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Sample records for agricultural land-use change

  1. Agricultural land use change in the Northeast

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The USDA Census of Agriculture (http://www.agcensus.usda.gov/) provides county-level estimates of farm numbers, land use area and livestock and crop production every five years. In 2007, only eight of the 299 counties that make up the twelve Northeastern states had no agricultural land use. About 20...

  2. Climate change - Agricultural land use - Food security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagy, János; Széles, Adrienn

    2015-04-01

    In Hungary, plougland decreased to 52% of its area by the time of political restructuring (1989) in comparison with the 1950s. Forested areas increased significantly (18%) and lands withdrawn from agricultural production doubled (11%). For today, these proportions further changed. Ploughlands reduced to 46% and forested areas further increased (21%) in 2013. The most significat changes were observed in the proportion of lands withdrawn from agricultural production which increased to 21%. Temperature in Hungary increased by 1°C during the last century and predictions show a further 2.6 °C increase by 2050. The yearly amount of precipitation significantly decreased from 640 mm to 560 mm with a more uneven temporal distribution. The following aspects can be considered in the correlation between climate change and agriculture: a) impact of agriculture on climate, b) future impact of climate change on agriculture and food supply, c) impact of climate change on food security. The reason for the significant change of climate is the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) which results from anthropological activities. Between 2008 and 2012, Hungary had to reduce its GHG emission by 6% compared to the base period between 1985-1987. At the end of 2011, Hungarian GHG emission was 43.1% lower than that of the base period. The total gross emission was 66.2 million CO2 equivalent, while the net emission which also includes land use, land use change and forestry was 62.8 million tons. The emission of agriculture was 8.8 million tons (OMSZ, 2013). The greatest opportunity to reduce agricultural GHG emission is dinitrogen oxides which can be significantly mitigated by the smaller extent and more efficient use of nitrogen-based fertilisers (precision farming) and by using biomanures produced from utilised waste materials. Plant and animal species which better adapt to extreme weather circumstances should be bred and maintained, thereby making an investment in food security. Climate

  3. Implication of Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Climate Projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural land use plays an important role in land-atmosphere interaction. Agricultural activity is one of the most important processes driving human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) in a region. In addition to future socioeconomic changes, climate-induced changes in crop yield represent another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In feedback, the resulting LULCC influences the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. Therefore, assessment of climate change impact on future agricultural land use and its feedback is of great importance in climate change study. In this study, to evaluate the feedback of projected land use changes to the regional climate in West Africa, we employed an asynchronous coupling between a regional climate model (RegCM) and a prototype land use projection model (LandPro). The LandPro model, which was developed to project the future change in agricultural land use and the resulting shift in natural vegetation in West Africa, is a spatially explicit model that can account for both climate and socioeconomic changes in projecting future land use changes. In the asynchronously coupled modeling framework, LandPro was run for every five years during the period of 2005-2050 accounting for climate-induced change in crop yield and socioeconomic changes to project the land use pattern by the mid-21st century. Climate data at 0.5˚ was derived from RegCM to drive the crop model DSSAT for each of the five-year periods to simulate crop yields, which was then provided as input data to LandPro. Subsequently, the land use land cover map required to run RegCM was updated every five years using the outputs from the LandPro simulations. Results from the coupled model simulations improve the understanding of climate change impact on future land use and the resulting feedback to regional climate.

  4. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

  5. Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Agricultural Land Use, and Regional Carbon Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MU, J.

    2014-12-01

    Changes in land use have caused a net release of carbon to the atmosphere over the last centuries and decades1. On one hand, agriculture accounts for 52% and 84% of global anthropogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions, respectively. On the other hand, many agricultural practices can potentially mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the most prominent of which are improved cropland and grazing land management2. From this perspective, land use change that reduces emissions and/or increases carbon sequestration can play an important role in climate change mitigation. As shown in Figure 1, this paper is an integrated study of climate impacts, land uses, and regional carbon changes to examine, link and assess climate impacts on regional carbon changes via impacts on land uses. This study will contribute to previous research in two aspects: impacts of climate change on future land uses under an uncertain future world and projections of regional carbon dynamics due to changes in future land use. Specifically, we will examine how land use change under historical climate change using observed data and then project changes in land use under future climate projections from 14 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two emission scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). More importantly, we will investigate future land use under uncertainties with changes in agricultural development and social-economic conditions along with a changing climate. By doing this, we then could integrate with existing efforts by USGS land-change scientists developing and parameterizing models capable of projecting changes across a full spectrum of land use and land cover changes and track the consequences on ecosystem carbon to provide better information for land managers and policy makers when informing climate change adaptation and mitigation policies.

  6. Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes

  7. Change in agricultural land use constrains adaptation of national wildlife refuges to climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hamilton, Christopher M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Pidgeon, Anna M.

    2015-01-01

    Land-use change around protected areas limits their ability to conserve biodiversity by altering ecological processes such as natural hydrologic and disturbance regimes, facilitating species invasions, and interfering with dispersal of organisms. This paper informs USA National Wildlife Refuge System conservation planning by predicting future land-use change on lands within 25 km distance of 461 refuges in the USA using an econometric model. The model contained two differing policy scenarios, namely a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario and a ‘pro-agriculture’ scenario. Regardless of scenario, by 2051, forest cover and urban land use were predicted to increase around refuges, while the extent of range and pasture was predicted to decrease; cropland use decreased under the business-as-usual scenario, but increased under the pro-agriculture scenario. Increasing agricultural land value under the pro-agriculture scenario slowed an expected increase in forest around refuges, and doubled the rate of range and pasture loss. Intensity of land-use change on lands surrounding refuges differed by regions. Regional differences among scenarios revealed that an understanding of regional and local land-use dynamics and management options was an essential requirement to effectively manage these conserved lands. Such knowledge is particularly important given the predicted need to adapt to a changing global climate.

  8. Establishing sustainable GHG inventory systems in African countries for Agriculture and Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wirth, T. C.; Troxler, T.

    2015-12-01

    As signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), developing countries are required to produce greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories every two years. For many developing countries, including many of those in Africa, this is a significant challenge as it requires establishing a robust and sustainable GHG inventory system. In order to help support these efforts, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has worked in collaboration with the UNFCCC to assist African countries in establishing sustainable GHG inventory systems and generating high-quality inventories on a regular basis. The sectors we have focused on for these GHG inventory capacity building efforts in Africa are Agriculture and Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) as these tend to represent a significant portion of their GHG emissions profile and the data requirements and methodologies are often more complex than for other sectors. To support these efforts, the U.S. EPA has provided technical assistance in understanding the methods in the IPCC Guidelines, assembling activity data and emission factors, including developing land-use maps for representing a country's land base, and implementing the calculations. EPA has also supported development of various tools such as a Template Workbook that helps the country build the institutional arrangement and strong documentation that are necessary for generating GHG inventories on a regular basis, as well as performing other procedures as identified by IPCC Good Practice Guidance such as quality assurance/quality control, key category analysis and archiving. Another tool used in these projects and helps country's implement the methods from the IPCC Guidelines for the Agriculture and LULUCF sectors is the Agriculture and Land Use (ALU) tool. This tool helps countries assemble the activity data and emission factors, including supporting the import of GIS maps, and applying the equations from the IPPC Guidelines to

  9. Potential impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on future agricultural land use in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farzan Ahmed, Kazi; Wang, Guiling; You, Liangzhi; Yu, Miao

    2016-02-01

    Agriculture is a key component of anthropogenic land use and land cover changes that influence regional climate. Meanwhile, in addition to socioeconomic drivers, climate is another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In this study, we compare the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa using a prototype land use projection (LandPro) algorithm. The algorithm is based on a balance between food supply and demand, and accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. The impact of human decision-making on land use is explicitly considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios. In the application to West Africa, future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate model, and future changes of food demand is projected using a model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. Without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease in crop yield together with future increases in food demand is found to cause a significant increase in cropland areas at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century. The increase in agricultural land use is primarily climate-driven in the western part of West Africa and socioeconomically driven in the eastern part. Analysis of results from multiple scenarios of crop area allocation suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed decision-making can potentially minimize future land use changes in many parts of the region.

  10. Targeting land-use change for nitratenitrogen load reductions in an agricultural watershed

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jha, M.K.; Schilling, K.E.; Gassman, P.W.; Wolter, C.F.

    2010-01-01

    The research was conducted as part of the USDA's Conservation Effects Assessment Project. The objective of the project was to evaluate the environmental effects of land-use changes, with a focus on understanding how the spatial distribution throughout a watershed influences their effectiveness.The Soil and Water AssessmentTool (SWAT) water quality model was applied to the Squaw Creek watershed, which covers 4,730 ha (11,683 ac) of prime agriculture land in southern Iowa. The model was calibrated (2000 to 2004) and validated (1996 to 1999) for overall watershed hydrology and for streamflow and nitrate loadings at the watershed outlet on an annual and monthly basis. Four scenarios for land-use change were evaluated including one scenario consistent with recent land-use changes and three scenarios focused on land-use change on highly erodible land areas, upper basin areas, and floodplain areas. Results for the Squaw Creek watershed suggested that nitrate losses were sensitive to land-use change. If land-use patterns were restored to 1990 conditions, nitrate loads may be reduced 7% to 47% in the watershed and subbasins, whereas converting row crops to grass in highly erodible land, upper basin, and floodplain areas would reduce nitrate loads by 47%, 16%, and 8%, respectively. These SWAT model simulations can provide guidance on how to begin targeting land-use change for nitrate load reductions in agricultural watersheds.

  11. Reconstructing a century of agricultural land use and drivers of change from social and environmental records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sangster, Heather; Smith, Hugh; Riley, Mark; Sellami, Haykel; Chiverrell, Richard; Boyle, John

    2016-04-01

    Changes to agricultural land use practices and climate represent serious challenges to the future management of rural landscapes. In Britain, the modern rural landscape may seem comparatively stable relative to the long history of human impact. However, there have been important changes linked to the intensification of agricultural practices during the last ca. 100 years and more recently improvements in land management designed to reduce impacts on land and water resources. Few studies attempt high-resolution spatial reconstruction of historic land use change, which is essential for understanding such human-environment interactions in the recent past. Specifically, the absence of detailed spatio-temporal records of agricultural land use/land cover change at the catchment-scale presents a challenge in assessing recent developments in land use policies and management. Here, we generate a high-resolution time-series of historic land use at the catchment-scale for hydrological modelling applications. Our reconstructions focus on three catchments in England ((1) Brotherswater (NE Lake District); (2) Crose Mere (Shropshire); (3) Loweswater (NW Lake District)) spanning a range of agricultural environments subject to different levels of land use change; from intensively-farmed lowlands to upland catchments subject to lower-intensity grazing. Temporal reconstructions of changes in land management practices and vegetation cover are based on historic aerial photography (1940s-2000s) and satellite-derived land cover maps (1990, 2000, and 2007), in combination with annual records of parish-level agricultural census data (1890s-1970s) and farmer interviews, in order to produce an integrated series of digital land cover and land practice maps. The datasets are coupled with composite temperature and precipitation series produced from a number of local stations. Combined, these spatio-temporal datasets allow a comprehensive assessment of land use and management change against the

  12. Estimating Agricultural Land Use Change in Karamoja, NE. Uganda Using Very High Resolution Satellite Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakalembe, C. L.

    2013-12-01

    Land use information is useful for deriving biophysical variables for effective planning and management of natural resources. Land use information is also needed to understand negative environmental impacts of land use while maintaining economic and social benefits. Recent maps of land cover and land use have been generated for Africa at the continental scale from coarse resolution data (e.g. MODIS, Spot Vegetation, MERIS, and Landsat). In these map products, croplands and rangelands are generally poorly represented, particularly in semi-arid regions like Karamoja. Products derived from coarse resolution data also fail at mapping subsistence croplands and are limited in their use for extraction of land-cover specific temporal profiles for agricultural monitoring in the study area (Fritz, See, & Rembold, 2010). Given the subsistence nature of agriculture, most fields in Karamoja are very small that care not discernible from other land uses in coarse resolution data and data products such as FAO Africover2000. product derived from 30m Landsat data is one such product. There is a high level of disagreement and large errors of omission and omission due to the coarse resolution of the data used to derive the product. In addition population growth and policy changes in the region have resulted in a shift to agro-pastoralism and systematic expansion of cropland area since 2000. This research will produce an updated agricultural land use map for Karamoja. The land cover map will be used to estimate agricultural land use change in the region and as a filter to extract agricultural land use specific temporal profiles specific to agriculture to compare to crop statistics.

  13. Impacts of Biofuel-Induced Agricultural Land Use Changes on Watershed Hydrology and Water Quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Z.; Zheng, H.

    2015-12-01

    The US Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 has contributed to widespread changes in agricultural land uses. The impact of these land use changes on regional water resources could also be significant. Agricultural land use changes were evaluated for the Red River of the North Basin (RRNB), an international river basin shared by the US and Canada. The influence of the land use changes on spring snowmelt flooding and downstream water quality was also assessed using watershed modeling. The planting areas for corn and soybean in the basin increased by 62% and 18%, while those for spring wheat, forest, and pasture decreased by 30%, 18%, and 50%, from 2006 to 2013. Although the magnitude of spring snowmelt peak flows in the Red River did not change from pre-EISA to post-EISA, our uncertainty analysis of the normalized hydrographs revealed that the downstream streamflows had a greater variability under the post-EISA land use scenario, which may lead to greater uncertainty in predicting spring snowmelt floods in the Red River. Hydrological simulation also showed that the sediment and nutrient loads at the basin's outlet in the US and Canada border increased under the post-EISA land use scenario, on average sediment increasing by 2.6%, TP by 14.1%, nitrate nitrogen by 5.9%, and TN by 9.1%. Potential impacts of the future biofuel crop scenarios on watershed hydrology and water quality in the RRNB were also simulated through integrated economic-hydrologic modeling.

  14. Hydrologic and water-quality impacts of agricultural land use changes incurred from bioenergy policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Zhulu; Anar, Mohammad J.; Zheng, Haochi

    2015-06-01

    The US Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 has contributed to widespread changes in agricultural land uses. The impact of these land use changes on regional water resources could also be significant. Agricultural land use changes were evaluated for the Red River of the North Basin, an international river basin shared by the US and Canada. The influence of the land use change on spring snowmelt flooding and downstream water quality was also assessed using watershed modeling. The planting areas for corn and soybean in the basin increased by 62% and 18%, while those for spring wheat, forest, and pasture decreased by 30%, 18%, and 50%, from 2006 to 2013. Although the magnitude of spring snowmelt peak flows in the Red River did not change from pre-EISA to post-EISA, our uncertainty analysis of the normalized hydrographs revealed that the downstream streamflows had a greater variability under the post-EISA land use scenario, which may lead to greater uncertainty in predicting spring snowmelt floods in the Red River. Hydrological simulation also showed that the sediment and nutrient loads at the basin's outlet in the US and Canada border increased under the post-EISA land use scenario, on average sediment increasing by 2.6%, TP by 14.1%, nitrate nitrogen by 5.9%, and TN by 9.1%.

  15. Implications of agricultural land use change to ecosystem services in the Ganges delta.

    PubMed

    Islam, G M Tarekul; Islam, A K M Saiful; Shopan, Ahsan Azhar; Rahman, Md Munsur; Lázár, Attila N; Mukhopadhyay, Anirban

    2015-09-15

    Ecosystems provide the basis for human civilization and natural capital for green economy and sustainable development. Ecosystem services may range from crops, fish, freshwater to those that are harder to see such as erosion regulation, carbon sequestration, and pest control. Land use changes have been identified as the main sources of coastal and marine pollution in Bangladesh. This paper explores the temporal variation of agricultural land use change and its implications with ecosystem services in the Ganges delta. With time agricultural lands have been decreased and wetlands have been increased at a very high rate mainly due to the growing popularity of saltwater shrimp farming. In a span of 28 years, the agricultural lands have been reduced by approximately 50%, while the wetlands have been increased by over 500%. A large portion (nearly 40%) of the study area is covered by the Sundarbans which remained almost constant which can be attributed to the strict regulatory intervention to preserve the Sundarbans. The settlement & others land use type has also been increased to nearly 5%. There is a gradual uptrend of shrimp and fish production in the study area. The findings suggest that there are significant linkages between agricultural land use change and ecosystem services in the Ganges delta in Bangladesh. The continuous decline of agricultural land (due to salinization) and an increase of wetland have been attributed to the conversion of agricultural land into shrimp farming in the study area. Such land use change requires significant capital, therefore, only investors and wealthier land owners can get the higher profit from the land conversion while the poor people is left with the environmental consequences that affect their long-term lives and livelihood. An environmental management plan is proposed for sustainable land use in the Ganges delta in Bangladesh. PMID:25516384

  16. What Drives Indirect Land Use Change? How Brazil's Agriculture Sector Influences Frontier Deforestation

    PubMed Central

    Richards, Peter

    2015-01-01

    From 2000-2005 high returns to soybeans set off an unprecedented expansion of agricultural production across Brazil. The expansion occurred concurrently to a sharp rise in deforestation, leading academics and policy makers to question the extent and means by which the growing agricultural sector was driving regional forest loss. In this article we consider and question the underlying drivers of indirect land use change, namely the potential impact of soybean expansion on beef prices and of land use displacement, via migration. We then present field level results documenting the displacement process in northern Mato Grosso and western Pará States of the Amazon. Our results question the extent to which tropical Amazon deforestation is attributable to land use displacement; however, we argue that the agricultural sector may drive deforestation through other channels, namely through regional land markets. PMID:26985080

  17. Understanding the drivers of agricultural land use change in south-central Senegal

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, E. C.; Tappan, G. Gray; Hadj, Amadou

    2004-01-01

    Described is (1) the land use and land cover changes that have taken place in the Department of Velingara, an area of tropical dry woodland in south-central Senegal, (2) the biophysical and socio-economic drivers of those changes with an emphasis on transition to agricultural use, and (3) an assessment of the likelihood of intensification of agriculture in the Department. Results indicate that land devoted to agriculture, either in active cultivation or short-term fallow, is increasing. There is little evidence of agricultural intensification in most of Velingara, with extensification coming largely at the cost of reduction in both upland woodlands and riparian forest.

  18. The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed-scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, ...

  19. Linking carbon stock change from land-use change to consumption of agricultural products: Alternative perspectives.

    PubMed

    Goh, Chun Sheng; Wicke, Birka; Faaij, André; Bird, David Neil; Schwaiger, Hannes; Junginger, Martin

    2016-11-01

    Agricultural expansion driven by growing demand has been a key driver for carbon stock change as a consequence of land-use change (CSC-LUC). However, its relative role compared to non-agricultural and non-productive drivers, as well as propagating effects were not clearly addressed. This study contributed to this subject by providing alternative perspectives in addressing these missing links. A method was developed to allocate historical CSC-LUC to agricultural expansions by land classes (products), trade, and end use. The analysis for 1995-2010 leads to three key trends: (i) agricultural land degradation and abandonment is found to be a major (albeit indirect) driver for CSC-LUC, (ii) CSC-LUC is spurred by the growth of cross-border trade, (iii) non-food use (excluding liquid biofuels) has emerged as a significant contributor of CSC-LUC in the 2000's. In addition, the study demonstrated that exact values of CSC-LUC at a single spatio-temporal point may change significantly with different methodological settings. For example, CSC-LUC allocated to 'permanent oil crops' changed from 0.53 Pg C (billion tonne C) of carbon stock gain to 0.11 Pg C of carbon stock loss when spatial boundaries were changed from global to regional. Instead of comparing exact values for accounting purpose, key messages for policymaking were drawn from the main trends. Firstly, climate change mitigation efforts pursued through a territorial perspective may ignore indirect effects elsewhere triggered through trade linkages. Policies targeting specific commodities or types of consumption are also unable to quantitatively address indirect CSC-LUC effects because the quantification changes with different arbitrary methodological settings. Instead, it is recommended that mobilising non-productive or under-utilised lands for productive use should be targeted as a key solution to avoid direct and indirect CSC-LUC. PMID:27543749

  20. Modelling the effects of recent agricultural land use change on catchment flow and sediment generation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Escobar Ruiz, Veronica; Smith, Hugh; Blake, William

    2016-04-01

    Intensive agricultural practices can exacerbate runoff and soil erosion leading to detrimental impacts downstream. Physically-based models have previously been used to assess the impacts on flow and sediment transport in response to land use change, but there has been little investigation of the effect shorter-term changes linked to variations in the extent of cultivated land. The aim of this project is to quantify the impacts on flow generation and sediment transport of different catchment conditions related to both actual recent changes in agricultural land use as well as future change scenarios. To this end, a physically-based distributed hydrological model, SHETRAN was applied in the Blackwater catchment (12 km2) located in south-west England. Land cover was simulated on the basis of satellite-derived land cover maps (1990, 2000 and 2007) as well as a catchment-scale field survey (2011). Soils were represented in the model using five layers for five different soil types in which parameter values were varied in accordance with land use and literature values. Rainfall data (15 min) combined with monthly calculations of evapotranspiration using a simple temperature-based PE model were used to represent contemporary climatic conditions spanning 2010-2014. Calibration was undertaken for selected events during 2011 when land use information was concurrent with available flow and suspended sediment yield data. All land use simulations were then completed for the period 2010-2014 to enable the comparison of model outputs. This contribution will present preliminary results from these land use simulations alongside the effect of several future changes scenarios on catchment flow and sediment generation.

  1. Agricultural and urban land use change analysis in Changping County, Beijing, using remote sensing and GIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Meng; Huang, Xiaoxia; Li, Hongga; Li, Xia; Ming, An

    Urban growth is regarded as a necessary transitional stage for a sustainable economy, but uncontrolled or arbitrary urban growth rapidly consumes rural resources and causes environmental pollution, ecological deterioration. In this paper, we developed a remote sensing and GIS-based integrated approach to monitor and analyze agricultural and urban spatial land use and ecological landscape change characteristics. In the proposed approach, multi-temporal satellite images from 1995 to 2010 were selected and classified to obtain land cover and use spatial changes. And GIS was used to analyze variation tendency for land use and ecological landscape indices. Experiments were performed in the Changping County, north of Beijing to analyze rapid urbanization effects in the past two decades, especially during the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. The results indicate that there has been a notable urban growth and a visible loss about 38.8% in cropland, meanwhile dominated landscape structures and patterns have greatly changed from agriculture to urban in the study area.

  2. Spatially complex land change: The Indirect effect of Brazil's agricultural sector on land use in Amazonia.

    PubMed

    Richards, Peter D; Walker, Robert T; Arima, Eugenio Y

    2014-11-01

    Soybean farming has brought economic development to parts of South America, as well as environmental hopes and concerns. A substantial hope resides in the decoupling of Brazil's agricultural sector from deforestation in the Amazon region, in which case expansive agriculture need not imply forest degradation. However, concerns have also been voiced about the potential indirect effects of agriculture. This article addresses these indirect effects forthe case of the Brazilian Amazon since 2002. Our work finds that as much as thirty-two percent of deforestation, or the loss of more than 30,000 km(2) of Amazon forest, is attributable, indirectly, to Brazil's soybean sector. However, we also observe that the magnitude of the indirect impact of the agriculture sector on forest loss in the Amazon has declined markedly since 2006. We also find a shift in the underlying causes of indirect land use change in the Amazon, and suggest that land appreciation in agricultural regions has supplanted farm expansions as a source of indirect land use change. Our results are broadly congruent with recent work recognizing the success of policy changes in mitigating the impact of soybean expansion on forest loss in the Amazon. However, they also caution that the soybean sector may continue to incentivize land clearings through its impact on regional land markets. PMID:25492993

  3. Spatially complex land change: The Indirect effect of Brazil's agricultural sector on land use in Amazonia

    PubMed Central

    Richards, Peter D.; Walker, Robert T.; Arima, Eugenio Y.

    2014-01-01

    Soybean farming has brought economic development to parts of South America, as well as environmental hopes and concerns. A substantial hope resides in the decoupling of Brazil's agricultural sector from deforestation in the Amazon region, in which case expansive agriculture need not imply forest degradation. However, concerns have also been voiced about the potential indirect effects of agriculture. This article addresses these indirect effects forthe case of the Brazilian Amazon since 2002. Our work finds that as much as thirty-two percent of deforestation, or the loss of more than 30,000 km2 of Amazon forest, is attributable, indirectly, to Brazil's soybean sector. However, we also observe that the magnitude of the indirect impact of the agriculture sector on forest loss in the Amazon has declined markedly since 2006. We also find a shift in the underlying causes of indirect land use change in the Amazon, and suggest that land appreciation in agricultural regions has supplanted farm expansions as a source of indirect land use change. Our results are broadly congruent with recent work recognizing the success of policy changes in mitigating the impact of soybean expansion on forest loss in the Amazon. However, they also caution that the soybean sector may continue to incentivize land clearings through its impact on regional land markets. PMID:25492993

  4. Soil bacterial diversity changes in response to agricultural land use in semi-arid soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, Guo-Chun; Piceno, Yvette M.; Heuer, Holger; Weinert, Nicole; Dohrmann, Anja B.; Carrillo, Angel; Andersen, Gary L.; Castellanos, Thelma; Tebbe, Christoph C.; Smalla, Kornelia

    2013-04-01

    Natural scrublands in semi-arid deserts are increasingly being converted into agricultural lands. The long-term effect of such a transition in land use on soil bacterial communities was explored at two sites typical of semi-arid deserts in Mexico (Baja California). Comparisons were made between soil samples from alfalfa fields and the adjacent scrublands by two complementary methods - denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) and PhyloChip hybridization -employed to analyze 16S rRNA gene fragments amplified from total community DNA. DGGE analyses revealed significant effects of the transition on community composition of Bacteria, Actinobacteria, Alpha- and Betaproteobacteria at both sites. PhyloChip hybridization analysis uncovered that the transition negatively affected taxa such as Acidobacteria, Chloroflexi, Acidimicrobiales, Rubrobacterales, Deltaproteobacteria and Clostridia, while Alpha-, Beta- and Gammaproteobacteria, Bacteroidetes and Actinobacteria increased in abundance. The arable soils were lower in organic matter and phosphate concentration, and higher in salinity. Soil parameters that differed between land uses were highly correlated with the community composition of taxa responding to land use. Variation in the bacterial community composition was higher in soils from scrubland than from agriculture, as revealed by DGGE and PhyloChip analyses. The long term use for agriculture resulted in profound changes in the bacterial community composition and physicochemical characteristics of former scrublands, which may affect various soil ecosystem functions.

  5. Hydrological impacts of land-use change and agricultural policy in the Brazilian Cerrado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macedo, M.; Coe, M. T.; Soares-Filho, B.; Ferreira, L. G.; Panday, P. K.

    2013-12-01

    Land-use change and climate variability are two of the most important forces driving changes to the surface water and energy balance in tropical ecosystems. Our analysis combines satellite-derived data on rainfall (CRU), evapotranspiration (MOD16), soil water storage (GRACE), and land cover (MOD12Q1) to understand the effect of past (2000-2012) land cover changes and climate variability on the water balance of the Brazilian Cerrado (savannah woodlands). Based on these historical relationships, we examine potential future land-use transitions from native Cerrado to pasturelands and mechanized agriculture, using the Brazilian Water Agency's (ANA) 12th order watersheds as our unit of analysis. In the Cerrado, these watersheds constitute nearly 37,500 units (mean area ~5,400 ha) and serve as a useful proxy for property-level land-use decisions. Our future scenarios evaluate the potential ramifications of recent changes in the Brazilian Forest Code, which we estimate may allow for legal deforestation of an additional 40 × 2 million hectares of native Cerrado. Our analysis indicates that historical land-cover changes have already caused a significant decrease in evapotranspiration, leading to a three-fold increase in discharge in small watersheds and a nearly 25% increase in large river basins like the Tocantins-Araguaia. As global demand for agricultural commodities continues to rise, it is likely that large-scale conversion of the Cerrado will continue or accelerate in the coming decade. Our research suggests that the cumulative impact of such large-scale land cover change may shift the water balance sufficiently to alter regional precipitation and deplete groundwater stores. Future research will focus on understanding the potential feedbacks of these large-scale hydrological changes on regional climate and agricultural productivity.

  6. The potential and sustainability of agricultural land use in a changing ecosystem in southern Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hunziker, Matthias; Caviezel, Chatrina; Kuhn, Nikolaus J.

    2015-04-01

    Southern Greenland currently experiences an increase in summer temperatures and a prolonged growing season (Masson-Delmotte et al. 2012), resulting in an increased potential regarding agricultural land use. Subsequently, the agricultural sector is expected to grow. Thereby, a higher hay production and grazing capacity is pursued by applying more efficient farming practices (Greenland Agriculture Advisory Board 2009). However, agricultural potential at borderline ecotones is not only influenced by factors like temperature and growing season but also by other ecologic parameters. In addition, the intensification of land use in the fragile boreal - tundra border ecotone has various environmental impacts (Perren et al. 2012; Normand et al. 2013). Already the Norse settlers practiced animal husbandry in southern Greenland between 986-1450 AD. Several authors mention the unadapted land use as main reason for the demise of the Norse in Greenland, as grazing pressure exceeded the resilience of the landscape and pasture economy failed (Fredskild 1988; Perren et al. 2012). During the field work in summer 2014, we compared the pedologic properties of already used hay fields, grazed land, birch woodland and barren, unused land around Igaliku (South Greenland), in order to estimate the potential and the sustainability of the land use in southern Greenland. Beside physical soil properties, nutrient condition of the different land use types, the shrub woodland and barren areas was analyzed. The results of the study show that the most suitable areas for intensive agricultural activity are mostly occupied. Further on, the fields, which were used by the Norse, seem to be the most productive sites nowadays. Less productive hay fields are characterized by a higher coarse fraction, leading to a reduced ability to store water and to an unfavorable nutrient status. An intensification of the agricultural land use by applying fertilizer would lead to an increased environmental impact

  7. Agricultural land-use change in a Mexican oligotrophic desert depletes ecosystem stability

    PubMed Central

    Hernández-Becerra, Natali; Tapia-Torres, Yunuen; Beltrán-Paz, Ofelia; Blaz, Jazmín; Souza, Valeria

    2016-01-01

    Background Global demand for food has led to increased land-use change, particularly in dry land ecosystems, which has caused several environmental problems due to the soil degradation. In the Cuatro Cienegas Basin (CCB), alfalfa production irrigated by flooding impacts strongly on the soil. Methods In order to analyze the effect of such agricultural land-use change on soil nutrient dynamics and soil bacterial community composition, this work examined an agricultural gradient within the CCB which was comprised of a native desert grassland, a plot currently cultivated with alfalfa and a former agricultural field that had been abandoned for over 30 years. For each site, we analyzed C, N and P dynamic fractions, the activity of the enzyme phosphatase and the bacterial composition obtained using 16S rRNA clone libraries. Results The results showed that the cultivated site presented a greater availability of water and dissolved organic carbon, these conditions promoted mineralization processes mediated by heterotrophic microorganisms, while the abandoned land was limited by water and dissolved organic nitrogen. The low amount of dissolved organic matter promoted nitrification, which is mediated by autotrophic microorganisms. The microbial N immobilization process and specific phosphatase activity were both favored in the native grassland. As expected, differences in bacterial taxonomical composition were observed among sites. The abandoned site exhibited similar compositions than native grassland, while the cultivated site differed. Discussion The results suggest that the transformation of native grassland into agricultural land induces drastic changes in soil nutrient dynamics as well as in the bacterial community. However, with the absence of agricultural practices, some of the soil characteristics analyzed slowly recovers their natural state. PMID:27602304

  8. A comparison of forest and agricultural shallow groundwater chemical status a century after land use change.

    PubMed

    Kellner, Elliott; Hubbart, Jason A; Ikem, Abua

    2015-10-01

    Considering the increasing pace of global land use change and the importance of groundwater quality to humans and aquatic ecosystems, studies are needed that relate land use types to patterns of groundwater chemical composition. Piezometer grids were installed in a remnant bottomland hardwood forest (BHF) and a historic agricultural field (Ag) to compare groundwater chemical composition between sites with contrasting land use histories. Groundwater was sampled monthly from June 2011 to June 2013, and analyzed for 50 physiochemical metrics. Statistical tests indicated significant differences (p<0.05) between the study sites for 32 out of 50 parameters. Compared to the Ag site, BHF groundwater was characterized by significantly (p<0.05) lower pH, higher electrical conductivity, and higher concentrations of total dissolved solids and inorganic carbon. BHF groundwater contained significantly (p<0.05) higher concentrations of all nitrogen species except nitrate, which was higher in Ag groundwater. BHF groundwater contained significantly (p<0.05) higher concentrations of nutrients such as sulfur, potassium, magnesium, calcium, and sodium, relative to the Ag site. Ag groundwater was characterized by significantly (p<0.05) higher concentrations of trace elements such as arsenic, cadmium, cobalt, copper, molybdenum, nickel, and titanium. Comparison of shallow groundwater chemical composition with that of nearby receiving water suggests that subsurface concentration patterns are the result of contrasting site hydrology and vegetation. Results detail impacts of surface vegetation alteration on subsurface chemistry and groundwater quality, thereby illustrating land use impacts on the lithosphere and hydrosphere. This study is among the first to comprehensively characterize and compare shallow groundwater chemical composition at sites with contrasting land use histories. PMID:26005752

  9. Simulated carbon emissions from land-use change are substantially enhanced by accounting for agricultural management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pugh, T. A. M.; Arneth, A.; Olin, S.; Ahlström, A.; Bayer, A. D.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Lindeskog, M.; Schurgers, G.

    2015-12-01

    It is over three decades since a large terrestrial carbon sink (S T) was first reported. The magnitude of the net sink is now relatively well known, and its importance for dampening atmospheric CO2 accumulation, and hence climate change, widely recognised. But the contributions of underlying processes are not well defined, particularly the role of emissions from land-use change (E LUC) versus the biospheric carbon uptake (S L; S T = S L - E LUC). One key aspect of the interplay of E LUC and S L is the role of agricultural processes in land-use change emissions, which has not yet been clearly quantified at the global scale. Here we assess the effect of representing agricultural land management in a dynamic global vegetation model. Accounting for harvest, grazing and tillage resulted in cumulative E LUC since 1850 ca. 70% larger than in simulations ignoring these processes, but also changed the timescale over which these emissions occurred and led to underestimations of the carbon sequestered by possible future reforestation actions. The vast majority of Earth system models in the recent IPCC Fifth Assessment Report omit these processes, suggesting either an overestimation in their present-day S T, or an underestimation of S L, of up to 1.0 Pg C a-1. Management processes influencing crop productivity per se are important for food supply, but were found to have little influence on E LUC.

  10. US agricultural policy, land use change, and biofuels: are we driving our way to the next dust bowl?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, Christopher K.

    2015-05-01

    Lark et al (2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 044003), analyze recent shifts in US agricultural land use (2008-2012) using newly-available, high-resolution geospatial information, the Cropland Data Layer. Cropland expansion documented by Lark et al suggests the need to reform national agricultural policies in the wake of an emerging, new era of US agriculture characterized by rapid land cover/land use change.

  11. Land-use change affects water recycling in Brazil's last agricultural frontier.

    PubMed

    Spera, Stephanie A; Galford, Gillian L; Coe, Michael T; Macedo, Marcia N; Mustard, John F

    2016-10-01

    Historically, conservation-oriented research and policy in Brazil have focused on Amazon deforestation, but a majority of Brazil's deforestation and agricultural expansion has occurred in the neighboring Cerrado biome, a biodiversity hotspot comprised of dry forests, woodland savannas, and grasslands. Resilience of rainfed agriculture in both biomes likely depends on water recycling in undisturbed Cerrado vegetation; yet little is known about how changes in land-use and land-cover affect regional climate feedbacks in the Cerrado. We used remote sensing techniques to map land-use change across the Cerrado from 2003 to 2013. During this period, cropland agriculture more than doubled in area from 1.2 to 2.5 million ha, with 74% of new croplands sourced from previously intact Cerrado vegetation. We find that these changes have decreased the amount of water recycled to the atmosphere via evapotranspiration (ET) each year. In 2013 alone, cropland areas recycled 14 km(3) less (-3%) water than if the land cover had been native Cerrado vegetation. ET from single-cropping systems (e.g., soybeans) is less than from natural vegetation in all years, except in the months of January and February, the height of the growing season. In double-cropping systems (e.g., soybeans followed by corn), ET is similar to or greater than natural vegetation throughout a majority of the wet season (December-May). As intensification and extensification of agricultural production continue in the region, the impacts on the water cycle and opportunities for mitigation warrant consideration. For example, if an environmental goal is to minimize impacts on the water cycle, double cropping (intensification) might be emphasized over extensification to maintain a landscape that behaves more akin to the natural system. PMID:27028754

  12. Extreme temperature trends in major cropping systems and their relation to agricultural land use change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mueller, N. D.; Butler, E. E.; McKinnon, K. A.; Rhines, A. N.; Tingley, M.; Siebert, S.; Holbrook, N. M.; Huybers, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    High temperature extremes during the growing season can reduce agricultural production. At the same time, agricultural practices can modify temperatures by altering the surface energy budget. Here we investigate growing season climate trends in major cropping systems and their relationship with agricultural land use change. In the US Midwest, 100-year trends exhibit a transition towards more favorable conditions, with cooler summer temperature extremes and increased precipitation. Statistically significant correspondence is found between the cooling pattern and trends in cropland intensification, as well as with trends towards greater irrigated land over a small subset of the domain. Land conversion to cropland, often considered an important influence on historical temperatures, is not significantly associated with cooling. We suggest that cooling is primarily associated with agricultural intensification increasing the potential for evapotranspiration, consistent with our finding that cooling trends are greatest for the highest temperature percentiles, and that increased evapotranspiration generally leads to greater precipitation. Temperatures over rainfed croplands show no cooling trend during drought conditions, consistent with evapotranspiration requiring adequate soil moisture, and implying that modern drought events feature greater warming as baseline cooler temperatures revert to historically high extremes. Preliminary results indicate these relationships between temperature extremes, irrigation, and intensification are also observed in other major summer cropping systems, including northeast China, Argentina, and the Canadian Prairies.

  13. Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M.; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

    2016-09-01

    Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

  14. Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

    2016-09-01

    Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity. PMID:27372660

  15. Modelling economic and biophysical drivers of agricultural land-use change. Calibration and evaluation of the Nexus Land-Use model over 1961-2006

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Souty, F.; Dorin, B.; Brunelle, T.; Dumas, P.; Ciais, P.

    2013-12-01

    The central role of land-use change in the Earth System and its implications for food security, biodiversity and climate has spurred the development of global models that combine economical and agro-ecological drivers and constraints. With such a development of integrated approaches, evaluating the performance of global models of land-use against observed historical changes recorded by agricultural data becomes increasingly challenging. The Nexus Land-Use model is an example of land-use model integrating both biophysical and economical processes and constraints. This paper is an attempt to evaluate its ability to simulate historical agricultural land-use changes over 12 large but economically coherent regions of the world since 1961. The evaluation focuses on the intensification vs. extensification response of crop and livestock production in response to changes of socio-economic drivers over time, such as fertiliser price, population and diet. We examine how well the Nexus model can reproduce annual observation-based estimates of cropland vs. pasture areas from 1961 to 2006. Food trade, consumption of fertilisers and food price are also evaluated against historical data. Over the 12 regions considered, the total relative error on simulated cropland area is 2% yr-1 over 1980-2006. During the period 1961-2006, the error is larger (4% yr-1) due to an overestimation of the cropland area in China and Former Soviet Union over 1961-1980. Food prices tend to be underestimated while the performances of the trade module vary widely among regions (net imports are underestimated in Western countries at the expense of Brazil and Asia). Finally, a sensitivity analysis over a sample of input datasets provides some insights on the robustness of this evaluation.

  16. Changes in soil fungal communities across a landscape of agricultural soil land-uses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berthrong, S. T.; Buckley, D. H.; Drinkwater, L. E.

    2012-12-01

    Agricultural management is a major driver of changes in soils and their resident microbial communities, but we do not yet have a clear picture of how agriculture affects soil fungi. This is an important gap in our knowledge since fungi play an important role in many soil processes. Previous research has suggested that organic management practices can lead to an increase in soil fungal community diversity, which could have impacts on soil processes and alter the long term trajectory of soil quality in agricultural systems. Also, the relationship between management effects, biogeography, and soil fungi is not clear. The biogeography of macroscopic species is well described by taxa-area relationships and distance decay models, and recent research has suggested that certain subsets of fungi (e.g. AMF, litter sapotrophs) demonstrate similar patterns. However there is little information on how soil fungi as a whole are distributed across a landscape with soils under different managements. The goal of this project was to examine how different management practices alter soil fungal communities across a landscape of agricultural fields in upstate NY. We asked several specific questions: 1) Do different types of agricultural land-uses lead to divergent or convergent communities of soil fungi? 2) If soil type is held constant, do soil fungal communities diverge with geographic distance? 3) What are the major fungal groups that change in response to soil management, and are they cosmopolitan or endemic across the landscape? We studied these questions across agricultural fields in upstate NY that ranged from conventional corn, organic grains/corn, and long-term pasture. We sampled four fields (conventional, 10 and 20 year organic, and pasture) that had identical soils types and ranged from 100 m to 4 km apart. We utilized a multiplexed pyrosequencing approach on genomic DNA to analyze the structure of the soils' fungal communities. This approach allowed us to study soil fungi

  17. Spatial Modeling of Agricultural Land-Use Change at Global Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meiyappan, Prasanth; Dalton, Michael; O'Neill, Brian C.; Jain, Atul K.

    2013-12-01

    Land use is both a source and consequence of climate change. Long-term modeling of land use is central in global scale assessments using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to explore policy alternatives; especially because adaptation and mitigation of climate change requires long-term commitment. We present a land-use change modeling framework that can reproduce the past 100 years of evolution of global cropland and pastureland patterns to a reasonable accuracy. The novelty of our approach underlies in integrating knowledge from both the observed behavior and economic rationale behind land-use decisions, thereby making up for the intrinsic deficits in both the disciplines. The underlying economic rationale is profit maximization of individual landowners that implicitly reflects local-level decisions-making process at a larger scale. Observed behavior based on examining the relationships between contemporary land-use patterns and its socioeconomic and biophysical drivers, enters as an explicit factor into the economic framework. The land-use allocation is modified by autonomous developments and competition between land-use types. The framework accounts for spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions. The model is currently configured to downscale continental-scale aggregate land-use information to region specific changes in land-use patterns (0.5-deg spatial resolution). The temporal resolution is one year. The historical validation experiment is facilitated by synthesizing gridded maps of a wide range of potential biophysical and socioeconomic driving factors for the 20th century. To our knowledge, this is the first retrospective analysis that has been successful in reproducing the historical experience at a global scale. We apply the method to gain useful insights on two questions: (1) what are the dominant socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors of contemporary cropland and pastureland patterns, across geographic

  18. Estimating the effects of potential climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes of a large agriculture dominated watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neupane, Ram P.; Kumar, Sandeep

    2015-10-01

    Land use and climate are two major components that directly influence catchment hydrologic processes, and therefore better understanding of their effects is crucial for future land use planning and water resources management. We applied Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess the effects of potential land use change and climate variability on hydrologic processes of large agriculture dominated Big Sioux River (BSR) watershed located in North Central region of USA. Future climate change scenarios were simulated using average output of temperature and precipitation data derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B, and A2) for end-21st century. Land use change was modeled spatially based on historic long-term pattern of agricultural transformation in the basin, and included the expansion of corn (Zea mays L.) cultivation by 2, 5, and 10%. We estimated higher surface runoff in all land use scenarios with maximum increase of 4% while expanding 10% corn cultivation in the basin. Annual stream discharge was estimated higher with maximum increase of 72% in SRES-B1 attributed from higher groundwater contribution of 152% in the same scenario. We assessed increased precipitation during spring season but the summer precipitation decreased substantially in all climate change scenarios. Similar to decreased summer precipitation, discharge of the BSR also decreased potentially affecting agricultural production due to reduced future water availability during crop growing season in the basin. However, combined effects of potential land use change with climate variability enhanced for higher annual discharge of the BSR. Therefore, these estimations can be crucial for implications of future land use planning and water resources management of the basin.

  19. Out-migration and land-use change in agricultural frontiers: insights from Altamira settlement project

    PubMed Central

    D’Antona, Álvaro O.

    2012-01-01

    One of Daniel Hogan’s lasting impacts on international demography community comes through his advocacy for studying bidirectional relationships between environment and demography, particularly migration. We build on his holistic approach to mobility and examine dynamic changes in land use and migration among small farm families in Altamira, Pará, Brazil. We find that prior area in either pasture or perennials promotes out-migration of adult children, but that out-migration is not directly associated with land-use change. In contrast to early formulations of household life cycle models that argued that aging parents would decrease productive land use as children left the farm, we find no effect of out-migration of adult children on land-use change. Instead, remittances facilitate increases in area in perennials, a slower to pay off investment that requires scarce capital, but in pasture. While remittances are rare, they appear to permit sound investments in the rural milieu and thus to slow rural exodus and the potential consolidation of land into large holdings. We would do well to promote the conditions that allow them to be sent and to be used productively to keep families on the land to avoid the specter of extensive deforestation for pasture followed by land consolidation. PMID:23129878

  20. Out-migration and land-use change in agricultural frontiers: insights from Altamira settlement project.

    PubMed

    Vanwey, Leah K; Guedes, Gilvan R; D'Antona, Alvaro O

    2012-09-01

    One of Daniel Hogan's lasting impacts on international demography community comes through his advocacy for studying bidirectional relationships between environment and demography, particularly migration. We build on his holistic approach to mobility and examine dynamic changes in land use and migration among small farm families in Altamira, Pará, Brazil. We find that prior area in either pasture or perennials promotes out-migration of adult children, but that out-migration is not directly associated with land-use change. In contrast to early formulations of household life cycle models that argued that aging parents would decrease productive land use as children left the farm, we find no effect of out-migration of adult children on land-use change. Instead, remittances facilitate increases in area in perennials, a slower to pay off investment that requires scarce capital, but in pasture. While remittances are rare, they appear to permit sound investments in the rural milieu and thus to slow rural exodus and the potential consolidation of land into large holdings. We would do well to promote the conditions that allow them to be sent and to be used productively to keep families on the land to avoid the specter of extensive deforestation for pasture followed by land consolidation. PMID:23129878

  1. Impact of land-use induced changes on agricultural productivity in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Gui; Li, Zhaohua; Wang, Zhan; Chu, Xi; Li, Zhihui

    The water resource allocation is greatly influenced by the land use, agricultural productivity and farmers' income. Therefore analyzing the impacts of land use changes on agricultural productivity and subsequent effects on farmer's income is an important basis of the further study on the management mechanism and optimal water resource allocation. Taking the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin as the study area, this study examined the impacts of conversion from cultivated land to built-up land from 2000-2005 and 2005-2008. Then the agricultural productivity was estimated with the Estimation System for Agricultural Productivity model, and the changes in agricultural productivity caused by land conversion were analyzed. Thereafter, Simultaneous Equations Model was used to analyze the impacts of the conversion from cultivated land to built-up land on the agricultural productivity and subsequent effects on farmer's income. The results showed that: (1) The agricultural productivity was stable during the whole period, reaching about 2.84 ton/ha, 3.09 ton/ha and 2.80 ton/ha on average in 2000, 2005 and 2008, respectively, but the conversion from cultivated land to built-up land had important influence on the spatial pattern of agricultural productivity. (2) The land productivity, total power of agricultural machinery and the conversion from cultivated land to built-up land had an overall positive effect on the agricultural productivity. (3) The agricultural productivity and gross domestic product had positive influence on the farmers' income, while the cultivated land area per capita and percentage of farming employee had negative influence, indicating that the farmer's income was mainly contributed by non-agricultural income. These results in this study showed that optimal land use management can play an important role in promoting virtuous ecosystem cycle and sustainable socioeconomic development, which can also lay an important foundation for further research on the optimal

  2. Emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, land-use change, and forestry in the Gambia.

    PubMed

    Jallow, B P

    1995-01-01

    The Gambia has successfully completed a national greenhouse gas emissions inventory based on the results of a study funded by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)/Global Environment Facility (GEF) Country Case Study Program. The concepts of multisectoral, multidisciplinary, and interdisciplinary collaboration were most useful in the preparation of this inventory. New data were gathered during the study period, some through regional collaboration with institutions such as Environment and Development in the Third World (ENDA-TM) Energy Program and the Ecological Monitoring Center in Dakar, Senegal, and some through national surveys and the use of remote sensing techniques, as in the Bushfires Survey. Most of the data collected are used in this paper. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/International Energy Agency (IPCC/OECD/IEA) methodology is used to calculate greenhouse gas emissions. Many of the default data in the IPCC/OECD/IEA methodology have also been used. Overall results indicate that in the biomass sectors (agriculture, forestry, and land-use change) carbon dioxide (CO2) is emitted most, with a total of 1.7 Tg. This is followed by methane (CH4), 22.3 Gg; carbon monoxide (CO), 18.7 Gg; nitrogen oxides (NOx), 0.3 Gg; and nitrous oxide (N2O), 0.014 Gg. The Global Warming Potential (GWP) was used as an index to describe the relative effects of the various gases reported here. Based on the emissions in The Gambia in 1993, it was found that CO2 will contribute 75%, CH4 about 24.5%, and N2O 0.2% of the warming expected in the 100-year period beginning in 1993. The results in this analysis are limited by the shortcomings of the IPCC/OECD/IEA methodology and scarce national data. Because the methodology was developed outside of the developing world, most of its emissions factors and coefficients were developed and tested in environments that are very different from The Gambia. This is likely

  3. Agriculture, land use, and commercial biomass energy

    SciTech Connect

    Edmonds, J.A.; Wise, M.A.; Sands, R.D.; Brown, R.A.; Kheshgi, H.

    1996-06-01

    In this paper we have considered commercial biomass energy in the context of overall agriculture and land-use change. We have described a model of energy, agriculture, and land-use and employed that model to examine the implications of commercial biomass energy or both energy sector and land-use change carbon emissions. In general we find that the introduction of biomass energy has a negative effect on the extent of unmanaged ecosystems. Commercial biomass introduces a major new land use which raises land rental rates, and provides an incentive to bring more land into production, increasing the rate of incursion into unmanaged ecosystems. But while the emergence of a commercial biomass industry may increase land-use change emissions, the overall effect is strongly to reduce total anthropogenic carbon emissions. Further, the higher the rate of commercial biomass energy productivity, the lower net emissions. Higher commercial biomass energy productivity, while leading to higher land-use change emissions, has a far stronger effect on fossil fuel carbon emissions. Highly productive and inexpensive commercial biomass energy technologies appear to have a substantial depressing effect on total anthropogenic carbon emissions, though their introduction raises the rental rate on land, providing incentives for greater rates of deforestation than in the reference case.

  4. Analysis of Agricultural Land Use Change in the Middle Reach of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

    PubMed Central

    Fu, Li; Zhang, Lanhui; He, Chansheng

    2014-01-01

    The Heihe River Basin (HRB) is the second largest inland river basin in arid Northwest China. The expanding agricultural irrigation, growing industrialization, and increasing urban development in the middle reach have depleted much of the river flow to the lower reach, degrading the corresponding ecosystems. Since the enactment of the State Council of China’s new HRB water allocation policy in 2000 tremendous land use and land cover (LULC) changes have taken place to reduce water consumption in the middle reach and deliver more water downstream. This paper analyzes LULC changes during the period of 2000–2009 to understand how the changing land use patterns have altered water resource dynamics in the region. Results, while yet to be further verified in the field, show that from 2000 to 2009, urban, agricultural land, rangeland, and forest areas have increased, and barren area has decreased. Within the cropland, rice (a high water consumption crop) planting area decreased, while corn and wheat (relatively lower water consumption crops) planting areas increased. These changes in land use patterns, especially in the agricultural zones, have ensured the discharge of the required amount of water to the lower reach. PMID:24599043

  5. Alterations of hydraulic soil properties influenced by land-use changes and agricultural management systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weninger, Thomas; Kreiselmeier, Janis; Chandrasekhar, Parvathy; Jülich, Stefan; Schwärzel, Kai; Schwen, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    Estimation and modeling of soil water movement and the hydrologic balance of soils requires sound knowledge about hydraulic soil properties (HSP). The soil water characteristics, the hydraulic conductivity function and the pore size distribution (PSD) are commonly used instruments for the mathematical representation of HSP. Recent research highlighted the temporal variability of these functions caused by meteorological or land-use influences. State of the art modeling software for the continuous simulation of soil water movement uses a stationary approach for the HSP which means that their time dependent alterations and the subsequent effects on soil water balance is not considered. Mathematical approaches to describe the evolution of PSD are nevertheless known, but there is a lack of sound data basis for parameter estimation. Based on extensive field and laboratory measurements at 5 locations along a climatic gradient across Austria and Germany, this study will quantify short-term changes in HSP, detect driving forces and introduce a method to predict the effects of soil and land management actions on the soil water balance. Amongst several soil properties, field-saturated and unsaturated hydraulic conductivities will be determined using a hood infiltration experiments in the field as well as by evaporation and dewpoint potentiometer method in the lab. All measurements will be carried out multiple times over a span of 2 years which will allow a detailed monitoring of changes in HSP. Experimental sites where we expect significant inter-seasonal changes will be equipped with sensors for soil moisture and matric potential. The choice of experimental field sites follows the intention to involve especially the effects of tillage operations, different cultivation strategies, microclimatically effective structures and land-use changes. The international project enables the coverage of a broad range of soil types as well as climate conditions and hence will have broad

  6. Land Use and Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Irwin, Daniel E.

    2004-01-01

    The overall purpose of this training session is to familiarize Central American project cooperators with the remote sensing and image processing research that is being conducted by the NASA research team and to acquaint them with the data products being produced in the areas of Land Cover and Land Use Change and carbon modeling under the NASA SERVIR project. The training session, therefore, will be both informative and practical in nature. Specifically, the course will focus on the physics of remote sensing, various satellite and airborne sensors (Landsat, MODIS, IKONOS, Star-3i), processing techniques, and commercial off the shelf image processing software.

  7. Climate and agricultural land use change impacts on streamflow in the upper midwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, Satish C.; Kessler, Andrew C.; Brown, Melinda K.; Zvomuya, Francis

    2015-07-01

    Increased streamflow and its associated impacts on water quality have frequently been linked to changes in land use and land cover (LULC) such as tile drainage, cultivation of prairies, and increased adoption of soybeans (Glycine max) in modern day cropping systems. This study evaluated the relative importance of changes in precipitation and LULC on streamflow in 29 Hydrologic Unit Code 008 watersheds in the upper midwestern United States. The evaluation was done by statistically testing the changes in slope and intercept of the relationships between ln(annual streamflow) versus annual precipitation for the periods prior to 1975 (prechange period) and after 1976 (postchange period). A significant shift either in slope or intercept of these relationships was assumed to be an indication of LULC changes whereas a lack of significant shift suggested a single relationship driven by precipitation. All 29 watersheds showed no statistical difference in slope or intercept of the relationships between the two periods. However, a simpler model that kept the slope constant for the two periods showed a slight upward shift in the intercept value for 10 watersheds in the postchange period. A comparison of 5 year moving averages also revealed that the increased streamflows in the postchange period are mainly due to an increase in precipitation. Minimal or the lack of LULC change impact on streamflow results from comparable evapotranspiration in the two time periods. We also show how incorrect assumptions in previously published studies minimized precipitation change impacts and heightened the LULC change impacts on streamflows.

  8. The impact of agricultural intensification and land-use change on the European arable flora

    PubMed Central

    Storkey, J.; Meyer, S.; Still, K. S.; Leuschner, C.

    2012-01-01

    The impact of crop management and agricultural land use on the threat status of plants adapted to arable habitats was analysed using data from Red Lists of vascular plants assessed by national experts from 29 European countries. There was a positive relationship between national wheat yields and the numbers of rare, threatened or recently extinct arable plant species in each country. Variance in the relative proportions of species in different threat categories was significantly explained using a combination of fertilizer and herbicide use, with a greater percentage of the variance partitioned to fertilizers. Specialist species adapted to individual crops, such as flax, are among the most threatened. These species have declined across Europe in response to a reduction in the area grown for the crops on which they rely. The increased use of agro-chemicals, especially in central and northwestern Europe, has selected against a larger group of species adapted to habitats with intermediate fertility. There is an urgent need to implement successful conservation strategies to arrest the decline of this functionally distinct and increasingly threatened component of the European flora. PMID:21993499

  9. Land cover, land use, and climate change impacts on agriculture in southern Vietnam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kontgis, Caitlin

    Global environmental change is rapidly changing the surface of the Earth in varied and irrevocable ways. Across the world, land cover and land use have been altered to accommodate the needs of expanding populations, and climate change has required plant, animal, and human communities to adapt to novel climates. These changes have created unprecedented new ecosystems that affect the planet in ways that are not fully understood and difficult to predict. Of utmost concern is food security, and whether agro-ecosystems will adapt and respond to widespread changes so that growing global populations can be sustained. To understand how one staple food crop, rice, responds to global environmental change in southern Vietnam, this dissertation aims to accomplish three main tasks: (1) quantify the rate and form of urban and peri-urban expansion onto cropland using satellite imagery and demographic data, (2) track changes to annual rice paddy harvests using time series satellite data, and (3) model the potential effects of climate change on rice paddies by incorporating farmer interview data into a crop systems model. The results of these analyses show that the footprint of Ho Chi Minh City grew nearly five times between 1990 and 2012. Mismatches between urban development and population growth suggest that peri-urbanization is driven by supply-side investment, and that much of this form of land expansion has occurred near major transit routes. In the nearby Mekong River Delta, triple-cropped rice paddy area doubled between 2000 and 2010, from one-third to two-thirds of rice fields, while paddy area expanded by about 10%. These results illustrate the intensification of farming practices since Vietnam liberalized its economy, yet it is not clear whether such practices are environmentally sustainable long-term. Although triple-cropped paddy fields have expanded, future overall production is estimated to decline without the effects of CO2 fertilization. Temperatures are anticipated

  10. Adapting the Biome-BGC Model to New Zealand Pastoral Agriculture: Climate Change and Land-Use Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.

    2011-12-01

    We have adapted the Biome-BGC model to make climate change and land-use scenario estimates of New Zealand's pasture production in 2020 and 2050, with comparison to a 2005 baseline. We take an integrated modelling approach with the aim of enabling the model's use for policy assessments across broadly related issues such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, land-use change, and greenhouse gas projections. The Biome-BGC model is a biogeochemical model that simulates carbon, water, and nitrogen cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. We introduce two new 'ecosystems', sheep/beef and dairy pasture, within the existing structure of the Biome-BGC model and calibrate its ecophysiological parameters against pasture clipping data from diverse sites around New Zealand to form a baseline estimate of total New Zealand pasture production. Using downscaled AR4 climate projections, we construct mid- and upper-range climate change scenarios in 2020 and 2050. We produce land-use change scenarios in the same years by combining the Biome-BGC model with the Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model. The LURNZ model uses econometric approaches to predict future land-use change driven by changes in net profits driven by expected pricing, including the introduction of an emission trading system. We estimate the relative change in national pasture production from our 2005 baseline levels for both sheep/beef and dairy systems under each scenario.

  11. Detecting agricultural to urban land use change from multi-temporal MSS digital data. [Salt Lake County, Utah

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ridd, M. K.; Merola, J. A.; Jaynes, R. A.

    1983-01-01

    Conversion of agricultural land to a variety of urban uses is a major problem along the Wasatch Front, Utah. Although LANDSAT MSS data is a relatively coarse tool for discriminating categories of change in urban-size plots, its availability prompts a thorough test of its power to detect change. The procedures being applied to a test area in Salt Lake County, Utah, where the land conversion problem is acute are presented. The identity of land uses before and after conversion was determined and digital procedures for doing so were compared. Several algorithms were compared, utilizing both raw data and preprocessed data. Verification of results involved high quality color infrared photography and field observation. Two data sets were digitally registered, specific change categories internally identified in the software, results tabulated by computer, and change maps printed at 1:24,000 scale.

  12. Water Quality Response to Changes in Agricultural Land Use Practices at Headwater Streams in Georgia

    EPA Science Inventory

    Poorly managed agricultural watersheds may be one of the most important contributors to high levels of bacterial and sediment loadings in surface waters. We investigated two cattle farms with differing management schemes to compare how physicochemical and meteorological parameter...

  13. Agriculture and land use issues

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Large-scale biofuels development as a source of renewable energy will shift current dynamics in the agricultural sector that deliver food, feed, and fiber. This chapter examines the potential for modern agriculture to support a biofuels industry without comprimising its critical role for delivering ...

  14. Hotspots of land use change in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuemmerle, Tobias; Levers, Christian; Erb, Karlheinz; Estel, Stephan; Jepsen, Martin R.; Müller, Daniel; Plutzar, Christoph; Stürck, Julia; Verkerk, Pieter J.; Verburg, Peter H.; Reenberg, Anette

    2016-06-01

    Assessing changes in the extent and management intensity of land use is crucial to understanding land-system dynamics and their environmental and social outcomes. Yet, changes in the spatial patterns of land management intensity, and thus how they might relate to changes in the extent of land uses, remains unclear for many world regions. We compiled and analyzed high-resolution, spatially-explicit land-use change indicators capturing changes in both the extent and management intensity of cropland, grazing land, forests, and urban areas for all of Europe for the period 1990–2006. Based on these indicators, we identified hotspots of change and explored the spatial concordance of area versus intensity changes. We found a clear East–West divide with regard to agriculture, with stronger cropland declines and lower management intensity in the East compared to the West. Yet, these patterns were not uniform and diverging patterns of intensification in areas highly suitable for farming, and disintensification and cropland contraction in more marginal areas emerged. Despite the moderate overall rates of change, many regions in Europe fell into at least one land-use change hotspot during 1990–2006, often related to a spatial reorganization of land use (i.e., co-occurring area decline and intensification or co-occurring area increase and disintensification). Our analyses highlighted the diverse spatial patterns and heterogeneity of land-use changes in Europe, and the importance of jointly considering changes in the extent and management intensity of land use, as well as feedbacks among land-use sectors. Given this spatial differentiation of land-use change, and thus its environmental impacts, spatially-explicit assessments of land-use dynamics are important for context-specific, regionalized land-use policy making.

  15. Mapping Agricultural Land-Use Change in the U.S. 2008-2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lark, T.; Salmon, M.; Gibbs, H.

    2014-12-01

    Cultivation of corn and soybeans in the United States reached record levels following the biofuels boom of the late 2000s. Debate churns about whether expansion of these crops caused conversion of carbon-rich natural ecosystems or instead replaced other crops on existing fields. Here we describe a novel trajectory-based methodology for analyzing satellite-derived land cover products that enables integration of all available and intermediate-year data to improve consistency across data sources, time, and geographic boundaries. Using this approach, we track crop-specific expansion pathways across the conterminous U.S., 2008-2012, and identify the types, amount, and locations of all land converted to and from cropland. We find total cropland area increased by a net of 3 million acres over the study period, with gross land conversion to cropland 2.5 times greater than net expansion. Grasslands were the source of 77% of all new cropland, and we estimate 1.6 million acres (22%) were virgin grasslands that had not been previously planted or plowed. Corn was the most common crop planted directly on new land, as well as the largest indirect contributor to change through its displacement of other crops. Results identify holes in federal policies including improper enforcement of the Renewable Fuels Standard and insufficient coverage of recent Farm Bill provisions, suggesting current implementations of federal policies are likely insufficient to protect remaining grassland habitat.

  16. Modeling land-use change

    SciTech Connect

    1995-12-31

    Tropical land-use change is generally considered to be the greatest net contributor of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere after fossil-fuel burning. However, estimates vary widely, with one major cause of variation being that terrestrial ecosystems are both a source and a sink for carbon. This article describes two spatially explicit models which simulate rates and patterns of tropical land-use change: GEOMOD1, based on intuitive assumptions about how people develop land over time, and GEOMOD2, based on a statistical analysis of how people have actually used the land. The models more closely estimate the connections between atmospheric carbon dioxide, deforestation, and other land use changes.

  17. A method for calculating a land-use change carbon footprint (LUC-CFP) for agricultural commodities - applications to Brazilian beef and soy, Indonesian palm oil.

    PubMed

    Persson, U Martin; Henders, Sabine; Cederberg, Christel

    2014-11-01

    The world's agricultural system has come under increasing scrutiny recently as an important driver of global climate change, creating a demand for indicators that estimate the climatic impacts of agricultural commodities. Such carbon footprints, however, have in most cases excluded emissions from land-use change and the proposed methodologies for including this significant emissions source suffer from different shortcomings. Here, we propose a new methodology for calculating land-use change carbon footprints for agricultural commodities and illustrate this methodology by applying it to three of the most prominent agricultural commodities driving tropical deforestation: Brazilian beef and soybeans, and Indonesian palm oil. We estimate land-use change carbon footprints in 2010 to be 66 tCO2 /t meat (carcass weight) for Brazilian beef, 0.89 tCO2 /t for Brazilian soybeans, and 7.5 tCO2 /t for Indonesian palm oil, using a 10 year amortization period. The main advantage of the proposed methodology is its flexibility: it can be applied in a tiered approach, using detailed data where it is available while still allowing for estimation of footprints for a broad set of countries and agricultural commodities; it can be applied at different scales, estimating both national and subnational footprints; it can be adopted to account both for direct (proximate) and indirect drivers of land-use change. It is argued that with an increasing commercialization and globalization of the drivers of land-use change, the proposed carbon footprint methodology could help leverage the power needed to alter environmentally destructive land-use practices within the global agricultural system by providing a tool for assessing the environmental impacts of production, thereby informing consumers about the impacts of consumption and incentivizing producers to become more environmentally responsible. PMID:24838193

  18. Impacts of land use change in soil carbon and nitrogen in a Mediterranean agricultural area (Southern Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parras-Alcántara, L.; Martín-Carrillo, M.; Lozano-García, B.

    2013-05-01

    The agricultural Mediterranean areas are dedicated to arable crops (AC), but in the last decades, a significant number of AC has led to a land use change (LUC) to olive grove (OG) and vineyards (V). A field study was conducted to determine the long-term effects (46 years) of LUC (AC by OG and V) and to determine soil organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen (TN), C : N ratio and their stratification across the soil entire profile, in Montilla-Moriles denomination of origin (D.O.), in Calcic-Chromic Luvisols (LVcc/cr), an area under semiarid Mediterranean conditions. The experimental design consisted of studying the LUC on one farm between 1965 and 2011. Originally, only AC was farmed in 1965, but OG and V were farmed up to now (2011). This LUC principally affected the horizon thickness, texture, bulk density, pH, organic matter, organic carbon, total nitrogen and C : N ratio. The LUC had a negative impact in the soil, affecting the SOC and TN stocks. The conversion from AC to V and OG involved the loss of the SOC stock (52.7% and 64.9% to V and OG respectively) and the loss of the TN stock (42.6% and 38.1% to V and OG respectively). With respect to the stratification ratios (SRs), the effects were opposite; 46 years after LUC increased the SRs (in V and OG) of SOC, TN and C : N ratio.

  19. Effects of institutional changes on land use: agricultural land abandonment during the transition from state-command to market-driven economies in post-Soviet Eastern Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prishchepov, Alexander V.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Baumann, Matthias; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Müller, Daniel

    2012-06-01

    Institutional settings play a key role in shaping land cover and land use. Our goal was to understand the effects of institutional changes on agricultural land abandonment in different countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union after the collapse of socialism. We studied ˜273 800 km2 (eight Landsat footprints) within one agro-ecological zone stretching across Poland, Belarus, Latvia, Lithuania and European Russia. Multi-seasonal Landsat TM/ETM + satellite images centered on 1990 (the end of socialism) and 2000 (one decade after the end of socialism) were used to classify agricultural land abandonment using support vector machines. The results revealed marked differences in the abandonment rates between countries. The highest rates of land abandonment were observed in Latvia (42% of all agricultural land in 1990 was abandoned by 2000), followed by Russia (31%), Lithuania (28%), Poland (14%) and Belarus (13%). Cross-border comparisons revealed striking differences; for example, in the Belarus-Russia cross-border area there was a great difference between the rates of abandonment of the two countries (10% versus 47% of abandonment). Our results highlight the importance of institutions and policies for land-use trajectories and demonstrate that radically different combinations of institutional change of strong institutions during the transition can reduce the rate of agricultural land abandonment (e.g., in Belarus and in Poland). Inversely, our results demonstrate higher abandonment rates for countries where the institutions that regulate land use changed and where the institutions took more time to establish (e.g., Latvia, Lithuania and Russia). Better knowledge regarding the effects of such broad-scale change is essential for understanding land-use change and for designing effective land-use policies. This information is particularly relevant for Northern Eurasia, where rapid land-use change offers vast opportunities for carbon balance and biodiversity

  20. Land Use Change In Australia's Tropical Savanna Woodlands: Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Deforestation And Conversion To Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hutley, L. B.; Bristow, M.; Beringer, J.; Livesley, S. L.; Arndt, S. K.

    2015-12-01

    Clearing and burning of tropical savanna leads to globally significant emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), although there is large uncertainty relating to the magnitude of this flux. Australia's tropical savannas are 12% of global savanna extent and are largely intact; however there is currently a focus on agricultural expansion across northern Australia involving clearing for primary production. Eddy covariance and soil chamber methods were used over almost 2 years to quantify CO2 and non-CO2 fluxes from savanna that was cleared and prepared for agriculture (CS). Fluxes from an uncleared site (UC) were also monitored. Carbon fluxes from both sites were similar (NEE -0.23 Mg C ha-1 month-1) for the 5.4 months prior to clearing, a period spanning the late dry to mid-wet season. Fluxes were monitored for a further 17 months through a dry-wet-dry climate cycle and phased land use change which included clearing and a debris curing phase, followed by burning and soil preparation for cropping. Over this period (excluding the managed fire), the CS site was a source of +0.43 Mg C ha-1 month-1 compared to a net sink at the UC site of -0.05 Mg C ha-1 month-1. Woody debris from clearing (30.9 Mg C ha-1) was removed from the site via burning in the late dry season and emission factors were used to calculate emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O which totalled 138.0 Mg CO2-e ha-1. Over the 17 months of monitoring this land transformation, emissions were +9.7 Mg CO2-e ha-1 month-1 compared to a sink of -0.17 Mg CO2-e from the UC site. Using these emissions and LUC scenarios at catchment to regional scales suggest proposed clearing for agriculture could significantly increase the region's fire-dominated GHG emissions. These data are essential for both land-atmosphere models as well as decision support tools that inform trade-offs between greenhouse gas accounting, conservation and development goals.

  1. Biodiversity evaluation in tropical agricultural systems - How will rubber cultivation and land use change effect species diversity in SW China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cotter, M.; Grenz, J.; Sauerborn, J.

    2012-04-01

    The Greater Mekong Subregion is a known hotspot of biodiversity, which faces drastic changes due to human impact particularly with regard to infrastructure and economy. Within the framework of the Sino-German research project "Living Landscapes China" (LILAC), we have developed a biodiversity evaluation tool based on the combination of approaches from landscape ecology with detailed empirical data on species diversity and habitat characteristics of tropical plant and arthropod communities in a Geographical Information System. We use field ecological data to assess different spatial and qualitative aspects of the diversity and spatial distribution of species throughout the research area, a watershed in south-western Yunnan province, PR China. In addition, scenarios on the impact of land use change have been analyzed and compared in order to highlight the implications these possible future scenarios would have on species diversity within the research area. The aim of the presented tool is to provide scientists and policy makers who have to evaluate the consequences of scenarios of future land use with information on the current and likely future state of biodiversity in their research area or administrative region. This will enable them to assess the likely impacts of land use changes on structural and ecological diversity and allow for informed land use planning. The methodology developed for this tool can also be applied outside of the Greater Mekong Subregion, as the model structure allows for an easy adaption to other research areas and challenges, be it oil palm production in Southeast Asia or small scale farming in central Africa or the Amazon basin.

  2. Aspects of agricultural land use in Ireland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, J.

    1986-02-01

    Ireland's soil regions consist largely of Luvisols, Cambisols, and Gleysols. Approximately 60% of Ireland's land area is subject to varying degrees of soil limitations. Twenty-five percent of the land area comprises wet lowland mineral soils. Ninety percent of Ireland's agricultural area comprises pasture, hay, and silage. Approximately 30% of the agricultural area is devoted to dairying, and 55% to cattle production. is devoted to dairying, and 55% to cattle production. Trends in agricultural land use indicate that tillage declined substantially while livestock showed a substantial increase particularly in the decade 1965 1975. Research concludes that over 2.8 million ha has a capacity to carry at least 100 LU/40 ha (100 acres). Levels of fertilizer use in Ireland are below EEC levels. The highest fertilizer use levels are associated with the eastern and southern areas of Ireland. Tillage crops occupy only 10% of the agricultural area, while they account for 26% of tertilizer and lime use.

  3. Occurrence and distribution of heavy metals and tetracyclines in agricultural soils after typical land use change in east China.

    PubMed

    Wu, Longhhua; Pan, Xia; Chen, Like; Huang, Yujuan; Teng, Ying; Luo, Yongming; Christie, Peter

    2013-12-01

    Land use in east China tends to change from paddy rice to vegetables or other high-value cash crops, resulting in high input rates of organic manures and increased risk of contamination with both heavy metals (HMs) and antibiotics. This investigation was conducted to determine the accumulation, distribution and risks of HMs and tetracyclines (TCs) in surface soils and profiles receiving different amounts of farmyard manure. Soil samples collected from suburbs of Hangzhou city, Zhejiang province were introduced to represent three types of land use change from paddy rice to asparagus production, vineyards and field mustard cultivation, and divided into two portions, one of which was air-dried and sieved through 2-, 0.3- and 0.149-mm nylon mesh for determination of pH and heavy metals. The other portion was frozen at -20 °C, freeze-dried and sieved through a 0.3-mm nylon mesh for tetracyline determination. HM and TC concentrations in surface soils of 14-year-old mustard fields were the highest with total Cu, Zn, Cd and ∑TCs of 50.5, 196, 1.03 mg kg(-1) and 22.9 μg kg(-1), respectively, on average. The total Cu sequence was field mustard>vineyards>asparagus when duration of land use change was considered; oxytetracycline (OTC) and doxycycline were dominant in soils used for asparagus production; OTC was dominant in vineyards and chlortetracycline (CTC) was dominant in mustard soils. There were positive pollution relationships among Cu, Zn and ∑TCs, especially between Cu and Zn or Cu and ∑TCs. Repeated and excessive application of manures from intensive farming systems may produce combined contamination with HMs and TCs which were found in the top 20 cm of the arable soil profiles and also extended to 20-40 cm depth. Increasing manure application rate and cultivation time led to continuing increases in residue concentrations and movement down the soil profile. PMID:23407929

  4. LCLUC as an entry point for transdisciplinary research--reflections from an agriculture land use change study in South Asia.

    PubMed

    Nagabhatla, Nidhi; Padmanabhan, Martina; Kühle, Peter; Vishnudas, Suma; Betz, Lydia; Niemeyer, Bastian

    2015-01-15

    This article highlights applied understanding of classifying earth imaging data for land cover land use change (LCLUC) information. Compared to the many previous studies of LCLUC, the present study is innovative in that it applied geospatial data, tools and techniques for transdisciplinary research. It contributes to a wider discourse on practical decision making for multi-level governance. Undertaken as part of the BioDIVA project, the research adopted a multi-tiered methodical approach across three key dimensions: socioecology as the sphere of interest, a transdisciplinary approach as the disciplinary framework, and geospatial analysis as the applied methodology. The area of interest was the agroecosystem of Wayanad district in Kerala, India (South Asia). The methodology was structured to enable analysis of multi-scalar and multi-temporal data, using Wayanad as a case study. Three levels of analysis included: District (Landsat TM-30m), Taluk or sub-district (ASTER-15m) and Village or Gram Panchayat (GeoEye-0.5m). Our hypothesis, that analyzing patterns of land use change is pertinent for up-to-date assessment of agroecosystem resources and their wise management is supported by the outcome of the multi-tiered geospatial analysis. In addition, two examples from the project that highlight the adoption of LCLUC by different disciplinary experts are presented. A sociologist assessed the land ownership boundary for a selected tribal community. A faunal ecologist used it to assess the effect of landscape structure on arthropods and plant groups in rice fields. Furthermore, the Google Earth interface was used to support the overall validation process. Our key conclusion was that a multi-level understanding of the causes, effects, processes and mechanisms that govern agroecosystem transformation requires close attention to spatial, temporal and seasonal dynamics, for which the incorporation of local knowledge and participation of local communities is crucial. PMID

  5. Land use change and human health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patz, Jonathan A.; Norris, Douglas E.

    Disease emergence events have been documented following several types of land use change. This chapter reviews several health-relevant land use changes recognized today, including: 1) urbanization and urban sprawl; 2) water projects and agricultural development; 3) road construction and deforestation in the tropics; and 4) regeneration of temperate forests. Because habitat or climatic change substantially affects intermediate invertebrate hosts involved in many prevalent diseases, this chapter provides a basic description of vector-borne disease biology as a foundation for analyzing the effects of land use change. Urban sprawl poses health challenges stemming from heat waves exacerbated by the "urban heat island" effect, as well as from water contamination due to expanses of impervious road and concrete surfaces. Dams, irrigation and agricultural development have long been associated with diseases such as schistosomiasis and filariasis. Better management methods are required to address the trade-offs between expanded food production and altered habitats promoting deadly diseases. Deforestation can increase the nature and number of breeding sites for vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and onchocerciasis. Human host and disease vector interaction further increases risk, as can a change in arthropod-vector species composition.

  6. Changes of Soil Bacterial Diversity as a Consequence of Agricultural Land Use in a Semi-Arid Ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Ding, Guo-Chun; Piceno, Yvette M.; Heuer, Holger; Weinert, Nicole; Dohrmann, Anja B.; Carrillo, Angel; Andersen, Gary L.; Castellanos, Thelma; Tebbe, Christoph C.; Smalla, Kornelia

    2013-01-01

    Natural scrublands in semi-arid deserts are increasingly being converted into fields. This results in losses of characteristic flora and fauna, and may also affect microbial diversity. In the present study, the long-term effect (50 years) of such a transition on soil bacterial communities was explored at two sites typical of semi-arid deserts. Comparisons were made between soil samples from alfalfa fields and the adjacent scrublands by two complementary methods based on 16S rRNA gene fragments amplified from total community DNA. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) analyses revealed significant effects of the transition on community composition of Bacteria, Actinobacteria, Alpha- and Betaproteobacteria at both sites. PhyloChip hybridization analysis uncovered that the transition negatively affected taxa such as Acidobacteria, Chloroflexi, Acidimicrobiales, Rubrobacterales, Deltaproteobacteria and Clostridia, while Alpha-, Beta- and Gammaproteobacteria, Bacteroidetes and Actinobacteria increased in abundance. Redundancy analysis suggested that the community composition of phyla responding to agricultural use (except for Spirochaetes) correlated with soil parameters that were significantly different between the agricultural and scrubland soil. The arable soils were lower in organic matter and phosphate concentration, and higher in salinity. The variation in the bacterial community composition was higher in soils from scrubland than from agriculture, as revealed by DGGE and PhyloChip analyses, suggesting reduced beta diversity due to agricultural practices. The long-term use for agriculture resulted in profound changes in the bacterial community and physicochemical characteristics of former scrublands, which may irreversibly affect the natural soil ecosystem. PMID:23527207

  7. Assessing bioenergy-driven agricultural land use change and biomass quantities in the U.S. Midwest with MODIS time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Cuizhen; Zhong, Cheng; Yang, Zhengwei

    2014-01-01

    Bioenergy land use is expanding today as biofuel is consuming higher amount of agricultural production. In 2007, a widespread expansion of corn planting areas was recorded in the United States Department of Agriculture crop census. To better document the corn-related land use change, this study mapped the spatial distributions of four major annual crops (corn, soybean, winter wheat, and spring wheat) and three perennial crops (shortgrass, warm-season tallgrass, and cool-season tallgrass) in the Midwest. From 2006 to 2008, the 8-day, 500-m moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance products were used to retrieve the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) composites. A support vector machine classifier was applied to identify these crops based on their unique growth cycles reflected from NDVI trajectories. The results showed a net increase of 15% of corn fields in 2007 accompanied by a net decrease of 16% in 2008. With the season-long integrated NDVI, this study also explored the geographic context and biomass proxy of native perennial grasses, an important feedstock of cellulosic biofuel. Mostly growing in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas, their biomass quantities increased from west to east. This study indicates that frequent satellite observations may provide an efficient tool for monitoring biomass supplies and land use changes to assist national bioenergy decision-making.

  8. Agricultural Land Use classification from Envisat MERIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brodsky, L.; Kodesova, R.

    2009-04-01

    This study focuses on evaluation of a crop classification from middle-resolution images (Envisat MERIS) at national level. The main goal of such Land Use product is to provid spatial data for optimisation of monitoring of surface and groundwater pollution in the Czech Republic caused by pesticides use in agriculture. As there is a lack of spatial data on the pesticide use and their distribution, the localisation can be done according to the crop cover on arable land derived from the remote sensing images. Often high resolution data are used for agricultural Land Use classification but only at regional or local level. Envisat MERIS data, due to the wide satellite swath, can be used also at national level. The high temporal and also spectral resolution of MERIS data has indisputable advantage for crop classification. Methodology of a pixel-based MERIS classification applying an artificial neural-network (ANN) technique was proposed and performed at a national level, the Czech Republic. Five crop groups were finally selected - winter crops, spring crops, summer crops and other crops to be classified. Classification models included a linear, radial basis function (RBF) and a multi-layer percepton (MLP) ANN with 50 networks tested in training. The training data set consisted of about 200 samples per class, on which bootstrap resampling was applied. Selection of a subset of independent variables (Meris spectral channels) was used in the procedure. The best selected ANN model (MLP: 3 in, 13 hidden, 3 out) resulted in very good performance (correct classification rate 0.974, error 0.103) applying three crop types data set. In the next step data set with five crop types was evaluated. The ANN model (MLP: 5 in, 12 hidden, 5 out) performance was also very good (correct classification rate 0.930, error 0.370). The study showed, that while accuracy of about 80 % was achieved at pixel level when classifying only three crops, accuracy of about 70 % was achieved for five crop

  9. Agricultural peatland restoration: effects of land-use change on greenhouse gas (CO2 and CH4) fluxes in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.

    PubMed

    Knox, Sara Helen; Sturtevant, Cove; Matthes, Jaclyn Hatala; Koteen, Laurie; Verfaillie, Joseph; Baldocchi, Dennis

    2015-02-01

    Agricultural drainage of organic soils has resulted in vast soil subsidence and contributed to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta in California was drained over a century ago for agriculture and human settlement and has since experienced subsidence rates that are among the highest in the world. It is recognized that drained agriculture in the Delta is unsustainable in the long-term, and to help reverse subsidence and capture carbon (C) there is an interest in restoring drained agricultural land-use types to flooded conditions. However, flooding may increase methane (CH4) emissions. We conducted a full year of simultaneous eddy covariance measurements at two conventional drained agricultural peatlands (a pasture and a corn field) and three flooded land-use types (a rice paddy and two restored wetlands) to assess the impact of drained to flooded land-use change on CO2 and CH4 fluxes in the Delta. We found that the drained sites were net C and greenhouse gas (GHG) sources, releasing up to 341 g C m(-2) yr(-1) as CO2 and 11.4 g C m(-2) yr(-1) as CH4. Conversely, the restored wetlands were net sinks of atmospheric CO2, sequestering up to 397 g C m(-2) yr(-1). However, they were large sources of CH4, with emissions ranging from 39 to 53 g C m(-2) yr(-1). In terms of the full GHG budget, the restored wetlands could be either GHG sources or sinks. Although the rice paddy was a small atmospheric CO2 sink, when considering harvest and CH4 emissions, it acted as both a C and GHG source. Annual photosynthesis was similar between sites, but flooding at the restored sites inhibited ecosystem respiration, making them net CO2 sinks. This study suggests that converting drained agricultural peat soils to flooded land-use types can help reduce or reverse soil subsidence and reduce GHG emissions. PMID:25229180

  10. Land-Use Change and Bioenergy

    SciTech Connect

    2011-07-01

    This publication describes the Biomass Program’s efforts to examine the intersection of land-use change and bioenergy production. It describes legislation requiring land-use change assessments, key data and modeling challenges, and the research needs to better assess and understand the impact of bioenergy policy on land-use decisions.

  11. Developing a framework to assess the water quality and quantity impacts of climate change, shifting land use, and urbanization in a Midwestern agricultural landscape

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loheide, S. P.; Booth, E. G.; Kucharik, C. J.; Carpenter, S. R.; Gries, C.; Katt-Reinders, E.; Rissman, A. R.; Turner, M. G.

    2011-12-01

    Dynamic hydrological processes play a critical role in the structure and functioning of agricultural watersheds undergoing urbanization. Developing a predictive understanding of the complex interaction between agricultural productivity, ecosystem health, water quality, urban development, and public policy requires an interdisciplinary effort that investigates the important biophysical and social processes of the system. Our research group has initiated such a framework that includes a coordinated program of integrated scenarios, model experiments to assess the effects of changing drivers on a broad set of ecosystem services, evaluations of governance and leverage points, outreach and public engagement, and information management. Our geographic focus is the Yahara River watershed in south-central Wisconsin, which is an exemplar of water-related issues in the Upper Midwest. This research addresses three specific questions. 1) How do different patterns of land use, land cover, land management, and water resources engineering practices affect the resilience and sensitivity of ecosystem services under a changing climate? 2) How can regional governance systems for water and land use be made more resilient and adaptive to meet diverse human needs? 3) In what ways are regional human-environment systems resilient and in what ways are they vulnerable to potential changes in climate and water resources? A comprehensive program of model experiments and biophysical measurements will be utilized to evaluate changes in five freshwater ecosystem services (flood regulation, groundwater recharge, surface water quality, groundwater quality, and lake recreation) and five related ecosystem services (food crop yields, bioenergy crop yields, carbon storage in soil, albedo, and terrestrial recreation). Novel additions to existing biophysical models will allow us to simulate all components of the hydrological cycle as well as agricultural productivity, nitrogen and phosphorus transport

  12. Sustainable land use and agricultural soil

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Sustainable land use is the management of the natural environment and the built environment to conserve the resources that help to sustain the current human population of the area and that of future generations. This concept of sustainable land use requires an analysis of the existing resources, the...

  13. Investigation of environmental change pattern in Japan. Observation of present state of agricultural land-use by analysing LANDSAT data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maruyasu, T. (Principal Investigator); Hayashi, S.

    1977-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Species and ages of grasses in pastures were identified, and soils were classified into several types using LANDSAT data. This data could be used in a wide area of cultivation, reclamation, or management planning on agricultural land.

  14. Land Use and Land Cover Change

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, Daniel; Polsky, Colin; Bolstad, Paul V.; Brody, Samuel D.; Hulse, David; Kroh, Roger; Loveland, Thomas; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-05-01

    A contribution to the 3rd National Climate Assessment report, discussing the following key messages: 1. Choices about land-use and land-cover patterns have affected and will continue to affect how vulnerable or resilient human communities and ecosystems are to the effects of climate change. 2. Land-use and land-cover changes affect local, regional, and global climate processes. 3. Individuals, organizations, and governments have the capacity to make land-use decisions to adapt to the effects of climate change. 4. Choices about land use and land management provide a means of reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas levels.

  15. Effects of Agricultural Land-Use Changes and Rainfall on Ground-Water Recharge in Central and West Maui, Hawai`i, 1926-2004

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Engott, John A.; Vana, Thomas T.

    2007-01-01

    Concern surrounding declines in ground-water levels and an increase in the chloride concentration of water pumped from wells in the Iao aquifer system on the Island of Maui has prompted an investigation into the long-term sustainability of current (2006) and future ground-water withdrawals. As part of this investigation, a water budget for central and west Maui was calculated from which (1) ground-water recharge was estimated for the period 1926-2004 and (2) the effects of agricultural land-use changes and drought were analyzed. Estimated mean ground-water recharge decreased 44 percent from 1979 to 2004 in central and west Maui. Reduction in agricultural irrigation, resulting from more efficient irrigation methods and a reduction in the acreage used for agriculture, is largely responsible for the declining recharge. Recently, periods of lower-than-average rainfall have further reduced recharge. During the period 1926-79, ground-water recharge averaged 693 Mgal/d, irrigation averaged 437 Mgal/d, and rainfall averaged 897 Mgal/d. During the period 2000-04, ground-water recharge averaged 391 Mgal/d, irrigation averaged 237 Mgal/d, and rainfall averaged 796 Mgal/d. Simulations of hypothetical future conditions indicate that a cessation of agriculture in central and west Maui would reduce mean ground-water recharge by 18 percent in comparison with current conditions, assuming that current climatic conditions are the same as the long-term-average conditions during the period 1926-2004. A period of drought identical to that of 1998-2002 would reduce mean recharge by 27 percent. Mean recharge would decrease by 46 percent if this drought were to occur after a cessation of agriculture in central and western Maui. Whereas droughts are transient phenomena, a reduction in agricultural irrigation is likely a permanent condition.

  16. FINAL REPORT: An Integrated Inter-temporal Analysis of Land Use Change in Forestry and Agriculture: An Assessment of the Influence of Technological Change on Carbon Sequestration and Land Use.

    SciTech Connect

    Brent Sohngen

    2008-10-30

    This project built a global land use model to examine the implications of land based carbon sequestration on land uses. The model also can be used to assess the costs of different land-based actions to reduce carbon emissions.

  17. Modelling land use change and environmental impact.

    PubMed

    Veldkamp, A; Verburg, P H

    2004-08-01

    Land use change models are tools for understanding and explaining the causes and consequences of land use dynamics. Recently, new models, combining knowledge and tools from biophysical and socio-economic sciences, have become available. This has resulted in spatially explicit models focussed on patterns of change as well as agent-based models focused on the underlying decision processes. These developments improve the use of land use change models in environmental impact studies. This special issue documents these developments: (i) analysing the system properties in a biophysical and socio-economic context at multiple scales; (ii) integrating spatially explicit land use change models in integrated assessment models; (iii) visualising and quantifying the potential effects of land use change in trade-off curves, to support land users and policy makers in their decisions; and (iv) modelling of the actual decision making process with agent-based modelling. A new promising future development is the incorporation of dynamic feedbacks between changing land use and changing environmental conditions and vice versa. Unfortunately such dynamic feedbacks between the socio-economic and biophysical model components are still not or only partially operational in current models and are therefore the most important challenge for land use and environmental modellers. PMID:15246569

  18. Patterns of land use, extensification, and intensification of Brazilian agriculture.

    PubMed

    Dias, Lívia C P; Pimenta, Fernando M; Santos, Ana B; Costa, Marcos H; Ladle, Richard J

    2016-08-01

    Sustainable intensification of agriculture is one of the main strategies to provide global food security. However, its implementation raises enormous political, technological, and social challenges. Meeting these challenges will require, among other things, accurate information on the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural land use and yield. Here, we investigate historical patterns of agricultural land use (1940-2012) and productivity (1990-2012) in Brazil using a new high-resolution (approximately 1 km(2) ) spatially explicit reconstruction. Although Brazilian agriculture has been historically known for its extensification over natural vegetation (Amazon and Cerrado), data from recent years indicate that extensification has slowed down and was replaced by a strong trend of intensification. Our results provide the first comprehensive historical overview of agricultural land use and productivity in Brazil, providing clear insights to guide future territorial planning, sustainable agriculture, policy, and decision-making. PMID:27170520

  19. Assessment on the rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan using a process-based model and spatially explicit land-use change inventories - Part 2: Future potentials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.

    2014-08-01

    Future potentials of the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural lands in Japan were estimated using a simulation system we recently developed to simulate SOC stock change at country-scale under varying land-use change, climate, soil, and agricultural practices, in a spatially explicit manner. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2006 with historical inventories, and subsequently to 2020 with future scenarios of agricultural activity comprised of various agricultural policy targets advocated by the Japanese government. Furthermore, the simulation was run subsequently until 2100 while forcing no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity to investigate duration and course of SOC stock change at country scale. A scenario with an increased rate of organic carbon input to agricultural fields by intensified crop rotation in combination with the suppression of conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types was found to have a greater reduction of CO2 emission by enhanced soil carbon sequestration, but only under a circumstance in which the converted agricultural lands will become settlements that were considered to have a relatively lower rate of organic carbon input. The size of relative reduction of CO2 emission in this scenario was comparable to that in another contrasting scenario (business-as-usual scenario of agricultural activity) in which a relatively lower rate of organic matter input to agricultural fields was assumed in combination with an increased rate of conversion of the agricultural fields to unmanaged grasslands through abandonment. Our simulation experiment clearly demonstrated that net-net-based accounting on SOC stock change, defined as the differences between the emissions and removals during the commitment period and the emissions and removals during a previous period (base year or base period of Kyoto Protocol), can be largely influenced by variations in future climate. Whereas baseline-based accounting, defined

  20. Land Use and Land Cover Change Modeling Using Remote Sensing and Soft Computing Approach to Assess Sugarcane Expansion Impacts in Tropical Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vicente, L. E.; Koga-Vicente, A.; Friedel, M. J.; Victoria, D.; Zullo, J., Jr.; Gomes, D.; Bayma-Silva, G.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture is related with land-use/cover changes (LUCC) over large areas and, in recent years, increase in demand of ethanol fuel has been influence in expansion of areas occupied with corn and sugar cane, raw material for ethanol production. Nevertheless, there´s a concern regarding the impacts on food security, such as, decrease in areas planted with food crops. Considering that the LUCC is highly dynamic, the use of Remote Sensing is a tool for monitoring changes quickly and precisely in order to provide information for agricultural planning. In this work, Remote Sensing techniques were used to monitor the LUCC occurred in municipalities of São Paulo state- Brazil related with sugarcane crops expansion in order to (i) evaluate and quantify the previous land cover in areas of sugarcane crop expansion, and (ii) provide information to elaborate a future land cover scenario based on Self Organizing Map (SOM) approach. The land cover classification procedure was based on Landsat 5 TM images, obtained from the Global Land Survey. The Landsat images were then segmented into homogeneous objects, with represent areas on the ground with similar spatial and spectral characteristics. These objects are related to the distinct land cover types that occur in each municipality. The segmentation procedure resulted in polygons over the three time periods along twenty years (1990-2010). The land cover for each object was visually identified, based on its shape, texture and spectral characteristics. Land cover types considered were: sugarcane plantations, pasture lands, natural cover, forest plantation, permanent crop, short cycle crop, water bodies and urban areas. SOM technique was used to estimate the values for the future land cover scenarios for the selected municipalities, using the information of land change provided by the remote sensing and data from official sources.

  1. Determination of the effects of temporal change in urban and agricultural land uses as seen in the example of the town of Akhisar, using remote sensing techniques.

    PubMed

    Gulgun, Bahriye; Yörük, Ismail; Turkyilmaz, Bahar; Bolca, Mustafa; Güneş, Asli

    2009-03-01

    Today, as a result of erratic and unplanned urbanization, towns are rapidly becoming a mass of concrete and town-dwellers are suffocated by their busy and stressful professional lives. They feel a need for places where they can find breathing-space in their free time. Green areas within towns are important spaces where townspeople are able to carry out recreational activities. These places form a link between townspeople and nature. The importance of urban green areas is increasing with every passing day due to their social, psychological, ecological, physical and economic functions and their impact on the quality of towns. In this study it has been attempted to demonstrate the pressures of urban development on agricultural land by determining the changing land use situation over the years in the district of Akhisar. In this research, an aerial photograph from year 1939 and satellite images of the town from the years 2000 and 2007 were used. Land use changes in the region were determined spatially. As a result of this study, which aims to determine in which direction urbanization is progressing in the district, the importance of town planning emerges. This study will be informative for the local authorities in their future town planning projects. With its flat and almost flat fertile arable land, the district of Akhisar occupies an important position within the province of Manisa. From the point of view of olive production the region is one of Turkey's important centres. Fifty-five percent of the olive production in the province of Manisa is realized in Akhisar. However, the results of the present study show that while agricultural areas comprised 2.5805 km(2) in 1939, these had diminished to 1.5146 km(2) in the year 2000 and had diminished to 1.0762 km(2) in the year 2007 and residential area (dense) 0.449 km(2) occupied in 1939, in the year 2000 this had risen to 1.9472 and 2.3238 km(2) in the year 2007. This planless urbanization in the study area has led to

  2. Determining agricultural land use scenarios in a mesoscale Bavarian watershed for modelling future water quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehdi, B. B.; Ludwig, R.; Lehner, B.

    2012-06-01

    Land use scenarios are of primordial importance when implementing a hydrological model for the purpose of determining the future quality of water in a watershed. This paper provides the background for researching potential agricultural land use changes that may take place in a mesoscale watershed, for water quality research, and describes why studying the farm scale is important. An on-going study in Bavaria examining the local drivers of change in land use is described.

  3. Challenges in Global Land Use/Land Cover Change Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clarke, K. C.

    2011-12-01

    For the purposes of projecting and anticipating human-induced land use change at the global scale, much work remains in the systematic mapping and modeling of world-wide land uses and their related dynamics. In particular, research has focused on tropical deforestation, loss of prime agricultural land, loss of wild land and open space, and the spread of urbanization. Fifteen years of experience in modeling land use and land cover change at the regional and city level with the cellular automata model SLEUTH, including cross city and regional comparisons, has led to an ability to comment on the challenges and constraints that apply to global level land use change modeling. Some issues are common to other modeling domains, such as scaling, earth geometry, and model coupling. Others relate to geographical scaling of human activity, while some are issues of data fusion and international interoperability. Grid computing now offers the prospect of global land use change simulation. This presentation summarizes what barriers face global scale land use modeling, but also highlights the benefits of such modeling activity on global change research. An approach to converting land use maps and forecasts into environmental impact measurements is proposed. Using such an approach means that multitemporal mapping, often using remotely sensed sources, and forecasting can also yield results showing the overall and disaggregated status of the environment.

  4. Analyzing simulated patterns of land use change

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, V.H.; O'Neill, R.V.; Southworth, F. ); Loureiro, F. )

    1992-01-01

    Land use change is one of major factors affecting global environmental conditions. Modeling land use change requires combining spatially-explicit ecological information with socioeconomic factors. A modeling system is being developed that integrates sub-models of human colonization with submodels of ecological interactions to estimate patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration and land management scenarios. The model projects maps of land use change that can be compared to remote sensing measures using spatial statistics. The simulation modeling system is being applied to the Brazilian state of Rondonia where deforestation has increased at a faster rate over the past two decades than anywhere else in the world. The model projections suggest that land management can both reduce carbon release and improve the length of time farmers are able to remain on the land. The model provides a tool to evaluate the spatial and temporal implications of various land management options.

  5. Analyzing simulated patterns of land use change

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, V.H.; O`Neill, R.V.; Southworth, F.; Loureiro, F.

    1992-07-01

    Land use change is one of major factors affecting global environmental conditions. Modeling land use change requires combining spatially-explicit ecological information with socioeconomic factors. A modeling system is being developed that integrates sub-models of human colonization with submodels of ecological interactions to estimate patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration and land management scenarios. The model projects maps of land use change that can be compared to remote sensing measures using spatial statistics. The simulation modeling system is being applied to the Brazilian state of Rondonia where deforestation has increased at a faster rate over the past two decades than anywhere else in the world. The model projections suggest that land management can both reduce carbon release and improve the length of time farmers are able to remain on the land. The model provides a tool to evaluate the spatial and temporal implications of various land management options.

  6. Land Use Change Modelling in R

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moulds, S.; Buytaert, W.

    2014-12-01

    Land use activities, through the provision of natural resources, are essential to human existence. In many regions land use change is degrading biodiversity and threatening the sustainability of ecosystem services upon which communities and livelihoods depend. Spatially explicit land use change models are widely used to understand and quantify key processes that affect land use change and make predictions about past and future change. These models typically include a module to estimate the suitability of different locations to particular land use types based on biophysical and socioeconomic predictor variables and a module to allocate change spatially. They are commonly implemented in languages such as C/C++ and Fortran and made available as standalone applications or through proprietary GIS. In many cases the models are released under closed source licences, limiting the reproducibility of scientific results and making model comparison difficult. This work presents a new R package providing methods and classes to support land use change modelling and model development and comparison within the open source R statistical computing environment. The package makes use of existing R implementations of methods such as random forests and recursive partitioning and regression trees to estimate location suitability, as well as providing methods for statistical model building and evaluation. Currently two spatial allocation methods are provided: the first based on the widely used and tested CLUE-S algorithm and the second a novel stochastic procedure developed for large scale applications. Some common tools for evaluating allocation results are implemented. It is hoped that the package will provide a framework for the development of new routines that can be incorporated into future releases of the code.

  7. Hydrology of a zero-order Southern Piedmont watershed through 45 years of changing agricultural land use. Part 1. Monthly and seasonal rainfall-runoff relationships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Endale, Dinku M.; Fisher, Dwight S.; Steiner, Jean L.

    2006-01-01

    Few studies have reported runoff from small agricultural watersheds over sufficiently long period so that the effect of different cover types on runoff can be examined. We analyzed 45-yrs of monthly and annual rainfall-runoff characteristics of a small (7.8 ha) zero-order typical Southern Piedmont watershed in southeastern United States. Agricultural land use varied as follows: 1. Row cropping (5-yrs); 2. Kudzu ( Pueraria lobata; 5-yrs); 3. Grazed kudzu and rescuegrass ( Bromus catharticus; 7-yrs); and 4. Grazed bermudagrass and winter annuals ( Cynodon dactylon; 28-yrs). Land use and rainfall variability influenced runoff characteristics. Row cropping produced the largest runoff amount, percentage of the rainfall partitioned into runoff, and peak flow rates. Kudzu reduced spring runoff and almost eliminated summer runoff, as did a mixture of kudzu and rescuegrass (KR) compared to row cropping. Peak flow rates were also reduced during the kudzu and KR. Peak flow rates increased under bermudagrass but were lower than during row cropping. A simple process-based 'tanh' model modified to take the previous month's rainfall into account produced monthly rainfall and runoff correlations with coefficient of determination ( R2) of 0.74. The model was tested on independent data collected during drought. Mean monthly runoff was 1.65 times the observed runoff. Sustained hydrologic monitoring is essential to understanding long-term rainfall-runoff relationships in agricultural watersheds.

  8. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #3: IPCC SPECIAL REPORT ON "LAND USE, LAND USE CHANGE, AND FORESTRY"

    EPA Science Inventory

    ORD is participating in the development of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on "Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry." Preparation of the Special Report was requested by the Conference of the Parties(COP) to the United Nations Framework Conve...

  9. Rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan: an assessment using a process-based model and spatially-explicit land-use change inventories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.

    2013-11-01

    In order to develop a system to estimate a country-scale soil organic carbon stock change (SCSC) in agricultural lands in Japan that enables to take account effect of land-use changes, climate, different agricultural activity and nature of soils, a spatially-explicit model simulation system using Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) integrated with spatial and temporal inventories was developed. Future scenarios on agricultural activity and land-use change were prepared, in addition to future climate projections by global climate models, with purposely selecting rather exaggerated and contrasting set of scenarios to assess system's sensitivity as well as to better factor out direct human influence in the SCSC accounting. Simulation was run from year 1970 to 2008, and to year 2020, with historical inventories and future scenarios involving target set in agricultural policy, respectively, and subsequently until year 2100 with no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity but with varying climate to investigate course of SCSC. Results of the country-scale SCSC simulation have indicated that conversion of paddy fields to croplands occurred during past decades, as well as a large conversion of agricultural fields to settlements or other lands that have occurred in historical period and would continue in future, could act as main factors causing greater loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) at country-scale, with reduction organic carbon input to soils and enhancement of SOC decomposition by transition of soil environment to aerobic conditions, respectively. Scenario analysis indicated that an option to increase organic carbon input to soils with intensified rotation with suppressing conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types could achieve reduction of CO2 emission due to SCSC in the same level as that of another option to let agricultural fields be abandoned. These results emphasize that land-use changes, especially conversion of the agricultural lands

  10. Impact of land use and land cover change on the water balance of a large agricultural watershed: Historical effects and future directions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schilling, Keith E.; Jha, Manoj K.; Zhang, You-Kuan; Gassman, Philip W.; Wolter, Calvin F.

    2008-07-01

    Over the last century, land use and land cover (LULC) in the United States Corn Belt region shifted from mixed perennial and annual cropping systems to primarily annual crops. Historical LULC change impacted the annual water balance in many Midwestern basins by decreasing annual evapotranspiration (ET) and increasing streamflow and base flow. Recent expansion of the biofuel industry may lead to future LULC changes from increasing corn acreage and potential conversion of the industry to cellulosic bioenergy crops of warm or cool season grasses. In this paper, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate potential impacts from future LULC change on the annual and seasonal water balance of the Raccoon River watershed in west-central Iowa. Three primary scenarios for LULC change and three scenario variants were evaluated, including an expansion of corn acreage in the watershed and two scenarios involving expansion of land using warm season and cool season grasses for ethanol biofuel. Modeling results were consistent with historical observations. Increased corn production will decrease annual ET and increase water yield and losses of nitrate, phosphorus, and sediment, whereas increasing perennialization will increase ET and decrease water yield and loss of nonpoint source pollutants. However, widespread tile drainage that exists today may limit the extent to which a mixed perennial-annual land cover would ever resemble pre-1940s hydrologic conditions. Study results indicate that future LULC change will affect the water balance of the watershed, with consequences largely dependent on the future LULC trajectory.

  11. Indirect land use change and biofuel policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kocoloski, Matthew; Griffin, W. Michael; Matthews, H. Scott

    2009-09-01

    Biofuel debates often focus heavily on carbon emissions, with parties arguing for (or against) biofuels solely on the basis of whether the greenhouse gas emissions of biofuels are less than (or greater than) those of gasoline. Recent studies argue that land use change leads to significant greenhouse gas emissions, making some biofuels more carbon intensive than gasoline. We argue that evaluating the suitability and utility of biofuels or any alternative energy source within the limited framework of plus and minus carbon emissions is too narrow an approach. Biofuels have numerous impacts, and policy makers should seek compromises rather than relying solely on carbon emissions to determine policy. Here, we estimate that cellulosic ethanol, despite having potentially higher life cycle CO2 emissions (including from land use) than gasoline, would still be cost-effective at a CO2 price of 80 per ton or less, well above estimated CO2 mitigation costs for many alternatives. As an example of the broader approach to biofuel policy, we suggest the possibility of using the potential cost reductions of cellulosic ethanol relative to gasoline to balance out additional carbon emissions resulting from indirect land use change as an example of ways in which policies could be used to arrive at workable solutions.

  12. Trade-off analysis in the Northern Andes to study the dynamics in agricultural land use.

    PubMed

    Stoorvogel, J J; Antle, J M; Crissman, C C

    2004-08-01

    In this paper we hypothesize that land use change can be induced by non-linearities and thresholds in production systems that impact farmers' decision making. Tradeoffs between environmental and economic indicators is a useful way to represent dynamic properties of agricultural systems. The Tradeoff Analysis (TOA) System is software designed to implement the integrated analysis of tradeoffs in agricultural systems. The TOA methodology is based on spatially explicit econometric simulation models linked to spatially referenced bio-physical simulation models to simulate land use and input decisions. The methodology has been applied for the potato-pasture production system in the Ecuadorian Andes. The land use change literature often describes non-linearity in land use change as a result of sudden changes in the political (e.g. new agricultural policies) or environmental setting (e.g. earthquakes). However, less attention has been paid to the non-linearities in production systems and their consequences for land use change. In this paper, we use the TOA system to study agricultural land use dynamics and to find the underlying processes for non-linearities. Results show that the sources of non-linearities are in the properties of bio-physical processes and in the decision making-process of farmers. PMID:15246571

  13. Land Use and climate change interactions in tropical South America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swann, A. L. S.; Longo, M.; Knox, R. G.; Lee, E.; Moorcroft, P. R.

    2015-12-01

    Ongoing agricultural expansion in Amazonia and the surrounding areas of Brazil is expected to continue over the next several decades as global food demand increases. The transition of natural forest and savannah ecosystems to pastureland and agricultural crops is predicted to create warmer and drier atmospheric conditions than the native vegetation. Compounding this effect, climate change is likely to lead to reduced transpiration fluxes as plants become more water efficient under higher atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. Here we investigate the expected impacts of predicted future land use on the climate of South America as well as the potential impacts of increasing CO2. We find that the climate response to land use change generally consistent with expectations from previous global modeling simulations with drier conditions resulting from deforestation, however the direct changes in precipitation are relatively small (on order of a few percent). Local drying from land use change is driven primarily by decreases in evapo-transpiration associated with the loss of forest, and concomitant increases in runoff. Significant changes in convectively available potential energy and convective inhibition during the transition to the wet season indicate that the decrease in surface latent heat flux is indeed leading to a drier atmosphere, however these changes occur around a mean climatological state that is already very favorable for convection, and thus lead to relatively small changes in precipitation. The physiological effects of increasing CO2 alone also drive a reduction in precipitation, which is compounded by radiation-driven circulation changes. If these land use changes were to occur under a background state of drier conditions, such as those predicted for the future global climate model experiments, this additional atmospheric drying driven by land use change may be sufficient to decrease precipitation more substantially.

  14. Modeling socioeconomic and ecologic aspects of land-use change

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, V.H.; Pedlowski, M.A.; O'Neill, R.V.; Southworth, F.

    1992-01-01

    Land use change is one of the major factors affecting global environmental conditions. Prevalent types of land-use change include replacing forests with agriculture, mines or ranches; forest degradation from collection of firewood; and forest logging. A global effect of wide-scale deforestation is an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which may affect climate. Regional effects include loss of biodiversity and disruption of hydrologic regimes. Local effects include soil erosion, siltation and decreases in soil fertility, loss of extractive reserves, and disruption of indigenous people. Modeling land use change requires combining socioeconomic and ecological factors because socioeconomic forces frequently initiate land-use change and are affected by the subsequent ecological degradation. This paper describes a modeling system that integrates submodels of human colonization and impacts to estimate patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration and land use scenarios. Immigration which follows road building or paving is a major factor in the rapid deforestation of previously inaccessible areas. Roads facilitate colonization, allow access for large machines, and provide transportation routes for mort of raw materials and produce.

  15. Mapping of agricultural land use from ERTS-1 digital data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, A. D.; Max, G. A.; Peterson, G. W.

    1973-01-01

    A study area was selected in Lancaster and Lebanon Counties, two of the major agricultural counties in Pennsylvania. This area was delineated on positive transparencies on MSS data collected on October 11, 1972 (1080-15185). Channel seven was used to delineate general land forms, drainage patterns, water and urban areas. Channel five was used to delineate highway networks. These identifiable features were useful aids for locating areas on the computer output. Computer generated maps were used to delineate broad land use categories, such as forest land, agricultural land, urban areas and water. These digital maps have a scale of approximately 1:24,000 thereby allowing direct comparison with U.S.G.S. 7.5 minute quadrangle sheets. Aircraft data were used as a form of ground truth useful for the delineation of land use patterns.

  16. Interactive boundary delineation of agricultural lands using graphics workstations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cheng, Thomas D.; Angelici, Gary L.; Slye, Robert E.; Ma, Matt

    1992-01-01

    A review is presented of the computer-assisted stratification and sampling (CASS) system developed to delineate the boundaries of sample units for survey procedures. CASS stratifies the sampling units by land-cover and land-use type, employing image-processing software and hardware. This procedure generates coverage areas and the boundaries of stratified sampling units that are utilized for subsequent sampling procedures from which agricultural statistics are developed.

  17. Automatic information extraction for land use and agricultural applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bond, A. D.; Thomas, D. T.

    1973-01-01

    Description of some current work in interpretation technique development for automatic computer-aided image information extraction related to various application areas, including land use mapping and agricultural survey and monitoring. In particular, the application of a fast template matching algorithm, employing the sequential similarity detection principle, to image registration, linear feature detection, and the extraction and enumeration of scene objects is discussed and illustrated.

  18. Agricultural land use mapping. [Pennsylvania, Montana, and Texas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcmurtry, G. J.; Petersen, G. W. (Principal Investigator); Wilson, A. D.

    1973-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Agricultural areas were selected or analysis in southeastern Pennsylvania, north central Montana, and southern Texas. These three sites represent a broad range of soils, soil parent materials, climate, modes of agricultural operation, crops, and field sizes. In each of these three sites, ERTS-1 digital data were processed to determine the feasibility of automatically mapping agricultural land use. In Pennsylvania, forest land, cultivated land, and water were separable within a 25,000 acre area. Four classes of water were also classified and identified, using ground truth. A less complex land use pattern was analyzed in Hill County, Montana. A land use map was prepared shown alternating patterns of summer fallow and stubble fields. The location of farmsteads could be inferred, along with that of a railroad line. A river and a creek flowing into the river were discernible. Six categories of water, related to sediment content and depth, were defined in the reservoir held by the Fresno dam. These classifications were completed on a 150 square mile area. Analysis of the data from Texas is in its formative stages. A test site has been selected and a brightness map has been produced.

  19. The land use climate change energy nexus

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, Virginia H; Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Kline, Keith L

    2011-01-01

    Landscape ecology focuses on the spatial patterns and processes of ecological and human interactions. These patterns and processes are being altered both by changing human resource-management practices and changing climate conditions associated, in part, with increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Dominant resource extraction and land management activities involve energy, and the use of fossil energy is one of the key drivers behind increasing greenhouse gas emissions as well as land-use changes. Alternative energy sources (such as wind, solar, nuclear, and bioenergy) are being explored to reduce greenhouse gas emission rates. Yet, energy production, including alternative-energy options, can have a wide range of effects on land productivity, surface cover, albedo, and other factors that affect carbon, water and energy fluxes and, in turn, climate. Meanwhile, climate influences the potential output, relative efficiencies and sustainability of alternative energy sources. Thus climate change, energy choices, and land-use change are linked, and any analysis in landscape ecology that considers one of these factors should consider them all. This analysis explores the implications of those linkages and points out ecological patterns and processes that may be affected by these interactions.

  20. Elbe river flood peaks and postwar agricultural land use in East Germany.

    PubMed

    van der Ploeg, R R; Schweigert, P

    2001-12-01

    Collectivization of farmland since the 1950s has changed the agricultural land use in former East Germany. Single fields on the collective farms became increasingly large and were cultivated with increasingly heavy farm equipment. This led to large-scale physical degradation of arable soils, enhancing the formation of surface runoff in periods with prolonged and excessive precipitation. The extent to which this development may have affected the discharge behavior of the main East German river, the Elbe, has so far not been studied. We analyzed the flood peaks of the Elbe during the past century (1900-2000). The flood discharge behavior of the Elbe has apparently changed significantly since the 1950s. Although climate changes may be involved, we conclude that the Elbe flood peaks, recorded since 1950, are related to the changes in postwar agricultural land use in former East Germany. To restore the degraded farmland soils, a change in agricultural land use may be necessary. PMID:11824225

  1. Impact of land use and land cover change on the water balance of a large agricultural watershed: Historical effects and future directions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schilling, K.E.; Jha, M.K.; Zhang, Y.-K.; Gassman, P.W.; Wolter, C.F.

    2009-01-01

    Over the last century, land use and land cover (LULC) in the United States Corn Belt region shifted from mixed perennial and annual cropping systems to primarily annual crops. Historical LULC change impacted the annual water balance in many Midwestern basins by decreasing annual evapotranspiration (ET) and increasing streamflow and base flow. Recent expansion of the biofuel industry may lead to future LULC changes from increasing corn acreage and potential conversion of the industry to cellulosic bioenergy crops of warm or cool season grasses. In this paper, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate potential impacts from future LULC change on the annual and seasonal water balance of the Raccoon River watershed in west-central Iowa. Three primary scenarios for LULC change and three scenario variants were evaluated, including an expansion of corn acreage in the watershed and two scenarios involving expansion of land using warm season and cool season grasses for ethanol biofuel. Modeling results were consistent with historical observations. Increased corn production will decrease annual ET and increase water yield and losses of nitrate, phosphorus, and sediment, whereas increasing perennialization will increase ET and decrease water yield and loss of nonpoint source pollutants. However, widespread tile drainage that exists today may limit the extent to which a mixed perennial-annual land cover would ever resemble pre-1940s hydrologic conditions. Study results indicate that future LULC change will affect the water balance of the watershed, with consequences largely dependent on the future LULC trajectory. ?? 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

  2. Evaluation of historical land cover, land use, and land-use change emissions in the GCAM integrated assessment model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Janetos, A. C.; Zhou, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate and energy policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. However, quantitative evaluation of these models has been somewhat limited for a variety of reasons, including data availability, data quality, and the inherent challenges in projections of societal values and decision-making. In this analysis, we identify and confront methodological challenges involved in evaluating the agriculture and land use component of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. GCAM then calculates both emissions from land-use practices, and long-term changes in carbon stocks in different land uses, thus providing simulation information that can be compared to observed historical data. In this work, we compare GCAM results, both in recent historic and future time periods, to historical data sets. We focus on land use, land cover, land-use change emissions, and albedo.

  3. Changes in Land Use and Land Cover

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer, William B.; Turner, B. L., II

    1994-10-01

    This book deals with the relationship between land use and land cover: between human activities and the transformation of the Earth's surface. It describes the recent changes in the world's farmland, forests, grasslands and settlements, and the impacts of these changes on soil, water resources and the atmosphere. It explores what is known about the importance of various underlying human sources of land transformation: population growth, technological change, political-economic institutions, political structure, and attitudes and beliefs. Three working group reports outline important avenues for future research: the construction of a global land model, the division of the world into regional situations of land transformation, and a wiring diagram to structure the division of research among fields of study.

  4. Interpretation of Pennsylvania agricultural land use from ERTS-1 data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcmurtry, G. J.; Petersen, G. W. (Principal Investigator); Wilson, A. D.

    1974-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. To study the complex agricultural patterns in Pennsylvania, a portion of an ERTS scene was selected for detailed analysis. Various photographic products were made and were found to be only of limited value. This necessitated the digital processing of the ERTS data. Using an unsupervised classification procedure, it was possible to delineate the following categories: (1) forest land with a northern aspect, (2) forest land with a southern aspect, (3) valley trees, (4) wheat, (5) corn, (6) alfalfa, grass, pasture, (7) disturbed land, (8) builtup land, (9) strip mines, and (10) water. These land use categories were delineated at a scale of approximately 1:20,000 on the line printer output. Land use delineations were also made using the General Electric IMAGE 100 interactive analysis system.

  5. Impact of land use changes on surface warming in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Jingyong; Dong, Wenjie; Wu, Lingyun; Wei, Jiangfeng; Chen, Peiyan; Lee, Dong-Kyou

    2005-06-01

    Land use changes such as urbanization, agriculture, pasturing, deforestation, desertification and irrigation can change the land surface heat flux directly, and also change the atmospheric circulation indirectly, and therefore affect the local temperature. But it is difficult to separate their effects from climate trends such as greenhouse-gas effects. Comparing the decadal trends of the observation station data with those of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NNR) data provides a good method to separate the effects because the NNR is insensitive to land surface changes. The effects of urbanization and other land use changes over China are estimated by using the difference between the station and the NNR surface temperature trends. Our results show that urbanization and other land use changes may contribute to the observed 0.12°C (10yr)-1 increase for daily mean surface temperature, and the 0.20°C (10yr)-1 and 0.03°C (10 yr)-1 increases for the daily minimum and maximum surface temperatures, respectively. The urban heat island effect and the effects of other land-use changes may also play an important role in the diurnal temperature range change. The spatial pattern of the differences in trends shows a marked heterogeneity. The land surface degradation such as deforestation and desertification due to human activities over northern China, and rapidly-developed urbanization over southern China, may have mostly contributed to the increases at stations north of about 38°N and in Southeast China, respectively. Furthermore, the vegetation cover increase due to irrigation and fertilization may have contributed to the decreasing trend of surface temperature over the lower Yellow River Basin. The study illustrates the possible impacts of land use changes on surface temperature over China.

  6. Recent Land Use Change to Agriculture in the U.S. Lake States: Impacts on Cellulosic Biomass Potential and Natural Lands

    PubMed Central

    Mladenoff, David J.; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Johnson, Christopher P.; Rothstein, David E.

    2016-01-01

    Perennial cellulosic feedstocks may have potential to reduce life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by offsetting fossil fuels. However, this potential depends on meeting a number of important criteria involving land cover change, including avoiding displacement of agricultural production, not reducing uncultivated natural lands that provide biodiversity habitat and other valued ecosystem services, and avoiding the carbon debt (the amount of time needed to repay the initial carbon loss) that accompanies displacing natural lands. It is unclear whether recent agricultural expansion in the United States competes with lands potentially suited for bioenergy feedstocks. Here, we evaluate how recent land cover change (2008–2013) has affected the availability of lands potentially suited for bioenergy feedstock production in the U.S. Lake States (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan) and its impact on other natural ecosystems. The region is potentially well suited for a diversity of bioenergy production systems, both grasses and woody biomass, due to the widespread forest economy in the north and agricultural economy in the south. Based on remotely-sensed data, our results show that between 2008 and 2013, 836,000 ha of non-agricultural open lands were already converted to agricultural uses in the Lake States, a loss of nearly 37%. The greatest relative changes occurred in the southern half that includes some of the most diverse cultivable lands in the country. We use transition diagrams to reveal gross changes that can be obscured if only net change is considered. Our results indicate that expansion of row crops (corn, soybean) was responsible for the majority of open land loss. Even if recently lost open lands were brought into perennial feedstock production, there would a substantial carbon debt. This reduction in open land availability for biomass production is closing the window of opportunity to establish a sustainable cellulosic feedstock economy in the Lake States as

  7. Recent Land Use Change to Agriculture in the U.S. Lake States: Impacts on Cellulosic Biomass Potential and Natural Lands.

    PubMed

    Mladenoff, David J; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Johnson, Christopher P; Rothstein, David E

    2016-01-01

    Perennial cellulosic feedstocks may have potential to reduce life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by offsetting fossil fuels. However, this potential depends on meeting a number of important criteria involving land cover change, including avoiding displacement of agricultural production, not reducing uncultivated natural lands that provide biodiversity habitat and other valued ecosystem services, and avoiding the carbon debt (the amount of time needed to repay the initial carbon loss) that accompanies displacing natural lands. It is unclear whether recent agricultural expansion in the United States competes with lands potentially suited for bioenergy feedstocks. Here, we evaluate how recent land cover change (2008-2013) has affected the availability of lands potentially suited for bioenergy feedstock production in the U.S. Lake States (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan) and its impact on other natural ecosystems. The region is potentially well suited for a diversity of bioenergy production systems, both grasses and woody biomass, due to the widespread forest economy in the north and agricultural economy in the south. Based on remotely-sensed data, our results show that between 2008 and 2013, 836,000 ha of non-agricultural open lands were already converted to agricultural uses in the Lake States, a loss of nearly 37%. The greatest relative changes occurred in the southern half that includes some of the most diverse cultivable lands in the country. We use transition diagrams to reveal gross changes that can be obscured if only net change is considered. Our results indicate that expansion of row crops (corn, soybean) was responsible for the majority of open land loss. Even if recently lost open lands were brought into perennial feedstock production, there would a substantial carbon debt. This reduction in open land availability for biomass production is closing the window of opportunity to establish a sustainable cellulosic feedstock economy in the Lake States as

  8. Attributing land-use change carbon emissions to exported biomass

    SciTech Connect

    Saikku, Laura; Soimakallio, Sampo; Pingoud, Kim

    2012-11-15

    In this study, a simple, transparent and robust method is developed in which land-use change (LUC) emissions are retrospectively attributed to exported biomass products based on the agricultural area occupied for the production. LUC emissions account for approximately one-fifth of current greenhouse gas emissions. Increasing agricultural exports are becoming an important driver of deforestation. Brazil and Indonesia are used as case studies due to their significant deforestation in recent years. According to our study, in 2007, approximately 32% and 15% of the total agricultural land harvested and LUC emissions in Brazil and Indonesia respectively were due to exports. The most important exported single items with regard to deforestation were palm oil for Indonesia and bovine meat for Brazil. To reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions effectively worldwide, leakage of emissions should be avoided. This can be done, for example, by attributing embodied LUC emissions to exported biomass products. With the approach developed in this study, controversial attribution between direct and indirect LUC and amortization of emissions over the product life cycle can be overcome, as the method operates on an average basis and annual level. The approach could be considered in the context of the UNFCCC climate policy instead of, or alongside with, other instruments aimed at reducing deforestation. However, the quality of the data should be improved and some methodological issues, such as the allocation procedure in multiproduct systems and the possible dilution effect through third parties not committed to emission reduction targets, should be considered. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer CO{sub 2} emissions from land use changes are highly important. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Attribution of land use changes for products is difficult. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Simple and robust method is developed to attribute land use change emissions.

  9. Remote Sensing Application to Land Use Classification in a Rapidly Changing Agricultural/Urban Area: City of Virginia Beach, Virginia. Ph.D. Thesis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Odenyo, V. A. O.

    1975-01-01

    Remote sensing data on computer-compatible tapes of LANDSAT 1 multispectral scanner imager were analyzed to generate a land use map of the City of Virginia Beach. All four bands were used in both the supervised and unsupervised approaches with the LAYSYS software system. Color IR imagery of a U-2 flight of the same area was also digitized and two sample areas were analyzed via the unsupervised approach. The relationships between the mapped land use and the soils of the area were investigated. A land use land cover map at a scale of 1:24,000 was obtained from the supervised analysis of LANDSAT 1 data. It was concluded that machine analysis of remote sensing data to produce land use maps was feasible; that the LAYSYS software system was usable for this purpose; and that the machine analysis was capable of extracting detailed information from the relatively small scale LANDSAT data in a much shorter time without compromising accuracy.

  10. Characterizing patterns of agricultural land use in Amazonia by merging satellite imagery and census data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cardille, Jeffrey Alan

    In recent decades, millions of hectares of Amazonian primary forest, cerrado, and secondary forest have been cleared to support a dramatically increasing number of cattle and humans. With plans proposed for major new highways and utilities in the basin, development is highly likely to continue in coming years. Conversion to human use threatens to change the climate, ecosystems, and natural resources of Amazonia, and these effects are due not only to changes in land cover but to the land use management practices that follow. Unfortunately, we lack basin-wide information about land use across Amazonia. A key reason for this dearth of information is that earth-observing satellites designed to interpret land cover are prone to miss the land use changes within; in an area encompassing millions of square kilometers, it is impossible to visit more than a small portion of the study region to quantify land use activities. Agricultural censuses suggest a strategy to fill this gap: in Amazonia, they provide the only ground-surveyed land use information---yet because they are not easily reconciled with satellite-based land cover information, census data are underutilized. The research forming this dissertation presents a new, basin-wide depiction of land use in Amazonia by developing and applying new tools for understanding the past, current, and future impact of agricultural development. Specifically, this dissertation: (1) presents a new detailed understanding of the distribution and density of agricultural land use practices in Amazonia in the mid-1990s by fusing agricultural census data with satellite-derived land cover classifications; (2) assesses historical changes in agriculture of the previous decades; and (3) describes and applies new general techniques for the rapid update of land use data sets and maps using satellite imagery and census data. The fusion of census and satellite data described here advances our understanding by uniting the strengths of two distinct

  11. The Implications of Future Food Demand on Global Land Use, Land-Use Change Emissions, and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Luckow, P.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Eom, J.; Kim, S.; Moss, R.; Patel, P.

    2011-12-01

    In 2005, cropland accounted for approximately 10% of global land area. The amount of cropland needed in the future depends on a number of factors including global population, dietary preferences, and agricultural crop yields. In this paper, we explore the effect of various assumptions about global food demand and agricultural productivity between now and 2100 on global land use, land-use change emissions, and climate using the GCAM model. GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated, global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. For this analysis, we look at the effect of alternative socioeconomic pathways, crop yield improvement assumptions, and future meat demand scenarios on the demand for agricultural land. The three socioeconomic pathways explore worlds where global population in 2100 ranges from 6 billion people to 14 billion people. The crop yield improvement assumptions range from a world where yields do not improve beyond today's levels to a world with significantly higher crop productivity. The meat demand scenarios range from a vegetarian world to a world where meat is a dominant source of calories in the global diet. For each of these scenarios, we find that sufficient land exists to feed the global economy. However, rates of deforestation, bioenergy potential, land-use change emissions, and climate change differ across the scenarios. Under less favorable scenarios, deforestation rates, land-use change emissions, and the rate of climate change can be adversely affected.

  12. Modeling future water demand in California from developed and agricultural land uses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, T. S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Cameron, D. R.

    2015-12-01

    Municipal and urban land-use intensification in coming decades will place increasing pressure on water resources in California. The state is currently experiencing one of the most extreme droughts on record. This coupled with earlier spring snowmelt and projected future climate warming will increasingly constrain already limited water supplies. The development of spatially explicit models of future land use driven by empirical, historical land use change data allow exploration of plausible LULC-related water demand futures and potential mitigation strategies. We utilized the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) state-and-transition simulation model to project spatially explicit (1 km) future developed and agricultural land use from 2012 to 2062 and estimated the associated water use for California's Mediterranean ecoregions. We modeled 100 Monte Carlo simulations to better characterize and project historical land-use change variability. Under current efficiency rates, total water demand was projected to increase 15.1% by 2062, driven primarily by increases in urbanization and shifts to more water intensive crops. Developed land use was projected to increase by 89.8%-97.2% and result in an average 85.9% increase in municipal water use, while agricultural water use was projected to decline by approximately 3.9%, driven by decreases in row crops and increases in woody cropland. In order for water demand in 2062 to balance to current demand levels, the currently mandated 25% reduction in urban water use must remain in place in conjunction with a near 7% reduction in agricultural water use. Scenarios of land-use related water demand are useful for visualizing alternative futures, examining potential management approaches, and enabling better informed resource management decisions.

  13. Mechanisms Linking Land Use and Regional Climate Changes in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; Yu, M.; JI, Z.; Pal, J. S.

    2014-12-01

    Land use land cover change is an important driver for regional climate changes in West Africa due to the strong land-atmosphere coupling. On the other hand, land use is also strongly influenced by climate changes due to the primarily rain-fed agriculture in this region and the relatively low capacity to adapt. It is therefore important that projections for future climate changes or land use changes account for the impact of the feedback between land use and climate. Land use influences regional climate through several different pathways, including changes in surface biogeophysical properties (e.g., surface albedo, Bowen ratio, surface roughness) that have been widely studied, and changes in the dynamic properties of the land surface influencing dust emission. The relative importance of these two pathways is likely to be model dependent and region dependent. In this study the effects of these two pathways will be evaluated and compared, based on results from a modeling framework that includes a regional climate-vegetation model, a crop growth model, an agricultural economics model, and a land use allocation model. This will be conducted in the context of future land use and climate change projections, with the ultimate objective to assess how agricultural land use in West Africa may change driven by climate and socioeconomic changes, and how the resulting land use change may further modify regional climate in the future.

  14. Conceptual Model Linking Land Use to Human Consumption in the Agriculture Sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, M. E.; Bounoua, L.; Imhoff, M. L.; Karpman, K. J.

    2007-12-01

    Human activities are profoundly influenced by weather and climate. Agriculture is the most extensive and important uses of land, and is particularly sensitive to climate variability. In this talk we will present a conceptual model that seeks to integrate human appropriation of terrestrial net primary production (HANPP) with socio- economic models to explore the influence of commodities markets on land use decisions. Focusing on a single commodity as a building block, we explore the methodological and data requirements of the model, presenting the impact of precipitation, temperature, population and land use on food prices through a carbon-based calculation of supply and demand. We demonstrate the critical importance of accurate and temporally varying land use maps for models that integrate the social and biophysical spheres and show the mechanistic sensitivity of land use to change in the supply and demand ratio.

  15. Global priorities for national carnivore conservation under land use change

    PubMed Central

    Di Minin, Enrico; Slotow, Rob; Hunter, Luke T. B.; Montesino Pouzols, Federico; Toivonen, Tuuli; Verburg, Peter H.; Leader-Williams, Nigel; Petracca, Lisanne; Moilanen, Atte

    2016-01-01

    Mammalian carnivores have suffered the biggest range contraction among all biodiversity and are particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. Therefore, we identified priority areas for the conservation of mammalian carnivores, while accounting for species-specific requirements for connectivity and expected agricultural and urban expansion. While prioritizing for carnivores only, we were also able to test their effectiveness as surrogates for 23,110 species of amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles and 867 terrestrial ecoregions. We then assessed the risks to carnivore conservation within each country that makes a contribution to global carnivore conservation. We found that land use change will potentially lead to important range losses, particularly amongst already threatened carnivore species. In addition, the 17% of land targeted for protection under the Aichi Target 11 was found to be inadequate to conserve carnivores under expected land use change. Our results also highlight that land use change will decrease the effectiveness of carnivores to protect other threatened species, especially threatened amphibians. In addition, the risk of human-carnivore conflict is potentially high in countries where we identified spatial priorities for their conservation. As meeting the global biodiversity target will be inadequate for carnivore protection, innovative interventions are needed to conserve carnivores outside protected areas to compliment any proposed expansion of the protected area network. PMID:27034197

  16. Global priorities for national carnivore conservation under land use change.

    PubMed

    Di Minin, Enrico; Slotow, Rob; Hunter, Luke T B; Montesino Pouzols, Federico; Toivonen, Tuuli; Verburg, Peter H; Leader-Williams, Nigel; Petracca, Lisanne; Moilanen, Atte

    2016-01-01

    Mammalian carnivores have suffered the biggest range contraction among all biodiversity and are particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. Therefore, we identified priority areas for the conservation of mammalian carnivores, while accounting for species-specific requirements for connectivity and expected agricultural and urban expansion. While prioritizing for carnivores only, we were also able to test their effectiveness as surrogates for 23,110 species of amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles and 867 terrestrial ecoregions. We then assessed the risks to carnivore conservation within each country that makes a contribution to global carnivore conservation. We found that land use change will potentially lead to important range losses, particularly amongst already threatened carnivore species. In addition, the 17% of land targeted for protection under the Aichi Target 11 was found to be inadequate to conserve carnivores under expected land use change. Our results also highlight that land use change will decrease the effectiveness of carnivores to protect other threatened species, especially threatened amphibians. In addition, the risk of human-carnivore conflict is potentially high in countries where we identified spatial priorities for their conservation. As meeting the global biodiversity target will be inadequate for carnivore protection, innovative interventions are needed to conserve carnivores outside protected areas to compliment any proposed expansion of the protected area network. PMID:27034197

  17. Assessing the Impacts of Land Use Change from Cotton to Perennial Bioenergy Grasses on Hydrological Fluxes and Water Quality in a Semi-Arid Agricultural Watershed Using the APEX Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Y.; Ale, S.; Rajan, N.

    2015-12-01

    The semi-arid Texas High Plains (THP) region, where cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) is grown in vast acreage, has the potential to grow perennial bioenergy grasses. A change in land use from cotton cropping systems to perennial grasses such as Alamo switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) and Miscanthus giganteus (Miscanthus sinensis Anderss. [Poaceae]) can significantly affect regional hydrologic cycle and water quality. Assessing the impacts of this potential land use change on hydrology and water quality enables the environmental assessment of feasibility to grow perennial grasses in this region to meet the U.S. national bioenergy target of 2022. The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model was used in this study to assess the impacts of replacing cotton with switchgrass and Miscanthus on water and nitrogen balances in the upstream subwatershed of the Double Mountain Fork Brazos watershed in the THP, which contains 52% cotton land use. The APEX model was initially calibrated against observed streamflow and crop yield data. Since observed data on nitrogen loads in streamflow was not available for this subwatershed, we calibrated the APEX model against the SWAT-simulated nitrogen loads at the outlet of this subwatershed, which were obtained in a parallel study. The calibrated APEX model was used to simulate the impacts of land use change from cotton to Miscanthus and switchgrass on surface and subsurface water and nitrogen balances. Preliminary results revealed that the average (1994-2009) annual surface runoff decreased by 84% and 66% under the irrigated and dryland switchgrass scenarios compared to the baseline scenarios. Average annual percolation increased by 106% and 57% under the irrigated and dryland switchgrass scenarios relative to the baseline scenarios. Preliminary results also indicated Miscanthus and switchgrass appeared to be superior to cotton in terms of better water conservation and water quality, and minimum crop management requirements.

  18. Political ecology of land use change in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Novira, Nina

    2014-05-01

    Indonesia had once around 10% of the world's rain forest. Many accuse shifting cultivation and poverty to be responsible to tropical deforestation and land use change. Without denying the importance of these factors, this paper tries to see the problem from a different angel. Massive deforestation first took place when the Dutch colonials decided to develop coffee, tea and later rubber and oil palm plantation in the late 19th century. During the Independence Era, land use change can be divided into 3 periods: 1950 - 1975 period of agricultural expansion, mainly government program; 1975 - 1990 period of commercial logging concession, mainly private concession with government's endorsement; and 1990 to date period of land use change to cash crop, settlement, and business area, a more complex process involving private company, government program and endorsement, and personal action. The first two periodization shows clearly that land use change in Indonesia has a strong connection to political decision and power at certain period of time, which also influenced by international market tendencies at the given period. The last period has actually not so much difference. This paper seeks to explain land use change in Indonesia especially in the last period of 1990 to present. This period can be divided again into 3 sub-periods: later New Order Era, early Reformation Era, and the Regional Autonomy Era. The case study was conducted in Labuhan Batu Utara District of North Sumatera. Semi-structured interview was done with various actors in different levels. It is argued that government's policies and arrangements along with government's reaction to international market and politics plays a substantially important role in land use change. In the first sub-period (1990 - 1998), it is the fading power of Suharto's regime that increases farmers' courage to violate the strict prohibition of rice field conversion to other uses. Another important factor is the introduction of

  19. Change in statistics of drought in a land use scenario for Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilian, Markus; Chavez, Erik; Lucarini, Valerio

    2016-04-01

    The land use changes due to an intensified and expanding agricultural and industrial activity is affecting regional weather and climate in Brazil. We analyse the results of a land use change driven Weather and Research Forecasting Model (WRF) using classical drought indices and specific agricultural yield loss drought optimum indices. The objective is to assess changes in risk exposure driven by changes in weather patterns subject to different scenarios of land use changes in Brazil. The WRF model is driven by land use changes as well as the ECHAM5 climate model (with the A1B scenario) on a 60km and 30km grid. In order to determine the risk exposure of an important economic sector to changes in land use change we focus on maize as one of the principal crop grown in Brazil.

  20. Impacts of Forest and Agricultural Land Use on Stream Dissolved Organic Carbon During Storms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oh, N. H.; Shin, Y.; Jeon, Y. J.; Lee, E. J.; Eom, J. S.; Kim, B.

    2015-12-01

    Although many studies have been conducted to evaluate the effects of land use on concentrations and compositions of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in streams and rivers, the relationships are still not clear. To elucidate the impacts of forest and agricultural land use on stream DOC during storm events, we investigated concentrations, optical properties, δ13C, and Δ 14C of DOC in forest and agriculture dominated headwater streams in South Korea. Stream DOC concentrations were the highest in a forested subwatershed, and a significant positive correlation was observed between stream DOC concentrations and the proportion of forested area in watersheds, which was strengthened by increased rain intensity. Four PARAFAC components were extracted including terrestrial humic substances, terrestrial fulvic acids, microbial organic matter, and protein-like organic matter, all of which showed a positive correlation with stream DOC concentration although relative proportion of components were dependent on land use. While DOC in a forest stream was mostly composed of terrestrially derived and 14C-enriched, DOC in an agricultural stream included aged DOC up to ~1,000 years old. Although the impacts of hydrological changes due to irrigation, fertilizer use, and selected crop species were not examined, the results of this study suggest that agricultural land use can be a source of aged terrestrial DOC to streams during summer monsoon storms, potentially changing the balance of the regional carbon cycle.

  1. Systemic change increases forecast uncertainty of land use change models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verstegen, J. A.; Karssenberg, D.; van der Hilst, F.; Faaij, A.

    2013-12-01

    Cellular Automaton (CA) models of land use change are based on the assumption that the relationship between land use change and its explanatory processes is stationary. This means that model structure and parameterization are usually kept constant over time, ignoring potential systemic changes in this relationship resulting from societal changes, thereby overlooking a source of uncertainty. Evaluation of the stationarity of the relationship between land use and a set of spatial attributes has been done by others (e.g., Bakker and Veldkamp, 2012). These studies, however, use logistic regression, separate from the land use change model. Therefore, they do not gain information on how to implement the spatial attributes into the model. In addition, they often compare observations for only two points in time and do not check whether the change is statistically significant. To overcome these restrictions, we assimilate a time series of observations of real land use into a land use change CA (Verstegen et al., 2012), using a Bayesian data assimilation technique, the particle filter. The particle filter was used to update the prior knowledge about the parameterization and model structure, i.e. the selection and relative importance of the drivers of location of land use change. In a case study of sugar cane expansion in Brazil, optimal model structure and parameterization were determined for each point in time for which observations were available (all years from 2004 to 2012). A systemic change, i.e. a statistically significant deviation in model structure, was detected for the period 2006 to 2008. In this period the influence on the location of sugar cane expansion of the driver sugar cane in the neighborhood doubled, while the influence of slope and potential yield decreased by 75% and 25% respectively. Allowing these systemic changes to occur in our CA in the future (up to 2022) resulted in an increase in model forecast uncertainty by a factor two compared to the

  2. Can future land use change be usefully predicted?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramankutty, N.; Coomes, O.

    2011-12-01

    There has been increasing recognition over the last decade that land use and land cover change is an important driver of global environmental change. Consequently, there have been growing efforts to understanding processes of land change from local-to-global scales, and to develop models to predict future changes in the land. However, we believe that such efforts are hampered by limited attention being paid to the critical points of land change. Here, we present a framework for understanding land use change by distinguishing within-regime land-use dynamics from land-use regime shifts. Illustrative historical examples reveal the significance of land-use regime shifts. We further argue that the land-use literature predominantly demonstrates a good understanding (with predictive power) of within-regime dynamics, while understanding of land-use regime shifts is limited to ex post facto explanations with limited predictive capability. The focus of land use change science needs to be redirected toward studying land-use regime shifts if we are to have any hope of making useful future projections. We present a preliminary framework for understanding land-use regime-shifts, using two case studies in Latin America as examples. We finally discuss the implications of our proposal for land change science.

  3. Agricultural Land Use Determines the Trait Composition of Ground Beetle Communities.

    PubMed

    Hanson, Helena I; Palmu, Erkki; Birkhofer, Klaus; Smith, Henrik G; Hedlund, Katarina

    2016-01-01

    In order to improve biological control of agricultural pests, it is fundamental to understand which factors influence the composition of natural enemies in agricultural landscapes. In this study, we aimed to understand how agricultural land use affects a number of different traits in ground beetle communities to better predict potential consequences of land-use change for ecosystem functioning. We studied ground beetles in fields with different agricultural land use ranging from frequently managed sugar beet fields, winter wheat fields to less intensively managed grasslands. The ground beetles were collected in emergence tents that catch individuals overwintering locally in different life stages and with pitfall traps that catch individuals that could have a local origin or may have dispersed into the field. Community weighted mean values for ground beetle traits such as body size, flight ability and feeding preference were estimated for each land-use type and sampling method. In fields with high land-use intensity the average body length of emerging ground beetle communities was lower than in the grasslands while the average body length of actively moving communities did not differ between the land-use types. The proportion of ground beetles with good flight ability or a carnivorous diet was higher in the crop fields as compared to the grasslands. Our study highlights that increasing management intensity reduces the average body size of emerging ground beetles and the proportion of mixed feeders. Our results also suggest that the dispersal ability of ground beetles enables them to compensate for local management intensities. PMID:26730734

  4. Agricultural Land Use Determines the Trait Composition of Ground Beetle Communities

    PubMed Central

    Birkhofer, Klaus; Smith, Henrik G.; Hedlund, Katarina

    2016-01-01

    In order to improve biological control of agricultural pests, it is fundamental to understand which factors influence the composition of natural enemies in agricultural landscapes. In this study, we aimed to understand how agricultural land use affects a number of different traits in ground beetle communities to better predict potential consequences of land-use change for ecosystem functioning. We studied ground beetles in fields with different agricultural land use ranging from frequently managed sugar beet fields, winter wheat fields to less intensively managed grasslands. The ground beetles were collected in emergence tents that catch individuals overwintering locally in different life stages and with pitfall traps that catch individuals that could have a local origin or may have dispersed into the field. Community weighted mean values for ground beetle traits such as body size, flight ability and feeding preference were estimated for each land-use type and sampling method. In fields with high land-use intensity the average body length of emerging ground beetle communities was lower than in the grasslands while the average body length of actively moving communities did not differ between the land-use types. The proportion of ground beetles with good flight ability or a carnivorous diet was higher in the crop fields as compared to the grasslands. Our study highlights that increasing management intensity reduces the average body size of emerging ground beetles and the proportion of mixed feeders. Our results also suggest that the dispersal ability of ground beetles enables them to compensate for local management intensities. PMID:26730734

  5. Carbon Density and Anthropogenic Land Use Influences on Net Land-Use Change Emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J.; Rothwell, Andrew J.

    2013-10-08

    We examine historical and future land-use emissions using a simple mechanistic carbon-cycle model with regional and ecosystem specific parameterizations. Our central estimate of net terrestrial land-use change emissions, exclusive of climate feedbacks, is 250 GtC over the last three hundred years. This estimate is most sensitive to assumptions for preindustrial forest and soil carbon densities. We also find that estimates are sensitive to the treatment of crop and pasture lands. These sensitivities also translate into differences in future terrestrial uptake in the RCP4.5 land-use scenario. This estimate of future uptake is lower than the native values from the GCAM integrated assessment model result due to lower net reforestation in the RCP4.5 gridded land-use data product

  6. Implications of climate and land use change: Chapter 4

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hall, Jefferson S.; Murgueitio, Enrique; Calle, Zoraida; Raudsepp-Hearne, Ciara; Stallard, Robert F.; Balvanera, Patricia

    2015-01-01

    This chapter relates ecosystem services to climate change and land use. The bulk of the chapter focuses on ecosystem services and steepland land use in the humid Neotropics – what is lost with land-cover changed, and what is gained with various types of restoration that are sustainable given private ownership. Many case studies are presented later in the white paper. The USGS contribution relates to climate change and the role of extreme weather events in land-use planning.

  7. Follow-up and modeling of the land use in an intensive agricultural watershed in France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corgne, Samuel; Barbier, Johann; Hubert-Moy, Laurence; Mercier, Gregoire; Solaiman, Basel

    2003-03-01

    In intensive agricultural regions, monitoring land use and cover change represents an important stake. Some land cover changes in agro-systems cause modifications in the management of land use that contribute to increase environmental problems, including an important degradation of water quality. In this context, the identification of land-cover dynamics at high spatial scales constitutes a prior approach for the restoration of water resources. The modeling approach used to study land use and cover changes at a field-scale is adapted from a vector change analysis method generally applied to assess land cover changes from regional to global scales. The main objective of this study is to identify vegetation changes at the field scale during winter, in relation with crop successions. Magnitude and direction of the vector of changes with remote sensing data and GIS, calculated on a small watershed located in Western France for a six-year period (1996-2001) indicate both intensity and nature of observed changes in this area. The results allow to qualify accurately (i.e. at the scale of the field) the type of changes, to quantify them and weigh up their intensity. Then, all the results are integrated in a probabilistic model to build-up a short time land use prediction.

  8. Agent-based modeling of urban land-use change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xinyan; Li, Deren

    2005-10-01

    ABM (Agent-Based Modeling) is a newly developed method of computer simulation. It has characteristics such as active, dynamic, and operational. Urban land-use change has been a focus problem all over the world, especially for the developing countries. We try to use ABM to model the urban land-use changes. By studying the mechanism of urban land use evolvement, we put forwards the thinking of modeling. And an urban land-use change model is built primarily based on the RePast software and GIS spatial database.

  9. Interactive Land Use-Climate Change Predictions in West Africa: Preliminary Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.; Koo, J.

    2013-12-01

    Land use changes constitute an important regional climate change forcing that modifies the greenhouse gas induced future climate changes. At the same time, climate change is an important driver for land use changes, although it is unclear how important this impact might be relative to the impact of socio-economic factors on future land use. Using West Africa as an example, this study examines the importance of considering land use-climate change interactions in decadal predictions for future land use and climate changes, and thus assess whether there is a strong need to incorporate land use modeling into earth system models. Specifically, we evaluate the impact of projected climate changes from a regional climate model (RegCM4-CLM4) on crop yields using the crop model DSSAT, and assess the need for future land use changes by combining crop yield changes with demand for local productions predicted based on socio-economic drivers using an economic model (IFPRI's IMPACT model). For this preliminary assessment, a simple land use allocation approach is used, which favors agricultural expansion over intensification in order to provide an upper limit for land use changes. As a first test, the RCP8.5 mid-century climate projected by the NCAR CESM model is used as the future climate boundary conditions to drive the regional climate model. The impact of considering the land use-climate change interactions will be evaluated based on the differences in projected climate changes between two types of simulations: one that considers land use changes driven by both climate-induced crop yield changes and socioeconomic factors, and one that considers land use changes driven solely by socioeconomic factors.

  10. Dynamic integration of land use changes in a hydrologic assessment of a rapidly developing Indian catchment.

    PubMed

    Wagner, Paul D; Bhallamudi, S Murty; Narasimhan, Balaji; Kantakumar, Lakshmi N; Sudheer, K P; Kumar, Shamita; Schneider, Karl; Fiener, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Rapid land use and land-cover changes strongly affect water resources. Particularly in regions that experience seasonal water scarcity, land use scenario assessments provide a valuable basis for the evaluation of possible future water shortages. The objective of this study is to dynamically integrate land use model projections with a hydrologic model to analyze potential future impacts of land use change on the water resources of a rapidly developing catchment upstream of Pune, India. For the first time projections from the urban growth and land use change model SLEUTH are employed as a dynamic input to the hydrologic model SWAT. By this means, impacts of land use changes on the water balance components are assessed for the near future (2009-2028) employing four different climate conditions (baseline, IPCC A1B, dry, wet). The land use change modeling results in an increase of urban area by +23.1% at the fringes of Pune and by +12.2% in the upper catchment, whereas agricultural land (-14.0% and -0.3%, respectively) and semi-natural area (-9.1% and -11.9%, respectively) decrease between 2009 and 2028. Under baseline climate conditions, these land use changes induce seasonal changes in the water balance components. Water yield particularly increases at the onset of monsoon (up to +11.0mm per month) due to increased impervious area, whereas evapotranspiration decreases in the dry season (up to -15.1mm per month) as a result of the loss of irrigated agricultural area. As the projections are made for the near future (2009-2028) land use change impacts are similar under IPCC A1B climate conditions. Only if more extreme dry years occur, an exacerbation of the land use change impacts can be expected. Particularly in rapidly changing environments an implementation of both dynamic land use change and climate change seems favorable to assess seasonal and gradual changes in the water balance. PMID:26360457

  11. Land use change and land degradation in southeastern Mediterranean Spain.

    PubMed

    Symeonakis, Elias; Calvo-Cases, Adolfo; Arnau-Rosalen, Eva

    2007-07-01

    The magnitude of the environmental and social consequences of soil erosion and land degradation in semiarid areas of the Mediterranean region has long been recognized and studied. This paper investigates the interrelationship between land use/cover (LULC) changes and land degradation using remotely sensed and ancillary data for southeastern Spain. The area of study, the Xaló River catchment situated in the north of the Alicante Province, has been subjected to a number of LULC changes during the second half of the 20th century such as agricultural abandonment, forest fires, and tourist development. Aerial photographs dating back to 1956 were used for the delineation of historic LULC types; Landsat ETM+ data were used for the analysis and mapping of current conditions. Two important indicators of land degradation, namely, susceptibility to surface runoff and soil erosion, were estimated for the two dates using easily parametrizable models. The comparison of 1956 to 2000 conditions shows an overall "recuperating" trend over the catchment and increased susceptibility to soil erosion only in 3% of the catchment area. The results also identify potential degradation hot-spots where mitigation measures should be taken to prevent further degradation. The readily implemented methodology, based on modest data requirements demonstrated by this study, is a useful tool for catchment to regional scale land use change and land degradation studies and strategic planning for environmental management. PMID:17530333

  12. Land Use Change and Land Degradation in Southeastern Mediterranean Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Symeonakis, Elias; Calvo-Cases, Adolfo; Arnau-Rosalen, Eva

    2007-07-01

    The magnitude of the environmental and social consequences of soil erosion and land degradation in semiarid areas of the Mediterranean region has long been recognized and studied. This paper investigates the interrelationship between land use/cover (LULC) changes and land degradation using remotely sensed and ancillary data for southeastern Spain. The area of study, the Xaló River catchment situated in the north of the Alicante Province, has been subjected to a number of LULC changes during the second half of the 20th century such as agricultural abandonment, forest fires, and tourist development. Aerial photographs dating back to 1956 were used for the delineation of historic LULC types; Landsat ETM+ data were used for the analysis and mapping of current conditions. Two important indicators of land degradation, namely, susceptibility to surface runoff and soil erosion, were estimated for the two dates using easily parametrizable models. The comparison of 1956 to 2000 conditions shows an overall “recuperating” trend over the catchment and increased susceptibility to soil erosion only in 3% of the catchment area. The results also identify potential degradation hot-spots where mitigation measures should be taken to prevent further degradation. The readily implemented methodology, based on modest data requirements demonstrated by this study, is a useful tool for catchment to regional scale land use change and land degradation studies and strategic planning for environmental management.

  13. Detection and assessment of land use dynamics on Tenerife (Canary Islands): the agricultural development between 1986 and 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Günthert, Sebastian; Naumann, Simone; Siegmund, Alexander

    2012-10-01

    Since Spanish colonial times, the Canary Islands and especially Tenerife have always been used for intensive agriculture. Today almost 1/4 of the total area of Tenerife are agriculturally affected, whereas especially mountainous areas with suitable climate conditions are drastically transformed for agricultural use by building of large terraces. In recent years, political and economical developments lead to a further transformation process, especially inducted by an expansive tourism, which caused concentration- and intensification-tendencies of agricultural land use in lower altitudes as well as agricultural set-aside and rural exodus in the hinterland. The overall aim of the research at hand is to address the agricultural land use dynamics of the past decades, to statistically assess the causal reasons for those changes and to model the future agricultural land use dynamics on Tenerife. Therefore, an object-based classification procedure for recent RapidEye data (2010), Spot 4 (1998) as well as SPOT 1 (1986-88) imagery was developed, followed by a post classification comparison (PCC). Older agricultural fallow land or agricultural set-aside with a higher level of natural succession can hardly be acquired in the used medium satellite imagery. Hence, a second detection technique was generated, which allows an exact identification of the total agriculturally affected area on Tenerife, also containing older agricultural fallow land or agricultural set-aside. The method consists of an automatic texture-oriented detection and area-wide extraction of linear agricultural structures (plough furrows and field boundaries of arable land, utilised and non-utilised agricultural terraces) in current orthophotos of Tenerife. Once the change detection analysis is realised, it is necessary to identify the different driving forces which are responsible for the agricultural land use dynamics. The statistical connections between agricultural land use changes and these driving forces

  14. The Spatiotemporal Land use/cover Change of Adana City

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akın, A.; Erdoğan, M. A.; Berberoğlu, S.

    2013-10-01

    The major driving factors for land use planning are largely limited to socio-economic inputs that do not completely represent the spatio-temporal patterns and ecological inputs have often been neglected. Integration of remote sensing and GIS techniques enabled successful applications in characterizing the spatiotemporal trends of land use/land cover (LULC) change. This study demonstrated an approach that combines remote sensing, landscape metrics, and LULC change analysis as a promising tool for understanding spatiotemporal patterns of Adana city. Calculation of spatial metrics was based on a categorical, patch-based representation of the landscape. Landscape metrics are conceptual framework for sustainable landscape and ecological planning. LULC change analysis was performed by considering the metric calculation. Post-classification technique was used for the metric based change detection and two different remotely sensed data set recorded in 1967 (CORONA) and 2007 (ALOS AVNIR) were used for the analysis. Additionally, a LULC projection for the year 2023 was also generated and integrated to the change analysis. SLEUTH model was utilised as a urban growth model for the future developments of study area in the scope of Cellular Automata (CA). SLEUTH model contains the main elements that characterize the core characteristics of CA: it works in a grid space of homogeneous cells, with a neighburhood of eight cells, two cell states and five transition rules that act in sequential time steps. Most useful and relevant metrics for landscape including: percentage of landscape, patch density, edge density, largest patch index, Euclidian mean nearest neighbor distance, area weighted mean patch fractal dimension and contagion were calculated for the 1967, 2007 and 2023 LULC maps and temporal changes were determined for the study area. Most considerable change was observed on the agricultural areas. Urban sprawl is the major driving factor of the LULC change.

  15. Land use mapping and change detection using ERTS imagery in Montgomery County, Alabama

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilms, R. P.

    1973-01-01

    The feasibility of using remotely sensed data from ERTS-1 for mapping land use and detecting land use change was investigated. Land use information was gathered from 1964 air photo mosaics and from 1972 ERTS data. The 1964 data provided the basis for comparison with ERTS-1 imagery. From this comparison, urban sprawl was quite evident for the city of Montgomery. A significant trend from forestland to agricultural was also discovered. The development of main traffic arteries between 1964 and 1972 was a vital factor in the development of some of the urban centers. Even though certain problems in interpreting and correlating land use data from ERTS imagery were encountered, it has been demonstrated that remotely sensed data from ERTS is useful for inventorying land use and detecting land use change.

  16. Geomorphic response to agricultural land use in small fluvial systems - The role of landscape connectivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poeppl, R.; Keiler, M.; Glade, T.; Engage-Geomorphological Systems; Risk Research

    2010-12-01

    Nearly all river catchments are affected directly or indirectly by human actions, e.g. varying agricultural land use or interventions into to river course and flow lead to significant geomorphic changes. The rates of fluvial change are accelerating in many river catchments and public and institutional awareness of these changes and their consequences has grown. This trend leads to an increasing need for a deeper understanding of how the system elements are interrelated (connected) and how fluvial systems respond to human activities. Most of the studies relating to such topics focus on extrinsic (e.g. climatic) factors, although vegetation cover is one of the primary intrinsic factors on sediment yield to a river and even the most susceptible factor for human alterations. Furthermore, nearly all of the published studies are dealing with large rivers, disregarding the much more abundant smaller ones, which in sum do also influence larger rivers. The presented study contributes to gain a deeper understanding of how river systems geomorphologically respond to human activities. The focus in this study is on the importance of hillslope-channel connectivity relationships, as well as on connectivity relationships between the channel reaches in catchments with agricultural land use. Therefore, aerial photograph and airborne laserscan-interpretations were used to create detailed land use and river maps in order to gather current land use and river planform geometry conditions. The land use data was integrated to a GIS-related spatial soil erosion model so as to determine sources of fine sediment from eroding top soil in agricultural areas. Furthermore, a DEM-based multiple-flow model was applied to examine hillslope-channel connectivity relationships. River bed sediment composition, sediment embeddedness and in-channel accumulation of fine sediments were surveyed as potential indicators for geomorphic system response to agricultural land-use, as well as to determine

  17. Changing land use: Problems and opportunities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.S.; Dawson, D.K.; Dowell, B.A.

    1995-01-01

    Under the pressure of increasing human populations and expanding demands for food and fiber, native tropical and temperate habitats are becoming more restricted, and populations of many resident and migratory birds are declining. Mist net surveys of 111 forest and agricultural sites in Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala show that some migratory species use a wide variety of habitats during the non-breeding season; other migrants, especially ground-feeding insectivores that nest in temperate forests, are largely restricted to forest habitats during the northern winter. Most tropical residents are also scarce or absent in agricultural habitats; this is especially true of the suboscine families, which are an important component of tropical forests: Furnariidae, Dendrocolaptidae, Formicariidae, Tyrannidae, and Pipridae: Of the various agricultural habitats studied, arboreal crops, especially mature citrus and cacao, were used by a wide variety and relatively large number of migrants; at the other extreme, few birds were captured or observed in commercially grown allspice and platanos (bananas). Although habitat constraints on many species are increasing, the impact of these constraints can be reduced through research, management, legislation, and especially education. Long-range habitat management objectives that reduce forest fragmentation and promote retention of critical habitats for species can be realized if an informed and concerned public can be created

  18. Prospects for land-use sustainability on the agricultural frontier of the Brazilian Amazon

    PubMed Central

    Galford, Gillian L.; Soares-Filho, Britaldo; Cerri, Carlos E. P.

    2013-01-01

    The Brazilian Amazon frontier shows how remarkable leadership can work towards increased agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability without new greenhouse gas emissions. This is due to initiatives among various stakeholders, including national and state government and agents, farmers, consumers, funding agencies and non-governmental organizations. Change has come both from bottom-up and top-down actions of these stakeholders, providing leadership, financing and monitoring to foster environmental sustainability and agricultural growth. Goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land-cover and land-use change in Brazil are being achieved through a multi-tiered approach that includes policies to reduce deforestation and initiatives for forest restoration, as well as increased and diversified agricultural production, intensified ranching and innovations in agricultural management. Here, we address opportunities for the Brazilian Amazon in working towards low-carbon rural development and environmentally sustainable landscapes. PMID:23610175

  19. Assessing Ecological Impacts According to Land Use Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeong, S.; Lee, D. K.; Jeong, W.; Jeong, S. G.; Jin, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Land use patterns have changed by human activities, and it has affected the structure and dynamics of ecosystems. In particular, the conversion of forests into other land use has caused environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity. The evaluation of species and their habitat can be preferentially considered to prevent or minimize the adverse effects of land use change. The objective of study is identifying the impacts of environmental conditions on forest ecosystems by comparing ecological changes with time series spatial data. Species distribution models were developed for diverse species with presence data and time-series environmental variables, which allowed comparison of the habitat suitability and connectivity. Habitat suitability and connectivity were used to estimate impacts of forest ecosystems due to land use change. Our result suggested that the size and degree of ecological impacts are were different depending on the properties of land use change. The elements and species were greatly affected by the land use change according to the results. This study suggested that a methodology for measuring the interference of land use change in species habitat and connectivity. Furthermore, it will help to conserve and manage forest by identifying priority conservation areas with influence factor and scale.

  20. Quantifying the impact of land use change on hydrological responses in the Upper Ganga Basin, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsarouchi, Georgia-Marina; Mijic, Ana; Moulds, Simon; Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, Pradeep; Buytaert, Wouter

    2013-04-01

    Quantifying how changes in land use affect the hydrological response at the river basin scale is a challenge in hydrological science and especially in the tropics where many regions are considered data sparse. Earlier work by the authors developed and used high-resolution, reconstructed land cover maps for northern India, based on satellite imagery and historic land-use maps for the years 1984, 1998 and 2010. Large-scale land use changes and their effects on landscape patterns can impact water supply in a watershed by altering hydrological processes such as evaporation, infiltration, surface runoff, groundwater discharge and stream flow. Three land use scenarios were tested to explore the sensitivity of the catchment's response to land use changes: (a) historic land use of 1984 with integrated evolution to 2010; (b) land use of 2010 remaining stable; and (c) hypothetical future projection of land use for 2030. The future scenario was produced with Markov chain analysis and generation of transition probability matrices, indicating transition potentials from one land use class to another. The study used socio-economic (population density), geographic (distances to roads and rivers, and location of protected areas) and biophysical drivers (suitability of soil for agricultural production, slope, aspect, and elevation). The distributed version of the land surface model JULES was integrated at a resolution of 0.01° for the years 1984 to 2030. Based on a sensitivity analysis, the most sensitive parameters were identified. Then, the model was calibrated against measured daily stream flow data. The impact of land use changes was investigated by calculating annual variations in hydrological components, differences in annual stream flow and surface runoff during the simulation period. The land use changes correspond to significant differences on the long-term hydrologic fluxes for each scenario. Once analysed from a future water resources perspective, the results will be

  1. Evaluation of Resources of Agricultural Lands Using Fuzzy Indicators

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    With ever increasing demands on agriculture, it is essential that we be able to adequately evaluate agriculture land resources. Recently, efforts have been undertaken to develop methods and tools for the purpose of evaluating agricultural land resources. However, to be successful, assessments need...

  2. An Integrated Land Use - Land Cover Change Model for the Southern Africa Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Desanker, P. V.

    2001-12-01

    A land use change model covering the Miombo region of Southern Africa region is presented. The model includes a structure that recognizes the scales at which land use change decisions are made in the region, namely the traditional authority for subsistence agricultural land use, and includes social-economic and biophysical constraints to land use at multiple levels. Land cover information for the 1990's based on maps derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper data are used to initiative the model. The model, called MELT, can be used to examine impacts of land use change on carbon pools, emissions from land use change (slash and burn agriculture or as a result of soil carbon changes), and spatial patterning of land cover. MELT provides a suitable representation of the process of land use in this region, and will be essential in providing the correct context for observed fire and emissions across the region of the SAFARI 2000 initiative. MELT is implemented using an object-oriented approach, and allows easy linkage with impacts models.

  3. [Land use pattern and its dynamic changes in Amur tiger distribution region].

    PubMed

    Li, Zhong-wen; Wu, Jian-guo; Kou, Xiao-jun; Tian, Yu; Wang, Tian-ming; Mu, Pu; Ge, Jian-ping

    2009-03-01

    Land use and land cover change has been the primary cause for the habitat loss and fragmentation in the distribution region of Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica). Based on the spatiotemporal changes of land use and land cover in the distribution region, as well as their effects on the population dynamics of Amur tiger, this paper analyzed the development process and its characteristics of the main land use types (agricultural land, forest land, and construction land) in this region, with the land use change history being divided chronically into three distinctive periods, i.e., ancient times (prior to 1860), modern times (1860-1949), and contemporary times (after 1949). The results showed that the sporadic land use in ancient times had no significant effects on the survival of Amur tiger, while the extensive and intensive land use after the 1860s was mainly responsible for the decrease of Amur tiger population and its living space. Since 1949, the Amur tiger distribution region has been divided into two parts, i.e., Northeast China and Russia Far East. The differences in land use pattern, policy, and intensity between these two parts led to different survival status of Amur tiger. The key driving forces for the land use change in Amur tiger distribution region were human population increase, policy change, and increased productivity. PMID:19637615

  4. Integrating research on ecohydrology and land use change with land use management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bass, Brad; Byers, Ralph E.; Lister, Nina-Marie

    1998-10-01

    One objective of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme is to provide a scientific basis for sustainable development policies. Land use change and ecohydrology are important components of this scientific basis, but predicting change is difficult because of the scale and complexity of the interactions between non-linear ecohydrological and socio-economic processes at different spatial and temporal scales. A systems framework, the Ecosystem Approach, has been developed to conceptualize these interactions for the purpose of providing information for sustainable development policy. The Ecosystem Approach combines the dynamics of the Holling figure-eight model - a conceptual model of dynamics that stresses discontinuous change and destruction as an internal property of the system - and the properties of self-organizing systems with the socio political aspects of decision making.The Ecosystem Approach highlights the problems of managing change in complex systems when that change may involve unpredictable shifts to a different attractor. Although there are methods available to detect the occurrence of such shifts, both detection and modelling are complicated by the presence of semi-stable attractors. When a model or an ecosystem is on a semi-stable attractor, it may appear to remain stable for an extended period prior to changing as a consequence of inherent instabilities. When the shift to a new attractor occurs, it is quite sudden and unpredictable. A technical discussion on prediction under conditions of semi-stability and chaos is included because it enhances our understanding of the role of surprise in ecosystems, as well as the utility of simulation models.The principles of the Ecosystem Approach are derived from the theoretical discussion and an example of a land use policy in the Huron Natural Area in south-western Ontario. These principles provide a clear role for scientific research, and particularly simulation modelling, within the larger context of

  5. The effects of land use change and precipitation change on direct runoff in Wei River watershed, China.

    PubMed

    Dong, Leihua; Xiong, Lihua; Lall, Upmanu; Wang, Jiwu

    2015-01-01

    The principles and degrees to which land use change and climate change affect direct runoff generation are distinctive. In this paper, based on the MODIS data of land use in 1992 and 2003, the impacts of land use and climate change are explored using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method under two defined scenarios. In the first scenario, the precipitation is assumed to be constant, and thus the consequence of land use change could be evaluated. In the second scenario, the condition of land use is assumed to be constant, so the influence only induced by climate change could be assessed. Combining the conclusions of two scenarios, the effects of land use and climate change on direct runoff volume can be separated. At last, it is concluded: for the study basin, the land use types which have the greatest effect on direct runoff generation are agricultural land and water body. For the big sub basins, the effect of land use change is generally larger than that of climate change; for middle and small sub basins, most of them suffer more from land use change than from climate change. PMID:25633954

  6. Land use change effects on GHG dynamics in Central Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeLucia, N.; Bernacchi, C. J.; Gomez-Casanovas, N.

    2012-12-01

    The need for alternative energies is accelerating land use change as native or managed ecosystems are being converted to intense agricultural crops for biofuel purposes. Agriculture represents the single largest terrestrial flux of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere resulting from nutrient applications. Livestock grazing also accounts for a significant release of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere. Together, CO2, N2O and CH4 represent the dominant greenhouse gasses (GHG) that are emitted to the atmosphere through anthropogenic influences. Significant alterations to the land surface, particularly associated with changes in nutrient application rates, ability of vegetation to uptake nutrients, or changes in the stocking density of livestock, could have a meaningful impact on GHG emissions. Therefore, understanding how these changes will affect soil GHG dynamics is essential to quantify the impact of land use change on the global climate system. Large-scale changes to land cover type in Central Florida Highlands County is currently occurring in which improved pasture (bahiagrass, Paspalum notatum L., as forage for cattle, Bos taurus L.) is being replaced by energy cane (genus Saccharum L.). Fluxes of nitrous oxide (N2O), soil carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) were obtained over a complete wet-dry seasonal cycle in a grazed pasture and an energy cane plantation located in Highlands County, FL. In addition, we also investigated the biotic and environmental drivers that regulate soil GHG fluxes in these ecosystems. We predicted decreased rates of CH4 released to the atmosphere after the conversion process was completed to energy cane due to the absence of grazing cattle. We also predicted increased N2O emissions from aggressive fertilization of energycane. Using static chamber measurements, we collected gas samples from four energy cane crops at varying ages and improved pastures paired to each energy cane plot. The gas samples were analyzed using gas chromatography

  7. Assessment of Economic and Water Quality Impacts of Land Use Change Using a Simple Bioeconomic Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattarai, Gandhi; Srivastava, Puneet; Marzen, Luke; Hite, Diane; Hatch, Upton

    2008-07-01

    The objective of this study is to assess the economic and water quality impact of land use change in a small watershed in the Wiregrass region of Alabama. The study compares changes in water quality and revenue from agricultural and timber production due to changes in land use between years 1992 and 2001. The study was completed in two stages. In the first stage, a biophysical model was used to estimate the effect of land use change on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff and sediment deposition in the main channel; in the second stage, farm enterprise budgeting tools were used to estimate the economic returns for the changes in land use condition. Both biophysical and economic results are discussed, and a case for complex optimization to develop a decision support system is presented.

  8. Assessment of economic and water quality impacts of land use change using a simple bioeconomic model.

    PubMed

    Bhattarai, Gandhi; Srivastava, Puneet; Marzen, Luke; Hite, Diane; Hatch, Upton

    2008-07-01

    The objective of this study is to assess the economic and water quality impact of land use change in a small watershed in the Wiregrass region of Alabama. The study compares changes in water quality and revenue from agricultural and timber production due to changes in land use between years 1992 and 2001. The study was completed in two stages. In the first stage, a biophysical model was used to estimate the effect of land use change on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff and sediment deposition in the main channel; in the second stage, farm enterprise budgeting tools were used to estimate the economic returns for the changes in land use condition. Both biophysical and economic results are discussed, and a case for complex optimization to develop a decision support system is presented. PMID:18363053

  9. Effect of land use change on soil properties and functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tonutare, Tonu; Kõlli, Raimo; Köster, Tiina; Rannik, Kaire; Szajdak, Lech; Shanskiy, Merrit

    2014-05-01

    For good base of sustainable land management and ecologically sound protection of soils are researches on soil properties and functioning. Ecosystem approach to soil properties and functioning is equally important in both natural and cultivated land use conditions. Comparative analysis of natural and agro-ecosystems formed on similar soil types enables to elucidate principal changes caused by land use change (LUC) and to elaborate the best land use practices for local pedo-ecological conditions. Taken for actual analysis mineral soils' catena - rendzina → brown soils → pseudopodzolic soils → gley-podzols - represent ca 1/3 of total area of Estonian normal mineral soils. All soils of this catena differ substantially each from other by calcareousness, acidity, nutrition conditions, fabric and humus cover type. This catena (representative to Estonian pedo-ecological conditions) starts with drought-prone calcareous soils. Brown (distributed in northern and central Estonia) and pseudopodzolic soils (in southern Estonia) are the most broadly acknowledged for agricultural use medium-textured high-quality automorphic soils. Dispersedly distributed gley-podzols are permanently wet and strongly acid, low-productivity sandy soils. In presentation four complex functions of soils are treated: (1) being a suitable soil environment for plant cover productivity (expressed by annual increment, Mg ha-1 yr-1); (2) forming adequate conditions for decomposition, transformation and conversion of fresh falling litter (characterized by humus cover type); (3) deposition of humus, individual organic compounds, plant nutrition elements, air and water, and (4) forming (bio)chemically variegated active space for soil type specific edaphon. Capacity of soil cover as depositor (3) depends on it thickness, texture, calcareousness and moisture conditions. Biological activity of soil (4) is determined by fresh organic matter influx, quality and quantity of biochemical substances and humus

  10. China's Land-Use Changes during the Past 300 Years: A Historical Perspective.

    PubMed

    Miao, Lijuan; Zhu, Feng; Sun, Zhanli; Moore, John C; Cui, Xuefeng

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the processes of historical land-use change is crucial to the research of global environmental sustainability. Here we examine and attempt to disentangle the evolutionary interactions between land-use change and its underlying causes through a historical lens. We compiled and synthesized historical land-use change and various biophysical, political, socioeconomic, and technical datasets, from the Qing dynasty to modern China. The analysis reveals a clear transition period between the 1950s and the 1980s. Before the 1950s, cropland expanded while forested land diminished, which was also accompanied by increasing population; after the 1980s land-use change exhibited new characteristics: changes in cropland, and decoupling of forest from population as a result of agricultural intensification and globalization. Chinese political policies also played an important and complex role, especially during the 1950s-1980s transition periods. Overall, climate change plays an indirect but fundamental role in the dynamics of land use via a series of various cascading effects such as shrinking agricultural production proceeding to population collapse and outbreaks of war. The expected continuation of agricultural intensification this century should be able to support increasing domestic demand for richer diets, but may not be compatible with long-term environmental sustainability. PMID:27571087

  11. Implications of land use change in tropical Northern Africa under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brücher, T.; Claussen, M.; Raddatz, T.

    2015-06-01

    A major link between climate and humans in Northern Africa, and the Sahel in particular, is land use and associated land cover change, mainly where subsistence farming prevails. Here we assess possible feedbacks between the type of land use and harvest intensity and climate by analyzing a series of idealized GCM experiments using the MPI-ESM. The base line for these experiments is a simulation forced by the RCP8.5 scenario which includes strong greenhouse gas emissions and anthropogenic land cover changes. The anthropogenic land cover changes in the RCP8.5 scenario include a mixture of pasture and agriculture. In subsequent simulations, we replace the entire area affected by anthropogenic land cover change in the region between the Sahara in the North and the Guinean Coast in the South (4 to 20° N) by either pasture or agriculture, respectively. In a second setup we vary the amount of harvest in case of agriculture. The RCP8.5 base line simulation reveals strong changes in mean agriculture and monsoon rainfall. In comparison with these changes, any variation of the type of land use in the study area leads to very small, mostly insignificantly small, additional differences in mean temperature and annual precipitation change in this region. Within the uncertainty of the representation of land use in current ESMs, our study suggests marginal feedback between land use changes and climate changes triggered by strong greenhouse gas emissions. Hence as a good approximation, climate change can be considered as external driver in models of land-use - conflict dynamics when seasonal or mean values are used as external driver.

  12. Decomposing the Drivers of Past, Present, and Future Land Use Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    Over the past 500 years, global agricultural area has grown from 2 million km2 (1500) to 15 million km2 (2005), displacing forests and other natural ecosystems in the process (Hurtt et al., 2011). This expansion in area has been driven by changes in population, income, diet, and agricultural productivity. These factors will continue to evolve in the future; however, the effect of these changes on future land use, land cover, and emissions remains uncertain (e.g., Calvin et al., In Press). Additionally, future changes in land depend critically on the implementation of land-based mitigation options, such as bioenergy and afforestation (Wise et al., 2009; Reilly et al., 2012; Popp et al., 2013; Calvin et al., 2014). As all of these factors are uncertain in the future, the future evolution of land use and land cover is also uncertain. This presentation decomposes the drivers of past, present, and future land use change, characterizing the contribution of factors such as population, income, diet, agricultural productivity, and mitigation. In the historical period, we rely on a variety of land-based datasets (e.g., FAO, HYDE). For the future period, we analyze the integrated assessment modeling community's implementation of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; O'Neill et al., In Press). The SSPs describe five different evolutions of socioeconomic development, varying several factors relevant to land use and land use change.

  13. Modelling land use change in the Ganga basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moulds, Simon; Mijic, Ana; Buytaert, Wouter

    2014-05-01

    Over recent decades the green revolution in India has driven substantial environmental change. Modelling experiments have identified northern India as a "hot spot" of land-atmosphere coupling strength during the boreal summer. However, there is a wide range of sensitivity of atmospheric variables to soil moisture between individual climate models. The lack of a comprehensive land use change dataset to force climate models has been identified as a major contributor to model uncertainty. This work aims to construct a monthly time series dataset of land use change for the period 1966 to 2007 for northern India to improve the quantification of regional hydrometeorological feedbacks. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on board the Aqua and Terra satellites provides near-continuous remotely sensed datasets from 2000 to the present day. However, the quality and availability of satellite products before 2000 is poor. To complete the dataset MODIS images are extrapolated back in time using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) modelling framework, recoded in the R programming language to overcome limitations of the original interface. Non-spatial estimates of land use area published by the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) for the study period, available on an annual, district-wise basis, are used as a direct model input. Land use change is allocated spatially as a function of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers identified using logistic regression. The dataset will provide an essential input to a high-resolution, physically-based land-surface model to generate the lower boundary condition to assess the impact of land use change on regional climate.

  14. Land-use change and infectious disease in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomson, M. C.; Ericksen, P. J.; Mohamed, A. Ben; Connor, S. J.

    Land-use change has been associated with changes in the dynamics of infectious disease in West Africa. Here we describe the complex interactions of land-use change with three diseases (both vector- and non-vector-borne) of considerable public health significance in this region, namely, malaria and irrigation; epidemic meningitis and land degradation; onchocerciasis and deforestation. We highlight the confounding effect of climate variability, which acts as a driver of both land-use change and human health. We conclude, as have others, that the scale of observation always matters, and complex and dynamic feedbacks among social-ecological systems are not easily teased apart. We suggest that in order to establish the causal chain of interactions between land-use change and human health outcomes two approaches are necessary. The first is to have a thorough understanding of the aetiology of disease and the specific mechanisms by which land-use and climate variability affect the transmission of pathogens. This is achieved by focused, detailed studies encompassing a wide range of potential drivers, which are inevitably small scale and often cover short time periods. The second consists of large-scale studies of statistical associations between transmission indices or health outcomes and environmental variables stratified by known ecological or socio-economic confounders, and sufficient in size to overcome local biases in results. Such research activities need to be designed to inform each other if we are to develop predictive models for monitoring these diseases and to develop integrated programs for human health and sustainable land use.

  15. Characterization of streamflow, salinity, and selenium loading and land-use change in Montrose Arroyo, western Colorado, from 1992 to 2013

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Richards, Rodney J.; Moore, Jennifer L.

    2015-01-01

    Land use was characterized for 1992, 2002, and 2009 for site MA3. The common land-use change in the MA3 subwatershed was a conversion from previously irrigated agricultural land to urban land use. The MA3 subwatershed had 124 acres of irrigated land use converted to urban land use and 27.1 acres of unirrigated desert converted to urban land use from 1992 to 2009. Consistent with findings in previous land-use change reports, salinity and dissolved-selenium loading at site MA3 showed significant decreases as irrigated land was converted to urban land use.

  16. Emissions of carbon from land use change in sub-Saharan Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Houghton, R. A.; Hackler, J. L.

    2006-06-01

    Previous estimates of the flux of carbon from land use change in sub-Saharan Africa have been based on highly aggregated data and have ignored important categories of land use. To improve these estimates, we divided the region into four subregions (east, west, central, and southern Africa), each with six types of natural vegetation and five types of land use (permanent crops, pastures, shifting cultivation, industrial wood harvest, and tree plantations). We reconstructed rates of land use change and rates of wood harvest from country-level statistics reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (1961-2000) and extrapolated the rates from 1961 to 1850 on the basis of qualitative histories of demography, economy, and land use. We used a bookkeeping model to calculate the annual flux of carbon associated with these changes in land use. Country-level estimates of average forest biomass from the FAO, together with changes in biomass calculated from the reconstructed rates of land use change, constrained the average biomass of forests in 1850. Comparison of potential (predisturbance) forest areas with the areas present in 1850 and 2000 suggests that 60% of Africa's forests were lost before 1850 and an additional 10% lost in the last 150 years. The annual net flux of carbon from changes in land use was probably small and variable before the early 1900s but increased to a source of 0.3 ± 0.2 PgC/yr by the end of the century. In the 1990s the source was equivalent to about 15% of the global net flux of carbon from land use change.

  17. Agricultural intensification in Brazil and its effects on land-use patterns: an analysis of the 1975-2006 period.

    PubMed

    Barretto, Alberto G O P; Berndes, Göran; Sparovek, Gerd; Wirsenius, Stefan

    2013-06-01

    Does agricultural intensification reduce the area used for agricultural production in Brazil? Census and other data for time periods 1975-1996 and 1996-2006 were processed and analyzed using Geographic Information System and statistical tools to investigate whether and if so, how, changes in yield and stocking rate coincide with changes in cropland and pasture area. Complementary medium-resolution data on total farmland area changes were used in a spatially explicit assessment of the land-use transitions that occurred in Brazil during 1960-2006. The analyses show that in agriculturally consolidated areas (mainly southern and southeastern Brazil), land-use intensification (both on cropland and pastures) coincided with either contraction of both cropland and pasture areas, or cropland expansion at the expense of pastures, both cases resulting in farmland stability or contraction. In contrast, in agricultural frontier areas (i.e., the deforestation zones in central and northern Brazil), land-use intensification coincided with expansion of agricultural lands. These observations provide support for the thesis that (i) technological improvements create incentives for expansion in agricultural frontier areas; and (ii) farmers are likely to reduce their managed acreage only if land becomes a scarce resource. The spatially explicit examination of land-use transitions since 1960 reveals an expansion and gradual movement of the agricultural frontier toward the interior (center-western Cerrado) of Brazil. It also indicates a possible initiation of a reversed trend in line with the forest transition theory, i.e., agricultural contraction and recurring forests in marginally suitable areas in southeastern Brazil, mainly within the Atlantic Forest biome. The significant reduction in deforestation that has taken place in recent years, despite rising food commodity prices, indicates that policies put in place to curb conversion of native vegetation to agriculture land might be

  18. Climate change and land-use change impact on Western African river basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mariotti, Laura; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Filippo

    2010-05-01

    The main resource in western Africa is agriculture and therefore availability and quality of fresh water resources threaten food production in many regions. Quantifying the impact of climate and land-use change in very vulnerable regions like western Africa is therefore of crucial importance for developing appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this work the International Center for theoretical Physic (ICTP) regional climate model (RegCM3) is used to perform a 120 (1980-2100) years climate change simulation under the A1B scenario using ECHAM5 as boundary condition (BC). To further investigate which it would be the combined effect of the land-use change together with the climate change a 10 years time simulation has been completed using the future projected land-use from IIASA (The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis). Both simulations have been coupled with a physical based fully distributed hydrological model (CHyM) to asses which it would be the final effect of climate and land-use change on the river discharge. The two rivers used for this analysis are the Niger and Volta basin. The CHyM model has been validated coupling fist the hydrological model with a perfect boundary regional model simulation using ERA-interim as BC and using the runoff observations available along the two river basins. The model is able to reproduce the monthly seasonal cycle in both river basins reasonably well, therefore this allow us to use the same setting for a climate and land-use change simulation. Two hydrological time slice simulations have been performed with and without land-use change included. Results are presented and discussed for the monsoon season (JJA) on a station based, for the same stations used for validation purposed, but also the spatial change in discharge is presented in both cases and compared with the simple precipitation change observed in the region. Although the portion of change in precipitation due to the green house gases

  19. Agriculture and Energy: Implications for Food Security, Water, and Land Use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tokgoz, S.; Zhang, W.; Msangi, S.; Bhandary, P.

    2011-12-01

    population under hunger and poverty. In light of these threats and opportunities facing the global food system, the proposed study takes a long-term perspective and addresses the main medium and long- term drivers of agricultural markets using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade developed by the Environment and Production Technology Division of IFPRI to project future production, consumption, and trade of key agricultural commodities. The main objective of the study is to analyze the link between energy and agricultural markets, focusing on the "new" role of agriculture as a supplier of energy for transportation through biofuels, and the subsequent impact on land use and demand for water from the agricultural sector. In this context, this study incorporates various scenarios of future energy demand and energy price impacts on global agricultural markets (food prices and food security), water use implications (irrigation water consumption by agricultural sector), and land use implications (changes in national and global crop area). The scenarios are designed to understand the impact of energy prices on biofuel production, cost of production for agricultural crops, conversion of rainfed area to irrigated area, and necessary levels of crop productivity growth to counter these effects.

  20. Effects land surface type, land use, and land use change on aquatic-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide from tropical forests and peat lands of Borneo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oechel, W. C.; Abelleira Martínez, O.; Anshari, G.; Ikawa, H.; Lawrence, W. T.; Metz, M.; Neteler, M.; Nuriman, M.; Rocchini, D.; Zona, D.

    2011-12-01

    Tropical peat lands appear to be loosing huge amounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere due to patterns of land use and land use change including conversion of tropical forest peat lands to palm oil production and other agricultural endeavors and forest exploitation. Here, we look at the effect of land use patterns on the export of carbon to tropical river systems and the efflux from tropical rivers to the atmosphere. Levels of pcarbon dioxide, DOC and POC were measured in the Kapuas River, the longest river in Borneo. Patterns of land use and land use change were correlated with export rates of organic matter to the river as well as the vertical fluxes of carbon dioxide from the river and delta to the atmosphere. Land conversion of tropical forests on peat land soils to agriculture, including palm oil production, had some of the highest rates of lateral fluxes of organic carbon to the river system, and among the highest fluxes of carbon dioxide from the river to the atmosphere. This approach illustrates the utility of using a combination of methods: pcarbon dioxide measurement, water chemistry, temporal remote sensing, and modeling to understand and quantify the impact of land use change on GHG emissions from tropical peat lands. Boat based eddy covariance, developed and tested in the coastal zones of the Pacific Ocean, promises to provide a powerful addition to these approaches.

  1. Effective radiative forcing from historical land use change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrews, Timothy; Betts, Richard A.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Jones, Chris D.; Jones, Gareth S.

    2016-08-01

    The effective radiative forcing (ERF) from the biogeophysical effects of historical land use change is quantified using the atmospheric component of the Met Office Hadley Centre Earth System model HadGEM2-ES. The global ERF at 2005 relative to 1860 (1700) is -0.4 (-0.5) Wm-2, making it the fourth most important anthropogenic driver of climate change over the historical period (1860-2005) in this model and larger than most other published values. The land use ERF is found to be dominated by increases in the land surface albedo, particularly in North America and Eurasia, and occurs most strongly in the northern hemisphere winter and spring when the effect of unmasking underlying snow, as well as increasing the amount of snow, is at its largest. Increased bare soil fraction enhances the seasonal cycle of atmospheric dust and further enhances the ERF. Clouds are shown to substantially mask the radiative effect of changes in the underlying surface albedo. Coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations forced only with time-varying historical land use change shows substantial global cooling (dT = -0.35 K by 2005) and the climate resistance (ERF/dT = 1.2 Wm-2 K-1) is consistent with the response of the model to increases in CO2 alone. The regional variation in land surface temperature change, in both fixed-SST and coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations, is found to be well correlated with the spatial pattern of the forced change in surface albedo. The forcing-response concept is found to work well for historical land use forcing—at least in our model and when the forcing is quantified by ERF. Our results suggest that land-use changes over the past century may represent a more important driver of historical climate change then previously recognised and an underappreciated source of uncertainty in global forcings and temperature trends over the historical period.

  2. The Effect of Land Use Change on Land Surface Temperature in the Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Youneszadeh, S.; Amiri, N.; Pilesjo, P.

    2015-12-01

    The Netherlands is a small country with a relatively large population which experienced a rapid rate of land use changes from 2000 to 2008 years due to the industrialization and population increase. Land use change is especially related to the urban expansion and open agriculture reduction due to the enhanced economic growth. This research reports an investigation into the application of remote sensing and geographical information system (GIS) in combination with statistical methods to provide a quantitative information on the effect of land use change on the land surface temperature. In this study, remote sensing techniques were used to retrieve the land surface temperature (LST) by using the MODIS Terra (MOD11A2) Satellite imagery product. As land use change alters the thermal environment, the land surface temperature (LST) could be a proper change indicator to show the thermal changes in relation with land use changes. The Geographical information system was further applied to extract the mean yearly land surface temperature (LST) for each land use type and each province in the 2003, 2006 and 2008 years, by using the zonal statistic techniques. The results show that, the inland water and offshore area has the highest night land surface temperature (LST). Furthermore, the Zued (South)-Holland province has the highest night LST value in the 2003, 2006 and 2008 years. The result of this research will be helpful tool for urban planners and environmental scientists by providing the critical information about the land surface temperature.

  3. Spatio-temporal analysis of agricultural land-use intensity across the Western Siberian grain belt.

    PubMed

    Kühling, Insa; Broll, Gabriele; Trautz, Dieter

    2016-02-15

    The Western Siberian grain belt covers 1millionkm² in Asiatic Russia and is of global importance for agriculture. Massive land-use changes took place in that region after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the collapse of the state farm system. Decreasing land-use intensity (LUI) in post-Soviet Western Siberia was observed on grassland due to declining livestock whilst on cropland trends of land abandonment reversed in the early 2000s. Recultivation of abandoned cropland as well as increasing fertilizer inputs and narrowing crop rotations led to increasing LUI on cropland during the last two decades. Beyond that general trend, no information is available about spatial distribution and magnitude but a crucial precondition for the development of strategies for sustainable land management. To quantify changes and patterns in LUI, we developed an intensity index that reflects the impacts of land-based agricultural production. Based on subnational yearly statistical data, we calculated two separate input-orientated indices for cropland and grassland, respectively. The indices were applied on two spatial scale: at seven provinces covering the Western Siberian grain belt (Altay Kray, Chelyabinsk, Kurgan, Novosibirsk, Omsk, Sverdlovsk and Tyumen) and at all districts of the central province Tyumen. The spatio-temporal analysis clearly showed opposite trends for the two land-use types: decreasing intensity on grassland (-0.015 LUI units per year) and intensification on cropland (+0.014 LUI units per year). Furthermore, a spatial concentration towards intensity centres occurred during transition from a planned to a market economy. A principal component analysis enabled the individual calculations of both land-use types to be combined and revealed a strong link between biophysical conditions and LUI. The findings clearly showed the need for having a different strategy for future sustainable land management for grassland (predominantly used by livestock of households

  4. Trade-offs in land-use decisions: Towards a framework for assessing multiple ecosystem responses to land-use change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeFries, Ruth S.; Asner, Gregory P.; Houghton, Richard

    People alter the landscape primarily to appropriate ecosystem goods such as food, fiber, and timber for human consumption. Unintended consequences for ecosystems vary according to the type of land-use change, e.g., forest clearing for agriculture, grassland conversion for grazing, or urban expansion, as well as the underlying ecological characteristics, e.g., humid vs. dry, phosphorus vs. nitrogen-limited, or tropical vs. temperate. The ecosystem responses potentially alter future abilities to provide ecosystem goods and influence future land-use decisions. This volume addresses five major ecosystem responses to land-use change: hydrological, climatic, biogeochemical, human health, and biological diversity. The chapters summarize current knowledge from the perspectives of different disciplines and present analyses from many parts of the world in different ecological and socioeconomic settings. This introductory chapter develops a framework for understanding and communicating the multiple ecosystem responses as an essential input to societal decisions about land use.

  5. Implications of land use change in tropical northern Africa under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brücher, T.; Claussen, M.; Raddatz, T.

    2015-12-01

    A major link between climate and humans in tropical northern Africa, and the Sahel in particular, is land use and associated land cover change, mainly where subsistence farming prevails. Here we assess possible feedbacks between the type of land use and harvest intensity and climate by analysing a series of idealized GCM experiments using the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The baseline for these experiments is a simulation forced by the RCP8.5 (radiation concentration pathway) scenario, which includes strong greenhouse gas emissions and anthropogenic land cover changes. The anthropogenic land cover changes in the RCP8.5 scenario include a mixture of pasture and agriculture. In subsequent simulations, we replace the entire area affected by anthropogenic land cover change in the region between the Sahara in the north and the Guinean Coast in the south (4 to 20° N) with either pasture or agriculture. In a second set-up we vary the amount of harvest in the case of agriculture. The RCP8.5 baseline simulation reveals strong changes in the area mean agriculture and monsoon rainfall. In comparison with these changes, any variation of the type of land use in the study area leads to very small, mostly insignificantly small, additional differences in mean temperature and annual precipitation change in this region. These findings are only based on the specific set-up of our experiments, which only focuses on variations in the kind of land use, and not the increase in land use, over the 21st century, nor whether land use is considered at all. Within the uncertainty of the representation of land use in current ESMs, our study suggests marginal feedback between land use changes and climate changes triggered by strong greenhouse gas emissions. Hence as a good approximation, climate can be considered as an external forcing: models investigating land-use-conflict dynamics can run offline by prescribing seasonal or mean values of climate as a boundary condition

  6. Land use effects on green water fluxes from agricultural production in Mato Grosso, Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lathuilliere, M. J.; Johnson, M. S.; Donner, S. D.

    2010-12-01

    The blue water/green water paradigm is increasingly used to differentiate between subsequent routing of precipitation once it reaches the soil. “Blue” water is that which infiltrates deep in the soil to become streams and aquifers, while “green” water is that which remains in the soil and is either evaporated (non-productive green water) or transpired by plants (productive green water). This differentiation in the fate of precipitation has provided a new way of thinking about water resources, especially in agriculture for which better use of productive green water may help to relieve stresses from irrigation (blue water). The state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, presents a unique case for the study of green water fluxes due to an expanding agricultural land base planted primarily to soybean, maize, sugar cane, and cotton. These products are highly dependent on green water resources in Mato Grosso where crops are almost entirely rain-fed. We estimate the change in green water fluxes from agricultural expansion for the 2000-2008 period in the state of Mato Grosso based on agricultural production data from the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatísticas and a modified Penman-Monteith equation. Initial results for seven municipalities suggest an increase in agricultural green water fluxes, ranging from 1-10% per year, due primarily to increases in cropped areas. Further research is underway to elucidate the role of green water flux variations from land use practices on the regional water cycle.

  7. CORAL RESPONSES TO CLIMATE AND LAND USE CHANGES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Fisher, William S., Debbie L. Santavy, John E. Rogers and Richard G. Zepp. In press. Coral Responses to Climate and Land Use Changes (Abstract). To be presented at the SETAC Fourth World Congress, 14-18 November 2004, Portland, OR. 1 p. (ERL,GB R1019).

    Coral reefs have ex...

  8. Changes in Carbon Emissions in Colombian Savannas Derived From Recent Land use and Land Cover Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Etter, A.; Sarmiento, A.

    2007-12-01

    The global contribution of carbon emissions from land use dynamics and change to the global carbon (C) cycle is still uncertain, a major concern in global change modeling. Carbon emission from fires in the tropics is significant and represents 9% of the net primary production, and 50% of worldwide C emissions from fires are attributable to savanna fires. Such emissions may vary significantly due to differences in ecosystem types. Most savanna areas are devoted to grazing land uses making methane emissions also important in savanna ecosystems. Land use change driven by intensification of grazing and cropping has become a major factor affecting C emission dynamics from savanna regions. Colombia has some 17 MHa of mesic savannas which have been historically burned. Due to changes in market demands and improved accessibility during the last 20 years, important areas of savannas changed land use from predominantly extensive grazing to crops and intensive grazing systems. This research models and evaluates the impacts of such land use changes on the spatial and temporal burning patterns and C emissions in the Orinoco savannas of Colombia. We address the effects of land use change patterns using remote sensing data from MODIS and Landsat, ecosystem mapping products, and spatial GIS analysis. First we map the expansion of the agricultural frontier from the 1980s-2000s. We then model the changes in land use from the 1980s using a statistical modeling approach to analyze and quantify the impact of accessibility, ecosystem type and land tenure. We calculate the effects on C emissions from fire regimes and other sources of C based on patterns and extent of burned areas in the 2000s for different savanna ecosystem types and land uses. In the Llanos the fire regime exhibits a marked seasonal variability with most fire events occurring during the dry season between December-March. Our analysis shows that fire frequencies vary consistently between 0.6 and 2.8 fires.yr-1 per 2

  9. Potential climate forcing of land use and land cover change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, D. S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Kloster, S.

    2014-12-01

    Pressure on land resources is expected to increase as global population continues to climb and the world becomes more affluent, swelling the demand for food. Changing climate may exert additional pressures on natural lands as present-day productive regions may shift, or soil quality may degrade, and the recent rise in demand for biofuels increases competition with edible crops for arable land. Given these projected trends there is a need to understand the global climate impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC). Here we quantify the climate impacts of global LULCC in terms of modifications to the balance between incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere (radiative forcing, RF) that are caused by changes in long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol effects, and land surface albedo. We attribute historical changes in terrestrial carbon storage, global fire emissions, secondary organic aerosol emissions, and surface albedo to LULCC using simulations with the Community Land Model version 3.5. These LULCC emissions are combined with estimates of agricultural emissions of important trace gases and mineral dust in two sets of Community Atmosphere Model simulations to calculate the RF of changes in atmospheric chemistry and aerosol concentrations attributed to LULCC. With all forcing agents considered together, we show that 40% (±16%) of the present-day anthropogenic RF can be attributed to LULCC. Changes in the emission of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols from LULCC enhance the total LULCC RF by a factor of 2 to 3 with respect to the LULCC RF from CO2 alone. This enhancement factor also applies to projected LULCC RF, which we compute for four future scenarios associated with the Representative Concentration Pathways. We attribute total RFs between 0.9 and 1.9 W m-2 to LULCC for the year 2100 (relative to a pre-industrial state). To place an upper bound on the potential of LULCC to alter the global radiation budget

  10. Potential climate forcing of land use and land cover change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, D. S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Kloster, S.

    2014-05-01

    Pressure on land resources is expected to increase as global population continues to climb and the world becomes more affluent, swelling the demand for food. Changing climate may exert additional pressures on natural lands as present day productive regions may shift, or soil quality may degrade, and the recent rise in demand for biofuels increases competition with edible crops for arable land. Given these projected trends there is a need to understand the global climate impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC). Here we quantify the climate impacts of global LULCC in terms of modifications to the balance between incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere (radiative forcing; RF) that are caused by changes in long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol effects and land surface albedo. We simulate historical changes to terrestrial carbon storage, global fire emissions, secondary organic aerosol emissions, and surface albedo from LULCC using the Community Land Model version 3.5. These LULCC emissions are combined with estimates of agricultural emissions of important trace gases and mineral dust in two sets of Community Atmosphere Model simulations to calculate the RF from LULCC impacts on atmospheric chemistry and changes in aerosol concentrations. With all forcing agents considered together, we show that 45% (+30%, -20%) of the present-day anthropogenic RF can be attributed to LULCC. Changes in the emission of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols from LULCC enhance the total LULCC RF by a factor of 2 to 3 with respect to the LULCC RF from CO2 alone. This enhancement factor also applies to projected LULCC RF, which we compute for four future scenarios associated with the Representative Concentration Pathways. We calculate total RFs between 1 to 2 W m-2 from LULCC for the year 2100 (relative to a preindustrial state). To place an upper bound on the potential of LULCC to alter the global radiation budget we include a fifth

  11. Human modification of the atmospheric water cycle through land use change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Keys, Patrick; Fetzer, Ingo; Savenije, Hubert; Gordon, Line

    2016-04-01

    Human society have radically transformed the land surface of the Earth and through that altered the hydrological cycle in various way. In this research, we quantify and analyse the global changes to terrestrial moisture recycling from anthropogenic driven modifications in land cover and land use. We simulate evaporation and moisture recycling in potential, historical, and current land cover and land use scenarios by coupling a global hydrological model (STEAM) with a moisture tracking scheme (WAM-2layers). Moreover, we investigate where and when rainfall change occurs, assuming that change in moisture recycling translates into change in rainfall. Although changes in the hydrological flows are limited at the global and annual average, the spatial and temporal differences are significant. Propagation of land use change into rainfall change appears non-uniformly distributed. In particular, disappearance of vegetation appears to reduce the dry season length and affect the dry season rainfall more than the average. Thus, land use change in certain regions potentially affects agricultural development in downwind regions by altering the total rainfall as well as the dry season length. This study shows how land resources and water availability are tightly connected also over large distances, and points to the need to study land use change and climate change in conjunction.

  12. Agriculture, Food Production, and Rural Land Use in Advanced Placement® Human Geography

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moseley, William G.; Watson, Nancy H.

    2016-01-01

    ''Agriculture, Food, and Rural Land Use" constitutes a major part of the AP Human Geography course outline. This article explores challenging topics to teach, emerging research trends in agricultural geography, and sample teaching approaches for concretizing abstract topics. It addresses content identified as "essential knowledge"…

  13. Climate, Agriculture, Energy and the Optimal Allocation of Global Land Use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinbuks, J.; Hertel, T. W.

    2011-12-01

    The allocation of the world's land resources over the course of the next century has become a pressing research question. Continuing population increases, improving, land-intensive diets amongst the poorest populations in the world, increasing production of biofuels and rapid urbanization in developing countries are all competing for land even as the world looks to land resources to supply more environmental services. The latter include biodiversity and natural lands, as well as forests and grasslands devoted to carbon sequestration. And all of this is taking place in the context of faster than expected climate change which is altering the biophysical environment for land-related activities. The goal of the paper is to determine the optimal profile for global land use in the context of growing commercial demands for food and forest products, increasing non-market demands for ecosystem services, and more stringent GHG mitigation targets. We then seek to assess how the uncertainty associated with the underlying biophysical and economic processes influences this optimal profile of land use, in light of potential irreversibility in these decisions. We develop a dynamic long-run, forward-looking partial equilibrium framework in which the societal objective function being maximized places value on food production, liquid fuels (including biofuels), timber production, forest carbon and biodiversity. Given the importance of land-based emissions to any GHG mitigation strategy, as well as the potential impacts of climate change itself on the productivity of land in agriculture, forestry and ecosystem services, we aim to identify the optimal allocation of the world's land resources, over the course of the next century, in the face of alternative GHG constraints. The forestry sector is characterized by multiple forest vintages which add considerable computational complexity in the context of this dynamic analysis. In order to solve this model efficiently, we have employed the

  14. Land use changing and land use optimization of Lake Baikal basin on the example of two key areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solodyankina, S.

    2012-04-01

    Lake Baikal contains roughly 20% of the world's unfrozen surface fresh water. It was declared a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1996. Today levels of urbanization and economic stress on environmental resources is increasing on the shorts of the lake Baikal. The potential of economic development (industry, local tourism, and mining) of the Severobaykalsky and Sludyansky districts is rather high although they are characterized not only by beneficial features for local economy but also by considerable disadvantages for nature of this world valuable territory. This investigation show human-caused landscape changes during economic development of the two key areas in Baikal water catchment basin during 10 years (point of reference is 2000 year). Key areas are 1) the Baikalo-Patomskoe highland in the north of the Baikal catchment basin (Severobaykalsky district, Republic of Buryatia); 2) Khamar-Daban mountain system in the south of the Baikal catchment basin (Sludyansky districy, Irkutsk region). Since 2000 year land use of the territory has changed. Areas of agriculture were reduced but recreation activity on the bank of the lake was increased. Methods of GIS analysis and local statistic analysis of landscape characteristic were used. Nature, rural and urban areas ratio are estimated. Vegetation and soil condition assessment were made. The essence of this research is in helping to make decisions linked to upcoming problems: situation identification, evaluation and forecasting of the potential landscape condition, optimization of land use, mitigation of impact and mapping of territories and nature resources which have a high ecological value or endangered by industrial impact. For this purpose landscape maps of the territories on the base of the remote sensing information and field investigations were created. They used to calculate potential landscape functions of the territory without taking into account present impact of anthropogenic actions. Land use maps for years

  15. PROJECTING LAND-USE CHANGE: A SUMMARY OF THE EFFECTS OF COMMUNITY GROWTH AND CHANGE ON LAND-USE PATTERNS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Many potential clients for land-use change models, such as city and county planners, community groups, and environmental agencies, need better information on the features, strengths, and limitations of various model packages. Because of this growing need, the U.S. Environmental P...

  16. Land use change effects on trace gas fluxes in the forest margins of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veldkamp, Edzo; Purbopuspito, Joko; Corre, Marife D.; Brumme, Rainer; Murdiyarso, Daniel

    2008-06-01

    Land use changes and land use intensification are considered important processes contributing to the increasing concentrations of the greenhouse gases nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) and of nitric oxide (NO), a precursor of ozone. Studies on the effects of land use changes and land use intensification on soil trace gas emissions were mostly conducted in Latin America and only very few in Asia. Here we present results from Central Sulawesi where profound changes in land use and cultivation practices take place: traditional agricultural practices like shifting cultivation and slash-and-burn agriculture are replaced by permanent cultivation systems and introduction of income-generating cash crops like cacao. Our results showed that N2O emissions were higher from cacao agroforestry (35 ± 10 μg N m-2 h-1) than maize (9 ± 2 μg N m-2 h-1), whereas intermediate rates were observed from secondary forests (25 ± 11 μg N m-2 h-1). NO emissions did not differ among land use systems, ranging from 12 ± 2 μg N m-2 h-1 for cacao agroforestry and secondary forest to 18 ± 2 μg N m-2 h-1 for maize. CH4 uptake was higher for maize (-30 ± 4 μg C m-2 h-1) than cacao agroforestry (-18 ± 2 μg C m-2 h-1) and intermediate rates were measured from secondary forests (-25 ± 4 μg C m-2 h-1). Combining these data with results from other studies in this area, we present chronosequence effects of land use change on trace gas emissions from natural forest, through maize cultivation, to cacao agroforestry (with or without fertilizer). Compared to the original forests, this typical land use change in the study area clearly led to higher N2O emissions and lower CH4 uptake with age of cacao agroforestry systems. We conclude that this common land use sequence in the area combined with the increasing use of fertilizer will strongly increase soil trace gas emissions. We suggest that the future hot spot regions of high N2O (and to a lesser extend NO) emissions in the tropics are those

  17. Research Needs for Carbon Management in Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Negra, C.; Lovejoy, T.; Ojima, D. S.; Ashton, R.; Havemann, T.; Eaton, J.

    2009-12-01

    Improved management of terrestrial carbon in agriculture, forestry, and other land use sectors is a necessary part of climate change mitigation. It is likely that governments will agree in Copenhagen in December 2009 to incentives for improved management of some forms of terrestrial carbon, including maintaining existing terrestrial carbon (e.g., avoiding deforestation) and creating new terrestrial carbon (e.g., afforestation, soil management). To translate incentives into changes in land management and terrestrial carbon stocks, a robust technical and scientific information base is required. All terrestrial carbon pools (and other greenhouse gases from the terrestrial system) that interact with the atmosphere at timescales less than centuries, and all land uses, have documented mitigation potential, however, most activity has focused on above-ground forest biomass. Despite research advances in understanding emissions reduction and sequestration associated with different land management techniques, there has not yet been broad-scale implementation of land-based mitigation activity in croplands, peatlands, grasslands and other land uses. To maximize long-term global terrestrial carbon volumes, further development of relevant data, methodologies and technologies are needed to complement policy and financial incentives. The Terrestrial Carbon Group, in partnership with UN-REDD agencies, the World Bank and CGIAR institutions, is reviewing literature, convening leading experts and surveying key research institutions to develop a Roadmap for Terrestrial Carbon: Research Needs for Implementation of Carbon Management in Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses. This work will summarize the existing knowledge base for emissions reductions and sequestration through land management as well as the current availability of tools and methods for measurement and monitoring of terrestrial carbon. Preliminary findings indicate a number of areas for future work. Enhanced information

  18. Protecting Future Biodiversity via Re-allocation of Future Land-use Change Patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chini, L. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Jantz, S.; Brooks, T.; Leon, C.; Waldhoff, S.; Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    Future scenarios, such as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), are typically designed to meet a radiative forcing target while also producing enough food and energy for a growing population. In the assessment process, impacts of these scenarios for other important variables such as biodiversity loss are considered 'downstream', after the future climate has been simulated within Earth System Models. However, the direct land-use impacts associated with future scenarios often have as much impact on these issues as the changing climate; in addition, many different patterns of land-use can result in the same radiative forcing target. In the case of biodiversity loss, one of the greatest contributors to species extinction is the loss of habitat such as primary forest, which is a direct result of land-use change decisions. By considering issues such as the preservation of future biodiversity 'up-front' in the scenario process, we can design a scenario that not only meets a radiative forcing target and feeds a growing planet, but also preserves as much habitat as possible through careful spatial allocation of future land-use change. Our Global Land-use Model (GLM) is used to provide 'harmonized' land-use data for the RCP process. GLM preserves as much information as possible from the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) while spatially allocating regional IAM land-use change data, ensuring a continuous transition from historical to future land-use states, and producing annual, gridded (0.5°×0.5°), fractional land-use states and all associated transitions. In this presentation we will present results from new GLM simulations in which land-use change decisions are constrained to meet the mutual goals of protecting important eco-regions (e.g. biodiversity hotspots) from future land-use change, providing enough food and fiber for a growing planet, and remaining consistent with the radiative forcing targets of the future scenarios. Trade-offs between agricultural

  19. Disease emergence from global climate and land use change.

    PubMed

    Patz, Jonathan A; Olson, Sarah H; Uejio, Christopher K; Gibbs, Holly K

    2008-11-01

    Climate change and land use change can affect multiple infectious diseases of humans, acting either independently or synergistically. Expanded efforts in empiric and future scenario-based risk assessment are required to anticipate problems. Moreover, the many health impacts of climate and land use change must be examined in the context of the myriad other environmental and behavioral determinants of disease. To optimize prevention capabilities, upstream environmental approaches must be part of any intervention, rather than assaults on single agents of disease. Clinicians must develop stronger ties, not only to public health officials and scientists, but also to earth and environmental scientists and policy makers. Without such efforts, we will inevitably benefit our current generation at the cost of generations to come. PMID:19061763

  20. ASSESSING THE RELATIVE AND COMBINED IMPACTS OF FUTURE LAND-USE AND CLIMATE CHANGES ON NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this paper, we discuss the potential water quality impacts of future land-use and climate changes. The Little Miami River Basin was used as a case study. It is a predominantly agricultural watershed in southwestern Ohio (U.S.A.) that has experienced land-use modifications. ...

  1. Human ecology in pathogenic landscapes: two hypotheses on how land use change drives viral emergence

    PubMed Central

    Murray, Kris. A.; Daszak, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The emergence of novel viral diseases is driven by socioeconomic, demographic and environmental changes. These include land use changes such as deforestation, agricultural expansion and habitat degradation. However, the links between land use change and disease emergence are poorly understood and likely complex. In this review, we propose two hypotheses for the mechanisms by which land use change can lead to viral emergence: 1) by perturbing disease dynamics in multi-host disease systems via impacts on cross-species transmission rates (the ‘perturbation’ hypothesis); and 2) by allowing exposure of novel hosts to a rich pool of pathogen diversity (the ‘pathogen pool’ hypothesis). We discuss ways that these two hypotheses might be tested using a combination of ecological and virological approaches, and how this may provide novel control and prevention strategies. PMID:23415415

  2. Evaluating Impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow using SWAT and land use models based CESM1-CAM5 Climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Tzu Ping; Lin, Yu Pin; Lien, Wan Yu

    2015-04-01

    Climate change projects have various levels of impacts on hydrological cycles around the world. The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which has been just be released in Taiwan, 2014. Since the streamflow run into ocean directly due to the steep terrain and the rainfall difference between wet and dry seasons is apparent; as a result, the allocation water resource reasonable is very challenge in Taiwan, particularly under climate change. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on a small watershed in Taiwan. The AR5 General Circulation Models(GCM) output data was adopted in this study and was downscaled from the monthly to the daily weather data as the input data of hydrological model such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in this study. The spatially explicit land uses change model, the Conservation of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s), was applied to simulate land use scenarios in 2020-2039. Combined climate and land use change scenarios were adopted as input data of the hydrological model, the SWAT model, to estimate the future streamflows. With the increasing precipitation, increasing urban area and decreasing agricultural and grass land, the annual streamflow in the most of twenty-three subbasins were also increased. Besides, due to the increasing rainfall in wet season and decreasing rainfall in dry season, the difference of streamflow between wet season and dry season are also increased. This result indicates a more stringent challenge on the water resource management in future. Therefore, impacts on water resource caused by climate change and land use change should be considered in water resource planning for the Datuan river watershed. Keywords: SWAT, GCM, CLUE-s, streamflow, climate change, land use change

  3. Modeling biofuel expansion effects on land use change dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warner, Ethan; Inman, Daniel; Kunstman, Benjamin; Bush, Brian; Vimmerstedt, Laura; Peterson, Steve; Macknick, Jordan; Zhang, Yimin

    2013-03-01

    Increasing demand for crop-based biofuels, in addition to other human drivers of land use, induces direct and indirect land use changes (LUC). Our system dynamics tool is intended to complement existing LUC modeling approaches and to improve the understanding of global LUC drivers and dynamics by allowing examination of global LUC under diverse scenarios and varying model assumptions. We report on a small subset of such analyses. This model provides insights into the drivers and dynamic interactions of LUC (e.g., dietary choices and biofuel policy) and is not intended to assert improvement in numerical results relative to other works. Demand for food commodities are mostly met in high food and high crop-based biofuel demand scenarios, but cropland must expand substantially. Meeting roughly 25% of global transportation fuel demand by 2050 with biofuels requires >2 times the land used to meet food demands under a presumed 40% increase in per capita food demand. In comparison, the high food demand scenario requires greater pastureland for meat production, leading to larger overall expansion into forest and grassland. Our results indicate that, in all scenarios, there is a potential for supply shortfalls, and associated upward pressure on prices, of food commodities requiring higher land use intensity (e.g., beef) which biofuels could exacerbate.

  4. Land use, land cover change analysis with multitemporal remote sensing data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suzanchi, K.; Sahoo, R. N.; Kalra, N.; Pandey, S.

    2006-12-01

    Presently, unplanned changes of land use have become a major problem. Most land use changes occur without a clear and logical planning with little attention to their environmental impacts. In last four-decade, urban growth in Delhi has occurred rapidly in some unwanted direction and destroyed valuable agriculture lands in its surround. Rapid changes in land use / cover occurring over large areas; remote sensing technology is an essential and useful tool in monitoring of this area. Monitoring of land use/cover change are increasingly reliant on information derived from remotely sensed data. Such information provides the data link to other techniques to understand the human processes behind these changes. Specially, in agricultural area in suburb (or countryside) of a metropolitan city like Delhi. In this paper different change detection approaches (such as Post classification comparison and spectral change detection techniques) were evaluated with available images of National Capital Territory of Delhi during 1973 to 2001. These techniques were analyzed independently, using the concept of well-known procedures to define the best approach/methodology for addressing the change detection issues in this study.

  5. Past agricultural land use and present-day fire regimes can interact to determine the nature of seed predation.

    PubMed

    Stuhler, John D; Orrock, John L

    2016-06-01

    Historical agriculture and present-day fire regimes can have significant effects on contemporary ecosystems. Although past agricultural land use can lead to long-term changes in plant communities, it remains unclear whether these persistent land-use legacies alter plant-consumer interactions, such as seed predation, and whether contemporary disturbance (e.g., fire) alters the effects of historical agriculture on these interactions. We conducted a study at 27 sites distributed across 80,300 ha in post-agricultural and non-agricultural longleaf pine woodlands with different degrees of fire frequency to test the hypothesis that past and present-day disturbances that alter plant communities can subsequently alter seed predation. We quantified seed removal by arthropods and rodents for Tephrosia virginiana and Vernonia angustifolia, species of conservation interest. We found that the effects of land-use history and fire frequency on seed removal were contingent on granivore guild and microhabitat characteristics. Tephrosia virginiana removal was greater in low fire frequency sites, due to greater seed removal by rodents. Although overall removal of V. angustifolia did not differ among habitats, rodents removed more seeds than arthropods at post-agricultural sites and non-agricultural sites with low fire frequencies, but not at non-agricultural sites with high fire frequencies. Land-use history and fire frequency also affected the relationship between microhabitat characteristics and removal of V. angustifolia. Our results suggest that historical agriculture and present-day fire regimes may alter seed predation by shifting the impact of rodent and arthropod seed predators among habitats, with potential consequences for the establishment of rare plant species consumed by one or both predators. PMID:26905418

  6. Land use intensification alters ecosystem multifunctionality via loss of biodiversity and changes to functional composition.

    PubMed

    Allan, Eric; Manning, Pete; Alt, Fabian; Binkenstein, Julia; Blaser, Stefan; Blüthgen, Nico; Böhm, Stefan; Grassein, Fabrice; Hölzel, Norbert; Klaus, Valentin H; Kleinebecker, Till; Morris, E Kathryn; Oelmann, Yvonne; Prati, Daniel; Renner, Swen C; Rillig, Matthias C; Schaefer, Martin; Schloter, Michael; Schmitt, Barbara; Schöning, Ingo; Schrumpf, Marion; Solly, Emily; Sorkau, Elisabeth; Steckel, Juliane; Steffen-Dewenter, Ingolf; Stempfhuber, Barbara; Tschapka, Marco; Weiner, Christiane N; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Werner, Michael; Westphal, Catrin; Wilcke, Wolfgang; Fischer, Markus

    2015-08-01

    Global change, especially land-use intensification, affects human well-being by impacting the delivery of multiple ecosystem services (multifunctionality). However, whether biodiversity loss is a major component of global change effects on multifunctionality in real-world ecosystems, as in experimental ones, remains unclear. Therefore, we assessed biodiversity, functional composition and 14 ecosystem services on 150 agricultural grasslands differing in land-use intensity. We also introduce five multifunctionality measures in which ecosystem services were weighted according to realistic land-use objectives. We found that indirect land-use effects, i.e. those mediated by biodiversity loss and by changes to functional composition, were as strong as direct effects on average. Their strength varied with land-use objectives and regional context. Biodiversity loss explained indirect effects in a region of intermediate productivity and was most damaging when land-use objectives favoured supporting and cultural services. In contrast, functional composition shifts, towards fast-growing plant species, strongly increased provisioning services in more inherently unproductive grasslands. PMID:26096863

  7. Modeling Land Use/Cover Changes in an African Rural Landscape

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamusoko, C.; Aniya, M.

    2006-12-01

    Land use/cover changes are analyzed in the Bindura district of Zimbabwe, Africa through the integration of data from a time series of Landsat imagery (1973, 1989 and 2000), a household survey and GIS coverages. We employed a hybrid supervised/unsupervised classification approach to generate land use/cover maps from which landscape metrics were calculated. Population and other household variables were derived from a sample of surveyed villages, while road accessibility and slope were obtained from topographic maps and digital elevation model, respectively. Markov-cellular automata modeling approach that incorporates Markov chain analysis, cellular automata and multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) / multi-objective allocation (MOLA) procedures was used to simulate land use/cover changes. A GIS-based MCE technique computed transition potential maps, whereas transition areas were derived from the 1973-2000 land use/cover maps using the Markov chain analysis. A 5 x 5 cellular automata filter was used to develop a spatially explicit contiguity- weighting factor to change the cells based on its previous state and those of its neighbors, while MOLA resolved land use/cover class allocation conflicts. The kappa index of agreement was used for model validation. Observed trends in land use/cover changes indicate that deforestation and the encroachment of cultivation in woodland areas is a continuous trend in the study area. This suggests that economic activities driven by agricultural expansion were the main causes of landscape fragmentation, leading to landscape degradation. Rigorous calibration of transition potential maps done by a MCE algorithm and Markovian transition probabilities produced accurate inputs for the simulation of land use/cover changes. Overall standard kappa index of agreement ranged from 0.73 to 0.83, which is sufficient for simulating land use/cover changes in the study area. Land use/cover simulations under the 1989 and 2000 scenario indicated further

  8. Consequences of land use and land cover change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Slonecker, E. Terrence; Barnes, Christopher; Karstensen, Krista; Milheim, Lesley E.; Roig-Silva, Coral M.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Climate and Land Use Change Mission Area is one of seven USGS mission areas that focuses on making substantial scientific "...contributions to understanding how Earth systems interact, respond to, and cause global change". Using satellite and other remotely sensed data, USGS scientists monitor patterns of land cover change over space and time at regional, national, and global scales. These data are analyzed to understand the causes and consequences of changing land cover, such as economic impacts, effects on water quality and availability, the spread of invasive species, habitats and biodiversity, carbon fluctuations, and climate variability. USGS scientists are among the leaders in the study of land cover, which is a term that generally refers to the vegetation and artificial structures that cover the land surface. Examples of land cover include forests, grasslands, wetlands, water, crops, and buildings. Land use involves human activities that take place on the land. For example, "grass" is a land cover, whereas pasture and recreational parks are land uses that produce a cover of grass.

  9. Efficiency of different techniques to identify changes in land use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zornoza, Raúl; Mateix-Solera, Jorge; Gerrero, César

    2013-04-01

    The need for the development of sensitive and efficient methodologies for soil quality evaluation is increasing. The ability to assess soil quality and identify key soil properties that serve as indicators of soil function is complicated by the multiplicity of physical, chemical and biological factors that control soil processes. In the mountain region of the Mediterranean Basin of Spain, almond trees have been cultivated in terraced orchards for centuries. These crops are immersed in the Mediterranean forest scenery, configuring a mosaic landscape where orchards are integrated in the forest masses. In the last decades, almond orchards are being abandoned, leading to an increase in vegetation cover, since abandoned fields are naturally colonized by the surrounded natural vegetation. Soil processes and properties are expected to be associated with vegetation successional dynamics. Thus, the establishment of suitable parameters to monitor soil quality related to land use changes is particularly important to guarantee the regeneration of the mature community. In this study, we selected three land uses, constituted by forest, almond trees orchards, and orchards abandoned between 10 and 15 years previously to sampling. Sampling was carried out in four different locations in SE Spain. The main purpose was to evaluate if changes in management have significantly influenced different sets of soil characteristics. For this purpose, we used a discriminant analysis (DA). The different sets of soil characteristics tested in this study were 1: physical, chemical and biochemical properties; 2: soil near infrared (NIR) spectra; and 3: phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs). After the DA performed with the sets 1 and 2, the three land uses were clearly separated by the two first discriminant functions, and more than 85 % of the samples were correctly classified (grouped). Using the sets 3 and 4 for DA resulted in a slightly better separation of land uses, being more than 85% of the

  10. Land use changes assessment using spatial data: Case study in Cong river basin - Thai Nguyen City - Viet Nam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nguyen, Hieu

    Land use changes are being interested in most countries, especially in developing countries. Because land use changes always impacts on sustainable development not only in a region or a country but also in whole the world. Viet Nam is a developing country, in the last 10 years, land uses have rapidly changed in most provinces. Many of agriculture areas, forest areas have changed for various purposes as urban sprawl, establishing new industrial parks, public areas, mining and other land uses relate to human activities or economic function associated with a specific piece of land. Beside efficiencies of economic and society, then environment issues have been threatening serious pollution, are from land use changes. Remote sensing images application on studying land use changes, has been done in many countries around the world, and has brought high efficiencies. However, this application is still very new and limited in Viet Nam due to lacking of materials, tools, experts of remote sensing. This study used spatial data as Landsat TM images, SPOT5 images and land use planning maps to rapidly assess on happenings of land uses in the period 2000 -2010 in Cong river basin (Thai Nguyen City, Viet Nam), and to forecast the changes of land uses in the period 2010 - 2020. The results had a good accuracy and to be important references for authorities, policy makers in local land use.

  11. Estimating Impacts of Climate Change Policy on Land Use: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Agriculture is important to New Zealand’s economy. Like other primary producers, New Zealand strives to increase agricultural output while maintaining environmental integrity. Utilising modelling to explore the economic, environmental and land use impacts of policy is critical to understand the likely effects on the sector. Key deficiencies within existing land use and land cover change models are the lack of heterogeneity in farmers and their behaviour, the role that social networks play in information transfer, and the abstraction of the global and regional economic aspects within local-scale approaches. To resolve these issues we developed the Agent-based Rural Land Use New Zealand model. The model utilises a partial equilibrium economic model and an agent-based decision-making framework to explore how the cumulative effects of individual farmer’s decisions affect farm conversion and the resulting land use at a catchment scale. The model is intended to assist in the development of policy to shape agricultural land use intensification in New Zealand. We illustrate the model, by modelling the impact of a greenhouse gas price on farm-level land use, net revenue, and environmental indicators such as nutrient losses and soil erosion for key enterprises in the Hurunui and Waiau catchments of North Canterbury in New Zealand. Key results from the model show that farm net revenue is estimated to increase over time regardless of the greenhouse gas price. Net greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to decline over time, even under a no GHG price baseline, due to an expansion of forestry on low productivity land. Higher GHG prices provide a greater net reduction of emissions. While social and geographic network effects have minimal impact on net revenue and environmental outputs for the catchment, they do have an effect on the spatial arrangement of land use and in particular the clustering of enterprises. PMID:25996591

  12. Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

    PubMed

    Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís

    2016-07-01

    Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. PMID:26950650

  13. GCAM 3.0 Agriculture and Land Use: Data Sources and Methods

    SciTech Connect

    Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Calvin, Katherine V.; Emanuel, William R.; Nathan, Mayda; Zhou, Yuyu

    2011-12-12

    This report presents the data processing methods used in the GCAM 3.0 agriculture and land use component, starting from all source data used, and detailing all calculations and assumptions made in generating the model inputs. The report starts with a brief introduction to modeling of agriculture and land use in GCAM 3.0, and then provides documentation of the data and methods used for generating the base-year dataset and future scenario parameters assumed in the model input files. Specifically, the report addresses primary commodity production, secondary (animal) commodity production, disposition of commodities, land allocation, land carbon contents, and land values.

  14. Land use change and terrestrial carbon stocks in Senegal

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Woomer, P.L.; Tieszen, L.L.; Tappan, G.; Toure, A.; Sall, M.

    2004-01-01

    Environmental degradation resulting from long-term drought and land use change has affected terrestrial carbon (C) stocks within Africa's Sahel. We estimated Senegal's terrestrial carbon stocks in 1965, 1985, and 2000 using an inventory procedure involving satellite images revealing historical land use change, and recent field measurements of standing carbon stocks occurring in soil and plants. Senegal was divided into eight ecological zones containing 11 land uses. In 2000, savannas, cultivated lands, forests, and steppes were the four largest land uses in Senegal, occupying 70, 22, 2.7, and 2.3 percent of Senegal's 199,823km2. System C stocks ranged from 9tCha-1 in degraded savannas in the north, to 113tCha-1 in the remnant forests of the Senegal River Valley. This approach resulted in estimated total C stocks of 1019 and 727MTC between 1965 and 2000, respectively, indicating a loss of 292MTC over 35 years. The proportion of C residing in biomass decreased with time, from 55 percent in 1965 to 38 percent in 2000. Calculated terrestrial C flux for 1993 was -7.5MTCyear-1 and had declined by 17 percent over the previous 18 years. Most of the terrestrial C flux in 1993 was attributed to biomass C reduction. Human disturbance accounted for only 22 percent of biomass C loss in 1993, suggesting that the effects of long-term Sahelian drought continue to play an overriding role in ecosystem change. Some carbon mitigation strategies for Senegal were investigated, including potential C sequestration levels. Opportunities for C mitigation exist but are constrained by available knowledge and access to resources. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Transformative optimisation of agricultural land use to meet future food demands.

    PubMed

    Koh, Lian Pin; Koellner, Thomas; Ghazoul, Jaboury

    2013-01-01

    The human population is expected to reach ∼9 billion by 2050. The ensuing demands for water, food and energy would intensify land-use conflicts and exacerbate environmental impacts. Therefore we urgently need to reconcile our growing consumptive needs with environmental protection. Here, we explore the potential of a land-use optimisation strategy to increase global agricultural production on two major groups of crops: cereals and oilseeds. We implemented a spatially-explicit computer simulation model across 173 countries based on the following algorithm: on any cropland, always produce the most productive crop given all other crops currently being produced locally and the site-specific biophysical, economic and technological constraints to production. Globally, this strategy resulted in net increases in annual production of cereal and oilseed crops from 1.9 billion to 2.9 billion tons (46%), and from 427 million to 481 million tons (13%), respectively, without any change in total land area harvested for cereals or oilseeds. This thought experiment demonstrates that, in theory, more optimal use of existing farmlands could help meet future crop demands. In practice there might be cultural, social and institutional barriers that limit the full realisation of this theoretical potential. Nevertheless, these constraints have to be weighed against the consequences of not producing enough food, particularly in regions already facing food shortages. PMID:24255807

  16. Modeling of land use and reservoir effects on nonpoint source pollution in a highly agricultural basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shu-Guang

    2012-01-01

    Nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is tightly linked to land use activities that determine the sources and magnitudes of pollutant loadings to stream water. The pollutant loads may also be alleviated within reservoirs because of the physical interception resulting from changed hydrological regimes and other biochemical processes. It is important but challenging to assess the NPS pollution processes with human effects due to the measurement limitations. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of human activities such as land uses and reservoir operation on the hydrological and NPS pollution processes in a highly agricultural area-the Iowa River Basin-using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The evaluation of model performance at multiple sites reveals that SWAT can consistently simulate the daily streamflow, and monthly/annual sediment and nutrient loads (nitrate nitrogen and mineral phosphorus) in the basin. We also used the calibrated model to estimate the trap efficiencies of sediment (~78%) and nutrients (~30%) in the Coralville Reservoir within the basin. These non-negligible effects emphasize the significance of incorporating the sediment and nutrient removal mechanisms into watershed system studies. The spatial quantification of the critical NPS pollution loads can help identify hot-spot areas that are likely locations for the best management practices.

  17. Implications of land use change in tropical West Africa under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brücher, Tim; Claussen, Martin

    2015-04-01

    Northern Africa, and the Sahel in particular, are highly vulnerable to climate change, due to strong exposure to increasing temperature, precipitation variability, and population growth. A major link between climate and humans in this region is land use and associated land cover change, mainly where subsistence farming prevails. But how strongly does climate change affect land use and how strongly does land use feeds back into climate change? To which extent may climate-induced water, food and wood shortages exacerbate conflict potential and lead changes in land use and to migration? Estimates of possible changes in African climate vary among the Earth System Models participating in the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) exercise, except for the region adjacent to the Mediterranean Sea, where a significant decrease of precipitation emerges. While all models agree in a strong temperature increase, rainfall uncertainties for most parts of the Sahara, Sahel, and Sudan are higher. Here we present results of complementary experiments based on extreme and idealized land use change scenarios within a future climate.. We use the MPI-ESM forced with a strong green house gas scenario (RCP8.5) and apply an additional land use forcing by varying largely the intensity and kind of agricultural practice. By these transient experiments (until 2100) we elaborate the additional impact on climate due to strong land use forcing. However, the differences are mostly insignificant. The greenhouse gas caused temperature increase and the high variability in the West African Monsoon rainfall superposes the minor changes in climate due to land use. While simulated climate key variables like precipitation and temperature are not distinguishable from the CMIP5 RCP8.5 results, an additional greening is simulated, when crops are demanded. Crops have lower water usage than pastureland has. This benefits available soil water, which is taken up by the natural vegetation and makes it more

  18. Evaluating Policy Options for Biofuel Land Use Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Witcover, J.; Yeh, S.; Msangi, S.

    2012-12-01

    The use of biofuels leads to global land use change (LUC) through increased land competition. LUC poses risks such as increased greenhouse gas emissions and food prices, that policymakers must balance against biofuel objectives. This paper examines policy approaches to lower LUC risk from biofuels. We propose a three-pronged policy approach: (1) promoting feedstocks that rely less on land; (2) reducing LUC risk for land-using feedstocks; and (3) stimulating investments that increase land productivity and environmental protection. We illustrate possibilities for model-based evaluation of LUC policy design options using two linked partial economic equilibrium simulation models (BEPAM/IMPACT). While the modeling addresses only a subset of mitigation options presented (including an 'iLUC factor'), it illustrates how this approach can shed light on the geographical distribution and magnitude of LUC resulting from specific policy designs.

  19. Forecasting the Effects of Land-Use Change on Forest Rodents in Indiana

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rizkalla, Carol E.; Swihart, Robert K.

    2009-11-01

    Forest cover in the upper Wabash River basin in Indiana was fragmented due to agricultural conversion beginning more than 175 years ago. Currently, urban expansion is an important driver of land-use change in the basin. A land transformation model was applied to the basin to forecast land use from 2000 to 2020. We assessed the effect of this projected land-use change scenario on five forest rodent species at three scales: using occupancy models at the patch level, proportional occupancy models at the landscape level, and ecologically scaled landscape indices to assess the change in connectivity at the watershed level. At the patch and landscape scales, occupancy models had low predictability but suggest that gray squirrels are most susceptible to land-use change. At the watershed scale, declines in connectivity did not correspond with the decline of forest. This study highlights the importance of map resolution and consideration of matrix elements in constructing forecast models. Unforeseen drivers of land use, such as changing economic incentives, may also have important ramifications.

  20. Assessment of watershed regionalization for the land use change parameterization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Randusová, Beata; Kohnová, Silvia; Studvová, Zuzana; Marková, Romana; Nosko, Radovan

    2016-04-01

    The estimation of design discharges and water levels of extreme floods is one of the most important parts of the design process for a large number of engineering projects and studies. Floods and other natural hazards initiated by climate, soil, and land use changes are highly important in the 21st century. Flood risks and design flood estimation is particularly challenging. Methods of design flood estimation can be applied either locally or regionally. To obtain the design values in such cases where no recorded data exist, many countries have adopted procedures that fit the local conditions and requirements. One of these methods is the Soil Conservation Service - Curve number (SCS-CN) method which is often used in design flood estimation for ungauged sites. The SCS-CN method is an empirical rainfall-runoff model developed by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (formerly called the Soil Conservation Service or SCS). The runoff curve number (CN) is based on the hydrological soil characteristics, land use, land management and antecedent saturation conditions of soil. This study is focused on development of the SCS-CN methodology for the changing land use conditions in Slovak basins (with the pilot site of the Myjava catchment), which regionalize actual state of land use data and actual rainfall and discharge measurements of the selected river basins. In this study the state of the water erosion and sediment transport along with a subsequent proposal of erosion control measures was analyzed as well. The regionalized SCS-CN method was subsequently used for assessing the effectiveness of this control measure to reduce runoff from the selected basin. For the determination of the sediment transport from the control measure to the Myjava basin, the SDR (Sediment Delivery Ratio) model was used.

  1. Threats and opportunities for freshwater conservation under future land use change scenarios in the United States.

    PubMed

    Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Januchowski-Hartley, Stephanie R; Pracheil, Brenda M; McIntyre, Peter B; Plantinga, Andrew J; Lewis, David J; Radeloff, Volker C

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems provide vital resources for humans and support high levels of biodiversity, yet are severely threatened throughout the world. The expansion of human land uses, such as urban and crop cover, typically degrades water quality and reduces freshwater biodiversity, thereby jeopardizing both biodiversity and ecosystem services. Identifying and mitigating future threats to freshwater ecosystems requires forecasting where land use changes are most likely. Our goal was to evaluate the potential consequences of future land use on freshwater ecosystems in the coterminous United States by comparing alternative scenarios of land use change (2001-2051) with current patterns of freshwater biodiversity and water quality risk. Using an econometric model, each of our land use scenarios projected greater changes in watersheds of the eastern half of the country, where freshwater ecosystems already experience higher stress from human activities. Future urban expansion emerged as a major threat in regions with high freshwater biodiversity (e.g., the Southeast) or severe water quality problems (e.g., the Midwest). Our scenarios reflecting environmentally oriented policies had some positive effects. Subsidizing afforestation for carbon sequestration reduced crop cover and increased natural vegetation in areas that are currently stressed by low water quality, while discouraging urban sprawl diminished urban expansion in areas of high biodiversity. On the other hand, we found that increases in crop commodity prices could lead to increased agricultural threats in areas of high freshwater biodiversity. Our analyses illustrate the potential for policy changes and market factors to influence future land use trends in certain regions of the country, with important consequences for freshwater ecosystems. Successful conservation of aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem services in the United States into the future will require attending to the potential threats and opportunities

  2. Effect of dramatic land use change on gaseous pollutant emissions from biomass burning in Northeastern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Hongmei; Tong, Daniel Q.; Gao, Chuanyu; Wang, Guoping

    2015-02-01

    Biomass burning contributes a substantial amount of gas and particle emissions to the atmosphere. As China's breadbasket, northeast China has experienced dramatic land use change in the past century, converting approximately 55 × 104 ha of wetland into farmland to feed a rapidly growing population. This study combines measured emission factors of dominant crops (rice and soybean) and wetland plants (Calamagrostis angu-stifolia, Carex lasiocarpa, Carex pseudo-curaica) and remote sensing land use data to estimate the effect of the unprecedented land use change on gaseous pollutants emissions from biomass burning. Our biomass burning emission estimates resulting from land use changes have increased because of increased post-harvest crop residue burning and decreased burning of wetland plants. From 1986 to 2005, the total emissions of CO2, CO, CXHY, SO2 and NO have increased by 18.6%, 35.7%, 26.8%, 66.2% and 33.2%, respectively. We have found two trends in agricultural burning: increased dryland crop residue burning and decreased wetland (rice paddy) burning. Our results revealed that the large scale land use change in northeastern China has induced more active biomass-burning emissions. The regional emission inventory of gaseous pollutants derived from this work may be used to support further examination of the subsequent effects on regional climate and air quality simulations with numerical atmospheric models.

  3. Modeling socioeconomic and ecologic aspects of land-use change. A case study of Central Rondonia

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, V.H.; Pedlowski, M.A.; O`Neill, R.V.; Southworth, F.

    1992-11-01

    Land use change is one of the major factors affecting global environmental conditions. Prevalent types of land-use change include replacing forests with agriculture, mines or ranches; forest degradation from collection of firewood; and forest logging. A global effect of wide-scale deforestation is an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which may affect climate. Regional effects include loss of biodiversity and disruption of hydrologic regimes. Local effects include soil erosion, siltation and decreases in soil fertility, loss of extractive reserves, and disruption of indigenous people. Modeling land use change requires combining socioeconomic and ecological factors because socioeconomic forces frequently initiate land-use change and are affected by the subsequent ecological degradation. This paper describes a modeling system that integrates submodels of human colonization and impacts to estimate patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration and land use scenarios. Immigration which follows road building or paving is a major factor in the rapid deforestation of previously inaccessible areas. Roads facilitate colonization, allow access for large machines, and provide transportation routes for mort of raw materials and produce.

  4. Analyzing the Food-Fuel-Environment Tri-Lemma Facing World Agriculture: Global Land Use in the Coming Century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hertel, T. W.; Steinbuks, J.

    2011-12-01

    The number of people which the world must feed is expected to increase by another 3 billion people by 2100. When coupled with significant nutritional improvements for the 2.1 billion people currently living on less than $2/day, this translates into a very substantial rise in the demand for agricultural production. At the same time, the growing use of biomass for energy generation has introduced an important new source of industrial demand in agricultural markets. To compound matters, water, a key input into agricultural production, is rapidly diminishing in availability in large parts of the world and many soils are degrading. In addition, agriculture and forestry are increasingly envisioned as key sectors for climate change mitigation policy. Any serious attempt to reduce land-based emissions will involve changes in the way farming is conducted, as well as placing limits on the expansion of farming - particularly in the tropics, where most of the agricultural land conversion has come at the expense of forests, either directly, or indirectly via a cascading of land use requirements with crops moving into pasture and pasture into forest. Finally, agriculture and forestry are likely to be the economic sectors whose productivity is most sharply affected by climate change. In light of these challenges facing the global farm and food system, this paper will review the main sources of supply and demand for the world's cropland, and then provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of these forces on global land use over the coming century. The model incorporates forward looking behavior and examines competition between land used for ecosystem services, forestry, food and fuel. Explicit account is taken of emissions associated with both the intensive and extensive margins of agricultural expansion, as well as carbon sequestration and energy combustion. Key findings include: (a) energy prices and environmental policies will be increasingly important drivers of land use

  5. From grass to grape - land use change and soil structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eden, Marie; Völkel, Jörg

    2015-04-01

    In 1997 a ~0.5 ha vineyard was established on land formerly used as pasture; located in Namibia between the Naukluft and Tsaris mountains, some 50 to 60 km east of the Namib Sand Sea. Fossil water from springs along a geological fault provide the basis for this endeavour. In September 2013 the cultivated area has been enlarged by another 3 ha. In August 2014 soil samples were taken from the differently-aged vineyards and two adjacent spots outside the cropped areas. Additionally soil samples were taken from a neighbouring farm, which is irregularly used as pasture. The two locations are approximately 6.5 km apart. Undisturbed cores were extracted along with bulk soil samples to determine a suite of physical and chemical parameters. These parameters include texture, bulk density, water retention, air permeability, soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N), pH, electrical conductivity, and cation exchange capacity. The soil of the older vineyard showed the highest values of SOC (%) compared to both, the younger vineyard and pasture soils. Also N (%) levels were higher in the old vineyard soil. These differences are ascribed to the effects of land use change. Cultivating wine for 17 years and the associated farming practices influenced the soil properties. The young vineyard in comparison has not (yet) exerted a similar impact onto the soil as the land use change took place less than a year prior to sampling. The young vineyard reflects to some extent the initial conditions of the old vineyard, this can be used to predict the future impact of farming for this soil. Pasture is the predominant type of land use in this area. In order to compare one type of land use with another, the pasture soils from the neighbouring farm can be used. Contents of SOC and N are within a similar range for soils from the young vineyard and the pasture, which indicates that the recent land use change has not yet manifested itself in these parameters. However the old vineyard differs from the

  6. Modeling Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Claire, J. A.; Goetz, S. J.; Bockstael, N.

    2003-12-01

    Low density, decentralized residential and commercial development is increasingly the dominant pattern of exurban land use in many developed countries, particularly the United States. The term "sprawl" is now commonly used to describe this form of development, the environmental and quality-of-life impacts of which are becoming central to debates over land use in urban and suburban areas. Continued poor health of the Chesapeake Bay, located in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States, is due in part to disruptions in the hydrological system caused by urban and suburban development throughout the 167,000 square kilometer watershed. We present results of a spatial predictive model of land use change based on cellular automata (SLEUTH), which was calibrated using high resolution (30m cell size) maps of the built environment derived from Landsat ETM+ imagery for the period 1986-2000. The model was applied to a 23,740 square kilometer area centered on Washington DC - Baltimore MD, and predictions were made out to 2030 assuming three different policy scenarios (current trends, managed growth, and "sustainable"). Accuracy of the model was assessed at three scales (pixel, watershed and county) and overall strengths and weaknesses of the model are presented, particularly in comparison to other econometric modeling approaches.

  7. Assessing land-use change in Ireland using the Land-Parcel Identification System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zimmermann, Jesko; O'Brien, Phillip; Green, Stuart; Gonzales Del Campo, Ainhoa; Jones, Michael; Stout, Jane

    2014-05-01

    Carbon dynamics linked to Land-Use and Land-Use Change (LULUC) are considered a major factor in the global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) budget. The major sources of carbon to the atmosphere are the loss of above and below ground biomass as well as the loss of soil organic carbon. Estimates have shown that in the decade between 1990 and 2000 emissions related to LULUC and forestry have been between 0.5 and 2.7 Gt C yr-1. The major sources are conversion from forestry to agriculture and grasslands to cropland; conversely land-use change from cropland to grassland can facilitate soil carbon sequestration. While the effects of different types of land-use change on the GHG budget have been well studied, assessing land-use change at a national level is subject to uncertainty. In Ireland LULUC are currently modelled using national statistical data on total land-uses as well as socio-economic data. This may lead to inaccuracies as it neither provides information on direct land-use change trajectories nor spatially explicit information such as soil properties. The aim of this study is to assess the suitability of the land-parcel identification system (LPIS) to assess overall inter-annual land-use change as well as the immediate trajectory of change reported, and to provide tools for this purpose. For the available LPIS datasets (2000 to 2012) a number of issues have been identified. (1) Duplication of parcels led to a major overestimation of the agricultural area. On average 20917.7 ±7157.6 parcels showed one or multiple duplicates, leading to an overestimation of the agricultural area by 58194.2 ±11578.4km2, (2) no continuous identification of parcels through time complicates tracking land-use change, and (3) parcel outline changes over time without indication if the changes represent real-world changes or corrections of the LPIS database. Geoinformation Systems tools have been developed to address those issues, including a tool to remove duplicate parcels and a tool that

  8. Modeling Soil Organic Carbon for Agricultural Land Use Under Various Management Practices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotamarthi, V. R.; Drewniak, B.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Jacob, R. L.

    2009-12-01

    Bioenergy is generating tremendous interest as an alternative energy source that is both environmentally friendly and economically competitive. The amount of land designated for agriculture is expected to expand, including changes in the current distribution of crops, as demand for biofuels increases as a carbon neutral alternative fuel source. However, the influence of agriculture on the carbon cycle is complex, and varies depending on land use change and management practices. The purpose of this research is to integrate agriculture in the carbon-nitrogen based Community Land Model (CLM) to evaluate the above and below ground carbon storage for corn, soybean, and wheat crop lands. The new model, CLM-Crop simulates carbon allocation during four growth stages, a soybean nitrogen fixation scheme, fertilizer, and harvest practices. We present results from this model simulation, which includes the impact of a new dynamic roots module to simulate the changing root structure and depth with growing season based on the availability of water and nitrogen in the root zone and a retranslocation scheme to simulate redistribution of nitrogen from leaves, roots, and stems to grain during organ development for crop yields, leaf area index (LAI), carbon allocation, and changes in soil carbon budgets under various practices such as fertilizer and residue management. Simulated crop yields for corn, soybean and wheat are in general agreement with measurements. Initial model results indicate a loss of soil organic carbon over cultivated lands after removal of natural vegetation which continues in the following years. Soil carbon in crop lands is a strong function of the residue management and has the potential to impact crop yields significantly.

  9. Projecting Future Land Use Changes in West Africa Driven by Climate and Socioeconomic Factors: Uncertainties and Implications for Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

    2015-12-01

    Land use changes constitute an important regional climate change forcing in West Africa, a region of strong land-atmosphere coupling. At the same time, climate change can be an important driver for land use, although its importance relative to the impact of socio-economic factors may vary significant from region to region. This study compares the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa and examines various sources of uncertainty using a land use projection model (LandPro) that accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. Future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate model, and future changes of food demand is projected using a model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. The impact of human decision-making on land use was explicitly considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios to examine the range of uncertainties in projecting future land use. Without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease of crop yield together with increase of food demand are found to cause a significant increase in agricultural land use at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century, and the resulting land use land cover changes are found to feed back to the regional climate in a way that exacerbates the negative impact of climate on crop yield. Analysis of results from multiple decision-making scenarios suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed decision making to minimize land use could be very effective in many parts of the region.

  10. Modeling Tropical Land Use Change and Assessing Policies to Reduce Carbon Dioxide Release from Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pontius, Robert Gilmore, Jr.

    Humans may be causing the climate to change in ways that could threaten the welfare of future generations. The alteration by humans of the earth's remaining tropical forests is a component of the atmospheric flux of carbon dioxide, the most important greenhouse gas. It is especially important to investigate this flux because our understanding of it is highly uncertain, and it is a component of the global carbon cycle that humans can regulate. This dissertation supplies scientific tools and socioeconomic insights that policy makers may use to help to decide how much, if at all, to reduce the anthropogenic release of carbon dioxide from tropical landscapes. Chapter 1 presents a new Geographic Information System (GIS) model called GEOMOD2, which is a computer program written in FORTRAN. GEOMOD2 simulates land use change forward and backward in time using a digital map of land use, and produces a map of simulated carbon dioxide flux due to land use change. GEOMOD2 selects land for conversion according to patterns of previous land use and rates of land use change. Chapter 1 applies GEOMOD2 to tropical Africa, but the model could be used in other parts of the world and for a wider variety of applications. Chapter 2 uses the kappa parameter and an extraordinarily complete data set for Costa Rica to examine the accuracy with which GEOMOD2 predicts land use patterns. GEOMOD2 simulates the pattern of land use in Costa Rica over a duration of more than four decades with a success rate between 74% and 84% (kappa between 0.32 and 0.44). Chapter 3 uses an ecological economics approach to assess policies to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide being released from African agriculture. It concludes that the application of fertilizer to existing African fields would supply additional needed food to Africans at minimum carbon dioxide release, compared with other methods such as food importation, expanded shifting cultivation, or newly created permanent cultivation.

  11. New Jersey Land-Use Planning Techniques and Legislation. Agricultural Experiment Station Bulletin AE-338.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schneider, Lee D.

    In response to recent urban to rural migration trends and the development of rather piecemeal land use policies and practices by local, state, and Federal decision makers, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has established a regional project (NE-78) and this report reflects the first of three major project objectives (to describe and appraise…

  12. LUMINATE: Linking agricultural land use, local water quality and Gulf of Mexico hypoxia

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In this paper, we discuss the importance of developing integrated assessment models to support the design and implementation of policies to address water quality problems associated with agricultural pollution. We describe a new modelling system, LUMINATE, which links land use decisions made at the...

  13. Implications of constant land unit boundaries for land use projection in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Vittorio, A. V.

    2013-12-01

    Understanding the impacts of changing climate on human systems and decision making is complicated by differences in spatial scales among economic and biophysical models. Earth System Models (ESMs) operate on gridded representations of the globe while Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) generally operate on coarser, geographically delineated land units. This study is a first step toward addressing the uncertainties associated with this mismatch in spatial scale by comparing the effects of different spatial initial conditions for the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) on land use projections. Three initial conditions--agricultural production, harvested area, and land rent--have different global distributions when calculated for two different sets of land units: one based on current climate (151 land units) and one based on year 2100 climate (184 land units). This results in different land use trajectories through 2100, mainly due to changes in within-land unit climate heterogeneity over time. The current climate land units become more heterogeneous and the future climate land units become less heterogeneous as time progresses. Ongoing work in a coupled model framework examines how these two land use trajectories differentially affect climate and vegetation productivity estimates in the Community ESM (CESM) and the associated feedbacks to GCAM energy and land use projections. As different land use trajectories may generate significant differences in global carbon cycling and climate, the presented results have broader implications for understanding policy scenarios and potential impacts and also for evaluating and inter-comparing IAMs and ESMs.

  14. Estimates of Geographically Explicit Future CO2 Emissions From Land Cover/ Land Use Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richardson, T.; Yang, X.; Jain, A.; O'Neill, B.

    2007-12-01

    Land cover and land use change activities, such as deforestation, afforestation, and agriculture management, are important sources of not only CO2, but also non-CO2 GHGs and aerosols. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the potential contribution of future GHGs and reactive GHGs emissions via changes in regional land use-related activities at a 0.5 degree by 0.5 degree resolution. Regional land use is downscaled to the grid cell level based on socioeconomic, biophysical, and biogeochemical factors. Socio-economic factors include population density at the grid zone level. Land sustainability and attainable crop yields, as well as terrain conditions, are biophysical and biogeochemical factors that were also determined at each grid zone level. The productivity of land was determined by the length of growing period (LGP) using the biophysical and biochemical cycles of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM). Agro-ecological and economic indexes were constructed using historical and current-day cropping practices at the grid zone levels. In the future, the distribution of LGPs may be altered due to changes in carbon, nutrients, and climate. This paper uses two IPCC SRES (A2 and B1) emissions and land use scenarios during the time period 2000-2050 to evaluate the relative importance of land use emissions to future net terrestrial CO2 uptakes.

  15. U.S. Biofuel Policies and Domestic Shifts in Agricultural Land Use and Water Balances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teter, J.; Yeh, S.; Mishra, G. S.

    2014-12-01

    Policies promoting domestic biofuels production could lead to significant changes in cropping patterns. Types of direct and indirect land use change include: switching among crops (displacement), expanding cropped area (extensification), and altering water/soil management practices (e.g. irrigation, tillage) (intensification). Most studies of biofuels water use impacts calculate the water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/total evapotranspired water per unit energy of biofuels. But estimates based on this approach are sensitive to assumptions (e.g. co-product allocation, system boundaries), and do not convey policy-relevant information, as highlighted by the issue of land use change. We address these shortcomings by adopting a scenario-based approach that combines economic modeling with crop-water modeling of major crops and biofuel feedstocks. This allows us to holistically compare differences in water balances across policy scenarios in an integrated economic/agricultural system. We compare high spatial resolution water balance estimates under three hypothetical policy scenarios: 1) a counterfactual no-policy scenario, 2) modified Renewable Fuels Standard mandates (M-RFS2), & 3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard plus a modified RFS2 scenario (LCFS+RFS2). Differences between scenarios in crop water balances (i.e. transpiration, evaporation, runoff, groundwater infiltration, & irrigation) are regional and are a function of changes in land use patterns (i.e. displacement, intensification, & extensification), plus variation in crop water-use characteristics. Cropped land area increases 6.2% and 1.6% under M-RFS2 and LCFS+RFS2 scenarios, respectively, by 2030. Both policy scenarios lead to reductions in net irrigation volumes nationally compared to the no-policy scenario, though more irrigation occurs in regions of the Midwest and West. The LCFS+RFS2 reduces net irrigation water use by 3.5 times more than M-RFS2. However, both policies drive

  16. Conversion of prime agricultural land to urban land uses in Kansas City

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shaklee, R. V.

    1976-01-01

    In an expanding urban environment, agriculture and urban land uses are the two primary competitors for regional land resources. As a result of an increasing awareness of the effects which urban expansion has upon the regional environment, the conversion of prime agricultural land to urban land uses has become a point of concern to urban planners. A study was undertaken for the Kansas City Metropolitan Region, to determine the rate at which prime agricultural land has been converted to urban land uses over a five year period from 1969 to 1974. Using NASA high altitude color infrared imagery acquired over the city in October, 1969 and in May, 1974 to monitor the extent and location of urban expansion in the interim period, it was revealed that 42% of that expansion had occurred upon land classified as having prime agricultural potential. This involved a total of 10,727 acres of prime agricultural land and indicated a 7% increase over the 1969 which showed that 35% of the urban area had been developed on prime agricultural land.

  17. Decree No. 922 on land use and exercise of agricultural activities, 19 May 1989.

    PubMed

    1989-01-01

    The Bulgarian Decree 922, May 19, 1989, regulates land use and the exercise of agricultural activities. It stipulates in general that agricultural activities and land use will be based on the principles of company organization, ensuring the unity and indivisibility of socialist property and the variety of forms of land use and management, using collective farms and companies. Citizens may engage in agricultural activities without having a registered company; users of farmland must protect the environment; observe veterinary, plant protection, and sanitary hygiene regulations; and protect and improve soil fertility. Farms and other companies will carry out their activities under equal conditions, may sell their commodities may set up an association for the protection of their economic and social interests, and may establish agricultural stock exchanges and other cooperatives in accordance with stipulated procedures. Individual farms include an individual farmer or several farmers. Farmers may rent or purchase agricultural equipment without restriction as to model, capacity, or other features. Limitations apply on the number of workers employed on a nonseasonal basis. Farmers may form associations for specified purposes. Taxation is based on the general income tax law. Piece rate is a form of organization and payment of labor in agriculture; written agreements are required regarding wages, quality, quantity, deadlines, and supplies furnished. Lease contracts must be in writing, be registered by the municipal people's council at the location of the project, and contain specified information. PMID:12344303

  18. Historical land use change and associated carbon emissions in Brazil from 1940 to 1995

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leite, Christiane Cavalcante; Costa, Marcos Heil; Soares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira; de Barros Viana Hissa, Letícia

    2012-06-01

    The evaluation of impacts of land use change is in general limited by the knowledge of past land use conditions. Most publications on the field present only a vague description of the earlier patterns of land use, which is usually insufficient for more comprehensive studies. Here we present the first spatially explicit reconstruction of historical land use patterns in Brazil, including both croplands and pasturelands, for the period between 1940 and 1995. This reconstruction was obtained by merging satellite imagery with census data, and provides a 5' × 5' yearly data set of land use for three different categories (cropland, natural pastureland and planted pastureland) for Brazil. The results show that important land use changes occurred in Brazil. Natural pasture dominated in the 1950s and 1960s, but since the beginning of 1970s it has been gradually replaced by planted pasture, especially in southeast and center west of Brazil. The croplands began its expansion in the 1960s reaching extensive areas in almost all states in 1980. Carbon emissions from historical land use changes were calculated by superimposing a composite biomass map on grids of a weighted average of the fractions of the vegetation types and the replacement land uses. Net emissions from land use changes between 1940 and 1995 totaled 17.2 ± 9.0 Pg-C (90% confidence range), averaging 0.31 ± 0.16 Pg-C yr-1, but reaching up to 0.47 ± 0.25 Pg-C yr-1 during the 1960s and through 1986-1995. Despite international concerns about Amazon deforestation emissions, 72% of Brazil's carbon emissions during the period actually came from deforestation in the Atlantic Forest and Cerrado biomes. Brazil's carbon emissions from land use change are about 11 times larger than its emissions from fossil fuel burning, although only about 18.1% of the native biomass has been lost due to agricultural expansion, which is similar to the global mean (17.7%).

  19. The Impact of Land Use Change on Primary Stream Organic and Inorganic Carbon Export

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelsey, S. A.; Bauer, J. E.; Grottoli, A. G.; Huey Sanders, T. M.; Matsui, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Terrestrial land use may impact both the amounts of and characteristics of organic and inorganic carbon (OC and IC, respectively) entering aquatic ecosystems. Better understanding of how different land uses alter carbon characteristics and export fluxes from watersheds may lead to better management practices for retaining OC in terrestrial habitats and therefore mitigate CO2 emissions from freshwater ecosystems where terrestrial OC may be more rapidly respired. We examined the fluxes and δ13C and ∆14C signatures of dissolved IC (DIC), dissolved OC (DOC), and particulate OC (POC) exported from 6 watersheds with differing land use at the North Appalachian Experimental Watershed (NAEW) in Coshocton county in northeastern Ohio to assess whether differences in land use are related to variability in the export fluxes and isotopic characteristics of OC and IC pools. We used a Bayesian mixing model (MixSIR) to determine how the relative contributions of potential carbon sources to DIC, DOC, and POC change as a function of watershed land use. Mixing model results from each season were used to approximate relative annual contributions of potential sources to DIC, DOC, and POC export fluxes from each watershed. We found that agricultural land uses (i.e., corn, under both conventional till and no-till management) experienced the greatest degree of disturbance and had the greatest carbon export fluxes. However, the relative extent to which soil OC contributed to export fluxes compared to corn biomass varied as a function of tillage practices. In addition, nonparametric multidimensional scaling (NMDS), based on the δ13C and ∆14C data and mixing model results for DIC, DOC and POC export fluxes, separated non-corn watersheds into 2 further classes of disturbance: moderate disturbance (pasture and mixed land use) and low disturbance (forest). These findings suggest that land use has a measurable impact on the concentration and characteristics of watershed C export fluxes.

  20. An inexact risk management model for agricultural land-use planning under water shortage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Wei; Feng, Changchun; Dai, Chao; Li, Yongping; Li, Chunhui; Liu, Ming

    2016-09-01

    Water resources availability has a significant impact on agricultural land-use planning, especially in a water shortage area such as North China. The random nature of available water resources and other uncertainties in an agricultural system present risk for land-use planning and may lead to undesirable decisions or potential economic loss. In this study, an inexact risk management model (IRM) was developed for supporting agricultural land-use planning and risk analysis under water shortage. The IRM model was formulated through incorporating a conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) constraint into an inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) framework, and could be used to control uncertainties expressed as not only probability distributions but also as discrete intervals. The measure of risk about the second-stage penalty cost was incorporated into the model so that the trade-off between system benefit and extreme expected loss could be analyzed. The developed model was applied to a case study in the Zhangweinan River Basin, a typical agricultural region facing serious water shortage in North China. Solutions of the IRM model showed that the obtained first-stage land-use target values could be used to reflect decision-makers' opinions on the long-term development plan. The confidence level α and maximum acceptable risk loss β could be used to reflect decisionmakers' preference towards system benefit and risk control. The results indicated that the IRM model was useful for reflecting the decision-makers' attitudes toward risk aversion and could help seek cost-effective agricultural land-use planning strategies under complex uncertainties.

  1. An inexact risk management model for agricultural land-use planning under water shortage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Wei; Feng, Changchun; Dai, Chao; Li, Yongping; Li, Chunhui; Liu, Ming

    2015-10-01

    Water resources availability has a significant impact on agricultural land-use planning, especially in a water shortage area such as North China. The random nature of available water resources and other uncertainties in an agricultural system present risk for land-use planning and may lead to undesirable decisions or potential economic loss. In this study, an inexact risk management model (IRM) was developed for supporting agricultural land-use planning and risk analysis under water shortage. The IRM model was formulated through incorporating a conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) constraint into an inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) framework, and could be used to control uncertainties expressed as not only probability distributions but also as discrete intervals. The measure of risk about the second-stage penalty cost was incorporated into the model so that the trade-off between system benefit and extreme expected loss could be analyzed. The developed model was applied to a case study in the Zhangweinan River Basin, a typical agricultural region facing serious water shortage in North China. Solutions of the IRM model showed that the obtained first-stage land-use target values could be used to reflect decision-makers' opinions on the long-term development plan. The confidence level α and maximum acceptable risk loss β could be used to reflect decisionmakers' preference towards system benefit and risk control. The results indicated that the IRM model was useful for reflecting the decision-makers' attitudes toward risk aversion and could help seek cost-effective agricultural land-use planning strategies under complex uncertainties.

  2. A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

    PubMed Central

    Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

    2015-01-01

    A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392

  3. Flood projections within the Niger River Basin under future land use and climate change.

    PubMed

    Aich, Valentin; Liersch, Stefan; Vetter, Tobias; Fournet, Samuel; Andersson, Jafet C M; Calmanti, Sandro; van Weert, Frank H A; Hattermann, Fred F; Paton, Eva N

    2016-08-15

    This study assesses future flood risk in the Niger River Basin (NRB), for the first time considering the simultaneous effects of both projected climate change and land use changes. For this purpose, an ecohydrological process-based model (SWIM) was set up and validated for past climate and land use dynamics of the entire NRB. Model runs for future flood risks were conducted with an ensemble of 18 climate models, 13 of them dynamically downscaled from the CORDEX Africa project and five statistically downscaled Earth System Models. Two climate and two land use change scenarios were used to cover a broad range of potential developments in the region. Two flood indicators (annual 90th percentile and the 20-year return flood) were used to assess the future flood risk for the Upper, Middle and Lower Niger as well as the Benue. The modeling results generally show increases of flood magnitudes when comparing a scenario period in the near future (2021-2050) with a base period (1976-2005). Land use effects are more uncertain, but trends and relative changes for the different catchments of the NRB seem robust. The dry areas of the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of the basin show a particularly high sensitivity to climatic and land use changes, with an alarming increase of flood magnitudes in parts. A scenario with continuing transformation of natural vegetation into agricultural land and urbanization intensifies the flood risk in all parts of the NRB, while a "regreening" scenario can reduce flood magnitudes to some extent. Yet, land use change effects were smaller when compared to the effects of climate change. In the face of an already existing adaptation deficit to catastrophic flooding in the region, the authors argue for a mix of adaptation and mitigation efforts in order to reduce the flood risk in the NRB. PMID:27110979

  4. A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies.

    PubMed

    Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

    2015-01-01

    A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001-2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392

  5. Increased influence of nitrogen limitation on CO2 emissions from future land use and land-use change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jain, A. K.; Meiyappan, P.; House, J.

    2015-12-01

    In the latest projections of future greenhouse gas emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), few Earth System Models included the effect of nitrogen limitation, a key process limiting forest regrowth. We estimate the impacts of nitrogen limitation on the CO2 emissions from land use and land-use change (LULUC), including wood harvest, for the period 1900-2100. We use a land-surface model that includes a fully coupled carbon and nitrogen cycle, and accounts for forest regrowth processes following agricultural abandonment and wood harvest. Future projections are based on the four Representation Concentration Pathways used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and we account for uncertainty in future climate for each scenario based on ensembles of climate model outputs. Results show that excluding nitrogen limitation will underestimate global LULUC emissions by 34-52 PgC (20-30%) during the 20th century (range across three different historical LULUC reconstructions) and by 128-187 PgC (90-150%) during the 21st century (range across the four IPCC scenarios). The full range for estimated LULUC emissions during the 21st century including climate model uncertainty is 91 to 227 PgC (with nitrogen limitation included). The underestimation increases with time because: (1) Projected annual wood harvest rates from forests summed over the 21st century are 380-1080% higher compared to those of the 20th century, resulting in more regrowing secondary forests, (2) Nitrogen limitation reduces the CO2 fertilization effect on net primary production of regrowing secondary forests following wood harvest and agricultural abandonment, and (3) Nitrogen limitation effect is aggravated by the gradual loss of soil nitrogen from LULUC disturbance. Our study implies that: (1) Nitrogen limitation of CO2 uptake is substantial and sensitive to nitrogen inputs, (2) If LULUC emissions are larger than previously estimated in studies without nitrogen limitation, then meeting

  6. Increased influence of nitrogen limitation on CO2 emissions from future land use and land use change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meiyappan, Prasanth; Jain, Atul K.; House, Joanna I.

    2015-09-01

    In the latest projections of future greenhouse gas emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), few Earth System Models included the effect of nitrogen limitation, a key process limiting forest regrowth. Few included forest management (wood harvest). We estimate the impacts of nitrogen limitation on the CO2 emissions from land use and land use change (LULUC), including wood harvest, for the period 1900-2100. We use a land surface model that includes a fully coupled carbon and nitrogen cycle and accounts for forest regrowth processes following agricultural abandonment and wood harvest. Future projections are based on the four Representation Concentration Pathways used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and we account for uncertainty in future climate for each scenario based on ensembles of climate model outputs. Results show that excluding nitrogen limitation will underestimate global LULUC emissions by 34-52 PgC (20-30%) during the 20th century (range across three different historical LULUC reconstructions) and by 128-187 PgC (90-150%) during the 21st century (range across the four IPCC scenarios). The full range for estimated LULUC emissions during the 21st century including climate model uncertainty is 91 to 227 PgC (with nitrogen limitation included). The underestimation increases with time because (1) projected annual wood harvest rates from forests summed over the 21st century are 380-1080% higher compared to those of the 20th century, resulting in more regrowing secondary forests; (2) nitrogen limitation reduces the CO2 fertilization effect on net primary production of regrowing secondary forests following wood harvest and agricultural abandonment; and (3) nitrogen limitation effect is aggravated by the gradual loss of soil nitrogen from LULUC disturbance. Our study implies that (1) nitrogen limitation of CO2 uptake is substantial and sensitive to nitrogen inputs; (2) if LULUC emissions are larger than previously estimated in studies

  7. The impact of land use changes on water pathways, soil formation and soil functioning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinet, Jérémy; Ameijeiras-Mariño, Yolanda; Minella, Jean P. G.; Vanderborght, Jan; Govers, Gerard

    2015-04-01

    The major role played by the hydrology in controlling biogeochemical fluxes at various scales has been highlighted in several studies (e.g. Van Gaelen et al., 2014; Jiang et al., 2010). Numerous studies have highlighted different factors controlling water fluxes at the hillslope or catchment scale, such as physico-chemical soil characteristics and structure (Uhlenbrook et al., 2008) and soil thickness (Buttle et al., 2004). Given the potential important impact of land use changes on water fluxes (Özturk et al., 2013), it is surprising that relatively few studies investigated the impacts of those changes. This does not only imply that the consequences of land use change on hydrological and biogeochemical pathways and fluxes are still difficult to predict but also that we lack critical information on how such changes may feed back to soil processes. Therefore, it remains impossible to assess to what extent land use conversions may affect biogeochemical processes in soils and/or soil production through weathering. The overall objective of this research project is therefore to investigate how land use change affects water and biogeochemical fluxes and how these changes may, on their turn, affect soil and landscape development on the long term. In order to achieve this objective it is necessary to not only assess the effect of land use on fluxes leaving the catchment, but also on how land use change affects water pathways and water chemistry within the catchment. This requires the combined use of a wide range of classical and novel techniques. Two catchments with contrasting land use (agriculture vs. natural forest) were selected in a subtropical region in the south of Brazil. Soil sampling, stream discharge monitoring and sampling, pore water sampling, groundwater monitoring and sampling, and geophysical techniques (Time Domain Reflectometry and Electro Magnetic Induction) are combined to yield information on water and solute movement at the plot, slope and catchment

  8. Sustainable Water and Agricultural Land Use in the Guanting Watershed under Limited Water Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wechsung, F.; Möhring, J.; Otto, I. M.; Wang, X.; Guanting Project Team

    2012-04-01

    The Yongding River System is an important water source for the northeastern Chinese provinces Shanxi, Hebei, Beijing, and Tianjin. The Guanting Reservoir within this river system is one of the major water sources for Beijing, which is about 70 km away. Original planning assumed a discharge of 44 m3/s for the reservoir, but the current mean discharge rate is only about 5 m3/s; there is often hardly any discharge at all. Water scarcity is a major threat for the socio-economic development of the area. The situation is additionally aggravated by climate change impacts. Typical upstream-downstream conflicts with respect to water quantity and quality requests are mixed up with conflicts between different sectors, mainly mining, industry, and agriculture. These conflicts can be observed on different administrative levels, for example between the provinces, down to households. The German-Chinese research project "Sustainable water and agricultural land use in the Guanting Watershed under limited water resources" investigates problems and solutions related to water scarcity in the Guanting Catchment. The aim of the project is to create a vulnerability study in order to assess options for (and finally achieve) sustainable water and land use management in the Guanting region. This includes a comprehensive characterization of the current state by gap analysis and identification of pressures and impacts. The presentation gives an overview of recent project results regarding regionalization of global change scenarios and specification for water supply, evaluation of surface water quantity balances (supply-demand), evaluation of the surface water quality balances (emissions-impact thresholds), and exploration of integrative measurement planning. The first results show that climate in the area is becoming warmer and drier which leads to even more dramatically shrinking water resources. Water supply is expected to be reduced between one and two thirds. Water demand might be

  9. History matters: relating land-use change to butterfly species occurrence.

    PubMed

    Lütolf, Michael; Guisan, Antoine; Kienast, Felix

    2009-03-01

    Western European landscapes have drastically changed since the 1950s, with agricultural intensifications and the spread of urban settlements considered the most important drivers of this land-use/land-cover change. Losses of habitat for fauna and flora have been a direct consequence of this development. In the present study, we relate butterfly occurrence to land-use/land-cover changes over five decades between 1951 and 2000. The study area covers the entire Swiss territory. The 10 explanatory variables originate from agricultural statistics and censuses. Both state as well as rate was used as explanatory variables. Species distribution data were obtained from natural history collections. We selected eight butterfly species: four species occur on wetlands and four occur on dry grasslands. We used cluster analysis to track land-use/land-cover changes and to group communes based on similar trajectories of change. Generalized linear models were applied to identify factors that were significantly correlated with the persistence or disappearance of butterfly species. Results showed that decreasing agricultural areas and densities of farms with more than 10 ha of cultivated land are significantly related with wetland species decline, and increasing densities of livestock seem to have favored disappearance of dry grassland species. Moreover, we show that species declines are not only dependent on land-use/land-cover states but also on the rates of change; that is, the higher the transformation rate from small to large farms, the higher the loss of dry grassland species. We suggest that more attention should be paid to the rates of landscape change as feasible drivers of species change and derive some management suggestions. PMID:19184187

  10. Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marlier, M. E.; DeFries, R. S.; Pennington, D.; Ordway, E.; Nelson, E.; Mickley, L.; Koplitz, S.

    2013-12-01

    Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change in past decades as forests and peatlands are cleared for agricultural development, including oil palm and timber plantations1. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and the subsequent emissions can have important public health impacts by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations2. This regional haze was dramatically seen in Singapore during June 2013 due to the transport of emissions from fires in Sumatra. Our study is part of a larger project that will quantify the public health impact of various land use development scenarios for Sumatra over the coming decades. Here, we describe how we translate economic projections of land use change into future fire emissions inventories for GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport simulations. We relate past GFED3 fire emissions3 to detailed 1-km land use change data and MODIS fire radiative power observations, and apply these relationships to future estimates of land use change. The goal of this interdisciplinary project is to use modeling results to interact with policy makers and influence development strategies in ways that protect public health. 1Miettinen et al. 2011. Deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010. Glob. Change Biol.,17 (7), 2261-2270. 2Marlier et al. 2013. El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia. Nature Clim. Change, 3, 131-136. 3van der Werf et al. 2010. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009). Atmos. Chem. Physics, 10 (23), 11707-11735.

  11. Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Land-Use Changes, and Regional Carbon Dynamics in United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mu, J. E.; Sleeter, B. M.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    The fact that climate change is likely to accelerate throughout this century means that climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture will need to adapt increasingly to climate change. This fact also means that understanding the potential for agricultural adaptation, and how it could come about, is important for ongoing technology investments in the public and private sectors, for infrastructure investments, and for the various policies that address agriculture directly or indirectly. This paper is an interdisciplinary study by collaborating with climate scientist, agronomists, economists, and ecologists. We first use statistical models to estimate impacts of climate change on major crop yields (wheat, corn, soybeans, sorghum, and cotton) and predict changes in crop yields under future climate condition using downscaled climate projections from CMIP5. Then, we feed the predicted yield changes to a partial equilibrium economic model (FASOM-GHG) to evaluate economic and environmental outcomes including changes in land uses (i.e., cropland, pastureland, forest land, urban land and land for conservation) in United States. Finally, we use outputs from FASOM-GHG as inputs for the ST-SIM ecological model to simulate future carbon dynamics through changes in land use under future climate conditions and discuss the rate of adaptation through land-use changes. Findings in this paper have several merits compared to previous findings in the literature. First, we add economic components to the carbon calculation. It is important to include socio-economic conditions when calculating carbon emission and/or carbon sequestration because human activities are the major contribution to atmosphere GHG emissions. Second, we use the most recent downscaled climate projections from CMIP5 to capture uncertainties from climate model projections. Instead of using all GCMs, we select five GCMs to represent the ensemble. Third, we use a bottom-up approach because we start from micro-level data

  12. A conceptual framework of agricultural land use planning with BMP for integrated watershed management.

    PubMed

    Qi, Honghai; Altinakar, Mustafa S

    2011-01-01

    Land use planning is an important element of the integrated watershed management approach. It not only influences the environmental processes such as soil and stream bed erosion, sediment and nutrient concentrations in streams, quality of surface and ground waters in a watershed, but also affects social and economic development in that region. Although its importance in achieving sustainable development has long been recognized, a land use planning methodology based on a systems approach involving realistic computational modeling and meta-heuristic optimization is still lacking in the current practice of integrated watershed management. The present study proposes a new approach which attempts to combine computational modeling of upland watershed processes, fluvial processes and modern heuristic optimization techniques to address the water-land use interrelationship in its full complexity. The best land use allocation is decided by a multi-objective function that minimizes sediment yields and nutrient concentrations as well as the total operation/implementation cost, while the water quality and the production benefits from agricultural exploitation are maximized. The proposed optimization strategy considers also the preferences of land owners. The runoff model AnnAGNPS (developed by USDA), and the channel network model CCHE1D (developed by NCCHE), are linked together to simulate sediment/pollutant transport process at watershed scale based on any assigned land use combination. The greedy randomized adaptive Tabu search heuristic is used to flip the land use options for finding an optimum combination of land use allocations. The approach is demonstrated by applying it to a demonstrative case study involving USDA Goodwin Creek experimental watershed located in northern Mississippi. The results show the improvement of the tradeoff between benefits and costs for the watershed, after implementing the proposed optimal land use planning. PMID:20863609

  13. Radar monitoring of agricultural land use - Some problems and potentials at the local level.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Henderson, F. M.

    1971-01-01

    A study was made of some of the changing land use practices in a small area of the American Winter Wheat Belt as they might relate to remote sensing. In addition, interviews were conducted with farmers and local country agents in order to determine some of the needs regarding land use and farming practices as perceived by these people. A list of elements of land use is given which provides potential variables and parameters to be considered in interpreting radar imagery. The results of interviews provide a better concept of what potential remote sensing users at the primary level need and want.

  14. Carbon fluxes resulting from land-use changes in the Tamaulipan thornscrub of northeastern Mexico

    PubMed Central

    Návar-Chaidez, Jose de Jesus

    2008-01-01

    Information on carbon stock and flux resulting from land-use changes in subtropical, semi-arid ecosystems are important to understand global carbon flux, yet little data is available. In the Tamaulipan thornscrub forests of northeastern Mexico, biomass components of standing vegetation were estimated from 56 quadrats (200 m2 each). Regional land-use changes and present forest cover, as well as estimates of soil organic carbon from chronosequences, were used to predict carbon stocks and fluxes in this ecosystem. For the period of 1980–1996, the Tamaulipan thornscrub is presenting an annual deforestation rate of 2.27% indicating that approximately 600 km2 of this plant community are lost every year and that 60% of the original Mexican Tamaulipan thornscrub vegetation has been lost since the 1950's. On the other hand, intensive agriculture, including introduced grasslands increased (4,000 km2) from 32 to 42% of the total studied area, largely at the expense of the Tamaulipan thornscrub forests. Land-use changes from Tamaulipan thornscrub forest to agriculture contribute 2.2 Tg to current annual carbon emissions and standing biomass averages 0.24 ± 0.06 Tg, root biomass averages 0.17 ± 0.03 Tg, and soil organic carbon averages 1.80 ± 0.27 Tg. Land-use changes from 1950 to 2000 accounted for Carbon emissions of the order of 180.1 Tg. Projected land-use changes will likely contribute to an additional carbon flux of 98.0 Tg by the year 2100. Practices to conserve sequester, and transfer carbon stocks in semi-arid ecosystems are discussed as a means to reduce carbon flux from deforestation practices. PMID:18826617

  15. Wetlands: crop freezes and land-use change in Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marshall, C.H.; Pielke, R.A., Sr.; Steyaert, L.T.

    2003-01-01

    South Florida experienced a significant change in land usage during the twentieth century, including the conversion of natural wetlands into agricultural land for the cultivation of winter vegetable, sugar cane and citrus crops. This movement of agriculture from more northerly areas was intended partly to escape the risk of damaging winter freezes. Here we present evidence from a case study using a coupled atmosphere and land-surface computer-modelling system that suggests that the draining of wetlands may have inadvertently increased the frequency and severity of agriculturally damaging freezes in the south of Florida.  

  16. Impact of Southern Amazonian land use change on spatiotemporal climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilian, Markus; Böhner, Jürgen; Lunkeit, Frank; Lucarini, Valerio; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Göpel, Jan; Schüngel, Jan

    2015-04-01

    The Amazonia river basin is affected by deforestation and increasing land use changes due to an intensified agricultural and industrial land use. These anthropogenic influences may cause major impacts on the regional climate on various spatial and temporal scales. In order to investigate the local impacts on temperature and precipitation we use dynamical downscaling of ECHAM5 data employing the Weather and Research Forecasting Model (WRF) on a 60km and 30km scale. Since previous studies have used simplified assumptions for land use changes or used purely random variations of deforestation, we aim for a realistic representation on the considered spatial scales. We fill this gap with results of the LandSHIFT model provided by the Center for Environmental System Research which accounts for socio-economic and agricultural developments. In this study we focus on the region of Mato Grosso and Pará between 2001 and 2006. The transformation from tropical rain forest to agricultural areas changes the mean and the variability of temperature and precipitation.

  17. National land-cover data and national agricultural census estimates of agricultural land use in the northeastern United States

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The landscape of the northeastern United States is diverse and patchy, a complex mixture of forest, agriculture, and developed lands. Many urgent social and environmental issues require spatially-referenced information on land use, a need filled by the National Land-Cover Data (NLCD). The accuracy o...

  18. NASA Land Cover and Land Use Change (LCLUC): an interdisciplinary research program.

    PubMed

    Justice, Chris; Gutman, Garik; Vadrevu, Krishna Prasad

    2015-01-15

    Understanding Land Cover/Land Use Change (LCLUC) in diverse regions of the world and at varied spatial scales is one of the important challenges in global change research. In this article, we provide a brief overview of the NASA LCLUC program, its focus areas, and the importance of satellite remote sensing observations in LCLUC research including future directions. The LCLUC Program was designed to be a cross-cutting theme within NASA's Earth Science program. The program aims to develop and use remote sensing technologies to improve understanding of human interactions with the environment. Since 1997, the NASA LCLUC program has supported nearly 280 research projects on diverse topics such as forest loss and carbon, urban expansion, land abandonment, wetland loss, agricultural land use change and land use change in mountain systems. The NASA LCLUC program emphasizes studies where land-use changes are rapid or where there are significant regional or global LCLUC implications. Over a period of years, the LCLUC program has contributed to large regional science programs such as Land Biosphere-Atmosphere (LBA), the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), and the Monsoon Area Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS). The primary emphasis of the program will remain on using remote sensing datasets for LCLUC research. The program will continue to emphasize integration of physical and social sciences to address regional to global scale issues of LCLUC for the benefit of society. PMID:25500156

  19. Global change pressures on soils from land use and management.

    PubMed

    Smith, Pete; House, Joanna I; Bustamante, Mercedes; Sobocká, Jaroslava; Harper, Richard; Pan, Genxing; West, Paul C; Clark, Joanna M; Adhya, Tapan; Rumpel, Cornelia; Paustian, Keith; Kuikman, Peter; Cotrufo, M Francesca; Elliott, Jane A; McDowell, Richard; Griffiths, Robert I; Asakawa, Susumu; Bondeau, Alberte; Jain, Atul K; Meersmans, Jeroen; Pugh, Thomas A M

    2016-03-01

    Soils are subject to varying degrees of direct or indirect human disturbance, constituting a major global change driver. Factoring out natural from direct and indirect human influence is not always straightforward, but some human activities have clear impacts. These include land-use change, land management and land degradation (erosion, compaction, sealing and salinization). The intensity of land use also exerts a great impact on soils, and soils are also subject to indirect impacts arising from human activity, such as acid deposition (sulphur and nitrogen) and heavy metal pollution. In this critical review, we report the state-of-the-art understanding of these global change pressures on soils, identify knowledge gaps and research challenges and highlight actions and policies to minimize adverse environmental impacts arising from these global change drivers. Soils are central to considerations of what constitutes sustainable intensification. Therefore, ensuring that vulnerable and high environmental value soils are considered when protecting important habitats and ecosystems, will help to reduce the pressure on land from global change drivers. To ensure that soils are protected as part of wider environmental efforts, a global soil resilience programme should be considered, to monitor, recover or sustain soil fertility and function, and to enhance the ecosystem services provided by soils. Soils cannot, and should not, be considered in isolation of the ecosystems that they underpin and vice versa. The role of soils in supporting ecosystems and natural capital needs greater recognition. The lasting legacy of the International Year of Soils in 2015 should be to put soils at the centre of policy supporting environmental protection and sustainable development. PMID:26301476

  20. Agricultural policy effects on land cover and land use over 30 years in Tartous, Syria, as seen in Landsat imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ibrahim, Waad Youssef; Batzli, Sam; Menzel, W. Paul

    2014-01-01

    This study pursues a connection between agricultural policy and the changes in land use and land cover detected with remote sensing satellite data. One part of the study analyzes the Syrian agricultural policy, wherein, certain regional targets have been selected for annual citrus or greenhouse development along with tools of enforcement, support, and monitoring. The second part of the study investigates the utility of remote sensing (RS) and geographical information systems (GIS) to map land use land cover changes (LULC-Cs) in a time series of images from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) from 1987, 1998, 2006, and 2010 and Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+) from 1999 to 2002. Several multispectral band analyses have been performed to determine the most suitable band combinations for isolating greenhouses and citrus farms. Supervised classification with maximum likelihood classifier has been used to produce precise land use land cover map. This research demonstrates that spatial relationship between LULC-Cs and agricultural policies can be determined through a science-based GIS/RS application to a time series of satellite images taken at the same time of the implemented policy.

  1. Effects of Land Use Change on Tropical Hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Creel, J.; Ogden, F. L.

    2012-12-01

    The effects of land use change in the tropics is an area that is poorly understood. It is often hypothesized that deforestation leads to larger flood peaks, although questions remain regarding the generality of this concept and controlling factors. We test this hypothesis using rainfall-runoff data from five different basins in the Panama Canal Watershed collected during the flood of record, which occurred in December, 2010. During this "La Purissima" event, over 1000 mm of rain fell in two days of portions of the study area. One of the basins used in our comparison is the 414 sq. km Upper Rio Chagres, which consists of 98% old-growth forest land cover. The response of this watershed is compared against adjacent watersheds with varying degrees of deforestation. Runoff ratios and flashiness indices are calculated for each of the five basins. Additionally, flood peaks during the storm are compared. Correlations between these indicators of flood runoff and contemporaneous land use data are used to explore the effect of the level of deforestation on flood severity for this unusually extreme well monitored tropical rainfall event.

  2. Deriving a per-field land use and land cover map in an agricultural mosaic catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seo, B.; Bogner, C.; Poppenborg, P.; Martin, E.; Hoffmeister, M.; Jun, M.; Koellner, T.; Reineking, B.; Shope, C. L.; Tenhunen, J.

    2014-09-01

    Detailed data on land use and land cover constitute important information for Earth system models, environmental monitoring and ecosystem services research. Global land cover products are evolving rapidly; however, there is still a lack of information particularly for heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. We censused land use and land cover field by field in the agricultural mosaic catchment Haean in South Korea. We recorded the land cover types with additional information on agricultural practice. In this paper we introduce the data, their collection and the post-processing protocol. Furthermore, because it is important to quantitatively evaluate available land use and land cover products, we compared our data with the MODIS Land Cover Type product (MCD12Q1). During the studied period, a large portion of dry fields was converted to perennial crops. Compared to our data, the forested area was underrepresented and the agricultural area overrepresented in MCD12Q1. In addition, linear landscape elements such as waterbodies were missing in the MODIS product due to its coarse spatial resolution. The data presented here can be useful for earth science and ecosystem services research. The data are available at the public repository Pangaea (doi:110.1594/PANGAEA.823677).

  3. Denitrification potential of different land-use types in an agricultural watershed, lower Mississippi valley

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ullah, S.; Faulkner, S.P.

    2006-01-01

    Expansion of agricultural land and excessive nitrogen (N) fertilizer use in the Mississippi River watershed has resulted in a three-fold increase in the nitrate load of the river since the early 1950s. One way to reduce this nitrate load is to restore wetlands at suitable locations between croplands and receiving waters to remove run-off nitrate through denitrification. This research investigated denitrification potential (DP) of different land uses and its controlling factors in an agricultural watershed in the lower Mississippi valley (LMV) to help identify sites with high DP for reducing run-off nitrate. Soil samples collected from seven land-use types of an agricultural watershed during spring, summer, fall and winter were incubated in the laboratory for DP determination. Low-elevation clay soils in wetlands exhibited 6.3 and 2.5 times greater DP compared to high-elevation silt loam and low-elevation clay soils in croplands, respectively. DP of vegetated-ditches was 1.3 and 4.2 times that of un-vegetated ditches and cultivated soils, respectively. Soil carbon and nitrogen availability, bulk density, and soil moisture significantly affected DP. These factors were significantly influenced in turn by landscape position and land-use type of the watershed. It is evident from these results that low-elevation, fine-textured soils under natural wetlands are the best locations for mediating nitrate loss from agricultural watersheds in the LMV. Landscape position and land-use types can be used as indices for the assessment/modeling of denitrification potential and identification of sites for restoration for nitrate removal in agricultural watersheds. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Agricultural land use intensity and its determinants: A case study in Taibus Banner, Inner Mongolia, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, Haiguang; Li, Xiubin; Tan, Minghong; Zhang, Jiping; Zhang, Huiyuan

    2015-06-01

    Based on rural household survey data from Taibus Banner, in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, this study separately categorizes agricultural land use intensity into labor intensity, capital intensity, the intensity of labor-saving inputs, and the intensity of yield-increasing inputs, and then analyzes their determinants at the household level. The findings reveal that within the study area: (1) labor intensity is higher and capital intensity is lower than in the major grain-producing and economically developed areas of eastern and central China; (2) the most widely planted crops are those with the lowest labor intensity (oats) and capital intensity (benne); (3) there are marked differences in agricultural land use intensity among households; a major factor affecting land use decision-making is the reduced need for labor intensity for those households with high opportunity costs, such as those with income earned from non-farming activities which alleviates financial constraints and allows for increased capital intensity. As a result, these households invest more in labor-saving inputs; (4) households with a larger number of workers will allocate adequate time to manage their land and thus they will not necessarily invest more in labor-saving inputs. Those households with more land to manage tend to adopt an extensive cultivation strategy. Total income has a positive impact on capital intensity and a negative impact on labor intensity. Households that derive a higher proportion of their total income through farming are more reliant upon agriculture, which necessitates significant labor and yield-increasing inputs. Finally, the authors contend that policy makers should clearly recognize the impacts of non-farming employment on agricultural land use intensity. In order to ensure long-term food security and sustainable agricultural development in China, income streams from both farming and non-farming employment should be balanced.

  5. Landscape ecological security response to land use change in the tidal flat reclamation zone, China.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Runsen; Pu, Lijie; Li, Jianguo; Zhang, Jing; Xu, Yan

    2016-01-01

    As coastal development becomes a national strategy in Eastern China, land use and landscape patterns have been affected by reclamation projects. In this study, taking Rudong County, China as a typical area, we analyzed land use change and its landscape ecological security responses in the tidal flat reclamation zone. The results show that land use change in the tidal flat reclamation zone is characterized by the replacement of natural tidal flat with agricultural and construction land, which has also led to a big change in landscape patterns. We built a landscape ecological security evaluation system, which consists of landscape interference degree and landscape fragile degree, and then calculated the landscape ecological security change in the tidal flat reclamation zone from 1990 to 2008 to depict the life cycle in tidal flat reclamation. Landscape ecological security exhibited a W-shaped periodicity, including the juvenile stage, growth stage, and maturation stage. Life-cycle analysis demonstrates that 37 years is required for the land use system to transform from a natural ecosystem to an artificial ecosystem in the tidal flat reclamation zone. PMID:26627206

  6. Land use and land cover changes in Zêzere watershed (Portugal)--Water quality implications.

    PubMed

    Meneses, B M; Reis, R; Vale, M J; Saraiva, R

    2015-09-15

    To understand the relations between land use allocation and water quality preservation within a watershed is essential to assure sustainable development. The land use and land cover (LUC) within Zêzere River watershed registered relevant changes in the last decades. These land use and land cover changes (LUCCs) have impacts in water quality, mainly in surface water degradation caused by surface runoff from artificial and agricultural areas, forest fires and burnt areas, and caused by sewage discharges from agroindustry and urban sprawl. In this context, the impact of LUCCs in the quality of surface water of the Zêzere watershed is evaluated, considering the changes for different types of LUC and establishing their possible correlations to the most relevant water quality changes. The results indicate that the loss of coniferous forest and the increase of transitional woodland-shrub are related to increased water's pH; while the growth in artificial surfaces and pastures leads mainly to the increase of soluble salts and fecal coliform concentration. These particular findings within the Zêzere watershed, show the relevance of addressing water quality impact driven from land use and should therefore be taken into account within the planning process in order to prevent water stress, namely within watersheds integrating drinking water catchments. PMID:25981942

  7. Biofuel Induced Land Use Change effects on Watershed Hydrology and Water Quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaubey, I.; Cibin, R.; Frankenberger, J.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Volenec, J. J.; Brouder, S. M.

    2015-12-01

    High yielding perennial grasses such as Miscanthus and switchgrass, and crop residues such as corn stover are expected to play a significant role in meeting US biofuel production targets. We have evaluated the potential impacts of biofuel induced land use changes on hydrology, water quality, and ecosystem services. The bioenergy production scenarios, included: production of Miscanthus × giganteus and switchgrass on highly erodible landscape positions, agricultural marginal land areas, and pastures; removal of corn stover at various rates; and combinations of these scenarios. The hydrology and water quality impacts of land use change scenarios were estimated for two watersheds in Midwest USA (1) Wildcat Creek watershed (drainage area of 2,083 km2) located in north-central Indiana and (2) St. Joseph River watershed (drainage area of 2,809 km2) located in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan. We have also simulated the impacts of climate change and variability on environmental sustainability and have compared climate change impacts with land use change impacts. The study results indicated improved water quality with perennial grass scenarios compared to current row crop production impacts. Erosion reduction with perennial energy crop production scenarios ranged between 0.2% and 59%. Stream flow at the watershed outlet were reduced between 0.2 and 8% among various bioenergy crop production scenarios. Stover removal scenarios indicated increased erosion compared to baseline condition due reduced soil cover after stover harvest. Stream flow and nitrate loading were reduced with stover removal due to increased soil evaporation and reduced mineralization. A comparison of land use and climate change impacts indicates that land use changes will have considerably larger impacts on hydrology, water quality and environmental sustainability compared to climate change and variability. Our results indicate that production of biofuel crops can be optimized at the landscape level to provide

  8. Agricultural chemicals in groundwater of the midwestern United States: Relations to land use

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kolpin, D.W.

    1997-01-01

    To determine the relations between land use and concentrations of selected agricultural chemicals (nitrate, atrazine residue [atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino-s-triazine) + deethylatrazinc (2-amino-4-chloro-6-isopropylamino-s-triazine) + deisopropylatrazine (2-amino-4-chloro-6-ethylamino-s-triazine)], and alachlor residue [alachlor, [2-chloro-2′,6′-diethyl-N-(methoxymethyl) acetanilide] + alachlor ethanesulfonic acid (alachlor-ESA; 2-[(2,6-diethylphenyl)(methoxymethyl)amino]-2-oxoethanesulfonic acid)] in groundwater, detailed land use information based on accurate measurements from aerial photographs for the 1991 growing season was obtained within a 2-km radius surrounding 100 wells completed in near-surface unconsolidated aquifers in the midwestern USA. The most significant land use factors to the agricultural chemicals examined were: nitrate (amount of irrigated crop production, positive relation), atrazine residue (amount of irrigated crop production, positive relation), and alachlor residue (amount of highly erodible land, inverse relation). The investigation of smaller buffer sizes (size of circular area around sampled wells) proved insightful for this study. Additional land use factors having significant relations to all three agricultural chemicals were identified using these smaller buffer radii. The most significant correlations (correlation maxima) generally occurred at ≤500-m for nitrate and ≥1000-m for atrazine residue and alachlor residue. An attempt to improve the statistical relations to land use by taking hydrologic considerations into account (removing land outside the estimated most probable recharge area from the statistical analysis) was not as successful as anticipated. Only 45% of the nitrate, 32% of the atrazine residue, and 20% of the alachlor residue correlations were improved by a consideration of the estimated most probable recharge area.

  9. The assessment of land use change impact on watersheds runoff using SWAT: case study of Urmia Lake in Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jabbari, Anahita; Jarihani, Ben; Rezaie, Hossein

    2015-04-01

    Lake Urmia, long counted among the world's largest saltwater lakes, contains only 5% of the amount of water it did just 20 years ago. The decline is generally blamed on a combination of drought, increased water diversion for irrigated agriculture within the lake's watershed and land use mismanagement. It has been believed that land use changes in Lake Urmia basin is one of the most important factors in shrinkage of Urmia Lake in recent decades. Transforming the traditional agricultural practices (i.e., wheat) to the more water consuming practices (i.e., apple orchards) is one of the most important reasons increased agricultural water consumption in the watershed. In this study we assessed the effect of the land use changes of watershed in hydrological runoff processing in the Nazloo chai watershed, one of the most important river basins of the Urmia Lake basin. Actually the rapid and at the same time unreasonable transformations of land use in farm lands of Urmia lake sub basins, extremely has been raised the amount of blue water (surface or groundwater) consumption in watershed which leads to dramatic decrement of watershed runoff amounts. One of the most unfavorable consequences of land use change was changing the blue and green (rainwater insofar as it does not become runoff) water usage patterns in watershed, in addition to water use increment. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), one of the most important and reliable models which was used to model the rainfall runoff, has been used in current study. The land use maps were extracted from Landsat images archives for the most severe turning points in respect of land use change in the recent 30 years. After calibrating the model, several land use patterns of historical data were used in the model to produce the runoff. The results showed the strong relation between land use change and runoff reduction in the Lake Urmia basin.

  10. Impacts of agricultural land use on biological integrity: A causal analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Riseng, C.M.; Wiley, M.J.; Black, R.W.; Munn, M.D.

    2011-01-01

    Agricultural land use has often been linked to nutrient enrichment, habitat degradation, hydrologic alteration, and loss of biotic integrity in streams. The U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program sampled 226 stream sites located in eight agriculture-dominated study units across the United States to investigate the geographic variability and causes of agricultural impacts on stream biotic integrity. In this analysis we used structural equation modeling (SEM) to develop a national and set of regional causal models linking agricultural land use to measured instream conditions. We then examined the direct, indirect, and total effects of agriculture on biotic integrity as it acted through multiple water quality and habitat pathways. In our nation-wide model, cropland affected benthic communities by both altering structural habitats and by imposing water quality-related stresses. Regionspecific modeling demonstrated that geographic context altered the relative importance of causal pathways through which agricultural activities affected stream biotic integrity. Cropland had strong negative total effects on the invertebrate community in the national, Midwest, and Western models, but a very weak effect in the Eastern Coastal Plain model. In theWestern Arid and Eastern Coastal Plain study regions, cropland impacts were transmitted primarily through dissolved water quality contaminants, but in the Midwestern region, they were transmitted primarily through particulate components of water quality. Habitat effects were important in the Western Arid model, but negligible in the Midwest and Eastern Coastal Plain models. The relative effects of riparian forested wetlands also varied regionally, having positive effects on biotic integrity in the Eastern Coastal Plain andWestern Arid region models, but no statistically significant effect in the Midwest. These differences in response to cropland and riparian cover suggest that best management practices and

  11. Land use policy and agricultural water management of the previous half of century in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valipour, Mohammad

    2015-12-01

    This paper examines land use policy and agricultural water management in Africa from 1962 to 2011. For this purpose, data were gathered from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Bank Group. Using the FAO database, ten indices were selected: permanent crops to cultivated area (%), rural population to total population (%), total economically active population in agriculture to total economically active population (%), human development index, national rainfall index (mm/year), value added to gross domestic product by agriculture (%), irrigation water requirement (mm/year), percentage of total cultivated area drained (%), difference between national rainfall index and irrigation water requirement (mm/year), area equipped for irrigation to cultivated area or land use policy index (%). These indices were analyzed for all 53 countries in the study area and the land use policy index was estimated by two different formulas. The results show that value of relative error is <20 %. In addition, an average index was calculated using various methods to assess countries' conditions for agricultural water management. Ability of irrigation and drainage systems was studied using other eight indices with more limited information. These indices are surface irrigation (%), sprinkler irrigation (%), localized irrigation (%), spate irrigation (%), agricultural water withdrawal (10 km3/year), conservation agriculture area as percentage of cultivated area (%), percentage of area equipped for irrigation salinized (%), and area waterlogged by irrigation (%). Finally, tendency of farmers to use irrigation systems for cultivated crops has been presented. The results show that Africa needs governments' policy to encourage farmers to use irrigation systems and raise cropping intensity for irrigated area.

  12. Assessments of the contribution of land use change to the dust emission in Central Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xi, X.; Sokolik, I. N.

    2015-12-01

    While the dust emission from arid and semi-arid regions is known as a natural process induced by wind erosion, human may affect the dust emission directly through land use disturbances and indirectly by climate change. There has been much debate on the relative importance of climate change and land use to the global dust budget, as past estimates on the proportion of dust contributed by land use, in particular agricultural practices, remains very uncertain. This to the large extent stems from the way how human-made dust sources are identified and how they are treated in models. This study attempts to assess the land use contribution to the dust emission in Central Asia during 2000-2014 by conducting multiple experiments on the total emission in the WRF-Chem-DuMo model, and applying two methods to separate the natural and anthropogenic sources. The model experiments include realistic treatments of agriculture (e.g., expansion and abandonment) and water body changes (e.g., Aral Sea desiccation) in the land cover map of WRF-Chem-DuMo, but impose no arbitrary labeling of dust source type or adjustment to the erosion threshold. Intercomparison of the model experiments will be focused on the magnitude, interannual variability, and climate sensitivity of dust fluxes resulting from the selections of surface input data and dust flux parameterizations. Based on annual land use intensity maps, the sensitivity of the anthropogenic dust proportion to selection of the threshold value will be evaluated. In conjunction with the empirical method, satellite-derived annual land classifications will be used to track the land cover dynamics, and separate potential human-made source areas.

  13. Regional feedbacks under changing climate and land-use conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B. J.; van Minnen, J. G.

    2012-04-01

    Ecosystem responses to a changing climate and human-induced climate forcings (e.g. deforestation) might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial climate response. Feedbacks may include the biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical feedbacks (e.g. albedo and hydrological cycle). Here, we first review the most important feedbacks and put them into the context of a conceptual framework, including the major processes and interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and climate. We explore potential regional feedbacks in four hot spots with pronounced potential changes in land-use/management and local climate: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, the relevant human-induced climate forcings and feedbacks were identified based on published literature. When evapotranspiration is limited by a soil water deficit, heat waves in Europe are amplified (positive soil moisture-temperature feedback). Drought events in the Amazon lead to further rainfall reduction when water recycling processes are affected (positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback). In SSA, the adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems can modulate the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback. In contrast, future water shortage in South and Southeast Asia can turn the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback into a positive one. Further research including advanced modeling strategies is needed to isolate the dominant processes affecting the strength and sign of the feedbacks. In addition, the socio-economic dimension needs to be considered in the ecosystems-climate system to include the essential role of human decisions on land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). In this context, enhanced integration between Earth System (ES) and Integrated Assessment (IA) modeling communities is strongly recommended.

  14. Land-Use Change: Impacts of Climate Variations and Policies Examples From Northern Shaanxi Province, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ostwald, M.

    2003-12-01

    Phases of dynamical change are taking place in many developing countries causing land-use change. In China there has been enormous economic growth since 1978 followed by impacts on the environmental, social and economical conduct of the society. One of the counter actions taken by the Government to halt the environmental degradation in the Loess Plateau has been the introduction of the Crop Conversion Program in 1999, stopping agricultural activity in slope areas, mainly used by small-scale farmers. At the same time climate variations have also been evident in the area with decreases in rainfall and increases in temperature since 1970. The aim here is to examine what vegetation changes are seen on large scales in the area from 2000-2002, and how they correlate to local land-use changes. We then investigate how the land-use changes correlated with climate variations and/or policies and reforms. The data included in this integrated assessment includes remote sensing information from MODIS and ASTER images, climate and statistical data as well as farmer's participatory data. The results show that the large-scale vegetation has increased and that correlates well with dramatic local land-use change caused by the policy implementation. This however is not correlated with the climate variation found during this time (both lagged and simultaneous) which show a less favorable vegetation condition; all very well perceived by farmers. Hence the direct force behind the extreme land-use change is more associated with policy and economics than climate

  15. Temporal change in land use by irrigation source in Tamil Nadu and management implications.

    PubMed

    Gumma, Murali Krishna; Kajisa, Kei; Mohammed, Irshad A; Whitbread, Anthony M; Nelson, Andrew; Rala, Arnel; Palanisami, K

    2015-01-01

    Interannual variation in rainfall throughout Tamil Nadu has been causing frequent and noticeable land use changes despite the rapid development in groundwater irrigation. Identifying periodically water-stressed areas is the first and crucial step to minimizing negative effects on crop production. Such analysis must be conducted at the basin level as it is an independent water accounting unit. This paper investigates the temporal variation in irrigated area between 2000-2001 and 2010-2011 due to rainfall variation at the state and sub-basin level by mapping and classifying Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 8-day composite satellite imagery using spectral matching techniques. A land use/land cover map was drawn with an overall classification accuracy of 87.2%. Area estimates between the MODIS-derived net irrigated area and district-level statistics (2000-2001 to 2007-2008) were in 95% agreement. A significant decrease in irrigated area (30-40%) was observed during the water-stressed years of 2002-2003, 2003-2004, and 2009-2010. Major land use changes occurred three times during 2000 to 2010. This study demonstrates how remote sensing can identify areas that are prone to repeated land use changes and pin-point key target areas for the promotion of drought-tolerant varieties, alternative water management practices, and new cropping patterns to ensure sustainable agriculture for food security and livelihoods. PMID:25481120

  16. Quantitative analysis and simulation of land use changes in the Pearl River Delta, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Honghui; Zeng, Yongnian; Zou, Bin; Xiao, Pengfeng; Hu, Deyong; Peng, Jianchao

    2007-06-01

    This paper analyzes and simulates the land use changes in the Pearl River Delta, China, using Longgang City as a case study. The region has pioneered the nation in economic development and urbanization process. Tremendous land use changes have been witnessed since the economic reform in 1978. Land use changes are analyzed and simulated by using stochastic cellular automata model, land use trajectories analysis, spatial indices and multi-temporal TM images of Longgang City (TM1987, TM1991, TM1995, TM1999, TM2003, TM2005) in order to understand how urbanization has transformed the non-urban land to urban land and estimate the consequent environment and ecological impacts in this region. The analysis and simulation results show that urban land continues to sprawl along road and fringe of towns, and concomitant to this development is the loss of agricultural land, orchards and fish ponds. This study provides new evidence with spatial details about the uneven land development in the Pearl River Delta.

  17. Thermal Band Analysis of Agricultural Land Use and its Effects on Bioclimatic Comfort: The Case of Pasinler

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avdan, Uǧur; Demircioglu Yildiz, Nalan; Dagliyar, Ayse; Yigit Avdan, Zehra; Yilmaz, Sevgi

    2014-05-01

    Resolving the problems that arise due to the land use are not suitable for the purpose in the rural and urban areas most suitable for land use of parameters to be determined. Unintended and unplanned developments in the use of agricultural land in our country caused increases the losses by soil erosion. In this study, Thermal Band analysis is made in Pasinler city center with the aim of identifying bioclimatic comfort values of the different agricultural area. Satellite images can be applied for assessing the thermal urban environment as well as for defining heat islands in agricultural areas. In this context, temperature map is tried to be produced with land surface temperature (LST) analysis made on Landsat TM5 satellite image. The Landsat 5 images was obtained from USGS for the study area. Using Landsat bands of the study area was mapped by supervised classification with the maximum likelihood classification algorithm of ERDAS imagine 2011 software. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) image was produced by using Landsat images. The digital number of the Landsat thermal infrared band (10.40 - 12.50 µm) is converted to the spectral radiance. The surface emissivity was calculated by using NDVI. The spatial pattern of land surface temperature in the study area is taken to characterize their local effects on agricultural land. Areas having bioclimatic comfort and ecologically urbanized, are interpreted with different graphical presentation technics. The obtained results are important because they create data bases for sustainable urban planning and provide a direction for planners and governors. As a result of rapid changes in land use, rural ecosystems and quality of life are deteriorated and decreased. In the presence of increased building density, for the comfortable living of people natural and cultural resources should be analyzed in detail. For that reason, optimal land use planning should be made in rural area.

  18. The effects of environmental and socioeconomic factors on land-use changes: a study of Alberta, Canada.

    PubMed

    Ruan, Xiaofeng; Qiu, Feng; Dyck, Miles

    2016-08-01

    Various environmental and socioeconomic issues have been attributed to land-use changes, and therefore, the underlying mechanisms merit investigation and quantification. This study assesses a comprehensive series of land-use conversions that were implemented over a recent 12-year period in the province of Alberta, Canada, where rapid economic and population growth has occurred. Spatial autocorrelation models are applied to identify the comprehensive effects of environmental and socioeconomic factors in each conversion case. The empirical results show that the impacts of key environmental and socioeconomic factors varied in intensity depending on the type of land-use conversion involved. Overall, land suitability for agricultural uses, road density, elevation, and population growth were found to be significant predictors of land-use changes. High land suitability, low elevation, and moderate road density were associated with land conversion for agricultural purposes. PMID:27376846

  19. Land-use change, economics, and rural well-being in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gascoigne, William R.; Hoag, Dana L.K.; Johnson, Rex R.; Koontz, Lynne M.; Thomas, Catherine Cullinane

    2013-01-01

    This fact sheet highlights findings included in a comprehensive new report (see USGS Professional Paper 1800) which investigated land-use change, economic characteristics, and rural community well-being in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. Once one of the largest grassland-wetlands ecosystems on earth, the North American prairie has experienced extensive conversion to cultivated agriculture, with farming becoming the dominant land use in the region over the last century. Both perennial habitat lands and agricultural croplands retain importance economically, socially, and culturally. Greatly increased oil and gas development in recent years brought rises in employment and income but also stressed infrastructure, cost of living, and crime rates. Research described in these reports focuses on land-use dynamics and illuminates how economic variables and rural development in the Prairie Pothole Region might be influenced as land uses change.

  20. Modeling Land Use Change In A Tropical Environment Using Similar Hydrologic Response Units

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guardiola-Claramonte, M.; Troch, P.

    2006-12-01

    Montane mainland South East Asia comprises areas of great biological and cultural diversity. Over the last decades the region has overcome an important conversion from traditional agriculture to cash crop agriculture driven by regional and global markets. Our study aims at understanding the hydrological implications of these land use changes at the catchment scale. In 2004, networks of hydro-meteorological stations observing water and energy fluxes were installed in two 70 km2 catchments in Northern Thailand (Chiang Mai Province) and Southern China (Yunnan Province). In addition, a detailed soil surveying campaign was done at the moment of instrument installation. Land use is monitored periodically using satellite data. The Thai catchment is switching from small agricultural fields to large extensions of cash crops. The Chinese catchment is replacing the traditional forest for rubber plantations. A first comparative study based on catchments' geomorphologic characteristics, field observations and rainfall-runoff response revealed the dominant hydrologic processes in the catchments. Land use information is then translated into three different Hydrologic Response Units (HRU): rice paddies, pervious and impervious surfaces. The pervious HRU include different land uses such as different stages of forest development, rubber plantations, and agricultural fields; the impervious ones are urban areas, roads and outcrops. For each HRU a water and energy balance model is developed incorporating field observed hydrologic processes, measured field parameters, and literature-based vegetation and soil parameters to better describe the root zone, surface and subsurface flow characteristics without the need of further calibration. The HRU water and energy balance models are applied to single hillslopes and their integrated hydrologic response are compared for different land covers. Finally, the response of individual hillslopes is routed through the channel network to represent

  1. Land-use policies and corporate investments in agriculture in the Gran Chaco and Chiquitano.

    PubMed

    le Polain de Waroux, Yann; Garrett, Rachael D; Heilmayr, Robert; Lambin, Eric F

    2016-04-12

    Growing demand for agricultural commodities is causing the expansion of agricultural frontiers onto native vegetation worldwide. Agribusiness companies linking these frontiers to distant spaces of consumption through global commodity chains increasingly make zero-deforestation pledges. However, production and land conversion are often carried out by less-visible local and regional actors that are mobile and responsive to new agricultural expansion opportunities and legal constraints on land use. With more stringent deforestation regulations in some countries, we ask whether their movements are determined partly by differences in land-use policies, resulting in "deforestation havens." We analyze the determinants of investment decisions by agricultural companies in the Gran Chaco and Chiquitano, a region that has become the new deforestation "hot spot" in South America. We test whether companies seek out less-regulated forest areas for new agricultural investments. Based on interviews with 82 companies totaling 2.5 Mha of properties, we show that, in addition to proximity to current investments and the availability of cheap forestland, lower deforestation regulations attract investments by companies that tend to clear more forest, mostly cattle ranching operations, and that lower enforcement attracts all companies. Avoiding deforestation leakage requires harmonizing deforestation regulations across regions and commodities and promoting sustainable intensification in cattle ranching. PMID:27035995

  2. Land-use policies and corporate investments in agriculture in the Gran Chaco and Chiquitano

    PubMed Central

    le Polain de Waroux, Yann; Garrett, Rachael D.; Heilmayr, Robert; Lambin, Eric F.

    2016-01-01

    Growing demand for agricultural commodities is causing the expansion of agricultural frontiers onto native vegetation worldwide. Agribusiness companies linking these frontiers to distant spaces of consumption through global commodity chains increasingly make zero-deforestation pledges. However, production and land conversion are often carried out by less-visible local and regional actors that are mobile and responsive to new agricultural expansion opportunities and legal constraints on land use. With more stringent deforestation regulations in some countries, we ask whether their movements are determined partly by differences in land-use policies, resulting in “deforestation havens.” We analyze the determinants of investment decisions by agricultural companies in the Gran Chaco and Chiquitano, a region that has become the new deforestation “hot spot” in South America. We test whether companies seek out less-regulated forest areas for new agricultural investments. Based on interviews with 82 companies totaling 2.5 Mha of properties, we show that, in addition to proximity to current investments and the availability of cheap forestland, lower deforestation regulations attract investments by companies that tend to clear more forest, mostly cattle ranching operations, and that lower enforcement attracts all companies. Avoiding deforestation leakage requires harmonizing deforestation regulations across regions and commodities and promoting sustainable intensification in cattle ranching. PMID:27035995

  3. Estimating global land use change over the past 300 years: The HYDE Database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldewijk, Kees Klein

    2001-06-01

    Testing against historical data is an important step for validating integrated models of global environmental change. Owing to long time lags in the climate system, these models should aim the simulation of the land use dynamics for long periods, i.e., spanning decades up to a century. Developing such models requires understanding of past and current trends and is therefore strongly data dependent. For this purpose, a history database of the global environment has been developed: HYDE. This paper describes and analyzes parts of HYDE version 2.0, presenting historical population and land use patterns for the past 300 years. Results suggest, among other things, a global increase of cropland area from 265 million ha in 1700 to 1471 million ha in 1990, while the area of pasture has increased more than six fold from 524 to 3451 million ha. In general, the increase of man-made agricultural land took place at the expense of natural grasslands and to a lesser extent of forests. There are differences between the several regions in the temporal pace of these land use conversions. The temperate/developed regions of Canada, United States, USSR, and Oceania appear to have had their strongest increase during the 19th century, while most of the tropical/developing regions witnessed the largest land use conversions at the end of the last century. Results of this analysis can be used to test integrated models of global change and are available at http://www.rivm.nl/env/int/hyde/.

  4. Land Use and Management Change in the U.S. with Adaptation and Mitigation under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mu, J. E.; McCarl, B.

    2011-12-01

    Land use and management change interact with climate change. Land uses such as forestry, cropping and grazing depend on specific ecosystems that will be affected by climate change. Furthermore, this change will not be uniform across land uses or regions. Consequently, land use productivity will change as will the mix of land uses (Mendelsohn and Dinar 2009). On the other hand, land use has been a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC 2007). Therefore, research focusing on land use change, climate change and greenhouse gas mitigation should consider the interaction between these effects. The research to be reported in this presentation investigates how agricultural and forestry land use and management decisions change across the coterminous U.S. under climate change with and without adaptation plus how a carbon price policy influences decisions, mitigates GHG emissions and alters carbon sequestration. Our approach is to simulate behavior under climate scenarios by 2030 using data from alternative two climate and two vegetation models while allowing for adaptive responses and imposing carbon prices. To do this, we use the Forest and Agricultural Optimization model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG) (Adams et al. 2005). In total, 16 scenarios are considered involving climate change and GHG prices relative to a base case with no climate change and no adaptation or mitigation. After analyzing results across regions and sectors, our findings include: 1.More land is converted to forestry use and less land is used for agricultural purposes under both the adaptation and mitigation strategies. 2. Harvest rotation of hardwood is lengthened and harvest of softwood and hardwood are reduced when a carbon price is included. However, such management changes were insignificant when only the adaptation strategy is used. 3. The total GHG emissions from agricultural and forestry sector are increased by 2-3 millions tones CO2 equivalent under climate change and adaptation

  5. Recent trends in water quality in an agricultural catchment in Eastern Scotland: elucidating the roles of hydrology and land use.

    PubMed

    Dunn, S M; Sample, J; Potts, J; Abel, C; Cook, Y; Taylor, C; Vinten, A J A

    2014-07-01

    Across the EU, programmes of measures have been introduced as part of river basin management planning as a means of tackling problems of diffuse pollution from agriculture. Evidence is required to demonstrate the effectiveness of these measures and with this overarching objective, monitoring of an agricultural catchment in Eastern Scotland was initiated in 2007. As a precursor to evaluating the effect of new management measures it is essential to understand how other factors, including hydrology and land use changes, could have influenced water quality. This study undertook an analysis of the trends in concentrations and loads of nitrate, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), suspended solids (SS) and turbidity measured at six points in the catchment over a six year period. The results identified both differing trends between determinands and differing trends occurring over varying spatial scales. The only direct relationships between land use and water quality that could be identified based on annual data was a positive link between arable cropping and nitrate concentrations. At the sub-catchment scale some temporal changes in land use and management explained short-term trends in nitrate but not in SRP. Lags in the system were identified due to soil adsorption, in-stream/loch processing and groundwater transport making the identification of cause and effect problematic. The results have implications for the demonstration of effectiveness of measures over the shorter term and the timescales of recovery from diffuse pollution. Longer term monitoring at small scales will be important in this regard. PMID:24718675

  6. Changes in soil carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus due to land-use changes in Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Groppo, J. D.; Lins, S. R. M.; Camargo, P. B.; Assad, E. D.; Pinto, H. S.; Martins, S. C.; Salgado, P. R.; Evangelista, B.; Vasconcellos, E.; Sano, E. E.; Pavão, E.; Luna, R.; Martinelli, L. A.

    2015-08-01

    In this paper, soil carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations and stocks were investigated in agricultural and natural areas in 17 plot-level paired sites and in a regional survey encompassing more than 100 pasture soils In the paired sites, elemental soil concentrations and stocks were determined in native vegetation (forests and savannas), pastures and crop-livestock systems (CPSs). Nutrient stocks were calculated for the soil depth intervals 0-10, 0-30, and 0-60 cm for the paired sites and 0-10, and 0-30 cm for the pasture regional survey by sum stocks obtained in each sampling intervals (0-5, 5-10, 10-20, 20-30, 30-40, 40-60 cm). Overall, there were significant differences in soil element concentrations and ratios between different land uses, especially in the surface soil layers. Carbon and nitrogen contents were lower, while phosphorus contents were higher in the pasture and CPS soils than in native vegetation soils. Additionally, soil stoichiometry has changed with changes in land use. The soil C : N ratio was lower in the native vegetation than in the pasture and CPS soils, and the carbon and nitrogen to available phosphorus ratio (PME) decreased from the native vegetation to the pasture to the CPS soils. In the plot-level paired sites, the soil nitrogen stocks were lower in all depth intervals in pasture and in the CPS soils when compared with the native vegetation soils. On the other hand, the soil phosphorus stocks were higher in all depth intervals in agricultural soils when compared with the native vegetation soils. For the regional pasture survey, soil nitrogen and phosphorus stocks were lower in all soil intervals in pasture soils than in native vegetation soils. The nitrogen loss with cultivation observed here is in line with other studies and it seems to be a combination of decreasing organic matter inputs, in cases where crops replaced native forests, with an increase in soil organic matter decomposition that leads to a decrease in the long

  7. Climatic and land-use driven change of runoff throughout Sweden

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Worman, A. L. E.; Riml, J.; Lindstrom, G.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in runoff can be caused by climatic variations, land-use changes and water regulation. In this paper we propose a separation of the power spectral response of runoff in watersheds in terms of the product of the power spectra of precipitation and the impulse response function for the watershed. This allows a formal separation of the spectral response in climatic factors - the precipitation - from those of land-use change and regulation - the impulse response function. The latter function characterizes the surface water-groundwater interaction, stream network topology and open channel hydraulics. Based on daily data of digitalized hydro-climatological data from 1961, we constructed synthetic, but calibrated data of runoff from 1001 watersheds in Sweden. From spectral analysis of the data we found periodic fluctuations occurring on time scales of about a decade and a bi-annual peak. These multi-annual fluctuations could be statistically linked through the coherence spectra to climatic indices like the NAO, PDO, geostrophic wind velocity and sun spot numbers on common periods of 3,6 and 7,6 years. Such long-term fluctuations in runoff are not significantly affected by the land-use or regulation other than indirectly through impact on local hydro-climate. Based on a spectral separation of precipitation and impulse response function of the watersheds, we found that the intra-annual variation in runoff was primarily affected by the land-use change in 79 unregulated catchments with up to century-long time series of measured daily discharge. There is a statistically significant increasing slope of the catchments impulse response function for 63 of the 79 catchments and this suggest a significant hydrological effect of land-use practice in agriculture, urbanisation and forestry.

  8. Land use change and landslide characteristics analysis for community-based disaster mitigation.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chien-Yuan; Huang, Wen-Lin

    2013-05-01

    On August 8, 2009, Typhoon Morakot brought heavy rain to Taiwan, causing numerous landslides and debris flows in the Taihe village area of Meishan Township, Chiayi County, in south-central Taiwan. In the Taihe land is primary used for agriculture and land use management may be a factor in the area's landslides. This study explores Typhoon Morakot-induced landslides and land use changes between 1999 and 2009 using GIS with the aid of field investigation. Spot 5 satellite images with a resolution of 2.5 m are used for landslide interpretation and manually digitalized in GIS. A statistical analysis for landslide frequency-area distribution was used to identify the landslide characteristics associated with different types of land use. There were 243 landslides with a total area of 2.75 km(2) in the study area. The area is located in intrinsically fragile combinations of sandstone and shale. Typhoon Morakot-induced landslides show a power-law distribution in the study area. Landslides were mainly located in steep slope areas containing natural forest and in areas planted with bamboo, tea, and betel nut. Land covered with natural forest shows the highest landslide ratio, followed by bamboo, betel nut, and tea. Landslides thus show a higher ratio in areas planted with shallow root vegetation such as bamboo, betel nut, and tea. Furthermore, the degree of basin development is proportional to the landslide ratio. The results show that a change in vegetation cover results in a modified landslide area and frequency and changed land use areas have higher landslide ratios than non-changed. Land use management and community-based disaster prevention are needed in mountainous areas of Taiwan for hazard mitigation. PMID:22961329

  9. Integrated modelling of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change on the global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaldach, R.; Koch, J.; Alcamo, J.

    2009-04-01

    In many cases land-use activities go hand in hand with substantial modifications of the physical and biological cover of the Earth's surface, resulting in direct effects on energy and matter fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. For instance, the conversion of forest to cropland is changing climate relevant surface parameters (e.g. albedo) as well as evapotranspiration processes and carbon flows. In turn, human land-use decisions are also influenced by environmental processes. Changing temperature and precipitation patterns for example are important determinants for location and intensity of agriculture. Due to these close linkages, processes of land-use and related land-cover change should be considered as important components in the construction of Earth System models. A major challenge in modelling land-use change on the global scale is the integration of socio-economic aspects and human decision making with environmental processes. One of the few global approaches that integrates functional components to represent both anthropogenic and environmental aspects of land-use change, is the LandSHIFT model. It simulates the spatial and temporal dynamics of the human land-use activities settlement, cultivation of food crops and grazing management, which compete for the available land resources. The rational of the model is to regionalize the demands for area intensive commodities (e.g. crop production) and services (e.g. space for housing) from the country-level to a global grid with the spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. The modelled land-use decisions within the agricultural sector are influenced by changing climate and the resulting effects on biomass productivity. Currently, this causal chain is modelled by integrating results from the process-based vegetation model LPJmL model for changing crop yields and net primary productivity of grazing land. Model output of LandSHIFT is a time series of grid maps with land-use/land-cover information

  10. Seasonal temperature responses to land-use change in the western United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kueppers, L.M.; Snyder, M.A.; Sloan, L.C.; Cayan, D.; Jin, J.; Kanamaru, H.; Kanamitsu, M.; Miller, N.L.; Tyree, Mary; Du, H.; Weare, B.

    2008-01-01

    In the western United States, more than 79 000??km2 has been converted to irrigated agriculture and urban areas. These changes have the potential to alter surface temperature by modifying the energy budget at the land-atmosphere interface. This study reports the seasonally varying temperature responses of four regional climate models (RCMs) - RSM, RegCM3, MM5-CLM3, and DRCM - to conversion of potential natural vegetation to modern land-cover and land-use over a 1-year period. Three of the RCMs supplemented soil moisture, producing large decreases in the August mean (- 1.4 to - 3.1????C) and maximum (- 2.9 to - 6.1????C) 2-m air temperatures where natural vegetation was converted to irrigated agriculture. Conversion to irrigated agriculture also resulted in large increases in relative humidity (9% to 36% absolute change). Modeled changes in the August minimum 2-m air temperature were not as pronounced or consistent across the models. Converting natural vegetation to urban land-cover produced less pronounced temperature effects in all models, with the magnitude of the effect dependent upon the preexisting vegetation type and urban parameterizations. Overall, the RCM results indicate that the temperature impacts of land-use change are most pronounced during the summer months, when surface heating is strongest and differences in surface soil moisture between irrigated land and natural vegetation are largest. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Changes in streamflow characteristics in Wisconsin as related to precipitation and land use

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gebert, Warren A.; Garn, Herbert S.; Rose, William J.

    2016-01-01

    Streamflow characteristics were determined for 15 longterm streamflow-gaging stations for the periods 1915–2008, 1915–68, and 1969–2008 to identify trends. Stations selected represent flow characteristics for the major river basins in Wisconsin. Trends were statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level at 13 of the 15 streamflow-gaging stations for various streamflow characteristics for 1915–2008. Most trends indicated increases in low flows for streams with agriculture as the dominant land use. The three most important findings are: increases in low flows and average flows in agricultural watersheds, decreases in flood peak discharge for many streams in both agricultural and forested watersheds, and climatic change occurred with increasing annual precipitation and changes in monthly occurrence of precipitation. When the 1915–68 period is compared to the 1969–2008 period, the annual 7-day low flow increased an average of 60 percent for nine streams in agricultural areas as compared to a 15 percent increase for the five forested streams. Average annual flow for the same periods increased 23 percent for the agriculture streams and 0.6 percent for the forested streams. The annual flood peak discharge for the same periods decreased 15 percent for agriculture streams and 8 percent for forested streams. The largest increase in the annual 7-day low flow was 117 percent, the largest increase in annual average flow was 41 percent, and the largest decrease in annual peak discharge was 51 percent. The trends in streamflow characteristics affect frequency characteristics, which are used for a variety of design and compliance purposes. The frequencies for the 1969–2008 period were compared to frequencies for the 1915–68 period. The 7-day, 10-year (Q7, 10) low flow increased 91 percent for nine agricultural streams, while the five forested streams had an increase of 18 percent. The 100-year flood peak discharge decreased an average of 15 percent

  12. Land use/cover change detection and urban sprawl analysis in Bandar Abbas city, Iran.

    PubMed

    Dadras, Mohsen; Shafri, Helmi Zulhaidi Mohd; Ahmad, Noordin; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Safarpour, Sahabeh

    2014-01-01

    The process of land use change and urban sprawl has been considered as a prominent characteristic of urban development. This study aims to investigate urban growth process in Bandar Abbas city, Iran, focusing on urban sprawl and land use change during 1956-2012. To calculate urban sprawl and land use changes, aerial photos and satellite images are utilized in different time spans. The results demonstrate that urban region area has changed from 403.77 to 4959.59 hectares between 1956 and 2012. Moreover, the population has increased more than 30 times in last six decades. The major part of population growth is related to migration from other parts the country to Bandar Abbas city. Considering the speed of urban sprawl growth rate, the scale and the role of the city have changed from medium and regional to large scale and transregional. Due to natural and structural limitations, more than 80% of barren lands, stone cliffs, beach zone, and agricultural lands are occupied by built-up areas. Our results revealed that the irregular expansion of Bandar Abbas city must be controlled so that sustainable development could be achieved. PMID:25276858

  13. Land Use/Cover Change Detection and Urban Sprawl Analysis in Bandar Abbas City, Iran

    PubMed Central

    Mohd Shafri, Helmi Zulhaidi; Ahmad, Noordin; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Safarpour, Sahabeh

    2014-01-01

    The process of land use change and urban sprawl has been considered as a prominent characteristic of urban development. This study aims to investigate urban growth process in Bandar Abbas city, Iran, focusing on urban sprawl and land use change during 1956–2012. To calculate urban sprawl and land use changes, aerial photos and satellite images are utilized in different time spans. The results demonstrate that urban region area has changed from 403.77 to 4959.59 hectares between 1956 and 2012. Moreover, the population has increased more than 30 times in last six decades. The major part of population growth is related to migration from other parts the country to Bandar Abbas city. Considering the speed of urban sprawl growth rate, the scale and the role of the city have changed from medium and regional to large scale and transregional. Due to natural and structural limitations, more than 80% of barren lands, stone cliffs, beach zone, and agricultural lands are occupied by built-up areas. Our results revealed that the irregular expansion of Bandar Abbas city must be controlled so that sustainable development could be achieved. PMID:25276858

  14. Impacts of Land Use Change on Energy Usage and Ghg Emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeyachandran, I.; Eltrop, L.; Jenssen, T.; Marathe, S. D.

    2014-12-01

    Urbanization has a profound impact on landscape modification and subsequent impacts on energy usage and associated Green House Gas (GHG) emissions. In this paper, a methodology to assess the impact of land use change on energy demand and Green House Gas emissions using remote sensing data is presented. The methodology development was carried out using region of Stuttgart, Germany as the case study for the time period of 1990 to 2006. The first step involved using Corine land cover corresponding to the years 1990, 2000 and 2006 in conjunction with the administrative boundary map of the region of Stuttgart to assess the land use change from 1990 to 2006. The second step of the methodology involved using ATKIS building data of 2004 in conjunction with the land use data of 1990, and 2000 to identify the buildings in 1990 and 2000 and assess the land use conversion to built areas due to urbanization. Also the building types were identified, and the energy usage for heating and cooling was modeled using local guidelines. As the final step, the GHG emissions associated with heating and energy demand was estimated for the years 1990, 2000 and 2004 using the empirical relation set by Öko-Institute (2011). The results of the study indicate that there has been a significant increase in urban residential built surfaces (17%) and decrease in urban greenery, forest and agricultural areas during the time period of 1990 to 2004. The increase in residential built surfaces has resulted in an increase of electricity and heating demand and a subsequent increase in GHG emissions(14%). The methodology presented in this paper brings forth the use of remote sensing to estimate and predict GHG emissions resulting from land use changes.

  15. Modelling climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction impacts on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bussi, Gianbattista; Whitehead, Paul; Dadson, Simon

    2016-04-01

    In this study, we assess the impact of changes in precipitation and temperature on the phytoplankton concentration of the River Thames (UK) by means of a physically-based model. A scenario-neutral approach was employed to evaluate the effects of climate variability on flow, phosphorus concentration and phytoplankton concentration. In particular, the impact of uniform changes in precipitation and temperature on five groups of phytoplankton (diatoms and large chlorophytes, other chlorophytes, picoalgae, Microcystis-like cyanobacteria and other cyanobacteria) was assessed under three different land-use/land-management scenarios (1 - current land use and phosphorus reduction practices; 2 - expansion of agricultural land and current phosphorus reduction practices; 3 - expansion of agricultural land and optimal phosphorus reduction practices). The model results were assessed within the framework of future climate projections, using the UK Climate Projections 09 (UKCP09) for the 2030s. The results of the model demonstrate that an increase in average phytoplankton concentration due to climate change is highly likely to occur, and its magnitude varies depending on the river reach. Cyanobacteria show significant increases under future climate change and land-use change. An expansion of intensive agriculture accentuates the growth in phytoplankton, especially in the upper reaches of the River Thames. However, an optimal phosphorus removal mitigation strategy, which combines reduction of fertiliser application and phosphorus removal from wastewater, can help to reduce this increase in phytoplankton concentration, and in some cases, compensate for the effect of rising temperature.

  16. Land-use and environmental changes in the Cerrados of South-Eastern Mato Grosso -- Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grecchi, Rosana Cristina

    The human-induced changes of the Earth's land surfaces have been unprecedented, with outcomes often indicating degradation and loss of environmental quality. Mato Grosso State in Brazil, location of the study area, underwent extensive land-use and land-cover changes in recent decades with the rates, patterns and consequences poorly documented until now. In this context, the aim of the present research is to propose a multidisciplinary approach for quantifying historical land-use and environmental changes in the southeast part of this State, where the Cerrado biome (Brazilian savannas) has been intensively converted into agricultural lands. The methodology includes three parts: remote sensing change detection, land vulnerability mapping, and identification of key environmental indicators. Land-use/cover information was extracted from a temporal remote sensing dataset using an object-oriented classification approach, and the changes quantified employing a post-classification method. In addition, the study area was assessed for its vulnerabilities, focusing mainly on erosion risks, wetlands, and areas with limited or no suitability for crops. Finally, key environmental indicators were identified from the preceding steps and analyzed within the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework. The results provided an improved mapping of the Cerrados natural vegetation conversion into crops and pastures, and indicate that the Cerrado vegetation was intensively converted and also became more fragmented in the time frame studied. Between 1985 and 2005 the area lost approximately 6491 km 2 of Cerrados (42 %). Modeling based on the Universal Soil Loss Equation indicated significant increase in erosion risk from 1985 to 2005 mainly related to the increase in crop areas and the crops' encroachment into more fragile lands. The identification of environmental indicators rendered complex environmental information more

  17. Impact of Land-Use Intensity and Productivity on Bryophyte Diversity in Agricultural Grasslands

    PubMed Central

    Müller, Jörg; Klaus, Valentin H.; Kleinebecker, Till; Prati, Daniel; Hölzel, Norbert; Fischer, Markus

    2012-01-01

    While bryophytes greatly contribute to plant diversity of semi-natural grasslands, little is known about the relationships between land-use intensity, productivity, and bryophyte diversity in these habitats. We recorded vascular plant and bryophyte vegetation in 85 agricultural used grasslands in two regions in northern and central Germany and gathered information on land-use intensity. To assess grassland productivity, we harvested aboveground vascular plant biomass and analyzed nutrient concentrations of N, P, K, Ca and Mg. Further we calculated mean Ellenberg indicator values of vascular plant vegetation. We tested for effects of land-use intensity and productivity on total bryophyte species richness and on the species richness of acrocarpous (small & erect) and pleurocarpous (creeping, including liverworts) growth forms separately. Bryophyte species were found in almost all studied grasslands, but species richness differed considerably between study regions in northern Germany (2.8 species per 16 m2) and central Germany (6.4 species per 16 m2) due environmental differences as well as land-use history. Increased fertilizer application, coinciding with high mowing frequency, reduced bryophyte species richness significantly. Accordingly, productivity estimates such as plant biomass and nitrogen concentration were strongly negatively related to bryophyte species richness, although productivity decreased only pleurocarpous species. Ellenberg indicator values for nutrients proved to be useful indicators of species richness and productivity. In conclusion, bryophyte composition was strongly dependent on productivity, with smaller bryophytes that were likely negatively affected by greater competition for light. Intensive land-use, however, can also indirectly decrease bryophyte species richness by promoting grassland productivity. Thus, increasing productivity is likely to cause a loss of bryophyte species and a decrease in species diversity. PMID:23251563

  18. The Trajectories and Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Change: A Global Synthesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mustard, J. F.; Fisher, T. R.; Prince, S. D.; Soja, A. J.; Elmore, A. J.

    2001-12-01

    We have summarized the trajectories of land cover and land use change (LCLUC) and the resulting impacts through a synthesis of results from studies encompassing a wide range of environments. While the specific changes and impacts are in some ways unique to each environment, we have nevertheless identified some general principles that seem to apply across all regions. The LCLUC trajectory of a particular landscape under influence by human actions begins with the transition from conditions dominated by natural vegetation to a frontier state. Land use activities in a frontier state are centered primarily around resource extraction and development of infrastructure such as roads or ports. Under the proper conditions (e.g. soils, climate), the frontier state gives way to an agricultural landscape by further conversion of natural vegetation to agriculture and management of cleared land for agriculture. The maximum extent of this conversion is a function of local biophysical and socio-economic factors. For example conversion of arid lands may be limited by water availability, access to capital for development of water resources and access to markets for the products. Given the appropriate conditions (e.g. economic and social policy, generation of wealth), LCLUC evolves as large settlements and industrialization develop in concert with high land prices and agricultural intensification. In some cases (e.g., New England, Appalachia), economic conditions (e.g., better land for agriculture elsewhere) may result in reversion of agriculture to natural vegetation. The last stage in LCLUC is conversion of agriculture to residential and suburban environments (e.g., Baltimore/Washington corridor). Examination of global land cover indicates that every stage is currently present, with areas like the Eastern United States and Western Europe as examples of regions having experienced all stages, while parts of the Amazon basin, Siberia, and Africa are moving through the frontier

  19. Land Use Change, Fuel Use and Respiratory Health in Uganda

    PubMed Central

    Jagger, Pamela; Shively, Gerald

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines how biomass supply and consumption are affected by land use change in Uganda. We find that between 2007 and 2012 there was a 22% reduction in fuelwood sourced from proximate forests, and an 18% increase in fuelwood sourced from fallows and other areas with lower biomass availability and quality. We estimate a series of panel regression models and find that deforestation has a negative effect on total fuel consumed. We also find that access to forests, whether through ownership or proximity, plays a large role in determining fuel use. We then explore whether patterns of biomass fuel consumption are related to the incidence of acute respiratory infection using a cross-sectional data set of 1209 women and 598 children. We find a positive and significant relationship between ARI and the quantity of fuelwood from non-forest areas; a 100 kilogram increase in fuelwood sourced from a non-forest area results in a 2.4% increase in the incidence of ARI for children. We find the inverse effect of increased reliance on crop residues. As deforestation reduces the availability of high quality fuelwood, rural households may experience higher incidence of health problems associated with exposure to biomass burning. PMID:24535892

  20. Land Use Change, Fuel Use and Respiratory Health in Uganda.

    PubMed

    Jagger, Pamela; Shively, Gerald

    2014-04-01

    This paper examines how biomass supply and consumption are affected by land use change in Uganda. We find that between 2007 and 2012 there was a 22% reduction in fuelwood sourced from proximate forests, and an 18% increase in fuelwood sourced from fallows and other areas with lower biomass availability and quality. We estimate a series of panel regression models and find that deforestation has a negative effect on total fuel consumed. We also find that access to forests, whether through ownership or proximity, plays a large role in determining fuel use. We then explore whether patterns of biomass fuel consumption are related to the incidence of acute respiratory infection using a cross-sectional data set of 1209 women and 598 children. We find a positive and significant relationship between ARI and the quantity of fuelwood from non-forest areas; a 100 kilogram increase in fuelwood sourced from a non-forest area results in a 2.4% increase in the incidence of ARI for children. We find the inverse effect of increased reliance on crop residues. As deforestation reduces the availability of high quality fuelwood, rural households may experience higher incidence of health problems associated with exposure to biomass burning. PMID:24535892

  1. Remote sensing of land use/cover changes and its effect on wind erosion potential in southern Iran.

    PubMed

    Rezaei, Mahrooz; Sameni, Abdolmajid; Fallah Shamsi, Seyed Rashid; Bartholomeus, Harm

    2016-01-01

    Wind erosion is a complex process influenced by different factors. Most of these factors are stable over time, but land use/cover and land management practices are changing gradually. Therefore, this research investigates the impact of changing land use/cover and land management on wind erosion potential in southern Iran. We used remote sensing data (Landsat ETM+ and Landsat 8 imagery of 2004 and 2013) for land use/cover mapping and employed the Iran Research Institute of Forest and Rangeland (IRIFR) method to estimate changes in wind erosion potential. For an optimal mapping, the performance of different classification algorithms and input layers was tested. The amount of changes in wind erosion and land use/cover were quantified using cross-tabulation between the two years. To discriminate land use/cover related to wind erosion, the best results were obtained by combining the original spectral bands with synthetic bands and using Maximum Likelihood classification algorithm (Kappa Coefficient of 0.8 and 0.9 for Landsat ETM+ and Landsat 8, respectively). The IRIFR modelling results indicate that the wind erosion potential has increased over the last decade. The areas with a very high sediment yield potential have increased, whereas the areas with a low, medium, and high sediment yield potential decreased. The area with a very low sediment yield potential have remained constant. When comparing the change in erosion potential with land use/cover change, it is evident that soil erosion potential has increased mostly in accordance with the increase of the area of agricultural practices. The conversion of rangeland to agricultural land was a major land-use change which lead to more agricultural practices and associated soil loss. Moreover, results indicate an increase in sandification in the study area which is also a clear evidence of increasing in soil erosion. PMID:27547511

  2. Remote sensing of land use/cover changes and its effect on wind erosion potential in southern Iran

    PubMed Central

    Sameni, Abdolmajid; Fallah Shamsi, Seyed Rashid; Bartholomeus, Harm

    2016-01-01

    Wind erosion is a complex process influenced by different factors. Most of these factors are stable over time, but land use/cover and land management practices are changing gradually. Therefore, this research investigates the impact of changing land use/cover and land management on wind erosion potential in southern Iran. We used remote sensing data (Landsat ETM+ and Landsat 8 imagery of 2004 and 2013) for land use/cover mapping and employed the Iran Research Institute of Forest and Rangeland (IRIFR) method to estimate changes in wind erosion potential. For an optimal mapping, the performance of different classification algorithms and input layers was tested. The amount of changes in wind erosion and land use/cover were quantified using cross-tabulation between the two years. To discriminate land use/cover related to wind erosion, the best results were obtained by combining the original spectral bands with synthetic bands and using Maximum Likelihood classification algorithm (Kappa Coefficient of 0.8 and 0.9 for Landsat ETM+ and Landsat 8, respectively). The IRIFR modelling results indicate that the wind erosion potential has increased over the last decade. The areas with a very high sediment yield potential have increased, whereas the areas with a low, medium, and high sediment yield potential decreased. The area with a very low sediment yield potential have remained constant. When comparing the change in erosion potential with land use/cover change, it is evident that soil erosion potential has increased mostly in accordance with the increase of the area of agricultural practices. The conversion of rangeland to agricultural land was a major land-use change which lead to more agricultural practices and associated soil loss. Moreover, results indicate an increase in sandification in the study area which is also a clear evidence of increasing in soil erosion. PMID:27547511

  3. Deriving a per-field land use and land cover map in an agricultural mosaic catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seo, B.; Bogner, C.; Poppenborg, P.; Martin, E.; Hoffmeister, M.; Jun, M.; Koellner, T.; Reineking, B.; Shope, C. L.; Tenhunen, J.

    2014-04-01

    Detailed data on land use and land cover constitutes important information for Earth system models, environmental monitoring and ecosystem services research. Global land cover products are evolving rapidly, however, there is still a lack of information particularly for heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. We censused land use and land cover field by field in an agricultural mosaic catchment Haean, South Korea. We recorded the land cover types with additional information on agricultural practice and make this data available at the public repository Pangaea (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.823677). In this paper we introduce the data, its collection and the post-processing protocol. During the studied period, a large portion of dry fields was converted to perennial crops. A comparison between our dataset and MODIS Land Cover Type (MCD12Q1) suggested that the MODIS product was restricted in this area since it does not distinguish irrigated fields from general croplands. In addition, linear landscape elements such as water bodies were not detected in the MODIS product due to its coarse spatial resolution. The data presented here can be useful for earth science and ecosystem services research.

  4. Impacts of Land Use Changes on Water Resources: Examples from Australia and China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, L.; Brown, A.; Zhang, X.

    2006-12-01

    Land use changes can significantly modify the hydrological regime of the catchments, affecting water resources and environment. This paper looks at the impacts of land use changes on water resources in both Australia and China and discusses the need for proper planning supported by scientific understanding. In Australia, massive clearing of native forest and woodland for agriculture since the European settlement has caused serious dryland salinity problem in many parts of the country. When deep-rooted perennial vegetation is replaced with agricultural crops, evapotranspiration decreases leading to increased groundwater recharge and streamflow. It has been suggested that by putting trees back to the landscape would reduce groundwater recharge and hence decrease salt load. Plantations can deliver positive hydrologic outcomes in terms of salinity control, but only if established appropriately. In China, extensive soil conservation measures including terraces, sediment-trapping dams, and afforestation have been implemented in catchments from the Loess Plateau since the 1950s. These measures have aimed to reduce soil erosion and improve agricultural productivity. While significant reductions in sediment yield from these catchments have been observed, it is at the cost of decreased streamflow. Analysis showed that on average the annual sediment yield from these catchments decreased by 51%, while reduction in annual stream flow varied between 20 to 45 % with greater reduction in low flows. The development of national plans to expand plantation area in the coming decades in both Australia and China mean that reductions in stream flow are likely. While there are clear environmental benefits associated with an expansion of plantation forestry, including decreased groundwater recharge, reduced erosion, improved water quality, and carbon sequestration, it is essential that proper planning and assessment of such land use changes is undertaken to minimize negative impacts on

  5. Relating United States crop land use to natural resources and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Flores-Mendoza, F.J.; Hubbard, K.G.

    1995-02-01

    Crop production depends not only on the yield but also on the area harvested. The yield response to climate change has been widely examined, but the sensitivity of crop land use to hypothetical climate change has not been examined directly. Crop land-use regression models for estimating crop area indices (CAIs)-the percent of land used for corn, soybean, wheat, and sorghum production-are presented. Inputs to the models include available water-holding capacity of the soil, percent of land available for rain-fed agricultural production, annual precipitation, and annual temperature. The total variance of CAI explained by the models ranged from 78% from wheat to 87% for sorghum, and the root-mean-square errors ranged from 1.74% for sorghum to 4.24% for corn. The introduction of additional climatic variables to the models did not significantly improve their performance. The crop land-use models were used to predict the CAI for every crop reporting district in the United States for the current climatic condition and for possible future climate change scenarios (various combinations of temperature and precipitation changes over a range of -3{degrees} to +6{degrees}C and -20% to +20% respectively). The magnitude of climatic warming suggested by GCMs (GISS and GFDL) is from 3.5{degrees} to 5.9{degrees}C for regions of the United States. For this magnitude of warming, the model suggests corn and soybean production areas may decline while wheat and sorghum production areas may expand. If the warming is accompanied by a decrease in annual precipitation from 1% to 10%, then the areas used for corn and soybean production could decrease by as much as 20% and 40%, respectively. The area for sorghum and wheat under these conditions would increase by as much as 80% and 70%, respectively; the exact amount depending strongly on the change in precipitation. 15 refs., 6 figs.

  6. Namibia specific climate smart agricultural land use practices: Challenges and opportunities for enhancing ecosystem services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuhn, Nikolaus J.; Talamondjila Naanda, Martha; Bloemertz, Lena

    2015-04-01

    Agriculture is a backbone for many African economies, with an estimated 70% of Africans active in agricultural production. The sector often does not only directly contribute to, but sustains food security and poverty reduction efforts. Sustaining this productivity poses many challenges, particularly to small scale subsistence farmers (SSF) in dry land areas and semi-arid countries like Namibia. SSF in northern central Namibia mix crop and livestock production on degraded semi-arid lands and nutrient-poor sandy soils. They are fully dependent on agricultural production with limited alternative sources of income. Mostly, their agricultural harvests and outputs are low, not meeting their livelihood needs. At the same time, the land use is often not sustainable, leading to degradation. The Namibia case reveals that addressing underlying economic, social and environmental challenges requires a combination of farm level-soil management practices with a shift towards integrated landscape management. This forms the basis for SSF to adopt sustainable land management practices while building institutional foundations, like establishing SSF cooperatives. One way in which this has been tested is through the concept of incentive-based motivation, i.e. payment for ecosystem services (PES), in which some of the beneficiaries pay, for instance for farmers or land users, who provide the services. The farmers provide these services by substituting their unsustainable land and soil management and adopting new (climate smart agricultural) land use practices. Climate Smart Agricultural land use practices (CSA-LUP) are one way of providing ecosystem services, which could be fundamental to long-term sustainable soil and land management solutions in Africa. There are few PES cases which have been systematically studied from an institutional development structure perspective. This study presents lessons evolving from the notion that direct participation and involvement of local people

  7. Changes in Stream Water Quality Related to Land Use and Watershed Scale in the Catskill Mountains of New York State

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McHale, M.

    2005-12-01

    watersheds, although not all agricultural watersheds had high nutrient concentrations. Since agriculture in this region typically consists of small, family-operated dairy farms, their influence on water quality is small. Base cations increased from upper nodes to lower nodes as did pH and acid neutralizing capacity, but these increases were not related to land use. Neither changes in flow nor change in basin size was correlated with the change in water chemistry from upper nodes to lower nodes. These results underscore the difficulty in trying to generalize the effect of land use on stream water quality in areas where there are not large variations in land use or when land use does not profoundly affect the landscape. Analysis of individual storms that occurred in all of the watersheds may provide additional insight into watershed responses during high flow.

  8. Runoff production in a small agricultural catchment in Lao PDR : influence of slope, land-use and observation scale.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patin, J.; Ribolzi, O.; Mugler, C.; Valentin, C.; Mouche, E.

    2009-04-01

    We study the surface and sub-surface hydrology of a small agricultural catchment (60ha) located in the Luang Prabang province of Lao PDR. This catchment is representative of the rural mountainous south east Asia. It exhibits steep slopes (up to 100% and more) under a monsoon climate. After years of traditional slash and burn cultures, it is now under high land pressures due to population resettling and environment preservation policies. This evolution leads to rapid land-use changes such as shifting cultivation reduction or growing of teak forest instead of classical crops. This catchment is a benchmark site of the Managing Soil Erosion Consortium since 1998. The international consortium aims to understand the effects of agricultural changes on the catchment hydrology and soil erosion in south east Asia. The Huay Pano catchment is subdivided into small sub-catchments that are gauged and monitored. Differ- ent agricultural practices where tested along the years. At a smaller scale, plot of 1m2 are instrumented to follow runoff and detachment of soil under natural rainfall along the monsoon season. Our modeling work aims to develop a distributed hydrological model integrating experimental data at the different scales. One of the objective is to understand the impact of land-use, soil properties (slope, crust, etc) and rainfall (dry and wet seasons) on surface and subsurface flows. We present here modeling results of the runoff plot experiments (1m2 scale) performed from 2002 to 2007. The plots distribution among the catchment and over the years gives a good representativity of the different runoff responses. The role of crust, slope and land-use on runoff is examined. Finally we discuss how this plot scale will be integrated in a sub-catchment model, with a particular attention on the observed paradox: how to explain that runoff coefficients at the catchment scale are much slower than at the plot scale ?

  9. High resolution scenarios of land-use and land-cover change for the conterminous United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T. L.; Bouchard, M. A.; Reker, R. R.; Sayler, K.; Sleeter, R.; Soulard, C. E.; Wilson, T. S.

    2012-12-01

    We describe a series of high resolution maps of past and projected changes in land use and land cover (LULC) for the conterminous United States for the period 1992 to 2100. Four scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used to create annual maps showing spatially explicit change in 15 LULC classes at a spatial resolution of 250 meters. A modular land-use modeling approach was utilized with distinct demand and spatial allocation components. To quantify demand for future LULC change (i.e. the quantity of changes in land use and land cover classes), a scenario downscaling model was developed to extend global scenarios from the IPCC to hierarchically nested ecoregions of the U.S. The Forecasting Scenarios (FORE-SCE) land use model was then employed to allocate scenario demand on the landscape. Both models were parameterized at the ecoregion scale and relied extensively on land use histories and expert knowledge. Results reveal large differences across IPCC-SRES scenarios. Scenarios prioritizing economic development over environmental protection result in the highest rates of LULC change, particularly in regions with extensive forest management, large urban areas, and/or large investments in agricultural land. Scenarios where environmental protection is emphasized result in slower rates of change and less intensity in regional land use patterns.

  10. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs. PMID:26429363

  11. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  12. Land Use Change Driven by Gold Mining; Peruvian Amazon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swenson, J. J.; Carter, C. E.; domec, J.; Delgado, C. I.

    2011-12-01

    Many factors such as poverty, ineffective institutions and environmental regulations may prevent developing countries from managing how natural resources are extracted to meet a strong market demand. Extraction for some resources has reached such proportions that evidence is measurable from space. We present recent evidence of the global demand for a single commodity and the ecosystem destruction resulting from commodity extraction, recorded by satellites for one of the most biodiverse areas of the world. We find that since 2003, recent mining deforestation in Madre de Dios, Peru is increasing nonlinearly alongside a constant annual rate of increase in international gold price (~18%/yr). We detect that the new pattern of mining deforestation (1915 ha/year, 2006-2009) is outpacing that of nearby settlement deforestation. We show that gold price is linked with exponential increases in Peruvian national mercury imports over time (R2 = 0.93, p = 0.04, 2003- 2009). Given the past rates of increase we predict that mercury imports may more than double for 2011 (~500 t/year). Virtually all of Peru's mercury imports are used in artisanal gold mining. Much of the mining increase is unregulated/ artisanal in nature, lacking environmental impact analysis or miner education. As a result, large quantities of mercury are being released into the atmosphere, sediments and waterways. Other developing countries endowed with gold deposits are likely experiencing similar environmental destruction in response to recent record high gold prices. The increasing availability of satellite imagery ought to evoke further studies linking economic variables with land use and cover changes on the ground.

  13. Urban Dynamics: Analyzing Land Use Change in Urban Environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Acevedo, William; Richards, Lora R.; Buchanan, Janis T.; Wegener, Whitney R.

    2000-01-01

    In FY99, the Earth Resource Observation System (EROS) staff at Ames continued managing the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Urban Dynamics Research program, which has mapping and analysis activities at five USGS mapping centers. Historic land use reconstruction work continued while activities in geographic analysis and modeling were expanded. Retrospective geographic information system (GIS) development - the spatial reconstruction of a region's urban land-use history - focused on the Detroit River Corridor, California's Central Valley, and the city of Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

  14. Bird populations in relation to changes in land use

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Warbach, O.

    1958-01-01

    Changes in breeding-bird populations on a 210-acre farm area were observed from 1947 to 1952. During this period, clearing, drainage, and planting changed the area from a partially abandoned farm with only 34 acres in cultivation to a modem conservation farm. Number of bird species nesting in the area was about 10 per cent lower in the last three years than in the first three years; number of nesting pairs declined about 40 per cent. The greatest decline was in species characteristic of brushy habitat; these were the most abundant birds on the area at the start of the study. For these species, approximately eight acres of planted hedges and field borders did not serve as an adequate substitute for 63 acres of brushy fields. Other birds were so limited in number during the breeding season that it is unsafe to conclude what effect agricultural practices had on their populations.

  15. Application of TABU Search Algorithm with a Coupled ANNAGNPS-CCHE1D Model to Optimize Agricultural Land Use

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A principal contributor to soil erosion and nonpoint source pollution, agricultural activities have a major influence on the environmental quality of a watershed. Impact of agricultural activities on the quality of water resources can be minimized by implementing suitable agriculture land-use types....

  16. Comparative study of heavy metals concentration in topsoil of urban green space and agricultural land uses.

    PubMed

    Mirzaei, Rouhollah; Teymourzade, Safiye; Sakizadeh, Mohamad; Ghorbani, Hadi

    2015-12-01

    The main objective of this study was to determine the concentration of cadmium, chromium, copper, nickel, lead, and zinc in surface soils of two land uses including agricultural and urban green space in Semnan Province, Iran. For this purpose, the soil samples of 27 urban green space and 47 agricultural fields were collected and analyzed. The correlation coefficients, analysis of variance, principal component analysis, cluster analysis, and geoaccumulation index were utilized to compare the mean values in the two land uses and pinpoint the possible sources of contamination in the study area. The average contents of Cd, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, and Zn in green space soils were 0.1, 24.9, 78.7, 28.2, 22.1, and 82.1 mg/kg, respectively, while the mean concentrations of Cd, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, and Zn in agricultural soils were 0.3, 24.3, 83.7, 33.3, 18.1, and 80.4 mg/kg, respectively. The mean concentrations of lead, copper, and zinc were higher in urban green space in comparison with those of agricultural fields, while it was vice versa for chromium, cadmium, and nickel. In general, significant, but weak, correlations were observed between Zn with Pb (r = 0.53) and Cu (r = 0.61) and Ni with Cr (r = 0.55) and Cu(r = 0.51). The main sources of contamination turned out to be both natural and anthropogenic as the results of correlation coefficients, principal component analysis, and cluster analysis showed. That is to say, chromium and nickel had emanated from natural while the sources of cadmium, lead, and zinc could be attributed to anthropogenic activities. For the case of copper, both natural and anthropogenic activities were influential; however, the role of human activities was more effective. The results of contamination assessment showed that heavy metal contamination in agricultural land use was higher than green space indicating the role of human activities in this respect. PMID:26559555

  17. Effects of climate and land use changes on groundwater resources in coastal aquifers.

    PubMed

    Priyantha Ranjan, S; Kazama, So; Sawamoto, Masaki

    2006-07-01

    To estimate the freshwater loss in coastal aquifers due to salinisation, a numerical model based on the sharp interface assumption has been introduced. The developed methodology will be useful in areas where limited hydrological data are available. This model will elaborate on the changes in fresh groundwater loss with respect to climate change, land use pattern and hydrologic soil condition. The aridity index has been introduced to represent the variations in precipitation and temperature. The interesting finding is that the deforestation leads to increase groundwater recharge in arid areas, because deforestation leads to reduce evapotranspiration even though it favors runoff. The combined climate and land use scenarios show that when the aridity index is less than 60, the agricultural lands give higher groundwater recharge than other land use patterns for all hydrologic soil conditions. The calculated recharge was then used to estimate the freshwater-saltwater interface and percentage of freshwater loss due to salinity intrusion. We found that in arid areas, the fresh groundwater loss increases as the percentage of forest cover increases. The combined effects of deforestation and aridity index on fresh groundwater loss show that deforestation causes an increase in the recharge and existing fresh groundwater resource in areas having low precipitation and high temperature (arid climates). PMID:16305816

  18. Fuel characteristics and emissions from biomass burning and land-use change in Nigeria.

    PubMed

    Isichei, A O; Muoghalu, J I; Akeredolu, F A; Afolabi, O A

    1995-01-01

    Nigeria is one of the 13 low-latitude countries that have significant biomass burning activities. Biomass burning occurs in moist savanna, dry forests, and forest plantations. Fires in the forest zone are associated with slash-and-burn agriculture; the areal extent of burning is estimated to be 80% of the natural savanna. In forest plantations, close to 100% of litter is burned. Current estimates of emissions from land-use change are based on a 1976 national study and extrapolations from it. The following non-carbon dioxide (CO2) trace gas emissions were calculated from savanna burning: methane (CH4), 145 gigagrams (Gg); carbon monoxide (CO), 3831 Gg; nitrous oxide (N2O), 2 Gg; and nitrogen oxides (NOx), 49 Gg. Deforestation rates in forests and woodlands are 300 × 10(3) ha (kilohectare, or kha) and 200 × kha per year, respectively. Trace gas emissions from deforestation were estimated to be 300 Gg CH4, 2.4 Gg N2O, and 24 Gg NOx. CO2 emissions from burning, decay of biomass, and long-term emissions from soil totaled 125 561 Gg. These estimates should be viewed as preliminary, because greenhouse gas emission inventories from burning, deforestation, and land-use change require two components: fuel load and emission factors. Fuel load is dependent on the areal extent of various land uses, and the biomass stocking and some of these data in Nigeria are highly uncertain. PMID:24197951

  19. Agricultural land-use mapping using very high resolution satellite images in Canary Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Labrador Garcia, Mauricio; Arbelo, Manuel; Evora Brondo, Juan Antonio; Hernandez-Leal, Pedro A.; Alonso-Benito, Alfonso

    Crop maps are a basic tool for rural planning and a way to asses the impact of politics and infrastructures in the rural environment. Thus, they must be accurate and updated. Because of the small size of the land fields in Canary Islands, until now the crop maps have been made by means of an intense and expensive field work. The tiny crop terraces do not allow the use of traditional medium-size resolution satellite images. The launch of several satellites with sub-meter spatial resolutions in the last years provides an opportunity to update land use maps in these fragmented areas. SATELMAC is a project financed by the PCT-MAC 2007-2013 (FEDER funds). One of the main objectives of this project is to develop a methodology that allows the use of very high resolution satellite images to automate as much as possible the updating of agricultural land use maps. The study was carried out in 3 different areas of the two main islands of the Canarian Archipelago, Tenerife and Gran Canaria. The total area is about 550 km2 , which includes both urban and rural areas. Multitemporal images from Geo-Eye 1 were acquired during a whole agricultural season to extract information about annual and perennial crops. The work includes a detailed geographic correction of the images and dealing with many adverse factors like cloud shadows, variability of atmospheric conditions and the heterogeneity of the land uses within the study area. Different classification methods, including traditional pixel-based methods and object-oriented approach, were compared in order to obtain the best accuracy. An intensive field work was carried out to obtain the ground truth, which is the base for the classification procedures and the validation of the results. The final results will be integrated into a cadastral vector layer.

  20. Impact of past and possible future land use changes on the hydrological behaviour of the Northern German lowland `Hunte' river

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bormann, H.; Elfert, S.

    2009-04-01

    Changing hydrological behaviour of catchments can be driven by several different influencing factors: e.g., climate change, water management and land use change. While changes in climate and water management directly affect the water cycle be changes in regional forcing (e.g., precipitation, radiation) and local management of surface and subsurface waters, the impact of land use changes on catchment hydrology is much more complex to assess as it results from regionally distributed local changes. Therefore, spatially distributed and process based hydrological catchment models are required for assessing the impacts of spatially distributed land use changes. The Hunte catchment in Lower Saxony is part of an intensively agriculturally used landscape in Northwest Germany. Pasture and cropland are dominating land uses, while surface sealing increases due to urban sprawl. As the catchment is dominated by agricultural landuse mostly, it can be expected that European and national policy as well as the agroeconomic development can strongly effect the land use distribution in future. Therefore, in this study, the effect of historical and projected land use changes on the catchment hydrological behaviour is assessed the process based catchment model WASIM-ETH (Schulla). WASIM-ETH has been applied to observed land use data sets (CORINE data) and projected land use scenarios (based on Ewert et al., 2005; Rounsevell et al., 2005) for the mesoscale catchment of the Hunte river in order to quantify the sensitivity with respect to land use change. The results of the study show that historical land use changes have almost no impact on the catchment hydrological processes in Northwest Germany. Simulated water balances and runoff hydrographs are almost identical, driving the model with different input data sets based on the CORINE data set. Differences are small compared to trends identified in the discharge data of the Hunte and Weser rivers. However, in relation to the ability of

  1. Tracking changes in land-use and drainage status of organic soils using heterogeneous spatial datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Untenecker, Johanna; Tiemeyer, Bärbel; Freibauer, Annette; Laggner, Andreas; Luterbacher, Jürg

    2016-04-01

    Tracking land-use since 1990 is one of the major challenges in greenhouse gas (GHG) reporting under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol, as the data availability, especially for the base year 1990, is often poor. Even if data is available, spatial and thematic resolution will often change over time or differ even within one country. Such inconsistencies will cause a strong overestimation of land use change (LUC) if not adequately accounted for. Using different spatial datasets, we present a method that allows tracking changes in land-use and drainage status of organic soils. The drainage status is relevant for the Kyoto activities grazing land management (GM) and wetland drainage and rewetting (WDR) as the GHG emissions of organic soils strongly depend on the groundwater level. We used datasets that are already used for the German national inventory report (Digital Landscape Model of official cadastre data) and high resolution spatial datasets (CIR aerial photography) derived for biodiversity monitoring of six federal states in North and East Germany. This data is combined with the legal protection status such as nature conservation areas. To create a consistent time series, we developed a translation key which allows quantifying gross and net LUC in a spatially explicit manner. The developed method fills the lack of data for 1990 and allows GHG accounting on higher Tier levels as soon as detailed emission factors are ready to be implemented. LUC can be stratified by the protection status. Areas without a protection status show a trend towards both intensification of land-use and drier conditions. Highly protected areas show an opposite trend while a moderate protection level (e.g. by nature parks) did only have very weak effects. Furthermore, there are major differences between federal states. In Schleswig-Holstein, known as a federal state of high agricultural production, organic soils tend to become drier and

  2. Importance of land use update during the calibration period and simulation of water balance response to land use change in the upper Rio das Mortes Catchment (Cerrado Biome, Central-Western Brazil)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamparter, Gabriele; Kovacs, Kristof; Nobrega, Rodolfo; Gerold, Gerhard

    2015-04-01

    Changes in the hydrological balance and following degradation of the water ecosystem services due to large scale land use changes are reported from agricultural frontiers all over the world. Traditionally, hydrological models including vegetation and land use as a part of the hydrological cycle use a fixed distribution of land use for the calibration period. We believe that a meaningful calibration - especially when investigating the effects of land use change on hydrology - demands the inclusion of land use change during the calibration period into the calibration procedure. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model is a process-based, semi-distributed model calculating the different components of the water balance. The model bases on the definition of hydrological response units (HRUs) which are based on soil, vegetation and slope distribution. It specifically emphasises the role of land use and land management on the water balance. The Central-Western region of Brazil is one of the leading agricultural frontiers, which experienced rapid and radical deforestation and agricultural intensification in the last 40 years (from natural Cerrado savannah to cattle grazing to intensive corn and soya cropland). The land use history of the upper Rio das Mortes catchment (with 17500 km²) is reasonably well documented since the 1970th. At the same time there are almost continuous climate and runoff data available for the period between 1988 and 2011. Therefore, the work presented here shows the model calibration and validation of the SWAT model with the land use update function for three different periods (1988 to 1998, 1998 to 2007 and 2007 to 2011) in comparison with the same calibration periods using a steady state land use distribution. The use of the land use update function allows a clearer identification which changes in the discharge are due to climatic variability and which are due to changes in the vegetation cover. With land use update included into the

  3. Impact of Past Land Use Changes on Drinking Water Quantity and Quality in Ljubljana Aquifer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bracic Zeleznik, Branka; Cencur Curk, Barbara

    2010-05-01

    Most of the practical problems that we face today with the on-site management of drinking water sources and distribution of healthy drinking water, originate from past actions, interventions and political decisions. In Ljubljana, the capital of the Republic of Slovenia, underlying groundwater is the main drinking water source. The main threat to drinking water sources is constant input of pollutant loads from roads, roofs, sewers, industry and agricultural areas. The main problems are directly and indirectly related to the significant decrease of groundwater level and deterioration of groundwater quality observed in the last decades as an effect of land use practices under varying climate conditions. The Vodovod-Kanalizacija Public Utility is responsible for water supply of the city residents as well as for management of the water supply system, its surveillance and maintenance. In the past, the Ljubljana Municipality was responsible for the protection of water resources and the first delineation of groundwater protection areas was issued in Decree in 1955. In 2004 a Decree on the water protection zones for the aquifer of Ljubljansko polje on the state level was issued and passed the competences of proclamation of the water protection zones to the state. Spatial planning is a domain of The Municipality and land use is limited according to water protection legislation. For several observation wells long-time data sets about groundwater levels and quality are available, which enable us to analyse changes in groundwater quantity and quality parameters. From the data it is obvious that climate variations are affecting groundwater recharge. In addition, changing of land use affects groundwater quality. In spite of the Decree on the water protection there is a heavy pressure of investors to change land use plans and regulations on protection zones, which causes every day problems in managing the drinking water source. Groundwater management in Ljubljana demands strong

  4. The Biogeophysical Climatic Impacts of Anthropogenic Land Use Change during the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Clare; Singarayer, Joy; Valdes, Paul; Kaplan, Jed; Branch, Nicholas

    2016-04-01

    The first agricultural societies were established around 10ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with HadCM3 were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP) to the early industrial era (1850 CE). Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation simulated by TRIFFID but no land-use changes, and (ii) where the anthropogenic land use model, KK10 (Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011*) has been used to set the HadCM3 crop regions. Snapshot simulations have been run at 1,000 year intervals to examine when the first signature of anthropogenic climate change can be detected both regionally, in the areas of land use change, and globally. Results indicate that in regions of early land disturbance such as Europe and S.E. Asia detectable temperature changes, outside the normal range of variability, are encountered in the model as early as 7ka BP in the June/July/August (JJA) season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2-3ka BP. Areas outside the regions of land disturbance are also affected, with virtually the whole globe experiencing significant temperature changes (predominantly cooling) by the early industrial period. Large-scale precipitation features such as the Indian monsoon, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and the North Atlantic storm track are also impacted by local land use and remote teleconnections. We investigated how advection by surface winds, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies

  5. Applying IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) land-use projections in a regional assessment of land-use change in the conterminous United States.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sherba, J.; Sleeter, B. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) include global land-use change projections for four global emissions scenarios. These projections are potentially useful for driving regional-scale models needed for informing land-use and management interactions. Here, we applied global gridded RCP land-use projections within a regional-scale state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) projecting land-use change in the conterminous United States. First, we cross-walked RCP land-use transition classes to land-use classes more relevant for modeling at the regional scale. Coarse grid RCP land-use transition values were then downscaled to EPA Level III ecoregion boundaries using historical land-use transition data from the USGS Land Cover Trends (LCT) dataset. Downscaled transitions were aggregated to the ecoregion level. Ecoregions were chosen because they represent areas with consistent land-use patterns that have proven useful for studying land-use and management interactions. Ecoregion-level RCP projections were applied in a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) projecting land-use change between 2005 and 2100 at the 1-km scale. Resulting RCP-based STSM projections were compared to STSM projections created using scenario projections from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and the USGS LCT dataset. While most land-use trajectories appear plausible, some transitions such as forest harvest are unreasonable in the context of historical land-use patterns and the socio-economic drivers of change outlined for each scenario. This effort provides a method for using the RCP land-use projections in a wide range of regional scale models. However, further investigation is needed into the performance of RCP land-use projections at the regional scale.

  6. Integrated Assessment and the Relation Between Land-Use Change and Climate Change

    DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

    Dale, V. H.

    1994-10-07

    Integrated assessment is an approach that is useful in evaluating the consequences of global climate change. Understanding the consequences requires knowledge of the relationship between land-use change and climate change. Methodologies for assessing the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations are considered with reference to a particular case study area: south and southeast Asia. The use of models to evaluate the consequences of climate change on forests must also consider an assessment approach. Each of these points is discussed in the following four sections.

  7. Assessing the impacts of combined climate and land use changes for water availability and demands in a Mediterranean watershed.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacinto, Rita; Nunes, João Pedro; Santos, Juliana

    2014-05-01

    Mediterranean basins experience water scarcity issues due to the dry climate associated with the need for agricultural irrigation and recurrent severe drought episodes. Recent land use changes have increased the pressure over water resources due to an expansion of irrigation. Global climate change is expected to bring forth a drier climate, which may simultaneously lead to higher irrigation demands and less water to sustain them, which would be a great management challenge. The issues surrounding climate and associated land use changes were addressed for the Xarrama basin in southern Portugal. This is a region where there is already a large amount of irrigation, mostly consisting of corn and rice fields, but recent trends point to an increase of drip-irrigation in olives and vineyards. The water management strategies for this region assume water transfers from the larger Alqueva reservoir, without taking into account the impacts of these future changes which might introduce additional evapotranspiration losses while decreasing the amount of available water both in Xarrama and Alqueva. Future climate and land-use scenarios were downscaled to the basin level, the latter taking into account local land-use change trends in recent decades. Downscaling based on local tendencies allowed detailed land use changes for agriculture and forest (the main land uses for this region), i.e. the most likely types of crops and trees to be introduced or replaced. The results of local tendencies scenarios reflect the SRES tendencies for Europe, namely agricultural abandonment and increased biofuel production, with species adapted to this climatic region. These scenarios are the first for this region with highly detailed information about land use change scenarios under climate change. The SWAT eco-hydrological model is being applied to quantify the individual impact of climate and land-use change scenarios on both water availability and demands, and the synergies between both. This

  8. Dynamics of land use and land cover change (LULCC) using geospatial techniques: a case study of Islamabad Pakistan.

    PubMed

    Hassan, Zahra; Shabbir, Rabia; Ahmad, Sheikh Saeed; Malik, Amir Haider; Aziz, Neelam; Butt, Amna; Erum, Summra

    2016-01-01

    One of the detailed and useful ways to develop land use classification maps is use of geospatial techniques such as remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS). It vastly improves the selection of areas designated as agricultural, industrial and/or urban sector of a region. In Islamabad city and its surroundings, change in land use has been observed and new developments (agriculture, commercial, industrial and urban) are emerging every day. Thus, the rationale of this study was to evaluate land use/cover changes in Islamabad from 1992 to 2012. Quantification of spatial and temporal dynamics of land use/cover changes was accomplished by using two satellite images, and classifying them via supervised classification algorithm and finally applying post-classification change detection technique in GIS. The increase was observed in agricultural area, built-up area and water body from 1992 to 2012. On the other hand forest and barren area followed a declining trend. The driving force behind this change was economic development, climate change and population growth. Rapid urbanization and deforestation resulted in a wide range of environmental impacts, including degraded habitat quality. PMID:27390652

  9. The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, M. C.; Singarayer, J. S.; Valdes, P. J.; Kaplan, J. O.; Branch, N. P.

    2015-10-01

    The first agricultural societies were established around 10 ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5 ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with HadCM3 were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP) to the early industrial era (1850 CE). Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation simulated by TRIFFID but no land-use changes, and (ii) where the anthropogenic land use model, KK10 (Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011) has been used to set the HadCM3 crop regions. Snapshot simulations have been run at 1000 year intervals to examine when the first signature of anthropogenic climate change can be detected both regionally, in the areas of land use change, and globally. Results indicate that in regions of early land disturbance such as Europe and S.E. Asia detectable temperature changes, outside the normal range of variability, are encountered in the model as early as 7 ka BP in the June/July/August (JJA) season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2-3 ka BP. Areas outside the regions of land disturbance are also affected, with virtually the whole globe experiencing significant temperature changes (predominantly cooling) by the early industrial period. Large-scale precipitation features such as the Indian monsoon, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and the North Atlantic storm track are also impacted by local land use and remote teleconnections. We investigated how advection by surface winds, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies

  10. Biofuels, causes of land-use change, and the role of fire in greenhouse gas emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Kline, Keith L; Dale, Virginia H

    2008-07-01

    IN THEIR REPORTS IN THE 29 FEBRUARY ISSUE ('LAND CLEARING AND THE BIOFUEL CARBON debt,' J. Fargione et al., p. 1235, and 'Use of U.S. croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change,' T. Searchinger et al., p. 1238), the authors do not provide adequate support for their claim that biofuels cause high emissions due to land-use change. The conclusions of both papers depend on the misleading premise that biofuel production causes forests and grasslands to be converted to agriculture. However, field research, including a meta-analysis of 152 case studies, consistently finds that land-use change and associated carbon emissions are driven by interactions among cultural, technological, biophysical, political, economic, and demographic forces within a spatial and temporal context rather than by a single crop market. Searchinger et al. assert that soybean prices accelerate clearing of rainforest based on a single citation for a study not designed to identify the causal factors of land clearing. The study analyzed satellite imagery from a single state in Brazil over a 4-year period and focused on land classification after deforestation. Satellite imagery can measure what changed but does little to tell us why. Similarly, Fargione et al. do not rely on primary empirical studies of causes of land-use change. Furthermore, neither fire nor soil carbon sequestration was properly considered in the Reports. Fire's escalating contribution to global climate change is largely a result of burning in tropical savannas and forests. Searchinger et al. postulate that 10.8 million hectares could be needed for future biofuel, a fraction of the 250 to 400 million hectares burned each year between 2000 and 2005. By offering enhanced employment and incomes, biofuels can help establish economic stability and thus reduce the recurring use of fire on previously cleared land as well as pressures to clear more land. Neither Searchinger et al. nor Fargione et

  11. Carbon cycling under 300 years of land use change: importance of the secondary vegetation sink

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shevliakova, Elena; Pacala, Stephen W.; Malyshev, Sergey; Hurtt, George C.; Milly, P.C.D.; Caspersen, John P.; Sentman, Lori T.; Fisk, Justin P.; Wirth, Christian; Crevoisier, Cyril

    2009-01-01

    We have developed a dynamic land model (LM3V) able to simulate ecosystem dynamics and exchanges of water, energy, and CO2 between land and atmosphere. LM3V is specifically designed to address the consequences of land use and land management changes including cropland and pasture dynamics, shifting cultivation, logging, fire, and resulting patterns of secondary regrowth. Here we analyze the behavior of LM3V, forced with the output from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) atmospheric model AM2, observed precipitation data, and four historic scenarios of land use change for 1700-2000. Our analysis suggests a net terrestrial carbon source due to land use activities from 1.1 to 1.3 GtC/a during the 1990s, where the range is due to the difference in the historic cropland distribution. This magnitude is substantially smaller than previous estimates from other models, largely due to our estimates of a secondary vegetation sink of 0.35 to 0.6 GtC/a in the 1990s and decelerating agricultural land clearing since the 1960s. For the 1990s, our estimates for the pastures' carbon flux vary from a source of 0.37 to a sink of 0.15 GtC/a, and for the croplands our model shows a carbon source of 0.6 to 0.9 GtC/a. Our process-based model suggests a smaller net deforestation source than earlier bookkeeping models because it accounts for decelerated net conversion of primary forest to agriculture and for stronger secondary vegetation regrowth in tropical regions. The overall uncertainty is likely to be higher than the range reported here because of uncertainty in the biomass recovery under changing ambient conditions, including atmospheric CO2 concentration, nutrients availability, and climate. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  12. Trends in future N₂O emissions due to land use change.

    PubMed

    Nol, Linda; Verburg, Peter H; Moors, Eddy J

    2012-02-01

    Better insight in the possible range of future N₂O emissions can help to construct mitigation and adaptation strategies and to adapt land use planning and management to climate objectives. The Dutch fen meadow landscape is a hotspot of N₂O emission due to high nitrogen inputs combined with moist peat soils due to land use change. Socio-economic developments in the area are expected to have major impacts on N₂O emission. The goals of this study are to estimate changes in N₂O emissions for the period 2006-2040 under three different scenarios for the Dutch fen meadow landscape (rural production, rural fragmentation, and rural multifunctionality) and to quantify the share of different emission sources. Three scenarios were constructed and quantified based on the Story-And-Simulation approach. The rural production and the rural fragmentation scenarios are characterized by globalization and a market-oriented economy; in the rural production scenario dairy farming has a strong competitive position in the study region, while under the rural fragmentation scenario agriculture is declining. Under the rural multifunctionality scenario, the global context is characterized by regionalization and stronger regulation toward environmental issues. The N₂O emission decreased between 2006 and 2040 under all scenarios. Under the rural production scenario, the N₂O emission decreased by 7%. Due to measures to limit peat mineralization and policies to reduce agricultural emissions, the rural multifunctionality scenario showed the largest decrease in N₂O emissions (44%). Under the rural fragmentation scenario, in which the dairy farming sector is diminished, the emission decreased by 33%. Compared to other uncertainties involved in N₂O emission estimates, the uncertainty due to possible future land use change is relatively large and assuming a constant emission with time is therefore not appropriate. PMID:21940095

  13. Structure, composition and metagenomic profile of soil microbiomes associated to agricultural land use and tillage systems in Argentine Pampas.

    PubMed

    Carbonetto, Belén; Rascovan, Nicolás; Álvarez, Roberto; Mentaberry, Alejandro; Vázquez, Martin P

    2014-01-01

    Agriculture is facing a major challenge nowadays: to increase crop production for food and energy while preserving ecosystem functioning and soil quality. Argentine Pampas is one of the main world producers of crops and one of the main adopters of conservation agriculture. Changes in soil chemical and physical properties of Pampas soils due to different tillage systems have been deeply studied. Still, not much evidence has been reported on the effects of agricultural practices on Pampas soil microbiomes. The aim of our study was to investigate the effects of agricultural land use on community structure, composition and metabolic profiles on soil microbiomes of Argentine Pampas. We also compared the effects associated to conventional practices with the effects of no-tillage systems. Our results confirmed the impact on microbiome structure and composition due to agricultural practices. The phyla Verrucomicrobia, Plactomycetes, Actinobacteria, and Chloroflexi were more abundant in non cultivated soils while Gemmatimonadetes, Nitrospirae and WS3 were more abundant in cultivated soils. Effects on metabolic metagenomic profiles were also observed. The relative abundance of genes assigned to transcription, protein modification, nucleotide transport and metabolism, wall and membrane biogenesis and intracellular trafficking and secretion were higher in cultivated fertilized soils than in non cultivated soils. We also observed significant differences in microbiome structure and taxonomic composition between soils under conventional and no-tillage systems. Overall, our results suggest that agronomical land use and the type of tillage system have induced microbiomes to shift their life-history strategies. Microbiomes of cultivated fertilized soils (i.e. higher nutrient amendment) presented tendencies to copiotrophy while microbiomes of non cultivated homogenous soils appeared to have a more oligotrophic life-style. Additionally, we propose that conventional tillage systems may

  14. Structure, Composition and Metagenomic Profile of Soil Microbiomes Associated to Agricultural Land Use and Tillage Systems in Argentine Pampas

    PubMed Central

    Carbonetto, Belén; Rascovan, Nicolás; Álvarez, Roberto; Mentaberry, Alejandro; Vázquez, Martin P.

    2014-01-01

    Agriculture is facing a major challenge nowadays: to increase crop production for food and energy while preserving ecosystem functioning and soil quality. Argentine Pampas is one of the main world producers of crops and one of the main adopters of conservation agriculture. Changes in soil chemical and physical properties of Pampas soils due to different tillage systems have been deeply studied. Still, not much evidence has been reported on the effects of agricultural practices on Pampas soil microbiomes. The aim of our study was to investigate the effects of agricultural land use on community structure, composition and metabolic profiles on soil microbiomes of Argentine Pampas. We also compared the effects associated to conventional practices with the effects of no-tillage systems. Our results confirmed the impact on microbiome structure and composition due to agricultural practices. The phyla Verrucomicrobia, Plactomycetes, Actinobacteria, and Chloroflexi were more abundant in non cultivated soils while Gemmatimonadetes, Nitrospirae and WS3 were more abundant in cultivated soils. Effects on metabolic metagenomic profiles were also observed. The relative abundance of genes assigned to transcription, protein modification, nucleotide transport and metabolism, wall and membrane biogenesis and intracellular trafficking and secretion were higher in cultivated fertilized soils than in non cultivated soils. We also observed significant differences in microbiome structure and taxonomic composition between soils under conventional and no- tillage systems. Overall, our results suggest that agronomical land use and the type of tillage system have induced microbiomes to shift their life-history strategies. Microbiomes of cultivated fertilized soils (i.e. higher nutrient amendment) presented tendencies to copiotrophy while microbiomes of non cultivated homogenous soils appeared to have a more oligotrophic life-style. Additionally, we propose that conventional tillage systems

  15. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Breuer, L.; Huisman, J. A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B. F. W.; Frede, H.-G.; Gräff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A. J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Lindström, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N. R.

    2009-02-01

    This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

  16. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Breuer, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

  17. Sensitivity of simulated hydrological fluxes towards changes in soil properties in response to land use change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huisman, J. A.; Breuer, L.; Frede, H.-G.

    Current model studies on the impact of land use change on water resources often simulate changes in land use without considering changes in the soil properties due to the change in land use. In this study, an artificial study catchment representing the Dill catchment (Germany) was used within the eco-hydrological model SWAT-G to study the sensitivity of SWAT-G simulations towards changes in soil properties during land use change. Since there is little information on these soil-vegetation interactions, we performed a model sensitivity study to investigate the impact of changes in the depth of the top soil layer, bulk density, saturated hydraulic conductivity and available water content on several simulated hydrological fluxes. To assess the significance of the simulated changes due to the changing soil properties, we compared the model sensitivity with the uncertainty in the hydrological fluxes due to the uncertainty in the parameterization of the plant parameters. The results showed that the changes in soil properties due to a land use transition from cropland to pasture only have a minor impact on the simulated mean annual, summer and winter runoff and actual evapotranspiration. Soil-vegetation interactions have a stronger impact on the simulated mean surface runoff, although the absolute contribution of this flux is small in our conceptualization of the Dill catchment. A comparison of the sensitivity and uncertainty of the simulated hydrological fluxes led to the conclusion that changes in soil properties due to land use change are relatively unimportant in our model of the Dill catchment in the light of the low sensitivity of the dominating hydrological fluxes and the large output uncertainty due to the plant parameter uncertainty.

  18. Looking back to move forward on model validation: insights from a global model of agricultural land use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Hertel, Thomas W.

    2013-09-01

    Global agricultural models are becoming indispensable in the debate over climate change impacts and mitigation policies. Therefore, it is becoming increasingly important to validate these models and identify critical areas for improvement. In this letter, we illustrate both the opportunities and the challenges in undertaking such model validation, using the SIMPLE model of global agriculture. We look back at the long run historical period 1961-2006 and, using a few key historical drivers—population, incomes and total factor productivity—we find that SIMPLE is able to accurately reproduce historical changes in cropland use, crop price, crop production and average crop yields at the global scale. Equally important is our investigation into how the specific assumptions embedded in many agricultural models will likely influence these results. We find that those global models which are largely biophysical—thereby ignoring the price responsiveness of demand and supply—are likely to understate changes in crop production, while failing to capture the changes in cropland use and crop price. Likewise, global models which incorporate economic responses, but do so based on limited time series estimates of these responses, are likely to understate land use change and overstate price changes.

  19. Monitoring population and land use change in tropical forest protected areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zvoleff, A. I.; Rosa, M.; Ahumada, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    Monitoring human-environment interactions in tropical forest protected areas requires linking interdisciplinary datasets collected across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Recent assessments have shown that forest degradation and loss outside of protected areas is strongly associated with declines in biodiversity within protected areas. Biodiversity monitoring efforts must therefore develop approaches that consider change in the broader landscape, using biophysical and socioeconomic datasets that not only cover the extent of a protected area, but also the region surrounding it. The Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network has developed an approach for linking remotely sensed imagery from Landsat and MODIS sensors with in-situ ecological data and socioeconomic datasets to better understand the effects of landscape change on biodiversity. The TEAM Network is a global system for monitoring biodiversity, land use/cover change (LUCC), and climate in sixteen tropical forest sites evenly distributed across global biophysical gradients (rainfall and seasonality) and gradients of expected climate change and land use change. TEAM adopts the Zone of Interaction (ZOI) concept to delineate the spatial extent around protected areas for linking broader-scale trends in LUCC to plot-based monitoring data. This talk reports on a cross-site comparison examining LUCC and biodiversity change across the TEAM network. The analysis indicates a gradient of forest loss in the tropics dependent on landscape-level human factors, such as population and road density. The highest losses of forest cover are associated with changing patterns of land use and agricultural development, particularly plantation forestry in Southeast Asia. While the spatial and temporal resolution of remote sensing-derived datasets continues to increase, a key challenge for monitoring efforts is linking this data to spatially explicit socioeconomic datasets for use in statistical modeling. We will

  20. Assessing land use and cover change effects on hydrological response in the river C

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nunes, A.

    2009-04-01

    Assessing the impacts of land use change, especially the role of vegetation, on hydrological response from the plot to the catchment scale has become one of the widespread issues of scientific concern,in recent decades. The continuous expansion of urban areas, the dramatic changes in land-cover and land-use patterns and the climate change which have taken place on a global scale explain this increasing interest. Although scientists have long recognized that changes in land use and land cover are important factors affecting water circulation and the spatial-temporal variations in the distribution of water resources, little is known about the quantitative relation between land use/coverage characteristics and runoff generation or processes. Therefore, a better understanding of how land-use changes impact watershed hydrological processes will become a crucial issue for the planning, management, and sustainable development of water resources. In the past decades, abandonment of marginal agricultural land has been a widespread phenomenon in Portugal, as well as in many other countries of Europe, especially in the Mediterranean countries. The abandonment of arable land typically leads to natural succession and to the development of shrub and woodland. Shrubs like Cytisus spp.usually establish in study area. A Quercus pyrenaica Willd. wood generally appears after a long time, about 3 or 4 decades. The general aim of this work is to analyse the temporal evolution of water supplies in a Côa basins (located between 41°00'' N and 40°15'' N and 7°15'' W and 6°55'' W Greenwich)and relate its behaviour with changes undergone by the plant cover and by the main climatic variables (temperatures and precipitation). To achieve this goal, dynamics on the land use and land cover were estimated after the second half of the 20th century. The hydrological response under different land uses and plant covers were monitored during 2005 and 2006, using small permanently establish bounded

  1. Determination of the Impact of Urbanization on Agricultural Lands using Multi-temporal Satellite Sensor Images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaya, S.; Alganci, U.; Sertel, E.; Ustundag, B.

    2015-12-01

    Throughout the history, agricultural activities have been performed close to urban areas. Main reason behind this phenomenon is the need of fast marketing of the agricultural production to urban residents and financial provision. Thus, using the areas nearby cities for agricultural activities brings out advantage of easy transportation of productions and fast marketing. For decades, heavy migration to cities has directly and negatively affected natural grasslands, forests and agricultural lands. This pressure has caused agricultural lands to be changed into urban areas. Dense urbanization causes increase in impervious surfaces, heat islands and many other problems in addition to destruction of agricultural lands. Considering the negative impacts of urbanization on agricultural lands and natural resources, a periodic monitoring of these changes becomes indisputably important. At this point, satellite images are known to be good data sources for land cover / use change monitoring with their fast data acquisition, large area coverages and temporal resolution properties. Classification of the satellite images provides thematic the land cover / use maps of the earth surface and changes can be determined with GIS based analysis multi-temporal maps. In this study, effects of heavy urbanization over agricultural lands in Istanbul, metropolitan city of Turkey, were investigated with use of multi-temporal Landsat TM satellite images acquired between 1984 and 2011. Images were geometrically registered to each other and classified using supervised maximum likelihood classification algorithm. Resulting thematic maps were exported to GIS environment and destructed agricultural lands by urbanization were determined using spatial analysis.

  2. Changing Land Use to Offset CO2 Emissions: Limited Potential for the Upper Midwest of the U.S.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fissore, C.; Espelata, J. F.; Nater, E. A.; Hobbie, S. E.; Reich, P. B.

    2008-12-01

    Efforts to mitigate increasing carbon (C) emissions are needed, and increasingly more policies point at terrestrial ecosystems as places to sequester atmospheric CO2. Whether terrestrial C sequestration can offset significant CO2 emissions is questionable, particularly in light of (1) increasing pressures on land use from an array of competing sectors including food and biofuel production and urbanization, and (2) a growing concern among scientists that previously published rates of C sequestration attributed to the conversion from conventional tillage to no-till or conservation tillage were overly optimistic. We analyzed the potential to promote terrestrial C sequestration through changes in land use and land cover in the Upper Midwest of the U.S. over a 50-year timeframe based on available data. Although some land use and cover changes, such as restoring forests, grasslands and wetlands, cause substantial carbon storage for a given area of land, conversion of even 10% of the regions agricultural land would offset only a few percent of its carbon emissions. Conversion to no-till agricultural, although popular among policymakers, results in variable and, on average, negligible C sequestration (sequestration rates range from -0.2 to 0.8 Mg C ha-1 y-1). Despite the unquestionable ecological benefits of some of the proposed land use changes, land use change realistically can be only a modest part of a more comprehensive strategy to achieve significant emissions reductions.

  3. Legacies of Land Use Trajectories on Belowground Dynamics in Post-agricultural Tropical Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atkinson, E. E.; Marin-Spiotta, E.

    2012-12-01

    layer microbial community structure differed from all successional forest sites. Furthermore, we show strong differences in the soil microbial community with depth. In older forests that rapidly regenerated to secondary forest without an intermediate land use (i.e. tree plantation or high intensity pasture), we found increased extracellular enzyme activity in the forest floor, particularly for enzymes involved in the breakdown of cellulose, hemi-cellulose, and soluble saccharides. Pasture soils showed higher extracellular enzyme activity at the surface depth than the secondary forests. Since enzymes are directly linked to the turnover rates of different organic functional groups in soils, there is great potential for differences in enzyme activity to alter pathways of formation and stabilization of SOM. The next step in our research is to compare SOM chemistry and turnover for the different successional trajectories. We are installing long-term leaf litter, root, and soil transplant experiments between the younger secondary forests dominated by 1-2 exotic species and the older, more diverse secondary forests. From this research we expect to link microbial community structure and function with distinct forms of SOM, and thus determine whether changes in function create distinct SOM stabilization pathways.

  4. Landscape-scale modelling of soil carbon dynamics under land use and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lacoste, Marine; Viaud, Valérie; Michot, Didier; Christian, Walter

    2013-04-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration is highly linked to soil use and farming practices, but also to soil redistributions, soil properties, and climate. In a global change context, landscape, farming practice and climate changes are expected; and they will most probably impact SOC dynamics. To assess their respective impacts, we modelled the SOC contents and stocks evolution at the scale of an agricultural landscape, by taking into account the soil redistribution by tillage and water processes. The simulations were conducted from 2010 to 2100 under different scenarios of landscape and climate. These scenarios combined different land uses associated to specific farming practices (mixed dairy with rotations of crops and grasslands, intensive cropping with only crops rotations or permanent grasslands), landscape managements (hedges planting or removal), and climates (business-as-usual climate and climate change, with temperature and precipitations increase). We used a spatially SOC dynamic model (adapted from RothC), coupled to a soil redistribution model (LandSoil). SOC dynamics were spatially modelled with a lateral resolution of 2-m and for soil organic layers up to 105 cm. Initial SOC stocks were described with a 2-m resolution map based on field data and produced with digital soil mapping methods. The major factor of change in SOC stocks was land use change, the second factor of importance was climate change, and finally landscape management: for the total SOC stocks (0-to-105 cm soil layer) the change of land use, climate and landscape management induced a respective mean absolute variation of 10 to 20 tC ha-1, 9 tC ha-1 and 0.4 tC ha-1. When considering the 0-to-105 cm soil layer, the different modelled landscapes showed the same sensitivity to climate change, with induced a mean decrease of 10 tC ha-1. However, the impact of climate change was found different according to the different modelled landscape when considering the 0-to-7.5 and 0-to-30 cm soil

  5. Increasing land use drives changes in plant phylogenetic diversity and prevalence of specialists.

    PubMed

    Villalobos, Soraya; Vamosi, Jana C

    2016-01-01

    Increased human land use has resulted in the increased homogenization of biodiversity between sites, yet we lack sufficient indicators to predict which species decline and the consequence of their potential loss on ecosystem services. We used comparative phylogenetic analysis to (1) characterize how increasing conversion of forest and grasslands to grazing pasturelands changes plant diversity and composition; (2) examine how changes in land use relate to declines in functional trait diversity; and (3) specifically investigate how these changes in plant composition affect the prevalence of zygomorphy and the possible consequences that these changes may have on pollinator functional groups. As predicted, we found that the conversion to grazing pasturelands negatively impacted species richness and phylogenetic composition. Clades with significantly more represented taxa in grasslands (GL) were genera with a high representation of agricultural weeds, while the composition was biased towards clades of subalpine herbaceous wildflowers in Mixed Forest (MF). Changes in community composition and structure had strong effects on the prevalence of zygomorphic species likely driven by nitrogen-fixing abilities of certain clades with zygomorphic flowers (e.g., Fabaceae). Land conversion can thus have unexpected impacts on trait distributions relevant for the functioning of the community in other capacities (e.g., cascading effects to other trophic levels (i.e., pollinators). Finally, the combination of traits represented by the current composition of species in GL and MF might enhance the diagnostic value of productivity and ecosystem processes in the most eroded ecosystems. PMID:26966669

  6. Increasing land use drives changes in plant phylogenetic diversity and prevalence of specialists

    PubMed Central

    Vamosi, Jana C.

    2016-01-01

    Increased human land use has resulted in the increased homogenization of biodiversity between sites, yet we lack sufficient indicators to predict which species decline and the consequence of their potential loss on ecosystem services. We used comparative phylogenetic analysis to (1) characterize how increasing conversion of forest and grasslands to grazing pasturelands changes plant diversity and composition; (2) examine how changes in land use relate to declines in functional trait diversity; and (3) specifically investigate how these changes in plant composition affect the prevalence of zygomorphy and the possible consequences that these changes may have on pollinator functional groups. As predicted, we found that the conversion to grazing pasturelands negatively impacted species richness and phylogenetic composition. Clades with significantly more represented taxa in grasslands (GL) were genera with a high representation of agricultural weeds, while the composition was biased towards clades of subalpine herbaceous wildflowers in Mixed Forest (MF). Changes in community composition and structure had strong effects on the prevalence of zygomorphic species likely driven by nitrogen-fixing abilities of certain clades with zygomorphic flowers (e.g., Fabaceae). Land conversion can thus have unexpected impacts on trait distributions relevant for the functioning of the community in other capacities (e.g., cascading effects to other trophic levels (i.e., pollinators). Finally, the combination of traits represented by the current composition of species in GL and MF might enhance the diagnostic value of productivity and ecosystem processes in the most eroded ecosystems. PMID:26966669

  7. Unhealthy landscapes: Policy recommendations on land use change and infectious disease emergence.

    PubMed

    Patz, Jonathan A; Daszak, Peter; Tabor, Gary M; Aguirre, A Alonso; Pearl, Mary; Epstein, Jon; Wolfe, Nathan D; Kilpatrick, A Marm; Foufopoulos, Johannes; Molyneux, David; Bradley, David J

    2004-07-01

    Anthropogenic land use changes drive a range of infectious disease outbreaks and emergence events and modify the transmission of endemic infections. These drivers include agricultural encroachment, deforestation, road construction, dam building, irrigation, wetland modification, mining, the concentration or expansion of urban environments, coastal zone degradation, and other activities. These changes in turn cause a cascade of factors that exacerbate infectious disease emergence, such as forest fragmentation, disease introduction, pollution, poverty, and human migration. The Working Group on Land Use Change and Disease Emergence grew out of a special colloquium that convened international experts in infectious diseases, ecology, and environmental health to assess the current state of knowledge and to develop recommendations for addressing these environmental health challenges. The group established a systems model approach and priority lists of infectious diseases affected by ecologic degradation. Policy-relevant levels of the model include specific health risk factors, landscape or habitat change, and institutional (economic and behavioral) levels. The group recommended creating Centers of Excellence in Ecology and Health Research and Training, based at regional universities and/or research institutes with close links to the surrounding communities. The centers' objectives would be 3-fold: a) to provide information to local communities about the links between environmental change and public health; b) to facilitate fully interdisciplinary research from a variety of natural, social, and health sciences and train professionals who can conduct interdisciplinary research; and c) to engage in science-based communication and assessment for policy making toward sustainable health and ecosystems. PMID:15238283

  8. Unhealthy Landscapes: Policy Recommendations on Land Use Change and Infectious Disease Emergence

    PubMed Central

    Patz, Jonathan A.; Daszak, Peter; Tabor, Gary M.; Aguirre, A. Alonso; Pearl, Mary; Epstein, Jon; Wolfe, Nathan D.; Kilpatrick, A. Marm; Foufopoulos, Johannes; Molyneux, David; Bradley, David J.

    2004-01-01

    Anthropogenic land use changes drive a range of infectious disease outbreaks and emergence events and modify the transmission of endemic infections. These drivers include agricultural encroachment, deforestation, road construction, dam building, irrigation, wetland modification, mining, the concentration or expansion of urban environments, coastal zone degradation, and other activities. These changes in turn cause a cascade of factors that exacerbate infectious disease emergence, such as forest fragmentation, disease introduction, pollution, poverty, and human migration. The Working Group on Land Use Change and Disease Emergence grew out of a special colloquium that convened international experts in infectious diseases, ecology, and environmental health to assess the current state of knowledge and to develop recommendations for addressing these environmental health challenges. The group established a systems model approach and priority lists of infectious diseases affected by ecologic degradation. Policy-relevant levels of the model include specific health risk factors, landscape or habitat change, and institutional (economic and behavioral) levels. The group recommended creating Centers of Excellence in Ecology and Health Research and Training, based at regional universities and/or research institutes with close links to the surrounding communities. The centers’ objectives would be 3-fold: a) to provide information to local communities about the links between environmental change and public health; b) to facilitate fully interdisciplinary research from a variety of natural, social, and health sciences and train professionals who can conduct interdisciplinary research; and c) to engage in science-based communication and assessment for policy making toward sustainable health and ecosystems. PMID:15238283

  9. Runoff production in a small agricultural catchment in Lao PDR: influence of slope, land-use and observation scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patin, J.; Ribolzi, O.; Mugler, C.; Valentin, C.; Mouche, E.

    2010-12-01

    After years of traditional slash and burn cultures, the Houay Pano catchment is now under high land pressures due to population resettling and environmental preservation policies. This evolution leads to rapid land-use changes in the uplands, such as fallow time reductions and growing of cash crops as teaks or banana. The catchment is located in the Luang Prabang province, in the north of Lao PDR and was selected in late 1998 as a benchmark site for the Managing Soil Erosion Consortium (MSEC). It is a small (60ha) agricultural catchment representative of the rural mountainous South East Asia : it exhibits steep cultivated slopes (from 2% to more than 110%) under a wet-dry monsoon climate. To understand the partition between runoff and infiltration, data from runoff on 20 plot experiments (1m2) under natural rainfall and with representative slopes and land uses is collected from 2003 to 2009. A simulated rainfall experiment was conducted in 2002 on bare soil plots (1m2) with different antecedent cultures. We investigate the role of crust, slope and land-use on runoff production at different scales. A model accounting for small scale variability is applied to compute the time and space variations of soil infiltrability at the plot scale (1m2) and sub-catchment scale (0.6ha). From the hypothesis of exponentially distributed infiltrabilities at the centimeter scale, we found that infiltration is log-normaly distributed over time for a given land use. The median infiltrability vary from 10mm/h under teak cultures to 150mm/h on plots with fallow. Variations along a year are tribute to many meteorological and human factors.

  10. The sustainable management of ameliorated peatlands on changed land use conditions; scenarios of constrains and possibilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shanskiy, , Merrit; Vollmer, Elis; Penu, Priit

    2015-04-01

    The utilization of organic soils for forestry or agriculture requires the land amelioration that could result on the peat losses from 15 to 20 t ha-1 in a year on following five years. After five years, the peat losses will be 5 - 15 t ha-1 in a year. The agricultural land resource on different types of organic soils (including ameliorated bogs) in Estonia is 360 000 ha that comprises 41% of total agricultural land area. The landscape iself is a valuable resource that considered to be a set of characteristics that satisfy needs of people using the landscape: economical or non-economical value; ecological, social, recreational, aesthetical, educational, scientific or even protective value. More diverse landscapes have higher biodiversity and yield more services to public, they are also seen as more sustainable and resilient to short-term changes. In order to maintain landscape diversity, sustainable maintenance is important. The purpose of current study was to estimate the land use potential on three different ameliorated peat areas and to develop the methodology for the futher sustainable utilization in order to secure the best ecological functioning of soil while taking into account maintaining and increasing landscape value. Therefore, site specific soil sampling (n=77) was carried out on predetermined eight study sites. Soil samples were analyzed for main agrochemical parameters (n=17; pHKCl, P, K, C%, N%, S%, ash, main anions and cations). This enables determing site-specific best suitable crops and land use scenarios. For the land resource description (soils type, topology) the digital soil map (1: 10,000) and field sudy based database were used for describing the model areas. For more specific identification of the field layers the Agricultural Registers and Information Board (ARIB) and databases of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) payments were used for subsidy schemes chekout. Estonian Nature Information System map tool was used to specify the

  11. Estimating Indirect Emissions from Land Use Change Due to Biofuels (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reilly, J. M.

    2010-12-01

    Interest in biofuels as an alternative fuel has led to the realization that they may not be a viable low greenhouse gas alternative, even if process emissions are low, because expansions of land area in biomass crops may lead to forest destruction and hence carbon emissions.(1,2)If the concern was only direct land use effects—changes in carbon stocks on land directly used for biomass—direct measurement would be an option. However, agricultural economists recognize that if biofuels are produced from crops grown on existing cropland the crops previously grown there will likely be replaced by production elsewhere. Given international markets in agricultural products a diversion of land or part of the corn crop in the US for biofuels would result in higher market prices for corn and other crops, and thus spur land conversion almost anywhere around the world. There have now been a number of estimates of the potential land use emissions, and those estimates vary widely and are sensitive to key parameters of both the economic models used in the analysis and the representation of biophysical processes.(3,4,5)Among the important parameters are those that describe the willingness to convert unmanaged land, the ability to intensify production on existing land, the productivity of new land coming to production compared to existing cropland, demand elasticities for agricultural products, and the representation of carbon and nitrogen cycles and storage.(6,7) 1. J. Fargione, J. et al., Science 319, 1235 (2008). 2. T. Searchinger, T et al., Science 319, 1238 (2008) 3. J.M. Melillo, Science, 326: 1397-1399 (2009) 4. M. Wise et al., Science 324, 1183 (2009). 5. W. E. Tyner, et al., Land Use Changes and Consequent CO2 Emissions due to US Corn Ethanol Production: A Comprehensive Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University (July 2010). 6. T. W. Hertel, The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making? AAEA Presidential

  12. Significance of urban and agricultural land use for biocide and pesticide dynamics in surface waters.

    PubMed

    Wittmer, I K; Bader, H-P; Scheidegger, R; Singer, H; Lück, A; Hanke, I; Carlsson, C; Stamm, C

    2010-05-01

    Biocides and pesticides are designed to control the occurrence of unwanted organisms. From their point of application, these substances can be mobilized and transported to surface waters posing a threat to the aquatic environment. Historically, agricultural pesticides have received substantially more attention than biocidal compounds from urban use, despite being used in similar quantities. This study aims at improving our understanding of the influence of mixed urban and agricultural land use on the overall concentration dynamics of biocides and pesticides during rain events throughout the year. A comprehensive field study was conducted in a catchment within the Swiss plateau (25 km(2)). Four surface water sampling sites represented varying combinations of urban and agricultural sources. Additionally, the urban drainage system was studied by sampling the only wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) in the catchment, a combined sewer overflow (CSO), and a storm sewer (SS). High temporal resolution sampling was carried out during rain events from March to November 2007. The results, based on more than 600 samples analyzed for 23 substances, revealed distinct and complex concentration patterns for different compounds and sources. Five types of concentration patterns can be distinguished: a) compounds that showed elevated background concentrations throughout the year (e.g. diazinon >50 ng L(-1)), indicating a constant household source; b) compounds that showed elevated concentrations driven by rain events throughout the year (e.g. diuron 100-300 ng L(-1)), indicating a constant urban outdoor source such as facades; c) compounds with seasonal peak concentrations driven by rain events from urban and agricultural areas (e.g. mecoprop 1600 ng L(-1) and atrazine 2500 ng L(-1) respectively); d) compounds that showed unpredictably sharp peaks (e.g. atrazine 10,000 ng L(-1), diazinon 2500 ng L(-1)), which were most probably due to improper handling or even disposal of products; and

  13. Impacts of climate and land use changes on the hydrological and erosion processes of two contrasting Mediterranean catchments.

    PubMed

    Serpa, D; Nunes, J P; Santos, J; Sampaio, E; Jacinto, R; Veiga, S; Lima, J C; Moreira, M; Corte-Real, J; Keizer, J J; Abrantes, N

    2015-12-15

    The impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow and sediment export were evaluated for a humid (São Lourenço) and a dry (Guadalupe) Mediterranean catchment, using the SWAT model. SWAT was able to produce viable streamflow and sediment export simulations for both catchments, which provided a baseline for investigating climate and land use changes under the A1B and B1 emission scenarios for 2071-2100. Compared to the baseline scenario (1971-2000), climate change scenarios showed a decrease in annual rainfall for both catchments (humid: -12%; dry: -8%), together with strong increases in rainfall during winter. Land use changes were derived from a socio-economic storyline in which traditional agriculture is replaced by more profitable land uses (i.e. corn and commercial forestry at the humid site; sunflower at the dry site). Climate change projections showed a decrease in streamflow for both catchments, whereas sediment export decreased only for the São Lourenço catchment. Land use changes resulted in an increase in streamflow, but the erosive response differed between catchments. The combination of climate and land use change scenarios led to a reduction in streamflow for both catchments, suggesting a domain of the climatic response. As for sediments, contrasting results were observed for the humid (A1B: -29%; B1: -22%) and dry catchment (A1B: +222%; B1: +5%), which is mainly due to differences in the present-day and forecasted vegetation types. The results highlight the importance of climate-induced land-use change impacts, which could be similar to or more severe than the direct impacts of climate change alone. PMID:26298249

  14. Mapping Soil Organic Carbon Resources Across Agricultural Land Uses in Highland Lesotho Using High Resolution Satellite Imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knight, J.; Adam, E.

    2015-12-01

    Mapping spatial patterns of soil organic carbon (SOC) using high resolution satellite imagery is especially important in inaccessible or upland areas that have limited field measurements, where land use and land cover (LULC) are changing rapidly, or where the land surface is sensitive to overgrazing and high rates of soil erosion and thus sediment, nutrient and carbon export. Here we outline the methods and results of mapping soil organic carbon in highland areas (~2400 m) of eastern Lesotho, southern Africa, across different land uses. Bedrock summit areas with very thin soils are dominated by xeric alpine grassland; terrace agriculture with strip fields and thicker soils is found within river valleys. Multispectral Worldview 2 imagery was used to map LULC across the region. An overall accuracy of 88% and kappa value of 0.83 were achieved using a support vector machine model. Soils were examined in the field from different LULC areas for properties such as soil depth, maturity and structure. In situ soils in the field were also evaluated using a portable analytical spectral device (ASD) in order to ground truth spectral signatures from Worldview. Soil samples were examined in the lab for chemical properties including organic carbon. Regression modeling was used in order to establish a relationship between soil characteristics and soil spectral reflectance. We were thus able to map SOC across this diverse landscape. Results show that there are notable differences in SOC between upland and agricultural areas which reflect both soil thickness and maturity, and land use practices such as manuring of fields by cattle. Soil erosion and thus carbon (nutrient) export is significant issue in this region, which this project will now be examining.

  15. PROJECTING LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT (INTERNAL GRANT)

    EPA Science Inventory



    Land use change is arguably the primary driver that will impact ecological resources in the U.S. during the next 50 years. This task is developing methods to analyze potential land use changes that result from changes in human population growth, economics, public works, a...

  16. Towards Sustaining Water Resources and Aquatic Ecosystems: Forecasting Watershed Risks to Current and Future Land Use Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lohse, K. A.; Newburn, D.; Opperman, J. J.; Brooks, C.; Merenlender, A.

    2005-05-01

    Sustaining aquatic resources requires managing existing threats and anticipating future impacts. Resource managers and planners often have limited understanding of the relative effects of human activities on stream conditions and how these effects will change over time. Here we assess and forecast the relative impacts of land use on sediment concentrations in Mediterranean-climate watersheds in California. We focus on the Russian River basin, which supports threatened salmonid populations vulnerable to high levels of fine sediment. We ask the following questions: (1) What are the relative impacts of three different land uses (urban, exurban and agriculture) on the patterns of fine sediment in streams? (2) What is the relative contribution of past and current changes in land use activities on these patterns? and (3) What are the effects of future development on these sediment levels? First, we characterized land use at the parcel scale to calibrate the relative impacts of exurban and urban land use on stream substrate quality, characterized by the concentration of fine sediment surrounding spawning gravels (`embeddedness') in 105 stream reaches. Second, we built multiple ordinal logistic regression models on a subset of watersheds (n=64) and then evaluated substrate quality predictions against observed data from another set of watersheds (n=41). Finally, we coupled these models with spatially explicit land use change models to project future stream conditions and associated uncertainties under different development scenarios for the year 2010. We found that the percent of urban housing and agriculture were significant predictors of in-stream embeddedness. Model results from parcel-level land use data indicated that changes in development were better predictors of fine sediment than total development in a single time period. In addition, our results indicate that exurban development is an important threat to stream systems; increases in the percent of total exurban

  17. The Impacts of Land Use Change on Malaria Vector Abundance in a Water-Limited Highland Region of Ethiopia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stryker, J.; Bomblies, A.

    2012-12-01

    Changes in land use and climate are expected to alter risk of malaria transmission in areas where rainfall limits vector abundance. We use a coupled hydrology-entomology model to investigate the effects of land use change on hydrological processes impacting mosquito abundance in a highland village of Ethiopia. Land use affects partitioning of rainfall into infiltration and runoff that reaches small-scale topographic depressions, which constitute the primary breeding habitat of Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes. A physically-based hydrology model isolates hydrological mechanisms by which land use impacts pool formation and persistence, and an agent-based entomology model evaluates the response of mosquito populations. This approach reproduced observed interannual variability in mosquito abundance between the 2009 and 2010 wet seasons. Several scenarios of land cover were then evaluated using the calibrated, field-validated model. Model results show variation in pool persistence and depth, as well as in mosquito abundance, due to land use changes alone. The model showed particular sensitivity to surface roughness, but also to root zone uptake. Scenarios in which land use was modified from agriculture to forest generally resulted in lowest mosquito abundance predictions; classification of the entire domain as rainforest produced a 34% decrease in abundance compared to 2010 results. This study also showed that in addition to vegetation type, spatial proximity of land use change to habitat locations has an impact on mosquito abundance. This modeling approach can be applied to assess impacts of climate and land use conditions that fall outside of the range of previously observed variability.

  18. Potential population-level effects of land-use change and climate change

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change and land-use change are poised to be two fo the largest drivers of biological changeover the next century. We explored the potential effects of these two forces on a population of Red-cockaded Woodpeckers (Picoides borealis) at Fort Benning in Georgia, USA. We us...

  19. Riparian responses to extreme climate and land-use change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Fernandes, Maria Rosário; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, Maria Teresa

    2016-11-01

    Climate change will induce alterations in the hydrological and landscape patterns with effects on riparian ecotones. In this study we assess the combined effect of an extreme climate and land-use change scenario on riparian woody structure and how this will translate into a future risk of riparian functionality loss. The study was conducted in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) were used to model two riparian landscape indicators related with the degree of connectivity (Mean Width) and complexity (Area Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension). Riparian data were extracted by planimetric analysis of high spatial-resolution Word Imagery Layer (ESRI). Hydrological, climatic and land-use variables were obtained from available datasets and generated with process-based modeling using current climate data (2008-2014), while also considering the high-end RCP8.5 climate-change and "Icarus" socio-economic scenarios for the 2046-2065 time slice. Our results show that hydrological and land-use changes strongly influence future projections of riparian connectivity and complexity, albeit to diverse degrees and with differing effects. A harsh reduction in average flows may impair riparian zones while an increase in extreme rain events may benefit connectivity by promoting hydrologic dynamics with the surrounding floodplains. The expected increase in broad-leaved woodlands and mixed forests may enhance the riparian galleries by reducing the agricultural pressure on the area in the vicinity of the river. According to our results, 63% of river segments in the Tâmega basin exhibited a moderate risk of functionality loss, 16% a high risk, and 21% no risk. Weaknesses and strengths of the method are highlighted and results are discussed based on a resilience perspective with regard to riparian ecosystems. PMID:27341115

  20. Biofuels, land use change, and greenhouse gas emissions: some unexplored variables.

    PubMed

    Kim, Hyungtae; Kim, Seungdo; Dale, Bruce E

    2009-02-01

    Greenhouse gas release from land use change (the so-called "carbon debt") has been identified as a potentially significant contributor to the environmental profile of biofuels. The time required for biofuels to overcome this carbon debt due to land use change and begin providing cumulative greenhouse gas benefits is referred to as the "payback period" and has been estimated to be 100-1000 years depending on the specific ecosystem involved in the land use change event. Two mechanisms for land use change exist: "direct" land use change, in which the land use change occurs as part of a specific supply chain for a specific biofuel production facility, and "indirect" land use change, in which market forces act to produce land use change in land that is not part of a specific biofuel supply chain, including, for example, hypothetical land use change on another continent. Existing land use change studies did not consider many of the potentially important variables that might affect the greenhouse gas emissions of biofuels. We examine here several variables that have not yet been addressed in land use change studies. Our analysis shows that cropping management is a key factor in estimating greenhouse gas emissions associated with land use change. Sustainable cropping management practices (no-till and no-till plus cover crops) reduce the payback period to 3 years for the grassland conversion case and to 14 years for the forest conversion case. It is significant that no-till and cover crop practices also yield higher soil organic carbon (SOC) levels in corn fields derived from former grasslands or forests than the SOC levels that result if these grasslands or forests are allowed to continue undisturbed. The United States currently does not hold any of its domestic industries responsible for its greenhouse gas emissions. Thus the greenhouse gas standards established for renewable fuels such as corn ethanol in the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 set a

  1. Association of land use and its change with beach closure in the United States, 2004-2013.

    PubMed

    Wu, Jianyong; Jackson, Laura

    2016-11-15

    Land use and its change have great influences on water quality. However, their impacts on microbial contamination of beach water have rarely been investigated and their relationship with beach actions (e.g., advisories or closure) is still unknown. Here, we analyzed beach closure data obtained from 2004 to 2013 for >500 beaches in the United States, and examined their associations with land use around beaches in 2006 and 2011, as well as the land use change between 2006 and 2011. The results show that the number of beach closures due to elevated indicators of health risk is negatively associated with the percentages of forest, barren land, grassland and wetland, while positively associated with the percentages of urban area. The results from multi-level models also indicate the negative association with forest area but positive association with urban area and agriculture. The examination of the change of land use and the number of beach closures between 2006 and 2011 indicates that the increase in the number of beach closures is positively associated with the increase in urban (β=1.612, p<0.05) and agricultural area including pasture (β=0.098, p<0.05), but negatively associated with the increase in forest area (β=-1.789, p<0.05). The study suggests that urbanization and agriculture development near beaches have adverse effects on beach microbial water quality, while afforestation may protect beach water quality and reduce the number of beach closures. PMID:27459255

  2. Agriculture, Land Use, Energy and Carbon Emission Impacts of Global Biofuel Mandates to Mid-Century

    SciTech Connect

    Wise, Marshall A.; Dooley, James J.; Luckow, Patrick; Calvin, Katherine V.; Kyle, G. Page

    2014-02-01

    Three potential future scenarios of expanded global biofuel production are presented here utilizing the GCAM integrated assessment model. These scenarios span a range that encompasses on the low end a continuation of existing biofuel production policies to two scenarios that would require an expansion of current targets as well as an extension of biofuels targets to other regions of the world. Conventional oil use is reduced by 4-8% in the expanded biofuel scenarios, which results in a decrease of in CO2 emissions on the order of 1-2 GtCO2/year by mid-century from the global transportation sector. The regional distribution of crop production is relatively unaffected, but the biofuels targets do result in a marked increase in the production of conventional crops used for energy. Producer prices of sugar and corn reach levels about 12% and 7% above year 2005 levels, while the increased competition for land causes the price of food crops such as wheat, although not used for bioenergy in this study, to increase by 1 to 2%. The amount of land devoted to growing all food crops and dedicated bioenergy crops is increased by about 10% by 2050 in the High biofuel case, with concurrent decreases in other uses of land such as forest and pasture. In both of the expanded biofuels cases studied, there is an increase in net cumulative carbon emissions for the first couple of decades due to these induced land use changes. However, the difference in net cumulative emissions from the biofuels expansion decline by about 2035 as the reductions in energy system emissions exceed further increases in emissions from land use change. Even in the absence of a policy that would limit emissions from land use change, the differences in net cumulative emissions from the biofuels scenarios reach zero by 2050, and are decreasing further over time in both cases.

  3. Agricultural Land Use mapping by multi-sensor approach for hydrological water quality monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brodsky, Lukas; Kodesova, Radka; Kodes, Vit

    2010-05-01

    The main objective of this study is to demonstrate potential of operational use of the high and medium resolution remote sensing data for hydrological water quality monitoring by mapping agriculture intensity and crop structures. In particular use of remote sensing mapping for optimization of pesticide monitoring. The agricultural mapping task is tackled by means of medium spatial and high temporal resolution ESA Envisat MERIS FR images together with single high spatial resolution IRS AWiFS image covering the whole area of interest (the Czech Republic). High resolution data (e.g. SPOT, ALOS, Landsat) are often used for agricultural land use classification, but usually only at regional or local level due to data availability and financial constraints. AWiFS data (nominal spatial resolution 56 m) due to the wide satellite swath seems to be more suitable for use at national level. Nevertheless, one of the critical issues for such a classification is to have sufficient image acquisitions over the whole vegetation period to describe crop development in appropriate way. ESA MERIS middle-resolution data were used in several studies for crop classification. The high temporal and also spectral resolution of MERIS data has indisputable advantage for crop classification. However, spatial resolution of 300 m results in mixture signal in a single pixel. AWiFS-MERIS data synergy brings new perspectives in agricultural Land Use mapping. Also, the developed methodology procedure is fully compatible with future use of ESA (GMES) Sentinel satellite images. The applied methodology of hybrid multi-sensor approach consists of these main stages: a/ parcel segmentation and spectral pre-classification of high resolution image (AWiFS); b/ ingestion of middle resolution (MERIS) vegetation spectro-temporal features; c/ vegetation signatures unmixing; and d/ semantic object-oriented classification of vegetation classes into final classification scheme. These crop groups were selected to be

  4. Effects of changes in land use on soil properties in Estonia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krebstein, Kadri; Reintam, Endla

    2013-04-01

    One important factor influencing the soil properties is the human activity and especially the agricultural activity. Effects of changes in land use and human activities on soil properties are remarkable on the topsoil, the lower soil layers are less affected. During the last century the land use in Estonia has considerably changed. In Estonia the area of abandoned agricultural land has been rapidly increasing during the last decades. The purpose of our study was to estimate the effects of changes in land use on soil properties in Estonia. The field experiment has been established on the experimental station of Estonian University of Life Sciences in Rõhu. The experimental area was used during the years 1960-2006 as an apple garden, 2006-2007 it was ploughed and since 2008 the experimental area has been used as grassland. In our trial we compared the changes in soil properties before and after the experimental area was used as grassland (2007 and 2008). The two grassland species in the trial were Phalaris arundinacea L. and Dactylis glomerata L. The soil of experimental area was a sandy loam Haplic Luvisol (siltic). Soil properties like the soil bulk density, soil porosity and the water permeability were studied in 30 cm soil column in every 5 cm soil layer. The results indicated changes in the soil properties. Before the grassland management the soil bulk density was in the upper layer (0-5 cm) approximately 19 % and in deeper layer (15-20 cm) 10 % higher as under the grassland. Changes of soil porosity were not so considerable before and after the grassland management. The highest alteration occurred in the values of soil air capacity were the change was from low to high in upper layer (0-5 cm) and from medium to high in the deeper layer (15-20 cm). The water permeability before the grassland management was medium and under Dactylis glomerata in the upper layer (0-5 cm) low and in the deeper layer (15-20 cm) high. Our results showed that the vegetation provided

  5. Climate change and land use drivers of fecal bacteria in tropical hawaiian rivers.

    PubMed

    Strauch, Ayron M; Mackenzie, Richard A; Bruland, Gregory L; Tingley, Ralph; Giardina, Christian P

    2014-07-01

    Potential shifts in rainfall driven by climate change are anticipated to affect watershed processes (e.g., soil moisture, runoff, stream flow), yet few model systems exist in the tropics to test hypotheses about how these processes may respond to these shifts. We used a sequence of nine watersheds on Hawaii Island spanning 3000 mm (7500-4500 mm) of mean annual rainfall (MAR) to investigate the effects of short-term (24-h) and long-term (MAR) rainfall on three fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) (enterococci, total coliforms, and ). All sample sites were in native Ohia dominated forest above 600 m in elevation. Additional samples were collected just above sea level where the predominant land cover is pasture and agriculture, permitting the additional study of interactions between land use across the MAR gradient. We found that declines in MAR significantly amplified concentrations of all three FIB and that FIB yield increased more rapidly with 24-h rainfall in low-MAR watersheds than in high-MAR watersheds. Because storm frequency decreases with declining MAR, the rate of change in water potential affects microbial growth, whereas increased rainfall intensity dislodges more soil and bacteria as runoff compared with water-logged soils of high-MAR watersheds. As expected, declines in % forest cover and increased urbanization increased FIB. Taken together, shifts in rainfall may alter bacterial inputs to tropical streams, with land use change also affecting water quality in streams and near-shore environments. PMID:25603095

  6. Land-Use Change and Emerging Infectious Disease on an Island Continent

    PubMed Central

    McFarlane, Rosemary A.; Sleigh, Adrian C.; McMichael, Anthony J.

    2013-01-01

    A more rigorous and nuanced understanding of land-use change (LUC) as a driver of emerging infectious disease (EID) is required. Here we examine post hunter-gatherer LUC as a driver of infectious disease in one biogeographical region with a compressed and documented history—continental Australia. We do this by examining land-use and native vegetation change (LUCC) associations with infectious disease emergence identified through a systematic (1973–2010) and historical (1788–1973) review of infectious disease literature of humans and animals. We find that 22% (20) of the systematically reviewed EIDs are associated with LUCC, most frequently where natural landscapes have been removed or replaced with agriculture, plantations, livestock or urban development. Historical clustering of vector-borne, zoonotic and environmental disease emergence also follows major periods of extensive land clearing. These advanced stages of LUCC are accompanied by changes in the distribution and density of hosts and vectors, at varying scales and chronology. This review of infectious disease emergence in one continent provides valuable insight into the association between accelerated global LUC and concurrent accelerated infectious disease emergence. PMID:23812027

  7. An integrated modeling approach to evaluate likely climate and land use induced landscape changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gobattoni, F.; Pelorosso, R.; Santini, M.; Rulli, M. C.

    2009-04-01

    The effects of land use and land cover change (LUCC) can be better understood and assessed through a deep comprehension of past land use practices, current land use and land cover patterns, but also recurring to projections of future scenarios. Land use time and space distribution is controlled by local factors such as topography, physical and chemical soil characteristics, anthropic pressures (e.g., population growth and density, economic and technologic development etc). Moreover climate and his variability can dramatically affect land-use practices as well as landscape vulnerability to events. Human decisions concerning land government (cropping, forestation, deforestation, basin planning, urbanization etc.) and climate and hydrologic cycle are involved in a complex mechanism of cause-and-effect. Coupling climate change (CC) and land use change scenarios with hydrogeomorphologic models may help in addressing the issue of climate and land use induced landscape changes. Two case studies in Italy are here presented, related to two catchments having different morpho-climatic characteristics. By considering CC predictions obtained by PRUDENCE project and LUCC scenarios obtained applying a land use change models as input to the hydrogeomorphologic model, the hydrological response and erosion are investigated for each combination of climate and land use scenario.

  8. Assessing Climatic Impacts due to Land Use Change over Southeast Asian Maritime Continent base on Mesoscale Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, N.; Christopher, S. A.; Nair, U. S.

    2014-12-01

    Due to increasing urbanization, deforestation, and agriculture, land use change over Southeast Asia has dramatically risen during the last decades. Large areas of peat swamp forests over the Southeast Asian Maritime Continent region (10°S~20°N and 90°E~135°E) have been cleared for agricultural purposes. The Center for Remote Imaging, Sensing and Processing (CRISP) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived land cover classification data show that changes in land use are dominated by conversion of peat swamp forests to oil palm plantation, open lowland or lowland mosaic categories. Nested grid simulations based on Weather Research Forecasting Version 3.6 modelling system (WRFV3.6) over the central region of the Sarawak coast are used to investigate the climatic impacts of land use change over Maritime Continent. Numerical simulations were conducted for August of 2009 for satellite derived land cover scenarios for years 2000 and 2010. The variations in cloud formation, precipitation, and regional radiative and non-radiative parameters on climate results from land use change have been assessed based on numerical simulation results. Modelling studies demonstrate that land use change such as extensive deforestation processes can produce a negative radiative forcing due to the surface albedo increase and evapotranspiration decrease, while also largely caused reduced rainfall and cloud formation, and enhanced shortwave radiative forcing and temperature over the study area. Land use and land cover changes, similar to the domain in this study, has also occurred over other regions in Southeast Asia including Indonesia and could also impact cloud and precipitation formation in these regions.

  9. Arsenic and fluoride variations in groundwater of an endorheic basin undergoing land-use changes.

    PubMed

    Reyes-Gómez, Víctor M; Alarcón-Herrera, María Teresa; Gutiérrez, Mélida; López, Daniel Núñez

    2015-02-01

    The salt content of soil and water in endorheic basins within arid areas greatly restrict agricultural activities. Despite this limitation, these lands are increasingly used to accommodate new settlements and/or agricultural practices. This study focuses on the Laguna El Cuervo closed basin of northern Mexico and its underlying aquifer, which has been found to contain high concentrations of arsenic (As) and fluoride (F). The spatial distribution of As and F, their variations with time, and the impact of drought conditions and land-use changes were investigated using well data collected from a total of 27 wells in 2007, 2010, and 2011 (As data also collected in 2005). Four of these wells were used as monitoring wells. Data also included the As content of 140 surface sediments. Results showed that 54.5 % of the wells surpassed the As limit for drinking water of 0.025 mg L(-1) and that 89.0 % surpassed he F limit of 1.5 mg L(-1). Spatial analyses identified the areas in the center of the basin with the highest content of contaminants. Principal component and correlation analyses showed a co-occurrence of As and F with r = 0.55 for the 2011 data and 0.59 for the combined data. In contrast, the relationship of As and F concentrations to droughts and changes in land use were not as clearly shown, possibly because of the short time this area has been monitored. The high As and F concentrations in the groundwater may be limiting the availability of water within this basin, especially considering the greater groundwater demand foreseen for the future. Water-conservation practices, such as drip irrigation and artificial groundwater recharge, should be considered to maintain groundwater levels supportive of agricultural practices. PMID:25224991

  10. The impacts of land use, radiative forcing, and biological changes on regional climate in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dairaku, K.; Pielke, R. A., Sr.

    2013-12-01

    Because regional responses of surface hydrological and biogeochemical changes are particularly complex, it is necessary to develop assessment tools for regional scale adaptation to climate. We developed a dynamical downscaling method using the regional climate model (NIED-RAMS) over Japan. The NIED-RAMS model includes a plant model that considers biological processes, the General Energy and Mass Transfer Model (GEMTM) which adds spatial resolution to accurately assess critical interactions within the regional climate system for vulnerability assessments to climate change. We digitalized a potential vegetation map that formerly existed only on paper into Geographic Information System data. It quantified information on the reduction of green spaces and the expansion of urban and agricultural areas in Japan. We conducted regional climate sensitivity experiments of land use and land cover (LULC) change, radiative forcing, and biological effects by using the NIED-RAMS with horizontal grid spacing of 20 km. We investigated regional climate responses in Japan for three experimental scenarios: 1. land use and land cover is changed from current to potential vegetation; 2. radiative forcing is changed from 1 x CO2 to 2 x CO2; and 3. biological CO2 partial pressures in plants are doubled. The experiments show good accuracy in reproducing the surface air temperature and precipitation. The experiments indicate the distinct change of hydrological cycles in various aspects due to anthropogenic LULC change, radiative forcing, and biological effects. The relative impacts of those changes are discussed and compared. Acknowledgments This study was conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA), and was supported by the

  11. Integrating land use and climate change scenarios and models into assessment of forested watershed services in Southern Thailand.

    PubMed

    Trisurat, Yongyut; Eawpanich, Piyathip; Kalliola, Risto

    2016-05-01

    The Thadee watershed, covering 112km(2), is the main source of water for agriculture and household consumption in the Nakhon Srithammarat Province in Southern Thailand. As the natural forests upstream have been largely degraded and transformed to fruit tree and rubber plantations, problems with landslides and flooding have resulted. This research attempts to predict how further land-use/land-cover changes during 2009-2020 and conceivable changes in rainfall may influence the future levels of water yield and sediment load in the Thadee River. Three different land use scenarios (trend, development and conservation) were defined in collaboration with the local stakeholders, and three different rainfall scenarios (average rainfall, climate change and extreme wet) were determined on the basis of literature sources. Spatially explicit empirical modelling was employed to allocate future land demands and to assess the contributions of land use and rainfall changes, considering both their separate and combined effects. The results suggest that substantial land use changes may occur from a large expansion of rubber plantations in the upper sub-watersheds, especially under the development land use scenario. The reduction of the current annual rainfall by approximately 30% would decrease the predicted water yields by 38% from 2009. According to the extreme rainfall scenario (an increase of 36% with respect to current rainfall), an amplification of 50% of the current runoff could result. Sensitivity analyses showed that the predicted soil loss is more responsive to changes in rainfall than to the compared land use scenarios alone. However, very high sediment load and runoff levels were predicted on the basis of combined intensified land use and extreme rainfall scenarios. Three conservation activities-protection, reforestation and a mixed-cropping system-are proposed to maintain the functional watershed services of the Thadee watershed region. PMID:26915561

  12. Changes in spatiotemporal land use patterns in selected hydrogeomorphic areas of China and the USA

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Differences exist in land use/cover pattern and its change between the P. R. China and the USA. In order to describe those differences, land use changes in representative regions were quantitatively analyzed and compared. Xiamen City, Changzhutan region and Liupan Mountains regions were selected to ...

  13. Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB). Users' Manual and Technical Documentation

    SciTech Connect

    Dunn, Jennifer B.; Qin, Zhangcai; Mueller, Steffen; Kwon, Ho-young; Wander, Michelle M.; Wang, Michael

    2014-09-01

    The Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB) calculates carbon emissions from land use change (LUC) for four different ethanol production pathways including corn grain ethanol and cellulosic ethanol from corn stover, Miscanthus, and switchgrass. This document discusses the version of CCLUB released September 30, 2014 which includes corn and three cellulosic feedstocks: corn stover, Miscanthus, and switchgrass.

  14. Patterns and Structures of Land Use Change in the Three Rivers Headwaters Region of China

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Jingbiao; Wang, Yi Chen; Guo, Luo; Xue, Dayuan

    2015-01-01

    Located in Qinghai Province of China, the Three Rivers Headwaters Region is the source region of the Yangtze, Yellow and Lantsang Rivers, and plays an important role in biodiversity conservation and regulating water supply. Despite many efforts on land use change in Qinghai, knowledge of the spatial variation of land use change is still lacking. This study examines the patterns of land use change across various watersheds, prefectures and the temple surroundings. Remote sensing images of 1987, 1997 and 2007 were analyzed to derive land use distributions; patterns and structures of the landscape were then quantified with landscape metrics. The results illustrated that the Yangtze River headwater region had more diverse and more evenly distributed landscape, while the Lantsang and the Yellow headwater regions showed a decline in landscape diversity. Comparison of the land use patterns of four prefectures revealed that Yushu Prefecture experienced an increase in landscape diversity from 1987 to 2007 while the land use patches in Guoluo Prefecture exhibited more aggregated patterns than other prefectures. Analysis of the spatial variations of land use change in the temple surroundings illustrated that 19.7% and 35.9% of the temples in Guoluo and Yushu Prefectures, respectively, encountered land use change for their immediate areas within 2 km. Comparison of the surroundings of temples and human settlements found that land use change was not evenly distributed, and that greater land use change had occurred for the surroundings of human settlements. Such findings provided insights into the spatial variation of land use change in the Three Rivers Headwaters Region. PMID:25816147

  15. Recent land-use/land-cover change in the Central California Valley

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Soulard, Christopher E.; Wilson, Tamara S.

    2013-01-01

    Open access to Landsat satellite data has enabled annual analyses of modern land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) for the Central California Valley ecoregion between 2005 and 2010. Our annual LULCC estimates capture landscape-level responses to water policy changes, climate, and economic instability. From 2005 to 2010, agriculture in the region fluctuated along with regulatory-driven changes in water allocation as well as persistent drought conditions. Grasslands and shrublands declined, while developed lands increased in former agricultural and grassland/shrublands. Development rates stagnated in 2007, coinciding with the onset of the historic foreclosure crisis in California and the global economic downturn. We utilized annual LULCC estimates to generate interval-based LULCC estimates (2000–2005 and 2005–2010) and extend existing 27 year interval-based land change monitoring through 2010. Resulting change data provides insights into the drivers of landscape change in the Central California Valley ecoregion and represents the first, continuous, 37 year mapping effort of its kind.

  16. Impacts of climate change and past land use change on the water resources in Pune, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, P. D.; Kumar, S.; Schneider, K.

    2012-12-01

    Global change affects local and regional water resources and is therefore of major concern in current hydrologic research. Especially in regions with scarce water resources, high climate sensitivity, and/or dynamic socio-economic development, research on developing suitable adaptation and mitigation strategies is needed. In this study, we used the well-established and widely-used hydrologic model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to study the impact of climate change and past land use change on water resources. Our study aims at analyzing the impact of global change on the water balance components in the meso-scale Mula and Mutha Rivers catchment upstream of the city of Pune, India. To analyze climate change impacts regional climate model data based on IPCC emission scenario A1B was used by employing a downscaling method that rearranges historically measured data. The hydrologic model was run with the rearranged scenario weather data and model results were analyzed for the scenario period from 2020 to 2099. Past land use changes between 1989 and 2009 were identified with the help of three multi-temporal land use classifications, which were based on multi-spectral satellite data. Two model runs were performed and compared using the land use classifications of 1989 and 2009. Climate change leads to a slight increase of evapotranspiration. Particularly in the rainy season and in the first months of the dry season higher evapotranspiration can be observed. Towards the end of the scenario period low water storages in the major dams of the catchment at the beginning of the dry season indicate severe impacts on water availability. The impacts of land use changes balance out on the catchment scale and are hence more obvious at the sub-basin scale, where e.g., urbanization results in increased runoff and decreased evapotranspiration.

  17. Biofuels and land-use changes: searching for the top model

    PubMed Central

    Nassar, Andre M.; Harfuch, Leila; Bachion, Luciane C.; Moreira, Marcelo R.

    2011-01-01

    The use of agricultural-based biofuels has expanded. Discussions on how to assess green house gas (GHG) emissions from biofuel policies, specifically on (non-observed) land-use change (LUC) effects involve two main topics: (i) the limitations on the existing methodologies, and (ii) how to isolate the effects of biofuels. This paper discusses the main methodologies currently used by policy-makers to take decisions on how to quantify LUCs owing to biofuel production expansion. It is our opinion that the concerns regarding GHG emissions associated with LUCs should focus on the agricultural sector as a whole rather than concentrating on biofuel production. Actually, there are several limitations of economic models and deterministic methodologies for simulating and explaining LUCs resulting from the expansion of the agricultural sector. However, it is equally true that there are avenues of possibilities to improve models and make them more accurate and precise in order to be used for policy-making. Models available need several improvements to reach perfection. Any top model requires a concentration of interdisciplinary designers in order to replicate empirical evidence and capture correctly the agricultural sector dynamics for different countries and regions. Forgetting those limitations means that models will be used for the wrong purposes. PMID:22482029

  18. Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chawla, I.; Mujumdar, P. P.

    2015-08-01

    Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use (LU) and climate change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage water resources in river basins. This paper presents a simple hydrologic modeling-based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate change on the streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin (UGB) in India is selected as the case study to carry out the analysis. Streamflow in the river basin is modeled using a calibrated variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The approach involves development of three scenarios to understand the influence of land use and climate on streamflow. The first scenario assesses the sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes under invariant climate. The second scenario determines the change in streamflow due to change in climate assuming constant land use. The third scenario estimates the combined effect of changing land use and climate over the streamflow of the basin. Based on the results obtained from the three scenarios, quantification of isolated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is addressed. Future projections of climate are obtained from dynamically downscaled simulations of six general circulation models (GCMs) available from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Uncertainties associated with the GCMs and emission scenarios are quantified in the analysis. Results for the case study indicate that streamflow is highly sensitive to change in urban areas and moderately sensitive to change in cropland areas. However, variations in streamflow generally reproduce the variations in precipitation. The combined effect of land use and climate on streamflow is observed to be more pronounced compared to their individual impacts in the basin. It is observed from the isolated effects of land use and climate change that climate has a more dominant impact on streamflow in the region. The approach proposed in this

  19. Contemporary and projected changes in global water use efficiency and crop productivity induced by land use and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, S.; Tian, H.; Ouyang, Z.; Ren, W.; Tao, B.; Yang, J.; Lu, C.; Wang, X.

    2012-12-01

    Much concern has been raised about the impacts of climate and land use changes on water resource and food security through the climate-lwater-food nexus. However, it is short of investigation on the quantitative understanding and assessment of how land use and climate change have affected global water use efficiency and crop productivity, the key measures of water and food security. By using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) driven by spatially-explicit information on land use, climate and other environmental changes, we have assessed the spatial and temporal patterns of crop productivity, evapotranspiration (ET) and water use efficiency across the global land surface in the past three decades (1980-2010) and the projected period (2011-2099). Specifically, we have examined the following three questions: 1) How have global crop productivity and ET been affected by climate variability and land use change in the past three decades; 2) How will global crop productivity respond to climate changes (temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) in the future (2011-2099)? and 3) What are the relative roles of climate change and land us in altering global crop productivity and water use efficiency? Our preliminary results indicate that crop productivity in the past three decades shows an increasing trend primarily due to agricultural intensification including the increased uses of fertilizers and irrigation. However, Crop productivity shows substantially spatial and temporal variations due to inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability and spatial heterogeneity of environmental drivers. Climate extremes especially droughts and heat wave have largely reduced crop productivity, particularly in South Asia, Northern China, Africa, South America and US. Future climate warming could reduce crop productivity and shift cropland distribution. Our study further suggests that improving water use efficiency through land management practices will be the key for reducing

  20. Land use and land cover change detection in Karinca river catchment (NW Turkey) using GIS and RS techniques.

    PubMed

    Efe, Recep; Soykan, Abdullah; Curebal, Isa; Sonmez, Suleyman

    2012-04-01

    The basin of Karinca river, in the north-west of Turkey, covers an area of 29,840 ha. Pronounced changes in land use emerged as a result of the development of activities in the tourism sector in Turkey in the 1970's. The basin has been significantly affected in the course of this process. This study was conducted in order to determine the land use changes (as well as the type of changes and their direction) occurring in the use of land in the Karinca river catchment for the period 1979-2007. The geographical data were gathered by using 1:25000 scale topographical maps as a basis. Thus, the existing soil and land use data from 1979 were processed on these bases and the the main materials rendering the land use were produced. Geometric verification was made by putting the previously prepared bases onto landsat ETM+ and satellite images of 2007. In the final stage, results pertaining to the changes in land use were obtained by overlapping the two sets of data. All processes were done using the ArcGIS Desktop v9.x program. According to the data of the year 1979, the catchment area consisted of 43.4% forest, 26.5% grassland, 18.3% olive groves, 10.6% agriculture and 1.2% built-up lands. Comparing these coverage with the data of 2007, show a clear shift among residential areas, olive groves and forest terrain. It was found that the agricultural areas, particularly along the shoreline, were converted into resort houses and that the olive groves (the dominant land use) shifted from lower regions to its upper sectors. All these changes caused loss of natural habitats leading to degradation. PMID:23424849

  1. Land use change through damming: potential impacts on water quality and quantity in the Luanhe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manful, D. Y.; Su, B.; Jiang, T.; He, Y.; Frede, H.-G.; Breuer, L.

    2012-04-01

    We investigate the preliminary effects of land use change through the construction of reservoirs on water quality and quantity in the Luanhe. The Luan River empties directly to the Bo Hai (sea) in North Eastern China. The Luanhe drains mostly Hebei Province however some its flow comes from Inner Mongolia. The main river originates north of Mt. Bayanguer. Average annual precipitation is around 564 mm with an annual discharge of about 147 m3/s measured at the Luanxian station. The catchment area is 44 800 km2 and the main channel length is 888 km. The Luanhe and the Haihe are connected hydraulically. The construction of reservoirs impacts the landscape by changing pasture, forest and agricultural land, river corridors and streams into a lacustrine system. The end effect is a significant change in land cover characteristics. Additional stressors such as (1) intensification of agriculture (increase in the use of fertilizers), (2) urbanisation (community waste water effluent) and climate variability present a complicated picture for water resources management in this part of the Hai he. We investigate the influence of aforementioned factors on three reservoirs in the Luan he. A nutrient flux and flow network (NFFN) is set up to identify and follow sources, sinks and transient storage of nitrogen. Operating rules of the three reservoirs that serve the megacity of Tianjing is also assessed. We present potential impacts on general water quantity and quality of the Luanhe. First impression of risks to reservoir water quality is also provided. Output from the NFFN can form the basis of future detailed hydro-biogeochemical modelling exercise to determine the effects of future land use change scenarios on water resources in the Luanhe.

  2. [Changes and analysis of soil quality under different land use types in oasis rim].

    PubMed

    Gui, Dong-Wei; Lei, Jia-Qiang; Zeng, Fan-Jiang; Mu, Gui-Jin; Yang, Fa-Xiang; Zhu, Jun-Tao

    2010-09-01

    The aggravation process of oasisization leads to changes of land use type in oasis rim. In order to discuss the effects of different land use types on soil properties and soil quality, the four land use types located Cele oasis rim in south margin of Tarim Basin, which are the cotton field, orchard, and Caligonum mongolicum Turcz land use type reclaimed by people and nature state land use type covered by Alhagi sparsifolia SHAP, were selected as study object. The relative soil quality index (RI) and the soil quality synthesis index (SQI) were used to analyse the changes of soil quality between four land use types within 0-20 cm, 2040 cm, 40-60 cm soil depth, respectively. Meantime, the fractal theory was used to analyse the particle-size distribution (PSD) property of top soil under different land use types. The results indicated that there was a significant difference in the soil organic matter and total nitrogen in same soil depth between four land use types; the order ranked according to RI was same to the order ranked according to SQI in each soil depth between four land use types. The cotton field and orchard have an obviously positive effect on soil quality of the top soil, however, the soil quality of Alhagi sparsifolia SHAP land use type was gradually increasing along with the increasing soil depth. The soil properties and soil quality of Caligonum mongolicum Turcz land use type were at the lowest level according to the comparison results among all land use types, and the calculation results of PSD fractal dimension also indicated the Caligonum mongolicum Turcz land use type had the worst ability on maintaining soil fine fractions. PMID:21072954

  3. Holocene Biomass Burning, Environmental Change, and Human Land Use in the Southern Maya Lowlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, L.; Wahl, D.

    2013-12-01

    For several decades scholars have studied the dynamic relationship between the prehispanic Maya and their environment in order to test hypotheses that environmental change played a role in the abandonment of the Maya lowlands. Fire was inherent in Maya land use practices, arguably the primary tool used to alter the landscape and extract resources. Opening of forest for agriculture, building, and extraction/production of construction material necessitated burning. The extensive production of lime plaster for architectural and domestic use demanded harvesting and burning of vast quantities of green wood. While we understand the fundamental role of fire in Maya land use, there are very few records of prehispanic biomass burning from the Maya lowlands. Consequently, only a limited understanding exists of both natural fire regimes and patterns of anthropogenic burning in the tropical dry forests of Central America. Here we report two new well-dated, high-resolution records of biomass burning based on analysis of fossil charcoal recovered from lacustrine sediment cores, extending from the early Holocene to the present. The study sites, Lagos Paixban and Puerto Arturo are located in the southern Maya lowlands in modern northern Peten, Guatemala. Macroscopic charcoal data are presented along with previously published proxy data from the sites, and interpreted in the context of existing regional and local paleoenvironmental and archeological records. Results show that frequent fires occurred in the closed canopy forests of the region since at least the early mid-Holocene (~9000 BP), prior to occupation by sedentary agriculturalists. Following the arrival of sedentary agriculture at around 4600 BP, the system transitioned from climate controlled to anthropogenic control. During the Maya period, changes in fire regime are muted and do not appear to be driven by changes in climate conditions. Low charcoal influx and fire frequency in the Preclassic period suggest that land use

  4. Land Use. An Instructional Unit for Teachers of Adult Vocational Education in Agriculture.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wise, Jack; Iverson, Maynard J.

    An adult farmer course designed to develop the effective ability of land holders to plan for and implement wise land use is presented. The unit consists of eight lesson plans: (1) the importance of land use, (2) the physical and chemical properties of the soil, (3) soil testing as a tool of land use, (4) balanced fertilization of soils, (5)…

  5. Impact of land use changes on connectivity in a rural catchment with mild topography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Langhammer, Jakub; Ghaffari, Golaleh

    2016-04-01

    Concept of sediment connectivity and quantitative assessment of its spatial distribution became important tool for analysis of spatial connectivity of sediment transport processes in basins. Most of the first connectivity studies is focused on montane basins with high rates of erosion originating in steep slopes in headwater areas. However, less attention is paid to the mild landscapes in highland and lowland landscape, with often high connectivity. It applies to the rural areas where the sediment transport and erosion control are of key importance. Assessment of connectivity and its control in such environment thus can contribute to the efficient and sustainable landscape management. In our study we have tested applicability of the concept of index of sediment connectivity (IC) in mid-latitude rural catchment with mild topography and extensive share of arable land. The aim of the study was (i) to test the GIS-based IC calculation in specific topographic conditions, (ii) to assess the effects of land use changes on the sediment connectivity and (iii) to identify the landscape features affecting connection between hillslopes and stream channels. The study area - Loucka River Basin, Czech Republic with area of 386 sq km is located in highland landscape with 60% share of arable land. The basin study area has a reverse pattern of topography compared to the typical montane catchments - the extensive headwater areas, used for agriculture, are flat and are drained into steep valleys in downstream. The basin is equipped with long-term monitoring of suspended sediment transport. We have used the high resolution 5 meter DEM derived from aerial LiDAR scanning as a base for analysis of topographic controls of sediment connectivity and for calculation of connectivity topographic index. The index of connectivity was calculated in a multitemporal scale of two decades since 1990 to analyze the the changes of sediment connectivity and its spatial distribution in response to the

  6. [Land Use Pattern Change and Regional Sustainability Evaluation of Wetland in Jiaogang Lake].

    PubMed

    Yang, Yang; Cai, Yi-min; Bai, Yan-ying; Chen, Wei-ping; Yang, Xiu-chao

    2015-06-01

    Changes in land use and sustainability evaluation of wetland in Jiaogang Lake from 1995 to 2013 were analyzed, based on the land use change models and an index system, supported by RS, GIS, and social statistical data. The results showed: (1) dry land, paddy field, and building land were the predominant landscape in the study area. The arable land was mainly converted during 1995-2000, which was driven by the extension of agriculture, and the building land increased significantly during 2010-2013, which was driven by the tourism development. (2) Compared to the beginning research area, the building land increased by 123.3%, and the wetland decreased by 23.15%. The land system was at risk for a low proportion of wetland, scarcity of unused land, and the fragmented landscape. (3) The regional sustainability results were bad level, bad level, poor level, good level, and poor level during the different periods, with some room for improvement. (4) The fitness of regional sustainability in study area yielded satisfactory results in 2010, owing to the rapid growth of regional productivity and the regional stability. Since 2010, with the increasing environmental load, the regional sustainability fell down to the poor level. The obstruction of sustainable development is necessary to be addressed in the study area. PMID:26387342

  7. Carbon pool and biomass dynamics associated with deforestation, land use, and agricultural abandonment in the neotropics.

    PubMed

    Kauffman, J Boone; Hughes, R Flint; Heider, Chris

    2009-07-01

    Current rates of deforestation and the resulting C emissions in the tropics exceed those of secondary forest regrowth and C sequestration. Changing land-use strategies that would maintain standing forests may be among the least expensive of climate change mitigation options. Further, secondary tropical forests have been suggested to have great value for their potential to sequester atmospheric C. These options require an understanding of and capability to quantify C dynamics at landscape scales. Because of the diversity of physical and biotic features of tropical forests as well as approaches and intensities of land uses within the neotropics, there are tremendous differences in the capacity of different landscapes to store and sequester C. Major gaps in our current knowledge include quantification of C pools, rates and patterns of biomass loss following land-cover change, and quantification of the C storage potential of secondary forests following abandonment. In this paper we present a synthesis and further analyses from recent studies that describe C pools, patterns of C decline associated with land use, and rates of C accumulation following secondary-forest establishment--all information necessary for climate-change mitigation options. Ecosystem C pools of Neotropical primary forests minimally range from approximately 141 to 571 Mg/ha, demonstrating tremendous differences in the capacity of different forests to store C. Most of the losses in C and nutrient pools associated with conversion occur when fires are set to remove the slashed forest to prepare sites for crop or pasture establishment. Fires burning slashed primary forests have been found to result in C losses of 62-80% of prefire aboveground pools in dry (deciduous) forest landscapes and 29-57% in wet (evergreen) forest landscapes. Carbon emissions equivalent to the aboveground primary-forest pool arise from repeated fires occurring in the first 4 to 10 years following conversion. Feedbacks of climate

  8. Historical Land Use Change Estimates for Climate Modelers: Results from The HYDE Database.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klein Goldewijk, K.

    2003-04-01

    It is beyond doubt that human activities always have modified the natural environment, but it has become clear that during the last centuries the intensity and scale of these modifications has increased dramatically. Land cover changes affect climate by their impact on surface energy and moisture budgets, and thus should be included in global climate models. Therefore, a growing need is developed for better knowledge of historical land cover. A database with historical data of the global environment (HYDE) was created, which can be used in global climate models. HYDE covers not only land use (changes), but also general topics such as population, livestock, gross domestic product, and value added of industry and/or services as well. These driving forces occur at several spatial and temporal scales and dimensions, and differ often among regions. This requires a geographically explicit modeling approach. Where possible, data have been organized at the country level, and for the period 1700 to 1990. Some data are also available with geographic detail (Klein Goldewijk, 2001; Klein Goldewijk and Battjes, 1997). Examples of a global reconstruction of 300 years historical land use are presented, using gridded historical population estimates as a proxy for allocation of agricultural land. References: Klein Goldewijk, K., 2001. Estimating Global Land Use over the past 300 years: The HYDE 2.0 database. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 15(2): 417--433. Klein Goldewijk, C.G.M. and J.J. Battjes, 1997. A Hundred Year (1890 1990) Database for Integrated Environmental Assessments (HYDE, version 1.1). RIVM Report no. 422514002. National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM). 196 pp. Internet: http://www.rivm.nl/env/int/hyde/

  9. Impacts of land use change on hydrological components and macroinvertebrate distributions in the Poyang lake area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmalz, Britta; Kuemmerlen, Mathias; Kiesel, Jens; Jähnig, Sonja C.; Fohrer, Nicola

    2014-05-01

    Climate and land use changes affect river ecosystems globally and cause environmental impacts at different spatial and temporal scales. An integrated modelling approach for depicting the effect of environmental changes on aquatic ecosystems was developed and tested. Catchment characteristics, the flow regime and the distribution of aquatic organisms were linked together. The Changjiang river catchment (1717 km²), as part of the Poyang Lake basin in China, was selected as the test area. Measuring and sampling campaigns at 50 locations were carried out for collecting land use, hydrological, hydraulic and biological (macroinvertebrate) data. The water balance of the catchment was modeled with the ecohydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The streamflow time series computed with SWAT at each of the 50 sampling points were tranfered to the species distribution model BIOMOD which predicted the occurrence of macroinvertebrates in the stream network based on hydrological, climatic and topographic variables. The SWAT modeling results showed high temporal dynamics where 72% of the annual streamflow occurred during the monsoon season from March to July. Due to various slopes, soil characteristics, land cover and associated land management, a high spatial variability of surface runoff between the subbasins and HRUs was detected. The highest values occurred on agricultural land with cabbage cultivation, the lowest in forest areas. The SWAT model indicates that deforestation scenarios result in higher streamflow, higher surface runoff and altered flow patterns compared with the base model. In contrast, model runs representing afforestation showed opposite trends. The predictions for the stream macroinvertebrate community, arising from the integrated modelling framework were found to be suitable for describing changing environmental conditions. The deforestation scenario reduced macroinvertebrate richness through the increase in agriculture and tea plantations.

  10. Cost, drivers and action against land degradation through land use and cover change in Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sorokin, Alexey; Strokov, Anton; Johnson, Timothy; Mirzabaev, Alisher

    2016-04-01

    The natural conditions and socio-economic factors determine the structure and the principles of land use in Russia. The increasing degradation of land resources in many parts of Russia manifested in numerous forms such as desertification, soil erosion, secondary salinization, water-logging and overgrazing. The major drivers of degradation include: climatic change, unsustainable agricultural practices, industrial and mining activities, expansion of crop production to fragile and marginal areas, inadequate maintenance of irrigation and drainage networks. Several methods for estimating Total Economic Value of land-use and land-cover change were used: 1) the cost of production per hectare (only provisional services were included); 2) the value of ecosystem services provided by Costanza et al, 1997; 3) coefficients of basic transfer and contingent approaches based on Tianhong et al, 2008 and Xie et al, 2003, who interviewed 200 ecologists to give a value of ecosystem services of different land types in China; 4) coefficients on a basic transfer and contingent approaches based on author's interview of 20 experts in Lomonosov Moscow State University. In general, the estimation of the prices for action and inaction in addressing the degradation and improvement of the land resources on a national scale (the Federal districts) with an emphasis on the period of economic reforms from 1990-2009 in Russia, where the area of arable lands decreased by 25% showed that the total land use/cover dynamic changes are about 130 mln ha, and the total annual costs of land degradation due to land-use change only, are about 189 bln USD in 2009 as compared with 2001, e.g. about 23.6 bln USD annually, or about 2% of Russia's Gross Domestic Product in 2010. The costs of action against land degradation are lower than the costs of inaction in Russia by 5-6 times over the 30 year horizon. Almost 92% of the costs of action are made up of the opportunity costs of action. The study was performed with

  11. [Effects of land use change on landscape pattern vulnerability in Yinchuan Basin, Northwest China].

    PubMed

    Ren, Zhi-yuan; Zhang, Han

    2016-01-01

    Landscape pattern vulnerability reflects the instability and sensitivity of ecological system to external disturbances and helps to understand the status and trend of ecological environment. This paper used landscape sensitivity index and landscape adaptability index to construct the landscape pattern vulnerability index of Yinchuan Basin, and got the distribution of the landscape pattern vulnerability in 2001 and 2013. Our study explored the effect of the land use degree composite index, the integrated land use dynamic degree, the importance index of land use change and various types of land transfer on landscape pattern vulnerability. Results showed that the land use degree composite index was mainly caused by the increase of the arable land, forest and the construction land. The higher proportion of the arable land or forest, the lower the vulnerability was, and the construction land had the opposite effect. With the increase of integrated land use dynamic degree, the construction land significantly increased the vulnerability, followed by grassland, and the forest significantly decreased the vulnerability, followed by the arable land. As the importance index of land use change increasing, the arable land could significantly decrease the vulnerability, followed by the forest, the grassland had a weaker trend with no obvious pattern, and the construction land significantly increased the vulnerability. When the arable land, forest and the grassland were the maintypes of land use transfer, the increasing proportion of the construction land increased the vulnerability. When the construction land was the main type of land use transfer, the grassland and forest improved the vulnerability and the arable land had the opposite effect. Changes in the number of land use types influenced the spatial structure of land use to a certain extent, which could offer a reference on using and developing the land resources scientifically. The ternary diagram could reflect the impact

  12. Benchmarking land use change impacts on direct runoff in ungauged urban watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozdemir, Hasan; Elbaşı, Emre

    This paper describes the results of benchmark testing of land use change impact on direct runoff using Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) model in two ungauged neighbouring urban watersheds (Çınar and Kadıyakuplu) in Istanbul, Turkey. To examine this impact, the model was applied to daily rainfall data using three different dated (1982, 1996 and 2012) hydrological soil groups and land use of the two ungauged urban watersheds. Finally, the impact of land use change and model performance were evaluated with the rainfall-runoff regression, the coefficient of determination and the NSE test using benchmark runoff data based on 1982 land use conditions. The results of the analysis indicate that the changing of land use types from natural surfaces to impervious surfaces has a significant impact on surface runoff. Additionally, remarkable spatial variations of the land use changes and their impact on the runoff in 1996 and 2012 were more detected in the Çınar watershed compared with the Kadıyakuplu watershed. The planning decision on land use of the watersheds, has vital role in these differences. The results of this research also reveal that change to intensive land use in urban watersheds has a significantly larger impact on runoff generation than those rainfall.

  13. Simulating land use change by integrating landscape metrics into ANN-CA in a new way

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Xin; Zhao, Yu; Chen, Rui; Zheng, Xinqi

    2016-06-01

    Landscape metrics are measurements of landuse patterns and land-use change, but even so, have rarely been integrated into land-use change simulation models. This paper proposes a new artificial neural network-cellular automaton by integrating landscape metrics into the model. In this model, each cell acquires unique landscape metric values. The landscape metric values of each cell are actually the landscape metric values of land use type in its neighborhood, which takes the cell as center. The calculation of landscape metrics ensures that those of each cell can represent cellular spatial environmental characteristics. The model is used to simulate land use change in the Changping district of Beijing, China. Comparisons of the simulated land use map with the actual map show that the proposed model is effective for land use change simulation. The validation is further carried out by comparing the simulated land use map with that simulated by an artificial neural network-cellular automaton model, which has not been integrated with landscape metrics. Results indicate that the proposed model is more appropriate for simulating both quantity and spatial distribution of land use change in the study area.

  14. Monitoring the hydrology of Canadian prairie wetlands to detect the effects of climate change and land use changes.

    PubMed

    Conly, F M; Van der Kamp, G

    2001-01-01

    There are millions of small isolated wetlands in the semi-arid Canadian prairies. These sloughs' are refuges for wildlife in an area that is otherwise intensively used for agriculture. They are particularly important as waterfowl habitat, with more than half of all North American ducks nesting in prairie sloughs. The water levels and ecology of the wetlands are sensitive to atmospheric change and to changes of agricultural practices in the surrounding fields. Monitoring of the hydrological conditions of the wetlands across the region is vital for detecting long-term trends and for studying the processes that control the water balance of the wetlands. Such monitoring therefore requires extensive regional-scale data complemented by intensive measurements at a few locations. At present, wetlands are being enumerated across the region once each year and year-round monitoring is being carried out at a few locations. The regional-scale data can be statistically related to regional climate data, but such analyses cast little light on the hydrological processes and have limited predictive value when climate and land use are changing. The intensive monitoring network has provided important insights but it now needs to be expanded and revised to meet new questions concerning the effects of climate change and land use. PMID:11339699

  15. Impacts of land use and climate variability on hydrology in an agricultural catchment on the Loess Plateau of China

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Land use and climate are the two major factors directly influencing catchment hydrology; however, it is difficult to separate the effects of the two. Using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tools) model, we assessed the impacts of land use change and climate variability on surface hydrology (runof...

  16. Conterminous United States Surface Radiative Forcing due to Contemporary Land Cover Land Use Albedo Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnes, C. A.; Roy, D. P.

    2012-12-01

    Recently available Landsat land cover land use (LCLU) change information for four epochs, 1973-1980, 1980-1986, 1986-1992 and 1992-2000, and MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) albedo and snow cover data are used to estimate LCLU albedo change surface radiative forcing for the conterminous United States (CONUS) for each epoch and for 1973 to 2000. Landsat 10 × 10 km or 20 × 20 km LCLU classification maps for 1973, 1980, 1986, 1992 and 2000 located using a stratified random sampling methodology with respect to 84 contiguous CONUS ecoregions are used to provide ecoregion and CONUS estimates. A CONUS scale warming (0.0037 Wm-2) due to LCLU albedo change from 1973 to 2000 is estimated associated with decreasing agricultural and forested lands and increasing developed and grassland/shrublands. The 1986 to 1992 period had the highest overall CONUS forcing (0.0093 Wm-2) due to agricultural land conversion, attributed primarily to the 1985 Farm Bill that established the Conservation Reserve Program. The radiative forcing for individual ecoregions varied geographically in sign and magnitude, with the most negative forcings (as low as -0.8630 Wm-2) due to forest loss, and the most positive forcings (up to 0.2640 Wm-2) due to the conversion of grasslands/shrublands. These results make an important contribution to quantifying the role of LCLU change on the climate system, and underscore the need for repeat, wall-to-wall, spatially-explicit national LCLU mapping.

  17. Applying consequential LCA to support energy policy: land use change effects of bioenergy production.

    PubMed

    Vázquez-Rowe, Ian; Marvuglia, Antonino; Rege, Sameer; Benetto, Enrico

    2014-02-15

    Luxembourg aims at complying with the EU objective of attaining a 14% use of bioenergy in the national grid by 2020. The increase of biomethane production from energy crops could be a valuable option in achieving this objective. However, the overall environmental benefit of such option is yet to be proven. Consequential Life Cycle Assessment (CLCA) has shown to be a useful tool to evaluate the environmental suitability of future energy scenarios and policies. The objective of this study was, therefore, to evaluate the environmental consequences of modifying the Luxembourgish agricultural system to increase maize production for biomethane generation. A total of 10 different scenarios were modelled using a partial equilibrium (PE) model to identify changes in land cultivation based on farmers' revenue maximisation, which were then compared to the baseline scenario, i.e. the state of the agricultural sector in 2009. The results were divided into three different consequential decision contexts, presenting differing patterns in terms of land use changes (LUCs) but with minor shifts in environmental impacts. Nevertheless, energy from maize production would imply substantially higher environmental impacts when compared with the current use of natural gas, mainly due to increases in climate change and agricultural land occupation impacts. The results are discussed based on the consequences they may generate on the bioenergy policy, the management of arable land, the changes in import-export flows in Luxembourg and LUCs in the domestic agricultural system. In addition, the specific PE+LCA method presented intends to be of use for other regional studies in which a high level of site-specific data is available. PMID:24291133

  18. A simple approach to distinguish land-use and climate-change effects on watershed hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tomer, Mark D.; Schilling, Keith E.

    2009-09-01

    SummaryImpacts of climate change on watershed hydrology are subtle compared to cycles of drought and surplus precipitation (PPT), and difficult to separate from effects of land-use change. In the US Midwest, increasing baseflow has been more attributed to increased annual cropping than climate change. The agricultural changes have led to increased fertilizer use and nutrient losses, contributing to Gulf of Mexico hypoxia. In a 25-yr, small-watershed experiment in Iowa, when annual hydrologic budgets were accrued between droughts, a coupled water-energy budget (ecohydrologic) analysis showed effects of tillage and climate on hydrology could be distinguished. The fraction of PPT discharged increased with conservation tillage and time. However, unsatisfied evaporative demand (PET - Hargreaves method) increased under conservation tillage, but decreased with time. A conceptual model was developed and a similar analysis conducted on long-term (>1920s) records from four large, agricultural Midwest watersheds underlain by fine-grained tills. At least three of four watersheds showed decreases in PET, and increases in PPT, discharge, baseflow and PPT:PET ratios ( p < 0.10). An analysis of covariance showed the fraction of precipitation discharged increased, while unsatisfied evaporative demand decreased with time among the four watersheds ( p < 0.001). Within watersheds, agricultural changes were associated with ecohydrologic shifts that affected timing and significance, but not direction, of these trends. Thus, an ecohydrologic concept derived from small-watershed research, when regionally applied, suggests climate change has increased discharge from Midwest watersheds, especially since the 1970s. By inference, climate change has increased susceptibility of nutrients to water transport, exacerbating Gulf of Mexico hypoxia.

  19. A simple approach to distinguish land-use and climate-change effects on watershed hydrology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tomer, M.D.; Schilling, K.E.

    2009-01-01

    Impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology are subtle compared to cycles of drought and surplus precipitation (PPT), and difficult to separate from effects of land-use change. In the US Midwest, increasing baseflow has been more attributed to increased annual cropping than climate change. The agricultural changes have led to increased fertilizer use and nutrient losses, contributing to Gulf of Mexico hypoxia. In a 25-yr, small-watershed experiment in Iowa, when annual hydrologic budgets were accrued between droughts, a coupled water-energy budget (ecohydrologic) analysis showed effects of tillage and climate on hydrology could be distinguished. The fraction of PPT discharged increased with conservation tillage and time. However, unsatisfied evaporative demand (PET - Hargreaves method) increased under conservation tillage, but decreased with time. A conceptual model was developed and a similar analysis conducted on long-term (>1920s) records from four large, agricultural Midwest watersheds underlain by fine-grained tills. At least three of four watersheds showed decreases in PET, and increases in PPT, discharge, baseflow and PPT:PET ratios (p < 0.10). An analysis of covariance showed the fraction of precipitation discharged increased, while unsatisfied evaporative demand decreased with time among the four watersheds (p < 0.001). Within watersheds, agricultural changes were associated with ecohydrologic shifts that affected timing and significance, but not direction, of these trends. Thus, an ecohydrologic concept derived from small-watershed research, when regionally applied, suggests climate change has increased discharge from Midwest watersheds, especially since the 1970s. By inference, climate change has increased susceptibility of nutrients to water transport, exacerbating Gulf of Mexico hypoxia.

  20. Sustainability analysis of bioenergy based land use change under climate change and variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raj, C.; Chaubey, I.; Brouder, S. M.; Bowling, L. C.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Frankenberger, J.; Goforth, R. R.; Gramig, B. M.; Volenec, J. J.

    2014-12-01

    Sustainability analyses of futuristic plausible land use and climate change scenarios are critical in making watershed-scale decisions for simultaneous improvement of food, energy and water management. Bioenergy production targets for the US are anticipated to impact farming practices through the introduction of fast growing and high yielding perennial grasses/trees, and use of crop residues as bioenergy feedstocks. These land use/land management changes raise concern over potential environmental impacts of bioenergy crop production scenarios, both in terms of water availability and water quality; impacts that may be exacerbated by climate variability and change. The objective of the study was to assess environmental, economic and biodiversity sustainability of plausible bioenergy scenarios for two watersheds in Midwest US under changing climate scenarios. The study considers fourteen sustainability indicators under nine climate change scenarios from World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). The distributed hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate perennial bioenergy crops such as Miscanthus and switchgrass, and corn stover removal at various removal rates and their impacts on hydrology and water quality. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) developed to evaluate stream fish response to hydrology and water quality changes associated with land use change were used to quantify biodiversity sustainability of various bioenergy scenarios. The watershed-scale sustainability analysis was done in the St. Joseph River watershed located in Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio; and the Wildcat Creek watershed, located in Indiana. The results indicate streamflow reduction at watershed outlet with increased evapotranspiration demands for high-yielding perennial grasses. Bioenergy crops in general improved in-stream water quality compared to conventional cropping systems (maize-soybean). Water

  1. Interaction effects of climate and land use/land cover change on soil organic carbon sequestration.

    PubMed

    Xiong, Xiong; Grunwald, Sabine; Myers, D Brenton; Ross, C Wade; Harris, Willie G; Comerford, Nicolas B

    2014-09-15

    Historically, Florida soils stored the largest amount of soil organic carbon (SOC) among the conterminous U.S. states (2.26 Pg). This region experienced rapid land use/land cover (LULC) shifts and climate change in the past decades. The effects of these changes on SOC sequestration are unknown. The objectives of this study were to 1) investigate the change in SOC stocks in Florida to determine if soils have acted as a net sink or net source for carbon (C) over the past four decades and 2) identify the concomitant effects of LULC, LULC change, and climate on the SOC change. A total of 1080 sites were sampled in the topsoil (0-20 cm) between 2008 and 2009 representing the current SOC stocks, 194 of which were selected to collocate with historical sites (n = 1251) from the Florida Soil Characterization Database (1965-1996) for direct comparison. Results show that SOC stocks significantly differed among LULC classes--sugarcane and wetland contained the highest SOC, followed by improved pasture, urban, mesic upland forest, rangeland, and pineland while crop, citrus and xeric upland forest remained the lowest. The surface 20 cm soils acted as a net sink for C with the median SOC significantly increasing from 2.69 to 3.40 kg m(-2) over the past decades. The SOC sequestration rate was LULC dependent and controlled by climate factors interacting with LULC. Higher temperature tended to accelerate SOC accumulation, while higher precipitation reduced the SOC sequestration rate. Land use/land cover change observed over the past four decades also favored the C sequestration in soils due to the increase in the C-rich wetland area by ~140% and decrease in the C-poor agricultural area by ~20%. Soils are likely to provide a substantial soil C sink considering the climate and LULC projections for this region. PMID:25010945

  2. Land-use Changes on Peatlands in Russia and Green House Gas Emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sirin, A.; Minaeva, T.; Chistotin, M.; Glagolev, M.; Suvorov, G.

    2009-04-01

    Russia possesses vast areas of peatlands and associated paludified shallow peat lands, over 8 and 20% respectively. The country is the largest World peatland nation, and thus could be responsible for the large part of GHG exchange between peatlands and the atmosphere. Russian peatlands present a high variety of natural conditions from permafrost mires to bogs, fens and swamps within boreal, temperate, steppe and semi-arid zones, which have quite different rates of GHG flux, emitting or absorbing carbon dioxide and methane. Many regions of Russia still contain vast areas of virgin mires but in the central European part of Russia, West Siberia and Far East the appreciable part of peatlands was already modified. Peatlands were used in a broad spectrum of human activities connected with direct water level draw-down: peat extraction for different purposes (up to 1.5 million ha), drainage for agriculture, and drainage for forestry (each over 3 million ha). Many peatlands all the over the country were affected by infrastructure development (by road, pipe line construction etc.) with related changes of their hydrology and GHG fluxes. These land uses are under consideration of LULUFC issues of UNFCCC, and peat excavation is directly included in IPCC 2006 Guidelines as a main wetland/peatland land use activity related to climate change mitigation. General estimates and geographical distribution of peatlands drained for agriculture and forestry as well as peatlands under excavation, extracted or abandoned are given based on existing statistical and sectoral information. GHG fluxes from disturbed peatlands are analyzed using available Russian data and the results of specially organized observations in 2004-2008 in the pilot regions in Central European Russia and West Siberia which included a variety of modified and virgin control sites.

  3. Drought, Land-Use Change, and Water Availability in California's Central Valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faunt, C. C.; Sneed, M.; Traum, J.

    2015-12-01

    The Central Valley is a broad alluvial-filled structural trough that covers about 52,000 square kilometers and is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. Because the valley is semi-arid and the availability of surface water varies substantially from year to year, season to season, and from north to south, agriculture developed a reliance on groundwater for irrigation. During recent drought periods (2007-09 and 2012-present), groundwater pumping has increased due to a combination of factors including drought and land-use changes. In response, groundwater levels have declined to levels approaching or below historical low levels. In the San Joaquin Valley, the southern two thirds of the Central Valley, the extensive groundwater pumpage has caused aquifer system compaction, resulting in land subsidence and permanent loss of groundwater storage capacity. The magnitude and rate of subsidence varies based on geologic materials, consolidation history, and historical water levels. Spatially-variable subsidence has changed the land-surface slope, causing operational, maintenance, and construction-design problems for surface-water infrastructure. It is important for water agencies to plan for the effects of continued water-level declines, storage losses, and/or land subsidence. To combat these effects, excess surface water, when available, is artificially recharged. As surface-water availability, land use, and artificial recharge continue to vary, long-term groundwater-level and land-subsidence monitoring and modelling are critical to understanding the dynamics of the aquifer system. Modeling tools, such as the Central Valley Hydrologic Model, can be used in the analysis and evaluation of management strategies to mitigate adverse impacts due to subsidence, while also optimizing water availability. These analyses will be critical for successful implementation of recent legislation aimed toward sustainable groundwater use.

  4. The impacts of land use changes in the mercury flux in the Madeira River, Western Amazon.

    PubMed

    Lacerda, Luiz D; Bastos, Wanderley R; Almeida, Marcelo D

    2012-03-01

    Changes in hydrochemistry and Hg distribution in the Madeira River from Porto Velho to the confluence with the Amazon River were studied in two cruises in 1997 and 2002. Water conductivity was similar in both periods, but the pH was significantly higher in 2002, in particular along the middle reaches of the river. Total suspended matter concentrations also increased from 1997 to 2002 along the same river portion, which is a result of forest conversion to other land uses, in particular pastures and agriculture accelerated during the interval between the cruises. Dissolved Hg concentrations were similar along the river in both cruises, but particulate Hg concentrations increased significantly along the middle portion of the river, although the suspended matter from 2002 was relatively poorer in Hg compared to that from 1997. Since particulate Hg represents more than 90% of the total Hg present in the river water, there was a significant increase in the total Hg transport in the Madeira River. Although gold mining has nearly ceased to exist in the region, the remobilization of Hg from forest soils through conversion to other land uses is responsible for maintaining relatively high Hg content in the Madeira River environment. PMID:22441596

  5. Mapping project on land use changes in the carboniferous region of Santa Catarina

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Valeriano, D. D.; Pereira, M. D. B.

    1983-01-01

    The utilization of remote sensing data for monitoring land use changes by means of digital image analysis is described. The following data were utilized: LANDSAT data from September 4, 1975, April 24, 1978, and September 8, 1981; LANDSAT paper photography data; area IV color photographs; IBGE topography maps, and auxiliary data about the Brazilian state of Santa Catarina. Three kinds of analyses of digital images were carried out. The project identified and mapped major classes of land use areas including urban areas, coal deposits, agricultural areas, forests, lakes, and flood plains. Five areas directly affected by coal exploration southeast of Santa Catarina are identified and described. In addition, the classification system used for organizing data about land cover in a hierarchical arrangement is presented. The project made use of two remote sensing data sources: data of MSS spectral (Mulitspectral Scanner System)/LANDSAT on a scale of 1:100,000 with approximately 80 m resolution, and infrared color aerial photographs on a scale of 1:45,000 with approximately 5 m resolution. Therefore, the classification system included three levels, two selected to be compatible with aerial photography data and the third to conform to the resolution of MSS/LANDSAT.

  6. Application of Time Series Landsat Images to Examining Land-use/Land-cover Dynamic Change.

    PubMed

    Lu, Dengsheng; Hetrick, Scott; Moran, Emilio; Li, Guiying

    2012-07-01

    A hierarchical-based classification method was designed to develop time series land-use/land-cover datasets from Landsat images between 1977 and 2008 in Lucas do Rio Verde, Mato Grosso, Brazil. A post-classification comparison approach was used to examine land-use/land-cover change trajectories, which emphasis is on the conversions from vegetation or agropasture to impervious surface area, from vegetation to agropasture, and from agropasture to regenerating vegetation. Results of this research indicated that increase in impervious surface area mainly resulted from the loss of cerrado in the initial decade of the study period and from loss of agricultural lands in the last two decades. Increase in agropasture was mainly at the expense of losing cerrado in the first two decades and relatively evenly from the loss of primary forest and cerrado in the last decade. When impervious surface area was less than approximately 40 km(2) before 1999, impervious surface area was negatively related to cerrado and forest, and positively related to agropasture areas, but after impervious surface area reached 40 km(2) in 1999, no obvious relationship exists between them. PMID:25328256

  7. Simulating spatial patterns of land-use change in Rondonia, Brazil

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, V.H.; Southworth, F.; O`Neill, R.V.; Rosen, A.

    1992-11-09

    Large scale deforestation in the Brazilian state of Rondonia has resulted from massive colonization and has caused increases in atmospheric CO{sub 2}, soil degradation, loss of extractive resources, and disruption of indigenous populations. A simulation model has been developed that integrates colonization, socioeconomic, and ecological submodels to estimate spatial patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration policies, land tenure practices, and road development scenarios. It is used to model the socioeconomic causes and ecological impacts of rapid deforestation in Rondonia. The simulation can be used to identify scenarios that might optimize economic and agricultural sustainability or reduce emigration. Spatial analysis of the simulation projections shows that very different patterns of deforestation can result depending on whether soil suitability, distance to market or lot size is the prime factor affecting a colonist`s choice of a lot. Projections of the amount and pattern of deforestation under specific scenarios of land-use choice and management can be used to explore the socioeconomic and ecological implications of land-use change.

  8. Simulating spatial patterns of land-use change in Rondonia, Brazil

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, V.H.; Southworth, F.; O'Neill, R.V.; Rosen, A.

    1992-11-09

    Large scale deforestation in the Brazilian state of Rondonia has resulted from massive colonization and has caused increases in atmospheric CO[sub 2], soil degradation, loss of extractive resources, and disruption of indigenous populations. A simulation model has been developed that integrates colonization, socioeconomic, and ecological submodels to estimate spatial patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration policies, land tenure practices, and road development scenarios. It is used to model the socioeconomic causes and ecological impacts of rapid deforestation in Rondonia. The simulation can be used to identify scenarios that might optimize economic and agricultural sustainability or reduce emigration. Spatial analysis of the simulation projections shows that very different patterns of deforestation can result depending on whether soil suitability, distance to market or lot size is the prime factor affecting a colonist's choice of a lot. Projections of the amount and pattern of deforestation under specific scenarios of land-use choice and management can be used to explore the socioeconomic and ecological implications of land-use change.

  9. Phenological Metrics Extraction for Agricultural Land-use Types Using RapidEye and MODIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Xingmei; Doktor, Daniel; Conrad, Christopher

    2016-04-01

    Crop phenology involves the various agricultural events, such as planting, emergence, flowering, development of fruit and harvest. These phenological stages of a crop contain essential information for practical agricultural management, crop productivity estimation, investigations of crop-weather relationships, and also play an important role in improving agricultural land-use classification. In this study, we used MODIS and RapidEye images to extract phenological metrics in central Germany between 2010 and 2014. The Best Index Slope Extraction algorithm was used to remove undesirable data noise from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series of both satellite data before fast Fourier transformation was applied. Metrics optimization for phenology of major crops in the study area (winter wheat, winter barley, winter oilseed rape and sugar beet) and validation were performed with intensive ground observations from the German Weather Service (2010-2014) and our own measurements of BBCH code (Biologische Bundesanstalt für Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Bundessortenamt und CHemische Industrie) (in 2014). We found that the dates with maximum NDVI have a close link to the heading stage of cereals (RMSE = 9.48 days for MODIS and RMSE = 13.55 days for RapidEye), and the dates of local half maximum during senescence period of winter crops was strongly related to ripeness stage (BBCH: 87) (RMSE = 8.87 days for MODIS and RMSE = 9.62 days for RapidEye). The root-mean-square errors (RMSE) of derived green up dates for both winter and summer crops were larger than 2 weeks, which was caused by limited number of good quality images during the winter season. Comparison between RapidEye and homogeneous MODIS pixels indicated that phenological metrics derived from both satellites were similar to the crop calendar in this region. We also investigated the influence of spatial aggregation of RapidEye-scale phenology to MODIS scale as well as the effect of decreasing the

  10. Land Use, climate change and BIOdiversity in cultural landscapes (LUBIO): Assessing feedbacks and promoting land-use strategies towards a viable future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dullinger, Iwona; Bohner, Andreas; Dullinger, Stefan; Essl, Franz; Gaube, Veronika; Haberl, Helmut; Mayer, Andreas; Plutzar, Christoph; Remesch, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Land-use and climate change are important, pervasive drivers of global environmental change and pose major threats to global biodiversity. Research to date has mostly focused either on land-use change or on climate change, but rarely on the interactions between both drivers, even though it is expected that systemic feedbacks between changes in climate and land use will have important effects on biodiversity. In particular, climate change will not only alter the pool of plant and animal species capable of thriving in a specific area, it will also force land owners to reconsider their land use decisions. Such changes in land-use practices may have major additional effects on local and regional species composition and abundance. In LUBIO, we will explore the anticipated systemic feedbacks between (1) climate change, (2) land owner's decisions on land use, (3) land-use change, and (4) changes in biodiversity patterns during the coming decades in a regional context which integrates a broad range of land use practices and intensity gradients. To achieve this goal, an integrated socioecological model will be designed and implemented, consisting of three principal components: (1) an agent based model (ABM) that simulates decisions of important actors, (2) a spatially explicit GIS model that translates these decisions into changes in land cover and land use patterns, and (3) a species distribution model (SDM) that calculates changes in biodiversity patterns following from both changes in climate and the land use decisions as simulated in the ABM. Upon integration of these three components, the coupled socioecological model will be used to generate scenarios of future land-use decisions of landowners under climate change and, eventually, the combined effects of climate and land use changes on biodiversity. Model development of the ABM will be supported by a participatory process intended to collect regional and expert knowledge through a series of expert interviews, a series

  11. Ten principles for a landscape approach to reconciling agriculture, conservation, and other competing land uses

    PubMed Central

    Sayer, Jeffrey; Sunderland, Terry; Ghazoul, Jaboury; Pfund, Jean-Laurent; Sheil, Douglas; Meijaard, Erik; Venter, Michelle; Boedhihartono, Agni Klintuni; Day, Michael; Garcia, Claude; van Oosten, Cora; Buck, Louise E.

    2013-01-01

    “Landscape approaches” seek to provide tools and concepts for allocating and managing land to achieve social, economic, and environmental objectives in areas where agriculture, mining, and other productive land uses compete with environmental and biodiversity goals. Here we synthesize the current consensus on landscape approaches. This is based on published literature and a consensus-building process to define good practice and is validated by a survey of practitioners. We find the landscape approach has been refined in response to increasing societal concerns about environment and development tradeoffs. Notably, there has been a shift from conservation-orientated perspectives toward increasing integration of poverty alleviation goals. We provide 10 summary principles to support implementation of a landscape approach as it is currently interpreted. These principles emphasize adaptive management, stakeholder involvement, and multiple objectives. Various constraints are recognized, with institutional and governance concerns identified as the most severe obstacles to implementation. We discuss how these principles differ from more traditional sectoral and project-based approaches. Although no panacea, we see few alternatives that are likely to address landscape challenges more effectively than an approach circumscribed by the principles outlined here. PMID:23686581

  12. Transient simulations of historical climate change including interactive carbon emissions from land-use change.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matveev, A.; Matthews, H. D.

    2009-04-01

    Carbon fluxes from land conversion are among the most uncertain variables in our understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle, which limits our ability to estimate both the total human contribution to current climate forcing and the net effect of terrestrial biosphere changes on atmospheric CO2 increases. The current generation of coupled climate-carbon models have made significant progress in simulating the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but do not typically include land-use change as a dynamic component of the simulation. In this work we have incorporated a book-keeping land-use carbon accounting model into the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), and intermediate-complexity coupled climate-carbon model. The terrestrial component of the UVic ESCM allows an aerial competition of five plant functional types (PFTs) in response to climatic conditions and area availability, and tracks the associated changes in affected carbon pools. In order to model CO2 emissions from land conversion in the terrestrial component of the model, we calculate the allocation of carbon to short and long-lived wood products following specified land-cover change, and use varying decay timescales to estimate CO2 emissions. We use recently available spatial datasets of both crop and pasture distributions to drive a series of transient simulations and estimate the net contribution of human land-use change to historical carbon emissions and climate change.

  13. Vulnerabilities of national parks in the American Midwest to climate and land use changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stroh, Esther D.; Struckhoff, Matthew A.; Shaver, David; Karstensen, Krista A.

    2016-01-01

    Many national parks in the American Midwest are surrounded by agricultural or urban areas or are in highly fragmented or rapidly changing landscapes. An environmental stressor is a physical, chemical, or biological condition that affects the functioning or productivity of species or ecosystems. Climate change is just one of many stressors on park natural resources; others include urbanization, land use change, air and water pollution, and so on. Understanding and comparing the relative vulnerability of a suite of parks to projected climate and land use changes is important for region-wide planning. A vulnerability assessment of 60 units in the 13-state U.S. National Park Service Midwestern administrative region to climate and land use change used existing data from multiple sources. Assessment included three components: individual park exposure (5 metrics), sensitivity (5 metrics), and constraints to adaptive capacity (8 metrics) under 2 future climate scenarios. The three components were combined into an overall vulnerability score. Metrics were measures of existing or projected conditions within park boundaries, within 10-kilometer buffers surrounding parks, and within ecoregions that contain or intersect them. Data were normalized within the range of values for all assessed parks, resulting in high, medium, and low relative rankings for exposure, sensitivity, constraints to adaptive capacity, and overall vulnerability. Results are consistent with assessments regarding patterns and rates of climate change nationwide but provide greater detail and relative risk for Midwestern parks. Park overall relative vulnerability did not differ between climate scenarios. Rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and constraints to adaptive capacity varied geographically and indicate regional conservation planning opportunities. The most important stressors for the most vulnerable Midwestern parks are those related to sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of the park) and

  14. Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Sumatra.

    PubMed

    Marlier, Miriam E; DeFries, Ruth; Pennington, Derric; Nelson, Erik; Ordway, Elsa M; Lewis, Jeremy; Koplitz, Shannon N; Mickley, Loretta J

    2015-01-01

    Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change over the last few decades as forests and peatswamps have been cleared for more intensively managed land uses, including oil palm and timber plantations. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and managing land for more intensive uses, and the related emissions affect public health by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations and adding to global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Here, we examine emissions from fires associated with land use clearing and land management on the Indonesian island of Sumatra and the sensitivity of this fire activity to interannual meteorological variability. We find ~80% of 2005-2009 Sumatra emissions are associated with degradation or land use maintenance instead of immediate land use conversion, especially in dry years. We estimate Sumatra fire emissions from land use change and maintenance for the next two decades with five scenarios of land use change, the Global Fire Emissions Database Version 3, detailed 1-km2 land use change maps, and MODIS fire radiative power observations. Despite comprising only 16% of the original study area, we predict that 37-48% of future Sumatra emissions from land use change will occur in fuel-rich peatswamps unless this land cover type is protected effectively. This result means that the impact of fires on future air quality and climate in Equatorial Asia will be decided in part by the conservation status given to the remaining peatswamps on Sumatra. Results from this article will be implemented in an atmospheric transport model to quantify the public health impacts from the transport of fire emissions associated with future land use scenarios in Sumatra. PMID:25044917

  15. Land use change exacerbates tropical South American drought by sea surface temperature variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Jung-Eun; Lintner, Benjamin R.; Boyce, C. Kevin; Lawrence, Peter J.

    2011-10-01

    Observations of tropical South American precipitation over the last three decades indicate an increasing rainfall trend to the north and a decreasing trend to the south. Given that tropical South America has experienced significant land use change over the same period, it is of interest to assess the extent to which changing land use may have contributed to the precipitation trends. Simulations of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model (NCAR CAM3) analyzed here suggest a non-negligible impact of land use on this precipitation behavior. While forcing the model by imposed historical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) alone produces a plausible north-south precipitation dipole over South America, NCAR CAM substantially underestimates the magnitude of the observed southern decrease in rainfall unless forcing associated with human-induced land use change is included. The impact of land use change on simulated precipitation occurs primarily during the local dry season and in regions of relatively low annual-mean rainfall, as the incidence of very low monthly-mean accumulations (<10 mm/month) increases significantly when land use change is imposed. Land use change also contributes to the simulated temperature increase by shifting the surface turbulent flux partitioning to favor sensible over latent heating. Moving forward, continuing pressure from deforestation in tropical South America will likely increase the occurrence of significant drought beyond what would be expected by anthropogenic warming alone and in turn compound biodiversity decline from habitat loss and fragmentation.

  16. The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, M. Clare; Singarayer, Joy S.; Valdes, Paul J.; Kaplan, Jed O.; Branch, Nicholas P.

    2016-04-01

    The first agricultural societies were established around 10 ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5 ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies (e.g. Joos et al., 2004; Kaplan et al., 2011; Mitchell et al., 2013) have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP) to the early industrial era (1850 CE). Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i) one in which potential natural vegetation was simulated by Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics (TRIFFID) but without land use changes and (ii) one where the anthropogenic land use model Kaplan and Krumhardt 2010 (KK10; Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011) was us