farmers are frequently exposed to pest and disease outbreaks and extreme weather events (particularly cyclones), which cause significant crop and income losses and exacerbate food insecurity. Although farmers use a variety of risk-coping strategies, these are insufficient to prevent them from remaining food insecure. Few farmers have adjusted their farming strategies in response to climate change, owing to limited resources and capacity. Urgent technical, financial and institutional support is needed to improve the agricultural production and food security of Malagasy farmers and make their livelihoods resilient to climate change. PMID:24535397

  15. Mitigating climate change through managing constructed-microbial communities in agriculture

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Hamilton, Cyd E.; Bever, James D.; Labbe, Jessy; Yang, Xiaohan; Yin, Hengfu

    2015-10-27

    The importance of increasing crop production while reducing resource inputs and land-use change cannot be overstated especially in light of climate change and a human population growth projected to reach nine billion this century. Here, mutualistic plant microbe interactions offer a novel approach to enhance agricultural productivity while reducing environmental costs. In concert with other novel agronomic technologies and management, plant-microbial mutualisms could help increase crop production and reduce yield losses by improving resistance and/or resilience to edaphic, biologic, and climatic variability from both bottom-up and top-down perspectives.

  16. Mitigating climate change through managing constructed-microbial communities in agriculture

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, Cyd E; Bever, James; Labbe, Jessy; Yang, Xiaohan; Yin, Hengfu

    2016-01-01

    The importance of increasing crop production while reducing resource inputs and land-use change cannot be overstated especially in light of climate change and a human population growth projected to reach nine billion this century. Mutualistic plant microbe interactions offer a novel approach to enhance agricultural productivity while reducing environmental costs. In concert with other novel agronomic technologies and management, plant-microbial mutualisms could help increase crop production and reduce yield losses by improving resistance and/or resilience to edaphic, biologic, and climatic variability from both bottom-up and top-down perspectives.

  17. Agricultural Resources Materials for Agricultural Education Programs. Core Agricultural Education Curriculum, Central Cluster.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Illinois Univ., Urbana. Office of Agricultural Communications and Education.

    This curriculum guide contains four units with relevant problem areas and is intended as a source unit for agricultural education. These problem areas have been selected as suggested areas of study to be included in a core curriculum for secondary students enrolled in an agricultural education program. Each problem area includes some or all of the…

  18. Land Resources for Crop Production. Agricultural Economic Report Number 572.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hexem, Roger; Krupa, Kenneth S.

    About 35 million acres not being cultivated have high potential for crop use and 117 million more have medium potential, according to the 1982 National Resources Inventory (NRI) conducted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. USDA committees evaluated the economic potential for converting land based on physical characteristics of the soil; size…

  19. Agriculture/Natural Resources Environmental Technician Task List. Occupational Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Henrico County Public Schools, Glen Allen, VA. Virginia Vocational Curriculum and Resource Center.

    This publication contains a worker task list and supplementary information for occupations in the agriculture and natural resources cluster of occupations. The task list were generated through the DACUM (Developing a Curriculum) process and/or by analysis by a panel of experts. Tasks are listed in 10 categories: (1) performing investigative…

  20. Irrigation, Climate, and Groundwater Depletion in Agricultural Regions of the US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russo, T. A.; Lall, U.

    2014-12-01

    Groundwater is increasingly relied on as a critical resource for meeting irrigation water demands. This study quantifies trends in groundwater levels across the US, and determines correlations with irrigation water extraction and climate patterns. We focus on high productivity agricultural regions including the High Plains and the lower Mississippi. Our analysis of all USGS groundwater level records for wells deeper than 30 m indicates that groundwater levels declined across much of these areas between 1949 and 2009. We illustrate some of the dominant patterns in groundwater decline, and explore potential correlations between resource use and availability. We observe correlations between pumping rate and groundwater level in a majority of counties with significant irrigation, with some notable exceptions. To determine how climate corresponded to groundwater levels we performed a simple regression analysis in addition to using wavelet coherence for both annual precipitation and longer-term climate phenomena against groundwater level observations. Due to the focus on deep production wells, we found minimal correlation between groundwater and inter-annual precipitation patterns, though on average the wells correlated with the longer period climate patterns, and specifically with the PDO. The results from this study can be used to quantify relationships between irrigation water consumption, climate, and groundwater resources, and potentially to estimate water scarcity risks under projected irrigation demands and climate conditions.

  1. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    SciTech Connect

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison M.; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russ; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, B. J.; McFarland, Jim; Strzepek, K.; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  2. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  3. AgBase: a functional genomics resource for agriculture

    PubMed Central

    McCarthy, Fiona M; Wang, Nan; Magee, G Bryce; Nanduri, Bindu; Lawrence, Mark L; Camon, Evelyn B; Barrell, Daniel G; Hill, David P; Dolan, Mary E; Williams, W Paul; Luthe, Dawn S; Bridges, Susan M; Burgess, Shane C

    2006-01-01

    Background Many agricultural species and their pathogens have sequenced genomes and more are in progress. Agricultural species provide food, fiber, xenotransplant tissues, biopharmaceuticals and biomedical models. Moreover, many agricultural microorganisms are human zoonoses. However, systems biology from functional genomics data is hindered in agricultural species because agricultural genome sequences have relatively poor structural and functional annotation and agricultural research communities are smaller with limited funding compared to many model organism communities. Description To facilitate systems biology in these traditionally agricultural species we have established "AgBase", a curated, web-accessible, public resource for structural and functional annotation of agricultural genomes. The AgBase database includes a suite of computational tools to use GO annotations. We use standardized nomenclature following the Human Genome Organization Gene Nomenclature guidelines and are currently functionally annotating chicken, cow and sheep gene products using the Gene Ontology (GO). The computational tools we have developed accept and batch process data derived from different public databases (with different accession codes), return all existing GO annotations, provide a list of products without GO annotation, identify potential orthologs, model functional genomics data using GO and assist proteomics analysis of ESTs and EST assemblies. Our journal database helps prevent redundant manual GO curation. We encourage and publicly acknowledge GO annotations from researchers and provide a service for researchers interested in GO and analysis of functional genomics data. Conclusion The AgBase database is the first database dedicated to functional genomics and systems biology analysis for agriculturally important species and their pathogens. We use experimental data to improve structural annotation of genomes and to functionally characterize gene products. AgBase is also

  4. Beyond climate-smart agriculture: toward safe operating spaces for global food systems

    SciTech Connect

    Gulledge, Jay; Neufeldt, Heinrich; Jahn, Margaret M; Lezaks, David P; Meinke, Jan H; Scholes, Robert J

    2013-01-01

    Agriculture is considered to be climate-smart when it contributes to increasing food security, adaptation and mitigation in a sustainable way. This new concept now dominates current discussions in agricultural development because of its capacity to unite the agendas of the agriculture, development and climate change communities under one brand. In this opinion piece authored by scientists from a variety of international agricultural and climate research communities, we argue that the concept needs to be evaluated critically because the relationship between the three dimensions is poorly understood, such that practically any improved agricultural practice can be considered climate-smart. This lack of clarity may have contributed to the broad appeal of the concept. From the understanding that we must hold ourselves accountable to demonstrably better meet human needs in the short and long term within foreseeable local and planetary limits, we develop a conceptualization of climate-smart agriculture as agriculture that can be shown to bring us closer to safe operating spaces for agricultural and food systems across spatial and temporal scales. Improvements in the management of agricultural systems that bring us significantly closer to safe operating spaces will require transformations in governance and use of our natural resources, underpinned by enabling political, social and economic conditions beyond incremental changes. Establishing scientifically credible indicators and metrics of long-term safe operating spaces in the context of a changing climate and growing social-ecological challenges is critical to creating the societal demand and political will required to motivate deep transformations. Answering questions on how the needed transformational change can be achieved will require actively setting and testing hypotheses to refine and characterize our concepts of safer spaces for social-ecological systems across scales. This effort will demand prioritizing key

  5. Climate-agriculture interactions and needs for policy making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phillips, J. G.

    2010-12-01

    Research exploring climate change interactions with agriculture has evolved from simplistic “delta T” simulation experiments with crop models to work highlighting the importance of climate variability and extreme events, which characterized the negative impacts possible if no adaptation occurred. There soon followed consideration of socioeconomic factors allowing for adaptive strategies that are likely to mitigate the worst case outcomes originally projected. At the same time, improved understanding of biophysical feedbacks has led to a greater recognition of the role that agriculture plays in modifying climate, with a great deal of attention recently paid to strategies to enhance carbon sequestration in agricultural systems. Advances in models of biogeochemical cycling applied to agronomic systems have allowed for new insights into greenhouse gas emissions and sinks associated with current, conventional farming systems. Yet this work is still relatively simplistic in that it seldom addresses interactions between climate dynamics, adoption of mitigation strategies, and feedbacks to the climate system and the surrounding environment. In order for agricultural policy to be developed that provides incentives for appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies over the next 50 years, a systems approach needs to be utilized that addresses feedbacks and interactions at field, farm and regional scales in a broader environmental context. Interactions between carbon and climate constraints on the one hand, and environmental impacts related to water, nutrient runoff, and pest control all imply a transformation of farming practices that is as of yet not well defined. Little attention has been paid to studying the implications of “alternative” farming strategies such as organic systems, intensive rotational grazing of livestock, or increases in the perennial component of farmscapes, all of which may be necessary responses to energy and other environmental constraints

  6. Agricultural Adaptations to Climate Changes in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Lobell, D. B.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.

    2014-12-01

    Agricultural production in West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change and a fast growing demand for food adds yet another challenge. Assessing possible adaptation strategies of crop production in West Africa under climate change is thus critical for ensuring regional food security and improving human welfare. Our previous efforts have identified as the main features of climate change in West Africa a robust increase in temperature and a complex shift in the rainfall pattern (i.e. seasonality delay and total amount change). Unaddressed, these robust climate changes would reduce regional crop production by up to 20%. In the current work, we use two well-validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to comprehensively assess different crop adaptation options under future climate scenarios. Particularly, we assess adaptations in both the choice of crop types and management strategies. The expected outcome of this study is to provide West Africa with region-specific adaptation recommendations that take into account both climate variability and climate change.

  7. Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resources, extend modeling to higher resolutions and include significantly more crops and geographical regions with different weather and climate conditions

  8. Global agricultural intensification during climate change: a role for genomics.

    PubMed

    Abberton, Michael; Batley, Jacqueline; Bentley, Alison; Bryant, John; Cai, Hongwei; Cockram, James; de Oliveira, Antonio Costa; Cseke, Leland J; Dempewolf, Hannes; De Pace, Ciro; Edwards, David; Gepts, Paul; Greenland, Andy; Hall, Anthony E; Henry, Robert; Hori, Kiyosumi; Howe, Glenn Thomas; Hughes, Stephen; Humphreys, Mike; Lightfoot, David; Marshall, Athole; Mayes, Sean; Nguyen, Henry T; Ogbonnaya, Francis C; Ortiz, Rodomiro; Paterson, Andrew H; Tuberosa, Roberto; Valliyodan, Babu; Varshney, Rajeev K; Yano, Masahiro

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is now facing the 'perfect storm' of climate change, increasing costs of fertilizer and rising food demands from a larger and wealthier human population. These factors point to a global food deficit unless the efficiency and resilience of crop production is increased. The intensification of agriculture has focused on improving production under optimized conditions, with significant agronomic inputs. Furthermore, the intensive cultivation of a limited number of crops has drastically narrowed the number of plant species humans rely on. A new agricultural paradigm is required, reducing dependence on high inputs and increasing crop diversity, yield stability and environmental resilience. Genomics offers unprecedented opportunities to increase crop yield, quality and stability of production through advanced breeding strategies, enhancing the resilience of major crops to climate variability, and increasing the productivity and range of minor crops to diversify the food supply. Here we review the state of the art of genomic-assisted breeding for the most important staples that feed the world, and how to use and adapt such genomic tools to accelerate development of both major and minor crops with desired traits that enhance adaptation to, or mitigate the effects of climate change. PMID:26360509

  9. Prehispanic agriculture and climate on the Pacific slope of Guatemala

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Connolly, Elizabeth Wilcut

    The relationship between agriculture and social complexity is a complicated one through both time and space; this is no less true in prehispanic Mesoamerica. Human occupation of the Pacific Coast of Gualtemala prior to Spanish contact was affected by humans' relationship with their physical environment, including the vegetation and climate. I examined multiple lines of evidence, including phytolith, pollen, and settlement data, seeking to detect changes within the paleoenviromental, paleoclimatic, and socio-cultural records from the Middle and Late Formative (1000 BC to AD 150) through the Classic (AD 150 to 600) and Post-Classic (ca. AD 1000) periods. This work reveals that social complexity on the Pacific Slope of Gualtemala developed alongside agricultural intensification. More significantly, however, it also reveals that while there was a population "collapse" on the Pacific Slope at the end of the Late Formative period, there was not the correlating drought or decline in agriculture seen in other areas of the Maya homeland.

  10. Resource Guide to Educational Materials about Agriculture: A Project of Agriculture in the Classroom.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC. Agriculture in the Classroom Program.

    Over 200 print and audiovisual materials which promote understanding of the importance of agriculture are described in this resource guide for teachers. Items which have been developed specifically for classroom use are described in addition to a large number of general informational materials which could be adapted according to classroom needs.…

  11. Adaptation potential of European agriculture in response to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, Frances C.; Lobell, David B.

    2014-07-01

    Projecting the impacts of climate change on agriculture requires knowing or assuming how farmers will adapt. However, empirical estimates of the effectiveness of this private adaptation are scarce and the sensitivity of impact assessments to adaptation assumptions is not well understood. Here we assess the potential effectiveness of private farmer adaptation in Europe by jointly estimating both short-run and long-run response functions using time-series and cross-sectional variation in subnational yield and profit data. The difference between the impacts of climate change projected using the short-run (limited adaptation) and long-run (substantial adaptation) response curves can be interpreted as the private adaptation potential. We find high adaptation potential for maize to future warming but large negative effects and only limited adaptation potential for wheat and barley. Overall, agricultural profits could increase slightly under climate change if farmers adapt but could decrease in many areas if there is no adaptation. Decomposing the variance in 2040 projected yields and farm profits using an ensemble of 13 climate model runs, we find that the rate at which farmers will adapt to rising temperatures is an important source of uncertainty.

  12. Agricultural Climate Services Planning and Engagement in the Midwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kluck, D.

    2009-12-01

    Agribusiness and related industries in the Midwest are dominant influences on the regional economy, politics and the livelihoods of many communities. The successes and failures of crops and commodities markets in this area, often referred to as the “Corn Belt”, has a disproportionate effect globally in terms of food and energy production. Agribusiness in the Midwest is proud of the fact that they “feed the world” and have some of the highest output per acre of row crops on Earth. In spite of attempts to lessen the impact of climate (irrigation, genetic manipulation, etc…) it remains one of the most influential inputs to crop success. Thus, early warning of climate events and repercussions from climate change are increasingly important for preparedness, sustainability and adaptation. Drought, floods, heat, cold, early/late freeze, disease and invasive species all serve as major factors for this sector. Recognizing the importance of these impacts, NOAA and its partners plan to continue a discussion on the needs of critical information for agricultural decision makers. NOAA and its partners are eager to understand the climate information priorities within the agricultural community so it can determine where effort and support should go to address the gaps. This September 9-10th NOAA will convene experts from NOAA, Illinois-Indiana Sea Grant, USDA-CSREES (Extension Services), academia, state climate offices, Regional Climate Centers, and others to determine a possible path for such services. This meeting will follow on from the “Corn and Climate Workshop” which began this discussion last September (2008). This will be a first for regional climate services planning meetings in the Midwest. A plethora of possible inputs and outcomes are anticipated from the meeting. One of the goals is to collect and prioritize actionable suggestions from a variety of sources before and during the two-day session. From this list, meeting participants will discuss and

  13. Simulating climate change effects in a Minnesota agricultural watershed

    SciTech Connect

    Hanratty, M.P.; Stefan, H.G.

    1998-11-01

    The effect of climate change on quality and quantity of runoff from a northern, agricultural watershed was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, 1996 Version (SWAT96). SWAT`s snow evaporation submodel was modified. SWAT was calibrated using water quality and quantity data measured in the Cottonwood River near New ULM, MN. The standard errors after calibration were 3.31 mm, 157 kg/d, 752 kg/d, 3744 kg/d, and 85 t/d for mean monthly streamflow, P yield, ammonia (NH{sub 3})/organic N yield, nitrate (NO{sub 3}) yield, and sediment yield, respectively. The standard error for monthly streamflow was 9.62 mm. SWAT96 was then used to simulate the effect on the Cottonwood River watershed of a 2xCO{sub 2} climate scenario, obtained from the Canadian Climate Center`s global circulation model. Assuming land cover and land management remained constant, SWAT96 projected a decrease in mean annual streamflow, P yield, NH{sub 3}/organic N yield, NO{sub 3}/nitrate (NO{sub 2}) yield, and sediment yield. Mean monthly values changed significantly for many months of the year under the 2xCO{sub 2} climate scenario. The standard errors in SWATs baseline simulations, however, were too high for the simulated climate change effects to be measurable for NO{sub 3}/NO{sub 2} and sediment yields. The model assumptions and calibration methods used to obtain the accuracy required for simulating the effects of climate change lead to the conclusions that land use/land cover and land management practices are likely to have a greater impact on water quality than climate change and that SWAT must be calibrated to be used for climate change analysis.

  14. Invisible water, visible impact: groundwater use and Indian agriculture under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaveri, Esha; Grogan, Danielle S.; Fisher-Vanden, Karen; Frolking, Steve; Lammers, Richard B.; Wrenn, Douglas H.; Prusevich, Alexander; Nicholas, Robert E.

    2016-08-01

    India is one of the world’s largest food producers, making the sustainability of its agricultural system of global significance. Groundwater irrigation underpins India’s agriculture, currently boosting crop production by enough to feed 170 million people. Groundwater overexploitation has led to drastic declines in groundwater levels, threatening to push this vital resource out of reach for millions of small-scale farmers who are the backbone of India’s food security. Historically, losing access to groundwater has decreased agricultural production and increased poverty. We take a multidisciplinary approach to assess climate change challenges facing India’s agricultural system, and to assess the effectiveness of large-scale water infrastructure projects designed to meet these challenges. We find that even in areas that experience climate change induced precipitation increases, expansion of irrigated agriculture will require increasing amounts of unsustainable groundwater. The large proposed national river linking project has limited capacity to alleviate groundwater stress. Thus, without intervention, poverty and food insecurity in rural India is likely to worsen.

  15. Agricultural ecosystem effects on trace gases and global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-01-01

    Global climate change is an issue that has been thrust to the forefront of scientific, political, and general community interest. In the span of this human generation, the earth's climate is expected to change more rapidly than it has over any comparable period of recorded history. Some of the changes will result from natural processes, beyond human control, but much of this change is subject to anthropogenic influence arising from processes that are only beginning to be understood. Increasing concentrations of atmospheric radiatively active trace gases are being inadvertently affected by fossil fuel combustion; but other activities of industry, agriculture, forestry, changing land-use practices, waste disposal, and transportation also affect the chemical composition of the atmosphere. The measured and projected changes of the atmospheric concentrations of radiatively active trace gases have been modeled and estimated to predict changes in the global climate. Accuracy and reliability of these predictions are the subject of considerable debate among scientists and other concerned individuals, groups, and governmental agencies throughout the world. The objective of this book is to provide a review of current knowledge on the measurement of radiatively active trace gases in agricultural ecosystems and the effect of agriculture on the atmospheric concentrations of these gases. This book is compiled from written papers presented at a symposium entitled, Agroecosystem Effects on Radiatively Important Trace Gases and Global Climate Change, held at the American Society of Agronomy Meetings in Denver, CO, 27 Oct.-1 Nov. 1991. Fourteen chapters have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases.

  16. The impact of climate change on the water resource

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perac, Marija Å.; Grgurevac, Anamarija

    2010-05-01

    The EU has defined dangerous climate change as an increase in 2 degrees Celsius of average global temperatures. Rising global temperatures will lead to an intensification of hydrological cycle, resulting in dryer dry season, and subsequently heightened risk of more extreme and frequent floods and drought. Climate change is caused by greenhouse gasses ( GHGs), which enhance the " greenhouse " properties of the earth's atmosphere. These gasses allow solar radiation from the sun to travel through the atmosphere but prevent the reflected heat from escaping back into space. This causes the earth's temperature to rise. Changing climate will also have significant impacts on the availability of water as well as the quality of water that is available and accessible. Possibly, climate change magnificent impact at water cycles in Croatia. It means more droughts, it will have impact in agriculture and natural systems, specially swamp areas. Also, it will be come to reduction river flows, and maybe lower underground water level which used for water supply. Climate change can be impact on intensity of floods and quality/quantity of water.Successes of climate change in Croatia are: decrease volume of precipitation at whole state area; long drought years directly water quantity for irrigation; decreasing drinking water. Ponder able for next 40 years mean temperature will be increase for 2,5 C. It assumes that sea level will be increase at 65 - 100 cm. It will be endanger cities and settlements besides coast ( cities: Split, Zadar; west coast of Istra; delta of Neretva; islands: Krk, Cres, Lošinj…). Suggestions for next activities: monitoring and notation hydro meteorological information's; account impact of climate change on the: evaporation, drain, water balance, water management activity, make a region impact study of a possibly account on the water resources. Maintaining and development of water resources and agrotehnical systems and application water management strategy

  17. Climate change: evaluating your local and regional water resources

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Thorne, James H.

    2015-01-01

    The BCM is a fine-scale hydrologic model that uses detailed maps of soils, geology, topography, and transient monthly or daily maps of potential evapotranspiration, air temperature, and precipitation to generate maps of recharge, runoff, snow pack, actual evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit. With these comprehensive environmental inputs and experienced scientific analysis, the BCM provides resource managers with important hydrologic and ecologic understanding of a landscape or basin at hillslope to regional scales. The model is calibrated using historical climate and streamflow data over the range of geologic materials specific to an area. Once calibrated, the model is used to translate climate-change data into hydrologic responses for a defined landscape, to provide managers an understanding of potential ecological risks and threats to water supplies and managed hydrologic systems. Although limited to estimates of unimpaired hydrologic conditions, estimates of impaired conditions, such as agricultural demand, diversions, or reservoir outflows can be incorporated into the calibration of the model to expand its utility. Additionally, the model can be linked to other models, such as groundwater-flow models (that is, MODFLOW) or the integrated hydrologic model (MF-FMP), to provide information about subsurface hydrologic processes. The model can be applied at a relatively small scale, but also can be applied to large-scale national and international river basins.

  18. Climate Change Impacts on North Dakota: Agriculture and Hydrology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kirilenko, Andrei; Zhang, Xiaodong; Lim, Yeo Howe; Teng, William L.

    2011-01-01

    North Dakota is one of the principal producers of agricultural commodities in the USA, including over half of the total spring wheat production. While the region includes some of the best agricultural lands in the world, the steep temperature and precipitation gradients also make it one of the most sensitive to climate change. Over the 20th century, both the temperature and the pattern of precipitation in the state have changed; one of the most dramatic examples of the consequences of this change is the Devils Lake flooding. In two studies, we estimated the climate change impacts on crop yields and on the hydrology of the Devils Lake basin. The projections of six GCMs, driven by three SRES scenarios were statistically downscaled for multiple locations throughout the state, for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s climate. Averaged over all GCMs, there is a small increase in precipitation, by 0.6 - 1.1% in 2020s, 3.1 - 3.5% in 2050s, and 3.0 - 7.6% in 2080s. This change in precipitation varies with the seasons, with cold seasons becoming wetter and warm seasons not changing.

  19. Impacts of climate change on water resources in southern Africa: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kusangaya, Samuel; Warburton, Michele L.; Archer van Garderen, Emma; Jewitt, Graham P. W.

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that there is consensus that the increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases will result in climate change which will cause the sea level to rise, increased frequency of extreme climatic events including intense storms, heavy rainfall events and droughts. This will increase the frequency of climate-related hazards, causing loss of life, social disruption and economic hardships. There is less consensus on the magnitude of change of climatic variables, but several studies have shown that climate change will impact on the availability and demand for water resources. In southern Africa, climate change is likely to affect nearly every aspect of human well-being, from agricultural productivity and energy use to flood control, municipal and industrial water supply to wildlife management, since the region is characterised by highly spatial and temporally variable rainfall and, in some cases, scarce water resources. Vulnerability is exacerbated by the region's low adaptive capacity, widespread poverty and low technology uptake. This paper reviews the potential impacts of climate change on water resources in southern Africa. The outcomes of this review include highlighting studies on detected climate changes particularly focusing on temperature and rainfall. Additionally, the impacts of climate change are highlighted, and respective studies on hydrological responses to climate change are examined. The review also discusses the challenges in climate change impact analysis, which inevitably represents existing research and knowledge gaps. Finally the paper concludes by outlining possible research areas in the realm of climate change impacts on water resources, particularly knowledge gaps in uncertainty analysis for both climate change and hydrological modelling.

  20. Climate Change and Agricultural Sustainability - A Global Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, X.; Zhang, X.

    2012-12-01

    This study provides a spatially explicit estimate of climate change impact on world-wide agricultural sustainability, considering uncertainty in climate change projections. The potential changes in agricultural land and crop water requirement and availability are assessed by region in the world. Uncertainty in General Circulation Model (GCM) projections is addressed using data assembled from a number of GCMs and representative emission scenarios. Erroneous data and the uncertain nature of land classifications based on multiple indices (i.e., soil properties, land slope, temperature, and humidity) are handled with fuzzy logic modeling. It is found that global arable land area is likely to be affected by emission scenarios, for example, it may decrease by 0.8% ~ 1.7% under scenario A1B (CO2-equivalent GHG concentrations of 850 ppmv) but increase by 2.0% ~ 4.4% under scenario B1 (CO2-equivalent GHG concentrations of 600 ppmv, which represents a greener economy than A1B). However, at the regional scale, although the magnitudes of the projected changes vary by scenario, the increasing or decreasing trends in arable land area are consistent: Regions with relative high latitudes - Russia, China and the U.S. - could see a significant increase in arable land in coming years, but South America, Africa, Europe and India could lose land area. For agricultural water use, the following questions are addressed: Where will there be a need for irrigation expansion and by how much? Where and how much of current irrigation pressures or water deficits for rainfed crops can be mitigated or aggravated? And finally, what is the overall situation for the entire world? It is found that despite the universally rising mean temperature, the global irrigation requirements are likely to decrease. This is probably due to the declining diurnal temperature range, which plays a key role in the evapotranspiration control, as well as the increasing precipitation in many areas contributing to the

  1. Agricultural Impacts on Water Resources: Recommendations for Successful Applied Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harmel, D.

    2014-12-01

    We, as water resource professionals, are faced with a truly monumental challenge - that is feeding the world's growing population and ensuring it has an adequate supply of clean water. As researchers and educators it is good for us to regularly remember that our research and outreach efforts are critical to people around the world, many of whom are desperate for solutions to water quality and supply problems and their impacts on food supply, land management, and ecosystem protection. In this presentation, recommendations for successful applied research on agricultural impacts on water resources will be provided. The benefits of building multidisciplinary teams will be illustrated with examples related to the development and world-wide application of the ALMANAC, SWAT, and EPIC/APEX models. The value of non-traditional partnerships will be shown by the Soil Health Partnership, a coalition of agricultural producers, chemical and seed companies, and environmental advocacy groups. The results of empowering decision-makers with useful data will be illustrated with examples related to bacteria source and transport data and the MANAGE database, which contains runoff nitrogen and phosphorus data for cultivated, pasture, and forest land uses. The benefits of focusing on sustainable solutions will be shown through examples of soil testing, fertilizers application, on-farm profit analysis, and soil health assessment. And the value of welcoming criticism will be illustrated by the development of a framework to estimate and publish uncertainty in measured discharge and water quality data. The good news for researchers is that the agricultural industry is faced with profitability concerns and the need to wisely utilize soil and water resources, and simultaneously state and federal agencies crave sound-science to improve decision making, policy, and regulation. Thus, the audience for and beneficiaries of agricultural research are ready and hungry for applied research results.

  2. Climate change: Effects on reef island resources

    SciTech Connect

    Oberdorfer, J.A.; Buddemeier, R.W.

    1988-06-27

    The salinity, depth, quantity, and reliability of fresh groundwater resources on coral reef islands and coastlines are environmentally important parameters. Groundwater influences or controls the terrestrial flora, salinity, and nutrient levels in the near-shore benthic environment, the rate and nature of sediment diagenesis, and the density of human habitation. Data from a number of Indo-Pacific reef islands suggest that freshwater inventory is a function of rainfall and island dimensions. A numerical model (SUTRA) has been used to simulate the responses of atoll island groundwater to changes in recharge (precipitation), sea level, and loss of island area due to flooding. The model has been calibrated for Enjebi Island, Enewetak Atoll, where a moderately permeable, water-table aquifer overlies a high-permeability formation. Total freshwater inventory is a monotonic but nonlinear function of recharge. If recharge and island area are constant, rising sea level increases the inventory of fresh water by increasing the useful volume of the aquifer above the high-permeability zone. Flooding of land area reduces the total freshwater inventory approximately in proportion to the loss of recharge area. The most significant results of the model simulation, however, are the findings that the inventory of low-salinity water (and by extrapolation, potable water) is disproportionately sensitive to changes in recharge, island dimensions, or recharge. Island freshwater resources may therefore be unexpectedly vulnerable to climate change.

  3. Conjunctive use of water resources for sustainable irrigated agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Ajay

    2014-11-01

    The continuous increase in global population and simultaneous decrease in good quality water resources emphasizes the need of using surface water and groundwater resources conjunctively for irrigation. The conjunctive use allows the utilization of poor quality water, which cannot be used as such for the crop production due to its harmful effect on soil and crop health. This paper presents an overview on issues and methods of the conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater resources for sustainable irrigated agriculture. The background of the conjunctive water use and its applications for the management of poor quality water and management of rising watertable are presented. The management of conjunctive water use through the computer-based models is also covered in this review. The advantages and disadvantages of the approach have been described. Conclusions are provided based on this review which could be useful for all the stakeholders.

  4. Integrating agricultural policies and water policies under water supply and climate uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MejíAs, Patricia; Varela-Ortega, Consuelo; Flichman, Guillermo

    2004-07-01

    Understanding the interactions of water and agricultural policies is crucial for achieving an efficient management of water resources. In the EU, agricultural and environmental policies are seeking to converge progressively toward mutually compatible objectives and, in this context, the recently reformed Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the EU Water Framework Directive constitute the policy framework in which irrigated agriculture and hence water use will evolve. In fact, one of the measures of the European Water Directive is to establish a water pricing policy for improving water use and attaining a more efficient water allocation. The aim of this research is to investigate the irrigators' responses to these changing policy developments in a self-managed irrigation district in southern Spain. A stochastic programming model has been developed to estimate farmers' response to the application of water pricing policies in different agricultural policy scenarios when water availability is subject to varying climate conditions and water storage capacity in the district's reservoir. Results show that irrigators are price-responsive, but a similar water-pricing policy in different agricultural policy options could have distinct effects on water use, farmers' income, and collected revenue by the water authority. Water availability is a critical factor, and pricing policies are less effective for reducing water consumption in drought years. Thus there is a need to integrate the objectives of water policies within the objectives of the CAP programs to avoid distortion effects and to seek synergy between these two policies.

  5. Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlenker, Wolfram; Lobell, David B.

    2010-01-01

    There is widespread interest in the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and on the most effective investments to assist adaptation to these changes, yet the scientific basis for estimating production risks and prioritizing investments has been quite limited. Here we show that by combining historical crop production and weather data into a panel analysis, a robust model of yield response to climate change emerges for several key African crops. By mid-century, the mean estimates of aggregate production changes in SSA under our preferred model specification are - 22, - 17, - 17, - 18, and - 8% for maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut, and cassava, respectively. In all cases except cassava, there is a 95% probability that damages exceed 7%, and a 5% probability that they exceed 27%. Moreover, countries with the highest average yields have the largest projected yield losses, suggesting that well-fertilized modern seed varieties are more susceptible to heat related losses.

  6. Climate adaptation as mitigation: the case of agricultural investments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobell, David B.; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Hertel, Thomas W.

    2013-03-01

    Successful adaptation of agriculture to ongoing climate changes would help to maintain productivity growth and thereby reduce pressure to bring new lands into agriculture. In this paper we investigate the potential co-benefits of adaptation in terms of the avoided emissions from land use change. A model of global agricultural trade and land use, called SIMPLE, is utilized to link adaptation investments, yield growth rates, land conversion rates, and land use emissions. A scenario of global adaptation to offset negative yield impacts of temperature and precipitation changes to 2050, which requires a cumulative 225 billion USD of additional investment, results in 61 Mha less conversion of cropland and 15 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) fewer emissions by 2050. Thus our estimates imply an annual mitigation co-benefit of 0.35 GtCO2e yr-1 while spending 15 per tonne CO2e of avoided emissions. Uncertainty analysis is used to estimate a 5-95% confidence interval around these numbers of 0.25-0.43 Gt and 11-22 per tonne CO2e. A scenario of adaptation focused only on Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, while less costly in aggregate, results in much smaller mitigation potentials and higher per tonne costs. These results indicate that although investing in the least developed areas may be most desirable for the main objectives of adaptation, it has little net effect on mitigation because production gains are offset by greater rates of land clearing in the benefited regions, which are relatively low yielding and land abundant. Adaptation investments in high yielding, land scarce regions such as Asia and North America are more effective for mitigation. To identify data needs, we conduct a sensitivity analysis using the Morris method (Morris 1991 Technometrics 33 161-74). The three most critical parameters for improving estimates of mitigation potential are (in descending order) the emissions factors for converting land to agriculture, the price elasticity of land supply

  7. The effects of climate change on Midwestern agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gosselin, Nichole A.

    Changes in climate are likely to impact future Midwestern agriculture. This study investigates changes in Midwestern crop yield and soil carbon in the future and the sensitivity of these variables to changes in individual climate parameters. The use of a bias correction technique on regional climate model precipitation and temperature data that is used as input into both a crop model and a soil nutrient cycling model is investigated. Systematic model biases are found in climate models and removing these biases using local observations can improve results when the data is used as input into crop and soil models. A quantile mapping bias correction technique, using the University of Washington's (UW) gridded precipitation and temperature as an observation reference is applied to NARCCAP's CRCM/CGCM3 daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures. Bias correction removed error in past average yearly soybean and maize yield for Ames, IA by 110% and 6%, respectively. From the past (1968-1997) to the future (2040-2069) time period, maize yield decreased by 36.5%, while soybean yield increased by 1.2%. Maize yield was particularly sensitive to days above 95F, while soybean yield was most sensitive to seasonal precipitation and growing season length of the climate parameters investigated. Projections of soil carbon, net primary productivity (NPP) and soil carbon respiration were investigated using the Daycent model. When averaged over the Midewestern domain, NPP, CO2 respiration and soil carbon all increased in the future. Removing the biases from the climate model changed the output for all three variables significantly.

  8. Climate change, agricultural insecticide exposure, and risk for freshwater communities.

    PubMed

    Kattwinkel, Mira; Kühne, Jan-Valentin; Foit, Kaarina; Liess, Matthias

    2011-09-01

    Climate change exerts direct effects on ecosystems but has additional indirect effects due to changes in agricultural practice. These include the increased use of pesticides, changes in the areas that are cultivated, and changes in the crops cultivated. It is well known that pesticides, and in particular insecticides, affect aquatic ecosystems adversely. To implement effective mitigation measures it is necessary to identify areas that are affected currently and those that will be affected in the future. As a consequence, we predicted potential exposure to insecticide (insecticide runoff potential, RP) under current conditions (1990) and under a model scenario of future climate and land use (2090) using a spatially explicit model on a continental scale, with a focus on Europe. Space-for-time substitution was used to predict future levels of insecticide application, intensity of agricultural land use, and cultivated crops. To assess the indirect effects of climate change, evaluation of the risk of insecticide exposure was based on a trait-based, climate-insensitive indicator system (SPEAR, SPEcies At Risk). To this end, RP and landscape characteristics that are relevant for the recovery of affected populations were combined to estimate the ecological risk (ER) of insecticides for freshwater communities. We predicted a strong increase in the application of, and aquatic exposure to, insecticides under the future scenario, especially in central and northern Europe. This, in turn, will result in a severe increase in ER in these regions. Hence, the proportion of stream sites adjacent to arable land that do not meet the requirements for good ecological status as defined by the EU Water Framework Directive will increase (from 33% to 39% for the EU-25 countries), in particular in the Scandinavian and Baltic countries (from 6% to 19%). Such spatially explicit mapping of risk enables the planning of adaptation and mitigation strategies including vegetated buffer strips and

  9. Climate change impacts on North Dakota: agriculture and hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirilenko, A.; Zhang, X.; Lim, Y.; Teng, W. L.

    2011-12-01

    North Dakota is one of the principal producers of agricultural commodities in the USA, including over half of the total spring wheat production. While the region includes some of the best agricultural lands in the world, the steep temperature and precipitation gradients also make it one of the most sensitive to climate change. Over the 20th century, both the temperature and the pattern of precipitation in the state have changed. One of the most dramatic examples of the consequences of this change is the Devils Lake flooding. Devils Lake is a terminal lake with a surface area of about 500 km2 in a 9,867 km2 closed watershed, located in the northeastern part of the state. The recent changes in climate interrupted the 5-7 year long wet/dry cycle, resulting in a persistently wet state. The change in the water balance has led to a substantial increase in the lake level from 427.0 m in 1940 to 434.6 m in 1993 to 443.2 m in 2011. The resulting flooding has threatened the local communities, costing $450 million in mitigation efforts thus far. If the elevation reaches 444.4 m, the saline, eutrophic lake will naturally spill into the Sheyenne River, eventually flowing into Lake Winnipeg. In two studies, we estimated the climate change impacts on crop yields and on the hydrology of the Devils Lake basin. The projections of six GCMs, driven by three SRES scenarios were statistically downscaled for eight different locations throughout the state, for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s climate. Averaged over all GCMs, there is a small increase in precipitation, by 0.6 - 1.1% in 2020s, 3.1 - 3.5% in 2050s, and 3.0 - 7.6% in 2080s. This change in precipitation varies with the seasons, with cold seasons becoming wetter and warm seasons not changing. For projections of climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Devils Lake basin, we additionally used the information on the spatial distribution of precipitation over the basin from the NASA TRMM TMPA 3B42-V6 product, which combines

  10. Biophysical impacts of climate-smart agriculture in the Midwest United States

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The potential impacts of climate change in the Midwest United States present unprecedented challenges to regional agriculture. In response to these challenges, a variety of climate-smart agricultural methodologies have been proposed to retain or improve crop yields, reduce agricultural greenhouse ga...

  11. Effects of adjusting cropping systems on utilization efficiency of climatic resources in Northeast China under future climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Jianping; Zhao, Junfang; Xu, Yanhong; Chu, Zheng; Mu, Jia; Zhao, Qian

    , respectively. Additionally, compared with spring maize, the average utilization efficiencies of thermal resources of winter wheat and summer maize dramatically increased by 9.2%, 12.1% and 12.0%, respectively. The increases in the average utilization efficiencies of precipitation resources of winter wheat and summer maize were 1.78 kg hm-2 mm-1, 2.07 kg hm-2 mm-1 and 1.92 kg hm-2 mm-1 during 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, respectively. Our findings highlight that adjusting cropping systems can dominantly contribute to utilization efficiency increases of agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China in the future.

  12. Improving Agricultural Water Resources Management Using Ground-based Infrared Thermometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taghvaeian, S.

    2014-12-01

    Irrigated agriculture is the largest user of freshwater resources in arid/semi-arid parts of the world. Meeting rapidly growing demands in food, feed, fiber, and fuel while minimizing environmental pollution under a changing climate requires significant improvements in agricultural water management and irrigation scheduling. Although recent advances in remote sensing techniques and hydrological modeling has provided valuable information on agricultural water resources and their management, real improvements will only occur if farmers, the decision makers on the ground, are provided with simple, affordable, and practical tools to schedule irrigation events. This presentation reviews efforts in developing methods based on ground-based infrared thermometry and thermography for day-to-day management of irrigation systems. The results of research studies conducted in Colorado and Oklahoma show that ground-based remote sensing methods can be used effectively in quantifying water stress and consequently triggering irrigation events. Crop water use estimates based on stress indices have also showed to be in good agreement with estimates based on other methods (e.g. surface energy balance, root zone soil water balance, etc.). Major challenges toward the adoption of this approach by agricultural producers include the reduced accuracy under cloudy and humid conditions and its inability to forecast irrigation date, which is a critical knowledge since many irrigators need to decide about irrigations a few days in advance.

  13. Neolithic agriculture, freshwater resources and rapid environmental changes on the lower Yangtze, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, Jungan; Taylor, David; Atahan, Pia; Zhang, Xinrong; Wu, Guoxuan; Dodson, John; Zheng, Hongbo; Itzstein-Davey, Freea

    2011-01-01

    Analyses of sedimentary evidence in the form of spores, pollen, freshwater algae, dinoflagellate cysts, phytoliths and charcoal from AMS 14C-dated, Holocene-aged sequences provide an excellent opportunity to examine the responses of Neolithic agriculturalists in the lower Yangtze to changing environments. Evidence from two sites close to the southern margin of the Yangtze delta and separated by what is now Hangzhou Bay attests the critical importance to early attempts at food production of access to freshwater resources. More readily, if episodically, available freshwater resources during the early to mid-Holocene on the Hangjiahu plain may have encouraged an early reliance on rice-based agriculture, which in turn facilitated the accumulation of agricultural surpluses and cultural diversification. Cultural change was relatively attenuated and human population pressures possibly lower on the Ningshao plain, seemingly because of much more profound environmental impacts of variations in local hydrological conditions, and because predominantly saline conditions, associated with rising relative sea level, hampered the early development of irrigated agriculture. The evidence, although largely dating to the early and middle parts of the Holocene, provides a timely warning of the complexity of vulnerability to climate change-induced processes of agriculture, and indeed human activities more generally, on megadeltas in Asia.

  14. Water limited agriculture in Africa: Climate change sensitivity of large scale land investments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rulli, M. C.; D'Odorico, P.; Chiarelli, D. D.; Davis, K. F.

    2015-12-01

    The past few decades have seen unprecedented changes in the global agricultural system with a dramatic increase in the rates of food production fueled by an escalating demand for food calories, as a result of demographic growth, dietary changes, and - more recently - new bioenergy policies. Food prices have become consistently higher and increasingly volatile with dramatic spikes in 2007-08 and 2010-11. The confluence of these factors has heightened demand for land and brought a wave of land investment to the developing world: some of the more affluent countries are trying to secure land rights in areas suitable for agriculture. According to some estimates, to date, roughly 38 million hectares have been acquired worldwide by large scale investors, 16 million of which in Africa. More than 85% of large scale land acquisitions in Africa are by foreign investors. Many land deals are motivated not only by the need for fertile land but for the water resources required for crop production. Despite some recent assessments of the water appropriation associated with large scale land investments, their impact on the water resources of the target countries under present conditions and climate change scenarios remains poorly understood. Here we investigate irrigation water requirements by various crops planted in the acquired land as an indicator of the pressure likely placed by land investors on ("blue") water resources of target regions in Africa and evaluate the sensitivity to climate changes scenarios.

  15. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    SciTech Connect

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  16. Are the Discharge Changes in an Agricultural Watershed in Iowa Driven by Changes in Climate or Agriculture?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Villarini, G.; Strong, A.

    2013-12-01

    River discharge represents a vital resource for many human activities. The improved understanding of the physical processes controlling its regime can lead to large economic and societal benefits, such as improved flood warning and mitigation, and improved water management during droughts. This is particularly true for the agricultural U.S. Midwest, and Iowa more specifically. Iowa is relentlessly plagued by catastrophic flooding, with the spring and summer river floods of 1993 and 2008 and the drought of 2012 being the most recent widespread event affecting the state. These natural disasters also come with a very large price tag, both in terms of economic damage and number of fatalities. During the 20th and 21st centuries, discharge over this area has been changing on a number of temporal scales, from annual to decadal. An outstanding question is whether this variability is related to changes in the climate system or to changes in land use/land cover and agricultural practices. We address this question by developing statistical models to describe the changes in different parts of the discharge distribution. We use rainfall and predictors related to agricultural practices to explain the observed streamflow variability. We focus on the Raccoon River at Van Meter, which is a 9000-km2 watershed with daily discharge measurements covering most of the 20th century up to the present. Our results indicate that variability in the climate system is responsible for the majority of the changes observed in the discharge records. Moreover, the relative contribution of rainfall in explaining the changes in streamflow increases as we move toward the upper tail of the distribution.

  17. Prospective changes in irrigation water requirements caused by agricultural expansion and climate changes in the eastern arc mountains of Kenya.

    PubMed

    Maeda, Eduardo Eiji; Pellikka, Petri K E; Clark, Barnaby J F; Siljander, Mika

    2011-03-01

    Water resources and land use are closely linked with each other and with regional climate, assembling a very complex system. The understanding of the interconnecting relations involved in this system is an essential step for elaborating public policies that can effectively lead to the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, an integrated modelling framework was assembled in order to investigate potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate changes on Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR) in the Taita Hills, Kenya. The framework comprised a land use change simulation model, a reference evapotranspiration model and synthetic precipitation datasets generated through a Monte Carlo simulation. In order to generate plausible climate change scenarios, outputs from General Climate Models were used as reference to perturbing the Monte Carlo simulations. The results indicate that throughout the next 20 years the low availability of arable lands in the hills will drive agricultural expansion to areas with higher IWR in the foothills. If current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. This expansion will increase by approximately 40% the annual water volume necessary for irrigation. Climate change may slightly decrease crops' IWR in April and November by 2030, while in May a small increase will likely be observed. The integrated assessment of these environmental changes allowed a clear identification of priority regions for land use allocation policies and water resources management. PMID:21111528

  18. Water Resources and Sustainable Agriculture in 21st Century: Challenges and Opportunities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asrar, G.

    2008-05-01

    in genomic, genetics, breeding and applied biotechnologies are a key to our ability to address these challenges. We must also continue to develop agronomic practices that sustain the integrity of natural resources and conserve energy on one-hand while maximizing agricultural production per unit area of land on the other hand. This will require managing agricultural ecosystems for their multiple functions and services together, instead of looking at each function/service in isolation. In this presentation, we will provide an overview of the scientific and technical knowledge required for sustainable management of agricultural ecosystems and associated natural resources. We will describe the soil, water and energy research needs/priorities in agriculture. We will also provide some examples of recent accomplishments and future directions in developing decision support tools for assessing the impacts of weather and climate variations and change, and their risk to agricultural ecosystems. We will then focus on opportunities and challenges associated with measurement, monitoring and modeling of soil moisture and its use in management and operation of agricultural ecosystems. The overall intent of this presentation is to stimulate some discussion on future directions and priorities for soil, water and energy research in agricultural ecosystems, and how the knowledge we gain from this research can be conveyed to the users for risk assessment, decision making, and multi-service ecosystem management purposes.

  19. Water resources transfers through southern African food trade: water efficiency and climate signals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dalin, C.; Conway, D.

    2015-12-01

    Temporal and spatial variability of precipitation in Southern Africa is particularly high. The associated drought and flood risks, combined with a largely rainfed agriculture, pose a challenge for water and food security in this region. It is thus important to understand both how climate variability affects agricultural productivity and how intra- and extra-regional trade can contribute to the region's capacity to deal with climate-related shocks. We combine international food trade data and a global hydrological model to quantify the water resources embedded in international food trade in southern Africa and with the rest of the world, from 1986-2011. We analyze the impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic changes on agricultural trade and embedded water resources during that period. We find that regional food trade is efficient in terms of water resources but may be unsustainable because water-productive exporters, like South Africa, rely on increasingly scarce water resources. The role of imports from the rest of the world in the region's food supply is important, in particular during severe droughts. This reflects how trade can efficiently redistribute water resources across continents in response to a sudden gap in food production and water productivity. As regional collaboration strengthens through the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) and trade with other regions increases, our results point out opportunities for improved water-efficiency and sustainability of the region's food production via trade.

  20. Effects of tropical deforestation on climate and agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawrence, Deborah; Vandecar, Karen

    2015-01-01

    Tower, ground-based and satellite observations indicate that tropical deforestation results in warmer, drier conditions at the local scale. Understanding the regional or global impacts of deforestation on climate, and ultimately on agriculture, requires modelling. General circulation models show that completely deforesting the tropics could result in global warming equivalent to that caused by burning of fossil fuels since 1850, with more warming and considerable drying in the tropics. More realistic scenarios of deforestation yield less warming and less drying, suggesting critical thresholds beyond which rainfall is substantially reduced. In regional, mesoscale models that capture topography and vegetation-based discontinuities, small clearings can actually enhance rainfall. At this smaller scale as well, a critical deforestation threshold exists, beyond which rainfall declines. Future agricultural productivity in the tropics is at risk from a deforestation-induced increase in mean temperature and the associated heat extremes and from a decline in mean rainfall or rainfall frequency. Through teleconnections, negative impacts on agriculture could extend well beyond the tropics.

  1. The Implication of Water Resources Development and Climate Change on Tropical Lakes and Rivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Setegn, S.

    2013-12-01

    Assessing future water-availability and developing new management strategies in the presence of climate change is an important challenge in water resources planning and management. A major effect of climate change is likely to be alterations in hydrologic cycles and changes in water availability. Increased evaporation, combined with changes in precipitation, has the potential to affect runoff, the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts. The objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability of water resources for the changing climate and appropriate adaptation strategies. Assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources essentially involves taking projections of climatic variables at a global scale, downscaling global-scale climatic variables to local-scale hydrologic variables, and computing hydrological components for water resources variability and risk of hydrologic extremes. Time serious climate projections were generated by modifying the historical datasets to represent the changes in the GCM climatologies for three future time windows. Changes in streamflows and other hydrological components were investigated using the downscaled changes in temperature and precipitation. The direction of streamflow change followed mainly the direction of changes in rainfall. Many of the models show statistically-significant declines in mean annual flow for the different time-periods and scenarios. Climate change has the potential to cause shortage of agricultural water resources that contribute to a great agricultural drought. Appropriate adaptation strategies should be designed in order to avoid extreme disasters. The results from this study can contribute information to planers and policy makers, to assist them to appropriately design relevant adaptation strategy.

  2. Smallholder agriculture in India and adaptation to current and future climate variability and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Modeling studies have indicated that global warming, in many regions, will increase the exposure of major crops to rainfall and temperature stress, leading to lower crop yields. Climate variability alone has a potential to decrease yield to an extent comparable to or greater than yield reductions expected due to rising temperature. For India, where agriculture is important, both in terms of food security as well as a source of livelihoods to a majority of its population, climate variability and climate change are subjects of serious concern. There is however a need to distinguish the impact of current climate variability and climate change on Indian agriculture, especially in relation to their socioeconomic impact. This differentiation is difficult to determine due to the secular trend of increasing production and yield of the past several decades. The current research in this aspect is in an initial stage and requires a multi-disciplinary effort. In this study, we assess the potential differential impacts of environmental stress and shock across different socioeconomic strata of the rural population, using village level survey data. The survey data from eight selected villages, based on the Project on Agrarian Relations in India conducted by the Foundation for Agrarian Studies, indicated that income from crop production of the top 20 households (based on the extent of operational land holding, employment of hired labour and asset holdings) is a multiple of the mean income of the village. In sharp contrast, the income of the bottom 20 households is a fraction of the mean and sometimes negative, indicating a net loss from crop production. The considerable differentials in output and incomes suggest that small and marginal farmers are far more susceptible to climate variability and climate change than the other sections. Climate change is effectively an immediate threat to small and marginal farmers, which is driven essentially by socioeconomic conditions. The impact

  3. Impact of climate change on irrigation requirements in terms of groundwater resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Yu; Zwahlen, François; Wang, Yanxin; Li, Yilian

    2010-11-01

    Climate change affects not only water resources but also water demand for irrigation. A large proportion of the world’s agriculture depends on groundwater, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In several regions, aquifer resources face depletion. Groundwater recharge has been viewed as a by-product of irrigation return flow, and with climate change, aquifer storage of such flow will be vital. A general review, for a broad-based audience, is given of work on global warming and groundwater resources, summarizing the methods used to analyze the climate change scenarios and the influence of these predicted changes on groundwater resources around the world (especially the impact on regional groundwater resources and irrigation requirements). Future challenges of adapting to climate change are also discussed. Such challenges include water-resources depletion, increasing irrigation demand, reduced crop yield, and groundwater salinization. The adaptation to and mitigation of these effects is also reported, including useful information for water-resources managers and the development of sustainable groundwater irrigation methods. Rescheduling irrigation according to the season, coordinating the groundwater resources and irrigation demand, developing more accurate and complete modeling prediction methods, and managing the irrigation facilities in different ways would all be considered, based on the particular cases.

  4. AgBase: a functional genomics resource for agriculture

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Many agricultural species and their pathogens have sequenced genomes and more are in progress. However, systems biology from functional genomics data is hindered in agricultural species because agricultural genome sequences have relatively poor structural and functional annotation and agricultural ...

  5. Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brekke, Levi D.; Kiang, Julie E.; Olsen, J. Rolf; Pulwarty, Roger S.; Raff, David A.; Turnipseed, D. Phil; Webb, Robert S.; White, Kathleen D.

    2009-01-01

    Many challenges, including climate change, face the Nation's water managers. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has provided estimates of how climate may change, but more understanding of the processes driving the changes, the sequences of the changes, and the manifestation of these global changes at different scales could be beneficial. Since the changes will likely affect fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle, climate change may have a large impact on water resources and water resources managers. The purpose of this interagency report prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is to explore strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating, and responding to climate change. This report describes the existing and still needed underpinning science crucial to addressing the many impacts of climate change on water resources management.

  6. Climate impacts on agriculture: Implications for crop production

    SciTech Connect

    Hatfield, Jerry L.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Kimball, B. A.; Ziska, Lewis A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Ort, Don; Thomson, Allison M.; Wolfe, David W.

    2011-04-19

    Changes in temperature, CO2, and precipitation under the scenarios of climate change for the next 30 years present a challenge to crop production. This review focuses on the impact of temperature, CO2, and ozone on agronomic crops and the implications for crop production. Understanding these implications for agricultural crops is critical for developing cropping systems resilient to stresses induced by climate change. There is variation among crops in their response to CO2, temperature, and precipitation changes and, with the regional differences in predicted climate, a situation is created in which the responses will be further complicated. For example, the temperature effects on soybean could potentially cause yield reductions of 2.4% in the South but an increase of 1.7% in the Midwest. The frequency of years when temperatures exceed thresholds for damage during critical growth stages is likely to increase for some crops and regions. The increase in CO2 contributes significantly to enhanced plant growth and improved water use efficiency; however, there may be a downscaling of these positive impacts due to higher temperatures plants will experience during their growth cycle. A challenge is to understand the interactions of the changing climatic parameters because of the interactions among temperature, CO2, and precipitation on plant growth and development and also on the biotic stresses of weeds, insects, and diseases. Agronomists will have to consider the variations in temperature and precipitation as part of the production system if they are to ensure the food security required by an ever increasing population.

  7. Assessing future risks to agricultural productivity, water resources and food security: How can remote sensing help?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thenkabail, Prasad S.; Knox, Jerry W.; Ozdogan, Mutlu; Gumma, Murali Krishna; Congalton, Russell G.; Wu, Zhuoting; Milesi, Cristina; Finkral, Alex; Marshall, Mike; Mariotto, Isabella; You, Songcai; Giri, Chandra; Nagler, Pamela

    2012-01-01

    of changing dietary consumption patterns, a changing climate and the growing scarcity of water and land (Beddington, 2010). The impact from these changes wi ll affect the viability of both dryland subsistence and irrigated commodity food production (Knox, et al., 2010a). Since climate is a primary determinant of agricultural productivity, any changes will influence not only crop yields, but also the hydrologic balances, and supplies of inputs to managed farming systems as well as potentially shifting the geographic location for specific crops . Unless concerted and collective action is taken, society risks worldwide food shortages, scarcity of water resources and insufficient energy. This has the potential to unleash public unrest, cross-border conflicts and migration as people flee the worst-affected regions to seck refuge in "safe havens", a situation that Beddington described as the "perfect storm" (2010).

  8. Useful to Usable (U2U): Transforming climate information into usable tools to support Midwestern agricultural production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prokopy, L. S.; Widhalm, M.

    2014-12-01

    There is a close connection between weather and climate patterns and successful agricultural production. Therefore, incorporating climate information into farm management is likely to reduce the risk of economic losses and increase profitability. While weather and climate information is becoming ever more abundant and accessible, the use of such information in the agricultural community remains limited. Useful to Usable (U2U): Transforming Climate Variability and Change Information for Cereal Crop Producers is a USDA-NIFA funded research and extension project focused on improving the use of climate information for agricultural production in the Midwestern United States by developing user-driven decision tools and training resources. The U2U team is a diverse and uniquely qualified group of climatologists, crop modelers, agronomists, and social scientists from 9 Midwestern universities and two NOAA Regional Climate Centers. Together, we strive to help producers make better long-term plans on what, when and where to plant and also how to manage crops for maximum yields and minimum environmental damage. To ensure relevance and usability of U2U products, our social science team is using a number of techniques including surveys and focus groups to integrate stakeholder interests, needs, and concerns into all aspects of U2U research. It is through this coupling of physical and social science disciplines that we strive to transform existing climate information into actionable knowledge.

  9. Long-term fluctuations of water resources availability and its implications for a sustainable management of arid agricultural coastal regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grundmann, Jens; Schütze, Niels

    2015-04-01

    Freshwater scarcity and ongoing population growth associated with increasing water demands are major challenges for water management in coastal arid regions. Excessive use of groundwater for irrigation in agriculture puts those regions at risk of saltwater intrusion which limits agricultural opportunities. Additionally, some arid regions are characterised by a cyclic climate in which longer periods of dry years are followed by longer periods of wet years. This results also in long-term fluctuations of groundwater replenishment rates and water resources availability which may reach the same order of magnitude like long-term average values. Therefore, these long-term fluctuations should be considered for water resources management planning and operation. In order to evaluate their impact a simulation-based integrated water management system for coastal arid regions is used. The management system couples a groundwater module, assessing the water resources availability, and an agricultural module, controlling irrigation and cultivation within an optimisation module which allow for multi-objective optimisation of the water management regarding profitable and sustainable water resources and agricultural management on farm and regional scale. To achieve a fast and robust operation of the water management system, surrogate models are used which emulate the behaviour of physically based process models and a hierarchical optimisation scheme is applied. The water management system is driven by different scenarios of the water resources availability which were generated by using time series analyses and modelling of local groundwater replenishment rates. An application is performed for the south Batinah coastal region in the Sultanate of Oman which is affected by saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer system due to excessive groundwater withdrawal for irrigated agriculture. Several scenarios of water resources availability are used to compare long-term and adaptive

  10. Climate warming and agricultural stressors interact to determine stream macroinvertebrate community dynamics.

    PubMed

    Piggott, Jeremy J; Townsend, Colin R; Matthaei, Christoph D

    2015-05-01

    Global climate change is likely to modify the ecological consequences of currently acting stressors, but potentially important interactions between climate warming and land-use related stressors remain largely unknown. Agriculture affects streams and rivers worldwide, including via nutrient enrichment and increased fine sediment input. We manipulated nutrients (simulating agricultural run-off) and deposited fine sediment (simulating agricultural erosion) (two levels each) and water temperature (eight levels, 0-6°C above ambient) simultaneously in 128 streamside mesocosms to determine the individual and combined effects of the three stressors on macroinvertebrate community dynamics (community composition and body size structure of benthic, drift and insect emergence assemblages). All three stressors had pervasive individual effects, but in combination often produced additive or antagonistic outcomes. Changes in benthic community composition showed a complex interplay among habitat quality (with or without sediment), resource availability (with or without nutrient enrichment) and the behavioural/physiological tendency to drift or emerge as temperature rose. The presence of sediment and raised temperature both resulted in a community of smaller organisms. Deposited fine sediment strongly increased the propensity to drift. Stressor effects were most prominent in the benthic assemblage, frequently reflected by opposite patterns in individuals quitting the benthos (in terms of their propensity to drift or emerge). Of particular importance is that community measures of stream health routinely used around the world (taxon richness, EPT richness and diversity) all showed complex three-way interactions, with either a consistently stronger temperature response or a reversal of its direction when one or both agricultural stressors were also in operation. The negative effects of added fine sediment, which were often stronger at raised temperatures, suggest that streams already

  11. Water resources transfers through southern African food trade: water efficiency and climate signals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dalin, Carole; Conway, Declan

    2016-01-01

    Temporal and spatial variability of precipitation in southern Africa is particularly high. The associated drought and flood risks, combined with a largely rain-fed agriculture, pose a challenge for water and food security in the region. As regional collaboration strengthens through the Southern Africa Development Community and trade with other regions increases, it is thus important to understand both how climate variability affects agricultural productivity and how food trade (regional and extra-regional) can contribute to the region's capacity to deal with climate-related shocks. We combine global hydrological model simulations with international food trade data to quantify the water resources embedded in international food trade in southern Africa and with the rest of the world, from 1986-2011. We analyze the impacts of socio-economic changes and climatic variability on agricultural trade and embedded water resources during this period. We find that regional food trade is efficient in terms of water use but may be unsustainable because water-productive exporters, like South Africa, rely on increasingly stressed water resources. The role of imports from the rest of the world in the region's food supply is important, in particular during severe droughts. This reflects how trade can efficiently redistribute water resources across continents in response to a sudden gap in food production. In a context of regional and global integration, our results highlight opportunities for improved water-efficiency and sustainability of the region's food supply via trade.

  12. Multi-Factor Impact Analysis of Agricultural Production in Bangladesh with Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Major, David C.; Yu, Winston H.; Alam, Mozaharul; Hussain, Sk. Ghulam; Khan, Abu Saleh; Hassan, Ahmadul; Al Hossain, Bhuiya Md. Tamim; Goldberg, Richard; Horton, Radley M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

    2012-01-01

    Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040-2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins' hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario.

  13. Climate Change Implications For Western U.s. Water Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, A.; Christensen, N.; van Rheenen, N. T.; Payne, J. T.; Hamlet, A. F.; Palmer, R. N.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    Implications of climate change through the year 2098 for the hydrology of the west- ern U.S. were assessed using three ensembles from the NCAR/DOE Parallel Cli- mate Model (PCM) for a business-as-usual (BAU) global emissions scenario. The study area included three river basins, the Columbia (CRB), Sacramento-San Joaquin (SSJB) and Colorado (CORB). The archived PCM simulation outputs (monthly total precipitation and average temperature at T42 grid resolution) were first bias-corrected, disaggregated from a monthly to daily time step and then downscaled to 1/8 or 1/4 de- gree spatial resolution using the Variable Infiltration Capacity macroscale hydrology model. The hydrology model simulated streamflow at selected locations within the study domains, for three ensembles, each of length 103 years. Water resource simula- tion models in the CRB and SSJB were then used to predict, on a monthly time-step, the effects of the climate change scenarios on streamflow timing and volume. By the 2080s, the scenarios predict a warming of about 2 degrees Celsius in the PNW and CORB, and slightly higher in California. Based on the transient hydrologic simula- tions, the key results were: a) CRB hydrology was more robust to the types of changes envisioned by the scenarios than SSJB hydrology, where streamflow volumes were severely diminished during parts of the evaluation period; b) decadal-scale variations in precipitation were as large a driver of hydrologic effects as the mild increase in tem- perature; c) the temperature-driven seasonality changes found in prior climate change studies - a decline in summer streamflow and/or an increase in winter runoff - were corroborated for the SSJB, but were present to a lesser extent for the CRB and CORB; d) the climate simulations exhibit decadal-scale variability in temperature of compara- ble magnitude to the eventual warming; the compounding of the two dynamics (trend and variability) complicates understanding of hydrologic vulnerability

  14. 25 CFR 166.311 - Is an Indian agricultural resource management plan required?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Is an Indian agricultural resource management plan... WATER GRAZING PERMITS Land and Operations Management Management Plans and Environmental Compliance § 166.311 Is an Indian agricultural resource management plan required? (a) Indian agricultural land...

  15. Development and application of fuzzy indicator for assessment of agricultural land resources

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    With ever increasing demands on agriculture, it is essential that we be able to adequately evaluate agriculture land resources. Recently, efforts have been undertaken to develop methods and tools for the purpose of evaluating agricultural land resources. However, to be successful, assessments need...

  16. Future state of the climate change, mitigation and development of sustainable agriculture in Bulgaria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazandjiev, V.; Georgieva, V.; Moteva, M.; Marinova, T.; Dimitrov, P.

    2010-09-01

    GFDL-Rs15) for the periods until 2020-2050-2070. Recover the growth, development and the productivity of the agricultural crops by means of the simulation models as WOFOST, DSSAT and calculation the reference evapotranspiration by CROPWAT model for the production conditions of the country and in correspondence with expected climatic changes; Actualization of existing agroclimatic zoning in Bulgaria for growing main for agriculture field crops, fruits, vegetables, vineyards and forage herbs. Was determinate regions for irrigation and appropriate crops and low-favored for agriculture regions with connection of expected changes 2020-2050-2070. It was investigated relations between the biological (stages of phenological development and yields) and agroclimatic (temperatures, precipitations, soil moisture content, balance of NPK in soils etc.); Find of resources indices and hydrothermal indices for agroclimatic conditions and their applicability. Start process of structuring of agricultural production in dependence from the real and potential resources of the six regions of the country further to the expected climatic changes in 2020-2050-2070. Finally was prepared recommendations for agroclimatic zoning in the practices on the state administration and MAF, investing policy for concentration of National and European funds for farming and insurance companies at determining the their insurance policy.

  17. Climatic Consequences and Agricultural Impact of Regional Nuclear Conflict

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toon, O. B.; Robock, A.; Mills, M. J.; Xia, L.

    2013-05-01

    A nuclear war between India and Pakistan, with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas, would inject smoke from the resulting fires into the stratosphere.This could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and global-scale ozone depletion, with enhanced ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the surface.Simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), run at higher vertical and horizontal resolution than a previous simulation with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE, and incorporating ozone chemistry for the first time, show a longer stratospheric residence time for smoke and hence a longer-lasting climate response, with global average surface air temperatures still 1.1 K below normal and global average precipitation 4% below normal after a decade.The erythemal dose from the enhanced UV radiation would greatly increase, in spite of enhanced absorption by the remaining smoke, with the UV index more than 3 units higher in the summer midlatitudes, even after a decade. Scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation, and downward shortwave radiation from the ModelE and WACCM simulations, applied to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model for winter wheat, rice, soybeans, and maize by perturbing observed time series with anomalies from the regional nuclear war simulations, produce decreases of 10-50% in yield averaged over a decade, with larger decreases in the first several years, over the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The impact of the nuclear war simulated here, using much less than 1% of the global nuclear arsenal, would be devastating to world agricultural production and trade, possibly sentencing a billion people now living marginal existences to starvation.The continued environmental threat of the use of even a small number of nuclear weapons must be considered in nuclear policy deliberations in Russia, the U.S., and the rest of

  18. Climatic Consequences and Agricultural Impact of Regional Nuclear Conflict

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robock, Alan; Mills, Michael; Toon, Owen Brian; Xia, Lili

    2013-04-01

    A nuclear war between India and Pakistan, with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas, would inject smoke from the resulting fires into the stratosphere. This could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and global-scale ozone depletion, with enhanced ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the surface. Simulations with the NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), run at higher vertical and horizontal resolution than a previous simulation with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE, and incorporating ozone chemistry for the first time, show a longer stratospheric residence time for smoke and hence a longer-lasting climate response, with global average surface air temperatures still 1.1 K below normal and global average precipitation 4% below normal after a decade. The erythemal dose from the enhanced UV radiation would greatly increase, in spite of enhanced absorption by the remaining smoke, with the UV index more than 3 units higher in the summer midlatitudes, even after a decade. Scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation, and downward shortwave radiation from the ModelE and WACCM simulations, applied to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model for winter wheat, rice, soybeans, and maize by perturbing observed time series with anomalies from the regional nuclear war simulations, produce decreases of 10-50% in yield averaged over a decade, with larger decreases in the first several years, over several regions in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The impact of the nuclear war simulated here, using much less than 1% of the global nuclear arsenal, would be devastating to world agricultural production and trade, possibly sentencing a billion people now living marginal existences to starvation. The continued environmental threat of the use of even a small number of nuclear weapons must be considered in nuclear policy deliberations in Russia

  19. Citizens' preferences for the conservation of agricultural genetic resources

    PubMed Central

    Pouta, Eija; Tienhaara, Annika; Ahtiainen, Heini

    2014-01-01

    Evaluation of conservation policies for agricultural genetic resources (AgGR) requires information on the use and non-use values of plant varieties and animal breeds, as well as on the preferences for in situ and ex situ conservation. We conducted a choice experiment to estimate citizens' willingness to pay (WTP) for AgGR conservation programmes in Finland, and used a latent class model to identify heterogeneity in preferences among respondent groups. The findings indicate that citizens have a high interest in the conservation of native breeds and varieties, but also reveal the presence of preference heterogeneity. Five respondent groups could be identified based on latent class modeling: one implying lexicographic preferences, two with reasoned choices, one indicating uncertain support and one with a preference for the current status of conservation. The results emphasize the importance of in situ conservation of native cattle breeds and plant varieties in developing conservation policies. PMID:25566324

  20. A New Paradigm for Assessing the Role of Agriculture in the Climate System and in Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pielke, Roger A., Sr.; Adegoke, Jimmy O.; Chase, Thomas N.; Marshall, Curtis H.; Matsui, Toshihisa; Niyogi, Dev

    2007-01-01

    This paper discusses the diverse climate forcings that impact agricultural systems, and contrasts the current paradigm of using global models downscaled to agricultural areas (a top-down approach) with a new paradigm that first assesses the vulnerability of agricultural activities to the spectrum of environmental risk including climate (a bottom-up approach). To illustrate the wide spectrum of climate forcings, regional climate forcings are presented including land-use/land-cover change and the influence of aerosols on radiative and biogeochemical fluxes and cloud/precipitation processes, as well as how these effects can be teleconnected globally. Examples are presented of the vulnerability perspective, along with a small survey of the perceived drought impacts in a local area, in which a wide range of impacts for the same precipitation deficits are found. This example illustrates why agricultural assessments of risk to climate change and variability and of other environmental risks should start with a bottom-up perspective.

  1. Climatic, biological, and strategic effects of nuclear war. Hearing before the Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture Research and Environment of the Committee on Science and Technology, House of Representatives, Ninety-Eighth Congress, Second Session, September 12, 1984

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1985-01-01

    A panel of experts, including Carl Sagan, Jay Gould, and Edward Teller, testified along with climate and atmospheric science experts from the Soviet Union on the long-term effects of a nuclear war. The scientists warned that such an event could repeat the biological and climatic disruption that ended the age of dinosaurs 65 million years ago. The purpose of the hearing was to inform committee members about the nature and outcome of a nuclear winter. The scientists also described international research programs designed to ascertain these long-term effects. They pointed out that, while the effects of a single explosion are well known, little is known of overlapping effects from multiple explosions. Two appendices with additional material submitted for the record and additional questions and answers follows the testimony.

  2. Climate Impacts on Agriculture in the United States: The Value of Past Observations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate impacts on agriculture cause variations in crop yields and lead to lack of stability in grain production. This will become more critical as the world population continues to increase and demands more food. There have been many studies that have shown the impact of climate on agricultural pro...

  3. Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate Online Course: An Effective Tool for Creating Extension Competency

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Whitefield, Elizabeth; Schmidt, David; Witt-Swanson, Lindsay; Smith, David; Pronto, Jennifer; Knox, Pam; Powers, Crystal

    2016-01-01

    There is a need to create competency among Extension professionals on the topic of climate change adaptation and mitigation in animal agriculture. The Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate online course provides an easily accessible, user-friendly, free, and interactive experience for learning science-based information on a national and…

  4. Modelling the Impact of Human Actors on Groundwater Resources under Conditions of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barthel, R.; Reichenau, T. G.; Krimly, T.; Dabbert, S.; Schneider, K.; Mauser, W.; Hennicker, R.

    2012-12-01

    Water resources, activities of human actors and climate change are related in many different and complex ways because of the existence of and strong interactions between various influencing factors, including those that are natural-environmental and socio-economic. The GLOWA-Danube research cooperation has developed the integrated simulation system DANUBIA to simulate water-related influences of global change in different spatial and temporal contexts. DANUBIA is a modular system comprised of 17 dynamically-coupled, process-based model components and a framework which controls the interaction of these components with respect to space and time. This contribution describes approaches and capabilities of DANUBIA with regard to the simulation of global change effects on human decisions in water related fields with a focus on agriculture and groundwater. In agriculture, market prices and legislation can be equally or even more important than water availability in determining farmers' behavior and thus in determining the agricultural impact on water resources quantity and quality. The DANUBIA simulation framework and the associated DeepActor-framework for simulation of decision-making by human actors are presented together with the model components which are most relevant to the interactions between agriculture and groundwater. The approach for developing combination climate and socio-economic scenarios is explained. Exemplary scenario results are shown for the Upper Danube Catchment in Southern Germany. References Barthel, R., Janisch, S., N. Schwarz, A. Trifkovic, D. Nickel, C. Schulz, W. Mauser (2008): An integrated modelling framework for simulating regional-scale actor responses to global change in the water domain. Environmental Modelling and Software, 23, 1095-1121 (doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.02.004) Barthel, R., Reichenau T., Krimly, T., Dabbert, S., Schneider, K., Mauser, W. (2012) Integrated modeling of climate change impacts on agriculture and groundwater

  5. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Columbia River Basin Agriculture through Integrated Crop Systems, Hydrologic, and Water Management Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajagopalan, K.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Adam, J. C.; Barber, M. E.; Yorgey, G.; Stockle, C.; Nelson, R.; Brady, M.; Dinesh, S.; Malek, K.; Kruger, C.; Yoder, J.; Marsh, T.

    2011-12-01

    The Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest covers parts of US and Canada with a total drainage area of about 670,000 square kilometers. The water resources of the CRB are managed to satisfy multiple objectives including agricultural withdrawal, which is the largest consumptive user of Columbia River water with 14,000 square kilometers of irrigated area in the CRB. Agriculture is an important component of the economy in the region, with an annual value over $5 billion in Washington State alone. The availability of surface water for irrigation in the basin is expected to be negatively impacted by climate change. Previous climate change studies in the CRB region suggest a likelihood of increasing temperatures and a shift in precipitation patterns, with precipitation higher in the winter and lower in the summer. Warming further exacerbates summer water availability in many CRB tributaries as they shift from snowmelt-dominant towards rain-dominant hydrologic regimes. The goal of this research is to study the impacts of climate change on CRB water availability and agricultural production in the expectation that curtailment will occur more frequently in an altered climate. Towards this goal it is essential that we understand the interactions between crop-growth dynamics, climate dynamics, the hydrologic cycle, water management, and agricultural economy. To study these interactions at the regional scale, we use the newly developed crop-hydrology model VIC-CropSyst, which integrates a crop growth model CropSyst with the hydrologic model, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC). Simulation of future climate by VIC-CropSyst captures the socio-economic aspects of this system through economic analysis of the impacts of climate change on crop patterns. This integrated framework (submitted as a separate paper) is linked to a reservoir operations simulations model, Colsim. ColSim is modified to explicitly account for agricultural withdrawals. Washington State water

  6. Creating a Library of Climate Change Education Resources for Audiences in the Southeast United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carroll, J.; McNeal, K. S.; Williams, C. C.; Paz, J. O.; Cho, H. "; Nair, U. S.; Geroux, J.; Guthrie, C.; Wright, K.; Hill, J.

    2011-12-01

    The Climate Literacy Partnership in the Southeast (CLiPSE) is a part of the Climate Change Education Program supported by the National Science Foundation (http://CLiPSE-project.org). The established CLiPSE partnership is dedicated to improving climate literacy in the southeast and promoting scientifically accurate, formal educational resources for the K-12 classroom audience, as well as informal educational resources for audiences such as agriculture, education, leisure, and religious organizations, to name a few. The CLiPSE project has been successful in creating partnerships with the National Geographic Alliances, Departments of Education, and Mississippi Environmental Education Alliance, among others, to determine an effective strategic plan for reaching K-12 audiences. One goal in the strategic plan is to create a catalog of climate change education resources that are aligned to state standards in the SE. Eighty-seven resources from the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (http://cleanet.org) have been aligned with the state education standards for grades six through twelve in the southeast, beginning with science in Mississippi and expanding to include science and math in the remaining SE states. The criteria for aligning the existing resources includes: matching key terms, topics, and lesson activities with the content strands and essential skills included in the state science framework. By developing a searchable database containing climate resources already aligned with state standards, CLiPSE will have made these resources more appealing to educators in the SE, increasing the likelihood of resources being implemented in the classroom. The CLiPSE Climate Science Team has also created an inventory of scientifically sound, informal resources, which will be available for dispersion to appropriate audiences and communities. Cataloged resources, both formal and informal, grouped by a variety of means, to include audience, grade level, and resource

  7. Agricultural pests under future climate conditions: downscaling of regional climate scenarios with a stochastic weather generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirschi, M.; Stöckli, S.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Rotach, M. W.; Calanca, P.; Samietz, J.

    2010-09-01

    As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously unaffected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests have been developed, which model the infestation depending on actual weather conditions. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages therefore requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. In particular, pest forecast models are often not based on screen temperature and precipitation alone (i.e., the most generally projected climate variables), but might require input variables such as soil temperature, in-canopy net radiation or leaf wetness. Here, we use a stochastic weather and a re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather data from regional climate change scenarios for 2050 in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios were derived from multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly temperature, precipitation and radiation data were produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather time series were then used for modeling important phases in the lifecycle of codling moth, the major insect pest in apple orchards worldwide. First results indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of phases relevant for pest disease control for projected as compared to current climate (e.g. the flight of the codling moth starts about ten days earlier in future climate), continuing an already observed trend towards more favorable conditions for this insect during the last 20 years.

  8. Future agricultural water demand under climate change: regional variability and uncertainties arising from CMIP5 climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schewe, J.; Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.

    2012-12-01

    The agricultural sector (irrigation and livestock) uses by far the largest amount of water among all sectors and is responsible for 70% of the global water withdrawal. At a country scale, irrigation water withdrawal often exceeds 90% of the total water used in many of emerging and developing countries such as India, Pakistan, Iran and Mexico, sustaining much of food production and the livelihood of millions of people. The livestock sector generally accounts less than 1-2% of total water withdrawal, yet exceeds 10-30% of the total water used in many of the African countries. Future agricultural water demand is, however, subject to large uncertainties due to anticipated climate change, i.e. warming temperature and changing precipitation variability, in various regions of the world. Here, we use a global hydrological and water resources model to quantify the impact of climate change on regional irrigation and livestock water demand, and the resulting uncertainties arsing from newly available CMIP5 climate projections obtained through Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP; http://www.isi-mip.org/). Irrigation water requirement per unit crop area is estimated by simulating daily soil water balance with crop-related data. Livestock water demand is calculated by combining livestock densities with their drinking water requirements that is a function of air temperature. The results of the ensemble mean show that global irrigation and livestock water demand increased by ~6% and ~12% by 2050 respectively primarily due to higher evaporative demand as a result of increased temperature. At a regional scale, agricultural water demand decreased over some parts of Europe (e.g., Italy, Germany) and Southeast Asia (e.g., the Philippines, Malaysia), but increased over South Asia, the U.S., the Middle East and Africa. However, the projections are highly uncertain over many parts of the world. The results of the ensemble projections in agricultural water demand

  9. Global Agriculture Yields and Conflict under Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rising, J.; Cane, M. A.

    2013-12-01

    Aspects of climate have been shown to correlate significantly with conflict. We investigate a possible pathway for these effects through changes in agriculture yields, as predicted by field crop models (FAO's AquaCrop and DSSAT). Using satellite and station weather data, and surveyed data for soil and management, we simulate major crop yields across all countries between 1961 and 2008, and compare these to FAO and USDA reported yields. Correlations vary by country and by crop, from approximately .8 to -.5. Some of this range in crop model performance is explained by crop varieties, data quality, and other natural, economic, and political features. We also quantify the ability of AquaCrop and DSSAT to simulate yields under past cycles of ENSO as a proxy for their performance under changes in climate. We then describe two statistical models which relate crop yields to conflict events from the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict dataset. The first relates several preceding years of predicted yields of the major grain in each country to any conflict involving that country. The second uses the GREG ethnic group maps to identify differences in predicted yields between neighboring regions. By using variation in predicted yields to explain conflict, rather than actual yields, we can identify the exogenous effects of weather on conflict. Finally, we apply precipitation and temperature time-series under IPCC's A1B scenario to the statistical models. This allows us to estimate the scale of the impact of future yields on future conflict. Centroids of the major growing regions for each country's primary crop, based on USDA FAS consumption. Correlations between simulated yields and reported yields, for AquaCrop and DSSAT, under the assumption that no irrigation, fertilization, or pest control is used. Reported yields are the average of FAO yields and USDA FAS yields, where both are available.

  10. The Impact of Changing Climate on Ammonia Emissions from Agriculture and the Associated Climate Forcings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, D. S.; Riddick, S. N.; Hess, P. G. M.

    2015-12-01

    Agriculture is the largest anthropogenic source of ammonia (NH3) on a global scale with major contributions from the application of synthetic fertilizer and manure from livestock. While strict controls are placed on the emissions of many industrial pollutants, NH3 concentrations are expected to increase this century. In addition to future expansion of agricultural activities that could lead to greater NH3 emissions, NH3 emissions are affected by changes in temperature and precipitation. Here we use a newly developed agricultural N pathways model running in a global terrestrial model (Community Land Model v4.0) to estimate future NH3 emissions from manure and synthetic fertilizer application, and the impact of changing climate on these emissions and other N pathways (runoff, denitrification, etc.). We include future increases in the application of manure and synthetic fertilizer that are consistent with a middle-of-the-road projection of population growth and per capita caloric intake. Combined with atmospheric forcing that follows RCP8.5, NH3 emissions increase by about 50% and 90% between years 2010 and 2100 from synthetic fertilizer and manure, respectively. Roughly 25% of this increase can be attributed to the changing climate, mainly increased global temperatures over the 21st century. We show associated changes in ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate aerosol concentrations and radiative forcings, the results of a set of additional simulations using the Community Atmosphere Model v5.0 and an offline radiative transfer scheme. This work suggests that projections of global NH3 concentrations need to take changes in climate into account.

  11. Water resources in a changing climate: An Idaho research initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walden, V. P.

    2009-12-01

    A new initiative in Idaho funded by NSF EPSCoR will build state-wide research infrastructure to address how changes in future climatic conditions may impact water resources, as well as ecological and human systems. This project is supporting complementary field studies on a highly managed river system (Snake River Plain) and a relatively unmanaged system (Salmon River Basin). The project aims to fill a critical niche in hydrology by understanding the connection between surface flow and groundwater. Research capacity is being developed in three main areas: 1) hydroclimatology to improve modeling of water resources affected by climate change, 2) integration of hydrology and economic modeling in the Snake River basin, and 3) highly interdisciplinary research in the Salmon River basin involving climate, water, fire, insect infestations, geomorphology, and stream health. The project will also enhance outreach and educational experiences in climate change and water resources. A description of the new initiative and the activities associated with it will be given.

  12. Sensitivity of Mediterranean groundwater resources to potential climate futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, Andreas; Gleeson, Tom; Wagener, Thorsten

    2014-05-01

    A large fraction of the Mediterranean water supply originates from karst aquifers that evolved through the dissolution of carbonate rock. Climate simulations indicate that the Mediterranean will experience a strong increase in temperature and a significant decrease in precipitation within the next 100 years. To be prepared, policy-makers need quantitative and reliable estimates of potential changes to karst water resources. In this study we present the result of a very first attempt to quantify karst water resources over the whole Mediterranean region. Instead of considering groundwater volumes, we consider the flux of water into the aquifer, called groundwater recharge, as a useful indicator for groundwater sustainability. We developed a process-based karst recharge model that is driven by large-scale meteorological observations or downscaled climate scenarios. Using a new metric for quantifying the sensitivity of recharge to climatic changes (termed recharge elasticity) we can explore the sensitivity of Mediterranean karstic groundwater resources to future climatic boundary conditions.

  13. Application of the MIKE SHE hydrological model in exploring sustainable development of water resources for agricultural activities in the White Volta Basin, Ghana

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oteng, F. M.; Alo, C. A.; Bitew, M. M.; Yidana, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    Sustainable abstraction of groundwater resources for commercial irrigation in the White Volta Basin (WVB) holds promise for a fledging agricultural industry in the basin. This is because erratic rainfall patterns attending climate change/variability has imposed mixed fortunes in terms of rain-fed agricultural activities currently practiced in the WVB. Addressing the sustainability of groundwater for commercial abstraction will require the integration of surface and subsurface flows and analysis of the impacts of climate change scenarios on the resource, employing a surface-subsurface flow model. Here, we present early results from surface flow simulation over the basin using the physically-based surface-subsurface flow model MIKE SHE.

  14. The value of seasonal forecasting and crop mix adaptation to climate variability for agriculture under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, H. S.; Schneider, U.; Schmid, E.; Held, H.

    2012-04-01

    Changes to climate variability and frequency of extreme weather events are expected to impose damages to the agricultural sector. Seasonal forecasting and long range prediction skills have received attention as an option to adapt to climate change because seasonal climate and yield predictions could improve farmers' management decisions. The value of seasonal forecasting skill is assessed with a crop mix adaptation option in Spain where drought conditions are prevalent. Yield impacts of climate are simulated for six crops (wheat, barely, cotton, potato, corn and rice) with the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model. Daily weather data over the period 1961 to 1990 are used and are generated by the regional climate model REMO as reference period for climate projection. Climate information and its consequent yield variability information are given to the stochastic agricultural sector model to calculate the value of climate information in the agricultural market. Expected consumers' market surplus and producers' revenue is compared with and without employing climate forecast information. We find that seasonal forecasting benefits not only consumers but also producers if the latter adopt a strategic crop mix. This mix differs from historical crop mixes by having higher shares of crops which fare relatively well under climate change. The corresponding value of information is highly sensitive to farmers' crop mix choices.

  15. Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture.

    PubMed

    Naylor, Rosamond L; Battisti, David S; Vimont, Daniel J; Falcon, Walter P; Burke, Marshall B

    2007-05-01

    El Niño events typically lead to delayed rainfall and decreased rice planting in Indonesia's main rice-growing regions, thus prolonging the hungry season and increasing the risk of annual rice deficits. Here we use a risk assessment framework to examine the potential impact of El Niño events and natural variability on rice agriculture in 2050 under conditions of climate change, with a focus on two main rice-producing areas: Java and Bali. We select a 30-day delay in monsoon onset as a threshold beyond which significant impact on the country's rice economy is likely to occur. To project the future probability of monsoon delay and changes in the annual cycle of rainfall, we use output from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 suite of climate models, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, and scale it to the regional level by using empirical downscaling models. Our results reveal a marked increase in the probability of a 30-day delay in monsoon onset in 2050, as a result of changes in the mean climate, from 9-18% today (depending on the region) to 30-40% at the upper tail of the distribution. Predictions of the annual cycle of precipitation suggest an increase in precipitation later in the crop year (April-June) of approximately 10% but a substantial decrease (up to 75% at the tail) in precipitation later in the dry season (July-September). These results indicate a need for adaptation strategies in Indonesian rice agriculture, including increased investments in water storage, drought-tolerant crops, crop diversification, and early warning systems. PMID:17483453

  16. NASA's Meteorologist Center: Online Resources to Promote Climate Literacy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jackson, R.; Tenenbaum, L. F.; Witte, J.

    2012-12-01

    In a recent survey by George Mason University, a significant number of meteorologists and weathercasters in America cited lack of access to appropriate visuals and graphics as a basic impediment to reporting the reality of anthropogenic climate change. To address this need, NASA's Global Climate Change Website, climate.nasa.gov, has developed an online Meteorologist Center, stocked with high quality graphics and animations, public education materials, and a list of credible online resources. The goal of the project is to provide weathercasters with a "one-stop shop" for broadcast-ready materials that can be used to report on global climate change and to educate audiences.;

  17. Water governance, agricultural development and community-level resilience to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evans, T.; Cox, M.; McCord, P.; Caylor, K. K.; Washington-Ottombre, C.; Soderberg, K.; Sadri, S.

    2012-12-01

    Climate and other physical drivers of environmental systems are modifying the global availability of water for irrigation. At the same time population growth is placing an increased demand on water resources as local municipalities promote agricultural production as a mechanism to support human welfare and development. Substantial research focuses on agricultural decision-making and practices to assess current and future demand for water based on crop types and irrigation practices. Equally important is the role of environmental governance as expressed through institutions which, in case the case of water systems, are the rules implemented to allocate water resources across different user groups. In water-limited environments, institutions play a critical role in addressing the challenges posed by water demand exceeding water supply. A pressing global concern is whether institutions that evolved over the last several decades are well suited to meet potential future water demands in the context of climate change and increasing rates of water abstraction. A related question is whether social and cultural conditions enable adaptive governance that can modify institutions to different water availability scenarios. In order to assess cross-scale resilience of households and communities reliant on irrigated agriculture to climate change, methodological tools are needed to characterize these issues of "institutional fit" and institutional change. We have developed a framework for characterizing institutional dynamics as a platform for the cross-site analysis of human-water governance. To demonstrate the utility of this framework we present a coding process applying this framework to irrigation schemes in Kenya. We present findings from research on rural agriculturalists in Kenya investigating irrigation practices and institutions designed to allocate water across communities. Initial indications are that current institutional regimes are suitable for current hydrological

  18. Implications of the Projected Future Climate on Water Resources in the Indian Sub-continent Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shah, H. L.; Mishra, V.

    2014-12-01

    Sustainability of water resources is vital for agricultural and socio-economic development in India. In the recent few decades, India has been witnessing erratic nature of the Indian summer monsoon, which accounts for about 80% of the total annual rainfall. While there is a large uncertainty in the precipitation projections during the summer monsoon from the regional and global climate models, we need to understand sensitivity of water resources in the Indian sub-continental river basins under the projected future climate. This is particularly important as the Indian sub-continent is one of the most populated regions of the world. We evaluated changes in water budget in the 18 Indian sub-continental basins under the projected future climate using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The VIC model was calibrated and evaluated using the observed streamflow as well as satellite derived evapotranspiration and soil moisture. After the successful calibration and evaluation, we performed a sensitivity analysis for the water balance variables. Finally, we used downscaled and bias corrected climate forcings to develop scenarios of changes in water balance under the future climate. Despite the intermodal variation, Indian basins are projected to experience wetter and warmer climate in future. Results indicate positive changes in evapotranspiration and runoff under the projected future climate; however, increases in total runoff are projected to be significant in most of the basins in the sub-continent.

  19. Climatic Changes and Evaluation of Their Effects on Agriculture in Asian Monsoon Region- A project of GRENE-ei programs in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mizoguchi, M.; Matsumoto, J.; Takahashi, H. G.; Tanaka, K.; Kuwagata, T.

    2015-12-01

    It is important to predict climate change correctly in regional scale and to build adaptation measures and mitigation measures in the Asian monsoon region where more than 60 % of the world's population are living. The reliability of climate change prediction model is evaluated by the reproducibility of past climate in general. However, because there are many developing countries in the Asian monsoon region, adequate documentations of past climate which are needed to evaluate the climate reproducibility have not been prepared. In addition, at present it is difficult to get information on wide-area agricultural meteorological data which affect the growth of agricultural crops when considering the impact on agriculture of climate. Therefore, we have started a research project entitled "Climatic changes and evaluation of their effects on agriculture in Asian monsoon region (CAAM)" under the research framework of the Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) for the Japanese fiscal years from 2011 to 2015 supported by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). This project aims to improve the reliability of future climate prediction and to develop the information platform which will be useful to design adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture against the predicted climatic changes in Asian monsoon regions. What is GRENE?Based on the new growth strategy which was approved by the Cabinet of Japan in June 2010, Green Network of Excellence program (GRENE) has started under MEXT from FY 2011. The objectives of this program are that the domestic leading universities work together strategically and promote a comprehensive human resource development and research of the highest level in the world while sharing research resources and research goals. In the field of environmental information, it is required that universities and research institutions, which are working on issues such as adaptation to climate change, cooperate to

  20. CLIMATIC SENSITIVITY OF CALIFORNIA WATER RESOURCES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The possible effects of climate change on the combined Central Valley Project-California State Water Project (CVP/SWP) were evaluated using a three-stage approach. n the first stage, runoff from four headwater "study catchments" was simulated using rainfall/snowmelt-runoff models...

  1. Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment Part 5. Irrigated Agriculture and National Grain Crop Production

    SciTech Connect

    Thomson, Allison M.; Rosenberg, Norman J.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Brown, Robert A.

    2005-04-01

    Over the next century global warming will lead to changes in weather patterns, affecting many aspects of our environment. In the United States, the one sector of the economy most likely to be directly impacted by the changes in climate is agriculture. We have examined potential changes in dryland agriculture (Part 2) and in water resources necessary for crop production (Part 3). Here we assess to what extent, under a set of climate change scenarios, water supplies will be sufficient to meet the irrigation requirement of major grain crops in the U.S. In addition, we assess the overall impacts of changes in water supply on national grain production. We applied 12 climate change scenarios based on the predictions of General Circulation Models to a water resources model and a crop growth simulator for the conterminous United States. We calculate national production in current crop growing regions by applying irrigation where it is necessary and water is available. Irrigation declines under all climate change scenarios employed in this study. In certain regions and scenarios, precipitation declines so much that water supplies are too limited; in other regions it plentiful enough that little value is derived from irrigation. Total crop production is greater when irrigation is applied, but corn and soybean production declines under most scenarios. Winter wheat production responds significantly to elevated atmospheric CO2 and appears likely to increase under climate change.

  2. [Variation characteristics of agricultural heat resource and its effect on agriculture in Shanxi Province, China].

    PubMed

    Qian, Jin-xia; Zhang, Jian-xin; Li, Na; Han, Pu

    2015-03-01

    Based on the data of the daily mean air temperature and the minimum soil surface temperature of 70 meteorological stations in Shanxi Province from 1970 to 2012, the heat indices of agricultu-ral resources including accumulated temperatures above 0 °C and 10 °C , the average temperature in July and the annual frost-free duration were calculated. Their variation trends and mutation were analyzed by using linear regression and accumulated anomaly methods. The effect of agricultural heat resource on crop producing area was analyzed. The results showed that the accumulated temperatures for above 0 °C and 10 °C had increased significantly at a rate of about 64.8 and 57.9 °C . d . (10 a) -1, respectively (P<0.001). The average temperature in July and the annual frost-free duration had significantly increased at a rate of about 0.3 °C. (10 a)-1 and 5.9 d . (10 a)-1, respectively. The increasing ranges of heat resource indices had different spatial distribution patterns in Shanxi Province. The accumulated temperatures were greater in the west than that in the east. The average temperature in July was greater in middle and north than that in the south. The annual frost-free duration was greater in the middle than that in the south and north. The accumulated temperatures above 0 °C and 10 °C showed a clear mutation in 1996, so were the average temperature in July in 1993 and the annual frost-free duration in 1997. Compared to the time before mutation, the accumulated temperatures above 0 °C and 10 °C increased by 219.4 °C . d and 196.7 °C . d, respectively, the average temperature in July by 0.8 °C and the annual frost-free duration by 15 d. As a result, hot crop cultivable area and warm crop cultivable area were expanded northward, while the mild crop cultivable area, cool crop cultivable area, cold crop cultivable area and alpine plants area were shrunk. The maximum expansion was of the warm crop cultivable area (by 175.7%). The maximum shrinkage was of the

  3. 76 FR 17962 - Strengthening the Scientific Understanding of Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Resources of...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-03-31

    ... Geological Survey Strengthening the Scientific Understanding of Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater... titled ``Strengthening the Scientific Understanding of Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Resources of... Federal Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and its Water Resources Workgroup....

  4. Human Resource Development for Modernizing the Agricultural Workforce

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rivera, William M.; Alex, Gary E.

    2008-01-01

    Greater commercialization of agricultural systems and increasing trade liberalization dictate the need for better capacity on the part of the agriculture workforce in the 21st century. Global changes in the roles of the public and private sectors and the dramatic advancements in technology have also strongly affected agricultural workforce…

  5. Namibia specific climate smart agricultural land use practices: Challenges and opportunities for enhancing ecosystem services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuhn, Nikolaus J.; Talamondjila Naanda, Martha; Bloemertz, Lena

    2015-04-01

    Agriculture is a backbone for many African economies, with an estimated 70% of Africans active in agricultural production. The sector often does not only directly contribute to, but sustains food security and poverty reduction efforts. Sustaining this productivity poses many challenges, particularly to small scale subsistence farmers (SSF) in dry land areas and semi-arid countries like Namibia. SSF in northern central Namibia mix crop and livestock production on degraded semi-arid lands and nutrient-poor sandy soils. They are fully dependent on agricultural production with limited alternative sources of income. Mostly, their agricultural harvests and outputs are low, not meeting their livelihood needs. At the same time, the land use is often not sustainable, leading to degradation. The Namibia case reveals that addressing underlying economic, social and environmental challenges requires a combination of farm level-soil management practices with a shift towards integrated landscape management. This forms the basis for SSF to adopt sustainable land management practices while building institutional foundations, like establishing SSF cooperatives. One way in which this has been tested is through the concept of incentive-based motivation, i.e. payment for ecosystem services (PES), in which some of the beneficiaries pay, for instance for farmers or land users, who provide the services. The farmers provide these services by substituting their unsustainable land and soil management and adopting new (climate smart agricultural) land use practices. Climate Smart Agricultural land use practices (CSA-LUP) are one way of providing ecosystem services, which could be fundamental to long-term sustainable soil and land management solutions in Africa. There are few PES cases which have been systematically studied from an institutional development structure perspective. This study presents lessons evolving from the notion that direct participation and involvement of local people

  6. Strategic Program for Biodiversity and Water Resource Management and Climate Change Adaptation in Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sher, Hassan; Aldosari, Ali

    2014-05-01

    Population pressure, climate change and resulting extreme weather scenarios, armed con?ict and economic pressure have put the situation of Pakistan's biodiversity at risk. Melting glaciers, deforestation, erosion, landslides and depletion of agricultural areas are aggravating the regulation of water ?ow in Pakistan. In Pakistan agro-biodiversity is central to human survival and play vital role in the economy of the country. It contributes 21% to the GDP, employs 45% of the labor force and contributes 71% of the export earnings. Agro- biodiversity in Pakistan is greatly affected by short term climate variability and could be harmed signi?cantly by long-term climate change. As the duration of crop growth cycle is related to temperature, an increase in temperature will speed up crop growth and shorten the duration between sowing and harvesting. This shortening could have an adverse effect on productivity of crops. The present assessment also revealed that hydrological cycle is also likely to be in?uenced by global warming. Since the agricultural crops are heavily dependent on the water, and water resources are inextricably linked with climate; therefore, the projected climate change has serious implications for water resources of the country. The freshwater resources, in Pakistan, are based on snow- and glacier-melt and monsoon rains, both being highly sensitive to climate change. The country speci?c current information strongly suggests that: decrease in glacier volume and snow cover leading to alterations in the seasonal ?ow pattern of Indus River System; increased annual ?ows for a few decades followed by decline in ?ows in subsequent years; increase in the formation and burst of glacial lakes; higher frequency and intensity of extreme climate events coupled with irregular monsoon rains causing frequent ?oods and droughts; and greater demand of water due to higher evapotranspiration rates at elevated temperatures. These trends will have large impact on the spatial

  7. Methodology of risk assessment of loss of water resources due to climate changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Israfilov, Yusif; Israfilov, Rauf; Guliyev, Hatam; Afandiyev, Galib

    2016-04-01

    For sustainable development and management of rational use of water resources of Azerbaijan Republic it is actual to forecast their changes taking into account different scenarios of climate changes and assessment of possible risks of loss of sections of water resources. The major part of the Azerbaijani territory is located in the arid climate and the vast majority of water is used in the national economic production. An optimal use of conditional groundwater and surface water is of great strategic importance for economy of the country in terms of lack of common water resources. Low annual rate of sediments, high evaporation and complex natural and hydrogeological conditions prevent sustainable formation of conditioned resources of ground and surface water. In addition, reserves of fresh water resources are not equally distributed throughout the Azerbaijani territory. The lack of the common water balance creates tension in the rational use of fresh water resources in various sectors of the national economy, especially in agriculture, and as a result, in food security of the republic. However, the fresh water resources of the republic have direct proportional dependence on climatic factors. 75-85% of the resources of ground stratum-pore water of piedmont plains and fracture-vein water of mountain regions are formed by the infiltration of rainfall and condensate water. Changes of climate parameters involve changes in the hydrological cycle of the hydrosphere and as a rule, are reflected on their resources. Forecasting changes of water resources of the hydrosphere with different scenarios of climate change in regional mathematical models allowed estimating the extent of their relationship and improving the quality of decisions. At the same time, it is extremely necessary to obtain additional data for risk assessment and management to reduce water resources for a detailed analysis, forecasting the quantitative and qualitative parameters of resources, and also for

  8. Assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural production in the Columbia River basin: incorporating water management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adam, J. C.; Rajagopalan, K.; Stockle, C. O.; Yorgey, G.; Kruger, C. E.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Nelson, R.

    2014-12-01

    Changes in global population, food consumption and climate lead to a food security challenge for the future. Water resources, agricultural productivity and the relationships between them will to a large extent dictate how we address this challenge. Although food security is a global issue, impacts of climate change on water resources and agricultural productivity, as well as viability of adaptation strategies, are location specific; e.g., it is important to consider the regional regulatory environment. Our work focuses on the Columbia River basin (CRB) of the Pacific Northwest US. The water resources of the CRB are heavily managed to meet competing demands. There also exists a legal system for individuals/groups to obtain rights to use the publicly owned water resources, and the possibility of curtailing (i.e., restricting) some of these water rights in times of shortage. It is important to include an approximation of this water resource regulation and water rights curtailment process in modeling water availability and impacts of water shortages on agricultural production. The overarching objective of this work is to apply an integrated hydrologic-crop-water management modeling framework over the CRB to characterize the impacts of climate change on irrigation water demands, irrigation water availability, water shortages, and associated impacts in the 2030s. Results indicate that climate change has both positive and negative effects on agricultural production in the CRB and this varies by region and crop type. Certain watersheds that are already water stressed are projected to experience increasing stress in the future. Although, climate change results in increased water shortages and water rights curtailment in the region, this does not necessarily translate into an increased negative effect on yields; some crops are projected to increase in yield despite curtailment. This could be attributed to higher water use efficiency under elevated CO2 levels as well crops

  9. Operating Water Resources Systems Under Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmad, S.

    2002-12-01

    Population and industrial growth has resulted in intense demands on the quantity and quality of water resources worldwide. Moreover, climate change/variability is making a growing percentage of the earth's population vulnerable to extreme weather events (drought and flood). The 1996 Saguenay flood, 1997 Red River flood, the 1998 ice storm, and recent droughts in prairies are few examples of extreme weather events in Canada. Rising economic prosperity, growth in urban population, aging infrastructure, and a changing climate are increasing the vulnerability of Canadians to even more serious impacts. This growing threat can seriously undermine the social and economic viability of the country. Our ability to understand the impacts of climate change/variability on water quantity, quality, and its distribution in time and space can prepare us for sustainable management of this precious resource. The sustainability of water resources, over the medium to long-term, is critically dependent on the ability to manage (plan and operate) water resource systems under a more variable and perhaps warmer future climate. Studying the impacts of climate change/variability on water resources is complex and challenging. It is further complicated by the fact that impacts vary with time and are different at different locations. This study deals with the impacts of climate change/variability on water resources in a portion of the Red River Basin in Canada, both in terms of change in quantity and spatial-temporal distribution. A System Dynamics model is developed to describe the operation of the Shellmouth Reservoir located on the Red River in Canada. The climate data from Canadian Global Coupled Model, CGCM1 is used. The spatial system dynamics approach, based on distributed parameter control theory, is used to model the impacts of climate change/variability on water resources in time and space. A decision support system is developed to help reservoir operators and decision makers in

  10. Climate, Agriculture, Energy and the Optimal Allocation of Global Land Use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinbuks, J.; Hertel, T. W.

    2011-12-01

    The allocation of the world's land resources over the course of the next century has become a pressing research question. Continuing population increases, improving, land-intensive diets amongst the poorest populations in the world, increasing production of biofuels and rapid urbanization in developing countries are all competing for land even as the world looks to land resources to supply more environmental services. The latter include biodiversity and natural lands, as well as forests and grasslands devoted to carbon sequestration. And all of this is taking place in the context of faster than expected climate change which is altering the biophysical environment for land-related activities. The goal of the paper is to determine the optimal profile for global land use in the context of growing commercial demands for food and forest products, increasing non-market demands for ecosystem services, and more stringent GHG mitigation targets. We then seek to assess how the uncertainty associated with the underlying biophysical and economic processes influences this optimal profile of land use, in light of potential irreversibility in these decisions. We develop a dynamic long-run, forward-looking partial equilibrium framework in which the societal objective function being maximized places value on food production, liquid fuels (including biofuels), timber production, forest carbon and biodiversity. Given the importance of land-based emissions to any GHG mitigation strategy, as well as the potential impacts of climate change itself on the productivity of land in agriculture, forestry and ecosystem services, we aim to identify the optimal allocation of the world's land resources, over the course of the next century, in the face of alternative GHG constraints. The forestry sector is characterized by multiple forest vintages which add considerable computational complexity in the context of this dynamic analysis. In order to solve this model efficiently, we have employed the

  11. Sustainable Water and Agricultural Land Use in the Guanting Watershed under Limited Water Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wechsung, F.; Möhring, J.; Otto, I. M.; Wang, X.; Guanting Project Team

    2012-04-01

    The Yongding River System is an important water source for the northeastern Chinese provinces Shanxi, Hebei, Beijing, and Tianjin. The Guanting Reservoir within this river system is one of the major water sources for Beijing, which is about 70 km away. Original planning assumed a discharge of 44 m3/s for the reservoir, but the current mean discharge rate is only about 5 m3/s; there is often hardly any discharge at all. Water scarcity is a major threat for the socio-economic development of the area. The situation is additionally aggravated by climate change impacts. Typical upstream-downstream conflicts with respect to water quantity and quality requests are mixed up with conflicts between different sectors, mainly mining, industry, and agriculture. These conflicts can be observed on different administrative levels, for example between the provinces, down to households. The German-Chinese research project "Sustainable water and agricultural land use in the Guanting Watershed under limited water resources" investigates problems and solutions related to water scarcity in the Guanting Catchment. The aim of the project is to create a vulnerability study in order to assess options for (and finally achieve) sustainable water and land use management in the Guanting region. This includes a comprehensive characterization of the current state by gap analysis and identification of pressures and impacts. The presentation gives an overview of recent project results regarding regionalization of global change scenarios and specification for water supply, evaluation of surface water quantity balances (supply-demand), evaluation of the surface water quality balances (emissions-impact thresholds), and exploration of integrative measurement planning. The first results show that climate in the area is becoming warmer and drier which leads to even more dramatically shrinking water resources. Water supply is expected to be reduced between one and two thirds. Water demand might be

  12. 25 CFR 161.200 - Is an Indian agricultural resource management plan required?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Is an Indian agricultural resource management plan... WATER NAVAJO PARTITIONED LANDS GRAZING PERMITS General Provisions § 161.200 Is an Indian agricultural resource management plan required? (a) Yes, Navajo Partitioned Lands must be managed in accordance with...

  13. Renewable Natural Resources/Agriculture Curriculum. Secondary and Postsecondary Articulated Curriculum.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alaska State Dept. of Education, Juneau. Div. of Adult and Vocational Education.

    This competency-based curriculum is designed to be a handbook for courses in renewable natural resources/agriculture in Alaska. It details the competencies, developed through a survey of renewable natural resources/agriculture employers in Alaska, that such occupations require. The handbook is organized in six sections. Section I introduces the…

  14. What is needed to understand feedback mechanisms from agricultural and climate changes that can alter the hydrological system and the transport of sediments and agricultural chemicals?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coupe, Richard; Payraudeau, Sylvain; Babcsányi, Izabella; Imfeld, Gwenaël

    2015-04-01

    Modern agriculture activities are constantly changing as producers try to produce a crop, keep their soils fertile, control pests, and prevent contamination of air and water resources. Because most of the world's arable land is already in production we must become more efficient if we are to feed and clothe the world's growing population as well as do this in a sustainable manner; leaving a legacy of fertile soil and clean water resources for our descendants. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of historical datasets and of developing new strategies to understand the effects of changing agricultural systems on the environment. Scientists who study agriculture and its effects on water must constantly adapt their strategies and evaluate how changing agricultural activities impact the environment. As well as understand from historical datasets on hydrology and agriculture how a changing climate or agricultural activity such as a change in tillage method might impact the processes that determine the movement of agricultural chemicals off of the target site. The 42.7 ha Hohrain (Rouffach, Alsace, France) vineyard experimental catchment offers several examples of how scientists have used historical data from this catchment to understand how the transport of agricultural chemicals may change due to a changing climate as well as how new strategies are developed for understanding the transport of agricultural chemicals. Runoff is a major process of pesticide transport from agricultural land to downstream aquatic ecosystems. The impact of rainfall characteristics on the transport of runoff-related pesticides is crucial to understanding how to prevent or minimize their movement now, but also in understanding how climate change might affect runoff. If we understand how rainfall characteristics affect the transport of pesticides, we can use climate change models to predict how those characteristics might change in the future and be better prepared for

  15. Agriculture, Settlement, and Abrupt Climate Change: The 4.2ka BP event in Northern Mesopotamia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ristvet, L.

    2003-12-01

    An abrupt aridification event at 4200 BP has been recorded in 41 paleoclimate proxies in the Old World, from Kilmanjaro, Tanzania to Rajasthan, India, East Asia and the Pacific. This event is particularly well defined for Western Asia, where it has been associated with the abandonment of settlements across the Fertile Crescent and the collapse of states on the Levantine coast and in the dry-farming plains of Northern Mesopotamia, including the Akkadian Empire. Adaptations to climate change are constrained by both local environmental and social factors. Agriculturalists, especially those living in pre-industrial societies, are particularly susceptible to changes in precipitation. The Tell Leilan Regional Survey, which systematically studied sites in a 1650km2 area of Northeastern Syria, records one set of adaptations to this event in an area where dry-farming provided the subsistence base. The survey transect crosses ecotones, from the present 500mm isohyet in the North to the 250mm isohyet in the South, and contains diverse wadi systems, ground water resources, soil profiles, and an ancient marsh/lake-- all of which allow this region to be taken as a microcosm of Northern Mesopotamia. In order to contextualize our study of human response to abrupt climate change, it is necessary to consider how the economic and social systems that were previously in place were transformed by this event. This study attempts to quantify climate change and model its effects on agricultural, pastoral, and settlement systems in Northeastern Syria from 2400-1700 BC. From 2400-2300 BC, optimal climate conditions coincided with the consolidation of an indigenous state. The next century witnessed the Akkadian conquest and imperialization of the Habur plains, which resulted in both the intensification and extensification of agro-production. During the next 300 years, (2200-1900 BC), rainfall plummeted to 70% of the climatic optimum, triggering the abandonment of cities along with their

  16. Effects of climate change on Pacific Northwest water-related resources: Summary of preliminary findings

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, M.J.; Sands, R.D.; Vail, L.W.; Chatters, J.C.; Neitzel, D.A.; Shankle, S.A.

    1993-12-01

    The Pacific Northwest Case Study is a multi-agency analysis of atmospheric/climatic change impacts on the Pacific Northwest (which includes Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and portions of the Columbia River Basin in Western Montana). The purpose of the case study, which began in fiscal year 1991, was to develop and test analytical tools, as well as to develop an assessment of the effects of climate change on climate-sensitive natural resources of the Pacific Northwest and economic sectors dependent on them. The overall study, jointly funded by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the US Environmental Protection Agency, was a broad-based, reconnaissance-level study to identify potential climate impacts on agriculture, coastal resources, forest resources, and irrigation in the Pacific Northwest. DOE participated in the reconnaissance study, with responsibility for hydroelectric and water supply issues. While this report briefly discusses a broader array of water issues, attention is mainly focused on three aspects of the water study: (1) the effects of the region`s higher temperatures on the demand for electric power (which in turn puts additional demand on hydroelectric resources of the region); (2) the effects of higher temperatures and changes, both in precipitation amounts and seasonality, on river flows and hydroelectric supply; and (3) the effect of higher temperatures and changed precipitation amounts and seasonality on salmonid resources -- particularly the rearing conditions in tributaries of the Columbia River Basin. Because the meaning of regional climate forecasts is still quite uncertain, most of the preliminary findings are based on sensitivity analyses and historical analog climate scenarios.

  17. Biophysical impacts of climate-smart agriculture in the Midwest United States.

    PubMed

    Bagley, Justin E; Miller, Jesse; Bernacchi, Carl J

    2015-09-01

    The potential impacts of climate change in the Midwest United States present unprecedented challenges to regional agriculture. In response to these challenges, a variety of climate-smart agricultural methodologies have been proposed to retain or improve crop yields, reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, retain soil quality and increase climate resilience of agricultural systems. One component that is commonly neglected when assessing the environmental impacts of climate-smart agriculture is the biophysical impacts, where changes in ecosystem fluxes and storage of moisture and energy lead to perturbations in local climate and water availability. Using a combination of observational data and an agroecosystem model, a series of climate-smart agricultural scenarios were assessed to determine the biophysical impacts these techniques have in the Midwest United States. The first scenario extended the growing season for existing crops using future temperature and CO2 concentrations. The second scenario examined the biophysical impacts of no-till agriculture and the impacts of annually retaining crop debris. Finally, the third scenario evaluated the potential impacts that the adoption of perennial cultivars had on biophysical quantities. Each of these scenarios was found to have significant biophysical impacts. However, the timing and magnitude of the biophysical impacts differed between scenarios. PMID:25393245

  18. Potential implications of climate change for US agriculture. Staff paper

    SciTech Connect

    Kaiser, H.M.; Riha, S.J.; Wilks, D.S.; Sampath, R.

    1995-10-01

    The report examines potential agronomic and economic effects of several assumed changed-climate scenarios grain farming in the United States. The analysis is based on a protocol that links climatic, agronomic, and economic models to form an integrated model. Three assumed climate scenarios are investigated for their relative effects on crop yields, cropping patterns, and farm-level profitability. The climate scenarios are simulated for representative farms in Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, Ohio, Georgia, and North Carolina.

  19. Climatic Data Integration and Analysis - Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH PNA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seamon, E.; Gessler, P. E.; Flathers, E.; Sheneman, L.; Gollberg, G.

    2013-12-01

    The Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH PNA) is a five-year USDA/NIFA-funded coordinated agriculture project to examine the sustainability of cereal crop production systems in the Pacific Northwest, in relationship to ongoing climate change. As part of this effort, an extensive data management system has been developed to enable researchers, students, and the public, to upload, manage, and analyze various data. The REACCH PNA data management team has developed three core systems to encompass cyberinfrastructure and data management needs: 1) the reacchpna.org portal (https://www.reacchpna.org) is the entry point for all public and secure information, with secure access by REACCH PNA members for data analysis, uploading, and informational review; 2) the REACCH PNA Data Repository is a replicated, redundant database server environment that allows for file and database storage and access to all core data; and 3) the REACCH PNA Libraries which are functional groupings of data for REACCH PNA members and the public, based on their access level. These libraries are accessible thru our https://www.reacchpna.org portal. The developed system is structured in a virtual server environment (data, applications, web) that includes a geospatial database/geospatial web server for web mapping services (ArcGIS Server), use of ESRI's Geoportal Server for data discovery and metadata management (under the ISO 19115-2 standard), Thematic Realtime Environmental Distributed Data Services (THREDDS) for data cataloging, and Interactive Python notebook server (IPython) technology for data analysis. REACCH systems are housed and maintained by the Northwest Knowledge Network project (www.northwestknowledge.net), which provides data management services to support research. Initial project data harvesting and meta-tagging efforts have resulted in the interrogation and loading of over 10 terabytes of climate model output, regional entomological data

  20. Climatic water balance and agricultural productivity dynamics in Dobrogea, southeastern Romania, against the background of climate change over the past decades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bandoc, Georgeta; Pravalie, Remus

    2015-04-01

    Interdisciplinary analyses of the relationship between climate system dynamics and agricultural system variation are an essential component for increasing the efficiency of water resource management, and for adapting crops at local level. This paper analyzes the dynamics of the climate water balance (CWB) in the past five decades in Romania's most arid region, Dobrogea, against the background of climate change, as well as the statistical relationship between the variation of CWB values and that of regional agricultural systems. Thus, a first stage consisted in detailed climatic analyses of CWB value variation between 1961 and 2009, based on climatic data provided by 9 regional weather stations. The study mainly focused on CWB trends (mm) recorded annually and seasonally (winter, spring, summer and autumn), using statistical methods such as the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope method, as well as GIS methods in order to visualize the results. The second main stage was directed towards the analysis of the statistical relationship between the aforementioned climate indicator's dynamics and agricultural yields (t / ha / year) in the administrative-territorial units overlapping Dobrogea (generally the plateau region), while corn was considered for the case study as it is one of the region's main crops. In this instance, the agro-climatic data were analyzed / statistically correlated in the 1990-2003 period (depending on data availability for corn production output at administrative unit level), based on Thiessen-Voronoi polygons which were considered to be compact spatial units in which both data categories can be grouped in order to establish interannual relationships. In terms of climate, the results indicated an annual increase of the climatic water deficit at the stations located in the northern region of the study area, with maximum rates of -3.2 mm / year. In contrast, CWB values decreased seasonally (the climatic water deficit increased) roughly throughout

  1. Using Bayesian methods to predict climate impacts on groundwater availability and agricultural production in Punjab, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russo, T. A.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.

    2015-12-01

    Lasting success of the Green Revolution in Punjab, India relies on continued availability of local water resources. Supplying primarily rice and wheat for the rest of India, Punjab supports crop irrigation with a canal system and groundwater, which is vastly over-exploited. The detailed data required to physically model future impacts on water supplies agricultural production is not readily available for this region, therefore we use Bayesian methods to estimate hydrologic properties and irrigation requirements for an under-constrained mass balance model. Using measured values of historical precipitation, total canal water delivery, crop yield, and water table elevation, we present a method using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to solve for a distribution of values for each unknown parameter in a conceptual mass balance model. Due to heterogeneity across the state, and the resolution of input data, we estimate model parameters at the district-scale using spatial pooling. The resulting model is used to predict the impact of precipitation change scenarios on groundwater availability under multiple cropping options. Predicted groundwater declines vary across the state, suggesting that crop selection and water management strategies should be determined at a local scale. This computational method can be applied in data-scarce regions across the world, where water resource management is required to resolve competition between food security and available resources in a changing climate.

  2. Identifying Decision Support Tools to Bridge Climate and Agricultural Needs in the Midwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hall, B. L.; Kluck, D. R.; Hatfield, J.; Black, C.; Kellner, O.; Woloszyn, M.; Timlin, M. S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate monitoring tools designed to help stakeholders reduce climate impacts have been developed for the primary Midwest field crops of corn and soybean. However, the region also produces vital livestock and specialty crops that currently lack similar climate monitoring and projection tools. In autumn 2015, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) partnered with the US Department of Agriculture's Midwest Climate Hub to convene agriculture stakeholders, climate scientists, and climate service specialists to discuss climate impacts and needs for these two, often under-represented, sectors. The goals of this workshop were to (1) identify climate impacts that specialty crops and livestock producers face within the Midwest, (2) develop an understanding of the types of climate and weather information and tools currently available in the Midwest that could be applied to decision making, and (3) discover the types of climate and weather information and tools needed to address concerns of specialty crop and livestock commodities across the Midwest. This presentation will discuss the workshop and provide highlights of the outcomes that developed into strategic plans for the future to better serve these sectors of agriculture in the Midwest.

  3. Agriculture and the recent [open quotes]Benign Climate[close quotes] in Minnesota

    SciTech Connect

    Baker, D.G.; Ruschy, D.L.; Skaggs, R.H. )

    1993-06-01

    This work provides data supporting a little noticed but remarkably consistent and agriculturally favorable climatic period existed for approximately 18 years, beginning in the mid-1950s in the US Corn Belt and perhaps even earlier in Minnesota. The full application of technology to agriculture was delayed due to world political events (World War II and the Korean conflict, for example) until the 1950s. It is concluded that from then until about 1974, the interaction between this favorable climatic period and the applied technology and the enthusiasm they engendered in agricultural circles were subtle and unrealized factors that helped lead to the agricultural inflation of the 1970s, while the unexpected and generally unrecognized cessation of the [open quotes]benign[close quotes] climate must be considered as a factor leading to the agricultural depression in the 1980s. 17 refs., 10 figs.

  4. Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Lebanon - a Look Crop Water Consumptive Use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farajalla, N. F.

    2009-04-01

    Potential climate change impacts on Lebanon could be harsh as a result of increased temperature which could eventually lead to loss of vegetative cover. Rising temperatures in a range of 1.8-4.0 oC as projected by the Intergovernmental Climate Change IPCC in 2007 would lead to a reduction in the snow cap of mountainous areas in Lebanon. This would result in increased surface runoff and reduced recharge of groundwater. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on water resources in Lebanon by delving into plant consumptive use of water at different vegetation scales using the CROPWAT model (FAO, 1992). Baseline climatic data (temperature, humidity, wind speed and daily sunshine) based on available 30 years data series (1956-2002) were used. The paper will evaluate the sensitivity of evapotranspiration to climate change by determining crop water requirement under scenarios of varying temperature and relative humidity. CROPWAT will be used to analyze the water consumption by plants in two differently sized watersheds with a variety of vegetative covers (forest, shrub, agricultural, etc.) and in different agroclimatic regions - namely Wadi Barsa lying on the coastal strip and Wadi Charbine located inland. The work is on-going and it is expected that by the time of presentation at the conference the authors will be able to present results indicating whether available precipitation will be sufficient for maintaining groundcover and agricultural crops in the two agroclimatic regions of Lebanon.

  5. Climate-Smart Landscapes for Managing Water Resources in the Tea Growing Regions of Northeast India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, N.; Biggs, E. M.; Saikia, S. D.; Duncan, J.

    2015-12-01

    Tea is an important global agricultural commodity, both commercially and culturally. Assam, an agrarian state in northeast India is the largest single tea growing region in the world and the productivity (both in terms of quantity and quality) requires a specific range of enviro-climatic conditions. Precipitation and temperature are two climate factors which highly influence productivity. Thus water plays a critical role in sustaining future tea production in Assam. Recently the region has been affected by heterogeneous spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and rising temperatures. This has led to temporally varying drought-like conditions during the tea production season, reducing crop resilience and degrading yield quality. Quantifying regional climate-yield characteristics enables more effective decision-making regarding climate change mitigation, water resources management and adaptation to sustain (and enhance) future tea crop production. This research used a panel based regression model to statistically quantify the extent to which precipitation and temperature variables are associated with changes in tea yield. Monthly time-series climate and yield data were regressed for the period 2004 to 2014. Yield data were obtained from 80 tea estates across the four main tea growing regions of Assam, and 120 climate variables were selected for analysis. Results indicate that periods of drought (e.g. more than 10 consecutive days of zero precipitation) are significantly associated with reductions in yield, whereas periods of intense precipitation (e.g. number of days where the 95th percentile was exceeded) are generally associated with increased yield. These results have provided an enhanced understanding of climate-yield characteristics, which will subsequently be used to deliver more climate-smart advisory decision-support services to tea producers in the region. Although water resources management practices, such as water harvesting structures, check dams

  6. An Integrated Systems Approach to Designing Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Water Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryu, D.; Malano, H. M.; Davidson, B.; George, B.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change projections are characterised by large uncertainties with rainfall variability being the key challenge in designing adaptation policies. Climate change adaptation in water resources shows all the typical characteristics of 'wicked' problems typified by cognitive uncertainty as new scientific knowledge becomes available, problem instability, knowledge imperfection and strategic uncertainty due to institutional changes that inevitably occur over time. Planning that is characterised by uncertainties and instability requires an approach that can accommodate flexibility and adaptive capacity for decision-making. An ability to take corrective measures in the event that scenarios and responses envisaged initially derive into forms at some future stage. We present an integrated-multidisciplinary and comprehensive framework designed to interface and inform science and decision making in the formulation of water resource management strategies to deal with climate change in the Musi Catchment of Andhra Pradesh, India. At the core of this framework is a dialogue between stakeholders, decision makers and scientists to define a set of plausible responses to an ensemble of climate change scenarios derived from global climate modelling. The modelling framework used to evaluate the resulting combination of climate scenarios and adaptation responses includes the surface and groundwater assessment models (SWAT & MODFLOW) and the water allocation modelling (REALM) to determine the water security of each adaptation strategy. Three climate scenarios extracted from downscaled climate models were selected for evaluation together with four agreed responses—changing cropping patterns, increasing watershed development, changing the volume of groundwater extraction and improving irrigation efficiency. Water security in this context is represented by the combination of level of water availability and its associated security of supply for three economic activities (agriculture

  7. Enriching the Description of Learning Resources on Disaster Risk Reduction in the Agricultural Domain: An Ontological Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zschocke, Thomas; Villagrán de León, Juan Carlos; Beniest, Jan

    The collection, compilation and dissemination of relevant information and knowledge about the risk of natural disasters is a critical element in the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 for disaster risk reduction. Knowledge, innovation and education are needed not only to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels, but also to mainstream disaster risk reduction especially in weather and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture. Describing learning resources about these topics with semantic metadata enhances their availability and further facilitates the search and retrieval process by using richer annotations based on ontologies. This paper reports about ongoing work concerning the creation of a domain ontology based on AGROVOC as well as the UN/ISDR and related terminology on disaster risk reduction for the description of associated learning resources in the agricultural domain.

  8. Estimating the effects of potential climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes of a large agriculture dominated watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neupane, Ram P.; Kumar, Sandeep

    2015-10-01

    Land use and climate are two major components that directly influence catchment hydrologic processes, and therefore better understanding of their effects is crucial for future land use planning and water resources management. We applied Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess the effects of potential land use change and climate variability on hydrologic processes of large agriculture dominated Big Sioux River (BSR) watershed located in North Central region of USA. Future climate change scenarios were simulated using average output of temperature and precipitation data derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B, and A2) for end-21st century. Land use change was modeled spatially based on historic long-term pattern of agricultural transformation in the basin, and included the expansion of corn (Zea mays L.) cultivation by 2, 5, and 10%. We estimated higher surface runoff in all land use scenarios with maximum increase of 4% while expanding 10% corn cultivation in the basin. Annual stream discharge was estimated higher with maximum increase of 72% in SRES-B1 attributed from higher groundwater contribution of 152% in the same scenario. We assessed increased precipitation during spring season but the summer precipitation decreased substantially in all climate change scenarios. Similar to decreased summer precipitation, discharge of the BSR also decreased potentially affecting agricultural production due to reduced future water availability during crop growing season in the basin. However, combined effects of potential land use change with climate variability enhanced for higher annual discharge of the BSR. Therefore, these estimations can be crucial for implications of future land use planning and water resources management of the basin.

  9. Using climate model output to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources

    SciTech Connect

    Cushman, R.M.

    1990-01-01

    The use of general circulation models (GCMs) to provide climate data for regional assessments of the impacts of changing climate on water resources stretches the limits of what the models were designed for. Problems that must be addressed include disagreement on a regional scale among GCMs and between the modeled and observed climate; coarse spatial resolution of the models; and simplistic representation of surface hydrology. It is important that continued progress be made in developing the methodology for using GCM output in climate-impact assessments. 18 refs.

  10. Potential impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture of a semi-arid basin in Jordan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Al-Bakri, Jawad; Suleiman, Ayman; Abdulla, Fayez; Ayad, Jamal

    Rainfed agriculture in Jordan is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change, as the available water and land resources are limited and most of the country’s land is arid. In this study, a crop simulation model (DSSAT) was used to assess the impact of different climate change scenarios on rainfed wheat and barley in the Yarmouk basin in Jordan. Analysis of observed crop data showed differences between cultivated and harvested areas for both crops in the study area with variations among years. Results from DSSAT model for years showed that it was able to capture the trend of yield over the years realistically well. The model predicted an average yield of wheat of 1176 kg ha -1, which was close to the average (1173 kg ha -1) obtained from the data of department of statistics (DOS), and an average predicted yield of barley was 927 kg ha -1 while the DOS average was 922 kg ha -1, with higher RMSE for barley (476 kg ha -1) than for wheat (319 kg ha -1). Results for predicting future yield of both crops showed that the responses of wheat and barley were different under different climate change scenarios. The reduction of rainfall by 10-20% reduced the expected yield by 4-8% for barley and 10-20% for wheat, respectively. The increase in rainfall by 10-20% increased the expected yield by 3-5% for barley and 9-18% for wheat, respectively. The increase of air temperature by 1, 2, 3 and 4 °C resulted in deviation from expected yield by -14%, -28%, -38% and -46% for barley and -17%, +4%, +43% and +113% for wheat, respectively. These results indicated that barley would be more negatively affected by the climate change scenarios and therefore adaptation plans should prioritize the arid areas cultivated with this crop.

  11. The historical impact of climate extremes on global agricultural production and trade

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troy, T. J.; Pal, I.; Block, P. J.; Lall, U.

    2011-12-01

    How does climate variability at interannual time scales impact the volume and prices of key agricultural products on the global market? Do concurrent climate shocks in major breadbaskets of the world have serious impacts on global stocks and food prices? To what extent may irrigated agriculture or food storage buffer such impacts? Is there evidence of such impacts and/or buffering in the publicly available historical data? This talk explores these questions through empirical data analysis. During the past two years, we have seen drought in China, Europe, and Russia and floods in the United States and Australia. In this study, we examine the relationship between climate and crop yields, focusing on three main grain staples: wheat, rice, and maize. To do this, we use global production, trade, and stock data from the Food and Agricultural Organization and the United States Department of Agriculture for agriculture information and gridded observations of temperature and precipitation from 1960 through 2008. We focus on the impact of climate shocks (extreme temperatures, drought, and floods) on the agricultural production for the top exporting countries and quantify how these shocks propagate through the country's exports, imports, and grain stocks in order to understand the effect climate variability and extremes have on global food security. The ability to forecast these climate shocks at seasonal to longer lead times would significantly improve our ability to cope with perturbations in the global food supply, and we evaluate the ability of current models to produce skillful seasonal forecasts over the major grain producing regions.

  12. Climate Forcing Datasets for Agricultural Modeling: Merged Products for Gap-Filling and Historical Climate Series Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Goldberg, Richard; Chryssanthacopoulos, James

    2014-01-01

    The AgMERRA and AgCFSR climate forcing datasets provide daily, high-resolution, continuous, meteorological series over the 1980-2010 period designed for applications examining the agricultural impacts of climate variability and climate change. These datasets combine daily resolution data from retrospective analyses (the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, CFSR) with in situ and remotely-sensed observational datasets for temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, leading to substantial reductions in bias in comparison to a network of 2324 agricultural-region stations from the Hadley Integrated Surface Dataset (HadISD). Results compare favorably against the original reanalyses as well as the leading climate forcing datasets (Princeton, WFD, WFD-EI, and GRASP), and AgMERRA distinguishes itself with substantially improved representation of daily precipitation distributions and extreme events owing to its use of the MERRA-Land dataset. These datasets also peg relative humidity to the maximum temperature time of day, allowing for more accurate representation of the diurnal cycle of near-surface moisture in agricultural models. AgMERRA and AgCFSR enable a number of ongoing investigations in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and related research networks, and may be used to fill gaps in historical observations as well as a basis for the generation of future climate scenarios.

  13. CO/sub 2/-induced climate change and forest resources

    SciTech Connect

    Graham, R.L.; Turner, M.G.; Dale, V.H.

    1988-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to examine potential forest responses to increases in atmospheric CO/sub 2/ and to CO/sub 2/-induced climate change. Forests both affect and respond to changes in atmospheric CO/sub 2/ and climate. Forests directly affect climate at the global scale by altering the earth's albedo, hydrological regimes, and atmospheric CO/sub 2/. At a local scale they can alter air temperature, humidity, and solar radiation. In turn, forests are affected by CO/sub 2/ and climate at many spatial and temporal scales. Forest responses to CO/sub 2/ and climate may be examined by using five biotic paradigms. Each paradigm has its own spatial and temporal scale and its own set of unique phenomena responsive to CO/sub 2/ and climate changes. We will first use these paradigms to review forest responses to CO/sub 2/ and climate. We will then describe the linkages between these paradigms and the implications of these linkages for future research on the impact of elevated atmospheric CO/sub 2/ and climate change on forest resources. 51 refs., 1 fig.

  14. Climate impacts on European agriculture and water management in the context of adaptation and mitigation--the importance of an integrated approach.

    PubMed

    Falloon, Pete; Betts, Richard

    2010-11-01

    We review and qualitatively assess the importance of interactions and feedbacks in assessing climate change impacts on water and agriculture in Europe. We focus particularly on the impact of future hydrological changes on agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and adaptation options. Future projected trends in European agriculture include northward movement of crop suitability zones and increasing crop productivity in Northern Europe, but declining productivity and suitability in Southern Europe. This may be accompanied by a widening of water resource differences between the North and South, and an increase in extreme rainfall events and droughts. Changes in future hydrology and water management practices will influence agricultural adaptation measures and alter the effectiveness of agricultural mitigation strategies. These interactions are often highly complex and influenced by a number of factors which are themselves influenced by climate. Mainly positive impacts may be anticipated for Northern Europe, where agricultural adaptation may be shaped by reduced vulnerability of production, increased water supply and reduced water demand. However, increasing flood hazards may present challenges for agriculture, and summer irrigation shortages may result from earlier spring runoff peaks in some regions. Conversely, the need for effective adaptation will be greatest in Southern Europe as a result of increased production vulnerability, reduced water supply and increased demands for irrigation. Increasing flood and drought risks will further contribute to the need for robust management practices. The impacts of future hydrological changes on agricultural mitigation in Europe will depend on the balance between changes in productivity and rates of decomposition and GHG emission, both of which depend on climatic, land and management factors. Small increases in European soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks per unit land area are anticipated considering changes in climate

  15. US water resources versus an announced but uncertain climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Waggoner, P.E. )

    1991-03-01

    The problems that arise in global temperature caused by the greenhouse gases are very troublesome for all of the 21 American water-resource regions. Five warning signals of vulnerability of water supplies to climate changes are the ratio of consumption and storage to supply, the ratio of vulnerability to runoff, dependence on hydroelectric power, and overdrawing of ground water. The leverage of climate upon future water resources is generally known, but the lack of the needed predictions of climate at hand or in the very near future frustrates the determination of future water resources. It is predicted that 10 to 50 years will pass before a concensus is reached about predictions of regional precipitation and runoff, and this lack of imminent prediction of water supplies (related to climate changes) necessitates the immediate need for coping with present variability to prepare for climate changes. Conservation and diversification also constitute practical precautions for water shortages. Thus the need for more accurate forecasting for a single season is of paramount importance.

  16. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  17. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

    2015-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  18. WORKSHOP ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    How might a changing climate impact agricultural productivity in the Great Lakes region? How might it affect a farmer's choice of crops or economic risk? What impacts could the development of wind power have on agricultural land owners? These and other questions will be explored ...

  19. Interactive effects of reactive nitrogen and climate change on US water resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baron, J.; Bernhardt, E. S.; Finlay, J. C.; Chan, F.; Nolan, B. T.; Howarth, B.; Hall, E.; Boyer, E. W.

    2011-12-01

    Water resources and aquatic ecosystems are increasingly strained by withdrawals for agriculture and drinking water supply, nitrogen and other pollutant inputs, and climate change. We describe current and projected effects of the interactions of reactive nitrogen (N) and climate change on water resources of the United States. As perturbations to the N cycle intensify in a warmer less predictable climate, interactions will negatively affect the services we expect of our water resources. There are also feedbacks to the climate system itself through the production of greenhouse gases. We conclude: 1. Nitrogen concentrations will increase in the nation's waters from increased N loading and higher N mineralization rates. N export from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems exhibits a high sensitivity to climate variations. 2. Consequences range from eutrophication and acidification, which reduce natural biodiversity and harm economically valuable fisheries, to adverse impacts on human health. 3. Extreme flood events have the potential to transport N rapidly long distances downstream from its source. 4. A recent national assessment found 67% of streams derived more than 37% of their total nitrate load from base flow often derived from groundwater. Long residence times for groundwater nitrate below agricultural fields may cause benefits from proper N management practices to take decades to be realized under current and future climates. 5. Streams, wetlands, rivers, lakes, estuaries and continental shelves are hotspots for denitrification. Maintenance of N removal capacity thus a critical component of eutrophication management under changing climate and land use conditions. 6. The amount of N inputs from fertilizer and manure use, human population, and deposition is tightly coupled with hydrology to influence the rates and proportion of N emitted to the atmosphere as N2O. About 20% of global N2O emissions come from groundwater, lakes, rivers, and estuaries; stream and wetland

  20. Climate change and agricultural development: adapting Polish agriculture to reduce future nutrient loads in a coastal watershed.

    PubMed

    Piniewski, Mikołaj; Kardel, Ignacy; Giełczewski, Marek; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Okruszko, Tomasz

    2014-09-01

    Currently, there is a major concern about the future of nutrient loads discharged into the Baltic Sea from Polish rivers because they are main contributors to its eutrophication. To date, no watershed-scale studies have properly addressed this issue. This paper fills this gap by using a scenario-modeling framework applied in the Reda watershed, a small (482 km²) agricultural coastal area in northern Poland. We used the SWAT model to quantify the effects of future climate, land cover, and management changes under multiple scenarios up to the 2050s. The combined effect of climate and land use change on N-NO3 and P-PO4 loads is an increase by 20-60 and 24-31 %, respectively, depending on the intensity of future agricultural usage. Using a scenario that assumes a major shift toward a more intensive agriculture following the Danish model would bring significantly higher crop yields but cause a great deterioration of water quality. Using vegetative cover in winter and spring (VC) would be a very efficient way to reduce future P-PO4 loads so that they are lower than levels observed at present. However, even the best combination of measures (VC, buffer zones, reduced fertilization, and constructed wetlands) would not help to remediate heavily increased N-NO3 loads due to climate change and agricultural intensification. PMID:24154850

  1. Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change as Revealed by Relationships between Simulated Crop Yield and Climate Change Indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, A. W.; Absar, S. M.; Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.

    2012-12-01

    The vulnerability of agriculture is among the leading concerns surrounding climate change. Agricultural production is influenced by drought and other extremes in weather and climate. In regions of subsistence farming, worst case reductions in yield lead to malnutrition and famine. Reduced surplus contributes to poverty in agrarian economies. In more economically diverse and industrialized regions, variations in agricultural yield can influence the regional economy through market mechanisms. The latter grows in importance as agriculture increasingly services the energy market in addition to markets for food and fiber. Agriculture is historically a highly adaptive enterprise and will respond to future changes in climate with a variety of adaptive mechanisms. Nonetheless, the risk, if not expectation, of increases in climate extremes and hazards exceeding historical experience motivates scientifically based anticipatory assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. We investigate the sensitivity component of that vulnerability using EPIC, a well established field-scale model of cropping systems that includes the simulation of economic yield. The core of our analysis is the relationship between simulated yield and various indices of climate change, including the CCI/CLIVAR/JCOM ETCCDI indices, calculated from weather inputs to the model. We complement this core with analysis using the DSSAT cropping system model and exploration of relationships between historical yield statistics and climate indices calculated from weather records. Our analyses are for sites in the Southeast/Gulf Coast region of the United States. We do find "tight" monotonic relationships between annual yield and climate for some indices, especially those associated with available water. More commonly, however, we find an increase in the variability of yield as the index value becomes more extreme. Our findings contribute to understanding the sensitivity of crop yield as part of

  2. Co-Adapting Water Demand and Supply to Changing Climate in Agricultural Water Systems, A Case Study in Northern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giuliani, M.; Li, Y.; Mainardi, M.; Arias Munoz, C.; Castelletti, A.; Gandolfi, C.

    2013-12-01

    Exponentially growing water demands and increasing uncertainties in the hydrologic cycle due to changes in climate and land use will challenge water resources planning and management in the next decade. Improving agricultural productivity is particularly critical, being this sector the one characterized by the highest water demand. Moreover, to meet projected growth in human population and per-capita food demand, agricultural production will have to significantly increase in the next decades, even though water availability is expected to decrease due to climate change impacts. Agricultural systems are called to adapt their strategies (e.g., changing crop patterns and the corresponding water demand, or maximizing the efficiency in the water supply modifying irrigation scheduling and adopting high efficiency irrigation techniques) in order to re-optimize the use of limited water resources. Although many studies have assessed climate change impacts on agricultural practices and water management, most of them assume few scenarios of water demand or water supply separately, while an analysis of their reciprocal feedbacks is still missing. Moreover, current practices are generally established according to historical agreements and normative constraints and, in the absence of dramatic failures, the shift toward more efficient water management is not easily achievable. In this work, we propose to activate an information loop between farmers and water managers to improve the effectiveness of agricultural water management practices by matching the needs of the farmers with the design of water supply strategies. The proposed approach is tested on a real-world case study, namely the Lake Como serving the Muzza-Bassa Lodigiana irrigation district (Italy). A distributed-parameter, dynamic model of the system allows to simulate crop growth and the final yield over a range of hydro-climatic conditions, irrigation strategies and water-related stresses. The spatial component of the

  3. Integrated Modeling to Assess the Impacts of Changes in Climate and Socio Economics on Agriculture in the Columbia River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajagopalan, K.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Adam, J. C.; Malek, K.; Nelson, R.; Stockle, C.; Brady, M.; Dinesh, S.; Barber, M. E.; Yorgey, G.; Kruger, C.

    2012-12-01

    The objective of this work is to assess the impacts of climate change and socio economics on agriculture in the Columbia River basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. and a portion of Southwestern Canada. The water resources of the CRB are managed to satisfy multiple objectives including agricultural withdrawal, which is the largest consumptive user of CRB water with 14,000 square kilometers of irrigated area. Agriculture is an important component of the region's economy, with an annual value over 5 billion in Washington State alone. Therefore, the region is relevant for applying a modeling framework that can aid agriculture decision making in the context of a changing climate. To do this, we created an integrated biophysical and socio-economic regional modeling framework that includes human and natural systems. The modeling framework captures the interactions between climate, hydrology, crop growth dynamics, water management and socio economics. The biophysical framework includes a coupled macro-scale physically-based hydrology model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC model), and crop growth model (CropSyst), as well as a reservoir operations simulation model. Water rights data and instream flow target requirements are also incorporated in the model to simulate the process of curtailment during water shortage. The economics model informs the biophysical model of the short term agricultural producer response to water shortage as well as the long term agricultural producer response to domestic growth and international trade in terms of an altered cropping pattern. The modeling framework was applied over the CRB for the historical period 1976-2006 and compared to a future 30-year period centered on the 2030s. Impacts of climate change on irrigation water availability, crop irrigation demand, frequency of curtailment, and crop yields are quantified and presented. Sensitivity associated with estimates of water availability, irrigation demand, crop

  4. Agroclimate.Org: Tools and Information for a Climate Resilient Agriculture in the Southeast USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fraisse, C.

    2014-12-01

    AgroClimate (http://agroclimate.org) is a web-based system developed to help the agricultural industry in the southeastern USA reduce risks associated with climate variability and change. It includes climate related information and dynamic application tools that interact with a climate and crop database system. Information available includes climate monitoring and forecasts combined with information about crop management practices that help increase the resiliency of the agricultural industry in the region. Recently we have included smartphone apps in the AgroClimate suite of tools, including irrigation management and crop disease alert systems. Decision support tools available in AgroClimate include: (a) Climate risk: expected (probabilistic) and historical climate information and freeze risk; (b) Crop yield risk: expected yield based on soil type, planting date, and basic management practices for selected commodities and historical county yield databases; (c) Crop diseases: disease risk monitoring and forecasting for strawberry and citrus; (d) Crop development: monitoring and forecasting of growing degree-days and chill accumulation; (e) Drought: monitoring and forecasting of selected drought indices, (f) Footprints: Carbon and water footprint calculators. The system also provides background information about the main drivers of climate variability and basic information about climate change in the Southeast USA. AgroClimate has been widely used as an educational tool by the Cooperative Extension Services in the region and also by producers. It is now being replicated internationally with version implemented in Mozambique and Paraguay.

  5. Branching out: Agroforestry as a climate change mitigation and adaptation tool for agriculture

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The United States and Canadian agricultural lands are being targeted to provide more environmental and economic services while at the same time their capacity to provide these services under potential climate change (CC) is being questioned. Predictions of future climate conditions include longer gr...

  6. Does climatic variability influence agricultural land prices under differing uses? The Texas High Plains case

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Texas High Plains faces projections of increasing temperature and declining precipitation in the future on account of its semi-arid climate. This research evaluated the impact of climatic variability on agricultural land prices under different land uses in the Texas High Plains, employing the Ri...

  7. Guiding climate change adaptation within vulnerable natural resource management systems.

    PubMed

    Bardsley, Douglas K; Sweeney, Susan M

    2010-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making. PMID:20383706

  8. Guiding Climate Change Adaptation Within Vulnerable Natural Resource Management Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bardsley, Douglas K.; Sweeney, Susan M.

    2010-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

  9. Interactions of U.S. Agricultural Production with Climatic Stresses and Reactive Nitrogen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gehl, R. J.; Robertson, G. P.; Bruulsema, T. W.; Kanter, D.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Rotz, C. A.; Williams, C. O.

    2011-12-01

    Agricultural production both contributes to and responds to climatic variations across spatial and temporal continuums. The agriculture sector is responsible for over 6% of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, primarily as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) gases emitted by agricultural activities. Agriculture activities specifically account for about 69% of U.S. N2O emissions, largely as a result of production practices including fertilizer management, cropping systems, and manure management. Fertilizers, together with manure and legume fixation, are the three main inputs of N to US agricultural soils. All three sources have been increasing over the past two decades, while the rate at which they are removed in the form of harvested crops has been increasing at a slightly slower rate. The outlook for continued large areas of cultivation in the U.S., specifically for corn production and supported by biofuel production goals, is a major factor in sustaining demand for N fertilizer. However, rising fertilizer prices and environmental pressures on producers are encouraging increased adoption of emerging technologies such as precision agriculture, cultivars with higher N use efficiency, and enhanced-efficiency N sources such as controlled-release forms or forms with urease or nitrification inhibitors. Crop productivity also responds to climatic changes, as crop growth is affected by variables including heat, drought, ozone (O3), and increased ambient carbon dioxide (CO2). We summarize sources and fates of N for cropping systems and intensive animal systems and assess how climate change will affect crop response to and recovery of N and subsequent cascading effects on Nr. The complex interactions between agricultural Nr and climate present opportunities for mitigation/adaption relative to N use. N fertilizer and manure management, tillage, technology, and decision support models provide significant opportunities for climate mitigation and adaption in U.S. agriculture

  10. Water resources under future scenarios of climate change and biofuel development: A case study for Yakima River basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demissie, Y. K.

    2013-12-01

    In recent years, biofuel has become an important renewable energy source with a potential to help mitigate climate change. However, agriculture productivity and its potential use for sustainable production of biofuel are strongly dependent on climate and water conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. For instant in 2012, the US has experienced the most severe drought that results in a 12% decrease in corn production - the main feedstock used for biofuel in US - indicating the vulnerability of biofuel development and policies to change in climate and associated extreme weather conditions. To understand this interrelationship and the combined effects of increased biofuel production and climate change on regional and local water resources, we have applied a SWAT watershed model which integrates future scenarios of climate change and biofuel development and simulates the associated impacts on watershed hydrology, water quality, soil erosion, and agriculture productivity. The study is applied to the Yakima River basin (YRB), which has higher biomass resources in Washington State and represents a region where forestry and agriculture intersect with considerable water shortage as well as spatial variations in annual precipitation. Unlike earlier studies, which commonly define biofuel and climate change scenarios independently, in this study the decision on alternative biofuel feedstock mixes and associated change in land use and management take into account the anticipated climate change. The resulted spatial and temporal distributions of water budget, nutrient loads, and sediment erosion is analyzed to evaluate the effectiveness of biofuel policies under constraints of climate change and water resources in the region.

  11. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE: AN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change and related global concerns dominate the current environmental agenda as evidenced by the recent wave of articles, symposia workshops, and other scientific and lay forms dealing with this issue. hile most atmospheric scientists agree that a climate change "signal" ...

  12. NASA Tools for Climate Impacts on Water Resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Toll, David; Doorn, Brad

    2010-01-01

    Climate and environmental change are expected to fundamentally alter the nation's hydrological cycle and water availability. Satellites provide global or near-global coverage using instruments, allowing for consistent, well-calibrated, and equivalent-quality data of the Earth system. A major goal for NASA climate and environmental change research is to create multi-instrument data sets to span the multi-decadal time scales of climate change and to combine these data with those from modeling and surface-based observing systems to improve process understanding and predictions. NASA and Earth science data and analyses will ultimately enable more accurate climate prediction, and characterization of uncertainties. NASA's Applied Sciences Program works with other groups, including other federal agencies, to transition demonstrated observational capabilities to operational capabilities. A summary of some of NASA tools for improved water resources management will be presented.

  13. Climate change and agriculture: Analysis of potential international impacts

    SciTech Connect

    1995-12-31

    This symposium was held November 4--5, 1992 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The purpose of this conference was to provide a forum for exchange of state-the-art information on the effects of climate change on crop production, either positively or negatively. This publication contains four sections: (1) experimental studies of the responses of cotton and rice to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and to varying temperature and water regimes; (2) simulation methodology studies dealing with the development of modeling techniques to assess the effects of changing carbon dioxide and climate factors on crop growth and yield; (3) regional agronomic implications of climate changes as predicted by global climate models; and (4) economic implications of crop yield changes predicted by climate models. Individual papers have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases.

  14. "Actionable" Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Managers in Southwestern Colorado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.

    2014-12-01

    Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change. To provide such information, we developed narrative scenarios of future climate change and its impacts on different ecosystems in southwestern Colorado. This multi-institution and trans-disciplinary project seeks to provide useful and useable knowledge to facilitate climate change adaptation in the context of uncertainty. The narratives are intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. These scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions between ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal probability as another scenario. Rather than a qualitative narration of the general direction of change and range in responses, we quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. This presentation will discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We will also cover the process by which these scenarios get used, and how the user feedbacks are integrated in further developing the tools and processes.

  15. Modeling U.S. water resources under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanc, Elodie; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, Adam; Jacoby, Henry; Gueneau, Arthur; Fant, Charles; Rausch, Sebastian; Reilly, John

    2014-04-01

    Water is at the center of a complex and dynamic system involving climatic, biological, hydrological, physical, and human interactions. We demonstrate a new modeling system that integrates climatic and hydrological determinants of water supply with economic and biological drivers of sectoral and regional water requirement while taking into account constraints of engineered water storage and transport systems. This modeling system is an extension of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model framework and is unique in its consistent treatment of factors affecting water resources and water requirements. Irrigation demand, for example, is driven by the same climatic conditions that drive evapotranspiration in natural systems and runoff, and future scenarios of water demand for power plant cooling are consistent with energy scenarios driving climate change. To illustrate the modeling system we select "wet" and "dry" patterns of precipitation for the United States from general circulation models used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Results suggest that population and economic growth alone would increase water stress in the United States through mid-century. Climate change generally increases water stress with the largest increases in the Southwest. By identifying areas of potential stress in the absence of specific adaptation responses, the modeling system can help direct attention to water planning that might then limit use or add storage in potentially stressed regions, while illustrating how avoiding climate change through mitigation could change likely outcomes.

  16. Communicating Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector: Insights from Surveys and Interviews with Agricultural Advisors in the Midwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prokopy, L. S.; Carlton, S.; Dunn, M.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding U.S. agricultural stakeholder views about the existence of climate change and what influences these views is central to developing communication in support of adaptation and mitigation. It has been postulated in the literature that extreme weather events can shape people's climate change beliefs and adaptation attitudes. In this presentation, we use data from pre- and post-extreme event surveys and interviews to examine the effects of the 2012 Midwestern US drought on agricultural advisors' climate change beliefs, adaptation attitudes, and risk perceptions. We found that neither climate change beliefs nor attitudes toward adaptation changed significantly as a result of the drought. Risk perceptions did change, however, with advisors becoming more concerned about risks from drought and pests and less concerned about risks related to flooding and ponding. Qualitative interviews revealed that while advisors readily accept the occurrence of extreme weather as a risk, the irregularity and unpredictability of extreme events for specific localities limits day-to-day consideration in respect to prescribed management advice. Instead, advisors' attention is directed towards planning for short-term changes encompassing weather, pests, and the market, as well as planning for long-term trends related to water availability. These findings provide important insights for communicating climate change in this critical sector while illustrating the importance of social science research in planning and executing communication campaigns.

  17. Meeting the Radiative Forcing Targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways with Agricultural Climate Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kyle, P.; Müller, C.; Calvin, K. V.; Thomson, A. M.

    2013-12-01

    The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) have formed the basis for much of the current scientific understanding of future climate change impacts and mitigation. However, the emissions scenarios underlying the RCPs were produced by integrated assessment models that did not include impacts of future climate change on the modeled evolution of the agricultural and energy systems. Given the prominent role of bioenergy in greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, and given the importance of land-use-related emissions in determining future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, it is possible that agricultural climate impacts may cause significant changes to the means and costs of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. This study builds on several international modeling exercises aimed at improving understanding of climate change impacts--CMIP-5 and ISI-MIP--that have generated global gridded climate impacts on yields of major agricultural crops in each of the four RCPs. We use the climate outcomes from the HadGEM2-ES climate model, and the agricultural yield outcomes from the LPJmL crop growth model to inform inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model, allowing analysis of how agricultural climate impacts may affect the long-term global and regional strategies for achieving the greenhouse gas concentration pathways of the RCPs. Our results indicate that for this combination of models and emissions scenarios, strongly negative climate impacts on several major commodity classes--prominently cereals and oil seeds, and particularly in the high-radiative-forcing RCPs--lead to a long-term increase in cropland and therefore land-use-related CO2 emissions. All else equal, this increases the emissions mitigation burden on the rest of the system, and therefore increases total net costs of emissions mitigation. However, the future climate change impacts on C4 bioenergy crops tend to be positive, limiting the shock of agricultural climate impacts on the modeled energy supply and

  18. Estimating the Importance of Private Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture: A Review of Empirical Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, F.; Burke, M.

    2015-12-01

    A wide range of studies using a variety of methods strongly suggest that climate change will have a negative impact on agricultural production in many areas. Farmers though should be able to learn about a changing climate and to adjust what they grow and how they grow it in order to reduce these negative impacts. However, it remains unclear how effective these private (autonomous) adaptations will be, or how quickly they will be adopted. Constraining the uncertainty on this adaptation is important for understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture. Here we review a number of empirical methods that have been proposed for understanding the rate and effectiveness of private adaptation to climate change. We compare these methods using data on agricultural yields in the United States and western Europe.

  19. Earth System Grid II, Turning Climate Datasets into Community Resources

    SciTech Connect

    Middleton, Don

    2006-08-01

    The Earth System Grid (ESG) II project, funded by the Department of Energy’s Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing program, has transformed climate data into community resources. ESG II has accomplished this goal by creating a virtual collaborative environment that links climate centers and users around the world to models and data via a computing Grid, which is based on the Department of Energy’s supercomputing resources and the Internet. Our project’s success stems from partnerships between climate researchers and computer scientists to advance basic and applied research in the terrestrial, atmospheric, and oceanic sciences. By interfacing with other climate science projects, we have learned that commonly used methods to manage and remotely distribute data among related groups lack infrastructure and under-utilize existing technologies. Knowledge and expertise gained from ESG II have helped the climate community plan strategies to manage a rapidly growing data environment more effectively. Moreover, approaches and technologies developed under the ESG project have impacted datasimulation integration in other disciplines, such as astrophysics, molecular biology and materials science.

  20. Agriculture and climate change: Mitigation opportunities and adaptation imperatives

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Maintenance of critical agroecosystem functions will require proactive responses through the strategic application of management practices that mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and/or adapt to impacts from climate change. Numerous management strategies currently exist to mitigate GHG emissio...

  1. Potential impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on future agricultural land use in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farzan Ahmed, Kazi; Wang, Guiling; You, Liangzhi; Yu, Miao

    2016-02-01

    Agriculture is a key component of anthropogenic land use and land cover changes that influence regional climate. Meanwhile, in addition to socioeconomic drivers, climate is another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In this study, we compare the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa using a prototype land use projection (LandPro) algorithm. The algorithm is based on a balance between food supply and demand, and accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. The impact of human decision-making on land use is explicitly considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios. In the application to West Africa, future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate model, and future changes of food demand is projected using a model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. Without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease in crop yield together with future increases in food demand is found to cause a significant increase in cropland areas at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century. The increase in agricultural land use is primarily climate-driven in the western part of West Africa and socioeconomically driven in the eastern part. Analysis of results from multiple scenarios of crop area allocation suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed decision-making can potentially minimize future land use changes in many parts of the region.

  2. Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes

  3. Evaluating climate change impacts and adaptation options for agriculture in West Africa: a multi-model comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sultan, B.; Lobell, D. B.; Biasutti, M.; Guan, K.; Roudier, P.; Piani, C.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is likely to stress food production in many parts of the developing world over the next few decades. In areas such as West Africa, where poor communities are highly dependent on the direct use of local natural resources, the effects of climate change on food security could be particularly devastating. Given these concerns, there is great interest in identifying and investing in technologies or practices that could help farmers adapt to climate variability and change. Recent studies found a robust agreement across the various climate models of the IPCC Coupled Models Inter-comparison Program ensemble on the seasonal distribution of Sahel rainfall changes (with a drying of the early season and positive rainfall anomaly at the end) in contrast with a large uncertainty for summertime rainfall totals. These changes will therefore certainly impact agriculture strategy (selection of new cultivars, later sowing) and output. This study estimates such impacts by using a series of climate scenarios as input for two crop models for multiple locations within West Africa. Simulations are run for the two major crops in the region - sorghum and millets. Building on the above simulations, we then simulate different scenarios of adaptation that could be used to cope with climate changes.

  4. Supervised Occupational Experience Record Book for Agricultural Resource Conservation, Environmental Management and Forestry.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nickles, Tom

    The record book was designed to meet the occupational experience recordkeeping requirements of vocational agriculture students enrolled in forestry, environmental management, or agriculture resource conservation programs in Ohio. It provides guidelines and forms for recording on-the-job, in-the-school lab, and occupational experience project data.…

  5. Agricultural Machinery 01.0301 for Agribusiness, Natural Resources and Environmental Occupations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, John; And Others

    The document presents unit plans which offer lists of experiences and competencies to be learned in the area of agricultural machinery for agribusiness, natural resources, and environmental occupations. The units include: (1) safety; (2) agricultural service center; (3) component parts--bearings, gears, pulleys, clutches, and others; (4) metal…

  6. Labor Resources in the Four Corners Economic Development Region. Four Corners Agricultural and Development Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    New Mexico State Univ., Las Cruces. Agricultural Experiment Station.

    One of five reports developed to summarize research efforts conducted as part of an Agricultural-Forestry Development Project, this report presents the results of an inventory of human resources used in the agricultural and forestry industries in the Four Corners Economic Development Region. Explored are such aspects of labor as: (1) employment…

  7. EX SITU PRESERVATION OF PLANT GENETIC RESOURCES FOR FOOD AND AGRICULTURE

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The US National Plant Germplasm System, (NPGS) a group within the Agricultural Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture, is comprised of over 20 field stations spread throughout the US and is responsible for the preservation and distribution of genetic resources important for ...

  8. Agricultural Safety and Health: A Resource Guide. Rural Information Center Publication Series, No. 40. Revised Edition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zimmerman, Joy, Comp.

    This guide lists resource materials that address agricultural occupational injuries and diseases and their prevention. Many of the entries were derived from the AGRICOLA database produced by the National Agricultural Library and include journal articles, books, government reports, training materials, and audiovisual materials. The first section…

  9. A Survey of Human Resource Management and Qualification Levels in Hungarian Agriculture

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berde, Csaba; Piros, Marta

    2006-01-01

    The question of quality and value of human resources have been at the forefront of Hungarian agriculture for the past few years. The decreasing number of agricultural employees in Hungary in the last decade (1990-2000) is a result of the crisis caused by the change of the socio-economic system rather than economic and technological development.…

  10. Exploring Resource Sharing between Secondary School Teachers of Agriculture and Science Departments Nationally.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dormody, Thomas J.

    1992-01-01

    A survey of 372 secondary agriculture teachers received 274 responses showing a majority of agriculture and science departments share resources, although at low levels. Many more predicted future sharing. Equipment and supplies were most often shared, instructional services least often. (SK)

  11. Quantifying Total and Sustainable Agricultural Biomass Resources in South Dakota

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Conversion of biomass is considered the next major advance in biorenewable fuels, energy, and products. Wholesale conversion to biomass utilization could result in removal of current crop residues from agricultural fields or even implementation of different crops and cropping strategies (i.e., swit...

  12. Climate change adaptation options for sustainable management of agriculture in the Eastern Lower Danube Plain, Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popovici, Elena-Ana; Sima, Mihaela; Balteanu, Dan; Dragota, Carmen-Sofia; Grigorescu, Ines; Kucsicsa, Gheorghe

    2013-04-01

    The current study was carried out within the FP7 ECLISE project in the Eastern Lower Danube Plain (Bărăgan Plain), one of the major agricultural areas in Romania. In this region, climate change signals are becoming more evident being predominantly characterized by increasing temperatures, decreasing of precipitations and intensification of extreme events in terms of frequency, intensity and duration. Over the past decades, the effects of extreme climatic phenomena on crop production have been ever more severe (very low outputs in the droughty years, significant crop losses during flooding periods, hailstorms, etc.). Concurrently, these effects have been the result of a whole range of complex interactions with other environmental, social, economic and political factors over the post-communist period. Using questionnaires survey for small individual households and large agricultural farms, focus group interviews and direct field observation, this study analyses the farmers' perception in terms of climate change, the impact of climate change on agriculture and how the farmers react and adapt to these changes. The current study have revealed that all farmers believe drought as being by far the most important climatic factor with major impact on agricultural production, followed by acid rains, hail storms and ground frost, facts evidenced also by the climatic diagnosis of the region. The majority of respondents have taken adaptation agricultural measures in response to changes in climate conditions (drought resistant seeds, modern technology to keep the moisture in the soil, etc.), but they consider that a national strategy for mitigating the effects of climate change would be more effective in this respect. Also, in order to correlate the farmers' perception of climate change and climatic factors, the authors used and processed a wide range of meteorological data (daily, monthly and annual from the most representative meteorological stations in the study-area), as

  13. Climate sensitivity of DSSAT under different agriculture practice scenarios in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, L.; Robock, A.

    2014-12-01

    Crop yields are sensitive to both agricultural practice and climate changes. Under different agricultural practice scenarios, crop yield may have different climate sensitivities. Since it is important to understand how future climate changes affect agriculture productivity and what the potential adaptation strategies would be to compensate for possible negative impacts on crop production, we performed experiments to study climate sensitivity under different agricultural practice scenarios for rice, maize and wheat in the top four production provinces in China using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model. The agricultural practice scenarios include four categories: different amounts of nitrogen fertilizer or no nitrogen stress; irrigation turned on or off, or no water stress; all possible seeds in the DSSAT cultivar data base; and different planting dates. For the climate sensitivity test, the control climate is from 1998 to 2007, and we individually modify four climate variables: daily maximum and minimum temperature by +2 °C and -2 °C, daily precipitation by +20% and -20%, and daily solar radiation by + 20% and -20%. With more nitrogen fertilizer applied, crops are more sensitive to temperature changes as well as precipitation changes because of their release from nitrogen limitation. With irrigation turned on, crop yield sensitivity to temperature decreases in most of the regions depending on the amount of the local precipitation, since more water is available and soil temperature varies less with higher soil moisture. Those results indicate that there could be possible agriculture adaptation strategies under certain future climate scenarios. For example, increasing nitrogen fertilizer usage by a certain amount might compensate for the negative impact on crop yield from climate changes. However, since crops are more sensitive to climate changes when there is more nitrogen fertilizer applied, if the climate changes are

  14. Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies in Rural Sahel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Reenberg, Anette; Diouf, Awa

    2009-05-01

    Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context, households and groups assign economic, political, and social rather than climate factors as the main reasons for change. It is concluded that the communities studied have a high awareness of climate issues, but climatic narratives are likely to influence responses when questions mention climate. Change in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain climate.

  15. Farmers' perceptions of climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies in rural Sahel.

    PubMed

    Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Reenberg, Anette; Diouf, Awa

    2009-05-01

    Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context, households and groups assign economic, political, and social rather than climate factors as the main reasons for change. It is concluded that the communities studied have a high awareness of climate issues, but climatic narratives are likely to influence responses when questions mention climate. Change in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain climate. PMID:18810526

  16. The sensitivity of agricultural impacts assessment to climate data and scenario methodologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.

    2011-12-01

    Assessments of climate change impacts on the agricultural sector are crucially important from the farm- to global levels. While impacts assessments have made wide and creative use of data products, climate models, and methods for downscaling and scenario generation, this variety also hinders our ability to compare impacts from one study to other assessments. The unique nature of many impacts assessments is especially problematic when evaluating the impacts of climate change on large agricultural regions and global production; a crucial scale in understanding the economic impacts and market influence on food security and land use. This presentation examines the influence of methodological choices on agricultural impacts assessment by describing results from several projects. First, the utility of a wide variety of global and regional observational data products are compared for an agricultural system in the Florida Panhandle to determine the influence of observational uncertainties, reanalysis products, remotely sensed information, and downscaled models on impacts assessment. Second, the role of future climate scenarios is isolated by running the same Panhandle station with scenarios generated through a variety of generation methods with a focus on downscaling methodologies and the climate statistics allowed to change. Finally, an ensemble of weather generators are compared across an ensemble of wheat models in a variety of major agricultural regions, isolating important sensitivities in the crop models and corresponding strengths and weaknesses in the weather generators.

  17. The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare.

    PubMed

    Stevanović, Miodrag; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Müller, Christoph; Bonsch, Markus; Schmitz, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Humpenöder, Florian; Weindl, Isabelle

    2016-08-01

    Climate change threatens agricultural productivity worldwide, resulting in higher food prices. Associated economic gains and losses differ not only by region but also between producers and consumers and are affected by market dynamics. On the basis of an impact modeling chain, starting with 19 different climate projections that drive plant biophysical process simulations and ending with agro-economic decisions, this analysis focuses on distributional effects of high-end climate change impacts across geographic regions and across economic agents. By estimating the changes in surpluses of consumers and producers, we find that climate change can have detrimental impacts on global agricultural welfare, especially after 2050, because losses in consumer surplus generally outweigh gains in producer surplus. Damage in agriculture may reach the annual loss of 0.3% of future total gross domestic product at the end of the century globally, assuming further opening of trade in agricultural products, which typically leads to interregional production shifts to higher latitudes. Those estimated global losses could increase substantially if international trade is more restricted. If beneficial effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization can be realized in agricultural production, much of the damage could be avoided. Although trade policy reforms toward further liberalization help alleviate climate change impacts, additional compensation mechanisms for associated environmental and development concerns have to be considered. PMID:27574700

  18. The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare

    PubMed Central

    Stevanović, Miodrag; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Müller, Christoph; Bonsch, Markus; Schmitz, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Humpenöder, Florian; Weindl, Isabelle

    2016-01-01

    Climate change threatens agricultural productivity worldwide, resulting in higher food prices. Associated economic gains and losses differ not only by region but also between producers and consumers and are affected by market dynamics. On the basis of an impact modeling chain, starting with 19 different climate projections that drive plant biophysical process simulations and ending with agro-economic decisions, this analysis focuses on distributional effects of high-end climate change impacts across geographic regions and across economic agents. By estimating the changes in surpluses of consumers and producers, we find that climate change can have detrimental impacts on global agricultural welfare, especially after 2050, because losses in consumer surplus generally outweigh gains in producer surplus. Damage in agriculture may reach the annual loss of 0.3% of future total gross domestic product at the end of the century globally, assuming further opening of trade in agricultural products, which typically leads to interregional production shifts to higher latitudes. Those estimated global losses could increase substantially if international trade is more restricted. If beneficial effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization can be realized in agricultural production, much of the damage could be avoided. Although trade policy reforms toward further liberalization help alleviate climate change impacts, additional compensation mechanisms for associated environmental and development concerns have to be considered. PMID:27574700

  19. Selecting downscaled climate projections for water resource impacts and adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Hingray, Benoît

    2015-04-01

    Increasingly large ensembles of global and regional climate projections are being produced and delivered to the climate impact community. However, such an enormous amount of information can hardly been dealt with by some impact models due to computational constraints. Strategies for transparently selecting climate projections are therefore urgently needed for informing small-scale impact and adaptation studies and preventing potential pitfalls in interpreting ensemble results from impact models. This work proposes results from a selection approach implemented for an integrated water resource impact and adaptation study in the Durance river basin (Southern French Alps). A large ensemble of 3000 daily transient gridded climate projections was made available for this study. It was built from different runs of 4 ENSEMBLES Stream2 GCMs, statistically downscaled by 3 probabilistic methods based on the K-nearest neighbours resampling approach (Lafaysse et al., 2014). The selection approach considered here exemplifies one of the multiple possible approaches described in a framework for identifying tailored subsets of climate projections for impact and adaptation studies proposed by Vidal & Hingray (2014). It was chosen based on the specificities of both the study objectives and the characteristics of the projection dataset. This selection approach aims at propagating as far as possible the relative contributions of the four different sources of uncertainties considered, namely GCM structure, large-scale natural variability, structure of the downscaling method, and catchment-scale natural variability. Moreover, it took the form of a hierarchical structure to deal with the specific constraints of several types of impact models (hydrological models, irrigation demand models and reservoir management models). The implemented 3-layer selection approach is therefore mainly based on conditioned Latin Hypercube sampling (Christierson et al., 2012). The choice of conditioning

  20. Flood-induced agricultural loss across China and impacts from climate indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Liu, Lin; Kong, Dongdong

    2016-04-01

    Province-wide data on flood-destroyed and flood-affected crop areas across China covering a period of 1960-2013 were analyzed in this study for investigating their relations with climate indices, such as ENSO, NAO, IOD, PDO and AMO. Results indicated that: (1) agricultural flooding in northeast and south China tended to enhance under the influence of warm PDO and warm IOD events of the previous years. However, agricultural flooding in southwest China tended to decrease as a result of warm ENSO events of the previous years. Agricultural floods in coastal regions of southeast China were influenced by more than one climate index; (2) Agricultural floods of different time scales were subject to different degrees of correlations with climate indices. Remarkably, climate indices that were significantly correlated with agricultural floods were usually temporally enhancing. Relations between ENSO and agricultural floods across China were statistically strong with good persistency. Thus, ENSO can be taken as a suitable predictor for flood-affected and flood-destroyed crop areas across China. However, AMO cannot be taken as the predictor for flood-affected and flood-destroyed crop areas in China; (3) The combined influence of climate indices on flood-affected and flood-destroyed crop areas across China did not have a firm spatiotemporal pattern. However, specific groups of climate indices can have definitive impacts on flood-affected and flood-destroyed crop areas over specific regions. Findings of this study can help predict flood-affected and flood-destroyed crop areas across provinces of China, and hence plan and manage agricultural activities in China.

  1. Working Together to Deliver Usable Climate Information to Agricultural Producers and Advisors in the U.S. Corn Belt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prokopy, L. S.; Widhalm, M.

    2012-12-01

    Weather and climate patterns are a driving force behind the success or failure of cropping systems. With U.S. corn and soybean production accounting for nearly one-third of global supplies and contributing $100 billion annually to the national economy, the ability to successfully produce crops under more variable climate conditions is critical. Useful to Usable (U2U): Transforming Climate Variability and Change Information for Cereal Crop Producers is a USDA-funded research and extension project focused on delivering to producers and farm advisors the resources and training they need to more effectively manage variable climate conditions. The U2U team is a diverse and uniquely qualified group of climatologists, crop modelers, agronomists, economists, and social scientists from 10 Midwestern universities and two NOAA Regional Climate Centers. Together, we strive to help producers make better long-term plans on what, when and where to plant and also how to manage crops for maximum yields and minimum environmental damage. Under development are tools that will allow the agricultural community to examine the financial, production, and environmental outcomes of different management options and climate scenarios so farmers can choose strategies that fit their capabilities and acceptable levels of risk. Researchers are currently using existing data and agro-climate models to investigate the impact of climate conditions on key topics such as crop yields, fieldwork opportunities, nitrogen management, and the cost-effectiveness of irrigation and tiling. To ensure relevance and usability of U2U products, our social science team is using a number of techniques including surveys and focus groups to integrate stakeholder interests, needs, and concerns into all aspects of U2U research. It is through this coupling of physical and social science disciplines that we strive to transform existing climate information into actionable knowledge. This presentation will elaborate on U2U

  2. Climate change, diversified agriculture and adaptive capacity in Hawaii

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Export-oriented sugar cane and pineapple plantation agriculture once dominated Hawaii's economy but over the latter half of the 20th Century, there was a rapid decline in the production of these crops as Hawaii's competitive advantage over foreign producers dwindled. The decline of the plantations c...

  3. Agricultural Intensification as a Mechanism of Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kyle, P.; Calvin, K. V.; le Page, Y.; Patel, P.; West, T. O.; Wise, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    The research, policy, and NGO communities have devoted significant attention to the potential for agricultural intensification, or closure of "yield gaps," to alleviate future global hunger, poverty, climate change impacts, and other threats. However, because the research to this point has focused on biophysically attainable yields—assuming optimal choices under ideal conditions—the presently available work has not yet addressed the likely responses of the agricultural sector to real-world conditions in the future. This study investigates endogenous agricultural intensification in response to global climate change impacts—that is, intensification independent of policies or other exogenous interventions to promote yield gap closure. The framework for the analysis is a set of scenarios to 2100 in the GCAM global integrated assessment model, enhanced to include endogenous irrigation, fertilizer application, and yields, in each of 283 land use regions, with maximum yields based on the 95th percentile of attainable yields in a recent global assessment. We assess three levels of agricultural climate impacts, using recent global gridded crop model datasets: none, low (LPJmL), and high (Pegasus). Applying formulations for decomposition of climate change impacts response developed in prior AgMIP work, we find that at the global level, availability of high-yielding technologies mitigates price shocks and shifts the agricultural sector's climate response modestly towards intensification, away from cropland expansion and reduced production. At the regional level, the behavior is more complex; nevertheless, availability of high-yielding production technologies enhances the inter-regional shifts in agricultural production that are induced by climate change, complemented by commensurate changes in trade patterns. The results highlight the importance of policies to facilitate yield gap closure and inter-regional trade as mechanisms for adapting to climate change

  4. Agriculture Insurance: Adaptation to Vulnerability of Climate Change in Bali, Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ambarawati, I. G. A. A.; Hongo, C.; Mirah Adi, A. A. A.; Tamura, E.

    2014-12-01

    Bali province of Indonesia is worldwide known for its tourist destination and it contributes more than 60 per cent to the regional domestic product. Meanwhile, agricultural sector including rice production still plays an important role in the Bali economy because of its 30 per cent contribution. Rice production in Bali is not just susceptible to loss caused by flood, drought and pest and disease attack but also from the climate change. The impact of climate change on food production in Indonesia is expected to decline in 2050, ranging from 38 per cent to more than ten-folds of the current production (Syaukat, 2011). Accordingly, adaptation to climate changes is required to minimize the risk along with the plans and strategies for food security and sustainable development. The government of Indonesia (GoI) has launched several pilot projects including agriculture insurance program to minimize the risk in production failure particularly rice farming, unfortunately Bali was excluded from the projects. Implementation of agriculture insurance in Indonesia has the legal basis now after the announcement of the Farmer Protection and Empowerment Act (Law No. 19/2013). Agriculture insurance is seen better in mitigating farmer's risk than that of the other program in rice production. The GoI plans to implement the insurance scheme in the beginning of 2015. This scheme is something "new" to farmers in Bali and Indonesia. Considering the importance of crop insurance to agriculture, this study attempts to explore the potential of such insurance to reveal a clear picture of opportunities and challenges in agriculture insurance implementation in Bali. The study empirically presents awareness and perception of farmers towards the insurance and adaptation to vulnerability of climate change. The study concludes with various suggestions for increasing the awareness of farmers for ensuring better penetration of agriculture insurance in Bali. Key words: agriculture insurance, farmer

  5. Impact of climate change on groundwater resources in Southern Austria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reszler, C.; Harum, T.; Poltnig, W.; Saccon, P.; Reichl, P.; Ruch, C.; Kopeinig, C.; Freundl, G.; Schlamberger, J.; Zessar, H.; Suette, G.

    2012-04-01

    Groundwater is the most important source for drinking water in Austria. In some parts of Southern Austria water resources already are very vulnerable to unfavourable climate conditions. This paper summarizes case studies of estimating the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge and groundwater flow in Southern Austria in the frame of the ETC-Alpine Space project ALP-WATER-SCARCE. In several pilot regions a distributed hydrological model was set up to simulate groundwater recharge and groundwater flow for a period of 10 to 30 years. The pilot sites range from mountainous catchments with steep hillslopes to Alpine valleys and flatlands with pore aquifers. In the model period comprehensive land data and meteorological data were used, and the models were calibrated to available stream gauge data. Additional low flow monitoring in the frame of the project also allowed for a more detailed regional analysis in some catchments. The simulations were firstly used to extend runoff and groundwater recharge depths on an annual basis up to 200 years into the past by regression analysis with long time meteorological parameters (HISTALP). The historical view shows that groundwater flow and recharge in most of the pilot regions decreased since the beginning of the 20th century, which is mainly the effect of climate change. Changes of land use are of minor relevance in most of the regions. Second, by the calibrated model scenarios were simulated to quantify the impact of a possible future change in the climatic conditions on water resources. The scenarios were generated by altering the model input by a "Delta-Change", under consideration of the historical development. These scenarios can be interpreted as "what if"-scenarios to quantify the sensitivity of the hydrological systems on these climatic variables. The results are compared with actual and projected water uses as a basis for regional water resources management.

  6. Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century

    PubMed Central

    Gornall, Jemma; Betts, Richard; Burke, Eleanor; Clark, Robin; Camp, Joanne; Willett, Kate; Wiltshire, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews recent literature concerning a wide range of processes through which climate change could potentially impact global-scale agricultural productivity, and presents projections of changes in relevant meteorological, hydrological and plant physiological quantities from a climate model ensemble to illustrate key areas of uncertainty. Few global-scale assessments have been carried out, and these are limited in their ability to capture the uncertainty in climate projections, and omit potentially important aspects such as extreme events and changes in pests and diseases. There is a lack of clarity on how climate change impacts on drought are best quantified from an agricultural perspective, with different metrics giving very different impressions of future risk. The dependence of some regional agriculture on remote rainfall, snowmelt and glaciers adds to the complexity. Indirect impacts via sea-level rise, storms and diseases have not been quantified. Perhaps most seriously, there is high uncertainty in the extent to which the direct effects of CO2 rise on plant physiology will interact with climate change in affecting productivity. At present, the aggregate impacts of climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity cannot be reliably quantified. PMID:20713397

  7. 77 FR 60717 - Establishment of the Advisory Committee on Climate Change and Natural Resource Science

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-10-04

    ... Geological Survey Establishment of the Advisory Committee on Climate Change and Natural Resource Science... Committee on Climate Change and Natural Resource Science (Committee). The Committee will provide advice on... Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center and the DOI Climate Science Centers. In doing so, the...

  8. Assessing the effects of climate change on groundwater resources in a runoff-dominated watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woolfenden, L. R.; Hevesi, J. A.; Niswonger, R. G.; Nishikawa, T.

    2011-12-01

    Groundwater will play an important role for sustainable water supplies in the future. Integrated hydrologic models can be used to assess the current and future availability of the surface-water and groundwater resources. The integrated hydrologic model GSFLOW was used to simulate the transient hydrologic processes in the Santa Rosa Plain (SRP) watershed, California, USA. The 680-square-kilometer Santa Rosa Plain watershed is characterized by forested drainages in the mountains bordering a developed alluvial plain that includes a network of natural and engineered stream channels. Runoff is derived solely from rainfall and streamflow in the watershed exhibits a strong seasonal variation with the largest flows occur during November through February. Spatial variability in climate is influenced by topography, proximity to the Pacific Ocean, and storm trajectory. Groundwater flow is influenced by topography, structure, complex geology, spatial and temporal variation in recharge, and pumping for urban, agricultural, and rural demands. The model was calibrated using available daily climate and streamflow records and well hydrographs for a continuous daily simulation period from water year 1976 through 2009. Projected 100-year (2000-2100) climate conditions developed from selected available General Circulation Model results consisting of spatially distributed daily precipitation and air temperature estimates will be incorporated into the calibrated GSFLOW model. The transient simulation results from the coupled model will be used to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on water resources within the watershed. Future agricultural demand will be estimated by running GSFLOW in decoupled PRMS-mode to simulate irrigation deficiency for each of the selected future climate scenarios. Future municipal and rural water demand will be estimated from population projections in the watershed. The effects of climate change on the groundwater system will be evaluated by

  9. Assessing the effects of climate change on groundwater resources in a runoff-dominated watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woolfenden, L. R.; Hevesi, J. A.; Niswonger, R. G.; Nishikawa, T.

    2012-12-01

    Groundwater will play an important role for sustainable water supplies in the future. Integrated hydrologic models can be used to assess the current and future availability of the surface-water and groundwater resources. The integrated hydrologic model GSFLOW was used to simulate the transient hydrologic processes in the Santa Rosa Plain (SRP) watershed, California, USA. The 680-square-kilometer Santa Rosa Plain watershed is characterized by forested drainages in the mountains bordering a developed alluvial plain that includes a network of natural and engineered stream channels. Runoff is derived solely from rainfall and streamflow in the watershed exhibits a strong seasonal variation with the largest flows occur during November through February. Spatial variability in climate is influenced by topography, proximity to the Pacific Ocean, and storm trajectory. Groundwater flow is influenced by topography, structure, complex geology, spatial and temporal variation in recharge, and pumping for urban, agricultural, and rural demands. The model was calibrated using available daily climate and streamflow records and well hydrographs for a continuous daily simulation period from water year 1976 through 2009. Projected 100-year (2000-2100) climate conditions developed from selected available General Circulation Model results consisting of spatially distributed daily precipitation and air temperature estimates will be incorporated into the calibrated GSFLOW model. The transient simulation results from the coupled model will be used to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on water resources within the watershed. Future agricultural demand will be estimated by running GSFLOW in decoupled PRMS-mode to simulate irrigation deficiency for each of the selected future climate scenarios. Future municipal and rural water demand will be estimated from population projections in the watershed. The effects of climate change on the groundwater system will be evaluated by

  10. Agricultural Producer Perceptions of Climate Change and Climate Education Needs for the Central Great Plains

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hibbs, Amber Campbell; Kahl, Daniel; PytlikZillig, Lisa; Champion, Ben; Abdel-Monem, Tarik; Steffensmeier, Timothy; Rice, Charles W.; Hubbard, Kenneth

    2014-01-01

    The Central Great Plains Climate Education Partnership conducted focus groups throughout Kansas to gain a better understanding of farmer perceptions and attitudes towards climate change education. Results indicate concern about climatic changes, even if producers are unsure that "human caused climate change" is occurring. Participants…

  11. Climate impacts on agriculture: Implications for forage and rangeland production

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Projections of temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States during the next 50 years anticipate a 1.5 to 2°C warming trend and a slight increase in precipitation. In general, the effects of climate change on crop species have been better studied than in pastureland and rangeland s...

  12. Agricultural management options for climate variability and change: conservation tillage

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Adapting to climate variability and change can be achieved through a broad range of management alternatives and technological advances. This publication is focused on the use of conservation tillage in crop production systems. The publication outlines ways that conservation tillage can reduce risk r...

  13. Organizational Climate of the American Association for Agricultural Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKim, Billy R.; Rutherford, Tracy A.; Torres, Robert M.; Murphy, Tim H.

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring and evaluating programs and outcomes is common practice in educational arenas; less frequent in professional societies and organizations. A clear understanding of the climate of an organization is important, potentially providing leadership with an understanding of how to improve the functionality of an organization. The purpose of this…

  14. Using historical and projected future climate model simulations as drivers of agricultural and biological models (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stefanova, L. B.

    2013-12-01

    Climate model evaluation is frequently performed as a first step in analyzing climate change simulations. Atmospheric scientists are accustomed to evaluating climate models through the assessment of model climatology and biases, the models' representation of large-scale modes of variability (such as ENSO, PDO, AMO, etc) and the relationship between these modes and local variability (e.g. the connection between ENSO and the wintertime precipitation in the Southeast US). While these provide valuable information about the fidelity of historical and projected climate model simulations from an atmospheric scientist's point of view, the application of climate model data to fields such as agriculture, ecology and biology may require additional analyses focused on the particular application's requirements and sensitivities. Typically, historical climate simulations are used to determine a mapping between the model and observed climate, either through a simple (additive for temperature or multiplicative for precipitation) or a more sophisticated (such as quantile matching) bias correction on a monthly or seasonal time scale. Plants, animals and humans however are not directly affected by monthly or seasonal means. To assess the impact of projected climate change on living organisms and related industries (e.g. agriculture, forestry, conservation, utilities, etc.), derivative measures such as the heating degree-days (HDD), cooling degree-days (CDD), growing degree-days (GDD), accumulated chill hours (ACH), wet season onset (WSO) and duration (WSD), among others, are frequently useful. We will present a comparison of the projected changes in such derivative measures calculated by applying: (a) the traditional temperature/precipitation bias correction described above versus (b) a bias correction based on the mapping between the historical model and observed derivative measures themselves. In addition, we will present and discuss examples of various application-based climate

  15. Practicing Conservation Agriculture to mitigate and adapt to Climate Change in Jordan.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khresat, Saeb

    2016-04-01

    Climate change scenarios indicate that Jordan and the Middle East could suffer from reduced agricultural productivity and water availability among other negative impacts. Based on the projection models for the area, average temperature in Jordan is projected to increase between 1.2 and 1.6 °C by 2050. Projections for precipitation trends are projected to decrease by 16% by the year 2050. Evaporation is likely to increase due to higher temperatures. This is likely to increase the incidence of drought potential since precipitation is projected to decrease. The dominant form of agriculture system in Jordan is based on intensive tillage. This form of tillage has resulted in large losses of organic soil carbon, weaker soil structure, and cause compaction. It has negative effects on soil aeration, root development and water infiltration among other factors. There is a need to transform farming practices to conservation agriculture to sequester carbon so that climate change mitigation becomes an inherent property of future farming systems. Conservation Agriculture, a system avoiding or minimizing soil disturbance, combined with soil cover and crop diversification, is considered to be a sustainable production system that can also sequester carbon unlike tillage agriculture. Conservation agriculture promotes minimal disturbance of the soil by tillage (zero tillage), balanced application of chemical inputs and careful management of residues and wastes. This study was conducted to develop a clear understanding of the impacts and benefits of the two most common types of agriculture, traditional tillage agriculture and conservation agriculture with respect to their effects on land productivity and on soil carbon pools. The study results indicated that conservation agriculture contributed to the reduction of the farming systems' greenhouse gas emissions and enhance its role as carbon sinks. Also, it was found that by shifting to conservation agriculture labor cost needed for

  16. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change.

    PubMed

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-03-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. PMID:24344275

  17. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

    PubMed Central

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D.; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. PMID:24344275

  18. Evaluating the Sensitivity of Agricultural Model Performance to Different Climate Inputs: Supplemental Material

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Glotter, Michael J.; Ruane, Alex C.; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Elliott, Joshua W.

    2015-01-01

    Projections of future food production necessarily rely on models, which must themselves be validated through historical assessments comparing modeled and observed yields. Reliable historical validation requires both accurate agricultural models and accurate climate inputs. Problems with either may compromise the validation exercise. Previous studies have compared the effects of different climate inputs on agricultural projections but either incompletely or without a ground truth of observed yields that would allow distinguishing errors due to climate inputs from those intrinsic to the crop model. This study is a systematic evaluation of the reliability of a widely used crop model for simulating U.S. maize yields when driven by multiple observational data products. The parallelized Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (pDSSAT) is driven with climate inputs from multiple sources reanalysis, reanalysis that is bias corrected with observed climate, and a control dataset and compared with observed historical yields. The simulations show that model output is more accurate when driven by any observation-based precipitation product than when driven by non-bias-corrected reanalysis. The simulations also suggest, in contrast to previous studies, that biased precipitation distribution is significant for yields only in arid regions. Some issues persist for all choices of climate inputs: crop yields appear to be oversensitive to precipitation fluctuations but under sensitive to floods and heat waves. These results suggest that the most important issue for agricultural projections may be not climate inputs but structural limitations in the crop models themselves.

  19. Changes in climate variability with reference to land quality and agriculture in Scotland.

    PubMed

    Brown, Iain; Castellazzi, Marie

    2015-06-01

    Classification and mapping of land capability represents an established format for summarising spatial information on land quality and land-use potential. By convention, this information incorporates bioclimatic constraints through the use of a long-term average. However, climate change means that land capability classification should also have a dynamic temporal component. Using an analysis based upon Land Capability for Agriculture in Scotland, it is shown that this dynamism not only involves the long-term average but also shorter term spatiotemporal patterns, particularly through changes in interannual variability. Interannual and interdecadal variations occur both in the likelihood of land being in prime condition (top three capability class divisions) and in class volatility from year to year. These changing patterns are most apparent in relation to the west-east climatic gradient which is mainly a function of precipitation regime and soil moisture. Analysis is also extended into the future using climate results for the 2050s from a weather generator which show a complex interaction between climate interannual variability and different soil types for land quality. In some locations, variability of land capability is more likely to decrease because the variable climatic constraints are relaxed and the dominant constraint becomes intrinsic soil properties. Elsewhere, climatic constraints will continue to be influential. Changing climate variability has important implications for land-use planning and agricultural management because it modifies local risk profiles in combination with the current trend towards agricultural intensification and specialisation. PMID:25099211

  20. Adaptation to Interannual and Interdecadal Climate Variability in Agricultural Production Systems of the Argentine Pampas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Podestá, G. P.; Bert, F.; Weber, E.; Laciana, C.; Rajagopalan, B.; Letson, D.

    2007-05-01

    Agricultural ecosystems play a central role in world food production and food security, and involve one of the most climate-sensitive sectors of society-agriculture. We focus on crop production in the Argentine Pampas, one of the world's major agricultural regions. Climate of the Pampas shows marked variability at both interannual and decadal time scales. We explored the scope for adaptive management in response to climate information on interannual scales. We show that different assumptions about what decision makers are trying to achieve (i.e., their objective functions) may change what actions are considered as "optimal" for a given climate context. Optimal actions also were used to estimate the economic value of forecasts of an ENSO phase. Decision constraints (e.g., crop rotations) have critical influence on value of the forecasting system. Gaps in knowledge or misconceptions about climate variability were identified in open-ended "mental model" interviews. Results were used to design educational interventions. A marked increase in precipitation since the 1970s, together with new production technologies, led to major changes in land use patterns in the Pampas. Continuous cropping has widely replaced agriculture-pasture rotations. Nevertheless, production systems that evolved partly in response to increased rainfall may not be viable if climate reverts to a drier epoch. We use historical data to define a range of plausible climate trajectories 20-30 years hence. Regional scenarios are downscaled using semi-parametric weather generators to produce multiple realizations of daily weather consistent with decadal scenarios. Finally, we use the synthetic climate, crop growth models, and realistic models of decision-making under risk to compute risk metrics (e.g., probability of yields or profits being below a threshold). Climatically optimal and marginal locations show differential responses: probabilities of negative economic results are much higher in currently

  1. Functional foods and urban agriculture: two responses to climate change-related food insecurity.

    PubMed

    Dixon, Jane M; Donati, Kelly J; Pike, Lucy L; Hattersley, Libby

    2009-01-01

    Affluent diets have negative effects on the health of the population and the environment. Moreover, the ability of industrialised agricultural ecosystems to continue to supply these diets is threatened by the anticipated consequences of climate change. By challenging the ongoing supply the diets of affluent countries, climate change provides a population and environmental health opportunity. This paper contrasts two strategies for dealing with climate change-related food insecurity. Functional foods are being positioned as one response because they are considered a hyper-efficient mechanism for supplying essential micronutrients. An alternative response is civic and urban agriculture. Rather than emphasising increased economic or nutritional efficiencies, civic agriculture presents a holistic approach to food security that is more directly connected to the economic, environmental and social factors that affect diet and health. PMID:19261211

  2. Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Technology Management in the Transylvanian Plain, Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rusu, Teodor; Ioana Moraru, Paula; Bogdan, Ileana; Ioan Pop, Adrian; Cacovean, Horea

    2013-04-01

    The impact of climate changes varies considerably in Europe, with different degrees of vulnerability. Romania is situated in an area with the lowest capacity to adapt to existing climate change and those that will occur, and the Transylvanian Plain (TP) is one of the most affected areas. In these conditions, the climate monitoring and implementation of measures to adapt to these changes are essential for sustainable development of agricultural technologies. The TP name comes from the Latin "silva" which means forest, namely an area covered with forests approximately 55-60% in the early nineteenth century, but today reached an average of 6.8% in the TP area. In time, the rugged terrain, deforestation, erosive slopes, and irrational agro technical practices for crop production altogether brought about the degradation of large areas of agricultural land, reducing its productivity. The degree of soil degradation in TP and climate change in recent years, have radically modified climatic conditions for cultural crops. Monitoring of temperature and water supply in TP aims to evaluate these two resources for agricultural production. The TP is a geographical region located in north-central Romania and it is bordered by large rivers to the north and south: the Somes and the Mures rivers. The altitude of the TP ranges from 231 to 662 m. TP, with an area of approx. 395,616 ha, includes areas of three counties (Cluj - CJ, Mures -MS, Bistrita-Nasaud - BN), has a predominantly agricultural character, and is characterized by hilly climate with oceanic influences, 9-100C average annual temperatures and 500-700 mm/year average annual precipitations. Monitoring the thermal and water supplies from TP was performed with twenty HOBO micro stations which determine the temperature (to a height of 1 m) and rainfalls same as temperature (at 10, 30, 50 cm depth in soil) and soil moisture (at 10 cm depth). Average precipitation recorded during 2009-2011, is 498.97 mm, which is beneath the

  3. Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Technology Management in the Transylvanian Plain, Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rusu, Teodor; Ioana Moraru, Paula; Bogdan, Ileana; Ioan Pop, Adrian; Cacovean, Horea

    2013-04-01

    The impact of climate changes varies considerably in Europe, with different degrees of vulnerability. Romania is situated in an area with the lowest capacity to adapt to existing climate change and those that will occur, and the Transylvanian Plain (TP) is one of the most affected areas. In these conditions, the climate monitoring and implementation of measures to adapt to these changes are essential for sustainable development of agricultural technologies. The TP name comes from the Latin "silva" which means forest, namely an area covered with forests approximately 55-60% in the early nineteenth century, but today reached an average of 6.8% in the TP area. In time, the rugged terrain, deforestation, erosive slopes, and irrational agro technical practices for crop production altogether brought about the degradation of large areas of agricultural land, reducing its productivity. The degree of soil degradation in TP and climate change in recent years, have radically modified climatic conditions for cultural crops. Monitoring of temperature and water supply in TP aims to evaluate these two resources for agricultural production. The TP is a geographical region located in north-central Romania and it is bordered by large rivers to the north and south: the Somes and the Mures rivers. The altitude of the TP ranges from 231 to 662 m. TP, with an area of approx. 395,616 ha, includes areas of three counties (Cluj - CJ, Mures -MS, Bistrita-Nasaud - BN), has a predominantly agricultural character, and is characterized by hilly climate with oceanic influences, 9-100C average annual temperatures and 500-700 mm/year average annual precipitations. Monitoring the thermal and water supplies from TP was performed with twenty HOBO micro stations which determine the temperature (to a height of 1 m) and rainfalls same as temperature (at 10, 30, 50 cm depth in soil) and soil moisture (at 10 cm depth). Average precipitation recorded during 2009-2011, is 498.97 mm, which is beneath the

  4. Revising and Updating the Natural Resources and Aquaculture Components of the Connecticut Vocational Agriculture Curriculum.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berggren, Frederick W.

    Materials, including curriculum units, are provided for the natural resources and aquaculture components of the vocational agriculture curriculum. Aquaculture is a new component, added because of increased recognition of the opportunities offered by Connecticut's rich shoreline resources. A brochure and flyer on the aquaculture program follow a…

  5. Agricultural production and groundwater depletion under climate variability in India - Results from a regional scale crop modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siegfried, T. U.; Sobolowski, S.; Fishman, R.; Vasquez, V.; Raj, P.; Narula, K. K.; Modi, V.; Lall, U.

    2009-12-01

    In India, recent declines in national food security may point to systemic deficiencies of agricultural production. Over the past decade and in the face of declining public investments in irrigation projects, the growth of production has increasingly become reliant on the allocation of large volumes of groundwater in an unsustainable manner. As a result, shallow as well as deep fossil groundwater resources are increasingly depleted and the buffer that mitigates negative impacts on production in case of Monsoonal dry-spells / drought conditions is lost. In the face of future climate and food supply uncertainty, it is vital that the connections between climate variability, unsustainable irrigation practices and their impacts on regional scale agricultural production be quantified and better understood. In our analysis, we focus on rice production in the Telengana region in Andhra Pradesh, which is characterized by a semi-arid tropical climate that is driven by the bimodal seasonality of the south-western monsoon. Traditionally, agricultural production of rice was constrained by precipitation variations during the wet season (Kharif). However, the advent of inexpensive pump technology in the 1970's, coupled with governmentally subsidized electricity has allowed year-round rice production. Thus, the Monsoon rains must not only drive wet season production but must also sufficiently recharge groundwater in order to support dry season production. Observed Production time series are characterized by non-stationarity and heteroscedasticity. Using a subset of eight districts, a non-linear Gaussian Process regression model is developed and yearly crop production is modeled at the district level over 48 years. We show that interannual climate variations, in the form of the monsoon rains, play a significant role in determining the area of land set aside for dry season planting and thus affect total yearly production. The results suggest that a non-linear Bayesian regression

  6. Using changes in agricultural utility to quantify future climate-induced risk to conservation.

    PubMed

    Estes, Lyndon D; Paroz, Lydie-Line; Bradley, Bethany A; Green, Jonathan M H; Hole, David G; Holness, Stephen; Ziv, Guy; Oppenheimer, Michael G; Wilcove, David S

    2014-04-01

    Much of the biodiversity-related climate change impacts research has focused on the direct effects to species and ecosystems. Far less attention has been paid to the potential ecological consequences of human efforts to address the effects of climate change, which may equal or exceed the direct effects of climate change on biodiversity. One of the most significant human responses is likely to be mediated through changes in the agricultural utility of land. As farmers adapt their practices to changing climates, they may increase pressure on some areas that are important to conserve (conservation lands) whereas lessening it on others. We quantified how the agricultural utility of South African conservation lands may be altered by climate change. We assumed that the probability of an area being farmed is linked to the economic benefits of doing so, using land productivity values to represent production benefit and topographic ruggedness as a proxy for costs associated with mechanical workability. We computed current and future values of maize and wheat production in key conservation lands using the DSSAT4.5 model and 36 crop-climate response scenarios. Most conservation lands had, and were predicted to continue to have, low agricultural utility because of their location in rugged terrain. However, several areas were predicted to maintain or gain high agricultural utility and may therefore be at risk of near-term or future conversion to cropland. Conversely, some areas were predicted to decrease in agricultural utility and may therefore prove easier to protect from conversion. Our study provides an approximate but readily transferable method for incorporating potential human responses to climate change into conservation planning. PMID:24372589

  7. Climate impacts on agriculture: Implications for forage and rangeland production

    SciTech Connect

    Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Thomson, Allison M.; Morgan, Jack; Fay, Philip; Polley, Wayne; Hatfield, Jerry L.

    2011-04-19

    Projections of temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States during the next 50 years anticipate a 1.5 to 2°C warming and a slight increase in precipitation as a result of global climate change. There have been relatively few studies of climate change impacts on pasture and rangeland (grazingland) species compared to those on crop species, despite the economic and ecological importance of the former. Here we review the literature on pastureland and rangeland species to rising CO2 and climate change (temperature, and precipitation) and discuss plant and management factors likely to influence pastureland and rangeland responses to change (e.g., community composition, plant competition, perennial growth habit, seasonal productivity, and management methods). Overall, the response of pasture species to increased [CO2] is consistent with the general response of C3 and C4 type vegetation, although significant exceptions exist. Both pastureland and rangeland species should exhibit an acceleration of metabolism and development due to earlier onset of spring green-up and longer growing seasons. However, in the studies reviewed here, C3 pasture species increased their photosynthetic rates by up to 40% while C4 species exhibited no increase in photosynthesis. In general, it is expected that increases in [CO2] and precipitation would enhance rangeland net primary production (NPP) while increased air temperatures would either increase or decrease NPP. Much of this uncertainty in response is due to uncertain future projections of precipitation, both globally and regionally. For example, if annual precipitation changes little or declines, rangeland plant response to warming temperatures and rising [CO2] may be neutral or may decline due to increased water stress. This review reveals the need for comprehensive studies of climate change impacts on the pasture ecosystem including grazing regimes, mutualistic relationships (e.g., plant roots-nematodes; N

  8. Assessing the impacts of climatic change on mountain water resources.

    PubMed

    Beniston, Martin; Stoffel, Markus

    2014-09-15

    As the evidence for human induced climate change becomes clearer, so too does the realization that its effects will have impacts on numerous environmental and socio-economic systems. Mountains are recognized as very sensitive physical environments with populations whose histories and current social positions often strain their capacity to accommodate intense and rapid changes to their resource base. It is thus essential to assess the impacts of a changing climate, focusing on the quantity of water originating in mountain regions, particularly where snow and ice melt represent a large streamflow component as well as a local resource in terms of freshwater supply, hydropower generation, or irrigation. Increasing evidence of glacier retreat, permafrost degradation and reduced mountain snowpack has been observed in many regions, thereby suggesting that climate change may seriously affect streamflow regimes. These changes could in turn threaten the availability of water resources for many environmental and economic systems, and exacerbate a range of natural hazards that would compound these impacts. As a consequence, socio-economic structures of downstream living populations would be also impacted, calling for better preparedness and strategies to avoid conflicts of interest between water-dependent economic actors. This paper is thus an introduction to the Special Issue of this journal dedicated to the European Union Seventh Framework Program (EU-FP7) project ACQWA (Assessing Climate Impacts on the Quantity and Quality of WAter), a major European network of scientists that was coordinated by the University of Geneva from 2008 to 2014. The goal of ACQWA has been to address a number of these issues and propose a range of solutions for adaptation to change and to help improve water governance in regions where quantity, seasonality, and perhaps quality of water may substantially change in coming decades. PMID:24360916

  9. The National Climate Assessment as a Resource for Science Communication

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Somerville, R. C. J.

    2014-12-01

    The 2014 Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) is scientifically authoritative and features major advances, relative to other assessments produced by several organizations. NCA3 is a valuable resource for communicating climate science to a wide variety of audiences. Other assessments were often overly detailed and laden with scientific jargon that made them appear too complex and technical to many in their intended audiences, especially policymakers, the media, and the broad public. Some other assessments emphasized extensive scientific caveats, quantitative uncertainty estimates and broad consensus support. All these attributes, while valuable in research, carry the risk of impeding science communication to non-specialists. Without compromising scientific accuracy and integrity, NCA3 is written in exceptionally clear and vivid English. It includes outstanding graphics and employs powerful techniques aimed at conveying key results unambiguously to a wide range of audiences. I have used NCA3 as a resource in speaking about climate change in three very different settings: classroom teaching for undergraduate university students, presenting in academia to historians and other non-scientists, and briefing corporate executives working on renewable energy. NCA3 proved the value of developing a climate assessment with communication goals and strategies given a high priority throughout the process, not added on as an afterthought. I draw several lessons. First, producing an outstanding scientific assessment is too complex and demanding a task to be carried out by scientists alone. Many types of specialized expertise are also needed. Second, speaking about science to a variety of audiences requires an assortment of communication skills and tools, all tailored to specific groups of listeners. Third, NCA3 is scientifically impeccable and is also an outstanding example of effective communication as well as a valuable resource for communicators.

  10. Spatial Modeling of Indian Agriculture, Economic Activity and Population under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCord, G. C.

    2010-12-01

    We present a spatial model of economic activity and human population built on physical geography that takes particular account of its effects through agricultural productivity and transport costs for trade. A major component of this work is an agricultural model, driven in part by high-resolution climate data and model output. We put forward India as the initial region for this modeling work; India is a relatively data-rich country, it exhibits significant within-country spatial and temporal variation in agricultural productivity, urbanization rates, and population growth rates, and the climate dynamics of the monsoon are well-studied and expected to change on decadal time scales. Agricultural productivity is modeled as a function of soil, climate, and technology variables. Farmers locate optimally given varying geography and transport costs; in turn, food availability defines urbanization rates and economic activity in non-agricultural sectors. This “social system” integrated assessment model is a step towards a valuable policy tool, but requires a significant mobilization of data and a grid-cell-level system of equations to describe the underlying dynamics of the model. We test against past trends of social-natural system progression in demography, human location, income, food production, etc., and argue that the model could be used to assess future trends under varying climate change scenarios, and eventually serve to model feedbacks through effects on migration, population growth rates, or economic activity.

  11. Estimating farmers' willingness to pay for climate change adaptation: the case of the Malaysian agricultural sector.

    PubMed

    Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Junsheng, Ha; Akhtar, Rulia; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Kari, Fatimah Binti

    2015-02-01

    This paper estimates Malaysian farmers' willingness to pay (WTP) for a planned adaptation programme for addressing climate issues in the Malaysian agricultural sector. We used the contingent valuation method (CVM) for a monetary valuation of farmers' preferences for a planned adaptation programme by ascertaining the value attached to address climatic issues in the Malaysian agricultural sector. Structured questionnaires were distributed among the sampled farmers. The study found that 74 % of respondents were willing to pay for a planned adaptation programme and that several socioeconomic and motivation factors have greater influence on their WTP. This paper clearly specifies the steps needed for all institutional bodies to better address issues in climate change. The outcomes of this paper will support policy makers to better design an efficient adaptation framework for adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change. PMID:25632900

  12. Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: household strategies and determinants.

    PubMed

    Bryan, Elizabeth; Ringler, Claudia; Okoba, Barrack; Roncoli, Carla; Silvestri, Silvia; Herrero, Mario

    2013-01-15

    Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change, given dependence on agricultural production and limited adaptive capacity. Based on farm household and Participatory Rural Appraisal data collected from districts in various agroecological zones in Kenya, this paper examines farmers' perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and factors influencing farmers' decisions to adapt. The results show that households face considerable challenges in adapting to climate change. While many households have made small adjustments to their farming practices in response to climate change (in particular, changing planting decisions), few households are able to make more costly investments, for example in agroforestry or irrigation, although there is a desire to invest in such measures. This emphasizes the need for greater investments in rural and agricultural development to support the ability of households to make strategic, long-term decisions that affect their future well-being. PMID:23201602

  13. Modeling the impacts of climate change and agricultural management practices on surface erosion in a dryland agricultural basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ottenbreit, E.; Adam, J. C.; Barber, M. E.

    2010-12-01

    The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of climate change and agricultural management practices on suspended sediment concentrations in the Potlach River basin in northwestern Idaho. Suspended sediment is a pollutant in many water systems and contributes to the impairment of streams. Conventional tillage practices and rain-on-snow events in the Palouse region of northern Idaho and eastern Washington can produce some of the highest sediment losses per acre in the United States. Climate change may lead to further problems as more frequent and intense winter storm events are predicted to occur. Many hydrological models have been developed which examine suspended sediment in river systems. The Potlatch River basin near Julietta, ID was examined using the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), which has a sediment module that includes surface erosion and channel sediment transport. DHSVM was calibrated and evaluated over the historical period of streamflow observations and was used to predict soil erosion rates and suspended sediment concentrations using a range of downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) emissions scenarios for the year 2045. Furthermore, the sensitivity of suspended sediment concentrations to conventional versus convservative tillage practices was explored. The results show that as the projected climate-driven intensity of storms increase, more sediment is predicted in the Potlatch River. Suspended sediment and streamflow are predicted to increase during the late fall through the early spring. This increase occurs during times of heightened runoff when suspended sediment concentration in the river is highest. Three tillage scenarios were incorporated into DHSVM for winter wheat: conventional till, reduced till, and no till. Erosion and suspended sediment were higher during storm events under conventional agricultural tillage scenarios. In the long-term, this research can lead to examination of the effects of climate

  14. Agriculture and Climate Change in Global Scenarios: Why Don't the Models Agree

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, Gerald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Calvin, Katherine V.; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; Mueller, C.; Reilly, J. M.; Robertson, Richard; Sands, Ronald; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs makes direct use of weather inputs. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes of key variables such as prices, production, and trade. These divergent outcomes arise from differences in model inputs and model specification. The goal of this paper is to review climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By providing common productivity drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes are reduced. All models show higher prices in 2050 because of negative productivity shocks from climate change. The magnitude of the price increases, and the adaptation responses, differ significantly across the various models. Substantial differences exist in the structural parameters affecting demand, area, and yield, and should be a topic for future research.

  15. Agricultural and Social Resiliency of Small-Scale Agriculture to Economic and Climatic Shocks: A Comparison of Subsistence versus Market-Based Agricultural Approaches in Rural Guatemala

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malard, J. J.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.; Pineda, P.; Gálvez, J.; Adamowski, J. F.

    2014-12-01

    Agricultural production is heavily dependent not only on climate but also on markets as well as on the social and community systems managing the agroecosystem. In addition, the ultimate goal of agricultural production, human food security, is also affected not only by net agricultural production but also by similar economic and social factors. These complex feedbacks assume a particular importance in the case of smallholder farms in the tropics, where alternative rural development policies have led to different and contrasting agricultural management systems. Current approaches at comparing such systems generally study their environmental, economic or social components in isolation, potentially missing important interconnections. This research uses a participatory systems dynamics modelling (SDM) framework to compare two small-scale agricultural approaches in rural Guatemala which differ in their social, economic and ecosystem management decisions. The first case study community, in Quiché, has adopted a subsistence-based system that aims to use low levels of outside inputs to produce food for their own consumption, while the second, in Sololá, has opted for market-based agriculture that uses high input levels to obtain marketable crops in order to assure income for the purchase of food and other necessities. Each of these systems has its respective vulnerabilities; while the Sololá community suffers from more environmental degradation issues (soils and pests), the Quiché community, given lower monetary incomes, is more vulnerable to events whose responses require a significant monetary expenditure. Through the SDM approach, we incorporate local stakeholder knowledge of the respective systems, including biophysical and socioeconomic variables, into a joint biophysical and socioeconomic model for each community. These models then allow for the comparison of the resilience of both types of socio-agroecosystems in the face of climatic, economic and biological

  16. Investigation on Reservoir Operation of Agricultural Water Resources Management for Drought Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, C. L.

    2015-12-01

    Investigation on Reservoir Operation of Agricultural Water Resources Management for Drought Mitigation Chung-Lien Cheng, Wen-Ping Tsai, Fi-John Chang* Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Da-An District, Taipei 10617, Taiwan, ROC.Corresponding author: Fi-John Chang (changfj@ntu.edu.tw) AbstractIn Taiwan, the population growth and economic development has led to considerable and increasing demands for natural water resources in the last decades. Under such condition, water shortage problems have frequently occurred in northern Taiwan in recent years such that water is usually transferred from irrigation sectors to public sectors during drought periods. Facing the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and the problems of increasing water shortages, it is a primary and critical issue to simultaneously satisfy multiple water uses through adequate reservoir operations for sustainable water resources management. Therefore, we intend to build an intelligent reservoir operation system for the assessment of agricultural water resources management strategy in response to food security during drought periods. This study first uses the grey system to forecast the agricultural water demand during February and April for assessing future agricultural water demands. In the second part, we build an intelligent water resources system by using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II), an optimization tool, for searching the water allocation series based on different water demand scenarios created from the first part to optimize the water supply operation for different water sectors. The results can be a reference guide for adequate agricultural water resources management during drought periods. Keywords: Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II); Grey System; Optimization; Agricultural Water Resources Management.

  17. A vulnerability tool for adapting water and aquatic resources to climate change and extremes on the Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rice, J.; Joyce, L. A.; Armel, B.; Bevenger, G.; Zubic, R.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change introduces a significant challenge for land managers and decision makers managing the natural resources that provide many benefits from forests. These benefits include water for urban and agricultural uses, wildlife habitat, erosion and climate control, aquifer recharge, stream flows regulation, water temperature regulation, and cultural services such as outdoor recreation and aesthetic enjoyment. The Forest Service has responded to this challenge by developing a national strategy for responding to climate change (the National Roadmap for Responding to Climate Change, July 2010). In concert with this national strategy, the Forest Service's Westwide Climate Initiative has conducted 4 case studies on individual Forests in the western U.S to develop climate adaptation tools. Western National Forests are particularly vulnerable to climate change as they have high-mountain topography, diversity in climate and vegetation, large areas of water limited ecosystems, and increasing urbanization. Information about the vulnerability and capacity of resources to adapt to climate change and extremes is lacking. There is an urgent need to provide customized tools and synthesized local scale information about the impacts to resources from future climate change and extremes, as well as develop science based adaptation options and strategies in National Forest management and planning. The case study on the Shoshone National Forest has aligned its objectives with management needs by developing a climate extreme vulnerability tool that guides adaptation options development. The vulnerability tool determines the likely degree to which native Yellowstone cutthroat trout and water availability are susceptible to, or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change extremes. We spatially categorize vulnerability for water and native trout resources using exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators that use minimum and maximum climate and GIS data. Results

  18. Impacts of climate and land use change on future water resources in the Yadkin River Basin, North Carolina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, K. L.; Vose, J. M.; Hwang, T.; Coulston, J.; Band, L. E.; Wear, D. N.

    2014-12-01

    Rapid changes in climate and socio-economic systems are affecting hydrologic processes and fresh water availability. In particular, temperatures, population growth and urban development are all expected to increase in the Southern United States over the next 50 years, which will further stress regional water resources. With improved knowledge of the interactions among land use-land cover (LULC), climate change, and hydrologic processes, decision makers and natural resource managers can explore opportunities to increase the resilience of water resources to future changes. To address this need, we investigated the impacts of climate and LULC changes on water resources throughout the Yadkin River watershed in North Carolina. From forested headwaters in the Blue Ridge Mountains, the Yadkin River flows through agricultural areas and regions of expanding urbanization in the Piedmont. We selected small watersheds representative of each region for detailed analyses, including changes in LULC, climate, and stream flow. We found no significant trends in water yield, precipitation, or evapotranspiration in representative watersheds dominated by forest, agriculture, or medium intensity development using historic climate and USGS stream gauge data. This suggests that precipitation and LULC have been relatively stable throughout the Yadkin watershed over the last two to three decades. However, our approach melding the National Land Cover Data and U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis Plots indicate that the watershed will experience rapid and substantial changes in land use over the next 50 years, particularly as forest is replaced by urban development. Preliminary analyses with a distributed ecohydroloic model (RHESSys), suggest water yield is sensitive to LULC even without climate change. We will present results that quantify the impact of these changes on hydrologic processes by applying projections of future climate (9 scenarios) and multiple realizations of LULC

  19. Collaborative Research for Water Resource Management under Climate Change Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brundiers, K.; Garfin, G. M.; Gober, P.; Basile, G.; Bark, R. H.

    2010-12-01

    We present an ongoing project to co-produce science and policy called Collaborative Planning for Climate Change: An Integrated Approach to Water-Planning, Climate Downscaling, and Robust Decision-Making. The project responds to motivations related to dealing with sustainability challenges in research and practice: (a) state and municipal water managers seek research that addresses their planning needs; (b) the scientific literature and funding agencies call for more meaningful engagement between science and policy communities, in ways that address user needs, while advancing basic research; and (c) empirical research contributes to methods for the design and implementation of collaborative projects. To understand how climate change might impact water resources and management in the Southwest US, our project convenes local, state, and federal water management practitioners with climate-, hydrology-, policy-, and decision scientists. Three areas of research inform this collaboration: (a) the role of paleo-hydrology in water resources scenario construction; (b) the types of uncertainties that impact decision-making beyond climate and modeling uncertainty; and (c) basin-scale statistical and dynamical downscaling of climate models to generate hydrologic projections for regional water resources planning. The project engages all participants in the research process, from research design to workshops that build capacity for understanding data generation and sources of uncertainty to the discussion of water management decision contexts. A team of “science-practice translators” facilitates the collaboration between academic and professional communities. In this presentation we contextualize the challenges and opportunities of use-inspired science-policy research collaborations by contrasting the initial project design with the process of implementation. We draw from two sources to derive lessons learned: literature on collaborative research, and evaluations provided by

  20. Deficit irrigation and sustainable water-resource strategies in agriculture for China's food security.

    PubMed

    Du, Taisheng; Kang, Shaozhong; Zhang, Jianhua; Davies, William J

    2015-04-01

    More than 70% of fresh water is used in agriculture in many parts of the world, but competition for domestic and industrial water use is intense. For future global food security, water use in agriculture must become sustainable. Agricultural water-use efficiency and water productivity can be improved at different points from the stomatal to the regional scale. A promising approach is the use of deficit irrigation, which can both save water and induce plant physiological regulations such as stomatal opening and reproductive and vegetative growth. At the scales of the irrigation district, the catchment, and the region, there can be many other components to a sustainable water-resources strategy. There is much interest in whether crop water use can be regulated as a function of understanding of physiological responses. If this is the case, then agricultural water resources can be reallocated to the benefit of the broader community. We summarize the extent of use and impact of deficit irrigation within China. A sustainable strategy for allocation of agricultural water resources for food security is proposed. Our intention is to build an integrative system to control crop water use during different cropping stages and actively regulate the plant's growth, productivity, and development based on physiological responses. This is done with a view to improving the allocation of limited agricultural water resources. PMID:25873664

  1. Deficit irrigation and sustainable water-resource strategies in agriculture for China’s food security

    PubMed Central

    Du, Taisheng; Kang, Shaozhong; Zhang, Jianhua; Davies, William J.

    2015-01-01

    More than 70% of fresh water is used in agriculture in many parts of the world, but competition for domestic and industrial water use is intense. For future global food security, water use in agriculture must become sustainable. Agricultural water-use efficiency and water productivity can be improved at different points from the stomatal to the regional scale. A promising approach is the use of deficit irrigation, which can both save water and induce plant physiological regulations such as stomatal opening and reproductive and vegetative growth. At the scales of the irrigation district, the catchment, and the region, there can be many other components to a sustainable water-resources strategy. There is much interest in whether crop water use can be regulated as a function of understanding of physiological responses. If this is the case, then agricultural water resources can be reallocated to the benefit of the broader community. We summarize the extent of use and impact of deficit irrigation within China. A sustainable strategy for allocation of agricultural water resources for food security is proposed. Our intention is to build an integrative system to control crop water use during different cropping stages and actively regulate the plant’s growth, productivity, and development based on physiological responses. This is done with a view to improving the allocation of limited agricultural water resources. PMID:25873664

  2. Use of Climatic Information In Regional Water Resources Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Claps, P.

    Relations between climatic parameters and hydrological variables at the basin scale are investigated, with the aim of evaluating in a parsimonious way physical parameters useful both for a climatic classification of an area and for supporting statistical models of water resources assessment. With reference to the first point, literature methods for distributed evaluation of parameters such as temperature, global and net solar radiation, precipitation, have been considered at the annual scale with the aim of considering the viewpoint of the robust evaluation of parameters based on few basic physical variables of simple determination. Elevation, latitude and average annual number of sunny days have demonstrated to be the essential parameters with respect to the evaluation of climatic indices related to the soil water deficit and to the radiative balance. The latter term was evaluated at the monthly scale and validated (in the `global' term) with measured data. in questo caso riferite al bilancio idrico a scala annuale. Budyko, Thornthwaite and Emberger climatic indices were evaluated on the 10,000 km2 territory of the Basilicata region (southern Italy) based on a 1.1. km grid. They were compared in terms of spatial variability and sensitivity to the variation of the basic variables in humid and semi-arid areas. The use of the climatic index data with respect to statistical parameters of the runoff series in some gauging stations of the region demonstrated the possibility to support regionalisation of the annual runoff using climatic information, with clear distinction of the variability of the coefficient of variation in terms of the humidity-aridity of the basin.

  3. Water resource management for sustainable agriculture in Punjab, India.

    PubMed

    Aggarwal, Rajan; Kaushal, Mohinder; Kaur, Samanpreet; Farmaha, Bhupinder

    2009-01-01

    The state of Punjab comprising 1.5% area of the country has been contributing 40-50% rice and 60-65% wheat to the central pool since last three decades. During last 35 years The area under foodgrains has increased from 39,200 sq km ha to 63,400 sq km and the production of rice and wheat has increased from 0.18 to 0.32 kg/m2 and 0.22 to 0.43 kg/m2 respectively. This change in cropping pattern has increased irrigation water requirement tremendously and the irrigated area has increased from 71 to 95% in the state. Also the number of tube wells has increased from 0.192 to 1.165 million in the last 35 years. The excessive indiscriminate exploitation of ground water has created a declining water table situation in the state. The problem is most critical in central Punjab. The average rate of decline over the last few years has been 55 cm per year. The worst affected districts are Moga, Sangrur, Nawanshahar, Ludhiana and Jalandhar. This has resulted in extra power consumption, affects the socio-economic conditions of the small farmers, destroy the ecological balance and adversely affect the sustainable agricultural production and economy of the state. Therefore, in this paper attempt has been made to analyse the problem of declining water table, possible factors responsible for this and suggest suitable strategies for arresting declining water table for sustainable agriculture in Punjab. The strategies include shift of cropping pattern, delay in paddy transplantation, precision irrigation and rainwater harvesting for artificial groundwater recharge. PMID:19934512

  4. Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark.

    PubMed

    Jensen, Trine S; Jensen, Jørgen D; Hasler, Berit; Illerup, Jytte B; Andersen, Frits M

    2007-01-01

    Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool to evaluate environmental consequences of policy initiatives. However, the usefulness of such models is often restricted by the fact that these models only include a limited set of environmental impacts, which are often energy-related emissions. In order to evaluate the development in the overall environmental pressure correctly, these model systems must be extended. In this article an integrated macroeconomic model system of the Danish economy with environmental modules of energy related emissions is extended to include the agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification. Next to the energy sector, the agricultural sector is the most important contributor to these environmental themes and subsequently the extended model complex calculates more than 99% of the contribution to both climate change and acidification. Environmental sub-models are developed for agriculture-related emissions of CH(4), N(2)O and NH(3). Agricultural emission sources related to the production specific activity variables are mapped and emission dependent parameters are identified in order to calculate emission coefficients. The emission coefficients are linked to the economic activity variables of the Danish agricultural production. The model system is demonstrated by projections of agriculture-related emissions in Denmark under two alternative sets of assumptions: a baseline projection of the general economic development and a policy scenario for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector. PMID:16549237

  5. Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Agricultural Land Use, and Regional Carbon Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MU, J.

    2014-12-01

    Changes in land use have caused a net release of carbon to the atmosphere over the last centuries and decades1. On one hand, agriculture accounts for 52% and 84% of global anthropogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions, respectively. On the other hand, many agricultural practices can potentially mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the most prominent of which are improved cropland and grazing land management2. From this perspective, land use change that reduces emissions and/or increases carbon sequestration can play an important role in climate change mitigation. As shown in Figure 1, this paper is an integrated study of climate impacts, land uses, and regional carbon changes to examine, link and assess climate impacts on regional carbon changes via impacts on land uses. This study will contribute to previous research in two aspects: impacts of climate change on future land uses under an uncertain future world and projections of regional carbon dynamics due to changes in future land use. Specifically, we will examine how land use change under historical climate change using observed data and then project changes in land use under future climate projections from 14 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two emission scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). More importantly, we will investigate future land use under uncertainties with changes in agricultural development and social-economic conditions along with a changing climate. By doing this, we then could integrate with existing efforts by USGS land-change scientists developing and parameterizing models capable of projecting changes across a full spectrum of land use and land cover changes and track the consequences on ecosystem carbon to provide better information for land managers and policy makers when informing climate change adaptation and mitigation policies.

  6. Preparation of high resolution climate scenarios for agricultural impact analysis in Hungary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobor, L.; Barcza, Z.; Havasi, Á.; Fodor, N.

    2012-04-01

    Climate change may significantly alter agricultural productivity which could directly affect food security in several parts of the world during the 21st century. In order to mitigate the robust effects of climate change, agriculture related impact studies are needed. Reliable regional climate model (RCM) based scenarios are essential to realistic estimations of the potential effects of the changing climate conditions. Every climate model suffers from systematic errors (e.g. under- or overestimation the amount and frequency of precipitation), which may prevent direct application of the RCM results for agricultural purposes. There are several bias correction strategies to correct those errors in the RCM datasets. Our main aim is to correct the available, state-of-the-art RCM results to prepare complex impact studies for the Carpathian Basin. The overarching aim is to estimate the expected changes of agricultural productivity in Hungary. In this study eight RCM experiments are used that were created and disseminated within the framework of the ENSEMBLES FP6 project. After statistical bias correction the daily data is used to drive the 4Mx crop simulation mode which is a daily-step, deterministic model that simulates the water and nutrient balance of the soil, the soil-plant interactions as well as the plant development and growth. 4Mx was developed in the Research Institute for Soil Science and Agricultural Chemistry of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. In the present study the effect of bias correction on the climate scenarios as well as on selected crop simulation results is demonstrated.

  7. Phosphorus dynamics in lowland streams as a response to climatic, hydrological and agricultural land use gradients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goyenola, G.; Meerhoff, M.; Teixeira-de Mello, F.; González-Bergonzoni, I.; Graeber, D.; Fosalba, C.; Vidal, N.; Mazzeo, N.; Ovesen, N. B.; Jeppesen, E.; Kronvang, B.

    2015-03-01

    Climate and hydrology are relevant control factors for determining the timing and amount of nutrient losses from agricultural fields to freshwaters. In this study, we evaluated the effect of agricultural intensification on the concentrations, dynamics and export of phosphorus (P) in streams in two contrasting climate and hydrological regimes (temperate Denmark and subtropical Uruguay). We applied two alternative nutrient sampling programmes (high frequency composite sampling and low frequency instantaneous-grab sampling) and three alternative methods to estimate exported P from the catchments. A source apportionment model was applied to evaluate the contribution derived from point and diffuse sources in all four catchments studied. Climatic and hydrological characteristics of catchments expressed as flow responsiveness (flashiness), exerted control on catchment and stream TP dynamics, having consequences that were more significant than the outcome of different TP monitoring and export estimation strategies. The impact of intensification of agriculture differed between the two contrasting climate zones. Intensification had a significant impact on subtropical climate with much higher total (as high as 4436 μg P L-1), particulate, dissolved and reactive soluble P concentrations and higher P export (as high as 5.20 kg P ha-1 year-1). However, we did not find an increased contribution of particulate P to total P as consequence of higher stream flashiness and intensification of agriculture. The high P concentrations at low flow and predominance of dissolved P in subtropical streams actually exacerbate the environmental and sanitary risks associated with eutrophication. In the other hand, temperate intensively farmed stream had lower TP than extensively farmed stream. Our results suggest that the lack of environmental regulations of agricultural production has more severe consequences on water quality, than climatic and hydrological differences between the analysed

  8. A Two-Tier Statistical Forecast Method for Agricultural and Resource Management Simulations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Simple conditional methods to predict growing season climate based on the state of leading ENSO sea-surface temperature (SSTA) and sea-level pressure anomaly (SLPA) indicators provide the means to model and study the effects of forecast information in agriculture, but may be limited in their accurac...

  9. Climate change information supporting adaptation in forestry and agriculture - results and challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gálos, Borbála; Czimber, Kornél; Gribovszki, Zoltán; Bidló, András; Csáki, Péter; Kalicz, Péter; Haensler, Andreas; Jacob, Daniela; Mátyás, Csaba

    2015-04-01

    Recurrent droughts of the last decades have led to severe impacts in forestry and agriculture in the sensitive and vulnerable low-elevation regions of Southeast Europe. Observed impacts are very likely to occur with increasing probability under projected climate conditions throughout the 21st century. In order to suggest options for adaptation and mitigation, a GIS-based Decision Support System is under development in the frame of the joint EU-national research project "Agroclimate". Impact assessments and adaptation support services are based on the simulation results of 12 regional climate models (www.ensembles-eu.org) using the A1B emission scenario until 2100. The development of the Decision Support System requires the balancing of available climatic information and required data for research and economically relevant projection needs of the end users. Here, concrete examples of the development process will be shown for the stepwise analysis and comparison of the followings: 1. Provided climate services: • projected tendencies of temperature and precipitation means and extremes until the end of the 21st century, spread of the simulation results. 2. Required information for climate impact research: • types and characteristics of climate input data, • methods and functions for deriving possible climate change impacts in forestry and agriculture (e.g. on species distribution, growth, production, yield, soil water retention, ground water table, runoff, erosion, evapotranspiration and other ecosystem services and soil properties). 3. Required climate information from the end users' side for developing adaption strategies in the affected sectors: • types of climate indicators, • possible range of the expected impacts (in magnitude and probability). 4. Gaps between climate services and the needs of impact researchers and end users (e.g. spatial and temporal scales, interpretation techniques). Experiences of supporting climate change adaptation in forestry

  10. Climate Change Information Dashboards for Water Resource Managers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buja, Lawrence

    2016-04-01

    It is in the context of its application that one needs to determine if climate information is of high quality and ultimately useful. Therefore, it is important that the intersection between data providers and data consumers is structured in form of an iterative and collaborative exchange where science and application viewpoints can be brought together. A traditional "loading dock"-style hand-off of data fails to optimally inform decisions. It is now broadly recognized that a collaborative, open exchange is better suited to generate credible and salient products and knowledge that can be more confidently used in decisions. But in order for this exchange to be successful in practice, it needs to be sufficiently efficient to actually facilitate an exploratory process that is inherently iterative to determine the most informative products. It also requires a transparent approach that is easily understood and communicated. We will present prototypes of Climate Information Dashboards that collect on a single page to integrate a suite of key climate information for resource managers. The content of dashboards is based on standardized products that can be assembled to meet specific needs. They were co-designed with the water resource managers and are tailored to selected management and decision topics. The visualizations are tuned to quickly provide the basic information, yet below individual diagnostics are more detailed analyses that can be consulted. These dashboards offer a flexible way to connect decision-makers to climate model output. Conversely, such dashboards can also be applied to inform model development by providing insight into a suite of key characteristics of model performance that have been identified as critical by a sector.

  11. Monitoring agricultural drought with climate-based drought indices in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, H.; Zhang, C., Sr.; Jeffery, R. C.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural drought monitoring significantly influences food security in recent decades. Soil moisture shortages adversely affecting agriculture is one important indicator for agricultural drought monitoring. Because of limited soil moisture observations, characterizing soil moisture using climate-based drought indices has great practical meaning. The agricultural area in China was identified by crop identification from remotely sensed data. Drought indices of multiple timescale or from two-layer bucket model were analyzed. In most agricultural areas of China, surface soil moisture is more affected by drought indices having shorter time scales while deep-layer soil moisture is more related on longer time scales. In general, multiscalar drought indices work better than drought indices from two-layer bucket models. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) works similarly or better than the standardized precipitation index (SPI) in characterizing soil moisture at different soil layers. In most stations in China, the Z index has a higher correlation with soil moisture at 0-5 cm than the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), which in turn has a higher correlation with soil moisture at 90-100-cm depth than the Z index. Soil moisture-drought indices relationship was significantly affected by soil organic carbon density. Effective agriculture drought monitoring can be conducted with climate-based drought indices from widely available climatic data and crop area identification from remote sensing. Authors:Hongshuo wang1, Chao Zhang1, Jeffery C Rogers2 1 China agricultural university 2 Ohio state University Key words: Agricultural drought, SPI, SPEI, PDSI, Z index, crop identification

  12. Impacts of Interannual Climate Variability on Agricultural and Marine Ecosystems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cane, M. A.; Zebiak, S.; Kaplan, A.; Chen, D.

    2001-01-01

    The El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of global interannual climate variability, and seems to be the only mode for which current prediction methods are more skillful than climatology or persistence. The Zebiak and Cane intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model has been in use for ENSO prediction for more than a decade, with notable success. However, the sole dependence of its original initialization scheme and the improved initialization on wind fields derived from merchant ship observations proved to be a liability during 1997/1998 El Nino event: the deficiencies of wind observations prevented the oceanic component of the model from reaching the realistic state during the year prior to the event, and the forecast failed. Our work on the project was concentrated on the use of satellite data for improving various stages of ENSO prediction technology: model initialization, bias correction, and data assimilation. Close collaboration with other teams of the IDS project was maintained throughout.

  13. An exploratory study on occurrence and impact of climate change on agriculture in Tamil Nadu, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Varadan, R. Jayakumara; Kumar, Pramod; Jha, Girish Kumar; Pal, Suresh; Singh, Rashmi

    2015-12-01

    This study has been undertaken to examine the occurrence of climate change in Tamil Nadu, the southernmost state of India and its impact on rainfall pattern which is a primary constraint for agricultural production. Among the five sample stations examined across the state, the minimum temperature has increased significantly in Coimbatore while the same has decreased significantly in Vellore whereas both minimum and maximum temperatures have increased significantly in Madurai since 1969 with climate change occurring between late 1980s and early 1990s. As a result, the south-west monsoon has been disturbed with August rainfall increasing with more dispersion while September rainfall decreasing with less dispersion. Thus, September, the peak rainfall month of south-west monsoon before climate change, has become the monsoon receding month after climate change. Though there has been no change in the trend of the north-east monsoon, the quantity of October and November rainfall has considerably increased with increased dispersion after climate change. On the whole, south-west monsoon has decreased with decreased dispersion while north-east monsoon has increased with increased dispersion. Consequently, the season window for south-west monsoon crops has shortened while the north-east monsoon crops are left to fend against flood risk during their initial stages. Further, the incoherence in warming, climate change and rainfall impact seen across the state necessitates devising different indigenous and institutional adaptation strategies for different regions to overcome the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture.

  14. Building Capacity to Use Earth Observations in Decision Making for Climate, Health, Agriculture and Natural Disasters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robertson, A. W.; Ceccato, P.

    2015-12-01

    In order to fill the gaps existing in climate and public health, agriculture, natural disasters knowledge and practices, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) has developed a Curriculum for Best Practices in Climate Information. This Curriculum builds on the experience of 10 years courses on 'Climate Information' and captures lessons and experiences from different tailored trainings that have been implemented in many countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. In this presentation, we will provide examples of training activities we have developed to bring remote sensing products to monitor climatic and environmental information into decision processes that benefited users such as the World Health Organization, Ministries of Health, Ministries of Agriculture, Universities, Research Centers such as CIFOR and FIOCRUZ. The framework developed by IRI to provide capacity building is based on the IDEAS framework: Innovation (research) Around climate impacts, evaluation of interventions, and the value of climate information in reducing risks and maximizing opportunities Demonstration E.g. in-country GFCS projects in Tanzania and Malawi - or El Nino work in Ethiopia Education Academic and professional training efforts Advocacy This might focus on communication of variability and change? We are WHO collaborating center so are engaged through RBM/Global Malaria Programme Service ENACTS and Data library key to this. Country data better quality than NASA as incorporates all relevant station data and NASA products. This presentation will demonstrate how the IDEAS framework has been implemented and lessons learned.

  15. Structural equation modeling facilitates transdisciplinary research on agriculture and climate change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change is representative of many of the “grand challenges” facing agriculture and the environment—it is complex, spans traditional disciplinary boundaries, and is both a consequence and driver of coupled physical, biological, and socioeconomic processes acting at multiple spatial and tempora...

  16. Climate change, plant traits, and invasion in natural and agricultural ecosystems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Invasive species and climate change, each of which is likely to influence agricultural productivity and biological diversity, are also likely to interact. This chapter explores characteristics of both invasive plants and invaded ecosystems to search for generalizations that may allow us to predict w...

  17. Challenging a trickle-down view of climate change on agriculture and groundwater

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Global climate change is largely viewed as affecting ecohydrology of the Earth’s surface, but various studies are showing deeper effects on groundwater. Agricultural systems may be studied at the land surface and into the root zone with deeper effects of water and chemical movement to groundwater. ...

  18. A system's approach to assess the exposure of agricultural production to climate change and variability

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Estimating the exposure of agriculture to climate variability and change can help us to understand the key vulnerability as well as improve the adaptive capacity which is important for increasing food production to feed the world’s increasing population. A number of indices are available in literat...

  19. Climate Impacts on Agriculture in the United States: Understanding the Value of Past Observations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate impacts on agriculture are observed in a variety of ways, either through reduced biomass or grain yield. Within the United States we are fortunate to have an extensive database of crop yields by state and county level for nearly 100 years and access to a well-maintained and available climati...

  20. COST 734-CLIVAGRI: Impacts of Climate change and Variability on European Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orlandini, S.; Nejedlik, P.; Eitzinger, J.; Alexandrov, V.; Toulios, L.; Kajfez Bogataj, L.; Calanca, P.; Trnka, M.; Olesen, J. E.

    2009-09-01

    COST is an intergovernmental framework for European Cooperation in Science and Technology, funded by its member countries through the EU Framework Programme. The objective of COST is to coordinate, integrate and synthesise results from ongoing national research within and between COST member countries to add value to research investment. COST Actions aim to deliver scientific syntheses and analyses of best available practice to aid problem identification, risk assessment, public utilities and policy development. During 2006, COST Action 734 (CLIVAGRI-Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture) was launched thanks to the coordinated activity of 15 EU countries. The main objective of the Action is the evaluation of possible impacts from climate change and variability on agriculture and the assessment of critical thresholds for various European areas (COST 734 MoU. www.cost.esf.org). Secondary objectives are: the collection and review of existing agroclimatic indices and simulation models, to assess hazard impacts on various European agricultural areas relating hazards to climatic conditions; building climate scenarios for the next few decades; the definition of harmonised criteria to evaluate the impacts of climate change and variability on agriculture; the definition of warning systems guidelines. Four working groups, with the integration of remote sensing sub working group 2.1 were created to address these aims: WG1 - Agroclimatic indices and simulation models WG2 - Evaluation of the current trends of agroclimatic indices and simulation model outputs describing agricultural impacts and hazard levels WG3 - Development and assessment of future regional and local scenarios of agroclimatic conditions WG4 - Risk assessment and foreseen impacts on agriculture The activity of WGs has been structured like a matrix, presenting on the rows the methods of analysis and on the columns the phenomena and the hazards. Each intersection point describes the

  1. Climate change, water rights, and water supply: The case of irrigated agriculture in Idaho

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Wenchao; Lowe, Scott E.; Adams, Richard M.

    2014-12-01

    We conduct a hedonic analysis to estimate the response of agricultural land use to water supply information under the Prior Appropriation Doctrine by using Idaho as a case study. Our analysis includes long-term climate (weather) trends and water supply conditions as well as seasonal water supply forecasts. A farm-level panel data set, which accounts for the priority effects of water rights and controls for diversified crop mixes and rotation practices, is used. Our results indicate that farmers respond to the long-term surface and ground water conditions as well as to the seasonal water supply variations. Climate change-induced variations in climate and water supply conditions could lead to substantial damages to irrigated agriculture. We project substantial losses (up to 32%) of the average crop revenue for major agricultural areas under future climate scenarios in Idaho. Finally, farmers demonstrate significantly varied responses given their water rights priorities, which imply that the distributional impact of climate change is sensitive to institutions such as the Prior Appropriation Doctrine.

  2. REDD+ and climate smart agriculture in landscapes: A case study in Vietnam using companion modelling.

    PubMed

    Salvini, G; Ligtenberg, A; van Paassen, A; Bregt, A K; Avitabile, V; Herold, M

    2016-05-01

    Finding land use strategies that merge land-based climate change mitigation measures and adaptation strategies is still an open issue in climate discourse. This article explores synergies and trade-offs between REDD+, a scheme that focuses mainly on mitigation through forest conservation, with "Climate Smart Agriculture", an approach that emphasizes adaptive agriculture. We introduce a framework for ex-ante assessment of the impact of land management policies and interventions and for quantifying their impacts on land-based mitigation and adaptation goals. The framework includes a companion modelling (ComMod) process informed by interviews with policymakers, local experts and local farmers. The ComMod process consists of a Role-Playing Game with local farmers and an Agent Based Model. The game provided a participatory means to develop policy and climate change scenarios. These scenarios were then used as inputs to the Agent Based Model, a spatially explicit model to simulate landscape dynamics and the associated carbon emissions over decades. We applied the framework using as case study a community in central Vietnam, characterized by deforestation for subsistence agriculture and cultivation of acacias as a cash crop. The main findings show that the framework is useful in guiding consideration of local stakeholders' goals, needs and constraints. Additionally the framework provided beneficial information to policymakers, pointing to ways that policies might be re-designed to make them better tailored to local circumstances and therefore more effective in addressing synergistically climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives. PMID:26921566

  3. How could Mosan agriculture be impacted by climate change and future droughts ?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauwens, A.; Sohier, C.; Deraedt, D.; Degré, A.

    2012-04-01

    Despite the great uncertainties regarding the future climatic context, lots of studies have focused on hydrological effects of climate change on the Meuse catchment. It appears that both winter high flows and summer low flows could be exacerbated. Climate change and its impacts on hydrology will thus affect various socio-economic sectors. High flows have been widely studied compared to low-flows. This poster will put the emphasis on a methodology developed in order to study impacts of droughts on agriculture. Agriculture is among the most impacted sectors due to climate change. The consequences could be both positive as negative in accordance with the range of predicted changes and the adaptation capacity of agricultural systems. Most of the existing studies related to climate change on agriculture focused on specific territory. Within the AMICE Interreg IVB project, a transnational approach has been developed to assess droughts impacts on agriculture through the Meuse basin. The project's previous works gave us a common scenario of climate trends and of the evolution of the hydrology in the Meuse basin. The methodology is based on the use of a physically-based model able to simulate the water-soil-plant continuum (derived from EPIC model). In order to be transferable from one country to another, the methodology proposed used data available at the basin scale. The UE soil data base was complemented with local information on agricultural practices and statistics. Three crops have been studied: maize, wheat and barley. The basic cultural calendar is supposed to be the same for the different countries. The methodology developed permits to study the evolution of yields, leaf area index, crops stress due to excess or lack of water through time under different scenarios build up in the frame of the project. It appears that corn is negatively affected by climate change, and thus despite the CO2 fertilization effect. Wheat and barley have similar behavior and are

  4. [Association study between water quality of Chaohu Lake and resources input in agriculture of basin].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yan; Gao, Xiang; Zhang, Hong

    2012-09-01

    In order to discuss the association between the water quality of Chaohu Lake and the resources input in agriculture of the basin, factors that may affect the lake eutrophication are chosen, such as surplus fertilizer, irrigated area with saved water, agricultural films, water and soil loss control and so on. The methods of correlation analysis and stepwise regression are used. Furthermore, a new method, combined with the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method, calculating the surplus fertilizer is designed. The results indicate that among various resources input in agriculture of the basin the surplus fertilizer, irrigated area with saved water and agricultural films have a great influence on Chaohu Lake eutrophication. And one year's lag phase between the water quality of Chaohu Lake and the surplus fertilizer is confirmed. Therefore, it is necessary to raise the utilization efficiency of fertilizer, to improve the irrigation way and to decrease the agricultural water consumption in order to conserve resources and to reduce the influence of agricultural production on the water quality of Chaohu Lake. PMID:23243852

  5. Improving models to assess impacts of climate change on Mediterranean water resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rocha, João; Carvalho Santos, Cláudia; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro

    2016-04-01

    In recent decades, water availability for human consumption has faced major constraints due to increasing pollution and reduced water availability. Water resources availability can gain additional stresses and pressures in the context of potential climate change scenarios. For the last decades, the climate change paradigm has been the scope of many researchers and the focus of decision makers, policies and environmental/climate legislation. Decision-makers face a wide range of constrains, as they are forced to define new strategies that merge planning, management and climate change adaptations. In turn, decision-makers must create integrated strategies aiming at the sustainable use of resources. There are multiple uncertainties associated with climate change impact assessment and water resources. Typically, most studies have dealt with uncertainties in emission scenarios and resulting socio-economic conditions, including land-use and water use. Less frequently, studies have address the disparities between the future climates generated by climate models for the same greenhouse gas concentrations; and the uncertainties related with the limited knowledge of how watersheds work, which also limits the capacity to simulate them with models. Therefore, the objective of this study is to apply the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model to a catchment in Alentejo, southern Portugal; and to evaluate the uncertainty associated both to the calibration of hydrological models and the use of different climate change scenarios and models (a combination of 4 GCM (General Circulation Models) and 1 RCM (Regional Circulation Models) for the scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The Alentejo region is highly vulnerable to the effects of potential climate changes with particular focus on water resources availability, despite several reservoirs used for freshwater supply and agriculture irrigation (e.g. the Alqueva reservoir - the largest artificial lake of the Iberian Peninsula

  6. Late Pleistocene Climate Events and The Origin of Agriculture In SW Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossignol-Strick, M.

    favourable locations, on a year-long or semi-permanent basis. They exploited, proba- bly more widely, the vegetal food resources of wild cereals and pulses. In Palestine, this culture is called Natufian. In Syria on the Middle Euphrates, the settlement at Tel Abu Hureira displays a first phase of occupation that yielded wild emmer wheat and two-row barley. These wild varieties of cereals are characterized by a brittle rachis of the ear that insures the wide dispersion of the spikelets at maturity. This Phase I came to an end with the abandonment of the site for several hundred years. The following occupation Phase II immediately yields the domesticated form of cereals, which are 1 mainly identified by the non-brittle, solid rachis at maturity. This mutant form makes possible for man to more efficiently collect the seeds with a sickle or a stick. Based on the local 14C dates, the settlement interruption is coeval with the cold, arid Younger Dryas, and the incipience of Phase II is coeval with the Climate Optimum of the early Holocene. It is striking that the domestication of emmer wheat appears to have taken place during the Younger Dryas. This strong climatic shift must somehow have constrained this most fundamental step in the globally earliest emergence of agriculture, that of SW Asia. The accumulation of grain surplus supported the human population increase that eventually led to the earliest emergence of urban civilization in SW Asia. 2

  7. 78 FR 50085 - Advisory Committee on Climate Change and Natural Resource Science

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-08-16

    ... United States Geological Survey Advisory Committee on Climate Change and Natural Resource Science AGENCY... Climate Change and Natural Resource Science will hold a meeting. DATES: Meetings: The meetings will be...'Malley, Designated Federal Officer, Policy and Partnership Coordinator, National Climate Change...

  8. Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture - an initiative of the University of West Hungary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matyas, Cs.; Berki, I.; Drüszler, A.; Eredics, A.; Galos, B.; Moricz, N.; Rasztovits, E.

    2012-04-01

    In whole Central Europe agricultural production is highly vulnerable and sensitive to impacts of projected climatic changes. The low-elevation regions of the Carpathian Basin (most of the territory of Hungary), where precipitation is the minimum factor of production, are especially exposed to climatic extremes, especially to droughts. Rainfed agriculture, animal husbandry on nature-close pastures and nature-close forestry are the most sensitive sectors due to limited possibilities to counterbalance moisture supply constraints. These sectors have to be best prepared to frequency increase of extreme events, disasters and economic losses. So far, there is a lack of information about the middle and long term consequences on regional and local level. Therefore the importance of complex, long term management planning and of land use optimation is increasing. The aim of the initiative is to set up a fine-scale, GIS-based, complex, integrated system for the definition of the most important regional and local challenges and tasks of climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and also nature protection. The Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture is planned to provide the following services: § Complex, GIS-supported database, which integrates the basic information about present and projected climates, extremes, hydrology and soil conditions; § Evaluation of existing satellite-based and earth-based monitoring systems; § GIS-supported information about the future trends of climate change impacts on the agroecological potential and sensitivity status on regional and local level (e.g. land cover/use and expectable changes, production, water and carbon cycle, biodiversity and other ecosystem services, potential pests and diseases, tolerance limits etc.) in fine-scale horizontal resolution, based first of all on natural produce, including also social and economic consequences; § Complex decision supporting system on

  9. Agricultural water supply/demand changes under projected future climate change in the arid region of northwestern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Ying; Shen, Yanjun

    2016-09-01

    The water resources in the arid region of northwestern China, which are impacted by climate change, tend to be more unstable, and the environment and ecosystems will suffer from severe water shortage. In this paper, potential future climate trends were predicted based on CMIP5 simulations in this region. The water availability and agricultural water demand under future climate change scenarios were estimated. Impacted by increases in temperature, the irrigation water demand will increase by 4.27-6.15 billion m3 in this region over the next 60 years, compared to the demand of 32.75 billion m3 during 1971-2000. However, the annual runoff will only increase by 4.8-8.5 billion m3, which is equivalent to or even less than the increased irrigation water demand. In fact, the increased demand for industrial, domestic and ecological water were not considered here. Thus, the water supply/demand contradiction will result in more severe water shortages in the future. According to a comparison with simulated irrigation water demand under three adaptation strategy scenarios, we should take effective measures such as improving the efficiency of irrigation water utilization, reducing crop planting areas and adjusting crop planting structures to alleviate the impacts of future climate changes and human activities on the water supply and water use in this region.

  10. Determining the effect of climate change and development on water resources management in the Sudan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satti, S.; Zaitchik, B.; Siddiqui, S.

    2013-12-01

    The effects of development and the uncertainty of climate change in East Africa provide a myriad of challenges for water managers along the Blue Nile. The construction of the Grand renaissance dam (GRD), as well as the unknown trajectory of precipitation trends in the Ethiopian highlands may greatly affect the countries that rely on the Nile. Sudan's huge irrigation potential and dams that feed multiple current irrigation schemes as well as its location within the basin means that Sudan's water management decisions may reverberate and have social, economic and political implications within the east African sub-region. Here, we apply a suite of state-of-the-art hydrology and climate analysis tools to evaluate the sensitivity of Sudan's optimal hydropower and irrigation development pathways to hydrologic variability and climate change. Present day hydrologic conditions are derived from a gridded implementation of the Noah Land Surface Model (LSM) that includes representation of typical irrigation practices in the region. Noah is implemented using the NASA Land Information System (LIS), and draws forcing data from a combination of reanalysis and satellite meteorological products. Additional satellite inputs are used to provide a constraint on Noah evapotranspiration estimates and to acquire parameters such as crop water requirements that are crucial in determining yield and agricultural production. Future climate conditions are projected using statistical downscaling techniques trained to historical meteorological records and projected forward using inputs from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulation database. These climatic and hydrologic inputs are combined with agronomic and economic inputs to drive an optimization model developed within the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). By using output and results from climate, hydrologic and optimization models this research aims to show how these models can be integrated to aid decision

  11. How climate change threats water resource: the case of the Thau coastal lagoon (Mediterranean Sea, France)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Sellami, Haykel; Cirelli, Claudia

    2014-05-01

    The latest reports of the intergovernmental panel on climate change explained that the Mediterranean regions are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. These latest are expected to have strong impacts on the management of water resources and on regional economies. The aim of this paper is to discuss impacts of climate changes on the Thau case study in relation to the evolution of water balance, water uses and adaptation to climate change. The Thau coastal lagoon is located in the Mediterranean coast in south of France in the Languedoc-Roussillon Region. Economic activities are diverse from shellfish farming, fertilizers industries to agriculture and tourism. However, tourism and shellfish farming are of major importance for local economy. If tourism is mainly turned to the Sea coast, shellfishes grow within the lagoon and rely on water quality. Previous studies have demonstrated the link between the coastal lagoon water quality and inputs of freshwater from the catchment. Thus, changes in rainfalls, runoff and water balance would not only affect water uses but also water quality. Climate changes projections are presented following the implementation of 4 downscaled climatic models. Impacts on water balance are modelled with SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) for 2041-2070 compared to the 1971-2000 reference period. The decrease of precipitations and water balance will impact discharges and thus decrease the freshwater inputs to the coastal lagoon. A study of water uses conducted in interactions with stakeholders within the Thau area has permitted to assess both current and evolution of water uses. It has revealed local water resources are depleting while water demand is increasing and is planned to continue to increase in the really near future. To prevent water scarcity events, mainly due to the climate change context, the Regional authorities have connected the catchment to the Rhône river to import water. The conclusion of this study is while

  12. Environmental Tracers for Determining Water Resource Vulnerability to Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Singleton, M

    2009-07-08

    Predicted changes in the climate will have profound impacts on water availability in the Western US, but large uncertainties exist in our ability to predict how natural and engineered hydrological systems will respond. Most predictions suggest that the impacts of climate change on California water resources are likely to include a decrease in the percentage of precipitation that falls as snow, earlier onset of snow-pack melting, and an increase in the number of rain on snow events. These processes will require changes in infrastructure for water storage and flood control, since much of our current water supply system is built around the storage of winter precipitation as mountain snow pack. Alpine aquifers play a critical role by storing and releasing snowmelt as baseflow to streams long after seasonal precipitation and the disappearance of the snow pack, and in this manner significantly impact the stream flow that drives our water distribution systems. Mountain groundwater recharge and, in particular, the contribution of snowmelt to recharge and baseflow, has been identified as a potentially significant effect missing from current climate change impact studies. The goal of this work is to understand the behavior of critical hydrologic systems, with an emphasis on providing ground truth for next generation models of climate-water system interactions by implementing LLNL capabilities in environmental tracer and isotopic science. We are using noble gas concentrations and multiple isotopic tracers ({sup 3}H/{sup 3}He, {sup 35}S, {sup 222}Rn, {sup 2}H/{sup 1}H, {sup 18}O/{sup 16}O, and {sup 13}C/{sup 12}C) in groundwater and stream water in a small alpine catchment to (1) provide a snapshot of temperature, altitude, and physical processes at the time of recharge, (2) determine subsurface residence times (over time scales ranging from months to decades) of different groundwater age components, and (3) deconvolve the contribution of these different groundwater components

  13. Possible climate warming effects on vegetation, forests, biotic (insect, pathogene) disturbances and agriculture in Central Siberia for 1960- 2050

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Soja, A. J.; Lysanova, G. I.; Baranchikov, Y. N.; Kuzmina, N. A.

    2012-04-01

    Regional Siberian studies have already registered climate warming over the last half a century (1960-2010). Our analysis showed that winters are already 2-3°C warmer in the north and 1-2°C warmer in the south by 2010. Summer temperatures increased by 1°C in the north and by 1-2°C in the south. Change in precipitation is more complicated, increasing on average 10% in middle latitudes and decreasing 10-20% in the south, promoting local drying in already dry landscapes. Our goal was to summarize results of research we have done for the last decade in the context of climate warming and its consequences for biosystems in Central Siberia. We modeled climate change effects on vegetation shifts, on forest composition and agriculture change, on the insect Siberian moth (Dendrolimus suprans sibiricus Tschetv) and pathogene (Lophodermium pinastri Chev) ranges in Central Siberia for a century (1960-2050) based on historical climate data and GCM-predicted data. Principal results are: In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over 50% of central Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest-steppe habitats; At least half of central Siberia is predicted to be climatically suitable for agriculture at the end of the century although potential croplands would be limited by the availability of suitable soils agriculture in central Siberia would likely benefit from climate warming Crop production may twofold increase as climate warms during the century; traditional crops (grain, potato

  14. Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Günther; Shah, Mahendra; Tubiello, Francesco N; van Velhuizen, Harrij

    2005-11-29

    A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological-economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5' X 5' latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change. PMID:16433094

  15. Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080

    PubMed Central

    Fischer, Günther; Shah, Mahendra; N. Tubiello, Francesco; van Velhuizen, Harrij

    2005-01-01

    A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological–economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5′×5′ latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change. PMID:16433094

  16. The Climaware project: Impacts of climate change on water resources management - regional strategies and European view

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thirel, Guillaume; D'Agostino, Daniela; Démerliac, Stéphane; Dorchies, David; Flörke, Martina; Jay-Allemand, Maxime; Jost, Claudine; Kehr, Katrin; Perrin, Charles; Scardigno, Alessandra; Schneider, Christof; Theobald, Stephan; Träbing, Klaus

    2014-05-01

    Climate projections produced with CMIP5 and applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fifth assessment report indicate that changes in precipitation and temperature are expected to occur throughout Europe in the 21th century, with a likely decrease of water availability in many regions. Besides, water demand is also expected to increase, in link with these expected climate modifications, but also due to socio-economic and demographic changes. In this respect, the use of future freshwater resources may not be sustainable from the current water management perspective. Therefore adaptation strategies will most likely be needed to cope with these evolutions. In this context, the main objective of the ClimAware project (2010-2013 - www.uni-kassel.de/fb14/wasserbau/CLIMAWARE/, a project implemented within the IWRM-NET Funding Initiative) was to analyse the impacts of climate change (CC) on freshwater resources at the continental and regional scales and to identify efficient adaptation strategies to improve water management for various socio-economic sectors. This should contribute to a more effective implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and its instruments (river basin management plans, programmes of measures). The project developed integrated measures for improved freshwater management under CC constraints. More specifically, the objectives of the ClimAware project were to: • elaborate quantitative projections of changes in river flows and consequences such as flood frequency, drought occurrence and sectorial water uses. • analyse the effect of CC on the hydromorphological reference conditions of rivers and therefore the definition of "good status". • define management rules/strategies concerning dam management and irrigation practices on different time perspectives. • investigate uncertainties in climate model - scenario combinations. The research approach considered both European and regional perspectives, to get

  17. Climate Change and Agriculture in Africa: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, Molly E.; McCusker, Brent

    2008-11-01

    As climate change has emerged as a significant threat, there is much concern about how vulnerable agricultural communities will adapt, particularly as global population continues to rise. Much of the current lack of productivity and economic marginalization of African agriculture arises from global trade regimes that give a competitive advantage to Western farmers, from low use of agricultural inputs, and from a dearth of infrastructure and services for the agriculture sector. For centuries, African farmers have used a wide variety of risk-reducing livelihood strategies, including diversifying income sources, switching crops, and investing in marketing. However, improving their productivity to ``modern'' levels has remained a distant dream, resulting in a continual reduction in investment in the sector over the past five decades.

  18. Long-term prediction of groundwater recharge by climate changes in the Gosan agricultural area, Jeju Island of South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koh, E. H.; Kaown, D.; Lee, K. K.

    2015-12-01

    Evaluation of long-term changes in groundwater recharge due to the climate changes is needed to secure the sustainable use of grounwater. In Jeju Island, which is composed of various formations of porous volcanic rocks, groundwater is a sole resource for water supply because of its hydrogeological characteristics. Therefore, preservation of the groundwater resource is an essential issue in the island. Prior to establishing a management plan for maintaining the groundwater resources in Jeju Island, long-term estimation of influencing factors are necessary. The Gosan study area is located in the western part of the island, where extensive agricultural activity has been performed and groundwater is a main source of supply for watering crops. In this study, we estimated the recharge changes for 100 years (2000~2099) in the Gosan agricultural area based on two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) by using the HELP3 (Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance) program. The estimated component of water budget in this study are as follows (averaged in 2000~2014), precipitation: 1.28x108 m3/yr; ET: 6.49x107 m3/yr; runoff: 5.84x106 m3/yr; and recharge: 5.27x107 m3/yr. Over the 100 years of the estimated period, precipitation will have a highest increase among other meteorological parameters to be 6.16x109 m3 (RCP4.5) and 6.34 x109 m3 (RCP8.5). Increase in recharge by RCP8.5 scenario (2.75 x109 m3) will be less than that by RCP4.5 (2.77x109 m3) because ET by RCP 8.5 (ET: 3.34x109 m3; runoff: 2.27x108 m3) is estimated to be higher than ET by RCP4.5 (ET: 3.15x109 m3; runoff: 2.35x108 m3). Jeju volcanic island is known to have higher recharge proportions to the precipitation due to the distributed highly porous volcanic rocks. Therefore, variations in precipitation by climate changes would greatly affect the groundwater resource of the island. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the research project of "Advanced Technology for

  19. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

    2010-01-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting

  20. Climate and Agriculture: Model Inter-Comparison for Evaluating the Uncertainties in Climate Change Impact Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geethalakshmi, V.; Lakshmanan, A.; Bhuvaneswari, K.; Rajalakshmi, D.; Sekhar, N. U.; Anbhazhagan, R.; Gurusamy, L.

    2011-12-01

    Presence of large uncertainties in climate models (CM) and in future emission scenarios makes it difficult to predict the long-term climate changes at regional scales. Climate models do a reasonable job of capturing the large-scale aspects of current climate but still contain systematic model errors adding uncertainty to the future projections. Using CM outputs in impact models also cascade the uncertainty in climate change research. A study was undertaken with the objective of evaluating the uncertainty of climate change predictions by comparing the outputs from Regional Climate Models (RCM) and their resultant impact on rice productivity in Bhavani basin of Tamil Nadu, India. Current and future climate data were developed using RCMs viz., RegCM3 and PRECIS considering SRES A1B scenario for 130 years (1971-2100). The RCM outputs were used in DSSAT and EPIC models for assessing the impact of climate change. Results were compared to assess the magnitude of uncertainty in predicting the future climate and the resultant impacts. Comparison of predicted current climate with observed data indicated that RegCM3 under estimates maximum temperature by 1.8 °C while, PRECIS over estimates by 1.1°C over 40 years (1971 - 2010). The minimum temperature was under estimated by both the models, but with varying magnitude (3.8 °C for RegCM3 and 1 °C for PRECIS). RegCM3 over predicted rainfall (14 %), in contrast, PRECIS underpredicted (30.9 %) the same. Future climate projections indicated gradual increase in maximum and minimum temperatures with progress of time. Increase of maximum and minimum temperatures in PRECIS was 3.7oC and 4.2oC respectively and in RegCM3, it was 3.1oC and 3.7oC by 2100. No clear trend could be observed for rainfall other than increase in the quantum compared to current rainfall. Rice yield simulated over Bhavani basin for current and future climate by DSSAT, without CO2 fertilization effect, indicated reduction of 356 and 217 Kg ha-1decade-1 for

  1. Potential Impacts of Wintertime Agricultural Irrigation at Low Latitudes on Global Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wey, H. W.; Lo, M. H.; Lee, S. Y.; Yu, J. Y.

    2014-12-01

    The effect of agricultural irrigation on environment has long been an important issue to investigate. Since the anthropogenic water management is able to change the surface energy budgets and the water cycle, some research has been done to assess its impacts on both regional and global climate. Note that much of the agricultural irrigation at boreal low latitudes is applied in wintertime. In this study, we use NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) to simulate the land-air interaction processes with water management and the consequent responses in atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle. We conduct some perturbed experiments with different model complexities to clarify the corresponding effects of changes in surface energy balances and atmospheric circulation in both local and global manner. The preliminary results show that the wintertime agricultural irrigation at low latitudes is able to lower the surface Bowen ratio, and reduce the surface temperature in a continental scale through atmospheric feedbacks and to change the intensity of prevailing monsoon circulation. In addition, we observed anomalous tropical precipitation and mid-latitude climatic changes indicating tropical-extra tropical teleconnections. Based on these results, we propose that the location of heavily irrigated place is important to have impacts on remote regions which might be an important consideration on human sustainability. We also try to track the fingerprint of this potential climate forcing in observational data and to estimate its contribution relative to other anthropogenic and natural forcing in future climate projection.

  2. Analysis agriculture's impact in a system of lakes on a karst environment with tropical climate.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olea Olea, Selene; Escolero Fuentes, Oscar

    2015-04-01

    This paper has as main object to analyze the impact of agriculture in the water quality of the "Lagos de Montebello" area; which is located in the Southeast of Mexico. This area is prominent by its tropical climate and a karstic environment. The issue arises in a lake system affected by pollution in the later years, which has turned its former clear water into a highly sedimented muddy water in the topographically lower terrains while no polluted on the higher ones; therefore it is intended to determine if the rise in agricultural activity in the lower terrains has induced this phenomenon. The impact of agriculture has been historically studied in temperate climates with karstic environments; nevertheless it has not been very well studied in tropical climates; which are the reason of this proposal to perform a study to analyze the impact of the intensive agriculture running in the area. To develop this project we studied the area regarding to the types of crops that has being established in the zone, being mostly tomato, corn, and bean; and the fertilizers and pesticides applied to them. A groundwater monitoring plan was designed with a variety of phases such as: piezometers building, measurement of groundwater levels, measurement of field parameters, with a two months intervals (Ph, temperature, electric conductivity, total dissolved solids), and water samplings for laboratory analysis (major ions, nutrients, total organic carbon, pesticides) at twice a year, once during rainy season and then on drought. The rates of pollution agents infiltration depends on the type of soil retention and volume of water. The materials found in the soil by the piezometers are clay, silt, sand and variations between them. We determined that the geochemical qualities of the groundwater vary from calcic bicarbonate to calcic sulfated. The results reached with this monitoring provides a preliminary diagnosis on the possible causes and other implications that intensive agriculture in a

  3. Utilization of remotely sensed data for agricultural insurance as adaptation to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hongo, C.; Ogasawara, C.; Sigit, G.; Tamura, E.

    2015-12-01

    Impact of climate change is not only seen on food production but also on food security, socio-economics of the poor and sustainable development of society. Adaptation to climate change is a pressing issue throughout the world to reduce the risks along with the plans and strategies for food security and sustainable development. As a key adaptation to the climate change, agricultural insurance is expected to play an important role in stabilizing agricultural production through compensating the losses caused by the climate change, meaning that the agricultural insurance can contribute to promotion of the stability in food security as one of 4 pillars defined by FOA of the United Nations. Having the above as background, we conducted research on utilization of remote sensing data including satellite data to assess damage ratio of rice production which could be used for calculation of indemnity in the agricultural insurance. Our study site was in West Java, Indonesia. For assessment of the damage ratio, estimation of rice yield is a key. As the result of our study, rice yield in dry season could be estimated at level of 1 % significance using SPOT5 satellite data taken in 2014, and the 10-fold cross-validation result was 0.7t/ha. Then, the decrease ratio in rice yield about each individual paddy field was calculated using data on the estimated result and the average yield of the past 10 years. According to the Indonesian agricultural insurance, if the damage of rice reaches 75% or above, the indemnity shall be paid to farmers. In our study site, the result showed that about 80 paddy fields located in lower irrigation region were the area to be paid by the insurance. Our study results suggest that the utilization of remote sensing data is much useful and promising for assessment of the damage ratio of rice production with precise, quick and quantitative, and also it can be incorporated into the insurance procedures.

  4. GCM Hindcasts for SST Forced Climate Variability over Agriculturally Intensive Regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Shah, Kathryn P.; Chandler, Mark A.; Rind, David

    1998-01-01

    The ability to forecast seasonal climate is of great practical interest. One of the most obvious benefits would be agriculture, for which various preparations (planting, machinery, irrigation, manpower) would be enabled. The expectation of being able to make such forecasts far enough in advance (on the order of 9 months) hinges on components of the system with the longest persistence or predictability. The mixed results of El Nino forecasts has raised the hope that tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) fall into this category. For agriculturally-relevant forecasts to be made, and utilized, requires several conditions. The SST in the regions that affect agricultural areas must be forecast successfully, many months in advance. The climate response to such sea surface temperatures must then be ascertained, either through the use of historical empirical studies or models (e.g., GCMS). For practical applications, the agricultural production must be strongly influenced by climate, and farmers on either the local level or through commercial concerns must be able to adjust to using such forecasts. In a continuing series of papers, we will explore each of these components. This article concerns the question of utilizing SST to forecast the climate in several regions of agricultural production. We optimize the possibility of doing so successfully by using observed SST in a hindcast mode (i.e., a perfect forecast), and we also use the globally observed values (rather than just those from the tropical Pacific, for which predictability has been shown). This then is the ideal situation; in subsequent papers we will explore degrading the results by using only tropical Pacific SSTs, and then using only

  5. Science Education in Two-Year Colleges: Agriculture and Natural Resources.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beckwith, Miriam M.

    Agricultural and natural resources education in two-year colleges is examined as revealed by a study of science education that involved: (1) a review of the literature, (2) an examination of 175 college catalogs and class schedules from colleges nationwide, and (3) a survey of 1,275 science teachers. Part I of the study report discusses…

  6. Water Resources and Agricultural Water Use in the North China Plain: Current Status and Management Options

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Serious water deficits with deteriorating environmental quality are threatening agricultural sustainability in the North China Plain (NCP). This paper addresses spatial and temporal availability of water resources in the NCP, and identifies the effects of soil management, irrigation and crop genetic...

  7. A Study to Determine Competencies Needed in Selected Job Titles in Agricultural Resources Occupations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bishop, Douglas D.; And Others

    The report is a composite, compilation, and analysis of data collected from selected job titles (soil conservation technician, civil engineering technician, dairy herd improvement supervisor, and lay food inspector) in agricultural resources occupations. The study was conducted to obtain a comprehensive analysis of the occupations and the…

  8. The Common Market Concept: Using Community Based Resources in New Ways to Deliver Innovative Agriculture Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Upchurch, Jim; Fischer, Larry

    The cooperative agricultural programs described in this report were undertaken by John Wood Community College (JWCC) as part of a "common market" instructional delivery system, which utilizes existing community resources through contractual agreements with area schools, businesses, and government agencies. The report first provides a rationale for…

  9. Kids, Crops, & Critters in the Classroom: An Agricultural Literacy Resource Guide for Grades K-3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Illinois Farm Bureau, Bloomington.

    This resource guide provides teachers of grades K-3 with ideas and materials to integrate agricultural concepts into classroom activities. The guide is organized into six categories: math, science, language arts, social studies, fine arts, and health/nutrition/safety. Each of the categories contains 10 lessons organized in the following topic…

  10. Kids, Crops, & Critters in the Classroom: An Agricultural Literacy Resource Guide for Grades 4-6.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Illinois Farm Bureau, Bloomington.

    This resource guide provides teachers of grades 4-6 with ideas and materials to integrate agricultural concepts into classroom activities. The guide is organized into six categories: math, science, language arts, social studies, fine arts, and health/nutrition/safety. Each category contains 10 lessons organized in the following topic order:…

  11. Food and Environment. A Teachers' Resource Guide to California Valley Agriculture.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Railton, Esther, Comp.

    Presented is a compilation of teaching resources prepared by teachers enrolled in a graduate-level environmental education course at California State University, Hayward. The emphasis of these materials is upon agriculture and related environmental practices in California's San Joaquin Valley. Following a description of course logistics are six…

  12. Climatic and agricultural factors in nutrient exports from two watersheds in Ohio.

    PubMed

    Moog, Douglas B; Whiting, Peter J

    2002-01-01

    Export of agricultural nutrients and sediment to lakes and oceans is of great environmental concern in many agricultural watersheds. Recent years have seen efforts to reduce loads through agricultural practices such as conservation tillage, efficient fertilization, and reservation of erodible areas. Monitoring the efficacy of such efforts is complicated by the fact they take place against a varying climatic and hydrologic background. In this study, statistical analysis was used to identify those climatic, hydrologic, and agricultural variables that best explained variations in nitrate, phosphorus, and total suspended solids over the period 1976-1995 in two large agricultural watersheds that feed Lake Erie, those of the Maumee and Sandusky Rivers. The dominant variable was stream discharge; after curvefits to remove its influence, the residual loads were tested via stepwise linear regression to reveal the most significant explanatory variables. Loads of nitrate, total suspended solids, and total phosphorus tended to decrease when previous months were wet, except in the summer, and to decrease when snow cover was extensive. It is speculated that stores of nitrate in the soil were lost during wet periods through increased crop uptake and/or leaching. Nitrogen fertilizer application in the Maumee watershed decreased following dry periods, but not enough to decrease stream loads. Soluble reactive phosphorus loads were negatively correlated to conservation tillage and reserves, and positively correlated to fertilizer and manure sources. Results for total phosphorus were similar to those for total suspended solids, on which most transported phosphorus is adsorbed. PMID:11837447

  13. Theme--Achieving 2020. Goal 3: All Students Are Conversationally Literate in Agriculture, Food, Fiber, and Natural Resource Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trexler, Cary, Ed.

    2000-01-01

    Nine theme articles focus on the need for students to be conversationally literate about agriculture, food, fiber, and natural resources systems. Discusses the definition of conversational literacy, the human and institutional resources needed, and exemplary models for promoting literacy. (JOW)

  14. Importance of impacts scenarios for the adaptation of agriculture to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zullo, J.; Macedo, C.; Pinto, H. S.; Assad, E. D.; Koga Vicente, A.

    2012-12-01

    The great possibility that the climate is already changing, and the most drastic way possible, increases the challenge of agricultural engineering, especially in environmentally vulnerable areas and in regions where agriculture has a high economic and social importance. Knowledge of potential impacts that may be caused by changes in water and thermal regimes in coming decades is increasingly strategic, as they allow the development of techniques to adapt agriculture to climate change and therefore minimizes the risk of undesirable impacts, for example, in food and nutritional security. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to describe a way to generate impacts scenarios caused by anomalies of precipitation and temperature in the definition of climate risk zoning of an agricultural crop very important in the tropics, such as the sugar cane, especially in central-southern Brazil, which is one of its main world producers. A key point here is the choice of the climate model to be used, considering that 23 different models were used in the fourth IPCC report published in 2007. The number and range of available models requires the definition of criteria for choosing the most suitable for the preparation of the impacts scenarios. One way proposed and used in this work is based on the definition of two groups of models according to 27 technical attributes of them. The clustering of 23 models in two groups, with a model representing each group (UKMO_HadCM3 and MIROC3.2_medres), assists the generation and comparison of impacts scenarios, making them more representative and useful. Another important aspect in the generation of impacts scenarios is the estimate of the relative importance of the anomalies of precipitation and temperature, which are the most commonly used. To assess the relative importance of the anomalies are generated scenarios considering an anomaly at a time and both together. The impacts scenarios for a high emission of greenhouse gases (A2), from 2010

  15. Meeting the radiative forcing targets of the representative concentration pathways in a world with agricultural climate impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kyle, Page; Müller, Christoph; Calvin, Katherine; Thomson, Allison

    2014-02-01

    This study assesses how climate impacts on agriculture may change the evolution of the agricultural and energy systems in meeting the end-of-century radiative forcing targets of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We build on the recently completed Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) exercise that has produced global gridded estimates of future crop yields for major agricultural crops using climate model projections of the RCPs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study we use the bias-corrected outputs of the HadGEM2-ES climate model as inputs to the LPJmL crop growth model, and the outputs of LPJmL to modify inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model. Our results indicate that agricultural climate impacts generally lead to an increase in global cropland, as compared with corresponding emissions scenarios that do not consider climate impacts on agricultural productivity. This is driven mostly by negative impacts on wheat, rice, other grains, and oil crops. Still, including agricultural climate impacts does not significantly increase the costs or change the technological strategies of global, whole-system emissions mitigation. In fact, to meet the most aggressive climate change mitigation target (2.6 W/m2 in 2100), the net mitigation costs are slightly lower when agricultural climate impacts are considered. Key contributing factors to these results are (a) low levels of climate change in the low-forcing scenarios, (b) adaptation to climate impacts simulated in GCAM through inter-regional shifting in the production of agricultural goods, and (c) positive average climate impacts on bioenergy crop yields.

  16. Meeting the Radiative Forcing Targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways in a World with Agricultural Climate Impacts

    SciTech Connect

    Kyle, G. Page; Mueller, C.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-02-28

    This study assesses how climate impacts on agriculture may change the evolution of the agricultural and energy systems in meeting the end-of-century radiative forcing targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We build on the recently completed ISI-MIP exercise that has produced global gridded estimates of future crop yields for major agricultural crops using climate model projections of the RCPs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study we use the bias-corrected outputs of the HadGEM2-ES climate model as inputs to the LPJmL crop growth model, and the outputs of LPJmL to modify inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model. Our results indicate that agricultural climate impacts generally lead to an increase in global cropland, as compared with corresponding emissions scenarios that do not consider climate impacts on agricultural productivity. This is driven mostly by negative impacts on wheat, rice, other grains, and oil crops. Still, including agricultural climate impacts does not significantly increase the costs or change the technological strategies of global, whole-system emissions mitigation. In fact, to meet the most aggressive climate change mitigation target (2.6 W/m2 in 2100), the net mitigation costs are slightly lower when agricultural climate impacts are considered. Key contributing factors to these results are (a) low levels of climate change in the low-forcing scenarios, (b) adaptation to climate impacts, simulated in GCAM through inter-regional shifting in the production of agricultural goods, and (c) positive average climate impacts on bioenergy crop yields.

  17. Climate change effects on soil organic carbon changes in agricultural lands of Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Álvaro-Fuentes, J.; Easter, M.; Arrúe, J. L.; Cantero-Martínez, C.; Paustian, K.

    2012-04-01

    Climate is a key factor to explain changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) at regional scales. Experimental data have showed that spatial and temporal changes in soil temperature and moisture modify microbial activity and thus SOC decomposition. Furthermore, precipitation amount and distribution have a main impact on crop growth and residue production. According to predictions based on atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) for the next decades in the Mediterranean region, air temperature will significantly increase and precipitation decrease with a significant impact on SOC turnover. However, in agricultural systems, the study of the impacts of climate on SOC dynamics is a complex task since climate effects will be determined by both soil characteristics and management practices. The establishment of soil monitoring networks within a specific region is a recommended approach to study the interactive effects of climate, management and soil on SOC changes. However, in large areas, the establishment and maintenance of these networks can imply significant cost and time. A lower cost and time consuming approach can be the use of soil organic matter (SOM) models. The use of process based SOM models linked to spatial data through geographical information systems (GIS) permits to integrate the spatial variability of the parameters that control SOM dynamics. This approach can be appropriate for Spanish conditions where the complex orography results in a large range of local climates. Moreover, the large agricultural heterogeneity in terms of management systems could have a noteworthy impact on the effects of climate on SOC turnover in Spanish agroecosystems. Thus, in this study we used the Century model to analyse the impact of climate on SOC changes in a representative area of 40498 km2 located in northeast Spain. The spatial distribution of the different land use categories and their change over time was obtained from the European Corine database. Soil

  18. Climate change impact on water resources - Example of an anthropized basin (Llobregat, Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Versini, P.-A.; Pouget, L.; Mc Ennis, S.; Guiu Carrio, R.; Sempere-Torres, D.; Escaler, I.

    2012-04-01

    The impact of climate change is one of the central topics of study by water agencies and companies. Indeed, the forecasted increase of atmospheric temperature may change the amount, frequency and intensity of precipitation and affect the hydrological cycle: runoff, infiltration, aquifer recharge, etc… Moreover, global change combining climate change but also land use and water demand changes, may cause very important impacts on water availability and quality. Global change scenarios in Spain describe a general trend towards increased temperature and water demand, and reduced precipitation as a result of its geographical situation and socio-economic characteristics. The European project WATER CHANGE (included in the LIFE + Environment Policy and Governance program) aims to develop a modeling system to assess the Global Change impacts, and their associated uncertainties, on water availability for water supply and water use. Its objective is to help river basin agencies and water companies in their long term planning and in the definition of adaptation measures. This work presents the results obtained by applying the modelling system to the Llobregat river basin (Spain). This is an anthropized catchment of about 5000 km2, where water resources are used for different purposes, such as drinking water production, agriculture irrigation, industry and hydroelectric energy production. Based on future global change scenarios, the water resources system has been assessed in terms of water deficit and supply. A cost-benefit analysis has also been conducted in order to evaluate every realistic measure that could optimize and improve the system.

  19. Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M.; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

    2016-09-01

    Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

  20. Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

    2016-09-01

    Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity. PMID:27372660

  1. Effects of climate and land use changes on groundwater resources in coastal aquifers.

    PubMed

    Priyantha Ranjan, S; Kazama, So; Sawamoto, Masaki

    2006-07-01

    To estimate the freshwater loss in coastal aquifers due to salinisation, a numerical model based on the sharp interface assumption has been introduced. The developed methodology will be useful in areas where limited hydrological data are available. This model will elaborate on the changes in fresh groundwater loss with respect to climate change, land use pattern and hydrologic soil condition. The aridity index has been introduced to represent the variations in precipitation and temperature. The interesting finding is that the deforestation leads to increase groundwater recharge in arid areas, because deforestation leads to reduce evapotranspiration even though it favors runoff. The combined climate and land use scenarios show that when the aridity index is less than 60, the agricultural lands give higher groundwater recharge than other land use patterns for all hydrologic soil conditions. The calculated recharge was then used to estimate the freshwater-saltwater interface and percentage of freshwater loss due to salinity intrusion. We found that in arid areas, the fresh groundwater loss increases as the percentage of forest cover increases. The combined effects of deforestation and aridity index on fresh groundwater loss show that deforestation causes an increase in the recharge and existing fresh groundwater resource in areas having low precipitation and high temperature (arid climates). PMID:16305816

  2. Response of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change in France: Assessment of Uncertainties and Trend Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laanaia, N.; Carrer, D.

    2014-12-01

    In the framework of the French research project ORACLE we examine the impact of climate change on agriculture and forests in France for two time horizons (2020-2050 and 2070-2100) in reference to the 1970-2000 period. The biophysical variables (leaf area index, equilibrium forest biomass, leaf onset and offset, ...) are produced by ISBA-A-gs forced by the atmospheric variables produced by differents climat models and scenarios. Their trends will be analyzed. The impact of uncertainties at various levels through multi-model and multi-scenario approaches will be assessed

  3. Agriculture and Community Development Interface. Joint Meeting of the Southern Region State Leaders for Agriculture and Natural Resources and Community Resource Development Proceedings (October 8-11, 1989, Williamsburg, Virginia).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Warner, Paul D., Ed.; Campbell, Raymond, Ed.

    This document is a summary of remarks presented at a joint meeting of Agriculture and Natural Resources and Community Resource Development state leaders in 1989. The focus of the meeting was economic viability, rural extension and education, water quality, waste management, biotechnology, low-input sustainable agriculture (LISA), and rural…

  4. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface- and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leng, G.; Huang, M.; Tang, Q.; Leung, L. R.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, we investigate the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources by performing simulations of the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical climate simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping were calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects on SW/GW: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions of SW, suggesting that intensive irrigation water use has the potential to further exacerbate low-flow conditions, increasing vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand in the regions equipped for irrigation across the world. The increase in demand combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply will cause more severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although the effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for

  5. Climate change and agricultural risk management: the role of the family-farm characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quaranta, G.; Salvia, R.

    2009-04-01

    During recent years, water-related anomalies (drought, water scarcity, flood) have become a common occurrence in most areas and especially in the arid and semiarid regions of Mediterranean areas. There are evidences of increasing inter-annual variability, as increasing deviation from the long-term mean. This could be the main reason for the increasing incidence of drought, rather than any decline in long-term rainfall, also if a decrease of total amount of water is expected by the IPCC scenarios. Another reason for increasing drought and water scarcity conditions is growing demand for water needed by different productive sectors. These anomalies greatly increase the uncertainties of the agricultural sector affecting performance and management and leading to substantial augment in agricultural risk and destabilization of farm incomes. Agricultural adaptation to drought and climate change at the farm level as well as changes in activity level strongly depend on the technological potential (different varieties of crops, irrigation technologies); soil, water, and biological response; and the capability of farmers to detect changes and undertake any necessary actions as result of perception of the problem and capacity/willingness to react. Farm characteristics (size, technological level and other characteristics) and the social economic features of the family running those farms (number of components, age, education level, etc) act as important variables influencing, at farm level, the capacity and rate of adaptation/mitigation options implementation. The ability or inability to avoid/react from a risk could be interpreted as a social resilience of an area, deriving mainly from its socio-demographic features. The shift from a paradigm mainly focuses upon the physical agents in the natural or human-modified environment, which cause a threat to society, to a new approach where the social, economical and political conditions are overcoming and gaining importance in the

  6. Climate change mitigation in the agricultural sector- an analysis of marginal abatement costs of climate mitigation in global paddy rice agriculture based on DNDC simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, C.; Li, J.; Beach, R.; Salas, W.; Ingraham, P.; Ragnauth, S.

    2012-12-01

    Authors: Jia Li1, Robert H. Beach2, Changsheng Li3, William Salas4, Pete Ingraham5, Shaun Ragnauth1 INSTITUTIONS (ALL): 1. Climate Change Division, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, United States. 2. RTI International, Durham, NC, United States. 3. ESRC, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, United States. 4. Applied Geosolutions, LLC, Newmarket, NH, United States. Global agriculture sector faces the dual challenge of climate change mitigation and providing food security for a growing population. In a new study, the U.S. EPA has developed an analysis of mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases for the global agriculture sector. We estimate global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from paddy rice cultivation and rice yields under baseline management conditions as well as for alternative mitigation options. These biophysical effects are combined with data on input use and costs to estimate marginal abatement cost curves and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of mitigation options for global rice cropping systems. DNDC, a process-based crop model, is used to simulate crop yields, methane and nitrous oxide emissions, as well as soil carbon sequestration of the various rice cropping systems (irrigated and rainfed, and single, double, triple and mixed rotations) under local climatic and soil conditions at a 0.5 degree resolution at the global scale. We evaluate the impacts of various management alternatives (e.g., flooding methods, fertilizer applications, and crop residue management) on crop yields and GHG emissions and report the spatial and temporal distributions of the outcomes. The analysis provides important insights on the potential for closing the production efficiency gaps and the trade-offs and synergies between GHG mitigation and food security in different parts of the world.

  7. Climate impacts on agricultural biomass production in the CORDEX.be project context

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gobin, Anne; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Termonia, Piet; Willems, Patrick; Van Lipzig, Nicole; Marbaix, Philippe; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal; Fettweis, Xavier; De Ridder, Koen; Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Luyten, Patrick; Pottiaux, Eric

    2016-04-01

    The most important coordinated international effort to translate the IPCC-AR5 outcomes to regional climate modelling is the so-called "COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment" (CORDEX, http://wcrp-cordex.ipsl.jussieu.fr/). CORDEX.be is a national initiative that aims at combining the Belgian climate and impact modelling research into a single network. The climate network structure is naturally imposed by the top-down data flow, from the four participating upper-air Regional Climate Modelling groups towards seven Local Impact Models (LIMs). In addition to the production of regional climate projections following the CORDEX guidelines, very high-resolution results are provided at convection-permitting resolutions of about 4 km across Belgium. These results are coupled to seven local-impact models with severity indices as output. A multi-model approach is taken that allows uncertainty estimation, a crucial aspect of climate projections for policy-making purposes. The down-scaled scenarios at 4 km resolution allow for impact assessment in different Belgian agro-ecological zones. Climate impacts on arable agriculture are quantified using REGCROP which is a regional dynamic agri-meteorological model geared towards modelling climate impact on biomass production of arable crops (Gobin, 2010, 2012). Results from previous work show that heat stress and water shortages lead to reduced crop growth, whereas increased CO2-concentrations and a prolonged growing season have a positive effect on crop yields. The interaction between these effects depend on the crop type and the field conditions. Root crops such as potato will experience increased drought stress particularly when the probability rises that sensitive crop stages coincide with dry spells. This may be aggravated when wet springs cause water logging in the field and delay planting dates. Despite lower summer precipitation projections for future climate in Belgium, winter cereal yield reductions due to drought

  8. Global Squeeze: Assessing Climate-Critical Resource Constraints for Coastal Climate Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chase, N. T.; Becker, A.; Schwegler, B.; Fischer, M.

    2014-12-01

    The projected impacts of climate change in the coastal zone will require local planning and local resources to adapt to increasing risks of social, environmental, and economic consequences from extreme events. This means that, for the first time in human history, aggregated local demands could outpace global supply of certain "climate-critical resources." For example, construction materials such as sand and gravel, steel, and cement may be needed to fortify many coastal locations at roughly the same point in time if decision makers begin to construct new storm barriers or elevate coastal lands. Where might adaptation bottlenecks occur? Can the world produce enough cement to armour the world's seaports as flood risks increase due to sea-level rise and more intense storms? Just how many coastal engineers would multiple such projects require? Understanding such global implications of adaptation requires global datasets—such as bathymetry, coastal topography, local sea-level rise and storm surge projections, and construction resource production capacity—that are currently unavailable at a resolution appropriate for a global-scale analysis. Our research group has identified numerous gaps in available data necessary to make such estimates on both the supply and demand sides of this equation. This presentation examines the emerging need and current availability of these types of datasets and argues for new coordinated efforts to develop and share such data.

  9. Advancing water resource management in agricultural, rural, and urbanizing watersheds: Enhancing University involvement

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In this research editorial we make four points relative to solving water resource issues: (1) they are complex problems and difficult to solve, (2) some progress has been made on solving these issues, (3) external non-stationary drivers such as land use changes, climate change and variability, and s...

  10. Integrated management of water resources demand and supply in irrigated agriculture from plot to regional scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schütze, Niels; Wagner, Michael

    2016-05-01

    Growing water scarcity in agriculture is an increasing problem in future in many regions of the world. Recent trends of weather extremes in Saxony, Germany also enhance drought risks for agricultural production. In addition, signals of longer and more intense drought conditions during the vegetation period can be found in future regional climate scenarios for Saxony. However, those climate predictions are associated with high uncertainty and therefore, e.g. stochastic methods are required to analyze the impact of changing climate patterns on future crop water requirements and water availability. For assessing irrigation as a measure to increase agricultural water security a generalized stochastic approach for a spatial distributed estimation of future irrigation water demand is proposed, which ensures safe yields and a high water productivity at the same time. The developed concept of stochastic crop water production functions (SCWPF) can serve as a central decision support tool for both, (i) a cost benefit analysis of farm irrigation modernization on a local scale and (ii) a regional water demand management using a multi-scale approach for modeling and implementation. The new approach is applied using the example of a case study in Saxony, which is dealing with the sustainable management of future irrigation water demands and its implementation.

  11. Assessing the Impact of Population Growth, Climate Change, and Land Use Change on Water Resources in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, N.; Cherkauer, K. A.

    2014-12-01

    India is poised to become the most populous country in the world by 2019 and reach a population of over 2 billion by 2050 based on current growth rates. It is also a region which will be under severe socio-economic and environmental stress if mitigation efforts are not adapted. In the past 10 years the population of India has grown by an average rate of 17 million people per year. In addition to unprecedented population growth, rapid urbanization and industrialization are straining the overburdened environmental system. This rapid growth in population, urbanization and industrialized will result in increased demand for food, requiring expansion of agricultural resources. Since total agricultural land in India has been relatively constant over the past 10 years the demand for additional food has to be partly met by enhanced production on existing land. Arable land in India has declined by around 3% according to FAOSTAT while the total agricultural area under irrigation has increased by about 9% thus further straining its water resources. In addition projections for future climate indicate that India is one of the regions where water resources are expected to be negatively impacted. Total agriculture water withdrawal in India increased by approximately 18 % from 2000-2010 while the total per capita water withdrawal increased by over 9% from 2000-2010. Total freshwater withdrawal as percentage of renewable water resources was around 40% in 2010. In addition, recent mandates of biofuel policies in India are also expected to impact its water resources. The combined impact of these various factors on future water availability in India could be one of the most severe globally due its unprecedented increase in population, food production and industrialization. In this study we assess the impact of land use and climate change on water resources over southern India in the face of a growing population and interest in development of national biofuel supplies. We use

  12. Agricultural irrigation demand under present and future climate scenarios in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Axel

    2008-02-01

    The anticipated change of climatic conditions within the next decades is thought to have far reaching consequences for agricultural cropping systems. The success of crop production in China, the world's most populous country, will also have effects on the global food supply. More than 30% of the cropping area in China is irrigated producing the major part of the agricultural production. To model the effects of climate change on irrigation requirements for crop production in China a high-resolution (0.25°, monthly time series for temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) gridded climate data set that specifically allows for the effects of topography on climate was integrated with digital soil data in a GIS. Observed long-term trends of monthly means as well as trends of interannual variations were combined for climate scenarios for the year 2030 with average conditions as well as 'best case' and 'worst case' scenarios. Regional cropping calendars with allowance for multiple cropping systems and the adaptation of the begin and length of the growing season to climatic variations were incorporated in the FAO water balance model to calculate irrigation amounts to obtain maximum yields for the period 1951-1990 and the climate scenarios. During the period 1951-1990 irrigation demand displayed a considerable variation both in temporal and spatial respects. Future scenarios indicate a varied pattern of generally increasing irrigation demand and an enlargement of the subtropical cropping zone rather than a general northward drift of all zones as predicted by GCM models. The effects of interannual variability appear to have likely more impact on future cropping conditions than the anticipated poleward migration of cropping zones.

  13. Some Advances in Downscaling Probabilistic Climate Forecasts for Agricultural Decision Support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, E.; Ines, A.

    2015-12-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts, commonly provided in tercile-probabilities format (below-, near- and above-normal), need to be translated into more meaningful information for decision support of practitioners in agriculture. In this paper, we will present two new novel approaches to temporally downscale probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts: one non-parametric and another parametric method. First, the non-parametric downscaling approach called FResampler1 uses the concept of 'conditional block sampling' of weather data to create daily weather realizations of a tercile-based seasonal climate forecasts. FResampler1 randomly draws time series of daily weather parameters (e.g., rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and solar radiation) from historical records, for the season of interest from years that belong to a certain rainfall tercile category (e.g., being below-, near- and above-normal). In this way, FResampler1 preserves the covariance between rainfall and other weather parameters as if conditionally sampling maximum and minimum temperature and solar radiation if that day is wet or dry. The second approach called predictWTD is a parametric method based on a conditional stochastic weather generator. The tercile-based seasonal climate forecast is converted into a theoretical forecast cumulative probability curve. Then the deviates for each percentile is converted into rainfall amount or frequency or intensity to downscale the 'full' distribution of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts. Those seasonal deviates are then disaggregated on a monthly basis and used to constrain the downscaling of forecast realizations at different percentile values of the theoretical forecast curve. As well as the theoretical basis of the approaches we will discuss sensitivity analysis (length of data and size of samples) of them. In addition their potential applications for managing climate-related risks in agriculture will be shown through a couple of case studies based on

  14. Water demand and supply co-adaptation to mitigate climate change impacts in agricultural water management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giuliani, Matteo; Mainardi, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Gandolfi, Claudio

    2013-04-01

    Agriculture is the main land use in the world and represents also the sector characterised by the highest water demand. To meet projected growth in human population and per-capita food demand, agricultural production will have to significantly increase in the next decades. Moreover, water availability is nowadays a limiting factor for agricultural production, and is expected to decrease over the next century due to climate change impacts. To effectively face a changing climate, agricultural systems have therefore to adapt their strategies (e.g., changing crops, shifting sowing and harvesting dates, adopting high efficiency irrigation techniques). Yet, farmer adaptation is only one part of the equation because changes in water supply management strategies, as a response to climate change, might impact on farmers' decisions as well. Despite the strong connections between water demand and supply, being the former dependent on agricultural practices, which are affected by the water available that depends on the water supply strategies designed according to a forecasted demand, an analysis of their reciprocal feedbacks is still missing. Most of the recent studies has indeed considered the two problems separately, either analysing the impact of climate change on farmers' decisions for a given water supply scenario or optimising water supply for different water demand scenarios. In this work, we explicitly connect the two systems (demand and supply) by activating an information loop between farmers and water managers, to integrate the two problems and study the co-evolution and co-adaptation of water demand and water supply systems under climate change. The proposed approach is tested on a real-world case study, namely the Lake Como serving the Muzza-Bassa Lodigiana irrigation district (Italy). In particular, given an expectation of water availability, the farmers are able to solve a yearly planning problem to decide the most profitable crop to plant. Knowing the farmers

  15. A Decision Support System for Climate Change Adaptation in Rainfed Sectors of Agriculture for Central Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mátyás, Csaba; Berki, Imre; Drüszler, Áron; Eredics, Attila; Gálos, Borbála; Illés, Gábor; Móricz, Norbert; Rasztovits, Ervin; Czimber, Kornél

    2013-04-01

    • Background and aims: Rainfed sectors of agriculture such as nature-close forestry, non-irrigated agriculture and animal husbandry on nature-close pastures are threatened by projected climate change especially in low-elevation regions in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is the limiting factor of production and ecosystem stability. Therefore the importance of complex, long term management planning and of land use optimization is increasing. The aim of the Decision Support System under development is to raise awareness and initiate preparation for frequency increase of extreme events, disasters and economic losses in the mentioned sectors. • Services provided: The Decision Support System provides GIS-supported information about the most important regional and local risks and mitigation options regarding climate change impacts, projected for reference periods until 2100 (e.g. land cover/use and expectable changes, potential production, water and carbon cycle, biodiversity and other ecosystem services, potential pests and diseases, tolerance limits etc.). The projections are referring first of all on biological production (natural produce), but the System includes also social and economic consequences. • Methods: In the raster based system, the latest image processing technology is used. We apply fuzzy membership functions, Support Vector Machine and Maximum Likelihood classifier. The System is developed in the first step for a reference area in SW Hungary (Zala county). • Novelty: The coherent, fine-scale regional system integrates the basic information about present and projected climates, extremes, hydrology and soil conditions and expected production potential for three sectors of agriculture as options for land use and conservation. • Funding: The development of the Decision Support System "Agrárklíma" is supported by TÁMOP-4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV and 4.2.2.B-10/1-2010-0018 "Talentum" joint EU-national research projects. Keywords: climate change

  16. Data-Intensive Drought Monitoring, Forecasting, and Outlooks for Climate-Resilient Water Management in Western Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryu, J.

    2014-12-01

    Drought increasingly threatens the sustainability of regional water resources in many states in the United States. Drought has large economic impacts and significant environmental and societal effects. Although much research on drought at national, regional, and local scales has been conducted to mitigate drought impacts, still drought claims economic losses estimated at about $8.5 billion per year. One possible reason for such huge losses may be a lack of clear understanding of the characteristics of drought at local scales that the end user can relate to the particular water management constraints of their basin. Sustainable water management alternatives are explored and discussed to mitigate climate-induced drought impacts on western agriculture. Current drought monitoring, forecasting, and outlooks efforts are demonstrated along with visualization and research survey. Future direction for Big Drought research is also highlighted.

  17. Snowpack Estimates Improve Water Resources Climate-Change Adaptation Strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lestak, L.; Molotch, N. P.; Guan, B.; Granger, S. L.; Nemeth, S.; Rizzardo, D.; Gehrke, F.; Franz, K. J.; Karsten, L. R.; Margulis, S. A.; Case, K.; Anderson, M.; Painter, T. H.; Dozier, J.

    2010-12-01

    Observed climate trends over the past 50 years indicate a reduction in snowpack water storage across the Western U.S. As the primary water source for the region, the loss in snowpack water storage presents significant challenges for managing water deliveries to meet agricultural, municipal, and hydropower demands. Improved snowpack information via remote sensing shows promise for improving seasonal water supply forecasts and for informing decadal scale infrastructure planning. An ongoing project in the California Sierra Nevada and examples from the Rocky Mountains indicate the tractability of estimating snowpack water storage on daily time steps using a distributed snowpack reconstruction model. Fractional snow covered area (FSCA) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data were used with modeled snowmelt from the snowpack model to estimate snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Sierra Nevada (64,515 km2). Spatially distributed daily SWE estimates were calculated for 10 years, 2000-2009, with detailed analysis for two anamolous years, 2006, a wet year and 2009, an over-forecasted year. Sierra-wide mean SWE was 0.8 cm for 01 April 2006 versus 0.4 cm for 01 April 2009, comparing favorably with known outflow. Modeled SWE was compared to in-situ (observed) SWE for 01 April 2006 for the Feather (northern Sierra, lower-elevation) and Merced (central Sierra, higher-elevation) basins, with mean modeled SWE 80% of observed SWE. Integration of spatial SWE estimates into forecasting operations will allow for better visualization and analysis of high-altitude late-season snow missed by in-situ snow sensors and inter-annual anomalies associated with extreme precipitation events/atmospheric rivers. Collaborations with state and local entities establish protocols on how to meet current and future information needs and improve climate-change adaptation strategies.

  18. Global bioenergy potentials from agricultural land in 2050: Sensitivity to climate change, diets and yields

    PubMed Central

    Haberl, Helmut; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Krausmann, Fridolin; Bondeau, Alberte; Lauk, Christian; Müller, Christoph; Plutzar, Christoph; Steinberger, Julia K.

    2011-01-01

    There is a growing recognition that the interrelations between agriculture, food, bioenergy, and climate change have to be better understood in order to derive more realistic estimates of future bioenergy potentials. This article estimates global bioenergy potentials in the year 2050, following a “food first” approach. It presents integrated food, livestock, agriculture, and bioenergy scenarios for the year 2050 based on a consistent representation of FAO projections of future agricultural development in a global biomass balance model. The model discerns 11 regions, 10 crop aggregates, 2 livestock aggregates, and 10 food aggregates. It incorporates detailed accounts of land use, global net primary production (NPP) and its human appropriation as well as socioeconomic biomass flow balances for the year 2000 that are modified according to a set of scenario assumptions to derive the biomass potential for 2050. We calculate the amount of biomass required to feed humans and livestock, considering losses between biomass supply and provision of final products. Based on this biomass balance as well as on global land-use data, we evaluate the potential to grow bioenergy crops and estimate the residue potentials from cropland (forestry is outside the scope of this study). We assess the sensitivity of the biomass potential to assumptions on diets, agricultural yields, cropland expansion and climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL to evaluate possible impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, and elevated CO2 on agricultural yields. We find that the gross (primary) bioenergy potential ranges from 64 to 161 EJ y−1, depending on climate impact, yields and diet, while the dependency on cropland expansion is weak. We conclude that food requirements for a growing world population, in particular feed required for livestock, strongly influence bioenergy potentials, and that integrated approaches are needed to optimize food and bioenergy supply

  19. Agriculture and resource availability in a changing world: The role of irrigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sauer, Timm; HavlíK, Petr; Schneider, Uwe A.; Schmid, Erwin; Kindermann, Georg; Obersteiner, Michael

    2010-06-01

    Fertile land and freshwater constitute two of the most fundamental resources for food production. These resources are affected by environmental, political, economic, and technical developments. Regional impacts may transmit to the world through increased trade. With a global forest and agricultural sector model, we quantify the impacts of increased demand for food due to population growth and economic development on potential land and water use until 2030. In particular, we investigate producer adaptation regarding crop and irrigation choice, agricultural market adjustments, and changes in the values of land and water. In the context of resource sustainability and food security, this study accounts for the spatial and operational heterogeneity of irrigation management to globally assess agricultural land and water use. Agricultural responses to population and economic growth include considerable increases in irrigated area and water use but reductions in the average water intensity. Different irrigation systems are preferred under different exogenous biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. Negligence of these adaptations would bias the burden of development on land and water scarcity. Without technical progress, substantial price adjustments for land, water, and food would be required to equilibrate supply and demand.

  20. UNDERGRADUATE EDUCATION IN THE BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES FOR STUDENTS IN AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES, PROCEEDINGS OF A CONFERENCE.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Academy of Sciences - National Research Council, Washington, DC.

    REPORTED ARE THE PROCEEDINGS OF A 1966 CONFERENCE WHICH DEALT WITH UNDERGRADUATE EDUCATIONAL NEEDS FOR STUDENTS IN AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES. THE 167 EDUCATORS (MOSTLY DEANS AND DIRECTORS OF RESIDENT INSTRUCTION) WHO PARTICIPATED IN THE CONFERENCE REPRESENTED AGRICULTURE, RENEWABLE NATURAL RESOURCES, THE BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, AND…

  1. Agriculture and natural resources in a changing world - the role of irrigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sauer, T.; Havlík, P.; Schneider, U. A.; Kindermann, G.; Obersteiner, M.

    2009-04-01

    Fertile land and fresh water constitute two of the most fundamental resources for food production. These resources are affected by environmental, political, economic, and technical developments. Regional impacts may transmit to the world through increased trade. With a global forest and agricultural sector model, we quantify the impacts of increased demand for food due to population growth and economic development on potential land and water use. In particular, we investigate producer adaptation regarding crop and irrigation choice, agricultural market adjustments, and changes in the values of land and water. Against the background of resource sustainability and food security topics, this study integrates the spatial and operational heterogeneity of irrigation management into a global land use model. It represents a first large scale assessment of agricultural water use under explicit consideration of alternative irrigation options in their particular biophysical, economic, and technical context, accounting for international trade, motivation-based farming, and quantified aggregated impacts on land scarcity, water scarcity, and food supply. The inclusion of technical and economic aspects of irrigation choice into an integrated land use modeling framework provides new insights into the interdisciplinary trade-offs between determinants of global land use change. Agricultural responses to population and economic growth include considerable increases in irrigated area and agricultural water use, but reductions in the average water intensity. Different irrigation systems are preferred under different exogenous biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. Negligence of these adaptations would bias the burden of development on land and water scarcity. Without technical progress in agriculture, predicted population and income levels for 2030 would require substantial price adjustments for land, water, and food to equilibrate supply and demand.

  2. Modeling groundwater quality in an arid agricultural environment in the face of an uncertain climate: the case of Mewat District, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weber, M. C.; Ward, A. S.; Muste, M.

    2014-12-01

    The salinization of groundwater resources is a widespread problem in arid agricultural environments. In Mewat District (Haryana, India), groundwater salinity has rendered much of the accessible supply unfit for human consumption or agriculture. Historically, this closed basin retained fresh pockets of water at the foothills of the Aravalli Hills, where monsoonal precipitation runoff from the mountains was recharged through infiltration or facilitated by man-made structures. To date, an increasing number of pumps supply the region with fresh water for consumption and agriculture leading to shrinking the freshwater zone at an accelerated pace. The potential for increased human consumption corroborated with the effects of climate change bring uncertainty about the future of water security for the Mewat communities, most of them critically bound to the existence of local water. This study addresses the sustainability of the freshwater supply under a range of land interventions and climate scenarios, using a 2-D groundwater flow and transport model. Our results quantify potential futures for this arid, groundwater-dependent location, using numerical groundwater modeling to quantify interactions between human water use, infrastructure, and climate. Outcomes of this modeling study will inform an NGO active in the area on sustainable management of groundwater resources.

  3. Coupled planning of water resources and agricultural landuse based on an inexact-stochastic programming model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Cong; Huang, Guohe; Tan, Qian; Cai, Yanpeng

    2014-03-01

    Water resources are fundamental for support of regional development. Effective planning can facilitate sustainable management of water resources to balance socioeconomic development and water conservation. In this research, coupled planning of water resources and agricultural land use was undertaken through the development of an inexact-stochastic programming approach. Such an inexact modeling approach was the integration of interval linear programming and chance-constraint programming methods. It was employed to successfully tackle uncertainty in the form of interval numbers and probabilistic distributions existing in water resource systems. Then it was applied to a typical regional water resource system for demonstrating its applicability and validity through generating efficient system solutions. Based on the process of modeling formulation and result analysis, the developed model could be used for helping identify optimal water resource utilization patterns and the corresponding agricultural land-use schemes in three sub-regions. Furthermore, a number of decision alternatives were generated under multiple water-supply conditions, which could help decision makers identify desired management policies.

  4. A decomposition approach for optimal management of groundwater resources and irrigated agriculture in arid coastal regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grundmann, Jens; Schütze, Niels; Heck, Vera

    2013-04-01

    For ensuring an optimal sustainable water resources management in arid coastal environments, we develop a new simulation based integrated water management system. It aims at achieving best possible solutions for groundwater withdrawals for agricultural and municipal water use including saline water management together with a substantial increase of the water use efficiency in irrigated agriculture. To achieve a robust and fast operation of the management system, it unites process modelling with artificial intelligence tools and evolutionary optimisation techniques for managing both, water quality and water quantity of a strongly coupled groundwater-agriculture system. However, such systems are characterized by a large number of decision variables if abstraction schemes, cropping patterns and cultivated acreages are optimised simultaneously for multiple years. Therefore, we apply the principle of decomposition to separate the original large optimisation problem into smaller, independent optimisation problems which finally allow for a faster and more reliable solution. At first, within an inner optimisation loop, cropping patterns and cultivated acreages are optimised to achieve a most profitable agricultural production for a given amount of water. Thereby, the behaviour of farms is described by crop-water-production functions which can be derived analytically. Secondly, within an outer optimisation loop, a simulation based optimisation is performed to find optimal groundwater abstraction pattern by coupling an evolutionary optimisation algorithm with an artificial neural network for modelling the aquifer response, inclusive the seawater interface. We demonstrate the decomposition approach by an exemplary application of the south Batinah region in the Sultanate of Oman which is affected by saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer system due to excessive groundwater withdrawal for irrigated agriculture. We show the effectiveness of our methodology for the evaluation

  5. Multi-objective optimisation for a sustainable groundwater resources and agricultural management in arid coastal regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grundmann, Jens; Heck, Vera; Schütze, Niels

    2014-05-01

    The scarcity of freshwater in coastal arid regions, coupled with an ongoing population growth, makes optimal water management crucial. Excessive use of groundwater for irrigation in agriculture puts those regions at risk of saltwater intrusion which limits the agricultural opportunities. To solve these problems, a simulation based integrated water management system has been developed to ensure a long-term profitable and sustainable water resources and agricultural management. Within the system, a groundwater module, assessing the water resources availability, and an agricultural module, controlling irrigation and cultivation, are connected in an optimisation module, optimising the water management. To reduce the computational complexity of the optimisation procedure, surrogate models are applied which describe the behaviour of the groundwater and agriculture process models regarding the most relevant variables for management. Furthermore, the optimisation problem is decomposed into a two-step optimisation. An analytical inner optimisation estimates irrigation practices and crop patterns, while an outer evolutionary optimisation algorithm determines the overall water abstraction scenarios, based on results of the inner optimisation. By these two features, consequent surrogate model application and decomposition of optimisation, the computational complexity of the optimisation problem is reduced considerably, allowing the consideration of specific regional and temporal aspects in the management tool. The methodology is demonstrated by an exemplary application of the south Batinah region in the Sultanate of Oman which is affected by saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer system due to excessive groundwater withdrawal for irrigated agriculture. Due to contradicting objectives like profit-oriented agriculture vs. aquifer sustainability, multi-objective optimisation is performed. Optimisation runs for different simulation periods and management strategies show that a

  6. Climate change and water resources in northern Mongolia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menzel, Lucas; Törnros, Tobias; Marberg, Ines

    2014-05-01

    Mongolia is facing a large number of water-related problems, such as adverse natural conditions, increasing water withdrawals, scarce environmental information and a lack of structures which control the appropriate distribution and protection of water. Since 2010, we conduct a monitoring programme in northern Mongolia which aims at better understanding the climatic characteristics, the freshwater generating processes as well as the impact of environmental change on the water resources in a semi-arid environment. Focus is on the meso-scaled Kharaa catchment (14,500 km²) north of Ulaanbaatar which includes the transition belt between the extended steppe ecotone, the Siberian taiga as well as the alpine tundra of the Khentii Mountains which act as the major freshwater generating area of the region. Based on the information gained during our field studies, we successfully applied the hydrological HBV-D model to simulate the discharge at the outlet of the basin and for a number of sub-basins. We could show that runoff within the study region is strongly influenced by the high climate variability. For example, the observed runoff in the basin shows a sudden decrease in the middle 1990s. At the same time, precipitation is decreasing and temperature is strongly increasing. The study is based on data from only six meteorological stations. Therefore, output from Global Climate Models has been considered as another potential data source. Accordingly, the HBV-D model was driven with WATCH forcing data for the years 1901-2000. This made it possible to simulate the runoff for years where no runoff observations exist. The results show that mean annual air temperature (MAT) has been strongly rising during the last 100 years (for example, between 1940 and 2001 MAT increased by 1.7°C) while precipitation shows strong, long-term oscillations. Accordingly, simulated mean annual discharge shows a high temporal variability with high fluctuations during the first half of the 20th

  7. Soil conservation under climate change: use of recovery biomasses on agricultural soil subjected to the passage of agricultural machinery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bergonzoli, S.; Beni, C.; Servadio, P.

    2012-04-01

    Biomass administration is a good practice to preserve the soil fertility in climate change conditions. A test regarding the use of compost derived by wine distillation residues was conducted in the coastal area sited west of Rome, on a sandy soil in continuous cropping with carrot, two cycles per year, with a consequent deep environmental impact. The soil was fertilized with different systems: T = unfertilized soil; F = fertigation 200 kg N ha-1; FC = fertigation 100 kg N ha-1 plus half agronomic dose of compost 4 t ha-1; C2 = double compost dose 16 t ha-1; C4 = quadruple compost dose 32 t ha-1. The functional qualities of the soil, subjected to the passage of agricultural machineries, were determined through the following parameters: bulk density, shear strength, water infiltration rate, organic matter and nitrogen content, cation exchange capacity. At the summer harvest, yield of carrots, their sugar content, firmness and nutrients concentration were determined. The plots only amended (C2 and C4), compared to other treatments, presented lower bulk density (1.36 and 1.28 Mg m-3 respectively), higher shear strength (9 and 8 kPa respectively), as well as increased hydraulic conductivity. In these treatments (C2 and C4), in addition, occurred a higher content of organic matter (0.95 and 1.07% respectively) and nitrogen (0.11 and 0.12% respectively) and increased CEC (541 and 556 respectively) respect to the T treatment that was 521 meq 100g-1. In plots T and F, the organic matter content was reduced at the end of the field test. The yield of carrots increased in FC, C2, and C4, compared to the other treatments. In plots C4, however, morphological changes were induced in approximately 30% of tap-roots, due to the excessive compost dose. In treatments C2 and C4 was observed a reduction of the concentration of Na in the roots, as opposed to the higher concentration of Ca and K and trace elements. The administration of compost has also induced the increase of soluble

  8. Quantification of biophysical adaptation benefits from Climate-Smart Agriculture using a Bayesian Belief Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Nijs, Patrick J.; Berry, Nicholas J.; Wells, Geoff J.; Reay, Dave S.

    2014-10-01

    The need for smallholder farmers to adapt their practices to a changing climate is well recognised, particularly in Africa. The cost of adapting to climate change in Africa is estimated to be $20 to $30 billion per year, but the total amount pledged to finance adaptation falls significantly short of this requirement. The difficulty of assessing and monitoring when adaptation is achieved is one of the key barriers to the disbursement of performance-based adaptation finance. To demonstrate the potential of Bayesian Belief Networks for describing the impacts of specific activities on climate change resilience, we developed a simple model that incorporates climate projections, local environmental data, information from peer-reviewed literature and expert opinion to account for the adaptation benefits derived from Climate-Smart Agriculture activities in Malawi. This novel approach allows assessment of vulnerability to climate change under different land use activities and can be used to identify appropriate adaptation strategies and to quantify biophysical adaptation benefits from activities that are implemented. We suggest that multiple-indicator Bayesian Belief Network approaches can provide insights into adaptation planning for a wide range of applications and, if further explored, could be part of a set of important catalysts for the expansion of adaptation finance.

  9. Aquatic microphylla Azolla: a perspective paradigm for sustainable agriculture, environment and global climate change.

    PubMed

    Kollah, Bharati; Patra, Ashok Kumar; Mohanty, Santosh Ranjan

    2016-03-01

    This review addresses the perspectives of Azolla as a multifaceted aquatic resource to ensure ecosystem sustainability. Nitrogen fixing potential of cyanobacterial symbiont varies between 30 and 60 kg N ha(-1) which designates Azolla as an important biological N source for agriculture and animal industry. Azolla exhibits high bioremediation potential for Cd, Cr, Cu, and Zn. Azolla mitigates greenhouse gas emission from agriculture. In flooded rice ecosystem, Azolla dual cropping decreased CH4 emission by 40 % than did urea alone and also stimulated CH4 oxidation. This review highlighted integrated approach using Azolla that offers enormous public health, environmental, and cost benefits. PMID:26697861

  10. Regional aspects of climate change impacts and related adaptation options in European agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eitzinger, J.

    2009-09-01

    Through a change in climatic conditions and variability, for example, extreme weather events (heat waves, droughts, etc.) are likely to occur more frequently in different spatial and time scales in future. Since agriculture is one the man' activities more dependant on weather behaviour, the impact on risks of agricultural production is indeed one of the most important issues in climate change assessments. Therefore an early recognition of risks and implementation of adaptation strategies is crucial as anticipatory and precautionary adaptation is more effective and less costly than forced, last minute, emergency adaptation or retrofitting. Results of climate change impact and adaptation studies often show considerable different results, depending on the spatial scale of regionalisation. However, for a decision maker, only a high spatial resolution of related study results are useful as it can represent local conditions and its spatial variablitiy much better. Therefore the ADAGIO project (adagio-eu.org) was designed to focus on regional studies in order to uncover regional specific problems. In this context a bottom-up approach is used beside the top-down approach of using scientifc studies, involving regional experts and farmers in the evaluation of potential regional vulnerabilites and adaptation options. Preliminary results of the regional studies and gathered feedback from experts and farmers show in general that (increasing) drought and heat is the main factor having impact on agricultural vulnerability not only in the mediterranean region, but also in the Central and Eastern European regions. Another important aspect is that the increasing risk of pest and diseases may play a more important role for agricultural vulnerability than assumed before, however, till now this field is only rarely investigated in Europe. An important aspect is also that there are increasing regional differences in the crop production potential in Europe due to climate change and that

  11. Prospects of Russian Agriculture development under global climate and technological changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valentini, Riccardo; Vasenev, Ivan

    2015-04-01

    Despite the great progresses of the last century in the agricultural sector and food supply, still about 820 million of people in developing countries are facing food scarcity and malnutrition. More than 180 million children are underweight. Except in Africa, 80 percent of the production gains came from increased yields in major cereal crops. The area cultivated has actually begun to decline in some regions. From now on, however, even Africa, which has always relied on cultivation of new land for production increases, will have to count on yield gains or pay high financial and ecological costs for expansion into areas not yet cultivated. The global scenario is changing fast. The technological, climatic and human-induced factors are creating long-lasting effects on the lives of people and on economic activities around the globe. In particular, climate change and/or variability is exacerbating rural increasing heat stress to natural habitats and human settlements, increasing climatic extremes, including drought and impacting food production. Agriculture of any kind is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage. Changes in total seasonal precipitation or in its pattern of variability are both important. The occurrence of moisture stress during flowering, pollination, and grain-filling is harmful to most crops and particularly so to corn, soybeans, and wheat. Increased evaporation from the soil and accelerated transpiration in the plants themselves will cause moisture stress; as a result there will be a need to develop crop varieties with greater drought tolerance. These climate change effects are particularly harmful in tropical regions of South America, Africa and South East Asia where food production is feeding a large part of world countries and poses serious risks to global food security in the future. Despite global projected climate change will affect a general decline of

  12. Towards an integrated economic assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lotze-Campen, H.; Piontek, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Popp, A.; Bauer, N.; Dietrich, J.; Mueller, C.; Schmitz, C.

    2012-12-01

    For a detailed understanding of the effects of climate change on global agricultural production systems, it is essential to consider the variability of climate change patterns as projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs), their bio-physical impact on crops and the response in land-use patterns and markets. So far, approaches that account for the interaction of bio-physical and economic impacts are largely lacking. We present an integrative analysis by using a soft-coupled system of a biophysical impact model (LPJmL, Bondeau et al. 2007), an economically driven land use model (MAgPIE, Lotze-Campen et al. 2008) and an integrated assessment model (ReMIND-R, Leimbach et al. 2010) to study climate change impacts and economic damages in the agricultural sector. First, the dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL is used to derive climate change impacts on crop yields for wheat, maize, soy, rice and other major crops. A range of different climate projections is used, taken from the dataset provided by the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, www.isi-mip.org), which bias-corrected the latest CMIP5 climate data (Taylor et al. 2011). Crop yield impacts cover scenarios with and without CO2 fertilization as well as different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and different GCMs. With increasing temperature towards the end of the century yields generally decrease in tropical and subtropical regions, while they tend to benefit in higher latitudes. LPJmL results have been compared to other global crop models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP, www.agmip.org). Second, changes in crop yields are analysed with the spatially explicit agro-economic model MAgPIE, which covers their interaction with economic development and changes in food demand. Changes in prices as well as welfare changes of producer and consumer surplus are taken as economic indicators. Due to climate-change related reductions in

  13. Future Climate Impacts on Harmful Algal Blooms in an Agriculturally Dominated Ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aloysius, N. R.; Martin, J.; Ludsin, S.; Stumpf, R. P.

    2015-12-01

    Cyanobacteria blooms have become a major problem worldwide in aquatic ecosystems that receive excessive runoff of limiting nutrients from terrestrial drainage. Such blooms often are considered harmful because they degrade ecosystem services, threaten public health, and burden local economies. Owing to changing agricultural land-use practices, Lake Erie, the most biologically productive of the North American Great Lakes, has begun to undergo a re-eutrophication in which the frequency and extent of harmful algal blooms (HABs) has increased. Continued climate change has been hypothesized to magnify the HAB problem in Lake Erie in the absence of new agricultural management practices, although this hypothesis has yet to be formally tested empirically. Herein, we tested this hypothesis by predicting how the frequency and extent of potentially harmful cyanobacteria blooms will change in Lake Erie during the 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment climate projections in the region. To do so, we used 80 ensembles of climate projections from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (moderate reduction, RCP4.5; business-as-usual, RCP8.5) to drive a spatiotemporally explicit watershed-hydrology model that was linked to several statistical predictive models of annual cyanobacteria blooms in Lake Erie. Owing to anticipated increases in precipitation during spring and warmer temperatures during summer, our ensemble of predictions revealed that, if current land-management practices continue, the frequency of severe HABs in Lake Erie will increase during the 21st century. These findings identify a real need to consider future climate projections when developing nutrient reduction strategies in the short term, with adaptation also needing to be encouraged under both greenhouse gas emissions scenarios in the absence of effective nutrient mitigation strategies.

  14. Water Resources Risks and the Climate Resilience Toolkit: Tools, Case Studies, and Partnerships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Read, E. K.; Blodgett, D. L.; Booth, N.

    2014-12-01

    The Water Resources Risk topic of the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT) is designed to provide decision support, technical, and educational resources to communities, water resource managers, policy analysts, and water utilities working to increase the resilience of water resources to climate change. We highlight the partnerships (between federal and state agencies, non-governmental organizations, and private partners), tools (e.g., downscaled climate products, historical and real-time water data, and decision support) and success stories that are informing the CRT Water Resources Risks Theme content, and identify remaining needs in available resources for building resilience of water resources to climate change. The following questions will frame the content of the Water Resources Risk CRT: How are human and natural components of the hydrologic cycle changing? How can communities and water managers plan for uncertain future conditions? How will changing water resources impact food production, energy resources, ecosystems, and human health? What water resources data are of high value to society and are they easily accessible? Input on existing tools, resources, or potential partnerships that could be used to further develop content and fill gaps in the Water Resources CRT is welcome. We also invite ideas for water resources 'innovation challenges', in which technology developers work to create tools to that enhance the capacity of communities and managers to increase resilience of water resources at the local and regional scales.

  15. Some guidelines for helping natural resources adapt to climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Baron, Jill S.; Julius, Susan Herrod; West, Jordan M.; Joyce, Linda A.; Blate, Geoffrey; Peterson, Charles H.; Palmer, Margaret; Keller, Brian D.; Kareiva, Peter; Scott, J. Michael; Griffith, Brad

    2008-01-01

    The changes occurring in mountain regions are an epitome of climate change. The dramatic shrinkage of major glaciers over the past century – and especially in the last 30 years – is one of several iconic images that have come to symbolize climate change. Climate creates the context for ecosystems, and climate variables strongly influence the structure, composition, and processes that characterize distinct ecosystems. Climate change, therefore, is having direct and indirect effects on species attributes, ecological interactions, and ecosystem processes. Because changes in the climate system will continue regardless of emissions mitigation, management strategies to enhance the resilience of ecosystems will become increasingly important. It is essential that management responses to climate change proceed using the best available science despite uncertainties associated with the future path of climate change, the response of ecosystems to climate effects, and the effects of management. Given these uncertainties, management adaptation will require flexibility to reflect our growing understanding of climate change impacts and management effectiveness.

  16. Impacts of Changing Climate on Agricultural Variability: Implications for Smallholder Farmers in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mondal, P.; Jain, M.; DeFries, R. S.; Galford, G. L.; Small, C.

    2013-12-01

    Agriculture is the largest employment sector in India, where food productivity, and thus food security, is highly dependent on seasonal rainfall and temperature. Projected increase in temperature, along with less frequent but intense rainfall events, will have a negative impact on crop productivity in India in the coming decades. These changes, along with continued ground water depletion, could have serious implications for Indian smallholder farmers, who are among some of the most vulnerable communities to climatic and economic changes. Hence baseline information on agricultural sensitivity to climate variability is important for strategies and policies that promote adaptation to climate variability. This study examines how cropping patterns in different agro-ecological zones in India respond to variations in precipitation and temperature. We specifically examine: a) which climate variables most influence crop cover for monsoon and winter crops? and b) how does the sensitivity of crop cover to climate variability vary in different agro-ecological regions with diverse socio-economic factors? We use remote sensing data (2000-01 - 2012-13) for cropping patterns (developed using MODIS satellite data), climate parameters (derived from MODIS and TRMM satellite data) and agricultural census data. We initially assessed the importance of these climate variables in two agro-ecoregions: a predominantly groundwater irrigated, cash crop region in western India, and a region in central India primarily comprised of rain-fed or surface water irrigated subsistence crops. Seasonal crop cover anomaly varied between -25% and 25% of the 13-year mean in these two regions. Predominantly climate-dependent region in central India showed high anomalies up to 200% of the 13-year crop cover mean, especially during winter season. Winter daytime mean temperature is overwhelmingly the most important climate variable for winter crops irrespective of the varied biophysical and socio

  17. Climate change impact on the management of water resources in the Seine River basin, France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorchies, David; Thirel, Guillaume; Chauveau, Mathilde; Jay-Allemand, Maxime; Perrin, Charles; Dehay, Florine

    2013-04-01

    It is today commonly accepted that adaptation strategies will be needed to cope with the hydrological consequences of projected climate change. The main objective of the IWRM-Net Climaware project is to design adaptation strategies for various socio-economic sectors and evaluate their relevance at the European scale. Within the project, the Seine case study focuses on dam management. The Seine River basin at Paris (43800km²) shows major socio-economic stakes in France. Due to its important and growing demography, the number of industries depending on water resources or located on the river sides, and the developed agricultural sector, the consequences of droughts and floods may be dramatic. To mitigate the extreme hydrological events, a system of four large multi-purpose reservoirs was built in the upstream part of the basin between 1949 and 1990. The IPCC reports indicate modifications of the climate conditions in northern France in the future. An increase of mean temperature is very likely, and the rainfall patterns could be modified: the uncertainty on future trends is still high, but summer periods could experience lower quantities of rainfall. Anticipating these changes are crucial: will the present reservoirs system be adapted to these conditions? Here we propose to evaluate the capacity of the Seine River reservoirs to withstand future projected climate conditions using the current management rules. For this study a modeling chain was designed. We used two hydrological models: GR4J, a lumped model used as a benchmark, and TGR, a semi-distributed model. TGR was tuned to explicitly account for reservoir management rules. Seven climatic models forced by the moderate A1B IPCC scenario and downscaled using a weather-type method (DSCLIM, Pagé et al., 2009), were used. A quantile-quantile type method was applied to correct bias in climate simulations. A model to mimic the way reservoirs are managed was also developed. The evolution of low flows, high flows and

  18. IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE ON MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The sensitivity of hydrology and water resources to climate variation and climate change is assessed for the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) of the United States. Observed streamflow, groundwater, and water-quality data are shown to vary in association with climate variation. Projectio...

  19. 78 FR 79478 - Advisory Committee on Climate Change and Natural Resource Science

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-12-30

    ... Geological Survey Advisory Committee on Climate Change and Natural Resource Science AGENCY: U.S. Geological... Advisory Committee Act, 5 U.S.C. App. 2, we announce that the Advisory Committee on Climate Change and... Officer, Policy and Partnership Coordinator, National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center,...

  20. Intensification through diversified resource use: the human ecology of a successful agricultural industry in Indonesian Borneo

    SciTech Connect

    Vondal, P.J.

    1987-03-01

    The success of an agricultural industry in commercial duck egg production in the swamplands of South Kalimantan (Borneo) is examined through the utilization of a human ecology framework. Seasonality of resource availability and human population growth are identified as two major constraints to production faced by farmers. Population increases in the urban sectors of southeastern Borneo also present economic opportunities for farmers because of the growing demand for poultry products. Farmers have responded by developing an intensification strategy in egg production based on the use of diversified resources for duck feed. The long-term consequences of these and other innovations in duck farming are discussed; and diversity-stability theory is examined for its applicability to this case of agricultural development and for rural development theory and practice.

  1. Climate benefits of changes in agricultural practices in the context of heat wave mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davin, E.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Ciais, P.; Olioso, A.; Wang, T.

    2014-12-01

    About half of the terrestrial biosphere is under direct human influence through land management (i.e., agricultural areas and managed forests). Changing management practices is therefore a promising avenue for climate change mitigation. The mitigation potential arising from changes in land management practices has been mainly evaluated in terms of carbon storage and GHG emissions [2]. On the other hand, these practices can also influence climate by altering the physical properties of the land surface, but these effects have received less attention so far. Here we show that peak temperatures during heat heaves can be attenuated through cropland albedo management [2]. We first present observational evidence that a substantial summer albedo increase can be obtained by switching from conventional to no-till agriculture. Then, using a regional climate model, we investigate the biogeophysical effect of a full conversion to no-till management over Europe. The cooling effect owing to albedo increase under no-till farming appears to be strongly amplified during warm events. This is due to the low cloud cover during these events, thus leading to a more efficient radiative cooling from albedo change. This implies a strong potential of no-till farming to mitigate heat wave impacts. The reduced evaporation associated with the crop residue cover tends to counteract the albedo-induced cooling, but during hot days the albedo effect remains the dominating factor. For heatwave summer days the local cooling effect gained from no-till practice is of the order of 2 degrees. These findings strongly suggest that the biogeophysical effect of management practices should be considered in the design of climate mitigation policies involving land management. References:[1] Smith, P. et al. (2014): Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU). In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel

  2. Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy.

    PubMed

    Bojovic, Dragana; Bonzanigo, Laura; Giupponi, Carlo; Maziotis, Alexandros

    2015-07-01

    The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of

  3. Interacting effects of climate and agriculture on fluvial DOM in temperate and subtropical catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graeber, D.; Goyenola, G.; Meerhoff, M.; Zwirnmann, E.; Ovesen, N. B.; Glendell, M.; Gelbrecht, J.; Teixeira de Mello, F.; Gonzalez-Bergonzoni, I.; Jeppesen, E.; Kronvang, B.

    2015-05-01

    Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is an important factor in aquatic ecosystems, which is involved in a large variety of biogeochemical and ecological processes, and recent literature suggests that it could be strongly affected by agriculture in different climates. Based on novel monitoring techniques, we investigated the interaction of climate and agriculture effects on DOM quantity and quality. To examine this, we took water samples over 2 years in two paired intensive and extensive farming catchments in each of Denmark (temperate climate) and Uruguay (subtropical climate). We measured dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON) concentrations and DOC and DON molecular fractions with size-exclusion chromatography. Moreover, we characterized DOM quality with absorbance and fluorescence measurements, as well as parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC). We also calculated the DOC and DON loads based on daily discharge measurements, as well as measured precipitation and air temperature. The fluvial DOM in the catchments in Uruguay was characterized by higher temporal variability of DOC and DON loads which were clearly to a higher temporal variability of precipitation and a DOM composition with rather plant-like character relative to the Danish catchments. Moreover, we found a consistently higher temporal variability of DOC and DON loads in the intensive farming catchments than in the extensive farming catchments, with highest temporal variability in the Uruguayan intensive farming catchment. Furthermore, the composition of DOM exported from the intensive farming catchments was consistently complex and always related to microbial processing in both Denmark and Uruguay. This was indicated by low C : N ratios, several spectroscopic DOM composition indices and PARAFAC fluorescence components. We propose that the consistent effect of intensive farming on DOM composition and the temporal variability of DOC and DON loads is related to similarities in the management of

  4. Climate warming and agricultural stressors interact to determine stream periphyton community composition.

    PubMed

    Piggott, Jeremy J; Salis, Romana K; Lear, Gavin; Townsend, Colin R; Matthaei, Christoph D

    2015-01-01

    Lack of knowledge about how the various drivers of global climate change will interact with multiple stressors already affecting ecosystems is the basis for great uncertainty in projections of future biological change. Despite concerns about the impacts of changes in land use, eutrophication and climate warming in running waters, the interactive effects of these stressors on stream periphyton are largely unknown. We manipulated nutrients (simulating agricultural runoff), deposited fine sediment (simulating agricultural erosion) (two levels each) and water temperature (eight levels, 0-6 °C above ambient) simultaneously in 128 streamside mesocosms. Our aim was to determine the individual and combined effects of the three stressors on the algal and bacterial constituents of the periphyton. All three stressors had pervasive individual effects, but in combination frequently produced synergisms at the population level and antagonisms at the community level. Depending on sediment and nutrient conditions, the effect of raised temperature frequently produced contrasting response patterns, with stronger or opposing effects when one or both stressors were augmented. Thus, warming tended to interact negatively with nutrients or sediment by weakening or reversing positive temperature effects or strengthening negative ones. Five classes of algal growth morphology were all affected in complex ways by raised temperature, suggesting that these measures may prove unreliable in biomonitoring programs in a warming climate. The evenness and diversity of the most abundant bacterial taxa increased with temperature at ambient but not with enriched nutrient levels, indicating that warming coupled with nutrient limitation may lead to a more evenly distributed bacterial community as temperatures rise. Freshwater management decisions that seek to avoid or mitigate the negative effects of agricultural land use on stream periphyton should be informed by knowledge of the interactive effects of

  5. Operational resilience of reservoirs to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: A case study from Sardinia.

    PubMed

    Mereu, Simone; Sušnik, Janez; Trabucco, Antonio; Daccache, Andre; Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, Lydia; Renoldi, Stefano; Virdis, Andrea; Savić, Dragan; Assimacopoulos, Dionysis

    2016-02-01

    Many (semi-) arid locations globally, and particularly islands, rely heavily on reservoirs for water supply. Some reservoirs are particularly vulnerable to climate and development changes (e.g. population change, tourist growth, hydropower demands). Irregularities and uncertainties in the fluvial regime associated with climate change and the continuous increase in water demand by different sectors will add new challenges to the management and to the resilience of these reservoirs. The resilience of vulnerable reservoirs must be studied in detail to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts of these changes. In this paper, a reservoir balance model is developed and presented for the Pedra e' Othoni reservoir in Sardinia, Italy, to assess resilience to climate and development changes. The model was first calibrated and validated, then forced with extensive ensemble climate data for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, agricultural data, and with four socio-economic development scenarios. Future projections show a reduction in annual reservoir inflow and an increase in demand, mainly in the agricultural sector. Under no scenario is reservoir resilience significantly affected, the reservoir always achieves refill. However, this occurs at the partial expenses of hydropower production with implications for the production of renewable energy. There is also the possibility of conflict between the agricultural sector and hydropower sector for diminishing water supply. Pedra e' Othoni reservoir shows good resilience to future change mostly because of the disproportionately large basin feeding it. However this is not the case of other Sardinian reservoirs and hence a detailed resilience assessment of all reservoirs is needed, where development plans should carefully account for the trade-offs and potential conflicts among sectors. For Sardinia, the option of physical connection between reservoirs is available, as are alternative water supply measures

  6. Accelerating Adaptation of Natural Resource Management to Address Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Cross, Molly S; McCarthy, Patrick D; Garfin, Gregg; Gori, David; Enquist, Carolyn AF

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Natural resource managers are seeking tools to help them address current and future effects of climate change. We present a model for collaborative planning aimed at identifying ways to adapt management actions to address the effects of climate change in landscapes that cross public and private jurisdictional boundaries. The Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI) piloted the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) planning approach at workshops in 4 southwestern U.S. landscapes. This planning approach successfully increased participants’ self-reported capacity to address climate change by providing them with a better understanding of potential effects and guiding the identification of solutions. The workshops fostered cross-jurisdictional and multidisciplinary dialogue on climate change through active participation of scientists and managers in assessing climate change effects, discussing the implications of those effects for determining management goals and activities, and cultivating opportunities for regional coordination on adaptation of management plans. Facilitated application of the ACT framework advanced group discussions beyond assessing effects to devising options to mitigate the effects of climate change on specific species, ecological functions, and ecosystems. Participants addressed uncertainty about future conditions by considering more than one climate-change scenario. They outlined opportunities and identified next steps for implementing several actions, and local partnerships have begun implementing actions and conducting additional planning. Continued investment in adaptation of management plans and actions to address the effects of climate change in the southwestern United States and extension of the approaches used in this project to additional landscapes are needed if biological diversity and ecosystem services are to be maintained in a rapidly changing world. Acelerando la Adaptación del Manejo de Recursos Naturales para

  7. Robust decision-making under uncertainty for a moorland ecosystem's water resources management under scenarios of climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flores-Lopez, F.; Forni, L.; Escobar, M.; Purkey, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    A climate-informed water resources decision-making framework can help effectively manage the complexity of water resources while adapting to climate change effects. The decision-making framework allows for more effective and inclusive water resources management, and results in better informed decisions about water allocation and adaptation strategies. This study focuses on modeling the moorland ecosystem's water resources management under climate variability, and strengthening the capacities of local actors through a robust decision-making under uncertainty framework to analyze and plan water resources use in the region of Piura, Peru. The objective is to determine the reliability of the moorland ecosystem's water supply and to provide relevant hydrological information under scenarios of climate variability and other non-climate uncertainties. As a first step, a participatory workshop was carried out with key regional actors to obtain information that would help to define the uncertainties that define availability of water resources, the potential strategies for adaptation to improve existing conditions, and the performance indicators by which to assess these uncertainties and strategies. For the identification of these factors, we used the XLRM assessment framework (eXogenous uncertainties, policy Levers, Relationships, and Measures). The XLRM framework allows us to organize the important elements of risk analysis and vulnerability in the four assessment categories. This study also used the WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system) platform to support water resources planning and decision-making under uncertainty e.g. climate change and other stresses in the system. Within the R component, WEAP was used to model the hydrological response of the moorland ecosystem. The model includes the results of the XLRM framework and seeks to determine the importance that the moorlands have on the regional water system. Results of this model include the head flows produced

  8. Impacts of climate change and variability on European agriculture: results of inventory analysis in COST 734 countries.

    PubMed

    Orlandini, Simone; Nejedlik, Pavol; Eitzinger, Josef; Alexandrov, Vesselin; Toulios, Leonidas; Calanca, Pierluigi; Trnka, Miroslav; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2008-12-01

    Climate plays a fundamental role in agriculture because of to its influence on production. All processes are regulated by specific climatic requirements. Furthermore, European agriculture, based on highly developed farming techniques, is mainly oriented to high quality food production that is more susceptible to meteorological hazards. These hazards can modify environment-genotype interactions, which can affect the quality of production. The COST 734 Action (Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture), launched in 2006, is composed of 28 signature countries and is funded by the European Commission. The main objective of the Action is the evaluation of possible impacts arising from climate change and variability on agriculture and the assessment of critical thresholds for various European areas. The Action will concentrate on four different tasks: agroclimatic indices and simulation models, including review and assessment of tools used to relate climate and agricultural processes; evaluation of the current trends of agroclimatic indices and model outputs, including remote sensing; developing and assessing future regional and local scenarios of agroclimatic conditions; and risk assessment and foreseen impacts on agriculture. The work will be carried out by respective Working Groups. This paper presents the results of the analysis of the first phase of inventory activity. Specific questionnaires were disseminated among COST 734 countries to collect information on climate change analysis, studies, and impact at the European level. The results were discussed with respect to their spatial distribution in Europe and to identify possible common long- and short-term strategies for adaptation. PMID:19076423

  9. A New Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impact and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Jones, J.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    This presentation provides an overview of the new methods developed by researchers in the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for regional climate impact assessment and analysis of adaptation in agricultural systems. This approach represents a departure from approaches in the literature in several dimensions. First, the approach is based on the analysis of agricultural systems (not individual crops) and is inherently trans-disciplinary: it is based on a deep collaboration among a team of climate scientists, agricultural scientists and economists to design and implement regional integrated assessments of agricultural systems. Second, in contrast to previous approaches that have imposed future climate on models based on current socio-economic conditions, this approach combines bio-physical and economic models with a new type of pathway analysis (Representative Agricultural Pathways) to parameterize models consistent with a plausible future world in which climate change would be occurring. Third, adaptation packages for the agricultural systems in a region are designed by the research team with a level of detail that is useful to decision makers, such as research administrators and donors, who are making agricultural R&D investment decisions. The approach is illustrated with examples from AgMIP's projects currently being carried out in Africa and South Asia.

  10. Optimal integrated management of groundwater resources and irrigated agriculture in arid coastal regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grundmann, J.; Schütze, N.; Heck, V.

    2014-09-01

    Groundwater systems in arid coastal regions are particularly at risk due to limited potential for groundwater replenishment and increasing water demand, caused by a continuously growing population. For ensuring a sustainable management of those regions, we developed a new simulation-based integrated water management system. The management system unites process modelling with artificial intelligence tools and evolutionary optimisation techniques for managing both water quality and water quantity of a strongly coupled groundwater-agriculture system. Due to the large number of decision variables, a decomposition approach is applied to separate the original large optimisation problem into smaller, independent optimisation problems which finally allow for faster and more reliable solutions. It consists of an analytical inner optimisation loop to achieve a most profitable agricultural production for a given amount of water and an outer simulation-based optimisation loop to find the optimal groundwater abstraction pattern. Thereby, the behaviour of farms is described by crop-water-production functions and the aquifer response, including the seawater interface, is simulated by an artificial neural network. The methodology is applied exemplarily for the south Batinah re-gion/Oman, which is affected by saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer system due to excessive groundwater withdrawal for irrigated agriculture. Due to contradicting objectives like profit-oriented agriculture vs aquifer sustainability, a multi-objective optimisation is performed which can provide sustainable solutions for water and agricultural management over long-term periods at farm and regional scales in respect of water resources, environment, and socio-economic development.

  11. Assessing the impact of climate change upon hydrology and agriculture in the Indrawati Basin, Nepal.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palazzoli, Irene; Bocchiola, Daniele; Nana, Ester; Maskey, Shreedhar; Uhlenbrook, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    Agriculture is sensitive to climate change, especially to temperature and precipitation changes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the climate change impacts upon rain-fed crops production in the Indrawati river basin, Nepal. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool SWAT model was used to model hydrology and cropping systems in the catchment, and to predict the influence of different climate change scenarios therein. Daily weather data collected from about 13 weather stations during 4 decades were used to constrain the SWAT model, and data from two hydrometric stations used to calibrate/validate it. Then management practices (crop calendar) were applied to specific Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) for the main crops of the region, rice, corn and wheat. Manual calibration of crop production was also carried, against values of crop yield in the area from literature. The calibrated and validated model was further applied to assess the impact of three future climate change scenarios (RCPs) upon the crop productivity in the region. Three climate models (GCMs) were adopted, each with three RCPs (2.5, 4.5, 8.5). Hence, impacts of climate change were assessed considering three time windows, namely a baseline period (1995-2004), the middle of century (2045-2054) and the end of century (2085-2094). For each GCM and RCP future hydrology and yield was compared to baseline scenario. The results displayed slightly modified hydrological cycle, and somewhat small variation in crop production, variable with models and RCPs, and for crop type, the largest being for wheat. Keywords: Climate Change, Nepal, hydrological cycle, crop yield.

  12. Differential Impacts of Climate Change on Crops and Agricultural Regions in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, A. N.

    2015-12-01

    As India's farmers and policymakers consider potential adaptation strategies to climate change, some questions loom large: - Which climate variables best explain the variability of crop yields? - How does the vulnerability of crop yields to climate vary regionally? - How are these risks likely to change in the future? While process-based crop modelling has started to answer many of these questions, we believe statistical approaches can complement these in improving our understanding of climate vulnerabilities and appropriate responses. We use yield data collected over three decades for more than ten food crops grown in India along with a variety of statistical approaches to answer the above questions. The ability of climate variables to explain yield variation varies greatly by crop and season, which is expected. Equally important, the ability of models to predict crop yields as well as their coefficients varies greatly by district even for districts which are relatively close to each other and similar in their agricultural practices. We believe these results encourage caution and nuance when making projections about climate impacts on crop yields in the future. Most studies about climate impacts on crop yields focus on a handful of major food crops. By extending our analysis to all the crops with long-term district level data in India as well as two growing seasons we gain a more comprehensive picture. Our results indicate that there is a great deal of variability even at relatively small scales, and that this must be taken into account if projections are to be made useful to policymakers.

  13. Adaptation of rainfed agriculture to climatic variability in the Mixteca Alta Region of Oaxaca, Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rogé, P.; Friedman, A. R.; Astier, M.; Altieri, M.

    2015-12-01

    The traditional management systems of the Mixteca Alta Region of Oaxaca, Mexico offer historical lessons about resilience to climatic variability. We interviewed small farmers to inquire about the dynamics of abandonment and persistence of a traditional management systems. We interpret farmers' narratives from a perspective of general agroecological resilience. In addition, we facilitated workshops in small farmers described their adaptation to past climate challenges and identified 14 indicators that they subsequently used to evaluate the condition of their agroecosystems. The most recent years presented increasingly extreme climatic and socioeconomic hardships: increased temperatures, delayed rainy seasons, reduced capacity of soils to retain soil moisture, changing cultural norms, and reduced rural labor. Farmers reported that their cropping systems were changing for multiple reasons: more drought, later rainfall onset, decreased rural labor, and introduced labor-saving technologies. Examination of climate data found that farmers' climate narratives were largely consistent with the observational record. There have been increases in temperature and rainfall intensity, and an increase in rainfall seasonality that may be perceived as later rainfall onset. Farmers ranked landscape-scale indicators as more marginal than farmer management or soil quality indicators. From this analysis, farmers proposed strategies to improve the ability of their agroecosystems to cope with climatic variability. Notably, they recognized that social organizing and education are required for landscape-level indicators to be improved. Transformative change is required to develop novel cropping systems and complementary activities to agriculture that will allow for farming to be sustained in the face of these challenges. Climate change adaptation by small farmers involves much more than just a set of farming practices, but also community action to tackle collective problems.

  14. Timescales of transformational climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan African agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rippke, Ulrike; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Jarvis, Andy; Vermeulen, Sonja J.; Parker, Louis; Mer, Flora; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Challinor, Andrew J.; Howden, Mark

    2016-06-01

    Climate change is projected to constitute a significant threat to food security if no adaptation actions are taken. Transformation of agricultural systems, for example switching crop types or moving out of agriculture, is projected to be necessary in some cases. However, little attention has been paid to the timing of these transformations. Here, we develop a temporal uncertainty framework using the CMIP5 ensemble to assess when and where cultivation of key crops in sub-Saharan Africa becomes unviable. We report potential transformational changes for all major crops during the twenty-first century, as climates shift and areas become unsuitable. For most crops, however, transformation is limited to small pockets (<15% of area), and only for beans, maize and banana is transformation more widespread (~30% area for maize and banana, 60% for beans). We envisage three overlapping adaptation phases to enable projected transformational changes: an incremental adaptation phase focused on improvements to crops and management, a preparatory phase that establishes appropriate policies and enabling environments, and a transformational adaptation phase in which farmers substitute crops, explore alternative livelihoods strategies, or relocate. To best align policies with production triggers for no-regret actions, monitoring capacities to track farming systems as well as climate are needed.

  15. Integrated Modelling on Flow and Water Quality Under the Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Activities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    SHI, J.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on flooding in the UK, inducing more intense and prolonged storms. Frequent flooding due to climate change already exacerbates catchment water quality. Land use is another contributing factor to poor water quality. For example, the move to intensive farming could cause an increase in faecal coliforms entering the water courses. In an effort to understand better the effects on water quality from land use and climate change, the hydrological and estuarine processes are being modelled using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), linked to a 2-D hydrodynamic model DIVAST(Depth Integrated Velocity and Solute Transport). The coupled model is able to quantify how much of each pollutant from the catchment reaches the harbour and the impact on water quality within the harbour. The work is focused on the transportation and decay of faecal coliforms from agricultural runoff into the rivers Frome and Piddle in the UK. The impact from the agricultural land use and activities on the catchment river hydrology and water quality are evaluated. The coupled model calibration and validation showed the good model performance on flow and faecal coliform in the watershed and estuary.

  16. The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: A Ricardian approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kabubo-Mariara, Jane; Karanja, Fredrick K.

    2007-06-01

    This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. We use cross-sectional data on climate, hydrological, soil and household level data for a sample of 816 households. We estimate a seasonal Ricardian model to assess the impact of climate on net crop revenue per acre. The results show that climate affects crop productivity. There is a non-linear relationship between temperature and revenue on one hand and between precipitation and revenue on the other. Estimated marginal impacts suggest that global warming is harmful for crop productivity. Predictions from global circulation models confirm that global warming will have a substantial impact on net crop revenue in Kenya. The results also show that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. Findings call for monitoring of climate change and dissemination of information to farmers to encourage adaptations to climate change. Improved management and conservation of available water resources, water harvesting and recycling of wastewater could generate water for irrigation purposes especially in the arid and semi-arid areas.

  17. Agriculture sector resource and environmental policy analysis: an economic and biophysical approach.

    PubMed

    House, R; McDowell, H; Peters, M; Heimlich, R

    1999-01-01

    Agricultural pollution of the environment is jointly determined by economic decisions driving land use, production practices, and stochastic biophysical processes associated with agricultural production, land and climate characteristics. It follows that environmental and economic statistics, traditionally collected independently of each other, offer little insight into non-point pollutant loadings. We argue that effective policy development would be facilitated by integrating environmental and economic data gathering, combined with simulation modelling linking economic and biophysical components. Integrated data collection links economics, land use, production methods and environmental loadings. An integrated economic/biophysical modelling framework facilitates policy analysis because monetary incentives to reduce pollution can be evaluated in the context of market costs and returns that influence land use and production activity. This allows prediction of environmental and economic outcomes from alternative policies to solve environmental problems. We highlight steps taken to merge economic and biophysical modelling for policy analysis within the Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture. An example analysis of a policy to reduce agricultural nitrogen pollution is presented, with the economic and environmental results illustrating the value of linked economic and biophysical analysis. PMID:10231835

  18. BOREAL FOREST CARBON STOCKS AND WOOD SUPPLY: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE RESPONSES TO CHANGING CLIMATE, AGRICULTURE AND SPECIES AVAILABILITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper assesses the role in boreal forest growth played by environment. It examines past changes in climate coupled with glaciation, and future changes in climate coupled with agricultural land use and tree species availability. The objective was to define and evaluate potenti...

  19. Climate and weather risk in natural resource models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merrill, Nathaniel Henry

    This work, consisting of three manuscripts, addresses natural resource management under risk due to variation in climate and weather. In three distinct but theoretically related applications, I quantify the role of natural resources in stabilizing economic outcomes. In Manuscript 1, we address policy designed to effect the risk of cyanobacteria blooms in a drinking water reservoir through watershed wide policy. Combining a hydrologic and economic model for a watershed in Rhode Island, we solve for the efficient allocation of best management practices (BMPs) on livestock pastures to meet a monthly risk-based as well as mean-based water quality objective. In order to solve for the efficient allocations of nutrient control effort, we optimize a probabilistically constrained integer-programming problem representing the choices made on each farm and the resultant conditions that support cyanobacteria blooms. In doing so, we employ a genetic algorithm (GA). We hypothesize that management based on controlling the upper tail of the probability distribution of phosphorus loading implies different efficient management actions as compared to controlling mean loading. We find a shift to more intense effort on fewer acres when a probabilistic objective is specified with cost savings of meeting risk levels of up to 25% over mean loading based policies. Additionally, we illustrate the relative cost effectiveness of various policies designed to meet this risk-based objective. Rainfall and the subsequent overland runoff is the source of transportation of nutrients to a receiving water body, with larger amounts of phosphorus moving in more intense rainfall events. We highlight the importance of this transportation mechanism by comparing policies under climate change scenarios, where the intensity of rainfall is projected to increase and the time series process of rainfall to change. In Manuscript 2, we introduce a new economic groundwater model that incorporates the gradual shift

  20. Water resource impacts of climate and land cover change in New Zealand: Balancing scientific supply and policy demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, D. B.; Rouse, H. L.; Duncan, M. J.

    2012-12-01

    Anthropogenic changes in climate and land cover have a range of effects on water resources. The policies in place to manage these potential changes depend on the biophysical drivers, the societal and environmental vulnerabilities, and the environmental (or resource management) governance institutions in place. As the science advances, so too will the policy, and as policy needs are identified, so too will the science advance. To illustrate the co-evolution of water resource science and policy, their dependence on environmental and social contexts, and their potential for further evolution, examples are drawn from New Zealand. Climate change is projected to have a range of impacts on the water resource system, including both increases and decreases in water supply, more severe droughts and floods, and degraded aquatic ecosystems. This is expected to have significant implications for the country's water-based agricultural economy and other societal values. Consequently, recent central government policy has directed all regional resource managers to take into consideration the foreseeable impacts of climate change, yet in many places projections of potential water resource change are lacking. In a similar vein, land cover change, such as the clearance of forest for dairy farming or the expansion of forests for carbon farming, also alters the quantity, quality and timing of water supply. In contrast to climate change, however, there has been no specific direction given from central government regarding land cover management, but rather a requirement to integrate land use change in broader limit setting. Going beyond this, two of the 16 regional authorities have already put in place policies that restrict forest expansion based on the potential reductions in catchment water supply. The differential responses to potential climate and land cover change depend on a range of scientific and societal factors, including the vulnerability of the water resource system and

  1. Perspectives on Climate Effects on Agriculture: The International Efforts of AgMIP in Sub-Saharan Africa

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kihara, Job; MacCarthy, Dilys S.; Bationo, Andre; Koala, Saidou; Hickman, Jonathon; Koo, Jawoo; Vanya, Charles; Adiku, Samuel; Beletse, Yacob; Masikate, Patricia; Rao, Karuturi P. C.; Mutter, Carolyn Z.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Jones, James W.

    2012-01-01

    Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is experiencing climate change-related effects that call for integrated regional assessments, yet capacity for these assessments has been low. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is advancing research on integrated regional assessments of climate change that include climate, crop, and economic modeling and analysis. Through AgMIP, regional integrated assessments are increasingly gaining momentum in SSA, and multi-institutional regional research teams (RRTs) centered in East, West, and Southern· Africa are generating new information on climate change impacts and adaptation in selected agricultural systems. The research in Africa is organized into four RRTs and a coordination team. Each of the RRTs in SSA is composed of scientists from the Consultative Group of International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) institutions, National Agriculture Research institutes (NARs), and universities consisting of experts in crop and economic modeling, climate, and information technology. Stakeholder involvement to inform specific agricultural systems to be evaluated, key outputs, and the representative agricultural pathways (RAPs), is undertaken at two levels: regional and national, in order to contribute to decision making at these levels. Capacity building for integrated assessment (lA) is a key component that is undertaken continuously through interaction with experts in regional and SSA-wide workshops, and through joint creation of tools. Many students and research affiliates have been identified and entrained as part of capacity building in IA. Bi-monthly updates on scholarly publications in climate change in Africa also serve as a vehicle for knowledge-sharing. With 60 scientists already trained and actively engaged in IA and over 80 getting monthly briefs on the latest information on climate change, a climate-informed community of experts is gradually taking shape in SSA. (See Part 2, Appendices 3-5 in

  2. Preparing for Future Water Resources Conflicts through Climate Change Adaptation Planning: A Case Study in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boehlert, B. B.; Neumann, J. E.; Strzepek, K.; Sutton, W.; Srivastava, J.

    2011-12-01

    Uncertainties posed by climate change and rapidly rising global water demand suggest that existing conflicts over water resources are likely to be exacerbated and new conflicts will appear where little or no conflict occurs today. Successfully planning for and preventing conflicts first requires a sound scientific understanding of the timing, location, and magnitude of water resource shortfalls, identification of the most appropriate climate adaptation options based on multiple criteria, and development of broad, multi-level consensus within the affected community. We recently applied this approach in a World Bank-funded adaptation assessment for the agricultural sectors of four countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia-Albania, Macedonia, Moldova, and Uzbekistan. For each major basin, we first used a hydrological model to project changes in water availability through 2050 under country-specific high, medium, and low climate impact scenarios. Next, under the three climate scenarios, we projected changes in agricultural water demand using a crop model (i.e., AquaCrop and DSSAT), and changes in water demand in other sectors based on population projections and sectoral forecasts of changes in per capita use. We incorporated these water availability and demand projections-along with other characteristics of the water system such as water supply priorities, environmental and transboundary flow requirements, irrigation efficiency, and reservoir locations and volumes-into a monthly integrated water resource planning tool (the Water Evaluation And Planning tool, or WEAP) to generate projected unmet water demand under each climate scenario and to each sector through 2050. The findings suggest that the agricultural sector in each country (except the relatively water-rich Albania) would experience significant unmet water demands, up to 52 percent in the Syr Darya and Amu Darya River basins of Uzbekistan. Potential adaptation responses to address unmet water demands-such as

  3. Climate Change and Adaptation in Irrigated Agriculture-A Case Study of the Yakima River

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, Michael J; Vail, Lance W; Stockle, Claudio O; Kemanian, Armen

    2004-07-22

    Using a case study of the Yakima River Valley in Washington State, we show that relatively simple tools originally developed to forecast the impact of the El Nino phenomenon on water supplies to irrigated agriculture also can be used to estimate the significantly shifted probability distribution of water shortages in irrigated agriculture during climate change, and that these shifted probabilities can be used to estimate the impact on agriculture in a region. The more permanent nature of changes in the temperature and precipitation regime associated with climate change means that risk management options also take a more permanent form (such as changes in crops and cultivars, and adding storage). A number of storage options have been proposed to deal with El Nino-associated drought, and would be more valuable under climate change. The most ambitious of the proposed storage projects is Black Rock, which would add about 500,00 acre-feet of water to supplement the Yakima's current 1.1 million acre-feet, at a cost currently estimated at $1.9 billion. For perspective, economic losses in the Yakima Valley reportedly have been about $100 million in a drought year such as 2001. Under current circumstances, the expected annual fisheries and periodic drought relief benefits may be large enough to justify the expenditure, but since drought has been occasional, environmental consequences of new projects uncertain, and the price tag beyond the reach of all but the Federal government, no projects have been built. The benefits become more certain with warming. Analysis shows that adding 500,000 acre-feet to TWSA would offset El Nino and the effects of 2 C warming.

  4. Impact of climate change on the water cycle of agricultural landscapes in Southwest Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Witte, Irene; Ingwersen, Joachim; Gayler, Sebastian; Streck, Thilo

    2016-04-01

    For agricultural production and life in general, water is a necessity. To ensure food and drinking water security in the future an understanding of the impact of climate change on the water cycle is indispensable. The objective of this PhD research is to assess how higher temperatures, higher atmospheric CO2 concentration and changing precipitation patterns will alter the water cycle of agricultural landscapes in Southwest Germany. As representative key characteristics data evaluation will focus on water use efficiency (WUE) and groundwater recharge. The main research question is whether the positive effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 on WUE will be overcompensated by a decrease in net primary production due to warming and to altered seasonal water availability caused by higher rainfall variability. Elevated atmospheric CO2 stimulates plant growth and improves WUE, whereas higher temperatures are expected to reduce net primary production and groundwater recharge. Another research question referring to groundwater recharge is whether groundwater recharge will increase in winter and decrease in summer in Southwest Germany. Changed groundwater recharge directly affects drinking water supply and is an indicator for possible temporary water shortages in agricultural production. A multi-model ensemble composed of 16 combinations of four crop growth models, two water regime models and two nitrogen models will be calibrated and validated against sets of field data. Field data will be provided by FOR 1965 from 2009-2015 for the Kraichgau region and the Swabian Alb, two contrasting areas with regard to climate and agricultural intensity. By using a multi model ensemble uncertainties in predictions due to different model structures (epistemic uncertainty) can be quantified. The uncertainty related to the randomness of inputs and parameters, the so-called aleatory uncertainty, will be additionally assessed for each of the 16 models. Hence, a more reliable range of future

  5. Global impacts of conversions from natural to agricultural ecosystems on water resources: Quantity versus quality

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scanlon, B.R.; Jolly, I.; Sophocleous, M.; Zhang, L.

    2007-01-01

    [1] Past land use changes have greatly impacted global water resources, with often opposing effects on water quantity and quality. Increases in rain-fed cropland (460%) and pastureland (560%) during the past 300 years from forest and grasslands decreased evapotranspiration and increased recharge (two orders of magnitude) and streamflow (one order of magnitude). However, increased water quantity degraded water quality by mobilization of salts, salinization caused by shallow water tables, and fertilizer leaching into underlying aquifers that discharge to streams. Since the 1950s, irrigated agriculture has expanded globally by 174%, accounting for ???90% of global freshwater consumption. Irrigation based on surface water reduced streamflow and raised water tables resulting in waterlogging in many areas (China, India, and United States). Marked increases in groundwater-fed irrigation in the last few decades in these areas has lowered water tables (???1 m/yr) and reduced streamflow. Degradation of water quality in irrigated areas has resulted from processes similar to those in rain-fed agriculture: salt mobilization, salinization in waterlogged areas, and fertilizer leaching. Strategies for remediating water resource problems related to agriculture often have opposing effects on water quantity and quality. Long time lags (decades to centuries) between land use changes and system response (e.g., recharge, streamflow, and water quality), particularly in semiarid regions, mean that the full impact of land use changes has not been realized in many areas and remediation to reverse impacts will also take a long time. Future land use changes should consider potential impacts on water resources, particularly trade-offs between water, salt, and nutrient balances, to develop sustainable water resources to meet human and ecosystem needs. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

  6. Assessing indigenous knowledge systems and climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture: A case study of Chagaka Village, Chikhwawa, Southern Malawi

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nkomwa, Emmanuel Charles; Joshua, Miriam Kalanda; Ngongondo, Cosmo; Monjerezi, Maurice; Chipungu, Felistus

    In Malawi, production from subsistence rain fed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. In response to the adverse effects of climate change and variability, a National Adaptation Programme of Action is used as framework for implementing adaptation programmes. However, this framework puts limited significance on indigenous knowledge systems (IKS). In many parts of the world, IKS have shown potential in the development of locally relevant and therefore sustainable adaptation strategies. This study was aimed at assessing the role of IKS in adaptation to climate change and variability in the agricultural sector in a rural district of Chikhwawa, southern Malawi. The study used both qualitative data from focus group and key informant interviews and quantitative data from household interviews and secondary data to address the research objectives. The study established that the local communities are able to recognise the changes in their climate and local environment. Commonly mentioned indicators of changing climatic patterns included delayed and unpredictable onset of rainfall, declining rainfall trends, warming temperatures and increased frequency of prolonged dry spells. An analysis of empirical data corroborates the people's perception. In addition, the community is able to use their IKS to adapt their agricultural systems to partially offset the effects of climate change. Like vulnerability to climat