Science.gov

Sample records for agricultural land-use change

  1. Climate change - Agricultural land use - Food security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagy, János; Széles, Adrienn

    2015-04-01

    In Hungary, plougland decreased to 52% of its area by the time of political restructuring (1989) in comparison with the 1950s. Forested areas increased significantly (18%) and lands withdrawn from agricultural production doubled (11%). For today, these proportions further changed. Ploughlands reduced to 46% and forested areas further increased (21%) in 2013. The most significat changes were observed in the proportion of lands withdrawn from agricultural production which increased to 21%. Temperature in Hungary increased by 1°C during the last century and predictions show a further 2.6 °C increase by 2050. The yearly amount of precipitation significantly decreased from 640 mm to 560 mm with a more uneven temporal distribution. The following aspects can be considered in the correlation between climate change and agriculture: a) impact of agriculture on climate, b) future impact of climate change on agriculture and food supply, c) impact of climate change on food security. The reason for the significant change of climate is the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) which results from anthropological activities. Between 2008 and 2012, Hungary had to reduce its GHG emission by 6% compared to the base period between 1985-1987. At the end of 2011, Hungarian GHG emission was 43.1% lower than that of the base period. The total gross emission was 66.2 million CO2 equivalent, while the net emission which also includes land use, land use change and forestry was 62.8 million tons. The emission of agriculture was 8.8 million tons (OMSZ, 2013). The greatest opportunity to reduce agricultural GHG emission is dinitrogen oxides which can be significantly mitigated by the smaller extent and more efficient use of nitrogen-based fertilisers (precision farming) and by using biomanures produced from utilised waste materials. Plant and animal species which better adapt to extreme weather circumstances should be bred and maintained, thereby making an investment in food security. Climate

  2. Implication of Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Climate Projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural land use plays an important role in land-atmosphere interaction. Agricultural activity is one of the most important processes driving human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) in a region. In addition to future socioeconomic changes, climate-induced changes in crop yield represent another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In feedback, the resulting LULCC influences the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. Therefore, assessment of climate change impact on future agricultural land use and its feedback is of great importance in climate change study. In this study, to evaluate the feedback of projected land use changes to the regional climate in West Africa, we employed an asynchronous coupling between a regional climate model (RegCM) and a prototype land use projection model (LandPro). The LandPro model, which was developed to project the future change in agricultural land use and the resulting shift in natural vegetation in West Africa, is a spatially explicit model that can account for both climate and socioeconomic changes in projecting future land use changes. In the asynchronously coupled modeling framework, LandPro was run for every five years during the period of 2005-2050 accounting for climate-induced change in crop yield and socioeconomic changes to project the land use pattern by the mid-21st century. Climate data at 0.5˚ was derived from RegCM to drive the crop model DSSAT for each of the five-year periods to simulate crop yields, which was then provided as input data to LandPro. Subsequently, the land use land cover map required to run RegCM was updated every five years using the outputs from the LandPro simulations. Results from the coupled model simulations improve the understanding of climate change impact on future land use and the resulting feedback to regional climate.

  3. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

  4. Quantitative analysis of agricultural land use change in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chou, Jieming; Dong, Wenjie; Wang, Shuyu; Fu, Yuqing

    This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on land use change in China. Crop sown area is used as index to quantitatively analyze the temporal-spatial changes and the utilization of the agricultural land. A new concept is defined as potential multiple cropping index to reflect the potential sowing ability. The impacting mechanism, land use status and its surplus capacity are investigated as well. The main conclusions are as following; During 1949-2010, the agricultural land was the greatest in amount in the middle of China, followed by that in the country's eastern and western regions. The most rapid increase and decrease of agricultural land were observed in Xinjiang and North China respectively, Northwest China and South China is also changed rapid. The variation trend before 1980 differed significantly from that after 1980. Agricultural land was affected by both natural and social factors, such as regional climate and environmental changes, population growth, economic development, and implementation of policies. In this paper, the effects of temperature and urbanization on the coverage of agriculture land are evaluated, and the results show that the urbanization can greatly affects the amount of agriculture land in South China, Northeast China, Xinjiang and Southwest China. From 1980 to 2009, the extent of agricultural land use had increased as the surplus capacity had decreased. Still, large remaining potential space is available, but the future utilization of agricultural land should be carried out with scientific planning and management for the sustainable development.

  5. Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes

  6. Change in agricultural land use constrains adaptation of national wildlife refuges to climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hamilton, Christopher M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Pidgeon, Anna M.

    2015-01-01

    Land-use change around protected areas limits their ability to conserve biodiversity by altering ecological processes such as natural hydrologic and disturbance regimes, facilitating species invasions, and interfering with dispersal of organisms. This paper informs USA National Wildlife Refuge System conservation planning by predicting future land-use change on lands within 25 km distance of 461 refuges in the USA using an econometric model. The model contained two differing policy scenarios, namely a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario and a ‘pro-agriculture’ scenario. Regardless of scenario, by 2051, forest cover and urban land use were predicted to increase around refuges, while the extent of range and pasture was predicted to decrease; cropland use decreased under the business-as-usual scenario, but increased under the pro-agriculture scenario. Increasing agricultural land value under the pro-agriculture scenario slowed an expected increase in forest around refuges, and doubled the rate of range and pasture loss. Intensity of land-use change on lands surrounding refuges differed by regions. Regional differences among scenarios revealed that an understanding of regional and local land-use dynamics and management options was an essential requirement to effectively manage these conserved lands. Such knowledge is particularly important given the predicted need to adapt to a changing global climate.

  7. Establishing sustainable GHG inventory systems in African countries for Agriculture and Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wirth, T. C.; Troxler, T.

    2015-12-01

    As signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), developing countries are required to produce greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories every two years. For many developing countries, including many of those in Africa, this is a significant challenge as it requires establishing a robust and sustainable GHG inventory system. In order to help support these efforts, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has worked in collaboration with the UNFCCC to assist African countries in establishing sustainable GHG inventory systems and generating high-quality inventories on a regular basis. The sectors we have focused on for these GHG inventory capacity building efforts in Africa are Agriculture and Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) as these tend to represent a significant portion of their GHG emissions profile and the data requirements and methodologies are often more complex than for other sectors. To support these efforts, the U.S. EPA has provided technical assistance in understanding the methods in the IPCC Guidelines, assembling activity data and emission factors, including developing land-use maps for representing a country's land base, and implementing the calculations. EPA has also supported development of various tools such as a Template Workbook that helps the country build the institutional arrangement and strong documentation that are necessary for generating GHG inventories on a regular basis, as well as performing other procedures as identified by IPCC Good Practice Guidance such as quality assurance/quality control, key category analysis and archiving. Another tool used in these projects and helps country's implement the methods from the IPCC Guidelines for the Agriculture and LULUCF sectors is the Agriculture and Land Use (ALU) tool. This tool helps countries assemble the activity data and emission factors, including supporting the import of GIS maps, and applying the equations from the IPPC Guidelines to

  8. Mapping Agricultural Land-Use Change in the US: Biofuel scenarios from 2000-2030

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    West, T. O.; Bandaru, V.; Hellwinckel, C. M.; Brandt, C. C.

    2011-12-01

    Uniform methods for land use assessment from local to continental scales are important for supporting national policies that focus on local management. In an effort to bridge local and national scales, we have been conducting land-use change research for the continental U.S. and doing so using 56-m resolution land use data. We have recently completed five scenarios of agricultural land-use change that represent a range of plausible biomass feedstock production. The scenarios include meeting targets of the Energy Independence and Security Act; alternative scenarios of only corn grain ethanol versus only cellulosic ethanol production; and alternative scenarios of no ethanol production with current agricultural program incentives versus no ethanol production with no monetary incentives for agricultural practices. These scenarios have implications for carbon cycling, greenhouse gas emissions, soil erosion, water quality, and other environmental variables. These scenarios also represent relevant policy issues that are currently being debated. We will present methods used to estimate future land-use change that include use of the USDA Cropland Data Layer, the POLYSYS agricultural economic model, and the Land Use Carbon Allocation model. We will present results that include spatially-explicit changes in crop rotations associated with the aforementioned biofuel scenarios. Results will consist of acreage changes per crop and the expected geographic location of these changes for years 2000-2030.

  9. Potential impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on future agricultural land use in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farzan Ahmed, Kazi; Wang, Guiling; You, Liangzhi; Yu, Miao

    2016-02-01

    Agriculture is a key component of anthropogenic land use and land cover changes that influence regional climate. Meanwhile, in addition to socioeconomic drivers, climate is another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In this study, we compare the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa using a prototype land use projection (LandPro) algorithm. The algorithm is based on a balance between food supply and demand, and accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. The impact of human decision-making on land use is explicitly considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios. In the application to West Africa, future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate model, and future changes of food demand is projected using a model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. Without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease in crop yield together with future increases in food demand is found to cause a significant increase in cropland areas at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century. The increase in agricultural land use is primarily climate-driven in the western part of West Africa and socioeconomically driven in the eastern part. Analysis of results from multiple scenarios of crop area allocation suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed decision-making can potentially minimize future land use changes in many parts of the region.

  10. Targeting land-use change for nitratenitrogen load reductions in an agricultural watershed

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jha, M.K.; Schilling, K.E.; Gassman, P.W.; Wolter, C.F.

    2010-01-01

    The research was conducted as part of the USDA's Conservation Effects Assessment Project. The objective of the project was to evaluate the environmental effects of land-use changes, with a focus on understanding how the spatial distribution throughout a watershed influences their effectiveness.The Soil and Water AssessmentTool (SWAT) water quality model was applied to the Squaw Creek watershed, which covers 4,730 ha (11,683 ac) of prime agriculture land in southern Iowa. The model was calibrated (2000 to 2004) and validated (1996 to 1999) for overall watershed hydrology and for streamflow and nitrate loadings at the watershed outlet on an annual and monthly basis. Four scenarios for land-use change were evaluated including one scenario consistent with recent land-use changes and three scenarios focused on land-use change on highly erodible land areas, upper basin areas, and floodplain areas. Results for the Squaw Creek watershed suggested that nitrate losses were sensitive to land-use change. If land-use patterns were restored to 1990 conditions, nitrate loads may be reduced 7% to 47% in the watershed and subbasins, whereas converting row crops to grass in highly erodible land, upper basin, and floodplain areas would reduce nitrate loads by 47%, 16%, and 8%, respectively. These SWAT model simulations can provide guidance on how to begin targeting land-use change for nitrate load reductions in agricultural watersheds.

  11. Reconstructing a century of agricultural land use and drivers of change from social and environmental records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sangster, Heather; Smith, Hugh; Riley, Mark; Sellami, Haykel; Chiverrell, Richard; Boyle, John

    2016-04-01

    Changes to agricultural land use practices and climate represent serious challenges to the future management of rural landscapes. In Britain, the modern rural landscape may seem comparatively stable relative to the long history of human impact. However, there have been important changes linked to the intensification of agricultural practices during the last ca. 100 years and more recently improvements in land management designed to reduce impacts on land and water resources. Few studies attempt high-resolution spatial reconstruction of historic land use change, which is essential for understanding such human-environment interactions in the recent past. Specifically, the absence of detailed spatio-temporal records of agricultural land use/land cover change at the catchment-scale presents a challenge in assessing recent developments in land use policies and management. Here, we generate a high-resolution time-series of historic land use at the catchment-scale for hydrological modelling applications. Our reconstructions focus on three catchments in England ((1) Brotherswater (NE Lake District); (2) Crose Mere (Shropshire); (3) Loweswater (NW Lake District)) spanning a range of agricultural environments subject to different levels of land use change; from intensively-farmed lowlands to upland catchments subject to lower-intensity grazing. Temporal reconstructions of changes in land management practices and vegetation cover are based on historic aerial photography (1940s-2000s) and satellite-derived land cover maps (1990, 2000, and 2007), in combination with annual records of parish-level agricultural census data (1890s-1970s) and farmer interviews, in order to produce an integrated series of digital land cover and land practice maps. The datasets are coupled with composite temperature and precipitation series produced from a number of local stations. Combined, these spatio-temporal datasets allow a comprehensive assessment of land use and management change against the

  12. Impacts of Biofuel-Induced Agricultural Land Use Changes on Watershed Hydrology and Water Quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Z.; Zheng, H.

    2015-12-01

    The US Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 has contributed to widespread changes in agricultural land uses. The impact of these land use changes on regional water resources could also be significant. Agricultural land use changes were evaluated for the Red River of the North Basin (RRNB), an international river basin shared by the US and Canada. The influence of the land use changes on spring snowmelt flooding and downstream water quality was also assessed using watershed modeling. The planting areas for corn and soybean in the basin increased by 62% and 18%, while those for spring wheat, forest, and pasture decreased by 30%, 18%, and 50%, from 2006 to 2013. Although the magnitude of spring snowmelt peak flows in the Red River did not change from pre-EISA to post-EISA, our uncertainty analysis of the normalized hydrographs revealed that the downstream streamflows had a greater variability under the post-EISA land use scenario, which may lead to greater uncertainty in predicting spring snowmelt floods in the Red River. Hydrological simulation also showed that the sediment and nutrient loads at the basin's outlet in the US and Canada border increased under the post-EISA land use scenario, on average sediment increasing by 2.6%, TP by 14.1%, nitrate nitrogen by 5.9%, and TN by 9.1%. Potential impacts of the future biofuel crop scenarios on watershed hydrology and water quality in the RRNB were also simulated through integrated economic-hydrologic modeling.

  13. Hydrologic and water-quality impacts of agricultural land use changes incurred from bioenergy policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Zhulu; Anar, Mohammad J.; Zheng, Haochi

    2015-06-01

    The US Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 has contributed to widespread changes in agricultural land uses. The impact of these land use changes on regional water resources could also be significant. Agricultural land use changes were evaluated for the Red River of the North Basin, an international river basin shared by the US and Canada. The influence of the land use change on spring snowmelt flooding and downstream water quality was also assessed using watershed modeling. The planting areas for corn and soybean in the basin increased by 62% and 18%, while those for spring wheat, forest, and pasture decreased by 30%, 18%, and 50%, from 2006 to 2013. Although the magnitude of spring snowmelt peak flows in the Red River did not change from pre-EISA to post-EISA, our uncertainty analysis of the normalized hydrographs revealed that the downstream streamflows had a greater variability under the post-EISA land use scenario, which may lead to greater uncertainty in predicting spring snowmelt floods in the Red River. Hydrological simulation also showed that the sediment and nutrient loads at the basin's outlet in the US and Canada border increased under the post-EISA land use scenario, on average sediment increasing by 2.6%, TP by 14.1%, nitrate nitrogen by 5.9%, and TN by 9.1%.

  14. Implications of agricultural land use change to ecosystem services in the Ganges delta.

    PubMed

    Islam, G M Tarekul; Islam, A K M Saiful; Shopan, Ahsan Azhar; Rahman, Md Munsur; Lázár, Attila N; Mukhopadhyay, Anirban

    2015-09-15

    Ecosystems provide the basis for human civilization and natural capital for green economy and sustainable development. Ecosystem services may range from crops, fish, freshwater to those that are harder to see such as erosion regulation, carbon sequestration, and pest control. Land use changes have been identified as the main sources of coastal and marine pollution in Bangladesh. This paper explores the temporal variation of agricultural land use change and its implications with ecosystem services in the Ganges delta. With time agricultural lands have been decreased and wetlands have been increased at a very high rate mainly due to the growing popularity of saltwater shrimp farming. In a span of 28 years, the agricultural lands have been reduced by approximately 50%, while the wetlands have been increased by over 500%. A large portion (nearly 40%) of the study area is covered by the Sundarbans which remained almost constant which can be attributed to the strict regulatory intervention to preserve the Sundarbans. The settlement & others land use type has also been increased to nearly 5%. There is a gradual uptrend of shrimp and fish production in the study area. The findings suggest that there are significant linkages between agricultural land use change and ecosystem services in the Ganges delta in Bangladesh. The continuous decline of agricultural land (due to salinization) and an increase of wetland have been attributed to the conversion of agricultural land into shrimp farming in the study area. Such land use change requires significant capital, therefore, only investors and wealthier land owners can get the higher profit from the land conversion while the poor people is left with the environmental consequences that affect their long-term lives and livelihood. An environmental management plan is proposed for sustainable land use in the Ganges delta in Bangladesh.

  15. What Drives Indirect Land Use Change? How Brazil's Agriculture Sector Influences Frontier Deforestation

    PubMed Central

    Richards, Peter

    2015-01-01

    From 2000-2005 high returns to soybeans set off an unprecedented expansion of agricultural production across Brazil. The expansion occurred concurrently to a sharp rise in deforestation, leading academics and policy makers to question the extent and means by which the growing agricultural sector was driving regional forest loss. In this article we consider and question the underlying drivers of indirect land use change, namely the potential impact of soybean expansion on beef prices and of land use displacement, via migration. We then present field level results documenting the displacement process in northern Mato Grosso and western Pará States of the Amazon. Our results question the extent to which tropical Amazon deforestation is attributable to land use displacement; however, we argue that the agricultural sector may drive deforestation through other channels, namely through regional land markets. PMID:26985080

  16. Understanding the drivers of agricultural land use change in south-central Senegal

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, E. C.; Tappan, G. Gray; Hadj, Amadou

    2004-01-01

    Described is (1) the land use and land cover changes that have taken place in the Department of Velingara, an area of tropical dry woodland in south-central Senegal, (2) the biophysical and socio-economic drivers of those changes with an emphasis on transition to agricultural use, and (3) an assessment of the likelihood of intensification of agriculture in the Department. Results indicate that land devoted to agriculture, either in active cultivation or short-term fallow, is increasing. There is little evidence of agricultural intensification in most of Velingara, with extensification coming largely at the cost of reduction in both upland woodlands and riparian forest.

  17. The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed-scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, ...

  18. Linking carbon stock change from land-use change to consumption of agricultural products: Alternative perspectives.

    PubMed

    Goh, Chun Sheng; Wicke, Birka; Faaij, André; Bird, David Neil; Schwaiger, Hannes; Junginger, Martin

    2016-11-01

    Agricultural expansion driven by growing demand has been a key driver for carbon stock change as a consequence of land-use change (CSC-LUC). However, its relative role compared to non-agricultural and non-productive drivers, as well as propagating effects were not clearly addressed. This study contributed to this subject by providing alternative perspectives in addressing these missing links. A method was developed to allocate historical CSC-LUC to agricultural expansions by land classes (products), trade, and end use. The analysis for 1995-2010 leads to three key trends: (i) agricultural land degradation and abandonment is found to be a major (albeit indirect) driver for CSC-LUC, (ii) CSC-LUC is spurred by the growth of cross-border trade, (iii) non-food use (excluding liquid biofuels) has emerged as a significant contributor of CSC-LUC in the 2000's. In addition, the study demonstrated that exact values of CSC-LUC at a single spatio-temporal point may change significantly with different methodological settings. For example, CSC-LUC allocated to 'permanent oil crops' changed from 0.53 Pg C (billion tonne C) of carbon stock gain to 0.11 Pg C of carbon stock loss when spatial boundaries were changed from global to regional. Instead of comparing exact values for accounting purpose, key messages for policymaking were drawn from the main trends. Firstly, climate change mitigation efforts pursued through a territorial perspective may ignore indirect effects elsewhere triggered through trade linkages. Policies targeting specific commodities or types of consumption are also unable to quantitatively address indirect CSC-LUC effects because the quantification changes with different arbitrary methodological settings. Instead, it is recommended that mobilising non-productive or under-utilised lands for productive use should be targeted as a key solution to avoid direct and indirect CSC-LUC. PMID:27543749

  19. Linking carbon stock change from land-use change to consumption of agricultural products: Alternative perspectives.

    PubMed

    Goh, Chun Sheng; Wicke, Birka; Faaij, André; Bird, David Neil; Schwaiger, Hannes; Junginger, Martin

    2016-11-01

    Agricultural expansion driven by growing demand has been a key driver for carbon stock change as a consequence of land-use change (CSC-LUC). However, its relative role compared to non-agricultural and non-productive drivers, as well as propagating effects were not clearly addressed. This study contributed to this subject by providing alternative perspectives in addressing these missing links. A method was developed to allocate historical CSC-LUC to agricultural expansions by land classes (products), trade, and end use. The analysis for 1995-2010 leads to three key trends: (i) agricultural land degradation and abandonment is found to be a major (albeit indirect) driver for CSC-LUC, (ii) CSC-LUC is spurred by the growth of cross-border trade, (iii) non-food use (excluding liquid biofuels) has emerged as a significant contributor of CSC-LUC in the 2000's. In addition, the study demonstrated that exact values of CSC-LUC at a single spatio-temporal point may change significantly with different methodological settings. For example, CSC-LUC allocated to 'permanent oil crops' changed from 0.53 Pg C (billion tonne C) of carbon stock gain to 0.11 Pg C of carbon stock loss when spatial boundaries were changed from global to regional. Instead of comparing exact values for accounting purpose, key messages for policymaking were drawn from the main trends. Firstly, climate change mitigation efforts pursued through a territorial perspective may ignore indirect effects elsewhere triggered through trade linkages. Policies targeting specific commodities or types of consumption are also unable to quantitatively address indirect CSC-LUC effects because the quantification changes with different arbitrary methodological settings. Instead, it is recommended that mobilising non-productive or under-utilised lands for productive use should be targeted as a key solution to avoid direct and indirect CSC-LUC.

  20. Assessing the consequence of land use change on agricultural productivity in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Huimin; Liu, Jiyuan; Huang, He Qing; Tao, Bo; Cao, Mingkui

    2009-05-01

    China's cultivated land has been undergoing dramatic changes along with its rapidly growing economy and population. The impacts of land use transformation on food production at the national scale, however, have been poorly understood due to the lack of detailed spatially explicit agricultural productivity information on cropland change and crop productivity. This study evaluates the effect of the cropland transformation on agricultural productivity by combining the land use data of China for the period of 1990-2000 from TM images and a satellite-based NPP (net primary production) model driven with NOAA/AVHRR data. The cropland area of China has a net increase of 2.79 Mha in the study period, which causes a slightly increased agricultural productivity (6.96 Mt C) at the national level. Although the newly cultivated lands compensated for the loss from urban expansion, but the contribution to production is insignificant because of the low productivity. The decrease in crop production resulting from urban expansion is about twice of that from abandonment of arable lands to forests and grasslands. The productivity of arable lands occupied by urban expansion was 80% higher than that of the newly cultivated lands in the regions with unfavorable natural conditions. Significance of cropland transformation impacts is spatially diverse with the differences in land use change intensity and land productivity across China. The increase in arable land area and yet decline in land quality may reduce the production potential and sustainability of China's agro-ecosystems.

  1. Spatially complex land change: The Indirect effect of Brazil's agricultural sector on land use in Amazonia

    PubMed Central

    Richards, Peter D.; Walker, Robert T.; Arima, Eugenio Y.

    2014-01-01

    Soybean farming has brought economic development to parts of South America, as well as environmental hopes and concerns. A substantial hope resides in the decoupling of Brazil's agricultural sector from deforestation in the Amazon region, in which case expansive agriculture need not imply forest degradation. However, concerns have also been voiced about the potential indirect effects of agriculture. This article addresses these indirect effects forthe case of the Brazilian Amazon since 2002. Our work finds that as much as thirty-two percent of deforestation, or the loss of more than 30,000 km2 of Amazon forest, is attributable, indirectly, to Brazil's soybean sector. However, we also observe that the magnitude of the indirect impact of the agriculture sector on forest loss in the Amazon has declined markedly since 2006. We also find a shift in the underlying causes of indirect land use change in the Amazon, and suggest that land appreciation in agricultural regions has supplanted farm expansions as a source of indirect land use change. Our results are broadly congruent with recent work recognizing the success of policy changes in mitigating the impact of soybean expansion on forest loss in the Amazon. However, they also caution that the soybean sector may continue to incentivize land clearings through its impact on regional land markets. PMID:25492993

  2. Spatially complex land change: The Indirect effect of Brazil's agricultural sector on land use in Amazonia.

    PubMed

    Richards, Peter D; Walker, Robert T; Arima, Eugenio Y

    2014-11-01

    Soybean farming has brought economic development to parts of South America, as well as environmental hopes and concerns. A substantial hope resides in the decoupling of Brazil's agricultural sector from deforestation in the Amazon region, in which case expansive agriculture need not imply forest degradation. However, concerns have also been voiced about the potential indirect effects of agriculture. This article addresses these indirect effects forthe case of the Brazilian Amazon since 2002. Our work finds that as much as thirty-two percent of deforestation, or the loss of more than 30,000 km(2) of Amazon forest, is attributable, indirectly, to Brazil's soybean sector. However, we also observe that the magnitude of the indirect impact of the agriculture sector on forest loss in the Amazon has declined markedly since 2006. We also find a shift in the underlying causes of indirect land use change in the Amazon, and suggest that land appreciation in agricultural regions has supplanted farm expansions as a source of indirect land use change. Our results are broadly congruent with recent work recognizing the success of policy changes in mitigating the impact of soybean expansion on forest loss in the Amazon. However, they also caution that the soybean sector may continue to incentivize land clearings through its impact on regional land markets.

  3. Hydrological impacts of land-use change and agricultural policy in the Brazilian Cerrado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macedo, M.; Coe, M. T.; Soares-Filho, B.; Ferreira, L. G.; Panday, P. K.

    2013-12-01

    Land-use change and climate variability are two of the most important forces driving changes to the surface water and energy balance in tropical ecosystems. Our analysis combines satellite-derived data on rainfall (CRU), evapotranspiration (MOD16), soil water storage (GRACE), and land cover (MOD12Q1) to understand the effect of past (2000-2012) land cover changes and climate variability on the water balance of the Brazilian Cerrado (savannah woodlands). Based on these historical relationships, we examine potential future land-use transitions from native Cerrado to pasturelands and mechanized agriculture, using the Brazilian Water Agency's (ANA) 12th order watersheds as our unit of analysis. In the Cerrado, these watersheds constitute nearly 37,500 units (mean area ~5,400 ha) and serve as a useful proxy for property-level land-use decisions. Our future scenarios evaluate the potential ramifications of recent changes in the Brazilian Forest Code, which we estimate may allow for legal deforestation of an additional 40 × 2 million hectares of native Cerrado. Our analysis indicates that historical land-cover changes have already caused a significant decrease in evapotranspiration, leading to a three-fold increase in discharge in small watersheds and a nearly 25% increase in large river basins like the Tocantins-Araguaia. As global demand for agricultural commodities continues to rise, it is likely that large-scale conversion of the Cerrado will continue or accelerate in the coming decade. Our research suggests that the cumulative impact of such large-scale land cover change may shift the water balance sufficiently to alter regional precipitation and deplete groundwater stores. Future research will focus on understanding the potential feedbacks of these large-scale hydrological changes on regional climate and agricultural productivity.

  4. The potential and sustainability of agricultural land use in a changing ecosystem in southern Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hunziker, Matthias; Caviezel, Chatrina; Kuhn, Nikolaus J.

    2015-04-01

    Southern Greenland currently experiences an increase in summer temperatures and a prolonged growing season (Masson-Delmotte et al. 2012), resulting in an increased potential regarding agricultural land use. Subsequently, the agricultural sector is expected to grow. Thereby, a higher hay production and grazing capacity is pursued by applying more efficient farming practices (Greenland Agriculture Advisory Board 2009). However, agricultural potential at borderline ecotones is not only influenced by factors like temperature and growing season but also by other ecologic parameters. In addition, the intensification of land use in the fragile boreal - tundra border ecotone has various environmental impacts (Perren et al. 2012; Normand et al. 2013). Already the Norse settlers practiced animal husbandry in southern Greenland between 986-1450 AD. Several authors mention the unadapted land use as main reason for the demise of the Norse in Greenland, as grazing pressure exceeded the resilience of the landscape and pasture economy failed (Fredskild 1988; Perren et al. 2012). During the field work in summer 2014, we compared the pedologic properties of already used hay fields, grazed land, birch woodland and barren, unused land around Igaliku (South Greenland), in order to estimate the potential and the sustainability of the land use in southern Greenland. Beside physical soil properties, nutrient condition of the different land use types, the shrub woodland and barren areas was analyzed. The results of the study show that the most suitable areas for intensive agricultural activity are mostly occupied. Further on, the fields, which were used by the Norse, seem to be the most productive sites nowadays. Less productive hay fields are characterized by a higher coarse fraction, leading to a reduced ability to store water and to an unfavorable nutrient status. An intensification of the agricultural land use by applying fertilizer would lead to an increased environmental impact

  5. A comparison of forest and agricultural shallow groundwater chemical status a century after land use change.

    PubMed

    Kellner, Elliott; Hubbart, Jason A; Ikem, Abua

    2015-10-01

    Considering the increasing pace of global land use change and the importance of groundwater quality to humans and aquatic ecosystems, studies are needed that relate land use types to patterns of groundwater chemical composition. Piezometer grids were installed in a remnant bottomland hardwood forest (BHF) and a historic agricultural field (Ag) to compare groundwater chemical composition between sites with contrasting land use histories. Groundwater was sampled monthly from June 2011 to June 2013, and analyzed for 50 physiochemical metrics. Statistical tests indicated significant differences (p<0.05) between the study sites for 32 out of 50 parameters. Compared to the Ag site, BHF groundwater was characterized by significantly (p<0.05) lower pH, higher electrical conductivity, and higher concentrations of total dissolved solids and inorganic carbon. BHF groundwater contained significantly (p<0.05) higher concentrations of all nitrogen species except nitrate, which was higher in Ag groundwater. BHF groundwater contained significantly (p<0.05) higher concentrations of nutrients such as sulfur, potassium, magnesium, calcium, and sodium, relative to the Ag site. Ag groundwater was characterized by significantly (p<0.05) higher concentrations of trace elements such as arsenic, cadmium, cobalt, copper, molybdenum, nickel, and titanium. Comparison of shallow groundwater chemical composition with that of nearby receiving water suggests that subsurface concentration patterns are the result of contrasting site hydrology and vegetation. Results detail impacts of surface vegetation alteration on subsurface chemistry and groundwater quality, thereby illustrating land use impacts on the lithosphere and hydrosphere. This study is among the first to comprehensively characterize and compare shallow groundwater chemical composition at sites with contrasting land use histories. PMID:26005752

  6. A comparison of forest and agricultural shallow groundwater chemical status a century after land use change.

    PubMed

    Kellner, Elliott; Hubbart, Jason A; Ikem, Abua

    2015-10-01

    Considering the increasing pace of global land use change and the importance of groundwater quality to humans and aquatic ecosystems, studies are needed that relate land use types to patterns of groundwater chemical composition. Piezometer grids were installed in a remnant bottomland hardwood forest (BHF) and a historic agricultural field (Ag) to compare groundwater chemical composition between sites with contrasting land use histories. Groundwater was sampled monthly from June 2011 to June 2013, and analyzed for 50 physiochemical metrics. Statistical tests indicated significant differences (p<0.05) between the study sites for 32 out of 50 parameters. Compared to the Ag site, BHF groundwater was characterized by significantly (p<0.05) lower pH, higher electrical conductivity, and higher concentrations of total dissolved solids and inorganic carbon. BHF groundwater contained significantly (p<0.05) higher concentrations of all nitrogen species except nitrate, which was higher in Ag groundwater. BHF groundwater contained significantly (p<0.05) higher concentrations of nutrients such as sulfur, potassium, magnesium, calcium, and sodium, relative to the Ag site. Ag groundwater was characterized by significantly (p<0.05) higher concentrations of trace elements such as arsenic, cadmium, cobalt, copper, molybdenum, nickel, and titanium. Comparison of shallow groundwater chemical composition with that of nearby receiving water suggests that subsurface concentration patterns are the result of contrasting site hydrology and vegetation. Results detail impacts of surface vegetation alteration on subsurface chemistry and groundwater quality, thereby illustrating land use impacts on the lithosphere and hydrosphere. This study is among the first to comprehensively characterize and compare shallow groundwater chemical composition at sites with contrasting land use histories.

  7. Agricultural land-use change in a Mexican oligotrophic desert depletes ecosystem stability

    PubMed Central

    Hernández-Becerra, Natali; Tapia-Torres, Yunuen; Beltrán-Paz, Ofelia; Blaz, Jazmín; Souza, Valeria

    2016-01-01

    Background Global demand for food has led to increased land-use change, particularly in dry land ecosystems, which has caused several environmental problems due to the soil degradation. In the Cuatro Cienegas Basin (CCB), alfalfa production irrigated by flooding impacts strongly on the soil. Methods In order to analyze the effect of such agricultural land-use change on soil nutrient dynamics and soil bacterial community composition, this work examined an agricultural gradient within the CCB which was comprised of a native desert grassland, a plot currently cultivated with alfalfa and a former agricultural field that had been abandoned for over 30 years. For each site, we analyzed C, N and P dynamic fractions, the activity of the enzyme phosphatase and the bacterial composition obtained using 16S rRNA clone libraries. Results The results showed that the cultivated site presented a greater availability of water and dissolved organic carbon, these conditions promoted mineralization processes mediated by heterotrophic microorganisms, while the abandoned land was limited by water and dissolved organic nitrogen. The low amount of dissolved organic matter promoted nitrification, which is mediated by autotrophic microorganisms. The microbial N immobilization process and specific phosphatase activity were both favored in the native grassland. As expected, differences in bacterial taxonomical composition were observed among sites. The abandoned site exhibited similar compositions than native grassland, while the cultivated site differed. Discussion The results suggest that the transformation of native grassland into agricultural land induces drastic changes in soil nutrient dynamics as well as in the bacterial community. However, with the absence of agricultural practices, some of the soil characteristics analyzed slowly recovers their natural state. PMID:27602304

  8. Agricultural land-use change in a Mexican oligotrophic desert depletes ecosystem stability

    PubMed Central

    Hernández-Becerra, Natali; Tapia-Torres, Yunuen; Beltrán-Paz, Ofelia; Blaz, Jazmín; Souza, Valeria

    2016-01-01

    Background Global demand for food has led to increased land-use change, particularly in dry land ecosystems, which has caused several environmental problems due to the soil degradation. In the Cuatro Cienegas Basin (CCB), alfalfa production irrigated by flooding impacts strongly on the soil. Methods In order to analyze the effect of such agricultural land-use change on soil nutrient dynamics and soil bacterial community composition, this work examined an agricultural gradient within the CCB which was comprised of a native desert grassland, a plot currently cultivated with alfalfa and a former agricultural field that had been abandoned for over 30 years. For each site, we analyzed C, N and P dynamic fractions, the activity of the enzyme phosphatase and the bacterial composition obtained using 16S rRNA clone libraries. Results The results showed that the cultivated site presented a greater availability of water and dissolved organic carbon, these conditions promoted mineralization processes mediated by heterotrophic microorganisms, while the abandoned land was limited by water and dissolved organic nitrogen. The low amount of dissolved organic matter promoted nitrification, which is mediated by autotrophic microorganisms. The microbial N immobilization process and specific phosphatase activity were both favored in the native grassland. As expected, differences in bacterial taxonomical composition were observed among sites. The abandoned site exhibited similar compositions than native grassland, while the cultivated site differed. Discussion The results suggest that the transformation of native grassland into agricultural land induces drastic changes in soil nutrient dynamics as well as in the bacterial community. However, with the absence of agricultural practices, some of the soil characteristics analyzed slowly recovers their natural state.

  9. Simulated carbon emissions from land-use change are substantially enhanced by accounting for agricultural management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pugh, T. A. M.; Arneth, A.; Olin, S.; Ahlström, A.; Bayer, A. D.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Lindeskog, M.; Schurgers, G.

    2015-12-01

    It is over three decades since a large terrestrial carbon sink (ST) was first reported. The magnitude of the net sink is now relatively well known, and its importance for dampening atmospheric CO2 accumulation, and hence climate change, widely recognised. But the contributions of underlying processes are not well defined, particularly the role of emissions from land-use change (ELUC) versus the biospheric carbon uptake (SL; ST = SL - ELUC). One key aspect of the interplay of ELUC and SL is the role of agricultural processes in land-use change emissions, which has not yet been clearly quantified at the global scale. Here we assess the effect of representing agricultural land management in a dynamic global vegetation model. Accounting for harvest, grazing and tillage resulted in cumulative ELUC since 1850 ca. 70% larger than in simulations ignoring these processes, but also changed the timescale over which these emissions occurred and led to underestimations of the carbon sequestered by possible future reforestation actions. The vast majority of Earth system models in the recent IPCC Fifth Assessment Report omit these processes, suggesting either an overestimation in their present-day ST, or an underestimation of SL, of up to 1.0 Pg C a-1. Management processes influencing crop productivity per se are important for food supply, but were found to have little influence on ELUC.

  10. Simulated carbon emissions from land-use change are substantially enhanced by accounting for agricultural management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pugh, T. A. M.; Arneth, A.; Olin, S.; Ahlström, A.; Bayer, A. D.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Lindeskog, M.; Schurgers, G.

    2015-12-01

    It is over three decades since a large terrestrial carbon sink (S T) was first reported. The magnitude of the net sink is now relatively well known, and its importance for dampening atmospheric CO2 accumulation, and hence climate change, widely recognised. But the contributions of underlying processes are not well defined, particularly the role of emissions from land-use change (E LUC) versus the biospheric carbon uptake (S L; S T = S L - E LUC). One key aspect of the interplay of E LUC and S L is the role of agricultural processes in land-use change emissions, which has not yet been clearly quantified at the global scale. Here we assess the effect of representing agricultural land management in a dynamic global vegetation model. Accounting for harvest, grazing and tillage resulted in cumulative E LUC since 1850 ca. 70% larger than in simulations ignoring these processes, but also changed the timescale over which these emissions occurred and led to underestimations of the carbon sequestered by possible future reforestation actions. The vast majority of Earth system models in the recent IPCC Fifth Assessment Report omit these processes, suggesting either an overestimation in their present-day S T, or an underestimation of S L, of up to 1.0 Pg C a-1. Management processes influencing crop productivity per se are important for food supply, but were found to have little influence on E LUC.

  11. US agricultural policy, land use change, and biofuels: are we driving our way to the next dust bowl?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, Christopher K.

    2015-05-01

    Lark et al (2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 044003), analyze recent shifts in US agricultural land use (2008-2012) using newly-available, high-resolution geospatial information, the Cropland Data Layer. Cropland expansion documented by Lark et al suggests the need to reform national agricultural policies in the wake of an emerging, new era of US agriculture characterized by rapid land cover/land use change.

  12. Land-use change affects water recycling in Brazil's last agricultural frontier.

    PubMed

    Spera, Stephanie A; Galford, Gillian L; Coe, Michael T; Macedo, Marcia N; Mustard, John F

    2016-10-01

    Historically, conservation-oriented research and policy in Brazil have focused on Amazon deforestation, but a majority of Brazil's deforestation and agricultural expansion has occurred in the neighboring Cerrado biome, a biodiversity hotspot comprised of dry forests, woodland savannas, and grasslands. Resilience of rainfed agriculture in both biomes likely depends on water recycling in undisturbed Cerrado vegetation; yet little is known about how changes in land-use and land-cover affect regional climate feedbacks in the Cerrado. We used remote sensing techniques to map land-use change across the Cerrado from 2003 to 2013. During this period, cropland agriculture more than doubled in area from 1.2 to 2.5 million ha, with 74% of new croplands sourced from previously intact Cerrado vegetation. We find that these changes have decreased the amount of water recycled to the atmosphere via evapotranspiration (ET) each year. In 2013 alone, cropland areas recycled 14 km(3) less (-3%) water than if the land cover had been native Cerrado vegetation. ET from single-cropping systems (e.g., soybeans) is less than from natural vegetation in all years, except in the months of January and February, the height of the growing season. In double-cropping systems (e.g., soybeans followed by corn), ET is similar to or greater than natural vegetation throughout a majority of the wet season (December-May). As intensification and extensification of agricultural production continue in the region, the impacts on the water cycle and opportunities for mitigation warrant consideration. For example, if an environmental goal is to minimize impacts on the water cycle, double cropping (intensification) might be emphasized over extensification to maintain a landscape that behaves more akin to the natural system. PMID:27028754

  13. Land-use change affects water recycling in Brazil's last agricultural frontier.

    PubMed

    Spera, Stephanie A; Galford, Gillian L; Coe, Michael T; Macedo, Marcia N; Mustard, John F

    2016-10-01

    Historically, conservation-oriented research and policy in Brazil have focused on Amazon deforestation, but a majority of Brazil's deforestation and agricultural expansion has occurred in the neighboring Cerrado biome, a biodiversity hotspot comprised of dry forests, woodland savannas, and grasslands. Resilience of rainfed agriculture in both biomes likely depends on water recycling in undisturbed Cerrado vegetation; yet little is known about how changes in land-use and land-cover affect regional climate feedbacks in the Cerrado. We used remote sensing techniques to map land-use change across the Cerrado from 2003 to 2013. During this period, cropland agriculture more than doubled in area from 1.2 to 2.5 million ha, with 74% of new croplands sourced from previously intact Cerrado vegetation. We find that these changes have decreased the amount of water recycled to the atmosphere via evapotranspiration (ET) each year. In 2013 alone, cropland areas recycled 14 km(3) less (-3%) water than if the land cover had been native Cerrado vegetation. ET from single-cropping systems (e.g., soybeans) is less than from natural vegetation in all years, except in the months of January and February, the height of the growing season. In double-cropping systems (e.g., soybeans followed by corn), ET is similar to or greater than natural vegetation throughout a majority of the wet season (December-May). As intensification and extensification of agricultural production continue in the region, the impacts on the water cycle and opportunities for mitigation warrant consideration. For example, if an environmental goal is to minimize impacts on the water cycle, double cropping (intensification) might be emphasized over extensification to maintain a landscape that behaves more akin to the natural system.

  14. Extreme temperature trends in major cropping systems and their relation to agricultural land use change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mueller, N. D.; Butler, E. E.; McKinnon, K. A.; Rhines, A. N.; Tingley, M.; Siebert, S.; Holbrook, N. M.; Huybers, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    High temperature extremes during the growing season can reduce agricultural production. At the same time, agricultural practices can modify temperatures by altering the surface energy budget. Here we investigate growing season climate trends in major cropping systems and their relationship with agricultural land use change. In the US Midwest, 100-year trends exhibit a transition towards more favorable conditions, with cooler summer temperature extremes and increased precipitation. Statistically significant correspondence is found between the cooling pattern and trends in cropland intensification, as well as with trends towards greater irrigated land over a small subset of the domain. Land conversion to cropland, often considered an important influence on historical temperatures, is not significantly associated with cooling. We suggest that cooling is primarily associated with agricultural intensification increasing the potential for evapotranspiration, consistent with our finding that cooling trends are greatest for the highest temperature percentiles, and that increased evapotranspiration generally leads to greater precipitation. Temperatures over rainfed croplands show no cooling trend during drought conditions, consistent with evapotranspiration requiring adequate soil moisture, and implying that modern drought events feature greater warming as baseline cooler temperatures revert to historically high extremes. Preliminary results indicate these relationships between temperature extremes, irrigation, and intensification are also observed in other major summer cropping systems, including northeast China, Argentina, and the Canadian Prairies.

  15. Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M.; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

    2016-09-01

    Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

  16. Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

    2016-09-01

    Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity. PMID:27372660

  17. Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

    2016-09-01

    Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

  18. Modelling economic and biophysical drivers of agricultural land-use change. Calibration and evaluation of the Nexus Land-Use model over 1961-2006

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Souty, F.; Dorin, B.; Brunelle, T.; Dumas, P.; Ciais, P.

    2013-12-01

    The central role of land-use change in the Earth System and its implications for food security, biodiversity and climate has spurred the development of global models that combine economical and agro-ecological drivers and constraints. With such a development of integrated approaches, evaluating the performance of global models of land-use against observed historical changes recorded by agricultural data becomes increasingly challenging. The Nexus Land-Use model is an example of land-use model integrating both biophysical and economical processes and constraints. This paper is an attempt to evaluate its ability to simulate historical agricultural land-use changes over 12 large but economically coherent regions of the world since 1961. The evaluation focuses on the intensification vs. extensification response of crop and livestock production in response to changes of socio-economic drivers over time, such as fertiliser price, population and diet. We examine how well the Nexus model can reproduce annual observation-based estimates of cropland vs. pasture areas from 1961 to 2006. Food trade, consumption of fertilisers and food price are also evaluated against historical data. Over the 12 regions considered, the total relative error on simulated cropland area is 2% yr-1 over 1980-2006. During the period 1961-2006, the error is larger (4% yr-1) due to an overestimation of the cropland area in China and Former Soviet Union over 1961-1980. Food prices tend to be underestimated while the performances of the trade module vary widely among regions (net imports are underestimated in Western countries at the expense of Brazil and Asia). Finally, a sensitivity analysis over a sample of input datasets provides some insights on the robustness of this evaluation.

  19. Changes in soil fungal communities across a landscape of agricultural soil land-uses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berthrong, S. T.; Buckley, D. H.; Drinkwater, L. E.

    2012-12-01

    Agricultural management is a major driver of changes in soils and their resident microbial communities, but we do not yet have a clear picture of how agriculture affects soil fungi. This is an important gap in our knowledge since fungi play an important role in many soil processes. Previous research has suggested that organic management practices can lead to an increase in soil fungal community diversity, which could have impacts on soil processes and alter the long term trajectory of soil quality in agricultural systems. Also, the relationship between management effects, biogeography, and soil fungi is not clear. The biogeography of macroscopic species is well described by taxa-area relationships and distance decay models, and recent research has suggested that certain subsets of fungi (e.g. AMF, litter sapotrophs) demonstrate similar patterns. However there is little information on how soil fungi as a whole are distributed across a landscape with soils under different managements. The goal of this project was to examine how different management practices alter soil fungal communities across a landscape of agricultural fields in upstate NY. We asked several specific questions: 1) Do different types of agricultural land-uses lead to divergent or convergent communities of soil fungi? 2) If soil type is held constant, do soil fungal communities diverge with geographic distance? 3) What are the major fungal groups that change in response to soil management, and are they cosmopolitan or endemic across the landscape? We studied these questions across agricultural fields in upstate NY that ranged from conventional corn, organic grains/corn, and long-term pasture. We sampled four fields (conventional, 10 and 20 year organic, and pasture) that had identical soils types and ranged from 100 m to 4 km apart. We utilized a multiplexed pyrosequencing approach on genomic DNA to analyze the structure of the soils' fungal communities. This approach allowed us to study soil fungi

  20. Spatial Modeling of Agricultural Land-Use Change at Global Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meiyappan, Prasanth; Dalton, Michael; O'Neill, Brian C.; Jain, Atul K.

    2013-12-01

    Land use is both a source and consequence of climate change. Long-term modeling of land use is central in global scale assessments using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to explore policy alternatives; especially because adaptation and mitigation of climate change requires long-term commitment. We present a land-use change modeling framework that can reproduce the past 100 years of evolution of global cropland and pastureland patterns to a reasonable accuracy. The novelty of our approach underlies in integrating knowledge from both the observed behavior and economic rationale behind land-use decisions, thereby making up for the intrinsic deficits in both the disciplines. The underlying economic rationale is profit maximization of individual landowners that implicitly reflects local-level decisions-making process at a larger scale. Observed behavior based on examining the relationships between contemporary land-use patterns and its socioeconomic and biophysical drivers, enters as an explicit factor into the economic framework. The land-use allocation is modified by autonomous developments and competition between land-use types. The framework accounts for spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions. The model is currently configured to downscale continental-scale aggregate land-use information to region specific changes in land-use patterns (0.5-deg spatial resolution). The temporal resolution is one year. The historical validation experiment is facilitated by synthesizing gridded maps of a wide range of potential biophysical and socioeconomic driving factors for the 20th century. To our knowledge, this is the first retrospective analysis that has been successful in reproducing the historical experience at a global scale. We apply the method to gain useful insights on two questions: (1) what are the dominant socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors of contemporary cropland and pastureland patterns, across geographic

  1. Estimating the effects of potential climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes of a large agriculture dominated watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neupane, Ram P.; Kumar, Sandeep

    2015-10-01

    Land use and climate are two major components that directly influence catchment hydrologic processes, and therefore better understanding of their effects is crucial for future land use planning and water resources management. We applied Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess the effects of potential land use change and climate variability on hydrologic processes of large agriculture dominated Big Sioux River (BSR) watershed located in North Central region of USA. Future climate change scenarios were simulated using average output of temperature and precipitation data derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B, and A2) for end-21st century. Land use change was modeled spatially based on historic long-term pattern of agricultural transformation in the basin, and included the expansion of corn (Zea mays L.) cultivation by 2, 5, and 10%. We estimated higher surface runoff in all land use scenarios with maximum increase of 4% while expanding 10% corn cultivation in the basin. Annual stream discharge was estimated higher with maximum increase of 72% in SRES-B1 attributed from higher groundwater contribution of 152% in the same scenario. We assessed increased precipitation during spring season but the summer precipitation decreased substantially in all climate change scenarios. Similar to decreased summer precipitation, discharge of the BSR also decreased potentially affecting agricultural production due to reduced future water availability during crop growing season in the basin. However, combined effects of potential land use change with climate variability enhanced for higher annual discharge of the BSR. Therefore, these estimations can be crucial for implications of future land use planning and water resources management of the basin.

  2. Out-migration and land-use change in agricultural frontiers: insights from Altamira settlement project

    PubMed Central

    D’Antona, Álvaro O.

    2012-01-01

    One of Daniel Hogan’s lasting impacts on international demography community comes through his advocacy for studying bidirectional relationships between environment and demography, particularly migration. We build on his holistic approach to mobility and examine dynamic changes in land use and migration among small farm families in Altamira, Pará, Brazil. We find that prior area in either pasture or perennials promotes out-migration of adult children, but that out-migration is not directly associated with land-use change. In contrast to early formulations of household life cycle models that argued that aging parents would decrease productive land use as children left the farm, we find no effect of out-migration of adult children on land-use change. Instead, remittances facilitate increases in area in perennials, a slower to pay off investment that requires scarce capital, but in pasture. While remittances are rare, they appear to permit sound investments in the rural milieu and thus to slow rural exodus and the potential consolidation of land into large holdings. We would do well to promote the conditions that allow them to be sent and to be used productively to keep families on the land to avoid the specter of extensive deforestation for pasture followed by land consolidation. PMID:23129878

  3. Out-migration and land-use change in agricultural frontiers: insights from Altamira settlement project.

    PubMed

    Vanwey, Leah K; Guedes, Gilvan R; D'Antona, Alvaro O

    2012-09-01

    One of Daniel Hogan's lasting impacts on international demography community comes through his advocacy for studying bidirectional relationships between environment and demography, particularly migration. We build on his holistic approach to mobility and examine dynamic changes in land use and migration among small farm families in Altamira, Pará, Brazil. We find that prior area in either pasture or perennials promotes out-migration of adult children, but that out-migration is not directly associated with land-use change. In contrast to early formulations of household life cycle models that argued that aging parents would decrease productive land use as children left the farm, we find no effect of out-migration of adult children on land-use change. Instead, remittances facilitate increases in area in perennials, a slower to pay off investment that requires scarce capital, but in pasture. While remittances are rare, they appear to permit sound investments in the rural milieu and thus to slow rural exodus and the potential consolidation of land into large holdings. We would do well to promote the conditions that allow them to be sent and to be used productively to keep families on the land to avoid the specter of extensive deforestation for pasture followed by land consolidation.

  4. The Mexico greenhouse gases emissions inventory: Results and methodology contributions on agriculture and land use change

    SciTech Connect

    Ruiz-Suarez, L.G.; Gonzalez, E.; Masera, O.

    1996-12-31

    The 1990 Preliminary Greenhouse Gases Emissions Inventory was released in October 1995. It was carried out with sponsorship of the US CSSP and UNEP. It was the product of a partnership between government and academic institutions. Total emissions of CO{sub 2} are 433,721 Gg. Land use change emissions of CO{sub 2} are 111,784 Gg which accounts for 25.8% of the national total. Methane is the second largest greenhouse gas, 3,801 Gg. When its warming potential is accounted for, it is equivalent to 18% of total greenhouse gases emissions. Livestock is the source of 51.3% of these emissions. Methane emissions from cattle and CO{sub 2} emissions from land use change are strongly associated. Besides the results on emission estimates, the inventory work allowed them to use and to improve on IPCC methodologies. Serious miscalculations may result from straightforward application of Tier 1 or even and even of Tier 2 IPPC methodologies for methane emissions from cattle. The need for nation specific forest categories and for more detailed information on the dynamics of land use change was shown. An analysis of emission trends shows the possibility of associated mitigation options for methane and CO{sub 2} from these two sources. A comparative analysis for mitigation potential of methane emissions from large and small scale cattle raising is under way.

  5. Agriculture, land use, and commercial biomass energy

    SciTech Connect

    Edmonds, J.A.; Wise, M.A.; Sands, R.D.; Brown, R.A.; Kheshgi, H.

    1996-06-01

    In this paper we have considered commercial biomass energy in the context of overall agriculture and land-use change. We have described a model of energy, agriculture, and land-use and employed that model to examine the implications of commercial biomass energy or both energy sector and land-use change carbon emissions. In general we find that the introduction of biomass energy has a negative effect on the extent of unmanaged ecosystems. Commercial biomass introduces a major new land use which raises land rental rates, and provides an incentive to bring more land into production, increasing the rate of incursion into unmanaged ecosystems. But while the emergence of a commercial biomass industry may increase land-use change emissions, the overall effect is strongly to reduce total anthropogenic carbon emissions. Further, the higher the rate of commercial biomass energy productivity, the lower net emissions. Higher commercial biomass energy productivity, while leading to higher land-use change emissions, has a far stronger effect on fossil fuel carbon emissions. Highly productive and inexpensive commercial biomass energy technologies appear to have a substantial depressing effect on total anthropogenic carbon emissions, though their introduction raises the rental rate on land, providing incentives for greater rates of deforestation than in the reference case.

  6. Emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, land-use change, and forestry in the Gambia.

    PubMed

    Jallow, B P

    1995-01-01

    The Gambia has successfully completed a national greenhouse gas emissions inventory based on the results of a study funded by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)/Global Environment Facility (GEF) Country Case Study Program. The concepts of multisectoral, multidisciplinary, and interdisciplinary collaboration were most useful in the preparation of this inventory. New data were gathered during the study period, some through regional collaboration with institutions such as Environment and Development in the Third World (ENDA-TM) Energy Program and the Ecological Monitoring Center in Dakar, Senegal, and some through national surveys and the use of remote sensing techniques, as in the Bushfires Survey. Most of the data collected are used in this paper. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/International Energy Agency (IPCC/OECD/IEA) methodology is used to calculate greenhouse gas emissions. Many of the default data in the IPCC/OECD/IEA methodology have also been used. Overall results indicate that in the biomass sectors (agriculture, forestry, and land-use change) carbon dioxide (CO2) is emitted most, with a total of 1.7 Tg. This is followed by methane (CH4), 22.3 Gg; carbon monoxide (CO), 18.7 Gg; nitrogen oxides (NOx), 0.3 Gg; and nitrous oxide (N2O), 0.014 Gg. The Global Warming Potential (GWP) was used as an index to describe the relative effects of the various gases reported here. Based on the emissions in The Gambia in 1993, it was found that CO2 will contribute 75%, CH4 about 24.5%, and N2O 0.2% of the warming expected in the 100-year period beginning in 1993. The results in this analysis are limited by the shortcomings of the IPCC/OECD/IEA methodology and scarce national data. Because the methodology was developed outside of the developing world, most of its emissions factors and coefficients were developed and tested in environments that are very different from The Gambia. This is likely

  7. Evaluating the impacts of land use changes on hydrologic responses in the agricultural regions of Michigan and Wisconsin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nejadhashemi, A. P.; Wardynski, B. J.; Munoz, J. D.

    2011-04-01

    Hydrologic fluxes in the Great Lakes region have been altered relative to pre-settlement conditions in response to major land use changes during the past 150 yr. Land surface characteristics and processes including leaf area index, roughness, albedo, soil moisture, and rates of momentum, energy and water vapor exchange are strongly influenced by land use. Changes in land use including urbanization and de(/re)forestation continue to affect the nature and magnitude of groundwater - surface water interactions and water availability influencing ecosystems and their services. One of the goals of the present work is to develop a baseline scenario relative to which the impacts of land use changes on hydrological and environmental processes can be evaluated. In addition, the study can help in quantifying the potential impacts of future projected changes in land use in order to mitigate the negative impacts of these changes on goods and services of value to society. The present study explores the relationship between land use changes and hydrologic indicators within the agricultural regions of Michigan and Wisconsin. Two sets of land use data, the circa 1800 County Base and the 2001 National Land Cover Dataset, were used to setup the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. First, sensitivity analyses were performed both based on pre-settlement and current land use scenarios and the most sensitive parameters were identified. Then, the model was calibrated against measured daily stream flow data obtained from eight United States Geological Survey gauging stations. The impacts of land use changes were studied at three scales: subbasin-level, watershed-level, and basin-level. At the subbasin level, most of the hydrologic behavior can be described by percent change in land cover. At the watershed scale, significant differences were observed based on the long-term average hydrologic fluxes under the current and pre-settlement scenarios. In addition, an overall increase in

  8. Assessing the changes in land use and ecosystem services in an oasis agricultural region of Yanqi Basin, Northwest China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shuixian; Wu, Bin; Yang, Pengnian

    2014-12-01

    The Yanqi Basin, one of the most productive agricultural areas, has a high population density in Xinjiang, Northwest China. Land use changes, mainly driven by oasis expansion, significantly impact ecosystem services and functions, but these effects are difficult to quantify. The valuation of ecosystem services is important to clarify the ecological and environmental changes caused by agriculturalization of oasis. This study aimed to investigate variations in ecosystem services in response to land use changes during oasis agricultural expansion activities in the Yanqi Basin from 1964 to 2009. The methods used were based on formula of ecosystem service value (ESV) and ESV coefficients. Satellite data were combined with the ESV coefficients to quantify land use changes and ecosystem service changes in the study area. Sensitivity analysis determined the effect of manipulating the coefficients on the estimated values. The results show that the total ESVs in the Yanqi Basin were $1,674, $1,692, $1,471, $1,732, and $1,603 million in 1964, 1973, 1989, 1999, and 2009, respectively. The net deline in ESV was $71 million in the past 46 years, but the ESVs of each types of landscape changed significantly. The aggregated ESVs of water areas and wetlands were approximately 80 % of the total ESV. Water supply and waste treatment were the two largest service functions and contributed approximately 65 % of the total ESV. The estimated ESVs in this study were elastic with respect to the value coefficients. Therefore, the estimations were robust in spite of uncertainties on the value coefficients. These significant changes in land use occur within the entire basin over the study period. These changes cause environmental problems, such as land degradation, vegetation degeneracy, and changes in aquatic environment.

  9. From jhum to broom: Agricultural land-use change and food security implications on the Meghalaya Plateau, India.

    PubMed

    Behera, Rabi Narayan; Nayak, Debendra Kumar; Andersen, Peter; Måren, Inger Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Human population growth in the developing world drives land-use changes, impacting food security. In India, the dramatic change in demographic dynamics over the past century has reduced traditional agricultural land-use through increasing commercialization. Here, we analyze the magnitude and implications for the farming system by the introduction of cash-cropping, replacing the traditional slash and burn rotations (jhum), of the tribal people on the Meghalaya Plateau, northeast India, by means of agricultural census data and field surveys conducted in seven villages. Land-use change has brought major alterations in hill agricultural practices, enhanced cash-cropping, promoted mono-cropping, changed food consumption patterns, underpinned the emergence of a new food system, and exposed farmers and consumers to the precariousness of the market, all of which have both long- and short-term food security implications. We found dietary diversity to be higher under jhum compared to any of the cash-crop systems, and higher under traditional cash-cropping than under modern cash-cropping. PMID:26254789

  10. Analysis of agricultural land use change in the middle reach of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China.

    PubMed

    Fu, Li; Zhang, Lanhui; He, Chansheng

    2014-03-04

    The Heihe River Basin (HRB) is the second largest inland river basin in arid Northwest China. The expanding agricultural irrigation, growing industrialization, and increasing urban development in the middle reach have depleted much of the river flow to the lower reach, degrading the corresponding ecosystems. Since the enactment of the State Council of China's new HRB water allocation policy in 2000 tremendous land use and land cover (LULC) changes have taken place to reduce water consumption in the middle reach and deliver more water downstream. This paper analyzes LULC changes during the period of 2000-2009 to understand how the changing land use patterns have altered water resource dynamics in the region. Results, while yet to be further verified in the field, show that from 2000 to 2009, urban, agricultural land, rangeland, and forest areas have increased, and barren area has decreased. Within the cropland, rice (a high water consumption crop) planting area decreased, while corn and wheat (relatively lower water consumption crops) planting areas increased. These changes in land use patterns, especially in the agricultural zones, have ensured the discharge of the required amount of water to the lower reach.

  11. Effect of land use land cover change on soil erosion potential in an agricultural watershed.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Arabinda; Tiwari, Kamlesh N; Bhadoria, P B S

    2011-02-01

    Universal soil loss equation (USLE) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system to determine the influence of land use and land cover change (LUCC) on soil erosion potential of a reservoir catchment during the period 1989 to 2004. Results showed that the mean soil erosion potential of the watershed was increased slightly from 12.11 t ha(-1) year(-1) in the year 1989 to 13.21 t ha(-1) year(-1) in the year 2004. Spatial analysis revealed that the disappearance of forest patches from relatively flat areas, increased in wasteland in steep slope, and intensification of cultivation practice in relatively more erosion-prone soil were the main factors contributing toward the increased soil erosion potential of the watershed during the study period. Results indicated that transition of other land use land cover (LUC) categories to cropland was the most detrimental to watershed in terms of soil loss while forest acted as the most effective barrier to soil loss. A p value of 0.5503 obtained for two-tailed paired t test between the mean erosion potential of microwatersheds in 1989 and 2004 also indicated towards a moderate change in soil erosion potential of the watershed over the studied period. This study revealed that the spatial location of LUC parcels with respect to terrain and associated soil properties should be an important consideration in soil erosion assessment process.

  12. Land Use and Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Irwin, Daniel E.

    2004-01-01

    The overall purpose of this training session is to familiarize Central American project cooperators with the remote sensing and image processing research that is being conducted by the NASA research team and to acquaint them with the data products being produced in the areas of Land Cover and Land Use Change and carbon modeling under the NASA SERVIR project. The training session, therefore, will be both informative and practical in nature. Specifically, the course will focus on the physics of remote sensing, various satellite and airborne sensors (Landsat, MODIS, IKONOS, Star-3i), processing techniques, and commercial off the shelf image processing software.

  13. Alterations of hydraulic soil properties influenced by land-use changes and agricultural management systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weninger, Thomas; Kreiselmeier, Janis; Chandrasekhar, Parvathy; Jülich, Stefan; Schwärzel, Kai; Schwen, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    Estimation and modeling of soil water movement and the hydrologic balance of soils requires sound knowledge about hydraulic soil properties (HSP). The soil water characteristics, the hydraulic conductivity function and the pore size distribution (PSD) are commonly used instruments for the mathematical representation of HSP. Recent research highlighted the temporal variability of these functions caused by meteorological or land-use influences. State of the art modeling software for the continuous simulation of soil water movement uses a stationary approach for the HSP which means that their time dependent alterations and the subsequent effects on soil water balance is not considered. Mathematical approaches to describe the evolution of PSD are nevertheless known, but there is a lack of sound data basis for parameter estimation. Based on extensive field and laboratory measurements at 5 locations along a climatic gradient across Austria and Germany, this study will quantify short-term changes in HSP, detect driving forces and introduce a method to predict the effects of soil and land management actions on the soil water balance. Amongst several soil properties, field-saturated and unsaturated hydraulic conductivities will be determined using a hood infiltration experiments in the field as well as by evaporation and dewpoint potentiometer method in the lab. All measurements will be carried out multiple times over a span of 2 years which will allow a detailed monitoring of changes in HSP. Experimental sites where we expect significant inter-seasonal changes will be equipped with sensors for soil moisture and matric potential. The choice of experimental field sites follows the intention to involve especially the effects of tillage operations, different cultivation strategies, microclimatically effective structures and land-use changes. The international project enables the coverage of a broad range of soil types as well as climate conditions and hence will have broad

  14. Climate and agricultural land use change impacts on streamflow in the upper midwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, Satish C.; Kessler, Andrew C.; Brown, Melinda K.; Zvomuya, Francis

    2015-07-01

    Increased streamflow and its associated impacts on water quality have frequently been linked to changes in land use and land cover (LULC) such as tile drainage, cultivation of prairies, and increased adoption of soybeans (Glycine max) in modern day cropping systems. This study evaluated the relative importance of changes in precipitation and LULC on streamflow in 29 Hydrologic Unit Code 008 watersheds in the upper midwestern United States. The evaluation was done by statistically testing the changes in slope and intercept of the relationships between ln(annual streamflow) versus annual precipitation for the periods prior to 1975 (prechange period) and after 1976 (postchange period). A significant shift either in slope or intercept of these relationships was assumed to be an indication of LULC changes whereas a lack of significant shift suggested a single relationship driven by precipitation. All 29 watersheds showed no statistical difference in slope or intercept of the relationships between the two periods. However, a simpler model that kept the slope constant for the two periods showed a slight upward shift in the intercept value for 10 watersheds in the postchange period. A comparison of 5 year moving averages also revealed that the increased streamflows in the postchange period are mainly due to an increase in precipitation. Minimal or the lack of LULC change impact on streamflow results from comparable evapotranspiration in the two time periods. We also show how incorrect assumptions in previously published studies minimized precipitation change impacts and heightened the LULC change impacts on streamflows.

  15. Land cover, land use, and climate change impacts on agriculture in southern Vietnam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kontgis, Caitlin

    Global environmental change is rapidly changing the surface of the Earth in varied and irrevocable ways. Across the world, land cover and land use have been altered to accommodate the needs of expanding populations, and climate change has required plant, animal, and human communities to adapt to novel climates. These changes have created unprecedented new ecosystems that affect the planet in ways that are not fully understood and difficult to predict. Of utmost concern is food security, and whether agro-ecosystems will adapt and respond to widespread changes so that growing global populations can be sustained. To understand how one staple food crop, rice, responds to global environmental change in southern Vietnam, this dissertation aims to accomplish three main tasks: (1) quantify the rate and form of urban and peri-urban expansion onto cropland using satellite imagery and demographic data, (2) track changes to annual rice paddy harvests using time series satellite data, and (3) model the potential effects of climate change on rice paddies by incorporating farmer interview data into a crop systems model. The results of these analyses show that the footprint of Ho Chi Minh City grew nearly five times between 1990 and 2012. Mismatches between urban development and population growth suggest that peri-urbanization is driven by supply-side investment, and that much of this form of land expansion has occurred near major transit routes. In the nearby Mekong River Delta, triple-cropped rice paddy area doubled between 2000 and 2010, from one-third to two-thirds of rice fields, while paddy area expanded by about 10%. These results illustrate the intensification of farming practices since Vietnam liberalized its economy, yet it is not clear whether such practices are environmentally sustainable long-term. Although triple-cropped paddy fields have expanded, future overall production is estimated to decline without the effects of CO2 fertilization. Temperatures are anticipated

  16. Adapting the Biome-BGC Model to New Zealand Pastoral Agriculture: Climate Change and Land-Use Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.

    2011-12-01

    We have adapted the Biome-BGC model to make climate change and land-use scenario estimates of New Zealand's pasture production in 2020 and 2050, with comparison to a 2005 baseline. We take an integrated modelling approach with the aim of enabling the model's use for policy assessments across broadly related issues such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, land-use change, and greenhouse gas projections. The Biome-BGC model is a biogeochemical model that simulates carbon, water, and nitrogen cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. We introduce two new 'ecosystems', sheep/beef and dairy pasture, within the existing structure of the Biome-BGC model and calibrate its ecophysiological parameters against pasture clipping data from diverse sites around New Zealand to form a baseline estimate of total New Zealand pasture production. Using downscaled AR4 climate projections, we construct mid- and upper-range climate change scenarios in 2020 and 2050. We produce land-use change scenarios in the same years by combining the Biome-BGC model with the Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model. The LURNZ model uses econometric approaches to predict future land-use change driven by changes in net profits driven by expected pricing, including the introduction of an emission trading system. We estimate the relative change in national pasture production from our 2005 baseline levels for both sheep/beef and dairy systems under each scenario.

  17. Soil microbial community response to land use change in an agricultural landscape of western Kenya.

    PubMed

    Bossio, D A; Girvan, M S; Verchot, L; Bullimore, J; Borelli, T; Albrecht, A; Scow, K M; Ball, A S; Pretty, J N; Osborn, A M

    2005-01-01

    Tropical agroecosystems are subject to degradation processes such as losses in soil carbon, nutrient depletion, and reduced water holding capacity that occur rapidly resulting in a reduction in soil fertility that can be difficult to reverse. In this research, a polyphasic methodology has been used to investigate changes in microbial community structure and function in a series of tropical soils in western Kenya. These soils have different land usage with both wooded and agricultural soils at Kakamega and Ochinga, whereas at Ochinga, Leuro, Teso, and Ugunja a replicated field experiment compared traditional continuous maize cropping against an improved N-fixing fallow system. For all sites, principal component analysis of 16S rRNA gene denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) profiles revealed that soil type was the key determinant of total bacterial community structure, with secondary variation found between wooded and agricultural soils. Similarly, phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis also separated wooded from agricultural soils, primarily on the basis of higher abundance of monounsaturated fatty acids, anteiso- and iso-branched fatty acids, and methyl-branched fatty acids in the wooded soils. At Kakamega and Ochinga wooded soils had between five 5 and 10-fold higher levels of soil carbon and microbial biomass carbon than agricultural soils from the same location, whereas total enzyme activities were also lower in the agricultural sites. Soils with woody vegetation had a lower percentage of phosphatase activity and higher cellulase and chitinase activities than the agricultural soils. BIOLOG analysis showed woodland soils to have the greatest substrate diversity. Throughout the study the two functional indicators (enzyme activity and BIOLOG), however, showed lower specificity with respect to soil type and land usage than did the compositional indicators (DGGE and PLFA). In the field experiment comparing two types of maize cropping, both the maize yields

  18. Modelling the Impact of Land Use Change on Water Quality in Agricultural Catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnes, P. J.; Heathwaite, A. L.

    1997-03-01

    Export coefficient modelling was used to model the impact of agriculture on nitrogen and phosphorus loading on the surface waters of two contrasting agricultural catchments. The model was originally developed for the Windrush catchment where the highly reactive Jurassic limestone aquifer underlying the catchment is well connected to the surface drainage network, allowing the system to be modelled using uniform export coefficients for each nutrient source in the catchment, regardless of proximity to the surface drainage network. In the Slapton catchment, the hydrological pathways are dominated by surface and lateral shallow subsurface flow, requiring modification of the export coefficient model to incorporate a distance-decay component in the export coefficients. The modified model was calibrated against observed total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads delivered to Slapton Ley from inflowing streams in its catchment. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to isolate the key controls on nutrient export in the modified model. The model was validated against long-term records of water quality, and was found to be accurate in its predictions and sensitive to both temporal and spatial changes in agricultural practice in the catchment. The model was then used to forecast the potential reduction in nutrient loading on Slapton Ley associated with a range of catchment management strategies. The best practicable environmental option (BPEO) was found to be spatial redistribution of high nutrient export risk sources to areas of the catchment with the greatest intrinsic nutrient retention capacity.

  19. Detecting agricultural to urban land use change from multi-temporal MSS digital data. [Salt Lake County, Utah

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ridd, M. K.; Merola, J. A.; Jaynes, R. A.

    1983-01-01

    Conversion of agricultural land to a variety of urban uses is a major problem along the Wasatch Front, Utah. Although LANDSAT MSS data is a relatively coarse tool for discriminating categories of change in urban-size plots, its availability prompts a thorough test of its power to detect change. The procedures being applied to a test area in Salt Lake County, Utah, where the land conversion problem is acute are presented. The identity of land uses before and after conversion was determined and digital procedures for doing so were compared. Several algorithms were compared, utilizing both raw data and preprocessed data. Verification of results involved high quality color infrared photography and field observation. Two data sets were digitally registered, specific change categories internally identified in the software, results tabulated by computer, and change maps printed at 1:24,000 scale.

  20. Water Quality Response to Changes in Agricultural Land Use Practices at Headwater Streams in Georgia

    EPA Science Inventory

    Poorly managed agricultural watersheds may be one of the most important contributors to high levels of bacterial and sediment loadings in surface waters. We investigated two cattle farms with differing management schemes to compare how physicochemical and meteorological parameter...

  1. Changes in Land Use and Soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paz-González, A.; Tarquis, A.; de Abreu, C. A.; Olechko, K.; Sáa, A.; Gobin, A.; Gómez, J. A.; Kutilek, M.

    2012-04-01

    Land use change is one of the main drivers of many processes of environmental change, as it influences basic resources of the landscape including the soil. Poor land management can rapidly deteriorate vast amounts of land, which frequently becomes a major threat to rural subsistence in many developing countries. Conversely, impact of land use changes on soil also can occur so unnoticed that land managers hardly contemplate initiating ameliorative measures. Subsequently, changes in land use affect soil properties and processes at a variety of scales. For example, forest conversion to cropland and reduction of tillage intensity can prevail as main changes of land use in some regions, whereas abandon of agricultural fields can be a major concern in other regions. In non-agricultural context, changes of land use of major interest are driven by urbanization, landscaping, engineering, mining, contamination, etc. Disturbed soils are not necessarily lost to agriculture, forestry, amenity or other alternative uses. Knowledge and understanding of soil properties and processes ensures remediation or reclamation of disturbed or damaged soils. Therefore, we focus mainly on how soil properties and processes can be managed and controlled to mitigate the impact of changes in land use. Moreover, land use changes occur at different spatial and temporal scales. Currently, the most promising approaches to evaluate the complex interaction between land use and soil heterogeneity at various scales apply advanced statistical and mathematical methods.

  2. Agriculture and land use issues

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Large-scale biofuels development as a source of renewable energy will shift current dynamics in the agricultural sector that deliver food, feed, and fiber. This chapter examines the potential for modern agriculture to support a biofuels industry without comprimising its critical role for delivering ...

  3. Hotspots of land use change in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuemmerle, Tobias; Levers, Christian; Erb, Karlheinz; Estel, Stephan; Jepsen, Martin R.; Müller, Daniel; Plutzar, Christoph; Stürck, Julia; Verkerk, Pieter J.; Verburg, Peter H.; Reenberg, Anette

    2016-06-01

    Assessing changes in the extent and management intensity of land use is crucial to understanding land-system dynamics and their environmental and social outcomes. Yet, changes in the spatial patterns of land management intensity, and thus how they might relate to changes in the extent of land uses, remains unclear for many world regions. We compiled and analyzed high-resolution, spatially-explicit land-use change indicators capturing changes in both the extent and management intensity of cropland, grazing land, forests, and urban areas for all of Europe for the period 1990–2006. Based on these indicators, we identified hotspots of change and explored the spatial concordance of area versus intensity changes. We found a clear East–West divide with regard to agriculture, with stronger cropland declines and lower management intensity in the East compared to the West. Yet, these patterns were not uniform and diverging patterns of intensification in areas highly suitable for farming, and disintensification and cropland contraction in more marginal areas emerged. Despite the moderate overall rates of change, many regions in Europe fell into at least one land-use change hotspot during 1990–2006, often related to a spatial reorganization of land use (i.e., co-occurring area decline and intensification or co-occurring area increase and disintensification). Our analyses highlighted the diverse spatial patterns and heterogeneity of land-use changes in Europe, and the importance of jointly considering changes in the extent and management intensity of land use, as well as feedbacks among land-use sectors. Given this spatial differentiation of land-use change, and thus its environmental impacts, spatially-explicit assessments of land-use dynamics are important for context-specific, regionalized land-use policy making.

  4. Hotspots of land use change in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuemmerle, Tobias; Levers, Christian; Erb, Karlheinz; Estel, Stephan; Jepsen, Martin R.; Müller, Daniel; Plutzar, Christoph; Stürck, Julia; Verkerk, Pieter J.; Verburg, Peter H.; Reenberg, Anette

    2016-06-01

    Assessing changes in the extent and management intensity of land use is crucial to understanding land-system dynamics and their environmental and social outcomes. Yet, changes in the spatial patterns of land management intensity, and thus how they might relate to changes in the extent of land uses, remains unclear for many world regions. We compiled and analyzed high-resolution, spatially-explicit land-use change indicators capturing changes in both the extent and management intensity of cropland, grazing land, forests, and urban areas for all of Europe for the period 1990-2006. Based on these indicators, we identified hotspots of change and explored the spatial concordance of area versus intensity changes. We found a clear East-West divide with regard to agriculture, with stronger cropland declines and lower management intensity in the East compared to the West. Yet, these patterns were not uniform and diverging patterns of intensification in areas highly suitable for farming, and disintensification and cropland contraction in more marginal areas emerged. Despite the moderate overall rates of change, many regions in Europe fell into at least one land-use change hotspot during 1990-2006, often related to a spatial reorganization of land use (i.e., co-occurring area decline and intensification or co-occurring area increase and disintensification). Our analyses highlighted the diverse spatial patterns and heterogeneity of land-use changes in Europe, and the importance of jointly considering changes in the extent and management intensity of land use, as well as feedbacks among land-use sectors. Given this spatial differentiation of land-use change, and thus its environmental impacts, spatially-explicit assessments of land-use dynamics are important for context-specific, regionalized land-use policy making.

  5. Modeling land-use change

    SciTech Connect

    1995-12-31

    Tropical land-use change is generally considered to be the greatest net contributor of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere after fossil-fuel burning. However, estimates vary widely, with one major cause of variation being that terrestrial ecosystems are both a source and a sink for carbon. This article describes two spatially explicit models which simulate rates and patterns of tropical land-use change: GEOMOD1, based on intuitive assumptions about how people develop land over time, and GEOMOD2, based on a statistical analysis of how people have actually used the land. The models more closely estimate the connections between atmospheric carbon dioxide, deforestation, and other land use changes.

  6. Mapping Agricultural Land-Use Change in the U.S. 2008-2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lark, T.; Salmon, M.; Gibbs, H.

    2014-12-01

    Cultivation of corn and soybeans in the United States reached record levels following the biofuels boom of the late 2000s. Debate churns about whether expansion of these crops caused conversion of carbon-rich natural ecosystems or instead replaced other crops on existing fields. Here we describe a novel trajectory-based methodology for analyzing satellite-derived land cover products that enables integration of all available and intermediate-year data to improve consistency across data sources, time, and geographic boundaries. Using this approach, we track crop-specific expansion pathways across the conterminous U.S., 2008-2012, and identify the types, amount, and locations of all land converted to and from cropland. We find total cropland area increased by a net of 3 million acres over the study period, with gross land conversion to cropland 2.5 times greater than net expansion. Grasslands were the source of 77% of all new cropland, and we estimate 1.6 million acres (22%) were virgin grasslands that had not been previously planted or plowed. Corn was the most common crop planted directly on new land, as well as the largest indirect contributor to change through its displacement of other crops. Results identify holes in federal policies including improper enforcement of the Renewable Fuels Standard and insufficient coverage of recent Farm Bill provisions, suggesting current implementations of federal policies are likely insufficient to protect remaining grassland habitat.

  7. A method for calculating a land-use change carbon footprint (LUC-CFP) for agricultural commodities - applications to Brazilian beef and soy, Indonesian palm oil.

    PubMed

    Persson, U Martin; Henders, Sabine; Cederberg, Christel

    2014-11-01

    The world's agricultural system has come under increasing scrutiny recently as an important driver of global climate change, creating a demand for indicators that estimate the climatic impacts of agricultural commodities. Such carbon footprints, however, have in most cases excluded emissions from land-use change and the proposed methodologies for including this significant emissions source suffer from different shortcomings. Here, we propose a new methodology for calculating land-use change carbon footprints for agricultural commodities and illustrate this methodology by applying it to three of the most prominent agricultural commodities driving tropical deforestation: Brazilian beef and soybeans, and Indonesian palm oil. We estimate land-use change carbon footprints in 2010 to be 66 tCO2 /t meat (carcass weight) for Brazilian beef, 0.89 tCO2 /t for Brazilian soybeans, and 7.5 tCO2 /t for Indonesian palm oil, using a 10 year amortization period. The main advantage of the proposed methodology is its flexibility: it can be applied in a tiered approach, using detailed data where it is available while still allowing for estimation of footprints for a broad set of countries and agricultural commodities; it can be applied at different scales, estimating both national and subnational footprints; it can be adopted to account both for direct (proximate) and indirect drivers of land-use change. It is argued that with an increasing commercialization and globalization of the drivers of land-use change, the proposed carbon footprint methodology could help leverage the power needed to alter environmentally destructive land-use practices within the global agricultural system by providing a tool for assessing the environmental impacts of production, thereby informing consumers about the impacts of consumption and incentivizing producers to become more environmentally responsible. PMID:24838193

  8. A method for calculating a land-use change carbon footprint (LUC-CFP) for agricultural commodities - applications to Brazilian beef and soy, Indonesian palm oil.

    PubMed

    Persson, U Martin; Henders, Sabine; Cederberg, Christel

    2014-11-01

    The world's agricultural system has come under increasing scrutiny recently as an important driver of global climate change, creating a demand for indicators that estimate the climatic impacts of agricultural commodities. Such carbon footprints, however, have in most cases excluded emissions from land-use change and the proposed methodologies for including this significant emissions source suffer from different shortcomings. Here, we propose a new methodology for calculating land-use change carbon footprints for agricultural commodities and illustrate this methodology by applying it to three of the most prominent agricultural commodities driving tropical deforestation: Brazilian beef and soybeans, and Indonesian palm oil. We estimate land-use change carbon footprints in 2010 to be 66 tCO2 /t meat (carcass weight) for Brazilian beef, 0.89 tCO2 /t for Brazilian soybeans, and 7.5 tCO2 /t for Indonesian palm oil, using a 10 year amortization period. The main advantage of the proposed methodology is its flexibility: it can be applied in a tiered approach, using detailed data where it is available while still allowing for estimation of footprints for a broad set of countries and agricultural commodities; it can be applied at different scales, estimating both national and subnational footprints; it can be adopted to account both for direct (proximate) and indirect drivers of land-use change. It is argued that with an increasing commercialization and globalization of the drivers of land-use change, the proposed carbon footprint methodology could help leverage the power needed to alter environmentally destructive land-use practices within the global agricultural system by providing a tool for assessing the environmental impacts of production, thereby informing consumers about the impacts of consumption and incentivizing producers to become more environmentally responsible.

  9. Effects of institutional changes on land use: agricultural land abandonment during the transition from state-command to market-driven economies in post-Soviet Eastern Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prishchepov, Alexander V.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Baumann, Matthias; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Müller, Daniel

    2012-06-01

    Institutional settings play a key role in shaping land cover and land use. Our goal was to understand the effects of institutional changes on agricultural land abandonment in different countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union after the collapse of socialism. We studied ˜273 800 km2 (eight Landsat footprints) within one agro-ecological zone stretching across Poland, Belarus, Latvia, Lithuania and European Russia. Multi-seasonal Landsat TM/ETM + satellite images centered on 1990 (the end of socialism) and 2000 (one decade after the end of socialism) were used to classify agricultural land abandonment using support vector machines. The results revealed marked differences in the abandonment rates between countries. The highest rates of land abandonment were observed in Latvia (42% of all agricultural land in 1990 was abandoned by 2000), followed by Russia (31%), Lithuania (28%), Poland (14%) and Belarus (13%). Cross-border comparisons revealed striking differences; for example, in the Belarus-Russia cross-border area there was a great difference between the rates of abandonment of the two countries (10% versus 47% of abandonment). Our results highlight the importance of institutions and policies for land-use trajectories and demonstrate that radically different combinations of institutional change of strong institutions during the transition can reduce the rate of agricultural land abandonment (e.g., in Belarus and in Poland). Inversely, our results demonstrate higher abandonment rates for countries where the institutions that regulate land use changed and where the institutions took more time to establish (e.g., Latvia, Lithuania and Russia). Better knowledge regarding the effects of such broad-scale change is essential for understanding land-use change and for designing effective land-use policies. This information is particularly relevant for Northern Eurasia, where rapid land-use change offers vast opportunities for carbon balance and biodiversity

  10. Land Use Change In Australia's Tropical Savanna Woodlands: Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Deforestation And Conversion To Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hutley, L. B.; Bristow, M.; Beringer, J.; Livesley, S. L.; Arndt, S. K.

    2015-12-01

    Clearing and burning of tropical savanna leads to globally significant emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), although there is large uncertainty relating to the magnitude of this flux. Australia's tropical savannas are 12% of global savanna extent and are largely intact; however there is currently a focus on agricultural expansion across northern Australia involving clearing for primary production. Eddy covariance and soil chamber methods were used over almost 2 years to quantify CO2 and non-CO2 fluxes from savanna that was cleared and prepared for agriculture (CS). Fluxes from an uncleared site (UC) were also monitored. Carbon fluxes from both sites were similar (NEE -0.23 Mg C ha-1 month-1) for the 5.4 months prior to clearing, a period spanning the late dry to mid-wet season. Fluxes were monitored for a further 17 months through a dry-wet-dry climate cycle and phased land use change which included clearing and a debris curing phase, followed by burning and soil preparation for cropping. Over this period (excluding the managed fire), the CS site was a source of +0.43 Mg C ha-1 month-1 compared to a net sink at the UC site of -0.05 Mg C ha-1 month-1. Woody debris from clearing (30.9 Mg C ha-1) was removed from the site via burning in the late dry season and emission factors were used to calculate emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O which totalled 138.0 Mg CO2-e ha-1. Over the 17 months of monitoring this land transformation, emissions were +9.7 Mg CO2-e ha-1 month-1 compared to a sink of -0.17 Mg CO2-e from the UC site. Using these emissions and LUC scenarios at catchment to regional scales suggest proposed clearing for agriculture could significantly increase the region's fire-dominated GHG emissions. These data are essential for both land-atmosphere models as well as decision support tools that inform trade-offs between greenhouse gas accounting, conservation and development goals.

  11. Biodiversity evaluation in tropical agricultural systems - How will rubber cultivation and land use change effect species diversity in SW China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cotter, M.; Grenz, J.; Sauerborn, J.

    2012-04-01

    The Greater Mekong Subregion is a known hotspot of biodiversity, which faces drastic changes due to human impact particularly with regard to infrastructure and economy. Within the framework of the Sino-German research project "Living Landscapes China" (LILAC), we have developed a biodiversity evaluation tool based on the combination of approaches from landscape ecology with detailed empirical data on species diversity and habitat characteristics of tropical plant and arthropod communities in a Geographical Information System. We use field ecological data to assess different spatial and qualitative aspects of the diversity and spatial distribution of species throughout the research area, a watershed in south-western Yunnan province, PR China. In addition, scenarios on the impact of land use change have been analyzed and compared in order to highlight the implications these possible future scenarios would have on species diversity within the research area. The aim of the presented tool is to provide scientists and policy makers who have to evaluate the consequences of scenarios of future land use with information on the current and likely future state of biodiversity in their research area or administrative region. This will enable them to assess the likely impacts of land use changes on structural and ecological diversity and allow for informed land use planning. The methodology developed for this tool can also be applied outside of the Greater Mekong Subregion, as the model structure allows for an easy adaption to other research areas and challenges, be it oil palm production in Southeast Asia or small scale farming in central Africa or the Amazon basin.

  12. Agricultural peatland restoration: effects of land-use change on greenhouse gas (CO2 and CH4) fluxes in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.

    PubMed

    Knox, Sara Helen; Sturtevant, Cove; Matthes, Jaclyn Hatala; Koteen, Laurie; Verfaillie, Joseph; Baldocchi, Dennis

    2015-02-01

    Agricultural drainage of organic soils has resulted in vast soil subsidence and contributed to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta in California was drained over a century ago for agriculture and human settlement and has since experienced subsidence rates that are among the highest in the world. It is recognized that drained agriculture in the Delta is unsustainable in the long-term, and to help reverse subsidence and capture carbon (C) there is an interest in restoring drained agricultural land-use types to flooded conditions. However, flooding may increase methane (CH4) emissions. We conducted a full year of simultaneous eddy covariance measurements at two conventional drained agricultural peatlands (a pasture and a corn field) and three flooded land-use types (a rice paddy and two restored wetlands) to assess the impact of drained to flooded land-use change on CO2 and CH4 fluxes in the Delta. We found that the drained sites were net C and greenhouse gas (GHG) sources, releasing up to 341 g C m(-2) yr(-1) as CO2 and 11.4 g C m(-2) yr(-1) as CH4. Conversely, the restored wetlands were net sinks of atmospheric CO2, sequestering up to 397 g C m(-2) yr(-1). However, they were large sources of CH4, with emissions ranging from 39 to 53 g C m(-2) yr(-1). In terms of the full GHG budget, the restored wetlands could be either GHG sources or sinks. Although the rice paddy was a small atmospheric CO2 sink, when considering harvest and CH4 emissions, it acted as both a C and GHG source. Annual photosynthesis was similar between sites, but flooding at the restored sites inhibited ecosystem respiration, making them net CO2 sinks. This study suggests that converting drained agricultural peat soils to flooded land-use types can help reduce or reverse soil subsidence and reduce GHG emissions.

  13. Comment on "Climate and agricultural land use change impacts on streamflow in the upper midwestern United States" by Satish C. Gupta et al.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schilling, Keith E.

    2016-07-01

    Increasing precipitation and land use/land cover (LU/LC) change have contributed to increasing streamflow and base flow in many Midwestern rivers but the relative importance of causal factors is open to debate. The dominant LULC change in the agricultural Midwest is the emergence of soybean production that occurred in the mid- to late-20th Century that replaced many sod-based rotations and increased total row crop area devoted to annual maize and soybean crops. Increasing precipitation may be a more important factor for increasing total discharge whereas LULC changes contributed more to base flow changes.

  14. LCLUC as an entry point for transdisciplinary research--reflections from an agriculture land use change study in South Asia.

    PubMed

    Nagabhatla, Nidhi; Padmanabhan, Martina; Kühle, Peter; Vishnudas, Suma; Betz, Lydia; Niemeyer, Bastian

    2015-01-15

    This article highlights applied understanding of classifying earth imaging data for land cover land use change (LCLUC) information. Compared to the many previous studies of LCLUC, the present study is innovative in that it applied geospatial data, tools and techniques for transdisciplinary research. It contributes to a wider discourse on practical decision making for multi-level governance. Undertaken as part of the BioDIVA project, the research adopted a multi-tiered methodical approach across three key dimensions: socioecology as the sphere of interest, a transdisciplinary approach as the disciplinary framework, and geospatial analysis as the applied methodology. The area of interest was the agroecosystem of Wayanad district in Kerala, India (South Asia). The methodology was structured to enable analysis of multi-scalar and multi-temporal data, using Wayanad as a case study. Three levels of analysis included: District (Landsat TM-30m), Taluk or sub-district (ASTER-15m) and Village or Gram Panchayat (GeoEye-0.5m). Our hypothesis, that analyzing patterns of land use change is pertinent for up-to-date assessment of agroecosystem resources and their wise management is supported by the outcome of the multi-tiered geospatial analysis. In addition, two examples from the project that highlight the adoption of LCLUC by different disciplinary experts are presented. A sociologist assessed the land ownership boundary for a selected tribal community. A faunal ecologist used it to assess the effect of landscape structure on arthropods and plant groups in rice fields. Furthermore, the Google Earth interface was used to support the overall validation process. Our key conclusion was that a multi-level understanding of the causes, effects, processes and mechanisms that govern agroecosystem transformation requires close attention to spatial, temporal and seasonal dynamics, for which the incorporation of local knowledge and participation of local communities is crucial.

  15. LCLUC as an entry point for transdisciplinary research--reflections from an agriculture land use change study in South Asia.

    PubMed

    Nagabhatla, Nidhi; Padmanabhan, Martina; Kühle, Peter; Vishnudas, Suma; Betz, Lydia; Niemeyer, Bastian

    2015-01-15

    This article highlights applied understanding of classifying earth imaging data for land cover land use change (LCLUC) information. Compared to the many previous studies of LCLUC, the present study is innovative in that it applied geospatial data, tools and techniques for transdisciplinary research. It contributes to a wider discourse on practical decision making for multi-level governance. Undertaken as part of the BioDIVA project, the research adopted a multi-tiered methodical approach across three key dimensions: socioecology as the sphere of interest, a transdisciplinary approach as the disciplinary framework, and geospatial analysis as the applied methodology. The area of interest was the agroecosystem of Wayanad district in Kerala, India (South Asia). The methodology was structured to enable analysis of multi-scalar and multi-temporal data, using Wayanad as a case study. Three levels of analysis included: District (Landsat TM-30m), Taluk or sub-district (ASTER-15m) and Village or Gram Panchayat (GeoEye-0.5m). Our hypothesis, that analyzing patterns of land use change is pertinent for up-to-date assessment of agroecosystem resources and their wise management is supported by the outcome of the multi-tiered geospatial analysis. In addition, two examples from the project that highlight the adoption of LCLUC by different disciplinary experts are presented. A sociologist assessed the land ownership boundary for a selected tribal community. A faunal ecologist used it to assess the effect of landscape structure on arthropods and plant groups in rice fields. Furthermore, the Google Earth interface was used to support the overall validation process. Our key conclusion was that a multi-level understanding of the causes, effects, processes and mechanisms that govern agroecosystem transformation requires close attention to spatial, temporal and seasonal dynamics, for which the incorporation of local knowledge and participation of local communities is crucial. PMID

  16. Land use change and human health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patz, Jonathan A.; Norris, Douglas E.

    Disease emergence events have been documented following several types of land use change. This chapter reviews several health-relevant land use changes recognized today, including: 1) urbanization and urban sprawl; 2) water projects and agricultural development; 3) road construction and deforestation in the tropics; and 4) regeneration of temperate forests. Because habitat or climatic change substantially affects intermediate invertebrate hosts involved in many prevalent diseases, this chapter provides a basic description of vector-borne disease biology as a foundation for analyzing the effects of land use change. Urban sprawl poses health challenges stemming from heat waves exacerbated by the "urban heat island" effect, as well as from water contamination due to expanses of impervious road and concrete surfaces. Dams, irrigation and agricultural development have long been associated with diseases such as schistosomiasis and filariasis. Better management methods are required to address the trade-offs between expanded food production and altered habitats promoting deadly diseases. Deforestation can increase the nature and number of breeding sites for vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and onchocerciasis. Human host and disease vector interaction further increases risk, as can a change in arthropod-vector species composition.

  17. Agricultural Land Use classification from Envisat MERIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brodsky, L.; Kodesova, R.

    2009-04-01

    This study focuses on evaluation of a crop classification from middle-resolution images (Envisat MERIS) at national level. The main goal of such Land Use product is to provid spatial data for optimisation of monitoring of surface and groundwater pollution in the Czech Republic caused by pesticides use in agriculture. As there is a lack of spatial data on the pesticide use and their distribution, the localisation can be done according to the crop cover on arable land derived from the remote sensing images. Often high resolution data are used for agricultural Land Use classification but only at regional or local level. Envisat MERIS data, due to the wide satellite swath, can be used also at national level. The high temporal and also spectral resolution of MERIS data has indisputable advantage for crop classification. Methodology of a pixel-based MERIS classification applying an artificial neural-network (ANN) technique was proposed and performed at a national level, the Czech Republic. Five crop groups were finally selected - winter crops, spring crops, summer crops and other crops to be classified. Classification models included a linear, radial basis function (RBF) and a multi-layer percepton (MLP) ANN with 50 networks tested in training. The training data set consisted of about 200 samples per class, on which bootstrap resampling was applied. Selection of a subset of independent variables (Meris spectral channels) was used in the procedure. The best selected ANN model (MLP: 3 in, 13 hidden, 3 out) resulted in very good performance (correct classification rate 0.974, error 0.103) applying three crop types data set. In the next step data set with five crop types was evaluated. The ANN model (MLP: 5 in, 12 hidden, 5 out) performance was also very good (correct classification rate 0.930, error 0.370). The study showed, that while accuracy of about 80 % was achieved at pixel level when classifying only three crops, accuracy of about 70 % was achieved for five crop

  18. Land-Use Change and Bioenergy

    SciTech Connect

    2011-07-01

    This publication describes the Biomass Program’s efforts to examine the intersection of land-use change and bioenergy production. It describes legislation requiring land-use change assessments, key data and modeling challenges, and the research needs to better assess and understand the impact of bioenergy policy on land-use decisions.

  19. Sustainable land use and agricultural soil

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Sustainable land use is the management of the natural environment and the built environment to conserve the resources that help to sustain the current human population of the area and that of future generations. This concept of sustainable land use requires an analysis of the existing resources, the...

  20. Developing a framework to assess the water quality and quantity impacts of climate change, shifting land use, and urbanization in a Midwestern agricultural landscape

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loheide, S. P.; Booth, E. G.; Kucharik, C. J.; Carpenter, S. R.; Gries, C.; Katt-Reinders, E.; Rissman, A. R.; Turner, M. G.

    2011-12-01

    Dynamic hydrological processes play a critical role in the structure and functioning of agricultural watersheds undergoing urbanization. Developing a predictive understanding of the complex interaction between agricultural productivity, ecosystem health, water quality, urban development, and public policy requires an interdisciplinary effort that investigates the important biophysical and social processes of the system. Our research group has initiated such a framework that includes a coordinated program of integrated scenarios, model experiments to assess the effects of changing drivers on a broad set of ecosystem services, evaluations of governance and leverage points, outreach and public engagement, and information management. Our geographic focus is the Yahara River watershed in south-central Wisconsin, which is an exemplar of water-related issues in the Upper Midwest. This research addresses three specific questions. 1) How do different patterns of land use, land cover, land management, and water resources engineering practices affect the resilience and sensitivity of ecosystem services under a changing climate? 2) How can regional governance systems for water and land use be made more resilient and adaptive to meet diverse human needs? 3) In what ways are regional human-environment systems resilient and in what ways are they vulnerable to potential changes in climate and water resources? A comprehensive program of model experiments and biophysical measurements will be utilized to evaluate changes in five freshwater ecosystem services (flood regulation, groundwater recharge, surface water quality, groundwater quality, and lake recreation) and five related ecosystem services (food crop yields, bioenergy crop yields, carbon storage in soil, albedo, and terrestrial recreation). Novel additions to existing biophysical models will allow us to simulate all components of the hydrological cycle as well as agricultural productivity, nitrogen and phosphorus transport

  1. Land Use and Land Cover Change

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, Daniel; Polsky, Colin; Bolstad, Paul V.; Brody, Samuel D.; Hulse, David; Kroh, Roger; Loveland, Thomas; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-05-01

    A contribution to the 3rd National Climate Assessment report, discussing the following key messages: 1. Choices about land-use and land-cover patterns have affected and will continue to affect how vulnerable or resilient human communities and ecosystems are to the effects of climate change. 2. Land-use and land-cover changes affect local, regional, and global climate processes. 3. Individuals, organizations, and governments have the capacity to make land-use decisions to adapt to the effects of climate change. 4. Choices about land use and land management provide a means of reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas levels.

  2. Investigation of environmental change pattern in Japan. Observation of present state of agricultural land-use by analysing LANDSAT data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maruyasu, T. (Principal Investigator); Hayashi, S.

    1977-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Species and ages of grasses in pastures were identified, and soils were classified into several types using LANDSAT data. This data could be used in a wide area of cultivation, reclamation, or management planning on agricultural land.

  3. FINAL REPORT: An Integrated Inter-temporal Analysis of Land Use Change in Forestry and Agriculture: An Assessment of the Influence of Technological Change on Carbon Sequestration and Land Use.

    SciTech Connect

    Brent Sohngen

    2008-10-30

    This project built a global land use model to examine the implications of land based carbon sequestration on land uses. The model also can be used to assess the costs of different land-based actions to reduce carbon emissions.

  4. Effects of Agricultural Land-Use Changes and Rainfall on Ground-Water Recharge in Central and West Maui, Hawai`i, 1926-2004

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Engott, John A.; Vana, Thomas T.

    2007-01-01

    Concern surrounding declines in ground-water levels and an increase in the chloride concentration of water pumped from wells in the Iao aquifer system on the Island of Maui has prompted an investigation into the long-term sustainability of current (2006) and future ground-water withdrawals. As part of this investigation, a water budget for central and west Maui was calculated from which (1) ground-water recharge was estimated for the period 1926-2004 and (2) the effects of agricultural land-use changes and drought were analyzed. Estimated mean ground-water recharge decreased 44 percent from 1979 to 2004 in central and west Maui. Reduction in agricultural irrigation, resulting from more efficient irrigation methods and a reduction in the acreage used for agriculture, is largely responsible for the declining recharge. Recently, periods of lower-than-average rainfall have further reduced recharge. During the period 1926-79, ground-water recharge averaged 693 Mgal/d, irrigation averaged 437 Mgal/d, and rainfall averaged 897 Mgal/d. During the period 2000-04, ground-water recharge averaged 391 Mgal/d, irrigation averaged 237 Mgal/d, and rainfall averaged 796 Mgal/d. Simulations of hypothetical future conditions indicate that a cessation of agriculture in central and west Maui would reduce mean ground-water recharge by 18 percent in comparison with current conditions, assuming that current climatic conditions are the same as the long-term-average conditions during the period 1926-2004. A period of drought identical to that of 1998-2002 would reduce mean recharge by 27 percent. Mean recharge would decrease by 46 percent if this drought were to occur after a cessation of agriculture in central and western Maui. Whereas droughts are transient phenomena, a reduction in agricultural irrigation is likely a permanent condition.

  5. Patterns of land use, extensification, and intensification of Brazilian agriculture.

    PubMed

    Dias, Lívia C P; Pimenta, Fernando M; Santos, Ana B; Costa, Marcos H; Ladle, Richard J

    2016-08-01

    Sustainable intensification of agriculture is one of the main strategies to provide global food security. However, its implementation raises enormous political, technological, and social challenges. Meeting these challenges will require, among other things, accurate information on the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural land use and yield. Here, we investigate historical patterns of agricultural land use (1940-2012) and productivity (1990-2012) in Brazil using a new high-resolution (approximately 1 km(2) ) spatially explicit reconstruction. Although Brazilian agriculture has been historically known for its extensification over natural vegetation (Amazon and Cerrado), data from recent years indicate that extensification has slowed down and was replaced by a strong trend of intensification. Our results provide the first comprehensive historical overview of agricultural land use and productivity in Brazil, providing clear insights to guide future territorial planning, sustainable agriculture, policy, and decision-making. PMID:27170520

  6. Patterns of land use, extensification, and intensification of Brazilian agriculture.

    PubMed

    Dias, Lívia C P; Pimenta, Fernando M; Santos, Ana B; Costa, Marcos H; Ladle, Richard J

    2016-08-01

    Sustainable intensification of agriculture is one of the main strategies to provide global food security. However, its implementation raises enormous political, technological, and social challenges. Meeting these challenges will require, among other things, accurate information on the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural land use and yield. Here, we investigate historical patterns of agricultural land use (1940-2012) and productivity (1990-2012) in Brazil using a new high-resolution (approximately 1 km(2) ) spatially explicit reconstruction. Although Brazilian agriculture has been historically known for its extensification over natural vegetation (Amazon and Cerrado), data from recent years indicate that extensification has slowed down and was replaced by a strong trend of intensification. Our results provide the first comprehensive historical overview of agricultural land use and productivity in Brazil, providing clear insights to guide future territorial planning, sustainable agriculture, policy, and decision-making.

  7. Assessment on the rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan using a process-based model and spatially explicit land-use change inventories - Part 2: Future potentials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.

    2014-08-01

    Future potentials of the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural lands in Japan were estimated using a simulation system we recently developed to simulate SOC stock change at country-scale under varying land-use change, climate, soil, and agricultural practices, in a spatially explicit manner. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2006 with historical inventories, and subsequently to 2020 with future scenarios of agricultural activity comprised of various agricultural policy targets advocated by the Japanese government. Furthermore, the simulation was run subsequently until 2100 while forcing no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity to investigate duration and course of SOC stock change at country scale. A scenario with an increased rate of organic carbon input to agricultural fields by intensified crop rotation in combination with the suppression of conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types was found to have a greater reduction of CO2 emission by enhanced soil carbon sequestration, but only under a circumstance in which the converted agricultural lands will become settlements that were considered to have a relatively lower rate of organic carbon input. The size of relative reduction of CO2 emission in this scenario was comparable to that in another contrasting scenario (business-as-usual scenario of agricultural activity) in which a relatively lower rate of organic matter input to agricultural fields was assumed in combination with an increased rate of conversion of the agricultural fields to unmanaged grasslands through abandonment. Our simulation experiment clearly demonstrated that net-net-based accounting on SOC stock change, defined as the differences between the emissions and removals during the commitment period and the emissions and removals during a previous period (base year or base period of Kyoto Protocol), can be largely influenced by variations in future climate. Whereas baseline-based accounting, defined

  8. Land Use and Land Cover Change Modeling Using Remote Sensing and Soft Computing Approach to Assess Sugarcane Expansion Impacts in Tropical Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vicente, L. E.; Koga-Vicente, A.; Friedel, M. J.; Victoria, D.; Zullo, J., Jr.; Gomes, D.; Bayma-Silva, G.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture is related with land-use/cover changes (LUCC) over large areas and, in recent years, increase in demand of ethanol fuel has been influence in expansion of areas occupied with corn and sugar cane, raw material for ethanol production. Nevertheless, there´s a concern regarding the impacts on food security, such as, decrease in areas planted with food crops. Considering that the LUCC is highly dynamic, the use of Remote Sensing is a tool for monitoring changes quickly and precisely in order to provide information for agricultural planning. In this work, Remote Sensing techniques were used to monitor the LUCC occurred in municipalities of São Paulo state- Brazil related with sugarcane crops expansion in order to (i) evaluate and quantify the previous land cover in areas of sugarcane crop expansion, and (ii) provide information to elaborate a future land cover scenario based on Self Organizing Map (SOM) approach. The land cover classification procedure was based on Landsat 5 TM images, obtained from the Global Land Survey. The Landsat images were then segmented into homogeneous objects, with represent areas on the ground with similar spatial and spectral characteristics. These objects are related to the distinct land cover types that occur in each municipality. The segmentation procedure resulted in polygons over the three time periods along twenty years (1990-2010). The land cover for each object was visually identified, based on its shape, texture and spectral characteristics. Land cover types considered were: sugarcane plantations, pasture lands, natural cover, forest plantation, permanent crop, short cycle crop, water bodies and urban areas. SOM technique was used to estimate the values for the future land cover scenarios for the selected municipalities, using the information of land change provided by the remote sensing and data from official sources.

  9. Determination of the effects of temporal change in urban and agricultural land uses as seen in the example of the town of Akhisar, using remote sensing techniques.

    PubMed

    Gulgun, Bahriye; Yörük, Ismail; Turkyilmaz, Bahar; Bolca, Mustafa; Güneş, Asli

    2009-03-01

    Today, as a result of erratic and unplanned urbanization, towns are rapidly becoming a mass of concrete and town-dwellers are suffocated by their busy and stressful professional lives. They feel a need for places where they can find breathing-space in their free time. Green areas within towns are important spaces where townspeople are able to carry out recreational activities. These places form a link between townspeople and nature. The importance of urban green areas is increasing with every passing day due to their social, psychological, ecological, physical and economic functions and their impact on the quality of towns. In this study it has been attempted to demonstrate the pressures of urban development on agricultural land by determining the changing land use situation over the years in the district of Akhisar. In this research, an aerial photograph from year 1939 and satellite images of the town from the years 2000 and 2007 were used. Land use changes in the region were determined spatially. As a result of this study, which aims to determine in which direction urbanization is progressing in the district, the importance of town planning emerges. This study will be informative for the local authorities in their future town planning projects. With its flat and almost flat fertile arable land, the district of Akhisar occupies an important position within the province of Manisa. From the point of view of olive production the region is one of Turkey's important centres. Fifty-five percent of the olive production in the province of Manisa is realized in Akhisar. However, the results of the present study show that while agricultural areas comprised 2.5805 km(2) in 1939, these had diminished to 1.5146 km(2) in the year 2000 and had diminished to 1.0762 km(2) in the year 2007 and residential area (dense) 0.449 km(2) occupied in 1939, in the year 2000 this had risen to 1.9472 and 2.3238 km(2) in the year 2007. This planless urbanization in the study area has led to

  10. LandCaRe DSS--an interactive decision support system for climate change impact assessment and the analysis of potential agricultural land use adaptation strategies.

    PubMed

    Wenkel, Karl-Otto; Berg, Michael; Mirschel, Wilfried; Wieland, Ralf; Nendel, Claas; Köstner, Barbara

    2013-09-01

    Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decision-making in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km(2)) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km(2)) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously

  11. Land Use Change Around Nature Reserves: Implications for Sustaining Biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, A. J.; Defries, R.; Curran, L.; Liu, J.; Reid, R.; Turner, B.

    2004-12-01

    The effects of land use change outside of reserves on biodiversity within reserves is not well studied. This paper draws on research from Yellowstone, East Africa, Yucatan, Borneo, and Wolong, China to examine land use effects on nature reserves. Objectives are: quantify rates of change in land use around reserves; examine consequences for biodiversity within the context of specific ecological mechanisms; and draw implications for regional management. Within each of the study regions, semi-natural habitats around nature reserves have been converted to agricultural, rural residential, or urban land uses. Rates vary from 0.2-0.4 %/yr in Yucatan, to 9.5 %/yr in Borneo. Such land use changes may be important because nature reserves are often parts of larger ecosystems that are defined by flows in energy, materials, and organisms. Land use outside of reserves may disrupt these flows and alter biodiversity within reserves. Ecological mechanisms that connect biodiversity to these land use changes include habitat size, ecological flows, crucial habitats, and edge effects. For example, the effective size of the East African study area has been reduced by 45% by human activities. Based on the species area relationship, this reduction in habitat area will lead to a loss of 14% of bird and mammal species. A major conclusion is that the viability of nature reserves can best be ensured by managing them in the context of the surrounding region. Knowledge of the ecological mechanisms by which land use influences nature reserves provides design criteria for this regional management.

  12. Analyzing simulated patterns of land use change

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, V.H.; O`Neill, R.V.; Southworth, F.; Loureiro, F.

    1992-07-01

    Land use change is one of major factors affecting global environmental conditions. Modeling land use change requires combining spatially-explicit ecological information with socioeconomic factors. A modeling system is being developed that integrates sub-models of human colonization with submodels of ecological interactions to estimate patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration and land management scenarios. The model projects maps of land use change that can be compared to remote sensing measures using spatial statistics. The simulation modeling system is being applied to the Brazilian state of Rondonia where deforestation has increased at a faster rate over the past two decades than anywhere else in the world. The model projections suggest that land management can both reduce carbon release and improve the length of time farmers are able to remain on the land. The model provides a tool to evaluate the spatial and temporal implications of various land management options.

  13. Analyzing simulated patterns of land use change

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, V.H.; O'Neill, R.V.; Southworth, F. ); Loureiro, F. )

    1992-01-01

    Land use change is one of major factors affecting global environmental conditions. Modeling land use change requires combining spatially-explicit ecological information with socioeconomic factors. A modeling system is being developed that integrates sub-models of human colonization with submodels of ecological interactions to estimate patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration and land management scenarios. The model projects maps of land use change that can be compared to remote sensing measures using spatial statistics. The simulation modeling system is being applied to the Brazilian state of Rondonia where deforestation has increased at a faster rate over the past two decades than anywhere else in the world. The model projections suggest that land management can both reduce carbon release and improve the length of time farmers are able to remain on the land. The model provides a tool to evaluate the spatial and temporal implications of various land management options.

  14. Land Use Change Modelling in R

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moulds, S.; Buytaert, W.

    2014-12-01

    Land use activities, through the provision of natural resources, are essential to human existence. In many regions land use change is degrading biodiversity and threatening the sustainability of ecosystem services upon which communities and livelihoods depend. Spatially explicit land use change models are widely used to understand and quantify key processes that affect land use change and make predictions about past and future change. These models typically include a module to estimate the suitability of different locations to particular land use types based on biophysical and socioeconomic predictor variables and a module to allocate change spatially. They are commonly implemented in languages such as C/C++ and Fortran and made available as standalone applications or through proprietary GIS. In many cases the models are released under closed source licences, limiting the reproducibility of scientific results and making model comparison difficult. This work presents a new R package providing methods and classes to support land use change modelling and model development and comparison within the open source R statistical computing environment. The package makes use of existing R implementations of methods such as random forests and recursive partitioning and regression trees to estimate location suitability, as well as providing methods for statistical model building and evaluation. Currently two spatial allocation methods are provided: the first based on the widely used and tested CLUE-S algorithm and the second a novel stochastic procedure developed for large scale applications. Some common tools for evaluating allocation results are implemented. It is hoped that the package will provide a framework for the development of new routines that can be incorporated into future releases of the code.

  15. Hydrology of a zero-order Southern Piedmont watershed through 45 years of changing agricultural land use. Part 1. Monthly and seasonal rainfall-runoff relationships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Endale, Dinku M.; Fisher, Dwight S.; Steiner, Jean L.

    2006-01-01

    Few studies have reported runoff from small agricultural watersheds over sufficiently long period so that the effect of different cover types on runoff can be examined. We analyzed 45-yrs of monthly and annual rainfall-runoff characteristics of a small (7.8 ha) zero-order typical Southern Piedmont watershed in southeastern United States. Agricultural land use varied as follows: 1. Row cropping (5-yrs); 2. Kudzu ( Pueraria lobata; 5-yrs); 3. Grazed kudzu and rescuegrass ( Bromus catharticus; 7-yrs); and 4. Grazed bermudagrass and winter annuals ( Cynodon dactylon; 28-yrs). Land use and rainfall variability influenced runoff characteristics. Row cropping produced the largest runoff amount, percentage of the rainfall partitioned into runoff, and peak flow rates. Kudzu reduced spring runoff and almost eliminated summer runoff, as did a mixture of kudzu and rescuegrass (KR) compared to row cropping. Peak flow rates were also reduced during the kudzu and KR. Peak flow rates increased under bermudagrass but were lower than during row cropping. A simple process-based 'tanh' model modified to take the previous month's rainfall into account produced monthly rainfall and runoff correlations with coefficient of determination ( R2) of 0.74. The model was tested on independent data collected during drought. Mean monthly runoff was 1.65 times the observed runoff. Sustained hydrologic monitoring is essential to understanding long-term rainfall-runoff relationships in agricultural watersheds.

  16. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #3: IPCC SPECIAL REPORT ON "LAND USE, LAND USE CHANGE, AND FORESTRY"

    EPA Science Inventory

    ORD is participating in the development of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on "Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry." Preparation of the Special Report was requested by the Conference of the Parties(COP) to the United Nations Framework Conve...

  17. Land-Use Change Trends in the Interior Lowland Ecoregion

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Varanka, Dalia E.; Shaver, David K.

    2007-01-01

    This report describes land-cover trends in the Interior River Lowland ecoregion, located primarily in southern Illinois and includes the confluence areas of the Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Illinois, and Wabash Rivers, and their tributaries. Land-cover change statistics were tabulated from forty 10 kilometers (km) by 10-km multi-spectral remote-sensing sample areas collected from 1973 to 2000 and classified into nine primary land-cover categories. The results indicated stable land use. Agricultural land use increased, but acreage was lost to urbanization, especially in the St. Louis area. Recreational and conservation land uses are underrepresented relative to population demand. Findings were comparable to results of other land use research.

  18. Impact of land use and land cover change on the water balance of a large agricultural watershed: Historical effects and future directions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schilling, Keith E.; Jha, Manoj K.; Zhang, You-Kuan; Gassman, Philip W.; Wolter, Calvin F.

    2008-07-01

    Over the last century, land use and land cover (LULC) in the United States Corn Belt region shifted from mixed perennial and annual cropping systems to primarily annual crops. Historical LULC change impacted the annual water balance in many Midwestern basins by decreasing annual evapotranspiration (ET) and increasing streamflow and base flow. Recent expansion of the biofuel industry may lead to future LULC changes from increasing corn acreage and potential conversion of the industry to cellulosic bioenergy crops of warm or cool season grasses. In this paper, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate potential impacts from future LULC change on the annual and seasonal water balance of the Raccoon River watershed in west-central Iowa. Three primary scenarios for LULC change and three scenario variants were evaluated, including an expansion of corn acreage in the watershed and two scenarios involving expansion of land using warm season and cool season grasses for ethanol biofuel. Modeling results were consistent with historical observations. Increased corn production will decrease annual ET and increase water yield and losses of nitrate, phosphorus, and sediment, whereas increasing perennialization will increase ET and decrease water yield and loss of nonpoint source pollutants. However, widespread tile drainage that exists today may limit the extent to which a mixed perennial-annual land cover would ever resemble pre-1940s hydrologic conditions. Study results indicate that future LULC change will affect the water balance of the watershed, with consequences largely dependent on the future LULC trajectory.

  19. Historic land use and land use changes in Lower Lusatia (Brandenburg, East Germany)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicolay, A.; Raab, A.; Raab, T. A.; Rösler, H.; Bönisch, E.

    2011-12-01

    In the apron of the active lignite open cast mine Jänschwalde (Lower Lusatia, Brandenburg, East Germany) geoscientists from the BTU Cottbus and archaeologists from the Brandenburgisches Landesamt für Denkmalpflege und Archäologisches Landesmuseum jointly investigate the impact of prehistoric and historic land use on the landscape. In the study area evidence of different land use and land use change is abundant. Amongst others, the presumably largest charcoal production area in Germany was found which was used from medieval to modern times. Charcoal burning and related activities certainly had tremendous environmental impacts. Archaeological surveys and excavations offer excellent outcrop situations. Fieldwork started in 2010 and concentrates on an area where aeolian drift and coversands are widespread. We assume that the formation of these aeolian coversands is the result of deforestation for charcoal burning and agricultural land use. To study pedology, geomorphology and landscape development on a landscape scale several up to 150 m long and 2 m depth cross-sections were carried out. Field methods include topographical surveying (by differential GPS) and the description of soils and sediments. Laboratory methods (e.g., soil texture, TOC, contents of pedogenic oxides) are carried out for soil characterization. In addition, for chronological information radiocarbon (14C) and optical stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating as well as dendrochronological age determinations are applied on selected materials. Our preliminary results from several cross-sections show that the landscape was used in different ways. Buried topsoil horizons of the Roman Imperial period (50-315 AD) and the Migration period (375-600 AD) are found. Moreover agricultural soil horizons from the Slavic medieval period (600-1200 AD) are present. The former topsoils are covered by 10-150 cm thick aeolian drift sands which can be differentiated by pedological and sedimentological means into two phases

  20. Groundwater Ecosystems Vary with Land Use across a Mixed Agricultural Landscape.

    PubMed

    Korbel, K L; Hancock, P J; Serov, P; Lim, R P; Hose, G C

    2013-01-01

    Changes in surface land use may threaten groundwater quality and ecosystem integrity, particularly in shallow aquifers where links between groundwater and surface activities are most intimate. In this study we examine the response of groundwater ecosystem to agricultural land uses in the shallow alluvial aquifer of the Gwydir River valley, New South Wales, Australia. We compared groundwater quality and microbial and stygofauna assemblages among sites under irrigated cropping, non-irrigated cropping and grazing land uses. Stygofauna abundance and richness was greatest at irrigated sites, with the composition of the assemblage suggestive of disturbance. Microbial assemblages and water quality also varied with land use. Our study demonstrates significant differences in the composition of groundwater ecosystems in areas with different surface land use, and highlights the utility of groundwater biota for biomonitoring, particularly in agricultural landscapes.

  1. Land Use and climate change interactions in tropical South America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swann, A. L. S.; Longo, M.; Knox, R. G.; Lee, E.; Moorcroft, P. R.

    2015-12-01

    Ongoing agricultural expansion in Amazonia and the surrounding areas of Brazil is expected to continue over the next several decades as global food demand increases. The transition of natural forest and savannah ecosystems to pastureland and agricultural crops is predicted to create warmer and drier atmospheric conditions than the native vegetation. Compounding this effect, climate change is likely to lead to reduced transpiration fluxes as plants become more water efficient under higher atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. Here we investigate the expected impacts of predicted future land use on the climate of South America as well as the potential impacts of increasing CO2. We find that the climate response to land use change generally consistent with expectations from previous global modeling simulations with drier conditions resulting from deforestation, however the direct changes in precipitation are relatively small (on order of a few percent). Local drying from land use change is driven primarily by decreases in evapo-transpiration associated with the loss of forest, and concomitant increases in runoff. Significant changes in convectively available potential energy and convective inhibition during the transition to the wet season indicate that the decrease in surface latent heat flux is indeed leading to a drier atmosphere, however these changes occur around a mean climatological state that is already very favorable for convection, and thus lead to relatively small changes in precipitation. The physiological effects of increasing CO2 alone also drive a reduction in precipitation, which is compounded by radiation-driven circulation changes. If these land use changes were to occur under a background state of drier conditions, such as those predicted for the future global climate model experiments, this additional atmospheric drying driven by land use change may be sufficient to decrease precipitation more substantially.

  2. Modeling socioeconomic and ecologic aspects of land-use change

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, V.H.; Pedlowski, M.A.; O'Neill, R.V.; Southworth, F.

    1992-01-01

    Land use change is one of the major factors affecting global environmental conditions. Prevalent types of land-use change include replacing forests with agriculture, mines or ranches; forest degradation from collection of firewood; and forest logging. A global effect of wide-scale deforestation is an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which may affect climate. Regional effects include loss of biodiversity and disruption of hydrologic regimes. Local effects include soil erosion, siltation and decreases in soil fertility, loss of extractive reserves, and disruption of indigenous people. Modeling land use change requires combining socioeconomic and ecological factors because socioeconomic forces frequently initiate land-use change and are affected by the subsequent ecological degradation. This paper describes a modeling system that integrates submodels of human colonization and impacts to estimate patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration and land use scenarios. Immigration which follows road building or paving is a major factor in the rapid deforestation of previously inaccessible areas. Roads facilitate colonization, allow access for large machines, and provide transportation routes for mort of raw materials and produce.

  3. Mapping of agricultural land use from ERTS-1 digital data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, A. D.; Max, G. A.; Peterson, G. W.

    1973-01-01

    A study area was selected in Lancaster and Lebanon Counties, two of the major agricultural counties in Pennsylvania. This area was delineated on positive transparencies on MSS data collected on October 11, 1972 (1080-15185). Channel seven was used to delineate general land forms, drainage patterns, water and urban areas. Channel five was used to delineate highway networks. These identifiable features were useful aids for locating areas on the computer output. Computer generated maps were used to delineate broad land use categories, such as forest land, agricultural land, urban areas and water. These digital maps have a scale of approximately 1:24,000 thereby allowing direct comparison with U.S.G.S. 7.5 minute quadrangle sheets. Aircraft data were used as a form of ground truth useful for the delineation of land use patterns.

  4. Automatic information extraction for land use and agricultural applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bond, A. D.; Thomas, D. T.

    1973-01-01

    Description of some current work in interpretation technique development for automatic computer-aided image information extraction related to various application areas, including land use mapping and agricultural survey and monitoring. In particular, the application of a fast template matching algorithm, employing the sequential similarity detection principle, to image registration, linear feature detection, and the extraction and enumeration of scene objects is discussed and illustrated.

  5. Interactive boundary delineation of agricultural lands using graphics workstations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cheng, Thomas D.; Angelici, Gary L.; Slye, Robert E.; Ma, Matt

    1992-01-01

    A review is presented of the computer-assisted stratification and sampling (CASS) system developed to delineate the boundaries of sample units for survey procedures. CASS stratifies the sampling units by land-cover and land-use type, employing image-processing software and hardware. This procedure generates coverage areas and the boundaries of stratified sampling units that are utilized for subsequent sampling procedures from which agricultural statistics are developed.

  6. The land use climate change energy nexus

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, Virginia H; Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Kline, Keith L

    2011-01-01

    Landscape ecology focuses on the spatial patterns and processes of ecological and human interactions. These patterns and processes are being altered both by changing human resource-management practices and changing climate conditions associated, in part, with increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Dominant resource extraction and land management activities involve energy, and the use of fossil energy is one of the key drivers behind increasing greenhouse gas emissions as well as land-use changes. Alternative energy sources (such as wind, solar, nuclear, and bioenergy) are being explored to reduce greenhouse gas emission rates. Yet, energy production, including alternative-energy options, can have a wide range of effects on land productivity, surface cover, albedo, and other factors that affect carbon, water and energy fluxes and, in turn, climate. Meanwhile, climate influences the potential output, relative efficiencies and sustainability of alternative energy sources. Thus climate change, energy choices, and land-use change are linked, and any analysis in landscape ecology that considers one of these factors should consider them all. This analysis explores the implications of those linkages and points out ecological patterns and processes that may be affected by these interactions.

  7. Agricultural land use mapping. [Pennsylvania, Montana, and Texas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcmurtry, G. J.; Petersen, G. W. (Principal Investigator); Wilson, A. D.

    1973-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Agricultural areas were selected or analysis in southeastern Pennsylvania, north central Montana, and southern Texas. These three sites represent a broad range of soils, soil parent materials, climate, modes of agricultural operation, crops, and field sizes. In each of these three sites, ERTS-1 digital data were processed to determine the feasibility of automatically mapping agricultural land use. In Pennsylvania, forest land, cultivated land, and water were separable within a 25,000 acre area. Four classes of water were also classified and identified, using ground truth. A less complex land use pattern was analyzed in Hill County, Montana. A land use map was prepared shown alternating patterns of summer fallow and stubble fields. The location of farmsteads could be inferred, along with that of a railroad line. A river and a creek flowing into the river were discernible. Six categories of water, related to sediment content and depth, were defined in the reservoir held by the Fresno dam. These classifications were completed on a 150 square mile area. Analysis of the data from Texas is in its formative stages. A test site has been selected and a brightness map has been produced.

  8. Elbe river flood peaks and postwar agricultural land use in East Germany.

    PubMed

    van der Ploeg, R R; Schweigert, P

    2001-12-01

    Collectivization of farmland since the 1950s has changed the agricultural land use in former East Germany. Single fields on the collective farms became increasingly large and were cultivated with increasingly heavy farm equipment. This led to large-scale physical degradation of arable soils, enhancing the formation of surface runoff in periods with prolonged and excessive precipitation. The extent to which this development may have affected the discharge behavior of the main East German river, the Elbe, has so far not been studied. We analyzed the flood peaks of the Elbe during the past century (1900-2000). The flood discharge behavior of the Elbe has apparently changed significantly since the 1950s. Although climate changes may be involved, we conclude that the Elbe flood peaks, recorded since 1950, are related to the changes in postwar agricultural land use in former East Germany. To restore the degraded farmland soils, a change in agricultural land use may be necessary.

  9. Evaluation of historical land cover, land use, and land-use change emissions in the GCAM integrated assessment model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Janetos, A. C.; Zhou, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate and energy policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. However, quantitative evaluation of these models has been somewhat limited for a variety of reasons, including data availability, data quality, and the inherent challenges in projections of societal values and decision-making. In this analysis, we identify and confront methodological challenges involved in evaluating the agriculture and land use component of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. GCAM then calculates both emissions from land-use practices, and long-term changes in carbon stocks in different land uses, thus providing simulation information that can be compared to observed historical data. In this work, we compare GCAM results, both in recent historic and future time periods, to historical data sets. We focus on land use, land cover, land-use change emissions, and albedo.

  10. Impact of land use and land cover change on the water balance of a large agricultural watershed: Historical effects and future directions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schilling, K.E.; Jha, M.K.; Zhang, Y.-K.; Gassman, P.W.; Wolter, C.F.

    2009-01-01

    Over the last century, land use and land cover (LULC) in the United States Corn Belt region shifted from mixed perennial and annual cropping systems to primarily annual crops. Historical LULC change impacted the annual water balance in many Midwestern basins by decreasing annual evapotranspiration (ET) and increasing streamflow and base flow. Recent expansion of the biofuel industry may lead to future LULC changes from increasing corn acreage and potential conversion of the industry to cellulosic bioenergy crops of warm or cool season grasses. In this paper, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate potential impacts from future LULC change on the annual and seasonal water balance of the Raccoon River watershed in west-central Iowa. Three primary scenarios for LULC change and three scenario variants were evaluated, including an expansion of corn acreage in the watershed and two scenarios involving expansion of land using warm season and cool season grasses for ethanol biofuel. Modeling results were consistent with historical observations. Increased corn production will decrease annual ET and increase water yield and losses of nitrate, phosphorus, and sediment, whereas increasing perennialization will increase ET and decrease water yield and loss of nonpoint source pollutants. However, widespread tile drainage that exists today may limit the extent to which a mixed perennial-annual land cover would ever resemble pre-1940s hydrologic conditions. Study results indicate that future LULC change will affect the water balance of the watershed, with consequences largely dependent on the future LULC trajectory. ?? 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

  11. Interpretation of Pennsylvania agricultural land use from ERTS-1 data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcmurtry, G. J.; Petersen, G. W. (Principal Investigator); Wilson, A. D.

    1974-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. To study the complex agricultural patterns in Pennsylvania, a portion of an ERTS scene was selected for detailed analysis. Various photographic products were made and were found to be only of limited value. This necessitated the digital processing of the ERTS data. Using an unsupervised classification procedure, it was possible to delineate the following categories: (1) forest land with a northern aspect, (2) forest land with a southern aspect, (3) valley trees, (4) wheat, (5) corn, (6) alfalfa, grass, pasture, (7) disturbed land, (8) builtup land, (9) strip mines, and (10) water. These land use categories were delineated at a scale of approximately 1:20,000 on the line printer output. Land use delineations were also made using the General Electric IMAGE 100 interactive analysis system.

  12. Impact of land use changes on surface warming in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Jingyong; Dong, Wenjie; Wu, Lingyun; Wei, Jiangfeng; Chen, Peiyan; Lee, Dong-Kyou

    2005-06-01

    Land use changes such as urbanization, agriculture, pasturing, deforestation, desertification and irrigation can change the land surface heat flux directly, and also change the atmospheric circulation indirectly, and therefore affect the local temperature. But it is difficult to separate their effects from climate trends such as greenhouse-gas effects. Comparing the decadal trends of the observation station data with those of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NNR) data provides a good method to separate the effects because the NNR is insensitive to land surface changes. The effects of urbanization and other land use changes over China are estimated by using the difference between the station and the NNR surface temperature trends. Our results show that urbanization and other land use changes may contribute to the observed 0.12°C (10yr)-1 increase for daily mean surface temperature, and the 0.20°C (10yr)-1 and 0.03°C (10 yr)-1 increases for the daily minimum and maximum surface temperatures, respectively. The urban heat island effect and the effects of other land-use changes may also play an important role in the diurnal temperature range change. The spatial pattern of the differences in trends shows a marked heterogeneity. The land surface degradation such as deforestation and desertification due to human activities over northern China, and rapidly-developed urbanization over southern China, may have mostly contributed to the increases at stations north of about 38°N and in Southeast China, respectively. Furthermore, the vegetation cover increase due to irrigation and fertilization may have contributed to the decreasing trend of surface temperature over the lower Yellow River Basin. The study illustrates the possible impacts of land use changes on surface temperature over China.

  13. Recent Land Use Change to Agriculture in the U.S. Lake States: Impacts on Cellulosic Biomass Potential and Natural Lands

    PubMed Central

    Mladenoff, David J.; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Johnson, Christopher P.; Rothstein, David E.

    2016-01-01

    Perennial cellulosic feedstocks may have potential to reduce life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by offsetting fossil fuels. However, this potential depends on meeting a number of important criteria involving land cover change, including avoiding displacement of agricultural production, not reducing uncultivated natural lands that provide biodiversity habitat and other valued ecosystem services, and avoiding the carbon debt (the amount of time needed to repay the initial carbon loss) that accompanies displacing natural lands. It is unclear whether recent agricultural expansion in the United States competes with lands potentially suited for bioenergy feedstocks. Here, we evaluate how recent land cover change (2008–2013) has affected the availability of lands potentially suited for bioenergy feedstock production in the U.S. Lake States (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan) and its impact on other natural ecosystems. The region is potentially well suited for a diversity of bioenergy production systems, both grasses and woody biomass, due to the widespread forest economy in the north and agricultural economy in the south. Based on remotely-sensed data, our results show that between 2008 and 2013, 836,000 ha of non-agricultural open lands were already converted to agricultural uses in the Lake States, a loss of nearly 37%. The greatest relative changes occurred in the southern half that includes some of the most diverse cultivable lands in the country. We use transition diagrams to reveal gross changes that can be obscured if only net change is considered. Our results indicate that expansion of row crops (corn, soybean) was responsible for the majority of open land loss. Even if recently lost open lands were brought into perennial feedstock production, there would a substantial carbon debt. This reduction in open land availability for biomass production is closing the window of opportunity to establish a sustainable cellulosic feedstock economy in the Lake States as

  14. Recent Land Use Change to Agriculture in the U.S. Lake States: Impacts on Cellulosic Biomass Potential and Natural Lands.

    PubMed

    Mladenoff, David J; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Johnson, Christopher P; Rothstein, David E

    2016-01-01

    Perennial cellulosic feedstocks may have potential to reduce life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by offsetting fossil fuels. However, this potential depends on meeting a number of important criteria involving land cover change, including avoiding displacement of agricultural production, not reducing uncultivated natural lands that provide biodiversity habitat and other valued ecosystem services, and avoiding the carbon debt (the amount of time needed to repay the initial carbon loss) that accompanies displacing natural lands. It is unclear whether recent agricultural expansion in the United States competes with lands potentially suited for bioenergy feedstocks. Here, we evaluate how recent land cover change (2008-2013) has affected the availability of lands potentially suited for bioenergy feedstock production in the U.S. Lake States (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan) and its impact on other natural ecosystems. The region is potentially well suited for a diversity of bioenergy production systems, both grasses and woody biomass, due to the widespread forest economy in the north and agricultural economy in the south. Based on remotely-sensed data, our results show that between 2008 and 2013, 836,000 ha of non-agricultural open lands were already converted to agricultural uses in the Lake States, a loss of nearly 37%. The greatest relative changes occurred in the southern half that includes some of the most diverse cultivable lands in the country. We use transition diagrams to reveal gross changes that can be obscured if only net change is considered. Our results indicate that expansion of row crops (corn, soybean) was responsible for the majority of open land loss. Even if recently lost open lands were brought into perennial feedstock production, there would a substantial carbon debt. This reduction in open land availability for biomass production is closing the window of opportunity to establish a sustainable cellulosic feedstock economy in the Lake States as

  15. Recent Land Use Change to Agriculture in the U.S. Lake States: Impacts on Cellulosic Biomass Potential and Natural Lands.

    PubMed

    Mladenoff, David J; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Johnson, Christopher P; Rothstein, David E

    2016-01-01

    Perennial cellulosic feedstocks may have potential to reduce life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by offsetting fossil fuels. However, this potential depends on meeting a number of important criteria involving land cover change, including avoiding displacement of agricultural production, not reducing uncultivated natural lands that provide biodiversity habitat and other valued ecosystem services, and avoiding the carbon debt (the amount of time needed to repay the initial carbon loss) that accompanies displacing natural lands. It is unclear whether recent agricultural expansion in the United States competes with lands potentially suited for bioenergy feedstocks. Here, we evaluate how recent land cover change (2008-2013) has affected the availability of lands potentially suited for bioenergy feedstock production in the U.S. Lake States (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan) and its impact on other natural ecosystems. The region is potentially well suited for a diversity of bioenergy production systems, both grasses and woody biomass, due to the widespread forest economy in the north and agricultural economy in the south. Based on remotely-sensed data, our results show that between 2008 and 2013, 836,000 ha of non-agricultural open lands were already converted to agricultural uses in the Lake States, a loss of nearly 37%. The greatest relative changes occurred in the southern half that includes some of the most diverse cultivable lands in the country. We use transition diagrams to reveal gross changes that can be obscured if only net change is considered. Our results indicate that expansion of row crops (corn, soybean) was responsible for the majority of open land loss. Even if recently lost open lands were brought into perennial feedstock production, there would a substantial carbon debt. This reduction in open land availability for biomass production is closing the window of opportunity to establish a sustainable cellulosic feedstock economy in the Lake States as

  16. Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate.

    PubMed

    Kalnay, Eugenia; Cai, Ming

    2003-05-29

    The most important anthropogenic influences on climate are the emission of greenhouse gases and changes in land use, such as urbanization and agriculture. But it has been difficult to separate these two influences because both tend to increase the daily mean surface temperature. The impact of urbanization has been estimated by comparing observations in cities with those in surrounding rural areas, but the results differ significantly depending on whether population data or satellite measurements of night light are used to classify urban and rural areas. Here we use the difference between trends in observed surface temperatures in the continental United States and the corresponding trends in a reconstruction of surface temperatures determined from a reanalysis of global weather over the past 50 years, which is insensitive to surface observations, to estimate the impact of land-use changes on surface warming. Our results suggest that half of the observed decrease in diurnal temperature range is due to urban and other land-use changes. Moreover, our estimate of 0.27 degrees C mean surface warming per century due to land-use changes is at least twice as high as previous estimates based on urbanization alone.

  17. Agricultural Land Use Determines the Trait Composition of Ground Beetle Communities.

    PubMed

    Hanson, Helena I; Palmu, Erkki; Birkhofer, Klaus; Smith, Henrik G; Hedlund, Katarina

    2016-01-01

    In order to improve biological control of agricultural pests, it is fundamental to understand which factors influence the composition of natural enemies in agricultural landscapes. In this study, we aimed to understand how agricultural land use affects a number of different traits in ground beetle communities to better predict potential consequences of land-use change for ecosystem functioning. We studied ground beetles in fields with different agricultural land use ranging from frequently managed sugar beet fields, winter wheat fields to less intensively managed grasslands. The ground beetles were collected in emergence tents that catch individuals overwintering locally in different life stages and with pitfall traps that catch individuals that could have a local origin or may have dispersed into the field. Community weighted mean values for ground beetle traits such as body size, flight ability and feeding preference were estimated for each land-use type and sampling method. In fields with high land-use intensity the average body length of emerging ground beetle communities was lower than in the grasslands while the average body length of actively moving communities did not differ between the land-use types. The proportion of ground beetles with good flight ability or a carnivorous diet was higher in the crop fields as compared to the grasslands. Our study highlights that increasing management intensity reduces the average body size of emerging ground beetles and the proportion of mixed feeders. Our results also suggest that the dispersal ability of ground beetles enables them to compensate for local management intensities.

  18. Attributing land-use change carbon emissions to exported biomass

    SciTech Connect

    Saikku, Laura; Soimakallio, Sampo; Pingoud, Kim

    2012-11-15

    In this study, a simple, transparent and robust method is developed in which land-use change (LUC) emissions are retrospectively attributed to exported biomass products based on the agricultural area occupied for the production. LUC emissions account for approximately one-fifth of current greenhouse gas emissions. Increasing agricultural exports are becoming an important driver of deforestation. Brazil and Indonesia are used as case studies due to their significant deforestation in recent years. According to our study, in 2007, approximately 32% and 15% of the total agricultural land harvested and LUC emissions in Brazil and Indonesia respectively were due to exports. The most important exported single items with regard to deforestation were palm oil for Indonesia and bovine meat for Brazil. To reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions effectively worldwide, leakage of emissions should be avoided. This can be done, for example, by attributing embodied LUC emissions to exported biomass products. With the approach developed in this study, controversial attribution between direct and indirect LUC and amortization of emissions over the product life cycle can be overcome, as the method operates on an average basis and annual level. The approach could be considered in the context of the UNFCCC climate policy instead of, or alongside with, other instruments aimed at reducing deforestation. However, the quality of the data should be improved and some methodological issues, such as the allocation procedure in multiproduct systems and the possible dilution effect through third parties not committed to emission reduction targets, should be considered. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer CO{sub 2} emissions from land use changes are highly important. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Attribution of land use changes for products is difficult. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Simple and robust method is developed to attribute land use change emissions.

  19. Modelling phosphorus loading and algal blooms in a Nordic agricultural catchment-lake system under changing land-use and climate.

    PubMed

    Couture, Raoul-Marie; Tominaga, Koji; Starrfelt, Jostein; Moe, S Jannicke; Kaste, Øyvind; Wright, Richard F

    2014-07-01

    A model network comprising climate models, a hydrological model, a catchment-scale model for phosphorus biogeochemistry, and a lake thermodynamics and plankton dynamics model was used to simulate phosphorus loadings, total phosphorus and chlorophyll concentrations in Lake Vansjø, Southern Norway. The model network was automatically calibrated against time series of hydrological, chemical and biological observations in the inflowing river and in the lake itself using a Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Climate projections from three global climate models (GCM: HadRM3, ECHAM5r3 and BCM) were used. The GCM model HadRM3 predicted the highest increase in temperature and precipitation and yielded the highest increase in total phosphorus and chlorophyll concentrations in the lake basin over the scenario period of 2031-2060. Despite the significant impact of climate change on these aspects of water quality, it is minimal when compared to the much larger effect of changes in land-use. The results suggest that implementing realistic abatement measures will remain a viable approach to improving water quality in the context of climate change.

  20. Modelling phosphorus loading and algal blooms in a Nordic agricultural catchment-lake system under changing land-use and climate.

    PubMed

    Couture, Raoul-Marie; Tominaga, Koji; Starrfelt, Jostein; Moe, S Jannicke; Kaste, Øyvind; Wright, Richard F

    2014-07-01

    A model network comprising climate models, a hydrological model, a catchment-scale model for phosphorus biogeochemistry, and a lake thermodynamics and plankton dynamics model was used to simulate phosphorus loadings, total phosphorus and chlorophyll concentrations in Lake Vansjø, Southern Norway. The model network was automatically calibrated against time series of hydrological, chemical and biological observations in the inflowing river and in the lake itself using a Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Climate projections from three global climate models (GCM: HadRM3, ECHAM5r3 and BCM) were used. The GCM model HadRM3 predicted the highest increase in temperature and precipitation and yielded the highest increase in total phosphorus and chlorophyll concentrations in the lake basin over the scenario period of 2031-2060. Despite the significant impact of climate change on these aspects of water quality, it is minimal when compared to the much larger effect of changes in land-use. The results suggest that implementing realistic abatement measures will remain a viable approach to improving water quality in the context of climate change. PMID:24622900

  1. Remote Sensing Application to Land Use Classification in a Rapidly Changing Agricultural/Urban Area: City of Virginia Beach, Virginia. Ph.D. Thesis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Odenyo, V. A. O.

    1975-01-01

    Remote sensing data on computer-compatible tapes of LANDSAT 1 multispectral scanner imager were analyzed to generate a land use map of the City of Virginia Beach. All four bands were used in both the supervised and unsupervised approaches with the LAYSYS software system. Color IR imagery of a U-2 flight of the same area was also digitized and two sample areas were analyzed via the unsupervised approach. The relationships between the mapped land use and the soils of the area were investigated. A land use land cover map at a scale of 1:24,000 was obtained from the supervised analysis of LANDSAT 1 data. It was concluded that machine analysis of remote sensing data to produce land use maps was feasible; that the LAYSYS software system was usable for this purpose; and that the machine analysis was capable of extracting detailed information from the relatively small scale LANDSAT data in a much shorter time without compromising accuracy.

  2. The Implications of Future Food Demand on Global Land Use, Land-Use Change Emissions, and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Luckow, P.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Eom, J.; Kim, S.; Moss, R.; Patel, P.

    2011-12-01

    In 2005, cropland accounted for approximately 10% of global land area. The amount of cropland needed in the future depends on a number of factors including global population, dietary preferences, and agricultural crop yields. In this paper, we explore the effect of various assumptions about global food demand and agricultural productivity between now and 2100 on global land use, land-use change emissions, and climate using the GCAM model. GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated, global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. For this analysis, we look at the effect of alternative socioeconomic pathways, crop yield improvement assumptions, and future meat demand scenarios on the demand for agricultural land. The three socioeconomic pathways explore worlds where global population in 2100 ranges from 6 billion people to 14 billion people. The crop yield improvement assumptions range from a world where yields do not improve beyond today's levels to a world with significantly higher crop productivity. The meat demand scenarios range from a vegetarian world to a world where meat is a dominant source of calories in the global diet. For each of these scenarios, we find that sufficient land exists to feed the global economy. However, rates of deforestation, bioenergy potential, land-use change emissions, and climate change differ across the scenarios. Under less favorable scenarios, deforestation rates, land-use change emissions, and the rate of climate change can be adversely affected.

  3. Modeling future water demand in California from developed and agricultural land uses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, T. S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Cameron, D. R.

    2015-12-01

    Municipal and urban land-use intensification in coming decades will place increasing pressure on water resources in California. The state is currently experiencing one of the most extreme droughts on record. This coupled with earlier spring snowmelt and projected future climate warming will increasingly constrain already limited water supplies. The development of spatially explicit models of future land use driven by empirical, historical land use change data allow exploration of plausible LULC-related water demand futures and potential mitigation strategies. We utilized the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) state-and-transition simulation model to project spatially explicit (1 km) future developed and agricultural land use from 2012 to 2062 and estimated the associated water use for California's Mediterranean ecoregions. We modeled 100 Monte Carlo simulations to better characterize and project historical land-use change variability. Under current efficiency rates, total water demand was projected to increase 15.1% by 2062, driven primarily by increases in urbanization and shifts to more water intensive crops. Developed land use was projected to increase by 89.8%-97.2% and result in an average 85.9% increase in municipal water use, while agricultural water use was projected to decline by approximately 3.9%, driven by decreases in row crops and increases in woody cropland. In order for water demand in 2062 to balance to current demand levels, the currently mandated 25% reduction in urban water use must remain in place in conjunction with a near 7% reduction in agricultural water use. Scenarios of land-use related water demand are useful for visualizing alternative futures, examining potential management approaches, and enabling better informed resource management decisions.

  4. The Columbian Encounter and Land-Use Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Turner, B. L. II, Butzer, Karl W.

    1992-01-01

    Discusses land use patterns in fifteenth-century Europe and in the Americas and the mutual influence (initiated by Columbus's arrival in the Americas) that led to land use change. Presents a historical perspective and categorization of contemporary global land use changes for the purpose of highlighting associations between past and present global…

  5. Global priorities for national carnivore conservation under land use change.

    PubMed

    Di Minin, Enrico; Slotow, Rob; Hunter, Luke T B; Montesino Pouzols, Federico; Toivonen, Tuuli; Verburg, Peter H; Leader-Williams, Nigel; Petracca, Lisanne; Moilanen, Atte

    2016-01-01

    Mammalian carnivores have suffered the biggest range contraction among all biodiversity and are particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. Therefore, we identified priority areas for the conservation of mammalian carnivores, while accounting for species-specific requirements for connectivity and expected agricultural and urban expansion. While prioritizing for carnivores only, we were also able to test their effectiveness as surrogates for 23,110 species of amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles and 867 terrestrial ecoregions. We then assessed the risks to carnivore conservation within each country that makes a contribution to global carnivore conservation. We found that land use change will potentially lead to important range losses, particularly amongst already threatened carnivore species. In addition, the 17% of land targeted for protection under the Aichi Target 11 was found to be inadequate to conserve carnivores under expected land use change. Our results also highlight that land use change will decrease the effectiveness of carnivores to protect other threatened species, especially threatened amphibians. In addition, the risk of human-carnivore conflict is potentially high in countries where we identified spatial priorities for their conservation. As meeting the global biodiversity target will be inadequate for carnivore protection, innovative interventions are needed to conserve carnivores outside protected areas to compliment any proposed expansion of the protected area network. PMID:27034197

  6. Global priorities for national carnivore conservation under land use change

    PubMed Central

    Di Minin, Enrico; Slotow, Rob; Hunter, Luke T. B.; Montesino Pouzols, Federico; Toivonen, Tuuli; Verburg, Peter H.; Leader-Williams, Nigel; Petracca, Lisanne; Moilanen, Atte

    2016-01-01

    Mammalian carnivores have suffered the biggest range contraction among all biodiversity and are particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. Therefore, we identified priority areas for the conservation of mammalian carnivores, while accounting for species-specific requirements for connectivity and expected agricultural and urban expansion. While prioritizing for carnivores only, we were also able to test their effectiveness as surrogates for 23,110 species of amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles and 867 terrestrial ecoregions. We then assessed the risks to carnivore conservation within each country that makes a contribution to global carnivore conservation. We found that land use change will potentially lead to important range losses, particularly amongst already threatened carnivore species. In addition, the 17% of land targeted for protection under the Aichi Target 11 was found to be inadequate to conserve carnivores under expected land use change. Our results also highlight that land use change will decrease the effectiveness of carnivores to protect other threatened species, especially threatened amphibians. In addition, the risk of human-carnivore conflict is potentially high in countries where we identified spatial priorities for their conservation. As meeting the global biodiversity target will be inadequate for carnivore protection, innovative interventions are needed to conserve carnivores outside protected areas to compliment any proposed expansion of the protected area network. PMID:27034197

  7. Assessing the Impacts of Land Use Change from Cotton to Perennial Bioenergy Grasses on Hydrological Fluxes and Water Quality in a Semi-Arid Agricultural Watershed Using the APEX Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Y.; Ale, S.; Rajan, N.

    2015-12-01

    The semi-arid Texas High Plains (THP) region, where cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) is grown in vast acreage, has the potential to grow perennial bioenergy grasses. A change in land use from cotton cropping systems to perennial grasses such as Alamo switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) and Miscanthus giganteus (Miscanthus sinensis Anderss. [Poaceae]) can significantly affect regional hydrologic cycle and water quality. Assessing the impacts of this potential land use change on hydrology and water quality enables the environmental assessment of feasibility to grow perennial grasses in this region to meet the U.S. national bioenergy target of 2022. The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model was used in this study to assess the impacts of replacing cotton with switchgrass and Miscanthus on water and nitrogen balances in the upstream subwatershed of the Double Mountain Fork Brazos watershed in the THP, which contains 52% cotton land use. The APEX model was initially calibrated against observed streamflow and crop yield data. Since observed data on nitrogen loads in streamflow was not available for this subwatershed, we calibrated the APEX model against the SWAT-simulated nitrogen loads at the outlet of this subwatershed, which were obtained in a parallel study. The calibrated APEX model was used to simulate the impacts of land use change from cotton to Miscanthus and switchgrass on surface and subsurface water and nitrogen balances. Preliminary results revealed that the average (1994-2009) annual surface runoff decreased by 84% and 66% under the irrigated and dryland switchgrass scenarios compared to the baseline scenarios. Average annual percolation increased by 106% and 57% under the irrigated and dryland switchgrass scenarios relative to the baseline scenarios. Preliminary results also indicated Miscanthus and switchgrass appeared to be superior to cotton in terms of better water conservation and water quality, and minimum crop management requirements.

  8. Political ecology of land use change in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Novira, Nina

    2014-05-01

    Indonesia had once around 10% of the world's rain forest. Many accuse shifting cultivation and poverty to be responsible to tropical deforestation and land use change. Without denying the importance of these factors, this paper tries to see the problem from a different angel. Massive deforestation first took place when the Dutch colonials decided to develop coffee, tea and later rubber and oil palm plantation in the late 19th century. During the Independence Era, land use change can be divided into 3 periods: 1950 - 1975 period of agricultural expansion, mainly government program; 1975 - 1990 period of commercial logging concession, mainly private concession with government's endorsement; and 1990 to date period of land use change to cash crop, settlement, and business area, a more complex process involving private company, government program and endorsement, and personal action. The first two periodization shows clearly that land use change in Indonesia has a strong connection to political decision and power at certain period of time, which also influenced by international market tendencies at the given period. The last period has actually not so much difference. This paper seeks to explain land use change in Indonesia especially in the last period of 1990 to present. This period can be divided again into 3 sub-periods: later New Order Era, early Reformation Era, and the Regional Autonomy Era. The case study was conducted in Labuhan Batu Utara District of North Sumatera. Semi-structured interview was done with various actors in different levels. It is argued that government's policies and arrangements along with government's reaction to international market and politics plays a substantially important role in land use change. In the first sub-period (1990 - 1998), it is the fading power of Suharto's regime that increases farmers' courage to violate the strict prohibition of rice field conversion to other uses. Another important factor is the introduction of

  9. Change in statistics of drought in a land use scenario for Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilian, Markus; Chavez, Erik; Lucarini, Valerio

    2016-04-01

    The land use changes due to an intensified and expanding agricultural and industrial activity is affecting regional weather and climate in Brazil. We analyse the results of a land use change driven Weather and Research Forecasting Model (WRF) using classical drought indices and specific agricultural yield loss drought optimum indices. The objective is to assess changes in risk exposure driven by changes in weather patterns subject to different scenarios of land use changes in Brazil. The WRF model is driven by land use changes as well as the ECHAM5 climate model (with the A1B scenario) on a 60km and 30km grid. In order to determine the risk exposure of an important economic sector to changes in land use change we focus on maize as one of the principal crop grown in Brazil.

  10. Impacts of Forest and Agricultural Land Use on Stream Dissolved Organic Carbon During Storms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oh, N. H.; Shin, Y.; Jeon, Y. J.; Lee, E. J.; Eom, J. S.; Kim, B.

    2015-12-01

    Although many studies have been conducted to evaluate the effects of land use on concentrations and compositions of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in streams and rivers, the relationships are still not clear. To elucidate the impacts of forest and agricultural land use on stream DOC during storm events, we investigated concentrations, optical properties, δ13C, and Δ 14C of DOC in forest and agriculture dominated headwater streams in South Korea. Stream DOC concentrations were the highest in a forested subwatershed, and a significant positive correlation was observed between stream DOC concentrations and the proportion of forested area in watersheds, which was strengthened by increased rain intensity. Four PARAFAC components were extracted including terrestrial humic substances, terrestrial fulvic acids, microbial organic matter, and protein-like organic matter, all of which showed a positive correlation with stream DOC concentration although relative proportion of components were dependent on land use. While DOC in a forest stream was mostly composed of terrestrially derived and 14C-enriched, DOC in an agricultural stream included aged DOC up to ~1,000 years old. Although the impacts of hydrological changes due to irrigation, fertilizer use, and selected crop species were not examined, the results of this study suggest that agricultural land use can be a source of aged terrestrial DOC to streams during summer monsoon storms, potentially changing the balance of the regional carbon cycle.

  11. Systemic change increases forecast uncertainty of land use change models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verstegen, J. A.; Karssenberg, D.; van der Hilst, F.; Faaij, A.

    2013-12-01

    Cellular Automaton (CA) models of land use change are based on the assumption that the relationship between land use change and its explanatory processes is stationary. This means that model structure and parameterization are usually kept constant over time, ignoring potential systemic changes in this relationship resulting from societal changes, thereby overlooking a source of uncertainty. Evaluation of the stationarity of the relationship between land use and a set of spatial attributes has been done by others (e.g., Bakker and Veldkamp, 2012). These studies, however, use logistic regression, separate from the land use change model. Therefore, they do not gain information on how to implement the spatial attributes into the model. In addition, they often compare observations for only two points in time and do not check whether the change is statistically significant. To overcome these restrictions, we assimilate a time series of observations of real land use into a land use change CA (Verstegen et al., 2012), using a Bayesian data assimilation technique, the particle filter. The particle filter was used to update the prior knowledge about the parameterization and model structure, i.e. the selection and relative importance of the drivers of location of land use change. In a case study of sugar cane expansion in Brazil, optimal model structure and parameterization were determined for each point in time for which observations were available (all years from 2004 to 2012). A systemic change, i.e. a statistically significant deviation in model structure, was detected for the period 2006 to 2008. In this period the influence on the location of sugar cane expansion of the driver sugar cane in the neighborhood doubled, while the influence of slope and potential yield decreased by 75% and 25% respectively. Allowing these systemic changes to occur in our CA in the future (up to 2022) resulted in an increase in model forecast uncertainty by a factor two compared to the

  12. Farming the Planet: Agricultural land use and the transformation of Planet Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramankutty, N.

    2008-12-01

    Agriculture has dramatically altered the face of our planet. Roughly a third of the world's landscape is currently being used for cultivation or grazing cattle. Furthermore, over the last 50 years, our food production system has been driven by agricultural intensification, through increased use of irrigation and fertilization. Such large-scale changes in land cover and land use can have major Earth system consequences. Nonetheless, few descriptions are available of the nature and extent of these changes. In this talk, I will describe recent work in the use of remote-sensing and ground-based data to derive global data sets of agricultural land cover and land use practices. I will present results from mapping the world's croplands and pastures, the harvested area and yield of 175 different crops, and fertilizer application rates for the Year 2000.

  13. Agricultural Land Use Determines the Trait Composition of Ground Beetle Communities

    PubMed Central

    Birkhofer, Klaus; Smith, Henrik G.; Hedlund, Katarina

    2016-01-01

    In order to improve biological control of agricultural pests, it is fundamental to understand which factors influence the composition of natural enemies in agricultural landscapes. In this study, we aimed to understand how agricultural land use affects a number of different traits in ground beetle communities to better predict potential consequences of land-use change for ecosystem functioning. We studied ground beetles in fields with different agricultural land use ranging from frequently managed sugar beet fields, winter wheat fields to less intensively managed grasslands. The ground beetles were collected in emergence tents that catch individuals overwintering locally in different life stages and with pitfall traps that catch individuals that could have a local origin or may have dispersed into the field. Community weighted mean values for ground beetle traits such as body size, flight ability and feeding preference were estimated for each land-use type and sampling method. In fields with high land-use intensity the average body length of emerging ground beetle communities was lower than in the grasslands while the average body length of actively moving communities did not differ between the land-use types. The proportion of ground beetles with good flight ability or a carnivorous diet was higher in the crop fields as compared to the grasslands. Our study highlights that increasing management intensity reduces the average body size of emerging ground beetles and the proportion of mixed feeders. Our results also suggest that the dispersal ability of ground beetles enables them to compensate for local management intensities. PMID:26730734

  14. Agricultural Land Use Determines the Trait Composition of Ground Beetle Communities.

    PubMed

    Hanson, Helena I; Palmu, Erkki; Birkhofer, Klaus; Smith, Henrik G; Hedlund, Katarina

    2016-01-01

    In order to improve biological control of agricultural pests, it is fundamental to understand which factors influence the composition of natural enemies in agricultural landscapes. In this study, we aimed to understand how agricultural land use affects a number of different traits in ground beetle communities to better predict potential consequences of land-use change for ecosystem functioning. We studied ground beetles in fields with different agricultural land use ranging from frequently managed sugar beet fields, winter wheat fields to less intensively managed grasslands. The ground beetles were collected in emergence tents that catch individuals overwintering locally in different life stages and with pitfall traps that catch individuals that could have a local origin or may have dispersed into the field. Community weighted mean values for ground beetle traits such as body size, flight ability and feeding preference were estimated for each land-use type and sampling method. In fields with high land-use intensity the average body length of emerging ground beetle communities was lower than in the grasslands while the average body length of actively moving communities did not differ between the land-use types. The proportion of ground beetles with good flight ability or a carnivorous diet was higher in the crop fields as compared to the grasslands. Our study highlights that increasing management intensity reduces the average body size of emerging ground beetles and the proportion of mixed feeders. Our results also suggest that the dispersal ability of ground beetles enables them to compensate for local management intensities. PMID:26730734

  15. Carbon Density and Anthropogenic Land Use Influences on Net Land-Use Change Emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J.; Rothwell, Andrew J.

    2013-10-08

    We examine historical and future land-use emissions using a simple mechanistic carbon-cycle model with regional and ecosystem specific parameterizations. Our central estimate of net terrestrial land-use change emissions, exclusive of climate feedbacks, is 250 GtC over the last three hundred years. This estimate is most sensitive to assumptions for preindustrial forest and soil carbon densities. We also find that estimates are sensitive to the treatment of crop and pasture lands. These sensitivities also translate into differences in future terrestrial uptake in the RCP4.5 land-use scenario. This estimate of future uptake is lower than the native values from the GCAM integrated assessment model result due to lower net reforestation in the RCP4.5 gridded land-use data product

  16. Implications of climate and land use change: Chapter 4

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hall, Jefferson S.; Murgueitio, Enrique; Calle, Zoraida; Raudsepp-Hearne, Ciara; Stallard, Robert F.; Balvanera, Patricia; Hall, Jefferson S.; Kirn, Vanessa; Yanguas-Fernandez, Estrella

    2015-01-01

    This chapter relates ecosystem services to climate change and land use. The bulk of the chapter focuses on ecosystem services and steepland land use in the humid Neotropics – what is lost with land-cover changed, and what is gained with various types of restoration that are sustainable given private ownership. Many case studies are presented later in the white paper. The USGS contribution relates to climate change and the role of extreme weather events in land-use planning.

  17. Impacts of land-use history on the recovery of ecosystems after agricultural abandonment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krause, Andreas; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Bayer, Anita D.; Lindeskog, Mats; Arneth, Almut

    2016-09-01

    Land-use changes have been shown to have large effects on climate and biogeochemical cycles, but so far most studies have focused on the effects of conversion of natural vegetation to croplands and pastures. By contrast, relatively little is known about the long-term influence of past agriculture on vegetation regrowth and carbon sequestration following land abandonment. We used the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model to study the legacy effects of different land-use histories (in terms of type and duration) across a range of ecosystems. To this end, we performed six idealized simulations for Europe and Africa in which we made a transition from natural vegetation to either pasture or cropland, followed by a transition back to natural vegetation after 20, 60 or 100 years. The simulations identified substantial differences in recovery trajectories of four key variables (vegetation composition, vegetation carbon, soil carbon, net biome productivity) after agricultural cessation. Vegetation carbon and composition typically recovered faster than soil carbon in subtropical, temperate and boreal regions, and vice versa in the tropics. While the effects of different land-use histories on recovery periods of soil carbon stocks often differed by centuries across our simulations, differences in recovery times across simulations were typically small for net biome productivity (a few decades) and modest for vegetation carbon and composition (several decades). Spatially, we found the greatest sensitivity of recovery times to prior land use in boreal forests and subtropical grasslands, where post-agricultural productivity was strongly affected by prior land management. Our results suggest that land-use history is a relevant factor affecting ecosystems long after agricultural cessation, and it should be considered not only when assessing historical or future changes in simulations of the terrestrial carbon cycle but also when establishing long-term monitoring networks and

  18. Interactive Land Use-Climate Change Predictions in West Africa: Preliminary Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.; Koo, J.

    2013-12-01

    Land use changes constitute an important regional climate change forcing that modifies the greenhouse gas induced future climate changes. At the same time, climate change is an important driver for land use changes, although it is unclear how important this impact might be relative to the impact of socio-economic factors on future land use. Using West Africa as an example, this study examines the importance of considering land use-climate change interactions in decadal predictions for future land use and climate changes, and thus assess whether there is a strong need to incorporate land use modeling into earth system models. Specifically, we evaluate the impact of projected climate changes from a regional climate model (RegCM4-CLM4) on crop yields using the crop model DSSAT, and assess the need for future land use changes by combining crop yield changes with demand for local productions predicted based on socio-economic drivers using an economic model (IFPRI's IMPACT model). For this preliminary assessment, a simple land use allocation approach is used, which favors agricultural expansion over intensification in order to provide an upper limit for land use changes. As a first test, the RCP8.5 mid-century climate projected by the NCAR CESM model is used as the future climate boundary conditions to drive the regional climate model. The impact of considering the land use-climate change interactions will be evaluated based on the differences in projected climate changes between two types of simulations: one that considers land use changes driven by both climate-induced crop yield changes and socioeconomic factors, and one that considers land use changes driven solely by socioeconomic factors.

  19. Dynamic integration of land use changes in a hydrologic assessment of a rapidly developing Indian catchment.

    PubMed

    Wagner, Paul D; Bhallamudi, S Murty; Narasimhan, Balaji; Kantakumar, Lakshmi N; Sudheer, K P; Kumar, Shamita; Schneider, Karl; Fiener, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Rapid land use and land-cover changes strongly affect water resources. Particularly in regions that experience seasonal water scarcity, land use scenario assessments provide a valuable basis for the evaluation of possible future water shortages. The objective of this study is to dynamically integrate land use model projections with a hydrologic model to analyze potential future impacts of land use change on the water resources of a rapidly developing catchment upstream of Pune, India. For the first time projections from the urban growth and land use change model SLEUTH are employed as a dynamic input to the hydrologic model SWAT. By this means, impacts of land use changes on the water balance components are assessed for the near future (2009-2028) employing four different climate conditions (baseline, IPCC A1B, dry, wet). The land use change modeling results in an increase of urban area by +23.1% at the fringes of Pune and by +12.2% in the upper catchment, whereas agricultural land (-14.0% and -0.3%, respectively) and semi-natural area (-9.1% and -11.9%, respectively) decrease between 2009 and 2028. Under baseline climate conditions, these land use changes induce seasonal changes in the water balance components. Water yield particularly increases at the onset of monsoon (up to +11.0mm per month) due to increased impervious area, whereas evapotranspiration decreases in the dry season (up to -15.1mm per month) as a result of the loss of irrigated agricultural area. As the projections are made for the near future (2009-2028) land use change impacts are similar under IPCC A1B climate conditions. Only if more extreme dry years occur, an exacerbation of the land use change impacts can be expected. Particularly in rapidly changing environments an implementation of both dynamic land use change and climate change seems favorable to assess seasonal and gradual changes in the water balance.

  20. Land use change and land degradation in southeastern Mediterranean Spain.

    PubMed

    Symeonakis, Elias; Calvo-Cases, Adolfo; Arnau-Rosalen, Eva

    2007-07-01

    The magnitude of the environmental and social consequences of soil erosion and land degradation in semiarid areas of the Mediterranean region has long been recognized and studied. This paper investigates the interrelationship between land use/cover (LULC) changes and land degradation using remotely sensed and ancillary data for southeastern Spain. The area of study, the Xaló River catchment situated in the north of the Alicante Province, has been subjected to a number of LULC changes during the second half of the 20th century such as agricultural abandonment, forest fires, and tourist development. Aerial photographs dating back to 1956 were used for the delineation of historic LULC types; Landsat ETM+ data were used for the analysis and mapping of current conditions. Two important indicators of land degradation, namely, susceptibility to surface runoff and soil erosion, were estimated for the two dates using easily parametrizable models. The comparison of 1956 to 2000 conditions shows an overall "recuperating" trend over the catchment and increased susceptibility to soil erosion only in 3% of the catchment area. The results also identify potential degradation hot-spots where mitigation measures should be taken to prevent further degradation. The readily implemented methodology, based on modest data requirements demonstrated by this study, is a useful tool for catchment to regional scale land use change and land degradation studies and strategic planning for environmental management.

  1. Land-use protection for climate change mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popp, Alexander; Humpenöder, Florian; Weindl, Isabelle; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bonsch, Markus; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Müller, Christoph; Biewald, Anne; Rolinski, Susanne; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Dietrich, Jan Philipp

    2014-12-01

    Land-use change, mainly the conversion of tropical forests to agricultural land, is a massive source of carbon emissions and contributes substantially to global warming. Therefore, mechanisms that aim to reduce carbon emissions from deforestation are widely discussed. A central challenge is the avoidance of international carbon leakage if forest conservation is not implemented globally. Here, we show that forest conservation schemes, even if implemented globally, could lead to another type of carbon leakage by driving cropland expansion in non-forested areas that are not subject to forest conservation schemes (non-forest leakage). These areas have a smaller, but still considerable potential to store carbon. We show that a global forest policy could reduce carbon emissions by 77 Gt CO2, but would still allow for decreases in carbon stocks of non-forest land by 96 Gt CO2 until 2100 due to non-forest leakage effects. Furthermore, abandonment of agricultural land and associated carbon uptake through vegetation regrowth is hampered. Effective mitigation measures thus require financing structures and conservation investments that cover the full range of carbon-rich ecosystems. However, our analysis indicates that greater agricultural productivity increases would be needed to compensate for such restrictions on agricultural expansion.

  2. Detection and assessment of land use dynamics on Tenerife (Canary Islands): the agricultural development between 1986 and 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Günthert, Sebastian; Naumann, Simone; Siegmund, Alexander

    2012-10-01

    Since Spanish colonial times, the Canary Islands and especially Tenerife have always been used for intensive agriculture. Today almost 1/4 of the total area of Tenerife are agriculturally affected, whereas especially mountainous areas with suitable climate conditions are drastically transformed for agricultural use by building of large terraces. In recent years, political and economical developments lead to a further transformation process, especially inducted by an expansive tourism, which caused concentration- and intensification-tendencies of agricultural land use in lower altitudes as well as agricultural set-aside and rural exodus in the hinterland. The overall aim of the research at hand is to address the agricultural land use dynamics of the past decades, to statistically assess the causal reasons for those changes and to model the future agricultural land use dynamics on Tenerife. Therefore, an object-based classification procedure for recent RapidEye data (2010), Spot 4 (1998) as well as SPOT 1 (1986-88) imagery was developed, followed by a post classification comparison (PCC). Older agricultural fallow land or agricultural set-aside with a higher level of natural succession can hardly be acquired in the used medium satellite imagery. Hence, a second detection technique was generated, which allows an exact identification of the total agriculturally affected area on Tenerife, also containing older agricultural fallow land or agricultural set-aside. The method consists of an automatic texture-oriented detection and area-wide extraction of linear agricultural structures (plough furrows and field boundaries of arable land, utilised and non-utilised agricultural terraces) in current orthophotos of Tenerife. Once the change detection analysis is realised, it is necessary to identify the different driving forces which are responsible for the agricultural land use dynamics. The statistical connections between agricultural land use changes and these driving forces

  3. The effect of land-use changes on actual geomorphodynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seeger, Manuel; Ries, Johannes B.; Marzolff, Irene

    2010-05-01

    Land-use changes are the cause of severe impacts on the earth's surface characteristics. Intensification commonly leads to a reduction of plant cover and to the destruction of soil's organic matter, whereas the extensification is understood to reduce disturbance on the soil's surface. The economic situation in agriculture is leading on one hand to an intensification of agricultural production, e.g. the expansion of irrigation, on the other hand to a parallel extensification by abandonment of dry-land farming practices and expansion of extensive or occasional grazing. The semi-arid north east of the Iberian Peninsula has been affected during the last decade by an increase of fallow land of around 20 %. The process has lead on one side to a slow increase of vegetation cover, but at the same time also to an increment of geomorphodynamics. This, apparently, contradictory behaviour of the areas is caused by an increase of the process' complexity. It is true that the vegetation cover tends to reduce the splash and sheet erosion, but its patchy development causes a runoff concentration and a subsequent strong increase of rill erosion processes. These are considered to be highly productive sediment sources, which stay active due to self reinforcing processes. A combination of experimental methods and monitoring techniques have proved that there is an increase of sediment production following the abandonment of agricultural practices. After some years it may decrease, but the runoff generation maintains high. This leads to a shift in process interactions and intensities, leading to increasing linear erosion (rills, gullies) and enhancing the downward coupling of runoff and erosion processes. Additionally, the coupling is enhanced by man-made structures like trails, ditches, terrace rims and animal paths. The results show clearly that land-use and land-use changes are the cause of high dynamics on the earth's surface. Even the reduction of disturbance leads to a change in

  4. The Spatiotemporal Land use/cover Change of Adana City

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akın, A.; Erdoğan, M. A.; Berberoğlu, S.

    2013-10-01

    The major driving factors for land use planning are largely limited to socio-economic inputs that do not completely represent the spatio-temporal patterns and ecological inputs have often been neglected. Integration of remote sensing and GIS techniques enabled successful applications in characterizing the spatiotemporal trends of land use/land cover (LULC) change. This study demonstrated an approach that combines remote sensing, landscape metrics, and LULC change analysis as a promising tool for understanding spatiotemporal patterns of Adana city. Calculation of spatial metrics was based on a categorical, patch-based representation of the landscape. Landscape metrics are conceptual framework for sustainable landscape and ecological planning. LULC change analysis was performed by considering the metric calculation. Post-classification technique was used for the metric based change detection and two different remotely sensed data set recorded in 1967 (CORONA) and 2007 (ALOS AVNIR) were used for the analysis. Additionally, a LULC projection for the year 2023 was also generated and integrated to the change analysis. SLEUTH model was utilised as a urban growth model for the future developments of study area in the scope of Cellular Automata (CA). SLEUTH model contains the main elements that characterize the core characteristics of CA: it works in a grid space of homogeneous cells, with a neighburhood of eight cells, two cell states and five transition rules that act in sequential time steps. Most useful and relevant metrics for landscape including: percentage of landscape, patch density, edge density, largest patch index, Euclidian mean nearest neighbor distance, area weighted mean patch fractal dimension and contagion were calculated for the 1967, 2007 and 2023 LULC maps and temporal changes were determined for the study area. Most considerable change was observed on the agricultural areas. Urban sprawl is the major driving factor of the LULC change.

  5. Changing land use: Problems and opportunities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.S.; Dawson, D.K.; Dowell, B.A.; Wilson, Marcia H.; Sader, Steven A.

    1995-01-01

    Under the pressure of increasing human populations and expanding demands for food and fiber, native tropical and temperate habitats are becoming more restricted, and populations of many resident and migratory birds are declining. Mist net surveys of 111 forest and agricultural sites in Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala show that some migratory species use a wide variety of habitats during the non-breeding season; other migrants, especially ground-feeding insectivores that nest in temperate forests, are largely restricted to forest habitats during the northern winter. Most tropical residents are also scarce or absent in agricultural habitats; this is especially true of the suboscine families, which are an important component of tropical forests: Furnariidae, Dendrocolaptidae, Formicariidae, Tyrannidae, and Pipridae: Of the various agricultural habitats studied, arboreal crops, especially mature citrus and cacao, were used by a wide variety and relatively large number of migrants; at the other extreme, few birds were captured or observed in commercially grown allspice and platanos (bananas). Although habitat constraints on many species are increasing, the impact of these constraints can be reduced through research, management, legislation, and especially education. Long-range habitat management objectives that reduce forest fragmentation and promote retention of critical habitats for species can be realized if an informed and concerned public can be created

  6. Land use mapping and change detection using ERTS imagery in Montgomery County, Alabama

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilms, R. P.

    1973-01-01

    The feasibility of using remotely sensed data from ERTS-1 for mapping land use and detecting land use change was investigated. Land use information was gathered from 1964 air photo mosaics and from 1972 ERTS data. The 1964 data provided the basis for comparison with ERTS-1 imagery. From this comparison, urban sprawl was quite evident for the city of Montgomery. A significant trend from forestland to agricultural was also discovered. The development of main traffic arteries between 1964 and 1972 was a vital factor in the development of some of the urban centers. Even though certain problems in interpreting and correlating land use data from ERTS imagery were encountered, it has been demonstrated that remotely sensed data from ERTS is useful for inventorying land use and detecting land use change.

  7. Prospects for land-use sustainability on the agricultural frontier of the Brazilian Amazon.

    PubMed

    Galford, Gillian L; Soares-Filho, Britaldo; Cerri, Carlos E P

    2013-06-01

    The Brazilian Amazon frontier shows how remarkable leadership can work towards increased agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability without new greenhouse gas emissions. This is due to initiatives among various stakeholders, including national and state government and agents, farmers, consumers, funding agencies and non-governmental organizations. Change has come both from bottom-up and top-down actions of these stakeholders, providing leadership, financing and monitoring to foster environmental sustainability and agricultural growth. Goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land-cover and land-use change in Brazil are being achieved through a multi-tiered approach that includes policies to reduce deforestation and initiatives for forest restoration, as well as increased and diversified agricultural production, intensified ranching and innovations in agricultural management. Here, we address opportunities for the Brazilian Amazon in working towards low-carbon rural development and environmentally sustainable landscapes. PMID:23610175

  8. Prospects for land-use sustainability on the agricultural frontier of the Brazilian Amazon

    PubMed Central

    Galford, Gillian L.; Soares-Filho, Britaldo; Cerri, Carlos E. P.

    2013-01-01

    The Brazilian Amazon frontier shows how remarkable leadership can work towards increased agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability without new greenhouse gas emissions. This is due to initiatives among various stakeholders, including national and state government and agents, farmers, consumers, funding agencies and non-governmental organizations. Change has come both from bottom-up and top-down actions of these stakeholders, providing leadership, financing and monitoring to foster environmental sustainability and agricultural growth. Goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land-cover and land-use change in Brazil are being achieved through a multi-tiered approach that includes policies to reduce deforestation and initiatives for forest restoration, as well as increased and diversified agricultural production, intensified ranching and innovations in agricultural management. Here, we address opportunities for the Brazilian Amazon in working towards low-carbon rural development and environmentally sustainable landscapes. PMID:23610175

  9. [Impacts of rail transit in Shanghai on its urban land use change].

    PubMed

    Li, Cheng; Li, Jun-Xiang; Li, Rong; Xu, Ming-Ce; Qin, Hai

    2008-07-01

    By using the land use data interpreted with 1:50,000 color-infrared aerial photos of Shanghai collected in 1989 and 2005, and based on Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, the impacts of urban rail transit (URT) development in Shanghai on its urban land use change was quantitatively analyzed, and a preliminary prediction of the land use change from 2010 to 2025 was made with Markov probability models. The results showed that the URT accelerated the land use change, particularly from an agricultural dominated natural landscape in 1989 to a high-value man-made urban landscape primarily composed of residence and public facilities. URT increased the land use rate in the study area. From 1989 to 2005, public facility land, green space, agriculture land, land for other uses (primarily used for construction), and water area changed greatly, with the greatest change rate of the land for other uses and the lowest one of water area. From 2010 to 2025, the areas and proportions of agriculture land and water area would keep on decreasing, while those of man-made landscapes including residence and public facilities would increase continuously. From the viewpoints of increasing land use rate and its gain, the present land use structure along Shanghai URT should be further regulated to improve the intensive and sustainable use of land resources.

  10. Assessing Ecological Impacts According to Land Use Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeong, S.; Lee, D. K.; Jeong, W.; Jeong, S. G.; Jin, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Land use patterns have changed by human activities, and it has affected the structure and dynamics of ecosystems. In particular, the conversion of forests into other land use has caused environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity. The evaluation of species and their habitat can be preferentially considered to prevent or minimize the adverse effects of land use change. The objective of study is identifying the impacts of environmental conditions on forest ecosystems by comparing ecological changes with time series spatial data. Species distribution models were developed for diverse species with presence data and time-series environmental variables, which allowed comparison of the habitat suitability and connectivity. Habitat suitability and connectivity were used to estimate impacts of forest ecosystems due to land use change. Our result suggested that the size and degree of ecological impacts are were different depending on the properties of land use change. The elements and species were greatly affected by the land use change according to the results. This study suggested that a methodology for measuring the interference of land use change in species habitat and connectivity. Furthermore, it will help to conserve and manage forest by identifying priority conservation areas with influence factor and scale.

  11. Monitoring land use change using remote sensing and GIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Yunlin; Peng, Mingjun

    2008-12-01

    Rapid land use change has take place in Wuhan, the largest mega-city in central China during the last decade. Remotely sensed imagery together with geographical information system have long been utilized to monitor spatial and temporal land use change. The aim of this paper is to find out the land use change and the trend of urban growth in Wuhan, China using satellite images. The Landsat TM image acquired in 1991 and the Landsat ETM image acquired in 2002 were used to monitor land use change in Wuhan. The images were geo-referenced according to Gauss-Kruger projection with Krasovsky spheroid, by using 1:50, 000 topographical maps. The image processing is implemented by using Erdas Imagine package. The RMS error has been controlled under the limit of 1 pixel. The geo-referenced images were classified as seven land use types: cultivated land, forest land, grassland, urban and villages, transportation, water bodies and barren land. Two land use maps were produced for each date. The geo-referenced, classified images were compared pixel by pixel to locate and quantify land use changes that took place from 1991 to 2002 period. The further change detection analysis in a later stage is performed in ArcGIS. The transition matrix was produced and the quantitative information on the size of land use change from one type to another was compiles. The results of study indicate that the conversion of land use from cultivated land to urban was prominent, the rapid urban sprawl has occupied lots of cultivated land and water bodies, the urban area significantly increased 30%, most of which are converted from cultivated land. these valuable cultivated land need careful protection by providing land use plans to guide urban growth going toward the right directions. The results obtained from this application also indicate that the use of satellite imageries is very useful for mapping land use changes, and the monitoring land use change is essential for land use planning and urban

  12. Techniques of UAV system land use changes detection application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Youying; Cui, Hongxia

    2011-02-01

    The unmanned aerial vehicle( UAV) was able to acquire remote sensing images with low cost, precise and high spatial resolution information needed by management of Land use at desired time. The aim of this paper was to present an overview of the ongoing research on the potential and techniques of low-altitude UAV system for land use applications. The development of crucial subsystems consisting of the UAV platforms, multiple camera system, camera calibration and photogrammetric production, was introduced together. A procedure of images acquisition and photogrammetric processing was proposed. To detect land use changes, methods based on DSMs and DLG were discussed and adopted in this paper. Finally, analysis of land use research based UAVs was realized on real flight experiments of two study areas. The results of this study show that UAVs can be used successfully for land use change detection.

  13. Quantifying the impact of land use change on hydrological responses in the Upper Ganga Basin, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsarouchi, Georgia-Marina; Mijic, Ana; Moulds, Simon; Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, Pradeep; Buytaert, Wouter

    2013-04-01

    Quantifying how changes in land use affect the hydrological response at the river basin scale is a challenge in hydrological science and especially in the tropics where many regions are considered data sparse. Earlier work by the authors developed and used high-resolution, reconstructed land cover maps for northern India, based on satellite imagery and historic land-use maps for the years 1984, 1998 and 2010. Large-scale land use changes and their effects on landscape patterns can impact water supply in a watershed by altering hydrological processes such as evaporation, infiltration, surface runoff, groundwater discharge and stream flow. Three land use scenarios were tested to explore the sensitivity of the catchment's response to land use changes: (a) historic land use of 1984 with integrated evolution to 2010; (b) land use of 2010 remaining stable; and (c) hypothetical future projection of land use for 2030. The future scenario was produced with Markov chain analysis and generation of transition probability matrices, indicating transition potentials from one land use class to another. The study used socio-economic (population density), geographic (distances to roads and rivers, and location of protected areas) and biophysical drivers (suitability of soil for agricultural production, slope, aspect, and elevation). The distributed version of the land surface model JULES was integrated at a resolution of 0.01° for the years 1984 to 2030. Based on a sensitivity analysis, the most sensitive parameters were identified. Then, the model was calibrated against measured daily stream flow data. The impact of land use changes was investigated by calculating annual variations in hydrological components, differences in annual stream flow and surface runoff during the simulation period. The land use changes correspond to significant differences on the long-term hydrologic fluxes for each scenario. Once analysed from a future water resources perspective, the results will be

  14. Evaluation of Resources of Agricultural Lands Using Fuzzy Indicators

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    With ever increasing demands on agriculture, it is essential that we be able to adequately evaluate agriculture land resources. Recently, efforts have been undertaken to develop methods and tools for the purpose of evaluating agricultural land resources. However, to be successful, assessments need...

  15. An Integrated Land Use - Land Cover Change Model for the Southern Africa Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Desanker, P. V.

    2001-12-01

    A land use change model covering the Miombo region of Southern Africa region is presented. The model includes a structure that recognizes the scales at which land use change decisions are made in the region, namely the traditional authority for subsistence agricultural land use, and includes social-economic and biophysical constraints to land use at multiple levels. Land cover information for the 1990's based on maps derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper data are used to initiative the model. The model, called MELT, can be used to examine impacts of land use change on carbon pools, emissions from land use change (slash and burn agriculture or as a result of soil carbon changes), and spatial patterning of land cover. MELT provides a suitable representation of the process of land use in this region, and will be essential in providing the correct context for observed fire and emissions across the region of the SAFARI 2000 initiative. MELT is implemented using an object-oriented approach, and allows easy linkage with impacts models.

  16. [Land use pattern and its dynamic changes in Amur tiger distribution region].

    PubMed

    Li, Zhong-wen; Wu, Jian-guo; Kou, Xiao-jun; Tian, Yu; Wang, Tian-ming; Mu, Pu; Ge, Jian-ping

    2009-03-01

    Land use and land cover change has been the primary cause for the habitat loss and fragmentation in the distribution region of Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica). Based on the spatiotemporal changes of land use and land cover in the distribution region, as well as their effects on the population dynamics of Amur tiger, this paper analyzed the development process and its characteristics of the main land use types (agricultural land, forest land, and construction land) in this region, with the land use change history being divided chronically into three distinctive periods, i.e., ancient times (prior to 1860), modern times (1860-1949), and contemporary times (after 1949). The results showed that the sporadic land use in ancient times had no significant effects on the survival of Amur tiger, while the extensive and intensive land use after the 1860s was mainly responsible for the decrease of Amur tiger population and its living space. Since 1949, the Amur tiger distribution region has been divided into two parts, i.e., Northeast China and Russia Far East. The differences in land use pattern, policy, and intensity between these two parts led to different survival status of Amur tiger. The key driving forces for the land use change in Amur tiger distribution region were human population increase, policy change, and increased productivity.

  17. [Land use pattern and its dynamic changes in Amur tiger distribution region].

    PubMed

    Li, Zhong-wen; Wu, Jian-guo; Kou, Xiao-jun; Tian, Yu; Wang, Tian-ming; Mu, Pu; Ge, Jian-ping

    2009-03-01

    Land use and land cover change has been the primary cause for the habitat loss and fragmentation in the distribution region of Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica). Based on the spatiotemporal changes of land use and land cover in the distribution region, as well as their effects on the population dynamics of Amur tiger, this paper analyzed the development process and its characteristics of the main land use types (agricultural land, forest land, and construction land) in this region, with the land use change history being divided chronically into three distinctive periods, i.e., ancient times (prior to 1860), modern times (1860-1949), and contemporary times (after 1949). The results showed that the sporadic land use in ancient times had no significant effects on the survival of Amur tiger, while the extensive and intensive land use after the 1860s was mainly responsible for the decrease of Amur tiger population and its living space. Since 1949, the Amur tiger distribution region has been divided into two parts, i.e., Northeast China and Russia Far East. The differences in land use pattern, policy, and intensity between these two parts led to different survival status of Amur tiger. The key driving forces for the land use change in Amur tiger distribution region were human population increase, policy change, and increased productivity. PMID:19637615

  18. Land use change effects on GHG dynamics in Central Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeLucia, N.; Bernacchi, C. J.; Gomez-Casanovas, N.

    2012-12-01

    The need for alternative energies is accelerating land use change as native or managed ecosystems are being converted to intense agricultural crops for biofuel purposes. Agriculture represents the single largest terrestrial flux of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere resulting from nutrient applications. Livestock grazing also accounts for a significant release of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere. Together, CO2, N2O and CH4 represent the dominant greenhouse gasses (GHG) that are emitted to the atmosphere through anthropogenic influences. Significant alterations to the land surface, particularly associated with changes in nutrient application rates, ability of vegetation to uptake nutrients, or changes in the stocking density of livestock, could have a meaningful impact on GHG emissions. Therefore, understanding how these changes will affect soil GHG dynamics is essential to quantify the impact of land use change on the global climate system. Large-scale changes to land cover type in Central Florida Highlands County is currently occurring in which improved pasture (bahiagrass, Paspalum notatum L., as forage for cattle, Bos taurus L.) is being replaced by energy cane (genus Saccharum L.). Fluxes of nitrous oxide (N2O), soil carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) were obtained over a complete wet-dry seasonal cycle in a grazed pasture and an energy cane plantation located in Highlands County, FL. In addition, we also investigated the biotic and environmental drivers that regulate soil GHG fluxes in these ecosystems. We predicted decreased rates of CH4 released to the atmosphere after the conversion process was completed to energy cane due to the absence of grazing cattle. We also predicted increased N2O emissions from aggressive fertilization of energycane. Using static chamber measurements, we collected gas samples from four energy cane crops at varying ages and improved pastures paired to each energy cane plot. The gas samples were analyzed using gas chromatography

  19. The effects of land use change and precipitation change on direct runoff in Wei River watershed, China.

    PubMed

    Dong, Leihua; Xiong, Lihua; Lall, Upmanu; Wang, Jiwu

    2015-01-01

    The principles and degrees to which land use change and climate change affect direct runoff generation are distinctive. In this paper, based on the MODIS data of land use in 1992 and 2003, the impacts of land use and climate change are explored using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method under two defined scenarios. In the first scenario, the precipitation is assumed to be constant, and thus the consequence of land use change could be evaluated. In the second scenario, the condition of land use is assumed to be constant, so the influence only induced by climate change could be assessed. Combining the conclusions of two scenarios, the effects of land use and climate change on direct runoff volume can be separated. At last, it is concluded: for the study basin, the land use types which have the greatest effect on direct runoff generation are agricultural land and water body. For the big sub basins, the effect of land use change is generally larger than that of climate change; for middle and small sub basins, most of them suffer more from land use change than from climate change. PMID:25633954

  20. The effects of land use change and precipitation change on direct runoff in Wei River watershed, China.

    PubMed

    Dong, Leihua; Xiong, Lihua; Lall, Upmanu; Wang, Jiwu

    2015-01-01

    The principles and degrees to which land use change and climate change affect direct runoff generation are distinctive. In this paper, based on the MODIS data of land use in 1992 and 2003, the impacts of land use and climate change are explored using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method under two defined scenarios. In the first scenario, the precipitation is assumed to be constant, and thus the consequence of land use change could be evaluated. In the second scenario, the condition of land use is assumed to be constant, so the influence only induced by climate change could be assessed. Combining the conclusions of two scenarios, the effects of land use and climate change on direct runoff volume can be separated. At last, it is concluded: for the study basin, the land use types which have the greatest effect on direct runoff generation are agricultural land and water body. For the big sub basins, the effect of land use change is generally larger than that of climate change; for middle and small sub basins, most of them suffer more from land use change than from climate change.

  1. Techniques for land use change detection using Landsat imagery

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Angelici, G. L.; Bryant, N. A.; Friedman, S. Z.

    1977-01-01

    A variety of procedures were developed for the delineation of areas of land use change using Landsat Multispectral Scanner data and the generation of statistics revealing the nature of the changes involved (i.e., number of acres changed from rural to urban). Techniques of the Image Based Information System were utilized in all stages of the procedure, from logging the Landsat data and registering two frames of imagery, to extracting the changed areas and printing tabulations of land use change in acres. Two alternative methods of delineating land use change are presented while enumerating the steps of the entire process. The Houston, Texas urban area, and the Orlando, Florida urban area, are used as illustrative examples of various procedures.

  2. Effect of land use change on soil properties and functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tonutare, Tonu; Kõlli, Raimo; Köster, Tiina; Rannik, Kaire; Szajdak, Lech; Shanskiy, Merrit

    2014-05-01

    For good base of sustainable land management and ecologically sound protection of soils are researches on soil properties and functioning. Ecosystem approach to soil properties and functioning is equally important in both natural and cultivated land use conditions. Comparative analysis of natural and agro-ecosystems formed on similar soil types enables to elucidate principal changes caused by land use change (LUC) and to elaborate the best land use practices for local pedo-ecological conditions. Taken for actual analysis mineral soils' catena - rendzina → brown soils → pseudopodzolic soils → gley-podzols - represent ca 1/3 of total area of Estonian normal mineral soils. All soils of this catena differ substantially each from other by calcareousness, acidity, nutrition conditions, fabric and humus cover type. This catena (representative to Estonian pedo-ecological conditions) starts with drought-prone calcareous soils. Brown (distributed in northern and central Estonia) and pseudopodzolic soils (in southern Estonia) are the most broadly acknowledged for agricultural use medium-textured high-quality automorphic soils. Dispersedly distributed gley-podzols are permanently wet and strongly acid, low-productivity sandy soils. In presentation four complex functions of soils are treated: (1) being a suitable soil environment for plant cover productivity (expressed by annual increment, Mg ha-1 yr-1); (2) forming adequate conditions for decomposition, transformation and conversion of fresh falling litter (characterized by humus cover type); (3) deposition of humus, individual organic compounds, plant nutrition elements, air and water, and (4) forming (bio)chemically variegated active space for soil type specific edaphon. Capacity of soil cover as depositor (3) depends on it thickness, texture, calcareousness and moisture conditions. Biological activity of soil (4) is determined by fresh organic matter influx, quality and quantity of biochemical substances and humus

  3. China’s Land-Use Changes during the Past 300 Years: A Historical Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Miao, Lijuan; Zhu, Feng; Sun, Zhanli; Moore, John C.; Cui, Xuefeng

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the processes of historical land-use change is crucial to the research of global environmental sustainability. Here we examine and attempt to disentangle the evolutionary interactions between land-use change and its underlying causes through a historical lens. We compiled and synthesized historical land-use change and various biophysical, political, socioeconomic, and technical datasets, from the Qing dynasty to modern China. The analysis reveals a clear transition period between the 1950s and the 1980s. Before the 1950s, cropland expanded while forested land diminished, which was also accompanied by increasing population; after the 1980s land-use change exhibited new characteristics: changes in cropland, and decoupling of forest from population as a result of agricultural intensification and globalization. Chinese political policies also played an important and complex role, especially during the 1950s–1980s transition periods. Overall, climate change plays an indirect but fundamental role in the dynamics of land use via a series of various cascading effects such as shrinking agricultural production proceeding to population collapse and outbreaks of war. The expected continuation of agricultural intensification this century should be able to support increasing domestic demand for richer diets, but may not be compatible with long-term environmental sustainability. PMID:27571087

  4. China's Land-Use Changes during the Past 300 Years: A Historical Perspective.

    PubMed

    Miao, Lijuan; Zhu, Feng; Sun, Zhanli; Moore, John C; Cui, Xuefeng

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the processes of historical land-use change is crucial to the research of global environmental sustainability. Here we examine and attempt to disentangle the evolutionary interactions between land-use change and its underlying causes through a historical lens. We compiled and synthesized historical land-use change and various biophysical, political, socioeconomic, and technical datasets, from the Qing dynasty to modern China. The analysis reveals a clear transition period between the 1950s and the 1980s. Before the 1950s, cropland expanded while forested land diminished, which was also accompanied by increasing population; after the 1980s land-use change exhibited new characteristics: changes in cropland, and decoupling of forest from population as a result of agricultural intensification and globalization. Chinese political policies also played an important and complex role, especially during the 1950s-1980s transition periods. Overall, climate change plays an indirect but fundamental role in the dynamics of land use via a series of various cascading effects such as shrinking agricultural production proceeding to population collapse and outbreaks of war. The expected continuation of agricultural intensification this century should be able to support increasing domestic demand for richer diets, but may not be compatible with long-term environmental sustainability. PMID:27571087

  5. China's Land-Use Changes during the Past 300 Years: A Historical Perspective.

    PubMed

    Miao, Lijuan; Zhu, Feng; Sun, Zhanli; Moore, John C; Cui, Xuefeng

    2016-08-25

    Understanding the processes of historical land-use change is crucial to the research of global environmental sustainability. Here we examine and attempt to disentangle the evolutionary interactions between land-use change and its underlying causes through a historical lens. We compiled and synthesized historical land-use change and various biophysical, political, socioeconomic, and technical datasets, from the Qing dynasty to modern China. The analysis reveals a clear transition period between the 1950s and the 1980s. Before the 1950s, cropland expanded while forested land diminished, which was also accompanied by increasing population; after the 1980s land-use change exhibited new characteristics: changes in cropland, and decoupling of forest from population as a result of agricultural intensification and globalization. Chinese political policies also played an important and complex role, especially during the 1950s-1980s transition periods. Overall, climate change plays an indirect but fundamental role in the dynamics of land use via a series of various cascading effects such as shrinking agricultural production proceeding to population collapse and outbreaks of war. The expected continuation of agricultural intensification this century should be able to support increasing domestic demand for richer diets, but may not be compatible with long-term environmental sustainability.

  6. The Solutions of the Agricultural Land Use Monitoring Problems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vershinin, Valentin V.; Murasheva, Alla A.; Shirokova, Vera A.; Khutorova, Alla O.; Shapovalov, Dmitriy A.; Tarbaev, Vladimir A.

    2016-01-01

    Modern landscape--it's a holistic system of interconnected and interacting components. To questions of primary importance belongs evaluation of stability of modern landscape (including agrarian) and its optimization. As a main complex characteristic and landscape inhomogeneity in a process of agricultural usage serves materials of quantitative and…

  7. Decomposing the Drivers of Past, Present, and Future Land Use Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    Over the past 500 years, global agricultural area has grown from 2 million km2 (1500) to 15 million km2 (2005), displacing forests and other natural ecosystems in the process (Hurtt et al., 2011). This expansion in area has been driven by changes in population, income, diet, and agricultural productivity. These factors will continue to evolve in the future; however, the effect of these changes on future land use, land cover, and emissions remains uncertain (e.g., Calvin et al., In Press). Additionally, future changes in land depend critically on the implementation of land-based mitigation options, such as bioenergy and afforestation (Wise et al., 2009; Reilly et al., 2012; Popp et al., 2013; Calvin et al., 2014). As all of these factors are uncertain in the future, the future evolution of land use and land cover is also uncertain. This presentation decomposes the drivers of past, present, and future land use change, characterizing the contribution of factors such as population, income, diet, agricultural productivity, and mitigation. In the historical period, we rely on a variety of land-based datasets (e.g., FAO, HYDE). For the future period, we analyze the integrated assessment modeling community's implementation of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; O'Neill et al., In Press). The SSPs describe five different evolutions of socioeconomic development, varying several factors relevant to land use and land use change.

  8. Modelling land use change in the Ganga basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moulds, Simon; Mijic, Ana; Buytaert, Wouter

    2014-05-01

    Over recent decades the green revolution in India has driven substantial environmental change. Modelling experiments have identified northern India as a "hot spot" of land-atmosphere coupling strength during the boreal summer. However, there is a wide range of sensitivity of atmospheric variables to soil moisture between individual climate models. The lack of a comprehensive land use change dataset to force climate models has been identified as a major contributor to model uncertainty. This work aims to construct a monthly time series dataset of land use change for the period 1966 to 2007 for northern India to improve the quantification of regional hydrometeorological feedbacks. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on board the Aqua and Terra satellites provides near-continuous remotely sensed datasets from 2000 to the present day. However, the quality and availability of satellite products before 2000 is poor. To complete the dataset MODIS images are extrapolated back in time using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) modelling framework, recoded in the R programming language to overcome limitations of the original interface. Non-spatial estimates of land use area published by the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) for the study period, available on an annual, district-wise basis, are used as a direct model input. Land use change is allocated spatially as a function of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers identified using logistic regression. The dataset will provide an essential input to a high-resolution, physically-based land-surface model to generate the lower boundary condition to assess the impact of land use change on regional climate.

  9. Land-use change and infectious disease in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomson, M. C.; Ericksen, P. J.; Mohamed, A. Ben; Connor, S. J.

    Land-use change has been associated with changes in the dynamics of infectious disease in West Africa. Here we describe the complex interactions of land-use change with three diseases (both vector- and non-vector-borne) of considerable public health significance in this region, namely, malaria and irrigation; epidemic meningitis and land degradation; onchocerciasis and deforestation. We highlight the confounding effect of climate variability, which acts as a driver of both land-use change and human health. We conclude, as have others, that the scale of observation always matters, and complex and dynamic feedbacks among social-ecological systems are not easily teased apart. We suggest that in order to establish the causal chain of interactions between land-use change and human health outcomes two approaches are necessary. The first is to have a thorough understanding of the aetiology of disease and the specific mechanisms by which land-use and climate variability affect the transmission of pathogens. This is achieved by focused, detailed studies encompassing a wide range of potential drivers, which are inevitably small scale and often cover short time periods. The second consists of large-scale studies of statistical associations between transmission indices or health outcomes and environmental variables stratified by known ecological or socio-economic confounders, and sufficient in size to overcome local biases in results. Such research activities need to be designed to inform each other if we are to develop predictive models for monitoring these diseases and to develop integrated programs for human health and sustainable land use.

  10. Characterization of streamflow, salinity, and selenium loading and land-use change in Montrose Arroyo, western Colorado, from 1992 to 2013

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Richards, Rodney J.; Moore, Jennifer L.

    2015-01-01

    Land use was characterized for 1992, 2002, and 2009 for site MA3. The common land-use change in the MA3 subwatershed was a conversion from previously irrigated agricultural land to urban land use. The MA3 subwatershed had 124 acres of irrigated land use converted to urban land use and 27.1 acres of unirrigated desert converted to urban land use from 1992 to 2009. Consistent with findings in previous land-use change reports, salinity and dissolved-selenium loading at site MA3 showed significant decreases as irrigated land was converted to urban land use.

  11. Agricultural intensification in Brazil and its effects on land-use patterns: an analysis of the 1975-2006 period.

    PubMed

    Barretto, Alberto G O P; Berndes, Göran; Sparovek, Gerd; Wirsenius, Stefan

    2013-06-01

    Does agricultural intensification reduce the area used for agricultural production in Brazil? Census and other data for time periods 1975-1996 and 1996-2006 were processed and analyzed using Geographic Information System and statistical tools to investigate whether and if so, how, changes in yield and stocking rate coincide with changes in cropland and pasture area. Complementary medium-resolution data on total farmland area changes were used in a spatially explicit assessment of the land-use transitions that occurred in Brazil during 1960-2006. The analyses show that in agriculturally consolidated areas (mainly southern and southeastern Brazil), land-use intensification (both on cropland and pastures) coincided with either contraction of both cropland and pasture areas, or cropland expansion at the expense of pastures, both cases resulting in farmland stability or contraction. In contrast, in agricultural frontier areas (i.e., the deforestation zones in central and northern Brazil), land-use intensification coincided with expansion of agricultural lands. These observations provide support for the thesis that (i) technological improvements create incentives for expansion in agricultural frontier areas; and (ii) farmers are likely to reduce their managed acreage only if land becomes a scarce resource. The spatially explicit examination of land-use transitions since 1960 reveals an expansion and gradual movement of the agricultural frontier toward the interior (center-western Cerrado) of Brazil. It also indicates a possible initiation of a reversed trend in line with the forest transition theory, i.e., agricultural contraction and recurring forests in marginally suitable areas in southeastern Brazil, mainly within the Atlantic Forest biome. The significant reduction in deforestation that has taken place in recent years, despite rising food commodity prices, indicates that policies put in place to curb conversion of native vegetation to agriculture land might be

  12. Land-use change and costs to rural households: a case study in groundwater nitrate contamination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keeler, Bonnie L.; Polasky, Stephen

    2014-07-01

    Loss of grassland from conversion to agriculture threatens water quality and other valuable ecosystem services. Here we estimate how land-use change affects the probability of groundwater contamination by nitrate in private drinking water wells. We find that conversion of grassland to agriculture from 2007 to 2012 in Southeastern Minnesota is expected to increase the future number of wells exceeding 10 ppm nitrate-nitrogen by 45% (from 888 to 1292 wells). We link outputs of the groundwater well contamination model to cost estimates for well remediation, well replacement, and avoidance behaviors to estimate the potential economic value lost due to nitrate contamination from observed land-use change. We estimate 0.7-12 million in costs (present values over a 20 year horizon) to address the increased risk of nitrate contamination of private wells. Our study demonstrates how biophysical models and economic valuation can be integrated to estimate the welfare consequences of land-use change.

  13. Agriculture and Energy: Implications for Food Security, Water, and Land Use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tokgoz, S.; Zhang, W.; Msangi, S.; Bhandary, P.

    2011-12-01

    population under hunger and poverty. In light of these threats and opportunities facing the global food system, the proposed study takes a long-term perspective and addresses the main medium and long- term drivers of agricultural markets using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade developed by the Environment and Production Technology Division of IFPRI to project future production, consumption, and trade of key agricultural commodities. The main objective of the study is to analyze the link between energy and agricultural markets, focusing on the "new" role of agriculture as a supplier of energy for transportation through biofuels, and the subsequent impact on land use and demand for water from the agricultural sector. In this context, this study incorporates various scenarios of future energy demand and energy price impacts on global agricultural markets (food prices and food security), water use implications (irrigation water consumption by agricultural sector), and land use implications (changes in national and global crop area). The scenarios are designed to understand the impact of energy prices on biofuel production, cost of production for agricultural crops, conversion of rainfed area to irrigated area, and necessary levels of crop productivity growth to counter these effects.

  14. Climate change and land-use change impact on Western African river basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mariotti, Laura; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Filippo

    2010-05-01

    The main resource in western Africa is agriculture and therefore availability and quality of fresh water resources threaten food production in many regions. Quantifying the impact of climate and land-use change in very vulnerable regions like western Africa is therefore of crucial importance for developing appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this work the International Center for theoretical Physic (ICTP) regional climate model (RegCM3) is used to perform a 120 (1980-2100) years climate change simulation under the A1B scenario using ECHAM5 as boundary condition (BC). To further investigate which it would be the combined effect of the land-use change together with the climate change a 10 years time simulation has been completed using the future projected land-use from IIASA (The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis). Both simulations have been coupled with a physical based fully distributed hydrological model (CHyM) to asses which it would be the final effect of climate and land-use change on the river discharge. The two rivers used for this analysis are the Niger and Volta basin. The CHyM model has been validated coupling fist the hydrological model with a perfect boundary regional model simulation using ERA-interim as BC and using the runoff observations available along the two river basins. The model is able to reproduce the monthly seasonal cycle in both river basins reasonably well, therefore this allow us to use the same setting for a climate and land-use change simulation. Two hydrological time slice simulations have been performed with and without land-use change included. Results are presented and discussed for the monsoon season (JJA) on a station based, for the same stations used for validation purposed, but also the spatial change in discharge is presented in both cases and compared with the simple precipitation change observed in the region. Although the portion of change in precipitation due to the green house gases

  15. Land use driven vegetation processes and regional climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Y.; Jia, G. J.

    2008-12-01

    Recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) confirm that climate change is occurring at a larger and more rapid rate of change than was thought likely only six years ago. Temperatures are increasing, and higher associated rates of evaporation will likely bring drier conditions in large portion of monsoon Asia areas where ecosystems and social-economy are under pressure of water deficit. Human activities have emerged as an important driving force that induces global and regional climatic change. In the past decades, human being have been enhancing their contributions to the trend of global warming at global scale and intensifying their impacts on regional climate by transforming land surface. It is therefore an essential issue to examine land use change to interpret the magnitudes of human impact on regional climate. Here, relationship between climate change and terrestrial ecological processes driven by land use options such as urbanization is discussed with case studies in monsoon Asia region. This study investigated the decadal changes of major land-use types over greater Guangzhou area by analyzing 1980s-2000s land- use raster dataset derived from landsat images, meteorological records, and census data. The results from change detection analysis show a general trend of decrease of cropland and increase of build-up in the past two decades. We then examined the temporal-spatial relationship between thermal climate index and fractional land-use types. Based on water-energy balance equation, calculated how temperature increased as a direct or indirect consequence of land-use change. Our results show that there were positive correlations between temperature and fractional cover of build-up and negative correlation between temperature and fractional cover of cropland. The temperature increased by 0.90°C in the period, and among which 0.37°C may have been contributed by land-use changes in the region. Meanwhile, strong urban heat islands

  16. Effective radiative forcing from historical land use change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrews, Timothy; Betts, Richard A.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Jones, Chris D.; Jones, Gareth S.

    2016-08-01

    The effective radiative forcing (ERF) from the biogeophysical effects of historical land use change is quantified using the atmospheric component of the Met Office Hadley Centre Earth System model HadGEM2-ES. The global ERF at 2005 relative to 1860 (1700) is -0.4 (-0.5) Wm-2, making it the fourth most important anthropogenic driver of climate change over the historical period (1860-2005) in this model and larger than most other published values. The land use ERF is found to be dominated by increases in the land surface albedo, particularly in North America and Eurasia, and occurs most strongly in the northern hemisphere winter and spring when the effect of unmasking underlying snow, as well as increasing the amount of snow, is at its largest. Increased bare soil fraction enhances the seasonal cycle of atmospheric dust and further enhances the ERF. Clouds are shown to substantially mask the radiative effect of changes in the underlying surface albedo. Coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations forced only with time-varying historical land use change shows substantial global cooling (dT = -0.35 K by 2005) and the climate resistance (ERF/dT = 1.2 Wm-2 K-1) is consistent with the response of the model to increases in CO2 alone. The regional variation in land surface temperature change, in both fixed-SST and coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations, is found to be well correlated with the spatial pattern of the forced change in surface albedo. The forcing-response concept is found to work well for historical land use forcing—at least in our model and when the forcing is quantified by ERF. Our results suggest that land-use changes over the past century may represent a more important driver of historical climate change then previously recognised and an underappreciated source of uncertainty in global forcings and temperature trends over the historical period.

  17. The Effect of Land Use Change on Land Surface Temperature in the Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Youneszadeh, S.; Amiri, N.; Pilesjo, P.

    2015-12-01

    The Netherlands is a small country with a relatively large population which experienced a rapid rate of land use changes from 2000 to 2008 years due to the industrialization and population increase. Land use change is especially related to the urban expansion and open agriculture reduction due to the enhanced economic growth. This research reports an investigation into the application of remote sensing and geographical information system (GIS) in combination with statistical methods to provide a quantitative information on the effect of land use change on the land surface temperature. In this study, remote sensing techniques were used to retrieve the land surface temperature (LST) by using the MODIS Terra (MOD11A2) Satellite imagery product. As land use change alters the thermal environment, the land surface temperature (LST) could be a proper change indicator to show the thermal changes in relation with land use changes. The Geographical information system was further applied to extract the mean yearly land surface temperature (LST) for each land use type and each province in the 2003, 2006 and 2008 years, by using the zonal statistic techniques. The results show that, the inland water and offshore area has the highest night land surface temperature (LST). Furthermore, the Zued (South)-Holland province has the highest night LST value in the 2003, 2006 and 2008 years. The result of this research will be helpful tool for urban planners and environmental scientists by providing the critical information about the land surface temperature.

  18. Trade-offs in land-use decisions: Towards a framework for assessing multiple ecosystem responses to land-use change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeFries, Ruth S.; Asner, Gregory P.; Houghton, Richard

    People alter the landscape primarily to appropriate ecosystem goods such as food, fiber, and timber for human consumption. Unintended consequences for ecosystems vary according to the type of land-use change, e.g., forest clearing for agriculture, grassland conversion for grazing, or urban expansion, as well as the underlying ecological characteristics, e.g., humid vs. dry, phosphorus vs. nitrogen-limited, or tropical vs. temperate. The ecosystem responses potentially alter future abilities to provide ecosystem goods and influence future land-use decisions. This volume addresses five major ecosystem responses to land-use change: hydrological, climatic, biogeochemical, human health, and biological diversity. The chapters summarize current knowledge from the perspectives of different disciplines and present analyses from many parts of the world in different ecological and socioeconomic settings. This introductory chapter develops a framework for understanding and communicating the multiple ecosystem responses as an essential input to societal decisions about land use.

  19. Spatio-temporal analysis of agricultural land-use intensity across the Western Siberian grain belt.

    PubMed

    Kühling, Insa; Broll, Gabriele; Trautz, Dieter

    2016-02-15

    The Western Siberian grain belt covers 1millionkm² in Asiatic Russia and is of global importance for agriculture. Massive land-use changes took place in that region after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the collapse of the state farm system. Decreasing land-use intensity (LUI) in post-Soviet Western Siberia was observed on grassland due to declining livestock whilst on cropland trends of land abandonment reversed in the early 2000s. Recultivation of abandoned cropland as well as increasing fertilizer inputs and narrowing crop rotations led to increasing LUI on cropland during the last two decades. Beyond that general trend, no information is available about spatial distribution and magnitude but a crucial precondition for the development of strategies for sustainable land management. To quantify changes and patterns in LUI, we developed an intensity index that reflects the impacts of land-based agricultural production. Based on subnational yearly statistical data, we calculated two separate input-orientated indices for cropland and grassland, respectively. The indices were applied on two spatial scale: at seven provinces covering the Western Siberian grain belt (Altay Kray, Chelyabinsk, Kurgan, Novosibirsk, Omsk, Sverdlovsk and Tyumen) and at all districts of the central province Tyumen. The spatio-temporal analysis clearly showed opposite trends for the two land-use types: decreasing intensity on grassland (-0.015 LUI units per year) and intensification on cropland (+0.014 LUI units per year). Furthermore, a spatial concentration towards intensity centres occurred during transition from a planned to a market economy. A principal component analysis enabled the individual calculations of both land-use types to be combined and revealed a strong link between biophysical conditions and LUI. The findings clearly showed the need for having a different strategy for future sustainable land management for grassland (predominantly used by livestock of households

  20. Land use effects on green water fluxes from agricultural production in Mato Grosso, Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lathuilliere, M. J.; Johnson, M. S.; Donner, S. D.

    2010-12-01

    The blue water/green water paradigm is increasingly used to differentiate between subsequent routing of precipitation once it reaches the soil. “Blue” water is that which infiltrates deep in the soil to become streams and aquifers, while “green” water is that which remains in the soil and is either evaporated (non-productive green water) or transpired by plants (productive green water). This differentiation in the fate of precipitation has provided a new way of thinking about water resources, especially in agriculture for which better use of productive green water may help to relieve stresses from irrigation (blue water). The state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, presents a unique case for the study of green water fluxes due to an expanding agricultural land base planted primarily to soybean, maize, sugar cane, and cotton. These products are highly dependent on green water resources in Mato Grosso where crops are almost entirely rain-fed. We estimate the change in green water fluxes from agricultural expansion for the 2000-2008 period in the state of Mato Grosso based on agricultural production data from the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatísticas and a modified Penman-Monteith equation. Initial results for seven municipalities suggest an increase in agricultural green water fluxes, ranging from 1-10% per year, due primarily to increases in cropped areas. Further research is underway to elucidate the role of green water flux variations from land use practices on the regional water cycle.

  1. CORAL RESPONSES TO CLIMATE AND LAND USE CHANGES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Fisher, William S., Debbie L. Santavy, John E. Rogers and Richard G. Zepp. In press. Coral Responses to Climate and Land Use Changes (Abstract). To be presented at the SETAC Fourth World Congress, 14-18 November 2004, Portland, OR. 1 p. (ERL,GB R1019).

    Coral reefs have ex...

  2. Potential climate forcing of land use and land cover change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, D. S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Kloster, S.

    2014-12-01

    Pressure on land resources is expected to increase as global population continues to climb and the world becomes more affluent, swelling the demand for food. Changing climate may exert additional pressures on natural lands as present-day productive regions may shift, or soil quality may degrade, and the recent rise in demand for biofuels increases competition with edible crops for arable land. Given these projected trends there is a need to understand the global climate impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC). Here we quantify the climate impacts of global LULCC in terms of modifications to the balance between incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere (radiative forcing, RF) that are caused by changes in long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol effects, and land surface albedo. We attribute historical changes in terrestrial carbon storage, global fire emissions, secondary organic aerosol emissions, and surface albedo to LULCC using simulations with the Community Land Model version 3.5. These LULCC emissions are combined with estimates of agricultural emissions of important trace gases and mineral dust in two sets of Community Atmosphere Model simulations to calculate the RF of changes in atmospheric chemistry and aerosol concentrations attributed to LULCC. With all forcing agents considered together, we show that 40% (±16%) of the present-day anthropogenic RF can be attributed to LULCC. Changes in the emission of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols from LULCC enhance the total LULCC RF by a factor of 2 to 3 with respect to the LULCC RF from CO2 alone. This enhancement factor also applies to projected LULCC RF, which we compute for four future scenarios associated with the Representative Concentration Pathways. We attribute total RFs between 0.9 and 1.9 W m-2 to LULCC for the year 2100 (relative to a pre-industrial state). To place an upper bound on the potential of LULCC to alter the global radiation budget

  3. Potential climate forcing of land use and land cover change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, D. S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Kloster, S.

    2014-05-01

    Pressure on land resources is expected to increase as global population continues to climb and the world becomes more affluent, swelling the demand for food. Changing climate may exert additional pressures on natural lands as present day productive regions may shift, or soil quality may degrade, and the recent rise in demand for biofuels increases competition with edible crops for arable land. Given these projected trends there is a need to understand the global climate impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC). Here we quantify the climate impacts of global LULCC in terms of modifications to the balance between incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere (radiative forcing; RF) that are caused by changes in long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol effects and land surface albedo. We simulate historical changes to terrestrial carbon storage, global fire emissions, secondary organic aerosol emissions, and surface albedo from LULCC using the Community Land Model version 3.5. These LULCC emissions are combined with estimates of agricultural emissions of important trace gases and mineral dust in two sets of Community Atmosphere Model simulations to calculate the RF from LULCC impacts on atmospheric chemistry and changes in aerosol concentrations. With all forcing agents considered together, we show that 45% (+30%, -20%) of the present-day anthropogenic RF can be attributed to LULCC. Changes in the emission of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols from LULCC enhance the total LULCC RF by a factor of 2 to 3 with respect to the LULCC RF from CO2 alone. This enhancement factor also applies to projected LULCC RF, which we compute for four future scenarios associated with the Representative Concentration Pathways. We calculate total RFs between 1 to 2 W m-2 from LULCC for the year 2100 (relative to a preindustrial state). To place an upper bound on the potential of LULCC to alter the global radiation budget we include a fifth

  4. Object-Based Retro-Classification Of A Agricultural Land Use: A Case Study Of Irrigated Croplands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dubovyk, Olena; Conrad, Christopher; Khamzina, Asia; Menz, Gunter

    2013-12-01

    Availability of the historical crop maps is necessary for the assessment of land management practices and their effectiveness, as well as monitoring of environmental impacts of land uses. Lack of accurate current and past land-use information forestalls assessment of the occurred changes and their consequences and, thus, complicates knowledge-driven agrarian policy development. At the same time, lack of the sampling dataset for the past years often restrict mapping of historical land use. We proposed a methodology for a retro-assessment of several crops, based on multitemporal Landsat 5 TM imagery and a limited sampling dataset. The overall accuracy of the retro-map was 81% while accuracies for specific crop classes varied from 60% to 93%. If further elaborated, the developed method could be a useful tool for the generation of historical data on agricultural land use.

  5. Agriculture, Food Production, and Rural Land Use in Advanced Placement® Human Geography

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moseley, William G.; Watson, Nancy H.

    2016-01-01

    ''Agriculture, Food, and Rural Land Use" constitutes a major part of the AP Human Geography course outline. This article explores challenging topics to teach, emerging research trends in agricultural geography, and sample teaching approaches for concretizing abstract topics. It addresses content identified as "essential knowledge"…

  6. Human modification of the atmospheric water cycle through land use change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Keys, Patrick; Fetzer, Ingo; Savenije, Hubert; Gordon, Line

    2016-04-01

    Human society have radically transformed the land surface of the Earth and through that altered the hydrological cycle in various way. In this research, we quantify and analyse the global changes to terrestrial moisture recycling from anthropogenic driven modifications in land cover and land use. We simulate evaporation and moisture recycling in potential, historical, and current land cover and land use scenarios by coupling a global hydrological model (STEAM) with a moisture tracking scheme (WAM-2layers). Moreover, we investigate where and when rainfall change occurs, assuming that change in moisture recycling translates into change in rainfall. Although changes in the hydrological flows are limited at the global and annual average, the spatial and temporal differences are significant. Propagation of land use change into rainfall change appears non-uniformly distributed. In particular, disappearance of vegetation appears to reduce the dry season length and affect the dry season rainfall more than the average. Thus, land use change in certain regions potentially affects agricultural development in downwind regions by altering the total rainfall as well as the dry season length. This study shows how land resources and water availability are tightly connected also over large distances, and points to the need to study land use change and climate change in conjunction.

  7. Climate, Agriculture, Energy and the Optimal Allocation of Global Land Use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinbuks, J.; Hertel, T. W.

    2011-12-01

    The allocation of the world's land resources over the course of the next century has become a pressing research question. Continuing population increases, improving, land-intensive diets amongst the poorest populations in the world, increasing production of biofuels and rapid urbanization in developing countries are all competing for land even as the world looks to land resources to supply more environmental services. The latter include biodiversity and natural lands, as well as forests and grasslands devoted to carbon sequestration. And all of this is taking place in the context of faster than expected climate change which is altering the biophysical environment for land-related activities. The goal of the paper is to determine the optimal profile for global land use in the context of growing commercial demands for food and forest products, increasing non-market demands for ecosystem services, and more stringent GHG mitigation targets. We then seek to assess how the uncertainty associated with the underlying biophysical and economic processes influences this optimal profile of land use, in light of potential irreversibility in these decisions. We develop a dynamic long-run, forward-looking partial equilibrium framework in which the societal objective function being maximized places value on food production, liquid fuels (including biofuels), timber production, forest carbon and biodiversity. Given the importance of land-based emissions to any GHG mitigation strategy, as well as the potential impacts of climate change itself on the productivity of land in agriculture, forestry and ecosystem services, we aim to identify the optimal allocation of the world's land resources, over the course of the next century, in the face of alternative GHG constraints. The forestry sector is characterized by multiple forest vintages which add considerable computational complexity in the context of this dynamic analysis. In order to solve this model efficiently, we have employed the

  8. Land use changing and land use optimization of Lake Baikal basin on the example of two key areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solodyankina, S.

    2012-04-01

    Lake Baikal contains roughly 20% of the world's unfrozen surface fresh water. It was declared a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1996. Today levels of urbanization and economic stress on environmental resources is increasing on the shorts of the lake Baikal. The potential of economic development (industry, local tourism, and mining) of the Severobaykalsky and Sludyansky districts is rather high although they are characterized not only by beneficial features for local economy but also by considerable disadvantages for nature of this world valuable territory. This investigation show human-caused landscape changes during economic development of the two key areas in Baikal water catchment basin during 10 years (point of reference is 2000 year). Key areas are 1) the Baikalo-Patomskoe highland in the north of the Baikal catchment basin (Severobaykalsky district, Republic of Buryatia); 2) Khamar-Daban mountain system in the south of the Baikal catchment basin (Sludyansky districy, Irkutsk region). Since 2000 year land use of the territory has changed. Areas of agriculture were reduced but recreation activity on the bank of the lake was increased. Methods of GIS analysis and local statistic analysis of landscape characteristic were used. Nature, rural and urban areas ratio are estimated. Vegetation and soil condition assessment were made. The essence of this research is in helping to make decisions linked to upcoming problems: situation identification, evaluation and forecasting of the potential landscape condition, optimization of land use, mitigation of impact and mapping of territories and nature resources which have a high ecological value or endangered by industrial impact. For this purpose landscape maps of the territories on the base of the remote sensing information and field investigations were created. They used to calculate potential landscape functions of the territory without taking into account present impact of anthropogenic actions. Land use maps for years

  9. PROJECTING LAND-USE CHANGE: A SUMMARY OF THE EFFECTS OF COMMUNITY GROWTH AND CHANGE ON LAND-USE PATTERNS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Many potential clients for land-use change models, such as city and county planners, community groups, and environmental agencies, need better information on the features, strengths, and limitations of various model packages. Because of this growing need, the U.S. Environmental P...

  10. Land use change effects on trace gas fluxes in the forest margins of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veldkamp, Edzo; Purbopuspito, Joko; Corre, Marife D.; Brumme, Rainer; Murdiyarso, Daniel

    2008-06-01

    Land use changes and land use intensification are considered important processes contributing to the increasing concentrations of the greenhouse gases nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) and of nitric oxide (NO), a precursor of ozone. Studies on the effects of land use changes and land use intensification on soil trace gas emissions were mostly conducted in Latin America and only very few in Asia. Here we present results from Central Sulawesi where profound changes in land use and cultivation practices take place: traditional agricultural practices like shifting cultivation and slash-and-burn agriculture are replaced by permanent cultivation systems and introduction of income-generating cash crops like cacao. Our results showed that N2O emissions were higher from cacao agroforestry (35 ± 10 μg N m-2 h-1) than maize (9 ± 2 μg N m-2 h-1), whereas intermediate rates were observed from secondary forests (25 ± 11 μg N m-2 h-1). NO emissions did not differ among land use systems, ranging from 12 ± 2 μg N m-2 h-1 for cacao agroforestry and secondary forest to 18 ± 2 μg N m-2 h-1 for maize. CH4 uptake was higher for maize (-30 ± 4 μg C m-2 h-1) than cacao agroforestry (-18 ± 2 μg C m-2 h-1) and intermediate rates were measured from secondary forests (-25 ± 4 μg C m-2 h-1). Combining these data with results from other studies in this area, we present chronosequence effects of land use change on trace gas emissions from natural forest, through maize cultivation, to cacao agroforestry (with or without fertilizer). Compared to the original forests, this typical land use change in the study area clearly led to higher N2O emissions and lower CH4 uptake with age of cacao agroforestry systems. We conclude that this common land use sequence in the area combined with the increasing use of fertilizer will strongly increase soil trace gas emissions. We suggest that the future hot spot regions of high N2O (and to a lesser extend NO) emissions in the tropics are those

  11. Research Needs for Carbon Management in Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Negra, C.; Lovejoy, T.; Ojima, D. S.; Ashton, R.; Havemann, T.; Eaton, J.

    2009-12-01

    Improved management of terrestrial carbon in agriculture, forestry, and other land use sectors is a necessary part of climate change mitigation. It is likely that governments will agree in Copenhagen in December 2009 to incentives for improved management of some forms of terrestrial carbon, including maintaining existing terrestrial carbon (e.g., avoiding deforestation) and creating new terrestrial carbon (e.g., afforestation, soil management). To translate incentives into changes in land management and terrestrial carbon stocks, a robust technical and scientific information base is required. All terrestrial carbon pools (and other greenhouse gases from the terrestrial system) that interact with the atmosphere at timescales less than centuries, and all land uses, have documented mitigation potential, however, most activity has focused on above-ground forest biomass. Despite research advances in understanding emissions reduction and sequestration associated with different land management techniques, there has not yet been broad-scale implementation of land-based mitigation activity in croplands, peatlands, grasslands and other land uses. To maximize long-term global terrestrial carbon volumes, further development of relevant data, methodologies and technologies are needed to complement policy and financial incentives. The Terrestrial Carbon Group, in partnership with UN-REDD agencies, the World Bank and CGIAR institutions, is reviewing literature, convening leading experts and surveying key research institutions to develop a Roadmap for Terrestrial Carbon: Research Needs for Implementation of Carbon Management in Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses. This work will summarize the existing knowledge base for emissions reductions and sequestration through land management as well as the current availability of tools and methods for measurement and monitoring of terrestrial carbon. Preliminary findings indicate a number of areas for future work. Enhanced information

  12. Protecting Future Biodiversity via Re-allocation of Future Land-use Change Patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chini, L. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Jantz, S.; Brooks, T.; Leon, C.; Waldhoff, S.; Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    Future scenarios, such as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), are typically designed to meet a radiative forcing target while also producing enough food and energy for a growing population. In the assessment process, impacts of these scenarios for other important variables such as biodiversity loss are considered 'downstream', after the future climate has been simulated within Earth System Models. However, the direct land-use impacts associated with future scenarios often have as much impact on these issues as the changing climate; in addition, many different patterns of land-use can result in the same radiative forcing target. In the case of biodiversity loss, one of the greatest contributors to species extinction is the loss of habitat such as primary forest, which is a direct result of land-use change decisions. By considering issues such as the preservation of future biodiversity 'up-front' in the scenario process, we can design a scenario that not only meets a radiative forcing target and feeds a growing planet, but also preserves as much habitat as possible through careful spatial allocation of future land-use change. Our Global Land-use Model (GLM) is used to provide 'harmonized' land-use data for the RCP process. GLM preserves as much information as possible from the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) while spatially allocating regional IAM land-use change data, ensuring a continuous transition from historical to future land-use states, and producing annual, gridded (0.5°×0.5°), fractional land-use states and all associated transitions. In this presentation we will present results from new GLM simulations in which land-use change decisions are constrained to meet the mutual goals of protecting important eco-regions (e.g. biodiversity hotspots) from future land-use change, providing enough food and fiber for a growing planet, and remaining consistent with the radiative forcing targets of the future scenarios. Trade-offs between agricultural

  13. Climatology (communication arising): rural land-use change and climate.

    PubMed

    Trenberth, Kevin E

    2004-01-15

    Kalnay and Cai claim that urbanization and land-use change have a major effect on the climate in the United States. They used surface temperatures obtained from NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalyses (NNR) and their difference compared with observed station surface temperatures as the basis for their conclusions, on the grounds that the NNR did not include these anthropogenic effects. However, we note that the NNR also overlooked other factors, such as known changes in clouds and in surface moisture, which are more likely to explain Kalnay and Cai's findings. Although urban heat-island effects are real in cities, direct estimates of the effects of rural land-use change indicate a cooling rather than a warming influence that is due to a greater reflection of sunlight.

  14. Disease emergence from global climate and land use change.

    PubMed

    Patz, Jonathan A; Olson, Sarah H; Uejio, Christopher K; Gibbs, Holly K

    2008-11-01

    Climate change and land use change can affect multiple infectious diseases of humans, acting either independently or synergistically. Expanded efforts in empiric and future scenario-based risk assessment are required to anticipate problems. Moreover, the many health impacts of climate and land use change must be examined in the context of the myriad other environmental and behavioral determinants of disease. To optimize prevention capabilities, upstream environmental approaches must be part of any intervention, rather than assaults on single agents of disease. Clinicians must develop stronger ties, not only to public health officials and scientists, but also to earth and environmental scientists and policy makers. Without such efforts, we will inevitably benefit our current generation at the cost of generations to come. PMID:19061763

  15. ASSESSING THE RELATIVE AND COMBINED IMPACTS OF FUTURE LAND-USE AND CLIMATE CHANGES ON NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this paper, we discuss the potential water quality impacts of future land-use and climate changes. The Little Miami River Basin was used as a case study. It is a predominantly agricultural watershed in southwestern Ohio (U.S.A.) that has experienced land-use modifications. ...

  16. Modeling biofuel expansion effects on land use change dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warner, Ethan; Inman, Daniel; Kunstman, Benjamin; Bush, Brian; Vimmerstedt, Laura; Peterson, Steve; Macknick, Jordan; Zhang, Yimin

    2013-03-01

    Increasing demand for crop-based biofuels, in addition to other human drivers of land use, induces direct and indirect land use changes (LUC). Our system dynamics tool is intended to complement existing LUC modeling approaches and to improve the understanding of global LUC drivers and dynamics by allowing examination of global LUC under diverse scenarios and varying model assumptions. We report on a small subset of such analyses. This model provides insights into the drivers and dynamic interactions of LUC (e.g., dietary choices and biofuel policy) and is not intended to assert improvement in numerical results relative to other works. Demand for food commodities are mostly met in high food and high crop-based biofuel demand scenarios, but cropland must expand substantially. Meeting roughly 25% of global transportation fuel demand by 2050 with biofuels requires >2 times the land used to meet food demands under a presumed 40% increase in per capita food demand. In comparison, the high food demand scenario requires greater pastureland for meat production, leading to larger overall expansion into forest and grassland. Our results indicate that, in all scenarios, there is a potential for supply shortfalls, and associated upward pressure on prices, of food commodities requiring higher land use intensity (e.g., beef) which biofuels could exacerbate.

  17. Human ecology in pathogenic landscapes: two hypotheses on how land use change drives viral emergence

    PubMed Central

    Murray, Kris. A.; Daszak, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The emergence of novel viral diseases is driven by socioeconomic, demographic and environmental changes. These include land use changes such as deforestation, agricultural expansion and habitat degradation. However, the links between land use change and disease emergence are poorly understood and likely complex. In this review, we propose two hypotheses for the mechanisms by which land use change can lead to viral emergence: 1) by perturbing disease dynamics in multi-host disease systems via impacts on cross-species transmission rates (the ‘perturbation’ hypothesis); and 2) by allowing exposure of novel hosts to a rich pool of pathogen diversity (the ‘pathogen pool’ hypothesis). We discuss ways that these two hypotheses might be tested using a combination of ecological and virological approaches, and how this may provide novel control and prevention strategies. PMID:23415415

  18. Land use intensification alters ecosystem multifunctionality via loss of biodiversity and changes to functional composition.

    PubMed

    Allan, Eric; Manning, Pete; Alt, Fabian; Binkenstein, Julia; Blaser, Stefan; Blüthgen, Nico; Böhm, Stefan; Grassein, Fabrice; Hölzel, Norbert; Klaus, Valentin H; Kleinebecker, Till; Morris, E Kathryn; Oelmann, Yvonne; Prati, Daniel; Renner, Swen C; Rillig, Matthias C; Schaefer, Martin; Schloter, Michael; Schmitt, Barbara; Schöning, Ingo; Schrumpf, Marion; Solly, Emily; Sorkau, Elisabeth; Steckel, Juliane; Steffen-Dewenter, Ingolf; Stempfhuber, Barbara; Tschapka, Marco; Weiner, Christiane N; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Werner, Michael; Westphal, Catrin; Wilcke, Wolfgang; Fischer, Markus

    2015-08-01

    Global change, especially land-use intensification, affects human well-being by impacting the delivery of multiple ecosystem services (multifunctionality). However, whether biodiversity loss is a major component of global change effects on multifunctionality in real-world ecosystems, as in experimental ones, remains unclear. Therefore, we assessed biodiversity, functional composition and 14 ecosystem services on 150 agricultural grasslands differing in land-use intensity. We also introduce five multifunctionality measures in which ecosystem services were weighted according to realistic land-use objectives. We found that indirect land-use effects, i.e. those mediated by biodiversity loss and by changes to functional composition, were as strong as direct effects on average. Their strength varied with land-use objectives and regional context. Biodiversity loss explained indirect effects in a region of intermediate productivity and was most damaging when land-use objectives favoured supporting and cultural services. In contrast, functional composition shifts, towards fast-growing plant species, strongly increased provisioning services in more inherently unproductive grasslands.

  19. Modeling Land Use/Cover Changes in an African Rural Landscape

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamusoko, C.; Aniya, M.

    2006-12-01

    Land use/cover changes are analyzed in the Bindura district of Zimbabwe, Africa through the integration of data from a time series of Landsat imagery (1973, 1989 and 2000), a household survey and GIS coverages. We employed a hybrid supervised/unsupervised classification approach to generate land use/cover maps from which landscape metrics were calculated. Population and other household variables were derived from a sample of surveyed villages, while road accessibility and slope were obtained from topographic maps and digital elevation model, respectively. Markov-cellular automata modeling approach that incorporates Markov chain analysis, cellular automata and multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) / multi-objective allocation (MOLA) procedures was used to simulate land use/cover changes. A GIS-based MCE technique computed transition potential maps, whereas transition areas were derived from the 1973-2000 land use/cover maps using the Markov chain analysis. A 5 x 5 cellular automata filter was used to develop a spatially explicit contiguity- weighting factor to change the cells based on its previous state and those of its neighbors, while MOLA resolved land use/cover class allocation conflicts. The kappa index of agreement was used for model validation. Observed trends in land use/cover changes indicate that deforestation and the encroachment of cultivation in woodland areas is a continuous trend in the study area. This suggests that economic activities driven by agricultural expansion were the main causes of landscape fragmentation, leading to landscape degradation. Rigorous calibration of transition potential maps done by a MCE algorithm and Markovian transition probabilities produced accurate inputs for the simulation of land use/cover changes. Overall standard kappa index of agreement ranged from 0.73 to 0.83, which is sufficient for simulating land use/cover changes in the study area. Land use/cover simulations under the 1989 and 2000 scenario indicated further

  20. Consequences of land use and land cover change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Slonecker, E. Terrence; Barnes, Christopher; Karstensen, Krista; Milheim, Lesley E.; Roig-Silva, Coral M.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Climate and Land Use Change Mission Area is one of seven USGS mission areas that focuses on making substantial scientific "...contributions to understanding how Earth systems interact, respond to, and cause global change". Using satellite and other remotely sensed data, USGS scientists monitor patterns of land cover change over space and time at regional, national, and global scales. These data are analyzed to understand the causes and consequences of changing land cover, such as economic impacts, effects on water quality and availability, the spread of invasive species, habitats and biodiversity, carbon fluctuations, and climate variability. USGS scientists are among the leaders in the study of land cover, which is a term that generally refers to the vegetation and artificial structures that cover the land surface. Examples of land cover include forests, grasslands, wetlands, water, crops, and buildings. Land use involves human activities that take place on the land. For example, "grass" is a land cover, whereas pasture and recreational parks are land uses that produce a cover of grass.

  1. Efficiency of different techniques to identify changes in land use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zornoza, Raúl; Mateix-Solera, Jorge; Gerrero, César

    2013-04-01

    The need for the development of sensitive and efficient methodologies for soil quality evaluation is increasing. The ability to assess soil quality and identify key soil properties that serve as indicators of soil function is complicated by the multiplicity of physical, chemical and biological factors that control soil processes. In the mountain region of the Mediterranean Basin of Spain, almond trees have been cultivated in terraced orchards for centuries. These crops are immersed in the Mediterranean forest scenery, configuring a mosaic landscape where orchards are integrated in the forest masses. In the last decades, almond orchards are being abandoned, leading to an increase in vegetation cover, since abandoned fields are naturally colonized by the surrounded natural vegetation. Soil processes and properties are expected to be associated with vegetation successional dynamics. Thus, the establishment of suitable parameters to monitor soil quality related to land use changes is particularly important to guarantee the regeneration of the mature community. In this study, we selected three land uses, constituted by forest, almond trees orchards, and orchards abandoned between 10 and 15 years previously to sampling. Sampling was carried out in four different locations in SE Spain. The main purpose was to evaluate if changes in management have significantly influenced different sets of soil characteristics. For this purpose, we used a discriminant analysis (DA). The different sets of soil characteristics tested in this study were 1: physical, chemical and biochemical properties; 2: soil near infrared (NIR) spectra; and 3: phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs). After the DA performed with the sets 1 and 2, the three land uses were clearly separated by the two first discriminant functions, and more than 85 % of the samples were correctly classified (grouped). Using the sets 3 and 4 for DA resulted in a slightly better separation of land uses, being more than 85% of the

  2. Land use changes assessment using spatial data: Case study in Cong river basin - Thai Nguyen City - Viet Nam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nguyen, Hieu

    Land use changes are being interested in most countries, especially in developing countries. Because land use changes always impacts on sustainable development not only in a region or a country but also in whole the world. Viet Nam is a developing country, in the last 10 years, land uses have rapidly changed in most provinces. Many of agriculture areas, forest areas have changed for various purposes as urban sprawl, establishing new industrial parks, public areas, mining and other land uses relate to human activities or economic function associated with a specific piece of land. Beside efficiencies of economic and society, then environment issues have been threatening serious pollution, are from land use changes. Remote sensing images application on studying land use changes, has been done in many countries around the world, and has brought high efficiencies. However, this application is still very new and limited in Viet Nam due to lacking of materials, tools, experts of remote sensing. This study used spatial data as Landsat TM images, SPOT5 images and land use planning maps to rapidly assess on happenings of land uses in the period 2000 -2010 in Cong river basin (Thai Nguyen City, Viet Nam), and to forecast the changes of land uses in the period 2010 - 2020. The results had a good accuracy and to be important references for authorities, policy makers in local land use.

  3. Estimating Impacts of Climate Change Policy on Land Use: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Agriculture is important to New Zealand’s economy. Like other primary producers, New Zealand strives to increase agricultural output while maintaining environmental integrity. Utilising modelling to explore the economic, environmental and land use impacts of policy is critical to understand the likely effects on the sector. Key deficiencies within existing land use and land cover change models are the lack of heterogeneity in farmers and their behaviour, the role that social networks play in information transfer, and the abstraction of the global and regional economic aspects within local-scale approaches. To resolve these issues we developed the Agent-based Rural Land Use New Zealand model. The model utilises a partial equilibrium economic model and an agent-based decision-making framework to explore how the cumulative effects of individual farmer’s decisions affect farm conversion and the resulting land use at a catchment scale. The model is intended to assist in the development of policy to shape agricultural land use intensification in New Zealand. We illustrate the model, by modelling the impact of a greenhouse gas price on farm-level land use, net revenue, and environmental indicators such as nutrient losses and soil erosion for key enterprises in the Hurunui and Waiau catchments of North Canterbury in New Zealand. Key results from the model show that farm net revenue is estimated to increase over time regardless of the greenhouse gas price. Net greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to decline over time, even under a no GHG price baseline, due to an expansion of forestry on low productivity land. Higher GHG prices provide a greater net reduction of emissions. While social and geographic network effects have minimal impact on net revenue and environmental outputs for the catchment, they do have an effect on the spatial arrangement of land use and in particular the clustering of enterprises. PMID:25996591

  4. Estimating impacts of climate change policy on land use: an agent-based modelling approach.

    PubMed

    Morgan, Fraser J; Daigneault, Adam J

    2015-01-01

    Agriculture is important to New Zealand's economy. Like other primary producers, New Zealand strives to increase agricultural output while maintaining environmental integrity. Utilising modelling to explore the economic, environmental and land use impacts of policy is critical to understand the likely effects on the sector. Key deficiencies within existing land use and land cover change models are the lack of heterogeneity in farmers and their behaviour, the role that social networks play in information transfer, and the abstraction of the global and regional economic aspects within local-scale approaches. To resolve these issues we developed the Agent-based Rural Land Use New Zealand model. The model utilises a partial equilibrium economic model and an agent-based decision-making framework to explore how the cumulative effects of individual farmer's decisions affect farm conversion and the resulting land use at a catchment scale. The model is intended to assist in the development of policy to shape agricultural land use intensification in New Zealand. We illustrate the model, by modelling the impact of a greenhouse gas price on farm-level land use, net revenue, and environmental indicators such as nutrient losses and soil erosion for key enterprises in the Hurunui and Waiau catchments of North Canterbury in New Zealand. Key results from the model show that farm net revenue is estimated to increase over time regardless of the greenhouse gas price. Net greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to decline over time, even under a no GHG price baseline, due to an expansion of forestry on low productivity land. Higher GHG prices provide a greater net reduction of emissions. While social and geographic network effects have minimal impact on net revenue and environmental outputs for the catchment, they do have an effect on the spatial arrangement of land use and in particular the clustering of enterprises.

  5. Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

    PubMed

    Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís

    2016-07-01

    Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. PMID:26950650

  6. Land use change and terrestrial carbon stocks in Senegal

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Woomer, P.L.; Tieszen, L.L.; Tappan, G.; Toure, A.; Sall, M.

    2004-01-01

    Environmental degradation resulting from long-term drought and land use change has affected terrestrial carbon (C) stocks within Africa's Sahel. We estimated Senegal's terrestrial carbon stocks in 1965, 1985, and 2000 using an inventory procedure involving satellite images revealing historical land use change, and recent field measurements of standing carbon stocks occurring in soil and plants. Senegal was divided into eight ecological zones containing 11 land uses. In 2000, savannas, cultivated lands, forests, and steppes were the four largest land uses in Senegal, occupying 70, 22, 2.7, and 2.3 percent of Senegal's 199,823km2. System C stocks ranged from 9tCha-1 in degraded savannas in the north, to 113tCha-1 in the remnant forests of the Senegal River Valley. This approach resulted in estimated total C stocks of 1019 and 727MTC between 1965 and 2000, respectively, indicating a loss of 292MTC over 35 years. The proportion of C residing in biomass decreased with time, from 55 percent in 1965 to 38 percent in 2000. Calculated terrestrial C flux for 1993 was -7.5MTCyear-1 and had declined by 17 percent over the previous 18 years. Most of the terrestrial C flux in 1993 was attributed to biomass C reduction. Human disturbance accounted for only 22 percent of biomass C loss in 1993, suggesting that the effects of long-term Sahelian drought continue to play an overriding role in ecosystem change. Some carbon mitigation strategies for Senegal were investigated, including potential C sequestration levels. Opportunities for C mitigation exist but are constrained by available knowledge and access to resources. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. GCAM 3.0 Agriculture and Land Use: Data Sources and Methods

    SciTech Connect

    Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Calvin, Katherine V.; Emanuel, William R.; Nathan, Mayda; Zhou, Yuyu

    2011-12-12

    This report presents the data processing methods used in the GCAM 3.0 agriculture and land use component, starting from all source data used, and detailing all calculations and assumptions made in generating the model inputs. The report starts with a brief introduction to modeling of agriculture and land use in GCAM 3.0, and then provides documentation of the data and methods used for generating the base-year dataset and future scenario parameters assumed in the model input files. Specifically, the report addresses primary commodity production, secondary (animal) commodity production, disposition of commodities, land allocation, land carbon contents, and land values.

  8. Modeling of land use and reservoir effects on nonpoint source pollution in a highly agricultural basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shu-Guang

    2012-01-01

    Nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is tightly linked to land use activities that determine the sources and magnitudes of pollutant loadings to stream water. The pollutant loads may also be alleviated within reservoirs because of the physical interception resulting from changed hydrological regimes and other biochemical processes. It is important but challenging to assess the NPS pollution processes with human effects due to the measurement limitations. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of human activities such as land uses and reservoir operation on the hydrological and NPS pollution processes in a highly agricultural area-the Iowa River Basin-using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The evaluation of model performance at multiple sites reveals that SWAT can consistently simulate the daily streamflow, and monthly/annual sediment and nutrient loads (nitrate nitrogen and mineral phosphorus) in the basin. We also used the calibrated model to estimate the trap efficiencies of sediment (~78%) and nutrients (~30%) in the Coralville Reservoir within the basin. These non-negligible effects emphasize the significance of incorporating the sediment and nutrient removal mechanisms into watershed system studies. The spatial quantification of the critical NPS pollution loads can help identify hot-spot areas that are likely locations for the best management practices.

  9. Modeling of land use and reservoir effects on nonpoint source pollution in a highly agricultural basin.

    PubMed

    Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shuguang

    2012-09-01

    Nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is tightly linked to land use activities that determine the sources and magnitudes of pollutant loadings to stream water. The pollutant loads may also be alleviated within reservoirs because of the physical interception resulting from changed hydrological regimes and other biochemical processes. It is important but challenging to assess the NPS pollution processes with human effects due to the measurement limitations. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of human activities such as land uses and reservoir operation on the hydrological and NPS pollution processes in a highly agricultural area-the Iowa River Basin-using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The evaluation of model performance at multiple sites reveals that SWAT can consistently simulate the daily streamflow, and monthly/annual sediment and nutrient loads (nitrate nitrogen and mineral phosphorus) in the basin. We also used the calibrated model to estimate the trap efficiencies of sediment (∼78%) and nutrients (∼30%) in the Coralville Reservoir within the basin. These non-negligible effects emphasize the significance of incorporating the sediment and nutrient removal mechanisms into watershed system studies. The spatial quantification of the critical NPS pollution loads can help identify hot-spot areas that are likely locations for the best management practices.

  10. Transformative optimisation of agricultural land use to meet future food demands.

    PubMed

    Koh, Lian Pin; Koellner, Thomas; Ghazoul, Jaboury

    2013-01-01

    The human population is expected to reach ∼9 billion by 2050. The ensuing demands for water, food and energy would intensify land-use conflicts and exacerbate environmental impacts. Therefore we urgently need to reconcile our growing consumptive needs with environmental protection. Here, we explore the potential of a land-use optimisation strategy to increase global agricultural production on two major groups of crops: cereals and oilseeds. We implemented a spatially-explicit computer simulation model across 173 countries based on the following algorithm: on any cropland, always produce the most productive crop given all other crops currently being produced locally and the site-specific biophysical, economic and technological constraints to production. Globally, this strategy resulted in net increases in annual production of cereal and oilseed crops from 1.9 billion to 2.9 billion tons (46%), and from 427 million to 481 million tons (13%), respectively, without any change in total land area harvested for cereals or oilseeds. This thought experiment demonstrates that, in theory, more optimal use of existing farmlands could help meet future crop demands. In practice there might be cultural, social and institutional barriers that limit the full realisation of this theoretical potential. Nevertheless, these constraints have to be weighed against the consequences of not producing enough food, particularly in regions already facing food shortages.

  11. Modeling of land use and reservoir effects on nonpoint source pollution in a highly agricultural basin.

    PubMed

    Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shuguang

    2012-09-01

    Nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is tightly linked to land use activities that determine the sources and magnitudes of pollutant loadings to stream water. The pollutant loads may also be alleviated within reservoirs because of the physical interception resulting from changed hydrological regimes and other biochemical processes. It is important but challenging to assess the NPS pollution processes with human effects due to the measurement limitations. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of human activities such as land uses and reservoir operation on the hydrological and NPS pollution processes in a highly agricultural area-the Iowa River Basin-using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The evaluation of model performance at multiple sites reveals that SWAT can consistently simulate the daily streamflow, and monthly/annual sediment and nutrient loads (nitrate nitrogen and mineral phosphorus) in the basin. We also used the calibrated model to estimate the trap efficiencies of sediment (∼78%) and nutrients (∼30%) in the Coralville Reservoir within the basin. These non-negligible effects emphasize the significance of incorporating the sediment and nutrient removal mechanisms into watershed system studies. The spatial quantification of the critical NPS pollution loads can help identify hot-spot areas that are likely locations for the best management practices. PMID:22790209

  12. Implications of land use change in tropical West Africa under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brücher, Tim; Claussen, Martin

    2015-04-01

    Northern Africa, and the Sahel in particular, are highly vulnerable to climate change, due to strong exposure to increasing temperature, precipitation variability, and population growth. A major link between climate and humans in this region is land use and associated land cover change, mainly where subsistence farming prevails. But how strongly does climate change affect land use and how strongly does land use feeds back into climate change? To which extent may climate-induced water, food and wood shortages exacerbate conflict potential and lead changes in land use and to migration? Estimates of possible changes in African climate vary among the Earth System Models participating in the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) exercise, except for the region adjacent to the Mediterranean Sea, where a significant decrease of precipitation emerges. While all models agree in a strong temperature increase, rainfall uncertainties for most parts of the Sahara, Sahel, and Sudan are higher. Here we present results of complementary experiments based on extreme and idealized land use change scenarios within a future climate.. We use the MPI-ESM forced with a strong green house gas scenario (RCP8.5) and apply an additional land use forcing by varying largely the intensity and kind of agricultural practice. By these transient experiments (until 2100) we elaborate the additional impact on climate due to strong land use forcing. However, the differences are mostly insignificant. The greenhouse gas caused temperature increase and the high variability in the West African Monsoon rainfall superposes the minor changes in climate due to land use. While simulated climate key variables like precipitation and temperature are not distinguishable from the CMIP5 RCP8.5 results, an additional greening is simulated, when crops are demanded. Crops have lower water usage than pastureland has. This benefits available soil water, which is taken up by the natural vegetation and makes it more

  13. Forecasting the effects of land-use change on forest rodents in Indiana.

    PubMed

    Rizkalla, Carol E; Swihart, Robert K

    2009-11-01

    Forest cover in the upper Wabash River basin in Indiana was fragmented due to agricultural conversion beginning more than 175 years ago. Currently, urban expansion is an important driver of land-use change in the basin. A land transformation model was applied to the basin to forecast land use from 2000 to 2020. We assessed the effect of this projected land-use change scenario on five forest rodent species at three scales: using occupancy models at the patch level, proportional occupancy models at the landscape level, and ecologically scaled landscape indices to assess the change in connectivity at the watershed level. At the patch and landscape scales, occupancy models had low predictability but suggest that gray squirrels are most susceptible to land-use change. At the watershed scale, declines in connectivity did not correspond with the decline of forest. This study highlights the importance of map resolution and consideration of matrix elements in constructing forecast models. Unforeseen drivers of land use, such as changing economic incentives, may also have important ramifications.

  14. Assessment of watershed regionalization for the land use change parameterization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Randusová, Beata; Kohnová, Silvia; Studvová, Zuzana; Marková, Romana; Nosko, Radovan

    2016-04-01

    The estimation of design discharges and water levels of extreme floods is one of the most important parts of the design process for a large number of engineering projects and studies. Floods and other natural hazards initiated by climate, soil, and land use changes are highly important in the 21st century. Flood risks and design flood estimation is particularly challenging. Methods of design flood estimation can be applied either locally or regionally. To obtain the design values in such cases where no recorded data exist, many countries have adopted procedures that fit the local conditions and requirements. One of these methods is the Soil Conservation Service - Curve number (SCS-CN) method which is often used in design flood estimation for ungauged sites. The SCS-CN method is an empirical rainfall-runoff model developed by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (formerly called the Soil Conservation Service or SCS). The runoff curve number (CN) is based on the hydrological soil characteristics, land use, land management and antecedent saturation conditions of soil. This study is focused on development of the SCS-CN methodology for the changing land use conditions in Slovak basins (with the pilot site of the Myjava catchment), which regionalize actual state of land use data and actual rainfall and discharge measurements of the selected river basins. In this study the state of the water erosion and sediment transport along with a subsequent proposal of erosion control measures was analyzed as well. The regionalized SCS-CN method was subsequently used for assessing the effectiveness of this control measure to reduce runoff from the selected basin. For the determination of the sediment transport from the control measure to the Myjava basin, the SDR (Sediment Delivery Ratio) model was used.

  15. UK land-use change and its impact on SOC: 1925-2007

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, M. J.; Worrall, F.; Smith, Pete; Bhogal, Anne; Black, Helaina; Lilly, Allan; Barraclough, Declan; Merrington, Graham

    2011-12-01

    The contribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) to atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations could increase due to rising temperatures, agricultural land-management, and land-use change. Here the results of a modeling study are presented, which reviews the changing patterns of UK land-use from 1925 to 2007, and estimates the contribution that these changes have had toward UK GHG emissions. The study uses a large database of SOC concentrations from which SOC stocks are estimated for land-uses typical of the UK, and combines this with literature values of transition times for SOC to adjust to a new concentration following land-use change. The model was designed to be used with limited input data, allowing the impacts of historical land-use change, lacking in site specific soil and vegetation change data to be assessed. This study suggests that from 1925 to 2007 the UK's soils have acted as a net carbon sink as a result of land-use change, sequestering a total of 102 Tg C. This represents a 5% net gain in total SOC stocks, and an average increase of 1.9 Tg C/year (inter-quartile range: 0.19-3.12 Tg C/yr). When the reported losses of SOC due to climate change are compared to the gains resulting from land-use change the UK's soils are a sink of carbon, with the gains from land-use change offsetting those due to climate change. This overall sink is the result of an increase in the area of woodland, and conversion of arable land to permanent grassland. The greatest sequestration in any one year occurred in 1993 and coincides with the introduction of set-aside. The largest SOC flux to the atmosphere occurred in 1942 following arable expansion, emitting 12.3 Tg C in one year. This flux is equivalent to almost 10% of the UK's current total GHG emissions, indicating that such land-use change should be avoided in the future if targets to reduce GHG emissions are to be met.

  16. From grass to grape - land use change and soil structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eden, Marie; Völkel, Jörg

    2015-04-01

    In 1997 a ~0.5 ha vineyard was established on land formerly used as pasture; located in Namibia between the Naukluft and Tsaris mountains, some 50 to 60 km east of the Namib Sand Sea. Fossil water from springs along a geological fault provide the basis for this endeavour. In September 2013 the cultivated area has been enlarged by another 3 ha. In August 2014 soil samples were taken from the differently-aged vineyards and two adjacent spots outside the cropped areas. Additionally soil samples were taken from a neighbouring farm, which is irregularly used as pasture. The two locations are approximately 6.5 km apart. Undisturbed cores were extracted along with bulk soil samples to determine a suite of physical and chemical parameters. These parameters include texture, bulk density, water retention, air permeability, soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N), pH, electrical conductivity, and cation exchange capacity. The soil of the older vineyard showed the highest values of SOC (%) compared to both, the younger vineyard and pasture soils. Also N (%) levels were higher in the old vineyard soil. These differences are ascribed to the effects of land use change. Cultivating wine for 17 years and the associated farming practices influenced the soil properties. The young vineyard in comparison has not (yet) exerted a similar impact onto the soil as the land use change took place less than a year prior to sampling. The young vineyard reflects to some extent the initial conditions of the old vineyard, this can be used to predict the future impact of farming for this soil. Pasture is the predominant type of land use in this area. In order to compare one type of land use with another, the pasture soils from the neighbouring farm can be used. Contents of SOC and N are within a similar range for soils from the young vineyard and the pasture, which indicates that the recent land use change has not yet manifested itself in these parameters. However the old vineyard differs from the

  17. Threats and opportunities for freshwater conservation under future land use change scenarios in the United States.

    PubMed

    Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Januchowski-Hartley, Stephanie R; Pracheil, Brenda M; McIntyre, Peter B; Plantinga, Andrew J; Lewis, David J; Radeloff, Volker C

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems provide vital resources for humans and support high levels of biodiversity, yet are severely threatened throughout the world. The expansion of human land uses, such as urban and crop cover, typically degrades water quality and reduces freshwater biodiversity, thereby jeopardizing both biodiversity and ecosystem services. Identifying and mitigating future threats to freshwater ecosystems requires forecasting where land use changes are most likely. Our goal was to evaluate the potential consequences of future land use on freshwater ecosystems in the coterminous United States by comparing alternative scenarios of land use change (2001-2051) with current patterns of freshwater biodiversity and water quality risk. Using an econometric model, each of our land use scenarios projected greater changes in watersheds of the eastern half of the country, where freshwater ecosystems already experience higher stress from human activities. Future urban expansion emerged as a major threat in regions with high freshwater biodiversity (e.g., the Southeast) or severe water quality problems (e.g., the Midwest). Our scenarios reflecting environmentally oriented policies had some positive effects. Subsidizing afforestation for carbon sequestration reduced crop cover and increased natural vegetation in areas that are currently stressed by low water quality, while discouraging urban sprawl diminished urban expansion in areas of high biodiversity. On the other hand, we found that increases in crop commodity prices could lead to increased agricultural threats in areas of high freshwater biodiversity. Our analyses illustrate the potential for policy changes and market factors to influence future land use trends in certain regions of the country, with important consequences for freshwater ecosystems. Successful conservation of aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem services in the United States into the future will require attending to the potential threats and opportunities

  18. Modeling socioeconomic and ecologic aspects of land-use change. A case study of Central Rondonia

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, V.H.; Pedlowski, M.A.; O`Neill, R.V.; Southworth, F.

    1992-11-01

    Land use change is one of the major factors affecting global environmental conditions. Prevalent types of land-use change include replacing forests with agriculture, mines or ranches; forest degradation from collection of firewood; and forest logging. A global effect of wide-scale deforestation is an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which may affect climate. Regional effects include loss of biodiversity and disruption of hydrologic regimes. Local effects include soil erosion, siltation and decreases in soil fertility, loss of extractive reserves, and disruption of indigenous people. Modeling land use change requires combining socioeconomic and ecological factors because socioeconomic forces frequently initiate land-use change and are affected by the subsequent ecological degradation. This paper describes a modeling system that integrates submodels of human colonization and impacts to estimate patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration and land use scenarios. Immigration which follows road building or paving is a major factor in the rapid deforestation of previously inaccessible areas. Roads facilitate colonization, allow access for large machines, and provide transportation routes for mort of raw materials and produce.

  19. Effect of dramatic land use change on gaseous pollutant emissions from biomass burning in Northeastern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Hongmei; Tong, Daniel Q.; Gao, Chuanyu; Wang, Guoping

    2015-02-01

    Biomass burning contributes a substantial amount of gas and particle emissions to the atmosphere. As China's breadbasket, northeast China has experienced dramatic land use change in the past century, converting approximately 55 × 104 ha of wetland into farmland to feed a rapidly growing population. This study combines measured emission factors of dominant crops (rice and soybean) and wetland plants (Calamagrostis angu-stifolia, Carex lasiocarpa, Carex pseudo-curaica) and remote sensing land use data to estimate the effect of the unprecedented land use change on gaseous pollutants emissions from biomass burning. Our biomass burning emission estimates resulting from land use changes have increased because of increased post-harvest crop residue burning and decreased burning of wetland plants. From 1986 to 2005, the total emissions of CO2, CO, CXHY, SO2 and NO have increased by 18.6%, 35.7%, 26.8%, 66.2% and 33.2%, respectively. We have found two trends in agricultural burning: increased dryland crop residue burning and decreased wetland (rice paddy) burning. Our results revealed that the large scale land use change in northeastern China has induced more active biomass-burning emissions. The regional emission inventory of gaseous pollutants derived from this work may be used to support further examination of the subsequent effects on regional climate and air quality simulations with numerical atmospheric models.

  20. Analyzing the Food-Fuel-Environment Tri-Lemma Facing World Agriculture: Global Land Use in the Coming Century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hertel, T. W.; Steinbuks, J.

    2011-12-01

    The number of people which the world must feed is expected to increase by another 3 billion people by 2100. When coupled with significant nutritional improvements for the 2.1 billion people currently living on less than $2/day, this translates into a very substantial rise in the demand for agricultural production. At the same time, the growing use of biomass for energy generation has introduced an important new source of industrial demand in agricultural markets. To compound matters, water, a key input into agricultural production, is rapidly diminishing in availability in large parts of the world and many soils are degrading. In addition, agriculture and forestry are increasingly envisioned as key sectors for climate change mitigation policy. Any serious attempt to reduce land-based emissions will involve changes in the way farming is conducted, as well as placing limits on the expansion of farming - particularly in the tropics, where most of the agricultural land conversion has come at the expense of forests, either directly, or indirectly via a cascading of land use requirements with crops moving into pasture and pasture into forest. Finally, agriculture and forestry are likely to be the economic sectors whose productivity is most sharply affected by climate change. In light of these challenges facing the global farm and food system, this paper will review the main sources of supply and demand for the world's cropland, and then provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of these forces on global land use over the coming century. The model incorporates forward looking behavior and examines competition between land used for ecosystem services, forestry, food and fuel. Explicit account is taken of emissions associated with both the intensive and extensive margins of agricultural expansion, as well as carbon sequestration and energy combustion. Key findings include: (a) energy prices and environmental policies will be increasingly important drivers of land use

  1. Modeling Soil Organic Carbon for Agricultural Land Use Under Various Management Practices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotamarthi, V. R.; Drewniak, B.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Jacob, R. L.

    2009-12-01

    Bioenergy is generating tremendous interest as an alternative energy source that is both environmentally friendly and economically competitive. The amount of land designated for agriculture is expected to expand, including changes in the current distribution of crops, as demand for biofuels increases as a carbon neutral alternative fuel source. However, the influence of agriculture on the carbon cycle is complex, and varies depending on land use change and management practices. The purpose of this research is to integrate agriculture in the carbon-nitrogen based Community Land Model (CLM) to evaluate the above and below ground carbon storage for corn, soybean, and wheat crop lands. The new model, CLM-Crop simulates carbon allocation during four growth stages, a soybean nitrogen fixation scheme, fertilizer, and harvest practices. We present results from this model simulation, which includes the impact of a new dynamic roots module to simulate the changing root structure and depth with growing season based on the availability of water and nitrogen in the root zone and a retranslocation scheme to simulate redistribution of nitrogen from leaves, roots, and stems to grain during organ development for crop yields, leaf area index (LAI), carbon allocation, and changes in soil carbon budgets under various practices such as fertilizer and residue management. Simulated crop yields for corn, soybean and wheat are in general agreement with measurements. Initial model results indicate a loss of soil organic carbon over cultivated lands after removal of natural vegetation which continues in the following years. Soil carbon in crop lands is a strong function of the residue management and has the potential to impact crop yields significantly.

  2. Projecting Future Land Use Changes in West Africa Driven by Climate and Socioeconomic Factors: Uncertainties and Implications for Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

    2015-12-01

    Land use changes constitute an important regional climate change forcing in West Africa, a region of strong land-atmosphere coupling. At the same time, climate change can be an important driver for land use, although its importance relative to the impact of socio-economic factors may vary significant from region to region. This study compares the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa and examines various sources of uncertainty using a land use projection model (LandPro) that accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. Future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate model, and future changes of food demand is projected using a model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. The impact of human decision-making on land use was explicitly considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios to examine the range of uncertainties in projecting future land use. Without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease of crop yield together with increase of food demand are found to cause a significant increase in agricultural land use at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century, and the resulting land use land cover changes are found to feed back to the regional climate in a way that exacerbates the negative impact of climate on crop yield. Analysis of results from multiple decision-making scenarios suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed decision making to minimize land use could be very effective in many parts of the region.

  3. LUMINATE: Linking agricultural land use, local water quality and Gulf of Mexico hypoxia

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In this paper, we discuss the importance of developing integrated assessment models to support the design and implementation of policies to address water quality problems associated with agricultural pollution. We describe a new modelling system, LUMINATE, which links land use decisions made at the...

  4. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

    PubMed

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

    2016-10-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale. PMID:27343434

  5. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

    PubMed

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

    2016-10-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale.

  6. Land-use and land-cover change in montane mainland southeast Asia.

    PubMed

    Fox, Jefferson; Vogler, John B

    2005-09-01

    This paper summarizes land-cover and land-use change at eight sites in Thailand, Yunnan (China), Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos over the last 50 years. Project methodology included incorporating information collected from a combination of semiformal, key informant, and formal household interviews with the development of spatial databases based on aerial photographs, satellite images, topographic maps, and GPS data. Results suggest that land use (e.g. swidden cultivation) and land cover (e.g. secondary vegetation) have remained stable and the minor amount of land-use change that has occurred has been a change from swidden to monocultural cash crops. Results suggest that two forces will increasingly determine land-use systems in this region. First, national land tenure policies-the nationalization of forest lands and efforts to increase control over upland resources by central governments-will provide a push factor making it increasingly difficult for farmers to maintain their traditional swidden land-use practices. Second, market pressures-the commercialization of subsistence resources and the substitution of commercial crops for subsistence crops-will provide a pull factor encouraging farmers to engage in new and different forms of commercial agriculture. These results appear to be robust as they come from eight studies conducted over the last decade. But important questions remain in terms of what research protocols are needed, if any, when linking social science data with remotely sensed data for understanding human-environment interactions.

  7. [Land use pattern change in Ejin Delta of Northwest China during 1930-2010].

    PubMed

    Nian, Yan-yun; Wang, Xiao-li; Chen, Lu

    2015-03-01

    The land use and landscape pattern in the lower reaches of the arid inland river basin is meaningful to water resource allocation. Based on the land use data in 1930, 1961, 1990, 2000, 2010, the purpose of this study was to quantitatively analyze the change of landscape pattern in the Ejin Delta in the lower reaches of the Heihe River Basin, a typical inland river basin in Northwest China. The results showed that the desert area accounted for 73.4% of the total research area in 2010, and the grassland 20.8%. During the past 80 years, the grassland, farmland and construction land increased. The transformation of land use types were characterized by switching to farmland and construction land. The fragmentation and. diversity of the landscape increased, while the dominance of the landscape decreased. The landscape pattern obviously lied on the water resource and had regional diversity. Land use changes tended to make the landscape well-distributed, diverse and fragmentized. At last, the driving factors and ecological environment effects of land use change were discussed. In a word, to ensure harmonious development between human and eco-hydrology, suggestions such as planning ecological resettlement, limiting farmland area, developing precision agriculture and increasing the proportion of ecological water use should be put forward.

  8. Conversion of prime agricultural land to urban land uses in Kansas City

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shaklee, R. V.

    1976-01-01

    In an expanding urban environment, agriculture and urban land uses are the two primary competitors for regional land resources. As a result of an increasing awareness of the effects which urban expansion has upon the regional environment, the conversion of prime agricultural land to urban land uses has become a point of concern to urban planners. A study was undertaken for the Kansas City Metropolitan Region, to determine the rate at which prime agricultural land has been converted to urban land uses over a five year period from 1969 to 1974. Using NASA high altitude color infrared imagery acquired over the city in October, 1969 and in May, 1974 to monitor the extent and location of urban expansion in the interim period, it was revealed that 42% of that expansion had occurred upon land classified as having prime agricultural potential. This involved a total of 10,727 acres of prime agricultural land and indicated a 7% increase over the 1969 which showed that 35% of the urban area had been developed on prime agricultural land.

  9. Association between agricultural land use and West Nile virus antibody prevalence in Iowa birds.

    PubMed

    Randall, Natalie J; Blitvich, Bradley J; Blanchong, Julie A

    2013-10-01

    In the Plains states of the central United States, research suggests that the prevalence of West Nile virus (WNV) disease in humans is higher in agricultural areas than in nonagricultural areas. In contrast, there is limited information about WNV exposure in birds, the primary amplifying host of WNV, in agriculturally dominated landscapes. We evaluated whether exposure to WNV in peridomestic birds sampled in central Iowa varied with the proportion of land use devoted to agriculture. Over the summers of 2009 and 2010, we captured birds in sites comprising gradients of agricultural, urban, and natural land uses, and tested their sera for antibodies to WNV. Overall, WNV antibody prevalence was low (2.3%). Our results suggest that agricultural land use had minimal influence on WNV exposure in birds. We conclude that birds are not likely to be useful indicators of WNV activity in agricultural areas in the Plains states despite human risk being highest in those areas. Antibody prevalence for WNV, however, was higher in American Robins, Mourning Doves, and Northern Cardinals than in other species, making these species potentially useful for monitoring WNV activity in the US Plains states.

  10. Decree No. 922 on land use and exercise of agricultural activities, 19 May 1989.

    PubMed

    1989-01-01

    The Bulgarian Decree 922, May 19, 1989, regulates land use and the exercise of agricultural activities. It stipulates in general that agricultural activities and land use will be based on the principles of company organization, ensuring the unity and indivisibility of socialist property and the variety of forms of land use and management, using collective farms and companies. Citizens may engage in agricultural activities without having a registered company; users of farmland must protect the environment; observe veterinary, plant protection, and sanitary hygiene regulations; and protect and improve soil fertility. Farms and other companies will carry out their activities under equal conditions, may sell their commodities may set up an association for the protection of their economic and social interests, and may establish agricultural stock exchanges and other cooperatives in accordance with stipulated procedures. Individual farms include an individual farmer or several farmers. Farmers may rent or purchase agricultural equipment without restriction as to model, capacity, or other features. Limitations apply on the number of workers employed on a nonseasonal basis. Farmers may form associations for specified purposes. Taxation is based on the general income tax law. Piece rate is a form of organization and payment of labor in agriculture; written agreements are required regarding wages, quality, quantity, deadlines, and supplies furnished. Lease contracts must be in writing, be registered by the municipal people's council at the location of the project, and contain specified information.

  11. U.S. Biofuel Policies and Domestic Shifts in Agricultural Land Use and Water Balances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teter, J.; Yeh, S.; Mishra, G. S.

    2014-12-01

    Policies promoting domestic biofuels production could lead to significant changes in cropping patterns. Types of direct and indirect land use change include: switching among crops (displacement), expanding cropped area (extensification), and altering water/soil management practices (e.g. irrigation, tillage) (intensification). Most studies of biofuels water use impacts calculate the water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/total evapotranspired water per unit energy of biofuels. But estimates based on this approach are sensitive to assumptions (e.g. co-product allocation, system boundaries), and do not convey policy-relevant information, as highlighted by the issue of land use change. We address these shortcomings by adopting a scenario-based approach that combines economic modeling with crop-water modeling of major crops and biofuel feedstocks. This allows us to holistically compare differences in water balances across policy scenarios in an integrated economic/agricultural system. We compare high spatial resolution water balance estimates under three hypothetical policy scenarios: 1) a counterfactual no-policy scenario, 2) modified Renewable Fuels Standard mandates (M-RFS2), & 3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard plus a modified RFS2 scenario (LCFS+RFS2). Differences between scenarios in crop water balances (i.e. transpiration, evaporation, runoff, groundwater infiltration, & irrigation) are regional and are a function of changes in land use patterns (i.e. displacement, intensification, & extensification), plus variation in crop water-use characteristics. Cropped land area increases 6.2% and 1.6% under M-RFS2 and LCFS+RFS2 scenarios, respectively, by 2030. Both policy scenarios lead to reductions in net irrigation volumes nationally compared to the no-policy scenario, though more irrigation occurs in regions of the Midwest and West. The LCFS+RFS2 reduces net irrigation water use by 3.5 times more than M-RFS2. However, both policies drive

  12. The Impact of Land Use Change on Primary Stream Organic and Inorganic Carbon Export

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelsey, S. A.; Bauer, J. E.; Grottoli, A. G.; Huey Sanders, T. M.; Matsui, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Terrestrial land use may impact both the amounts of and characteristics of organic and inorganic carbon (OC and IC, respectively) entering aquatic ecosystems. Better understanding of how different land uses alter carbon characteristics and export fluxes from watersheds may lead to better management practices for retaining OC in terrestrial habitats and therefore mitigate CO2 emissions from freshwater ecosystems where terrestrial OC may be more rapidly respired. We examined the fluxes and δ13C and ∆14C signatures of dissolved IC (DIC), dissolved OC (DOC), and particulate OC (POC) exported from 6 watersheds with differing land use at the North Appalachian Experimental Watershed (NAEW) in Coshocton county in northeastern Ohio to assess whether differences in land use are related to variability in the export fluxes and isotopic characteristics of OC and IC pools. We used a Bayesian mixing model (MixSIR) to determine how the relative contributions of potential carbon sources to DIC, DOC, and POC change as a function of watershed land use. Mixing model results from each season were used to approximate relative annual contributions of potential sources to DIC, DOC, and POC export fluxes from each watershed. We found that agricultural land uses (i.e., corn, under both conventional till and no-till management) experienced the greatest degree of disturbance and had the greatest carbon export fluxes. However, the relative extent to which soil OC contributed to export fluxes compared to corn biomass varied as a function of tillage practices. In addition, nonparametric multidimensional scaling (NMDS), based on the δ13C and ∆14C data and mixing model results for DIC, DOC and POC export fluxes, separated non-corn watersheds into 2 further classes of disturbance: moderate disturbance (pasture and mixed land use) and low disturbance (forest). These findings suggest that land use has a measurable impact on the concentration and characteristics of watershed C export fluxes.

  13. Modeling phosphorus in the Lake Allatoona watershed using SWAT: II. Effect of land use change.

    PubMed

    Lin, Z; Radcliffe, D E; Risse, L M; Romeis, J J; Jackson, C R

    2009-01-01

    Lake Allatoona is a large reservoir northeast of metropolitan Atlanta, GA, threatened by excessive algal growth. We used the calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models developed in our companion paper to estimate the annual P load to Lake Allatoona in 1992 and in 2001 after significant changes occurred in land use. Land use data in 1992 and 2001 from the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium showed that forest land use decreased during this period by about 20%, urban land use increased by about 225%, and pasture land uses increased by about 50%. Simulation results showed that the P load to Lake Allatoona increased from 176.5 to 207.3 Mg, which were 87.8% and 103.1%, respectively, of the total P (TP) annual cap (201 Mg) set by the Georgia Environmental Protection Division (GAEPD) for discharge into Lake Allatoona. In the early 1990s, the greatest sources of the TP load to Lake Allatoona (and their percentages of the total load) were pasture (33.6%), forest (27.5%), and point sources (25.0%). Urban land uses contributed about 6.0% and row-crop agriculture contributed about 6.8%. A decade later, the greatest two TP sources were pasture (52.7%) and urban (20.9%) land uses. Point-source P loads decreased significantly to 11.6%. Permit limits on poultry processing plants reduced the point-source P loads, but increasing urban and pasture land uses increased nonpoint sources of P. To achieve further reductions in the P load to Lake Allatoona, contributions from pasture and urban nonpoint sources will need to be addressed.

  14. Increased influence of nitrogen limitation on CO2 emissions from future land use and land-use change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jain, A. K.; Meiyappan, P.; House, J.

    2015-12-01

    In the latest projections of future greenhouse gas emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), few Earth System Models included the effect of nitrogen limitation, a key process limiting forest regrowth. We estimate the impacts of nitrogen limitation on the CO2 emissions from land use and land-use change (LULUC), including wood harvest, for the period 1900-2100. We use a land-surface model that includes a fully coupled carbon and nitrogen cycle, and accounts for forest regrowth processes following agricultural abandonment and wood harvest. Future projections are based on the four Representation Concentration Pathways used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and we account for uncertainty in future climate for each scenario based on ensembles of climate model outputs. Results show that excluding nitrogen limitation will underestimate global LULUC emissions by 34-52 PgC (20-30%) during the 20th century (range across three different historical LULUC reconstructions) and by 128-187 PgC (90-150%) during the 21st century (range across the four IPCC scenarios). The full range for estimated LULUC emissions during the 21st century including climate model uncertainty is 91 to 227 PgC (with nitrogen limitation included). The underestimation increases with time because: (1) Projected annual wood harvest rates from forests summed over the 21st century are 380-1080% higher compared to those of the 20th century, resulting in more regrowing secondary forests, (2) Nitrogen limitation reduces the CO2 fertilization effect on net primary production of regrowing secondary forests following wood harvest and agricultural abandonment, and (3) Nitrogen limitation effect is aggravated by the gradual loss of soil nitrogen from LULUC disturbance. Our study implies that: (1) Nitrogen limitation of CO2 uptake is substantial and sensitive to nitrogen inputs, (2) If LULUC emissions are larger than previously estimated in studies without nitrogen limitation, then meeting

  15. Increased influence of nitrogen limitation on CO2 emissions from future land use and land use change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meiyappan, Prasanth; Jain, Atul K.; House, Joanna I.

    2015-09-01

    In the latest projections of future greenhouse gas emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), few Earth System Models included the effect of nitrogen limitation, a key process limiting forest regrowth. Few included forest management (wood harvest). We estimate the impacts of nitrogen limitation on the CO2 emissions from land use and land use change (LULUC), including wood harvest, for the period 1900-2100. We use a land surface model that includes a fully coupled carbon and nitrogen cycle and accounts for forest regrowth processes following agricultural abandonment and wood harvest. Future projections are based on the four Representation Concentration Pathways used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and we account for uncertainty in future climate for each scenario based on ensembles of climate model outputs. Results show that excluding nitrogen limitation will underestimate global LULUC emissions by 34-52 PgC (20-30%) during the 20th century (range across three different historical LULUC reconstructions) and by 128-187 PgC (90-150%) during the 21st century (range across the four IPCC scenarios). The full range for estimated LULUC emissions during the 21st century including climate model uncertainty is 91 to 227 PgC (with nitrogen limitation included). The underestimation increases with time because (1) projected annual wood harvest rates from forests summed over the 21st century are 380-1080% higher compared to those of the 20th century, resulting in more regrowing secondary forests; (2) nitrogen limitation reduces the CO2 fertilization effect on net primary production of regrowing secondary forests following wood harvest and agricultural abandonment; and (3) nitrogen limitation effect is aggravated by the gradual loss of soil nitrogen from LULUC disturbance. Our study implies that (1) nitrogen limitation of CO2 uptake is substantial and sensitive to nitrogen inputs; (2) if LULUC emissions are larger than previously estimated in studies

  16. Impacts of land-use change to ecosystem services

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stohlgren, Tom; Holcombe, Tracy R.

    2013-01-01

    Increasing human populations on the landscape and globe coincide with increasing demands for food, energy, and other natural resources, with generally negative impacts to wildlife habitat, air and water quality, and natural scenery. Here we define and describe the impacts of land-use change on ecosystem services – the services that ecosystems provide humans such as filtering air and water, providing food, resources, recreation, and esthetics. We show how the human footprint is rapidly expanding due to population growth, demand for resources, and globalization. Increased trade and transportation has brought all the continents back together, creating new challenges for conserving native species and ecosystems.

  17. An inexact risk management model for agricultural land-use planning under water shortage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Wei; Feng, Changchun; Dai, Chao; Li, Yongping; Li, Chunhui; Liu, Ming

    2016-09-01

    Water resources availability has a significant impact on agricultural land-use planning, especially in a water shortage area such as North China. The random nature of available water resources and other uncertainties in an agricultural system present risk for land-use planning and may lead to undesirable decisions or potential economic loss. In this study, an inexact risk management model (IRM) was developed for supporting agricultural land-use planning and risk analysis under water shortage. The IRM model was formulated through incorporating a conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) constraint into an inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) framework, and could be used to control uncertainties expressed as not only probability distributions but also as discrete intervals. The measure of risk about the second-stage penalty cost was incorporated into the model so that the trade-off between system benefit and extreme expected loss could be analyzed. The developed model was applied to a case study in the Zhangweinan River Basin, a typical agricultural region facing serious water shortage in North China. Solutions of the IRM model showed that the obtained first-stage land-use target values could be used to reflect decision-makers' opinions on the long-term development plan. The confidence level α and maximum acceptable risk loss β could be used to reflect decisionmakers' preference towards system benefit and risk control. The results indicated that the IRM model was useful for reflecting the decision-makers' attitudes toward risk aversion and could help seek cost-effective agricultural land-use planning strategies under complex uncertainties.

  18. A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

    PubMed Central

    Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

    2015-01-01

    A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392

  19. A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies.

    PubMed

    Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

    2015-01-01

    A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001-2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified.

  20. Flood projections within the Niger River Basin under future land use and climate change.

    PubMed

    Aich, Valentin; Liersch, Stefan; Vetter, Tobias; Fournet, Samuel; Andersson, Jafet C M; Calmanti, Sandro; van Weert, Frank H A; Hattermann, Fred F; Paton, Eva N

    2016-08-15

    This study assesses future flood risk in the Niger River Basin (NRB), for the first time considering the simultaneous effects of both projected climate change and land use changes. For this purpose, an ecohydrological process-based model (SWIM) was set up and validated for past climate and land use dynamics of the entire NRB. Model runs for future flood risks were conducted with an ensemble of 18 climate models, 13 of them dynamically downscaled from the CORDEX Africa project and five statistically downscaled Earth System Models. Two climate and two land use change scenarios were used to cover a broad range of potential developments in the region. Two flood indicators (annual 90th percentile and the 20-year return flood) were used to assess the future flood risk for the Upper, Middle and Lower Niger as well as the Benue. The modeling results generally show increases of flood magnitudes when comparing a scenario period in the near future (2021-2050) with a base period (1976-2005). Land use effects are more uncertain, but trends and relative changes for the different catchments of the NRB seem robust. The dry areas of the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of the basin show a particularly high sensitivity to climatic and land use changes, with an alarming increase of flood magnitudes in parts. A scenario with continuing transformation of natural vegetation into agricultural land and urbanization intensifies the flood risk in all parts of the NRB, while a "regreening" scenario can reduce flood magnitudes to some extent. Yet, land use change effects were smaller when compared to the effects of climate change. In the face of an already existing adaptation deficit to catastrophic flooding in the region, the authors argue for a mix of adaptation and mitigation efforts in order to reduce the flood risk in the NRB. PMID:27110979

  1. A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies.

    PubMed

    Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

    2015-01-01

    A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001-2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392

  2. Flood projections within the Niger River Basin under future land use and climate change.

    PubMed

    Aich, Valentin; Liersch, Stefan; Vetter, Tobias; Fournet, Samuel; Andersson, Jafet C M; Calmanti, Sandro; van Weert, Frank H A; Hattermann, Fred F; Paton, Eva N

    2016-08-15

    This study assesses future flood risk in the Niger River Basin (NRB), for the first time considering the simultaneous effects of both projected climate change and land use changes. For this purpose, an ecohydrological process-based model (SWIM) was set up and validated for past climate and land use dynamics of the entire NRB. Model runs for future flood risks were conducted with an ensemble of 18 climate models, 13 of them dynamically downscaled from the CORDEX Africa project and five statistically downscaled Earth System Models. Two climate and two land use change scenarios were used to cover a broad range of potential developments in the region. Two flood indicators (annual 90th percentile and the 20-year return flood) were used to assess the future flood risk for the Upper, Middle and Lower Niger as well as the Benue. The modeling results generally show increases of flood magnitudes when comparing a scenario period in the near future (2021-2050) with a base period (1976-2005). Land use effects are more uncertain, but trends and relative changes for the different catchments of the NRB seem robust. The dry areas of the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of the basin show a particularly high sensitivity to climatic and land use changes, with an alarming increase of flood magnitudes in parts. A scenario with continuing transformation of natural vegetation into agricultural land and urbanization intensifies the flood risk in all parts of the NRB, while a "regreening" scenario can reduce flood magnitudes to some extent. Yet, land use change effects were smaller when compared to the effects of climate change. In the face of an already existing adaptation deficit to catastrophic flooding in the region, the authors argue for a mix of adaptation and mitigation efforts in order to reduce the flood risk in the NRB.

  3. Land use land cover change detection using remote sensing application for land sustainability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balakeristanan, Maha Letchumy; Md Said, Md Azlin

    2012-09-01

    Land falls into the category of prime resources. Land use and land cover changes are identified as the prime issue in global environmental changes. Thus, it is necessary to initiate the land change detection process for land sustainability as well as to develop a competent land use planning. Tropical country like Malaysia has been experiencing land use and land cover changes rapidly for the past few decades. Thus, an attempt was made to detect the land use and land cover changes in the capital of the Selangor, Malaysia, Shah Alam over 20 years period (1990 - 2010). The study has been done through remote sensing approach using Earth Sat imagery of December 1990 and SPOT satellite imageries of March 2000 and December 2010. The current study resulted that the study area experienced land cover changes rapidly where the forest area occupied about 24.4% of Shah Alam in 1990 has decreased to 13.6% in 2010. Built up land have increased to 29.18% in 2010 from 12.47% in 1990. Other land cover classes such as wet land, wasteland and agricultural land also have undergone changes. Efficient land management and planning is necessary for land sustainability in Shah Alam.

  4. Sustainable Water and Agricultural Land Use in the Guanting Watershed under Limited Water Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wechsung, F.; Möhring, J.; Otto, I. M.; Wang, X.; Guanting Project Team

    2012-04-01

    The Yongding River System is an important water source for the northeastern Chinese provinces Shanxi, Hebei, Beijing, and Tianjin. The Guanting Reservoir within this river system is one of the major water sources for Beijing, which is about 70 km away. Original planning assumed a discharge of 44 m3/s for the reservoir, but the current mean discharge rate is only about 5 m3/s; there is often hardly any discharge at all. Water scarcity is a major threat for the socio-economic development of the area. The situation is additionally aggravated by climate change impacts. Typical upstream-downstream conflicts with respect to water quantity and quality requests are mixed up with conflicts between different sectors, mainly mining, industry, and agriculture. These conflicts can be observed on different administrative levels, for example between the provinces, down to households. The German-Chinese research project "Sustainable water and agricultural land use in the Guanting Watershed under limited water resources" investigates problems and solutions related to water scarcity in the Guanting Catchment. The aim of the project is to create a vulnerability study in order to assess options for (and finally achieve) sustainable water and land use management in the Guanting region. This includes a comprehensive characterization of the current state by gap analysis and identification of pressures and impacts. The presentation gives an overview of recent project results regarding regionalization of global change scenarios and specification for water supply, evaluation of surface water quantity balances (supply-demand), evaluation of the surface water quality balances (emissions-impact thresholds), and exploration of integrative measurement planning. The first results show that climate in the area is becoming warmer and drier which leads to even more dramatically shrinking water resources. Water supply is expected to be reduced between one and two thirds. Water demand might be

  5. History Matters: Relating Land-Use Change to Butterfly Species Occurrence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lütolf, Michael; Guisan, Antoine; Kienast, Felix

    2009-03-01

    Western European landscapes have drastically changed since the 1950s, with agricultural intensifications and the spread of urban settlements considered the most important drivers of this land-use/land-cover change. Losses of habitat for fauna and flora have been a direct consequence of this development. In the present study, we relate butterfly occurrence to land-use/land-cover changes over five decades between 1951 and 2000. The study area covers the entire Swiss territory. The 10 explanatory variables originate from agricultural statistics and censuses. Both state as well as rate was used as explanatory variables. Species distribution data were obtained from natural history collections. We selected eight butterfly species: four species occur on wetlands and four occur on dry grasslands. We used cluster analysis to track land-use/land-cover changes and to group communes based on similar trajectories of change. Generalized linear models were applied to identify factors that were significantly correlated with the persistence or disappearance of butterfly species. Results showed that decreasing agricultural areas and densities of farms with more than 10 ha of cultivated land are significantly related with wetland species decline, and increasing densities of livestock seem to have favored disappearance of dry grassland species. Moreover, we show that species declines are not only dependent on land-use/land-cover states but also on the rates of change; that is, the higher the transformation rate from small to large farms, the higher the loss of dry grassland species. We suggest that more attention should be paid to the rates of landscape change as feasible drivers of species change and derive some management suggestions.

  6. Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marlier, M. E.; DeFries, R. S.; Pennington, D.; Ordway, E.; Nelson, E.; Mickley, L.; Koplitz, S.

    2013-12-01

    Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change in past decades as forests and peatlands are cleared for agricultural development, including oil palm and timber plantations1. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and the subsequent emissions can have important public health impacts by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations2. This regional haze was dramatically seen in Singapore during June 2013 due to the transport of emissions from fires in Sumatra. Our study is part of a larger project that will quantify the public health impact of various land use development scenarios for Sumatra over the coming decades. Here, we describe how we translate economic projections of land use change into future fire emissions inventories for GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport simulations. We relate past GFED3 fire emissions3 to detailed 1-km land use change data and MODIS fire radiative power observations, and apply these relationships to future estimates of land use change. The goal of this interdisciplinary project is to use modeling results to interact with policy makers and influence development strategies in ways that protect public health. 1Miettinen et al. 2011. Deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010. Glob. Change Biol.,17 (7), 2261-2270. 2Marlier et al. 2013. El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia. Nature Clim. Change, 3, 131-136. 3van der Werf et al. 2010. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009). Atmos. Chem. Physics, 10 (23), 11707-11735.

  7. Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Land-Use Changes, and Regional Carbon Dynamics in United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mu, J. E.; Sleeter, B. M.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    The fact that climate change is likely to accelerate throughout this century means that climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture will need to adapt increasingly to climate change. This fact also means that understanding the potential for agricultural adaptation, and how it could come about, is important for ongoing technology investments in the public and private sectors, for infrastructure investments, and for the various policies that address agriculture directly or indirectly. This paper is an interdisciplinary study by collaborating with climate scientist, agronomists, economists, and ecologists. We first use statistical models to estimate impacts of climate change on major crop yields (wheat, corn, soybeans, sorghum, and cotton) and predict changes in crop yields under future climate condition using downscaled climate projections from CMIP5. Then, we feed the predicted yield changes to a partial equilibrium economic model (FASOM-GHG) to evaluate economic and environmental outcomes including changes in land uses (i.e., cropland, pastureland, forest land, urban land and land for conservation) in United States. Finally, we use outputs from FASOM-GHG as inputs for the ST-SIM ecological model to simulate future carbon dynamics through changes in land use under future climate conditions and discuss the rate of adaptation through land-use changes. Findings in this paper have several merits compared to previous findings in the literature. First, we add economic components to the carbon calculation. It is important to include socio-economic conditions when calculating carbon emission and/or carbon sequestration because human activities are the major contribution to atmosphere GHG emissions. Second, we use the most recent downscaled climate projections from CMIP5 to capture uncertainties from climate model projections. Instead of using all GCMs, we select five GCMs to represent the ensemble. Third, we use a bottom-up approach because we start from micro-level data

  8. A conceptual framework of agricultural land use planning with BMP for integrated watershed management.

    PubMed

    Qi, Honghai; Altinakar, Mustafa S

    2011-01-01

    Land use planning is an important element of the integrated watershed management approach. It not only influences the environmental processes such as soil and stream bed erosion, sediment and nutrient concentrations in streams, quality of surface and ground waters in a watershed, but also affects social and economic development in that region. Although its importance in achieving sustainable development has long been recognized, a land use planning methodology based on a systems approach involving realistic computational modeling and meta-heuristic optimization is still lacking in the current practice of integrated watershed management. The present study proposes a new approach which attempts to combine computational modeling of upland watershed processes, fluvial processes and modern heuristic optimization techniques to address the water-land use interrelationship in its full complexity. The best land use allocation is decided by a multi-objective function that minimizes sediment yields and nutrient concentrations as well as the total operation/implementation cost, while the water quality and the production benefits from agricultural exploitation are maximized. The proposed optimization strategy considers also the preferences of land owners. The runoff model AnnAGNPS (developed by USDA), and the channel network model CCHE1D (developed by NCCHE), are linked together to simulate sediment/pollutant transport process at watershed scale based on any assigned land use combination. The greedy randomized adaptive Tabu search heuristic is used to flip the land use options for finding an optimum combination of land use allocations. The approach is demonstrated by applying it to a demonstrative case study involving USDA Goodwin Creek experimental watershed located in northern Mississippi. The results show the improvement of the tradeoff between benefits and costs for the watershed, after implementing the proposed optimal land use planning.

  9. Radar monitoring of agricultural land use - Some problems and potentials at the local level.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Henderson, F. M.

    1971-01-01

    A study was made of some of the changing land use practices in a small area of the American Winter Wheat Belt as they might relate to remote sensing. In addition, interviews were conducted with farmers and local country agents in order to determine some of the needs regarding land use and farming practices as perceived by these people. A list of elements of land use is given which provides potential variables and parameters to be considered in interpreting radar imagery. The results of interviews provide a better concept of what potential remote sensing users at the primary level need and want.

  10. Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rashford, Benjamin S.; Adams, Richard M.; Wu, JunJie; Voldseth, Richard A.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Werner, Brett; Johnson, W. Carter

    2016-01-01

    Wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is closely linked to climate. A warmer and drier climate, as predicted, will negatively affect the productivity of PPR wetlands and the services they provide. The effect of climate change on wetland productivity, however, will not only depend on natural processes (e.g., evapotranspiration), but also on human responses. Agricultural land use, the predominant use in the PPR, is unlikely to remain static as climate change affects crop yields and prices. Land use in uplands surrounding wetlands will further affect wetland water budgets and hence wetland productivity. The net impact of climate change on wetland productivity will therefore depend on both the direct effects of climate change on wetlands and the indirect effects on upland land use. We examine the effect of climate change and land-use response on semipermanent wetland productivity by combining an economic model of agricultural land-use change with an ecological model of wetland dynamics. Our results suggest that the climate change scenarios evaluated are likely to have profound effects on land use in the North and South Dakota PPR, with wheat displacing other crops and pasture. The combined pressure of land-use and climate change significantly reduces wetland productivity. In a climate scenario with a +4 °C increase in temperature, our model predicts that almost the entire region may lack the wetland productivity necessary to support wetland-dependent species.

  11. [Influence of land use change on vegetation cover dynamics in Dapeng Peninsula of Shenzhen, Guangdong Province of South China].

    PubMed

    Liang, Yao-Qin; Zeng, Hui; Li, Jing

    2012-01-01

    To study the vegetation cover dynamics under urbanization is of significance to direct regional ecological conservation. Based on the 1995-2007 remote sensing data and the investigation data of 1996 and 2007 land use change in Shenzhen, and by using NDVI index tracking and algebraic overlay calculation, this paper analyzed the vegetation types and their spatial differentiation, land use change pattern, and the relationships between land use change and vegetation cover dynamics in Dapeng Peninsula of Shenzhen. In 1995-2007, the vegetation cover in 65% of the study area changed significantly, with an overall increasing trend. Land use change was mainly caused by the development of urbanization and commercial agriculture, with 31% of the land surface changed in land use function. The land use change was one of the main causes of vegetation cover dynamics, and about 35% of the region where vegetation cover significantly degraded was related to land use change. 55% of the region where land use function changed due to mechanical disturbance caused the degradation of vegetation cover, but by the end of the study period, the vegetation cover in most of the degraded region had being improved significantly.

  12. Wetlands: crop freezes and land-use change in Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marshall, C.H.; Pielke, R.A.; Steyaert, L.T.

    2003-01-01

    South Florida experienced a significant change in land usage during the twentieth century, including the conversion of natural wetlands into agricultural land for the cultivation of winter vegetable, sugar cane and citrus crops. This movement of agriculture from more northerly areas was intended partly to escape the risk of damaging winter freezes. Here we present evidence from a case study using a coupled atmosphere and land-surface computer-modelling system that suggests that the draining of wetlands may have inadvertently increased the frequency and severity of agriculturally damaging freezes in the south of Florida.  

  13. Carbon fluxes resulting from land-use changes in the Tamaulipan thornscrub of northeastern Mexico

    PubMed Central

    Návar-Chaidez, Jose de Jesus

    2008-01-01

    Information on carbon stock and flux resulting from land-use changes in subtropical, semi-arid ecosystems are important to understand global carbon flux, yet little data is available. In the Tamaulipan thornscrub forests of northeastern Mexico, biomass components of standing vegetation were estimated from 56 quadrats (200 m2 each). Regional land-use changes and present forest cover, as well as estimates of soil organic carbon from chronosequences, were used to predict carbon stocks and fluxes in this ecosystem. For the period of 1980–1996, the Tamaulipan thornscrub is presenting an annual deforestation rate of 2.27% indicating that approximately 600 km2 of this plant community are lost every year and that 60% of the original Mexican Tamaulipan thornscrub vegetation has been lost since the 1950's. On the other hand, intensive agriculture, including introduced grasslands increased (4,000 km2) from 32 to 42% of the total studied area, largely at the expense of the Tamaulipan thornscrub forests. Land-use changes from Tamaulipan thornscrub forest to agriculture contribute 2.2 Tg to current annual carbon emissions and standing biomass averages 0.24 ± 0.06 Tg, root biomass averages 0.17 ± 0.03 Tg, and soil organic carbon averages 1.80 ± 0.27 Tg. Land-use changes from 1950 to 2000 accounted for Carbon emissions of the order of 180.1 Tg. Projected land-use changes will likely contribute to an additional carbon flux of 98.0 Tg by the year 2100. Practices to conserve sequester, and transfer carbon stocks in semi-arid ecosystems are discussed as a means to reduce carbon flux from deforestation practices. PMID:18826617

  14. National land-cover data and national agricultural census estimates of agricultural land use in the northeastern United States

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The landscape of the northeastern United States is diverse and patchy, a complex mixture of forest, agriculture, and developed lands. Many urgent social and environmental issues require spatially-referenced information on land use, a need filled by the National Land-Cover Data (NLCD). The accuracy o...

  15. NASA Land Cover and Land Use Change (LCLUC): an interdisciplinary research program.

    PubMed

    Justice, Chris; Gutman, Garik; Vadrevu, Krishna Prasad

    2015-01-15

    Understanding Land Cover/Land Use Change (LCLUC) in diverse regions of the world and at varied spatial scales is one of the important challenges in global change research. In this article, we provide a brief overview of the NASA LCLUC program, its focus areas, and the importance of satellite remote sensing observations in LCLUC research including future directions. The LCLUC Program was designed to be a cross-cutting theme within NASA's Earth Science program. The program aims to develop and use remote sensing technologies to improve understanding of human interactions with the environment. Since 1997, the NASA LCLUC program has supported nearly 280 research projects on diverse topics such as forest loss and carbon, urban expansion, land abandonment, wetland loss, agricultural land use change and land use change in mountain systems. The NASA LCLUC program emphasizes studies where land-use changes are rapid or where there are significant regional or global LCLUC implications. Over a period of years, the LCLUC program has contributed to large regional science programs such as Land Biosphere-Atmosphere (LBA), the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), and the Monsoon Area Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS). The primary emphasis of the program will remain on using remote sensing datasets for LCLUC research. The program will continue to emphasize integration of physical and social sciences to address regional to global scale issues of LCLUC for the benefit of society.

  16. NASA Land Cover and Land Use Change (LCLUC): an interdisciplinary research program.

    PubMed

    Justice, Chris; Gutman, Garik; Vadrevu, Krishna Prasad

    2015-01-15

    Understanding Land Cover/Land Use Change (LCLUC) in diverse regions of the world and at varied spatial scales is one of the important challenges in global change research. In this article, we provide a brief overview of the NASA LCLUC program, its focus areas, and the importance of satellite remote sensing observations in LCLUC research including future directions. The LCLUC Program was designed to be a cross-cutting theme within NASA's Earth Science program. The program aims to develop and use remote sensing technologies to improve understanding of human interactions with the environment. Since 1997, the NASA LCLUC program has supported nearly 280 research projects on diverse topics such as forest loss and carbon, urban expansion, land abandonment, wetland loss, agricultural land use change and land use change in mountain systems. The NASA LCLUC program emphasizes studies where land-use changes are rapid or where there are significant regional or global LCLUC implications. Over a period of years, the LCLUC program has contributed to large regional science programs such as Land Biosphere-Atmosphere (LBA), the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), and the Monsoon Area Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS). The primary emphasis of the program will remain on using remote sensing datasets for LCLUC research. The program will continue to emphasize integration of physical and social sciences to address regional to global scale issues of LCLUC for the benefit of society. PMID:25500156

  17. Global change pressures on soils from land use and management.

    PubMed

    Smith, Pete; House, Joanna I; Bustamante, Mercedes; Sobocká, Jaroslava; Harper, Richard; Pan, Genxing; West, Paul C; Clark, Joanna M; Adhya, Tapan; Rumpel, Cornelia; Paustian, Keith; Kuikman, Peter; Cotrufo, M Francesca; Elliott, Jane A; McDowell, Richard; Griffiths, Robert I; Asakawa, Susumu; Bondeau, Alberte; Jain, Atul K; Meersmans, Jeroen; Pugh, Thomas A M

    2016-03-01

    Soils are subject to varying degrees of direct or indirect human disturbance, constituting a major global change driver. Factoring out natural from direct and indirect human influence is not always straightforward, but some human activities have clear impacts. These include land-use change, land management and land degradation (erosion, compaction, sealing and salinization). The intensity of land use also exerts a great impact on soils, and soils are also subject to indirect impacts arising from human activity, such as acid deposition (sulphur and nitrogen) and heavy metal pollution. In this critical review, we report the state-of-the-art understanding of these global change pressures on soils, identify knowledge gaps and research challenges and highlight actions and policies to minimize adverse environmental impacts arising from these global change drivers. Soils are central to considerations of what constitutes sustainable intensification. Therefore, ensuring that vulnerable and high environmental value soils are considered when protecting important habitats and ecosystems, will help to reduce the pressure on land from global change drivers. To ensure that soils are protected as part of wider environmental efforts, a global soil resilience programme should be considered, to monitor, recover or sustain soil fertility and function, and to enhance the ecosystem services provided by soils. Soils cannot, and should not, be considered in isolation of the ecosystems that they underpin and vice versa. The role of soils in supporting ecosystems and natural capital needs greater recognition. The lasting legacy of the International Year of Soils in 2015 should be to put soils at the centre of policy supporting environmental protection and sustainable development.

  18. Global change pressures on soils from land use and management.

    PubMed

    Smith, Pete; House, Joanna I; Bustamante, Mercedes; Sobocká, Jaroslava; Harper, Richard; Pan, Genxing; West, Paul C; Clark, Joanna M; Adhya, Tapan; Rumpel, Cornelia; Paustian, Keith; Kuikman, Peter; Cotrufo, M Francesca; Elliott, Jane A; McDowell, Richard; Griffiths, Robert I; Asakawa, Susumu; Bondeau, Alberte; Jain, Atul K; Meersmans, Jeroen; Pugh, Thomas A M

    2016-03-01

    Soils are subject to varying degrees of direct or indirect human disturbance, constituting a major global change driver. Factoring out natural from direct and indirect human influence is not always straightforward, but some human activities have clear impacts. These include land-use change, land management and land degradation (erosion, compaction, sealing and salinization). The intensity of land use also exerts a great impact on soils, and soils are also subject to indirect impacts arising from human activity, such as acid deposition (sulphur and nitrogen) and heavy metal pollution. In this critical review, we report the state-of-the-art understanding of these global change pressures on soils, identify knowledge gaps and research challenges and highlight actions and policies to minimize adverse environmental impacts arising from these global change drivers. Soils are central to considerations of what constitutes sustainable intensification. Therefore, ensuring that vulnerable and high environmental value soils are considered when protecting important habitats and ecosystems, will help to reduce the pressure on land from global change drivers. To ensure that soils are protected as part of wider environmental efforts, a global soil resilience programme should be considered, to monitor, recover or sustain soil fertility and function, and to enhance the ecosystem services provided by soils. Soils cannot, and should not, be considered in isolation of the ecosystems that they underpin and vice versa. The role of soils in supporting ecosystems and natural capital needs greater recognition. The lasting legacy of the International Year of Soils in 2015 should be to put soils at the centre of policy supporting environmental protection and sustainable development. PMID:26301476

  19. Agricultural policy effects on land cover and land use over 30 years in Tartous, Syria, as seen in Landsat imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ibrahim, Waad Youssef; Batzli, Sam; Menzel, W. Paul

    2014-01-01

    This study pursues a connection between agricultural policy and the changes in land use and land cover detected with remote sensing satellite data. One part of the study analyzes the Syrian agricultural policy, wherein, certain regional targets have been selected for annual citrus or greenhouse development along with tools of enforcement, support, and monitoring. The second part of the study investigates the utility of remote sensing (RS) and geographical information systems (GIS) to map land use land cover changes (LULC-Cs) in a time series of images from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) from 1987, 1998, 2006, and 2010 and Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+) from 1999 to 2002. Several multispectral band analyses have been performed to determine the most suitable band combinations for isolating greenhouses and citrus farms. Supervised classification with maximum likelihood classifier has been used to produce precise land use land cover map. This research demonstrates that spatial relationship between LULC-Cs and agricultural policies can be determined through a science-based GIS/RS application to a time series of satellite images taken at the same time of the implemented policy.

  20. Effects of Land Use Change on Tropical Hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Creel, J.; Ogden, F. L.

    2012-12-01

    The effects of land use change in the tropics is an area that is poorly understood. It is often hypothesized that deforestation leads to larger flood peaks, although questions remain regarding the generality of this concept and controlling factors. We test this hypothesis using rainfall-runoff data from five different basins in the Panama Canal Watershed collected during the flood of record, which occurred in December, 2010. During this "La Purissima" event, over 1000 mm of rain fell in two days of portions of the study area. One of the basins used in our comparison is the 414 sq. km Upper Rio Chagres, which consists of 98% old-growth forest land cover. The response of this watershed is compared against adjacent watersheds with varying degrees of deforestation. Runoff ratios and flashiness indices are calculated for each of the five basins. Additionally, flood peaks during the storm are compared. Correlations between these indicators of flood runoff and contemporaneous land use data are used to explore the effect of the level of deforestation on flood severity for this unusually extreme well monitored tropical rainfall event.

  1. Deriving a per-field land use and land cover map in an agricultural mosaic catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seo, B.; Bogner, C.; Poppenborg, P.; Martin, E.; Hoffmeister, M.; Jun, M.; Koellner, T.; Reineking, B.; Shope, C. L.; Tenhunen, J.

    2014-09-01

    Detailed data on land use and land cover constitute important information for Earth system models, environmental monitoring and ecosystem services research. Global land cover products are evolving rapidly; however, there is still a lack of information particularly for heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. We censused land use and land cover field by field in the agricultural mosaic catchment Haean in South Korea. We recorded the land cover types with additional information on agricultural practice. In this paper we introduce the data, their collection and the post-processing protocol. Furthermore, because it is important to quantitatively evaluate available land use and land cover products, we compared our data with the MODIS Land Cover Type product (MCD12Q1). During the studied period, a large portion of dry fields was converted to perennial crops. Compared to our data, the forested area was underrepresented and the agricultural area overrepresented in MCD12Q1. In addition, linear landscape elements such as waterbodies were missing in the MODIS product due to its coarse spatial resolution. The data presented here can be useful for earth science and ecosystem services research. The data are available at the public repository Pangaea (doi:110.1594/PANGAEA.823677).

  2. Investigation into impacts of land-use changes on floods in the upper Huaihe River basin, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, M.; Li, Q.; Lu, G.; Wang, H.; Li, P.

    2015-06-01

    To investigate the agricultural land-use change on flood regime, the upper Huaihe River basin above the Dapoling station was selected as the case study site. Based on topography, land-use, hydrological and meteorological data in 1990s and 2010s, the improved distributed Xinanjiang model, with potential evapotranspiration being computed by coupling a dual-source evapotranspiration model with a simplified plant growth model, was adopted to simulate the daily and hourly rainfall-runoff processes over 1990s and 2010s, and then the effects of land-use change on flood volume, flood peak, occurring time of flood peak, the percentage of surface runoff component were investigated respectively. The results was interesting and indicated that impacts of land-use change on flood characteristics varied significantly with land-use types. The outputs could provide valuable references for flood risk management and water resources management in the Huaihe River basin.

  3. Agricultural land use intensity and its determinants: A case study in Taibus Banner, Inner Mongolia, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, Haiguang; Li, Xiubin; Tan, Minghong; Zhang, Jiping; Zhang, Huiyuan

    2015-06-01

    Based on rural household survey data from Taibus Banner, in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, this study separately categorizes agricultural land use intensity into labor intensity, capital intensity, the intensity of labor-saving inputs, and the intensity of yield-increasing inputs, and then analyzes their determinants at the household level. The findings reveal that within the study area: (1) labor intensity is higher and capital intensity is lower than in the major grain-producing and economically developed areas of eastern and central China; (2) the most widely planted crops are those with the lowest labor intensity (oats) and capital intensity (benne); (3) there are marked differences in agricultural land use intensity among households; a major factor affecting land use decision-making is the reduced need for labor intensity for those households with high opportunity costs, such as those with income earned from non-farming activities which alleviates financial constraints and allows for increased capital intensity. As a result, these households invest more in labor-saving inputs; (4) households with a larger number of workers will allocate adequate time to manage their land and thus they will not necessarily invest more in labor-saving inputs. Those households with more land to manage tend to adopt an extensive cultivation strategy. Total income has a positive impact on capital intensity and a negative impact on labor intensity. Households that derive a higher proportion of their total income through farming are more reliant upon agriculture, which necessitates significant labor and yield-increasing inputs. Finally, the authors contend that policy makers should clearly recognize the impacts of non-farming employment on agricultural land use intensity. In order to ensure long-term food security and sustainable agricultural development in China, income streams from both farming and non-farming employment should be balanced.

  4. Denitrification potential of different land-use types in an agricultural watershed, lower Mississippi valley

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ullah, S.; Faulkner, S.P.

    2006-01-01

    Expansion of agricultural land and excessive nitrogen (N) fertilizer use in the Mississippi River watershed has resulted in a three-fold increase in the nitrate load of the river since the early 1950s. One way to reduce this nitrate load is to restore wetlands at suitable locations between croplands and receiving waters to remove run-off nitrate through denitrification. This research investigated denitrification potential (DP) of different land uses and its controlling factors in an agricultural watershed in the lower Mississippi valley (LMV) to help identify sites with high DP for reducing run-off nitrate. Soil samples collected from seven land-use types of an agricultural watershed during spring, summer, fall and winter were incubated in the laboratory for DP determination. Low-elevation clay soils in wetlands exhibited 6.3 and 2.5 times greater DP compared to high-elevation silt loam and low-elevation clay soils in croplands, respectively. DP of vegetated-ditches was 1.3 and 4.2 times that of un-vegetated ditches and cultivated soils, respectively. Soil carbon and nitrogen availability, bulk density, and soil moisture significantly affected DP. These factors were significantly influenced in turn by landscape position and land-use type of the watershed. It is evident from these results that low-elevation, fine-textured soils under natural wetlands are the best locations for mediating nitrate loss from agricultural watersheds in the LMV. Landscape position and land-use types can be used as indices for the assessment/modeling of denitrification potential and identification of sites for restoration for nitrate removal in agricultural watersheds. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Land use and land cover changes in Zêzere watershed (Portugal)--Water quality implications.

    PubMed

    Meneses, B M; Reis, R; Vale, M J; Saraiva, R

    2015-09-15

    To understand the relations between land use allocation and water quality preservation within a watershed is essential to assure sustainable development. The land use and land cover (LUC) within Zêzere River watershed registered relevant changes in the last decades. These land use and land cover changes (LUCCs) have impacts in water quality, mainly in surface water degradation caused by surface runoff from artificial and agricultural areas, forest fires and burnt areas, and caused by sewage discharges from agroindustry and urban sprawl. In this context, the impact of LUCCs in the quality of surface water of the Zêzere watershed is evaluated, considering the changes for different types of LUC and establishing their possible correlations to the most relevant water quality changes. The results indicate that the loss of coniferous forest and the increase of transitional woodland-shrub are related to increased water's pH; while the growth in artificial surfaces and pastures leads mainly to the increase of soluble salts and fecal coliform concentration. These particular findings within the Zêzere watershed, show the relevance of addressing water quality impact driven from land use and should therefore be taken into account within the planning process in order to prevent water stress, namely within watersheds integrating drinking water catchments.

  6. Land use and land cover changes in Zêzere watershed (Portugal)--Water quality implications.

    PubMed

    Meneses, B M; Reis, R; Vale, M J; Saraiva, R

    2015-09-15

    To understand the relations between land use allocation and water quality preservation within a watershed is essential to assure sustainable development. The land use and land cover (LUC) within Zêzere River watershed registered relevant changes in the last decades. These land use and land cover changes (LUCCs) have impacts in water quality, mainly in surface water degradation caused by surface runoff from artificial and agricultural areas, forest fires and burnt areas, and caused by sewage discharges from agroindustry and urban sprawl. In this context, the impact of LUCCs in the quality of surface water of the Zêzere watershed is evaluated, considering the changes for different types of LUC and establishing their possible correlations to the most relevant water quality changes. The results indicate that the loss of coniferous forest and the increase of transitional woodland-shrub are related to increased water's pH; while the growth in artificial surfaces and pastures leads mainly to the increase of soluble salts and fecal coliform concentration. These particular findings within the Zêzere watershed, show the relevance of addressing water quality impact driven from land use and should therefore be taken into account within the planning process in order to prevent water stress, namely within watersheds integrating drinking water catchments. PMID:25981942

  7. Landscape ecological security response to land use change in the tidal flat reclamation zone, China.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Runsen; Pu, Lijie; Li, Jianguo; Zhang, Jing; Xu, Yan

    2016-01-01

    As coastal development becomes a national strategy in Eastern China, land use and landscape patterns have been affected by reclamation projects. In this study, taking Rudong County, China as a typical area, we analyzed land use change and its landscape ecological security responses in the tidal flat reclamation zone. The results show that land use change in the tidal flat reclamation zone is characterized by the replacement of natural tidal flat with agricultural and construction land, which has also led to a big change in landscape patterns. We built a landscape ecological security evaluation system, which consists of landscape interference degree and landscape fragile degree, and then calculated the landscape ecological security change in the tidal flat reclamation zone from 1990 to 2008 to depict the life cycle in tidal flat reclamation. Landscape ecological security exhibited a W-shaped periodicity, including the juvenile stage, growth stage, and maturation stage. Life-cycle analysis demonstrates that 37 years is required for the land use system to transform from a natural ecosystem to an artificial ecosystem in the tidal flat reclamation zone. PMID:26627206

  8. Landscape ecological security response to land use change in the tidal flat reclamation zone, China.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Runsen; Pu, Lijie; Li, Jianguo; Zhang, Jing; Xu, Yan

    2016-01-01

    As coastal development becomes a national strategy in Eastern China, land use and landscape patterns have been affected by reclamation projects. In this study, taking Rudong County, China as a typical area, we analyzed land use change and its landscape ecological security responses in the tidal flat reclamation zone. The results show that land use change in the tidal flat reclamation zone is characterized by the replacement of natural tidal flat with agricultural and construction land, which has also led to a big change in landscape patterns. We built a landscape ecological security evaluation system, which consists of landscape interference degree and landscape fragile degree, and then calculated the landscape ecological security change in the tidal flat reclamation zone from 1990 to 2008 to depict the life cycle in tidal flat reclamation. Landscape ecological security exhibited a W-shaped periodicity, including the juvenile stage, growth stage, and maturation stage. Life-cycle analysis demonstrates that 37 years is required for the land use system to transform from a natural ecosystem to an artificial ecosystem in the tidal flat reclamation zone.

  9. Land use change effects on forest carbon cycling throughout the southern United States.

    PubMed

    Woodbury, Peter B; Heath, Linda S; Smith, James E

    2006-01-01

    We modeled the effects of afforestation and deforestation on carbon cycling in forest floor and soil from 1900 to 2050 throughout 13 states in the southern United States. The model uses historical data on gross (two-way) transitions between forest, pasture, plowed agriculture, and urban lands along with equations describing changes in carbon over many decades for each type of land use change. Use of gross rather than net land use transition data is important because afforestation causes a gradual gain in carbon stocks for many decades, while deforestation causes a much more rapid loss in carbon stocks. In the South-Central region (Texas to Kentucky) land use changes caused a net emission of carbon before the 1980s, followed by a net sequestration of carbon subsequently. In the Southeast region (Florida to Virginia), there was net emission of carbon until the 1940s, again followed by net sequestration of carbon. These results could improve greenhouse gas inventories produced to meet reporting requirements under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Specifically, from 1990 to 2004 for the entire 13-state study area, afforestation caused sequestration of 88 Tg C, and deforestation caused emission of 49 Tg C. However, the net effect of land use change on carbon stocks in soil and forest floor from 1990 to 2004 was about sixfold smaller than the net change in carbon stocks in trees on all forestland. Thus land use change effects and forest carbon cycling during this period are dominated by changes in tree carbon stocks.

  10. Biofuel Induced Land Use Change effects on Watershed Hydrology and Water Quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaubey, I.; Cibin, R.; Frankenberger, J.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Volenec, J. J.; Brouder, S. M.

    2015-12-01

    High yielding perennial grasses such as Miscanthus and switchgrass, and crop residues such as corn stover are expected to play a significant role in meeting US biofuel production targets. We have evaluated the potential impacts of biofuel induced land use changes on hydrology, water quality, and ecosystem services. The bioenergy production scenarios, included: production of Miscanthus × giganteus and switchgrass on highly erodible landscape positions, agricultural marginal land areas, and pastures; removal of corn stover at various rates; and combinations of these scenarios. The hydrology and water quality impacts of land use change scenarios were estimated for two watersheds in Midwest USA (1) Wildcat Creek watershed (drainage area of 2,083 km2) located in north-central Indiana and (2) St. Joseph River watershed (drainage area of 2,809 km2) located in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan. We have also simulated the impacts of climate change and variability on environmental sustainability and have compared climate change impacts with land use change impacts. The study results indicated improved water quality with perennial grass scenarios compared to current row crop production impacts. Erosion reduction with perennial energy crop production scenarios ranged between 0.2% and 59%. Stream flow at the watershed outlet were reduced between 0.2 and 8% among various bioenergy crop production scenarios. Stover removal scenarios indicated increased erosion compared to baseline condition due reduced soil cover after stover harvest. Stream flow and nitrate loading were reduced with stover removal due to increased soil evaporation and reduced mineralization. A comparison of land use and climate change impacts indicates that land use changes will have considerably larger impacts on hydrology, water quality and environmental sustainability compared to climate change and variability. Our results indicate that production of biofuel crops can be optimized at the landscape level to provide

  11. Agricultural chemicals in groundwater of the midwestern United States: Relations to land use

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kolpin, D.W.

    1997-01-01

    To determine the relations between land use and concentrations of selected agricultural chemicals (nitrate, atrazine residue [atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino-s-triazine) + deethylatrazinc (2-amino-4-chloro-6-isopropylamino-s-triazine) + deisopropylatrazine (2-amino-4-chloro-6-ethylamino-s-triazine)], and alachlor residue [alachlor, [2-chloro-2′,6′-diethyl-N-(methoxymethyl) acetanilide] + alachlor ethanesulfonic acid (alachlor-ESA; 2-[(2,6-diethylphenyl)(methoxymethyl)amino]-2-oxoethanesulfonic acid)] in groundwater, detailed land use information based on accurate measurements from aerial photographs for the 1991 growing season was obtained within a 2-km radius surrounding 100 wells completed in near-surface unconsolidated aquifers in the midwestern USA. The most significant land use factors to the agricultural chemicals examined were: nitrate (amount of irrigated crop production, positive relation), atrazine residue (amount of irrigated crop production, positive relation), and alachlor residue (amount of highly erodible land, inverse relation). The investigation of smaller buffer sizes (size of circular area around sampled wells) proved insightful for this study. Additional land use factors having significant relations to all three agricultural chemicals were identified using these smaller buffer radii. The most significant correlations (correlation maxima) generally occurred at ≤500-m for nitrate and ≥1000-m for atrazine residue and alachlor residue. An attempt to improve the statistical relations to land use by taking hydrologic considerations into account (removing land outside the estimated most probable recharge area from the statistical analysis) was not as successful as anticipated. Only 45% of the nitrate, 32% of the atrazine residue, and 20% of the alachlor residue correlations were improved by a consideration of the estimated most probable recharge area.

  12. Land use policy and agricultural water management of the previous half of century in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valipour, Mohammad

    2015-12-01

    This paper examines land use policy and agricultural water management in Africa from 1962 to 2011. For this purpose, data were gathered from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Bank Group. Using the FAO database, ten indices were selected: permanent crops to cultivated area (%), rural population to total population (%), total economically active population in agriculture to total economically active population (%), human development index, national rainfall index (mm/year), value added to gross domestic product by agriculture (%), irrigation water requirement (mm/year), percentage of total cultivated area drained (%), difference between national rainfall index and irrigation water requirement (mm/year), area equipped for irrigation to cultivated area or land use policy index (%). These indices were analyzed for all 53 countries in the study area and the land use policy index was estimated by two different formulas. The results show that value of relative error is <20 %. In addition, an average index was calculated using various methods to assess countries' conditions for agricultural water management. Ability of irrigation and drainage systems was studied using other eight indices with more limited information. These indices are surface irrigation (%), sprinkler irrigation (%), localized irrigation (%), spate irrigation (%), agricultural water withdrawal (10 km3/year), conservation agriculture area as percentage of cultivated area (%), percentage of area equipped for irrigation salinized (%), and area waterlogged by irrigation (%). Finally, tendency of farmers to use irrigation systems for cultivated crops has been presented. The results show that Africa needs governments' policy to encourage farmers to use irrigation systems and raise cropping intensity for irrigated area.

  13. Impacts of agricultural land use on biological integrity: A causal analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Riseng, C.M.; Wiley, M.J.; Black, R.W.; Munn, M.D.

    2011-01-01

    Agricultural land use has often been linked to nutrient enrichment, habitat degradation, hydrologic alteration, and loss of biotic integrity in streams. The U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program sampled 226 stream sites located in eight agriculture-dominated study units across the United States to investigate the geographic variability and causes of agricultural impacts on stream biotic integrity. In this analysis we used structural equation modeling (SEM) to develop a national and set of regional causal models linking agricultural land use to measured instream conditions. We then examined the direct, indirect, and total effects of agriculture on biotic integrity as it acted through multiple water quality and habitat pathways. In our nation-wide model, cropland affected benthic communities by both altering structural habitats and by imposing water quality-related stresses. Regionspecific modeling demonstrated that geographic context altered the relative importance of causal pathways through which agricultural activities affected stream biotic integrity. Cropland had strong negative total effects on the invertebrate community in the national, Midwest, and Western models, but a very weak effect in the Eastern Coastal Plain model. In theWestern Arid and Eastern Coastal Plain study regions, cropland impacts were transmitted primarily through dissolved water quality contaminants, but in the Midwestern region, they were transmitted primarily through particulate components of water quality. Habitat effects were important in the Western Arid model, but negligible in the Midwest and Eastern Coastal Plain models. The relative effects of riparian forested wetlands also varied regionally, having positive effects on biotic integrity in the Eastern Coastal Plain andWestern Arid region models, but no statistically significant effect in the Midwest. These differences in response to cropland and riparian cover suggest that best management practices and

  14. The assessment of land use change impact on watersheds runoff using SWAT: case study of Urmia Lake in Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jabbari, Anahita; Jarihani, Ben; Rezaie, Hossein

    2015-04-01

    Lake Urmia, long counted among the world's largest saltwater lakes, contains only 5% of the amount of water it did just 20 years ago. The decline is generally blamed on a combination of drought, increased water diversion for irrigated agriculture within the lake's watershed and land use mismanagement. It has been believed that land use changes in Lake Urmia basin is one of the most important factors in shrinkage of Urmia Lake in recent decades. Transforming the traditional agricultural practices (i.e., wheat) to the more water consuming practices (i.e., apple orchards) is one of the most important reasons increased agricultural water consumption in the watershed. In this study we assessed the effect of the land use changes of watershed in hydrological runoff processing in the Nazloo chai watershed, one of the most important river basins of the Urmia Lake basin. Actually the rapid and at the same time unreasonable transformations of land use in farm lands of Urmia lake sub basins, extremely has been raised the amount of blue water (surface or groundwater) consumption in watershed which leads to dramatic decrement of watershed runoff amounts. One of the most unfavorable consequences of land use change was changing the blue and green (rainwater insofar as it does not become runoff) water usage patterns in watershed, in addition to water use increment. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), one of the most important and reliable models which was used to model the rainfall runoff, has been used in current study. The land use maps were extracted from Landsat images archives for the most severe turning points in respect of land use change in the recent 30 years. After calibrating the model, several land use patterns of historical data were used in the model to produce the runoff. The results showed the strong relation between land use change and runoff reduction in the Lake Urmia basin.

  15. Assessments of the contribution of land use change to the dust emission in Central Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xi, X.; Sokolik, I. N.

    2015-12-01

    While the dust emission from arid and semi-arid regions is known as a natural process induced by wind erosion, human may affect the dust emission directly through land use disturbances and indirectly by climate change. There has been much debate on the relative importance of climate change and land use to the global dust budget, as past estimates on the proportion of dust contributed by land use, in particular agricultural practices, remains very uncertain. This to the large extent stems from the way how human-made dust sources are identified and how they are treated in models. This study attempts to assess the land use contribution to the dust emission in Central Asia during 2000-2014 by conducting multiple experiments on the total emission in the WRF-Chem-DuMo model, and applying two methods to separate the natural and anthropogenic sources. The model experiments include realistic treatments of agriculture (e.g., expansion and abandonment) and water body changes (e.g., Aral Sea desiccation) in the land cover map of WRF-Chem-DuMo, but impose no arbitrary labeling of dust source type or adjustment to the erosion threshold. Intercomparison of the model experiments will be focused on the magnitude, interannual variability, and climate sensitivity of dust fluxes resulting from the selections of surface input data and dust flux parameterizations. Based on annual land use intensity maps, the sensitivity of the anthropogenic dust proportion to selection of the threshold value will be evaluated. In conjunction with the empirical method, satellite-derived annual land classifications will be used to track the land cover dynamics, and separate potential human-made source areas.

  16. [Simulation and prediction of urban and rural settlement growth and land use change in Yingkou City].

    PubMed

    Xi, Feng-Ming; He, Hong-Shi; Hu, Yuan-Man; Wu, Xiao-Qing; Bao, Li; Tian, Ying; Wang, Jin-Nian; Ma, Wen-Jun

    2008-07-01

    Based on the 1988, 1992, 1997, 2000, and 2004 Landsat TM remote sensing data of Yingkou City, Liaoning Province, the urban and rural settlement growth and land use change in the city from 2005 to 2030 were simulated and predicted by using the SLEUTH urban growth and land use change model with six scenarios (current trend scenario, no protection scenario, moderate protection scenario, managed growth scenario, ecologically sustainable growth scenario, and regional and urban comprehensive planning scenario). The results showed that in the city, the increased area of urban and rural settlement growth from 1988 to 2004 was 14.93 km2, and the areas of water area, orchard, mine, and agricultural land changed greatly from 1997 to 2004. From 2005 to 2030, based on ecologically sustainable growth scenario, the urban and rural settlement growth would have a slow increase, and agricultural land and forestland would be better protected; under no protection scenario, the urban and rural settlement growth would have a rapid increase, and large area of agricultural land would be lost; under current trend scenario, the agricultural land loss would be similar to that under no protective scenario, but the loss pattern could be different; under moderate protection scenario and managed growth scenario, the agricultural land would have a smaller loss; while under regional and urban comprehensive planning scenario, the urban and rural settlement growth would be mainly distributed in urban development area and urban fringe. The SLEUTH model with different scenarios could simulate how the different land management policies affect urban and rural settlement growth and land use change, which would be instructive to the coordination of Chinese urban and rural settlement development and the socialist new rural reconstruction.

  17. Land cover change or land-use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model.

    PubMed

    van Asselen, Sanneke; Verburg, Peter H

    2013-12-01

    Land-use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land-use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land systems that are characterized by their land cover mosaic, the agricultural management intensity, and livestock. Land system changes are simulated by the model, driven by regional demand for goods and influenced by local factors that either constrain or promote land system conversion. A characteristic of the new model is the endogenous simulation of intensification of agricultural management versus expansion of arable land, and urban versus rural settlements expansion based on land availability in the neighborhood of the location. Model results for the OECD Environmental Outlook scenario show that allocation of increased agricultural production by either management intensification or area expansion varies both among and within world regions, providing useful insight into the land sparing versus land sharing debate. The land system approach allows the inclusion of different types of demand for goods and services from the land system as a driving factor of land system change. Simulation results are compared to observed changes over the 1970-2000 period and projections of other global and regional land change models.

  18. Land-Use Change: Impacts of Climate Variations and Policies Examples From Northern Shaanxi Province, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ostwald, M.

    2003-12-01

    Phases of dynamical change are taking place in many developing countries causing land-use change. In China there has been enormous economic growth since 1978 followed by impacts on the environmental, social and economical conduct of the society. One of the counter actions taken by the Government to halt the environmental degradation in the Loess Plateau has been the introduction of the Crop Conversion Program in 1999, stopping agricultural activity in slope areas, mainly used by small-scale farmers. At the same time climate variations have also been evident in the area with decreases in rainfall and increases in temperature since 1970. The aim here is to examine what vegetation changes are seen on large scales in the area from 2000-2002, and how they correlate to local land-use changes. We then investigate how the land-use changes correlated with climate variations and/or policies and reforms. The data included in this integrated assessment includes remote sensing information from MODIS and ASTER images, climate and statistical data as well as farmer's participatory data. The results show that the large-scale vegetation has increased and that correlates well with dramatic local land-use change caused by the policy implementation. This however is not correlated with the climate variation found during this time (both lagged and simultaneous) which show a less favorable vegetation condition; all very well perceived by farmers. Hence the direct force behind the extreme land-use change is more associated with policy and economics than climate

  19. Introduction to special section on impacts of land use change on water resources

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stonestrom, D.A.; Scanlon, B.R.; Zhang, L.

    2009-01-01

    Changes in land use have potentially large impacts on water resources, yet quantifying these impacts remains among the more challenging problems in hydrology. Water, food, energy, and climate are linked through complex webs of direct and indirect effects and feedbacks. Land use is undergoing major changes due not only to pressures for more efficient food, feed, and fiber production to support growing populations but also due to policy shifts that are creating markets for biofuel and agricultural carbon sequestration. Hydrologic systems embody flows of water, solutes, sediments, and energy that vary even in the absence of human activity. Understanding land use impacts thus necessitates integrated scientific approaches. Field measurements, remote sensing, and modeling studies are shedding new light on the modes and mechanisms by which land use changes impact water resources. Such studies can help deconflate the interconnected influences of human actions and natural variations on the quantity and quality of soil water, surface water, and groundwater, past, present, and future. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  20. Thermal Band Analysis of Agricultural Land Use and its Effects on Bioclimatic Comfort: The Case of Pasinler

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avdan, Uǧur; Demircioglu Yildiz, Nalan; Dagliyar, Ayse; Yigit Avdan, Zehra; Yilmaz, Sevgi

    2014-05-01

    Resolving the problems that arise due to the land use are not suitable for the purpose in the rural and urban areas most suitable for land use of parameters to be determined. Unintended and unplanned developments in the use of agricultural land in our country caused increases the losses by soil erosion. In this study, Thermal Band analysis is made in Pasinler city center with the aim of identifying bioclimatic comfort values of the different agricultural area. Satellite images can be applied for assessing the thermal urban environment as well as for defining heat islands in agricultural areas. In this context, temperature map is tried to be produced with land surface temperature (LST) analysis made on Landsat TM5 satellite image. The Landsat 5 images was obtained from USGS for the study area. Using Landsat bands of the study area was mapped by supervised classification with the maximum likelihood classification algorithm of ERDAS imagine 2011 software. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) image was produced by using Landsat images. The digital number of the Landsat thermal infrared band (10.40 - 12.50 µm) is converted to the spectral radiance. The surface emissivity was calculated by using NDVI. The spatial pattern of land surface temperature in the study area is taken to characterize their local effects on agricultural land. Areas having bioclimatic comfort and ecologically urbanized, are interpreted with different graphical presentation technics. The obtained results are important because they create data bases for sustainable urban planning and provide a direction for planners and governors. As a result of rapid changes in land use, rural ecosystems and quality of life are deteriorated and decreased. In the presence of increased building density, for the comfortable living of people natural and cultural resources should be analyzed in detail. For that reason, optimal land use planning should be made in rural area.

  1. The effects of environmental and socioeconomic factors on land-use changes: a study of Alberta, Canada.

    PubMed

    Ruan, Xiaofeng; Qiu, Feng; Dyck, Miles

    2016-08-01

    Various environmental and socioeconomic issues have been attributed to land-use changes, and therefore, the underlying mechanisms merit investigation and quantification. This study assesses a comprehensive series of land-use conversions that were implemented over a recent 12-year period in the province of Alberta, Canada, where rapid economic and population growth has occurred. Spatial autocorrelation models are applied to identify the comprehensive effects of environmental and socioeconomic factors in each conversion case. The empirical results show that the impacts of key environmental and socioeconomic factors varied in intensity depending on the type of land-use conversion involved. Overall, land suitability for agricultural uses, road density, elevation, and population growth were found to be significant predictors of land-use changes. High land suitability, low elevation, and moderate road density were associated with land conversion for agricultural purposes.

  2. The effects of environmental and socioeconomic factors on land-use changes: a study of Alberta, Canada.

    PubMed

    Ruan, Xiaofeng; Qiu, Feng; Dyck, Miles

    2016-08-01

    Various environmental and socioeconomic issues have been attributed to land-use changes, and therefore, the underlying mechanisms merit investigation and quantification. This study assesses a comprehensive series of land-use conversions that were implemented over a recent 12-year period in the province of Alberta, Canada, where rapid economic and population growth has occurred. Spatial autocorrelation models are applied to identify the comprehensive effects of environmental and socioeconomic factors in each conversion case. The empirical results show that the impacts of key environmental and socioeconomic factors varied in intensity depending on the type of land-use conversion involved. Overall, land suitability for agricultural uses, road density, elevation, and population growth were found to be significant predictors of land-use changes. High land suitability, low elevation, and moderate road density were associated with land conversion for agricultural purposes. PMID:27376846

  3. Land-use change, economics, and rural well-being in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gascoigne, William R.; Hoag, Dana L.K.; Johnson, Rex R.; Koontz, Lynne M.; Thomas, Catherine Cullinane

    2013-01-01

    This fact sheet highlights findings included in a comprehensive new report (see USGS Professional Paper 1800) which investigated land-use change, economic characteristics, and rural community well-being in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. Once one of the largest grassland-wetlands ecosystems on earth, the North American prairie has experienced extensive conversion to cultivated agriculture, with farming becoming the dominant land use in the region over the last century. Both perennial habitat lands and agricultural croplands retain importance economically, socially, and culturally. Greatly increased oil and gas development in recent years brought rises in employment and income but also stressed infrastructure, cost of living, and crime rates. Research described in these reports focuses on land-use dynamics and illuminates how economic variables and rural development in the Prairie Pothole Region might be influenced as land uses change.

  4. Long term statistics of riverflow in the Italian Alps: climatic or land use changes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranzi, Roberto; Barontini, Stefano; Grossi, Giovanna; Tomirotti, Massimo

    2014-05-01

    Riverflow time series are far from being stationary and always experienced changes in the past, also dramatic in long time horizons. In recent years it seems that both climatic and anthropogenic factors are accelerating the variability of hydrological processes. It is not clear, however, whether climatic or anthropic factors, as land use changes and modifications of agricultural practices represent the major forcing to the hydrological cycle. Long term statistics of riverflow for four major Italian rivers in the Central Alps are presented and compared with precipitation, temperature, land use and glacierised areas data. It is shown that for some rivers the increased agricultural water demand and land use changes might be a major source of non stationarity, possibly more relevant than meteorological ones. Another natural feedback is discussed which is being observed also at the global scale: the natural afforestation occurring, at least in Europe, over the last two centuries. Increase of forested areas for the Adige riverbasin since mid XIX century and comparison with today's conditions are shown. This afforestation process can play a major role in regulating the hydrological cycle, mitigating flood and drought extremes, but also enhancing evapotranspiration losses and thus reducing runoff volumes. This can be one of the most relevant reason of the decreasing trends observed for all the four rivers since early XX century, most of them being significant on a statistical basis.

  5. Modeling the effects of climate change on different land uses.

    PubMed

    Göncü, S; Albek, E

    2007-01-01

    This study deals with the effects of the expected climate change on the hydrology of watersheds. The watershed response in terms of the water produced by the watershed has been modeled using HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN) for a time period which encompasses the first half of the twenty-first century. Climate change scenarios have been prepared based on trends expected in western Turkey and a hypothetical watershed with different land uses has been simulated. The trends have been extracted from the results of a general circulation model. The simulations have revealed that watersheds with no vegetative cover will respond to the trends in temperature and precipitation more rigorously than vegetated watersheds. Pasture or watersheds with deciduous or coniferous forests respond less to climate change due to the buffering mechanism of the vegetative cover and also due to the large quantities of water they transpire. It has also been found that monthly variations are important in predicting the future response of watersheds. While changes might seem small on a yearly scale, there are large differences in response among seasons.

  6. Land-use policies and corporate investments in agriculture in the Gran Chaco and Chiquitano.

    PubMed

    le Polain de Waroux, Yann; Garrett, Rachael D; Heilmayr, Robert; Lambin, Eric F

    2016-04-12

    Growing demand for agricultural commodities is causing the expansion of agricultural frontiers onto native vegetation worldwide. Agribusiness companies linking these frontiers to distant spaces of consumption through global commodity chains increasingly make zero-deforestation pledges. However, production and land conversion are often carried out by less-visible local and regional actors that are mobile and responsive to new agricultural expansion opportunities and legal constraints on land use. With more stringent deforestation regulations in some countries, we ask whether their movements are determined partly by differences in land-use policies, resulting in "deforestation havens." We analyze the determinants of investment decisions by agricultural companies in the Gran Chaco and Chiquitano, a region that has become the new deforestation "hot spot" in South America. We test whether companies seek out less-regulated forest areas for new agricultural investments. Based on interviews with 82 companies totaling 2.5 Mha of properties, we show that, in addition to proximity to current investments and the availability of cheap forestland, lower deforestation regulations attract investments by companies that tend to clear more forest, mostly cattle ranching operations, and that lower enforcement attracts all companies. Avoiding deforestation leakage requires harmonizing deforestation regulations across regions and commodities and promoting sustainable intensification in cattle ranching. PMID:27035995

  7. Land-use policies and corporate investments in agriculture in the Gran Chaco and Chiquitano

    PubMed Central

    le Polain de Waroux, Yann; Garrett, Rachael D.; Heilmayr, Robert; Lambin, Eric F.

    2016-01-01

    Growing demand for agricultural commodities is causing the expansion of agricultural frontiers onto native vegetation worldwide. Agribusiness companies linking these frontiers to distant spaces of consumption through global commodity chains increasingly make zero-deforestation pledges. However, production and land conversion are often carried out by less-visible local and regional actors that are mobile and responsive to new agricultural expansion opportunities and legal constraints on land use. With more stringent deforestation regulations in some countries, we ask whether their movements are determined partly by differences in land-use policies, resulting in “deforestation havens.” We analyze the determinants of investment decisions by agricultural companies in the Gran Chaco and Chiquitano, a region that has become the new deforestation “hot spot” in South America. We test whether companies seek out less-regulated forest areas for new agricultural investments. Based on interviews with 82 companies totaling 2.5 Mha of properties, we show that, in addition to proximity to current investments and the availability of cheap forestland, lower deforestation regulations attract investments by companies that tend to clear more forest, mostly cattle ranching operations, and that lower enforcement attracts all companies. Avoiding deforestation leakage requires harmonizing deforestation regulations across regions and commodities and promoting sustainable intensification in cattle ranching. PMID:27035995

  8. Land-use policies and corporate investments in agriculture in the Gran Chaco and Chiquitano.

    PubMed

    le Polain de Waroux, Yann; Garrett, Rachael D; Heilmayr, Robert; Lambin, Eric F

    2016-04-12

    Growing demand for agricultural commodities is causing the expansion of agricultural frontiers onto native vegetation worldwide. Agribusiness companies linking these frontiers to distant spaces of consumption through global commodity chains increasingly make zero-deforestation pledges. However, production and land conversion are often carried out by less-visible local and regional actors that are mobile and responsive to new agricultural expansion opportunities and legal constraints on land use. With more stringent deforestation regulations in some countries, we ask whether their movements are determined partly by differences in land-use policies, resulting in "deforestation havens." We analyze the determinants of investment decisions by agricultural companies in the Gran Chaco and Chiquitano, a region that has become the new deforestation "hot spot" in South America. We test whether companies seek out less-regulated forest areas for new agricultural investments. Based on interviews with 82 companies totaling 2.5 Mha of properties, we show that, in addition to proximity to current investments and the availability of cheap forestland, lower deforestation regulations attract investments by companies that tend to clear more forest, mostly cattle ranching operations, and that lower enforcement attracts all companies. Avoiding deforestation leakage requires harmonizing deforestation regulations across regions and commodities and promoting sustainable intensification in cattle ranching.

  9. Geographic concentration and driving forces of agricultural land use in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Yuluan; Li, Xiubin; Xin, Liangjie; Hao, Haiguang

    2012-03-01

    Since the 1990s, China has entered the middle phase of urbanization which leads to the existence of significant geographic concentration of agricultural land use. The average value of regional concentration degree of ten representative crops in China was 59.03%, showing a high degree of geographic concentration in farming. Some typical agriculture provinces in farming have arisen. The degree of geographic concentration in farming has been enhanced, with the average degree of regional concentration of ten crops increasing considerably by 3.83% in 2009 compared to that in 1990 (55.20%). The spatial growing center of farming was found to move westward and northward during 1990-2009. Meanwhile food production concentrated in the Northeast China and main producing area, and cash crops production concentrated in Northwest China. Off-farm employment of rural labor force, commercialization of agricultural product and regional comparative advantage are the main driving forces of geographic concentration of agricultural land use. Governmental policies with regional differences should be considered to promote further development of agriculture.

  10. [Influence of land use structure on nitrogen output in the watershed of suburban agriculture regions].

    PubMed

    Yang, Feng; Wang, Peng-ju; Yang, Shan-shan; Wu, Jin-shui; Hu, Rong-gui

    2012-08-01

    This study was conducted in Jintuo watershed of Changsha City, Hunan Province, in the suburban agriculture regions, by selecting 8 sub-basins to examine the effect of land use on watershed runoff nitrogen output. The land use map of watershed was interpreted from Spot-5 image of 2009, and by using hydraulic analysis function and spatial analysis extensions of ArcGIS 9.3, the catchment areas were delineated from DEM. Water sampling was carried out from Dec. 2009 to Nov. 2010, and the relationships between different types of nitrogen export and land use were analyzed. The results showed that nitrogen pollution in the watershed was extremely serious. There was a distinct seasonal variation in the following order: WI > SP > SU approximately = FA in the output concentration of total nitrogen and ammonium nitrogen which was not observed in the nitrate output. Moreover, land use was a dominant factor that determined the export of nitrogen, and especially a significant correlation was figured out between the nitrate output concentration and the land use structure. Forest and water body had a negative impact on nitrate output concentration while dry land, paddy field and habitation road had a positive effect. However, the effects varied with time. Dry land had the most significant important effect on nitrate output concentration in winter and fall, but in spring and summer was the forest land. The correlation between land use structure and the output concentration of total nitrogen and ammonium nitrogen was not found. The resident number, pig number and fertilization also had a major impact on nitrogen output quantity.

  11. Recent trends in water quality in an agricultural catchment in Eastern Scotland: elucidating the roles of hydrology and land use.

    PubMed

    Dunn, S M; Sample, J; Potts, J; Abel, C; Cook, Y; Taylor, C; Vinten, A J A

    2014-07-01

    Across the EU, programmes of measures have been introduced as part of river basin management planning as a means of tackling problems of diffuse pollution from agriculture. Evidence is required to demonstrate the effectiveness of these measures and with this overarching objective, monitoring of an agricultural catchment in Eastern Scotland was initiated in 2007. As a precursor to evaluating the effect of new management measures it is essential to understand how other factors, including hydrology and land use changes, could have influenced water quality. This study undertook an analysis of the trends in concentrations and loads of nitrate, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), suspended solids (SS) and turbidity measured at six points in the catchment over a six year period. The results identified both differing trends between determinands and differing trends occurring over varying spatial scales. The only direct relationships between land use and water quality that could be identified based on annual data was a positive link between arable cropping and nitrate concentrations. At the sub-catchment scale some temporal changes in land use and management explained short-term trends in nitrate but not in SRP. Lags in the system were identified due to soil adsorption, in-stream/loch processing and groundwater transport making the identification of cause and effect problematic. The results have implications for the demonstration of effectiveness of measures over the shorter term and the timescales of recovery from diffuse pollution. Longer term monitoring at small scales will be important in this regard.

  12. Changes in soil carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus due to land-use changes in Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Groppo, J. D.; Lins, S. R. M.; Camargo, P. B.; Assad, E. D.; Pinto, H. S.; Martins, S. C.; Salgado, P. R.; Evangelista, B.; Vasconcellos, E.; Sano, E. E.; Pavão, E.; Luna, R.; Martinelli, L. A.

    2015-08-01

    In this paper, soil carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations and stocks were investigated in agricultural and natural areas in 17 plot-level paired sites and in a regional survey encompassing more than 100 pasture soils In the paired sites, elemental soil concentrations and stocks were determined in native vegetation (forests and savannas), pastures and crop-livestock systems (CPSs). Nutrient stocks were calculated for the soil depth intervals 0-10, 0-30, and 0-60 cm for the paired sites and 0-10, and 0-30 cm for the pasture regional survey by sum stocks obtained in each sampling intervals (0-5, 5-10, 10-20, 20-30, 30-40, 40-60 cm). Overall, there were significant differences in soil element concentrations and ratios between different land uses, especially in the surface soil layers. Carbon and nitrogen contents were lower, while phosphorus contents were higher in the pasture and CPS soils than in native vegetation soils. Additionally, soil stoichiometry has changed with changes in land use. The soil C : N ratio was lower in the native vegetation than in the pasture and CPS soils, and the carbon and nitrogen to available phosphorus ratio (PME) decreased from the native vegetation to the pasture to the CPS soils. In the plot-level paired sites, the soil nitrogen stocks were lower in all depth intervals in pasture and in the CPS soils when compared with the native vegetation soils. On the other hand, the soil phosphorus stocks were higher in all depth intervals in agricultural soils when compared with the native vegetation soils. For the regional pasture survey, soil nitrogen and phosphorus stocks were lower in all soil intervals in pasture soils than in native vegetation soils. The nitrogen loss with cultivation observed here is in line with other studies and it seems to be a combination of decreasing organic matter inputs, in cases where crops replaced native forests, with an increase in soil organic matter decomposition that leads to a decrease in the long

  13. Land use change and landslide characteristics analysis for community-based disaster mitigation.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chien-Yuan; Huang, Wen-Lin

    2013-05-01

    On August 8, 2009, Typhoon Morakot brought heavy rain to Taiwan, causing numerous landslides and debris flows in the Taihe village area of Meishan Township, Chiayi County, in south-central Taiwan. In the Taihe land is primary used for agriculture and land use management may be a factor in the area's landslides. This study explores Typhoon Morakot-induced landslides and land use changes between 1999 and 2009 using GIS with the aid of field investigation. Spot 5 satellite images with a resolution of 2.5 m are used for landslide interpretation and manually digitalized in GIS. A statistical analysis for landslide frequency-area distribution was used to identify the landslide characteristics associated with different types of land use. There were 243 landslides with a total area of 2.75 km(2) in the study area. The area is located in intrinsically fragile combinations of sandstone and shale. Typhoon Morakot-induced landslides show a power-law distribution in the study area. Landslides were mainly located in steep slope areas containing natural forest and in areas planted with bamboo, tea, and betel nut. Land covered with natural forest shows the highest landslide ratio, followed by bamboo, betel nut, and tea. Landslides thus show a higher ratio in areas planted with shallow root vegetation such as bamboo, betel nut, and tea. Furthermore, the degree of basin development is proportional to the landslide ratio. The results show that a change in vegetation cover results in a modified landslide area and frequency and changed land use areas have higher landslide ratios than non-changed. Land use management and community-based disaster prevention are needed in mountainous areas of Taiwan for hazard mitigation.

  14. Climatic and land-use driven change of runoff throughout Sweden

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Worman, A. L. E.; Riml, J.; Lindstrom, G.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in runoff can be caused by climatic variations, land-use changes and water regulation. In this paper we propose a separation of the power spectral response of runoff in watersheds in terms of the product of the power spectra of precipitation and the impulse response function for the watershed. This allows a formal separation of the spectral response in climatic factors - the precipitation - from those of land-use change and regulation - the impulse response function. The latter function characterizes the surface water-groundwater interaction, stream network topology and open channel hydraulics. Based on daily data of digitalized hydro-climatological data from 1961, we constructed synthetic, but calibrated data of runoff from 1001 watersheds in Sweden. From spectral analysis of the data we found periodic fluctuations occurring on time scales of about a decade and a bi-annual peak. These multi-annual fluctuations could be statistically linked through the coherence spectra to climatic indices like the NAO, PDO, geostrophic wind velocity and sun spot numbers on common periods of 3,6 and 7,6 years. Such long-term fluctuations in runoff are not significantly affected by the land-use or regulation other than indirectly through impact on local hydro-climate. Based on a spectral separation of precipitation and impulse response function of the watersheds, we found that the intra-annual variation in runoff was primarily affected by the land-use change in 79 unregulated catchments with up to century-long time series of measured daily discharge. There is a statistically significant increasing slope of the catchments impulse response function for 63 of the 79 catchments and this suggest a significant hydrological effect of land-use practice in agriculture, urbanisation and forestry.

  15. Increasing streamflow and baseflow in Mississippi River since the 1940 s: Effect of land use change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zhang, Y.-K.; Schilling, K.E.

    2006-01-01

    A trend of increasing streamflow has been observed in the Mississippi River (MR) basin since the 1940 s as a result of increased precipitation. Herein we show that increasing MR flow is mainly in its baseflow as a result of land use change and accompanying agricultural activities that occurred in the MR basin during the last 60 years. Agricultural land use change in the MR basin has affected the basin-scale hydrology: more precipitation is being routed into streams as baseflow than stormflow since 1940 s. We explain that the conversion of perennial vegetation to seasonal row crops, especially soybeans, in the basin since 1940 s may have reduced evapotranspiration, increased groundwater recharge, and thus increased baseflow and streamflow. This explanation is supported with a data analysis of the annually and monthly flow rates at various river stations in the MR basin. Results from this study will help to direct our effort in managing land use and in reducing nutrient levels in MR and other major rivers since nutrient concentrations and loads carried by storm water and baseflow are different. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Seasonal temperature responses to land-use change in the western United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kueppers, L.M.; Snyder, M.A.; Sloan, L.C.; Cayan, D.; Jin, J.; Kanamaru, H.; Kanamitsu, M.; Miller, N.L.; Tyree, Mary; Du, H.; Weare, B.

    2008-01-01

    In the western United States, more than 79 000??km2 has been converted to irrigated agriculture and urban areas. These changes have the potential to alter surface temperature by modifying the energy budget at the land-atmosphere interface. This study reports the seasonally varying temperature responses of four regional climate models (RCMs) - RSM, RegCM3, MM5-CLM3, and DRCM - to conversion of potential natural vegetation to modern land-cover and land-use over a 1-year period. Three of the RCMs supplemented soil moisture, producing large decreases in the August mean (- 1.4 to - 3.1????C) and maximum (- 2.9 to - 6.1????C) 2-m air temperatures where natural vegetation was converted to irrigated agriculture. Conversion to irrigated agriculture also resulted in large increases in relative humidity (9% to 36% absolute change). Modeled changes in the August minimum 2-m air temperature were not as pronounced or consistent across the models. Converting natural vegetation to urban land-cover produced less pronounced temperature effects in all models, with the magnitude of the effect dependent upon the preexisting vegetation type and urban parameterizations. Overall, the RCM results indicate that the temperature impacts of land-use change are most pronounced during the summer months, when surface heating is strongest and differences in surface soil moisture between irrigated land and natural vegetation are largest. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Monitoring Land Use Change in the Santa Monica Mountains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willis, K. S.; Gillespie, T.

    2011-12-01

    Land use change is a subject that is gaining both importance and interest in today's world due to increasing human populations, demand for land, and an interest in environmental conservation. A prime example of this is in the Los Angeles adjacent Santa Monica Mountains National Park (SAMO). The landscape in the mountains is continuously being developed to support sizable homesteads and commercial developments. SAMO exists in patches, with private land owner parcels existing within the larger footprint of the recreation area itself. Because of their close proximity, these residential areas have a significant effect on the natural vegetation in the area. Access roads further fragment the landscape, while fire policy measures impact the vegetation. The number and nature of these private lands have changed significantly over the past century, which has already changed the landscape and the plant species composition in the area. This paper aims to quantify the changes occurring on a landscape level in SAMO by comparing a time series of remotely sensed images to identify landscape dynamics via changes among certain variables. The specific variables to be monitored in SAMO will include but not be limited to: vegetative species composition and phenology, fire susceptibility, and habitat fragmentation. These will be identified using current data from National Park Service GIS archives, as well as from remotely sensed images using Landsat data. The expected result of this will show landscape dynamics over the past few decades according to vegetation cover, disturbance and human development, and will give insight into specific locations where future Park Service monitoring programs should be focused.

  18. Changes in streamflow characteristics in Wisconsin as related to precipitation and land use

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gebert, Warren A.; Garn, Herbert S.; Rose, William J.

    2016-01-19

    Streamflow characteristics were determined for 15 longterm streamflow-gaging stations for the periods 1915–2008, 1915–68, and 1969–2008 to identify trends. Stations selected represent flow characteristics for the major river basins in Wisconsin. Trends were statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level at 13 of the 15 streamflow-gaging stations for various streamflow characteristics for 1915–2008. Most trends indicated increases in low flows for streams with agriculture as the dominant land use. The three most important findings are: increases in low flows and average flows in agricultural watersheds, decreases in flood peak discharge for many streams in both agricultural and forested watersheds, and climatic change occurred with increasing annual precipitation and changes in monthly occurrence of precipitation. When the 1915–68 period is compared to the 1969–2008 period, the annual 7-day low flow increased an average of 60 percent for nine streams in agricultural areas as compared to a 15 percent increase for the five forested streams. Average annual flow for the same periods increased 23 percent for the agriculture streams and 0.6 percent for the forested streams. The annual flood peak discharge for the same periods decreased 15 percent for agriculture streams and 8 percent for forested streams. The largest increase in the annual 7-day low flow was 117 percent, the largest increase in annual average flow was 41 percent, and the largest decrease in annual peak discharge was 51 percent. The trends in streamflow characteristics affect frequency characteristics, which are used for a variety of design and compliance purposes. The frequencies for the 1969–2008 period were compared to frequencies for the 1915–68 period. The 7-day, 10-year (Q7, 10) low flow increased 91 percent for nine agricultural streams, while the five forested streams had an increase of 18 percent. The 100-year flood peak discharge decreased an average of 15 percent

  19. Changes in streamflow characteristics in Wisconsin as related to precipitation and land use

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gebert, Warren A.; Garn, Herbert S.; Rose, William J.

    2016-01-01

    Streamflow characteristics were determined for 15 longterm streamflow-gaging stations for the periods 1915–2008, 1915–68, and 1969–2008 to identify trends. Stations selected represent flow characteristics for the major river basins in Wisconsin. Trends were statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level at 13 of the 15 streamflow-gaging stations for various streamflow characteristics for 1915–2008. Most trends indicated increases in low flows for streams with agriculture as the dominant land use. The three most important findings are: increases in low flows and average flows in agricultural watersheds, decreases in flood peak discharge for many streams in both agricultural and forested watersheds, and climatic change occurred with increasing annual precipitation and changes in monthly occurrence of precipitation. When the 1915–68 period is compared to the 1969–2008 period, the annual 7-day low flow increased an average of 60 percent for nine streams in agricultural areas as compared to a 15 percent increase for the five forested streams. Average annual flow for the same periods increased 23 percent for the agriculture streams and 0.6 percent for the forested streams. The annual flood peak discharge for the same periods decreased 15 percent for agriculture streams and 8 percent for forested streams. The largest increase in the annual 7-day low flow was 117 percent, the largest increase in annual average flow was 41 percent, and the largest decrease in annual peak discharge was 51 percent. The trends in streamflow characteristics affect frequency characteristics, which are used for a variety of design and compliance purposes. The frequencies for the 1969–2008 period were compared to frequencies for the 1915–68 period. The 7-day, 10-year (Q7, 10) low flow increased 91 percent for nine agricultural streams, while the five forested streams had an increase of 18 percent. The 100-year flood peak discharge decreased an average of 15 percent

  20. Impacts of Land Use Change on Energy Usage and Ghg Emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeyachandran, I.; Eltrop, L.; Jenssen, T.; Marathe, S. D.

    2014-12-01

    Urbanization has a profound impact on landscape modification and subsequent impacts on energy usage and associated Green House Gas (GHG) emissions. In this paper, a methodology to assess the impact of land use change on energy demand and Green House Gas emissions using remote sensing data is presented. The methodology development was carried out using region of Stuttgart, Germany as the case study for the time period of 1990 to 2006. The first step involved using Corine land cover corresponding to the years 1990, 2000 and 2006 in conjunction with the administrative boundary map of the region of Stuttgart to assess the land use change from 1990 to 2006. The second step of the methodology involved using ATKIS building data of 2004 in conjunction with the land use data of 1990, and 2000 to identify the buildings in 1990 and 2000 and assess the land use conversion to built areas due to urbanization. Also the building types were identified, and the energy usage for heating and cooling was modeled using local guidelines. As the final step, the GHG emissions associated with heating and energy demand was estimated for the years 1990, 2000 and 2004 using the empirical relation set by Öko-Institute (2011). The results of the study indicate that there has been a significant increase in urban residential built surfaces (17%) and decrease in urban greenery, forest and agricultural areas during the time period of 1990 to 2004. The increase in residential built surfaces has resulted in an increase of electricity and heating demand and a subsequent increase in GHG emissions(14%). The methodology presented in this paper brings forth the use of remote sensing to estimate and predict GHG emissions resulting from land use changes.

  1. Land use/cover change detection and urban sprawl analysis in Bandar Abbas city, Iran.

    PubMed

    Dadras, Mohsen; Shafri, Helmi Zulhaidi Mohd; Ahmad, Noordin; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Safarpour, Sahabeh

    2014-01-01

    The process of land use change and urban sprawl has been considered as a prominent characteristic of urban development. This study aims to investigate urban growth process in Bandar Abbas city, Iran, focusing on urban sprawl and land use change during 1956-2012. To calculate urban sprawl and land use changes, aerial photos and satellite images are utilized in different time spans. The results demonstrate that urban region area has changed from 403.77 to 4959.59 hectares between 1956 and 2012. Moreover, the population has increased more than 30 times in last six decades. The major part of population growth is related to migration from other parts the country to Bandar Abbas city. Considering the speed of urban sprawl growth rate, the scale and the role of the city have changed from medium and regional to large scale and transregional. Due to natural and structural limitations, more than 80% of barren lands, stone cliffs, beach zone, and agricultural lands are occupied by built-up areas. Our results revealed that the irregular expansion of Bandar Abbas city must be controlled so that sustainable development could be achieved.

  2. Land use/cover change detection and urban sprawl analysis in Bandar Abbas city, Iran.

    PubMed

    Dadras, Mohsen; Shafri, Helmi Zulhaidi Mohd; Ahmad, Noordin; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Safarpour, Sahabeh

    2014-01-01

    The process of land use change and urban sprawl has been considered as a prominent characteristic of urban development. This study aims to investigate urban growth process in Bandar Abbas city, Iran, focusing on urban sprawl and land use change during 1956-2012. To calculate urban sprawl and land use changes, aerial photos and satellite images are utilized in different time spans. The results demonstrate that urban region area has changed from 403.77 to 4959.59 hectares between 1956 and 2012. Moreover, the population has increased more than 30 times in last six decades. The major part of population growth is related to migration from other parts the country to Bandar Abbas city. Considering the speed of urban sprawl growth rate, the scale and the role of the city have changed from medium and regional to large scale and transregional. Due to natural and structural limitations, more than 80% of barren lands, stone cliffs, beach zone, and agricultural lands are occupied by built-up areas. Our results revealed that the irregular expansion of Bandar Abbas city must be controlled so that sustainable development could be achieved. PMID:25276858

  3. Land Use/Cover Change Detection and Urban Sprawl Analysis in Bandar Abbas City, Iran

    PubMed Central

    Mohd Shafri, Helmi Zulhaidi; Ahmad, Noordin; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Safarpour, Sahabeh

    2014-01-01

    The process of land use change and urban sprawl has been considered as a prominent characteristic of urban development. This study aims to investigate urban growth process in Bandar Abbas city, Iran, focusing on urban sprawl and land use change during 1956–2012. To calculate urban sprawl and land use changes, aerial photos and satellite images are utilized in different time spans. The results demonstrate that urban region area has changed from 403.77 to 4959.59 hectares between 1956 and 2012. Moreover, the population has increased more than 30 times in last six decades. The major part of population growth is related to migration from other parts the country to Bandar Abbas city. Considering the speed of urban sprawl growth rate, the scale and the role of the city have changed from medium and regional to large scale and transregional. Due to natural and structural limitations, more than 80% of barren lands, stone cliffs, beach zone, and agricultural lands are occupied by built-up areas. Our results revealed that the irregular expansion of Bandar Abbas city must be controlled so that sustainable development could be achieved. PMID:25276858

  4. Temporal changes of land use in Asi river delta (Hatay, Southern Turkey).

    PubMed

    Korkmaz, Hüseyin; Cetin, Bayram; Kuscu, Veysel; Ege, Ismail; Bom, Ahmet; Ozsahin, Emre; Karatas, Atilla

    2012-04-01

    Increasing non-ecological land use necessitates more efficient using and utilization of land by man. Therefore, in recent years studies on sustainable land use have gained momentum. In this study, temporal change in land use, mainly between years 1940 and 2010, in Asi river delta on Southern Turkey was covered. To this end, in addition to literature, topographical maps and satellite images from year 1940 and after were used. Also, data were collected through field studies and interviews. Collected data were evaluated from geographical viewpoint using Geographical information system (GIS) and Remote sensing (RS) methods. Unplanned settlement in delta has reached levels high enough to threaten agricultural fields. Especially, greattendencyshown by Samandag city and the villages around it towards expanding into delta is an indicatorof this threat In additon, uncontrolled sand mining and touristic facilities on the coastline are also indicators of wrong land use. In future, direction of settlement to slopes around the delta rather than lowlands will be a much more ecological approach.

  5. Influence of climate and land use change on spatially resolved volatilization of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) from background soils.

    PubMed

    Komprda, Jiří; Komprdová, Klára; Sáňka, Milan; Možný, Martin; Nizzetto, Luca

    2013-07-01

    The subject of this study is the assessment of the influence of climate and land use change on the potential re-emission of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) from background and agricultural soils. A deterministic spatially and temporally explicit model of the air-surface exchange was created, fed with distributed data of soil and atmospheric concentrations from real measurements, and run under various scenarios of temperature and land use change for a case study area representative of central European conditions. To describe land use influence, some important features were implemented including effect of plowing, influence of land cover, temperature of soil, and seasonal changes of air layer stability. Results show that volatilization of pesticides from soil largely exceeded dry gas deposition in most of the area. Agricultural soils accounted for more than 90% of the total re-emissions both because of the generally higher soil fugacities (higher loads of chemicals and relatively low organic carbon content), but also due to physical characteristics and land management practices enhancing the dynamics of the exchange. An increase of 1 °C in air temperature produced an increase of 8% in the averaged total volatilization flux, however this effect can be neutralized by a change of land use of 10% of the arable lands to grassland or forest, which is consistent with projected land use change in Europe. This suggests that future assessment of climate impact on POP fate and distribution should take into consideration land use aspects.

  6. Modelling climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction impacts on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bussi, Gianbattista; Whitehead, Paul; Dadson, Simon

    2016-04-01

    In this study, we assess the impact of changes in precipitation and temperature on the phytoplankton concentration of the River Thames (UK) by means of a physically-based model. A scenario-neutral approach was employed to evaluate the effects of climate variability on flow, phosphorus concentration and phytoplankton concentration. In particular, the impact of uniform changes in precipitation and temperature on five groups of phytoplankton (diatoms and large chlorophytes, other chlorophytes, picoalgae, Microcystis-like cyanobacteria and other cyanobacteria) was assessed under three different land-use/land-management scenarios (1 - current land use and phosphorus reduction practices; 2 - expansion of agricultural land and current phosphorus reduction practices; 3 - expansion of agricultural land and optimal phosphorus reduction practices). The model results were assessed within the framework of future climate projections, using the UK Climate Projections 09 (UKCP09) for the 2030s. The results of the model demonstrate that an increase in average phytoplankton concentration due to climate change is highly likely to occur, and its magnitude varies depending on the river reach. Cyanobacteria show significant increases under future climate change and land-use change. An expansion of intensive agriculture accentuates the growth in phytoplankton, especially in the upper reaches of the River Thames. However, an optimal phosphorus removal mitigation strategy, which combines reduction of fertiliser application and phosphorus removal from wastewater, can help to reduce this increase in phytoplankton concentration, and in some cases, compensate for the effect of rising temperature.

  7. Land-use and environmental changes in the Cerrados of South-Eastern Mato Grosso -- Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grecchi, Rosana Cristina

    The human-induced changes of the Earth's land surfaces have been unprecedented, with outcomes often indicating degradation and loss of environmental quality. Mato Grosso State in Brazil, location of the study area, underwent extensive land-use and land-cover changes in recent decades with the rates, patterns and consequences poorly documented until now. In this context, the aim of the present research is to propose a multidisciplinary approach for quantifying historical land-use and environmental changes in the southeast part of this State, where the Cerrado biome (Brazilian savannas) has been intensively converted into agricultural lands. The methodology includes three parts: remote sensing change detection, land vulnerability mapping, and identification of key environmental indicators. Land-use/cover information was extracted from a temporal remote sensing dataset using an object-oriented classification approach, and the changes quantified employing a post-classification method. In addition, the study area was assessed for its vulnerabilities, focusing mainly on erosion risks, wetlands, and areas with limited or no suitability for crops. Finally, key environmental indicators were identified from the preceding steps and analyzed within the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework. The results provided an improved mapping of the Cerrados natural vegetation conversion into crops and pastures, and indicate that the Cerrado vegetation was intensively converted and also became more fragmented in the time frame studied. Between 1985 and 2005 the area lost approximately 6491 km 2 of Cerrados (42 %). Modeling based on the Universal Soil Loss Equation indicated significant increase in erosion risk from 1985 to 2005 mainly related to the increase in crop areas and the crops' encroachment into more fragile lands. The identification of environmental indicators rendered complex environmental information more

  8. Impact of Land-Use Intensity and Productivity on Bryophyte Diversity in Agricultural Grasslands

    PubMed Central

    Müller, Jörg; Klaus, Valentin H.; Kleinebecker, Till; Prati, Daniel; Hölzel, Norbert; Fischer, Markus

    2012-01-01

    While bryophytes greatly contribute to plant diversity of semi-natural grasslands, little is known about the relationships between land-use intensity, productivity, and bryophyte diversity in these habitats. We recorded vascular plant and bryophyte vegetation in 85 agricultural used grasslands in two regions in northern and central Germany and gathered information on land-use intensity. To assess grassland productivity, we harvested aboveground vascular plant biomass and analyzed nutrient concentrations of N, P, K, Ca and Mg. Further we calculated mean Ellenberg indicator values of vascular plant vegetation. We tested for effects of land-use intensity and productivity on total bryophyte species richness and on the species richness of acrocarpous (small & erect) and pleurocarpous (creeping, including liverworts) growth forms separately. Bryophyte species were found in almost all studied grasslands, but species richness differed considerably between study regions in northern Germany (2.8 species per 16 m2) and central Germany (6.4 species per 16 m2) due environmental differences as well as land-use history. Increased fertilizer application, coinciding with high mowing frequency, reduced bryophyte species richness significantly. Accordingly, productivity estimates such as plant biomass and nitrogen concentration were strongly negatively related to bryophyte species richness, although productivity decreased only pleurocarpous species. Ellenberg indicator values for nutrients proved to be useful indicators of species richness and productivity. In conclusion, bryophyte composition was strongly dependent on productivity, with smaller bryophytes that were likely negatively affected by greater competition for light. Intensive land-use, however, can also indirectly decrease bryophyte species richness by promoting grassland productivity. Thus, increasing productivity is likely to cause a loss of bryophyte species and a decrease in species diversity. PMID:23251563

  9. Reconstructing Land Use History from Landsat Time-Series. Case study of Swidden Agriculture Intensification in Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dutrieux, L.; Jakovac, C. C.; Siti, L. H.; Kooistra, L.

    2015-12-01

    land use history mapping in the tropics and beyond. Spatial and temporal patterns were further analysed with an ecological perspective in a follow-up study. Results show that changes in land use patterns such as land use intensification and reduced agricultural expansion reflect the socio-economic transformations that occurred in the region

  10. The Trajectories and Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Change: A Global Synthesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mustard, J. F.; Fisher, T. R.; Prince, S. D.; Soja, A. J.; Elmore, A. J.

    2001-12-01

    We have summarized the trajectories of land cover and land use change (LCLUC) and the resulting impacts through a synthesis of results from studies encompassing a wide range of environments. While the specific changes and impacts are in some ways unique to each environment, we have nevertheless identified some general principles that seem to apply across all regions. The LCLUC trajectory of a particular landscape under influence by human actions begins with the transition from conditions dominated by natural vegetation to a frontier state. Land use activities in a frontier state are centered primarily around resource extraction and development of infrastructure such as roads or ports. Under the proper conditions (e.g. soils, climate), the frontier state gives way to an agricultural landscape by further conversion of natural vegetation to agriculture and management of cleared land for agriculture. The maximum extent of this conversion is a function of local biophysical and socio-economic factors. For example conversion of arid lands may be limited by water availability, access to capital for development of water resources and access to markets for the products. Given the appropriate conditions (e.g. economic and social policy, generation of wealth), LCLUC evolves as large settlements and industrialization develop in concert with high land prices and agricultural intensification. In some cases (e.g., New England, Appalachia), economic conditions (e.g., better land for agriculture elsewhere) may result in reversion of agriculture to natural vegetation. The last stage in LCLUC is conversion of agriculture to residential and suburban environments (e.g., Baltimore/Washington corridor). Examination of global land cover indicates that every stage is currently present, with areas like the Eastern United States and Western Europe as examples of regions having experienced all stages, while parts of the Amazon basin, Siberia, and Africa are moving through the frontier

  11. Land Use Change, Fuel Use and Respiratory Health in Uganda

    PubMed Central

    Jagger, Pamela; Shively, Gerald

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines how biomass supply and consumption are affected by land use change in Uganda. We find that between 2007 and 2012 there was a 22% reduction in fuelwood sourced from proximate forests, and an 18% increase in fuelwood sourced from fallows and other areas with lower biomass availability and quality. We estimate a series of panel regression models and find that deforestation has a negative effect on total fuel consumed. We also find that access to forests, whether through ownership or proximity, plays a large role in determining fuel use. We then explore whether patterns of biomass fuel consumption are related to the incidence of acute respiratory infection using a cross-sectional data set of 1209 women and 598 children. We find a positive and significant relationship between ARI and the quantity of fuelwood from non-forest areas; a 100 kilogram increase in fuelwood sourced from a non-forest area results in a 2.4% increase in the incidence of ARI for children. We find the inverse effect of increased reliance on crop residues. As deforestation reduces the availability of high quality fuelwood, rural households may experience higher incidence of health problems associated with exposure to biomass burning. PMID:24535892

  12. Land Use Change, Fuel Use and Respiratory Health in Uganda.

    PubMed

    Jagger, Pamela; Shively, Gerald

    2014-04-01

    This paper examines how biomass supply and consumption are affected by land use change in Uganda. We find that between 2007 and 2012 there was a 22% reduction in fuelwood sourced from proximate forests, and an 18% increase in fuelwood sourced from fallows and other areas with lower biomass availability and quality. We estimate a series of panel regression models and find that deforestation has a negative effect on total fuel consumed. We also find that access to forests, whether through ownership or proximity, plays a large role in determining fuel use. We then explore whether patterns of biomass fuel consumption are related to the incidence of acute respiratory infection using a cross-sectional data set of 1209 women and 598 children. We find a positive and significant relationship between ARI and the quantity of fuelwood from non-forest areas; a 100 kilogram increase in fuelwood sourced from a non-forest area results in a 2.4% increase in the incidence of ARI for children. We find the inverse effect of increased reliance on crop residues. As deforestation reduces the availability of high quality fuelwood, rural households may experience higher incidence of health problems associated with exposure to biomass burning.

  13. Land-use and climate driven changes in BVOC emissions and their impacts on atmospheric chemistry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porter, W. C.; Baughman, E. C.; Barsanti, K. C.; Rosenstiel, T.

    2011-12-01

    Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) play an important role in atmospheric chemistry and climate, while being simultaneously impacted by chemical and climate changes. With BVOC emissions closely connected to human-driven climate and land-use changes, it will be increasingly important to understand the mechanisms by which these varying emissions impact regional air quality. BVOCs contribute to the formation of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) through oxidation reactions with hydroxyl radical, and to the formation of tropospheric ozone (O3) through photochemical reactions in the presence of nitrogen oxides (NOx). PM2.5 and O3 are both criteria pollutants, making BVOC emissions and the various anthropogenic factors affecting them important considerations in evaluating current and future air quality scenarios. One pressing land-use change affecting BVOC emissions is the conversion of agricultural land to the production of biofuel crops such as the perennial cane Arundo donax. While Arundo donax possesses qualities that make it an ideal biofuel candidate, including hardiness and a rapid growth rate, it is also a high emitter of isoprene. Here the impacts of converting low isoprene-emitting agricultural land for biofuel production were studied using the regional chemical transport model WRF-Chem coupled with the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). Three replacement areas in the US were chosen to represent a range of volatile organic compound (VOC) to NOx ratios, and thus NOx to VOC limited regimes. At each of the chosen sites, the MEGAN input maps for leaf area index, plant functional type, and isoprene emission factor were modified to reflect a change to Arundo donax. In addition to these land-use changes, the MADE-SORGAM aerosol module in WRF-Chem was updated to include isoprene as a secondary organic aerosol precursor. In order to include the potential impacts of climate change on BVOC emissions from Arundo donax, multiple

  14. Analysis of land use changes near large water bodies in Ukraine using GIS.

    PubMed

    Bogdanets, Vyacheslav; Vlaev, Anatoliy

    2015-01-01

    Analysis of land use and land cover changes in Ukraine were evaluated with special attention given to the interaction of land and water resources. The rational fresh water management in agriculture under future climate change conditions is of great importance. The hydrological regime of a river has huge impact on the environment of the surrounding area. Creating reservoirs, changes the landscape of river valleys and lake basins. Changes in the hydrological regime of the river and the process taking place in the coastal zone are reflected in land cover, wildlife and micro-climatic conditions. In the area closer to the shore line of the reservoir, there is greater amplitude of fluctuations in the level of ground water due to low rate of filtration behind fluctuations in the level of the reservoir. The interaction of water reservoirs with the environment, especially with the nature of the catchment area is substantially different from the natural water bodies. Analysis was done using GIS and remotely sensed data of land use near large water reservoirs and processed statistically. The ratio of arable lands and forested territories and future analysis of land use has been discussed. PMID:26591880

  15. Analysis of land use changes near large water bodies in Ukraine using GIS.

    PubMed

    Bogdanets, Vyacheslav; Vlaev, Anatoliy

    2015-01-01

    Analysis of land use and land cover changes in Ukraine were evaluated with special attention given to the interaction of land and water resources. The rational fresh water management in agriculture under future climate change conditions is of great importance. The hydrological regime of a river has huge impact on the environment of the surrounding area. Creating reservoirs, changes the landscape of river valleys and lake basins. Changes in the hydrological regime of the river and the process taking place in the coastal zone are reflected in land cover, wildlife and micro-climatic conditions. In the area closer to the shore line of the reservoir, there is greater amplitude of fluctuations in the level of ground water due to low rate of filtration behind fluctuations in the level of the reservoir. The interaction of water reservoirs with the environment, especially with the nature of the catchment area is substantially different from the natural water bodies. Analysis was done using GIS and remotely sensed data of land use near large water reservoirs and processed statistically. The ratio of arable lands and forested territories and future analysis of land use has been discussed.

  16. Impact of land cover and land use change on runoff characteristics.

    PubMed

    Sajikumar, N; Remya, R S

    2015-09-15

    Change in Land Cover and Land Use (LCLU) influences the runoff characteristics of a drainage basin to a large extent, which in turn, affects the surface and groundwater availability of the area, and hence leads to further change in LCLU. This forms a vicious circle. Hence it becomes essential to assess the effect of change in LCLU on the runoff characteristics of a region in general and of small watershed levels (sub-basin levels) in particular. Such an analysis can effectively be carried out by using watershed simulation models with integrated GIS frame work. SWAT (Soil and Water Analysis Tool) model, being one of the versatile watershed simulation models, is found to be suitable for this purpose as many GIS integration modules are available for this model (e.g. ArcSWAT, MWSWAT). Watershed simulation using SWAT requires the land use and land cover data, soil data and many other features. With the availability of repository of satellite imageries, both from Indian and foreign sources, it becomes possible to use the concurrent local land use and land cover data, thereby enabling more accurate modelling of small watersheds. Such availability will also enable us to assess the effect of LCLU on runoff characteristics and their reverse impact. The current study assesses the effect of land use and land cover on the runoff characteristics of two watersheds in Kerala, India. It also assesses how the change in land use and land cover in the last few decades affected the runoff characteristics of these watersheds. It is seen that the reduction in the forest area amounts to 60% and 32% in the analysed watersheds. However, the changes in the surface runoff for these watersheds are not comparable with the changes in the forest area but are within 20%. Similarly the maximum (peak) value of runoff has increased by an amount of 15% only. The lesser (aforementioned) effect than expected might be due to the fact that forest has been converted to agricultural purpose with major

  17. Impact of land cover and land use change on runoff characteristics.

    PubMed

    Sajikumar, N; Remya, R S

    2015-09-15

    Change in Land Cover and Land Use (LCLU) influences the runoff characteristics of a drainage basin to a large extent, which in turn, affects the surface and groundwater availability of the area, and hence leads to further change in LCLU. This forms a vicious circle. Hence it becomes essential to assess the effect of change in LCLU on the runoff characteristics of a region in general and of small watershed levels (sub-basin levels) in particular. Such an analysis can effectively be carried out by using watershed simulation models with integrated GIS frame work. SWAT (Soil and Water Analysis Tool) model, being one of the versatile watershed simulation models, is found to be suitable for this purpose as many GIS integration modules are available for this model (e.g. ArcSWAT, MWSWAT). Watershed simulation using SWAT requires the land use and land cover data, soil data and many other features. With the availability of repository of satellite imageries, both from Indian and foreign sources, it becomes possible to use the concurrent local land use and land cover data, thereby enabling more accurate modelling of small watersheds. Such availability will also enable us to assess the effect of LCLU on runoff characteristics and their reverse impact. The current study assesses the effect of land use and land cover on the runoff characteristics of two watersheds in Kerala, India. It also assesses how the change in land use and land cover in the last few decades affected the runoff characteristics of these watersheds. It is seen that the reduction in the forest area amounts to 60% and 32% in the analysed watersheds. However, the changes in the surface runoff for these watersheds are not comparable with the changes in the forest area but are within 20%. Similarly the maximum (peak) value of runoff has increased by an amount of 15% only. The lesser (aforementioned) effect than expected might be due to the fact that forest has been converted to agricultural purpose with major

  18. Projecting large-scale area changes in land use and land cover for terrestrial carbon analyses.

    PubMed

    Alig, Ralph J; Butler, Brett J

    2004-04-01

    One of the largest changes in US forest type areas over the last half-century has involved pine types in the South. The area of planted pine has increased more than 10-fold since 1950, mostly on private lands. Private landowners have responded to market incentives and government programs, including subsidized afforestation on marginal agricultural land. Timber harvest is a crucial disturbance affecting planted pine area, as other forest types are converted to planted pine after harvest. Conversely, however, many harvested pine plantations revert to other forest types, mainly due to passive regeneration behavior on nonindustrial private timberlands. We model land use and land cover changes as a basis for projecting future changes in planted pine area, to aid policy analysts concerned with mitigation activities for global climate change. Projections are prepared in two stages. Projected land use changes include deforestation due to pressures to develop rural land as the human population expands, which is a larger area than that converted from other rural lands (e.g., agriculture) to forestry. In the second stage, transitions among forest types are projected on land allocated to forestry. We consider reforestation, influences of timber harvest, and natural succession and disturbance processes. Baseline projections indicate a net increase of about 5.6 million ha in planted pine area in the South over the next 50 years, with a notable increase in sequestered carbon. Additional opportunities to expand pine plantation area warrant study of landowner behavior to aid in designing more effective incentives for inducing land use and land cover changes to help mitigate climate change and attain other goals.

  19. Deriving a per-field land use and land cover map in an agricultural mosaic catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seo, B.; Bogner, C.; Poppenborg, P.; Martin, E.; Hoffmeister, M.; Jun, M.; Koellner, T.; Reineking, B.; Shope, C. L.; Tenhunen, J.

    2014-04-01

    Detailed data on land use and land cover constitutes important information for Earth system models, environmental monitoring and ecosystem services research. Global land cover products are evolving rapidly, however, there is still a lack of information particularly for heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. We censused land use and land cover field by field in an agricultural mosaic catchment Haean, South Korea. We recorded the land cover types with additional information on agricultural practice and make this data available at the public repository Pangaea (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.823677). In this paper we introduce the data, its collection and the post-processing protocol. During the studied period, a large portion of dry fields was converted to perennial crops. A comparison between our dataset and MODIS Land Cover Type (MCD12Q1) suggested that the MODIS product was restricted in this area since it does not distinguish irrigated fields from general croplands. In addition, linear landscape elements such as water bodies were not detected in the MODIS product due to its coarse spatial resolution. The data presented here can be useful for earth science and ecosystem services research.

  20. Remote sensing of land use/cover changes and its effect on wind erosion potential in southern Iran.

    PubMed

    Rezaei, Mahrooz; Sameni, Abdolmajid; Fallah Shamsi, Seyed Rashid; Bartholomeus, Harm

    2016-01-01

    Wind erosion is a complex process influenced by different factors. Most of these factors are stable over time, but land use/cover and land management practices are changing gradually. Therefore, this research investigates the impact of changing land use/cover and land management on wind erosion potential in southern Iran. We used remote sensing data (Landsat ETM+ and Landsat 8 imagery of 2004 and 2013) for land use/cover mapping and employed the Iran Research Institute of Forest and Rangeland (IRIFR) method to estimate changes in wind erosion potential. For an optimal mapping, the performance of different classification algorithms and input layers was tested. The amount of changes in wind erosion and land use/cover were quantified using cross-tabulation between the two years. To discriminate land use/cover related to wind erosion, the best results were obtained by combining the original spectral bands with synthetic bands and using Maximum Likelihood classification algorithm (Kappa Coefficient of 0.8 and 0.9 for Landsat ETM+ and Landsat 8, respectively). The IRIFR modelling results indicate that the wind erosion potential has increased over the last decade. The areas with a very high sediment yield potential have increased, whereas the areas with a low, medium, and high sediment yield potential decreased. The area with a very low sediment yield potential have remained constant. When comparing the change in erosion potential with land use/cover change, it is evident that soil erosion potential has increased mostly in accordance with the increase of the area of agricultural practices. The conversion of rangeland to agricultural land was a major land-use change which lead to more agricultural practices and associated soil loss. Moreover, results indicate an increase in sandification in the study area which is also a clear evidence of increasing in soil erosion.

  1. Remote sensing of land use/cover changes and its effect on wind erosion potential in southern Iran.

    PubMed

    Rezaei, Mahrooz; Sameni, Abdolmajid; Fallah Shamsi, Seyed Rashid; Bartholomeus, Harm

    2016-01-01

    Wind erosion is a complex process influenced by different factors. Most of these factors are stable over time, but land use/cover and land management practices are changing gradually. Therefore, this research investigates the impact of changing land use/cover and land management on wind erosion potential in southern Iran. We used remote sensing data (Landsat ETM+ and Landsat 8 imagery of 2004 and 2013) for land use/cover mapping and employed the Iran Research Institute of Forest and Rangeland (IRIFR) method to estimate changes in wind erosion potential. For an optimal mapping, the performance of different classification algorithms and input layers was tested. The amount of changes in wind erosion and land use/cover were quantified using cross-tabulation between the two years. To discriminate land use/cover related to wind erosion, the best results were obtained by combining the original spectral bands with synthetic bands and using Maximum Likelihood classification algorithm (Kappa Coefficient of 0.8 and 0.9 for Landsat ETM+ and Landsat 8, respectively). The IRIFR modelling results indicate that the wind erosion potential has increased over the last decade. The areas with a very high sediment yield potential have increased, whereas the areas with a low, medium, and high sediment yield potential decreased. The area with a very low sediment yield potential have remained constant. When comparing the change in erosion potential with land use/cover change, it is evident that soil erosion potential has increased mostly in accordance with the increase of the area of agricultural practices. The conversion of rangeland to agricultural land was a major land-use change which lead to more agricultural practices and associated soil loss. Moreover, results indicate an increase in sandification in the study area which is also a clear evidence of increasing in soil erosion. PMID:27547511

  2. Remote sensing of land use/cover changes and its effect on wind erosion potential in southern Iran

    PubMed Central

    Sameni, Abdolmajid; Fallah Shamsi, Seyed Rashid; Bartholomeus, Harm

    2016-01-01

    Wind erosion is a complex process influenced by different factors. Most of these factors are stable over time, but land use/cover and land management practices are changing gradually. Therefore, this research investigates the impact of changing land use/cover and land management on wind erosion potential in southern Iran. We used remote sensing data (Landsat ETM+ and Landsat 8 imagery of 2004 and 2013) for land use/cover mapping and employed the Iran Research Institute of Forest and Rangeland (IRIFR) method to estimate changes in wind erosion potential. For an optimal mapping, the performance of different classification algorithms and input layers was tested. The amount of changes in wind erosion and land use/cover were quantified using cross-tabulation between the two years. To discriminate land use/cover related to wind erosion, the best results were obtained by combining the original spectral bands with synthetic bands and using Maximum Likelihood classification algorithm (Kappa Coefficient of 0.8 and 0.9 for Landsat ETM+ and Landsat 8, respectively). The IRIFR modelling results indicate that the wind erosion potential has increased over the last decade. The areas with a very high sediment yield potential have increased, whereas the areas with a low, medium, and high sediment yield potential decreased. The area with a very low sediment yield potential have remained constant. When comparing the change in erosion potential with land use/cover change, it is evident that soil erosion potential has increased mostly in accordance with the increase of the area of agricultural practices. The conversion of rangeland to agricultural land was a major land-use change which lead to more agricultural practices and associated soil loss. Moreover, results indicate an increase in sandification in the study area which is also a clear evidence of increasing in soil erosion. PMID:27547511

  3. Development and application of multi-proxy indices of land use change for riparian soils in southern New England, USA.

    PubMed

    Ricker, M C; Donohue, S W; Stolt, M H; Zavada, M S

    2012-03-01

    Understanding the effects of land use on riparian systems is dependent upon the development of methodologies to recognize changes in sedimentation related to shifts in land use. Land use trends in southern New England consist of shifts from forested precolonial conditions, to colonial and agrarian land uses, and toward modern industrial-urban landscapes. The goals of this study were to develop a set of stratigraphic indices that reflect these land use periods and to illustrate their applications. Twenty-four riparian sites from first- and second-order watersheds were chosen for study. Soil morphological features, such as buried surface horizons (layers), were useful to identify periods of watershed instability. The presence of human artifacts and increases in heavy metal concentration above background levels, were also effective indicators of industrial-urban land use periods. Increases and peak abundance of non-arboreal weed pollen (Ambrosia) were identified as stratigraphic markers indicative of agricultural land uses. Twelve 14C dates from riparian soils indicated that the rise in non-arboreal pollen corresponds to the start of regional deforestation (AD 1749 +/- 56 cal yr; mean +/- 2 SD) and peak non-arboreal pollen concentration corresponds to maximum agricultural land use (AD 1820 +/- 51 cal yr). These indices were applied to elucidate the impact of land use on riparian sedimentation and soil carbon (C) dynamics. This analysis indicated that the majority of sediment and soil organic carbon (SOC) stored in regional riparian soils is of postcolonial origins. Mean net sedimentation rates increased -100-fold during postcolonial time periods, and net SOC sequestration rates showed an approximate 200-fold increase since precolonial times. These results suggest that headwater riparian zones have acted as an effective sink for alluvial sediment and SOC associated with postcolonial land use. PMID:22611849

  4. Impacts of Land Use Changes on Water Resources: Examples from Australia and China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, L.; Brown, A.; Zhang, X.

    2006-12-01

    Land use changes can significantly modify the hydrological regime of the catchments, affecting water resources and environment. This paper looks at the impacts of land use changes on water resources in both Australia and China and discusses the need for proper planning supported by scientific understanding. In Australia, massive clearing of native forest and woodland for agriculture since the European settlement has caused serious dryland salinity problem in many parts of the country. When deep-rooted perennial vegetation is replaced with agricultural crops, evapotranspiration decreases leading to increased groundwater recharge and streamflow. It has been suggested that by putting trees back to the landscape would reduce groundwater recharge and hence decrease salt load. Plantations can deliver positive hydrologic outcomes in terms of salinity control, but only if established appropriately. In China, extensive soil conservation measures including terraces, sediment-trapping dams, and afforestation have been implemented in catchments from the Loess Plateau since the 1950s. These measures have aimed to reduce soil erosion and improve agricultural productivity. While significant reductions in sediment yield from these catchments have been observed, it is at the cost of decreased streamflow. Analysis showed that on average the annual sediment yield from these catchments decreased by 51%, while reduction in annual stream flow varied between 20 to 45 % with greater reduction in low flows. The development of national plans to expand plantation area in the coming decades in both Australia and China mean that reductions in stream flow are likely. While there are clear environmental benefits associated with an expansion of plantation forestry, including decreased groundwater recharge, reduced erosion, improved water quality, and carbon sequestration, it is essential that proper planning and assessment of such land use changes is undertaken to minimize negative impacts on

  5. Relating United States crop land use to natural resources and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Flores-Mendoza, F.J.; Hubbard, K.G.

    1995-02-01

    Crop production depends not only on the yield but also on the area harvested. The yield response to climate change has been widely examined, but the sensitivity of crop land use to hypothetical climate change has not been examined directly. Crop land-use regression models for estimating crop area indices (CAIs)-the percent of land used for corn, soybean, wheat, and sorghum production-are presented. Inputs to the models include available water-holding capacity of the soil, percent of land available for rain-fed agricultural production, annual precipitation, and annual temperature. The total variance of CAI explained by the models ranged from 78% from wheat to 87% for sorghum, and the root-mean-square errors ranged from 1.74% for sorghum to 4.24% for corn. The introduction of additional climatic variables to the models did not significantly improve their performance. The crop land-use models were used to predict the CAI for every crop reporting district in the United States for the current climatic condition and for possible future climate change scenarios (various combinations of temperature and precipitation changes over a range of -3{degrees} to +6{degrees}C and -20% to +20% respectively). The magnitude of climatic warming suggested by GCMs (GISS and GFDL) is from 3.5{degrees} to 5.9{degrees}C for regions of the United States. For this magnitude of warming, the model suggests corn and soybean production areas may decline while wheat and sorghum production areas may expand. If the warming is accompanied by a decrease in annual precipitation from 1% to 10%, then the areas used for corn and soybean production could decrease by as much as 20% and 40%, respectively. The area for sorghum and wheat under these conditions would increase by as much as 80% and 70%, respectively; the exact amount depending strongly on the change in precipitation. 15 refs., 6 figs.

  6. Namibia specific climate smart agricultural land use practices: Challenges and opportunities for enhancing ecosystem services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuhn, Nikolaus J.; Talamondjila Naanda, Martha; Bloemertz, Lena

    2015-04-01

    Agriculture is a backbone for many African economies, with an estimated 70% of Africans active in agricultural production. The sector often does not only directly contribute to, but sustains food security and poverty reduction efforts. Sustaining this productivity poses many challenges, particularly to small scale subsistence farmers (SSF) in dry land areas and semi-arid countries like Namibia. SSF in northern central Namibia mix crop and livestock production on degraded semi-arid lands and nutrient-poor sandy soils. They are fully dependent on agricultural production with limited alternative sources of income. Mostly, their agricultural harvests and outputs are low, not meeting their livelihood needs. At the same time, the land use is often not sustainable, leading to degradation. The Namibia case reveals that addressing underlying economic, social and environmental challenges requires a combination of farm level-soil management practices with a shift towards integrated landscape management. This forms the basis for SSF to adopt sustainable land management practices while building institutional foundations, like establishing SSF cooperatives. One way in which this has been tested is through the concept of incentive-based motivation, i.e. payment for ecosystem services (PES), in which some of the beneficiaries pay, for instance for farmers or land users, who provide the services. The farmers provide these services by substituting their unsustainable land and soil management and adopting new (climate smart agricultural) land use practices. Climate Smart Agricultural land use practices (CSA-LUP) are one way of providing ecosystem services, which could be fundamental to long-term sustainable soil and land management solutions in Africa. There are few PES cases which have been systematically studied from an institutional development structure perspective. This study presents lessons evolving from the notion that direct participation and involvement of local people

  7. Downscaling climate change scenarios in an urban land use change model.

    PubMed

    Solecki, William D; Oliveri, Charles

    2004-08-01

    The objective of this paper is to describe the process through which climate change scenarios were downscaled in an urban land use model and the results of this experimentation. The land use models (Urban Growth Model [UGM] and the Land Cover Deltatron Model [LCDM]) utilized in the project are part of the SLEUTH program which uses a probabilistic cellular automata protocol. The land use change scenario experiments were developed for the 31-county New York Metropolitan Region (NYMR) of the US Mid-Atlantic Region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios) were used to define the narrative scenario conditions of future land use change. The specific research objectives of the land use modeling work involving the SLEUTH program were threefold: (1) Define the projected conversion probabilities and the amount of rural-to-urban land use change for the NYMR as derived by the UGM and LCDM for the years 2020 and 2050, as defined by the pattern of growth for the years 1960-1990; (2) Down-scale the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios as a narrative that could be translated into alternative growth projections; and, (3) Create two alternative future growth scenarios: A2 scenario which will be associated with more rapid land conversion than found in initial projections, and a B2 scenario which will be associated with a slower level of land conversion. The results of the modeling experiments successfully illustrate the spectrum of possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The application of these results into the broader scale climate and health impact study is discussed, as is the general role of land use/land cover change models in climate change studies and associated environmental management strategies.

  8. Five challenges to reconcile agricultural land use and forest ecosystem services in Southeast Asia.

    PubMed

    Carrasco, L R; Papworth, S K; Reed, J; Symes, W S; Ickowitz, A; Clements, T; Peh, K S-H; Sunderland, T

    2016-10-01

    Southeast Asia possesses the highest rates of tropical deforestation globally and exceptional levels of species richness and endemism. Many countries in the region are also recognized for their food insecurity and poverty, making the reconciliation of agricultural production and forest conservation a particular priority. This reconciliation requires recognition of the trade-offs between competing land-use values and the subsequent incorporation of this information into policy making. To date, such reconciliation has been relatively unsuccessful across much of Southeast Asia. We propose an ecosystem services (ES) value-internalization framework that identifies the key challenges to such reconciliation. These challenges include lack of accessible ES valuation techniques; limited knowledge of the links between forests, food security, and human well-being; weak demand and political will for the integration of ES in economic activities and environmental regulation; a disconnect between decision makers and ES valuation; and lack of transparent discussion platforms where stakeholders can work toward consensus on negotiated land-use management decisions. Key research priorities to overcome these challenges are developing easy-to-use ES valuation techniques; quantifying links between forests and well-being that go beyond economic values; understanding factors that prevent the incorporation of ES into markets, regulations, and environmental certification schemes; understanding how to integrate ES valuation into policy making processes, and determining how to reduce corruption and power plays in land-use planning processes.

  9. Scale-dependence of land use effects on water quality of streams in agricultural catchments.

    PubMed

    Buck, Oliver; Niyogi, Dev K; Townsend, Colin R

    2004-07-01

    The influence of land use on water quality in streams is scale-dependent and varies in time and space. In this study, land cover patterns and stocking rates were used as measures of agricultural development in two pasture and one native grassland catchment in New Zealand and were related to water quality in streams of various orders. The amount of pasture per subcatchment correlated well to total nitrogen and nitrate in one catchment and turbidity and total phosphorous in the other catchment. Stocking rates were only correlated to total phosphorous in one pasture catchment but showed stronger correlations to ammonium, total phosphorous and total nitrogen in the other pasture catchment. Winter and spring floods were significant sources of nutrients and faecal coliforms from one of the pasture catchments into a wetland complex. Nutrient and faecal coliform concentrations were better predicted by pastural land cover in fourth-order than in second-order streams. This suggests that upstream land use is more influential in larger streams, while local land use and other factors may be more important in smaller streams. These temporal and spatial scale effects indicate that water-monitoring schemes need to be scale-sensitive.

  10. Five challenges to reconcile agricultural land use and forest ecosystem services in Southeast Asia.

    PubMed

    Carrasco, L R; Papworth, S K; Reed, J; Symes, W S; Ickowitz, A; Clements, T; Peh, K S-H; Sunderland, T

    2016-10-01

    Southeast Asia possesses the highest rates of tropical deforestation globally and exceptional levels of species richness and endemism. Many countries in the region are also recognized for their food insecurity and poverty, making the reconciliation of agricultural production and forest conservation a particular priority. This reconciliation requires recognition of the trade-offs between competing land-use values and the subsequent incorporation of this information into policy making. To date, such reconciliation has been relatively unsuccessful across much of Southeast Asia. We propose an ecosystem services (ES) value-internalization framework that identifies the key challenges to such reconciliation. These challenges include lack of accessible ES valuation techniques; limited knowledge of the links between forests, food security, and human well-being; weak demand and political will for the integration of ES in economic activities and environmental regulation; a disconnect between decision makers and ES valuation; and lack of transparent discussion platforms where stakeholders can work toward consensus on negotiated land-use management decisions. Key research priorities to overcome these challenges are developing easy-to-use ES valuation techniques; quantifying links between forests and well-being that go beyond economic values; understanding factors that prevent the incorporation of ES into markets, regulations, and environmental certification schemes; understanding how to integrate ES valuation into policy making processes, and determining how to reduce corruption and power plays in land-use planning processes. PMID:27341652

  11. Changes in Stream Water Quality Related to Land Use and Watershed Scale in the Catskill Mountains of New York State

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McHale, M.

    2005-12-01

    watersheds, although not all agricultural watersheds had high nutrient concentrations. Since agriculture in this region typically consists of small, family-operated dairy farms, their influence on water quality is small. Base cations increased from upper nodes to lower nodes as did pH and acid neutralizing capacity, but these increases were not related to land use. Neither changes in flow nor change in basin size was correlated with the change in water chemistry from upper nodes to lower nodes. These results underscore the difficulty in trying to generalize the effect of land use on stream water quality in areas where there are not large variations in land use or when land use does not profoundly affect the landscape. Analysis of individual storms that occurred in all of the watersheds may provide additional insight into watershed responses during high flow.

  12. Runoff production in a small agricultural catchment in Lao PDR : influence of slope, land-use and observation scale.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patin, J.; Ribolzi, O.; Mugler, C.; Valentin, C.; Mouche, E.

    2009-04-01

    We study the surface and sub-surface hydrology of a small agricultural catchment (60ha) located in the Luang Prabang province of Lao PDR. This catchment is representative of the rural mountainous south east Asia. It exhibits steep slopes (up to 100% and more) under a monsoon climate. After years of traditional slash and burn cultures, it is now under high land pressures due to population resettling and environment preservation policies. This evolution leads to rapid land-use changes such as shifting cultivation reduction or growing of teak forest instead of classical crops. This catchment is a benchmark site of the Managing Soil Erosion Consortium since 1998. The international consortium aims to understand the effects of agricultural changes on the catchment hydrology and soil erosion in south east Asia. The Huay Pano catchment is subdivided into small sub-catchments that are gauged and monitored. Differ- ent agricultural practices where tested along the years. At a smaller scale, plot of 1m2 are instrumented to follow runoff and detachment of soil under natural rainfall along the monsoon season. Our modeling work aims to develop a distributed hydrological model integrating experimental data at the different scales. One of the objective is to understand the impact of land-use, soil properties (slope, crust, etc) and rainfall (dry and wet seasons) on surface and subsurface flows. We present here modeling results of the runoff plot experiments (1m2 scale) performed from 2002 to 2007. The plots distribution among the catchment and over the years gives a good representativity of the different runoff responses. The role of crust, slope and land-use on runoff is examined. Finally we discuss how this plot scale will be integrated in a sub-catchment model, with a particular attention on the observed paradox: how to explain that runoff coefficients at the catchment scale are much slower than at the plot scale ?

  13. Land Use Change Driven by Gold Mining; Peruvian Amazon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swenson, J. J.; Carter, C. E.; domec, J.; Delgado, C. I.

    2011-12-01

    Many factors such as poverty, ineffective institutions and environmental regulations may prevent developing countries from managing how natural resources are extracted to meet a strong market demand. Extraction for some resources has reached such proportions that evidence is measurable from space. We present recent evidence of the global demand for a single commodity and the ecosystem destruction resulting from commodity extraction, recorded by satellites for one of the most biodiverse areas of the world. We find that since 2003, recent mining deforestation in Madre de Dios, Peru is increasing nonlinearly alongside a constant annual rate of increase in international gold price (~18%/yr). We detect that the new pattern of mining deforestation (1915 ha/year, 2006-2009) is outpacing that of nearby settlement deforestation. We show that gold price is linked with exponential increases in Peruvian national mercury imports over time (R2 = 0.93, p = 0.04, 2003- 2009). Given the past rates of increase we predict that mercury imports may more than double for 2011 (~500 t/year). Virtually all of Peru's mercury imports are used in artisanal gold mining. Much of the mining increase is unregulated/ artisanal in nature, lacking environmental impact analysis or miner education. As a result, large quantities of mercury are being released into the atmosphere, sediments and waterways. Other developing countries endowed with gold deposits are likely experiencing similar environmental destruction in response to recent record high gold prices. The increasing availability of satellite imagery ought to evoke further studies linking economic variables with land use and cover changes on the ground.

  14. Urban Dynamics: Analyzing Land Use Change in Urban Environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Acevedo, William; Richards, Lora R.; Buchanan, Janis T.; Wegener, Whitney R.

    2000-01-01

    In FY99, the Earth Resource Observation System (EROS) staff at Ames continued managing the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Urban Dynamics Research program, which has mapping and analysis activities at five USGS mapping centers. Historic land use reconstruction work continued while activities in geographic analysis and modeling were expanded. Retrospective geographic information system (GIS) development - the spatial reconstruction of a region's urban land-use history - focused on the Detroit River Corridor, California's Central Valley, and the city of Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

  15. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  16. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  17. Cascading effects of long-term land-use changes on plant traits and ecosystem functioning.

    PubMed

    Laliberté, Etienne; Tylianakis, Jason M

    2012-01-01

    There is much concern that the functioning of ecosystems will be affected by human-induced changes in biodiversity, of which land-use change is the most important driver. However, changes in biodiversity may be only one of many pathways through which land use alters ecosystem functioning, and its importance relative to other pathways remains unclear. In particular, although biodiversity-ecosystem function research has focused primarily on grasslands, the increases in agricultural inputs (e.g., fertilization, irrigation) and grazing pressure that drive change in grasslands worldwide have been largely ignored. Here we show that long-term (27-year) manipulations of soil resource availability and sheep grazing intensity caused marked, consistent shifts in grassland plant functional composition and diversity, with cascading (i.e., causal chains of) direct, indirect, and interactive effects on multiple ecosystem functions. Resource availability exerted dominant control over above-ground net primary production (ANPP), both directly and indirectly via shifts in plant functional composition. Importantly, the effects of plant functional diversity and grazing intensity on ANPP shifted from negative to positive as agricultural inputs increased, providing strong evidence that soil resource availability modulates the impacts of plant diversity and herbivory on primary production. These changes in turn altered litter decomposition and, ultimately, soil carbon sequestration, highlighting the relevance of ANPP as a key integrator of ecosystem functioning. Our study reveals how human alterations of bottom-up (resources) and top-down (herbivory) forces together interact to control the functioning of grazing systems, the most extensive land use on Earth.

  18. Comparative study of heavy metals concentration in topsoil of urban green space and agricultural land uses.

    PubMed

    Mirzaei, Rouhollah; Teymourzade, Safiye; Sakizadeh, Mohamad; Ghorbani, Hadi

    2015-12-01

    The main objective of this study was to determine the concentration of cadmium, chromium, copper, nickel, lead, and zinc in surface soils of two land uses including agricultural and urban green space in Semnan Province, Iran. For this purpose, the soil samples of 27 urban green space and 47 agricultural fields were collected and analyzed. The correlation coefficients, analysis of variance, principal component analysis, cluster analysis, and geoaccumulation index were utilized to compare the mean values in the two land uses and pinpoint the possible sources of contamination in the study area. The average contents of Cd, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, and Zn in green space soils were 0.1, 24.9, 78.7, 28.2, 22.1, and 82.1 mg/kg, respectively, while the mean concentrations of Cd, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, and Zn in agricultural soils were 0.3, 24.3, 83.7, 33.3, 18.1, and 80.4 mg/kg, respectively. The mean concentrations of lead, copper, and zinc were higher in urban green space in comparison with those of agricultural fields, while it was vice versa for chromium, cadmium, and nickel. In general, significant, but weak, correlations were observed between Zn with Pb (r = 0.53) and Cu (r = 0.61) and Ni with Cr (r = 0.55) and Cu(r = 0.51). The main sources of contamination turned out to be both natural and anthropogenic as the results of correlation coefficients, principal component analysis, and cluster analysis showed. That is to say, chromium and nickel had emanated from natural while the sources of cadmium, lead, and zinc could be attributed to anthropogenic activities. For the case of copper, both natural and anthropogenic activities were influential; however, the role of human activities was more effective. The results of contamination assessment showed that heavy metal contamination in agricultural land use was higher than green space indicating the role of human activities in this respect. PMID:26559555

  19. Comparative study of heavy metals concentration in topsoil of urban green space and agricultural land uses.

    PubMed

    Mirzaei, Rouhollah; Teymourzade, Safiye; Sakizadeh, Mohamad; Ghorbani, Hadi

    2015-12-01

    The main objective of this study was to determine the concentration of cadmium, chromium, copper, nickel, lead, and zinc in surface soils of two land uses including agricultural and urban green space in Semnan Province, Iran. For this purpose, the soil samples of 27 urban green space and 47 agricultural fields were collected and analyzed. The correlation coefficients, analysis of variance, principal component analysis, cluster analysis, and geoaccumulation index were utilized to compare the mean values in the two land uses and pinpoint the possible sources of contamination in the study area. The average contents of Cd, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, and Zn in green space soils were 0.1, 24.9, 78.7, 28.2, 22.1, and 82.1 mg/kg, respectively, while the mean concentrations of Cd, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, and Zn in agricultural soils were 0.3, 24.3, 83.7, 33.3, 18.1, and 80.4 mg/kg, respectively. The mean concentrations of lead, copper, and zinc were higher in urban green space in comparison with those of agricultural fields, while it was vice versa for chromium, cadmium, and nickel. In general, significant, but weak, correlations were observed between Zn with Pb (r = 0.53) and Cu (r = 0.61) and Ni with Cr (r = 0.55) and Cu(r = 0.51). The main sources of contamination turned out to be both natural and anthropogenic as the results of correlation coefficients, principal component analysis, and cluster analysis showed. That is to say, chromium and nickel had emanated from natural while the sources of cadmium, lead, and zinc could be attributed to anthropogenic activities. For the case of copper, both natural and anthropogenic activities were influential; however, the role of human activities was more effective. The results of contamination assessment showed that heavy metal contamination in agricultural land use was higher than green space indicating the role of human activities in this respect.

  20. Fuel characteristics and emissions from biomass burning and land-use change in Nigeria.

    PubMed

    Isichei, A O; Muoghalu, J I; Akeredolu, F A; Afolabi, O A

    1995-01-01

    Nigeria is one of the 13 low-latitude countries that have significant biomass burning activities. Biomass burning occurs in moist savanna, dry forests, and forest plantations. Fires in the forest zone are associated with slash-and-burn agriculture; the areal extent of burning is estimated to be 80% of the natural savanna. In forest plantations, close to 100% of litter is burned. Current estimates of emissions from land-use change are based on a 1976 national study and extrapolations from it. The following non-carbon dioxide (CO2) trace gas emissions were calculated from savanna burning: methane (CH4), 145 gigagrams (Gg); carbon monoxide (CO), 3831 Gg; nitrous oxide (N2O), 2 Gg; and nitrogen oxides (NOx), 49 Gg. Deforestation rates in forests and woodlands are 300 × 10(3) ha (kilohectare, or kha) and 200 × kha per year, respectively. Trace gas emissions from deforestation were estimated to be 300 Gg CH4, 2.4 Gg N2O, and 24 Gg NOx. CO2 emissions from burning, decay of biomass, and long-term emissions from soil totaled 125 561 Gg. These estimates should be viewed as preliminary, because greenhouse gas emission inventories from burning, deforestation, and land-use change require two components: fuel load and emission factors. Fuel load is dependent on the areal extent of various land uses, and the biomass stocking and some of these data in Nigeria are highly uncertain. PMID:24197951

  1. Agricultural land-use mapping using very high resolution satellite images in Canary Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Labrador Garcia, Mauricio; Arbelo, Manuel; Evora Brondo, Juan Antonio; Hernandez-Leal, Pedro A.; Alonso-Benito, Alfonso

    Crop maps are a basic tool for rural planning and a way to asses the impact of politics and infrastructures in the rural environment. Thus, they must be accurate and updated. Because of the small size of the land fields in Canary Islands, until now the crop maps have been made by means of an intense and expensive field work. The tiny crop terraces do not allow the use of traditional medium-size resolution satellite images. The launch of several satellites with sub-meter spatial resolutions in the last years provides an opportunity to update land use maps in these fragmented areas. SATELMAC is a project financed by the PCT-MAC 2007-2013 (FEDER funds). One of the main objectives of this project is to develop a methodology that allows the use of very high resolution satellite images to automate as much as possible the updating of agricultural land use maps. The study was carried out in 3 different areas of the two main islands of the Canarian Archipelago, Tenerife and Gran Canaria. The total area is about 550 km2 , which includes both urban and rural areas. Multitemporal images from Geo-Eye 1 were acquired during a whole agricultural season to extract information about annual and perennial crops. The work includes a detailed geographic correction of the images and dealing with many adverse factors like cloud shadows, variability of atmospheric conditions and the heterogeneity of the land uses within the study area. Different classification methods, including traditional pixel-based methods and object-oriented approach, were compared in order to obtain the best accuracy. An intensive field work was carried out to obtain the ground truth, which is the base for the classification procedures and the validation of the results. The final results will be integrated into a cadastral vector layer.

  2. Tracking changes in land-use and drainage status of organic soils using heterogeneous spatial datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Untenecker, Johanna; Tiemeyer, Bärbel; Freibauer, Annette; Laggner, Andreas; Luterbacher, Jürg

    2016-04-01

    Tracking land-use since 1990 is one of the major challenges in greenhouse gas (GHG) reporting under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol, as the data availability, especially for the base year 1990, is often poor. Even if data is available, spatial and thematic resolution will often change over time or differ even within one country. Such inconsistencies will cause a strong overestimation of land use change (LUC) if not adequately accounted for. Using different spatial datasets, we present a method that allows tracking changes in land-use and drainage status of organic soils. The drainage status is relevant for the Kyoto activities grazing land management (GM) and wetland drainage and rewetting (WDR) as the GHG emissions of organic soils strongly depend on the groundwater level. We used datasets that are already used for the German national inventory report (Digital Landscape Model of official cadastre data) and high resolution spatial datasets (CIR aerial photography) derived for biodiversity monitoring of six federal states in North and East Germany. This data is combined with the legal protection status such as nature conservation areas. To create a consistent time series, we developed a translation key which allows quantifying gross and net LUC in a spatially explicit manner. The developed method fills the lack of data for 1990 and allows GHG accounting on higher Tier levels as soon as detailed emission factors are ready to be implemented. LUC can be stratified by the protection status. Areas without a protection status show a trend towards both intensification of land-use and drier conditions. Highly protected areas show an opposite trend while a moderate protection level (e.g. by nature parks) did only have very weak effects. Furthermore, there are major differences between federal states. In Schleswig-Holstein, known as a federal state of high agricultural production, organic soils tend to become drier and

  3. Confirmation of ACRU model results for applications in land use and climate change studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warburton, M. L.; Schulze, R. E.; Jewitt, G. P. W.

    2010-12-01

    The hydrological responses of a catchment are sensitive to, and strongly coupled to, land use and climate, and changes thereof. The hydrological responses to the impacts of changing land use and climate will be the result of complex interactions, where the change in one may moderate or exacerbate the effects of the other. Further difficulties in assessing these interactions are that dominant drivers of the hydrological system may vary at different spatial and temporal scales. To assess these interactions, a process-based hydrological model, sensitive to land use and climate, and changes thereof, needs to be used. For this purpose the daily time step ACRU model was selected. However, to be able to use a hydrological model such as ACRU with confidence its representation of reality must be confirmed by comparing simulated output against observations across a range of climatic conditions. Comparison of simulated against observed streamflow was undertaken in three climatically diverse South African catchments, ranging from the semi-arid, sub-tropical Luvuvhu catchment, to the winter rainfall Upper Breede catchment and the sub-humid Mgeni catchment. Not only do the climates of the catchments differ, but their primary land uses also vary. In the upper areas of the Mgeni catchment commercial plantation forestry is dominant, while in the middle reaches there are significant areas of commercial plantation sugarcane and urban areas, while the lower reaches are dominated by urban areas. The Luvuvhu catchment has a large proportion of subsistence agriculture and informal residential areas. In the Upper Breede catchment in the Western Cape, commercial orchards and vineyards are the primary land uses. Overall the ACRU model was able to represent the high, low and total flows, with satisfactory Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency indexes obtained for the selected catchments. The study concluded that the ACRU model can be used with confidence to simulate the streamflows of the three selected

  4. Confirmation of ACRU model results for applications in land use and climate change studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warburton, M. L.; Schulze, R. E.; Jewitt, G. P. W.

    2010-07-01

    The hydrological responses of a catchment are sensitive to, and strongly coupled to, land use and climate, and changes thereof. The hydrological responses to the impacts of changing land use and climate will be the result of complex interactions, where the change in one may moderate or exacerbate the effects of the other. A further difficulty in assessing these interactions will be that dominant drivers of the hydrological system may vary at different spatial and temporal scales. To assess these interactions, a process-based hydrological model, sensitive to land use and climate, and changes thereof needs to be used. For this purpose the daily time step ACRU model was selected. However, to be able to use a hydrological model such as ACRU with confidence its representation of reality must be confirmed by comparing simulated output against observations across a range of climatic conditions. Comparison of simulated against observed streamflow was undertaken in three climatically diverse South African catchments, ranging from the semi-arid sub-tropical Luvuvhu catchment, to the winter rainfall Upper Breede catchment and the sub-humid Mgeni catchment. Not only do the climates of the catchments differ, but their primary land uses also vary. In the upper areas of the Mgeni catchment commercial plantation forestry is dominant, while in the middle reaches there are significant areas of commercial plantation sugarcane and urban areas, while the lower reaches are dominated by urban areas. The Luvuvhu catchment has a large proportion of subsistence agriculture and informal residential areas. In the Upper Breede catchment in the Western Cape, commercial orchards and vineyards are the primary land uses. Overall the ACRU model was able to represent the high, low and total flows, with satisfactory Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency indexes obtained for the selected catchments. The study concluded that the ACRU model could be used with confidence to simulate the streamflows of the three

  5. Impact of past and possible future land use changes on the hydrological behaviour of the Northern German lowland `Hunte' river

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bormann, H.; Elfert, S.

    2009-04-01

    Changing hydrological behaviour of catchments can be driven by several different influencing factors: e.g., climate change, water management and land use change. While changes in climate and water management directly affect the water cycle be changes in regional forcing (e.g., precipitation, radiation) and local management of surface and subsurface waters, the impact of land use changes on catchment hydrology is much more complex to assess as it results from regionally distributed local changes. Therefore, spatially distributed and process based hydrological catchment models are required for assessing the impacts of spatially distributed land use changes. The Hunte catchment in Lower Saxony is part of an intensively agriculturally used landscape in Northwest Germany. Pasture and cropland are dominating land uses, while surface sealing increases due to urban sprawl. As the catchment is dominated by agricultural landuse mostly, it can be expected that European and national policy as well as the agroeconomic development can strongly effect the land use distribution in future. Therefore, in this study, the effect of historical and projected land use changes on the catchment hydrological behaviour is assessed the process based catchment model WASIM-ETH (Schulla). WASIM-ETH has been applied to observed land use data sets (CORINE data) and projected land use scenarios (based on Ewert et al., 2005; Rounsevell et al., 2005) for the mesoscale catchment of the Hunte river in order to quantify the sensitivity with respect to land use change. The results of the study show that historical land use changes have almost no impact on the catchment hydrological processes in Northwest Germany. Simulated water balances and runoff hydrographs are almost identical, driving the model with different input data sets based on the CORINE data set. Differences are small compared to trends identified in the discharge data of the Hunte and Weser rivers. However, in relation to the ability of

  6. Importance of land use update during the calibration period and simulation of water balance response to land use change in the upper Rio das Mortes Catchment (Cerrado Biome, Central-Western Brazil)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamparter, Gabriele; Kovacs, Kristof; Nobrega, Rodolfo; Gerold, Gerhard

    2015-04-01

    Changes in the hydrological balance and following degradation of the water ecosystem services due to large scale land use changes are reported from agricultural frontiers all over the world. Traditionally, hydrological models including vegetation and land use as a part of the hydrological cycle use a fixed distribution of land use for the calibration period. We believe that a meaningful calibration - especially when investigating the effects of land use change on hydrology - demands the inclusion of land use change during the calibration period into the calibration procedure. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model is a process-based, semi-distributed model calculating the different components of the water balance. The model bases on the definition of hydrological response units (HRUs) which are based on soil, vegetation and slope distribution. It specifically emphasises the role of land use and land management on the water balance. The Central-Western region of Brazil is one of the leading agricultural frontiers, which experienced rapid and radical deforestation and agricultural intensification in the last 40 years (from natural Cerrado savannah to cattle grazing to intensive corn and soya cropland). The land use history of the upper Rio das Mortes catchment (with 17500 km²) is reasonably well documented since the 1970th. At the same time there are almost continuous climate and runoff data available for the period between 1988 and 2011. Therefore, the work presented here shows the model calibration and validation of the SWAT model with the land use update function for three different periods (1988 to 1998, 1998 to 2007 and 2007 to 2011) in comparison with the same calibration periods using a steady state land use distribution. The use of the land use update function allows a clearer identification which changes in the discharge are due to climatic variability and which are due to changes in the vegetation cover. With land use update included into the

  7. The Biogeophysical Climatic Impacts of Anthropogenic Land Use Change during the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Clare; Singarayer, Joy; Valdes, Paul; Kaplan, Jed; Branch, Nicholas

    2016-04-01

    The first agricultural societies were established around 10ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with HadCM3 were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP) to the early industrial era (1850 CE). Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation simulated by TRIFFID but no land-use changes, and (ii) where the anthropogenic land use model, KK10 (Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011*) has been used to set the HadCM3 crop regions. Snapshot simulations have been run at 1,000 year intervals to examine when the first signature of anthropogenic climate change can be detected both regionally, in the areas of land use change, and globally. Results indicate that in regions of early land disturbance such as Europe and S.E. Asia detectable temperature changes, outside the normal range of variability, are encountered in the model as early as 7ka BP in the June/July/August (JJA) season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2-3ka BP. Areas outside the regions of land disturbance are also affected, with virtually the whole globe experiencing significant temperature changes (predominantly cooling) by the early industrial period. Large-scale precipitation features such as the Indian monsoon, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and the North Atlantic storm track are also impacted by local land use and remote teleconnections. We investigated how advection by surface winds, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies

  8. Applying IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) land-use projections in a regional assessment of land-use change in the conterminous United States.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sherba, J.; Sleeter, B. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) include global land-use change projections for four global emissions scenarios. These projections are potentially useful for driving regional-scale models needed for informing land-use and management interactions. Here, we applied global gridded RCP land-use projections within a regional-scale state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) projecting land-use change in the conterminous United States. First, we cross-walked RCP land-use transition classes to land-use classes more relevant for modeling at the regional scale. Coarse grid RCP land-use transition values were then downscaled to EPA Level III ecoregion boundaries using historical land-use transition data from the USGS Land Cover Trends (LCT) dataset. Downscaled transitions were aggregated to the ecoregion level. Ecoregions were chosen because they represent areas with consistent land-use patterns that have proven useful for studying land-use and management interactions. Ecoregion-level RCP projections were applied in a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) projecting land-use change between 2005 and 2100 at the 1-km scale. Resulting RCP-based STSM projections were compared to STSM projections created using scenario projections from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and the USGS LCT dataset. While most land-use trajectories appear plausible, some transitions such as forest harvest are unreasonable in the context of historical land-use patterns and the socio-economic drivers of change outlined for each scenario. This effort provides a method for using the RCP land-use projections in a wide range of regional scale models. However, further investigation is needed into the performance of RCP land-use projections at the regional scale.

  9. Large-scale changes in community composition: determining land use and climate change signals.

    PubMed

    Kampichler, Christian; van Turnhout, Chris A M; Devictor, Vincent; van der Jeugd, Henk P

    2012-01-01

    Human land use and climate change are regarded as the main driving forces of present-day and future species extinction. They may potentially lead to a profound reorganisation of the composition and structure of natural communities throughout the world. However, studies that explicitly investigate both forms of impact--land use and climate change--are uncommon. Here, we quantify community change of Dutch breeding bird communities over the past 25 years using time lag analysis. We evaluate the chronological sequence of the community temperature index (CTI) which reflects community response to temperature increase (increasing CTI indicates an increase in relative abundance of more southerly species), and the temporal trend of the community specialisation index (CSI) which reflects community response to land use change (declining CSI indicates an increase of generalist species). We show that the breeding bird fauna underwent distinct directional change accompanied by significant changes both in CTI and CSI which suggests a causal connection between climate and land use change and bird community change. The assemblages of particular breeding habitats neither changed at the same speed and nor were they equally affected by climate versus land use changes. In the rapidly changing farmland community, CTI and CSI both declined slightly. In contrast, CTI increased in the more slowly changing forest and heath communities, while CSI remained stable. Coastal assemblages experienced both an increase in CTI and a decline in CSI. Wetland birds experienced the fastest community change of all breeding habitat assemblages but neither CTI nor CSI showed a significant trend. Overall, our results suggest that the interaction between climate and land use changes differs between habitats, and that comparing trends in CSI and CTI may be useful in tracking the impact of each determinant.

  10. Integrated Assessment and the Relation Between Land-Use Change and Climate Change

    DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

    Dale, V. H.

    1994-10-07

    Integrated assessment is an approach that is useful in evaluating the consequences of global climate change. Understanding the consequences requires knowledge of the relationship between land-use change and climate change. Methodologies for assessing the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations are considered with reference to a particular case study area: south and southeast Asia. The use of models to evaluate the consequences of climate change on forests must also consider an assessment approach. Each of these points is discussed in the following four sections.

  11. Integrated assessment and the relation between land-use change and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, V.H.

    1994-10-07

    Integrated assessment is an approach that is useful in evaluating the consequences of global climate change. Understanding the consequences requires knowledge of the relationship between land-use change and climate change. Methodologies for assessing the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations are considered with reference to a particular case study area: south and southeast Asia. The use of models to evaluate the consequences of climate change on forests must also consider an assessment approach. Each of these points is discussed in the following four sections.

  12. The impact of agricultural land use on stream chemistry in the Middle Hills of the Himalayas, Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, Robert; Jenkins, Alan

    1996-11-01

    The chemistry of streams draining agricultural and forested catchments in the Middle Hills of Nepal is described. Differences between mean streamwater chemistry are attributable to the effects of the terraced agriculture and land management practices. The agricultural catchments were found to exhibit higher mean concentrations of base cations (Na, Mg, K), bicarbonate, acid anions (SO 4, Cl), metals (Al, Fe) and nutrients (NO 3, PO 4). Increased base cations apparently result from tillage practices exposing fresh soil material to weathering. Increased acid anions result from inputs of inorganic fertiliser, notably ammonium sulphate, and from an apparent increase in evapotranspiration from the flooded terraces in the agricultural catchments. Increased metal concentrations may be promoted by increased weathering and erosion rates, and this is further supported by observations of dramatically higher turbidity in the streamwater draining the agricultural catchments. Higher levels of nutrients are the direct result of fertiliser input but concentrations are generally low from all catchments as a result of denitrification, indicating that eutrophication downstream is not a likely consequence of land use change. The major dynamics of water chemistry occur during the monsoon, which is also the main season for agricultural production. Mean wet season concentrations of base cations tend to be lower than in the dry season at all catchments as higher flow dilutes the relatively constant weathering input. Ammonium concentrations are higher from the agricultural catchments in the wet season as a result of direct washout of fertiliser. Detailed monitoring through storm periods at one agricultural catchment indicates that the chemistry responds very rapidly to changing flow, with cations decreasing and acid anions increasing followed by equally rapid recovery as flow recedes. Bicarbonate concentrations also decline markedly but are still sufficiently high to maintain pH near

  13. The nitrate export in subtropical mountainous catchment: implication for land use change impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, J.-C.; Lee, T.-Y.; Kao, S.-J.; Hsu, S.-C.; Lin, H.-J.; Peng, T.-R.

    2010-12-01

    Agricultural activity is the dominant factor affecting water quality and nitrate export, which causes eutrophication and episodic acidification in downstream water bodies (e.g., reservoirs, lakes, and coastal zones). However, in subtropical mountainous areas such environmental impact due to the land use change was rarely documented. In this study, we investigated 16 sub-catchments during 2007 and 2008 in the Chi-Chia-Wan catchment where is the sole habitat for the endemic species, Formosan landlocked salmon (Oncorhynchus masou formosanus). The results revealed that the NO3-N concentration in pristine catchments varied from 0.144 to 0.151 mg/L without significant seasonal variation. This concentration was comparable with other forestry catchments around the world. However, the annual nitrate export was around 375.3-677.1 kg/km2/yr, much higher than other catchments due to the greater amount of rainfall. This is an important baseline for comparisons with other climate areas. As for the impact of agricultural activities, the catchments with some human disturbance, ~5.2% of the catchment area, might yield 5947.2 kg N/km2/yr - over 10-times higher than that of pristine catchment. Such high export caused by such a low level of disturbance might indicate that subtropical mountainous area is highly sensitive to agricultural activities. As for the land-use effect on nitrate yield, the forestry land might yield 488.5 ± 325.1 kg/km2/yr and the vegetable farm could yield 298 465.4 ± 3347.2 kg/km2/yr - 1000-times greater than the forestry. The estimated nitrate yields for land use classes were a crucial basis and useful for the land manager to assess the possible impacts (e.g., non-point source pollution evaluation and the recovery of land expropriation).

  14. Biofuels, causes of land-use change, and the role of fire in greenhouse gas emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Kline, Keith L; Dale, Virginia H

    2008-07-01

    IN THEIR REPORTS IN THE 29 FEBRUARY ISSUE ('LAND CLEARING AND THE BIOFUEL CARBON debt,' J. Fargione et al., p. 1235, and 'Use of U.S. croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change,' T. Searchinger et al., p. 1238), the authors do not provide adequate support for their claim that biofuels cause high emissions due to land-use change. The conclusions of both papers depend on the misleading premise that biofuel production causes forests and grasslands to be converted to agriculture. However, field research, including a meta-analysis of 152 case studies, consistently finds that land-use change and associated carbon emissions are driven by interactions among cultural, technological, biophysical, political, economic, and demographic forces within a spatial and temporal context rather than by a single crop market. Searchinger et al. assert that soybean prices accelerate clearing of rainforest based on a single citation for a study not designed to identify the causal factors of land clearing. The study analyzed satellite imagery from a single state in Brazil over a 4-year period and focused on land classification after deforestation. Satellite imagery can measure what changed but does little to tell us why. Similarly, Fargione et al. do not rely on primary empirical studies of causes of land-use change. Furthermore, neither fire nor soil carbon sequestration was properly considered in the Reports. Fire's escalating contribution to global climate change is largely a result of burning in tropical savannas and forests. Searchinger et al. postulate that 10.8 million hectares could be needed for future biofuel, a fraction of the 250 to 400 million hectares burned each year between 2000 and 2005. By offering enhanced employment and incomes, biofuels can help establish economic stability and thus reduce the recurring use of fire on previously cleared land as well as pressures to clear more land. Neither Searchinger et al. nor Fargione et

  15. The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, M. C.; Singarayer, J. S.; Valdes, P. J.; Kaplan, J. O.; Branch, N. P.

    2015-10-01

    The first agricultural societies were established around 10 ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5 ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with HadCM3 were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP) to the early industrial era (1850 CE). Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation simulated by TRIFFID but no land-use changes, and (ii) where the anthropogenic land use model, KK10 (Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011) has been used to set the HadCM3 crop regions. Snapshot simulations have been run at 1000 year intervals to examine when the first signature of anthropogenic climate change can be detected both regionally, in the areas of land use change, and globally. Results indicate that in regions of early land disturbance such as Europe and S.E. Asia detectable temperature changes, outside the normal range of variability, are encountered in the model as early as 7 ka BP in the June/July/August (JJA) season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2-3 ka BP. Areas outside the regions of land disturbance are also affected, with virtually the whole globe experiencing significant temperature changes (predominantly cooling) by the early industrial period. Large-scale precipitation features such as the Indian monsoon, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and the North Atlantic storm track are also impacted by local land use and remote teleconnections. We investigated how advection by surface winds, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies

  16. Dynamics of land use and land cover change (LULCC) using geospatial techniques: a case study of Islamabad Pakistan.

    PubMed

    Hassan, Zahra; Shabbir, Rabia; Ahmad, Sheikh Saeed; Malik, Amir Haider; Aziz, Neelam; Butt, Amna; Erum, Summra

    2016-01-01

    One of the detailed and useful ways to develop land use classification maps is use of geospatial techniques such as remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS). It vastly improves the selection of areas designated as agricultural, industrial and/or urban sector of a region. In Islamabad city and its surroundings, change in land use has been observed and new developments (agriculture, commercial, industrial and urban) are emerging every day. Thus, the rationale of this study was to evaluate land use/cover changes in Islamabad from 1992 to 2012. Quantification of spatial and temporal dynamics of land use/cover changes was accomplished by using two satellite images, and classifying them via supervised classification algorithm and finally applying post-classification change detection technique in GIS. The increase was observed in agricultural area, built-up area and water body from 1992 to 2012. On the other hand forest and barren area followed a declining trend. The driving force behind this change was economic development, climate change and population growth. Rapid urbanization and deforestation resulted in a wide range of environmental impacts, including degraded habitat quality. PMID:27390652

  17. Dynamics of land use and land cover change (LULCC) using geospatial techniques: a case study of Islamabad Pakistan.

    PubMed

    Hassan, Zahra; Shabbir, Rabia; Ahmad, Sheikh Saeed; Malik, Amir Haider; Aziz, Neelam; Butt, Amna; Erum, Summra

    2016-01-01

    One of the detailed and useful ways to develop land use classification maps is use of geospatial techniques such as remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS). It vastly improves the selection of areas designated as agricultural, industrial and/or urban sector of a region. In Islamabad city and its surroundings, change in land use has been observed and new developments (agriculture, commercial, industrial and urban) are emerging every day. Thus, the rationale of this study was to evaluate land use/cover changes in Islamabad from 1992 to 2012. Quantification of spatial and temporal dynamics of land use/cover changes was accomplished by using two satellite images, and classifying them via supervised classification algorithm and finally applying post-classification change detection technique in GIS. The increase was observed in agricultural area, built-up area and water body from 1992 to 2012. On the other hand forest and barren area followed a declining trend. The driving force behind this change was economic development, climate change and population growth. Rapid urbanization and deforestation resulted in a wide range of environmental impacts, including degraded habitat quality.

  18. Carbon cycling under 300 years of land use change: importance of the secondary vegetation sink

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shevliakova, Elena; Pacala, Stephen W.; Malyshev, Sergey; Hurtt, George C.; Milly, P.C.D.; Caspersen, John P.; Sentman, Lori T.; Fisk, Justin P.; Wirth, Christian; Crevoisier, Cyril

    2009-01-01

    We have developed a dynamic land model (LM3V) able to simulate ecosystem dynamics and exchanges of water, energy, and CO2 between land and atmosphere. LM3V is specifically designed to address the consequences of land use and land management changes including cropland and pasture dynamics, shifting cultivation, logging, fire, and resulting patterns of secondary regrowth. Here we analyze the behavior of LM3V, forced with the output from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) atmospheric model AM2, observed precipitation data, and four historic scenarios of land use change for 1700-2000. Our analysis suggests a net terrestrial carbon source due to land use activities from 1.1 to 1.3 GtC/a during the 1990s, where the range is due to the difference in the historic cropland distribution. This magnitude is substantially smaller than previous estimates from other models, largely due to our estimates of a secondary vegetation sink of 0.35 to 0.6 GtC/a in the 1990s and decelerating agricultural land clearing since the 1960s. For the 1990s, our estimates for the pastures' carbon flux vary from a source of 0.37 to a sink of 0.15 GtC/a, and for the croplands our model shows a carbon source of 0.6 to 0.9 GtC/a. Our process-based model suggests a smaller net deforestation source than earlier bookkeeping models because it accounts for decelerated net conversion of primary forest to agriculture and for stronger secondary vegetation regrowth in tropical regions. The overall uncertainty is likely to be higher than the range reported here because of uncertainty in the biomass recovery under changing ambient conditions, including atmospheric CO2 concentration, nutrients availability, and climate. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  19. Land use change impacts on water quality in three lake winnipeg watersheds.

    PubMed

    Yang, Qi; Leon, Luis F; Booty, William G; Wong, Isaac W; McCrimmon, Craig; Fong, Phil; Michiels, Patsy; Vanrobaeys, Jason; Benoy, Glenn

    2014-09-01

    Lake Winnipeg eutrophication results from excess nutrient loading due to agricultural activities across the watershed. Estimating nonpoint-source pollution and the mitigation effects of beneficial management practices (BMPs) is an important step in protecting the water quality of streams and receiving waters. The use of computer models to systematically compare different landscapes and agricultural systems across the Red-Assiniboine basin has not been attempted at watersheds of this size in Manitoba. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool was applied and calibrated for three pilot watersheds of the Lake Winnipeg basin. Monthly flow calibration yielded overall satisfactory Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), with values above 0.7 for all simulations. Total phosphorus (TP) calibration NSE ranged from 0.64 to 0.76, total N (TN) ranged from 0.22 to 0.75, and total suspended solids (TSS) ranged from 0.29 to 0.68. Based on the assessment of the TP exceedance levels from 1993 to 2007, annual loads were above proposed objectives for the three watersheds more than half of the time. Four BMP scenarios based on land use changes were studied in the watersheds: annual cropland to hay land (ACHL), wetland restoration (WR), marginal annual cropland conversion to hay land (MACHL), and wetland restoration on marginal cropland (WRMAC). Of these land use change scenarios, ACHL had the greatest impact: TSS loads were reduced by 33 to 65%, TN by 58 to 82%, and TP by 38 to 72% over the simulation period. By analyzing unit area and percentage of load reduction, the results indicate that the WR and WRMAC scenarios had a significant impact on water quality in high loading zones in the three watersheds. Such reductions of sediment, N, and P are possible through land use change scenarios, suggesting that land conservation should be a key component of any Lake Winnipeg restoration strategy.

  20. Effects of watershed-scale land use change on stream nitrate concentrations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schilling, K.E.; Spooner, J.

    2006-01-01

    The Walnut Creek Watershed Monitoring Project was conducted from 1995 through 2005 to evaluate the response of stream nitrate concentrations to changing land use patterns in paired 5000-ha Iowa watersheds. A large portion of the Walnut Creek watershed is being converted from row crop agriculture to native prairie and savanna by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service at the Neal Smith National Wildlife Refuge (NSNWR). Before restoration, land use in both Walnut Creek (treatment) and Squaw Creek (control) watersheds consisted of 70% row crops. Between 1990 and 2005, row crop area decreased 25.4% in Walnut Creek due to prairie restoration but increased 9.2% in Squaw Creek due to Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grassland conversion back to row crop. Nitrate concentrations ranged between <0.5 to 14 mg L-1 at the Walnut Creek outlet and 2.1 to 15 mg L-1 at the downstream Squaw Creek outlet. Nitrate concentrations decreased 1.2 mg L-1 over 10 yr in the Walnut Creek watershed but increased 1.9 mg L-1 over 10 yr in Squaw Creek. Changes in nitrate were easier to detect and more pronounced in monitored subbasins, decreasing 1.2 to 3.4 mg L-1 in three Walnut Creek subbasins, but increasing up to 8.0 and 11.6 mg L-1 in 10 yr in two Squaw Creek subbasins. Converting row crop lands to grass reduced stream nitrate levels over time in Walnut Creek, but stream nitrate rapidly increased in Squaw Creek when CRP grasslands were converted back to row crop. Study results highlight the close association of stream nitrate to land use change and emphasize that grasslands or other perennial vegetation placed in agricultural settings should be part of a long-term solution to water quality problems. ?? ASA, CSSA, SSSA.

  1. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Breuer, L.; Huisman, J. A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B. F. W.; Frede, H.-G.; Gräff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A. J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Lindström, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N. R.

    2009-02-01

    This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

  2. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Breuer, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

  3. Structure, composition and metagenomic profile of soil microbiomes associated to agricultural land use and tillage systems in Argentine Pampas.

    PubMed

    Carbonetto, Belén; Rascovan, Nicolás; Álvarez, Roberto; Mentaberry, Alejandro; Vázquez, Martin P

    2014-01-01

    Agriculture is facing a major challenge nowadays: to increase crop production for food and energy while preserving ecosystem functioning and soil quality. Argentine Pampas is one of the main world producers of crops and one of the main adopters of conservation agriculture. Changes in soil chemical and physical properties of Pampas soils due to different tillage systems have been deeply studied. Still, not much evidence has been reported on the effects of agricultural practices on Pampas soil microbiomes. The aim of our study was to investigate the effects of agricultural land use on community structure, composition and metabolic profiles on soil microbiomes of Argentine Pampas. We also compared the effects associated to conventional practices with the effects of no-tillage systems. Our results confirmed the impact on microbiome structure and composition due to agricultural practices. The phyla Verrucomicrobia, Plactomycetes, Actinobacteria, and Chloroflexi were more abundant in non cultivated soils while Gemmatimonadetes, Nitrospirae and WS3 were more abundant in cultivated soils. Effects on metabolic metagenomic profiles were also observed. The relative abundance of genes assigned to transcription, protein modification, nucleotide transport and metabolism, wall and membrane biogenesis and intracellular trafficking and secretion were higher in cultivated fertilized soils than in non cultivated soils. We also observed significant differences in microbiome structure and taxonomic composition between soils under conventional and no-tillage systems. Overall, our results suggest that agronomical land use and the type of tillage system have induced microbiomes to shift their life-history strategies. Microbiomes of cultivated fertilized soils (i.e. higher nutrient amendment) presented tendencies to copiotrophy while microbiomes of non cultivated homogenous soils appeared to have a more oligotrophic life-style. Additionally, we propose that conventional tillage systems may

  4. Structure, composition and metagenomic profile of soil microbiomes associated to agricultural land use and tillage systems in Argentine Pampas.

    PubMed

    Carbonetto, Belén; Rascovan, Nicolás; Álvarez, Roberto; Mentaberry, Alejandro; Vázquez, Martin P

    2014-01-01

    Agriculture is facing a major challenge nowadays: to increase crop production for food and energy while preserving ecosystem functioning and soil quality. Argentine Pampas is one of the main world producers of crops and one of the main adopters of conservation agriculture. Changes in soil chemical and physical properties of Pampas soils due to different tillage systems have been deeply studied. Still, not much evidence has been reported on the effects of agricultural practices on Pampas soil microbiomes. The aim of our study was to investigate the effects of agricultural land use on community structure, composition and metabolic profiles on soil microbiomes of Argentine Pampas. We also compared the effects associated to conventional practices with the effects of no-tillage systems. Our results confirmed the impact on microbiome structure and composition due to agricultural practices. The phyla Verrucomicrobia, Plactomycetes, Actinobacteria, and Chloroflexi were more abundant in non cultivated soils while Gemmatimonadetes, Nitrospirae and WS3 were more abundant in cultivated soils. Effects on metabolic metagenomic profiles were also observed. The relative abundance of genes assigned to transcription, protein modification, nucleotide transport and metabolism, wall and membrane biogenesis and intracellular trafficking and secretion were higher in cultivated fertilized soils than in non cultivated soils. We also observed significant differences in microbiome structure and taxonomic composition between soils under conventional and no-tillage systems. Overall, our results suggest that agronomical land use and the type of tillage system have induced microbiomes to shift their life-history strategies. Microbiomes of cultivated fertilized soils (i.e. higher nutrient amendment) presented tendencies to copiotrophy while microbiomes of non cultivated homogenous soils appeared to have a more oligotrophic life-style. Additionally, we propose that conventional tillage systems may

  5. Structure, Composition and Metagenomic Profile of Soil Microbiomes Associated to Agricultural Land Use and Tillage Systems in Argentine Pampas

    PubMed Central

    Carbonetto, Belén; Rascovan, Nicolás; Álvarez, Roberto; Mentaberry, Alejandro; Vázquez, Martin P.

    2014-01-01

    Agriculture is facing a major challenge nowadays: to increase crop production for food and energy while preserving ecosystem functioning and soil quality. Argentine Pampas is one of the main world producers of crops and one of the main adopters of conservation agriculture. Changes in soil chemical and physical properties of Pampas soils due to different tillage systems have been deeply studied. Still, not much evidence has been reported on the effects of agricultural practices on Pampas soil microbiomes. The aim of our study was to investigate the effects of agricultural land use on community structure, composition and metabolic profiles on soil microbiomes of Argentine Pampas. We also compared the effects associated to conventional practices with the effects of no-tillage systems. Our results confirmed the impact on microbiome structure and composition due to agricultural practices. The phyla Verrucomicrobia, Plactomycetes, Actinobacteria, and Chloroflexi were more abundant in non cultivated soils while Gemmatimonadetes, Nitrospirae and WS3 were more abundant in cultivated soils. Effects on metabolic metagenomic profiles were also observed. The relative abundance of genes assigned to transcription, protein modification, nucleotide transport and metabolism, wall and membrane biogenesis and intracellular trafficking and secretion were higher in cultivated fertilized soils than in non cultivated soils. We also observed significant differences in microbiome structure and taxonomic composition between soils under conventional and no- tillage systems. Overall, our results suggest that agronomical land use and the type of tillage system have induced microbiomes to shift their life-history strategies. Microbiomes of cultivated fertilized soils (i.e. higher nutrient amendment) presented tendencies to copiotrophy while microbiomes of non cultivated homogenous soils appeared to have a more oligotrophic life-style. Additionally, we propose that conventional tillage systems

  6. Climate change or land use dynamics: do we know what climate change indicators indicate?

    PubMed

    Clavero, Miguel; Villero, Daniel; Brotons, Lluís

    2011-04-21

    Different components of global change can have interacting effects on biodiversity and this may influence our ability to detect the specific consequences of climate change through biodiversity indicators. Here, we analyze whether climate change indicators can be affected by land use dynamics that are not directly determined by climate change. To this aim, we analyzed three community-level indicators of climate change impacts that are based on the optimal thermal environment and average latitude of the distribution of bird species present at local communities. We used multiple regression models to relate the variation in climate change indicators to: i) environmental temperature; and ii) three landscape gradients reflecting important current land use change processes (land abandonment, fire impacts and urbanization), all of them having forest areas at their positive extremes. We found that, with few exceptions, landscape gradients determined the figures of climate change indicators as strongly as temperature. Bird communities in forest habitats had colder-dwelling bird species with more northern distributions than farmland, burnt or urban areas. Our results show that land use changes can reverse, hide or exacerbate our perception of climate change impacts when measured through community-level climate change indicators. We stress the need of an explicit incorporation of the interactions between climate change and land use dynamics to understand what are current climate change indicators indicating and be able to isolate real climate change impacts.

  7. Sensitivity of simulated hydrological fluxes towards changes in soil properties in response to land use change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huisman, J. A.; Breuer, L.; Frede, H.-G.

    Current model studies on the impact of land use change on water resources often simulate changes in land use without considering changes in the soil properties due to the change in land use. In this study, an artificial study catchment representing the Dill catchment (Germany) was used within the eco-hydrological model SWAT-G to study the sensitivity of SWAT-G simulations towards changes in soil properties during land use change. Since there is little information on these soil-vegetation interactions, we performed a model sensitivity study to investigate the impact of changes in the depth of the top soil layer, bulk density, saturated hydraulic conductivity and available water content on several simulated hydrological fluxes. To assess the significance of the simulated changes due to the changing soil properties, we compared the model sensitivity with the uncertainty in the hydrological fluxes due to the uncertainty in the parameterization of the plant parameters. The results showed that the changes in soil properties due to a land use transition from cropland to pasture only have a minor impact on the simulated mean annual, summer and winter runoff and actual evapotranspiration. Soil-vegetation interactions have a stronger impact on the simulated mean surface runoff, although the absolute contribution of this flux is small in our conceptualization of the Dill catchment. A comparison of the sensitivity and uncertainty of the simulated hydrological fluxes led to the conclusion that changes in soil properties due to land use change are relatively unimportant in our model of the Dill catchment in the light of the low sensitivity of the dominating hydrological fluxes and the large output uncertainty due to the plant parameter uncertainty.

  8. Monitoring population and land use change in tropical forest protected areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zvoleff, A. I.; Rosa, M.; Ahumada, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    Monitoring human-environment interactions in tropical forest protected areas requires linking interdisciplinary datasets collected across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Recent assessments have shown that forest degradation and loss outside of protected areas is strongly associated with declines in biodiversity within protected areas. Biodiversity monitoring efforts must therefore develop approaches that consider change in the broader landscape, using biophysical and socioeconomic datasets that not only cover the extent of a protected area, but also the region surrounding it. The Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network has developed an approach for linking remotely sensed imagery from Landsat and MODIS sensors with in-situ ecological data and socioeconomic datasets to better understand the effects of landscape change on biodiversity. The TEAM Network is a global system for monitoring biodiversity, land use/cover change (LUCC), and climate in sixteen tropical forest sites evenly distributed across global biophysical gradients (rainfall and seasonality) and gradients of expected climate change and land use change. TEAM adopts the Zone of Interaction (ZOI) concept to delineate the spatial extent around protected areas for linking broader-scale trends in LUCC to plot-based monitoring data. This talk reports on a cross-site comparison examining LUCC and biodiversity change across the TEAM network. The analysis indicates a gradient of forest loss in the tropics dependent on landscape-level human factors, such as population and road density. The highest losses of forest cover are associated with changing patterns of land use and agricultural development, particularly plantation forestry in Southeast Asia. While the spatial and temporal resolution of remote sensing-derived datasets continues to increase, a key challenge for monitoring efforts is linking this data to spatially explicit socioeconomic datasets for use in statistical modeling. We will

  9. Assessing land use and cover change effects on hydrological response in the river C

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nunes, A.

    2009-04-01

    Assessing the impacts of land use change, especially the role of vegetation, on hydrological response from the plot to the catchment scale has become one of the widespread issues of scientific concern,in recent decades. The continuous expansion of urban areas, the dramatic changes in land-cover and land-use patterns and the climate change which have taken place on a global scale explain this increasing interest. Although scientists have long recognized that changes in land use and land cover are important factors affecting water circulation and the spatial-temporal variations in the distribution of water resources, little is known about the quantitative relation between land use/coverage characteristics and runoff generation or processes. Therefore, a better understanding of how land-use changes impact watershed hydrological processes will become a crucial issue for the planning, management, and sustainable development of water resources. In the past decades, abandonment of marginal agricultural land has been a widespread phenomenon in Portugal, as well as in many other countries of Europe, especially in the Mediterranean countries. The abandonment of arable land typically leads to natural succession and to the development of shrub and woodland. Shrubs like Cytisus spp.usually establish in study area. A Quercus pyrenaica Willd. wood generally appears after a long time, about 3 or 4 decades. The general aim of this work is to analyse the temporal evolution of water supplies in a Côa basins (located between 41°00'' N and 40°15'' N and 7°15'' W and 6°55'' W Greenwich)and relate its behaviour with changes undergone by the plant cover and by the main climatic variables (temperatures and precipitation). To achieve this goal, dynamics on the land use and land cover were estimated after the second half of the 20th century. The hydrological response under different land uses and plant covers were monitored during 2005 and 2006, using small permanently establish bounded

  10. Looking back to move forward on model validation: insights from a global model of agricultural land use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Hertel, Thomas W.

    2013-09-01

    Global agricultural models are becoming indispensable in the debate over climate change impacts and mitigation policies. Therefore, it is becoming increasingly important to validate these models and identify critical areas for improvement. In this letter, we illustrate both the opportunities and the challenges in undertaking such model validation, using the SIMPLE model of global agriculture. We look back at the long run historical period 1961-2006 and, using a few key historical drivers—population, incomes and total factor productivity—we find that SIMPLE is able to accurately reproduce historical changes in cropland use, crop price, crop production and average crop yields at the global scale. Equally important is our investigation into how the specific assumptions embedded in many agricultural models will likely influence these results. We find that those global models which are largely biophysical—thereby ignoring the price responsiveness of demand and supply—are likely to understate changes in crop production, while failing to capture the changes in cropland use and crop price. Likewise, global models which incorporate economic responses, but do so based on limited time series estimates of these responses, are likely to understate land use change and overstate price changes.

  11. Determination of the Impact of Urbanization on Agricultural Lands using Multi-temporal Satellite Sensor Images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaya, S.; Alganci, U.; Sertel, E.; Ustundag, B.

    2015-12-01

    Throughout the history, agricultural activities have been performed close to urban areas. Main reason behind this phenomenon is the need of fast marketing of the agricultural production to urban residents and financial provision. Thus, using the areas nearby cities for agricultural activities brings out advantage of easy transportation of productions and fast marketing. For decades, heavy migration to cities has directly and negatively affected natural grasslands, forests and agricultural lands. This pressure has caused agricultural lands to be changed into urban areas. Dense urbanization causes increase in impervious surfaces, heat islands and many other problems in addition to destruction of agricultural lands. Considering the negative impacts of urbanization on agricultural lands and natural resources, a periodic monitoring of these changes becomes indisputably important. At this point, satellite images are known to be good data sources for land cover / use change monitoring with their fast data acquisition, large area coverages and temporal resolution properties. Classification of the satellite images provides thematic the land cover / use maps of the earth surface and changes can be determined with GIS based analysis multi-temporal maps. In this study, effects of heavy urbanization over agricultural lands in Istanbul, metropolitan city of Turkey, were investigated with use of multi-temporal Landsat TM satellite images acquired between 1984 and 2011. Images were geometrically registered to each other and classified using supervised maximum likelihood classification algorithm. Resulting thematic maps were exported to GIS environment and destructed agricultural lands by urbanization were determined using spatial analysis.

  12. Changing Land Use to Offset CO2 Emissions: Limited Potential for the Upper Midwest of the U.S.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fissore, C.; Espelata, J. F.; Nater, E. A.; Hobbie, S. E.; Reich, P. B.

    2008-12-01

    Efforts to mitigate increasing carbon (C) emissions are needed, and increasingly more policies point at terrestrial ecosystems as places to sequester atmospheric CO2. Whether terrestrial C sequestration can offset significant CO2 emissions is questionable, particularly in light of (1) increasing pressures on land use from an array of competing sectors including food and biofuel production and urbanization, and (2) a growing concern among scientists that previously published rates of C sequestration attributed to the conversion from conventional tillage to no-till or conservation tillage were overly optimistic. We analyzed the potential to promote terrestrial C sequestration through changes in land use and land cover in the Upper Midwest of the U.S. over a 50-year timeframe based on available data. Although some land use and cover changes, such as restoring forests, grasslands and wetlands, cause substantial carbon storage for a given area of land, conversion of even 10% of the regions agricultural land would offset only a few percent of its carbon emissions. Conversion to no-till agricultural, although popular among policymakers, results in variable and, on average, negligible C sequestration (sequestration rates range from -0.2 to 0.8 Mg C ha-1 y-1). Despite the unquestionable ecological benefits of some of the proposed land use changes, land use change realistically can be only a modest part of a more comprehensive strategy to achieve significant emissions reductions.

  13. Legacies of Land Use Trajectories on Belowground Dynamics in Post-agricultural Tropical Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atkinson, E. E.; Marin-Spiotta, E.

    2012-12-01

    layer microbial community structure differed from all successional forest sites. Furthermore, we show strong differences in the soil microbial community with depth. In older forests that rapidly regenerated to secondary forest without an intermediate land use (i.e. tree plantation or high intensity pasture), we found increased extracellular enzyme activity in the forest floor, particularly for enzymes involved in the breakdown of cellulose, hemi-cellulose, and soluble saccharides. Pasture soils showed higher extracellular enzyme activity at the surface depth than the secondary forests. Since enzymes are directly linked to the turnover rates of different organic functional groups in soils, there is great potential for differences in enzyme activity to alter pathways of formation and stabilization of SOM. The next step in our research is to compare SOM chemistry and turnover for the different successional trajectories. We are installing long-term leaf litter, root, and soil transplant experiments between the younger secondary forests dominated by 1-2 exotic species and the older, more diverse secondary forests. From this research we expect to link microbial community structure and function with distinct forms of SOM, and thus determine whether changes in function create distinct SOM stabilization pathways.

  14. Landscape-scale modelling of soil carbon dynamics under land use and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lacoste, Marine; Viaud, Valérie; Michot, Didier; Christian, Walter

    2013-04-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration is highly linked to soil use and farming practices, but also to soil redistributions, soil properties, and climate. In a global change context, landscape, farming practice and climate changes are expected; and they will most probably impact SOC dynamics. To assess their respective impacts, we modelled the SOC contents and stocks evolution at the scale of an agricultural landscape, by taking into account the soil redistribution by tillage and water processes. The simulations were conducted from 2010 to 2100 under different scenarios of landscape and climate. These scenarios combined different land uses associated to specific farming practices (mixed dairy with rotations of crops and grasslands, intensive cropping with only crops rotations or permanent grasslands), landscape managements (hedges planting or removal), and climates (business-as-usual climate and climate change, with temperature and precipitations increase). We used a spatially SOC dynamic model (adapted from RothC), coupled to a soil redistribution model (LandSoil). SOC dynamics were spatially modelled with a lateral resolution of 2-m and for soil organic layers up to 105 cm. Initial SOC stocks were described with a 2-m resolution map based on field data and produced with digital soil mapping methods. The major factor of change in SOC stocks was land use change, the second factor of importance was climate change, and finally landscape management: for the total SOC stocks (0-to-105 cm soil layer) the change of land use, climate and landscape management induced a respective mean absolute variation of 10 to 20 tC ha-1, 9 tC ha-1 and 0.4 tC ha-1. When considering the 0-to-105 cm soil layer, the different modelled landscapes showed the same sensitivity to climate change, with induced a mean decrease of 10 tC ha-1. However, the impact of climate change was found different according to the different modelled landscape when considering the 0-to-7.5 and 0-to-30 cm soil

  15. Increasing land use drives changes in plant phylogenetic diversity and prevalence of specialists.

    PubMed

    Villalobos, Soraya; Vamosi, Jana C

    2016-01-01

    Increased human land use has resulted in the increased homogenization of biodiversity between sites, yet we lack sufficient indicators to predict which species decline and the consequence of their potential loss on ecosystem services. We used comparative phylogenetic analysis to (1) characterize how increasing conversion of forest and grasslands to grazing pasturelands changes plant diversity and composition; (2) examine how changes in land use relate to declines in functional trait diversity; and (3) specifically investigate how these changes in plant composition affect the prevalence of zygomorphy and the possible consequences that these changes may have on pollinator functional groups. As predicted, we found that the conversion to grazing pasturelands negatively impacted species richness and phylogenetic composition. Clades with significantly more represented taxa in grasslands (GL) were genera with a high representation of agricultural weeds, while the composition was biased towards clades of subalpine herbaceous wildflowers in Mixed Forest (MF). Changes in community composition and structure had strong effects on the prevalence of zygomorphic species likely driven by nitrogen-fixing abilities of certain clades with zygomorphic flowers (e.g., Fabaceae). Land conversion can thus have unexpected impacts on trait distributions relevant for the functioning of the community in other capacities (e.g., cascading effects to other trophic levels (i.e., pollinators). Finally, the combination of traits represented by the current composition of species in GL and MF might enhance the diagnostic value of productivity and ecosystem processes in the most eroded ecosystems. PMID:26966669

  16. Unhealthy Landscapes: Policy Recommendations on Land Use Change and Infectious Disease Emergence

    PubMed Central

    Patz, Jonathan A.; Daszak, Peter; Tabor, Gary M.; Aguirre, A. Alonso; Pearl, Mary; Epstein, Jon; Wolfe, Nathan D.; Kilpatrick, A. Marm; Foufopoulos, Johannes; Molyneux, David; Bradley, David J.

    2004-01-01

    Anthropogenic land use changes drive a range of infectious disease outbreaks and emergence events and modify the transmission of endemic infections. These drivers include agricultural encroachment, deforestation, road construction, dam building, irrigation, wetland modification, mining, the concentration or expansion of urban environments, coastal zone degradation, and other activities. These changes in turn cause a cascade of factors that exacerbate infectious disease emergence, such as forest fragmentation, disease introduction, pollution, poverty, and human migration. The Working Group on Land Use Change and Disease Emergence grew out of a special colloquium that convened international experts in infectious diseases, ecology, and environmental health to assess the current state of knowledge and to develop recommendations for addressing these environmental health challenges. The group established a systems model approach and priority lists of infectious diseases affected by ecologic degradation. Policy-relevant levels of the model include specific health risk factors, landscape or habitat change, and institutional (economic and behavioral) levels. The group recommended creating Centers of Excellence in Ecology and Health Research and Training, based at regional universities and/or research institutes with close links to the surrounding communities. The centers’ objectives would be 3-fold: a) to provide information to local communities about the links between environmental change and public health; b) to facilitate fully interdisciplinary research from a variety of natural, social, and health sciences and train professionals who can conduct interdisciplinary research; and c) to engage in science-based communication and assessment for policy making toward sustainable health and ecosystems. PMID:15238283

  17. Unhealthy landscapes: Policy recommendations on land use change and infectious disease emergence.

    PubMed

    Patz, Jonathan A; Daszak, Peter; Tabor, Gary M; Aguirre, A Alonso; Pearl, Mary; Epstein, Jon; Wolfe, Nathan D; Kilpatrick, A Marm; Foufopoulos, Johannes; Molyneux, David; Bradley, David J

    2004-07-01

    Anthropogenic land use changes drive a range of infectious disease outbreaks and emergence events and modify the transmission of endemic infections. These drivers include agricultural encroachment, deforestation, road construction, dam building, irrigation, wetland modification, mining, the concentration or expansion of urban environments, coastal zone degradation, and other activities. These changes in turn cause a cascade of factors that exacerbate infectious disease emergence, such as forest fragmentation, disease introduction, pollution, poverty, and human migration. The Working Group on Land Use Change and Disease Emergence grew out of a special colloquium that convened international experts in infectious diseases, ecology, and environmental health to assess the current state of knowledge and to develop recommendations for addressing these environmental health challenges. The group established a systems model approach and priority lists of infectious diseases affected by ecologic degradation. Policy-relevant levels of the model include specific health risk factors, landscape or habitat change, and institutional (economic and behavioral) levels. The group recommended creating Centers of Excellence in Ecology and Health Research and Training, based at regional universities and/or research institutes with close links to the surrounding communities. The centers' objectives would be 3-fold: a) to provide information to local communities about the links between environmental change and public health; b) to facilitate fully interdisciplinary research from a variety of natural, social, and health sciences and train professionals who can conduct interdisciplinary research; and c) to engage in science-based communication and assessment for policy making toward sustainable health and ecosystems. PMID:15238283

  18. Increasing land use drives changes in plant phylogenetic diversity and prevalence of specialists.

    PubMed

    Villalobos, Soraya; Vamosi, Jana C

    2016-01-01

    Increased human land use has resulted in the increased homogenization of biodiversity between sites, yet we lack sufficient indicators to predict which species decline and the consequence of their potential loss on ecosystem services. We used comparative phylogenetic analysis to (1) characterize how increasing conversion of forest and grasslands to grazing pasturelands changes plant diversity and composition; (2) examine how changes in land use relate to declines in functional trait diversity; and (3) specifically investigate how these changes in plant composition affect the prevalence of zygomorphy and the possible consequences that these changes may have on pollinator functional groups. As predicted, we found that the conversion to grazing pasturelands negatively impacted species richness and phylogenetic composition. Clades with significantly more represented taxa in grasslands (GL) were genera with a high representation of agricultural weeds, while the composition was biased towards clades of subalpine herbaceous wildflowers in Mixed Forest (MF). Changes in community composition and structure had strong effects on the prevalence of zygomorphic species likely driven by nitrogen-fixing abilities of certain clades with zygomorphic flowers (e.g., Fabaceae). Land conversion can thus have unexpected impacts on trait distributions relevant for the functioning of the community in other capacities (e.g., cascading effects to other trophic levels (i.e., pollinators). Finally, the combination of traits represented by the current composition of species in GL and MF might enhance the diagnostic value of productivity and ecosystem processes in the most eroded ecosystems.

  19. Increasing land use drives changes in plant phylogenetic diversity and prevalence of specialists

    PubMed Central

    Vamosi, Jana C.

    2016-01-01

    Increased human land use has resulted in the increased homogenization of biodiversity between sites, yet we lack sufficient indicators to predict which species decline and the consequence of their potential loss on ecosystem services. We used comparative phylogenetic analysis to (1) characterize how increasing conversion of forest and grasslands to grazing pasturelands changes plant diversity and composition; (2) examine how changes in land use relate to declines in functional trait diversity; and (3) specifically investigate how these changes in plant composition affect the prevalence of zygomorphy and the possible consequences that these changes may have on pollinator functional groups. As predicted, we found that the conversion to grazing pasturelands negatively impacted species richness and phylogenetic composition. Clades with significantly more represented taxa in grasslands (GL) were genera with a high representation of agricultural weeds, while the composition was biased towards clades of subalpine herbaceous wildflowers in Mixed Forest (MF). Changes in community composition and structure had strong effects on the prevalence of zygomorphic species likely driven by nitrogen-fixing abilities of certain clades with zygomorphic flowers (e.g., Fabaceae). Land conversion can thus have unexpected impacts on trait distributions relevant for the functioning of the community in other capacities (e.g., cascading effects to other trophic levels (i.e., pollinators). Finally, the combination of traits represented by the current composition of species in GL and MF might enhance the diagnostic value of productivity and ecosystem processes in the most eroded ecosystems. PMID:26966669

  20. Unhealthy landscapes: Policy recommendations on land use change and infectious disease emergence.

    PubMed

    Patz, Jonathan A; Daszak, Peter; Tabor, Gary M; Aguirre, A Alonso; Pearl, Mary; Epstein, Jon; Wolfe, Nathan D; Kilpatrick, A Marm; Foufopoulos, Johannes; Molyneux, David; Bradley, David J

    2004-07-01

    Anthropogenic land use changes drive a range of infectious disease outbreaks and emergence events and modify the transmission of endemic infections. These drivers include agricultural encroachment, deforestation, road construction, dam building, irrigation, wetland modification, mining, the concentration or expansion of urban environments, coastal zone degradation, and other activities. These changes in turn cause a cascade of factors that exacerbate infectious disease emergence, such as forest fragmentation, disease introduction, pollution, poverty, and human migration. The Working Group on Land Use Change and Disease Emergence grew out of a special colloquium that convened international experts in infectious diseases, ecology, and environmental health to assess the current state of knowledge and to develop recommendations for addressing these environmental health challenges. The group established a systems model approach and priority lists of infectious diseases affected by ecologic degradation. Policy-relevant levels of the model include specific health risk factors, landscape or habitat change, and institutional (economic and behavioral) levels. The group recommended creating Centers of Excellence in Ecology and Health Research and Training, based at regional universities and/or research institutes with close links to the surrounding communities. The centers' objectives would be 3-fold: a) to provide information to local communities about the links between environmental change and public health; b) to facilitate fully interdisciplinary research from a variety of natural, social, and health sciences and train professionals who can conduct interdisciplinary research; and c) to engage in science-based communication and assessment for policy making toward sustainable health and ecosystems.

  1. Runoff production in a small agricultural catchment in Lao PDR: influence of slope, land-use and observation scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patin, J.; Ribolzi, O.; Mugler, C.; Valentin, C.; Mouche, E.

    2010-12-01

    After years of traditional slash and burn cultures, the Houay Pano catchment is now under high land pressures due to population resettling and environmental preservation policies. This evolution leads to rapid land-use changes in the uplands, such as fallow time reductions and growing of cash crops as teaks or banana. The catchment is located in the Luang Prabang province, in the north of Lao PDR and was selected in late 1998 as a benchmark site for the Managing Soil Erosion Consortium (MSEC). It is a small (60ha) agricultural catchment representative of the rural mountainous South East Asia : it exhibits steep cultivated slopes (from 2% to more than 110%) under a wet-dry monsoon climate. To understand the partition between runoff and infiltration, data from runoff on 20 plot experiments (1m2) under natural rainfall and with representative slopes and land uses is collected from 2003 to 2009. A simulated rainfall experiment was conducted in 2002 on bare soil plots (1m2) with different antecedent cultures. We investigate the role of crust, slope and land-use on runoff production at different scales. A model accounting for small scale variability is applied to compute the time and space variations of soil infiltrability at the plot scale (1m2) and sub-catchment scale (0.6ha). From the hypothesis of exponentially distributed infiltrabilities at the centimeter scale, we found that infiltration is log-normaly distributed over time for a given land use. The median infiltrability vary from 10mm/h under teak cultures to 150mm/h on plots with fallow. Variations along a year are tribute to many meteorological and human factors.

  2. The plot size effect on soil erosion on rainfed agriculture land under different land uses in eastern Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cerdà, A.; Bodí, M. B.; Burguet, M.; Segura, M.; Jovani, C.

    2009-04-01

    Soil erosion at slope scale is dependent on the size of the plot. This is because soil erosion is a scale-dependent process due to the spatial variability in infiltration, the potential for sediment to be captured by vegetation and other roughness components, and the changes in erosion rates and processes with increasing amounts of runoff. The effects of plot size may also vary with land use, as plot size may be less important in areas with a more homogeneous plant cover or bares soils; meanwhile the soil transmission losses will higher on vegetation covered soils and on patchy distributed plants. A series of study plots were established in 2003 at the El Teularet experimental Station in the Sierra de Enguera in eastern Spain. The overall goal is to assess runoff and erosion rates from different land uses at different spatial scales. Thirteen sets of plots have been established, and each set consists of five adjacent plots that vary in size from 1 m2 (1 x 1 m), 2 m2 (1 x 2 m), 4 m2 (1 x 4 m), 16 m2 (2 x 8 m) and 48 m2 (3 m wide x 16 m length). Each set of plots has a different land use, and the land uses being tested in the first year of this study are fallow, ploughed but unplanted, untilled oats and beans, tilled oats and beans, straw mulch, mulched with chipped olive branches, a geotextile developed to control erosion on agricultural fields, scrub oaks (Quercus coccifera), gorse (Ulex parviflorus), and three herbicide treatments—a systemic herbicide, a contact herbicide, and a persistent herbicide. From those plots, three plots were selected to analyse the effect of the size of the plot on the soil erosion assessment. Herbicide (bare), Catch crops (oat) and scrubland were selected to analyze the soil losses during 2004 and 2005. The results shows that sediment delivery is highly dependent on the land use and land management as the scrubland contributed with null sediment yield, meanwhile the herbicide reached the largest soil loss. The soil erosion was higher

  3. The sustainable management of ameliorated peatlands on changed land use conditions; scenarios of constrains and possibilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shanskiy, , Merrit; Vollmer, Elis; Penu, Priit

    2015-04-01

    The utilization of organic soils for forestry or agriculture requires the land amelioration that could result on the peat losses from 15 to 20 t ha-1 in a year on following five years. After five years, the peat losses will be 5 - 15 t ha-1 in a year. The agricultural land resource on different types of organic soils (including ameliorated bogs) in Estonia is 360 000 ha that comprises 41% of total agricultural land area. The landscape iself is a valuable resource that considered to be a set of characteristics that satisfy needs of people using the landscape: economical or non-economical value; ecological, social, recreational, aesthetical, educational, scientific or even protective value. More diverse landscapes have higher biodiversity and yield more services to public, they are also seen as more sustainable and resilient to short-term changes. In order to maintain landscape diversity, sustainable maintenance is important. The purpose of current study was to estimate the land use potential on three different ameliorated peat areas and to develop the methodology for the futher sustainable utilization in order to secure the best ecological functioning of soil while taking into account maintaining and increasing landscape value. Therefore, site specific soil sampling (n=77) was carried out on predetermined eight study sites. Soil samples were analyzed for main agrochemical parameters (n=17; pHKCl, P, K, C%, N%, S%, ash, main anions and cations). This enables determing site-specific best suitable crops and land use scenarios. For the land resource description (soils type, topology) the digital soil map (1: 10,000) and field sudy based database were used for describing the model areas. For more specific identification of the field layers the Agricultural Registers and Information Board (ARIB) and databases of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) payments were used for subsidy schemes chekout. Estonian Nature Information System map tool was used to specify the

  4. Estimating Indirect Emissions from Land Use Change Due to Biofuels (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reilly, J. M.

    2010-12-01

    Interest in biofuels as an alternative fuel has led to the realization that they may not be a viable low greenhouse gas alternative, even if process emissions are low, because expansions of land area in biomass crops may lead to forest destruction and hence carbon emissions.(1,2)If the concern was only direct land use effects—changes in carbon stocks on land directly used for biomass—direct measurement would be an option. However, agricultural economists recognize that if biofuels are produced from crops grown on existing cropland the crops previously grown there will likely be replaced by production elsewhere. Given international markets in agricultural products a diversion of land or part of the corn crop in the US for biofuels would result in higher market prices for corn and other crops, and thus spur land conversion almost anywhere around the world. There have now been a number of estimates of the potential land use emissions, and those estimates vary widely and are sensitive to key parameters of both the economic models used in the analysis and the representation of biophysical processes.(3,4,5)Among the important parameters are those that describe the willingness to convert unmanaged land, the ability to intensify production on existing land, the productivity of new land coming to production compared to existing cropland, demand elasticities for agricultural products, and the representation of carbon and nitrogen cycles and storage.(6,7) 1. J. Fargione, J. et al., Science 319, 1235 (2008). 2. T. Searchinger, T et al., Science 319, 1238 (2008) 3. J.M. Melillo, Science, 326: 1397-1399 (2009) 4. M. Wise et al., Science 324, 1183 (2009). 5. W. E. Tyner, et al., Land Use Changes and Consequent CO2 Emissions due to US Corn Ethanol Production: A Comprehensive Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University (July 2010). 6. T. W. Hertel, The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making? AAEA Presidential

  5. Significance of urban and agricultural land use for biocide and pesticide dynamics in surface waters.

    PubMed

    Wittmer, I K; Bader, H-P; Scheidegger, R; Singer, H; Lück, A; Hanke, I; Carlsson, C; Stamm, C

    2010-05-01

    Biocides and pesticides are designed to control the occurrence of unwanted organisms. From their point of application, these substances can be mobilized and transported to surface waters posing a threat to the aquatic environment. Historically, agricultural pesticides have received substantially more attention than biocidal compounds from urban use, despite being used in similar quantities. This study aims at improving our understanding of the influence of mixed urban and agricultural land use on the overall concentration dynamics of biocides and pesticides during rain events throughout the year. A comprehensive field study was conducted in a catchment within the Swiss plateau (25 km(2)). Four surface water sampling sites represented varying combinations of urban and agricultural sources. Additionally, the urban drainage system was studied by sampling the only wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) in the catchment, a combined sewer overflow (CSO), and a storm sewer (SS). High temporal resolution sampling was carried out during rain events from March to November 2007. The results, based on more than 600 samples analyzed for 23 substances, revealed distinct and complex concentration patterns for different compounds and sources. Five types of concentration patterns can be distinguished: a) compounds that showed elevated background concentrations throughout the year (e.g. diazinon >50 ng L(-1)), indicating a constant household source; b) compounds that showed elevated concentrations driven by rain events throughout the year (e.g. diuron 100-300 ng L(-1)), indicating a constant urban outdoor source such as facades; c) compounds with seasonal peak concentrations driven by rain events from urban and agricultural areas (e.g. mecoprop 1600 ng L(-1) and atrazine 2500 ng L(-1) respectively); d) compounds that showed unpredictably sharp peaks (e.g. atrazine 10,000 ng L(-1), diazinon 2500 ng L(-1)), which were most probably due to improper handling or even disposal of products; and

  6. Land-use change impacts on soil hydrological properties and overland flow in Mediterranean periurban areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferreira, Carla S. S.; Ferreira, António J. D.; Walsh, Rory P. D.; Steenhuis, Tammo S.; Coelho, Celeste O. A.

    2014-05-01

    Urbanization leads to significant land-surface changes that affect soil properties and hydrological processes. Understanding landscape pattern and its impact on flow connectivity is still a challenge. In relation to a catchment undergoing active peri-urbanization, this paper aims to: 1) assess the spatiotemporal variability of soil hydrological properties in different land-uses; 2) understand how overland flow processes and spatial patterns change with season and weather; 3) discuss the impact of landscape pattern on flow connectivity and urban planning in order to prevent flood hazards. The study has been carried out in a Portuguese periurban catchment (620ha) with a sub-humid Mediterranean climate and part-limestone, part-sandstone lithology. Due to its proximity to the expanding city of Coimbra, the urban area increased from 6% to 30% between 1958 and 2009, and this trend is expected to continue. Currently the catchment is dominated by forest (62%), with only 8% under agriculture. Repeat field surveys and hydrological monitoring provided data to assess spatiotemporal dynamics of overland flow for different land-uses. Measurements of moisture content, hydrophobicity and infiltration capacity were carried out at 31 sites under different land-uses on nine occasions over a one-year period. Overland flow in eucalypt, oak and scrub forest was measured using 8mx2m runoff plots from Autumn 2010 (3 plots per forest type). Five raingauges and nine water-level recorders provided continuous records of hydrological data for upstream sub-catchments and the catchment outlet. The results showed spatiotemporal variations in hydrological processes and responses with land-use and geology. In dry weather, urban soils were hydrophilic and soil matrix infiltration capacity reached 12mm/h, while soils under forest and agriculture were hydrophobic and infiltration capacities were only 3-6 mm/h. In agricultural and scrub areas, hydrophobicity was easier to break down after rainfall

  7. Land use and stream nitrogen concentrations in agricultural watersheds along the central coast of California.

    PubMed

    Los Huertos, M; Gentry, L E; Shennan, C

    2001-11-22

    In coastal California nitrogen (N) in runoff from urban and agricultural land is suspected to impair surface water quality of creeks and rivers that discharge into the Monterey Bay Sanctuary. However, quantitative data on the impacts of land use activities on water quality are largely limited to unpublished reports and do not estimate N loading. We report on spatial and temporal patterns of N concentrations for several coastal creeks and rivers in central California. During the 2001 water year, we estimated that the Pajaro River at Chittenden exported 302.4 Mg of total N. Nitrate-N concentrations were typically <1 mg N l(-1) in grazing lands, oak woodlands, and forests, but increased to a range of 1 to 20 mg N l(-1) as surface waters passed through agricultural lands. Very high concentrations of nitrate (in excess of 80 mg N l(-1)) were found in selected agricultural ditches that received drainage from tiles (buried perforated pipes). Nitrate concentrations in these ditches remained high throughout the winter and spring, indicating nitrate was not being flushed out of the soil profile. We believe unused N fertilizer has accumulated in the shallow groundwater through many cropping cycles. Results are being used to organize landowners, resource managers, and growers to develop voluntary monitoring and water quality protection plans.

  8. Impacts of climate and land use changes on the hydrological and erosion processes of two contrasting Mediterranean catchments.

    PubMed

    Serpa, D; Nunes, J P; Santos, J; Sampaio, E; Jacinto, R; Veiga, S; Lima, J C; Moreira, M; Corte-Real, J; Keizer, J J; Abrantes, N

    2015-12-15

    The impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow and sediment export were evaluated for a humid (São Lourenço) and a dry (Guadalupe) Mediterranean catchment, using the SWAT model. SWAT was able to produce viable streamflow and sediment export simulations for both catchments, which provided a baseline for investigating climate and land use changes under the A1B and B1 emission scenarios for 2071-2100. Compared to the baseline scenario (1971-2000), climate change scenarios showed a decrease in annual rainfall for both catchments (humid: -12%; dry: -8%), together with strong increases in rainfall during winter. Land use changes were derived from a socio-economic storyline in which traditional agriculture is replaced by more profitable land uses (i.e. corn and commercial forestry at the humid site; sunflower at the dry site). Climate change projections showed a decrease in streamflow for both catchments, whereas sediment export decreased only for the São Lourenço catchment. Land use changes resulted in an increase in streamflow, but the erosive response differed between catchments. The combination of climate and land use change scenarios led to a reduction in streamflow for both catchments, suggesting a domain of the climatic response. As for sediments, contrasting results were observed for the humid (A1B: -29%; B1: -22%) and dry catchment (A1B: +222%; B1: +5%), which is mainly due to differences in the present-day and forecasted vegetation types. The results highlight the importance of climate-induced land-use change impacts, which could be similar to or more severe than the direct impacts of climate change alone.

  9. Mapping Soil Organic Carbon Resources Across Agricultural Land Uses in Highland Lesotho Using High Resolution Satellite Imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knight, J.; Adam, E.

    2015-12-01

    Mapping spatial patterns of soil organic carbon (SOC) using high resolution satellite imagery is especially important in inaccessible or upland areas that have limited field measurements, where land use and land cover (LULC) are changing rapidly, or where the land surface is sensitive to overgrazing and high rates of soil erosion and thus sediment, nutrient and carbon export. Here we outline the methods and results of mapping soil organic carbon in highland areas (~2400 m) of eastern Lesotho, southern Africa, across different land uses. Bedrock summit areas with very thin soils are dominated by xeric alpine grassland; terrace agriculture with strip fields and thicker soils is found within river valleys. Multispectral Worldview 2 imagery was used to map LULC across the region. An overall accuracy of 88% and kappa value of 0.83 were achieved using a support vector machine model. Soils were examined in the field from different LULC areas for properties such as soil depth, maturity and structure. In situ soils in the field were also evaluated using a portable analytical spectral device (ASD) in order to ground truth spectral signatures from Worldview. Soil samples were examined in the lab for chemical properties including organic carbon. Regression modeling was used in order to establish a relationship between soil characteristics and soil spectral reflectance. We were thus able to map SOC across this diverse landscape. Results show that there are notable differences in SOC between upland and agricultural areas which reflect both soil thickness and maturity, and land use practices such as manuring of fields by cattle. Soil erosion and thus carbon (nutrient) export is significant issue in this region, which this project will now be examining.

  10. Towards Sustaining Water Resources and Aquatic Ecosystems: Forecasting Watershed Risks to Current and Future Land Use Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lohse, K. A.; Newburn, D.; Opperman, J. J.; Brooks, C.; Merenlender, A.

    2005-05-01

    Sustaining aquatic resources requires managing existing threats and anticipating future impacts. Resource managers and planners often have limited understanding of the relative effects of human activities on stream conditions and how these effects will change over time. Here we assess and forecast the relative impacts of land use on sediment concentrations in Mediterranean-climate watersheds in California. We focus on the Russian River basin, which supports threatened salmonid populations vulnerable to high levels of fine sediment. We ask the following questions: (1) What are the relative impacts of three different land uses (urban, exurban and agriculture) on the patterns of fine sediment in streams? (2) What is the relative contribution of past and current changes in land use activities on these patterns? and (3) What are the effects of future development on these sediment levels? First, we characterized land use at the parcel scale to calibrate the relative impacts of exurban and urban land use on stream substrate quality, characterized by the concentration of fine sediment surrounding spawning gravels (`embeddedness') in 105 stream reaches. Second, we built multiple ordinal logistic regression models on a subset of watersheds (n=64) and then evaluated substrate quality predictions against observed data from another set of watersheds (n=41). Finally, we coupled these models with spatially explicit land use change models to project future stream conditions and associated uncertainties under different development scenarios for the year 2010. We found that the percent of urban housing and agriculture were significant predictors of in-stream embeddedness. Model results from parcel-level land use data indicated that changes in development were better predictors of fine sediment than total development in a single time period. In addition, our results indicate that exurban development is an important threat to stream systems; increases in the percent of total exurban

  11. Long-lived organisms provide an integrative footprint of agricultural land use.

    PubMed

    Atkinson, Carla L; Christian, Alan D; Spooner, Daniel E; Vaughn, Caryn C

    2014-03-01

    Nitrogen (N) fertilizer runoff into rivers is linked to nutrient enrichment, hydrologic alteration, habitat degradation and loss, and declines in biotic integrity in streams. Nitrogen runoff from agriculture is expected to increase with population growth, so tracking these sources is vital to enhancing biomonitoring and management actions. Unionid mussels are large, long-lived, sedentary, primary consumers that transfer particulate material and nutrients from the water column to the sediments through their filter feeding. Because of these traits, mussels may provide a temporal integration of nitrogen inputs into watersheds. Our goals were to (1) establish a baseline delta15N signature for unionid mussels in watersheds not heavily influenced by agriculture for use in comparative analyses and (2) determine if mussels provide an integrative measure of N sources in watersheds with varying percentages of agriculture across large spatial scales. We compiled tissue delta15N data for 20 species of mussels from seven geographic areas, including 23 watersheds and 42 sample sites that spanned varying degrees of agricultural intensification across the eastern United States and Canada. We used GIS to determine land cover within the study basins, and we estimated net anthropogenic nitrogen inputs (NANI) entering these systems. We then determined the relationship between mussel tissue delta15N and percentage of land in agriculture (%AG) and net anthropogenic N loading. The delta15N of mussel tissue could be predicted from both %AG and net anthropogenic N loading, and one component of NANI, the amount of N fertilizer applied, was strongly related to the delta15N of mussel tissue. Based on our results, mussels occupying a system not affected by agricultural land use would have a baseline delta15N signature of approximately 2.0 pe thousand, whereas mussels in basins with heavy agriculture had delta15N signatures of 13.6 per thousand. Our results demonstrate that mussels integrate

  12. The impacts of land use change on malaria vector abundance in a water-limited, highland region of Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Stryker, Jody J; Bomblies, Arne

    2012-12-01

    Changes in land use and climate are expected to alter the risk of malaria transmission in areas where rainfall limits vector abundance. We use a coupled hydrology-entomology model to investigate the effects of land use change on hydrological processes impacting mosquito abundance in a highland village of Ethiopia. Land use affects partitioning of rainfall into infiltration and runoff that reaches small-scale topographic depressions, which constitute the primary breeding habitat of Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes. A physically based hydrology model isolates hydrological mechanisms by which land use impacts pool formation and persistence, and an agent-based entomology model evaluates the response of mosquito populations. This approach reproduced observed interannual variability in mosquito abundance between the 2009 and 2010 wet seasons. Several scenarios of land cover were then evaluated using the calibrated, field-validated model. Model results show variation in pool persistence and depth, as well as in mosquito abundance, due to land use changes alone. The model showed particular sensitivity to surface roughness, but also to root zone uptake. Scenarios in which land use was modified from agriculture to forest generally resulted in lowest mosquito abundance predictions; classification of the entire domain as rainforest produced a 34% decrease in abundance compared to 2010 results. This study also showed that in addition to vegetation type, spatial proximity of land use change to habitat locations has an impact on mosquito abundance. This modeling approach can be applied to assess impacts of climate and land use conditions that fall outside of the range of previously observed variability.

  13. The Impacts of Land Use Change on Malaria Vector Abundance in a Water-Limited Highland Region of Ethiopia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stryker, J.; Bomblies, A.

    2012-12-01

    Changes in land use and climate are expected to alter risk of malaria transmission in areas where rainfall limits vector abundance. We use a coupled hydrology-entomology model to investigate the effects of land use change on hydrological processes impacting mosquito abundance in a highland village of Ethiopia. Land use affects partitioning of rainfall into infiltration and runoff that reaches small-scale topographic depressions, which constitute the primary breeding habitat of Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes. A physically-based hydrology model isolates hydrological mechanisms by which land use impacts pool formation and persistence, and an agent-based entomology model evaluates the response of mosquito populations. This approach reproduced observed interannual variability in mosquito abundance between the 2009 and 2010 wet seasons. Several scenarios of land cover were then evaluated using the calibrated, field-validated model. Model results show variation in pool persistence and depth, as well as in mosquito abundance, due to land use changes alone. The model showed particular sensitivity to surface roughness, but also to root zone uptake. Scenarios in which land use was modified from agriculture to forest generally resulted in lowest mosquito abundance predictions; classification of the entire domain as rainforest produced a 34% decrease in abundance compared to 2010 results. This study also showed that in addition to vegetation type, spatial proximity of land use change to habitat locations has an impact on mosquito abundance. This modeling approach can be applied to assess impacts of climate and land use conditions that fall outside of the range of previously observed variability.

  14. Potential population-level effects of land-use change and climate change

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change and land-use change are poised to be two fo the largest drivers of biological changeover the next century. We explored the potential effects of these two forces on a population of Red-cockaded Woodpeckers (Picoides borealis) at Fort Benning in Georgia, USA. We us...

  15. Holocene land-use change impacts on global and regional climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singarayer, J. S.; Valdes, P.

    2013-12-01

    Arguably the largest change to human society in prehistory was the Neolithic (agricultural) revolution approximately 10 000 years ago. Large-scale conversion of natural environments to land suitable for cultivation (mainly through deforestation and irrigation) occurred gradually over thousands of years, increasing considerably in the last 2000 years. In recent reconstructions of Holocene/Neolithic land-use change it has been estimated that cropland occupied roughly 1 per cent of global ice-free land area by AD 1000 (e.g. Klein Goldewijk et al., 2010), with regions such as Europe likely to be much higher than this (Kaplan et al., 2009). Previous studies have estimated the impacts of this prehistoric land conversion on the carbon cycle (e.g. Kaplan et al, 2010). In this study we examine the impacts of the biogeophysical factors on Holocene climate change and climate variability. We have performed two sets of simulations with global coupled ocean-atmosphere-vegetation model, HadCM3. The first set is of equilibrium simulations at 1-kyr intervals through the Holocene without any prescribed change to land-use (i.e. no anthropogenic influence). The second set of simulations prescribes increased anthropogenic conversion to agricultural land throughout the Holocene. We assess the impact of regional changes to albedo, roughness length, and hydrological cycle on regional and global climate, and we compare overall Holocene trends to recent estimates of global temperature trends using palaeodata to examine the scale of anthropogenic influence on long-term climate change, with particular focus on the last 2000 years.

  16. Riparian responses to extreme climate and land-use change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Fernandes, Maria Rosário; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, Maria Teresa

    2016-11-01

    Climate change will induce alterations in the hydrological and landscape patterns with effects on riparian ecotones. In this study we assess the combined effect of an extreme climate and land-use change scenario on riparian woody structure and how this will translate into a future risk of riparian functionality loss. The study was conducted in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) were used to model two riparian landscape indicators related with the degree of connectivity (Mean Width) and complexity (Area Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension). Riparian data were extracted by planimetric analysis of high spatial-resolution Word Imagery Layer (ESRI). Hydrological, climatic and land-use variables were obtained from available datasets and generated with process-based modeling using current climate data (2008-2014), while also considering the high-end RCP8.5 climate-change and "Icarus" socio-economic scenarios for the 2046-2065 time slice. Our results show that hydrological and land-use changes strongly influence future projections of riparian connectivity and complexity, albeit to diverse degrees and with differing effects. A harsh reduction in average flows may impair riparian zones while an increase in extreme rain events may benefit connectivity by promoting hydrologic dynamics with the surrounding floodplains. The expected increase in broad-leaved woodlands and mixed forests may enhance the riparian galleries by reducing the agricultural pressure on the area in the vicinity of the river. According to our results, 63% of river segments in the Tâmega basin exhibited a moderate risk of functionality loss, 16% a high risk, and 21% no risk. Weaknesses and strengths of the method are highlighted and results are discussed based on a resilience perspective with regard to riparian ecosystems. PMID:27341115

  17. Riparian responses to extreme climate and land-use change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Fernandes, Maria Rosário; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, Maria Teresa

    2016-11-01

    Climate change will induce alterations in the hydrological and landscape patterns with effects on riparian ecotones. In this study we assess the combined effect of an extreme climate and land-use change scenario on riparian woody structure and how this will translate into a future risk of riparian functionality loss. The study was conducted in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) were used to model two riparian landscape indicators related with the degree of connectivity (Mean Width) and complexity (Area Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension). Riparian data were extracted by planimetric analysis of high spatial-resolution Word Imagery Layer (ESRI). Hydrological, climatic and land-use variables were obtained from available datasets and generated with process-based modeling using current climate data (2008-2014), while also considering the high-end RCP8.5 climate-change and "Icarus" socio-economic scenarios for the 2046-2065 time slice. Our results show that hydrological and land-use changes strongly influence future projections of riparian connectivity and complexity, albeit to diverse degrees and with differing effects. A harsh reduction in average flows may impair riparian zones while an increase in extreme rain events may benefit connectivity by promoting hydrologic dynamics with the surrounding floodplains. The expected increase in broad-leaved woodlands and mixed forests may enhance the riparian galleries by reducing the agricultural pressure on the area in the vicinity of the river. According to our results, 63% of river segments in the Tâmega basin exhibited a moderate risk of functionality loss, 16% a high risk, and 21% no risk. Weaknesses and strengths of the method are highlighted and results are discussed based on a resilience perspective with regard to riparian ecosystems.

  18. Biofuels, land use change, and greenhouse gas emissions: some unexplored variables.

    PubMed

    Kim, Hyungtae; Kim, Seungdo; Dale, Bruce E

    2009-02-01

    Greenhouse gas release from land use change (the so-called "carbon debt") has been identified as a potentially significant contributor to the environmental profile of biofuels. The time required for biofuels to overcome this carbon debt due to land use change and begin providing cumulative greenhouse gas benefits is referred to as the "payback period" and has been estimated to be 100-1000 years depending on the specific ecosystem involved in the land use change event. Two mechanisms for land use change exist: "direct" land use change, in which the land use change occurs as part of a specific supply chain for a specific biofuel production facility, and "indirect" land use change, in which market forces act to produce land use change in land that is not part of a specific biofuel supply chain, including, for example, hypothetical land use change on another continent. Existing land use change studies did not consider many of the potentially important variables that might affect the greenhouse gas emissions of biofuels. We examine here several variables that have not yet been addressed in land use change studies. Our analysis shows that cropping management is a key factor in estimating greenhouse gas emissions associated with land use change. Sustainable cropping management practices (no-till and no-till plus cover crops) reduce the payback period to 3 years for the grassland conversion case and to 14 years for the forest conversion case. It is significant that no-till and cover crop practices also yield higher soil organic carbon (SOC) levels in corn fields derived from former grasslands or forests than the SOC levels that result if these grasslands or forests are allowed to continue undisturbed. The United States currently does not hold any of its domestic industries responsible for its greenhouse gas emissions. Thus the greenhouse gas standards established for renewable fuels such as corn ethanol in the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 set a

  19. Biofuels, land use change, and greenhouse gas emissions: some unexplored variables.

    PubMed

    Kim, Hyungtae; Kim, Seungdo; Dale, Bruce E

    2009-02-01

    Greenhouse gas release from land use change (the so-called "carbon debt") has been identified as a potentially significant contributor to the environmental profile of biofuels. The time required for biofuels to overcome this carbon debt due to land use change and begin providing cumulative greenhouse gas benefits is referred to as the "payback period" and has been estimated to be 100-1000 years depending on the specific ecosystem involved in the land use change event. Two mechanisms for land use change exist: "direct" land use change, in which the land use change occurs as part of a specific supply chain for a specific biofuel production facility, and "indirect" land use change, in which market forces act to produce land use change in land that is not part of a specific biofuel supply chain, including, for example, hypothetical land use change on another continent. Existing land use change studies did not consider many of the potentially important variables that might affect the greenhouse gas emissions of biofuels. We examine here several variables that have not yet been addressed in land use change studies. Our analysis shows that cropping management is a key factor in estimating greenhouse gas emissions associated with land use change. Sustainable cropping management practices (no-till and no-till plus cover crops) reduce the payback period to 3 years for the grassland conversion case and to 14 years for the forest conversion case. It is significant that no-till and cover crop practices also yield higher soil organic carbon (SOC) levels in corn fields derived from former grasslands or forests than the SOC levels that result if these grasslands or forests are allowed to continue undisturbed. The United States currently does not hold any of its domestic industries responsible for its greenhouse gas emissions. Thus the greenhouse gas standards established for renewable fuels such as corn ethanol in the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 set a

  20. Association of land use and its change with beach closure in the United States, 2004-2013.

    PubMed

    Wu, Jianyong; Jackson, Laura

    2016-11-15

    Land use and its change have great influences on water quality. However, their impacts on microbial contamination of beach water have rarely been investigated and their relationship with beach actions (e.g., advisories or closure) is still unknown. Here, we analyzed beach closure data obtained from 2004 to 2013 for >500 beaches in the United States, and examined their associations with land use around beaches in 2006 and 2011, as well as the land use change between 2006 and 2011. The results show that the number of beach closures due to elevated indicators of health risk is negatively associated with the percentages of forest, barren land, grassland and wetland, while positively associated with the percentages of urban area. The results from multi-level models also indicate the negative association with forest area but positive association with urban area and agriculture. The examination of the change of land use and the number of beach closures between 2006 and 2011 indicates that the increase in the number of beach closures is positively associated with the increase in urban (β=1.612, p<0.05) and agricultural area including pasture (β=0.098, p<0.05), but negatively associated with the increase in forest area (β=-1.789, p<0.05). The study suggests that urbanization and agriculture development near beaches have adverse effects on beach microbial water quality, while afforestation may protect beach water quality and reduce the number of beach closures. PMID:27459255

  1. Association of land use and its change with beach closure in the United States, 2004-2013.

    PubMed

    Wu, Jianyong; Jackson, Laura

    2016-11-15

    Land use and its change have great influences on water quality. However, their impacts on microbial contamination of beach water have rarely been investigated and their relationship with beach actions (e.g., advisories or closure) is still unknown. Here, we analyzed beach closure data obtained from 2004 to 2013 for >500 beaches in the United States, and examined their associations with land use around beaches in 2006 and 2011, as well as the land use change between 2006 and 2011. The results show that the number of beach closures due to elevated indicators of health risk is negatively associated with the percentages of forest, barren land, grassland and wetland, while positively associated with the percentages of urban area. The results from multi-level models also indicate the negative association with forest area but positive association with urban area and agriculture. The exami