Science.gov

Sample records for agricultural model intercomparison

  1. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Overview and Progress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Hatfield, J.; Jones, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.

    2012-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is an international effort to assess the state of global agricultural modeling and to understand climate impacts on the agricultural sector. AgMIP connects the climate science, crop modeling, and agricultural economic modeling communities to generate probabilistic projections of current and future climate impacts. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. This presentation will describe the general approach of AgMIP and highlight its findings and activities. AgMIP crop model intercomparisons have been established for wheat (27 models participating), maize (25 models), and rice (15+ models), and are being established for sugarcane, soybean, sorghum/millet, and peanut. In coordination with these pilots, methodologies to utilize weather generators and downscaled climate simulations for agricultural applications are under development. An AgMIP global agricultural economics model intercomparison with participation of 11 international groups is ongoing, and a number of global biophysical models are currently being evaluated for future climate impacts on agricultural lands both as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) and for contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). AgMIP is also organizing regional research efforts, and has already held workshops in South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Europe, and North America. Outcomes from these meetings have informed AgMIP activities, and 10 research teams from Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have been selected for project funding. Additional activities are planned for Australia and East Asia. As the AgMIP research community continues to work towards its goals, three key cross-cutting scientific challenges have emerged and are being

  2. Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project: Phase I Activities by a Global Community of Science (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.; Hatfield, J.; Antle, J. M.; Mutter, C.; Ruane, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. Currently, AgMIP has over 575 participants from more than 45 countries contributing their expertise to over 30 projects and activities. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models with a strong grounding in observations of current agricultural systems around the world. The performance of agricultural models in current climate forms a key basis for our understanding of how crops will respond to future climate changes, and thus AgMIP has a particular focus on extreme heat and drought. Climate, crop model, economics, and information technology protocols are used to guide coordinated AgMIP research activities around the world, along with cross-cutting themes that address aggregation, uncertainty, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other global trends. Research activities include ongoing crop-specific assessments (e.g., maize, wheat, sugarcane, rice) and improvement activities, global gridded crop and economic model intercomparisons, and many other initiatives that allow for the better evaluation of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production and food security around the world. AgMIP activities are improving the representation of crop response to changing carbon dioxide, temperature extremes, and water

  3. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J. M.; Nelson, G. C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.; Asseng, S.; Basso, B.; Ewert, F.; Wallach, D.; Baigorria, G.; Winter, J. M.

    2012-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with

  4. The Agriculture Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenzweig, C.

    2010-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a distributed climate-scenario simulation exercise for historical model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and world agricultural trade modeling groups around the world. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Historical period results will spur model improvement and interaction among major modeling groups, while future period results will lead directly to tests of adaptation and mitigation strategies across a range of scales. AgMIP will consist of a multi-scale impact assessment utilizing the latest methods for climate and agricultural scenario generation. Scenarios and modeling protocols will be distributed on the web, and multi-model results will be collated and analyzed to ensure the widest possible coverage of agricultural crops and regions. AgMIP will place regional changes in agricultural production in a global context that reflects new trading opportunities, imbalances, and shortages in world markets resulting from climate change and other driving forces for food supply. Such projections are essential inputs from the Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation (VIA) research community to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (AR5), now underway, and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. They will set the context for local-scale vulnerability and adaptation studies, supply test scenarios for national-scale development of trade policy instruments, provide critical information on changing supply and demand for water resources, and elucidate interactive effects of climate change and land use change. AgMIP will not only provide crucially-needed new global estimates of how climate change will affect food supply and hunger in the

  5. Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison.

    PubMed

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C; Müller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay; Neumann, Kathleen; Piontek, Franziska; Pugh, Thomas A M; Schmid, Erwin; Stehfest, Elke; Yang, Hong; Jones, James W

    2014-03-01

    Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies. PMID:24344314

  6. Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

    PubMed Central

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Müller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay; Neumann, Kathleen; Piontek, Franziska; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin; Stehfest, Elke; Yang, Hong; Jones, James W.

    2014-01-01

    Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies. PMID:24344314

  7. Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Mueller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay

    2014-01-01

    Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

  8. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Progress and Preliminary Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenzweig, C.

    2011-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a distributed climate-scenario simulation exercise for historical model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and agricultural trade modeling groups around the world. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Recent progress and the current status of AgMIP will be presented, highlighting three areas of activity: preliminary results from crop pilot studies, outcomes from regional workshops, and emerging scientific challenges. AgMIP crop modeling efforts are being led by pilot studies, which have been established for wheat, maize, rice, and sugarcane. These crop-specific initiatives have proven instrumental in testing and contributing to AgMIP protocols, as well as creating preliminary results for aggregation and input to agricultural trade models. Regional workshops are being held to encourage collaborations and set research activities in motion for key agricultural areas. The first of these workshops was hosted by Embrapa and UNICAMP and held in Campinas, Brazil. Outcomes from this meeting have informed crop modeling research activities within South America, AgMIP protocols, and future regional workshops. Several scientific challenges have emerged and are currently being addressed by AgMIP researchers. Areas of particular interest include geospatial weather generation, ensemble methods for climate scenarios and crop models, spatial aggregation of field-scale yields to regional and global production, and characterization of future changes in climate variability.

  9. Introduction The Role of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Hillel, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Climate impacts on agriculture are of increasing concern in both the scientific and policy communities because of the need to ensure food security for a growing population. A special challenge is posed by the changes in the frequency and intensity of heat-waves, droughts, and episodic rainstorms already underway in many parts of the world. Changes in production are directly linked to such variations in temperature and precipitation during the growing season, and often to offseason changes in weather affecting soil-water storage and availability to crops. This is not an isolated problem but one of both global and regional importance, because of impacts on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers as well as consequences for the world food trade system. This two-part set the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments is the first to be entirely devoted to AgMIP (www.agmip.org). AgMIP is a major international research program focused on climate change and agriculture. The goal of the two parts is to advance the field by providing detailed information on new simulation techniques and assessments being conducted by this program. It presents information about new methods of global and regional integrated assessment, results from agricultural regions, and adaptation strategies for maintaining food security under changing climate conditions.

  10. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project: Phase I Activities by a Global Community of Science. Chapter 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Jones, James W.; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Antle, John M.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Mutter, Carolyn Z.

    2015-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) was founded in 2010. Its mission is to improve substantially the characterization of world food security as affected by climate variability and change, and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. The objectives of AgMIP are to: Incorporate state-of-the-art climate, crop/livestock, and agricultural economic model improvements into coordinated multi-model regional and global assessments of future climate impacts and adaptation and other key aspects of the food system. Utilize multiple models, scenarios, locations, crops/livestock, and participants to explore uncertainty and the impact of data and methodological choices. Collaborate with regional experts in agronomy, animal sciences, economics, and climate to build a strong basis for model applications, addressing key climate related questions and sustainable intensification farming systems. Improve scientific and adaptive capacity in modeling for major agricultural regions in the developing and developed world, with a focus on vulnerable regions. Improve agricultural data and enhance data-sharing based on their intercomparison and evaluation using best scientific practices. Develop modeling frameworks to identify and evaluate promising adaptation technologies and policies and to prioritize strategies.

  11. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Town Hall

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Kyle, Page; Basso, Bruno; Winter, Jonathan; Asseng, Senthold

    2015-01-01

    AgMIP (www.agmip.org) is an international community of climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts working to further the development and application of multi-model, multi-scale, multi-disciplinary agricultural models that can inform policy and decision makers around the world. This meeting will engage the AGU community by providing a brief overview of AgMIP, in particular its new plans for a Coordinated Global and Regional Assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security for AR6. This Town Hall will help identify opportunities for participants to become involved in AgMIP and its 30+ activities.

  12. Representative Agricultural Pathways: A Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Agricultural Model Inter-comparison, Improvement, Climate Impact Assessment and Stakeholder Engagement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Claessens, L.; Nelson, G. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.; Vervoort, J.

    2013-12-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment that is logically consistent across local, regional and global scales. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts are being developed. Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are designed to extend global pathways to provide the detail needed for global and regional assessment of agricultural systems. In addition, research by the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) shows that RAPs provide a powerful way to engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results. RAPs are based on the integrated assessment framework developed by AgMIP. This framework shows that both bio-physical and socio-economic drivers are essential components of agricultural pathways and logically precede the definition of adaptation and mitigation scenarios that embody associated capabilities and challenges. This approach is based on a trans-disciplinary process for designing pathways and then translating them into parameter sets for bio-physical and economic models that are components of agricultural integrated assessments of climate impact, adaptation and mitigation. RAPs must be designed to be part of a logically consistent set of drivers and outcomes from global to regional and local. Global RAPs are designed to be consistent with higher-level global socio-economic pathways, but add key agricultural drivers such as agricultural growth trends that are not specified in more general pathways, as illustrated in a recent inter-comparison of global agricultural models. To create pathways at regional or local scales, further detail is needed. At this level, teams of scientists and other experts with knowledge of the agricultural systems and regions work together through a step-wise process. Experiences

  13. Titan atmospheric models intercomparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pernot, P.

    2008-09-01

    Several groups over the world have developed independently models of the photochemistry of Titan. The Cassini mission reveals daily that the chemical complexity is beyond our expectations e. g. observation of heavy positive and negative ions..., and the models are updated accordingly. At this stage, there is no consensus on the various input parameters, and it becomes increasingly difficult to compare outputs form different models. An ISSI team of experts of those models will be gathered shortly to proceed to an intercomparison, i.e. to assess how the models behave, given identical sets of inputs (collectively defined). Expected discrepancies will have to be elucidated and reduced. This intercomparison will also be an occasion to estimate explicitly the importance of various physicalchemical processes on model predictions versus observations. More robust and validated models are expected from this study for the interpretation of Titanrelated data.

  14. Solar radiation management impacts on agriculture in China: A case study in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, Lili; Robock, Alan; Cole, Jason; Curry, Charles L.; Ji, Duoying; Jones, Andy; Kravitz, Ben; Moore, John C.; Muri, Helene; Niemeier, Ulrike; Singh, Balwinder; Tilmes, Simone; Watanabe, Shingo; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2014-07-01

    Geoengineering via solar radiation management could affect agricultural productivity due to changes in temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. To study rice and maize production changes in China, we used results from 10 climate models participating in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G2 scenario to force the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model. G2 prescribes an insolation reduction to balance a 1% a-1 increase in CO2 concentration (1pctCO2) for 50 years. We first evaluated the DSSAT model using 30 years (1978-2007) of daily observed weather records and agriculture practices for 25 major agriculture provinces in China and compared the results to observations of yield. We then created three sets of climate forcing for 42 locations in China for DSSAT from each climate model experiment: (1) 1pctCO2, (2) G2, and (3) G2 with constant CO2 concentration (409 ppm) and compared the resulting agricultural responses. In the DSSAT simulations: (1) Without changing management practices, the combined effect of simulated climate changes due to geoengineering and CO2 fertilization during the last 15 years of solar reduction would change rice production in China by -3.0 ± 4.0 megaton (Mt) (2.4 ± 4.0%) as compared with 1pctCO2 and increase Chinese maize production by 18.1 ± 6.0 Mt (13.9 ± 5.9%). (2) The termination of geoengineering shows negligible impacts on rice production but a 19.6 Mt (11.9%) reduction of maize production as compared to the last 15 years of geoengineering. (3) The CO2 fertilization effect compensates for the deleterious impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation due to geoengineering on rice production, increasing rice production by 8.6 Mt. The elevated CO2 concentration enhances maize production in G2, contributing 7.7 Mt (42.4%) to the total increase. Using the DSSAT crop model, virtually all of the climate models agree on the sign of the responses, even though

  15. Climate and Agriculture: Model Inter-Comparison for Evaluating the Uncertainties in Climate Change Impact Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geethalakshmi, V.; Lakshmanan, A.; Bhuvaneswari, K.; Rajalakshmi, D.; Sekhar, N. U.; Anbhazhagan, R.; Gurusamy, L.

    2011-12-01

    Presence of large uncertainties in climate models (CM) and in future emission scenarios makes it difficult to predict the long-term climate changes at regional scales. Climate models do a reasonable job of capturing the large-scale aspects of current climate but still contain systematic model errors adding uncertainty to the future projections. Using CM outputs in impact models also cascade the uncertainty in climate change research. A study was undertaken with the objective of evaluating the uncertainty of climate change predictions by comparing the outputs from Regional Climate Models (RCM) and their resultant impact on rice productivity in Bhavani basin of Tamil Nadu, India. Current and future climate data were developed using RCMs viz., RegCM3 and PRECIS considering SRES A1B scenario for 130 years (1971-2100). The RCM outputs were used in DSSAT and EPIC models for assessing the impact of climate change. Results were compared to assess the magnitude of uncertainty in predicting the future climate and the resultant impacts. Comparison of predicted current climate with observed data indicated that RegCM3 under estimates maximum temperature by 1.8 °C while, PRECIS over estimates by 1.1°C over 40 years (1971 - 2010). The minimum temperature was under estimated by both the models, but with varying magnitude (3.8 °C for RegCM3 and 1 °C for PRECIS). RegCM3 over predicted rainfall (14 %), in contrast, PRECIS underpredicted (30.9 %) the same. Future climate projections indicated gradual increase in maximum and minimum temperatures with progress of time. Increase of maximum and minimum temperatures in PRECIS was 3.7oC and 4.2oC respectively and in RegCM3, it was 3.1oC and 3.7oC by 2100. No clear trend could be observed for rainfall other than increase in the quantum compared to current rainfall. Rice yield simulated over Bhavani basin for current and future climate by DSSAT, without CO2 fertilization effect, indicated reduction of 356 and 217 Kg ha-1decade-1 for

  16. An intercomparison of models used to simulate the short-range atmospheric dispersion of agricultural ammonia emissions

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ammonia emitted into the atmosphere from agricultural sources can have an impact on nearby sensitive ecosystems either through elevated ambient concentrations or dry/wet deposition to vegetation and soil surfaces. Short-range atmospheric dispersion models are often used to assess...

  17. Models and Measurements Intercomparison 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Park, Jae H. (Editor); Ko, Malcolm K. W. (Editor); Jackman, Charles H. (Editor); Plumb, R. Alan (Editor); Kaye, Jack A. (Editor); Sage, Karen H. (Editor)

    1999-01-01

    Models and Measurement Intercomparison II (MM II) summarizes the intercomparison of results from model simulations and observations of stratospheric species. Representatives from twenty-three modeling groups using twenty-nine models participated in these MM II exercises between 1996 and 1999. Twelve of the models were two- dimensional zonal-mean models while seventeen were three-dimensional models. This was an international effort as seven were from outside the United States. Six transport experiments and five chemistry experiments were designed for various models. Models participating in the transport experiments performed simulations of chemically inert tracers providing diagnostics for transport. The chemistry experiments involved simulating the distributions of chemically active trace cases including ozone. The model run conditions for dynamics and chemistry were prescribed in order to minimize the factors that caused differences in the models. The report includes a critical review of the results by the participants and a discussion of the causes of differences between modeled and measured results as well as between results from different models, A sizable effort went into preparation of the database of the observations. This included a new climatology for ozone. The report should help in evaluating the results from various predictive models for assessing humankind perturbations of the stratosphere.

  18. Intercomparison of atmospheric dispersion models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caputo, Marcelo; Giménez, Marcelo; Schlamp, Miguel

    An intercomparison between Gaussian, Gaussian segmented plumes and Lagrangian codes is presented. The codes chosen for the simulation of a gaseous emission under real meteorological conditions were AERMOD, HPDM, PCCOSYMA and HYSPLIT. The emission source was located at 37.35°N and 78.24°W in a flat terrain. The meteorological data were obtained from RAMS code output. The AERMOD and HPDM meteorological preprocessors results were analyzed. The main differences found are originated in the sensible heat flux (SHTF) and u* (friction velocity) computation, whose values impact directly on the Monin-Obukov length and mixing height calculation. These differences and the strong dependence of the results on them indicate that more development should still be done in order to improve the algorithms for the meteorological variables calculations, mainly during stable conditions. A more realistic description is performed by the segmented Gaussian plume model (PCCOSYMA) respect to the Gaussian ones (AERMOD, HPDM) because it limits the plume length along the wind direction. It also predicts reasonably well the contaminant cloud rotation respect to the Lagrangian code (HYSPLIT) as no major difference between the wind field and the wind at the source location is present in the analyzed case. During the stable hours, HPDM calculates the most stable situation and the lowest mixing heights. Because of this there is a considerable discrepancy in the maximum ground level concentration respect to the other codes. While during the unstable hours HPDM calculates the most unstable situation, nevertheless the maximum ground level concentrations predicted by all the Gaussian and Lagrangian codes are comparable.

  19. Inter-comparison of subglacial hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Fleurian, Basile; Werder, Mauro

    2016-04-01

    The recent emergence of a number of subglacial hydrological models allows us to obtain theoretical insights on basal processes; for instance on the coupling between water pressure and the sliding of glaciers. In ice-flow models, it is relatively clear what the simulated physics ought to be. Conversely, the physical processes incorporated into subglacial hydrology models are diverse as it is yet unclear which ones are of relevance for a particular setting. An inter-comparison of hydrology models will therefore need a somewhat different approach to the one used in the many ice-flow model inter-comparisons (EISMINT, ISMIP, etc.). Here, we present a set of experiments that will allow the comparison of the behavior of different hydrology models. The design of the benchmark aims at allowing the participation of a wide range of models based on different physical approaches. We aim at evaluating the models with a focus on the effective pressure which has the most impact on the dynamics of glaciers. The aim of this inter-comparison is to provide modellers with the necessary data to make an informed decision on which subglacial hydrology model to use for a particular study.

  20. Why Do Global Long-term Scenarios for Agriculture Differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison

    SciTech Connect

    von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Cai, Yongxia; Calvin, Katherine V.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Nelson, Gerald; Sands, Ronald; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; van Meijl, Hans

    2013-12-02

    Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. Ten global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socio-economic, climate change and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Results suggest that, once general assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines, and that several common conclusions are possible. Nonetheless, differences in basic model parameters, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. This holds for both the common reference scenario and for the various shocks applied. We conclude that agro-economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross-fertilize analyses at different scales.

  1. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haywood, Alan; Dowsett, Harry; Dolan, Aisling; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark; Hunter, Stephen; Lunt, Daniel; Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich

    2016-04-01

    The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, and their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate, and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilised for climate model experiments in Phase 2. Following on from PlioMIP Phase 1, Phase 2 will continue to be a mechanism for sampling structural uncertainty within climate models. However, Phase 1 demonstrated the requirement to better understand boundary condition uncertainties as well as uncertainty in the methodologies used for data-model comparison. Therefore, our strategy for Phase 2 is to utilise state-of-the-art boundary conditions that have emerged over the last 5 years. These include a new palaeogeographic reconstruction, detailing ocean bathymetry and land/ice surface topography. The ice surface topography is built upon the lessons learned from offline ice sheet modelling studies. Land surface cover has been enhanced by recent additions of Pliocene soils and lakes. Atmospheric reconstructions of palaeo-CO2 are emerging on orbital timescales and these are also incorporated into PlioMIP Phase 2. New records of surface and sea surface temperature change are being produced that will be more temporally consistent with the boundary conditions and forcings used within models. Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.

  2. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haywood, Alan; Dowsett, Harry; Dolan, Aisling; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark; Lunt, Daniel; Salzmann, Ulrich

    2015-04-01

    The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a coordinated international climate modelling initiative designed to understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, and their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP operates under the umbrella of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), which examines multiple intervals in Earth history, the consistency of model predictions in simulating these intervals and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved in geological climate archives. PlioMIP was initiated in 2008 and is closely aligned with the U.S. Geological Survey project known as PRISM (Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping). PRISM has spent more than 25 years reconstructing and understanding mid-Pliocene climate (~3.3 to 3 million years ago), as well producing boundary condition data sets suitable for use with numerical climate models. The first phase of the PlioMIP (PlioMIP1: 2008-2014) resulted in the most complete analysis to date of the Pliocene climate. This included examination of large-scale features of global climate, detailed analyses of Pliocene ocean circulation and monsoon behaviour, and the ability of models to reproduce regional climate patterns reconstructed from both marine and terrestrial archives. The lessons learned from PlioMIP1 facilitated a revision of data and modelling approaches towards the understanding of the mid Pliocene. PlioMIP2 has now been launched, and includes significant improvements to many of the Pliocene palaeogeograhic boundary conditions used for driving climate models (new land/sea mask, topography, bathymetry and ice sheet reconstructions). Within Phase 2 modelling groups have the option of using dynamic global vegetation models to predict (rather than prescribe) land cover, and a broader portfolio of model experiments has been proposed to support efforts to better understand the Pliocene, as well as to use the Pliocene as a means

  3. Intercomparison of hydrologic processes in global climate models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, W. K.-M.; Sud, Y. C.; Kim, J.-H.

    1995-01-01

    In this report, we address the intercomparison of precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and surface hydrologic forcing (P-E) for 23 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) general circulation models (GCM's) including relevant observations, over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The intercomparison includes global and hemispheric means, latitudinal profiles, selected area means for the tropics and extratropics, ocean and land, respectively. In addition, we have computed anomaly pattern correlations among models and observations for different seasons, harmonic analysis for annual and semiannual cycles, and rain-rate frequency distribution. We also compare the joint influence of temperature and precipitation on local climate using the Koeppen climate classification scheme.

  4. Atmospheric model intercomparison project: Monsoon simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Sperber, K.R.; Palmer, T.N.

    1994-06-01

    The simulation of monsoons, in particular the Indian summer monsoon, has proven to be a critical test of a general circulation model`s ability to simulate tropical climate and variability. The Monsoon Numerical Experimentation Group has begun to address questions regarding the predictability of monsoon extremes, in particular conditions associated with El Nino and La Nina conditions that tend to be associated with drought and flood conditions over the Indian subcontinent, through a series of seasonal integrations using analyzed initial conditions from successive days in 1987 and 1988. In this paper the authors present an analysis of simulations associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), a coordinated effort to simulate the 1979--1988 decade using standardized boundary conditions with approximately 30 atmospheric general circulation models. The 13 models analyzed to date are listed. Using monthly mean data from these simulations they have calculated indices of precipitation and wind shear in an effort to access the performance of the models over the course of the AMIP decade.

  5. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Boer, George J.; Covey, Curt; Latif, Mojib; Stouffer, Ronald J.

    2000-02-01

    The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) was established to study and intercompare climate simulations made with coupled ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere-land GCMs. There are two main phases (CMIP1 and CMIP2), which study, respectively, 1) the ability of models to simulate current climate, and 2) model simulations of climate change due to an idealized change in forcing (a 1% per year CO2 increase). Results from a number of CMIP projects were reported at the first CMIP Workshop held in Melbourne, Australia, in October 1998. Some recent advances in global coupled modeling related to CMIP were also reported. Presentations were based on preliminary unpublished results. Key outcomes from the workshop were that 1) many observed aspects of climate variability are simulated in global coupled models including the North Atlantic oscillation and its linkages to North Atlantic SSTs, El Niño-like events, and monsoon interannual variability; 2) the amplitude of both high- and low-frequency global mean surface temperature variability in many global coupled models is less than that observed, with the former due in part to simulated ENSO in the models being generally weaker than observed, and the latter likely to be at least partially due to the uncertainty in the estimates of past radiative forcing; 3) an El Niño-like pattern in the mean SST response with greater surface warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific than the western equatorial Pacific is found by a number of models in global warming climate change experiments, but other models have a more spatially uniform or even a La Niña-like, response; 4) flux adjustment, by definition, improves the simulation of mean present-day climate over oceans, does not guarantee a drift-free climate, but can produce a stable base state in some models to enable very long term (1000 yr and longer) integrations-in these models it does not appear to have a major effect on model processes or model responses to increasing CO2; and 5) recent

  6. RESULTS FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN MERCURY MODEL INTER-COMPARISON STUDY (NAMMIS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    A North American Mercury Model Intercomparison Study (NAMMIS) has been conducted to build upon the findings from previous mercury model intercomparison in Europe. In the absence of mercury measurement networks sufficient for model evaluation, model developers continue to rely on...

  7. Contribution towards statistical intercomparison of general circulation models

    SciTech Connect

    Sengupta, S.; Boyle, J.

    1995-06-01

    The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) of the World Climate Research Programme`s Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) is an ambitious attempt to comprehensively intercompare atmospheric General Circulation Models (GCMs). The participants in AMIP simulate the global atmosphere for the decade 1979 to 1988 using, a common solar constant and Carbon Dioxide(CO{sub 2}) concentration and a common monthly averaged sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice data set. In this work we attempt to present a statistical framework to address the difficult task of model intercomparison and verification.

  8. THE NORTH AMERICAN MERCURY MODEL INTER-COMPARISON STUDY (NAMMIS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper describes the North American Mercury Model Inter-comparison Study (NAMMIS). The NAMMIS is an effort to apply atmospheric Hg models in a tightly constrained testing environment with a focus on North America. With each model using the same input data sets for initial co...

  9. The global gridded crop model intercomparison: Data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0)

    SciTech Connect

    Elliott, J.; Müller, C.; Deryng, D.; Chryssanthacopoulos, J.; Boote, K. J.; Büchner, M.; Foster, I.; Glotter, M.; Heinke, J.; Iizumi, T.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Mueller, N. D.; Ray, D. K.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.; Sheffield, J.

    2015-02-11

    We present protocols and input data for Phase 1 of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison, a project of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). The project consist of global simulations of yields, phenologies, and many land-surface fluxes using 12–15 modeling groups for many crops, climate forcing data sets, and scenarios over the historical period from 1948 to 2012. The primary outcomes of the project include (1) a detailed comparison of the major differences and similarities among global models commonly used for large-scale climate impact assessment, (2) an evaluation of model and ensemble hindcasting skill, (3) quantification of key uncertainties from climate input data, model choice, and other sources, and (4) a multi-model analysis of the agricultural impacts of large-scale climate extremes from the historical record.

  10. The global gridded crop model intercomparison: Data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0)

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Elliott, J.; Müller, C.; Deryng, D.; Chryssanthacopoulos, J.; Boote, K. J.; Büchner, M.; Foster, I.; Glotter, M.; Heinke, J.; Iizumi, T.; et al

    2015-02-11

    We present protocols and input data for Phase 1 of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison, a project of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). The project consist of global simulations of yields, phenologies, and many land-surface fluxes using 12–15 modeling groups for many crops, climate forcing data sets, and scenarios over the historical period from 1948 to 2012. The primary outcomes of the project include (1) a detailed comparison of the major differences and similarities among global models commonly used for large-scale climate impact assessment, (2) an evaluation of model and ensemble hindcasting skill, (3) quantification ofmore » key uncertainties from climate input data, model choice, and other sources, and (4) a multi-model analysis of the agricultural impacts of large-scale climate extremes from the historical record.« less

  11. INTERCOMPARISON STUDY OF ATMOSPHERIC MERCURY MODELS: 1. COMPARISON OF MODELS WITH SHORT-TERM MEASUREMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Five regional scale models with a horizontal domain covering the European continent and its surrounding seas, one hemispheric and one global scale model participated in an atmospheric mercury modelling intercomparison study. Model-predicted concentrations in ambient air were comp...

  12. GABLS4: a model intercomparison study in extremely stable conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bazile, Eric; Le Moigne, Patrick; Couvreux, Fleur

    2016-04-01

    In polar regions and under stable stratifications, models presents large biases that are dependent upon the parametrizations used for the surface and boundary layers (Holtslag et al., 2013). The GABLS4 inter-comparison, launched in summer 2014, aims to study the diurnal cycles over the Antarctic Plateau, focussing on the boundary layer characteristics and the coupling with the surface in strong stability. For this, the observation site of Dome C on the Antarctic Plateau was chosen mainly for two reasons: the availability of the on-site measurements from a 45-m tower and a homogeneous surface with a low conductivity such as snow on a flat topography. The inter-comparison will consist of 3 inter-comparisons : Single Column Model (SCM), Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and land-snow model (LSM). It is organized in two steps. The first one is dedicated to the LSM and the SCM with an interactive surface (snow) scheme. Then, in the second one, the observed surface temperature will be prescribed in the SCM and in the LES models. A large variability in surface fluxes was highlighted in all types of simulations with variations about 30W/m2 during daytime and night-time which is about 100% of the ensemble mean value. After a rapid overview of the setup, we will focus on the SCM results and how the results are sensitive to the surface characteristics and the vertical resolution.

  13. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elliott, J. W.

    2013-12-01

    In 2012 AgMIP led a Global Gridded Crop Model (GGCM) Intercomparison fast-track project in coordination with the PIK-led Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). This fast-track included 7 GGCMs and updated the state of knowledge on climate change vulnerabilities and impacts using modern global high-resolution models driven by climate model output from CMIP5. This fast-track culminated with the January 31st submission of 6 papers to a PNAS special issue. Initial results indicate the potential of global gridded crop model simulations and the need to further improve understanding of mechanisms, assumptions, and uncertainties of model design and execution; these are best addressed in a coordinated model intercomparison project at continental and global scale. In Spring 2013, we developed a new set of protocols for the next phase of the GGCMI, which will run for 3 years and include 3 overlapping stages of increasing duration: 1) Historical simulation and model evaluation 2) Analysis of model sensitivity to CTWN (carbon, temperature, water, and nitrogen) 3) Coordinated regional and global climate assessment In this talk we will summarize some key finding from the 2012 fast-track assessment and present preliminary results from Phase 2.1: Historical simulation and model evaluation. In this stage, models are being run using various observation and reanalysis-based historical weather products so that they can be evaluated over the historical period globally and in various key interest regions, so that inter-model differences can be compared against the variation induced by the choice of historical data product, and so that historical extreme events can be evaluated in a multi-model framework. The project currently includes 17 modeling groups from 11 countries, along with several other major data partners, and simulations are being performed over the Summer and Fall of 2013.

  14. Two-Dimensional Intercomparison of Stratospheric Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jackman, Charles H. (Editor); Seals, Robert K., Jr. (Editor); Prather, Michael J. (Editor)

    1989-01-01

    A detailed record is provided for the examination of fundamental differences in photochemistry and transport among atmospheric models. The results of 16 different modeling groups are presented for several model experiments.

  15. Results of the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pattyn, F.; Schoof, C.; Perichon, L.; Hindmarsh, R. C. A.; Bueler, E.; de Fleurian, B.; Durand, G.; Gagliardini, O.; Gladstone, R.; Goldberg, D.; Gudmundsson, G. H.; Huybrechts, P.; Lee, V.; Nick, F. M.; Payne, A. J.; Pollard, D.; Rybak, O.; Saito, F.; Vieli, A.

    2012-05-01

    Predictions of marine ice-sheet behaviour require models that are able to robustly simulate grounding line migration. We present results of an intercomparison exercise for marine ice-sheet models. Verification is effected by comparison with approximate analytical solutions for flux across the grounding line using simplified geometrical configurations (no lateral variations, no effects of lateral buttressing). Unique steady state grounding line positions exist for ice sheets on a downward sloping bed, while hysteresis occurs across an overdeepened bed, and stable steady state grounding line positions only occur on the downward-sloping sections. Models based on the shallow ice approximation, which does not resolve extensional stresses, do not reproduce the approximate analytical results unless appropriate parameterizations for ice flux are imposed at the grounding line. For extensional-stress resolving "shelfy stream" models, differences between model results were mainly due to the choice of spatial discretization. Moving grid methods were found to be the most accurate at capturing grounding line evolution, since they track the grounding line explicitly. Adaptive mesh refinement can further improve accuracy, including fixed grid models that generally perform poorly at coarse resolution. Fixed grid models, with nested grid representations of the grounding line, are able to generate accurate steady state positions, but can be inaccurate over transients. Only one full-Stokes model was included in the intercomparison, and consequently the accuracy of shelfy stream models as approximations of full-Stokes models remains to be determined in detail, especially during transients.

  16. Results of the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pattyn, F.; Schoof, C.; Perichon, L.; Hindmarsh, R. C. A.; Bueler, E.; de Fleurian, B.; Durand, G.; Gagliardini, O.; Gladstone, R.; Goldberg, D.; Gudmundsson, G. H.; Lee, V.; Nick, F. M.; Payne, A. J.; Pollard, D.; Rybak, O.; Saito, F.; Vieli, A.

    2012-01-01

    Predictions of marine ice-sheet behaviour require models that are able to robustly simulate grounding line migration. We present results of an intercomparison exercise for marine ice-sheet models. Verification is effected by comparison with approximate analytical solutions for flux across the grounding line using simplified geometrical configurations (no lateral variations, no effects of lateral buttressing). Unique steady-state grounding line positions exist for ice sheets on a downward sloping bed, while hysteresis occurs across an overdeepened bed, and stable steady state grounding line positions only occur on the downward-sloping sections. Models based on the shallow ice approximation, which does not resolve extensional stresses, do not reproduce the approximate analytical results unless appropriate parameterizations for ice flux are imposed at the grounding line. For extensional-stress resolving "shelfy stream" models, differences between model results were mainly due to the choice of spatial discretization. Moving grid methods were found to be the most accurate at capturing grounding line evolution, since they track the grounding line explicitly. Adaptive mesh refinement can further improve accuracy, including in fixed-grid models that generally perform poorly at coarse resolution. Fixed grid models with nested grid representations of the grounding line are able to generate accurate steady-state positions, but can be inaccurate over transients. Only one full Stokes model was included in the intercomparison, and consequently the accuracy of shelfy stream models as approximations of full Stokes models remains to be determined in detail, especially during transients.

  17. Model Intercomparison of Indirect Aerosol Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Penner, J. E.; Quaas, J.; Storelvmo, T.; Takemura, T.; Boucher, O.; Guo, H.; Kirkevag, A.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Seland, O.

    2006-01-01

    Modeled differences in predicted effects are increasingly used to help quantify the uncertainty of these effects. Here, we examine modeled differences in the aerosol indirect effect in a series of experiments that help to quantify how and why model-predicted aerosol indirect forcing varies between models. The experiments start with an experiment in which aerosol concentrations, the parameterization of droplet concentrations and the autoconversion scheme are all specified and end with an experiment that examines the predicted aerosol indirect forcing when only aerosol sources are specified. Although there are large differences in the predicted liquid water path among the models, the predicted aerosol first indirect effect for the first experiment is rather similar, about -0.6 W/sq m to -0.7 W/sq m. Changes to the autoconversion scheme can lead to large changes in the liquid water path of the models and to the response of the liquid water path to changes in aerosols. Adding an autoconversion scheme that depends on the droplet concentration caused a larger (negative) change in net outgoing shortwave radiation compared to the 1st indirect effect, and the increase varied from only 22% to more than a factor of three. The change in net shortwave forcing in the models due to varying the autoconversion scheme depends on the liquid water content of the clouds as well as their predicted droplet concentrations, and both increases and decreases in the net shortwave forcing can occur when autoconversion schemes are changed. The parameterization of cloud fraction within models is not sensitive to the aerosol concentration, and, therefore, the response of the modeled cloud fraction within the present models appears to be smaller than that which would be associated with model "noise". The prediction of aerosol concentrations, given a fixed set of sources, leads to some of the largest differences in the predicted aerosol indirect radiative forcing among the models, with values of

  18. Ecological Models: Agricultural Models

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The agricultural research community is faced with a wide array of complex problems to solve. Continued population increases in developing countries require increased agricultural production, while agroecosystems are being stressed and negatively impacted by greater use of water and agrochemicals. F...

  19. IPRT polarized radiative transfer model intercomparison project - Phase A

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emde, Claudia; Barlakas, Vasileios; Cornet, Céline; Evans, Frank; Korkin, Sergey; Ota, Yoshifumi; Labonnote, Laurent C.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Macke, Andreas; Mayer, Bernhard; Wendisch, Manfred

    2015-10-01

    The polarization state of electromagnetic radiation scattered by atmospheric particles such as aerosols, cloud droplets, or ice crystals contains much more information about the optical and microphysical properties than the total intensity alone. For this reason an increasing number of polarimetric observations are performed from space, from the ground and from aircraft. Polarized radiative transfer models are required to interpret and analyse these measurements and to develop retrieval algorithms exploiting polarimetric observations. In the last years a large number of new codes have been developed, mostly for specific applications. Benchmark results are available for specific cases, but not for more sophisticated scenarios including polarized surface reflection and multi-layer atmospheres. The International Polarized Radiative Transfer (IPRT) working group of the International Radiation Commission (IRC) has initiated a model intercomparison project in order to fill this gap. This paper presents the results of the first phase A of the IPRT project which includes ten test cases, from simple setups with only one layer and Rayleigh scattering to rather sophisticated setups with a cloud embedded in a standard atmosphere above an ocean surface. All scenarios in the first phase A of the intercomparison project are for a one-dimensional plane-parallel model geometry. The commonly established benchmark results are available at the IPRT website.

  20. The North American Mercury Model Intercomparison Study (NAMMIS). Study Description and Model-to-Model Comparison

    EPA Science Inventory

    This manuscript provides a description of the North American Mercury Model Intercomparison Study (NAMMIS) and results obtained from that study. The NAMMIS was conducted by EPA/NERL and involved a number of public and private research organizations developing numerical models of ...

  1. An Intercomparison of 2-D Models Within a Common Framework

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weisenstein, Debra K.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Scott, Courtney J.; Jackman, Charles H.; Fleming, Eric L.; Considine, David B.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Connell, Peter S.; Rotman, Douglas A.; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    A model intercomparison among the Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) 2-D model, the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) 2-D model, and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 2-D model allows us to separate differences due to model transport from those due to the model's chemical formulation. This is accomplished by constructing two hybrid models incorporating the transport parameters of the GSFC and LLNL models within the AER model framework. By comparing the results from the native models (AER and e.g. GSFC) with those from the hybrid model (e.g. AER chemistry with GSFC transport), differences due to chemistry and transport can be identified. For the analysis, we examined an inert tracer whose emission pattern is based on emission from a High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) fleet; distributions of trace species in the 2015 atmosphere; and the response of stratospheric ozone to an HSCT fleet. Differences in NO(y) in the upper stratosphere are found between models with identical transport, implying different model representations of atmospheric chemical processes. The response of O3 concentration to HSCT aircraft emissions differs in the models from both transport-dominated differences in the HSCT-induced perturbations of H2O and NO(y) as well as from differences in the model represent at ions of O3 chemical processes. The model formulations of cold polar processes are found to be the most significant factor in creating large differences in the calculated ozone perturbations

  2. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)

    SciTech Connect

    Meehl, G A; Covey, C; McAvaney, B; Latif, M; Stouffer, R J

    2004-08-05

    The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is designed to allow study and intercomparison of multi-model simulations of present-day and future climate. The latter are represented by idealized forcing of compounded 1% per year CO2 increase to the time of CO2 doubling near year 70 in simulations with global coupled models that contain, typically, components representing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface. Results from CMIP diagnostic subprojects were presented at the Second CMIP Workshop held at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, in September, 2003. Significant progress in diagnosing and understanding results from global coupled models has been made since the First CMIP Workshop in Melbourne, Australia in 1998. For example, the issue of flux adjustment is slowly fading as more and more models obtain stable multi-century surface climates without them. El Nino variability, usually about half the observed amplitude in the previous generation of coupled models, is now more accurately simulated in the present generation of global coupled models, though there are still biases in simulating the patterns of maximum variability. Typical resolutions of atmospheric component models contained in coupled models is now usually around 2.5 degrees latitude-longitude, with the ocean components often having about twice the atmospheric model resolution, with even higher resolution in the equatorial tropics. Some new-generation coupled models have atmospheric model resolutions of around 1.5 degrees latitude-longitude. Modeling groups now routinely run the CMIP control and 1% CO2 simulations in addition to 20th and 21st century climate simulations with a variety of forcings (e.g. volcanoes, solar variability, anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, ozone, and greenhouse gases (GHGs), with the anthropogenic forcings for future climate as well). However, persistent systematic errors noted in previous generations of global coupled models still are present

  3. Three models intercomparison for Quantitative Precipitation Forecast over Calabria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Federico, S.; Avolio, E.; Bellecci, C.; Colacino, M.; Lavagnini, A.; Accadia, C.; Mariani, S.; Casaioli, M.

    2004-11-01

    In the framework of the National Project “Sviluppo di distretti industriali per le Osservazioni della Terra” (Development of Industrial Districts for Earth Observations) funded by MIUR (Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca Scientifica --Italian Ministry of the University and Scientific Research) two operational mesoscale models were set-up for Calabria, the southernmost tip of the Italian peninsula. Models are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) and MM5 (Mesoscale Modeling 5) that are run every day at Crati scrl to produce weather forecast over Calabria (http://www.crati.it). This paper reports model intercomparison for Quantitative Precipitation Forecast evaluated for a 20 month period from 1th October 2000 to 31th May 2002. In addition to RAMS and MM5 outputs, QBOLAM rainfall fields are available for the period selected and included in the comparison. This model runs operationally at “Agenzia per la Protezione dell'Ambiente e per i Servizi Tecnici”. Forecasts are verified comparing models outputs with raingauge data recorded by the regional meteorological network, which has 75 raingauges. Large-scale forcing is the same for all models considered and differences are due to physical/numerical parameterizations and horizontal resolutions. QPFs show differences between models. Largest differences are for BIA compared to the other considered scores. Performances decrease with increasing forecast time for RAMS and MM5, whilst QBOLAM scores better for second day forecast.

  4. AGRICULTURAL SIMULATION MODEL (AGSIM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    AGSIM is a large-scale econometric simulation model of regional crop and national livestock production in the United States. The model was initially developed to analyze the aggregate economic impacts of a wide variety issues facing agriculture, such as technological change, pest...

  5. Interannual climate variability seen in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brierley, C. M.

    2014-09-01

    Following proxy observations of weakened temperature gradients along the Equator in the early Pliocene, there has been much speculation about Pliocene climate variability. A major advance for our knowledge about the later Pliocene has been the coordination of modelling efforts through the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Here the changes in interannual modes of sea surface temperature variability will be presented across PlioMIP. Previously model ensembles have shown little consensus in the response of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to imposed forcings - either for the past or future. The PlioMIP ensemble, however, shows surprising agreement with eight models simulating reduced variability and only one model indicating no change. The Pliocene's robustly weaker ENSO also saw a shift to lower frequencies. Model ensembles focussed at a wide variety of forcing scenarios have not yet shown this level of coherency. Nonetheless the PlioMIP ensemble does not show a robust response of either ENSO flavour or sea surface temperature variability in the Tropical Indian and North Pacific Oceans. Existing suggestions of ENSO properties linked to changes in zonal temperature gradient, seasonal cycle and the elevation of the Andes Mountains are investigated, yet prove insufficient to explain the coherent response. The reason for this surprisingly coherent signal warrants further investigation.

  6. Interannual climate variability seen in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brierley, C. M.

    2015-03-01

    Following reconstructions suggesting weakened temperature gradients along the Equator in the early Pliocene, there has been much speculation about Pliocene climate variability. A major advance for our knowledge about the later Pliocene has been the coordination of modelling efforts through the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Here the changes in interannual modes of sea surface temperature variability will be presented across PlioMIP. Previously, model ensembles have shown little consensus in the response of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to imposed forcings - either for the past or future. The PlioMIP ensemble, however, shows surprising agreement, with eight models simulating reduced variability and only one model indicating no change. The Pliocene's robustly weaker ENSO also saw a shift to lower frequencies. Model ensembles focussed on a wide variety of forcing scenarios have not yet shown this level of coherency. Nonetheless, the PlioMIP ensemble does not show a robust response of either ENSO flavour or sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Indian and North Pacific oceans. Existing suggestions linking ENSO properties to to changes in zonal temperature gradient, seasonal cycle and the elevation of the Andes Mountains are investigated, yet prove insufficient to explain the consistent response. The reason for this surprisingly coherent signal warrants further investigation.

  7. Climate Model Intercomparison at the Dynamics Level (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsonis, A.; Steinhaeuser, K.

    2013-12-01

    Until now, climate model intercomparison has focused primarily on annual and global averages of various quantities or on specific components, not on how well the general dynamics in the models compare to each other. In order to address how well models agree when it comes to dynamics they generate, we have adopted a new approach based on climate networks. We have considered 28 pre-industrial control runs as well as 70 20th-century forced runs from 23 climate models and have constructed networks for the 500 hPa, surface air temperature (SAT), sea level pressure (SLP), and precipitation fields for each run. Then we employed a widely used algorithm to derive the community structure in these networks. Communities separate 'nodes' in the network sharing similar dynamics. It has been shown that these communities, or sub-systems, in the climate system are associated with major climate modes and physics of the atmosphere. Once the community structure for all runs is derived, we use a pattern matching statistic to obtain a measure of how well any two models agree with each other. We find that, with possibly the exception of the 500 hPa field, the consistency for the SAT, SLP, and precipitation fields is questionable. More importantly, none of the models comes close to the community structure of the actual observations (reality). This is a significant finding especially for the temperature and precipitation fields, as these are the fields widely used to produce future projections in time and in space.

  8. A climate model intercomparison at the dynamics level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsonis, A.; Steinhaeuser, K.

    2012-12-01

    Up to now climate model intercomparison has focused on annual and global averages of various quantities or on specific components, not on how well the general dynamics in the models compare to each other. In order to address how well the models agree when it comes to dynamics they generate, we have adopted a new approach based on climate networks. We have considered 57 20th-century control runs from 17 climate models and have constructed networks for the 500 hPa, surface air temperature (SAT), and sea level pressure (SLP) fields for each run. Then we used two different algorithms to derive the community structure in these networks. Communities separate "nodes' in the network sharing similar dynamics. It has been shown that these communities, or sub-systems, in the climate system are associated with major climate modes and physics of the atmosphere 1-3. Once the community structure for all runs is derived we use a pattern matching statistic to obtain a measure of how well any two models agree with each other. We find that with possibly the exception of the 500 hPa filed, the consistency for the SLP and especially SAT fields is questionable. More importantly none of the models comes close to the community structure of the actual observations (reality). This is a significant finding especially for the temperature field, as this is the field predicted to produce temperature projections in time and in space.

  9. A climate model intercomparison at the dynamics level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsonis, Anastasios; Steinhaeuser, Karsten

    2013-04-01

    Until now, climate model intercomparison has focused primarily on annual and global averages of various quantities or on specific components, not on how well the general dynamics in the models compare to each other. In order to address how well models agree when it comes to dynamics they generate, we have adopted a new approach based on climate networks. We have considered 28 pre-industrial control runs as well as 70 20th-century forced runs from 23 climate models and have constructed networks for the 500 hPa, surface air temperature (SAT), sea level pressure (SLP), and precipitation fields for each run. Then we employed a widely used algorithm to derive the community structure in these networks. Communities separate "nodes" in the network sharing similar dynamics. It has been shown that these communities, or sub-systems, in the climate system are associated with major climate modes and physics of the atmosphere. Once the community structure for all runs is derived, we use a pattern matching statistic to obtain a measure of how well any two models agree with each other. We find that, with possibly the exception of the 500 hPa field, the consistency for the SAT, SLP, and precipitation fields is questionable. More importantly, none of the models comes close to the community structure of the actual observations (reality). This is a significant finding especially for the temperature and precipitation fields, as these are the fields widely used to produce future projections in time and in space.

  10. A model intercomparison for stochastic simulation of temporal precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

    2014-05-01

    Stochastic models, based on diverse stochastic processes, have been applied in the last decades for the simulation of precipitation time series. Different models target a good reproduction of statistical properties of precipitation across a specific range of temporal scales. The choice of the statistical properties and the respective range of scales are frequently dictated by the purpose for which each model is built. Despite the large variety of stochastic precipitation modeling tools, an intercomparison has been rarely attempted. Moreover, a common practice is to validate a stochastic model only for the statistical properties for which it has been developed to perform well. It is our opinion that this practice may have negative implications, especially when stochastic models are used in hydrology as a black box. In this study we present an extensive comparison among some of the most widely applied stochastic precipitation models. Models based on point processes (e.g. Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses model, Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulses model), Mutiplicative Random Cascades (e.g. canonical and microcanonical MRC), Markov chains, scaling processes and their combinations (e.g. Paschalis et al., 2013, Advances in Water resources) are used in order to assess their efficiency for a number of stations belonging to different climates, spanning from semiarid to wet oceanic. A complete model validation is performed, taking into account all the essential statistical properties of precipitation (e.g. probability distribution, extremes, autocorrelation, intermittency, etc.) for a wide range of temporal scales relevant for hydrological and ecological applications. The overall goal is to identify the general patterns of the strengths and weaknesses of the various modeling tools, and to provide insights for generally applicable guidelines in the model selection dependent on the specific hydrological/ecological application.

  11. Statistical intercomparison of global climate models: A common principal component approach with application to GCM data

    SciTech Connect

    Sengupta, S.K.; Boyle, J.S.

    1993-05-01

    Variables describing atmospheric circulation and other climate parameters derived from various GCMs and obtained from observations can be represented on a spatio-temporal grid (lattice) structure. The primary objective of this paper is to explore existing as well as some new statistical methods to analyze such data structures for the purpose of model diagnostics and intercomparison from a statistical perspective. Among the several statistical methods considered here, a new method based on common principal components appears most promising for the purpose of intercomparison of spatio-temporal data structures arising in the task of model/model and model/data intercomparison. A complete strategy for such an intercomparison is outlined. The strategy includes two steps. First, the commonality of spatial structures in two (or more) fields is captured in the common principal vectors. Second, the corresponding principal components obtained as time series are then compared on the basis of similarities in their temporal evolution.

  12. The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison Diagnostic System: Implementing a New Strategy Beyond the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)

    SciTech Connect

    Potter, G.L.

    1999-10-18

    The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) was established in 1989 at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) with the principal mission to develop improved methods and tools for the diagnosis, validation and intercomparison of global climate models. The goal of the process is to eventually improve simulation of the regional climate effects of increasing greenhouse gases. In addition to comparing models, PCMDI continues to develop a modeling infrastructure by creating diagnostics that will be shared throughout the research community. PCMDI's early model intercomparison strategy was to solicit a few models that could be run for a specified period with prescribed sea-surface temperatures after being imported and adapted to the LLNL unclassified computer systems. Because of the enormous time required to prepare each model, the experiment was reversed and the modeling groups were asked to perform the controlled simulations themselves. In order to reach out to the entire atmospheric modeling community, the Working Group for Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) became the parent organization and the project was named the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). Eventually, more than thirty atmospheric modeling groups joined the effort to compare their model output (Gates et al. 1999). The general results showed that the models vary widely for some variables and are tightly clustered for other variables. Fig. 1 characterizes the wide array of results obtained in AMIP and underscores the need to better understand differences among models and between models and observations. As a result of AMIP, model development and improvement strategy has incurred a permanent change. Modeling groups routinely perform AMIP-like simulations as they improve their models and create new versions containing substantial modifications to parameterizations. Other model intercomparison projects (MIPs) have since sprung up, most notably, the Coupled Model

  13. Arctic Pacific water dynamics from model intercomparison and observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aksenov, Yevgeny; Karcher, Michael; Proshutinsky, Andrey; Gerdes, Ruediger; Bacon, Sheldon; Nurser, George; Coward, Andrew; Golubeva, Elena; Kauker, Frank; Nguyen, An; Platov, Gennady; Wadley, Martin; Watanabe, Eiji

    2016-04-01

    Pacific Water imports heat and fresh water from the northern Pacific in the Arctic Ocean, impacting upper ocean mixing and dynamics, as well as Arctic sea ice. Pathways and the circulation of PW in the central Arctic Ocean are not well known due to the lack of observations. This study uses an ensemble of the sea ice-ocean models integrated with passive tracer released in the Bering Strait to simulate Pacific water spread. We investigate different branches and modes of Pacific water and analyse changes in the water mass distribution through the Arctic Ocean due to changes in the wind and ocean potential vorticity. We focus on seasonal cycle and inter-decadal variations. The first results have been published recently (Aksenov et al., 2015) as a part of Forum for Arctic Ocean Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS) project. In the present study we extend the examination further and discuss the role of the Pacific water variability in the recent changes in the Arctic heat and fresh water storage. We present insights in the projected future changes to Pacific water dynamics. Reference Aksenov, Y., et al. (2015), Arctic pathways of Pacific Water: Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison experiments, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 120, doi:10.1002/2015JC011299.

  14. ISI-MIP: The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huber, V.; Dahlemann, S.; Frieler, K.; Piontek, F.; Schewe, J.; Serdeczny, O.; Warszawski, L.

    2013-12-01

    The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) aims to synthesize the state-of-the-art knowledge of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. The project's experimental design is formulated to distinguish the uncertainty introduced by the impact models themselves, from the inherent uncertainty in the climate projections and the variety of plausible socio-economic futures. The unique cross-sectoral scope of the project provides the opportunity to study cascading effects of impacts in interacting sectors and to identify regional 'hot spots' where multiple sectors experience extreme impacts. Another emphasis lies on the development of novel metrics to describe societal impacts of a warmer climate. We briefly outline the methodological framework, and then present selected results of the first, fast-tracked phase of ISI-MIP. The fast track brought together 35 global impact models internationally, spanning five sectors across human society and the natural world (agriculture, water, natural ecosystems, health and coastal infrastructure), and using the latest generation of global climate simulations (RCP projections from the CMIP5 archive) and socioeconomic drivers provided within the SSP process. We also introduce the second phase of the project, which will enlarge the scope of ISI-MIP by encompassing further impact sectors (e.g., forestry, fisheries, permafrost) and regional modeling approaches. The focus for the next round of simulations will be the validation and improvement of models based on historical observations and the analysis of variability and extreme events. Last but not least, we discuss the longer-term objective of ISI-MIP to initiate a coordinated, ongoing impact assessment process, driven by the entire impact community and in parallel with well-established climate model intercomparisons (CMIP).

  15. A climate model intercomparison at the dynamics level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinhaeuser, Karsten; Tsonis, Anastasios A.

    2014-03-01

    Until now, climate model intercomparison has focused primarily on annual and global averages of various quantities or on specific components, not on how well the general dynamics in the models compare to each other. In order to address how well models agree when it comes to the dynamics they generate, we have adopted a new approach based on climate networks. We have considered 28 pre-industrial control runs as well as 70 20th-century forced runs from 23 climate models and have constructed networks for the 500 hPa, surface air temperature (SAT), sea level pressure (SLP), and precipitation fields for each run. We then employed a widely used algorithm to derive the community structure in these networks. Communities separate "nodes" in the network sharing similar dynamics. It has been shown that these communities, or sub-systems, in the climate system are associated with major climate modes and physics of the atmosphere (Tsonis AA, Swanson KL, Wang G, J Clim 21: 2990-3001 in 2008; Tsonis AA, Wang G, Swanson KL, Rodrigues F, da Fontura Costa L, Clim Dyn, 37: 933-940 in 2011; Steinhaeuser K, Ganguly AR, Chawla NV, Clim Dyn 39: 889-895 in 2012). Once the community structure for all runs is derived, we use a pattern matching statistic to obtain a measure of how well any two models agree with each other. We find that, with the possible exception of the 500 hPa field, consistency for the SAT, SLP, and precipitation fields is questionable. More importantly, none of the models comes close to the community structure of the actual observations (reality). This is a significant finding especially for the temperature and precipitation fields, as these are the fields widely used to produce future projections in time and in space.

  16. Global dust model intercomparison in AeroCom phase I

    SciTech Connect

    Huneeus, N.; Schulz, M.; Balkanski, Y.; Griesfeller, J.; Prospero, J.; Kinne, S.; Bauer, S.; Boucher, O.; Chin, M.; Dentener, F.; Diehl, T.; Easter, R.; Fillmore, D.; Ghan, S.; Ginoux, P.; Grini, A.; Horowitz, L.; Koch, D.; Krol, M. C.; Landing, W.; Liu, X.; Mahowald, N.; Miller, R.; Morcrette, J. -J.; Myhre, G.; Penner, J.; Perlwitz, J.; Stier, P.; Takemura, T.; Zender, C. S.

    2011-08-01

    This study presents the results of a broad intercomparison of a total of 15 global aerosol models within the AeroCom project. Each model is compared to observations related to desert dust aerosols, their direct radiative effect, and their impact on the biogeochemical cycle, i.e., aerosol optical depth (AOD) and dust deposition. Additional comparisons to Angström exponent (AE), coarse mode AOD and dust surface concentrations are included to extend the assessment of model performance and to identify common biases present in models. These data comprise a benchmark dataset that is proposed for model inspection and future dust model development. There are large differences among the global models that simulate the dust cycle and its impact on climate. In general, models simulate the climatology of vertically integrated parameters (AOD and AE) within a factor of two whereas the total deposition and surface concentration are reproduced within a factor of 10. In addition, smaller mean normalized bias and root mean square errors are obtained for the climatology of AOD and AE than for total deposition and surface concentration. Characteristics of the datasets used and their uncertainties may influence these differences. Large uncertainties still exist with respect to the deposition fluxes in the southern oceans. Further measurements and model studies are necessary to assess the general model performance to reproduce dust deposition in ocean regions sensible to iron contributions. Models overestimate the wet deposition in regions dominated by dry deposition. They generally simulate more realistic surface concentration at stations downwind of the main sources than at remote ones. Most models simulate the gradient in AOD and AE between the different dusty regions. However the seasonality and magnitude of both variables is better simulated at African stations than Middle East ones. The models simulate the offshore transport of West Africa throughout the year but they

  17. Results of the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, M.; Seo, D. J.; Koren, V.; Reed, S.; Zhang, Z.; Moreda, F.; Kuzmin, V.

    2003-04-01

    The Hydrology Lab (HL) of the US National Weather Service (NWS) has recently completed the first phase of the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP). DMIP was formulated to address several key scientific and NWS operational issues. First, the NWS is actively researching new rainfall/runoff modeling approaches to exploit the unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution of the NEXRAD radar data for improved river and flash flood forecasting. However, it is not clear from the scientific literature which of the existing distributed models or process algorithms is appropriate for NWS forecasting needs. Thus, DMIP was designed as a venue for objective model comparison. Also, while the spatial variability of precipitation and physiographic features has often been cited as reasons to implement a distributed model over a lumped model, there was a lack of evidence that a distributed model would consistently provide better simulations than a lumped model using the same input forcing. To address this lack of a rigorous comparison, distributed models were also compared to the standard NWS lumped operational model. DMIP was also formulated to help the NWS understand the issues surrounding the operational implementation of distributed models. These included the use of operational forcing data (as apposed to research quality data), parameter derivation, run-time restrictions, and the level of effort and benefits related to parameter calibration. Moreover, DMIP was designed to give academic and other research institutions an opportunity to test their models against the standard NWS forecasting model in a pseudo operational setting. In DMIP, HL supplied all data sets needed for participants to set-up and run their models. These included radar precipitation data, two resolutions of DEM data, soils information, vegetation indicies, meteorological measurements, and observed streamflow data for calibration. Participants were required to run their models continuously in

  18. Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): experimental design and boundary conditions (Experiment 2)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Robinson, M.M.; Stoll, D.K.; Dolan, A.M.; Lunt, D.J.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Chandler, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere-only climate models. The second (Experiment 2) utilises fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Following on from the publication of the experimental design and boundary conditions for Experiment 1 in Geoscientific Model Development, this paper provides the necessary description of differences and/or additions to the experimental design for Experiment 2.

  19. Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): Experimental Design and Boundary Conditions (Experiment 2)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haywood, A. M.; Dowsett, H. J.; Robinson, M. M.; Stoll, D. K.; Dolan, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Chandler, M. A.

    2011-01-01

    The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere only climate models. The second (Experiment 2) utilizes fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Following on from the publication of the experimental design and boundary conditions for Experiment 1 in Geoscientific Model Development, this paper provides the necessary description of differences and/or additions to the experimental design for Experiment 2.

  20. The ARM-GCSS Intercomparison Study of Single-Column Models and Cloud System Models

    SciTech Connect

    Cederwall, R.T.; Rodriques, D.J.; Krueger, S.K.; Randall, D.A.

    1999-10-27

    The Single-Column Model (SCM) Working Group (WC) and the Cloud Working Group (CWG) in the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program have begun a collaboration with the GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) WGs. The forcing data sets derived from the special ARM radiosonde measurements made during the SCM Intensive Observation Periods (IOPs), the wealth of cloud and related data sets collected by the ARM Program, and the ARM infrastructure support of the SCM WG are of great value to GCSS. In return, GCSS brings the efforts of an international group of cloud system modelers to bear on ARM data sets and ARM-related scientific questions. The first major activity of the ARM-GCSS collaboration is a model intercomparison study involving SCMs and cloud system models (CSMs), also known as cloud-resolving or cloud-ensemble models. The SCM methodologies developed in the ARM Program have matured to the point where an intercomparison will help identify the strengths and weaknesses of various approaches. CSM simulations will bring much additional information about clouds to evaluate cloud parameterizations used in the SCMs. CSMs and SCMs have been compared successfully in previous GCSS intercomparison studies for tropical conditions. The ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site offers an opportunity for GCSS to test their models in continental, mid-latitude conditions. The Summer 1997 SCM IOP has been chosen since it provides a wide range of summertime weather events that will be a challenging test of these models.

  1. The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP): project framework.

    PubMed

    Warszawski, Lila; Frieler, Katja; Huber, Veronika; Piontek, Franziska; Serdeczny, Olivia; Schewe, Jacob

    2014-03-01

    The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project offers a framework to compare climate impact projections in different sectors and at different scales. Consistent climate and socio-economic input data provide the basis for a cross-sectoral integration of impact projections. The project is designed to enable quantitative synthesis of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. This report briefly outlines the objectives and framework of the first, fast-tracked phase of Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, based on global impact models, and provides an overview of the participating models, input data, and scenario set-up. PMID:24344316

  2. The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP): Project framework

    PubMed Central

    Warszawski, Lila; Frieler, Katja; Huber, Veronika; Piontek, Franziska; Serdeczny, Olivia; Schewe, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project offers a framework to compare climate impact projections in different sectors and at different scales. Consistent climate and socio-economic input data provide the basis for a cross-sectoral integration of impact projections. The project is designed to enable quantitative synthesis of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. This report briefly outlines the objectives and framework of the first, fast-tracked phase of Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, based on global impact models, and provides an overview of the participating models, input data, and scenario set-up. PMID:24344316

  3. Intercomparison of a 'Bottom-up' and 'Top-down' Modeling Paradigm for estimating carbon and latent heat fluxes over a variety of vegetative regimes across the U.S., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Biophysical models intended for routine applications at a range of scales should attempt to balance the competing demands of generality and simplicity and be capable of realistically simulating the response of CO2 and energy fluxes to environmental and physiological forcings. At the same time they m...

  4. An Analysis of Simulated Wet Deposition of Mercury from the North American Mercury Model Intercomparison Study

    EPA Science Inventory

    A previous intercomparison of atmospheric mercury models in North America has been extended to compare simulated and observed wet deposition of mercury. Three regional-scale atmospheric mercury models were tested; CMAQ, REMSAD and TEAM. These models were each employed using thr...

  5. Estimating near-road pollutant dispersion: a model inter-comparison

    EPA Science Inventory

    A model inter-comparison study to assess the abilities of steady-state Gaussian dispersion models to capture near-road pollutant dispersion has been carried out with four models (AERMOD, run with both the area-source and volume-source options to represent roadways, CALINE, versio...

  6. LMD - SwRI Martian Mesoscale Models Intercomparison for ExoMars Landing Site Characterization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertrand, T.; Spiga, A.; Rafkin, S.; Colaitis, A.; Forget, F.; Millour, E.

    2013-09-01

    Martian mesoscale models realisticaly simulate Martian meteorology at finer scales (~10km) than Global Climate Models (GCM). This modelling is becoming a central source of insights and diagnostics for future exploration of Mars and is useful to provide best-guesses of atmospheric variations of temperature and wind at mesoscale level. In such context, Model intercomparisons are a fruitful way to evaluate and assess the obtained predictions.

  7. Evaluation of Intercomparisons of Four Different Types of Model Simulating TWP-ICE

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Petch, Jon; Hill, Adrian; Davies, Laura; Fridlind, Ann; Jakob, Christian; Lin, Yanluan; Xie, Shaoecheng; Zhu, Ping

    2013-01-01

    Four model intercomparisons were run and evaluated using the TWP-ICE field campaign, each involving different types of atmospheric model. Here we highlight what can be learnt from having single-column model (SCM), cloud-resolving model (CRM), global atmosphere model (GAM) and limited-area model (LAM) intercomparisons all based around the same field campaign. We also make recommendations for anyone planning further large multi-model intercomparisons to ensure they are of maximum value to the model development community. CRMs tended to match observations better than other model types, although there were exceptions such as outgoing long-wave radiation. All SCMs grew large temperature and moisture biases and performed worse than other model types for many diagnostics. The GAMs produced a delayed and significantly reduced peak in domain-average rain rate when compared to the observations. While it was shown that this was in part due to the analysis used to drive these models, the LAMs were also driven by this analysis and did not have the problem to the same extent. Based on differences between the models with parametrized convection (SCMs and GAMs) and those without (CRMs and LAMs), we speculate that that having explicit convection helps to constrain liquid water whereas the ice contents are controlled more by the representation of the microphysics.

  8. Results from the CCSM Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffman, F. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Fung, I.; Thornton, P.; Lee, Y. J.; Covey, C. C.

    2007-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) Biogeochemistry Working Group has initiated an intercomparison of terrestrial biosphere models running within the CCSM framework. Called the CCSM Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP), its purpose is to allow the U.S. scientific community to evaluate the performance of biogeochemical cycling models within CCSM and to identify the most important processes for inclusion in future versions of CCSM. Two terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to CCSM---CLM3-CASA' and CLM3-CN---have been evaluated following a set of carefully crafted experiments that build upon the C4MIP Phase 1 protocol. In Experiment 1, the models were forced with an improved NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set, while in Experiment 2, the models were coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model Version 3 (CAM3) with carbon, water, and energy exchanges over the 20th century. Unlike with most model intercomparisons, for C-LAMP a model performance methodology based on comparison against best-available observational data sets has been developed. Scalar metrics for each model are derived from comparisons against measurements of net primary production, leaf area index, the seasonal cycle of CO2, carbon stocks, and energy. Results from both experiments for CLM3- CASA' and CLM3-CN will be presented, along with recommendations for future evaluations of terrestrial models. C-LAMP model output will be made available by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) via the Earth System Grid (ESG). C-LAMP is a sub-project of the Computational Climate Science End Station headed by Dr. Warren Washington, using computing resources at the U.S. Department of Energy's National Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS).

  9. Preliminary Results from the CCSM Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C- LAMP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffman, F. M.; Fung, I.; Randerson, J.; Thornton, P.; Stöckli, R.; Heinsch, F.; Running, S.; Hibbard, K.; John, J.; Covey, C.; Foley, J.; Post, W. M.; Hargrove, W. W.; Erickson, D. J.; Mahowald, N.

    2006-12-01

    The Biogeochemistry Working Group for the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) has initiated an intercomparison of terrestrial biosphere models running within the CCSM framework. Called the CCSM Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP), its purpose is to allow the U.S. scientific community to evaluate the performance of biogeochemical cycling models within CCSM and to identify the most important processes for inclusion in a biosphere model participating in simulations supporting the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Three terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to CCSM---CLM3-CASA', CLM3-CN, and LSX-IBIS---will be evaluated following a set of carefully crafted experiments that build upon the C4MIP Phase 1 protocol. In Experiment 1, the models will be forced with an improved NCAR/NCAR reanalysis data set, while in Experiment 2, the models will be coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model Version 3 (CAM3) with carbon, water, and energy exchanges over the 20th century. In order to quickly verify and validate the performance of these biogeochemistry models against high quality observations, a set of offline runs for Fluxnet tower sites have been performed using observed meteorology. Certain biogeochemical, hydrological, physiological, and radiation fields have been saved hourly for intercomparison across models and with high frequency tower measurements. An analysis of the offline flux tower runs will be presented along with preliminary results from the global experiments run within the CCSM framework. Model results will be made available by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) via the Earth System Grid (ESG), and this presentation will include an invitation for community participation in the analysis and evaluation of the model results. C-LAMP is a subproject of the Computational Climate Science End Station headed by Dr. Warren Washington, using computing resources at the

  10. The Program for climate Model diagnosis and Intercomparison: 20-th anniversary Symposium

    SciTech Connect

    Potter, Gerald L; Bader, David C; Riches, Michael; Bamzai, Anjuli; Joseph, Renu

    2011-01-05

    Twenty years ago, W. Lawrence (Larry) Gates approached the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Research (now the Office of Science) with a plan to coordinate the comparison and documentation of climate model differences. This effort would help improve our understanding of climate change through a systematic approach to model intercomparison. Early attempts at comparing results showed a surprisingly large range in control climate from such parameters as cloud cover, precipitation, and even atmospheric temperature. The DOE agreed to fund the effort at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), in part because of the existing computing environment and because of a preexisting atmospheric science group that contained a wide variety of expertise. The project was named the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), and it has changed the international landscape of climate modeling over the past 20 years. In spring 2009 the DOE hosted a 1-day symposium to celebrate the twentieth anniversary of PCMDI and to honor its founder, Larry Gates. Through their personal experiences, the morning presenters painted an image of climate science in the 1970s and 1980s, that generated early support from the international community for model intercomparison, thereby bringing PCMDI into existence. Four talks covered Gates's early contributions to climate research at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), the RAND Corporation, and Oregon State University through the founding of PCMDI to coordinate the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The speakers were, in order of presentation, Warren Washington [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)], Kelly Redmond (Western Regional Climate Center), George Boer (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis), and Lennart Bengtsson [University of Reading, former director of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)]. The afternoon session emphasized

  11. INTERCOMPARISON STUDY OF ATMOSPHERIC MERCURY MODELS: 2. MODELING RESULTS VS. LONG-TERM OBSERVATIONS AND COMPARISON OF COUNTRY ATMOSPHERIC BALANCES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Five regional scale models with a horizontal domain covering the European continent and its surrounding seas, two hemispheric and one global scale model participated in the atmospheric Hg modelling intercomparison study. The models were compared between each other and with availa...

  12. The Southern Ocean in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5

    PubMed Central

    Meijers, A. J. S.

    2014-01-01

    The Southern Ocean is an important part of the global climate system, but its complex coupled nature makes both its present state and its response to projected future climate forcing difficult to model. Clear trends in wind, sea-ice extent and ocean properties emerged from multi-model intercomparison in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Here, we review recent analyses of the historical and projected wind, sea ice, circulation and bulk properties of the Southern Ocean in the updated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Improvements to the models include higher resolutions, more complex and better-tuned parametrizations of ocean mixing, and improved biogeochemical cycles and atmospheric chemistry. CMIP5 largely reproduces the findings of CMIP3, but with smaller inter-model spreads and biases. By the end of the twenty-first century, mid-latitude wind stresses increase and shift polewards. All water masses warm, and intermediate waters freshen, while bottom waters increase in salinity. Surface mixed layers shallow, warm and freshen, whereas sea ice decreases. The upper overturning circulation intensifies, whereas bottom water formation is reduced. Significant disagreement exists between models for the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current strength, for reasons that are as yet unclear. PMID:24891395

  13. The Southern Ocean in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5.

    PubMed

    Meijers, A J S

    2014-07-13

    The Southern Ocean is an important part of the global climate system, but its complex coupled nature makes both its present state and its response to projected future climate forcing difficult to model. Clear trends in wind, sea-ice extent and ocean properties emerged from multi-model intercomparison in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Here, we review recent analyses of the historical and projected wind, sea ice, circulation and bulk properties of the Southern Ocean in the updated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Improvements to the models include higher resolutions, more complex and better-tuned parametrizations of ocean mixing, and improved biogeochemical cycles and atmospheric chemistry. CMIP5 largely reproduces the findings of CMIP3, but with smaller inter-model spreads and biases. By the end of the twenty-first century, mid-latitude wind stresses increase and shift polewards. All water masses warm, and intermediate waters freshen, while bottom waters increase in salinity. Surface mixed layers shallow, warm and freshen, whereas sea ice decreases. The upper overturning circulation intensifies, whereas bottom water formation is reduced. Significant disagreement exists between models for the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current strength, for reasons that are as yet unclear. PMID:24891395

  14. New Results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robock, A.; Kravitz, B.

    2013-12-01

    The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) was designed to determine robust climate system model responses to Solar Radiation Management (SRM). While mitigation (reducing greenhouse gases emissions) is the most effective way of reducing future climate change, SRM (the deliberate modification of incoming solar radiation) has been proposed as a means of temporarily alleviating some of the effects of global warming. For society to make informed decisions as to whether SRM should ever be implemented, information is needed on the benefits, risks, and side effects, and GeoMIP seeks to aid in that endeavor. GeoMIP has organized four standardized climate model simulations involving reduction of insolation or increased amounts of stratospheric sulfate aerosols to counteract increasing greenhouse gases. Thirteen comprehensive atmosphere-ocean general circulation models have participated in the project so far. GeoMIP is a 'CMIP Coordinated Experiment' as part of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) and has been endorsed by SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate). GeoMIP has held three international workshops and has produced a number of recent journal articles. GeoMIP has found that if increasing greenhouse gases could be counteracted with insolation reduction, the global average temperature could be kept constant, but global average precipitation would reduce, particularly in summer monsoon regions around the world. Temperature changes would also not be uniform. The tropics would cool, but high latitudes would warm, with continuing, but reduced sea ice and ice sheet melting. Temperature extremes would still increase, but not as much as without SRM. If SRM were halted all at once, there would be rapid temperature and precipitation increases at 5-10 times the rates from gradual global warming. SRM combined with CO2 fertilization would have small impacts on rice production in China, but would increase maize production

  15. Multi-Model Combination techniques for Hydrological Forecasting: Application to Distributed Model Intercomparison Project Results

    SciTech Connect

    Ajami, N K; Duan, Q; Gao, X; Sorooshian, S

    2005-04-11

    This paper examines several multi-model combination techniques: the Simple Multi-model Average (SMA), the Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Modified Multi-Model Super Ensemble (M3SE) and the Weighted Average Method (WAM). These model combination techniques were evaluated using the results from the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP), an international project sponsored by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). All of the multi-model combination results were obtained using uncalibrated DMIP model outputs and were compared against the best uncalibrated as well as the best calibrated individual model results. The purpose of this study is to understand how different combination techniques affect the skill levels of the multi-model predictions. This study revealed that the multi-model predictions obtained from uncalibrated single model predictions are generally better than any single member model predictions, even the best calibrated single model predictions. Furthermore, more sophisticated multi-model combination techniques that incorporated bias correction steps work better than simple multi-model average predictions or multi-model predictions without bias correction.

  16. Radiance and Jacobian Intercomparison of Radiative Transfer Models Applied to HIRS and AMSU Channels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garand, L.; Turner, D. S.; Larocque, M.; Bates, J.; Boukabara, S.; Brunel, P.; Chevallier, F.; Deblonde, G.; Engelen, R.; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The goals of this study are the evaluation of current fast radiative transfer models (RTMs) and line-by-line (LBL) models. The intercomparison focuses on the modeling of 11 representative sounding channels routinely used at numerical weather prediction centers: seven HIRS (High-resolution Infrared Sounder) and four AMSU (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit) channels. Interest in this topic was evidenced by the participation of 24 scientists from 16 institutions. An ensemble of 42 diverse atmospheres was used and results compiled for 19 infrared models and 10 microwave models, including several LBL RTMs. For the first time, not only radiances, but also Jacobians (of temperature, water vapor, and ozone) were compared to various LBL models for many channels. In the infrared, LBL models typically agree to within 0.05-0.15 K (standard deviation) in terms of top-of-the-atmosphere brightness temperature (BT). Individual differences up to 0.5 K still exist, systematic in some channels, and linked to the type of atmosphere in others. The best fast models emulate LBL BTs to within 0.25 K, but no model achieves this desirable level of success for all channels. The ozone modeling is particularly challenging. In the microwave, fast models generally do quite well against the LBL model to which they were tuned. However significant differences were noted among LBL models. Extending the intercomparison to the Jacobians proved very useful in detecting subtle and more obvious modeling errors. In addition, total and single gas optical depths were calculated, which provided additional insight on the nature of differences. Recommendations for future intercomparisons are suggested.

  17. World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3): Multi-Model Dataset Archive at PCMDI (Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison)

    DOE Data Explorer

    In response to a proposed activity of the WCRP's Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM),PCMDI volunteered to collect model output contributed by leading modeling centers around the world. Climate model output from simulations of the past, present and future climate was collected by PCMDI mostly during the years 2005 and 2006, and this archived data constitutes phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). In part, the WGCM organized this activity to enable those outside the major modeling centers to perform research of relevance to climate scientists preparing the Fourth Asssessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC was established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Program to assess scientific information on climate change. The IPCC publishes reports that summarize the state of the science. This unprecedented collection of recent model output is officially known as the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. It is meant to serve IPCC's Working Group 1, which focuses on the physical climate system - atmosphere, land surface, ocean and sea ice - and the choice of variables archived at the PCMDI reflects this focus. A more comprehensive set of output for a given model may be available from the modeling center that produced it. As of November 2007, over 35 terabytes of data were in the archive and over 303 terabytes of data had been downloaded among the more than 1200 registered users. Over 250 journal articles, based at least in part on the dataset, have been published or have been accepted for peer-reviewed publication. Countries from which models have been gathered include Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany and Korea, Italy, Japan, Norway, Russia, Great Britain and the United States. Models, variables, and documentation are collected and stored. Check http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/data_status_tables.htm to see at a glance the output that is available

  18. Collaborative experiment on intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models for climate impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krysanova, Valentina; Hattermann, Fred

    2015-04-01

    The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) is a community-driven modelling effort bringing together impact modellers across sectors and scales to create more consistent and comprehensive projections of the impacts of climate change. This project is aimed in establishing a long-term, systematic, cross-sectoral impact model intercomparison process, including comparison of climate change impacts for multiple sectors using ensemble of climate scenarios and applying global and regional impact models. The project is coordinated by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. An overview of this project and collaborative experiment related to the regional-scale water sector model intercomparison in ISI-MIP will be presented. The regional-scale water sector modelling includes eleven models applied to eleven large-scale river basins worldwide (not every model is applied to every of eleven basins). In total, 60-65 model applications will be done by several collaborating groups from different Institutions. The modelling tools include: ECOMAG, HBV, HBV-light, HYPE, LASCAM, LISFLOOD, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP. Eleven river basins chosen for the model application and intercomparison are: the Rhine and Tagus in Europe, the Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, the Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, the Upper Mississippi and Upper Amazon in America, and the Murray-Darling in Australia. Their drainage areas range between 67,490 km2 (Tagus) to 2,460,000 km2 (Lena). Data from global and regional datasets are used for the model setup and calibration. The model calibration and validation was done using the WATCH climate data for all cases, also checking the representation of high and low percentiles of river discharge. For most of the basins, also intermediate gauge stations were included in the calibration. The calibration and validation results, evaluated with the Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and percent bias (PBIAS), are mostly

  19. Catchment Prediction In Changing Environments (CAPICHE): A Model Inter-Comparison Experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hutton, Christopher; Nijzink, Remko; Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Capell, René; Wagener, Thorsten; Freer, Jim; Han, Dawei; Hrachowitz, Markus; Arheimer, Berit

    2016-04-01

    In order to improve societal resilience to the impacts of changes in climate and land-use, improved understanding of how catchments respond to changing forcing conditions is required. Such understanding may help better identify the range of effective interventions to improve overall integrated catchment management. For example, re-foresting catchment headwaters may reduce high flows, but also reduce low flows through increased evapotranspiration, creating a potential trade-off that needs to be reliably understood when considering benefits for both water supply and flood mitigation. Catchment modelling may be useful to inform such management decisions by simulating future forcing changes, so that we can assess the relative benefits of different catchment management scenarios. However, numerical models are known to be uncertain, and their ability to simulate future change is compromised by the fact that model parameters can show non-stationary and compensatory effects for different forcing conditions, notwithstanding errors and uncertainties in the future forcings themselves. In order to first identify, and second develop the most appropriate models to simulate catchments under environmental change, we argue that model inter-comparisons are required that move beyond a simple comparison of predictive performance alone, towards a controlled comparison of how different models simulate change. We present the development of a methodology for model inter-comparison under changing forcings to analyse, in this case, how models simulate landscape change, built upon time-varying sensitivity analysis of model parameters. First, for a given catchment, hydrologic signatures are calculated over consecutive windows covering the period of forcing change to analyse how the catchment responds hydrologically to change. Then, each model is calibrated to each window, and within each window, to each signature, which allows us to analyse the time-varying relationship between catchment

  20. A proposal for the intercomparison of the dynamical cores of atmospheric general circulation models

    SciTech Connect

    Held, I.M. ); Suarez, M.J. )

    1994-10-01

    A benchmark calculation is proposed for evaluating the dynamical cores of atmospheric general circulation models independently of the physical parameterizations. The test focuses on the long-term statistical properties of a fully developed general circulation; thus, it is particularly appropriate for intercomparing the dynamics used in climate models. To illustrate the use of this benchmark, two very different atmospheric dynamical cores - one spectral, one finite difference - are compared. It is found that the long-term statistics produced by the two models are very similar. Selected results from these calculations are presented to initiate the intercomparison. 17 refs., 4 figs.

  1. A proposal for the intercomparison of the dynamical cores of atmospheric general circulation models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Held, Isaac M.; Suarez, Max J.

    1994-01-01

    A benchmark calculation is proposed for evaluating the dynamical cores of atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) independently of the physical parameterizations. The test focuses on the long-term statistical properties of a fully developed general circulation; thus, it is particularly appropriate for intercomparing the dynamics used in climate models. To illustrate the use of this benchmark, two very different atmospheric dynamical cores--one spectral, one finite difference--are compared. It is found that the long-term statistics produced by the two models are very similar. Selected results from these calculations are presented to initiate the intercomparison.

  2. Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Simulated by Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Mark; Proshuntinsky, Andrew; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Nguyen, An T.; Lindsay, Ron; Haas, Christian; Zhang, Jinlun; Diansky, Nikolay; Kwok, Ron; Maslowski, Wieslaw; Hakkinen, Sirpa; Ashik, Igor; De Cuevas, Beverly

    2012-01-01

    Six Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project model simulations are compared with estimates of sea ice thickness derived from pan-Arctic satellite freeboard measurements (2004-2008); airborne electromagnetic measurements (2001-2009); ice draft data from moored instruments in Fram Strait, the Greenland Sea, and the Beaufort Sea (1992-2008) and from submarines (1975-2000); and drill hole data from the Arctic basin, Laptev, and East Siberian marginal seas (1982-1986) and coastal stations (1998-2009). Despite an assessment of six models that differ in numerical methods, resolution, domain, forcing, and boundary conditions, the models generally overestimate the thickness of measured ice thinner than approximately 2 mand underestimate the thickness of ice measured thicker than about approximately 2m. In the regions of flat immobile landfast ice (shallow Siberian Seas with depths less than 25-30 m), the models generally overestimate both the total observed sea ice thickness and rates of September and October ice growth from observations by more than 4 times and more than one standard deviation, respectively. The models do not reproduce conditions of fast ice formation and growth. Instead, the modeled fast ice is replaced with pack ice which drifts, generating ridges of increasing ice thickness, in addition to thermodynamic ice growth. Considering all observational data sets, the better correlations and smaller differences from observations are from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II and Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System models.

  3. Third Radiation Transfer Model Intercomparison (RAMI) exercise: Documenting progress in canopy reflectance models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Widlowski, J.-L.; Taberner, M.; Pinty, B.; Bruniquel-Pinel, V.; Disney, M.; Fernandes, R.; Gastellu-Etchegorry, J.-P.; Gobron, N.; Kuusk, A.; Lavergne, T.; Leblanc, S.; Lewis, P. E.; Martin, E.; Mõttus, M.; North, P. R. J.; Qin, W.; Robustelli, M.; Rochdi, N.; Ruiloba, R.; Soler, C.; Thompson, R.; Verhoef, W.; Verstraete, M. M.; Xie, D.

    2007-05-01

    The Radiation Transfer Model Intercomparison (RAMI) initiative benchmarks canopy reflectance models under well-controlled experimental conditions. Launched for the first time in 1999, this triennial community exercise encourages the systematic evaluation of canopy reflectance models on a voluntary basis. The first phase of RAMI focused on documenting the spread among radiative transfer (RT) simulations over a small set of primarily 1-D canopies. The second phase expanded the scope to include structurally complex 3-D plant architectures with and without background topography. Here sometimes significant discrepancies were noted which effectively prevented the definition of a reliable "surrogate truth," over heterogeneous vegetation canopies, against which other RT models could then be compared. The present paper documents the outcome of the third phase of RAMI, highlighting both the significant progress that has been made in terms of model agreement since RAMI-2 and the capability of/need for RT models to accurately reproduce local estimates of radiative quantities under conditions that are reminiscent of in situ measurements. Our assessment of the self-consistency and the relative and absolute performance of 3-D Monte Carlo models in RAMI-3 supports their usage in the generation of a "surrogate truth" for all RAMI test cases. This development then leads (1) to the presentation of the "RAMI Online Model Checker" (ROMC), an open-access web-based interface to evaluate RT models automatically, and (2) to a reassessment of the role, scope, and opportunities of the RAMI project in the future.

  4. Large-Scale Features of Pliocene Climate: Results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haywood, A. M.; Hill, D.J.; Dolan, A. M.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Bragg, F.; Chan, W.-L.; Chandler, M. A.; Contoux, C.; Dowsett, H. J.; Jost, A.; Kamae, Y.; Lohmann, G.; Lunt, D. J.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Pickering, S. J.; Ramstein, G.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Salzmann, U.; Sohl, L.; Stepanek, C.; Ueda, H.; Yan, Q.; Zhang, Z.

    2013-01-01

    Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied.Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-mode data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5.

  5. Experimental design for three interrelated Marine Ice-Sheet and Ocean Model Intercomparison Projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asay-Davis, X. S.; Cornford, S. L.; Durand, G.; Galton-Fenzi, B. K.; Gladstone, R. M.; Gudmundsson, G. H.; Hattermann, T.; Holland, D. M.; Holland, D.; Holland, P. R.; Martin, D. F.; Mathiot, P.; Pattyn, F.; Seroussi, H.

    2015-11-01

    Coupled ice sheet-ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of marine ice sheets and tidewater glaciers, from process studies to future projections of ice mass loss and sea level rise. The Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP) is a community effort aimed at designing and coordinating a series of model intercomparison projects (MIPs) for model evaluation in idealized setups, model verification based on observations, and future projections for key regions in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Here we describe computational experiments constituting three interrelated MIPs for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities. These consist of ice sheet experiments under the Marine Ice Sheet MIP third phase (MISMIP+), ocean experiments under the ice shelf-ocean MIP second phase (ISOMIP+) and coupled ice sheet-ocean experiments under the MISOMIP first phase (MISOMIP1). All three MIPs use a shared domain with idealized bedrock topography and forcing, allowing the coupled simulations (MISOMIP1) to be compared directly to the individual component simulations (MISMIP+ and ISOMIP+). The experiments, which have qualitative similarities to Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf and the adjacent region of the Amundsen Sea, are designed to explore the effects of changes in ocean conditions, specifically the temperature at depth, on basal melting and ice dynamics. In future work, differences between model results will form the basis for evaluation of the participating models.

  6. Results of model intercomparison : predicted vs. measured system performance.

    SciTech Connect

    Stein, Joshua S.

    2010-10-01

    This is a blind modeling study to illustrate the variability expected between PV performance model results. Objectives are to answer: (1) What is the modeling uncertainty; (2) Do certain models do better than others; (3) How can performance modeling be improved; and (4) What are the sources of uncertainty? Some preliminary conclusions are: (1) Large variation seen in model results; (2) Variation not entirely consistent across systems; (3) Uncertainty in assigning derates; (4) Discomfort when components are not included in database - Is there comfort when the components are in the database?; and (5) Residual analysis will help to uncover additional patterns in the models.

  7. Radiation Transfer Model Intercomparison (RAMI) exercise: Results from the second phase

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pinty, B.; Widlowski, J.-L.; Taberner, M.; Gobron, N.; Verstraete, M. M.; Disney, M.; Gascon, F.; Gastellu, J.-P.; Jiang, L.; Kuusk, A.; Lewis, P.; Li, X.; Ni-Meister, W.; Nilson, T.; North, P.; Qin, W.; Su, L.; Tang, S.; Thompson, R.; Verhoef, W.; Wang, H.; Wang, J.; Yan, G.; Zang, H.

    2004-03-01

    The Radiation Transfer Model Intercomparison (RAMI) initiative is a community-driven exercise to benchmark the models of radiation transfer (RT) used to represent the reflectance of terrestrial surfaces. Systematic model intercomparisons started in 1999 as a self-organized, open-access, voluntary activity of the RT modeling community. The results of the first phase were published by [2001]. The present paper describes the benchmarking protocol and the results achieved during the second phase, which took place during 2002. This second phase included two major components: The first one included a rerun of all direct-mode tests proposed during the first phase, to accommodate the evaluation of models that have been upgraded since, and the participation of new models into the entire exercise. The second component was designed to probe the performance of three-dimensional models in complex heterogeneous environments, which closely mimic the observations of actual space instruments operating at various spatial resolutions over forest canopy systems. Phases 1 and 2 of RAMI both confirm not only that a majority of the radiation transfer models participating in RAMI are in good agreement between themselves for relatively simple radiation transfer problems but also that these models exhibit significant discrepancies when considering more complex but nevertheless realistic geophysical scenarios. Specific recommendations are provided to guide the future of this benchmarking program (Phase 3 and beyond).

  8. INTERCOMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE VEGETATION DATABASES FOR REGIONAL AIR QUALITY MODELING

    EPA Science Inventory

    Vegetation cover data are used to characterize several regional air quality modeling processes, including the calculation of heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes with the Mesoscale Meteorological Model (MM5) and the estimate of biogenic volatile organic compound and nitric oxide...

  9. A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment designed for climate and chemistry models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tilmes, S.; Mills, M. J.; Niemeier, U.; Schmidt, H.; Robock, A.; Kravitz, B.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Pitari, G.; English, J. M.

    2015-01-01

    A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment "G4 specified stratospheric aerosols" (short name: G4SSA) is proposed to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on atmosphere, chemistry, dynamics, climate, and the environment. In contrast to the earlier G4 GeoMIP experiment, which requires an emission of sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the model, a prescribed aerosol forcing file is provided to the community, to be consistently applied to future model experiments between 2020 and 2100. This stratospheric aerosol distribution, with a total burden of about 2 Tg S has been derived using the ECHAM5-HAM microphysical model, based on a continuous annual tropical emission of 8 Tg SO2 yr-1. A ramp-up of geoengineering in 2020 and a ramp-down in 2070 over a period of 2 years are included in the distribution, while a background aerosol burden should be used for the last 3 decades of the experiment. The performance of this experiment using climate and chemistry models in a multi-model comparison framework will allow us to better understand the impact of geoengineering and its abrupt termination after 50 years in a changing environment. The zonal and monthly mean stratospheric aerosol input data set is available at https://www2.acd.ucar.edu/gcm/geomip-g4-specified-stratospheric-aerosol-data-set.

  10. A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment designed for climate and chemistry models

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Tilmes, S.; Mills, Mike; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Robock, Alan; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Lamarque, J. F.; Pitari, G.; English, J. M.

    2015-01-15

    A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment "G4 specified stratospheric aerosols" (short name: G4SSA) is proposed to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on atmosphere, chemistry, dynamics, climate, and the environment. In contrast to the earlier G4 GeoMIP experiment, which requires an emission of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) into the model, a prescribed aerosol forcing file is provided to the community, to be consistently applied to future model experiments between 2020 and 2100. This stratospheric aerosol distribution, with a total burden of about 2 Tg S has been derived using the ECHAM5-HAM microphysical model, based on a continuous annualmore » tropical emission of 8 Tg SO₂ yr⁻¹. A ramp-up of geoengineering in 2020 and a ramp-down in 2070 over a period of 2 years are included in the distribution, while a background aerosol burden should be used for the last 3 decades of the experiment. The performance of this experiment using climate and chemistry models in a multi-model comparison framework will allow us to better understand the impact of geoengineering and its abrupt termination after 50 years in a changing environment. The zonal and monthly mean stratospheric aerosol input data set is available at https://www2.acd.ucar.edu/gcm/geomip-g4-specified-stratospheric-aerosol-data-set.« less

  11. Inter-comparison of time series models of lake levels predicted by several modeling strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khatibi, R.; Ghorbani, M. A.; Naghipour, L.; Jothiprakash, V.; Fathima, T. A.; Fazelifard, M. H.

    2014-04-01

    Five modeling strategies are employed to analyze water level time series of six lakes with different physical characteristics such as shape, size, altitude and range of variations. The models comprise chaos theory, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) - treated for seasonality and hence SARIMA, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). Each is formulated on a different premise with different underlying assumptions. Chaos theory is elaborated in a greater detail as it is customary to identify the existence of chaotic signals by a number of techniques (e.g. average mutual information and false nearest neighbors) and future values are predicted using the Nonlinear Local Prediction (NLP) technique. This paper takes a critical view of past inter-comparison studies seeking a superior performance, against which it is reported that (i) the performances of all five modeling strategies vary from good to poor, hampering the recommendation of a clear-cut predictive model; (ii) the performances of the datasets of two cases are consistently better with all five modeling strategies; (iii) in other cases, their performances are poor but the results can still be fit-for-purpose; (iv) the simultaneous good performances of NLP and SARIMA pull their underlying assumptions to different ends, which cannot be reconciled. A number of arguments are presented including the culture of pluralism, according to which the various modeling strategies facilitate an insight into the data from different vantages.

  12. A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment designed for climate and chemistry models

    SciTech Connect

    Tilmes, S.; Mills, Mike; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Robock, Alan; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Lamarque, J. F.; Pitari, G.; English, J. M.

    2015-01-15

    A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment "G4 specified stratospheric aerosols" (short name: G4SSA) is proposed to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on atmosphere, chemistry, dynamics, climate, and the environment. In contrast to the earlier G4 GeoMIP experiment, which requires an emission of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) into the model, a prescribed aerosol forcing file is provided to the community, to be consistently applied to future model experiments between 2020 and 2100. This stratospheric aerosol distribution, with a total burden of about 2 Tg S has been derived using the ECHAM5-HAM microphysical model, based on a continuous annual tropical emission of 8 Tg SO₂ yr⁻¹. A ramp-up of geoengineering in 2020 and a ramp-down in 2070 over a period of 2 years are included in the distribution, while a background aerosol burden should be used for the last 3 decades of the experiment. The performance of this experiment using climate and chemistry models in a multi-model comparison framework will allow us to better understand the impact of geoengineering and its abrupt termination after 50 years in a changing environment. The zonal and monthly mean stratospheric aerosol input data set is available at https://www2.acd.ucar.edu/gcm/geomip-g4-specified-stratospheric-aerosol-data-set.

  13. Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an EMIC intercomparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.; Alexander, K.; Zickfeld, K.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Cimatoribus, A. A.; Crespin, E.; Drijfhout, S. S.; Edwards, N. R.; Eliseev, A. V.; Feulner, G.; Fichefet, T.; Forest, C. E.; Goosse, H.; Holden, P. B.; Joos, F.; Kawamiya, M.; Kicklighter, D.; Kienert, H.; Matsumoto, K.; Mokhov, I. I.; Monier, E.; Olsen, S. M.; Pedersen, J. O. P.; Perrette, M.; Philippon-Berthier, G.; Ridgwell, A.; Schlosser, A.; Schneider von Deimling, T.; Shaffer, G.; Smith, R. S.; Spahni, R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Steinacher, M.; Tachiiri, K.; Tokos, K.; Yoshimori, M.; Zeng, N.; Zhao, F.

    2012-08-01

    Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land-use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes seem to be underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate-carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2x and 4x CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate-carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by General Circulation Models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows considerable synergy between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to

  14. Climate Model Response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    SciTech Connect

    Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Caldeira, Ken; Boucher, Olivier; Robock, Alan; Rasch, Philip J.; Alterskjaer, Kari; Bou Karam, Diana; Cole, Jason N.; Curry, Charles L.; Haywood, J.; Irvine, Peter; Ji, Duoying; Jones, A.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Lunt, Daniel; Moore, John; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Schulz, M.; Singh, Balwinder; Tilmes, S.; Watanabe, Shingo; Yang, Shuting; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2013-08-09

    Solar geoengineering—deliberate reduction in the amount of solar radiation retained by the Earth—has been proposed as a means of counteracting some of the climatic effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We present results from Experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which 12 climate models have simulated the climate response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 from preindustrial concentrations brought into radiative balance via a globally uniform reduction in insolation. Models show this reduction largely offsets global mean surface temperature increases due to quadrupled CO2 concentrations and prevents 97% of the Arctic sea ice loss that would otherwise occur under high CO2 levels but, compared to the preindustrial climate, leaves the tropics cooler (-0.3 K) and the poles warmer (+0.8 K). Annual mean precipitation minus evaporation anomalies for G1 are less than 0.2mmday-1 in magnitude over 92% of the globe, but some tropical regions receive less precipitation, in part due to increased moist static stability and suppression of convection. Global average net primary productivity increases by 120% in G1 over simulated preindustrial levels, primarily from CO2 fertilization, but also in part due to reduced plant heat stress compared to a high CO2 world with no geoengineering. All models show that uniform solar geoengineering in G1 cannot simultaneously return regional and global temperature and hydrologic cycle intensity to preindustrial levels.

  15. Airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease - model intercomparison

    SciTech Connect

    Gloster, J; Jones, A; Redington, A; Burgin, L; Sorensen, J H; Turner, R; Dillon, M; Hullinger, P; Simpson, M; Astrup, P; Garner, G; Stewart, P; D'Amours, R; Sellers, R; Paton, D

    2008-09-04

    Foot-and-mouth disease is a highly infectious vesicular disease of cloven-hoofed animals caused by foot-and-mouth disease virus. It spreads by direct contact between animals, by animal products (milk, meat and semen), by mechanical transfer on people or fomites and by the airborne route - with the relative importance of each mechanism depending on the particular outbreak characteristics. Over the years a number of workers have developed or adapted atmospheric dispersion models to assess the risk of foot-and-mouth disease virus spread through the air. Six of these models were compared at a workshop hosted by the Institute for Animal Health/Met Office during 2008. A number of key issues emerged from the workshop and subsequent modelling work: (1) in general all of the models predicted similar directions for 'at risk' livestock with much of the remaining differences strongly related to differences in the meteorological data used; (2) determination of an accurate sequence of events is highly important, especially if the meteorological conditions vary substantially during the virus emission period; and (3) differences in assumptions made about virus release, environmental fate, and subsequent infection can substantially modify the size and location of the downwind risk area. Close relationships have now been established between participants, which in the event of an outbreak of disease could be readily activated to supply advice or modelling support.

  16. Intercomparison of garnet barometers and implications for garnet mixing models

    SciTech Connect

    Anovitz, L.M.; Essene, E.J.

    1985-01-01

    Several well-calibrated barometers are available in the system Ca-Fe-Ti-Al-Si-O, including: Alm+3Ru-3Ilm+Sil+2Qtz (GRAIL), 2Alm+Grreverse arrow6Ru=6Ilm+3An+3Qtz (GRIPS); 2Alm+Gr=3Fa+3An (FAG); 3AnGr+Ky+Qtz (GASP); 2Fs-Fa+Qtz (FFQ); and Gr+Qtz=An+2Wo (WAGS). GRIPS, GRAIL and GASP form a linearly dependent set such that any two should yield the third given an a/X model for the grossular/almandine solid-solution. Application to barometry of garnet granulite assemblages from the Grenville in Ontario yields average pressures 0.1 kb lower for GRIPS and 0.4 kb higher for FAGS using our mixing model. Results from Parry Island, Ontario, yield 8.7 kb from GRAIL as opposed to 9.1 kb using Ganguly and Saxena's model. For GASP, Parry Island assemblages yield 8.4 kb with the authors calibration. Ganguly and Saxena's model gives 5.4 kb using Gasparik's reversals and 8.1 kb using the position of GASP calculated from GRIPS and GRAIL. These corrections allow GRIPS, GRAIL, GASP and FAGS to yield consistent pressures to +/- 0.5 kb in regional metamorphic terranes. Application of their mixing model outside of the fitted range 700-1000 K is not encouraged as extrapolation may yield erroneous results.

  17. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6). Simulation Design and Preliminary Results

    SciTech Connect

    Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Robock, Alan; Tilmes, S.; Boucher, Olivier; English, J.; Irvine, Peter; Jones, Andrew; Lawrence, M. G.; Maccracken, Michael C.; Muri, Helene O.; Moore, John; Niemeier, Ulrike; Phipps, Steven; Sillmann, Jana; Storelvmo, Trude; Wang, Hailong; Watanabe, Shingo

    2015-10-27

    We present a suite of new climate model experiment designs for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). This set of experiments, named GeoMIP6 (to be consistent with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), builds on the previous GeoMIP project simulations, and has been expanded to address several further important topics, including key uncertainties in extreme events, the use of geoengineering as part of a portfolio of responses to climate change, and the relatively new idea of cirrus cloud thinning to allow more longwave radiation to escape to space. We discuss experiment designs, as well as the rationale for those designs, showing preliminary results from individual models when available. We also introduce a new feature, called the GeoMIP Testbed, which provides a platform for simulations that will be performed with a few models and subsequently assessed to determine whether the proposed experiment designs will be adopted as core (Tier 1) GeoMIP experiments. This is meant to encourage various stakeholders to propose new targeted experiments that address their key open science questions, with the goal of making GeoMIP more relevant to a broader set of communities.

  18. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): simulation design and preliminary results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kravitz, B.; Robock, A.; Tilmes, S.; Boucher, O.; English, J. M.; Irvine, P. J.; Jones, A.; Lawrence, M. G.; MacCracken, M.; Muri, H.; Moore, J. C.; Niemeier, U.; Phipps, S. J.; Sillmann, J.; Storelvmo, T.; Wang, H.; Watanabe, S.

    2015-06-01

    We present a suite of new climate model experiment designs for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). This set of experiments, named GeoMIP6 (to be consistent with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), builds on the previous GeoMIP simulations, and has been expanded to address several further important topics, including key uncertainties in extreme events, the use of geoengineering as part of a portfolio of responses to climate change, and the relatively new idea of cirrus cloud thinning to allow more longwave radiation to escape to space. We discuss experiment designs, as well as the rationale for those designs, showing preliminary results from individual models when available. We also introduce a new feature, called the GeoMIP Testbed, which provides a platform for simulations that will be performed with a few models and subsequently assessed to determine whether the proposed experiment designs will be adopted as core (Tier 1) GeoMIP experiments. This is meant to encourage various stakeholders to propose new targeted experiments that address their key open science questions, with the goal of making GeoMIP more relevant to a broader set of communities.

  19. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): simulation design and preliminary results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kravitz, B.; Robock, A.; Tilmes, S.; Boucher, O.; English, J. M.; Irvine, P. J.; Jones, A.; Lawrence, M. G.; MacCracken, M.; Muri, H.; Moore, J. C.; Niemeier, U.; Phipps, S. J.; Sillmann, J.; Storelvmo, T.; Wang, H.; Watanabe, S.

    2015-10-01

    We present a suite of new climate model experiment designs for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). This set of experiments, named GeoMIP6 (to be consistent with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), builds on the previous GeoMIP project simulations, and has been expanded to address several further important topics, including key uncertainties in extreme events, the use of geoengineering as part of a portfolio of responses to climate change, and the relatively new idea of cirrus cloud thinning to allow more longwave radiation to escape to space. We discuss experiment designs, as well as the rationale for those designs, showing preliminary results from individual models when available. We also introduce a new feature, called the GeoMIP Testbed, which provides a platform for simulations that will be performed with a few models and subsequently assessed to determine whether the proposed experiment designs will be adopted as core (Tier 1) GeoMIP experiments. This is meant to encourage various stakeholders to propose new targeted experiments that address their key open science questions, with the goal of making GeoMIP more relevant to a broader set of communities.

  20. Grene-Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project in Arctic (GTMIP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saito, K.; Miyazaki, S.; Mori, J.; Ise, T.; Yamazaki, T.; Arakida, H.

    2014-12-01

    The GTMIP, a part of the terrestrial branch on Japan-funded Arctic Climate Change Research (GRENE-TEA), aims to 1) enhance communications and understanding of the "mind and hands" between the modeling and field scientists, and 2) assess the uncertainty and variations stemmed from the model implementation/designation, and the variability due to climatic and historical conditions among the Arctic terrestrial regions. The target metrics cover both physics and biogeochemistry such as snow, permafrost, hydrology, and carbon budget. The MIP consists of two stages: one-dimensional, historical GRENE-TEA site evaluations (stage 1) and circumpolar evaluations using projected climate change data from GCM outputs (stage 2). At the current stage 1, forcing and validation data are prepared, taking maximum advantage of the observation data taken at GRENE-TEA sites (e.g., Fairbanks in Alaska, Yakutsk and Tiksi in Russia, and Kevo in Finland), to evaluate the inter-model and inter-site variations. Since the observation data are prone to missing or lack of the consistency, and not ready to drive the numerical model directly, we create continuous forcing data (called version 0) derived from the reanalysis product (i.e. ERA-interim) with monthly bias corrections using the CRU (for temperature) and GPCP (for precipitation) datasets taken from the respectively nearest grid to the GRENE-TEA sites. Then, it is modified to reflect the local characteristics (version 1), and, in addition, replaced with the observed data (version 1 with obs). These data are partly open at Arctic Data Archive System. The project is open to any modelers who are interested, and welcomes participation of wide range of the terrestrial models possibly with different levels of complexity and philosophy.

  1. Intercomparison among plasma wake models for plasmaspheric and ionospheric conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Samir, U.; Comfort, R. H.; Wright, K. H., Jr.; Stone, N. H.

    1987-01-01

    The angular distributions of ions in the wake of a body moving through a space plasma computed from three different models are compared in order to investigate wake current depletion ratios under conditions simulating the topside ionosphere and plasmasphere. Results demonstrate the importance of taking into account the thermal flux at low Mach numbers and the angular acceptance of ion detectors in making theory-experiment comparisons. For all models considered, gradients in the angular variations of the fluxes are shown to be steeper near the wake-ambient interface than closer to the maximum rarefaction region.

  2. Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models for precipitation forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richard, E.; Cosma, S.; Benoit, R.; Binder, P.; Buzzi, A.; Kaufmann, P.

    In the framework of the RAPHAEL EU project, a series of past heavy precipitation events has been simulated with different meteorological models. Rainfall hindcasts and forecasts have been produced by four models in use at various meteorological services or research centres of Italy, Canada, France and Switzerland. The paper is focused on the comparison of the computed precipitation fields with the available surface observations. The comparison is carried out for three meteorological situations which lead to severe flashflood over the Toce-Ticino catchment in Italy (6599 km2) or the Ammer catchment (709 km2) in Germany. The results show that all four models reproduced the occurrence of these heavy precipitation events. The accuracy of the computed precipitation appears to be more case-dependent than model-dependent. The sensitivity of the computed rainfall to the boundary conditions (hindcast v. forecast) was found to be rather weak, indicating that a flood forecasting system based upon a numerical meteo-hydrological simulation could be feasible in an operational context.

  3. Intercomparison of the Cloud Water Phase among Global Climate Models

    SciTech Connect

    Komurcu, Muge; Storelvmo, Trude; Tan, Ivy; Lohmann, U.; Yun, Yuxing; Penner, Joyce E.; Wang, Yong; Liu, Xiaohong; Takemura, T.

    2014-03-27

    Mixed-phase clouds (clouds that consist of both cloud droplets and ice crystals) are frequently present in the Earth’s atmosphere and influence the Earth’s energy budget through their radiative properties, which are highly dependent on the cloud water phase. In this study, the phase partitioning of cloud water is compared among six global climate models (GCMs) and with Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization retrievals. It is found that the GCMs predict vastly different distributions of cloud phase for a given temperature, and none of them are capable of reproducing the spatial distribution or magnitude of the observed phase partitioning. While some GCMs produced liquid water paths comparable to satellite observations, they all failed to preserve sufficient liquid water at mixed-phase cloud temperatures. Our results suggest that validating GCMs using only the vertically integrated water contents could lead to amplified differences in cloud radiative feedback. The sensitivity of the simulated cloud phase in GCMs to the choice of heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterization is also investigated. The response to a change in ice nucleation is quite different for each GCM, and the implementation of the same ice nucleation parameterization in all models does not reduce the spread in simulated phase among GCMs. The results suggest that processes subsequent to ice nucleation are at least as important in determining phase and should be the focus of future studies aimed at understanding and reducing differences among the models.

  4. Arctic pathways of Pacific Water: Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aksenov, Yevgeny; Karcher, Michael; Proshutinsky, Andrey; Gerdes, Rüdiger; de Cuevas, Beverly; Golubeva, Elena; Kauker, Frank; Nguyen, An T.; Platov, Gennady A.; Wadley, Martin; Watanabe, Eiji; Coward, Andrew C.; Nurser, A. J. George

    2016-01-01

    Pacific Water (PW) enters the Arctic Ocean through Bering Strait and brings in heat, fresh water, and nutrients from the northern Bering Sea. The circulation of PW in the central Arctic Ocean is only partially understood due to the lack of observations. In this paper, pathways of PW are investigated using simulations with six state-of-the art regional and global Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs). In the simulations, PW is tracked by a passive tracer, released in Bering Strait. Simulated PW spreads from the Bering Strait region in three major branches. One of them starts in the Barrow Canyon, bringing PW along the continental slope of Alaska into the Canadian Straits and then into Baffin Bay. The second begins in the vicinity of the Herald Canyon and transports PW along the continental slope of the East Siberian Sea into the Transpolar Drift, and then through Fram Strait and the Greenland Sea. The third branch begins near the Herald Shoal and the central Chukchi shelf and brings PW into the Beaufort Gyre. In the models, the wind, acting via Ekman pumping, drives the seasonal and interannual variability of PW in the Canadian Basin of the Arctic Ocean. The wind affects the simulated PW pathways by changing the vertical shear of the relative vorticity of the ocean flow in the Canada Basin.

  5. Aviation Fuel Tracer Simulation: Model Intercomparison and Implications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Danilin, M. Y.; Fahey, D. W.; Schumann, U.; Prather, M. J.; Penner, J. E.; Ko, M. K. W.; Weisenstein, D. K.; Jackman, C. H.; Pitari, G.; Koehler, I.; Sausen, R.; Weaver, C. J.; Douglass, A. R.; Connell, P. S.; Kinnison, D. E.; Dentener, F. J.; Fleming, E. L.; Berntsen, T. K.; Isaksen, I. S. A.

    1998-01-01

    An upper limit for aircraft-produced perturbations to aerosols and gaseous exhaust products in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) is derived using the 1992 aviation fuel tracer simulation performed by eleven global atmospheric models. Key findings are that subsonic aircraft emissions: (1) have not been responsible for the observed water vapor trends at 40degN; (2) could be a significant source of soot mass near 12 km, but not at 20 km; (3) might cause a noticeable increase in the background sulfate aerosol surface area and number densities (but not mass density) near the northern mid-latitude tropopause; and (4) could provide a global, annual mean top of the atmosphere radiative forcing up to +0.006 W/sq m and -0.013 W/sq m due to emitted soot and sulfur, respectively.

  6. Satellite-Model-Ground-based Inter-Comparisons (WG-3)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kahn, Ralph A.

    2014-01-01

    AERO-SAT is an international consortium of experts on aerosol remote sensing from ground and space. This initiative was established in 2013 (1) to accelerate the exchange of ideas and concepts and (2) to elevate the capabilities of satellite sensorsretrieval (aerosol) products, which are needed to constrain aerosol processing in and assist in evaluations of global modeling. The main goal of the meeting is to substantiate and invigorate the five AEROSAT working groups. On each of those five topics dedicated working groups are building up and will report on their initial activities followed by further related presentations and ample time for discussions. Organizers of the meeting held September 27-28, 2014 would like to post the presentations to a website.

  7. Aviation Fuel Tracer Simulation: Model Intercomparison and Implications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Danilin, M. Y.; Fahey, D. W.; Schumann, U.; Prather, M. J.; Penner, J. E.; Ko, M. K. W.; Weisenstein, D. K.; Jackman, C. H.; Pitari, G.; Koehler, I.; Sausen, R.; Weaver, C. J.; Douglass, A. R.; Connell, P. S.; Kinnison, D. E.; Dentener, F. J.; Fleming, E. L.; Berntsen, T. K.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Haywood, J. M.

    1998-01-01

    An upper limit for aircraft-produced perturbations to aerosols and gaseous exhaust products in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) is derived using the 1992 aviation fuel tracer simulation performed by eleven global atmospheric models. Key Endings are that subsonic aircraft emissions: (1) have not be responsible for the observed water vapor trends at 40 deg N; (2) could be a significant source of soot mass near 12 km, but not at 20 km; (3) might cause a noticeable increase in the background sulfate aerosol surface area and number densities (but not mass density) near the northern mid-latitude tropopause; and (4) could provide a global, annual mean top of the atmosphere radiative forcing up to +0.006 W/sq m and -0.013 W/sq m due to emitted soot and sulfur, respectively.

  8. Interannual tropical rainfall variability in general circulation model simulations associated with the atmospheric model intercomparison project

    SciTech Connect

    Sperber, K.R.; Palmer, T.N.

    1996-11-01

    The interannual variability of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, the African Sahel, and the Nordeste region of Brazil have been evaluated in 32 models for the period 1979 - 88 as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall are the most readily captured, owing to the intimate link with Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The precipitation variations over India and the Sahel are less well simulated. Additionally, an Indian monsoon wind shear index was calculated for each model. This subset of models also had a rainfall climatology that was in better agreement with observations, indicating a link between systematic model error and the ability to simulate interannual variations. A suite of six European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) AMIP runs (differing only in their initial conditions) have also been examined. As observed, all-India rainfall was enhanced in 1988 relative to 1987 in each of these realizations. All-India rainfall variability during other years showed little or no predictability, possibly due to internal chaotic dynamics associated with intraseasonal monsoon fluctuations and/or unpredictable land surface process interactions. The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall were best represented. The State University of New York at Albany /National Center for Atmospheric Research Genesis model was run in five initial condition realizations. In this model, the Nordeste rainfall variability was also best reproduced. However, for all regions the skill was less than that of the ECMWF model. The relationships of the all-India and Sahel rainfall/SST teleconnections with horizontal resolution, convection scheme closure, and numerics have been evaluated. 64 refs., 13 figs., 3 tabs.

  9. Intercomparison of Surface Energy Fluxes Estimates from the FEST-EWB and TSEB Models over the Heterogeneous REFLEX 2012 Site (Barrax, Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbari, Chiara; Timmermans, Wim; Andreu, Ana

    2015-12-01

    An intercomparison between the Energy Water Balance model (FEST-EWB) and the Two-Source Energy Balance model (TSEB) is performed over a heterogeneous agricultural area. TSEB is a residual model which uses Land Surface Temperature (LST) from remote sensing as a main input parameter so that energy fluxes are computed instantaneously at the time of data acquisition. FEST-EWB is a hydrological model that predicts soil moisture and the surface energy fluxes on a continuous basis. LST is then a modelled variable. Ground and remote sensing data from the Regional Experiments For Land-atmosphere Exchanges (REFLEX) campaign in 2012 in Barrax gave the opportunity to validate and compare spatially distributed energy fluxes. The output of both models matches the ground observations quite well. However, a spatial analysis reveals significant differences between the two approaches for latent and sensible heat fluxes over relatively small fields characterized by high heterogeneity in vegetation cover.

  10. The POLARCAT Model Intercomparison Project (POLMIP): overview and evaluation with observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emmons, L. K.; Arnold, S. R.; Monks, S. A.; Huijnen, V.; Tilmes, S.; Law, K. S.; Thomas, J. L.; Raut, J.-C.; Bouarar, I.; Turquety, S.; Long, Y.; Duncan, B.; Steenrod, S.; Strode, S.; Flemming, J.; Mao, J.; Langner, J.; Thompson, A. M.; Tarasick, D.; Apel, E. C.; Blake, D. R.; Cohen, R. C.; Dibb, J.; Diskin, G. S.; Fried, A.; Hall, S. R.; Huey, L. G.; Weinheimer, A. J.; Wisthaler, A.; Mikoviny, T.; Nowak, J.; Peischl, J.; Roberts, J. M.; Ryerson, T.; Warneke, C.; Helmig, D.

    2015-06-01

    A model intercomparison activity was inspired by the large suite of observations of atmospheric composition made during the International Polar Year (2008) in the Arctic. Nine global and two regional chemical transport models participated in this intercomparison and performed simulations for 2008 using a common emissions inventory to assess the differences in model chemistry and transport schemes. This paper summarizes the models and compares their simulations of ozone and its precursors and presents an evaluation of the simulations using a variety of surface, balloon, aircraft and satellite observations. Each type of measurement has some limitations in spatial or temporal coverage or in composition, but together they assist in quantifying the limitations of the models in the Arctic and surrounding regions. Despite using the same emissions, large differences are seen among the models. The cloud fields and photolysis rates are shown to vary greatly among the models, indicating one source of the differences in the simulated chemical species. The largest differences among models, and between models and observations, are in NOy partitioning (PAN vs. HNO3) and in oxygenated volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as acetaldehyde and acetone. Comparisons to surface site measurements of ethane and propane indicate that the emissions of these species are significantly underestimated. Satellite observations of NO2 from the OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) have been used to evaluate the models over source regions, indicating anthropogenic emissions are underestimated in East Asia, but fire emissions are generally overestimated. The emission factors for wildfires in Canada are evaluated using the correlations of VOCs to CO in the model output in comparison to enhancement factors derived from aircraft observations, showing reasonable agreement for methanol and acetaldehyde but underestimate ethanol, propane and acetone, while overestimating ethane emission factors.

  11. A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment designed for climate and chemistry models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tilmes, S.; Mills, M. J.; Niemeier, U.; Schmidt, H.; Robock, A.; Kravitz, B.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Pitari, G.; English, J. M.

    2014-08-01

    A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment "G4 specified stratospheric aerosols" (short name: G4SSA) is proposed to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on atmospheric composition, climate, and the environment. In contrast to the earlier G4 GeoMIP experiment, which requires an emission of sulphur dioxide (SO2) into the model, a prescribed aerosol forcing file is provided to the community, to be consistently applied to future model experiments between 2020 and 2100. This stratospheric aerosol distribution, with a total burden of about 2 Tg S has been derived using the ECHAM5-HAM microphysical model, based on a continuous annual tropical emission of 8 Tg SO2 year-1. A ramp-up of geoengineering in 2020 and a ramp-down in 2070 over a period of two years are included in the distribution, while a background aerosol burden should be used for the last 3 decades of the experiment. The performance of this experiment using climate and chemistry models in a multi-model comparison framework will allow us to better understand the significance of the impact of geoengineering and the abrupt termination after 50 years on climate and composition of the atmosphere in a changing environment. The zonal and monthly mean stratospheric aerosol input dataset is available at https://www2.acd.ucar.edu/gcm/geomip-g4-specified-stratospheric-aerosol-data-set.

  12. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: scientific objectives and experimental design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark A.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich

    2016-03-01

    The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, as well as their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for climate model experiments in Phase 2. Following on from PlioMIP Phase 1, Phase 2 will continue to be a mechanism for sampling structural uncertainty within climate models. However, Phase 1 demonstrated the requirement to better understand boundary condition uncertainties as well as uncertainty in the methodologies used for data-model comparison. Therefore, our strategy for Phase 2 is to utilize state-of-the-art boundary conditions that have emerged over the last 5 years. These include a new palaeogeographic reconstruction, detailing ocean bathymetry and land-ice surface topography. The ice surface topography is built upon the lessons learned from offline ice sheet modelling studies. Land surface cover has been enhanced by recent additions of Pliocene soils and lakes. Atmospheric reconstructions of palaeo-CO2 are emerging on orbital timescales, and these are also incorporated into PlioMIP Phase 2. New records of surface and sea surface temperature change are being produced that will be more temporally consistent with the boundary conditions and forcings used within models. Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.

  13. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark A.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, as well as their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for climate model experiments in Phase 2. Following on from PlioMIP Phase 1, Phase 2 will continue to be a mechanism for sampling structural uncertainty within climate models. However, Phase 1 demonstrated the requirement to better understand boundary condition uncertainties as well as uncertainty in the methodologies used for data-model comparison. Therefore, our strategy for Phase 2 is to utilize state-of-the-art boundary conditions that have emerged over the last 5 years. These include a new palaeogeographic reconstruction, detailing ocean bathymetry and land-ice surface topography. The ice surface topography is built upon the lessons learned from offline ice sheet modelling studies. Land surface cover has been enhanced by recent additions of Pliocene soils and lakes. Atmospheric reconstructions of palaeo-CO2 are emerging on orbital timescales, and these are also incorporated into PlioMIP Phase 2. New records of surface and sea surface temperature change are being produced that will be more temporally consistent with the boundary conditions and forcings used within models. Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.

  14. Representing Extremes in Agricultural Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex

    2015-01-01

    AgMIP and related projects are conducting several activities to understand and improve crop model response to extreme events. This involves crop model studies as well as the generation of climate datasets and scenarios more capable of capturing extremes. Models are typically less responsive to extreme events than we observe, and miss several forms of extreme events. Models also can capture interactive effects between climate change and climate extremes. Additional work is needed to understand response of markets and economic systems to food shocks. AgMIP is planning a Coordinated Global and Regional Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Production and Food Security with an aim to inform the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

  15. A model inter-comparison study to examine limiting factors in modelling Australian tropical savannas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitley, R.; Beringer, J.; Hutley, L.; Abramowitz, G.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Duursma, R.; Evans, B.; Haverd, V.; Li, L.; Ryu, Y.; Smith, B.; Wang, Y.-P.; Williams, M.; Yu, Q.

    2015-12-01

    Savanna ecosystems are one of the most dominant and complex terrestrial biomes that derives from a distinct vegetative surface comprised of co-dominant tree and grass populations. While these two vegetation types co-exist functionally, demographically they are not static, but are dynamically changing in response to environmental forces such as annual fire events and rainfall variability. Modelling savanna environments with the current generation of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) has presented many problems, particularly describing fire frequency and intensity, phenology, leaf biochemistry of C3 and C4 photosynthesis vegetation, and root water uptake. In order to better understand why TBMs perform so poorly in savannas, we conducted a model inter-comparison of 6 TBMs and assessed their performance at simulating latent energy (LE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) for five savanna sites along a rainfall gradient in northern Australia. Performance in predicting LE and GPP was measured using an empirical benchmarking system, which ranks models by their ability to utilise meteorological driving information to predict the fluxes. On average, the TBMs performed as well as a multi-linear regression of the fluxes against solar radiation, temperature and vapour pressure deficit, but were outperformed by a more complicated nonlinear response model that also included the leaf area index (LAI). This identified that the TBMs are not fully utilising their input information effectively in determining savanna LE and GPP, and highlights that savanna dynamics cannot be calibrated into models and that there are problems in underlying model processes. We identified key weaknesses in a model's ability to simulate savanna fluxes and their seasonal variation, related to the representation of vegetation by the models and root water uptake. We underline these weaknesses in terms of three critical areas for development. First, prescribed tree-rooting depths must be deep enough

  16. Modeling snowpack evolution in complex terrain and forested Central Rockies: A model inter-comparison study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, F.; Barlage, M. J.; Tewari, M.; Rasmussen, R.; Bao, Y.; Jin, J.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Livneh, B.; Lin, C.; Miguez-Macho, G.; Niu, G.; Wen, L.; Yang, Z.

    2011-12-01

    The timing and amount of spring snowmelt runoff in mountainous regions are critical for water resources and managements. Correctly capturing the snow-atmospheric interactions (through albedo and surface energy partitioning) is also important for weather and climate models. This study developed a unique, integrated data set including one-year (2007-2008) snow water equivalent (SWE) observations from 112 SNOTEL sites in the Colorado Headwaters region, 2004-2008 observations (surface heat fluxes, radiation budgets, soil temperature and moisture) from two AmeriFlux sites (Niwot Ridge and GLEES), MODIS snow cover, and river discharge. These observations were used to evaluate the ability of six widely-used land-surface/snow models (Noah, Noah-MP, VIC, CLM, SAST, and LEAF-2) in simulating the seasonal evolution of snowpacks in central Rockies. The overarching goals of this community undertaking are to: 1) understand key processes controlling the evolution of snowpack in this complex terrain and forested region through analyzing field data and various components of snow physics in these models, and 2) improve snowpack modeling in weather and climate models. This comprehensive data set allowed us to address issues that had not been possible in previous snow-model inter-comparison investigations (e.g., SnowMIPs). For instance, models displayed a large disparity in treating radiation and turbulence processes within vegetation canopies. Some models with an overly simplified tree-canopy treatment need to raise snow albedo helped to retain snow on the ground during melting phase. However, comparing modeled radiation and heat fluxes to long-term observations revealed that too-high albedo reduced 75% of solar energy absorbed by the forested surface and resulted in too-low surface sensible heat and longwave radiation returned to the atmosphere, which could be a crucial deficiency for coupled weather and climate models. Large differences were found in simulated SWE by the six LSMs

  17. A model inter-comparison study to examine limiting factors in modelling Australian tropical savannas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitley, Rhys; Beringer, Jason; Hutley, Lindsay B.; Abramowitz, Gab; De Kauwe, Martin G.; Duursma, Remko; Evans, Bradley; Haverd, Vanessa; Li, Longhui; Ryu, Youngryel; Smith, Benjamin; Wang, Ying-Ping; Williams, Mathew; Yu, Qiang

    2016-06-01

    The savanna ecosystem is one of the most dominant and complex terrestrial biomes, deriving from a distinct vegetative surface comprised of co-dominant tree and grass populations. While these two vegetation types co-exist functionally, demographically they are not static but are dynamically changing in response to environmental forces such as annual fire events and rainfall variability. Modelling savanna environments with the current generation of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) has presented many problems, particularly describing fire frequency and intensity, phenology, leaf biochemistry of C3 and C4 photosynthesis vegetation, and root-water uptake. In order to better understand why TBMs perform so poorly in savannas, we conducted a model inter-comparison of six TBMs and assessed their performance at simulating latent energy (LE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) for five savanna sites along a rainfall gradient in northern Australia. Performance in predicting LE and GPP was measured using an empirical benchmarking system, which ranks models by their ability to utilise meteorological driving information to predict the fluxes. On average, the TBMs performed as well as a multi-linear regression of the fluxes against solar radiation, temperature and vapour pressure deficit but were outperformed by a more complicated nonlinear response model that also included the leaf area index (LAI). This identified that the TBMs are not fully utilising their input information effectively in determining savanna LE and GPP and highlights that savanna dynamics cannot be calibrated into models and that there are problems in underlying model processes. We identified key weaknesses in a model's ability to simulate savanna fluxes and their seasonal variation, related to the representation of vegetation by the models and root-water uptake. We underline these weaknesses in terms of three critical areas for development. First, prescribed tree-rooting depths must be deep enough

  18. The GRENE-TEA Model Intercomparison Project (GTMIP) stage 1 forcing dataset

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sueyoshi, T.; Saito, K.; Miyazaki, S.; Mori, J.; Ise, T.; Arakida, H.; Suzuki, R.; Sato, A.; Iijima, Y.; Yabuki, H.; Ikawa, H.; Ohta, T.; Kotani, A.; Hajima, T.; Sato, H.; Yamazaki, T.; Sugimoto, A.

    2015-08-01

    Here, the authors describe the construction of a forcing dataset for Land Surface Models (including both physical and biogeochemical models; LSMs) with eight meteorological variables for the 35 year period from 1979 to 2013. The dataset is intended for use in a model intercomparison (MIP) study, called GTMIP, which is a part of the Japanese-funded Arctic Climate Change research project. In order to prepare a set of site-fitted forcing data for LSMs with realistic yet continuous entries (i.e. without missing data), four observational sites across the pan-Arctic region (Fairbanks, Tiksi, Yakutsk, and Kevo) were selected to construct a blended dataset using both global reanalysis and observational data. Marked improvements were found in the diurnal cycles of surface air temperature and humidity, wind speed, and precipitation. The datasets and participation in GTMIP are open to the scientific community (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/gtmip/gtmip.html).

  19. Modeling agriculture in the Community Land Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drewniak, B.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Jacob, R.

    2013-04-01

    The potential impact of climate change on agriculture is uncertain. In addition, agriculture could influence above- and below-ground carbon storage. Development of models that represent agriculture is necessary to address these impacts. We have developed an approach to integrate agriculture representations for three crop types - maize, soybean, and spring wheat - into the coupled carbon-nitrogen version of the Community Land Model (CLM), to help address these questions. Here we present the new model, CLM-Crop, validated against observations from two AmeriFlux sites in the United States, planted with maize and soybean. Seasonal carbon fluxes compared well with field measurements for soybean, but not as well for maize. CLM-Crop yields were comparable with observations in countries such as the United States, Argentina, and China, although the generality of the crop model and its lack of technology and irrigation made direct comparison difficult. CLM-Crop was compared against the standard CLM3.5, which simulates crops as grass. The comparison showed improvement in gross primary productivity in regions where crops are the dominant vegetation cover. Crop yields and productivity were negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with precipitation, in agreement with other modeling studies. In case studies with the new crop model looking at impacts of residue management and planting date on crop yield, we found that increased residue returned to the litter pool increased crop yield, while reduced residue returns resulted in yield decreases. Using climate controls to signal planting date caused different responses in different crops. Maize and soybean had opposite reactions: when low temperature threshold resulted in early planting, maize responded with a loss of yield, but soybean yields increased. Our improvements in CLM demonstrate a new capability in the model - simulating agriculture in a realistic way, complete with fertilizer and residue management

  20. Extending the Agricultural Extension Model. Preliminary Draft.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rogers, Everett M.; And Others

    The purposes of this report are: to describe the main elements of the U.S. agricultural extension model and its effects on the agricultural revolution; to analyze attempts to extend this model to non-agricultural technology and/or to less developed countries; and to draw general conclusions about the diffusion of technological innovations, with…

  1. Modeling agriculture in the Community Land Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drewniak, B.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Jacob, R.

    2012-12-01

    The potential impact of climate change on agriculture is uncertain. In addition, agriculture could influence above- and below-ground carbon storage. Development of models that represent agriculture is necessary to address these impacts. We have developed an approach to integrate agriculture representations for three crop types - maize, soybean, and spring wheat - into the coupled carbon-nitrogen version of the Community Land Model (CLM), to help address these questions. Here we present the new model, CLM-Crop, validated against observations from two AmeriFlux sites in the United States, planted with maize and soybean. Seasonal carbon fluxes compared well with field measurements. CLM-Crop yields were comparable with observations in some regions, although the generality of the crop model and its lack of technology and irrigation made direct comparison difficult. CLM-Crop was compared against the standard CLM3.5, which simulates crops as grass. The comparison showed improvement in gross primary productivity in regions where crops are the dominant vegetation cover. Crop yields and productivity were negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with precipitation. In case studies with the new crop model looking at impacts of residue management and planting date on crop yield, we found that increased residue returned to the litter pool increased crop yield, while reduced residue returns resulted in yield decreases. Using climate controls to signal planting date caused different responses in different crops. Maize and soybean had opposite reactions: when low temperature threshold resulted in early planting, maize responded with a loss of yield, but soybean yields increased. Our improvements in CLM demonstrate a new capability in the model - simulating agriculture in a realistic way, complete with fertilizer and residue management practices. Results are encouraging, with improved representation of human influences on the land surface and the potentially

  2. Intercomparison of state-of-the-art models for wind energy resources with mesoscale models:

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Sempreviva, Anna Maria; Badger, Jake; Joergensen, Hans E.

    2016-04-01

    vertical resolution, model parameterizations, surface roughness length) that could be used to group the various models and interpret the results of the intercomparison. 3. Main body abstract Twenty separate entries were received by the deadline of 31 March 2015. They included simulations done with various versions of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, but also of six other well-known mesoscale models. The various entries represent an excellent sample of the various models used in by the wind energy industry today. The analysis of the submitted time series included comparison to observations, summarized with well-known measures such as biases, RMSE, correlations, and of sector-wise statistics, e.g. frequency and Weibull A and k. The comparison also includes the observed and modeled temporal spectra. The various statistics were grouped as a function of the various models, their spatial resolution, forcing data, and the various integration methods. Many statistics have been computed and will be presented in addition to those shown in the Helsinki presentation. 4. Conclusions The analysis of the time series from twenty entries has shown to be an invaluable source of information about state of the art in wind modeling with mesoscale models. Biases between the simulated and observed wind speeds at hub heights (80-100 m AGL) from the various models are around ±1.0 m/s and fairly independent of the site and do not seem to be directly related to the model horizontal resolution used in the modeling. As probably expected, the wind speeds from the simulations using the various version of the WRF model cluster close to each other, especially in their description of the wind profile.

  3. Intercomparison of bias-correction methods for monthly temperature and precipitation simulated by multiple climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watanabe, Satoshi; Kanae, Shinjiro; Seto, Shinta; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Oki, Taikan

    2012-12-01

    Bias-correction methods applied to monthly temperature and precipitation data simulated by multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs) are evaluated in this study. Although various methods have been proposed recently, an intercomparison among them using multiple GCM simulations has seldom been reported. Moreover, no previous methods have addressed the issue how to adequately deal with the changes of the statistics of bias-corrected variables from the historical to future simulations. In this study, a new method which conserves the changes of mean and standard deviation of the uncorrected model simulation data is proposed, and then five previous bias-correction methods as well as the proposed new method are intercompared by applying them to monthly temperature and precipitation data simulated from 12 GCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) archives. Parameters of each method are calibrated by using 1948-1972 observed data and validated in the 1974-1998 period. These methods are then applied to the GCM future simulations (2073-2097) and the bias-corrected data are intercompared. For the historical simulations, negligible difference can be found between observed and bias-corrected data. However, the differences in future simulations are large dependent on the characteristics of each method. The new method successfully conserves the changes in the mean, standard deviation and the coefficient of variation before and after bias-correction. The differences of bias-corrected data among methods are discussed according to their respective characteristics. Importantly, this study classifies available correction methods into two distinct categories, and articulates important features for each of them.

  4. Intercomparison of carbon dioxide fluxes and concentrations in the European-Western Siberia region represented by various biospheric models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karstens, U.; Narayan, C.

    2003-04-01

    Intercomparison of the results from different models is an important part of modeling research. To date, several intercomparison work involving a variety of models from various climatic areas, ranging from atmosphere, biogeochemical, ecosystem processes, regional climate, terrestrial biospheres, to ocean general circulation models have been investigated. In today's scientific arena models are important and leading available tools for most, if not all aspects of climate research. Models try to fill the gap where observational data or measurements fail, which is particularly so for future climate predictions. Comparison of models plays a crucial role in testing the reliability of these sophisticated tools. In addition, comparison work provides a better understanding of their capabilities and provides room for their evaluation and improvement, as and when needed. It also enables to determine systematic climate errors of models under realistic conditions. Intercomparison of models can be regarded as one of the important methods to achieve the reliability and accuracy sorted. This research aims to investigate changes in carbon dioxide fluxes and concentrations between vegetation and atmosphere in the European-Western Siberia region as represented by various biospheric models. It is intended that the regional atmospheric climate model REMO, together with four vegetation models: BETHY (Biosphere-Energy-Transfer-Hydrology), TURC (Terrestrial Uptake and Release of Carbon), BIOME-BGC (Biome-Biogeochemistry) and SPLAT (Soil, Plant and Atmosphere Transfer) be used. The ECMWF meteorology will be used to drive the biospheric models to obtain carbon dioxide fluxes. These will be compared with each other and with the measurements. This output data from each biospheric model will then be used as input to the regional atmospheric model REMO to get carbon dioxide concentrations, which will again be compared with each other and with the observations. Keywords: carbondioxide

  5. Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario.

    PubMed

    Vives I Batlle, J; Beresford, N A; Beaugelin-Seiller, K; Bezhenar, R; Brown, J; Cheng, J-J; Ćujić, M; Dragović, S; Duffa, C; Fiévet, B; Hosseini, A; Jung, K T; Kamboj, S; Keum, D-K; Kryshev, A; LePoire, D; Maderich, V; Min, B-I; Periáñez, R; Sazykina, T; Suh, K-S; Yu, C; Wang, C; Heling, R

    2016-03-01

    We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of (90)Sr, (131)I and (137)Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and which uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters. PMID:26717350

  6. An Intercomparison of Model Performance and Uncertainty in Forcing Data for the Mackenzie River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sapriza Azuri, G.; Pedinotti, V.; Chun, K. P.; Davison, B.; Pietroniro, A.; Wheater, H. S.

    2014-12-01

    The Mackenzie River Basin (MRB) in Canada has been the focus of many large scale hydrological models. Significant modelling challenges arise, due to the complexities of the cold region hydrology and the current manifestations of climate warming, including permafrost thaw, increased streamflow, tundra shrub expansion, among other processes. Robust large-scale predictive models are necessary for regional and global impacts assessment, along with proper validation and uncertainty estimation of model structure and forcing data. We present an intercomparison of global model performance on the MRB and analysis of the impact of uncertainty in forcing data. With that purpose, we have implemented for the MRB a large-scale model using the Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire - Surface and Hydrology (MESH) model driven with several gridded forcing data sets. We compare the model performance with the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) models. Results will be presented to illustrate the comparative performance of water balance components and streamflow simulations. As for the uncertainty in forcing data, precipitation has the major impact, especially the rainfall spatial variability.

  7. ISA-MIP: A co-ordinated intercomparison of Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Timmreck, Claudia; Mann, Graham; Aquila, Valentina; Bruehl, Christoph; Chin, Mian; Dohmse, Sandip; English, Jason; Lee, Lindsay; Mills, Michael; Hommel, Rene; Neely, Ryan; Schmidt, Anja; Sheng, Jianxiong; Toohey, Matthew; Weisenstein, Debra

    2016-04-01

    The SPARC activity, "Stratospheric Sulfur and its Role in Climate" (SSiRC) was initiated to coordinate international research activities on modelling and observation of stratospheric sulphate aerosols (and precursor gases) in order to assess its climate forcing and feedback. With several international activities to extend and improve observational stratospheric aerosol capabilities and data sets, and a growing number of global models treating stratospheric aerosol interactively, a new model intercomparison activity "ISA-MIP" has been established in the frame of SSIRC. ISA-MIP will compare interactive stratospheric aerosol (ISA) models using a range of observations to constrain and improve the models and to provide a sound scientific basis for future work. Four ISA-MIP experiments have been designed to assess different periods of the obervational stratospheric aerosol record, and to explore key processes which influence the formation and temporal development of stratospheric aerosol. The "Background" experiment will focus on the role of microphysical and transport processes under volcanically quiescent conditions, where the stratospheric aerosol size distribution is only modulated by seasonal circulations. The "Model intercomparison of Transient Aerosol Record" (MiTAR) experiment will focus on addressing the role of small- to moderate-magnitude volcanic eruptions and transport processes in the upper troposphere - lower stratosphere (UTLS) aerosols loading over the period 1998-2011. Background and MiTAR simulations will be compared to recent in-situ and satellite observations to evaluate the performances of the model and understand their strengths and weaknesses. Two further experiments investigate the radiative forcing from historical major eruptions. The Historical Eruptions SO2 Emission Assessment (HErSEA) will involve models carrying out mini-ensembles of the stratospheric aerosol perturbations from each of the 1963 Agung, 1982 El Chichon and 1991 Pinatubo

  8. The GRENE-TEA Model Intercomparison Project (GTMIP): overview and experiment protocol for Stage 1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miyazaki, S.; Saito, K.; Mori, J.; Yamazaki, T.; Ise, T.; Arakida, H.; Hajima, T.; Iijima, Y.; Machiya, H.; Sueyoshi, T.; Yabuki, H.; Burke, E. J.; Hosaka, M.; Ichii, K.; Ikawa, H.; Ito, A.; Kotani, A.; Matsuura, Y.; Niwano, M.; Nitta, T.; O'ishi, R.; Ohta, T.; Park, H.; Sasai, T.; Sato, A.; Sato, H.; Sugimoto, A.; Suzuki, R.; Tanaka, K.; Yamaguchi, S.; Yoshimura, K.

    2015-04-01

    As part of the terrestrial branch of the Japan-funded Arctic Climate Change Research Project (GRENE-TEA), which aims to clarify the role and function of the Arctic terrestrial system in the climate system, and assess the influence of its changes on a global scale, this model intercomparison project (GTMIP) is planned and being conducted to (1) enhance communication and understanding between the "minds and hands" (i.e., between the modelling and field scientists) and (2) assess the uncertainty and variations stemming from variability in model implementation/design and in model outputs due to climatic and historical conditions in the Arctic terrestrial regions. This paper provides an overview and the experiment protocol of Stage 1 of the project, site simulations driven by statistically fitted data created using the GRENE-TEA site observations for the last three decades. The target metrics for the model evaluation cover key processes in both physics and biogeochemistry, including energy budgets, snow, permafrost, phenology, and carbon budgets. The preliminary results on four metrics (annual mean latent heat flux, annual maximum snow depth, gross primary production, and net ecosystem production) already demonstrate the range of variations in reproducibility among existing models and sites. Full analysis on annual as well as seasonal time scales, to be conducted upon completion of model outputs submission, will delineate inter-dependence among the key processes, and provide the clue for improving the model performance.

  9. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eyring, Veronika; Bony, Sandrine; Meehl, Gerald A.; Senior, Catherine A.; Stevens, Bjorn; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Taylor, Karl E.

    2016-05-01

    By coordinating the design and distribution of global climate model simulations of the past, current, and future climate, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has become one of the foundational elements of climate science. However, the need to address an ever-expanding range of scientific questions arising from more and more research communities has made it necessary to revise the organization of CMIP. After a long and wide community consultation, a new and more federated structure has been put in place. It consists of three major elements: (1) a handful of common experiments, the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) and CMIP historical simulations (1850-near present) that will maintain continuity and help document basic characteristics of models across different phases of CMIP; (2) common standards, coordination, infrastructure, and documentation that will facilitate the distribution of model outputs and the characterization of the model ensemble; and (3) an ensemble of CMIP-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) that will be specific to a particular phase of CMIP (now CMIP6) and that will build on the DECK and CMIP historical simulations to address a large range of specific questions and fill the scientific gaps of the previous CMIP phases. The DECK and CMIP historical simulations, together with the use of CMIP data standards, will be the entry cards for models participating in CMIP. Participation in CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs by individual modelling groups will be at their own discretion and will depend on their scientific interests and priorities. With the Grand Science Challenges of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) as its scientific backdrop, CMIP6 will address three broad questions: - How does the Earth system respond to forcing? - What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? - How can we assess future climate changes given internal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in

  10. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organisation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eyring, V.; Bony, S.; Meehl, G. A.; Senior, C.; Stevens, B.; Stouffer, R. J.; Taylor, K. E.

    2015-12-01

    By coordinating the design and distribution of global climate model simulations of the past, current and future climate, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has become one of the foundational elements of climate science. However, the need to address an ever-expanding range of scientific questions arising from more and more research communities has made it necessary to revise the organization of CMIP. After a long and wide community consultation, a new and more federated structure has been put in place. It consists of three major elements: (1) a handful of common experiments, the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments) and the CMIP Historical Simulation (1850-near-present) that will maintain continuity and help document basic characteristics of models across different phases of CMIP, (2) common standards, coordination, infrastructure and documentation that will facilitate the distribution of model outputs and the characterization of the model ensemble, and (3) an ensemble of CMIP-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) that will be specific to a particular phase of CMIP (now CMIP6) and that will build on the DECK and the CMIP Historical Simulation to address a large range of specific questions and fill the scientific gaps of the previous CMIP phases. The DECK and CMIP Historical Simulation, together with the use of CMIP data standards, will be the entry cards for models participating in CMIP. The participation in the CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs will be at the discretion of the modelling groups, and will depend on scientific interests and priorities. With the Grand Science Challenges of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) as its scientific backdrop, CMIP6 will address three broad questions: (i) how does the Earth system respond to forcing?, (ii) what are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?, and (iii) how can we assess future climate changes given climate variability, predictability and

  11. The GRENE-TEA model intercomparison project (GTMIP): overview and experiment protocol for Stage 1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miyazaki, S.; Saito, K.; Mori, J.; Yamazaki, T.; Ise, T.; Arakida, H.; Hajima, T.; Iijima, Y.; Machiya, H.; Sueyoshi, T.; Yabuki, H.; Burke, E. J.; Hosaka, M.; Ichii, K.; Ikawa, H.; Ito, A.; Kotani, A.; Matsuura, Y.; Niwano, M.; Nitta, T.; O'ishi, R.; Ohta, T.; Park, H.; Sasai, T.; Sato, A.; Sato, H.; Sugimoto, A.; Suzuki, R.; Tanaka, K.; Yamaguchi, S.; Yoshimura, K.

    2015-09-01

    As part of the terrestrial branch of the Japan-funded Arctic Climate Change Research Project (GRENE-TEA), which aims to clarify the role and function of the terrestrial Arctic in the climate system and assess the influence of its changes on a global scale, this model intercomparison project (GTMIP) is designed to (1) enhance communication and understanding between the modelling and field scientists and (2) assess the uncertainty and variations stemming from variability in model implementation/design and in model outputs using climatic and historical conditions in the Arctic terrestrial regions. This paper provides an overview of all GTMIP activity, and the experiment protocol of Stage 1, which is site simulations driven by statistically fitted data created using the GRENE-TEA site observations for the last 3 decades. The target metrics for the model evaluation cover key processes in both physics and biogeochemistry, including energy budgets, snow, permafrost, phenology, and carbon budgets. Exemplary results for distributions of four metrics (annual mean latent heat flux, annual maximum snow depth, gross primary production, and net ecosystem production) and for seasonal transitions are provided to give an outlook of the planned analysis that will delineate the inter-dependence among the key processes and provide clues for improving model performance.

  12. Intercomparison and suitability of five Greenland topographic datasets for the purpose of hydrologic runoff modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitcher, L. H.; Smith, L. C.; Rennermalm, A. K.; Chu, V. W.; Gleason, C. J.; Yang, K.; Finnegan, D. C.; LeWinter, A. L.; Moller, D.; Moustafa, S.

    2012-12-01

    Rapid melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and subsequent sea level rise has underscored the need for accurate modeling of hydrologic processes. Researchers rely on the accuracy of topography datasets for this purpose, especially in remote areas like Greenland where in situ validation data are difficult to acquire. A number of new remotely-sensed Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) have recently become available for Greenland, but a comparative study of their respective quality and suitability for hydrologic modeling has not been undertaken. We examine five such remotely-sensed DEMs acquired for proglacial and supraglacial ablation zones of Greenland, namely (1) WorldView stereo DEMs, (2) NASA GLISTIN-A experimental radar, (3) NASA/IceBridge Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM), (4) Greenland Ice Mapping Project (GIMP) DEM, and (5) ASTER DEM. The quality, strengths and weaknesses of these DEMs for GrIS hydrologic modeling is assessed through intercomparison and in situ terrestrial lidar scanning data with precise RTK GPS control. Additionally, gridded bedrock (i.e. NASA/IceBridge Multichannel Coherent Radar Depth Sounder (MCoRDS); Bamber DEMs) and surface topography datasets are combined to create a hydraulic potentiometric surface for hydrologic modeling. Finally, the suitability of these combined topographic products for hydrologic modeling, characterization of GrIS meltwater runoff, and estimating sub- and/or englacial pathways is explored.

  13. Robustly weaker and longer ENSO in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project ensemble.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brierley, C. M.

    2014-12-01

    Following proxy observations of weakened temperature gradients along the Equator in the early Pliocene, there has been much speculation about Pliocene climate variability. A major advance for our knowledge about the later Pliocene has been the coordination of modelling efforts through the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Here the changes in interannual modes of sea surface temperature variability will be presented across PlioMIP. Previously model ensembles have shown little consensus in the response of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to imposed forcings - either for the past or future. The PlioMIP ensemble, however, shows surprising agreement with eight models simulating reduced variability and only one model indicating no change. The Pliocene's robustly weaker ENSO also saw a shift to lower frequencies. Model ensembles focussed at a wide variety of forcing scenarios have not yet shown this level of coherency. Nonetheless the PlioMIP ensemble does not show a robust response of either ENSO flavour or sea surface temperature variability in the Tropical Indian and North Pacific Oceans. Existing suggestions of ENSO properties linked to changes in zonal temperature gradient, seasonal cycle and the elevation of the Andes Mountains are investigated, yet prove insufficient to explain the coherent response.

  14. Numerical Model-Reality Intercomparison Tests Using Small-Sample Statistics.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Preisendorfer, Rudolph W.; Barnett, Tim P.

    1983-08-01

    When a numerical model's representation of a physical field is to be compared with a corresponding real observed field, it is usually the case that the numbers of realizations of model and observed field are relatively small, so that the natural procedure of producing histograms of pertinent statistics of the fields (e.g., means, variances) from the data sets themselves cannot be usually carried out. Also, it is not always safe to adopt assumptions of normality and independence of the data values. This prevents the confident use of classical statistical methods to make significance statements about the success or failure of the model's replication of the data. Here we suggest two techniques of determinable statistical power, in which small samples of spatially extensive physical fields can be made to blossom into workably large samples on which significance decisions can be based. We also introduce some new measures of location, spread and shape of multivariate data sets which may be used in conjunction with the two techniques. The result is a pair of new data intercomparison procedures which we illustrate using GCM simulations of the January sea-level pressure field and regional ocean model simulations of the new-shore velocity field of South America. We include with these procedures a method of determining the spatial and temporal locations of non-random errors between the model and data fields so that models can be improved accordingly.

  15. Evaluation of total cloudiness and its variability in the atmospheric model intercomparison project

    SciTech Connect

    Weare, B.C.; Mokhov, I.I.

    1995-09-01

    Total cloudiness of 29 models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project is compared with the ISCCP C2 as well as the Nimbus-7 and Meteor observational estimates. The root-mean-square differences between the annual means of the model calculations and the C2 observations vary from about twice to nearly four times the difference between the C2 and Meteor observations. The large differences are in some cases due to the fact that although a model qualitatively has patterns of spatial variations similar to those of the observations, the magnitude of those variations is much too small. In other cases the models have produced the approximate magnitude of the spatial variability of the observations but display sizable errors in the pattern of that variability. Deficiencies with respect to the model simulations of the mean seasonal cycle are also pronounced. For instance, the differences between the zonal averages of total cloudiness for contrasting seasons suggest that near 60{degrees} most models predict minima in cloudiness in summer, whereas observations strongly suggest the opposite. Smoothed seasonal cycle analyses suggest that a portion of these deficiencies in some models is the result of a simulated seasonal cycle that lead that of the observations by about two months. However, some models, which appear to have the proper phase of the seasonal cycle, still show large root-mean-squared differences and small correlations when compared with the smoothed seasonal cycle of the C2 observations. The C2 and Meteor observations show a modest signal in total cloudiness for the only important interannual variation during the July 1983 through June 1988 observation period-the 1986/87 ENSO event. A few models reproduce this event about as well as do the Meteor observations, whereas many models fail to show any evidence of it. Overall, models that better reproduce the ENSO results also tend to do well with seasonal variations. 32 refs., 12 figs., 1 tab.

  16. Combined field- and model-based intercomparison of hillslope hydrological response under different vegetation covers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ritter, M.; Bachmair, S.; Weiler, M.

    2012-12-01

    Hydrological dynamics can be characterized in terms of water sources, flowpaths, residence times and solute transport. Besides climate, geology, topography and soils, vegetation is known to be a principal, but in both space and time highly variable control of these dynamics. As a consequence, not only the hydrograph response, but also the residence and transit times are expected to differ among contrasting vegetation covers. This hypothesis seems to be plausible because unsaturated zone dynamics were identified to strongly control time-variant transit time distributions, but was only rarely tested. In order to identify the effect of different vegetation covers on hydrological dynamics, other controlling variables must be eliminated. This study was built on an existing large scale monitoring and intercomparison network of three adjacent hillslopes. They feature very similar topography, geology and soil types but different vegetation covers (grassland, coniferous forest, mixed forest). Transient shallow groundwater tables are measured in high spatial and temporal resolution (90 wells) and subsurface flow is continuously observed via three 10 m long trenches. Additionally, we injected an artificial tracer (sodium chloride) into several observation wells at each hillslope approximately 30 m above the trenches and recorded the breakthrough curves during the subsequent months using 18 CTD sensors. We utilized these field data of hydrometric and tracer responses to constrain the parameters of the physically-based hillslope model HillVi and gain further insight into water and solute flux dynamics, including preferential flow. The model framework was extended with a time accounting scheme which allowed the estimation of time-variant residence and transit times of different hillslope water balance components. The observations revealed a high variability of water table and trench flow dynamics and thus various tracer breakthrough characteristics among the three hillslopes

  17. Overview of Dust Model Inter-comparison (DMIP) in East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uno, I.

    2004-12-01

    Dust transport modeling plays an important role in understanding the recent increase of Asian Dust episodes and its impact to the regional climate system. Several dust models have been developed in several research institutes and government agencies independently since 1990s. Their numerical results either look very similar or different. Those disagreements are caused by difference in dust modules (concepts and basic mechanisms) and atmospheric models (meteorological and transport models). Therefore common understanding of performance and uncertainty of dust erosion and transport models in the Asian region becomes very important. To have a better understanding of dust model application, we proposed the dust model intercomparison under the international cooperation networks as a part of activity of ADEC (Aeolian Dust Experiment on Climate Impact) project research. Current participants are Kyusyu Univ. (Japan), Meteorological Research Institute (Japan), Hong-Kong City Univ. (China), Korean Meteorological Agency METRI (Korea), US Naval Research Laboratory (USA), Chinese Meteorological Agency (China), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (China), Insular Coastal Dynamics (Malta) and Meteorological Service of Canada (Canada). As a case study episode, we set two huge dust storms occurred in March and April 2002. Results from the dust transport model from all the participants are compiled on the same methods and examined the model characteristics against the ground and airborne measurement data. We will also examine the dust model results from the horizontal distribution at specified levels, vertical profiles, concentration at special check point and emission flux at source region, and show the important parameters for dust modeling. In this paper, we will introduce the general overview of this DMIP activity and several important conclusions from this activity.

  18. Proposed Design of the Third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Exercise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cornford, S. L.; Gudmundsson, G. H.; Pattyn, F.; Durand, G.; Martin, D. F.; Payne, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    The MISMIP and MISMIP3D marine ice sheet model intercomparison exercises have become popular benchmarks, and several modeling groups have used them to show how their models compare to both analytical results and other models. Both sets of experiments studied grounding line migration in response to changes to (in effect) properties of the grounded ice, either perturbations to the basal traction coefficient (C), or to ice softness (A). In particular, both exercises concluded that careful treatment of the grounding line was required in numerical models, either through fine resolution (typically better than 1 km), or higher order methods, or modifications to the discretization scheme. Given the success of these experiments, we propose a sequel. Like MISMIP3D, the experiments take place in a idealized, three-dimensional setting and compare full 3D (Stokes) and reduced, hydrostatic flow models. Unlike the earlier exercises, the primary focus will be the response of models to changes in ice shelf conditions, especially sub-shelf melting. The chosen configuration features an ice shelf that experiences substantial lateral shear and buttresses the upstream ice, and so is well suited to melting experiments. We also aim to design an experiment in which differences between the steady states of each model are minor compared to the response to melt-rate perturbations, a choice that reflects typical real-world applications where parameters are chosen so that the initial states of all models tend to match observations (and hence each other). We will present the MISMIP+ experiments, and show how results computed with the BISICLES ice sheet model are affected by mesh resolution, choice of flow model, and choice of melt-rate.

  19. The POLARCAT Model Intercomparison Project (POLMIP): overview and evaluation with observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emmons, L. K.; Arnold, S. R.; Monks, S. A.; Huijnen, V.; Tilmes, S.; Law, K. S.; Thomas, J. L.; Raut, J.-C.; Bouarar, I.; Turquety, S.; Long, Y.; Duncan, B.; Steenrod, S.; Strode, S.; Flemming, J.; Mao, J.; Langner, J.; Thompson, A. M.; Tarasick, D.; Apel, E. C.; Blake, D. R.; Cohen, R. C.; Dibb, J.; Diskin, G. S.; Fried, A.; Hall, S. R.; Huey, L. G.; Weinheimer, A. J.; Wisthaler, A.; Mikoviny, T.; Nowak, J.; Peischl, J.; Roberts, J. M.; Ryerson, T.; Warneke, C.; Helmig, D.

    2014-11-01

    A model intercomparison activity was inspired by the large suite of atmospheric chemistry observations made during the International Polar Year (2008) in the Arctic. Nine global and two regional chemical transport models have performed simulations for 2008 using a common emissions inventory to quantify the differences in model chemistry and transport schemes. This paper summarizes the models and compares their simulations of ozone and its precursors, and presents an evaluation of the simulations using a variety of surface, balloon, aircraft and satellite observations. Despite using the same emissions, large differences are seen among the models. Differences in a number of model parameters are identified as contributing to differences in the modelled chemical species, including cloud fields and photolysis rates. The largest differences among models, and between models and observations, are in NOy partitioning (PAN vs. HNO3) and in oxygenated volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as acetaldehyde and acetone. Comparisons to surface site measurements of ethane and propane indicate that the emissions of these species are significantly underestimated. While limited in spatial and temporal coverage, the aircraft measurements provide a simultaneous evaluation of many species. Satellite observations of NO2 from OMI have been used to evaluate the models over source regions, indicating anthropogenic emissions are underestimated in East Asia, but fire emissions are generally overestimated. The emission factors for wildfires in Canada are evaluated using the correlations of VOCs to CO in the model output in comparison to enhancement factors derived from aircraft observations, showing reasonable agreement for methanol and acetaldehyde, but underestimate of ethanol, propane and acetone, while overestimating ethane emission factors.

  20. The GRENE-TEA model intercomparison project (GTMIP) Stage 1 forcing data set

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sueyoshi, T.; Saito, K.; Miyazaki, S.; Mori, J.; Ise, T.; Arakida, H.; Suzuki, R.; Sato, A.; Iijima, Y.; Yabuki, H.; Ikawa, H.; Ohta, T.; Kotani, A.; Hajima, T.; Sato, H.; Yamazaki, T.; Sugimoto, A.

    2016-01-01

    Here, the authors describe the construction of a forcing data set for land surface models (including both physical and biogeochemical models; LSMs) with eight meteorological variables for the 35-year period from 1979 to 2013. The data set is intended for use in a model intercomparison study, called GTMIP, which is a part of the Japanese-funded Arctic Climate Change Research Project. In order to prepare a set of site-fitted forcing data for LSMs with realistic yet continuous entries (i.e. without missing data), four observational sites across the pan-Arctic region (Fairbanks, Tiksi, Yakutsk, and Kevo) were selected to construct a blended data set using both global reanalysis and observational data. Marked improvements were found in the diurnal cycles of surface air temperature and humidity, wind speed, and precipitation. The data sets and participation in GTMIP are open to the scientific community (doi:10.17592/001.2015093001).

  1. GCM (general circulation model)-data intercomparison: The good news and the bad

    SciTech Connect

    Grotch, S.L.

    1990-09-01

    General circulation models (GCMs) are being actively used to assess possible climate change due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Because such simulations provide detailed climatic predictions at a wide range of scales, they are of particular interest to those making regional assessments of climatic change. It is especially important that workers using the results of such simulations be aware of some of the limitations of these results. In this study some of the positive results from these model simulations will be shown and some of the deficiencies will also be highlighted. Following an introductory section describing the nature of GCM climate simulations the issue of the spatial scales of such simulations is examined. A comparison of the results of seven GCM simulations of the current climate and the predictions of these models for the changes due to a doubling of CO{sub 2} will be discussed. In these intercomparisons, the spatial scale over which the results are compared varies from global to zonal (longitudinally averaged at a given latitude) to individual slices through the data along specified latitudes or longitudes. Finally, the dangers and pitfalls of relying on simple averages will be highlighted. 19 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab.

  2. Intercomparison Of Bias-Correction Methods For Monthly Temperature And Precipitation Simulated By Multiple Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watanabe, S.; Kanae, S.; Seto, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Oki, T.

    2012-12-01

    Bias-correction methods applied to monthly temperature and precipitation data simulated by multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs) are evaluated in this study. Although various methods have been proposed recently, an intercomparison among them using multiple GCM simulations has seldom been reported. Here, five previous methods as well as a proposed new method are compared. Before the comparison, we classified previous methods. The methods proposed in previous studies can be classified into four types based on the following two criteria: 1) Whether the statistics (e.g. mean, standard deviation, or the coefficient of variation) of future simulation is used in bias-correction; and 2) whether the estimation of cumulative probability is included in bias-correction. The methods which require future statistics will depend on the data in the projection period, while those which do not use future statistics are not. The classification proposed can characterize each bias-correction method. These methods are applied to temperature and precipitation simulated from 12 GCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) archives. Parameters of each method are calibrated by using 1948-1972 observed data and validated for the 1974-1998 period. These methods are then applied to GCM future simulations (2073-2097), and the bias-corrected data are intercompared. For the historical simulation, negligible difference can be found between observed and bias-corrected data. However, the difference in the future simulation is large dependent on the characteristics of each method. The frequency (probability) that the 2073-2097 bias-corrected data exceed the 95th percentile of the 1948-1972 observed data is estimated in order to evaluate the differences among methods. The difference between proposed and one of the previous method is more than 10% in many areas. The differences of bias-corrected data among methods are discussed based on their respective characteristics. The results

  3. Intercomparison of six fast-response sensors for the eddy-covariance flux measurement of nitrous oxide over agricultural grassland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nemitz, Eiko; Famulari, Daniela; Ibrom, Andreas; Vermeulen, Alex; Hensen, Arjan; van den Bulk, Pim; Loubet, Benjamin; Laville, Patricia; Mammarella, Ivan; Haapanala, Sami; Lohila, Annalea; Laurila, Tuomas; Eva, Rabot; Laborde, Marie; Cowan, Nicholas; Anderson, Margaret; Helfter, Carole

    2015-04-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the third most important greenhouse gas and its terrestrial budget remains poorly constraint, with bottom up and top down estimates of country emissions often disagreeing by more than a factor of two. Whilst the measurements of the biosphere / atmosphere exchange of CO2 with micrometeorological methods is commonplace, emissions of CH4 and N2O are more commonly measured with enclosure techniques due to limitations in fast-response sensors with good signal-to-noise characteristics. Recent years have seen the development of a range of instruments based on optical spectroscopy. This started in the early 1990s with instruments based on lead salt lasers, which had temperamental long-term characteristics. More recent developments in quantum cascade lasers has lead to increasingly stable instruments, initially based on pulsed, later on continuous wave lasers. Within the context of the European FP7 Infrastructure Project InGOS ('Integrated non-CO2 Greenhouse gas Observing System'), we conducted an intercomparison of six fast response sensors for N2O: three more or less identical instruments based on off-axis Integrated Cavity Optical Spectrocopy (ICOS) (Los Gatos Research Inc.) and three instruments based on quantum cascade laser absorption spectrometry (Aerodyne Research Inc.): one older generation pulsed instrument (p-QCL) and two of the latest generation of compact continuous wave instruments (cw-QCL), operating at two different wavelengths. One of the ICOS instruments was operated with an inlet drier. In addition, the campaign was joined by a relaxed eddy-accumulation system linked to a FTIR spectrometer (Ecotech), a gradient system based on a home-built slower QCL (INRA Orleans) and a fast chamber system. Here we present the results of the study and a detailed examination of the various corrections and errors of the different instruments. Overall, with the exception of the older generation QCL, the average fluxes based on the different fast

  4. TWP-ICE Global Atmospheric Model Intercomparison: Convection Responsiveness and Resolution Impact

    SciTech Connect

    Lin, Yanluan; Donner, Leo J.; Petch, Jon C.; Bechtold, P.; Boyle, James; Klein, Stephen A.; Komori, T.; Wapler, K.; Willett, M.; Xie, X.; Zhao, M.; Xie, Shaocheng; McFarlane, Sally A.; Schumacher, Courtney

    2012-05-08

    Results are presented from an intercomparison of global atmospheric model (GAM) simulations of tropical convection during the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE). The distinct cloud properties, precipitation, radiation, and vertical diabatic heating profiles associated with three different monsoon regimes (wet, dry, and break) from available observations are used to evaluate 9 GAM forecasts initialized daily from realistic global analyses. All models well captured the evolution of large-scale circulation and the thermodynamic fields, but cloud properties differed substantially among models. For example, liquid water path and ice water path differed by up to two orders of magnitude. Compared with the relatively well simulated top-heavy heating structures during the wet and break period, most models had difficulty in depicting the bottom-heavy heating profiles associated with cumulus congestus. The best performing models during this period were the ones whose convection scheme was most responsive to the free tropospheric humidity. Compared with the large impact of cloud and convective parameterizations on model cloud and precipitation characteristics, resolution has relatively minor impact on simulated cloud properties. However, one feature that was influence by the resolution study in several models was the diurnal cycle of precipitation. Peaking at a different time from convective precipitation, large-scale precipitation generally increases in high resolution forecasts and modulates the total precipitation diurnal cycle. Overall, the study emphasizes the importance of more environmental responsive convective parameterizations to capture various types of convection and the substantial diversity among large-scale cloud and precipitation schemes in current GAMs. This experiment has also demonstrated itself to be a very useful testbed for those developing cloud and convection schemes in these models.

  5. TRAC-MIP: Tropical Rain bands with an Annual cycle and Continent - Model Intercomparison Project.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biasutti, Michela; Voigt, Aiko; Scheff, Jack; Zeppetello, Lucas Randall

    2016-04-01

    Understanding and modeling tropical rainfall has proven to be one of the most stubborn challenges in climate science. Tropical rainfall biases such as a double inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the East Pacific have now persisted more than two decades despite the general improvements of climate models, and projections for the ITCZ and the monsoon systems remain uncertain in magnitude and sign. Progress in these areas can be fostered by a set of idealized experiments that target the dynamics of tropical rain band, as long as these simple experiments are properly integrated within a full hierarchy of model simulations. To this aim, we have designed the "Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and Continent - Model Intercomparison Project." TRAC-MIP involves five experiments using idealized aquaplanet and land setups to explore the dynamics of tropical rainfall. By using interactive sea-surface temperatures and seasonally-varying insolation TRAC-MIP fills the gap between idealized aquaplanet simulations with prescribed SSTs and the fully-coupled realistic model simulations of CMIP5. TRAC-MIP includes the participation of 13 state-of-the art comprehensive climate models, and it also includes a simplified model that neglects cloud and water-vapor radiative feedbacks, thus allowing a more direct connection between the results from the TRAC-MIP comprehensive models and the theoretical studies of tropical rain belt dynamics. We will present preliminary results from the ensemble, aiming to examine the mechanisms controlling tropical precipitation in the context of forced variability. First and foremost, we are interested in the largest forced variation: the annual cycle. Second, we are interested in the response to key forcings of the future (greenhouse gases) and of the Holocene (insolation). We will draw out the similarities and the distinctions between oceanic and continental rain bands, study the ways in which the two interact with each other, and investigate

  6. Introduction of the 2nd Phase of the Integrated Hydrologic Model Intercomparison Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kollet, Stefan; Maxwell, Reed; Dages, Cecile; Mouche, Emmanuel; Mugler, Claude; Paniconi, Claudio; Park, Young-Jin; Putti, Mario; Shen, Chaopeng; Stisen, Simon; Sudicky, Edward; Sulis, Mauro; Ji, Xinye

    2015-04-01

    The 2nd Phase of the Integrated Hydrologic Model Intercomparison Project commenced in June 2013 with a workshop at Bonn University funded by the German Science Foundation and US National Science Foundation. Three test cases were defined and compared that are available online at www.hpsc-terrsys.de including a tilted v-catchment case; a case called superslab based on multiple slab-heterogeneities in the hydraulic conductivity along a hillslope; and the Borden site case, based on a published field experiment. The goal of this phase is to further interrogate the coupling of surface-subsurface flow implemented in various integrated hydrologic models; and to understand and quantify the impact of differences in the conceptual and technical implementations on the simulation results, which may constitute an additional source of uncertainty. The focus has been broadened considerably including e.g. saturated and unsaturated subsurface storages, saturated surface area, ponded surface storage in addition to discharge, and pressure/saturation profiles and cross-sections. Here, first results are presented and discussed demonstrating the conceptual and technical challenges in implementing essentially the same governing equations describing highly non-linear moisture redistribution processes and surface-groundwater interactions.

  7. Spatio-temporal characteristics of Agulhas leakage: a model inter-comparison study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holton, L.; Deshayes, J.; Backeberg, B. C.; Loveday, B. R.; Hermes, J. C.; Reason, C. J. C.

    2016-05-01

    Investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage, the volume transport of water from the Indian Ocean to the South Atlantic Ocean, is highly relevant due to its potential contribution to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as well as the global circulation of heat and salt and hence global climate. Quantifying Agulhas leakage is challenging due to the non-linear nature of this process; current observations are insufficient to estimate its variability and ocean models all have biases in this region, even at high resolution . An Eulerian threshold integration method is developed to examine the mechanisms of Agulhas leakage variability in six ocean model simulations of varying resolution. This intercomparison, based on the circulation and thermohaline structure at the Good Hope line, a transect to the south west of the southern tip of Africa , is used to identify features that are robust regardless of the model used and takes into account the thermohaline biases of each model. When determined by a passive tracer method, 60 % of the magnitude of Agulhas leakage is captured and more than 80 % of its temporal fluctuations, suggesting that the method is appropriate for investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage. In all simulations but one, the major driver of variability is associated with mesoscale features passing through the section. High resolution ({<} 1/10°) hindcast models agree on the temporal (2-4 cycles per year) and spatial (300-500 km) scales of these features corresponding to observed Agulhas Rings. Coarser resolution models ({<} 1/4^°/) reproduce similar time scale of variability of Agulhas leakage in spite of their difficulties in representing the Agulhas rings properties. A coarser resolution climate model (2° ) does not resolve the spatio-temporal mechanism of variability of Agulhas leakage. Hence it is expected to underestimate the contribution of Agulhas Current System to climate variability.

  8. Spatio-temporal characteristics of Agulhas leakage: a model inter-comparison study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holton, L.; Deshayes, J.; Backeberg, B. C.; Loveday, B. R.; Hermes, J. C.; Reason, C. J. C.

    2016-05-01

    Investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage, the volume transport of water from the Indian Ocean to the South Atlantic Ocean, is highly relevant due to its potential contribution to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as well as the global circulation of heat and salt and hence global climate. Quantifying Agulhas leakage is challenging due to the non-linear nature of this process; current observations are insufficient to estimate its variability and ocean models all have biases in this region, even at high resolution . An Eulerian threshold integration method is developed to examine the mechanisms of Agulhas leakage variability in six ocean model simulations of varying resolution. This intercomparison, based on the circulation and thermohaline structure at the Good Hope line, a transect to the south west of the southern tip of Africa , is used to identify features that are robust regardless of the model used and takes into account the thermohaline biases of each model. When determined by a passive tracer method, 60 % of the magnitude of Agulhas leakage is captured and more than 80 % of its temporal fluctuations, suggesting that the method is appropriate for investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage. In all simulations but one, the major driver of variability is associated with mesoscale features passing through the section. High resolution ({<} 1/10°) hindcast models agree on the temporal (2-4 cycles per year) and spatial (300-500 km) scales of these features corresponding to observed Agulhas Rings. Coarser resolution models ({<} 1/4°) reproduce similar time scale of variability of Agulhas leakage in spite of their difficulties in representing the Agulhas rings properties. A coarser resolution climate model (2°) does not resolve the spatio-temporal mechanism of variability of Agulhas leakage. Hence it is expected to underestimate the contribution of Agulhas Current System to climate variability.

  9. The North American Carbon Program Multi-scale synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project Part 1: Overview and experimental design

    SciTech Connect

    Huntzinger, D.N.; Schwalm, C.; Michalak, A.M; Schaefer, K.; King, A.W.; Wei, Y.; Jacobson, A.; Liu, S.; Cook, R.; Post, W.M.; Berthier, G.; Hayes, D.; Huang, M.; Ito, A.; Lei, H.; Lu, C.; Mao, J.; Peng, C.H.; Peng, S.; Poulter, B.; Riccuito, D.; Shi, X.; Tian, H.; Wang, W.; Zeng, N.; Zhao, F.; Zhu, Q.

    2013-01-01

    Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) have become an integral tool for extrapolating local observations and understanding of land-atmosphere carbon exchange to larger regions. The North American Carbon Program (NACP) Multi-scale synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP) is a formal model intercomparison and evaluation effort focused on improving the diagnosis and attribution of carbon exchange at regional and global scales. MsTMIP builds upon current and past synthesis activities, and has a unique framework designed to isolate, interpret, and inform understanding of how model structural differences impact estimates of carbon uptake and release. Here we provide an overview of the MsTMIP effort and describe how the MsTMIP experimental design enables the assessment and quantification of TBM structural uncertainty. Model structure refers to the types of processes considered (e.g. nutrient cycling, disturbance, lateral transport of carbon), and how these processes are represented (e.g. photosynthetic formulation, temperature sensitivity, respiration) in the models. By prescribing a common experimental protocol with standard spin-up procedures and driver data sets, we isolate any biases and variability in TBM estimates of regional and global carbon budgets resulting from differences in the models themselves (i.e. model structure) and model-specific parameter values. An initial intercomparison of model structural differences is represented using hierarchical cluster diagrams (a.k.a. dendrograms), which highlight similarities and differences in how models account for carbon cycle, vegetation, energy, and nitrogen cycle dynamics. We show that, despite the standardized protocol used to derive initial conditions, models show a high degree of variation for GPP, total living biomass, and total soil carbon, underscoring the influence of differences in model structure and parameterization on model estimates.

  10. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Breuer, L.; Huisman, J. A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B. F. W.; Frede, H.-G.; Gräff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A. J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Lindström, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N. R.

    2009-02-01

    This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

  11. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Breuer, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

  12. A new methodology to assess the performance and uncertainty of source apportionment models in intercomparison exercises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belis, C. A.; Pernigotti, D.; Karagulian, F.; Pirovano, G.; Larsen, B. R.; Gerboles, M.; Hopke, P. K.

    2015-10-01

    A new methodology to assess source apportionment model performance in intercomparison exercises, encompassing the preparation of real-world and synthetic datasets and the evaluation of the source apportionment results reported by participants, is described. The evaluation consists of three types of tests: complementary tests, preliminary tests, and performance tests. The complementary tests provide summary information about the source apportionment results as a whole. The preliminary tests check whether source/factors belong to a given source category. Three types of indicators: Pearson correlation (Pearson), standardized identity distance (SID), and weighted difference (WD) are used to test factor/source chemical profiles, while factor/source time series and contribution-to-species values are tested only using the Pearson. The performance tests, based on international standards for proficiency testing, are targeted at evaluating whether the reported biases in the quantification of the factor/source contribution estimates (SCEs) and uncertainties are consistent with previously established quality standards in a fitness-for-purpose approach. Moreover, the consistency of the SCE time series is evaluated using a variant of the RMSE normalised by the reference standard uncertainty. The described methodology facilitates a thorough evaluation of the source apportionment output. The new indicator to compare source or factor profiles presented in this study (SID) is more robust and provides additional information compared to the existing ones.

  13. The impact of geoengineering on vegetation in experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irvine, Peter; Glienke, Susanne; Lawrence, Mark

    2015-04-01

    Solar Radiation Management (SRM) has been proposed as a means to partly counteract global warming. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulated the climate consequences of a number of SRM techniques, but the effects on vegetation have not yet been thoroughly studied. Here, the vegetation response to the idealized GeoMIP G1 experiment is analyzed, in which a reduction of the solar constant counterbalances the radiative effects of quadrupled atmospheric CO2 concentrations; the results from eight fully coupled earth system models (ESMs) are included. For most models and regions, changes in net primary productivity (NPP) are dominated by the increase in CO2, via the CO2 fertilization effect. As SRM will lower temperatures, in high latitudes this will reverse gains in NPP from the lifting of temperature limitations. In low latitudes this cooling relative to the 4xCO2 simulation decreases plant respiration whilst having little effect on gross primary productivity, increasing NPP. Despite reductions in precipitation in most regions in response to SRM, runoff and NPP increase in many regions including those previously highlighted as potentially being at risk of drought under SRM. This is due to simultaneous reductions in evaporation and increases in water use efficiency by plants due to higher CO2 concentrations. The relative differences between models in the vegetation response are substantially larger than the differences in their climate responses. The largest differences between models are for those with and without a nitrogen-cycle, with a much smaller CO2 fertilization effect for the former. These results suggest that until key vegetation processes are integrated into ESM predictions, the vegetation response to SRM will remain highly uncertain.

  14. Intercomparison of statistical and dynamical downscaling models under the EURO- and MED-CORDEX initiative framework: present climate evaluations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaittinada Ayar, Pradeebane; Vrac, Mathieu; Bastin, Sophie; Carreau, Julie; Déqué, Michel; Gallardo, Clemente

    2016-02-01

    Given the coarse spatial resolution of General Circulation Models, finer scale projections of variables affected by local-scale processes such as precipitation are often needed to drive impacts models, for example in hydrology or ecology among other fields. This need for high-resolution data leads to apply projection techniques called downscaling. Downscaling can be performed according to two approaches: dynamical and statistical models. The latter approach is constituted by various statistical families conceptually different. If several studies have made some intercomparisons of existing downscaling models, none of them included all those families and approaches in a manner that all the models are equally considered. To this end, the present study conducts an intercomparison exercise under the EURO- and MED-CORDEX initiative hindcast framework. Six Statistical Downscaling Models (SDMs) and five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are compared in terms of precipitation outputs. The downscaled simulations are driven by the ERAinterim reanalyses over the 1989-2008 period over a common area at 0.44° of resolution. The 11 models are evaluated according to four aspects of the precipitation: occurrence, intensity, as well as spatial and temporal properties. For each aspect, one or several indicators are computed to discriminate the models. The results indicate that marginal properties of rain occurrence and intensity are better modelled by stochastic and resampling-based SDMs, while spatial and temporal variability are better modelled by RCMs and resampling-based SDM. These general conclusions have to be considered with caution because they rely on the chosen indicators and could change when considering other specific criteria. The indicators suit specific purpose and therefore the model evaluation results depend on the end-users point of view and how they intend to use with model outputs. Nevertheless, building on previous intercomparison exercises, this study provides a

  15. Evaluation of Tropospheric Water Vapor Simulations from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gaffen, Dian J.; Rosen, Richard D.; Salstein, David A.; Boyle, James S.

    1997-01-01

    Simulations of humidity from 28 general circulation models for the period 1979-88 from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project are compared with observations from radiosondes over North America and the globe and with satellite microwave observations over the Pacific basin. The simulations of decadal mean values of precipitable water (W) integrated over each of these regions tend to be less moist than the real atmosphere in all three cases; the median model values are approximately 5% less than the observed values. The spread among the simulations is larger over regions of high terrain, which suggests that differences in methods of resolving topographic features are important. The mean elevation of the North American continent is substantially higher in the models than is observed, which may contribute to the overall dry bias of the models over that area. The authors do not find a clear association between the mean topography of a model and its mean W simulation, however, which suggests that the bias over land is not purely a matter of orography. The seasonal cycle of W is reasonably well simulated by the models, although over North America they have a tendency to become moister more quickly in the spring than is observed. The interannual component of the variability of W is not well captured by the models over North America. Globally, the simulated W values show a signal correlated with the Southern Oscillation index but the observations do not. This discrepancy may be related to deficiencies in the radiosonde network, which does not sample the tropical ocean regions well. Overall, the interannual variability of W, as well as its climatology and mean seasonal cycle, are better described by the median of the 28 simulations than by individual members of the ensemble. Tests to learn whether simulated precipitable water, evaporation, and precipitation values may be related to aspects of model formulation yield few clear signals, although the authors find, for

  16. Results of the IAVCEI inter-comparison study of eruptive plume models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Costa, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Volcanic plume heights are key observable data for estimating crucial parameters such as mass flow rate, and they are commonly used as input for dispersal models of tephra particles. Therefore, quantitative relationships between plume heights and eruption conditions are required. During the last decades, many 1D, 2D, and 3D models of volcanic plume have been proposed. In order to investigate the dependence of plume dynamics on the models and their assumptions, we carried out an inter-comparison study of the recent plume models (nine 1D models based on the buoyant plume theory and four 3D models). The study was designed as a test in which a set of common input parameters was given for two reference eruptions, representing a strong and a weak eruption column under different meteorological conditions. Comparing the results of the different models has allowed us to evaluate their capabilities and target areas for improvement. Despite their different formulations, the 1D and 3D models provide reasonably consistent predictions of some of the key global descriptors of the volcanic plumes. Variability in modeled plume height, estimated as standard deviation, is within ~20% for the weak plume and ~10% for the strong plume. Predictions of neutral buoyancy level are also in reasonably good agreement among the different models, with a standard deviation ranging from 9 to 19% (the latter for the weak plume in a windy atmosphere). Overall, these discrepancies are in the range of observational uncertainty of column height. However, there are important differences amongst models in terms of local properties along the plume axis, particularly for the strong plume. The analysis suggests that the simplified treatment of entrainment in 1D models is adequate to resolve the general behavior of the weak plume. However, it appears clearly inadequate to capture complex features of the strong plume, such as large vortices, partial column collapse, or gravitational fountaining that strongly

  17. The North American Carbon Program Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project – Part 2: Environmental driver data

    SciTech Connect

    Wei, Yaxing; Liu, Shishi; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Michalak, Anna M.; Viovy, Nicolas; Post, Wilfred M.; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Schaeffer, Kevin; Jacobson, Andrew R.; Lu, Chaoqun; Tian, Hanqin; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Cook, Robert B.; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying

    2014-12-05

    Ecosystems are important and dynamic components of the global carbon cycle, and terrestrial biospheric models (TBMs) are crucial tools in further understanding of how terrestrial carbon is stored and exchanged with the atmosphere across a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Improving TBM skills, and quantifying and reducing their estimation uncertainties, pose significant challenges. The Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP) is a formal multi-scale and multi-model intercomparison effort set up to tackle these challenges. The MsTMIP protocol prescribes standardized environmental driver data that are shared among model teams to facilitate model model and model observation comparisons. In this article, we describe the global and North American environmental driver data sets prepared for the MsTMIP activity to both support their use in MsTMIP and make these data, along with the processes used in selecting/processing these data, accessible to a broader audience. Based on project needs and lessons learned from past model intercomparison activities, we compiled climate, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, nitrogen deposition, land use and land cover change (LULCC), C3 / C4 grasses fractions, major crops, phenology and soil data into a standard format for global (0.5⁰ x 0.5⁰ resolution) and regional (North American: 0.25⁰ x 0.25⁰ resolution) simulations. In order to meet the needs of MsTMIP, improvements were made to several of the original environmental data sets, by improving the quality, and/or changing their spatial and temporal coverage, and resolution. The resulting standardized model driver data sets are being used by over 20 different models participating in MsTMIP. Lastly, the data are archived at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center (ORNL DAAC, http://daac.ornl.gov) to provide long-term data management and distribution.

  18. The North American Carbon Program Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project – Part 2: Environmental driver data

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Wei, Yaxing; Liu, Shishi; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Michalak, Anna M.; Viovy, Nicolas; Post, Wilfred M.; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Schaeffer, Kevin; Jacobson, Andrew R.; Lu, Chaoqun; et al

    2014-12-05

    Ecosystems are important and dynamic components of the global carbon cycle, and terrestrial biospheric models (TBMs) are crucial tools in further understanding of how terrestrial carbon is stored and exchanged with the atmosphere across a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Improving TBM skills, and quantifying and reducing their estimation uncertainties, pose significant challenges. The Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP) is a formal multi-scale and multi-model intercomparison effort set up to tackle these challenges. The MsTMIP protocol prescribes standardized environmental driver data that are shared among model teams to facilitate model model and model observation comparisons. Inmore » this article, we describe the global and North American environmental driver data sets prepared for the MsTMIP activity to both support their use in MsTMIP and make these data, along with the processes used in selecting/processing these data, accessible to a broader audience. Based on project needs and lessons learned from past model intercomparison activities, we compiled climate, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, nitrogen deposition, land use and land cover change (LULCC), C3 / C4 grasses fractions, major crops, phenology and soil data into a standard format for global (0.5⁰ x 0.5⁰ resolution) and regional (North American: 0.25⁰ x 0.25⁰ resolution) simulations. In order to meet the needs of MsTMIP, improvements were made to several of the original environmental data sets, by improving the quality, and/or changing their spatial and temporal coverage, and resolution. The resulting standardized model driver data sets are being used by over 20 different models participating in MsTMIP. Lastly, the data are archived at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center (ORNL DAAC, http://daac.ornl.gov) to provide long-term data management and distribution.« less

  19. The North American Carbon Program Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project - Part 2: Environmental driver data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Y.; Liu, S.; Huntzinger, D. N.; Michalak, A. M.; Viovy, N.; Post, W. M.; Schwalm, C. R.; Schaefer, K.; Jacobson, A. R.; Lu, C.; Tian, H.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Cook, R. B.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.

    2014-12-01

    Ecosystems are important and dynamic components of the global carbon cycle, and terrestrial biospheric models (TBMs) are crucial tools in further understanding of how terrestrial carbon is stored and exchanged with the atmosphere across a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Improving TBM skills, and quantifying and reducing their estimation uncertainties, pose significant challenges. The Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP) is a formal multi-scale and multi-model intercomparison effort set up to tackle these challenges. The MsTMIP protocol prescribes standardized environmental driver data that are shared among model teams to facilitate model-model and model-observation comparisons. This paper describes the global and North American environmental driver data sets prepared for the MsTMIP activity to both support their use in MsTMIP and make these data, along with the processes used in selecting/processing these data, accessible to a broader audience. Based on project needs and lessons learned from past model intercomparison activities, we compiled climate, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, nitrogen deposition, land use and land cover change (LULCC), C3 / C4 grasses fractions, major crops, phenology and soil data into a standard format for global (0.5° × 0.5° resolution) and regional (North American: 0.25° × 0.25° resolution) simulations. In order to meet the needs of MsTMIP, improvements were made to several of the original environmental data sets, by improving the quality, and/or changing their spatial and temporal coverage, and resolution. The resulting standardized model driver data sets are being used by over 20 different models participating in MsTMIP. The data are archived at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center (ORNL DAAC, http://daac.ornl.gov) to provide long-term data management and distribution.

  20. Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison

    SciTech Connect

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Kyle, G. Page; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Havlik, Petr; van Meijl, Hans; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Popp, Alexander; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk; Wise, Marshall A.

    2014-01-01

    Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, e.g. from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an RCP2.6-type scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in an RCP8.5-type scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise.

  1. WETCHIMP-WSL: Intercomparison of wetland methane emissions models over West Siberia

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Bohn, T. J.; Melton, J. R.; Ito, A.; Kleinen, T.; Spahni, R.; Stocker, B. D.; Zhang, B.; Zhu, X.; Schroeder, R.; Glagolev, M. V.; et al

    2015-06-03

    Wetlands are the world's largest natural source of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. The strong sensitivity of methane emissions to environmental factors such as soil temperature and moisture has led to concerns about potential positive feedbacks to climate change. This risk is particularly relevant at high latitudes, which have experienced pronounced warming and where thawing permafrost could potentially liberate large amounts of labile carbon over the next 100 years. However, global models disagree as to the magnitude and spatial distribution of emissions, due to uncertainties in wetland area and emissions per unit area and a scarcity of in situ observations.more » Recent intensive field campaigns across the West Siberian Lowland (WSL) make this an ideal region over which to assess the performance of large-scale process-based wetland models in a high-latitude environment. Here we present the results of a follow-up to the Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP), focused on the West Siberian Lowland (WETCHIMP-WSL). We assessed 21 models and 5 inversions over this domain in terms of total CH4 emissions, simulated wetland areas, and CH4 fluxes per unit wetland area and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux data set, several wetland maps, and two satellite surface water products. We found that (a) despite the large scatter of individual estimates, 12-year mean estimates of annual total emissions over the WSL from forward models (5.34 ± 0.54 Tg CH4 yr⁻¹), inversions (6.06 ± 1.22 Tg CH4 yr⁻¹), and in situ observations (3.91 ± 1.29 Tg CH4 yr⁻¹) largely agreed; (b) forward models using surface water products alone to estimate wetland areas suffered from severe biases in CH4 emissions; (c) the interannual time series of models that lacked either soil thermal physics appropriate to the high latitudes or realistic emissions from unsaturated peatlands tended to be dominated by a single environmental driver

  2. WETCHIMP-WSL: Intercomparison of wetland methane emissions models over West Siberia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melton, Joe; Bohn, Theodore

    2015-04-01

    Wetlands are the world's largest natural source of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. The strong sensitivity of methane emissions to environmental factors such as soil temperature and moisture has led to concerns about potential positive feedbacks to climate change. This risk is particularly relevant at high latitudes, which have experienced pronounced warming and where thawing permafrost could potentially liberate large amounts of labile carbon over the next 100 years. However, global models disagree as to the magnitude and spatial distribution of emissions, due to uncertainties in wetland area and emissions per unit area and a scarcity of in situ observations. Recent intensive field campaigns across the West Siberian Lowland (WSL) make this an ideal region over which to assess the performance of large-scale process-based wetland models in a high-latitude environment. Here we present the results of a follow-up to the Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP), focused on the West Siberian Lowland (WETCHIMP-WSL). We assessed 21 models and 5 inversions over this domain in terms of total CH4 emissions, simulated wetland areas, and CH4 fluxes per unit wetland area and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux dataset, several wetland maps, and two satellite inundation products. We found that: a) despite the large scatter of individual estimates, 12-year mean estimates of annual total emissions over the WSL from forward models (5.34 ±0.54 Tg CH4 y-1), inversions (6.06 ±1.22 Tg CH4 y-1), and in situ observations (3.91 ±1.29 Tg CH4 y-1) largely agreed; b) forward models using inundation products alone to estimate wetland areas suffered from severe biases in CH4 emissions; c) the interannual timeseries of models that lacked either soil thermal physics appropriate to the high latitudes or realistic emissions from unsaturated peatlands tended to be dominated by a single environmental driver (inundation or air temperature), unlike

  3. WETCHIMP-WSL: intercomparison of wetland methane emissions models over West Siberia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohn, T. J.; Melton, J. R.; Ito, A.; Kleinen, T.; Spahni, R.; Stocker, B. D.; Zhang, B.; Zhu, X.; Schroeder, R.; Glagolev, M. V.; Maksyutov, S.; Brovkin, V.; Chen, G.; Denisov, S. N.; Eliseev, A. V.; Gallego-Sala, A.; McDonald, K. C.; Rawlins, M. A.; Riley, W. J.; Subin, Z. M.; Tian, H.; Zhuang, Q.; Kaplan, J. O.

    2015-01-01

    Wetlands are the world's largest natural source of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. The strong sensitivity of methane emissions to environmental factors such as soil temperature and moisture has led to concerns about potential positive feedbacks to climate change. This risk is particularly relevant at high latitudes, which have experienced pronounced warming and where thawing permafrost could potentially liberate large amounts of labile carbon over the next 100 years. However, global models disagree as to the magnitude and spatial distribution of emissions, due to uncertainties in wetland area and emissions per unit area and a scarcity of in situ observations. Recent intensive field campaigns across the West Siberian Lowland (WSL) make this an ideal region over which to assess the performance of large-scale process-based wetland models in a high-latitude environment. Here we present the results of a follow-up to the Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP), focused on the West Siberian Lowland (WETCHIMP-WSL). We assessed 21 models and 5 inversions over this domain in terms of total CH4 emissions, simulated wetland areas, and CH4 fluxes per unit wetland area and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux dataset, several wetland maps, and two satellite inundation products. We found that: (a) despite the large scatter of individual estimates, 12 year mean estimates of annual total emissions over the WSL from forward models (5.34 ± 0.54 Tg CH4 y-1), inversions (6.06 ± 1.22 Tg CH4 y-1), and in situ observations (3.91 ± 1.29 Tg CH4 y-1) largely agreed, (b) forward models using inundation products alone to estimate wetland areas suffered from severe biases in CH4 emissions, (c) the interannual timeseries of models that lacked either soil thermal physics appropriate to the high latitudes or realistic emissions from unsaturated peatlands tended to be dominated by a single environmental driver (inundation or air temperature

  4. WETCHIMP-WSL: intercomparison of wetland methane emissions models over West Siberia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohn, T. J.; Melton, J. R.; Ito, A.; Kleinen, T.; Spahni, R.; Stocker, B. D.; Zhang, B.; Zhu, X.; Schroeder, R.; Glagolev, M. V.; Maksyutov, S.; Brovkin, V.; Chen, G.; Denisov, S. N.; Eliseev, A. V.; Gallego-Sala, A.; McDonald, K. C.; Rawlins, M. A.; Riley, W. J.; Subin, Z. M.; Tian, H.; Zhuang, Q.; Kaplan, J. O.

    2015-06-01

    Wetlands are the world's largest natural source of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. The strong sensitivity of methane emissions to environmental factors such as soil temperature and moisture has led to concerns about potential positive feedbacks to climate change. This risk is particularly relevant at high latitudes, which have experienced pronounced warming and where thawing permafrost could potentially liberate large amounts of labile carbon over the next 100 years. However, global models disagree as to the magnitude and spatial distribution of emissions, due to uncertainties in wetland area and emissions per unit area and a scarcity of in situ observations. Recent intensive field campaigns across the West Siberian Lowland (WSL) make this an ideal region over which to assess the performance of large-scale process-based wetland models in a high-latitude environment. Here we present the results of a follow-up to the Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP), focused on the West Siberian Lowland (WETCHIMP-WSL). We assessed 21 models and 5 inversions over this domain in terms of total CH4 emissions, simulated wetland areas, and CH4 fluxes per unit wetland area and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux data set, several wetland maps, and two satellite surface water products. We found that (a) despite the large scatter of individual estimates, 12-year mean estimates of annual total emissions over the WSL from forward models (5.34 ± 0.54 Tg CH4 yr-1), inversions (6.06 ± 1.22 Tg CH4 yr-1), and in situ observations (3.91 ± 1.29 Tg CH4 yr-1) largely agreed; (b) forward models using surface water products alone to estimate wetland areas suffered from severe biases in CH4 emissions; (c) the interannual time series of models that lacked either soil thermal physics appropriate to the high latitudes or realistic emissions from unsaturated peatlands tended to be dominated by a single environmental driver (inundation or air

  5. WETCHIMP-WSL: Intercomparison of wetland methane emissions models over West Siberia

    SciTech Connect

    Bohn, T. J.; Melton, J. R.; Ito, A.; Kleinen, T.; Spahni, R.; Stocker, B. D.; Zhang, B.; Zhu, X.; Schroeder, R.; Glagolev, M. V.; Maksyutov, S.; Brovkin, V.; Chen, G.; Denisov, S. N.; Eliseev, A. V.; Gallego-Sala, A.; McDonald, K. C.; Rawlins, M. A.; Riley, W. J.; Subin, Z. M.; Tian, H.; Zhuang, Q.; Kaplan, J. O.

    2015-06-03

    Wetlands are the world's largest natural source of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. The strong sensitivity of methane emissions to environmental factors such as soil temperature and moisture has led to concerns about potential positive feedbacks to climate change. This risk is particularly relevant at high latitudes, which have experienced pronounced warming and where thawing permafrost could potentially liberate large amounts of labile carbon over the next 100 years. However, global models disagree as to the magnitude and spatial distribution of emissions, due to uncertainties in wetland area and emissions per unit area and a scarcity of in situ observations. Recent intensive field campaigns across the West Siberian Lowland (WSL) make this an ideal region over which to assess the performance of large-scale process-based wetland models in a high-latitude environment. Here we present the results of a follow-up to the Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP), focused on the West Siberian Lowland (WETCHIMP-WSL). We assessed 21 models and 5 inversions over this domain in terms of total CH4 emissions, simulated wetland areas, and CH4 fluxes per unit wetland area and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux data set, several wetland maps, and two satellite surface water products. We found that (a) despite the large scatter of individual estimates, 12-year mean estimates of annual total emissions over the WSL from forward models (5.34 ± 0.54 Tg CH4 yr⁻¹), inversions (6.06 ± 1.22 Tg CH4 yr⁻¹), and in situ observations (3.91 ± 1.29 Tg CH4 yr⁻¹) largely agreed; (b) forward models using surface water products alone to estimate wetland areas suffered from severe biases in CH4 emissions; (c) the interannual time series of models that lacked either soil thermal physics appropriate to the high latitudes or realistic emissions from

  6. The distributed model intercomparison project - Phase 2: Motivation and design of the Oklahoma experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Michael B.; Koren, Victor; Reed, Seann; Zhang, Ziya; Zhang, Yu; Moreda, Fekadu; Cui, Zhengtao; Mizukami, Naoki; Anderson, Eric A.; Cosgrove, Brian A.

    2012-02-01

    SummaryThe Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) conducted the second phase of the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP 2). After DMIP 1, the NWS recognized the need for additional science experiments to guide its research-to-operations path towards advanced hydrologic models for river and water resources forecasting. This was accentuated by the need to develop a broader spectrum of water resources forecasting products (such as soil moisture) in addition to the more traditional river, flash flood, and water supply forecasts. As it did for DMIP 1, the NWS sought the input and contributions from the hydrologic research community. DMIP 1 showed that using operational precipitation data, some distributed models could indeed perform as well as lumped models in several basins and better than lumped models for one basin. However, in general, the improvements were more limited than anticipated by the scientific community. Models combining so-called conceptual rainfall-runoff mechanisms with physically-based routing schemes achieved the best overall performance. Clear gains were achieved through calibration of model parameters, with the average performance of calibrated models being better than uncalibrated models. DMIP 1 experiments were hampered by temporally-inconsistent precipitation data and few runoff events in the verification period for some basins. Greater uncertainty in modeling small basins was noted, pointing to the need for additional tests of nested basins of various sizes. DMIP 2 experiments in the Oklahoma (OK) region were more comprehensive than in DMIP 1, and were designed to improve our understanding beyond what was learned in DMIP 1. Many more stream gauges were located, allowing for more rigorous testing of simulations at interior points. These included two new gauged interior basins that had drainage areas smaller than the smallest in DMIP 1. Soil

  7. Regional climate effects of irrigation and urbanization in thewestern united states: a model intercomparison

    SciTech Connect

    Snyder, M.A.; Kueppers, L.M.; Sloan, L.C.; Cavan, D.C.; Jin, J.; Kanamaru, H.; Miller, N.L.; Tyree, M.; Du, H.; Weare, B.

    2006-05-01

    In the western United States, more than 30,500 square miles has been converted to irrigated agriculture and urban areas. This study compares the climate responses of four regional climate models (RCMs) to these past land-use changes. The RCMs used two contrasting land cover distributions: potential natural vegetation, and modern land cover that includes agriculture and urban areas. Three of the RCMs represented irrigation by supplementing soil moisture, producing large decreases in August mean (-2.5 F to -5.6 F) and maximum (-5.2 F to -10.1 F) 2-meter temperatures where natural vegetation was converted to irrigated agriculture. Conversion to irrigated agriculture also resulted in large increases in relative humidity (9 percent 36 percent absolute change). Only one of the RCMs produced increases in summer minimum temperature. Converting natural vegetation to urban land cover produced modest but discernable climate effects in all models, with the magnitude of the effects dependent upon the preexisting vegetation type. Overall, the RCM results indicate that land use change impacts are most pronounced during the summer months, when surface heating is strongest and differences in surface moisture between irrigated land and natural vegetation are largest. The irrigation effect on summer maximum temperatures is comparable in magnitude (but opposite in sign) to predicted future temperature change due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.

  8. A systematic intercomparison of regional flood frequency analysis models in a simulation framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ganora, Daniele; Laio, Francesco; Claps, Pierluigi

    2015-04-01

    Regional frequency analysis (RFA) is a well-established methodology to provide an estimate of the flood frequency curve (or other discharge-related variables), based on the fundamental concept of substituting temporal information at a site (no data or short time series) by exploiting observations at other sites (spatial information). Different RFA paradigms exist, depending on the way the information is transferred to the site of interest. Despite the wide use of such methodology, a systematic comparison between these paradigms has not been performed. The aim of this study is to provide a framework wherein carrying out the intercomparison: we thus synthetically generate data through Monte Carlo simulations for a number of (virtual) stations, following a GEV parent distribution; different scenarios can be created to represent different spatial heterogeneity patterns by manipulating the parameters of the parent distribution at each station (e.g. with a linear variation in space of the shape parameter of the GEV). A special case is the homogeneous scenario where each station record is sampled from the same parent distribution. For each scenario and each simulation, different regional models are applied to evaluate the 200-year growth factor at each station. Results are than compared to the exact growth factor of each station, which is known in our virtual world. Considered regional approaches include: (i) a single growth curve for the whole region; (ii) a multiple-region model based on cluster analysis which search for an adequate number of homogeneous subregions; (iii) a Region-of-Influence model which defines a homogeneous subregion for each site; (iv) a spatially-smooth estimation procedure based on linear regressions.. A further benchmark model is the at-site estimate based on the analysis of the local record. A comprehensive analysis of the results of the simulations shows that, if the scenario is homogeneous (no spatial variability), all the regional approaches

  9. A Cloud-Resolving Modeling Intercomparison Study on Properties of Cloud Microphysics, Convection, and Precipitation for a Squall Line Cas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, J.; Han, B.; Morrison, H.; Varble, A.; Mansell, E.; Milbrandt, J.; Wang, Y.; Lin, Y.; Dong, X.; Giangrande, S. E.; Jensen, M. P.; Collis, S. M.; North, K.; Kollias, P.

    2015-12-01

    The large spread in CRM model simulations of deep convection and aerosol effects on deep convective clouds (DCCs) makes it difficult (1) to further our understanding of deep convection and (2) to define "benchmarks" and recommendations for their use in parameterization developments. Past model intercomparison studies used different models with different complexities of dynamic-microphysics interactions, making it hard to isolate the causes of differences between simulations. In this intercomparison study, we employed a much more constrained approach - with the same model and same experiment setups for simulations with different cloud microphysics schemes (one-moment, two-moment, and bin models). Both the piggybacking and interactive approaches are employed to explore the major microphysical processes that control the model differences and the significance of their feedback to dynamics through latent heating/cooling and cold pool characteristics. Real-case simulations are conducted for the squall line case 20 May 2011 from the MC3E field campaign. Results from the piggybacking approach show substantially different responses of the microphysics schemes to the same dynamical fields. Although the interactive microphysics-dynamics simulations buffer some differences compared with those from the piggyback runs, large differences still exist and are mainly contributed by ice microphysical processes parameterizations. The presentation will include in-depth analyses of the major microphysical processes for the squall line case, the significance of the feedback of the processes to dynamics, and how those results differ in different cloud microphysics schemes.

  10. The Hydrological Impact of Geoengineering in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    SciTech Connect

    Tilmes, S.; Fasullo, John; Lamarque, J.-F.; Marsh, D.; Mills, Mike; Alterskjaer, Kari; Muri, Helene O.; Kristjansson, Jon E.; Boucher, Olivier; Schulz, M.; Cole, Jason N.; Curry, Charles L.; Jones, A.; Haywood, J.; Irvine, Peter; Ji, Duoying; Moore, John; Bou Karam, Diana; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Rasch, Philip J.; Singh, Balwinder; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Robock, Alan; Yang, Shuting; Watanabe, Shingo

    2013-10-14

    Abstract: The hydrologic impact of enhancing Earth’s albedo due to solar radiation management (SRM) is investigated using simulations from 12 models contributing to the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). An artificial experiment is investigated, where global mean temperature is preserved at pre-industrial conditions, while atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are quadrupled. The associated reduction of downwelling surface solar radiation in a high CO2 environment leads to a reduction of global evaporation of 10% and 4% and precipitation of 6.1% and 6.3% over land and ocean, respectively. An initial reduction of latent heat flux at the surface is largely driven by reduced evapotranspiration over land with instantly increasing CO2 concentrations in both experiments. A warming surface associated with the transient adjustment in the 4xCO2 experiment further generates an increase of global precipitation, with considerable regional changes, such as a significant precipitation reduction of 7% for the North American summer monsoon. Reduced global precipitation persists in the geoengineered experiment where temperatures are stabilized, with considerable regional rainfall deficits. Precipitation reductions that are consistent in sign across models are identified in the geoengineered experiment over monsoonal land regions of East Asia (6%), North America (7%), South America (6%) and South Africa (5%). In contrast to the 4xCO2 experiment, where the frequency of months with heavy precipitation intensity is increased by over 50%, it is reduced by up to 20% in the geoengineering scenario . The reduction in heavy precipitation is more pronounced over land than over the ocean, and accompanies a stronger reduction in evaporation over land. For northern mid-latitudes, maximum precipitation reduction over land ranges from 1 to 16% for individual models. For 45-65°N, the frequency of median to high intensity precipitation in summer is strongly reduced. These

  11. The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Overview and Description of Models, Simulations and Climate Diagnostics

    SciTech Connect

    Lamarque, J.-F.; Shindell, Drew; Josse, B.; Young, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Eyring, Veronika; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Collins, W. J.; Doherty, R.; Dalsoren, S.; Faluvegi, G.; Folberth, G.; Ghan, Steven J.; Horowitz, L.; Lee, Y. H.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, Vaishali; Plummer, David; Righi, M.; Rumbold, S.; Schulz, M.; Skeie, R. B.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Voulgarakis, A.; Zeng, G.

    2013-02-07

    The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) consists of a series of timeslice experiments targeting the long-term changes in atmospheric composition between 1850 and 2100, with the goal of documenting radiative forcing and the associated composition changes. Here we introduce the various simulations performed under ACCMIP and the associated model output. The ACCMIP models have a wide range of horizontal and vertical resolutions, vertical extent, chemistry schemes and interaction with radiation and clouds. While anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions were specified for all time slices in the ACCMIP protocol, it is found that the natural emissions lead to a significant range in emissions, mostly for ozone precursors. The analysis of selected present-day climate diagnostics (precipitation, temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind) reveals biases consistent with state-of-the-art climate models. The model-to-model comparison of changes in temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind between 1850 and 2000 and between 2000 and 2100 indicates mostly consistent results, but with outliers different enough to possibly affect their representation of climate impact on chemistry.

  12. Does bottom roughness determine hypoxic extent? Results from an intercomparison of hypoxia models for the northern Gulf of Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fennel, Katja; Hetland, Robert; Justic, Dubravko; Ko, Dong S.; Laurent, Arnaud; Lehrter, John; Murrell, Michael; Wang, Lixia; Yu, Liuqian; Zhang, Wenxia

    2015-04-01

    A large hypoxic zone forms every summer over the continental shelf in the northern Gulf of Mexico because of significant nutrient and freshwater inputs from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River System. Several coupled circulation-hypoxia models are under development for this region in order to improve mechanistic understanding of hypoxia formation and to inform nutrient management decisions. Here we report initial results of an intercomparison of these hypoxia models, which is being undertaken within the NOAA-funded Coastal & Ocean Modeling Testbed (COMT). Four circulation models are included: two implementations of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), one implementation of the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean model (FVCOM), and one implementation of the U.S. Navy's coastal ocean model (NCOM). In order to elucidate the effects of model physics on hypoxia, all circulation models were initially run with the same, highly simplified hypoxia model, which parameterizes oxygen sinks in water column and sediment, and includes air-sea gas exchange. The simplified hypoxia models were found to have surprisingly high predictive skill when compared with their corresponding full biogeochemical models. Oxygen consumption by the sediment was found to be the most important oxygen sink driving hypoxia generation in this region. The thickness of the bottom boundary layer effectively defines the timescale of hypoxia generation, making bottom roughness an unexpected but important factor in determining whether a model is likely to generate hypoxic conditions or not. The second step of the intercomparison will include a detailed analysis of the full ecosystem-hypoxia models. Our ultimate goal is to improve model formulations, hindcasts, forecasts and mechanistic understanding.

  13. The AeroCom evaluation and intercomparison of organic aerosol in global models

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Tsigaridis, K.; Daskalakis, N.; Kanakidou, M.; Adams, P. J.; Artaxo, P.; Bahadur, R.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S. E.; Bellouin, N.; Benedetti, A.; et al

    2014-10-15

    This paper evaluates the current status of global modeling of the organic aerosol (OA) in the troposphere and analyzes the differences between models as well as between models and observations. Thirty-one global chemistry transport models (CTMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) have participated in this intercomparison, in the framework of AeroCom phase II. The simulation of OA varies greatly between models in terms of the magnitude of primary emissions, secondary OA (SOA) formation, the number of OA species used (2 to 62), the complexity of OA parameterizations (gas-particle partitioning, chemical aging, multiphase chemistry, aerosol microphysics), and the OA physical, chemicalmore » and optical properties. The diversity of the global OA simulation results has increased since earlier AeroCom experiments, mainly due to the increasing complexity of the SOA parameterization in models, and the implementation of new, highly uncertain, OA sources. Diversity of over one order of magnitude exists in the modeled vertical distribution of OA concentrations that deserves a dedicated future study. Furthermore, although the OA / OC ratio depends on OA sources and atmospheric processing, and is important for model evaluation against OA and OC observations, it is resolved only by a few global models. The median global primary OA (POA) source strength is 56 Tg a–1 (range 34–144 Tg a−1) and the median SOA source strength (natural and anthropogenic) is 19 Tg a–1 (range 13–121 Tg a−1). Among the models that take into account the semi-volatile SOA nature, the median source is calculated to be 51 Tg a–1 (range 16–121 Tg a−1), much larger than the median value of the models that calculate SOA in a more simplistic way (19 Tg a–1; range 13–20 Tg a–1, with one model at 37 Tg a−1). The median atmospheric burden of OA is 1.4 Tg (24 models in the range of 0.6–2.0 Tg and 4 between 2.0 and 3.8 Tg), with a median OA lifetime of 5.4 days (range 3.8–9.6 days

  14. The AeroCom evaluation and intercomparison of organic aerosol in global models

    SciTech Connect

    Tsigaridis, K.; Daskalakis, N.; Kanakidou, M.; Adams, P. J.; Artaxo, P.; Bahadur, R.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S. E.; Bellouin, N.; Benedetti, A.; Bergman, T.; Berntsen, T. K.; Beukes, J. P.; Bian, H.; Carslaw, K. S.; Chin, M.; Curci, G.; Diehl, T.; Easter, R. C.; Ghan, S. J.; Gong, S. L.; Hodzic, A.; Hoyle, C. R.; Iversen, T.; Jathar, S.; Jimenez, J. L.; Kaiser, J. W.; Kirkevåg, A.; Koch, D.; Kokkola, H.; Lee, Y. H.; Lin, G.; Liu, X.; Luo, G.; Ma, X.; Mann, G. W.; Mihalopoulos, N.; Morcrette, J. -J.; Müller, J. -F.; Myhre, G.; Myriokefalitakis, S.; Ng, N. L.; O'Donnell, D.; Penner, J. E.; Pozzoli, L.; Pringle, K. J.; Russell, L. M.; Schulz, M.; Sciare, J.; Seland, Ø.; Shindell, D. T.; Sillman, S.; Skeie, R. B.; Spracklen, D.; Stavrakou, T.; Steenrod, S. D.; Takemura, T.; Tiitta, P.; Tilmes, S.; Tost, H.; van Noije, T.; van Zyl, P. G.; von Salzen, K.; Yu, F.; Wang, Z.; Wang, Z.; Zaveri, R. A.; Zhang, H.; Zhang, K.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, X.

    2014-10-15

    This paper evaluates the current status of global modeling of the organic aerosol (OA) in the troposphere and analyzes the differences between models as well as between models and observations. Thirty-one global chemistry transport models (CTMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) have participated in this intercomparison, in the framework of AeroCom phase II. The simulation of OA varies greatly between models in terms of the magnitude of primary emissions, secondary OA (SOA) formation, the number of OA species used (2 to 62), the complexity of OA parameterizations (gas-particle partitioning, chemical aging, multiphase chemistry, aerosol microphysics), and the OA physical, chemical and optical properties. The diversity of the global OA simulation results has increased since earlier AeroCom experiments, mainly due to the increasing complexity of the SOA parameterization in models, and the implementation of new, highly uncertain, OA sources. Diversity of over one order of magnitude exists in the modeled vertical distribution of OA concentrations that deserves a dedicated future study. Furthermore, although the OA / OC ratio depends on OA sources and atmospheric processing, and is important for model evaluation against OA and OC observations, it is resolved only by a few global models.

    The median global primary OA (POA) source strength is 56 Tg a–1 (range 34–144 Tg a−1) and the median SOA source strength (natural and anthropogenic) is 19 Tg a–1 (range 13–121 Tg a−1). Among the models that take into account the semi-volatile SOA nature, the median source is calculated to be 51 Tg a–1 (range 16–121 Tg a−1), much larger than the median value of the models that calculate SOA in a more simplistic way (19 Tg a–1; range 13–20 Tg a–1, with one model at 37 Tg a−1). The median atmospheric burden of OA is 1.4 Tg (24 models in the range of 0

  15. The North American Carbon Program Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project - Part 2: Environmental driver data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Y.; Liu, S.; Huntzinger, D. N.; Michalak, A. M.; Viovy, N.; Post, W. M.; Schwalm, C. R.; Schaefer, K.; Jacobson, A. R.; Lu, C.; Tian, H.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Cook, R. B.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.

    2013-11-01

    Ecosystems are important and dynamic components of the global carbon cycle, and terrestrial biospheric models (TBMs) are crucial tools in further understanding of how terrestrial carbon is stored and exchanged with the atmosphere across a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Improving TBM model skills, and quantifying and reducing their estimation uncertainties, pose significant challenges. The Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP) is a formal multi-scale and multi-model intercomparison effort set up to tackle these challenges. The MsTMIP protocol prescribes standardized environmental driver data that are shared among model teams to facilitate model-model and model-observation comparisons. This paper describes the global and North American environmental driver data sets prepared for the MsTMIP activity to both support their use in MsTMIP and make these data, along with the processes used in selecting/processing these data, accessible to a broader audience. Based on project needs, we compiled climate, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, nitrogen deposition, land-use and land-cover change (LULCC), C3/C4 grasses fractions, major crops, phenology, and soil data into a standard format for global (0.5° x 0.5° resolution) and regional (North American, 0.25° x 0.25° resolution) simulations. In order to meet the needs of MsTMIP, improvements were made to several of the original environmental data sets, by changing the quality, the spatial and temporal coverage, resolution, or a combination of these. The resulting standardized model driver data sets are being used by over 20 different models participating MsTMIP. The data are archived at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center (ORNL DAAC, http://daac.ornl.gov) to provide long-term data management and distribution.

  16. An Intercomparison of the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) and the Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB) Modeling Schemes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An intercomparison of output from two models estimating spatially distributed surface energy fluxes from remotely sensed imagery is conducted. A major difference between the two models is whether the soil and vegetation components of the scene are treated separately (Two-Source Energy Balance; TSEB ...

  17. The fourth radiation transfer model intercomparison (RAMI-IV): Proficiency testing of canopy reflectance models with ISO-13528

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Widlowski, J.-L.; Pinty, B.; Lopatka, M.; Atzberger, C.; Buzica, D.; Chelle, M.; Disney, M.; Gastellu-Etchegorry, J.-P.; Gerboles, M.; Gobron, N.; Grau, E.; Huang, H.; Kallel, A.; Kobayashi, H.; Lewis, P. E.; Qin, W.; Schlerf, M.; Stuckens, J.; Xie, D.

    2013-07-01

    The radiation transfer model intercomparison (RAMI) activity aims at assessing the reliability of physics-based radiative transfer (RT) models under controlled experimental conditions. RAMI focuses on computer simulation models that mimic the interactions of radiation with plant canopies. These models are increasingly used in the development of satellite retrieval algorithms for terrestrial essential climate variables (ECVs). Rather than applying ad hoc performance metrics, RAMI-IV makes use of existing ISO standards to enhance the rigor of its protocols evaluating the quality of RT models. ISO-13528 was developed "to determine the performance of individual laboratories for specific tests or measurements." More specifically, it aims to guarantee that measurement results fall within specified tolerance criteria from a known reference. Of particular interest to RAMI is that ISO-13528 provides guidelines for comparisons where the true value of the target quantity is unknown. In those cases, "truth" must be replaced by a reliable "conventional reference value" to enable absolute performance tests. This contribution will show, for the first time, how the ISO-13528 standard developed by the chemical and physical measurement communities can be applied to proficiency testing of computer simulation models. Step by step, the pre-screening of data, the identification of reference solutions, and the choice of proficiency statistics will be discussed and illustrated with simulation results from the RAMI-IV "abstract canopy" scenarios. Detailed performance statistics of the participating RT models will be provided and the role of the accuracy of the reference solutions as well as the choice of the tolerance criteria will be highlighted.

  18. Inter-Comparison of Retrieved and Modelled Soil Moisture and Coherency of Remotely Sensed Hydrology Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kolassa, Jana; Aires, Filipe

    2013-04-01

    A neural network algorithm has been developed for the retrieval of Soil Moisture (SM) from global satellite observations. The algorithm estimates soil moisture from a synergy of passive and active microwave, infrared and visible satellite observations in order to capture the different SM variabilities that the individual sensors are sensitive to. The advantages and drawbacks of each satellite observation have been analysed and the information type and content carried by each observation have been determined. A global data set of monthly mean soil moisture for the 1993-2000 period has been computed with the neural network algorithm (Kolassa et al., in press, 2012). The resulting soil moisture retrieval product has then been used in an inter-comparison study including soil moisture from (1) the HTESSEL model (Balsamo et al., 2009), (2) the WACMOS satellite product (Liu et al., 2011), and (3) in situ measurements from the International Soil Moisture Network (Dorigo et al., 2011). The analysis showed that the satellite remote sensing products are well-suited to capture the spatial variability of the in situ data and even show the potential to improve the modelled soil moisture. Both satellite retrievals also display a good agreement with the temporal structures of the in situ data, however, HTESSEL appears to be more suitable for capturing the temporal variability (Kolassa et al., in press, 2012). The use of this type of neural network approach is currently being investigated as a retrieval option for the SMOS mission. Our soil moisture retrieval product has also been used in a coherence study with precipitation data from GPCP (Adler et al., 2003) and inundation estimates from GIEMS (Prigent et al., 2007). It was investigated on a global scale whether the three observation-based datasets are coherent with each other and show the expected behaviour. For most regions of the Earth, the datasets were consistent and the behaviour observed could be explained with the known

  19. Intercomparison of 20th century tropical climate model hindcasts and coral δ18O data using a forward proxy model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, D. M.; Evans, M. N.; Ault, T. R.; Cole, J. E.; Emile-Geay, J.

    2009-12-01

    different from that of both corals and historical SSTs. Sources of uncertainty in the model-data intercomparison include error in: climate model output due to external forcings and/or low grid/time resolution; the forward model due to the use of SSS as a proxy for seawater δ18O; and the proxies due to age uncertainty and the sparse observational network.

  20. Evaluation of the Earth System CoG Infrastructure in Supporting a Model Intercomparison Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wallis, J. C.; Rood, R. B.; Murphy, S.; Cinquini, L.; DeLuca, C.

    2013-12-01

    Earth System CoG is a web-based collaboration environment that combines data services with metadata and project management services. The environment is particularly suited to support software development and model intercomparison projects. CoG was recently used to support the National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform (NCPP) Quantitative Evaluation of Downscaling (QED-2013) workshop. QED-2013 was a workshop with a community approach for the objective, quantitative evaluation of techniques to downscale climate model predictions and projections. This paper will present a brief introduction to CoG, QED-2013, and findings from an ethnographic evaluation of how CoG supported QED-2013. The QED-2013 workshop focused on real-world application problems drawn from several sectors, and contributed to the informed use of downscaled data. This workshop is a part of a larger effort by NCPP and partner organizations to develop a standardized evaluation framework for local and regional climate information. The main goals of QED-2013 were to a) coordinate efforts for quantitative evaluation, b) develop software infrastructure, c) develop a repository of information, d) develop translational and guidance information, e) identify and engage key user communities, and f) promote collaboration and interoperability. CoG was a key player in QED-2013 support. NCPP was an early adopter of the CoG platform, providing valuable recommendations for overall development plus specific workshop-related requirements. New CoG features developed for QED-2013 included: the ability to publish images and associated metadata contained within XML files to its associated data node combine both artifacts into an integrated display. The ability to modify data search facets into scientifically relevant groups and display dynamic lists of workshop participants and their interests was also added to the interface. During the workshop, the QED-2013 project page on CoG provided meeting logistics, meeting

  1. An evaluation of 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States as simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    David E. Rupp

    2016-01-01

    The 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States and surrounding areas as simulated by global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was evaluated. A suite of statistics that characterize various aspects of the regional climate was calculated from both model simulations and observation-based datasets. CMIP5 global climate models were ranked by their ability to reproduce the observed climate. Differences in the performance of the models between regions of the United States (the Southeastern and Northwestern United States) warrant a regional-scale assessment of CMIP5 models.

  2. An inter-comparison of PM10 source apportionment using PCA and PMF receptor models in three European sites.

    PubMed

    Cesari, Daniela; Amato, F; Pandolfi, M; Alastuey, A; Querol, X; Contini, D

    2016-08-01

    Source apportionment of aerosol is an important approach to investigate aerosol formation and transformation processes as well as to assess appropriate mitigation strategies and to investigate causes of non-compliance with air quality standards (Directive 2008/50/CE). Receptor models (RMs) based on chemical composition of aerosol measured at specific sites are a useful, and widely used, tool to perform source apportionment. However, an analysis of available studies in the scientific literature reveals heterogeneities in the approaches used, in terms of "working variables" such as the number of samples in the dataset and the number of chemical species used as well as in the modeling tools used. In this work, an inter-comparison of PM10 source apportionment results obtained at three European measurement sites is presented, using two receptor models: principal component analysis coupled with multi-linear regression analysis (PCA-MLRA) and positive matrix factorization (PMF). The inter-comparison focuses on source identification, quantification of source contribution to PM10, robustness of the results, and how these are influenced by the number of chemical species available in the datasets. Results show very similar component/factor profiles identified by PCA and PMF, with some discrepancies in the number of factors. The PMF model appears to be more suitable to separate secondary sulfate and secondary nitrate with respect to PCA at least in the datasets analyzed. Further, some difficulties have been observed with PCA in separating industrial and heavy oil combustion contributions. Commonly at all sites, the crustal contributions found with PCA were larger than those found with PMF, and the secondary inorganic aerosol contributions found by PCA were lower than those found by PMF. Site-dependent differences were also observed for traffic and marine contributions. The inter-comparison of source apportionment performed on complete datasets (using the full range of

  3. Simulating wind energy resources with mesoscale models: Intercomparison of state-of-the-art models over Northern Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hahmann, A. N.

    2015-12-01

    Mesoscale models are increasingly being used to estimate wind conditions to identify perspective areas and sites where to develop wind farm projects. Mesoscale models are useful because they give information over extensive areas with various terrain complexities where measurements are scarce and measurement campaigns costly. Various mesoscale models and families of mesoscale models are being used, with thousands of setup options. Since long-term integrations are expensive and tedious to carry out, only limited comparisons exist. We have carried out a blind benchmarking study to evaluate the capabilities of mesoscale models used in wind energy to estimate site wind conditions: to highlight common issues on mesoscale modeling of wind conditions on sites with different characteristics, and to identify gaps and strengths of models and understand the root conditions for further evaluating uncertainties. Three experimental sites with tall mast measurements were selected: FINO3 (offshore), Høvsøre (coastal), and Cabauw (land-based). The participants were asked to provide hourly time series of wind speed and direction, temperature, etc., at various heights for 2011. The methods used were left to the choice of the participants, but they were asked for a detailed description of their model and many other parameters (e.g., horizontal and vertical resolution, model parameterizations, surface roughness length) that could be used to group the models and interpret the results of the intercomparison. The analysis of the time series includes comparison to observations, summarized with well-known measures such as biases, RMSE, correlations, and of sector-wise statistics, and the temporal spectra. The statistics were grouped by the models, their spatial resolution, forcing data, various integration methods, etc. The results show high fidelity of the various entries in simulating the wind climate at the offshore and coastal site. Over land and the statistics of other derived fields

  4. Modeling of pesticide emissions from agricultural ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Rong

    2012-04-01

    Pesticides are applied to crops and soils to improve agricultural yields, but the use of pesticides has become highly regulated because of concerns about their adverse effects on human health and environment. Estimating pesticide emission rates from soils and crops is a key component for risk assessment for pesticide registration, identification of pesticide sources to the contamination of sensitive ecosystems, and appreciation of transport and fate of pesticides in the environment. Pesticide emission rates involve processes occurring in the soil, in the atmosphere, and on vegetation surfaces and are highly dependent on soil texture, agricultural practices, and meteorology, which vary significantly with location and/or time. To take all these factors into account for simulating pesticide emissions from large agricultural ecosystems, this study coupled a comprehensive meteorological model with a dynamic pesticide emission model. The combined model calculates hourly emission rates from both emission sources: current applications and soil residues resulting from historical use. The coupled modeling system is used to compute a gridded (36 × 36 km) hourly toxaphene emission inventory for North America for the year 2000 using a published U.S. toxaphene residue inventory and a Mexican toxaphene residue inventory developed using its historical application rates and a cropland inventory. To my knowledge, this is the first such hourly toxaphene emission inventory for North America. Results show that modeled emission rates have strong diurnal and seasonal variations at a given location and over the entire domain. The simulated total toxaphene emission from contaminated agricultural soils in North America in 2000 was about 255 t, which compares reasonably well to a published annual estimate. Most emissions occur in spring and summer, with domain-wide emission rates in April, May and, June of 36, 51, and 35 t/month, respectively. The spatial distribution of emissions depends

  5. Looking beyond general metrics for model evaluation - lessons from an international model intercomparison study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouaziz, Laurène; de Boer-Euser, Tanja; Brauer, Claudia; Drogue, Gilles; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Grelier, Benjamin; de Niel, Jan; Nossent, Jiri; Pereira, Fernando; Savenije, Hubert; Thirel, Guillaume; Willems, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    International collaboration between institutes and universities is a promising way to reach consensus on hydrological model development. Education, experience and expert knowledge of the hydrological community have resulted in the development of a great variety of model concepts, calibration methods and analysis techniques. Although comparison studies are very valuable for international cooperation, they do often not lead to very clear new insights regarding the relevance of the modelled processes. We hypothesise that this is partly caused by model complexity and the used comparison methods, which focus on a good overall performance instead of focusing on specific events. We propose an approach that focuses on the evaluation of specific events. Eight international research groups calibrated their model for the Ourthe catchment in Belgium (1607 km2) and carried out a validation in time for the Ourthe (i.e. on two different periods, one of them on a blind mode for the modellers) and a validation in space for nested and neighbouring catchments of the Meuse in a completely blind mode. For each model, the same protocol was followed and an ensemble of best performing parameter sets was selected. Signatures were first used to assess model performances in the different catchments during validation. Comparison of the models was then followed by evaluation of selected events, which include: low flows, high flows and the transition from low to high flows. While the models show rather similar performances based on general metrics (i.e. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency), clear differences can be observed for specific events. While most models are able to simulate high flows well, large differences are observed during low flows and in the ability to capture the first peaks after drier months. The transferability of model parameters to neighbouring and nested catchments is assessed as an additional measure in the model evaluation. This suggested approach helps to select, among competing

  6. Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.; Alexander, K.; Zickfeld, K.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Cimatoribus, A. A.; Crespin, E.; Drijfhout, S. S.; Edwards, N. R.; Eliseev, A. V.; Feulner, G.; Fichefet, T.; Forest, C. E.; Goosse, H.; Holden, P. B.; Joos, F.; Kawamiya, M.; Kicklighter, D.; Kienert, H.; Matsumoto, K.; Mokhov, I. I.; Monier, E.; Olsen, S. M.; Pedersen, J. O. P.; Perrette, M.; Philippon-Berthier, G.; Ridgwell, A.; Schlosser, A.; Schneider von Deimling, T.; Shaffer, G.; Smith, R. S.; Spahni, R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Steinacher, M.; Tachiiri, K.; Tokos, K.; Yoshimori, M.; Zeng, N.; Zhao, F.

    2013-05-01

    Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate-carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate-carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the

  7. Winter cyclone frequencies in thirteen models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP1)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lambert, S. J.; Sheng, J.; Boyle, J.

    Various aspects of the simulated behaviour of cyclones in thirteen models participating in the AMIP1 exercise are presented. In the simulation of the winter climatological mean sea level pressure field for the Northern Hemisphere, the models produce reasonable simulations of the "semi-permanent" features of the climatology. The greatest departures from the observed climatology occur near the exit regions of the oceanic storm tracks; i.e., over northwestern North America, over and to the west of the British Isles and in the Mediterranean. The departures in the three geographical areas are very systematic in that at least eleven of the models exhibit similar departures from observations. In the Southern Hemisphere the intensity of the circumpolar trough is generally well simulated but positioned slightly too far north. Most models exhibit errors south of Africa, New Zealand, and South America. The simulations of the cyclone events show that the models are reasonably successful in reproducing the large-scale aspects of observed cyclone events but deficiencies in the details of the simulations are apparent. The paucity of simulated events to the south of the Alps and to the east of the Rockies suggests that the models have difficulty simulating lee cyclogenesis. Over much of North America, the models have difficulty simulating the correct level of synoptic activity as demonstrated by the low numbers of both cyclone events and anticyclone events. The models have difficulty simulating the distribution of cyclone events as a function of central pressure. The most common problem is that the models exhibit an ever increasing deficit of events with decreasing central pressure. This problem is more apparent in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere and does not appear to be resolution dependent. There is an apparent ENSO signal in the observed Northern Hemisphere interannual variability of intense winter cyclone events. With the exception of ECMWF, the models

  8. Inter-comparison of Computer Codes for TRISO-based Fuel Micro-Modeling and Performance Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Brian Boer; Chang Keun Jo; Wen Wu; Abderrafi M. Ougouag; Donald McEachren; Francesco Venneri

    2010-10-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP), the Deep Burn Pebble Bed Reactor (DB-PBR) and the Deep Burn Prismatic Block Reactor (DB-PMR) are all based on fuels that use TRISO particles as their fundamental constituent. The TRISO particle properties include very high durability in radiation environments, hence the designs reliance on the TRISO to form the principal barrier to radioactive materials release. This durability forms the basis for the selection of this fuel type for applications such as Deep Bun (DB), which require exposures up to four times those expected for light water reactors. It follows that the study and prediction of the durability of TRISO particles must be carried as part of the safety and overall performance characterization of all the designs mentioned above. Such evaluations have been carried out independently by the performers of the DB project using independently developed codes. These codes, PASTA, PISA and COPA, incorporate models for stress analysis on the various layers of the TRISO particle (and of the intervening matrix material for some of them), model for fission products release and migration then accumulation within the SiC layer of the TRISO particle, just next to the layer, models for free oxygen and CO formation and migration to the same location, models for temperature field modeling within the various layers of the TRISO particle and models for the prediction of failure rates. All these models may be either internal to the code or external. This large number of models and the possibility of different constitutive data and model formulations and the possibility of a variety of solution techniques makes it highly unlikely that the model would give identical results in the modeling of identical situations. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of an inter-comparison between the codes and to identify areas of agreement and areas that need reconciliation. The inter-comparison has been carried out by the cooperating

  9. Evaluation of Present-day Aerosols over China Simulated from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, H.; Chang, W.

    2014-12-01

    High concentrations of aerosols over China lead to strong radiative forcing that is important for both regional and global climate. To understand the representation of aerosols in China in current global climate models, we evaluate extensively the simulated present-day aerosol concentrations and aerosol optical depth (AOD) over China from the 12 models that participated in Atmospheric Chemistry & Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), by using ground-based measurements and satellite remote sensing. Ground-based measurements of aerosol concentrations used in this work include those from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Atmosphere Watch Network (CAWNET) and the observed fine-mode aerosol concentrations collected from the literature. The ground-based measurements of AOD in China are taken from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET), the sites with CIMEL sun photometer operated by Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and from Chinese Sun Hazemeter Network (CSHNET). We find that the ACCMIP models generally underestimate concentrations of all major aerosol species in China. On an annual mean basis, the multi-model mean concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, and organic carbon are underestimated by 63%, 73%, 54%, 53%, and 59%, respectively. The multi-model mean AOD values show low biases of 20-40% at studied sites in China. The ACCMIP models can reproduce seasonal variation of nitrate but cannot capture well the seasonal variations of other aerosol species. Our analyses indicate that current global models generally underestimate the role of aerosols in China in climate simulations.

  10. A Spatial Data Model Desing For The Management Of Agricultural Data (Farmer, Agricultural Land And Agricultural Production)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taşkanat, Talha; İbrahim İnan, Halil

    2016-04-01

    Since the beginning of the 2000s, it has been conducted many projects such as Agricultural Sector Integrated Management Information System, Agriculture Information System, Agricultural Production Registry System and Farmer Registry System by the Turkish Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock and the Turkish Statistical Institute in order to establish and manage better agricultural policy and produce better agricultural statistics in Turkey. Yet, it has not been carried out any study for the structuring of a system which can meet the requirements of different institutions and organizations that need similar agricultural data. It has been tried to meet required data only within the frame of the legal regulations from present systems. Whereas the developments in GIS (Geographical Information Systems) and standardization, and Turkey National GIS enterprise in this context necessitate to meet the demands of organizations that use the similar data commonly and to act in terms of a data model logic. In this study, 38 institutions or organization which produce and use agricultural data were detected, that and thanks to survey and interviews undertaken, their needs were tried to be determined. In this study which is financially supported by TUBITAK, it was worked out relationship between farmer, agricultural land and agricultural production data and all of the institutions and organizations in Turkey and in this context, it was worked upon the best detailed and effective possible data model. In the model design, UML which provides object-oriented design was used. In the data model, for the management of spatial data, sub-parcel data model was used. Thanks to this data model, declared and undeclared areas can be detected spatially, and thus declarations can be associated to sub-parcels. Within this framework, it will be able to developed agricultural policies as a result of acquiring more extensive, accurate, spatially manageable and easily updatable farmer and

  11. Longitudinal Inter-Comparison of Modeled and Measured West Greenland Ice Sheet Meltwater Runoff Losses (2004-2014)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moustafa, S.; Rennermalm, A. K.; Tedesco, M.; Mote, T. L.; Koenig, L.; Smith, L. C.; Hagedorn, B.; Overeem, I.; Sletten, R. S.; Mikkelsen, A. B.; Hasholt, B.; Hall, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    Increased surface meltwater runoff, that exits the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) margin via supra-, en-, and sub-glacial drainage networks into fjords, pro-glacial lakes and rivers, accounts for half or more of total mass loss. Despite its importance, modeled meltwater runoff fluxes are poorly constrained, primarily due to a lack of direct in situ observations. Here, we present the first ever longitudinal (north-south) inter-comparison of a multi-year dataset (2004-2014) of discharge for four drainage basins - Watson, Akuliarusiarsuup Kuua, Naujat Kuat, and North Rivers - along West Greenland. These in situ hydrologic measurements are compared with modeled runoff output from Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) regional climate model, and the performance of the model is examined. An analysis of the relationship between modeled and actual ice sheet runoff patterns is assessed, and provides insight into the model's ability to capture inter-annual and intra-annual variability, spatiotemporal patterns, and extreme melt events. This study's findings will inform future development and parameterization of ice sheet surface mass balance models.

  12. Photochemical modeling in California with two chemical mechanisms: model intercomparison and response to emission reductions.

    PubMed

    Cai, Chenxia; Kelly, James T; Avise, Jeremy C; Kaduwela, Ajith P; Stockwell, William R

    2011-05-01

    An updated version of the Statewide Air Pollution Research Center (SAPRC) chemical mechanism (SAPRC07C) was implemented into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) version 4.6. CMAQ simulations using SAPRC07C and the previously released version, SAPRC99, were performed and compared for an episode during July-August, 2000. Ozone (O3) predictions of the SAPRC07C simulation are generally lower than those of the SAPRC99 simulation in the key areas of central and southern California, especially in areas where modeled concentrations are greater than the federal 8-hr O3 standard of 75 parts per billion (ppb) and/or when the volatile organic compound (VOC)/nitrogen oxides (NOx) ratio is less than 13. The relative changes of ozone production efficiency (OPE) against the VOC/NOx ratio at 46 sites indicate that the OPE is reduced in SAPRC07C compared with SAPRC99 at most sites by as much as approximately 22%. The SAPRC99 and SAPRC07C mechanisms respond similarly to 20% reductions in anthropogenic VOC emissions. The response of the mechanisms to 20% NOx emissions reductions can be grouped into three cases. In case 1, in which both mechanisms show a decrease in daily maximum 8-hr O3 concentration with decreasing NOx emissions, the O3 decrease in SAPRC07C is smaller. In case 2, in which both mechanisms show an increase in O3 with decreasing NOx emissions, the O3 increase is larger in SAPRC07C. In case 3, SAPRC07C simulates an increase in O3 in response to reduced NOx emissions whereas SAPRC99 simulates a decrease in O3 for the same region. As a result, the areas where NOx controls would be disbeneficial are spatially expanded in SAPRC07C. Although the results presented here are valuable for understanding differences in predictions and model response for SAPRC99 and SAPRC07C, the study did not evaluate the impact of mechanism differences in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's guidance for using numerical models in demonstrating air quality attainment

  13. Historical and future land carbon cycle, results from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedlingstein, Pierre; Anav, Alessandro; Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo; Wenzel, Sabrina; Cox, Peter; Eyring, Veronika

    2014-05-01

    The 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) provided a unique source of Earth System Models simulations, generating an unprecedented range of analysis of many components of the climate system. In this presentation we will focus on the land carbon cycle, its response to the historical perturbation and its projected response in the future under the forcing of the different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. There is a broad agreement across models on the evolution of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Carbon sink driven by atmospheric CO2 increase more than compensates now the carbon sources due to land use changes, consistent with independent estimates. The future of the land carbon cycle is significantly more uncertain, even for a given RCP scenario. There is no overall agreement across models on the sign of the land carbon sink by the end of the 21st century, land carbon cycle sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 increase and climate change being strongly model dependent. Model evaluation and use of emerging constraint should help reduce uncertainties in future carbon cycle projections.

  14. Four absolute cavity radiometer (pyrheliometer) intercomparisons at New River, Arizona: radiometer standards

    SciTech Connect

    Estey, R.S.; Seaman, C.H.

    1981-07-01

    Four detailed intercomparisons were made for a number of models of cavity-type self-calibrating radiometers (pyrheliometers). Each intercomparison consisted of simultaneous readings of pyrheliometers at 30-second intervals in runs of 10 minutes, with at least 15 runs per intercomparison. Twenty-seven instruments were in at least one intercomparison, and five were in all four. Summarized results and all raw data are provided from the intercomparisons.

  15. Multi-model climate impact assessment and intercomparison for three large-scale river basins on three continents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vetter, T.; Huang, S.; Aich, V.; Yang, T.; Wang, X.; Krysanova, V.; Hattermann, F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change impacts on hydrological processes should be simulated for river basins using validated models and multiple climate scenarios in order to provide reliable results for stakeholders. In the last 10-15 years, climate impact assessment has been performed for many river basins worldwide using different climate scenarios and models. However, their results are hardly comparable, and do not allow one to create a full picture of impacts and uncertainties. Therefore, a systematic intercomparison of impacts is suggested, which should be done for representative regions using state-of-the-art models. Only a few such studies have been available until now with the global-scale hydrological models, and our study is intended as a step in this direction by applying the regional-scale models. The impact assessment presented here was performed for three river basins on three continents: the Rhine in Europe, the Upper Niger in Africa and the Upper Yellow in Asia. For that, climate scenarios from five general circulation models (GCMs) and three hydrological models, HBV, SWIM and VIC, were used. Four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) covering a range of emissions and land-use change projections were included. The objectives were to analyze and compare climate impacts on future river discharge and to evaluate uncertainties from different sources. The results allow one to draw some robust conclusions, but uncertainties are large and shared differently between sources in the studied basins. Robust results in terms of trend direction and slope and changes in seasonal dynamics could be found for the Rhine basin regardless of which hydrological model or forcing GCM is used. For the Niger River, scenarios from climate models are the largest uncertainty source, providing large discrepancies in precipitation, and therefore clear projections are difficult to do. For the Upper Yellow basin, both the hydrological models and climate models contribute to uncertainty in the

  16. Host Model Uncertainties in Aerosol Radiative Forcing Estimates: Results from the AeroCom Prescribed Intercomparison Study

    SciTech Connect

    Stier, Phillip; Schutgens, Nick A.; Bellouin, N.; Bian, Huisheng; Boucher, Olivier; Chin, Mian; Ghan, Steven J.; Huneeus, N.; Kinne, Stefan; Lin, G.; Ma, Xiaoyan; Myhre, G.; Penner, J. E.; Randles, Cynthia; Samset, B. H.; Schulz, M.; Takemura, T.; Yu, Fangqun; Yu, Hongbin; Zhou, Cheng

    2013-03-20

    Simulated multi-model "diversity" in aerosol direct radiative forcing estimates is often perceived as mea- sure of aerosol uncertainty. However, current models used for aerosol radiative forcing calculations vary considerably in model components relevant for forcing calculations and the associated "host-model uncertainties" are generally convoluted with the actual aerosol uncertainty. In this AeroCom Prescribed intercomparison study we systematically isolate and quantify host model uncertainties on aerosol forcing experiments through prescription of identical aerosol radiative properties in nine participating models. Even with prescribed aerosol radiative properties,simulated clear-sky and all-sky aerosol radiative forcings show significant diversity. For a purely scattering case with globally constant optical depth of 0.2, the global-mean all-sky top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing is -4.51 Wm-2 and the inter-model standard deviation is 0.70 Wm-2, corresponding to a relative standard deviation of 15%. For a case with partially absorbing aerosol with an aerosol optical depth of 0.2 and single scattering albedo of 0.8, the forcing changes to 1.26 Wm-2, and the standard deviation increases to 1.21 W-2, corresponding to a significant relative standard deviation of 96%. However, the top-of-atmosphere forcing variability owing to absorption is low, with relative standard deviations of 9% clear-sky and 12% all-sky. Scaling the forcing standard deviation for a purely scattering case to match the sulfate radiative in the AeroCom Direct Effect experiment, demonstrates that host model uncertain- ties could explain about half of the overall sulfate forcing diversity of 0.13 Wm-2 in the AeroCom Direct Radiative Effect experiment. Host model errors in aerosol radiative forcing are largest in regions of uncertain host model components, such as stratocumulus cloud decks or areas with poorly constrained.

  17. Intercomparison of remote sensing-based evapotranspiration models using SGP and SMEX data

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Accurate characterization of evapotranspiration (ET) over a range of spatial and temporal scales is critical for many applications in hydrology, ecohydrology, meteorology, climatology, and agriculture. Over the past several years, there has been a major effort devoted to the development and refineme...

  18. Results of the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project: Evaluation of sea ice rheology schemes for use in climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kreyscher, Martin; Harder, Markus; Lemke, Peter; Flato, Gregory M.

    2000-05-01

    A hierarchy of sea ice rheologies is evaluated on the basis of a comprehensive set of observational data. The investigations are part of the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). Four different sea ice rheology schemes are compared: a viscous-plastic rheology, a cavitating-fluid model, a compressible Newtonian fluid, and a simple free drift approach with velocity correction. The same grid, land boundaries, and forcing fields are applied to all models. As verification data, there are (1) ice thickness data from upward looking sonars (ULS), (2) ice concentration data from the passive microwave radiometers SMMR and SSM/I, (3) daily buoy drift data obtained by the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP), and (4) satellite-derived ice drift fields based on the 85 GHz channel of SSM/I. All models are optimized individually with respect to mean drift speed and daily drift speed statistics. The impact of ice strength on the ice cover is best revealed by the spatial pattern of ice thickness, ice drift on different timescales, daily drift speed statistics, and the drift velocities in Fram Strait. Overall, the viscous-plastic rheology yields the most realistic simulation. In contrast, the results of the very simple free-drift model with velocity correction clearly show large errors in simulated ice drift as well as in ice thicknesses and ice export through Fram Strait compared to observation. The compressible Newtonian fluid cannot prevent excessive ice thickness buildup in the central Arctic and overestimates the internal forces in Fram Strait. Because of the lack of shear strength, the cavitating-fluid model shows marked differences to the statistics of observed ice drift and the observed spatial pattern of ice thickness. Comparison of required computer resources demonstrates that the additional cost for the viscous-plastic sea ice rheology is minor compared with the atmospheric and oceanic model components in global climate simulations.

  19. Sea spray geoengineering experiments in the geoengineering model intercomparison project (GeoMIP): Experimental design and preliminary results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kravitz, Ben; Forster, Piers M.; Jones, Andy; Robock, Alan; Alterskjær, Kari; Boucher, Olivier; Jenkins, Annabel K. L.; Korhonen, Hannele; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Muri, Helene; Niemeier, Ulrike; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong; Watanabe, Shingo

    2013-10-01

    cloud brightening through sea spray injection has been proposed as a method of temporarily alleviating some of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change, as part of a set of technologies called geoengineering. We outline here a proposal for three coordinated climate modeling experiments to test aspects of sea spray geoengineering, to be conducted under the auspices of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The first, highly idealized, experiment (G1ocean-albedo) involves a uniform increase in ocean albedo to offset an instantaneous quadrupling of CO2 concentrations from preindustrial levels. Results from a single climate model show an increased land-sea temperature contrast, Arctic warming, and large shifts in annual mean precipitation patterns. The second experiment (G4cdnc) involves increasing cloud droplet number concentration in all low-level marine clouds to offset some of the radiative forcing of an RCP4.5 scenario. This experiment will test the robustness of models in simulating geographically heterogeneous radiative flux changes and their effects on climate. The third experiment (G4sea-salt) involves injection of sea spray aerosols into the marine boundary layer between 30°S and 30°N to offset 2 W m-2 of the effective radiative forcing of an RCP4.5 scenario. A single model study shows that the induced effective radiative forcing is largely confined to the latitudes in which injection occurs. In this single model simulation, the forcing due to aerosol-radiation interactions is stronger than the forcing due to aerosol-cloud interactions.

  20. A Model for Agricultural Education in Public Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hughes, Matthew; Barrick, R. Kirby

    1993-01-01

    A model for public school agricultural education is based on changes in the agriculture industry, student population, society, education, and the workplace. Its three components are classroom/lab instruction, application (supervised agricultural experience and Future Farmers of America), and employment/additional education and career (including…

  1. The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) Software Development: Applications, Infrastructure, and Middleware/Networks

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, Dean N.

    2011-06-30

    The status of and future plans for the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) hinge on software that PCMDI is either currently distributing or plans to distribute to the climate community in the near future. These software products include standard conventions, national and international federated infrastructures, and community analysis and visualization tools. This report also mentions other secondary software not necessarily led by or developed at PCMDI to provide a complete picture of the overarching applications, infrastructures, and middleware/networks. Much of the software described anticipates the use of future technologies envisioned over the span of next year to 10 years. These technologies, together with the software, will be the catalyst required to address extreme-scale data warehousing, scalability issues, and service-level requirements for a diverse set of well-known projects essential for predicting climate change. These tools, unlike the previous static analysis tools of the past, will support the co-existence of many users in a productive, shared virtual environment. This advanced technological world driven by extreme-scale computing and the data it generates will increase scientists’ productivity, exploit national and international relationships, and push research to new levels of understanding.

  2. Evaluation of Cloud-Resolving Model Intercomparison Simulations Using TWP-ICE Observations: Precipitation and Cloud Structure

    SciTech Connect

    Varble, Adam C.; Fridlind, Ann; Zipser, Ed; Ackerman, Andrew; Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre; Fan, Jiwen; Hill, Adrian; McFarlane, Sally A.; Pinty, Jean-Pierre; Shipway, Ben

    2011-06-24

    The Tropical Warm Pool - International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) provided high quality model forcing and observational datasets through which detailed model and observational intercomparisons could be performed. In this first of a two part study, precipitation and cloud structures within nine cloud-resolving model simulations are compared with scanning radar reflectivity and satellite infrared brightness temperature observations during an active monsoon period from 19 to 25 January 2006. Most simulations slightly overestimate volumetric convective rainfall. Overestimation of simulated convective area by 50% or more in several simulations is somewhat offset by underestimation of mean convective rain rates. Stratiform volumetric rainfall is underestimated by 13% to 53% despite overestimation of stratiform area by up to 65% because stratiform rain rates in every simulation are much lower than observed. Although simulations match the peaked convective radar reflectivity distribution at low levels, they do not reproduce the peaked distributions observed above the melting level. Simulated radar reflectivity aloft in convective regions is too high in most simulations. 29 In stratiform regions, there is a large spread in model results with none resembling 30 observed distributions. Above the melting level, observed radar reflectivity decreases 31 more gradually with height than simulated radar reflectivity. A few simulations produce 32 unrealistically uniform and cold 10.8-μm infrared brightness temperatures, but several 33 simulations produce distributions close to observed. Assumed ice particle size 34 distributions appear to play a larger role than ice water contents in producing incorrect 35 simulated radar reflectivity distributions aloft despite substantial differences in mean 36 graupel and snow water contents across models. 37

  3. Evaluation of Cloud-Resolving Model Intercomparison Simulations Using TWP-ICE Observations: Precipitation and Cloud Structure

    SciTech Connect

    Varble, Adam; Fridlind, Ann; Zipser, Edward J.; Ackerman, Andrew; Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre; Fan, Jiwen; Hill, Adrian; McFarlane, Sally A.; Pinty, Jean-Pierre; Shipway, Ben

    2011-10-04

    The Tropical Warm Pool – International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) provided high quality model forcing and observational datasets through which detailed model and observational intercomparisons could be performed. In this first of a two part study, precipitation and cloud structures within nine cloud-resolving model simulations are compared with scanning radar reflectivity and satellite infrared brightness temperature observations during an active monsoon period from 19 to 25 January 2006. Most simulations slightly overestimate volumetric convective rainfall. Overestimation of simulated convective area by 50% or more in several simulations is somewhat offset by underestimation of mean convective rain rates. Stratiform volumetric rainfall is underestimated by 13% to 53% despite overestimation of stratiform area by up to 65% because stratiform rain rates in every simulation are much lower than observed. Although simulations match the peaked convective radar reflectivity distribution at low levels, they do not reproduce the peaked distributions observed above the melting level. Simulated radar reflectivity aloft in convective regions is too high in most simulations. In stratiform regions, there is a large spread in model results with none resembling observed distributions. Above the melting level, observed radar reflectivity decreases more gradually with height than simulated radar reflectivity. A few simulations produce unrealistically uniform and cold 10.8-μm infrared brightness temperatures, but several simulations produce distributions close to observed. Assumed ice particle size distributions appear to play a larger role than ice water contents in producing incorrect simulated radar reflectivity distributions aloft despite substantial differences in mean graupel and snow water contents across models.

  4. Ozone intercomparisons from the Balloon Intercomparison Campaign

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robbins, D.; Evans, W.; Louisnard, N.; Pollitt, S.; Traub, W.; Waters, J.

    Intercomparisons of remote and in-situ techniques used to measure stratospheric ozone are made using results obtained on the Balloon Intercomparison Campaign of 1982 and 1983. Two in-situ and four remote instruments participated. These included ECC ozonesondes, a UV absorption photometer, and microwave emission, IR emission, and absorption spectrometers. Differences are generally less than 15 percent, and are within the quoted error bars. Flights which involved different sets of instruments were made on four separate days, and results are intercompared in plots of ozone density versus altitude. A careful assessment of errors was made for each instrument, and a plot of absolute errors versus altitude is given.

  5. Upper-soil moisture inter-comparison from SMOS's products and land surface models over the Iberian Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polcher, Jan; Barella-Ortiz, Anaïs; Aires, Filipe; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Gelati, Emiliano; Rodríguez-Fernández, Nemesio

    2015-04-01

    Soil moisture is a key state variable of the hydrological cycle. It conditions runoff, infiltration and evaporation over continental surfaces, and is key for forecasting droughts and floods. It plays thus an important role in surface-atmosphere interactions. Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) can be measured by in situ measurements, by satellite observations or modelled using land surface models. As a complementary tool, data assimilation can be used to combine both modelling and satellite observations. The work presented here is an inter-comparison of retrieved and modelled SSM data, for the 2010 - 2012 period, over the Iberian Peninsula. The region has been chosen because its vegetation cover is not very dense and includes strong contrasts in the rainfall regimes and thus a diversity of behaviours for SSM. Furthermore this semi-arid region is strongly dependent on a good management of its water resources. Satellite observations correspond to the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) retrievals: the L2 product from an optimal interpolation retrieval, and 3 other products using Neural Network retrievals with different input information: SMOS time indexes, purely SMOS data, or addition of the European Advanced Scaterometer (ASCAT) backscattering, and the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) surface temperature information. The modelled soil moistures have been taken from the ORCHIDEE (ORganising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic EcosystEms) and the HTESSEL (Hydrology-Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land) land surface models. Both models are forced with the same atmospheric conditions (as part of the Earth2Observe FP7 project) over the period but they represent the surface soil moisture with very different degrees of complexity. ORCHIDEE has 5 levels in the top 5 centimetres of soil while in HTESSEL this variable is part of the top soil moisture level. The two types of SMOS retrievals are compared to the model outputs in their spatial and temporal

  6. The Impact of Abrupt Suspension of Solar Radiation Management (Termination Effect) in Experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, Andrew; Haywood, J.; Alterskjaer, Kari; Boucher, Olivier; Cole, Jason N.; Curry, Charles L.; Irvine, Peter; Ji, Duoying; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Kristjansson, Jon E.; Moore, John; Niemeier, Ulrike; Robock, Alan; Schmidt, Hauke; Singh, Balwinder; Tilmes, S.; Watanabe, Shingo; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2013-09-11

    We have examined changes in climate which result from the sudden termination of geoengineering after 50 years of offsetting a 1% per annum increase in CO2 concentra- tions as simulated by 11 different climate models in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree on a rapid rate of global-mean warming following termination, accompanied by increases in global-mean precipitation rate and in plant net primary productivity, and decreases in sea-ice cover. While there is a considerable degree of consensus for the geographical distribution of warming, there is much less of an agreement regarding the patterns of change in the other quantities.

  7. The ISA-MIP Historical Eruption SO2 Emissions Assessment (HErSEA): an intercomparison for interactive stratospheric aerosol models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mann, Graham; Dhomse, Sandip; Sheng, Jianxiong; Mills, Mike

    2016-04-01

    Major historical volcanic eruptions have injected huge amounts of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere with observations showing an enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer for several years (ASAP, 2006). Such long-lasting increases in stratospheric aerosol loading cool the Earth's surface by scattering incoming solar radiation and warm the stratosphere via absorption of near infra-red solar and long-wave terrestrial radiation with complex effects on climate (e.g. Robock, 2000). Two recent modelling studies of Mount Pinatubo (Dhomse et al., 2014; Sheng et al. 2015) have highlighted that observations suggest the sulphur loading of the volcanically enhanced stratospheric aerosol may have been considerably lower than suggested by measurements of the injected SO2. This poster describes a new model intercomparison activity "ISA-MIP" for interactive stratospheric aerosol models within the framework of the SPARC initiative on Stratospheric Sulphur and its Role in Climate (SSiRC). The new "Historical Eruption SO2 emissions Assessment" (HErSEA) will intercompare model simulations of the three largest volcanic perturbations to the stratosphere in the last 50 years, 1963 Mt Agung, 1982 El Chichon and 1991 Mt Pinatubo. The aim is to assess how effectively the emitted SO2 translates into perturbations to stratospheric aerosol properties and simulated radiative forcings in different composition-climate models with interactive stratospheric aerosol (ISA). Each modelling group will run a mini-ensemble of transient AMIP-type runs for the 3 eruptions with a control no-eruption run followed by upper and lower bound injection amount estimates and 3 different injection height settings for two shallow (e.g. 19-21km amd 23-25km) and one deep (e.g. 19-25km) injection. First order analysis will intercompare stratospheric aerosol metrics such as 2D-monthly AOD(550nm, 1020nm) and timeseries of tropical and NH/SH mid-visible extinction at three different models levels (15, 20 and 25km

  8. Experimental design for three interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects: MISMIP v. 3 (MISMIP +), ISOMIP v. 2 (ISOMIP +) and MISOMIP v. 1 (MISOMIP1)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asay-Davis, Xylar S.; Cornford, Stephen L.; Durand, Gaël; Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.; Gladstone, Rupert M.; Hilmar Gudmundsson, G.; Hattermann, Tore; Holland, David M.; Holland, Denise; Holland, Paul R.; Martin, Daniel F.; Mathiot, Pierre; Pattyn, Frank; Seroussi, Hélène

    2016-07-01

    Coupled ice sheet-ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of marine ice sheets and tidewater glaciers, from process studies to future projections of ice mass loss and sea level rise. The Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP) is a community effort aimed at designing and coordinating a series of model intercomparison projects (MIPs) for model evaluation in idealized setups, model verification based on observations, and future projections for key regions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Here we describe computational experiments constituting three interrelated MIPs for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities. These consist of ice sheet experiments under the Marine Ice Sheet MIP third phase (MISMIP+), ocean experiments under the Ice Shelf-Ocean MIP second phase (ISOMIP+) and coupled ice sheet-ocean experiments under the MISOMIP first phase (MISOMIP1). All three MIPs use a shared domain with idealized bedrock topography and forcing, allowing the coupled simulations (MISOMIP1) to be compared directly to the individual component simulations (MISMIP+ and ISOMIP+). The experiments, which have qualitative similarities to Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf and the adjacent region of the Amundsen Sea, are designed to explore the effects of changes in ocean conditions, specifically the temperature at depth, on basal melting and ice dynamics. In future work, differences between model results will form the basis for the evaluation of the participating models.

  9. Analysis of UK and European NOx and VOC emission scenarios in the Defra model intercomparison exercise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Derwent, Richard; Beevers, Sean; Chemel, Charles; Cooke, Sally; Francis, Xavier; Fraser, Andrea; Heal, Mathew R.; Kitwiroon, Nutthida; Lingard, Justin; Redington, Alison; Sokhi, Ranjeet; Vieno, Massimo

    2014-09-01

    Simple emission scenarios have been implemented in eight United Kingdom air quality models with the aim of assessing how these models compared when addressing whether photochemical ozone formation in southern England was NOx- or VOC-sensitive and whether ozone precursor sources in the UK or in the Rest of Europe (RoE) were the most important during July 2006. The suite of models included three Eulerian-grid models (three implementations of one of these models), a Lagrangian atmospheric dispersion model and two moving box air parcel models. The assignments as to NOx- or VOC-sensitive and to UK- versus RoE-dominant, turned out to be highly variable and often contradictory between the individual models. However, when the assignments were filtered by model performance on each day, many of the contradictions could be eliminated. Nevertheless, no one model was found to be the 'best' model on all days, indicating that no single air quality model could currently be relied upon to inform policymakers robustly in terms of NOx- versus VOC-sensitivity and UK- versus RoE-dominance on each day. It is important to maintain a diversity in model approaches.

  10. Stratospheric Ozone Response in Experiments G3 and G4 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pitari, Giovanni; Aquila, Valentina; Kravitz, Ben; Watanabe, Shingo; Tilmes, Simone; Mancini, Eva; DeLuca, Natalia; DiGenova, Glauco

    2013-01-01

    Geoengineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosols has been proposed as a means of temporarily cooling the planet, alleviating some of the side effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, one of the known side effects of stratospheric injections of sulfate aerosols is a decrease in stratospheric ozone. Here we show results from two general circulation models and two coupled chemistry climate models that have simulated stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering as part of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). Changes in photolysis rates and upwelling of ozone-poor air in the tropics reduce stratospheric ozone, suppression of the NOx cycle increases stratospheric ozone, and an increase in available surfaces for heterogeneous chemistry modulates reductions in ozone. On average, the models show a factor 20-40 increase of the sulfate aerosol surface area density (SAD) at 50 hPa in the tropics with respect to unperturbed background conditions and a factor 3-10 increase at mid-high latitudes. The net effect for a tropical injection rate of 5 Tg SO2 per year is a decrease in globally averaged ozone by 1.1-2.1 DU in the years 2040-2050 for three models which include heterogeneous chemistry on the sulfate aerosol surfaces. GISS-E2-R, a fully coupled general circulation model, performed simulations with no heterogeneous chemistry and a smaller aerosol size; it showed a decrease in ozone by 9.7 DU. After the year 2050, suppression of the NOx cycle becomes more important than destruction of ozone by ClOx, causing an increase in total stratospheric ozone. Contribution of ozone changes in this experiment to radiative forcing is 0.23 W m-2 in GISS-E2-R and less than 0.1 W m-2 in the other three models. Polar ozone depletion, due to enhanced formation of both sulfate aerosol SAD and polar stratospheric clouds, results in an average 5 percent increase in calculated surface UV-B.

  11. Quality assurance of weather data for agricultural system model input

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    It is well known that crop production and hydrologic variation on watersheds is weather related. Rarely, however, is meteorological data quality checks reported for agricultural systems model research. We present quality assurance procedures for agricultural system model weather data input. Problems...

  12. AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF MANAGEMENT (ARM) MODEL VERSION II: REFINEMENT AND TESTING

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Agricultural Runoff Management (ARM) Model has been refined and tested on small agricultural watersheds in Georgia and Michigan. The ARM Model simulates the hydrologic, sediment production, pesticide, and nutrient processes on the land surface and in the soil profile that det...

  13. The Significance of Quality Assurance within Model Intercomparison Projects at the World Data Centre for Climate (WDCC)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toussaint, F.; Hoeck, H.; Stockhause, M.; Lautenschlager, M.

    2014-12-01

    The classical goals of a quality assessment system in the data life cycle are (1) to encourage data creators to improve their quality assessment procedures to reach the next quality level and (2) enable data consumers to decide, whether a dataset has a quality that is sufficient for usage in the target application, i.e. to appraise the data usability for their own purpose.As the data volumes of projects and the interdisciplinarity of data usage grow, the need for homogeneous structure and standardised notation of data and metadata increases. This third aspect is especially valid for the data repositories, as they manage data through machine agents. So checks for homogeneity and consistency in early parts of the workflow become essential to cope with today's data volumes.Selected parts of the workflow in the model intercomparison project CMIP5 and the archival of the data for the interdiscipliary user community of the IPCC-DDC AR5 and the associated quality checks are reviewed. We compare data and metadata checks and relate different types of checks to their positions in the data life cycle.The project's data citation approach is included in the discussion, with focus on temporal aspects of the time necessary to comply with the project's requirements for formal data citations and the demand for the availability of such data citations.In order to make different quality assessments of projects comparable, WDCC developed a generic Quality Assessment System. Based on the self-assessment approach of a maturity matrix, an objective and uniform quality level system for all data at WDCC is derived which consists of five maturity quality levels.

  14. Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevenson, D. S.; Young, P. J.; Naik, V.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Shindell, D. T.; Voulgarakis, A.; Skeie, R. B.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Myhre, G.; Berntsen, T. K.; Folberth, G. A.; Rumbold, S. T.; Collins, W. J.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Doherty, R. M.; Zeng, G.; van Noije, T. P. C.; Strunk, A.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Plummer, D. A.; Strode, S. A.; Horowitz, L.; Lee, Y. H.; Szopa, S.; Sudo, K.; Nagashima, T.; Josse, B.; Cionni, I.; Righi, M.; Eyring, V.; Conley, A.; Bowman, K. W.; Wild, O.; Archibald, A.

    2013-03-01

    Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m-2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (±1 standard deviation) in RFs of ±17%. Three different radiation schemes were used - we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of ±10%. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of ±3%. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of ±30% for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44±12%), nitrogen oxides (31 ± 9%), carbon monoxide (15 ± 3%) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9 ± 2%); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42 mW m-2 DU-1, a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mW m-2; relative to 1750) for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030), and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100). Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the

  15. Tropospheric Ozone Changes, Radiative Forcing and Attribution to Emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stevenson, D.S.; Young, P.J.; Naik, V.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Shindell, D. T.; Voulgarakis, A.; Skeie, R. B.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Myhre, G.; Berntsen, T. K.; Folberth, G. A.; Rumbold, S. T.; Collins, W. J.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Doherty, R. M.; Zeng, G.; vanNoije, T. P. C.; Strunk, A.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Plummer, D. A.; Strode, S. A.; Horowitz, L.; Lee, Y. H.; Szopa, S.; Sudo, K.; Nagashima, T.; Josse, B.; Cionni, I.; Righi, M.; Eyring, V.; Conley, A.; Bowman, K. W.; Wild, O.; Archibald, A.

    2013-01-01

    Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m-2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (+/-1 standard deviation) in RFs of +/-17%. Three different radiation schemes were used - we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of +/-10 percent. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of +/-3 percent. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of +/-30 percent for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44+/-12 percent), nitrogen oxides (31 +/- 9 percent), carbon monoxide (15 +/- 3 percent) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9 +/- 2 percent); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42 mW m(-2) DU(-1), a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mW m(-2); relative to 1750) for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030), and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100). Models show some

  16. Climate Forcing Datasets for Agricultural Modeling: Merged Products for Gap-Filling and Historical Climate Series Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Goldberg, Richard; Chryssanthacopoulos, James

    2014-01-01

    The AgMERRA and AgCFSR climate forcing datasets provide daily, high-resolution, continuous, meteorological series over the 1980-2010 period designed for applications examining the agricultural impacts of climate variability and climate change. These datasets combine daily resolution data from retrospective analyses (the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, CFSR) with in situ and remotely-sensed observational datasets for temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, leading to substantial reductions in bias in comparison to a network of 2324 agricultural-region stations from the Hadley Integrated Surface Dataset (HadISD). Results compare favorably against the original reanalyses as well as the leading climate forcing datasets (Princeton, WFD, WFD-EI, and GRASP), and AgMERRA distinguishes itself with substantially improved representation of daily precipitation distributions and extreme events owing to its use of the MERRA-Land dataset. These datasets also peg relative humidity to the maximum temperature time of day, allowing for more accurate representation of the diurnal cycle of near-surface moisture in agricultural models. AgMERRA and AgCFSR enable a number of ongoing investigations in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and related research networks, and may be used to fill gaps in historical observations as well as a basis for the generation of future climate scenarios.

  17. Inter-comparison of isotropic and anisotropic sea ice rheology in a fully coupled model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, A.; Cassano, J. J.; Maslowski, W.; Osinski, R.; Seefeldt, M. W.; Hughes, M.; Duvivier, A.; Nijssen, B.; Hamman, J.; Hutchings, J. K.; Hunke, E. C.

    2015-12-01

    We present the sea ice climate of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), using a suite of new physics available in the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE5). RASM is a high-resolution fully coupled pan-Arctic model that also includes the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land model. The model domain extends from ~45˚N to the North Pole and is configured to run at ~9km resolution for the ice and ocean components, coupled to 50km resolution atmosphere and land models. The baseline sea ice model configuration includes mushy-layer sea ice thermodynamics and level-ice melt ponds. Using this configuration, we compare the use of isotropic and anisotropic sea ice mechanics, and evaluate model performance using these two variants against observations including Arctic buoy drift and deformation, satellite-derived drift and deformation, and sea ice volume estimates from ICESat. We find that the isotropic rheology better approximates spatial patterns of thickness observed across the Arctic, but that both rheologies closely approximate scaling laws observed in the pack using buoys and RGPS data. A fundamental component of both ice mechanics variants, the so called Elastic-Viscous-Plastic (EVP) and Anisotropic-Elastic-Plastic (EAP), is that they are highly sensitive to the timestep used for elastic sub-cycling in an inertial-resolving coupled framework, and this has a significant affect on surface fluxes in the fully coupled framework.

  18. Sulfur deposition simulations over China, Japan, and Korea: a model intercomparison study for abating sulfur emission.

    PubMed

    Kim, Cheol-Hee; Chang, Lim-Seok; Meng, Fan; Kajino, Mizuo; Ueda, Hiromasa; Zhang, Yuanhang; Son, Hye-Young; Lee, Jong-Jae; He, Youjiang; Xu, Jun; Sato, Keiichi; Sakurai, Tatsuya; Han, Zhiwei; Duan, Lei; Kim, Jeong-Soo; Lee, Suk-Jo; Song, Chang-Keun; Ban, Soo-Jin; Shim, Shang-Gyoo; Sunwoo, Young; Lee, Tae-Young

    2012-11-01

    In response to increasing trends in sulfur deposition in Northeast Asia, three countries in the region (China, Japan, and Korea) agreed to devise abatement strategies. The concepts of critical loads and source-receptor (S-R) relationships provide guidance for formulating such strategies. Based on the Long-range Transboundary Air Pollutants in Northeast Asia (LTP) project, this study analyzes sulfur deposition data in order to optimize acidic loads over the three countries. The three groups involved in this study carried out a full year (2002) of sulfur deposition modeling over the geographic region spanning the three countries, using three air quality models: MM5-CMAQ, MM5-RAQM, and RAMS-CADM, employed by Chinese, Japanese, and Korean modeling groups, respectively. Each model employed its own meteorological numerical model and model parameters. Only the emission rates for SO(2) and NO(x) obtained from the LTP project were the common parameter used in the three models. Three models revealed some bias from dry to wet deposition, particularly the latter because of the bias in annual precipitation. This finding points to the need for further sensitivity tests of the wet removal rates in association with underlying cloud-precipitation physics and parameterizations. Despite this bias, the annual total (dry plus wet) sulfur deposition predicted by the models were surprisingly very similar. The ensemble average annual total deposition was 7,203.6 ± 370 kt S with a minimal mean fractional error (MFE) of 8.95 ± 5.24 % and a pattern correlation (PC) of 0.89-0.93 between the models. This exercise revealed that despite rather poor error scores in comparison with observations, these consistent total deposition values across the three models, based on LTP group's input data assumptions, suggest a plausible S-R relationship that can be applied to the next task of designing cost-effective emission abatement strategies. PMID:22869502

  19. A world ocean model for greenhouse sensitivity studies: Resolution intercomparison and the role of diagnostic forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Washington, W.M.; Meehl, G.A.; VerPlank, L.; Bettge, T.W.

    1994-05-01

    This article documents the simulation capability of this improved 1{degrees} global ocean model, shows improvements over our earlier 5{degrees} version, and compares it to features simulated with a 0.5{degrees} model. These experiments use a model spin-up methodology whereby the ocean model can subsequently be coupled to an atmospheric model and used for order 100-year coupled model integrations. With present-day computers, 1{degrees} is a reasonable compromise in resolution that allows for century-long coupled experiments. The 1{degrees} ocean model is derived from a 0.5{degrees}-resolution model developed for studies of the global eddy-resolving world ocean circulation. The 0.5{degrees} bottom topography and continental outlines have been altered to be compatible with the 1{degrees} resolution and the Arctic Ocean has been added. Results show a dramatic intensification of the meridional overturning circulation (order of magnitude) with perpetual winter surface temperature forcing in the North Atlantic and strong intensification (factor of three) with perpetual early winter temperatures in that region. These effects are felt throughout the Atlantic (particularly an intensified and northward-shifted Gulf Stream outflow). In the Pacific, the temperature gradient strengthens in the thermocline, thus helping counter the systematic error of a thermocline that is too diffuse. 41 refs., 13 figs.

  20. Intercomparison of the community multiscale air quality model and CALGRID using process analysis.

    PubMed

    O'Neill, Susan M; Lamb, Brian K

    2005-08-01

    This study was designed to examine the similarities and differences between two advanced photochemical air quality modeling systems: EPA Models-3/CMAQ and CALGRID/CALMET. Both modeling systems were applied to an ozone episode that occurred along the I-5 urban corridor in western Washington and Oregon during July 11-14, 1996. Both models employed the same modeling domain and used the same detailed gridded emission inventory. The CMAQ model was run using both the CB-IV and RADM2 chemical mechanisms, while CALGRID was used with the SAPRC-97 chemical mechanism. Outputfrom the Mesoscale Meteorological Model (MM5) employed with observational nudging was used in both models. The two modeling systems, representing three chemical mechanisms and two sets of meteorological inputs, were evaluated in terms of statistical performance measures for both 1- and 8-h average observed ozone concentrations. The results showed that the different versions of the systems were more similar than different, and all versions performed well in the Portland region and downwind of Seattle but performed poorly in the more rural region north of Seattle. Improving the meteorological input into the CALGRID/CALMET system with planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameters from the Models-3/CMAQ meteorology preprocessor (MCIP) improved the performance of the CALGRID/CALMET system. The 8-h ensemble case was often the best performer of all the cases indicating that the models perform better over longer analysis periods. The 1-h ensemble case, derived from all runs, was not necessarily an improvement over the five individual cases, but the standard deviation about the mean provided a measure of overall modeling uncertainty. Process analysis was applied to examine the contribution of the individual processes to the species conservation equation. The process analysis results indicated that the two modeling systems arrive at similar solutions by very different means. Transport rates are faster and exhibit

  1. Forecasting the North African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huneeus, N.; Basart, S.; Fiedler, S.; Morcrette, J.-J.; Benedetti, A.; Mulcahy, J.; Terradellas, E.; Pérez García-Pando, C.; Pejanovic, G.; Nickovic, S.; Arsenovic, P.; Schulz, M.; Cuevas, E.; Baldasano, J. M.; Pey, J.; Remy, S.; Cvetkovic, B.

    2015-10-01

    In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting Western and Northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead-times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead-times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead-times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards Northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.

  2. Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Huneeus, N.; Basart, S.; Fiedler, S.; Morcrette, J. -J.; Benedetti, A.; Mulcahy, J.; Terradellas, E.; Garcia-Pando, C. Perez; Pejanovic, G.; Nickovic, S.; et al

    2016-04-21

    In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distributionmore » was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. In this paper, our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.« less

  3. Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huneeus, N.; Basart, S.; Fiedler, S.; Morcrette, J.-J.; Benedetti, A.; Mulcahy, J.; Terradellas, E.; Pérez García-Pando, C.; Pejanovic, G.; Nickovic, S.; Arsenovic, P.; Schulz, M.; Cuevas, E.; Baldasano, J. M.; Pey, J.; Remy, S.; Cvetkovic, B.

    2016-04-01

    In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.

  4. Forecasting the Northern African Dust Outbreak Towards Europe in April 2011: A Model Intercomparison

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huneeus, N.; Basart, S.; Fiedler, S.; Morcrette, J.-J.; Benedetti, A.; Mulcahy, J.; Terradellas, E.; Pérez García-Pando, C.; Pejanovic, G.; Nickovic, S.

    2016-01-01

    In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 hours using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.

  5. OAK FOREST CARBON AND WATER SIMULATIONS: MODEL INTERCOMPARISONS AND EVALUATIONS AGAINST INDEPENDENT DATA

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, Paul J; Amthor, Jeffrey S; Wullschleger, Stan D; Wilson, K.; Grant, Robert F.; Hartley, Anne; Hui, D.; HuntJr., E. Raymond; Johnson, Dale W.; Kimball, John S.; King, Anthony Wayne; Luo, Yiqi; McNulty, Steven G.; Sun, G.; Thornton, Peter; Wang, S.; Williams, M.; Baldocchi, D. D.; Cushman, Robert Michael

    2004-01-01

    Models represent our primary method for integration of small-scale, processlevel phenomena into a comprehensive description of forest-stand or ecosystem function. They also represent a key method for testing hypotheses about the response of forest ecosystems to multiple changing environmental conditions. This paper describes the evaluation of 13 stand-level models varying in their spatial, mechanistic, and temporal complexity for their ability to capture intra- and interannual components of the water and carbon cycle for an upland, oak-dominated forest of eastern Tennessee. Comparisons between model simulations and observations were conducted for hourly, daily, and annual time steps. Data for the comparisons were obtained from a wide range of methods including: eddy covariance, sapflow, chamber-based soil respiration, biometric estimates of stand-level net primary production and growth, and soil water content by time or frequency domain reflectometry. Response surfaces of carbon and water flux as a function of environmental drivers, and a variety of goodness-of-fit statistics (bias, absolute bias, and model efficiency) were used to judge model performance. A single model did not consistently perform the best at all time steps or for all variables considered. Intermodel comparisons showed good agreement for water cycle fluxes, but considerable disagreement among models for predicted carbon fluxes. The mean of all model outputs, however, was nearly always the best fit to the observations. Not surprisingly, models missing key forest components or processes, such as roots or modeled soil water content, were unable to provide accurate predictions of ecosystem responses to short-term drought phenomenon. Nevertheless, an inability to correctly capture short-term physiological processes under drought was not necessarily an indicator of poor annual water and carbon budget simulations. This is possible because droughts in the subject ecosystem were of short duration and

  6. Intercomparison and Evaluation of Global Aerosol Microphysical Properties Among Aerocom Models of a Range of Complexity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mann, G. W.; Carslaw, K. S.; Reddington, C. L.; Pringle, K. J.; Schulz, M.; Asmi, A.; Spracklen, D. V.; Ridley, D. A.; Woodhouse, M. T.; Lee, L. A.; Zhang, K.; Ghan, S. J.; Easter, R. C.; Liu, X.; Stier, P.; Lee, Y. H; Adams, P. J.; Tost, H.; Lelieveld, J.; Bauer, S. E.; Tsigaridis, K.; van Noije, T. P. C.; Strunk, A.; Vignati, E.; Bellouin, N.

    2014-01-01

    Many of the next generation of global climate models will include aerosol schemes which explicitly simulate the microphysical processes that determine the particle size distribution. These models enable aerosol optical properties and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations to be determined by fundamental aerosol processes, which should lead to a more physically based simulation of aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcings. This study examines the global variation in particle size distribution simulated by 12 global aerosol microphysics models to quantify model diversity and to identify any common biases against observations. Evaluation against size distribution measurements from a new European network of aerosol supersites shows that the mean model agrees quite well with the observations at many sites on the annual mean, but there are some seasonal biases common to many sites. In particular, at many of these European sites, the accumulation mode number concentration is biased low during winter and Aitken mode concentrations tend to be overestimated in winter and underestimated in summer. At high northern latitudes, the models strongly underpredict Aitken and accumulation particle concentrations compared to the measurements, consistent with previous studies that have highlighted the poor performance of global aerosol models in the Arctic. In the marine boundary layer, the models capture the observed meridional variation in the size distribution, which is dominated by the Aitken mode at high latitudes, with an increasing concentration of accumulation particles with decreasing latitude. Considering vertical profiles, the models reproduce the observed peak in total particle concentrations in the upper troposphere due to new particle formation, although modelled peak concentrations tend to be biased high over Europe. Overall, the multimodel- mean data set simulates the global variation of the particle size distribution with a good degree of skill, suggesting

  7. Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol-climate model intercomparison studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, P.-L.; Rasch, P. J.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.

    2014-08-01

    Nudging as an assimilation technique has seen increased use in recent years in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on long-wave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations, and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. Results from both CAM5 and a second aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 also indicate that compared to the wind-and-temperature nudging, constraining only winds leads to better agreement with the free-running model in terms of the estimated shortwave cloud forcing and the simulated convective activities. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a

  8. Intercomparisons between passive and active microwave remote sensing, and hydrological modeling for soil moisture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wood, E. F.; Lin, D.-S.; Mancini, M.; Thongs, D.; Troch, P. A.; Jackson, T. J.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Engman, E. T.

    1993-01-01

    Soil moisture estimations from a distributed hydrological model and two microwave sensors were compared with ground measurements collected during the MAC-HYDRO'90 experiment. The comparison was done with the purpose of evaluating the performance of the hydrological model and examining the limitations of remote sensing techniques used in soil moisture estimation. An image integration technique was used to integrate and analyze rainfall, soil properties, land cover, topography, and remote sensing imagery. Results indicate that the hydrological model and microwave sensors successfully picked up temporal variations of soil moisture and that the spatial soil moisture pattern may be remotely sensed with reasonable accuracy using existing algorithms.

  9. Anisn-Dort Neutron-Gamma Flux Intercomparison Exercise for a Simple Testing Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boehmer, B.; Konheiser, J.; Borodkin, G.; Brodkin, E.; Egorov, A.; Kozhevnikov, A.; Zaritsky, S.; Manturov, G.; Voloschenko, A.

    2003-06-01

    The ability of transport codes ANISN, DORT, ROZ-6, MCNP and TRAMO, as well as nuclear data libraries BUGLE-96, ABBN-93, VITAMIN-B6 and ENDF/B-6 to deliver consistent gamma and neutron flux results was tested in the calculation of a one-dimensional cylindrical model consisting of a homogeneous core and an outer zone with a single material. Model variants with H2O, Fe, Cr and Ni in the outer zones were investigated. The results are compared with MCNP-ENDF/B-6 results. Discrepancies are discussed. The specified test model is proposed as a computational benchmark for testing calculation codes and data libraries.

  10. North American Carbon Project (NACP) Regional Interim Synthesis: Terrestrial Biospheric Model Intercomparison

    SciTech Connect

    Huntzinger, Deborah; Post, W. M.; Wei, Yaxing; Michalak, A. M.; West, Tristram O.; Jacobson, Andy; Baker, Ian; Chen, Jing Ming; Davis, K. J.; Hayes, D. J.; Hoffman, F. M.; Jain, Atul K.; Liu, S.; McGuire, A. David; Neilson, R. P.; Potter, Christopher; Poulter, Benjamin; Price, David; Raczka, B. M.; Tian, Hanqin; Thornton, P.; Tomelleri, E.; Viovy, N.; Xiao, J.; Yuan, Wenping; Zeng, Ning; Zhao, M.; Cook, R. B.

    2012-05-10

    Understanding of carbon exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere can be improved through direct observations and experiments, as well as through modeling activities. Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) have become an integral tool for extrapolating local observations and understanding to much larger terrestrial regions. Although models vary in their specific goals and approaches, their central role within carbon cycle science is to provide a better understanding of the mechanisms currently controlling carbon exchange. Recently, the North American Carbon Program (NACP) organized several interim-synthesis activities to evaluate and inter-compare models and observations at local to continental scales for the years 2000 to 2005. Here, we compare the results from the TBMs collected as part of the regional and continental interim-synthesis (RCIS) activities. The primary objective of this work is to synthesize and compare the 19 participating TBMs to assess current understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle in North America.

  11. A world ocean model for greenhouse sensitivity studies: resolution intercomparison and the role of diagnostic forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Washington, Warren M.; Meehl, Gerald A.; Verplank, Lynda; Bettge, Thomas W.

    1994-05-01

    We have developed an improved version of a world ocean model with the intention of coupling to an atmospheric model. This article documents the simulation capability of this 1° global ocean model, shows improvements over our earlier 5° version, and compares it to features simulated with a 0.5° model. These experiments use a model spin-up methodology whereby the ocean model can subsequently be coupled to an atmospheric model and used for order 100-year coupled model integrations. With present-day computers, 1° is a reasonable compromise in resolution that allows for century-long coupled experiments. The 1° ocean model is derived from a 0.5°-resolution model developed by A. Semtner (Naval Postgraduate School) and R. Chervin (National Center for Atmospheric Research) for studies of the global eddy-resolving world ocean circulation. The 0.5° bottom topography and continental outlines have been altered to be compatible with the 1° resolution, and the Arctic Ocean has been added. We describe the ocean simulation characteristics of the 1° version and compare the result of weakly constraining (three-year time scale) the three-dimensional temperature and salinity fields to the observations below the thermocline (710 m) with the model forced only at the top of the ocean by observed annual mean wind stress, temperature, and salinity. The 1° simulations indicate that major ocean circulation patterns are greatly improved compared to the 5° version and are qualitatively reproduced in comparison to the 0.5° version. Using the annual mean top forcing alone in a 100-year simulation with the 1° version preserves the general features of the major observed temperature and salinity structure with most climate drift occurring mainly beneath the thermocline in the first 50 75 years. Because the thermohaline circulation in the 1° version is relatively weak with annual mean forcing, we demonstrate the importance of the seasonal cycle by performing two sensitivity experiments

  12. Intercomparison of Models Representing Direct Shortwave Radiative Forcing by Sulfate Aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boucher, O.; Schwartz, S. E.; Ackerman, T. P.; Anderson, T. L.; Bergstrom, B.; Bonnel, B.; Dahlback, A.; Fouquart, Y.; Chylek, P.; Fu, Q.; Halthore, R. N.; Haywood, J. M.; Iversen, T.; Kato, S.; Kinne, S.; Kirkevag, A.; Knapp, K. R.; Lacis, A.; Laszlo, I.; Mishchenko, M. I.

    2000-01-01

    The importance of aerosols as agents of climate change has recently been highlighted. However, the magnitude of aerosol forcing by scattering of shortwave radiation (direct forcing) is still very uncertain even for the relatively well characterized sulfate aerosol. A potential source of uncertainty is in the model representation of aerosol optical properties and aerosol influences on radiative transfer in the atmosphere. Although radiative transfer methods and codes have been compared in the past, these comparisons have not focused on aerosol forcing (change in net radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere). Here we report results of a project involving 12 groups using 15 models to examine radiative forcing by sulfate aerosol for a wide range of values of particle radius, aerosol optical depth, surface albedo, and solar zenith angle. Among the models that were employed were high and low spectral resolution models incorporating a variety of radiative transfer approximations as well as a line-by-line model. The normalized forcings (forcing per sulfate column burden) obtained with the several radiative transfer models were examined, and the discrepancies were characterized. All models simulate forcings of comparable amplitude and exhibit a similar dependence on input parameters. As expected for a non-light-absorbing aerosol, forcings were negative (cooling influence) except at high surface albedo combined with small solar zenith angle. The relative standard deviation of the zenith-angle-averaged normalized broadband forcing for 15 models-was 8% for particle radius near the maximum in this forcing (approx. 0.2 microns) and at low surface albedo. Somewhat greater model-to-model discrepancies were exhibited at specific solar zenith angles. Still greater discrepancies were exhibited at small particle radii and much greater discrepancies were exhibited at high surface albedos, at which the forcing changes sign; in these situations, however, the normalized forcing is

  13. From Past to future: the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project's contribution to CMIP6

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kageyama, Masa; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy; Haywood, Alan; Jungclaus, Johann; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako

    2016-04-01

    Since the 1990s, PMIP has developed with the following objectives: 1/to evaluate the ability of climate models used for climate prediction in simulating well-documented past climates outside the range of present and recent climate variability; 2/to understand the mechanisms of these climate changes, in particular the role of the different climate feedbacks. To achieve these goals, PMIP has actively fostered paleo-data syntheses, multi-model analyses, including analyses of relationships between model results from past and future simulations, and model-data comparisons. For CMIP6, PMIP will focus on five past periods: - the Last Millennium (850 CE - present), to analyse natural climate variability on multidecadal or longer time-scales - the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago, to compare model runs with paleodata for a period of warmer climate in the Northern Hemisphere, with an enhanced hydrological cycle - the Last Glacial Maximum, 21000 years ago, to evaluate the ability of climate models to represent a cold climate extreme and examine whether paleoinformation about this period can help and constrain climate sensitivity - the Last InterGlacial (~127,000 year ago), which provides a benchmark for a period of high sea-level stand - the mid-Pliocene warm period (~3.2 million years ago), which allows for the evaluation of the model's long-term response to a CO2 level analogous to the modern one. This poster will present the rationale of these "PMIP4-CMIP6" experiments. Participants are invited to come and discuss about the experimental set-up and the model output to be distributed via CMIP6. For more information and discussion of the PMIP4-CMIP6 experimental design, please visit: https://wiki.lsce.ipsl.fr/pmip3/doku.php/pmip3:cmip6:design:index

  14. Placing Bounds on Extreme Temperature Response of Maize to Improve Crop Model Intercomparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, C.; Babcock, B.; Peng, Y.; Gassman, P. W.; Campbell, T.

    2015-12-01

    We propose the development of community-based estimates for bounds on maize sensitivity to extreme temperature. We use model-based, observation-driven soil moisture climatology in a high maize production region in the United States to develop bounds on high temperature sensitivity through its dependence on available water. For the portion of the region with relatively long growing season, yield reduction per degree-C is 10% for high water availability and 32.5% for low water availability. Where the growing season is shorter, yield reduction per degree-C is 6% for high water availability and 27% for low water availability. High temperature sensitivity is indeterminate where extreme temperature yield effect does not yet exceed excessive water yield effect. We suggest new soil moisture climatology from reanalysis datasets could be used to develop community-based estimates of high temperature sensitivity that would significantly improve the accuracy of maize temperature sensitivity bounds, their regional variability, and their importance relative to other weather yield shocks. A community-based estimate would substantially improve evaluation of crop system simulation models and provide baseline information for evaluation of adaptation options. For instance, since process models are needed for evaluation of crop system adaptation response under climate projections, a community-developed estimate would provide a clear target for process model evaluation. Furthermore, the range of extreme temperature sensitivity from empirical models would provide a lower bound on variability that could be achieved from process models. If the process models achieved this bound, it would mean the uncertainty among their simulations would be primarily from observational limitations than differences in model response. While we demonstrate the potential in the context of maize, the concept could be implemented within any crop production system.

  15. Low-cost solar array project: Four absolute cavity radiometer (pyrheliometer) intercomparisons at New River, Arizona: Radiometer standards

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Estey, R. S.; Seaman, C. H.

    1981-01-01

    Four detailed intercomparisons were made for a number of models of cavity-type self-calibrating radiometers (pyrheliometers). Each intercomparison consisted of simultaneous readings of pyrheliometers at 30-second intervals in runs of 10 minutes, with at least 15 runs per intercomparison. Twenty-seven instruments were in at least one intercomparison, and five were in all four. Summarized results and all raw data are provided from the intercomparisons.

  16. Evaluation and intercomparison of three-dimensional global marine carbon cycle models

    SciTech Connect

    Caldeira, K., LLNL

    1998-07-01

    The addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere from fossil fuel burning and deforestation has profound implications for the future of the earth`s climate and hence for humankind itself. Society is looking toward the community of environmental scientists to predict the consequences of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide so that sound input can be provided to economists, environmental engineers, and, ultimately, policy makers. Environmental scientists have responded to this challenge through the creation of several ambitious, highly-coordinated programs, each focused on a different aspect of the climate system. Recognizing that numerical models, be they relatively simple statistical-empirical models or highly complex process-oriented models, are the only means for predicting the future of the climate system, all of these programs include the development of accurate, predictive models as a central goal. The Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) is one such program, and was built on the well-founded premise that biological, chemical and physical oceanographic processes have a profound influence on the C0{sub 2} content of the atmosphere. The, cap-stone, phase of JGOFS, the Synthesis and Modeling Project (SMP), is charged with the development of models that can be used in the prediction of future air-sea partitioning of C0{sub 2}. JGOFS, particularly the SMP phase, has a number of interim goals as well, including the determination of fluxes and inventories of carbon in the modern ocean that air germane to the air-sea partitioning of C0{sub 2}. Models have a role to play here too, because many of these fluxes and inventories, such as the distributions of anthropogenic dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), new primary production and aphotic zone remineralization, while not amenable to direct observation on the large scale, can be determined using a variety of modeling approaches (Siegenthaler and Oeschger, 1987; Maier-Reimer and Hasselman, 1987, Bacastow and Maier

  17. Inter-comparison and performance evaluation of chemistry transport models over Indian region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Govardhan, Gaurav R.; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.; Satheesh, S. K.; Moorthy, K. Krishna; Takemura, Toshihiko

    2016-01-01

    Aerosol loading over the South Asian region has the potential to affect the monsoon rainfall, Himalayan glaciers and regional air-quality, with implications for the billions in this region. While field campaigns and network observations provide primary data, they tend to be location/season specific. Numerical models are useful to regionalize such location-specific data. Studies have shown that numerical models underestimate the aerosol scenario over the Indian region, mainly due to shortcomings related to meteorology and the emission inventories used. In this context, we have evaluated the performance of two such chemistry-transport models: WRF-Chem and SPRINTARS over an India-centric domain. The models differ in many aspects including physical domain, horizontal resolution, meteorological forcing and so on etc. Despite these differences, both the models simulated similar spatial patterns of Black Carbon (BC) mass concentration, (with a spatial correlation of 0.9 with each other), and a reasonable estimates of its concentration, though both of them under-estimated vis-a-vis the observations. While the emissions are lower (higher) in SPRINTARS (WRF-Chem), overestimation of wind parameters in WRF-Chem caused the concentration to be similar in both models. Additionally, we quantified the underestimations of anthropogenic BC emissions in the inventories used these two models and three other widely used emission inventories. Our analysis indicates that all these emission inventories underestimate the emissions of BC over India by a factor that ranges from 1.5 to 2.9. We have also studied the model simulations of aerosol optical depth over the Indian region. The models differ significantly in simulations of AOD, with WRF-Chem having a better agreement with satellite observations of AOD as far as the spatial pattern is concerned. It is important to note that in addition to BC, dust can also contribute significantly to AOD. The models differ in simulations of the spatial

  18. Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol-climate model intercomparison studies

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, P.-L.; Rasch, P. J.

    2014-04-24

    Nudging is an assimilation technique widely used in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosolmore » concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on longwave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy for the investigation of aerosol indirect effects through ice clouds, since it provides well-constrained meteorology without strongly perturbing the model's mean climate.« less

  19. Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol-climate model intercomparison studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, P.-L.; Rasch, P. J.

    2014-04-01

    Nudging is an assimilation technique widely used in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on longwave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy for the investigation of aerosol indirect effects through ice clouds, since it provides well-constrained meteorology without strongly perturbing the model's mean climate.

  20. Incorporating an advanced aerosol activation parameterization into WRF-CAM5: Model evaluation and parameterization intercomparison

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Yang; Zhang, Xin; Wang, Kai; He, Jian; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Fan, Jiwen; Nenes, Athanasios

    2015-07-22

    Aerosol activation into cloud droplets is an important process that governs aerosol indirect effects. The advanced treatment of aerosol activation by Fountoukis and Nenes (2005) and its recent updates, collectively called the FN series, have been incorporated into a newly developed regional coupled climate-air quality model based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the physics package of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (WRF-CAM5) to simulate aerosol-cloud interactions in both resolved and convective clouds. The model is applied to East Asia for two full years of 2005 and 2010. A comprehensive model evaluation is performed for model predictions of meteorological, radiative, and cloud variables, chemical concentrations, and column mass abundances against satellite data and surface observations from air quality monitoring sites across East Asia. The model performs overall well for major meteorological variables including near-surface temperature, specific humidity, wind speed, precipitation, cloud fraction, precipitable water, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, and column mass abundances of CO, SO2, NO2, HCHO, and O3 in terms of both magnitudes and spatial distributions. Larger biases exist in the predictions of surface concentrations of CO and NOx at all sites and SO2, O3, PM2.5, and PM10 concentrations at some sites, aerosol optical depth, cloud condensation nuclei over ocean, cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), cloud liquid and ice water path, and cloud optical thickness. Compared with the default Abdul-Razzack Ghan (2000) parameterization, simulations with the FN series produce ~107–113% higher CDNC, with half of the difference attributable to the higher aerosol activation fraction by the FN series and the remaining half due to feedbacks in subsequent cloud microphysical processes. With the higher CDNC, the FN series are more skillful in simulating cloud water path, cloud optical thickness, downward shortwave radiation

  1. Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol–climate model intercomparison studies

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, P.-L.; Rasch, P. J.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.

    2014-08-26

    Nudging as an assimilation technique has seen increased use in recent years in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity ofmore » simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on long-wave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations, and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. Results from both CAM5 and a second aerosol–climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 also indicate that compared to the wind-and-temperature nudging, constraining only winds leads to better agreement with the free-running model in terms of the estimated shortwave cloud forcing and the simulated convective activities. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not

  2. An Intercomparison of the Dynamical Cores of Global Atmospheric Circulation Models for Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

    1998-01-01

    This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Cen- ter and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to evaluate the dynamical "cores" of two global atmospheric circulation models for Mars that are in operation at the NASA Ames Research Center. ne two global circulation models in use are fundamentally different: one uses spherical harmonics in its horizontal representation of field variables; the other uses finite differences on a uniform longitude-latitude grid. Several simulations have been conducted to assess how the dynamical processors of each of these circulation models perform using identical "simple physics" parameterizations. A variety of climate statistics (e.g., time-mean flows and eddy fields) have been compared for realistic solstitial mean basic states. Results of this research have demonstrated that the two Mars circulation models with completely different spatial representations and discretizations produce rather similar circulation statistics for first-order meteorological fields, suggestive of a tendency for convergence of numerical solutions. Second and higher-order fields can, however, vary significantly between the two models.

  3. An Intercomparison of the Dynamical Cores of Global Atmospheric Circulation Models for Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

    1998-01-01

    This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to evaluate the dynamical "cores" of two global atmospheric circulation models for Mars that are in operation at the NASA Ames Research Center. The two global circulation models in use are fundamentally different: one uses spherical harmonics in its horizontal representation of field variables; the other uses finite differences on a uniform longitude-latitude grid. Several simulations have been conducted to assess how the dynamical processors of each of these circulation models perform using identical "simple physics" parameterizations. A variety of climate statistics (e.g., time-mean flows and eddy fields) have been compared for realistic solstitial mean basic states. Results of this research have demonstrated that the two Mars circulation models with completely different spatial representations and discretizations produce rather similar circulation statistics for first-order meteorological fields, suggestive of a tendency for convergence of numerical solutions. Second and higher-order fields can, however, vary significantly between the two models.

  4. An Intercomparison of the Dynamical Cores of Global Atmospheric Circulation Models for Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

    1998-01-01

    This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to evaluate the dynamical 'cores' of two global atmospheric circulation models for Mars that are in operation at the NASA Ames Research Center. The two global circulation models in use are fundamentally different: one uses spherical harmonics in its horizontal representation of field variables; the other uses finite differences on a uniform longitude-latitude grid. Several simulations have been conducted to assess how the dynamical processors of each of these circulation models perform using identical 'simple physics' parameterizations. A variety of climate statistics (e.g., time-mean flows and eddy fields) have been compared for realistic solstitial mean basic states. Results of this research have demonstrated that the two Mars circulation models with completely different spatial representations and discretizations produce rather similar circulation statistics for first-order meteorological fields, suggestive of a tendency for convergence of numerical solutions. Second and higher-order fields can, however, vary significantly between the two models.

  5. Intercomparisons between passive and active microwave remote sensing, and hydrological modeling for soil moisture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, E. F.; Lin, D.-S.; Mancini, M.; Thongs, D.; Troch, P. A.; Jackson, T. J.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Engman, E. T.

    1993-05-01

    Soil moisture estimates from a distributed hydrological model and two microwave remote sensors (Push Broom Microwave Radiometer and Synthetic Aperture Radar) were compared with the ground measurements collected during the MAC-HYDRO'90 experiment over a 7.4-km2 watershed in central Pennsylvania. Various information, including rainfall, soil properties, land cover, topography and remote sensing imagery, were integrated and analyzed using an image integration technique. It is found that the hydrological model and both microwave sensors successfully pick up the temporal variation of soil moisture. Results also indicate the spatial soil moisture pattern can be remotely sensed within reasonable accuracy using existing algorithms. Watershed averaged soil moisture estimates from the hydrological model are wetter than remotely sensed data. It is difficult to conclude which instrument yield better performance for the studied case. The choice will be based on the intended applications and information that is available.

  6. Technical Note: On the Use of Nudging for Aerosol-Climate Model Intercomparison Studies

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Kai; Wan, Hui; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, Po-Lun; Rasch, Philip J.; Neubauer, David; Lohmann, U.

    2014-08-26

    Nudging is an assimilation technique widely used in the development and evaluation of climate models. Con- straining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the artificial forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the relatively strong sensitivity of homogeneous ice nucleation to aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on longwave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. This suggests that nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy, especially for studies that involve both warm and cold clouds.

  7. Intercomparison of cloud model simulations of Arctic mixed-phase boundary layer clouds observed during SHEBA/FIRE-ACE

    SciTech Connect

    Morrison, H.; Zuidema, Paquita; Ackerman, Andrew; Avramov, Alexander; de Boer, Gijs; Fan, Jiwen; Fridlind, Ann; Hashino, Tempei; Harrington, Jerry Y.; Luo, Yali; Ovchinnikov, Mikhail; Shipway, Ben

    2011-06-16

    An intercomparison of six cloud-resolving and large-eddy simulation models is presented. This case study is based on observations of a persistent mixed-phase boundary layer cloud gathered on 7 May, 1998 from the Surface Heat Budget of Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) and First ISCCP Regional Experiment - Arctic Cloud Experiment (FIRE-ACE). Ice nucleation is constrained in the simulations in a way that holds the ice crystal concentration approximately fixed, with two sets of sensitivity runs in addition to the baseline simulations utilizing different specified ice nucleus (IN) concentrations. All of the baseline and sensitivity simulations group into two distinct quasi-steady states associated with either persistent mixed-phase clouds or all-ice clouds after the first few hours of integration, implying the existence of multiple equilibria. These two states are associated with distinctly different microphysical, thermodynamic, and radiative characteristics. Most but not all of the models produce a persistent mixed-phase cloud qualitatively similar to observations using the baseline IN/crystal concentration, while small increases in the IN/crystal concentration generally lead to rapid glaciation and conversion to the all-ice state. Budget analysis indicates that larger ice deposition rates associated with increased IN/crystal concentrations have a limited direct impact on dissipation of liquid in these simulations. However, the impact of increased ice deposition is greatly enhanced by several interaction pathways that lead to an increased surface precipitation flux, weaker cloud top radiative cooling and cloud dynamics, and reduced vertical mixing, promoting rapid glaciation of the mixed-phase cloud for deposition rates in the cloud layer greater than about 1-2x10-5 g kg-1 s-1. These results indicate the critical importance of precipitation-radiative-dynamical interactions in simulating cloud phase, which have been neglected in previous fixed-dynamical parcel studies of the cloud

  8. Aerosol indirect effects -- general circulation model intercomparison and evaluation with satellite data

    SciTech Connect

    Quaas, Johannes; Ming, Yi; Menon, Surabi; Takemura, Toshihiko; Wang, Minghuai; Penner, Joyce E.; Gettelman, Andrew; Lohmann, Ulrike; Bellouin, Nicolas; Boucher, Olivier; Sayer, Andrew M.; Thomas, Gareth E.; McComiskey, Allison; Feingold, Graham; Hoose, Corinna; Kristjansson, Jon Egill; Liu, Xiaohong; Balkanski, Yves; Donner, Leo J.; Ginoux, Paul A.; Stier, Philip; Feichter, Johann; Sednev, Igor; Bauer, Susanne E.; Koch, Dorothy; Grainger, Roy G.; Kirkevag, Alf; Iversen, Trond; Seland, Oyvind; Easter, Richard; Ghan, Steven J.; Rasch, Philip J.; Morrison, Hugh; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Iacono, Michael J.; Kinne, Stefan; Schulz, Michael

    2009-04-10

    Aerosol indirect effects continue to constitute one of the most important uncertainties for anthropogenic climate perturbations. Within the international AEROCOM initiative, the representation of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in ten different general circulation models (GCMs) is evaluated using three satellite datasets. The focus is on stratiform liquid water clouds since most GCMs do not include ice nucleation effects, and none of the model explicitly parameterizes aerosol effects on convective clouds. We compute statistical relationships between aerosol optical depth (Ta) and various cloud and radiation quantities in a manner that is consistent between the models and the satellite data. It is found that the model-simulated influence of aerosols on cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) compares relatively well to the satellite data at least over the ocean. The relationship between Ta and liquid water path is simulated much too strongly by the models. It is shown that this is partly related to the representation of the second aerosol indirect effect in terms of autoconversion. A positive relationship between total cloud fraction (fcld) and Ta as found in the satellite data is simulated by the majority of the models, albeit less strongly than that in the satellite data in most of them. In a discussion of the hypotheses proposed in the literature to explain the satellite-derived strong fcld - Ta relationship, our results indicate that none can be identified as unique explanation. Relationships similar to the ones found in satellite data between Ta and cloud top temperature or outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) are simulated by only a few GCMs. The GCMs that simulate a negative OLR - Ta relationship show a strong positive correlation between Ta and fcld The short-wave total aerosol radiative forcing as simulated by the GCMs is strongly influenced by the simulated anthropogenic fraction of Ta, and parameterisation assumptions such as a lower bound on Nd

  9. Intercomparison of Downscaling Methods on Hydrological Impact for Earth System Model of NE United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, P.; Fekete, B. M.; Rosenzweig, B.; Lengyel, F.; Vorosmarty, C. J.

    2012-12-01

    Atmospheric dynamics are essential inputs to Regional-scale Earth System Models (RESMs). Variables including surface air temperature, total precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed and humidity must be downscaled from coarse-resolution, global General Circulation Models (GCMs) to the high temporal and spatial resolution required for regional modeling. However, this downscaling procedure can be challenging due to the need to correct for bias from the GCM and to capture the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the regional dynamics. In this study, the results obtained using several downscaling techniques and observational datasets were compared for a RESM of the Northeast Corridor of the United States. Previous efforts have enhanced GCM model outputs through bias correction using novel techniques. For example, the Climate Impact Research at Potsdam Institute developed a series of bias-corrected GCMs towards the next generation climate change scenarios (Schiermeier, 2012; Moss et al., 2010). Techniques to better represent the heterogeneity of climate variables have also been improved using statistical approaches (Maurer, 2008; Abatzoglou, 2011). For this study, four downscaling approaches to transform bias-corrected HADGEM2-ES Model output (daily at .5 x .5 degree) to the 3'*3'(longitude*latitude) daily and monthly resolution required for the Northeast RESM were compared: 1) Bilinear Interpolation, 2) Daily bias-corrected spatial downscaling (D-BCSD) with Gridded Meteorological Datasets (developed by Abazoglou 2011), 3) Monthly bias-corrected spatial disaggregation (M-BCSD) with CRU(Climate Research Unit) and 4) Dynamic Downscaling based on Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. Spatio-temporal analysis of the variability in precipitation was conducted over the study domain. Validation of the variables of different downscaling methods against observational datasets was carried out for assessment of the downscaled climate model outputs. The effects of using the

  10. An Intercomparison of the Deposition Models Used in the CASTNET and CAPMoN Networks

    EPA Science Inventory

    To assess long-term trends in atmospheric deposition, the U.S. operates the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET) and Canada operates the Canadian Air and Precipitation Monitoring Network (CAPMoN). Both networks use modeled dry deposition velocities and measured atmospher...

  11. Intercomparison and validation of operational coastal-scale models, the experience of the project MOMAR.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brandini, C.; Coudray, S.; Taddei, S.; Fattorini, M.; Costanza, L.; Lapucci, C.; Poulain, P.; Gerin, R.; Ortolani, A.; Gozzini, B.

    2012-04-01

    The need for regional governments to implement operational systems for the sustainable management of coastal waters, in order to meet the requirements imposed by legislation (e.g. EU directives such as WFD, MSFD, BD and relevant national legislation) often lead to the implementation of coastal measurement networks and to the construction of computational models that surround and describe parts of regional seas without falling in the classic definition of regional/coastal models. Although these operational models may be structured to cover parts of different oceanographic basins, they can have considerable advantages and highlight relevant issues, such as the role of narrow channels, straits and islands in coastal circulation, as both in physical and biogeochemical processes such as in the exchanges of water masses among basins. Two models of this type were made in the context of cross-border European project MOMAR: an operational model of the Tuscan Archipelago sea and one around the Corsica coastal waters, which are both located between the Tyrrhenian and the Algerian-Ligurian-Provençal basins. Although these two models were based on different computer codes (MARS3D and ROMS), they have several elements in common, such as a 400 m resolution, boundary conditions from the same "father" model, and an important area of overlap, the Corsica channel, which has a key role in the exchange of water masses between the two oceanographic basins. In this work we present the results of the comparison of these two ocean forecasting systems in response to different weather and oceanographic forcing. In particular, we discuss aspects related to the validation of the two systems, and a systematic comparison between the forecast/hindcast based on such hydrodynamic models, as regards to both operational models available at larger scale, both to in-situ measurements made by fixed or mobile platforms. In this context we will also present the results of two oceanographic cruises in the

  12. Agriculture

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agriculture within the United States is varied and produces a large value ($200 billion in 2002) of production across a wide range of plant and animal production systems. Because of this diversity, changes in climate will likely impact agriculture throughout the United States. Climate affects crop, ...

  13. An evaluation of simulated particulate sulfate over East Asia through global model intercomparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goto, Daisuke; Nakajima, Teruyuki; Dai, Tie; Takemura, Toshihiko; Kajino, Mizuo; Matsui, Hitoshi; Takami, Akinori; Hatakeyama, Shiro; Sugimoto, Nobuo; Shimizu, Atsushi; Ohara, Toshimasa

    2015-06-01

    Sulfate aerosols simulated by an aerosol module coupled to the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) at a spatial resolution (220 km) widely used by global climate models were evaluated by a comparison with in situ observations and the same aerosol module coupled to the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) over East Asia for January, April, July, and October 2006. The results indicated that a horizontal gradient of sulfate from the source over China to the outflow over Korea-Japan was present in both the simulations and the observations. At the observation sites, the correlation coefficients of the sulfate concentrations between the simulations and the observations were high (NICAM: 0.49-0.89, MIROC: 0.61-0.77), whereas the simulated sulfate concentrations were lower than those obtained by the observation with the normalized mean bias of NICAM being -68 to -54% (all), -77 to -63% (source), and -67 to -30% (outflow) and that of MIROC being -61 to -28% (all), -77 to -63% (source), and -60 to +2% (outflow). Both NICAM and MIROC strongly underpredict surface SO2 over China source regions and Korea-Japan outflow regions, but the MIROC SO2 is much higher than NICAM SO2 over both regions. These differences between the models were mainly explained by differences in the sulfate formation within clouds and the dry deposition of SO2. These results indicated that the uncertainty of the meteorological and cloud fields as well as the vertical transport patterns between the different host climate models has a substantial impact on the simulated sulfate distribution.

  14. A meteorological forcing data set for global crop modeling: Development, evaluation, and intercomparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Okada, Masashi; Yokozawza, Masayuki

    2014-01-01

    The Global Risk Assessment toward Stable Production of Food (GRASP) project uses global crop models to evaluate the impacts on global food security by changes in climate extremes, water resources, and land use. Such models require meteorological forcing data. This study presents the development of the GRASP forcing data that is a hybrid of the reanalyses (ERA-40 and JRA-25) and observations. The GRASP data offer daily mean, maximum, and minimum 2 m air temperatures as well as precipitation, solar radiation, vapor pressure, and 10 m wind speed over global land areas, excluding Antarctica, for the period 1961-2010 at a grid size of 1.125°. The monthly climatologies of the variables of the GRASP data were forced to be close to those of the observations for the baseline period (1961-1990 or 1983-2005) through bias corrections. The GRASP data are intercompared with other forcing data for land surface modeling (the S06, WATCH Forcing Data, and WATCH Forcing Data Methodology Applied to ERA-Interim data). The results demonstrate that the daily minimum temperature, diurnal temperature range, vapor pressure, solar radiation, and wind speed from the GRASP data are more valuable for crop modeling than the reanalyses and other forcing data. For remaining variables, the reliability of the GRASP data is higher than that of the reanalyses and on a similar level with that of the other forcing data. The GRASP data offer accurate estimates of daily weather as the inputs for crop models, providing unique opportunities to link historical changes in climate with crop production over the last half century.

  15. Ecosystem model intercomparison of under-ice and total primary production in the Arctic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Meibing; Popova, Ekaterina E.; Zhang, Jinlun; Ji, Rubao; Pendleton, Daniel; Varpe, Øystein; Yool, Andrew; Lee, Younjoo J.

    2016-01-01

    Previous observational studies have found increasing primary production (PP) in response to declining sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean. In this study, under-ice PP was assessed based on three coupled ice-ocean-ecosystem models participating in the Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS) project. All models showed good agreement with under-ice measurements of surface chlorophyll-a concentration and vertically integrated PP rates during the main under-ice production period, from mid-May to September. Further, modeled 30-year (1980-2009) mean values and spatial patterns of sea ice concentration compared well with remote sensing data. Under-ice PP was higher in the Arctic shelf seas than in the Arctic Basin, but ratios of under-ice PP over total PP were spatially correlated with annual mean sea ice concentration, with higher ratios in higher ice concentration regions. Decreases in sea ice from 1980 to 2009 were correlated significantly with increases in total PP and decreases in the under-ice PP/total PP ratio for most of the Arctic, but nonsignificantly related to under-ice PP, especially in marginal ice zones. Total PP within the Arctic Circle increased at an annual rate of between 3.2 and 8.0 Tg C/yr from 1980 to 2009. This increase in total PP was due mainly to a PP increase in open water, including increases in both open water area and PP rate per unit area, and therefore much stronger than the changes in under-ice PP. All models suggested that, on a pan-Arctic scale, the fraction of under-ice PP declined with declining sea ice cover over the last three decades.

  16. The Development Model Electronic Commerce of Regional Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, Jun; Cai, Lecai; Li, Hongchan

    With the developing of the agricultural information, it is inevitable trend of the development of agricultural electronic commercial affairs. On the basis of existing study on the development application model of e-commerce, combined with the character of the agricultural information, compared with the developing model from the theory and reality, a new development model electronic commerce of regional agriculture base on the government is put up, and such key issues as problems of the security applications, payment mode, sharing mechanisms, and legal protection are analyzed, etc. The among coordination mechanism of the region is discussed on, it is significance for regulating the development of agricultural e-commerce and promoting the regional economical development.

  17. Aerosol indirect effects ? general circulation model intercomparison and evaluation with satellite data

    SciTech Connect

    Quaas, Johannes; Ming, Yi; Menon, Surabi; Takemura, Toshihiko; Wang, Minghuai; Penner, Joyce E.; Gettelman, Andrew; Lohmann, Ulrike; Bellouin, Nicolas; Boucher, Olivier; Sayer, Andrew M.; Thomas, Gareth E.; McComiskey, Allison; Feingold, Graham; Hoose, Corinna; Kristansson, Jon Egill; Liu, Xiaohong; Balkanski, Yves; Donner, Leo J.; Ginoux, Paul A.; Stier, Philip; Grandey, Benjamin; Feichter, Johann; Sednev, Igor; Bauer, Susanne E.; Koch, Dorothy; Grainger, Roy G.; Kirkevag, Alf; Iversen, Trond; Seland, Oyvind; Easter, Richard; Ghan, Steven J.; Rasch, Philip J.; Morrison, Hugh; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Iacono, Michael J.; Kinne, Stefan; Schulz, Michael

    2010-03-12

    Aerosol indirect effects continue to constitute one of the most important uncertainties for anthropogenic climate perturbations. Within the international AEROCOM initiative, the representation of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in ten different general circulation models (GCMs) is evaluated using three satellite datasets. The focus is on stratiform liquid water clouds since most GCMs do not include ice nucleation effects, and none of the model explicitly parameterises aerosol effects on convective clouds. We compute statistical relationships between aerosol optical depth ({tau}{sub a}) and various cloud and radiation quantities in a manner that is consistent between the models and the satellite data. It is found that the model-simulated influence of aerosols on cloud droplet number concentration (N{sub d}) compares relatively well to the satellite data at least over the ocean. The relationship between {tau}{sub a} and liquid water path is simulated much too strongly by the models. This suggests that the implementation of the second aerosol indirect effect mainly in terms of an autoconversion parameterisation has to be revisited in the GCMs. A positive relationship between total cloud fraction (f{sub cld}) and {tau}{sub a} as found in the satellite data is simulated by the majority of the models, albeit less strongly than that in the satellite data in most of them. In a discussion of the hypotheses proposed in the literature to explain the satellite-derived strong f{sub cld} - {tau}{sub a} relationship, our results indicate that none can be identified as a unique explanation. Relationships similar to the ones found in satellite data between {tau}{sub a} and cloud top temperature or outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) are simulated by only a few GCMs. The GCMs that simulate a negative OLR - {tau}{sub a} relationship show a strong positive correlation between {tau}{sub a} and f{sub cld} The short-wave total aerosol radiative forcing as simulated by the GCMs is

  18. A data-model intercomparison study of Arctic sea-ice variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armstrong, A. E.; Tremblay, L.-B.; Mysak, L. A.

    2003-01-01

    The dynamic-thermodynamic granular rheology sea-ice model of Tremblay and Mysak is validated against 40 years of observed sea-ice concentration (SIC) data. Subsequently, the mechanisms responsible for producing SIC anomalies in the model are evaluated by studying the coupled variance (using the singular value decomposition method, SVD) between the simulated SIC anomalies and the ice speed and air temperature anomalies. To execute this validation, a 49-year (1949-97) simulation (including a 9-year spin-up period) of the Arctic and peripheral sea-ice cover using daily varying winds and monthly mean air temperatures is produced. In general, the simulated SIC variations for 1958-97 in the East Siberian, Chukchi and Beaufort seas are in agreement with observations, while larger discrepancies occur in the Laptev and Kara seas. Moreover, the sensitivity of the model to southerly wind anomalies in creating summer SIC anomalies compares well with the observed sensitivity; however, the model's sensitivity to summer air temperature anomalies is weaker than observed. The summer SIC anomalies over an entire sea are not influenced by variations in the level of river runoff. Results from the SVD analysis show that the main source of variability in the peripheral seas is associated with the variation in the strength of the Arctic High; in the East Siberian and Laptev seas, the strengthening and weakening of the Transpolar Drift Stream also play an important role. Over the entire Arctic domain, surface air temperature anomalies are negatively correlated with sea-ice anomalies. Finally, the observed downward trend in total sea-ice cover in the last two decades as well as record minima in the East Siberian Sea are well reproduced in the simulation.

  19. Intercomparison Of Approaches For Modeling Second Order Ionospheric Corrections Using Gnss Measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia Fernandez, M.; Butala, M.; Komjathy, A.; Desai, S. D.

    2012-12-01

    Correcting GNSS tracking data for the effects of second order ionospheric effects have been shown to cause a southward shift in GNSS-based precise point positioning solutions by as much as 10 mm, depending on the solar cycle conditions. The most commonly used approaches for modeling the higher order ionospheric effect include, (a) the use of global ionosphere maps to determine vertical total electron content (VTEC) and convert to slant TEC (STEC) assuming a thin shell ionosphere, and (b) using the dual-frequency measurements themselves to determine STEC. The latter approach benefits from not requiring ionospheric mapping functions between VTEC and STEC. However, this approach will require calibrations with receiver and transmitter Differential Code Biases (DCBs). We present results from comparisons of the two approaches. For the first approach, we also compare the use of VTEC observations from IONEX maps compared to climatological model-derived VTEC as provided by the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI2012). We consider various metrics to evaluate the relative performance of the different approaches, including station repeatability, GNSS-based reference frame recovery, and post-fit measurement residuals. Overall, the GIM-based approaches tend to provide lower noise in second order ionosphere correction and positioning solutions. The use of IONEX and IRI2012 models of VTEC provide similar results, especially in periods of low solar activity periods. The use of the IRI2012 model provides a convenient approach for operational scenarios by eliminating the dependence on routine updates of the GIMs, and also serves as a useful source of VTEC when IONEX maps may not be readily available.

  20. An intercomparison of model ozone deficits in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere from two data sets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siskind, David E.; Connor, Brian J.; Eckman, Richard S.; Remsberg, Ellis E.; Tsou, J. J.; Parrish, Alan

    1995-06-01

    We have compared a diurnal photochemical model of ozone with nighttime data from the limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere (LIMS) and ground-based microwave observations. Consistent with previous studies, the model underpredicts the observations by about 10-30%. This agreement is strong confirmation that the model ozone deficit is not simply an artifact of observational error since it is unlikely to occur for two completely different ozone data sets. We have also examined the seasonal, altitudinal, and diurnal morphology of the ozone deficit. Both comparisons show a deficit that peaks in the upper stratosphere (2-3 mbar) and goes through a minimum in the lower mesosphere from 1.0 to 0.4 mbar. At lower pressures (<0.2 mbar) the deficit appears to increase again. The seasonal variation of the deficit is less consistent. The deficit with respect to the LIMS data is least in winter while with respect to the microwave data, the deficit shows little seasonal variation. Finally, the night-to-day ratio in our model is in generally good agreement with that seen in the microwave experiment. Increasing the rate coefficient for the reaction O + O2 + M → O3 + M improves the fit, while a very large (50%) decrease in the HOx catalytic cycle is not consistent with our observations. Increasing the atomic oxygen recombination rate also improves the overall agreement with both data sets; however, a residual discrepancy still remains. There appears to be no single chemical parameter which, when modified, can simultaneously resolve both the stratospheric and mesospheric ozone deficits.

  1. Intercomparison of GRACE Solutions with Hydrological Model Outputs Over Tropical Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becker, M.; Cazenave, A.; Alkama, R.; Decharme, B.; Douville, H.; Güntner, A.

    2009-04-01

    Different estimates of total continental water storage variations over tropical Africa have been derived from GRACE satellite gravity measurements over the period 2002-2008. Here we analyse the solutions provided by different groups (CSR, GFZ, GRGS, ITG and JPL) and we compare them with the outputs of global hydrological simulations based on two land surface models (ISBA and WGHM) driven by observed atmospheric forcings. The comparison is made at three timescales: annual cycle, interannual variability and possible trends over recent decades. The focus is mainly on East Africa where natural climate variability and anthropogenic effects (e.g. regulation of Lake Victoria) both contribute to the recent fluctuations of regional water storage. The results show a relatively good agreement between the GRACE solutions and the models outputs, at least as far as the annual cycle is concerned, and suggest that GRACE data are useful for the validation of global hydrological models and the study of land water budget variability at the regional scale.

  2. Phosphorus modeling in tile drained agricultural systems using APEX

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Phosphorus losses through tile drained systems in agricultural landscapes may be causing the persistent eutrophication problems observed in surface water. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the state of the science in the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model related to surf...

  3. The Model Intercomparison Project on the Climatic Response to Volcanic Forcing (VolMIP): Experimental Design and Forcing Input Data for CMIP6

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zanchettin, Davide; Khodri, Myriam; Timmreck, Claudia; Toohey, Matthew; Schmidt, Anja; Gerber, Edwin P.; Hegerl, Gabriele; Robock, Alan; Pausata, Francesco; Ball, William T.; Bauer, Susanne E.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    The enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer by volcanic eruptions induces a complex set of responses causing global and regional climate effects on a broad range of timescales. Uncertainties exist regarding the climatic response to strong volcanic forcing identified in coupled climate simulations that contributed to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In order to better understand the sources of these model diversities, the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) has defined a coordinated set of idealized volcanic perturbation experiments to be carried out in alignment with the CMIP6 protocol. VolMIP provides a common stratospheric aerosol data set for each experiment to minimize differences in the applied volcanic forcing. It defines a set of initial conditions to assess how internal climate variability contributes to determining the response. VolMIP will assess to what extent volcanically forced responses of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system are robustly simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate models and identify the causes that limit robust simulated behavior, especially differences in the treatment of physical processes. This paper illustrates the design of the idealized volcanic perturbation experiments in the VolMIP protocol and describes the common aerosol forcing input data sets to be used.

  4. Intercomparison of atmospheric reanalysis data in the Arctic region: To derive site-specific forcing data for terrestrial models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mori, J.; Saito, K.; Machiya, H.; Yabuki, H.; Ikawa, H.; Ohta, T.; Iijima, Y.; Kotani, A.; Suzuki, R.; Miyazaki, S.; Sato, A.; Hajima, T.; Sueyoshi, T.

    2015-12-01

    An intercomparison project for the Arctic terrestrial (physical and ecosystem) models, GTMIP, is conducted, targeting at improvements in the existing terrestrial schemes, as an activity of the Terrestrial Ecosystem research group in the Arctic of Japan GRENE Arctic Climate Change Research Project (GRENE-TEA). For site simulations for four GRENE-TEA sites (i.e., Fairbanks/AK, Kevo/Finland, Tiksi and Yakutsk/Siberia), we needed to prepare continuous, site-fit forcing data ready to drive the models. Due to scarcity of site observations in the region, however, it was difficult to make such data directly from the observations. Therefore, we decided to create a backbone dataset (Level 0 or Lv0) first by utilizing the reanalysis data to derive the site-specific data (Level 1 or Lv1). For selection of the best dataset for our purpose, we compared four atmospheric reanalysis datasets, i.e., ERA Interim, JRA-55, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1, and NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2, in terms of the climatic reproducibility (w.r.t. temperature at 2 m and precipitation) in the region north of 60°N. CRU for temperature and GPCP for precipitation were also used for monthly-mean ground-level climate. As we will show ERA-Interim showed the smallest bias for both the parameters in terms of RMSE. Especially, air temperature in the cold period was reproduced better in ERA-Interim than is in JRA-55 or other reanalysis products. Therefore, we created Lv0 from ERA-Interim. Comparison between the site observations and Lv0 showed good agreement except for wind speed at all sites and air temperature at Tiksi, a coastal site in the eastern Siberia. Air temperature of ERA-Interim showed significantly continental characteristics while the site observation more coastal. The 34-year-long, hourly, site-fit continuous data (Lv1) for each of the GRENE-TEA sites was then created from the Lv0 values at the grid point closest to the site, by merging with the observations.

  5. Aerosol indirect effects – general circulation model intercomparison and evaluation with satellite data

    SciTech Connect

    Quaas, Johannes; Ming, Yi; Menon, Surabi; Takemura, T.; Wang, Minghuai; Penner, Joyce E.; Gettelman, A.; Lohmann, U.; Bellouin, N.; Boucher, Olivier; Sayer, Andrew M.; Thomas, Gareth E.; McComiskey, A.; Feingold, G.; Hoose, Corinna; Kristjansson, J. E.; Liu, Xiaohong; Balkanski, Y.; Donner, Leo J.; Ginoux, P.; Stier, P.; Grandey, B.; Feichter, J.; Sednev, Igor; Bauer, Susanne E.; Koch, D.; Grainger, Roy G.; Kirkevag, A.; Iversen, T.; Seland, O.; Easter, Richard C.; Ghan, Steven J.; Rasch, Philip J.; Morrison, H.; Lamarque, J. F.; Iacono, Michael J.; Kinne, Stefan; Schulz, M.

    2009-11-16

    Aerosol indirect effects continue to constitute one of the most important uncertainties for anthropogenic climate perturbations. Within the international AEROCOM initiative, the representation of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in ten different general circulation models (GCMs) is evaluated in the present study using three satellite datasets. The satellite datasets are taken as reference bearing in mind that cloud and aerosol retrievals include uncertainties. We compute statistical relationships between aerosol optical depth (τa) and various cloud and radiation quantities consistently in models and satellite data. It is found that the model-simulated influence of aerosols on cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) compares relatively well to the satellite data at least over oceans. The relationship between τa and liquid water path is simulated much too strongly by the models. It is shown that this is partly related to rep¬resentation of the second aerosol indirect effect in terms of autoconversion. A positive re¬lationship between total cloud fraction (fcld) and τa as found in the satellite data is simulated by the majority of the models, albeit less strongly in most of them. In a discussion of the hypo¬theses proposed in the literature to explain the satellite-derived strong fcld – τa relation¬ship, we find that none is unequivocally confirmed by our results. Relationships similar to the ones found in satellite data between τa and cloud top tem¬perature and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) are simulated by only a few GCMs. The GCMs that simulate a negative OLR - τa relationship show a strong positive cor¬relation between τa and cloud fraction. The short-wave total aerosol radiative forcing as simulated by the GCMs is strongly influenced by the simulated anthropogenic fraction of τa, and parameterisation assumptions such as a lower bound on Nd. Nevertheless, the strengths of the statistical relationships are good predictors for the short

  6. An Architecture and Analysis Environment for Model to Observational Data Intercomparisons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mattmann, C. A.; Williams, D.; Braverman, A. J.; Crichton, D. J.

    2009-12-01

    The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has within the last year initiated an effort to increase the use of its observational data in the improvement and analysis of climate model outputs. This effort, known as the Climate Data eXchange (CDX), is a multi-institutional collaboration involving representatives from JPL and from the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparisions (PCMDI) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Our early focus in the context of CDX has been on NASA Level 2 observational data products. These products vary in a number of ways incl.: (1) format - many of the products are stored in the Hierarchical Data Format (HDF), others in netCDF, with variation even between software versions that generated these output files within the same format; (2) geographic distribution - most observational data products are co-located with their scientific discipline expertise, to increase the yield of promising scientific results and to cut down on the effort for a science user to make progress; (3) data access mechanism - some data products are available from sophisticated web service interfaces, e.g., OPeNDAP -- others are not, requiring a user to fill on an online web ordering ``cart'', and have an email notification indicating availability at a later date; and (4) size - depending on the frequency of the instrument's orbit, and the characteristics of the mission including the way that the instrument ``sees'' the Earth, the sheer volume of the Level 2 data can widely vary, ranging from megabytes (MB) per product, to gigabytes (GB). These four dimensions are just a sampling of the characteristics of Level 2 observational data. The goal of CDX is to deliver an open source software toolkit that allows science users to alleviate as much of the complexity of dealing with Level 2 observational data as possible, and to facilitate its comparison to model outputs. In this fashion, there are two fundamental subsystems within CDX: (1) a Client Toolkit

  7. Indian Monsoon and its Variability during the last Millennium - a Model-Proxy-Intercomparison Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polanski, S.; Fallah, B.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Cubasch, U.

    2012-12-01

    The last Millennium is the best documented climate period affected by variations in external forcing and internal dynamics in a highly nonlinear climate system. According to that the Indian Monsoon and its high variability on different time scales plays an important role, studied in the interdisciplinary HIMPAC project (Himalaya - Modern and Past Climates). In order to understand the driving mechanisms, feedbacks and amplifiers regarding the monsoon variability of the last 1.200 years, the five ensemble members of the full forced simulation of the Millennium experiment (Jungclaus et al., 2010), using the coupled COSMOS Earth System Model (ECHAM5/JSBACH-MPIOM/HAMOCC) in a T31L19 spatial resolution, have been statistically analysed to detect strong wet and dry periods of monsoon rainfall within the All India Monsoon Rainfall Region. Later the selected periods of extreme rainfall events have been simulated in a higher spatial resolution with the atmosphere-only model ECHAM5 in a T63L31 spatial resolution. The focus is on the monsoon variability of the selected 200-years long time slices within the Medieval Climate Optimum (MWP; 900-1100 AD), the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1515-1715 AD) and the Preindustrial (PI; 1800-2000 AD). The relative annual rainfall anomalies simulated by ECHAM5 model show drier (wetter) conditions over India during the MWP (LIA) compared to the PI. The spatial EOF variance patterns of the summer monsoon rainfall in the MWP are more pronounced in the lower resolved T31L19 Millennium simulation according to the higher amount of simulated rainfall whereas the differentiation of the patterns is better in the T63L31 ECHAM5 simulation especially in the Himalayas due to the better representation of the mountains. Furthermore the simulations have been also compared with paleoclimatic reconstructions based on proxy data from different archives (Bhattacharya et al., 2007, Chauhan et al., 2000, Denniston et al., 2000, Ely et al., 1999, Kar et al., 2002, Ponton

  8. A NASA Climate Model Data Services (CDS) End-to-End System to Support Reanalysis Intercomparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carriere, L.; Potter, G. L.; McInerney, M.; Nadeau, D.; Shen, Y.; Duffy, D.; Schnase, J. L.; Maxwell, T. P.; Huffer, E.

    2014-12-01

    The NASA Climate Model Data Service (CDS) and the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) are collaborating to provide an end-to-end system for the comparative study of the major Reanalysis projects, currently, ECMWF ERA-Interim, NASA/GMAO MERRA, NOAA/NCEP CFSR, NOAA/ESRL 20CR, and JMA JRA25. Components of the system include the full spectrum of Climate Model Data Services; Data, Compute Services, Data Services, Analytic Services and Knowledge Services. The Data includes standard Reanalysis model output, and will be expanded to include gridded observations, and gridded Innovations (O-A and O-F). The NCCS High Performance Science Cloud provides the compute environment (storage, servers, and network). Data Services are provided through an Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) data node complete with Live Access Server (LAS), Web Map Service (WMS) and Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT) for visualization, as well as a collaborative interface through the Earth System CoG. Analytic Services include UV-CDAT for analysis and MERRA/AS, accessed via the CDS API, for computation services, both part of the CDS Climate Analytics as a Service (CAaaS). Knowledge Services include access to an Ontology browser, ODISEES, for metadata search and data retrieval. The result is a system that provides the ability for both reanalysis scientists and those scientists in need of reanalysis output to identify the data of interest, compare, compute, visualize, and research without the need for transferring large volumes of data, performing time consuming format conversions, and writing code for frequently run computations and visualizations.

  9. An evaluation and intercomparison of four new advection schemes for use in global chemistry models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petersen, Arthur C.; Spee, Edwin J.; van Dop, Han; Hundsdorfer, Willem

    1998-08-01

    The need to use a higher spatial resolution and to include more chemical species in global atmospheric chemistry models has led to a demand for efficient advection schemes with high accuracy. We test four newly developed three-dimensional advection schemes named Mol-rg, Split-u, Split-us, and Split-rg. We compare the new schemes with the existing schemes Slopes and Second Moments, both implemented on a uniform grid. Mol-rg and Split-rg make use of a reduced grid. Split-us is an unconditionally stable scheme on a uniform grid. Two tests are performed with all schemes: a solid-body rotation test and a radon transport test. The radon transport test is performed with the off-line global tracer model TM2. The solid-body rotation test shows that none of the new schemes generates undershoot and overshoot and that all of them are mass conservative. Slopes and Second Moments both generate small undershoot and overshoot at all resolutions. The accuracy of the new and old schemes for rotation of a smooth profile is similar for the horizontal resolutions studied. Since the new schemes are slightly more diffusive than the old schemes, they perform worse for rotation of a cone. The radon test shows that the errors related to the numerical schemes are much smaller than other model errors. The main advantage of the new schemes is that they use 75% and 90% less memory than Slopes and Second Moments, respectively. At horizontal resolutions higher than 5° × 5° Split-us and Split-rg are the most efficient of the schemes in terms of cpu time. The new advection schemes are available through Internet.

  10. EURADOS intercomparison exercise on MC modeling for the in-vivo monitoring of Am-241 in skull phantoms (Part I)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vrba, Tomas; Nogueira, Pedro; Broggio, David; Caldeira, Margarida; Capello, Kevin; Fantínová, Karin; Figueira, Catarina; Hunt, John; Leone, Debora; Murugan, Manohari; Marzocchi, Olaf; Moraleda, Montse; Shutt, Arron; Suh, Soheigh; Takahashi, Masa; Tymińska, Katarzyna; Antonia Lopez, Maria; Tanner, Rick

    2014-11-01

    An intercomparison on in-vivo monitoring for determination of 241Am in three skull phantoms was launched by EURADOS in 2011. The project focused on the measurement and estimation of 241Am activity in the human skull. Three human skull phantoms of different complexity were used. A Monte Carlo (MC) exercise with the voxel representations of the real phantoms was also launched in September 2012. The main goals of the project were to investigate the use of MC techniques for efficiency calibrations for body monitoring systems for a special calibration exercise and compare the approaches of participating laboratories. The full MC exercise consisted of three tasks with increasing difficulty, to test the extent of the skills of each participating laboratory. The first task in this intercomparison was to simulate a specified detector and a well defined semi-skull phantom. All parameters of the simulation, including photon yield, material property and geometry were fixed. This paper provides an overview of the participants’ results and analyses of the issues presented by this first task. The majority of the responses did not need any correction and the number of incorrect results was less than in a previous exercise of a similar kind. Overall knowledge in this research area utilising MC techniques appears to have improved and the repetition of the intercomparison exercise has positively affected the skills of the participating laboratories.

  11. Assessment of malaria transmission changes in Africa, due to the climate impact of land use change using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 earth system models.

    PubMed

    Tompkins, Adrian M; Caporaso, Luca

    2016-01-01

    Using mathematical modelling tools, we assessed the potential for land use change (LUC) associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change low- and high-end emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) to impact malaria transmission in Africa. To drive a spatially explicit, dynamical malaria model, data from the four available earth system models (ESMs) that contributed to the LUC experiment of the Fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project are used. Despite the limited size of the ESM ensemble, stark differences in the assessment of how LUC can impact climate are revealed. In three out of four ESMs, the impact of LUC on precipitation and temperature over the next century is limited, resulting in no significant change in malaria transmission. However, in one ESM, LUC leads to increases in precipitation under scenario RCP2.6, and increases in temperature in areas of land use conversion to farmland under both scenarios. The result is a more intense transmission and longer transmission seasons in the southeast of the continent, most notably in Mozambique and southern Tanzania. In contrast, warming associated with LUC in the Sahel region reduces risk in this model, as temperatures are already above the 25-30°C threshold at which transmission peaks. The differences between the ESMs emphasise the uncertainty in such assessments. It is also recalled that the modelling framework is unable to adequately represent local-scale changes in climate due to LUC, which some field studies indicate could be significant. PMID:27063732

  12. Hydrological cycle in the Danube basin in present and projected future climate conditions: a models' intercomparison perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucarini, V.

    2010-09-01

    We present an intercomparison and verification analysis of several GCMs and RCMs included in the 4th IPCC assessment report on their representation of the hydrological cycle on the Danube river basin for present and (in the case of the GCMs) projected future climate conditions. The basin-scale properties of the hydrological cycle are computed by spatially integrating the precipitation, evaporation, and runoff fields using the Voronoi-Thiessen tessellation formalism. Large discrepancies exist among RCMs for the monthly climatology as well as for the mean and variability of the annual balances, and only few data sets are consistent with the observed discharge values of the Danube at its Delta. This occurs in spite of common nesting of the RCMs into the same run of the same AGCM, and even if the driving AGCM provides itself an excellent estimate. We find consistently that, for a given model, increases in the resolution do not alter the net water balance, while speeding up the hydrological cycle through the enhancement of both precipitation and evaporation by the same amount. We propose that the atmospheric components of RCMs still face difficulties in representing the water balance even on a relatively large scale. Moreover, since for some models the hydrological balance estimates obtained with the runoff fields do not agree with those obtained via precipitation and evaporation, some deficiencies of the land models are also apparent. In the case of the GCMs, the span of the model- simulated mean annual water balances is of the same order of magnitude of the observed Danube discharge of the Delta; the true value is within the range simulated by the models. Some land components seem to have deficiencies since there are cases of violation of water conservation when annual means are considered. The overall performance and the degree of agreement of the GCMs are, surprisingly, comparable to those of the RCMs. Both RCMs and GCMs greatly outperform the NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40

  13. An intercomparison of intraseasonal variability in general circulation models and observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Park, Chung-Kyu; Straus, David M.; Lau, Ka-Ming; Schubert, Siegfried D.

    1990-01-01

    Low frequency oscillations appearing in three GCM seasonal cycle integrations are compared with the analyses of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). All three models have the same resolution: 4 deg latitude by 5 deg longitude, with 9 levels. The dominant phase speeds and the differential vertical structure of the heating profiles in the GCMs are in general agreement with current theory involving the positive feedback between latent heating and moist static stability. All three GCMs fail to capture the detailed evolution in the different stages of the development and decay of the oscillation. The results suggest that an improvement in the boundary layer moisture processes may be crucial for a better simulation of the oscillation.

  14. What is the difference between a 2, 3, 4, or 5 °C world and how good are we at telling this difference? Results from ISI-MIP the first Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frieler, K.; Huber, V.; Piontek, F.; Schewe, J.; Serdeczny, O.; Warszawski, L.

    2012-12-01

    The Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) aims to synthesize the state-of-the-art knowledge of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. Over 25 climate impact modelling teams from around the world, working within the agriculture, water, biomes, infrastructure and health sectors, are collaborating to find answers to the question "What is the difference between a 2, 3, 4, or 5 °C world and how good are we at telling this difference?". The analysis is based on common, bias-corrected climate projections, and socio-economic pathways. The first, fast-tracked phase of the ISI-MIP has a focus on global impact models. The project's experimental design is formulated to distinguish the uncertainty introduced by the impact models themselves, from the inherent uncertainty in the climate projections and the variety of plausible socio-economic futures. Novel metrics, developed to emphasize societal impacts, will be used to identify regional 'hot-spots' of climate change impacts, as well as to quantify the cross-sectoral impact of the increasing frequency of extreme events in future climates. We present here first results from the Fast-Track phase of the project covering impact simulations in the biomes, agriculture and water sectors, in which the societal impacts of climate change are quantified for different levels of global warming. We also discuss the design of the scenario set-up and impact indicators chosen to suit the unique cross-sectoral, multi-model nature of the project.

  15. Methods for Validation and Intercomparison of Remote Sensing and In situ Ice Water Measurements: Case Studies from CRYSTAL-FACE and Model Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sayres, D.S.; Pittman, J. V.; Smith, J. B.; Weinstock, E. M.; Anderson, J. G.; Heymsfield, G.; Li, L.; Fridlind, A.; Ackerman, A. S.

    2004-01-01

    Remote sensing observations, such as those from AURA, are necessary to understand the role of cirrus in determining the radiative and humidity budgets of the upper troposphere. Using these measurements quantitatively requires comparisons with in situ measurements that have previously been validated. However, a direct comparison of remote and in situ measurements is difficult due to the requirement that the spatial and temporal overlap be sufficient in order to guarantee that both instruments are measuring the same air parcel. A difficult as this might be for gas phase intercomparisons, cloud inhomogeneities significantly exacerbate the problem for cloud ice water content measurements. The CRYSTAL-FACE mission provided an opportunity to assess how well such intercomparisons can be performed and to establish flight plans that will be necessary for validation of future satellite instruments. During CRYSTAL-FACE, remote and in situ instruments were placed on different aircraft (NASA's ER-2 and WB-59, and the two planes flew in tandem so that the in situ payload flew in the field of view of the remote instruments. We show here that, even with this type of careful flight planning, it is not always possible to guarantee that remote and in situ instruments are viewing the same air parcel. We use ice water data derived from the in situ Harvard Total Water (HV-TW) instrument, and the remote Goddard Cloud Radar System (CRS) and show that agreement between HV-TW and CRS is a strong function of the horizontal separation and the time delay between the aircraft transects. We also use a cloud model to simulate possible trajectories through a cloud and evaluate the use of statistical analysis in determining the agreement between the two instruments. This type of analysis should guide flight planning for future intercomparison efforts, whether for aircraft or satellite-borne instrumentation.

  16. Intercomparison of daytime stratospheric NO2 satellite retrievals and model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belmonte Rivas, M.; Veefkind, P.; Boersma, F.; Levelt, P.; Eskes, H.; Gille, J.

    2014-07-01

    This paper evaluates the agreement between stratospheric NO2 retrievals from infrared limb sounders (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) and High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS)) and solar UV/VIS backscatter sensors (Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) limb and nadir) over the 2005-2007 period and across the seasons. The observational agreement is contrasted with the representation of NO2 profiles in 3-D chemical transport models such as the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and TM4. A conclusion central to this work is that the definition of a reference for stratospheric NO2 columns formed by consistent agreement among SCIAMACHY, MIPAS and HIRDLS limb records (all of which agree to within 0.25 × 1015 molecules cm-2 or better than 10%) allows us to draw attention to relative errors in other data sets, e.g., (1) WACCM overestimates NO2 densities in the extratropical lower stratosphere, particularly in the springtime and over northern latitudes by up to 35% relative to limb observations, and (2) there are remarkable discrepancies between stratospheric NO2 column estimates from limb and nadir techniques, with a characteristic seasonally and latitudinally dependent pattern. We find that SCIAMACHY nadir and OMI stratospheric columns show overall biases of -0.5 × 1015 molecules cm-2 (-20%) and +0.6 × 1015 molecules cm-2 (+20%) relative to limb observations, respectively. It is argued that additive biases in nadir stratospheric columns are not expected to affect tropospheric retrievals significantly, and that they can be attributed to errors in the total slant column density, related either to algorithmic or instrumental effects. In order to obtain accurate and long-term time series of stratospheric NO2, an effort towards the harmonization of currently used differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) approaches to nadir

  17. Intercomparison of methods for calculating potential evaporation in regional and global water balance models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Federer, C. A.; Vörösmarty, C.; Fekete, B.

    Five methods (Thornthwaite, Hamon, Jensen-Haise, Turc, and Penman) for estimating potential evaporation for a reference surface (PEr) were compared to four methods (Priestley-Taylor, McNaughton-Black, Penman-Monteith, and Shuttleworth-Wallace) for estimating surface-dependent potential evaporation (PEs) using three cover types at each of seven locations from Fairbanks, Alaska, to San Juan, Puerto Rico. For annual PE the PEs methods generally agreed with the PEr methods, but for many locations, differences among methods were hundreds of millimeters per year. No methods were consistently low or high. Three of the PEs methods depend strongly on maximum leaf conductance, for which Körner [1994] provided satisfactory values by cover type. Potential interception (PEi) can only be estimated appropriately for all cover types by the Shuttleworth-Wallace method. Use of 5-day or monthly input data did not greatly degrade results, so use of monthly data to generate PE estimates appears warranted in global water balance models.

  18. NRC model simulations in support of the hydrologic code intercomparison study (HYDROCOIN): Level 1-code verification

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1988-03-01

    HYDROCOIN is an international study for examining ground-water flow modeling strategies and their influence on safety assessments of geologic repositories for nuclear waste. This report summarizes only the combined NRC project temas' simulation efforts on the computer code bench-marking problems. The codes used to simulate thesee seven problems were SWIFT II, FEMWATER, UNSAT2M USGS-3D, AND TOUGH. In general, linear problems involving scalars such as hydraulic head were accurately simulated by both finite-difference and finite-element solution algorithms. Both types of codes produced accurate results even for complex geometrics such as intersecting fractures. Difficulties were encountered in solving problems that invovled nonlinear effects such as density-driven flow and unsaturated flow. In order to fully evaluate the accuracy of these codes, post-processing of results using paricle tracking algorithms and calculating fluxes were examined. This proved very valuable by uncovering disagreements among code results even through the hydraulic-head solutions had been in agreement. 9 refs., 111 figs., 6 tabs.

  19. North Atlantic Oscillation and pollutants variability in Europe: model analysis and measurements intercomparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pausata, F.; Pozzoli, L.; Van Dingenen, R.; Vignati, E.; Cavalli, F.; Dentener, F. J.

    2013-12-01

    Ozone pollution and particulate matter (PM) represent a serious health and environmental problem. While ozone pollution is mostly produced by photochemistry in summer, PM is of main concern during winter. Both pollutants can be influenced nt only by local scale processes but also by long range transport driven by the atmospheric circulation and stratospheric ozone intrusions. We analyze the role of large scale atmospheric circulation variability in the North Atlantic basin in determining surface ozone and PM concentrations over Europe. Here, we show, using ground station measurements and a coupled atmosphere-chemistry model simulation for the period 1980-2005, that with regard to ozone the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) does affect surface ozone concentrations - on a monthly timescale, over 10 ppbv in southwestern, central and northern Europe - during all seasons except fall. We find that the first Principal Component, computed from the time variation of the sea level pressure (SLP) field, detects the atmosphere circulation/ozone relationship not only in winter and spring but also during summer, when the atmospheric circulation weakens and regional photochemical processes peak. Given the NAO forecasting skill at intraseasonal time scale, the first Principal Component of the SLP field could be used as an indicator to identify areas more exposed to forthcoming ozone pollution events. Finally, our results suggest that the increasing baseline ozone in western and northern Europe during the 1990s could be related to the prevailing positive phase of the NAO in that period. With regard to PM, our study shows that in winter the NAO modulates surface PM concentrations accounting in average up to 30% of the total PM variability. During positive NAO phases, positive PM anomalies occur over southern Europe, and negative anomalies in central-northern Europe. A positve shift of the NAO mean states, hence, leads to an increase in cardiac and resipratory morbidity related to PM

  20. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP): A Model-Data Comparison System for Evaluation of Coupled Biosphere-Atmosphere Models

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, Jim; Thornton, Peter E; Mahowald, Natalie; Bonan, Gordon; Running, Steven; Fung, Inez

    2009-01-01

    The need to capture important climate feebacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in new efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, now often referred to as Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results, suggesting that a more rigorous set of offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are warranted. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) provides a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). C-LAMP provides feedback to the modeling community regarding model improvements and to the measurement community by suggesting new observational campaigns. C-LAMP Experiment 1 consists of a set of uncoupled simulations of terrestrial carbon models specifically designed to examine the ability of the models to reproduce surface carbon and energy fluxes at multiple sites and to exhibit the influence of climate variability, prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), nitrogen (N) deposition, and land cover change on projections of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 20th century. Experiment 2 consists of partially coupled simulations of the terrestrial carbon model with an active atmosphere model exchanging energy and moisture fluxes. In all experiments, atmospheric CO{sub 2} follows the prescribed historical trajectory from C{sup 4}MIP. In Experiment 2, the atmosphere model is forced with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and corresponding sea ice concentrations from the Hadley Centre; prescribed CO{sub 2} is radiatively active; and land, fossil fuel, and ocean CO{sub 2} fluxes are advected by the model. Both sets of experiments

  1. Integration of agricultural and energy system models for biofuel assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper presents a coupled modeling framework to capture the dynamic linkages between agricultural and energy markets that have been enhanced through the expansion of biofuel production, as well as the environmental impacts resulting from this expansion. The framework incorpor...

  2. Evaluation and intercomparison of Ozone and PM10 simulations by several chemistry transport models over four European cities within the CityDelta project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vautard, R.; Builtjes, P. H. J.; Thunis, P.; Cuvelier, C.; Bedogni, M.; Bessagnet, B.; Honoré, C.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Pirovano, G.; Schaap, M.; Stern, R.; Tarrason, L.; Wind, P.

    The CityDelta project Cuvelier et al. [2006. CityDelta: a model intercomparison study to explore the impact of emission reductions in European cities in 2010. Atmospheric Environment] is designed to evaluate the air quality response of several emission abatement scenarios for 2010 at the scale of the European continent, and specifically in the areas where most people live: the cities. Before evaluating this response, the model simulations in a control case must be evaluated against observations in order to understand their main strengths and weaknesses. In this article six different models are used to simulate a full year (1999) of air quality pollutant concentrations over domains encompassing a large area around four major European cities: Berlin, Milan, Paris and Prague. Three models are used both at large-scale (typically 50 km) and small-scale resolution (5 km). The intercomparison of the simulation results for ozone and particles smaller than 10 microns (PM10) leads to the following conclusions: Models capture fairly well the mean, daily maxima and variability of ozone concentrations, as well as the time and intercity variability. However, a significant overestimation of ozone in city centres is found especially for large-scale models. PM10 simulation skill is generally poor, and large-scale models underestimate their mass. The difference between Milan (highly polluted) and the other cities is not reproduced. All models have difficulties in capturing the observed seasonal variations. The fine scale models show higher PM10 and lower ozone concentrations in urban areas, which are closer to the observations than are the large-scale models.

  3. Changes in Discharge in an Agricultural Watershed in Iowa: Modeling and Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Villarini, G.

    2014-12-01

    Our improved capability to adapt to future changes in discharge is unavoidably linked to our capability to predict the magnitude or at least the direction of these changes. The importance of improving discharge projections is particularly relevant in an agricultural state like Iowa. Iowa has been affected by a sequence of extreme events over the most recent years, with the flood events of 1993, 2008, 2010, 2013 and 2014 interrupted by the droughts of 2012 and summer 2013. It is clear that too much or too little water will have severe economic and societal impacts for this state, and the agricultural U.S. Midwest more generally. Therefore, being able to increase our confidence in the direction and magnitude of the projected changes in discharge (from low to high flow) will be of key importance for improving our mitigation and management strategies during both flooding and droughts. Here we focus on the Raccoon River at Van Meter, Iowa, and use a statistical approach to examine projected changes in discharge. We build on statistical models using rainfall and harvested corn and soybean acreage to explain the observed stream flow variability. We then use projections of these two predictors to examine the projected discharge response. Results are based on seven state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) produced under the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). We find that there is not a strong signal of change in the discharge projections under the RCP 4.5. On the other hand, the results for the RCP 8.5 point to a stronger changing signal, in particular increasing trends in the upper part of the discharge distribution. Examination of two hypothetical agricultural scenarios indicates that these increasing trends could be potentially offset by decreasing the extent of the agricultural production. Finally, we discuss how to move forward with the concept of return period for engineering

  4. Developing a model policy on youth employment in agriculture.

    PubMed

    Miller, Mary E; Lee, Barbara C

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a model policy that agricultural employers could adopt specific to youth employment, including age-appropriate assignments, training needs for adolescent workers, ideal supervision, and mentoring by adult workers. Methods included discussions at a national conference of agricultural employers, a survey of employers' perspectives on young workers, forming a task force to draft a model policy, and finalizing the policy document. The process resulted in a template that can be used by agricultural employers for immediate adoption, or to be customized and adapted for their unique company. Given new trends in agriculture to use certification systems, safety audits, and voluntary safety standards in addition to the regulatory process, there is value in having a voluntary "best practice" model policy that can be adopted in settings where safeguarding young farm workers is a priority. PMID:24959757

  5. EURADOS intercomparison exercise on MC modelling for the in-vivo monitoring of AM-241 in skull phantoms (Part II and III).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vrba, Tomas; Broggio, David; Caldeira, Margarida; Capello, Kevin; Fantínová, Karin; Franck, Didier; Gómez-Ros, Jose Maria; Hunt, John; Kinase, Sakae; Leone, Debora; Lombardo, Pasquale Alessandro; Manohari, Murugan; Marzocchi, Olaf; Moraleda, Montserrat; Nogueira, Pedro; Ośko, Jakub; Arron, Shutt; Suhl, Soheigh; Takahashi, Masa; Teles, Pedro; Tremblay, Marilyn; Tymińska, Katarzyna; Lopez, Maria Antonia; Tanner, Rick

    2015-08-01

    An intercomparison on in-vivo monitoring for determination of Am-241 in three skull phantoms was launched by EURADOS in 2011. The project focused on measurement and estimation of the activity of Am-241 in the human skull. Three human skull phantoms of different complexity were used. A Monte Carlo (MC) intercomparison exercise with the voxel representations of the physical phantom was launched additionally in September of 2012. The main goals of the action were (1) to investigate the different methodologies for developing MC calibrations that might arise from a complex radiological assessment and (2) to compare individual approaches of the participating laboratories in order to determine international guidance for best practice. The MC exercise consisted of three tasks with increasing difficulty, in order to test the extent of skills needed by the participating laboratory. The first task was to simulate a given detector and a well-defined semi-skull phantom. The second and third tasks presented in this paper-introduced more complex simulations with individual geometry and real detector modelling. The paper provides an overview of the participant's results, analyses of the observed issues concerning tasks two and three, and a general evaluation of the whole project.

  6. Instrument intercomparisons and assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albritton, D. L.; Zander, R. J.; Farmer, C. B.; Hilsenrath, E.; Mankin, W. G.; Murcray, D. G.; Pollitt, S.; Robbins, D. E.; Roscoe, H.

    Over the past few years, several field campaigns were devoted to the goal of assessing instrument reliability, as opposed to solely obtaining data to answer a geophysical question. Some examples of the formal instrument intercomparisons that have occurred in the past decade and those that are planned for the very near future are listed chronologically. Balloon-borne techniques and instruments that address the height profiles of the trace species in the lower stratosphere are emphasized. Beginning with the most extensively studied trace constituent, the approach taken and the results obtained, are described. The current status of the measurement capabilities are summarized, and the needs for future intercomparisons and assessments are listed.

  7. Assessing radiation impact at a protected coastal sand dune site: an intercomparison of models for estimating the radiological exposure of non-human biota.

    PubMed

    Wood, Michael D; Beresford, Nicholas A; Barnett, Catherine L; Copplestone, David; Leah, Richard T

    2009-12-01

    This paper presents the application of three publicly available biota dose assessment models (the ERICA Tool, R&D128/SP1a and RESRAD-BIOTA) to an assessment of the Drigg coastal sand dunes. Using measured (90)Sr, (99)Tc, (137)Cs, (238)Pu, (239+240)Pu and (241)Am activity concentrations in sand dune soil, activity concentration and dose rate predictions are made for a range of organisms including amphibians, birds, invertebrates, mammals, reptiles, plants and fungi. Predicted biota activity concentrations are compared to measured data where available. The main source of variability in the model predictions is the transfer parameters used and it is concluded that developing the available transfer databases should be a focus of future research effort. The value of taking an informed user approach to investigate the way in which models may be expected to be applied in practice is highlighted and a strategy for the future development of intercomparison exercises is presented. PMID:19447531

  8. A process-based agricultural model for the irrigated agriculture sector in Alberta, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ammar, M. E.; Davies, E. G.

    2015-12-01

    Connections between land and water, irrigation, agricultural productivity and profitability, policy alternatives, and climate change and variability are complex, poorly understood, and unpredictable. Policy assessment for agriculture presents a large potential for development of broad-based simulation models that can aid assessment and quantification of policy alternatives over longer temporal scales. The Canadian irrigated agriculture sector is concentrated in Alberta, where it represents two thirds of the irrigated land-base in Canada and is the largest consumer of surface water. Despite interest in irrigation expansion, its potential in Alberta is uncertain given a constrained water supply, significant social and economic development and increasing demands for both land and water, and climate change. This paper therefore introduces a system dynamics model as a decision support tool to provide insights into irrigation expansion in Alberta, and into trade-offs and risks associated with that expansion. It is intended to be used by a wide variety of users including researchers, policy analysts and planners, and irrigation managers. A process-based cropping system approach is at the core of the model and uses a water-driven crop growth mechanism described by AquaCrop. The tool goes beyond a representation of crop phenology and cropping systems by permitting assessment and quantification of the broader, long-term consequences of agricultural policies for Alberta's irrigation sector. It also encourages collaboration and provides a degree of transparency that gives confidence in simulation results. The paper focuses on the agricultural component of the systems model, describing the process involved; soil water and nutrients balance, crop growth, and water, temperature, salinity, and nutrients stresses, and how other disciplines can be integrated to account for the effects of interactions and feedbacks in the whole system. In later stages, other components such as

  9. Probabilistic assessment of agricultural droughts using graphical models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramadas, Meenu; Govindaraju, Rao S.

    2015-07-01

    Agricultural droughts are often characterized by soil moisture in the root zone of the soil, but crop needs are rarely factored into the analysis. Since water needs vary with crops, agricultural drought incidences in a region can be characterized better if crop responses to soil water deficits are also accounted for in the drought index. This study investigates agricultural droughts driven by plant stress due to soil moisture deficits using crop stress functions available in the literature. Crop water stress is assumed to begin at the soil moisture level corresponding to incipient stomatal closure, and reaches its maximum at the crop's wilting point. Using available location-specific crop acreage data, a weighted crop water stress function is computed. A new probabilistic agricultural drought index is then developed within a hidden Markov model (HMM) framework that provides model uncertainty in drought classification and accounts for time dependence between drought states. The proposed index allows probabilistic classification of the drought states and takes due cognizance of the stress experienced by the crop due to soil moisture deficit. The capabilities of HMM model formulations for assessing agricultural droughts are compared to those of current drought indices such as standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (SC-PDSI). The HMM model identified critical drought events and several drought occurrences that are not detected by either SPEI or SC-PDSI, and shows promise as a tool for agricultural drought studies.

  10. Using the CMIP5 Model Intercomparison, a Study on Sensitivity of Global and Regional Terrestrial Carbon Storage to the Direct CO2 Effect and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, J.; Dan, L.

    2014-12-01

    Global and regional land carbon storage has been significantly affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. Based on fully coupled climate-carbon-cycle simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigate sensitivities of land carbon storage to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change over the world and 21 regions during the 130 years. Overall, the simulations suggest that consistently spatial positive effects of the increasing CO2 concentrations on land carbon storage are expressed with a multi-model averaged value of 1.04PgC per ppm. The stronger positive values are mainly located in the broad areas of temperate and tropical forest, especially in Amazon basin and western Africa. However, large heterogeneity distributed for sensitivities of land carbon storage to climate change. Climate change causes decrease in land carbon storage in most tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, decrease in soil moisture (MRSO) and enhanced drought somewhat contribute to such a decrease accompanied with rising temperature. Conversely, an increase in land carbon storage has been observed in high latitude and altitude regions (e.g., northern Asia and Tibet). The model simulations also suggest that global negative impacts of climate change on land carbon storage are predominantly attributed to decrease in land carbon storage in tropics. Although current warming can lead to an increase in land storage of high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere due to elevated vegetation growth, a risk of exacerbated future climate change may be induced due to release of carbon from tropics. Figure CaptionsFigure 1. Spatial distribution in sensitivity of terrestrial carbon storage to upward atmospheric CO2 concentration simulated from six the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models, units: gC m-2 ppm-1. Figure 2. Same as Figure 9, but to the warming (gC m-2 K-1)

  11. Modelling pollination services across agricultural landscapes

    PubMed Central

    Lonsdorf, Eric; Kremen, Claire; Ricketts, Taylor; Winfree, Rachael; Williams, Neal; Greenleaf, Sarah

    2009-01-01

    Background and Aims Crop pollination by bees and other animals is an essential ecosystem service. Ensuring the maintenance of the service requires a full understanding of the contributions of landscape elements to pollinator populations and crop pollination. Here, the first quantitative model that predicts pollinator abundance on a landscape is described and tested. Methods Using information on pollinator nesting resources, floral resources and foraging distances, the model predicts the relative abundance of pollinators within nesting habitats. From these nesting areas, it then predicts relative abundances of pollinators on the farms requiring pollination services. Model outputs are compared with data from coffee in Costa Rica, watermelon and sunflower in California and watermelon in New Jersey–Pennsylvania (NJPA). Key Results Results from Costa Rica and California, comparing field estimates of pollinator abundance, richness or services with model estimates, are encouraging, explaining up to 80 % of variance among farms. However, the model did not predict observed pollinator abundances on NJPA, so continued model improvement and testing are necessary. The inability of the model to predict pollinator abundances in the NJPA landscape may be due to not accounting for fine-scale floral and nesting resources within the landscapes surrounding farms, rather than the logic of our model. Conclusions The importance of fine-scale resources for pollinator service delivery was supported by sensitivity analyses indicating that the model's predictions depend largely on estimates of nesting and floral resources within crops. Despite the need for more research at the finer-scale, the approach fills an important gap by providing quantitative and mechanistic model from which to evaluate policy decisions and develop land-use plans that promote pollination conservation and service delivery. PMID:19324897

  12. APPLICATIONS OF AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM MODELS IN ASSESSING AND MANAGING CONTAMINATION OF THE SOIL-WATER-ATMOSPHERE CONTINUUM IN AGRICULTURE

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In the last three decades, there has been a growing public concern about the adverse effects of modern agriculture on environmental quality and soil-water resources. In the mid-1980's, the USDA, Agricultural Research Service (ARS) identified the need for models of whole agricultural systems that wi...

  13. Application of Agricultural System Models in Assessing and Managing Contamination of Soil-Water-Atmosphere Continuum in Agriculture

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In the last three decades, there has been a growing public concern about the adverse effects of modern agriculture on environmental quality and soil-water resources. In the mid-1980s, the USDA, Agricultural Research Service (ARS) identified the need for models of whole agricultural systems th...

  14. Plumbum contamination detecting model for agricultural soil using hyperspectral data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Xiangnan; Huang, Fang; Wang, Ping

    2008-10-01

    The issue of environmental pollution due to toxic heavy metals in agricultural land has caused worldwide growing concern in recent years. Being one of toxic heavy metals, the accumulation of Plumbum (Pb) may have negative effects on natural and agricultural vegetation growth, yield and quality. It can also constitute short-term and long-term health risks by entering the food chain. In this study, we analyze the relationships between physical and chemical characteristics, biological parameters of soil-vegetation system and hyperspectral spectrum responses systematically. The relation between hyperspectral data and the biological parameters of Pb polluted wheat canopy such as leaf pigments, leaf moisture, cell structure and leaf area index (LAI) are discussed. We detect the changes in the wheat biological parameters and spectral response associated with Pb concentration in soil. To reveal the impact mechanisms of Pb concentration on agricultural soil, six models including chlorophyll-leaf moisture model, chlorophyll-cell structure model, chlorophyll-LAI model, leaf moisture-cell structure model, leaf moisture-LAI model, cell structure- LAI model are explored. We find that changes in Pb concentration present various features in different models. Pb contamination in agricultural soil can be identified and assessed effectively while integrating the characteristics of those developed models.

  15. SOIL moisture data intercomparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kerr, Yann; Rodriguez-Frenandez, Nemesio; Al-Yaari, Amen; Parens, Marie; Molero, Beatriz; Mahmoodi, Ali; Mialon, Arnaud; Richaume, Philippe; Bindlish, Rajat; Mecklenburg, Susanne; Wigneron, Jean-Pierre

    2016-04-01

    The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity satellite (SMOS) was launched in November 2009 and started delivering data in January 2010. Subsequently, the satellite has been in operation for over 6 years while the retrieval algorithms from Level 1 to Level 2 underwent significant evolutions as knowledge improved. Other approaches for retrieval at Level 2 over land were also investigated while Level 3 and 4 were initiated. In this présentation these improvements are assessed by inter-comparisons of the current Level 2 (V620) against the previous version (V551) and new products either using neural networks or Level 3. In addition a global evaluation of different SMOS soil moisture (SM) products is performed comparing products with those of model simulations and other satellites (AMSR E/ AMSR2 and ASCAT). Finally, all products were evaluated against in situ measurements of soil moisture (SM). The study demonstrated that the V620 shows a significant improvement (including those at level1 improving level2)) with respect to the earlier version V551. Results also show that neural network based approaches can yield excellent results over areas where other products are poor. Finally, global comparison indicates that SMOS behaves very well when compared to other sensors/approaches and gives consistent results over all surfaces from very dry (African Sahel, Arizona), to wet (tropical rain forests). RFI (Radio Frequency Interference) is still an issue even though detection has been greatly improved while RFI sources in several areas of the world are significantly reduced. When compared to other satellite products, the analysis shows that SMOS achieves its expected goals and is globally consistent over different eco climate regions from low to high latitudes and throughout the seasons.

  16. Multi-model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation Historical and Projected Changes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lamarque, J.-F.; Dentener, F.; McConnell, J.; Ro, C.-U.; Shaw, M.; Vet, R.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Doherty, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, S. J.; Josse, B.; Lee, Y. H.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, D.; Shindell, D. T.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S.; Zeng, G.

    2013-01-01

    We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multi-model mean deposition of 50 Tg(N) yr1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice-core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double 2000 in some scenarios and reaching 1300 mg(N) m2 yr1 averaged over regional to continental scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, 3050 larger than the values in any region currently (2000). The new ACCMIP deposition dataset provides novel, consistent and evaluated global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

  17. Multi-model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation of Historical and Projected Future Changes

    SciTech Connect

    Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Dentener, Frank; McConnell, J.R.; Ro, C-U; Shaw, Mark; Vet, Robert; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Dalsoren, S.; Doherty, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, Steven J.; Josse, B.; Lee, Y. H.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, David; Shindell, Drew; Skeie, R. B.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S.; Zeng, G.; Curran, M.; Dahl-Jensen, D.; Das, S.; Fritzsche, D.; Nolan, M.

    2013-08-20

    We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States, but less so over Europe. This difference points towards misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice-core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double 2000 in some scenarios and reaching >1300 mgN/m2/yr averaged over regional to continental scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, ~30-50% larger than the values in any region currently (2000). Despite known issues, the new ACCMIP deposition dataset provides novel, consistent and evaluated global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

  18. Report on the 2-D Model Intercomparison Workshop held January 11-16, 1987 in Fort Myers Beach, Florida, chapter 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guthrie, Paul D.

    1989-01-01

    In the attempts to understand the processes which affect ozone in the stratosphere, and to predict future ozone levels, a variety of computer models were developed and employed. To oversimplify somewhat, the models range from 1-D models with intricately detailed photochemistry but only the crudest representation of transport, to 3-D general circulation models with intricately detailed dynamics and no photochemistry at all. Each of these has its appropriate uses. It was felt that there was much to be gained from intermediate models incorporating an extensive treatment of photochemistry with a dynamical framework which at least recognizes that atmospheric motions are advective as well as diffusive, and that both chemistry and dynamics are subject to latitudinal and seasonal variations. Thus the 2-D, zonally averaged models have begun to play a larger role in the last seven years, both in attempting to understand observed distributions of trace species and in attempting to assess the probable effects of antropogenic perturbations. There are many choices to be made in developing the model. It was the purpose of the 2-D model Intercomparison Workshop to permit discussion of the choices made and the behavior of the resulting models. The goal was not to identify a best set of choices, but rather to identify areas in which the models are sensitive to the choices made, and to develop a sense of where these models as a class do well or poorly in simulating the observed atmosphere.

  19. Modeling global distribution of agricultural insecticides in surface waters.

    PubMed

    Ippolito, Alessio; Kattwinkel, Mira; Rasmussen, Jes J; Schäfer, Ralf B; Fornaroli, Riccardo; Liess, Matthias

    2015-03-01

    Agricultural insecticides constitute a major driver of animal biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems. However, the global extent of their effects and the spatial extent of exposure remain largely unknown. We applied a spatially explicit model to estimate the potential for agricultural insecticide runoff into streams. Water bodies within 40% of the global land surface were at risk of insecticide runoff. We separated the influence of natural factors and variables under human control determining insecticide runoff. In the northern hemisphere, insecticide runoff presented a latitudinal gradient mainly driven by insecticide application rate; in the southern hemisphere, a combination of daily rainfall intensity, terrain slope, agricultural intensity and insecticide application rate determined the process. The model predicted the upper limit of observed insecticide exposure measured in water bodies (n = 82) in five different countries reasonably well. The study provides a global map of hotspots for insecticide contamination guiding future freshwater management and conservation efforts. PMID:25555206

  20. An inter-comparison of tidal solutions computed with a range of unstructured grid models of the Irish and Celtic Sea Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, John Eric; Hall, Philip; Davies, Alan M.

    2009-12-01

    Three finite element codes, namely TELEMAC, ADCIRC and QUODDY, are used to compute the spatial distributions of the M2, M4 and M6 components of the tide in the sea region off the west coast of Britain. This region is chosen because there is an accurate topographic dataset in the area and detailed open boundary M2 tidal forcing for driving the model. In addition, accurate solutions (based upon comparisons with extensive observations) using uniform grid finite difference models forced with these open boundary data exist for comparison purposes. By using boundary forcing, bottom topography and bottom drag coefficients identical to those used in an earlier finite difference model, there is no danger of comparing finite element solutions for “untuned unoptimised solutions” with those from a “tuned optimised solution”. In addition, by placing the open boundary in all finite element calculations at the same location as that used in a previous finite difference model and using the same M2 tidal boundary forcing and water depths, a like with like comparison of solutions derived with the various finite element models was possible. In addition, this open boundary was well removed from the shallow water region, namely the eastern Irish Sea where the higher harmonics were generated. Since these are not included in the open boundary, forcing their generation was determined by physical processes within the models. Consequently, an inter-comparison of these higher harmonics generated by the various finite element codes gives some indication of the degree of variability in the solution particularly in coastal regions from one finite element model to another. Initial calculations using high-resolution near-shore topography in the eastern Irish Sea and including “wetting and drying” showed that M2 tidal amplitudes and phases in the region computed with TELEMAC were in good agreement with observations. The ADCIRC code gave amplitudes about 30 cm lower and phases about 8

  1. Modeling seasonal snowpack evolution in the complex terrain and forested Colorado Headwaters region: A model intercomparison study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Fei; Barlage, Michael; Tewari, Mukul; Rasmussen, Roy; Jin, Jiming; Lettenmaier, Dennis; Livneh, Ben; Lin, Chiyu; Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo; Niu, Guo-Yue; Wen, Lijuan; Yang, Zong-Liang

    2014-12-01

    Correctly modeling snow is critical for climate models and for hydrologic applications. Snowpack simulated by six land surface models (LSM: Noah, Variable Infiltration Capacity, snow-atmosphere-soil transfer, Land Ecosystem-Atmosphere Feedback, Noah with Multiparameterization, and Community Land Model) were evaluated against 1 year snow water equivalent (SWE) data at 112 Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites in the Colorado River Headwaters region and 4 year flux tower data at two AmeriFlux sites. All models captured the main characteristics of the seasonal SWE evolution fairly well at 112 SNOTEL sites. No single model performed the best to capture the combined features of the peak SWE, the timing of peak SWE, and the length of snow season. Evaluating only simulated SWE is deceiving and does not reveal critical deficiencies in models, because the models could produce similar SWE for starkly different reasons. Sensitivity experiments revealed that the models responded differently to variations of forest coverage. The treatment of snow albedo and its cascading effects on surface energy deficit, surface temperature, stability correction, and turbulent fluxes was a major intermodel discrepancy. Six LSMs substantially overestimated (underestimated) radiative flux (heat flux), a crucial deficiency in representing winter land-atmosphere feedback in coupled weather and climate models. Results showed significant intermodel differences in snowmelt efficiency and sublimation efficiency, and models with high rate of snow accumulation and melt were able to reproduce the observed seasonal evolution of SWE. This study highlights that the parameterization of cascading effects of snow albedo and below-canopy turbulence and radiation transfer is critical not only for SWE simulation but also for correctly capturing the winter land-atmosphere interactions.

  2. Comparison of Global Model Results from the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) with Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) Manipulation Experiments

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, Jim; Fung, Inez; Thornton, Peter E; Covey, Curtis; Bonan, Gordon; Running, Steven; Norby, Richard J

    2008-01-01

    Free-Air CO{sub 2} Enrichment (FACE) manipulation experiments have been carried out at a handful of sites to gauge the response of the biosphere to significant increases in atmospheric [CO{sub 2}]. Early synthesis results from four temperate forest sites suggest that the response of net primary productivity (NPP) is conserved across a broad range of productivity with a stimulation at the median of 23 {+-} 2% when the surrounding air [CO{sub 2}] was raised to 550{approx}ppm. As a part of the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP), a community-based model-data comparison activity, the authors have performed a global FACE modeling experiment using two terrestrial biogeochemistry modules, CLM3-CASA and CLM3-CN, coupled to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM). The two models were forced with an improved NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set and reconstructed atmospheric [CO{sub 2}] and N deposition data through 1997. At the beginning of 1997 in the transient simulations, global atmospheric [CO{sub 2}] was abruptly raised to 550{approx}ppm, the target value used at the FACE sites. In the control runs, [CO{sub 2}] continued to rise following observations until 2004, after which it was held constant out to year 2100. In both simulations, the last 25 years of reanalysis forcing and a constant N deposition were applied after year 2004. Across all forest biomes, the NPP responses from both models are weaker than those reported for the four FACE sites. Moreover, model responses vary widely geographically with a decreasing trend of NPP increases from 40{sup o}N to 70{sup o}N. For CLM3-CASA, the largest responses occur in arid regions of western North America and central Asia, suggesting that responses are most strongly influenced by increased water use efficiency for this model. CLM3-CN exhibits consistently weaker responses than CLM3-CASA' with the strongest responses in central Asia, but significantly constrained by N

  3. Intercomparison of model simulations of mixed-phase clouds observed during the ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment. I: Single layer cloud

    SciTech Connect

    Klein, Stephen A.; McCoy, Renata; Morrison, H.; Ackerman, Andrew; Avramov, Alexander; DeBoer, GIJS; Chen, Mingxuan; Cole, Jason N.; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Falk, Michael; Foster, Mike; Fridlind, Ann; Golaz, Jean-Christophe; Hashino, Tempei; Harrington, Jerry Y.; Hoose, Corinna; Khairoutdinov, Marat; Larson, Vince; Liu, Xiaohong; Luo, Yali; McFarquhar, Greg; Menon, Surabi; Neggers, Roel; Park, Sungsu; Poellot, M. R.; Schmidt, Jerome M.; Sednev, Igor; Shipway, Ben; Shupe, Matthew D.; Spangenberg, D.; Sud, Yogesh; Turner, David D.; Veron, Dana; Von Salzen, Knut; Walker, Gregory K.; Wang, Zhien; Wolf, Audrey; Xie, Shaocheng; Xu, Kuan-Man; Yang, Fanglin; Zhang, G.

    2009-05-21

    Results are presented from an intercomparison of single-column and cloud-resolving model simulations of a cold-air outbreak mixed-phase stratocumulus cloud observed during the ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment. The observed cloud occurred in a well-mixed boundary layer with a cloud top temperature of –15°C. While the cloud was water dominated, ice precipitation appears to have lowered the liquid water path to about 2/3 of the adiabatic value. The simulations, which were performed by seventeen single column and nine cloud-resolving models, generally underestimate the liquid water path with the median single-column and cloud-resolving model liquid water path a factor of 3 smaller than observed. While the simulated ice water path is in general agreement with the observed values, results from a sensitivity study in which models removed ice microphysics indicate that in many models the interaction between liquid and ice phase microphysics is responsible for the strong model underestimate of liquid water path. Although no single factor is found to lead to a good simulation, these results emphasize the need for care in the model treatment of mixed-phase microphysics. This case study, which has been well observed from both aircraft and ground-based remote sensors, could be benchmark for model simulations of mixed-phase clouds.

  4. Wisconsin's Model Academic Standards for Agricultural Education. Bulletin No. 9003.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fortier, John D.; Albrecht, Bryan D.; Grady, Susan M.; Gagnon, Dean P.; Wendt, Sharon, W.

    These model academic standards for agricultural education in Wisconsin represent the work of a task force of educators, parents, and business people with input from the public. The introductory section of this bulletin defines the academic standards and discusses developing the standards, using the standards, relating the standards to all…

  5. Agricultural Model for the Nile Basin Decision Support System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Bolt, Frank; Seid, Abdulkarim

    2014-05-01

    To analyze options for increasing food supply in the Nile basin the Nile Agricultural Model (AM) was developed. The AM includes state-of-the-art descriptions of biophysical, hydrological and economic processes and realizes a coherent and consistent integration of hydrology, agronomy and economics. The AM covers both the agro-ecological domain (water, crop productivity) and the economic domain (food supply, demand, and trade) and allows to evaluate the macro-economic and hydrological impacts of scenarios for agricultural development. Starting with the hydrological information from the NileBasin-DSS the AM calculates the available water for agriculture, the crop production and irrigation requirements with the FAO-model AquaCrop. With the global commodity trade model MAGNET scenarios for land development and conversion are evaluated. The AM predicts consequences for trade, food security and development based on soil and water availability, crop allocation, food demand and food policy. The model will be used as a decision support tool to contribute to more productive and sustainable agriculture in individual Nile countries and the whole region.

  6. MODEL TESTING IN PRECISION AGRICULTURE – COMPARING MEASURES OF VARIATION

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Statistical tests that compare means are widely known and used; tests that compare variation are less so. However, evaluating performance of a simulation model over a range of results requires both. In precision agriculture, comparing simulated results to measured results is usually done using linea...

  7. Collaboration between nurses and agricultural teachers to prevent adolescent agricultural injuries: the Agricultural Disability Awareness and Risk Education Model.

    PubMed

    Reed, Deborah B; Kidd, Pamela S

    2004-01-01

    Nearly 2 million children live or work on America's farms and ranches. Despite the increasing mechanization of production agriculture in the United States, children still constitute a considerable portion of the work force on farms and ranches. When adjusted for actual work exposure time, adolescent injury rates on agricultural establishments surpass those of adults (Castillo, D. N., Landen, D. D., & Layne, L. A. (1994). American Journal of Public Health, 84, 646-649). This project, headed by two public health nurses, developed and tested an agricultural safety curriculum [Agricultural Disability Awareness and Risk Education (AgDARE)] for use in high school agriculture classes. Students who participated in AgDARE scored significantly higher in farm safety attitude and intent to change work behavior than the control group. School and public health nurses, working together with agriculture teachers, may make an effective team in reducing injuries among teen agricultural workers. PMID:15260837

  8. Harmonization and translation of crop modeling data to ensure interoperability

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP, www.agmip.org) seeks to improve the capability of ecophysiological and economic models to describe the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural systems. AgMIP protocols emphasize the use of multiple models; consequentl...

  9. SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fujiwara, M.; Long, C. S.

    2014-12-01

    The middle atmosphere and climate community use reanalyses widely to understand atmospheric processes and variability in the middle atmosphere, to validate climate models, and, potentially, for trend analysis. Yet different reanalyses give different results for the same diagnostic. There is thus a need for a coordinated reanalysis intercomparison project that shall start a comprehensive activity to compare all appropriate reanalysis data sets for key diagnostics to help understand the causes of differences and to use the results to provide guidance on appropriate usage of various reanalysis products in scientific studies. In addition, the reanalysis community will benefit from coordinated user feedback, which can lead to improvements in the next generation of reanalysis products. The Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) is a SPARC activity that was proposed in 2012 and approved in 2014. The goals of S-RIP are: (1) to create a communication platform between the SPARC community and the reanalysis centers; (2) to understand current reanalysis products and to contribute to future reanalysis improvements in the middle atmosphere region; and (3) to write up the results of the reanalysis intercomparison in peer reviewed papers and a SPARC report. The project duration is from 2013 to 2018. In the presentation, an overview of the project is made and some early intercomparison results are discussed.

  10. Modeling Sustainable Agricultural Residue Removal at the Subfield Scale

    SciTech Connect

    Muth, D.J.; McCorkle, D.S.; Koch, J.B.; Bryden, K.M.

    2012-05-02

    This study developed a computational strategy that utilizes data inputs from multiple spatial scales to investigate how variability within individual fields can impact sustainable residue removal for bioenergy production. Sustainable use of agricultural residues for bioenergy production requires consideration of the important role that residues play in limiting soil erosion and maintaining soil C, health, and productivity. Increased availability of subfield-scale data sets such as grain yield data, high-fidelity digital elevation models, and soil characteristic data provides an opportunity to investigate the impacts of subfield-scale variability on sustainable agricultural residue removal. Using three representative fields in Iowa, this study contrasted the results of current NRCS conservation management planning analysis with subfield-scale analysis for rake-and-bale removal of agricultural residue. The results of the comparison show that the field-average assumptions used in NRCS conservation management planning may lead to unsustainable residue removal decisions for significant portions of some fields. This highlights the need for additional research on subfield-scale sustainable agricultural residue removal including the development of real-time variable removal technologies for agricultural residue.

  11. Grounding-line migration in plan-view marine ice-sheet models: results of the ice2sea MISMIP3d intercomparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pattyn, Frank; Perichon, Laura; Durand, Gaël; Gagliardini, Olivier; Favier, Lionel; Hindmarsh, Richard; Zwinger, Thomas; Participants, Mismip3d

    2013-04-01

    Predictions of marine ice-sheet behaviour require models able to simulate grounding line migration. We present results of an intercomparison experiment for plan-view marine ice-sheet models. Verification is effected by comparison with approximate analytical solutions for flux across the grounding line using simplified geometrical configurations (no lateral variations, no buttressing effects from lateral drag). A unique steady state grounding line position exists for ice sheets on a downward sloping bed under those simplified conditions. Perturbation experiments specifying spatial (lateral) variation in basal sliding parameters permitted the evolution of curved grounding lines, generating buttressing effects. The experiments showed regions of compression and extensional flow across the grounding line, thereby invalidating the boundary layer theory. Models based on the shallow ice approximation, which neither resolve membrane stresses, nor reproduce the approximate analytical results unless appropriate parameterizations for ice flux are imposed at the grounding line, are invalid. Steady-state grounding line positions were found to be dependent on the level of physical model approximation. Models that only include membrane stresses result in ice sheets with a larger span than those that also incorporate vertical shearing at the grounding line, such as higher-order and full-Stokes models. From a numerical perspective, resolving grounding lines requires a sufficiently small grid size (

  12. Assessing hydrological model behaviors by intercomparison of the simulated stream flow compositions: case study in a steep forest watershed in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, J.-C.; Lee, T.-Y.; Lee, J.-Y.; Hsu, S.-C.; Kao, S.-J.; Chang, F.-J.

    2013-01-01

    The accurate stream flow composition simulated by different models is rarely discussed, and few studies addressed the model behaviors affected by the model structures. This study compared the simulated stream flow composition derived from two models, namely HBV and TOPMODEL. A total of 23 storms with a wide rainfall spectrum were utilized and independent geochemical data (to derive the stream composition using end-member mixing analysis, EMMA) were introduced. Results showed that both hydrological models generally perform stream discharge satisfactory in terms of the Nash efficiency coefficient, correlation coefficient, and discharge volume. However, the three simulated flows (surface flow, interflow, and base flow) derived from the two models were different with the change of storm intensity and duration. Both simulated surface flows showed the same patterns. The HBV simulated base flow dramatically increased with the increase of storm duration. However, the TOP-derived base flow remained stable. Meanwhile, the two models showed contrasting behaviors in the interflow. HBV prefers to generate less interflow but percolates more to the base flow to match the stream flow, which implies that this model might be suited for thin soil layer. The use of the models should consider more environmental background data into account. Compared with the EMMA-derived flows, both models showed a significant 2 to 4 h time lag, indicating that the base-flow responses were faster than the models represented. Our study suggested that model intercomparison under a wide spectrum of rainstorms and with independent validation data (geochemical data) is a good means of studying the model behaviors. Rethinking the characterization of the model structure and the watershed characteristics is necessary in selecting the more appropriate hydrological model.

  13. Short-term dispersal of Fukushima-derived radionuclides off Japan: modeling efforts and model-data intercomparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rypina, I. I.; Jayne, S. R.; Yoshida, S.; Macdonald, A. M.; Douglass, E.; Buesseler, K.

    2013-01-01

    The March of 2011 earthquake and tsunami that caused a loss of power at the Fukushima nuclear power plants (FNPP) resulted in emission of radioactive isotopes into the atmosphere and the ocean. In June of 2011, an international survey of various radionuclide isotopes, including 137Cs, was conducted in surface and subsurface waters off Japan. This paper presents the results of numerical simulations aimed at interpreting these observations, investigating the spread of Fukushima-derived radionuclides off the coast of Japan and into the greater Pacific Ocean, studying the dominant mechanisms governing this process, as well as estimating the total amount of radionuclides in discharged coolant waters and atmospheric airborne radionuclide fallout. The numerical simulations are based on two different ocean circulation models, one inferred from AVISO altimetry and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind stress, and the second generated numerically by the NCOM model. Our simulations determine that >95% of 137Cs remaining in the water within ~600 km of Fukushima, Japan in mid-June 2011 was due to the direct oceanic discharge. The estimated strength of the oceanic source is 16.2 ± 1.6 PBq, based on minimizing the model-data mismatch. We cannot make an accurate estimate for the atmospheric source strength since most of the fallout cesium would have moved out of the survey area by mid-June. The model explained several features of the observed 137Cs distribution. First, the absence of 137Cs at the southernmost stations is attributed to the Kuroshio Current acting as a transport barrier against the southward progression of 137Cs. Second, the largest 137Cs concentrations were associated with a semi-permanent eddy that entrained 137Cs-rich waters collecting and stirring them around the eddy perimeter. Finally, the intermediate 137Cs concentrations at the westernmost stations were attributed to younger, and therefore less Cs-rich, coolant waters that continued to leak from the reactor in June of

  14. EURADOS INTERCOMPARISON ON MEASUREMENTS AND MONTE CARLO MODELLING FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF AMERICIUM IN A USTUR LEG PHANTOM

    SciTech Connect

    Lopez, M. A.; Broggio, D.; Capello, K.; Cardenas-Mendez, E.; El-Faramawy, N.; Franck, D.; James, Anthony C.; Kramer, Gary H.; Lacerenza, G.; Lynch, Timothy P.; Navarro, J. F.; Navarro, T.; Perez, B.; Ruhm, W.; Tolmachev, Sergei Y.; Weitzenegger, E.

    2011-03-01

    United States Transuranium and Uranium Registries (USTUR) Case 0102 was the first whole-body donation to the USTUR (1979), of a worker affected by a substantial accidental 241Am intake(1). Half of this man’s skeleton, encased in tissue-quivalent plastic, provides a unique human ‘phantom’ for calibrating in vivo counting systems. In this case, the 241Am skeletal activity was measured 25 y after the intake. Approximately 82 % of the 241Am remaining in the body was found in the bones and teeth. The241Am activity concentration throughout the skeleton (in all types of bone) was fairly uniform(2). A protocol has been proposed by a group of in vivo laboratories from Europe [CIEMAT-Spain, IRSN-France and Helmholtz Zentrum Mu¨nchen (HMGU)-Germany] and Canada (HML) participating in this DOS/USTUR intercomparison. The focus areas for the study included: (1) the efficiency pattern along the leg phantom using Germanium detectors (experimental and computational), (2) the comparison of Monte Carlo (MC) results with experimental values in counting efficiency data and (3) the inflence of americium distribution in the bone material (volume or surface).

  15. Agrochemical fate models applied in agricultural areas from Colombia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia-Santos, Glenda; Yang, Jing; Andreoli, Romano; Binder, Claudia

    2010-05-01

    The misuse application of pesticides in mainly agricultural catchments can lead to severe problems for humans and environment. Especially in developing countries where there is often found overuse of agrochemicals and incipient or lack of water quality monitoring at local and regional levels, models are needed for decision making and hot spots identification. However, the complexity of the water cycle contrasts strongly with the scarce data availability, limiting the number of analysis, techniques, and models available to researchers. Therefore there is a strong need for model simplification able to appropriate model complexity and still represent the processes. We have developed a new model so-called Westpa-Pest to improve water quality management of an agricultural catchment located in the highlands of Colombia. Westpa-Pest is based on the fully distributed hydrologic model Wetspa and a fate pesticide module. We have applied a multi-criteria analysis for model selection under the conditions and data availability found in the region and compared with the new developed Westpa-Pest model. Furthermore, both models were empirically calibrated and validated. The following questions were addressed i) what are the strengths and weaknesses of the models?, ii) which are the most sensitive parameters of each model?, iii) what happens with uncertainties in soil parameters?, and iv) how sensitive are the transfer coefficients?

  16. Short-term dispersal of Fukushima-derived radionuclides off Japan: modeling efforts and model-data intercomparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rypina, I. I.; Jayne, S. R.; Yoshida, S.; Macdonald, A. M.; Douglass, E.; Buesseler, K.

    2013-07-01

    The Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami that caused a loss of power at the Fukushima nuclear power plants (FNPP) resulted in emission of radioactive isotopes into the atmosphere and the ocean. In June of 2011, an international survey measuring a variety of radionuclide isotopes, including 137Cs, was conducted in surface and subsurface waters off Japan. This paper presents the results of numerical simulations specifically aimed at interpreting these observations and investigating the spread of Fukushima-derived radionuclides off the coast of Japan and into the greater Pacific Ocean. Together, the simulations and observations allow us to study the dominant mechanisms governing this process, and to estimate the total amount of radionuclides in discharged coolant waters and atmospheric airborne radionuclide fallout. The numerical simulations are based on two different ocean circulation models, one inferred from AVISO altimetry and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind stress, and the second generated numerically by the NCOM model. Our simulations determine that > 95% of 137Cs remaining in the water within ~600 km of Fukushima, Japan in mid-June 2011 was due to the direct oceanic discharge. The estimated strength of the oceanic source is 16.2 ± 1.6 PBq, based on minimizing the model-data mismatch. We cannot make an accurate estimate for the atmospheric source strength since most of the fallout cesium had left the survey area by mid-June. The model explained several key features of the observed 137Cs distribution. First, the absence of 137Cs at the southernmost stations is attributed to the Kuroshio Current acting as a transport barrier against the southward progression of 137Cs. Second, the largest 137Cs concentrations were associated with a semi-permanent eddy that entrained 137Cs-rich waters, collecting and stirring them around the eddy perimeter. Finally, the intermediate 137Cs concentrations at the westernmost stations are attributed to younger, and therefore less Cs

  17. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    SciTech Connect

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-14

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters.

  18. Intercomparison of retrospective radon detectors.

    PubMed Central

    Field, R W; Steck, D J; Parkhurst, M A; Mahaffey, J A; Alavanja, M C

    1999-01-01

    We performed both a laboratory and a field intercomparison of two novel glass-based retrospective radon detectors previously used in major radon case-control studies performed in Missouri and Iowa. The new detectors estimate retrospective residential radon exposure from the accumulation of a long-lived radon decay product, (210)Pb, in glass. The detectors use track registration material in direct contact with glass surfaces to measure the alpha-emission of a (210)Pb-decay product, (210)Po. The detector's track density generation rate (tracks per square centimeter per hour) is proportional to the surface alpha-activity. In the absence of other strong sources of alpha-emission in the glass, the implanted surface alpha-activity should be proportional to the accumulated (210)Po, and hence to the cumulative radon gas exposure. The goals of the intercomparison were to a) perform collocated measurements using two different glass-based retrospective radon detectors in a controlled laboratory environment to compare their relative response to implanted polonium in the absence of environmental variation, b) perform collocated measurements using two different retrospective radon progeny detectors in a variety of residential settings to compare their detection of glass-implanted polonium activities, and c) examine the correlation between track density rates and contemporary radon gas concentrations. The laboratory results suggested that the materials and methods used by the studies produced similar track densities in detectors exposed to the same implanted (210)Po activity. The field phase of the intercomparison found excellent agreement between the track density rates for the two types of retrospective detectors. The correlation between the track density rates and direct contemporary radon concentration measurements was relatively high, considering that no adjustments were performed to account for either the residential depositional environment or glass surface type

  19. Evaluating climate change impacts and adaptation options for agriculture in West Africa: a multi-model comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sultan, B.; Lobell, D. B.; Biasutti, M.; Guan, K.; Roudier, P.; Piani, C.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is likely to stress food production in many parts of the developing world over the next few decades. In areas such as West Africa, where poor communities are highly dependent on the direct use of local natural resources, the effects of climate change on food security could be particularly devastating. Given these concerns, there is great interest in identifying and investing in technologies or practices that could help farmers adapt to climate variability and change. Recent studies found a robust agreement across the various climate models of the IPCC Coupled Models Inter-comparison Program ensemble on the seasonal distribution of Sahel rainfall changes (with a drying of the early season and positive rainfall anomaly at the end) in contrast with a large uncertainty for summertime rainfall totals. These changes will therefore certainly impact agriculture strategy (selection of new cultivars, later sowing) and output. This study estimates such impacts by using a series of climate scenarios as input for two crop models for multiple locations within West Africa. Simulations are run for the two major crops in the region - sorghum and millets. Building on the above simulations, we then simulate different scenarios of adaptation that could be used to cope with climate changes.

  20. Intercomparison of model simulations of mixed-phase clouds observed during the ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment. Part I: Single layer cloud

    SciTech Connect

    Klein, S A; McCoy, R B; Morrison, H; Ackerman, A; Avramov, A; deBoer, G; Chen, M; Cole, J; DelGenio, A; Golaz, J; Hashino, T; Harrington, J; Hoose, C; Khairoutdinov, M; Larson, V; Liu, X; Luo, Y; McFarquhar, G; Menon, S; Neggers, R; Park, S; Poellot, M; von Salzen, K; Schmidt, J; Sednev, I; Shipway, B; Shupe, M; Spangenberg, D; Sud, Y; Turner, D; Veron, D; Falk, M; Foster, M; Fridlind, A; Walker, G; Wang, Z; Wolf, A; Xie, S; Xu, K; Yang, F; Zhang, G

    2008-02-27

    Results are presented from an intercomparison of single-column and cloud-resolving model simulations of a cold-air outbreak mixed-phase stratocumulus cloud observed during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program's Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment. The observed cloud occurred in a well-mixed boundary layer with a cloud top temperature of -15 C. The observed liquid water path of around 160 g m{sup -2} was about two-thirds of the adiabatic value and much greater than the mass of ice crystal precipitation which when integrated from the surface to cloud top was around 15 g m{sup -2}. The simulations were performed by seventeen single-column models (SCMs) and nine cloud-resolving models (CRMs). While the simulated ice water path is generally consistent with the observed values, the median SCM and CRM liquid water path is a factor of three smaller than observed. Results from a sensitivity study in which models removed ice microphysics indicate that in many models the interaction between liquid and ice-phase microphysics is responsible for the large model underestimate of liquid water path. Despite this general underestimate, the simulated liquid and ice water paths of several models are consistent with the observed values. Furthermore, there is some evidence that models with more sophisticated microphysics simulate liquid and ice water paths that are in better agreement with the observed values, although considerable scatter is also present. Although no single factor guarantees a good simulation, these results emphasize the need for improvement in the model representation of mixed-phase microphysics. This case study, which has been well observed from both aircraft and ground-based remote sensors, could be a benchmark for model simulations of mixed-phase clouds.

  1. Evaluation of Preindustrial to Present-day Black Carbon and its Albedo Forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, Y. H.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Flanner, M. G.; Jiao, C.; Shindell, Drew; Berntsen, T.; Bisiauxs, M.; Cao, J.; Collins, W. J.; Curran, M.; Edwards, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, Steven J.; Horowitz, L.; McConnell, J.R.; Ming, J.; Myhre, G.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, Vaishali; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R. B.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Thevenon, F.; Xu, B.; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2013-03-05

    As a part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against the observations including 12 ice core records, a long-term surface mass concentrations and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using the NCAR Community Land and Sea-Ice model 4 with prescribed meteorology from 1996-2000, which includes the SNICAR BC-snow model. We evaluated the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations to using recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to the differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology among models; 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However,models agree well on 2.5~3 times increase in the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day, which matches with the 2.5 times increase in BC emissions. We find a large model diversity at both NH and SH high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Jungfrauch and Ispra. However, the models fail to capture the Arctic BC seasonality due tosevere underestimations during winter and spring. Compared to recent snowpack measurements, the simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2-3 of observations except for Greenland and Arctic Ocean. However, model and observation differ widely due to missing interannual variations in emissions and possibly due to the choice of the prescribed meteorology period (i.e., 1996-2000).

  2. Modeling Halophytic Plants in APEX for Sustainable Water and Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeRuyter, T.; Saito, L.; Nowak, B.; Rossi, C.; Toderich, K.

    2013-12-01

    A major problem for irrigated agricultural production is soil salinization, which can occur naturally or can be human-induced. Human-induced, or secondary salinization, is particularly a problem in arid and semi-arid regions, especially in irrigated areas. Irrigated land has more than twice the production of rainfed land, and accounts for about one third of the world's food, but nearly 20% of irrigated lands are salt-affected. Many farmers worldwide currently seasonally leach their land to reduce the soil salt content. These practices, however, create further problems such as a raised groundwater table, and salt, fertilizer, and pesticide pollution of nearby lakes and groundwater. In Uzbekistan, a combination of these management practices and a propensity to cultivate 'thirsty' crops such as cotton has also contributed to the Aral Sea shrinking nearly 90% by volume since the 1950s. Most common agricultural crops are glycophytes that have reduced yields when subjected to salt-stress. Some plants, however, are known as halophytic or 'salt-loving' plants and are capable of completing their life-cycle in higher saline soil or water environments. Halophytes may be useful for human consumption, livestock fodder, or biofuel, and may also be able to reduce or maintain salt levels in soil and water. To assess the potential for these halophytes to assist with salinity management, we are developing a model that is capable of tracking salinity under different management practices in agricultural environments. This model is interdisciplinary as it combines fields such as plant ecology, hydrology, and soil science. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) model, Agricultural Policy/Environmental Extender (APEX), is being augmented with a salinity module that tracks salinity as separate ions across the soil-plant-water interface. The halophytes Atriplex nitens, Climacoptera lanata, and Salicornia europaea are being parameterized and added into the APEX model database. Field sites

  3. Intercomparison of model simulations of mixed-phase clouds observed during the ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment. Part I: Single layer cloud

    SciTech Connect

    Klein, Stephen A.; McCoy, Renata B.; Morrison, Hugh; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Avramov, Alexander; de Boer, Gijs; Chen, Mingxuan; Cole, Jason N.S.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Falk, Michael; Foster, Michael J.; Fridlind, Ann; Golaz, Jean-Christophe; Hashino, Tempei; Harrington, Jerry Y.; Hoose, Corinna; Khairoutdinov, Marat F.; Larson, Vincent E.; Liu, Xiaohong; Luo, Yali; McFarquhar, Greg M.; Menon, Surabi; Neggers, Roel A. J.; Park, Sungsu; Poellot, Michael R.; Schmidt, Jerome M.; Sednev, Igor; Shipway, Ben J.; Shupe, Matthew D.; Spangenberg, Douglas A.; Sud, Yogesh C.; Turner, David D.; Veron, Dana E.; von Salzen, Knut; Walker, Gregory K.; Wang, Zhien; Wolf, Audrey B.; Xie, Shaocheng; Xu, Kuan-Man; Yang, Fanglin; Zhang, Gong

    2009-02-02

    Results are presented from an intercomparison of single-column and cloud-resolving model simulations of a cold-air outbreak mixed-phase stratocumulus cloud observed during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program's Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment. The observed cloud occurred in a well-mixed boundary layer with a cloud top temperature of -15 C. The observed average liquid water path of around 160 g m{sup -2} was about two-thirds of the adiabatic value and much greater than the average mass of ice crystal precipitation which when integrated from the surface to cloud top was around 15 g m{sup -2}. The simulations were performed by seventeen single-column models (SCMs) and nine cloud-resolving models (CRMs). While the simulated ice water path is generally consistent with the observed values, the median SCM and CRM liquid water path is a factor of three smaller than observed. Results from a sensitivity study in which models removed ice microphysics suggest that in many models the interaction between liquid and ice-phase microphysics is responsible for the large model underestimate of liquid water path. Despite this general underestimate, the simulated liquid and ice water paths of several models are consistent with the observed values. Furthermore, there is evidence that models with more sophisticated microphysics simulate liquid and ice water paths that are in better agreement with the observed values, although considerable scatter is also present. Although no single factor guarantees a good simulation, these results emphasize the need for improvement in the model representation of mixed-phase microphysics.

  4. Urban Agriculture Programs on the Rise: Agriculture Education Model Can Reach Students Other Classes Leave Behind

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fritsch, Julie M.

    2013-01-01

    Agricultural education begins with hands-on classroom and laboratory instruction. Because agriculture is such a broad topic, schools typically tailor agriculture class offerings to match the interests of the student population, needs of nearby businesses and industry, or topics relevant to their state's standard assessments. Within most…

  5. Simulating the Antarctic ice sheet in the late-Pliocene warm period: PLISMIP-ANT, an ice-sheet model intercomparison project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Boer, B.; Dolan, A. M.; Bernales, J.; Gasson, E.; Goelzer, H.; Golledge, N. R.; Sutter, J.; Huybrechts, P.; Lohmann, G.; Rogozhina, I.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Saito, F.; van de Wal, R. S. W.

    2015-05-01

    In the context of future climate change, understanding the nature and behaviour of ice sheets during warm intervals in Earth history is of fundamental importance. The late Pliocene warm period (also known as the PRISM interval: 3.264 to 3.025 million years before present) can serve as a potential analogue for projected future climates. Although Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained, a significant contribution to sea-level rise should be expected from both the Greenland ice sheet and the West and East Antarctic ice sheets based on palaeo sea-level reconstructions. Here, we present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an international Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP-ANT). For the experiments, ice-sheet models including the shallow ice and shelf approximations have been used to simulate the complete Antarctic domain (including grounded and floating ice). We compare the performance of six existing numerical ice-sheet models in simulating modern control and Pliocene ice sheets by a suite of five sensitivity experiments. We include an overview of the different ice-sheet models used and how specific model configurations influence the resulting Pliocene Antarctic ice sheet. The six ice-sheet models simulate a comparable present-day ice sheet, considering the models are set up with their own parameter settings. For the Pliocene, the results demonstrate the difficulty of all six models used here to simulate a significant retreat or re-advance of the East Antarctic ice grounding line, which is thought to have happened during the Pliocene for the Wilkes and Aurora basins. The specific sea-level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet at this point cannot be conclusively determined, whereas improved grounding line physics could be essential for a correct representation of the migration of the grounding-line of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene.

  6. Intercomparison of model simulations of mixed-phase clouds observed during the ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment. II: Multi layered cloud

    SciTech Connect

    Morrison, H.; McCoy, Renata; Klein, Stephen A.; Xie, Shaocheng; Luo, Yali; Avramov, Alexander; Chen, Mingxuan; Cole, Jason N.; Falk, Michael; Foster, Mike; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Harrington, Jerry Y.; Hoose, Corinna; Khrairoutdinov, Marat; Larson, Vince; Liu, Xiaohong; McFarquhar, Greg; Poellot, M. R.; Von Salzen, Knut; Shipway, Ben; Shupe, Matthew D.; Sud, Yogesh C.; Turner, David D.; Veron, Dana; Walker, Gregory K.; Wang, Zhien; Wolf, Audrey; Xu, Kuan-Man; Yang, Fanglin; Zhang, G.

    2009-05-21

    Results are presented from an intercomparison of single-column and cloud resolving model simulations of a deep, multi-layered, mixed-phase cloud system observed during the ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment. This cloud system was associated with strong surface turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes as cold air flowed over the open Arctic Ocean, combined with a low pressure system that supplied moisture at mid-level. The simulations, performed by 13 single-column and 4 cloud-resolving models, generally overestimate the liquid water path and strongly underestimate the ice water path, although there is a large spread among the models. This finding is in contrast with results for the single-layer, low-level mixed-phase stratocumulus case in Part I of this study, as well as previous studies of shallow mixed-phase Arctic clouds, that showed an underprediction of liquid water path. The overestimate of liquid water path and underestimate of ice water path occur primarily when deeper mixed-phase clouds extending into the mid-troposphere were observed. These results suggest important differences in the ability of models to simulate Arctic mixed-phase clouds that are deep and multi-layered versus shallow and single-layered. In general, the cloud-resolving models and models with a more sophisticated, two-moment treatment of the cloud microphysics produce a somewhat smaller liquid water path that is closer to observations. The cloud-resolving models also tend to produce a larger cloud fraction than the single column models. The liquid water path and especially the cloud fraction have a large impact on the cloud radiative forcing at the surface, which is dominated by the longwave flux for this case.

  7. Assessing and modelling ecohydrologic processes at the agricultural field scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basso, Bruno

    2015-04-01

    One of the primary goals of agricultural management is to increase the amount of crop produced per unit of fertilizer and water used. World record corn yields demonstrated that water use efficiency can increase fourfold with improved agronomic management and cultivars able to tolerate high densities. Planting crops with higher plant density can lead to significant yield increases, and increase plant transpiration vs. soil water evaporation. Precision agriculture technologies have been adopted for the last twenty years but seldom have the data collected been converted to information that led farmers to different agronomic management. These methods are intuitively appealing, but yield maps and other spatial layers of data need to be properly analyzed and interpreted to truly become valuable. Current agro-mechanic and geospatial technologies allow us to implement a spatially variable plan for agronomic inputs including seeding rate, cultivars, pesticides, herbicides, fertilizers, and water. Crop models are valuable tools to evaluate the impact of management strategies (e.g., cover crops, tile drains, and genetically-improved cultivars) on yield, soil carbon sequestration, leaching and greenhouse gas emissions. They can help farmers identify adaptation strategies to current and future climate conditions. In this paper I illustrate the key role that precision agriculture technologies (yield mapping technologies, within season soil and crop sensing), crop modeling and weather can play in dealing with the impact of climate variability on soil ecohydrologic processes. Case studies are presented to illustrate this concept.

  8. Intercomparison of model simulations of mixed-phase clouds observed during the ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment. Part II: Multi-layered cloud

    SciTech Connect

    Morrison, H; McCoy, R B; Klein, S A; Xie, S; Luo, Y; Avramov, A; Chen, M; Cole, J; Falk, M; Foster, M; Genio, A D; Harrington, J; Hoose, C; Khairoutdinov, M; Larson, V; Liu, X; McFarquhar, G; Poellot, M; Shipway, B; Shupe, M; Sud, Y; Turner, D; Veron, D; Walker, G; Wang, Z; Wolf, A; Xu, K; Yang, F; Zhang, G

    2008-02-27

    Results are presented from an intercomparison of single-column and cloud-resolving model simulations of a deep, multi-layered, mixed-phase cloud system observed during the ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment. This cloud system was associated with strong surface turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes as cold air flowed over the open Arctic Ocean, combined with a low pressure system that supplied moisture at mid-level. The simulations, performed by 13 single-column and 4 cloud-resolving models, generally overestimate the liquid water path and strongly underestimate the ice water path, although there is a large spread among the models. This finding is in contrast with results for the single-layer, low-level mixed-phase stratocumulus case in Part I of this study, as well as previous studies of shallow mixed-phase Arctic clouds, that showed an underprediction of liquid water path. The overestimate of liquid water path and underestimate of ice water path occur primarily when deeper mixed-phase clouds extending into the mid-troposphere were observed. These results suggest important differences in the ability of models to simulate Arctic mixed-phase clouds that are deep and multi-layered versus shallow and single-layered. In general, models with a more sophisticated, two-moment treatment of the cloud microphysics produce a somewhat smaller liquid water path that is closer to observations. The cloud-resolving models tend to produce a larger cloud fraction than the single-column models. The liquid water path and especially the cloud fraction have a large impact on the cloud radiative forcing at the surface, which is dominated by the longwave flux for this case.

  9. MODELING OF MACROSCALE AGRICULTURAL ELEMENTS IN PESTICIDE EXPOSURE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Yuma County, Arizona, is the site of year around agriculture. To understand the role of agricultural pesticide exposures experienced by children, urinary metabolite concentrations were compared with agricultural use of pesticides. The urinary metabolite and household data wer...

  10. Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark.

    PubMed

    Jensen, Trine S; Jensen, Jørgen D; Hasler, Berit; Illerup, Jytte B; Andersen, Frits M

    2007-01-01

    Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool to evaluate environmental consequences of policy initiatives. However, the usefulness of such models is often restricted by the fact that these models only include a limited set of environmental impacts, which are often energy-related emissions. In order to evaluate the development in the overall environmental pressure correctly, these model systems must be extended. In this article an integrated macroeconomic model system of the Danish economy with environmental modules of energy related emissions is extended to include the agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification. Next to the energy sector, the agricultural sector is the most important contributor to these environmental themes and subsequently the extended model complex calculates more than 99% of the contribution to both climate change and acidification. Environmental sub-models are developed for agriculture-related emissions of CH(4), N(2)O and NH(3). Agricultural emission sources related to the production specific activity variables are mapped and emission dependent parameters are identified in order to calculate emission coefficients. The emission coefficients are linked to the economic activity variables of the Danish agricultural production. The model system is demonstrated by projections of agriculture-related emissions in Denmark under two alternative sets of assumptions: a baseline projection of the general economic development and a policy scenario for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector. PMID:16549237

  11. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  12. Importance of incorporating agriculture in conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Boer-Euser, Tanja; Hrachowitz, Markus; Winsemius, Hessel; Savenije, Hubert

    2016-04-01

    Incorporating spatially variable information is a frequently discussed option to increase the performance of (semi-)distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff models. One of the methods to do this is by using this spatially variable information to delineate Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) within a catchment. In large parts of Europe the original forested land cover is replaced by an agricultural land cover. This change in land cover probably affects the dominant runoff processes in the area, for example by increasing the Hortonian overland flow component, especially on the flatter and higher elevated parts of the catchment. A change in runoff processes implies a change in HRUs as well. A previous version of our model distinguished wetlands (areas close to the stream) from the remainder of the catchment. However, this configuration was not able to reproduce all fast runoff processes, both in summer as in winter. Therefore, this study tests whether the reproduction of fast runoff processes can be improved by incorporating a HRU which explicitly accounts for the effect of agriculture. A case study is carried out in the Ourthe catchment in Belgium. For this case study the relevance of different process conceptualisations is tested stepwise. Among the conceptualisations are Hortonian overland flow in summer and winter, reduced infiltration capacity due to a partly frozen soil and the relative effect of rainfall and snow smelt in case of this frozen soil. The results show that the named processes can make a large difference on event basis, especially the Hortonian overland flow in summer and the combination of rainfall and snow melt on (partly) frozen soil in winter. However, differences diminish when the modelled period of several years is evaluated based on standard metrics like Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. These results emphasise on one hand the importance of incorporating the effects of agricultural in conceptual models and on the other hand the importance of more event

  13. TransCom N2O model inter-comparison - Part 1: Assessing the influence of transport and surface fluxes on tropospheric N2O variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, R. L.; Patra, P. K.; Ishijima, K.; Saikawa, E.; Corazza, M.; Karstens, U.; Wilson, C.; Bergamaschi, P.; Dlugokencky, E.; Sweeney, C.; Prinn, R. G.; Weiss, R. F.; O'Doherty, S.; Fraser, P. J.; Steele, L. P.; Krummel, P. B.; Saunois, M.; Chipperfield, M.; Bousquet, P.

    2014-04-01

    We present a comparison of chemistry-transport models (TransCom-N2O) to examine the importance of atmospheric transport and surface fluxes on the variability of N2O mixing ratios in the troposphere. Six different models and two model variants participated in the inter-comparison and simulations were made for the period 2006 to 2009. In addition to N2O, simulations of CFC-12 and SF6 were made by a subset of four of the models to provide information on the models' proficiency in stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) and meridional transport, respectively. The same prior emissions were used by all models to restrict differences among models to transport and chemistry alone. Four different N2O flux scenarios totalling between 14 and 17 TgN yr-1 (for 2005) globally were also compared. The modelled N2O mixing ratios were assessed against observations from in situ stations, discrete air sampling networks and aircraft. All models adequately captured the large-scale patterns of N2O and the vertical gradient from the troposphere to the stratosphere and most models also adequately captured the N2O tropospheric growth rate. However, all models underestimated the inter-hemispheric N2O gradient by at least 0.33 parts per billion (ppb), equivalent to 1.5 TgN, which, even after accounting for an overestimate of emissions in the Southern Ocean of circa 1.0 TgN, points to a likely underestimate of the Northern Hemisphere source by up to 0.5 TgN and/or an overestimate of STE in the Northern Hemisphere. Comparison with aircraft data reveal that the models overestimate the amplitude of the N2O seasonal cycle at Hawaii (21° N, 158° W) below circa 6000 m, suggesting an overestimate of the importance of stratosphere to troposphere transport in the lower troposphere at this latitude. In the Northern Hemisphere, most of the models that provided CFC-12 simulations captured the phase of the CFC-12, seasonal cycle, indicating a reasonable representation of the timing of STE. However, for N

  14. TransCom N2O model inter-comparison - Part 1: Assessing the influence of transport and surface fluxes on tropospheric N2O variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, R. L.; Patra, P. K.; Ishijima, K.; Saikawa, E.; Corazza, M.; Karstens, U.; Wilson, C.; Bergamaschi, P.; Dlugokencky, E.; Sweeney, C.; Prinn, R. G.; Weiss, R. F.; O'Doherty, S.; Fraser, P. J.; Steele, L. P.; Krummel, P. B.; Saunois, M.; Chipperfield, M.; Bousquet, P.

    2014-01-01

    We present a comparison of chemistry-transport models (TransCom-N2O) to examine the importance of atmospheric transport and surface fluxes on the variability of N2O mixing ratios in the troposphere. Six different models and two model variants participated in the inter-comparison and simulations were made for the period 2006 to 2009. In addition to N2O, simulations of CFC-12 and SF6 were made by a subset of four of the models to provide information on the models proficiency in stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) and meridional transport, respectively. The same prior emissions were used by all models to restrict differences among models to transport and chemistry alone. Four different N2O flux scenarios totalling between 14 and 17 Tg N yr-1 (for 2005) globally were also compared. The modelled N2O mixing ratios were assessed against observations from in-situ stations, discrete air sampling networks, and aircraft. All models adequately captured the large-scale patterns of N2O and the vertical gradient from the troposphere to the stratosphere and most models also adequately captured the N2O tropospheric growth rate. However, all models underestimated the inter-hemispheric N2O gradient by at least 0.33 ppb (equivalent to 1.5 Tg N), which, even after accounting for an overestimate of emissions in the Southern Ocean of circa 1.0 Tg N, points to a likely underestimate of the Northern Hemisphere source by up to 0.5 Tg N and/or an overestimate of STE in the Northern Hemisphere. Comparison with aircraft data reveal that the models overestimate the amplitude of the N2O seasonal cycle at Hawaii (21° N, 158° W) below circa 6000 m, suggesting an overestimate of the importance of stratosphere to troposphere transport in the lower troposphere at this latitude. In the Northern Hemisphere, most of the models that provided CFC-12 simulations captured the phase of the CFC-12, seasonal cycle, indicating a reasonable representation of the timing of STE. However, for N2O all models

  15. Composition changes after the "Halloween" solar proton event: the High Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere (HEPPA) model versus MIPAS data intercomparison study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Funke, B.; Baumgaertner, A.; Calisto, M.; Egorova, T.; Jackman, C. H.; Kieser, J.; Krivolutsky, A.; López-Puertas, M.; Marsh, D. R.; Reddmann, T.; Rozanov, E.; Salmi, S.-M.; Sinnhuber, M.; Stiller, G. P.; Verronen, P. T.; Versick, S.; von Clarmann, T.; Vyushkova, T. Y.; Wieters, N.; Wissing, J. M.

    2011-09-01

    hints at an underestimation of the OH/HO2 ratio in the upper polar stratosphere during the SPE. The analysis of chlorine species perturbations has shown that the encountered differences between models and observations, particularly the underestimation of observed ClONO2 enhancements, are related to a smaller availability of ClO in the polar night region already before the SPE. In general, the intercomparison has demonstrated that differences in the meteorology and/or initial state of the atmosphere in the simulations cause a relevant variability of the model results, even on a short timescale of only a few days.

  16. Composition Changes After the "Halloween" Solar Proton Event: The High-Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere (HEPPA) Model Versus MIPAS Data Intercomparison Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Funke, B.; Baumgaertner, A.; Calisto, M.; Egorova, T.; Jackman, C. H.; Kieser, J.; Krivolutsky, A.; Lopez-Puertas, M.; Marsh. D. R.; Reddmann, T.; Rozanov, E.; Salmi, S.-M.; Sinnhuber, M.; Stiller, G. P.; Verronen, P. T.; Versick, S.; vonClarmann, T.; Vyushkova, T. Y.; Wieters, N.; Wissing, J. M.

    2010-01-01

    analysis of chlorine species perturbations has shown that the encountered differences between models and observations, particularly the underestimation of observed ClONO2 enhancements, are related to a smaller availability of ClO in the polar night region already before the SPE. In general, the intercomparison has demonstrated that differences in the meteorology and/or initial state of the atmosphere in the simulations causes a relevant variability of the model results, even on a short timescale of only a few days.

  17. Composition changes after the "Halloween" solar proton event: the High-Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere (HEPPA) model versus MIPAS data intercomparison study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Funke, B.; Baumgaertner, A.; Calisto, M.; Egorova, T.; Jackman, C. H.; Kieser, J.; Krivolutsky, A.; López-Puertas, M.; Marsh, D. R.; Reddmann, T.; Rozanov, E.; Salmi, S.-M.; Sinnhuber, M.; Stiller, G. P.; Verronen, P. T.; Versick, S.; von Clarmann, T.; Vyushkova, T. Y.; Wieters, N.; Wissing, J. M.

    2011-03-01

    of chlorine species perturbations has shown that the encountered differences between models and observations, particularly the underestimation of observed ClONO2 enhancements, are related to a smaller availability of ClO in the polar night region already before the SPE. In general, the intercomparison has demonstrated that differences in the meteorology and/or initial state of the atmosphere in the simulations causes a relevant variability of the model results, even on a short timescale of only a few days.

  18. Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Experiment 1: implementation strategy and mid-Pliocene global climatology using GENESIS v3.0 GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koenig, S. J.; Deconto, R. M.; Pollard, D.

    2012-01-01

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (3.29 to 2.97 Ma BP) has been identified as an analogue for the future, with the potential to help understand climate processes in a warmer than modern world. Sets of climate proxies, combined to provide boundary conditions for Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations of the mid-Pliocene, form the basis for the international, data-driven Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Here, we outline the strategy for implementing pre-industrial (modern) and mid-Pliocene forcings and boundary conditions into the GENESIS version 3 GCM, as part of PlioMIP. We describe the prescription of greenhouse gas concentrations and orbital parameters and the implementation of geographic boundary conditions such as land-ice-sea distribution, topography, sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, vegetation, soils, and ice sheets. We further describe model-specific details including spin-up and integration times. In addition, the global climatology of the mid-Pliocene as simulated by the GENESIS v3 GCM is analyzed and compared to the pre-industrial control simulation. The simulated climate of the mid-Pliocene warm interval is found to differ considerably from pre-industrial. We identify model sensitivity to imposed forcings, and internal feedbacks that collectively affect both local and far-field responses. Our analysis points out the need to assess both the direct impacts of external forcings and the combined effects of indirect, internal feedbacks. This paper provides the basis for assessing model biases within the PlioMIP framework, and will be useful for comparisons with other studies of mid-Pliocene climates.

  19. A new methodology to assess the performance and uncertainty of source apportionment models II: The results of two European intercomparison exercises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belis, C. A.; Karagulian, F.; Amato, F.; Almeida, M.; Artaxo, P.; Beddows, D. C. S.; Bernardoni, V.; Bove, M. C.; Carbone, S.; Cesari, D.; Contini, D.; Cuccia, E.; Diapouli, E.; Eleftheriadis, K.; Favez, O.; El Haddad, I.; Harrison, R. M.; Hellebust, S.; Hovorka, J.; Jang, E.; Jorquera, H.; Kammermeier, T.; Karl, M.; Lucarelli, F.; Mooibroek, D.; Nava, S.; Nøjgaard, J. K.; Paatero, P.; Pandolfi, M.; Perrone, M. G.; Petit, J. E.; Pietrodangelo, A.; Pokorná, P.; Prati, P.; Prevot, A. S. H.; Quass, U.; Querol, X.; Saraga, D.; Sciare, J.; Sfetsos, A.; Valli, G.; Vecchi, R.; Vestenius, M.; Yubero, E.; Hopke, P. K.

    2015-12-01

    The performance and the uncertainty of receptor models (RMs) were assessed in intercomparison exercises employing real-world and synthetic input datasets. To that end, the results obtained by different practitioners using ten different RMs were compared with a reference. In order to explain the differences in the performances and uncertainties of the different approaches, the apportioned mass, the number of sources, the chemical profiles, the contribution-to-species and the time trends of the sources were all evaluated using the methodology described in Belis et al. (2015). In this study, 87% of the 344 source contribution estimates (SCEs) reported by participants in 47 different source apportionment model results met the 50% standard uncertainty quality objective established for the performance test. In addition, 68% of the SCE uncertainties reported in the results were coherent with the analytical uncertainties in the input data. The most used models, EPA-PMF v.3, PMF2 and EPA-CMB 8.2, presented quite satisfactory performances in the estimation of SCEs while unconstrained models, that do not account for the uncertainty in the input data (e.g. APCS and FA-MLRA), showed below average performance. Sources with well-defined chemical profiles and seasonal time trends, that make appreciable contributions (>10%), were those better quantified by the models while those with contributions to the PM mass close to 1% represented a challenge. The results of the assessment indicate that RMs are capable of estimating the contribution of the major pollution source categories over a given time window with a level of accuracy that is in line with the needs of air quality management.

  20. Radon tower measurements in a Spanish coastal site for Lagrangian particle dispersion model inter-comparison and performance assessment at the mesoscale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vargas, Arturo; Arnold, Delia; Ángel Hernández-Ceballos, Miguel; Adame, José Antonio; Morton, Don; Grossi, Claudia; Schicker, Irene; de la Morena, Benito; Bolivar, Juan Pedro; Gil, Manuel

    2013-04-01

    In the framework of the spanish research project "Development and validation of advanced atmospheric dispersion models for their application in radiological emergency systems" (ref:CGL2008-00473) /CLI, the "El Arenosillo" tower, belonging to the National Institute for Aerospace Technology (INTA) was equiped with radon monitors and, since 2011, is providing reliable and high quality measurements of Rn-222 air concentrations on an hourly basis at two elevations, namely 10 and 100 m above ground level. This radionuclide data is accompanied by continuous meteorological data including temperature, humidity, pressure and wind speed / direction. The location of the station, at the very edge of the Southern Europe, exposed to continental (rural, industrial and urban), marine and Saharan air masses, together with the Rn-222 and meteorological measurements, make it particularly attractive to study the transport phenomena and the performance of meteorological and transport models at all scales, as well as to carry out studies on the vertical structure of the atmosphere in a coastal site. In this context, two intensive measurement campaigns, including radio soundings, were performed during October 2011 and May 2012, allowing the comparison and a better understanding of the Rn-222 measurements under different meteorological conditions. This work will present a first evaluation of the two campaigns at the INTA station, analyzing the evolution of Rn-222 concentration data and the results of the meteorological numerical modelling of those episodes using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with different parameterizations. Finally, the atmospheric dispersion model inter-comparison (HYSPLIT-WRF and FLEXPART-WRF) with Rn-222 as a tracer is performed.

  1. World agriculture and climate change: Current modeling issues

    SciTech Connect

    Darwin, R.

    1996-12-31

    Recent studies suggest that although global increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns during the next century will affect world agriculture, farmer adaptations are likely to prevent climate change from jeopardizing world food production. The costs and benefits of global climate change, however, are not equally distributed around the world. Agricultural production may increase in high latitude and alpine areas, but decrease in tropical and some other areas. Also, land use changes that accompany climate-induced shifts in cropland and permanent pasture are likely to raise additional social and environmental issues. Despite these advances, some important aspects of climate change have not been adequately simulated in global models. These include the effects that climate-induced changes in water resources are likely to have on agricultural production, the well-documented beneficial effects of higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide on plant growth and water use, and the cooling effects of tropospheric emissions of sulfur dioxide. In addition, past research generally relied on equilibrium climates based on a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Now, however, results from transient climate change experiments are available.

  2. AgBase: supporting functional modeling in agricultural organisms.

    PubMed

    McCarthy, Fiona M; Gresham, Cathy R; Buza, Teresia J; Chouvarine, Philippe; Pillai, Lakshmi R; Kumar, Ranjit; Ozkan, Seval; Wang, Hui; Manda, Prashanti; Arick, Tony; Bridges, Susan M; Burgess, Shane C

    2011-01-01

    AgBase (http://www.agbase.msstate.edu/) provides resources to facilitate modeling of functional genomics data and structural and functional annotation of agriculturally important animal, plant, microbe and parasite genomes. The website is redesigned to improve accessibility and ease of use, including improved search capabilities. Expanded capabilities include new dedicated pages for horse, cat, dog, cotton, rice and soybean. We currently provide 590 240 Gene Ontology (GO) annotations to 105 454 gene products in 64 different species, including GO annotations linked to transcripts represented on agricultural microarrays. For many of these arrays, this provides the only functional annotation available. GO annotations are available for download and we provide comprehensive, species-specific GO annotation files for 18 different organisms. The tools available at AgBase have been expanded and several existing tools improved based upon user feedback. One of seven new tools available at AgBase, GOModeler, supports hypothesis testing from functional genomics data. We host several associated databases and provide genome browsers for three agricultural pathogens. Moreover, we provide comprehensive training resources (including worked examples and tutorials) via links to Educational Resources at the AgBase website. PMID:21075795

  3. AgBase: supporting functional modeling in agricultural organisms

    PubMed Central

    McCarthy, Fiona M.; Gresham, Cathy R.; Buza, Teresia J.; Chouvarine, Philippe; Pillai, Lakshmi R.; Kumar, Ranjit; Ozkan, Seval; Wang, Hui; Manda, Prashanti; Arick, Tony; Bridges, Susan M.; Burgess, Shane C.

    2011-01-01

    AgBase (http://www.agbase.msstate.edu/) provides resources to facilitate modeling of functional genomics data and structural and functional annotation of agriculturally important animal, plant, microbe and parasite genomes. The website is redesigned to improve accessibility and ease of use, including improved search capabilities. Expanded capabilities include new dedicated pages for horse, cat, dog, cotton, rice and soybean. We currently provide 590 240 Gene Ontology (GO) annotations to 105 454 gene products in 64 different species, including GO annotations linked to transcripts represented on agricultural microarrays. For many of these arrays, this provides the only functional annotation available. GO annotations are available for download and we provide comprehensive, species-specific GO annotation files for 18 different organisms. The tools available at AgBase have been expanded and several existing tools improved based upon user feedback. One of seven new tools available at AgBase, GOModeler, supports hypothesis testing from functional genomics data. We host several associated databases and provide genome browsers for three agricultural pathogens. Moreover, we provide comprehensive training resources (including worked examples and tutorials) via links to Educational Resources at the AgBase website. PMID:21075795

  4. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    SciTech Connect

    Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

    2003-06-20

    This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN.

  5. The Development of the Integrated Three-Component Model of Agricultural Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Croom, D. Barry

    2008-01-01

    This research project sought to determine the origin of the three-component model of agricultural education in the United States and provided a contextual base for future research into the three-component model for agricultural education. The study concluded that each of the three components of the agricultural education model originated at…

  6. Simulating the Antarctic ice sheet in the Late-Pliocene warm period: PLISMIP-ANT, an ice-sheet model intercomparison project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Boer, Bas; Dolan, Aisling; Bernales, Jorge; Gasson, Edward; Goelzer, Heiko; Golledge, Nick; Sutter, Johannes; Huybrechts, Phillipe; Lohmann, Gerrit; Rogozhina, Irina; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Saito, Fuyuki; van de Wal, Roderik

    2015-04-01

    In the context of future climate change, understanding the nature and behaviour of ice sheets during warm intervals in Earth history is of fundamental importance. The Late-Pliocene warm period (also known as the PRISM interval: 3.264 to 3.025 million years before present) can serve as a potential analogue for projected future climates. Although Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained, a significant contribution to sea-level rise should be expected from both the Greenland ice sheet and the West and East Antarctic ice sheets based on palaeo sea-level reconstructions. Here, we present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an international Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP-ANT). For the experiments, ice-sheet models including the shallow ice and shelf approximations have been used to simulate the complete Antarctic domain (including grounded and floating ice). We compare the performance of six existing numerical ice-sheet models in simulating modern control and Pliocene ice sheets by a suite of four sensitivity experiments. Ice-sheet model forcing fields are taken from the HadCM3 atmosphere-ocean climate model runs for the pre-industrial and the Pliocene. We include an overview of the different ice-sheet models used and how specific model configurations influence the resulting Pliocene Antarctic ice sheet. The six ice-sheet models simulate a comparable present-day ice sheet, although the models are setup with their own parameter settings. For the Pliocene simulations using the Bedmap1 bedrock topography, some models show a small retreat of the East Antarctic ice sheet, which is thought to have happened during the Pliocene for the Wilkes and Aurora basins. This can be ascribed to either the surface mass balance, as the HadCM3 Pliocene climate shows a significant increase over the Wilkes and Aurora basin, or the initial bedrock topography. For the latter, our simulations with the recently

  7. INTERCOMPARISON OF PLUTONIUM-239 MEASUREMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    In 1977 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency distributed calibrated solutions of plutonium-239 to laboratories interested in participating in an intercomparison study of plutonium analysis. Participants were asked to perform a quantitative radioactivity analysis of the soluti...

  8. Modeling Climate Impacts on Agriculture in South East South America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ines, A. M.; Baethgen, W.; Greene, A. M.; Goddard, L. M.

    2013-12-01

    In the past two decades, a rapid expansion of croplands in South East South America is observed. This drastic change in landuse is seen to be due to two major factors - climate and economics. Converting marginal lands into agricultural lands is possible due to the increase in annual precipitation in the region and the increasing prices of soybeans and higher demands for grain crops have played a key role to this expansion. But the question is, how sustainable is the current trend in the future? A modeling study is conducted to evaluate the impacts of climate on agriculture in the Southern Cone of South America. We examine the impacts of climate variability and current climate change to crop yields using crop simulation models. Using the results of our current climate analysis as a baseline, we evaluate the impacts of future climate change in the next 10-30 years. Climate projections include scenarios considering only global warming, ozone and both impacting the near-term climate of the future in the region and considering decadal variability. We aim to evaluate the vulnerability of the current system to climate change. This paper will present the results of our modeling study.

  9. Tropical and Subtropical Cloud Transitions in Weather and Climate Prediction Models: The GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Teixeira, J.; Cardoso, S.; Bonazzola, M.; Cole, J.; DeGenio, A.; DeMott, C.; Franklin, C.; Hannay, C.; Jakob, C.; Jiao, Y.; Karlsson, J.; Kitagawa, H.; Kohler, M.; Kuwano-Yoshida, A.; LeDrian, C.; Turk, F. J.

    2011-01-01

    A model evaluation approach is proposed in which weather and climate prediction models are analyzed along a Pacific Ocean cross section, from the stratocumulus regions off the coast of California, across the shallow convection dominated trade winds, to the deep convection regions of the ITCZ the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Cloud System Study/Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (GCSS/ WGNE) Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI). The main goal of GPCI is to evaluate and help understand and improve the representation of tropical and subtropical cloud processes in weather and climate prediction models. In this paper, a detailed analysis of cloud regime transitions along the cross section from the subtropics to the tropics for the season June July August of 1998 is presented. This GPCI study confirms many of the typical weather and climate prediction model problems in the representation of clouds: underestimation of clouds in the stratocumulus regime by most models with the corresponding consequences in terms of shortwave radiation biases; overestimation of clouds by the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) in the deep tropics (in particular) with the corresponding impact in the outgoing longwave radiation; large spread between the different models in terms of cloud cover, liquid water path and shortwave radiation; significant differences between the models in terms of vertical cross sections of cloud properties (in particular), vertical velocity, and relative humidity. An alternative analysis of cloud cover mean statistics is proposed where sharp gradients in cloud cover along the GPCI transect are taken into account. This analysis shows that the negative cloud bias of some models and ERA-40 in the stratocumulus regions [as compared to the first International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP)] is associated not only with lower values of cloud cover in these regimes, but also with a stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition that occurs too

  10. Pre-industrial to End 21st Century Projections of Tropospheric Ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Young, P. J.; Archibald, A. T.; Bowman, K. W.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.; Stevenson, D. S.; Tilmes, S.; Voulgarakis, A.; Wild, O.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Cionni, I.; Collins, W. J.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Doherty, R. M.; Eyring, V.; Faluvegi, G.; Horowitz, L. W.; Josse, B.; Lee, Y. H.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Nagashima, T.; Plummer, D. A.; Righi, M.; Strode, S. A.

    2013-01-01

    Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean compares well against present day observations. The seasonal cycle correlates well, except for some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Most (75 %) of the models are encompassed with a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data, but there is a suggestion of a high bias in the Northern Hemisphere and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere, which could indicate deficiencies with the ozone precursor emissions. Compared to the present day ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden of 337+/-23 Tg, the ensemble mean burden for 1850 time slice is approx. 30% lower. Future changes were modelled using emissions and climate projections from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Compared to 2000, the relative changes in the ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden in 2030 (2100) for the different RCPs are: -4% (-16 %) for RCP2.6, 2% (-7%) for RCP4.5, 1% (-9%) for RCP6.0, and 7% (18 %) for RCP8.5. Model agreement on the magnitude of the change is greatest for larger changes. Reductions in most precursor emissions are common across the RCPs and drive ozone decreases in all but RCP8.5, where doubled methane and a 40-150% greater stratospheric influx (estimated from a subset of models) increase ozone. While models with a high ozone burden for the present day also have high ozone burdens for the other time slices, no model consistently predicts large or small ozone changes; i.e. the magnitudes of the burdens and burden changes do not appear to be related simply, and the models are sensitive to emissions and climate changes in different ways. Spatial patterns of ozone changes are well correlated across most models, but are notably different for models without time evolving stratospheric ozone concentrations

  11. Tropical and subtropical cloud transitions in weather and climate prediction models: the GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI)

    SciTech Connect

    Teixeira, J.; Cardoso, S.; Bonazzola, M.; Cole, Jason N.; DelGenio, Anthony D.; DeMott, C.; Franklin, A.; Hannay, Cecile; Jakob, Christian; Jiao, Y.; Karlsson, J.; Kitagawa, H.; Koehler, M.; Kuwano-Yoshida, A.; LeDrian, C.; Lock, Adrian; Miller, M.; Marquet, P.; Martins, J.; Mechoso, C. R.; Meijgaard, E. V.; Meinke, I.; Miranda, P.; Mironov, D.; Neggers, Roel; Pan, H. L.; Randall, David A.; Rasch, Philip J.; Rockel, B.; Rossow, William B.; Ritter, B.; Siebesma, A. P.; Soares, P.; Turk, F. J.; Vaillancourt, P.; Von Engeln, A.; Zhao, M.

    2011-11-01

    A model evaluation approach is proposed where weather and climate prediction models are analyzed along a Pacific Ocean cross-section, from the stratocumulus regions off the coast of California, across the shallow convection dominated trade-winds, to the deep convection regions of the ITCZ: the GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison (GPCI). The main goal of GPCI is to evaluate, and help understand and improve the representation of tropical and sub-tropical cloud processes in weather and climate prediction models. In this paper, a detailed analysis of cloud regime transitions along the cross-section from the sub-tropics to the tropics for the season JJA of 1998 is presented. This GPCI study confirms many of the typical weather and climate prediction model problems in the representation of clouds: underestimation of clouds in the stratocumulus regime by most models with the corresponding consequences in terms of shortwave radiation biases; overestimation of clouds by the ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA40) in the deep tropics (in particular) with the corresponding impact in the outgoing longwave radiation; large spread between the different models in terms of cloud cover, liquid water path and shortwave radiation; significant differences between the models in terms of vertical crosssections of cloud properties (in particular), vertical velocity and relative humidity. An alternative analysis of cloud cover mean statistics is proposed where sharp gradients in cloud cover along the GPCI transect are taken into account. This analysis shows that the negative cloud bias of some models and ERA40 in the stratocumulus regions (as compared to ISCCP) is associated not only with lower values of cloud cover in these regimes, but also with a stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition that occurs too early along the trade-wind Lagrangian trajectory. Histograms of cloud cover along the cross-section differ significantly between models. Some models exhibit a quasi-bimodal structure with cloud

  12. Linking knowledge and action through mental models of sustainable agriculture.

    PubMed

    Hoffman, Matthew; Lubell, Mark; Hillis, Vicken

    2014-09-01

    Linking knowledge to action requires understanding how decision-makers conceptualize sustainability. This paper empirically analyzes farmer "mental models" of sustainability from three winegrape-growing regions of California where local extension programs have focused on sustainable agriculture. The mental models are represented as networks where sustainability concepts are nodes, and links are established when a farmer mentions two concepts in their stated definition of sustainability. The results suggest that winegrape grower mental models of sustainability are hierarchically structured, relatively similar across regions, and strongly linked to participation in extension programs and adoption of sustainable farm practices. We discuss the implications of our findings for the debate over the meaning of sustainability, and the role of local extension programs in managing knowledge systems. PMID:25157158

  13. Sensitivity of global and regional terrestrial carbon storage to the direct CO2 effect and climate change based on the CMIP5 model intercomparison.

    PubMed

    Peng, Jing; Dan, Li; Huang, Mei

    2014-01-01

    Global and regional land carbon storage has been significantly affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. Based on fully coupled climate-carbon-cycle simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigate sensitivities of land carbon storage to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change over the world and 21 regions during the 130 years. Overall, the simulations suggest that consistently spatial positive effects of the increasing CO2 concentrations on land carbon storage are expressed with a multi-model averaged value of 1.04 PgC per ppm. The stronger positive values are mainly located in the broad areas of temperate and tropical forest, especially in Amazon basin and western Africa. However, large heterogeneity distributed for sensitivities of land carbon storage to climate change. Climate change causes decrease in land carbon storage in most tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, decrease in soil moisture (MRSO) and enhanced drought somewhat contribute to such a decrease accompanied with rising temperature. Conversely, an increase in land carbon storage has been observed in high latitude and altitude regions (e.g., northern Asia and Tibet). The model simulations also suggest that global negative impacts of climate change on land carbon storage are predominantly attributed to decrease in land carbon storage in tropics. Although current warming can lead to an increase in land storage of high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere due to elevated vegetation growth, a risk of exacerbated future climate change may be induced due to release of carbon from tropics. PMID:24748331

  14. Sensitivity of Global and Regional Terrestrial Carbon Storage to the Direct CO2 Effect and Climate Change Based on the CMIP5 Model Intercomparison

    PubMed Central

    Peng, Jing; Dan, Li; Huang, Mei

    2014-01-01

    Global and regional land carbon storage has been significantly affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. Based on fully coupled climate-carbon-cycle simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigate sensitivities of land carbon storage to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change over the world and 21 regions during the 130 years. Overall, the simulations suggest that consistently spatial positive effects of the increasing CO2 concentrations on land carbon storage are expressed with a multi-model averaged value of 1.04PgC per ppm. The stronger positive values are mainly located in the broad areas of temperate and tropical forest, especially in Amazon basin and western Africa. However, large heterogeneity distributed for sensitivities of land carbon storage to climate change. Climate change causes decrease in land carbon storage in most tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, decrease in soil moisture (MRSO) and enhanced drought somewhat contribute to such a decrease accompanied with rising temperature. Conversely, an increase in land carbon storage has been observed in high latitude and altitude regions (e.g., northern Asia and Tibet). The model simulations also suggest that global negative impacts of climate change on land carbon storage are predominantly attributed to decrease in land carbon storage in tropics. Although current warming can lead to an increase in land storage of high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere due to elevated vegetation growth, a risk of exacerbated future climate change may be induced due to release of carbon from tropics. PMID:24748331

  15. Simulating the Antarctic ice sheet in the Late-Pliocene warm period: PLISMIP-ANT, an ice-sheet model intercomparison project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Boer, B.; Dolan, A. M.; Bernales, J.; Gasson, E.; Goelzer, H.; Golledge, N. R.; Sutter, J.; Huybrechts, P.; Lohmann, G.; Rogozhina, I.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Saito, F.; van de Wal, R. S. W.

    2014-11-01

    In the context of future climate change, understanding the nature and behaviour of ice sheets during warm intervals in Earth history is of fundamental importance. The Late-Pliocene warm period (also known as the PRISM interval: 3.264 to 3.025 million years before present) can serve as a potential analogue for projected future climates. Although Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained, a significant contribution to sea-level rise should be expected from both the Greenland ice sheet and the West and East Antarctic ice sheets based on palaeo sea-level reconstructions. Here, we present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an international Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP-ANT). For the experiments, ice-sheet models including the shallow ice and shelf approximations have been used to simulate the complete Antarctic domain (including grounded and floating ice). We compare the performance of six existing numerical ice-sheet models in simulating modern control and Pliocene ice sheets by a suite of four sensitivity experiments. Ice-sheet model forcing fields are taken from the HadCM3 atmosphere-ocean climate model runs for the pre-industrial and the Pliocene. We include an overview of the different ice-sheet models used and how specific model configurations influence the resulting Pliocene Antarctic ice sheet. The six ice-sheet models simulate a comparable present-day ice sheet, although the models are setup with their own parameter settings. For the Pliocene simulations using the Bedmap1 bedrock topography, some models show a small retreat of the East Antarctic ice sheet, which is thought to have happened during the Pliocene for the Wilkes and Aurora basins. This can be ascribed to either the surface mass balance, as the HadCM3 Pliocene climate shows a significant increase over the Wilkes and Aurora basin, or the initial bedrock topography. For the latter, our simulations with the recently

  16. Simulating the Antarctic ice sheet in the Late-Pliocene warm period: PLISMIP-ANT, an ice-sheet model intercomparison project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Boer, Bas; Dolan, Aisling M.; Hill, Daniel J.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

    2014-05-01

    In the context of future climate change, understanding the nature and behaviour of ice sheets during warm intervals in Earth history is of fundamental importance. The Late-Pliocene Warm Period (also known as the PRISM interval: 3.29 to 2.97 million years before present) can serve as a potential analogue for projected future climates, with a global annual mean surface-air temperature warming of 1.76 °C. Although Pliocene ice locations and surface extents are still poorly constrained, a significant contribution to sea-level rise should be expected from Greenland and West and, possibly, East Antarctica based on palaeo sea-level reconstructions. Here, we present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an international Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP-ANT). We include an overview of the different ice-sheet models used and how specific model configurations influence the resulting Pliocene Antarctic ice sheet. For the experiments, ice-sheet models including the shallow ice and shelf approximations have been used to simulate the complete Antarctic domain (including grounded and floating ice). We compare the performance of the ice-sheet models in simulating modern control and Pliocene ice sheets by a suite of sensitivity experiments. Ice-sheet model forcing fields are taken from the PlioMIP results incorporating multiple coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCM). We show that ice-sheet models simulate a present-day ice sheet which is comparable to the observations, and find no systematic biases introduced when using different GCM forcing relative to observational climate forcing. This project includes multiple ice-sheet models forced with multiple climate model output, from which a comprehensive assessment can be made as to the uncertainties of ice-sheet extent on Antarctica. These results may eventually serve as a new constraint on the extent of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Late-Pliocene Warm Period

  17. Modeling a phosphorus credit trading program in an agricultural watershed.

    PubMed

    Corrales, Juliana; Naja, G Melodie; Bhat, Mahadev G; Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando

    2014-10-01

    Water quality and economic models were linked to assess the economic and environmental benefits of implementing a phosphorus credit trading program in an agricultural sub-basin of Lake Okeechobee watershed, Florida, United States. The water quality model determined the effects of rainfall, land use type, and agricultural management practices on the amount of total phosphorus (TP) discharged. TP loadings generated at the farm level, reaching the nearby streams, and attenuated to the sub-basin outlet from all sources within the sub-basin, were estimated at 106.4, 91, and 85 mtons yr(-)(1), respectively. Almost 95% of the TP loadings reaching the nearby streams were attributed to agriculture sources, and only 1.2% originated from urban areas, accounting for a combined TP load of 87.9 mtons yr(-)(1). In order to compare a Least-Cost Abatement approach to a Command-and-Control approach, the most cost effective cap of 30% TP reduction was selected, and the individual allocation was set at a TP load target of 1.6 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) (at the nearby stream level). The Least-Cost Abatement approach generated a potential cost savings of 27% ($1.3 million per year), based on an optimal credit price of $179. Dairies (major buyer), ornamentals, row crops, and sod farms were identified as potential credit buyers, whereas citrus, improved pastures (major seller), and urban areas were identified as potential credit sellers. Almost 81% of the TP credits available for trading were exchanged. The methodology presented here can be adapted to deal with different forms of trading sources, contaminants, or other technologies and management practices. PMID:24907668

  18. Watershed Modeling in areas with Intensive Agricultural Irrigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wyss, J. R.; Watson, B. J.

    2011-12-01

    Irrigation in agricultural intensive watersheds affects soil moisture content, plays a major role in the overall water balance and also influences the hydrologic regime. Historically, irrigation in watershed modeling has been very difficult to simulate and was simulated in one of three general ways. 1) irrigation water was withdrawan from the model and never applied to the land, 2) ignored and assumed insignificant and 3) input as a constant by modifying atmospheric forcing files. For the Loading Simulation Program C++ (LSPC) model developed for the Flint River Watershed in southwest Georgia, we received a summary report of a study conducted to determine irrigation application depth, as well as spatial mapping of irrigated fields in the state of Georgia. The summary report provided minimum, mean, and maximum irrigation depth for both surface water and groundwater sources and the spatial mapping provided over 10,300 irrigated fields located within the boundaries of the Flint River Watershed. With this information we were able to calculate irrigation volume applied to the land by source water type. We discuss how these data were incorporated into the LSPC watershed modeling effort and demonstrate the utility and function of the model for irrigation application. We also investigate impacts to water balance and the hydrologic regime through a series of scenarios in the agriculturally dominated landscape of Ichawaynochaway Creek (HUC 03130009). The scenarios compare and contrast our approach with 1) ignoring irrigation both application and water withdrawal, and 2) only withdrawing the water and not applying it back to the land. We demonstrate the importance of properly simulating irrigation application in heavily influenced areas. The approach we have taken is applicable in other areas in the southeastern United States or any area that is highly influenced by irrigation practices.

  19. Making Other Worlds: Modelling Past Interactions of Agriculture and Erosion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wainwright, J.

    2012-04-01

    It is argued that the understanding of past agricultural erosion has been greatly simplified because conceptual or numerical models have been used that emphasize the technical aspects of the erosion process, fail to recognize the spatial and temporal scaling of the erosion, and especially ignore the idea that such erosion is the result of multiple, interacting decisions made by people. While there have been significant developments in the first two of these areas over the last decade, there has been little explicit recognition of the third of these limitations. This problem is a consequence of the very different disciplinary approaches that are needed. One method that can be used to address this limitation is that of agent-based modelling. Agent-based models permit an explicit representation of how individuals or groups of individuals interact with each other and their environment. Furthermore, environmental changes can be fed back into agent behaviour, and other potential controls such as climate variations can be assessed. The CYBEROSION modelling framework has been developed to take this approach and evaluate patterns of erosion due to past land-use decision-making. Examples will be drawn from case studies in the Neolithic and Bronze Age, largely from the Mediterranean region. The emphasis is on modelling as a heuristic approach to understanding, rather than necessarily as a predictive tool. In particular, it provides guidance in relation to which parts of existing discipline-bound knowledge are needed to produce an explicit, interdisciplinary understanding of patterns of landscape change as a result of changing agricultural practice. Results from the case studies demonstrate how complex spatio-temporal patterns of past erosion can arise from relatively simple, local interactions between people and their environment. To conclude, will also be an assessment of more modern examples, as well as of related literature in archaeology, and geoarchaeology, and a

  20. Application Of Colored Petri Net In Modeling Ofan Agricultural Enterprise Informationmanagement System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Fangtian; Wang, Kaiyi; Sui, Jin; Liu, Chang; Liu, Zhongqiang

    Business system modeling of an agricultural enterprise is one of the difficulties in developing and researching an agricultural enterprise management information system. Given the inadequate description of concurrent and synchronal events in the traditional modeling methods, this paper presents a modeling method, which uses Colored Petri Net. The paper discusses the application of Colored Petri Net in system modeling with the example of an agricultural enterprise production management system model, and analyzes the feasibility and effectiveness of that model.

  1. Dust Model Intercomparison and Extensive Comparison to Observations in the Western Mediterranean for the Summer 2012 Pre-ChArMEx/TRAQA Campaign

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basart, S.; Dulac, F.; Baldasano, J. M.

    2014-12-01

    The present analysis focuses on the model capability to properly simulate long-range Saharan dust transport for summer 2012 in the Western Mediterranean. In this period, Saharan dust events were numerous as shown by satellite and ground-based remote sensing observations.An exhaustive comparison of model outputs against other models and observations can reveal weaknesses of individual models, provide an assessment of uncertainties in simulating the dust cycle and give additional information on sources for potential model improvement. For this kind of study, multiple and different observations are combined to deliver a detailed idea of the structure and evolution of the dust cloud and the state of the atmosphere at the different stages of the event. The present contribution shows an intercomparison of a set of 7 European regional dust model simulations (NMMB/BSC-Dust, ALADIN, Meso-NH, RegCM, CHIMERE, COSMO/MUSCAT; MOCAGE and BSC-DREAM8b). In this study, the model outputs are compared against a variety of both ground-based and airborne in situ and remote sensing measurements performed during the pre-ChArMEx/TRAQA field campaign which included in particular several AERONET sites, the airborne lidar LNG, sounding with a ULA and with the new balloonborne optical particle counter LOAC showing large particles (>15 µm), the CARAGA network of weekly deposition samples, etc. The models are also compared with satellite aerosol products (including MSG/SEVIRI, MODIS, POLDER and CALIOP), which provide a description of the spatial AOD distribution over the basin. These observational datasets provide a complete set of unusual quantitative constraints for model simulations of this period, combining data on aerosol optical depth, vertical distribution, particle size distribution, deposition flux, and chemical and optical properties. Acknowledgements are addressed to OMP/SEDOO for the ChArMEx data portal and to CNES for balloon operations and funding. The other main sponsors of the

  2. Intercomparison of the capabilities of simplified climate models to project the effects of aviation CO2 on climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khodayari, Arezoo; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Olsen, Seth C.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje; Lund, Marianne T.; Waitz, Ian; Wolfe, Philip; Forster, Piers M.; Meinshausen, Malte; Lee, David S.; Lim, Ling L.

    2013-08-01

    This study evaluates the capabilities of the carbon cycle and energy balance treatments relative to the effect of aviation CO2 emissions on climate in several existing simplified climate models (SCMs) that are either being used or could be used for evaluating the effects of aviation on climate. Since these models are used in policy-related analyses, it is important that the capabilities of such models represent the state of understanding of the science. We compare the Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool (APMT) Impacts climate model, two models used at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO-1 and CICERO-2), the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) model as described in Jain et al. (1994), the simple Linear Climate response model (LinClim) and the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change version 6 (MAGICC6). In this paper we select scenarios to illustrate the behavior of the carbon cycle and energy balance models in these SCMs. This study is not intended to determine the absolute and likely range of the expected climate response in these models but to highlight specific features in model representations of the carbon cycle and energy balance models that need to be carefully considered in studies of aviation effects on climate. These results suggest that carbon cycle models that use linear impulse-response-functions (IRF) in combination with separate equations describing air-sea and air-biosphere exchange of CO2 can account for the dominant nonlinearities in the climate system that would otherwise not have been captured with an IRF alone, and hence, produce a close representation of more complex carbon cycle models. Moreover, results suggest that an energy balance model with a 2-box ocean sub-model and IRF tuned to reproduce the response of coupled Earth system models produces a close representation of the globally-averaged temperature response of more complex energy balance models.

  3. Dust Model Intercomparison For Summer 2012 In The Western Mediterranean and Comparison to The Pre-ChArMEx/TRAQA Campaign Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basart, Sara

    2014-05-01

    Saharan dust is an important contributor on European air quality levels and consequently has a relevant impact on human health and ecosystems. Even though most of the transport of dust particles occurs in altitude, as shown by surface lidars and airborne data, dust events signi?cantly impact surface PM10 concentrations even in urban traf?c type of air quality monitoring stations, and background stations are needed to assess the contribution of desert dust. In this sense, regional air quality models are useful to understand the dynamics and transport of pollutants. The present contribution shows a preliminary intercomparison of a set of 7 regional dust model simulations (NMMB/BSC-Dust, ALADIN, Meso-NH, RegCM, CHIMERE, COSMO/MUSCAT; MOCAGE and BSC-DREAM8b). The present analysis focuses on the model capability to properly simulate long-range Saharan dust transport for summer 2012 in the Western Mediterranean. In this period, Saharan dust events were numerous as shown by satellite and ground-based observations. The model evaluation is crucial to determine the individual performance of each model and it provides a useful tool to identify their strengths and weaknesses. In this study, the model outputs are compared against a variety of both ground-based and airborne in situ and remote sensing measurements performed during the pre-ChArMEx/TRAQA ?eld campaign which included the airborne lidar LNG and the new balloonborne optical particle counter LOAC. Also, the models are compared with satellite aerosol products (including MSG/SEVIRI, POLDER and CALIOP) which provide a description of the spatial AOD distribution over the basin. These observational datasets provide a complete set of unusual quantitative constraints for model simulations of this period, combining data on aerosol optical depth, vertical distribution, particle size distribution, and chemical and optical properties. Acknowledgements are addressed to OMP/SEDOO for the ChArMEx data portal and to CNES for balloon

  4. Modelling Mediterranean agro-ecosystems by including agricultural trees in the LPJmL model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fader, M.; von Bloh, W.; Shi, S.; Bondeau, A.; Cramer, W.

    2015-11-01

    In the Mediterranean region, climate and land use change are expected to impact on natural and agricultural ecosystems by warming, reduced rainfall, direct degradation of ecosystems and biodiversity loss. Human population growth and socioeconomic changes, notably on the eastern and southern shores, will require increases in food production and put additional pressure on agro-ecosystems and water resources. Coping with these challenges requires informed decisions that, in turn, require assessments by means of a comprehensive agro-ecosystem and hydrological model. This study presents the inclusion of 10 Mediterranean agricultural plants, mainly perennial crops, in an agro-ecosystem model (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land - LPJmL): nut trees, date palms, citrus trees, orchards, olive trees, grapes, cotton, potatoes, vegetables and fodder grasses. The model was successfully tested in three model outputs: agricultural yields, irrigation requirements and soil carbon density. With the development presented in this study, LPJmL is now able to simulate in good detail and mechanistically the functioning of Mediterranean agriculture with a comprehensive representation of ecophysiological processes for all vegetation types (natural and agricultural) and in a consistent framework that produces estimates of carbon, agricultural and hydrological variables for the entire Mediterranean basin. This development paves the way for further model extensions aiming at the representation of alternative agro-ecosystems (e.g. agroforestry), and opens the door for a large number of applications in the Mediterranean region, for example assessments of the consequences of land use transitions, the influence of management practices and climate change impacts.

  5. Modelling Mediterranean agro-ecosystems by including agricultural trees in the LPJmL model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fader, M.; von Bloh, W.; Shi, S.; Bondeau, A.; Cramer, W.

    2015-06-01

    Climate and land use change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect natural and agricultural ecosystems by decreases in precipitation, increases in temperature as well as biodiversity loss and anthropogenic degradation of natural resources. Demographic growth in the Eastern and Southern shores will require increases in food production and put additional pressure on agro-ecosystems and water resources. Coping with these challenges requires informed decisions that, in turn, require assessments by means of a comprehensive agro-ecosystem and hydrological model. This study presents the inclusion of 10 Mediterranean agricultural plants, mainly perennial crops, in an agro-ecosystem model (LPJmL): nut trees, date palms, citrus trees, orchards, olive trees, grapes, cotton, potatoes, vegetables and fodder grasses. The model was successfully tested in three model outputs: agricultural yields, irrigation requirements and soil carbon density. With the development presented in this study, LPJmL is now able to simulate in good detail and mechanistically the functioning of Mediterranean agriculture with a comprehensive representation of ecophysiological processes for all vegetation types (natural and agricultural) and in a consistent framework that produces estimates of carbon, agricultural and hydrological variables for the entire Mediterranean basin. This development pave the way for further model extensions aiming at the representation of alternative agro-ecosystems (e.g. agroforestry), and opens the door for a large number of applications in the Mediterranean region, for example assessments on the consequences of land use transitions, the influence of management practices and climate change impacts.

  6. Intercomparison of two BRDF models in the estimation of the directional emissivity in MIR channel from MSG1-SEVIRI data.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Geng-Ming; Li, Zhao-Liang

    2008-11-10

    This work intercompared two Bi-directional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) models, the modified Minnaert's model and the RossThick-LiSparse-R model, in the estimation of the directional emissivity in Middle Infra-Red (MIR) channel from the data acquired by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infra-Red Imager (SEVIRI) onboard the first Meteosat Second Generation (MSG1). The bi-directional reflectances in SEVIRI channel 4 (3.9 microm) were estimated from the combined MIR and Thermal Infra-Red (TIR) data and then were used to estimate the directional emissivity in this channel with aid of the BRDF models. The results show that: (1) Both models can relatively well describe the non-Lambertian reflective behavior of land surfaces in SEVIRI channel 4; (2) The RossThick-LiSparse-R model is better than the modified Minnaert's model in modeling the bi-directional reflectances, and the directional emissivities modeled by the modified Minnaert's model are always lower than the ones obtained by the RossThick-LiSparse-R model with averaged emissivity differences of approximately 0.01 and approximately 0.04 over the vegetated and bare areas, respectively. The use of the RossThick-LiSparse-R model in the estimation of the directional emissivity in MIR channel is recommended. PMID:19582025

  7. Effects of dynamic agricultural decision making in an ecohydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reichenau, T. G.; Krimly, T.; Schneider, K.

    2012-04-01

    Due to various interdependencies between the cycles of water, carbon, nitrogen, and energy the impacts of climate change on ecohydrological systems can only be investigated in an integrative way. Furthermore, the human intervention in the environmental processes makes the system even more complex. On the one hand human impact affects natural systems. On the other hand the changing natural systems have a feedback on human decision making. One of the most important examples for this kind of interaction can be found in the agricultural sector. Management dates (planting, fertilization, harvesting) are chosen based on meteorological conditions and yield expectations. A faster development of crops under a warmer climate causes shorter cropping seasons. The choice of crops depends on their profitability, which is mainly determined by market prizes, the agro-political framework, and the (climate dependent) crop yield. This study investigates these relations for the district Günzburg located in the Upper Danube catchment in southern Germany. The modeling system DANUBIA was used to perform dynamically coupled simulations of plant growth, surface and soil hydrological processes, soil nitrogen transformations, and agricultural decision making. The agro-economic model simulates decisions on management dates (based on meteorological conditions and the crops' development state), on fertilization intensities (based on yield expectations), and on choice of crops (based on profitability). The environmental models included in DANUBIA are to a great extent process based to enable its use in a climate change scenario context. Scenario model runs until 2058 were performed using an IPCC A1B forcing. In consecutive runs, dynamic crop management, dynamic crop selection, and a changing agro-political framework were activated. Effects of these model features on hydrological and ecological variables were analyzed separately by comparing the results to a model run with constant crop

  8. Intercomparison of HONO SCDs and profiles from MAX-DOAS observations during the MAD-CAT campaign and comparison to chemical model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yang; Wagner, Thomas; Xie, Pinhua; Remmers, Julia; Li, Ang; Lampel, Johannes; Friess, Udo; Peters, Enno; Wittrock, Folkard; Richter, Andreas; Hilboll, Andreas; Volkamer, Rainer; Ortega, Ivan; Hendrick, Francois; Van Roozendael, Michel; Ma, Jianzhong; Jin, Junli; Su, Hang; Cheng, Yafang

    2015-04-01

    In order to promote the development of the passive DOAS technique and to improve the retrieval algorithms of trace gases and aerosols the Multi Axis DOAS - Comparison campaign for Aerosols and Trace gases (MAD-CAT) was held at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz, Germany from June to October 2013. MAX-DOAS (Multi-Axis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy) instruments of various designs recorded UV-visible spectra of scattered sunlight at different elevation and azimuth angles. We present intercomparison results for slant column densities (SCDs) of nitrous acid (HONO) retrieved during this campaign by several research groups. Data analysis was performed in two steps, starting with the preferred settings of the individual groups, followed by an analysis using common retrieval settings. In general good agreement of the resulting HONO SCD sets was found. Furthermore, we performed various sensitivity analyses to improve and evaluate the uncertainties in the HONO SCD retrieval, such as the influence of the wavelength dependence of the NO2 air mass factor, the selection of the wavelength interval of the retrieval, the choice of the Fraunhofer reference spectrum, or the offset correction. Finally we compared the results from different kinds of inversion algorithms for the vertical profiles of trace gases and aerosols. The derived HONO profiles, VMR near surface and tropospheric vertical column densities are compared with each other and with the results of regional chemical model simulations. We found a high HONO VMR near surface of about 200 ppt, which is much higher than the typical daytime VMR of lower than 10 ppt at the early noon (around 9:30 local time), probably indicating a strong source of HONO. The strong vertical gradient in the profile of HONO VMR probably indicates the HONO source is close to the surface.

  9. Global and regional modeling of clouds and aerosols in the marine boundary layer during VOCALS: the VOCA intercomparison

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Wyant, M. C.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Wood, Robert; Carmichael, Gregory; Clarke, A. D.; Fast, Jerome D.; George, R.; Gustafson, William I.; Hannay, Cecile; Lauer, Axel; et al

    2015-01-09

    A diverse collection of models are used to simulate the marine boundary layer in the southeast Pacific region during the period of the October–November 2008 VOCALS REx (VAMOS Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study Regional Experiment) field campaign. Regional models simulate the period continuously in boundary-forced free-running mode, while global forecast models and GCMs (general circulation models) are run in forecast mode. The models are compared to extensive observations along a line at 20° S extending westward from the South American coast. Most of the models simulate cloud and aerosol characteristics and gradients across the region that are recognizably similar tomore » observations, despite the complex interaction of processes involved in the problem, many of which are parameterized or poorly resolved. Some models simulate the regional low cloud cover well, though many models underestimate MBL (marine boundary layer) depth near the coast. Most models qualitatively simulate the observed offshore gradients of SO2, sulfate aerosol, CCN (cloud condensation nuclei) concentration in the MBL as well as differences in concentration between the MBL and the free troposphere. Most models also qualitatively capture the decrease in cloud droplet number away from the coast. However, there are large quantitative intermodel differences in both means and gradients of these quantities. Many models are able to represent episodic offshore increases in cloud droplet number and aerosol concentrations associated with periods of offshore flow. Most models underestimate CCN (at 0.1% supersaturation) in the MBL and free troposphere. The GCMs also have difficulty simulating coastal gradients in CCN and cloud droplet number concentration near the coast. The overall performance of the models demonstrates their potential utility in simulating aerosol–cloud interactions in the MBL, though quantitative estimation of aerosol–cloud interactions and aerosol indirect effects of MBL clouds

  10. Global and regional modeling of clouds and aerosols in the marine boundary layer during VOCALS: the VOCA intercomparison

    SciTech Connect

    Wyant, M. C.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Wood, Robert; Carmichael, Gregory; Clarke, A. D.; Fast, Jerome D.; George, R.; Gustafson, William I.; Hannay, Cecile; Lauer, Axel; Lin, Yanluan; Morcrette, J. -J.; Mulcahay, Jane; Saide, Pablo; Spak, S. N.; Yang, Qing

    2015-01-09

    A diverse collection of models are used to simulate the marine boundary layer in the southeast Pacific region during the period of the October–November 2008 VOCALS REx (VAMOS Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study Regional Experiment) field campaign. Regional models simulate the period continuously in boundary-forced free-running mode, while global forecast models and GCMs (general circulation models) are run in forecast mode. The models are compared to extensive observations along a line at 20° S extending westward from the South American coast. Most of the models simulate cloud and aerosol characteristics and gradients across the region that are recognizably similar to observations, despite the complex interaction of processes involved in the problem, many of which are parameterized or poorly resolved. Some models simulate the regional low cloud cover well, though many models underestimate MBL (marine boundary layer) depth near the coast. Most models qualitatively simulate the observed offshore gradients of SO2, sulfate aerosol, CCN (cloud condensation nuclei) concentration in the MBL as well as differences in concentration between the MBL and the free troposphere. Most models also qualitatively capture the decrease in cloud droplet number away from the coast. However, there are large quantitative intermodel differences in both means and gradients of these quantities. Many models are able to represent episodic offshore increases in cloud droplet number and aerosol concentrations associated with periods of offshore flow. Most models underestimate CCN (at 0.1% supersaturation) in the MBL and free troposphere. The GCMs also have difficulty simulating coastal gradients in CCN and cloud droplet number concentration near the coast. The overall performance of the models demonstrates their potential utility in simulating aerosol–cloud interactions in the MBL, though quantitative estimation of aerosol–cloud interactions and aerosol indirect effects of MBL

  11. On the effects of evaluation decisions in model-data intercomparisons: An example using CMIP5 evapotranspiration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwalm, C. R.; Huntzinger, D. N.; Michalak, A. M.; Fisher, J. B.; Kimball, J. S.; Mueller, B.; Zhang, K.; Zhang, Y.

    2012-12-01

    A central challenge for the 21st Century is to understand and forecast the impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. Given the scarcity of direct observations and the need to integrate first-order knowledge of system dynamics across disparate scales, such efforts are primarily model-based. Confidence in the skill of climate models to simulate future climatic states is however linked to how well these same frameworks simulate the past climate system. The process of systematically comparing data-driven references with climate model output fields, termed "benchmarking", can inform model development and allows for the quantification of retrospective model-data mismatch. Such comparisons require the analyst to make several evaluation decisions, the meta-parameters of benchmarking. Here we vary five such evaluation choices: (1) reference product; (2) spatial resolution; (3) regridding algorithm; (4) land-water mask; and (5) time period in a full factorial design. We calculate correlation and root mean square error in time and space using simulated evapotranspiration from eight IPCC AR5 models run with the esmHistorical experiment. All combinations of meta-parameter and climate model yield 68,700 benchmarking experiments and allow an assessment of meta-parameter impact on inferred model skill. Model skill spans high and low levels of model-data agreement across all models, reference products and skill metrics at both global and sub-global scales. We find that scoring systems based on scalar values can be misleading and we strongly advocate that analysts report skill as a probability density function. We also find that the range in model skill is primarily related to choice of reference data such that further work in developing community-accepted standard reference datasets with rigorous quality control and uncertainty quantification is a crucial step toward decreasing the ambiguity in model skill.

  12. Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (ACCMIP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevenson, D. S.; Young, P. J.; Naik, V.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Shindell, D. T.; Voulgarakis, A.; Skeie, R. B.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Myhre, G.; Berntsen, T. K.; Folberth, G. A.; Rumbold, S. T.; Collins, W. J.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Doherty, R. M.; Zeng, G.; van Noije, T. P. C.; Strunk, A.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Plummer, D. A.; Strode, S. A.; Horowitz, L.; Lee, Y. H.; Szopa, S.; Sudo, K.; Nagashima, T.; Josse, B.; Cionni, I.; Righi, M.; Eyring, V.; Conley, A.; Bowman, K. W.; Wild, O.

    2012-10-01

    Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). We calculate a~value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 0.40 W m-2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (±1 standard deviation) in RFs of ±17%. Three different radiation schemes were used - we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of ±10%. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of ±3%. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of ±30% for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (47%), nitrogen oxides (29%), carbon monoxide (15%) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9%); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 0.042 W m-2 DU-1, a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (W m-2; relative to 1850 - add 0.04 W m-2 to make relative to 1750) for the Representative Concentration Pathways in 2030 (2100) of: RCP2.6: 0.31 (0.16); RCP4.5: 0.38 (0.26); RCP6.0: 0.33 (0.24); and RCP8.5: 0.42 (0.56). Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the tropical lower troposphere, associated with increases in water vapour; and increases in the sub-tropical to mid-latitude upper troposphere, associated with increases in lightning and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport.

  13. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

  14. An intercomparison study of tropospheric NO2 columns retrieved from MAX-DOAS and simulated by regional air quality models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blechschmidt, Anne-Marlene

    2016-04-01

    Tropospheric NO2 is hazardous to human health and can lead to tropospheric ozone formation, eutrophication of ecosystems and acid rain production. It is therefore very important to accurately observe and simulate tropospheric NO2 on a regional and global scale. In the present study, MAX-DOAS tropospheric NO2 column retrievals from three European measurement stations are applied for validation of a regional model ensemble. In general, there is a good agreement between simulated and retrieved NO2 column values for individual MAX-DOAS measurements, indicating that the model ensemble does well represent the emission and tropospheric chemistry of NOx. However, the model ensemble tends to overestimate low and underestimate high tropospheric NO2 column values, respectively. Pollution transport towards the stations is on average well represented by the models. However, large differences can be found for individual pollution plumes. Seasonal cycles are overestimated by the model ensemble, which could point to problems in simulating photochemistry. While weekly cycles are reproduced well by the models, model performance is rather poor for diurnal cycles. In particular, simulated morning rush hour peaks are not confirmed by MAX-DOAS retrievals, which may result from inappropriate hourly scaling of NOx emissions, possibly combined with errors in chemistry. Our results demonstrate that a large number of validation points are available from MAX-DOAS data, which should therefore be used more extensively in future regional air quality modelling studies.

  15. Preliminary ice shelf-ocean simulation results from idealized standalone-ocean and coupled model intercomparison projects (MIPs)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asay-Davis, Xylar; Martin, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    The second Ice Shelf-Ocean MIP (ISOMIP+) and the first Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean MIP (MISOMIP1) prescribe a set of idealized experiments for ocean models with ice-shelf cavities and coupled ice sheet-ocean models, respectively. ISOMIP+ and MISOMIP1 were designed together with the third Marine Ice Sheet MIP (MISMIP+) with three main goals, namely that the MIPs should provide: a controlled forum for researchers to compare their model results with those from other models during model development. a path for testing components in the process of developing coupled ice sheet-ocean models. a basic setup from which a large variety of parameter and process studies can usefully be performed. The experimental design for the three MIPs is currently under review in Geoscientific Model Development (Asay-Davis et al. 2015, doi:10.5194/gmdd-8-9859-2015). We present preliminary results from ISOMIP+ and MISOMIP1 experiments using several ocean-only and coupled ice sheet-ocean models. Among ocean models, we show that differences in model behavior are significant enough that similar results can only be achieved by tuning model parameters (e.g. boundary-layer transfer coefficients, drag coefficients, vertical mixing parameterizations) for each models. This tuning is constrained by a desired mean melt rate in quasi-steady state under specified forcing conditions, akin to how models would be tuned based on observations for non-idealized simulations. We also present a number of parameter studies based the MIP experiments. Again, using several models, we show that melt rates respond sub-linearly to both changes in the square root of the drag coefficient and the heat-transfer coefficient, and that melting is relatively insensitive to horizontal-mixing coefficients (perhaps because the resolution is sufficient to permit eddies) but more sensitive to vertical-mixing coefficients. We show that the choice of the equation of state (linear or nonlinear) does not have a significant impact as long as

  16. An Assessment of Possible Climate Change in the Australian Region Based on an Intercomparison of General Circulation Modeling Results.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whetton, P. H.; Rayner, P. J.; Pittock, A. B.; Haylock, M. R.

    1994-03-01

    To assist in estimating likely future climate change in the Australian region, the authors examine the results of four different general circulation modeling experiments run to assess the equilibrium impact of doubling greenhouse gases. The results examined were the most recent available at the time of study from various research centers in North America and Europe, as well as those of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). The approach used is, first, to assess the quality of the control ( 1 × C02) simulations from each of the models of mean sea level (MSL) pressure and precipitation in the Australian region by comparing these with the corresponding observed patterns; and, second, to then analyze the 2 × C02 results of only those model experiments with the best control simulations. Of the models examined two are chosen on the basis of their simulation of current climate in the region: the CSIRO four-level model (CSIR04) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) model. For conditions of equivalent doubling of C02, both models show substantial increases in surface air temperature of around 4°-6° inland and 2°-4°C in coastal regions. Both models show decreased MSL pressure over the Australian continent and increases in rainfall over northern, central, and eastern Australia, particularly in the summer half of the year. The CSIR04 model, but not the UKMO model, also shows increased pressure to the south of the continent and decreased winter rainfall in southwest and southern Australia. Generally, field significance tests show the pattern and magnitude of the changes to be significant for CSIR04 (for which the necessary monthly simulated data were available).

  17. Development of an Integrated Agricultural Planning Model Considering Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santikayasa, I. P.

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this study is to develop an agriculture planning model in order to sustain the future water use under the estimation of crop water requirement, water availability and future climate projection. For this purpose, the Citarum river basin which is located in West Java - Indonesia is selected as the study area. Two emission scenarios A2 and B2 were selected. For the crop water requirement estimation, the output of HadCM3 AOGCM is statistically downscale using SDSM and used as the input for WEAP model developed by SEI (Stockholm Environmental Institute). The reliability of water uses is assessed by comparing the irrigation water demand and the water allocation for the irrigation area. The water supply resources are assessed using the water planning tool. This study shows that temperature and precipitation over the study area are projected to increase in the future. The water availability was projected to increase under both A2 and B2 emission scenarios in the future. The irrigation water requirement is expected to decrease in the future under A2 and B2 scenarios. By comparing the irrigation water demand and water allocation for irrigation, the reliability of agriculture water use is expected to change in the period of 2050s and 2080s while the reliability will not change in 2020s. The reliability under A2 scenario is expected to be higher than B2 scenario. The combination of WEAP and SDSM is significance to use in assessing and allocating the water resources in the region.

  18. Inter-comparison of energy balance and hydrological models for land surface energy flux estimation over a whole river catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guzinski, R.; Nieto, H.; Stisen, S.; Fensholt, R.

    2015-04-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is the main link between the natural water cycle and the land surface energy budget. Therefore water-balance and energy-balance approaches are two of the main methodologies for modelling this process. The water-balance approach is usually implemented as a complex, distributed hydrological model, while the energy-balance approach is often used with remotely sensed observations of, for example, the land surface temperature (LST) and the state of the vegetation. In this study we compare the catchment-scale output of two remote sensing models based on the two-source energy-balance (TSEB) scheme, against a hydrological model, MIKE SHE, calibrated over the Skjern river catchment in western Denmark. The three models utilize different primary inputs to estimate ET (LST from different satellites in the case of remote sensing models and modelled soil moisture and heat flux in the case of the MIKE SHE ET module). However, all three of them use the same ancillary data (meteorological measurements, land cover type and leaf area index, etc.) and produce output at similar spatial resolution (1 km for the TSEB models, 500 m for MIKE SHE). The comparison is performed on the spatial patterns of the fluxes present within the catchment area as well as on temporal patterns on the whole catchment scale in 8-year long time series. The results show that the spatial patterns of latent heat flux produced by the remote sensing models are more similar to each other than to the fluxes produced by MIKE SHE. The temporal patterns produced by the remote sensing and hydrological models are quite highly correlated (r ≈ 0.8). This indicates potential benefits to the hydrological modelling community of integrating spatial information derived through remote sensing methodology (contained in the ET maps derived with the energy-balance models, satellite based LST or another source) into the hydrological models. How this could be achieved and how to evaluate the improvements, or

  19. Possible future projection of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) with the evaluation of model performance in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parth Sarthi, P.; Ghosh, Soumik; Kumar, Praveen

    2015-06-01

    The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is crucial for agriculture and water resources in India. The large spatial and temporal variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) leads to flood and drought especially over northern plains of India, so quantitative and qualitative assessment of future projected rainfall will be important for policy framework. Evaluation of models performance in simulating rainfall and wind circulation of the Historical experiment (1961-2005) and its future projected change in RCPs (2006-2050) 4.5 and 8.5 in CMIP5 are carried out. In the Historical experiment, the model simulated rainfall is validated with observed rainfall of IMD (1961-2005) and GPCP (1979-2005) and only six (6) models BCC-CSM1.1(m), CCSM4, CESM1(BGC), CESM1(CAM5), CESM1(WACCM), and MPI-ESM-MR are found suitable in capturing ISMR and JJAS wind circulation at 850 & 200 hPa as in NCEP reanalysis, which shows anticyclonic circulation over Arabian Sea at 850 hPa and cyclonic circulation at 200 hPa along with excess and deficit rainfall over monsoon regions of NWI, NEI, WCI, CNI and PI at 99% & 95% confidence levels. Future projected change of JJAS wind shows anticyclonic circulation over Arabian Sea at 850 hPa and cyclonic circulation around 40° N,70°E-90°E at 200 hPa which may be a possible cause of changes in JJAS rainfall over Indian regions.

  20. Intercomparison and Evaluation of Global Aerosol Microphysical Properties among AeroCom Models of a Range of Complexity

    SciTech Connect

    Mann, G. W.; Carslaw, K. S.; Reddington, C. L.; Pringle, K. J.; Schulz, M.; Asmi, A.; Spracklen, D. V.; Ridley, D. A.; Woodhouse, M. T.; Lee, L. A.; Zhang, Kai; Ghan, Steven J.; Easter, Richard C.; Liu, Xiaohong; Stier, P.; Lee, Y. H.; Adams, P. J.; Tost, H.; Lelieveld, J.; Bauer, S.; Tsigaridis, Kostas; van Noije, T.; Strunk, A.; Vignati, E.; Bellouin, N.; Dalvi, M.; Johnson, C. E.; Bergman, T.; Kokkola, H.; Von Salzen, Knut; Yu, Fangqun; Luo, Gan; Petzold, A.; Heintzenberg, J.; Clarke, A. D.; Ogren, J. A.; Gras, J.; Baltensperger, Urs; Kaminski, U.; Jennings, S. G.; O'Dowd, C. D.; Harrison, R. M.; Beddows, D. C.; Kulmala, M.; Viisanen, Y.; Ulevicius, V.; Mihalopoulos, Nikos; Zdimal, V.; Fiebig, M.; Hansson, H. C.; Swietlicki, E.; Henzing, J. S.

    2014-05-13

    Many of the next generation of global climate models will include aerosol schemes which explicitly simulate the microphysical processes that determine the particle size distribution. These models enable aerosol optical properties and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations to be determined by fundamental aerosol processes, which should lead to a more physically based simulation of aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcings. This study examines the global variation in particle size distribution simulated by twelve global aerosol microphysics models to quantify model diversity and to identify any common biases against observations. Evaluation against size distribution measurements from a new European network of aerosol supersites shows that the mean model agrees quite well with the observations at many sites on the annual mean, but there are some seasonal biases common to many sites. In particular, at many of these European sites, the accumulation mode number concentration is biased low during winter and Aitken mode concentrations tend to be overestimated in winter and underestimated in summer. At high northern latitudes, the models strongly underpredict Aitken and accumulation particle concentrations compared to the measurements, consistent with previous studies that have highlighted the poor performance of global aerosol models in the Arctic. In the marine boundary layer, the models capture the observed meridional variation in the size distribution, which is dominated by the Aitken mode at high latitudes, with an increasing concentration of accumulation particles with decreasing latitude. Considering vertical profiles, the models reproduce the observed peak in total particle concentrations in the upper troposphere due to new particle formation, although modelled peak concentrations tend to be biased high over Europe. Overall, the results suggest that most global aerosol microphysics models simulate the global variation of the particle size distribution

  1. Evaluation Case Studies and Intercomparison with Regional Climate Model Simulations based on the DUE PERMAFROST Circumpolar Remote Sensing Service for Permafrost

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heim, Birgit; Bartsch, Annett; Elger, Kirsten; Rinke, Annette; Matthes, Heidrun; Zhou, Xu; Klehmet, Katharina; Buchhorn, Marcel; Duguay, Claude

    2014-05-01

    -derived products for inter-comparison experiments. Within the REKLIM framework, the geophysical surface parameters simulated by regional climate models (RCMs) are spatio-temporally compared with the EO-derived products. Investigated products consist of those generated during the DUE Permafrost project as well as products from ESA DUE GlobSnow (Snow Extent and Snow Water Equivalent, Global Snow Monitoring for Climate Research, 2008-2011) and the MODIS albedo product (MOD 43). We compared the simulated fields of surface temperature and frozen/unfrozen ground state simulated by RCMs HIRHAM (circum-Arctic domain) and COSMO-CLM (Central Siberia) with the same fields derived from satellite remote sensing.

  2. ESA Data User Element DUE PERMAFROST Circumpolar Remote Sensing Service for Permafrost - Evaluation Case Studies and Intercomparison with Regional Climate Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heim, Birgit; Bartsch, Annett; Elger, Kirsten; Rinke, Annette; Matthes, Heidrun; Zhou, Xu; Klehmet, Katharina; Rockel, Burkhardt; Lantuit, Hugues; Duguay, Claude

    2015-04-01

    initiated the use of EO-derived products for inter-comparison experiments. Within the REKLIM framework, the geophysical surface parameters simulated by regional climate models (RCMs) are spatio-temporally compared with the EO-derived products. Investigated products consist of those generated during the DUE Permafrost project as well as products from ESA DUE GlobSnow (Snow Extent and Snow Water Equivalent, Global Snow Monitoring for Climate Research, 2008-2011) and the MODIS albedo product (MOD 43). We compared the simulated fields of surface temperature and frozen/unfrozen ground state simulated by RCMs HIRHAM (circum-Arctic domain) and COSMO-CLM (Central Siberia) with the same fields derived from satellite remote sensing.

  3. Evaluation of preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Y. H.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Flanner, M. G.; Jiao, C.; Shindell, D. T.; Bernsten, T.; Bisiaux, M. M.; Cao, J.; Collins, W. J.; Curran, M.; Edwards, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, S.; Horowitz, L. W.; McConnell, J. R.; Ming, J.; Myhre, G.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S. T.; Skeie, R. B.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Thevenon, F.; Xu, B.; Yoon, J.-H.

    2013-01-01

    As part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against observations including 12 ice core records, long-term surface mass concentrations, and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using offline models with prescribed meteorology from 1996-2000. We evaluate the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations using the recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, the global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology: 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However, the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day increases by 2.5-3 times with little variation among models, roughly matching the 2.5-fold increase in total BC emissions during the same period.We find a large divergence among models at both Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC surface mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Ispra. However, the models fail to predict the Arctic BC seasonality due to severe underestimations during winter and spring. The simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2-3 of the BC snowpack measurements except for Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. For the ice core evaluation, models tend to adequately capture both the observed temporal trends and the magnitudes at Greenland sites. However, models fail to predict the decreasing trend of BC depositions/ice core concentrations from the 1950s to the 1970s in most Tibetan Plateau ice cores. The distinct temporal trend at the Tibetan Plateau ice cores

  4. Site-level model intercomparison of high latitude and high altitude soil thermal dynamics in tundra and barren landscapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ekici, A.; Chadburn, S.; Chaudhary, N.; Hajdu, L. H.; Marmy, A.; Peng, S.; Boike, J.; Burke, E.; Friend, A. D.; Hauck, C.; Krinner, G.; Langer, M.; Miller, P. A.; Beer, C.

    2015-07-01

    Modeling soil thermal dynamics at high latitudes and altitudes requires representations of physical processes such as snow insulation, soil freezing and thawing and subsurface conditions like soil water/ice content and soil texture. We have compared six different land models: JSBACH, ORCHIDEE, JULES, COUP, HYBRID8 and LPJ-GUESS, at four different sites with distinct cold region landscape types, to identify the importance of physical processes in capturing observed temperature dynamics in soils. The sites include alpine, high Arctic, wet polygonal tundra and non-permafrost Arctic, thus showing how a range of models can represent distinct soil temperature regimes. For all sites, snow insulation is of major importance for estimating topsoil conditions. However, soil physics is essential for the subsoil temperature dynamics and thus the active layer thicknesses. This analysis shows that land models need more realistic surface processes, such as detailed snow dynamics and moss cover with changing thickness and wetness, along with better representations of subsoil thermal dynamics.

  5. ARM/GCSS/SPARC TWP-ICE CRM Intercomparison Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fridlind, Ann; Ackerman, Andrew; Petch, Jon; Field, Paul; Hill, Adrian; McFarquhar, Greg; Xie, Shaocheng; Zhang, Minghua

    2010-01-01

    Specifications are provided for running a cloud-resolving model (CRM) and submitting results in a standardized format for inclusion in a n intercomparison study and archiving for public access. The simulated case study is based on measurements obtained during the 2006 Tropical Warm Pool - International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) led by the U. S. department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. The modeling intercomparison study is based on objectives developed in concert with the Stratospheric Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) program and the GEWEX cloud system study (GCSS) program. The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) is a core project of the World Climate Research PRogramme (WCRP).

  6. Intercomparison of Model Simulations of the Impact of 1997/98 El Nino on South American Summer Monsoon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhou, Jiayu; Lau, K.-M.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The simulations of climatology and response of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) to the 1997/98 El Nino are investigated using six atmospheric general circulation models. Results show all models simulate the large-scale features of the SASM reasonably well. However, both stationary and seasonal components of the surface pressure are overestimated, resulting in an excessively strong SASM in the model climatology. The low-level northwesterly jet over eastern foothills of the Andes is not well resolved because of the coarse resolution of the models. Large rainfall simulation biases are found in association with the Andes and the Atlantic ITCZ, indicating model problems in handling steep mountains and parameterization of convective processes. The simulation of the 1997/98 El Nino impact on SASM is examined based on an ensemble of ten two-year (September 1996 - August 1998) integration. Results show that most models can simulate the large-scale tropospheric warming response over the tropical central Pacific, including the dynamic response of Rossby wave propagation of the Pacific-South America (PSA) pattern that influences remote areas. Deficiencies are found in simulating the regional impacts over South America. Model simulation fails to capture the southeastward expansion of anomalously warm tropospheric air. As a result, the upper tropospheric anomalous high over the subtropical Andes is less pronounced, and the enhancement of subtropical westerly jet is displaced 5deg-10deg equatorward compared to the observed. Over the Amazon basin, the shift of Walker cell induced by El Nino is not well represented, showing anomalous easterlies in both upper and lower troposphere.

  7. Agricultural Education Early Field Experience through the Lens of the EFE Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smalley, Scott W.; Retallick, Michael S.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this national study was to describe agricultural teacher education early field experience (EFE) practices using the EFE model. The population for this study was all agricultural education teacher preparation programs (N = 83) listed in the AAAE Directory of University Faculty in Agricultural Education. Data were collected via an…

  8. First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble

    PubMed Central

    Dankers, Rutger; Arnell, Nigel W.; Clark, Douglas B.; Falloon, Pete D.; Fekete, Balázs M.; Gosling, Simon N.; Heinke, Jens; Kim, Hyungjun; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-01-01

    Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20–45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydrograph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5–30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies. PMID:24344290

  9. Intercomparison of observations and model aerosol parameters during two Saharan dust events over the southern United Kingdom

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buxmann, Joelle; Adam, Mariana; Ordonez, Carlos; Tilbee, Marie; Smyth, Tim; Claxton, Bernard; Sugier, Jacqueline; Agnew, Paul

    2015-04-01

    Saharan desert dust lifted by convection over the hot desert surface can reach high altitudes and be transported over great distances. In the UK, Saharan dust episodes occur several times a year, usually during the spring. Dust lifted by cyclonic circulation is often blown into the Atlantic and transported to the UK. This can result in a rapid degradation of air quality due to the increase in the levels of particulate matter (PM). The ability to model the transport and deposition of dust remains an important challenge in order to characterize different pollution events. We present a comparison of observed Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) with modelled AOD from the Met Office Air Quality Unified Model (AQUM), performed for two dust events in March 2014 (at 380nm, 440nm, 870nm and 1020nm). The observations are derived from five sun photometers located in the southern UK at Exeter, Cardington, Bayfordbury, Chilbolton, and Plymouth. Correlations are investigated between model column integrated PM2.5 and PM10, and observed fine and coarse mode AOD from AERONET. Vertical profiles of attenuated backscatter and extinction from the Jenoptik Nimbus ceilometers part of the Met Office Laser Cloud Base Recorder (LCBR) network are investigated as well (see also session AS3.17/GI2.2 Lidar and Applications). The Met Office air quality model AQUM is an on-line meteorology, chemistry and aerosol modelling system. It runs at a resolution of 12km over a domain covering the UK and north-western Europe. Atmospheric composition modelling employs two-way coupling between aerosol and chemistry evolution, with explicit modelling of sulphate, nitrate, black carbon, organic carbon, biomass burning and wind-blown mineral dust aerosol components. Both the model and observations show an increase in AOD during the first period from 12 -13 March 2014. For example AOD levels of up to 0.52 for the 380nm channel were recorded by the sun photometer in Exeter. This is relatively high compared to average

  10. The future of the subsurface chlorophyll-a maximum in the Canada Basin—A model intercomparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steiner, N. S.; Sou, T.; Deal, C.; Jackson, J. M.; Jin, M.; Popova, E.; Williams, W.; Yool, A.

    2016-01-01

    Six Earth system models and three ocean-ice-ecosystem models are analyzed to evaluate magnitude and depth of the subsurface Chl-a maximum (SCM) in the Canada Basin and ratio of surface to subsurface Chl-a in a future climate scenario. Differences in simulated Chl-a are caused by large intermodel differences in available nitrate in the Arctic Ocean and to some extent by ecosystem complexity. Most models reproduce the observed SCM and nitracline deepening and indicate a continued deepening in the future until the models reach a new state with seasonal ice-free waters. Models not representing a SCM show either too much nitrate and hence no surface limitation or too little nitrate with limited surface growth only. The models suggest that suppression of the nitracline and deepening of the SCM are caused by enhanced stratification, likely driven by enhanced Ekman convergence and freshwater contributions with primarily large-scale atmospheric driving mechanisms. The simulated ratio of near-surface Chl-a to depth-integrated Chl-a is slightly decreasing in most areas of the Arctic Ocean due to enhanced contributions of subsurface Chl-a. Exceptions are some shelf areas and regions where the continued ice thinning leaves winter ice too thin to provide a barrier to momentum fluxes, allowing winter mixing to break up the strong stratification. Results confirm that algorithms determining vertically integrated Chl-a from surface Chl-a need to be tuned to Arctic conditions, but likely require little or no adjustments in the future.

  11. Modelling and measuring the spectral bidirectional reflectance factor of snow-covered sea ice: an intercomparison study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Shusun; Zhou, Xiaobing

    2004-12-01

    Broadband albedo is a very important geophysical parameter in the Earth surface-atmosphere interaction in either global climate change or hydrological cycle and snowmelt runoff studies. To derive the broadband albedo accurately from satellite optical sensor observation at limited bands and at a single observation angle, the bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) has to be specified quantitatively. In the present albedo derivation algorithms from the satellite radiance data, the BRF is either modelled or observed. Questions may arise as to how well a BRF model can be in the broadband albedo derivation. To help answer such questions, we studied the performance of a snow-surface BRF model for two specific cases under large solar zenith angles (65° and 85°). We measured snow-surface spectral directional reflectance under clear skies. The snow physical properties, such as snow grain size and snow density, at the same sites were also measured. In situ snow physical data are used to simulate the snow-surface BRF and hemispherical directional reflectance factor (HDRF) through a multilayered azimuth- and zenith-dependent plane-parallel radiative transfer model. The field measurements and BRF and HDRF simulations all reveal the forward-scattering nature of snow surface under large solar incidence angles, but the BRF model results depict the strongest forward-scattering patterns under such solar zenith angles. Because the HDRF is simulated through coupling of the surface BRF with radiative transfer in the atmosphere, the resulting HDRF patterns agree with the field measurements better than the simulated BRF does. The deviation of the simulated HDRF from field-based clear-sky directional reflectance (FCDR) is within +/-10% for the central (viewing zenith angle <45° ) and lateral sides of the viewing hemisphere. This level of agreement between the simulated HDRF and FCDR also implies that the simulated BRF model can provide remote-sensing estimates of spectral albedo

  12. Monitoring and modeling agricultural drought for famine early warning (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verdin, J. P.; Funk, C.; Budde, M. E.; Lietzow, R.; Senay, G. B.; Smith, R.; Pedreros, D.; Rowland, J.; Artan, G. A.; Husak, G. J.; Michaelsen, J.; Adoum, A.; Galu, G.; Magadzire, T.; Rodriguez, M.

    2009-12-01

    The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) makes quantitative estimates of food insecure populations, and identifies the places and periods during which action must be taken to assist them. Subsistence agriculture and pastoralism are the predominant livelihood systems being monitored, and they are especially drought-sensitive. At the same time, conventional climate observation networks in developing countries are often sparse and late in reporting. Consequently, remote sensing has played a significant role since FEWS NET began in 1985. Initially there was heavy reliance on vegetation index imagery from AVHRR to identify anomalies in landscape greenness indicative of drought. In the latter part of the 1990s, satellite rainfall estimates added a second, independent basis for identification of drought. They are used to force crop water balance models for the principal rainfed staple crops in twenty FEWS NET countries. Such models reveal seasonal moisture deficits associated with yield reduction on a spatially continuous basis. In 2002, irrigated crops in southwest Asia became a concern, and prompted the implementation of a gridded energy balance model to simulate the seasonal mountain snow pack, the main source of irrigation water. MODIS land surface temperature data are also applied in these areas to directly estimate actual seasonal evapotranspiration on the irrigated lands. The approach reveals situations of reduced irrigation water supply and crop production due to drought. The availability of MODIS data after 2000 also brought renewed interest in vegetation index imagery. MODIS NDVI data have proven to be of high quality, thanks to significant spectral and spatial resolution improvements over AVHRR. They are vital to producing rapid harvest assessments for drought-impacted countries in Africa and Asia. The global food crisis that emerged in 2008 has led to expansion of FEWS NET monitoring to over 50 additional countries. Unlike previous practice, these

  13. Preindustrial to Present-Day Changes in Tropospheric Hydroxyl Radical and Methane Lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Naik, V.; Voulgarakis, A.; Fiore, A. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Lin, M.; Prather, M. J.; Young, P. J.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Collins, W. J.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Doherty, R.; Eyring, V.; Faluvegi, G.; Folberth, G. A.; Josse, B.; Lee, Y. H.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Nagashima, T.; vanNoije, T. P. C.; Plummer, D. A.; Righi, M.; Rumbold, S. T.; Skeie, R.; Shindell, D. T.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

    2013-01-01

    We have analysed time-slice simulations from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), to explore changes in present-day (2000) hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration and methane (CH4) lifetime relative to preindustrial times (1850) and to 1980. A comparison of modeled and observation-derived methane and methyl chloroform lifetimes suggests that the present-day global multi-model mean OH concentration is overestimated by 5 to 10% but is within the range of uncertainties. The models consistently simulate higher OH concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with the Southern Hemisphere (SH) for the present-day (2000; inter-hemispheric ratios of 1.13 to 1.42), in contrast to observation-based approaches which generally indicate higher OH in the SH although uncertainties are large. Evaluation of simulated carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations, the primary sink for OH, against ground-based and satellite observations suggests low biases in the NH that may contribute to the high north–south OH asymmetry in the models. The models vary widely in their regional distribution of present-day OH concentrations (up to 34%). Despite large regional changes, the multi-model global mean (mass-weighted) OH concentration changes little over the past 150 yr, due to concurrent increases in factors that enhance OH (humidity, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, and UV radiation due to decreases in stratospheric ozone), compensated by increases in OH sinks (methane abundance, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC) emissions). The large inter-model diversity in the sign and magnitude of preindustrial to present-day OH changes (ranging from a decrease of 12.7% to an increase of 14.6%) indicate that uncertainty remains in our understanding of the long-term trends in OH and methane lifetime. We show that this diversity is largely explained by the different ratio of the

  14. Site-level model intercomparison of high latitude and high altitude soil thermal dynamics in tundra and barren landscapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ekici, A.; Chadburn, S.; Chaudhary, N.; Hajdu, L. H.; Marmy, A.; Peng, S.; Boike, J.; Burke, E.; Friend, A. D.; Hauck, C.; Krinner, G.; Langer, M.; Miller, P. A.; Beer, C.

    2014-09-01

    Modelling soil thermal dynamics at high latitudes and altitudes requires representations of specific physical processes such as snow insulation, soil freezing/thawing, as well as subsurface conditions like soil water/ice content and soil texture type. We have compared six different land models (JSBACH, ORCHIDEE, JULES, COUP, HYBRID8, LPJ-GUESS) at four different sites with distinct cold region landscape types (i.e. Schilthorn-Alpine, Bayelva-high Arctic, Samoylov-wet polygonal tundra, Nuuk-non permafrost Arctic) to quantify the importance of physical processes in capturing observed temperature dynamics in soils. This work shows how a range of models can represent distinct soil temperature regimes in permafrost and non-permafrost soils. Snow insulation is of major importance for estimating topsoil conditions and must be combined with accurate subsoil temperature dynamics to correctly estimate active layer thicknesses. Analyses show that land models need more realistic surface processes (such as detailed snow dynamics and moss cover with changing thickness/wetness) as well as better representations of subsoil thermal dynamics (i.e. soil heat transfer mechanism and correct parameterization of heat conductivity/capacities).

  15. A model inter-comparison study of forest growth on two coastal and boreal forest landscapes in Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernier, P. Y.; Wang, Z.; Grant, R. F.; Arain, A.; Chen, B.; Chen, J.; Coops, N.; Govind, A.; Guindon, L.; Hember, R.; Kurz, W. A.; Peng, C.; Price, D. T.; Stinson, G.; Sun, J.; Trofymow, J. A.

    2009-05-01

    Projection of carbon stocks in Canada is presently accomplished using CBM-CFS3, an inventory-based model. We have performed a comparison exercise among 6 process-based models of forest growth (Can-IBIS, INTEC, ECOSYS, 3PG, TRIPLEX, CN-CLASS) and CBM-CFS3 as part of an effort to better capture inter-annual climate variability in the carbon accounting of Canada's forests. Comparisons were made on multi-decadal simulations for a Pacific Coastal Douglas-fir forest (2500ha, Oyster River, British Columbia) and a Boreal Black Spruce forest (3825ha, Chibougamau, Quebec). Models were initiated using reconstructions of forest composition and biomass from 1920 (Oyster River, OR) and 1928 (Chibougamau, CH), followed by transition to current forest composition as derived from recent forest inventories (OR 1999, CH 1998). Forest management events and natural disturbances over the simulation period were provided as maps and disturbance impacts on a number of carbon pools were simulated using the same transfer coefficients parameters as CBM-CFS3. Simulations were conducted from 1920 to 2006 for OR, and from 1928 to 1998 for CH. For CH, final above-ground tree biomass in 1998 was also extracted from the independent forest inventory. The coastal OR area initially contained about four times more ecosystem C than the boreal CH area. CBM- CFS3 simulations suggest a decline in ecosystem carbon by about 200 Mg C ha-1, dominated by a loss of biomass and woody debris C, over the 86-year period in OR as the entire area transitioned from coastal old- growth to second growth conditions. In CH, a smaller proportion of the area was affected by management and the CBM-CFS3 estimated a small net increase in total ecosystem C of about 11 Mg C ha-1 over 70 years, almost all attributed to increased biomass. Changes in tree biomass at CH were 10% less than estimates derived by difference between successive inventories. The source of this small simulation bias is attributable to the underlying growth

  16. TransCom N2O model inter-comparison - Part 2: Atmospheric inversion estimates of N2O emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, R. L.; Ishijima, K.; Saikawa, E.; Corazza, M.; Karstens, U.; Patra, P. K.; Bergamaschi, P.; Chevallier, F.; Dlugokencky, E.; Prinn, R. G.; Weiss, R. F.; O'Doherty, S.; Fraser, P. J.; Steele, L. P.; Krummel, P. B.; Vermeulen, A.; Tohjima, Y.; Jordan, A.; Haszpra, L.; Steinbacher, M.; Van der Laan, S.; Aalto, T.; Meinhardt, F.; Popa, M. E.; Moncrieff, J.; Bousquet, P.

    2014-06-01

    This study examines N2O emission estimates from five different atmospheric inversion frameworks based on chemistry transport models (CTMs). The five frameworks differ in the choice of CTM, meteorological data, prior uncertainties and inversion method but use the same prior emissions and observation data set. The posterior modelled atmospheric N2O mole fractions are compared to observations to assess the performance of the inversions and to help diagnose problems in the modelled transport. Additionally, the mean emissions for 2006 to 2008 are compared in terms of the spatial distribution and seasonality. Overall, there is a good agreement among the inversions for the mean global total emission, which ranges from 16.1 to 18.7 TgN yr-1 and is consistent with previous estimates. Ocean emissions represent between 31 and 38% of the global total compared to widely varying previous estimates of 24 to 38%. Emissions from the northern mid- to high latitudes are likely to be more important, with a consistent shift in emissions from the tropics and subtropics to the mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere; the emission ratio for 0-30° N to 30-90° N ranges from 1.5 to 1.9 compared with 2.9 to 3.0 in previous estimates. The largest discrepancies across inversions are seen for the regions of South and East Asia and for tropical and South America owing to the poor observational constraint for these areas and to considerable differences in the modelled transport, especially inter-hemispheric exchange rates and tropical convective mixing. Estimates of the seasonal cycle in N2O emissions are also sensitive to errors in modelled stratosphere-to-troposphere transport in the tropics and southern extratropics. Overall, the results show a convergence in the global and regional emissions compared to previous independent studies.

  17. Intercomparison of planetary boundary layer parameterizations in the WRF Model for a case study in Houston/Texas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cuchiara, G. C.; Rappenglück, B.

    2013-05-01

    A realistic simulation of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) structure and its evolution is critical for regional modeling of meteorology and air quality. Conversely, poor accuracy in the simulated physical properties often leads to degraded meteorological and air quality prognostic skills. With over 6 million inhabitants the Houston metropolitan area is the fourth-largest metropolitan area in the United States. Located in southeast Texas this region frequently exceeds the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone. Our study employed the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to quantify meteorological prediction differences produced by three widely used PBL schemes and compared the results to observational data. Two non-local PBL schemes were evaluated, the Yonsei University (YSU) and Asymmetric Convective Model version 2 (ACM2), and one local PBL scheme, the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) scheme. The WRF model is configured with two domains: the coarse domain has a 98 x 70 mesh with horizontal resolution of 30 km covering the south of United States, the nested domain has a 118 x 103 mesh of 10 km horizontal grid spacing covering the Houston-Galveston area in Texas. All model domains have 28 vertical levels, 10 of those in the lowermost 2 km above the surface. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Eta 40km is used for the initial and boundary conditions. Three 36h forecasts, one for each PBL scheme, were run. The first 12h of each simulation are treated as spinup, and the remaining 24h are used for the evaluation. Simulated vertical profiles for temperature, potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and the u-v components of the wind were compared to measurements collected during the Second Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS-II) Radical and Aerosol Measurements Project (TRAMP) experiment in summer 2006. The vertical sounding experiment site was located on the University of Houston campus (UH), approximately 4 km southwest of

  18. Daily temperature changes and variability in ENSEMBLES regional models predictions: Evaluation and intercomparison for the Ebro Valley (NE Iberia)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El Kenawy, A.; López-Moreno, J. I.; McCabe, M. F.; Brunsell, N. A.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.

    2015-03-01

    We employ a suite of regional climate models (RCMs) to assess future changes in summer (JJA) maximum temperature (Tmax) over the Ebro basin, the largest hydrological division in the Iberian Peninsula. Under the A1B emission scenario, future changes in both mean values and their corresponding time varying percentiles were examined by comparing the control period (1971-2000) with two future time slices: 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Here, the rationale is to assess how lower/upper tails of temperature distributions will change in the future and whether these changes will be consistent with those of the mean. The model validation results demonstrate significant differences among the models in terms of their capability to representing the statistical characteristics (e.g., mean, skewness and asymmetry) of the observed climate. The results also indicate that the current substantial warming observed in the Ebro basin is expected to continue during the 21st century, with more intense warming occurring at higher altitudes and in areas with greater distance from coastlines. All models suggest that the region will experience significant positive changes in both the cold and warm tails of temperature distributions. However, the results emphasize that future changes in the lower and upper tails of the summer Tmax distribution may not follow the same warming rate as the mean condition. In particular, the projected changes in the warm tail of the summer Tmax are shown to be significantly larger than changes in both mean values and the cold tail, especially at the end of the 21st century. The finding suggests that much of the changes in the summer Tmax percentiles will be driven by a shift in the entire distribution of temperature rather than only changes in the central tendency. Better understanding of the possible implications of future climate systems provides information useful for vulnerability assessments and the development of local adaptation strategies for multi

  19. Studies of HT and HTO Behavior in the Vicinity of Long-Term Emission Source: Model - Experiment Intercomparison

    SciTech Connect

    Golubev, A. V.; Aleinikov, A. Y.; Golubeva, V. N.; Khabibulin, M. M.; Glagolev, M. V.; Misatyuk, S. E.; Mavrin, S. V.; Belot, Y. A.; Raskob, W.; Tate, P. J.

    2003-02-24

    There are presented in the research results of HT and HTO deposition and the model of HT (HTO) atmosphere concentration in the vicinity of a long-term HT and HTO emission source. Scavenging of HTO by precipitations was studied in 6 field experiments. The site of the scavenging experiments was around a 30 m emission source. The sampling arcs were chosen at 150-300 m from the base of the source to minimize dry deposition on the precipitation collectors. Data of the scavenging experiments are presented. Kinetics of HT deposition to soil through its oxidation has been studied in laboratory conditions. The activity of HTO converted in the soil sample during a certain period of time was used to determine the oxidation rate. This rate varies, depending on the catalytic and/or biological activity of the soil material. Theoretical considerations have shown that the deposition rate can be expressed by the effective rate of oxidation, which formally corresponds to the first-order HT oxidation. HT deposition rates are reported. The model, used for assessments, takes into account atmospheric dispersion, deposition and reemission. The model of HTO wet deposition is taken into account kinetics of HTO exchange between vapor and liquid phase with parameters such as rain drop spectra, rain intensity, condensation-evaporation on drop's interface. Gauss type formulae for continuous emission source is used to calculate HTO atmospheric concentration. Meteorological data are used as input parameters for modeling. The data presented on HT deposition to soil and HTO washout by precipitation is required for assessment of consequences of HT (HTO) release into the atmosphere.

  20. Inter-comparison of model-simulated and satellite-retrieved componential aerosol optical depths in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Shenshen; Yu, Chao; Chen, Liangfu; Tao, Jinhua; Letu, Husi; Ge, Wei; Si, Yidan; Liu, Yang

    2016-09-01

    China's large aerosol emissions have major impacts on global climate change as well as regional air pollution and its associated disease burdens. A detailed understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of aerosol components is necessary for the calculation of aerosol radiative forcing and the development of effective emission control policy. Model-simulated and satellite-retrieved aerosol components can support climate change research, PM2.5 source appointment and epidemiological studies. This study evaluated the total and componential aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the GEOS-Chem model (GC) and the Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART), and the Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) from 2006 to 2009 in China. Linear regression analysis between the GC and AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) in China yielded similar correlation coefficients (0.6 daily, 0.71 monthly) but lower slopes (0.41 daily, 0.58 monthly) compared with those in the U.S. This difference was attributed to GC's underestimation of water-soluble AOD (WAOD) west of the Heihe-Tengchong Line, the dust AOD (DAOD) in the fall and winter, and the soot AOD (SAOD) throughout the year and throughout the country. GOCART exhibits the strongest dust estimation capability among all datasets. However, the GOCART soot distribution in the Northeast and Southeast has significant errors, and its WAOD in the polluted North China Plain (NCP) and the South is underestimated. MISR significantly overestimates the water-soluble aerosol levels in the West, and does not capture the high dust loadings in all seasons and regions, and the SAOD in the NCP. These discrepancies can mainly be attributed to the uncertainties in the emission inventories of both models, the poor performance of GC under China's high aerosol loading conditions, the omission of certain aerosol tracers in GOCART, and the tendency of MISR to misidentify dust and non-dust mixtures.

  1. Intercomparison of oil spill prediction models for accidental blowout scenarios with and without subsea chemical dispersant injection.

    PubMed

    Socolofsky, Scott A; Adams, E Eric; Boufadel, Michel C; Aman, Zachary M; Johansen, Øistein; Konkel, Wolfgang J; Lindo, David; Madsen, Mads N; North, Elizabeth W; Paris, Claire B; Rasmussen, Dorte; Reed, Mark; Rønningen, Petter; Sim, Lawrence H; Uhrenholdt, Thomas; Anderson, Karl G; Cooper, Cortis; Nedwed, Tim J

    2015-07-15

    We compare oil spill model predictions for a prototype subsea blowout with and without subsea injection of chemical dispersants in deep and shallow water, for high and low gas-oil ratio, and in weak to strong crossflows. Model results are compared for initial oil droplet size distribution, the nearfield plume, and the farfield Lagrangian particle tracking stage of hydrocarbon transport. For the conditions tested (a blowout with oil flow rate of 20,000 bbl/d, about 1/3 of the Deepwater Horizon), the models predict the volume median droplet diameter at the source to range from 0.3 to 6mm without dispersant and 0.01 to 0.8 mm with dispersant. This reduced droplet size owing to reduced interfacial tension results in a one to two order of magnitude increase in the downstream displacement of the initial oil surfacing zone and may lead to a significant fraction of the spilled oil not reaching the sea surface. PMID:26021288

  2. Simulation of particle diversity and mixing state over Greater Paris: a model-measurement inter-comparison.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Shupeng; Sartelet, Karine N; Healy, Robert M; Wenger, John C

    2016-07-18

    Air quality models are used to simulate and forecast pollutant concentrations, from continental scales to regional and urban scales. These models usually assume that particles are internally mixed, i.e. particles of the same size have the same chemical composition, which may vary in space and time. Although this assumption may be realistic for continental-scale simulations, where particles originating from different sources have undergone sufficient mixing to achieve a common chemical composition for a given model grid cell and time, it may not be valid for urban-scale simulations, where particles from different sources interact on shorter time scales. To investigate the role of the mixing state assumption on the formation of particles, a size-composition resolved aerosol model (SCRAM) was developed and coupled to the Polyphemus air quality platform. Two simulations, one with the internal mixing hypothesis and another with the external mixing hypothesis, have been carried out for the period 15 January to 11 February 2010, when the MEGAPOLI winter field measurement campaign took place in Paris. The simulated bulk concentrations of chemical species and the concentrations of individual particle classes are compared with the observations of Healy et al. (Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2013, 13, 9479-9496) for the same period. The single particle diversity and the mixing-state index are computed based on the approach developed by Riemer et al. (Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2013, 13, 11423-11439), and they are compared to the measurement-based analyses of Healy et al. (Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2014, 14, 6289-6299). The average value of the single particle diversity, which represents the average number of species within each particle, is consistent between simulation and measurement (2.91 and 2.79 respectively). Furthermore, the average value of the mixing-state index is also well represented in the simulation (69% against 59% from the measurements). The spatial distribution of the mixing

  3. DUE PERMAFROST: A Circumpolar Remote Sensing Service for Permafrost - Evaluation Case Studies and Intercomparison with Regional Climate Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heim, Birgit; Bartsch, Annett; Elger, Kirsten; Rinke, Annette; Klehmet, Katharina; Matthes, Heidrun; Gellhorn, Catrin; Buchhorn, Marcel; Soliman, Aiman; Duguay, Claude

    2013-04-01

    The ESA Data User Element (DUE) Permafrost project provides a Circumpolar remote sensing service for permafrost-related applications. The data products are freely downloadable (http://www.ipf.tuwien.ac.at/permafrost) and published at the PANGAEA World Data Centre (DUE Permafrost Project Consortium, 2012). Remote sensing products are land surface temperature, surface soil moisture, ground frozen/non frozen state, terrain parameters, land cover parameters, and surface waters. Snow parameters (snow extent and snow water equivalent) can be derived from the DUE project GlobSnow (http://www.globsnow.info). The time series of Circumpolar land surface temperature and surface soil moisture offer weekly and monthly averaged data products from 2007 to 2010, Circumpolar ground frozen/non frozen state is provided as daily dataset. The ongoing service will also include the time series of 2011 and 2012. The Circumpolar terrain and land cover products are static, e.g. the first Circumpolar Digital Elevation Model (DEM) north of 55° N with a spatial resolution of 100 m (S. Maurizio & T. Strozzi, 2012). Evaluation is crucial to test the scientific validity of the DUE Permafrost data products for high-latitude permafrost landscapes. The primary programme providing ground data is the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) initiated by the International Permafrost Association (IPA) in the 1990s. The involvement of scientific stakeholders and the IPA, and the ongoing evaluation of the remote sensing derived products make the DUE Permafrost products widely accepted by the scientific community. Evaluation case studies of DUE Permafrost remote-sensing derived products (e.g., land surface temperature and ground frozen/non frozen state) show good agreement with ground data from GTN-P monitoring sites in Alaska and Siberia. The Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM (Regionale Klimaänderungen/Regional climate change) is a climate research program where regional observations and

  4. Evaluation and intercomparison of meteorological predictions by five MM5-PBL parameterizations in combination with three land-surface models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Zhiwei; Ueda, Hiromasa; An, Junling

    In this study, MM5 predictions with five PBL parameterizations in combination with three land-surface models (LSMs) are intercompared and evaluated by using a wide variety of observations derived from WMO routine surface weather stations, TRACE-P aircraft experiments, intense radiosonde soundings and satellite measurements. Six scenarios with various PBL schemes and LSMs are designed to investigate the similarities and differences in model predictions. For near-surface variables, all scenarios yield good correlation between prediction and observation for 2 m-temperature (T2) and 2 m-water vapor mixing ratio (Q2), and relatively poor ones for wind fields. On average, T2 was consistently underpredicted by all scenarios, whereas Q2 was overpredicted by five of the six scenarios. It is found that the application of Noah land-surface model instead of the five-layer soil model is able to enhance the prediction accuracy of Q2. For 10 m-wind speed, the GSE scenario (Gayno-Seaman scheme with the five-layer soil model) produces somewhat smaller correlation, but better consistency in magnitude than those of the other scenarios. Model predictions are more consistent for upper air as a result of using FDDA reanalysis nudging and the reducing influence of underlying surface with altitude. All scenarios show the tendencies to underpredict temperature and to overpredict wind speed at altitudes <1 km and to underpredict wind speed at altitudes >3 km. The correlations for water vapor mixing ratio are much smaller at altitudes >3 km than that in the boundary layer. The differences in predicted PBL height among scenarios are large. GSE scenario performs best for phase (correlation), whereas PCX scenario (Pleim-Chang scheme with Pleim-Xiu LSM) produces the best statistics for magnitude of PBL height. Diurnal variation of PBL height over the western Pacific region during the study period is characterized by the typical day and night cycling superimposed by occasional expansion

  5. Application of WRF/Chem over East Asia: Part I. Model evaluation and intercomparison with MM5/CMAQ

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yang; Zhang, Xin; Wang, Litao; Zhang, Qiang; Duan, Fengkui; He, Kebin

    2016-01-01

    In this work, the application of the online-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF/Chem) version 3.3.1 is evaluated over East Asia for January, April, July, and October 2005 and compared with results from a previous application of an offline model system, i.e., the Mesoscale Model and Community Multiple Air Quality modeling system (MM5/CMAQ). The evaluation of WRF/Chem is performed using multiple observational datasets from satellites and surface networks in mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan. WRF/Chem simulates well specific humidity (Q2) and downward longwave and shortwave radiation (GLW and GSW) with normalized mean biases (NMBs) within 24%, but shows moderate to large biases for temperature at 2-m (T2) (NMBs of -9.8% to 75.6%) and precipitation (NMBs of 11.4-92.7%) for some months, and wind speed at 10-m (WS10) (NMBs of 66.5-101%), for all months, indicating some limitations in the YSU planetary boundary layer scheme, the Purdue Lin cloud microphysics, and the Grell-Devenyi ensemble scheme. WRF/Chem can simulate the column abundances of gases reasonably well with NMBs within 30% for most months but moderately to significantly underpredicts the surface concentrations of major species at all sites in nearly all months with NMBs of -72% to -53.8% for CO, -99.4% to -61.7% for NOx, -84.2% to -44.5% for SO2, -63.9% to -25.2% for PM2.5, and -68.9% to 33.3% for PM10, and aerosol optical depth in all months except for October with NMBs of -38.7% to -16.2%. The model significantly overpredicts surface concentrations of O3 at most sites in nearly all months with NMBs of up to 160.3% and NO3- at the Tsinghua site in all months. Possible reasons for large underpredictions include underestimations in the anthropogenic emissions of CO, SO2, and primary aerosol, inappropriate vertical distributions of emissions of SO2 and NO2, uncertainties in upper boundary conditions (e.g., for O3 and CO), missing or inaccurate model representations (e

  6. A GIS-based hedonic price model for agricultural land

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demetriou, Demetris

    2015-06-01

    Land consolidation is a very effective land management planning approach that aims towards rural/agricultural sustainable development. Land reallocation which involves land tenure restructuring is the most important, complex and time consuming component of land consolidation. Land reallocation relies on land valuation since its fundamental principle provides that after consolidation, each landowner shall be granted a property of an aggregate value that is approximately the same as the value of the property owned prior to consolidation. Therefore, land value is the crucial factor for the land reallocation process and hence for the success and acceptance of the final land consolidation plan. Land valuation is a process of assigning values to all parcels (and its contents) and it is usually carried out by an ad-hoc committee. However, the process faces some problems such as it is time consuming hence costly, outcomes may present inconsistency since it is carried out manually and empirically without employing systematic analytical tools and in particular spatial analysis tools and techniques such as statistical/mathematical. A solution to these problems can be the employment of mass appraisal land valuation methods using automated valuation models (AVM) based on international standards. In this context, this paper presents a spatial based linear hedonic price model which has been developed and tested in a case study land consolidation area in Cyprus. Results showed that the AVM is capable to produce acceptable in terms of accuracy and reliability land values and to reduce time hence cost required by around 80%.

  7. TransCom N2O model inter-comparison, Part II: Atmospheric inversion estimates of N2O emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, R. L.; Ishijima, K.; Saikawa, E.; Corazza, M.; Karstens, U.; Patra, P. K.; Bergamaschi, P.; Chevallier, F.; Dlugokencky, E.; Prinn, R. G.; Weiss, R. F.; O'Doherty, S.; Fraser, P. J.; Steele,